Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA) participated in a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission research program to investigate methods to measure the effect of management and organization on nuclear plant safety. The UCLA research team focused its efforts on understanding {open_quotes}deep technical knowledge,{close_quotes} and its relation to probabilistic risk assessment. As a result, the research team combined deep technical knowledge with a commonly used rating system for understanding the effectiveness of management and organizations.

Science.gov (United States)

Since August 2000, the stock market in the USA as well as most other western markets have depreciated almost in synchrony according to complex patterns of drops and local rebounds. In (Quantitative Finance 2 (2002) 468), we have proposed to describe this phenomenon using the concept of a log-periodic power law antibubble, characterizing behavioral herding between investors leading to a competition between positive and negative feedbacks in the pricing process. A monthly prediction for the future evolution of the US S&P 500 index has been issued, monitored and updated in (http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/prediction/index.asp#prediction), which is still running as the article goes to press. Here, we test the possible existence of a regime switching in the US S&P 500 antibubble. First, we find some evidence that the antibubble has exhibited a transition in log-periodicity described by a so-called second-order log-periodicity. Second, we develop a ...