International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Full text.This paper describes a software tool for generation expansion planning based on dynamic programming, probabilistic production simulation, and environmental assessment. The aim is to determine the units needed to expand a given system in order to minimize either the cost or the environmental impact or some weighed function of the two. The problem of generation expansion planning is solved in stages using Tunnel Dynamic Programming (TDP) with Heuristic rules to limit the number of options analyzed. The production costing methodology is based on combining a probabilistic generation model known as the capacity outage table (COT) with the load duration curve (LDC) of the system to deduce a risk model from which the expected energy not supplied (EENS) is estimated. The generation model is built recursively using an efficient numerical convolution procedure and is combined at each step with the LDC to calculate the expected energy produced by each unit, its corresponding production ...