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Sample records for tsunami event generated

  1. Integrated Historical Tsunami Event and Deposit Database

    Dunbar, P. K.; McCullough, H. L.

    2010-12-01

    (e.g., earthquake, landslide, volcanic eruption, asteroid impact) is also specified. Observations (grain size, sedimentary structure, bed thickness, number of layers, etc.) are stored along with the conclusions drawn from the evidence by the author (wave height, flow depth, flow velocity, number of waves, etc.). Geologic time periods in the GTD_DB range from Precambrian to Quaternary, but the majority (70%) are from the Quaternary period. This period includes events such as: the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes and tsunamis, the 1755 Lisbon tsunami, the A.D. 79 Vesuvius tsunami, the 3500 BP Santorini caldera collapse and tsunami, and the 7000 BP Storegga landslide-generated tsunami. Prior to the Quaternary period, the majority of the paleotsunamis are due to impact events such as: the Tertiary Chesapeake Bay Bolide, Cretaceous-Tertiary (K/T) Boundary, Cretaceous Manson, and Devonian Alamo. The tsunami deposits are integrated with the historical tsunami event database where applicable. For example, users can search for articles describing deposits related to the 1755 Lisbon tsunami and view those records, as well as link to the related historic event record. The data and information may be viewed using tools designed to extract and display data (selection forms, Web Map Services, and Web Feature Services).

  2. Local tsunami warnings: Perspectives from recent large events

    Melgar, Diego; Allen, Richard M.; Riquelme, Sebastian; Geng, Jianghui; Bravo, Francisco; Baez, Juan Carlos; Parra, Hector; Barrientos, Sergio; Fang, Peng; Bock, Yehuda; Bevis, Michael; Caccamise, Dana J.; Vigny, Christophe; Moreno, Marcos; Smalley, Robert

    2016-02-01

    We demonstrate a flexible strategy for local tsunami warning that relies on regional geodetic and seismic stations. Through retrospective analysis of four recent tsunamigenic events in Japan and Chile, we show that rapid earthquake source information, provided by methodologies developed for earthquake early warning, can be used to generate timely estimates of maximum expected tsunami amplitude with enough accuracy for tsunami warning. We validate the technique by comparing to detailed models of earthquake source and tsunami propagation as well as field surveys of tsunami inundation. Our approach does not require deployment of new geodetic and seismic instrumentation in many subduction zones and could be implemented rapidly by national monitoring and warning agencies. We illustrate the potential impact of our method with a detailed comparison to the actual timeline of events during the recent 2015 Mw8.3 Illapel, Chile, earthquake and tsunami that prompted the evacuation of 1 million people.

  3. Landslide tsunami case studies using a Boussinesq model and a fully nonlinear tsunami generation model

    P. Watts

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Case studies of landslide tsunamis require integration of marine geology data and interpretations into numerical simulations of tsunami attack. Many landslide tsunami generation and propagation models have been proposed in recent time, further motivated by the 1998 Papua New Guinea event. However, few of these models have proven capable of integrating the best available marine geology data and interpretations into successful case studies that reproduce all available tsunami observations and records. We show that nonlinear and dispersive tsunami propagation models may be necessary for many landslide tsunami case studies. GEOWAVE is a comprehensive tsunami simulation model formed in part by combining the Tsunami Open and Progressive Initial Conditions System (TOPICS with the fully non-linear Boussinesq water wave model FUNWAVE. TOPICS uses curve fits of numerical results from a fully nonlinear potential flow model to provide approximate landslide tsunami sources for tsunami propagation models, based on marine geology data and interpretations. In this work, we validate GEOWAVE with successful case studies of the 1946 Unimak, Alaska, the 1994 Skagway, Alaska, and the 1998 Papua New Guinea events. GEOWAVE simulates accurate runup and inundation at the same time, with no additional user interference or effort, using a slot technique. Wave breaking, if it occurs during shoaling or runup, is also accounted for with a dissipative breaking model acting on the wave front. The success of our case studies depends on the combination of accurate tsunami sources and an advanced tsunami propagation and inundation model.

  4. Tsunami: ocean dynamo generator.

    Sugioka, Hiroko; Hamano, Yozo; Baba, Kiyoshi; Kasaya, Takafumi; Tada, Noriko; Suetsugu, Daisuke

    2014-01-01

    Secondary magnetic fields are induced by the flow of electrically conducting seawater through the Earth's primary magnetic field ('ocean dynamo effect'), and hence it has long been speculated that tsunami flows should produce measurable magnetic field perturbations, although the signal-to-noise ratio would be small because of the influence of the solar magnetic fields. Here, we report on the detection of deep-seafloor electromagnetic perturbations of 10-micron-order induced by a tsunami, which propagated through a seafloor electromagnetometer array network. The observed data extracted tsunami characteristics, including the direction and velocity of propagation as well as sea-level change, first to verify the induction theory. Presently, offshore observation systems for the early forecasting of tsunami are based on the sea-level measurement by seafloor pressure gauges. In terms of tsunami forecasting accuracy, the integration of vectored electromagnetic measurements into existing scalar observation systems would represent a substantial improvement in the performance of tsunami early-warning systems. PMID:24399356

  5. Tsunami Source Identification on the 1867 Tsunami Event Based on the Impact Intensity

    Wu, T. R.

    2014-12-01

    The 1867 Keelung tsunami event has drawn significant attention from people in Taiwan. Not only because the location was very close to the 3 nuclear power plants which are only about 20km away from the Taipei city but also because of the ambiguous on the tsunami sources. This event is unique in terms of many aspects. First, it was documented on many literatures with many languages and with similar descriptions. Second, the tsunami deposit was discovered recently. Based on the literatures, earthquake, 7-meter tsunami height, volcanic smoke, and oceanic smoke were observed. Previous studies concluded that this tsunami was generated by an earthquake with a magnitude around Mw7.0 along the Shanchiao Fault. However, numerical results showed that even a Mw 8.0 earthquake was not able to generate a 7-meter tsunami. Considering the steep bathymetry and intense volcanic activities along the Keelung coast, one reasonable hypothesis is that different types of tsunami sources were existed, such as the submarine landslide or volcanic eruption. In order to confirm this scenario, last year we proposed the Tsunami Reverse Tracing Method (TRTM) to find the possible locations of the tsunami sources. This method helped us ruling out the impossible far-field tsunami sources. However, the near-field sources are still remain unclear. This year, we further developed a new method named 'Impact Intensity Analysis' (IIA). In the IIA method, the study area is divided into a sequence of tsunami sources, and the numerical simulations of each source is conducted by COMCOT (Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model) tsunami model. After that, the resulting wave height from each source to the study site is collected and plotted. This method successfully helped us to identify the impact factor from the near-field potential sources. The IIA result (Fig. 1) shows that the 1867 tsunami event was a multi-source event. A mild tsunami was trigged by a Mw7.0 earthquake, and then followed by the submarine

  6. Generating Real-Time Tsunami Forecast Animations for Tsunami Warning Operations

    Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Fryer, G. J.; Weinstein, S.

    2012-12-01

    The complex calculations inherent in tsunami forecast models once required supercomputers to solve and could only be deployed in an operational setting as a database of precomputed best-guess solutions for likely future tsunamis. More recently scientists at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) developed a tsunami forecast model, RIFT, that takes an earthquake's centroid moment tensor solution—either from nearby historic events or rapidly determined by W-phase analysis—and solves the linear shallow water equations in real time with commercial off-the-shelf computer servers and open-source software tools (Wang et al., 2009). RIFT not only rapidly calculates tsunami forecasts in real time, but also generates and archives data grids easily ingested by other software packages to generate maps and animations in a variety of image, video, and geobrowser file formats (e.g., KML). These graphical products aid both operational and outreach efforts as they help PTWC scientists to rapidly ingest and comprehend large, complex data sets, to share these data with emergency managers, and to educate the general public about the behavior of tsunamis. Prior to developing animation capability PTWC used tsunami travel time contour maps to show expected arrival times of the first tsunami waves. Though useful to expert users, such maps can mislead a nonexpert as they do not show amplitude information and give the impression that tsunami waves have constant amplitudes throughout an ocean basin. A tsunami forecast "energy map" improves tsunami hazard communication by showing the variability in maximum wave heights, but does not show the timing of the maximum wave arrivals. A tsunami forecast animation, however, shows both how fast the tsunami will move and the distribution of its amplitudes over time, thus communicating key concepts about tsunami behavior such as reflection and refraction of waves, that the first arriving wave is not necessarily the largest wave, and that tsunami

  7. Historical and paleo-tsunami deposits during the last 4000 years and their correlations with historical tsunami events in Koyadori on the Sanriku Coast, northeastern Japan

    Ishimura, Daisuke; Miyauchi, Takahiro

    2015-12-01

    Large tsunamis occurring throughout the past several hundred years along the Sanriku Coast on the Pacific coast of northeastern Japan have been documented and observed. However, the risk of large tsunamis like the tsunami generated by the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake could not be evaluated from previous studies, because these studies lacked evidence of historical and paleo-tsunami deposits on the coastline. Thus, we first identified event deposits, which are candidates for tsunami deposits, from excavating surveys conducted on the coastal marsh in Koyadori on the Sanriku Coast, northeastern Japan. Second, we determined the physicochemical sediment properties of the deposits (roundness of grains, color, wet and dry densities, and loss on ignition) and established their geochronology by radiocarbon dating and tephra analysis. Third, we identified event deposits as tsunami deposits, based on their sedimentary features and origin, sedimentary environment, paleo-shoreline, and landowner interviews. In this study, we report 11 tsunami deposits (E1-E11) during the past 4000 years, of which E1, E2, E3, and E4 were correlated with the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami, the 1896 Meiji Sanriku tsunami, the 1611 Keicho Sanriku tsunami, and the 869 Jogan tsunami, respectively. From age data and the number of tsunami deposits in the trench, we estimated that tsunamis larger than the 1896 Meiji Sanriku tsunami occur and hit the study area on average every 290-390 years. However, historical tsunami correlations revealed variable tsunami occurrence, indicating diverse tsunami generation and/or the combination of several types of large earthquakes from different sources around the Japan Trench.

  8. REMOTE: RECONNAISSANCE AND MONITORING OF TSUNAMI EVENTS

    Frank C. Lin

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The present study describes a prototype we built and named REMOTE for detecting and monitoring in real time tsunami events, based on changes in infrared radiation emitted from the sea when up thrust crustal movements from a major or a great tsunamigenic earthquake disturb the ocean floor and change the thermal properties of the water column in the source region. Specifically, we describe the hardware and software components of this system and present its performance results from recent tsunamis. Declouding of satellite images is often required and this is accomplished by the application of wavelet analysis. Also, in the present study we address the problem of signal delay due to the satellite scanning cycle and discuss possible solutions. Finally, we enumerate the relative benefits of our system. Our proposed system is available to all the countries with access to a geostationary weather satellite.

  9. VOLCANIC TSUNAMI GENERATING SOURCE MECHANISMS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN REGION

    George Pararas-Carayannis

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, volcanic island flank failures and underwater slides have generated numerous destructive tsunamis in the Caribbean region. Convergent, compressional and collisional tectonic activity caused primarily from the eastward movement of the Caribbean Plate in relation to the North American, Atlantic and South American Plates, is responsible for zones of subduction in the region, the formation of island arcs and the evolution of particular volcanic centers on the overlying plate. The inter-plate tectonic interaction and deformation along these marginal boundaries result in moderate seismic and volcanic events that can generate tsunamis by a number of different mechanisms. The active geo-dynamic processes have created the Lesser Antilles, an arc of small islands with volcanoes characterized by both effusive and explosive activity. Eruption mechanisms of these Caribbean volcanoes are complex and often anomalous. Collapses of lava domes often precede major eruptions, which may vary in intensity from Strombolian to Plinian. Locally catastrophic, short-period tsunami-like waves can be generated directly by lateral, direct or channelized volcanic blast episodes, or in combination with collateral air pressure perturbations, nuéss ardentes, pyroclastic flows, lahars, or cascading debris avalanches. Submarine volcanic caldera collapses can also generate locally destructive tsunami waves. Volcanoes in the Eastern Caribbean Region have unstable flanks. Destructive local tsunamis may be generated from aerial and submarine volcanic edifice mass edifice flank failures, which may be triggered by volcanic episodes, lava dome collapses, or simply by gravitational instabilities. The present report evaluates volcanic mechanisms, resulting flank failure processes and their potential for tsunami generation. More specifically, the report evaluates recent volcanic eruption mechanisms of the Soufriere Hills volcano on Montserrat, of Mt. Pel

  10. A combined model for tsunami generation and propagation

    Lima, Vania; Baptista, Maria Ana; Avilez-Valente, Paulo; Miranda, Miguel

    2016-04-01

    Several tsunami models apply different wave models and numerical schemes with the aim of modelling the wide variety of wave phenomena, as its generation, propagation, transformation and run-up. However, models are limited by mathematical and numerical formulations which constrain their scope of applications. Combined models are an interesting option as they allow merging the advantages of different existent models into a single one. In this work a tsunami combined model which couples the GeoClaw code, an extension of the Clawpack software for geophysical flows using adaptive finite volume methods, with the fully non-linear, phase-resolving, time-stepping Boussinesq wave model FUNWAVE-TVD for near-shore water wave propagation is presented. GeoClaw is used for the seismic tsunami generation of the 1969 Portugal tsunami and with FUNWAVE-TVD we study the propagation of the tsunami and near-shore surface elevations. Both codes have been individually benchmarked with some mandatory established benchmark problems. The results obtained from the numerical simulation are compared with existent observational data along the Portuguese coast for this historical event. This work received funding from FCT (SFRH/BD/96725/2013) and project ASTARTE - Assessment Strategy and risk Reduction For Tsunamis in Europe - Grant 603839 - FP7.

  11. Landslide-generated tsunami geomorphology at Chehalis Lake, British Columbia

    Roberts, N. J.; McKillop, R.; Clague, J. J.; Lawrence, M. L.

    2012-12-01

    The 2007 Chehalis Lake tsunami in the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia is one of the most comprehensively described landslide-generated tsunamis in the world. We use field observations and remotely sensed data collected during the two years following the tsunami to characterize its geomorphic impact and propose a suite of geomorphic features characteristic of tsunamis generated by subaerial landslides. On December 4, 2007, a highly fragmented 3 Mm3 rockslide entered the north end of Chehalis Lake and generated a tsunami that drastically altered much of the shore of the 8.5-km-long lake, with local run-up exceeding 35 m. The tsunami continued as a surge down lower Chehalis River, at the south end of the lake. We characterized geomorphic features produced by the tsunami by collecting multi-scale data, starting immediately after the event. Data included reconnaissance helicopter and ground observations, low-altitude aerial digital photography and aerial LiDAR survey, detailed GPS-controlled field traverses, and an underwater survey using side-scan sonar and swath bathymetric sounding. The impact of the tsunami was greatest on low-gradient shores and the shoreline nearest the landslide. Erosional features include wave-cut scarps, soil erosion, and complete removal of forest, leaving sharp trimlines. Debris transported by the tsunami stripped bark from standing trees, left impact marks on them, and embedded gravel in them. Depositional features include imbricated cobbles and boulders, ripples in sand and gravel, pebble lags, rip-up clasts of glaciolacustrine silt, and trash lines of woody debris in forest at and near the limit of tsunami run-up. Similar features have been reported at sites of landslide-triggered tsunamis, notably in Alaska, Chile, Norway, and elsewhere in Canada. We grouped geomorphic features at Chehalis Lake on the basis of their areal distribution and their inferred formative energy. The geomorphic groups form a continuum, reflecting

  12. Some events in Central Italy: are they all tsunamis? A revision for the Italian tsunami catalog

    A. Tertulliani

    1994-06-01

    Full Text Available he catalogs available in the literature show that tsunamis affecting Italian coasts are not very strong, except for a few well analyzed events, i.e. the Messina December 28, 1908 tsunami. This study aims at making a careful revision of some minor tsunamigenic events, in particular those occurred along the coasts of the Central Tyrrhenian Sea, considering tsunamis associated with earthquakes, from 1700 to 1919. These events have been poorly studied so far, and need a check to verify their reliability, even though they are reported in the catalogs. The results show how it is difficult to get a clear definition of those tsunamis, because of a gap in the historical sources, in spite of the large amount of seismological data concerning earthquakes related to the anaIyzed tsunamis. This analysis proposes to delete from the catalog some events for which a clear groundlessness appeared.

  13. Historical Tsunami Event Locations with Runups

    Department of Homeland Security — The Global Historical Tsunami Database provides information on over 2,400 tsunamis from 2100 BC to the present in the the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans; and...

  14. Analytical investigation on tsunamis generated by submarine slides

    E. Bortolucci

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available Tsunamis induced by landslides are a topic on which growing attention is being paid especially under the pressure of recent events in which movement of underwater masses have been recognised to be the certain or likely cause of the observed tsunami. Here analytical methods and idealised cases are used to investigate tsunami generation by submarine slides that undergo negligible deformation during their motion, such as slumps. The general solution of the 1D Cauchy linear problem for long water waves is specialised to deal with rigid bodies and is used systematically to explore the main characteristics of the generated waves. Relationships between body motion, that is prescribed in terms of the slide Froude number, and wave pattern, wave amplitude and wave energy are studied in dimensionless space. Wave generation in various flow conditions (from subcritical to supercritical is handled, though most attention is given to analysing tsunamis induced by submarine slides at subcritical speed which are by far the most common cases. From numerical experiments it is found that good estimates of the tsunami wave amplitude can be calculated by means of simple expressions based on the maximum value and on the average value of the Froude number during the main generation phase.

  15. Characteristics of tsunamis generated by 3D deformable granular landslides

    Mohammed, F.; Fritz, H. M.; McFall, B.

    2010-12-01

    Landslides can trigger tsunamis with locally high amplitudes and runup, which can cause devastating effects in the near field region. The events of 1958 Lituya Bay, 1998 Papua New Guinea and 2006 Java tsunamis are reminders of the hazards associated with impulse waves. Tsunamis generated by granular landslides were studied in the three dimensional NEES tsunami wave basin (TWB) at Oregon State University (OSU) based on the generalized Froude similarity. A novel pneumatic landslide generator was deployed to simulate landslides with varying geometry and kinematics. Granular materials were used to model deformable landslides. Measurement techniques such as particle image velocimetry (PIV), multiple above and underwater video cameras, multiple acoustic transducer arrays (MTA), as well as resistance wave and runup gauges were applied. Tsunami wave generation and propagation is studied off a hill slope, in fjords and around curved headlands. The wave generation was characterized by an extremely unsteady three phase flow consisting of the slide granulate, water and air entrained into the flow. Landslide deformation is quantified and the slide kinematics with reference to slide surface velocity distribution and slide front velocity is obtained. Empirical equations for predicting the wave amplitude, period and wavelength are obtained. The generated waves depend on determined non-dimensional landslide and water body parameters such as the slide Froude number and relative slide shape at impact, among others. Attenuation functions of the leading wave crest amplitude, the lateral wave runup on the hill slope, the wave length and the time period were obtained to describe the wave behavior in the near field and to quantify the wave amplitude decay away from the landslide source. The measured wave celerity of the leading wave corresponds well to the solitary wave speed while the trailing waves are considerably slower in propagation. The individual waves in the wave train span from

  16. Advanced Simulation of Coupled Earthquake and Tsunami Events (ASCETE) - Simulation Techniques for Realistic Tsunami Process Studies

    Behrens, Joern; Bader, Michael; Breuer, Alexander N.; van Dinther, Ylona; Gabriel, Alice-A.; Galvez Barron, Percy E.; Rahnema, Kaveh; Vater, Stefan; Wollherr, Stephanie

    2015-04-01

    At the End of phase 1 of the ASCETE project a simulation framework for coupled physics-based rupture generation with tsunami propagation and inundation is available. Adaptive mesh tsunami propagation and inundation by discontinuous Galerkin Runge-Kutta methods allows for accurate and conservative inundation schemes. Combined with a tree-based refinement strategy to highly optimize the code for high-performance computing architectures, a modeling tool for high fidelity tsunami simulations has been constructed. Validation results demonstrate the capacity of the software. Rupture simulation is performed by an unstructured tetrahedral discontinuous Galerking ADER discretization, which allows for accurate representation of complex geometries. The implemented code was nominated for and was selected as a finalist for the Gordon Bell award in high-performance computing. Highly realistic rupture events can be simulated with this modeling tool. The coupling of rupture induced wave activity and displacement with hydrodynamic equations still poses a major problem due to diverging time and spatial scales. Some insight from the ASCETE set-up could be gained and the presentation will focus on the coupled behavior of the simulation system. Finally, an outlook to phase 2 of the ASCETE project will be given in which further development of detailed physical processes as well as near-realistic scenario computations are planned. ASCETE is funded by the Volkswagen Foundation.

  17. Tsunami Generation Modelling for Early Warning Systems

    Annunziato, A.; Matias, L.; Ulutas, E.; Baptista, M. A.; Carrilho, F.

    2009-04-01

    In the frame of a collaboration between the European Commission Joint Research Centre and the Institute of Meteorology in Portugal, a complete analytical tool to support Early Warning Systems is being developed. The tool will be part of the Portuguese National Early Warning System and will be used also in the frame of the UNESCO North Atlantic Section of the Tsunami Early Warning System. The system called Tsunami Analysis Tool (TAT) includes a worldwide scenario database that has been pre-calculated using the SWAN-JRC code (Annunziato, 2007). This code uses a simplified fault generation mechanism and the hydraulic model is based on the SWAN code (Mader, 1988). In addition to the pre-defined scenario, a system of computers is always ready to start a new calculation whenever a new earthquake is detected by the seismic networks (such as USGS or EMSC) and is judged capable to generate a Tsunami. The calculation is performed using minimal parameters (epicentre and the magnitude of the earthquake): the programme calculates the rupture length and rupture width by using empirical relationship proposed by Ward (2002). The database calculations, as well the newly generated calculations with the current conditions are therefore available to TAT where the real online analysis is performed. The system allows to analyze also sea level measurements available worldwide in order to compare them and decide if a tsunami is really occurring or not. Although TAT, connected with the scenario database and the online calculation system, is at the moment the only software that can support the tsunami analysis on a global scale, we are convinced that the fault generation mechanism is too simplified to give a correct tsunami prediction. Furthermore short tsunami arrival times especially require a possible earthquake source parameters data on tectonic features of the faults like strike, dip, rake and slip in order to minimize real time uncertainty of rupture parameters. Indeed the earthquake

  18. Tsunami Impact from a 1755-like event in the Aveiro Region, Portugal

    Lemos, Catarina R.; Omira, Rachid; Pinheiro, Luis M.; Baptista, Maria A.; Quaresma, Luis S.; Garrido, Carla

    2014-05-01

    In this study, we present 5m-resolution tsunami flooding maps for the Aveiro region, W. Central Portugal. Aveiro is known to have been impacted by the 1st November 1755 earthquake and tsunami. At that time this portion of the coast had almost no constructions nor population but eversince geomorphological changes took place, and there has been a very large population increase living in constructions extremely close to the shore. As such it is important to model and evaluate the potential impact that a similar event to the 1755 earthquake would have in this area at present. Tsunami flooding maps were computed using a digital elevation model produced from the present-day bathymetric and topographic data including bathymetric surveys, LiDAR and photogrammetric data. Tsunami scenarios were generated considering different solutions for the 1755 earthquake seismic source, in faults constrained by multibeam and multichannel seismic data. The modeling of the tsunami propagation was performed with a validated non-linear shallow water model. To compute inundation, we considered four levels of nested grids with resolutions ranging from 320m to 5m. The tsunami-associated flood is discussed in terms of flow depth, run-up height and maximum inundation area. The Ria de Aveiro is characterized by both flattened relief and significant tidal amplitude range, which can contribute to an important variation in flooding due to tsunami-tide interaction. Therefore, the effect of the tide variation on the extent of tsunami inundation is also discussed. Results are compared with the historical descriptions of the consequences in Aveiro. An event similar to the one from 1755 would cause tsunami run-up heights above one meter within the Ria de Aveiro. The Aveiro oceanic coast would also be strongly affected. The results obtained can be used to identify the potential tsunami inundation areas in Aveiro, which is important for the Portuguese tsunami emergency management system. Keywords

  19. Tsunamis: stochastic models of occurrence and generation mechanisms

    Geist, Eric L.; David Ogelsby

    2014-01-01

    The devastating consequences of the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Japan tsunamis have led to increased research into many different aspects of the tsunami phenomenon. In this entry, we review research related to the observed complexity and uncertainty associated with tsunami generation, propagation, and occurrence described and analyzed using a variety of stochastic methods. In each case, seismogenic tsunamis are primarily considered. Stochastic models are developed from the physical theories that govern tsunami evolution combined with empirical models fitted to seismic and tsunami observations, as well as tsunami catalogs. These stochastic methods are key to providing probabilistic forecasts and hazard assessments for tsunamis. The stochastic methods described here are similar to those described for earthquakes (Vere-Jones 2013) and volcanoes (Bebbington 2013) in this encyclopedia.

  20. Tsunami Modeling of Hikurangi Trench M9 Events: Case Study for Napier, New Zealand

    Williams, C. R.; Nyst, M.; Farahani, R.; Bryngelson, J.; Lee, R.; Molas, G.

    2015-12-01

    RMS has developed a tsunami model for New Zealand for the insurance industry to price and to manage their tsunami risks. A key tsunamigenic source for New Zealand is the Hikurangi Trench that lies offshore on the eastside of the North Island. The trench is the result of the subduction of the Pacific Plate beneath the North Island at a rate of 40-45 mm/yr. Though there have been no M9 historical events on the Hikurangi Trench, events in this magnitude range are considered in the latest version of the National Seismic Hazard Maps for New Zealand (Stirling et al., 2012). The RMS modeling approaches the tsunami lifecycle in three stages: event generation, ocean wave propagation, and coastal inundation. The tsunami event generation is modeled based on seafloor deformation resulting from an event rupture model. The ocean wave propagation and coastal inundation are modeled using a RMS-developed numerical solver, implemented on graphic processing units using a finite-volume approach to approximate two-dimensional, shallow-water wave equations over the ocean and complex topography. As the tsunami waves enter shallow water and approach the coast, the RMS model calculates the propagation of the waves along the wet-dry interface considering variable land friction. The initiation and characteristics of the tsunami are based on the event rupture model. As there have been no historical M9 events on the Hikurangi Trench, this rupture characterization posed unique challenges. This study examined the impacts of a suite of event rupture models to understand the key drivers in the variations in the tsunami inundation footprints. The goal was to develop a suite of tsunamigenic event characterizations that represent a range of potential tsunami outcomes for M9 events on the Hikurangi Trench. The focus of this case study is the Napier region as it represents an important exposure concentration in the region and has experience tsunami inundations in the past including during the 1931 Ms7

  1. Chapter two: Phenomenology of tsunamis II: scaling, event statistics, and inter-event triggering

    Geist, Eric L.

    2012-01-01

    Observations related to tsunami catalogs are reviewed and described in a phenomenological framework. An examination of scaling relationships between earthquake size (as expressed by scalar seismic moment and mean slip) and tsunami size (as expressed by mean and maximum local run-up and maximum far-field amplitude) indicates that scaling is significant at the 95% confidence level, although there is uncertainty in how well earthquake size can predict tsunami size (R2 ~ 0.4-0.6). In examining tsunami event statistics, current methods used to estimate the size distribution of earthquakes and landslides and the inter-event time distribution of earthquakes are first reviewed. These methods are adapted to estimate the size and inter-event distribution of tsunamis at a particular recording station. Using a modified Pareto size distribution, the best-fit power-law exponents of tsunamis recorded at nine Pacific tide-gauge stations exhibit marked variation, in contrast to the approximately constant power-law exponent for inter-plate thrust earthquakes. With regard to the inter-event time distribution, significant temporal clustering of tsunami sources is demonstrated. For tsunami sources occurring in close proximity to other sources in both space and time, a physical triggering mechanism, such as static stress transfer, is a likely cause for the anomalous clustering. Mechanisms of earthquake-to-earthquake and earthquake-to-landslide triggering are reviewed. Finally, a modification of statistical branching models developed for earthquake triggering is introduced to describe triggering among tsunami sources.

  2. Tsunami generation by ocean floor rupture front propagation: Hamiltonian description

    V. I. Pavlov

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The Hamiltonian method is applied to the problem of tsunami generation caused by a propagating rupture front and deformation of the ocean floor. The method establishes an alternative framework for analyzing the tsunami generation process and produces analytical expressions for the power and directivity of tsunami radiation (in the far-field for two illustrative cases, with constant and gradually varying speeds of rupture front propagation.

  3. Contribution of nonlinearity in tsunami generated by submarine earthquake

    M. A. Nosov

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Rapid co-seismic bottom displacements during strong submarine earthquake give rise to intensive low-frequency elastic oscillations of water layer. Nonlinear energy transfer from the elastic oscillations to long gravitational waves may provide an additional contribution to tsunami. The nonlinear tsunami generation mechanism is examined analytically. Finiteness of bottom elasticity is taken into account. General parameters responsible for amplitude and energy of the nonlinear contribution to tsunami wave are revealed.

  4. Tsunami events as a tool of identifying paleoseismic events in Sweden

    Mörner, N.-A.; Dawson, S.

    2003-04-01

    A sub-aqueous earthquake may set up a tsunami wave. When breaking in over a coastal area, this wave will rise to considerable height and flush in over land providing both an on-swash and a back-swash signal in bordering lakes. The tsunami beds are usually identified as sandy-gravelly layers, often in fining-upward sequence, and, most important, containing a planctonic (not bentic) diatom flora. We have utilised these criteria to trace the distribution of a number of tsunami events, all independently identified as simultaneous paleoseismic events. Our best example comes from the Boda (Hudiksvall-2) paleoseismic event in 9663 vBP (or 9145 cBP) which we traced in 40 cores from 13 different lakes (vBP = varve age, cBP = C14 age). This tsunami event is also identified some 300 km to the south. A second event (Hudiksvall-5) occurred at ~6100 cBP. Even this seems identifiable some 300 km to the south. A third event (Hudiksval-6) seems to have occurred around 3200 cBP. Even the 9428 vBP event in Umeå seems to have set up a tsunami (as yet only traced in one lake, however). The big Stockholm Mälardalen paleoseismic event in the autumn of varve 10,430 vBP (~10,000 cBP) set up a very big tsunami wave that washed the Närke Strait free of pack-ice providing the ingression of marine water into the Baltic basin in one single year. This tsunami event is now recorded over an area of 400x150 km. A local lake-tsunami is recorded in the Lake Marvikarna lake system at ~3500 cBP. In the Kattegatt region, additional events are recorded at 12,400, 11,600, 11,250 and maybe even at 1500 cBP. The occurrence of tsunami events in the Baltic (five), in some lake systems (one) and in the Kattegatt (three) represents a useful and independent record of paleoseismic events in Sweden. We foresee the identification of many more tsunami events in the near future. In many cases, the tsunami-beds have, previously, been misunderstood in terms of sea level oscillations.

  5. Characterizing Mega-Earthquake Related Tsunami on Subduction Zones without Large Historical Events

    Williams, C. R.; Lee, R.; Astill, S.; Farahani, R.; Wilson, P. S.; Mohammed, F.

    2014-12-01

    Due to recent large tsunami events (e.g., Chile 2010 and Japan 2011), the insurance industry is very aware of the importance of managing its exposure to tsunami risk. There are currently few tools available to help establish policies for managing and pricing tsunami risk globally. As a starting point and to help address this issue, Risk Management Solutions Inc. (RMS) is developing a global suite of tsunami inundation footprints. This dataset will include both representations of historical events as well as a series of M9 scenarios on subductions zones that have not historical generated mega earthquakes. The latter set is included to address concerns about the completeness of the historical record for mega earthquakes. This concern stems from the fact that the Tohoku Japan earthquake was considerably larger than had been observed in the historical record. Characterizing the source and rupture pattern for the subduction zones without historical events is a poorly constrained process. In many case, the subduction zones can be segmented based on changes in the characteristics of the subducting slab or major ridge systems. For this project, the unit sources from the NOAA propagation database are utilized to leverage the basin wide modeling included in this dataset. The length of the rupture is characterized based on subduction zone segmentation and the slip per unit source can be determined based on the event magnitude (i.e., M9) and moment balancing. As these events have not occurred historically, there is little to constrain the slip distribution. Sensitivity tests on the potential rupture pattern have been undertaken comparing uniform slip to higher shallow slip and tapered slip models. Subduction zones examined include the Makran Trench, the Lesser Antilles and the Hikurangi Trench. The ultimate goal is to create a series of tsunami footprints to help insurers understand their exposures at risk to tsunami inundation around the world.

  6. The TRIDEC Virtual Tsunami Atlas - customized value-added simulation data products for Tsunami Early Warning generated on compute clusters

    Löwe, P.; Hammitzsch, M.; Babeyko, A.; Wächter, J.

    2012-04-01

    The development of new Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) requires the modelling of spatio-temporal spreading of tsunami waves both recorded from past events and hypothetical future cases. The model results are maintained in digital repositories for use in TEWS command and control units for situation assessment once a real tsunami occurs. Thus the simulation results must be absolutely trustworthy, in a sense that the quality of these datasets is assured. This is a prerequisite as solid decision making during a crisis event and the dissemination of dependable warning messages to communities under risk will be based on them. This requires data format validity, but even more the integrity and information value of the content, being a derived value-added product derived from raw tsunami model output. Quality checking of simulation result products can be done in multiple ways, yet the visual verification of both temporal and spatial spreading characteristics for each simulation remains important. The eye of the human observer still remains an unmatched tool for the detection of irregularities. This requires the availability of convenient, human-accessible mappings of each simulation. The improvement of tsunami models necessitates the changes in many variables, including simulation end-parameters. Whenever new improved iterations of the general models or underlying spatial data are evaluated, hundreds to thousands of tsunami model results must be generated for each model iteration, each one having distinct initial parameter settings. The use of a Compute Cluster Environment (CCE) of sufficient size allows the automated generation of all tsunami-results within model iterations in little time. This is a significant improvement to linear processing on dedicated desktop machines or servers. This allows for accelerated/improved visual quality checking iterations, which in turn can provide a positive feedback into the overall model improvement iteratively. An approach to set

  7. The November 15, 2006 Kuril Islands-Generated Tsunami in Crescent City, California

    Dengler, L.; Uslu, B.; Barberopoulou, A.; Yim, S. C.; Kelly, A.

    2009-02-01

    On November 15, 2006, Crescent City in Del Norte County, California was hit by a tsunami generated by a M w 8.3 earthquake in the central Kuril Islands. Strong currents that persisted over an eight-hour period damaged floating docks and several boats and caused an estimated 9.2 million in losses. Initial tsunami alert bulletins issued by the West Coast Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) in Palmer, Alaska were cancelled about three and a half hours after the earthquake, nearly five hours before the first surges reached Crescent City. The largest amplitude wave, 1.76-meter peak to trough, was the sixth cycle and arrived over two hours after the first wave. Strong currents estimated at over 10 knots, damaged or destroyed three docks and caused cracks in most of the remaining docks. As a result of the November 15 event, WCATWC changed the definition of Advisory from a region-wide alert bulletin meaning that a potential tsunami is 6 hours or further away to a localized alert that tsunami water heights may approach warning- level thresholds in specific, vulnerable locations like Crescent City. On January 13, 2007 a similar Kuril event occurred and hourly conferences between the warning center and regional weather forecasts were held with a considerable improvement in the flow of information to local coastal jurisdictions. The event highlighted the vulnerability of harbors from a relatively modest tsunami and underscored the need to improve public education regarding the duration of the tsunami hazards, improve dialog between tsunami warning centers and local jurisdictions, and better understand the currents produced by tsunamis in harbors.

  8. Tsunamis

    ... During a Wildfire Responders Wildfire Smoke After a Fire Worker Safety During Fire Cleanup Wildfires PSAs Related Links Winter Weather Extreme ... All Regions (NOAA) About Tsunamis (American Red Cross) World Health Organization (WHO) South Asia earthquake and tsunamis ...

  9. Tsunami Information Sources

    Robert L. Wiegel

    2005-01-01

    I have expanded substantially my list of information sources on: tsunami generation (sources, impulsive mechanisms), propagation, effects of nearshore bathymetry, and wave run-up on shore - including physical (hydraulic) modeling and numerical modeling. This expanded list includes the subjects of field investigations of tsunamis soon after an event; damage effects in harbors on boats, ships, and facilities; tsunami wave-induced forces; damage by tsunami waves to structures on shore; scour/ero...

  10. Tsunamis generated by unconfined deformable granular landslides in various topographic configurations

    McFall, B. C.; Mohammed, F.; Fritz, H. M.

    2012-04-01

    Tsunamis generated by landslides and volcanic island collapses account for some of the most catastrophic events. Major tsunamis caused by landslides or volcanic island collapse were recorded at Krakatoa in 1883, Grand Banks, Newfoundland in 1929, Lituya Bay, Alaska in 1958, Papua New Guinea in 1998, and Java in 2006. Source and runup scenarios based on real world events are physically modeled in the three dimensional NEES tsunami wave basin (TWB) at Oregon State University (OSU). A novel pneumatic landslide tsunami generator (LTG) was deployed to simulate landslides with varying geometry and kinematics. The LTG consists of a sliding box filled with up to 1,350 kg of naturally rounded river gravel which is accelerated by means of four pneumatic pistons down the 2H: 1V slope, launching the granular landslide towards the water at velocities of up to 5 m/s. Topographical and bathymetric features can greatly affect wave characteristics and runup heights. Landslide tsunamis are studied in different topographic and bathymetric configurations: far field propagation and runup, a narrow fjord and curved headland configurations, and a conical island setting representing landslides off an island or a volcanic flank collapse. Water surface elevations were measured using an array of resistance wave gauges. The granulate landslide width, thickness and front velocity were measured using above and underwater cameras. Landslide 3-dimensional surface reconstruction and surface velocity properties were measured using a stereo particle image velocimetry (PIV) setup. The speckled pattern on the surface of the granular landslide allows for cross-correlation based PIV analysis. Wave runup was measured with resistance wave gauges along the slope and verified with video image processing. The measured landslide and tsunami data serve to validate and advance 3-dimensional numerical landslide tsunami and prediction models.

  11. Issues in Indonesia's tsunami disaster management system revealed after the 2004 Sumatra event

    Sugimoto, M.; Koyama, A.; Sun, H.; Kang, I.; Arakawa, T.; Kobayashi, J.; Nagata, M.; Nakanishi, R.; Nakano, M.; Noguchi, S.

    2014-12-01

    During the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, Indonesia had the largest number of casualties around 170,000. International society has supported tsunami early warning system, disaster management and disaster education for Indonesia. The past ten years saw several tsunamis in Indonesia after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Construction of tsunami early warning system was not in time the 2006 Pangandaran tsunami in Jawa Island. On the other hand, tsunami science has been developed for this decade. Tsunami early warning system has been developed by deep ocean pressure gauges (DART system), coastal tide gauges, GPS buoys and so on. Tsunami folklore has been collected and used education and connected with tsunami deposit. However, the tsunami early warning system and other science application were not widely used at once in Indonesia. GPS buoys were stolen by fishery people. One tsunami evacuation building are not used for evacuation by local people in Aceh Sumatra Island in 2012 though locations of the buildings were selected by scientific numerical simulation. Big panic and trafic accidents occurred by M8.6 earthquake in Aceh in April 2012 and reveal lack of disaster management planning in urban planning during reconstruction (Fig.1: Trafic jam in Banda Aceh, source MSN news photo). In addition to this, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami reveal fragilities tsunami preparedness. How should we decide to use the tsunami science? We research field situation in Aceh the after 10 years past from the 2004 Sumatra event. This presentation discusses issues of the gap between tsunami science and operations through field research in Aceh now.

  12. Event generators at BESⅢ

    PING Rong-Gang

    2008-01-01

    We present a brief remark and introduction to event generators for tau-charm physics currently used at BESⅢ,including KKMC,BesEvtGen,Bhlumi,Bhwide,Babayaga and inclusive Monte-Carlo event generators.This paper provides basic information on event generators for BESⅢ users.

  13. Comparison Between Tsunami Signals Generated by Different Source Models and the Observed Data of the Illapel 2015 Earthquake

    Calisto, Ignacia; Miller, Matthew; Constanzo, Iván

    2016-04-01

    A major interplate earthquake occurred on September 16th, 2015, near Illapel, central Chile. This event generated a tsunami of moderate height, however, one which caused significant near field damage. In this study, we model the tsunami produced by some rapid and preliminary fault models with the potential to be calculated within tens of minutes of the event origin time. We simulate tsunami signals from two different heterogeneous slip models, a homogeneous source based on parameters from the global CMT Project, and furthermore we used plate coupling data from GPS observations to construct a heterogeneous fault based on a priori knowledge of the subduction zone. We compare the simulated signals with the observed tsunami at tide gauges located along the Chilean coast and at offshore DART buoys. For this event, concerning rapid response, the homogeneous source and coupling model represent the tsunami at least as well as the heterogeneous sources. We suggest that the initial heterogeneous fault models could be better constrained with continuous GPS measurements in the rupture area, and additionally DART records directly in front of the rupture area, to improve the tsunami simulation based on quickly calculated models for near coastal areas. Additionally, in terms of tsunami modeling, the source estimated from prior plate coupling information in this case is representative of the event that later occurs; placing further importance on the need to monitor subduction zones with GPS.

  14. PREDICTING TSUNAMIS GENERATED BY 3D GRANULAR LANDSLIDES

    Mohammed, F.; Fritz, H. M.

    2009-12-01

    Landslides can trigger tsunamis with locally high amplitudes and runup, which can cause devastating effects in the near field region such as at Lituya Bay (1958), Papua New Guinea (1998) and Java (2006). Tsunamis generated by granular landslides were studied in the three dimensional NEES tsunami wave basin (TWB) at Oregon State University (OSU) based on the generalized Froude similarity. A novel pneumatic landslide generator was deployed to simulate deformable granular landslides with varying geometry and kinematics. Measurement techniques such as particle image velocimetry (PIV), multiple above and underwater video cameras, multiple acoustic transducer arrays (MTA), as well as resistance wave and runup gauges were applied. The wave generation was characterized by an extremely unsteady three phase flow consisting of the slide granulate, water and air entrained into the flow. The landslide deformation during the impact and the subsequent underwater motion was studied by underwater cameras while the MTA provided the shapes of the slide deposits on the basin bottom. The generated waves depend on determined non-dimensional landslide and water body parameters such as the slide Froude number and relative slide shape at impact, among others. The experimental data was used to obtain predictive equations for the wave amplitudes and time periods based on landslide characteristics at impact. The partition between wave crests and troughs departed from equipartition with wave profiles dominated either by a trough or a crest depending on the source. Attenuation functions of the leading wave crest amplitude, the lateral wave runup on the hill slope, the wave length and the time period were obtained to describe the wave behavior in the near field and to quantify the wave amplitude decay away from the landslide source. The measured wave celerity of the leading wave corresponds well to the theoretical approximation of the solitary wave speed while the trailing waves are considerably

  15. A Shift in Scientific Literacy: Earthquakes Generate Tsunamis

    Clark, Scott K.

    2010-09-01

    Scientific literacy is a fundamentally important prerequisite for decision making in this global age, particularly when it comes to decisions that affect our health, environment, technological advancement, and community development. A scientifically literate populace should be proficient at reading and interpreting science news articles [National Research Council, 1996]. For this to occur, terminology in news reports needs to be scientifically accurate. As scientists, we often resign ourselves to the reality that scientific accuracy in mainstream news reports sometimes falls short of what we would hope. However, in at least one case, the use of appropriate terminology in news reports has clearly improved. Prior to the devastating 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, nearly one in four newspaper and wire service articles that discussed earthquakes and tsunamis exclusively used the term “tidal wave” in lieu of “tsunami.” That ratio has decreased to less than one in 35 since the 26 December 2004 event. The apparent permanence of this lexical shift is demonstrated by the nearly unanimous use of the term tsunami in media reports of the 12 January 2010 Haitian and 27 February 2010 Chilean tsunamis, and provides an example of the impact natural disasters can have on scientific discourse in the news media.

  16. Boussinesq systems in two space dimensions over a variable bottom for the generation and propagation of tsunami waves

    Mitsotakis, Dimitrios

    2009-01-01

    Considered here are Boussinesq systems of equations of surface water wave theory over a variable bottom. A simplified such Boussinesq system is derived and solved numerically by the standard Galerkin-finite element method. We study by numerical means the generation of tsunami waves due to bottom deformation and we compare the results with analytical solutions of the linearized Euler equations. Moreover, we study tsunami wave propagation in the case of the Java 2006 event, comparing the result...

  17. Tsunamis

    ... to escape it. CAUTION - If there is noticeable recession in water away from the shoreline this is ... that has water around it. Tsunami water can cause floors to crack or walls to collapse. Use ...

  18. Event generator overview

    Due to their ability to provide detailed and quantitative predictions, the event generators have become an important part of studying relativistic heavy ion physics and of designing future experiments. In this talk, the author will briefly summarize recent progress in developing event generators for the relativistic heavy ion collisions

  19. Tsunami Generated by a Two-Phase Submarine Debris Flow

    Pudasaini, S. P.

    2012-04-01

    The general two-phase debris flow model proposed by Pudasaini (2011) is employed to study subaerial and submarine debris flows, and the tsunami generated by the debris impact at lakes and oceans. The model includes several essential physical aspects, including Mohr-Coulomb plasticity for the solid stress, while the fluid stress is modelled as a solid volume fraction gradient enhanced non-Newtonian viscous stress. The generalized interfacial momentum transfer includes the viscous drag, buoyancy, and the virtual mass. The generalized drag covers both the solid-like and fluid-like contributions, and can be applied to linear to quadratic drags. Strong couplings exist between the solid and the fluid momentum transfer. The advantage of the real two-phase debris flow model over classical single-phase or quasi-two-phase models is that by considering the solid (and/or the fluid) volume fraction appropriately, the initial mass can be divided into several (even mutually disjoint) parts; a dry (landslide or rock slide), a fluid (water or muddy water; e.g., dams, rivers), and a general debris mixture material as needed in real flow simulations. This offers a unique and innovative opportunity within a single framework to simultaneously simulate (a) the sliding debris (or landslide), (b) the water lake or ocean, (c) the debris impact at the lake or ocean, (d) tsunami generation and propagation, (e) mixing and separation between the solid and the fluid phases, and (f) sediment transport and deposition process in the bathymetric surface. The new model is applied to two-phase subaerial and submarine debris flows. Benchmark numerical simulations reveal that the dynamics of the debris impact induced tsunamis are fundamentally different than the tsunami generated by pure rock avalanche and landslides. Special attention is paid to study the basic features of the debris impact to the mountain lakes or oceans. This includes the generation, amplification and propagation of the multiple

  20. TSUNAMI INFORMATION SOURCES - PART 4

    Robert L. Wiegel

    2009-01-01

    I have expanded substantially my list of information sources on: tsunami generation (sources, impulsive mechanisms), propagation, effects of nearshore bathymetry, and wave run-up on shore - including physical (hydraulic) modeling and numerical modeling. This expanded list includes the subjects of field investigations of tsunamis soon after an event; damage effects in harbors on boats, ships, and facilities; tsunami wave-induced forces; damage by tsunami waves to structures on shore; scour/ero...

  1. Two-Layer Models for Landslide-Generated Tsunamis

    Kirby, J. T., Jr.; Nicolsky, D.; Ma, G.; Shi, F.; Hsu, T. J.; Schnyder, J. S. D.

    2014-12-01

    We describe the development of a model for landslide tsunami generation based on a depth-integrated, fully deformable lower layer, and apply the resulting model to several laboratory and field cases. The approach follows on earlier studies where models for the slide layer and overlying water layer are formulated in the depth integrated, shallow water approximation, with kinematic and pressure coupling between the layers. In the present study, we use the 3D nonhydrostatic model of Ma et al (2012) to retain fully dispersive behavior in the upper fluid layer. In perfect fluid applications for shallow or intermediate depth waves, the model has been shown to predict tsunami response to solid slides (Enet and Grilli, 2007) with good accuracy using only three vertical sigma levels, making it computationally competitive with weakly dispersive Boussinesq formulations using a single depth-integrated layer. The effect of non-hydrostatic acceleration effects in the lower, depth integrated layer (resulting from steep substrate slopes) is implemented using the approach of Yamazaki et al (2009), who used a layer-averaged approximation for vertical acceleration to correct the hydrostatic pressure distribution. The two coupled models are formulated using a finite volume, TVD approach. Lateral boundaries of the slide volume may be arbitrarily approached relative to the initial still water shoreline, and thus the triggering event may be either submarine, subaerial, or a combination of the two. In our first implementation, we assume the lower layer to be a simple, viscous Newtonian fluid, following the approach of Jiang and LeBlond (1994) as corrected by Fine et al (1998). An alternate model is also constructed based on a rheology model representing a granular or debris flow supported by intergranular stresses, following Savage and Hutter (1989) and Iverson (1997). Both models amount to the addition of a single mass and horizontal momentum equation to the three-layer perfect fluid

  2. Catalogue of tsunamis generated in Italy and in Côte d'Azur, France: a step towards a unified catalogue of tsunamis in Europe

    A. Maramai

    1996-06-01

    Full Text Available This work presents a catalogue of the tsunamis generated in the seas watering the Italian coasts, including the neighbouring area of Côte d'Azur (France. Events generated far from Italy and affecting the Italian coasts are not taken into account here. The catalogue, that we will also call the Quick-Look Catalog (QLC, is organised in three main sections that are named the Quick-Look Table, the Quick-Look Accounts File and the References File, having the respective abbreviations of QLT, QLAF and RF. The QLT is a synoptic table containing the relevant information available for each event, one table row corresponding to one event. More details are provided in the QLAF, where each event is dedicated a specific subsection: here the description of the tsunami includes all essential aspects that are suitably referenced and is preceded by a concise report concerning the tsunami cause. Lastly, the RF is the list of all the papers and publications quoted in the QLT and QLAF. Notice that efforts have been made to qualify each event by means of contemporaneous sources, although later sources and indirect sources, such as existing catalogues, have not been disregarded. Besides, specific recent studies on the events have been given special mention. In this work some general review of the past catalogues of tsunamis and of recent trends in the subject are expressed. Particularly, great attention is given to analysing the CFB of the Italian tsunamis due to Caputo and his collaborators (Caputo and Faita, 1984; Bedosti and Caputo, 1986, the acronym being formed by the ordered initials of the authors. Motivations clarifying the need for a new catalogue of the Italian tsunamis are illustrated circumstantially. The very different philosophies that are at the basis of the CFB and of the present QLC lead to quite diverse products and results, that are summarised by a table where the events included in the CFB and in the QLC are compared: the net effect of the rigorous

  3. Energy of tsunami waves generated by bottom motion

    Dutykh, Denys; Dias, Frédéric

    2009-01-01

    20 pages, 12 figures. Accepted to Proceedings of the Royal Society A. Other authors papers and supporting material can be downloaded at http://www.lama.univ-savoie.fr/~dutykh International audience In the vast literature on tsunami research, few articles have been devoted to energy issues. A theoretical investigation on the energy of waves generated by bottom motion is performed here. We start with the full incompressible Euler equations in the presence of a free surface and derive both...

  4. Physical Modeling of Landslide Generated Tsunamis in Fjords and around Conical Islands

    McFall, B. C.; Fritz, H. M.

    2012-12-01

    Tsunamis generated by landslides and volcanic island collapses account for some of the most extreme events recorded in history (Lituya Bay, Alaska, 1958) and can be particularly catastrophic in the near field region. Source and runup scenarios based on real world events using generalized Froude similarity are physically modeled in the three dimensional NEES tsunami wave basin (TWB) at Oregon State University. A novel pneumatic landslide tsunami generator (LTG) was deployed to simulate landslides with varying geometry and kinematics. The LTG consists of a sliding box filled with up to 1,350 kg of naturally rounded river gravel which is accelerated by means of four pneumatic pistons down the 2H: 1V slope. The granular landslides are launched towards the water surface at velocities of up to 5 m/s resulting in corresponding landslide Froude numbers at impact in the range 1 cameras, a stereo particle image velocimetry (PIV) setup and a multi-transducer acoustic array (MTA). Three-dimensional landslide surfaces are reconstructed and the instantaneous landslide surface kinematics measured using the stereo PIV setup. Above and underwater cameras measure the slide deformation at impact and underwater runout, while the slide deposit is measured with the MTA on the basin floor. Runup wave gauges along with overlapping video cameras record the onshore and offshore runup. Empirical equations for predicting wave amplitude, wave period, wave length and near-source runup are obtained. The generated waves are primarily dependent on non-dimensional landslide and water body parameters such as the impact landslide Froude number and relative landslide shape among others. Energy conversion rates between the landslide motion and the generated wave train are quantified. The lateral edge wave and offshore wave propagation velocities are compared against wave theories. Unique characteristics in the wave and runup data caused by topographic and bathymetric features are analyzed. A localized

  5. Tsunami survey expedition: preliminary investigation of Maldivian coral reefs two weeks after the event.

    Goffredo, Stefano; Piccinetti, Corrado; Zaccanti, Francesco

    2007-08-01

    On December 26th 2004, a earthquake west of Sumatra generated a devastating tsunami. Hundreds of thousands of people fell victim. Economic losses were greatest in those countries dependant on tourism. The impact in the Maldives on persons and things was modest. Immediately following the event and notwithstanding the lack of scientific data, the mass media gave catastrophic reports on the state of coral reefs in the area. This paper reports on the first survey on coral reefs in the Maldives after the Tsunami. Ocean walls, passes, inner reefs, and shoals in the North and South Malé atolls, were surveyed two weeks after the event. Significant damage was recorded in the passes in the South Malé atoll. Our observations showed that the damage was more or less extensive depending on latitude and topography. Sri Lanka may have broken the wave's rush, reducing the extent of the impact on northern atolls. The water's acceleration inside the passes was so intense as to cause reef collapses. The observed damage represents a minimum fraction of the entire coral reef system. Tourist perception of the area seems unchanged. These data may be used to disseminate correct information about the state of Maldives coral reefs, which would be useful in relaunching local economy. PMID:17180420

  6. Identification of earthquakes that generate tsunamis in Java and Nusa Tenggara using rupture duration analysis

    Pribadi, S., E-mail: sugengpribadimsc@gmail.com [Tsunami Warning Information Division, Indonesian Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG), Jalan Angkasa I No. 2, Jakarta13920 and Graduate Student of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Technology, Bandung Institute of T (Indonesia); Puspito, N. T.; Yudistira, T.; Afnimar,; Ibrahim, G. [Global Geophysics Research Group, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB), Jalan Ganesha 10, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia); Laksono, B. I. [Database Maintenance Division, Indonesian Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG), Jalan Angkasa I No.2, Jakarta 13920 (Indonesia); Adnan, Z. [Database Maintenance Division, Indonesian Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG), Jalan Angkasa I No. 2, Jakarta 13920 and Graduate Student of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Technology, Bandung Institute of Technol (Indonesia)

    2014-09-25

    Java and Nusa Tenggara are the tectonically active of Sunda arc. This study discuss the rupture duration as a manifestation of the power of earthquake-generated tsunami. We use the teleseismic (30° - 90°) body waves with high-frequency energy Seismometer is from IRIS network as amount 206 broadband units. We applied the Butterworth high bandpass (1 - 2 Hz) filtered. The arrival and travel times started from wave phase of P - PP which based on Jeffrey Bullens table with TauP program. The results are that the June 2, 1994 Banyuwangi and the July 17, 2006 Pangandaran earthquakes identified as tsunami earthquakes with long rupture duration (To > 100 second), medium magnitude (7.6 < Mw < 7.9) and located near the trench. The others are 4 tsunamigenic earthquakes and 3 inland earthquakes with short rupture duration start from To > 50 second which depend on its magnitude. Those events are located far from the trench.

  7. Identification of earthquakes that generate tsunamis in Java and Nusa Tenggara using rupture duration analysis

    Java and Nusa Tenggara are the tectonically active of Sunda arc. This study discuss the rupture duration as a manifestation of the power of earthquake-generated tsunami. We use the teleseismic (30° - 90°) body waves with high-frequency energy Seismometer is from IRIS network as amount 206 broadband units. We applied the Butterworth high bandpass (1 - 2 Hz) filtered. The arrival and travel times started from wave phase of P - PP which based on Jeffrey Bullens table with TauP program. The results are that the June 2, 1994 Banyuwangi and the July 17, 2006 Pangandaran earthquakes identified as tsunami earthquakes with long rupture duration (To > 100 second), medium magnitude (7.6 50 second which depend on its magnitude. Those events are located far from the trench

  8. The 30 December 2002 landslide-induced tsunamis in Stromboli: sequence of the events reconstructed from the eyewitness accounts

    S. Tinti

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available On 30 December 2002 the coast of the volcanic island of Stromboli, in the Tyrrhenian sea, Italy, was attacked by two tsunamis generated by landslides that took place on the north-west flank of the volcano. The landslides and the tsunamis represented the most impressive and threatening episodes of a strong effusive eruption, started on 28 December from a new vent which opened close to the north-east crater of the volcano. In spite of the intensified monitoring carried out in response to the eruption, the landslides and the ensuing tsunamis were not foreseen, and the available instrumental data are insufficient to allow a precise reconstruction of the sequence of the events. The seismic network recorded two main landslides along the steep slope of Sciara del Fuoco, with onset around 13:15 and 13:23 local time (GMT+1. The tsunamis were the direct consequence of the mass movements. Three main post-event surveys helped make assessment on the wave impact on the coast. In this paper the attention is focussed on the accounts of the eye-witnesses, that help us clarify and understand what happened. People in the source area (Sciara del Fuoco reported a small-volume subaerial slide taking place first, then a sharp cut forming in the sea water down to the sea floor (about 10–20 m deep and propagating almost parallel to the coastline, be concomitantly associated with a sea retreat and a subsequent sea advance. It is suggested here that the cut was the effect of a large submarine landslide that detached from very close to the coast and produced the 13:15 signal in the recorded seismograms. The second, mostly subaerial, slump was observed to slide down 7–8 min later and to excite a train of waves some distance offshore. Not all the witnesses realised that two distinct tsunamis occurred. The tsunami period was probably in the order of 100 s, but shorter period crests were seen to travel on the top of the long-period waves by several persons. The duration of

  9. Generation of the September 29, 2009 Samoa Tsunami: Examination of a Possible Non-Double Couple Component (Invited)

    Geist, E. L.; Kirby, S. H.; Ross, S.; Dartnell, P.

    2009-12-01

    A non-double couple component associated with the Mw=8.0 September 29, 2009 Samoa earthquake is investigated to explain direct tsunami arrivals at deep-ocean pressure sensors (i.e., DART stations). In particular, we seek a tsunami generation model that correctly predicts the polarity of first motions: negative at the Apia station (#51425) NW of the epicenter and positive at the Tonga (#51426) and Aukland (#54401) stations south of the epicenter. Slip on a single, finite fault corresponding to either nodal plane of the best-fitting double couple fails to predict the positive first-motion polarity observed at the southerly (Tonga and Aukland) DART stations. The Samoa earthquake has a significant non-double component as measured by the compensated linear vector dipole (CLVD) ratio that ranges from |ɛ|=0.15 (USGS CMT) to |ɛ| =0.37 (Global CMT). To test what effect the non-double component has on tsunami generation, the static elastic displacement field at the sea floor is computed from the full moment tensor. This displacement field represents the initial conditions for tsunami propagation computed using a finite-difference approximation to the linear shallow-water wave equations. The tsunami waveforms calculated from the full moment tensor are consistent with the observed polarities at all of the DART stations. The static displacement field is then decomposed into double-couple and non-double couple components to determine the relative contribution of each to the tsunami wavefield. Although a point-source approximation to the tsunami source is typically inadequate at near-field and regional distances, finite-fault inversions of the 2009 Samoa earthquake indicate that peak slip is spatially concentrated near the hypocenter, suggesting that the point-source representation may be acceptable in this case. Generation of the 2009 Samoa tsunami may involve earthquake rupture on multiple faults and/or along curved faults, both of which are observed from multibeam bathymetry

  10. Numerical Modelling of Tsunamis Generated by Hypothetical Landslides in the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia

    Rabinovich, A. B.; Thomson, R. E.; Bornhold, B. D.; Fine, I. V.; Kulikov, E. A.

    A modified and corrected version of the viscous slide model of Jiang and LeBlond (1994) is used to assess the tsunami risk associated with hypothetical underwater slope failures in two coastal areas of British Columbia having potentially unstable sediment deposits: (a) Malaspina Strait, separating the mainland coast and Texada Island in the central Strait of Georgia; and (b) Roberts Bank on the foreslope of the Fraser River Delta in the southern Strait of Georgia. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the capability of the model for tsunami risk assessment and to improve upon previous studies of tsunami risk in the region based on reasonable submarine landslide scenarios. The potential risk from tsunamis associated with slide failures has been examined, but the likelihood of failure events themselves was not considered. For the Malaspina Strait scenarios, simulated tsunamis are generated by failure of a lobe of perched sediment situ ated on the slope of eastern Texada Island. Failure as a flow slide of the estimated 1,250,000 m3 of sediment generates wave troughs reaching -4.9 m and trough-to-crest heights of 6 to 8 m along the coast of Texada Island. At Cape Cockburn, on the opposite side of the strait, wave heights of 1.5 to 2.0 m are produced. For Roberts Bank, simulated waves are examined for two separate failure scenarios. The larger slide (Case 1) involves the failure of a sediment lobe with lateral dimensions of 7 × 3 km2 and volume of 0.75 km3 while the smaller slide (Case 2) fails a sediment lobe with dimensions of 4 × 2.6 km2 and volume of 0.23 km3. Computations were made both for high (+3 m) and low (-3 m) tide conditions. For both failure volumes, maximum wave amplitudes (up to 18 m for Case 1 and 8 m for Case 2) occur on the coasts of Mayne and Galiano Islands, opposite the source area. Wave amplitudes are much smaller (1 to 4 m) on the mainl and coast because of the reflection of the initial waves from Roberts Bank. Additional numerical

  11. Identification of elements at risk for a credible tsunami event for Istanbul

    U. Hancilar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Physical and social elements at risk are identified for a credible tsunami event for Istanbul. For this purpose, inundation maps resulting from probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 yr are utilised in combination with the geo-coded inventories of building stock, lifeline systems and demographic data. The built environment on Istanbul's shorelines that is exposed to tsunami inundation comprises residential, commercial, industrial, public (governmental/municipal, schools, hospitals, sports and religious, infrastructure (car parks, garages, fuel stations, electricity transformer buildings and military buildings, as well as piers and ports, gas tanks and stations and other urban elements (e.g., recreational facilities. Along the Marmara Sea shore, Tuzla shipyards and important port and petrochemical facilities at Ambarlı are expected to be exposed to tsunami hazard. Significant lifeline systems of the city of Istanbul such as natural gas, electricity, telecommunication and sanitary and waste-water transmission, are also under the threat of tsunamis. In terms of social risk, it is estimated that there are about 32 000 inhabitants exposed to tsunami hazard.

  12. A Hybrid Tsunami Risk Model for Japan

    Haseemkunju, A. V.; Smith, D. F.; Khater, M.; Khemici, O.; Betov, B.; Scott, J.

    2014-12-01

    Around the margins of the Pacific Ocean, denser oceanic plates slipping under continental plates cause subduction earthquakes generating large tsunami waves. The subducting Pacific and Philippine Sea plates create damaging interplate earthquakes followed by huge tsunami waves. It was a rupture of the Japan Trench subduction zone (JTSZ) and the resultant M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake that caused the unprecedented tsunami along the Pacific coast of Japan on March 11, 2011. EQECAT's Japan Earthquake model is a fully probabilistic model which includes a seismo-tectonic model describing the geometries, magnitudes, and frequencies of all potential earthquake events; a ground motion model; and a tsunami model. Within the much larger set of all modeled earthquake events, fault rupture parameters for about 24000 stochastic and 25 historical tsunamigenic earthquake events are defined to simulate tsunami footprints using the numerical tsunami model COMCOT. A hybrid approach using COMCOT simulated tsunami waves is used to generate inundation footprints, including the impact of tides and flood defenses. Modeled tsunami waves of major historical events are validated against observed data. Modeled tsunami flood depths on 30 m grids together with tsunami vulnerability and financial models are then used to estimate insured loss in Japan from the 2011 tsunami. The primary direct report of damage from the 2011 tsunami is in terms of the number of buildings damaged by municipality in the tsunami affected area. Modeled loss in Japan from the 2011 tsunami is proportional to the number of buildings damaged. A 1000-year return period map of tsunami waves shows high hazard along the west coast of southern Honshu, on the Pacific coast of Shikoku, and on the east coast of Kyushu, primarily associated with major earthquake events on the Nankai Trough subduction zone (NTSZ). The highest tsunami hazard of more than 20m is seen on the Sanriku coast in northern Honshu, associated with the JTSZ.

  13. Numerical simulation of the 2002 Northern Rhodes Slide (Greece) and evaluation of the generated tsunami

    Zaniboni, Filippo; Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Tinti, Stefano

    2013-04-01

    Small landslides are very common along the submarine margins, due to steep slopes and continuous material deposition that increment mass instability and supply collapse occurrences, even without earthquake triggering. This kind of events can have relevant consequences when occurring close to the coast, because they are characterized by sudden change of velocity and relevant speed achievement, reflecting into high tsunamigenic potential. This is the case for example of the slide of Rhodes Island (Greece), named Northern Rhodes Slide (NRS), where unusual 3-4 m waves were registered on 24 March 2002, provoking some damage in the coastal stretch of the city of Rhodes (Papadopoulos et al., 2007). The event was not associated with earthquake occurrence, and eyewitnesses supported the hypothesis of a non-seismic source for the tsunami, placed 1 km offshore. Subsequent marine geophysical surveys (Sakellariou et al., 2002) evidenced the presence of several detachment niches at about 300-400 m depth along the northern steep slope, one of which can be considered responsible of the observed tsunami, fitting with the previously mentioned supposition. In this work, that is carried out in the frame of the European funded project NearToWarn, we evaluated the tsunami effects due to the NRS by means of numerical modelling: after having reconstructed the sliding body basing on morphological assumptions (obtaining an esteemed volume of 33 million m3), we simulated the sliding motion through the in-house built code UBO-BLOCK1, adopting a Lagrangian approach and splitting the sliding mass into a "chain" of interacting blocks. This provides the complete dynamics of the landslide, including the shape changes that relevantly influence the tsunami generation. After the application of an intermediate code, accounting for the slide impulse filtering through the water depth, the tsunami propagation in the sea around the island of Rhodes and up to near coasts of Turkey was simulated via the

  14. POTENTIAL OF TSUNAMI GENERATION ALONG THE COLOMBIA/ECUADOR SUBDUCTION MARGIN AND THE DOLORES-GUAYAQUIL MEGA-THRUST

    George Pararas-Carayannis

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The Colombia/Ecuador subduction zone is a region where high seismic stress is presently accumulating. Statistical probability studies and GPS measurements of crustal deformation indicate that the region has an increased potential to generate in the near future a major or great tsunamigenic earthquake similar to the 1979 or 1906. Although most of the major earthquakes along this margin usually generate local tsunamis, the recurrence of a great mega-thrust, inter-plate earthquake, similar in magnitude and rupture to the 1906 event (Mw=8.8, rupture 600 km., can generate a tsunami with destructive near and far-field impacts. To understand the potential for such destructive tsunami generation in this region, the present study examines and evaluates: a the controlling inter-plate coupling mechanisms of the tectonic regime of the margin – including lithospheric structure deformation, sea-floor relief and the subduction or accretion of highly folded, hydrated sediments along the seismogenic zone of southern Colombia/North Ecuador; b the seismo-dynamics and role in tsunami generation as affected by the Carnegie Ridge’s oblique subduction beneath the South American continent; and c the seismotectonic extensional processes in the vicinity of the Gulf of Guayaquil-Tumbes Basin and how the northwestward movement of the North Andes block away from the South American continent along the Dolores Guayaquil mega-thrust and the resulting strain rotation may cause sudden detachment, décollement and deformation, with the potential for local tsunami generation that may affect the Gulf of Guayaquil and other coastal areas along southern Ecuador.

  15. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis

    Thio, H. K.; Ichinose, G. A.; Somerville, P. G.; Polet, J.

    2006-12-01

    The recent tsunami disaster caused by the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake has focused our attention to the hazard posed by large earthquakes that occur under water, in particular subduction zone earthquakes, and the tsunamis that they generate. Even though these kinds of events are rare, the very large loss of life and material destruction caused by this earthquake warrant a significant effort towards the mitigation of the tsunami hazard. For ground motion hazard, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has become a standard practice in the evaluation and mitigation of seismic hazard to populations in particular with respect to structures, infrastructure and lifelines. Its ability to condense the complexities and variability of seismic activity into a manageable set of parameters greatly facilitates the design of effective seismic resistant buildings but also the planning of infrastructure projects. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) achieves the same goal for hazards posed by tsunami. There are great advantages of implementing such a method to evaluate the total risk (seismic and tsunami) to coastal communities. The method that we have developed is based on the traditional PSHA and therefore completely consistent with standard seismic practice. Because of the strong dependence of tsunami wave heights on bathymetry, we use a full waveform tsunami waveform computation in lieu of attenuation relations that are common in PSHA. By pre-computing and storing the tsunami waveforms at points along the coast generated for sets of subfaults that comprise larger earthquake faults, we can efficiently synthesize tsunami waveforms for any slip distribution on those faults by summing the individual subfault tsunami waveforms (weighted by their slip). This efficiency make it feasible to use Green's function summation in lieu of attenuation relations to provide very accurate estimates of tsunami height for probabilistic calculations, where one typically computes

  16. New evidence for the Storegga tsunami event in lake basins systems: western Norway

    Waldmann, N.; Vasskog, K.; Nesje, A.; Chapron, E.; Ariztegui, D.; Bondevik, S.

    2012-12-01

    Between 8180 and 8070 years ago, one of the largest known submarine slides occurred off the coast of mid-Norway. This event displaced about 3500 km3 of sediment, affected an area of 95,000 km2 and triggered a large tsunami that inundated coastal areas around the North Atlantic and the North Sea. In this contribution, we present first geological evidence from a high resolution geophysical survey and shallow sediment coring for the presence of a large tsunamite related to the Storegga event, in shallow lacustrine basins of Western Norway. A unique Rapidly Deposited Layer (RDL) discovered in the sedimentary infill of the lakes Nerfloen and Oppstrynsvatnet (29 m a.s.l.) is interpreted as a deposit from this tsunami. Two radiocarbon dates from within the deposit itself yield a combined age estimate of 8180-8030 cal a BP (2σ) for the RDL, which is in agreement with robust age-depth modelling of the overlying sediments and strongly supporting the correlation with the Storegga event. In the outer lake basins, where both high-resolution seismic profiles and sediment cores are available, the up to 3.5 m thick RDL covers an area of ~1.1 km2 and features an estimated sediment volume of ~1.2x106 m3. More tentatively we suggest that a ~5x106 m3 semi-transparent seismic unit in the main Oppstrynsvatnet basin could also be connected to the tsunami. Tsunami deposits of this magnitude have not been documented previously in Norwegian lakes, suggesting that the physiographic setting of the study area may have significantly amplified the tsunami wave.

  17. Tsunami generation near Japan by Earthquakes Along-strike Single Segmentation and Along-dip Double Segmentation

    Koyama, Junji; Tsuzuki, Motohiro

    2013-04-01

    After the 2011 Tohoku-oki megathrust earthquake of Mw9.0, we have proposed a hypothesis that megathrust earthquakes worldwide occur Along-dip Double Segmentation (ADDS) or Along-strike Single Segmentation (ASSS). The former is characterized by the apparent absence of earthquakes in the aligned seismic segments along the Japan trench as opposed to those along the Japan Islands that generate repeated smaller earthquakes (ADDS), where the 2011 Tohoku-oki megathrust occurred. Meanwhile, the latter is by a weak seismic activity before the main event all over the subduction zone, where we find aligned seismic segments along the subduction zone from the trench to the island-arc (ASSS). A typical example of ASSS is the Nankai trough, Japan, where future great earthquakes are expected. The 1960 and 2010 Chile megathrusts occurred in ASSS. In and near Japan, ADDS earthquake activity is restrictively found along the Pacific side of Hokkaido and Tohoku regions and the Hyuganada, Kyushu. The rest of seismic activity near Japan is classified into ASSS. Comparing tsunami magnitude m from local tsunami-wave heights and seismic moment Mo from long-period surface-waves of 61 earthquakes from 1923 in and near Japan, we found that tsunami-wave heights of ASSS earthquakes are almost two times larger than those of ADDS's. This is also confirmed by studying tsunami magnitude Mt evaluated from teleseismic tsunami-wave heights. The reason of this different excitation between ADDS and ASSS is considered to be due to either (1) shallower focal depths for ASSS give rise to larger ocean bottom deformation, resulting in larger tsunami excitation, (2) larger dip-angles of fault planes for ASSS, (3) three dimensional ocean-bottom structures, such as troughs, trenches and continental shelves, or (4) ocean bottom topography nearby causes the focusing of tsunami waves. (1) is the conclusion that we would like to derive. (2) Speaking about the effect of dip angles to the maximum ocean bottom

  18. Tsunami focusing

    Spillane, M. C.; Titov, V. V.; Moore, C. W.; Aydin, B.; Kanoglu, U.; Synolakis, C. E.

    2010-12-01

    Tsunamis are long waves generated by impulsive disturbances of the seafloor or coastal topography caused by earthquakes, submarine/subaerial mass failures. They evolve substantially through three dimensional - 2 spatial+1 temporal - spreading as the initial surface deformation propagates. This is referred to as its directivity and focusing. A directivity function was first defined by Ben-Menahem (1961, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 51, 401-435) using the source length and the rupture velocity. Okal (2003, Pure Appl. Geophys. 160, 2189-2221) discussed the details of the analysis of Ben-Menahem (1961) and demonstrated the distinct difference between the directivity patterns of landslide and earthquake generated tsunamis. Marchuk and Titov (1989, Proc. IUGG/IOC International Tsunami Symposium, July 31 - August 3, 1989, Novosibirsk, USSR. p.11-17) described the process of tsunami focusing for a rectangular initial deformation combining positive and negative surface displacements. They showed the existence of a focusing point where abnormal tsunami wave height can be registered. Here, first, we describe and quantify numerically tsunami focusing processes for a combined positive and negative - N-wave type - strip source representing the 17 July 1998 Papua New Guinea and 17 July 2006 Java events. Specifically, considering field observations and tsunami focusing, we propose a source mechanism for the 17 July 2006 Java event. Then, we introduce a new analytical solution for a strip source propagating over a flat bottom using the linear shallow-water wave equation. The analytical solution of Carrier and Yeh (2005, Computer Modeling In Engineering & Sciences, 10(2), 113-121) appears to have two drawbacks. One, the solution involves singular complete elliptic integral of the first kind which results in a self-similar approximate solution for the far-field at large times. Two, only the propagation of Gaussian shaped finite-crest wave profiles can be modeled. Our solution is not only

  19. THE POTENTIAL OF TSUNAMI GENERATION ALONG THE MAKRAN SUBDUCTION ZONE IN THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. CASE STUDY: THE EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI OF NOVEMBER 28, 1945

    George Pararas-Carayannis

    2006-01-01

    well as along the western end of the subduction zone. In fact, recent seismic activity indicates that a large earthquake is possible in the region west of the 1945 event. Such an earthquake can be expected to generate a destructive tsunami.Additionally, the on-going subduction of the two micro-plates has dragged tertiary marine sediments into an accretionary prism - thus forming the Makran coastal region, Thick sediments, that have accumulated along the deltaic coastlines from the erosion of the Himalayas, particularly along the eastern Sindh region near the Indus River delta, have the potential to fail and cause large underwater tsunamigenic slides. Even smaller magnitude earthquakes could trigger such underwater landslides. Finally, an earthquake similar to that of 1945 in the Makran zone of subduction, has the potential of generating a bookshelf type of failure within the compacted sediments – as that associated with the “silent” and slow 1992 Nicaragua earthquake – thus contributing to a more destructive tsunami. In conclusion, the Makran subduction zone has a relatively high potential for large tsunamigenic earthquakes.

  20. Event generator for pp interactions

    Phenomenological event generator for pp interactions at energy Elab=70 GeV was created. It is based on the Gaussian form of the matrix element of the interaction. The final states involve two protons and pions. Parameters of the generator are fitted for experimental cross-section data. The energy and momentum conservation laws are strongly satisfied. The event generator provides the smallness of the transverse momentum of the final particles

  1. Assessment of tsunami hazard for the American Pacific coast from southern Mexico to northern Peru

    B. Brizuela; Armigliato, A.; S. Tinti

    2013-01-01

    Central America has been struck by at least 49 tsunamis between 1539 and 1996. As many as 37 of these events occurred at the Pacific Coast, and 31 were generated by earthquakes. Some of the events have been destructive, but despite this, tsunamis are an underrated hazard in Central America: people are not aware that they are at risk and even recent tsunami events have been forgotten. Recent studies, following the destructive tsunami occurred in Nicaragua in 1992, have reveal...

  2. Tsunami Squares Approach to Landslide-Generated Waves: Application to Gongjiafang Landslide, Three Gorges Reservoir, China

    Xiao, Lili; Ward, Steven N.; Wang, Jiajia

    2015-12-01

    We have developed a new method, named "Tsunami Squares", for modeling of landslides and landslide-generated waves. The approach has the advantages of the previous "Tsunami Ball" method, for example, separate, special treatment for dry and wet cells is not needed, but obviates the use of millions of individual particles. Simulations now can be expanded to spatial scales not previously possible. The new method accelerates and transports "squares" of material that are fractured into new squares in such a way as to conserve volume and linear momentum. The simulation first generates landslide motion as constrained by direct observation. It then computes induced water waves, given assumptions about energy and momentum transfer. We demonstrated and validated the Tsunami Squares method by modeling the 2008 Three Gorges Reservoir Gongjiafang landslide and river tsunami. The landslide's progressive failure, the wave generated, and its subsequent propagation and run-up are well reproduced. On a laptop computer Tsunami Square simulations flexibly handle a wide variety of waves and flows, and are excellent techniques for risk estimation.

  3. Numerical simulations of tsunami generated by underwater volcanic explosions at Karymskoye lake (Kamchatka, Russia and Kolumbo volcano (Aegean Sea, Greece

    M. Ulvrová

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Increasing human activities along the coasts of the world arise the necessity to assess tsunami hazard from different sources (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic activity. In this paper, we simulate tsunamis generated by underwater volcanic explosions from (1 a submerged vent in a shallow water lake (Karymskoye Lake, Kamchatka, and (2 from Kolumbo submarine volcano (7 km NE of Santorini, Aegean Sea, Greece. The 1996 tsunami in Karymskoye lake is a well-documented example and thus serves as a case-study for validating the calculations. The numerical model reproduces realistically the tsunami runups measured onshore. Systematic numerical study of tsunamis generated by explosions of Kolumbo volcano is then conducted for a wide range of energies. Results show that in case of reawakening, Kolumbo volcano might represent a significant tsunami hazard for the northern, eastern and southern coasts of Santorini, even for small-power explosions.

  4. Lost tsunami

    Pareschi, M. T.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia; Boschi, E.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione AC, Roma, Italia; Favalli, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia

    2006-01-01

    Numerical simulations support the occurrence of a catastrophic tsunami impacting all of the eastern Mediterranean in early Holocene. The tsunami was triggered by a debris avalanche from Mt. Etna (Sicily, Italy) which entered the Ionian Sea in the order of minutes. Simulations show that the resulting tsunami waves were able to destabilize soft marine sediments across the Ionian Sea floor. This generated the well-known, sporadically located, ‘‘homogenite’’ deposits of th...

  5. The Tsunami Geology of the Bay of Bengal Shores and the Predecessors of the 2004 Indian Ocean Event

    Rajendran, C.; Rajendran, K.; Seshachalam, S.; Andrade, V.

    2010-12-01

    The 2004 Aceh-Andaman earthquake exceeded the known Indian Ocean precedents by its 1,300-km long fault rupture and the height and reach of its tsunami. Literature of the ancient Chola dynasty (AD 9-11 centuries) of south India and the archeological excavations allude to a sea flood that crippled the historic port at Kaveripattinam, a trading hub for Southeast Asia. Here, we combine a variety of data from the rupture zone as well as the distant shores to build a tsunami history of the Bay of Bengal. A compelling set of geological proxies of possible tsunami inundation include boulder beds of Car Nicobar Island in the south and the East Island in the northernmost Andaman, a subsided fossil mangrove forest near Port Blair and a washover sedimentation identified in the Kaveripattinam coast of Tamil Nadu, south India. We have developed an extensive chronology for these geological proxies, and we analyze them in conjunction with the historical information culled from different sources for major sea surges along the Bay of Bengal shores. The age data and the depositional characteristics of these geological proxies suggest four major tsunamis in the last 2000 years in the Bay of Bengal, including the 1881 Car Nicobar tsunami. Among these, the evidence for the event of 800-1200 cal yr BP is fairly well represented on both sides of the Bay of Bengal shores. Thus, we surmise that the 800-1000-year old tsunami mimics the transoceanic reach of the 2004 Indian Ocean and the age constraints also agree with the sea surge during the Chola period. We also obtained clues for a possible medieval tsunami from the islands occurred probably a few hundred years after the Chola tsunami, but its size cannot constrained, nor its source. The convergence of ages and the multiplicity of sites would suggest at least one full size predecessor of the 2004 event 1000-800 years ago.

  6. Evidence for a Mega-Tsunami Generated by Giant Flank Collapse of Fogo Volcano, Cape Verde

    Ramalho, R. S.; Madeira, J.; Helffrich, G. R.; Schaefer, J. M.; Winckler, G.; Quartau, R.; Adena, K.

    2013-12-01

    Mega-tsunamis generated by ocean island flank collapses are expected to be some of the most hazardous forces of nature, yet evidence for their near-source effects and inferred high run-ups so far is scarce or hotly debated. A newly discovered deposit on the northern coast of Santiago Island (Cape Verde), however, documents the magnitude and run-up height associated with this kind of event. Additionally to chaotic conglomerates distributed from sea-level up to 100 m elevation standing on slopes as steep as 20°, the deposit comprises a number of scattered megaclasts of submarine lava flows, limestone and tuff. The megaclasts are presently located over a higher substructural slope built on younger subaerial lava flows and at elevations ranging 160-220 m a.s.l. All megaclasts correspond to lithologies that crop out exclusively in nearby cliff faces. The origin of this deposit is consequently attributed to an exceptional wave that plucked blocks from the cliff face, transported them inland and deposited them over the higher slopes of the volcanic edifice. The distribution of the megaclasts, together with the local geomorphology, is in agreement with a tsunami that approached the island edifice from the west and was refracted along its northern flank, flooding a series of northwest-oriented valleys. This suggests that the well-known flank collapse of Fogo volcano, located 55 km west of Santiago, is the most likely source, a hypothesis being tested with surface exposure dating. The inferred run-up exceeded 200 m and is consistent with numerical simulations by Paris et al. 2011, implying that the present Fogo island morphology probably developed by at least one giant flank collapse with devastating near-source effects.

  7. Warning and prevention based on estimates with large uncertainties: the case of low-frequency and large-impact events like tsunamis

    Tinti, Stefano; Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Zaniboni, Filippo

    2013-04-01

    Geoscientists deal often with hazardous processes like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, hurricanes, etc., and their research is aimed not only to a better understanding of the physical processes, but also to provide assessment of the space and temporal evolution of a given individual event (i.e. to provide short-term prediction) and of the expected evolution of a group of events (i.e. to provide statistical estimates referred to a given return period, and a given geographical area). One of the main issues of any scientific method is how to cope with measurement errors, a topic which in case of forecast of ongoing or of future events translates into how to deal with forecast uncertainties. In general, the more data are available and processed to make a prediction, the more accurate the prediction is expected to be if the scientific approach is sound, and the smaller the associated uncertainties are. However, there are several important cases where assessment is to be made with insufficient data or insufficient time for processing, which leads to large uncertainties. Two examples can be given taken from tsunami science, since tsunamis are rare events that may have destructive power and very large impact. One example is the case of warning for a tsunami generated by a near-coast earthquake, which is an issue at the focus of the European funded project NearToWarn. Warning has to be launched before tsunami hits the coast, that is in a few minutes after its generation. This may imply that data collected in such a short time are not yet enough for an accurate evaluation, also because the implemented monitoring system (if any) could be inadequate (f.i. one reason of inadequacy could be that implementing a dense instrumental network could be judged too expensive for rare events) The second case is the long term prevention from tsunami strikes. Tsunami infrequency may imply that the historical record for a given piece of coast is too short to capture a statistical

  8. Chapter 3 – Phenomenology of Tsunamis: Statistical Properties from Generation to Runup

    Geist, Eric L.

    2015-01-01

    Observations related to tsunami generation, propagation, and runup are reviewed and described in a phenomenological framework. In the three coastal regimes considered (near-field broadside, near-field oblique, and far field), the observed maximum wave amplitude is associated with different parts of the tsunami wavefield. The maximum amplitude in the near-field broadside regime is most often associated with the direct arrival from the source, whereas in the near-field oblique regime, the maximum amplitude is most often associated with the propagation of edge waves. In the far field, the maximum amplitude is most often caused by the interaction of the tsunami coda that develops during basin-wide propagation and the nearshore response, including the excitation of edge waves, shelf modes, and resonance. Statistical distributions that describe tsunami observations are also reviewed, both in terms of spatial distributions, such as coseismic slip on the fault plane and near-field runup, and temporal distributions, such as wave amplitudes in the far field. In each case, fundamental theories of tsunami physics are heuristically used to explain the observations.

  9. Recent Tsunami Highlights Need for Awareness of Tsunami Duration

    Kelly, Annabel; Dengler, Lori A.; Uslu, Burak; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Yim, Solomon C.; Bergen, Kristian J.

    2006-12-01

    On Wednesday, 15 November 2006, Crescent City Harbor, in Del Norte County, Calif., was hit by surges resulting from the tsunami generated by the Mw=8.3 Kuril Islands earthquake. The strong currents caused an estimated US $700,000 to $1 million in losses to the small boat basin at Citizen's Dock, destroying or damaging three floating docks and causing minor damage to several boats (Figure 1). The event highlighted a persistent problem for tsunami hazard mitigation: Most people are still unaware that the first tsunami waves rarely are the largest and that the potential for damaging waves may last for many hours.

  10. A two-layer granular landslide model for tsunami wave generation: Theory and computation

    Ma, Gangfeng; Kirby, James T.; Hsu, Tian-Jian; Shi, Fengyan

    2015-09-01

    We develop and test a new two-layer model for granular landslide motion and tsunami wave generation. The landslide is described as a saturated granular flow, accounting for intergranular stresses governed by Coulomb friction. Tsunami wave generation is simulated by the three-dimensional non-hydrostatic wave model NHWAVE, which is capable of capturing wave dispersion efficiently using a small number of discretized vertical levels. Depth-averaged governing equations for the granular landslide are derived in a slope-oriented coordinate system, taking into account the dynamic interaction between the lower-layer granular landslide and upper-layer water motion. The model is tested against an analytical solution for granular dam-break flow and 2D and 3D laboratory experiments on impulsive wave generation by subaerial granular landslides. Model results illustrate a complex interplay between the granular landslide and tsunami waves, and they reasonably predict not only the tsunami wave generation but also the granular landslide motion from initiation to deposition.

  11. Tsunami-generated magnetic fields may constrain focal mechanisms of earthquakes.

    Kawashima, Issei; Toh, Hiroaki

    2016-01-01

    A geomagnetic observatory named SFEMS is being operated on the deep seafloor in the northwest Pacific since August, 2001. SFEMS is capable of measuring both scalar and vector geomagnetic fields as well as the seafloor instrument's precise attitudes, which makes it a powerful tool in detecting the so-called oceanic dynamo effect. It was found that SFEMS captured clear magnetic signals generated by the giant tsunamis of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake even for an epicentral distance of larger than 1500 km. Here we report estimates of the focal mechanism of a closer tsunamigenic earthquake in January, 2007 on the seaward slope of the Kuril Trench using tsunami-generated variations in the observed downward magnetic component. Three-dimensional solutions of the tsunami-generated magnetic components were calculated by a new numerical code based on non-uniform thin-sheet approximation and particle motions of seawater using the linear Boussinesq approximation. As a result, a southeast dipping fault alone reproduced the dispersive nature of the downward magnetic component, while any northwest dipping faults could not. This implies that the tsunami-generated electromagnetic fields are useful for determination of focal mechanisms of tsunamigenic earthquakes, since fault dips are one of the most difficult source parameters to estimate even in modern seismology. PMID:27353343

  12. Landslide-Generated Tsunami Hazards in Fiordland, New Zealand and Norway

    Dykstra, J. L.

    2009-05-01

    Sub-aerial or submarine landslides can generate large displacement waves, sometimes with devastating consequences. Catastrophic rockslides fall into the fiords of western Norway about every 100 years: during the last century, 174 people have been killed by landslide-generated tsunami, including the 1934 Tafjord rockslide which generated a 62 m high wave, killing 41 people. Hazard evaluation for the Norwegian fiords is based on high-resolution sonar imagery of landslide deposits, seismic reflection data, and event chronology developed from radiocarbon and surface exposure dating. The ongoing hazard is managed by identifying and monitoring potential failure areas, calculating slide paths and estimating slide properties at the points of impact. High-risk locations are monitored intensively, and include the Aknes slide area on Geirangerjord which could generate a tsunami of up to 30 m in height, and the Akernes landslide above Storfjorden. The current system of hazard evaluation and mitigation in western Norway is effective because large landslides are normally preceded by smaller rockfalls and by accelerating motion of the rock bodies. By contrast, large landslides in the very similar but highly seismic terrain of Fiordland, southwestern New Zealand are most likely earthquake-initiated, and therefore precursory minor rockfalls are unlikely. Coseismic landslides are common in New Zealand; seismic shaking serves as the primary trigger for failures that are preconditioned by progressive degradation of rock mass strength since deglaciation. The seismicity of Fiordland is dominated by the plate-boundary Alpine Fault, which runs immediately offshore of the popular tourist destination of Milford Sound; it has ruptured at least four times in the past 1000 years (the last time around 1717 A.D.) producing earthquakes of about magnitude 8. The probability of an earthquake of similar magnitude occurring along the Alpine Fault within the next 50 years is estimated at 65% plus

  13. Assessment of the safety of Ulchin nuclear power plant in the event of tsunami using parametric study

    Kim, Ji Young; Kang, Keum Seok [Korea Electric Power Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-03-15

    Previous evaluations of the safety of the Ulchin Nuclear Power Plant in the event of a tsunami have the shortcoming of uncertainty of the tsunami sources. To address this uncertainty, maximum and minimum wave heights at the intake of Ulchin NPP have been estimated through a parametric study, and then assessment of the safety margin for the intake has been carried out. From the simulation results for the Ulchin NPP site, it can be seen that the coefficient of eddy viscosity considerably affects wave height at the inside of the breakwater. In addition, assessment of the safety margin shows that almost all of the intake water pumps have a safety margin over 2 m, and Ulchin NPP site seems to be safe in the event of a tsunami according to this parametric study, although parts of the CWPs rarely have a margin for the minimum wave height

  14. Tsunami Hockey

    Weinstein, S.; Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Fryer, G. J.

    2013-12-01

    minute simulated time steps takes approximately 50 minutes on the same system. These animations are generated quickly enough to provide decision support for emergency managers whose coastlines may be impacted by the tsunami several hours later. Tsunami reflections can also aid in determining the source region for those tsunamis generated by non-seismic mechanisms without a clear source such as meteotsunamis, tsunamis generated by meteorological phenomena. A derecho that crossed the New Jersey coast and entered the Atlantic Ocean at approximately 1500 UTC June 13, 2013 generated a meteotsunami that struck the northeast coast of the US causing several injuries. A DART sensor off Montauk, NY, recorded tsunami waves approximately 200 minutes apart. We show how the arrival times of the tsunamis recorded by this DART can help to constrain the source region of the meteotsunami. We also examine other reflections produced by the Haida Gwaii 2012, Tohoku 2011, and other tsunamis.

  15. On the use of Paleo DEMS for Simulation of historical Tsunami Events

    Wronna, Martin; Baptista, Maria Ana; Götz, Joachim

    2016-04-01

    In this study, we present a methodology to reconstruct a Paleo Digital Elevation Model (PDEM) to alter geomorphological contexts between the present and the desired paleo period. We aim to simulate a historical tsunami propagation in the same geomorphological contexts of the time of the event. The methodology uses a combination of historical data, GPS-measurements with more recent LIDAR data to build PDEMs. Antique maps are georeferenced; altitude elevations are attributed through descriptions, and old pictures are used to estimate the original outline of a given site. Antique maps are georeferenced to obtain the location of landform and building features. Analysis and interpretation of the historical accounts, descriptions and old pictures serve to attribute an approximate elevation to landform and building features. River mouths and water courses outline can be rebuilt by the boundaries as given in the antique maps. Analysis of present day river mouths with similar characteristics permits the reconstruction of the antique water courses. GPS-RTK measurements along chosen river mouths' in similar geomorphologic environments is used to derive their inclination. We applied this methodology to the 1st November 1755 flooding of Cascais-Portugal. Our results show that using the PDEM we can reproduce the inundation described in most of the historical accounts. This study received funding from project ASTARTE- Assessment Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe a collaborative project Grant 603839, FP7-ENV2013 6.4-3

  16. Tsunami risk assessment in the Marquesas Islands (French Polynesia) through numerical modeling of generic far-field events

    Hébert, H.; Schindelé, F.; Heinrich, P.

    Earthquakes occurring at the Pacific Rim can trigger tsunamis that propagate across the ocean and can produce significant damages far away from the source. In French Polynesia, the Marquesas Islands are the most exposed to the far-field tsunami hazards, since they are not protected by any outer coral reef and since submarine slopes are less steep than in other islands. Between 1994 and 1996, four tsunamis have reached the bays of the archipelago, among them, the tsunami initiated by the Chilean Mw 8.1 earthquake, produced up to 3 m high waves in Tahauku Bay. Numerical modeling of these recent events has already allowed us to validate our method of resolution of hydrodynamics laws through a finite-difference scheme that simulates the propagation of the tsunamis across the ocean and computes the inundation heights (run-up) in remote bays. We present in this paper the simulations carried out to study potentially threatening areas located at the Pacific Rim, on the seismogenic Aleutian and Tonga subduction zones. We use a constant seismic moment source (that of the Mw 8.1 Chile 1995 earthquake, M0 = 1.2 1021 N.m) located at several potential epicenters, with the fault strike adapted from the regional seismotectonics pattern. Our results show that the sources chosen in the Aleutian trench do not produce large inundations in the Marquesas bays, except for the easternmost source (longitude 194° E). Sources located in the Tonga trench do not produce high amplifications either, except for the northernmost one (latitude 16° S). We also discuss the behaviour of the tsunami waves within the archipelago, and evidence contrasting responses depending on the arrival azimuths. These results show that, for a given initial seismic energy, the tsunami amplification in remote bays is highly dependent on the source location and fault strike.

  17. Destructive tsunami-like wave generated by surf beat over a coral reef during Typhoon Haiyan.

    Roeber, Volker; Bricker, Jeremy D

    2015-01-01

    Storm surges cause coastal inundation due to setup of the water surface resulting from atmospheric pressure, surface winds and breaking waves. Here we show that during Typhoon Haiyan, the setup generated by breaking waves near the fringing-reef-protected town of Hernani, the Philippines, oscillated with the incidence of large and small wave groups, and steepened into a tsunami-like wave that caused extensive damage and casualties. Though fringing reefs usually protect coastal communities from moderate storms, they can exacerbate flooding during strong events with energetic waves. Typical for reef-type bathymetries, a very short wave-breaking zone over the steep reef face facilitates the freeing of infragravity-period fluctuations (surf beat) with little energy loss. Since coastal flood planning relies on phase-averaged wave modelling, infragravity surges are not being accounted for. This highlights the necessity for a policy change and the adoption of phase-resolving wave models for hazard assessment in regions with fringing reefs. PMID:26245839

  18. Comparing approaches for numerical modelling of tsunami generation by deformable submarine slides

    Smith, Rebecca C.; Hill, Jon; Collins, Gareth S.; Piggott, Matthew D.; Kramer, Stephan C.; Parkinson, Samuel D.; Wilson, Cian

    2016-04-01

    Tsunami generated by submarine slides are arguably an under-considered risk in comparison to earthquake-generated tsunami. Numerical simulations of submarine slide-generated waves can be used to identify the important factors in determining wave characteristics. Here we use Fluidity, an open source finite element code, to simulate waves generated by deformable submarine slides. Fluidity uses flexible unstructured meshes combined with adaptivity which alters the mesh topology and resolution based on the simulation state, focussing or reducing resolution, when and where it is required. Fluidity also allows a number of different numerical approaches to be taken to simulate submarine slide deformation, free-surface representation, and wave generation within the same numerical framework. In this work we use a multi-material approach, considering either two materials (slide and water with a free surface) or three materials (slide, water and air), as well as a sediment model (sediment, water and free surface) approach. In all cases the slide is treated as a viscous fluid. Our results are shown to be consistent with laboratory experiments using a deformable submarine slide, and demonstrate good agreement when compared with other numerical models. The three different approaches for simulating submarine slide dynamics and tsunami wave generation produce similar waveforms and slide deformation geometries. However, each has its own merits depending on the application. Mesh adaptivity is shown to be able to reduce the computational cost without compromising the accuracy of results.

  19. TSUNAMI INFORMATION SOURCES - PART 4

    Robert L. Wiegel

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available I have expanded substantially my list of information sources on: tsunami generation (sources, impulsive mechanisms, propagation, effects of nearshore bathymetry, and wave run-up on shore - including physical (hydraulic modeling and numerical modeling. This expanded list includes the subjects of field investigations of tsunamis soon after an event; damage effects in harbors on boats, ships, and facilities; tsunami wave-induced forces; damage by tsunami waves to structures on shore; scour/erosion; hazard mitigation; land use planning; zoning; siting, design, construction and maintenance of structures and infrastructure; public awareness and education; distant and local sources; tsunami warning and evacuation programs; tsunami probability and risk criteria. A few references are on "sedimentary signatures" useful in the study of historic and prehistoric tsunamis (paleo-tsunamis. In addition to references specifically on tsunamis, there are references on long water wave and solitary wave theory; wave refraction, diffraction, and reflection; shelf and basin free and forced oscillations (bay and harbor response; seiches; edge waves; Mach- reflection of long water waves ("stem waves"; wave run-up on shore; energy dissipation. All are important in understanding tsunamis, and in hazard mitigation. References are given on subaerial and submarine landslide (and rockfall generated waves in reservoirs, fjords, bays, and ocean; volcano explosive eruptions/collapse; underwater and surface explosions; asteroid impact. This report is in two parts: 1 Bibliographies, books and pamphlets, catalogs, collections, journals and newsletters, maps, organizations, proceedings, videos and photos; 2 Articles, papers, reports listed alphabetically by author.Many papers on the Indian Ocean (Sumatra tsunami of 26 December 2004, were given at the 22nd IUGG International Tsunami Symposium, Chania, Crete, 27-29 June 2005, but had not been published at the date of this report. For

  20. Tsunami.gov: NOAA's Tsunami Information Portal

    Shiro, B.; Carrick, J.; Hellman, S. B.; Bernard, M.; Dildine, W. P.

    2014-12-01

    We present the new Tsunami.gov website, which delivers a single authoritative source of tsunami information for the public and emergency management communities. The site efficiently merges information from NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers (TWC's) by way of a comprehensive XML feed called Tsunami Event XML (TEX). The resulting unified view allows users to quickly see the latest tsunami alert status in geographic context without having to understand complex TWC areas of responsibility. The new site provides for the creation of a wide range of products beyond the traditional ASCII-based tsunami messages. The publication of modern formats such as Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) can drive geographically aware emergency alert systems like FEMA's Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (IPAWS). Supported are other popular information delivery systems, including email, text messaging, and social media updates. The Tsunami.gov portal allows NOAA staff to easily edit content and provides the facility for users to customize their viewing experience. In addition to access by the public, emergency managers and government officials may be offered the capability to log into the portal for special access rights to decision-making and administrative resources relevant to their respective tsunami warning systems. The site follows modern HTML5 responsive design practices for optimized use on mobile as well as non-mobile platforms. It meets all federal security and accessibility standards. Moving forward, we hope to expand Tsunami.gov to encompass tsunami-related content currently offered on separate websites, including the NOAA Tsunami Website, National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, NOAA Center for Tsunami Research, National Geophysical Data Center's Tsunami Database, and National Data Buoy Center's DART Program. This project is part of the larger Tsunami Information Technology Modernization Project, which is consolidating the software architectures of NOAA's existing TWC's into

  1. Tsunamis - General

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Tsunami is a Japanese word meaning harbor wave. It is a water wave or a series of waves generated by an impulsive vertical displacement of the surface of the ocean...

  2. NOAA/West coast and Alaska Tsunami warning center Atlantic Ocean response criteria

    Whitmore, P.; Refidaff, C.; Caropolo, M.; Huerfano-Moreno, V.; Knight, W.; Sammler, W.; Sandrik, A.

    2009-01-01

    West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) response criteria for earthquakesoccurring in the Atlantic and Caribbean basins are presented. Initial warning center decisions are based on an earthquake's location, magnitude, depth, distance from coastal locations, and precomputed threat estimates based on tsunami models computed from similar events. The new criteria will help limit the geographical extent of warnings and advisories to threatened regions, and complement the new operational tsunami product suite. Criteria are set for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, which are by far the main cause of tsunami generation (either directly through sea floor displacement or indirectly by triggering of sub-sea landslides).The new criteria require development of a threat data base which sets warning or advisory zones based on location, magnitude, and pre-computed tsunami models. The models determine coastal tsunami amplitudes based on likely tsunami source parameters for a given event. Based on the computed amplitude, warning and advisory zones are pre-set.

  3. Generation of surface waves by an underwater moving bottom: Experiments and application to tsunami modelling

    Jamin, Timothée; Ruiz-Chavarría, Gerardo; Berhanu, Michael; Falcon, Eric

    2014-01-01

    We report laboratory experiments on surface waves generated in a uniform fluid layer whose bottom undergoes a sudden upward motion. Simultaneous measurements of the free-surface deformation and the fluid velocity field are focused on the role of the bottom kinematics in wave generation. We observe that the fluid layer transfers bottom motion to the free surface as a temporal high-pass filter coupled with a spatial low-pass filter. Both filter effects are usually neglected in tsunami warning systems. Our results display good agreement with a prevailing linear theory without fitting parameter. Based on our experimental data, we provide a new theoretical approach for the rapid kinematics limit that is applicable even for non-flat bottoms: a key step since most approaches assume a uniform depth. This approach can be easily appended to tsunami simulations under arbitrary topography.

  4. A Novel Scheme of Dispersive Propagation Model for Earthquake Generated Tsunami

    Laouar, A; Guerziz, A; Boussaha, A

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we interested in simulating an irregular wave trains (IWTs) propagation generated by tsunami source. There didn't discuss in the literature, for this we will explain the e¤ects of ocean viscosity by virtue of mathematical aspect. Weakly dissipative terms are introduced into linear shallow water equations (LSWqs) modified system. We employ the third-order alternating directions implicit (ADI) predictor corrector (PC) scheme for spatial derivatives with three-time level. As a res...

  5. A Tsunami Fragility Assessment for Nuclear Power Plants in Korea

    Although Tsunami events were defined as an external event in 'PRA Procedure Guide (NUREG/CR- 2300)'after 1982, a Tsunami event was not considered in a design and construction of NPP before the Sumatra earthquake in 2004. But the Madras Atomic Power Station, a commercial nuclear power plant owned and operated by the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL), and located near Chennai, India, was affected by the tsunami generated by the 2004 Sumatra earthquake (USNRC 2008). The condenser cooling pumps of Unit 2 of the installation were affected due to flooding of the pump house and subsequent submergence of the seawater pumps by tsunami waves. The turbine was tripped and the reactor shut down. The unit was brought to a cold-shutdown state, and the shutdown-cooling systems were reported as operating safely. After this event, Tsunami hazards were considered as one of the major natural disasters which can affect the safety of Nuclear Power Plants. The IAEA performed an Extrabudgetary project for Tsunami Hazard Assessment and finally an International Seismic Safety Center (ISSC) established in IAEA for protection from natural disasters like earthquake, tsunami etc. For this reason, a tsunami hazard assessment method determined in this study. At first, a procedure for tsunami hazard assessment method was established, and second target equipment and structures for investigation of Tsunami Hazard assessment were selected. Finally, a sample fragility calculation was performed for one of equipment in Nuclear Power Plant

  6. Large-Scale Physical Modelling of Complex Tsunami-Generated Currents

    Lynett, P. J.; Kalligeris, N.; Ayca, A.

    2014-12-01

    For tsunamis passing through sharp bathymetric variability, such as a shoal or a harbor entrance channel, z-axis vortical motions are created. These structures are often characterized by a horizontal length scale that is much greater than the local depth and are herein called shallow turbulent coherent structures (TCS). These shallow TCS can greatly increase the drag force on affected infrastructure and the ability of the flow to transport debris and floating objects. Shallow TCS typically manifest as large "whirlpools" during tsunamis, very commonly in ports and harbors. Such structures have been observed numerous times in the tsunamis over the past decade, and are postulated as the cause of large vessels parting their mooring lines due to yaw induced by the rotational eddy. Through the NSF NEES program, a laboratory study to examine a shallow TCS was performed during the summer of 2014. To generate this phenomenon, a 60 second period long wave was created and then interacted with a breakwater in the basin, forcing the generation of a large and stable TCS. The model scale is 1:30, equating to a 5.5 minute period and 0.5 m amplitude in the prototype scale. Surface tracers, dye studies, AVD's, wave gages, and bottom pressure sensors are used to characterize the flow. Complex patterns of surface convergence and divergence are easily seen in the data, indicating three-dimensional flow patterns. Dye studies show areas of relatively high and low spatial mixing. Model vessels are placed in the basin such that ship motion in the presence of these rapidly varying currents might be captured. The data obtained from this laboratory study should permit a better physical understanding of the nearshore currents that tsunamis are known to generate, as well as provide a benchmark for numerical modelers who wish to simulate currents.

  7. 3D numerical investigation on landslide generated tsunamis around a conical island

    Montagna, Francesca; Bellotti, Giorgio

    2010-05-01

    This paper presents numerical computations of tsunamis generated by subaerial and submerged landslides falling along the flank of a conical island. The study is inspired by the tsunamis that on 30th December 2002 attacked the coast of the volcanic island of Stromboli (South Tyrrhenian sea, Italy). In particular this paper analyzes the important feature of the lateral spreading of landside generated tsunamis and the associated flooding hazard. The numerical model used in this study is the full three dimensional commercial code FLOW-3D. The model has already been successfully used (Choi et al., 2007; 2008; Chopakatla et al, 2008) to study the interaction of waves and structures. In the simulations carried out in this work a particular feature of the code has been employed: the GMO (General Moving Object) algorithm. It allows to reproduce the interaction between moving objects, as a landslide, and the water. FLOW-3D has been firstly validated using available 3D experiments reproducing tsunamis generated by landslides at the flank of a conical island. The experiments have been carried out in the LIC laboratory of the Polytechnic of Bari, Italy (Di Risio et al., 2009). Numerical and experimental time series of run-up and sea level recorded at gauges located at the flanks of the island and offshore have been successfully compared. This analysis shows that the model can accurately represent the generation, the propagation and the inundation of landslide generated tsunamis and suggests the use of the numerical model as a tool for preparing inundation maps. At the conference we will present the validation of the model and parametric analyses aimed to investigate how wave properties depend on the landslide kinematic and on further parameters such as the landslide volume and shape, as well as the radius of the island. The expected final results of the research are precomputed inundation maps that depend on the characteristics of the landslide and of the island. Finally we

  8. e+ e- event generator EPOCS

    We present a Monte Carlo program EPOCS (Electron POsitron Collision Simulator), which generates e+e- events in high energy region that will be explored by TRISTAN project. Special emphasis is put on the effect of Z0 and possible top quark resonances. The user can control the simulation by selecting the energy and other parameters. Also he can easily incorpolate a new process and/or particles into the program. The central part of this report is a detailed description on the structure and the usage of the program. We would like to stress that the hadronization is based on a number of assumptions, which are made as clear as possible here. (author)

  9. Sedimentary Characteristics of Marine Events from se Coast of India: Case Studies of 2004 Tsunami and 2013 Phailin Cyclone

    Karthikeyan, A.

    2015-12-01

    The 2004 Indian Tsunami has deposited a varied layer of sand sheets along the coast which depends upon on the coastal topography. Recognition Tsunami deposits were clearly observed as the sand sheets were laid over the soil which is distinctly different due to differences in the weathering and presence of organic material of vegetation. To understand the preservation potential of 2004 tsunami deposits we were studied a transect profile with seven pits sediments along Thiruvengadu coast , Nagapattinam. The study reveals that presence of sand sheets preserved a mínimum of 10 cm thickness to máximum of 22 cm and the distance is 300 from HTL. From the present study six sedimentary layers were identfied which are (a) Top sediments deposited after IOT, (b). Tsunami sand sheets (c) Silty sand (d). Erosional base and top (e) Silty sand (d) Lagoonal sediments. The 2013 Phailin cyclon with wind speed of 220 kmph which was remnant cyclonic circulation from south china; it had major impact on geomorphology and sedimentology of odisha coast. At rushikulya river mouth, Ganjam district, cyclone had produced washover sand sheets as described in eyewitness along the river mouth of both north and south bar. The study reveals that the washover sand sheets provides the inundation of the water level, and characteristics of sediments where storm deposit has a highly variable grain-size distribution with a marked coarsening at its landward extent, is better sorted, coarser, and has a sharp, non-erosional lower contact associated with buried vegetation and soil. Also, the thickness of cyclone deposits are about 5 cm with the distance from coast 80 m, heavy mineral percentage ranges between 9 % to 75% for entire pit and sandsheets lateral extent are about 45 m. The presence of the laminations and alternate layers of heavy minerals are indicative of the complexity of sedimentation on the coast. The recent marine event Phailin cylcone deposits and 2004 tsunami deposits characteristic and

  10. Source of the tsunami generated by the 1650 AD eruption of Kolumbo submarine volcano (Aegean Sea, Greece)

    Ulvrova, Martina; Paris, R.; Nomikou, P.; Kelfoun, K.; Leibrandt, S.; Tappin, D. R.; McCoy, F. W.

    2016-07-01

    The 1650 AD explosive eruption of Kolumbo submarine volcano (Aegean Sea, Greece) generated a destructive tsunami. In this paper we propose a source mechanism of this poorly documented tsunami using both geological investigations and numerical simulations. Sedimentary evidence of the 1650 AD tsunami was found along the coast of Santorini Island at maximum altitudes ranging between 3.5 m a.s.l. (Perissa, southern coast) and 20 m a.s.l. (Monolithos, eastern coast), corresponding to a minimum inundation of 360 and 630 m respectively. Tsunami deposits consist of an irregular 5 to 30 cm thick layer of dark grey sand that overlies pumiceous deposits erupted during the Minoan eruption and are found at depths of 30-50 cm below the surface. Composition of the tsunami sand is similar to the composition of the present-day beach sand but differs from the pumiceous gravelly deposits on which it rests. The spatial distribution of the tsunami deposits was compared to available historical records and to the results of numerical simulations of tsunami inundation. Different source mechanisms were tested: earthquakes, underwater explosions, caldera collapse, and pyroclastic flows. The most probable source of the 1650 AD Kolumbo tsunami is a 250 m high water surface displacement generated by underwater explosion with an energy of ~ 2 × 1016 J at water depths between 20 and 150 m. The tsunamigenic explosion(s) occurred on September 29, 1650 during the transition between submarine and subaerial phases of the eruption. Caldera subsidence is not an efficient tsunami source mechanism as short (and probably unrealistic) collapse durations (< 5 min) are needed. Pyroclastic flows cannot be discarded, but the required flux (106 to 107 m3 · s- 1) is exceptionally high compared to the magnitude of the eruption.

  11. Reconstruction of the sedimentological environment and paleo-tsunami events offshore Jisr Az-Zarka (central Israel)

    Tyuleneva, Natalia; Braun, Yael; Suchkov, Igor; Ben-Avraham, Zvi; Goodman-Tchernov, Beverly

    2015-04-01

    Previous research shows that cores retrieved offshore central Israel (Caesarea) have anomalous sedimentary sequences that correspond to at least three tsunami events. Identification of the tsunami horizons was carried out by quantifying the presence of a wide range of characteristics described in modern and paleotsunami analogs. In this study, a sediment core (219cm) was obtained from 15.3 m water depth, some 1.5 km to the south-west of the Crocodile River mouth, offshore the village of Jisr Az-Zarka, and ~4 km north of Caesarea. The core was sampled at 1 cm intervals for grain size and micropaleontological analyses. XRD and XRF analyses were also performed at coarser resolution. The aim of the study was to correlate anomalous layers in the core with previously identified tsunami layers off Caesarea and to test whether their expression differs, given the impact of the river runoff and land material input. An additional aim was to study the inter-event sediments to determine broader environmental changes. This is uniquely possible here because the maximum age of the deposits (signatures. In this new core two tsunami horizons corresponding with known Caesarea events (~1200 yBP, perhaps 749 AD earthquake; and ~3500 yBP 'Santorini eruption') were recognized, and, one previously unidentified event, dated by 14C to 5.6-6 ka, was discerned as well. The Nile River has been the dominant and most stable source of terrigenous components in the study area, such as siliciclastic quartz for the sand fraction and smectite - for the clays. Thus, the prevailing marine settings are dominated by these two mineralogical components. XRD analysis of nine intervals in the core determined the following clay minerals: smectite, hydromica (illite), chlorite and kaolinite. Normal marine settings are characterized by the stable relative ratios between these minerals, while the contribution from the surrounding landmass here can be detected by increase of illite and smectite. The Santorini

  12. Generating target probability sequences and events

    Ella, Vaignana Spoorthy

    2013-01-01

    Cryptography and simulation of systems require that events of pre-defined probability be generated. This paper presents methods to generate target probability events based on the oblivious transfer protocol and target probabilistic sequences using probability distribution functions.

  13. Evaluation of Intensity of Recent Seismogenic Tsunamis in the World Ocean from 2000 to 2014

    Gusiakov, Viacheslav K.

    2015-12-01

    Tsunami intensity on the S oloviev-I mamura scale is one of the most important parameters for characterizing the overall size of a tsunami generated by submarine earthquakes. Consequently, this parameter is included in both global tsunami databases maintained by the National Centers for Environmental Information/World Data Service (NCEI/WDS) and the Novosibirsk Tsunami Laboratory of the Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics (NTL/ICMMG). S. Soloviev made the initial evaluation of the intensities of a large number of destructive historical tsunamis while compiling his two historical catalogs of tsunamis in the Pacific. The Novosibirsk Tsunami Laboratory under the Expert Tsunami Database Project made further determinations of tsunami intensity for the events after 1975. These intensities have been periodically incorporated into the NCEI/WDS tsunami database under the Global Tsunami Database Joint ICG/ITSU-IUGG/TC Project. In the on-line version of the NCEI/WDS Tsunami Database, the data on tsunami intensity are available only for the events prior to 2003. The main purpose of this paper is to extend the temporal coverage of this important parameter for characterizing tsunamigenic events to the present in order to provide researchers with more data for analyzing the temporal and spatial tsunami occurrence. However, of the 164 tsunamigenic events in the World Ocean from 2000 to the present, we could determine the intensity value for only 44 events that is less than 27 % of the total. For the rest of the events (that is, 73 %), the intensity value cannot be determined due to the lack of data on wave heights from the nearest coast. This shows that despite a great improvement in the tsunami-recording network in the Pacific and other oceanic basins during the last two decades, the data for reliable estimates of tsunami intensity are still problematic.

  14. Offshore Evidence for an Undocumented Tsunami Event in the 'Low Risk' Gulf of Aqaba-Eilat, Northern Red Sea.

    Goodman Tchernov, Beverly; Katz, Timor; Shaked, Yonathan; Qupty, Nairooz; Kanari, Mor; Niemi, Tina; Agnon, Amotz

    2016-01-01

    Although the Gulf of Aqaba-Eilat is located in the tectonically active northern Red Sea, it has been described as low-risk with regard to tsunami activity because there are no modern records of damaging tsunami events and only one tsunami (1068 AD) referred to in historical records. However, this assessment may be poorly informed given that the area was formed by and is located along the seismically active Dead Sea Fault, its population is known to fluctuate in size and literacy in part due to its harsh hyper-arid climate, and there is a dearth of field studies addressing the presence or absence of tsunamigenic deposits. Here we show evidence from two offshore cores for a major paleotsunami that occurred ~2300 years ago with a sedimentological footprint that far exceeds the scarce markers of the historically mentioned 1068 AD event. The interpretation is based on the presence of a laterally continuous and synchronous, anomalous sedimentological deposit that includes allochtonous inclusions and unique structural characteristics. Based on sedimentological parameters, these deposits could not be accounted for by other transport events, or other known background sedimentological processes. PMID:26815553

  15. The Tsunami Triggered by the El Asnam (Algeria) Earthquake of 1980: a New Hypothesis of Generation

    Roger, J.; Hebert, H.; Briole, P.

    2009-12-01

    On the 10th of October 1980, a Mw=7.1 earthquake destroyed the town of El Asnam (actual Ech Cheliff, Northern Algeria) causing several thousands of casualties and leading to considerable economic losses for Algeria. This is the biggest instrumentally recorded earthquake in Africa. A lot of measurement campaigns have been immediately set up in order to constrain the fault rupture mechanisms principally using the numerous aftershocks. Then these studies furnish important information concerning principally the focal mechanisms in this area, the length and width of the rupture zone, the depth and the coseismic slip. But although the epicenter has been located about 45 km from the sea, and 15 km east of El Asnam, in the same area of the 1954 Orléansville earthquake (Mw=6.6), it is known to have triggered a small tsunami which was able to reach the south-eastern Spanish Coast in several locations where it has been recorded on tide gages. Thus six maregrams are available from Alicante to Algeciras Several previous studies present this tsunami as the result of a submarine mass failure as the 1954 event which led to the rupture of submarine phone cables. In this work we propose a rupture scenario based on previous studies results as geodetic measurements of vertical movements, aftershocks localization, focal mechanisms determination and identification of geological features among other things. We show that the seismic initial deformation itself, using Okada’s formulae, is able to disturb the sea surface near the Algerian Coast by several centimeters, even at this distance from the epicenter, and propagate a tsunami wave toward the Spanish Coast. The results are compared with historical records in terms of arrival times, polarity and wave amplitudes and discussed, especially concerning the integration of such inland earthquake in the catalog of the future Western Mediterranean Tsunami Warning System. This study was partially funded by the European project TRANSFER which

  16. Preservation of Records, Knowledge and Memory across Generations (RK and M). Markers - Reflections on Inter-generational Warnings in the Form of Japanese Tsunami Stones

    As states with nuclear power programmes are, or intend to become, engaged in planning the disposal of their high-level and/or long-lived radioactive waste in deep geological repositories, means to ensure that future generations will be aware of these repositories and not disturb them are being studied. Preservation of Records, Knowledge and Memory (RK and M) across Generations, launched in March 2010, is the relevant initiative under the NEA Radioactive Waste Management Committee in this area. Its several years of work and findings are documented online at www.oecdnea. org/rwm/rkm. A strategy of communicating important information to future generations must be based on several complementary means and approaches. Markers placed in the vicinity of closed repositories represent one potential component of this strategy. The RK and M initiative's glossary defines a marker as 'a long-lasting object that indicates an area of influence, power or danger. It is placed strategically at or near the site for immediate recognition or for discovery at a later time'. Markers are meant to reach future generations in the medium (a few hundred years) to long term (hundred thousand of years) and are conceived to be immobile (that is, in permanent association with a site), robust (in order to maximize survivability on its own) and provide messages that are likely to be understandable across generations. A marking system can range from a simple stone to a contrived and monumental multi-component system. The present report seeks to develop the understanding of the potential effectiveness of makers drawing from the study of the role that stone markers played in Japan during the Tohoku tsunami event of 2011. There are hundreds such markers placed at various epochs on Japan's north-eastern coast to warn future generations about the dangers of tsunamis. The existence of markers for recurrent, destructive events may help save lives, as in the case of the villages of Murohama and Aneyoshi

  17. Tsunami Run-up Heights at Imwon Port, Korea

    Cho, Yong-Sik; Cho, Jeong-Seon

    2015-04-01

    Tsunami Run-up Heights at Imwon Port, Korea Yong-Sik Cho and Jeong-Seon Cho Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University 222 Wangsimni-ro, Seongdong-gu, Seoul 133-791, Korea. The Eastern Coast of the Korean Peninsula has been attacked frequently by a number of tsunamis causing severe damages during this century. Among them, 1983 Central East Sea and 1993 Hokkaido Tsunami events were recorded as the most devastating events in Korea. More recently, the Great East Japan Tsunami had also attacked the Korean Peninsula. The Eastern Coast of the Korean Peninsula is the terminal place where tsunamis climb up inland after it generated along the western coast of Japan. The central part of the coast, in special, is worried as a tsunami danger zone because much tsunami energy is concentrated on by a topographic condition of this region. Recently, several coastal facilities including harbors and breakwaters are built and operated along the Eastern Coast of the Korean Peninsula. Furthermore, several nuclear power plants are already operating and several more units are now under construction. Residents who lived alongside the coast want free from unexpected danger, so the tsunami hazard mitigation becomes an important issue of coastal problems in Korea. Through the historical tsunami events, the Imwon Port is known as the place where most severe damage occurred, especially in 1983. An effective and economic way for the tsunami hazard mitigation planning is to construct inundation maps along the coast vulnerable to tsunami flooding. These maps should be built based on the historical tsunami events and the projected scenarios. For this purpose, an accurate estimation of tsunami run-up height and inundation process through the numerical model is needed. As a first step to tsunami mitigation program, the maximum run-up heights at the Imwon Port are computed and compared with field observed data. For this, tsunami run-up heights in this region were filed

  18. Tsunami Casualty Model

    Yeh, H.

    2007-12-01

    More than 4500 deaths by tsunamis were recorded in the decade of 1990. For example, the 1992 Flores Tsunami in Indonesia took away at least 1712 lives, and more than 2182 people were victimized by the 1998 Papua New Guinea Tsunami. Such staggering death toll has been totally overshadowed by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami that claimed more than 220,000 lives. Unlike hurricanes that are often evaluated by economic losses, death count is the primary measure for tsunami hazard. It is partly because tsunamis kill more people owing to its short lead- time for warning. Although exact death tallies are not available for most of the tsunami events, there exist gender and age discriminations in tsunami casualties. Significant gender difference in the victims of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami was attributed to women's social norms and role behavior, as well as cultural bias toward women's inability to swim. Here we develop a rational casualty model based on humans' limit to withstand the tsunami flows. The application to simple tsunami runup cases demonstrates that biological and physiological disadvantages also make a significant difference in casualty rate. It further demonstrates that the gender and age discriminations in casualties become most pronounced when tsunami is marginally strong and the difference tends to diminish as tsunami strength increases.

  19. MODELING THE ASIAN TSUNAMI EVOLUTION AND PROPAGATION WITH A NEW GENERATION MECHANISM AND A NON-LINEAR DISPERSIVE WAVE MODEL

    Paul C. Rivera

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available A common approach in modeling the generation and propagation of tsunami is based on the assumption of a kinematic vertical displacement of ocean water that is analogous to the ocean bottom displacement during a submarine earthquake and the use of a non-dispersive long-wave model to simulate its physical transformation as it radiates outward from the source region. In this study, a new generation mechanism and the use of a highly-dispersive wave model to simulate tsunami inception, propagation and transformation are proposed. The new generation model assumes that transient ground motion during the earthquake can accelerate horizontal currents with opposing directions near the fault line whose successive convergence and divergence generate a series of potentially destructive oceanic waves. The new dynamic model incorporates the effects of earthquake moment magnitude, ocean compressibility through the buoyancy frequency, the effects of focal and water depths, and the orientation of ruptured fault line in the tsunami magnitude and directivity.For tsunami wave simulation, the nonlinear momentum-based wave model includes important wave propagation and transformation mechanisms such as refraction, diffraction, shoaling, partial reflection and transmission, back-scattering, frequency dispersion, and resonant wave-wave interaction. Using this model and a coarse-resolution bathymetry, the new mechanism is tested for the Indian Ocean tsunami of December 26, 2004. A new flooding and drying algorithm that consider waves coming from every direction is also proposed for simulation of inundation of low-lying coastal regions.It is shown in the present study that with the proposed generation model, the observed features of the Asian tsunami such as the initial drying of areas east of the source region and the initial flooding of western coasts are correctly simulated. The formation of a series of tsunami waves with periods and lengths comparable to observations

  20. Tsunami Information Sources: Part 4 (With a section on impulsively generated waves by a rapid mass movement, either submerged, or into a body of water)

    Robert L. Wiegel

    2008-01-01

    A great amount of technical information on tsunamis is available in journals, books, reports, newspapers, and websites. After the Sumatra-Andaman Islands Earthquake and the accompanying Indian Ocean Tsunami of 26 December 2004, the author updated his list of tsunami information sources, and made the citations available in a 115 page report. The sources are listed in the following categories: Articles, papers, reports, by author(s) Bibliographies Books, monographs, pamphlets Catalogs of events...

  1. NOAA/WDC Global Tsunami Deposits Database

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Discover where, when and how severely tsunamis affected Earth in geologic history. Information regarding Tsunami Deposits and Proxies for Tsunami Events complements...

  2. Tsunami vulnerability assessment mapping for the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia using a geographical information system (GIS)

    The catastrophic Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004 raised a number of questions for scientist and politicians on how to deal with the tsunami risk and assessment in coastal regions. This paper discusses the challenges in tsunami vulnerability assessment and presents the result of tsunami disaster mapping and vulnerability assessment study for West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The spatial analysis was carried out using Geographical Information System (GIS) technology to demarcate spatially the tsunami affected village's boundary and suitable disaster management program can be quickly and easily developed. In combination with other thematic maps such as road maps, rail maps, school maps, and topographic map sheets it was possible to plan the accessibility and shelter to the affected people. The tsunami vulnerability map was used to identify the vulnerability of villages/village population to tsunami. In the tsunami vulnerability map, the intensity of the tsunami was classified as hazard zones based on the inundation level in meter (contour). The approach produced a tsunami vulnerability assessment map consists of considering scenarios of plausible extreme, tsunami-generating events, computing the tsunami inundation levels caused by different events and scenarios and estimating the possible range of casualties for computing inundation levels. The study provides an interactive means to identify the tsunami affected areas after the disaster and mapping the tsunami vulnerable village before for planning purpose were the essential exercises for managing future disasters

  3. MadEvent: automatic event generation with MadGraph

    We present a new multi-channel integration method and its implementation in the multi-purpose event generator MadEvent, which is based on MadGraph. Given a process, MadGraph automatically identifies all the relevant subprocesses, generates both the amplitudes and the mappings needed for an efficient integration over the phase space, and passes them to MadEvent. As a result, a process-specific, stand-alone code is produced that allows the user to calculate cross sections and produce unweighted events in a standard output format. Several examples are given for processes that are relevant for physics studies at present and forthcoming colliders. (author)

  4. Seismic Shaking, Tsunami Wave Erosion And Generation of Seismo-Turbidites in the Ionian Sea

    Polonia, Alina; Nelson, Hans; Romano, Stefania; Vaiani, Stefano Claudio; Colizza, Ester; Gasparotto, Giorgio; Gasperini, Luca

    2016-04-01

    We are investigating the effects of earthquakes and tsunamis on the sedimentary record in the Ionian Sea through the analysis of turbidite deposits. A comparison between radiometric dating and historical earthquake catalogs suggests that recent turbidite generation is triggered by great earthquakes in the Calabrian and hellenic Arcs such as the AD 1908 Messina, AD 1693 Catania, AD 1169 Eastern Sicily and AD 365 Crete earthquakes. Textural, micropaleontological, geochemical and mineralogical signatures of the youngest three seismo-turbidites reveal cyclic patterns of sedimentary units. The basal stacked turbidites result from multiple slope failure sources as shown by different sedimentary structures as well as mineralogic, geochemical and micropaleontological compositions. The homogenite units, are graded muds deposited from the waning flows of the multiple turbidity currents that are trapped in the Ionian Sea confined basin. The uppermost unit is divided into two parts. The lower marine sourced laminated part without textural gradation, we interpret to result from seiching of the confined water mass that appears to be generated by earthquake ruptures combined with tsunami waves. The uppermost part we interpret as the tsunamite cap that is deposited by the slow settling suspension cloud created by tsunami wave backwash erosion of the shoreline and continental shelf. This tsunami process interpretation is based on the final textural gradation of the upper unit and a more continental source of the tsunami cap which includes C/N >10, the lack of abyssal foraminifera species wirth the local occurrence of inner shelf foraminifera. Seismic reflection images show that some deeper turbidite beds are very thick and marked by acoustic transparent homogenite mud layers at their top. Based on a high resolution study of the most recent of such megabeds (Homogenite/Augias turbidite, i.e. HAT), we show that it was triggered by the AD 365 Crete earthquake. Radiometric dating

  5. Puerto Rico Tsunami Warning and Mitigation Program

    Huerfano, V. A.; Mercado, A.; von Hillebrandt, C. G.

    2003-12-01

    The circum-Caribbean region has a documented history of large damaging tsunamis that have affected coastal areas, including the events of the Virgin Islands in 1867 and Mona Passage in 1918. These tsunamis have been triggered by large tsunamigenic earthquakes that deformed the ocean floor. The seismic water waves originating in the prominent fault system around PR are considered to be a near-field hazard for Puerto Rico and the Virgin islands (PR/VI) because they can reach coastal areas within a few minutes after the earthquake. Sources for regional and tele tsunamis have also been identified. To help mitigate the risk of potential tsunamis on the coastal communities of Puerto Rico, with initial funding from the Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA) and the University of Puerto Rico (UPR), the Puerto Rico Tsunami Warning and Mitigation Program (PRTWMP) was established in 2000. Three of the main tasks are to evaluate the possibility of establishing a Tsunami Warning System (TWS), prepare tsunami flood maps and education. The need to establish a system of rapid notification for tsunami alerting in the Caribbean region has been recognized by the emergency management and scientific community. Presently, the Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) of the University of Puerto Rico at Mayag\\x81ez is establishing a Tsunami Warning System (TWS) for PR/VI. Part of the TWS is the EarlyBird system, developed by the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center, which has been running in the PRSN since January, 2003. This program automatically locates and disseminates information on potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes. Also, the existing protocol for exchanging data and information on potentially tsunamigenic events in the PR/VI is currently being reviewed by the concerned institutions. Tsunami flood maps were prepared for all of Puerto Rico, including the island municipalities of Vieques and Culebra. These flood maps were generated in three phases. First, hypothetical

  6. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami: Description of the event and estimation of length of the tsunami source region based on data from Indian tide gauge

    Suresh, I.; Neetu, S.; Shankar, D.; Shenoi, S.S.C.; Shetye, S.R.; Sundar, D.

    is critically dependent on the initial perturbation used to force the model. The extent of the tsunami source region remains a key bottleneck. Arrival times recorded on the tide gauges provide additional constraint on the northern extent of the tsunami source...

  7. Joko Tingkir program for estimating tsunami potential rapidly

    Madlazim,, E-mail: m-lazim@physics.its.ac.id; Hariyono, E., E-mail: m-lazim@physics.its.ac.id [Department of Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Negeri Surabaya (UNESA) , Jl. Ketintang, Surabaya 60231 (Indonesia)

    2014-09-25

    The purpose of the study was to estimate P-wave rupture durations (T{sub dur}), dominant periods (T{sub d}) and exceeds duration (T{sub 50Ex}) simultaneously for local events, shallow earthquakes which occurred off the coast of Indonesia. Although the all earthquakes had parameters of magnitude more than 6,3 and depth less than 70 km, part of the earthquakes generated a tsunami while the other events (Mw=7.8) did not. Analysis using Joko Tingkir of the above stated parameters helped understand the tsunami generation of these earthquakes. Measurements from vertical component broadband P-wave quake velocity records and determination of the above stated parameters can provide a direct procedure for assessing rapidly the potential for tsunami generation. The results of the present study and the analysis of the seismic parameters helped explain why the events generated a tsunami, while the others did not.

  8. Tsunami: The Underrated Hazard

    Synolakis, Costas; Fryer, Gerard J.

    Tsunami: the Underrated Hazard, by Edward Bryant, would appear to be a welcome addition to the scholarly tsunami literature. No book on tsunamis has the broad perspective of this work. The book looks attractive, with many high-quality photographs. It looks comprehensive, with discussions of tsunami hydrodynamics, tsunami effects on coastal landscapes, and causes of tsunamis (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, meteorite impacts). It looks practical, with a section on risk and mitigation. It also looks entertaining, with an opening chapter on tsunami legends and a closing chapter presenting fanciful descriptions of imagined events. Appearances are deceiving, though. Any initial enthusiasm for the work evaporates on even casual reading. The book is so flawed by errors, omissions, confusion, and unsupported conjecture that we cannot recommend it to anyone.

  9. Hydromagnetic simulation of the ionospheric disturbances generated by the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami and associated acoustic-gravity waves

    Kherani, E. A.; Lognonne, P. H.; Paula, E. R.; Rolland, L. M.

    2013-05-01

    Owing to the natural disturbances such as Earth quake/tsunami and tropospheric convection, Acosutic gravity waves (AGWs) are excited in the troposphere. These AGWs propagates upward to the thermosphere, attain large amplitude therein and subsequently dissipate, leading to the excitation of secondary AGWs which mainly propagate horizontally. Both primary and secondary AGWs significantly modify the ionosphere, leading to the Total electron Content disturances, current and magnetic disturbances. Focus of the present work is the recent Japan tsunami that occurred on 11 March 2011 over Tohoku-Oki and caused enormous damage in terms of human life and infrastructures. Moreover, it triggered nuclear catastrophe that makes it a global disaster and much more alarming. The growing concern is towards failure of short-term forecasting of this event in spite that the Japan is densely populated with the various ground based seismic instrument as well with the GPS receivers that may detect the activities in the space related to the tsunami. However, owing to these dense networks, this event is examined much more thoroughly than other big events in the past, leading to the knowledge of various interesting aspects that may be helpful in the future for the short-term forecasting of such event. One such aspect is that the effects of the seismic activities occurring deep into the ocean, are detected much more efficiently and in varieties in space (in the overlying atmosphere and ionosphere) than over the ocean or Earth's surface. In the present work, hydrodynamic and hydromagnetic simulations of the atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies are performed for the Tohoku-Oki tsunami (11 March 2011). The Tsunami-Atmosphere-Ionosphere (TAI) coupling mechanism via AGWs is explored theoretically using the TAI coupled model. In this mechanism, tsunami in the ocean excites the AGWs in the atmosphere owing to the vertical uplift which subsequently interact with the ionosphere to gives rise density

  10. The Catalog of Event Data of the Operational Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) Stations at the National Data Buoy Center

    Bouchard, R.; Locke, L.; Hansen, W.; Collins, S.; McArthur, S.

    2007-12-01

    DART systems are a critical component of the tsunami warning system as they provide the only real-time, in situ, tsunami detection before landfall. DART systems consist of a surface buoy that serves as a position locater and communications transceiver and a Bottom Pressure Recorder (BPR) on the seafloor. The BPR records temperature and pressure at 15-second intervals to a memory card for later retrieval for analysis and use by tsunami researchers, but the BPRs are normally recovered only once every two years. The DART systems also transmit subsets of the data, converted to an estimation of the sea surface height, in near real-time for use by the tsunami warning community. These data are available on NDBC's webpages, http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/dart.shtml. Although not of the resolution of the data recorded to the BPR memory card, the near real-time data have proven to be of value in research applications [1]. Of particular interest are the DART data associated with geophysical events. The DART BPR continuously compares the measured sea height with a predicted sea-height and when the difference exceeds a threshold value, the BPR goes into Event Mode. Event Mode provides an extended, more frequent near real-time reporting of the sea surface heights for tsunami detection. The BPR can go into Event Mode because of geophysical triggers, such as tsunamis or seismic activity, which may or may not be tsunamigenic. The BPR can also go into Event Mode during recovery of the BPR as it leaves the seafloor, or when manually triggered by the Tsunami Warning Centers in advance of an expected tsunami. On occasion, the BPR will go into Event Mode without any associated tsunami or seismic activity or human intervention and these are considered "False'' Events. Approximately one- third of all Events can be classified as "False". NDBC is responsible for the operations, maintenance, and data management of the DART stations. Each DART station has a webpage with a drop-down list of all

  11. Tsunami-HySEA: A GPU based model for the Italian candidate Tsunami Service Provider

    Gonzalez Vida, Jose Manuel; Macias, Jorge; Castro, Manuel; de la Asuncion, Marc; Melini, Daniele; Romano, Fabrizio; Tonini, Roberto; Lorito, Stefano; Piatanesi, Alessio; Molinari, Irene

    2015-04-01

    be able to compute the generation, propagation and a first inundation stage of a seismically generated in the Mediterranean Sea, within a few minutes after the earthquake origin time. The approach will then be extensively tested with past tsunamis worldwide, as well as with any future event in the framework of CAT global monitoring training mode.

  12. A fast global tsunami modeling suite as a trans-oceanic tsunami hazard prediction and mitigation tool

    Mohammed, F.; Li, S.; Jalali Farahani, R.; Williams, C. R.; Astill, S.; Wilson, P. S.; B, S.; Lee, R.

    2014-12-01

    The past decade has been witness to two mega-tsunami events, 2004 Indian ocean tsunami and 2011 Japan tsunami and multiple major tsunami events; 2006 Java, Kuril Islands, 2007 Solomon Islands, 2009 Samoa and 2010 Chile, to name a few. These events generated both local and far field tsunami inundations with runup ranging from a few meters to around 40 m in the coastal impact regions. With a majority of the coastal population at risk, there is need for a sophisticated outlook towards catastrophe risk estimation and a quick mitigation response. At the same time tools and information are needed to aid advanced tsunami hazard prediction. There is an increased need for insurers, reinsurers and Federal hazard management agencies to quantify coastal inundations and vulnerability of coastal habitat to tsunami inundations. A novel tool is developed to model local and far-field tsunami generation, propagation and inundation to estimate tsunami hazards. The tool is a combination of the NOAA MOST propagation database and an efficient and fast GPU (Graphical Processing Unit)-based non-linear shallow water wave model solver. The tsunamigenic seismic sources are mapped on to the NOAA unit source distribution along subduction zones in the ocean basin. Slip models are defined for tsunamigenic seismic sources through a slip distribution on the unit sources while maintaining limits of fault areas. A GPU based finite volume solver is used to simulate non-linear shallow water wave propagation, inundation and runup. Deformation on the unit sources provide initial conditions for modeling local impacts, while the wave history from propagation database provides boundary conditions for far field impacts. The modeling suite provides good agreement with basins for basin wide tsunami propagation to validate local and far field tsunami inundations.

  13. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center's Response to the Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami

    Weinstein, S. A.; Becker, N. C.; Shiro, B.; Koyanagi, K. K.; Sardina, V.; Walsh, D.; Wang, D.; McCreery, C. S.; Fryer, G. J.; Cessaro, R. K.; Hirshorn, B. F.; Hsu, V.

    2011-12-01

    nearly three meters. The evacuation of Hawaii's coastlines commenced at 7:31 UTC. Concurrent with this tsunami event, a widely-felt Mw 4.6 earthquake occurred beneath the island of Hawai`i at 8:58 UTC. PTWC responded within three minutes of origin time with a Tsunami Information Statement stating that the Hawaii earthquake would not generate a tsunami. After issuing 27 international tsunami bulletins to Pacific basin countries, and 16 messages to the State of Hawaii during a period of 25 hours after the event began, PTWC concluded its role during the Tohoku tsunami event with the issuance of the corresponding warning cancellation message at 6:36 UTC on 12 March 2011. During the following weeks, however, the PTWC would continue to respond to dozens of aftershocks related to the earthquake. We will present a complete timeline of PTWC's activities, both domestic and international, during the Tohoku tsunami event. We will also illustrate the immense number of website hits, phone calls, and media requests that flooded PTWC during the course of the event, as well as the growing role social media plays in communicating tsunami hazard information to the public.

  14. Building Damage and Business Continuity Management in the Event of Natural Hazards: Case Study of the 2004 Tsunami in Sri Lanka

    Masami Sugiura

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The Sumatra Earthquake and Indian Ocean Tsunami event on the 26 December 2004 has provided a unique and valuable opportunity to evaluate the performance of various structures, facilities and lifeline systems during the tsunami wave attacks. There are especially meaningful observations concerning the structural changes due to the tsunami forces, which open up a wide area of research to develop the mitigation procedure. The business restoration process of business companies in terms of buildings, facilities and lifelines have shown greater research interest. In this study, we investigated the restoration process of business sectors in East and South coastal region in Sri Lanka after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. A field survey was conducted in East and South coast of Sri Lanka, in order to study the affecting parameters to damage assessment in the restoration process of the business companies. The results of the questionnaire-based field survey are then compared with the statistical analysis results. Finally, the factors affecting the restoration process after the tsunami are identified. As a main conclusion, financial support could be the most important reason for delays in restoration. Moreover, it has been observed that the tsunami inundation level of higher than one meter may have had more effect concerning the damage to the structures and requires additional time for restoration than other areas.

  15. Numerical simulation of a tsunami event during the 1996 volcanic eruption in Karymskoye lake, Kamchatka, Russia

    T. Torsvik

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Karymskoye caldera lake is a nearly circular body of water with a diameter of approximately 4 km and a depth of up to 60 m. The sublacustrine, Surtseyan-type eruption in the lake on 2–3 January 1996 included a series of underwater explosions. A field survey conducted the following summer showed signs of tsunami wave runup around the entire coastline of the lake, with a maximum of 29 m runup at the north shore near the source of the eruption, and 2–5 m runup at locations on the east and south shore far away from the source.

    The tsunami has been simulated using the numerical long wave model COULWAVE, with input from reconstructed realistic pre-eruption bathymetry. The tsunami source was chosen as suggested by Le Mehaute (1971 and Mirchina and Pelinovsky (1988. The initial wave was prescribed by a parabolic shape depression with a radius of R=200 m, and a height of 23 m at the rim of the parabola. Simulations were conducted to show principle directions for wave propagation, wave speed and arrival time for the leading wave group at the shore, and the distribution of wave height throughout the lake. Estimated result for wave runup are of the same order of magnitude as field measurements, except near the source of the eruption and at a few locations where analysis show significant wave breaking.

  16. Tsunamigenic Ratio of the Pacific Ocean earthquakes and a proposal for a Tsunami Index

    A. Suppasri

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The Pacific Ocean is the location where two-thirds of tsunamis have occurred, resulting in a great number of casualties. Once information on an earthquake has been issued, it is important to understand if there is a tsunami generation risk in relation with a specific earthquake magnitude or focal depth. This study proposes a Tsunamigenic Ratio (TR that is defined as the ratio between the number of earthquake-generated tsunamis and the total number of earthquakes. Earthquake and tsunami data used in this study were selected from a database containing tsunamigenic earthquakes from prior 1900 to 2011. The TR is calculated from earthquake events with a magnitude greater than 5.0, a focal depth shallower than 200 km and a sea depth less than 7 km. The results suggest that a great earthquake magnitude and a shallow focal depth have a high potential to generate tsunamis with a large tsunami height. The average TR in the Pacific Ocean is 0.4, whereas the TR for specific regions of the Pacific Ocean varies from 0.3 to 0.7. The TR calculated for each region shows the relationship between three influential parameters: earthquake magnitude, focal depth and sea depth. The three parameters were combined and proposed as a dimensionless parameter called the Tsunami Index (TI. TI can express better relationship with the TR and with maximum tsunami height, while the three parameters mentioned above cannot. The results show that recent submarine earthquakes had a higher potential to generate a tsunami with a larger tsunami height than during the last century. A tsunami is definitely generated if the TI is larger than 7.0. The proposed TR and TI will help ascertain the tsunami generation risk of each earthquake event based on a statistical analysis of the historical data and could be an important decision support tool during the early tsunami warning stage.

  17. Solomon Islands 2007 Tsunami Near-Field Modeling and Source Earthquake Deformation

    Uslu, B.; Wei, Y.; Fritz, H.; Titov, V.; Chamberlin, C.

    2008-12-01

    The earthquake of 1 April 2007 left behind momentous footages of crust rupture and tsunami impact along the coastline of Solomon Islands (Fritz and Kalligeris, 2008; Taylor et al., 2008; McAdoo et al., 2008; PARI, 2008), while the undisturbed tsunami signals were also recorded at nearby deep-ocean tsunameters and coastal tide stations. These multi-dimensional measurements provide valuable datasets to tackle the challenging aspects at the tsunami source directly by inversion from tsunameter records in real time (available in a time frame of minutes), and its relationship with the seismic source derived either from the seismometer records (available in a time frame of hours or days) or from the crust rupture measurements (available in a time frame of months or years). The tsunami measurements in the near field, including the complex vertical crust motion and tsunami runup, are particularly critical to help interpreting the tsunami source. This study develops high-resolution inundation models for the Solomon Islands to compute the near-field tsunami impact. Using these models, this research compares the tsunameter-derived tsunami source with the seismic-derived earthquake sources from comprehensive perceptions, including vertical uplift and subsidence, tsunami runup heights and their distributional pattern among the islands, deep-ocean tsunameter measurements, and near- and far-field tide gauge records. The present study stresses the significance of the tsunami magnitude, source location, bathymetry and topography in accurately modeling the generation, propagation and inundation of the tsunami waves. This study highlights the accuracy and efficiency of the tsunameter-derived tsunami source in modeling the near-field tsunami impact. As the high- resolution models developed in this study will become part of NOAA's tsunami forecast system, these results also suggest expanding the system for potential applications in tsunami hazard assessment, search and rescue operations

  18. Potential predecessors of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami — Sedimentary evidence of extreme wave events at Ban Bang Sak, SW Thailand

    Brill, D.; Brückner, H.; Jankaew, K.; Kelletat, D.; Scheffers, A.; Scheffers, S.

    2011-08-01

    Where historical records are short and/or fragmentary, geological evidence is an important tool to reconstruct the recurrence rate of extreme wave events (tsunamis and/or storms). This is particularly true for those coastal zones around the Indian Ocean, where predecessors of similar magnitude as the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami (IOT) have not been reported by written sources. In this context, the sedimentary record of the Holocene coastal plain of Ban Bang Sak (Phang-nga province, Thailand) provides evidence of multiple prehistoric coastal flooding events in the form of allochthonous sand beds, which were radiocarbon dated to 700-500, 1350-1180, and younger than 2000 cal BP. The layers were assigned to high-energy events of marine origin, which could be either tsunamis or tropical storms, by means of granulometry, geochemistry, vertical structure, and macrofossil content. Although no landfall of a strong storm has occurred in the last 150 years of meteorological data recording, cyclones cannot be ruled out for the last centuries and millennia. However, discrimination between tsunami and storm origin was mainly based on the comparison of the palaeoevent beds with the local deposit of the IOT, which revealed similar characteristics in regard to spatial extend and sediment properties. Furthermore, the youngest palaeoevent correlates with contemporaneous deposits from Thailand and more distant coasts. Hence, we relate it to a basin wide tsunami which took place 700-500 years ago. For the sediments of older extreme events, deposited between 2000 and 1180 cal BP, we found no unambiguous counterparts at other sites; nevertheless, at least for now, they are treated as tsunami candidates.

  19. POTENTIAL OF TSUNAMI GENERATION ALONG THE COLOMBIA/ECUADOR SUBDUCTION MARGIN AND THE DOLORES-GUAYAQUIL MEGA-THRUST

    George Pararas-Carayannis

    2012-01-01

    The Colombia/Ecuador subduction zone is a region where high seismic stress is presently accumulating. Statistical probability studies and GPS measurements of crustal deformation indicate that the region has an increased potential to generate in the near future a major or great tsunamigenic earthquake similar to the 1979 or 1906. Although most of the major earthquakes along this margin usually generate local tsunamis, the recurrence of a great mega-thrust, inter-plate earthquake, similar in ma...

  20. Estimating tsunami inundation from hurricane storm surge predictions along the U.S. gulf coast

    Pampell-Manis, Alyssa; Horrillo, Juan; Figlus, Jens

    2016-06-01

    Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coasts have been included in the U.S. Tsunami Warning System since 2005. While the tsunami risk for the GOM is low, tsunamis generated by local submarine landslides pose the greatest potential threat, as evidenced by several large ancient submarine mass failures identified in the northern GOM basin. Given the lack of significant historical tsunami evidence in the GOM, the potential threat of landslide tsunamis in this region is assessed from a worst-case scenario perspective based on a set of events including the large ancient failures and most likely extreme events determined by a probabilistic approach. Since tsunamis are not well-understood along the Gulf Coast, we investigate tsunami inundation referenced to category-specific hurricane storm surge levels, which are relatively well established along the Gulf Coast, in order to provide information for assessing the potential threat of tsunamis which is more understandable and accessible to emergency managers. Based on tsunami inundation studies prepared for the communities of South Padre Island, TX, Galveston, TX, Mobile, AL, Panama City, FL, and Tampa, FL, we identify regional trends of tsunami inundation in terms of modeled storm surge inundation. The general trends indicate that tsunami inundation can well exceed the level of storm surge from major hurricanes in open beachfront and barrier island regions, while more interior areas are less threatened. Such information can be used to better prepare for tsunami events as well as provide a preliminary estimate of tsunami hazard in locations where detailed tsunami inundation studies have not been completed.

  1. Status and developments of event generators

    Sjöstrand, Torbjörn

    2016-01-01

    Event generators play a crucial role in the exploration of LHC physics. This presentation summarizes news and plans for the three general-purpose pp generators HERWIG, PYTHIA and SHERPA, as well as briefer notes on a few other generators. Common themes, such as the matching and merging between matrix elements and parton showers, are highlighted. Other topics include a historical introduction, from the Lund perspective, and comments on the role of MCnet.

  2. Improving Tsunami Resilience in Europe - ASTARTE

    Baptista, Maria Ana; Yalciner, Ahmet; Canals, Miquel; Behrens, Joern; Fuhrman, David; Gonzalez, Mauricio; Harbitz, Carl; Kanoglu, Utku; Karanci, Nurai; Lavigne, Franck; Lorito, Stefano; Meghraoui, Mustafa; Melis, Nikolaos S.; Necmioglu, Ocal; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Rudloff, Alexander; Schindele, François; Terrinha, Pedro; Tinti, Stefano

    2014-05-01

    The North East Atlantic, Mediterranean and Adjacent Seas (called NEAM by IOC-UNESCO) is known to be exposed to tsunamis and, like other regions of the world, faces increasing levels of risk due to i) the continuous development of coastal areas with critical infrastructures and accumulated values, and ii) the year-round presence of millions of tourists. In recent years, European researchers have greatly advanced knowledge of tsunami hazards and implementation of operational infrastructures, such as the creation of a regional system of candidate tsunami watch providers (CTWP) and national tsunami warning centers (NTWC). However, significant gaps remain and intensified efforts are needed. The ASTARTE (Assessment STrategy And Risk for Tsunami in Europe) is a three-year long EU-funded project, started in November 2013, that aims to develop a comprehensive strategy to mitigate tsunami impact in the NEAM region. To achieve this goal, an interdisciplinary consortium has been assembled. It includes all NEAM CTWPs and expert institutions across Europe and worldwide. ASTARTE will improve i) the basic knowledge on tsunami generation and recurrence with novel empirical data and new statistical analyses for assessing long-term recurrence and hazards of large events in sensitive areas within NEAM, ii) numerical techniques for tsunami simulation focusing on real-time codes, novel statistical emulation approaches, and experiments on damage analysis, and iii) methods for the assessment of hazard, vulnerability, and risk. ASTARTE will also provide i) guidelines for tsunami Eurocodes, ii) better forecasting and warning tools for CTWPs and NTWCs, and iii) guidelines for decision makers to increase the sustainability and resilience of coastal communities. In summary, ASTARTE will develop basic scientific and technical elements allowing for a significant enhancement of the Tsunami Warning System in the NEAM region in terms of monitoring, early warning,forecast, and resilience, with

  3. Model Results For The 23 June, 2001 Peruvian Tsunami

    Titov, V.; Borrero, J.; Koshimura, S.; Ortiz, M.

    Tsunami generated by the June 23, 2001 Peruvian earthquake devastated Peru- vian coast near the epicenter and was recorded throughout Pacific by coastal tide-gages. This widespread impact motivated modeling efforts to produce re- alistic tsunami simulation of this event. Preliminary results were produced by the TIME center using two resident numerical models, TUNAMI-2 and MOST. Both models were used to produce preliminary simulation shortly after the earthquake, and first results were posted on the Internet a day after the event (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tsunami/peru_pmel.html). These numerical results aimed to quantify the magnitude of the tsunami and, to certain extend, to guide the post- tsunami survey. The first simulations have been revised using new data about the seis- mic source and the results of the post-tsunami survey by the International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST). We use the ITST measurements in heavily damaged Camana area to constrain our inundation model. Measured water-level data along the topo- graphic transects is used to constrain the inundation model. Preliminary numerical analysis of tsunami inundation will be presented.

  4. Preliminary Simulation Results of the 23 June, 2001 Peruvian Tsunami

    Titov, V. V.; Koshimura, S.; Ortiz, M.; Borrero, J.

    2001-12-01

    The tsunami generated by the June 23, 2001 Peruvian earthquake devastated a 50--km section of coast near the earthquake epicenter and was recorded on tide-gages throughout the Pacific. The coastal town of Camana sustained the most damage with tsunami waves penetrating up to 1--km inland and runup exceeding 5--m. The extreme local effects and widespread impact motivated modeling efforts to produce a realistic tsunami simulation of this event. Preliminary results were produced by the TIME center using two resident numerical models, TUNAMI--2 and MOST. Both models were used to produce preliminary simulations shortly after the earthquake, and first results were posted on the Internet a day after the event (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tsunami/peru_pmel.html). These numerical results aimed to quantify the magnitude of the tsunami and, to certain extent, to guide the post-tsunami survey. The first simulations have been revised using new data about the seismic source and the results of the post-tsunami survey. Measured inundation distances, flow depths, and runup along topographic transects are used to constrain the inundation model. Preliminary numerical analysis of tsunami inundation will be presented.

  5. THE FRENCH TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN AND NORTHEAST ATLANTIC: CENALT

    H. Hébert

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available CENALT (CENtre d’ALerte aux Tsunamis is responsible for the French National Tsunami Warning Centre (NTWC. The CENALT is established in the framework of the Unesco/IOC/ICG/NEAMTWS. Its objective is to transmit a warning message in less than fifteen minutes for any events that could trigger a tsunami in the Western Mediterranean Sea and the North- Eastern Atlantic Ocean. The data collected from French installations and from institutions of European and North African countries is processed with software that permits early epicenter location of seismic events and measurements of expected tsunami impacts on the shore. On-duty analysts revise interactively all the generated information and use references of historical tsunami and earthquake databases - as well as computed tsunami scenarios – in order to disseminate the more comprehensive message possible.

  6. Boulder Deposits on the Southern Spanish Atlantic Coast: Possible Evidence for the 1755 AD Lisbon Tsunami?

    Dieter Kelletat

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Field evidence of visible tsunami impacts in Europe is scarce. This research focused on an analysis of large littoral debris and accompanying geomorphic features and their rela- tionship to a tsunami event at Cabo de Trafalgar, located on the southern Spanish Atlantic coast. Relative dating of weathering features as well as minor bioconstructive forms in the littoral zone suggest the Lisbon tsunami of 1755 AD as the event responsible for the large deposits described. This tsunami had run up heights of more than 19 m and was generated at the Gorringe Bank, located 500 km west off the Cape. Tsunami deposits at Cabo de Tra- falgar are the first boulder deposits identified on the southern Spanish Atlantic coast and are located approximately 250 km southeast of the Algarve coast (Portugal, where other geo- morphic evidence for the Lisbon tsunami has been reported.

  7. The Euro-Mediterranean Tsunami Catalogue

    Alessandra Maramai

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available A unified catalogue containing 290 tsunamis generated in the European and Mediterranean seas since 6150 B.C. to current days is presented. It is the result of a systematic and detailed review of all the regional catalogues available in literature covering the study area, each of them having their own format and level of accuracy. The realization of a single catalogue covering a so wide area and involving several countries was a complex task that posed a series of challenges, being the standardization and the quality of the data the most demanding. A “reliability” value was used to rate equally the quality of the data for each event and this parameter was assigned based on the trustworthiness of the information related to the generating cause, the tsunami description accuracy and also on the availability of coeval bibliographical sources. Following these criteria we included in the catalogue events whose reliability ranges from 0 (“very improbable tsunami” to 4 (“definite tsunami”. About 900 documentary sources, including historical documents, books, scientific reports, newspapers and previous catalogues, support the tsunami data and descriptions gathered in this catalogue. As a result, in the present paper a list of the 290 tsunamis with their main parameters is reported. The online version of the catalogue, available at http://roma2.rm.ingv.it/en/facilities/data_bases/52/catalogue_of_the_euro-mediterranean_tsunamis, provides additional information such as detailed descriptions, pictures, etc. and the complete list of bibliographical sources. Most of the included events have a high reliability value (3= “probable” and 4= “definite” which makes the Euro-Mediterranean Tsunami Catalogue an essential tool for the implementation of tsunami hazard and risk assessment.

  8. Real-time determination of the worst tsunami scenario based on Earthquake Early Warning

    Furuya, Takashi; Koshimura, Shunichi; Hino, Ryota; Ohta, Yusaku; Inoue, Takuya

    2016-04-01

    In recent years, real-time tsunami inundation forecasting has been developed with the advances of dense seismic monitoring, GPS Earth observation, offshore tsunami observation networks, and high-performance computing infrastructure (Koshimura et al., 2014). Several uncertainties are involved in tsunami inundation modeling and it is believed that tsunami generation model is one of the great uncertain sources. Uncertain tsunami source model has risk to underestimate tsunami height, extent of inundation zone, and damage. Tsunami source inversion using observed seismic, geodetic and tsunami data is the most effective to avoid underestimation of tsunami, but needs to expect more time to acquire the observed data and this limitation makes difficult to terminate real-time tsunami inundation forecasting within sufficient time. Not waiting for the precise tsunami observation information, but from disaster management point of view, we aim to determine the worst tsunami source scenario, for the use of real-time tsunami inundation forecasting and mapping, using the seismic information of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) that can be obtained immediately after the event triggered. After an earthquake occurs, JMA's EEW estimates magnitude and hypocenter. With the constraints of earthquake magnitude, hypocenter and scaling law, we determine possible multi tsunami source scenarios and start searching the worst one by the superposition of pre-computed tsunami Green's functions, i.e. time series of tsunami height at offshore points corresponding to 2-dimensional Gaussian unit source, e.g. Tsushima et al., 2014. Scenario analysis of our method consists of following 2 steps. (1) Searching the worst scenario range by calculating 90 scenarios with various strike and fault-position. From maximum tsunami height of 90 scenarios, we determine a narrower strike range which causes high tsunami height in the area of concern. (2) Calculating 900 scenarios that have different strike, dip, length

  9. Explanation of temporal clustering of tsunami sources using the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model

    Geist, Eric L.

    2014-01-01

    Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is examined in terms of a branching process model. It previously was observed that there are more short interevent times between consecutive tsunami sources than expected from a stationary Poisson process. The epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) branching process model is fitted to tsunami catalog events, using the earthquake magnitude of the causative event from the Centennial and Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalogs and tsunami sizes above a completeness level as a mark to indicate that a tsunami was generated. The ETAS parameters are estimated using the maximum‐likelihood method. The interevent distribution associated with the ETAS model provides a better fit to the data than the Poisson model or other temporal clustering models. When tsunamigenic conditions (magnitude threshold, submarine location, dip‐slip mechanism) are applied to the Global CMT catalog, ETAS parameters are obtained that are consistent with those estimated from the tsunami catalog. In particular, the dip‐slip condition appears to result in a near zero magnitude effect for triggered tsunami sources. The overall consistency between results from the tsunami catalog and that from the earthquake catalog under tsunamigenic conditions indicates that ETAS models based on seismicity can provide the structure for understanding patterns of tsunami source occurrence. The fractional rate of triggered tsunami sources on a global basis is approximately 14%.

  10. Tsunamis from nature to physics

    Helal, M.A. [Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, University of Cairo, Giza, Cairo (Egypt)], E-mail: mahelal@yahoo.com; Mehanna, M.S. [Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, University of Cairo, Giza, Cairo (Egypt)

    2008-05-15

    Tsunamis are gravity waves that propagate near the ocean surface. They belong to the same family as common sea waves that we enjoy at the beach; however, tsunamis are distinct in their mode of generation and in their characteristic period, wavelength, and velocity. The type of tsunamis that induce widespread damage number about one or two per decade. Thus 'killer tsunamis' although fearful, are a relatively rare phenomenon.

  11. Evidence for a Tsunami Event and Coastal Reorganization in the New York Metropolitan Region ~2300 yr BP

    Krentz, S.; Goodbred, S.; Nitsche, F.; McHugh, C.; Carbotte, S.; Slagle, A.; Klein, E.

    2008-12-01

    It is widely recognized that major events such as tsunamis have significant effects on coastal systems over short timescales. While many of these systems show a recovery to the pre-event dynamic equilibrium, it is less well known how often such a recovery does not occur. Recent studies document a widespread reorganization occurring in the New York and New Jersey coastal region between 2100-2400 yr BP that has persisted to the present. Sediment cores and shallow-seismic surveys also reveal a high energy, potentially tsunamigenic event occurring at the same time, possibly as the source of this reorganization. In Great South Bay backbarrier lagoon, a prominent event layer of gravel-based sands and reworked shell deposits sits at the transition between between highly vegetated fresh/brackish marsh deposits and the current open estuarine conditions. The facies is well constrained by radiocarbon dates to 2200-2400 yr BP and is consistent with grain size and distribution of tsunamigenic emplacement. In the nearby Hudson River estuary an erosional unconformity, dated between 2000-2400 yr BP, is observed in the seismic and core data. Also in this portion of the Hudson is a series of distinct woody debris layers, dated between 2200-2400 yr BP. Further south, off Sandy Hook, is another prominent Holocene unconformity as well as a chaotic mass- wasting deposit containing terrigenous clay clasts mixed with marine sediments and mollusks. On the New Jersey shelf, a 20cm thick sandy mass-flow recovered at 600 m of water depth and dated at 2170 is also documented. Geologic evidence seems to show that the ~2300 yr BP event had a considerable and enduring impact on the coastal system. As the NY-NJ coast is one of significant population, understanding the recurrence and impact of such an event is critical.

  12. Does MoSE cope with inland tsunamis hazard?

    Panza, Giuliano Francesco; Romanelli, Fabio

    2014-01-01

    In this work we use morphostructural zonation and pattern recognition techniques to identify a potential seismic source located inland very near Venice, and then we evaluate how a tsunami wave generated from this source can affect the MoSE gates if they are standing up (closed) during the tsunami event. From our simulation we get both peaks and troughs as first arrivals: the behavior of the barriers in these two situations could be a very important design matter.

  13. Performance of coastal sea-defense infrastructure at El Jadida (Morocco against tsunami threat: lessons learned from the Japanese 11 March 2011 tsunami

    R. Omira

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper seeks to investigate the effectiveness of sea-defense structures in preventing/reducing the tsunami overtopping as well as evaluating the resulting tsunami impact at El Jadida, Morocco. Different tsunami wave conditions are generated by considering various earthquake scenarios of magnitudes ranging from Mw = 8.0 to Mw = 8.6. These scenarios represent the main active earthquake faults in the SW Iberia margin and are consistent with two past events that generated tsunamis along the Atlantic coast of Morocco. The behaviour of incident tsunami waves when interacting with coastal infrastructures is analysed on the basis of numerical simulations of near-shore tsunami waves' propagation. Tsunami impact at the affected site is assessed through computing inundation and current velocity using a high-resolution digital terrain model that incorporates bathymetric, topographic and coastal structures data. Results, in terms of near-shore tsunami propagation snapshots, waves' interaction with coastal barriers, and spatial distributions of flow depths and speeds, are presented and discussed in light of what was observed during the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami. Predicted results show different levels of impact that different tsunami wave conditions could generate in the region. Existing coastal barriers around the El Jadida harbour succeeded in reflecting relatively small waves generated by some scenarios, but failed in preventing the overtopping caused by waves from others. Considering the scenario highly impacting the El Jadida coast, significant inundations are computed at the sandy beach and unprotected areas. The modelled dramatic tsunami impact in the region shows the need for additional tsunami standards not only for sea-defense structures but also for the coastal dwellings and houses to provide potential in-place evacuation.

  14. Post Fukushima tsunami simulations for Malaysian coasts

    Koh, Hock Lye; Teh, Su Yean; Abas, Mohd Rosaidi Che

    2014-10-01

    The recent recurrences of mega tsunamis in the Asian region have rekindled concern regarding potential tsunamis that could inflict severe damage to affected coastal facilities and communities. The 11 March 2011 Fukushima tsunami that crippled nuclear power plants in Northern Japan has further raised the level of caution. The recent discovery of petroleum reserves in the coastal water surrounding Malaysia further ignites the concern regarding tsunami hazards to petroleum facilities located along affected coasts. Working in a group, federal government agencies seek to understand the dynamics of tsunami and their impacts under the coordination of the Malaysian National Centre for Tsunami Research, Malaysian Meteorological Department. Knowledge regarding the generation, propagation and runup of tsunami would provide the scientific basis to address safety issues. An in-house tsunami simulation models known as TUNA has been developed by the authors to assess tsunami hazards along affected beaches so that mitigation measures could be put in place. Capacity building on tsunami simulation plays a critical role in the development of tsunami resilience. This paper aims to first provide a simple introduction to tsunami simulation towards the achievement of tsunami simulation capacity building. The paper will also present several scenarios of tsunami dangers along affected Malaysia coastal regions via TUNA simulations to highlight tsunami threats. The choice of tsunami generation parameters reflects the concern following the Fukushima tsunami.

  15. VALIDATION OF THE JRC TSUNAMI PROPAGATION AND INUNDATION CODES

    N. Zamora

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In the last years several numerical codes have been developed to analyse tsunami waves. Most of these codes use a finite difference numerical approach giving good results for tsunami wave propagation, but with limitations in modelling inundation processes. The HyFlux2 model has been developed to simulate inundation scenario due to dam break, flash flood and tsunami-wave run-up. The model solves the conservative form of the two-dimensional shallow water equations using a finite volume method. The implementation of a shoreline-tracking method provides reliable results. HyFlux2 robustness has been tested using several tsunami events. The main aim of this study is code validation by means of comparing different code results with available measurements. Another objective of the study is to evaluate how the different fault models could generate different results that should be considered for coastal planning. Several simulations have been performed to compare HyFlux2 code with SWAN-JRC code and the TUNAMI-N2. HyFlux2 has been validated taking advantage of the extensive seismic, geodetic measurements and post-tsunami field surveys performed after the Nias March 28th tsunami. Although more detailed shallow bathymetry is needed to assess the inundation, diverse results in the wave heights have been revealed when comparing the different fault mechanism. Many challenges still exist for tsunami researchers especially when concern to early warning systems as shown in this Nias March 28th tsunami.

  16. New developments in event generator tuning techniques

    Buckley, Andy; Lacker, Heiko; Schulz, Holger; von Seggern, Jan Eike

    2010-01-01

    Data analyses in hadron collider physics depend on background simulations performed by Monte Carlo (MC) event generators. However, calculational limitations and non-perturbative effects require approximate models with adjustable parameters. In fact, we need to simultaneously tune many phenomenological parameters in a high-dimensional parameter-space in order to make the MC generator predictions fit the data. It is desirable to achieve this goal without spending too much time or computing resources iterating parameter settings and comparing the same set of plots over and over again. We present extensions and improvements to the MC tuning system, Professor, which addresses the aforementioned problems by constructing a fast analytic model of a MC generator which can then be easily fitted to data. Using this procedure it is for the first time possible to get a robust estimate of the uncertainty of generator tunings. Furthermore, we can use these uncertainty estimates to study the effect of new (pseudo-) data on t...

  17. Tsunami Characteristics Along the Peru-Chile Trench: Analysis of the 2015 Mw8.3 Illapel, the 2014 Mw8.2 Iquique and the 2010 Mw8.8 Maule Tsunamis in the Near-field

    Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.; Lisboa, F.

    2016-04-01

    Tsunamis occur quite frequently following large magnitude earthquakes along the Chilean coast. Most of these earthquakes occur along the Peru-Chile Trench, one of the most seismically active subduction zones of the world. This study aims to understand better the characteristics of the tsunamis triggered along the Peru-Chile Trench. We investigate the tsunamis induced by the Mw8.3 Illapel, the Mw8.2 Iquique and the Mw8.8 Maule Chilean earthquakes that happened on September 16th, 2015, April 1st, 2014 and February 27th, 2010, respectively. The study involves the relation between the co-seismic deformation and the tsunami generation, the near-field tsunami propagation, and the spectral analysis of the recorded tsunami signals in the near-field. We compare the tsunami characteristics to highlight the possible similarities between the three events and, therefore, attempt to distinguish the specific characteristics of the tsunamis occurring along the Peru-Chile Trench. We find that these three earthquakes present faults with important extensions beneath the continent which result in the generation of tsunamis with short wavelengths, relative to the fault widths involved, and with reduced initial potential energy. In addition, the presence of the Chilean continental margin, that includes the shelf of shallow bathymetry and the continental slope, constrains the tsunami propagation and the coastal impact. All these factors contribute to a concentrated local impact but can, on the other hand, reduce the far-field tsunami effects from earthquakes along Peru-Chile Trench.

  18. Comparison of the 2010 and 2007 Solomon Island Tsunamis

    Kalligeris, N.; Fritz, H.; Newman, A. V.; Feng, L.; Lifton, Z. M.; Wei, Y.; Titov, V. V.; Uslu, B. U.

    2010-12-01

    The 3 January 2010 Mw 7.1 earthquake off Rendova and Tetepare Islands, Western Province, Solomon Islands, generated surprisingly large tsunami waves, completely destroying Retavo village at Rendova Island’s south shore, located approximately 15 km from the trench. A reconnaissance team was deployed within a week, measuring local tsunami heights, maximum tsunami runup/inundation, coastal subsidence, co-seismic offset and afterslip, and interviewed eyewitnesses per established methods. This event occurred three years after the 1 April 2007 Mw 8.1 megathrust earthquake that generated a wide-spread tsunami across the Western Province Islands, causing 52 human casualties (Fritz and Kalligeris 2008). Although much smaller in magnitude than the 2007 event (below the assumed tsunamigenic magnitude threshold of ~Mw 7.5), the 2010 event produced a larger localized flow depth, and only moderately smaller runup, reaching a maximum value of 7 m on the southern shore of Rendova Isl. Observations of widespread subsidence on the south coasts of Rendova and Tetepare Islands ruled out the most probable shallow-dipping megathrust model of earthquake rupture. Instead, a high-angle conjugate intraslab thrust within the down going plate is preferred, agreeing with the seismically defined moment tensor, the observed coseismic subsidence, and enhanced tsunami excitation. The two events showed that SI population is very aware of its vulnerability to tsunamis, which we attribute to ancestral tsunami knowledge. Similar observations were made in Chile this year, where residents in most areas self-evacuated, significantly containing human casualties. We will compare the two Solomon Island events, in terms of our field findings, the source deformation models that best fit the observations, and present preliminary tsunami modeling results. Inundation in Tapurai village, Simbo Island in 2007 (left), and in Retavo village, Rendova Island in 2010 (right).

  19. Generating tsunami risk knowledge at community level as a base for planning and implementation of risk reduction strategies

    Wegscheider, S.; Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Mück, M.; Strunz, G.; T. Riedlinger; A. Muhari; H. Z. Anwar

    2011-01-01

    More than 4 million Indonesians live in tsunami-prone areas along the southern and western coasts of Sumatra, Java and Bali. Although a Tsunami Early Warning Center in Jakarta now exists, installed after the devastating 2004 tsunami, it is essential to develop tsunami risk knowledge within the exposed communities as a basis for tsunami disaster management. These communities need to implement risk reduction strategies to mitigate potential consequences.

    The major aims of t...

  20. NOAA/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center Pacific Ocean response criteria

    Whitmore, P.; Benz, H.; Bolton, M.; Crawford, G.; Dengler, L.; Fryer, G.; Goltz, J.; Hansen, R.; Kryzanowski, K.; Malone, S.; Oppenheimer, D.; Petty, E.; Rogers, G.; Wilson, Jim

    2008-01-01

    New West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) response criteria for earthquakes occurring in the Pacific basin are presented. Initial warning decisions are based on earthquake location, magnitude, depth, and - dependent on magnitude - either distance from source or precomputed threat estimates generated from tsunami models. The new criteria will help limit the geographical extent of warnings and advisories to threatened regions, and complement the new operational tsunami product suite. Changes to the previous criteria include: adding hypocentral depth dependence, reducing geographical warning extent for the lower magnitude ranges, setting special criteria for areas not well-connected to the open ocean, basing warning extent on pre-computed threat levels versus tsunami travel time for very large events, including the new advisory product, using the advisory product for far-offshore events in the lower magnitude ranges, and specifying distances from the coast for on-shore events which may be tsunamigenic. This report sets a baseline for response criteria used by the WCATWC considering its processing and observational data capabilities as well as its organizational requirements. Criteria are set for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, which are by far the main cause of tsunami generation (either directly through sea floor displacement or indirectly by triggering of slumps). As further research and development provides better tsunami source definition, observational data streams, and improved analysis tools, the criteria will continue to adjust. Future lines of research and development capable of providing operational tsunami warning centers with better tools are discussed.

  1. Tsunamis in Cuba?; Tsunamis en Cuba?

    Cotilla Rodriguez, M. O.

    2011-07-01

    Cuba as neo tectonics structure in the southern of the North American plate had three tsunamis. One of them [local] occurred in the Central-Northern region [1931.10.01, Nortecubana fault], the other was a tele tsunami [1755.11.01, in the SW of the Iberian Peninsula] that hit the Bay of Santiago de Cuba, and the third took place at 1867.11.18, by the regional source of Virgin Islands, which produced waves in the Eastern Cuban region. This tsunami originated to the NE of Puerto Rico in 1918.10.11, with another earthquake of equal magnitude and at similar coordinates, produced a tsunami that did not affect Cuba. Information on the influence of regional tsunami in 1946.08.08 of the NE of the Dominican Republic [Matanzas] in Northwestern Cuba [beaches Guanabo-Baracoa] is contrary to expectations with the waves propagation. The local event of 1939.08.15 attributed to Central- Northern Cuba [Cayo Frances with M = 8.1] does not correspond at all with the maximum magnitude of earthquakes in this region and the potential of the Nortecubana fault. Tsunamis attributed to events such as 1766.06.11 and 1932.02.03 in the Santiago de Cuba Bay are not reflected in the original documents from experts and eyewitnesses. Tsunamis from Jamaica have not affected the coasts of Cuba, despite its proximity. There is no influence in Cuba of tsunamigenic sources of the southern and western parts of the Caribbean, or the Gulf of Mexico. Set out the doubts as to the influence of tsunamis from Haiti and Dominican Republic at Guantanamo Bay which is closer to and on the same latitude, and spatial orientation than the counterpart of Santiago de Cuba, that had impact. The number of fatalities by authors in the Caribbean is different and contradictory. (Author) 76 refs.

  2. Effect of the Bottom Topography on Tsunami Propagation in the East (Japan) Sea

    2008-01-01

    A study of tsunami events in the East (Japan) Sea using continuous Galerkin finite element model, aiming at reproducing tsunami waves generated by underwater earthquakes in 1983 and 1993 respectively has been performed focusing on the geographic extent of a topographic feature in the East (Japan) Sea. Numerical models can be the proper tools to study the combined effects of realistic topography. Subsequently, using the FEM based two-dimensional model we have simulated the smoothed and flattened topographic effects by removal of Yamato Rise and seamounts for the cases of tthe 1983 Central region earthquake tsunami and the 1993 southwestern Hokkaido earthquake tsunami. The results have shown that there will be higher tsunamis along the eastern coasts of Korea in general except some areas, like Sokcho with removal of topographic highs, thus providing complicated bottom topography of the East (Japan) Sea as effective tsunami energy scattering.

  3. Probability-Based Design Criteria of the ASCE 7 Tsunami Loads and Effects Provisions (Invited)

    Chock, G.

    2013-12-01

    Mitigation of tsunami risk requires a combination of emergency preparedness for evacuation in addition to providing structural resilience of critical facilities, infrastructure, and key resources necessary for immediate response and economic and social recovery. Critical facilities would include emergency response, medical, tsunami refuges and shelters, ports and harbors, lifelines, transportation, telecommunications, power, financial institutions, and major industrial/commercial facilities. The Tsunami Loads and Effects Subcommittee of the ASCE/SEI 7 Standards Committee is developing a proposed new Chapter 6 - Tsunami Loads and Effects for the 2016 edition of the ASCE 7 Standard. ASCE 7 provides the minimum design loads and requirements for structures subject to building codes such as the International Building Code utilized in the USA. In this paper we will provide a review emphasizing the intent of these new code provisions and explain the design methodology. The ASCE 7 provisions for Tsunami Loads and Effects enables a set of analysis and design methodologies that are consistent with performance-based engineering based on probabilistic criteria. . The ASCE 7 Tsunami Loads and Effects chapter will be initially applicable only to the states of Alaska, Washington, Oregon, California, and Hawaii. Ground shaking effects and subsidence from a preceding local offshore Maximum Considered Earthquake will also be considered prior to tsunami arrival for Alaska and states in the Pacific Northwest regions governed by nearby offshore subduction earthquakes. For national tsunami design provisions to achieve a consistent reliability standard of structural performance for community resilience, a new generation of tsunami inundation hazard maps for design is required. The lesson of recent tsunami is that historical records alone do not provide a sufficient measure of the potential heights of future tsunamis. Engineering design must consider the occurrence of events greater than

  4. Sandy signs of a tsunami's onshore depth and speed

    Huntington, K.; Bourgeois, J.; Gelfenbaum, G.; Lynett, P.; Jaffe, B.; Yeh, H.; Weiss, R.

    2007-01-01

    Tsunamis rank among the most devastating and unpredictable natural hazards to affect coastal areas. Just 3 years ago, in December 2004, the Indian Ocean tsunami caused more than 225,000 deaths. Like many extreme events, however, destructive tsunamis strike rarely enough that written records span too little time to quantify tsunami hazard and risk. Tsunami deposits preserved in the geologic record have been used to extend the record of tsunami occurrence but not the magnitude of past events. To quantify tsunami hazard further, we asked the following question: Can ancient deposits also provide guidance on the expectable water depths and speeds for future tsunamis?

  5. NOAA's Integrated Tsunami Database: Data for improved forecasts, warnings, research, and risk assessments

    Stroker, Kelly; Dunbar, Paula; Mungov, George; Sweeney, Aaron; McCullough, Heather; Carignan, Kelly

    2015-04-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has primary responsibility in the United States for tsunami forecast, warning, research, and supports community resiliency. NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and co-located World Data Service for Geophysics provide a unique collection of data enabling communities to ensure preparedness and resilience to tsunami hazards. Immediately following a damaging or fatal tsunami event there is a need for authoritative data and information. The NGDC Global Historical Tsunami Database (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/) includes all tsunami events, regardless of intensity, as well as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions that caused fatalities, moderate damage, or generated a tsunami. The long-term data from these events, including photographs of damage, provide clues to what might happen in the future. NGDC catalogs the information on global historical tsunamis and uses these data to produce qualitative tsunami hazard assessments at regional levels. In addition to the socioeconomic effects of a tsunami, NGDC also obtains water level data from the coasts and the deep-ocean at stations operated by the NOAA/NOS Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers, and the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and produces research-quality data to isolate seismic waves (in the case of the deep-ocean sites) and the tsunami signal. These water-level data provide evidence of sea-level fluctuation and possible inundation events. NGDC is also building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) to support real-time forecasts, implemented at 75 US coastal communities. After a damaging or fatal event NGDC begins to collect and integrate data and information from many organizations into the hazards databases. Sources of data include our NOAA partners, the U.S. Geological Survey, the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) and International Tsunami Information Center

  6. Offshore Evidence for an Undocumented Tsunami Event in the ‘Low Risk’ Gulf of Aqaba-Eilat, Northern Red Sea

    Goodman Tchernov, Beverly; Katz, Timor; Shaked, Yonathan; Qupty, Nairooz; Kanari, Mor; Niemi, Tina; Agnon, Amotz

    2016-01-01

    Although the Gulf of Aqaba-Eilat is located in the tectonically active northern Red Sea, it has been described as low-risk with regard to tsunami activity because there are no modern records of damaging tsunami events and only one tsunami (1068 AD) referred to in historical records. However, this assessment may be poorly informed given that the area was formed by and is located along the seismically active Dead Sea Fault, its population is known to fluctuate in size and literacy in part due to its harsh hyper-arid climate, and there is a dearth of field studies addressing the presence or absence of tsunamigenic deposits. Here we show evidence from two offshore cores for a major paleotsunami that occurred ~2300 years ago with a sedimentological footprint that far exceeds the scarce markers of the historically mentioned 1068 AD event. The interpretation is based on the presence of a laterally continuous and synchronous, anomalous sedimentological deposit that includes allochtonous inclusions and unique structural characteristics. Based on sedimentological parameters, these deposits could not be accounted for by other transport events, or other known background sedimentological processes. PMID:26815553

  7. Combining SLBL routine with landslide-generated tsunami model for a quick hazard assessment tool

    Franz, Martin; Rudaz, Benjamin; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Podladchikov, Yury

    2016-04-01

    Regions with steep topography are potentially subject to landslide-induced tsunami, because of the proximity between lakes, rivers, sea shores and potential instabilities. The concentration of the population and infrastructures on the water body shores and downstream valleys could lead to catastrophic consequences. In order to assess comprehensively this phenomenon together with the induced risks, we have developed a tool which allows the construction of the landslide geometry, and which is able to simulate its propagation, the generation and the propagation of the wave and eventually the spread on the shores or the associated downstream flow. The tool is developed in the Matlab© environment, with a graphical user interface (GUI) to select the parameters in a user-friendly manner. The whole process is done in three steps implying different methods. Firstly, the geometry of the sliding mass is constructed using the Sloping Local Base Level (SLBL) concept. Secondly, the propagation of this volume is performed using a model based on viscous flow equations. Finally, the wave generation and its propagation are simulated using the shallow water equations stabilized by the Lax-Friedrichs scheme. The transition between wet and dry bed is performed by the combination of the two latter sets of equations. The intensity map is based on the criterion of flooding in Switzerland provided by the OFEG and results from the multiplication of the velocity and the depth obtained during the simulation. The tool can be used for hazard assessment in the case of well-known landslides, where the SLBL routine can be constrained and checked for realistic construction of the geometrical model. In less-known cases, various failure plane geometries can be automatically built between given range and thus a multi-scenario approach is used. In any case, less-known parameters such as the landslide velocity, its run-out distance, etc. can also be set to vary within given ranges, leading to multi

  8. Tsunami Hazard in Crescent City, California from Kuril Islands earthquakes

    Dengler, L.; Uslu, B.; Barberopoulou, A.

    2007-12-01

    On November 15, Crescent City in Del Norte County, California was hit by a series of tsunami surges generated by the M = 8.3 Kuril Islands earthquake causing an estimated 9.7 million (US dollars) in damages to the small boat basin. This was the first significant tsunami loss on US territory since the 1964 Alaska tsunami. The damage occurred nearly 8 hours after the official tsunami alert bulletins had been cancelled. The tsunami caused no flooding and did not exceed the ambient high tide level. All of the damage was caused by strong currents, estimated at 12 to 15 knots, causing the floating docks to be pinned against the pilings and water to flow over them. The event highlighted problems in warning criteria and communications for a marginal event with the potential for only localized impacts, the vulnerability of harbors from a relatively modest tsunami, and the particular exposure of the Crescent City harbor area to tsunamis. It also illustrated the poor understanding of local officials of the duration of tsunami hazard. As a result of the November tsunami, interim changes were made by WCATWC to address localized hazards in areas like Crescent City. On January 13, 2007 when a M = 8.1 earthquake occurred in the Kuril Islands, a formal procedure was in place for hourly conference calls between WCATWC, California State Office of Emergency Services officials, local weather Service Offices and local emergency officials, significantly improving the decision making process and the communication among the federal, state and local officials. Kuril Island tsunamis are relatively common at Crescent City. Since 1963, five tsunamis generated by Kuril Island earthquakes have been recorded on the Crescent City tide gauge, two with amplitudes greater than 0.5 m. We use the MOST model to simulate the 2006, 2007 and 1994 events and to examine the difference between damaging and non-damaging events at Crescent City. Small changes in the angle of the rupture zone results can result

  9. Event generation with SHERPA 1.1

    Gleisberg, T.; Hoche, Stefan.; Krauss, F.; Schoenherr, M.; Schumann, S.; Siegert, F.; Winter, J.

    2008-12-18

    In this paper the current release of the Monte Carlo event generator Sherpa, version 1.1, is presented. Sherpa is a general-purpose tool for the simulation of particle collisions at high-energy colliders. It contains a very flexible tree-level matrix-element generator for the calculation of hard scattering processes within the Standard Model and various new physics models. The emission of additional QCD partons off the initial and final states is described through a parton-shower model. To consistently combine multi-parton matrix elements with the QCD parton cascades the approach of Catani, Krauss, Kuhn and Webber is employed. A simple model of multiple interactions is used to account for underlying events in hadron-hadron collisions. The fragmentation of partons into primary hadrons is described using a phenomenological cluster-hadronization model. A comprehensive library for simulating tau-lepton and hadron decays is provided. Where available form-factor models and matrix elements are used, allowing for the inclusion of spin correlations; effects of virtual and real QED corrections are included using the approach of Yennie, Frautschi and Suura.

  10. Near-source observations and modeling of the Kuril Islands tsunamis of 15 November 2006 and 13 January 2007

    A. B. Rabinovich

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Two major earthquakes near the Central Kuril Islands (Mw=8.3 on 15 November 2006 and Mw=8.1 on 13 January 2007 generated trans-oceanic tsunamis recorded over the entire Pacific Ocean. The strongest oscillations, exceeding several meters, occurred near the source region of the Kuril Islands. Tide gauge records for both tsunamis have been thoroughly examined and numerical models of the events have been constructed. The models of the 2006 and 2007 events include two important advancements in the simulation of seismically generated tsunamis: (a the use of the finite failure source models by Ji (2006, 2007 which provide more detailed information than conventional models on spatial displacements in the source areas and which avoid uncertainties in source extent; and (b the use of the three-dimensional Laplace equation to reconstruct the initial tsunami sea surface elevation (avoiding the usual shallow-water approximation. The close agreement of our simulated results with the observed tsunami waveforms at the open-ocean DART stations support the validity of this approach. Observational and model findings reveal that energy fluxes of the tsunami waves from the source areas were mainly directed southeastward toward the Hawaiian Islands, with relatively little energy propagation into the Sea of Okhotsk. A marked feature of both tsunamis was their high-frequency content, with typical wave periods ranging from 2–3 to 15–20 min. Despite certain similarities, the two tsunamis were essentially different and had opposite polarity: the leading wave of the November 2006 trans-oceanic tsunami was positive, while that for the January 2007 trans-oceanic tsunami was negative. Numerical modeling of both tsunamis indicates that, due to differences in their seismic source properties, the 2006 tsunami was more wide-spread but less focused than the 2007 tsunami.

  11. A review of tsunami simulation activities for NPPs safety

    The tsunami generated on December 26, 2004 due to Sumatra earthquake of magnitude 9.3 resulted in inundation at the various coastal sites of India. The site selection and design of Indian nuclear power plants demand the evaluation of run up and the structural barriers for the coastal plants: Besides it is also desirable to evaluate the early warning system for tsunamigenic earthquakes. The tsunamis originate from submarine faults, underwater volcanic activities, sub-aerial landslides impinging on the sea and submarine landslides. In case of a submarine earthquake-induced tsunami the wave is generated in the fluid domain due to displacement of the seabed. There are three phases of tsunami: generation, propagation, and run-up. Reactor Safety Division (RSD) of Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC), Trombay has initiated computational simulation for all the three phases of tsunami source generation, its propagation and finally run up evaluation for the protection of public life, property and various industrial infrastructures located on the coastal regions of India. These studies could be effectively utilized for design and implementation of early warning system for coastal region of the country apart from catering to the needs of Indian nuclear installations. This paper presents some results of tsunami waves based on finite difference numerical approaches with shallow water wave theory. The present paper evaluate the results of various simulation i.e. Single fault Sumatra model, four and five fault Sumatra Model, Nias insignificant tsunami and also some parametric studies results for tsunami waring system scenario generation. A study is carried for the tsunami due to Sumatra earthquake in 2004 with TUNAMI-N2 software. Bathymetry data available from the National Geophysical Data Center was used for this study. The single fault and detailed four and five fault data were used to calculate sea surface deformations which were subsequently used as initial conditions for

  12. An improved process event log artificial negative event generator.

    vanden Broucke, Seppe; De Weerdt, Jochen; Vanthienen, Jan; Baesens, Bart

    2012-01-01

    Process mining is the research area that is concerned with knowledge discovery from event logs and is often situated at the intersection of the fields of data mining and business process management. Although the term entails a collection of a-posteriori analysis methods for extracting knowledge from event logs, most of the attention in the process mining literature has been given to process discovery techniques, focusing specifically on the extraction of control-flow models from event logs. P...

  13. Web-based Tsunami Early Warning System: a case study of the 2010 Kepulaunan Mentawai Earthquake and Tsunami

    Ulutas, E.; Inan, A.; Annunziato, A.

    2012-06-01

    This study analyzes the response of the Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS) in relation to a case study: the Kepulaunan Mentawai earthquake and related tsunami, which occurred on 25 October 2010. The GDACS, developed by the European Commission Joint Research Center, combines existing web-based disaster information management systems with the aim to alert the international community in case of major disasters. The tsunami simulation system is an integral part of the GDACS. In more detail, the study aims to assess the tsunami hazard on the Mentawai and Sumatra coasts: the tsunami heights and arrival times have been estimated employing three propagation models based on the long wave theory. The analysis was performed in three stages: (1) pre-calculated simulations by using the tsunami scenario database for that region, used by the GDACS system to estimate the alert level; (2) near-real-time simulated tsunami forecasts, automatically performed by the GDACS system whenever a new earthquake is detected by the seismological data providers; and (3) post-event tsunami calculations using GCMT (Global Centroid Moment Tensor) fault mechanism solutions proposed by US Geological Survey (USGS) for this event. The GDACS system estimates the alert level based on the first type of calculations and on that basis sends alert messages to its users; the second type of calculations is available within 30-40 min after the notification of the event but does not change the estimated alert level. The third type of calculations is performed to improve the initial estimations and to have a better understanding of the extent of the possible damage. The automatic alert level for the earthquake was given between Green and Orange Alert, which, in the logic of GDACS, means no need or moderate need of international humanitarian assistance; however, the earthquake generated 3 to 9 m tsunami run-up along southwestern coasts of the Pagai Islands where 431 people died. The post-event

  14. Modern Particle Physics Event Generation with WHIZARD

    Reuter, J; Nejad, B Chokoufe; Kilian, W; Ohl, T; Sekulla, M; Weiss, C

    2014-01-01

    We describe the multi-purpose Monte-Carlo event generator WHIZARD for the simulation of high-energy particle physics experiments. Besides the presentation of the general features of the program like SM physics, BSM physics, and QCD effects, special emphasis will be given to the support of the most accurate simulation of the collider environments at hadron colliders and especially at future linear lepton colliders. On the more technical side, the very recent code refactoring towards a completely object-oriented software package to improve maintainability, flexibility and code development will be discussed. Finally, we present ongoing work and future plans regarding higher-order corrections, more general model support including the setup to search for new physics in vector boson scattering at the LHC, as well as several lines of performance improvements.

  15. Modern particle physics event generation with WHIZARD

    Reuter, J.; Bach, F.; Chokoufe, B. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Kilian, W.; Sekulla, M. [Siegen Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Physics; Ohl, T. [Wuerzburg Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Physics and Astronomy; Weiss, C. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Siegen Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Physics

    2014-10-16

    We describe the multi-purpose Monte-Carlo event generator WHIZARD for the simulation of high-energy particle physics experiments. Besides the presentation of the general features of the program like SM physics, BSM physics, and QCD effects, special emphasis is given to the support of the most accurate simulation of the collider environments at hadron colliders and especially at future linear lepton colliders. On the more technical side, the very recent code refactoring towards a completely object-oriented software package to improve maintainability, flexibility and code development are discussed. Finally, we present ongoing work and future plans regarding higher-order corrections, more general model support including the setup to search for new physics in vector boson scattering at the LHC, as well as several lines of performance improvements.

  16. Modern particle physics event generation with WHIZARD

    We describe the multi-purpose Monte-Carlo event generator WHIZARD for the simulation of high-energy particle physics experiments. Besides the presentation of the general features of the program like SM physics, BSM physics, and QCD effects, special emphasis is given to the support of the most accurate simulation of the collider environments at hadron colliders and especially at future linear lepton colliders. On the more technical side, the very recent code refactoring towards a completely object-oriented software package to improve maintainability, flexibility and code development are discussed. Finally, we present ongoing work and future plans regarding higher-order corrections, more general model support including the setup to search for new physics in vector boson scattering at the LHC, as well as several lines of performance improvements.

  17. Local Tsunami Hazard In The Marquesas Islands (french Polynesia) : Numerical Modeling of The 1999 Fatu Hiva Landslide and Tsunami

    Hébert, H.; Schindelé, F.; Heinrich, P.; Piatanesi, A.; Okal, E. A.

    In French Polynesia, the Marquesas Islands are particularly prone to amplification of tsunamis generated at the Pacific Rim, due to relatively mild submarine slopes and to large open bays not protected by any coral reef. These islands are also threatened by local tsunamis, as shown by the recent 1999 event on Fatu Hiva. On September 13, 1999, Omoa Bay was struck by 2 to 5 m high water waves: several buildings, among them the school, were flooded and destroyed but no lives were lost. Observations gath- ered during a post-event survey revealed the recent collapse into the sea of a 300x300 m, at least 20-m thick, cliff located 5 km southeast of Omoa. This cliff failure most certainly triggered the tsunami waves since the cliff was reported intact 45 min earlier. We simulate the tsunami generation due to a subaerial landslide, using a finite- difference model assimilating the landslide to a flow of granular material. Numerical modeling shows that a 0.0024-km3 landslide located in the presumed source area ac- counts well for the tsunami waves reported in Omoa Bay. We show that the striking amplification observed in Omoa Bay is related to the trapping of waves due to the shallow submarine shelf surrounding the island. These results stress the local tsunami hazard that should be taken into account in the natural hazard assessment and mitiga- tion of the area, where historical cliff collapses can be observed and should happen again.

  18. Tsunami Hazard Assessment in New Zealand Ports and Harbors

    Borrero, J. C.; Wotherspoon, L.; Power, W. L.; Goring, D.; Barberopoulou, A.; Melville, B.; Shamseldin, A.

    2012-12-01

    The New Zealand Ministry of Science and Innovation (MSI) has sponsored a 3-year collaborative project involving industry, government and university research groups to better assess and prepare for tsunami hazards in New Zealand ports and harbors. As an island nation, New Zealand is highly dependent on its maritime infrastructure for commercial and recreational interests. The recent tsunamis of 2009, 2010 and 2011 (Samoa, Chile and Japan) highlighted the vulnerability of New Zealand's marine infrastructure to strong currents generated by such far field events. These events also illustrated the extended duration of the effects from such tsunamis, with some of the strongest currents and highest water levels occurring many hours, if not days after the tsunami first arrival. In addition, New Zealand also sits astride the Tonga-Kermadec subduction zone, which given the events of recent years, cannot be underestimated as a major near field hazard. This presentation will discuss the modeling and research strategy that will be used to mitigate tsunami hazards in New Zealand ports and harbors. This will include a detailed time-series analysis (including Fourier and discrete Wavelet techniques) of water levels recorded throughout New Zealand form recent tsunami events (2009 Samoa, 2010 Chile and 2011 Japan). The information learned from these studies will guide detailed numerical modeling of tsunami induced currents at key New Zealand ports. The model results will then be used to guide a structural analysis of the relevant port structures in terms of hydrodynamic loads as well as mooring and impact loads due to vessel and/or debris. Ultimately the project will lead to an improvement in New Zealand's tsunami response plans by providing a decision making flow chart, targeted for marine facilities, to be used by emergency management officials during future tsunami events.Tsunami effects at Port Charles, New Zealand: (top) inundation into a neighborhood and (bottom left and right

  19. Scientific Animations for Tsunami Hazard Mitigation: The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center's YouTube Channel

    Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Shiro, B.; Ward, B.

    2013-12-01

    tsunami warning operations, such as those about earthquake magnitudes, how earthquakes are located, where and how often earthquakes occur, and fault rupture length. The second group uses the PTWC-developed tsunami forecast model, RIFT (Wang et al., 2012), to show how various historic tsunamis propagated through the world's oceans. These animations illustrate important concepts about tsunami behavior such as their speed, how they bend around and bounce off of seafloor features, how their wave heights vary from place to place and in time, and how their behavior is strongly influenced by the type of earthquake that generated them. PTWC's YouTube channel also includes an animation that simulates both seismic and tsunami phenomena together as they occurred for the 2011 Japan tsunami including actual sea-level measurements and proper timing for tsunami alert status, thus serving as a video 'time line' for that event and showing the time scales involved in tsunami warning operations. Finally, PTWC's scientists can use their YouTube channel to communicate with their colleagues in the research community by supplementing their peer-reviewed papers with video 'figures' (e.g., Wang et al., 2012).

  20. Historic and ancient tsunamis uncovered on the Jalisco-Colima Pacific coast, the Mexican subduction zone

    Ramírez-Herrera, María Teresa; Bógalo, María Felicidad; Černý, Jan; Goguitchaichvili, Avto; Corona, Néstor; Machain, María Luisa; Edwards, Arturo Carranza; Sosa, Susana

    2016-04-01

    Research on extreme wave events such as tsunamis using the geological record in areas of infrequent and or small magnitude earthquakes can aid in extending the long-term history and recurrence intervals of large events. This information is valuable for risk management and community preparedness in coastal areas. Here we investigate tsunami deposits on the Jalisco coast of Mexico that overlies the subducting Rivera Plate under the North American plate, an area due for a large thrust earthquake and potential tsunami. Here, we apply a full battery of rock-magnetic analyses that also include a detailed AMS study and other typically applied proxies in tsunami deposits research. We present evidence to demonstrate that anomalous sand units with sharp basal contacts at La Manzanilla, Tenacatita Bay, and El Tecuán shore sites on the Jalisco coast may be the products of tsunamis generated by known historical (Ms 8.2 earthquake of 3 June 1932) and other earlier tsunamigenic earthquakes. A sandy unit with a sharp basal contact, flame structures at the base, rip-up clasts at La Manzanilla, and four sand units with sharp basal contact overlying buried soils at El Tecuán, together with other proxies, such as magnetic properties and others, suggest tsunami deposits. 210Pb dating of sediments slightly above the upper sand layer indicate an age A.D. 1935 ± 11 at El Tecuán. Historical accounts of tsunami inundation at both sites provide further evidence that this is most probably the result of the 3 June 1932 tsunami. Hence this study may provide the first evidence of a tsunami triggered by this earthquake and also of three probable predecessors. Further evidence of at least three earlier tsunamis that occurred since the fifteenth century is also evident in the stratigraphy. These events may correspond to events listed in historical archives, namely the 1563, 1816, and/or the 1818 events.

  1. Tsunamis in Cuba?

    Cuba as neo tectonics structure in the southern of the North American plate had three tsunamis. One of them [local] occurred in the Central-Northern region [1931.10.01, Nortecubana fault], the other was a tele tsunami [1755.11.01, in the SW of the Iberian Peninsula] that hit the Bay of Santiago de Cuba, and the third took place at 1867.11.18, by the regional source of Virgin Islands, which produced waves in the Eastern Cuban region. This tsunami originated to the NE of Puerto Rico in 1918.10.11, with another earthquake of equal magnitude and at similar coordinates, produced a tsunami that did not affect Cuba. Information on the influence of regional tsunami in 1946.08.08 of the NE of the Dominican Republic [Matanzas] in Northwestern Cuba [beaches Guanabo-Baracoa] is contrary to expectations with the waves propagation. The local event of 1939.08.15 attributed to Central- Northern Cuba [Cayo Frances with M = 8.1] does not correspond at all with the maximum magnitude of earthquakes in this region and the potential of the Nortecubana fault. Tsunamis attributed to events such as 1766.06.11 and 1932.02.03 in the Santiago de Cuba Bay are not reflected in the original documents from experts and eyewitnesses. Tsunamis from Jamaica have not affected the coasts of Cuba, despite its proximity. There is no influence in Cuba of tsunamigenic sources of the southern and western parts of the Caribbean, or the Gulf of Mexico. Set out the doubts as to the influence of tsunamis from Haiti and Dominican Republic at Guantanamo Bay which is closer to and on the same latitude, and spatial orientation than the counterpart of Santiago de Cuba, that had impact. The number of fatalities by authors in the Caribbean is different and contradictory. (Author) 76 refs.

  2. The Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group: a unique organization promoting earthquake and tsunami resilience on California's North Coast

    Dengler, L.; Henderson, C.; Larkin, D.; Nicolini, T.; Ozaki, V.

    2012-12-01

    The Northern California counties of Del Norte, Humboldt, and Mendocino account for over 30% of California's coastline and is one of the most seismically active areas of the contiguous 48 states. The region is at risk from earthquakes located on- and offshore and from tsunamis generated locally from faults associated with the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) and from distant sources elsewhere in the Pacific. In 1995 the California Geological Survey (CGS) published a scenario for a CSZ earthquake that included both strong ground shaking effects and a tsunami. As a result of the scenario, the Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization of government agencies, tribes, service groups, academia and the private sector, was formed to coordinate and promote earthquake and tsunami hazard awareness and mitigation in the three-county region. The RCTWG and its member agencies projects include education/outreach products and programs, tsunami hazard mapping, signage and siren planning. Since 2008, RCTWG has worked with the California Emergency Management Agency (Cal EMA) in conducting tsunami warning communications tests on the North Coast. In 2007, RCTWG members helped develop and carry out the first tsunami training exercise at FEMA's Emergency Management Institute in Emmitsburg, MD. The RCTWG has facilitated numerous multi-agency, multi-discipline coordinated exercises, and RCTWG county tsunami response plans have been a model for other regions of the state and country. Eight North Coast communities have been recognized as TsunamiReady by the National Weather Service, including the first National Park the first State Park and only tribe in California to be so recognized. Over 500 tsunami hazard zone signs have been posted in the RCTWG region since 2008. Eight assessment surveys from 1993 to 2010 have tracked preparedness actions and personal awareness of earthquake and tsunami hazards in the county and additional surveys have tracked public awareness and tourist

  3. Sensitivity of tsunami wave profiles and inundation simulations to earthquake slip and fault geometry for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    Goda, Katsuichiro

    2014-09-01

    In this study, we develop stochastic random-field slip models for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and conduct a rigorous sensitivity analysis of tsunami hazards with respect to the uncertainty of earthquake slip and fault geometry. Synthetic earthquake slip distributions generated from the modified Mai-Beroza method captured key features of inversion-based source representations of the mega-thrust event, which were calibrated against rich geophysical observations of this event. Using original and synthesised earthquake source models (varied for strike, dip, and slip distributions), tsunami simulations were carried out and the resulting variability in tsunami hazard estimates was investigated. The results highlight significant sensitivity of the tsunami wave profiles and inundation heights to the coastal location and the slip characteristics, and indicate that earthquake slip characteristics are a major source of uncertainty in predicting tsunami risks due to future mega-thrust events.

  4. Did the Mentawai 2010 earthquake produce an ionospheric tsunami that would have helped identify it as a rare tsunami earthquake?

    Manta, Fabio; Hill, Emma M.; Occhipinti, Giovanni; Feng, Lujia; Taisne, Benoit

    2016-04-01

    On October 25th 2010, an earthquake of Mw 7.8 was generated by rupture of the shallow portion of the Sunda megathrust seaward of the Mentawai islands, Sumatra, Indonesia. The maximum tsunami run-up was ~16 m (Hill et al., 2012) along the southwestern coasts of the Pagai Islands; the tsunami claimed >400 lives. Previously, on April 2010, a similar magnitude earthquake (also Mw 7.8) occurred near the Banyak Islands, offshore northern Sumatra. This event, however, did not generate a tsunami and caused only minor damages. The main difference between these two events is related to the location of the rupture on the megathrust: for the 2010 Banyaks event it was too deep, and located under the islands, to generate significant uplift of the seafloor; on the other hand, the 2010 Mentawai event ruptured a very shallow portion of the megathrust and resulted in large uplifts of the seafloor. The Mentawai event generated only mild, long-period seismic shaking, and (due to its distance) from the stations, relatively small GPS displacements, and its moderate magnitude meant that it was not immediately identified being capable of generating an outsize tsunami. Did these two events induce gravity waves in the ionosphere that would have been useful to identify the Mentawai event as a tsunami earthquake? In this work, we analyzed the ionospheric responses to both events to look for the presence and magnitude of induced travel ionosphere disturbances (TIDs) in the ionosphere total electron content (TEC). Our results show that the Mentawai earthquake induced waves in the ionosphere that start ~8 minutes after the mainshock and propagate with the velocity of acoustic waves (~1 km/sec). Contrarily, the Banyaks earthquake did not produce any recognizable signature in the ionospheric TEC. Our results suggest that the important differences in the style of the two earthquakes can be detected by monitoring variations in the ionospheric TEC.

  5. First applications of the HIPSE event generator

    The predictions of an event generator, HIPSE (Heavy-Ion Phase-Space Exploration), dedicated to the description of nuclear collisions in the intermediate energy range, are compared with experimental data collected by the INDRA and INDRA-ALADIN collaborations. Special emphasis is put on the kinematical characteristics of fragments and light particles at all impact parameters for the system Xe+Sn between 25 and 80 MeV/u. Considering the kinematical characteristics of the fragments, we have shown that the collective motion finds its origin both in the intrinsic motion of the nucleon and in the relative momentum between the two partners of the reaction suggesting a fragmentation process with a strong memory of the entrance channel. Moreover, the model gives information on the phase space explored during the collision as for example pre-equilibrium emission. It also allows a direct access of the partition at freeze-out (in terms of excitation energy, angular momentum, impact parameter...) before secondary decay

  6. Tsunamis of the northeast Indian Ocean with a particular focus on the Bay of Bengal region—A synthesis and review

    Alam, Edris; Dominey-Howes, Dale; Chagué-Goff, Catherine; Goff, James

    2012-08-01

    The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami (2004 IOT) challenged assumptions about the level of regional hazard. Significantly, there has been some debate about the hypothesis that the northern Bay of Bengal may be capable of generating large tsunamis similar to the 2004 IOT. To test this hypothesis, we documented historical and palaeotsunamis in the northeast Indian Ocean. Using multiple sources, we identified 135 purported tsunamis. After completing a process of validity assessment, we categorised 31 definite tsunamis, 27 probable tsunamis, 51 doubtful tsunamis and 20 events that only caused a seiche or disturbance in an inland river. Six of the purported events were identified as either cyclones or earthquakes without any associated tsunamis. Using the reported list of 135 events, we identified different tsunamigenic regions and explored the temporal distribution of past events, with the oldest event dated to around 38,000BC (although the dated material is most likely reworked and this was probably a Holocene event). The second oldest event dated to 3000-2000BC. Historical records indicate that only one definite tsunami, occurring in AD1762, was generated in the northern Bay of Bengal. We encountered a number of significant challenges in reviewing and analysing data contained within the documents and sources we consulted. Statistical analysis of tsunami data from AD1710 to AD2010 suggests that the occurrence of a tsunami affecting the coasts of Bangladesh and Myanmar is 0.99% in any given year, and 63% in a century. We recognise that this incomplete tsunami dataset limits the capacity to fully quantify the hazard. As such, we recommend further 'deep' archival research coupled with regional palaeotsunami studies to gain a more sophisticated understanding of the hazard.

  7. A Stateful Approach to Generate Synthetic Events from Kernel Traces

    Naser Ezzati-Jivan; Michel R. Dagenais

    2012-01-01

    We propose a generic synthetic event generator from kernel trace events. The proposed method makes use of patterns of system states and environment-independent semantic events rather than platform-specific raw events. This method can be applied to different kernel and user level trace formats. We use a state model to store intermediate states and events. This stateful method supports partial trace abstraction and enables users to seek and navigate through the trace events and to abstract out ...

  8. Tsunami effects at Korean Nuclear Power Plant Sites by Plate Boundary Earthquakes

    Jin, Sobeom; Hyun, Seung Gyu; Bae, Jae Seok; Kim, Gun Hyeong; Yoon, Sung Bum

    2015-04-01

    Great earthquakes have occurred at the Nankai Trough due to the subduction of the Philippine Sea plate beneath Honshu, Japan. The 1707 Hoei tsunami associated with the Mw 8.7 earthquake, in particular, was the largest event generated in this area. The Nankai Trough is one of the most earthquake-prone area near Japan. And the tsunami affected to Korea according to a Korean historic literature. In this study, new hypothetical plate boundary earthquakes (Mw 9.6) ruptured simultaneously from the Nankai Trough to the Ryukyu Trench (NTRT) are proposed and applied to evaluate the tsunami effects at the Nuclear Power Plant Sites in Korea. In order to make reasonable tsunami sources the asperity model is adapted. The numerical model using the modified leap-frog finite difference scheme is employed to simulate the propagation of tsunami generated at NTRT. This numerical model considering the dispersion effect and inundation of tsunami is then employed to estimate the maximum tsunami heights. Predicted results will be used to make the measures against unexpected tsunami attacks.

  9. TSUNAMI CATALOG AND VULNERABILITY OF MARTINIQUE (LESSER ANTILLES, FRANCE

    Roger, J.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In addition to meteorological hazards (hurricanes, heavy rainfalls, long-period swells, etc., the Caribbean Islands are vulnerable to geological hazards such as earthquakes, landslides and volcanic eruptions caused by the complex tectonic activity and interactions in the region. Such events have generated frequently local or regional tsunamis, which often have affected the island of Martinique in the French West Indies. Over the past centuries, the island has been struck by destructive waves associated with local or regional events - such as those associated with the eruption of the Saint-Vincent volcano in 1902 and by tsunamis of distant origin as that generated by the 1755 Lisbon earthquake.The present study includes a classification of tsunamis that have affected Martinique since its discovery in 1502. It is based on international tsunami catalogs, historical accounts, and previous scientific studies and identifies tsunamigenic areas that could potentially generate destructive waves that could impact specific coastal areas of Martinique Island. The potential threat from tsunamis has been greatly increasing because of rapid urban expansion of coastal areas and development of tourism on the island.

  10. Design and Implementation of a C++ Software Package to scan for and parse Tsunami Messages issued by the Tsunami Warning Centers for Operational use at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center

    Sardina, V.

    2012-12-01

    The US Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) have traditionally generated their tsunami message products primarily as blocks of text then tagged with headers that identify them on each particular communications' (comms) circuit. Each warning center has a primary area of responsibility (AOR) within which it has an authoritative role regarding parameters such as earthquake location and magnitude. This means that when a major tsunamigenic event occurs the other warning centers need to quickly access the earthquake parameters issued by the authoritative warning center before issuing their message products intended for customers in their own AOR. Thus, within the operational context of the TWCs the scientists on duty have an operational need to access the information contained in the message products issued by other warning centers as quickly as possible. As a solution to this operational problem we designed and implemented a C++ software package that allows scanning for and parsing the entire suite of tsunami message products issued by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC), the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC), and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The scanning and parsing classes composing the resulting C++ software package allow parsing both non-official message products(observatory messages) routinely issued by the TWCs, and all official tsunami message products such as tsunami advisories, watches, and warnings. This software package currently allows scientists on duty at the PTWC to automatically retrieve the parameters contained in tsunami messages issued by WCATWC, JMA, or PTWC itself. Extension of the capabilities of the classes composing the software package would make it possible to generate XML and CAP compliant versions of the TWCs' message products until new messaging software natively adds this capabilities. Customers who receive the TWCs' tsunami message products could also use the package to automatically retrieve information from

  11. Tsunami Impacts in River Environments

    Tolkova, E.; Tanaka, H.; Roh, M.

    2014-12-01

    The 2010 Chilean and the 2011 Tohoku tsunami events demonstrated the tsunami's ability to penetrate much farther along rivers than the ground inundation. At the same time, while tsunami impacts to the coastal areas have been subject to countless studies, little is known about tsunami propagation in rivers. Here we examine the field data and conduct numerical simulations to gain better understanding of the tsunami impacts in rivers.The evidence which motivated our study is comprised of water level measurements of the aforementioned tsunamis in multiple rivers in Japan, and the 2011 Tohoku and some other tsunamis in the Columbia River in the US. When the available tsunami observations in these very different rivers are brought together, they display remarkably similar patterns not observed on the open coast. Two phenomena were discovered in the field data. First, the phase of the river tide determines the tsunami penetration distance in a very specific way common to all rivers. Tsunami wave progressively disappears on receding tide, whereas high tide greatly facilitates the tsunami intrusion, as seen in the Figure. Second, a strong near-field tsunami causes substantial and prolonged water accumulation in lower river reaches. As the 2011 tsunami intruded rivers in Japan, the water level along rivers rose 1-2 m and stayed high for many hours, with the maximum rise occurring several km from the river mouth. The rise in the water level at some upstream gaging stations even exceeded the tsunami amplitude there.Using the numerical experiments, we attempt to identify the physics behind these effects. We will demonstrate that the nonlinear interactions among the flow components (tsunami, tide, and riverine flow) are an essential condition governing wave dynamics in tidal rivers. Understanding these interactions might explain some previous surprising observations of waves in river environments. Figure: Measurements of the 2010/02/27 tsunami along Naruse and Yoshida rivers

  12. NEAR AND FAR-FIELD EFFECTS OF TSUNAMIS GENERATED BY THE PAROXYSMAL ERUPTIONS, EXPLOSIONS, CALDERA COLLAPSES AND MASSIVE SLOPE FAILURES OF THE KRAKATAU VOLCANO IN INDONESIA ON AUGUST 26-27, 1883

    George Pararas-Carayannis

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The paroxysmal phases of Krakatau's volcanic activity on August 26-27, 1883, included numerous submarine Surtsean (phreatomagmatic eruptions, three sub air Plinian eruptions from the three main craters of Krakatau on Rakata island, followed by a fourth gigantic, sub air, Ultra-Plinian explosion. Landslides, flank failures, subsidences and a multiphase massive caldera collapse of the volcano - beginning near the Perbowetan crater on the northern portion of Rakata and followed by a collapse of the Danan crater - occurred over a period of at least 10 hours. The first of the three violent explosions occurred at 17: 07 Greenwich time (GMT on August 26.The second and third eruptions occurred at 05:30 GMT and at 06:44 GMT on August 27. Each of these events, as well as expanding gases from the submarine phreatomagmatic eruptions, lifted the water surrounding the island into domes or truncated cones that must have been about 100 meters or more in height. The height of the resulting waves attenuated rapidly away from the source because of their short periods and wavelengths. It was the fourth colossal explosion (VEI=6 and the subsequent massive f lank failure and caldera collapse of two thirds of Rakata Island, at 10:02 a.m., on August 27 that generated the most formidable of the destructive tsunami waves. A smaller fifth explosion, which occurred at 10:52 a.m., must have generated another large water cone and sizable waves. The final collapse of a still standing wall of Krakatau - which occurred several hours later at 16:38, generated additional waves.The near field effects of the main tsunami along the Sunda Strait in Western Java and Southern Sumatra, were devastating. Within an hour after the fourth explosion/caldera collapse, waves reaching heights of up to 37 m (120 feet destroyed 295 towns and villages and drowned a total of 36,417 people. Because of their short period and wavelength, the wave heights attenuated rapidly with distance away from the

  13. Use of a Pre-Computed Data Base of Tsunami Simulations for Rapid Estimation of Tsunami Amplitude: Application to the Effective Tsunami Warning of the Great Tsunami of 11 March 2011 IN French Polynesia

    Reymond, D.; Hebert, H.; Okal, E.

    2011-12-01

    We developed a method giving a rapid and accurate estimation of the tsunami amplitude based on a pre-computed database of numerical simulations; this methodology has been applied in real-time in an operational context during the March 2011 Honshu tsunami alert in French Polynesia. For this purpose we constructed a pre-computed database of numerical simulations of tsunamis for 260 scenarios, involving 20 source regions distributed in the main dangerous circum Pacific subduction zones. For each region, we consider 3 types of generic sources defined by their seismic moment and their sources dimensions: MEGA (corresponding to a scalar moment Mo of 1023 N.m), BIG (Mo = 1022 N.m) and AVERAGE (Mo = 1021 N.m). All the pre-computed scenarios give the maximum height of the sea surface in deep ocean with a time step of 1 hour. The database also includes all the synthetic waveforms (14 820) at 57 virtual receivers, including all existing DART buoys, thus allowing comparisons between calculated and observed data. The latter can help to detect abnormal earthquakes (e.g., "tsunami earthquakes", generating a larger tsunami than expected, or conversely, a "snappy" earthquake generating a deficient tsunami. The distribution of tsunami heights along a coastline is then calculated from the deep ocean sea surface using Green's law and stopping the computation at a depth of 5 m. A modified formulation of Green's law has been introduced to take into account large amplification effects of some bays in the Marquesas Islands. This method gives good results in agreement with the measures and observations made during the post tsunami field surveys of the events of Chile February 2010 and Japan March 2011

  14. Tsunami Research driven by Survivor Observations: Sumatra 2004, Tohoku 2011 and the Lituya Bay Landslide (Plinius Medal Lecture)

    Fritz, Hermann M.

    2014-05-01

    on inundation and outflow flow velocities. Tsunamis generated by landslides and volcanic island collapses account for some of the most catastrophic events. On July 10, 1958, an earthquake Mw 8.3 along the Fairweather fault triggered a major subaerial landslide into Gilbert Inlet at the head of Lituya Bay on the south coast of Alaska. The landslide impacted the water at high speed generating a giant tsunami and the highest wave runup in recorded history. This event was observed by eyewitnesses on board the sole surviving fishing boat, which managed to ride the tsunami. The mega-tsunami runup to an elevation of 524 m caused total forest destruction and erosion down to bedrock on a spur ridge in direct prolongation of the slide axis. A cross-section of Gilbert Inlet was rebuilt in a two dimensional physical laboratory model. Particle image velocimetry (PIV) provided instantaneous velocity vector fields of decisive initial phase with landslide impact and wave generation as well as the runup on the headland. Three dimensional source and runup scenarios based on real world events are physically modeled in the NEES tsunami wave basin (TWB) at Oregon State University (OSU). The measured landslide and tsunami data serve to validate and advance numerical landslide tsunami models. This lecture encompasses multi-hazard aspects and implications of recent tsunami and cyclonic events around the world such as the November 2013 Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) in the Philippines.

  15. Automated Testing with Targeted Event Sequence Generation

    Jensen, Casper Svenning; Prasad, Mukul R.; Møller, Anders

    2013-01-01

    Automated software testing aims to detect errors by producing test inputs that cover as much of the application source code as possible. Applications for mobile devices are typically event-driven, which raises the challenge of automatically producing event sequences that result in high coverage....... Some existing approaches use random or model-based testing that largely treats the application as a black box. Other approaches use symbolic execution, either starting from the entry points of the applications or on specific event sequences. A common limitation of the existing approaches is that they...

  16. ASTARTE: Assessment Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe

    Baptista, M. A.; Yalciner, A. C.; Canals, M.

    2014-12-01

    Tsunamis are low frequency but high impact natural disasters. In 2004, the Boxing Day tsunami killed hundreds of thousands of people from many nations along the coastlines of the Indian Ocean. Tsunami run-up exceeded 35 m. Seven years later, and in spite of some of the best warning technologies and levels of preparedness in the world, the Tohoku-Oki tsunami in Japan dramatically showed the limitations of scientific knowledge on tsunami sources, coastal impacts and mitigation measures. The experience from Japan raised serious questions on how to improve the resilience of coastal communities, to upgrade the performance of coastal defenses, to adopt a better risk management, and also on the strategies and priorities for the reconstruction of damaged coastal areas. Societal resilience requires the reinforcement of capabilities to manage and reduce risk at national and local scales.ASTARTE (Assessment STrategy And Risk for Tsunami in Europe), a 36-month FP7 project, aims to develop a comprehensive strategy to mitigate tsunami impact in this region. To achieve this goal, an interdisciplinary consortium has been assembled. It includes all CTWPs of NEAM and expert institutions across Europe and worldwide. ASTARTE will improve i) basic knowledge of tsunami generation and recurrence going beyond simple catalogues, with novel empirical data and new statistical analyses for assessing long-term recurrence and hazards of large events in sensitive areas of NEAM, ii) numerical techniques for tsunami simulation, with focus on real-time codes and novel statistical emulation approaches, and iii) methods for assessment of hazard, vulnerability, and risk. ASTARTE will also provide i) guidelines for tsunami Eurocodes, ii) better tools for forecast and warning for CTWPs and NTWCs, and iii) guidelines for decision makers to increase sustainability and resilience of coastal communities. In summary, ASTARTE will develop basic scientific and technical elements allowing for a significant

  17. A tsunami early warning system and tsunami source propagation

    Hirata, K.

    2008-12-01

    The present-day's tsunami early warning systems (TEWSs) assume that a tsunami source is created instantaneously over the whole source area. However, finite rupture propagation speeds reasonably affect tsunami generation and propagation. Travel times of the first tsunami waves generated from rupture propagation fault models have to arrive later at some regions than those from instantaneous fault models but do not arrive faster everywhere [e.g., Neetsu et al., 2005]. On the other hand, the effect of earthquake rupture propagation on tsunami amplitude has scarcely investigated based on real bathymetry, although it had studied under flat ocean assumption [Aida, 1969; Yamashita and Sato, 1974]. We investigated it for regional tsunamis (travel distance between 5deg and 30 deg) by using real bathymetry in terms of numerical simulation. The grid size is 3 minutes of arc, interpolated from ETOPO2 [Smith and Sandwell, 1997]. A constant amount of slip was given on each subfault. Other subfault parameters are the same as Hirata et al.[2006]. Effect on the first upward wave amplitudes of offshore tsunamis is summarized as follows; (1) The slower the rupture velocity, the larger the increasing rate of the tsunami wave amplitude. For instance, in the offshore of the east coast of Sri Lanka, the 1st tsunami amplitude increases 10% at the rupture velocity of 3.5 km/sec, 14 % at 2.5 km/sec, 23% at 1.5 km/sec, and 38% at 1.0 km/sec in the case of 500km-long fault. This indicates that the rupture propagation effect on regional tsunami amplitude is large in the cases of slow earthquakes. (2) Increasing (or decreasing) rate in tsunami amplitude due to the rupture propagation is not necessarily larger in longer fault than shorter fault. In other words, even in the case of a short fault, say a few hundred kilometers, the effect of the rupture propagation on tsunami amplitude may not be neglected. This is because the increasing (or decreasing) rate in tsunami amplitude is related to

  18. Numerical modeling of the 1964 Alaska tsunami in western Passage Canal and Whittier, Alaska

    D. J. Nicolsky

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A numerical model of the wave dynamics in Passage Canal, Alaska during the Mw 9.2 megathrust earthquake is presented. During the earthquake, several types of waves were identified at the city of Whittier, located at the head of Passage Canal. The first wave is thought to have been a seiche, while the other two waves were probably triggered by submarine landslides. We model the seiche wave, landslide-generated tsunami, and tectonic tsunami in Passage Canal and compute inundation by each type of wave during the 1964 event. Modeled results are compared with eyewitness reports and an observed inundation line. Results of the numerical experiments let us identify where the submarine landslides might have occurred during the 1964 event. We identify regions at the head and along the northern shore of Passage Canal, where landslides triggered a wave that caused most of the damage in Whittier. An explanation of the fact that the 1964 tectonic tsunami in Whittier was unnoticed is presented as well. The simulated inundation by the seiche, landslide-generated tsunami, and tectonic tsunami can help to mitigate tsunami hazards and prepare Whittier for a potential tsunami.

  19. Generating tsunami risk knowledge at community level as a base for planning and implementation of risk reduction strategies

    Wegscheider, S.; Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Mück, M.; Strunz, G.; Riedlinger, T.; Muhari, A.; Anwar, H. Z.

    2011-02-01

    More than 4 million Indonesians live in tsunami-prone areas along the southern and western coasts of Sumatra, Java and Bali. Although a Tsunami Early Warning Center in Jakarta now exists, installed after the devastating 2004 tsunami, it is essential to develop tsunami risk knowledge within the exposed communities as a basis for tsunami disaster management. These communities need to implement risk reduction strategies to mitigate potential consequences. The major aims of this paper are to present a risk assessment methodology which (1) identifies areas of high tsunami risk in terms of potential loss of life, (2) bridges the gaps between research and practical application, and (3) can be implemented at community level. High risk areas have a great need for action to improve people's response capabilities towards a disaster, thus reducing the risk. The methodology developed here is based on a GIS approach and combines hazard probability, hazard intensity, population density and people's response capability to assess the risk. Within the framework of the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) project, the methodology was applied to three pilot areas, one of which is southern Bali. Bali's tourism is concentrated for a great part in the communities of Kuta, Legian and Seminyak. Here alone, about 20 000 people live in high and very high tsunami risk areas. The development of risk reduction strategies is therefore of significant interest. A risk map produced for the study area in Bali can be used for local planning activities and the development of risk reduction strategies.

  20. Deep-Ocean Measurements of Tsunami Waves

    Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Eblé, Marie C.

    2015-12-01

    Deep-ocean tsunami measurements play a major role in understanding the physics of tsunami wave generation and propagation, and in improving the effectiveness of tsunami warning systems. This paper provides an overview of the history of tsunami recording in the open ocean from the earliest days, approximately 50 years ago, to the present day. Modern tsunami monitoring systems such as the self-contained Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis and innovative cabled sensing networks, including, but not limited to, the Japanese bottom cable projects and the NEPTUNE-Canada geophysical bottom observatory, are highlighted. The specific peculiarities of seafloor longwave observations in the deep ocean are discussed and compared with observations recorded in coastal regions. Tsunami detection in bottom pressure observations is exemplified through analysis of distant (22,000 km from the source) records of the 2004 Sumatra tsunami in the northeastern Pacific.

  1. SAFRR tsunami scenario: impacts on California ecosystems, species, marine natural resources, and fisheries: Chapter G in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Brosnan, Deborah; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick

    2014-01-01

    We evaluate the effects of the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario on California’s ecosystems, species, natural resources, and fisheries. We discuss mitigation and preparedness approaches that can be useful in Tsunami planning. The chapter provides an introduction to the role of ecosystems and natural resources in tsunami events (Section 1). A separate section focuses on specific impacts of the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario on California’s ecosystems and endangered species (Section 2). A section on commercial fisheries and the fishing fleet (Section 3) documents the plausible effects on California’s commercial fishery resources, fishing fleets, and communities. Sections 2 and 3 each include practical preparedness options for communities and suggestions on information needs or research. Our evaluation indicates that many low-lying coastal habitats, including beaches, marshes and sloughs, rivers and waterways connected to the sea, as well as nearshore submarine habitats will be damaged by the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Beach erosion and complex or high volumes of tsunami-generated debris would pose major challenges for ecological communities. Several endangered species and protected areas are at risk. Commercial fisheries and fishing fleets will be affected directly by the tsunami and indirectly by dependencies on infrastructure that is damaged. There is evidence that in some areas intact ecosystems, notably sand dunes, will act as natural defenses against the tsunami waves. However, ecosystems do not provide blanket protection against tsunami surge. The consequences of ecological and natural resource damage are estimated in the millions of dollars. These costs are driven partly by the loss of ecosystem services, as well as cumulative and follow-on impacts where, for example, increased erosion during the tsunami can in turn lead to subsequent damage and loss to coastal properties. Recovery of ecosystems, natural resources and fisheries is likely to be lengthy and expensive

  2. The Dependency of Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment on Magnitude Limits of Seismic Sources in the South China Sea and Adjoining Basins

    Li, Hongwei; Yuan, Ye; Xu, Zhiguo; Wang, Zongchen; Wang, Juncheng; Wang, Peitao; Gao, Yi; Hou, Jingming; Shan, Di

    2016-08-01

    The South China Sea (SCS) and its adjacent small basins including Sulu Sea and Celebes Sea are commonly identified as tsunami-prone region by its historical records on seismicity and tsunamis. However, quantification of tsunami hazard in the SCS region remained an intractable issue due to highly complex tectonic setting and multiple seismic sources within and surrounding this area. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) is performed in the present study to evaluate tsunami hazard in the SCS region based on a brief review on seismological and tsunami records. 5 regional and local potential tsunami sources are tentatively identified, and earthquake catalogs are generated using Monte Carlo simulation following the Tapered Gutenberg-Richter relationship for each zone. Considering a lack of consensus on magnitude upper bound on each seismic source, as well as its critical role in PTHA, the major concern of the present study is to define the upper and lower limits of tsunami hazard in the SCS region comprehensively by adopting different corner magnitudes that could be derived by multiple principles and approaches, including TGR regression of historical catalog, fault-length scaling, tectonic and seismic moment balance, and repetition of historical largest event. The results show that tsunami hazard in the SCS and adjoining basins is subject to large variations when adopting different corner magnitudes, with the upper bounds 2-6 times of the lower. The probabilistic tsunami hazard maps for specified return periods reveal much higher threat from Cotabato Trench and Sulawesi Trench in the Celebes Sea, whereas tsunami hazard received by the coasts of the SCS and Sulu Sea is relatively moderate, yet non-negligible. By combining empirical method with numerical study of historical tsunami events, the present PTHA results are tentatively validated. The correspondence lends confidence to our study. Considering the proximity of major sources to population-laden cities

  3. TSUNAMI HAZARD IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA

    B. Theilen-Willige

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on LANDSAT ETM and Digital Elevation Model (DEM data derived by the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM, 2000 of the coastal areas of Northern Venezuela were investigated in order to detect traces of earlier tsunami events. Digital image processing methods used to enhance LANDSAT ETM imageries and to produce morphometric maps (such as hillshade, slope, minimum and maximum curvature maps based on the SRTM DEM data contribute to the detection of morphologic traces that might be related to catastrophic tsunami events. These maps combined with various geodata such as seismotectonic data in a GIS environment allow the delineation of coastal regions with potential tsunami risk. The LANDSAT ETM imageries merged with digitally processed and enhanced SRTM data clearly indicate areas that might be prone by flooding in case of catastrophic tsunami events.

  4. A standard event class for Monte Carlo generators

    StdHepC++ is a CLHEP Monte Carlo event class library which provides a common interface to Monte Carlo event generators. This work is an extensive redesign of the StdHep Fortran interface to use the full power of object oriented design. A generated event maps naturally onto the Directed Acyclic Graph concept and we have used the HepMC classes to implement this. The full implementation allows the user to combine events to simulate beam pileup and access them transparently as though they were a single event

  5. Development of tsunami-seismic PSA software for nuclear power plants in multi-unit site

    The large tsunami induced by the Great East Japan earthquakes on March 11, 2011 triggered the accidents at the Fukushima Dai-Ichi Nuclear Power Plant. The earthquake caused loss of off-site power and the tsunami failed most of the ultimate heat sink of the seawater pumps and on-site diesel generators and eventually DC batteries, resulting in station blackout (SBO), loss of core cooling and loss of reactor control. Because of insufficient preparedness against such severe accidents, three reactor cores damaged and large amount of radioactivity released to the environment. The primary lessons learned are enhancement of protective measures against severe accidents by external events, especially tsunami-seismic events. This paper describes development of tsunami-seismic PSA methods and sample analysis to gain some of risk insights and directions of PSA technology improvement. (author)

  6. MEVSIM: A Monte Carlo Event Generator for STAR

    Ray, R. L.; Longacre, R. S.

    2000-01-01

    A fast, simple to use Monte Carlo based event generator is presented which is intended to facilitate simulation studies and the development of analysis software for the Solenoidal Tracker at RHIC (Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider) (STAR) experiment at the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL). This new event generator provides a fast, convenient means for producing large numbers of uncorrelated A+A collision events which can be used for a variety of applications in STAR, including quality assur...

  7. National Geophysical Data Center Historical Natural Hazard Event Databases

    Dunbar, P. K.; Stroker, K. J.

    2008-12-01

    After a major event such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami or the 2008 Chengdu earthquake, there is interest in knowing if similar events have occurred in the area in the past and how often they have occurred. The National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) historical natural hazard event databases can provide answers to these types of questions. For example, a search of the tsunami database reveals that over 100 tsunamis have occurred in the Indian Ocean since 416 A.D. Further analysis shows that there has never been such a deadly tsunami anywhere in the world. In fact, the 2004 event accounts for almost half of all the deaths caused by tsunamis in the database. A search of the earthquake database shows that since 193 B.C., China has experienced over 500 significant earthquakes that have caused over 2 million deaths and innumerable dollars in damages. The NGDC global historical tsunami, significant earthquake, and significant volcanic eruption databases include events that range in date from 4350 B.C. to the present. The database includes all tsunami events, regardless of magnitude or intensity; and all earthquakes and volcanic eruptions that either caused deaths, moderate damage, or generated a tsunami. Earthquakes are also included that were assigned either a magnitude >= 7.5 or Modified Mercalli Intensity >= X. The basic data in the historical event databases include the date, time, location of the event, magnitude of the phenomenon (tsunami or earthquake magnitude and/or intensity, or volcanic explosivity index), and socio-economic information such as the total number of deaths, injuries, houses damaged, and dollar damage. The tsunami database includes an additional table with information on the runups (locations where tsunami waves were observed by eyewitnesses, tide gauges, or deep ocean sensors). The volcanic eruptions database includes information on the volcano elevation and type. There are currently over 2000 tsunami source events, 12500 tsunami runup

  8. Generation of deterministic tsunami hazard maps in the Bay of Cadiz, south-west Spain

    Álvarez-Gómez, J. A.; Otero, L.; Olabarrieta, M.; González, M.; Carreño, E.; Baptista, M. A.; Miranda, J. M.; Medina, R.; Lima, V.

    2009-04-01

    The bay of Cádiz is a densely populated and industrialized area, and an important centre of tourism which multiplies its population in the summer months. This bay is situated in the Gulf of Cádiz, the south-west Atlantic margin of the Iberian Peninsula. From a tectonic point of view this area can be defined as a diffuse plate boundary, comprising the eastern edge of the Gloria and Tydeman transforms (where the deformation is mainly concentrated in these shear corridors), the Gorringe Bank, the Horseshoe Abyssal plain, the Portimao and Guadalquivir banks, and the western termination of the arcuated Gibraltar Arc. This deformation zone is the eastern edge of the Azores - Gibraltar seismic zone, being the present day boundary between the Eurasian and African plates. The motion between the plates is mainly convergent in the Gulf of Cádiz, but gradually changes to almost pure transcurrent along the Gloria Fault. The relative motion between the two plates is of the order of 4-5 mm/yr. In order to define the different tsunamigenic zones and to characterize its worst tsunamigenic source we have used seismic, structural and geological data. The numerical model used to simulate the wave propagation and coastal inundation is the C3 (Cantabria, COMCOT and Tsunami-Claw) model. C3 is a hybrid finite difference-finite volume method which balances between efficiency and accuracy. For offshore domain in deep waters the model applies an explicit finite difference scheme (FD), which is computationally fast and accurate in large grids. For near coast domains in coastal areas, it applies a finite volume scheme (VOF). It solves correctly the bore formation and the bore propagation. It is very effective solving the run-up and the run down. A set of five worst case tsunamigenic sources has been used with four different sea levels (minimum tide, most probable low tide, most probable high tide and maximum tide), in order to produce the following thematic maps with the C3 model: maximum

  9. A new approach for tsunami early warning using tsunami observations in a source region

    Tanioka, Y.

    2015-12-01

    After the 2011 devastating Tohoku tsunami, improvement of tsunami early warning system is one of key issues in Japan. Japanese government was decided to install 125 ocean bottom pressure sensors and seismometers with a cable system along the Japan and Kurile trench. Each sensor is separated by 30km. We should develop a new approach for real-time tsunami forecast using those newly available data combined with GNSS data or seismic data. A well-recognized problem to use tsunami data at pressure sensors on the top of tsunami source area is a fact that a large vertical coseismic deformation due to a large earthquake cannot be observed at those sensors. The sensors observe a tsunami wave when it starts to propagate. Because of that problem, GSNN data or seismic data are typically used to estimate the coseismic deformation for the tsunami numerical simulation. In this paper, we develop a new technique, which solve the problem. Our technique uses the observations at pressure sensors on the tsunami source area as an input to compute the tsunami directly. Actual tsunami heights at the sensors on the source area is unknown because the cosismic vertical deformation is unknown. However, we can observe directly the time derivative of tsunami heights at those sensors. Time derivatives of tsunami heights at each point are used as inputs to compute the tsunami height distribution in the calculated area. Then we can numerically compute a tsunami using a traditional finite difference technique from the tsunami height distribution computed. For numerical test, first, we compute the synthetic tsunamis using the fault model with 1 minute grid system. The computed tsunami waveforms at 15 minutes x 15 minutes grid points are used as the observed data for this new technique. Each observed point is separated by 15 minutes, about 30km. The result show that the accuracy of tsunami computation is good enough for tsunami forecast. Tsunami generation with a long duration, such as tsunami

  10. Tsunami Preparedness

    ... Food Safety Highway Safety Landslide Pet Safety Poisoning Power Outage Terrorism Thunderstorm Tornado Tsunami Volcano Water Safety Wildfire ... Facebook Twitter Flickr Youtube Donate Funds Your Donation Impacts Lives ... Disaster Relief Health and Safety Training & Education Lifesaving Blood Get Assistance ...

  11. Direct bed stress measurements under solitary tsunami-type waves and breaking tsunami wave fronts

    JayaKumar, S.; Baldock, T.E.

    , the force measured by the shear plate includes the bed shear stress and the pressure gradient force from the wave. Linear wave theory is often used to estimate (Rankin and Hires, 2000) and eliminate the pressure gradient from the total force so... for selected solitary waves generated in laboratory that are comparable with the theory Parameters Cyclone (shallow) Cyclone (deep) Tsunami-1 (shallow) Tsunami-2 (shallow) Tsunami-1 (deep) Tsunami-2 (deep) Wave height (m) 20 20 1 1 1 1 Wave...

  12. MEVSIM A Monte Carlo Event Generator for STAR

    Ray, R L

    2000-01-01

    A fast, simple to use Monte Carlo based event generator is presented which is intended to facilitate simulation studies and the development of analysis software for the Solenoidal Tracker at RHIC (Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider) (STAR) experiment at the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL). This new event generator provides a fast, convenient means for producing large numbers of uncorrelated A+A collision events which can be used for a variety of applications in STAR, including quality assurance evaluation of event reconstruction software, determination of detector acceptances and tracking efficiencies, physics analysis of event-by-event global variables, studies of strange, rare and exotic particle reconstruction, and so on. The user may select the number of events, the particle types, the multiplicities, the one-body momentum space distributions and the detector acceptance ranges. The various algorithms used in the code and its capabilities are explained. Additional user information is also discussed. The ...

  13. Puerto Rico Tsunami Warning and Mitigation Program-LANTEX 09 Survey

    Diaz, W.; von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.

    2009-12-01

    Tsunami warning, assessment, education, mitigation and preparedness efforts seek to reduce losses related to tsunamis in Puerto Rico (PR). The PR Seismic Network (PRSN) works with governmental agencies and local communities to implement these tsunami hazard risk reduction programs. The Caribbean has a a history of destructive tsunamis such as Virgin Islands (1867), PR (1918) and Dominican Republic (1946). Tsunamis originating near PR are a near-field hazard for as they can reach coastal areas within minutes of a generating event. Sources for regional and tele tsunamis have been identified. To mitigate these risks to communities, the PR Tsunami Warning and Mitigation Program (PRTWMP) was established in 2000 with funding from FEMA, the University of Puerto Rico (UPR) and the PR State Emergency Management Agency (PRSEMA). With the support of NTHMP and TsunamiReady (TR), PR continues to seek to mitigate possible tsunami damages and increase community resilience by helping communities meet the TR guidelines by providing them inundation maps, helping them develop evacuation maps and emergency plans, assisting them with community outreach efforts and conducting evacuation drills. Currently 6 of 44 tsunami threatened communities in PR have been recognized as TsunamiReady. As part of this process, the PRSN, PRSEMA and various communities participated in the LANTEX 2009 tsunami exercise. This exercise took place on April 2, 2009 and was based on a scenario in which an earthquake northeast of PR generates a major tsunami which impacts PR and the USVI and threatens the states along the continental US eastern coast. The municipality of Mayagüez, a TsunamiReady community since 2006, participated in the exercise by activating its Emergency Operations Center , conducting evacuation drills in schools located within its tsunami exposed area, and activating its warning siren. This presentation highlights findings of UPRM social scientists collaborating with the PRTWMP who conducted

  14. Generating tsunami risk knowledge at community level as a base for planning and implementation of risk reduction strategies

    S. Wegscheider

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available More than 4 million Indonesians live in tsunami-prone areas along the southern and western coasts of Sumatra, Java and Bali. Although a Tsunami Early Warning Center in Jakarta now exists, installed after the devastating 2004 tsunami, it is essential to develop tsunami risk knowledge within the exposed communities as a basis for tsunami disaster management. These communities need to implement risk reduction strategies to mitigate potential consequences.

    The major aims of this paper are to present a risk assessment methodology which (1 identifies areas of high tsunami risk in terms of potential loss of life, (2 bridges the gaps between research and practical application, and (3 can be implemented at community level. High risk areas have a great need for action to improve people's response capabilities towards a disaster, thus reducing the risk. The methodology developed here is based on a GIS approach and combines hazard probability, hazard intensity, population density and people's response capability to assess the risk.

    Within the framework of the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System project, the methodology was applied to three pilot areas, one of which is southern Bali. Bali's tourism is concentrated for a great part in the communities of Kuta, Legian and Seminyak. Here alone, about 20 000 people live in high and very high tsunami risk areas. The development of risk reduction strategies is therefore of significant interest. A risk map produced for the study area in Bali can be used for local planning activities and the development of risk reduction strategies.

  15. Evaluation of the Relationship Between Coral Damage and Tsunami Dynamics; Case Study: 2009 Samoa Tsunami

    Dilmen, Derya I.; Titov, Vasily V.; Roe, Gerard H.

    2015-12-01

    On September 29, 2009, an Mw = 8.1 earthquake at 17:48 UTC in Tonga Trench generated a tsunami that caused heavy damage across Samoa, American Samoa, and Tonga islands. Tutuila island, which is located 250 km from the earthquake epicenter, experienced tsunami flooding and strong currents on the north and east coasts, causing 34 fatalities (out of 192 total deaths from this tsunami) and widespread structural and ecological damage. The surrounding coral reefs also suffered heavy damage. The damage was formally evaluated based on detailed surveys before and immediately after the tsunami. This setting thus provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the relationship between tsunami dynamics and coral damage. In this study, estimates of the maximum wave amplitudes and coastal inundation of the tsunami are obtained with the MOST model (T itov and S ynolakis, J. Waterway Port Coast Ocean Eng: pp 171, 1998; T itov and G onzalez, NOAA Tech. Memo. ERL PMEL 112:11, 1997), which is now the operational tsunami forecast tool used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The earthquake source function was constrained using the real-time deep-ocean tsunami data from three DART® (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting for Tsunamis) systems in the far field, and by tide-gauge observations in the near field. We compare the simulated run-up with observations to evaluate the simulation performance. We present an overall synthesis of the tide-gauge data, survey results of the run-up, inundation measurements, and the datasets of coral damage around the island. These data are used to assess the overall accuracy of the model run-up prediction for Tutuila, and to evaluate the model accuracy over the coral reef environment during the tsunami event. Our primary findings are that: (1) MOST-simulated run-up correlates well with observed run-up for this event ( r = 0.8), it tends to underestimated amplitudes over coral reef environment around Tutuila (for 15 of 31 villages, run

  16. A deterministic analysis of tsunami hazard and risk for the southwest coast of Sri Lanka

    Wijetunge, J. J.

    2014-05-01

    This paper describes a multi-scenario, deterministic analysis carried out as a pilot study to evaluate the tsunami hazard and risk distribution in the southwest coast of Sri Lanka. The hazard and risk assessment procedure adopted was also assessed against available field records of the impact of the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004. An evaluation of numerically simulated nearshore tsunami amplitudes corresponding to ‘maximum-credible' scenarios from different subduction segments in the Indian Ocean surrounding Sri Lanka suggests that a seismic event similar to that generated the tsunami in 2004 can still be considered as the ‘worst-case' scenario for the southwest coast. Furthermore, it appears that formation of edge waves trapped by the primary waves diffracting around the southwest significantly influences the nearshore tsunami wave field and is largely responsible for relatively higher tsunami amplitudes in certain stretches of the coastline under study. The extent of inundation from numerical simulations corresponding to the worst-case scenario shows good overall agreement with the points of maximum penetration of inundation from field measurements in the aftermath of the 2004 tsunami. It can also be seen that the inundation distribution is strongly influenced by onshore topography. The present study indicates that the mean depth of inundation could be utilised as a primary parameter to quantify the spatial distribution of the tsunami hazard. The spatial distribution of the risk of the tsunami hazard to the population and residential buildings computed by employing the standard risk formula shows satisfactory correlation with published statistics of the affected population and the damage to residential property during the tsunami in 2004.

  17. Numerical simulation of the Tohoku-oki tsunami and implications for the tsunami sedimentation in the offshore, nearshore and onshore of Sendai Bay

    Sugawara, D.; Goto, K.; Imamura, F.

    2012-12-01

    The 11th March 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake tsunami struck the Pacific coast of northeast Japan, and reached maximum run-up of 40 m at the rocky ria coast and maximum inundation distance around 4-5 km in the flat coastal plains, causing more than 19,000 dead and missing, and massive impacts on the societies. The tsunami heights have been investigated at more than 5,000 locations. Numbers of tsunami source models have been proposed during these 17 months, based on the geodetic, seismic and tide records, as well as the measured tsunami heights. Extensive field surveys have been carried out in the coastal plains of Sendai Bay, where the sandy beach ridges are developed along the coastline, and a lot of new findings on sedimentary feature of tsunami deposits have been obtained. For example, previous researches reported that the sandy tsunami deposits were found to be distributed only 60% of the inundation distance, in case the tsunami invaded more than 3 km from the coastline. Small contribution of marine materials to onshore tsunami deposits was inferred from the micropaleontological and geochemical analysis. These findings will be applied to develop the framework for deposit-based estimation of paleotsunami magnitude and to establish the identification criteria of paleotsunami deposit. In this regard, increase of our understanding of relationship between tsunami hydrodynamics and sedimentation is essential to further advance of tsunami researches. Numerical simulations are a powerful tool to investigate the generation, propagation and inundation process of tsunamis, and to analyze its relevance to sediment transport and deposition. The simulations provide temporal and spatial variation of flow depths and speeds. In case of the Tohoku-oki tsunami, numbers of observational data and video footages are applicable for validation of the simulated results. In this presentation, the tsunami sedimentation by the Tohoku-oki event will be discussed from the viewpoint of numerical

  18. Introduction to "Tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean: 2011-2012"

    Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Borrero, Jose C.; Fritz, Hermann M.

    2014-12-01

    With this volume of the Pure and Applied Geophysics (PAGEOPH) topical issue "Tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean: 2011-2012", we are pleased to present 21 new papers discussing tsunami events occurring in this two-year span. Owing to the profound impact resulting from the unique crossover of a natural and nuclear disaster, research into the 11 March 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake and tsunami continues; here we present 12 papers related to this event. Three papers report on detailed field survey results and updated analyses of the wave dynamics based on these surveys. Two papers explore the effects of the Tohoku tsunami on the coast of Russia. Three papers discuss the tsunami source mechanism, and four papers deal with tsunami hydrodynamics in the far field or over the wider Pacific basin. In addition, a series of five papers presents studies of four new tsunami and earthquake events occurring over this time period. This includes tsunamis in El Salvador, the Philippines, Japan and the west coast of British Columbia, Canada. Finally, we present four new papers on tsunami science, including discussions on tsunami event duration, tsunami wave amplitude, tsunami energy and tsunami recurrence.

  19. A Tsunami PSA for Nuclear Power Plants in Korea

    For the evaluation of safety of NPP caused by Tsunami event, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method was applied in this study. At first, an empirical tsunami hazard analysis performed for an evaluation of tsunami return period. A procedure for tsunami fragility methodology was established, and target equipment and structures for investigation of Tsunami Hazard assessment were selected. A several fragility calculations were performed for equipment in Nuclear Power Plant and finally accident scenario of tsunami event in NPP was presented. Finally, a system analysis performed in the case of tsunami event for an evaluation of a CDF of Ulchin 56 NPP site. For the evaluation of safety of NPP caused by Tsunami event, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method was applied. A procedure for tsunami fragility methodology was established, and target equipment and structures for investigation of Tsunami Hazard assessment were selected. A several fragility calculations were performed for equipment in Nuclear Power Plant and finally accident scenario of tsunami event in NPP was presented. As a result, in the case of tsunami event, functional failure is mostly governed total failure probability of facilities in NPP site

  20. February 27, 2010 Chilean Tsunami in Pacific and its Arrival to North East Asia

    Zaytsev, Andrey; Pelinovsky, EfiM.; Yalciner, Ahmet C.; Ozer, Ceren; Chernov, Anton; Kostenko, Irina; Shevchenko, Georgy

    2010-05-01

    The outskirts of the fault plane broken by the strong earthquake on February 27, 2010 in Chili with a magnitude 8.8 at the 35km depth of 35.909°S, 72.733°W coordinates generated a moderate size tsunami. The initial amplitude of the tsunami source is not so high because of the major area of the plane was at land. The tsunami waves propagated far distances in South and North directions to East Asia and Wet America coasts. The waves are also recorded by several gauges in Pacific during its propagation and arrival to coastal areas. The recorded and observed amplitudes of tsunami waves are important for the potential effects with the threatening amplitudes. The event also showed that a moderate size tsunami can be effective even if it propagates far distances in any ocean or a marginal sea. The far east coasts of Russia at North East Asia (Sakhalin, Kuriles, Kamchatka) are one of the important source (i.e. November 15, 2006, Kuril Island Tsunami) and target (i.e. February, 27, 2010 Chilean tsunami) areas of the Pacific tsunamis. Many efforts have been spent for establishment of the monitoring system and assessment of tsunamis and development of the mitigation strategies against tsunamis and other hazards in the region. Development of the computer technologies provided the advances in data collection, transfer, and processing. Furthermore it also contributed new developments in computational tools and made the computer modeling to be an efficient tool in tsunami warning systems. In this study the tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE Nested version is used. NAMI-DANCE solves Nonlinear form of Long Wave (Shallow water) equations (with or without dispersion) using finite difference model in nested grid domains from the source to target areas in multiprocessor hardware environment. It is applied to 2010 Chilean tsunami and its propagation and coastal behavior at far distances near Sakhalin, Kuril and Kamchatka coasts. The main tide gauge records used in this study are from

  1. Simulation and event generation in high-energy physics

    A basic introduction to the physics modeling, the event generation and the detector simulation as designed for the upcoming high-energy physics experiments is presented. Requirements on software developments and computing performances are stressed. (author)

  2. Assessment of tsunami hazard for the American Pacific coast from southern Mexico to northern Peru

    Brizuela, B.; Armigliato, A.; Tinti, S.

    2013-06-01

    Central America has been struck by at least 49 tsunamis between 1539 and 1996. As many as 37 of these events occurred at the Pacific Coast, and 31 were generated by earthquakes. Some of the events have been destructive, but despite this, tsunamis are an underrated hazard in Central America: people are not aware that they are at risk and even recent tsunami events have been forgotten. Recent studies, following the destructive tsunami occurred in Nicaragua in 1992, have revealed that Central America is a moderately tsunamigenic zone that is mainly affected by tsunamis triggered by earthquakes, especially at the Pacific coast where the Middle American Trench runs parallel to the coast. In this study, a statistical first and then a deterministic analysis for the Pacific coast of Central America has been carried out. The statistical approach aims to estimate the Gutenberg-Richter coefficients of the main seismic tsunamigenic regions of the area in order to assess the annual rate of occurrence of tsunamigenic earthquakes and their corresponding return period. A deterministic approach is then used to compute the tsunami run-up distribution along the coast corresponding to a given annual rate of occurrence of tsunamigenic earthquakes.

  3. Laboratory investigations of the effects of geologic heterogeneity on groundwater salinization and flush-out times from a tsunami-like event

    Vithanage, M.; Engesgaard, P.; Jensen, K. H.; Illangasekare, T. H.; Obeysekera, J.

    2012-08-01

    This intermediate scale laboratory experimental study was designed to improve the conceptual understanding of aquifer flushing time associated with diffuse saltwater contamination of coastal aquifers due to a tsunami-like event. The motivation comes from field observations made after the tsunami in December, 2004 in South Asia. The focus is on the role and effects of heterogeneity on flushing effectiveness. A scheme that combines experimentation in a 4.8 m long laboratory tank and numerical modeling was used. To demonstrate the effects of geologic heterogeneity, plume migration and flushing times were analyzed in both homogeneous and layered media and under different boundary conditions (ambient flow, saltwater infiltration rate, freshwater recharge). Saltwater and freshwater infiltrations imitate the results of the groundwater salinization from the tsunami and freshening from the monsoon rainfall. The saltwater plume behavior was monitored both through visual observations (digital photography) of the dyed salt water and using measurements taken from several electrical conductivity sensors installed through the tank walls. The variable-density, three dimensional code HST3D was used to simulate the tank experiments and understand the fate and movement of the saltwater plume under field conditions. The results from the tank experiments and modeling demonstrated that macro-scale heterogeneity significantly influenced the migration patterns and flushing times of diffuse saltwater contamination. Ambient flow had a direct influence on total flush-out time, and heterogeneity impacted flush-out times for the top part of the tank and total flush-out times. The presence of a continuous low-permeability layer caused a 40% increase in complete flush-out time due to the slower flow of salt water in the low-permeability layer. When a relatively small opening was introduced in the low-permeability layer, salt water migrated quickly into a higher-permeable layer below causing a

  4. A tsunami PSA methodology and application for NPP site in Korea

    Highlights: ► A methodology of tsunami PSA was developed in this study. ► Tsunami return period was evaluated by empirical method using historical tsunami record and tidal gauge record. ► Procedure of tsunami fragility analysis was established and target equipments and structures for investigation of tsunami fragility assessment were selected. ► A sample fragility calculation was performed for the equipment in Nuclear Power Plant. ► Accident sequence of tsunami event is developed by according to the tsunami run-up and draw down, and tsunami induced core damage frequency (CDF) is determined. - Abstract: A methodology of tsunami PSA was developed in this study. A tsunami PSA consists of tsunami hazard analysis, tsunami fragility analysis and system analysis. In the case of tsunami hazard analysis, evaluation of tsunami return period is a major task. For the evaluation of tsunami return period, numerical analysis and empirical method can be applied. In this study, tsunami return period was evaluated by empirical method using historical tsunami record and tidal gauge record. For the performing a tsunami fragility analysis, procedure of tsunami fragility analysis was established and target equipments and structures for investigation of tsunami fragility assessment were selected. A sample fragility calculation was performed for the equipment in Nuclear Power Plant. In the case of system analysis, accident sequence of tsunami event is developed by according to the tsunami run-up and draw down, and tsunami induced core damage frequency (CDF) is determined. For the application to the real Nuclear Power Plant, the Ulchin 56 NPP which located in east coast of Korean peninsula was selected. Through this study, whole tsunami PSA working procedure was established and example calculation was performed for one of real Nuclear Power Plant in Korea. But for more accurate tsunami PSA result, there are many researches needed for evaluation of hydrodynamic force, effect of

  5. Real-time forecasting of the April 11, 2012 Sumatra tsunami

    Wang, Dailin; Becker, Nathan C.; Walsh, David; Fryer, Gerard J.; Weinstein, Stuart A.; McCreery, Charles S.; and others

    2012-01-01

    The April 11, 2012, magnitude 8.6 earthquake off the northern coast of Sumatra generated a tsunami that was recorded at sea-level stations as far as 4800 km from the epicenter and at four ocean bottom pressure sensors (DARTs) in the Indian Ocean. The governments of India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Maldives issued tsunami warnings for their coastlines. The United States' Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) issued an Indian Ocean-wide Tsunami Watch Bulletin in its role as an Interim Service Provider for the region. Using an experimental real-time tsunami forecast model (RIFT), PTWC produced a series of tsunami forecasts during the event that were based on rapidly derived earthquake parameters, including initial location and Mwp magnitude estimates and the W-phase centroid moment tensor solutions (W-phase CMTs) obtained at PTWC and at the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS). We discuss the real-time forecast methodology and how successive, real-time tsunami forecasts using the latest W-phase CMT solutions improved the accuracy of the forecast.

  6. Test Problems for Coupled Earthquake-Tsunami Simulations

    Behrens, Jörn; Bader, Michael; van Dinther, Ylona; Gabriel, Alice-Agnes; Madden, Elizabeth H.; Rahnema, Kaveh; Ulrich, Thomas; Uphoff, Carsten; Vater, Stefan; Wollherr, Stephanie; van Zelst, Iris

    2016-04-01

    For the project "Advanced Simulation of Coupled Earthquake and Tsunami Events" (ASCETE, funded by the Volkswagen Foundation), a simulation framework for coupled physics-based earthquake rupture generation with tsunami propagation and inundation has been developed. The rupture simulation is performed using an ADER discontinuous Galerkin discretization on an unstructured tetrahedral mesh. It is able to accurately represent complex geometries, is highly parallelized, and works efficiently in high-performance computing environments. An adaptive mesh discretizing the shallow water equations with a Runge-Kutta discontinuous Galerkin (RKDG) scheme subsequently allows for an accurate and efficient representation of the tsunami evolution and inundation at the coast. We aim to validate and understand this new coupled framework between the dynamic earthquake within the earth's crust and the resulting tsunami wave within the ocean using a simplified model setup. The earthquake setup includes a planar, shallowly dipping subduction fault with linear depth-dependent initial stress and strength in a homogeneous elastic medium. Resulting sea floor displacements along an initially planar (and later realistic) bathymetry profile are transferred to the tsunami setup with an initially simple coastal run-up profile. We present preliminary evaluations of the rupture behavior and its interaction with the hydrodynamic wave propagation and coastal inundation. Once validated in this simplified setup, we will constrain the earthquake initial stress and strength conditions from realistic and physically consistent seismo-thermo-mechanical modeling on long timescales.

  7. Trans-Atlantic tsunamis: Simulations of the 1755 Lisbon and of hypothetical Puerto Rico trench earthquake tsunamis

    Barkan, R.; ten Brink, U. S.; Lin, J.

    2008-12-01

    The great Lisbon earthquake of November 1, 1755 with an estimated moment magnitude of 8.5-9.0, was the most destructive earthquake in European history. Run-ups from a trans-oceanic tsunami were reported in the Caribbean, Brazil and Newfoundland, but there were no reports along the U.S. East Coast. Previous attempts to characterize the 1755 Lisbon earthquake source utilized geophysical surveys and modeling of the near-field earthquake intensity and near-field tsunami run-up. Here we attempt to constrain the source parameters using the far-field tsunami effects because trans-oceanic tsunami run-ups are less influenced by near source bathymetry and are unaffected by triggered submarine landslides at the source. Our far- and near-field tsunami simulations based on relative amplitude comparison, limit the earthquake source area to a region located south of Gorringe Bank in the center of Horseshoe Plain. This location contrasts with previously suggested sources such as the Marqués de Pombal and Gulf of Cadiz faults, which are farther to the east. Based on relative wave amplitude and polarity, the earthquake was likely a thrust event on a fault striking about 345 deg. and dipping to the ENE which is almost perpendicular to the trend of Gorringe Bank. Gorringe Bank, the Madeira-Tore Rise (MTR), and the Azores appear to have acted as topographic scatterers for tsunami energy, shielding most of the U.S. East Coast (with the exception of Florida) from the 1755 Lisbon tsunami. By contrast, sources located west of the MTR or in the Gulf of Cadiz could potentially affect the southeastern coast of the U.S. The Azores-Iberia plate boundary west of the MTR is characterized by strike-slip faults, which are less likely to generate tsunamis, but the Gulf of Cadiz may have thrust faults. Simulations of a hypothetical M8.9 tsunamigenic earthquake in the Puerto Rico trench were conducted to investigate its possible effect on coastal Europe. The recorded history of Western Europe extends

  8. Integrating Caribbean Seismic and Tsunami Hazard into Public Policy and Action

    von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.

    2012-12-01

    The Caribbean has a long history of tsunamis and earthquakes. Over the past 500 years, more than 80 tsunamis have been documented in the region by the NOAA National Geophysical Data Center. Almost 90% of all these historical tsunamis have been associated with earthquakes. Just since 1842, 3510 lives have been lost to tsunamis; this is more than in the Northeastern Pacific for the same time period. With a population of almost 160 million and a heavy concentration of residents, tourists, businesses and critical infrastructure along the Caribbean shores (especially in the northern and eastern Caribbean), the risk to lives and livelihoods is greater than ever before. Most of the countries also have a very high exposure to earthquakes. Given the elevated vulnerability, it is imperative that government officials take steps to mitigate the potentially devastating effects of these events. Nevertheless, given the low frequency of high impact earthquakes and tsunamis, in comparison to hurricanes, combined with social and economic considerations, the needed investments are not made and disasters like the 2010 Haiti earthquake occur. In the absence of frequent significant events, an important driving force for public officials to take action, is the dissemination of scientific studies. When papers of this nature have been published and media advisories issued, public officials demonstrate heightened interest in the topic which in turn can lead to increased legislation and funding efforts. This is especially the case if the material can be easily understood by the stakeholders and there is a local contact. In addition, given the close link between earthquakes and tsunamis, in Puerto Rico alone, 50% of the high impact earthquakes have also generated destructive tsunamis, it is very important that earthquake and tsunami hazards studies demonstrate consistency. Traditionally in the region, earthquake and tsunami impacts have been considered independently in the emergency planning

  9. Concept study of radar sensors for near-field tsunami early warning

    Börner, Thomas; Galletti, Michele; Marquart, Nicolas Pascal; Krieger, Gerhard

    2010-01-01

    Off-shore detection of tsunami waves is a critical component of an effective tsunami early warning system (TEWS). Even more critical is the off-shore detection of local tsunamis, namely tsunamis that strike coastal areas within minutes after generation. In this paper we propose new concepts for near-field tsunami early detection, based on innovative and up-to-date microwave remote sensing techniques. We particularly introduce the NESTRAD (NEar-Space Tsunami RADar) concept, which consists of a...

  10. Tsunami generated by a granular collapse down a rough inclined plane

    Viroulet, Sylvain; Kimmoun, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    In this Letter, we experimentally investigate the collapse of initially dry granular media into water and the subsequent impulse waves. We systematically characterize the influence of the slope angle and the granular material on the initial amplitude of the generated leading wave and the evolution of its amplitude during the propagation. The experiments show that whereas the evolution of the leading wave during the propagation is well predicted by a solution of the linearized Korteweg-de Vries equation, the generation of the wave is more complicated to describe. Our results suggest that the internal properties of the granular media and the interplay with the surrounding fluid are important parameters for the generation of waves at low velocity impacts. Moreover, the amplitude of the leading wave reaches a maximum value at large slope angle. The runout distance of the collapse is also shown to be smaller in the presence of water than under totally dry conditions. This study provides a first insight into tsunam...

  11. Evaluation of Indian nuclear coastal sites for tsunami hazard

    The paper presents results of tsunami wave modelling based on different analytical/numerical approaches with shallow water wave theory. The results of in-house finite element code Tsunami Solution(TSUSOL) is highlighted through numerical simulation of Sumatra-2004 and Makran-1945 tsunami events. The TSUSOL code is shown to have special capability of coupled tsunami and acoustic wave simulation, which is an important feature for the early warning system

  12. Presumption of accident progression of Fukushima Dai-ichi and comparison of event sequences among NPSs affected by Tsunami

    In order to contribute to an improvement of accident managements and station blackout countermeasures for NPSs in Japan after the accident of Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Stations (NPSs), Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization (JNES) has analyzed the progress of the accident scenarios and situation of reactor of the unit 1, 2 and 3 of Fukushima Dai-ichi NPS based on the information such as fragmentary plant chronologies, parameters and information disclosed by TEPCO and tried to figure out the rational explanation of behavior of each plant. In addition, JNES has compared and categorized the event sequences by using event tree method based on the event progression of Fukushima Dai-ichi, Fukushima Dai-ni, Tokai Dai-ni and Onagawa NPSs in order to extract important events and key factors from the viewpoint of prevention of core damage events and impact to event progression. (author)

  13. MAIZEGDB.ORG, the Maize Genetics Cooperation and the 2500 MB B73 Genome-Generated Tsunami

    Advances in sequencing technology have made it possible to sequence the 2500 MB B73 maize genome, both cheaply and in a relatively short time. Nearly simultaneously, other sequencing-based data are on the leading edge of a data tsunami: sequenced differences (currently >300,000 SNP for >1000 inbre...

  14. Evolution of tsunami warning systems and products.

    Bernard, Eddie; Titov, Vasily

    2015-10-28

    Each year, about 60 000 people and $4 billion (US$) in assets are exposed to the global tsunami hazard. Accurate and reliable tsunami warning systems have been shown to provide a significant defence for this flooding hazard. However, the evolution of warning systems has been influenced by two processes: deadly tsunamis and available technology. In this paper, we explore the evolution of science and technology used in tsunami warning systems, the evolution of their products using warning technologies, and offer suggestions for a new generation of warning products, aimed at the flooding nature of the hazard, to reduce future tsunami impacts on society. We conclude that coastal communities would be well served by receiving three standardized, accurate, real-time tsunami warning products, namely (i) tsunami energy estimate, (ii) flooding maps and (iii) tsunami-induced harbour current maps to minimize the impact of tsunamis. Such information would arm communities with vital flooding guidance for evacuations and port operations. The advantage of global standardized flooding products delivered in a common format is efficiency and accuracy, which leads to effectiveness in promoting tsunami resilience at the community level. PMID:26392620

  15. Tsunami focusing and leading wave height

    Kanoglu, Utku

    2016-04-01

    Field observations from tsunami events show that sometimes the maximum tsunami amplitude might not occur for the first wave, such as the maximum wave from the 2011 Japan tsunami reaching to Papeete, Tahiti as a fourth wave 72 min later after the first wave. This might mislead local authorities and give a wrong sense of security to the public. Recently, Okal and Synolakis (2016, Geophys. J. Int. 204, 719-735) discussed "the factors contributing to the sequencing of tsunami waves in the far field." They consider two different generation mechanisms through an axial symmetric source -circular plug; one, Le Mehaute and Wang's (1995, World Scientific, 367 pp.) formalism where irritational wave propagation is formulated in the framework of investigating tsunamis generated by underwater explosions and two, Hammack's formulation (1972, Ph.D. Dissertation, Calif. Inst. Tech., 261 pp., Pasadena) which introduces deformation at the ocean bottom and does not represent an immediate deformation of the ocean surface, i.e. time dependent ocean surface deformation. They identify the critical distance for transition from the first wave being largest to the second wave being largest. To verify sequencing for a finite length source, Okal and Synolakis (2016) is then used NOAA's validated and verified real time forecasting numerical model MOST (Titov and Synolakis, 1998, J. Waterw. Port Coast. Ocean Eng., 124, 157-171) through Synolakis et al. (2008, Pure Appl. Geophys. 165, 2197-2228). As a reference, they used the parameters of the 1 April 2014 Iquique, Chile earthquake over real bathymetry, variants of this source (small, big, wide, thin, and long) over a flat bathymetry, and 2010 Chile and 211 Japan tsunamis over both real and flat bathymetries to explore the influence of the fault parameters on sequencing. They identified that sequencing more influenced by the source width rather than the length. We extend Okal and Synolakis (2016)'s analysis to an initial N-wave form (Tadepalli

  16. General-purpose event generators for LHC physics

    Buckley, Andy; /Edinburgh U.; Butterworth, Jonathan; /University Coll. London; Gieseke, Stefan; /Karlsruhe U., ITP; Grellscheid, David; /Durham U., IPPP; Hoche, Stefan; /SLAC; Hoeth, Hendrik; Krauss, Frank; /Durham U., IPPP; Lonnblad, Leif; /Lund U., Dept. Theor. Phys. /CERN; Nurse, Emily; /University Coll. London; Richardson, Peter; /Durham U., IPPP; Schumann, Steffen; /Heidelberg U.; Seymour, Michael H.; /Manchester U.; Sjostrand, Torbjorn; /Lund U., Dept. Theor. Phys.; Skands, Peter; /CERN; Webber, Bryan; /Cambridge U.

    2011-03-03

    We review the physics basis, main features and use of general-purpose Monte Carlo event generators for the simulation of proton-proton collisions at the Large Hadron Collider. Topics included are: the generation of hard-scattering matrix elements for processes of interest, at both leading and next-to-leading QCD perturbative order; their matching to approximate treatments of higher orders based on the showering approximation; the parton and dipole shower formulations; parton distribution functions for event generators; non-perturbative aspects such as soft QCD collisions, the underlying event and diffractive processes; the string and cluster models for hadron formation; the treatment of hadron and tau decays; the inclusion of QED radiation and beyond-Standard-Model processes. We describe the principal features of the Ariadne, Herwig++, Pythia 8 and Sherpa generators, together with the Rivet and Professor validation and tuning tools, and discuss the physics philosophy behind the proper use of these generators and tools. This review is aimed at phenomenologists wishing to understand better how parton-level predictions are translated into hadron-level events as well as experimentalists wanting a deeper insight into the tools available for signal and background simulation at the LHC.

  17. New Tsunami Response, Mitigation, and Recovery Planning "Playbooks" for California (USA) Maritime Communities

    Wilson, R. I.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Eskijian, M.; Dengler, L. A.; Ayca, A.; Keen, A.; Admire, A. R.; Siegel, J.; Johnson, L. A.; Curtis, E.; Hornick, M.

    2015-12-01

    The 2010 Chile and 2011 Japan tsunamis both struck the California coast offering valuable experience and raised a number of significant issues for harbor masters, port captains, and other maritime entities. There was a general call for more planning products to help guide maritime communities in their tsunami response, mitigation, and recovery activities. The State of California is working with the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), and other tsunami experts to provide communities with new tsunami planning tools to address these issues: Response Playbooks and plans have been developed for ports and harbors identifying potential tsunami current hazards and related damage for various size events. Maps have been generated showing minor, moderate, and severe damage levels that have been linked to current velocity thresholds of 3, 6, and 9 knots, respectively. Knowing this information allows harbor personnel to move ships or strengthen infrastructure prior to the arrival of distant source tsunamis. Damage probability tools and mitigation plans have been created to help reduce tsunami damage by evaluating the survivability of small and large vessels in harbors and ports. These results were compared to the actual damage assessments performed in California and Japan following the 2011 Japanese tsunami. Fragility curves were developed based on current velocity and direction to help harbor and port officials upgrade docks, piles, and related structures. Guidance documents are being generated to help in the development of both local and statewide recovery plans. Additional tools, like post-tsunami sediment and debris movement models, will allow harbors and ports to better understand if and where recovery issues are most likely to occur. Streamlining the regulatory and environmental review process is also a goal of the guidance. These maritime products and procedures are being integrated into guidance

  18. Earthquake and Tsunami booklet based on two Indonesia earthquakes

    Hayashi, Y.; Aci, M.

    2014-12-01

    Many destructive earthquakes occurred during the last decade in Indonesia. These experiences are very important precepts for the world people who live in earthquake and tsunami countries. We are collecting the testimonies of tsunami survivors to clarify successful evacuation process and to make clear the characteristic physical behaviors of tsunami near coast. We research 2 tsunami events, 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and 2010 Mentawai slow earthquake tsunami. Many video and photographs were taken by people at some places in 2004 Indian ocean tsunami disaster; nevertheless these were few restricted points. We didn't know the tsunami behavior in another place. In this study, we tried to collect extensive information about tsunami behavior not only in many places but also wide time range after the strong shake. In Mentawai case, the earthquake occurred in night, so there are no impressive photos. To collect detail information about evacuation process from tsunamis, we contrived the interview method. This method contains making pictures of tsunami experience from the scene of victims' stories. In 2004 Aceh case, all survivors didn't know tsunami phenomena. Because there were no big earthquakes with tsunami for one hundred years in Sumatra region, public people had no knowledge about tsunami. This situation was highly improved in 2010 Mentawai case. TV programs and NGO or governmental public education programs about tsunami evacuation are widespread in Indonesia. Many people know about fundamental knowledge of earthquake and tsunami disasters. We made drill book based on victim's stories and painted impressive scene of 2 events. We used the drill book in disaster education event in school committee of west Java. About 80 % students and teachers evaluated that the contents of the drill book are useful for correct understanding.

  19. Absolute GPS Time Event Generation and Capture for Remote Locations

    HIRES Collaboration

    The HiRes experiment operates fixed location and portable lasers at remote desert locations to generate calibration events. One physics goal of HiRes is to search for unusual showers. These may appear similar to upward or horizontally pointing laser tracks used for atmospheric calibration. It is therefore necessary to remove all of these calibration events from the HiRes detector data stream in a physics blind manner. A robust and convenient "tagging" method is to generate the calibration events at precisely known times. To facilitate this tagging method we have developed the GPSY (Global Positioning System YAG) module. It uses a GPS receiver, an embedded processor and additional timing logic to generate laser triggers at arbitrary programmed times and frequencies with better than 100nS accuracy. The GPSY module has two trigger outputs (one microsecond resolution) to trigger the laser flash-lamp and Q-switch and one event capture input (25nS resolution). The GPSY module can be programmed either by a front panel menu based interface or by a host computer via an RS232 serial interface. The latter also allows for computer logging of generated and captured event times. Details of the design and the implementation of these devices will be presented. 1 Motivation Air Showers represent a small fraction, much less than a percent, of the total High Resolution Fly's Eye data sample. The bulk of the sample is calibration data. Most of this calibration data is generated by two types of systems that use lasers. One type sends light directly to the detectors via optical fibers to monitor detector gains (Girard 2001). The other sends a beam of light into the sky and the scattered light that reaches the detectors is used to monitor atmospheric effects (Wiencke 1998). It is important that these calibration events be cleanly separated from the rest of the sample both to provide a complete set of monitoring information, and more

  20. Near-field tsunami forecasting using offshore tsunami data from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    Tsushima, H.; Hayashi, Y.; Hirata, K.; Baba, T.; Ohta, Y.; Iinuma, T.; Hino, R.; Tanioka, Y.; Sakai, S.; Shinohara, M.; Kanazawa, T.; Maeda, K.

    2012-12-01

    Real-time tsunami forecasting is one of the effective ways to mitigate tsunami disasters. Transmission of a tsunami warning based on rapid and accurate tsunami forecasting to coastal communities helps the residents to make the decisions about their evacuation behaviors. Offshore tsunami data take an important role in tsunami forecasting. Tsunamis can be detected at offshore stations earlier than at coastal sites, and the data provide direct information about the impeding tsunamis. When the 2011 Tohoku earthquake occurred, the large tsunamis were clearly observed at various offshore observatories around Japan, such as cabled ocean bottom pressure gauges (OBPGs), GPS buoys and DART. In this study, we retrospectively applied an algorithm of near-field tsunami forecasting (Tsushima et al., 2009, 2012, JGR) to the offshore tsunami data from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake to examine how the algorithm contributes to tsunami forecasting of M9 earthquakes. Our tsunami forecasting algorithm is based on a source estimation. For the algorithm, offshore tsunami waveform data are inverted for spatial distribution of an initial sea-surface displacement, and then coastal tsunami waveforms are synthesized from the estimated source and pre-computed Green's functions by a linear superposition. No assumptions concerning the fault geometry and the size of an earthquake are required in the algorithm. The predictions are repeated by progressively updating the offshore tsunami waveform data. Because individual predictions can be calculated within a few minutes, tsunami predictions can be updated at short intervals of time, thus providing successive tsunami predictions with improved accuracy. We retrospectively applied our algorithm to the tsunami data recorded at 13 offshore stations (6 OBPGs, 6 GPS buoys, and 1 DART) during the 2011 Tohoku tsunami event. As a result of the application made 20 minutes after the earthquake, tsunamis with heights of 5-10 m were forecasted at the coastal sites

  1. Early Detection of Tsunami Scales using GPS

    Song, Y.

    2013-12-01

    This talk reviews how tsunamis form from earthquakes and how GPS technologies can be used to detect tsunami energy scales in real time. Most tsunami fatalities occur in near-field communities of earthquakes at offshore faults. Tsunami early warning is key for reducing the number of fatalities. Unfortunately, an earthquake's magnitude often does not gauge the resulting tsunami power. Here we show that real-time GPS stations along coastlines are able to detect seafloor motions due to big earthquakes, and that the detected seafloor displacements are able to determine tsunami energy and scales instantaneously for early warnings. Our method focuses on estimating tsunami energy directly from seafloor motions because a tsunami's potential or scale, no matter how it is defined, has to be proportional to the tsunami energy. Since seafloor motions are the only source of a tsunami, their estimation directly relates to the mechanism that generates tsunamis; therefore, it is a proper way of identifying earthquakes that are capable of triggering tsunamis, while being able to discriminate those particular earthquakes from false alarms. Examples of detecting the tsunami energy scales for the 2004 Sumatra M9.1 earthquake, the 2005 Nias M8.7 earthquake, the 2010 M8.8 Chilean earthquake, and the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake will be presented. Related reference: 1. Xu, Z. and Y. T. Song (2013), Combining the all-source Green's functions and the GPS-derived source for fast tsunami prediction - illustrated by the March 2011 Japan tsunami, J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech., jtechD1200201. 2. Song, Y. T., I. Fukumori, C. K. Shum, and Y. Yi (2012), Merging tsunamis of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake detected over the open ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2011GL050767. 3. Song, Y. T. and S.C. Han (2011) Satellite observations defying the long-held tsunami genesis theory, D.L. Tang (ed.), Remote Sensing of the Changing Oceans, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-16541-2, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

  2. Tsunami Modeling, Forecast and Warning (Invited)

    Satake, K.

    2010-12-01

    Tsunami is an infrequent natural hazard; however, once it happens, the effects are devastating and can be on global scale, as demonstrated by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Deterministic modeling of tsunami generation, propagation and coastal behavior has become popular, at least for earthquake tsunamis. Once the earthquake parameters are specified, tsunami arrival times, heights and current velocity at specific coastal points, and inland inundation area can be estimated. Such modeling has been used to make hazard maps usually by assuming largest possible earthquakes. However, smaller tsunamis than such a worst-case scenario occur more frequently. If the hazard maps are used incorrectly, it may lose reliability of coastal residents. Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments, similar to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis, have been made for some coasts. The output is tsunami hazard curves, i.e. annual probability (or return period) for specified coastal tsunami heights. A hazard curve is obtained by integration over the aleatory uncertainties, and a large number of hazard curves are made for each branch of logic tress representing epistemic uncertainty. Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis is used for design of critical facilities but not popularly used for disaster mitigation. Tsunami warning systems, which have been significantly developed since 2004, rely on seismic and sea-level monitoring and pre-made numerical simulation. Real-time data assimilation of offshore sea level measurements can be used to update the warning levels. Tsunami from the February 2010 Chilean earthquake was recorded on many tide gauges and ocean bottom pressure gauges in the Pacific, before it arrived on the Japanese coast about 22 hours after the earthquake. The tsunami height was up to 2 m on the Japanese coast, causing fishery damage amounting 60 million US dollars, but did not cause any human damage.

  3. Revisiting the 1761 Transatlantic Tsunami

    Baptista, Maria Ana; Wronna, Martin; Miranda, Jorge Miguel

    2016-04-01

    The tsunami catalogs of the Atlantic include two transatlantic tsunamis in the 18th century the well known 1st November 1755 and the 31st March 1761. The 31st March 1761 earthquake struck Portugal, Spain, and Morocco. The earthquake occurred around noontime in Lisbon alarming the inhabitants and throwing down ruins of the past 1st November 1755 earthquake. According to several sources, the earthquake was followed by a tsunami observed as far as Cornwall (United Kingdom), Cork (Ireland) and Barbados (Caribbean). The analysis of macroseismic information and its compatibility with tsunami travel time information led to a source area close to the Ampere Seamount with an estimated epicenter circa 34.5°N 13°W. The estimated magnitude of the earthquake was 8.5. In this study, we revisit the tsunami observations, and we include a report from Cadiz not used before. We use the results of the compilation of the multi-beam bathymetric data, that covers the area between 34°N - 38°N and 12.5°W - 5.5°W and use the recent tectonic map published for the Southwest Iberian Margin to select among possible source scenarios. Finally, we use a non-linear shallow water model that includes the discretization and explicit leap-frog finite difference scheme to solve the shallow water equations in the spherical or Cartesian coordinate to compute tsunami waveforms and tsunami inundation and check the results against the historical descriptions to infer the source of the event. This study received funding from project ASTARTE- Assessment Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe a collaborative project Grant 603839, FP7-ENV2013 6.4-3

  4. Stratigraphic evidence for earthquakes and tsunamis on the west coast of South Andaman Island, India during the past 1000 years

    Malik, Javed N.; Banerjee, Chiranjib; Khan, Afzal; Johnson, Frango C.; Shishikura, Masanobu.; Satake, Kenji.; Singhvi, Ashok K.

    2015-10-01

    Stratigraphic records from west coast of South Andaman Island revealed evidence of three historical earthquakes and associated transoceanic tsunamis during past 1000 yrs, in addition to the Mw 9.3 tsunamigenic earthquake of 26 December, 2004. Our finding suggests that along with Sumatran arc segment the Andaman-Arakan segment is also capable of generating mega-subduction zone earthquakes and transoceanic tsunamis. To study the near sub-surface stratigraphic succession we excavated shallow trenches and obtained geoslices from two sites around Collinpur (sites 1 and 2). The exposed succession comprised 11 lithounits (Unit a - youngest and k - oldest) of alternating sequence of coarser units overlain by peaty soils and some of these are indicative of deposition during paleo-tsunami events. Event I that predated AD 800, and is marked by a 35-40 cm thick deposit of fine gravel to coarse sands along with broken shell fragments (Unit k). Event II dated around AD 660-800, is represented by 20-25 cm thick coarse sand and broken shell fragments (Unit i). Based on stratigraphic evidences of land-level changes, this event is attributed to a near source rupture along Andaman-Arakan segment, accompanied by a transoceanic tsunami. Event III, occurred around AD 1120-1300, is marked by a 50 cm thick sand deposit (Unit g). The 2004 tsunami resulted in deposition of 15 cm thick medium to coarse sand at the same location. We infer that the 2004 tsunami and Event III resulted in different styles of sedimentation at the same site. Four events at Collinpur along with the record of a subsidence event of AD 1679 from the east coast of Andaman, close-to, Port Blair (Malik et al., 2011), suggest that mega-subduction zone earthquakes and associated tsunamis recur at an interval of 300-500 years at variable locations along the Sumatra-Andaman subduction zone.

  5. Assessment of Landslide-Tsunami Hazard for the Gulf of Mexico Using a Probabilistic Approach

    Pampell, A.; Horrillo, J. J.; Parambath, L.; Shigihara, Y.

    2014-12-01

    The devastating consequences of recent tsunami events in Indonesia (2004) and Japan (2011) have prompted a scientific response in assessing tsunami hazard even in regions where an apparent low risk or/and lack of complete historical tsunami record exists. Although a great uncertainty exists regarding the recurrence rate of large-scale tsunami events in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) due to sparsity of data, geological and historical evidences indicate that the most likely tsunami hazard could come from a submarine landslide triggered by a moderate earthquake. Under these circumstances, the assessment of the tsunami hazard in the region could be better accomplished by means of a probabilistic approach to identify tsunami sources. This study aims to customize for the GOM a probabilistic hazard assessment based on recurrence rates of tsunamigenic submarine mass failures (SMFs). The Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) technique is employed utilizing matrix correlations for landslide parameters to incorporate the uncertainty related to location/water-depth and landslide dimension based on lognormal/normal distributions obtained from observed data. Along fixed transects over the continental slope of the GOM, slide angle of failure, sediment properties and seismic peak horizontal accelerations (PHA) are determined by publicly available data. These parameter values are used to perform slope stability analyses in randomly generated translational SMFs obtained from the MCS technique. Once the SMF is identified as tsunamigenic for a given PHA recurrence rate, a preliminary tsunami amplitude can be estimated using empirical formulations. Thus, the annual probability of a tsunamigenic SMF is determined by the joint probability of failure with the annual PHA. By using the probabilistic approach, we identified tsunami sources with recurrence rates from few thousands to 10,000 years which produce extreme wave amplitudes for each transect. The most likely extreme tsunamigenic SMF events for a

  6. Tsunami watch and warning in Fiji

    The tsunami warning system needs further development in Fiji. The MRD earthquake and tsunami plan of action needs to be tested and appropriate authorities drilled in putting this plan into practice. It also needs to be supplemented with an alarm system such that people near the coasts, especially in built-up areas such as Suva can be made aware of impending tsunami danger. The plan of action becomes virtually ineffective when dealing with locally generated tsunamis and for this we have to rely on public education as it is not yet possible or practical to devise a warning system which can be activated within adequate time. 3 refs, 2 figs, 1 tab

  7. NLO event generation for chargino production at the ILC

    We present a Monte-Carlo event generator for simulating chargino pair-production at the International Linear Collider (ILC) at next-to-leading order in the electroweak couplings. By properly resumming photons in the soft and collinear regions, we avoid negative event weights, so the program can simulate physical (unweighted) event samples. Photons are explicitly generated throughout the range where they can be experimentally resolved. Inspecting the dependence on the cutoffs separating the soft and collinear regions, we evaluate the systematic errors due to soft and collinear approximations. In the resummation approach, the residual uncertainty can be brought down to the per-mil level, coinciding with the expected statistical uncertainty at the ILC. (Orig.)

  8. Monte Carlo event generators for hadron-hadron collisions

    Knowles, I.G. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). High Energy Physics Div.; Protopopescu, S.D. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1993-06-01

    A brief review of Monte Carlo event generators for simulating hadron-hadron collisions is presented. Particular emphasis is placed on comparisons of the approaches used to describe physics elements and identifying their relative merits and weaknesses. This review summarizes a more detailed report.

  9. Geological evidence of tsunamis and earthquakes at the Eastern Hellenic Arc: correlation with historical seismicity in the eastern Mediterranean Sea

    Gerassimos Papadopoulos

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Sedimentary stratigraphy determined by trenching in Dalaman, south-western Turkey, revealed three sand layers at a distance of approximately 240 m from the shoreline and at elevations of +0.30, +0.55 and +0.90 cm. Storm surge action does not explain the features of these deposits that show instead typical characteristics of tsunami deposition. The sand layers correlate with historical tsunamis generated by large earthquakes which ruptured the eastern Hellenic Arc and Trench in 1303, 1481 and 1741. Accelerator mass spectrometry 14C dating of a wood sample from layer II indicated deposition in AD 1473±46, which fits the 1481 event. From an estimated average alluvium deposition rate of approximately 0.13 cm/year, layers I and III were dated at 1322 and 1724, which may represent the large 1303 and 1741 tsunamis. The geological record of the 1303 key event is very poor; therefore, sand layer I perhaps represents an important geological signature of the 1303 tsunami. However, the strong tsunami reported to have been generated by the 1609 earthquake is missing from Dalaman stratigraphy: this underlines the sensitivity of tsunami geological signatures to various local factors. The 1303 earthquake ruptured the trench between the islands of Crete and Rhodes. For the earthquakes of 1481, 1609 and 1741 we suggested that they were very likely generated in the Rhodes Abyssal Plain where sea depths of up to approximately 4200 m, together with the thrust component of seismotectonics, favor tsunami generation. Sand dykes directed upwards from layer I to layer II indicated that the 1481 earthquake triggered liquefaction of sand layer I. The results substantially widen our knowledge about the historical earthquake and tsunami activity in the eastern Mediterranean basin.

  10. EVENT GENERATOR FOR RHIC SPIN PHYSICS-VOLUME 11

    SAITO,N.; SCHAEFER,A.

    1998-12-01

    This volume contains the report of the RIKEN BNL Research Center workshop on ''Event Generator for RHIC Spin Physics'' held on September 21-23, 1998 at Brookhaven National Laboratory. A major objective of the workshop was to establish a firm collaboration to develop suitable event generators for the spin physics program at RHIC. With the completion of the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) as a polarized collider a completely new domain of high-energy spin physics will be opened. The planned studies address the spin structure of the nucleon, tests of the standard model, and transverse spin effects in initial and final states. RHIC offers the unique opportunity to pursue these studies because of its high and variable energy, 50 {le} {radical}s {le} 500 GeV, high polarization, 70%, and high luminosity, 2 x 10{sup 32} cm{sup -2} sec{sup -1} or more at 500 GeV. To maximize the output from the spin program at RHIC, the understanding of both experimental and theoretical systematic errors is crucial. It will require full-fledged event generators, to simulate the processes of interest in great detail. The history of event generators shows that their development and improvement are ongoing processes taking place in parallel to the physics analysis by various experimental groups. The number of processes included in the generators has been increasing and the precision of their predictions has been being improved continuously. Our workshop aims at getting this process well under way for the spin physics program at RHIC, based on the fist development in this direction, SPHINX. The scope of the work includes: (1) update of the currently existing event generator by including the most recent parton parameterizations as a library and reflecting recent progress made for spin-independent generators, (2) implementation of new processes, especially parity violating effects in high energy pp collisions, (3) test of the currently available event generator by

  11. MARINE CONGLOMERATE AND REEF MEGACLASTS AT MAURITUS ISLAND: Evidences of a tsunami generated by a flank collapse of the PITON DE LA Fournaise volcano, Reunion Island?

    Paris, R.; Kelfoun, K.; T. Giachetti

    2014-01-01

    Tsunamis related to volcano flank collapse are typically a high-magnitude, low frequency hazard for which evaluation and mitigation are difficult to address. In this short communication, we present field evidences of a large tsunami along the southern coast of Mauritius Island ca. 4400 years ago. Tsunami deposits described include both marine conglomerates and coral boulders up to 90 m3 (> 100 tons). The most probable origin of the tsunami is a flank collapse of Piton de la Fournaise volcano,...

  12. Global Quick Scan of the Vulnerability of Groundwater systems to Tsunamis

    Oude Essink, Gualbert; Faneca Sànchez, Marta; Zamrsky, Daniel

    2014-05-01

    Fresh groundwater resources in deltaic areas are used for domestic, agricultural and industrial purposes. These resources in the coastal zone are threatened by salinization of the aquifers due to global change (increase of groundwater extraction due to population growth), climate change (including sea level rise), as well as natural disasters such as floods and tsunamis. Studies of how the coastal fresh groundwater resources are affected by the latter phenomena are often done a posteriori, especially the studies related to tsunami effects (e.g. the 2003 Sumatra Tsunami). Then it is often too late to take appropriated measures to counteract the negative effects (e.g. on drinking water supply). These complex studies are time consuming, and need data which might not be available at the time of the disaster when a fast reaction of the water authorities is needed, e.g. to facilitate a quick and easy to access fresh water supply system. In our study we present a Global Quick Scan of the vulnerability of the deltaic fresh groundwater resources to tsunamis. We created a global database including the data needed to generate fast and simple models on the salinization of groundwater systems in the coastal zone. These quantifications give water manager a first approximation of the effects that a tsunami would have on the salinization of the fresh groundwater. The data collected in this database has been used to generate a map showing the areas with coastal groundwater systems vulnerable to tsunami effects, as well as a dataset of 500 2D models representing the physical characteristics of the most frequent coastal groundwater systems in tsunami vulnerable areas. These 2D models simulate the loss in fresh groundwater volume of the system and the characteristic time of a system before it recovers 90% of the fresh groundwater that was available previous to the tsunami event. A similar approach could be adopted for assessing the effect of sea level rise and future increased

  13. Development of jacket platform tsunami risk rating system in waters offshore North Borneo

    Lee, H. E.; Liew, M. S.; Mardi, N. H.; Na, K. L.; Toloue, Iraj; Wong, S. K.

    2016-07-01

    This work details the simulation of tsunami waves generated by seaquakes in the Manila Trench and their effect on fixed oil and gas jacket platforms in waters offshore North Borneo. For this study, a four-leg living quarter jacket platform located in a water depth of 63m is modelled in SACS v5.3. Malaysia has traditionally been perceived to be safe from the hazards of earthquakes and tsunamis. Local design practices tend to neglect tsunami waves and include no such provisions. In 2004, a 9.3M w seaquake occurred off the northwest coast of Aceh, which generated tsunami waves that caused destruction in Malaysia totalling US 25 million and 68 deaths. This event prompted an awareness of the need to study the reliability of fixed offshore platforms scattered throughout Malaysian waters. In this paper, we present a review of research on the seismicity of the Manila Trench, which is perceived to be high risk for Southeast Asia. From the tsunami numerical model TUNA-M2, we extract computer-simulated tsunami waves at prescribed grid points in the vicinity of the platforms in the region. Using wave heights as input, we simulate the tsunami using SACS v5.3 structural analysis software of offshore platforms, which is widely accepted by the industry. We employ the nonlinear solitary wave theory in our tsunami loading calculations for the platforms, and formulate a platform-specific risk quantification system. We then perform an intensive structural sensitivity analysis and derive a corresponding platform-specific risk rating model.

  14. Tsunami overview.

    Morrow, Robert C; Llewellyn, D Mark

    2006-10-01

    Historically, floods and tsunamis have caused relatively few severe injuries; an exception to that tendency followed the great Andaman Island-Sumatra earthquake and tsunami of 2004. More than 280,000 people died, the coastal plains were massively scoured, and more than 1 million individuals were made homeless by the quake and resulting tsunami, which affected a 10-nation region around the Indian Ocean. This destruction overwhelmed local resources and called forth an unprecedented, prolonged, international response. The USNS Mercy deployed on a unique mission and rendered service to the people and government of Indonesia. This introduction provides background on the nature and extent of the damage, conditions upon arrival of the hospital ship 5 weeks after the initial destruction, and the configuration of professionals aboard (officers and sailors of the U.S. Navy, civilian volunteers from Project HOPE, officers of the U.S. Public Health Service, and officers and civilian mariners of the Military Sealift Command). Constraints on the mission provide context for the other articles of this issue that document and comment on the activities, challenges, methods, and accomplishments of this unique mission's "team of teams," performing humanitarian assistance and disaster relief in the Pacific theater. PMID:17447612

  15. The SAFRR tsunami scenario-physical damage in California: Chapter E in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Porter, Keith; Byers, William; Dykstra, David; Lim, Amy; Lynett, Patrick; Ratliff, Jaime; Scawthorn, Charles; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick

    2013-01-01

    his chapter attempts to depict a single realistic outcome of the SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) tsunami scenario in terms of physical damage to and recovery of various aspects of the built environment in California. As described elsewhere in this report, the tsunami is generated by a hypothetical magnitude 9.1 earthquake seaward of the Alaska Peninsula on the Semidi Sector of the Alaska–Aleutian Subduction Zone, 495 miles southwest of Anchorage, at 11:50 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) on Thursday March 27, 2014, and arriving at the California coast between 4:00 and 5:40 p.m. (depending on location) the same day. Although other tsunamis could have locally greater impact, this source represents a substantial threat to the state as a whole. One purpose of this chapter is to help operators and users of coastal assets throughout California to develop emergency plans to respond to a real tsunami. Another is to identify ways that operators or owners of these assets can think through options for reducing damage before a future tsunami. A third is to inform the economic analyses for the SAFRR tsunami scenario. And a fourth is to identify research needs to better understand the possible consequences of a tsunami on these assets. The asset classes considered here include the following: Piers, cargo, buildings, and other assets at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Large vessels in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Marinas and small craft Coastal buildings Roads and roadway bridges Rail, railway bridges, and rolling stock Agriculture Fire following tsunami Each asset class is examined in a subsection of this chapter. In each subsection, we generally attempt to offer a historical review of damage. We characterize and quantify the assets exposed to loss and describe the modes of damage that have been observed in past tsunamis or are otherwise deemed likely to occur in the SAFRR tsunami scenario. Where practical, we offer a mathematical model of the

  16. Effects of tsunami magnitude and terrestrial topography on sedimentary processes and distribution of tsunami deposits in flume experiments

    Yamaguchi, Naofumi; Sekiguchi, Tomohiro

    2015-10-01

    To identify and interpret tsunami deposits correctly, a better understanding of the effects of both tsunami magnitude and topographic setting are required. In the present study, laboratory experiments were performed to model these effects on sedimentary processes and the distribution of tsunami deposits on coastal lowlands. The experiments directed tsunamis of eight different magnitudes on to three different models of terrestrial topography: one with flat topography, one with a shallow water-filled pool, and one with a deep water-filled pool. The results suggested a relationship between the distribution of tsunami deposits and the hydraulic condition of the tsunami flow onto the terrestrial topography. In particular, the tsunami deposits in the pools were spatially more variable than those on land because of the variation in flow intensity associated with transformation of the flow from supercritical to subcritical with a hydraulic jump. We observed a gap between the landward extent of deposits and the tsunami inundation distance, particularly in the experiments with a pool. The total amount of sediment in tsunami deposits on the terrestrial area was found to depend on the magnitude of the tsunami, but the thickness of the deposits at any one given spot did not always depend on the tsunami magnitude, even in the same topographic. These results show that terrestrial topography has significant effects on the spatial distribution of tsunami deposits that must be taken into consideration when interpreting the history and magnitude of paleotsunami events from tsunami deposits.

  17. Global Tsunami Database: Adding Geologic Deposits, Proxies, and Tools

    Dunbar, P. K.; McCullough, H.

    2009-12-01

    NOAA’s National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) has expanded the tsunami data archive to include information inferred from the geologic record. Tsunami history provides clues to what might happen in the future, including frequency of occurrence and maximum wave heights. However, instrumental and written records commonly span too little time to reveal the full range of a region's tsunami hazard, so a global database of citations to articles on tsunami deposits was added to the archive. The citation database provides additional data on historical events and extends the record of tsunamis backward in time, in some cases to prehistoric or paleotsunami deposits preserved in the geologic record. The sedimentary deposits of tsunamis, identified with the aid of modern analogs, increasingly complement instrumental and human observations. Deposit locations, their estimated age and descriptions of the deposits themselves fill in the tsunami record. Tsunamis inferred from proxies, such as evidence for coseismic subsidence, are included to estimate recurrence intervals, but are flagged to highlight the absence of a physical deposit. There are currently over 800 citations describing deposits from all over the world in the database. More than half of the deposits are from Quaternary tsunamis and over 300 are associated with a specific historic tsunami event. The tsunami deposits are integrated with the historical tsunami event database where applicable. For example, users can search for articles describing deposits related to the 1755 Lisbon tsunami and view those records, as well as link to the related historic event record. Users can search the tsunami deposit database for a given location, year or geologic age, event or author. The data and information may be viewed using tools designed to extract and display data from the Oracle database (selection forms, Web Map Services, and Web Feature Services).

  18. Simulation of space-borne tsunami detection using GNSS-Reflectometry applied to tsunamis in the Indian Ocean

    R. Stosius

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Within the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System project GITEWS (Rudloff et al., 2009, a feasibility study on a future tsunami detection system from space has been carried out. The Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R is an innovative way of using reflected GNSS signals for remote sensing, e.g. sea surface altimetry. In contrast to conventional satellite radar altimetry, multiple height measurements within a wide field of view can be made simultaneously. With a dedicated Low Earth Orbit (LEO constellation of satellites equipped with GNSS-R, densely spaced sea surface height measurements could be established to detect tsunamis. This simulation study compares the Walker and the meshed comb constellation with respect to their global reflection point distribution. The detection performance of various LEO constellation scenarios with GPS, GLONASS and Galileo as signal sources is investigated. The study concentrates on the detection performance for six historic tsunami events in the Indian Ocean generated by earthquakes of different magnitudes, as well as on different constellation types and orbit parameters. The GNSS-R carrier phase is compared with the PARIS or code altimetry approach. The study shows that Walker constellations have a much better reflection point distribution compared to the meshed comb constellation. Considering simulation assumptions and assuming technical feasibility it can be demonstrated that strong tsunamis with magnitudes (M ≥8.5 can be detected with certainty from any orbit altitude within 15–25 min by a 48/8 or 81/9 Walker constellation if tsunami waves of 20 cm or higher can be detected by space-borne GNSS-R. The carrier phase approach outperforms the PARIS altimetry approach especially at low orbit altitudes and for a low number of LEO satellites.

  19. Tsunami magnetic signals in the Northwestern Pacific seafloor magnetic measurements

    Schnepf, N. R.; An, C.; Nair, M. C.; Maus, S.

    2013-12-01

    In the past two decades, underwater cables and seafloor magnetometers have observed motional inductance from ocean tsunamis. This study aimed to characterize the electromagnetic signatures of tsunamis from seafloor stations to assist in the long-term goal of real-time tsunami detection and warning systems. Four ocean seafloor stations (T13, T14, T15, T18) in the Northeastern Philippine Sea collected vector measurements of the electric and magnetic fields every minute during the period of 10/05/2005 to 11/30/2007 (Baba et al., 2010 PEPI). During this time, four major tsunamis occurred as a result of moment magnitude 8.0-8.1 earthquakes. These tsunamis include the 05/03/2006 Tonga event, the 01/13/2007 Kuril Islands event, the 04/01/2007 Solomon Islands event, and the 08/15/2007 Peru event. The Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami model (COMCOT) was used to predict the arrival time of the tsunamis at each of the seafloor stations. The stations' raw magnetic field signals underwent a high pass filter to then be examined for signals of the tsunami arrival. The high pass filtering showed clear tsunami signals for the Tonga event, but a clear signal was not seen for the other events. This may be due to signals from near Earth space with periods similar to tsunamis. To remove extraneous atmospheric magnetic signals, a cross-wavelet analysis was conducted using the horizontal field components from three INTERMAGNET land stations and the vertical component from the seafloor stations. The cross-wavelet analysis showed that for three of the six stations (two of the four tsunami events) the peak in wavelet amplitude matched the arrival of the tsunami. We discuss implications of our finding in magnetic monitoring of tsunamis.

  20. Modeling propagation and inundation of the 11 March 2011 Tohoku tsunami

    F. Løvholt

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available On 11 March 2011 the Tohoku tsunami devastated the east coast of Japan, claiming thousands of casualties and destroying coastal settlements and infrastructure. In this paper tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation are modeled to hindcast the event. Earthquake source models with heterogeneous slips are developed in order to match tsunami observations, including a best fit initial sea surface elevation with water levels up to 8 m. Tsunami simulations were compared to buoys in the Pacific, showing good agreement. In the far field the frequency dispersion provided a significant reduction even for the leading wave. Furthermore, inundation simulations were performed for ten different study areas. The results compared well with run-up measurements available and trim lines derived from satellite images, but with some overestimation of the modeled surface elevation in the northern part of the Sanriku coast. For inundation modeling this work aimed at using freely available, medium-resolution data for topography, bottom friction, and bathymetry, which are easily accessible in the framework of a rapid assessment. Although these data come along with some inaccuracies, the results of the tsunami simulations suggest that their use is feasible for application in rapid tsunami hazard assessments. A heterogeneous source model is essential to simulate the observed distribution of the run-up correctly, though.

  1. Assessment of tsunami hazards for the Central American Pacific coast from southern Mexico to northern Peru

    Brizuela, B.; Armigliato, A.; Tinti, S.

    2014-07-01

    Central America (CA), from Guatemala to Panama, has been struck by at least 52 tsunamis between 1539 and 2013, and in the extended region from Mexico to northern Peru (denoted as ECA, Extended Central America in this paper) the number of recorded tsunamis in the same time span is more than 100, most of which were triggered by earthquakes located in the Middle American Trench that runs parallel to the Pacific coast. The most severe event in the catalogue is the tsunami that occurred on 2 September 1992 off Nicaragua, with run-up measured in the range of 5-10 m in several places along the Nicaraguan coast. The aim of this paper is to assess the tsunami hazard on the Pacific coast of this extended region, and to this purpose a hybrid probabilistic-deterministic analysis is performed, that is adequate for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. More specifically, the probabilistic approach is used to compute the Gutenberg-Richter coefficients of the main seismic tsunamigenic zones of the area and to estimate the annual rate of occurrence of tsunamigenic earthquakes and their corresponding return period. The output of the probabilistic part of the method is taken as input by the deterministic part, which is applied to calculate the tsunami run-up distribution along the coast.

  2. Building strategies for tsunami scenarios databases to be used in a tsunami early warning decision support system: an application to western Iberia

    Tinti, S.; Armigliato, A.; Pagnoni, G.; Zaniboni, F.

    2012-04-01

    One of the most challenging goals that the geo-scientific community is facing after the catastrophic tsunami occurred on December 2004 in the Indian Ocean is to develop the so-called "next generation" Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). Indeed, the meaning of "next generation" does not refer to the aim of a TEWS, which obviously remains to detect whether a tsunami has been generated or not by a given source and, in the first case, to send proper warnings and/or alerts in a suitable time to all the countries and communities that can be affected by the tsunami. Instead, "next generation" identifies with the development of a Decision Support System (DSS) that, in general terms, relies on 1) an integrated set of seismic, geodetic and marine sensors whose objective is to detect and characterise the possible tsunamigenic sources and to monitor instrumentally the time and space evolution of the generated tsunami, 2) databases of pre-computed numerical tsunami scenarios to be suitably combined based on the information coming from the sensor environment and to be used to forecast the degree of exposition of different coastal places both in the near- and in the far-field, 3) a proper overall (software) system architecture. The EU-FP7 TRIDEC Project aims at developing such a DSS and has selected two test areas in the Euro-Mediterranean region, namely the western Iberian margin and the eastern Mediterranean (Turkish coasts). In this study, we discuss the strategies that are being adopted in TRIDEC to build the databases of pre-computed tsunami scenarios and we show some applications to the western Iberian margin. In particular, two different databases are being populated, called "Virtual Scenario Database" (VSDB) and "Matching Scenario Database" (MSDB). The VSDB contains detailed simulations of few selected earthquake-generated tsunamis. The cases provided by the members of the VSDB are computed "real events"; in other words, they represent the unknowns that the TRIDEC

  3. Using GPS to Detect Imminent Tsunamis

    Song, Y. Tony

    2009-01-01

    A promising method of detecting imminent tsunamis and estimating their destructive potential involves the use of Global Positioning System (GPS) data in addition to seismic data. Application of the method is expected to increase the reliability of global tsunami-warning systems, making it possible to save lives while reducing the incidence of false alarms. Tsunamis kill people every year. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami killed about 230,000 people. The magnitude of an earthquake is not always a reliable indication of the destructive potential of a tsunami. The 2004 Indian Ocean quake generated a huge tsunami, while the 2005 Nias (Indonesia) quake did not, even though both were initially estimated to be of the similar magnitude. Between 2005 and 2007, five false tsunami alarms were issued worldwide. Such alarms result in negative societal and economic effects. GPS stations can detect ground motions of earthquakes in real time, as frequently as every few seconds. In the present method, the epicenter of an earthquake is located by use of data from seismometers, then data from coastal GPS stations near the epicenter are used to infer sea-floor displacements that precede a tsunami. The displacement data are used in conjunction with local topographical data and an advanced theory to quantify the destructive potential of a tsunami on a new tsunami scale, based on the GPS-derived tsunami energy, much like the Richter Scale used for earthquakes. An important element of the derivation of the advanced theory was recognition that horizontal sea-floor motions contribute much more to generation of tsunamis than previously believed. The method produces a reliable estimate of the destructive potential of a tsunami within minutes typically, well before the tsunami reaches coastal areas. The viability of the method was demonstrated in computational tests in which the method yielded accurate representations of three historical tsunamis for which well-documented ground

  4. National Geophysical Data Center Tsunami Data Archive

    Stroker, K. J.; Dunbar, P. K.; Brocko, R.

    2008-12-01

    , significant volcano events, and various spatial reference layers such as topography, population density, and political boundaries. The map service also provides ftp links and hyperlinks to additional hazards information such as the NGDC collection of hazards photos. The NGDC website also provides a Keyhole Markup Language (KML) file, updated nightly, containing tsunami sources and runups

  5. Probabilistic assessment of landslide tsunami hazard for the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Pampell-Manis, A.; Horrillo, J.; Shigihara, Y.; Parambath, L.

    2016-01-01

    The devastating consequences of recent tsunamis affecting Indonesia and Japan have prompted a scientific response to better assess unexpected tsunami hazards. Although much uncertainty exists regarding the recurrence of large-scale tsunami events in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), geological evidence indicates that a tsunami is possible and would most likely come from a submarine landslide triggered by an earthquake. This study customizes for the GoM a first-order probabilistic landslide tsunami hazard assessment. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is employed to determine landslide configurations based on distributions obtained from observational submarine mass failure (SMF) data. Our MCS approach incorporates a Cholesky decomposition method for correlated landslide size parameters to capture correlations seen in the data as well as uncertainty inherent in these events. Slope stability analyses are performed using landslide and sediment properties and regional seismic loading to determine landslide configurations which fail and produce a tsunami. The probability of each tsunamigenic failure is calculated based on the joint probability of slope failure and probability of the triggering earthquake. We are thus able to estimate sizes and return periods for probabilistic maximum credible landslide scenarios. We find that the Cholesky decomposition approach generates landslide parameter distributions that retain the trends seen in observational data, improving the statistical validity and relevancy of the MCS technique in the context of landslide tsunami hazard assessment. Estimated return periods suggest that probabilistic maximum credible SMF events in the north and northwest GoM have a recurrence of 5000-8000 years, in agreement with age dates of observed deposits.

  6. Consistent Estimates of Tsunami Energy Show Promise for Improved Early Warning

    Titov, V.; Song, Y. Tony; Tang, L.; Bernard, E. N.; Bar-Sever, Y.; Wei, Y.

    2016-05-01

    Early tsunami warning critically hinges on rapid determination of the tsunami hazard potential in real-time, before waves inundate critical coastlines. Tsunami energy can quickly characterize the destructive potential of generated waves. Traditional seismic analysis is inadequate to accurately predict a tsunami's energy. Recently, two independent approaches have been proposed to determine tsunami source energy: one inverted from the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) data during the tsunami propagation, and the other derived from the land-based coastal global positioning system (GPS) during tsunami generation. Here, we focus on assessing these two approaches with data from the March 11, 2011 Japanese tsunami. While the GPS approach takes into consideration the dynamic earthquake process, the DART inversion approach provides the actual tsunami energy estimation of the propagating tsunami waves; both approaches lead to consistent energy scales for previously studied tsunamis. Encouraged by these promising results, we examined a real-time approach to determine tsunami source energy by combining these two methods: first, determine the tsunami source from the globally expanding GPS network immediately after an earthquake for near-field early warnings; and then to refine the tsunami energy estimate from nearby DART measurements for improving forecast accuracy and early cancelations. The combination of these two real-time networks may offer an appealing opportunity for: early determination of the tsunami threat for the purpose of saving more lives, and early cancelation of tsunami warnings to avoid unnecessary false alarms.

  7. Peru 2007 tsunami runup observations and modeling

    Fritz, H. M.; Kalligeris, N.; Borrero, J. C.

    2008-05-01

    On 15 August 2007 an earthquake with moment magnitude (Mw) of 8.0 centered off the coast of central Peru, generated a tsunami with locally focused runup heights of up to 10 m. A reconnaissance team was deployed in the immediate aftermath and investigated the tsunami effects at 51 sites. The largest runup heights were measured in a sparsely populated desert area south of the Paracas Peninsula resulting in only 3 tsunami fatalities. Numerical modeling of the earthquake source and tsunami suggest that a region of high slip near the coastline was primarily responsible for the extreme runup heights. The town of Pisco was spared by the presence of the Paracas Peninsula, which blocked tsunami waves from propagating northward from the high slip region. The coast of Peru has experienced numerous deadly and destructive tsunamis throughout history, which highlights the importance of ongoing tsunami awareness and education efforts in the region. The Peru tsunami is compared against recent mega-disasters such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and Hurricane Katrina.

  8. Tsunami Amplification due to Focusing

    Moore, C. W.; Kanoglu, U.; Titov, V. V.; Aydin, B.; Spillane, M. C.; Synolakis, C. E.

    2012-12-01

    (Synolakis et al., 2008, Pure Appl. Geophys. 165(11-12), 2197-2228), and with a Boussinesq model, to illustrate the role focusing can play for different initial conditions, and to show the robust nature of focusing with respect to dispersion. We also show how the focusing effect might have played a role in the 17 July 1998 Papua New Guinea and 17 July 2006 Java events, and also the 11 March 2011 Great Japan earthquake and tsunami. Our results strongly imply that focusing increases the shoreline amplification of the tsunami.; Schematic of focusing; initial displacement (upper left), wave evolution (upper right, lower left), maximum wave amplitude with focusing (lower right).

  9. Size Constraints on Late Miocene to Pliocene Submarine Slope Failures along the Colombian Caribbean Subduction Margin as a Basis for Assessing Circum-Caribbean Impact of Future Tsunami Events

    Leslie, S.; Mann, P.

    2015-12-01

    The Colombian Caribbean margin provides an ideal setting for the formation of large mass transport deposits (MTDs): 1) the Caribbean Plate is slowly subducting at rates of 20 mm/yr with infrequent large thrust earthquakes and a complete lack of subduction events in the 400-year-long historical record; 2) the margin is a broad zone of active faults including a ~50 km-wide accretionary prism and strike-slip faults landward of the prism; 3) the active margin is draped by the Magdalena delta and submarine fan fed by the Magdalena River, the 26th largest in the world; and 4) the margin is over-steepened to slopes of up to 7° from the combination of tectonic activity and rapid rates of deltaic progradation. Using seismic data we have identified three late Miocene-Pliocene MTDs, the largest of which is between 4500 and 6000 km3, comparable in size to the well-studied Storegga slide of Norway. The tsunamigenic potential of future, analog MTD events are modeled using GeoWave tsunami modeling software. The largest and youngest of these MTDs, the Santa Marta slide, is used as an analog to infer the location and input parameters for the tsunami model. The event is modeled as a translational slide ~46 km long and ~37 km wide with the center of the slide located ~57 km W/NW from the mouth of the present day Magdalena River in water depths of 1500 m. The volume for the initial failure is conservatively estimated at ~680 km3 of material. The resulting tsunami wave from such an event has an initial maximum trough amplitude of -65.8 m and a peak amplitude of 19.2 m. The impact of such a tsunami would include: 1) Kingston, Jamaica (population 938K), tsunami height 7.5 m, peak arrival at 60 min.; 2) Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic (population 965K, height 6 m, peak arrival at 80 min.); and 3) Cartagena, Colombia (population 845K, height 21 m, peak arrival at 34 min.). A number of parameters to the model are varied to analyze sensitivity of modeling results to changes in slide depth

  10. Effective Spectral Function for Neutrino Quasielastic Scattering Event Generators

    Coopersmith, Brian; Bodek, Arie; Christy, M. Eric

    2014-03-01

    The spectral functions that are used in modeling of quasi elastic scattering in neutrino event generators such as GENIE, NEUT, NUANCE and NUWRO event generators include (Global) Fermi gas, local Fermi gas, Bodek-Ritche Fermi gas with high momentum tail, and the Benhar Fantoni spectral function. We find that these spectral functions do not agree with the prediction of ψ' superscaling functions that are extracted from electron quasi elastic scattering data on nuclear targets. It is known that spectral functions do not fully describe quasi elastic scattering because they only model the initial state. Final state interactions distort the shape of the quasi elastic peak, reduce the cross section at the peak and increase the cross section at the tail of the distribution for large energy transfer to final state nucleons. We show that an ``effective spectral function'' can be constructed to reliably reproduce the kinematic distributions predicted by the ψ' super scaling formalism.

  11. SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Preparedness and Resilience for California's ecosystems, natural resources, and the communities that depend on them

    Brosnan, D. M.

    2013-12-01

    The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario models a plausible 9.1MP earthquake occuring off the Alaskan coast, that generates a tsunami forecast to strike California between 4-6 hour after the event. California's diverse ecosystems, natural resources, and sensitive species will be significantly affected. Although often overlooked in disaster risk reduction, damage to ecosystems and natural resources during hazards including tsunamis, has often resulted in serious impacts to natural systems and on humans who depend on them. SAFRR tsunami scenario forecasts of wave amplitude, water velocity and inundation and overlain on GIS maps were analyzed to identify plausible impacts on California's ecosystems including beaches, marshes, nearshore subtidal habitats, as well as parks and reserves. The effect on natural resources including fisheries was evaluated. Recovery times and consequences were analyzed. The results illustrate the value and vulnerability of these resources and guidelines for preparation and mitigation are discussed.

  12. Stochastic generation of hourly rainstorm events in Johor

    Nojumuddin, Nur Syereena; Yusof, Fadhilah [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 UTM Johor Bahru, Johor (Malaysia); Yusop, Zulkifli [Institute of Environmental and Water Resources Management, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 UTM Johor Bahru, Johor (Malaysia)

    2015-02-03

    Engineers and researchers in water-related studies are often faced with the problem of having insufficient and long rainfall record. Practical and effective methods must be developed to generate unavailable data from limited available data. Therefore, this paper presents a Monte-Carlo based stochastic hourly rainfall generation model to complement the unavailable data. The Monte Carlo simulation used in this study is based on the best fit of storm characteristics. Hence, by using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and Anderson Darling goodness-of-fit test, lognormal appeared to be the best rainfall distribution. Therefore, the Monte Carlo simulation based on lognormal distribution was used in the study. The proposed model was verified by comparing the statistical moments of rainstorm characteristics from the combination of the observed rainstorm events under 10 years and simulated rainstorm events under 30 years of rainfall records with those under the entire 40 years of observed rainfall data based on the hourly rainfall data at the station J1 in Johor over the period of 1972–2011. The absolute percentage error of the duration-depth, duration-inter-event time and depth-inter-event time will be used as the accuracy test. The results showed the first four product-moments of the observed rainstorm characteristics were close with the simulated rainstorm characteristics. The proposed model can be used as a basis to derive rainfall intensity-duration frequency in Johor.

  13. Stochastic generation of hourly rainstorm events in Johor

    Engineers and researchers in water-related studies are often faced with the problem of having insufficient and long rainfall record. Practical and effective methods must be developed to generate unavailable data from limited available data. Therefore, this paper presents a Monte-Carlo based stochastic hourly rainfall generation model to complement the unavailable data. The Monte Carlo simulation used in this study is based on the best fit of storm characteristics. Hence, by using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and Anderson Darling goodness-of-fit test, lognormal appeared to be the best rainfall distribution. Therefore, the Monte Carlo simulation based on lognormal distribution was used in the study. The proposed model was verified by comparing the statistical moments of rainstorm characteristics from the combination of the observed rainstorm events under 10 years and simulated rainstorm events under 30 years of rainfall records with those under the entire 40 years of observed rainfall data based on the hourly rainfall data at the station J1 in Johor over the period of 1972–2011. The absolute percentage error of the duration-depth, duration-inter-event time and depth-inter-event time will be used as the accuracy test. The results showed the first four product-moments of the observed rainstorm characteristics were close with the simulated rainstorm characteristics. The proposed model can be used as a basis to derive rainfall intensity-duration frequency in Johor

  14. Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence

    Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Tom

    2011-10-01

    The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1 m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1 m is also analyzed that appears to be complete since approximately 1960. Various kernel density estimates used to determine the rate distribution with time indicate a prominent rate change in global tsunamis during the mid-1990s. Less prominent rate changes occur in the early- and mid-20th century. To determine whether these rate fluctuations are anomalous, the distribution of annual event numbers for the tsunami catalogue is compared to Poisson and negative binomial distributions, the latter of which includes the effects of temporal clustering. Compared to a Poisson distribution, the negative binomial distribution model provides a consistent fit to tsunami event numbers for the >1 m data set, but the Poisson null hypothesis cannot be falsified for the shorter duration >0.1 m data set. Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is also indicated by the distribution of interevent times for both data sets. Tsunami event clusters consist only of two to four events, in contrast to protracted sequences of earthquakes that make up foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequences. From past studies of seismicity, it is likely that there is a physical triggering mechanism responsible for events within the tsunami source 'mini-clusters'. In conclusion, prominent transient rate increases in the occurrence of global tsunamis appear to be caused by temporal grouping of geographically distinct mini-clusters, in addition to the random preferential location of global M >7 earthquakes along offshore fault zones.

  15. NiMax system for hadronic event generators in HEP

    We have suggested a new approach to the development and use of Monte Carlo event generators in high-energy physics (HEP). It is a component approach, when a complex numerical model is composed of standard components. Our approach opens a way to organize a library of HEP model components and provides a great flexibility for the construction of very powerful and realistic numerical models. To support this approach we have designed the NiMax software system (framework) written in C++

  16. Extreme events, intrinsic landforms and humankind: Post-tsunami scenario along Nagore–Velankanni coast, Tamil Nadu, India

    Mascarenhas, A.

    average width were a f fected (Figure 3 d ). Scenario 3 ? A natural, functional and sustainable coas t Lessons learnt from extreme events have set a new par a- digm for coastal management worldwide 15,16,21 . Know l edge of coastal ecosystems....), Bookwell Press, New Delhi, 2000, pp. 201 ? 216. 6. Paul, A. K., Cyclonic storms and their impacts on West Bengal coast. In Procee dings of the I n ternational Seminar on Quaternary Sea Level Variation, Shoreline Displacement and Coastal Env i...

  17. e+e- event generator EPOCS user's manual

    EPOCS(Electron POsitron Collision Simulator) is a Monte-Carlo event generator for high energy e+e- annihilation. This program generates events based on the standard model, i.e., quantum chromodynamics (QCD) and electro-weak theory. It works at the center-of-mass energy below W+W- production, i.e., in the energy region of TRISTAN, SLC and LEP. For these high energy machines one of the important subjects is the exploration for the top quark. The production and hadronization of the top quark is included in EPOCS. Besides the top quark, we expect 'new' physics in this high energy region. EPOCS has enough flexibility for users to cope with a new idea. Users can register a new particle, modify the built-in particle data, define new primary interactions and so on. The event generator has a number of parameters, both physical parameters and control parameters. Users can control most of these parameters in EPOCS at will. (author)

  18. How to learn and develop from both good and bad lessons- the 2011Tohoku tsunami case -

    Sugimoto, Megumi; Okazumi, Toshio

    2013-04-01

    The 2011 Tohoku tsunami revealed Japan has repeated same mistakes in a long tsunami disaster history. After the disaster Japanese remember many old lessons and materials: an oral traditional evacuation method 'Tsunami TENDENKO' which is individual independent quick evacuation, a tsunami historical memorial stone "Don't construct houses below this stone to seaside" in Aneyoshi town Iwate prefecture, Namiwake-shrine naming from the story of protect people from tsunami in Sendai city, and so on. Tohoku area has created various tsunami historical cultures to descendent. Tohoku area had not had a tsunami disaster for 50 years after the 1960 Chilean tsunami. The 2010 Chilean tsunami damaged little fish industry. People gradually lost tsunami disaster awareness. At just the bad time the magnitude (M) 9 scale earthquake attacked Tohoku. It was for our generations an inexperienced scale disaster. People did not make use of the ancestor's lessons to survive. The 2004 Sumatra tsunami attacked just before 7 years ago. The magnitude scale is almost same as M 9 scale. Why didn't Tohoku people and Japanese tsunami experts make use of the lessons? Japanese has a character outside Japan. This lesson shows it is difficult for human being to learn from other countries. As for Three mile island accident case in US, it was same for Japan. To addition to this, there are similar types of living lessons among different hazards. For examples, nuclear power plantations problem occurred both the 2012 Hurricane Sandy in US and the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. Both local people were not informed about the troubles though Oyster creek nuclear power station case in US did not proceed seriously all. Tsunami and Hurricane are different hazard. Each exparts stick to their last. 1. It is difficult for human being to transfer living lessons through next generation over decades. 2. It is difficult for human being to forecast inexperienced events. 3. It is usually underestimated the danger because human being

  19. Advanced Planning for Tsunamis in California

    Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Larkin, D.; Reade, S.; Carnathan, D.; Davis, M.; Nicolini, T.; Johnson, L.; Boldt, E.; Tardy, A.

    2013-12-01

    The California Tsunami Program is comprised of the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services (CalOES) and the California Geological Survey (CGS) and funded through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The program works closely with the 20 coastal counties in California, as well as academic, and industry experts to improve tsunami preparedness and mitigation in shoreline communities. Inundation maps depicting 'worst case' inundation modeled from plausible sources around the Pacific were released in 2009 and have provided a foundation for public evacuation and emergency response planning in California. Experience during recent tsunamis impacting the state (Japan 2011, Chile 2010, Samoa 2009) has brought to light the desire by emergency managers and decision makers for even more detailed information ahead of future tsunamis. A solution to provide enhanced information has been development of 'playbooks' to plan for a variety of expected tsunami scenarios. Elevation 'playbook' lines can be useful for partial tsunami evacuations when enough information about forecast amplitude and arrival times is available to coastal communities and there is sufficient time to make more educated decisions about who to evacuate for a given scenario or actual event. NOAA-issued Tsunami Alert Bulletins received in advance of a distant event will contain an expected wave height (a number) for each given section of coast. Provision of four elevation lines for possible inundation enables planning for different evacuation scenarios based on the above number potentially alleviating the need for an 'all or nothing' decision with regard to evacuation. Additionally an analytical tool called FASTER is being developed to integrate storm, tides, modeling errors, and local tsunami run-up potential with the forecasted tsunami amplitudes in real-time when a tsunami Alert is sent out. Both of these products will help

  20. Real time earthquake information and tsunami estimation system for Indonesia, Philippines and Central-South American regions

    Pulido Hernandez, N. E.; Inazu, D.; Saito, T.; Senda, J.; Fukuyama, E.; Kumagai, H.

    2015-12-01

    Southeast Asia as well as Central-South American regions are within the most active seismic regions in the world. To contribute to the understanding of source process of earthquakes the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention NIED maintains the international seismic Network (ISN) since 2007. Continuous seismic waveforms from 294 broadband seismic stations in Indonesia, Philippines, and Central-South America regions are received in real time at NIED, and used for automatic location of seismic events. Using these data we perform automatic and manual estimation of moment tensor of seismic events (Mw>4.5) by using the SWIFT program developed at NIED. We simulate the propagation of local tsunamis in these regions using a tsunami simulation code and visualization system developed at NIED, combined with CMT parameters estimated by SWIFT. The goals of the system are to provide a rapid and reliable earthquake and tsunami information in particular for large seismic, and produce an appropriate database of earthquake source parameters and tsunami simulations for research. The system uses the hypocenter location and magnitude of earthquakes automatically determined at NIED by the SeisComP3 system (GFZ) from the continuous seismic waveforms in the region, to perform the automated calculation of moment tensors by SWIFT, and then carry out the automatic simulation and visualization of tsunami. The system generates maps of maximum tsunami heights within the target regions and along the coasts and display them with the fault model parameters used for tsunami simulations. Tsunami calculations are performed for all events with available automatic SWIFT/CMT solutions. Tsunami calculations are re-computed using SWIFT manual solutions for events with Mw>5.5 and centroid depths shallower than 100 km. Revised maximum tsunami heights as well as animation of tsunami propagation are also calculated and displayed for the two double couple solutions by SWIFT

  1. Assessing tsunami-induced groundwater salinization and its temporal change: a numerical modelling study on the Niijima Island, Japan

    Liu, Jiaqi; Tokunaga, Tomochika

    2016-04-01

    Groundwater is vulnerable to many natural hazards, including tsunami. As reported after the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake, the generated massive tsunami inundations resulted in unexpected groundwater salinization in coastal areas. Water supply was strongly disturbed due to the significantly elevated salinity in groundwater. Supplying fresh water is one of the prioritized concerns in the immediate aftermath of disaster, and during long-term post-disaster reconstruction as well. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of tsunami on coastal groundwater system and provide guidelines on managing water resources in post-tsunami period. We selected the study area as the Niijima Island, a tsunami-prone area in Japan, which is under the risk of being attacked by a devastated tsunami with its wave height up to 30 m. A three-dimension (3-D) numerical model of the groundwater system on the Niijima Island was developed by using the simulation code FEFLOW which can handle both density- dependent groundwater flow and saturated-unsaturated flow processes. The model was justified by the measured water table data obtained from the field work in July, 2015. By using this model, we investigated saltwater intrusion and aquifer recovery process under different tsunami scenarios. Modelling results showed that saltwater could fully saturate the vadose zone and come into contact with groundwater table in just 10 mins. The 0.6 km2 of inundation area introduced salt mass equivalent to approximately 9×104 t of NaCl into the vadose zone. After the retreat of tsunami waves, the remained saltwater in vadose zone continuously intruded into the groundwater and dramatically salinized the aquifer up to about 10,000 mg/L. In the worst tsunami scenario, it took more than 10 years for the polluted aquifer to be entirely recovered by natural rainfall. Given that the groundwater is the only freshwater source on the Niijima Island, we can provide suggestions

  2. Monte-Carlo event generation for the LHC

    Siegert, Frank

    This thesis discusses recent developments for the simulation of particle physics in the light of the start-up of the Large Hadron Collider. Simulation programs for fully exclusive events, dubbed Monte-Carlo event generators, are improved in areas related to the perturbative as well as non-perturbative regions of strong interactions. A short introduction to the main principles of event generation is given to serve as a basis for the following discussion. An existing algorithm for the correction of parton-shower emissions with the help of exact tree-level matrix elements is revisited and significantly improved as attested by first results. In a next step, an automated implementation of the POWHEG method is presented. It allows for the combination of parton showers with full next-to-leading order QCD calculations and has been tested in several processes. These two methods are then combined into a more powerful framework which allows to correct a parton shower with full next-to-leading order matrix elements and h...

  3. Washington Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program

    Walsh, T. J.; Schelling, J.

    2012-12-01

    Washington State has participated in the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) since its inception in 1995. We have participated in the tsunami inundation hazard mapping, evacuation planning, education, and outreach efforts that generally characterize the NTHMP efforts. We have also investigated hazards of significant interest to the Pacific Northwest. The hazard from locally generated earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone, which threatens tsunami inundation in less than hour following a magnitude 9 earthquake, creates special problems for low-lying accretionary shoreforms in Washington, such as the spits of Long Beach and Ocean Shores, where high ground is not accessible within the limited time available for evacuation. To ameliorate this problem, we convened a panel of the Applied Technology Council to develop guidelines for construction of facilities for vertical evacuation from tsunamis, published as FEMA 646, now incorporated in the International Building Code as Appendix M. We followed this with a program called Project Safe Haven (http://www.facebook.com/ProjectSafeHaven) to site such facilities along the Washington coast in appropriate locations and appropriate designs to blend with the local communities, as chosen by the citizens. This has now been completed for the entire outer coast of Washington. In conjunction with this effort, we have evaluated the potential for earthquake-induced ground failures in and near tsunami hazard zones to help develop cost estimates for these structures and to establish appropriate tsunami evacuation routes and evacuation assembly areas that are likely to to be available after a major subduction zone earthquake. We intend to continue these geotechnical evaluations for all tsunami hazard zones in Washington.

  4. Learning from Fukushima. A holistic approach to tsunami risk assessment

    Two devastating tsunamis in the 21st century were caused by large megathrust earthquakes on tectonic plate boundaries; the Boxing Day tsunami in 2004 and the Great Tohoku tsunami in 2011. Both of these events have led to a focus on tsunamis caused by megathrusts when assessing risks to coastal nuclear power plants. From a longer time perspective, however, such earthquakes are not the only - or even the most significant - sources of large tsunamis. It is important that the key lesson from the impact of the Great Tohoku earthquake and associated tsunami on the Fukushima Dai-ichi power plant - that unexpected combinations of events can cause complete failure of defence in depth - is not lost by looking in too much detail at these particular incidents. Instead a wider assessment of events that can give rise to giant waves and major inundation should be considered. (author)

  5. Event trees and dynamic event trees: Applications to steam generator tube rupture accidents

    The dynamic event tree analysis method (DETAM) is a simulation based approach that models the integrated, dynamic response of the plant/operating crew system to an accident. It extends the conventional event tree/fault tree methodology for accident sequence analysis in two ways. First, it allows for tree branchings at discrete points in time. Second, the tree sequences explicitly track changes in the operating crew state, as well as changes in the plant hardware state. Process variable calculations and operating procedures are used in linking the crew and hardware behaviour. - The paper compares the conventional event tree/fault tree methodology for accident sequence analysis with the dynamic event tree method in the analysis of a pressurized water reactor steam generator tube rupture. Two previous PSA analyses are used for the comparison. The first employs the ''event tree with boundary conditions'' approach and uses fairly detailed top event headings. The second employs the ''linked fault tree'' approach and uses a relatively small event tree. - A quantitative comparison of the results of the three analyses shows that, in this particularly case study, the DETAM results appear to be less conservative. This is due, in part, to DETAM's treatment of recovery actions embedded in the emergency operating procedures. The quantitative results, however, should be viewed with some caution, since: (a) the three analyses have different scopes and employ different assumptions, and (b) a number of the parameters used in the DETAM analysis are highly uncertain. - A qualitative comparison of results shows that the dominant sequences predicted by each methodology are similar. However, the DETAM scenario descriptions are more detailed and allow better definition of steps to reduce risk. Further, the DETAM models deal with the variety of human error forms and their consequences; this provides a better capability of identifying and quantifying complex accident scenarios that may not

  6. Global Tsunami Deposits Database, a demonstration

    Brocko, V. R.; Dunbar, P. K.

    2008-12-01

    A result of collaboration between NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences (CIRES), the Global Tsunami Database includes instrumental records, human observations, and now, information inferred from the geologic record. Historical reports, tide gauge data, Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) data, and information gleaned from published tsunami deposit research build a multi-faceted view of tsunami hazards and their history around the world. Tsunami history provides clues to what might happen in the future, including frequency of occurrence and maximum wave heights. However, instrumental and written records commonly span too little time to reveal the full range of a region's tsunami hazard. The sedimentary deposits of tsunamis, identified with the aid of modern analogs, increasingly complement instrumental and human observations. By adding the component of tsunamis inferred from the geologic record, the database extends the record of tsunamis backward in time. Deposit locations, their estimated age and descriptions of the deposits themselves fill in the tsunami record. Tsunamis inferred from proxies, such as evidence for coseismic subsidence, are included to estimate recurrence intervals, but are flagged to highlight the absence of a physical deposit. NGDC and CIRES welcome contributions and suggestions to improve the content and presentation of the database. Authors may submit their own descriptions and upload digital versions of publications. The data and information may be searched and viewed using tools designed to extract and display data from the Oracle database (selection forms, Web Map Services, and Web Feature Services). For example, users may select or sort by many fields, including event, location, region, age of deposit, author, publication type, grain size, composition, presence/absence of plant material. They may find tsunami deposit references for a given

  7. Tool for Generating Realistic Residential Hot Water Event Schedules: Preprint

    Hendron, B.; Burch, J.; Barker, G.

    2010-08-01

    The installed energy savings for advanced residential hot water systems can depend greatly on detailed occupant use patterns. Quantifying these patterns is essential for analyzing measures such as tankless water heaters, solar hot water systems with demand-side heat exchangers, distribution system improvements, and recirculation loops. This paper describes the development of an advanced spreadsheet tool that can generate a series of year-long hot water event schedules consistent with realistic probability distributions of start time, duration and flow rate variability, clustering, fixture assignment, vacation periods, and seasonality. This paper also presents the application of the hot water event schedules in the context of an integral-collector-storage solar water heating system in a moderate climate.

  8. Dispersive mudslide-induced tsunamis

    A. Rubino

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available A nonlinear nested model for mudslide-induced tsunamis is proposed in which three phases of the life of the wave, i.e. the generation, far-field propagation and costal run-up are described by means of different mathematical models, that are coupled through appropriate matching procedures. The generation and run-up dynamics are simulated through a nonlinear shallow-water model with movable lateral boundaries: in the generation region two active layers are present, the lower one describing the slide descending on a sloping topography. For the intermediate phase, representing wave propagation far from the generation region, the hydrostatic assumption is not assumed as appropriate in general and, therefore, a nonlinear model allowing for weak phase dispersion, namely a Kadomtsev-Petviashvili equation, is used. This choice is made in order to assess the relevance of dispersive features such as solitary waves and dispersive tails. It is shown that in some realistic circumstances dispersive mudslide-induced tsunami waves can be produced over relatively short, distances. In such cases the use of a hydrostatic model throughout the whole tsunami history turns out to give erroneous results. In particular, when solitary waves are generated during the tsunami propagation in the open sea, the resulting run-up process yields peculiar wave forms leading to amplified coastal inundations with respect to a mere hydrostatic context.

  9. Field survey of the 16 September 2015 Chile tsunami

    Lagos, Marcelo; Fritz, Hermann M.

    2016-04-01

    tsunami was characterized by rapid arrival within minutes in the nearfield requiring spontaneous self-evacuation as warning messages did not reach some of the hardest hit fishing villages prior to tsunami arrival. The absence of a massive tsunami outside of the 4th region may mislead evacuated residents in the adjacent 3rd and 5th regions of Chile in potential future events. This event poses significant challenges to community-based education raising tsunami awareness. The team educated residents about tsunami hazards since awareness programs are essential to save lives in locales at risk from near-field tsunamis.

  10. Modeling of Tsunami Currents in Harbors

    Lynett, P. J.

    2010-12-01

    Extreme events, such as large wind waves and tsunamis, are well recognized as a damaging hazard to port and harbor facilities. Wind wave events, particularly those with long period spectral components or infragravity wave generation, can excite resonance inside harbors leading to both large vertical motions and strong currents. Tsunamis can cause great damage as well. The geometric amplification of these very long waves can create large vertical motions in the interior of a harbor. Additionally, if the tsunami is composed of a train of long waves, which it often is, resonance can be easily excited. These long wave motions create strong currents near the node locations of resonant motions, and when interacting with harbor structures such as breakwaters, can create intense turbulent rotational structures, typical in the form of large eddies or gyres. These gyres have tremendous transport potential, and have been observed to break mooring lines, and even cause ships to be trapped inside the rotation, moving helplessly with the flow until collision, grounding, or dissipation of the eddy (e.g. Okal et al., 2006). This presentation will introduce the traditional theory used to predict wave impacts on harbors, discussing both how these models are practically useful and in what types of situations require a more accurate tool. State-of-the-art numerical models will be introduced, with a focus on recent developments in Boussinesq-type modeling. The Boussinesq equations model can account the dispersive, turbulent and rotational flow properties frequently observed in nature. Also they have the ability to coupling currents and waves and can predict nonlinear wave propagation over uneven bottom from deep (or intermediate) water area to shallow water area. However, during the derivation of a 2D-horizontal equation set, some 3D flow features, such those driven by as the dispersive stresses and the effects of the unresolved small scale 3D turbulence, are excluded. Consequently

  11. Tsunami-HySEA model validation for tsunami current predictions

    Macías, Jorge; Castro, Manuel J.; González-Vida, José Manuel; Ortega, Sergio

    2016-04-01

    Model ability to compute and predict tsunami flow velocities is of importance in risk assessment and hazard mitigation. Substantial damage can be produced by high velocity flows, particularly in harbors and bays, even when the wave height is small. Besides, an accurate simulation of tsunami flow velocities and accelerations is fundamental for advancing in the study of tsunami sediment transport. These considerations made the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) proposing a benchmark exercise focussed on modeling and simulating tsunami currents. Until recently, few direct measurements of tsunami velocities were available to compare and to validate model results. After Tohoku 2011 many current meters measurement were made, mainly in harbors and channels. In this work we present a part of the contribution made by the EDANYA group from the University of Malaga to the NTHMP workshop organized at Portland (USA), 9-10 of February 2015. We have selected three out of the five proposed benchmark problems. Two of them consist in real observed data from the Tohoku 2011 event, one at Hilo Habour (Hawaii) and the other at Tauranga Bay (New Zealand). The third one consists in laboratory experimental data for the inundation of Seaside City in Oregon. Acknowledgements: This research has been partially supported by the Junta de Andalucía research project TESELA (P11-RNM7069) and the Spanish Government Research project DAIFLUID (MTM2012-38383-C02-01) and Universidad de Málaga, Campus de Excelencia Andalucía TECH. The GPU and multi-GPU computations were performed at the Unit of Numerical Methods (UNM) of the Research Support Central Services (SCAI) of the University of Malaga.

  12. Tsunami diaries

    Radović Srđan

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Inspired by recent discussion on how Serbian media influenced allegedly indifferent reaction of the public to the aftermath of tsunami, this paper examines the role of electronic media in Serbia, television in particular, in regard to their function as a central communication channel for acquiring knowledge about world surroundings. With a premise of having cultural and discursive power, Dnevnik, the central news program of the Serbian public broadcaster, is taken as a paradigmatic media text for analysis in order to examine ways in which global affairs and phenomena are portrayed and structured in television representation of reality. It is suggested that it is fair to conclude that world affairs are marginalized within the representational frame of news broadcasts, and that the media discourse could be depicted as dominantly introverted when it comes to global flow of information and cultural meanings, which is significant regarding cultural perception of world realities among Serbian audiences.

  13. Tsunami forecast by joint inversion of real-time tsunami waveforms and seismic of GPS data: application to the Tohoku 2011 tsunami

    Yong, Wei; Newman, Andrew V.; Hayes, Gavin P.; Titov, Vasily V.; Tang, Liujuan

    2014-01-01

    Correctly characterizing tsunami source generation is the most critical component of modern tsunami forecasting. Although difficult to quantify directly, a tsunami source can be modeled via different methods using a variety of measurements from deep-ocean tsunameters, seismometers, GPS, and other advanced instruments, some of which in or near real time. Here we assess the performance of different source models for the destructive 11 March 2011 Japan tsunami using model–data comparison for the generation, propagation, and inundation in the near field of Japan. This comparative study of tsunami source models addresses the advantages and limitations of different real-time measurements with potential use in early tsunami warning in the near and far field. The study highlights the critical role of deep-ocean tsunami measurements and rapid validation of the approximate tsunami source for high-quality forecasting. We show that these tsunami measurements are compatible with other real-time geodetic data, and may provide more insightful understanding of tsunami generation from earthquakes, as well as from nonseismic processes such as submarine landslide failures.

  14. MARINE CONGLOMERATE AND REEF MEGACLASTS AT MAURITUS ISLAND: Evidences of a tsunami generated by a flank collapse of the PITON DE LA Fournaise volcano, Reunion Island?

    R. Paris

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Tsunamis related to volcano flank collapse are typically a high-magnitude, low frequency hazard for which evaluation and mitigation are difficult to address. In this short communication, we present field evidences of a large tsunami along the southern coast of Mauritius Island ca. 4400 years ago. Tsunami deposits described include both marine conglomerates and coral boulders up to 90 m3 (> 100 tons. The most probable origin of the tsunami is a flank collapse of Piton de la Fournaise volcano, Réunion Island.

  15. Seismic and tsunami safety margin assessment

    Nuclear Regulation Authority is going to establish new seismic and tsunami safety guidelines to increase the safety of NPPs. The main purpose of this research is testing structures/components important to safety and tsunami resistant structures/components, and evaluating the capacity of them against earthquake and tsunami. Those capacity data will be utilized for the seismic and tsunami back-fit review based on the new seismic and tsunami safety guidelines. The summary of the program in 2012 is as follows. 1. Component seismic capacity test and quantitative seismic capacity evaluation. PWR emergency diesel generator partial-model seismic capacity tests have been conducted and quantitative seismic capacities have been evaluated. 2. Seismic capacity evaluation of switching-station electric equipment. Existing seismic test data investigation, specification survey and seismic response analyses have been conducted. 3. Tsunami capacity evaluation of anti-inundation measure facilities. Tsunami pressure test have been conducted utilizing a small breakwater model and evaluated basic characteristics of tsunami pressure against seawall structure. (author)

  16. Could a 1755-Like Tsunami Reach the French Atlantic Coastline? Constraints from Twentieth Century Observations and Numerical Modeling

    Allgeyer, S.; Daubord, C.; Hébert, H.; Loevenbruck, A.; Schindelé, F.; Madariaga, R.

    2013-09-01

    The tsunami generated by the 1 November, 1755 earthquake off the coast of Portugal affected mainly the coastlines of the Iberian Peninsula and Northwest Morocco, but was also observed in some places along the North Atlantic coasts. To determine whether the event could have effected the French coastline, we conducted a study to search for signs of the tsunami in historical records from all tide gauge stations off the French Atlantic coast during the twentieth century, specifically for the 28 February, 1969 and the 26 May, 1975 tsunamis that were recorded by the Portuguese tide gauge network. Because many recordings are available in La Rochelle (located on the southwest coast of France), we focused our study on this harbor. The analysis of the tide gauge data shows no evidence for tsunamis in La Rochelle, neither in 1969 nor in 1975. To confirm this lack of tsunami signals, we used nonlinear, shallow water equations to compute the tsunami propagation to the French Atlantic coastline for both 1969 and 1975 events. Results obtained from these simulations confirm otherwise unnoticeable wave amplitudes at La Rochelle harbor. In a second step, tsunamis from three different scenarios for the 1755 earthquake were modeled to estimate the impact of such a tsunami on the French Atlantic coast, with a focus on La Rochelle harbor. A comparison of the functions of tide configuration was made in order to analyse the difference in impact. The results show that, while the harbor is poorly impacted, several areas (western part of the island of Ré and northern coast of the island of Oléron) may have experienced a moderate impact from 0.5 to 1 m, especially since the tide was high at the time of arrival, possibly causing local inundations in lowland areas.

  17. Unearthing earthquakes and their tsunamis using multiple proxies: the 22 June 1932 event and a probable fourteenth-century predecessor on the Pacific coast of Mexico

    Ramírez-Herrera, M.-T.; Corona, N.; Lagos, M.; Černý, Jan; Goguitchaichvili, A.; Goff, J.; Chaugé-Goff, C.; Machain, M. L.; Zawadzki, A.; Jacobsen, G.; Carranza-Edwards, A.; Lozano, S.; Blecher, L.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 56, č. 13 (2014), s. 1584-1601. ISSN 0020-6814 Institutional support: RVO:67985831 Keywords : tsunami deposits * palaeotsunami * tropical environment * multi-proxy approach * Pacific coast * México Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 1.708, year: 2014

  18. The Solomon Islands tsunami of 6 February 2013 field survey in the Santa Cruz Islands

    Fritz, H. M.; Papantoniou, A.; Biukoto, L.; Albert, G.

    2013-12-01

    On February 6, 2013 at 01:12:27 UTC (local time: UTC+11), a magnitude Mw 8.0 earthquake occurred 70 km to the west of Ndendo Island (Santa Cruz Island) in the Solomon Islands. The under-thrusting earthquake near a 90° bend, where the Australian plate subducts beneath the Pacific plate generated a locally focused tsunami in the Coral Sea and the South Pacific Ocean. The tsunami claimed the lives of 10 people and injured 15, destroyed 588 houses and partially damaged 478 houses, affecting 4,509 people in 1,066 households corresponding to an estimated 37% of the population of Santa Cruz Island. A multi-disciplinary international tsunami survey team (ITST) was deployed within days of the event to document flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment and coral boulder depositions, land level changes, damage patterns at various scales, performance of the man-made infrastructure and impact on the natural environment. The 19 to 23 February 2013 ITST covered 30 locations on 4 Islands: Ndendo (Santa Cruz), Tomotu Noi (Lord Howe), Nea Tomotu (Trevanion, Malo) and Tinakula. The reconnaissance completely circling Ndendo and Tinakula logged 240 km by small boat and additionally covered 20 km of Ndendo's hard hit western coastline by vehicle. The collected survey data includes more than 80 tsunami runup and flow depth measurements. The tsunami impact peaked at Manoputi on Ndendo's densely populated west coast with maximum tsunami height exceeding 11 m and local flow depths above ground exceeding 7 m. A fast tide-like positive amplitude of 1 m was recorded at Lata wharf inside Graciosa Bay on Ndendo Island and misleadingly reported in the media as representative tsunami height. The stark contrast between the field observations on exposed coastlines and the Lata tide gauge recording highlights the importance of rapid tsunami reconnaissance surveys. Inundation distance and damage more than 500 m inland were recorded at Lata airport on Ndendo Island. Landslides were

  19. State Emergency Response and Field Observation Activities in California (USA) during the March 11, 2011, Tohoku Tsunami

    Miller, K. M.; Wilson, R. I.; Goltz, J.; Fenton, J.; Long, K.; Dengler, L.; Rosinski, A.; California Tsunami Program

    2011-12-01

    This poster will present an overview of successes and challenges observed by the authors during this major tsunami response event. The Tohoku, Japan tsunami was the most costly to affect California since the 1964 Alaskan earthquake and ensuing tsunami. The Tohoku tsunami caused at least $50 million in damage to public facilities in harbors and marinas along the coast of California, and resulted in one fatality. It was generated by a magnitude 9.0 earthquake which occurred at 9:46PM PST on Thursday, March 10, 2011 in the sea off northern Japan. The tsunami was recorded at tide gages monitored by the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC), which projected tsunami surges would reach California in approximately 10 hours. At 12:51AM on March 11, 2011, based on forecasted tsunami amplitudes, the WCATWC placed the California coast north of Point Conception (Santa Barbara County) in a Tsunami Warning, and the coast south of Point Conception to the Mexican border in a Tsunami Advisory. The California Emergency Management Agency (CalEMA) activated two Regional Emergency Operation Centers (REOCs) and the State Operation Center (SOC). The California Geological Survey (CGS) deployed a field team which collected data before, during and after the event through an information clearinghouse. Conference calls were conducted hourly between the WCATWC and State Warning Center, as well as with emergency managers in the 20 coastal counties. Coordination focused on local response measures, public information messaging, assistance needs, evacuations, emergency shelters, damage, and recovery issues. In the early morning hours, some communities in low lying areas recommended evacuation for their citizens, and the fishing fleet at Crescent City evacuated to sea. The greatest damage occurred in the harbors of Crescent City and Santa Cruz. As with any emergency, there were lessons learned and important successes in managing this event. Forecasts by the WCATWC were highly accurate

  20. What caused the mysterious eighteenth century tsunami that struck the southwest Taiwan coast?

    Li, Linlin; Switzer, Adam D.; Wang, Yu; Weiss, Robert; Qiu, Qiang; Chan, Chung-Han; Tapponnier, Paul

    2015-10-01

    Several different historical records allude to a disastrous tsunami on the southwestern Taiwan coast sometime between 1781 and 1782, with a reported death toll of more than 40,000. Despite consistent reports from southwest Taiwan, no corroborative information exists for neighboring shorelines in southeast China or northwest Luzon, Philippines, and a plausible source of this tsunami has never been identified. Neither a large earthquake from the Manila trench and active thrust faults nor a submarine volcanic eruption from the northern Luzon Arc can explain the very localized area affected and the physical phenomena described in the historical records. Comparing the results of 13 numerical models of tsunamis generated from different sources (earthquake, volcano, and submarine mass failure), we therefore suggest that a seismically triggered, submarine mass failure on the upper portion of the continental slope offshore from southwestern Taiwan is the most likely source of the eighteenth century event.

  1. Tsunamis: Water Quality

    ... Landslides Tornadoes Tsunamis Volcanoes Wildfires Winter Weather Tsunamis: Water Quality Language: English Español (Spanish) Recommend on Facebook ... about testing should be directed to local authorities. Water for Drinking, Cooking, and Personal Hygiene Safe water ...

  2. Development of a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis Method and Application to an NPP in Korea

    A methodology of tsunami PSA was developed in this study. A tsunami PSA consists of tsunami hazard analysis, tsunami fragility analysis and system analysis. In the case of tsunami hazard analysis, evaluation of tsunami return period is a major task. For the evaluation of tsunami return period was evaluated with empirical method using historical tsunami record and tidal gauge record. For the performing a tsunami fragility analysis, procedure of tsunami fragility analysis was established and target equipment and structures for investigation of tsunami fragility assessment were selected. A sample fragility calculation was performed for the equipment in a Nuclear Power Plant. For the system analysis, accident sequence of tsunami event was developed according to the tsunami run-up and draw down, and tsunami induced core damage frequency (CDF) is determined. For the application to the real nuclear power plant, the Ulchin 56 NPP which is located on the east coast of Korean peninsula was selected. Through this study, whole tsunami PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) working procedure was established and an example calculation was performed for one nuclear power plant in Korea

  3. Tsunami Risk and Vulnerability

    Khomarudin, Muhammad Rokhis

    2010-01-01

    The research focuses on providing reliable spatial information in support of tsunami risk and vulnerability assessment within the framework of the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) project. It contributes to three major components of the project: (1) the provision of spatial information on surface roughness as an important parameter for tsunami inundation modeling and hazard assessment; (2) the modeling of population distribution, which is an essential factor in tsunami ...

  4. Event generator tunes obtained from underlying event and multiparton scattering measurements

    Khachatryan, Vardan; Tumasyan, Armen; Adam, Wolfgang; Aşılar, Ece; Bergauer, Thomas; Brandstetter, Johannes; Brondolin, Erica; Dragicevic, Marko; Erö, Janos; Flechl, Martin; Friedl, Markus; Fruehwirth, Rudolf; Ghete, Vasile Mihai; Hartl, Christian; Hörmann, Natascha; Hrubec, Josef; Jeitler, Manfred; Knünz, Valentin; König, Axel; Krammer, Manfred; Krätschmer, Ilse; Liko, Dietrich; Matsushita, Takashi; Mikulec, Ivan; Rabady, Dinyar; Rahbaran, Babak; Rohringer, Herbert; Schieck, Jochen; Schöfbeck, Robert; Strauss, Josef; Treberer-Treberspurg, Wolfgang; Waltenberger, Wolfgang; Wulz, Claudia-Elisabeth; Mossolov, Vladimir; Shumeiko, Nikolai; Suarez Gonzalez, Juan; Alderweireldt, Sara; Cornelis, Tom; De Wolf, Eddi A; Janssen, Xavier; Knutsson, Albert; Lauwers, Jasper; Luyckx, Sten; Van De Klundert, Merijn; Van Haevermaet, Hans; Van Mechelen, Pierre; Van Remortel, Nick; Van Spilbeeck, Alex; Abu Zeid, Shimaa; Blekman, Freya; D'Hondt, Jorgen; Daci, Nadir; De Bruyn, Isabelle; Deroover, Kevin; Heracleous, Natalie; Keaveney, James; Lowette, Steven; Moreels, Lieselotte; Olbrechts, Annik; Python, Quentin; Strom, Derek; Tavernier, Stefaan; Van Doninck, Walter; Van Mulders, Petra; Van Onsem, Gerrit Patrick; Van Parijs, Isis; Barria, Patrizia; Brun, Hugues; Caillol, Cécile; Clerbaux, Barbara; De Lentdecker, Gilles; Fasanella, Giuseppe; Favart, Laurent; Grebenyuk, Anastasia; Karapostoli, Georgia; Lenzi, Thomas; Léonard, Alexandre; Maerschalk, Thierry; Marinov, Andrey; Perniè, Luca; Randle-conde, Aidan; Seva, Tomislav; Vander Velde, Catherine; Vanlaer, Pascal; Yonamine, Ryo; Zenoni, Florian; Zhang, Fengwangdong; Beernaert, Kelly; Benucci, Leonardo; Cimmino, Anna; Crucy, Shannon; Dobur, Didar; Fagot, Alexis; Garcia, Guillaume; Gul, Muhammad; Mccartin, Joseph; Ocampo Rios, Alberto Andres; Poyraz, Deniz; Ryckbosch, Dirk; Salva Diblen, Sinem; Sigamani, Michael; Tytgat, Michael; Van Driessche, Ward; Yazgan, Efe; Zaganidis, Nicolas; Basegmez, Suzan; Beluffi, Camille; Bondu, Olivier; Brochet, Sébastien; Bruno, Giacomo; Caudron, Adrien; Ceard, Ludivine; Da Silveira, Gustavo Gil; Delaere, Christophe; Favart, Denis; Forthomme, Laurent; Giammanco, Andrea; Hollar, Jonathan; Jafari, Abideh; Jez, Pavel; Komm, Matthias; Lemaitre, Vincent; Mertens, Alexandre; Musich, Marco; Nuttens, Claude; Perrini, Lucia; Pin, Arnaud; Piotrzkowski, Krzysztof; Popov, Andrey; Quertenmont, Loic; Selvaggi, Michele; Vidal Marono, Miguel; Beliy, Nikita; Hammad, Gregory Habib; Aldá Júnior, Walter Luiz; Alves, Fábio Lúcio; Alves, Gilvan; Brito, Lucas; Correa Martins Junior, Marcos; Hamer, Matthias; Hensel, Carsten; Moraes, Arthur; Pol, Maria Elena; Rebello Teles, Patricia; Belchior Batista Das Chagas, Ewerton; Carvalho, Wagner; Chinellato, Jose; Custódio, Analu; Da Costa, Eliza Melo; De Jesus Damiao, Dilson; De Oliveira Martins, Carley; Fonseca De Souza, Sandro; Huertas Guativa, Lina Milena; Malbouisson, Helena; Matos Figueiredo, Diego; Mora Herrera, Clemencia; Mundim, Luiz; Nogima, Helio; Prado Da Silva, Wanda Lucia; Santoro, Alberto; Sznajder, Andre; Tonelli Manganote, Edmilson José; Vilela Pereira, Antonio; Ahuja, Sudha; Bernardes, Cesar Augusto; De Souza Santos, Angelo; Dogra, Sunil; Tomei, Thiago; De Moraes Gregores, Eduardo; Mercadante, Pedro G; Moon, Chang-Seong; Novaes, Sergio F; Padula, Sandra; Romero Abad, David; Ruiz Vargas, José Cupertino; Aleksandrov, Aleksandar; Hadjiiska, Roumyana; Iaydjiev, Plamen; Rodozov, Mircho; Stoykova, Stefka; Sultanov, Georgi; Vutova, Mariana; Dimitrov, Anton; Glushkov, Ivan; Litov, Leander; Pavlov, Borislav; Petkov, Peicho; Ahmad, Muhammad; Bian, Jian-Guo; Chen, Guo-Ming; Chen, He-Sheng; Chen, Mingshui; Cheng, Tongguang; Du, Ran; Jiang, Chun-Hua; Plestina, Roko; Romeo, Francesco; Shaheen, Sarmad Masood; Spiezia, Aniello; Tao, Junquan; Wang, Chunjie; Wang, Zheng; Zhang, Huaqiao; Asawatangtrakuldee, Chayanit; Ban, Yong; Li, Qiang; Liu, Shuai; Mao, Yajun; Qian, Si-Jin; Wang, Dayong; Xu, Zijun; Avila, Carlos; Cabrera, Andrés; Chaparro Sierra, Luisa Fernanda; Florez, Carlos; Gomez, Juan Pablo; Gomez Moreno, Bernardo; Sanabria, Juan Carlos; Godinovic, Nikola; Lelas, Damir; Puljak, Ivica; Ribeiro Cipriano, Pedro M; Antunovic, Zeljko; Kovac, Marko; Brigljevic, Vuko; Kadija, Kreso; Luetic, Jelena; Micanovic, Sasa; Sudic, Lucija; Attikis, Alexandros; Mavromanolakis, Georgios; Mousa, Jehad; Nicolaou, Charalambos; Ptochos, Fotios; Razis, Panos A; Rykaczewski, Hans; Bodlak, Martin; Finger, Miroslav; Finger Jr, Michael; Abdelalim, Ahmed Ali; Awad, Adel; Mahrous, Ayman; Mohammed, Yasser; Radi, Amr; Calpas, Betty

    2016-01-01

    New sets of parameters (``tunes'') for the underlying-event (UE) modeling of the PYTHIA8, PYTHIA6 and HERWIG++ Monte Carlo event generators are constructed using different parton distribution functions. Combined fits to CMS UE data at $\\sqrt{s} =$ 7 TeV and to UE data from the CDF experiment at lower $\\sqrt{s}$, are used to study the UE models and constrain their parameters, providing thereby improved predictions for proton-proton collisions at 13 TeV. In addition, it is investigated whether the values of the parameters obtained from fits to UE observables are consistent with the values determined from fitting observables sensitive to double-parton scattering processes. Finally, comparisons of the UE tunes to ``minimum bias'' (MB) events, multijet, and Drell--Yan ($ \\mathrm{ q \\bar{q} } \\rightarrow \\mathrm{Z} / \\gamma^* \\rightarrow$ lepton-antilepton + jets) observables at 7 and 8 TeV are presented, as well as predictions of MB and UE observables at 13 TeV.

  5. Event generator tunes obtained from underlying event and multiparton scattering measurements

    Khachatryan, Vardan; et al.

    2016-03-17

    New sets of parameters (“tunes”) for the underlying-event (UE) modelling of the pythia8, pythia6 and herwig++ Monte Carlo event generators are constructed using different parton distribution functions. Combined fits to CMS UE proton–proton ( $\\mathrm {p}\\mathrm {p}$ ) data at $\\sqrt{s} = 7\\,\\text {TeV} $ and to UE proton–antiproton ( $\\mathrm {p}\\overline{\\mathrm{p}} $ ) data from the CDF experiment at lower $\\sqrt{s}$ , are used to study the UE models and constrain their parameters, providing thereby improved predictions for proton–proton collisions at 13 $\\,\\text {TeV}$ . In addition, it is investigated whether the values of the parameters obtained from fits to UE observables are consistent with the values determined from fitting observables sensitive to double-parton scattering processes. Finally, comparisons are presented of the UE tunes to “minimum bias” (MB) events, multijet, and Drell–Yan ( $ \\mathrm{q} \\overline{\\mathrm{q}} \\rightarrow \\mathrm{Z}/ \\gamma ^* \\rightarrow $ lepton-antilepton+jets) observables at 7 and 8 $\\,\\text {TeV}$ , as well as predictions for MB and UE observables at 13 $\\,\\text {TeV}$ .

  6. The tsunami probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Example of accident sequence analysis of tsunami PRA according to the standard for procedure of tsunami PRA for nuclear power plants

    After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) accident, standard for procedure of tsunami PRA for NPP had been established by the Standardization Committee of AESJ. Industry group had been conducting analysis of Tsunami PRA for PWR based on the standard under the cooperation with electric utilities. This article introduced overview of the standard and examples of accident sequence analysis of Tsunami PRA studied by the industry group according to the standard. The standard consisted of (1) investigation of NPP's composition, characteristics and site information, (2) selection of relevant components for Tsunami PRA and initiating events and identification of accident sequence, (3) evaluation of Tsunami hazards, (4) fragility evaluation of building and components and (5) evaluation of accident sequence. Based on the evaluation, countermeasures for further improvement of safety against Tsunami could be identified by the sensitivity analysis. (T. Tanaka)

  7. Next-generation navigational infrastructure and the ATLAS event store

    The ATLAS event store employs a persistence framework with extensive navigational capabilities. These include real-time back navigation to upstream processing stages, externalizable data object references, navigation from any data object to any other both within a single file and across files, and more. The 2013-2014 shutdown of the Large Hadron Collider provides an opportunity to enhance this infrastructure in several ways that both extend these capabilities and allow the collaboration to better exploit emerging computing platforms. Enhancements include redesign with efficient file merging in mind, content-based indices in optimized reference types, and support for forward references. The latter provide the potential to construct valid references to data before those data are written, a capability that is useful in a variety of multithreading, multiprocessing, distributed processing, and deferred processing scenarios. This paper describes the architecture and design of the next generation of ATLAS navigational infrastructure.

  8. Next-Generation Navigational Infrastructure and the ATLAS Event Store

    van Gemmeren, P; The ATLAS collaboration; Nowak, M

    2014-01-01

    The ATLAS event store employs a persistence framework with extensive navigational capabilities. These include real-time back navigation to upstream processing stages, externalizable data object references, navigation from any data object to any other both within a single file and across files, and more. The 2013-2014 shutdown of the Large Hadron Collider provides an opportunity to enhance this infrastructure in several ways that both extend these capabilities and allow the collaboration to better exploit emerging computing platforms. Enhancements include redesign with efficient file merging in mind, content-based indices in optimized reference types, and support for forward references. The latter provide the potential to construct valid references to data before those data are written, a capability that is useful in a variety of multithreading, multiprocessing, distributed processing, and deferred processing scenarios. This paper describes the architecture and design of the next generation of ATLAS navigation...

  9. Next-Generation Navigational Infrastructure and the ATLAS Event Store

    van Gemmeren, P; The ATLAS collaboration; Nowak, M

    2013-01-01

    The ATLAS event store employs a persistence framework with extensive navigational capabilities. These include real-time back navigation to upstream processing stages, externalizable data object references, navigation from any data object to any other both within a single file and across files, and more. The 2013-2014 shutdown of the Large Hadron Collider provides an opportunity to enhance this infrastructure in several ways that both extend these capabilities and allow the collaboration to better exploit emerging computing platforms. Enhancements include redesign with efficient file merging in mind, content-based indices in optimized reference types, and support for forward references. The latter provide the potential to construct valid references to data before those data are written, a capability that is useful in a variety of multithreading, multiprocessing, distributed processing, and deferred processing scenarios. This paper describes the architecture and design of the next generation of ATLAS navigation...

  10. Top Quark Mass Calibration for Monte Carlo Event Generators

    Butenschoen, Mathias; Hoang, Andre H; Mateu, Vicent; Preisser, Moritz; Stewart, Iain W

    2016-01-01

    The most precise top quark mass measurements use kinematic reconstruction methods, determining the top mass parameter of a Monte Carlo event generator, $m_t^{\\rm MC}$. Due to hadronization and parton shower dynamics, relating $m_t^{\\rm MC}$ to a field theory mass is difficult. We present a calibration procedure to determine this relation using hadron level QCD predictions for observables with kinematic mass sensitivity. Fitting $e^+e^-$ 2-Jettiness calculations at NLL/NNLL order to Pythia 8.205, $m_t^{\\rm MC}$ differs from the pole mass by $900$/$600$ MeV, and agrees with the MSR mass within uncertainties, $m_t^{\\rm MC}\\simeq m_{t,1\\,{\\rm GeV}}^{\\rm MSR}$.

  11. Transient Tsunamis in Lakes

    Couston, L.; Mei, C.; Alam, M.

    2013-12-01

    A large number of lakes are surrounded by steep and unstable mountains with slopes prone to failure. As a result, landslides are likely to occur and impact water sitting in closed reservoirs. These rare geological phenomena pose serious threats to dam reservoirs and nearshore facilities because they can generate unexpectedly large tsunami waves. In fact, the tallest wave experienced by contemporary humans occurred because of a landslide in the narrow bay of Lituya in 1958, and five years later, a deadly landslide tsunami overtopped Lake Vajont's dam, flooding and damaging villages along the lakefront and in the Piave valley. If unstable slopes and potential slides are detected ahead of time, inundation maps can be drawn to help people know the risks, and mitigate the destructive power of the ensuing waves. These maps give the maximum wave runup height along the lake's vertical and sloping boundaries, and can be obtained by numerical simulations. Keeping track of the moving shorelines along beaches is challenging in classical Eulerian formulations because the horizontal extent of the fluid domain can change over time. As a result, assuming a solid slide and nonbreaking waves, here we develop a nonlinear shallow-water model equation in the Lagrangian framework to address the problem of transient landslide-tsunamis. In this manner, the shorelines' three-dimensional motion is part of the solution. The model equation is hyperbolic and can be solved numerically by finite differences. Here, a 4th order Runge-Kutta method and a compact finite-difference scheme are implemented to integrate in time and spatially discretize the forced shallow-water equation in Lagrangian coordinates. The formulation is applied to different lake and slide geometries to better understand the effects of the lake's finite lengths and slide's forcing mechanism on the generated wavefield. Specifically, for a slide moving down a plane beach, we show that edge-waves trapped by the shoreline and free

  12. IMPACT OF TSUNAMI 2004 IN COASTAL VILLAGES OF NAGAPATTINAM DISTRICT, INDIA

    R. Kumaraperumal

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACTA quake-triggered tsunami lashed the Nagapattinam coast of southern India on December 26, 2004 at around 9.00 am (IST. The tsunami caused heavy damage to houses, tourist resorts, fishing boats, prawn culture ponds, soil and crops, and consequently affected the livelihood of large numbers of the coastal communities. The study was carried out in the Tsunami affected villages in the coastal Nagapattinam with the help of remote sensing and geographical information science tools. Through the use of the IRS 1D PAN and LISS 3 merged data and quick bird images, it was found that 1,320 ha of agricultural and non-agricultural lands were affected by the tsunami. The lands were affected by soil erosion, salt deposition, water logging and other deposited sediments and debris. The maximum run-up height of 6.1 m and the maximum seawater inundation distance of 2.2 km were observed at Vadakkupoyyur village in coastal Nagapattinam.Pre and Post Tsunami survey on soil quality showed an increase in pH and EC values, irrespectiveof distance from the sea. The water reaction was found to be in alkaline range (> 8.00 in most of the -1wells. Salinity levels are greater than 4 dS m in all the wells except the ring well. The effect of summer rainfall on soil and water quality showed the dilution of soluble salts. Pumping of water has reduced the salinity levels in the well water samples and as well as in the open ponds. Following the 2004 event, it has become apparent to know the relative tsunami hazard for this coastal Nagapattinam. So, the Tsunami hazard maps are generated using a geographical information systems (GIS approach and the results showed 20.6 per cent, 63.7 per cent and 15.2 per cent of the study area fall under high hazard, medium hazard and low hazard category respectively.

  13. Tsunami early warning in the central Mediterranean: effect of the heterogeneity of the seismic source on the timely detectability of a tsunami

    Armigliato, A.; Tinti, S.; Pagnoni, G.; Zaniboni, F.

    2012-04-01

    The central Mediterranean, and in particular the coasts of southern Italy, is one of the areas with the highest tsunami hazard in Europe. Limiting our attention to earthquake-generated tsunamis, the sources of historical events hitting this region, as well as the largest part of the potential tsunamigenic seismic sources mapped there, are found at very short distances from the closest shorelines, reducing the time needed for the tsunami to attack the coasts themselves to few minutes. This represents by itself an issue from the Tsunami Early Warning (TEW) perspective. To make the overall problem even more intriguing and challenging, it is known that large tsunamigenic earthquakes are generally characterized by highly heterogeneous distributions of the slip on the fault. This feature has been recognized clearly, for instance, in the giant Sumatra 2004, Chile 2010, and Japan 2011 earthquakes (magnitude 9.3, 8.8 and 9.0, respectively), but it was a property also of smaller magnitude events occurred in the region considered in this study, like the 28 December 1908 Messina Straits tsunamigenic earthquake (M=7.2). In terms of tsunami impact, the parent fault slip heterogeneity usually determines a high variability of run-up and inundation on the near-field coasts, which further complicates the TEW problem. The information on the details of the seismic source rupture coming from the seismic (and possibly geodetic) networks, though of primary importance, is typically available after a time that is comparable or larger than the time comprised between the generation and the impact of the tsunami. In the framework of the EU-FP7 TRIDEC Project, we investigate how a proper marine sensors coverage both along the coasts and offshore can help posing constraints on the characteristics of the source in near-real time. Our approach consists in discussing numerical tsunami scenarios in the central Mediterranean involving different slip distributions on the parent fault; the

  14. Tsunami hazard and risk assessment in El Salvador

    González, M.; González-Riancho, P.; Gutiérrez, O. Q.; García-Aguilar, O.; Aniel-Quiroga, I.; Aguirre, I.; Alvarez, J. A.; Gavidia, F.; Jaimes, I.; Larreynaga, J. A.

    2012-04-01

    Tsunamis are relatively infrequent phenomena representing a greater threat than earthquakes, hurricanes and tornadoes, causing the loss of thousands of human lives and extensive damage to coastal infrastructure around the world. Several works have attempted to study these phenomena in order to understand their origin, causes, evolution, consequences, and magnitude of their damages, to finally propose mechanisms to protect coastal societies. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce risk on coastal areas. This work -Tsunami Hazard and Risk Assessment in El Salvador-, funded by AECID during the period 2009-12, examines the state of the art and presents a comprehensive methodology for assessing the risk of tsunamis at any coastal area worldwide and applying it to the coast of El Salvador. The conceptual framework is based on the definition of Risk as the probability of harmful consequences or expected losses resulting from a given hazard to a given element at danger or peril, over a specified time period (European Commission, Schneiderbauer et al., 2004). The HAZARD assessment (Phase I of the project) is based on propagation models for earthquake-generated tsunamis, developed through the characterization of tsunamigenic sources -sismotectonic faults- and other dynamics under study -tsunami waves, sea level, etc.-. The study area is located in a high seismic activity area and has been hit by 11 tsunamis between 1859 and 1997, nine of them recorded in the twentieth century and all generated by earthquakes. Simulations of historical and potential tsunamis with greater or lesser affection to the country's coast have been performed, including distant sources, intermediate and close. Deterministic analyses of the threats under study -coastal flooding- have been carried out, resulting in different hazard maps (maximum wave height elevation, maximum water depth, minimum tsunami

  15. In Brief: Tsunami hits the Solomon Islands

    Zielinski, Sarah

    2007-04-01

    A magnitude 8.1 earthquake shook the Solomon Islands on 1 April at approximately 7:40 A.M. local time. The earthquake generated a tsunami several meters high that struck many of the islands. The earthquake occurred along the boundary of the Pacific plate where the Australia, Woodlark, and Solomon Sea plates subduct beneath it, according to the U.S. Geological Survey's Earthquake Hazards Program. At least 34 people were killed by the tsunami and several dozen more are still missing, according to the National Disaster Council in the Solomon Islands. The NDC estimates that 900-2500 homes were destroyed by the tsunami, displacing about 5500 people.

  16. Variations in population exposure and evacuation potential to multiple tsunami evacuation phases on Alameda and Bay Farm Islands, California

    Peters, J.

    2015-12-01

    Planning for a tsunami evacuation is challenging for California communities due to the variety of earthquake sources that could generate a tsunami. A maximum tsunami inundation zone is currently the basis for all tsunami evacuations in California, although an Evacuation Playbook consisting of specific event-based evacuation phases relating to flooding severity is in development. We chose to investigate the Evacuation Playbook approach for the island community of Alameda, CA since past reports estimated a significant difference in numbers of residents in the maximum inundation zone when compared to an event-based inundation zone. In order to recognize variations in the types of residents and businesses within each phase, a population exposure analysis was conducted for each of the four Alameda evacuation phases. A pedestrian evacuation analysis using an anisotropic, path distance model was also conducted to understand the time it would take for populations to reach high ground by foot. Initial results suggest that the two islands of the City of Alameda have different situations when it comes to the four tsunami evacuation phases. Pedestrian evacuation results suggest that Bay Farm Island would have more success evacuating by vehicle due to limited nearby high ground for pedestrians to reach safety. Therefore, agent-based traffic simulation software was used to model vehicle evacuation off Bay Farm Island. Initial results show that Alameda Island could face challenges evacuating numerous boat docks and a large beach for phases 1 and 2, whereas Bay Farm Island is unaffected at these phases but might be challenged with evacuating by vehicle for phases 3 and maximum due to congestion on limited egress routes. A better understanding of the population exposure within each tsunami Evacuation Playbook phase and the time it would take to evacuate out of each phase by foot or vehicle will help emergency managers implement the evacuation phases during an actual tsunami event.

  17. Mathematics of tsunami: modelling and identification

    Krivorotko, Olga; Kabanikhin, Sergey

    2015-04-01

    singular values of an inverse problem operator which is agreed with the error level in measured data is described and analysed. In numerical experiment we used conjugate gradient method for solving inverse tsunami problems. Gradient methods are based on minimizing the corresponding misfit function. To calculate the gradient of the misfit function, the adjoint problem is solved. The conservative finite-difference schemes for solving the direct and adjoint problems in the approximation of shallow water are constructed. Results of numerical experiments of the tsunami source reconstruction are presented and discussed. We show that using a combination of two types of data allows one to increase the stability and efficiency of tsunami source reconstruction. Non-profit organization WAPMERR (World Agency of Planetary Monitoring and Earthquake Risk Reduction) in collaboration with Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics of SB RAS developed the Integrated Tsunami Research and Information System (ITRIS) to simulate tsunami waves and earthquakes, river course changes, coastal zone floods, and risk estimates for coastal constructions at wave run-ups and earthquakes. The special scientific plug-in components are embedded in a specially developed GIS-type graphic shell for easy data retrieval, visualization and processing. We demonstrate the tsunami simulation plug-in for historical tsunami events (2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, Simushir tsunami 2006 and others). This work was supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation.

  18. Investigation on tsunami effects in the central Adriatic Sea during the last century - a contribution

    Maramai, A.; Graziani, L.; Tinti, S.

    2007-01-01

    In this work we present the result of a study aimed at examining the Italian earthquake sequences that occurred in the area of the central Adriatic sea with the purpose of understanding whether some of them were accompanied by tsunami effects. The motivation for this research was the update and enrichment of the Italian Tsunami Catalogue. The result was that evidence was found for two new cases of earthquake-induced tsunamis: these are the August 1916 Rimini and the October 1930 Ancona events. The bulk of the present research consisted in collecting all the available data on the earthquakes that affected the selected area in the past century and in identifying those potentially capable of generating tsunamis. During the study all the available material was gathered, which includes specific monographs and scientific papers, articles available in contemporary chronicles and in local and national newspapers. The final result of this research will improve our knowledge of the tsunamigenic activity of the central Adriatic sea and contribute to the assessment of the tsunami hazard and risk along these coasts, that especially in the peak season form one of the most densely populated areas of the Italian peninsula with flat and large beaches and water front resorts crowded of tourists.

  19. Vulnerability of the Dover Strait to coseismic tsunami hazards: insights from numerical modelling

    Roger, J.; Gunnell, Y.

    2012-02-01

    On 1580 April 6, a large earthquake shook the eastern English Channel and its shores, with numerous casualties and significant destruction documented. Some reports suggest that it was followed by a tsunami. Meanwhile, earthquake magnitudes of MW= 7 have been deemed possible on intraplate fault systems in neighbouring Benelux. This study aims to determine the possibility of a MW > 5.5 magnitude earthquake generating a tsunami in the Dover Strait, one of the world's busiest seaways. In a series of numerical models focusing on sensitivity analysis, earthquake source parameters for the Dover Strait are constrained by palaeoseismological evidence and historical accounts, producing maps of wave heights and analysis of frequencies based on six strategically located virtual tide gauges. Of potential concern to engineering geologists, a maximum credible scenario is also tested for MW= 6.9. For earthquakes with MW of 5.5, none of the fault models we tested produced a tsunami on neighbouring shores. However, for earthquakes with MW 6.9, both extensional and thrusting events produced tsunami waves with open-water amplitudes of up to 1.5 m, and higher amplitudes might be expected in regions where waves are amplified by regional nearshore bathymetry. Sensitivity to parameter choice is emphasized but a pattern of densely inhabited coastal hotspots liable to tsunami-related damage because of bathymetric forcing factors is consistently obtained.

  20. Investigation on tsunami effects in the central Adriatic Sea during the last century – a contribution

    A. Maramai

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work we present the result of a study aimed at examining the Italian earthquake sequences that occurred in the area of the central Adriatic sea with the purpose of understanding whether some of them were accompanied by tsunami effects. The motivation for this research was the update and enrichment of the Italian Tsunami Catalogue. The result was that evidence was found for two new cases of earthquake-induced tsunamis: these are the August 1916 Rimini and the October 1930 Ancona events. The bulk of the present research consisted in collecting all the available data on the earthquakes that affected the selected area in the past century and in identifying those potentially capable of generating tsunamis. During the study all the available material was gathered, which includes specific monographs and scientific papers, articles available in contemporary chronicles and in local and national newspapers. The final result of this research will improve our knowledge of the tsunamigenic activity of the central Adriatic sea and contribute to the assessment of the tsunami hazard and risk along these coasts, that especially in the peak season form one of the most densely populated areas of the Italian peninsula with flat and large beaches and water front resorts crowded of tourists.

  1. Observations and Numerical Modeling of the 2012 Haida Gwaii Tsunami off the Coast of British Columbia

    Fine, Isaac V.; Cherniawsky, Josef Y.; Thomson, Richard E.; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Krassovski, Maxim V.

    2015-03-01

    A major ( M w 7.7) earthquake occurred on October 28, 2012 along the Queen Charlotte Fault Zone off the west coast of Haida Gwaii (formerly the Queen Charlotte Islands). The earthquake was the second strongest instrumentally recorded earthquake in Canadian history and generated the largest local tsunami ever recorded on the coast of British Columbia. A field survey on the Pacific side of Haida Gwaii revealed maximum runup heights of up to 7.6 m at sites sheltered from storm waves and 13 m in a small inlet that is less sheltered from storms (L eonard and B ednarski 2014). The tsunami was recorded by tide gauges along the coast of British Columbia, by open-ocean bottom pressure sensors of the NEPTUNE facility at Ocean Networks Canada's cabled observatory located seaward of southwestern Vancouver Island, and by several DART stations located in the northeast Pacific. The tsunami observations, in combination with rigorous numerical modeling, enabled us to determine the physical properties of this event and to correct the location of the tsunami source with respect to the initial geophysical estimates. The initial model results were used to specify sites of particular interest for post-tsunami field surveys on the coast of Moresby Island (Haida Gwaii), while field survey observations (L eonard and B ednarski 2014) were used, in turn, to verify the numerical simulations based on the corrected source region.

  2. Quantification of tsunami hazard on Canada's Pacific Coast; implications for risk assessment

    Evans, Stephen G.; Delaney, Keith B.

    2015-04-01

    Our assessment of tsunami hazard on Canada's Pacific Coast (i.e., the coast of British Columbia) begins with a review of the 1964 tsunami generated by The Great Alaska Earthquake (M9.2) that resulted in significant damage to coastal communities and infrastructure. In particular, the tsunami waves swept up inlets on the west coast of Vancouver Island and damaged several communities; Port Alberni suffered upwards of 5M worth of damage. At Port Alberni, the maximum tsunami wave height was estimated at 8.2 m above mean sea level and was recorded on the stream gauge on the Somass River located at about 7 m a.s.l, 6 km upstream from its mouth. The highest wave (9.75 m above tidal datum) was reported from Shields Bay, Graham Island, Queen Charlotte Islands (Haida Gwaii). In addition, the 1964 tsunami was recorded on tide gauges at a number of locations on the BC coast. The 1964 signal and the magnitude and frequency of traces of other historical Pacific tsunamis (both far-field and local) are analysed in the Tofino tide gauge records and compared to tsunami traces in other tide gauges in the Pacific Basin (e.g., Miyako, Japan). Together with a review of the geological evidence for tsunami occurrence along Vancouver Island's west coast, we use this tide gauge data to develop a quantitative framework for tsunami hazard on Canada's Pacific coast. In larger time scales, tsunamis are a major component of the hazard from Cascadia megathrust events. From sedimentological evidence and seismological considerations, the recurrence interval of megathrust events on the Cascadia Subduction Zone has been estimated by others at roughly 500 years. We assume that the hazard associated with a high-magnitude destructive tsunami thus has an annual frequency of roughly 1/500. Compared to other major natural hazards in western Canada this represents a very high annual probability of potentially destructive hazard that, in some coastal communities, translates into high levels of local risk

  3. Comparing source inversion techniques for GPS-based local tsunami forecasting: A case study for the April 2014 M8.1 Iquique, Chile, earthquake

    Chen, Kejie; Babeyko, Andrey; Hoechner, Andreas; Ge, Maorong

    2016-04-01

    Real-time GPS is nowadays considered as a valuable component of next generation near-field tsunami early warning systems able to provide fast and reliable source parameters. Looking for optimal methodologies and assessing corresponding uncertainties becomes an important task. We take the opportunity and consider the 2014 Pisagua event as a case study to explore tsunami forecast uncertainty related to the GPS-based source inversion. We intentionally neglect all other sources of uncertainty (observation set, signal processing, wave simulation, etc.) and exclusively assess the effect of inversion technique. In particular, we compare three end-member methods: (1) point-source fastCMT (centroid moment tensor), (2) distributed slip along predefined plate interface, and (3) unconstrained inversion into a single uniform slip finite fault. The three methods provide significantly different far-field tsunami forecast but show surprisingly similar tsunami predictions in the near field.

  4. SAGE CALCULATIONS OF THE TSUNAMI THREAT FROM LA PALMA

    Galen Gisler

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available With the LANL multiphysics hydrocode SAGE, we have performed several two-dimensional calculations and one three-dimensional calculation using the full Navier-Stokes equations, of a hypothetical landslide resembling the event posited by Ward and Day (2001, a lateral flank collapse of the Cumbre Vieja Volcano on La Palma that would produce a tsunami. The SAGE code has previously been used to model the Lituya Bay landslide-generated tsunami (Mader & Gittings, 2002, and has also been used to examine tsunami generation by asteroid impacts (Gisler, Weaver, Mader, & Gittings, 2003. This code uses continuous adaptive mesh refinement to focus computing resources where they are needed most, and accurate equations of state for water, air, and rock. We find that while high-amplitude waves are produced that would be highly dangerous to nearby communities (in the Canary Islands, and the shores of Morocco, Spain, and Portugal, the wavelengths and periods of these waves are relatively short, and they will not propagate efficiently over long distances.

  5. Two new ESSEA Modules: (1) Pacific Influences on Climatic Change and Variability and (2) Assessment of Tsunami Hazards

    Ladochy, S.; Ramirez, P.; Patzert, W. C.

    2008-12-01

    The CSULA Departments of Geography and Geological Sciences, in cooperation with the Charter College of Education at CSULA, propose to introduce the Earth System Science Education Alliance (ESSEA) On-line course for middle school teachers as a section of our undergraduate pre-service teacher course, PSCI 183: Earth Science for Elementary Teachers. Physical Science 183 was proposed as an activities and inquiry- based course for students needing an earth science foundation, but in an active learning environment. We have developed two ESSEA education modules centered on climate change and natural variability and on tsunami. The climate change module is based on a scenario in which students are part of a climate change advisory committee charged with providing the scientific framework for climate change. Students learn to distinguish between natural variability in the Pacific Ocean and trends in global climate change. Components of the module focus on interpreting trends in temperature, precipitation, and sea surface temperatures and heights using datasets using NOAA websites. Quantitative analysis of the trends reveals patterns related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, El Niño/La Niña events, and global climate change. Identification of patterns and trends facilitate forecasting of southern California temperature and precipitation and allow policy development addressing the changing climate. Tsunami are repetitive, potentially destructive natural hazards impacting people across the globe. The tsunami module asks student to provide representatives of western US states with an assessment of tsunami risks. Through the exercise students learn what tsunami are, the tectonic connection to tsunami generation, tsunami wave characteristics and strategies for the development of a tsunami warning system.

  6. Lessons from the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku Tsunamis, Developments, and Future Directions

    Satake, K.

    2014-12-01

    The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the worst tsunami disaster in history with 230,000 casualties, was generated by the largest earthquake (M 9.1) since the 1960 Chilean and 1964 Alaskan earthquakes, but such a giant earthquake was not anticipated in the Indian Ocean. Besides its size, lack of tsunami warning systems in the Indian Ocean and lack of knowledge about tsunami among the coastal residents enhanced the tsunami disaster, while scientific knowledge and technology for far-field tsunami warning system existed. Developments since 2004 include paleo-tsunami studies, global tsunami observations and tsunami warning and hazard mitigation systems. Tsunami deposits found in Indonesia, Thailand and India show that giant tsunamis similar to the 2004 tsunami occurred in the past. Deep ocean pressure gauges (DART system), GPS buoys and coastal tide gauges have been installed with real-time data-telemetry capability in Indian Ocean as well as the Pacific Ocean. Three regional tsunami warning centers are now in operation in India, Indonesia and Australia. The 2011 Tohoku earthquake was also generated by a giant (M 9.0) earthquake. While such an earthquake was unexpected in Japan, similar tsunamis occurred in the past and caused damage on Sanriku coast and Sendai plain. The tsunami warning, issued 3 min after the earthquake, saved many lives yet caused significant (~19,000) fatalities, partly because of underestimation of earthquake size. The insufficient tsunami hazard assessment caused the significant number of casualties and the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. Existed coastal sea walls might have given inappropriate belief to coastal residents that they were protected from tsunami disaster. Scientific and technological developments needed for the future include estimation of probable maximum earthquake size for tsunami hazard assessment, and real-time estimation of earthquake and tsunami size based on seismic and sea level measurements. In addition, limitation of

  7. The First Real-Time Tsunami Animation

    Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; McCreery, C.; Weinstein, S.; Ward, B.

    2014-12-01

    For the first time a U.S. tsunami warning center created and issued a tsunami forecast model animation while the tsunami was still crossing an ocean. Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) scientists had predicted they would have this ability (Becker et al., 2012) with their RIFT forecast model (Wang et al., 2009) by using rapidly-determined W-phase centroid-moment tensor earthquake focal mechanisms as tsunami sources in the RIFT model (Wang et al., 2012). PTWC then acquired its own YouTube channel in 2013 for its outreach efforts that showed animations of historic tsunamis (Becker et al., 2013), but could also be a platform for sharing future tsunami animations. The 8.2 Mw earthquake of 1 April 2014 prompted PTWC to issue official warnings for a dangerous tsunami in Chile, Peru and Ecuador. PTWC ended these warnings five hours later, then issued its new tsunami marine hazard product (i.e., no coastal evacuations) for the State of Hawaii. With the international warning canceled but with a domestic hazard still present PTWC generated a forecast model animation and uploaded it to its YouTube channel six hours before the arrival of the first waves in Hawaii. PTWC also gave copies of this animation to television reporters who in turn passed it on to their national broadcast networks. PTWC then created a version for NOAA's Science on a Sphere system so it could be shown on these exhibits as the tsunami was still crossing the Pacific Ocean. While it is difficult to determine how many people saw this animation since local, national, and international news networks showed it in their broadcasts, PTWC's YouTube channel provides some statistics. As of 1 August 2014 this animation has garnered more than 650,000 views. Previous animations, typically released during significant anniversaries, rarely get more than 10,000 views, and even then only when external websites share them. Clearly there is a high demand for a tsunami graphic that shows both the speed and the severity of a

  8. A culture of tsunami preparedness and applying knowledge from recent tsunamis affecting California

    Miller, K. M.; Wilson, R. I.

    2012-12-01

    It is the mission of the California Tsunami Program to ensure public safety by protecting lives and property before, during, and after a potentially destructive or damaging tsunami. In order to achieve this goal, the state has sought first to use finite funding resources to identify and quantify the tsunami hazard using the best available scientific expertise, modeling, data, mapping, and methods at its disposal. Secondly, it has been vital to accurately inform the emergency response community of the nature of the threat by defining inundation zones prior to a tsunami event and leveraging technical expertise during ongoing tsunami alert notifications (specifically incoming wave heights, arrival times, and the dangers of strong currents). State scientists and emergency managers have been able to learn and apply both scientific and emergency response lessons from recent, distant-source tsunamis affecting coastal California (from Samoa in 2009, Chile in 2010, and Japan in 2011). Emergency managers must understand and plan in advance for specific actions and protocols for each alert notification level provided by the NOAA/NWS West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center. Finally the state program has provided education and outreach information via a multitude of delivery methods, activities, and end products while keeping the message simple, consistent, and focused. The goal is a culture of preparedness and understanding of what to do in the face of a tsunami by residents, visitors, and responsible government officials. We provide an update of results and findings made by the state program with support of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program through important collaboration with other U.S. States, Territories and agencies. In 2009 the California Emergency Management Agency (CalEMA) and the California Geological Survey (CGS) completed tsunami inundation modeling and mapping for all low-lying, populated coastal areas of California to assist local jurisdictions on

  9. Confluent gamma density in modelling tsunami interevent times

    Naiju M. Thomas

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available We consider here a probability model which associates the usual gamma form with a confluent hypergeometric series. The probability model is termed as confluent gamma density. Some distributional properties of this model are derived. A graphical representation of the model for the varying values of parameter is illustrated. The model thrusts into an interesting application which relates it with tsunami event modelling. A study on tsunami occurrence is essential since it happens frequently at different parts of the world. Here we give an overall view about tsunamis and analyze tsunami interevent times.

  10. Historical tsunami database for France and its overseas territories

    Lambert, J.; M. Terrier

    2011-01-01

    A search and analysis of a large number of historical documents has made it possible: (i) to discover so-far unknown tsunamis that have hit the French coasts during the last centuries, and (ii) conversely, to disprove the tsunami nature of several events referred to in recent catalogues. This information has been structured into a database and also made available as a website (tsunamis.f/" target="_blank">http://www.tsunamis.fr) that is accessible in French,...

  11. Towards a certification process for tsunami early warning systems

    Löwe, Peter; Wächter, Jochen; Hammitzsch, Martin

    2013-04-01

    The natural disaster of the Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 was followed by an information catastrophe. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages in a proven workflow. A second challenge stems from the main objective of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC) Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from individual sensors, to Warning Centers within their particular end-to-end Warning System Environments, and up to federated Systems of Tsunami Warning Systems has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CeGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already, being the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS). This activity is continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7

  12. Application of a Tsunami Warning Message Metric to refine NOAA NWS Tsunami Warning Messages

    Gregg, C. E.; Johnston, D.; Sorensen, J.; Whitmore, P.

    2013-12-01

    In 2010, the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) funded a three year project to integrate social science into their Tsunami Program. One of three primary requirements of the grant was to make improvements to tsunami warning messages of the NWS' two Tsunami Warning Centers- the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) in Palmer, Alaska and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) in Ewa Beach, Hawaii. We conducted focus group meetings with a purposive sample of local, state and Federal stakeholders and emergency managers in six states (AK, WA, OR, CA, HI and NC) and two US Territories (US Virgin Islands and American Samoa) to qualitatively asses information needs in tsunami warning messages using WCATWC tsunami messages for the March 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami event. We also reviewed research literature on behavioral response to warnings to develop a tsunami warning message metric that could be used to guide revisions to tsunami warning messages of both warning centers. The message metric is divided into categories of Message Content, Style, Order and Formatting and Receiver Characteristics. A message is evaluated by cross-referencing the message with the operational definitions of metric factors. Findings are then used to guide revisions of the message until the characteristics of each factor are met. Using findings from this project and findings from a parallel NWS Warning Tiger Team study led by T. Nicolini, the WCATWC implemented the first of two phases of revisions to their warning messages in November 2012. A second phase of additional changes, which will fully implement the redesign of messages based on the metric, is in progress. The resulting messages will reflect current state-of-the-art knowledge on warning message effectiveness. Here we present the message metric; evidence-based rational for message factors; and examples of previous, existing and proposed messages.

  13. A Unified Simulation Framework for Megathrust Rupture Dynamics and Tsunamis

    Dunham, E. M.; Lotto, G. C.; Kozdon, J. E.

    2014-12-01

    Many earthquakes, including megathrust events in subduction zones, occur offshore. In addition to seismic waves, such earthquakes also generate tsunamis. We present a methodology for simultaneously investigating earthquake rupture dynamics and tsunamigenesis, based on solution of the elastic and acoustic wave equations, in the solid and fluid portions of the domain, respectively. Surface gravity waves or tsunamis emerge naturally in such a description when gravitational restoring forces are properly taken into account. In our approach, we adopt an Eulerian description of the ocean and within it solve for particle velocities and the perturbation in pressure, Δp, about an initial hydrostatic state. The key step is enforcing the traction-free boundary condition on the moving ocean surface. We linearize this boundary condition, in order to apply it on the initial surface, and express it as Δp-ρgη=0, where -ρg is the initial hydrostatic gradient in pressure and η is the sea surface uplift (obtained, to first order, by integrating vertical particle velocity on the initial ocean surface). We show that this is the only place one needs to account for gravity. Additional terms in the momentum balance and linearized equation of state describing advection of pressure and density gradients can be included to study internal gravity waves within the ocean, but these can be safely neglected for problems of interest to us. We present a range of simulations employing this new methodology. These include test problems used to verify the accuracy of the method for modeling seismic, ocean acoustic, and tsunami waves, as well as more detailed models of megathrust ruptures. Our present work is focused on tsunami generation in models with variable bathymetry, where previous studies have raised questions regarding how horizontal displacement of a sloping seafloor excites tsunamis. Our approach rigorously accounts for time-dependent seafloor motion, horizontal momentum transfer, and

  14. Flux Transfer Events: 1. generation mechanism for strong southward IMF

    J. Raeder

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available We use a global numerical model of the interaction of the solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field with Earth's magnetosphere to study the formation process of Flux Transfer Events (FTEs during strong southward IMF. We find that: (i The model produces essentially all observational features expected for FTEs, in particular the bipolar signature of the magnetic field BN component, the correct polarity, duration, and intermittency of that bipolar signature, strong core fields and enhanced core pressure, and flow enhancements; (ii FTEs only develop for large dipole tilt whereas in the case of no dipole tilt steady magnetic reconnection occurs at the dayside magnetopause; (iii the basic process by which FTEs are produced is the sequential generation of new X-lines which makes dayside reconnection inherently time dependent and leads to a modified form of dual or multiple X-line reconnection; (iv the FTE generation process in this model is not dependent on specific assumptions about microscopic processes; (v the average period of FTEs can be explained by simple geometric arguments involving magnetosheath convection; (vi FTEs do not develop in the model if the numerical resolution is too coarse leading to too much numerical diffusion; and (vii FTEs for nearly southward IMF and large dipole tilt, i.e., near solstice, should only develop in the winter hemisphere, which provides a testable prediction of seasonal modulation. The semiannual modulation of intermittent FTE reconnection versus steady reconnection is also expected to modulate magnetospheric and ionospheric convection and may thus contribute to the semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity.

  15. Art Therapy with Child Tsunami Survivors in Sri Lanka

    Chilcote, Rebekah L.

    2007-01-01

    This paper details art therapy with children affected by the December 2004 tsunami in Sri Lanka. Over 30,000 Sri Lankans lost their lives when the tsunami decimated coastal areas. The child survivors witnessed horrific traumatic events and the loss of loved ones, but had not been given opportunity to express their grief and pain. A 4-week art…

  16. Event generator analysis for singly strange particle production data

    We have used the event generator LUCIAE to analyze the data of singly strange particle production in pp, pA, and AA reactions at 200A GeV and compared them with the corresponding experimental data and theoretical results of HIJING, VENUS, and RQMD. The results indicate that for reproducing the NA35 data of AA reactions it requires a somewhat larger s quark suppression factor (s=0.3) and shorter formation time (τ=1 fm/c) of produced particles than for reproducing the experimental data of pp and pA (s=0.2 and τ=1.5 fm/c). This might be understood intuitively from the relationship between the effective string tension and the violence of collision. However, the NA36 data of the negative multiplicity dependence of Λ in S + Pb reaction at 200 A GeV could not be well reproduced by LUCIAE, VENUS, or RQMD, and the NA36 data prefers model parameters of s=0.2 and τ=1.5 fm/c especially, this seems hard to understand and needs further studies. From comparing the NA35 data of the rapidity distribution of Λ in S + Ag reactions to the corresponding results of LUCIAE one knows that the effect of varying the s quark suppression factor from 0.2 to 0.3 is smaller than the effect of rescattering with respect to strangeness production. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

  17. A new version of the event generator Sibyll

    Riehn, Felix; Fedynitch, Anatoli; Gaisser, Thomas K; Stanev, Todor

    2015-01-01

    The event generator Sibyll can be used for the simulation of hadronic multiparticle production up to the highest cosmic ray energies. It is optimized for providing an economic description of those aspects of the expected hadronic final states that are needed for the calculation of air showers and atmospheric lepton fluxes. New measurements from fixed target and collider experiments, in particular those at LHC, allow us to test the predictive power of the model version 2.1, which was released more than 10 years ago, and also to identify shortcomings. Based on a detailed comparison of the model predictions with the new data we revisit model assumptions and approximations to obtain an improved version of the interaction model. In addition a phenomenological model for the production of charm particles is implemented as needed for the calculation of prompt lepton fluxes in the energy range of the astrophysical neutrinos recently discovered by IceCube. After giving an overview of the new ideas implemented in Sibyll...

  18. Molecular Characterization of Transgenic Events Using Next Generation Sequencing Approach

    Mammadov, Jafar; Ye, Liang; Soe, Khaing; Richey, Kimberly; Cruse, James; Zhuang, Meibao; Gao, Zhifang; Evans, Clive; Rounsley, Steve; Kumpatla, Siva P.

    2016-01-01

    Demand for the commercial use of genetically modified (GM) crops has been increasing in light of the projected growth of world population to nine billion by 2050. A prerequisite of paramount importance for regulatory submissions is the rigorous safety assessment of GM crops. One of the components of safety assessment is molecular characterization at DNA level which helps to determine the copy number, integrity and stability of a transgene; characterize the integration site within a host genome; and confirm the absence of vector DNA. Historically, molecular characterization has been carried out using Southern blot analysis coupled with Sanger sequencing. While this is a robust approach to characterize the transgenic crops, it is both time- and resource-consuming. The emergence of next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies has provided highly sensitive and cost- and labor-effective alternative for molecular characterization compared to traditional Southern blot analysis. Herein, we have demonstrated the successful application of both whole genome sequencing and target capture sequencing approaches for the characterization of single and stacked transgenic events and compared the results and inferences with traditional method with respect to key criteria required for regulatory submissions. PMID:26908260

  19. Molecular Characterization of Transgenic Events Using Next Generation Sequencing Approach.

    Guttikonda, Satish K; Marri, Pradeep; Mammadov, Jafar; Ye, Liang; Soe, Khaing; Richey, Kimberly; Cruse, James; Zhuang, Meibao; Gao, Zhifang; Evans, Clive; Rounsley, Steve; Kumpatla, Siva P

    2016-01-01

    Demand for the commercial use of genetically modified (GM) crops has been increasing in light of the projected growth of world population to nine billion by 2050. A prerequisite of paramount importance for regulatory submissions is the rigorous safety assessment of GM crops. One of the components of safety assessment is molecular characterization at DNA level which helps to determine the copy number, integrity and stability of a transgene; characterize the integration site within a host genome; and confirm the absence of vector DNA. Historically, molecular characterization has been carried out using Southern blot analysis coupled with Sanger sequencing. While this is a robust approach to characterize the transgenic crops, it is both time- and resource-consuming. The emergence of next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies has provided highly sensitive and cost- and labor-effective alternative for molecular characterization compared to traditional Southern blot analysis. Herein, we have demonstrated the successful application of both whole genome sequencing and target capture sequencing approaches for the characterization of single and stacked transgenic events and compared the results and inferences with traditional method with respect to key criteria required for regulatory submissions. PMID:26908260

  20. Tsunami hazard assessment of Guadeloupe Island (F.W.I.) related to a megathrust rupture on the Lesser Antilles subduction interface

    Roger, J.; Dudon, B.; Zahibo, N.

    2013-05-01

    The French Caribbean Archipelago of Guadeloupe is located over the Lesser Antilles active subduction zone, where a handful of earthquakes have reached magnitudes of Mw = 7.0 (moment magnitude) and more. According to available catalogs, these earthquakes have been able to trigger devastating tsunamis, either directly by the shake or indirectly by induced landslides. The Guadeloupe Archipelago is known to have suffered from several violent earthquakes, including the 1843 Mw ~ 8.5 megathrust event. In this study, we discuss the potential impact of a tsunami generation scenario of a Mw = 8.5 rupture at the subduction interface using numerical modeling and high resolution bathymetric data within the framework of tsunami hazard assessment for Guadeloupe. Despite the fact that the mystery remains unresolved concerning the lack of historical tsunami data for the 1843 event, modeling results show that the tsunami impact is not uniformly distributed in the whole archipelago and could show important maximum wave heights. This is easily explained by the bathymetry and the presence of several islands around the main island leading to resonance phenomena, and because of the existence of a fringing coral reef partially surrounding Guadeloupe Island and its satellites. We then discuss the role of source parameters, the arrival times and the protective role of fringing coral reefs surrounding the islands, using tsunami modeling applied on two Guadeloupian touristic coastal places: Sainte-Anne and Saint-François.

  1. Tsunami data assimilation of Cascadia seafloor pressure gauge records from the 2012 Haida Gwaii earthquake

    Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Sheehan, Anne F.; Satake, Kenji; Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Mulia, Iyan Eka; Maeda, Takuto

    2016-05-01

    We use tsunami waveforms recorded on a dense array of seafloor pressure gauges offshore Oregon and California from the 2012 Haida Gwaii, Canada, earthquake to simulate the performance of two different real-time tsunami-forecasting methods. In the first method, the tsunami source is first estimated by inversion of recorded tsunami waveforms. In the second method, the array data are assimilated to reproduce tsunami wavefields. These estimates can be used for forecasting tsunami on the coast. The dense seafloor array provides critical data for both methods to produce timeliness (>30 min lead time) and accuracy in both timing and amplitude (>94% confidence) tsunami forecasts. Real-time tsunami data on dense arrays and data assimilation can be tested as a possible new generation tsunami warning system.

  2. Testing Numerical Tsunami Simulations Against the Inland Extents of Prehistoric Cascadia Tsunami Deposits at Cannon Beach, Oregon

    Witter, R. C.; Zhang, Y. J.; Priest, G. R.

    2007-12-01

    Cannon Beach, Oregon faces extreme flooding hazards from future tsunamis generated by seafloor deformation during Cascadia megathrust earthquakes. Trans-Pacific tsunamis also threaten the City as exemplified by the 1964 Alaska tsunami that caused $230,000 of damage. Field mapping of prehistoric tsunami deposits and historical accounts of the 1964 tsunami are used to delineate the inland extents of past tsunamis for comparison with simulations performed with hydrodynamic models. The comparisons offer an empirical test of the credibility of numerical tsunami simulations used to develop evacuation routes and emergency response tactics for coastal communities in Oregon. Although the mapped extents of tsunami deposits can only define minimum estimates of runup and inundation, their inland limits can be used to identify simulations of tsunami inundation that underestimate real-world conditions, while increasing confidence in simulated inundations that meet or surpass the distribution of deposits left by tsunamis. At least three Cascadia tsunamis flooded the lower 1.4-1.6 km of the Ecola Creek valley within the last 1000 years. Estimates of the minimum inundation come from the mapped extents of three sand layers, all of which satisfy 8-9 out of 10 criteria that favor a tsunami origin. The sand layers exhibit physical attributes of beach sand, the presence of fossil brackish-marine diatoms, sharp or eroded lower contacts, landward-thinning trends, and 14C ages that are consistent with regional Cascadia earthquake and tsunami chronologies. The youngest deposit records flooding by the AD 1700 Cascadia tsunami. Age ranges for two earlier tsunamis span 520-800 and 910-980 cal yr BP. A fourth sand layer deposited by a large flood of Ecola Creek about 1.3 ka was distinguished from the three younger tsunami deposits because it shares attributes of sand from the active creek channel. The deposit lacks a landward-thinning trend and its distribution along the central axis of the

  3. TIDE-TSUNAMI INTERACTIONS

    Zygmunt Kowalik

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we investigate important dynamics defining tsunami enhancement in the coastal regions and related to interaction with tides. Observations and computations of the Indian Ocean Tsunami usually show amplifications of the tsunami in the near-shore regions due to water shoaling. Additionally, numerous observations depicted quite long ringing of tsunami oscillations in the coastal regions, suggesting either local resonance or the local trapping of the tsunami energy. In the real ocean, the short-period tsunami wave rides on the longer-period tides. The question is whether these two waves can be superposed linearly for the purpose of determining the resulting sea surface height (SSH or rather in the shallow water they interact nonlinearly, enhancing/reducing the total sea level and currents. Since the near–shore bathymetry is important for the run-up computation, Weisz and Winter (2005 demonstrated that the changes of depth caused by tides should not be neglected in tsunami run-up considerations. On the other hand, we hypothesize that much more significant effect of the tsunami-tide interaction should be observed through the tidal and tsunami currents. In order to test this hypothesis we apply a simple set of 1-D equations of motion and continuity to demonstrate the dynamics of tsunami and tide interaction in the vicinity of the shelf break for two coastal domains: shallow waters of an elongated inlet and narrow shelf typical for deep waters of the Gulf of Alaska.

  4. Economic impacts of the SAFRR tsunami scenario in California: Chapter H in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Wein, Anne; Rose, Adam; Sue Wing, Ian; Wei, Dan

    2013-01-01

    to peak at ‒1.63 percent in the second quarter after the event and stagnate for the rest of the year. The majority of the economic impacts are attributed to the tsunami rather than the earthquake. The hardest hit sectors are identified as agriculture, fisheries, manufacturing, retail, and tourism. Other relevant studies have focused on the economic impacts of threats that close POLA and POLB. We find one analysis of a potential tsunami scenario affecting the California economy through disruption of port operations. Borrero and others (2005) estimated economic impacts to the southern California economy of $7 to $40 billion from a locally generated tsunami that closes POLA and POLB for as much as 1 year. There have also been several studies of the economic impacts of non-tsunami events affecting POLA and POLB. Analyses of an 11-day labor lockout produced a range of estimated national impacts of as much as $1.94 billion/day (Park and others 2008, Martin Associates 2001). Examination of a potential terrorist attack that closes the San Pedro port for 1 month yielded a $29 billion impact to the California economy (Park, 2008). These studies have reinforced the importance of recognizing economic resilience in economic impact analyses. Hall (2004) criticized the upper-end estimate of national economic impacts from the labor lockout based on model shortcomings that neglected short-run substitution behavior and fixed the long-run economic behaviors. Following the 2011 Japanese tsunami, resilience was observed in the forms of rapid recovery of manufacturing sectors, energy conservation, and insurance (Kajitani and others, 2013).

  5. Analysis of Tsunami Evacuation Issues Using Agent Based Modeling. A Case Study of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami in Yuriage, Natori.

    Mas, E.; Takagi, H.; Adriano, B.; Hayashi, S.; Koshimura, S.

    2014-12-01

    The 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami reminded that nature can exceed structural countermeasures like seawalls, breakwaters or tsunami gates. In such situations it is a challenging task for people to find nearby haven. This event, as many others before, confirmed the importance of early evacuation, tsunami awareness and the need for developing much more resilient communities with effective evacuation plans. To support reconstruction activities and efforts on developing resilient communities in areas at risk, tsunami evacuation simulation can be applied to tsunami mitigation and evacuation planning. In this study, using the compiled information related to the evacuation behavior at Yuriage in Natori during the 2011 tsunami, we simulated the evacuation process and explored the reasons for the large number of fatalities in the area. It was found that residents did evacuate to nearby shelter areas, however after the tsunami warning was increased some evacuees decided to conduct a second step evacuation to a far inland shelter. Simulation results show the consequences of such decision and the outcomes when a second evacuation would not have been performed. The actual reported number of fatalities in the event and the results from simulation are compared to verify the model. The case study shows the contribution of tsunami evacuation models as tools to be applied for the analysis of evacuees' decisions and the related outcomes. In addition, future evacuation plans and activities for reconstruction process and urban planning can be supported by the results provided from this kind of tsunami evacuation models.

  6. Concept study of radar sensors for near-field tsunami early warning

    T. Börner

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Off-shore detection of tsunami waves is a critical component of an effective tsunami early warning system (TEWS. Even more critical is the off-shore detection of local tsunamis, namely tsunamis that strike coastal areas within minutes after generation. In this paper we propose new concepts for near-field tsunami early detection, based on innovative and up-to-date microwave remote sensing techniques. We particularly introduce the NESTRAD (NEar-Space Tsunami RADar concept, which consists of a real aperture radar accommodated inside a stationary stratospheric airship providing continuous monitoring of tsunamigenic oceanic trenches.

  7. An evaluation of tsunami hazard using Bayesian approach in the Indian Ocean

    Yadav, R. B. S.; Tsapanos, T. M.; Tripathi, J. N.; Chopra, S.

    2013-05-01

    The present study deals with the estimation of tsunami hazard parameters (maximum regional tsunami intensity Imax, slope β-value (where, β = b / log10e) of tsunami intensity-frequency relationship and tsunami activity rate λ) in the whole Indian Ocean as well as Andaman-Sumatra-Java (ASJ) region using Bayesian statistics technique. For this purpose a reliable, homogeneous and complete tsunami catalog during the period 1797 to 2006 with tsunami intensities (Soloviev-Imamura intensity scale) I ≥ 2.0, having average wave heights H ≥ 2.83 m, is utilized. The slope (b-value) of linear tsunami intensity-frequency relationship (Log10N = a - b ∗ I) of G-R type for observed tsunami data with intensities I ≥ 2.0 is calculated as 0.41. The applied method of Bayesian statistics follow three assumptions viz. Poissonian character of tsunami events, existence of the frequency-intensity relation of G-R type with a cut-off maximum value of tsunami intensities and catalog contains rather sizable events. In this study, the maximum regional tsunami intensity (Imax) has been estimated as 5.39 ± 0.30 and 5.41 ± 0.31 for the whole Indian Ocean and ASJ regions, respectively, which is reasonably comparable to the maximum observed tsunami intensity of 5.0 for August 27, 1883 Indonesia tsunami. The slope β-value of tsunami intensity-frequency relationship is calculated as 0.81 for both the Indian Ocean and ASJ regions by Bayesian statistics theory. We have also estimated quantiles of true and apparent tsunami intensities for future time intervals of 20, 30, 40 and 50 years with confidence limits for probability levels of 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90% and 95% in the Indian Ocean along with ASJ region. It is observed that the differences between true and apparent quantiles of tsunami intensities are negligible revealing that a good quality of tsunami data is used in the study. The results estimated in the present study have potential useful implications in the probabilistic tsunami

  8. Tsunami Prediction and Earthquake Parameters Estimation in the Red Sea

    Sawlan, Zaid A

    2012-12-01

    Tsunami concerns have increased in the world after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. Consequently, tsunami models have been developed rapidly in the last few years. One of the advanced tsunami models is the GeoClaw tsunami model introduced by LeVeque (2011). This model is adaptive and consistent. Because of different sources of uncertainties in the model, observations are needed to improve model prediction through a data assimilation framework. Model inputs are earthquake parameters and topography. This thesis introduces a real-time tsunami forecasting method that combines tsunami model with observations using a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble Kalman smoother. The filter is used for state prediction while the smoother operates smoothing to estimate the earthquake parameters. This method reduces the error produced by uncertain inputs. In addition, state-parameter EnKF is implemented to estimate earthquake parameters. Although number of observations is small, estimated parameters generates a better tsunami prediction than the model. Methods and results of prediction experiments in the Red Sea are presented and the prospect of developing an operational tsunami prediction system in the Red Sea is discussed.

  9. Recent improvements in earthquake and tsunami monitoring in the Caribbean

    Gee, L.; Green, D.; McNamara, D.; Whitmore, P.; Weaver, J.; Huang, P.; Benz, H.

    2007-12-01

    Orleans, LA; and Bermuda as part of the U.S. tsunami warning system expansion. DART systems consist of an anchored seafloor pressure recorder (BPR) and a companion moored surface buoy for real-time communications. The new stations are a second-generation design (DART II) equipped with two- way satellite communications that allow NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers to set stations in event mode in anticipation of possible tsunamis or retrieve the high-resolution (15-s intervals) data in one-hour blocks for detailed analysis. Combined with development of sophisticated wave propagation and site-specific inundation models, the DART data are being used to forecast wave heights for at-risk coastal communities. NOAA expects to deploy a total of 39 DART II buoy stations by 2008 (32 in the Pacific and 7 in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf regions). The seismic and DART networks are two components in a comprehensive and fully-operational global observing system to detect and warn the public of earthquake and tsunami threats. NOAA and USGS are working together to make important strides in enhancing communication networks so residents and visitors can receive earthquake and tsunami watches and warnings around the clock.

  10. Coupling Efforts to the Accurate and Efficient Tsunami Modelling System

    Son, S.

    2015-12-01

    In the present study, we couple two different types of tsunami models, i.e., nondispersive shallow water model of characteristic form(MOST ver.4) and dispersive Boussinesq model of non-characteristic form(Son et al. (2011)) in an attempt to improve modelling accuracy and efficiency. Since each model deals with different type of primary variables, additional care on matching boundary condition is required. Using an absorbing-generating boundary condition developed by Van Dongeren and Svendsen(1997), model coupling and integration is achieved. Characteristic variables(i.e., Riemann invariants) in MOST are converted to non-characteristic variables for Boussinesq solver without any loss of physical consistency. Established modelling system has been validated through typical test problems to realistic tsunami events. Simulated results reveal good performance of developed modelling system. Since coupled modelling system provides advantageous flexibility feature during implementation, great efficiencies and accuracies are expected to be gained through spot-focusing application of Boussinesq model inside the entire domain of tsunami propagation.

  11. Simulation systems for tsunami wave propagation forecasting within the French tsunami warning center

    Gailler, A.; Hébert, H.; Loevenbruck, A.; Hernandez, B.

    2013-10-01

    A model-based tsunami prediction system has been developed as part of the French Tsunami Warning Center (operational since 1 July 2012). It involves a precomputed unit source functions database (i.e., a number of tsunami model runs that are calculated ahead of time and stored). For the Mediterranean basin, the faults of the unit functions are placed adjacent to each other, following the discretization of the main seismogenic faults. An automated composite scenarios calculation tool is implemented to allow the simulation of any tsunami propagation scenario (i.e., of any seismic moment). Uncertainty on the magnitude of the detected event and inaccuracy of the epicenter location are taken into account in the composite scenarios calculation. Together with this forecasting system, another operational tool based on real time computing is implemented as part of the French Tsunami Warning Center. This second tsunami simulation tool takes advantage of multiprocessor approaches and more realistic seismological parameters, once the focal mechanism is established. Three examples of historical earthquakes are presented, providing warning refinement compared to the rough tsunami risk map given by the model-based decision matrix.

  12. Tsunami Warning Services for the U.S. and Canadian Atlantic Coasts

    Whitmore, P. M.; Knight, W.

    2008-12-01

    In January 2005, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) developed a tsunami warning program for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts. Within a year, this program extended further to the Atlantic coast of Canada and the Caribbean Sea. Warning services are provided to U.S. and Canadian coasts (including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands) by the NOAA/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) while the NOAA/Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) provides services for non-U.S. entities in the Caribbean Basin. The Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) is also an active partner in the Caribbean Basin warning system. While the nature of the tsunami threat in the Atlantic Basin is different than in the Pacific, the warning system philosophy is similar. That is, initial messages are based strictly on seismic data so that information is provided to those at greatest risk as fast as possible while supplementary messages are refined with sea level observations and forecasts when possible. The Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) acquire regional seismic data through many agencies, such as the United States Geological Survey, Earthquakes Canada, regional seismic networks, and the PRSN. Seismic data quantity and quality are generally sufficient throughout most of the Atlantic area-of-responsibility to issue initial information within five minutes of origin time. Sea level data are mainly provided by the NOAA/National Ocean Service. Coastal tide gage coverage is generally denser along the Atlantic coast than in the Pacific. Seven deep ocean pressure sensors (DARTs), operated by the National Weather Service (NWS) National Data Buoy Center, are located in the Atlantic Basin (5 in the Atlantic Ocean, 1 in the Caribbean, and 1 in the Gulf of Mexico). The DARTs provide TWCs with the means to verify tsunami generation in the Atlantic and provide critical data with which to calibrate forecast models. Tsunami warning response criteria in the Atlantic Basin

  13. Toward tsunami early warning system in Indonesia by using rapid rupture durations estimation

    Madlazim [Physics Department, Faculty Mathematics and Sciences of Surabaya State University (UNESA) Jl. Ketintang, Surabaya 60231 (Indonesia)

    2012-06-20

    Indonesia has Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (Ina-TEWS) since 2008. The Ina-TEWS has used automatic processing on hypocenter; Mwp, Mw (mB) and Mj. If earthquake occurred in Ocean, depth < 70 km and magnitude > 7, then Ina-TEWS announce early warning that the earthquake can generate tsunami. However, the announcement of the Ina-TEWS is still not accuracy. Purposes of this research are to estimate earthquake rupture duration of large Indonesia earthquakes that occurred in Indian Ocean, Java, Timor sea, Banda sea, Arafura sea and Pasific ocean. We analyzed at least 330 vertical seismogram recorded by IRIS-DMC network using a direct procedure for rapid assessment of earthquake tsunami potential using simple measures on P-wave vertical seismograms on the velocity records, and the likelihood that the high-frequency, apparent rupture duration, T{sub dur}. T{sub dur} can be related to the critical parameters rupture length (L), depth (z), and shear modulus ({mu}) while T{sub dur} may be related to wide (W), slip (D), z or {mu}. Our analysis shows that the rupture duration has a stronger influence to generate tsunami than Mw and depth. The rupture duration gives more information on tsunami impact, Mo/{mu}, depth and size than Mw and other currently used discriminants. We show more information which known from the rupture durations. The longer rupture duration, the shallower source of the earthquake. For rupture duration greater than 50 s, the depth less than 50 km, Mw greater than 7, the longer rupture length, because T{sub dur} is proportional L and greater Mo/{mu}. Because Mo/{mu} is proportional L. So, with rupture duration information can be known information of the four parameters. We also suggest that tsunami potential is not directly related to the faulting type of source and for events that have rupture duration greater than 50 s, the earthquakes generated tsunami. With available real-time seismogram data, rapid calculation, rupture duration discriminant

  14. 2004 Sumatra Tsunami

    Vongvisessomjai, S.; Suppataratarn, P.

    2005-01-01

    A catastrophic tsunami on December 26, 2004 caused devastation in the coastal region of six southern provinces of Thailand on the Andaman Sea coast. This paper summaries the characteristics of tsunami with the aim of informing and warning the public and reducing future casualties and damage.The first part is a review of the records of past catastrophic tsunamis, namely those in Chile in 1960, Alaska in 1964, and Flores, Java, Indonesia, in 1992, and the lessons drawn from these tsunamis. An a...

  15. Real-time tsunami inundation forecasting and damage mapping towards enhancing tsunami disaster resiliency

    Koshimura, S.; Hino, R.; Ohta, Y.; Kobayashi, H.; Musa, A.; Murashima, Y.

    2014-12-01

    With use of modern computing power and advanced sensor networks, a project is underway to establish a new system of real-time tsunami inundation forecasting, damage estimation and mapping to enhance society's resilience in the aftermath of major tsunami disaster. The system consists of fusion of real-time crustal deformation monitoring/fault model estimation by Ohta et al. (2012), high-performance real-time tsunami propagation/inundation modeling with NEC's vector supercomputer SX-ACE, damage/loss estimation models (Koshimura et al., 2013), and geo-informatics. After a major (near field) earthquake is triggered, the first response of the system is to identify the tsunami source model by applying RAPiD Algorithm (Ohta et al., 2012) to observed RTK-GPS time series at GEONET sites in Japan. As performed in the data obtained during the 2011 Tohoku event, we assume less than 10 minutes as the acquisition time of the source model. Given the tsunami source, the system moves on to running tsunami propagation and inundation model which was optimized on the vector supercomputer SX-ACE to acquire the estimation of time series of tsunami at offshore/coastal tide gauges to determine tsunami travel and arrival time, extent of inundation zone, maximum flow depth distribution. The implemented tsunami numerical model is based on the non-linear shallow-water equations discretized by finite difference method. The merged bathymetry and topography grids are prepared with 10 m resolution to better estimate the tsunami inland penetration. Given the maximum flow depth distribution, the system performs GIS analysis to determine the numbers of exposed population and structures using census data, then estimates the numbers of potential death and damaged structures by applying tsunami fragility curve (Koshimura et al., 2013). Since the tsunami source model is determined, the model is supposed to complete the estimation within 10 minutes. The results are disseminated as mapping products to

  16. 2006: STATUS OF TSUNAMI SCIENCE RESEARCH AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS OF RESEARCH

    Barbara H. Keating

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In 2005, Dr. Robert Wiegel compiled “Tsunami Information Sources”. The compilation has been made available via a website and has been published as an issue in Science of Tsunami Hazards. The compiled references have been assigned keyword descriptions, and compiled in order to review the breath and depth of Tsunami Science publications.The review indicates that tsunami research involves eight major scientific disciplines: Geology, Seismology, Tsunami Science, Engineering, Disaster Management, Meteorology and Communications. These disciplines were subdivided into many topical subjects and the results were tabulated.The topics having the largest number of publications include: tsunamigenic earthquakes, numerical modeling, field surveys, engineering models, harbor, bay, and canal modeling and observations, energy of tsunamis, workshops, tsunami warning centers, instrumentation, tsunami catalogs, tsunami disaster mitigation, evaluation of hazards, the aftermath of tsunamis on humans, and AID provided to Tsunami Damaged Communities.Several areas of research were identified as likely directions for future research, including: paleotsunami studies, risk assessments, instrumentation, numerical modeling of earthquakes and tsunami, particularly the 2004 Indian Ocean event. There is a dearth of recent publications available on tsunami hazards education for the general public.

  17. Database of tsunami scenario simulations for Western Iberia: a tool for the TRIDEC Project Decision Support System for tsunami early warning

    Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Zaniboni, Filippo; Tinti, Stefano

    2013-04-01

    TRIDEC is a EU-FP7 Project whose main goal is, in general terms, to develop suitable strategies for the management of crises possibly arising in the Earth management field. The general paradigms adopted by TRIDEC to develop those strategies include intelligent information management, the capability of managing dynamically increasing volumes and dimensionality of information in complex events, and collaborative decision making in systems that are typically very loosely coupled. The two areas where TRIDEC applies and tests its strategies are tsunami early warning and industrial subsurface development. In the field of tsunami early warning, TRIDEC aims at developing a Decision Support System (DSS) that integrates 1) a set of seismic, geodetic and marine sensors devoted to the detection and characterisation of possible tsunamigenic sources and to monitoring the time and space evolution of the generated tsunami, 2) large-volume databases of pre-computed numerical tsunami scenarios, 3) a proper overall system architecture. Two test areas are dealt with in TRIDEC: the western Iberian margin and the eastern Mediterranean. In this study, we focus on the western Iberian margin with special emphasis on the Portuguese coasts. The strategy adopted in TRIDEC plans to populate two different databases, called "Virtual Scenario Database" (VSDB) and "Matching Scenario Database" (MSDB), both of which deal only with earthquake-generated tsunamis. In the VSDB we simulate numerically few large-magnitude events generated by the major known tectonic structures in the study area. Heterogeneous slip distributions on the earthquake faults are introduced to simulate events as "realistically" as possible. The members of the VSDB represent the unknowns that the TRIDEC platform must be able to recognise and match during the early crisis management phase. On the other hand, the MSDB contains a very large number (order of thousands) of tsunami simulations performed starting from many different

  18. Influence of hydrodynamic parameters on tsunami run-up uncertainty induced by earthquake random slip distribtutions

    Løvholt, Finn; Kim, Jihwan; Pedersen, Geir; Harbitz, Carl

    2016-04-01

    The standard approach in forward modeling of earthquake tsunamis usually assume a uniform slip pattern. This is assumption is used both in deterministic and probabilistic models. However, the slip distribution for an earthquake is subject to (aleatory) uncertainty, and consequently the induced tsunami run-up will have an uncertainty range even given the same moment magnitude and hypocentre earthquake location. Here, we present studies of run-up variability due to stochastic earthquake slip variation in both two and three dimensions. The approach taken is fully idealized, although we draw upon the experience from two of the most destructive events the last hundred years, namely the Mw8 1976 Moro Gulf earthquake and tsunami as well as the Mw9 2011 Tohoku earthquake tsunami. The former event is used to design the two-dimensional stochastic simulations, and the latter event the three-dimensional simulations. Our primary focus is not reproduce past run-up, but rather to investigate how the hydrodynamics influence uncertainty. These quantities include among others the non-hydrodynamic response during generation, frequency dispersion, friction from the seabed, and wave-breaking. We simulate tsunamis for an ensemble of synthetic random slip over an idealized shelf geometry broken into linear segments. The uncertainty propagation from source to run-up for the two different cases are discussed and compared. As demonstrated, both the dimensionality and the earthquake parameters influence the contributions of the hydrodynamic parameters on the uncertainty. Further work will be needed to explore the transitional behaviour between the two very different cases displayed here. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement 603839 (Project ASTARTE).

  19. Analysis of the Steam Generator Tubes Rupture Initiating Event

    In PSA studies, Event Tree-Fault Tree techniques are used to analyse to consequences associated with the evolution of an initiating event. The Event Tree is built in the sequence identification stage, following the expected behaviour of the plant in a qualitative way. Computer simulation of the sequences is performed mainly to determine the allowed time for operator actions, and do not play a central role in ET validation. The simulation of the sequence evolution can instead be performed by using standard tools, helping the analyst obtain a more realistic ET. Long existing methods and tools can be used to automatism the construction of the event tree associated to a given initiator. These methods automatically construct the ET by simulating the plant behaviour following the initiator, allowing some of the systems to fail during the sequence evolution. Then, the sequences with and without the failure are followed. The outcome of all this is a Dynamic Event Tree. The work described here is the application of one such method to the particular case of the SGTR initiating event. The DYLAM scheduler, designed at the Ispra (Italy) JRC of the European Communities, is used to automatically drive the simulation of all the sequences constituting the Event Tree. Similarly to the static Event Tree, each time a system is demanded, two branches are open: one corresponding to the success and the other to the failure of the system. Both branches are followed by the plant simulator until a new system is demanded, and the process repeats. The plant simulation modelling allows the treatment of degraded sequences that enter into the severe accident domain as well as of success sequences in which long-term cooling is started. (Author)

  20. Top quark event modelling and generators in CMS

    Bilin, Bugra

    2016-01-01

    State-of-the-art theoretical predictions accurate to next-to-leading order QCD interfaced with {\\sc pythia} and {\\sc herwig} are tested by comparing the unfolded $t\\bar{t}$ differential data collected with the CMS detector at 8 TeV and 13 TeV. These predictions are also compared with the measurements of underlying event activity distributions accompanying ${\\rm t\\bar{t}}$ events. Furthermore, predictions of beyond NLO accuracy in QCD are compared with the data.

  1. New Edition of the UNESCO-IOC International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST) Post-Tsunami Survey Field Guide

    Dengler, L.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Yamamoto, M.; Borrero, J. C.; Dunbar, P. K.; Fritz, H. M.; Imamura, F.; Kong, L. S.; Koshimura, S.; McAdoo, B. G.; Satake, K.; Yalciner, A. C.; Yulianto, E.

    2011-12-01

    A subcommittee of the IUGG International Tsunami Commission was convened in 2010 to revise and update the 1998 UNESCO-IOC Post-Tsunami Survey Field Guide. The revised Guide addresses the developments in the tsunami field since 1998, the need to accommodate vastly increased amounts of data, and to incorporate disciplines that were not covered in the original guide. The Guide also advocates a systems-approach to assessing tsunami impacts that examines the full range of physical, environmental, and socio-economic effects and their interrelationship, bringing tsunami research efforts into a closer alignment with the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR). This Field Guide is intended to provide a flexible framework to facilitate the acquisition of critical data in the immediate aftermath of significant tsunamis and to balance the needs of international researchers with those of communities and agencies involved with response and recovery. It will be of use to a variety of people and organizations who may either participate in, assist in coordination, or host post-tsunami field surveys. It is hoped that this Guide will promote pre-event planning in countries at risk of tsunamis to reduce the stresses of developing organizational logistics in the post-emergency response phase and make the process of conducting an ITST easier and more productive for both participating researchers and host country organizations. A complete draft of the Guide will be presented at the meeting and members of the tsunami community invited to comment.

  2. Testing rock magnetic and AMS methods in tsunami and storm-induced deposits

    Font, Eric; Duarte, Sílvia; C. Veiga-Pires; Simões, Nuno; Muñoz, Francisco Ruiz; Abad, Manuel; POZO, Manuel; Nave, Silvia; Costas, Susana; Rebelo, Luis

    2012-01-01

    Storm- and tsunami-deposits are generated by similar depositional mechanisms making their discrimination hard to establish using classic sedimentologic methods. A promising approach is to use rock magnetism techniques to search for new physical benchmarks of tsunami deposits and to integrate them into a multi-disciplinary study. To test our method, we investigate the 1755 Lisbon tsunami deposit from the Boca do Rio estuary and other Tsunami-induced deposits from Algarve (Portugal) ...

  3. Submarine slope earthquake-induced instability and associated tsunami generation potential along the Hyblean-Malta Escarpment (offshore eastern Sicily, Italy)

    Ausilia Paparo, Maria; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Zaniboni, Filippo; Tinti, Stefano

    2016-04-01

    The stability analysis of offshore margins is an important step for the assessment of natural hazard: the main challenge is to evaluate the potential slope failures and the consequent occurrence of submarine tsunamigenic landslides to mitigate the potential coastal damage to inhabitants and infrastructures. But the limited geotechnical knowledge of the underwater soil and the controversial scientific interpretation of the tectonic units make it often difficult to carry out this type of analysis reliably. We select the Hyblean-Malta Escarpment (HME), the main active geological structure offshore eastern Sicily, because the amount of data from historical chronicles, the records about strong earthquakes and tsunami, and the numerous geological offshore surveys carried out in recent years make the region an excellent scenario to evaluate slope failures, mass movements triggered by earthquakes and the consequent tsunamis. We choose several profiles along the HME and analyse their equilibrium conditions using the Minimun Lithostatic Deviation (MLD) method (Tinti and Manucci, 2006, 2008; Paparo et al. 2013), that is based on the limit-equilibrium theory. Considering the morphological and geotechnical features of the offshore slopes, we prove that large-earthquake shaking may lead some zones of the HME to instability, we evaluate the expected volumes involved in sliding and compute the associated landslide-tsunami through numerical tsunami simulations. This work was carried out in the frame of the EU Project called ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe (Grant 603839, 7th FP, ENV.2013.6.4-3).

  4. A Walk through TRIDEC's intermediate Tsunami Early Warning System

    Hammitzsch, M.; Reißland, S.; Lendholt, M.

    2012-04-01

    The management of natural crises is an important application field of the technology developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), co-funded by the European Commission in its Seventh Framework Programme. TRIDEC is based on the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) providing a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination. In TRIDEC new developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) are used to extend the existing platform realising a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems for deployment, e.g. in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing challenges, such as the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources with accelerated generation of large volumes of data. These include sensor systems, geo-information repositories, simulation tools and data fusion tools. In addition to conventional sensors also unconventional sensors and sensor networks play an important role in TRIDEC. The system version presented is based on service-oriented architecture (SOA) concepts and on relevant standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). In this way the system continuously gathers, processes and displays events and data coming from open sensor platforms to enable operators to quickly decide whether an early warning is necessary and to send personalized warning messages to the authorities and the population at large through a wide range of communication channels. The system

  5. The February 27, 2010 Chile Tsunami - Sedimentology of runup and backflow deposits at Isla Mocha

    Bahlburg, H.; Spiske, M.

    2010-12-01

    On February 27, 2010, at 3:34 am local time, an earthquake with Mw 8.8 occurred off the town of Constitución in Central Chile and caused a major tsunami beween Valaparaiso (c. 33°S) and Tirua (c. 38°S). Maximum runup heights of up to 10 m were measured on coastal plains. The cliff coast at Tirua recorded a runup height between 30 m and 40 m. Considering past tsunami events, respective deposits may be the only observable evidence, even though their preservation potential is limited. To understand how tsunami deposits form and how they can be identified in the geological record, it is of paramount importance to undertake detailed studies in the wake of such events. Here we report initial field data of a sedimentological post-tsunami field survey undertaken in Central Chile between March 31 and April 18, 2010. At selected localities we measured detailed topographic profiles including runup heights and inundation distances, and recorded the thickness, distribution and sedimentological features of the respective tsunami deposits, as well as erosional features caused by the tsunami. We found the most instructive and complete sedimentological record of the February 27, 2010 tsunami at the northern tip of Isla Mocha, a small island off the Chilean coast at c. 28.15°S. Runup distances vary between 400 m and 600 m, the flow depth exceeded 3 m at ca. 100 m from the coast. Runup heights reached up to 21 m above sea level. In a rare sedimentological case, deposits of tsunami runup and backwash could be distinguished. The runup phase was mainly documented by fields of boulders extending c. 360 m inland. Boulders had maximum weights of 12 t. They were oriented with their long axis parallel to the coast and the wave front. Algal veneers and barnacles on the boulder faces give evidence of entrainment in intertidal water depths. The boulders are now embedded in mostly structureless coarse shelly sand. These sands were originally entrained during near shore supratidal erosion of

  6. The Solomon Islands Tsunami of 6 February 2013 in the Santa Cruz Islands: Field Survey and Modeling

    Fritz, Hermann M.; Papantoniou, Antonios; Biukoto, Litea; Albert, Gilly; Wei, Yong

    2014-05-01

    On February 6, 2013 at 01:12:27 UTC (local time: UTC+11), a magnitude Mw 8.0 earthquake occurred 70 km to the west of Ndendo Island (Santa Cruz Island) in the Solomon Islands. The under-thrusting earthquake near a 90° bend, where the Australian plate subducts beneath the Pacific plate generated a locally focused tsunami in the Coral Sea and the South Pacific Ocean. The tsunami claimed the lives of 10 people and injured 15, destroyed 588 houses and partially damaged 478 houses, affecting 4,509 people in 1,066 households corresponding to an estimated 37% of the population of Santa Cruz Island. A multi-disciplinary international tsunami survey team (ITST) was deployed within days of the event to document flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment and coral boulder depositions, land level changes, damage patterns at various scales, performance of the man-made infrastructure and impact on the natural environment. The 19 to 23 February 2013 ITST covered 30 locations on 4 Islands: Ndendo (Santa Cruz), Tomotu Noi (Lord Howe), Nea Tomotu (Trevanion, Malo) and Tinakula. The reconnaissance completely circling Ndendo and Tinakula logged 240 km by small boat and additionally covered 20 km of Ndendo's hard hit western coastline by vehicle. The collected survey data includes more than 80 tsunami runup and flow depth measurements. The tsunami impact peaked at Manoputi on Ndendo's densely populated west coast with maximum tsunami height exceeding 11 m and local flow depths above ground exceeding 7 m. A fast tide-like positive amplitude of 1 m was recorded at Lata wharf inside Graciosa Bay on Ndendo Island and misleadingly reported in the media as representative tsunami height. The stark contrast between the field observations on exposed coastlines and the Lata tide gauge recording highlights the importance of rapid tsunami reconnaissance surveys. Inundation distance and damage more than 500 m inland were recorded at Lata airport on Ndendo Island. Landslides were

  7. Disturbance of shallow marine soft-bottom environments and megabenthos assemblages by a huge tsunami induced by the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake.

    Koji Seike

    Full Text Available Huge tsunami waves associated with megathrust earthquakes have a severe impact on shallow marine ecosystems. We investigated the impact of a tsunami generated by the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake on the seafloor and large benthic animals in muddy and sandy ria coasts (Otsuchi and Funakoshi bays in northeastern Japan. We conducted underwater field surveys using scuba equipment in water depths of <20 m before the tsunami (September 2010 and after the tsunami (September 2011 and September 2012. During the study period, episodic changes in topography and grain-size composition occurred on the seafloor of the study area. Megabenthos sampling revealed a distinct pattern of distribution succession for each benthic species. For example, the protobranch bivalve Yoldia notabilis (Bivalvia: Nuculanidae and the heterodont bivalve Felaniella usta (Bivalvia: Ungulinidae disappeared after the tsunami event, whereas the distribution of the venus clam Gomphina melanaegis (Bivalvia: Veneridae remained unchanged. In addition, the patterns of succession for a single species, such as the giant button top shell Umbonium costatum (Gastropoda: Trochidae and the heart urchin Echinocardium cordatum (Echinoidea: Loveniidae, varied between the two bays studied. Our data also show that reestablishment of some benthic animal populations began within 18 months of the tsunami disturbance.

  8. Quantification of Tsunami Bathymetry Effect on Finite Fault Slip Inversion

    Bletery, Quentin; Sladen, Anthony; Delouis, Bertrand; Mattéo, Lionel

    2015-12-01

    The strong development of tsunami instrumentation in the past decade now provides observations of tsunami wave propagation in most ocean basins. This evolution has led to the wide use of tsunami data to image the complexity of earthquake sources. In particular, the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake is the first mega-event for which such a tsunami instrumentation network was available with an almost complete azimuthal coverage. Source inversion studies have taken advantage of these observations which add a lot of constrain on the solutions, especially in the shallow part of the fault models where other standard data sets tend to lack resolution: while on-land data are quite insensitive to slip on the often-distant shallow part of a subduction fault interface, tsunami observations are directly sensitive to the shallowest slip. And it is in this shallow portion that steep bathymetry combined with horizontal motion, the so-called bathymetry effect, can contribute to the tsunami excitation, in addition to the direct vertical sea-bottom deformation. In this study, we carefully investigate the different steps involved in the calculation of this bathymetry effect, from the initial sea-floor deformation to the prediction of the tsunami records, and evaluate its contribution across the main subduction zones of the world. We find that the bathymetry effect locally exceeds 10 % of the tsunami excitation in all subduction zones and 25 % in those known to produce the largest tsunami, either from mega- or tsunami- earthquakes. We then show how the bathymetry effect can modify the tsunami wave predictions, with time shifts of the wavefront and amplitudes sometimes varying by a factor of two. If the bathymetry effect can have a strong impact on the simulated tsunami, it will also affect the solution of the finite-fault slip inversion. We illustrate this later aspect in the case of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake. We find that not accounting for the bathymetry effect will not necessarily

  9. Global Tsunami Database: Adding Geologic Deposits, Proxies, and Tools

    Brocko, V. R.; Varner, J.

    2007-12-01

    A result of collaboration between NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences (CIRES), the Global Tsunami Database includes instrumental records, human observations, and now, information inferred from the geologic record. Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) data, historical reports, and information gleaned from published tsunami deposit research build a multi-faceted view of tsunami hazards and their history around the world. Tsunami history provides clues to what might happen in the future, including frequency of occurrence and maximum wave heights. However, instrumental and written records commonly span too little time to reveal the full range of a region's tsunami hazard. The sedimentary deposits of tsunamis, identified with the aid of modern analogs, increasingly complement instrumental and human observations. By adding the component of tsunamis inferred from the geologic record, the Global Tsunami Database extends the record of tsunamis backward in time. Deposit locations, their estimated age and descriptions of the deposits themselves fill in the tsunami record. Tsunamis inferred from proxies, such as evidence for coseismic subsidence, are included to estimate recurrence intervals, but are flagged to highlight the absence of a physical deposit. Authors may submit their own descriptions and upload digital versions of publications. Users may sort by any populated field, including event, location, region, age of deposit, author, publication type (extract information from peer reviewed publications only, if you wish), grain size, composition, presence/absence of plant material. Users may find tsunami deposit references for a given location, event or author; search for particular properties of tsunami deposits; and even identify potential collaborators. Users may also download public-domain documents. Data and information may be viewed using tools designed to extract and

  10. Retrospect on the tsunami simulation efforts for the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System

    Rakowsky, Natalja; Androsov, Alexey; Harig, Sven; Immerz, Antonia; Behrens, Jörn; Danilov, Sergey; Hiller, Wolfgang; Schröter, Jens

    2014-05-01

    Starting in 2005, the GITEWS project (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) established from scratch a fully operational tsunami warning system at BMKG in Jakarta. GITEWS was succeeded in 2011 by the smaller project PROTECTS for training the Indonesian staff and consolidating the technical system. With the official end in March 2014, it is time to draw a balance and evaluate the approach. This presentation focuses on the contribution of the tsunami modelling group at the Alfred Wegener Institute. We will give a short overview on the developments of the numerical tsunami simulation model TsunAWI, of the scenario database built with TsunAWI, and of the simulation module SIM that interfaces the database to the decision support system. Some distinctive experiences will be highlighted. Topics include the modeling part as well as the matching process after the database is already set up. On the modeling side, unstructured mesh generation with focus on local bathymetric features and inclusion of precise coastline position as well as numerical parametrization and post processing are covered. The matching of pre calculated scenarios with incoming data in case of a tsunamigenic earthquake is performed in the simulation system SIM, which processes the data of multiple sensors and employs various metrics to limit the choice of possible scenarios from the database. One challenge was that the development of the matching algorithm had to start without having access to real sensor data except seismic information on epicenter and magnitude. Therefore, the algorithm is designed with robustness in mind. Still, the conservative approach allows to narrow down the scenario selection even with limited sensor information. Given more experience in the typical behaviour of sensor data in real events, the algorithm parameters can easily be calibrated towards a more restrictive scenario selection. Another challenge was to ensure the quality control of the data products derived from

  11. Handling of the Generation of Primary Events in Gauss, the LHCb Simulation Framework

    Corti, G; Brambach, T; Brook, N H; Gauvin, N; Harrison, K; Harrison, P; He, J; Ilten, P J; Jones, C R; Lieng, M H; Manca, G; Miglioranzi, S; Robbe, P; Vagnoni, V; Whitehead, M; Wishahi, J

    2010-01-01

    The LHCb simulation application, Gauss, consists of two independent phases, the generation of the primary event and the tracking of particles produced in the experimental setup. For the LHCb experimental program it is particularly important to model B meson decays: the EvtGen code developed in CLEO and BaBar has been chosen and customized for non coherent B production as occuring in pp collisions at the LHC. The initial proton-proton collision is provided by a different generator engine, currently Pythia 6 for massive production of signal and generic pp collisions events. Beam gas events, background events originating from proton halo, cosmics and calibration events for different detectors can be generated in addition to pp collisions. Different generator packages are available in the physics community or specifically developed in LHCb, and are used for the different purposes. Running conditions affecting the events generated such as the size of the luminous region, the number of collisions occuring in a bunc...

  12. GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

    Schöne, T.; Pandoe, W.; Mudita, I.; Roemer, S.; Illigner, J.; Zech, C.; Galas, R.

    2011-03-01

    On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements. The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) (Rudloff et al., 2009) combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP) measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information. The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

  13. Studies provide new insights into Japan's March 2011 tsunami

    Balcerak, Ernie

    2011-12-01

    New data, field studies, modeling efforts, and surveys are revealing a wealth of information about the devastating tsunami that followed the 11 March 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The earthquake and resulting tsunami caused massive destruction and the loss of about 20,000 lives. At the AGU Fall Meeting last week in San Francisco, Calif., scientists reported a variety of new insights about the tsunami and its effects and about tsunami defense mechanisms, ways to forecast tsunami inundation, and public perception of risk. For example, part of the reason the tsunami generated by the Tohoku quake was so large and destructive was that it was a "merging tsunami." Merging tsunamis, which have been hypothesized but not previously observed with certainty, grow in size dramatically when seafloor topography alters the direction in which the waves are traveling and causes two waves to merge into a larger wave. The alteration of wave paths by complex ocean-floor topography makes it difficult to predict where the largest waves will strike land. "Tsunamis often destroy some coastal areas while leaving others with little damage," explained Tony Song of the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, at a 5 December press conference.

  14. GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

    T. Schöne

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements.

    The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS (Rudloff et al., 2009 combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information.

    The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

  15. Origin of the "Odessa tsunami" of 27 June 2014: Data assessment and numerical modelling

    Sepic, Jadranka; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Sytov, Victor N.

    2016-04-01

    During 23 to 27 June 2014, several locations in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea were hit by destructive tsunami-like waves. Analysis of synoptic conditions, air pressure and sea level records indicated that all these events were meteorological tsunamis, i.e. tsunami-like waves generated by short-lasting (a few tens of minutes) but intense air pressure disturbances. The north-western Black Sea was one of the regions impacted: at approximately noon on 27 June a 1-2 m high wave struck the beaches of Odessa, the third largest Ukrainian city, and the neighbouring port-town Illichevsk. Several people were injured and taken to hospital. Throughout the day, a distinct meteotsunamigenic synoptic pattern, accompanied by pronounced air pressure oscillations, was observed over the Black Sea, 150 to 300 km south of Odessa, stretching from Romania in the west to Crimea in the east. Right at the time of the event, a 1-2 hPa air pressure jump was recorded at Odessa. We have utilized a barotropic ocean numerical model to test two hypothesis: (1) a tsunami-like wave was generated by an air pressure disturbance propagating directly over Odessa; (2) a tsunami-like wave was generated by an air pressure disturbance propagating off-shore, approximately 200 km to the south of Odessa. Surprisingly, 1.5 times higher maximum modelled sea level heights in Odessa were obtained in the second set of experiments. The resulting increase was 10 cm per 1 hPa of air pressure change for an offshore disturbance and 7 cm per 1 hPa for a direct forcing experiment. The numerical model decisively confirms the meteorological origin of the tsunami-like waves on the coast of Odessa and implies that intensified long-ocean waves in this region were generated via the Proudman resonance mechanism while propagating over the northwestern Black Sea shelf. Upon hitting the shelf-break, modelled ocean waves detached from the air pressure disturbance and reflected northwards. Following the reflection, the waves

  16. Tide Gage Records of Two Large XIX Century Tsunamis Originated in South America

    Barrientos, S. E.; Ward, S. N.

    2008-12-01

    Two large earthquakes took place in the later part of the XIX century in southern Peru and northern Chile, these are the August 13, 1868, and the May 9, 1877 (local time), events. Their estimated magnitudes are of the order of 9 rupturing contiguous segments of nearly 500 km each. Both of them accommodated the convergence between Nazca and South American plates producing large seafloor and coastal elevation changes generating significant tsunamis that affected most of the coastlines of the Pacific basin. Reported local runups reached 20 m. Both trans-pacific tsunamis were recorded at one tide gage in Fort Point, in the Presidio area of San Francisco Bay, California. Records at Sausalito (approximately 6 km away from Fort Point) for the 1877 event mimic the signal recorded at Fort Point. Here we report on the characteristics of these tide gage records and compare them to the recent record of the June 2001 Mw=8.4 earthquake that ruptured a fraction of the 1868 event. Numerical simulations of the tsunamis have been constructed. The area to the south of the 2001 event and north of Antofagasta - Tocopilla in Chile (17°S-22°S), has not been subjected to large earthquakes since the 1868-1877 sequence.

  17. Meteorological tsunamis along the East Coast of the United States

    Rabinovich, A.

    2012-12-01

    Tsunami-like intense sea level oscillations are common along the East Coast of the United States. They are generated by various types of atmospheric disturbances, including hurricanes, frontal passages, tornados, trains of atmospheric gravity waves, pressure jumps, squalls, and gales, that each set up a local, time-limited barotropic response in the affected body of water. These meteorologically induced waves have the same temporal and spatial scales as their seismically generated counterparts and inflict comparable destructions. Observed around the globe, these devastating waves are known locally as "abiki" in Nagaski Bay (Japan), "rissaga" in Spain, "šćiga" along the Croation Coast bordering the Adriatic Sea, "milghuba" in Malta, and "marrobbio" in Italy. Collectively, they may be considered as "meteorological tsunamis" or "meteotsunamis." The updated NOAA tide gauge network with 1 min sampling enabled us to examine resonant amplifications of specific events observed in 2007-2012 and physical properties of meteotsunamis impacting the United States East Coast in general. Of particular interest and focus was the "derecho" event of June 29 - July 2, 2012.

  18. A method to estimate expected fatalities and economic loss of buildings in an urban environment as a step toward tsunami risk assessment: an application to the city of Siracusa, Italy.

    Pagnoni, Gianluca; Accorsi, Eleonora; Tinti, Stefano

    2016-04-01

    Siracusa, an important city of the south-east Sicily, is located in an area highly exposed to the danger of tsunami, local and remote. Among the many events that affected this area those with a major effect are the AD 365 tsunami generated by an earthquake in the Western Hellenic Arc, the event of 11 January 1693, following an earthquake in the area of Augusta, and the tsunami of 28 December 1908 generated in the Messina strait. The aim of this study is to evaluate the number of exposed people and of fatalities as well as the type of damage to constructions and the associated loss of economic value in case of a tsunami, based on a simple tsunami scenario, i.e. on assuming a uniform inundation level of 5 m. This figure is considered appropriate for this preliminary tsunami loss analysis since it is compatible with historical tsunami observations and is also supported by recent tsunami hazard studies carried out for this area (Armigliato et al., 2015). The main physical tsunami parameter used in computations is the water column, which is merely the difference between the assumed inundation level and the topographic altitude. We use numerical geo-referenced 1:2000 maps providing a database of constructions in the area of Siracusa together with data from national and local statistical institutions to make estimates on the number and type of buildings and on the number of people that may be found in the inundation area in different periods of the year, discriminating between residents and tourists. Using a variant of the Terrier et al. (2012) table and tsunami mortality curves proposed by Koshimura et al. (2009) we are able to estimate expected fatalities with tsunami inundation reaching at most the first floor of buildings. We calculate economic loss by taking into account both residential buildings and commercial-industrial structures and data from the real estate market. This study is funded by the EU Project ASTARTE - "Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for

  19. Response to the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami disaster.

    Koshimura, Shunichi; Shuto, Nobuo

    2015-10-28

    We revisited the lessons of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Tsunami disaster specifically on the response and impact, and discussed the paradigm shift of Japan's tsunami disaster management policies and the perspectives for reconstruction. Revisiting the modern histories of Tohoku tsunami disasters and pre-2011 tsunami countermeasures, we clarified how Japan's coastal communities have prepared for tsunamis. The discussion mainly focuses on structural measures such as seawalls and breakwaters and non-structural measures of hazard map and evacuation. The responses to the 2011 event are discussed specifically on the tsunami warning system and efforts to identify the tsunami impacts. The nation-wide post-tsunami survey results shed light on the mechanisms of structural destruction, tsunami loads and structural vulnerability to inform structural rehabilitation measures and land-use planning. Remarkable paradigm shifts in designing coastal protection and disaster mitigation measures were introduced, leading with a new concept of potential tsunami levels: Prevention (Level 1) and Mitigation (Level 2) levels according to the level of 'protection'. The seawall is designed with reference to Level 1 tsunami scenario, while comprehensive disaster management measures should refer to Level 2 tsunami for protection of human lives and reducing potential losses and damage. Throughout the case study in Sendai city, the proposed reconstruction plan was evaluated from the tsunami engineering point of view to discuss how the post 2011 paradigm was implemented in coastal communities for future disaster mitigation. The analysis revealed that Sendai city's multiple protection measures for Level 2 tsunami will contribute to a substantial reduction of the tsunami inundation zone and potential losses, combined with an effective tsunami evacuation plan. PMID:26392623

  20. The influence of land cover roughness on the results of high resolution tsunami inundation modeling

    G. Kaiser

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a local case study is presented in which detailed inundation simulations have been performed to support damage analysis and risk assessment related to the 2004 tsunami in Phang Nga and Phuket, Thailand. Besides tsunami sources, bathymetry and topography, bottom roughness induced by vegetation and built environment is considered to influence inundation characteristics, such as water depths or flow velocities and therefore attracts major attention in this work. Plenty of information available on the 2004 tsunami event, high-resolution satellite imagery and extensive field measurements to derive land cover information and forest stand parameters facilitated the generation of topographic datasets, land cover maps and site-specific Manning values for the most prominent land cover classes in the study areas. The numerical models ComMIT and Mike 21 FM were used to hindcast the observed tsunami inundation and to draw conclusions on the influence of land cover on inundation patterns. Results show a strong influence of dense vegetation on flow velocities, which were reduced by up to 50% by mangroves, while the inundation extent is influenced only to a lesser extent. In urban areas, the disregard of buildings in the model led to a significant overestimation of the inundation extent. Hence different approaches to consider buildings were used and analyzed in the model. The case study highlights the importance and quantifies the effects of considering land cover roughness in inundation simulations used for local risk assessment.

  1. Large Historical Earthquakes and Tsunami Hazards in the Western Mediterranean: Source Characteristics and Modelling

    Harbi, Assia; Meghraoui, Mustapha; Belabbes, Samir; Maouche, Said

    2010-05-01

    The western Mediterranean region was the site of numerous large earthquakes in the past. Most of these earthquakes are located at the East-West trending Africa-Eurasia plate boundary and along the coastline of North Africa. The most recent recorded tsunamigenic earthquake occurred in 2003 at Zemmouri-Boumerdes (Mw 6.8) and generated ~ 2-m-high tsunami wave. The destructive wave affected the Balearic Islands and Almeria in southern Spain and Carloforte in southern Sardinia (Italy). The earthquake provided a unique opportunity to gather instrumental records of seismic waves and tide gauges in the western Mediterranean. A database that includes a historical catalogue of main events, seismic sources and related fault parameters was prepared in order to assess the tsunami hazard of this region. In addition to the analysis of the 2003 records, we study the 1790 Oran and 1856 Jijel historical tsunamigenic earthquakes (Io = IX and X, respectively) that provide detailed observations on the heights and extension of past tsunamis and damage in coastal zones. We performed the modelling of wave propagation using NAMI-DANCE code and tested different fault sources from synthetic tide gauges. We observe that the characteristics of seismic sources control the size and directivity of tsunami wave propagation on both northern and southern coasts of the western Mediterranean.

  2. Source Models and Near-Field Impact of the 1 April 2007 Solomon Islands Tsunami

    Wei, Yong; Fritz, Hermann M.; Titov, Vasily V.; Uslu, Burak; Chamberlin, Chris; Kalligeris, Nikos

    2015-03-01

    Within weeks of the Solomon Islands earthquake of 1 April 2007, international tsunami survey teams discovered important biomarkers of crust rupture and tsunami heights along the islands' coastlines. Deep-ocean tsunameters recorded the tsunami waves of this event, enabling a real-time inversion of the tsunami source and model evaluation of near-field tsunami impact. The survey measurements provide valuable datasets for further confirmation of the tsunami source of the 1 April 2007 Solomon earthquake. These survey results also aided investigation of the correlation between sources determined by use of tsunameter records and those derived from seismometer records or crust-rupture measurements. In this study, to assess the near-field tsunami impact, we developed tsunami inundation models for the Solomon Islands, including tsunami waveforms, co-seismic land-level changes, and tsunami height distributions on individual islands. Compared with seismic-derived tsunami sources, modeling results based on the tsunameter-derived tsunami sources were a good match with field survey measurements. These results highlight the accuracy and efficiency of the tsunameter-derived tsunami source in modeling the near-field tsunami impact along a complex archipelago. We show that the source models, although derived by use of different methods, are all suited to initiation of inundation models developed for Solomon Islands. As these source models become available in real time or near real time, they can be implemented immediately in the inundation models to provide rapid guidance on tsunami hazard assessment, focused search and rescue operations, and post-event recovery and reconstruction.

  3. How-to: Write a parton-level Monte Carlo event generator

    Papaefstathiou, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    This article provides an introduction to the principles of particle physics event generators that are based on the Monte Carlo method. Following some preliminaries, instructions on how to built a basic parton-level Monte Carlo event generator are given through exercises.

  4. Solomon Islands Tsunami, One Year Later

    McAdoo, Brian G.; Fritz, Hermann; Jackson, Kelly L.; Kalligeris, Nikos; Kruger, Jens; Bonte-Grapentin, Michael; Moore, Andrew L.; Rafiau, Wilson B.; Billy, Douglas; Tiano, Braddley

    2008-04-01

    The geologic and economic effects of the 2 April 2007 Solomon Islands earthquake and tsunami are distinctly visible a little more than a year after the event. Coral reef colonies that were sheared off and uplifted are slowly recovering, and many new earthquake-triggered landslides remain mobile. Large volumes of sediment created by the earthquake and mobilized by the tsunami have been flushed from the lagoons between the reef and shoreline into deeper water, although significant quantities remain on land. Sediment from the lagoons covers piles of shattered coral that the tsunami moved from the lagoons to the base of channels in the barrier reef. These shattered corals have a higher chance of preservation as paleotsunami deposits than the material deposited on land.

  5. Can Asteroid Airbursts Cause Dangerous Tsunami?.

    Boslough, Mark B. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-10-01

    I have performed a series of high-resolution hydrocode simulations to generate “source functions” for tsunami simulations as part of a proof-of-principle effort to determine whether or not the downward momentum from an asteroid airburst can couple energy into a dangerous tsunami in deep water. My new CTH simulations show enhanced momentum multiplication relative to a nuclear explosion of the same yield. Extensive sensitivity and convergence analyses demonstrate that results are robust and repeatable for simulations with sufficiently high resolution using adaptive mesh refinement. I have provided surface overpressure and wind velocity fields to tsunami modelers to use as time-dependent boundary conditions and to test the hypothesis that this mechanism can enhance the strength of the resulting shallow-water wave. The enhanced momentum result suggests that coupling from an over-water plume-forming airburst could be a more efficient tsunami source mechanism than a collapsing impact cavity or direct air blast alone, but not necessarily due to the originally-proposed mechanism. This result has significant implications for asteroid impact risk assessment and airburst-generated tsunami will be the focus of a NASA-sponsored workshop at the Ames Research Center next summer, with follow-on funding expected.

  6. Application of Seismic Array Processing to Tsunami Early Warning

    An, C.; Meng, L.

    2015-12-01

    Tsunami wave predictions of the current tsunami warning systems rely on accurate earthquake source inversions of wave height data. They are of limited effectiveness for the near-field areas since the tsunami waves arrive before data are collected. Recent seismic and tsunami disasters have revealed the need for early warning to protect near-source coastal populations. In this work we developed the basis for a tsunami warning system based on rapid earthquake source characterisation through regional seismic array back-projections. We explored rapid earthquake source imaging using onshore dense seismic arrays located at regional distances on the order of 1000 km, which provides faster source images than conventional teleseismic back-projections. We implement this method in a simulated real-time environment, and analysed the 2011 Tohoku earthquake rupture with two clusters of Hi-net stations in Kyushu and Northern Hokkaido, and the 2014 Iquique event with the Earthscope USArray Transportable Array. The results yield reasonable estimates of rupture area, which is approximated by an ellipse and leads to the construction of simple slip models based on empirical scaling of the rupture area, seismic moment and average slip. The slip model is then used as the input of the tsunami simulation package COMCOT to predict the tsunami waves. In the example of the Tohoku event, the earthquake source model can be acquired within 6 minutes from the start of rupture and the simulation of tsunami waves takes less than 2 min, which could facilitate a timely tsunami warning. The predicted arrival time and wave amplitude reasonably fit observations. Based on this method, we propose to develop an automatic warning mechanism that provides rapid near-field warning for areas of high tsunami risk. The initial focus will be Japan, Pacific Northwest and Alaska, where dense seismic networks with the capability of real-time data telemetry and open data accessibility, such as the Japanese HiNet (>800

  7. Tsunami Risk Mapping in Coastal Zones of Low Tsunami Hazard: The Case of the Balchik Town, Bulgarian Coast, Black Sea

    Fokaefs, A. L.; Diakogianni, G.; Novikova, T.; Papadopoulos, G. A.; Ranguelov, B. K.

    2009-12-01

    The Black Sea is characterized by low seismicity and low tsunami hazard. However, in the coastal zone of Balchik, located about 20 km to the north of Varna, Bulgaria, a few strong earthquakes associated with damaging tsunami waves have been reported historically: AD544 or 545 and 1901. In addition, Varna and Balchik, is a highly tourist destination. Therefore, the town of Balchik, has been selected as one of the test-sites of the EU tsunami research project SCHEMA. One of the major components in that research project as regards the test-site of Balchik is the production of tsunami risk maps. Our contribution is outlined as follows. We compile an updated and revised earthquake and tsunami catalogue for the Black Sea and select the large event of AD545 to produce an extreme tsunami scenario on the basis of two independent approaches. The first is based only on tsunami descriptions contained in historical documentary sources and on findings of possible tsunami effects in the archaeological site of Cibele temple. The second is based on inundation results coming from numerical simulation of a tsunamigenic source which is only hypothetical given that we have no precise information about the focal parameters of the causative earthquake of 545. Finally we adopted an extreme wave of 3-5 m in height. Maps illustrating a number of attributes, such as tsunami inundation, local topography, land use/land cover, importance of facilities etc. have been used to characterize and map the expected tsunami impact in scale 1:5000 which is practically applicable. The tsunami impact scenario includes three different items: damage potential, vulnerability of population, risk of life. This is a contribution of the EU Research Project "SCHEMA", contract n. 030963, FP6.

  8. Did a submarine landslide contribute to the 2011 Tohoku tsunami?

    Tappin, David R.

    2014-09-28

    Many studies have modeled the Tohoku tsunami of March 11, 2011 as being due entirely to slip on an earthquake fault, but the following discrepancies suggest that further research is warranted. (1) Published models of tsunami propagation and coastal impact underpredict the observed runup heights of up to 40 m measured along the coast of the Sanriku district in the northeast part of Honshu Island. (2) Published models cannot reproduce the timing and high-frequency content of tsunami waves recorded at three nearshore buoys off Sanriku, nor the timing and dispersion properties of the waveforms at offshore DART buoy #21418. (3) The rupture centroids obtained by tsunami inversions are biased about 60 km NNE of that obtained by the Global CMT Project. Based on an analysis of seismic and geodetic data, together with recorded tsunami waveforms, we propose that, while the primary source of the tsunami was the vertical displacement of the seafloor due to the earthquake, an additional tsunami source is also required. We infer the location of the proposed additional source based on an analysis of the travel times of higher-frequency tsunami waves observed at nearshore buoys. We further propose that the most likely additional tsunami source was a submarine mass failure (SMF—i.e., a submarine landslide). A comparison of pre- and post-tsunami bathymetric surveys reveals tens of meters of vertical seafloor movement at the proposed SMF location, and a slope stability analysis confirms that the horizontal acceleration from the earthquake was sufficient to trigger an SMF. Forward modeling of the tsunami generated by a combination of the earthquake and the SMF reproduces the recorded on-, near- and offshore tsunami observations well, particularly the high-frequency component of the tsunami waves off Sanriku, which were not well simulated by previous models. The conclusion that a significant part of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami was generated by an SMF source has important implications for

  9. Digital elevation models in the marine domain: investigating the offshore tsunami hazard from submarine landslides

    Tappin, David R.

    2015-04-01

    Over the past 30 years multibeam bathymetry has replaced single-beam echo soundings as the main tool used to map the sea floor. Developed as a military tool its expansion into the scientific domain has revolutionized our ability not only to visualise seabed morphology, but also to interpret the active processes taking place at and beneath the seabed. DEMs derived from multibeam are now comparable to those on land. One aspect of the improved seabed visualization is in mapping marine geohazards, in this instance, submarine landslides. One of the first multibeam surveys actually programmed to investigate an actual event was in 1999 after the tsunami on the north coast of Papua New Guinea killed 2,200 people. It was a wake-up call, as the relatively small magnitude earthquake - 7.1 - could not generate tsunami waves up to 15m high at the coast. The submarine slump was clearly visible on the multibeam and associated seabed sampling confirmed that it was a recent event. Subsequent research proved that the landslide generated the tsunami as, again for the first time the multibeam was used as the basis for the tsunami simulations. Since 1999 many submarine landslides have been mapped, but not all have an associated identified tsunami. Some landslides are associated with earthquakes and this causes confusion if there is an anomalously large tsunami for example Alaska, 1946 and Java, 2006. Others are suspected of causing a tsunami, but their evidence on the seabed is hard to identify as with Messina, 1908. The most confusing recent tsunami event has been 2011 Japan tsunami, where a submarine landslide to the north of the main rupture is almost certainly responsible for the 40m high coastal waves that struck northern Honshu. The seabed has now been mapped on a broadscale by satellite gravity, but maps from this method cannot identify any but the largest seabed morphologies; most submarine landslides cannot therefore be recognised. Large seabed areas still remain unmapped to

  10. The Three Tsunamis

    Antcliff, Richard R.

    2007-01-01

    We often talk about how different our world is from our parent's world. We then extrapolate this thinking to our children and try to imagine the world they will face. This is hard enough. However, change is changing! The rate at which change is occurring is accelerating. These new ideas, technologies and ecologies appear to be coming at us like tsunamis. Our approach to responding to these oncoming tsunamis will frame the future our children will live in. There are many of these tsunamis; I am just going to focus on three really big ones heading our way.

  11. UncertiantyQuantificationinTsunamiEarlyWarningCalculations

    Anunziato, Alessandro

    2016-04-01

    The objective of the Tsunami calculations is the estimation of the impact of waves caused by large seismic events on the coasts and the determination of potential inundation areas. In the case of Early Warning Systems, i.e. systems that should allow to anticipate the possible effects and give the possibility to react consequently (i.e. issue evacuation of areas at risk), this must be done in very short time (minutes) to be effective. In reality, the above estimation includes several uncertainty factors which make the prediction extremely difficult. The quality of the very first estimations of the seismic parameters is not very precise: the uncertainty in the determination of the seismic components (location, magnitude and depth) decreases with time because as time passes it is possible to use more and more seismic signals and the event characterization becomes more precise. On the other hand other parameters that are necessary to establish for the performance of a calculation (i.e. fault mechanism) are difficult to estimate accurately also after hours (and in some cases remain unknown) and therefore this uncertainty remains in the estimated impact evaluations; when a quick tsunami calculation is necessary (early warning systems) the possibility to include any possible future variation of the conditions to establish the "worst case scenario" is particularly important. The consequence is that the number of uncertain parameters is so large that it is not easy to assess the relative importance of each of them and their effect on the predicted results. In general the complexity of system computer codes is generated by the multitude of different models which are assembled into a single program to give the global response for a particular phenomenon. Each of these model has associated a determined uncertainty coming from the application of that model to single cases and/or separated effect test cases. The difficulty in the prediction of a Tsunami calculation response is

  12. CATASTROPHIC FLANK COLLAPSE ON TA’U ISLAND AND SUBSEQUENT TSUNAMI: HAS THIS OCCURRED DURING THE LAST 170 YEARS?

    Shaun Williams

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Ta’u, the easternmost inhabited island in the Samoan Islands archipelago, exhibits a series of down-faulted benches on its southern flank, believed to be the remnant of ~30 km3 catastrophic collapse. A historical map of Ta’u charted in 1839 during the United States Exploring Expedition, which did not show the benches, suggests that the event occurred less than 170 years ago. A collapse event of this magnitude would have generated a locally devastating tsunami, with possible impacts experienced at the regional level. However, no written or oral records of such an event exist. A number of key questions thus emerge, and formed the basis for this study. Did this event actually happen within the last 170 years, and if so, how and why could it have gone unnoticed? Or, is the event much older than the impression obtained from the literature? The catastrophic flank collapse was modeled using 100 m contour-resolution bathymetry data of the Ta’u region, coupled with rational assumptions made on the geometry of the failed mass. This enabled numerical landslide- tsunami simulation in the Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT. The results indicate that if an event of this magnitude occurred in the last 170 years, it could not have gone unnoticed by local inhabitants. It thus seems likely that the initial survey conducted during the Exploring Expedition was inaccurate. Nevertheless, the well-preserved nature of the benches indicates collapse relatively recently and raises the possibility of future collapse.

  13. A~probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

    N. Horspool

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence based decision making on risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc, with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA for Indonesia. This assessment produces time independent forecasts of tsunami hazard at the coast from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte-carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and through sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500–2500 years, the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting larger maximum magnitudes along the Sunda Arc. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height at the coast of > 0.5 m is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda Islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of >3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1–10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1–1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

  14. Forecasting database for the tsunami warning center for the western Mediterranean and North-East Atlantic basins

    Gailler, A.; Hebert, H.; Loevenbruck, A.; Hernandez, B.

    2011-12-01

    Improvements in the availability of sea-level observations and advances in numerical modeling techniques are increasing the potential for tsunami warnings to be based on numerical model forecasts. Numerical tsunami propagation and inundation models are well developed, but they present a challenge to run in real-time, partly due to computational limitations and also to a lack of detailed knowledge on the earthquake rupture parameters. A first generation model-based tsunami prediction system is being developed as part of the French Tsunami Warning Center that will be operational by mid 2012. It involves a pre-computed unit source functions database (i.e., a number of tsunami model runs that are calculated ahead of time and stored) corresponding to tsunami scenarios generated by a source of seismic moment 1.75E+19 N.m with a rectangular fault 25 km by 20 km in size and 1 m in slip. The faults of the unit functions are placed adjacent to each other, following the discretization of the main seismogenic faults bounding the western Mediterranean and North-East Atlantic basins. An authomatized composite scenarios calculation tool is implemented to allow the simulation of any tsunami propagation scenario (i.e., of any seismic moment). The strategy is based on linear combinations and scaling of a finite number of pre-computed unit source functions. The number of unit functions involved varies with the magnitude of the wanted composite solution and the combined wave heights are multiplied by a given scaling factor to produce the new arbitrary scenario. Uncertainty on the magnitude of the detected event and inaccuracy on the epicenter location are taken into account in the composite scenarios calculation. For one tsunamigenic event, the tool produces finally 3 warning maps (i.e., most likely, minimum and maximum scenarios) together with the rough decision matrix representation. A no-dimension code representation is chosen to show zones in the main axis of energy at the basin

  15. Geological evidence for historical and older earthquakes and tsunamis along the Nankai Trough, Japan

    Garrett, Ed; De Batist, Marc; Heyvaert, Vanessa M. A.; Hubert-Ferrari, Aurélia; Fujiwara, Osamu; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Brückner, Helmut; Garrett, Philip

    2015-04-01

    In the wake of the devastating 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, the Central Disaster Management Council of the Japanese Cabinet Office issued new guidance for assessing seismic hazards in Japan. Before 2011, seismic hazard assessment relied on source models developed from knowledge of a small number of well-documented historical earthquakes. Less well-known historical earthquakes, including the AD 869 Jōgan Sanriku earthquake, were largely disregarded as their seismic intensities or tsunami heights could not be reconciled with the chosen seismic sources. Following the unexpectedly large size of the Tōhoku earthquake, the Cabinet Office advocated renewed investigation of earthquake and tsunami occurrence over historical and longer timescales, with a particular focus on defining the largest possible magnitudes. The new guidelines pay close attention to the Nankai Trough, the subduction zone where the Philippine Sea Plate dives beneath the Eurasian Plate. The Nankai Trough faces the densely populated and highly industrialised coastline of south central Japan and harbours a widely-known seismic gap along its eastern Tōkai segment. A full-length rupture of the Nankai Trough, including the Tōkai segment, could produce an earthquake with a magnitude approaching that of the 2011 event, with tsunami travel times to the closest shorelines of less than 30 minutes. We review geological evidence for historical and older earthquakes and tsunamis along the Nankai Trough. This evidence comes from a wide variety of sources, including uplifted marine terraces, subsided marshes, liquefaction features, turbidites and tsunami deposits in coastal lakes and lowlands. Examining papers published before and after 2011, we investigate the impact of the new Cabinet Office guidelines on attempts to understand the magnitude and recurrence of these events. Additionally, we introduce the Belgian Science Policy Office funded QuakeRecNankai project, a collaboration aiming to supplement

  16. Field Survey of the 1945 Makran and 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunamis in Baluchistan, Iran

    Okal, Emile A.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Hamzeh, Mohammad Ali; Ghasemzadeh, Javad

    2015-12-01

    We report the result of a 2010 survey of the effects on the Iranian coastline of the tsunami which followed the earthquake of 27 November 1945 ( M 0 = 2.8 × 1028 dyn cm; M w = 8.2), the only large event recorded along the Makran subduction zone since the onset of instrumental seismology. Based on the interview of elderly survivors of the event, we obtained a database of nine values of run-up or splash amplitudes on a segment of shore extending 280 km from Souraf in the West to Pasabandar near the Pakistani border, and ranging in vertical amplitude from 2.3 to 13.7 m. Witness reports are consistent with a significant delay (estimated at ~2.5 h) of the tsunami waves, suggesting that they were generated by an ancillary phenomenon, such as a landslide triggered by the earthquake. None of our witnesses bore ancestral memory of comparable events in the past, suggesting that reported predecessors to the 1945 earthquake may have been smaller in size. The survey also allowed the compilation of previously unreported data concerning the effects of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman tsunami.

  17. Tsunamis: Water Quality

    ... Planning Information on Specific Types of Emergencies Tsunamis: Water Quality Language: English Español (Spanish) Recommend on Facebook ... about testing should be directed to local authorities. Water for Drinking, Cooking, and Personal Hygiene Safe water ...

  18. Tsunamis and marine life

    Rao, D.V.S.; Ingole, B.S.; Tang, D.; Satyanarayan, B.; Zhao, H.

    , 2005), India, augmented by observations made by agencies in Sri Lanka and Indonesia. The tsunami impacted both the oceanic waters and the near-shore waters. The massive dislocation of sub-surface deep waters was similar to an upwelling...

  19. Tsunamis: Sanitation and Hygiene

    ... on Specific Types of Emergencies Tsunamis: Sanitation and Hygiene Language: English Español (Spanish) Recommend on Facebook Tweet ... critical for you to remember to practice basic hygiene during the emergency period. Always wash your hands ...

  20. Re-evaluation of Probable Maximum Tsunamis for Korean Nuclear Power Plant Sites

    Jin, Sobeom; Hyun, Seung Gyu; Park, Sang ho; Bae, Jae Seok; Cho, Yong-Sik; Yoon, Sung Bum

    2014-05-01

    Most of tsunami-triggering earthquakes occur in subduction zones around the Pacific Ocean area including the East Sea surrounded by Korea, Japan and Russia. In the East Sea, there were three major historical tsunami events occurred in 1964, 1983 and 1993. Among them, the Central East Sea Tsunami occurred in 1983, in special, caused huge losses of human lives and property damage at Korean coastal communities. There are several nuclear power plants under operation and several more plants will be built along the eastern coast of the Korean Peninsula. These historical tsunamis were considered individually to evaluate the probable maximum tsunamis for Korean nuclear power plant sites. Recently, several catastrophic tsunamis have been occurred around the Pacific Ocean rim. Among them, the East Japan Tsunami occurred on March 11, 2011 has attracted social attention due to the accident at Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant site. The accident is still going on. Therefore, new approach to evaluate the probable maximum tsunamis for the Korean sites is investigated in this study. Joint rupture of historical tsunami sources and hypothetical tsunami sources is employed to define the new source parameters of the probable maximum tsunami. The hypothetical tsunamis are inferred from the seismic gap theories. The numerical model using the modified leap-frog finite difference scheme is used to simulate the propagation of the new probable maximum tsunami across the East Sea and the numerical model simulating the associated run-up process of tsunamis is then employed to estimate the maximum run-up heights. Predicted results will be used to make a measure against unexpected tsunami attacks.

  1. Numerical simulation of tsunami-scale wave boundary layers

    Williams, Isaac A.; Fuhrman, David R.

    2016-01-01

    , boundary layer thickness, turbulence, and bed shear stresses induced are systematically monitored and parameterised, under both hydraulically smooth and roughbed conditions. The results generally support a notion that the boundary layers induced by tsunami-scalewaves are both current-like, due...... layer properties beneath wind-waves maintain reasonable accuracy when extrapolated to full tsunami scales. Boundary layers driven by actual field-measured tsunami signals are likewise simulated, stemming from both the 2004 Indian Ocean as well as the 2011 Tohoku events. These results are reconciled...

  2. Modeling of influence from remote tsunami at the coast of Sakhalin and Kuriles islands.

    Zaytsev, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet; Chernov, Anton; Kostenko, Irina

    2010-05-01

    The Far East coast of Russia (Kuriles islands, Sakhalin, Kamchatka) is the area where the dangerous natural phenomena as tsunami is located. A lot of works are established for decreasing of tsunami's influence. Tsunami mapping and mitigation strategy are given for some regions. The centers of Tsunami Warning System are opened, enough plenty of records of a tsunami are collected. The properties of local tsunami are studied well. At the same time, the catastrophic event of the Indonesian tsunami, which had happened in December, 2004, when the sufficient waves have reached the coasts of Africa and South America, it is necessary to note, that the coats, which was far from the epicenter of earthquakes can be effected by catastrophic influence. Moreover, it is practically unique case, when using Tsunami Warning System can reduce the number of human victims to zero. Development of the computer technologies, numerical methods for the solution of systems of the nonlinear differential equations makes computer modeling real and hypothetical tsunamis is the basic method of studying features of distribution of waves in water areas and their influence at coast. Numerical modeling of distribution of historical tsunami from the seismic sources in the Pacific Ocean was observed. The events with an epicenter, remote from Far East coast of Russia were considered. The estimation of the remote tsunami waves propagation was developed. Impact force of tsunamis was estimated. The features of passage of tsunami through Kuril Straits were considered. The spectral analysis of records in settlements of Sakhalin and Kuriles is lead. NAMI-DANCE program was used for tsunami propagation numerical modeling. It is used finite element numerical schemes for Shallow Water Equations and Nonlinear-Dispersive Equations, with use Nested Grid.

  3. Ofu and Ologesa survey of the 29 September 2009 tsunami

    Foteinis, S.; Synolakis, C.; Titov, V. V.

    2009-12-01

    On 29 September 2009 an Mw~8.0 earthquake struck the Samoan Islands generating a tsunami at least 189 deaths and substantial damage to many coastal infrastructure. An incarnation of the ITST surveyed the impacted region between 4 Oct and 11 Oct measuring inundation per the protocol discussed in Synolakis and Okal (2005). We report here survey results from Ofu and Ologesa, two sparsely populated adjacent islands connected with a bridge. No human casualties were reported. Buildings did not sustain substantial damage, due to light construction materials and open wood frame construction. The strongest effects of the tsunami were recorded in the northern part of Ofu, with runup ranging to 6.1m, with 50m inundation. The longest inundation distance was 74 m (3m runup), in Ofu village. The runup at the airport was 3.9m and inundation 27m. Near the bridge there is motel where runup reached 5.1m with 50m inundation. On the north of Ologessa at Sili village, runup ranged up to 4m with inundation less than 25m. Iin Ologessa village, runup ranged from 2.7m to 4.4m and inundation from 5 to 55m. By serendipity, the team of surveyors experienced a tsunami warning while working in a fairly vulnerable locale. The warning resulted from the 7 October 2009 Mw ~7.6, off Vanuatu . The evacuation message was broadcast by a passing police vehicle in the sole road connecting Ofu and the Ologesa. There was no information where to evacuate to. With the exception of a school bus that drove children from the sole school of the island, evacuations were orderly with care for the elderly and special needs neighbors, although the latter were delayed for tens of minutes on some neighborhoods. In this regard, had there been a real local tsunami, the school bus would had been swept away as allegedly happened in Poloa. For over three hours, there was no further information provided, and residents relied on unofficial reports from radio stations in Samoa relating that there had been no tsunami generated

  4. Elements of the tsunami precursors' detection physics

    Novik, Oleg; Ruzhin, Yuri; Ershov, Sergey; Volgin, Max; Smirnov, Fedor

    In accordance with the main physical principles and geophysical data, we formulated a nonlinear mathematical model of seismo-hydro-electromagnetic (EM) geophysical field interaction and calculated generation and propagation of elastic, EM, temperature and hydrodynamic seismically generated disturbances (i.e. signals) in the basin of a marginal sea. We show transferring of seismic and electromagnetic (EM) energy from the upper mantle beneath the sea into its depths and EM emission from the sea surface into the atmosphere. Basing on the calculated characteristics of the signals of different physical nature (computations correspond to measurements of other authors) we develop the project of a Lithosphere-Ocean-Atmosphere Monitoring System (LOAMS) including: a bottom complex, a moored ocean surface buoy complex, an observational balloon complex, and satellite complex. The underwater stations of the bottom complex of the LOAMS will record the earlier signals of seismic activation beneath a seafloor (the ULF EM signals outrun seismic ones, according to the above calculations) and localize the seafloor epicenter of an expected seaquake. These stations will be equipped, in particular, with: magnetometers, the lines for the electric field measurements, and magneto-telluric blocks to discover dynamics of physical parameters beneath a sea floor as signs of a seaquake and/or tsunami preparation process. The buoy and balloon complexes of the LOAMS will record the meteorological and oceanographic parameters' variations including changes of reflection from a sea surface (tsunami ‘shadows’) caused by a tsunami wave propagation. Cables of the balloon and moored buoy will be used as receiving antennas and for multidisciplinary measurements including gradients of the fields (we show the cases are possible when the first seismic EM signal will be registered by an antenna above a sea). Also, the project includes radio-tomography with satellite instrumentation and sounding of the

  5. Historical Tsunami Deposits on the Sanriku Coast, Japan

    Goto, T.; Satake, K.; Sugai, T.; Ishibe, T.; Harada, T.; Murotani, S.

    2013-12-01

    At least six layers of tsunami deposit during the recent 500 years were found in a small valley on the Sanriku coast, just north of Taro (Miyako city, Iwate prefecture), where the 2011 tsunami heights from the Tohoku earthquake ranged from 17 to 34 m. The Sanriku coast is a Ria coast characterized by sawtooth-shaped coastline. Because of the steep-sloped valleys, alluvial deposits are very limited and tsunami traces are difficult to be preserved. Around the survey site, however, a marsh is separated from open sea by a beach ridge with the maximum altitude of about 4.5 m above mean sea level. In the marsh, well-decomposed peat has been developed. The sand deposits were brought by large tsunamis over the beach ridge and preserved in the marsh peat. We conducted drilling survey using the 3-m long Geo-slicer, trench survey, and outcrop observations. We sketch the sedimentary structure, conduct grain size analysis, reconstruct paleo-environment from microfossils, estimate the deposition age on the basis of radiocarbon dating and 210Pb/137Cs analysis, and correlate them with historical tsunamis. The uppermost sand layer which covers the ground surface is probably due to the 2011 tsunami. At least six event deposit layers can be identified in Geo-slicer's sample. Some sandy layers show normal or inverse grading structures and/or lamination, indicating a strong water flow. Some sand layers can be traced up to 400 m inland from the coast, while others can be identified only near the coast. The sandy layers well correlate with abrupt increases in marine microfossils floating near the sea surface. We use it as indicators of inflow of sea water into the marsh. The bottom peat layer of Geo-slicer's sample shows the AD 15th century, indicating that all the sand layers are from tsunamis in historical age during the recent 500 years. These tsunami deposits can be correlated with local tsunamis or distant tsunamis on the basis of radiocarbon dating and 210Pb/137Cs analysis

  6. No-source tsunami forecasting for Alaska communities

    Tolkova, E.; Nicolsky, D.; Suleimani, E.

    2014-12-01

    The presented tsunami forecasting technique employs observations of the approaching tsunami at DART stations near the Aleutian trench to provide fast local forecasts for the Alaska communities. The suggested technique yields a prediction independent of the tsunami source estimate; increases forecast accuracy by using observations close to the target area; allows for checking the accuracy of the inversion-based forecast before the wave hits the coast. We demonstrate this forecasting technology, introduced in (Power and Tolkova, 2013, Ocean Dynamics, 63(11), 1213-1232), with imitating real-time forecasts of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami at several coastal sites in Alaska (to be compared with the gage records). The coastal forecasts are generated as the wave is registered at regional DART stations (46402, 46043, 46409, 46410). Note that while the DART array spans the Pacific Rim, the inversion-based forecasting methodologies can incorporate data from only 1-3 stations in the vicinity of the tsunami origin. We present a forecasting method which complements existing forecasting tools by using tsunami observations in a region to generate regional predictions independent of the tsunami source estimate. This method allows to utilize observing capabilities of the DART array, as well as tsunami detectors in cabled underwater networks (e.g. NEPTUNE in Canada). Future instrumentation on submarine communication cables will supply larger selection of open-ocean measurements and many more opportunities for this method. Figure: (Top) record of the 2012/10/28 Haida Gwaii tsunami at DART 46411; (Bottom) the tsunami record at Monterey tide gage (red) and its forecast (blue). The forecast is been made as the wave is been registered at the DART one hour before arriving at the gage (Power and Tolkova, 2013).

  7. Major Tsunamis of 1992 - Nicaragua and Indonesia

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — At 7:16 p.m. on September 1, 1992, an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.0 generated a tsunami with waves between eight and fifteen meters high that struck twenty-six...

  8. Event-by-event generation of vorticity in heavy-ion collisions

    Deng, Wei-Tian

    2016-01-01

    In a noncentral heavy-ion collision, the two colliding nuclei have finite angular momentum in the direction perpendicular to the reaction plane. After the collision, a fraction of the total angular momentum is retained in the produced hot quark-gluon matter and is manifested in the form of fluid shear. Such fluid shear creates finite flow vorticity. We study some features of such generated vorticity, including its strength, beam energy dependence, centrality dependence, and spatial distribution.

  9. The 2009 South Pacific tsunami - implications for tsunami hazard in the South Pacific

    Power, William; Wilson, Kate; Prasetya, Gegar; Bradley, Brendon; Wang, Xiaoming; Beavan, John; Holden, Caroline

    2010-05-01

    On 29 September 2009 a Mw8.0 earthquake at the northern end of the Tonga Trench created a tsunami with a devastating impact on the islands of Tutuila (American Samoa), Upolu (Samoa) and Niuatoputapu (Tonga). The intensity of the tsunami impact on islands close to the source was surprising for an earthquake of this magnitude, which is presumably a consequence of an unusual earthquake source. Moment tensor solutions suggest a mechanism of normal faulting in the outer-rise though this is not fully consistent with the polarity of waves observed at DART buoys within the Pacific. The written history of tsunami in the southwest Pacific is relatively short, especially for the Tonga-Kermadec-Hikurangi trench, and includes few events; consequently the question ‘How typical is this event of tsunami from this subduction zone?' is critical for understanding the tsunami hazard of the region. An important source of information on the tsunami comes from post-event surveys. Researchers from GNS Science participated in survey teams on each of the three strongly affected islands. Information collected by these surveys is very varied, and includes: estimates of physical parameters such as the distribution of run-up heights, flow depths, and inundation distances; engineering observations regarding the damage to, and relative fragility of, different types of buildings and infrastructure; observations of environmental impact and the role of the environmental factors, such as coral reefs, forests, and sand dunes, on influencing the tsunami impact; and observations of the response to the events by the local communities. This presentation will include a summary of the main findings from these surveys. The earthquake source for this event appears to have an unusual mechanism for a tsunamigenic earthquake, and to be relatively complex. Attempts to invert for the source using any one of the various collected datasets - the survey data described above, DART buoy sea level records, geodetic

  10. COMPARATIVE NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE TOHOKU 2011 TSUNAMI

    Baranova N.A.

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The comparative numerical simulation of generation and propagation of tsunami waves generated by the source of the catastrophic 2011 Tohoku earthquake in Japan was performed based on the Okada model and the dynamic keyboard block model. The initial model is connected with the choice of orientation of longitudinal and transverse ruptures within the source region and the values of displacements along the main fault. A subsequent model is based on the premise that the initial stress distribution along the fault zone affects essentially the character of movements around the earthquake source and takes into account the stress-strain state of keyboard blocks. In the first case of the present study, the earthquake source was designated and constructed based on the parameters of the ten largest aftershocks within a finite time interval, while in the second case the source used included all aftershocks on the first day following the main event. Based on such comparative source simulations and far-field tsunami wave measurements, the results with both models were determined to have close similarities. However, in the near-field zone, the agreement with observable data was not as good. That can be attributed to inaccuracies in the placement of virtual tide gauges relative to real ones, as well as to features of bottom relief near the coast.

  11. The Great 1787 Corralero, Oaxaca, Tsunami Uncovered

    Ramirez-Herrera, M.; Lagos, M.; Goguitchaichrili, A.; Aguilar, B.; Machain-Castillo, M. L.; Caballero, M.; Ruíz-Fernández, A. C.; Suarez, G.; Ortuño, M.

    2013-05-01

    In 28th March 1787, more than two centuries ago, a deadly tsunami (related to the the San Sixto earthquake) poured over the coast of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Chiapas, along more than 500 km of the Mexican Pacific coast and up to 6 km inland, the tsunami destroyed mostly farmlands, and livestock and few villages since the density of population was sparse at the time, according to known historical accounts. We report the first geological evidence from the Corralero (Alotengo) lagoon coastal area to support these historical accounts. A transect was made with coring and test pits every 100 m from the coastline and up to 1.6 km inland. The test pits showed an anomalous sand layer that had been deposited in a single event in the swales of a series of beach ridges. The anomalous layer is continuous along the transect, about a 1000 m-long, and is formed of coarse to medium sand, at about 36 to 64 cm depth. It thickness varies, averaging 28 cm in the middle of a swale. Based on the accounts of the 1787 earthquake (M 8.6) and tsunami, we deduced that this might be the evidence of its existence. As the only major tsunami described at that time, the San Sixto earthquake-triggered tsunami. We used the stratigraphy, grain size, microfossils (foraminifera and diatoms), magnetic properties such as magnetic susceptibility, remanent magnetization analyses to reveal the nature of this anomalous sand layer. These proxies support a sudden and rapid event, consisting of sands transported by an extreme sea-wave inland. Further analysis will confirm the estimated age of this event.

  12. Validation of Monte Carlo event generators in the ATLAS Collaboration for LHC Run 2

    The ATLAS collaboration

    2016-01-01

    This note reviews the main steps followed by the ATLAS Collaboration to validate the properties of particle-level simulated events from Monte Carlo event generators in order to ensure the correctness of all event generator configurations and production samples used in physics analyses. A central validation procedure is adopted which permits the continual validation of the functionality and the performance of the ATLAS event simulation infrastructure. Revisions and updates of the Monte Carlo event generators are also monitored. The methodology behind the validation and tools developed for that purpose, as well as various usage cases, are presented. The strategy has proven to play an essential role in identifying possible problems or unwanted features within a restricted timescale, verifying their origin and pointing to possible bug fixes before full-scale processing is initiated.

  13. Identification and classification of dynamic event tree scenarios via possibilistic clustering: application to a steam generator tube rupture event.

    Mercurio, D; Podofillini, L; Zio, E; Dang, V N

    2009-11-01

    This paper illustrates a method to identify and classify scenarios generated in a dynamic event tree (DET) analysis. Identification and classification are carried out by means of an evolutionary possibilistic fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm which takes into account not only the final system states but also the timing of the events and the process evolution. An application is considered with regards to the scenarios generated following a steam generator tube rupture in a nuclear power plant. The scenarios are generated by the accident dynamic simulator (ADS), coupled to a RELAP code that simulates the thermo-hydraulic behavior of the plant and to an operators' crew model, which simulates their cognitive and procedures-guided responses. A set of 60 scenarios has been generated by the ADS DET tool. The classification approach has grouped the 60 scenarios into 4 classes of dominant scenarios, one of which was not anticipated a priori but was "discovered" by the classifier. The proposed approach may be considered as a first effort towards the application of identification and classification approaches to scenarios post-processing for real-scale dynamic safety assessments. PMID:19819366

  14. The tectonic source of the 1755 Lisbon earthquake and tsunami

    L. Torelli

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The SW continental margin of Iberia is affected by several tectonic structures of Cenozoic to Recent age, gen-erated by the dynamics of the Iberia-Africa plate margin. This activity is testified by diffuse seismicity along the eastern portion of the Azores-Gibraltar line. The most important active structure, detected during a reflection seismic survey in 1992, is a thrust-fault, some 50 km long and with dip-slip throw of more than 1 km, located offshore Cabo de S. Vincente. A relocation of historical earthquakes in the area shows that this structure lies very close to the epicentre of the catastrophic 1755 Lisbon earthquake and that it should be the generator of the event. This submarine structure can now be studied for modelization of tsunamis and consequent risk mitigation.

  15. Detecting complex events in user-generated video using concept classifiers

    Guo, Jinlin; Scott, David; Hopfgartner, Frank; Gurrin, Cathal

    2012-01-01

    Automatic detection of complex events in user-generated videos (UGV) is a challenging task due to its new characteristics differing from broadcast video. In this work, we firstly summarize the new characteristics of UGV, and then explore how to utilize concept classifiers to recognize complex events in UGV content. The method starts from manually selecting a variety of relevant concepts, followed byconstructing classifiers for these concepts. Finally, complex event detectors are learned by...

  16. Forecasting database for the tsunami warning regional center for the western Mediterranean Sea

    Gailler, A.; Hebert, H.; Loevenbruck, A.; Hernandez, B.

    2010-12-01

    Improvements in the availability of sea-level observations and advances in numerical modeling techniques are increasing the potential for tsunami warnings to be based on numerical model forecasts. Numerical tsunami propagation and inundation models are well developed, but they present a challenge to run in real-time, partly due to computational limitations and also to a lack of detailed knowledge on the earthquake rupture parameters. Through the establishment of the tsunami warning regional center for NE Atlantic and western Mediterranean Sea, the CEA is especially in charge of providing rapidly a map with uncertainties showing zones in the main axis of energy at the Mediterranean scale. The strategy is based initially on a pre-computed tsunami scenarios database, as source parameters available a short time after an earthquake occurs are preliminary and may be somewhat inaccurate. Existing numerical models are good enough to provide a useful guidance for warning structures to be quickly disseminated. When an event will occur, an appropriate variety of offshore tsunami propagation scenarios by combining pre-computed propagation solutions (single or multi sources) may be recalled through an automatic interface. This approach would provide quick estimates of tsunami offshore propagation, and aid hazard assessment and evacuation decision-making. As numerical model accuracy is inherently limited by errors in bathymetry and topography, and as inundation maps calculation is more complex and expensive in term of computational time, only tsunami offshore propagation modeling will be included in the forecasting database using a single sparse bathymetric computation grid for the numerical modeling. Because of too much variability in the mechanism of tsunamigenic earthquakes, all possible magnitudes cannot be represented in the scenarios database. In principle, an infinite number of tsunami propagation scenarios can be constructed by linear combinations of a finite number of

  17. Effects of self-generated versus experimenter-provided cues on the representation of future events.

    Neroni, Maria Adriana; Gamboz, Nadia; de Vito, Stefania; Brandimonte, Maria Antonella

    2016-01-01

    Most experimental studies of prospection focused on episodic forms of future events prompted by means of verbal cues. However, there is evidence suggesting that future events differ considerably according to whether they are produced in response to external, experimenter-provided verbal cues or they are self-generated. In the present study, we compared the quality, the phenomenal characteristics, the temporal distribution, and the content of imagined events prompted by experimenter-provided cues (i.e., cue-words and short verbal sentences) or elicited by means of verbal cues that were self-generated in an autobiographical fluency task. The results showed that future events prompted by means of self-generated cues contained fewer event-specific details than future events prompted by experimenter-provided cues. However, future events elicited by means of self-generated and by experimenter-provided cues did not differ with respect to their phenomenal characteristics. The temporal distribution and the thematic content of future representations were also affected by the type of cue used to elicit prospection. These results offer a holistic view of the properties of future thinking and suggest that the content and the characteristics of envisioned future events may be affected by the method used to elicit prospection. PMID:26444043

  18. Food Safety After a Tsunami

    ... Hurricanes Landslides Tornadoes Tsunamis Volcanoes Wildfires Winter Weather Food Safety After a Tsunami Language: English Español (Spanish) ... baby formula that requires no added water. Keeping Foods Cold If available, dry ice can be used ...

  19. Synchronous changes in the seismicity rate and ocean-bottom hydrostatic pressures along the Nankai trough: A possible slow slip event detected by the Dense Oceanfloor Network system for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET)

    Suzuki, Kensuke; Nakano, Masaru; Takahashi, Narumi; Hori, Takane; Kamiya, Shinichiro; Araki, Eiichiro; Nakata, Ryoko; Kaneda, Yoshiyuki

    2016-06-01

    We detected long-term hydrostatic pressure changes at ocean-bottom stations of the Dense Oceanfloor Network system for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET) along the Nankai trough, off southwestern Japan. We detected these changes after removing the contributions of ocean mass variations and sensor drift from the records. In addition, we detected a decrease in the background seismicity rate of a nearby earthquake cluster that was synchronous with the hydrostatic pressure changes. We interpreted these observed hydrostatic pressure changes to reflect vertical deformation of the ocean floor of 3-8 cm, and we consider the cause of the seafloor crustal deformation to be a slow slip event (SSE) beneath the stations. Because the pressure changes were observed at stations with distances less than 20 km to each other, we inferred that the SSE occurred in the shallow part of the sedimentary wedge, such as on a splay fault system. The synchronous observation of an SSE and a seismicity rate change suggests that both were triggered by a change in the regional stress that may be associated with stress accumulation and release processes occurring along the Nankai trough. These data show that continuous and careful monitoring of crustal activities by DONET stations provides an effective way to detect seismic and geodetic signals related to the occurrence of megathrust or other types of large earthquakes.

  20. Negative life events and symptoms of depression and anxiety: Stress causation and/or stress generation

    Anna C Phillips; Carroll, Douglas; Van, Geoffrey

    2015-01-01

    Background and Objectives: Stressful life events are known to contribute to development of depression, however, it is possible this link is bi-directional. The present study examined whether such stress generation effects are greater than the effects of stressful life events on depression, and whether stress generation is also evident with anxiety. Design: Participants were two large age cohorts (N = 732 aged 44 years; N = 705 aged 63 years) from the West of Scotland Twenty-07 study. Methods:...

  1. Quantification of source uncertainties in Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA)

    Selva, J.; Tonini, R.; Molinari, I.; Tiberti, M. M.; Romano, F.; Grezio, A.; Melini, D.; Piatanesi, A.; Basili, R.; Lorito, S.

    2016-06-01

    We propose a procedure for uncertainty quantification in Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), with a special emphasis on the uncertainty related to statistical modelling of the earthquake source in Seismic PTHA (SPTHA), and on the separate treatment of subduction and crustal earthquakes (treated as background seismicity). An event tree approach and ensemble modelling are used in spite of more classical approaches, such as the hazard integral and the logic tree. This procedure consists of four steps: (1) exploration of aleatory uncertainty through an event tree, with alternative implementations for exploring epistemic uncertainty; (2) numerical computation of tsunami generation and propagation up to a given offshore isobath; (3) (optional) site-specific quantification of inundation; (4) simultaneous quantification of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty through ensemble modelling. The proposed procedure is general and independent of the kind of tsunami source considered; however, we implement step 1, the event tree, specifically for SPTHA, focusing on seismic source uncertainty. To exemplify the procedure, we develop a case study considering seismic sources in the Ionian Sea (central-eastern Mediterranean Sea), using the coasts of Southern Italy as a target zone. The results show that an efficient and complete quantification of all the uncertainties is feasible even when treating a large number of potential sources and a large set of alternative model formulations. We also find that (i) treating separately subduction and background (crustal) earthquakes allows for optimal use of available information and for avoiding significant biases; (ii) both subduction interface and crustal faults contribute to the SPTHA, with different proportions that depend on source-target position and tsunami intensity; (iii) the proposed framework allows sensitivity and deaggregation analyses, demonstrating the applicability of the method for operational assessments.

  2. 2004 Sumatra Tsunami

    Vongvisessomjai, S.

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available A catastrophic tsunami on December 26, 2004 caused devastation in the coastal region of six southern provinces of Thailand on the Andaman Sea coast. This paper summaries the characteristics of tsunami with the aim of informing and warning the public and reducing future casualties and damage.The first part is a review of the records of past catastrophic tsunamis, namely those in Chile in 1960, Alaska in 1964, and Flores, Java, Indonesia, in 1992, and the lessons drawn from these tsunamis. An analysis and the impact of the 2004 Sumatra tsunami is then presented and remedial measures recommended.Results of this study are as follows:Firstly, the 2004 Sumatra tsunami ranked fourth in terms of earthquake magnitude (9.0 M after those in 1960 in Chile (9.5 M, 1899 in Alaska (9.2 M and 1964 in Alaska (9.1 M and ranked first in terms of damage and casualties. It was most destructive when breaking in shallow water nearshore.Secondly, the best alleviation measures are 1 to set up a reliable system for providing warning at the time of an earthquake in order to save lives and reduce damage and 2 to establish a hazard map and implement land-use zoning in the devastated areas, according to the following principles:- Large hotels located at an elevation of not less than 10 m above mean sea level (MSL- Medium hotels located at an elevation of not less than 6 m above MSL- Small hotel located at elevation below 6 m MSL, but with the first floor elevated on poles to allow passage of a tsunami wave- Set-back distances from shoreline established for various developments- Provision of shelters and evacuation directionsFinally, public education is an essential part of preparedness.

  3. Tsunami hazard assessment in the Ionian Sea due to potential tsunamogenic sources – results from numerical simulations

    Tselentis, G-A.; G. Stavrakakis; E. Sokos; F. Gkika; A. Serpetsidaki

    2010-01-01

    In spite of the fact that the great majority of seismic tsunami is generated in ocean domains, smaller basins like the Ionian Sea sometimes experience this phenomenon. In this investigation, we study the tsunami hazard associated with the Ionian Sea fault system.

    A scenario-based method is used to provide an estimation of the tsunami hazard in this region for the first time. Realistic faulting parameters related to four probable seismic sources, with tsunami potential, ar...

  4. Research on generation mechanism of single event transient current generated in the semiconductor using ion accelerator

    Single-event upset (SEU) is triggered when an amount of electric charges induced by energetic ion incidence exceeds a value known as a critical charge in a very short time period. Therefore, accurate evaluation of electric charge and understanding of basic mechanism of SEU are necessary for the improvement of SEU torrance of electronic devices. In this paper, the collected charges for the single event transient current induced on semiconductor by heavy ion microbeams, and application to use microbeam for single event studies are presented. (author)

  5. Observing Tsunamis in the Ionosphere Using Ground Based GPS Measurements

    Galvan, D. A.; Komjathy, A.; Song, Y. Tony; Stephens, P.; Hickey, M. P.; Foster, J.

    2011-01-01

    Ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) show variations consistent with atmospheric internal gravity waves caused by ocean tsunamis following recent seismic events, including the Tohoku tsunami of March 11, 2011. We observe fluctuations correlated in time, space, and wave properties with this tsunami in TEC estimates processed using JPL's Global Ionospheric Mapping Software. These TEC estimates were band-pass filtered to remove ionospheric TEC variations with periods outside the typical range of internal gravity waves caused by tsunamis. Observable variations in TEC appear correlated with the Tohoku tsunami near the epicenter, at Hawaii, and near the west coast of North America. Disturbance magnitudes are 1-10% of the background TEC value. Observations near the epicenter are compared to estimates of expected tsunami-driven TEC variations produced by Embry Riddle Aeronautical University's Spectral Full Wave Model, an atmosphere-ionosphere coupling model, and found to be in good agreement. The potential exists to apply these detection techniques to real-time GPS TEC data, providing estimates of tsunami speed and amplitude that may be useful for future early warning systems.

  6. Historical tsunami database for France and its overseas territories

    J. Lambert

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available A search and analysis of a large number of historical documents has made it possible: (i to discover so-far unknown tsunamis that have hit the French coasts during the last centuries, and (ii conversely, to disprove the tsunami nature of several events referred to in recent catalogues. This information has been structured into a database and also made available as a website (tsunamis.f/" target="_blank">http://www.tsunamis.fr that is accessible in French, English and Spanish. So far 60 genuine ("true" tsunamis have been described (with their dates, causes, oceans/seas, places observed, number of waves, flood and ebb distances, run-up, and intensities and referenced against contemporary sources. Digitized documents are accessible online. In addition, so as to avoid confusion, tsunamis revealed as "false" or "doubtful" have been compiled into a second catalogue.

    Both the database and the website are updated annually corresponding to the state of knowledge, so as to take into account newly discovered historical references and the occurrence of new tsunamis on the coasts of France and many of its overseas territories: Guadeloupe, Martinique, French Guiana, New Caledonia, Réunion, and Mayotte.

  7. The March 2011 Japan tsunami

    Tappin, Dave

    2011-01-01

    The March 11th 2011 Tohoku-iki earthquake was the fifth largest on Earth in the last 50 years, it created one of the most devastating tsunamis in history. Dave Tappin describes the background to the tsunami and its impact based on his research on tsunamis and visits to Japan over the past three months.

  8. Sources of information for tsunami forecasting in New Zealand

    Barberopoulou, A.; Ristau, J. P.; D'Anastasio, E.; Wang, X.

    2013-12-01

    Tsunami science has evolved considerably in the last two decades due to technological advancements which also helped push for better numerical modelling of the tsunami phases (generation to inundation). The deployment of DART buoys has also been a considerable milestone in tsunami forecasting. Tsunami forecasting is one of the parts that tsunami modelling feeds into and is related to response, preparedness and planning. Usually tsunami forecasting refers to short-term forecasting that takes place in real-time after a tsunami has or appears to have been generated. In this report we refer to all types of forecasting (short-term or long-term) related to work in advance of a tsunami impacting a coastline that would help in response, planning or preparedness. We look at the standard types of data (seismic, GPS, water level) that are available in New Zealand for tsunami forecasting, how they are currently being used, other ways to use these data and provide recommendations for better utilisation. The main findings are: -Current investigations of the use of seismic parameters quickly obtained after an earthquake, have potential to provide critical information about the tsunamigenic potential of earthquakes. Further analysis of the most promising methods should be undertaken to determine a path to full implementation. -Network communication of the largest part of the GPS network is not currently at a stage that can provide sufficient data early enough for tsunami warning. It is believed that it has potential, but changes including data transmission improvements may have to happen before real-time processing oriented to tsunami early warning is implemented on the data that is currently provided. -Tide gauge data is currently under-utilised for tsunami forecasting. Spectral analysis, modal analysis based on identified modes and arrival times extracted from the records can be useful in forecasting. -The current study is by no means exhaustive of the ways the different types

  9. Recent Advances in Agent-Based Tsunami Evacuation Simulations: Case Studies in Indonesia, Thailand, Japan and Peru

    Mas, Erick; Koshimura, Shunichi; Imamura, Fumihiko; Suppasri, Anawat; Muhari, Abdul; Adriano, Bruno

    2015-12-01

    As confirmed by the extreme tsunami events over the last decade (the 2004 Indian Ocean, 2010 Chile and 2011 Japan tsunami events), mitigation measures and effective evacuation planning are needed to reduce disaster risks. Modeling tsunami evacuations is an alternative means to analyze evacuation plans and possible scenarios of evacuees' behaviors. In this paper, practical applications of an agent-based tsunami evacuation model are presented to demonstrate the contributions that agent-based modeling has added to tsunami evacuation simulations and tsunami mitigation efforts. A brief review of previous agent-based evacuation models in the literature is given to highlight recent progress in agent-based methods. Finally, challenges are noted for bridging gaps between geoscience and social science within the agent-based approach for modeling tsunami evacuations.

  10. Variations in sea surface roughness induced by the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman tsunami

    O. A. Godin

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Observations of tsunamis away from shore are critically important for improving early warning systems and understanding of tsunami generation and propagation. Tsunamis are difficult to detect and measure in the open ocean because the wave amplitude there is much smaller than it is close to shore. Currently, tsunami observations in deep water rely on measurements of variations in the sea surface height or bottom pressure. Here we demonstrate that there exists a different observable, specifically, ocean surface roughness, which can be used to reveal tsunamis away from shore. The first detailed measurements of the tsunami effect on sea surface height and radar backscattering strength in the open ocean were obtained from satellite altimeters during passage of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman tsunami. Through statistical analyses of satellite altimeter observations, we show that the Sumatra-Andaman tsunami effected distinct, detectable changes in sea surface roughness. The magnitude and spatial structure of the observed variations in radar backscattering strength are consistent with hydrodynamic models predicting variations in the near-surface wind across the tsunami wave front. Tsunami-induced changes in sea surface roughness can be potentially used for early tsunami detection by orbiting microwave radars and radiometers, which have broad surface coverage across the satellite ground track.

  11. Tsunami Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk assessment for the coast of Oman

    Gonzalez, Mauricio; Aniel-Quiroga, Íñigo; Aguirre-Ayerbe, Ignacio; Álvarez-Gómez, José Antonio; MArtínez, Jara; Gonzalez-Riancho, Pino; Fernandez, Felipe; Medina, Raúl; Al-Yahyai, Sultan

    2016-04-01

    Tsunamis are relatively infrequent phenomena representing a greater threat than earthquakes, hurricanes and tornadoes, and causing the loss of thousands of human lives and extensive damage to coastal infrastructures around the world. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of new methodologies in this field. This work presents the methodology that has been followed for developing the tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment for the coast of Oman, including maps containing the results of the process. Oman is located in the south eastern corner of the Arabian Peninsula and of the Arabian plate, in front of the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), which is the major source of earthquakes in the eastern border of the Arabian plate and Oman (Al-Shaqsi, 2012). There are at least three historical tsunamis assigned to seismic origin in the MSZ (Heidarzadeh et al., 2008; Jordan, 2008). These events show the high potential for tsunami generation of the MSZ, being one of the most tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean. For the tsunami hazard assessment, worst potential cases have been selected, as well as the historical case of 1945, when an 8.1 earthquake generated a tsunami affecting the coast of Oman, and prompting 4000 casualties in the countries of the area. These scenarios have been computationally simulated in order to get tsunami hazard maps, including flooding maps. These calculations have been carried out at national and local scale, in 9 municipalities all along the coast of Oman, including the cities of Sohar, Wudam, Sawadi, Muscat, Quriyat, Sur, Masirah, Al Duqm, and Salalah. Using the hazard assessment as input, this work presents as well an integrated framework for the tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment carried out in the Sultanate of Oman. This framework considers different dimensions (human, structural) and it is developed at two different spatial resolutions, national and local scale. The national

  12. The Puerto Rico Component of the National Tsunami Hazard and Mitigation Program Pr-Nthmp

    Huerfano Moreno, V. A.; Hincapie-Cardenas, C. M.

    2014-12-01

    Tsunami hazard assessment, detection, warning, education and outreach efforts are intended to reduce losses to life and property. The Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) is participating in an effort with local and federal agencies, to developing tsunami hazard risk reduction strategies under the National Tsunami Hazards and Mitigation Program (NTHMP). This grant supports the TsunamiReady program which is the base of the tsunami preparedness and mitigation in PR. The Caribbean region has a documented history of damaging tsunamis that have affected coastal areas. The seismic water waves originating in the prominent fault systems around PR are considered to be a near-field hazard for Puerto Rico and the Virgin islands (PR/VI) because they can reach coastal areas within a few minutes after the earthquake. Sources for local, regional and tele tsunamis have been identified and modeled and tsunami evacuation maps were prepared for PR. These maps were generated in three phases: First, hypothetical tsunami scenarios on the basis of the parameters of potential underwater earthquakes were developed. Secondly, each of these scenarios was simulated. The third step was to determine the worst case scenario (MOM). The run-ups were drawn on GIS referenced maps and aerial photographs. These products are being used by emergency managers to educate the public and develop mitigation strategies. Online maps and related evacuation products are available to the public via the PR-TDST (PR Tsunami Decision Support Tool). Currently all the 44 coastal municipalities were recognized as TsunamiReady by the US NWS. The main goal of the program is to declare Puerto Rico as TsunamiReady, including two cities that are not coastal but could be affected by tsunamis. Based on these evacuation maps, tsunami signs were installed, vulnerability profiles were created, communication systems to receive and disseminate tsunami messages were installed in each TWFP, and tsunami response plans were approved

  13. The November 17, 2015 Lefkada offshore (non-?)tsunamigenic earthquake: preliminary considerations and implications for tsunami hazard and warning in the Ionian Sea

    Armigliato, Alberto; Tinti, Stefano; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Ausilia Paparo, Maria; Zaniboni, Filippo

    2016-04-01

    A Mw = 6.5 earthquake occurred on November 17, 2015 just offshore the western coast of the Ionian island of Lefkada (western Greece). The earthquake caused two fatalities and severe damage, especially in the island of Lefkada. Several landslides were set in motion by the earthquake, some of which occurred along the coastal cliffs. The earthquake was clearly felt also along the eastern coasts of Apulia, Calabria and Sicily (Italy). The computed focal mechanisms indicate that the rupture occurred along a dextral strike-slip, sub-vertical fault, compatible with the well-known transcurrent tectonics of the Lefkada-Cephalonia area. At the time of the drafting of this abstract no heterogeneous slip distribution has been proposed. No clear evidence of tsunami effects is available, with the only exception of the signal recorded by the tide gauge in Crotone (eastern Calabria, Italy), where a clear disturbance (still to be fully characterised and explained) emerges from the background at approximately 1 hour after the earthquake origin time. From the tsunami research point of view, the November 17 Lefkada earthquake poses at least two problems, which we try to address in this paper. The first consists in studying the tsunami generation based on the available seismic information and on the tectonic setting of the area. We present results of numerical simulations of the tsunami generation and propagation aimed at casting light on the reasons why the generated tsunami was so weak (or even absent). Starting from the official fault parameters provided by the seismic agencies, we vary a number of them, there including the length and width calculated on the basis of different regression formulas, and the depth. For each configuration we perform tsunami simulations by means of the in-house finite-difference code UBO-TSUFD. In parallel, we analyse the Crotone tide-gauge record in order to understand whether the observed "anomalous" signal can be attributed to a tsunami or not. In the

  14. Alternative tsunami models

    Tan, A; Lyatskaya, I [Department of Physics, Alabama A and M University, Normal, AL 35762 (United States)], E-mail: arjun.tan@aamu.edu

    2009-01-15

    The interesting papers by Margaritondo (2005 Eur. J. Phys. 26 401) and by Helene and Yamashita (2006 Eur. J. Phys. 27 855) analysed the great Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 using a simple one-dimensional canal wave model, which was appropriate for undergraduate students in physics and related fields of discipline. In this paper, two additional, easily understandable models, suitable for the same level of readership, are proposed: one, a two-dimensional model in flat space, and two, the same on a spherical surface. The models are used to study the tsunami produced by the central Kuril earthquake of November 2006. It is shown that the two alternative models, especially the latter one, give better representations of the wave amplitude, especially at far-flung locations. The latter model further demonstrates the enhancing effect on the amplitude due to the curvature of the Earth for far-reaching tsunami propagation.

  15. May Gravity detect Tsunami ?

    Fargion, D

    2004-01-01

    The present gravitational wave detectors are reaching lowest metric deviation fields able to detect galactic and extra-galactic gravitational waves, related to Supernova explosions up to Virgo cluster. The same gravitational wave detector are nevertheless almost able to reveal near field gravitational perturbations due to fast huge mass displacements as the ones occurring during largest Earth-Quake or Tsunami as the last on 26th December 2004 in Asiatic area. The prompt gravitational near field deformation by the Tsunami may reach the LIGO threshold sensitivity within 3000-10000 km distances. Their eventual discover (in LIGO data or in future on-line detector arrays) may offer the most rapid warning alarm system on earth. Nevertheless the later continental mass rearrangement and their gravitational field assessment on Earth must induce, for Richter Magnitude 9 Tsunami, a different terrestrial inertia momentum and a different rotation axis, as well as a detectable shrinking of the Earth radius of nearly R =1.7...

  16. The OPERA event generator and the data tuning of nuclear re-interactions

    The OPERA event generator 'NEGN' is based on an adapted version of the event generator developed for the NOMAD experiment [M. Veltri, presentation at the NUINT01 conference]. It includes all the features implemented in the NOMAD generator which were cross-checked with a large sample of neutrino interactions, finely reconstructed at the level of single particles. This sample allowed for a study of the hadronic system fragmentation and to tune the inclusion of nuclear effects, like the intra-nuclear cascades. Many of these effects are also relevant, for different reasons, in the OPERA simulation

  17. A Global Sensitivity Analysis Method on Maximum Tsunami Wave Heights to Potential Seismic Source Parameters

    Ren, Luchuan

    2015-04-01

    A Global Sensitivity Analysis Method on Maximum Tsunami Wave Heights to Potential Seismic Source Parameters Luchuan Ren, Jianwei Tian, Mingli Hong Institute of Disaster Prevention, Sanhe, Heibei Province, 065201, P.R. China It is obvious that the uncertainties of the maximum tsunami wave heights in offshore area are partly from uncertainties of the potential seismic tsunami source parameters. A global sensitivity analysis method on the maximum tsunami wave heights to the potential seismic source parameters is put forward in this paper. The tsunami wave heights are calculated by COMCOT ( the Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model), on the assumption that an earthquake with magnitude MW8.0 occurred at the northern fault segment along the Manila Trench and triggered a tsunami in the South China Sea. We select the simulated results of maximum tsunami wave heights at specific sites in offshore area to verify the validity of the method proposed in this paper. For ranking importance order of the uncertainties of potential seismic source parameters (the earthquake's magnitude, the focal depth, the strike angle, dip angle and slip angle etc..) in generating uncertainties of the maximum tsunami wave heights, we chose Morris method to analyze the sensitivity of the maximum tsunami wave heights to the aforementioned parameters, and give several qualitative descriptions of nonlinear or linear effects of them on the maximum tsunami wave heights. We quantitatively analyze the sensitivity of the maximum tsunami wave heights to these parameters and the interaction effects among these parameters on the maximum tsunami wave heights by means of the extended FAST method afterward. The results shows that the maximum tsunami wave heights are very sensitive to the earthquake magnitude, followed successively by the epicenter location, the strike angle and dip angle, the interactions effect between the sensitive parameters are very obvious at specific site in offshore area, and there

  18. Towards Tsunami Hazard Assessment for the Coasts of Italy

    Lorito, S.; Romano, F.; Piatanesi, A.; Basili, R.; Kastelic, V.; Tiberti, M.; Valensise, G.; Selva, J.

    2011-12-01

    A reliable Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) requires an enormous computational effort. We are developing an approach for limiting the computational burden while trying to preserve the variability of the tsunamigenic seismic sources. We split the PTHA into two stages: linear PTHA and nonlinear PTHA. In the first stage, we explore a large variety of seismic sources, representing the most likely complete set of potential sources, and estimate the tsunami propagation in the linear approximation for all the considered target coastlines. We then sample the most hazardous sub-regions of the source parameters/target sites space, by assuming zero probability of hazard threshold exceedance for the remainder. With this subset, which forms the basis for the second stage, we generate probabilistic inundation maps for several damage metrics. We present preliminary results of PTHA for the coasts of Italy. To take into account the different levels of knowledge of potential earthquake sources in different areas of the Mediterranean Sea, we define a logic tree that mainly represents the uncertainties related to seismic source existence. We then use an event tree approach for describing the variability of earthquake parameters.

  19. DJpsiFDC:an event generator for the process gg→J/ψJ/ψat the LHC

    QIAO Cong-Feng; WANG Jian; ZHENG Yang-Heng

    2011-01-01

    DJpsiFDC is an event generator package for the process gg→J/ψJ/ψ. It generates events for primary leading-order 2 → 2 processes. The package could generate a Les Houches Event (LHE) document and this could easily be embedded into detector simulation software frameworks. The package is produced in Fortran code.

  20. Benchmarking an Unstructured-Grid Model for Tsunami Current Modeling

    Zhang, Yinglong J.; Priest, George; Allan, Jonathan; Stimely, Laura

    2016-06-01

    We present model results derived from a tsunami current benchmarking workshop held by the NTHMP (National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program) in February 2015. Modeling was undertaken using our own 3D unstructured-grid model that has been previously certified by the NTHMP for tsunami inundation. Results for two benchmark tests are described here, including: (1) vortex structure in the wake of a submerged shoal and (2) impact of tsunami waves on Hilo Harbor in the 2011 Tohoku event. The modeled current velocities are compared with available lab and field data. We demonstrate that the model is able to accurately capture the velocity field in the two benchmark tests; in particular, the 3D model gives a much more accurate wake structure than the 2D model for the first test, with the root-mean-square error and mean bias no more than 2 cm s-1 and 8 mm s-1, respectively, for the modeled velocity.

  1. The 17 July 2006 Tsunami earthquake in West Java, Indonesia

    Mori, J.; Mooney, W.D.; Afnimar; Kurniawan, S.; Anaya, A.I.; Widiyantoro, S.

    2007-01-01

    A tsunami earthquake (Mw = 7.7) occurred south of Java on 17 July 2006. The event produced relatively low levels of high-frequency radiation, and local felt reports indicated only weak shaking in Java. There was no ground motion damage from the earthquake, but there was extensive damage and loss of life from the tsunami along 250 km of the southern coasts of West Java and Central Java. An inspection of the area a few days after the earthquake showed extensive damage to wooden and unreinforced masonry buildings that were located within several hundred meters of the coast. Since there was no tsunami warning system in place, efforts to escape the large waves depended on how people reacted to the earthquake shaking, which was only weakly felt in the coastal areas. This experience emphasizes the need for adequate tsunami warning systems for the Indian Ocean region.

  2. HySEA model verification for Tohoku 2011 Tsunami. Application for mitigation tsunami assessment

    Macias, Jorge; González-Vida, José Manuel; García, Javier; Castro, Manuel; Ortega, Sergio; de la Asunción, Marc

    2015-04-01

    In many aspects Tohoku-Oki 2011 mega tsunami has changed our perception of tsunami risk. The tsunami-HySEA model is used to numerically simulate this event and observed data will we used to verify the model results. Three nested meshes of enhanced resolution (4 arc-min, 32 arc-sec and 2 arc-sec) will be used by the numerical model. The propagation mesh covers all Pacific Ocean with more of 7 million cells. An intermediate mesh with 5 millions cells contains the Japanese archipelago and, finally, two finer meshes, with nearly 8 and 6 millions cells, cover Iwate and Miyagi Prefectures at Tohoku region, the most devastated areas hit by the tsunami. The presentation will focus on the impact of the tsunami wave in these two areas and comparisons with observed data will be performed. DART buoys time series, inundation area and observed runup is used to assess model performance. The arrival time of the leading flooding wave at the vicinity of the Senday airport, as recorded by video cameras, is also used as verification data for the model. After this tsunami, control forests as well as breakwaters has been discussed as suitable mitigation infrastructures. As particular case, we will analyse the evolution of the tsunami in the area around the Sendai airport (Miyagi Prefecture) and its impact on the airport. A second simulation has been performed, assuming the existence of a coastal barrier protecting the area. The role of this barrier in modifying tsunami wave evolution and mitigating flooding effects on the airport area are discussed. The protection effect of the breakwaters near Kamaishi (Iwate Prefecture) is also assessed. The numerical model shows how these structures, although did not provide a full protection to tsunami waves, they helped to largely mitigate its effects in the area. Acknowledgements. This research has been partially supported by the Junta de Andalucía research project TESELA (P11-RNM7069), the Spanish Government Research project DAIFLUID (MTM2012

  3. MadGraph/MadEvent v4: The New Web Generation

    Alwall, Johan; de Visscher, Simon; Frederix, Rikkert; Herquet, Michel; Maltoni, Fabio; Plehn, Tilman; Rainwater, David L; Stelzer, Tim

    2007-01-01

    We present the latest developments of the MadGraph/MadEvent Monte Carlo event generator and several applications to hadron collider physics. In the current version events at the parton, hadron and detector level can be generated directly from a web interface, for arbitrary processes in the Standard Model and in several physics scenarios beyond it (HEFT, MSSM, 2HDM). The most important additions are: a new framework for implementing user-defined new physics models; a standalone running mode for creating and testing matrix elements; generation of events corresponding to different processes, such as signal(s) and backgrounds, in the same run; two platforms for data analysis, where events are accessible at the parton, hadron and detector level; and the generation of inclusive multi-jet samples by combining parton-level events with parton showers. To illustrate the new capabilities of the package some applications to hadron collider physics are presented: 1) Higgs search in pp \\to H \\to W^+W^-: signal and backgrou...

  4. USGS SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Potential Impacts to the U.S. West Coast from a Plausible M9 Earthquake near the Alaska Peninsula

    Ross, S.; Jones, L. M.; Wilson, R. I.; Bahng, B.; Barberopoulou, A.; Borrero, J. C.; Brosnan, D.; Bwarie, J. T.; Geist, E. L.; Johnson, L. A.; Hansen, R. A.; Kirby, S. H.; Knight, E.; Knight, W. R.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K. M.; Mortensen, C. E.; Nicolsky, D.; Oglesby, D. D.; Perry, S. C.; Porter, K. A.; Real, C. R.; Ryan, K. J.; Suleimani, E. N.; Thio, H. K.; Titov, V. V.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2012-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) project, in collaboration with the California Geological Survey, the California Emergency Management Agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and other agencies and institutions are developing a Tsunami Scenario to describe in detail the impacts of a tsunami generated by a hypothetical, but realistic, M9 earthquake near the Alaska Peninsula. The overarching objective of SAFRR and its predecessor, the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, is to help communities reduce losses from natural disasters. As requested by emergency managers and other community partners, a primary approach has been comprehensive, scientifically credible scenarios that start with a model of a geologic event and extend through estimates of damage, casualties, and societal consequences. The first product was the ShakeOut scenario, addressing a hypothetical earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault, that spawned the successful Great California ShakeOut, an annual event and the nation's largest emergency preparedness exercise. That was followed by the ARkStorm scenario, which addresses California winter storms that surpass hurricanes in their destructive potential. Some of the Tsunami Scenario's goals include developing advanced models of currents and inundation for the event; spurring research related to Alaskan earthquake sources; engaging the port and harbor decision makers; understanding the economic impacts to local, regional and national economy in both the short and long term; understanding the ecological, environmental, and societal impacts of coastal inundation; and creating enhanced communication products for decision-making before, during, and after a tsunami event. The state of California, through CGS and Cal EMA, is using the Tsunami Scenario as an opportunity to evaluate policies regarding tsunami impact. The scenario will serve as a long-lasting resource to teach preparedness and

  5. The 25 October 2010 Mentawai tsunami earthquake, from real-time discriminants, finite-fault rupture, and tsunami excitation

    Newman, Andrew V.; Hayes, Gavin P.; Wei, Yong; Convers, Jaime

    2011-01-01

    The moment magnitude 7.8 earthquake that struck offshore the Mentawai islands in western Indonesia on 25 October 2010 created a locally large tsunami that caused more than 400 human causalities. We identify this earthquake as a rare slow-source tsunami earthquake based on: 1) disproportionately large tsunami waves; 2) excessive rupture duration near 125 s; 3) predominantly shallow, near-trench slip determined through finite-fault modeling; and 4) deficiencies in energy-to-moment and energy-to-duration-cubed ratios, the latter in near-real time. We detail the real-time solutions that identified the slow-nature of this event, and evaluate how regional reductions in crustal rigidity along the shallow trench as determined by reduced rupture velocity contributed to increased slip, causing the 5–9 m local tsunami runup and observed transoceanic wave heights observed 1600 km to the southeast.

  6. CARIBE WAVE/LANTEX Caribbean and Western Atlantic Tsunami Exercises

    von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.; Whitmore, P.; Aliaga, B.; Huerfano Moreno, V.

    2013-12-01

    Over 75 tsunamis have been documented in the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions over the past 500 years. While most have been generated by local earthquakes, distant generated tsunamis can also affect the region. For example, waves from the 1755 Lisbon earthquake and tsunami were observed in Cuba, Dominican Republic, British Virgin Islands, as well as Antigua, Martinique, Guadalupe and Barbados in the Lesser Antilles. Since 1500, at least 4484 people are reported to have perished in these killer waves. Although the tsunami generated by the 2010 Haiti earthquake claimed only a few lives, in the 1530 El Pilar, Venezuela; 1602 Port Royale, Jamaica; 1918 Puerto Rico; and 1946 Samaná, Dominican Republic tsunamis the death tolls ranged to over a thousand. Since then, there has been an explosive increase in residents, visitors, infrastructure, and economic activity along the coastlines, increasing the potential for human and economic loss. It has been estimated that on any day, upwards of more than 500,000 people could be in harm's way just along the beaches, with hundreds of thousands more working and living in the tsunamis hazard zones. Given the relative infrequency of tsunamis, exercises are a valuable tool to test communications, evaluate preparedness and raise awareness. Exercises in the Caribbean are conducted under the framework of the UNESCO IOC Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (CARIBE EWS) and the US National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. On March 23, 2011, 34 countries and territories participated in the first CARIBE WAVE/LANTEX regional tsunami exercise, while in the second exercise on March 20, 2013 a total of 45 countries and territories participated. 481 organizations (almost 200 more than in 2011) also registered to receive the bulletins issued by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC), West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center and/or the Puerto Rico

  7. Integration of WERA Ocean Radar into Tsunami Early Warning Systems

    Dzvonkovskaya, Anna; Helzel, Thomas; Kniephoff, Matthias; Petersen, Leif; Weber, Bernd

    2016-04-01

    High-frequency (HF) ocean radars give a unique capability to deliver simultaneous wide area measurements of ocean surface current fields and sea state parameters far beyond the horizon. The WERA® ocean radar system is a shore-based remote sensing system to monitor ocean surface in near real-time and at all-weather conditions up to 300 km offshore. Tsunami induced surface currents cause increasing orbital velocities comparing to normal oceanographic situation and affect the measured radar spectra. The theoretical approach about tsunami influence on radar spectra showed that a tsunami wave train generates a specific unusual pattern in the HF radar spectra. While the tsunami wave is approaching the beach, the surface current pattern changes slightly in deep water and significantly in the shelf area as it was shown in theoretical considerations and later proved during the 2011 Japan tsunami. These observed tsunami signatures showed that the velocity of tsunami currents depended on a tsunami wave height and bathymetry. The HF ocean radar doesn't measure the approaching wave height of a tsunami; however, it can resolve the surface current velocity signature, which is generated when tsunami reaches the shelf edge. This strong change of the surface current can be detected by a phased-array WERA system in real-time; thus the WERA ocean radar is a valuable tool to support Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). Based on real tsunami measurements, requirements for the integration of ocean radar systems into TEWS are already defined. The requirements include a high range resolution, a narrow beam directivity of phased-array antennas and an accelerated data update mode to provide a possibility of offshore tsunami detection in real-time. The developed software package allows reconstructing an ocean surface current map of the area observed by HF radar based on the radar power spectrum processing. This fact gives an opportunity to issue an automated tsunami identification message

  8. The 26 December 2004 tsunami source estimated from satellite radar altimetry and seismic waves

    Song, Tony Y.; Ji, Chen; Fu, L. -L.; Zlotnicki, Victor; Shum, C. K.; Yi, Yuchan; Hjorleifsdottir, Vala

    2005-01-01

    The 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was the first earthquake tsunami of its magnitude to occur since the advent of both digital seismometry and satellite radar altimetry. Both have independently recorded the event from different physical aspects. The seismic data has then been used to estimate the earthquake fault parameters, and a three-dimensional ocean-general-circulation-model (OGCM) coupled with the fault information has been used to simulate the satellite-observed tsunami waves. Here we show that these two datasets consistently provide the tsunami source using independent methodologies of seismic waveform inversion and ocean modeling. Cross-examining the two independent results confirms that the slip function is the most important condition controlling the tsunami strength, while the geometry and the rupture velocity of the tectonic plane determine the spatial patterns of the tsunami.

  9. The Puerto Rico Component of the National Tsunami Hazard and Mitigation Program (PR-NTHMP)

    Vanacore, E. A.; Huerfano Moreno, V. A.; Lopez, A. M.

    2015-12-01

    The Caribbean region has a documented history of damaging tsunamis that have affected coastal areas. Of particular interest is the Puerto Rico - Virgin Islands (PRVI) region, where the proximity of the coast to prominent tectonic faults would result in near-field tsunamis. Tsunami hazard assessment, detection capabilities, warning, education and outreach efforts are common tools intended to reduce loss of life and property. It is for these reasons that the PRSN is participating in an effort with local and federal agencies to develop tsunami hazard risk reduction strategies under the NTHMP. This grant supports the TsunamiReady program, which is the base of the tsunami preparedness and mitigation in PR. In order to recognize threatened communities in PR as TsunamiReady by the US NWS, the PR Component of the NTHMP have identified and modeled sources for local, regional and tele-tsunamis and the results of simulations have been used to develop tsunami response plans. The main goal of the PR-NTHMP is to strengthen resilient coastal communities that are prepared for tsunami hazards, and recognize PR as TsunamiReady. Evacuation maps were generated in three phases: First, hypothetical tsunami scenarios of potential underwater earthquakes were developed, and these scenarios were then modeled through during the second phase. The third phase consisted in determining the worst-case scenario based on the Maximum of Maximums (MOM). Inundation and evacuation zones were drawn on GIS referenced maps and aerial photographs. These products are being used by emergency managers to educate the public and develop mitigation strategies. Maps and related evacuation products, like evacuation times, can be accessed online via the PR Tsunami Decision Support Tool. Based on these evacuation maps, tsunami signs were installed, vulnerability profiles were created, communication systems to receive and disseminate tsunami messages were installed in each TWFP, and tsunami response plans were

  10. Influence of Earthquake Parameters on Tsunami Wave Height and Inundation

    Kulangara Madham Subrahmanian, D.; Sri Ganesh, J.; Venkata Ramana Murthy, M.; V, R. M.

    2014-12-01

    After Indian Ocean Tsunami (IOT) on 26th December, 2004, attempts are being made to assess the threat of tsunami originating from different sources for different parts of India. The Andaman - Sumatra trench is segmented by transcurrent faults and differences in the rate of subduction which is low in the north and increases southward. Therefore key board model with initial deformation calculated using different strike directions, slip rates, are used. This results in uncertainties in the earthquake parameters. This study is made to identify the location of origin of most destructive tsunami for Southeast coast of India and to infer the influence of the earthquake parameters in tsunami wave height travel time in deep ocean as well as in the shelf and inundation in the coast. Five tsunamigenic sources were considered in the Andaman - Sumatra trench taking into consideration the tectonic characters of the trench described by various authors and the modeling was carried out using TUNAMI N2 code. The model results were validated using the travel time and runup in the coastal areas and comparing the water elevation along Jason - 1's satellite track. The inundation results are compared from the field data. The assessment of the tsunami threat for the area south of Chennai city the metropolitan city of South India shows that a tsunami originating in Car Nicobar segment of the Andaman - Sumatra subduction zone can generate the most destructive tsunami. Sensitivity analysis in the modelling indicates that fault length influences the results significantly and the tsunami reaches early and with higher amplitude. Strike angle is also modifying the tsunami followed by amount of slip.

  11. Atmospheric gravity waves due to the Tohoku-Oki tsunami observed in the thermosphere by GOCE

    Garcia, R.F.; Doornbos, E.N.; Bruinsma, S.; Hebert, H.

    2014-01-01

    Oceanic tsunami waves couple with atmospheric gravity waves, as previously observedthrough ionospheric and airglow perturbations. Aerodynamic velocities and density variations are computed from Gravity Field and Steady-State Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) accelerometer and thruster data during Tohoku-Oki tsunami propagation. High-frequency perturbations of these parameters are observed during three expected crossings of the tsunami-generated gravity waves by the GOCE satellite. From theore...

  12. TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC: Brief Historical Review of its Establishment and Institutional Support

    George Pararas-Carayannis

    2015-01-01

    The year 2015 marks the 50th anniversary of operations of the International Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific Ocean. The present report describes briefly the establishment of the rudimentary early tsunami warning system in 1948 by the USA after the disastrous tsunami of April 1, 1946, generated by a great earthquake in the Aleutian Islands, struck without warning the Hawaiian Islands and other parts of the Pacific. Also reviewed are the progressive improvements made to the U.S. warning sy...

  13. The tsunami signature on a submerged promontory: the case study of the Atacames Promontory, Ecuador

    Ioualalen, Mansour; Ratzov, Gueorgui; Collot, Jean-Yves; Sanclemente, E.

    2011-01-01

    P>Shelf promontories exhibit very specific bathymetric features with regards to tsunamis. Because of their submerged cape morphology, a potential tsunami generated seawards of the promontory will exhibit a specific mode of propagation and coastal impact. To identify this peculiar tsunami signature, the Atacames Promontory, Ecuador, was chosen as a case study (another example is the shelf of the Nile delta, Egypt). The area is tectonically very active, hosts earthquakes among the most powerful...

  14. Adapting the serial Alpgen event generator to simulate LHC collisions on millions of parallel threads

    Childers, J T; LeCompte, T J; Papka, M E; Benjamin, D P

    2015-01-01

    As the LHC moves to higher energies and luminosity, the demand for computing resources increases accordingly and will soon outpace the growth of the Worldwide LHC Computing Grid. To meet this greater demand, event generation Monte Carlo was targeted for adaptation to run on Mira, the supercomputer at the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility. Alpgen is a Monte Carlo event generation application that is used by LHC experiments in the simulation of collisions that take place in the Large Hadron Collider. This paper details the process by which Alpgen was adapted from a single-processor serial-application to a large-scale parallel-application and the performance that was achieved.

  15. Analysis and modelling of tsunami-induced tilt for the 2007, M = 7.6, Tocopilla and the 2010, M = 8.8 Maule earthquakes, Chile, from long-base tiltmeter and broadband seismometer records

    Boudin, F.; Allgeyer, S.; Bernard, P.; Hébert, H.; Olcay, M.; Madariaga, R.; El-Madani, M.; Vilotte, J.-P.; Peyrat, S.; Nercessian, A.; Schurr, B.; Esnoult, M.-F.; Asch, G.; Nunez, I.; Kammenthaler, M.

    2013-07-01

    We present a detailed study of tsunami-induced tilt at in-land sites, to test the interest and feasibility of such analysis for tsunami detection and modelling. We studied tiltmeter and broadband seismometer records of northern Chile, detecting a clear signature of the tsunamis generated by the 2007 Tocopilla (M = 7.6) and the 2010 Maule (M = 8.8) earthquakes. We find that these records are dominated by the tilt due to the elastic loading of the oceanic floor, with a small effect of the horizontal gravitational attraction. We modelled the Maule tsunami using the seismic source model proposed by Delouis et al. and a bathymetric map, correctly fitting three tide gauge records of the area (Antofagasta, Iquique and Arica). At all the closest stations (7 STS2, 2 long-base tiltmeters), we correctly modelled the first few hours of the tilt signal for the Maule tsunami. The only phase mismatch is for the site that is closer to the ocean. We find a tilt response of 0.005-0.01 μm at 7 km away from the coastline in response to a sea level amplitude change of 10 cm. For the Maule earthquake, we observe a clear tilt signal starting 20 min before the arrival time of the tsunami at the nearest point on the coastline. This capability of tilt or seismic sensors to detect distant tsunamis before they arrive has been successfully tested with a scenario megathrust in the southern Peru-northern Chile seismic gap. However, for large events near the stations, this analysis may no longer be feasible, due to the large amplitude of the long-period seismic signals expected to obscure the loading signal. Inland tilt measurements of tsunamis smooth out short, often unmodelled wavelengths of the sea level perturbation, thus providing robust, large-scale images of the tsunami. Furthermore, tilt measurements are not expected to saturate even for the largest run-ups, nor to suffer from near-coast tsunami damages. Tiltmeters and broadband seismometers are thus valuable instruments for monitoring

  16. A New Algorithm for Real-Time Tsunami Forecast Using a Dense Network of Cabled Ocean-Bottom Pressure Gauges

    Yamamoto, N.; Aoi, S.; Hirata, K.; Kunugi, T.; Nakamura, H.; Suzuki, W.

    2014-12-01

    We started to develop a new algorithm for real-time tsunami forecast based on offshore tsunami observations with 150 cabled ocean-bottom pressure gauges of the Seafloor Observation Network for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (S-net), under construction along the Japan Trench (Kanazawa et al., 2012, JpGU; Uehira et al., 2012, AGU). The most important concept on the new algorithm is involving any type and/or form uncertainties in the tsunami forecast, which cannot be dealt with any of standard linear/nonlinear least square approaches. We first construct a tsunami scenario bank (TSB). It contains offshore tsunami waveforms at the 150 stations and maximum coastal tsunami heights, calculated using nonlinear long-wave theory with runup boundary condition from any possible tsunami sources (fault models) that affect target coastal regions. From TSB, then we quickly explore a range of several suitable tsunami scenarios, that can explain offshore observations. At the same time, maximum possible tsunami heights along the target coastlines, coupled with selected scenarios, are predicted. In the near future, it is possible to forecast real-time tsunami inundation by adding its component in TSB under the same strategy. In this study, we focus on near-field tsunami occurring off the Pacific coast of Tohoku and Hokkaido. Provisionally, we generate 1848 tsunami scenarios, prepared for a research project of nationwide Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Japan (Hirata et al., 2014, AOGS), to construct TSB. For a given pseudo "observed waveforms", the developing algorithm rapidly picks up an allowable range of tsunami scenarios from TSB. In this procedure, we use multiple indexes such as correlation coefficient, sum of squared residual, as well as geometric mean and geometric standard deviation in ratios of scenarios to observations. Use of multiple indexes rather than any single index as linear inversion does reinforce to obtain robust tsunami forecast.

  17. Scenarios of Local Tsunamis in the China Seas by Boussinesq Model

    赵曦; 刘桦; 王本龙

    2014-01-01

    The Okinawa Trench in the East China Sea and the Manila Trench in the South China Sea are considered to be the regions with high risk of potential tsunamis induced by submarine earthquakes. Tsunami waves will impact the southeast coast of China if tsunamis occur in these areas. In this paper, the horizontal two-dimensional Boussinesq model is used to simulate tsunami generation, propagation, and runup in a domain with complex geometrical boundaries. The temporary varying bottom boundary condition is adopted to describe the initial tsunami waves motivated by the submarine faults. The Indian Ocean tsunami is simulated by the numerical model as a validation case. The time series of water elevation and runup on the beach are compared with the measured data from field survey. The agreements indicate that the Boussinesq model can be used to simulate tsunamis and predict the waveform and runup. Then, the hypothetical tsunamis in the Okinawa Trench and the Manila Trench are simulated by the numerical model. The arrival time and maximum wave height near coastal cities are predicted by the model. It turns out that the leading depression N-wave occurs when the tsunami propagates in the continental shelf from the Okinawa Trench. The scenarios of the tsunami in the Manila Trench demonstrate significant effects on the coastal area around the South China Sea.

  18. Tsunami propagation modelling – a sensitivity study

    P. Tkalich

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Indian Ocean (2004 Tsunami and following tragic consequences demonstrated lack of relevant experience and preparedness among involved coastal nations. After the event, scientific and forecasting circles of affected countries have started a capacity building to tackle similar problems in the future. Different approaches have been used for tsunami propagation, such as Boussinesq and Nonlinear Shallow Water Equations (NSWE. These approximations were obtained assuming different relevant importance of nonlinear, dispersion and spatial gradient variation phenomena and terms. The paper describes further development of original TUNAMI-N2 model to take into account additional phenomena: astronomic tide, sea bottom friction, dispersion, Coriolis force, and spherical curvature. The code is modified to be suitable for operational forecasting, and the resulting version (TUNAMI-N2-NUS is verified using test cases, results of other models, and real case scenarios. Using the 2004 Tsunami event as one of the scenarios, the paper examines sensitivity of numerical solutions to variation of different phenomena and parameters, and the results are analyzed and ranked accordingly.

  19. Catalogue of Tsunamis in the Eastern Mediterranean from Antiquity to Present Times

    J. ANTONOPOULOS

    1979-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a systematic compilation of all data pertaining
    to tsunamis observed or recorded in the Eastern Mediterranean from
    antiquity to present times (1500 b.C. to 1980 a.D.. The first catalogue
    has been published by Prof. N.N. Ambraseys in the "Bulletin of the
    Seismological Society of America" (Vol. 52, No 4, October 1962 and this
    has formed the skeleton of this paper. All of the available information
    has been compiled from historical accounts, newspaper archives, other
    reports, and recent mareographic data. The earthquake data have been
    extracted from the Seismological Institute of Athens and relative bibliography.
    Most of the events listed are associated with earthquakes, but
    some are the result of volcanic activity . Many of the tsunamis have
    been generated along the coast of Greece, Albania, South Yugoslavia,
    Turkey, Syria and Israel. There is little doubt that the large conjugate
    fault system along, the west coast of Greece, Crete and Rodos till the
    south coast of Turkey is often responsible for the earthquakes in this
    area and most of tsunamis in the Eastern Mediterranean.

  20. Improving tsunami resiliency: California's Tsunami Policy Working Group

    Real, Charles R.; Johnson, Laurie; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie

    2014-01-01

    California has established a Tsunami Policy Working Group to facilitate development of policy recommendations for tsunami hazard mitigation. The Tsunami Policy Working Group brings together government and industry specialists from diverse fields including tsunami, seismic, and flood hazards, local and regional planning, structural engineering, natural hazard policy, and coastal engineering. The group is acting on findings from two parallel efforts: The USGS SAFRR Tsunami Scenario project, a comprehensive impact analysis of a large credible tsunami originating from an M 9.1 earthquake in the Aleutian Islands Subduction Zone striking California’s coastline, and the State’s Tsunami Preparedness and Hazard Mitigation Program. The unique dual-track approach provides a comprehensive assessment of vulnerability and risk within which the policy group can identify gaps and issues in current tsunami hazard mitigation and risk reduction, make recommendations that will help eliminate these impediments, and provide advice that will assist development and implementation of effective tsunami hazard risk communication products to improve community resiliency.

  1. TSUNAMI HAZARD AND TOTAL RISK IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN

    X. William Proenza

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Deadly western North Atlantic Ocean tsunami events in the last centuries have occurred along the east coast of Canada, the United States, most Caribbean islands, and the North Atlantic Coast of South America. The catastrophic Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 reminded natural hazards managers that tsunami risk is endemic to all oceans. Total Risk is defined as hazard (frequency of tsunami events times measures of elements at risk (human exposure times measures of vulnerability (preparedness in a given epoch (Nott, 2006. While the tsunami hazard in the Caribbean (averaging 19 ± 22 years between deadly events is lower than Pacific coastal areas, the total risk to life and property is at least as high as the USA West Coast, Hawaii, or Alaska, because of the higher Caribbean population density and beach tourism so attractive to more than 35 million visitors a year. Viewed in this light, the allocation of resources by governments, industry, and insurers needs to be adjusted for the better protection of life, for coastal engineering, and for infrastructure.

  2. Recurrence of great earthquakes and tsunamis, Aceh Province, Sumatra

    Rubin, C. M.; Horton, B.; Sieh, K.; Pilarczyk, J.; Hawkes, A. D.; Daly, P.; Kelsey, H. M.; McKinnon, E.; Ismail, N.; Daryono, M. R.

    2013-12-01

    The timing and characterization of ancient earthquakes and tsunamis inferred from a variety of geologic studies in Aceh Province, Sumatra, are helping to understand predecessors of the 2004 event in the Indian Ocean region. We report results from three different depositional environments along the western and northern coast of Aceh Province, Sumatra, that illuminate the history of tsunamis through the past several millennia. Within a coastal cave along the western coast is an extraordinary sedimentary deposit that contains a 7,000-year long sequence of tsunami sands separated by bat guano. In two sea cliff exposures along the northern coast of Aceh is evidence for two closely timed predecessors of the giant 2004 tsunami that destroyed communities along the coast about 500 years ago. In addition, coastal wetlands along the western coast document land-level changes and tsunamis associated with the earthquake cycle in the early- to mid-Holocene. Together these records show a marked variability in recurrence of large tsunamis along the Acehnese coast. Time between inundations averages close to 500 years but range from a few centuries to a millennium.

  3. Assessing hail risk for a building portfolio by generating stochastic events

    Nicolet, Pierrick; Choffet, Marc; Demierre, Jonathan; Imhof, Markus; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Nguyen, Liliane; Voumard, Jérémie

    2015-04-01

    Among the natural hazards affecting buildings, hail is one of the most costly and is nowadays a major concern for building insurance companies. In Switzerland, several costly events were reported these last years, among which the July 2011 event, which cost around 125 million EUR to the Aargauer public insurance company (North-western Switzerland). This study presents the new developments in a stochastic model which aims at evaluating the risk for a building portfolio. Thanks to insurance and meteorological radar data of the 2011 Aargauer event, vulnerability curves are proposed by comparing the damage rate to the radar intensity (i.e. the maximum hailstone size reached during the event, deduced from the radar signal). From these data, vulnerability is defined by a two-step process. The first step defines the probability for a building to be affected (i.e. to claim damages), while the second, if the building is affected, attributes a damage rate to the building from a probability distribution specific to the intensity class. To assess the risk, stochastic events are then generated by summing a set of Gaussian functions with 6 random parameters (X and Y location, maximum hailstone size, standard deviation, eccentricity and orientation). The location of these functions is constrained by a general event shape and by the position of the previously defined functions of the same event. For each generated event, the total cost is calculated in order to obtain a distribution of event costs. The general events parameters (shape, size, …) as well as the distribution of the Gaussian parameters are inferred from two radar intensity maps, namely the one of the aforementioned event, and a second from an event which occurred in 2009. After a large number of simulations, the hailstone size distribution obtained in different regions is compared to the distribution inferred from pre-existing hazard maps, built from a larger set of radar data. The simulation parameters are then

  4. Analysis of geodetic interseismic coupling models to estimate tsunami inundation and runup: a study case of Maule seismic gap, Chile

    González-Carrasco, J. F.; Gonzalez, G.; Aránguiz, R.; Catalan, P. A.; Cienfuegos, R.; Urrutia, A.; Shrivastava, M. N.; Yagi, Y.; Moreno, M.

    2015-12-01

    Tsunami inundation maps are a powerful tool to design evacuation plans of coastal communities, additionally can be used as a guide to territorial planning and assessment of structural damages in port facilities and critical infrastructure (Borrero et al., 2003; Barberopoulou et al., 2011; Power et al., 2012; Mueller et al., 2015). The accuracy of inundation estimation is highly correlated with tsunami initial conditions, e.g. seafloor vertical deformation, displaced water volume and potential energy (Bolshakova et al., 2011). Usually, the initial conditions are estimated using homogeneous rupture models based in historical worst-case scenario. However tsunamigenic events occurred in central Chilean continental margin showed a heterogeneous slip distribution of source with patches of high slip, correlated with fully-coupled interseismic zones (Moreno et al., 2012). The main objective of this work is to evaluate the predictive capacity of interseismic coupling models based on geodetic data comparing them with homogeneous fault slip model constructed using scaling laws (Blaser et al., 2010) to estimate inundation and runup in coastal areas. To test our hypothesis we select a seismic gap of Maule, where occurred the last large tsunamigenic earthquake in the chilean subduction zone, using the interseismic coupling models (ISC) proposed by Moreno et al., 2011 and Métois et al., 2013. We generate a slip deficit distribution to build a tsunami source supported by geological information such as slab depth (Hayes et al., 2012), strike, rake and dip (Dziewonski et al., 1981; Ekström et al., 2012) to model tsunami generation, propagation and shoreline impact using Neowave 2D (Yamazaki et al., 2009). We compare the tsunami scenario of Mw 8.8, Maule based in coseismic slip distribution proposed by Moreno et al., 2012 with homogeneous and heterogeneous models to identify the accuracy of our results with sea level time series and regional runup data (Figure 1). The estimation of

  5. SAFRR Tsunami Scenarios and USGS-NTHMP Collaboration

    Ross, S.; Wood, N. J.; Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.; Gately, K.; Jones, J. L.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Richards, K.; Wein, A. M.; Wilson, R. I.

    2015-12-01

    Hazard scenarios provide emergency managers and others with information to help them prepare for future disasters. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, published in 2013, modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. It presented the modeled inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. It provided the basis for many exercises involving, among others, NOAA, the State of Washington, several counties in California, and the National Institutes of Health. The scenario led to improvements in the warning protocol for southern California and highlighted issues that led to ongoing work on harbor and marina safety. Building on the lessons learned in the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, another tsunami scenario is being developed with impacts to Hawaii and to the source region in Alaska, focusing on the evacuation issues of remote communities with primarily shore parallel roads, and also on the effects of port closures. Community exposure studies in Hawaii (Ratliff et al., USGS-SIR, 2015) provided background for selecting these foci. One complicated and important aspect of any hazard scenario is defining the source event. The USGS is building collaborations with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to consider issues involved in developing a standardized set of tsunami sources to support hazard mitigation work. Other key USGS-NTHMP collaborations involve population vulnerability and evacuation modeling.

  6. Field Survey of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami in Fukushima

    Yeh, H. H.; Sato, S.; Tajima, Y.; Okayasu, A.; Fritz, H. M.

    2012-12-01

    On March 11, 2011, a magnitude Mw 9.0 earthquake struck the coast of Japan's Tohoku region causing loss of life and catastrophic damage. The infamous nuclear accident at Fukushima Dai-Ichi Nuclear Power Plant occurred immediately after the event. The earthquake and tsunami flooding of the nuclear power plant resulted in a series of equipment failures, nuclear meltdowns, and releases of radioactive materials. Because of the sudden impact of the accident, all the residents had to vacate the area within a 20 km radius from the NPP. Consequently, no tsunami survey had been permitted in the restricted area. Likewise debris removal and reconstruction had been widely postponed. In February 2012, almost eleven months later, a small group of tsunami scientists entered the exclusion zone with a special permit and surveyed tsunami effects along this 40 km stretch of coastline for the first time. The recent partial lift of the access restriction allowed more detailed follow-up surveys in June and August 2012. Here we report tsunami runup measurements along the Fukushima coasts where the data had been absent. The envelope of the tsunami runup heights along the coast was found to be approximately at the level of 13 m T.P. (Tokyo Peil), while a localized maximum runup of 21.1 m T.P. was measured on a coastal bluff 8.5 km south of the nuclear power plant. The runup pattern along the restricted Fukushima coast is consistent with the interpolation from the runup values previously measured outside of the restricted area. We also discuss the persistence of observed tsunami effects that remained in the environment given the human absence for almost one full year: included are the damage patterns of coastal structures, geomorphologic changes, and tsunami deposits.; A scene of Tomioka Fishing Port: 9 km south of the Fukushima Dai-Ichi NPP.

  7. NiMax: a new approach to develop hadronic event generators in HEP

    The NiMax framework is a new approach to develop, assemble and use hadronic event generators in HEP. There are several important concepts of the NiMax architecture: the components, the data file, the application domain module, the control system and the project. Here we describe these concepts stressing their functionality

  8. SIMULATION OF TSUNAMI FORCE ON ROWS OF BUILDINGS IN ACEH REGION AFTER TSUNAMI DISASTER IN 2004

    Radianta Triatmadja

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available After the Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004 in Aceh, houses and other buildings were reconstructed by government and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGO. The new buildings near the coastline are open directly to similar tsunami attack. The layout of such new residential are normally arranged and aligned as rows of buildings. The front rows of the buildings suffer more tsunami force due to their location that are closer to the beach and the effect of the reflection from the adjacent buildings. This research aims to analyze the tsunami force on buildings of different types, and the effect of other buildings nearby. The research was conducted using a physical model at the Hydraulic and Hydrology Laboratory, Research Centre for Engineering Science, Universitas Gadjah Mada Indonesia. The physical model simulations were carried out in a flume of 24 m long, 1.45 m wide, and 1.5 m high, that was facilitated with tsunami generator based on dam break system. The models of the buildings were made of plywood and were placed in a row perpendicular to the flume. The distance between the buildings was varied to observe the effect of the gaps. The results show that the force on the building depends on the gap between the buildings. Although the effect of the gap was more significant on low buildings, the effect of force on high buildings was more sensitive to the change of the gap size. Simple equation for practical use is proposed to calculate the tsunami force on building with the effect of nearby buildings.

  9. TSUNAMI INFORMATION SOURCES PART 3

    Robert L. Wiegel

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This is Part 3 of Tsunami Information Sources published by Robert L. Wiegel, as Technical Report UCB/HEL 2006-3 of the Hydraulic Engineering Laboratory of the Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering of the University of California at Berkeley. Part 3 is published in "SCIENCE OF TSUNAMI HAZARDS" -with the author's permission -so that it can receive wider distribution and use by the Tsunami Scientific Community.

  10. Real-time forecasting of the April 11, 2012 Sumatra tsunami

    Wang, Dailin; Becker, Nathan C.; Walsh, David; Fryer, Gerard J.; Weinstein, Stuart A.; McCreery, Charles S.; Sardiña, Victor; Hsu, Vindell; Hirshorn, Barry F.; Hayes, Gavin P.; Duputel, Zacharie; Rivera, Luis; Kanamori, Hiroo; Koyanagi, Kanoa K.; Shiro, Brian

    2012-01-01

    The April 11, 2012, magnitude 8.6 earthquake off the northern coast of Sumatra generated a tsunami that was recorded at sea-level stations as far as 4800 km from the epicenter and at four ocean bottom pressure sensors (DARTs) in the Indian Ocean. The governments of India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Maldives issued tsunami warnings for their coastlines. The United States' Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) issued an Indian Ocean-wide Tsunami Watch Bulletin in its role as an Interim...

  11. Modelling of Charles Darwin's tsunami reports

    Galiev, Shamil

    2010-05-01

    -nonlinear equation for . The last equation contains the forcing term which is generated by nonlinearity and depends on . The nonlinear shock-like solution for is constructed which is valid within the narrow coastal zone. Then the tsunami evolution near a coast is studied. It is found that the coastal evolution strongly depends on the profile of the bottom and the distance from the coastline. Far from this the wave surface is smooth and the wave is long enough. The wave profile begins to change quickly, if the coastal water is shallow. The steep (discontinuous) front of the tsunami can be generated. The water level reduces ahead of the front, or the ebb can appear there. Then this front begins to move away from the coast - into the ocean. This direction is opposite to the motion of the whole wave. The amplitude of the front is increased. The water wall is formed. This process explains the catastrophic effect of a tsunami, when a water-wall appears instantly. The wave, having two steep peaks, may be generated in the case of very shallow water. In contrast with this, the tsunami, practically, does not change, if the coastal water is deep. On the whole, the conclusions agree with the Darwin's reports.

  12. Cooldown strategies for a steam generator tube rupture event with failure of main steam safety valve

    This paper provides an evaluation of the thermal-hydraulic response of a pressurized water reactor (PWR) during a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) event with the failure of a main steam safety valve (MSSV). Operator actions to successfully mitigate the consequences of this SGTR event are proposed. The desired actions are those which provide for control of the affected steam generator water level and minimize radiological doses to the environment. Specifically, the purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the results of differences in operator actions to cooldown the power plant in terms of: (1) dose releases to the environment, (2) control of the affected steam generator level, (3) and optimal reactor coolant system cooldown and depressurization

  13. Reconstruction of far-field tsunami amplitude distributions from earthquake sources

    Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Thomas E.

    2016-01-01

    The probability distribution of far-field tsunami amplitudes is explained in relation to the distribution of seismic moment at subduction zones. Tsunami amplitude distributions at tide gauge stations follow a similar functional form, well described by a tapered Pareto distribution that is parameterized by a power-law exponent and a corner amplitude. Distribution parameters are first established for eight tide gauge stations in the Pacific, using maximum likelihood estimation. A procedure is then developed to reconstruct the tsunami amplitude distribution that consists of four steps: (1) define the distribution of seismic moment at subduction zones; (2) establish a source-station scaling relation from regression analysis; (3) transform the seismic moment distribution to a tsunami amplitude distribution for each subduction zone; and (4) mix the transformed distribution for all subduction zones to an aggregate tsunami amplitude distribution specific to the tide gauge station. The tsunami amplitude distribution is adequately reconstructed for four tide gauge stations using globally constant seismic moment distribution parameters established in previous studies. In comparisons to empirical tsunami amplitude distributions from maximum likelihood estimation, the reconstructed distributions consistently exhibit higher corner amplitude values, implying that in most cases, the empirical catalogs are too short to include the largest amplitudes. Because the reconstructed distribution is based on a catalog of earthquakes that is much larger than the tsunami catalog, it is less susceptible to the effects of record-breaking events and more indicative of the actual distribution of tsunami amplitudes.

  14. Revision of the IOC/ITST Post-Tsunami Field Guide (Invited)

    Dengler, L. A.; IOC/ITST Core Working Group on the Post-Tsunami Field Guide

    2010-12-01

    A small international working group of tsunami researchers met at the AGU Meeting of the Americas in August 2010 to update and revise the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Coimmission (IOC) Manual & Guides no. 37 “Post-Tsunami Field Guide”. The original guide was published by the IOC in 1998. The developments in the tsunami field and the expansion of tsunami science into disciplines not originally covered in the 1998 document led the IOC Tsunami Unit to convene a working group to update and accommodate new areas not covered in the original document. Recent tsunami disasters indicated the necessity of assessing comprehensive social factors such as resilience and vulnerability and measuring the impacts on the environment and ecosystem. The revised guide attempts to balance the needs of the scientific community to measure perishable data in the immediate aftermath of a tsunami event and the individual/community/governmental issues involved with response and recovery. The guide will also incorporate lessons learned from the IOC/ITST coordination of the response to the recent tsunamis in Samoa and Chile. A draft of the revised skeleton of the guide will be presented at the meeting and members of the tsunami research community will be invited to comment.

  15. Emergency management response to a warning-level Alaska-source tsunami impacting California: Chapter J in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Miller, Kevin M.; Long, Kate

    2013-01-01

    This chapter is directed towards two audiences: Firstly, it targets nonemergency management readers, providing them with insight on the process and challenges facing emergency managers in responding to tsunami Warning, particularly given this “short fuse” scenario. It is called “short fuse” because there is only a 5.5-hour window following the earthquake before arrival of the tsunami within which to evaluate the threat, disseminate alert and warning messages, and respond. This action initiates a period when crisis communication is of paramount importance. An additional dynamic that is important to note is that within 15 minutes of the earthquake, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) will issue alert bulletins for the entire Pacific Coast. This is one-half the time actually presented by recent tsunamis from Japan, Chile, and Samoa. Second, the chapter provides emergency managers at all levels with insights into key considerations they may need to address in order to augment their existing plans and effectively respond to tsunami events. We look at emergency management response to the tsunami threat from three perspectives:“Top Down” (Threat analysis and Alert/Warning information from the Federal agency charged with Alert and Warning) “Bottom Up” (Emergency management’s Incident Command approach to responding to emergencies and disasters based on the needs of impacted local jurisdictions) “Across Time” (From the initiating earthquake event through emergency response) We focus on these questions: What are the government roles, relationships, and products that support Tsunami Alert and Warning dissemination? (Emergency Planning and Preparedness.) What roles, relationships, and products support emergency management response to Tsunami Warning and impact? (Engendering prudent public safety response.) What are the key emergency management activities, considerations, and challenges brought

  16. The Geological Trace Of The 1932 Tsunamis In The Tropical Jalisco-Colima Coast, Mexico

    Ramirez-Herrera, M.; Blecher, L.; Goff, J. R.; Corona, N.; Chague-Goff, C.; Lagos, M.; Hutchinson, I.; Aguilar, B.; Goguitchaichrili, A.; Machain-Castillo, M. L.; Rangel, V.; Zawadzki, A.; Jacobsen, G.

    2013-05-01

    The study and preservation of tsunami deposits have being challenging in humid tropical environments. While tsunami deposits have been widely studied at temperate latitudes, few studies assess this problem in tropical environments due to the difficulties intrinsic to these places (e.g. tsunami deposit preservation, post-burial changes in a tropical environment, mangrove vegetation, difficult access, wildlife, among others). Here we assess the problem of tsunami-deposits preservation on the Jalisco-Colima tropical coast of Mexico, which parallels the more than 1000-km long Mexican subduction, where historical accounts indicate the occurrence of two significant tsunamis on June 3 and 22, 1932 (Corona and Ramírez-Herrera, 2012a, Valdivia et al., 2012). However, up to date, no geological evidence of these events has been reported. We present geological evidence of two large tsunamis related to the June 3, M 8.2 earthquake, and the June 22, Ms 6.9 landslide-triggering event of 1932 (Corona and Ramírez-Herrera, 2012a, b). A multiproxy approach was applied to unravel the nature of anomalous sand units and sharp basal contacts in the stratigraphy of a number of sites at Palo Verde estuary, El Tecuán swales and marsh, and La Manzanilla swales, on the Jalisco-Colima coast. Lines of evidence including historical, geomorphological, stratigraphic, grain size, organic matter content, microfossils (diatoms and foraminifera), geochemical content, magnetic susceptibility and AMS analyses, together with dating (210Pb and 14C), and modeling, corroborate the presence of tsunami deposits of both the 3 June 1932 tsunami at El Tecuán and La Manzanilla, and the 22 June 1932 tsunami at Palo Verde. Further evidence of earlier tsunamis, at least four events, is also evident in the stratigraphy. Work in progress should reveal the chronology of the earliest tsunamis and their origin. Corona, N., M.T. Ramirez-Herrera. (2012a) Mapping and historical reconstruction of the great Mexican 1932

  17. Dinoflagellates, a new proxy for evidencing (paleo)tsunamis

    Popescu, S.; Do Couto, D.; Suc, J.; Gorini, C.

    2012-12-01

    As a preliminary investigation, dinoflagellates have been searched in the Sri Lanka tsunami deposits (2004, Sumatra earthquake). The goals of this analysis were (1) to establish if dinoflagellate cysts (marine algae) are preserved in such types of deposits, and (2) to delimit the inland flooded surface. This work was performed on only 1-2 grams of sands, which had been sterilized at 121°C to prevent any microbial activity. The analysis points out the presence of several marine dinoflagellate cysts with a poor to moderate preservation, allowing to estimate the extent of the flooded area. In addition, a sample provided two dinoflagellate thecae, an exceptional occurrence because the cellulosic form of a dinoflagellate (i.e. the theca) is generally considered as unable to be preserved within sediments. In laboratory experiments, thecae are known to persist between 2 and 72 hours, depending of the species. If we accept a possible preservation of thecae in "peculiar" conditions, their presence in a tsunami sedimentary sequence may sign a precise instant of a tsunami event. Dinoflagellates have been searched in sedimentary basins affected by intense seismic activity: the Black Sea (Quaternary) and Alboran Sea (Messinian - Zanclean), two areas marked by important environmental changes. Marine dinoflagellate cysts are recorded in the Black Sea before its Holocene connection with Mediterranean through the Bosphorus Strait. Their occurrence constitutes a robust support for tsunamis already described in the region. In Late Messinian and Early Pliocene deposits from the Sorbas and Malaga basins (Alboran Sea region), cysts and thecae of marine dinoflagellates have been evidenced for the first time, maybe in relation with possible tsunamis. This new approach is to be developed on other recent tsunami deposits in order to contribute to identify past tsunami events. One must mention that dinoflagellates may help in reconstruction of past sea-surface physical parameters (salinity

  18. Event generation for next to leading order chargino production at the international linear collider

    At the International Linear Collider (ILC), parameters of supersymmetry (SUSY) can be determined with an experimental accuracy matching the precision of next-to-leading order (NLO) and higher-order theoretical predictions. Therefore, these contributions need to be included in the analysis of the parameters. We present a Monte-Carlo event generator for simulating chargino pair production at the ILC at next-to-leading order in the electroweak couplings. We consider two approaches of including photon radiation. A strict fixed-order approach allows for comparison and consistency checks with published semianalytic results in the literature. A version with soft- and hard-collinear resummation of photon radiation, which combines photon resummation with the inclusion of the NLO matrix element for the production process, avoids negative event weights, so the program can simulate physical (unweighted) event samples. Photons are explicitly generated throughout the range where they can be experimentally resolved. In addition, it includes further higher-order corrections unaccounted for by the fixed-order method. Inspecting the dependence on the cutoffs separating the soft and collinear regions, we evaluate the systematic errors due to soft and collinear approximations for NLO and higher-order contributions. In the resummation approach, the residual uncertainty can be brought down to the per-mil level, coinciding with the expected statistical uncertainty at the ILC. We closely investigate the two-photon phase space for the resummation method. We present results for cross sections and event generation for both approaches. (orig.)

  19. Event generation for next to leading order chargino production at the international linear collider

    Robens, T.

    2006-10-15

    At the International Linear Collider (ILC), parameters of supersymmetry (SUSY) can be determined with an experimental accuracy matching the precision of next-to-leading order (NLO) and higher-order theoretical predictions. Therefore, these contributions need to be included in the analysis of the parameters. We present a Monte-Carlo event generator for simulating chargino pair production at the ILC at next-to-leading order in the electroweak couplings. We consider two approaches of including photon radiation. A strict fixed-order approach allows for comparison and consistency checks with published semianalytic results in the literature. A version with soft- and hard-collinear resummation of photon radiation, which combines photon resummation with the inclusion of the NLO matrix element for the production process, avoids negative event weights, so the program can simulate physical (unweighted) event samples. Photons are explicitly generated throughout the range where they can be experimentally resolved. In addition, it includes further higher-order corrections unaccounted for by the fixed-order method. Inspecting the dependence on the cutoffs separating the soft and collinear regions, we evaluate the systematic errors due to soft and collinear approximations for NLO and higher-order contributions. In the resummation approach, the residual uncertainty can be brought down to the per-mil level, coinciding with the expected statistical uncertainty at the ILC. We closely investigate the two-photon phase space for the resummation method. We present results for cross sections and event generation for both approaches. (orig.)

  20. Observing Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances Caused by Tsunamis Using GPS TEC Measurements

    Galvan, David A.; Komjathy, Attila; Hickey, Michael; Foster, James; Mannucci, Anthony J.

    2010-01-01

    Ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) show variations consistent with atmospheric internal gravity waves caused by ocean tsunamis following two recent seismic events: the American Samoa earthquake of September 29, 2009, and the Chile earthquake of February 27, 2010. Fluctuations in TEC correlated in time, space, and wave properties with these tsunamis were observed in TEC estimates processed using JPL's Global Ionospheric Mapping Software. These TEC estimates were band-pass filtered to remove ionospheric TEC variations with wavelengths and periods outside the typical range of internal gravity waves caused by tsunamis. Observable variations in TEC appear correlated with the tsunamis in certain locations, but not in others. Where variations are observed, the typical amplitude tends to be on the order of 1% of the background TEC value. Variations with amplitudes 0.1 - 0.2 TECU are observable with periods and timing affiliated with the tsunami. These observations are compared to estimates of expected tsunami-driven TEC variations produced by Embry Riddle Aeronautical University's Spectral Full Wave Model, an atmosphere-ionosphere coupling model, and found to be in good agreement in some locations, though there are cases when the model predicts an observable tsunami-driven signature and none is observed. These TEC variations are not always seen when a tsunami is present, but in these two events the regions where a strong ocean tsunami was observed did coincide with clear TEC observations, while a lack of clear TEC observations coincided with smaller tsunami amplitudes. There exists the potential to apply these detection techniques to real-time GPS TEC data, providing estimates of tsunami speed and amplitude that may be useful for early warning systems.

  1. Detecting Events and Patterns in Large-Scale User Generated Textual Streams with Statistical Learning Methods

    Lampos, Vasileios

    2012-01-01

    A vast amount of textual web streams is influenced by events or phenomena emerging in the real world. The social web forms an excellent modern paradigm, where unstructured user generated content is published on a regular basis and in most occasions is freely distributed. The present Ph.D. Thesis deals with the problem of inferring information - or patterns in general - about events emerging in real life based on the contents of this textual stream. We show that it is possible to extract valua...

  2. Numerical modelling of the 28 October 2011 Haida Gwaii tsunami

    Fine, I.; Cherniawsky, J. Y.; Thomson, R.

    2013-12-01

    On October 28, 2012, a strong (Mw=7.7) earthquake occurred offshore of Moresby Island, Haida Gwaii (formerly the Queen Charlotte Islands). The earthquake generated a trans-Pacific tsunami observed from New Zealand to Alaska. We used an updated finite-fault model of the earthquake of Hayes (2013) to estimate the tsunami source. The location of this source was subsequently adjusted using tsunami waveforms recorded by bott