WorldWideScience

Sample records for 21st-century climate change

  1. 21st Century Climate Change in the European Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobiet, Andreas; Kotlarski, Sven; Stoffel, Markus; Heinrich, Georg; Rajczak, Jan; Beniston, Martin

    2014-05-01

    The Alps are particularly sensitive to global warming and warmed twice as much as the global average in the recent past. In addition, the Alps and its surroundings are a densly populated areas where society is affected by climate change in many ways, which calls for reliable estimates of future climate change. However, the complex Alpine region poses considerable challenges to climate models, which translate to uncertainties in future climate projections. Against this background, the present study reviews the state-of-knowledge about 21st century climate change in the Alps based on existing literature and additional analyses. It will be demonstrated that considerable and accelerating changes are not only to be expected with regard to temperature, but also precipitation, global radiation, relative humidity, and closely related impacts like floods, droughts, snow cover, and natural hazards will be effected by global warming. Under the A1B emission scenario, about 0.25 °C warming per decade until the mid of the 21st century and accelerated 0.36 °C warming per decade in the second half of the century is expected. Warming will most probably be associated with changes in the seasonality of precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity. More intense precipitation extremes and flooding potential are particularly expected in the colder part of the year. The conditions of currently record breaking warm or hot winter or summer seasons, respectively, may become normal at the end of the 21st century, and there is indication for droughts to become more severe in the future. Snow cover is expected to drastically decrease below 1500 - 2000 m and natural hazards related to glacier and permafrost retreat are expected to become more frequent. Such changes in climatic variables and related quantities will have considerable impact on ecosystems and society and will challenge their adaptive capabilities. Acknowledgements: This study has been initiated and is partly funded by

  2. Projections of Climate Change over China for the 21st Century

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LUO Yong; ZHAO Zongci; XU Ying; GAO Xuejie; DING Yihui

    2005-01-01

    The projections of climate changes in China for the 21st century by about 40 climate scenarios and multi-model ensembles have been investigated in this research. All the models with the different scenarios project a warming of 1.2℃ to 9.2℃ in China by the end of 21st century. Most of the projections point show the increasing of precipitation in China for the 21st century.

  3. Climate change may restrict dryland forest regeneration in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrie, M.D.; Bradford, John B.; Hubbard, R.M.; Lauenroth, W.K.; Andrews, Caitlin; Schlaepfer, D.R.

    2017-01-01

    The persistence and geographic expansion of dryland forests in the 21st century will be influenced by how climate change supports the demographic processes associated with tree regeneration. Yet, the way that climate change may alter regeneration is unclear. We developed a quantitative framework that estimates forest regeneration potential (RP) as a function of key environmental conditions for ponderosa pine, a key dryland forest species. We integrated meteorological data and climate projections for 47 ponderosa pine forest sites across the western United States, and evaluated RP using an ecosystem water balance model. Our primary goal was to contrast conditions supporting regeneration among historical, mid-21st century and late-21st century time frames. Future climatic conditions supported 50% higher RP in 2020–2059 relative to 1910–2014. As temperatures increased more substantially in 2060–2099, seedling survival decreased, RP declined by 50%, and the frequency of years with very low RP increased from 25% to 58%. Thus, climate change may initially support higher RP and increase the likelihood of successful regeneration events, yet will ultimately reduce average RP and the frequency of years with moderate climate support of regeneration. Our results suggest that climate change alone may begin to restrict the persistence and expansion of dryland forests by limiting seedling survival in the late 21st century.

  4. 21st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engler, R.; Randin, C.F.; Thuiller, W.

    2011-01-01

    Continental-scale assessments of 21st century global impacts of climate change on biodiversity have forecasted range contractions for many species. These coarse resolution studies are, however, of limited relevance for projecting risks to biodiversity in mountain systems, where pronounced microcl...

  5. Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, David S.; Fahey, David W.; Forster, Piers M.; Newton, Peter J.; Wit, Ron C.N.; Lim, Ling L.; Owen, Bethan; Sausen, Robert

    2009-01-01

    Aviation emissions contribute to the radiative forcing (RF) of climate. Of importance are emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), aerosols and their precursors (soot and sulphate), and increased cloudiness in the form of persistent linear contrails and induced-cirrus cloudiness. The recent Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) quantified aviation’s RF contribution for 2005 based upon 2000 operations data. Aviation has grown...

  6. CLIMATE CHANGE: THE MAJOR THREAT OF THE 21ST CENTURY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Bazylevych

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available We consider important aspects of Kyiv climate change because of natural influences (growing population and level of household consumption accompanied with mounting volumes of waste and anthropogenic factors (shrinking forests and green spaces, inefficient use of natural resources, increased use of fossil fuels, uneconomical use of energy and water for production and business activities, outdated production technology. The study exposes major negative effects of the climate change, examines the dynamics of trends and the relationship among population growth, consumption of energy resources, emissions of substances to air and waste production in Kyiv during 2000-2013. The environmental conditions in the city are under careful examination and compared with the environmental situation in the largest European capitals. The key scientific and methodological, organizational, economic, technological steps are outlined in the context of Ukraine's integration into the European economic space to counteract climate change in Kyiv.

  7. Climate change in Mediterranean mountains during the 21st century

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogués Bravo, David; Araújo, Miguel B; Lasanta, Teodoro

    2008-01-01

    Mediterranean mountain biomes are considered endangered due to climate change that affects directly or indirectly different key features (biodiversity, snow cover, glaciers, run-off processes, and water availability). Here, we provide an assessment of temperature, precipitation, and spring...... precipitation changes in Mediterranean mountains under different emission scenarios (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) and Atmosphere-Ocean-Coupled General Circulation Models for two periods: 2055 (2040-2069 period) and 2085 (2070-2099). Finally, the future climate trends projected for Mediterranean...... mountains are compared with those trends projected for non-Mediterranean European mountain ranges. The range of projected warming varies between +1.4 degrees C and 5.1 degrees C for 2055 (+1.6 degrees C and +8.3 degrees C for 2085). Climate models also project a reduction of precipitation, mainly during...

  8. Climate change in Mediterranean mountains during the 21st century

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogués Bravo, David; Araújo, Miguel B; Lasanta, Teodoro;

    2008-01-01

    spring (-17% under Alfi and -4.8% under B1 for 2085). On the contrary, non-Mediterranean European mountains will not experience a reduction of annual and spring precipitation. Implications of predicted climate change for both human and physical features are coupled in an integrated framework to gain...

  9. 21st century change in ocean response to climate forcing

    CERN Document Server

    Marčelja, Stjepan

    2015-01-01

    Modeling globally averaged information on climate forcing from the land surface temperature data, the sea surface temperatures (SST) and the empirically determined relationship between the changes in SST and the turbulent diffusion of heat into the upper ocean demonstrates a consistent link. The modeling is accurate throughout the 20th century despite the different phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) or the strong divergence between land and ocean surface warming. It only fails during the last 15 years when SST drops well below the trend. The finding reinforces the view that slower global warming over the previous 15 years is not a caused by a negative phase of the IPO or by the variations in the upper ocean (top 700 m) warming but results from a change in the ocean behavior leading to increased heat transfer into the deeper ocean.

  10. 21st century climate change in the European Alps--a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobiet, Andreas; Kotlarski, Sven; Beniston, Martin; Heinrich, Georg; Rajczak, Jan; Stoffel, Markus

    2014-09-15

    Reliable estimates of future climate change in the Alps are relevant for large parts of the European society. At the same time, the complex Alpine region poses considerable challenges to climate models, which translate to uncertainties in the climate projections. Against this background, the present study reviews the state-of-knowledge about 21st century climate change in the Alps based on existing literature and additional analyses. In particular, it explicitly considers the reliability and uncertainty of climate projections. Results show that besides Alpine temperatures, also precipitation, global radiation, relative humidity, and closely related impacts like floods, droughts, snow cover, and natural hazards will be affected by global warming. Under the A1B emission scenario, about 0.25 °C warming per decade until the mid of the 21st century and accelerated 0.36 °C warming per decade in the second half of the century is expected. Warming will probably be associated with changes in the seasonality of precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity, and more intense precipitation extremes and flooding potential in the colder part of the year. The conditions of currently record breaking warm or hot winter or summer seasons, respectively, may become normal at the end of the 21st century, and there is indication for droughts to become more severe in the future. Snow cover is expected to drastically decrease below 1500-2000 m and natural hazards related to glacier and permafrost retreat are expected to become more frequent. Such changes in climatic parameters and related quantities will have considerable impact on ecosystems and society and will challenge their adaptive capabilities. © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhen; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Stenke, Andrea; Li, Xin; Hodson, Elke L; Zhu, Gaofeng; Huang, Chunlin; Poulter, Benjamin

    2017-09-05

    Wetland methane (CH4) emissions are the largest natural source in the global CH4 budget, contributing to roughly one third of total natural and anthropogenic emissions. As the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere after CO2, CH4 is strongly associated with climate feedbacks. However, due to the paucity of data, wetland CH4 feedbacks were not fully assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The degree to which future expansion of wetlands and CH4 emissions will evolve and consequently drive climate feedbacks is thus a question of major concern. Here we present an ensemble estimate of wetland CH4 emissions driven by 38 general circulation models for the 21st century. We find that climate change-induced increases in boreal wetland extent and temperature-driven increases in tropical CH4 emissions will dominate anthropogenic CH4 emissions by 38 to 56% toward the end of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6). Depending on scenarios, wetland CH4 feedbacks translate to an increase in additional global mean radiative forcing of 0.04 W·m(-2) to 0.19 W·m(-2) by the end of the 21st century. Under the "worst-case" RCP8.5 scenario, with no climate mitigation, boreal CH4 emissions are enhanced by 18.05 Tg to 41.69 Tg, due to thawing of inundated areas during the cold season (December to May) and rising temperature, while tropical CH4 emissions accelerate with a total increment of 48.36 Tg to 87.37 Tg by 2099. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider mitigation of wetland CH4 feedbacks to maintain average global warming below 2 °C.

  12. 21st century climate change in the European Alps—A review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gobiet, Andreas, E-mail: andreas.gobiet@uni-graz.at [Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Brandhofgasse 5, 8010 Graz (Austria); Kotlarski, Sven, E-mail: sven.kotlarski@env.ethz.ch [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland); Beniston, Martin, E-mail: martin.beniston@unige.ch [Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Site de Battelle − Bâtiment D, 7, route de Drize − 1227 Carouge, Geneva (Switzerland); Heinrich, Georg, E-mail: g.heinrich@uni-graz.at [Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Brandhofgasse 5, 8010 Graz (Austria); Rajczak, Jan, E-mail: jan.rajczak@env.ethz.ch [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland); Stoffel, Markus, E-mail: markus.stoffel@unige.ch [Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Site de Battelle − Bâtiment D, 7, route de Drize − 1227 Carouge, Geneva (Switzerland)

    2014-09-15

    Reliable estimates of future climate change in the Alps are relevant for large parts of the European society. At the same time, the complex Alpine region poses considerable challenges to climate models, which translate to uncertainties in the climate projections. Against this background, the present study reviews the state-of-knowledge about 21st century climate change in the Alps based on existing literature and additional analyses. In particular, it explicitly considers the reliability and uncertainty of climate projections. Results show that besides Alpine temperatures, also precipitation, global radiation, relative humidity, and closely related impacts like floods, droughts, snow cover, and natural hazards will be affected by global warming. Under the A1B emission scenario, about 0.25 °C warming per decade until the mid of the 21st century and accelerated 0.36 °C warming per decade in the second half of the century is expected. Warming will probably be associated with changes in the seasonality of precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity, and more intense precipitation extremes and flooding potential in the colder part of the year. The conditions of currently record breaking warm or hot winter or summer seasons, respectively, may become normal at the end of the 21st century, and there is indication for droughts to become more severe in the future. Snow cover is expected to drastically decrease below 1500–2000 m and natural hazards related to glacier and permafrost retreat are expected to become more frequent. Such changes in climatic parameters and related quantities will have considerable impact on ecosystems and society and will challenge their adaptive capabilities. - Highlights: • Warming is expected to accelerate throughout the 21st century in the Alpine region. • Seasonal shifts in precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity are expected. • Precipitation and temperature extremes are expected to intensify. • Snow cover

  13. A Study of the Climate Change during 21st Century over Peninsular Malaysia Watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavvas, M. L.; Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

    2016-12-01

    15 coarse-resolution (150 - 300 km) climate projections for the 21st century by 3 different coupled land-atmosphere-ocean GCMs (ECHAM5 of the Max Planck Institute of Meteorology of Germany, CCSM3 of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) of the United States, and MRI-CGCM2.3.2 of the Meteorological Research Institute of Japan) under 4 different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (B1, A1B, A2, A1FI) were dynamically downscaled at hourly intervals by a regional hydro-climate model of Peninsular Malaysia (RegHCM-PM) that consisted of Regional Atmospheric Model MM5 that was coupled with WEHY watershed hydrology model over Peninsular Malaysia (PM), at the scale of the hillslopes of 13 selected watersheds (Batu Pahat, Johor, Muda, Kelang, Kelantan, Linggi, Muar, Pahang, Perak, Selangor, Dungun, Kemaman and Kuantan) and 12 selected intervening coastal regions in order to assess the impact of climate change on the climate conditions at the selected watersheds and coastal regions of PM. From the downscaled climate projections it can be concluded that the mean annual precipitation gradually increases toward the end of the 21st century over each of the 13 watersheds and the 12 coastal regions. The basin-average mean annual temperature increases in the range of 2.50C - 2.950C over PM during the 2010 -2100 period when compared to the 1970-2000 historical period. The ensemble average basin-average annual potential evapotranspiration increases gradually throughout the 21st century over all watersheds.

  14. Climate change and malaria risk in the European part of Russia in 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shartova, N.; Malkhazova, S.

    2009-04-01

    The purpose of this research is development of prognostic model of malaria risk for European part of Russia (EPR) in the 21st century according to climate scenario IPCC "A2". The following issues have been formulated to reach the goal of the research: define the basic epidemiological parameters describing malaria situation and methods of data processing; creating of maps of malaria risk; analysis of changes in malaria distribution for predictable future climate conditions in comparison with conditions of a modern climate. A lot of reasons (biological, social and economic) impact on malaria distribution. Nevertheless, incubation period of the parasite first of all depends on temperature. This is a primary factor that defines a potential area of infection, ability and specificity to transmit malaria. According to this, the model is based on the relationship between climate (average daily temperature) and the intensity of malaria transmission. The object of research is malaria parasite Plasmodium vivax, which has for Russia (particularly for EPR) the greatest importance because it has the lowest minimal temperature threshold for development. Climate data is presented by daily average temperatures of air for three analyzed periods. 1961 -1989 describes a modern climate and corresponds to the minimum 30-year period that is necessary for an assessment of climate and changes connected with biotic components. Prognostic malaria model is based on predicted daily average temperatures for 2046-2065 (the middle of century) and 2089-2100 (the end of century). All data sets for EPR are presented in the grid 2x2. The conclusion on possible changes in malaria distribution and transmission in the middle and the end of the 21st century: There is going to be the increase of duration of effective temperatures period (period when parasite development is possible), period of effective susceptibility to infection of mosquitoes (period when malaria transmission cycle is possible); shift

  15. Climate change and malaria risk in Russia in 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malkhazova, S.; Shartova, N.

    2010-09-01

    The purpose of this research is development of prognostic model of malaria risk for Russia in the 21st century according to climate scenario IPCC "А2". The following issues have been formulated to reach the goal of the research: - define the basic epidemiological parameters describing malaria situation and methods of data processing; - creating of maps of malaria risk; - analysis of changes in malaria distribution for predictable future climate conditions in comparison with conditions of a modern climate. A lot of reasons (biological, social and economic) impact on malaria distribution. Nevertheless, incubation period of the parasite first of all depends on temperature. This is a primary factor that defines a potential area of infection, ability and specificity to transmit malaria. According to this, the model is based on the relationship between climate (average daily temperature) and the intensity of malaria transmission. The object of research is malaria parasite Plasmodium vivax, which has for Russia the greatest importance because it has the lowest minimal temperature threshold for development. Climate data is presented by daily average temperatures of air for three analyzed periods. 1961 -1989 describes a modern climate and corresponds to the minimum 30-year period that is necessary for an assessment of climate and changes connected with biotic components. Prognostic malaria model is based on predicted daily average temperatures for 2046-2065 (the middle of century) and 2089-2100 (the end of century). All data sets are presented in the grid 2х20. The conclusion on possible changes in malaria distribution and transmission in the middle and the end of the 21st century: There is going to be the increase of duration of effective temperatures period (period when parasite development is possible), period of effective susceptibility to infection of mosquitoes (period when malaria transmission cycle is possible); shift of the beginning of malaria transmission

  16. Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Schlosser, Adam; Scott, Jeffery; Gao, Xiang

    2013-12-01

    We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three-dimensional atmospheric model, and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for four major sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections, climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate), natural variability, and structural uncertainty. The results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also find that different initial conditions lead to differences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider these sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia.

  17. Projected Changes in Kppen Climate Types in the 21st Century over China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI Ying; GAO Xue-Jie; WU Jia

    2012-01-01

    Future changes in the climate regimes over China as measured by the Kppen climate classification are reported in this paper. The analysis is based on a high-resolution climate change simulation conducted by a regional climate model (the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) RegCM3) driven by the global model of Center for Climate System Research (CCSR)/National Institute for Environment Studies (NIES)/Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) MIROC3.2_hires (the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. Validation of the model performances is presented first. The results show that RegCM3 reproduces the present-day distribution of the Kppen climate types well. Significant changes of the types are found in the future over China, following the simulated warming and precipitation changes. In southern China, the change is characterized by the replacement of subtropical humid (Cr) by subtropical winter-dry (Cw). A pronounced decrease of the cold climate types is found over China, e.g., tundra (Ft) over the Tibetan Plateau and sub-arctic continental (Ec) over northeast China. The changes are usually greater in the end compared with the middle of the 21st century.

  18. Global priority conservation areas in the face of 21st century climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junsheng Li

    Full Text Available In an era when global biodiversity is increasingly impacted by rapidly changing climate, efforts to conserve global biodiversity may be compromised if we do not consider the uneven distribution of climate-induced threats. Here, via a novel application of an aggregate Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI that combines changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation with changes in their interannual variability, we assess multi-dimensional climate changes across the "Global 200" ecoregions - a set of priority ecoregions designed to "achieve the goal of saving a broad diversity of the Earth's ecosystems" - over the 21(st century. Using an ensemble of 62 climate scenarios, our analyses show that, between 1991-2010 and 2081-2100, 96% of the ecoregions considered will be likely (more than 66% probability to face moderate-to-pronounced climate changes, when compared to the magnitudes of change during the past five decades. Ecoregions at high northern latitudes are projected to experience most pronounced climate change, followed by those in the Mediterranean Basin, Amazon Basin, East Africa, and South Asia. Relatively modest RCCI signals are expected over ecoregions in Northwest South America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, yet with considerable uncertainties. Although not indicative of climate-change impacts per se, the RCCI-based assessment can help policy-makers gain a quantitative and comprehensive overview of the unevenly distributed climate risks across the G200 ecoregions. Whether due to significant climate change signals or large uncertainties, the ecoregions highlighted in the assessment deserve special attention in more detailed impact assessments to inform effective conservation strategies under future climate change.

  19. Global priority conservation areas in the face of 21st century climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Junsheng; Lin, Xin; Chen, Anping; Peterson, Townsend; Ma, Keping; Bertzky, Monika; Ciais, Philippe; Kapos, Valerie; Peng, Changhui; Poulter, Benjamin

    2013-01-01

    In an era when global biodiversity is increasingly impacted by rapidly changing climate, efforts to conserve global biodiversity may be compromised if we do not consider the uneven distribution of climate-induced threats. Here, via a novel application of an aggregate Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) that combines changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation with changes in their interannual variability, we assess multi-dimensional climate changes across the "Global 200" ecoregions - a set of priority ecoregions designed to "achieve the goal of saving a broad diversity of the Earth's ecosystems" - over the 21(st) century. Using an ensemble of 62 climate scenarios, our analyses show that, between 1991-2010 and 2081-2100, 96% of the ecoregions considered will be likely (more than 66% probability) to face moderate-to-pronounced climate changes, when compared to the magnitudes of change during the past five decades. Ecoregions at high northern latitudes are projected to experience most pronounced climate change, followed by those in the Mediterranean Basin, Amazon Basin, East Africa, and South Asia. Relatively modest RCCI signals are expected over ecoregions in Northwest South America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, yet with considerable uncertainties. Although not indicative of climate-change impacts per se, the RCCI-based assessment can help policy-makers gain a quantitative and comprehensive overview of the unevenly distributed climate risks across the G200 ecoregions. Whether due to significant climate change signals or large uncertainties, the ecoregions highlighted in the assessment deserve special attention in more detailed impact assessments to inform effective conservation strategies under future climate change.

  20. The role of HFCs in mitigating 21st century climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Xu

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available There is growing international interest in mitigating climate change during the early part of this century by reducing emissions of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs, in addition to reducing emissions of CO2. The SLCPs include methane (CH4, black carbon aerosols (BC, tropospheric ozone (O3 and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs. Recent studies have estimated that by mitigating emissions of CH4, BC, and O3 using available technologies, about 0.5 to 0.6 °C warming can be avoided by mid-21st century. Here we show that avoiding production and use of high-GWP (global warming potential HFCs by using technologically feasible low-GWP substitutes to meet the increasing global demand can avoid as much as another 0.5 °C warming by the end of the century. This combined mitigation of SLCPs would cut the cumulative warming since 2005 by 50% at 2050 and by 60% at 2100 from the CO2-only mitigation scenarios, significantly reducing the rate of warming and lowering the probability of exceeding the 2 °C warming threshold during this century.

  1. 21st Century changes in snow climate in Northern Europe: a high-resolution view from ENSEMBLES regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raeisaenen, Jouni [Department of Physics, P.O. Box 48 (Erik Palmenin aukio 1), University of Helsinki (Finland); Eklund, Joonas [Department of Physics, P.O. Box 48 (Erik Palmenin aukio 1), University of Helsinki (Finland); Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503 (Erik Palmenin aukio 1), Helsinki (Finland)

    2012-06-15

    Changes in snow amount in northern Europe are analysed from 11 regional model simulations of 21st century climate under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B scenario. These high-resolution models collectively indicate a future decrease in the water equivalent of the snow pack (SWE). Although winter precipitation increases, this is insufficient to compensate for the increased fraction of liquid precipitation and increased snowmelt caused by higher temperatures. The multi-model mean results suggest a slight increase in March mean SWE only locally in mountains of northern Sweden, and even there, snow is reduced earlier in winter and later in spring. The nature of the changes remains the same throughout the 21st century, but their magnitude increases with time as the greenhouse gas forcing grows larger. The geographical patterns of the change support the physically intuitive view that snow is most vulnerable to warming in areas with relatively mild winter climate. A similar relationship emerges when comparing the 11 simulations with each other: the ratio between the relative SWE decrease and winter mean temperature change is larger (smaller) for simulations with higher (lower) late 20th century winter temperatures. Despite the decrease in long-term mean SWE, individual snow-rich winters do occur in the simulations, but they become increasingly uncommon towards the end of the 21st century. (orig.)

  2. Projections of Wind Changes for 21st Century in China by Three Regional Climate Models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIANG Ying; LUO Yong; ZHAO Zongci; SHI Ying; XU Yinlong; ZHU Jinhong

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the capability of three regional climate models(RCMs),i.e.,RegCM3(the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model),PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies)and CMM5(the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-the National Center for Atmospheric Research of USA,NCAR Mesoscale Model)to simulate the near-surface-layer winds(10 m above surface)all over China in the late 20th century.Results suggest that like global climate models(GCMs),these RCMs have the certain capability of imitating the distribution of mean wind speed and fail to simulate the greatly weakening wind trends for the past 50 years in the country.However,RCMs especially RegCM3 have the better capability than that of GCMs to simulate the distribution and change feature of mean wind speed.In view of their merits,these RCMs were used to project the variability of near-surface-layer winds over China for the 21st century.The results show that 1)summer mean wind speed for 2020-2029 will be lower compared to those in 1990-1999 in most area of China; 2)annual and winter mean wind speed for 2081-2100 will be lower than those of 1971-1990 in the whole China; and 3)the changes of summer mean wind speed for 2081-2100 are uncertain.As a result,although climate models are absolutely necessary for projecting climate change to come,there are great uncertainties in projections,especially for wind speed,and these issues need to be further explored.

  3. Re-orienting crop improvement for the changing climatic conditions of the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mba Chikelu

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract A 70% increase in food production is required over the next four decades to feed an ever-increasing population. The inherent difficulties in achieving this unprecedented increase are exacerbated by the yield-depressing consequences of climate change and variations and by the pressures on food supply by other competing demographic and socioeconomic demands. With the dwindling or stagnant agricultural land and water resources, the sought-after increases will therefore be attained mainly through the enhancement of crop productivity under eco-efficient crop production systems. ‘Smart’ crop varieties that yield more with fewer inputs will be pivotal to success. Plant breeding must be re-oriented in order to generate these ‘smart’ crop varieties. This paper highlights some of the scientific and technological tools that ought to be the staple of all breeding programs. We also make the case that plant breeding must be enabled by adequate policies, including those that spur innovation and investments. To arrest and reverse the worrisome trend of declining capacities for crop improvement, a new generation of plant breeders must also be trained. Equally important, winning partnerships, including public-private sector synergies, are needed for 21st century plant breeding to bear fruits. We also urge the adoption of the continuum approach to the management of plant genetic resources for food and agriculture as means to improved cohesion of the components of its value chain. Compellingly also, the National Agricultural Research and Extension System of developing countries require comprehensive overhauling and strengthening as crop improvement and other interventions require a sustained platform to be effective. The development of a suite of actionable policy interventions to be packaged for assisting countries in developing result-oriented breeding programs is also called for.

  4. Climate Change Projections for the 21st Century by the NCC/IAP T63 Model with SRES Scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Ying; ZHAO Zongci; LUO Yong; GAO Xuejie

    2005-01-01

    The projections of climate change in the globe and East Asia by the NCC/IAP T63 model with the SRES A2 and A1B scenarios have been investigated in this paper. The results pointed out a global warming of 3.6℃/100 yr and 2.5℃/100 yr for A2 and A1B during the 21st century, respectively. The warming in high and middle latitudes will be more obvious than that in low latitudes, especially in the winter hemisphere.The warming of 5.1℃/100 yr for A2 and 3.6℃/100 yr for A1B over East Asia in the 21st century will be much higher than that in the globe. The global mean precipitation will increase by about 4.3%/100 yr for A2 and 3.4%/100 yr for A1B in the 21st century, respectively. The precipitation will increase in most parts of the low and high latitudes and decrease in some regions of the subtropical latitudes. The linear trends of the annual mean precipitation anomalies over East Asia will be 9.8%/100 yr for A2 and 5.2%/100 yr for A1B, respectively. The drier situations will occur over the northwestern and southeastern parts of East Asia.The changes of the annual mean temperature and precipitation in the globe for the 21st century by the NCC/IAP T63 model with SRES A2 and A1B scenarios are in agreement with a number of the model projections.

  5. Implications of changes in freshwater flux from the Greenland ice sheet for the climate of the 21st century

    OpenAIRE

    Fichefet, T.; Poncin, C.; Goosse, H.; Huybrechts, Philippe; Janssens, I.; Le Treut, H.

    2003-01-01

    Two simulations of the 21st century climate have been carried out using, on the one hand, a coarse resolution climate general circulation model and, on the other hand, the same model coupled to a comprehensive model of the Greenland ice sheet. Both simulations display a gradual global warming up to 2080. In the experiment that includes an interactive ice sheet component, a strong and abrupt weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation occurs at the end of the 21st century. This fe...

  6. The Influence of 21st Century Climate Change on the Isotopic Composition of Atmospheric Moisture and How it Relates to Past Hydrological Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buenning, N. H.; Stott, L. D.; Yoshimura, K.

    2014-12-01

    Increases in greenhouse gas concentrations through the 21st century are projected to increase global temperatures and change circulation and precipitation patterns globally. However, there remain many uncertainties in how the general circulation of the atmosphere will change and how it will impact regional hydroclimates. In the low and middle latitudes the isotopic composition (δ) of atmospheric moisture could potentially be useful at tracing these changes in precipitation and wind patterns. In this study sea surface temperatures and sea ice conditions from 21st century climate projections (RCP8.5 scenario) were used to force the isotope-enabled Global Spectral Model (IsoGSM). This ensemble of IsoGSM simulations provides insight as to how and where water isotopologues will change globally as a result of 21st century climate change. In general, δ values increase in the subtropics and middle latitudes and decrease in the southern tropics. Changes to horizontal winds suggest that the isotopic changes are likely due to changes in the strength of the Hadley Cell, rather than the poleward expansion of the descending branch of the cells. Regionally, the simulations project consistent increases in δ values through the 21st century over central and southern Africa, the Tibetan Plateau, and the eastern Australia. Decreasing δ values were found over the eastern tropical Pacific and the western margins of South America. A comparison with a present-day IsoGSM simulation reveals similar regional changes in δ values over the last 60 years. The similarities between recent changes and 21st century projections of δ values suggest that certain hydrological aspects of 21st century climate change are already taking place in some regions. Central Africa stands out as a region where IsoGSM simulates robust rises in precipitation and vapor δ values for both the 21st century and the late 20th century. The recent rise in δ values over central Africa is validated against

  7. Integrated Assessment of Global Water Scarcity over the 21st Century under Multiple Climate Change Mitigation Policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and a global population of 14 billion by 2095, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demand for water exceeds the amount of water availability in two GCAM regions, the Middle East and India. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 20% and 27% of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in areas (grid cells) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change.

  8. 21st century United States emissions mitigation could increase water stress more than the climate change it is mitigating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I; Voisin, Nathalie; Liu, Lu; Bramer, Lisa M; Fortin, Daniel C; Hathaway, John E; Huang, Maoyi; Kyle, Page; Leung, L Ruby; Li, Hong-Yi; Liu, Ying; Patel, Pralit L; Pulsipher, Trenton C; Rice, Jennie S; Tesfa, Teklu K; Vernon, Chris R; Zhou, Yuyu

    2015-08-25

    There is evidence that warming leads to greater evapotranspiration and surface drying, thus contributing to increasing intensity and duration of drought and implying that mitigation would reduce water stresses. However, understanding the overall impact of climate change mitigation on water resources requires accounting for the second part of the equation, i.e., the impact of mitigation-induced changes in water demands from human activities. By using integrated, high-resolution models of human and natural system processes to understand potential synergies and/or constraints within the climate-energy-water nexus, we show that in the United States, over the course of the 21st century and under one set of consistent socioeconomics, the reductions in water stress from slower rates of climate change resulting from emission mitigation are overwhelmed by the increased water stress from the emissions mitigation itself. The finding that the human dimension outpaces the benefits from mitigating climate change is contradictory to the general perception that climate change mitigation improves water conditions. This research shows the potential for unintended and negative consequences of climate change mitigation.

  9. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J.; Clarke, L.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E.; Chaturvedi, V.; Wise, M.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Calvin, K.

    2014-08-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community-integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model - namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) - is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5° × 0.5° resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining

  10. 21st Century Carbon-Climate Change as Simulated by the Canadian Earth System Model CanESM1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curry, C.; Christian, J. R.; Arora, V.; Boer, G. J.; Denman, K. L.; Flato, G. M.; Scinocca, J. F.; Merryfield, W. J.; Lee, W. G.; Yang, D.

    2009-12-01

    The Canadian Earth System Model CanESM1 is a fully coupled climate/carbon-cycle model with prognostic ocean and terrestrial components. The model has been used to simulate the 1850-2000 climate using historical greenhouse gas emissions, and future climates using IPCC emission scenarios. Modelled globally averaged CO2 concentration, land and ocean carbon uptake compare well with observation-based values at year 2000, as do the annual cycle and latitudinal distribution of CO2, instilling confidence that the model is suitable for future projections of carbon cycle behaviour in a changing climate. Land use change emissions are calculated explicitly using an observation-based time series of fractional coverage of different plant functional types. A more complete description of the model may be found in Arora et al. (2009). Differences in the land-atmosphere CO2 flux from the present to the future period under the SRES A2 emissions scenario show an increase in land sinks by a factor of 7.5 globally, mostly the result of CO2 fertilization. By contrast, the magnitude of the global ocean CO2 sink increases by a factor of only 2.3 by 2100. Expressed as a fraction of total emissions, ocean carbon uptake decreases throughout the 2000-2100 period, while land carbon uptake increases until around 2050, then declines. The result is an increase in airborne CO2 fraction after the mid-21st century, reaching a value of 0.55 by 2100. The simulated decline in ocean carbon uptake over the 21st century occurs despite steadily rising atmospheric CO2. This behaviour is usually attributed to climate-induced changes in surface temperature and salinity that reduce CO2 solubility, and increasing ocean stratification that weakens the biological pump. However, ocean biological processes such as dinitrogen fixation and calcification may also play an important role. Although not well understood at present, improved parameterizations of these processes will increase confidence in projections of

  11. Impact of 21st century climate change on the Baltic Sea fish community and fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    MacKenzie, Brian; Gislason, Henrik; Möllmann, C.;

    2007-01-01

    reviewed. We then use recent regional - scale climate - ocean modelling results to consider how climate change during this century will affect the fish community of the Baltic and fisheries management. Expected climate changes in northern Europe will likely affect both the temperature and salinity...... some of the uncertainties and complexities associated with forecasting how fish populations, communities and industries dependent on an estuarine ecosystem might respond to future climate change.......The Baltic Sea is a large brackish semienclosed sea whose species-poor fish community supports important commercial and recreational fisheries. Both the fish species and the fisheries are strongly affected by climate variations. These climatic effects and the underlying mechanisms are briefly...

  12. Responses of European forest ecosystems to 21st century climate: assessing changes in interannual variability and fire intensity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dury M

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Significant climatic changes are currently observed and, according to projections, will be strengthened over the 21st century throughout the world with the continuing increase of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Climate will be generally warmer with notably changes in the seasonality and in the precipitation regime. These changes will have major impacts on the biodiversity and the functioning of natural ecosystems. The CARAIB dynamic vegetation model driven by the ARPEGE/Climate model under forcing from the A2 IPCC emission scenario is used to illustrate and analyse the potential impacts of climate change on forest productivity and distribution as well as fire intensity over Europe. The potential CO2 fertilizing effect is studied throughout transient runs of the vegetation model over the 1961-2100 period assuming constant and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Without fertilisation effect, the net primary productivity (NPP might increase in high latitudes and altitudes (by up to 40 % or even 60-100 % while it might decrease in temperate (by up to 50 % and in warmer regions, e.g., Mediterranean area (by up to 80 %. This strong decrease in NPP is associated with recurrent drought events occurring mostly in summer time. Under rising CO2 concentration, NPP increases all over Europe by as much as 25-75%, but it is not clear whether or not soils might sustain such an increase. The model indicates also that interannual NPP variability might strongly increase in the areas which will undergo recurrent water stress in the future. During the years exhibiting summer drought, the NPP might decrease to values much lower than present-day average NPP even when CO2 fertilization is included. Moreover, years with such events will happen much more frequently than today. Regions with more severe droughts might also be affected by an increase of wildfire frequency and intensity, which may have large impacts on vegetation density and distribution. For

  13. How may the regional climate change redraw the European terrestrial wild mammals' living territory in the 21st century?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagy, Julia; Bartholy, Judit; Pongracz, Rita; Hufnagel, Levente

    2013-04-01

    Climate is one of the abiotic factors, which controls primarily the range areas of wildlife. Animals tend to occupy geographical regions with climatic conditions, which are optimal to their specific needs. Due to the projected global warming and climate change the living territory of wild animals' may be reshaped in the future, some of the species may even suffer extinction. In this research we aim to estimate how climate change alters the distributions of European terrestrial mammal species and modifies biodiversity in the 21st century. For this purpose, first, hierarchical cluster analysis is applied to species for forming major groups. Climatic information is provided by using the E-OBS gridded database for 1961-1990. Then, carefully selecting typical species from the major groups it is possible to predict changes in area by displaying their climate indicator profile maps. For the range datasets the Atlas of European Mammals are analyzed, which was published in 1999 and is now widely used as a reference work. It contains data for pre-1970 and post-1970 presence of mammal species in Europe. Then, in order to assess future changes, available datasets of regional climate model results from the European project ENSEMBLES for 1951-2100 using the moderate SRES A1B emission scenario are considered with 25 km horizontal resolution. Simultaneous analysis of climate simulations and animal range datasets enables us to evaluate the vulnerability of European terrestrial mammal species to regional climate change. The results suggest that rapid change and significant decline in habitats and fauna redraw the wild animals' living territory and make them migrate northward.

  14. Observed forest sensitivity to climate implies large changes in 21st century North American forest growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charney, Noah D; Babst, Flurin; Poulter, Benjamin; Record, Sydne; Trouet, Valerie M; Frank, David; Enquist, Brian J; Evans, Margaret E K

    2016-09-01

    Predicting long-term trends in forest growth requires accurate characterisation of how the relationship between forest productivity and climatic stress varies across climatic regimes. Using a network of over two million tree-ring observations spanning North America and a space-for-time substitution methodology, we forecast climate impacts on future forest growth. We explored differing scenarios of increased water-use efficiency (WUE) due to CO2 -fertilisation, which we simulated as increased effective precipitation. In our forecasts: (1) climate change negatively impacted forest growth rates in the interior west and positively impacted forest growth along the western, southeastern and northeastern coasts; (2) shifting climate sensitivities offset positive effects of warming on high-latitude forests, leaving no evidence for continued 'boreal greening'; and (3) it took a 72% WUE enhancement to compensate for continentally averaged growth declines under RCP 8.5. Our results highlight the importance of locally adapted forest management strategies to handle regional differences in growth responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  15. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Precipitation over Lake Victoria, East Africa, in the 21st Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mary Akurut

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Precipitation over Lake Victoria in East Africa greatly influences its water balance. Over 30 million people rely on Lake Victoria for food, potable water, hydropower and transport. Projecting precipitation changes over the lake is vital in dealing with climate change impacts. The past and future precipitation over the lake were assessed using 42 model runs obtained from 26 General Circulation Models (GCMs of the newest generation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5. Two CMIP5 scenarios defined by Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were used to explore climate change impacts. The daily precipitation over Lake Victoria for the period 1962–2002 was compared with future projections for the 2040s and 2075s. The ability of GCMs to project daily, monthly and annual precipitation over the lake was evaluated based on the mean error, root mean square error and the frequency of occurrence of extreme precipitation. Higher resolution models (grid size <1.5° simulated monthly variations better than low resolution models (grid size >2.5°. The total annual precipitation is expected to increase by less than 10% for the RCP4.5 scenario and less than 20% for the RCP8.5 scenario over the 21st century, despite the higher (up to 40% increase in extreme daily intensities.

  16. Impacts of 21st century climate changes on flora and vegetation in Denmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skov, Flemming; Nygaard, Bettina; Wind, Peter; Floejgaard, Camilla [Department of Wildlife Ecology and Biodiversity, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Grenaavej 14, DK-8410 Roende (Denmark); Borchsenius, Finn; Normand, Signe; Balslev, Henrik; Svenning, Jens-Christian, E-mail: fs@dmu.d [Department of Biological Sciences, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, DK-8000 Aarhus C (Denmark)

    2009-11-01

    In this paper we examined the potential impacts of predicted climatic changes on the flora and vegetation in Denmark using data from a digital database on the natural vegetation of Europe. Climate scenarios A2 and B2 were used to find regions with present climatic conditions similar to Denmark's climate in the year 2100. The potential natural vegetation of Denmark today is predominantly deciduous forest that would cover more than 90% of the landscape. Swamps, bogs, and wet forest would be found under moist or wet conditions. Dwarf shrub heaths would be naturally occurring on poor soils along the coast together with dune systems and salt-marsh vegetation. When comparing the natural vegetation of Denmark to the vegetation of five future-climate analogue areas, the most obvious trend is a shift from deciduous to thermophilous broadleaved forest currently found in Southern and Eastern Europe. A total of 983 taxa were recorded for this study of which 539 were found in Denmark. The Soerensen index was used to measure the floristic similarity between Denmark and the five subregions. Deciduous forest, dwarf shrub heath, and coastal vegetation were treated in more detail, focusing on potential new immigrant species to Denmark. Finally, implications for management were discussed. The floristic similarity between Denmark and regions in Europe with a climate similar to what is expected for Denmark in year 2100 was found to vary between 48-78%, decreasing from North to South. Hence, it seems inevitable that climate changes of the magnitudes foreseen will alter the distribution of individual species and the composition of natural vegetation units. Changes, however, will not be immediate. Historic evidence shows a considerable lag in response to climatic change under natural conditions, but little is known about the effects of human land-use and pollution on this process. Facing such uncertainties we suggested that a dynamic strategy based on modeling, monitoring and

  17. Evaluation of Probable Maximum Precipitation and Flood under Climate Change in the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gangrade, S.; Kao, S. C.; Rastogi, D.; Ashfaq, M.; Naz, B. S.; Kabela, E.; Anantharaj, V. G.; Singh, N.; Preston, B. L.; Mei, R.

    2016-12-01

    Critical infrastructures are potentially vulnerable to extreme hydro-climatic events. Under a warming environment, the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation and flood are likely to increase enhancing the needs to more accurately quantify the risks due to climate change. In this study, we utilized an integrated modeling framework that includes the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model and a high resolution distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM) to simulate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and flood (PMF) events over Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin. A total of 120 storms were selected to simulate moisture maximized PMP under different meteorological forcings, including historical storms driven by Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and baseline (1981-2010), near term future (2021-2050) and long term future (2071-2100) storms driven by Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) under Representative Concentrations Pathway 8.5 emission scenario. We also analyzed the sensitivity of PMF to various antecedent hydrologic conditions such as initial soil moisture conditions and tested different compulsive approaches. Overall, a statistical significant increase is projected for future PMP and PMF, mainly attributed to the increase of background air temperature. The ensemble of simulated PMP and PMF along with their sensitivity allows us to better quantify the potential risks associated with hydro-climatic extreme events on critical energy-water infrastructures such as major hydropower dams and nuclear power plants.

  18. Climate Changes in the 21st Century over the Asia-Pacific Region Simulated by the NCAR CSM and PCM

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The Climate System Model (CSM) and the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), two coupled global climate models without flux adjustments recently developed at NCAR, were used to simulate the 20th century climate using historical greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol forcing. These simulations were extended through the 21st century under two newly developed scenarios, a business-as-usual case (BAU, CO2≈710 ppmv in 2100) and a CO2 stabilization case (STA550, CO2≈540 ppmv in 2100). The simulated changes in temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture over the Asia-Pacific region (10°-60°N, 55°-155°E) are analyzed, with a focus on the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall and climate changes over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. Under the BAU scenario, both the models produce surface warming of about 3-5℃ in winter and 2-3℃ in summer over most Asia. Under the STA550 scenario, the warming is reduced by 0.5-1.0℃ in winter and by 0.5℃ in summer. The warming is fairly uniform at the low latitudes and does not induce significant changes in the zonal mean Hadley circulation over the Asia-Pacific do main. While the regional precipitation changes from single CSM integrations are noisy, the PCM ensemble mean precipitation shows 10%-30% increases north of ~ 30°N and ~ 10% decreases south of ~ 30°N over the Asia-Pacific region in winter and 10%-20% increases in summer precipitation over most of the region. Soil moisture changes are small over most Asia. The CSM single simulation suggests a 30% increase in river runoff into the Three Gorges Dam, but the PCM ensemble simulations show small changes in the runoff.

  19. Energy and environment in the 21st century : minimizing climate change.

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    2003-01-01

    Energy demand and economic output are coupled. Both are expected to vastly increase in this century, driven primarily by the economic and population growth of the developing world. If the present reliance on carbon-based fuels as primary energy sources continues, average global temperatures are projected to rise between 3° C and 6° C. Limiting climate change will require reduction in greenhouse gas emissions far beyond the Kyoto commitments. Time scales and options, including nuclear, will be reviewed.

  20. North-South asymmetry in the modeled phytoplankton community response to climate change over the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marinov, Irina; Doney, Scott C.; Lima, Ivan D.; Lindsay, K.; Moore, J. K.; Mahowald, N.

    2013-12-01

    we analyze the impact of projected climate change on plankton ecology in all major ocean biomes over the 21st century, using a multidecade (1880-2090) experiment conducted with the Community Climate System Model (CCSM-3.1) coupled ocean-atmosphere-land-sea ice model. The climate response differs fundamentally in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres for diatom and small phytoplankton biomass and consequently for total biomass, primary, and export production. Increasing vertical stratification in the Northern Hemisphere oceans decreases the nutrient supply to the ocean surface. Resulting decreases in diatom and small phytoplankton biomass together with a relative shift from diatoms to small phytoplankton in the Northern Hemisphere result in decreases in the total primary and export production and export ratio, and a shift to a more oligotrophic, more efficiently recycled, lower biomass euphotic layer. By contrast, temperature and stratification increases are smaller in the Southern compared to the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, a southward shift and increase in strength of the Southern Ocean westerlies act against increasing temperature and freshwater fluxes to destratify the water-column. The wind-driven, poleward shift in the Southern Ocean subpolar-subtropical boundary results in a poleward shift and increase in the frontal diatom bloom. This boundary shift, localized increases in iron supply, and the direct impact of warming temperatures on phytoplankton growth result in diatom increases in the Southern Hemisphere. An increase in diatoms and decrease in small phytoplankton partly compensate such that while total production and the efficiency of organic matter export to the deep ocean increase, total Southern Hemisphere biomass does not change substantially. The impact of ecological shifts on the global carbon cycle is complex and varies across ecological biomes, with Northern and Southern Hemisphere effects on the biological production and export partially

  1. The state of the world’s mangroves in the 21st century under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feller, Ilka C.; Friess, Daniel A.; Krauss, Ken W.; Lewis, Roy R.

    2017-01-01

    Concerted mangrove research and rehabilitation efforts over the last several decades have prompted a better understanding of the important ecosystem attributes worthy of protection and a better conservation ethic toward mangrove wetlands globally. While mangroves continue to be degraded and lost in specific regions, conservation initiatives, rehabilitation efforts, natural regeneration, and climate range expansion have promoted gains in other areas, ultimately serving to curb the high mangrove habitat loss statistics from the doom and gloom of the 1980s. We highlight those trends in this article and introduce this special issue of Hydrobiologia dedicated to the important and recurring Mangrove and Macrobenthos Meeting. This collection of papers represents studies presented at the fourth such meeting (MMM4) held in St. Augustine, Florida, USA, on July 18–22, 2016. Our intent is to provide a balanced message about the global state of mangrove wetlands by describing recent reductions in net mangrove area losses and highlighting primary research studies presented at MMM4 through a collection of papers. These papers serve not only to highlight on-going global research advancements, but also provide an overview of the vast amount of data on mangrove ecosystem ecology, biology and rehabilitation that emphasizes the uniqueness of the mangrove community.

  2. Global and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21st century simulations with interactive carbon cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. R. Boysen

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Biogeophysical (BGP and biogeochemical (BGC effects of land-use and land cover change (LULCC are separated at the global and regional scales in new interactive CO2 simulations for the 21st century. Results from four Earth System models (ESMs are analyzed for the future RCP8.5 scenario from simulations with and without land-use and land cover change (LULCC contributing to the Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts (LUCID project. Over the period, 2006–2100, LULCC causes the atmospheric CO2 concentration to increase by 12, 22, and 66 ppm in CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR, respectively. Statistically significant changes in global near-surface temperature are found in three models with a BGC-induced global mean annual warming between 0.07 and 0.23 K. BGP-induced responses are simulated by three models in areas of intense LULCC of varying sign and magnitude (between −0.47 and 0.10 K. Global land carbon losses due to LULCC are simulated by all models: 218, 57, 35 and 34 Gt C by MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CanESM2, respectively. On the contrary, the CO2-fertilization effect caused by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to LULCC leads to a land carbon gain of 39 Gt C in MPI-ESM-LR and is almost negligible in the other models. A substantial part of the spread in models' responses to LULCC is attributed to the differences in implementation of LULCC (e.g. whether pastures or crops are simulated explicitly and the simulation of specific processes. Simple idealized experiments with clear protocols for implementing LULCC in ESMs are needed to increase the understanding of model responses and the statistical significance of results, especially, when analyzing the regional-scale impacts of LULCC.

  3. Global and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21st century simulations with interactive carbon cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. R. Boysen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Biogeophysical (BGP and biogeochemical (BGC effects of land-use and land cover change (LULCC are separated at the global and regional scales in new interactive CO2 simulations for the 21st century. Results from four earth system models (ESMs are analyzed for the future RCP8.5 scenario from simulations with and without land-use and land cover change (LULCC, contributing to the Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts (LUCID project. Over the period 2006–2100, LULCC causes the atmospheric CO2 concentration to increase by 12, 22, and 66 ppm in CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR, respectively. Statistically significant changes in global near-surface temperature are found in three models with a BGC-induced global mean annual warming between 0.07 and 0.23 K. BGP-induced responses are simulated by three models in areas of intense LULCC of varying sign and magnitude (between −0.47 and 0.10 K. Modifications of the land carbon pool by LULCC are disentangled in accordance with processes that can lead to increases and decreases in this carbon pool. Global land carbon losses due to LULCC are simulated by all models: 218, 57, 35 and 34 Gt C by MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CanESM2, respectively. On the contrary, the CO2-fertilization effect caused by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to LULCC leads to a land carbon gain of 39 Gt C in MPI-ESM-LR and is almost negligible in the other models. A substantial part of the spread in models' responses to LULCC is attributed to the differences in implementation of LULCC (e.g., whether pastures or crops are simulated explicitly and the simulation of specific processes. Simple idealized experiments with clear protocols for implementing LULCC in ESMs are needed to increase the understanding of model responses and the statistical significance of results, especially when analyzing the regional-scale impacts of LULCC.

  4. The Nanchang Communication about the potential for implementation of conservation practices for climate change mitigation and adaptation to achieve food security in the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge A. Delgado

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available There is a large number of peer-reviewed publications reporting that a changing climate is one of the biggest challenges humanity will have during the 21st century. With population growth and the need to significantly increase agricultural production per unit of area during the 21st century, a changing climate will put additional stress on soil resources. Soil and water conservation will be key for the future of humanity. Professional societies in the area of agriculture and soil and water conservation have recognized the importance that soil resources will have for humanity during this century and have made calls for implementation of worldwide soil and water conservation. For example, in 2010 the Soil and Water Conservation Society (SWCS invited a group of scientists to review the literature about the potential to use conservation practices for climate change adaptation and mitigation. The Delgado et al. (2011 paper was used by the SWCS to develop and adopt a position statement about the importance of using soil and water conservation practices to mitigate and adapt to climate change. The International Soil Conservation Organization (ISCO invited the lead author to present the paper as a keynote presentation at the ISCO 2013 conference. The European Society of Soil Conservation (ESSC published a short communication about this paper in one of their newsletters in 2014. The World Association of Soil and Water Conservation (WASWAC also invited the lead author to present a keynote presentation on this topic at the 2015 WASWAC annual meeting in Nanchang. This paper (the Nanchang Communication is a summary of the Delgado et al. (2011 paper that was used by the SWCS to develop the SWCS position statement related to soil and water conservation and climate change. The Nanchang Communication (this paper was used by WASWAC to develop a position statement about the immediate need for implementation of conservation practices for mitigation of and

  5. Large increase in dissolved inorganic carbon flux from the Mississippi River to Gulf of Mexico due to climatic and anthropogenic changes over the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Wei; Tian, Hanqin; Tao, Bo; Yang, Jia; Pan, Shufen; Cai, Wei-Jun; Lohrenz, Steven E; He, Ruoying; Hopkinson, Charles S

    2015-04-01

    It is recognized that anthropogenic factors have had a major impact on carbon fluxes from land to the ocean during the past two centuries. However, little is known about how future changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and land use may affect riverine carbon fluxes over the 21st century. Using a coupled hydrological-biogeochemical model, the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, this study examines potential changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) export from the Mississippi River basin to the Gulf of Mexico during 2010-2099 attributable to climate-related conditions (temperature and precipitation), atmospheric CO2, and land use change. Rates of annual DIC export are projected to increase by 65% under the high emission scenario (A2) and 35% under the low emission scenario (B1) between the 2000s and the 2090s. Climate-related changes along with rising atmospheric CO2 together would account for over 90% of the total increase in DIC export throughout the 21st century. The predicted increase in DIC export from the Mississippi River basin would alter chemistry of the coastal ocean unless appropriate climate mitigation actions are taken in the near future.

  6. Long-Term Changes in Stratospheric Age Spectra in the 21st Century in the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Feng; Waugh, Darryn W.; Douglass, Anne R.; Newman, Paul A.; Strahan, Susan E.; Ma, Jun; Nielsen, J. Eric; Liang, Qing

    2012-01-01

    In this study we investigate the long-term variations in the stratospheric age spectra using simulations of the 21st century with the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry- Climate Model (GEOSCCM). Our purposes are to characterize the long-term changes in the age spectra and identify processes that cause the decrease of the mean age in a warming climate. Changes in the age spectra in the 21st century simulations are characterized by decreases in the modal age, the mean age, the spectral width, and the tail decay timescale. Our analyses show that the decrease in the mean age is caused by two processes: the acceleration of the residual circulation that increases the young air masses in the stratosphere, and the weakening of the recirculation that leads to the decrease of tail of the age spectra and the decrease of the old air masses. The weakening of the stratospheric recirculation is also strongly correlated with the increase of the residual circulation. One important result of this study is that the decrease of the tail of the age spectra makes an important contribution to the decrease of the main age. Long-term changes in the stratospheric isentropic mixing are investigated. Mixing increases in the subtropical lower stratosphere, but its impact on the age spectra is outweighed by the increase of the residual circulation. The impacts of the long-term changes in the age spectra on long-lived chemical traces are also investigated. 37 2

  7. Complex spatiotemporal responses of global terrestrial primary production to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 in the 21st century.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shufen Pan

    Full Text Available Quantitative information on the response of global terrestrial net primary production (NPP to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 is essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the 21st century. Using a process-based ecosystem model (the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, DLEM, we quantified the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of contemporary (2000s global NPP, and projected its potential responses to climate and CO2 changes in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES A2 and B1 of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. We estimated a global terrestrial NPP of 54.6 (52.8-56.4 PgC yr(-1 as a result of multiple factors during 2000-2009. Climate change would either reduce global NPP (4.6% under the A2 scenario or slightly enhance NPP (2.2% under the B1 scenario during 2010-2099. In response to climate change, global NPP would first increase until surface air temperature increases by 1.5 °C (until the 2030s and then level-off or decline after it increases by more than 1.5 °C (after the 2030s. This result supports the Copenhagen Accord Acknowledgement, which states that staying below 2 °C may not be sufficient and the need to potentially aim for staying below 1.5 °C. The CO2 fertilization effect would result in a 12%-13.9% increase in global NPP during the 21st century. The relative CO2 fertilization effect, i.e. change in NPP on per CO2 (ppm bases, is projected to first increase quickly then level off in the 2070s and even decline by the end of the 2080s, possibly due to CO2 saturation and nutrient limitation. Terrestrial NPP responses to climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 largely varied among biomes, with the largest increases in the tundra and boreal needleleaf deciduous forest. Compared to the low emission scenario (B1, the high emission scenario (A2 would lead to larger spatiotemporal variations in NPP, and more dramatic and counteracting impacts from climate and

  8. Complex spatiotemporal responses of global terrestrial primary production to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 in the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Shufen; Tian, Hanqin; Dangal, Shree R S; Zhang, Chi; Yang, Jia; Tao, Bo; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Wang, Xiaoke; Lu, Chaoqun; Ren, Wei; Banger, Kamaljit; Yang, Qichun; Zhang, Bowen; Li, Xia

    2014-01-01

    Quantitative information on the response of global terrestrial net primary production (NPP) to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 is essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the 21st century. Using a process-based ecosystem model (the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, DLEM), we quantified the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of contemporary (2000s) global NPP, and projected its potential responses to climate and CO2 changes in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We estimated a global terrestrial NPP of 54.6 (52.8-56.4) PgC yr(-1) as a result of multiple factors during 2000-2009. Climate change would either reduce global NPP (4.6%) under the A2 scenario or slightly enhance NPP (2.2%) under the B1 scenario during 2010-2099. In response to climate change, global NPP would first increase until surface air temperature increases by 1.5 °C (until the 2030s) and then level-off or decline after it increases by more than 1.5 °C (after the 2030s). This result supports the Copenhagen Accord Acknowledgement, which states that staying below 2 °C may not be sufficient and the need to potentially aim for staying below 1.5 °C. The CO2 fertilization effect would result in a 12%-13.9% increase in global NPP during the 21st century. The relative CO2 fertilization effect, i.e. change in NPP on per CO2 (ppm) bases, is projected to first increase quickly then level off in the 2070s and even decline by the end of the 2080s, possibly due to CO2 saturation and nutrient limitation. Terrestrial NPP responses to climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 largely varied among biomes, with the largest increases in the tundra and boreal needleleaf deciduous forest. Compared to the low emission scenario (B1), the high emission scenario (A2) would lead to larger spatiotemporal variations in NPP, and more dramatic and counteracting impacts from climate and increasing

  9. Complex Spatiotemporal Responses of Global Terrestrial Primary Production to Climate Change and Increasing Atmospheric CO2 in the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Shufen; Tian, Hanqin; Dangal, Shree R. S.; Zhang, Chi; Yang, Jia; Tao, Bo; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Wang, Xiaoke; Lu, Chaoqun; Ren, Wei; Banger, Kamaljit; Yang, Qichun; Zhang, Bowen; Li, Xia

    2014-01-01

    Quantitative information on the response of global terrestrial net primary production (NPP) to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 is essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the 21st century. Using a process-based ecosystem model (the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, DLEM), we quantified the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of contemporary (2000s) global NPP, and projected its potential responses to climate and CO2 changes in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We estimated a global terrestrial NPP of 54.6 (52.8–56.4) PgC yr−1 as a result of multiple factors during 2000–2009. Climate change would either reduce global NPP (4.6%) under the A2 scenario or slightly enhance NPP (2.2%) under the B1 scenario during 2010–2099. In response to climate change, global NPP would first increase until surface air temperature increases by 1.5°C (until the 2030s) and then level-off or decline after it increases by more than 1.5°C (after the 2030s). This result supports the Copenhagen Accord Acknowledgement, which states that staying below 2°C may not be sufficient and the need to potentially aim for staying below 1.5°C. The CO2 fertilization effect would result in a 12%–13.9% increase in global NPP during the 21st century. The relative CO2 fertilization effect, i.e. change in NPP on per CO2 (ppm) bases, is projected to first increase quickly then level off in the 2070s and even decline by the end of the 2080s, possibly due to CO2 saturation and nutrient limitation. Terrestrial NPP responses to climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 largely varied among biomes, with the largest increases in the tundra and boreal needleleaf deciduous forest. Compared to the low emission scenario (B1), the high emission scenario (A2) would lead to larger spatiotemporal variations in NPP, and more dramatic and counteracting impacts from climate and

  10. Exploring eco-hydrological consequences of the Amazonian ecosystems under climate and land-use changes in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, K.; Castanho, A. D.; Moghim, S.; Bras, R. L.; Coe, M. T.; Costa, M. H.; Levine, N. M.; Longo, M.; McKnight, S.; Wang, J.; Moorcroft, P. R.

    2012-12-01

    Deforestation and drought have imposed regional-scale perturbations onto Amazonian ecosystems and are predicted to cause larger negative impacts on the Amazonian ecosystems and associated regional carbon dynamics in the 21st century. However, global climate models (GCMs) vary greatly in their projections of future climate change in Amazonia, giving rise to uncertainty in the expected fate of the Amazon over the coming century. In this study, we explore the possible eco-hydrological consequences of the Amazonian ecosystems under projected climate and land-use changes in the 21st century using two state-of-the-art terrestrial ecosystem models—Ecosystem Demography Model 2.1(ED2.1) and Integrated Biosphere Simulator model (IBIS)—driven by three representative, bias-corrected climate projections from three IPCC GCMs (NCARPCM1, NCARCCSM3 and HadCM3), coupled with two land-use change scenarios (a business-as-usual and a strict governance scenario). We also analyze the relative roles of climate change, CO2 fertilization, land-use change and fire in driving the projected composition and structure of the Amazonian ecosystems. Our results show that CO2 fertilization enhances vegetation productivity and above-ground biomass (AGB) in the region, while land-use change and fire cause AGB loss and the replacement of forests by the savanna-like vegetation. The impacts of climate change depend strongly on the direction and severity of projected precipitation changes in the region. In particular, when intensified water stress is superimposed on unregulated deforestation, both ecosystem models predict large-scale dieback of Amazonian rainforests.

  11. Arctic climate changes in the 21st century: Ensemble model estimates accounting for realism in present-day climate simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliseev, A. V.; Semenov, V. A.

    2016-11-01

    In the course of forecasting future climate changes in the Arctic Region based on calculations and an ensemble of the state-of-the-art global climate models, the results depend on the method of construction the statistics from the models.

  12. The relative importance of impacts from climate change vs. emissions change on air pollution levels in the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. B. Hedegaard

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available So far several studies have analysed the impacts of climate change on future air pollution levels. Significant changes due to impacts of climate change have been made clear. Nevertheless, these changes are not yet included in national, regional or global air pollution reduction strategies. The changes in future air pollution levels are caused by both impacts from climate change and anthropogenic emission changes, the importance of which needs to be quantified and compared. In this study we use the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM driven by meteorological input data from the coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model ECHAM5/MPI-OM and forced with the newly developed RCP4.5 emissions. The relative importance of the climate signal and the signal from changes in anthropogenic emissions on the future ozone, black carbon (BC, total particulate matter with a diameter below 2.5 μm (total PM2.5 including BC, primary organic carbon (OC, mineral dust and secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA and total nitrogen (including NHx + NOy has been determined. For ozone, the impacts of anthropogenic emissions dominate, though a climate penalty is found in the Arctic region and northwestern Europe, where the signal from climate change dampens the effect from the projected emission reductions of anthropogenic ozone precursors. The investigated particles are even more dominated by the impacts from emission changes. For black carbon the emission signal dominates slightly at high latitudes, with an increase up to an order of magnitude larger, close to the emission sources in temperate and subtropical areas. Including all particulate matter with a diameter below 2.5 μm (total PM2.5 enhances the dominance from emissions change. In contrast, total nitrogen (NHx + NOy in parts of the Arctic and at low latitudes is dominated by impacts of climate change.

  13. The relative importance of impacts from climate change vs. emissions change on air pollution levels in the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. B. Hedegaard

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available So far several studies have analysed the impacts of climate change on future air pollution levels. Significant changes due to impacts of climate change have been made clear. Nevertheless, these changes are not yet included in national, regional or global air pollution reduction strategies. The changes in future air pollution levels are caused by both impacts from climate change and anthropogenic emission changes and the importance of these signals needs to be quantified and compared. In this study we use the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM driven on meteorological input data from the coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model ECHAM5/MPI-OM and forced with the newly developed RCP4.5 emissions. The relative importance of the climate signal and the signal from changes in anthropogenic emissions on the future ozone, black carbon (BC, total particulate matter with a diameter below 2.5 μm (total PM2.5 including BC, primary organic carbon (OC, mineral dust and secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA and total nitrogen (including NHx + NOy has been determined. For ozone the impacts of anthropogenic emissions dominates though a climate penalty is found in the Arctic region and the Northwestern Europe where the signal from climate change dampens the effect from the projected emission reductions of anthropogenic ozone precursors. The investigated particles are even more dominated by the impacts from emission changes. For black carbon the emission signal dominates slightly at high latitudes increasing to be up to an order of magnitude larger close to the emission sources in temperate and subtropical areas. Including all particulate matter with a diameter below 2.5 μm (total PM2.5 enhances the dominance from emissions change. In contrast, total nitrogen (NHx + NOy in parts of the Arctic and at low latitudes is dominated by impacts of climate change.

  14. Forecasting the Effects of 21st Century Climate Change on Eighteen Ski Resorts in the Western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pidwirny, M. J.; Soroke, M.

    2013-12-01

    This research uses climate data generated from ClimateWNA to determine the effect future global warming will have on eighteen ski resorts in the western United States. The ski resorts selected for this study range in latitude from 48.5° N (Whitefish Mountain Resort, Montana) to 33.4° N (Ski Apache Resort, New Mexico). ClimateWNA is a high quality spatially interpolated climate dataset program that contains historical datasets for the period 1901-2011 and future climate datasets generated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 climate models. From the ClimateWNA program, three emission scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1) were applied to a subset of selected climate models to produce 20 climate forecasts for each of 2050 and 2080. Three derived climate variables were selected to determine the influence of climate change on the viability of the ski resorts: snowfall, number of frost days, and degree days ski resorts depending on the model and emission scenario used when compared to the 1961-1990 normal period. 2050 and 2080 projections generally suggest declines in ski resort viability because of reductions in snowfall, warmer temperatures, and shorter seasons even under best-case scenarios. However, some of the best-case model predictions do suggest an increase in snowfall in a few of the resorts studied. Worst-case scenarios almost always indicate significant declines in all of the climate variables.

  15. Main physical processes and mechanisms responsible for the observable climate changes in the 20-21st centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zherebtsov, G. A.; Kovalenko, V. A.; Kirichenko, K. E.

    2015-11-01

    We discuss the issues of primary importance for understanding the nature of climate changes in the 20th century and main physical processes responsible for them. Special attention is paid to climate changes which occurred in 1943-1976 and 2000-2014. These periods exhibit the maximum increase in CO2 in the atmosphere, with virtually unchanged global temperature and its reduction in some regions. We study atmospheric and sea surface temperature effects of solar activity. The paper deals with results of the analysis of regularities and peculiarities of a tropospheric and sea surface temperature response to separate heliogeophysical disturbances as well as to long-term solar and geomagnetic activity variations. We also present results of the analysis of a change in sea surface temperature covering the time period 1854-2012 and their relation to solar activity variations. We find further evidence for the solar effect on climatic processes in the troposphere and ocean. We reveal a significant response in the major climatic characteristics, namely, surface air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST). It is established that the climatic response is characterized by significant space-time inhomogeneity, is regional and depends on the climate epoch. We discuss a role of wind stress and thermohaline circulation in the observable climate changes.

  16. Coastal sea level changes, observed and projected during the 20th and 21st century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carson, M.; Köhl, A.; Stammer, D.; A. Slangen, A. B.; Katsman, C. A.; W. van de Wal, R. S.; Church, J.; White, N.

    2015-01-01

    Timeseries of observed and projected sea level changes for the 20th and 21st century are analyzed at various coastal locations around the world that are vulnerable to climate change. Observed time series are from tide gauges and altimetry, as well as from reconstructions over the last 50 years. CMIP

  17. Assessing Agricultural Risks of Climate Change in the 21st Century in a Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Mueller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay

    2014-01-01

    Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

  18. Projected Impacts of 21st Century Climate Change on Potential Habitat for Vegetation and Forest Types in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soja, A. J.; Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Cantin, A.; Conard, S. G.

    2015-12-01

    Global GCMs have demonstrated profound potential for projections to affect the distribution of terrestrial ecosystems and individual species at all hierarchical levels. We modeled progression of potential Russian ecotones and forest-forming species as the climate changes. Large-scale bioclimatic models were developed to predict Russian zonal vegetation (RuBCliM) and forest types (ForCliM) from three bioclimatic indices (1) growing degree-days above 5 degrees C; (2) negative degree-days below 0 C ; and (3) an annual moisture index (ratio of growing degree days to annual precipitation). The presence or absence of continuous permafrost was explicitly included in the models as limiting the forests and tree species distribution. All simulations to predict vegetation change across Russia were run by coupling our bioclimatic models with bioclimatic indices and the permafrost distribution for the baseline period and for the future 2020, 2050 and 2100 simulated by 3 GCMs (CGCM3.1, HadCM3 and IPSLCM4) and 3 climate change scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1). Under these climate scenarios, it is projected the zonobiomes will shift far northward to reach equilibrium with the change in climate. Under the warmer and drier projected future climate, about half of Russia would be suitable for the forest-steppe ecotone and grasslands, rather than for forests. Water stress tolerant light-needled taiga would have an increased advantage over water-loving dark-needled taiga. Permafrost-tolerant L. dahurica taiga would remain the dominant forest across permafrost. Increases in severe fire weather would lead to increases in large, high-severity fires, especially at boundaries between forest ecotones, which can be expected to facilitate a more rapid progression of vegetation towards a new equilibrium with the climate. Adaptation to climate change may be facilitated by: assisting migration of forests by seed transfers to establish genotypes that may be more ecologically suited as climate changes

  19. Sustainability of water uses in managed hydrosystems: human- and climate-induced changes for the mid-21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabre, Julie; Ruelland, Denis; Dezetter, Alain; Grouillet, Benjamin

    2016-08-01

    This paper assesses the sustainability of planned water uses in mesoscale river basins under multiple climate change scenarios, and contributes to determining the possible causes of unsustainability. We propose an assessment grounded in real-world water management issues, with water management scenarios built in collaboration with local water agencies. Furthermore, we present an analysis through indicators that relate to management goals and present the implications of climate uncertainty for our results, furthering the significance of our study for water management. A modeling framework integrating hydro-climatic and human dynamics and accounting for interactions between resource and demand was applied in two basins of different scales and with contrasting water uses: the Herault (2500 km2, France) and the Ebro (85 000 km2, Spain) basins. Natural streamflow was evaluated using a conceptual hydrological model. A demand-driven reservoir management model was designed to account for streamflow regulations from the main dams. Human water demand was estimated from time series of demographic, socioeconomic and climatic data. Environmental flows were accounted for by defining streamflow thresholds under which withdrawals were strictly limited. Finally indicators comparing water availability to demand at strategic resource and demand nodes were computed. This framework was applied under different combinations of climatic and water use scenarios for the mid-21st to differentiate the impacts of climate- and human-induced changes on streamflow and water balance. Results showed that objective monthly environmental flows would be guaranteed in current climate conditions in both basins, yet in several areas this could imply limiting human water uses more than once every 5 years. The impact of the tested climate projections on both water availability and demand could question the water allocations and environmental requirements currently planned for the coming decades. Water

  20. Large-scale range collapse of Hawaiian forest birds under climate change and the need 21st century conservation options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortini, Lucas; Vorsino, Adam E.; Amidon, Fred A.; Paxton, Eben; Jacobi, James D.

    2015-01-01

    Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria's life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics) are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows). Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations.

  1. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century – Part 2: Climate change mitigation policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. I. Hejazi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity both globally and regionally using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM, a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m−2 in year 2095 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively, under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT which excludes land use change emissions are analyzed. The results are compared to a baseline scenario (i.e. no climate change mitigation policy with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m−2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario by 2095. When compared to the baseline scenario and maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food and energy production, and in land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water availability in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change. Future research will be directed at incorporating water shortage feedbacks in GCAM to better understand how such stresses will propagate across the various human and natural systems in GCAM.

  2. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century - Part 2: Climate change mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J.; Clarke, L.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E.; Chaturvedi, V.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Patel, P.; Calvin, K.

    2013-03-01

    We investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity both globally and regionally using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m-2 in year 2095 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The results are compared to a baseline scenario (i.e. no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) by 2095. When compared to the baseline scenario and maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food and energy production, and in land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water availability in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change. Future research will be directed at incorporating water shortage feedbacks in GCAM to better understand how such stresses will propagate across the various human and natural systems in GCAM.

  3. Quantifying the effect of Tmax extreme events on local adaptation to climate change of maize crop in Andalusia for the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabaldon, Clara; Lorite, Ignacio J.; Ines Minguez, M.; Lizaso, Jon; Dosio, Alessandro; Sanchez, Enrique; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

    2015-04-01

    Extreme events of Tmax can threaten maize production on Andalusia (Ruiz-Ramos et al., 2011). The objective of this work is to attempt a quantification of the effects of Tmax extreme events on the previously identified (Gabaldón et al., 2013) local adaptation strategies to climate change of irrigated maize crop in Andalusia for the first half of the 21st century. This study is focused on five Andalusia locations. Local adaptation strategies identified consisted on combinations of changes on sowing dates and choice of cultivar (Gabaldón et al., 2013). Modified cultivar features were the duration of phenological phases and the grain filling rate. The phenological and yield simulations with the adaptative changes were obtained from a modelling chain: current simulated climate and future climate scenarios (2013-2050) were taken from a group of regional climate models at high resolution (25 km) from the European Project ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org/). After bias correcting these data for temperature and precipitation (Dosio and Paruolo, 2011; Dosio et al., 2012) crop simulations were generated by the CERES-maize model (Jones and Kiniry, 1986) under DSSAT platform, previously calibrated and validated. Quantification of the effects of extreme Tmax on maize yield was computed for different phenological stages following Teixeira et al. (2013). A heat stress index was computed; this index assumes that yield-damage intensity due to heat stress increases linearly from 0.0 at a critical temperature to a maximum of 1.0 at a limit temperature. The decrease of crop yield is then computed by a normalized production damage index which combines attainable yield and heat stress index for each location. Selection of the most suitable adaptation strategy will be reviewed and discussed in light of the quantified effect on crop yield of the projected change of Tmax extreme events. This study will contribute to MACSUR knowledge Hub within the Joint Programming Initiative on

  4. Projected loss of soil organic carbon in temperate agricultural soils in the 21st century: effects of climate change and carbon input trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiesmeier, Martin; Poeplau, Christopher; Sierra, Carlos A.; Maier, Harald; Frühauf, Cathleen; Hübner, Rico; Kühnel, Anna; Spörlein, Peter; Geuß, Uwe; Hangen, Edzard; Schilling, Bernd; von Lützow, Margit; Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid

    2016-09-01

    Climate change and stagnating crop yields may cause a decline of SOC stocks in agricultural soils leading to considerable CO2 emissions and reduced agricultural productivity. Regional model-based SOC projections are needed to evaluate these potential risks. In this study, we simulated the future SOC development in cropland and grassland soils of Bavaria in the 21st century. Soils from 51 study sites representing the most important soil classes of Central Europe were fractionated and derived SOC pools were used to initialize the RothC soil carbon model. For each site, long-term C inputs were determined using the C allocation method. Model runs were performed for three different C input scenarios as a realistic range of projected yield development. Our modelling approach revealed substantial SOC decreases of 11-16% under an expected mean temperature increase of 3.3 °C assuming unchanged C inputs. For the scenario of 20% reduced C inputs, agricultural SOC stocks are projected to decline by 19-24%. Remarkably, even the optimistic scenario of 20% increased C inputs led to SOC decreases of 3-8%. Projected SOC changes largely differed among investigated soil classes. Our results indicated that C inputs have to increase by 29% to maintain present SOC stocks in agricultural soils.

  5. Projecting the Effects of 21st Century Climate Change on the Distribution and Phenology of Reef Fish Spawning Aggregations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asch, R. G.; Erisman, B.

    2016-02-01

    Spawning fishes often have a narrower window of thermal tolerance than other life history stages. As a result, spawning has been hypothesized to constrain how species will respond to climate change. We assess this hypothesis by combining a global database of fish spawning aggregations with earth system and ecological niche models to project shifts in the spawning distribution and phenology of reef fishes under the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. Nassau grouper (Epinephelus striatus) was selected as the species for a proof-of-concept analysis since it is a top predator on Caribbean coral reefs and is listed by IUCN as endangered due to overfishing at its spawning grounds. The highest probability of encountering E. striatus aggregations occurred at sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 24.5-26.5° C and seasonal SST gradients of 0 to -1° C. Based on a 1981-2000 climatology, our model projected that the highest probability of spawning would occur around Cuba, the Mesoamerican barrier reef, the Bahamas, and other areas of the Caribbean. This coincides with the observed distribution of E. striatus aggregations. By 2081-2100, a 50% decline is projected in the number of months and locations with adequate conditions for E. striatus spawning. Potential spawning habitat for E. striatus shifts northward and eastward, with slight increases in the probability of spawning around Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire. At spawning sites, primary production is projected to increase by a mean of 14%. Higher planktonic production could benefit larval fish growth and survival by providing a greater availability of prey. The E. striatus spawning season is projected to contract and occur later in the year. Two-month delays in phenology are projected at 78% of the sites where E. striatus populations are managed through spawning season sales bans and time/area fishing closures. This implies that adaptive management in response to climate change will be needed for these measures to remain effective.

  6. Girltalk: Energy, Climate and Water in the 21ST Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, H. C.; Osborne, V.; Bush, R.; Bauer, S.; Bourgeois, E.; Brownlee, D.; Clark, C.; Ellins, K. K.; Hempel-Medina, D.; Hernandez, A.; Hovorka, S. D.; Olson, J. E.; Romanak, K.; Smyth, R. C.; Tinker, S.; Torres-Verdin, C.; Williams, I. P.

    2011-12-01

    In preparation for Earth Science Week, The University of Texas at Austin, Striker Communications and Ursuline Academy of Dallas partnered on a GirlTalk event ("Energy, Climate and Water in the 21st Century") to create a two-day (Fri-Sat), community science symposium and open house on critical issues surrounding energy, water and climate. On Friday, over 800 high school girls and 100 teachers from Ursuline participated in hands-on activities (led by faculty, researchers and graduate students from UT Austin and professionals from the surrounding Dallas community), films and discussions, plenary sessions and an expert panel discussion. An opening talk by Dr. Hilary Olson on "Energy, Water and Climate in the 21st Century: Critical Issues for the Global Community" began the day. A series of hands-on activities, and science and technology films with discussion followed. Each girl had an individualized, modular schedule for the day, completing four of the over twenty modules offered. During lunch, Dr. Scott Tinker, Director of the Bureau of Economic Geology, presented a compelling talk on "Time, Technology and Transition", and afterwards girls attended another round of hands-on activities in the afternoon. The day ended with a panel discussion where girls could submit questions to the various participants from the day's activities. The exciting experience of a full day of GirlTalk led many high school girls to volunteer for the middle school event on the following morning (Sat.), when 150 middle school girls and their mentors (parents, teachers) attended a community-wide public event to learn about the energy, water and climate nexus. "Breakfast with a Pro" was hosted by the various professionals. Girls and their mentors enjoyed breakfast and discussion about topics and careers in the earth sciences and engineering with presenters, followed by an informal discussion with a panel of professionals. Next, girls and their mentors were each given a pre-assigned individual

  7. Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rozenzweig, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Ruane, A.C.; Arneth, A.; Boote, K.J.; Folberth, C.; Glotter, M.; Müller, C.; Neumann, K.

    2014-01-01

    Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate

  8. Changes to postgraduate medical education in the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Mehool

    2016-08-01

    Medicine is a constantly evolving profession, especially with the advent of rapid advances in the scientific base that underpins this vocation. In order to ensure that training in medicine is contemporary with the continuous evolution of the profession, there has been a multitude of changes to postgraduate medical education, particularly in the UK. This article aims to provide an overview of relevant key changes to postgraduate medical education in the UK during the 21st century, including changes to the structure, governance and commissioning of medical education, effects of European Working Time Directive on training, recent recommendations in the Future Hospital Commission report and Shape of training report, and recent requirements for accreditation of medical education trainers. Many of these recommendations will require complex discussions often at organisational levels, hopefully with some realistic and pragmatic solutions for implementation.

  9. The Impact Of Climate Change On Production Of Multiple Food Crops In The 21st Century- An Analysis Based On Two Land Surface Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Y.; Jain, A. K.; Lawrence, P.; Kheshgi, H. S.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change presents potential risks to global food supply. To date, understanding of climate change effects on crop production remains uncertain due to (1) uncertainties in projected climate change trends and their spatial and temporal variability; (2) uncertainties in the physiological, genetic and molecular basis of crop adaptation to climate change and adaptive management practices and (3) uncertainties in current land surface models to estimate crop adaptation to climate change. We apply the process-based land surface model, the Integrated Science Assessment model (ISAM), to assess the impact of climate change on the production of row crops (corn, soybean, rice, cotton, sugarcane and wheat) at global and regional scales. The results are compared to the corresponding simulations performed with the crop model in the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). Three questions are addressed: (1) what is the impact of different climate change projections on global crop production; (2) what is the effect of crop adaptation and adaptive management practices on projected crop production; and (3) how do model differences in ISAM and CLM4.5 impact projected global crop production and adaptive management practices over the 21st century. ISAM and CLM4.5 have been included in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). Both models consider the effects of temperature, light and soil water and nitrogen availability on crop photosynthesis and temperature control on crop phenology and carbon allocation. ISAM also considers the adaptation of crop phenology, carbon allocation and structures growth to drought, light stress and N stress. The effects of model differences on projected crop production are evaluated by performing the following experiments. Each model is driven with historical atmospheric forcing data (1901-2005) and projected atmospheric forcing data (2006-2100) under RCP 4.5 or RCP 8.5 from CESM CMIP5 simulations to estimate the effects of different

  10. Projection of global climate change scenarios onto the Hawaiian Islands: Estimating the characteristics of rainfall for the 21st century

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This project will build on existing experience with statistical downscaling methods to derive comprehensive estimates of the future rainfall changes over the...

  11. Projected impacts of 21st century climate change on the distribution of potential habitat for vegetation, forest types and major conifer species across Russia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tchebakova, Nadezda; Parfenova, Elena; Cantin, Alan; Shvetsov, Eugene; Soja, Amber; Conard, Susane

    2013-04-01

    Global simulations have demonstrated the potential for profound effects of GCM-projected climate change on the distribution of terrestrial ecosystems and individual species at all hierarchical levels. We modeled progressions of potential vegetation cover, forest cover and forest types in Russia in the warming climate during the 21st century. We used large-scale bioclimatic models to predict zonal vegetation (RuBCliM), and forest cover (ForCliM) and forest types. A forest type was defined as a combination of a dominant tree conifer and a ground layer. Distributions of vegetation zones (zonobiomes), conifer species and forest types were simulated based on three bioclimatic indices (1) growing degree-days above 5oC ; (2) negative degree-days below 0oC; and (3) an annual moisture index (ratio of growing degree days to annual precipitation). Additionally, the presence/absence of continuous permafrost, identified by active layer depth of 2 m, was explicitly included in the models as limiting the forests and tree species distribution in Siberia. All simulations to predict vegetation change across Russia were run by coupling our bioclimatic models with bioclimatic indices and the permafrost distribution for the baseline period 1971-2000 and for the future decades of 2011-2020, 2041-2050 and 2091-2100. To provide a range of warming we used three global climate models (CGCM3.1, HadCM3 and IPSLCM4) and three climate change scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1). The CGCM model and the B1 scenario projected the smallest temperature increases, and the IPSL model and the A2 scenario projected the greatest temperature increases. We compared the modeled vegetation and the modeled tree species distributions in the contemporary climate to actual vegetation and forest maps using Kappa (K) statistics. RuBioCliM models of Russian zonal vegetation were fairly accurate (K= 0.40). Contemporary major conifer species (Pinus sibirica, Pinus sylvestris, Larix spp., Abies sibirica and Picea obovata

  12. Projections of 21st century climate of the Columbia River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rupp, David E.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Mote, Philip W.

    2017-09-01

    Simulations from 35 global climate models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 provide projections of 21st century climate in the Columbia River Basin under scenarios of anthropogenic activity given by Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The multi-model ensemble 30-year mean annual temperature increases by 2.8 °C (5.0 °C) by late 21st century under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) over the 1979-1990 baseline, with 18% (24%) more warming in summer. By late 21st century, annual precipitation increases by 5% (8%), with an 8% (14%) winter increase and a 4% (10%) summer decrease, but because some models project changes of opposite sign, confidence in these sign changes is lower than those for temperature. Four questions about temperature and precipitation changes were addressed: (1) How and why do climate projections vary seasonally? (2) Is interannual variability in seasonal temperature and precipitation projected to change? (3) What explains the large inter-model spread in the projections? (4) Do projected changes in climate depend on model skill? Changes in precipitation and temperature vary seasonally as a result of changes in large-scale circulation and regional surface energy budget, respectively. Interannual temperature variability decreases slightly during the cool seasons and increases in summer, while interannual precipitation variability increases in all seasons. The magnitude of regional warming is linked to models' global climate sensitivity, whereas internal variability dominates the inter-model spread of precipitation changes. Lastly, GCMs that better reproduce historical climate tend to project greater warming and larger precipitation increases, though these results depend on the evaluation method.

  13. Projections of 21st century climate of the Columbia River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rupp, David E.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Mote, Philip W.

    2016-10-01

    Simulations from 35 global climate models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 provide projections of 21st century climate in the Columbia River Basin under scenarios of anthropogenic activity given by Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The multi-model ensemble 30-year mean annual temperature increases by 2.8 °C (5.0 °C) by late 21st century under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) over the 1979-1990 baseline, with 18% (24%) more warming in summer. By late 21st century, annual precipitation increases by 5% (8%), with an 8% (14%) winter increase and a 4% (10%) summer decrease, but because some models project changes of opposite sign, confidence in these sign changes is lower than those for temperature. Four questions about temperature and precipitation changes were addressed: (1) How and why do climate projections vary seasonally? (2) Is interannual variability in seasonal temperature and precipitation projected to change? (3) What explains the large inter-model spread in the projections? (4) Do projected changes in climate depend on model skill? Changes in precipitation and temperature vary seasonally as a result of changes in large-scale circulation and regional surface energy budget, respectively. Interannual temperature variability decreases slightly during the cool seasons and increases in summer, while interannual precipitation variability increases in all seasons. The magnitude of regional warming is linked to models' global climate sensitivity, whereas internal variability dominates the inter-model spread of precipitation changes. Lastly, GCMs that better reproduce historical climate tend to project greater warming and larger precipitation increases, though these results depend on the evaluation method.

  14. Improving modelled impacts on the flowering of temperate fruit trees in the Iberian Peninsula of climate change projections for 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Pérez-Lopez, David; Sánchez-Sánchez, Enrique; Centeno, Ana; Dosio, Alessandro; Lopez-de-la-Franca, Noelia

    2013-04-01

    Flowering of temperate trees needs winter chilling, being the specific requirements dependent on the variety. This work studied the trend and changes of values of chilling hours for some representative agricultural locations in Spain for the last three decades and their projected changes under climate change scenarios. According to our previous results (Pérez-López et al., 2012), areas traditionally producing fruit as the Ebro (NE of Spain) or Guadalquivir (SO) valleys, Murcia (SE) and Extremadura (SO) could have a major cold reduction of chill-hours. This would drive a change of varieties or species and may enhance the use of chemicals to complete the needs of chill hours for flowering. However, these results showed high uncertainty, partly due to the bias of the climate data used, generated by Regional Climate Models. The chilling hours were calculated with different methods according to the species considered: North Carolina method (Shaltout and Unrath, 1983) was used for apples, Utah method (Richardson et al. 1974) for peach and grapevine and the approach used by De Melo-Abreu et al. (2004) for olive trees. The climate data used as inputs were the results of numerical simulations obtained from a group of regional climate models at high resolution (25 km) from the European Project ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org/) first bias corrected for temperatures and precipitation (Dosio and Paruolo, 2011; Dosio et al., 2012). This work aims to improve the impact projections obtained in Pérez-López et al. (2012). For this purpose, variation of chill-hours between 2nd half of 20th century and 1st half of 21st century at the study locations were recalculated considering 1) a feedback in the dates in which the chilling hours are calculated, to take into account the shift of phenological dates, and 2) substituting the original ENSEMBLES data set of climate used in Pérez-López et al. (2012) by the bias corrected data set. Calculations for the 2nd half of 20th

  15. Mechanisms and Feedbacks Causing Changes in Upper Stratospheric Ozone in the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oman, Luke; Waugh, D. W.; Kawa, S. R.; Stolarski, R. S.; Douglass, A. R.; Newman, P. A.

    2009-01-01

    Stratospheric ozone is expected to increase during the 21st century as the abundance of halogenated ozone-depleting substances decrease to 1960 values. However, climate change will likely alter this "recovery" of stratospheric ozone by changing stratospheric temperatures, circulation, and abundance of reactive chemical species. Here we quantity the contribution of different mechanisms to changes in upper stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 in the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOS CCM), using multiple linear regression analysis applied to simulations using either Alb or A2 greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios. In both these scenarios upper stratospheric ozone has a secular increase over the 21st century. For the simulation using the Alb GHG scenario, this increase is determined by the decrease in halogen amounts and the greenhouse gas induced cooling, with roughly equal contributions from each mechanism. There is a larger cooling in the simulation using the A2 GHG scenario, but also enhanced loss from higher NOy and HOx concentrations, which nearly offsets the increase due to cooler temperatures. The resulting ozone evolutions are similar in the A2 and Alb simulations. The response of ozone due to feedbacks from temperature and HOx changes, related to changing halogen concentrations, are also quantified using simulations with fixed halogen concentrations.

  16. Changes to extreme wave climates of islands within the Western Tropical Pacific throughout the 21st century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with implications for island vulnerability and sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shope, James B.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Erikson, Li H.; Hegermiller, Christie A.

    2016-06-01

    Waves are the dominant influence on coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of tropical Pacific islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions for the 21st century were projected using near-surface wind fields from four atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models (GCM) under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. GCM-derived wind fields forced the global WAVEWATCH-III wave model to generate hourly time series of bulk wave parameters around 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific Ocean for historical (1976-2005), mid-century, and end-century time periods for the December-February and June-August seasons. The December-February regional wave climate is dominated by strong winds and large swell from extratropical cyclones in the north Pacific while the June-August season brings smaller waves generated by the trade winds and swell from Southern Hemisphere extratropical storms. Extreme significant wave heights decreased ( 10.0%) throughout the 21st century under both climate scenarios compared to historical wave conditions and the higher radiative forcing RCP 8.5 scenario displayed a greater and more widespread decrease in extreme significant wave heights compared to the lower forcing RCP 4.5 scenario. An exception was for the end-century June-August season. Offshore of islands in the central equatorial Pacific, extreme significant wave heights displayed the largest changes from historical values. The frequency of extreme events during December-February decreased under RCP 8.5, whereas the frequency increased under RCP 4.5. Mean wave directions rotated more than 30° clockwise at several locations during June-August, which could indicate a weakening of the trade winds' influence on extreme wave directions and increasing dominance of Southern Ocean swell. The results of this study underscore that December-February large wave events will become smaller and less frequent in most regions, reducing the likelihood and magnitude of wave

  17. Stratospheric Temperature Changes and Ozone Recovery in the 21st Century

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HU Yongyun; XIA Yan; GAO Mei; LU Daren

    2009-01-01

    Increasing greenhouse gases and likely ozone recovery will be the two most important factors influencing changes in stratospheric temperatures in the 21st century. The radiative effect of increasing greenhouse gases will cause cooling in the stratosphere, while ozone recovery will lead to stratospheric warming. To investigate how stratospheric temperatures change under the two opposite forcings in the 21st century, we use observed ozone and reanalysis data as well as simulation results from four coupled oceanic and atmospheric general circulation models (GISS-ER, GFDL-CM20, NCAR-CCSM3, and UKMO-HadCM3) used in the IPCC (Intergovernment Panel for Climate Change) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Observational analysis shows that total column ozone and lower stratospheric temperatures all show increasing in the past 10 years, while middle stratospheric temperatures demonstrate cooling. IPCC AR4 simulations show that greenhouse forcing alone will lead to stratospheric cooling. However, with forcing of both increasing greenhouse gases and ozone recovery, the middle stratosphere will be cooled, while the lower stratosphere will be warmed. Warming magnitudes vary from one model to another. UKMO-HadCM3 generates relatively strong warming for all three greenhouse scenarios, and warming extends to 40 hPa. GFDL-CM20 and NCAR-CCSM3 produce weak warming, and warming mainly exists at lower levels, below about 60 hPa. In addition, we also discuss the effect of temperature changes on ozone recovery.

  18. Predicting 21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durner, G.M.; Douglas, D.C.; Nielson, R.M.; Amstrup, Steven C.; McDonald, T.L.; Stirling, I.; Mauritzen, Mette; Born, E.W.; Wiig, O.; Deweaver, E.; Serreze, M.C.; Belikov, Stanislav; Holland, M.M.; Maslanik, J.; Aars, J.; Bailey, D.A.; Derocher, A.E.

    2009-01-01

    Projections of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sea ice habitat distribution in the polar basin during the 21st century were developed to understand the consequences of anticipated sea ice reductions on polar bear populations. We used location data from satellitecollared polar bears and environmental data (e.g., bathymetry, distance to coastlines, and sea ice) collected from 1985 to 1995 to build resource selection functions (RSFs). RSFs described habitats that polar bears preferred in summer, autumn, winter, and spring. When applied to independent data from 1996 to 2006, the RSFs consistently identified habitats most frequently used by polar bears. We applied the RSFs to monthly maps of 21st-century sea ice concentration projected by 10 general circulation models (GCMs) used in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, under the A1B greenhouse gas forcing scenario. Despite variation in their projections, all GCMs indicated habitat losses in the polar basin during the 21st century. Losses in the highest-valued RSF habitat (optimal habitat) were greatest in the southern seas of the polar basin, especially the Chukchi and Barents seas, and least along the Arctic Ocean shores of Banks Island to northern Greenland. Mean loss of optimal polar bear habitat was greatest during summer; from an observed 1.0 million km2 in 1985-1995 (baseline) to a projected multi-model mean of 0.32 million km2 in 2090-2099 (-68% change). Projected winter losses of polar bear habitat were less: from 1.7 million km2 in 1985-1995 to 1.4 million km2 in 2090-2099 (-17% change). Habitat losses based on GCM multi-model means may be conservative; simulated rates of habitat loss during 1985-2006 from many GCMs were less than the actual observed rates of loss. Although a reduction in the total amount of optimal habitat will likely reduce polar bear populations, exact relationships between habitat losses and population demographics remain unknown. Density and energetic

  19. Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Wanders

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that considers adaptation to future changes in hydrological regime. The global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was used to simulate daily discharge at 0.5° globally for 1971–2099. The model was forced with CMIP5 climate projections taken from five GCMs and four emission scenarios (RCPs, from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Drought events occur when discharge is below a threshold. The conventional variable threshold (VTM was calculated by deriving the threshold from the period 1971–2000. The transient variable threshold (VTMt is a non-stationary approach, where the threshold is based on the discharge values of the previous 30 years implying the threshold to vary every year during the 21st century. The VTMt adjusts to gradual changes in the hydrological regime as response to climate change. Results show a significant negative trend in the low flow regime over the 21st century for large parts of South America, southern Africa, Australia and the Mediterranean. In 40–52% of the world reduced low flows are projected, while increased low flows are found in the snow dominated climates. In 27% of the global area both the drought duration and the deficit volume are expected to increase when applying the VTMt. However, this area will significantly increase to 62% when the VTM is applied. The mean global area in drought, with the VTMt, remains rather constant (11.7 to 13.4%, compared to the substantial increase when the VTM is applied (11.7 to 20%. The study illustrates that an alternative drought identification that considers adaptation to an altered hydrological regime, has a substantial influence on future hydrological drought characteristics.

  20. Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Lanen, Henny A. J.; Wanders, Niko; Wada, Yoshihide

    2015-04-01

    Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that considers adaptation to future changes in hydrological regime. The global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was used to simulate daily discharge at 0.5o globally for 1971-2099. The model was forced with CMIP5 climate projections taken from five global circulation models (GCMs) and four emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways, RCPs), from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). Drought events occur when discharge is below a threshold. The conventional variable threshold (VTM) was calculated by deriving the threshold from the period 1971-2000. The transient variable threshold (VTMt) is a non-stationary approach, where the threshold is based on the discharge of the previous 30 years implying the threshold to vary every year during the 21st century. The VTMt adjusts to gradual changes in the hydrological regime as response to climate change. Results show a significant negative trend in the low flow regime over the 21st century for large parts of South America, southern Africa, Australia and the Mediterranean. In 40-52% of the world reduced low flows are projected, while increased low flows are found in the snow-dominated climates. In 27% of the global area both the drought duration and the deficit volume are expected to increase when applying the VTMt. However, this area will significantly increase to 62% when the VTM is applied. The mean global area in drought, with the VTMt, remains rather constant (11.7 to 13.4 %), compared to the substantial increase when the VTM is applied (11.7 to 20 %). The study illustrates that an alternative drought identification that considers adaptation to an altered hydrological regime has a substantial

  1. Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Wanders

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that considers adaptation to future changes in hydrological regime. The global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was used to simulate daily discharge at 0.5° globally for 1971–2099. The model was forced with CMIP5 climate projections taken from five global circulation models (GCMs and four emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways, RCPs, from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Drought events occur when discharge is below a threshold. The conventional variable threshold (VTM was calculated by deriving the threshold from the period 1971–2000. The transient variable threshold (VTMt is a non-stationary approach, where the threshold is based on the discharge values of the previous 30 years implying the threshold to vary every year during the 21st century. The VTMt adjusts to gradual changes in the hydrological regime as response to climate change. Results show a significant negative trend in the low flow regime over the 21st century for large parts of South America, southern Africa, Australia and the Mediterranean. In 40–52% of the world reduced low flows are projected, while increased low flows are found in the snow-dominated climates. In 27% of the global area both the drought duration and the deficit volume are expected to increase when applying the VTMt. However, this area will significantly increase to 62% when the VTM is applied. The mean global area in drought, with the VTMt, remains rather constant (11.7 to 13.4%, compared to the substantial increase when the VTM is applied (11.7 to 20%. The study illustrates that an alternative drought identification that considers adaptation to an altered hydrological regime has a

  2. Changes to extreme wave climates of islands within the Western Tropical Pacific throughout the 21st century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with implications for island vulnerability and sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shope, James B.; Storlazzi, Curt; Erikson, Li; Hegermiller, Christie

    2016-01-01

    Waves are the dominant influence on coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of tropical Pacific islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions for the 21st century were projected using near-surface wind fields from four atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models (GCM) under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. GCM-derived wind fields forced the global WAVEWATCH-III wave model to generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters around 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific Ocean for historical (1976–2005), mid-, and end-of-century time periods. Extreme significant wave heights decreased (~10.0%) throughout the 21st century under both climate scenarios compared to historical wave conditions and the higher radiative forcing 8.5 scenario displayed a greater and more widespread decrease in extreme significant wave heights compared to the lower forcing 4.5 scenario. An exception was for the end-of-century June–August season. Offshore of islands in the central equatorial Pacific, extreme significant wave heights displayed the largest changes from historical values. The frequency of extreme events during December–February decreased under RCP 8.5, whereas the frequency increased under RCP 4.5. Mean wave directions often rotated more than 30° clockwise at several locations during June–August, which could indicate a weakening of the trade winds’ influence on extreme wave directions and increasing dominance of Southern Ocean swell or eastern shift of storm tracks. The projected changes in extreme wave heights, directions of extreme events, and frequencies at which extreme events occur will likely result in changes to the morphology and sustainability of island nations.

  3. Projections of Climate Change in the 21st Century in Guizhou under Various Emission Scenarios%不同排放情景下贵州21世纪气候变化预估

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张娇艳; 白慧; 吴战平; 严小冬; 徐智慧

    2011-01-01

    Based on the simulation outputs provided by IPCC -AR4, the possible climate change in Guizhou during the 21 st century has been analyzed under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Results indicate that the climate would become warmer and wetter in Guizhou in the 21st century due to the increase in gas emission. In the late 21st Century (2071 -2099 ), the temperature would be 2 - 3.2℃ higher than the normal while the rainfall would increase by 3.8 -5.8%. Moreover, under the circumstances of SRES A2, A1B and B1, the annual mean increase in temperature (rainfall) would be 4.0℃/100a( 136mm/100a), 3.6℃/100a(96mm/100a) and 2.1℃/ 100a(61mm/100a) respectively, which suggests a warmer (wetter) trend with more gas emission. According to the seasonal characteristics, the winter temperature increase is higher than other seasons in different emission sce- narios. The winter precipitation does not show any significant variations but the rainfalls in other seasons increase. Additionally, the precipitations during the early 21st century would decrease considering the effects of the SRES A1B and B1 but show no significant change with SRES A2.%利用IPCCAR4提供的模式预估结果,分析了不同排放情景下21世纪贵州气候变化特征,结果表明:21世纪由于人类排放的增加,贵州省将继续变暖、变湿。到21世纪后期(2071--2099年)贵州省温度比常年高2~3,2℃,降水比常年多3.8%-5.8%。且在SRESA.2(高排放)、A1B(中排放)、B1(低排放)情景下贵州省年平均温度(降水)整体变化幅度分别为4.0℃/100a(136mm/100a)、3.6℃/100a(96mm/100a)、2.1℃/100a(61mm/100a),体现了排放量越高,增温(增湿)越显著的特征。从季节特征来看,不同情景下冬季温度的增加趋势都大于其它季节;冬季降水预估没有明显的变化趋势,其余季节基本上以上

  4. Spatial distribution of temperature extremes changes in Poland in 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jędruszkiewicz, Joanna

    2013-04-01

    There is a general agreement that changes in the frequency or intensity of extreme weather and climate events have profound impacts on both human society and the economy. In the recent years a numerous weather events have affected human health and caused enormous economic losses. A long-lasting heat waves influence society far more than rare occurred extreme high temperature. On the other hand a winter warming and frequent exceedance of 0°C during winter will be disruptive i.e. for the wheel transport and roads condition in Poland. This work is focused on the study of the spatial diversity of minimum and maximum temperature in 21st century in Poland. Firstly the shift in distribution (PDF) and cumulative distribution (CDF) of the daily maximum temperature in summer and minimum temperature in winter between control and scenario periods was compared among different part of the country. Secondly the changes in the characteristic percentiles of the temperature extremes were analyzed. Furthermore the spatial changes in the duration and frequency of the heat waves in Poland were studied. Moreover the future prediction of changes in characteristic days as hot days (Tmax≥30°C), summer days (Tmax≥25°C), tropical nights (Tmin≥20°C), frost days (Tmin<0°C), etc. were spatially compared. The diurnal temperature range (DTR) is expected to change remarkably in 21st century depending on the area of Poland. The daily minimum and maximum 2-meter temperature date have been obtained from seven different regional climate models and corrected by quintile mapping method afterwards. The Polish station data for the control period have been gained from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, National Research Institute.

  5. Clear sky UV simulations for the 21st century based on ozone and temperature projections from Chemistry-Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Tourpali

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available We have estimated changes in surface solar ultraviolet (UV radiation under cloud free conditions in the 21st century based on simulations of 11 coupled Chemistry-Climate Models (CCMs. The total ozone columns and vertical profiles of ozone and temperature projected from CCMs were used as input to a radiative transfer model in order to calculate the corresponding erythemal irradiance levels. Time series of monthly erythemal irradiance received at the surface during local noon are presented for the period 1960 to 2100. Starting from the first decade of the 21st century, the surface erythemal irradiance decreases globally as a result of the projected stratospheric ozone recovery at rates that are larger in the first half of the 21st century and smaller towards its end. This decreasing tendency varies with latitude, being more pronounced over areas where stratospheric ozone has been depleted the most after 1980. Between 2000 and 2100 surface erythemal irradiance is projected to decrease over midlatitudes by 5 to 15%, while at the southern high latitudes the decrease is twice as much. In this study we have not included effects from changes in cloudiness, surface reflectivity and tropospheric aerosol loading, which will likely be affected in the future due to climate change. Consequently, over some areas the actual changes in future UV radiation may be different depending on the evolution of these parameters.

  6. Ecosystem vulnerability of China under B2 climate scenario in the 21st century

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU ShaoHong; DAI ErFu; HUANG Mei; SHAO XueMei; LI ShuangCheng; TAO Bo

    2007-01-01

    This paper applies climate change scenarios in China based on the SRES assumptions with the help of RCMs projections by PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies) system introduced to China from.he Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research at a high-resolution (50 kmx50 km)over China.This research focuses on B2 scenario of SRES.A biogeochemical model "Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model (AV1M2)" was applied to simulating ecosystem status in the 21st century.Then vulnerability of ecosystems was assessed based on a set of index of mainly net primary production (NPP) of vegetation.Results show that climate change would affect ecosystem of China severely and there would be a worse trend with the lapse of time.The regions where having vulnerable ecological background would have heavier impacts while some regions with better ecological background would also receive serious impacts.Extreme climate even would bring about worse impact on the ecosystems.Open shrub and desert steppe would be the two most affected types.When the extreme events happen,vulnerable ecosystem would extend to part of defoliate broad-leaved forest,woody grassland and evergreen conifer forest.Climate change would not always be negative.It could be of some benefit to cold region during the near-term.However,in view of mid-term to long-term negative impact on ecosystem vulnerability would be enormously.

  7. The 21st century Museum Climatic Monitoring System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, W.-S.

    2015-08-01

    Technology has provided us work convenience and shaped our quality of life; it has enabled an unprecedented level of access to knowledge by flipping screen of a hand-held electronic device without going elsewhere but stay connected wireless communication. This kind of technology has been broadly acquired at museums in Hong Kong for preserving their valuable collections. Similar gadget was applied on the monitoring system to record climatic conditions of museum's stores and galleries. Sensors have been equipped with chips for the wireless transmission of RH/Temp, without installation of any conduit or LAN lines. Useful and important data will then be grouped into a packet format for efficient delivery. As long as the static IP address of the target workstation has been set, data can be accurately retrieved from one place to another via commercially available browsers, such as: Firefox or Internet Explorer, even on hand-held electronic devices. This paper will discuss the detail of this system, its pros and cons in comparison with the old model. After all, the new technology is highly significant in supporting the current needs and the future developments of the museum service.

  8. Probabilistic projections for 21st century European climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. R. Harris

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available We present joint probability distribution functions of future seasonal-mean changes in surface air temperature and precipitation for the European region for the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The probabilistic projections quantify uncertainties in the leading physical, chemical and biological feedbacks and combine information from perturbed physics ensembles, multi-model ensembles and observations.

  9. Radiative forcing and climate response to projected 21st century aerosol decreases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. M. Westervelt

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available It is widely expected that global emissions of atmospheric aerosols and their precursors will decrease strongly throughout the remainder of the 21st century, due to emission reduction policies enacted to protect human health. For instance, global emissions of aerosols and their precursors are projected to decrease by as much as 80% by the year 2100, according to the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP scenarios. The removal of aerosols will cause unintended climate consequences, including an unmasking of global warming from long-lived greenhouse gases. We use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 3 (GFDL CM3 to simulate future climate over the 21st century with and without the aerosol emission changes projected by each of the RCPs in order to isolate the radiative forcing and climate response resulting from the aerosol reductions. We find that the projected global radiative forcing and climate response due to aerosol decreases do not vary significantly across the four RCPs by 2100, although there is some mid-century variation, especially in cloud droplet effective radius, that closely follows the RCP emissions and energy consumption projections. Up to 1 W m−2 of radiative forcing may be unmasked globally from 2005 to 2100 due to reductions in aerosol and precursor emissions, leading to average global temperature increases up to 1 K and global precipitation rate increases up to 0.09 mm d−1. Regionally and locally, climate impacts can be much larger, with a 2.1 K warming projected over China, Japan, and Korea due to the reduced aerosol emissions in RCP8.5, as well as nearly a 0.2 mm d−1 precipitation increase, a 7 g m−2 LWP decrease, and a 2 μm increase in cloud droplet effective radius. Future aerosol decreases could be responsible for 30–40% of total climate warming by 2100 in East Asia, even under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP8.5. The expected unmasking of global warming caused

  10. The physical drivers of historical and 21st century global precipitation changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorpe, Livia; Andrews, Timothy

    2014-05-01

    Historical and 21st century global precipitation changes are investigated using data from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Atmosphere-Ocean-General-Circulation-Models (AOGCMs) and a simple energy-balance model. In the simple model, precipitation change in response to a given top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing is calculated as the sum of a response to the surface warming and a direct ‘adjustment’ response to the atmospheric radiative forcing. This simple model allows the adjustment in global mean precipitation to atmospheric radiative forcing from different forcing agents to be examined separately and emulates the AOGCMs well. During the historical period the AOGCMs simulate little global precipitation change despite an increase in global temperature—at the end of the historical period, global multi-model mean precipitation has increased by about 0.03 mm day-1, while the global multi-model mean surface temperature has warmed by about 1 K, both relative to the pre-industrial control means. This is because there is a large direct effect from CO2 and black carbon atmospheric forcing that opposes the increase in precipitation from surface warming. In the 21st century scenarios, the opposing effect from black carbon declines and the increase in global precipitation due to surface warming dominates. The cause of the spread between models in the global precipitation projections (which can be up to 0.25 mm day-1) is examined and found to come mainly from uncertainty in the climate sensitivity. The spatial distribution of precipitation change is found to be dominated by the response to surface warming. It is concluded that AOGCM global precipitation projections are in line with expectations based on our understanding of how the energy and water cycles are physically linked.

  11. Moving the science of behavioral change into the 21st century: part 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saranummi, Niilo; Spruijt-Metz, Donna; Intille, Stephen S; Korhonen, Ilkka; Nilsen, Wendy J; Pavel, Misha

    2013-01-01

    What follows is the second part of a two-part special series of articles that illustrate through examples the breadth and depth of the field of behavioral-change science and highlight the challenges in moving it in to the 21st century. The first part appeared in the September/October issue of IEEE Pulse (see [1]-[3]).

  12. Assessing changes in precipitation and temperature over the Iberian Peninsula during the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernardino, Mariana; Pimpão Silva, Álvaro; Espírito Santo, Fátima; Pinto, Armando

    2016-04-01

    Climate is a major factor driving the spatio-temporal distribution of most ecological systems and human activities, due to their vulnerability to inter-annual climate variability and to climate change. These systems are very sensitive to changes in traditional patterns of regional climate but also to the frequency and magnitude of extreme events. Changes in surface air temperature extremes and precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula were investigated using one of the high resolution climate simulations produced by the Euro-Cordex consortium. Two sets of simulations forced with the new IPCC AR5 emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km were used to compute climate indices defined by the European Climate Assessment (ECA) project, for present (1970-2010) and for the 21st century climates. Changes in magnitude and in the spatial patterns of these indices were evaluated and once the expected impacts in different sectors are related with these changes, the results provide information to be used in sectoral adaption measures, namely in tourism, water, agriculture, human health, energy and infrastructures.

  13. Climate change and rising energy costs will change everything: a new mindset and action plan for 21st century public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCartney, G; Hanlon, P; Romanes, F

    2008-07-01

    Western governments currently prioritize economic growth and the pursuit of profit above alternative goals of sustainability, health and equality. Climate change and rising energy costs are challenging this consensus. The realization of the transformation required to meet these challenges has provoked denial and conflict, but could lead to a more positive response which leads to a health dividend; enhanced well-being, less overconsumption and greater equality. This paper argues that public health can make its best contribution by adopting a new mindset, discourse, methodology and set of tasks.

  14. Exploring consensus in 21st century projections of climatically suitable areas for African vertebrates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Raquel A; Burgess, Neil D; Cabeza, Mar; Rahbek, Carsten; Araújo, Miguel B

    2012-01-01

    Africa is predicted to be highly vulnerable to 21st century climatic changes. Assessing the impacts of these changes on Africa's biodiversity is, however, plagued by uncertainties, and markedly different results can be obtained from alternative bioclimatic envelope models or future climate projections. Using an ensemble forecasting framework, we examine projections of future shifts in climatic suitability, and their methodological uncertainties, for over 2500 species of mammals, birds, amphibians and snakes in sub-Saharan Africa. To summarize a priori the variability in the ensemble of 17 general circulation models, we introduce a consensus methodology that combines co-varying models. Thus, we quantify and map the relative contribution to uncertainty of seven bioclimatic envelope models, three multi-model climate projections and three emissions scenarios, and explore the resulting variability in species turnover estimates. We show that bioclimatic envelope models contribute most to variability, particularly in projected novel climatic conditions over Sahelian and southern Saharan Africa. To summarize agreements among projections from the bioclimatic envelope models we compare five consensus methodologies, which generally increase or retain projection accuracy and provide consistent estimates of species turnover. Variability from emissions scenarios increases towards late-century and affects southern regions of high species turnover centred in arid Namibia. Twofold differences in median species turnover across the study area emerge among alternative climate projections and emissions scenarios. Our ensemble of projections underscores the potential bias when using a single algorithm or climate projection for Africa, and provides a cautious first approximation of the potential exposure of sub-Saharan African vertebrates to climatic changes. The future use and further development of bioclimatic envelope modelling will hinge on the interpretation of results in the light

  15. Assessment of potential suspended sediment yield in Japan in the 21st century with reference to the general circulation model climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouri, Goro; Golosov, Valentin; Chalov, Sergey; Takizawa, Satoshi; Oguma, Kumiko; Yoshimura, Kei; Shiiba, Michiharu; Hori, Tomoharu; Oki, Taikan

    2013-03-01

    In recent decades, soil erosion by water has become a worldwide problem, especially with climate change and progressive declines in the ratio of natural resources to human populations. Changes in future climate will influence soil erosion, particularly suspended sediment (SS) yield, and alter the effectiveness of water resources management strategies from a water quality perspective. We qualitatively assessed future changes in SS yield in Japan. We focused on the impacts of future hydrological changes projected by two models, the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) and the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), whose results have produced monthly data sets for the whole of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on SS in Japan depend on the balance between changes in climatic and geologic factors. Methods for assessing impact using the catchment simulator were expanded to estimate the SS yield for the whole of Japan. The results indicated that SS generation will increase by the 2090s, with an 8% increase predicted using MRI-GCM data and a 24% increase using MIROC data, compared to present-day values measured by the Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System (AMEDAS) of the Japan Meteorological Agency. Analysis by month showed the largest increases in SS in September, related to the frequency of extreme events such as typhoons. Increased SS can have negative effects on both society and the environment, including reduced crop productivity, worsened water quality, lower effective reservoir water levels, flooding and habitat destruction. Prediction of the impacts of future climate change on SS generation is crucial for effective environmental planning and management.

  16. The Nanchang communication about the potential for the implementation of conservation practices for climate change mitigation and adaptation to achieve food security in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Several recent peer reviewed manuscripts have reported on the great challenges humanity is confronting during the XXI century, including a changing climate, depletion of water resources from groundwater and/or snow caps sources that are needed for agricultural production, deforestation, desertificat...

  17. The Guanajuato Communication about the Potential for Implementation of Conservation Practices for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation to Achieve Food Security in Mexico During the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    The scientific literature reports that climate change will impact weather in North America, with projections for a drier and hotter southeastern United States and northwestern Mexico. The areas of Mexico that are projected to be impacted cover important grain areas of the country. Additionally, seve...

  18. Large-Scale Range Collapse of Hawaiian Forest Birds under Climate Change and the Need for 21st Century Conservation Options [corrected].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortini, Lucas B; Vorsino, Adam E; Amidon, Fred A; Paxton, Eben H; Jacobi, James D

    2015-01-01

    Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria's life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics) are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows). Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations.

  19. Large-Scale Range Collapse of Hawaiian Forest Birds under Climate Change and the Need for 21st Century Conservation Options [corrected].

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucas B Fortini

    Full Text Available Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria's life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows. Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations.

  20. The effects of future nationwide forest transition to discharge in the 21st century with regard to general circulation model climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouri, Goro; Nakano, Katsuhiro; Tsuyama, Ikutaro; Tanaka, Nobuyuki

    2016-08-01

    Forest disturbance (or land-cover change) and climatic variability are commonly recognised as two major drivers interactively influencing hydrology in forested watersheds. Future climate changes and corresponding changes in forest type and distribution are expected to generate changes in rainfall runoff that pose a threat to river catchments. It is therefore important to understand how future climate changes will effect average rainfall distribution and temperature and what effect this will have upon forest types across Japan. Recent deforestation of the present-day coniferous forest and expected increases in evergreen forest are shown to influence runoff processes and, therefore, to influence future runoff conditions. We strongly recommend that variations in forest type be considered in future plans to ameliorate projected climate changes. This will help to improve water retention and storage capacities, enhance the flood protection function of forests, and improve human health. We qualitatively assessed future changes in runoff including the effects of variation in forest type across Japan. Four general circulation models (GCMs) were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model. The simulations consisted of an ensemble including multiple physics configurations and different reference concentration pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5), the results of which have produced monthly data sets for the whole of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on forest type in Japan are based on the balance amongst changes in rainfall distribution, temperature and hydrological factors. Methods for assessing the impact of such changes include the

  1. Assessment of spatiotemporal variations in the fluvial wash-load component in the 21st century with regard to GCM climate change scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mouri, Goro, E-mail: mouri@rainbow.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp

    2015-11-15

    For stream water, in which a relationship exists between wash-load concentration and discharge, an estimate of fine-sediment delivery may be obtained from a traditional fluvial wash-load rating curve. Here, we demonstrate that the remaining wash-load material load can be estimated from a traditional empirical principle on a nationwide scale. The traditional technique was applied to stream water for the whole of Japan. Four typical GCMs were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields for the following regional climate models to assess the wash-load component based on rating curves: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model. The simulations consisted of an ensemble, including multiple physics configurations and different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), which was used to produce monthly datasets for the whole country of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on fluvial wash load in Japanese stream water were based on the balance of changes in hydrological factors. The annual and seasonal variations of the fluvial wash load were assessed from the result of the ensemble analysis in consideration of the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission scenarios. The determined results for the amount of wash load increase range from approximately 20 to 110% in the 2040s, especially along part of the Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Japan regions. In the 2090s, the amount of wash load is projected to increase by more than 50% over the whole of Japan. The assessment indicates that seasonal variation is particularly important because the rainy and typhoon seasons, which include extreme events, are the dominant seasons. Because fluvial wash-load-component turbidity

  2. Evaluation of local adaptation strategies to climate change of maize crop in Andalusia for the first half of 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabaldón, Clara; Lorite, Ignacio J.; Inés Mínguez, M.; Dosio, Alessandro; Sánchez-Sánchez, Enrique; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

    2013-04-01

    The objective of this work is to generate and analyse adaptation strategies to cope with impacts of climate change on cereal cropping systems in Andalusia (Southern Spain) in a semi-arid environment, with focus on extreme events. In Andalusia, located in the South of the Iberian Peninsula, cereals crops may be affected by the increase in average temperatures, the precipitation variability and the possible extreme events. Those impacts may cause a decrease in both water availability and the pollination rate resulting on a decrease in yield and the farmer's profitability. Designing local and regional adaptation strategies to reduce these negative impacts is necessary. This study is focused on irrigated maize on five Andalusia locations. The Andalusia Network of Agricultural Trials (RAEA in Spanish) provided the experimental crop and soil data, and the observed climate data were obtained from the Agroclimatic Information Network of Andalusia and the Spanish National Meteorological Agency (AEMET in Spanish). The data for future climate scenarios (2013-2050) were generated by Dosio and Paruolo (2011) and Dosio et al. (2012), who corrected the bias of ENSEMBLES data for maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation. ENSEMBLES data were the results of numerical simulations obtained from a group of regional climate models at high resolution (25 km) from the European Project ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org/). Crop models considered were CERES-maize (Jones and Kiniry, 1986) under DSSAT platform, and CropSyst (Stockle et al., 2003). Those crop models were applied only on locations were calibration and validation were done. The effects of the adaptations strategies, such as changes in sowing dates or choice of cultivar, were evaluated regarding water consumption; changes in phenological dates were also analysed to compare with occurrence of extreme events of maximum temperature. These events represent a threat on summer crops due to the reduction on the duration of

  3. Influence of isoprene chemical mechanism on modelled changes in tropospheric ozone due to climate and land use over the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. J. Squire

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Isoprene is a precursor to tropospheric ozone, a key pollutant and greenhouse gas. Anthropogenic activity over the coming century is likely to cause large changes in atmospheric CO2 levels, climate and land use, all of which will alter the global vegetation distribution leading to changes in isoprene emissions. Previous studies have used global chemistry–climate models to assess how possible changes in climate and land use could affect isoprene emissions and hence tropospheric ozone. The chemistry of isoprene oxidation, which can alter the concentration of ozone, is highly complex, therefore it must be parameterised in these models. In this work we compare the effect of four different reduced isoprene chemical mechanisms, all currently used in Earth-system models, on tropospheric ozone. Using a box model we compare ozone in these reduced schemes to that in a more explicit scheme (the MCM over a range of NOx and isoprene emissions, through the use of O3 isopleths. We find that there is some variability, especially at high isoprene emissions, caused by differences in isoprene-derived NOx reservoir species. A global model is then used to examine how the different reduced schemes respond to potential future changes in climate, isoprene emissions, anthropogenic emissions and land use change. We find that, particularly in isoprene rich regions, the response of the schemes varies considerably. The wide ranging response is due to differences in the types of peroxy radicals produced by isoprene oxidation, and their relative rates of reaction towards NO, leading to ozone formation, or HO2, leading to termination. Also important is the yield of isoprene-nitrates and peroxyacyl nitrate precursors from isoprene oxidation. Those schemes that produce less of these NOx reservoir species, tend to produce more ozone locally and less away from the source region. Additionally, by combining the emissions and O3 data from all of the global model integrations, we

  4. Kharlamova, N. F. Climate Changes over the 20th and 21st Centuries in the Upper Basin of the Ob and Irtysh Rivers (Altai Region)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedorovna, K. N., II

    2015-12-01

    The Russian climate is more sensitive to global warming than the climate in many other parts of the world. According to the Second Climate Change National Assessment, since the mid-1970s, the average temperature has been rising with rate of 0.43 ° C / 10 years, which is more than two times higher than the rate of global warming. In the Altai region, the rate of temperature change is higher than the average for Russia with an annual surface air temperature increase equal to 1.8°C the 20th century. The maximum value of this increase the past 50 years (1963-2013) was found in the intermountain basins of Altai (+ 2.6°C) mainly due to the winter and spring warming with changes in the summer season being considerably smaller. This warming is accompanied with negative tendencies in annual precipitation over the entire Altai Krai. The mountain ranges of Altai are called the "water tower" of Northern Eurasia. The northward flow of numerous rivers streaming down from these ranges in the Basin of the Ob and the Irtysh Rivers is formed by melting of Altai glaciers and snowfields. Since the middle of the 19th century the largest glaciers in the Altai have retreated by 1.5-2 km and the thickness of their tails decreased by 50-70 m. The reduction of mountain glaciers poses a threat of depletion of water flow to major agricultural regions downstream affecting human activity and even the drinking water availability. Permafrost in the Altai Mountains is actively degraded (thawing), which represents a danger for infrastructure (first of all for roads and pipelines) and increases risk of catastrophic events (landslides, mudflows). Continued warming could contribute to a significant reduction of water resources, biodiversity and other negative processes in the region.The reported study was partially supported by the Russian Foundation for Baseline Research (project No. 15-45-04450).

  5. Isolating the effects of climate change in the variation of secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA) in Europe for the 21st century (1991-2100)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Jose Gomez-Navarro, Juan; Jerez, Sonia; Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; Garcia-Valero, Juan Andres; Montavez, Juan Pedro

    2011-02-01

    The analysis of the influence of future climatic variations on air quality needs of methods that give a space-time display of large atmospheric data related to air pollution. Here a new approach in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the patterns of variation of secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA) over Europe is presented. The most widely used method of analysis (selected time-slices, future-minus-present method) is very sensitive to the chosen control and future periods because of the internal variability of the climate system. In order to overcome this limitation, full transient simulations for the period 1991-2100 under the SRES A2 scenario are analysed by the Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) methodology in order minimise the uncertainty associated to the internal variability due to the longer time series obtained. The results indicate that the EOF1 accounts for around 30-45% of the total variance for the SIA levels and points out a general increase of its trend over the entire domain ( p 0.1). The correlation between SIA and meteorological parameters indicates that the trends and patterns of variation of aerosols are related to the higher temperature projected for the future climate. It favours the formation of sulphates and ammonium (increasing the concentrations of atmospheric oxidants) and the decomposition of ammonium nitrate, remaining in the gas phase. Further, the decreases in precipitation have a strong effect on the frequency of the washout and therefore in the levels of aerosols. The concentrations of aerosols decrease with increasing precipitation as wet deposition provides the main aerosol sink. The trend from a decreasing mixing height found in several areas of Europe is frequently related to a decrease in precipitation, representing an adding effect for the enhanced future SIA concentrations.

  6. Influence of isoprene chemical mechanism on modelled changes in tropospheric ozone due to climate and land use over the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Squire, O. J.; Archibald, A. T.; Griffiths, P. T.; Jenkin, M. E.; Smith, D.; Pyle, J. A.

    2015-05-01

    Isoprene is a~precursor to tropospheric ozone, a key pollutant and greenhouse gas. Anthropogenic activity over the coming century is likely to cause large changes in atmospheric CO2 levels, climate and land use, all of which will alter the global vegetation distribution leading to changes in isoprene emissions. Previous studies have used global chemistry-climate models to assess how possible changes in climate and land use could affect isoprene emissions and hence tropospheric ozone. The chemistry of isoprene oxidation, which can alter the concentration of ozone, is highly complex, therefore it must be parameterised in these models. In this work, we compare the effect of four different reduced isoprene chemical mechanisms, all currently used in Earth system models, on tropospheric ozone. Using a box model we compare ozone in these reduced schemes to that in a more explicit scheme (the Master Chemical Mechanism) over a range of NOx and isoprene emissions, through the use of O3 isopleths. We find that there is some variability, especially at high isoprene emissions, caused by differences in isoprene-derived NOx reservoir species. A global model is then used to examine how the different reduced schemes respond to potential future changes in climate, isoprene emissions, anthropogenic emissions and land use change. We find that, particularly in isoprene-rich regions, the response of the schemes varies considerably. The wide-ranging response is due to differences in the model descriptions of the peroxy radical chemistry, particularly their relative rates of reaction towards NO, leading to ozone formation, or HO2, leading to termination. Also important is the yield of isoprene nitrates and peroxyacyl nitrate precursors from isoprene oxidation. Those schemes that produce less of these NOx reservoir species, tend to produce more ozone locally and less away from the source region. We also note changes in other key oxidants such as NO3 and OH (due to the inclusion of

  7. Long-range Prediction of climatic Change in the Eastern Seaboard of Thailand over the 21st Century using various Downscaling Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bejranonda, Werapol; Koch, Manfred; Koontanakulvong, Sucharit

    2010-05-01

    Triggered by a long drought, a huge water supply crisis took place at the Eastern Seaboard of Thailand (east of the Gulf of Thailand) in 2005. In that year no rainfall occurred for four months after the beginning of the rainy season which led to the situation that the industrial estates of the Eastern Seaboard were not able to fully operate. Normally, most of the urban and industrial water used in this coastal region along east of the Gulf of Thailand, which is part of the Pacific Ocean, is surface water stored in a large-scale reservoir-network across the main watershed in the region. Thus the three major reservoirs usually gather water from monsoon storms that blow from the South and provide accumulative 80% of the annual rainfall during the 6 months of the rainy season which normally lasts from May-October. During the dry season (November - April) the winds are blowing from northern Indo-China land mass and rain drops only a few days in a month. Because of this typical tropical climate system, surface water resources across most of the southeastern Asia-Pacific region and the Eastern Seaboard of Thailand, in particular, rely on the annual occurrence of the monsoon season. There is now sufficient evidence that the named extreme weather conditions of 2005 occurring in that part of Thailand are not a singularity, but might be another signal of recent ongoing climate change in that country as a whole. Because of this imminent threat to the water resources of the region, and for the set-up of appropriate water management schemes for the near future, a climate impact study is proposed here. More specifically, the water budget of the Khlong Yai basin, which is the main watershed of the Eastern Seaboard, is modeled using the distributed hydrological model SWAT. To that avail the watershed model is coupled sequentially to a global climate model (GCM), whereby the latter provides the input forcing parameters (e.g. precipitation and temperature) to the former. Because of

  8. 21st Century Learning Skills Embedded in Climate Literacy Teacher Professional Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, R. J.; Schwerin, T. G.; Blaney, L.

    2011-12-01

    Trilling and Fadel's "21st Century Learning Skills" defines a vision of how to infuse an expanded set of skills, competencies and flexibilities into the classroom. Among these skills are global awareness, health and environmental literacy. The authors contend that in order for our students to compete, they will need critical thinking and problem solving skills, communication and collaboration, and creativity and innovation. Students will also need to be digital savvy. This poster outlines a program of preparing teachers to implement inquiry-based modules that allow students to exercise hypothetical deductive reasoning to address climate literacy issues such as: the Dust Bowl, thermohaline circulation, droughts, the North Atlantic Oscillation, climate variability and energy challenges. This program is implemented through the Earth System Science Education Alliance. ESSEA supports the educational goal of "attracting and retaining students in science careers" and the associated goal of "attracting and retaining students in science through a progression of educational opportunities for students, teachers and faculty." ESSEA provides long-duration educator professional development that results in deeper content understanding and confidence in teaching global climate change and science disciplines. The target audience for this effort is pre-service and in-service K-12 teachers. The ESSEA program develops shared educational resources - including modules and courses - that are based on NASA and NOAA climate science and data. The program is disseminated through the ESSEA Web site: http://essea.courses.strategies.org. ESSEA increases teachers' access to high-quality materials, standards-based instructional methods and content knowledge. Started in 2000 and based on online courses for K-12 teachers, ESSEA includes the participation of faculty at 45 universities and science centers. Over 3,500 pre- and in-service K-12 teachers have completed ESSEA courses. In addition to 21st

  9. Human and climate impacts on the 21st century hydrological drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanders, N.; Wada, Y.

    2015-07-01

    Climate change will very likely impact future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of human water use including reservoir regulation and climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale. The global hydrological and water resources model PCR-GLOBWB is used to simulate daily discharge globally at 0.5 ° resolution for 1971-2099. The model was forced with the latest CMIP5 climate projections taken from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and four emission scenarios (RCPs), under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. A natural or pristine scenario has been used to calculate the impact of the changing climate on hydrological drought and has been compared to a scenario with human influences. In the latter scenario reservoir operations and human water use are included in the simulations of discharge for the 21st century. The impact of humans on the low flow regime and hydrological drought characteristics has been studied at a catchment scale. Results show a significant impact of climate change and human water use in large parts of Asia, Middle East and the Mediterranean, where the relative contribution of humans on the changed drought severity can be close to 100%. The differences between Representative Concentration Pathways are small indicating that human water use is proportional to the changes in the climate. Reservoirs tend to reduce the impact of drought by water retention in the wet season, which in turn will lead to increased water availability in the dry season, especially for large regions in Europe and North America. The impact of climate change varies throughout the season for parts of Europe and North-America, while in other regions (e.g. North-Africa, Middle East and Mediterranean), the impact is not influenced by seasonal changes. This study illustrates that the impact of human water use and reservoirs is nontrivial

  10. Modeled changes in extreme wave climates of the tropical Pacific over the 21st century: Implications for U.S. and U.S.-Affiliated atoll islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shope, J.B.; Storlazzi, Curt; Erikson, Li H.; Hegermiller, C.A.

    2015-01-01

    Wave heights, periods, and directions were forecast for 2081–2100 using output from four coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate models for representative concentration pathway scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Global climate model wind fields were used to drive the global WAVEWATCH-III wave model to generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters for 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific. December–February 95th percentile extreme significant wave heights under both climate scenarios decreased by 2100 compared to 1976–2010 historical values. Trends under both scenarios were similar, with the higher-emission RCP8.5 scenario displaying a greater decrease in extreme significant wave heights than where emissions are reduced in the RCP4.5 scenario. Central equatorial Pacific Islands displayed the greatest departure from historical values; significant wave heights decreased there by as much as 0.32 m during December–February and associated wave directions rotated approximately 30° clockwise during June–August compared to hindcast data.

  11. The IMAGE 2.2 implementation of the SRES scenarios: a comprehensive analysis of emissions, climate change and impacts in the 21st century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    IMAGE team,

    2001-01-01

    The Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) is a dynamic integrated assessment modelling framework for global change. The main objectives of IMAGE are to contribute to scientific understanding and support decision-making by quantifying the relative importance of major processes and

  12. Effects of global change during the 21st century onthe nitrogen cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, D.; Steadman, C. E.; Stevenson, D.; Coyle, M.; Rees, R. M.; Skiba, U. M.; Sutton, M. A.; Cape, J. N.; Dore, A. J.; Vieno, M.; Simpson, D.; Zaehle, S.; Stocker, B. D.; Rinaldi, M.; Facchini, M. C.; Flechard, C. R.; Nemitz, E.; Twigg, M.; Erisman, J. W.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.; Galloway, J. N.

    2015-12-01

    The global nitrogen (N) cycle at the beginning of the 21st century has been shown to be strongly influenced by the inputs of reactive nitrogen (Nr) from human activities, including combustion-related NOx, industrial and agricultural N fixation, estimated to be 220 Tg N yr-1 in 2010, which is approximately equal to the sum of biological N fixation in unmanaged terrestrial and marine ecosystems. According to current projections, changes in climate and land use during the 21st century will increase both biological and anthropogenic fixation, bringing the total to approximately 600 Tg N yr-1 by around 2100. The fraction contributed directly by human activities is unlikely to increase substantially if increases in nitrogen use efficiency in agriculture are achieved and control measures on combustion-related emissions implemented. Some N-cycling processes emerge as particularly sensitive to climate change. One of the largest responses to climate in the processing of Nr is the emission to the atmosphere of NH3, which is estimated to increase from 65 Tg N yr-1 in 2008 to 93 Tg N yr-1 in 2100 assuming a change in global surface temperature of 5 °C in the absence of increased anthropogenic activity. With changes in emissions in response to increased demand for animal products the combined effect would be to increase NH3 emissions to 135 Tg N yr-1. Another major change is the effect of climate changes on aerosol composition and specifically the increased sublimation of NH4NO3 close to the ground to form HNO3 and NH3 in a warmer climate, which deposit more rapidly to terrestrial surfaces than aerosols. Inorganic aerosols over the polluted regions especially in Europe and North America were dominated by (NH4)2SO4 in the 1970s to 1980s, and large reductions in emissions of SO2 have removed most of the SO42- from the atmosphere in these regions. Inorganic aerosols from anthropogenic emissions are now dominated by NH4NO3, a volatile aerosol which contributes substantially to PM10

  13. Global projections of 21st century land-use changes in regions adjacent to Protected Areas.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda J Beaumont

    Full Text Available The conservation efficiency of Protected Areas (PA is influenced by the health and characteristics of the surrounding landscape matrix. Fragmentation of adjacent lands interrupts ecological flows within PAs and will decrease the ability of species to shift their distribution as climate changes. For five periods across the 21(st century, we assessed changes to the extent of primary land, secondary land, pasture and crop land projected to occur within 50 km buffers surrounding IUCN-designated PAs. Four scenarios of land-use were obtained from the Land-Use Harmonization Project, developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5. The scenarios project the continued decline of primary lands within buffers surrounding PAs. Substantial losses are projected to occur across buffer regions in the tropical forest biomes of Indo-Malayan and the Temperate Broadleaf forests of the Nearctic. A number of buffer regions are projected to have negligible primary land remaining by 2100, including those in the Afrotropic's Tropical/Subtropical Grassland/Savanna/Shrubland. From 2010-2050, secondary land is projected to increase within most buffer regions, although, as with pasture and crops within tropical and temperate forests, projections from the four land-use scenarios may diverge substantially in magnitude and direction of change. These scenarios demonstrate a range of alternate futures, and show that although effective mitigation strategies may reduce pressure on land surrounding PAs, these areas will contain an increasingly heterogeneous matrix of primary and human-modified landscapes. Successful management of buffer regions will be imperative to ensure effectiveness of PAs and to facilitate climate-induced shifts in species ranges.

  14. Projected changes in high ozone pollution events over the Eastern United States over the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieder, Harald E.; Fiore, Arlene M.; Horrowitz, Larry W.; Naik, Vaishali

    2014-05-01

    Over the past few decades, thresholds for the United States (US) National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone (O3), established to protect public health and welfare, have been lowered repeatedly. We recently applied methods from extreme value theory (EVT) to maximum daily 8-hour average ozone (MDA8 O3) observed by the Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNet) to quantify the significant decline in both frequency and magnitude of high O3 pollution events over the Eastern US from 1988 to 2009. These improvements to Eastern US air quality have been reported in prior studies and result from changes in air quality regulations and subsequent control measures (e.g., the "NOx SIP Call") as demonstrated by our analysis of 1-year and 5-year return levels. Here we extend this analysis to future projections of high O3 pollution events spanning the course of the 21st century. To this aim, we analyze simulations from the GFDL CM3 chemistry-climate model under selected Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (representing a moderate and strong climate warming with a global mean temperature change by 2100 compared to present day of +2.3K and +4.5K, respectively). Under both scenarios, NOx emissions decrease by ~80% over North America by 2100 under the assumption of aggressive ozone pollution controls. A third scenario, termed RCP4.5_WMGG, in which well-mixed greenhouse gases follow the RCP4.5 scenario but O3 and aerosol precursor emissions are held at 2005 levels, enables us to isolate the role of climate change from that of emission reductions. As we find a positive bias in GFDL CM3 MDA8 O3 compared to the Eastern US CASTNet O3 measurements during summer (a common feature in the current generation of models), we develop a correction method based on quantile-mapping. This bias correction effectively removes the model bias while preserving the temporal changes in MDA8 O3 as simulated under different RCPs over the course of the 21st

  15. Projected changes in significant wave height toward the end of the 21st century: Northeast Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aarnes, Ole Johan; Reistad, Magnar; Breivik, Øyvind; Bitner-Gregersen, Elzbieta; Ingolf Eide, Lars; Gramstad, Odin; Magnusson, Anne Karin; Natvig, Bent; Vanem, Erik

    2017-04-01

    Wind field ensembles from six CMIP5 models force wave model time slices of the northeast Atlantic over the last three decades of the 20th and the 21st centuries. The future wave climate is investigated by considering the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The CMIP5 model selection is based on their ability to reconstruct the present (1971-2000) extratropical cyclone activity, but increased spatial resolution has also been emphasized. In total, the study comprises 35 wave model integrations, each about 30 years long, in total more than 1000 years. Here annual statistics of significant wave height are analyzed, including mean parameters and upper percentiles. There is general agreement among all models considered that the mean significant wave height is expected to decrease by the end of the 21st century. This signal is statistically significant also for higher percentiles, but less evident for annual maxima. The RCP8.5 scenario yields the strongest reduction in wave height. The exception to this is the north western part of the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea, where receding ice cover gives longer fetch and higher waves. The upper percentiles are reduced less than the mean wave height, suggesting that the future wave climate has higher variance than the historical period.

  16. Response of aeolian desertification to regional climate change in Horqin sandy land at beginning of 21st century%21世纪初科尔沁沙地沙漠化对区域气候变化的响应

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王永芳; 张继权; 马齐云; 朱萌

    2016-01-01

    Using time series MODIS-NDVI dataset in growing season from 2000 to 2013 and precipitation, temperature, evaporation and wind speed data, dynamic change of aeolian desertification and its response to regional climate change in Horqin sandy land at the beginning of 21st century were studied in this paper. A dimidiate pixel model was chosen to calculate the vegetation coverage index (VCI), and aeolian desertification index (ADI) was established on the basis of negative correlation between VCI and aeolian desertification degree. Then, a classification system of ADI was developed by the decision tree method. In addition, linear regression was used for the temporal trend analysis of ADI and the selected climate factors. Mann-Kendall statistical test was used to estimate the significance of the trends. To reveal the effects of climate change on aeolian desertification further, this study analyzed the correlation between climate factors and aeolian desertified lands at an administrative scale using Pearson’s correlation analysis method. The result showed that the aeolian desertification underwent a process of reversion-development-reversion in Horqin sandy land at the beginning of 21st century, among which the area of aeolian desertified lands decreased in periods from 2000 to 2005 and from 2009 to 2013 and increased from 2005 to 2009. The areas of slight and medium aeolian desertified lands changed in a significant downward trend. The areas of serious and extreme serious aeolian desertified lands changed in a non-significant downward trend. The non-aeolian desertified lands were mainly distributed in the northwest parts while the serious and extreme serious aeolian desertified lands were in the southwest parts of the study area. The slight and the medium aeolian desertified lands were wildly distributed in the northern, eastern and the southern parts of the study area. The precipitation was on the rise while the temperature, evaporation, and the windy days driving sand

  17. Infusing Creativity and Technology in 21st Century Education: A Systemic View for Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henriksen, Danah; Mishra, Punya; Fisser, Petra

    2016-01-01

    In this article, we explore creativity alongside educational technology, as fundamental constructs of 21st century education. Creativity has become increasingly important, as one of the most important and noted skills for success in the 21st century. We offer a definition of creativity; and draw upon a systems model of creativity, to suggest…

  18. Projections of 21st Century African Climate: Implications for African Savanna Fire Dynamics, Human Health and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adegoke, J. O.

    2015-12-01

    Fire is a key agent of change in the African savannas, which are shaped through the complex interactions between trees, C4 grasses, rainfall, temperature, CO2 and fire. These fires and their emitted smoke can have numerous direct and indirect effects on the environment, water resources, air quality, and climate. For instance, veld fires in southern Africa cause large financial losses to agriculture, livestock production and forestry on an annual basis. This study contributes to our understanding of the implications of projected surface temperature evolution in Africa for fire risk, human health and agriculture over the coming decades. We use an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations of African climate for the 21st century. Regional dowscalings and recent global circulation model projections obtained for Africa indicate that African temperatures are likely to rise at 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the tropics, and at almost twice the global rate of increase in the subtropics. Warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with increases of 4-6 °C over the subtropics and 3-5 °C over the tropics plausible by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (low mitigation) scenario. We explore the significance of the projected warming by documenting increases in projected high fire danger days and heat-wave days. General drying is projected across the continent, even for areas (e.g. tropical Africa) where an increase in rainfall is plausible. This is due to the drastic increases in temperature that are projected, which leads to drier soils (through enhanced evaporation) despite the rainfall increases. This will likely impact negatively on crop yield, particularly on the maize crop that is of crucial importance in terms of African food security.

  19. Projection of Climate Change with Various Emission Scenarios over Huaihe River Basin in the 21st Century%多模式集合预估21世纪淮河流域气候变化情景

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李秀萍; 徐宗学; 程华琼

    2012-01-01

    利用政府间气候变化委员会第四次评估报告(the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergov-ernmental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC AR4)的14个全球气候耦合模式对中国淮河流域气温和降水的模拟能力进行了评估,预估了该地区21世纪的降水和气温变化。同时,还分析了14个气候模式对1961-1999年气温和降水的模拟能力,并且根据Taylor方法选取具有较好模拟能力的模式做集合分析。结果表明,不同的气候模式对淮河流域的气温和降水都具有一定的模拟能力,但大多数模式模拟的气温偏低、降水偏多;选取的模式集合可以明显改善模式的模拟能力,但是没有表现出明显的优势。对淮河流域降水和气温未来情景的预估表明,各模式给出的情景结果尽管存在一定的差异,但模拟的21世纪气候变化的趋势基本一致,即气温持续增加,降水出现区域性增加;还重点分析了14个模式集合的结果在2010-2039年、2040-2069年和2070-2099年3个时段的年平均、季节平均降水和气温变化及其时空变化特征,结果表明,3个时段的气温和降水在不同情景下都是逐渐增加的,A2情景下增幅最显著,B1情景下增幅最小。%Using 14GCMs from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC AR4),the simulated air temperature and precipitation in the Huaihe River basin has been assessed,and their changes in the 21st century are projected.The simulation ability of 14GCMs in simulating present climate for one single GCM is analyzed by comparing with observations for 1961-1999,and the ensemble simulation ability composed by better models selected through the Taylor diagram is analyzed as well.The results suggest that all GCMs show the good simulation ability for air temperature and precipitation over the Huaihe River basin,but most of them underestimate air temperature and overestimate precipitation.Ensemble models could improve the

  20. Scenarios of 21st-century trans-Arctic shipping for climate studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, S. R.; Davis, S. J.; Zender, C. S.; Smith, L. C.

    2013-12-01

    Receding Arctic sea ice coupled with increased resource demand in east Asia have recast the Arctic as an international trade space facilitating export of petroleum and minerals and offering potential alternative pathways for global maritime trade. Several studies have examined the future impact of increased vessel traffic in the Arctic on emissions of greenhouse gases and black carbon (BC); however, the net impact of these emissions on climate forcing in the region is not well understood. Here we present several scenarios of 21st-century trans-Arctic shipping for climate studies. Vessel transits between 5 east Asian ports (Tianjin, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Tokyo/Yokohama, Busan) and 2 European ports (Rotterdam, Hamburg) are estimated from 2010-2050 according to projected sea ice concentration and thickness, trends in cargo export volumes, and vessel ice class and cargo capacity. Sea ice data are represented by a 7-model ensemble mean from CMIP5 under two forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5/8.5). Emissions presented (CO2, CH4, N2O, NOx, SOx, BC) are obtained by convolving projected transits with trends in emissions factors. Results illustrate a range of emissions inventories for the Arctic owing to differences in vessel accessibility, trade volume, routes, and fuel mixtures.

  1. Projected rainfall and temperature changes over Malaysia at the end of the 21st century based on PRECIS modelling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loh, Jui Le; Tangang, Fredolin; Juneng, Liew; Hein, David; Lee, Dong-In

    2016-05-01

    This study investigates projected changes in rainfall and temperature over Malaysia by the end of the 21st century based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2, A1B and B2 emission scenarios using the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS). The PRECIS regional climate model (HadRM3P) is configured in 0.22° × 0.22° horizontal grid resolution and is forced at the lateral boundaries by the UKMO-HadAM3P and UKMOHadCM3Q0 global models. The model performance in simulating the present-day climate was assessed by comparing the modelsimulated results to the Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) dataset. Generally, the HadAM3P/PRECIS and HadCM3Q0/PRECIS simulated the spatio-temporal variability structure of both temperature and rainfall reasonably well, albeit with the presence of cold biases. The cold biases appear to be associated with the systematic error in the HadRM3P. The future projection of temperature indicates widespread warming over the entire country by the end of the 21st century. The projected temperature increment ranges from 2.5 to 3.9°C, 2.7 to 4.2°C and 1.7 to 3.1°C for A2, A1B and B2 scenarios, respectively. However, the projection of rainfall at the end of the 21st century indicates substantial spatio-temporal variation with a tendency for drier condition in boreal winter and spring seasons while wetter condition in summer and fall seasons. During the months of December to May, ~20-40% decrease of rainfall is projected over Peninsular Malaysia and Borneo, particularly for the A2 and B2 emission scenarios. During the summer months, rainfall is projected to increase by ~20-40% across most regions in Malaysia, especially for A2 and A1B scenarios. The spatio-temporal variations in the projected rainfall can be related to the changes in the weakening monsoon circulations, which in turn alter the patterns of

  2. Snow cover and permafrost evolution in Siberia as simulated by the MGO regional climate model in the 20th and 21st centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shkolnik, I. M.; Nadyozhina, E. D.; Pavlova, T. V.; Molkentin, E. K.; Semioshina, A. A.

    2010-01-01

    An approach to ground thermodynamics description using a coupled system of atmospheric regional climate and ground heat transfer models is improved by accounting for the time varying snow density. The simulations are compared to available observational analyses, and the sensitivity of the ground thermal regime to variable snow density is analysed. Projected changes of the ground thermal regime in the 21st century relative to the late 20th century are shown and compared to earlier estimates.

  3. 21st century changes in snow water equivalent over Northern Hemisphere landmasses due to increasing temperature, projected with the CMIP5 models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. X. Shi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Changes in snow water equivalent (SWE over Northern Hemisphere (NH landmasses are investigated for the early (2016–2035, middle (2046–2065 and late (2080–2099 21st century using twenty global climate models, which are from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5. The results show that, relative to the 1986–2005 mean, the multi-model ensemble projects a significant decrease in SWE for most regions, particularly over the Tibetan Plateau and western North America, but an increase in eastern Siberia. Seasonal SWE projections show an overall decreasing trend, with the greatest reduction in spring, which is linked to the stronger inverse partial correlation between the SWE and increasing temperature. Moreover, zonal mean annual SWE exhibits significant reductions in three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP, a stronger linear relationship between SWE and temperature at mid–high latitudes suggests the reduction in SWE there is related to rising temperature. However, the rate of reduction in SWE declines gradually during the 21st century, indicating that the temperature may reach a threshold value that decreases the rate of SWE reduction. A large reduction in zonal maximum SWE (ZMSWE between 30° and 40° N is evident in all 21st century for the three RCPs, while RCP8.5 alone indicates a further reduction at high latitudes in the late period of the century. This pattern implies that ZMSWE is affected not only by a terrain factor but also by the increasing temperature. In summary, our results show both a decreasing trend in SWE in the 21st century and a decline in the rate of SWE reduction over the 21st century despite rising temperatures.

  4. Probabilistic Forecast for 21st Century Climate Based on an Ensemble of Simulations using a Business-As-Usual Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, J. R.; Forest, C. E.; Sokolov, A. P.; Dutkiewicz, S.

    2011-12-01

    The behavior of the climate system is examined in an ensemble of runs using an Earth System Model of intermediate complexity. Climate "parameters" varied are the climate sensitivity, the aerosol forcing, and the strength of ocean heat uptake. Variations in the latter were accomplished by changing the strength of the oceans' background vertical mixing. While climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing can be varied over rather wide ranges, it is more difficult to create such variation in heat uptake while maintaining a realistic overturning ocean circulation. Therefore, separate ensembles were carried out for a few values of the vertical diffusion coefficient. Joint probability distributions for climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing are constructed by comparing results from 20th century simulations with available observational data. These distributions are then used to generate ensembles of 21st century simulations; results allow us to construct probabilistic distributions for changes in important climate change variables such as surface air temperature, sea level rise, and magnitude of the AMOC. Changes in the rate of air-sea flux of CO2 and the export of carbon into the deep ocean are also examined.

  5. Statistical modeling of CMIP5 projected changes in extreme wet spells over China in the late 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Lianhua; Li, Yun; Jiang, Zhihong

    2017-08-01

    The observed intensity, frequency, and duration (IFD) of summer wet spells, defined here as extreme events with one or more consecutive days in which daily precipitation exceeds a given threshold (the 95th percentile), and their future changes in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the late 21st century over China, are investigated by using the wet spell model (WSM) and by extending the point process approach to extreme value analysis. Wet spell intensity is modeled by a conditional generalized Pareto distribution, frequency by a Poisson distribution, and duration by a geometric distribution, respectively. The WSM is able to realistically model summer extreme rainfall spells during 1961-2005, as verified with observations at 553 stations throughout China. To minimize the impact of systematic biases over China in the global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), five best GCMs are selected based on their performance to reproduce observed wet spell IFD and average precipitation during the historical period. Furthermore, a quantile-quantile scaling correction procedure is proposed and applied to produce ensemble projections of wet spell IFD and corresponding probability distributions. The results show that in the late 21st century, most of China will experience more extreme rainfall and less low-intensity rainfall. The intensity and frequency of wet spells are projected to increase considerably, while the duration of wet spells will increase but to a much less extent. The IFD changes in RCP8.5 are in general much larger than those in RCP4.5.

  6. Divergent trajectories of Antarctic ice shelf surface melt under 21st century climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trusel, L. D.; Frey, K. E.; Das, S. B.; Kuipers Munneke, P.; van Meijgaard, E.

    2014-12-01

    Antarctic ice shelves represent a critical interface between continental ice masses and the surrounding ocean. Breakup events of several ice shelves in recent decades have been linked to an increase in intense surface melting, and have in turn lead to cascading effects including accelerated glacier discharge into the ocean. In this study, we utilized sophisticated regional and global climate models (GCMs) to assess potential future surface melt trajectories across Antarctica under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). RACMO2.1, a polar-adapted regional atmospheric climate model, was forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis (1980-2010) and by two GCMs, EC-EARTH and HadGEM2-ES (2007-2100). Using RACMO2.1, we observed an exponential growth function well represents the relationship between ice shelf surface meltwater production and mean summer (DJF) 2-meter air temperature (t2m). We employed this melt-t2m relationship to project melt using t2m output from an ensemble of five CMIP5-based GCMs incorporating the NCAR Community Land Model 4 (CLM4), following spatial downscaling and bias correction using t2m from ERA-Interim-forced RACMO2.1. Our resulting GCM-derived melt projections provide an independent and methodologically unique perspective into potential future melt pathways, complementary to those derived from RACMO2.1. Most notably, both RACMO2.1 and the CMIP5 ensemble reveal divergent trajectories of meltwater production beyond 2050 under the two climate scenarios. For many ice shelves in RCP4.5, meltwater production through 2100 remains at levels comparable to present. Conversely, under RCP8.5 all methods indicate non-linear melt intensification, resulting in a four-fold increase in the Antarctic-wide meltwater volume by the end of the 21st century. For some ice shelves, including Larsen C and Wilkins (Antarctic Peninsula), and Shackleton and West (Wilkes Land), spatially averaged end-of-century meltwater production within RCP8.5 approaches or surpasses levels

  7. Media and communication in Asia in early 21st century: Changes, continuities, and challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Liu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Asia has some of the largest, most dynamic, diversified, and complicated media industries in the world (McKinsey & Company, 2015. Entering the 21st Century, the rapid economic and political developments of Asia further energize the growth of media locally and globally (for general discussion, see, e.g., Keane [2006]; Thussu [2006], specific discussions on the cases of Korea [Kim, 2013], Japan [Iwabuchi, 2004], China [Sun, 2009]. In a reflection on the increasing importance of Asian players in global communication industry, Keane describes that “Asianness is colonizing international communications markets” (2006: 839-840 with the impacts ranging from the production of hardware (i.e., East Asian technology to content (e.g., Japanese manga, anime and TV formats and South Korean popular culture and from the cross-over of directors and actors from Asia to Hollywood and the world. Yet, a lack of timely understanding of media and communication in a fast-changing Asia is hindering not only our interpretation of the significance of media in social transformation in Asia, but also the efforts to de-westernize (e.g., Park & Curran, 2000; Wang, 2010 or internationalize communication studies (Lee, 2014.

  8. Changes in atmospheric blocking characteristics within Euro-Atlantic region and Northern Hemisphere as a whole in the 21st century from model simulations using RCP anthropogenic scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokhov, Igor I.; Timazhev, Alexander V.; Lupo, Anthony R.

    2014-11-01

    An analysis of simulations using the IPSL-CM5 climate model of general circulation shows the ability of this model to reproduce the current climate of the main blocking characteristics obtained from reanalysis data, including number of blocking events and their duration, intensity and frequency. Possible changes of blocking characteristics in the Euro-Atlantic region (EA) and for the Northern Hemisphere (NH) as a whole are estimated from model simulations with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the 21st century. Results of the model simulations show a general increase in the blocking frequency for the EA in winter, summer and for the entire year during the 21st century for both analyzed RCP scenarios, while changes of the opposite sign are characteristic for NH as a whole. It is also noted that there is a tendency for an increase in the blocking intensity in the EA during the winter from model simulations with both analyzed RCP scenarios for the 21st century. A significant increase is obtained in the EA for the likelihood of extreme winter with the total blocking duration longer than seven weeks. Also, a similar tendency is characteristic for the EA summer.

  9. The past as prelude to the future for understanding 21st-century climate effects on Rocky Mountain Trout

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaak, Daniel J.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Todd, Andrew S.; Al-chokhachy, Robert; Roberts, James; Kershner, Jeffrey L.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Hostetler, Steven W.

    2012-01-01

    Bioclimatic models predict large reductions in native trout across the Rocky Mountains in the 21st century but lack details about how changes will occur. Through five case histories across the region, we explore how a changing climate has been affecting streams and the potential consequences for trout. Monitoring records show trends in temperature and hydrographs consistent with a warming climate in recent decades. Biological implications include upstream shifts in thermal habitats, risk of egg scour, increased wildfire disturbances, and declining summer habitat volumes. The importance of these factors depends on the context, but temperature increases are most relevant where population boundaries are mediated by thermal constraints. Summer flow declines and wildfires will be important where trout populations are fragmented and constrained to small refugia. A critical information gap is evidence documenting how populations are adjusting to long-term habitat trends, so biological monitoring is a priority. Biological, temperature, and discharge data from monitoring networks could be used to develop accurate vulnerability assessments that provide information regarding where conservation actions would best improve population resilience. Even with better information, future uncertainties will remain large due to unknowns regarding Earth's ultimate warming trajectory and how effects translate across scales. Maintaining or increasing the size of habitats could provide a buffer against these uncertainties.

  10. Experience of the forecast of water and power resources changes at warming of the 21st century

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Alexander; Kislov; Eugenie; Evstigneev; Galina; Surkova

    2009-01-01

    Global warming causes changes of those natural resources like power resources, water resources, agroclimatic and ecological resources etc. And these changes depend on climate. Dynamics of resources depends both on planned economic activities and on changes of a climate. In this work the climatic component of changes is discussed. Projecting results used in this paper are based on the data of the CMIP3 (coupled model intercomparison project) in the framework of Working Group on Coupled Modelling. This project includes the world’s best climate models. Results of modelling and the data of meteorological observations expressed by probability distribution functions (or empirical orthogonal functions) were compared. It was shown that the modelling data were much more reliable over flat territories. In result 11 most successful models were selected. They can be used for the forecast within the framework of known IPCC scenario А2 at the 21st century. Estimations of changes of volumes of a river runoff and conditions of humidity of territory have been allowed to determine that the serious reduction of resources is expected in the southern part of the East European plain. Its central and northern parts practically will not demonstrate changes.

  11. Experience of the forecast of water and power resources changes at warming of the 21st century

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Alexander Kislov; Eugenie Evstigneev; Galina Surkova

    2009-01-01

    Global warming causes changes of those natural resources like power resources, water resources, agroclimatic and ecological resources etc.And these changes depend on climate.Dynamics of re-sources depends both on planned economic activities and on changes of a climate.In this work the climatic component of changes is discussed.Projecting results used in this paper are based on the data of the CMIP3 (coupled model intercomparison project) in the framework of Working Group on Coupled Modelling, This project includes the world's best climate models, Results of modelling and the data of meteorological observations expressed by probability distribution functions (or empirical or-thogonal functions) were compared, It was shown that the modelling data were much more reliable over flat territories.In result 11 most successful models were selected, They can be used for the forecast within the framework of known IPCC scenario A2 at the 21st century, Estimations of changes of vol-umes of a river runoff and conditions of humidity of territory have been allowed to determine that the serious reduction of resources is expected in the southern part of the East European plain.Its central and northern parts practically will not demonstrate changes.

  12. A new approach to projecting 21st century sea-level changes and extremes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goodwin, P.; Haigh, I.D.; Rohling, E.J.; Slangen, A.

    2017-01-01

    Future increases in flooding potential around the world's coastlines from extreme sea level events is heavily dependent on projections of future global mean sea level (GMSL) rise. Yet, the two main approaches for projecting 21st century GMSL rise—i.e., process-based versus semi-empirical—give

  13. 21st Century Trends in Antarctic Temperature and Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC) Area in the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

    2010-01-01

    This study examines trends in Antarctic temperature and APSC, a temperature proxy for the area of polar stratospheric clouds, in an ensemble of Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. A selection of greenhouse gas, ozone-depleting substance, and sea surface temperature scenarios is used to test the trend sensitivity to these parameters. One scenario is used to compare temperature trends in two versions of the GEOS CCM. An extended austral winter season is examined in detail. In May, June, and July, the expected future increase in CO2-related radiative cooling drives temperature trends in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. At 50 hPa, a 1.3 K cooling is expected between 2000 and 2100. Ozone levels increase, despite this robust cooling signal and the consequent increase in APSC, suggesting the enhancement of stratospheric transport in future. In the lower stratosphere, the choice of climate change scenarios does not affect the magnitude of the early winter cooling. Midwinter temperature trends are generally small. In October, APSC trends have the same sign as the prescribed halogen trends. That is, there are negative APSC trends in "grealistic future" simulations, where halogen loading decreases in accordance with the Montreal Protocol and CO2 continues to increase. In these simulations, the speed of ozone recovery is not influenced by either the choice of sea surface temperature and greenhouse gas scenarios or by the model version.

  14. Mid-21st century projections in temperature extremes in the southern Colorado Rocky Mountains from regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rangwala, Imtiaz [NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO (United States); Rutgers University, Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ (United States); Barsugli, Joseph [NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO (United States); Cozzetto, Karen; Neff, Jason [University of Colorado, Geological Sciences Department and Environmental Studies Program, Boulder, CO (United States); Prairie, James [University of Colorado, Bureau of Reclamation, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2012-10-15

    This study analyzes mid-21st century projections of daily surface air minimum (T{sub min}) and maximum (T{sub max}) temperatures, by season and elevation, over the southern range of the Colorado Rocky Mountains. The projections are from four regional climate models (RCMs) that are part of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). All four RCMs project 2 C or higher increases in T{sub min} and T{sub max} for all seasons. However, there are much greater (>3 C) increases in T{sub max} during summer at higher elevations and in T{sub min} during winter at lower elevations. T{sub max} increases during summer are associated with drying conditions. The models simulate large reductions in latent heat fluxes and increases in sensible heat fluxes that are, in part, caused by decreases in precipitation and soil moisture. T{sub min} increases during winter are found to be associated with decreases in surface snow cover, and increases in soil moisture and atmospheric water vapor. The increased moistening of the soil and atmosphere facilitates a greater diurnal retention of the daytime solar energy in the land surface and amplifies the longwave heating of the land surface at night. We hypothesize that the presence of significant surface moisture fluxes can modify the effects of snow-albedo feedback and results in greater wintertime warming at night than during the day. (orig.)

  15. Trends in Summer Season Climate for Eastern Europe and Southern Russia in the Early 21st Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria G. Lebedeva

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this research is to evaluate changes in temperature and precipitation in the Central Chernozem Region of southwestern Russia during the summer and relate these to large-scale circulation types and synoptic circulation processes. Some of these circulation regimes result in extreme weather conditions over the region. Using a classification system for Northern Hemisphere large-scale flow regimes and observations of weather within the Central Chernozem Region, the role of individual synoptic patterns in the formation of weather anomalies was identified. Also, comparing the periods 1981–2010 and 1971–2000, the mean summer temperatures increased by 0.6°C regionally. During the most recent decade the increase was 1.3°C. Total precipitation for the summer increased over the 20th century and was characterized by less variability during the second half when compared to the first half. However, in the beginning of the 21st century, precipitation has decreased during the growing season, but variability has increased. The increase in summer temperatures and increased variability in precipitation were then linked to an increase in the occurrence of weather regimes associated with warm anomalies and blocking. Finally, the results of this study can be used to translate larger-scale seasonal or climate forecasts to the regional scale.

  16. Projections of UV radiation changes in the 21st century: impact of ozone recovery and cloud effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. F. Bais

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Monthly averaged surface erythemal solar irradiance (UV-Ery for local noon from 1960 to 2100 has been derived using radiative transfer calculations and projections of ozone, temperature and cloud change from 14 chemistry climate models (CCM, as part of the CCMVal-2 activity of SPARC. Our calculations show the influence of ozone depletion and recovery on erythemal irradiance. In addition, we investigate UV-Ery changes caused by climate change due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The latter include effects of both stratospheric ozone and cloud changes. The derived estimates provide a global picture of the likely changes in erythemal irradiance during the 21st century. Uncertainties arise from the assumed scenarios, different parameterizations – particularly of cloud effects on UV-Ery – and the spread in the CCM projections. The calculations suggest that relative to 1980, annually mean UV-Ery in the 2090s will be on average ~12 % lower at high latitudes in both hemispheres, ~3 % lower at mid latitudes, and marginally higher (~1 % in the tropics. The largest reduction (~16 % is projected for Antarctica in October. Cloud effects are responsible for 2–3 % of the reduction in UV-Ery at high latitudes, but they slightly moderate it at mid-latitudes (~1 %. The year of return of erythemal irradiance to values of certain milestones (1965 and 1980 depends largely on the return of column ozone to the corresponding levels and is associated with large uncertainties mainly due to the spread of the model projections. The inclusion of cloud effects in the calculations has only a small effect of the return years. At mid and high latitudes, changes in clouds and stratospheric ozone transport by global circulation changes due to greenhouse gases will sustain the erythemal irradiance at levels below those in 1965, despite the removal of ozone depleting substances. At northern high latitudes (60°–90°, the projected decreases in cloud

  17. The impacts of climate, land use, and demography on fires during the 21st century simulated by CLM-CN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Kloster

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Landscape fires during the 21st century are expected to change in response to multiple agents of global change. Important controlling factors include climate controls on the length and intensity of the fire season, fuel availability, and fire management, which are already anthropogenically perturbed today and are predicted to change further in the future. An improved understanding of future fires will contribute to an improved ability to project future anthropogenic climate change, as changes in fire behavior will in turn impact climate.

    In the present study we used a coupled-carbon-fire model to investigate how changes in climate, demography, and land use may alter fire emissions. We used climate projections following the SRES A1B scenario from two different climate models (ECHAM5/MPI-OM and CCSM and changes in population. Land use and harvest rates were prescribed according to the RCP 45 scenario. In response to the combined effect of all these drivers, our model estimated, depending on our choice of climate projection, an increase in future (2075–2099 fire carbon emissions by 17 and 62% compared to present day (1985–2009. The largest increase in fire emissions was predicted for Southern Hemisphere South America for both climate projection. For Northern Hemisphere Africa, a region that contributed significantly to the global total fire carbon emissions, the response varied between a decrease and an increase depending on the climate projection.

    We disentangled the contribution of the single forcing factors to the overall response by conducting an additional set of simulations in which each factor was individually held constant at pre-industrial levels. The two different projections of future climate change evaluated in this study led to increases in global fire carbon emissions by 22% (CCSM and 66% (ECHAM5/MPI-OM. The RCP 45 projection of harvest and land use led to a decrease in fire carbon emissions by −5%. Changes in

  18. The Impact of Technological Change on Military Manpower in the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-06-01

    11ners. flat data bases volume. equity operatuial planning "TIhe Federaiin" h,--h r-,hn I her’stchial, Man s.imiar A,, uilgarchv Duplicated opera!ing... foot soldier who will continue to be the key to future combat operations. In addition Wickham emph sed the importance of command, control...G.J., "Moving C3 Into the 21st Century," Signal, pp. 91-94, August 1989. Mannle, T.E., and Risser , D.T., Estimating the Manpower, Personnel, and

  19. Changing black carbon transport to the Arctic from present day to the end of 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, Chaoyi; Flanner, Mark G.

    2016-05-01

    Here we explore how climate warming under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) impacts Arctic aerosol distributions via changes in atmospheric transport and removal processes. We modify the bulk aerosol module in the Community Atmosphere Model to track distributions and fluxes of 200 black carbon-like tracers emitted from different locations, and we conduct idealized experiments with and without active aerosol deposition. Changing wind patterns, studied in isolation, cause the Arctic burdens of tracers emitted from East Asia and West Europe during winter to increase about 20% by the end of the century while decreasing the Arctic burdens of North American emissions by about 30%. These changes are caused by an altered winter polar dome structure that results from Arctic amplification and inhomogeneous sea ice loss and surface warming, both of which are enhanced in the Chukchi Sea region. The resulting geostrophic wind favors Arctic transport of East Asian emissions while inhibiting poleward transport of North American emissions. When active deposition is also considered, however, Arctic burdens of emissions from northern midlatitudes show near-universal decline. This is a consequence of increased precipitation and wet removal, particularly within the Arctic, leading to decreased Arctic residence time. Simulations with present-day emissions of black carbon indicate a 13.6% reduction in the Arctic annual mean burden by the end of the 21st century, due to warming-induced transport and deposition changes, while simulations with changing climate and emissions under RCP8.5 show a 61.0% reduction.

  20. Nitrogen, land and water inputs in changing cattle farming systems. A historical comparison for France, 19th-21st centuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatzimpiros, Petros; Barles, Sabine

    2010-09-15

    This paper provides an original account of the long-term regional metabolism in relation to the cattle rearing in western France starting by the precise formulation of animal diets at three key dates of the 19th, 20th and 21st centuries. We established links between the demand in fodder of the meat and dairy sectors and the necessary inputs of nitrogen, water and land as well as the land cover changes occurring on the affected local and remote cattle acreage. The average agricultural productivity for fodder supply is estimated at about 50 kg N/ha in the mid-19th, 54 kg N/ha in the early 20th and 150 kg N/ha at the turning of the 21st century. Jointly for the dairy and meat productions, the potential efficiency in the conversion of the vegetal into animal protein more than doubled over the studied period, passing from less than 9% in the 19th to 20% in the 21st century. The current cattle sector is sustained for about 25% by land situated beyond the regional frontiers and uses water at intensities that approach or exceed the availability of renewable water. The nitrogen pollution is expressed in terms of the Net Anthropogenic Nitrogen Inputs (NANI) and, by comparison to the N recovered in products, is used to define the N-Environmental Efficiency of the farming. We discuss the historical succession of the factors that contributed to the growth of the meat and milk production and make a comparison of the impacts and policy between the local and distant resources.

  1. Local-scale climate scenarios for impact studies and risk assessments: integration of early 21st century ENSEMBLES projections into the ELPIS database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calanca, Pierluigi; Semenov, Mikhail A.

    2013-08-01

    We present the integration of early 21st century climate projections for Europe based on simulations carried out within the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project with the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. The aim was to upgrade ELPIS, a repository of local-scale climate scenarios for use in impact studies and risk assessments that already included global projections from the CMIP3 ensemble and regional scenarios for Japan. To obtain a more reliable simulation of daily rainfall and extremes, changes in wet and dry series derived from daily ENSEMBLES outputs were taken into account. Kernel average smoothers were used to reduce noise arising from sampling artefacts. Examples of risk analyses based on 25-km climate projections from the ENSEMBLES ensemble of regional climate models illustrate the possibilities offered by the updated version of ELPIS. The results stress the importance of tailored information for local-scale impact assessments at the European level.

  2. Drivers of the tropospheric ozone budget throughout the 21st century under the medium-high climate scenario RCP 6.0

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. E. Revell

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Because tropospheric ozone is both a~greenhouse gas and harmful air pollutant, it is important to understand how anthropogenic activities may influence its abundance and distribution through the 21st century. Here, we present model simulations performed with the chemistry-climate model SOCOL, in which spatially disaggregated chemistry and transport tracers have been implemented in order to better understand the distribution and projected changes in tropospheric ozone. We examine the influences of ozone precursor emissions (nitrogen oxides (NOx, carbon monoxide (CO and volatile organic compounds (VOCs, climate change and stratospheric ozone recovery on the tropospheric ozone budget, in a~simulation following the climate scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 6.0. Changes in ozone precursor emissions have the largest effect, leading to a global-mean increase in tropospheric ozone which maximises in the early 21st century at 23%. The increase is most pronounced at northern midlatitudes, due to regional emission patterns: between 1990 and 2060, northern midlatitude tropospheric ozone remains at constantly large abundances: 31% larger than in 1960. Over this 70 year period, attempts to reduce emissions in Europe and North America do not have an effect on zonally-averaged northern midlatitude ozone because of increasing emissions from Asia, together with the longevity of ozone in the troposphere. A~simulation with fixed anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions of NOx, CO and non-methane VOCs at 1960 conditions shows a 6 % increase in global-mean tropospheric ozone, and an 11% increase at northern midlatitudes. This increase maximises in the 2080s, and is mostly caused by methane, which maximises in the 2080s following RCP 6.0, and plays an important role in controlling ozone directly, and indirectly through its influence on other VOCs and CO. Enhanced flux of ozone from the stratosphere to the troposphere as well as climate change

  3. Impacts of changes in land use and land cover on atmospheric chemistry and air quality over the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Wu

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The effects of future land use and land cover change on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and air quality are largely unknown. To investigate the potential effects associated with future changes in vegetation driven by atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate, and anthropogenic land use over the 21st century, we performed a series of model experiments combining a general circulation model with a dynamic global vegetation model and an atmospheric chemical-transport model. Our results indicate that climate- and CO2-induced changes in vegetation composition and density could lead to decreases in summer afternoon surface ozone of up to 10 ppb over large areas of the northern mid-latitudes. This is largely driven by the substantial increases in ozone dry deposition associated with changes in the composition of temperate and boreal forests where conifer forests are replaced by those dominated by broadleaf tree types, as well as a CO2-driven increase in vegetation density. Climate-driven vegetation changes over the period 2000–2100 lead to general increases in isoprene emissions, globally by 15 % in 2050 and 36 % in 2100. These increases in isoprene emissions result in decreases in surface ozone concentrations where the NOx levels are low, such as in remote tropical rainforests. However, over polluted regions, such as the northeastern United States, ozone concentrations are calculated to increase with higher isoprene emissions in the future. Increases in biogenic emissions also lead to higher concentrations of secondary organic aerosols, which increase globally by 10 % in 2050 and 20 % in 2100. Surface concentrations of secondary organic aerosols are calculated to increase by up to 1 μg m−3 for large areas in Eurasia. When we use a scenario of future anthropogenic land use change, we find less increase in global isoprene emissions due to replacement of higher-emitting forests by lower

  4. Mediterranean water cycle changes: transition to drier 21st century conditions in observations and CMIP3 simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mariotti, Annarita; Zeng Ning [Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park (United States); Yoon, Jin-Ho [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park (United States); Artale, Vincenzo [ENEA/Ente Nazionale per le Nuove Tecnologie, l' Energia e l' Ambiente, Rome (Italy); Navarra, Antonio [CMCC/Centro-Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici and Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Alpert, Pinhas [Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv (Israel); Li, Laurent Z X [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, CNRS, Paris (France)], E-mail: amariott@essic.umd.edu

    2008-10-15

    We use CMIP3 multi-model simulations to show how individual hydroclimatic changes will concur to determine even greater alterations of 21st century Mediterranean water cycle characteristics, with contrasting behavior over land and sea. By 2070-2099, the average of the models predicts a 20% decrease in land surface water availability and a 24% increase in the loss of fresh water over the Mediterranean Sea due to precipitation reduction and warming-enhanced evaporation, with a remarkably high consensus among analyzed models. The projected decrease in river runoff from the surrounding land will further exacerbate the increase in Mediterranean Sea fresh water deficit. 20th century simulations indicate that the 'transition' toward drier conditions has already started to occur and has accelerated around the turn of the century towards the larger rates projected for the 21st century. These tendencies are supported by observational evidence of century-long negative trends in regionally averaged precipitation, PDSI and discharge from numerous rivers; and are consistent with reported increases in Mediterranean sea water salinity.

  5. 21st century drought outlook for major climate divisions of Texas based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Implications for water resource management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venkataraman, Kartik; Tummuri, Spandana; Medina, Aldo; Perry, Jordan

    2016-03-01

    Management of water resources in Texas (United States) is a challenging endeavor due to rapid population growth in the recent past coupled with significant spatiotemporal variations in climate. While climate conditions impact the availability of water, over-usage and lack of efficient management further complicate the dynamics of supply availability. In this paper, we provide the first look at the impact of climate change projections from an ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) on 21st century drought characteristics under three future emission trajectories: Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). In addition, we evaluate the performance of the ensemble in simulating historical (1950-1999) observations from multiple climate divisions in Texas. Overall, the ensemble performs better in simulating historical temperature than precipitation. In semi-arid locations such as El Paso and Laredo, decreasing precipitation trends are projected even under the influence of climate policies represented by the RCP 4.5. There is little variability in the SPI across climate divisions and across RCPs. The SPEI, on the other hand, generally shows a decreasing trend toward the latter half of the 21st century, with multi-year droughts becoming the norm under the RCP 8.5, particularly in regions that are already dry, such as El Paso. Less severe droughts are projected for the sub-humid eastern edge of the state. Considering that state water planning agencies are already forecasting increased water shortages over the next 50 years, we recommend proactive approaches to risk management such as adjusting the planning tools for potential recurrence of multi-year droughts in regions that are already water-stressed.

  6. Fossil fuels in the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lincoln, Stephen F

    2005-12-01

    An overview of the importance of fossil fuels in supplying the energy requirements of the 21st century, their future supply, and the impact of their use on global climate is presented. Current and potential alternative energy sources are considered. It is concluded that even with substantial increases in energy derived from other sources, fossil fuels will remain a major energy source for much of the 21st century and the sequestration of CO2 will be an increasingly important requirement.

  7. Agroclimatic potential in central Siberia in an altered 21st century climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soja, A.; Tchebakova, N.; Parfenova, E.; Lysanova, G.

    2012-04-01

    The largest temperature increases are currently found in Northern Hemishpere upper latitudes, and this is where temperature increases from climate change are predicted to be the greatest in the future. Alteration of boreal and Arctic landscapes is already apparent, particularly in Siberia. In this work, we will explore the current spatial and temporal patterns of agriculture potential in Siberia and then investigate potential future agriculture dynamics. Humans have traditionally cultivated steppe and forest-steppe on fertile soils for agriculture. It is predicted that forests will move northwards in a warmer climate and be replaced by forest-steppe and steppe ecosystems. Climate change impacts on agriculture in south-central Siberia are analyzed based on the hypothesis that agriculture in traditionally cold Siberia may benefit from warming. Simple models are used to determine crop range and regression models are constructed to determine crop yield, and these are applied to climate change scenarios for various time frames: pre-1960, 1960-1990, 1990-2010 using historic data and for 2020 and 2080 using HadCM3 B1 and A2 projections. From 50 to 85% of central Siberia is predicted to be climatically suitable for agriculture by the end of the century, and only soil potential would limit crop advance and expansion to the north. Crop production could increase twofold. Future climatic resources in Siberia would provide potential growth for a variety of crops that previously did not exist on these lands. Traditional Siberian crops could gradually shift as far as 500 km northwards (about 50-70 km per decade) within suitable soil conditions, and new crops, nonexistent today, may be introduced in the dry south that would necessitate irrigation. Agriculture in central Siberia would likely benefit from climate warming but would also result in different feedbacks to the atmosphere and climate systems, in terms of an altered landscape albedo, substantially modified hydrological

  8. Uncertainty in climate projections for the 21st century northwest European shelf seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinker, Jonathan; Lowe, Jason; Pardaens, Anne; Holt, Jason; Barciela, Rosa

    2016-11-01

    There are a number of sources of uncertainty that impact climate projections for regional seas. We have assessed the impact that uncertain large-scale climate forcings have on the projections for the north-west European shelf seas. An ensemble of global Atmosphere-Ocean climate model (GCM) projections made by perturbed (atmospheric) parameter model variants which were designed to span uncertainty in climate sensitivity, was dynamically downscaled with the shelf seas model POLCOMS. The simulations were run as transient experiments (from 1952 to 2098) under a medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B). This study has focused on centennial changes over the period 2069-2098 relative to 1960-1989, but also refers to the full transient simulation to assess the significance of projected changes given interannual and low-frequency variability. The ensemble mean of the POLCOMS projections showed a shelf and annual mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) rise of 2.90 °C (±2σ = 0.82 °C), and a Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) freshening of -0.41 psu (±2σ = 0.47 psu) between these periods. We described the spread in a field for a particular period using the variances associated with both the time mean ensemble dispersion (ensemble variance) and with the interannual variability. For SST in the present-day period, the magnitudes of both ensemble and interannual variance were fairly spatially homogenous. While the future interannual variance is of similar magnitude to that of the present day, the ensemble variance increased considerably into the future period. For SSS, both sources of variance were more spatially heterogeneous, and both increased into the future period. We investigated relationships between the projected shelf seas changes across the ensemble and changes in the large-scale climate forcing. We found that the near surface-air temperature from the driving GCM (averaged over the domain) and the GCM surface salinity to the west of the POLCOMS domain are good proxies for the

  9. Narrowing of the Upwelling Branch of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation and Hadley Cell in Chemistry-Climate Model Simulations of the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Feng; Stolarski, Richard S.; Pawson, Steven; Newman, Paul A.; Waugh, Darryn

    2010-01-01

    Changes in the width of the upwelling branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation and Hadley cell in the 21st Century are investigated using simulations from a coupled chemistry-climate model. In these model simulations the tropical upwelling region narrows in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. The narrowing of the Brewer-Dobson circulation is caused by an equatorward shift of Rossby wave critical latitudes and Eliassen-Palm flux convergence in the subtropical lower stratosphere. In the troposphere, the model projects an expansion of the Hadley cell's poleward boundary, but a narrowing of the Hadley cell's rising branch. Model results suggest that eddy forcing may also play a part in the narrowing of the rising branch of the Hadley cell.

  10. Regional Design Approach in Designing Climatic Responsive Administrative Building in the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haja Bava Mohidin, Hazrina Binti; Ismail, Alice Sabrina

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to explicate on the study of modern administrative building in Malaysia which portrays regional design approach that conforms to the local context and climate by reviewing two case studies; Perdana Putra (1999) and former Prime Minister's Office (1967). This paper is significant because the country's stature and political statement was symbolized by administrative building as a national icon. In other words, it is also viewed as a cultural object that is closely tied to a particular social context and nation historical moment. Administrative building, therefore, may exhibit various meanings. This paper uses structuralism paradigm and semiotic principles as a methodological approach. This paper is of importance for practicing architects and society in the future as it offers new knowledge and understanding in identifying the suitable climatic consideration that may reflect regionalist design approach in modern administrative building. These elements then may be adopted in designing public buildings in the future with regional values that are important for expressing national culture to symbolize the identity of place and society as well as responsive to climate change.

  11. Hydrological response of the central Pyrenees to projected environmental change in the 21st century

    OpenAIRE

    López-Moreno, J. I.; S. M. Vicente-Serrano; J. Zabalza; J. Revuelto; Gilaberte, M.; Azorín-Molina, C.; Morán-Tejeda, E.; García-Ruiz, J. M.; Tague, C

    2014-01-01

    Streamflows in five Mediterranean mountain headwaters in the central Spanish Pyrenees were projected under various climate and land use change scenarios. Streamflows were simulated using the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys). The results show that changes in precipitation and temperature could cause a decline of annual streamflow between 13% and 23%, depending on the considered catchment. When the effect of increased forest cover in the basins is added to climate change effe...

  12. Product development in the socio-sphere game changing paradigms for 21st century breakthrough product development and innovation

    CERN Document Server

    2014-01-01

    This book provides a broad overview of a number of game-changing paradigms that are anticipated to reshape 21st century product development. Topics including cloud computing-based design, cloud manufacturing, crowd-sourcing and mass collaboration, open source and social product development will be discussed in the context of advanced distributed and collaborative product creation. The purpose of the book is threefold: (1) to provide decision makers in industry with a solid base for strategic design and manufacturing-related process re-organization; (2) to provide researchers and scientist with the state-of-the-art from an academic perspective as well as a research agenda aimed at advancing the theoretical foundations of the field; and (3) to serve as supplementary reading in design and manufacturing-related courses at universities and technical colleges.

  13. Changing Permafrost in the Arctic and its Global Effects in the 21st Century (PAGE21): A very large international and integrated project to measure the impact of permafrost degradation on the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lantuit, Hugues; Boike, Julia; Dahms, Melanie; Hubberten, Hans-Wolfgang

    2013-04-01

    The northern permafrost region contains approximately 50% of the estimated global below-ground organic carbon pool and more than twice as much as is contained in the current atmos-pheric carbon pool. The sheer size of this carbon pool, together with the large amplitude of predicted arctic climate change im-plies that there is a high potential for global-scale feedbacks from arctic climate change if these carbon reservoirs are desta-bilized. Nonetheless, significant gaps exist in our current state of knowledge that prevent us from producing accurate assess-ments of the vulnerability of the arctic permafrost to climate change, or of the implications of future climate change for global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Specifically: • Our understanding of the physical and biogeochemical processes at play in permafrost areas is still insuffi-cient in some key aspects • Size estimates for the high latitude continental carbon and nitrogen stocks vary widely between regions and research groups. • The representation of permafrost-related processes in global climate models still tends to be rudimentary, and is one reason for the frequently poor perform-ances of climate models at high latitudes. The key objectives of PAGE21 are: • to improve our understanding of the processes affect-ing the size of the arctic permafrost carbon and nitro-gen pools through detailed field studies and monitor-ing, in order to quantify their size and their vulnerability to climate change, • to produce, assemble and assess high-quality datasets in order to develop and evaluate representations of permafrost and related processes in global models, • to improve these models accordingly, • to use these models to reduce the uncertainties in feed-backs from arctic permafrost to global change, thereby providing the means to assess the feasibility of stabili-zation scenarios, and • to ensure widespread dissemination of our results in order to provide direct input into the ongoing debate on

  14. Is climatic regionalization in frame of estimated pedologic-ecological system actual in 21st century?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Středová, Hana; Chuchma, Filip

    2014-09-01

    Climatic variables defining climatic regions of estimated pedologic-ecological system (EPEU) were calculated based on fifty-year climatic data from 1961 to 2010. Obtained results were subsequently compared to intervals determining individual climatic regions defined by previous climatic data (1901-1950). In many agricultural intense areas sum of air temperature and mean air temperature exceeded upper limit. In terms of precipitation it is especially noticeable in the wet (higher) altitudes. Significant volatility was found for probability of dry periods from April to September. The values of the moisture certainty from April to September for the period 1961-2010 reached to several tens. In the final analysis, the only safe prediction is that the present and future are likely to be very different from the past. It is necessary to take it into account for actualization of EPEU methodology. Among the strongest arguments justifying the need of this actualization is in particular climate development since 1901, technological progress and improved measurement technology as well as automation and development of climate models coupled with simulations of complex characteristics and estimates of future climate. It is evident that the development of climate and other factors have an enormous impact on soil fertility. This should be also taken into consideration when fixing the official price. It is necessary to consider the possible replacement of the existing characteristics by more suitable (for example soil moisture balance). The findings might be summarized in few words: old climatic regions do not reflect actual climatic conditions.

  15. Biodiversity Scenarios: Projections of 21st century change in biodiversity and associated ecosystem services

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Scholes, B

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available . Many of these biodiversity trans- formations will involve large and sometimes highly visible modi�cations of ecosystems such as widespread conversion of tropical forest to pastures and croplands, climate-induced inva- sion of tundra by boreal..., such as the poleward migration of boreal forest due to climate change, but other projections such as massive extinctions due to mid-century climate change have weaker support from past and present trends at least for certain taxa (e.g., some plants and insects...

  16. Towards the creation of a climatic database for Catalonia (18th to 21st centuries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Prohom

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This article presents the project that is being carried out in the Climatology Department of the Servei Meteorològic de Catalunya (Meteorological Service of Catalonia, which aims to create a climatic database for Catalonia that is as complete and of the highest quality possible. Due to historical events, this climatic information is still incomplete and widely scattered in many different sources. As a consequence, it has been necessary to make a previous identification and cataloguing of the sources containing climatic material. Later on, a methodology used to integrate such a volume of information in a database was created, taking two aspects into consideration: the recovery of the metadata and the generation of climatic series. METADEM was developed to preserve all the information related to the metadata of a meteorological observatory, while a methodology was also designed to create complete and high quality climatic series. This one includes three levels: digitalization, quality control and homogeneity analysis. As a result of this project, which is still in its initial phase, ca. two hundred series have had their temporary coverage improved, while ca. one hundred and fifty new series have been identified.

  17. Taking Responsibility into All Matter: Engaging Levinas for the Climate of the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Betsan

    2016-01-01

    This paper works with Levinasian thought to ask how principles of responsibility can be engaged for the twenty-first century crisis of climate destabilization, and other matters of injustice and exploitation. A case is made for extending an ethics of responsibility from a human-centered view to include humans as interdependent with nature. After a…

  18. Taking Responsibility into All Matter: Engaging Levinas for the Climate of the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Betsan

    2016-01-01

    This paper works with Levinasian thought to ask how principles of responsibility can be engaged for the twenty-first century crisis of climate destabilization, and other matters of injustice and exploitation. A case is made for extending an ethics of responsibility from a human-centered view to include humans as interdependent with nature. After a…

  19. Divergent trajectories of Antarctic surface melt under two 21st century climate scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trusel, L.D.; Frey, Karen; Das, Sarah; Karnauskas, Kristopher; Kuipers Munneke, P.; van Meijgaard, E.; van den Broeke, M.R.

    2015-01-01

    Ice shelves modulate Antarctic contributions to sea-level rise and thereby represent a critical, climate-sensitive interface between the Antarctic ice sheet and the global ocean. Following rapid atmospheric warming over the past decades, Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves have progressively retreated,

  20. Exploring consensus in 21st century projections of climatically suitable areas for African vertebrates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia, Raquel A.; Burgess, Neil David; Cabeza, Mar

    2012-01-01

    projections. Using an ensemble forecasting framework, we examine projections of future shifts in climatic suitability, and their methodological uncertainties, for over 2500 species of mammals, birds, amphibians and snakes in sub-Saharan Africa. To summarize a priori the variability in the ensemble of 17...

  1. Divergent trajectories of Antarctic surface melt under two 21st century climate scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trusel, L.D.; Frey, Karen; Das, Sarah; Karnauskas, Kristopher; Kuipers Munneke, P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304831891; van Meijgaard, E.; van den Broeke, M.R.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073765643

    2015-01-01

    Ice shelves modulate Antarctic contributions to sea-level rise and thereby represent a critical, climate-sensitive interface between the Antarctic ice sheet and the global ocean. Following rapid atmospheric warming over the past decades, Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves have progressively retreated,

  2. Responses of Hydrological Processes to the Climate Change in the Zhujiang River Basin in the 21st Century%21世纪珠江流域水文过程对气候变化的响应

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘绿柳; 姜彤; 徐金阁; 翟建青; 罗勇

    2012-01-01

    应用HBV-D水文模型和多个气候模式预估了不同温室气体排放情景下珠江主干流西江的径流过程,分析了21世纪水资源量和洪水频率的变化.结果表明:2050年后年降水量和年径流量较基准期(1961-1990年)明显增加;流域平均的月降水量和径流量在5- 10月间均呈增加趋势,12月至次年2月呈减少趋势;年最大1d和7d洪量逐渐增加,重现期逐渐缩短.2030年前枯水期径流增加有望缓解枯水期用水压力,而2050年之后丰水期径流量以及洪水强度、发生频率的增加将给珠江流域防讯抗洪带来更大压力,在制订气候变化对流域水资源影响适应性对策时应考虑这两方面的影响.%Discharge from 1961 to 2099 through the outlet of Xijiang River, the biggest sub-basin of Zhujiang River, was simulated by hydrological model HBV-D using the precipitation and temperature projected from three climate models (GCMs) under three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. The following conclusions can be drawn through analyzing the changes of water resources and flood frequency relative to the reference period of 1961-1990. Annual precipitation and annual runoff will increase after 2050. In addition, Area average precipitation and runoff show increasing trends in each month from May to October, but decreasing trends from December to next February based on the results of Mann-Kendall trend analysis. More and larger floods will occur in future. Potential increased runoff during the low flow season before 2030 will ease the pressure of water demand, but the increased runoff in the high flow season, and more frequent and larger floods will bring more pressure on flood controlling after 2050. These impacts of climate change on hydrological processes in the Zhujiang River basin should be considered when planning adaptation and mitigation strategies.

  3. Simulating Changes in Fires and Ecology of the 21st Century Eurasian Boreal Forests of Siberia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ksenia Brazhnik

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Wildfires release the greatest amount of carbon into the atmosphere compared to other forest disturbances. To understand how current and potential future fire regimes may affect the role of the Eurasian boreal forest in the global carbon cycle, we employed a new, spatially-explicit fire module DISTURB-F (DISTURBance-Fire in tandem with a spatially-explicit, individually-based gap dynamics model SIBBORK (SIBerian BOReal forest simulator calibrated to Krasnoyarsk Region. DISTURB-F simulates the effect of forest fire on the boreal ecosystem, namely the mortality of all or only the susceptible trees (loss of biomass, i.e., carbon within the forested landscape. The fire module captures some important feedbacks between climate, fire and vegetation structure. We investigated the potential climate-driven changes in the fire regime and vegetation in middle and south taiga in central Siberia, a region with extensive boreal forest and rapidly changing climate. The output from this coupled simulation can be used to estimate carbon losses from the ecosystem as a result of fires of different sizes and intensities over the course of secondary succession (decades to centuries. Furthermore, it may be used to assess the post-fire carbon storage capacity of potential future forests, the structure and composition of which may differ significantly from current Eurasian boreal forests due to regeneration under a different climate.

  4. Changing track, changing tack: Dutch ideas for a robust environmental policy for the 21st century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogervorst, N.; Hajer, M.; Dietz, F.; Timmerhuis, J.; Kruitwagen, S.

    2013-01-01

    In the essay ‘Changing track, changing tack’, PBL summarises 40 years of Dutch environmental policy and draws lessons for the future; lessons that may also be interesting to other countries in the developed world. Looking back, we learned that the Dutch approach to environmental problems has been ve

  5. Pacific Northwest ecosystem responses to atmospheric changes in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    De La Cruz Tello, G.; Bonan, G. B.; Lombardozzi, D.; Levis, S.

    2013-12-01

    The terrestrial carbon cycle regulates carbon pools and fluxes throughout the Earth system. Currently, the Pacific Northwest is a carbon sink; it is gaining more carbon than it is releasing into the atmosphere. Investigating changes to this carbon sink is critical for understanding ecosystem responses to future environmental change. The Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4CN) was run with eight simulations for varying atmospheric changes. Half of the simulations ran using Qian climate data for 1948-2004, and half ran with climate data for 2075-2100 from the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario (RCP8.5). One run from each group was forced with an increased carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration of 937.87 parts per million (ppm), another was forced with an increased tropospheric ozone (O3) concentration, the third included a combination of increased O3 and CO2 concentrations, and the fourth was a control. Carbon pools decreased with the RCP8.5 scenario in all simulations. An increased CO2 concentration grew carbon pools in both climates. An increased O3 concentration had the opposite effect. A combination of O3 and CO2 showed that carbon pools increased, and the increase was smaller than with CO2 alone. Net primary production (NPP) and net ecosystem production (NEP) mirrored the carbon pool changes. Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) showed that an increased CO2 concentration increased the carbon sink in both climates. The region became a source of carbon with increased O3. The carbon sink increased with a combination of O3 and CO2, with the increase being smaller than the CO2 alone. The figure shows the changes in the ecosystem carbon pool resulting from increasing gas concentrations in various simulations. The x axis represents the future climate scenario control. The black box represents the difference between the carbon pool with increased carbon dioxide (CO2) and the control simulation. The grey box is the difference in the carbon pool between the simulation

  6. High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, M C; Potapov, P V; Moore, R; Hancher, M; Turubanova, S A; Tyukavina, A; Thau, D; Stehman, S V; Goetz, S J; Loveland, T R; Kommareddy, A; Egorov, A; Chini, L; Justice, C O; Townshend, J R G

    2013-11-15

    Quantification of global forest change has been lacking despite the recognized importance of forest ecosystem services. In this study, Earth observation satellite data were used to map global forest loss (2.3 million square kilometers) and gain (0.8 million square kilometers) from 2000 to 2012 at a spatial resolution of 30 meters. The tropics were the only climate domain to exhibit a trend, with forest loss increasing by 2101 square kilometers per year. Brazil's well-documented reduction in deforestation was offset by increasing forest loss in Indonesia, Malaysia, Paraguay, Bolivia, Zambia, Angola, and elsewhere. Intensive forestry practiced within subtropical forests resulted in the highest rates of forest change globally. Boreal forest loss due largely to fire and forestry was second to that in the tropics in absolute and proportional terms. These results depict a globally consistent and locally relevant record of forest change.

  7. High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, M.C.; Potapov, P.V.; Moore, R.; Hancher, M.; Turubanova, S.A.; Tyukavina, A.; Thau, D.; Stehman, S.V.; Goetz, S.J.; Loveland, T.R.; Kommareddy, A.; Egorov, A.; Chini, L.; Justice, C.O.; Townshend, J.R.G.

    2013-01-01

    Quantification of global forest change has been lacking despite the recognized importance of forest ecosystem services. In this study, Earth observation satellite data were used to map global forest loss (2.3 million square kilometers) and gain (0.8 million square kilometers) from 2000 to 2012 at a spatial resolution of 30 meters. The tropics were the only climate domain to exhibit a trend, with forest loss increasing by 2101 square kilometers per year. Brazil’s well-documented reduction in deforestation was offset by increasing forest loss in Indonesia, Malaysia, Paraguay, Bolivia, Zambia, Angola, and elsewhere. Intensive forestry practiced within subtropical forests resulted in the highest rates of forest change globally. Boreal forest loss due largely to fire and forestry was second to that in the tropics in absolute and proportional terms. These results depict a globally consistent and locally relevant record of forest change.

  8. Projected changes of Antarctic krill habitat by the end of the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piñones, Andrea; Fedorov, Alexey V.

    2016-08-01

    Climate change is rapidly shaping the living environment of the most abundant keystone species of the Antarctic marine food web, Antarctic krill. Projected future changes for the krill habitat include a sustained increase in ocean temperature and changes in sea ice and chlorophyll a. Here we investigate how these factors affect the early life history of krill and identify the regions around Antarctica where the impact will be greatest. Our tool is a temperature-dependent krill growth model forced by data from comprehensive greenhouse warming simulations. We find that by the year 2100 localized regions along the western Weddell Sea, isolated areas of the Indian Antarctic , and the Amundsen/Bellingshausen Sea will support successful spawning habitats for krill. The failure of potentially successful spawning will have a strong impact on the already declining adult populations with consequences for the Antarctic marine food web, having both ecological and commercial ramifications.

  9. Biotic and human vulnerability to projected changes in ocean biogeochemistry over the 21st century.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camilo Mora

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Ongoing greenhouse gas emissions can modify climate processes and induce shifts in ocean temperature, pH, oxygen concentration, and productivity, which in turn could alter biological and social systems. Here, we provide a synoptic global assessment of the simultaneous changes in future ocean biogeochemical variables over marine biota and their broader implications for people. We analyzed modern Earth System Models forced by greenhouse gas concentration pathways until 2100 and showed that the entire world's ocean surface will be simultaneously impacted by varying intensities of ocean warming, acidification, oxygen depletion, or shortfalls in productivity. In contrast, only a small fraction of the world's ocean surface, mostly in polar regions, will experience increased oxygenation and productivity, while almost nowhere will there be ocean cooling or pH elevation. We compiled the global distribution of 32 marine habitats and biodiversity hotspots and found that they would all experience simultaneous exposure to changes in multiple biogeochemical variables. This superposition highlights the high risk for synergistic ecosystem responses, the suite of physiological adaptations needed to cope with future climate change, and the potential for reorganization of global biodiversity patterns. If co-occurring biogeochemical changes influence the delivery of ocean goods and services, then they could also have a considerable effect on human welfare. Approximately 470 to 870 million of the poorest people in the world rely heavily on the ocean for food, jobs, and revenues and live in countries that will be most affected by simultaneous changes in ocean biogeochemistry. These results highlight the high risk of degradation of marine ecosystems and associated human hardship expected in a future following current trends in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

  10. Temperature Changes In Poland In 21st Century – Results Of Global Simulation And Regional Downscaling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilarski Michał

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The main source of information about future climate changes are the results of numerical simulations performed in scientific institutions around the world. Present projections from global circulation models (GCMs are too coarse and are only usefulness for the world, hemisphere or continent spatial analysis. The low horizontal resolution of global models (100–200 km, does not allow to assess climate changes at regional or local scales. Therefore it is necessary to lead studies concerning how to detail the GCMs information. The problem of information transfer from the GCMs to higher spatial scale solve: dynamical and statistical downscaling. The dynamical downscaling method based on “nesting” global information in a regional models (RCMs, which solve the equations of motion and the thermodynamic laws in a small spatial scale (10–50 km. However, the statistical downscaling models (SDMs identify the relationship between large-scale variable (predictor and small-scale variable (predictand implementing linear regression. The main goal of the study was to compare the global model scenarios of thermal condition in Poland in XXI century with the more accurate statistical and dynamical regional models outcomes. Generally studies confirmed usefulness of statistical downscaling to detail information from GCMs. Basic results present that regional models captured local aspects of thermal conditions variability especially in coastal zone.

  11. Rapid changes in the seasonal sea level cycle along the US Gulf coast in the early 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, T.; Calafat, F. M.; Luther, M. E.

    2013-12-01

    annual amplitude and the rapid increase over the last decade in the eastern GOM. We have developed several multiple regression models (MRM) with a varying number of independent predictors to reconstruct the temporal changes back to the mid and early 20th century (depending on data availability of the predictors). The models are able to explain up to 85% of the observed variability (70% on average across sites) and major parts of the rapid increase in the early 21st century. Multicollinearity between the predictors makes it difficult to quantify the contribution of individual parameters to the increase but sensitivity tests outline that changes in the annual cycle of the air surface temperature (which in turn directly propagates into the sea surface temperature) played a dominant role. The MRMs allow us to reconstruct the seasonal sea level cycle back to the early 20th century at all tide gauge sites and will be used in a follow-up study in combination with regional climate model output to assess potential future changes.

  12. Northern Eurasia Future Initiative: Facing the Challenges of Global Change in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groisman, Pavel; Gutman, Garik; Gulev, Sergey; Maksyutov, Shamil; Qi, Jiaguo

    2016-04-01

    During the past 12 years, the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) - an interdisciplinary program of internationally-supported Earth systems and science research - has addressed large-scale and long-term manifestations of climate and environmental changes over Northern Eurasia and their impact on the Global Earth system. With more than 1500 peer-reviewed journal publications and 40 books to its credit, NEESPI's activities resulted in significant scientific outreach. This created a new research realm through self-organization of NEESPI scientists in a broad research network, accumulation of knowledge while developing new tools (observations, models, and collaborative networks) and producing new, exciting results that can be applied to directly support decision-making for societal needs. This realm was summed up at the Synthesis NEESPI Workshop in Prague, Czech Republic (April 9-12, 2015) where it was decided to shift gradually the foci of regional studies in Northern Eurasia towards applications with the following major Science Question: " What dynamic and interactive change(s) will affect societal well-being, activities, and health, and what might be the mitigation and adaptation strategies that could support sustainable development and decision-making activities in Northern Eurasia?". To answer this question requires a stronger socio-economic component in the ongoing and future regional studies focused on sustainable societal development under changing climatic and environmental conditions, especially, under conditions when societal decision-making impacts and feeds back on the environment. This made the NEESPI studies closer to the ICSU research initiative "Future Earth". Accordingly, the NEESPI Research Team decided to reorganize in the nearest future NEESPI into "Northern Eurasia Future Initiative" (NEFI) and began development of its Programmatic White Paper (in preparation at the time of this abstract submission). The NEFI research

  13. Simulation des changements climatiques au cours du XXIe siècle incluant l'ozone stratosphériqueSimulation of climate changes during the 21st century including stratospheric ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royer, Jean-François; Cariolle, Daniel; Chauvin, Fabrice; Déqué, Michel; Douville, Hervé; Hu, Rong-Ming; Planton, Serge; Rascol, Annie; Ricard, Jean-Louis; Salas Y Melia, David; Sevault, Florence; Simon, Pascal; Somot, Samuel; Tyteca, Sophie; Terray, Laurent; Valcke, Sophie

    Two climate simulations of 150 years, performed with a coupled ocean/sea-ice/atmosphere model including stratospheric ozone, respectively with and without heterogeneous chemistry, simulate the tropospheric warming associated with an increase of the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide and other trace gases since 1950 and their impact on sea-ice extent, as well as the stratospheric cooling and its impact on ozone concentration. The scenario with heterogeneous chemistry reproduces the formation of the ozone hole over the South Pole from the 1970s and its deepening until the present time, and shows that the ozone hole should progressively fill during the coming decades. To cite this article: J.-F. Royer et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 147-154.

  14. Response of the ice cap Hardangerjøkulen in southern Norway to the 20th and 21st century climates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. H. Giesen

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Glaciers respond to mass balance changes by adjusting their surface elevation and area. These properties in their turn affect the local and area-averaged mass balance. To incorporate this interdependence in the response of glaciers to climate change, models should include an interactive scheme coupling mass balance and ice dynamics. In this study, a spatially distributed mass balance model, comprising surface energy balance calculations, was coupled to a vertically integrated ice-flow model based on the shallow ice approximation. The coupled model was applied to the ice cap Hardangerjøkulen in southern Norway. The available glacio-meteorological records, mass balance and glacier length change measurements were utilized for model calibration and validation. Forced with meteorological data from nearby synoptic weather stations, the coupled model realistically simulated the observed mass balance and glacier length changes during the 20th century. The mean climate for the period 1961–1990, computed from local meteorological data, was used as a basis to prescribe climate projections for the 21st century at Hardangerjøkulen. For a linear temperature increase of 3 °C from 1961–1990 to 2071–2100, the modelled net mass balance soon becomes negative at all altitudes and Hardangerjøkulen disappears around the year 2100. The projected changes in the other meteorological variables could at most partly compensate for the effect of the projected warming.

  15. Whitehead Policy Symposium. The Human Genome Project: Science, law, and social change in the 21st century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nichols, E.K.

    2000-02-17

    Advances in the biomedical sciences, especially in human genomics, will dramatically influence law, medicine, public health, and many other sectors of our society in the decades ahead. The public already senses the revolutionary nature of genomic knowledge. In the US and Europe, we have seen widespread discussions about genetic discrimination in health insurance; privacy issues raised by the proliferation of DNA data banks; the challenge of interpreting new DNA diagnostic tests; changing definitions of what it means to be healthy; and the science and ethics of cloning animals and human beings. The primary goal of the Whitehead/ASLME Policy Symposium was to provide a bridge between the research community and professionals, who were just beginning to grasp the potential impact of new genetic technologies on their fields. The ''Human Genome Project: Science, Law, and Social Change in the 21st Century'' initially was designed as a forum for 300-500 physicians, lawyers, consumers, ethicists, and scientists to explore the impact of new genetic technologies and prepare for the challenges ahead.

  16. Monsoon Change in East Asia in the 21st Century: Results of RegCM3%Monsoon Change in East Asia in the 21st Century: Results of RegCM3

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUI Yue; LANG Xian-Mei

    2012-01-01

    The authors investigate monsoon change in East Asia in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario using the results of a regional climate model, RegCM3, with a high horizontal resolution. First, the authors evaluate the model's performance compared with NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, showing that the model can reliably reproduce the basic climatology of both winter and summer monsoons over East Asia. Next, it is found that the winter monsoon in East Asia would slightly weaken in the 21st century with spatial differences. Over northern East China, anomalous southerly winds would dominate in the mid-and late-21st century because the zonal land-sea thermal contrast is expected to become smaller, due to a stronger warming trend over land than over ocean. However, the intensity of the summer monsoon in East Asia shows a statistically significant upward trend over this century because the zonal land-sea thermal contrast between East Asia and the western North Pacific would become larger, which, in turn, would lead to larger sea level pressure gradients throughout East Asia and extending to the adjacent ocean.

  17. Changing Demographics and Needs Assessment for Learning Centers in the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, Emily Miller; Hodges, Russ; Hernandez, Elda Patricia

    2017-01-01

    Students entering postsecondary education embody America's growing diversity. Rapid demographics shifts and changing student attendance patterns pose new challenges for higher education. Enrollment trends vary across states and regions with some areas seeing increased student populations while others are experiencing declining enrollments (Center…

  18. Revolutionary land use change in the 21st century: Is (rangeland) science relevant?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrick, J.E.; Brown, J.R.; Bestelmeyer, B.T.; Andrews, S.S.; Baldi, G.; Davies, J.; Duniway, M.; Havstad, K.M.; Karl, J.W.; Karlen, D.L.; Peters, Debra P. C.; Quinton, J.N.; Riginos, C.; Shaver, P.L.; Steinaker, D.; Twomlow, S.

    2012-01-01

    Rapidly increasing demand for food, fiber, and fuel together with new technologies and the mobility of global capital are driving revolutionary changes in land use throughout the world. Efforts to increase land productivity include conversion of millions of hectares of rangelands to crop production, including many marginal lands with low resistance and resilience to degradation. Sustaining the productivity of these lands requires careful land use planning and innovative management systems. Historically, this responsibility has been left to agronomists and others with expertise in crop production. In this article, we argue that the revolutionary land use changes necessary to support national and global food security potentially make rangeland science more relevant now than ever. Maintaining and increasing relevance will require a revolutionary change in range science from a discipline that focuses on a particular land use or land cover to one that addresses the challenge of managing all lands that, at one time, were considered to be marginal for crop production. We propose four strategies to increase the relevance of rangeland science to global land management: 1) expand our awareness and understanding of local to global economic, social, and technological trends in order to anticipate and identify drivers and patterns of conversion; 2) emphasize empirical studies and modeling that anticipate the biophysical (ecosystem services) and societal consequences of large-scale changes in land cover and use; 3) significantly increase communication and collaboration with the disciplines and sectors of society currently responsible for managing the new land uses; and 4) develop and adopt a dynamic and flexible resilience-based land classification system and data-supported conceptual models (e.g., state-and-transition models) that represent all lands, regardless of use and the consequences of land conversion to various uses instead of changes in state or condition that are

  19. Boosting 21st Century Skills through Moroccan ELT Textbooks

    OpenAIRE

    Hassan Ait Bouzid

    2016-01-01

    Research shows that the changing realities of the 21st century necessitate a fundamental shift in language education towards promoting 21st Century Skills. This paper investigates the extent to which three Moroccan ELT textbooks currently used in teaching second year Baccalaureate students in public high school provide activities that help learners build skills that match the needs of the 21st century. It also explores the types of activities that are used to promote these skills and eventual...

  20. Social Media and Political Change in the 21st century: the African Experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amaechi M. Chidi

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Technology no doubt is the engine that drives the modern world, both for destruction and good; and one of the wonders of modern technology is the computer and the allied internet. Modern communication network now relies on the internet using the computer and mobile telephones. In fact, there is no place to hide with the internet and the handy smart phones with which calls are made and pictures and videos recorded and transmitted across boundaries and continents. The advancements in the computer and internet systems in the last decade of the 20th century produced radical changes in both internet connectivity and features available to users through which people are linked across the globe. The three most basic of these internet features that have radically shaped modern communication are, Facebook, Twitters, and the U-Tube, among others. The three are the most popular and core elements of the social media compartment of our modern internet system. Computer technology has broken the boundaries of closed societies and systems, making actions and activities in such systems open and available to the wider world. Through the internet and its core elements, repressive regimes have been exposed and activities going on in liberal societies are shared. Interestingly, Africa became the starting point for the agitation for political change, which was bolstered by the social media. The so-called “Arab Spring”, which first started in Africa through expositions of social media, saw the dismantling of three despotic and ruthless regimes in Arab North Africa, thus giving vent to agitations for an end to dictatorship and illiberality in other Arab states. The paper will examine the role of the social media in political transformation and change of dictatorial regimes in Africa and the consequences such would have on the overall political template of Africa.

  1. Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannaby, Heather; Palmer, Matthew D.; Howard, Tom; Bricheno, Lucy; Calvert, Daley; Krijnen, Justin; Wood, Richard; Tinker, Jonathan; Bunney, Chris; Harle, James; Saulter, Andrew; O'Neill, Clare; Bellingham, Clare; Lowe, Jason

    2016-05-01

    Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time-mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using ˜ 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean - NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled ( ˜ 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980 to 2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea-surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data, respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m (0.74 m) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 (8.5) scenarios. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2-year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically

  2. The impact of social changes on the mental health of women in the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen Herrman

    2016-01-01

    The strategies for promoting the mental health of women and girls and for tackling their mental health problems are overlapping. The actions in each case include a strong focus on changing social attitudes and investment and the development of partnerships and local participation. For example, the maternal and child health problems relating to perinatal mental disorders potentially can be prevented and managed in low- and high-income settings by effective actions at individual and community level. Comprehensive approaches are needed to preventing suicidal behavior among women and girls, especially in low-income countries and communities. The World Psychiatric Association is working with partners to set priorities and develop a framework for action.

  3. Strategic Changes in Transnational Corporations as an Adjustment to the Challenges of the 21st Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdalena Rosińska-Bukowska

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The article aims to discuss the direction of changes in the strategies of the most powerful transnational corporations (Top-TNCs as a result of adjustments to the new challenges created by the evolving global economy – an attempt to identify the fundamental, universal pillars of the strategy the Top-TNCs. Research Design & Methods: The paper, apart from literature review and its critique, presents the results of a survey among 252 TNCs. The author conducted indepth studies – using the Multidimensional Statistical Analysis, the Strategic Analyses, as well as the Grounded Theory Method. Findings: The changes in the strategies of the Top-TNCs proceeded according to a uniform scheme – the authorial Model of Business Integration was presented as the standard for TNCs adjusting to further challenges posed by the evolving global economy. Based on the survey, the author identified universal pillars of the Top-TNC strategy: glocalization, business networking, orchestration and coopetition. Implications & Recommendations: TNCs desiring to engage in the most efficient system for creating international competitiveness should apply the following tactics: link globalization and regionalization, build a multi-level relationship system, creatively combine various types of organizational and social structures, simultaneously employ cooperation and competition. Contribution & Value Added: The work sought to provide evidence that regardless of the area of activity, the pillars of strategy for Top-TNCs are the same in terms of the core, but are often implemented in different forms. The author proposes the original concept for assessing the competitiveness of network enterprises – the Synthetic Indicator of Creation of Added Value.

  4. Climate envelope predictions indicate an enlarged suitable wintering distribution for Great Bustards (Otis tarda dybowskii in China for the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunrong Mi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The rapidly changing climate makes humans realize that there is a critical need to incorporate climate change adaptation into conservation planning. Whether the wintering habitats of Great Bustards (Otis tarda dybowskii, a globally endangered migratory subspecies whose population is approximately 1,500–2,200 individuals in China, would be still suitable in a changing climate environment, and where this could be found, is an important protection issue. In this study, we selected the most suitable species distribution model for bustards using climate envelopes from four machine learning models, combining two modelling approaches (TreeNet and Random Forest with two sets of variables (correlated variables removed or not. We used common evaluation methods area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC and the True Skill Statistic (TSS as well as independent test data to identify the most suitable model. As often found elsewhere, we found Random Forest with all environmental variables outperformed in all assessment methods. When we projected the best model to the latest IPCC-CMIP5 climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 in three Global Circulation Models (GCMs, and averaged the project results of the three models, we found that suitable wintering habitats in the current bustard distribution would increase during the 21st century. The Northeast Plain and the south of North China were projected to become two major wintering areas for bustards. However, the models suggest that some currently suitable habitats will experience a reduction, such as Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin. Although our results suggested that suitable habitats in China would widen with climate change, greater efforts should be undertaken to assess and mitigate unstudied human disturbance, such as pollution, hunting, agricultural development, infrastructure construction, habitat

  5. Demographic Changes on Croatian Islands at the Beginning of the 21st Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Lajić

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Depopulation was the main feature of the demographic development of Croatian islands during a large part of the 20th century. It started in 1921 and ended in the last decade of the century according to the official statistical indicators. It was caused by a long-term emigration from the islands, arising both from economic (agrarian over¬population, land industrialisation, de-agrarisation, the crises of certain agricultural activities, monoculture on some of the islands, etc. and political reasons (political emigration, Italian optants. Depopulation due to emigration was crucial in creating total depopulation up to the 1960s, and after that period it was joined by natural depopulation as well, leading many island communities to a state of extreme depo¬pulation – extinction. But since the 1991 Census, the general population change on Croatian islands has got a positive sign. However, the conclusion that population revitalisation occurred on Croatian islands was soon denied by a series of facts. As the law, popularly called “the law on vacation homes”, has been applied since 1993, a large number of second homes owners opted for this location as the predominant place of residence, although they do not reside there for the most part of the year, thus creating a significant contingent of “fictitious population”. Another theory whi¬ch denies that our islands are experiencing demographic upswing and revitalisation rests on the fact that far and away the highest rates of population growth have been recorded on the bridged islands. We believe that these islands (also characterized by the highest proportion of second homes in the total number of objects do not share the fate of islandness (insularity as the other “real islands” do, owing to their solid connection to the mainland so that, in fact, they are no longer isolated. If we exclude the population trends of this group of islands from the total population change of the entire

  6. Large carnivores, moose, and humans: A changing paradigm of predator management in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Charles C.; Swenson, J.E.; Miller, Sterling D.

    2003-01-01

    We compare and contrast the evolution of human attitudes toward large carnivores between Europe and North America. In general, persecution of large carnivores began much earlier in Europe than North America. Likewise, conservation programs directed at restoration and recovery appeared in European history well before they did in North America. Together, the pattern suggests there has been an evolution in how humans perceive large predators. Our early ancestors were physically vulnerable to large carnivores and developed corresponding attitudes of respect, avoidance, and acceptance. As civilization evolved and man developed weapons, the balance shifted. Early civilizations, in particular those with pastoral ways, attempted to eliminate large carnivores as threats to life and property. Brown bears (Ursus arctos) and wolves (Canis lupus) were consequently extirpated from much of their range in Europe and in North America south of Canada. Efforts to protect brown bears began in the late 1880s in some European countries and population reintroductions and augmentations are ongoing. They are less controversial than in North America. On the other hand, there are no wolf introductions, as has occurred in North America, and Europeans have a more negative attitude towards wolves. Control of predators to enhance ungulate harvest varies. In Western Europe, landowners own the hunting rights to ungulates. In the formerly communistic Eastern European countries and North America, hunting rights are held in common, although this is changing in some Eastern European countries. Wolf control to increase harvests of moose (Alces alces) occurs in parts of North America and Russia; bear control for similar reasons only occurs in parts of North America. Surprisingly, bears and wolves are not controlled to increase ungulates where private landowners have the hunting rights in Europe, although wolves were originally exterminated from these areas. Both the inability of scientific research to

  7. Soaring into the 21st Century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, John

    1993-01-01

    Describes the implementation of ideas from the National Congress on Catholic Schools for the 21st Century at Saint Thomas Aquinas School in the South Bronx. Discusses Catholic identity, school spirit, social change, and school development with respect to the school's long-range planning for success in an economically depressed neighborhood. (MAB)

  8. The importance of sea-ice area biases in 21st century multi-model projections of Antarctic net precipitation and temperature and their relative change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bracegirdle, T.

    2015-12-01

    Climate models exhibit large biases in sea ice area (SIA) in their historical simulations. This study has explored the impacts of these biases on multi-model uncertainty in CMIP5 ensemble projections of 21st century change in Antarctic surface temperature, net precipitation and SIA. The analysis is based on time slice climatologies in the RCP8.5 future scenario (2070-2099) and historical (1970-1999) simulations across 37 different CMIP5 models. Projected changes in net precipitation, temperature and SIA are found to be strongly associated with simulated historical mean SIA (e.g. cross-model correlations of r = 0.77, 0.70 and -0.86, respectively). Furthermore, historical SIA bias is found to have a large impact on the simulated ratio between net precipitation response and temperature response. This ratio is smaller in models with smaller-than-observed historical SIA. These findings are particularly relevant to quantifying and reducing model uncertainty in projections of Antarctic surface mass balance and associated contributions to sea level change.

  9. Expert voices for change: bridging the silos-towards healthy and sustainable settings for the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dooris, Mark

    2013-03-01

    The settings approach to health promotion, first advocated in the 1986 Ottawa Charter for Health Promotion, was introduced as an expression of the 'new public health', generating both acclaim and critical discourse. Reflecting an ecological model, a systems perspective and whole system thinking, the approach has been applied in a wide range of geographical and organisational contexts. This paper reports on a qualitative study undertaken through in-depth interviews with key individuals widely acknowledged to have been the architects and pilots of the settings movement. Exploring the development of the settings approach, policy and practice integration, and connectedness 'outwards', 'upwards' and 'beyond health', it concludes that the settings approach has much to offer-but will only realise its potential impact on the wellbeing of people, places and the planet if it builds bridges between silos and reconfigures itself for the globalised 21st century.

  10. Potential Damage to Modern Building Materials from 21st Century Air Pollution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Brimblecombe

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The evolution of damage to building materials has been estimated for the 21st century, with a particular focus on aluminum, zinc, copper, plastic, paint, and rubber in urban areas. We set idealized air pollution and climates to represent London and Prague across the period 1950–2100. Environmental parameters were used to estimate future recession, corrosion, and loss of properties through published damage or dose-response functions. The 21st century seems to provide a less aggressive environment for stone and metals than recent times. Improvements in air quality are the most relevant drivers for this amelioration. Changes in climate predicted for the 21st century do not alter this picture. On the other hand, polymeric materials, plastic, paint, and rubber might show slightly increased rates of degradation, to some extent the result of enhanced oxidant concentrations, but also the possibility of contributions from more solar radiation.

  11. 21st Century Transformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Nadene; Stone, Jody

    2009-01-01

    Education has changed, and at no time is this more evident than when working with students who are tethered to the Internet, are fully engaged in technology-based social networking, create blogs and wikis, and expect instantaneous responses as they twitter with their peers around the world. Some of the knowledge and skills that millennial students…

  12. A comparative analysis of international frameworks for 21st century competences: implications for national curriculum policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voogt, Joke; Pareja Roblin, N.N.

    2012-01-01

    National curricula need to change drastically to comply with the competences needed for the 21st century. In this paper eight frameworks describing 21st century competences were analysed. A comprehensive search for information about 21st century competences was conducted across the official websites

  13. A Comparative Analysis of International Frameworks for 21st Century Competences: Implications for National Curriculum Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voogt, Joke; Roblin, Natalie Pareja

    2012-01-01

    National curricula need to change drastically to comply with the competences needed for the 21st century. In this paper eight frameworks describing 21st century competences were analysed. A comprehensive search for information about 21st century competences was conducted across the official websites of the selected frameworks, resulting in 32…

  14. A Comparative Analysis of International Frameworks for 21st Century Competences: Implications for National Curriculum Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voogt, Joke; Roblin, Natalie Pareja

    2012-01-01

    National curricula need to change drastically to comply with the competences needed for the 21st century. In this paper eight frameworks describing 21st century competences were analysed. A comprehensive search for information about 21st century competences was conducted across the official websites of the selected frameworks, resulting in 32…

  15. Collective-Intelligence Recommender Systems: Advancing Computer Tailoring for Health Behavior Change Into the 21st Century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadasivam, Rajani Shankar; Cutrona, Sarah L; Kinney, Rebecca L; Marlin, Benjamin M; Mazor, Kathleen M; Lemon, Stephenie C; Houston, Thomas K

    2016-03-07

    What is the next frontier for computer-tailored health communication (CTHC) research? In current CTHC systems, study designers who have expertise in behavioral theory and mapping theory into CTHC systems select the variables and develop the rules that specify how the content should be tailored, based on their knowledge of the targeted population, the literature, and health behavior theories. In collective-intelligence recommender systems (hereafter recommender systems) used by Web 2.0 companies (eg, Netflix and Amazon), machine learning algorithms combine user profiles and continuous feedback ratings of content (from themselves and other users) to empirically tailor content. Augmenting current theory-based CTHC with empirical recommender systems could be evaluated as the next frontier for CTHC. The objective of our study was to uncover barriers and challenges to using recommender systems in health promotion. We conducted a focused literature review, interviewed subject experts (n=8), and synthesized the results. We describe (1) limitations of current CTHC systems, (2) advantages of incorporating recommender systems to move CTHC forward, and (3) challenges to incorporating recommender systems into CTHC. Based on the evidence presented, we propose a future research agenda for CTHC systems. We promote discussion of ways to move CTHC into the 21st century by incorporation of recommender systems.

  16. Changing trends of speech outcomes after total laryngectomy in the 21st century: a single-center study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Seo; Raffa, Francesca; Ojo, Rosemary; Landera, Mario A; Weed, Donald T; Sargi, Zouka; Lundy, Donna

    2014-11-01

    To describe the speech rehabilitation outcomes of patients undergoing total laryngectomy (TL) in the 21st century. Retrospective chart review. Tertiary academic center Retrospective review of 167 patients who underwent TL from June 2000 to February 2012. Demographics, disease variables, and surgical factors were reviewed. Primary alaryngeal speech modality, speech outcome, and tracheoesophageal puncture (TEP) complication rates were assessed. Overall TEP speech success rate (primary or secondary) was 72%. Overall TEP speech success rate was 76% for those with primary TEP and was 68% for those with secondary TEP. TEP speech success rates at first, second, and beyond second year were 75%, 72%, and 70%, respectively. Success rates for primary TL, salvage TL, primary TL with pharyngeal reconstruction, or salvage TL with pharyngeal reconstruction groups were 71%, 72%, 73%, and 71%, respectively. TEP-related complications occurred in 43% of patients, with no difference in complication rates between primary versus salvage TL or primary versus secondary TEP. For those with complications, TEP success rate was 65%. This study showed TEP speech-outcome success rates lower than what has been historically reported. There was no significant difference in TEP speech outcome between primary versus salvage TL or primary versus secondary TEP. Patients with TEP-related complications had TEP speech-outcome success rates comparable to those without any complication. TEP may continue to be a superior option as a mode of speech in patients with TL, including those undergoing salvage TL. 4. © 2014 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  17. Scenarios of biodiversity loss in southern Africa in the 21st century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biggs, R.H.; Simons, H.; Bakkenes, M.; Scholes, R.J.; Eickhout, B.; Vuuren, van D.; Alkemade, R.

    2008-01-01

    The rich biodiversity of southern Africa has to date been relatively unimpacted by the activities of modern society, but to what degree will this situation persist into the 21st century? We use a leading global environmental assessment model (IMAGE) to explore future land use and climate change in s

  18. Productivity changes in the Mediterranean Sea for the 21st century in response to changes in the regional atmospheric forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego M Macias

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean Sea is considered as a hotspot for climate change because of its location in the temperate region and because it is a semi-enclosed basin surrounded by highly populated and developed countries. Some expected changes include an increase in air temperature and changes in the periodicity and spatial distribution of rainfall. Alongside, demographic and politics changes will alter freshwater quantity and quality. All these changes will have an impact on the ecological status of marine ecosystems in the basin. We use a 3D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical coupled model of the entire Mediterranean Sea to explore potential changes in primary productivity (mean values and spatial distribution under two emission scenarios (rcp4.5 and rcp8.5.To isolate the effects of changes in atmospheric conditions alone, in this ensemble of simulations rivers conditions (water flow and nutrient concentrations are kept unchanged and equal to its climatological values for the last 10 years. Despite the significant warming trend, the mean integrated primary production rate in the entire basin remains almost unchanged. However characteristic spatial differences are consistently found in the different simulations. The western basin becomes more oligotrophic associated to a surface density decrease (increase stratification because of the influence of the Atlantic waters which prevents surface salinity to increase. In the eastern basin, on the contrary, all model runs simulates an increase in surface production linked to a density increase (less stratification because of the increasing evaporation rate. The simulations presented here demonstrate the basic response patterns of the Mediterranean Sea ecosystem to changing climatological conditions. Although unlikely, they could be considered as a ‘baseline’ of expected consequences of climatic changes on marine conditions in the Mediterranean.

  19. Climate-model induced differences in the 21st century global and regional glacier contributions to sea-level rise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giesen, R.H.; Oerlemans, J.

    2013-01-01

    The large uncertainty in future global glacier volume projections partly results from a substantial range in future climate conditions projected by global climate models. This study addresses the effect of global and regional differences in climate input data on the projected twenty-first century

  20. The future in our hands. 21 climate policy statements for the 21st century; Die Zukunft in unseren Haenden. 21 Thesen zur Klimaschutzpolitik des 21. Jahrhunderts und ihre Begruendungen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weiss, Martin; Erdmenger, Christoph; Strohschein, Jan (and others)

    2005-10-15

    The German climate policy for the 21st century is concerned with the following topics: the climate change and its consequences in Germany, future climate changes and the consequences; limitation of the temperature increase and required activity goals, - required long-term and global emission reductions; adaptation to the climate change consequences, global emission trends; reduction of the global emissions, including USA, emerging and developing countries; proposal of the Federal Environment Agency: four-step-convergence; costs of climate protection versus costs of non-action; further positive effects of climate protection, struggle against poverty, and promotion of renewable energies; anchoring the climate protection in other policy areas; status of the Kyoto protocol implementation in Germany; reduction of greenhouse gas emissions until 2050; consequent climate protection and ecological finance reform; emissions trading; reduction of energy consumption; renewal of the power plant mix; contribution of renewable energy sources to the electricity supply; reduction of the traffic induced carbon dioxide emission; contribution of agriculture to climate protection; guiding ideas of climate protecting behavior.

  1. Climate mitigation’s impact on global and regional electric power sector water use in the 21st Century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dooley, James J.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan

    2013-08-05

    Over the course of this coming century, global electricity use is expected to grow at least five fold and if stringent greenhouse gas emissions controls are in place the growth could be more than seven fold from current levels. Given that the electric power sector represents the second largest anthropogenic use of water and given growing concerns about the nature and extent of future water scarcity driven by population growth and a changing climate, significant concern has been expressed about the electricity sector’s use of water going forward. In this paper, the authors demonstrate that an often overlooked but absolutely critical issue that needs to be taken into account in discussions about the sustainability of the electric sector’s water use going forward is the tremendous turn over in electricity capital stock that will occur over the course of this century; i.e., in the scenarios examined here more than 80% of global electricity production in the year 2050 is from facilities that have not yet been built. The authors show that because of the large scale changes in the global electricity system, the water withdrawal intensity of electricity production is likely to drop precipitously with the result being relatively constant water withdrawals over the course of the century even in the face of the large growth in electricity usage. The ability to cost effectively reduce the water intensity of power plants with carbon dioxide capture and storage systems in particular is key to constraining overall global water use.

  2. Rethinking Global Water Governance for the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajami, N. K.; Cooley, H.

    2012-12-01

    Growing pressure on the world's water resources is having major impacts on our social and economic well-being. According to the United Nations, today, at least 1.1 billion people do not have access to clean drinking water. Pressures on water resources are likely to continue to worsen in response to decaying and crumbling infrastructure, continued population growth, climate change, degradation of water quality, and other challenges. If these challenges are not addressed, they pose future risks for many countries around the world, making it urgent that efforts are made to understand both the nature of the problems and the possible solutions that can effectively reduce the associated risks. There is growing understanding of the need to rethink governance to meet the 21st century water challenges. More and more water problems extend over traditional national boundaries and to the global community and the types and numbers of organizations addressing water issues are large and growing. Economic globalization and transnational organizations and activities point to the need for improving coordination and integration on addressing water issues, which are increasingly tied to food and energy security, trade, global climate change, and other international policies. We will present some of the key limitations of global water governance institutions and provide recommendations for improving these institutions to address 21st century global water challenges more effectively.

  3. Statistical Attribution of Changes in Streamflow in the U.S. Midwest over the 20th and 21st Centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slater, L. J.; Villarini, G.

    2016-12-01

    Streamflows have increased notably across the Midwest over the past century. These changes have largely been attributed to the influence of upward trends in heavy precipitation and agricultural increases in row crop production. However, attempts to understand the specific causes of the changes in streamflow timing, magnitude, frequency, and seasonality have led to much debate in recent years, particularly regarding the influence of changing agricultural practices. Separating the different - climatic or land use/land cover - drivers of changing streamflow from a statistical perspective is not straightforward, and different methods have been implemented in the literature. Here, we develop statistical models in 476 U.S. Midwest river basins with long-term USGS discharge records to investigate the influence of the main drivers of changing streamflows: urbanization (using basin-averaged population per square kilometer), agricultural land cover (total corn and soybean harvested acreage), basin-averaged temperature, basin-averaged precipitation, and antecedent soil moisture (using precipitation from the month preceding each season as a proxy). We model the changes in the seasonal discharge quantiles from low to high flows as a function of these drivers (separately and combined), to evaluate which set of predictors is the best in each river basin. Results indicate that precipitation is indeed the most widespread driver in regions that are neither predominantly agricultural nor heavily urbanized. Elsewhere, we find strong regional patterns in terms of the best-fitting drivers, depending on climate, agricultural land cover and urbanization. Using these models, we then examine the sensitivity of discharge to different scenarios based on potential changes in each of the predictors. The projected changes have profound implications for water resources management across the Midwest.

  4. Future dryness in the southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R; Das, Tapash; Pierce, David W; Barnett, Tim P; Tyree, Mary; Gershunov, Alexander

    2010-12-14

    Recently the Southwest has experienced a spate of dryness, which presents a challenge to the sustainability of current water use by human and natural systems in the region. In the Colorado River Basin, the early 21st century drought has been the most extreme in over a century of Colorado River flows, and might occur in any given century with probability of only 60%. However, hydrological model runs from downscaled Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment climate change simulations suggest that the region is likely to become drier and experience more severe droughts than this. In the latter half of the 21st century the models produced considerably greater drought activity, particularly in the Colorado River Basin, as judged from soil moisture anomalies and other hydrological measures. As in the historical record, most of the simulated extreme droughts build up and persist over many years. Durations of depleted soil moisture over the historical record ranged from 4 to 10 years, but in the 21st century simulations, some of the dry events persisted for 12 years or more. Summers during the observed early 21st century drought were remarkably warm, a feature also evident in many simulated droughts of the 21st century. These severe future droughts are aggravated by enhanced, globally warmed temperatures that reduce spring snowpack and late spring and summer soil moisture. As the climate continues to warm and soil moisture deficits accumulate beyond historical levels, the model simulations suggest that sustaining water supplies in parts of the Southwest will be a challenge.

  5. Future dryness in the Southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, D.R.; Das, T.; Pierce, D.W.; Barnett, T.P.; Tyree, Mary; Gershunova, A.

    2010-01-01

    Recently the Southwest has experienced a spate of dryness, which presents a challenge to the sustainability of current water use by human and natural systems in the region. In the Colorado River Basin, the early 21st century drought has been the most extreme in over a century of Colorado River flows, and might occur in any given century with probability of only 60%. However, hydrological model runs from downscaled Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment climate change simulations suggest that the region is likely to become drier and experience more severe droughts than this. In the latter half of the 21st century the models produced considerably greater drought activity, particularly in the Colorado River Basin, as judged from soil moisture anomalies and other hydrological measures. As in the historical record, most of the simulated extreme droughts build up and persist over many years. Durations of depleted soil moisture over the historical record ranged from 4 to 10 years, but in the 21st century simulations, some of the dry events persisted for 12 years or more. Summers during the observed early 21st century drought were remarkably warm, a feature also evident in many simulated droughts of the 21st century. These severe future droughts are aggravated by enhanced, globally warmed temperatures that reduce spring snowpack and late spring and summer soil moisture. As the climate continues to warm and soil moisture deficits accumulate beyond historical levels, the model simulations suggest that sustaining water supplies in parts of the Southwest will be a challenge.

  6. China's water sustainability in the 21st century: a climate informed water risk assessment covering multi-sector water demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Chen

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available China is facing a water resources crisis with growing concerns as to the reliable supply of water for agricultural, industrial and domestic needs. High inter-annual rainfall variability and increasing consumptive use across the country exacerbates the situation further and is a constraint on future development. For water sustainability, it is necessary to examine the differences in water demand and supply and their spatio-temporal distribution in order to quantify the dimensions of the water risk. Here, a detailed quantitative assessment of water risk as measured by the distribution of cumulated deficits for China is presented. Considering daily precipitation and temperature variability over fifty years and the current water demands, risk measures are developed to inform county level water deficits that account for both within year and across year variations in climate. We choose political rather than watershed boundaries since economic activity and water use are organized by county and the political process is best informed through that unit. The risk measures highlight North China Plain counties as highly water stressed. Regions with high water stress are typically the regions with high inter-annual variability in rainfall and now have depleted groundwater aquifers. The stress components due to agricultural, industrial and domestic water demands are illustrated separately to assess the vulnerability of particular sectors within the country to provide a basis for targeted policy analysis for reducing water stress.

  7. Academic Research in the 21st Century: Maintaining Scientific Integrity in a Climate of Perverse Incentives and Hypercompetition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Marc A.; Roy, Siddhartha

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Over the last 50 years, we argue that incentives for academic scientists have become increasingly perverse in terms of competition for research funding, development of quantitative metrics to measure performance, and a changing business model for higher education itself. Furthermore, decreased discretionary funding at the federal and state level is creating a hypercompetitive environment between government agencies (e.g., EPA, NIH, CDC), for scientists in these agencies, and for academics seeking funding from all sources—the combination of perverse incentives and decreased funding increases pressures that can lead to unethical behavior. If a critical mass of scientists become untrustworthy, a tipping point is possible in which the scientific enterprise itself becomes inherently corrupt and public trust is lost, risking a new dark age with devastating consequences to humanity. Academia and federal agencies should better support science as a public good, and incentivize altruistic and ethical outcomes, while de-emphasizing output. PMID:28115824

  8. Robust evidence for forced changes in ENSO: from the mid-Holocene to the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grothe, P. R.; Cobb, K. M.; Liguori, G.; Di Lorenzo, E.; Capotondi, A.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, R. L.; Santos, G.; Southon, J. R.; Deocampo, D.; Lynch-Stieglitz, J.; Chen, T.; Sayani, H. R.; Townsend, K. J.; Toth, L. T.; Hagos, M. M.; O'Connor, G.; Thompson, D. M.; Lu, Y.

    2016-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the largest source of year-to-year global climate extremes, as evidenced during the record-breaking 2015/16 event. However, its sensitivity to external climate forcing, whether natural or anthropogenic, is difficult to assess with available records. Here, we extend the paleo-ENSO record through the generation of 16 new fossil coral d18O timeseries, averaging 15yrs each, for a total of 233 years of data that greatly augment the available paleo-ENSO archive. Combining this new dataset with published data, we quantify the differences in natural variations in ENSO from the early mid-Holocene to present. Monthly-resolved coral d18O records from the heart of the ENSO region, in the central tropical Pacific, track changes in sea surface temperature with high fidelity and have been used to quantify ENSO variability over the last 7,000 years (Cobb et al., 2013). In this study, we document a significant increase in recent ENSO variance as compared to the last 7,000 years, implying a role for greenhouse gases in driving an intensification of ENSO. We also find a significant reduction in ENSO variance of roughly -20% from 3,000-5,000yr before present, relative to the preceding and subsequent intervals of data. The causes of the late mid-Holocene reduction in ENSO variance may be linked to the influence of fall and/or spring equatorial insolation forcing, which perturbs the seasonal cycle at the critical growth and decay phases of ENSO extremes, respectively. In distinguishing between natural variability and forced changes in ENSO, we assess the significance of our results using a variety of different null hypotheses that includes multi-millennial simulations from both statistical and dynamical models of ENSO variability. Our findings imply that ENSO is sensitive to external forcing, both natural and anthropogenic, although the precise mechanisms for such responses require further study. Our results imply that anthropogenic

  9. Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high concentration pathway 21st century scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Pascale, Salvatore; Feng, Xue; Porporato, Amilcare; Hasson, Shabeh ul

    2014-01-01

    In this diagnostic study we analyze changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells by the end of the twenty-first century under the most extreme IPCC5 emission scenario (RCP8.5) as projected by twenty-four coupled climate models participating to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. We use estimates of the centroid of the monthly rainfall distribution as an index of the rainfall timing and a threshold-independent, information theory-based quantity such as relative entropy (RE) to quantify the concentration of annual rainfall and the number of dry months and to build a monsoon dimensionless seasonality index (DSI). The RE is projected to increase, with high inter-model agreement over Mediterranean-type regions (southern Europe, northern Africa and southern Australia) and areas of South and Central America, implying an increase in the number of dry days up to one month by the end of the twenty-first century. Positive RE changes are also projected over the monsoon regions of southern Africa and North America,...

  10. 21st Century Skills Map: The Arts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Colleen; Ebert, Christie M. Lynch; McGreevy-Nichols, Susan; Quinn, Betsy; Sabol, F. Robert; Schmid, Dale; Shauck, R. Barry; Shuler, Scott C.

    2010-01-01

    This 21st Century Skills Map is the result of hundreds of hours of research, development and feedback from educators and business leaders across the nation. The Partnership for 21st Century Skills has issued this map for the core subject of the Arts.

  11. Comparative endocrinology in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denver, R.J.; Hopkins, P.M.; McCormick, S.D.; Propper, C.R.; Riddiford, L.; Sower, S.A.; Wingfield, J.C.

    2009-01-01

    responses to the environment. A major challenge for life scientists in the 21st century is to understand how a changing environment impacts all life on earth. A full understanding of the capabilities of organisms to respond to environmental variation, and the resilience of organisms challenged by environmental changes and extremes, is necessary for understanding the impact of pollution and climatic change on the viability of populations. Comparative endocrinologists have a key role to play in these efforts.

  12. Exploring the Perceptions of Wits Academic Women About Women Empowerment and the Changing Roles of Women in 21st-Century South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evelyn Muberekwa

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Issues of women’s empowerment and gender inequality have been of paramount importance, particularly in the two decades since the Fourth World Conference on Women, Beijing, 1995. At that conference, the campaign for women’s empowerment was initiated to implement laws promoting gender equality. This research explored the perceptions of nine academic women at the University of the Witwatersrand with regard to women’s empowerment and the changing roles of women in a South African context in the 21st century. The research adopted a qualitative research methodology, and purposive sampling was utilized to select the study population. Data were collected in the form of semistructured interviews of approximately 30 to 60 min in duration, and thematic content analysis was applied to analyze the data. The data collected indicated that women in academia face challenges and experiences like other women in the workforce. These challenges and experiences are a result of the patriarchal nature of the workplace environment and the slow transformation at the university. It is also interesting to note that the gender roles of women in academia in their daily activities, married or single, are aggravated by the patriarchal nature of the broader society in which these women live.

  13. Effective Leadership in the 21st Century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Jacqueline

    2015-01-01

    Leaders know how to achieve goals and inspire people along the way. While the terms and definitions may change with the times, it is important to understand the skills and abilities needed to lead in the 21st century. Most effective leaders have one element in common, and that is they are able to keep their teams engaged. If team members are not engaged, they may very well leave the organization. With four generations in the workplace, leaders must adapt and modify their leadership style in order to maintain employee engagement. The ability to lead effectively is based on a number of skills, including communication, motivation, vision, modeling, demonstrating empathy, confidence, persistence, and integrity.

  14. A Case Study of Liberal Arts Colleges in the 21st Century: Understanding Organizational Change and Evolution in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Vicki L.; Baldwin, Roger G.

    2015-01-01

    We draw upon the evolutionary model of change in order to examine the organizational transformation of three liberal arts colleges (Albion College, Allegheny College, Kenyon College). Relying on our prior research (Baker, Baldwin, & Makker, 2012), we seek to continue our exploration and understanding of the evolution occurring in the important…

  15. School Library Media Centers in the 21st Century: Changes and Challenges. Greenwood Professional Guides in School Librarianship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craver, Kathleen W.

    School media centers are at a critical juncture. Over the next decade, schools will undergo fundamental technical, economic, societal, instructional and administrative changes. Current uses of computers in education include drill and practice, word processing, simulation exercises, database management, and computer-based graphics. When the use of…

  16. The effects of changing winds and temperatures on the oceanography of the Ross Sea in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Walker O.; Dinniman, Michael S.; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Klinck, John M.

    2014-03-01

    The Ross Sea is critically important in regulating Antarctic sea ice and is biologically productive, which makes changes in the region's physical environment of global concern. We examined the effects of projected changes in atmospheric temperatures and winds on aspects of the ocean circulation likely important to primary production using a high-resolution sea ice-ocean-ice shelf model of the Ross Sea. The modeled summer sea-ice concentrations decreased by 56% by 2050 and 78% by 2100. The duration of shallow mixed layers over the continental shelf increased by 8.5 and 19.2 days in 2050 and 2100, and the mean summer mixed layer depths decreased by 12 and 44%. These results suggest that the annual phytoplankton production in the future will increase and become more diatomaceous. Other components of the Ross Sea food web will likely be severely disrupted, creating significant but unpredictable impacts on the ocean's most pristine ecosystem.

  17. Child health 2000: new pediatrics in the changing environment of children's needs in the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haggerty, R J

    1995-10-01

    Pediatric practice in the next millennium will require greater knowledge of new morbidities, such as acquired immunodeficiency syndrome and social and behavioral disorders, reemergent old disorders, such as tuberculosis, and disorders rarely seen of late in the United States but now being brought here by recent immigrants, such as malaria and other parasitic diseases. Diversity in ethnic and cultural backgrounds and beliefs will continue to increase, and it will need to be understood to prevent and treat diseases of children effectively. Although the current antagonism toward immigrants may lead to a decrease in this particular source of diversity, changes in family structure--such as divorce, gay and lesbian couples as parents, and corporate pressure on families--will continue, requiring pediatricians to understand and to accept this diversity if they are to be the health care providers of children. The increased isolation of individuals from society and separation from families of origin will require pediatricians to be more active in communities and schools and to participate with other disciplines and social support groups. At the same time, the advancement of science and technology will continue to drive what the pediatrician does. Increased survival of children who previously had fatal illnesses will mean more emphasis on care of children who have chronic illnesses. Pediatricians will need to be partners with others in the exciting new fields of risk assessment and prevention of psychosocial disorders.

  18. Sustainable Corporate Social Responsibility - An Alternative for a Paradigm Change of Business in the 21St Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hrdinová, Gabriela; Sakál, Peter

    2012-12-01

    The critical system analysis of the current status of all areas of human activity on the planet Earth (in Europe and the Slovak Republic) convinces us, that this development is unsustainable. Many prominent personalities of scientific, cultural, social and political life stated that our planet Earth and mankind with it, and all that man has created during its existence is only one step finds itself on the brink of disaster and it will turn against man. Many theoretical concepts, based on the historical development and experience notes that this status is natural and inevitable. However, we hold a different opinion. If the man is team, that is declared, it must show (now at the turning point) themselves and future generations, that it thinks with its existence on planet Earth seriously and responsibly. Given by the current global crisis and also our belief that the fundamental problem of humanity is unfair creation and distribution of wealth on planet Earth, we maintain opinion for changing the paradigm of thinking in this area. As the only alternative for solving this problem we see in the application of the concept of sustainable corporate social responsibility. The article presents our idea.

  19. Science diplomacy in the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedoroff, Nina V

    2009-01-01

    Science diplomacy is the use of scientific collaborations among nations to address the common problems facing 21(st) century humanity and to build constructive international partnerships. There are many ways that scientists can contribute to this process.

  20. School Business Management in the 21st Century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Association of School Business Officials International, Reston, VA.

    As society's fundamental characteristics change, schools and school leaders must be prepared to modify the educational enterprise to meet the new and unique needs of adults and youngsters in the 21st century. To anticipate and control change, the school business manager must be able to project future trends, issues, and challenges. In this volume,…

  1. Global drought in the 20th and 21st centuries : analysis of retrospective simulations and future projections of soil moisture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sheffield, J.

    2008-01-01

    We describe the analysis of global and regional drought over the second half of the 20th century from a retrospective model simulation of the terrestrial water cycle, and projected 21st century changes using multi-scenario data from multiple climate models. A global meteorological forcing dataset is

  2. Global drought in the 20th and 21st centuries : analysis of retrospective simulations and future projections of soil moisture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sheffield, J.

    2008-01-01

    We describe the analysis of global and regional drought over the second half of the 20th century from a retrospective model simulation of the terrestrial water cycle, and projected 21st century changes using multi-scenario data from multiple climate models. A global meteorological forcing dataset is

  3. The role of methane in projections of 21st century stratospheric water vapour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revell, Laura E.; Stenke, Andrea; Rozanov, Eugene; Ball, William; Lossow, Stefan; Peter, Thomas

    2016-10-01

    Stratospheric water vapour (SWV) is an important component of the Earth's atmosphere as it affects both radiative balance and the chemistry of the atmosphere. Key processes driving changes in SWV include dehydration of air masses transiting the cold-point tropopause (CPT) and methane oxidation. We use a chemistry-climate model to simulate changes in SWV through the 21st century following the four canonical representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Furthermore, we quantify the contribution that methane oxidation makes to SWV following each of the RCPs. Although the methane contribution to SWV maximizes in the upper stratosphere, modelled SWV trends are found to be driven predominantly by warming of the CPT rather than by increasing methane oxidation. SWV changes by -5 to 60 % (depending on the location in the atmosphere and emissions scenario) and increases in the lower stratosphere in all RCPs through the 21st century. Because the lower stratosphere is where water vapour radiative forcing maximizes, SWV's influence on surface climate is also expected to increase through the 21st century.

  4. Higher Education Administration and Globalization in the 21st Century in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jabbarifar, Taghi

    2008-01-01

    This article deals with the changing scenario and management responsibilities of higher education in the 21st century in India. Of course, for those looking for challenges of management in higher education as a field, the future is not going to be a disappointment. Maybe by the end of the first decade of the 21st century management of higher…

  5. 21st Century Water Conservation Principles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayanan, M.

    2013-12-01

    This is an encore presentation of what was presented at the 2012 AGU International Conference. It was entitled: 'The Importance of Water Conservation in the 21st Century.' The poster presentation, however, has been redesigned and reorganized with new, revised perspectives. The importance of water conservation principles has been emphasized. The population of United States has more than doubled over the past 50 years. The need for water however, has tripled. The EPA estimates that more than 36 states face water shortage during the forthcoming years. The EPA has prepared a plan for achieving environmental and energy performance. This will be coupled with leadership and accountability. Carbon neutrality is also of prime importance. The objective is to focus on six important, essential areas. 1. Efficient use of already available energy resources. 2. Intelligent water consumption and focusing on water conservation. 3. Expand the use of renewable energy resources. 4. Explore innovative transportation systems and methodologies. 5. Change building codes and promote high performance sustainable buildings. 6. Focus on developing creative environment management systems. Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide occur naturally in the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is also emitted to the atmosphere through a variety of natural processes and also some human activities. However, fluorinated gases are emitted to the atmosphere solely through human activities, because they are created by humans. It is very important to observe that water conservation is probably the most cost-effective way to reduce our demand for water. Furthermore, it is certainly environmentally justifiable. The Environmental Protection Agency has a plan called E2PLAN. It is EPA's plan for achieving energy and environmental performance, leadership, accountability, and carbon neutrality. In June 2011, the EPA published a comprehensive, multi-year planning document called Strategic Sustainability Performance Plan. The

  6. Materials for the 21st century

    CERN Document Server

    Segal, David

    2017-01-01

    The book is a general text that shows how materials can contribute to solving problems facing nations in the 21st century. It is illustrated with diverse applications and highlights the potential of existing materials for everyday life, healthcare and the economies of nations. There are 13 chapters and a glossary of 500 materials with their descriptions, historical development, their use or potential use and a range of references. Specific areas include synthetic polymers (e.g. nylon), natural polymers (e.g. proteins, cellulose) and the role of materials in the development of digital computers and in healthcare. Solid-state lighting, energy supplies in the 21st century, disruptive technologies and intellectual property, in particular patents, are discussed. The book concludes by asking how the 21st century will be characterised. Will it be the Silicon Age, Genomic Age or New Polymer Age, as examples?

  7. The 21st Century as Whose Century?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Scott

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Macro-analysis and East-West encounter are shown through consideration of objective yet subjective constructed concepts for the international system and international economy in the 21st century. Three paradigms are considered, namely the 21st century as the ‘Pacific Century’, as ‘China’s Century’ and as the ‘Asian Century’. Overlaps are shown between these three paradigms, as also developments in time, and gradually shift in geographical location. The ‘Pacific Century’, and its associated Rimspeak, was the paradigm emerging in the late 1970s, knitting together America’s West Coast and the Japanese economy. By the late 1980s this was already shifting to talk of the 21st century likely to be an ‘Asian Century’ model, mark-1, based on the Pacific Asia dynamism shown by the ‘Asian Tigers’ and Japan. However, the Asian financial crash of 1997-8, and the economic downturn in Japan, meant that such an ‘Asian Century’ seemed premature as the 21st century arrived. Instead, it was China’s economic growth that seemed most evident, and with it the concept of the 21st century as ‘China’s Century’. However, in turn that has already been modified during the first decade of the century by India’s arrival as a rapidly growing economy. Consequently the 21st century as ‘China’s Century’ and as ‘India’s Century’ has been combined into talk of an ‘Asian Century’, mark-2.

  8. Nursing theory: the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randell, B P

    1992-01-01

    On September 21, 1990, at the University of California, Los Angeles, Neuropsychiatric Institute and Hospital, six nurse theorists participated in a panel discussion on theory development for the 21st century. The theorists included Dorothy Johnson, Betty Neuman, Dorothea E. Orem, Rosemarie Rizzo Parse, Martha E. Rogers and Callista Roy. The panel provided the participants the opportunity to speculate on the course for future development of nursing knowledge. Three questions were posed to the panel relating to the development of their models, the direction nursing theory will take in the 21st century, and current research emerging from the extant theories. The panel also addressed questions from the audience.

  9. Statistics in the 21st century

    CERN Document Server

    Wells, Martin T; Wells, Martin T

    2001-01-01

    Exactly what is the state of the art in statistics as we move forward into the 21st century? What promises, what trends does its future hold? Through the reflections of 70 of the world's leading statistical methodologists, researchers, theorists, and practitioners, Statistics in the 21st Century answers those questions. Originally published in the Journal of the American Statistical Association, this collection of vignettes examines our statistical past, comments on our present, and speculates on our future. Although the coverage is broad and the topics diverse, it reveals the essential intell

  10. Reality Therapy for the 21st Century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wubbolding, Robert E.

    This book serves as a comprehensive and practical guide to reality therapy, and extends its principles and practices beyond the initial descriptions. A central theme of this edition is that reality therapy is a method inherently designed for the exigencies of the 21st century. It contains 22 types of self-evaluations counselors can use to shorten…

  11. Creating 21st Century Learning Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Phan P.; Locke, John; Nair, Prakash; Bunting, Andrew

    2005-01-01

    What is involved in creating learning environments for the 21st century? How can school facilities serve as tools for teaching and meet the needs of students in the future? What components are required to design effective schools, and how does architecture relate to the purposes of schooling? These are some of the questions addressed at the…

  12. Toward the 21st Century for Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osborn, Ruth H.

    1975-01-01

    The International Women's Year Conference decided that the key to the future for women throughout the world was continuing education enabling women to gain a sense of self realization, promote family life, increase options, and to contribute their talents to a better world in the 21st century. (Author/BP)

  13. The 21st Century Information Environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badger, Rod

    This paper on the 21st century information environment begins with a section that discusses the impact of e-commerce over the next ten years. The second section addresses government focus areas, including ensuring a telecommunications infrastructure, developing the IT (information technology) industry, promoting innovation and entrepreneurship,…

  14. Learning Analytics for 21st Century Competencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckingham Shum, Simon; Crick, Ruth Deakin

    2016-01-01

    Many educational institutions are shifting their teaching and learning towards equipping students with knowledge, skills, and dispositions that prepare them for lifelong learning, in a complex and uncertain world. These have been termed "21st century competencies." Learning analytics (LA) approaches in general offer different kinds of…

  15. Digital Humanities in the 21st Century

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brügger, Niels

    2016-01-01

    In this article it is argued that one of the major transformative factors of the humanities at the beginning of the 21st century is the shift from analogue to digital source material, and that this shift will affect the humanities in a variety of ways. But various kinds of digital material...

  16. How 21st century droughts affect food and environmental security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kogan, Felix

    The first 13th years of the 21st century has begun with a series of widespread, long and intensive droughts around the world. Extreme and severe-to-extreme intensity droughts covered 2-6% and 7-16% of the world land, respectively, affecting environment, economies and humans. These droughts reduced agricultural production, leading to food shortages, human health deterioration, poverty, regional disturbances, population migration and death. This presentation is a travelogue of the 21st century global and regional droughts during the warmest years of the past 100 years. These droughts were identified and monitored with the NOAA operational space technology, called Vegetation Health (VH), which has the longest period of observation and provide good data quality. The VH method was used for assessment of vegetation condition or health, including drought early detection and monitoring. The VH method is based on operational satellites data estimating both land surface greenness (NDVI) and thermal conditions. The 21st century droughts in the USA, Russia, Australia Argentina, Brazil, China, India and other principal grain producing countries were intensive, long, covered large areas and caused huge losses in agricultural production, which affected food and environmental security and led to food riots in some countries. This presentation investigate how droughts affect food and environmental security, if they can be detected earlier, how to monitor their area, intensity, duration and impacts and also their dynamics during the climate warming era with satellite-based vegetation health technology.

  17. Genome Evolution in the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapiro, James

    2006-03-01

    Assume no previous theories about genetics and evolution. What conclusions would we draw from molecular data (e.g. genome sequences)? We start from basic principles of cellular information processing: cells behave cognitively using signal transduction networks; signal transduction involves weak noncovalent interactions; allosteric properties of biomolecules; multivalent storage of information in DNA sequences and nucleoprotein complexes; inertness of naked DNA. Genome informatics thus requires formation of nucleoprotein complexes. Complex formation requires generic repeated signals in the DNA; repetition also permits cooperativity to stabilize weak interactions. DNA is a functional structural component of nucleoprotein complexes, not a passive data tape. Specificity in DNA nucleoprotein complex formation involves combining multiple generic signals and/or sequence recognition by small RNAs. Novel combinations of generic signals and coding sequences arise in genomes by iteration and rearrangement. Cells possess natural genetic engineering functions that actively restructure DNA molecules. These internal DNA remodeling functions act cognitively in response to internal and external inputs. They operate non-randomly with respect to (1) the types of new structures produced and (2) the regions of the genome modified. Whole genome sequence data increasingly documents the historical role of natural genetic engineering in evolutionary changes. Basic principles of cellular molecular biology and DNA function lead to a complex interactive systems view of genome organization. This view incorporates different DNA components found in sequenced genomes. Regulated cellular natural genetic engineering functions permit genomes to serve as Read-Write information storage systems, not just Read-Only memories subject to accidental change. These 21st Century conclusions are most compatible with a systems engineering view of the evolutionary process.

  18. Arctic Ocean Pathways in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aksenov, Yevgeny; van Gennip, Simon J.; Kelly, Stephen J.; Popova, Ekaterina E.; Yool, Andrew

    2017-04-01

    In the last three decades, changes in the Arctic environment have been occurring at an increasing rate. The opening up of large areas of previously sea ice-covered ocean affects the marine environment with potential impacts on Arctic ecosystems, including through changes in Arctic access, industries and societies. Changes to sea ice and surface winds result in large-scale shifts in ocean circulation and oceanic pathways. This study presents a high-resolution analysis of the projected ocean circulation and pathways of the Arctic water masses across the 21st century. The analysis is based on an eddy-permitting high-resolution global simulation of the ocean general circulation model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) at the 1/4-degree horizontal resolution. The atmospheric forcing is from HadGEM2-ES model output from IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5) simulations performed for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5), and follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. During the 21st century the AO experiences a significant warming, with sea surface temperature increased by in excess of 4 deg. C. Annual mean Arctic sea ice thickness drops to less than 0.5m, and the Arctic Ocean is ice-free in summer from the mid-century. We use an off-line tracer technique to investigate Arctic pathways of the Atlantic and Pacific waters (AW and PW respectively) under this future climate. The AW tracers have been released in the eastern Fram Strait and in the western Barents Sea, whereas the PW tracer has been seeded in the Bering Strait. In the second half of the century the upper 1000 m ocean circulation shows a reduction in the eastward AW flow along the continental slopes towards the Makarov and Canada basins and a deviation of the PW flow away from the Beaufort Sea towards the Siberian coast. Strengthening of Arctic boundary current and intensification of the cyclonic gyre in the Nansen basin of the Arctic Ocean is accompanied by

  19. Periopardy: the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fawcett, Debra L; Dodd, Chérie

    2009-03-01

    One of the biggest challenges that educators face is capturing the interest of students. The use of games in the classroom can be an effective tool to teach, reinforce learning, and provide healthy competition for participants. Periopardy is an educational game based on the popular television game show Jeopardy. The five categories featured in the game can be changed to suit the needs of the class, to include topics such as perioperative nursing, infection control, or women's health. This article provides an overview of how to develop the categories, the rules for playing the game, and web site addresses where readers can download a template of the game board for their own use.

  20. Studies of 21st-Century Precipitation Trends Over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druyan, Leonard M.

    2010-01-01

    West Africa includes a semi-arid zone between the Sahara Desert and the humid Gulf of Guinea coast, approximately between 10 N and 20 N, which is irrigated by summer monsoon rains. This article refers to the region as the Sahel. Rain-fed agriculture is the primary sustenance for Sahel populations, and severe droughts (in the 1970s and 1980s), therefore, have devastating negative societal impacts. The future frequency of Sahel droughts and the evolution of its hydrological balance are therefore of great interest. The article reviews 10 recent research studies that attempt to discover how climate changes will affect the hydrology of the Sahel throughout the 21st century. All 10 studies rely on atmosphere ocean global climate model (AOGCM) simulations based on a range of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Many of the simulations are contained in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change archives for Assessment Reports #3 and #4. Two of the studies use AOGCM data to drive regional climate models. Seven studies make projections for the first half of the 21st century and eight studies make projections for the second half. Some studies make projections of wetter conditions and some predict more frequent droughts, and each describes the atmospheric processes associated with its prediction. Only one study projects more frequent droughts before 2050, and that is only for continent-wide degradation in vegetation cover. The challenge to correctly simulate Sahel rainfall decadal trends is particularly daunting because multiple physical mechanisms compete to drive the trend upwards or downwards. A variety of model deficiencies, regarding the simulation of one or more of these physical processes, taints models climate change projections. Consequently, no consensus emerges regarding the impact of anticipated greenhouse gas forcing on the hydrology of the Sahel in the second half of the 21st century.

  1. Studies of 21st-Century Precipitation Trends Over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druyan, Leonard M.

    2010-01-01

    West Africa includes a semi-arid zone between the Sahara Desert and the humid Gulf of Guinea coast, approximately between 10 N and 20 N, which is irrigated by summer monsoon rains. This article refers to the region as the Sahel. Rain-fed agriculture is the primary sustenance for Sahel populations, and severe droughts (in the 1970s and 1980s), therefore, have devastating negative societal impacts. The future frequency of Sahel droughts and the evolution of its hydrological balance are therefore of great interest. The article reviews 10 recent research studies that attempt to discover how climate changes will affect the hydrology of the Sahel throughout the 21st century. All 10 studies rely on atmosphere ocean global climate model (AOGCM) simulations based on a range of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Many of the simulations are contained in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change archives for Assessment Reports #3 and #4. Two of the studies use AOGCM data to drive regional climate models. Seven studies make projections for the first half of the 21st century and eight studies make projections for the second half. Some studies make projections of wetter conditions and some predict more frequent droughts, and each describes the atmospheric processes associated with its prediction. Only one study projects more frequent droughts before 2050, and that is only for continent-wide degradation in vegetation cover. The challenge to correctly simulate Sahel rainfall decadal trends is particularly daunting because multiple physical mechanisms compete to drive the trend upwards or downwards. A variety of model deficiencies, regarding the simulation of one or more of these physical processes, taints models climate change projections. Consequently, no consensus emerges regarding the impact of anticipated greenhouse gas forcing on the hydrology of the Sahel in the second half of the 21st century.

  2. Epidemiologic trends of leprosy for the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schreuder, Pieter A M; Noto, Salvatore; Richardus, Jan Hendrik

    2016-01-01

    Major gaps still exist in the knowledge about leprosy, particularly with regard to how it spreads. Leprosy epidemiology remains complicated due to the specific characteristics of Mycobacterium leprae. To describe epidemiologic trends for the 21st century, the first part of this paper gives an overview of the epidemiology of leprosy, followed by past trends and the present situation of new-case detection as a proxy of the incidence. The third part, regarding predicted epidemiologic trends for the 21st century, elaborates on the main topic of this paper. With limited diagnostic tools to detect infection with M leprae, other methods are necessary to estimate trends in incidence and transmission. A computer program has been developed for modeling the transmission and control of leprosy (SIMLEP). The effect of failure to sustain early case detection beyond 2005 on leprosy incidence and case detection is shown. Important unanswered questions are whether the incubation period is contagious and how rapid close contacts of leprosy patients are infected. As long as such key questions remain unanswered, it will be difficult to estimate the impact of control strategies on the transmission of M leprae on resulting disease incidence. In the meantime we can expect that the global new-case detection trends will stay more or less stable or only decrease slightly for many years to come. There is a need of new preventive interventions to change this situation and reduce the incidence of leprosy in the 21st century.

  3. Life Sciences in the 21 st Century

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zou Chenglu (C. L. Tsou)

    2001-01-01

    This article presents a retrospective of the achievements of life sciences in the 20th century and a prospective in the 21 st century.primarily,because of the emergence of molecular biology in the 20th cetury,life sciences have grown up from a descriptive discipline to an exact science.Biology in the 21st century features a unification between analysis and integration,i.e.the unification of analysis and func-tional research.More and more interdisciplinary integration will be based on works of penetrating analyses.Secondly.the deeper understanding of all living phenomena will lead to a unified connition of the essence of life so that general biology in the genuine sese of the term will come into being.finally,basic research on the life sciences will produce an unprecedented influence on all aspects of human life.

  4. Selective Reproduction in the 21st Century

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    In the 21st century, human reproduction increasingly involves decisions about which gametes to fertilize, which embryos to implant, or which fetuses to abort. The term ‘selective reproduction’ refers to these increasingly widespread efforts to bring specific kinds of children into being....... To this end, selective reproductive technologies (SRTs) have been developed and routinized over the last few decades. In today’s world, selective reproduction is taking place on a historically unprecedented scale; through sex-selective abortions following ultrasound scans, termination of pregnancies following...... detection of fetal anomalies during prenatal screening and testing programs, the development of preimplantation genetic diagnosis techniques as well as the screening of potential gamete donors by egg agencies and sperm banks. Selective Reproduction in the 21st Century provides unique ethnographic insights...

  5. Detergents of the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ho Tan Tai Louis

    2001-03-01

    Full Text Available Detergents of the 21st century will depend on evolutions in household appliances, in substrates and in consumer needs. In addition, the environmental constraints, which become more and more stringent, will also play an important role, particularly in the formulations. Surfactants, which constitute one of the main raw materials in detergents, will have to be more environmentally friendly with increasing criteria of biodegradability and renewable materials. Builders (phosphates or zeolithes, heavy metal complexants (EDTA and bleaching agents (combination perborate/TAED are also expected to be replaced by biodegradable compounds, with better performances and lower costs. The real raw materials of the detergents of the 21st century will probably be enzymes (oxidase, hydrolase, peroxidase which present several advantages. At the same time, efforts will be made on biodegradable packaging through the use of micro-organisms able to degrade polymers. Finally, in terms of product forms, the concept of concentration might come back through the use of tablets.

  6. Future trends and geographical distribution of potential evapotranspiration in Germany throughout the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rauch, E.; Panferov, O.; Doering, C.

    2009-04-01

    Recent climate projections for the 21st century (e.g. ECHAM5-MPIOM) show strong changes of the global climate. Forests in Germany are exposed to these changes, which include increase of temperature, changes of seasonal precipitation patterns and possibly the increase of frequency of extreme meteorological events as droughts, rain and wind storms. Present study focuses on the characterization of possible future developments of potential evapotranspiration (PET) throughout the 21st Century under conditions of SRES scenarios A1B and B1. The FAO-56-Penman-Monteith (ALLEN et al., 1998) was implemented. Climate scenario data were downscaled by the regional climate model Climate Local Model (CLM) to the spatial resolution of about 0.2°*0.2° and used to calculate PET for Germany. The spatial and temporal variability of PET in Germany during the 21st century is examined and causes of variation discussed. Areas within Germany with particularly stronger - hot spots - and weaker - cold spots - changes in PET are identified and analyzed in detail. Two hot spots, the Saarland and the Black Forest, and a cold spot, East Brandenburg, were identified. The deviating development of the hot/cold spots are traced back to the stronger or weaker development of the energy balance, which is higher in the hot spots and lower in the cold spot. The spatially differential development of PET could be traced back to the regionally different development of the meteorological variables. The contributions of various meteorological variables to the temporal trend detected in the PET are then determined. Clear trends in the annual sums or means could be described for several component variables of PET. Some variables do not show any noteworthy trend in annual mean but changes in their seasonal variability. The annual PET sums do not increase so much as expected when seen in relation to the temperature increase predicted for the 21st century, particularly in SRES A1B. PET in B1 does not evolve as

  7. The Worforce for the 21st Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry O'Lawrence

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim/Purpose: In today’s changing economy, economic growth depends on career and technical programs for skill training. Background: This study discusses the key area in promoting individual learning and skill training and discusses the importance of career education and training as a way of promoting economic growth. Methodology\t: This study uses a qualitative study approach to investigate and report on the status and influence of Workforce Education and Development and its economic importance. Contribution: This report contributes to the knowledge base common to all work settings that can solve many human performance problems in the workplace. Findings: This study also justifies and validates the ideas on the importance of workforce education and development in the 21st century as a way of developing economic growth and providing learning to make individuals competitive in the global economy. Recommendations for Practitioners\t: For practitioners, this study suggests that we must always have discussions of what leads to career success and understanding that there is not enough high-skill/high-wage employment to go around. Therefore, developing these skills requires a decision about a career or related group of jobs to prepare to compete for them; we have to provide training needed in order to be competitive in global economy. Recommendation for Researchers: Researchers have to develop strategies to promote career direction with willingness to evaluate the level of academic interest, level of career focus and readiness for life away from home (attitudes, skills and knowledge of self. Impact on Society: Institutions must regularly evaluate curriculum to reflect the rapid technological changes and the globalization of world markets that reflect their mission and develop students’ mindset to always think big and think outside the box in order to be competitive in the global market. Change is external, transition is internal. It is important

  8. The globalization and environmental sustainability of LNG: Is LNG a fuel for the 21st century?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sakmar, Susan

    2010-09-15

    As the world enters the 21st Century, policy makers around the world are grappling with issues related to energy security, energy poverty, global climate change, and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while meeting an expected increase in demand for all energy sources. As a clean burning fuel, many policy leaders have suggested that LNG can play an important role as the world struggles to develop a more environmental sustainable energy future. Others claim that the safety and environmental impact of LNG, including life-cycle emissions, may nullify any clean burning benefit LNG might otherwise provide.

  9. The sea level fingerprint of 21st century ice mass fluxes

    OpenAIRE

    Bamber, J.; Riva, R.

    2010-01-01

    The sea level contribution from glacial sources has been accelerating during the 21st century (Meier et al., 2007; Velicogna, 2009). This contribution is not distributed uniformly across the world's oceans due to both oceanographic and gravitational effects. We compute the sea level signature of 21st century ice mass fluxes due to changes in the gravity field, Earth's rotation and related effects. Mass loss from Greenland results in a relative sea level (RSL) reduction for much of North Weste...

  10. Climate change and the Great Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeanne C. Chambers

    2008-01-01

    Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on the Great Basin by the mid-21st century. The following provides an overview of past and projected climate change for the globe and for the region.

  11. Functional response of U.S. grasslands to the early 21st-century drought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, M Susan; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo E; Huete, Alfredo; McClaran, Mitchel P; Zhang, Yongguang; Hamerlynck, Erik P; Augustine, David J; Gunter, Stacey A; Kitchen, Stanley G; Peters, Debra P C; Starks, Patrick J; Hernandez, Mariano

    2014-08-01

    Grasslands across the United States play a key role in regional livelihood and national food security. Yet, it is still unclear how this important resource will respond to the prolonged warm droughts and more intense rainfall events predicted with climate change. The early 21st-century drought in the southwestern United States resulted in hydroclimatic conditions that are similar to those expected with future climate change. We investigated the impact of the early 21st-century drought on aboveground net primary production (ANPP) of six desert and plains grasslands dominated by C4 (warm season) grasses in terms of significant deviations between observed and expected ANPP. In desert grasslands, drought-induced grass mortality led to shifts in the functional response to annual total precipitation (P(T)), and in some cases, new species assemblages occurred that included invasive species. In contrast, the ANPP in plains grasslands exhibited a strong linear function of the current-year P(T) and the previous-year ANPP, despite prolonged warm drought. We used these results to disentangle the impacts of interannual total precipitation, intra-annual precipitation patterns, and grassland abundance on ANPP, and thus generalize the functional response of C4 grasslands to predicted climate change. This will allow managers to plan for predictable shifts in resources associated with climate change related to fire risk, loss of forage, and ecosystem services.

  12. 21st Century South African Science Fiction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CARAIVAN LUIZA

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses some aspects of South African science fiction, starting with its beginnings in the 1920s and focusing on some 21st century writings. Thus Lauren Beukes’ novels Moxyland (2008 and Zoo City (2010 are taken into consideration in order to present new trends in South African literature and the way science fiction has been marked by Apartheid. The second South African science fiction writer whose writings are examined is Henrietta Rose-Innes (with her novel Nineveh, published in 2011 as this consolidates women's presence in the SF world.

  13. Health Physics in the 21st Century

    CERN Document Server

    Bevelacqua, Joseph John

    2008-01-01

    Adopting a proactive approach and focusing on emerging radiation-generating technologies, Health Physics in the 21st Century meets the growing need for a presentation of the relevant radiological characteristics and hazards. As such, this monograph discusses those technologies that will affect the health physics and radiation protection profession over the decades to come. After an introductory overview, the second part of this book looks at fission and fusion energy, followed by a section devoted to accelerators, while the final main section deals with radiation on manned space missions.

  14. Knowledge society in 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Urbanová

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is focused on the increasing need of education in 21st century and on some problems which emerged in this context – the economists prefer to emphasize the development and growth, profit and effectiveness, and they can overlook general, ethical, and essential problems and needs of the contemporary world. These problems are not resolved by simple algometrical approaches, but they require multi-disciplined paradigms, which can provide social sciences.Especially in the 21st century we need wide-ranging critical thinking as a basis of responsible ethical behaviour. However in the current educational environment in the tertiary educational system we can observe over-emphasizing of utilitarian requirements. We produce professionals who are expected to be able to find quick, effective but also far-seeing solutions of any given problem, which is in obvious contradiction. This article discussed three conceptions of a human with the emphasis on the concept of “homo socio-oeconomicus”. This concept enables to see the world in wide context and develops necessary critical thinking, which is also economically more advantageous from the long-term point of view. That is why education in sociological, psychological, philosophical, political and other social sciences should not be considered by economists as something useless without any economic value, but as something that can help them to understand themselves, their environment and the consequences of their decisions. This is the core of this contribution.

  15. Nursing heroism in the 21st Century'

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darbyshire Philip

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Vivian Bullwinkel Oration honours the life and work of an extraordinary nurse. Given her story and that of her World War II colleagues, the topic of nursing heroism in the 21st century could not be more germane. Discussion Is heroism a legitimate part of nursing, or are nurses simply 'just doing their job' even when facing extreme personal danger? In this paper I explore the place and relevance of heroism in contemporary nursing. I propose that nursing heroism deserves a broader appreciation and that within the term lie many hidden, 'unsung' or 'unrecorded' heroisms. I also challenge the critiques of heroism that would condemn it as part of a 'militarisation' of nursing. Finally, I argue that nursing needs to be more open in celebrating our heroes and the transformative power of nursing achievements. Summary The language of heroism may sound quaint by 21st Century standards but nursing heroism is alive and well in the best of our contemporary nursing ethos and practice.

  16. Federal laboratories for the 21st century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gover, J. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Huray, P.G. [Univ. of South Carolina, Columbia, SC (United States)

    1998-04-01

    Federal laboratories have successfully filled many roles for the public; however, as the 21st Century nears it is time to rethink and reevaluate how Federal laboratories can better support the public and identify new roles for this class of publicly-owned institutions. The productivity of the Federal laboratory system can be increased by making use of public outcome metrics, by benchmarking laboratories, by deploying innovative new governance models, by partnerships of Federal laboratories with universities and companies, and by accelerating the transition of federal laboratories and the agencies that own them into learning organizations. The authors must learn how government-owned laboratories in other countries serve their public. Taiwan`s government laboratory, Industrial Technology Research Institute, has been particularly successful in promoting economic growth. It is time to stop operating Federal laboratories as monopoly institutions; therefore, competition between Federal laboratories must be promoted. Additionally, Federal laboratories capable of addressing emerging 21st century public problems must be identified and given the challenge of serving the public in innovative new ways. Increased investment in case studies of particular programs at Federal laboratories and research on the public utility of a system of Federal laboratories could lead to increased productivity of laboratories. Elimination of risk-averse Federal laboratory and agency bureaucracies would also have dramatic impact on the productivity of the Federal laboratory system. Appropriately used, the US Federal laboratory system offers the US an innovative advantage over other nations.

  17. Estimation of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance during 20th and 21st centuries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Fettweis

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Results from a regional climate simulation (1970–2006 over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS reveals that more than 97% of the interannual variability of the modelled Surface Mass Balance (SMB can be explained by the GrIS summer temperature anomaly and the GrIS annual precipitation anomaly. This multiple regression is then used to empirically estimate the GrIS SMB since 1900 from climatological time series. The projected SMB changes in the 21st century are investigated with the set of simulations performed with atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4. These estimates show that the high surface mass loss rates of recent years are not unprecedented in the GrIS history of the last hundred years. The minimum SMB rate seems to have occurred earlier in the 1930s. The AOGCMs project that the SMB rate of the 1930s would be common at the end of 2100. The temperature would be higher than in the 1930s but the increase of accumulation in the 21st century would partly offset the acceleration of surface melt due to the temperature increase. However, these assumptions are based on an empirical multiple regression only validated for recent/current climatic conditions, and the accuracy and time homogeneity of the data sets and AOGCM results used in these estimations constitute a large uncertainty.

  18. Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, P. J.; Archibald, A. T.; Bowman, K. W.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Naik, V.; Stevenson, D. S.; Tilmes, S.; Voulgarakis, A.; Wild, O.; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Cionni, I.; Collins, W. J.; Dalsøren, S. B.; Doherty, R. M.; Eyring, V.; Faluvegi, G.; Horowitz, L. W.; Josse, B.; Lee, Y. H.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Nagashima, T.; Plummer, D. A.; Righi, M.; Rumbold, S. T.; Skeie, R. B.; Shindell, D. T.; Strode, S. A.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

    2013-02-01

    Present day tropospheric ozone and its changes between 1850 and 2100 are considered, analysing 15 global models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The ensemble mean compares well against present day observations. The seasonal cycle correlates well, except for some locations in the tropical upper troposphere. Most (75 %) of the models are encompassed with a range of global mean tropospheric ozone column estimates from satellite data, but there is a suggestion of a high bias in the Northern Hemisphere and a low bias in the Southern Hemisphere, which could indicate deficiencies with the ozone precursor emissions. Compared to the present day ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden of 337 ± 23 Tg, the ensemble mean burden for 1850 time slice is ~30% lower. Future changes were modelled using emissions and climate projections from four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Compared to 2000, the relative changes in the ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden in 2030 (2100) for the different RCPs are: -4% (-16%) for RCP2.6, 2% (-7%) for RCP4.5, 1% (-9%) for RCP6.0, and 7% (18%) for RCP8.5. Model agreement on the magnitude of the change is greatest for larger changes. Reductions in most precursor emissions are common across the RCPs and drive ozone decreases in all but RCP8.5, where doubled methane and a 40-150% greater stratospheric influx (estimated from a subset of models) increase ozone. While models with a high ozone burden for the present day also have high ozone burdens for the other time slices, no model consistently predicts large or small ozone changes; i.e. the magnitudes of the burdens and burden changes do not appear to be related simply, and the models are sensitive to emissions and climate changes in different ways. Spatial patterns of ozone changes are well correlated across most models, but are notably different for models without time evolving stratospheric ozone concentrations. A

  19. Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Young

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Present day tropospheric ozone and its changes between 1850 and 2100 are considered, analysing 15 global models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP. The ensemble mean compares well against present day observations. The seasonal cycle correlates well, except for some locations in the tropical upper troposphere. Most (75 % of the models are encompassed with a range of global mean tropospheric ozone column estimates from satellite data, but there is a suggestion of a high bias in the Northern Hemisphere and a low bias in the Southern Hemisphere, which could indicate deficiencies with the ozone precursor emissions. Compared to the present day ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden of 337 ± 23 Tg, the ensemble mean burden for 1850 time slice is ~30% lower. Future changes were modelled using emissions and climate projections from four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs. Compared to 2000, the relative changes in the ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden in 2030 (2100 for the different RCPs are: −4% (−16% for RCP2.6, 2% (−7% for RCP4.5, 1% (−9% for RCP6.0, and 7% (18% for RCP8.5. Model agreement on the magnitude of the change is greatest for larger changes. Reductions in most precursor emissions are common across the RCPs and drive ozone decreases in all but RCP8.5, where doubled methane and a 40–150% greater stratospheric influx (estimated from a subset of models increase ozone. While models with a high ozone burden for the present day also have high ozone burdens for the other time slices, no model consistently predicts large or small ozone changes; i.e. the magnitudes of the burdens and burden changes do not appear to be related simply, and the models are sensitive to emissions and climate changes in different ways. Spatial patterns of ozone changes are well correlated across most models, but are notably different for models without time evolving stratospheric ozone

  20. Pre-industrial to End 21st Century Projections of Tropospheric Ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, P. J.; Archibald, A. T.; Bowman, K. W.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Naik, V.; Stevenson, D. S.; Tilmes, S.; Voulgarakis, A.; Wild, O.; Bergmann, D.; hide

    2013-01-01

    Present day tropospheric ozone and its changes between 1850 and 2100 are considered, analysing 15 global models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The ensemble mean compares well against present day observations. The seasonal cycle correlates well, except for some locations in the tropical upper troposphere. Most (75 %) of the models are encompassed with a range of global mean tropospheric ozone column estimates from satellite data, but there is a suggestion of a high bias in the Northern Hemisphere and a low bias in the Southern Hemisphere, which could indicate deficiencies with the ozone precursor emissions. Compared to the present day ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden of 337+/-23 Tg, the ensemble mean burden for 1850 time slice is approx. 30% lower. Future changes were modelled using emissions and climate projections from four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Compared to 2000, the relative changes in the ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden in 2030 (2100) for the different RCPs are: -4% (-16 %) for RCP2.6, 2% (-7%) for RCP4.5, 1% (-9%) for RCP6.0, and 7% (18 %) for RCP8.5. Model agreement on the magnitude of the change is greatest for larger changes. Reductions in most precursor emissions are common across the RCPs and drive ozone decreases in all but RCP8.5, where doubled methane and a 40-150% greater stratospheric influx (estimated from a subset of models) increase ozone. While models with a high ozone burden for the present day also have high ozone burdens for the other time slices, no model consistently predicts large or small ozone changes; i.e. the magnitudes of the burdens and burden changes do not appear to be related simply, and the models are sensitive to emissions and climate changes in different ways. Spatial patterns of ozone changes are well correlated across most models, but are notably different for models without time evolving stratospheric ozone concentrations

  1. Young Adult Dystopias: Bildungsroman for the 21st Century

    OpenAIRE

    Ljiljana Gavrilović

    2016-01-01

    The paper examines young adult dystopian novels written in the first decade of the 21st century, as heirs to the tradition of the bildungsroman, and the great dystopias. The focus of this new genre has shifted from maintaining "the best of all worlds" – where the young person adjusts and fits into the existing world, to the shaping of the hero’s critical spirit which is supposed to result in the hero/heroine growing up, but also in changes in the world which they inhabit. Two other important ...

  2. After the book information services for the 21st century

    CERN Document Server

    Stachokas, George

    2014-01-01

    Libraries and librarians have been defined by the book throughout modern history. What happens when society increasingly lets print go in favour of storing, retrieving and manipulating electronic information? What happens after the book? After the Book explores how the academic library of the 21st Century is first and foremost a provider of electronic information services. Contemporary users expect today's library to provide information as quickly and efficiently as other online information resources. The book argues that librarians need to change what they know, how they work, and how they ar

  3. Hydroclimatic Extremes and Cholera Dynamics in the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A. S.; Islam, S.

    2012-12-01

    Cholera, an acute water-borne diarrheal illness, has reemerged as a significant health threat across much of the developing world. Despite major advances in the ecological and the microbiological understanding of the causative agent, V. cholerae, the role of the underlying climatic and environmental processes in propagating transmission is not adequately understood. Recent findings suggest a more prominent role of hydroclimatic extremes - droughts and floods - on the unique dual cholera peaks in the Bengal Delta region of South Asia, the native homeland of cholera. Increasing water scarcity and abundance, and coastal sea-level rise, influenced by changing climate patterns and large-scale climatic phenomena, is likely to adversely impact cholera transmission in South Asia. We focus on understanding how associated changes in macro-scale conditions in this region will impact micro-scale processes related to cholera in coming decades. We use the PRECIS Regional Climate Model over the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin region to simulate detailed high resolution projections of climate patterns for the 21st century. Precipitation outputs are analyzed for the 1980-2040 period to identify the trends and changes in hydroclimatic extremes and potential impacts on cholera dynamics over the next three decades (2010-2040), in relation to the cholera surveillance operations over the past three decades (1980-2010). We find that an increased number of extreme precipitation events with prolonged dry periods in the Ganges basin region will likely adversely affect dry season cholera outbreaks. Increased monsoon precipitation volumes in the Brahmaputra basin catchments are likely to cause record floods and subsequently trigger large epidemics in downstream areas. Our results provide new insight by identifying the changes in the two distinctly different, pre and post monsoon, cholera transmission mechanisms related to large-scale climatic controls that prevail in the region. A

  4. 21st Century jobs initiative - building the foundations for a 21st Century economy. Final main report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-11-01

    The 21st Century Jobs Initiative has been launched in the context of new realities in Washington, D.C., rapid restructuring of the US economy and accelerating changes in the makeup of the East Tennessee economy driven by these and other external economic forces. Continuing downward pressure on Federal budgets for programs that support three key institutions in the region - DOE`s Oak Ridge complex, the Tennessee Valley Authority and research programs of the University of Tennessee - are especially threatening to the region. With a large part of its economy dependent on Federal spending, the area is at risk of troublesome impacts that could ripple out from the Oak Ridge and Knoxville home of these institutions throughout the entire 15-county {open_quotes}Resource Valley.{close_quotes} As these economic forces play out in the region`s economy, important questions arise. How will East Tennessee {open_quotes}earn its living{close_quotes} in the future if the Federal government role in the economy shrinks? What kind of new industries will be formed to replace those at risk due to Federal cutbacks and economic restructuring? Where will the jobs come from for the next generation of job seekers? These are among the questions driving the 21st Century Jobs Initiative, an action-oriented program designed and implemented by local leaders in response to the economic challenges facing East Tennessee. Fortunately, the region`s economy is strong today. Unemployment is at near record lows in most counties. Moreover, leaders are increasingly aware of the threats on the horizon and are already moving to action. And the impacts from the forces at work on the economy will probably come slowly, over the next decade or so. Based on economic research and input from local leaders knowledgeable about the economy, the 21st Century Jobs Initiative has set forth a strategic economic development plan for the region.

  5. Cooperative learning in 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W. Johnson

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The 21st century brings four important challenges in which cooperation plays a central role: (1 a rapidly increasing global interdependence that will result in increasing local diversity as well as more frequent and intense conflicts, (2 the increasing number of democracies throughout the world, (3 the need for creative entrepreneurs, and (4 the growing importance of interpersonal relationships that affect the development of personal identity. The tools for meeting these challenges include cooperative learning. In this article the nature of cooperative learning will be reviewed, the underlying theory of social interdependence will be discussed, and the results of the research on cooperative learning will be briefly reviewed. The way in which cooperative learning contributes to meeting the four challenges will then be discussed.

  6. Digital Humanities in the 21st Century

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brügger, Niels

    2016-01-01

    In this article it is argued that one of the major transformative factors of the humanities at the beginning of the 21st century is the shift from analogue to digital source material, and that this shift will affect the humanities in a variety of ways. But various kinds of digital material...... are not digital in the same way, which a distinction between digitized, born-digital, and reborn-digital may help us acknowledge, thereby helping us to understand how each of these types of digital material affects different phases of scholarly work in its own way. This is illustrated by a detailed comparison...... of the nature of digitized collections and web archives....

  7. Antiparasitic DNA vaccines in 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wedrychowicz, Halina

    2015-06-01

    Demands for effective vaccines to control parasitic diseases of humans and livestock have been recently exacerbated by the development of resistance of most pathogenic parasites to anti-parasitic drugs. Novel genomic and proteomic technologies have provided opportunities for the discovery and improvement of DNA vaccines which are relatively easy as well as cheap to fabricate and stable at room temperatures. However, their main limitation is rather poor immunogenicity, which makes it necessary to couple the antigens with adjuvant molecules. This paper review recent advances in the development of DNA vaccines to some pathogenic protozoa and helminths. Numerous studies were conducted over the past 14 years of 21st century, employing various administration techniques, adjuvants and new immunogenic antigens to increase efficacy of DNA vaccines. Unfortunately, the results have not been rewarding. Further research is necessary using more extensive combinations of antigens; alternate delivery systems and more efficient adjuvants based on knowledge of the immunomodulatory capacities of parasitic protozoa and helminths.

  8. Hilbert problems for the geosciences in the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ghil

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available The scientific problems posed by the Earth's fluid envelope, and its atmosphere, oceans, and the land surface that interacts with them are central to major socio-economic and political concerns as we move into the 21st century. It is natural, therefore, that a certain impatience should prevail in attempting to solve these problems. The point of this review paper is that one should proceed with all diligence, but not excessive haste: "festina lente," as the Romans said two thousand years ago, i.e. "hurry in a measured way." The paper traces the necessary progress through the solutions to the ten problems: 1. What is the coarse-grained structure of low-frequency atmospheric variability, and what is the connection between its episodic and oscillatory description? 2. What can we predict beyond one week, for how long, and by what methods? 3. What are the respective roles of intrinsic ocean variability, coupled ocean-atmosphere modes, and atmospheric forcing in seasonal-to-interannual variability? 4. What are the implications of the answer to the previous problem for climate prediction on this time scale? 5. How does the oceans' thermohaline circulation change on interdecadal and longer time scales, and what is the role of the atmosphere and sea ice in such changes? 6. What is the role of chemical cycles and biological changes in affecting climate on slow time scales, and how are they affected, in turn, by climate variations? 7. Does the answer to the question above give us some trigger points for climate control? 8. What can we learn about these problems from the atmospheres and oceans of other planets and their satellites? 9. Given the answer to the questions so far, what is the role of humans in modifying the climate? 10. Can we achieve enlightened climate control of our planet by the end of the century? A unified framework is proposed to deal with these problems in succession, from the shortest to the longest timescale, i.e. from weeks to

  9. Global peat erosion risk assessment for the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Pengfei; Irvine, Brian; Holden, Joseph

    2015-04-01

    Many peatlands across the world are suffering from degradation and erosion exacerbated by human influences. Blanket peat erosion has adverse impacts on terrestrial and aquatic habitats, reservoir capacity and water quality, and also leads to accelerated carbon release. Bioclimatic modelling suggests that some areas, which are currently suitable for active peat growth, may be no longer under a climate supporting the accumulation of peat by the end of the century. Peat erosion in these marginal regions is thus more likely. A recently developed blanket peat erosion model, PESERA-PEAT, was established through significantly modifying the grid version of the Pan-European Soil Erosion Assessment model (PESERA-GRID) to explicitly include the freeze-thaw and desiccation processes, which appear to be the crucial drivers of peat erosion, and typical land management practices in blanket peatlands such as artificial drainage, grazing and managed burning. Freeze-thaw and desiccation are estimated based on climate (i.e. temperature) and soil moisture conditions. Land management practices interact with hydrology, erosion and vegetation growth via their influence on vegetation cover, biomass and soil moisture condition. The model has been demonstrated to be robust for blanket peat erosion modelling with riverine sediment flux data in the UK. In this paper, the PESERA-PEAT model is applied to investigate the impact of environmental change on the blanket peat erosion at a global scale. Climatic scenarios to the end of 21st Century were derived, as part of the QUEST-GSI initiative, from the outputs of seven global climate models: CGCM3 and CCCMA (Canada); CSIRO Mark III (Australia); IPSL (France); ECHAM5 (Germany); CCSM (US National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)); HadCM3 and HadGEM1 (UK). Land management practice such as artificial drainage is considered to examine if it is possible to buffer the impact of climate change on erosion through managing blanket peatlands in

  10. Training Librarians for 21st Century Repository Services: Emerging Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen Emasealu

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper reviewed the emerging roles of the 21st century librarians, charged with the responsibility to manage repository services across libraries in present-day information technology environment. Librarians need to be trained and empowered with requisite skills and knowledge needed for successful management of the ICT driven repository initiatives that the 21st century demands. Literature was reviewed on the roles and responsibilities of librarians, training needs and opportunities, career path and recruitment of librarians, and community support necessary for effective and efficient implementation and management of repository initiatives. This entails the ability to comprehend trends and change patterns which are essential for providing research focused and user-friendly models in open repository services that are based on thorough analytical understanding of the challenges of emerging trends. To achieve this requires the training and retraining of librarians to reposition them as information specialists in their career path. The role of the library as an integral part of its social environment is to educate the community about the existence of an open repository by building partnership with community-oriented research centres through seminars, workshops, symposium, training, and awareness programmes. The study recommends that librarians should strategize and collaborate with researchers to make open repository an essential research tool.

  11. The 21st century decline in damaging European windstorms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. C. Dawkins

    2016-08-01

    of the footprint exceeding 20 ms−1 over land, A20, is shown to be a good predictor of windstorm damage. This damaging characteristic has decreased in the 21st century, due to a statistically significant decrease in the relative frequency of windstorms exceeding 20 ms−1 in north-western Europe, although an increase is observed in southern Europe. This is explained by a decrease in the quantiles of the footprint wind gust speed distribution above approximately 18 ms−1 at locations in this region. In addition, an increased variability in the number of windstorm events is observed in the 21st century. Much of the change in A20 is explained by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO. The correlation between winter total A20 and winter-averaged mean sea-level pressure resembles the NAO pattern, shifted eastwards over Europe, and a strong positive relationship (correlation of 0.715 exists between winter total A20 and winter-averaged NAO. The shifted correlation pattern, however, suggests that other modes of variability may also play a role in the variation in windstorm losses.

  12. Smart Social Networking: 21st Century Teaching and Learning Skills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boholano, Helen B.

    2017-01-01

    Education in the 21st century highlights globalization and internationalization. Pre-service teachers in the 21st century are technology savvy. To effectively engage and teach generation Z students, preservice teachers will help the educational system meet this requirement. The educational systems must be outfitted with a prerequisite of ICT…

  13. GCM Projections for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation under Greenhouse Forcing for the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapp, S. L.; St. Jacques, J.; Barrow, E.; Sauchyn, D.

    2010-12-01

    The climatology and hydrology of the Pacific Northwest display strong periodic cycles which are correlated with the low-frequency Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO’s signature is seen throughout the North Pacific region, with significant associations with hydrology and ecology in Alaska, northeastern Siberia, Manchuria, Korea and Japan. Therefore, the status of the PDO in a warmer world caused by anthropogenic climate change is of great interest. We developed 21st century projections of the PDO, using data from archived runs of the most recent high-resolution global climate models (GCMs) from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The capacities of the current highest-resolution GCMs to project the future status of the PDO are just beginning to be explored. In this presentation, we examine the potential for the mean climate of the North Pacific to shift to more positive or negative PDO phase-like conditions.

  14. Modeling biomass burning and related carbon emissions during the 21st century in Europe

    KAUST Repository

    Migliavacca, Mirco

    2013-12-01

    In this study we present an assessment of the impact of future climate change on total fire probability, burned area, and carbon (C) emissions from fires in Europe. The analysis was performed with the Community Land Model (CLM) extended with a prognostic treatment of fires that was specifically refined and optimized for application over Europe. Simulations over the 21st century are forced by five different high-resolution Regional Climate Models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B. Both original and bias-corrected meteorological forcings is used. Results show that the simulated C emissions over the present period are improved by using bias corrected meteorological forcing, with a reduction of the intermodel variability. In the course of the 21st century, burned area and C emissions from fires are shown to increase in Europe, in particular in the Mediterranean basins, in the Balkan regions and in Eastern Europe. However, the projected increase is lower than in other studies that did not fully account for the effect of climate on ecosystem functioning. We demonstrate that the lower sensitivity of burned area and C emissions to climate change is related to the predicted reduction of the net primary productivity, which is identified as the most important determinant of fire activity in the Mediterranean region after anthropogenic interaction. This behavior, consistent with the intermediate fire-productivity hypothesis, limits the sensitivity of future burned area and C emissions from fires on climate change, providing more conservative estimates of future fire patterns, and demonstrates the importance of coupling fire simulation with a climate driven ecosystem productivity model.

  15. Oceanic N2O emissions in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Rey, J.; Bopp, L.; Gehlen, M.; Tagliabue, A.; Gruber, N.

    2014-12-01

    The ocean is a substantial source of nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere, but little is known on how this flux might change in the future. Here, we investigate the potential evolution of marine N2O emissions in the 21st century in response to anthropogenic climate change using the global ocean biogeochemical model NEMO-PISCES. We implemented two different parameterizations of N2O production, which differ primarily at low oxygen (O2) conditions. When forced with output from a climate model simulation run under the business-as-usual high CO2 concentration scenario (RCP8.5), our simulations suggest a decrease of 4 to 12% in N2O emissions from 2005 to 2100, i.e., a reduction from 4.03/3.71 to 3.54/3.56 Tg N yr-1 depending on the parameterization. The emissions decrease strongly in the western basins of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, while they tend to increase above the Oxygen Minimum Zones (OMZs), i.e., in the Eastern Tropical Pacific and in the northern Indian Ocean. The reduction in N2O emissions is caused on the one hand by weakened nitrification as a consequence of reduced primary and export production, and on the other hand by stronger vertical stratification, which reduces the transport of N2O from the ocean interior to the ocean surface. The higher emissions over the OMZ are linked to an expansion of these zones under global warming, which leads to increased N2O production associated primarily with denitrification. From the perspective of a global climate system, the averaged feedback strength associated with the projected decrease in oceanic N2O emissions amounts to around -0.009 W m-2 K-1, which is comparable to the potential increase from terrestrial N2O sources. However, the assesment for a compensation between the terrestrial and marine feedbacks calls for an improved representation of N2O production terms in fully coupled next generation of Earth System Models.

  16. Oceanic N2O emissions in the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Martinez-Rey

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The ocean is a substantial source of nitrous oxide (N2O to the atmosphere, but little is known on how this flux might change in the future. Here, we investigate the potential evolution of marine N2O emissions in the 21st century in response to anthropogenic climate change using the global ocean biogeochemical model NEMO-PISCES. We implemented two different parameterizations of N2O production, which differ primarily at low oxygen (O2 conditions. When forced with output from a climate model simulation run under the business-as-usual high CO2 concentration scenario (RCP8.5, our simulations suggest a decrease of 4 to 12% in N2O emissions from 2005 to 2100, i.e., a reduction from 4.03/3.71 to 3.54/3.56 Tg N yr−1 depending on the parameterization. The emissions decrease strongly in the western basins of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, while they tend to increase above the Oxygen Minimum Zones (OMZs, i.e., in the Eastern Tropical Pacific and in the northern Indian Ocean. The reduction in N2O emissions is caused on the one hand by weakened nitrification as a consequence of reduced primary and export production, and on the other hand by stronger vertical stratification, which reduces the transport of N2O from the ocean interior to the ocean surface. The higher emissions over the OMZ are linked to an expansion of these zones under global warming, which leads to increased N2O production associated primarily with denitrification. From the perspective of a global climate system, the averaged feedback strength associated with the projected decrease in oceanic N2O emissions amounts to around −0.009 W m−2 K−1, which is comparable to the potential increase from terrestrial N2O sources. However, the assesment for a compensation between the terrestrial and marine feedbacks calls for an improved representation of N2O production terms in fully coupled next generation of Earth System Models.

  17. Vaccines for the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delany, Isabel; Rappuoli, Rino; De Gregorio, Ennio

    2014-01-01

    In the last century, vaccination has been the most effective medical intervention to reduce death and morbidity caused by infectious diseases. It is believed that vaccines save at least 2–3 million lives per year worldwide. Smallpox has been eradicated and polio has almost disappeared worldwide through global vaccine campaigns. Most of the viral and bacterial infections that traditionally affected children have been drastically reduced thanks to national immunization programs in developed countries. However, many diseases are not yet preventable by vaccination, and vaccines have not been fully exploited for target populations such as elderly and pregnant women. This review focuses on the state of the art of recent clinical trials of vaccines for major unmet medical needs such as HIV, malaria, TB, and cancer. In addition, we describe the innovative technologies currently used in vaccine research and development including adjuvants, vectors, nucleic acid vaccines, and structure-based antigen design. The hope is that thanks to these technologies, more diseases will be addressed in the 21st century by novel preventative and therapeutic vaccines. PMID:24803000

  18. Biofabrication: a 21st century manufacturing paradigm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mironov, V; Trusk, T; Markwald, R [Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC 29425 (United States); Kasyanov, V [Riga Stradins University, Riga (Latvia); Little, S [South Carolina EPSCoR/IDeA Program, Columbia, SC (United States); Swaja, R [South Carolina Bioengineering Alliance, Charleston, SC 29425 (United States)

    2009-06-01

    Biofabrication can be defined as the production of complex living and non-living biological products from raw materials such as living cells, molecules, extracellular matrices, and biomaterials. Cell and developmental biology, biomaterials science, and mechanical engineering are the main disciplines contributing to the emergence of biofabrication technology. The industrial potential of biofabrication technology is far beyond the traditional medically oriented tissue engineering and organ printing and, in the short term, it is essential for developing potentially highly predictive human cell- and tissue-based technologies for drug discovery, drug toxicity, environmental toxicology assays, and complex in vitro models of human development and diseases. In the long term, biofabrication can also contribute to the development of novel biotechnologies for sustainable energy production in the future biofuel industry and dramatically transform traditional animal-based agriculture by inventing 'animal-free' food, leather, and fur products. Thus, the broad spectrum of potential applications and rapidly growing arsenal of biofabrication methods strongly suggests that biofabrication can become a dominant technological platform and new paradigm for 21st century manufacturing. The main objectives of this review are defining biofabrication, outlining the most essential disciplines critical for emergence of this field, analysis of the evolving arsenal of biofabrication technologies and their potential practical applications, as well as a discussion of the common challenges being faced by biofabrication technologies, and the necessary conditions for the development of a global biofabrication research community and commercially successful biofabrication industry. (topical review)

  19. Science for the 21st Century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2004-07-01

    The Federal government plays a key role in supporting the country's science infrastructure, a national treasure, and scientific research, an investment in our future. Scientific discoveries transform the way we think about our universe and ourselves, from the vastness of space to molecular-level biology. In innovations such as drugs derived through biotechnology and new communications technologies we see constant evidence of the power of science to improve lives and address national challenges. We had not yet learned to fly at the dawn of the 20th century, and could not have imagined the amazing 20th century inventions that we now take for granted. As we move into the 21st century, we eagerly anticipate new insights, discoveries, and technologies that will inspire and enrich us for many decades to come. This report presents the critical responsibilities of our Federal science enterprise and the actions taken by the Federal research agencies, through the National Science and Technology Council, to align our programs with scientific opportunity and with national needs. The many examples show how our science enterprise has responded to the President's priorities for homeland and national security, economic growth, health research, and the environment. In addition, we show how the science agencies work together to set priorities; coordinate related research programs; leverage investments to promote discovery, translate science into national benefits, and sustain the national research enterprise; and promote excellence in math and science education and work force development.

  20. Acidification of the Mediterranean Sea during the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Vu, Briac; Palmieri, Julien; Orr, James C.; Dutay, Jean Claude; Sevault, Florence

    2014-05-01

    We modeled the carbon cycle in the Mediterranean Sea to study how its changes due to climate change and rising levels of atmospheric CO2 may differ from those typical of the global ocean. More specifically, we coupled offline an ocean biogeochemical model (PISCES) to a regional eddy-permitting model of the Mediterranean Sea (NEMO-MED8, 1/8° nominal horizonal resolution) using forcing from coupled regional climate model simulations of which the ocean circulation component was identical. Here we describe the simulated changes in pH and the associated carbonate system during the 21st century. Separate simulations were made with climate forcing for a hindcast (1965-2008) and for the future (2000-2100). For the former, climate and CO2 forcings were based on observations; for the latter, both climate and CO2 were driven by the IPCC SRES-A2 scenario. Our hindcast simulation over the period 1965-2008 allowed us to evaluate the model and assess recent variability of the carbonate system. In our future simulation, we used separate tracers to distinguish (1) the change due to climate change and the increase in atmospheric CO2 (from 370 to 800 ppm) and (2) the change due only to climate change (holding atmospheric CO2 to the year-2000 level of 370 ppm). By difference, we isolated the geochemical effect (anthropogenic CO2 perturbation). The hindcast simulation demonstrates that the model captures the amplitude and phase of the annual cycle of temperature, pCO2 and pH, in agreement with data from the DYFAMED station. That seasonal variability of surface pCO2 is everywhere driven by variations in temperature. These results lends support that the model is able to quantify the acidification of the Mediterranean Sea during the industrial period and for the future. However, they do not constrain the model's simulated effects of future climate change on ocean circulation and ocean biology, both of which in turn influence the carbon cycle. Similar to estimates for the global ocean

  1. Lithium Resources for the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kesler, S.; Gruber, P.; Medina, P.; Keolian, G.; Everson, M. P.; Wallington, T.

    2011-12-01

    Lithium is an important industrial compound and the principal component of high energy-density batteries. Because it is the lightest solid element, these batteries are widely used in consumer electronics and are expected to be the basis for battery electric vehicles (BEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) for the 21st century. In view of the large incremental demand for lithium that will result from expanded use of various types of EVs, long-term estimates of lithium demand and supply are advisable. For GDP growth rates of 2 to 3% and battery recycling rates of 90 to 100%, total demand for lithium for all markets is expected to be a maximum of 19.6 million tonnes through 2100. This includes 3.2 million tonnes for industrial compounds, 3.6 million tonnes for consumer electronics, and 12.8 million tonnes for EVs. Lithium-bearing mineral deposits that might supply this demand contain an estimated resource of approximately 39 million tonnes, although many of these deposits have not been adequately evaluated. These lithium-bearing mineral deposits are of two main types, non-marine playa-brine deposits and igneous deposits. Playa-brine deposits have the greatest immediate resource potential (estimated at 66% of global resources) and include the Salar de Atacama (Chile), the source of almost half of current world lithium production, as well as Zabuye (China/Tibet) and Hombre Muerto (Argentina). Additional important playa-brine lithium resources include Rincon (Argentina), Qaidam (China), Silver Peak (USA) and Uyuni (Bolivia), which together account for about 35% of the estimated global lithium resource. Information on the size and continuity of brine-bearing aquifers in many of these deposits is limited, and differences in chemical composition of brines from deposit to deposit require different extraction processes and yield different product mixes of lithium, boron, potassium and other elements. Numerous other brines in playas

  2. Pediatrics in 21(st) Century and Beyond.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Meharban

    2016-11-01

    Pediatrics is a dynamic discipline and there is awareness and hope for actualizing outstanding achievements in the field of child health in 21(st) century and beyond. Improved lifestyle and quality of children's health is likely to reduce the burden of adult diseases and enhance longevity because seeds of most adult diseases are sown in childhood. Identification and decoding of human genome is expected to revolutionize the practice of pediatrics. The day is not far off when a patient will walk into doctor's chamber with an electronic or digital health history on a CD or palmtop and a decoded genomic constitution. There will be reduced burden of genetic diseases because of selective abortions of "defective" fetuses and replacement of "bad" genes with "good" ones by genetic engineering. Availability of totipotent stem cells and developments in transplant technology are likely to revolutionize the management of a variety of hematologic cancers and life-threatening genetic disorders. The possibility of producing flawless designer babies by advances in assisted reproductive technologies (ARTs) is likely to be mired by several ethical and legal issues.The availability of newer vaccines by recombinant technology for emerging infective and for non-infective lifestyle diseases is likely to improve survival and quality of life. There is going to be a greater focus on the "patient" having the disease rather than "disease" per se by practicing holistic pediatrics by effective utilization of alternative or complementary strategies for health care. Due to advances in technology, pediatrics may get further dehumanized. A true healer cannot simply rely on technology; there must be a spiritual bond between the patient and the physician by exploiting the concept of psycho-neuro-immunology and body-mind interactions. In the years to come, physicians are likely to play "god" but medicine can't achieve immortality because anything born must die in accordance with nature's recycling

  3. Early 21st century climatology of snow cover for the western river basins of the Indus River System: effects of changes on hydrological balance and society.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasson, Shabeh; Lucarini, Valerio; Riaz Khan, Mobushir; Petitta, Marcello; Bolch, Tobias; Gioli, Giovanna

    2014-05-01

    In this study we assess the snow cover and its dynamics for the western river basins of the Indus River System (IRS) and their sub-basins located in Afghanistan, China, India and Pakistan for the period 2001-2012. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) daily snow products from Terra (MOD) and Aqua (MYD) have been first improved and then analysed on seasonal and annual basis against different topographic parameters (aspect, elevation and slope). Our applied cloud filtering technique has reduced the cloud cover from 37% (MOD) and 43% (MYD) to 7%, thus improving snow cover estimates from 7% (MOD) and 5% (MYD) to 14% for the area of interest (AOI) during the validation period (2004). Our results show a decreasing tendency for the annual average snow cover for the westerlies-influenced basins (Upper Indus Basin, Astore, Hunza, Shigar, Shyok) and an increasing tendency for the monsoon-influenced basins (Jhelum, Kabul, Swat and Gilgit). Regarding the seasonal snow cover, decrease during winter and autumn and increase during spring and summer has been found, which is consistent with the observed cooling and warming trends during the respective seasons. Sub-basins at relatively higher latitude/altitude show higher variability than basins at lower latitude/mid-altitude. Northeastern and northwestern aspects feature larger snow cover. The mean regional snow line altitude (SLA) zones range between 3000 and 5000 m a.s.l. for all basins. Our analysis provides an indication of a decrease in the regional SLA zone, thus indicating a change in the water resources of the studied basins, particularly for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Such results are consistent with the observed hydro-climate data, recently collected local perceptions and glacier mass balances for the investigated period. Moreover, our analysis suggests some potential for the seasonal stream flow forecast as a significant negative correlation has been detected for the inter-annual variability of winter

  4. Onwards! Reinforcing Democracy for the 21st Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ismail Serageldin

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Universal suffrage has been the primary goal of democratic evolution. Despite elections and other measures taken to ensure democratic rights, some desired outcomes such as equality and transparency are not being met. The current mode of our democratic system is archaic in addressing the world’s multifaceted global crises. So, there’s a dire need to incorporate new elements of democratic governance to address the issue. Humanity now lives in a transition period, so the path may not be easy. But the scientific and technological revolution underway is rapidly changing the mindsets of people and helping them exercise their rights. The article thus focuses on how democracy serves as the best system to ensure human rights and provide for a better society and also, how current models of democratic governance which matured in the last century can be improved in the 21st century, which is instrumental for meeting the challenges humanity confronts today. – Editor

  5. Space medicine research: Needs for the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pepper, L. J.

    1992-01-01

    Space medicine research in the 21st century will continue to focus on the four major areas including: (1) expansion of the current incomplete knowledge base of clinical and subclinical physiological changes due to microgravity; (2) development of countermeasures to extend the capabilities of the human performance envelope in extended duration flights; (3) development of novel methods for delivering all aspects of a comprehensive health care system in extreme remote conditions: and (4) further research and application of systems for biological materials processing. New space transportation vehicles will place unique physiologic and human factors demands on the human system, while providing better access to platforms for materials processing. Success in meeting the demands in each of the noted research areas will require an extensive, interactive team approach. Personnel from the medical research,operational, developmental, and basic science communities will be essential to success.

  6. Musical instruments in the 21st century identities, configurations, practices

    CERN Document Server

    Campo, Alberto; Egermann, Hauke; Hardjowirogo, Sarah-Indriyati; Weinzierl, Stefan

    2017-01-01

    By exploring the many different types and forms of contemporary musical instruments, this book contributes to a better understanding of the conditions of instrumentality in the 21st century. Providing insights from science, humanities and the arts, authors from a wide range of disciplines discuss the following questions: · What are the conditions under which an object is recognized as a musical instrument? · What are the actions and procedures typically associated with musical instruments? · What kind of (mental and physical) knowledge do we access in order to recognize or use something as a musical instrument? · How is this knowledge being shaped by cultural conventions and temporal conditions? · How do algorithmic processes 'change the game' of musical performance, and as a result, how do they affect notions of instrumentality? · How do we address the question of instrumental identity within an instrument's design process? · What properties can be used to differentiate successful and unsuccessful ins...

  7. Challenges for Educational Technologists in the 21st Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robin Mayes

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In 1972, Edsger Dijkstra claimed that computers had only introduced the new problem of learning to use them effectively. This is especially true in 2015 with regard to powerful new educational technologies. This article describes the challenges that 21st century educational technologists are, and will be, addressing as they undertake the effective integration of new technologies into K-12 educational systems and learning environments. The expanding Internet, ever more powerful mobile devices, and other innovations make the task of designing effective formal and informal learning challenging, especially in light of the high rate of change in these new technologies. While these technologies introduce many benefits, they are also causing serious threats to system security and personal privacy. Furthermore, as these technologies continue to evolve, ethical issues such as equal access to resources become imperative. Educational technologists must expand their forward-thinking leadership and planning competencies so as to ensure effective use of new technologies.

  8. Climate Change Crunch Time

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xie Zhenhua

    2011-01-01

    CLIMATE change is a severe challenge facing humanity in the 21st century and thus the Chinese Government always attaches great importance to the problem.Actively dealing with climate change is China's important strategic policy in its social and economic development.China will make a positive contribution to the world in this regard.

  9. Projecting marine fish production and catch potential in Bangladesh in the 21st century under long-term environmental change and management scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Jose A Fernandes; Kay, Susan; Hossain, Mostafa A.R.; Ahmed, Munir; William W L Cheung; Lazar, Attila; Barange, Manuel

    2016-01-01

    The fisheries sector is crucial to the Bangladeshi economy and wellbeing, accounting for 4.4% of national gross domestic product and 22.8% of agriculture sector production, and supplying ca. 60% of the national animal protein intake. Fish is vital to the 16 million Bangladeshis living near the coast, a number that has doubled since the 1980s. Here, we develop and apply tools to project the long-term productive capacity of Bangladesh marine fisheries under climate and fisheries management scen...

  10. Do You Want Your Students to Be Job-Ready with 21st Century Skills? Change Pedagogies: A Pedagogical Paradigm Shift from Vygotskyian Social Constructivism to Critical Thinking, Problem Solving and Siemens' Digital Connectivism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kivunja, Charles

    2014-01-01

    As Michael Fullan (2001) so cogently asserts, the moral purpose of education is to equip students with the skills that will enable them to be productive citizens when they finish school. Whereas pre-21st century learning paradigms catered reasonably well for the pursuit of this moral purpose in turning out school leavers with specialized skills…

  11. Geoscience and the 21st Century Workforce

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manduca, C. A.; Bralower, T. J.; Blockstein, D.; Keane, C. M.; Kirk, K. B.; Schejbal, D.; Wilson, C. E.

    2013-12-01

    Geoscience knowledge and skills play new roles in the workforce as our society addresses the challenges of living safely and sustainably on Earth. As a result, we expect a wider range of future career opportunities for students with education in the geosciences and related fields. A workshop offered by the InTeGrate STEP Center on 'Geoscience and the 21st Century Workforce' brought together representatives from 24 programs with a substantial geoscience component, representatives from different employment sectors, and workforce scholars to explore the intersections between geoscience education and employment. As has been reported elsewhere, employment in energy, environmental and extractive sectors for geoscientists with core geology, quantitative and communication skills is expected to be robust over the next decade as demand for resources grow and a significant part of the current workforce retires. Relatively little is known about employment opportunities in emerging areas such as green energy or sustainability consulting. Employers at the workshop from all sectors are seeking the combination of strong technical, quantitative, communication, time management, and critical thinking skills. The specific technical skills are highly specific to the employer and employment needs. Thus there is not a single answer to the question 'What skills make a student employable?'. Employers at this workshop emphasized the value of data analysis, quantitative, and problem solving skills over broad awareness of policy issues. Employers value the ability to articulate an appropriate, effective, creative solution to problems. Employers are also very interested in enthusiasm and drive. Participants felt that the learning outcomes that their programs have in place were in line with the needs expressed by employers. Preparing students for the workforce requires attention to professional skills, as well as to the skills needed to identify career pathways and land a job. This critical

  12. Texting While Parenting: a 21st Century Trap

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... html Texting While Parenting: A 21st Century Trap Smartphones can get in the way of family life, and stress is the result, study finds To use the sharing features on this page, please enable JavaScript. (*this news ...

  13. Challenges of the 21st Century Ghanaian Universities | Braimah ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Journal of Science and Technology (Ghana) ... After going through a period of higher educational reforms, Ghanaian public Universities are now ... to address these challenges for the sustainability of Universities in the 21st Century Ghana.

  14. The human health chapter of climate change and ozone depletion ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate change is one of the greatest emerging threats of the 21st century. ... frequent weather extremes, increase in epidemics, food and water scarcity. Indirect risks to health are related to changes in temperature and precipitation, leading to ...

  15. Environmental Changes and Social Vulnerability in an Ageing Society: Portugal in the Transition from the 20th to the 21st Centuries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria João Guardado Moreira

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available One of the main structural changes human societies are actually facing relies on demographic ageing process, with strong impacts on health system and quality of life. Social and environmental factors can be used as predictors for health conditions, functional and cognitive autonomy, wellbeing and satisfaction on older ages. Reduced incomes, low educational level, situation of loneliness, can also be pointed as predictive factors of a major and premature deterioration of health. The adaptation of social structures must be a priority for all ageing societies. Portugal will also have to find answers to these challenges. The main objective of this study is to understand the process of vulnerability and multiple dependency situations caused by changes in the Portuguese demographic structure, manly regarding old people, as concerns the following aspects: a levels of well-being in ageing regions determined by a statistical indicator; b specific health care and long-term care.

  16. Vision & Strategy: Predictive Ecotoxicology in the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Vision & Strategy: Predictive Ecotoxicology in the 21st Century Daniel L. Villeneuve* and Natàlia Garcia-Reyero In the 20th century, predicting...2010 to 00-00-2010 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Predictive Ecotoxicology in the 21st Century 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT...century ecotoxicology can do Researchers have, for the first time, identi- fied the mechanisms of action of two toxins released by certain microalgae

  17. A-21st-century-approach to firefighting in the Western US: How microwave-based seismic networks can change fire suppression from reactive to proactive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, G. M.; Smith, K. D.; Williams, M. C.; Slater, D. E.; Plank, G.; McCarthy, M.; Rojas-Gonzalez, R.; Vernon, F.; Driscoll, N. W.; Hidley, G.

    2015-12-01

    The Nevada Seismological Laboratory (NSL) at UNR has recently embarked on a bold technical initiative, installing a high-speed (up to 190 Mb/sec) mountaintop-based Internet Protocol (IP) microwave network, enabling a myriad of sensor systems for Multi-Hazard Early Warning detection and response. In the Tahoe Basin, this system is known as AlertTahoe; a similar network has been deployed in north-central Nevada as part of a 5-year-long grant with BLM. The UNR network mirrors the successful HPWREN multi-hazard network run through UCSD; the UNR "Alert" program (Access to Leverage Emergency information in Real Time) has expanded on the original concept by providing a framework for early fire detection and discovery. Both systems do not rely on open-access public Internet services such as those provided by cellular service providers. Instead, they utilize private wireless communication networks to collect data 24/7 in real-time from multiple sensors throughout the system. Utilizing this restricted-access private communication platform enhances system reliability, capability, capacity and versatility for staff and its community of certified users. Both UNR and UCSD fire camera systems are presently being confederated under a common framework to provide end users (e.g., BLM, USFS, CalFire) a unified interface. Earthquake response has been both organizations' primary mission for decades; high-speed IP microwave fundamentally changes the playing field allowing for rapid early detection of wildfires, earthquakes and other natural disasters, greatly improving local and regional disaster response/recovery. For example, networked cameras can be optimally placed for wildfire detection and are significantly less vulnerable due infrastructure hardening and the ability to avoid extreme demands by the public on cellular and other public networks during a crisis. These systems also provide a backup for emergency responders to use when public access communications become overwhelmed or

  18. The relation between 21st-century skills and digital skills: A systematic literature review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Laar, Ester; van Deursen, Alexander Johannes Aloysius Maria; van Dijk, Johannes A.G.M.; de Haan, Jos

    2017-01-01

    Innovation starts with people, making the human capital within the workforce decisive. In a fast-changing knowledge economy, 21st-century digital skills drive organizations' competitiveness and innovation capacity. Although such skills are seen as crucial, the digital aspect integrated with 21st-cen

  19. The relation between 21st-century skills and digital skills: A systematic literature review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Laar, Ester; van Deursen, Alexander Johannes Aloysius Maria; van Dijk, Johannes A.G.M.; de Haan, Jos

    2017-01-01

    Innovation starts with people, making the human capital within the workforce decisive. In a fast-changing knowledge economy, 21st-century digital skills drive organizations' competitiveness and innovation capacity. Although such skills are seen as crucial, the digital aspect integrated with

  20. Social Diversity and Democracy in Higher Education in the 21st Century: Towards a Feminist Critique

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, Miriam E.

    2009-01-01

    This paper takes a feminist perspective on the UK literature on mass higher education in the 21st century, building on US critiques about marketization, neo-liberalism and "academic capitalism". Concepts of equality and diversity have been transformed by neo-liberalism and how these changes have constrained democratic contributions to UK…

  1. TOXICITY TESTING IN THE 21ST CENTURY: A VISION AND A STRATEGY

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krewski, D.; Acosta, D.; Andersen, M.

    2010-01-01

    With the release of the landmark report Toxicity Testing in the 21st Century: A Vision and a Strategy, the U. S. National Academy of Sciences, in 2007, precipitated a major change in the way toxicity testing is conducted. It envisions increased efficiency in toxicity testing and decreased animal ...

  2. From Digital Natives to Digital Wisdom: Hopeful Essays for 21st Century Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prensky, Marc

    2012-01-01

    What can you learn on a cell phone? Almost anything! How does that concept fit with our traditional system of education? It doesn't. Best-selling author and futurist Marc Prensky's book of essays challenges educators to "reboot" and make the changes necessary to prepare students for 21st century careers. His "bottom-up" vision is based on…

  3. Critical Thinking for 21st-Century Education: A Cyber-Tooth Curriculum?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgins, Steve

    2014-01-01

    It is often assumed that the advent of digital technologies requires fundamental change to the curriculum and to the teaching and learning approaches used in schools around the world to educate this generation of "digital natives" or the "net generation". This article analyses the concepts of 21st-century skills and critical…

  4. 21st Century Paradigms for Pre-Service Teacher Technology Preparation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Judy; Gong, Yi

    2010-01-01

    This study investigated major course changes in 11 sections of a stand-alone educational technology course redesigned around 21st century skill sets as opposed to technical skill development. Conducted in the fall of 2007 and spring 2008 with a random sample of 100 pre-service teachers, independent and paired sample t tests and correlational…

  5. 21st-Century Mentor Texts: Developing Critical Literacies in the Information Age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gainer, Jesse

    2013-01-01

    This column explores the idea of using 21st-century mentor texts to guide students in the development of critical literacy. The column focuses on one example from the U.S. presidential election of 2012 to illustrate how teachers might engage students to unpack the socially constructed nature of literacy. The author argues that the changing reading…

  6. Developing the 21st-Century Social Studies Skills through Technology Integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farisi, Mohammad Imam

    2016-01-01

    Recently, technology has become an educational necessity in global-digital era. Facing these phenomena, social studies (SS) should make innovations related to changes of 21st-century skills and learning paradigm, which is characterized by the principles of disclosure of information, computing, automation, and communication. Technology integration…

  7. The politics of plasticity: Sex and gender in the 21st century brain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleinherenbrink, A.V.

    2016-01-01

    The Politics of Plasticity examines how sex and gender are imag(in)ed in the 21st century brain. At the beginning of this century, the idea that the brain is plastic (i.e. that its structure and function change throughout life) began to replace the idea that adult brains are fixed. The claim that se

  8. Workplace, Organizational, and Societal: Three Domains of Learning for 21st-Century Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yorks, Lyle; Barto, Jody

    2015-01-01

    Interconnections between workplace and organizational learning can highlight the ongoing changes taking place that prestage the need for learning cities and regions. The diverse institutions that comprise cities and regions can function as organizational learning mechanisms in the 21st century. Learning cities themselves can also be conceptualized…

  9. Prediction of carbon exchanges between China terrestrial ecosystem and atmosphere in 21st century

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    The projected changes in carbon exchange between China terrestrial ecosystem and the atmosphere and vegetation and soil carbon storage during the 21st century were investigated using an atmos-phere-vegetation interaction model (AVIM2). The results show that in the coming 100 a, for SRES B2 scenario and constant atmospheric CO2 concentration, the net primary productivity (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystem in China will be decreased slowly, and vegetation and soil carbon storage as well as net ecosystem productivity (NEP) will also be decreased. The carbon sink for China terrestrial ecosystem in the beginning of the 20th century will become totally a carbon source by the year of 2020, while for B2 scenario and changing atmospheric CO2 concentration, NPP for China will increase continuously from 2.94 GtC·a?1 by the end of the 20th century to 3.99 GtC·a?1 by the end of the 21st century, and vegetation and soil carbon storage will increase to 110.3 GtC. NEP in China will keep rising during the first and middle periods of the 21st century, and reach the peak around 2050s, then will decrease gradually and approach to zero by the end of the 21st century.

  10. Prediction of carbon exchanges between China terrestrial ecosystem and atmosphere in 21st century

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JI JinJun; HUANG Mei; LI KeRang

    2008-01-01

    The projected changes in carbon exchange between China terrestrial ecosystem and the atmosphere and vegetation and soil carbon storage during the 21st century were investigated using an atmos-phere-vegetation interaction model (AVIM2). The results show that in the coming 100 a, for SRES B2 scenario and constant atmospheric CO2 concentration, the net primary productivity (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystem in China will be decreased slowly, and vegetation and soil carbon storage as well as net ecosystem productivity (NEP) will also be decreased. The carbon sink for China terrestrial ecosystem in the beginning of the 20th century will become totally a carbon source by the year of 2020, while for B2 scenario and changing atmospheric CO2 concentration, NPP for China will increase continuously from 2.94 GtC.a-1 by the end of the 20th century to 3.99 GtC.a-1 by the end of the 21st century, and vegetation and soil carbon storage will increase to 110.3 GtC. NEP in China will keep rising during the first and middle periods of the 21st century, and reach the peak around 2050s, then will decrease gradually and approach to zero by the end of the 21st century.

  11. Role of external factors in the evolution of the ozone layer and stratospheric circulation in 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Zubov

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The chemistry-climate model (CCM SOCOL has been used to evaluate the contributions of the main anthropogenic factors to the simulated changes of ozone and stratospheric dynamics during the 21st century. As the main anthropogenic factors we consider the atmospheric concentration of the greenhouse gases (GHG, ozone depleting substances (ODS and sea surface temperature and sea ice (SST/SI. The latter is considered here as an independent factor because the majority of the CCMs prescribe its evolution. We have performed three sets of "time slice" numerical experiments for the years 2000, 2050, and 2100 taking into account all factors separately and all together. The total column ozone increase during the first half of the 21st century is caused by the ODS, especially in the middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. In the tropics and the extra tropical region of the Northern Hemisphere (NH the SST/SI forcing plays a very important role in the evolution of atmospheric ozone during the second half of the 21st century. The GHG affect the temperature and ozone mainly in the upper stratosphere and in the lower stratosphere of the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere (SH. In the lower tropical stratosphere of the NH, the long-term changes of the temperature, zonal wind and the meridional circulation are controlled mainly by the SST/SI. The strong contribution of the SST/SI to the ozone and circulation changes in the future implies that some differences between the results by different CCMs could be caused by the applied SST/SI rather than by the CCM's deficiencies. We suggest taking this issue into account for the planning of the future model evaluation campaigns.

  12. Snow Cover on the Arctic Sea Ice: Model Validation, Sensitivity, and 21st Century Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blazey, Benjamin Andrew

    The role of snow cover in controlling Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness and extent is assessed with a series of models. Investigations with the stand alone Community Ice CodE (CICE) show, first, a reduction in snow depth triggers a decrease in ice volume and area, and, second, that the impact of increased snow is heavily dependent on ice and atmospheric conditions. Hindcast snow depths on the Arctic ice, simulated by the fully coupled Community Climate System Model (CCSM) are validated with 20th century in situ snow depth measurements. The snow depths in CCSM are found to be deeper than observed, likely due to excessive precipitation produced by the component atmosphere model. The sensitivity of the ice to the thermal barrier imposed by the biased snow depth is assessed. The removal of the thermodynamic impact of the exaggerated snow depth increases ice area and volume. The initial increases in ice due to enhanced conductive flux triggers feedback mechanisms with the atmosphere and ocean, reinforcing the increase in ice. Finally, the 21st century projections of decreased Arctic Ocean snow depth in CCSM are reported and diagnosed. The changes in snow are dominated by reduced accumulation due to the lack of autumn ice cover. Without this platform, much of the early snowfall is lost directly to the ocean. While this decrease in snow results in enhanced conductive flux through the ice as in the validation sensitivity experiment, the decreased summer albedo is found to dominate, as in the CICE stand alone sensitivity experiment. As such, the decrease in snow projected by CCSM in the 21st century presents a mechanism to continued ice loss. These negative (ice growth due decreased insulation) and positive (ice melt due to decreased albedo) feedback mechanisms highlight the need for an accurate representation snow cover on the ice in order to accurately simulate the evolution of Arctic Ocean sea ice.

  13. Egyptian Agriculture in the 21st Century

    OpenAIRE

    Rosenzweig, C; Hillel, D.

    1994-01-01

    In order to perform a proper, integrated assessment of potential climate change impacts on Egypt it was necessary to accurately identify important and impending issues and problems which are and will be facing the Egyptian agriculture sector into the next century. To this aim, two experts in the fields of Agronomy and Irrigated Agriculture in the Middle East were asked to travel to Egypt in order to assess the current state of Egyptian agriculture and pose possible questions and scenarios tha...

  14. Downscaling wind and wavefields for 21st century coastal flood hazard projections in a region of complex terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Andrea; Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    While global climate models (GCMs) provide useful projections of near-surface wind vectors into the 21st century, resolution is not sufficient enough for use in regional wave modeling. Statistically downscaled GCM projections from Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogues provide daily averaged near-surface winds at an appropriate spatial resolution for wave modeling within the orographically complex region of San Francisco Bay, but greater resolution in time is needed to capture the peak of storm events. Short-duration high wind speeds, on the order of hours, are usually excluded in statistically downscaled climate models and are of key importance in wave and subsequent coastal flood modeling. Here we present a temporal downscaling approach, similar to constructed analogues, for near-surface winds suitable for use in local wave models and evaluate changes in wind and wave conditions for the 21st century. Reconstructed hindcast winds (1975–2004) recreate important extreme wind values within San Francisco Bay. A computationally efficient method for simulating wave heights over long time periods was used to screen for extreme events. Wave hindcasts show resultant maximum wave heights of 2.2 m possible within the Bay. Changes in extreme over-water wind speeds suggest contrasting trends within the different regions of San Francisco Bay, but 21th century projections show little change in the overall magnitude of extreme winds and locally generated waves.

  15. Downscaling wind and wavefields for 21st century coastal flood hazard projections in a region of complex terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, A. C.; Erikson, L. H.; Barnard, P. L.

    2017-05-01

    While global climate models (GCMs) provide useful projections of near-surface wind vectors into the 21st century, resolution is not sufficient enough for use in regional wave modeling. Statistically downscaled GCM projections from Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogues provide daily averaged near-surface winds at an appropriate spatial resolution for wave modeling within the orographically complex region of San Francisco Bay, but greater resolution in time is needed to capture the peak of storm events. Short-duration high wind speeds, on the order of hours, are usually excluded in statistically downscaled climate models and are of key importance in wave and subsequent coastal flood modeling. Here we present a temporal downscaling approach, similar to constructed analogues, for near-surface winds suitable for use in local wave models and evaluate changes in wind and wave conditions for the 21st century. Reconstructed hindcast winds (1975-2004) recreate important extreme wind values within San Francisco Bay. A computationally efficient method for simulating wave heights over long time periods was used to screen for extreme events. Wave hindcasts show resultant maximum wave heights of 2.2 m possible within the Bay. Changes in extreme over-water wind speeds suggest contrasting trends within the different regions of San Francisco Bay, but 21th century projections show little change in the overall magnitude of extreme winds and locally generated waves

  16. Energy for the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubrecht, Gordon

    2009-04-01

    The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC was released in 2007 and dealt with the scientific basis for climate change, consequences of emissions, and mitigation and adaptation. The Industrial Revolution began the large-scale emission of pollutants to Earth's atmosphere and water from exploitation of coal, oil, and minerals. Energy has been cheap, if we do not consider the unintended consequences. The times may finally be changing--the cost of oil (in constant dollars), and the gasoline made from it, was higher through the first half of 2008 than at any time in history before declining with the global economic downturn, and promises to rise again when the global economy recovers. For the first time, a majority of Americans polled understand that global warming will lead to significant change in climate. How will these changes affect future actions of citizens of North America and the world? What can be done to protect the future of our children and grandchildren? This talk will focus on human effects on Earth of our need for energy and their import for the future.

  17. Water in the 21st Century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piechota, Thomas C

    2013-02-08

    This research project focused on sustainability issues in the southwest U.S. with an emphasis on water and energy. The efforts were directed through the UNLV Urban Sustainability Office with the funding used to develop a sustainability strategic plan; conduct extensive community outreach in the greater metropolitan area; provide seed money for multidisciplinary research teams to conduct studies in the areas of ecological, socio-cultural, and economic sustainability leading to community-based solutions; and to provide service-learning opportunities for UNLV graduate and undergraduate students. The research advanced understanding of urban and regional water issues with a particular focus on climate change and climate variability in the southwest. In addition, various events were held to promote discussion on energy, water, and sustainability discussions in the community. The impact of this research was broad dissemination of research through 13 peer-reviewed publications, learning opportunities for countless students as a result of class room equipment upgrades (see report for upgrade details), and new research funding for further advancement of these research efforts.

  18. Energy use and sustainable development in the 21st century - Local action and national strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-07-01

    This report sums up the conference ''Energy use and sustainable development in the 21st century - Local action and national strategies'' that was held in Oslo in 1999. The purpose of the conference was to stimulate the development of climate- and energy strategies and actions that support a sustainable use of energy locally and regionally. The report discusses important points from the various contributions and from the workshops of the conference.

  19. Young Adult Dystopias: Bildungsroman for the 21st Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ljiljana Gavrilović

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The paper examines young adult dystopian novels written in the first decade of the 21st century, as heirs to the tradition of the bildungsroman, and the great dystopias. The focus of this new genre has shifted from maintaining "the best of all worlds" – where the young person adjusts and fits into the existing world, to the shaping of the hero’s critical spirit which is supposed to result in the hero/heroine growing up, but also in changes in the world which they inhabit. Two other important characteristics of these novels are the critical relationship toward ancestors and tradition on the one hand, and on the other the positive assessment of non-rational decisions which are made impulsively and are based on emotions, which points to the abandonment of different aspects of the heritage of modernity (the traditions of rationalism and romanticism. Thus they set the stage for a new, different view of the world and the role which the individual is to fulfill by growing from a child into an adult in such a world.

  20. Being Black and Brown in the 21st Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre W. Orelus

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Depending on one’s level of understanding and awareness about the plight of Black and Brown people, one might argue that they are better off today than they were 50 years ago or so, especially when one remembers the Jim Crow era during which Black and Brown people were ruthlessly brutalized, particularly by White supremacist groups such as the Klu Klux Kan. However, if one critically analyzed the achievement gap between students of color and their White counterparts, the decline in incomes, and other forms of educational and socioeconomic inequality that Black and Brown people, particularly poor students of color, have been experiencing for the last several decades or so, one would realize that substantially nothing has changed for them. In light of this view, this article explores the educational and socioeconomic conditions of People of Color, including those of linguistically and culturally diverse students. Specifically, it examines the ways and the degree to which lack of resources combined with institutional racism and the legacy of slavery continue to limit the life chances of Black and Brown people in the 21st century. The author ends this article making recommendations to counter inequality in schools and society at large that Black and Brown people have been facing.

  1. Impact of LULCC on the emission of BVOCs during the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szogs, Sebastian; Arneth, Almut; Anthoni, Peter; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Stehfest, Elke

    2017-09-01

    Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) is one of the key drivers of anthropogenic climate change. In addition to greenhouse gases such as CO2 or CH4, LULCC affects also the emission of other carbon trace gases such as biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). We investigate the impact of changing LULCC on the emission of isoprene and monoterpenes during the 21st century using seven different land-use projections, applying the dynamic vegetation modelling framework LPJ-GUESS. Climate change, and atmospheric CO2-concentration are based on the RCP2.6 scenario. The different LULCC-scenarios explore the impact of different land-based climate change mitigation strategies (such as afforestation and avoided deforestation, or bioenergy). We show that the increase of land area under crops or grassland would lead to a significant decrease of BVOC emissions, with a strong negative correlation between the fraction of managed global land area and the emission of isoprene and monoterpenes. But the choice of crops is important, especially for the bioenergy scenarios in which increasing fractional cover leads to decreasing BVOC emissions in our simulations; use of woody bioenergy crops can reverse this decrease. The strong impact of LULCC on the global and regional emission of BVOCs implies the need to include the impact of these changes in projections of atmospheric composition and air quality.

  2. Global Warming and 21st Century Drying

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdun, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Coats, Sloan

    2014-01-01

    precipitation and PET changes increase the percentage of global land area projected to experience at least moderate drying (PDSI standard deviation of or = -1; 11 to 44 %), although this is likely less meaningful because much of the PET induced drying in the SPEI occurs in the aforementioned arid regions. Integrated accounting of both the supply and demand sides of the surface moisture balance is therefore critical for characterizing the full range of projected drought risks tied to increasing greenhouse gases and associated warming of the climate system.

  3. Technology Enhanced Formative Assessment for 21st Century Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spector, J. Michael; Ifenthaler, Dirk; Sampson, Demetrios; Yang, Lan; Mukama, Evode; Warusavitarana, Amali; Dona, Kulari Lokuge; Eichhorn, Koos; Fluck, Andrew; Huang, Ronghuai; Bridges, Susan; Lu, Jiingyan; Ren, Youqun; Gui, Xiaoqing; Deneen, Christopher C.; San Diego, Jonathan; Gibson, David C.

    2016-01-01

    This paper is based on the deliberations of the Assessment Working Group at EDUsummIT 2015 in Bangkok, Thailand. All of the members of Thematic Working Group 5 (TWG5) have contributed to this synthesis of potentials, concerns and issues with regard to the role of technology in assessment as, for and of learning in the 21st century. The group…

  4. Fostering 21st Century Skills through Game Design and Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garvey, Gregory P.

    2015-01-01

    This reflection paper argues that the design and development of digital games teach essential 21st century skills. Intrinsic to application and game development is design thinking. Design thinking requires iterative development, which demands creativity, critical thinking and problem solving. Students are engaged through learning by doing in both…

  5. Rice production in China in the early 21st Century

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    @@ Rice is the staple food crop in China. In the second half of the 20th century, rice has played an important role in feeding a large number of people. In the 21st century, rice will still be a main food crop in China and make great contribution to Chinese people's life.

  6. Software Engineering Technology for the 21st Century

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we will discuss the software engineering technologyfor the 21 st century. First we review development over the last half-century, overview application re quirement and environment, accept a challenge. Then we outline following software engineering techniques: 1) Process;2) Analysis;3) Design;4) UML;5) Component;6) Java +XML;7) Integrated;8) Quality(ISO9000&CMM).

  7. Understanding China's Curriculum Reform for the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, Wing-Wah

    2014-01-01

    This article uses curriculum-making frameworks to analyse and reconstruct the Chinese curriculum-making model and unpack the dynamics, complexity and constraints of China's curriculum reform since the early 1990s. It argues that curriculum reform is China's main human capital development strategy for coping with the challenges of the 21st century,…

  8. Cyberbullying and Sexting: Technology Abuses of the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegle, Del

    2010-01-01

    Many young people cannot remember a time before Instant Messaging (IM), cell phone text messaging, video conferencing, blogging, e-mailing, and MySpace and Facebook postings existed. Thanks to the ubiquitous nature of technology in the 21st century, digital natives are accustomed to seeing, and being seen, on a scale that was unimaginable by their…

  9. Attention, and Other 21st-Century Social Media Literacies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rheingold, Howard

    2010-01-01

    If educators want to discover how they can engage students as well as themselves in the 21st century, they must move beyond skills and technologies. They must explore the interconnected social media literacies of (1) attention; (2) participation; (3) cooperation; (4) network awareness; and (5) critical consumption. In this article, the author…

  10. Resource scarcity in the 21st century: conflict or cooperation?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Qasem, I.

    2010-01-01

    Oil and natural gas, water, food, and minerals are critical to ensuring our wellbeing and prosperity. The mismatch between future demand and supply is crystallizing into one of the most complex and urgent issues policymakers will face in the 21st Century. Unless the challenges arising from these sca

  11. Essentials for Engaged 21st-Century Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Virginia R.

    2012-01-01

    The Millennial Generation is a subject of paramount interest for 21st-century educators. It is a generation unlike its predecessors, with some stating it is the most intelligent consumer generation in history. Experts in the fields of neurobiology and psychology have found that Millennial brains may actually be "physically different" because of…

  12. Adventurous Lives: Teacher Qualities for 21st Century Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faulkner, Julie; Latham, Gloria

    2016-01-01

    What kinds of teachers are needed for 21st century learners? While there is recognition that curriculum content, classroom practices and learning environments must alter, there is less attention focussed on the teachers' dispositions for negotiating uncertainty. In this paper, the authors turn their attention to the importance of teachers' lives…

  13. Implementing 21st Century Literacies in First-Year Composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froehlich, Maggie Gordon; Froehlich, Peter Alan

    2013-01-01

    In November 2008, the National Council of Teachers of English published "The NCTE Definition of 21st Century Literacies" (21CL); its objectives include using technology, producing and analyzing multimedia texts, accessing and evaluating complex research sources, building relationships to enable collaboration, considering the diversity of a global…

  14. 21st Century Standards and Curriculum: Current Research and Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alismail, Halah Ahmed; McGuire, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    The integration of Common Core State Standards (CCSS) and 21st century skills in the curriculum is not only beneficial to students and teachers, but also necessary to prepare our youth for their future careers. In an age of education where standardized tests determine the success of our schools, it is important to allow students the creativity and…

  15. Developing 21st Century Process Skills through Project Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, Jeong-Ju; MacDonald, Nora M.

    2014-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to illustrate how the promotion of 21st Century process skills can be used to enhance student learning and workplace skill development: thinking, problem solving, collaboration, communication, leadership, and management. As an illustrative case, fashion merchandising and design students conducted research for a…

  16. Building 21st. Century literacies through digital animated storytelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjedde, Lisa

    2016-01-01

    -based learning for learner’s engagement, motivation and multimodal learning in a mixed methods study based on surveys, interviews and observations. The key literacy skills needed for 21st. Century learners have shifted from a predominant focus on verbal text towards multimodal literacies, that combine the visual...

  17. Upholding humanity: challenges of peace in the 21st century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gaay Fortman, B. de

    2000-01-01

    In this presentation we shall, first of all, explore the background to the topic for today as formulated by the organisers: Peace in the 21st century: between the supranational and the grassroots. From there some remarks will follow on the meaning of commemoration and liberation by giving you a very

  18. Cyber Portfolio: The Innovative Menu for 21st Century Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robles, Ava Clare Marie O.

    2012-01-01

    Cyber portfolio is a valuable innovative menu for teachers who seek out strategies or methods to integrate technology into their lessons. This paper presents a straightforward preparation on how to innovate a menu that addresses the 21st century skills blended with higher order thinking skills, multiple intelligence, technology and multimedia.…

  19. Servant Leadership: Guiding Extension Programs in the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astroth, Kirk A.; Goodwin, Jeff; Hodnett, Frank

    2011-01-01

    A new set of leadership skills is required for Extension administrators for the 21st century. Past models and theories are reviewed and discussed. The old "power" model of leadership is no longer relevant. A relatively new model called "Servant Leadership" is reviewed and explained. Seven key practices of servant leadership are outlined, and the…

  20. Understanding China's Curriculum Reform for the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, Wing-Wah

    2014-01-01

    This article uses curriculum-making frameworks to analyse and reconstruct the Chinese curriculum-making model and unpack the dynamics, complexity and constraints of China's curriculum reform since the early 1990s. It argues that curriculum reform is China's main human capital development strategy for coping with the challenges of the 21st century,…

  1. Ethics, religion and humanity: Rethinking religion in 21 st century ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ethics, religion and humanity: Rethinking religion in 21 st century Africa. ... AFRICAN JOURNALS ONLINE (AJOL) · Journals · Advanced Search · USING AJOL · RESOURCES ... First and foremost, religion is a human activity. ... results of inhuman and unethical practices in religion and that these problems can be minimized ...

  2. Essentials for Engaged 21st-Century Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Virginia R.

    2012-01-01

    The Millennial Generation is a subject of paramount interest for 21st-century educators. It is a generation unlike its predecessors, with some stating it is the most intelligent consumer generation in history. Experts in the fields of neurobiology and psychology have found that Millennial brains may actually be "physically different" because of…

  3. Servant Leadership: Guiding Extension Programs in the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astroth, Kirk A.; Goodwin, Jeff; Hodnett, Frank

    2011-01-01

    A new set of leadership skills is required for Extension administrators for the 21st century. Past models and theories are reviewed and discussed. The old "power" model of leadership is no longer relevant. A relatively new model called "Servant Leadership" is reviewed and explained. Seven key practices of servant leadership are outlined, and the…

  4. A New Leadership Paradigm for the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodland, Calvin; Parsons, Michael H.

    2013-01-01

    Leadership in the 21st century will require new insights and a new paradigm. With nearly 100 years of combined experience in community college teaching and administration, the authors of this chapter blend theory and experience into a design for engaging the "new normal."

  5. Transforming Power Systems; 21st Century Power Partnership

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2015-05-20

    The 21st Century Power Partnership - a multilateral effort of the Clean Energy Ministerial - serves as a platform for public-private collaboration to advance integrated solutions for the large-scale deployment of renewable energy in combination with deep energy ef?ciency and smart grid solutions.

  6. Designing Blended Learning Interventions for the 21st Century Student

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eagleton, Saramarie

    2017-01-01

    The learning requirements of diverse groups of students in higher education challenge educators to design learning interventions that meet the need of 21st century students. A model was developed to assist lecturers, especially those that are new to the profession, to use a blended approach to design meaningful learning interventions for…

  7. Dance Education in the 21st Century: A Global Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbert, Anne Green

    2005-01-01

    Margaret H'Doubler brought the magic of dance to the 20th century, yet the 21st century has yet to find a person to rekindle the same public desire for dance education. Consequently, the future of dance education in the next century is hard to predict. Based on an informal survey of fellow advisory board members of Dance and the Child…

  8. New Challenges in 21st-Century Dance Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kassing, Gayle

    2010-01-01

    To become competent in today's society, individuals need multiliteracies. The 21st-century dancer needs to be an artist, choreographer, educator, and researcher who can meet challenges and make an impact within the profession, as well as across education, the arts, and society. As dance professionals assess how to utilize their resources better…

  9. Improved Projections of 21st Century Trans-Arctic Shipping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melia, N.; Haines, K.; Hawkins, E.

    2015-12-01

    Climate models unanimously project a decline in the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice as the climate warms, but at differing rates. Projecting the timing of an ice-free Arctic is a topic that has received considerable scientific and public attention. An ice-free Arctic opens up the potential for shorter global trade routes through the Arctic Ocean and there has already been a sharp increase in the number of transits along Russia's Northern Sea Route with escorts from nuclear powered icebreakers.Here we present results on the future of trans-Arctic shipping using bias corrected sea ice thickness projections, utilising the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble and considering multiple emission scenarios. We find that for 'Open Water' vessels (normal ocean going vessels that possess no specific ice strengthening), unaided trans-Arctic shipping is likely to become feasible in the next couple of decades. We find that the North West Passage will open approximately a decade later than the Northern Sea Route. Initially however, both routes exhibit marked inter-annual variability in accessibility which we quantify. The hypothesised trans-polar sea route through international waters via the North Pole will start to become navigable by 2050. Towards the latter period of the 21st century, normal ocean going vessels will be able to transit their choice of any of these routes for at least six months of any given year under the RCP 8.5 high future emissions scenario and four months for the lower RCP 4.5 emissions scenario. These findings suggest that further increases in global temperature could transform the Arctic into a global transport hub.

  10. Boreal snow cover variations induced by aerosol emissions in the middle of the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ménégoz

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We used a coupled climate-chemistry model to quantify the impacts of aerosols on snow cover both for the present-day and for the middle of the 21st century. Black carbon (BC deposition over continents induces a reduction in the Mean Number of Days With Snow at the Surface (MNDWS that ranges from 0 to 10 days over large areas of Eurasia and Northern America for the present-day relative to the pre-industrial period. This is mainly due to BC deposition during the spring, a period of the year when the remaining of snow accumulated during the winter is exposed to both strong solar radiation and large amount of aerosol deposition induced themselves by a high level of transport of particles from polluted areas. North of 30° N, this deposition flux represents 222 Gg BC month−1 on average from April to June in our simulation. A large reduction in BC emissions is expected in the future in the Radiative Concentration Pathway (RCP scenarios. Considering this scenario in our simulation leads to a decrease in the spring BC deposition down to 110 Gg month−1 in the 2050s in the RCP8.5 scenario. However, despite the reduction of the aerosol impact on snow, the MNDWS is strongly reduced by 2050, with a decrease ranging from 10 to 100 days from pre-industrial values over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. This reduction is essentially due to temperature increase, which is quite strong in the RCP8.5 scenario in the absence of climate mitigation policies. Moreover, the projected sea-ice retreat in the next decades will open new routes for shipping in the Arctic. However, a large increase in shipping emissions in the Arctic by the mid 21st century does not lead to significant changes of BC deposition over snow-covered areas in our simulation. Therefore, the MNDWS is clearly not affected through snow darkening effects associated to these Arctic ship emissions. In an experiment without nudging toward atmospheric reanalyses, we simulated

  11. Anticipative management for coral reef ecosystem services in the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Alice; Harborne, Alastair R; Brown, Christopher J; Bozec, Yves-Marie; Castro, Carolina; Chollett, Iliana; Hock, Karlo; Knowland, Cheryl A; Marshell, Alyssa; Ortiz, Juan C; Razak, Tries; Roff, George; Samper-Villarreal, Jimena; Saunders, Megan I; Wolff, Nicholas H; Mumby, Peter J

    2015-02-01

    Under projections of global climate change and other stressors, significant changes in the ecology, structure and function of coral reefs are predicted. Current management strategies tend to look to the past to set goals, focusing on halting declines and restoring baseline conditions. Here, we explore a complementary approach to decision making that is based on the anticipation of future changes in ecosystem state, function and services. Reviewing the existing literature and utilizing a scenario planning approach, we explore how the structure of coral reef communities might change in the future in response to global climate change and overfishing. We incorporate uncertainties in our predictions by considering heterogeneity in reef types in relation to structural complexity and primary productivity. We examine 14 ecosystem services provided by reefs, and rate their sensitivity to a range of future scenarios and management options. Our predictions suggest that the efficacy of management is highly dependent on biophysical characteristics and reef state. Reserves are currently widely used and are predicted to remain effective for reefs with high structural complexity. However, when complexity is lost, maximizing service provision requires a broader portfolio of management approaches, including the provision of artificial complexity, coral restoration, fish aggregation devices and herbivore management. Increased use of such management tools will require capacity building and technique refinement and we therefore conclude that diversification of our management toolbox should be considered urgently to prepare for the challenges of managing reefs into the 21st century. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Multi-Model Assessment of the Factors Driving Stratospheric Ozone Evolution Over the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oman, L. D.; Plummer, D. A.; Waugh, D. W.; Austin, J.; Scinocca, J.; Douglass, A. R.; Salawitch, R. J.; Canty, T.; Akiyoshi, H.; Bekki, S.; hide

    2010-01-01

    The evolution of stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 is examined in simulations from fourteen chemistry-climate models. There is general agreement among the models at the broadest levels, showing column ozone decreasing at all latitudes from 1960 to around 2000, then increasing at all latitudes over the first half of the 21st century, and latitudinal variations in the rate of increase and date of return to historical values. In the second half of the century, ozone is projected to continue increasing, level off or even decrease depending on the latitude, resulting in variable dates of return to historical values at latitudes where column ozone has declined below those levels. Separation into partial column above and below 20 hPa reveals that these latitudinal differences are almost completely due to differences in the lower stratosphere. At all latitudes, upper stratospheric ozone increases throughout the 21st century and returns to 1960 levels before the end of the century, although there is a spread among the models in dates that ozone returns to historical values. Using multiple linear regression, we find decreasing halogens and increasing greenhouse gases contribute almost equally to increases in the upper stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere an increase in tropical upwelling causes a steady decrease in ozone through the 21st century, and total column ozone does not return to 1960 levels in all models. In contrast, lower stratospheric and total column ozone in middle and high latitudes increases during the 21st century and returns to 1960 levels.

  13. Some Hot Spots in the Study of Chinese Drugs in the 21st Century

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    肖培根

    2004-01-01

    @@ Mankind has entered the 21st century of high speed development in science and economics. Owing to the alteration of disease modes in the new century, the greatly elevated quality of human life and the arrival of aged society, the modes of medicine have obviously changed from the treatment mode to the prevention mode, the medical thought emphasizes more the holistic approach of human body.

  14. THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MORFO AS A COMMUNICATION ENHANCEMENT TOOL IN 21ST CENTURY LEARNING

    OpenAIRE

    Chandra Reka Ramachandiran; Malissa Maria Mahmud; Nazean Jomhari

    2016-01-01

    Learning has changed in the 21st Century. The learning process is no longer confined to the classroom alone, but extends to a global classroom. Students now use instructional technologies to synthesize newly acquired knowledge, collaborate with peers, solve problems, and formulate correct decisions. Therefore, communication becomes a vital process to ensure that learning takes place. Although it has been shown that effective two-way communication between the instructor and the learner is impo...

  15. Power Systems of the Future: A 21st Century Power Partnership Thought Leadership Report (Fact Sheet)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-01-01

    Powerful trends in technology, policy environments, financing, and business models are driving change in power sectors globally. In light of these trends, the question is no longer whether power systems will be transformed, but rather how these transformations will occur. Power Systems of the Future, a thought leadership report from the 21st Century Power Partnership, explores these pathways explores actions that policymakers and regulators can take to encourage desired power system outcomes.

  16. Tropospheric temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery in the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Hu

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Recent simulations predicted that the stratospheric ozone layer will likely return to pre-1980 levels in the middle of the 21st century, as a result of the decline of ozone depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol. Since the ozone layer is an important component in determining stratospheric and tropospheric-surface energy balance, the recovery of stratospheric ozone may have significant impact on tropospheric-surface climate. Here, using multi-model results from both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4 models and coupled chemistry-climate models, we show that as ozone recovery is considered, the troposphere is warmed more than that without considering ozone recovery, suggesting an enhancement of tropospheric warming due to ozone recovery. It is found that the enhanced tropospheric warming is mostly significant in the upper troposphere, with a global and annual mean magnitude of ~0.41 K for 2001–2050. We also find that relatively large enhanced warming occurs in the extratropics and polar regions in summer and autumn in both hemispheres, while the enhanced warming is stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. Enhanced warming is also found at the surface. The global and annual mean enhancement of surface warming is about 0.16 K for 2001–2050, with maximum enhancement in the winter Arctic.

  17. Drought assessment and trends analysis from 20th century to 21st century over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, X. L.; Ren, L. L.; Tong, R.; Liu, Y.; Cheng, X. R.; Jiang, S. H.; Yuan, F.

    2015-06-01

    Droughts are becoming the most expensive natural disasters in China and have exerted serious impacts on local economic development and ecological environment. The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) provides a unique opportunity to assess scientific understanding of climate variability and change over a range of historical and future period. In this study, fine-resolution multimodel climate projections over China are developed based on 7 CMIP5 climate models under RCP8.5 emissions scenarios by means of Bilinear Interpolation and Bias Correction. The results of downscaled CMIP5 models are evaluated over China by comparing the model outputs with the England Reanalysis CRU3.1 from 1951 to 2000. Accordingly, the results from the output of downscaled models are used to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Time series of SPI has been used to identify drought from 20th century to 21st century over China. The results show that, most areas of China are projected to become wetter as a consequence of increasing precipitation under RCP8.5 scenarios. Detailed examination shows that the SPI show a slightly increasing trend in the future period for the most parts of China, but drought in Southwest region of China will become the norm in the future RCP8.5 scenarios.

  18. Annual minimum temperature variations in early 21st century in Punjab, Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahangir, Misbah; Maria Ali, Syeda; Khalid, Bushra

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a key emerging threat to the global environment. It imposes long lasting impacts both at regional and national level. In the recent era, global warming and extreme temperatures have drawn great interest to the scientific community. As in a past century considerable increase in global surface temperatures have been observed and predictions revealed that it will continue in the future. In this regard, current study mainly focused on analysis of regional climatic change (annual minimum temperature trends and its correlation with land surface temperatures in the early 21st century in Punjab) for a period of 1979-2013. The projected model data European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) has been used for eight Tehsils of Punjab i.e., annual minimum temperatures and annual seasonal temperatures. Trend analysis of annual minimum and annual seasonal temperature in (Khushab, Noorpur, Sargodha, Bhalwal, Sahiwal, Shahpur, Sillanwali and Chinoit) tehsils of Punjab was carried out by Regression analysis and Mann-Kendall test. Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) data was used in comparison with Model data for the month of May from the years 2000, 2009 and 2010. Results showed that no significant trends were observed in annual minimum temperature. A significant change was observed in Noorpur, Bhalwal, Shahpur, Sillanwali, Sahiwal, Chinoit and Sargodha tehsils during spring season, which indicated that this particular season was a transient period of time.

  19. PR in the 21st Century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forbush, Dan; Toon, John

    1994-01-01

    The ways in which advancing technology will affect college and university public relations and the mass media in the next century are examined, and a survey of 60 campus public relations specialists and 40 journalists concerning predicted changes is reported. Implications for campus communications with the media are also discussed. (MSE)

  20. 21st Century Recruiting: Automated, Digital, Electronic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Valerie

    1997-01-01

    Examines ways in which technology is changing staffing office practices. Discusses features of the worldwide web, some of the potential problems in establishing a web site, and the importance of carefully planning a web site. Looks at digital resume warehouses and the increased power such warehouses offers recruiters. (RJM)

  1. Can Universities Survive the 21st Century?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summerlee, Alastair J. S.; Murray, Jacqueline

    2008-01-01

    Universities worldwide are facing a number of contradictory and competing pressures that range from under-funding to the very nature of universities and their roles in society. Pressures of the information explosion, the democratization of information through access to the Internet, and the advent of the knowledge-based economies have changed the…

  2. Transformations in Air Transportation Systems For the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Bruce J.

    2004-01-01

    Globally, our transportation systems face increasingly discomforting realities: certain of the legacy air and ground infrastructures of the 20th century will not satisfy our 21st century mobility needs. The consequence of inaction is diminished quality of life and economic opportunity for those nations unable to transform from the 20th to 21st century systems. Clearly, new thinking is required regarding business models that cater to consumers value of time, airspace architectures that enable those new business models, and technology strategies for innovating at the system-of-networks level. This lecture proposes a structured way of thinking about transformation from the legacy systems of the 20th century toward new systems for the 21st century. The comparison and contrast between the legacy systems of the 20th century and the transformed systems of the 21st century provides insights into the structure of transformation of air transportation. Where the legacy systems tend to be analog (versus digital), centralized (versus distributed), and scheduled (versus on-demand) for example, transformed 21st century systems become capable of scalability through technological, business, and policy innovations. Where air mobility in our legacy systems of the 20th century brought economic opportunity and quality of life to large service markets, transformed air mobility of the 21st century becomes more equitable available to ever-thinner and widely distributed populations. Several technological developments in the traditional aircraft disciplines as well as in communication, navigation, surveillance and information systems create new foundations for 21st thinking about air transportation. One of the technological developments of importance arises from complexity science and modern network theory. Scale-free (i.e., scalable) networks represent a promising concept space for modeling airspace system architectures, and for assessing network performance in terms of robustness

  3. 21st Century Global Freshwater Security: Can it Exist and Can Scientists Communicate the Challenges?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Famiglietti, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    Climate models and decades of satellite data are converging on the unfortunate reality that Earth's water cycle is changing. Paleoclimate indicators remind us that this has always been the case. Freshwater is constantly being exchanged among the atmosphere, ocean, land and ice reservoirs, while on land, patterns of precipitation, evapotranspiration, flooding and drought are shifting. The evolving water cycle of the 21st century will likely be stronger, more variable, and will result in broad swaths of mid-latitude drying, accelerated by the depletion of the world's major groundwater aquifers. A well-defined geography of freshwater 'haves' and 'have-nots' is clearly emerging. What does water sustainability mean under such dynamic climate and hydrologic conditions, in particular when coupled with future projections of population growth? How will water managers cope with these new normals, and how will food and energy production be impacted? The responsibility of communicating this changing global water landscape falls squarely on the shoulders of the academic-research community, yet the challenge of doing so is daunting. In this Special Lecture I will review what our latest research tells us, and I will share my personal experiences with science communication and water diplomacy.

  4. Leaning Towards Agile in 21~(st) Century

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    D; Ashall; B; Parkinson

    2002-01-01

    Background: During the last fifteen years there ha s been an increased drive for organisations to reduce costs. From a production po int, this has often centred on lean manufacturing and JIT waste elimination proc esses. However, in 1991, the Iaccocca Institute Bethlehem P.A commissioned a re port specifically to analyse the changing nature of the marketplace. As a result , in the following year, the Agile Manufacturing Forum was initiated and the ter m 'agile or responsive manufacturing' was first intr...

  5. [Treating diphtheria in the 21st century].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beneš, J; Džupová, O

    2013-12-01

    The existing recommendations for treatment of diphtheria involve the use of a hyperimmune serum neutralizing diphtheria toxin and subsequent penicillin therapy killing the pathogen. Unfortunately, diphtheria antitoxin is no longer available in the Czech Republic and this condition seems to remain permanent. Thus, the whole strategy for diphtheria treatment must be changed. Instead of penicillin, antibiotics inhibiting bacterial protein synthesis such as clindamycin or linezolid should be administered. Macrolides could be appropriate in mild to moderate disease.

  6. The 21st century chemistry journal

    OpenAIRE

    Bachrach, Steven M

    1999-01-01

    Internet publication will radically alter how chemists will publish their research in the next century. In this article, we describe two fundamental changes: enhanced chemical publication which allows chemists to publish materials that cannot be published on paper and end-user customization which allows readers to read articles prepared to meet their specifications. These concepts have been implemented within the Internet Journal of Chemistry, a new journal designed to employ the latest techn...

  7. Flexibility in 21st Century Power Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cochran, J.; Miller, M.; Zinaman, O.; Milligan, M.; Arent, D.; Palmintier, B.; O' Malley, M.; Mueller, S.; Lannoye, E.; Tuohy, A.; Kujala, B.; Sommer, M.; Holttinen, H.; Kiviluoma, J.; Soonee, S. K.

    2014-05-01

    Flexibility of operation--the ability of a power system to respond to change in demand and supply--is a characteristic of all power systems. Flexibility is especially prized in twenty-first century power systems, with higher levels of grid-connected variable renewable energy (primarily, wind and solar). This paper summarizes the analytic frameworks that have emerged to measure this characteristic and distills key principles of flexibility for policy makers.

  8. Will the 21 st Century be Aristotelian?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans Ulrich Gumbrecht

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available This text focuses on the discursive tradition that may be called Cultural Critique and on the dislocations in some fundamental epistemological structures. It presents changes in the working conditions within the Humanities in our electronic present and, inspired by themes from Heidegger's late writings, it seeks to condense the judgements previously formulated in a critique of the present. We also point out to a series of current symptoms that may serve as evidence to consolidate the hope in an Aristotelian future.

  9. Digital stereoscopic cinema: the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipton, Lenny

    2008-02-01

    Over 1000 theaters in more than a dozen countries have been outfitted with digital projectors using the Texas Instruments DLP engine equipped to show field-sequential 3-D movies using the polarized method of image selection. Shuttering eyewear and advanced anaglyph products are also being deployed for image selection. Many studios are in production with stereoscopic films, and some have committed to producing their entire output of animated features in 3-D. This is a time of technology change for the motion picture industry.

  10. 21st Century's energy: Hydrogen energy system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veziroglu, T.N.; Sahin, S. [Gazi University, Ankara (Turkey)

    2008-07-15

    Fossil fuels (i.e., petroleum, natural gas and coal), which meet most of the world's energy demand today, are being depleted fast. Also, their combustion products are causing the global problems, such as the greenhouse effect, ozone layer depletion, acid rains and pollution, which are posing great danger for our environment and eventually for the life in our planet. Many engineers and scientists agree that the solution to these global problems would be to replace the existing fossil fuel system by the hydrogen energy system. Hydrogen is a very efficient and clean fuel. Its combustion will produce no greenhouse gases, no ozone layer depleting chemicals, little or no acid rain ingredients and pollution. Hydrogen, produced from renewable energy (e.g., solar) sources, would result in a permanent energy system, which we would never have to change. However, there are other energy systems proposed for the post-petroleum era, such as a synthetic fossil fuel system. In this system, synthetic gasoline and synthetic natural gas will be produced using abundant deposits of coal. In a way, this will ensure the continuation of the present fossil fuel system. The two possible energy systems for the post-fossil fuel era (i.e., the solar-hydrogen energy system and the synthetic fossil fuel system) are compared with the present fossil fuel system by taking into consideration production costs, environmental damages and utilization efficiencies. The results indicate that the solar-hydrogen energy system is the best energy system to ascertain a sustainable future, and it should replace the fossil fuel system before the end of the 21st century.

  11. Health sector reforms for 21 st century healthcare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darshan Shankar

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The form of the public health system in India is a three tiered pyramid-like structure consisting primary, secondary, and tertiary healthcare services. The content of India′s health system is mono-cultural and based on western bio-medicine. Authors discuss need for health sector reforms in the wake of the fact that despite huge investment, the public health system is not delivering. Today, 70% of the population pays out of pocket for even primary healthcare. Innovation is the need of the hour. The Indian government has recognized eight systems of healthcare viz., Allopathy, Ayurveda, Siddha, Swa-rigpa, Unani, Naturopathy, Homeopathy, and Yoga. Allopathy receives 97% of the national health budget, and 3% is divided amongst the remaining seven systems. At present, skewed funding and poor integration denies the public of advantage of synergy and innovations arising out of the richness of India′s Medical Heritage. Health seeking behavior studies reveal that 40-70% of the population exercise pluralistic choices and seek health services for different needs, from different systems. For emergency and surgery, Allopathy is the first choice but for chronic and common ailments and for prevention and wellness help from the other seven systems is sought. Integrative healthcare appears to be the future framework for healthcare in the 21 st century. A long-term strategy involving radical changes in medical education, research, clinical practice, public health and the legal and regulatory framework is needed, to innovate India′s public health system and make it both integrative and participatory. India can be a world leader in the new emerging field of "integrative healthcare" because we have over the last century or so assimilated and achieved a reasonable degree of competence in bio-medical and life sciences and we possess an incredibly rich and varied medical heritage of our own.

  12. The 21st Century and I

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    董灵珊

    2006-01-01

    G ood M orning,ladies and gentlem en。Today I’d like to tell a story.Eleven years ago,there was once ahappy fam ily in a village of H enanProvince.B ut all of a sudden,it was com-pletely changed because of their father’sspecial illness and loss of w ork,whichcaused their m other’s leaving w ithout say-ing“G ood-bye”.The eldest brother had nochoice but to support the whole fam ily w ithhis tender little shoulder.H e was then only12years old.D ay after day,year afteryear,he was alw ays playing a role of afathe...

  13. Osteogenic Sarcoma: A 21st Century Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osasan, Stephen; Zhang, Mingyong; Shen, Fan; Paul, Paulose J; Persad, Sujata; Sergi, Consolato

    2016-09-01

    Compared to other bone tumors, bone osteogenic sarcoma (BOS) continues to confer a much grimmer prognosis as the survival benefit of traditional chemotherapy treatment regimens is still unsatisfactory. Chemotherapy was demonstrated to be effective in eradicating both primary tumor and pulmonary metastases in the last century, with effective agents used in various combination regimens having changed the survival rate from less than 10% to 75%. The most common primary bone cancer, BOS is conventionally a primary intramedullary high-grade malignant tumor characterized by malignant cells forming immature bone or osteoid. BOS is a disease with diverse morphological presentations. The treatment of all morphological variants seem to have been the same for over 30 years. The introduction of antiproliferative agents such as insulin growth factor-binding protein 3 hold promise of a potentially veritable therapeutic target. In this review, we highlight recent data on osteosarcoma to consolidate a platform able to connect bench and bedside.

  14. Developing 21st century skills in chemistry classrooms: Opportunities and challenges of STEAM integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadinugrahaningsih, Tritiyatma; Rahmawati, Yuli; Ridwan, Achmad

    2017-08-01

    The paper portrays the first year of two-year study in integration Science, Technology, Engineering, Art, and Mathematics (STEAM) in chemistry learning. The research focused on developing 21st-century skills of chemistry students in secondary schools. The 21st-century skills as a set of abilities that students need to develop in facing the future challenge which involves learning, literacy, and life skills. The study was conducted in two secondary schools both public and private school in topics of hydrocarbon, petroleum, solubility, and acid base in year 10 and 11. The qualitative methodology was applied to explore the students' learning experiences and understanding the research context. Data was collected through observation, interview, reflective journal, and 21st-century rubric. The STEAM approach was integrated through modification of project-based learning model. The students had opportunities to develop their own projects by integrating chemistry and STEAM principles to their project. The results show that students have developed their critical and creative thinking, problem-solving skills, collaboration and argumentation skills, leadership and responsibility, information and literacy skills. The researchers faced the challenges of integrating STEAM within the chemistry curricula, empowering students, and managing the teaching and time resources. Students have started to challenge their critical and creative thinking within the existing learning environments. Integrating STEAM into chemistry learning has developed students' 21st-century skills in those three areas. Teachers also learned to develop their competencies for being facilitators and agents of change, in addition to skills development in dealing with students' differences.

  15. The Sahelian agro-ecosystem vulnerability to an acceleration of ice-sheet melting during the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Defrance, Dimitri; Ramstein, Gilles; Charbit, Sylvie; Sultan, Benjamin; Dumas, Christophe; Vrac, Mathieu; Swingedouw, Didier; Gemenne, François; Alvarez-Solas, Jorge; Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul

    2016-04-01

    During the 20th century, Sahelian drought episodes like those between 1972 and 1982 showed the vulnerability of the Sahelian agro-ecosystem provoking significant intraregional southward human migrations, to or near the coast. According to the latest IPCC report, the Sahel could become increasingly impacted by climate change during the 21st century because of a lagged and shorter rainfall season having the potential to induce a drastic destabilization of the Sahelian agro-ecosystem and to heavily impact the population. Such effects could be further amplified by a net increase of the Sahelian population. Drastic climate changes over tropical areas also occurred in the past: weakening of the West African Monsoon and megadrought Sahelian episodes have been reported with a close correspondence between the large rainfall decrease and the massive freshwater discharges following ice-sheet melting or iceberg surges. During the last decades a continuous acceleration of ice-sheet mass loss has been observed and post IPCC-AR5 studies suggest the ice-sheet contribution to future sea-level rise could be revised upward due partly to the lack of an accurate representation of ice-ocean interactions. The release of freshwater discharge in response to ice-sheet instability could have large consequences on the most vulnerable regions, such as the tropical areas. To investigate the impacts of large ice-sheet instability during the 21st century, we first explore the climatic signature of Greenland or Antarctic ice-sheet collapse scenarios corresponding to 0.5 to 1.5 meter of sea-level rise, superimposed to the RCP8.5 scenario. We show that a freshwater discharge coming from Greenland melting induces a significant decrease of summer monsoon rainfall, that may lead to changes in agricultural practices. Combined with increasing demography, this has the potential to induce important human migration flows. Without adaptation measures, we estimate that tens to hundreds million people could be

  16. Japan in the 21st Century Geopolitics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pío García

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In 1853, Japan was forced to come out of its feudal isolation and become a part of the worldwide business network. Its opening up did not mean surrendering to external powers, but rather becoming immersed in an imperialist struggle, from which it would come out defeated in 1945. Nevertheless, Japan’s prostration was temporary, given that in the post-war period it became an unconditional ally of the same super power that had blocked its military aspirations with two atomic bombs. The strategic agreement with the USA remained intact even after the Cold War had ended. Moreover, the verbal struggle and show of frce in the Senkaku / Diaoyutai Islands, in 2012, facilitated a return to power which was more akin to the dictates of Washington and its security plan in the Pacific political wing. Today, the confrontation in Northeast Asia presents the Korean-American-Japanese block, on one side, and the Sino-Russian-North Korean, on the other, on a fork which must be seen as a new bipolar scheme which will guarantee the regional strategic equilibrium. However, progressive changes are expected in the balance of power in both the Asian sector and the rest of the world, due to the impact of growing Chinese economic, political and military power on geopolitical agreements, including the Japanese-American one.

  17. Glaciers in 21st Century Himalayan Geopolitics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kargel, J. S.; Wessels, R.; Kieffer, H. H.

    2002-05-01

    Glaciers are ablating rapidly the world over. Nowhere are the rates of retreat and downwasting greater than in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region. It is estimated that over the next century, 40,000 square kilometers of present glacier area in the HKH region will become ice free. Most of this area is in major valleys and the lowest glaciated mountain passes. The existence and characteristics of glaciers have security impacts, and rapidly changing HKH glaciers have broad strategic implications: (1) Glaciers supply much of the fresh water and hydroelectric power in South and Central Asia, and so glaciers are valuable resources. (2) Shared economic interests in water, hydroelectricity, flood hazards, and habitat preservation are a force for common cause and reasoned international relations. (3) Glaciers and their high mountains generally pose a natural barrier tending to isolate people. Historically, they have hindered trade and intercultural exchanges and have protected against aggression. This has further promoted an independent spirit of the region's many ethnic groups. (4) Although glaciers are generally incompatible with human development and habitation, many of the HKH region's glaciers and their mountains have become sanctuaries and transit routes for militants. Siachen Glacier in Kashmir has for 17 years been "the world's highest battlefield," with tens of thousands of troops deployed on both sides of the India/Pakistan line of control. In 1999, that conflict threatened to trigger all-out warfare, and perhaps nuclear warfare. Other recent terrorist and military action has taken place on glaciers in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. As terrorists are forced from easily controlled territories, many may tend to migrate toward the highest ground, where definitive encounters may take place in severe alpine glacial environments. This should be a major concern in Nepali security planning, where an Army offensive is attempting to reign in an increasingly robust and brutal

  18. Research universities for the 21st century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gover, J. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Huray, P.G. [Univ. of South Carolina, Columbia, SC (United States)

    1998-05-01

    The `public outcomes` from research universities are educated students and research that extends the frontiers of knowledge. Measures of these `public outcomes` are inadequate to permit either research or education consumers to select research universities based on quantitative performance data. Research universities annually spend over $20 billion on research; 60% of these funds are provided by Federal sources. Federal funding for university research has recently grown at an annual rate near 6% during a time period when other performers of Federal research have experienced real funding cuts. Ten universities receive about 25% of the Federal funds spent on university research. Numerous studies of US research universities are reporting storm clouds. Concerns include balancing research and teaching, the narrow focus of engineering education, college costs, continuing education, and public funding of foreign student education. The absence of research on the `public outcomes` from university research results in opinion, politics, and mythology forming the basis of too many decisions. Therefore, the authors recommend studies of other nations` research universities, studies of various economic models of university research, analysis of the peer review process and how well it identifies the most capable research practitioners and at what cost, and studies of research university ownership of intellectual property that can lead to increased `public outcomes` from publicly-funded research performed by research universities. They advocate two practices that could increase the `public outcomes` from university research. These are the development of science roadmaps that link science research to `public outcomes` and `public outcome` metrics. Changes in the university research culture and expanded use of the Internet could also lead to increased `public outcomes`. They recommend the use of tax incentives to encourage companies to develop research partnerships with research

  19. DEVELOPING THE 21ST-CENTURY SOCIAL STUDIES SKILLS THROUGH TECHNOLOGY INTEGRATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Imam FARISI

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, technology has become an educational necessity in global-digital era. Facing these phenomena, social studies (SS should make innovations related to changes of 21st-century skills and learning paradigm, which is characterized by the principles of disclosure of information, computing, automation, and communication. Technology integration into SS learning is one of the learning innovations in the global-digital era, and powerfully supports the National Council for Social Studies (NCSS as stated in their visions: meaningful, powerful, value-based, challenging, and active. It also strongly supports the development of three core skills of the 21st-century, including learning and innovation skills; information, media and technology skills; life and career skills that developed in partnership with the Partnership Forum for 21st-Century Skills (P21. This paper examines and describes academics evolution toward a commitment and further developments in research; 21stcentury skills map for the SS; and the implications for developing teachers’ competences and teachers’ education curriculum.

  20. Technology Born Fictions for the Cities of 21st Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehmet Rıfat Akbulut

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Information and communication technologies will undoubtely be leading determinants of urban landscape in the 21st century. Until the present day, it was assumed that urban landscapes were being shaped by conventional factors such as demography, social and economical structure, transportion, infrastructure, building technologies etc. In spite of many speculative approaches, recent developments in information and communication technologies can offer us some clues which may go beyond mere speculation. The“intelligent city” which is based on “autonomous” and “intelligent” objects and agents promising novel solutions to urban problems. Mobile communication is also another promising domain to offer creative solutions to some cronical urban problems. All these novelties provide sufficient reasons to think about new urban structures based upon information technologies.This paper is an attempt to discuss probable effects of information technologies, as new dynamics to shape the urban environment and urban life of the 21st century.

  1. 21st Century Kinematics : The 2012 NSF Workshop

    CERN Document Server

    2013-01-01

    21st Century Kinematics focuses on algebraic problems in the analysis and synthesis of mechanisms and robots, compliant mechanisms, cable-driven systems and protein kinematics. The specialist contributors provide the background for a series of presentations at the 2012 NSF Workshop. The text shows how the analysis and design of innovative mechanical systems yield increasingly complex systems of polynomials, characteristic of those systems. In doing so, takes advantage of increasingly sophisticated computational tools developed for numerical algebraic geometry and demonstrates the now routine derivation of polynomial systems dwarfing the landmark problems of even the recent past. The 21st Century Kinematics workshop echoes the NSF-supported 1963 Yale Mechanisms Teachers Conference that taught a generation of university educators the fundamental principles of kinematic theory. As such these proceedings will be provide admirable supporting theory for a graduate course in modern kinematics and should be of consid...

  2. Energy in ASEAN: An outlook into the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arismunandar, A.; Dupuis, P.

    The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was formed in Bangkok in 1967 by five countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. A sixth nation, recently independent Brunei Darussalam, joined the association in 1984. The story on enery in the ASEAN is presented. The topics covered include the following: energy resources; energy demand versus elasticity; how to cope with energy demand; and an outlook into the 21st century.

  3. Strategic Leader Development for a 21st Century Army

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-04-30

    Fall of Strategic Planning. New York, NY: The Free Press, 1994. Northouse , Peter G. Leadership : Theory and Practice . Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage...the 21st-Century Army,” Parameters, (Autumn 2001), 18. 40 Elliott Jaques and Stephen D. Clement, Executive Leadership : A Practical Guide to...Stephen D. Clement. Executive Leadership : A Practical Guide to Managing Complexity. Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishing, 1994. Mintzberg, Henry. The Rise and

  4. DOE pollution prevention in the 21st century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-10-01

    This document presents abstracts of the topics covered in the DOE Pollution Prevention in the 21st Century conference held July 9-11, 1996. These topics include: model facilities; Federal/NEPA/stake- holders; microchemistry; solvents and reduction; education and outreach; return on investments; energy management; decontamination and decommissioning; planning and regulations; environmental restoration; recycling; affirmative procurement in the executive branch; construction and demolition; materials exchange; and ISO 2000.

  5. DOE pollution prevention in the 21st century. Proceedings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1996-12-31

    This CD-ROM contains the proceedings from the DOE Pollution Prevention in the 21st Century Conference XII held July 9-11, 1996. Topics included model facilities, federal and NEPA stakeholders, microchemistry, source 4 solvents and reduction, education and outreach planning, return on investment, energy management, decontamination and decommissioning, planning and regulations, environmental restoration, solid waste, recycling, affirmative procurement in the executive branch, construction and demolition, international and ISO 14000, and poster sessions.

  6. [Multidisciplinary treatment of lung cancer in 21st century].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aikawa, Hirokazu; Sagawa, M; Usuda, K; Ueno, M; Tanaka, M; Machida, Y; Sakuma, T

    2008-01-01

    Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths in Japan. Recently, big progress in the treatment of lung cancer has been achieved, such as new anti-cancer drugs, molecular targeted therapy, stereotactic radiotherapy, etc. Multidisciplinary approach has been required to the therapy for lung cancer patients. In this paper, we introduce The 21st Century Multidisciplinary Center in Kanazawa Medical University, and the Hokuriku Training Program for Making Specialists in Cancer Treatment.

  7. Aviation Security Force Assistance: A 21st Century Imperative

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-22

    narrative to address the “irregular” challenges proliferating into the 21st century. Much of the focus was directly related to building the capacity of...a holistic narrative for AvSFA, has developed a different perspective on their roles and missions relative to aviation in SFA. The Joint Force as a...mission with the Honduran Air Force in January and February 2012, exercised the comprehensive components of nascent Air Force general purpose forces

  8. Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prudhomme, Christel; Giuntoli, Ignazio; Robinson, Emma L; Clark, Douglas B; Arnell, Nigel W; Dankers, Rutger; Fekete, Balázs M; Franssen, Wietse; Gerten, Dieter; Gosling, Simon N; Hagemann, Stefan; Hannah, David M; Kim, Hyungjun; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

    2014-03-04

    Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty.

  9. 78 FR 7387 - Advisory Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture; Renewal

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-01

    ...; ] DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Advisory Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture; Renewal AGENCY: Agricultural Research Service, USDA. ACTION: Advisory Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture... Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture (AC21). The Secretary of Agriculture has...

  10. Dynamic EROI Assessment of the IPCC 21st Century Electricity Production Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Neumeyer

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Energy Return on Investment (EROI is an important measure of the energy gain of an electrical power generating facility that is typically evaluated based on the life cycle energy balance of a single facility. The EROI concept can be extended to cover a collection of facilities that comprise a complete power system and used to assess the expansion and evolution of a power system as it transitions from one portfolio mix of technologies to another over time. In this study we develop a dynamic EROI model that simulates the evolution of a power system and we perform an EROI simulation of one of the electricity production scenarios developed under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC covering the global supply of electricity in the 21st century. Our analytic tool provides the means for evaluation of dynamic EROI based on arbitrary time-dependent demand scenarios by modeling the required expansion of power generation, including the plowback needed for new construction and to replace facilities as they are retired. The results provide insight into the level of installed and delivered power, above and beyond basic consumer demand, that is required to support construction during expansion, as well as the supplementary power that may be required if plowback constraints are imposed. In addition, sensitivity to EROI parameters, and the impact of energy storage efficiency are addressed.

  11. Importance of soil thermal dynamics on land carbon sequestration in Northern Eurasia during the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kicklighter, David; Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Zhuang, Qianlai; Melillo, Jerry

    2015-04-01

    Recent modeling studies have suggested that carbon sinks in pan-arctic ecosystems may be weakening partially as a result of warming-induced increases in soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition and the exposure of previously frozen SOM to decomposition. This weakening of carbon sinks is likely to continue in the future as vast amount of carbon in permafrost soils is vulnerable to thaw. Here, we examine the importance of considering soil thermal dynamics when determining the effects of climate change and land-use change on carbon dynamics in Northern Eurasia during the 21st century. This importance is assessed by comparing results for a "business as usual" scenario between a version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model that does not consider soil thermal dynamics (TEM 4.4) and a version that does consider these dynamics (TEM 6.0). In this scenario, which is similar to the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario, the net area covered by food crops and pastures in Northern Eurasia is assumed to remain relatively constant over the 21st century, but the area covered by secondary forests is projected to double as a result of timber harvest and the abandonment of land associated with displacement of agricultural land. Enhanced decomposition from the newly exposed SOM from permafrost thaw also increases nitrogen availability for plant production so that the loss of carbon from the enhanced decomposition is partially compensated by enhanced uptake and storage of atmospheric carbon dioxide in vegetation. Our results indicate that consideration of soil thermal dynamics have a large influence on how simulated terrestrial carbon dynamics in Northern Eurasia respond to changes in climate, atmospheric chemistry (e.g., carbon dioxide fertilization, ozone pollution, nitrogen deposition) and disturbances.

  12. Hydro-Meteorological Drought Projections into the 21-st Century for Selected Polish Catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hadush K. Meresa

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The nature of drought conditions is estimated using a range of indices describing different aspects of drought events. Three drought indices are evaluated, namely the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI, using observed hydroclimatic data and applying them to hydro-meteorological projections into the 21st century. The first two indices are evaluated using only meteorological variables and from this point of view, are better suited to meteorological drought projections than the third index, SRI, which is based on catchment discharge and represents hydrological drought. We assess information contained in those indices and their suitability to catchment scale climate projection drought assessment in ten selected Polish catchments, representing different hydro-climatic conditions, which are used as a case study. Projections of climatic variables (precipitation and temperature are obtained from the EURO-CORDEX initiative derived from seven climate models at a grid resolution of 12.5 km for the time period 1971–2100. Future runoff projections for the catchments are obtained using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (HBV. The results of analyses of indices based on observations in the reference period show consistent estimates for most of the catchments. Hydro-meteorological climate model projections for three periods, including the reference period 1971–2000, and two 30-year periods, near-future 2021–2050 and far-future 2071–2100, are used to estimate changes of future drought conditions in the catchments studied. The results show a substantial variation of temporal drought patterns over the catchments and their dependence on projected precipitation and temperature variables and the type of indices applied. Of the three indices studied, only SPEI projections indicate drier conditions in the catchments in the far-future period. The other two indices

  13. The stagnation of the Mexican male life expectancy in the first decade of the 21st century

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; García-Guerrero, Víctor Manuel; Echarri-Cánovas, Carlos Javier

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: In the first decade of the 21st century, the Mexican life expectancy changed from a long trend of increase to stagnation. These changes concur with an increase in deaths by homicides that the country experienced in that decade, and an obesity epidemic that had developed over the last ...

  14. Skills Needed to Survive and Thrive as a Scholar in the 21st Century: Information, Knowledge, and Publication Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conceição, Simone C. O.

    2013-01-01

    The changes in the way our work is created, published, and disseminated have implications for our own professional development and require us to be aware of the necessary skills. In this article, I identify three important skills scholars need to have and tools to be effective, efficient, and productive scholars in the 21st century: information…

  15. Developing "Design Minds" for the 21st Century through a Public Sector Initiated Online Design Education Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duell, Christian; Wright, Natalie; Roxburgh, Joanna

    2014-01-01

    Education in the 21st century demands a model for understanding a new culture of learning in the face of rapid change, open access data and geographical diversity. Teachers no longer need to provide the latest information because students themselves are taking an active role in peer collectives to help create it. This paper examines, through an…

  16. Skills Needed to Survive and Thrive as a Scholar in the 21st Century: Information, Knowledge, and Publication Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conceição, Simone C. O.

    2013-01-01

    The changes in the way our work is created, published, and disseminated have implications for our own professional development and require us to be aware of the necessary skills. In this article, I identify three important skills scholars need to have and tools to be effective, efficient, and productive scholars in the 21st century: information…

  17. The Implementation and Assessment of a Shared 21st Century Learning Vision: A District-Based Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunn, Thelma M.; Hollingsworth, Maurice

    2013-01-01

    Traditional educational patterns are giving way to more innovative modes and methods of learning, primarily due to radical technological changes that have increased the availability of information and improved communication. In an attempt to address this shift toward 21st century skills and learning, a single school district began a large-scale,…

  18. Cancer Screening and Early Detection in the 21(st) Century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loud, Jennifer T; Murphy, Jeanne

    2017-05-01

    To review the trends in and principles of cancer screening and early detection. Journal articles, United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) publications, professional organization position statements, and evidence-based summaries. Cancer screening has contributed to decreasing the morbidity and mortality of cancer. Efforts to improve the selection of candidates for cancer screening, to understand the biological basis of carcinogenesis, and the development of new technologies for cancer screening will allow for improvements in cancer screening over time. Nurses are well-positioned to lead the implementation of cancer screening recommendations in the 21(st) century through their practice, research, educational efforts, and advocacy. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  19. Social Aesthetics in Learning Practices in the 21st Century

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buhl, Mie; Ejsing-Duun, Stine

    Social Aesthetics in Learning Practices in the 21st Century Due to the extensive reliance on media in our everyday perception of the surroundings we see a shift in relation to aesthetics from an individual focus to social negotiations around a situation. This article presents how individuals shape...... aesthetic systems through the use of networked media, resulting in self-producing systems that make themselves available for recognition, as well internally as externally. These cultures unfold in formats that educational institutions are not geared to meet. The article demonstrates and builds its arguments...... approach in which the process of decoding and negotiations around practices in social media is significant....

  20. [Media for 21st century--towards human communication media].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harashima, H

    2000-05-01

    Today, with the approach of the 21st century, attention is focused on multi-media communications combining computer, visual and audio technologies. This article discusses the communication media target and the technological problems constituting the nucleus of multi-media. The communication media is becoming an environment from which no one can escape. Since the media has such a great power, what is needed now is not to predict the future technologies, but to estimate the future world and take to responsibility for future environments.

  1. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT FACING CHALLENGES IN 21ST CENTURY

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The 21st Century is the time for human seeking harmonizing with environment and carrying out sustainable development strategy. But sustainable development is facing many challenges. They may mainly include the follows: challenge comes from the contradiction between human and the earth, challenge of local benefit conflict to human common goal, challenge of competition to fairness, challenge of unbalanced development in regions and countries, challenge of diversity and challenge of calamity. Challenges are not only pressure, but also the motive force. Challenge exists, the motive force would never stop. Sustainable development was born in challenges, is developing in contradiction and will sustain in conflict.

  2. 21st Century Power Partnership: September 2016 Fellowship Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reber, Timothy J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-09-29

    This report details the 21st Century Power Partnership fellowship from September 2016. This Fellowship is a follow-up to the Technical Audit of Eskom's Medium- and Long-term Modelling Capabilities, conducted by U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in April 2016. The prospect and role of variable renewable energy (vRE) in South Africa poses new modelling-related challenges that Eskom is actively working to address by improving the fidelity of PLEXOS LT and ST models.

  3. Dinosaur or Phoenix: Nuclear Bombers in the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-12

    REPORT DATE 02-04-10 2. REPORT TYPE Master’s Thesis 3. DATES COVERED 31-07-09 to 16-06-10 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Dinosaur or Phoenix: Nuclear...WARFIGHTING SCHOOL DINOSAUR OR PHOENIX: NUCLEAR BOMBERS IN THE 21ST CENTURY by John W. Morehead Colonel, United States Air Force A paper...can argue Secretary Gates’ decision to halt development of a follow-on bomber indicates the DOD views nuclear bombers as dinosaurs no longer needed as

  4. Coal industry of Russia in early 21st century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malyshev, Y.N.; Trubetskoy, K.N. [Russian Union of Coal Producers, Moscow (Russia)

    2001-06-01

    The Russian coal industry enters 21st century as a completely revived and re-engineered profitable sector of the national economy, which is able to meet the national demand for coal and also to gradually expand the Russian annual exports of high quality coals to 40 MT. For the immediate future the improvement of coal sector efficiency on the basis of radical restructuring, introducing of the latest advanced technologies and product quality upgrading as well as the quantitative expansion of coal production, can be considered as the key direction for development. 4 refs., 4 annexs.

  5. Death in Design in the 21st Century

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sabra, Jakob Borrits

    The digital spheres of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and Social Network Services (SNS) are influencing 21st. century death. Today the dying and the bereaved attend mourning and remembrance both online and offline, and combined, cemeteries, web memorials and social network sites...... and different attitudes towards new online grief, mourning and remembrance designs, platforms, services and initiatives. By studying the spatial, material, and emotional practices of mourning, guidelines for death-in-design, as both practice and research are formed. Following this we argue that designers must...

  6. Mexico and the 21st Century Power Partnership (Fact Sheet)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-02-01

    The 21st Century Power Partnership's program in Mexico (21CPP Mexico) is one initiative of the Clean Energy Ministerial, carried out in cooperation with government and local stakeholders, drawing upon an international community of power system expertise. The overall goal of this program is to support Mexico's power system transformation by accelerating the transition to a reliable, financially robust, and low-carbon system. 21CPP Mexico activities focus on achieving positive outcomes for all participants, especially addressing critical questions and challenges facing policymakers, regulators, and system operators. In support of this goal, 21CPP Mexico taps into deep networks of expertise and professional connections.

  7. Tropical Warm Semi-Arid Regions Expanding Over Temperate Latitudes In The Projected 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajaud, A.; de Noblet, N. I.

    2015-12-01

    Two billion people today live in drylands, where extreme climatic conditions prevail, and natural resources are limited. Drylands are expected to expand under several scenarios of climatic change. However, relevant adaptation strategies need to account for the aridity level: it conditions the equilibrium tree-cover density, ranging from deserts (hyper-arid) to dense savannas (sub-humid). Here we focus on the evolution of climatically defined warm semi-arid areas, where low-tree density covers can be maintained. We study the global repartition of these regions in the future and the bioclimatic shifts involved. We adopted a bioclimatological approach based on the Köppen climate classification. The warm semi-arid class is characterized by mean annual temperatures over 18°C and a rainfall-limitation criterion. A multi-model ensemble of CMIP5 projections for three representative concentration pathways was selected to analyze future conditions. The classification was first applied to the start, middle and end of the 20th and 21st centuries, in order to localize past and future warm semi-arid regions. Then, time-series for the classification were built to characterize trends and variability in the evolution of those regions. According to the CRU datasets, global expansion of the warm semi-arid area has already started (~+13%), following the global warming trend since the 1900s. This will continue according to all projections, most significantly so outside the tropical belt. Under the "business as usual" scenario, the global warm semi-arid area will increase by 30% and expand 12° poleward in the Northern Hemisphere, according to the multi-model mean. Drying drives the conversion from equatorial sub-humid conditions. Beyond 30° of latitude, cold semi-arid conditions become warm semi-arid through warming, and temperate conditions through combined warming and drying processes. Those various transitions may have drastic but also very distinct ecological and sociological

  8. Tropospheric temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery in the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Hu

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Observations show a stabilization or a weak increase of the stratospheric ozone layer since the late 1990s. Recent coupled chemistry-climate model simulations predicted that the stratospheric ozone layer will likely return to pre-1980 levels in the middle of the 21st century, as a results of the decline of ozone depleting substances under the 1987 Montreal Protocol. Since the ozone layer is an important component in determining stratospheric and tropospheric-surface energy balance, the recovery of the ozone layer may have significant impact on tropospheric-surface climate. Here, using multi-model ensemble results from both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4 models and coupled chemistry-climate models, we show that as ozone recovery is considered, the troposphere is warmed more than that without considering ozone recovery, suggesting an enhancement of tropospheric warming due to ozone recovery. It is found that the enhanced tropospheric warming is mostly significant in the upper troposphere, with a global mean magnitude of ~0.41 K for 2001–2050. We also find that relatively large enhanced warming occurs in the extratropics and polar regions in summer and autumn in both hemispheres while the enhanced warming is stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. Enhanced warming is also found at the surface. The strongest enhancement of surface warming is located in the Arctic in boreal winter. The global annual mean enhancement of surface warming is about 0.16 K for 2001–2050.

  9. Efficacy of geoengineering to limit 21st century sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, J C; Jevrejeva, S; Grinsted, A

    2010-09-07

    Geoengineering has been proposed as a feasible way of mitigating anthropogenic climate change, especially increasing global temperatures in the 21st century. The two main geoengineering options are limiting incoming solar radiation, or modifying the carbon cycle. Here we examine the impact of five geoengineering approaches on sea level; SO(2) aerosol injection into the stratosphere, mirrors in space, afforestation, biochar, and bioenergy with carbon sequestration. Sea level responds mainly at centennial time scales to temperature change, and has been largely driven by anthropogenic forcing since 1850. Making use a model of sea-level rise as a function of time-varying climate forcing factors (solar radiation, volcanism, and greenhouse gas emissions) we find that sea-level rise by 2100 will likely be 30 cm higher than 2000 levels despite all but the most aggressive geoengineering under all except the most stringent greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The least risky and most desirable way of limiting sea-level rise is bioenergy with carbon sequestration. However aerosol injection or a space mirror system reducing insolation at an accelerating rate of 1 W m(-2) per decade from now to 2100 could limit or reduce sea levels. Aerosol injection delivering a constant 4 W m(-2) reduction in radiative forcing (similar to a 1991 Pinatubo eruption every 18 months) could delay sea-level rise by 40-80 years. Aerosol injection appears to fail cost-benefit analysis unless it can be maintained continuously, and damage caused by the climate response to the aerosols is less than about 0.6% Global World Product.

  10. Very Large Array Retooling for 21st-Century Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-02-01

    An international project to make the world's most productive ground-based telescope 10 times more capable has reached its halfway mark and is on schedule to provide astronomers with an extremely powerful new tool for exploring the Universe. The National Science Foundation's Very Large Array (VLA) radio telescope now has half of its giant, 230-ton dish antennas converted to use new, state-of-the-art digital electronics to replace analog equipment that has served since the facility's construction during the 1970s. VLA and Radio Galaxy VLA Antennas Getting Modern Electronics To Meet New Scientific Challenges CREDIT: NRAO/AUI/NSF Click on image for more information, higher-resolution files "We're taking a facility that has made landmark discoveries in astronomy for three decades and making it 10 times more powerful, at a cost that's a fraction of its total value, by replacing outdated technology with modern equipment," said Mark McKinnon, project manager for the Expanded VLA (EVLA). Rick Perley, EVLA project scientist, added: "When completed in 2012, the EVLA will be 10 times more sensitive, cover more frequencies, and provide far greater analysis capabilities than the current VLA. In addition, it will be much simpler to use, making its power available to a wider range of scientists." The EVLA will give scientists new power and flexibility to meet the numerous challenges of 21st-Century astrophysics. The increased sensitivity will reveal the earliest epochs of galaxy formation, back to within a billion years of the Big Bang, or 93 percent of the look-back time to the beginning of the Universe. It will have the resolution to peer deep into the dustiest star-forming clouds, imaging protoplanetary disks around young stars on scales approaching that of the formation of terrestrial planets. The EVLA will provide unique capabilities to study magnetic fields in the Universe, to image regions near massive black holes, and to systematically track changes in transient objects

  11. English Continues to Be the World StandardLanguage in the 21st Century

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭凤梅

    2004-01-01

    @@ The world is in various stages of social, economic, and demographic transition. Economically and politically, the world has changed more rapidly in the past few years than at any time since 1945. The emerging global economy is both competitive and interdependent. It reflects the availability of modern communications and production technologies in most parts of the world. So, do we need to be concerned about the future of the English language in the 21st century? According to The Economist (1996), English continues to be the world standard language, and there is no major threat to the language or to its global popularity. But, changes are coming.

  12. Is the Partner the Don Quixote of the 21st Century Corporate World?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bévort, Frans; Poulfelt, Flemming

    2015-01-01

    A large and growing proportion of the organizations in the contemporary knowledge economy are organized as professional partnerships as is the case of professional service firms (PSFs). As these firms have grown larger (e. g. Big4: Deloitte, PwC, E&Y, KPMG), the way of organizing is under pressure...... for change. This raises the question of whether the Partner ownership and management model is a relic of the past - and the partner a Don Quixote-figure of the 21st century corporate world? Based on an ethnographic study of a PSF in Denmark, and data from other sources, the paper analyzes the changing...

  13. Identifying 21st Century STEM Competencies Using Workplace Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, Hyewon

    2016-04-01

    Gaps between science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) education and required workplace skills have been identified in industry, academia, and government. Educators acknowledge the need to reform STEM education to better prepare students for their future careers. We pursue this growing interest in the skills needed for STEM disciplines and ask whether frameworks for 21st century skills and engineering education cover all of important STEM competencies. In this study, we identify important STEM competencies and evaluate the relevance of current frameworks applied in education using the standardized job-specific database operated and maintained by the US Department of Labor. Our analysis of the importance of 109 skills, types of knowledge and work activities, revealed 18 skills, seven categories of knowledge, and 27 work activities important for STEM workers. We investigate the perspectives of STEM and non-STEM job incumbents, comparing the importance of each skill, knowledge, and work activity for the two groups. We aimed to condense dimensions of the 52 key areas by categorizing them according to the Katz and Kahn (1978) framework and testing for inter-rater reliability. Our findings show frameworks for 21st century skills and engineering education do not encompass all important STEM competencies. Implications for STEM education programs are discussed, including how they can bridge gaps between education and important workplace competencies.

  14. Transforming Epidemiology for 21st Century Medicine and Public Health

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khoury, Muin J [National Institutes of Health; Lam, Tram Kim [National Institutes of Health; Ioannidis, John [Stanford University; Hartge, Patricia [National Institutes of Health; Spitz, Margaret R. [Baylor College of Medicine, Huston; Buring, Julie E. [Brigham and Women' s Hospital; Chanock, Stephen J. [National Institutes of Health; Tourassi, Georgia [ORNL; Zauber, Ann [Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center; Schully, Sheri D [National Institutes of Health

    2013-01-01

    n 2012, the National Cancer Institute (NCI) engaged the scientific community to provide a vision for cancer epidemiology in the 21st century. Eight overarching thematic recommendations, with proposed corresponding actions for consideration by funding agencies, professional societies, and the research community emerged from the collective intellectual discourse. The themes are (i) extending the reach of epidemiology beyond discovery and etiologic research to include multilevel analysis, intervention evaluation, implementation, and outcomes research; (ii) transforming the practice of epidemiology by moving toward more access and sharing of protocols, data, metadata, and specimens to foster collaboration, to ensure reproducibility and replication, and accelerate translation; (iii) expanding cohort studies to collect exposure, clinical, and other information across the life course and examining multiple health-related endpoints; (iv) developing and validating reliable methods and technologies to quantify exposures and outcomes on a massive scale, and to assess concomitantly the role of multiple factors in complex diseases; (v) integrating big data science into the practice of epidemiology; (vi) expanding knowledge integration to drive research, policy, and practice; (vii) transforming training of 21st century epidemiologists to address interdisciplinary and translational research; and (viii) optimizing the use of resources and infrastructure for epidemiologic studies. These recommendations can transform cancer epidemiology and the field of epidemiology, in general, by enhancing transparency, interdisciplinary collaboration, and strategic applications of new technologies. They should lay a strong scientific foundation for accelerated translation of scientific discoveries into individual and population health benefits.

  15. Transforming Pedagogies:
Integrating 21st Century Skills And Web 2.0 Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelia Y. TUCKER

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available According to (P21, Partnership for 21st Century Skills (n.d., unless the gap is bridged between how students learn and how they live, today’s education system will face irrelevance. The way people work and live has been transformed by demographic, economic, political, technological, and informational forces. Schools must adapt to these changing conditions in order to thrive. Students must be equipped to live in a multifaceted, multitasking, technology-driven world. And, regardless of their economic background, we must also ensure that all students have equal access to this new technological world. Collaborative learning theory which is connected to constructivism pedagogy requires students to work together to solve problems. Students need lifelong learning skills i.e., communication and information skills, problem-solving and thinking skills, and interpersonal and self-directional skills. The challenge becomes to deliberately incorporate learning skills into classrooms strategically and broadly. In this digital age, students must learn to use tools essential to everyday life and workplace productivity. They live in a world of almost unlimited streams of profound information, difficult choices and enormous opportunity. Teachers can create a 21st century context for learning by taking students out into the world, by bringing the world into the classroom, and by creating opportunities for students to collaboratively interact with each other (Learning for the, n.d.. One way of accomplishing this task is by employing the use of the Internet to connect Web 2.0 technology and 21st century skills. These skills are essential due to increased global competition, rising workforce capabilities, and accelerated technological change (Learning for the, n.d..

  16. Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Steinacher

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP and export of particulate organic carbon (EP are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite observations.

  17. Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Steinacher

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Changes in marine net primary productivity and export of particulate organic carbon are projected over the 21st century with three global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All three models show a decrease in global mean marine productivity and export production between 7 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all three models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in productivity and export of particulate organic carbon. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in primary and export production as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where two models project an increase in productivity while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observations compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer primary production from satellite observations.

  18. Tuberculosis: a new vision for the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Small, Peter M

    2009-11-01

    accelerate the development of new tools for the future. Simple improvements in tuberculosis control, such as expanding the use of under-utilized technologies, can have enormous impact. Fixed-dose combinations have existed for over 25 years, and could help ensure that more patients complete treatment; yet globally, only 15 percent of patients are using them. We also need new drugs, vaccines and diagnostics, as well as innovations in tuberculosis control and case management. Better diagnostics are already available, and new drugs and vaccines are coming. But more commitment and resources are needed. Better prevention and control of tuberculosis is the surest way to stop drug resistance. To ensure that drug resistance does not pose a wider threat, we need to employ a number of equally important approaches. These include improved basic tuberculosis control, increased use of underutilized technologies such as fixed-dose combinations, and new technologies and health systems innovations. At the same time, we should expand access to M/XDR-TB treatment and diagnostics for those who already have drug resistant tuberculosis. Some of the most innovative solutions can come from the private sector and through partnerships. An untapped market of two billion people carries the tuberculosis bacterium. Since tuberculosis requires a comprehensive approach, companies should also explore opportunities to work together and pool complementary technologies to ensure new tools are used most effectively. Japan is poised to play a leading role in the discovery, development and delivery of tuberculosis solutions in the 21st century.

  19. The space life sciences strategy for the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicogossian, A E; Gaiser, K K

    1992-06-01

    In the past, space life sciences has focused on gaining an understanding of physiological tolerance to spaceflight, but, for the last 10 years, the focus has evolved to include issues relevant to extended duration missions. In the 21st century, NASA's long-term strategy for the exploration of the solar system will combine the assurance of human health and performance for long periods in space with investigations aimed at searching for traces of life on other planets and acquiring fundamental scientific knowledge of life processes. Implementation of this strategy will involve a variety of disciplines including radiation health, life support, human factors, space physiology and countermeasures, medical care, environmental health, and exobiology. It will use both ground-based and flight research opportunities such as those found in current on-going programs, on Spacelab and unmanned biosatellite flights, and during Space Station Freedom missions.

  20. Surgical appreciation of Robert Boyle in the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, D L

    2000-12-01

    Robert Boyle was known as the Father of Chemistry. He lived at a time when science and religion were closely linked. It was a pious and puritanical time, but also a time of great enlightenment. His original and paramount thesis, that air has weight, has given us Boyle's gas law. Another of his writings in the Cowlishaw Collection is on religion. It is stated that, at one stage, he was deliberating whether to be a scientist or a priest. Surgical appreciation of Boyle's law has poignant application in scientific methods and research in the 21st century. The development of advanced laparoscopic surgery represents a challenging new era in surgery that was not envisaged by our surgical predecessors. Basic surgical research into the effects of gas pressure on renal function and bowel response will be presented.

  1. Reimagining Human Research Protections for 21st Century Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bietz, Matthew; Bae, Deborah; Bigby, Barbara; Devereaux, Mary; Fowler, James; Waldo, Ann; Weibel, Nadir; Patrick, Kevin; Klemmer, Scott; Melichar, Lori

    2016-01-01

    Background Evolving research practices and new forms of research enabled by technological advances require a redesigned research oversight system that respects and protects human research participants. Objective Our objective was to generate creative ideas for redesigning our current human research oversight system. Methods A total of 11 researchers and institutional review board (IRB) professionals participated in a January 2015 design thinking workshop to develop ideas for redesigning the IRB system. Results Ideas in 5 major domains were generated. The areas of focus were (1) improving the consent form and process, (2) empowering researchers to protect their participants, (3) creating a system to learn from mistakes, (4) improving IRB efficiency, and (5) facilitating review of research that leverages technological advances. Conclusions We describe the impetus for and results of a design thinking workshop to reimagine a human research protections system that is responsive to 21st century science. PMID:28007687

  2. YANJI CITY ORIENTATION AND INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS 21ST CENTURY

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Yanji is the biggest China Korean inhabited city. Based on a newly finished research project, this paper discusses strategic problems about Yanji towards 21st century. The general point of the authors is that at the beginning of new century,Yanji will play a more important role in Tumen River Delta development, regional economy cooperation in Korea Peninsula as well as Northeast Asia, and it will develop to be an important central city in this area. This paper puts forwards Yanji City′s developing goal, urban nature, and urban size, probes its regional orientation, and further probes how to establish The Yanji Urban Economy Cooperation Zone. The authors think that Yanji should depend on its intellect resources and other characteristic resources. Industry development need to pay much attention to modern agriculture, tertiary industry (especially commerce, trade and tourism) and dominant industries, and high-tech industry must give a special care, in order to establish a light industrial structure.

  3. Infection imaging with radiopharmaceuticals in the 21st century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Das, Satya S.; Wareham, David W. [St. Bartholomew' s Hospital, London (United Kingdom). Dept. of Medical Microbiology; Britton, Keith E. [St. Bartholomew' s Hospital, London (United Kingdom). Dept. of Nuclear Medicine; Hall, Anne V. [Harefield Hospital, Middlesex (United Kingdom). Microbiology Dept.

    2002-09-01

    Infection continues to be a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Nuclear medicine has an important role in aiding the diagnosis of particularly deep-seated infections such as abscesses, osteomyelitis, septic arthritis, endocarditis, and infections of prosthetic devices. Established techniques such as radiolabelled leucocytes are sensitive and specific for inflammation but do not distinguish between infective and non-infective inflammation. The challenge for Nuclear Medicine in infection imaging in the 21st century is to build on the recent trend towards the development of more infection specific radiopharmaceuticals, such as radiolabelled anti-infectives (e.g. 99 m Tc ciprofloxacin). In addition to aiding early diagnosis of infection, through serial imaging these agents might prove very useful in monitoring the response to and determining the optimum duration of anti-infective therapy. This article reviews the current approach to infection imaging with radiopharmaceuticals nd the future direction it might take. (author)

  4. Infection imaging with radiopharmaceuticals in the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Das Satya S.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Infection continues to be a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Nuclear medicine has an important role in aiding the diagnosis of particularly deep-seated infections such as abscesses, osteomyelitis, septic arthritis, endocarditis, and infections of prosthetic devices. Established techniques such as radiolabelled leucocytes are sensitive and specific for inflammation but do not distinguish between infective and non-infective inflammation. The challenge for Nuclear medicine in infection imaging in the 21st century is to build on the recent trend towards the development of more infection specific radiopharmaceuticals, such as radiolabelled anti-infectives (e.g. 99mTc- ciprofloxacin. In addition to aiding early diagnosis of infection, through serial imaging these agents might prove very useful in monitoring the response to and determining the optimum duration of anti-infective therapy. This article reviews the current approach to infection imaging with radiopharmaceuticals and the future direction it might take.

  5. The good doctor: professionalism in the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsou, Amy Y; Creutzfeldt, Claire J; Gordon, James M

    2013-01-01

    Medical professionalism faces distinctive challenges in the 21st century. In this chapter, we review the history of professionalism, address specific challenges physicians face today, and provide an overview of efforts to address these issues, including behavioral and virtue ethics approaches. First, we discuss core features professions share and the development of codes of medical ethics that guide the practice of western medicine. Second, we address challenges related to the doctor-patient relationship, continuity of care, cultural competence, conflicts of interest, and the regulation of quality of care through maintenance of certification. We then explore three cultural trajectories that have deeply influenced medical practice: the technologic imperative, physicians' collective neglect of structural factors impacting medicine, and the rise of commercialism. Finally, we describe efforts to address these challenges, focusing on the Physician Charter developed by the American Board of Internal Medicine and widely endorsed by medical boards and societies internationally.

  6. Designing blended learning interventions for the 21st century student.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eagleton, Saramarie

    2017-06-01

    The learning requirements of diverse groups of students in higher education challenge educators to design learning interventions that meet the need of 21st century students. A model was developed to assist lecturers, especially those that are new to the profession, to use a blended approach to design meaningful learning interventions for physiology. The aim of the model is to encourage methodical development of learning interventions, while the purpose is to provide conceptual and communication tools that can be used to develop appropriate operational learning interventions. A whole brain approach that encourages challenging the four quadrants is encouraged. The main arguments of the model are to first determine the learning task requirements, as these will inform the design and development of learning interventions to facilitate learning and the assessment thereof. Delivery of the content is based on a blended approach.

  7. Identifying 21st century STEM competencies using workplace data

    CERN Document Server

    Jang, Hyewon

    2015-01-01

    Gaps between Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) education and required workplace skills have been identified in industry, academia, and government. Educators acknowledge the need to reform STEM education to better prepare students for their future careers. We pursue this growing interest in the skills needed for STEM disciplines and ask whether frameworks for 21st century skills and engineering education cover all of important STEM competencies. In this study, we identify important STEM competencies and evaluate the relevance of current frameworks applied in education using the standardized job-specific database operated and maintained by the United States Department of Labor. Our analysis of the importance of 109 skills, types of knowledge and work activities, revealed 18 skills, seven categories of knowledge, and 27 work activities important for STEM workers. We investigate the perspectives of STEM and non-STEM job incumbents, comparing the importance of each skill, knowledge, and work...

  8. Sustainable leadership pre- and within the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bloodless Dzwairo

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews literature on sustainable leadership pre- and within the 21st century, using the following nuances: (1 selected dynamics attributable to socio-demographics, (2 implications and barriers that skew gender and leadership bias, and (3 the role of cultural norms and values in leadership practices and processes within organizations. The global challenge for research on sustainable leadership is also discussed, as it must take into account the different cultures, needs and requirements of different organizations within specific environmental contexts. A challenge spoke to the use of international models and strategies in order to achieve semantic interoperability. It is concluded that from the established theoretical framework, a focus on culture and sustainable leadership is needed, as these impact on various aspects of leadership including sustainability. It is suggested that for the future, emerging issues should incorporate sustainability into businesses in order to align environmental and social objectives with business strategies.

  9. Designing Complex Systems for the 21st Century

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2011-01-01

    organization with conflicting goals, and the difficulty in understanding the socio-technical interfaces. Classical systems engineering approaches which focus on processes for cascading engineering requirements from higher to lower system levels is no longer suited to dealing with the global and socio......-technical aspects of the 21st century complex systems. This presentation will first explore the research challenges and opportunities in designing complex “engineered” systems, and then focus on two specific topics in this area, i.e., (1) design of multiscale systems and (2) integrating heterogeneous consumer...... preference into enterprise-driven product design. Research in multiscale design presents the significant benefits of using computational design techniques for designing novel materials, new products, and new processes with exceptional system performance across diverse application domains such as material...

  10. Assessment of 21st century drought conditions at Shasta Dam based on dynamically projected water supply conditions by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trinh, T; Ishida, K; Kavvas, M L; Ercan, A; Carr, K

    2017-05-15

    Along with socioeconomic developments, and population increase, natural disasters around the world have recently increased the awareness of harmful impacts they cause. Among natural disasters, drought is of great interest to scientists due to the extraordinary diversity of their severity and duration. Motivated by the development of a potential approach to investigate future possible droughts in a probabilistic framework based on climate change projections, a methodology to consider thirteen future climate projections based on four emission scenarios to characterize droughts is presented. The proposed approach uses a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology model (Watershed Environmental Hydrology Hydro-Climate Model; WEHY-HCM) to generate thirteen equally likely future water supply projections. The water supply projections were compared to the current water demand for the detection of drought events and estimation of drought properties. The procedure was applied to Shasta Dam watershed to analyze drought conditions at the watershed outlet, Shasta Dam. The results suggest an increasing water scarcity at Shasta Dam with more severe and longer future drought events in some future scenarios. An important advantage of the proposed approach to the probabilistic analysis of future droughts is that it provides the drought properties of the 100-year and 200-year return periods without resorting to any extrapolation of the frequency curve. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. 21st Century Science for Sustainable Development in the Developing World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sachs, J. D.

    2004-12-01

    Meeting the Millennium Development Goals and, ultimately, eradicating extreme poverty, engages experts from many academic disciplines and different parts of society- climatologists, earth engineers, ecologists, economists, public health specialists, social activists, and politicians. We are in the midst of exciting technological and scientific breakthroughs that make it realistic to end extreme poverty by 2025. Indeed, the experiences of China and India in recent years have illustrated that technology can accelerate economic development to impressively high rates. India, which boasts growth rates of nearly 8% over the past decade, may end hunger among its population as early as 2007, thanks in large part to the Green Revolution underway there. The work of agronomists and economists are not unrelated - the science behind soil nutrients, water, and germplasm all fuel sustainable development. Science and technology are important ingredients for growth, and they are improving at an ever-increasing rate. When applied for the sake of human benefit, we have a tool of unprecedented strength. But the developing world has also reached a point of unprecedented environmental stress. Biodiversity faces serious threats, as do water supplies, forests, and the atmosphere. Developing and developed nations continue to grapple with the consequences of greenhouse gas emissions. We must maintain our scientific investigations and analysis while ensuring that development policy addresses long-term environmental needs. The energy sector is one obvious example. Several developing countries, China and India included, harbor vast coal deposits. Fueling development with coal will drastically exacerbate the ongoing spiral of man-made climate change. My presentation will focus on the contributions that 21st century science can make-indeed, must make-to ensure that sustainable development occurs and we meet the Millennium Challenge of cutting extreme poverty in half by 2015.

  12. The Large Marine Ecosystem Approach for 21st Century Ocean Health and International Sustainable Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honey, K. T.

    2014-12-01

    The global coastal ocean and watersheds are divided into 66 Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs), which encompass regions from river basins, estuaries, and coasts to the seaward boundaries of continental shelves and margins of major currents. Approximately 80% of global fisheries catch comes from LME waters. Ecosystem goods and services from LMEs contribute an estimated US 18-25 trillion dollars annually to the global economy in market and non-market value. The critical importance of these large-scale systems, however, is threatened by human populations and pressures, including climate change. Fortunately, there is pragmatic reason for optimism. Interdisciplinary frameworks exist, such as the Large Marine Ecosystem (LME) approach for adaptive management that can integrate both nature-centric and human-centric views into ecosystem monitoring, assessment, and adaptive management practices for long-term sustainability. Originally proposed almost 30 years ago, the LME approach rests on five modules are: (i) productivity, (ii) fish and fisheries, (iii) pollution and ecosystem health, (iv) socioeconomics, and (v) governance for iterative adaptive management at a large, international scale of 200,000 km2 or greater. The Global Environment Facility (GEF), World Bank, and United Nations agencies recognize and support the LME approach—as evidenced by over 3.15 billion in financial assistance to date for LME projects. This year of 2014 is an exciting milestone in LME history, after 20 years of the United Nations and GEF organizations adopting LMEs as a unit for ecosystem-based approaches to management. The LME approach, however, is not perfect. Nor is it immutable. Similar to the adaptive management framework it propones, the LME approach itself must adapt to new and emerging 21st Century technologies, science, and realities. The LME approach must further consider socioeconomics and governance. Within the socioeconomics module alone, several trillion-dollar opportunities exist

  13. THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MORFO AS A COMMUNICATION ENHANCEMENT TOOL IN 21ST CENTURY LEARNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chandra Reka Ramachandiran

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Learning has changed in the 21st Century. The learning process is no longer confined to the classroom alone, but extends to a global classroom. Students now use instructional technologies to synthesize newly acquired knowledge, collaborate with peers, solve problems, and formulate correct decisions. Therefore, communication becomes a vital process to ensure that learning takes place. Although it has been shown that effective two-way communication between the instructor and the learner is important to attain sustainability in the learning environment, it is a difficult task to meet. Different learning rates and styles were identified as the core factors that led to this difficulty. Hence, the need arises to meet the demand of the 21st Century Learning via the implementation of an effective learning tool. In response to these changes, this research aims to assess the student’s performance and the association between the learner’s performance and positive communication skills. A total of 18 undergraduate students from an Institutions of Higher Education (IHE participated in this case study. The results of the study indicated that Morfo can efficiently assess communication skills in an introductory computing course. It is also reported that the respondents were able to engage in higher-order thinking tasks such as analysis, synthesis, and evaluation via Morfo reflecting their individuality and enhancing their communication skills. Besides that, the findings also suggest that there is a significant association between the communication skills and the learner’s individual performance.

  14. Translating Big Data into Big Climate Ideas: Communicating Future Climate Scenarios to Increase Interdisciplinary Engagement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change has emerged as the significant environmental challenge of the 21st century. Therefore, understanding our changing world has forced researchers from many different fields of science to join together to tackle complicated research questions. The climate change resear...

  15. Translating Big Data into Big Climate Ideas: Communicating Future Climate Scenarios to Increase Interdisciplinary Engagement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change has emerged as the significant environmental challenge of the 21st century. Therefore, understanding our changing world has forced researchers from many different fields of science to join together to tackle complicated research questions. The climate change resear...

  16. The sea level fingerprint of 21st century ice mass fluxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Bamber

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The sea level contribution from glacial sources has been accelerating during the 21st century (Meier et al., 2007; Velicogna, 2009. This contribution is not distributed uniformly across the world's oceans due to both oceanographic and gravitational effects. We compute the sea level signature of 21st century ice mass fluxes due to changes in the gravity field, Earth's rotation and related effects. Mass loss from Greenland results in a relative sea level (RSL reduction for much of North Western Europe and Eastern Canada. RSL rise from this source is concentrated around South America. Losses in West Antarctica marginally compensate for this and produce maxima along the coastlines of North America, Australia and Oceania. The combined far-field pattern of wastage from all ice melt sources, is dominated by losses from the ice sheets and results in maxima at latitudes between 20° N and 40° S across the Pacific and Indian Oceans, affecting particularly vulnerable land masses in Oceania. The spatial pattern of RSL variations due to the observed ice mass loss is temporally invariant. Thus, sea level rise, based on the land ice losses considered here, will be amplified for this sensitive region.

  17. Creating a 21st Century Community through the Teacher Research Experience (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkening, E.; Beine, H. J.

    2009-12-01

    In the spring of 2009, I participated in PolarTREC - Teachers and Researchers Exploring and Collaborating, a Teacher Research Experience (TRE) funded by the National Science Foundation and managed by the Arctic Research Consortium of the United States. I assisted in hands-on research being performed by scientists with OASIS (Ocean, Atmosphere, Sea Ice and Snowpack) during their field campaign in Barrow, Alaska. Although I was in the field for only 3 weeks, it was merely a beginning to a transformation that took place not only in me, but also among all of those involved. The PolarTREC program embodies the principles fundamental to the 21st Century skill-set that we want our students to possess. The job market is changing for graduates, and education is striving to provide students with the skills necessary to thrive in the future. To ensure the success of students the International Society for Technology Education (ISTE) has defined 21st Century Skills. They are incorporated into many educational standards (such as the Arizona Educational Technology Standards) and they are practiced by the teachers, researchers, students and the PolarTREC community. They are: Creativity and Innovation Communication and Collaboration Research and Information Literacy Critical Thinking, Problem Solving, and Decision Making Digital Citizenship Technology Operations and Concepts

  18. Decay of deep water convection in CMIP5 GCMs in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molodtsov, S.; Anis, A.; Marinov, I.; Cabre, A.

    2016-12-01

    Contemporary changes in the climate system due to anthropogenic activity have already resulted in unprecedented melting rates of the polar ice caps. This in turn may have a significant impact on the thermohaline circulation in the future. The freshening of the surface waters increases stable stratification in regions of deep water formation, eventually triggering a weakening and, ultimately, may bring to a cessation of deep convection in these regions. Here we present comparatively an analysis of the response of deep convective processes in the North Atlantic (NA) and Southern Ocean (SO) to anthropogenic forcing using output from the latest generation of Earth System Models (ESM), part of the CMIP5 intercomparison. Our findings indicate an attenuation of deep convection by the end of the 21st century from ESM simulations under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario when compared to the years under historical scenario in both NA and SO. The average depth of the mixed layer in the regions studied during March/September, the months with maximum mixed layer depths in the NA/SO, respectively, was found to decrease dramatically by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, the increase in stratification and decrease in mixed layer depths, resulting in the decay of deep convection, leads to accumulation of excess heat, previously released during the convection events, in the ocean interior in both regions.

  19. Boreal and temperate snow cover variations induced by black carbon emissions in the middle of the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ménégoz

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available We used a coupled climate-chemistry model to quantify the impacts of aerosols on snow cover north of 30° N both for the present-day and for the middle of the 21st century. Black carbon (BC deposition over continents induces a reduction in the mean number of days with snow at the surface (MNDWS that ranges from 0 to 10 days over large areas of Eurasia and Northern America for the present-day relative to the pre-industrial period. This is mainly due to BC deposition during the spring, a period of the year when the remaining of snow accumulated during the winter is exposed to both strong solar radiation and a large amount of aerosol deposition induced themselves by a high level of transport of particles from polluted areas. North of 30° N, this deposition flux represents 222 Gg BC month−1 on average from April to June in our simulation. A large reduction in BC emissions is expected in the future in all of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP scenarios. In particular, considering the RCP8.5 in our simulation leads to a decrease in the spring BC deposition down to 110 Gg month−1 in the 2050s. However, despite the reduction of the aerosol impact on snow, the MNDWS is strongly reduced by 2050, with a decrease ranging from 10 to 100 days from present-day values over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. This reduction is essentially due to temperature increase, which is quite strong in the RCP8.5 scenario in the absence of climate mitigation policies. Moreover, the projected sea-ice retreat in the next decades will open new routes for shipping in the Arctic. However, a large increase in shipping emissions in the Arctic by the mid-21st century does not lead to significant changes of BC deposition over snow-covered areas in our simulation. Therefore, the MNDWS is clearly not affected through snow darkening effects associated with these Arctic ship emissions. In an experiment without nudging toward atmospheric reanalyses, we simulated

  20. Boreal and temperate snow cover variations induced by black carbon emissions in the middle of the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ménégoz, M.; Krinner, G.; Balkanski, Y.; Cozic, A.; Boucher, O.; Ciais, P.

    2013-03-01

    We used a coupled climate-chemistry model to quantify the impacts of aerosols on snow cover north of 30° N both for the present-day and for the middle of the 21st century. Black carbon (BC) deposition over continents induces a reduction in the mean number of days with snow at the surface (MNDWS) that ranges from 0 to 10 days over large areas of Eurasia and Northern America for the present-day relative to the pre-industrial period. This is mainly due to BC deposition during the spring, a period of the year when the remaining of snow accumulated during the winter is exposed to both strong solar radiation and a large amount of aerosol deposition induced themselves by a high level of transport of particles from polluted areas. North of 30° N, this deposition flux represents 222 Gg BC month-1 on average from April to June in our simulation. A large reduction in BC emissions is expected in the future in all of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. In particular, considering the RCP8.5 in our simulation leads to a decrease in the spring BC deposition down to 110 Gg month-1 in the 2050s. However, despite the reduction of the aerosol impact on snow, the MNDWS is strongly reduced by 2050, with a decrease ranging from 10 to 100 days from present-day values over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. This reduction is essentially due to temperature increase, which is quite strong in the RCP8.5 scenario in the absence of climate mitigation policies. Moreover, the projected sea-ice retreat in the next decades will open new routes for shipping in the Arctic. However, a large increase in shipping emissions in the Arctic by the mid-21st century does not lead to significant changes of BC deposition over snow-covered areas in our simulation. Therefore, the MNDWS is clearly not affected through snow darkening effects associated with these Arctic ship emissions. In an experiment without nudging toward atmospheric reanalyses, we simulated however some changes of

  1. 76 FR 48797 - Notice of the Advisory Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-09

    ... Agricultural Research Service Notice of the Advisory Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture... on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture (AC21). DATES: August 30-31, 2011. ADDRESSES: Rooms... consists of members representing the biotechnology industry, the organic food industry, farming...

  2. 77 FR 26725 - Advisory Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-07

    ...; ] DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Advisory Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture Meeting AGENCY... Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture (AC21). DATES: The meeting dates are May 29-30, 2012, 8:30 a.m. to 5... consists of members representing the biotechnology industry, the organic food industry, farming...

  3. 77 FR 46681 - Advisory Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture; Notice of Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-06

    ...; ] DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Advisory Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture; Notice of Meeting... meeting of the Advisory Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture (AC21). DATES: The meeting... the biotechnology industry, the organic food industry, farming communities, the seed industry,...

  4. 77 FR 11064 - Notice of the Advisory Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-24

    ... Agricultural Research Service Notice of the Advisory Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture... Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture (AC21). DATES: The meeting dates are March 5-6, 2012..., 2012. The AC21 consists of members representing the biotechnology industry, the organic food...

  5. Leading the 21st-century academic library successful strategies for envisioning and realizing preferred futures

    CERN Document Server

    Eden, Bradford Lee

    2015-01-01

    Leading the 21st Century Academic Library: Successful Strategies for Envisioning and Realizing Preferred Futures will explore the new roles and directions academic libraries are taking in the 21st century as a consequence of visionary leadership in exploring diverse futures.

  6. Challenges to learning and schooling in the digital networked world of the 21st century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voogt, Joke; Erstad, O.; Dede, C.; Mishra, P.

    2013-01-01

    This article elaborates on the competencies, often referred to as 21st century competencies, that are needed to be able to live in and contribute to our current (and future) society. We begin by describing, analysing and reflecting on international frameworks describing 21st century competencies,

  7. Intelligent manufacture adapts to agile manufacture production mode in the 21st century

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Xurong

    2003-01-01

    The paper describes the characteristics of the intelligent manufacturing system and production mode in the21st century in the information age, therefore draws a conclusion that the intelligent manufacturing system adapts to agilemanufacture (AM for short) production mode in the 21 st century.

  8. Assessing 21st Century Skills: A Guide to Evaluating Mastery and Authentic Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenstein, Laura

    2012-01-01

    The Common Core State Standards clearly define the skills students need for success in college and the 21st century workplace. The question is, how can you measure student mastery of skills like creativity, problem solving, and use of technology? Laura Greenstein demonstrates how teachers can teach and assess 21st century skills using authentic…

  9. Teaching 21st Century Competencies: Lessons from Crescent Girls' School in Singapore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trinidad, Gucci; Patel, Deepa; Shear, Linda; Goh, Peishi; Quek, Yin Kang; Tan, Chen Kee

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents case studies of two teachers at Crescent Girl's School (an all-girls high school in Singapore) who implemented strategies learned through a teacher professional development program called 21st Century Learning Design (21CLD). Policymakers often state requirements for teachers to focus on 21st century (21C) competencies without…

  10. Access to Attainment: An Access Agenda for 21st Century College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Abby; Valle, Katherine; Engle, Jennifer; Cooper, Michelle

    2014-01-01

    This report, "Access to Attainment: An Access Agenda for 21st Century College Students," examines the challenges facing 21st century students and presents strategies for addressing these challenges through policy-and practice-based solutions at the institutional, state and national levels. Recommendations include implementing a…

  11. Assessing 21st Century Skills: A Guide to Evaluating Mastery and Authentic Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenstein, Laura

    2012-01-01

    The Common Core State Standards clearly define the skills students need for success in college and the 21st century workplace. The question is, how can you measure student mastery of skills like creativity, problem solving, and use of technology? Laura Greenstein demonstrates how teachers can teach and assess 21st century skills using authentic…

  12. Challenges to Learning and Schooling in the Digital Networked World of the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voogt, J.; Erstad, O.; Dede, C.; Mishra, P.

    2013-01-01

    This article elaborates on the competencies, often referred to as 21st century competencies, that are needed to be able to live in and contribute to our current (and future) society. We begin by describing, analysing and reflecting on international frameworks describing 21st century competencies, giving special attention to digital literacy as one…

  13. Virtual Constructions: Developing a Teacher Voice in the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casey, Heather

    2011-01-01

    This article explores the development of teacher identity in the 21st century. The simple way to describe this discussion of identity is that it is complex. In an attempt to unpack this complexity, this article begins with a discussion of definitions of teacher identity; then links that discussion to the literature on how 21st-century web 2.0…

  14. Challenges to Learning and Schooling in the Digital Networked World of the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voogt, J.; Erstad, O.; Dede, C.; Mishra, P.

    2013-01-01

    This article elaborates on the competencies, often referred to as 21st century competencies, that are needed to be able to live in and contribute to our current (and future) society. We begin by describing, analysing and reflecting on international frameworks describing 21st century competencies, giving special attention to digital literacy as one…

  15. Challenges to learning and schooling in the digital networked world of the 21st century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voogt, Joke; Erstad, O.; Dede, C.; Mishra, P.

    2013-01-01

    This article elaborates on the competencies, often referred to as 21st century competencies, that are needed to be able to live in and contribute to our current (and future) society. We begin by describing, analysing and reflecting on international frameworks describing 21st century competencies, gi

  16. 21st Century Learning: Law-Related Education in South Tucson

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golston, Syd

    2008-01-01

    This article describes the Partnership for 21st Century Skills. This Arizona high school magnet law program offers the ideal 21st century education--one that teaches skills through core subjects and interdisciplinary themes, uses innovative learning methods, and emphasizes higher order thinking skills. Students agree that the program has helped…

  17. Challenges to learning and schooling in the digital networked world of the 21st century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voogt, J.M.; Erstad, O.; Dede, C.; Mishra, P.

    2013-01-01

    This article elaborates on the competencies, often referred to as 21st century competencies, that are needed to be able to live in and contribute to our current (and future) society. We begin by describing, analysing and reflecting on international frameworks describing 21st century competencies, gi

  18. Kinesiology Faculty for the 21st Century: Steping into the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    DePauw, Karen P.

    2014-01-01

    Kinesiology faculty for the 21st century was one of the featured strands of the 2014 NAKHE Collaborative Congress: "STEPS into the future: Exploring opportunities and facing the challenges for the 21st century." Following a brief introduction delegates were assigned to discussion groups with conversations focused around six…

  19. Arctic marine mammal population status, sea ice habitat loss, and conservation recommendations for the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laidre, Kristin L; Stern, Harry; Kovacs, Kit M; Lowry, Lloyd; Moore, Sue E; Regehr, Eric V; Ferguson, Steven H; Wiig, Øystein; Boveng, Peter; Angliss, Robyn P; Born, Erik W; Litovka, Dennis; Quakenbush, Lori; Lydersen, Christian; Vongraven, Dag; Ugarte, Fernando

    2015-06-01

    Arctic marine mammals (AMMs) are icons of climate change, largely because of their close association with sea ice. However, neither a circumpolar assessment of AMM status nor a standardized metric of sea ice habitat change is available. We summarized available data on abundance and trend for each AMM species and recognized subpopulation. We also examined species diversity, the extent of human use, and temporal trends in sea ice habitat for 12 regions of the Arctic by calculating the dates of spring sea ice retreat and fall sea ice advance from satellite data (1979-2013). Estimates of AMM abundance varied greatly in quality, and few studies were long enough for trend analysis. Of the AMM subpopulations, 78% (61 of 78) are legally harvested for subsistence purposes. Changes in sea ice phenology have been profound. In all regions except the Bering Sea, the duration of the summer (i.e., reduced ice) period increased by 5-10 weeks and by >20 weeks in the Barents Sea between 1979 and 2013. In light of generally poor data, the importance of human use, and forecasted environmental changes in the 21st century, we recommend the following for effective AMM conservation: maintain and improve comanagement by local, federal, and international partners; recognize spatial and temporal variability in AMM subpopulation response to climate change; implement monitoring programs with clear goals; mitigate cumulative impacts of increased human activity; and recognize the limits of current protected species legislation.

  20. The 21st Century Cures Act: pharmacoeconomic boon or bane?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza, Roger Lee

    2017-04-01

    Barriers to entry in healthcare markets constitute one of the overriding concerns of health economists. The recent enactment of the 21st Century Cures Act in the United States reduces statutory entry barriers to the discovery, development, testing, and licensing of drugs and medical devices. Drug and device makers also see the burdensome and time-consuming requirements of the Food and Drug Administration?s approval process as key barriers to lowering the costs of their products, considering it takes a decade of research amounting to $1 billion just to bring a single drug to the market. Along with novel opportunities for medical product innovation and faster treatment of diseases, the expedited approval process carries with it contentious challenges involving the safety, efficacy and value of drugs and devices. The ensuing trade-offs and unintended consequences of such a regulatory game-changer bring to the fore one of the most enduring debates between medicine and economics: Whether - or to what extent - cost and efficiency factors affect clinical inquiry into possible solutions to human illnesses. The practical and theoretical contributions of pharmacoeconomics should enlighten contemporary and future issues and discussions surrounding the implementation of this landmark legislation. After all, despite its undeniably good intent and far-reaching significance, no law can ever be perfect.

  1. Opportunities for natural products in 21(st) century antibiotic discovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Gerard D

    2017-07-01

    Natural products and their derivatives are mainstays of our antibiotic drugs, but they are increasingly in peril. The combination of widespread multidrug resistance in once susceptible bacterial pathogens, disenchantment with natural products as sources of new drugs, lack of success using synthetic compounds and target-based discovery methods, along with shifting economic and regulatory issues, conspire to move investment in research and development away from the antibiotics arena. The result is a growing crisis in antibiotic drug discovery that threatens modern medicine. 21(st) century natural product research is perfectly positioned to fill the antibiotic discovery gap and bring new drug candidates to the clinic. Innovations in genomics and techniques to explore new sources of antimicrobial chemical matter are revealing new chemistry. Increasing appreciation of the value of narrow-spectrum drugs and re-examination of once discarded chemical scaffolds coupled with synthetic biology methods to generate new compounds and improve yields offer new strategies to revitalize once moribund natural product programs. The increasing awareness that the combination of antibiotics with adjuvants, non-antibiotic compounds that overcome resistance and enhance drug activity, can rescue older chemical scaffolds, and concepts such as blocking pathogen virulence present orthogonal strategies to traditional antibiotics. In all these areas, natural products offer chemical matter, shaped by natural selection, that is privileged in this therapeutic area. Natural product research is poised to regain prominence in delivering new drugs to solve the antibiotic crisis.

  2. Civilian Power from Space in the Early 21st Century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hyde, R; Ishikawa, M; Wood, L

    2003-06-01

    If power beamed from space is to be become widely used on Earth in the first half of the 21St century, several thus-far-persistent impediments must be obviated, including threshold effects and problematic aspects of cost, availability, reliability, hazards and environmental impacts. We sketch a generally-applicable route to doing so, noting key enabling technologies and practical features. Likely-essential features of any successful strategy include vigorous, systematic leveraging of all intrinsic features of space-derived power, e.g., addressing marginal, high-value-added markets for electric power in space- and time-agile manners to conveniently provide power-upon-demand, and incrementally ''wedging'' into ever-larger markets with ever more cost-efficient generations and scales of technology. We suggest that no prudent strategic plan will rely upon large-scale, long-term public subsidies--fiscal, regulatory, etc.--with their attendant ''sovereign risks'' and interminable delays, and that plan-essential governmental support likely will be limited to early feasibility demonstrations, provision of threshold technologies and a rational, competition-neutral licensing environment. If salient realities are uniformly respected and accessible technologies are intelligently leveraged, electricity derived from space-sourced power-beams may come into significant civilian use during the latter part of the first quarter of this century, and may become widely used by the half-century point.

  3. Neglected Basal Cell Carcinomas in the 21st Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erika Varga

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Although tumors on the surface of the skin are considered to be easily recognizable, neglected advanced skin neoplasms are encountered even in the 21st century. There can be numerous causes of the delay in the diagnosis: fear of the diagnosis and the treatment, becoming accustomed to a slowly growing tumor, old age, a low social milieu, and an inadequate hygienic culture are among the factors leading some people not to seek medical advice. The treatment of such advanced neoplasms is usually challenging. The therapy of neglected cases demands an individual multidisciplinary approach and teamwork. Basal cell carcinoma (BCC, the most common cutaneous tumor, usually develops in the elderly, grows slowly, and has an extremely low metastatic potential; these factors are suggesting that BCCs might well be the “ideal candidates” for neglected tumors. Five neglected advanced cases of BCC were diagnosed in our dermatological institute between 2000 and 2009. The clinical characteristics and treatment modalities of these neoplasms are discussed, together with the possible causes of the neglect.

  4. State, nation and democracy on the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nidia Catherine González Piñeros

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes the relationship between State and Nation in the recent events in Japan and Bolivia, cases in which the universally shared ideas about development and democracy are met with the common criteria for the majority of the countries in the world. This relationship is analyzed comparing the particularities of each context regarding the concepts mentioned. Japan, despite being considered as an economically developed country, is criticized for its lack of exercise of democratic, popular politics. That country, despite being in the 21st century, remains a constitutional monarchy. Thus, given the catastrophic episode from March, 2011, the destiny of the citizens was defined by the imperial family. Bolivia, for its part, since the beginning of this century has managed a national reconstruction that has re-founded the Constitution and, therefore, the nation and the State. However, this democratic reorganization now faces a number of dilemmas where the State is debating between democracy and authoritarianism, as well as between liberal development and development from a communal perspective.

  5. An animal protection perspective on 21st century toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Martin L

    2010-02-01

    The Humane Society of the United States (HSUS) strongly endorses the vision for the future of toxicity testing proposed in the 2007 National Research Council report Toxicity Testing in the 21st Century. Although crafted primarily with the aim of better assessing the public health risks from chemical exposures, the vision would have a major impact on advancing both alternative testing methods and animal welfare. Consequently, The HSUS seeks to have the vision implemented expeditiously. The HSUS is pleased that the report has elicited considerable discussion and debate and garnered a certain level of approval and applaud current implementation efforts. However, these efforts do not fully capture the vision and strategy outlined by the NRC. The HSUS believes that the timely implementation of the NRC vision warrants a large-scale "Human Toxicology Project" akin to the Human Genome Project of the late 20th century. The HSUS spearheaded the formation of the Human Toxicology Project Consortium to help marshal the necessary will, funding, and research for this effort. Our sister organization, the Humane Society International, is embarking on a related effort with European partners. The HSUS cofounded a website, AltTox.org, devoted exclusively to the scientific and policy issues central to advancing nonanimal methods of toxicity testing. The NRC report has provided a unified framework by which to systematically incorporate the fruits of modern biology and technology into hazard identification and risk assessment, to the betterment not only of toxicity testing and public health, but also of animal protection.

  6. Biosurfactants: Multifunctional Biomolecules of the 21st Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danyelle Khadydja F. Santos

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In the era of global industrialisation, the exploration of natural resources has served as a source of experimentation for science and advanced technologies, giving rise to the manufacturing of products with high aggregate value in the world market, such as biosurfactants. Biosurfactants are amphiphilic microbial molecules with hydrophilic and hydrophobic moieties that partition at liquid/liquid, liquid/gas or liquid/solid interfaces. Such characteristics allow these biomolecules to play a key role in emulsification, foam formation, detergency and dispersal, which are desirable qualities in different industries. Biosurfactant production is considered one of the key technologies for development in the 21st century. Besides exerting a strong positive impact on the main global problems, biosurfactant production has considerable importance to the implantation of sustainable industrial processes, such as the use of renewable resources and “green” products. Biodegradability and low toxicity have led to the intensification of scientific studies on a wide range of industrial applications for biosurfactants in the field of bioremediation as well as the petroleum, food processing, health, chemical, agricultural and cosmetic industries. In this paper, we offer an extensive review regarding knowledge accumulated over the years and advances achieved in the incorporation of biomolecules in different industries.

  7. Cyberbullying: a 21st Century Health Care Phenomenon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Jemica M; Wilson, Feleta L

    2015-01-01

    This study examined bullying and cyberbullying prevalence among 367 adolescents 10 to 18 years of age who were attending schools and community organizations in suburban and urban neighborhoods in the Midwest United States. The correlational design investigated adolescents' daily use of technology that could be used to cyberbully peers, such as cell phones, computers, email, and the Internet. Results showed that 30% of participants had been bullied during school, and 17% had been cyberbullied, with online social networking sites the most common media employed (68%). The majority of participants owned or had access to computers (92%), email accounts (88%), social networking accounts (e.g., Facebook or MySpace) (82%), and cell phones (79%). Daily technology use included an average of two hours on a computer and a median of 71 text messages per day. Logistic regression analysis revealed no significant differences in bullying or cyberbullying prevalence based on location (urban or suburban) or demographic characteristics. Given the substantial presence of cyberbullying and the increase in technology use among adolescents in the 21st century, nurses need knowledge of the phenomenon to plan assessments in clinical practice. Early identification and assessment of cyberbullying victims and perpetrators, and development and implementation of effective interventions are needed to reduce this form of bullying among adolescents.

  8. A 21st century roadmap for human health risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastoor, Timothy P; Bachman, Ammie N; Bell, David R; Cohen, Samuel M; Dellarco, Michael; Dewhurst, Ian C; Doe, John E; Doerrer, Nancy G; Embry, Michelle R; Hines, Ronald N; Moretto, Angelo; Phillips, Richard D; Rowlands, J Craig; Tanir, Jennifer Y; Wolf, Douglas C; Boobis, Alan R

    2014-08-01

    The Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI)-coordinated Risk Assessment in the 21st Century (RISK21) project was initiated to develop a scientific, transparent, and efficient approach to the evolving world of human health risk assessment, and involved over 120 participants from 12 countries, 15 government institutions, 20 universities, 2 non-governmental organizations, and 12 corporations. This paper provides a brief overview of the tiered RISK21 framework called the roadmap and risk visualization matrix, and articulates the core principles derived by RISK21 participants that guided its development. Subsequent papers describe the roadmap and matrix in greater detail. RISK21 principles include focusing on problem formulation, utilizing existing information, starting with exposure assessment (rather than toxicity), and using a tiered process for data development. Bringing estimates of exposure and toxicity together on a two-dimensional matrix provides a clear rendition of human safety and risk. The value of the roadmap is its capacity to chronicle the stepwise acquisition of scientific information and display it in a clear and concise fashion. Furthermore, the tiered approach and transparent display of information will contribute to greater efficiencies by calling for data only as needed (enough precision to make a decision), thus conserving animals and other resources.

  9. 21st Century innovators. Interview by Joe Flower.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newbold, P; Linton, P

    1992-01-01

    Last spring, The Healthcare Forum and 3M together announced the 21st Century Innovator Awards. They hoped to spotlight examples of the most forward-thinking organizations in American healthcare--organizations that could demonstrate readiness for the next century through the process of rebuilding their systems and structures. THF and 3M were looking for models for success with: (1) an organizational vision for the future, (2) an integrated planning process which reflected that vision, and (3) a measurable future benefit to the communities they served. The call elicited responses from more than 40 organizations across the country. THF and 3M were overwhelmed by both their range and quality. Choosing was difficult. But last September two winners were unveiled at the THF-3M Visionary Leadership conference in Hilton Head, South Carolina. Memorial Hospital and Health System of South Bend, Indiana, took the large, urban, regional, and national award for its progress in the long, tough process of revisioning itself according to a strategic concept CEO Phil Newbold calls "Quality Through People." The small, rural, and suburban prize went to Yavapai Regional Medical Center in Prescott, Arizona, where CEO Pat Linton is attempting to shape a "Total Healing Environment." We asked Joe Flower to visit both sites and send back an eyewitness report on what makes these two progressive organizations models for healthcare in the '90s and beyond.

  10. Biosurfactants: Multifunctional Biomolecules of the 21st Century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Danyelle Khadydja F; Rufino, Raquel D; Luna, Juliana M; Santos, Valdemir A; Sarubbo, Leonie A

    2016-03-18

    In the era of global industrialisation, the exploration of natural resources has served as a source of experimentation for science and advanced technologies, giving rise to the manufacturing of products with high aggregate value in the world market, such as biosurfactants. Biosurfactants are amphiphilic microbial molecules with hydrophilic and hydrophobic moieties that partition at liquid/liquid, liquid/gas or liquid/solid interfaces. Such characteristics allow these biomolecules to play a key role in emulsification, foam formation, detergency and dispersal, which are desirable qualities in different industries. Biosurfactant production is considered one of the key technologies for development in the 21st century. Besides exerting a strong positive impact on the main global problems, biosurfactant production has considerable importance to the implantation of sustainable industrial processes, such as the use of renewable resources and "green" products. Biodegradability and low toxicity have led to the intensification of scientific studies on a wide range of industrial applications for biosurfactants in the field of bioremediation as well as the petroleum, food processing, health, chemical, agricultural and cosmetic industries. In this paper, we offer an extensive review regarding knowledge accumulated over the years and advances achieved in the incorporation of biomolecules in different industries.

  11. Rethinking Approaches to Strategic Stability in the 21st Century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rose, Brian [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-02-01

    Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) hosted a two-day conference on rethinking approaches to strategic stability in the 21st century on October 20-21, 2016 in Livermore, CA. The conference was jointly convened by Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia National Laboratories, and was held in partnership with the United States Department of State’s Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance. The conference took place at LLNL’s Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) and included a range of representatives from U.S. government, academic, and private institutions, as well as representatives from U.S. allies in Europe and Asia.The following summary covers topics and discussions from each of the panels. It is not intended to capture every point in detail, but seeks to outline the range of views on these complex and inter-related issues while providing a general overview of the panel topics and discussions that took place. The conference was held under the Chatham House rule and does not attribute any remarks to any specific individual or institution. The views reflected in this report do not represent the United States Government, Department of State, or the national laboratories.

  12. Bionic autonomic neuromodulation revolutionizes cardiology in the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunagawa, Kenji

    2009-01-01

    In this invited session, we would like to address the impact of bionic neuromodulation on cardiovascular diseases. It has been well established that cardiovascular dysregulation plays major roles in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular diseases. This is the reason why most drugs currently used in cardiology have significant pharmacological effects on the cardiovascular regulatory system. Since the ultimate center for cardiovascular regulation is the brainstem, it is conceivable that autonomic neuromodulation would have significant impacts on cardiovascular diseases. On the basis of this framework, we first developed a bionic, neurally regulated artificial pacemaker. We then substituted the brainstem by CPU and developed a bionic artificial baroreflex system. We further developed a bionic brain that achieved better regulatory conditions than the native brainstem in order to improve survival in animal model with heart failure. We recently developed a bionic neuromodulation system to reduce infarction size following acute myocardial infarction. We believe that the bionic neuromodulation will inspire even more intricate applications in cardiology in the 21(st) century.

  13. The Mathematical Formatting of Climate Change: Critical Mathematics Education and Post-Normal Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barwell, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most pressing issues of the 21st Century. Mathematics is involved at every level of understanding climate change, including the description, prediction and communication of climate change. As a highly complex issue, climate change is an example of "post-normal" science -- it is urgent, complex and involves a…

  14. Supporting food security in the 21st century through resource-conserving increases in agricultural production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uphoff Norman

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The Green Revolution was accomplished under a set of demographic, economic, climatic and other conditions in the 20th century that have been changing and will surely be different and more difficult in the decades ahead. The suitability and sustainability of any given agricultural technology depends on factors like resource availability and productivity, energy costs, and environmental constraints. The achievements of Green Revolution technologies in the 1960s and 1970s came at a critical time of impending food shortages, and the world’s people would be worse off without them. However, the rate of yield improvement for cereal production has been slowing since the mid-1980s. Looking ahead at the foreseeable circumstances under which 21st century agricultural producers must try to assure food security, there will be need for technologies that are less dependent on resources that are becoming relatively scarcer, like arable land and water, or becoming relatively more costly, like energy and petrochemical-based inputs. This paper considers agroecologically-based innovations that reduce farmers’ dependence on external inputs, relying more on endogenous processes and existing potentials in plants and soil systems. Such resource-conserving production represents a different approach to meeting food security goals. While these innovations are not yet fully understood and are still being researched, there are good agronomic reasons to account for their effectiveness, and scientific validations are accumulating. Enough successes have been recorded from making changes in the management of plants, soil, water and nutrients that more attention from researchers, policy-makers and practitioners is warranted, especially given the need to adapt to, and to mitigate the effects of, climate change. The same agroecological concepts and management methods that are enhancing factor productivity in rice production are giving similar results with other crops

  15. The importance of sea ice area biases in 21st century multimodel projections of Antarctic temperature and precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bracegirdle, Thomas J.; Stephenson, David B.; Turner, John; Phillips, Tony

    2015-12-01

    Climate models exhibit large biases in sea ice area (SIA) in their historical simulations. This study explores the impacts of these biases on multimodel uncertainty in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble projections of 21st century change in Antarctic surface temperature, net precipitation, and SIA. The analysis is based on time slice climatologies in the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 future scenario (2070-2099) and historical (1970-1999) simulations across 37 different CMIP5 models. Projected changes in net precipitation, temperature, and SIA are found to be strongly associated with simulated historical mean SIA (e.g., cross-model correlations of r = 0.77, 0.71, and -0.85, respectively). Furthermore, historical SIA bias is found to have a large impact on the simulated ratio between net precipitation response and temperature response. This ratio is smaller in models with smaller-than-observed SIA. These strong emergent relationships on SIA bias could, if found to be physically robust, be exploited to give more precise climate projections for Antarctica.

  16. Effect of Climate Change on Air Quality

    OpenAIRE

    Jacob, Daniel J.; Winner, Darrel A.

    2009-01-01

    Air quality is strongly dependent on weather and is therefore sensitive to climate change. Recent studies have provided estimates of this climate effect through correlations of air quality with meteorological variables, perturbation analyses in chemical transport models (CTMs), and CTM simulations driven by general circulation model (GCM) simulations of 21st-century climate change. We review these different approaches and their results. The future climate is expected to be more stagnant, due ...

  17. Engineering a future for amphibians under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luke P. Shoo; Deanna H. Olson; Sarah K. McMenamin; Kris A. Murray; Monique VanSluys; Maureen A. Donnelly; Danial Stratford; Juhani Terhivuo; Andres Merino-Viteri; Sarah M. Herbert; Phillip J. Bishop; Paul Stephen Corn; Liz Dovey; Richard A. Griffiths; Katrin Lowe; Michael Mahony; Hamish McCallum; Jonathan D. Shuker; Clay Simpkins; Lee F. Skerratt; Stephen E. Williams; Jean-Marc. Hero

    2011-01-01

    Altered global climates in the 21st century pose serious threats for biological systems and practical actions are needed to mount a response for species at risk. We identify management actions from across the world and from diverse disciplines that are applicable to minimizing loss of amphibian biodiversity under climate change. Actions were...

  18. Developing skills for youth in the 21st century: The role of elite International Baccalaureate Diploma Programme schools in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Ewan; Lee, Moosung

    2014-04-01

    There is a growing body of research suggesting that schools need to respond to changing social and economic dynamics by prioritising "21st-century skills". Proponents of this view, who have been termed "the 21st century skills movement", have called for greater emphasis on cognitive and non-cognitive skills development, alongside the learning of subject content and technical skills. This paper explores the potential of International Baccalaureate Diploma Programme (IBDP) schools to respond to this mandate in China, one of the fastest-growing markets for International Baccalaureate® (IB) schools globally. The authors' research team undertook a multi-site case study of five elite IBDP schools in China. Their findings revealed confidence among interviewees that the IB educational philosophy was conducive to 21st-century skills development, especially through the provision of the three IBDP "Core Requirements", which are Creativity, Action, Service (CAS), Extended Essay (EE) and Theory of Knowledge (TOK). Despite this confidence, concerns remain about the implementation of the IB educational philosophy in the context of IBDP schools in China.

  19. Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Bopp

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Ocean ecosystems are increasingly stressed by human-induced changes of their physical, chemical and biological environment. Among these changes, warming, acidification, deoxygenation and changes in primary productivity by marine phytoplankton can be considered as four of the major stressors of open ocean ecosystems. Due to rising atmospheric CO2 in the coming decades, these changes will be amplified. Here, we use the most recent simulations performed in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 to assess how these stressors may evolve over the course of the 21st century. The 10 Earth System Models used here project similar trends in ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced primary productivity for each of the IPCC's representative concentration parthways (RCP over the 21st century. For the "business-as-usual" scenario RCP8.5, the model-mean changes in 2090s (compared to 1990s for sea surface temperature, sea surface pH, global O2 content and integrated primary productivity amount to +2.73 °C, −0.33 pH unit, −3.45% and −8.6%, respectively. For the high mitigation scenario RCP2.6, corresponding changes are +0.71 °C, −0.07 pH unit, −1.81% and −2.0% respectively, illustrating the effectiveness of extreme mitigation strategies. Although these stressors operate globally, they display distinct regional patterns. Large decreases in O2 and in pH are simulated in global ocean intermediate and mode waters, whereas large reductions in primary production are simulated in the tropics and in the North Atlantic. Although temperature and pH projections are robust across models, the same does not hold for projections of sub-surface O2 concentrations in the tropics and global and regional changes in net primary productivity.

  20. A 1,200-year perspective of 21st century drought in southwestern North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodhouse, Connie A; Meko, David M; MacDonald, Glen M; Stahle, Dave W; Cook, Edward R

    2010-12-14

    A key feature of anticipated 21st century droughts in Southwest North America is the concurrence of elevated temperatures and increased aridity. Instrumental records and paleoclimatic evidence for past prolonged drought in the Southwest that coincide with elevated temperatures can be assessed to provide insights on temperature-drought relations and to develop worst-case scenarios for the future. In particular, during the medieval period, ∼AD 900-1300, the Northern Hemisphere experienced temperatures warmer than all but the most recent decades. Paleoclimatic and model data indicate increased temperatures in western North America of approximately 1 °C over the long-term mean. This was a period of extensive and persistent aridity over western North America. Paleoclimatic evidence suggests drought in the mid-12th century far exceeded the severity, duration, and extent of subsequent droughts. The driest decade of this drought was anomalously warm, though not as warm as the late 20th and early 21st centuries. The convergence of prolonged warming and arid conditions suggests the mid-12th century may serve as a conservative analogue for severe droughts that might occur in the future. The severity, extent, and persistence of the 12th century drought that occurred under natural climate variability, have important implications for water resource management. The causes of past and future drought will not be identical but warm droughts, inferred from paleoclimatic records, demonstrate the plausibility of extensive, severe droughts, provide a long-term perspective on the ongoing drought conditions in the Southwest, and suggest the need for regional sustainability planning for the future.