Comparison of distance sampling estimates to a known population ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Line-transect sampling was used to obtain abundance estimates of an Ant-eating Chat Myrmecocichla formicivora population to compare these with the true size of the population. The population size was determined by a long-term banding study, and abundance estimates were obtained by surveying line transects.

Are owl pellets good estimators of prey abundance?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Analia Andrade

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Some ecologists have been skeptics about the use of owl pellets to estimate small mammal’s fauna. This is due to the assumptions required by this method: (a that owls hunt at random, and (b that pellets represent a random sample from the environment. We performed statistical analysis to test these assumptions and to assess the effectiveness of Barn owl pellets as a useful estimator of field abundances of its preys. We used samples collected in the arid Extra-Andean Patagonia along an altitudinal environmental gradient from lower Monte ecoregion to upper Patagonian steppe ecoregion, with a mid-elevation ecotone. To test if owls hunt at random, we estimated expected pellet frequency by creating a distribution of random pellets, which we compared with data using a simulated chi-square. To test if pellets represent a random sample from the environment, differences between ecoregions were evaluated by PERMANOVAs with Bray–Curtis dissimilarities. We did not find evidence that owls foraged non-randomly. Therefore, we can assume that the proportions of the small mammal’s species in the diet are representative of the proportions of the species in their communities. Only Monte is different from other ecoregions. The ecotone samples are grouped with those of Patagonian steppes. There are no real differences between localities in the small mammal’s abundances in each of these ecoregions and/or Barn owl pellets cannot detect patterns at a smaller spatial scale. Therefore, we have no evidence to invalidate the use of owl pellets at an ecoregional scale.

2015-2016 Palila abundance estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Banko, Paul C.

2016-01-01

The palila (Loxioides bailleui) population was surveyed annually during 1998−2016 on Mauna Kea Volcano to determine abundance, population trend, and spatial distribution. In the latest surveys, the 2015 population was estimated at 852−1,406 birds (point estimate: 1,116) and the 2016 population was estimated at 1,494−2,385 (point estimate: 1,934). Similar numbers of palila were detected during the first and subsequent counts within each year during 2012−2016; the proportion of the total annual detections in each count ranged from 46% to 56%; and there was no difference in the detection probability due to count sequence. Furthermore, conducting repeat counts improved the abundance estimates by reducing the width of the confidence intervals between 9% and 32% annually. This suggests that multiple counts do not affect bird or observer behavior and can be continued in the future to improve the precision of abundance estimates. Five palila were detected on supplemental survey stations in the Ka‘ohe restoration area, outside the core survey area but still within Palila Critical Habitat (one in 2015 and four in 2016), suggesting that palila are present in habitat that is recovering from cattle grazing on the southwest slope. The average rate of decline during 1998−2016 was 150 birds per year. Over the 18-year monitoring period, the estimated rate of change equated to a 58% decline in the population.

Estimating breeding season abundance of golden-cheeked warblers in Texas, USA

KAUST Repository

Mathewson, Heather A.

2012-02-15

Population abundance estimates using predictive models are important for describing habitat use and responses to population-level impacts, evaluating conservation status of a species, and for establishing monitoring programs. The golden-cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia) is a neotropical migratory bird that was listed as federally endangered in 1990 because of threats related to loss and fragmentation of its woodland habitat. Since listing, abundance estimates for the species have mainly relied on localized population studies on public lands and qualitative-based methods. Our goal was to estimate breeding population size of male warblers using a predictive model based on metrics for patches of woodland habitat throughout the species\\' breeding range. We first conducted occupancy surveys to determine range-wide distribution. We then conducted standard point-count surveys on a subset of the initial sampling locations to estimate density of males. Mean observed patch-specific density was 0.23 males/ha (95% CI = 0.197-0.252, n = 301). We modeled the relationship between patch-specific density of males and woodland patch characteristics (size and landscape composition) and predicted patch occupancy. The probability of patch occupancy, derived from a model that used patch size and landscape composition as predictor variables while addressing effects of spatial relatedness, best predicted patch-specific density. We predicted patch-specific densities as a function of occupancy probability and estimated abundance of male warblers across 63,616 woodland patches accounting for 1.678 million ha of potential warbler habitat. Using a Monte Carlo simulation, our approach yielded a range-wide male warbler population estimate of 263,339 (95% CI: 223,927-302,620). Our results provide the first abundance estimate using habitat and count data from a sampling design focused on range-wide inference. Managers can use the resulting model as a tool to support conservation planning

A guide to the use of distance sampling to estimate abundance of Karner blue butterflies

Science.gov (United States)

Grundel, Ralph

2015-01-01

This guide is intended to describe the use of distance sampling as a method for evaluating the abundance of Karner blue butterflies at a location. Other methods for evaluating abundance exist, including mark-release-recapture and index counts derived from Pollard-Yates surveys, for example. Although this guide is not intended to be a detailed comparison of the pros and cons of each type of method, there are important preliminary considerations to think about before selecting any method for evaluating the abundance of Karner blue butterflies.

Estimating abundance of adult striped bass in reservoirs using mobile hydroacoustics

Science.gov (United States)

Hightower, Joseph E.; Taylor, J. Christopher; Degan, Donald J.

2013-01-01

Hydroacoustic surveys have proven valuable for estimating reservoir forage fish abundance but are more challenging for adult predators such as striped bass Morone saxatilis. Difficulties in assessing striped bass in reservoirs include their low density and the inability to distinguish species with hydroacoustic data alone. Despite these difficulties, mobile hydroacoustic surveys have potential to provide useful data for management because of the large sample volume compared to traditional methods such as gill netting and the ability to target specific areas where striped bass are aggregated. Hydroacoustic estimates of reservoir striped bass have been made using mobile surveys, with data analysis using a threshold for target strength in order to focus on striped bass-sized targets, and auxiliary sampling with nets to obtain species composition. We provide recommendations regarding survey design, based in part on simulations that provide insight on the level of effort that would be required to achieve reasonable estimates of abundance. Future surveys may be able to incorporate telemetry or other sonar techniques such as side-scan or multibeam in order to focus survey efforts on productive habitats (within lake and vertically). However, species apportionment will likely remain the main source of error, and we see no hydroacoustic system on the horizon that will identify fish by species at the spatial and temporal scale required for most reservoir surveys. In situations where species composition can be reliably assessed using traditional gears, abundance estimates from hydroacoustic methods should be useful to fishery managers interested in developing harvest regulations, assessing survival of stocked juveniles, identifying seasonal aggregations, and examining predator–prey balance.

Spectral unmixing: estimating partial abundances

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Debba, Pravesh

2009-01-01

Full Text Available techniques is complicated when considering very similar spectral signatures. Iron-bearing oxide/hydroxide/sulfate minerals have similar spectral signatures. The study focuses on how could estimates of abundances of spectrally similar iron-bearing oxide...

Hankin and Reeves' approach to estimating fish abundance in small streams: limitations and alternatives

Science.gov (United States)

William L. Thompson

2003-01-01

Hankin and Reeves' (1988) approach to estimating fish abundance in small streams has been applied in stream fish studies across North America. However, their population estimator relies on two key assumptions: (1) removal estimates are equal to the true numbers of fish, and (2) removal estimates are highly correlated with snorkel counts within a subset of sampled...

Determination of mineral abundances in samples from the exploratory studies facility using x-ray diffraction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roberts, S.; Viani, R.

1998-01-01

Tuff samples collected from the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) were X-rayed to estimate relative mineral abundances. X-ray analysis was performed on sub-samples of specimens collected from both the Single Heater Test (SHT) and Drift Scale Heater Test (DST) that were used for thermomechanical measurements, as well as samples collected from cores retrieved from boreholes in the Drift Scale Test Area. The abundance of minerals that could affect the behavior of the host rock at repository relevant temperatures is of particular interest. These minerals include crystobalite, which undergoes a phase transition and volume change at elevated temperature (-250 'C), and smectite and clinoptilolite that can dehydrate at elevated temperature with accompanying volume reduction. In addition, the spatial distribution of SiO, polymorphs and secondary minerals may provide evidence for deducing past fluid pathways. The mineral abundances tabulated here include data reported previously in three milestone reports (Roberts and Viani, 1997a,b; Viani and Roberts, 1996) but re-analyzed (see below), as well as previously unreported data. Previous X-ray diffraction analyses of samples from the ESF (Roberts and Viani, 1997a; Viani and Roberts, 1996) utilized the matrix flushing method of Chung (1974) and an internal intensity standard (corundum) to quantify the abundances of the phases present. Although the method is adequate for obtaining relative abundances, its accuracy and precision is limited by the inherent differences between the external standards used to compute the reference intensity ratio and the mineral phases in the sample. In a subsequent report (Roberts and Viani, 1997b) mineral abundances were obtained using the Rietveld method of whole X-ray pattern fitting (Snyder and Bish, 1989; Young, 1993). The Rietveld technique has the potential to be both more accurate and more precise for estimating mineral abundances (Snyder and Bish, 1989)

Estimating Lion Abundance using N-mixture Models for Social Species.

Science.gov (United States)

Belant, Jerrold L; Bled, Florent; Wilton, Clay M; Fyumagwa, Robert; Mwampeta, Stanslaus B; Beyer, Dean E

2016-10-27

Declining populations of large carnivores worldwide, and the complexities of managing human-carnivore conflicts, require accurate population estimates of large carnivores to promote their long-term persistence through well-informed management We used N-mixture models to estimate lion (Panthera leo) abundance from call-in and track surveys in southeastern Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. Because of potential habituation to broadcasted calls and social behavior, we developed a hierarchical observation process within the N-mixture model conditioning lion detectability on their group response to call-ins and individual detection probabilities. We estimated 270 lions (95% credible interval = 170-551) using call-ins but were unable to estimate lion abundance from track data. We found a weak negative relationship between predicted track density and predicted lion abundance from the call-in surveys. Luminosity was negatively correlated with individual detection probability during call-in surveys. Lion abundance and track density were influenced by landcover, but direction of the corresponding effects were undetermined. N-mixture models allowed us to incorporate multiple parameters (e.g., landcover, luminosity, observer effect) influencing lion abundance and probability of detection directly into abundance estimates. We suggest that N-mixture models employing a hierarchical observation process can be used to estimate abundance of other social, herding, and grouping species.

[Study of spatial stratified sampling strategy of Oncomelania hupensis snail survey based on plant abundance].

Science.gov (United States)

Xun-Ping, W; An, Z

2017-07-27

Objective To optimize and simplify the survey method of Oncomelania hupensis snails in marshland endemic regions of schistosomiasis, so as to improve the precision, efficiency and economy of the snail survey. Methods A snail sampling strategy (Spatial Sampling Scenario of Oncomelania based on Plant Abundance, SOPA) which took the plant abundance as auxiliary variable was explored and an experimental study in a 50 m×50 m plot in a marshland in the Poyang Lake region was performed. Firstly, the push broom surveyed data was stratified into 5 layers by the plant abundance data; then, the required numbers of optimal sampling points of each layer through Hammond McCullagh equation were calculated; thirdly, every sample point in the line with the Multiple Directional Interpolation (MDI) placement scheme was pinpointed; and finally, the comparison study among the outcomes of the spatial random sampling strategy, the traditional systematic sampling method, the spatial stratified sampling method, Sandwich spatial sampling and inference and SOPA was performed. Results The method (SOPA) proposed in this study had the minimal absolute error of 0.213 8; and the traditional systematic sampling method had the largest estimate, and the absolute error was 0.924 4. Conclusion The snail sampling strategy (SOPA) proposed in this study obtains the higher estimation accuracy than the other four methods.

Estimating species occurrence, abundance, and detection probability using zero-inflated distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Wenger, Seth J; Freeman, Mary C

2008-10-01

Researchers have developed methods to account for imperfect detection of species with either occupancy (presence absence) or count data using replicated sampling. We show how these approaches can be combined to simultaneously estimate occurrence, abundance, and detection probability by specifying a zero-inflated distribution for abundance. This approach may be particularly appropriate when patterns of occurrence and abundance arise from distinct processes operating at differing spatial or temporal scales. We apply the model to two data sets: (1) previously published data for a species of duck, Anas platyrhynchos, and (2) data for a stream fish species, Etheostoma scotti. We show that in these cases, an incomplete-detection zero-inflated modeling approach yields a superior fit to the data than other models. We propose that zero-inflated abundance models accounting for incomplete detection be considered when replicate count data are available.

New aerial survey and hierarchical model to estimate manatee abundance

Science.gov (United States)

Langimm, Cahterine A.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Stith, Bradley M.; Doyle, Terry J.

2011-01-01

Monitoring the response of endangered and protected species to hydrological restoration is a major component of the adaptive management framework of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. The endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) lives at the marine-freshwater interface in southwest Florida and is likely to be affected by hydrologic restoration. To provide managers with prerestoration information on distribution and abundance for postrestoration comparison, we developed and implemented a new aerial survey design and hierarchical statistical model to estimate and map abundance of manatees as a function of patch-specific habitat characteristics, indicative of manatee requirements for offshore forage (seagrass), inland fresh drinking water, and warm-water winter refuge. We estimated the number of groups of manatees from dual-observer counts and estimated the number of individuals within groups by removal sampling. Our model is unique in that we jointly analyzed group and individual counts using assumptions that allow probabilities of group detection to depend on group size. Ours is the first analysis of manatee aerial surveys to model spatial and temporal abundance of manatees in association with habitat type while accounting for imperfect detection. We conducted the study in the Ten Thousand Islands area of southwestern Florida, USA, which was expected to be affected by the Picayune Strand Restoration Project to restore hydrology altered for a failed real-estate development. We conducted 11 surveys in 2006, spanning the cold, dry season and warm, wet season. To examine short-term and seasonal changes in distribution we flew paired surveys 1–2 days apart within a given month during the year. Manatees were sparsely distributed across the landscape in small groups. Probability of detection of a group increased with group size; the magnitude of the relationship between group size and detection probability varied among surveys. Probability

Estimating the abundance of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation with aerial surveys

Science.gov (United States)

Obbard, Martyn E.; Stapleton, Seth P.; Middel, Kevin R.; Thibault, Isabelle; Brodeur, Vincent; Jutras, Charles

2015-01-01

The Southern Hudson Bay (SH) polar bear subpopulation occurs at the southern extent of the species’ range. Although capture–recapture studies indicate abundance was likely unchanged between 1986 and 2005, declines in body condition and survival occurred during the period, possibly foreshadowing a future decrease in abundance. To obtain a current estimate of abundance, we conducted a comprehensive line transect aerial survey of SH during 2011–2012. We stratified the study site by anticipated densities and flew coastal contour transects and systematically spaced inland transects in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and large offshore islands in 2011. Data were collected with double-observer and distance sampling protocols. We surveyed small islands in James Bay and eastern Hudson Bay and flew a comprehensive transect along the Québec coastline in 2012. We observed 667 bears in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and nearby islands in 2011, and we sighted 80 bears on offshore islands during 2012. Mark–recapture distance sampling and sight–resight models yielded an estimate of 860 (SE = 174) for the 2011 study area. Our estimate of abundance for the entire SH subpopulation (943; SE = 174) suggests that abundance is unlikely to have changed significantly since 1986. However, this result should be interpreted cautiously because of the methodological differences between historical studies (physical capture–recapture) and this survey. A conservative management approach is warranted given previous increases in duration of the ice-free season, which are predicted to continue in the future, and previously documented declines in body condition and vital rates.

Abundance estimation of spectrally similar minerals

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Debba, Pravesh

2009-07-01

Full Text Available This paper evaluates a spectral unmixing method for estimating the partial abundance of spectrally similar minerals in complex mixtures. The method requires formulation of a linear function of individual spectra of individual minerals. The first...

Variation in rank abundance replicate samples and impact of clustering

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Neuteboom, J.H.; Struik, P.C.

2005-01-01

Calculating a single-sample rank abundance curve by using the negative-binomial distribution provides a way to investigate the variability within rank abundance replicate samples and yields a measure of the degree of heterogeneity of the sampled community. The calculation of the single-sample rank

Combining counts and incidence data: an efficient approach for estimating the log-normal species abundance distribution and diversity indices.

Science.gov (United States)

Bellier, Edwige; Grøtan, Vidar; Engen, Steinar; Schartau, Ann Kristin; Diserud, Ola H; Finstad, Anders G

2012-10-01

Obtaining accurate estimates of diversity indices is difficult because the number of species encountered in a sample increases with sampling intensity. We introduce a novel method that requires that the presence of species in a sample to be assessed while the counts of the number of individuals per species are only required for just a small part of the sample. To account for species included as incidence data in the species abundance distribution, we modify the likelihood function of the classical Poisson log-normal distribution. Using simulated community assemblages, we contrast diversity estimates based on a community sample, a subsample randomly extracted from the community sample, and a mixture sample where incidence data are added to a subsample. We show that the mixture sampling approach provides more accurate estimates than the subsample and at little extra cost. Diversity indices estimated from a freshwater zooplankton community sampled using the mixture approach show the same pattern of results as the simulation study. Our method efficiently increases the accuracy of diversity estimates and comprehension of the left tail of the species abundance distribution. We show how to choose the scale of sample size needed for a compromise between information gained, accuracy of the estimates and cost expended when assessing biological diversity. The sample size estimates are obtained from key community characteristics, such as the expected number of species in the community, the expected number of individuals in a sample and the evenness of the community.

Estimating abundance and density of Amur tigers along the Sino-Russian border.

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Wenhong; Feng, Limin; Mou, Pu; Miquelle, Dale G; Hebblewhite, Mark; Goldberg, Joshua F; Robinson, Hugh S; Zhao, Xiaodan; Zhou, Bo; Wang, Tianming; Ge, Jianping

2016-07-01

As an apex predator the Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) could play a pivotal role in maintaining the integrity of forest ecosystems in Northeast Asia. Due to habitat loss and harvest over the past century, tigers rapidly declined in China and are now restricted to the Russian Far East and bordering habitat in nearby China. To facilitate restoration of the tiger in its historical range, reliable estimates of population size are essential to assess effectiveness of conservation interventions. Here we used camera trap data collected in Hunchun National Nature Reserve from April to June 2013 and 2014 to estimate tiger density and abundance using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) methods. A minimum of 8 individuals were detected in both sample periods and the documentation of marking behavior and reproduction suggests the presence of a resident population. Using Bayesian SECR modeling within the 11 400 km(2) state space, density estimates were 0.33 and 0.40 individuals/100 km(2) in 2013 and 2014, respectively, corresponding to an estimated abundance of 38 and 45 animals for this transboundary Sino-Russian population. In a maximum likelihood framework, we estimated densities of 0.30 and 0.24 individuals/100 km(2) corresponding to abundances of 34 and 27, in 2013 and 2014, respectively. These density estimates are comparable to other published estimates for resident Amur tiger populations in the Russian Far East. This study reveals promising signs of tiger recovery in Northeast China, and demonstrates the importance of connectivity between the Russian and Chinese populations for recovering tigers in Northeast China. © 2016 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Estimating abundance of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation using aerial surveys, 2011 and 2012

Science.gov (United States)

Obbard, Martyn E.; Middel, Kevin R.; Stapleton, Seth P.; Thibault, Isabelle; Brodeur, Vincent; Jutras, Charles

2013-01-01

The Southern Hudson Bay (SH) polar bear subpopulation occurs at the southern extent of the species’ range. Although capture-recapture studies indicate that abundance remained stable between 1986 and 2005, declines in body condition and survival were documented during the period, possibly foreshadowing a future decrease in abundance. To obtain a current estimate of abundance, we conducted a comprehensive line transect aerial survey of SH during 2011–2012. We stratified the study site by anticipated densities and flew coastal contour transects and systematically spaced inland transects in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and large offshore islands in 2011. Data were collected with double observer and distance sampling protocols. We also surveyed small islands in Hudson Bay and James Bay and flew a comprehensive transect along the Québec coastline in 2012. We observed 667 bears in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and nearby islands in 2011, and we sighted 80 bears on offshore islands during 2012. Mark-recapture distance sampling and sightresight models yielded a model-averaged estimate of 868 (SE: 177) for the 2011 study area. Our estimate of abundance for the entire SH subpopulation (951; SE: 177) suggests that abundance has remained unchanged. However, this result should be interpreted cautiously because of the methodological differences between historical studies (physical capture) and this survey. A conservative management approach is warranted given the previous increases in the duration of the ice-free season, which are predicted to continue in the future, and previously documented declines in body condition and vital rates.

Sampling little fish in big rivers: Larval fish detection probabilities in two Lake Erie tributaries and implications for sampling effort and abundance indices

Science.gov (United States)

Pritt, Jeremy J.; DuFour, Mark R.; Mayer, Christine M.; Roseman, Edward F.; DeBruyne, Robin L.

2014-01-01

Larval fish are frequently sampled in coastal tributaries to determine factors affecting recruitment, evaluate spawning success, and estimate production from spawning habitats. Imperfect detection of larvae is common, because larval fish are small and unevenly distributed in space and time, and coastal tributaries are often large and heterogeneous. We estimated detection probabilities of larval fish from several taxa in the Maumee and Detroit rivers, the two largest tributaries of Lake Erie. We then demonstrated how accounting for imperfect detection influenced (1) the probability of observing taxa as present relative to sampling effort and (2) abundance indices for larval fish of two Detroit River species. We found that detection probabilities ranged from 0.09 to 0.91 but were always less than 1.0, indicating that imperfect detection is common among taxa and between systems. In general, taxa with high fecundities, small larval length at hatching, and no nesting behaviors had the highest detection probabilities. Also, detection probabilities were higher in the Maumee River than in the Detroit River. Accounting for imperfect detection produced up to fourfold increases in abundance indices for Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis and Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum. The effect of accounting for imperfect detection in abundance indices was greatest during periods of low abundance for both species. Detection information can be used to determine the appropriate level of sampling effort for larval fishes and may improve management and conservation decisions based on larval fish data.

Estimating disperser abundance using open population models that incorporate data from continuous detection PIT arrays

Science.gov (United States)

Dzul, Maria C.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Korman, Josh

2017-01-01

Autonomous passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag antenna systems continuously detect individually marked organisms at one or more fixed points over long time periods. Estimating abundance using data from autonomous antennae can be challenging, because these systems do not detect unmarked individuals. Here we pair PIT antennae data from a tributary with mark-recapture sampling data in a mainstem river to estimate the number of fish moving from the mainstem to the tributary. We then use our model to estimate abundance of non-native rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss that move from the Colorado River to the Little Colorado River (LCR), the latter of which is important spawning and rearing habitat for federally-endangered humpback chub Gila cypha. We estimate 226 rainbow trout (95% CI: 127-370) entered the LCR from October 2013-April 2014. We discuss the challenges of incorporating detections from autonomous PIT antenna systems into mark-recapture population models, particularly in regards to using information about spatial location to estimate movement and detection probabilities.

ON ESTIMATING INTERSTELLAR POLYCYCLIC AROMATIC HYDROCARBON ABUNDANCES WITH CALCULATED OSCILLATOR STRENGTHS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tan Xiaofeng; Bernstein, Lawrence; Cami, Jan; Salama, Farid

2011-01-01

Vibronic bands of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the UV/visible range are often used to estimate the abundances of PAHs in the interstellar medium by comparing laboratory-measured spectra with astronomical observations. We investigate the errors introduced by associating theoretical electronic oscillator strengths with individual vibronic bands when estimating the abundances of interstellar PAHs. The vibronic oscillator strengths of the 0-0 bands of nine PAHs with two to seven benzene rings, spanning in the 2800-6700 A spectral range, have been calculated using the Franck-Condon approximation and compared to their electronic oscillator strengths. It is found that the use of calculated electronic oscillator strengths rather than the more physically relevant vibronic oscillator strengths underestimates interstellar abundances of the nine PAHs under study, on average by a factor of about 2.4. It is recommended that vibronic oscillator strengths should be systematically used to analyze the vibronic spectra of specific PAHs and to estimate their abundances in the interstellar medium. An empirical correcting factor is suggested for the cases where the vibronic oscillator strengths are unknown for more realistic estimation of interstellar PAH abundances.

Using spatiotemporal models and distance sampling to map the space use and abundance of newly metamorphosed Western Toads (Anaxyrus boreas)

Science.gov (United States)

Chelgren, Nathan D.; Samora, Barbara; Adams, Michael J.; McCreary, Brome

2011-01-01

High variability in abundance, cryptic coloration, and small body size of newly metamorphosed anurans have limited demographic studies of this life-history stage. We used line-transect distance sampling and Bayesian methods to estimate the abundance and spatial distribution of newly metamorphosed Western Toads (Anaxyrus boreas) in terrestrial habitat surrounding a montane lake in central Washington, USA. We completed 154 line-transect surveys from the commencement of metamorphosis (15 September 2009) to the date of first snow accumulation in fall (1 October 2009), and located 543 newly metamorphosed toads. After accounting for variable detection probability associated with the extent of barren habitats, estimates of total surface abundance ranged from a posterior median of 3,880 (95% credible intervals from 2,235 to 12,600) in the first week of sampling to 12,150 (5,543 to 51,670) during the second week of sampling. Numbers of newly metamorphosed toads dropped quickly with increasing distance from the lakeshore in a pattern that differed over the three weeks of the study and contradicted our original hypotheses. Though we hypothesized that the spatial distribution of toads would initially be concentrated near the lake shore and then spread outward from the lake over time, we observed the opposite. Ninety-five percent of individuals occurred within 20, 16, and 15 m of shore during weeks one, two, and three respectively, probably reflecting continued emergence of newly metamorphosed toads from the lake and mortality or burrow use of dispersed individuals. Numbers of toads were highest near the inlet stream of the lake. Distance sampling may provide a useful method for estimating the surface abundance of newly metamorphosed toads and relating their space use to landscape variables despite uncertain and variable probability of detection. We discuss means of improving the precision of estimates of total abundance.

Estimation of lunar FeO abundance based on imaging by LRO Diviner

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang, Xiao; Zhang, Xue-Wei; Chen, Yuan; Zhang, Xiao-Meng; Cai, Wei; Wu, Yun-Zhao; Luo, Xiao-Xing; Jiang, Yun; Xu, Ao-Ao; Wang, Zhen-Chao

2016-01-01

Understanding the abundance and distribution characteristics of FeO on the surface of the Moon is important for investigating its evolution. The current high resolution maps of the global FeO abundance are mostly produced with visible and near infrared reflectance spectra. The Christiansen Feature (CF) in mid-infrared has strong sensitivity to lunar minerals and correlates to major elements composing minerals. This paper investigates the possibility of mapping global FeO abundance using the CF values from the Diviner Lunar Radiometer Experiment aboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) mission. A high correlation between the CF values and FeO abundances from the Apollo samples was found. Based on this high correlation, a new global map (±60°) of FeO was produced using the CF map. The results show that the global FeO average is 8.2 wt.%, the highland average is 4.7 wt.%, the global modal abundance is 5.4 wt.% and the lunar mare mode is 15.7 wt.%. These results are close to those derived from data provided by Clementine, the Lunar Prospector Gamma Ray Spectrometer (LP-GRS) and the Chang'e-1 Interference Imaging Spectrometer (IIM), demonstrating the feasibility of estimating FeO abundance based on the Diviner CF data. The near global FeO abundance map shows an enrichment of lunar major elements. (paper)

Accounting for imperfect detection of groups and individuals when estimating abundance.

Science.gov (United States)

Clement, Matthew J; Converse, Sarah J; Royle, J Andrew

2017-09-01

If animals are independently detected during surveys, many methods exist for estimating animal abundance despite detection probabilities account for imperfect detection of groups, while assuming that individuals within groups are detected perfectly. However, this assumption is often unsupported. We introduce an abundance estimator for grouped animals when detection of groups is imperfect and group size may be under-counted, but not over-counted. The estimator combines an MRDS model with an N-mixture model to account for imperfect detection of individuals. The new MRDS-Nmix model requires the same data as an MRDS model (independent detection histories, an estimate of distance to transect, and an estimate of group size), plus a second estimate of group size provided by the second observer. We extend the model to situations in which detection of individuals within groups declines with distance. We simulated 12 data sets and used Bayesian methods to compare the performance of the new MRDS-Nmix model to an MRDS model. Abundance estimates generated by the MRDS-Nmix model exhibited minimal bias and nominal coverage levels. In contrast, MRDS abundance estimates were biased low and exhibited poor coverage. Many species of conservation interest reside in groups and could benefit from an estimator that better accounts for imperfect detection. Furthermore, the ability to relax the assumption of perfect detection of individuals within detected groups may allow surveyors to re-allocate resources toward detection of new groups instead of extensive surveys of known groups. We believe the proposed estimator is feasible because the only additional field data required are a second estimate of group size.

Spatially explicit population estimates for black bears based on cluster sampling

Science.gov (United States)

Humm, J.; McCown, J. Walter; Scheick, B.K.; Clark, Joseph D.

2017-01-01

We estimated abundance and density of the 5 major black bear (Ursus americanus) subpopulations (i.e., Eglin, Apalachicola, Osceola, Ocala-St. Johns, Big Cypress) in Florida, USA with spatially explicit capture-mark-recapture (SCR) by extracting DNA from hair samples collected at barbed-wire hair sampling sites. We employed a clustered sampling configuration with sampling sites arranged in 3 × 3 clusters spaced 2 km apart within each cluster and cluster centers spaced 16 km apart (center to center). We surveyed all 5 subpopulations encompassing 38,960 km2 during 2014 and 2015. Several landscape variables, most associated with forest cover, helped refine density estimates for the 5 subpopulations we sampled. Detection probabilities were affected by site-specific behavioral responses coupled with individual capture heterogeneity associated with sex. Model-averaged bear population estimates ranged from 120 (95% CI = 59–276) bears or a mean 0.025 bears/km2 (95% CI = 0.011–0.44) for the Eglin subpopulation to 1,198 bears (95% CI = 949–1,537) or 0.127 bears/km2 (95% CI = 0.101–0.163) for the Ocala-St. Johns subpopulation. The total population estimate for our 5 study areas was 3,916 bears (95% CI = 2,914–5,451). The clustered sampling method coupled with information on land cover was efficient and allowed us to estimate abundance across extensive areas that would not have been possible otherwise. Clustered sampling combined with spatially explicit capture-recapture methods has the potential to provide rigorous population estimates for a wide array of species that are extensive and heterogeneous in their distribution.

Estimating juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) abundance from beach seine data collected in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta and San Francisco Bay, California

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, Russell W.; Kirsch, Joseph E.; Hendrix, A. Noble

2016-06-17

Resource managers rely on abundance or density metrics derived from beach seine surveys to make vital decisions that affect fish population dynamics and assemblage structure. However, abundance and density metrics may be biased by imperfect capture and lack of geographic closure during sampling. Currently, there is considerable uncertainty about the capture efficiency of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) by beach seines. Heterogeneity in capture can occur through unrealistic assumptions of closure and from variation in the probability of capture caused by environmental conditions. We evaluated the assumptions of closure and the influence of environmental conditions on capture efficiency and abundance estimates of Chinook salmon from beach seining within the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta and the San Francisco Bay. Beach seine capture efficiency was measured using a stratified random sampling design combined with open and closed replicate depletion sampling. A total of 56 samples were collected during the spring of 2014. To assess variability in capture probability and the absolute abundance of juvenile Chinook salmon, beach seine capture efficiency data were fitted to the paired depletion design using modified N-mixture models. These models allowed us to explicitly test the closure assumption and estimate environmental effects on the probability of capture. We determined that our updated method allowing for lack of closure between depletion samples drastically outperformed traditional data analysis that assumes closure among replicate samples. The best-fit model (lowest-valued Akaike Information Criterion model) included the probability of fish being available for capture (relaxed closure assumption), capture probability modeled as a function of water velocity and percent coverage of fine sediment, and abundance modeled as a function of sample area, temperature, and water velocity. Given that beach seining is a ubiquitous sampling technique for

Hankin and Reeves' Approach to Estimating Fish Abundance in Small Streams : Limitations and Potential Options.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thompson, William L. [Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR (US). Environment, Fish and Wildlife

2000-11-01

Hankin and Reeves' (1988) approach to estimating fish abundance in small streams has been applied in stream-fish studies across North America. However, as with any method of population estimation, there are important assumptions that must be met for estimates to be minimally biased and reasonably precise. Consequently, I investigated effects of various levels of departure from these assumptions via simulation based on results from an example application in Hankin and Reeves (1988) and a spatially clustered population. Coverage of 95% confidence intervals averaged about 5% less than nominal when removal estimates equaled true numbers within sampling units, but averaged 62% - 86% less than nominal when they did not, with the exception where detection probabilities of individuals were >0.85 and constant across sampling units (95% confidence interval coverage = 90%). True total abundances averaged far (20% - 41%) below the lower confidence limit when not included within intervals, which implies large negative bias. Further, average coefficient of variation was about 1.5 times higher when removal estimates did not equal true numbers within sampling units (C{bar V} = 0.27 [SE = 0.0004]) than when they did (C{bar V} = 0.19 [SE = 0.0002]). A potential modification to Hankin and Reeves' approach is to include environmental covariates that affect detection rates of fish into the removal model or other mark-recapture model. A potential alternative is to use snorkeling in combination with line transect sampling to estimate fish densities. Regardless of the method of population estimation, a pilot study should be conducted to validate the enumeration method, which requires a known (or nearly so) population of fish to serve as a benchmark to evaluate bias and precision of population estimates.

Hankin and Reeves' approach to estimating fish abundance in small streams: limitations and potential options; TOPICAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, William L.

2000-01-01

Hankin and Reeves' (1988) approach to estimating fish abundance in small streams has been applied in stream-fish studies across North America. However, as with any method of population estimation, there are important assumptions that must be met for estimates to be minimally biased and reasonably precise. Consequently, I investigated effects of various levels of departure from these assumptions via simulation based on results from an example application in Hankin and Reeves (1988) and a spatially clustered population. Coverage of 95% confidence intervals averaged about 5% less than nominal when removal estimates equaled true numbers within sampling units, but averaged 62% - 86% less than nominal when they did not, with the exception where detection probabilities of individuals were and gt;0.85 and constant across sampling units (95% confidence interval coverage= 90%). True total abundances averaged far (20% - 41%) below the lower confidence limit when not included within intervals, which implies large negative bias. Further, average coefficient of variation was about 1.5 times higher when removal estimates did not equal true numbers within sampling units (C(bar V)0.27[SE= 0.0004]) than when they did (C(bar V)= 0.19[SE= 0.0002]). A potential modification to Hankin and Reeves' approach is to include environmental covariates that affect detection rates of fish into the removal model or other mark-recapture model. A potential alternative is to use snorkeling in combination with line transect sampling to estimate fish densities. Regardless of the method of population estimation, a pilot study should be conducted to validate the enumeration method, which requires a known (or nearly so) population of fish to serve as a benchmark to evaluate bias and precision of population estimates

Preliminary estimates of the abundance and fidelity of dolphins associating with a demersal trawl fishery.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Simon J; Pollock, Kenneth H; Bouchet, Phil J; Kobryn, Halina T; McElligott, Deirdre B; Nicholson, Krista E; Smith, Joshua N; Loneragan, Neil R

2017-07-10

The incidental capture of wildlife in fishing gear presents a global conservation challenge. As a baseline to inform assessments of the impact of bycatch on bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) interacting with an Australian trawl fishery, we conducted an aerial survey to estimate dolphin abundance across the fishery. Concurrently, we carried out boat-based dolphin photo-identification to assess short-term fidelity to foraging around trawlers, and used photographic and genetic data to infer longer-term fidelity to the fishery. We estimated abundance at ≈ 2,300 dolphins (95% CI = 1,247-4,214) over the ≈ 25,880-km 2 fishery. Mark-recapture estimates yielded 226 (SE = 38.5) dolphins associating with one trawler and some individuals photographed up to seven times over 12 capture periods. Moreover, photographic and genetic re-sampling over three years confirmed that some individuals show long-term fidelity to trawler-associated foraging. Our study presents the first abundance estimate for any Australian pelagic dolphin community and documents individuals associating with trawlers over days, months and years. Without trend data or correction factors for dolphin availability, the impact of bycatch on this dolphin population's conservation status remains unknown. These results should be taken into account by management agencies assessing the impact of fisheries-related mortality on this protected species.

Evaluation of single and two-stage adaptive sampling designs for estimation of density and abundance of freshwater mussels in a large river

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, D.R.; Rogala, J.T.; Gray, B.R.; Zigler, S.J.; Newton, T.J.

2011-01-01

Reliable estimates of abundance are needed to assess consequences of proposed habitat restoration and enhancement projects on freshwater mussels in the Upper Mississippi River (UMR). Although there is general guidance on sampling techniques for population assessment of freshwater mussels, the actual performance of sampling designs can depend critically on the population density and spatial distribution at the project site. To evaluate various sampling designs, we simulated sampling of populations, which varied in density and degree of spatial clustering. Because of logistics and costs of large river sampling and spatial clustering of freshwater mussels, we focused on adaptive and non-adaptive versions of single and two-stage sampling. The candidate designs performed similarly in terms of precision (CV) and probability of species detection for fixed sample size. Both CV and species detection were determined largely by density, spatial distribution and sample size. However, designs did differ in the rate that occupied quadrats were encountered. Occupied units had a higher probability of selection using adaptive designs than conventional designs. We used two measures of cost: sample size (i.e. number of quadrats) and distance travelled between the quadrats. Adaptive and two-stage designs tended to reduce distance between sampling units, and thus performed better when distance travelled was considered. Based on the comparisons, we provide general recommendations on the sampling designs for the freshwater mussels in the UMR, and presumably other large rivers.

Revised estimates of abundance of South African sardine and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Hydro-acoustic surveys have been used to provide annual estimates of May recruitment and November spawner biomass of the South African sardine Sardinops sagax and anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus resources since 1984. These time-series of abundance estimates form the backbone of the assessment of these ...

Estimating abundance of an open population with an N-mixture model using auxiliary data on animal movements.

Science.gov (United States)

Ketz, Alison C; Johnson, Therese L; Monello, Ryan J; Mack, John A; George, Janet L; Kraft, Benjamin R; Wild, Margaret A; Hooten, Mevin B; Hobbs, N Thompson

2018-04-01

Accurate assessment of abundance forms a central challenge in population ecology and wildlife management. Many statistical techniques have been developed to estimate population sizes because populations change over time and space and to correct for the bias resulting from animals that are present in a study area but not observed. The mobility of individuals makes it difficult to design sampling procedures that account for movement into and out of areas with fixed jurisdictional boundaries. Aerial surveys are the gold standard used to obtain data of large mobile species in geographic regions with harsh terrain, but these surveys can be prohibitively expensive and dangerous. Estimating abundance with ground-based census methods have practical advantages, but it can be difficult to simultaneously account for temporary emigration and observer error to avoid biased results. Contemporary research in population ecology increasingly relies on telemetry observations of the states and locations of individuals to gain insight on vital rates, animal movements, and population abundance. Analytical models that use observations of movements to improve estimates of abundance have not been developed. Here we build upon existing multi-state mark-recapture methods using a hierarchical N-mixture model with multiple sources of data, including telemetry data on locations of individuals, to improve estimates of population sizes. We used a state-space approach to model animal movements to approximate the number of marked animals present within the study area at any observation period, thereby accounting for a frequently changing number of marked individuals. We illustrate the approach using data on a population of elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) in Northern Colorado, USA. We demonstrate substantial improvement compared to existing abundance estimation methods and corroborate our results from the ground based surveys with estimates from aerial surveys during the same seasons. We develop a

Asteroseismic estimate of helium abundance of 16 Cyg A, B

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Verma Kuldeep

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The helium ionization zone in a star leaves a characteristic signature on its oscillation frequencies, which can be used to estimate the helium content in the envelope of the star. We use the oscillation frequencies of 16 Cyg A and B, obtained using 2.5 years of Kepler data, to estimate the envelope helium abundance of these stars. We find the envelope helium abundance to lie in the range 0.231–0.251 for 16 Cyg A and 0.218–0.266 for 16 Cyg B.

A method for estimating abundance of mobile populations using telemetry and counts of unmarked animals

Science.gov (United States)

Clement, Matthew; O'Keefe, Joy M; Walters, Brianne

2015-01-01

While numerous methods exist for estimating abundance when detection is imperfect, these methods may not be appropriate due to logistical difficulties or unrealistic assumptions. In particular, if highly mobile taxa are frequently absent from survey locations, methods that estimate a probability of detection conditional on presence will generate biased abundance estimates. Here, we propose a new estimator for estimating abundance of mobile populations using telemetry and counts of unmarked animals. The estimator assumes that the target population conforms to a fission-fusion grouping pattern, in which the population is divided into groups that frequently change in size and composition. If assumptions are met, it is not necessary to locate all groups in the population to estimate abundance. We derive an estimator, perform a simulation study, conduct a power analysis, and apply the method to field data. The simulation study confirmed that our estimator is asymptotically unbiased with low bias, narrow confidence intervals, and good coverage, given a modest survey effort. The power analysis provided initial guidance on survey effort. When applied to small data sets obtained by radio-tracking Indiana bats, abundance estimates were reasonable, although imprecise. The proposed method has the potential to improve abundance estimates for mobile species that have a fission-fusion social structure, such as Indiana bats, because it does not condition detection on presence at survey locations and because it avoids certain restrictive assumptions.

Use of Atlantic Forest protected areas by free-ranging dogs: estimating abundance and persistence of use

Science.gov (United States)

Paschoal, Ana Maria; Massara, Rodrigo; Bailey, Larissa L.; Kendall, William L.; Doherty, Paul F.; Hirsch, Andre; Chiarello, Adriano; Paglia, Adriano

2016-01-01

Worldwide, domestic dogs (Canis familiaris) are one of the most common carnivoran species in natural areas and their populations are still increasing. Dogs have been shown to impact wildlife populations negatively, and their occurrence can alter the abundance, behavior, and activity patterns of native species. However, little is known about abundance and density of the free-ranging dogs that use protected areas. Here, we used camera trap data with an open-robust design mark–recapture model to estimate the number of dogs that used protected areas in Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We estimated the time period these dogs used the protected areas, and explored factors that influenced the probability of continued use (e.g., season, mammal richness, proportion of forest), while accounting for variation in detection probability. Dogs in the studied system were categorized as rural free-ranging, and their abundance varied widely across protected areas (0–73 individuals). Dogs used protected areas near human houses for longer periods (e.g., >50% of sampling occasions) compared to more distant areas. We found no evidence that their probability of continued use varied with season or mammal richness. Dog detection probability decreased linearly among occasions, possibly due to the owners confining their dogs after becoming aware of our presence. Comparing our estimates to those for native carnivoran, we found that dogs were three to 85 times more abundant than ocelots (Leopardus pardalis), two to 25 times more abundant than puma (Puma concolor), and approximately five times more abundant than the crab-eating fox (Cerdocyon thous). Combining camera trapping data with modern mark–recapture methods provides important demographic information on free-ranging dogs that can guide management strategies to directly control dogs' abundance and ranging behavior.

Estimating Cape hare occupancy and abundance in southern ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This study outlines the importance of integrating spotlighting data and occupancy modelling to estimate the spatial occupancy, abundance and habitat preferences of Cape hares Lepus capensis in southern Tunisia. Exploring the spatial distribution pattern of this species is problematic because of its nocturnal and secretive ...

Fishery characteristics and abundance estimates of the mangrove ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The mud crab Scylla serrata is lightly exploited along the East African seaboard. This study reports on fishing practices and gives preliminary estimates of abundance and size structures of the mud crab populations in Utende, Chole Island and Juani Island, Tanzania, and west of Quirimba and Ibo Island, Moçambique.

Re-constructing historical Adélie penguin abundance estimates by retrospectively accounting for detection bias.

Science.gov (United States)

Southwell, Colin; Emmerson, Louise; Newbery, Kym; McKinlay, John; Kerry, Knowles; Woehler, Eric; Ensor, Paul

2015-01-01

Seabirds and other land-breeding marine predators are considered to be useful and practical indicators of the state of marine ecosystems because of their dependence on marine prey and the accessibility of their populations at breeding colonies. Historical counts of breeding populations of these higher-order marine predators are one of few data sources available for inferring past change in marine ecosystems. However, historical abundance estimates derived from these population counts may be subject to unrecognised bias and uncertainty because of variable attendance of birds at breeding colonies and variable timing of past population surveys. We retrospectively accounted for detection bias in historical abundance estimates of the colonial, land-breeding Adélie penguin through an analysis of 222 historical abundance estimates from 81 breeding sites in east Antarctica. The published abundance estimates were de-constructed to retrieve the raw count data and then re-constructed by applying contemporary adjustment factors obtained from remotely operating time-lapse cameras. The re-construction process incorporated spatial and temporal variation in phenology and attendance by using data from cameras deployed at multiple sites over multiple years and propagating this uncertainty through to the final revised abundance estimates. Our re-constructed abundance estimates were consistently higher and more uncertain than published estimates. The re-constructed estimates alter the conclusions reached for some sites in east Antarctica in recent assessments of long-term Adélie penguin population change. Our approach is applicable to abundance data for a wide range of colonial, land-breeding marine species including other penguin species, flying seabirds and marine mammals.

Re-constructing historical Adélie penguin abundance estimates by retrospectively accounting for detection bias.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Colin Southwell

Full Text Available Seabirds and other land-breeding marine predators are considered to be useful and practical indicators of the state of marine ecosystems because of their dependence on marine prey and the accessibility of their populations at breeding colonies. Historical counts of breeding populations of these higher-order marine predators are one of few data sources available for inferring past change in marine ecosystems. However, historical abundance estimates derived from these population counts may be subject to unrecognised bias and uncertainty because of variable attendance of birds at breeding colonies and variable timing of past population surveys. We retrospectively accounted for detection bias in historical abundance estimates of the colonial, land-breeding Adélie penguin through an analysis of 222 historical abundance estimates from 81 breeding sites in east Antarctica. The published abundance estimates were de-constructed to retrieve the raw count data and then re-constructed by applying contemporary adjustment factors obtained from remotely operating time-lapse cameras. The re-construction process incorporated spatial and temporal variation in phenology and attendance by using data from cameras deployed at multiple sites over multiple years and propagating this uncertainty through to the final revised abundance estimates. Our re-constructed abundance estimates were consistently higher and more uncertain than published estimates. The re-constructed estimates alter the conclusions reached for some sites in east Antarctica in recent assessments of long-term Adélie penguin population change. Our approach is applicable to abundance data for a wide range of colonial, land-breeding marine species including other penguin species, flying seabirds and marine mammals.

Use of the robust design to estimate seasonal abundance and demographic parameters of a coastal bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops aduncus population.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Holly C Smith

Full Text Available As delphinid populations become increasingly exposed to human activities we rely on our capacity to produce accurate abundance estimates upon which to base management decisions. This study applied mark-recapture methods following the Robust Design to estimate abundance, demographic parameters, and temporary emigration rates of an Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops aduncus population off Bunbury, Western Australia. Boat-based photo-identification surveys were conducted year-round over three consecutive years along pre-determined transect lines to create a consistent sampling effort throughout the study period and area. The best fitting capture-recapture model showed a population with a seasonal Markovian temporary emigration with time varying survival and capture probabilities. Abundance estimates were seasonally dependent with consistently lower numbers obtained during winter and higher during summer and autumn across the three-year study period. Specifically, abundance estimates for all adults and juveniles (combined varied from a low of 63 (95% CI 59 to 73 in winter of 2007 to a high of 139 (95% CI 134 to148 in autumn of 2009. Temporary emigration rates (γ' for animals absent in the previous period ranged from 0.34 to 0.97 (mean  =  0.54; ±SE 0.11 with a peak during spring. Temporary emigration rates for animals present during the previous period (γ'' were lower, ranging from 0.00 to 0.29, with a mean of 0.16 (± SE 0.04. This model yielded a mean apparent survival estimate for juveniles and adults (combined of 0.95 (± SE 0.02 and a capture probability from 0.07 to 0.51 with a mean of 0.30 (± SE 0.04. This study demonstrates the importance of incorporating temporary emigration to accurately estimate abundance of coastal delphinids. Temporary emigration rates were high in this study, despite the large area surveyed, indicating the challenges of sampling highly mobile animals which range over large spatial areas.

An integrated data model to estimate spatiotemporal occupancy, abundance, and colonization dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Perry J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Womble, Jamie N.; Esslinger, George G.; Bower, Michael R.; Hefley, Trevor J.

2017-01-01

Ecological invasions and colonizations occur dynamically through space and time. Estimating the distribution and abundance of colonizing species is critical for efficient management or conservation. We describe a statistical framework for simultaneously estimating spatiotemporal occupancy and abundance dynamics of a colonizing species. Our method accounts for several issues that are common when modeling spatiotemporal ecological data including multiple levels of detection probability, multiple data sources, and computational limitations that occur when making fine-scale inference over a large spatiotemporal domain. We apply the model to estimate the colonization dynamics of sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in Glacier Bay, in southeastern Alaska.

Metal-poor dwarf galaxies in the SIGRID galaxy sample. I. H II region observations and chemical abundances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nicholls, David C.; Dopita, Michael A.; Sutherland, Ralph S.; Jerjen, Helmut; Kewley, Lisa J.; Basurah, Hassan

2014-01-01

In this paper we present the results of observations of 17 H II regions in thirteen galaxies from the SIGRID sample of isolated gas-rich irregular dwarf galaxies. The spectra of all but one of the galaxies exhibit the auroral [O III] 4363 Å line, from which we calculate the electron temperature, T e , and gas-phase oxygen abundance. Five of the objects are blue compact dwarf galaxies, of which four have not previously been analyzed spectroscopically. We include one unusual galaxy which exhibits no evidence of the [N II] λλ 6548,6584 Å lines, suggesting a particularly low metallicity (< Z ☉ /30). We compare the electron temperature based abundances with those derived using eight of the new strong-line diagnostics presented by Dopita et al. Using a method derived from first principles for calculating total oxygen abundance, we show that the discrepancy between the T e -based and strong-line gas-phase abundances have now been reduced to within ∼0.07 dex. The chemical abundances are consistent with what is expected from the luminosity-metallicity relation. We derive estimates of the electron densities and find them to be between ∼5 and ∼100 cm –3 . We find no evidence for a nitrogen plateau for objects in this sample with metallicities 0.5 > Z ☉ > 0.15.

Metal-poor dwarf galaxies in the SIGRID galaxy sample. I. H II region observations and chemical abundances

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nicholls, David C.; Dopita, Michael A.; Sutherland, Ralph S.; Jerjen, Helmut; Kewley, Lisa J. [Research School of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Australian National University, Cotter Road, Weston ACT 2611 (Australia); Basurah, Hassan, E-mail: David.Nicholls@anu.edu.au [Astronomy Department, King Abdulaziz University, P.O. Box 80203 Jeddah (Saudi Arabia)

2014-05-10

In this paper we present the results of observations of 17 H II regions in thirteen galaxies from the SIGRID sample of isolated gas-rich irregular dwarf galaxies. The spectra of all but one of the galaxies exhibit the auroral [O III] 4363 Å line, from which we calculate the electron temperature, T{sub e} , and gas-phase oxygen abundance. Five of the objects are blue compact dwarf galaxies, of which four have not previously been analyzed spectroscopically. We include one unusual galaxy which exhibits no evidence of the [N II] λλ 6548,6584 Å lines, suggesting a particularly low metallicity (< Z {sub ☉}/30). We compare the electron temperature based abundances with those derived using eight of the new strong-line diagnostics presented by Dopita et al. Using a method derived from first principles for calculating total oxygen abundance, we show that the discrepancy between the T{sub e} -based and strong-line gas-phase abundances have now been reduced to within ∼0.07 dex. The chemical abundances are consistent with what is expected from the luminosity-metallicity relation. We derive estimates of the electron densities and find them to be between ∼5 and ∼100 cm{sup –3}. We find no evidence for a nitrogen plateau for objects in this sample with metallicities 0.5 > Z {sub ☉} > 0.15.

Short-range spatial variability of soil δ15N natural abundance – effects on symbiotic N2-fixation estimates in pea

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holdensen, Lars; Hauggaard-Nielsen, Henrik; Jensen, Erik Steen

2007-01-01

abundance in spring barley and N2-fixing pea was measured within the 0.15-4 m scale at flowering and at maturity. The short-range spatial variability of soil δ15N natural abundance and symbiotic nitrogen fixation were high at both growth stages. Along a 4-m row, the δ15N natural abundance in barley......-abundance are that estimates of symbiotic N2-fixation can be obtained from the natural abundance method if at least half a square meter of crop and reference plants is sampled for the isotopic analysis. In fields with small amounts of representative reference crops (weeds) it might be necessary to sow in reference crop...

Line transect estimates of Irrawaddy dolphin abundance along the eastern Gulf Coast of Thailand.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ellen eHines

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Effective conservation of coastal marine mammals is largely dependent on reliable knowledge of their abundance, as well as the ecological and human factors driving their distribution. In developing countries, lack of resources and capacity frequently impedes research needed to estimate abundance and to determine the ecological requirements of coastal marine mammals and the impact of threats related to coastal development and fisheries. Over the course of five years, we developed practical research methods and trained local scientists in Thailand to use accepted line transect distance sampling methods for abundance assessment. The study focused on a little-known coastal and freshwater species found throughout Southeast Asia, namely the Irrawaddy dolphin, which has been sighted regularly along the coast of the eastern Gulf of Thailand. During five years of line transect boat surveys in Trat Province, the eastern-most province in Thailand, we found an average of 423 dolphins distributed within 12km of the coast. Compared to other abundance estimates of coastal Irrawaddy dolphins in Southeast Asia, this is a relatively large number. This population could extend into the northern coast of Cambodia, where surveys are currently being planned. The Thai government has begun talks with Cambodia about a transboundary marine protected area that would include areas in both countries where coastal Irrawaddy dolphins are found. Other analyses include photo-identification, modeling environmental factors that determine presence, determination of fresh vs. salt water foraging using stable isotopes, and an assessment of threats. Collaboration between scientists in Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam is further needed to determine dolphin movement and habitat use across borders.

Influence of Sampling Effort on the Estimated Richness of Road-Killed Vertebrate Wildlife

Science.gov (United States)

Bager, Alex; da Rosa, Clarissa A.

2011-05-01

Road-killed mammals, birds, and reptiles were collected weekly from highways in southern Brazil in 2002 and 2005. The objective was to assess variation in estimates of road-kill impacts on species richness produced by different sampling efforts, and to provide information to aid in the experimental design of future sampling. Richness observed in weekly samples was compared with sampling for different periods. In each period, the list of road-killed species was evaluated based on estimates the community structure derived from weekly samplings, and by the presence of the ten species most subject to road mortality, and also of threatened species. Weekly samples were sufficient only for reptiles and mammals, considered separately. Richness estimated from the biweekly samples was equal to that found in the weekly samples, and gave satisfactory results for sampling the most abundant and threatened species. The ten most affected species showed constant road-mortality rates, independent of sampling interval, and also maintained their dominance structure. Birds required greater sampling effort. When the composition of road-killed species varies seasonally, it is necessary to take biweekly samples for a minimum of one year. Weekly or more-frequent sampling for periods longer than two years is necessary to provide a reliable estimate of total species richness.

Estimating abundance without recaptures of marked pallid sturgeon in the Mississippi River.

Science.gov (United States)

Friedenberg, Nicholas A; Hoover, Jan Jeffrey; Boysen, Krista; Killgore, K Jack

2018-04-01

Abundance estimates are essential for assessing the viability of populations and the risks posed by alternative management actions. An effort to estimate abundance via a repeated mark-recapture experiment may fail to recapture marked individuals. We devised a method for obtaining lower bounds on abundance in the absence of recaptures for both panmictic and spatially structured populations. The method assumes few enough recaptures were expected to be missed by random chance. The upper Bayesian credible limit on expected recaptures allows probabilistic statements about the minimum number of individuals present in the population. We applied this method to data from a 12-year survey of pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) in the lower and middle Mississippi River (U.S.A.). None of the 241 individuals marked was recaptured in the survey. After accounting for survival and movement, our model-averaged estimate of the total abundance of pallid sturgeon ≥3 years old in the study area had a 1%, 5%, or 25% chance of being <4,600, 7,000, or 15,000, respectively. When we assumed fish were distributed in proportion to survey catch per unit effort, the farthest downstream reach in the survey hosted at least 4.5-15 fish per river kilometer (rkm), whereas the remainder of the reaches in the lower and middle Mississippi River hosted at least 2.6-8.5 fish/rkm for all model variations examined. The lower Mississippi River had an average density of pallid sturgeon ≥3 years old of at least 3.0-9.8 fish/rkm. The choice of Bayesian prior was the largest source of uncertainty we considered but did not alter the order of magnitude of lower bounds. Nil-recapture estimates of abundance are highly uncertain and require careful communication but can deliver insights from experiments that might otherwise be considered a failure. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Abundance, distribution and diversity of gelatinous predators along the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge: A comparison of different sampling methodologies.

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Aino Hosia

Full Text Available The diversity and distribution of gelatinous zooplankton were investigated along the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR from June to August 2004.Here, we present results from macrozooplankton trawl sampling, as well as comparisons made between five different methodologies that were employed during the MAR-ECO survey. In total, 16 species of hydromedusae, 31 species of siphonophores and four species of scyphozoans were identified to species level from macrozooplankton trawl samples. Additional taxa were identified to higher taxonomic levels and a single ctenophore genus was observed. Samples were collected at 17 stations along the MAR between the Azores and Iceland. A divergence in the species assemblages was observed at the southern limit of the Subpolar Frontal Zone. The catch composition of gelatinous zooplankton is compared between different sampling methodologies including: a macrozooplankton trawl; a Multinet; a ringnet attached to bottom trawl; and optical platforms (Underwater Video Profiler (UVP & Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV. Different sampling methodologies are shown to exhibit selectivity towards different groups of gelatinous zooplankton. Only ~21% of taxa caught during the survey were caught by both the macrozooplankton trawl and the Multinet when deployed at the same station. The estimates of gelatinous zooplankton abundance calculated using these two gear types also varied widely (1.4 ± 0.9 individuals 1000 m-3 estimated by the macrozooplankton trawl vs. 468.3 ± 315.4 individuals 1000 m-3 estimated by the Multinet (mean ± s.d. when used at the same stations (n = 6. While it appears that traditional net sampling can generate useful data on pelagic cnidarians, comparisons with results from the optical platforms suggest that ctenophore diversity and abundance are consistently underestimated, particularly when net sampling is conducted in combination with formalin fixation. The results emphasise the importance of considering

Abundance, distribution and diversity of gelatinous predators along the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge: A comparison of different sampling methodologies

Science.gov (United States)

Falkenhaug, Tone; Baxter, Emily J.

2017-01-01

The diversity and distribution of gelatinous zooplankton were investigated along the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR) from June to August 2004.Here, we present results from macrozooplankton trawl sampling, as well as comparisons made between five different methodologies that were employed during the MAR-ECO survey. In total, 16 species of hydromedusae, 31 species of siphonophores and four species of scyphozoans were identified to species level from macrozooplankton trawl samples. Additional taxa were identified to higher taxonomic levels and a single ctenophore genus was observed. Samples were collected at 17 stations along the MAR between the Azores and Iceland. A divergence in the species assemblages was observed at the southern limit of the Subpolar Frontal Zone. The catch composition of gelatinous zooplankton is compared between different sampling methodologies including: a macrozooplankton trawl; a Multinet; a ringnet attached to bottom trawl; and optical platforms (Underwater Video Profiler (UVP) & Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV)). Different sampling methodologies are shown to exhibit selectivity towards different groups of gelatinous zooplankton. Only ~21% of taxa caught during the survey were caught by both the macrozooplankton trawl and the Multinet when deployed at the same station. The estimates of gelatinous zooplankton abundance calculated using these two gear types also varied widely (1.4 ± 0.9 individuals 1000 m-3 estimated by the macrozooplankton trawl vs. 468.3 ± 315.4 individuals 1000 m-3 estimated by the Multinet (mean ± s.d.) when used at the same stations (n = 6). While it appears that traditional net sampling can generate useful data on pelagic cnidarians, comparisons with results from the optical platforms suggest that ctenophore diversity and abundance are consistently underestimated, particularly when net sampling is conducted in combination with formalin fixation. The results emphasise the importance of considering sampling methodology

Abundance, distribution and diversity of gelatinous predators along the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge: A comparison of different sampling methodologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Hosia, Aino; Falkenhaug, Tone; Baxter, Emily J; Pagès, Francesc

2017-01-01

The diversity and distribution of gelatinous zooplankton were investigated along the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR) from June to August 2004.Here, we present results from macrozooplankton trawl sampling, as well as comparisons made between five different methodologies that were employed during the MAR-ECO survey. In total, 16 species of hydromedusae, 31 species of siphonophores and four species of scyphozoans were identified to species level from macrozooplankton trawl samples. Additional taxa were identified to higher taxonomic levels and a single ctenophore genus was observed. Samples were collected at 17 stations along the MAR between the Azores and Iceland. A divergence in the species assemblages was observed at the southern limit of the Subpolar Frontal Zone. The catch composition of gelatinous zooplankton is compared between different sampling methodologies including: a macrozooplankton trawl; a Multinet; a ringnet attached to bottom trawl; and optical platforms (Underwater Video Profiler (UVP) & Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV)). Different sampling methodologies are shown to exhibit selectivity towards different groups of gelatinous zooplankton. Only ~21% of taxa caught during the survey were caught by both the macrozooplankton trawl and the Multinet when deployed at the same station. The estimates of gelatinous zooplankton abundance calculated using these two gear types also varied widely (1.4 ± 0.9 individuals 1000 m-3 estimated by the macrozooplankton trawl vs. 468.3 ± 315.4 individuals 1000 m-3 estimated by the Multinet (mean ± s.d.) when used at the same stations (n = 6). While it appears that traditional net sampling can generate useful data on pelagic cnidarians, comparisons with results from the optical platforms suggest that ctenophore diversity and abundance are consistently underestimated, particularly when net sampling is conducted in combination with formalin fixation. The results emphasise the importance of considering sampling methodology

Relative abundance estimations of Chengal trees in a tropical rainforest by using modified canopy fractional cover (mCFC)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hassan, N

2014-01-01

Tree species composition estimations are important to sustain forest management. This study estimates relative abundance of useful timber tree species (chengal) using Hyperion EO-1 satellite data. For the estimation, modified Canopy Fractional Cover (mCFC) was developed using Canopy Fractional Cover (CFC). mCFC was more sensitive to estimate relative abundance of chengal trees rather than Mixture Tuned Matched Filtering (MTMF). Meanwhile, MTMF was more sensitive to estimate the relative abundance of undisturbed forest. Accuracy suggests that the mCFC model is better to explain relative abundance of chengal trees than MTMF. Therefore, it can be concluded that relative abundance of tree species extracted from Hyperion EO-1 satellite data using modified Canopy Fractional Cover is an obtrusive approach used for identifying tree species composition

Estimation of occupancy, breeding success, and predicted abundance of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in the Diablo Range, California, 2014

Science.gov (United States)

Wiens, J. David; Kolar, Patrick S.; Fuller, Mark R.; Hunt, W. Grainger; Hunt, Teresa

2015-01-01

We used a multistate occupancy sampling design to estimate occupancy, breeding success, and abundance of territorial pairs of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in the Diablo Range, California, in 2014. This method uses the spatial pattern of detections and non-detections over repeated visits to survey sites to estimate probabilities of occupancy and successful reproduction while accounting for imperfect detection of golden eagles and their young during surveys. The estimated probability of detecting territorial pairs of golden eagles and their young was less than 1 and varied with time of the breeding season, as did the probability of correctly classifying a pair’s breeding status. Imperfect detection and breeding classification led to a sizeable difference between the uncorrected, naïve estimate of the proportion of occupied sites where successful reproduction was observed (0.20) and the model-based estimate (0.30). The analysis further indicated a relatively high overall probability of landscape occupancy by pairs of golden eagles (0.67, standard error = 0.06), but that areas with the greatest occupancy and reproductive potential were patchily distributed. We documented a total of 138 territorial pairs of golden eagles during surveys completed in the 2014 breeding season, which represented about one-half of the 280 pairs we estimated to occur in the broader 5,169-square kilometer region sampled. The study results emphasize the importance of accounting for imperfect detection and spatial heterogeneity in studies of site occupancy, breeding success, and abundance of golden eagles.

Relative abundance estimations of chengal tree in a tropical rainforest by using modified Canopy Fractional Cover (mCFC)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hassan, N

2014-01-01

Tree species composition estimations are important to sustain forest management. This study challenged estimates of relative abundance of useful timber tree species (chengal) using Hyperion EO-1 satellite data. For the estimation, modified Canopy Fractional Cover (mCFC) was developed using Canopy Fractional Cover (CFC). mCFC was more sensitive to estimate relative abundance of chengal trees rather than Mixture Tuned Matched Filtering (MTMF). Meanwhile, MTMF was more sensitive to estimate the relative abundance of undisturbed forest. Accuracy suggests that the mCFC model is better to explain relative abundance of chengal trees than MTMF. Therefore, it can be concluded that relative abundance of trees species extracted from Hyperion EO-1 satellite data using modified Canopy Fractional Cover is an obtrusive approach used for identifying trees species composition

Estimates of cetacean abundance in European Atlantic waters in summer

OpenAIRE

Hammond, P.S. (Phil) et al. (incl. Santos, M.B. (Maria Begoña)

2017-01-01

This report summarises design-based estimates of abundance for those cetacean species for which sufficient data were obtained during SCANS-III: harbour porpoise, bottlenose dolphin, Risso’s dolphin, white-beaked dolphin, white-sided dolphin, common dolphin, striped dolphin, pilot whale, all beaked whale species combined, sperm whale, minke whale and fin whale.

Trap array configuration influences estimates and precision of black bear density and abundance.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Clay M Wilton

Full Text Available Spatial capture-recapture (SCR models have advanced our ability to estimate population density for wide ranging animals by explicitly incorporating individual movement. Though these models are more robust to various spatial sampling designs, few studies have empirically tested different large-scale trap configurations using SCR models. We investigated how extent of trap coverage and trap spacing affects precision and accuracy of SCR parameters, implementing models using the R package secr. We tested two trapping scenarios, one spatially extensive and one intensive, using black bear (Ursus americanus DNA data from hair snare arrays in south-central Missouri, USA. We also examined the influence that adding a second, lower barbed-wire strand to snares had on quantity and spatial distribution of detections. We simulated trapping data to test bias in density estimates of each configuration under a range of density and detection parameter values. Field data showed that using multiple arrays with intensive snare coverage produced more detections of more individuals than extensive coverage. Consequently, density and detection parameters were more precise for the intensive design. Density was estimated as 1.7 bears per 100 km2 and was 5.5 times greater than that under extensive sampling. Abundance was 279 (95% CI = 193-406 bears in the 16,812 km2 study area. Excluding detections from the lower strand resulted in the loss of 35 detections, 14 unique bears, and the largest recorded movement between snares. All simulations showed low bias for density under both configurations. Results demonstrated that in low density populations with non-uniform distribution of population density, optimizing the tradeoff among snare spacing, coverage, and sample size is of critical importance to estimating parameters with high precision and accuracy. With limited resources, allocating available traps to multiple arrays with intensive trap spacing increased the amount of

Estimating animal abundance with N-mixture models using the R-INLA package for R

KAUST Repository

Meehan, Timothy D.

2017-05-03

Successful management of wildlife populations requires accurate estimates of abundance. Abundance estimates can be confounded by imperfect detection during wildlife surveys. N-mixture models enable quantification of detection probability and often produce abundance estimates that are less biased. The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the use of the R-INLA package to analyze N-mixture models and to compare performance of R-INLA to two other common approaches -- JAGS (via the runjags package), which uses Markov chain Monte Carlo and allows Bayesian inference, and unmarked, which uses Maximum Likelihood and allows frequentist inference. We show that R-INLA is an attractive option for analyzing N-mixture models when (1) familiar model syntax and data format (relative to other R packages) are desired, (2) survey level covariates of detection are not essential, (3) fast computing times are necessary (R-INLA is 10 times faster than unmarked, 300 times faster than JAGS), and (4) Bayesian inference is preferred.

The improvement of precision for estimating the abundance of standing dead trees using auxiliary information under the FIA pot design

Science.gov (United States)

Hong Su An; David W. MacFarlane; Christopher W. Woodall

2012-01-01

Standing dead trees are an important component of forest ecosystems. However, reliable estimates of standing dead tree population parameters can be difficult to obtain due to their low abundance and spatial and temporal variation. After 1999, the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program began collecting data for standing dead trees at the Phase 2 stage of sampling....

At the forefront: evidence of the applicability of using environmental DNA to quantify the abundance of fish populations in natural lentic waters with additional sampling considerations

Science.gov (United States)

Klobucar, Stephen L.; Rodgers, Torrey W.; Budy, Phaedra

2017-01-01

Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling has proven to be a valuable tool for detecting species in aquatic ecosystems. Within this rapidly evolving field, a promising application is the ability to obtain quantitative estimates of relative species abundance based on eDNA concentration rather than traditionally labor-intensive methods. We investigated the relationship between eDNA concentration and Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) abundance in five well-studied natural lakes; additionally, we examined the effects of different temporal (e.g., season) and spatial (e.g., depth) scales on eDNA concentration. Concentrations of eDNA were linearly correlated with char population estimates ( = 0.78) and exponentially correlated with char densities ( = 0.96 by area; 0.82 by volume). Across lakes, eDNA concentrations were greater and more homogeneous in the water column during mixis; however, when stratified, eDNA concentrations were greater in the hypolimnion. Overall, our findings demonstrate that eDNA techniques can produce effective estimates of relative fish abundance in natural lakes. These findings can guide future studies to improve and expand eDNA methods while informing research and management using rapid and minimally invasive sampling.

Dynamic N -occupancy models: estimating demographic rates and local abundance from detection-nondetection data

Science.gov (United States)

Sam Rossman; Charles B. Yackulic; Sarah P. Saunders; Janice Reid; Ray Davis; Elise F. Zipkin

2016-01-01

Occupancy modeling is a widely used analytical technique for assessing species distributions and range dynamics. However, occupancy analyses frequently ignore variation in abundance of occupied sites, even though site abundances affect many of the parameters being estimated (e.g., extinction, colonization, detection probability). We introduce a new model (“dynamic

Estimates of the abundance of minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata from Faroese and Icelandic NASS shipboard surveys

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel G Pike

2009-09-01

Full Text Available North Atlantic Sightings Surveys for cetaceans were carried out Northeast and Central Atlantic in 1987, 1989, 1995 and 2001. Here we provide estimates of density and abundance for minke whales from the Faroese and Icelandic ship surveys. The estimates are not corrected for availability or perception biases. Double platform data collected in 2001 indicates that perception bias is likely considerable for this species. However comparison of corrected estimates of densityfrom aerial surveys with a ship survey estimate from the same area suggests that ship surveys can be nearly unbiased under optimal survey conditions with high searching effort. There were some regional changes in density over the period but no overall changes in density and abundance. Given the recent catch history for minke whales in this area, we would not expect to see changes in abundance due to exploitation that would be detectable with these surveys.

A hierarchical model for estimating the spatial distribution and abundance of animals detected by continuous-time recorders.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert M Dorazio

Full Text Available Several spatial capture-recapture (SCR models have been developed to estimate animal abundance by analyzing the detections of individuals in a spatial array of traps. Most of these models do not use the actual dates and times of detection, even though this information is readily available when using continuous-time recorders, such as microphones or motion-activated cameras. Instead most SCR models either partition the period of trap operation into a set of subjectively chosen discrete intervals and ignore multiple detections of the same individual within each interval, or they simply use the frequency of detections during the period of trap operation and ignore the observed times of detection. Both practices make inefficient use of potentially important information in the data.We developed a hierarchical SCR model to estimate the spatial distribution and abundance of animals detected with continuous-time recorders. Our model includes two kinds of point processes: a spatial process to specify the distribution of latent activity centers of individuals within the region of sampling and a temporal process to specify temporal patterns in the detections of individuals. We illustrated this SCR model by analyzing spatial and temporal patterns evident in the camera-trap detections of tigers living in and around the Nagarahole Tiger Reserve in India. We also conducted a simulation study to examine the performance of our model when analyzing data sets of greater complexity than the tiger data.Our approach provides three important benefits: First, it exploits all of the information in SCR data obtained using continuous-time recorders. Second, it is sufficiently versatile to allow the effects of both space use and behavior of animals to be specified as functions of covariates that vary over space and time. Third, it allows both the spatial distribution and abundance of individuals to be estimated, effectively providing a species distribution model, even in

When are genetic methods useful for estimating contemporary abundance and detecting population trends?

Science.gov (United States)

David A. Tallmon; Dave Gregovich; Robin S. Waples; C. Scott Baker; Jennifer Jackson; Barbara L. Taylor; Eric Archer; Karen K. Martien; Fred W. Allendorf; Michael K. Schwartz

2010-01-01

The utility of microsatellite markers for inferring population size and trend has not been rigorously examined, even though these markers are commonly used to monitor the demography of natural populations. We assessed the ability of a linkage disequilibrium estimator of effective population size (Ne) and a simple capture-recapture estimator of abundance (N) to quantify...

Relative Abundance of Proteins in Blood Plasma Samples from Patients with Chronic Cerebral Ischemia.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaysheva, Anna L; Kopylov, Artur T; Ponomarenko, Elena A; Kiseleva, Olga I; Teryaeva, Nadezhda B; Potapov, Alexander A; Izotov, Alexander А; Morozov, Sergei G; Kudryavtseva, Valeria Yu; Archakov, Alexander I

2018-03-01

A comparative protein profile analysis of 17 blood plasma samples from patients with ischemia and 20 samples from healthy volunteers was carried out using ultra-high resolution mass spectrometry. The analysis of measurements was performed using the proteomics search engine OMSSA. Normalized spectrum abundance factor (NSAF) in the biological samples was assessed using SearchGUI. The findings of mass spectrometry analysis of the protein composition of blood plasma samples demonstrate that the depleted samples are quite similar in protein composition and relative abundance of proteins. By comparing them with the control samples, we have found a small group of 44 proteins characteristic of the blood plasma samples from patients with chronic cerebral ischemia. These proteins contribute to the processes of homeostasis maintenance, including innate immune response unfolding, the response of a body to stress, and contribution to the blood clotting cascade.

Sampling and estimating recreational use.

Science.gov (United States)

Timothy G. Gregoire; Gregory J. Buhyoff

1999-01-01

Probability sampling methods applicable to estimate recreational use are presented. Both single- and multiple-access recreation sites are considered. One- and two-stage sampling methods are presented. Estimation of recreational use is presented in a series of examples.

Low-sampling-rate ultra-wideband channel estimation using equivalent-time sampling

KAUST Repository

Ballal, Tarig

2014-09-01

In this paper, a low-sampling-rate scheme for ultra-wideband channel estimation is proposed. The scheme exploits multiple observations generated by transmitting multiple pulses. In the proposed scheme, P pulses are transmitted to produce channel impulse response estimates at a desired sampling rate, while the ADC samples at a rate that is P times slower. To avoid loss of fidelity, the number of sampling periods (based on the desired rate) in the inter-pulse interval is restricted to be co-prime with P. This condition is affected when clock drift is present and the transmitted pulse locations change. To handle this case, and to achieve an overall good channel estimation performance, without using prior information, we derive an improved estimator based on the bounded data uncertainty (BDU) model. It is shown that this estimator is related to the Bayesian linear minimum mean squared error (LMMSE) estimator. Channel estimation performance of the proposed sub-sampling scheme combined with the new estimator is assessed in simulation. The results show that high reduction in sampling rate can be achieved. The proposed estimator outperforms the least squares estimator in almost all cases, while in the high SNR regime it also outperforms the LMMSE estimator. In addition to channel estimation, a synchronization method is also proposed that utilizes the same pulse sequence used for channel estimation. © 2014 IEEE.

Estimating DNA coverage and abundance in metagenomes using a gamma approximation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hooper, Sean D; Dalevi, Daniel; Pati, Amrita; Mavromatis, Konstantinos; Ivanova, Natalia N; Kyrpides, Nikos C

2010-01-01

Shotgun sequencing generates large numbers of short DNA reads from either an isolated organism or, in the case of metagenomics projects, from the aggregate genome of a microbial community. These reads are then assembled based on overlapping sequences into larger, contiguous sequences (contigs). The feasibility of assembly and the coverage achieved (reads per nucleotide or distinct sequence of nucleotides) depend on several factors: the number of reads sequenced, the read length and the relative abundances of their source genomes in the microbial community. A low coverage suggests that most of the genomic DNA in the sample has not been sequenced, but it is often difficult to estimate either the extent of the uncaptured diversity or the amount of additional sequencing that would be most efficacious. In this work, we regard a metagenome as a population of DNA fragments (bins), each of which may be covered by one or more reads. We employ a gamma distribution to model this bin population due to its flexibility and ease of use. When a gamma approximation can be found that adequately fits the data, we may estimate the number of bins that were not sequenced and that could potentially be revealed by additional sequencing. We evaluated the performance of this model using simulated metagenomes and demonstrate its applicability on three recent metagenomic datasets.

Inferring invasive species abundance using removal data from management actions

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Amy J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Miller, Ryan S.; Farnsworth, Matthew L.; Lewis, Jesse S.; Moxcey, Michael; Pepin, Kim M.

2016-01-01

Evaluation of the progress of management programs for invasive species is crucial for demonstrating impacts to stakeholders and strategic planning of resource allocation. Estimates of abundance before and after management activities can serve as a useful metric of population management programs. However, many methods of estimating population size are too labor intensive and costly to implement, posing restrictive levels of burden on operational programs. Removal models are a reliable method for estimating abundance before and after management using data from the removal activities exclusively, thus requiring no work in addition to management. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate abundance from removal data accounting for varying levels of effort, and used simulations to assess the conditions under which reliable population estimates are obtained. We applied this model to estimate site-specific abundance of an invasive species, feral swine (Sus scrofa), using removal data from aerial gunning in 59 site/time-frame combinations (480–19,600 acres) throughout Oklahoma and Texas, USA. Simulations showed that abundance estimates were generally accurate when effective removal rates (removal rate accounting for total effort) were above 0.40. However, when abundances were small (<50) the effective removal rate needed to accurately estimates abundances was considerably higher (0.70). Based on our post-validation method, 78% of our site/time frame estimates were accurate. To use this modeling framework it is important to have multiple removals (more than three) within a time frame during which demographic changes are minimized (i.e., a closed population; ≤3 months for feral swine). Our results show that the probability of accurately estimating abundance from this model improves with increased sampling effort (8+ flight hours across the 3-month window is best) and increased removal rate. Based on the inverse relationship between inaccurate abundances and

Inferring invasive species abundance using removal data from management actions.

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Amy J; Hooten, Mevin B; Miller, Ryan S; Farnsworth, Matthew L; Lewis, Jesse; Moxcey, Michael; Pepin, Kim M

2016-10-01

Evaluation of the progress of management programs for invasive species is crucial for demonstrating impacts to stakeholders and strategic planning of resource allocation. Estimates of abundance before and after management activities can serve as a useful metric of population management programs. However, many methods of estimating population size are too labor intensive and costly to implement, posing restrictive levels of burden on operational programs. Removal models are a reliable method for estimating abundance before and after management using data from the removal activities exclusively, thus requiring no work in addition to management. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate abundance from removal data accounting for varying levels of effort, and used simulations to assess the conditions under which reliable population estimates are obtained. We applied this model to estimate site-specific abundance of an invasive species, feral swine (Sus scrofa), using removal data from aerial gunning in 59 site/time-frame combinations (480-19,600 acres) throughout Oklahoma and Texas, USA. Simulations showed that abundance estimates were generally accurate when effective removal rates (removal rate accounting for total effort) were above 0.40. However, when abundances were small (removal rate needed to accurately estimates abundances was considerably higher (0.70). Based on our post-validation method, 78% of our site/time frame estimates were accurate. To use this modeling framework it is important to have multiple removals (more than three) within a time frame during which demographic changes are minimized (i.e., a closed population; ≤3 months for feral swine). Our results show that the probability of accurately estimating abundance from this model improves with increased sampling effort (8+ flight hours across the 3-month window is best) and increased removal rate. Based on the inverse relationship between inaccurate abundances and inaccurate removal

Sample size estimation and sampling techniques for selecting a representative sample

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aamir Omair

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction: The purpose of this article is to provide a general understanding of the concepts of sampling as applied to health-related research. Sample Size Estimation: It is important to select a representative sample in quantitative research in order to be able to generalize the results to the target population. The sample should be of the required sample size and must be selected using an appropriate probability sampling technique. There are many hidden biases which can adversely affect the outcome of the study. Important factors to consider for estimating the sample size include the size of the study population, confidence level, expected proportion of the outcome variable (for categorical variables/standard deviation of the outcome variable (for numerical variables, and the required precision (margin of accuracy from the study. The more the precision required, the greater is the required sample size. Sampling Techniques: The probability sampling techniques applied for health related research include simple random sampling, systematic random sampling, stratified random sampling, cluster sampling, and multistage sampling. These are more recommended than the nonprobability sampling techniques, because the results of the study can be generalized to the target population.

Negative binomial models for abundance estimation of multiple closed populations

Science.gov (United States)

Boyce, Mark S.; MacKenzie, Darry I.; Manly, Bryan F.J.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Moody, David W.

2001-01-01

Counts of uniquely identified individuals in a population offer opportunities to estimate abundance. However, for various reasons such counts may be burdened by heterogeneity in the probability of being detected. Theoretical arguments and empirical evidence demonstrate that the negative binomial distribution (NBD) is a useful characterization for counts from biological populations with heterogeneity. We propose a method that focuses on estimating multiple populations by simultaneously using a suite of models derived from the NBD. We used this approach to estimate the number of female grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone ecosystem, for each year, 1986-1998. Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC) indicated that a negative binomial model with a constant level of heterogeneity across all years was best for characterizing the sighting frequencies of female grizzly bears. A lack-of-fit test indicated the model adequately described the collected data. Bootstrap techniques were used to estimate standard errors and 95% confidence intervals. We provide a Monte Carlo technique, which confirms that the Yellowstone ecosystem grizzly bear population increased during the period 1986-1998.

Estimating abundance of Sitka black-tailed deer using DNA from fecal pellets

Science.gov (United States)

Todd J. Brinkman; David K. Person; F. Stuart Chapin; Winston Smith; Kris J. Hundertmark

2011-01-01

Densely vegetated environments have hindered collection of basic population parameters on forest-dwelling ungulates. Our objective was to develop a mark-recapture technique that used DNA from fecal pellets to overcome constraints associated with estimating abundance of ungulates in landscapes where direct observation is difficult. We tested our technique on Sitka black...

Striped bass ichthyoplankton abundance, mortality, and production estimation for the Potomac River population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Polgar, T.T.

1977-01-01

Methods are developed for estimating, from field survey data, the mortality rate and production for each successive ichthyoplanktonic stage. The abundance estimators used in the computation of these quantities are also derived. An age-dependent, ichthyoplankton population model is developed assuming either a uniform age distribution or an exponential age distribution within each stage. Striped bass egg and larval data from a 1974 ichthyoplankton survey in the Potomac River are used in model computations. The various model estimates are evaluated qualitatively, and the usefulness and limitations of the models are discussed

Modeling the relationship between water level, wild rice abundance, and waterfowl abundance at a central North American wetland

Science.gov (United States)

Aagaard, Kevin; Eash, Josh D.; Ford, Walt; Heglund, Patricia J.; McDowell, Michelle; Thogmartin, Wayne E.

2018-01-01

Recent evidence suggests wild rice (Zizania palustris), an important resource for migrating waterfowl, is declining in parts of central North America, providing motivation to rigorously quantify the relationship between waterfowl and wild rice. A hierarchical mixed-effects model was applied to data on waterfowl abundance for 16 species, wild rice stem density, and two measures of water depth (true water depth at vegetation sampling locations and water surface elevation). Results provide evidence for an effect of true water depth (TWD) on wild rice abundance (posterior mean estimate for TWD coefficient, β TWD = 0.92, 95% confidence interval = 0.11—1.74), but not for an effect of wild rice stem density or water surface elevation on local waterfowl abundance (posterior mean values for relevant parameters overlapped 0). Refined protocols for sampling design and more consistent sampling frequency to increase data quality should be pursued to overcome issues that may have obfuscated relationships evaluated here.

Evaluating abundance and trends in a Hawaiian avian community using state-space analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Gorresen, P.M.; Paxton, Eben H.

2016-01-01

Estimating population abundances and patterns of change over time are important in both ecology and conservation. Trend assessment typically entails fitting a regression to a time series of abundances to estimate population trajectory. However, changes in abundance estimates from year-to-year across time are due to both true variation in population size (process variation) and variation due to imperfect sampling and model fit. State-space models are a relatively new method that can be used to partition the error components and quantify trends based only on process variation. We compare a state-space modelling approach with a more traditional linear regression approach to assess trends in uncorrected raw counts and detection-corrected abundance estimates of forest birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai‘i. Most species demonstrated similar trends using either method. In general, evidence for trends using state-space models was less strong than for linear regression, as measured by estimates of precision. However, while the state-space models may sacrifice precision, the expectation is that these estimates provide a better representation of the real world biological processes of interest because they are partitioning process variation (environmental and demographic variation) and observation variation (sampling and model variation). The state-space approach also provides annual estimates of abundance which can be used by managers to set conservation strategies, and can be linked to factors that vary by year, such as climate, to better understand processes that drive population trends.

Aerial Survey as a Tool to Estimate Abundance and Describe Distribution of a Carcharhinid Species, the Lemon Shark, Negaprion brevirostris

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. T. Kessel

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Aerial survey provides an important tool to assess the abundance of both terrestrial and marine vertebrates. To date, limited work has tested the effectiveness of this technique to estimate the abundance of smaller shark species. In Bimini, Bahamas, the lemon shark (Negaprion brevirostris shows high site fidelity to a shallow sandy lagoon, providing an ideal test species to determine the effectiveness of localised aerial survey techniques for a Carcharhinid species in shallow subtropical waters. Between September 2007 and September 2008, visual surveys were conducted from light aircraft following defined transects ranging in length between 8.8 and 4.4 km. Count results were corrected for “availability”, “perception”, and “survey intensity” to provide unbiased abundance estimates. The abundance of lemon sharks was greatest in the central area of the lagoon during high tide, with a change in abundance distribution to the east and western regions of the lagoon with low tide. Mean abundance of sharks was estimated at 49 (±8.6 individuals, and monthly abundance was significantly positively correlated with mean water temperature. The successful implementation of the aerial survey technique highlighted the potential of further employment for shark abundance assessments in shallow coastal marine environments.

Fishery-independent surface abundance and density estimates of swordfish (Xiphias gladius) from aerial surveys in the Central Mediterranean Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Lauriano, Giancarlo; Pierantonio, Nino; Kell, Laurence; Cañadas, Ana; Donovan, Gregory; Panigada, Simone

2017-07-01

Fishery-independent surface density and abundance estimates for the swordfish were obtained through aerial surveys carried out over a large portion of the Central Mediterranean, implementing distance sampling methodologies. Both design- and model-based abundance and density showed an uneven occurrence of the species throughout the study area, with clusters of higher density occurring near converging fronts, strong thermoclines and/or underwater features. The surface abundance was estimated for the Pelagos Sanctuary for Mediterranean Marine Mammals in the summer of 2009 (n=1152; 95%CI=669.0-1981.0; %CV=27.64), the Sea of Sardinia, the Pelagos Sanctuary and the Central Tyrrhenian Sea for the summer of 2010 (n=3401; 95%CI=2067.0-5596.0; %CV=25.51), and for the Southern Tyrrhenian Sea during the winter months of 2010-2011 (n=1228; 95%CI=578-2605; %CV=38.59). The Mediterranean swordfish stock deserves special attention in light of the heavy fishing pressures. Furthermore, the unreliability of fishery-related data has, to date, hampered our ability to effectively inform long-term conservation in the Mediterranean Region. Considering that the European countries have committed to protect the resources and all the marine-related economic and social dynamics upon which they depend, the information presented here constitute useful data towards the international legal requirements under the Marine Strategy Framework Directory, the Common Fisheries Policy, the Habitats and Species Directive and the Directive on Maritime Spatial Planning, among the others.

Evaluation of natural 15N abundance method in estimating symbiotic dinitrogen fixation by leguminous grasses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yao Yunyin; Cheng Ming; Ma Changlin; Wang Zhidong; Hou Jinqin; Zhang Lihong; Luo Yongyun

1991-01-01

Natural 15 N abundance method was used to estimate contribution of symbiotic dinitrogen fixation by leguminous grasses. With the method the expensive 15 N fertilizer did not need to be applied to the soil and the normal ecosystem was not disturbed. Collecting samples of shoots of leguminous grasses and measuring the content of 15 N in them wee all to do for estimating potential of symbiotically fixed N 2 . Isotopic fractionation associated with N 2 fixation by legumes was studied. Values for 7 cultivars of alfalfa were ranged between 1.0000 ∼ 1.0015 (δ 15 N values were -0.05 ∼ 1.47 per mille); and the values for white clover, mung bean and whitepopinac lead tree were 0.0079, 0.9983 and 1.0018 (δ 15 N values: 2.15, 1.74 and -1.81 per mille) respectively. According to the δ 15 N values of grasses tested, the potential of N 2 fixation for 6 cultivars of alfalfa was estimated. Glory and rambler had higher potential of N 2 fixation; Baoding, Aigonquin and Minto had lower potential, and Peru was the lowest.N 2 fixing activity of alfalfa varied with different periods. The peak was found between June and July. Effects of non-N 2 -fixing references and different methods on estimates of %Ndfa of leguminous grasses were also discussed

Estimate of symbiotically fixed nitrogen in field grown soybeans using variations in 15N natural abundance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amarger, N.; Durr, J.C.; Bourguignon, C.; Lagacherie, B.; Mariotti, A.; Mariotti, F.

1979-01-01

The use of variations in natural abundance of 15 N between nitrogen fixing and non nitrogen fixing soybeans was investigated for quantitative estimate of symbiotic nitrogen fixation. Isotopic analysis of 4 varieties of inoculated and non-inoculated soybeans growing under field conditions, with and without N-fertilizer was determined. It was found that inoculated soybeans had a significantly lower 15 N content than non-inoculated ones. Estimates of the participation of fixed N to the total nitrogen content of inoculated soybeans were calculated from these differences. They were compared to estimates calculated from differences in N yield between inoculated and non-inoculated plants and to the nitrogenase activity, measured by the C 2 H 2 reduction assay over the growing season. Estimates given by the 15 N measurements were correlated with the C 2 H 2 reducing activity but not with the differences in the N yield. This shows that the isotopic composition was dependent on the amount of fixed nitrogen and consequently that the estimates of fixed nitrogen based on natural 15 N abundance should be reliable. The absence of correlation between estimates based on 15 N content and estimates based on N yield was explained by differences in the uptake of soil nitrogen between inoculated and non inoculated soybeans. (Auth.)

Evaluation of species richness estimators based on quantitative performance measures and sensitivity to patchiness and sample grain size

Science.gov (United States)

Willie, Jacob; Petre, Charles-Albert; Tagg, Nikki; Lens, Luc

2012-11-01

Data from forest herbaceous plants in a site of known species richness in Cameroon were used to test the performance of rarefaction and eight species richness estimators (ACE, ICE, Chao1, Chao2, Jack1, Jack2, Bootstrap and MM). Bias, accuracy, precision and sensitivity to patchiness and sample grain size were the evaluation criteria. An evaluation of the effects of sampling effort and patchiness on diversity estimation is also provided. Stems were identified and counted in linear series of 1-m2 contiguous square plots distributed in six habitat types. Initially, 500 plots were sampled in each habitat type. The sampling process was monitored using rarefaction and a set of richness estimator curves. Curves from the first dataset suggested adequate sampling in riparian forest only. Additional plots ranging from 523 to 2143 were subsequently added in the undersampled habitats until most of the curves stabilized. Jack1 and ICE, the non-parametric richness estimators, performed better, being more accurate and less sensitive to patchiness and sample grain size, and significantly reducing biases that could not be detected by rarefaction and other estimators. This study confirms the usefulness of non-parametric incidence-based estimators, and recommends Jack1 or ICE alongside rarefaction while describing taxon richness and comparing results across areas sampled using similar or different grain sizes. As patchiness varied across habitat types, accurate estimations of diversity did not require the same number of plots. The number of samples needed to fully capture diversity is not necessarily the same across habitats, and can only be known when taxon sampling curves have indicated adequate sampling. Differences in observed species richness between habitats were generally due to differences in patchiness, except between two habitats where they resulted from differences in abundance. We suggest that communities should first be sampled thoroughly using appropriate taxon sampling

Comparison of hoop-net trapping and visual surveys to monitor abundance of the Rio Grande cooter (Pseudemys gorzugi

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Ivana Mali

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Abundance estimates play an important part in the regulatory and conservation decision-making process. It is important to correct monitoring data for imperfect detection when using these data to track spatial and temporal variation in abundance, especially in the case of rare and elusive species. This paper presents the first attempt to estimate abundance of the Rio Grande cooter (Pseudemys gorzugi while explicitly considering the detection process. Specifically, in 2016 we monitored this rare species at two sites along the Black River, New Mexico via traditional baited hoop-net traps and less invasive visual surveys to evaluate the efficacy of these two sampling designs. We fitted the Huggins closed-capture estimator to estimate capture probabilities using the trap data and distance sampling models to estimate detection probabilities using the visual survey data. We found that only the visual survey with the highest number of observed turtles resulted in similar abundance estimates to those estimated using the trap data. However, the estimates of abundance from the remaining visual survey data were highly variable and often underestimated abundance relative to the estimates from the trap data. We suspect this pattern is related to changes in the basking behavior of the species and, thus, the availability of turtles to be detected even though all visual surveys were conducted when environmental conditions were similar. Regardless, we found that riverine habitat conditions limited our ability to properly conduct visual surveys at one site. Collectively, this suggests visual surveys may not be an effective sample design for this species in this river system. When analyzing the trap data, we found capture probabilities to be highly variable across sites and between age classes and that recapture probabilities were much lower than initial capture probabilities, highlighting the importance of accounting for detectability when monitoring this species

An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model

Science.gov (United States)

Sollmann, Rachel; Beth Gardner,; Richard B Chandler,; Royle, J. Andrew; T Scott Sillett,

2015-01-01

Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for direct estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for island scrub-jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying number of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model.

Science.gov (United States)

Sollmann, Rahel; Gardner, Beth; Chandler, Richard B; Royle, J Andrew; Sillett, T Scott

2015-02-01

Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for Island Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying numbers of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

Power and sample-size estimation for microbiome studies using pairwise distances and PERMANOVA.

Science.gov (United States)

Kelly, Brendan J; Gross, Robert; Bittinger, Kyle; Sherrill-Mix, Scott; Lewis, James D; Collman, Ronald G; Bushman, Frederic D; Li, Hongzhe

2015-08-01

The variation in community composition between microbiome samples, termed beta diversity, can be measured by pairwise distance based on either presence-absence or quantitative species abundance data. PERMANOVA, a permutation-based extension of multivariate analysis of variance to a matrix of pairwise distances, partitions within-group and between-group distances to permit assessment of the effect of an exposure or intervention (grouping factor) upon the sampled microbiome. Within-group distance and exposure/intervention effect size must be accurately modeled to estimate statistical power for a microbiome study that will be analyzed with pairwise distances and PERMANOVA. We present a framework for PERMANOVA power estimation tailored to marker-gene microbiome studies that will be analyzed by pairwise distances, which includes: (i) a novel method for distance matrix simulation that permits modeling of within-group pairwise distances according to pre-specified population parameters; (ii) a method to incorporate effects of different sizes within the simulated distance matrix; (iii) a simulation-based method for estimating PERMANOVA power from simulated distance matrices; and (iv) an R statistical software package that implements the above. Matrices of pairwise distances can be efficiently simulated to satisfy the triangle inequality and incorporate group-level effects, which are quantified by the adjusted coefficient of determination, omega-squared (ω2). From simulated distance matrices, available PERMANOVA power or necessary sample size can be estimated for a planned microbiome study. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Abundances in field dwarf stars. II. Carbon and nitrogen abundances

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Laird, J.B.

1985-02-15

Intermediate-dispersion spectra of 116 field dwarf stars, plus 10 faint field giants and 3 Hyades dwarfs, have been used to derive carbon and nitrogen abundances relative to iron. The program sample includes both disk and halo stars, spanning a range in (Fe/H) of +0.50 to -2.45. Synthetic spectra of CH and NH bands have been used to determine carbon and nitrogen abundances. The C/Fe ratio is solar over the range of metallicity studied, with an estimated intrinsic scatter of 0.10 dex. Down to (Fe/H)roughly-equal-1.8, below which the nitrogen abundance could not be measured, the N/Fe ratio is also constant for the majority of stars, indicating that nitrogen production is largely primary. Four halo stars are found to be enhanced in nitrogen relative to iron, by factors between 5 and 50, although their carbon abundances appear to be normal. These results are discussed in connection with the chemical evolution of the Galaxy and the sites of C, N, and Fe nucleosynthesis. The results require that C, N, and Fe be produced in stars of similar mass. Our current understanding of N production, then, implies that most Type I supernovae have intermediate-mass progenitors. The nitrogen in the N-enhanced halo stars is very probably primordial, indicating that the interstellar medium at early epochs contained substantial inhomogeneities.

Abundances in field dwarf stars. II. Carbon and nitrogen abundances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laird, J.B.

1985-01-01

Intermediate-dispersion spectra of 116 field dwarf stars, plus 10 faint field giants and 3 Hyades dwarfs, have been used to derive carbon and nitrogen abundances relative to iron. The program sample includes both disk and halo stars, spanning a range in [Fe/H] of +0.50 to -2.45. Synthetic spectra of CH and NH bands have been used to determine carbon and nitrogen abundances. The C/Fe ratio is solar over the range of metallicity studied, with an estimated intrinsic scatter of 0.10 dex. Down to [Fe/H]roughly-equal-1.8, below which the nitrogen abundance could not be measured, the N/Fe ratio is also constant for the majority of stars, indicating that nitrogen production is largely primary. Four halo stars are found to be enhanced in nitrogen relative to iron, by factors between 5 and 50, although their carbon abundances appear to be normal. These results are discussed in connection with the chemical evolution of the Galaxy and the sites of C, N, and Fe nucleosynthesis. The results require that C, N, and Fe be produced in stars of similar mass. Our current understanding of N production, then, implies that most Type I supernovae have intermediate-mass progenitors. The nitrogen in the N-enhanced halo stars is very probably primordial, indicating that the interstellar medium at early epochs contained substantial inhomogeneities

ELEMENTAL ABUNDANCE RATIOS IN STARS OF THE OUTER GALACTIC DISK. IV. A NEW SAMPLE OF OPEN CLUSTERS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yong, David; Carney, Bruce W.; Friel, Eileen D.

2012-01-01

We present radial velocities and chemical abundances for nine stars in the old, distant open clusters Be18, Be21, Be22, Be32, and PWM4. For Be18 and PWM4, these are the first chemical abundance measurements. Combining our data with literature results produces a compilation of some 68 chemical abundance measurements in 49 unique clusters. For this combined sample, we study the chemical abundances of open clusters as a function of distance, age, and metallicity. We confirm that the metallicity gradient in the outer disk is flatter than the gradient in the vicinity of the solar neighborhood. We also confirm that the open clusters in the outer disk are metal-poor with enhancements in the ratios [α/Fe] and perhaps [Eu/Fe]. All elements show negligible or small trends between [X/Fe] and distance ( –1 ), but for some elements, there is a hint that the local (R GC GC > 13 kpc) samples may have different trends with distance. There is no evidence for significant abundance trends versus age ( –1 ). We measure the linear relation between [X/Fe] and metallicity, [Fe/H], and find that the scatter about the mean trend is comparable to the measurement uncertainties. Comparison with solar neighborhood field giants shows that the open clusters share similar abundance ratios [X/Fe] at a given metallicity. While the flattening of the metallicity gradient and enhanced [α/Fe] ratios in the outer disk suggest a chemical enrichment history different from that of the solar neighborhood, we echo the sentiments expressed by Friel et al. that definitive conclusions await homogeneous analyses of larger samples of stars in larger numbers of clusters. Arguably, our understanding of the evolution of the outer disk from open clusters is currently limited by systematic abundance differences between various studies.

Are Antarctic minke whales unusually abundant because of 20th century whaling?

Science.gov (United States)

Ruegg, Kristen C; Anderson, Eric C; Scott Baker, C; Vant, Murdoch; Jackson, Jennifer A; Palumbi, Stephen R

2010-01-01

Severe declines in megafauna worldwide illuminate the role of top predators in ecosystem structure. In the Antarctic, the Krill Surplus Hypothesis posits that the killing of more than 2 million large whales led to competitive release for smaller krill-eating species like the Antarctic minke whale. If true, the current size of the Antarctic minke whale population may be unusually high as an indirect result of whaling. Here, we estimate the long-term population size of the Antarctic minke whale prior to whaling by sequencing 11 nuclear genetic markers from 52 modern samples purchased in Japanese meat markets. We use coalescent simulations to explore the potential influence of population substructure and find that even though our samples are drawn from a limited geographic area, our estimate reflects ocean-wide genetic diversity. Using Bayesian estimates of the mutation rate and coalescent-based analyses of genetic diversity across loci, we calculate the long-term population size of the Antarctic minke whale to be 670,000 individuals (95% confidence interval: 374,000-1,150,000). Our estimate of long-term abundance is similar to, or greater than, contemporary abundance estimates, suggesting that managing Antarctic ecosystems under the assumption that Antarctic minke whales are unusually abundant is not warranted.

Evaluation of sampling strategies to estimate crown biomass

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Krishna P Poudel

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Background Depending on tree and site characteristics crown biomass accounts for a significant portion of the total aboveground biomass in the tree. Crown biomass estimation is useful for different purposes including evaluating the economic feasibility of crown utilization for energy production or forest products, fuel load assessments and fire management strategies, and wildfire modeling. However, crown biomass is difficult to predict because of the variability within and among species and sites. Thus the allometric equations used for predicting crown biomass should be based on data collected with precise and unbiased sampling strategies. In this study, we evaluate the performance different sampling strategies to estimate crown biomass and to evaluate the effect of sample size in estimating crown biomass. Methods Using data collected from 20 destructively sampled trees, we evaluated 11 different sampling strategies using six evaluation statistics: bias, relative bias, root mean square error (RMSE, relative RMSE, amount of biomass sampled, and relative biomass sampled. We also evaluated the performance of the selected sampling strategies when different numbers of branches (3, 6, 9, and 12 are selected from each tree. Tree specific log linear model with branch diameter and branch length as covariates was used to obtain individual branch biomass. Results Compared to all other methods stratified sampling with probability proportional to size estimation technique produced better results when three or six branches per tree were sampled. However, the systematic sampling with ratio estimation technique was the best when at least nine branches per tree were sampled. Under the stratified sampling strategy, selecting unequal number of branches per stratum produced approximately similar results to simple random sampling, but it further decreased RMSE when information on branch diameter is used in the design and estimation phases. Conclusions Use of

Variation in pre-treatment count lead time and its effect on baseline estimates of cage-level sea lice abundance.

Science.gov (United States)

Gautam, R; Boerlage, A S; Vanderstichel, R; Revie, C W; Hammell, K L

2016-11-01

Treatment efficacy studies typically use pre-treatment sea lice abundance as the baseline. However, the pre-treatment counting window often varies from the day of treatment to several days before treatment. We assessed the effect of lead time on baseline estimates, using historical data (2010-14) from a sea lice data management programme (Fish-iTrends). Data were aggregated at the cage level for three life stages: (i) chalimus, (ii) pre-adult and adult male and (iii) adult female. Sea lice counts were log-transformed, and mean counts by lead time relative to treatment day were computed and compared separately for each life stage, using linear mixed models. There were 1,658 observations (treatment events) from 56 sites in 5 Bay Management Areas. Our study showed that lead time had a significant effect on the estimated sea lice abundance, which was moderated by season. During the late summer and autumn periods, counting on the day of treatment gave significantly higher values than other days and would be a more appropriate baseline estimate, while during spring and early summer abundance estimates were comparable among counts within 5 days of treatment. A season-based lead time window may be most appropriate when estimating baseline sea lice levels. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Estimates of zooplankton abundance and size distribution with the Optical Plankton Counter (OPC)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wieland, Kai; Petersen, D.; Schnack, D.

1997-01-01

The capability of the Optical Plankton Count er (OPC) to examine the abundance and size distribution of zooplankton was tested in Storfjorden, Norway, in June 1993. Selected material obtained from net sampling was measured with a laboratory version of the OPC and compared with microscope analysis...

Variability in abundance of temperate reef fishes estimated by visual census.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alejo J Irigoyen

Full Text Available Identifying sources of sampling variation and quantifying their magnitude is critical to the interpretation of ecological field data. Yet, most monitoring programs of reef fish populations based on underwater visual censuses (UVC consider only a few of the factors that may influence fish counts, such as the diver or census methodology. Recent studies, however, have drawn attention to a broader range of processes that introduce variability at different temporal scales. This study analyzes the magnitude of different sources of variation in UVCs of temperate reef fishes off Patagonia (Argentina. The variability associated with time-of-day, tidal state, and time elapsed between censuses (minutes, days, weeks and months was quantified for censuses conducted on the five most conspicuous and common species: Pinguipes brasilianus, Pseudopercis semifasciata, Sebastes oculatus, Acanthistius patachonicus and Nemadactylus bergi. Variance components corresponding to spatial heterogeneity and to the different temporal scales were estimated using nested random models. The levels of variability estimated for the different species were related to their life history attributes and behavior. Neither time-of-day nor tidal state had a significant effect on counts, except for the influence of tide on P. brasilianus. Spatial heterogeneity was the dominant source of variance in all but one species. Among the temporal scales, the intra-annual variation was the highest component for most species due to marked seasonal fluctuations in abundance, followed by the weekly and the instantaneous variation; the daily component was not significant. The variability between censuses conducted at different tidal levels and time-of-day was similar in magnitude to the instantaneous variation, reinforcing the conclusion that stochastic variation at very short time scales is non-negligible and should be taken into account in the design of monitoring programs and experiments. The present

Capture-recapture abundance and survival estimates of three cetacean species in Icelandic coastal waters using trained scientist-volunteers

Science.gov (United States)

Bertulli, Chiara G.; Guéry, Loreleï; McGinty, Niall; Suzuki, Ailie; Brannan, Naomi; Marques, Tania; Rasmussen, Marianne H.; Gimenez, Olivier

2018-01-01

Knowledge of abundance and survival of humpback whales, white-beaked dolphins and minke whales are essential to manage and conserve these species in Icelandic coastal shelf waters. Our main goal was to test the feasibility of employing inexpensive research methods (data collected by trained-scientist volunteers onboard opportunistic vessels) to assess abundance and apparent survival. No previous studies in Iceland have investigated these two demographic parameters in these three cetacean species using open capture-recapture models accounting for imperfect and possibly heterogeneous detection. A transient effect was accounted for whenever required to estimate the population of resident individuals. Identification photographs were collected by scientist-trained volunteers for 7 years (2006-2013) from onboard commercial whale-watching vessels in the coastal waters of Faxaflói (southwest coast, 4400 km2) and Skjálfandi (northeast coast, 1100 km2), Iceland. We estimated an average abundance of 83 humpback whales (Mn; 95% confidence interval: 54-130) in Skjálfandi; 238 white-beaked dolphins (La; [163-321]) in Faxaflói; and 67 minke whales (Ba; [53-82]) in Faxaflói and 24 (14-31) in Skjálfandi. We also found that apparent survival was constant for all three species (Mn: 0.52 [0.41-0.63], La: 0.79 [0.64-0.88], Ba-Faxaflói: 0.80 [0.67-0.88], Ba-Skjálfandi: 0.96 [0.60-0.99]). Our results showed inter-annual variation in abundance estimates which were small for all species, and the presence of transience for minke whales. A significant increase in abundance during the study period was solely found in minke whale data from Skjálfandi. Humpback whales and white-beaked dolphins showed lower apparent survival rates compared to similar baleen whale and dolphin populations. Our results show data collected by trained-scientist volunteers can produce viable estimates of abundance and survival although bias in the methods we employed exist and need to be addressed. With the

An econometric method for estimating population parameters from non-random samples: An application to clinical case finding.

Science.gov (United States)

Burger, Rulof P; McLaren, Zoë M

2017-09-01

The problem of sample selection complicates the process of drawing inference about populations. Selective sampling arises in many real world situations when agents such as doctors and customs officials search for targets with high values of a characteristic. We propose a new method for estimating population characteristics from these types of selected samples. We develop a model that captures key features of the agent's sampling decision. We use a generalized method of moments with instrumental variables and maximum likelihood to estimate the population prevalence of the characteristic of interest and the agents' accuracy in identifying targets. We apply this method to tuberculosis (TB), which is the leading infectious disease cause of death worldwide. We use a national database of TB test data from South Africa to examine testing for multidrug resistant TB (MDR-TB). Approximately one quarter of MDR-TB cases was undiagnosed between 2004 and 2010. The official estimate of 2.5% is therefore too low, and MDR-TB prevalence is as high as 3.5%. Signal-to-noise ratios are estimated to be between 0.5 and 1. Our approach is widely applicable because of the availability of routinely collected data and abundance of potential instruments. Using routinely collected data to monitor population prevalence can guide evidence-based policy making. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Abundances of Volatile - Bearing Species from Evolved Gas Analysis of Samples from the Rocknest Aeolian Bedform in Gale Crater

Science.gov (United States)

Archer, P. D., Jr.; Franc, H. B.; Sutter, B.; McAdam, A.; Ming, D. W.; Morris, R. V.; Mahaffy, P. R.

2013-01-01

The Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instrument suite on board the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) recently ran four samples from an aeolian bedform named Rocknest. SAM detected the evolution of H2O, CO2, O2, and SO2, indicative of the presence of multiple volatile bearing species (Fig 1). The Rocknest bedform is a windblown deposit selected as representative of both the windblown material in Gale crater as well as the globally-distributed martian dust. Four samples of Rocknest material were analyzed by SAM, all from the fifth scoop taken at this location. The material delivered to SAM passed through a 150 m sieve and is assumed to have been well mixed during the sample acquisition/preparation/handoff process. SAM heated the Rocknest samples to approx.835 C at a ramp rate of 35 C/min with a He carrier gas flow rate of apprx.1.5 standard cubic centimeters per minute and at an oven pressure of 30 mbar [1]. Evolved gases were detected by a quadrupole mass spectrometer (QMS). This abstract presents the molar abundances of H2O, CO2, O2, and SO2 as well as their concentration in rocknest samples using an estimated sample mass.

Off-road sampling reveals a different grassland bird community than roadside sampling: implications for survey design and estimates to guide conservation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Troy I. Wellicome

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Grassland bird species continue to decline steeply across North America. Road-based surveys such as the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS are often used to estimate trends and population sizes and to build species distribution models for grassland birds, although roadside survey counts may introduce bias in estimates because of differences in habitats along roadsides and in off-road surveys. We tested for differences in land cover composition and in the avian community on 21 roadside-based survey routes and in an equal number of adjacent off-road walking routes in the grasslands of southern Alberta, Canada. Off-road routes (n = 225 point counts had more native grassland and short shrubs and less fallow land and road area than the roadside routes (n = 225 point counts. Consequently, 17 of the 39 bird species differed between the two route types in frequency of occurrence and relative abundance, measured using an indicator species analysis. Six species, including five obligate grassland species, were more prevalent at off-road sites; they included four species listed under the Canadian federal Species At Risk Act or listed by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada: Sprague's Pipit (Anthus spragueii, Baird's Sparrow (Ammodramus bairdii, the Chestnut-collared Longspur (Calcarius ornatus, and McCown's Longspur (Rhynchophanes mccownii. The six species were as much as four times more abundant on off-road sites. Species more prevalent along roadside routes included common species and those typical of farmland and other human-modified habitats, e.g., the European Starling (Sturnus vulgaris, the Black-billed Magpie (Pica hudsonia, and the House Sparrow (Passer domesticus. Differences in avian community composition between roadside and off-road surveys suggest that the use of BBS data when generating population estimates or distribution models may overestimate certain common species and underestimate others of conservation

Estimate of symbiotically fixed nitrogen in field grown soybeans using variations in /sup 15/N natural abundance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Amarger, N; Durr, J C; Bourguignon, C; Lagacherie, B [INRA Centre de Recherches de Dijon, 21 (France). Lab. de Microbiologie des Sols; Mariotti, A; Mariotti, F [Paris-6 Univ., 75 (France). Lab. de Geologie Dynamique

1979-07-01

The use of variations in natural abundance of /sup 15/N between nitrogen fixing and non nitrogen fixing soybeans was investigated for quantitative estimate of symbiotic nitrogen fixation. Isotopic analysis of 4 varieties of inoculated and non-inoculated soybeans growing under field conditions, with and without N-fertilizer was determined. It was found that inoculated soybeans had a significantly lower /sup 15/N content than non-inoculated ones. Estimates of the participation of fixed N to the total nitrogen content of inoculated soybeans were calculated from these differences. They were compared to estimates calculated from differences in N yield between inoculated and non-inoculated plants and to the nitrogenase activity, measured by the C/sub 2/H/sub 2/ reduction assay over the growing season. Estimates given by the /sup 15/N measurements were correlated with the C/sub 2/H/sub 2/ reducing activity but not with the differences in the N yield. This shows that the isotopic composition was dependent on the amount of fixed nitrogen and consequently that the estimates of fixed nitrogen based on natural /sup 15/N abundance should be reliable. The absence of correlation between estimates based on /sup 15/N content and estimates based on N yield was explained by differences in the uptake of soil nitrogen between inoculated and non inoculated soybeans.

Design for mosquito abundance, diversity, and phenology sampling within the National Ecological Observatory Network

Science.gov (United States)

Hoekman, D.; Springer, Yuri P.; Barker, C.M.; Barrera, R.; Blackmore, M.S.; Bradshaw, W.E.; Foley, D. H.; Ginsberg, Howard; Hayden, M. H.; Holzapfel, C. M.; Juliano, S. A.; Kramer, L. D.; LaDeau, S. L.; Livdahl, T. P.; Moore, C. G.; Nasci, R.S.; Reisen, W.K.; Savage, H. M.

2016-01-01

The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) intends to monitor mosquito populations across its broad geographical range of sites because of their prevalence in food webs, sensitivity to abiotic factors and relevance for human health. We describe the design of mosquito population sampling in the context of NEON’s long term continental scale monitoring program, emphasizing the sampling design schedule, priorities and collection methods. Freely available NEON data and associated field and laboratory samples, will increase our understanding of how mosquito abundance, demography, diversity and phenology are responding to land use and climate change.

Diel variation of larval fish abundance in the Amazon and Rio Negro

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ARAUJO-LIMA C. A. R. M.

2001-01-01

Full Text Available Many streams and large rivers present higher ichthyoplankton densities at night. However, in some rivers this does not occur and larvae are equally abundant during the day. Larval drift diel variation is an important information for planning sampling programs for evaluating larval distribution and production. The aim of this study was to test whether the abundance of larval fish was different at either period. We tested it by comparing day and night densities of characiform, clupeiform and siluriform larvae during five years in the Amazon and one year in Rio Negro. We found that larvae of three species of characiform and larvae of siluriform were equally abundant during day and night in the Amazon. Conversely, the catch of Pellona spp. larvae was significantly higher during the day. In Rio Negro, however, larval abundance was higher during the night. These results imply that day samplings estimate adequately the abundance of these characiform and siluriform larvae in the Amazon, but not Pellona larvae. Evaluations of larved densities of Rio Negro will have to consider night sampling.

Diel variation of larval fish abundance in the Amazon and Rio Negro

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. A. R. M. ARAUJO-LIMA

Full Text Available Many streams and large rivers present higher ichthyoplankton densities at night. However, in some rivers this does not occur and larvae are equally abundant during the day. Larval drift diel variation is an important information for planning sampling programs for evaluating larval distribution and production. The aim of this study was to test whether the abundance of larval fish was different at either period. We tested it by comparing day and night densities of characiform, clupeiform and siluriform larvae during five years in the Amazon and one year in Rio Negro. We found that larvae of three species of characiform and larvae of siluriform were equally abundant during day and night in the Amazon. Conversely, the catch of Pellona spp. larvae was significantly higher during the day. In Rio Negro, however, larval abundance was higher during the night. These results imply that day samplings estimate adequately the abundance of these characiform and siluriform larvae in the Amazon, but not Pellona larvae. Evaluations of larved densities of Rio Negro will have to consider night sampling.

ELM: an Algorithm to Estimate the Alpha Abundance from Low-resolution Spectra

Science.gov (United States)

Bu, Yude; Zhao, Gang; Pan, Jingchang; Bharat Kumar, Yerra

2016-01-01

We have investigated a novel methodology using the extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm to determine the α abundance of stars. Applying two methods based on the ELM algorithm—ELM+spectra and ELM+Lick indices—to the stellar spectra from the ELODIE database, we measured the α abundance with a precision better than 0.065 dex. By applying these two methods to the spectra with different signal-to-noise ratios (S/Ns) and different resolutions, we found that ELM+spectra is more robust against degraded resolution and ELM+Lick indices is more robust against variation in S/N. To further validate the performance of ELM, we applied ELM+spectra and ELM+Lick indices to SDSS spectra and estimated α abundances with a precision around 0.10 dex, which is comparable to the results given by the SEGUE Stellar Parameter Pipeline. We further applied ELM to the spectra of stars in Galactic globular clusters (M15, M13, M71) and open clusters (NGC 2420, M67, NGC 6791), and results show good agreement with previous studies (within 1σ). A comparison of the ELM with other widely used methods including support vector machine, Gaussian process regression, artificial neural networks, and linear least-squares regression shows that ELM is efficient with computational resources and more accurate than other methods.

ELM: AN ALGORITHM TO ESTIMATE THE ALPHA ABUNDANCE FROM LOW-RESOLUTION SPECTRA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bu, Yude; Zhao, Gang; Kumar, Yerra Bharat; Pan, Jingchang

2016-01-01

We have investigated a novel methodology using the extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm to determine the α abundance of stars. Applying two methods based on the ELM algorithm—ELM+spectra and ELM+Lick indices—to the stellar spectra from the ELODIE database, we measured the α abundance with a precision better than 0.065 dex. By applying these two methods to the spectra with different signal-to-noise ratios (S/Ns) and different resolutions, we found that ELM+spectra is more robust against degraded resolution and ELM+Lick indices is more robust against variation in S/N. To further validate the performance of ELM, we applied ELM+spectra and ELM+Lick indices to SDSS spectra and estimated α abundances with a precision around 0.10 dex, which is comparable to the results given by the SEGUE Stellar Parameter Pipeline. We further applied ELM to the spectra of stars in Galactic globular clusters (M15, M13, M71) and open clusters (NGC 2420, M67, NGC 6791), and results show good agreement with previous studies (within 1σ). A comparison of the ELM with other widely used methods including support vector machine, Gaussian process regression, artificial neural networks, and linear least-squares regression shows that ELM is efficient with computational resources and more accurate than other methods

ELM: AN ALGORITHM TO ESTIMATE THE ALPHA ABUNDANCE FROM LOW-RESOLUTION SPECTRA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bu, Yude [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Shandong University, Weihai, 264209, Shandong (China); Zhao, Gang; Kumar, Yerra Bharat [Key Laboratory for Optical Astronomy, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100012 (China); Pan, Jingchang, E-mail: ydbu@bao.ac.cn, E-mail: gzhao@nao.cas.cn [School of Mechanical, Electrical and Information Engineering, Shandong University, Weihai, 264209, Shandong (China)

2016-01-20

We have investigated a novel methodology using the extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm to determine the α abundance of stars. Applying two methods based on the ELM algorithm—ELM+spectra and ELM+Lick indices—to the stellar spectra from the ELODIE database, we measured the α abundance with a precision better than 0.065 dex. By applying these two methods to the spectra with different signal-to-noise ratios (S/Ns) and different resolutions, we found that ELM+spectra is more robust against degraded resolution and ELM+Lick indices is more robust against variation in S/N. To further validate the performance of ELM, we applied ELM+spectra and ELM+Lick indices to SDSS spectra and estimated α abundances with a precision around 0.10 dex, which is comparable to the results given by the SEGUE Stellar Parameter Pipeline. We further applied ELM to the spectra of stars in Galactic globular clusters (M15, M13, M71) and open clusters (NGC 2420, M67, NGC 6791), and results show good agreement with previous studies (within 1σ). A comparison of the ELM with other widely used methods including support vector machine, Gaussian process regression, artificial neural networks, and linear least-squares regression shows that ELM is efficient with computational resources and more accurate than other methods.

An abundance estimate of ling ( Molva molva ) and cod ( Gadus morhua ) in the Skagerrak and the northeastern North Sea, 1872

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Poulsen, R.T.; Cooper, A.B.; Holm, P.

2007-01-01

that long-term, historical abundance estimates are relevant to the determination of biomass reference points in fisheries management. Situated within the field of historical ecology, this paper presents findings on the abundance of ling and cod in 1872. Calculations are based on historical CPUE and catch...

Estimating the encounter rate variance in distance sampling

Science.gov (United States)

Fewster, R.M.; Buckland, S.T.; Burnham, K.P.; Borchers, D.L.; Jupp, P.E.; Laake, J.L.; Thomas, L.

2009-01-01

The dominant source of variance in line transect sampling is usually the encounter rate variance. Systematic survey designs are often used to reduce the true variability among different realizations of the design, but estimating the variance is difficult and estimators typically approximate the variance by treating the design as a simple random sample of lines. We explore the properties of different encounter rate variance estimators under random and systematic designs. We show that a design-based variance estimator improves upon the model-based estimator of Buckland et al. (2001, Introduction to Distance Sampling. Oxford: Oxford University Press, p. 79) when transects are positioned at random. However, if populations exhibit strong spatial trends, both estimators can have substantial positive bias under systematic designs. We show that poststratification is effective in reducing this bias. ?? 2008, The International Biometric Society.

In silico sampling reveals the effect of clustering and shows that the log-normal rank abundance curve is an artefact

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Neuteboom, J.H.; Struik, P.C.

2005-01-01

The impact of clustering on rank abundance, species-individual (S-N)and species-area curves was investigated using a computer programme for in silico sampling. In a rank abundance curve the abundances of species are plotted on log-scale against species sequence. In an S-N curve the number of species

Analysing designed experiments in distance sampling

Science.gov (United States)

Stephen T. Buckland; Robin E. Russell; Brett G. Dickson; Victoria A. Saab; Donal N. Gorman; William M. Block

2009-01-01

Distance sampling is a survey technique for estimating the abundance or density of wild animal populations. Detection probabilities of animals inherently differ by species, age class, habitats, or sex. By incorporating the change in an observer's ability to detect a particular class of animals as a function of distance, distance sampling leads to density estimates...

Relative contributions of sampling effort, measuring, and weighing to precision of larval sea lamprey biomass estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Slade, Jeffrey W.; Adams, Jean V.; Cuddy, Douglas W.; Neave, Fraser B.; Sullivan, W. Paul; Young, Robert J.; Fodale, Michael F.; Jones, Michael L.

2003-01-01

We developed two weight-length models from 231 populations of larval sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) collected from tributaries of the Great Lakes: Lake Ontario (21), Lake Erie (6), Lake Huron (67), Lake Michigan (76), and Lake Superior (61). Both models were mixed models, which used population as a random effect and additional environmental factors as fixed effects. We resampled weights and lengths 1,000 times from data collected in each of 14 other populations not used to develop the models, obtaining a weight and length distribution from reach resampling. To test model performance, we applied the two weight-length models to the resampled length distributions and calculated the predicted mean weights. We also calculated the observed mean weight for each resampling and for each of the original 14 data sets. When the average of predicted means was compared to means from the original data in each stream, inclusion of environmental factors did not consistently improve the performance of the weight-length model. We estimated the variance associated with measures of abundance and mean weight for each of the 14 selected populations and determined that a conservative estimate of the proportional contribution to variance associated with estimating abundance accounted for 32% to 95% of the variance (mean = 66%). Variability in the biomass estimate appears more affected by variability in estimating abundance than in converting length to weight. Hence, efforts to improve the precision of biomass estimates would be aided most by reducing the variability associated with estimating abundance.

Carbon dynamics in corn-soybean sequences as estimated from natural carbon-13 abundance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huggins, D.R.; Clapp, C.E.; Allmaras, R.R.; Lamb, J.A.; Layese, M.F.

1998-01-01

Carbon flow in terrestrial ecosystems regulates partitioning between soil organic C (SOC) and atmospheric CO2. Our objectives were to assess SOC dynamics using natural 13C abundance in corn (Zea mays L., a C4 species)-soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr., a C3 species] sequences. Fifteen treatments of continuous corn, continuous soybean, various sequences of corn and soybean, and fallow were initiated in 1981 at Lamberton, MN, on a Webster clay loam (fine-loamy, mixed, mesic Typic Haplaquoll). In 1991, soil and aboveground shoot samples from all treatments were analyzed for total organic C and delta 13C. Carbon inputs, delta 13C, and SOC were integrated into a two-pool model to evaluate C dynamics of corn and soybean. Total SOC was similar across all treatments after 10 yr; however, differences in soil delta 13C occurred between continuous corn (delta 13C = -17.2 per thous and) and continuous soybean (delta 13C = -18.2 per thousand). Modeled C dynamics showed SOC decay rates of 0.011 yr-1 for C4-derived C and 0.007 yr-1 for C3-derived C, and humification rates of 0.16 yr-1 for corn and 0.11 yr-1 for soybean. Decay and humification rates were slightly lower than those found in other Corn Belt studies. Levels of SOC were predicted to decline an additional 7 to 18% with current C inputs from either corn or soybean, respectively. Annual C additions required for SOC maintenance averaged 5.6 Mg C ha-1, 1.4 to 2.1 times greater than previously reported estimates. Controlled variation in natural 13C abundance in corn-soybean rotations during a 10-yr period adequately traced C dynamics

Cost-Effective Large-Scale Occupancy-Abundance Monitoring of Invasive Brushtail Possums (Trichosurus Vulpecula on New Zealand's Public Conservation Land.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew M Gormley

Full Text Available There is interest in large-scale and unbiased monitoring of biodiversity status and trend, but there are few published examples of such monitoring being implemented. The New Zealand Department of Conservation is implementing a monitoring program that involves sampling selected biota at the vertices of an 8-km grid superimposed over the 8.6 million hectares of public conservation land that it manages. The introduced brushtail possum (Trichosurus Vulpecula is a major threat to some biota and is one taxon that they wish to monitor and report on. A pilot study revealed that the traditional method of monitoring possums using leg-hold traps set for two nights, termed the Trap Catch Index, was a constraint on the cost and logistical feasibility of the monitoring program. A phased implementation of the monitoring program was therefore conducted to collect data for evaluating the trade-off between possum occupancy-abundance estimates and the costs of sampling for one night rather than two nights. Reducing trapping effort from two nights to one night along four trap-lines reduced the estimated costs of monitoring by 5.8% due to savings in labour, food and allowances; it had a negligible effect on estimated national possum occupancy but resulted in slightly higher and less precise estimates of relative possum abundance. Monitoring possums for one night rather than two nights would provide an annual saving of NZ$72,400, with 271 fewer field days required for sampling. Possums occupied 60% (95% credible interval; 53-68 of sampling locations on New Zealand's public conservation land, with a mean relative abundance (Trap Catch Index of 2.7% (2.0-3.5. Possum occupancy and abundance were higher in forest than in non-forest habitats. Our case study illustrates the need to evaluate relationships between sampling design, cost, and occupancy-abundance estimates when designing and implementing large-scale occupancy-abundance monitoring programs.

Sample Size Calculations for Population Size Estimation Studies Using Multiplier Methods With Respondent-Driven Sampling Surveys.

Science.gov (United States)

Fearon, Elizabeth; Chabata, Sungai T; Thompson, Jennifer A; Cowan, Frances M; Hargreaves, James R

2017-09-14

While guidance exists for obtaining population size estimates using multiplier methods with respondent-driven sampling surveys, we lack specific guidance for making sample size decisions. To guide the design of multiplier method population size estimation studies using respondent-driven sampling surveys to reduce the random error around the estimate obtained. The population size estimate is obtained by dividing the number of individuals receiving a service or the number of unique objects distributed (M) by the proportion of individuals in a representative survey who report receipt of the service or object (P). We have developed an approach to sample size calculation, interpreting methods to estimate the variance around estimates obtained using multiplier methods in conjunction with research into design effects and respondent-driven sampling. We describe an application to estimate the number of female sex workers in Harare, Zimbabwe. There is high variance in estimates. Random error around the size estimate reflects uncertainty from M and P, particularly when the estimate of P in the respondent-driven sampling survey is low. As expected, sample size requirements are higher when the design effect of the survey is assumed to be greater. We suggest a method for investigating the effects of sample size on the precision of a population size estimate obtained using multipler methods and respondent-driven sampling. Uncertainty in the size estimate is high, particularly when P is small, so balancing against other potential sources of bias, we advise researchers to consider longer service attendance reference periods and to distribute more unique objects, which is likely to result in a higher estimate of P in the respondent-driven sampling survey. ©Elizabeth Fearon, Sungai T Chabata, Jennifer A Thompson, Frances M Cowan, James R Hargreaves. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (http://publichealth.jmir.org), 14.09.2017.

Can occupancy-abundance models be used to monitor wolf abundance?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M Cecilia Latham

Full Text Available Estimating the abundance of wild carnivores is of foremost importance for conservation and management. However, given their elusive habits, direct observations of these animals are difficult to obtain, so abundance is more commonly estimated from sign surveys or radio-marked individuals. These methods can be costly and difficult, particularly in large areas with heavy forest cover. As an alternative, recent research has suggested that wolf abundance can be estimated from occupancy-abundance curves derived from "virtual" surveys of simulated wolf track networks. Although potentially more cost-effective, the utility of this approach hinges on its robustness to violations of its assumptions. We assessed the sensitivity of the occupancy-abundance approach to four assumptions: variation in wolf movement rates, changes in pack cohesion, presence of lone wolves, and size of survey units. Our simulations showed that occupancy rates and wolf pack abundances were biased high if track surveys were conducted when wolves made long compared to short movements, wolf packs were moving as multiple hunting units as opposed to a cohesive pack, and lone wolves were moving throughout the surveyed landscape. We also found that larger survey units (400 and 576 km2 were more robust to changes in these factors than smaller survey units (36 and 144 km2. However, occupancy rates derived from large survey units rapidly reached an asymptote at 100% occupancy, suggesting that these large units are inappropriate for areas with moderate to high wolf densities (>15 wolves/1,000 km2. Virtually-derived occupancy-abundance relationships can be a useful method for monitoring wolves and other elusive wildlife if applied within certain constraints, in particular biological knowledge of the surveyed species needs to be incorporated into the design of the occupancy surveys. Further, we suggest that the applicability of this method could be extended by directly incorporating some of its

Atmospheric parameters and magnesium and calcium NLTE abundances for a sample of 16 ultra metal-poor stars

Science.gov (United States)

Sitnova, Tatyana; Mashonkina, Lyudmila; Ezzeddine, Rana; Frebel, Anna

2018-06-01

The most metal-poor stars provide important observational clues to the astrophysical objects that enriched the primordial gas with heavy elements. Accurate atmospheric parameters is a prerequisite of determination of accurate abundances. We present atmospheric parameters and abundances of calcium and magnesium for a sample of 16 ultra-metal poor (UMP) stars. In spectra of UMP stars, iron is represented only by lines of Fe I, while calcium is represented with lines of Ca I and Ca II, which can be used for determination/checking of effective temperature and surface gravity. Accurate calculations of synthetic spectra of UMP stars require non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) treatment of line formation, since deviations from LTE grow with metallicity decreasing. The method of atmospheric parameter determination is based on NLTE analysis of lines of Ca I and Ca II, multi-band photometry, and isochrones. The method was tested in advance with the ultra metal-poor giant CD-38 245, where, in addition, trigonometric parallax measurements from Gaia DR1 and lines of Fe I and Fe II are available. Using photometric Teff = 4900 K and distance based log g = 2.0 for CD-38 245, we derived consistent within error bars NLTE abundances from Fe I and Fe II and Ca I and Ca II, while LTE leads to a discrepancy of 0.6 dex between Ca I and Ca II. We determined NLTE and LTE abundances of magnesium and calcium in 16 stars of the sample. For the majority of stars, as expected, [Ca/Mg] NLTE abundance ratios are close to 0, while LTE leads to systematically higher [Ca/Mg], by up to 0.3 dex, and larger spread of [Ca/Mg] for different stars. Three stars of our sample are strongly enhanced in magnesium, with [Mg/Ca] of 1.3 dex. It is worth noting that, for these three stars, we got very similar [Mg/Ca] of 1.30, 1.45, and 1.29, in contrast to the data from the literature, where, for the same stars, [Mg/Ca] vary from 0.7 to 1.4. Very similar [Mg/Ca] abundance ratios of these stars argue that

Measuring β-diversity with species abundance data.

Science.gov (United States)

Barwell, Louise J; Isaac, Nick J B; Kunin, William E

2015-07-01

In 2003, 24 presence-absence β-diversity metrics were reviewed and a number of trade-offs and redundancies identified. We present a parallel investigation into the performance of abundance-based metrics of β-diversity. β-diversity is a multi-faceted concept, central to spatial ecology. There are multiple metrics available to quantify it: the choice of metric is an important decision. We test 16 conceptual properties and two sampling properties of a β-diversity metric: metrics should be 1) independent of α-diversity and 2) cumulative along a gradient of species turnover. Similarity should be 3) probabilistic when assemblages are independently and identically distributed. Metrics should have 4) a minimum of zero and increase monotonically with the degree of 5) species turnover, 6) decoupling of species ranks and 7) evenness differences. However, complete species turnover should always generate greater values of β than extreme 8) rank shifts or 9) evenness differences. Metrics should 10) have a fixed upper limit, 11) symmetry (βA,B  = βB,A ), 12) double-zero asymmetry for double absences and double presences and 13) not decrease in a series of nested assemblages. Additionally, metrics should be independent of 14) species replication 15) the units of abundance and 16) differences in total abundance between sampling units. When samples are used to infer β-diversity, metrics should be 1) independent of sample sizes and 2) independent of unequal sample sizes. We test 29 metrics for these properties and five 'personality' properties. Thirteen metrics were outperformed or equalled across all conceptual and sampling properties. Differences in sensitivity to species' abundance lead to a performance trade-off between sample size bias and the ability to detect turnover among rare species. In general, abundance-based metrics are substantially less biased in the face of undersampling, although the presence-absence metric, βsim , performed well overall. Only �

Comparing relative abundance, lengths, and habitat of temperate reef fishes using simultaneous underwater visual census, video, and trap sampling

KAUST Repository

Bacheler, NM

2017-04-28

Unbiased counts of individuals or species are often impossible given the prevalence of cryptic or mobile species. We used 77 simultaneous multi-gear deployments to make inferences about relative abundance, diversity, length composition, and habitat of the reef fish community along the southeastern US Atlantic coast. In total, 117 taxa were observed by underwater visual census (UVC), stationary video, and chevron fish traps, with more taxa being observed by UVC (100) than video (82) or traps (20). Frequency of occurrence of focal species was similar among all sampling approaches for tomtate Haemulon aurolineatum and black sea bass Centropristis striata, higher for UVC and video compared to traps for red snapper Lutjanus campechanus, vermilion snapper Rhomboplites aurorubens, and gray triggerfish Balistes capriscus, and higher for UVC compared to video or traps for gray snapper L. griseus and lionfish Pterois spp. For 6 of 7 focal species, correlations of relative abundance among gears were strongest between UVC and video, but there was substantial variability among species. The number of recorded species between UVC and video was correlated (ρ = 0.59), but relationships between traps and the other 2 methods were weaker. Lengths of fish visually estimated by UVC were similar to lengths of fish caught in traps, as were habitat characterizations from UVC and video. No gear provided a complete census for any species in our study, suggesting that analytical methods accounting for imperfect detection are necessary to make unbiased inferences about fish abundance.

[Sampling optimization for tropical invertebrates: an example using dung beetles (Coleoptera: Scarabaeinae) in Venezuela].

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrer-Paris, José Rafael; Sánchez-Mercado, Ada; Rodríguez, Jon Paul

2013-03-01

The development of efficient sampling protocols is an essential prerequisite to evaluate and identify priority conservation areas. There are f ew protocols for fauna inventory and monitoring in wide geographical scales for the tropics, where the complexity of communities and high biodiversity levels, make the implementation of efficient protocols more difficult. We proposed here a simple strategy to optimize the capture of dung beetles, applied to sampling with baited traps and generalizable to other sampling methods. We analyzed data from eight transects sampled between 2006-2008 withthe aim to develop an uniform sampling design, that allows to confidently estimate species richness, abundance and composition at wide geographical scales. We examined four characteristics of any sampling design that affect the effectiveness of the sampling effort: the number of traps, sampling duration, type and proportion of bait, and spatial arrangement of the traps along transects. We used species accumulation curves, rank-abundance plots, indicator species analysis, and multivariate correlograms. We captured 40 337 individuals (115 species/morphospecies of 23 genera). Most species were attracted by both dung and carrion, but two thirds had greater relative abundance in traps baited with human dung. Different aspects of the sampling design influenced each diversity attribute in different ways. To obtain reliable richness estimates, the number of traps was the most important aspect. Accurate abundance estimates were obtained when the sampling period was increased, while the spatial arrangement of traps was determinant to capture the species composition pattern. An optimum sampling strategy for accurate estimates of richness, abundance and diversity should: (1) set 50-70 traps to maximize the number of species detected, (2) get samples during 48-72 hours and set trap groups along the transect to reliably estimate species abundance, (3) set traps in groups of at least 10 traps to

On efficiency of some ratio estimators in double sampling design ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this paper, three sampling ratio estimators in double sampling design were proposed with the intention of finding an alternative double sampling design estimator to the conventional ratio estimator in double sampling design discussed by Cochran (1997), Okafor (2002) , Raj (1972) and Raj and Chandhok (1999).

Multiple marker abundance profiling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hooper, Cornelia M.; Stevens, Tim J.; Saukkonen, Anna

2017-01-01

proteins and the scoring accuracy of lower-abundance proteins in Arabidopsis. NPAS was combined with subcellular protein localization data, facilitating quantitative estimations of organelle abundance during routine experimental procedures. A suite of targeted proteomics markers for subcellular compartment...

Estimation of sample size and testing power (Part 4).

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Liang-ping; Bao, Xiao-lei; Guan, Xue; Zhou, Shi-guo

2012-01-01

Sample size estimation is necessary for any experimental or survey research. An appropriate estimation of sample size based on known information and statistical knowledge is of great significance. This article introduces methods of sample size estimation of difference test for data with the design of one factor with two levels, including sample size estimation formulas and realization based on the formulas and the POWER procedure of SAS software for quantitative data and qualitative data with the design of one factor with two levels. In addition, this article presents examples for analysis, which will play a leading role for researchers to implement the repetition principle during the research design phase.

An Assay in Microtitre Plates for Absolute Abundance of Chicken Interferon Alpha Transcripts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Renata Novak Kujundžić

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Immunosuppression of commercial chickens is a serious animal health and economic problem in the poultry industry. The major causes of the immunosuppression are viruses that suppress transcription of interferon genes, especially interferon alpha. There is a need for monitoring immunosuppression in commercially bred chickens. For this purpose, the absolute abundance of interferon alpha transcripts can be measured in blood of chickens by a suitable assay. Such an assay was used to estimate abundance of chicken interferon alpha in a sample of splenic cells induced with polyinosinic polycytidylic acid. The abundance measured was 29 ± 2 attomoles/µg total RNA. This assay can be performed in microtitre plates using samples collected from chickens in poultry houses.

How many tigers Panthera tigris are there in Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary, Thailand? An estimate using photographic capture-recapture sampling

Science.gov (United States)

Simcharoen, S.; Pattanavibool, A.; Karanth, K.U.; Nichols, J.D.; Kumar, N.S.

2007-01-01

We used capture-recapture analyses to estimate the density of a tiger Panthera tigris population in the tropical forests of Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary, Thailand, from photographic capture histories of 15 distinct individuals. The closure test results (z = 0.39, P = 0.65) provided some evidence in support of the demographic closure assumption. Fit of eight plausible closed models to the data indicated more support for model Mh, which incorporates individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities. This model generated an average capture probability $\\hat p$ = 0.42 and an abundance estimate of $\\widehat{N}(\\widehat{SE}[\\widehat{N}])$ = 19 (9.65) tigers. The sampled area of $\\widehat{A}(W)(\\widehat{SE}[\\widehat{A}(W)])$ = 477.2 (58.24) km2 yielded a density estimate of $\\widehat{D}(\\widehat{SE}[\\widehat{D}])$ = 3.98 (0.51) tigers per 100 km2. Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary could therefore hold 113 tigers and the entire Western Forest Complex c. 720 tigers. Although based on field protocols that constrained us to use sub-optimal analyses, this estimated tiger density is comparable to tiger densities in Indian reserves that support moderate prey abundances. However, tiger densities in well-protected Indian reserves with high prey abundances are three times higher. If given adequate protection we believe that the Western Forest Complex of Thailand could potentially harbour >2,000 wild tigers, highlighting its importance for global tiger conservation. The monitoring approaches we recommend here would be useful for managing this tiger population.

Numerically stable algorithm for combining census and sample estimates with the multivariate composite estimator

Science.gov (United States)

R. L. Czaplewski

2009-01-01

The minimum variance multivariate composite estimator is a relatively simple sequential estimator for complex sampling designs (Czaplewski 2009). Such designs combine a probability sample of expensive field data with multiple censuses and/or samples of relatively inexpensive multi-sensor, multi-resolution remotely sensed data. Unfortunately, the multivariate composite...

Estimation of population mean under systematic sampling

Science.gov (United States)

Noor-ul-amin, Muhammad; Javaid, Amjad

2017-11-01

In this study we propose a generalized ratio estimator under non-response for systematic random sampling. We also generate a class of estimators through special cases of generalized estimator using different combinations of coefficients of correlation, kurtosis and variation. The mean square errors and mathematical conditions are also derived to prove the efficiency of proposed estimators. Numerical illustration is included using three populations to support the results.

Network Structure and Biased Variance Estimation in Respondent Driven Sampling.

Science.gov (United States)

Verdery, Ashton M; Mouw, Ted; Bauldry, Shawn; Mucha, Peter J

2015-01-01

This paper explores bias in the estimation of sampling variance in Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS). Prior methodological work on RDS has focused on its problematic assumptions and the biases and inefficiencies of its estimators of the population mean. Nonetheless, researchers have given only slight attention to the topic of estimating sampling variance in RDS, despite the importance of variance estimation for the construction of confidence intervals and hypothesis tests. In this paper, we show that the estimators of RDS sampling variance rely on a critical assumption that the network is First Order Markov (FOM) with respect to the dependent variable of interest. We demonstrate, through intuitive examples, mathematical generalizations, and computational experiments that current RDS variance estimators will always underestimate the population sampling variance of RDS in empirical networks that do not conform to the FOM assumption. Analysis of 215 observed university and school networks from Facebook and Add Health indicates that the FOM assumption is violated in every empirical network we analyze, and that these violations lead to substantially biased RDS estimators of sampling variance. We propose and test two alternative variance estimators that show some promise for reducing biases, but which also illustrate the limits of estimating sampling variance with only partial information on the underlying population social network.

Multisensor sampling of pelagic ecosystem variables in a coastal environment to estimate zooplankton grazing impact

Science.gov (United States)

Sutton, Tracey; Hopkins, Thomas; Remsen, Andrew; Burghart, Scott

2001-01-01

Sampling was conducted on the west Florida continental shelf ecosystem modeling site to estimate zooplankton grazing impact on primary production. Samples were collected with the high-resolution sampler, a towed array bearing electronic and optical sensors operating in tandem with a paired net/bottle verification system. A close biological-physical coupling was observed, with three main plankton communities: 1. a high-density inshore community dominated by larvaceans coincident with a salinity gradient; 2. a low-density offshore community dominated by small calanoid copepods coincident with the warm mixed layer; and 3. a high-density offshore community dominated by small poecilostomatoid and cyclopoid copepods and ostracods coincident with cooler, sub-pycnocline oceanic water. Both high-density communities were associated with relatively turbid water. Applying available grazing rates from the literature to our abundance data, grazing pressure mirrored the above bio-physical pattern, with the offshore sub-pycnocline community contributing ˜65% of grazing pressure despite representing only 19% of the total volume of the transect. This suggests that grazing pressure is highly localized, emphasizing the importance of high-resolution sampling to better understand plankton dynamics. A comparison of our grazing rate estimates with primary production estimates suggests that mesozooplankton do not control the fate of phytoplankton over much of the area studied (<5% grazing of daily primary production), but "hot spots" (˜25-50% grazing) do occur which may have an effect on floral composition.

THE CHEMICAL ABUNDANCES OF STARS IN THE HALO (CASH) PROJECT. II. A SAMPLE OF 14 EXTREMELY METAL-POOR STARS ,

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hollek, Julie K.; Sneden, Christopher; Shetrone, Matthew; Frebel, Anna; Roederer, Ian U.; Beers, Timothy C.; Kang, Sung-ju; Thom, Christopher

2011-01-01

We present a comprehensive abundance analysis of 20 elements for 16 new low-metallicity stars from the Chemical Abundances of Stars in the Halo (CASH) project. The abundances have been derived from both Hobby-Eberly Telescope High Resolution Spectrograph snapshot spectra (R ∼15, 000) and corresponding high-resolution (R ∼35, 000) Magellan Inamori Kyocera Echelle spectra. The stars span a metallicity range from [Fe/H] from –2.9 to –3.9, including four new stars with [Fe/H] < –3.7. We find four stars to be carbon-enhanced metal-poor (CEMP) stars, confirming the trend of increasing [C/Fe] abundance ratios with decreasing metallicity. Two of these objects can be classified as CEMP-no stars, adding to the growing number of these objects at [Fe/H]< – 3. We also find four neutron-capture-enhanced stars in the sample, one of which has [Eu/Fe] of 0.8 with clear r-process signatures. These pilot sample stars are the most metal-poor ([Fe/H] ∼< –3.0) of the brightest stars included in CASH and are used to calibrate a newly developed, automated stellar parameter and abundance determination pipeline. This code will be used for the entire ∼500 star CASH snapshot sample. We find that the pipeline results are statistically identical for snapshot spectra when compared to a traditional, manual analysis from a high-resolution spectrum.

Accounting for non-independent detection when estimating abundance of organisms with a Bayesian approach

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Julien; Royle, J. Andrew; MacKenzie, Darryl I.; Edwards, Holly H.; Kery, Marc; Gardner, Beth

2011-01-01

Summary 1. Binomial mixture models use repeated count data to estimate abundance. They are becoming increasingly popular because they provide a simple and cost-effective way to account for imperfect detection. However, these models assume that individuals are detected independently of each other. This assumption may often be violated in the field. For instance, manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) may surface in turbid water (i.e. become available for detection during aerial surveys) in a correlated manner (i.e. in groups). However, correlated behaviour, affecting the non-independence of individual detections, may also be relevant in other systems (e.g. correlated patterns of singing in birds and amphibians). 2. We extend binomial mixture models to account for correlated behaviour and therefore to account for non-independent detection of individuals. We simulated correlated behaviour using beta-binomial random variables. Our approach can be used to simultaneously estimate abundance, detection probability and a correlation parameter. 3. Fitting binomial mixture models to data that followed a beta-binomial distribution resulted in an overestimation of abundance even for moderate levels of correlation. In contrast, the beta-binomial mixture model performed considerably better in our simulation scenarios. We also present a goodness-of-fit procedure to evaluate the fit of beta-binomial mixture models. 4. We illustrate our approach by fitting both binomial and beta-binomial mixture models to aerial survey data of manatees in Florida. We found that the binomial mixture model did not fit the data, whereas there was no evidence of lack of fit for the beta-binomial mixture model. This example helps illustrate the importance of using simulations and assessing goodness-of-fit when analysing ecological data with N-mixture models. Indeed, both the simulations and the goodness-of-fit procedure highlighted the limitations of the standard binomial mixture model for aerial

Density surface fitting to estimate the abundance of humpback whales based on the NASS-95 and NASS- 2001 aerial and shipboard surveys

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charles GM Paxton

2009-09-01

The estimated humpback whale abundance for the region covered by the aerial and shipboard surveys in 1995 was 10,521 (95% CI: 3,716–24,636 using all available data and 7,625 (3,641–22,424 if survey blocks with 0 sightings around the Faroes and south of 60˚ N where no humpback whales were detected were excluded from the analysis. The estimate for the total survey region in 2001 was 14,662 (9,441–29,879. The high upper bounds of the confidence intervals were thought to be caused by a paucity of effort over wide areas of the survey leading to interpolation. Overall, the uncertainty associated with these abundance estimates was approximately equal to, or greater than, that associated with a stratified distance analysis. Given these wide CIs the evidence for a substantial difference in abundance between years was equivocal. However there was evidence to suggest that humpback whales congregated in shallower waters between 6–8˚C.

Assessment of distribution and abundance estimates for Mariana swiftlets (Aerodramus bartschi) via examination of survey methods

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Nathan C.; Haig, Susan M.; Mosher, Stephen M.

2018-01-01

We described past and present distribution and abundance data to evaluate the status of the endangered Mariana Swiftlet (Aerodramus bartschi), a little-known echolocating cave swiftlet that currently inhabits 3 of 5 formerly occupied islands in the Mariana archipelago. We then evaluated the survey methods used to attain these estimates via fieldwork carried out on an introduced population of Mariana Swiftlets on the island of O'ahu, Hawaiian Islands, to derive better methods for future surveys. We estimate the range-wide population of Mariana Swiftlets to be 5,704 individuals occurring in 15 caves on Saipan, Aguiguan, and Guam in the Marianas; and 142 individuals occupying one tunnel on O'ahu. We further confirm that swiftlets have been extirpated from Rota and Tinian and have declined on Aguiguan. Swiftlets have remained relatively stable on Guam and Saipan in recent years. Our assessment of survey methods used for Mariana Swiftlets suggests overestimates depending on the technique used. We suggest the use of night vision technology and other changes to more accurately reflect their distribution, abundance, and status.

An Improvement to Interval Estimation for Small Samples

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SUN Hui-Ling

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Because it is difficult and complex to determine the probability distribution of small samples，it is improper to use traditional probability theory to process parameter estimation for small samples. Bayes Bootstrap method is always used in the project. Although，the Bayes Bootstrap method has its own limitation，In this article an improvement is given to the Bayes Bootstrap method，This method extended the amount of samples by numerical simulation without changing the circumstances in a small sample of the original sample. And the new method can give the accurate interval estimation for the small samples. Finally，by using the Monte Carlo simulation to model simulation to the specific small sample problems. The effectiveness and practicability of the Improved-Bootstrap method was proved.

A geostatistical estimation of zinc grade in bore-core samples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Starzec, A.

1987-01-01

Possibilities and preliminary results of geostatistical interpretation of the XRF determination of zinc in bore-core samples are considered. For the spherical model of the variogram the estimation variance of grade in a disk-shape sample (estimated from the grade on the circumference sample) is calculated. Variograms of zinc grade in core samples are presented and examples of the grade estimation are discussed. 4 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab. (author)

Estimates of Abundance and Trend of Chilean Blue Whales off Isla de Chiloé, Chile.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barbara Galletti Vernazzani

Full Text Available Since 1970, blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus have been seen feeding in the waters off southern Chile during the summer and autumn (December to May. Investigation of the genetic, acoustic and morphological characteristics of these blue whales shows that they are a distinct but unnamed subspecies, called the Chilean blue whales. Photo-identification surveys have been conducted in the waters off northwestern Isla Grande de Chiloé, southern Chile from 2004-2012 and Isla Chañaral, central Chile in 2012. Over this time, 1,070 blue whales were encountered yielding, after photo-quality control, 318 and 267 unique photographs of the left and right side of the flank respectively. Using mark-recapture analysis of left and right side photographs collected from Isla Grande de Chiloé (2004-2012, open population models estimate that ~570-760 whales are feeding seasonally in this region. POPAN superpopulation abundance estimates for the same feeding ground in 2012 are 762 (95% confidence intervals, CI = 638-933 and 570 (95% CI 475-705 for left and right side datasets respectively, very similar to results from closed population models. Estimates of trend revealed strong variation in abundance, peaking in 2009 and [suggesting] fluctuating use in the survey area over time, likely related to the density of their prey. High inter-annual return rates suggest a degree of site-fidelity of individuals to Isla Grande de Chiloé and that the number of whales using this feeding ground is relatively small.

A search for stars of very low metal abundance. VI. Detailed abundances of 313 metal-poor stars

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roederer, Ian U.; Preston, George W.; Thompson, Ian B.; Shectman, Stephen A.; Burley, Gregory S.; Kelson, Daniel D.; Sneden, Christopher

2014-01-01

We present radial velocities, equivalent widths, model atmosphere parameters, and abundances or upper limits for 53 species of 48 elements derived from high resolution optical spectroscopy of 313 metal-poor stars. A majority of these stars were selected from the metal-poor candidates of the HK Survey of Beers, Preston, and Shectman. We derive detailed abundances for 61% of these stars for the first time. Spectra were obtained during a 10 yr observing campaign using the Magellan Inamori Kyocera Echelle spectrograph on the Magellan Telescopes at Las Campanas Observatory, the Robert G. Tull Coudé Spectrograph on the Harlan J. Smith Telescope at McDonald Observatory, and the High Resolution Spectrograph on the Hobby-Eberly Telescope at McDonald Observatory. We perform a standard LTE abundance analysis using MARCS model atmospheres, and we apply line-by-line statistical corrections to minimize systematic abundance differences arising when different sets of lines are available for analysis. We identify several abundance correlations with effective temperature. A comparison with previous abundance analyses reveals significant differences in stellar parameters, which we investigate in detail. Our metallicities are, on average, lower by ≈0.25 dex for red giants and ≈0.04 dex for subgiants. Our sample contains 19 stars with [Fe/H] ≤–3.5, 84 stars with [Fe/H] ≤–3.0, and 210 stars with [Fe/H] ≤–2.5. Detailed abundances are presented here or elsewhere for 91% of the 209 stars with [Fe/H] ≤–2.5 as estimated from medium resolution spectroscopy by Beers, Preston, and Shectman. We will discuss the interpretation of these abundances in subsequent papers.

Poisson sampling - The adjusted and unadjusted estimator revisited

Science.gov (United States)

Michael S. Williams; Hans T. Schreuder; Gerardo H. Terrazas

1998-01-01

The prevailing assumption, that for Poisson sampling the adjusted estimator "Y-hat a" is always substantially more efficient than the unadjusted estimator "Y-hat u" , is shown to be incorrect. Some well known theoretical results are applicable since "Y-hat a" is a ratio-of-means estimator and "Y-hat u" a simple unbiased estimator...

Estimating the relationship between abundance and distribution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rindorf, Anna; Lewy, Peter

2012-01-01

based on Euclidean distance to the centre of gravity of the spatial distribution. Only the proportion of structurally empty areas, Lloyds index, and indices of the distance to the centre of gravity of the spatial distribution are unbiased at all levels of abundance. The remaining indices generate...

READSCAN: A fast and scalable pathogen discovery program with accurate genome relative abundance estimation

KAUST Repository

Naeem, Raeece

2012-11-28

Summary: READSCAN is a highly scalable parallel program to identify non-host sequences (of potential pathogen origin) and estimate their genome relative abundance in high-throughput sequence datasets. READSCAN accurately classified human and viral sequences on a 20.1 million reads simulated dataset in <27 min using a small Beowulf compute cluster with 16 nodes (Supplementary Material). Availability: http://cbrc.kaust.edu.sa/readscan Contact: or raeece.naeem@gmail.com Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. 2012 The Author(s).

READSCAN: A fast and scalable pathogen discovery program with accurate genome relative abundance estimation

KAUST Repository

Naeem, Raeece; Rashid, Mamoon; Pain, Arnab

2012-01-01

Summary: READSCAN is a highly scalable parallel program to identify non-host sequences (of potential pathogen origin) and estimate their genome relative abundance in high-throughput sequence datasets. READSCAN accurately classified human and viral sequences on a 20.1 million reads simulated dataset in <27 min using a small Beowulf compute cluster with 16 nodes (Supplementary Material). Availability: http://cbrc.kaust.edu.sa/readscan Contact: or raeece.naeem@gmail.com Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. 2012 The Author(s).

Detecting spatial structures in throughfall data: The effect of extent, sample size, sampling design, and variogram estimation method

Science.gov (United States)

Voss, Sebastian; Zimmermann, Beate; Zimmermann, Alexander

2016-09-01

In the last decades, an increasing number of studies analyzed spatial patterns in throughfall by means of variograms. The estimation of the variogram from sample data requires an appropriate sampling scheme: most importantly, a large sample and a layout of sampling locations that often has to serve both variogram estimation and geostatistical prediction. While some recommendations on these aspects exist, they focus on Gaussian data and high ratios of the variogram range to the extent of the study area. However, many hydrological data, and throughfall data in particular, do not follow a Gaussian distribution. In this study, we examined the effect of extent, sample size, sampling design, and calculation method on variogram estimation of throughfall data. For our investigation, we first generated non-Gaussian random fields based on throughfall data with large outliers. Subsequently, we sampled the fields with three extents (plots with edge lengths of 25 m, 50 m, and 100 m), four common sampling designs (two grid-based layouts, transect and random sampling) and five sample sizes (50, 100, 150, 200, 400). We then estimated the variogram parameters by method-of-moments (non-robust and robust estimators) and residual maximum likelihood. Our key findings are threefold. First, the choice of the extent has a substantial influence on the estimation of the variogram. A comparatively small ratio of the extent to the correlation length is beneficial for variogram estimation. Second, a combination of a minimum sample size of 150, a design that ensures the sampling of small distances and variogram estimation by residual maximum likelihood offers a good compromise between accuracy and efficiency. Third, studies relying on method-of-moments based variogram estimation may have to employ at least 200 sampling points for reliable variogram estimates. These suggested sample sizes exceed the number recommended by studies dealing with Gaussian data by up to 100 %. Given that most previous

Power Spectrum Estimation of Randomly Sampled Signals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Velte, C. M.; Buchhave, P.; K. George, W.

algorithms; sample and-hold and the direct spectral estimator without residence time weighting. The computer generated signal is a Poisson process with a sample rate proportional to velocity magnitude that consist of well-defined frequency content, which makes bias easy to spot. The idea...

Efficient estimation for ergodic diffusions sampled at high frequency

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Michael

A general theory of efficient estimation for ergodic diffusions sampled at high fre- quency is presented. High frequency sampling is now possible in many applications, in particular in finance. The theory is formulated in term of approximate martingale estimating functions and covers a large class...

Raft and floating radio frequency identification (RFID) antenna systems for detecting and estimating abundance of PIT-tagged fish in rivers

Science.gov (United States)

Fetherman, Eric R.; Avila, Brian W.; Winkelman, Dana L.

2016-01-01

Portable radio frequency identification (RFID) PIT tag antenna systems are increasingly being used in studies examining aquatic animal movement, survival, and habitat use, and their design flexibility permits application in a wide variety of settings. We describe the construction, use, and performance of two portable floating RFID PIT tag antenna systems designed to detect fish that were unavailable for recapture using stationary antennas or electrofishing. A raft antenna system was designed to detect and locate PIT-tagged fish in relatively long (i.e., ≥10 km) river reaches, and consisted of two antennas: (1) a horizontal antenna (4 × 1.2 m) installed on the bottom of the raft and used to detect fish in shallower river reaches (raft antenna system, which covered 21% of the wetted area, was 0.14 ± 0.14. A shore-deployed floating antenna (14.6 × 0.6 m), which covered 100% of the wetted area, was designed for use by two operators for detecting and locating PIT-tagged fish in shorter (i.e., <2 km) river reaches. Detection distances of the shore-deployed floating antenna were between 0.7 and 0.8 m, and detection probabilities during field deployment in the St. Vrain River exceeded 0.52. The shore-deployed floating antenna was also used to estimate abundance of PIT-tagged fish. Results suggest that the shore-deployed floating antenna could be used as an alternative to estimating abundance using traditional sampling methods such as electrofishing.

Estimation of sample size and testing power (part 5).

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Liang-ping; Bao, Xiao-lei; Guan, Xue; Zhou, Shi-guo

2012-02-01

Estimation of sample size and testing power is an important component of research design. This article introduced methods for sample size and testing power estimation of difference test for quantitative and qualitative data with the single-group design, the paired design or the crossover design. To be specific, this article introduced formulas for sample size and testing power estimation of difference test for quantitative and qualitative data with the above three designs, the realization based on the formulas and the POWER procedure of SAS software and elaborated it with examples, which will benefit researchers for implementing the repetition principle.

Rare earth element abundances and distribution patterns in plant materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aidid, S.B.

1994-01-01

Eight out of the fourteen rare earth elements were estimated from the leaves of Pelthophorum pterocarpum, the leaves and roots of Impatiens balsamina, and the soils from four sampling sites by instrumental neutron activation analysis. The chondrite normalized rare earth element abundances and distribution patterns in the plant materials were found to be significantly correlated to the abundances of the rare earth elements occurring in the soils. The extent of accumulation of the rare earth elements in some plant materials was also governed by the age of the plants and the plant organs. (author) 16 refs.; 4 figs.; 3 tabs

Detecting significant changes in protein abundance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kai Kammers

2015-06-01

Full Text Available We review and demonstrate how an empirical Bayes method, shrinking a protein's sample variance towards a pooled estimate, leads to far more powerful and stable inference to detect significant changes in protein abundance compared to ordinary t-tests. Using examples from isobaric mass labelled proteomic experiments we show how to analyze data from multiple experiments simultaneously, and discuss the effects of missing data on the inference. We also present easy to use open source software for normalization of mass spectrometry data and inference based on moderated test statistics.

Comparing interval estimates for small sample ordinal CFA models.

Science.gov (United States)

Natesan, Prathiba

2015-01-01

Robust maximum likelihood (RML) and asymptotically generalized least squares (AGLS) methods have been recommended for fitting ordinal structural equation models. Studies show that some of these methods underestimate standard errors. However, these studies have not investigated the coverage and bias of interval estimates. An estimate with a reasonable standard error could still be severely biased. This can only be known by systematically investigating the interval estimates. The present study compares Bayesian, RML, and AGLS interval estimates of factor correlations in ordinal confirmatory factor analysis models (CFA) for small sample data. Six sample sizes, 3 factor correlations, and 2 factor score distributions (multivariate normal and multivariate mildly skewed) were studied. Two Bayesian prior specifications, informative and relatively less informative were studied. Undercoverage of confidence intervals and underestimation of standard errors was common in non-Bayesian methods. Underestimated standard errors may lead to inflated Type-I error rates. Non-Bayesian intervals were more positive biased than negatively biased, that is, most intervals that did not contain the true value were greater than the true value. Some non-Bayesian methods had non-converging and inadmissible solutions for small samples and non-normal data. Bayesian empirical standard error estimates for informative and relatively less informative priors were closer to the average standard errors of the estimates. The coverage of Bayesian credibility intervals was closer to what was expected with overcoverage in a few cases. Although some Bayesian credibility intervals were wider, they reflected the nature of statistical uncertainty that comes with the data (e.g., small sample). Bayesian point estimates were also more accurate than non-Bayesian estimates. The results illustrate the importance of analyzing coverage and bias of interval estimates, and how ignoring interval estimates can be misleading

Viral prevalence increases with regional colony abundance in honey bee drones (Apis mellifera L).

Science.gov (United States)

Forfert, Nadège; Natsopoulou, Myrsini E; Paxton, Robert J; Moritz, Robin F A

2016-10-01

Transmission among colonies is a central feature for the epidemiology of honey bee pathogens. High colony abundance may promote transmission among colonies independently of apiary layout, making colony abundance a potentially important parameter determining pathogen prevalence in populations of honey bees. To test this idea, we sampled male honey bees (drones) from seven distinct drone congregation areas (DCA), and used their genotypes to estimate colony abundance at each site. A multiplex ligation dependent probe amplification assay (MLPA) was used to assess the prevalence of ten viruses, using five common viral targets, in individual drones. There was a significant positive association between colony abundance and number of viral infections. This result highlights the potential importance of high colony abundance for pathogen prevalence, possibly because high population density facilitates pathogen transmission. Pathogen prevalence in drones collected from DCAs may be a useful means of estimating the disease status of a population of honey bees during the mating season, especially for localities with a large number of wild or feral colonies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improving the Network Scale-Up Estimator: Incorporating Means of Sums, Recursive Back Estimation, and Sampling Weights.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrick Habecker

Full Text Available Researchers interested in studying populations that are difficult to reach through traditional survey methods can now draw on a range of methods to access these populations. Yet many of these methods are more expensive and difficult to implement than studies using conventional sampling frames and trusted sampling methods. The network scale-up method (NSUM provides a middle ground for researchers who wish to estimate the size of a hidden population, but lack the resources to conduct a more specialized hidden population study. Through this method it is possible to generate population estimates for a wide variety of groups that are perhaps unwilling to self-identify as such (for example, users of illegal drugs or other stigmatized populations via traditional survey tools such as telephone or mail surveys--by asking a representative sample to estimate the number of people they know who are members of such a "hidden" subpopulation. The original estimator is formulated to minimize the weight a single scaling variable can exert upon the estimates. We argue that this introduces hidden and difficult to predict biases, and instead propose a series of methodological advances on the traditional scale-up estimation procedure, including a new estimator. Additionally, we formalize the incorporation of sample weights into the network scale-up estimation process, and propose a recursive process of back estimation "trimming" to identify and remove poorly performing predictors from the estimation process. To demonstrate these suggestions we use data from a network scale-up mail survey conducted in Nebraska during 2014. We find that using the new estimator and recursive trimming process provides more accurate estimates, especially when used in conjunction with sampling weights.

Estimating cetacean density and abundance in the Central and Western Mediterranean Sea through aerial surveys: Implications for management

Science.gov (United States)

Panigada, Simone; Lauriano, Giancarlo; Donovan, Greg; Pierantonio, Nino; Cañadas, Ana; Vázquez, José Antonio; Burt, Louise

2017-07-01

Systematic, effective monitoring of animal population parameters underpins successful conservation strategy and wildlife management, but it is often neglected in many regions, including much of the Mediterranean Sea. Nonetheless, a series of systematic multispecies aerial surveys was carried out in the seas around Italy to gather important baseline information on cetacean occurrence, distribution and abundance. The monitored areas included the Pelagos Sanctuary, the Tyrrhenian Sea, portions of the Seas of Corsica and Sardinia, the Ionian Seas as well as the Gulf of Taranto. Overall, approximately 48,000 km were flown in either spring, summer and winter between 2009-2014, covering an area of 444,621 km2. The most commonly observed species were the striped dolphin and the fin whale, with 975 and 83 recorded sightings, respectively. Other sighted cetacean species were the common bottlenose dolphin, the Risso's dolphin, the sperm whale, the pilot whale and the Cuvier's beaked whale. Uncorrected model- and design-based estimates of density and abundance for striped dolphins and fin whales were produced, resulting in a best estimate (model-based) of around 95,000 striped dolphins (CV=11.6%; 95% CI=92,900-120,300) occurring in the Pelagos Sanctuary, Central Tyrrhenian and Western Seas of Corsica and Sardinia combined area in summer 2010. Estimates were also obtained for each individual study region and year. An initial attempt to estimate perception bias for striped dolphins is also provided. The preferred summer 2010 uncorrected best estimate (design-based) for the same areas for fin whales was around 665 (CV=33.1%; 95% CI=350-1260). Estimates are also provided for the individual study regions and years. The results represent baseline data to develop efficient, long-term, systematic monitoring programmes, essential to evaluate trends, as required by a number of national and international frameworks, and stress the need to ensure that surveys are undertaken regularly and

Estimation of creatinine in Urine sample by Jaffe's method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wankhede, Sonal; Arunkumar, Suja; Sawant, Pramilla D.; Rao, B.B.

2012-01-01

In-vitro bioassay monitoring is based on the determination of activity concentrations in biological samples excreted from the body and is most suitable for alpha and beta emitters. A truly representative bioassay sample is the one having all the voids collected during a 24-h period however, this being technically difficult, overnight urine samples collected by the workers are analyzed. These overnight urine samples are collected for 10-16 h, however in the absence of any specific information, 12 h duration is assumed and the observed results are then corrected accordingly obtain the daily excretion rate. To reduce the uncertainty due to unknown duration of sample collection, IAEA has recommended two methods viz., measurement of specific gravity and creatinine excretion rate in urine sample. Creatinine is a final metabolic product creatinine phosphate in the body and is excreted at a steady rate for people with normally functioning kidneys. It is, therefore, often used as a normalization factor for estimation of duration of sample collection. The present study reports the chemical procedure standardized and its application for the estimation of creatinine in urine samples collected from occupational workers. Chemical procedure for estimation of creatinine in bioassay samples was standardized and applied successfully for its estimation in bioassay samples collected from the workers. The creatinine excretion rate observed for these workers is lower than observed in literature. Further, work is in progress to generate a data bank of creatinine excretion rate for most of the workers and also to study the variability in creatinine coefficient for the same individual based on the analysis of samples collected for different duration

An unbiased estimator of the variance of simple random sampling using mixed random-systematic sampling

OpenAIRE

Padilla, Alberto

2009-01-01

Systematic sampling is a commonly used technique due to its simplicity and ease of implementation. The drawback of this simplicity is that it is not possible to estimate the design variance without bias. There are several ways to circumvent this problem. One method is to suppose that the variable of interest has a random order in the population, so the sample variance of simple random sampling without replacement is used. By means of a mixed random - systematic sample, an unbiased estimator o...

Comparison of Four Estimators under sampling without Replacement

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The results were obtained using a program written in Microsoft Visual C++ programming language. It was observed that the two-stage sampling under unequal probabilities without replacement is always better than the other three estimators considered. Keywords: Unequal probability sampling, two-stage sampling, ...

Estimating the sample mean and standard deviation from the sample size, median, range and/or interquartile range.

Science.gov (United States)

Wan, Xiang; Wang, Wenqian; Liu, Jiming; Tong, Tiejun

2014-12-19

In systematic reviews and meta-analysis, researchers often pool the results of the sample mean and standard deviation from a set of similar clinical trials. A number of the trials, however, reported the study using the median, the minimum and maximum values, and/or the first and third quartiles. Hence, in order to combine results, one may have to estimate the sample mean and standard deviation for such trials. In this paper, we propose to improve the existing literature in several directions. First, we show that the sample standard deviation estimation in Hozo et al.'s method (BMC Med Res Methodol 5:13, 2005) has some serious limitations and is always less satisfactory in practice. Inspired by this, we propose a new estimation method by incorporating the sample size. Second, we systematically study the sample mean and standard deviation estimation problem under several other interesting settings where the interquartile range is also available for the trials. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed methods through simulation studies for the three frequently encountered scenarios, respectively. For the first two scenarios, our method greatly improves existing methods and provides a nearly unbiased estimate of the true sample standard deviation for normal data and a slightly biased estimate for skewed data. For the third scenario, our method still performs very well for both normal data and skewed data. Furthermore, we compare the estimators of the sample mean and standard deviation under all three scenarios and present some suggestions on which scenario is preferred in real-world applications. In this paper, we discuss different approximation methods in the estimation of the sample mean and standard deviation and propose some new estimation methods to improve the existing literature. We conclude our work with a summary table (an Excel spread sheet including all formulas) that serves as a comprehensive guidance for performing meta-analysis in different

Abundance and distribution of northern squawfish, walleyes, and smallmouth bass in John Day Reservoir, Columbia river

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beamesderfer, R.C.; Rieman, B.E.

1991-01-01

The authors used mark-recapture and catch-per-unit effort data to estimate abundances and distributions of three potential predators on juvenile salmonids migrating through John Day Reservoir in 1984-1986. The northern squawfish Ptychocheilus oregonensis was the most abundant predator (estimated population: 85, 316), followed by smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu (34,954) and walleye Stizostedion vitreum (15,168). Because of uncertainty in sampling and assumption of the mark-recapture estimator, the combined abundance of these three predators could lie between 50,000 and 500,000. They believe, however, that bias is probably negative, and that any errors should result in conservative estimates. Northern squawfish were common reservoir-wide, but large concentrations occurred immediately below McNary Dam near the head of John Day Reservoir. Walleyes were largely restricted to the upper third of the reservoir, whereas the number of smallmouth bass increased progressively downriver. As judged by abundance and distribution, northern squawfish have by far the greatest potential for predation on juvenile salmonids. They also expect predation to be unevenly distributed in time and space as a result of variations in the number and distribution of predators

Estimating fluvial wood discharge from timelapse photography with varying sampling intervals

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, N. K.

2013-12-01

There is recent focus on calculating wood budgets for streams and rivers to help inform management decisions, ecological studies and carbon/nutrient cycling models. Most work has measured in situ wood in temporary storage along stream banks or estimated wood inputs from banks. Little effort has been employed monitoring and quantifying wood in transport during high flows. This paper outlines a procedure for estimating total seasonal wood loads using non-continuous coarse interval sampling and examines differences in estimation between sampling at 1, 5, 10 and 15 minutes. Analysis is performed on wood transport for the Slave River in Northwest Territories, Canada. Relative to the 1 minute dataset, precision decreased by 23%, 46% and 60% for the 5, 10 and 15 minute datasets, respectively. Five and 10 minute sampling intervals provided unbiased equal variance estimates of 1 minute sampling, whereas 15 minute intervals were biased towards underestimation by 6%. Stratifying estimates by day and by discharge increased precision over non-stratification by 4% and 3%, respectively. Not including wood transported during ice break-up, the total minimum wood load estimated at this site is 3300 × 800$ m3 for the 2012 runoff season. The vast majority of the imprecision in total wood volumes came from variance in estimating average volume per log. Comparison of proportions and variance across sample intervals using bootstrap sampling to achieve equal n. Each trial was sampled for n=100, 10,000 times and averaged. All trials were then averaged to obtain an estimate for each sample interval. Dashed lines represent values from the one minute dataset.

Estimating time-based instantaneous total mortality rate based on the age-structured abundance index

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yingbin; Jiao, Yan

2015-05-01

The instantaneous total mortality rate ( Z) of a fish population is one of the important parameters in fisheries stock assessment. The estimation of Z is crucial to fish population dynamics analysis, abundance and catch forecast, and fisheries management. A catch curve-based method for estimating time-based Z and its change trend from catch per unit effort (CPUE) data of multiple cohorts is developed. Unlike the traditional catch-curve method, the method developed here does not need the assumption of constant Z throughout the time, but the Z values in n continuous years are assumed constant, and then the Z values in different n continuous years are estimated using the age-based CPUE data within these years. The results of the simulation analyses show that the trends of the estimated time-based Z are consistent with the trends of the true Z, and the estimated rates of change from this approach are close to the true change rates (the relative differences between the change rates of the estimated Z and the true Z are smaller than 10%). Variations of both Z and recruitment can affect the estimates of Z value and the trend of Z. The most appropriate value of n can be different given the effects of different factors. Therefore, the appropriate value of n for different fisheries should be determined through a simulation analysis as we demonstrated in this study. Further analyses suggested that selectivity and age estimation are also two factors that can affect the estimated Z values if there is error in either of them, but the estimated change rates of Z are still close to the true change rates. We also applied this approach to the Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) fishery of eastern Newfoundland and Labrador from 1983 to 1997, and obtained reasonable estimates of time-based Z.

Effects of systematic sampling on satellite estimates of deforestation rates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steininger, M K; Godoy, F; Harper, G

2009-01-01

Options for satellite monitoring of deforestation rates over large areas include the use of sampling. Sampling may reduce the cost of monitoring but is also a source of error in estimates of areas and rates. A common sampling approach is systematic sampling, in which sample units of a constant size are distributed in some regular manner, such as a grid. The proposed approach for the 2010 Forest Resources Assessment (FRA) of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is a systematic sample of 10 km wide squares at every 1 deg. intersection of latitude and longitude. We assessed the outcome of this and other systematic samples for estimating deforestation at national, sub-national and continental levels. The study is based on digital data on deforestation patterns for the five Amazonian countries outside Brazil plus the Brazilian Amazon. We tested these schemes by varying sample-unit size and frequency. We calculated two estimates of sampling error. First we calculated the standard errors, based on the size, variance and covariance of the samples, and from this calculated the 95% confidence intervals (CI). Second, we calculated the actual errors, based on the difference between the sample-based estimates and the estimates from the full-coverage maps. At the continental level, the 1 deg., 10 km scheme had a CI of 21% and an actual error of 8%. At the national level, this scheme had CIs of 126% for Ecuador and up to 67% for other countries. At this level, increasing sampling density to every 0.25 deg. produced a CI of 32% for Ecuador and CIs of up to 25% for other countries, with only Brazil having a CI of less than 10%. Actual errors were within the limits of the CIs in all but two of the 56 cases. Actual errors were half or less of the CIs in all but eight of these cases. These results indicate that the FRA 2010 should have CIs of smaller than or close to 10% at the continental level. However, systematic sampling at the national level yields large CIs unless the

Primordial helium abundance determination using sulphur as metallicity tracer

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández, Vital; Terlevich, Elena; Díaz, Angeles I.; Terlevich, Roberto; Rosales-Ortega, F. F.

2018-05-01

The primordial helium abundance YP is calculated using sulphur as metallicity tracer in the classical methodology (with YP as an extrapolation of Y to zero metals). The calculated value, YP, S = 0.244 ± 0.006, is in good agreement with the estimate from the Planck experiment, as well as, determinations in the literature using oxygen as the metallicity tracer. The chemical analysis includes the sustraction of the nebular continuum and of the stellar continuum computed from simple stellar population synthesis grids. The S+2 content is measured from the near infrared [SIII]λλ9069Å, 9532Å lines, while an ICF(S3 +) is proposed based on the Ar3 +/Ar2 + fraction. Finally, we apply a multivariable linear regression using simultaneously oxygen, nitrogen and sulphur abundances for the same sample to determine the primordial helium abundance resulting in YP - O, N, S = 0.245 ± 0.007.

Harmonizing methods for wildlife abundance estimation and pathogen detection in Europe-a questionnaire survey on three selected host-pathogen combinations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schulz, Jana; Ryser-Degiorgis, Marie-Pierre; Kuiken, Thijs

2017-01-01

Background: The need for wildlife health surveillance as part of disease control in wildlife, domestic animals and humans on the global level is widely recognized. However, the objectives, methods and intensity of existing wildlife health surveillance programs vary greatly among European countries......, resulting in a patchwork of data that are difficult to merge and compare. This survey aimed at evaluating the need and potential for data harmonization in wildlife health in Europe. The specific objective was to collect information on methods currently used to estimate host abundance and pathogen prevalence...... estimation, there is an urgent need to develop tools for the routine collection of host abundance data in a harmonized way. Wildlife health experts are encouraged to apply the harmonized APHAEA protocols in epidemiological studies in wildlife and to increase cooperation....

Optimizing Sampling Efficiency for Biomass Estimation Across NEON Domains

Science.gov (United States)

Abercrombie, H. H.; Meier, C. L.; Spencer, J. J.

2013-12-01

Over the course of 30 years, the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) will measure plant biomass and productivity across the U.S. to enable an understanding of terrestrial carbon cycle responses to ecosystem change drivers. Over the next several years, prior to operational sampling at a site, NEON will complete construction and characterization phases during which a limited amount of sampling will be done at each site to inform sampling designs, and guide standardization of data collection across all sites. Sampling biomass in 60+ sites distributed among 20 different eco-climatic domains poses major logistical and budgetary challenges. Traditional biomass sampling methods such as clip harvesting and direct measurements of Leaf Area Index (LAI) involve collecting and processing plant samples, and are time and labor intensive. Possible alternatives include using indirect sampling methods for estimating LAI such as digital hemispherical photography (DHP) or using a LI-COR 2200 Plant Canopy Analyzer. These LAI estimations can then be used as a proxy for biomass. The biomass estimates calculated can then inform the clip harvest sampling design during NEON operations, optimizing both sample size and number so that standardized uncertainty limits can be achieved with a minimum amount of sampling effort. In 2011, LAI and clip harvest data were collected from co-located sampling points at the Central Plains Experimental Range located in northern Colorado, a short grass steppe ecosystem that is the NEON Domain 10 core site. LAI was measured with a LI-COR 2200 Plant Canopy Analyzer. The layout of the sampling design included four, 300 meter transects, with clip harvests plots spaced every 50m, and LAI sub-transects spaced every 10m. LAI was measured at four points along 6m sub-transects running perpendicular to the 300m transect. Clip harvest plots were co-located 4m from corresponding LAI transects, and had dimensions of 0.1m by 2m. We conducted regression analyses

Carbon-enhanced Metal-poor Stars in SDSS/SEGUE. I. Carbon Abundance Estimation and Frequency of CEMP Stars

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Young Sun [NMSU, Las Cruces; Beers, Timothy C. [Michigan State U., JINA; Masseron, Thomas [Brussels U.; Plez, Bertrand [U. Montpellier 2, LUPM; Rockosi, Constance M. [Lick Observ.; Sobeck, Jennifer [Chicago U.; Yanny, Brian [Fermilab; Lucatello, Sara [Padua Observ.; Sivarani, Thirupathi [Bangalore, Indian Inst. Astrophys.; Placco, Vinicius M. [Sao Paulo U., IAG; Carollo, Daniela [Macquarie U.

2013-10-17

We describe a method for the determination of stellar [C/Fe] abundance ratios using low-resolution (R = 2000) stellar spectra from the SDSS and SEGUE. By means of a star-by-star comparison with a set of SDSS/SEGUE spectra with available estimates of [C/Fe] based on published high-resolution analyses, we demonstrate that we can measure [C/Fe] from SDSS/SEGUE spectra with S/N > 15 to a precision better than 0.35 dex. Using the measured carbon-to-iron abundance ratios obtained by this technique, we derive the frequency of carbon-enhanced stars ([C/Fe] > +0.7) as a function of [Fe/H], for both the SDSS/SEGUE stars and other samples from the literature. We find that the differential frequency slowly rises from almost zero to about 14% at [Fe/H] ~ -2.4, followed by a sudden increase, by about a factor of three, to 39% from [Fe/H] ~ -2.4 to [Fe/H] ~ -3.7. We also examine how the cumulative frequency of CEMP stars varies across different luminosity classes. The giant sample exhibits a cumulative CEMP frequency of 32% for [Fe/H] < -2.5, 31% for [Fe/H] < -3.0, and 33% for [Fe/H] < -3.5. For the main-sequence turnoff stars, we obtain a lower cumulative CEMP frequency, around 10% for [Fe/H] < -2.5. The dwarf population displays a large change in the cumulative frequency for CEMP stars below [Fe/H] = -2.5, jumping from 15% for [Fe/H] < -2.5 to about 75% for [Fe/H] < -3.0. When we impose a restriction with respect to distance from the Galactic mid-plane (|Z| < 5 kpc), the frequency of the CEMP giants does not increase at low metallicity ([Fe/H] < -2.5), but rather, decreases, due to the dilution of C-rich material in stars that have undergone mixing with CNO-processed material from their interiors. The frequency of CEMP stars near the main-sequence turnoff, which are not expected to have experienced mixing, increases for [Fe/H] < -3.0. [abridged

RE-EXAMINING HIGH ABUNDANCE SLOAN DIGITAL SKY SURVEY MASS-METALLICITY OUTLIERS: HIGH N/O, EVOLVED WOLF-RAYET GALAXIES?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berg, Danielle A.; Skillman, Evan D.; Marble, Andrew R.

2011-01-01

We present new MMT spectroscopic observations of four dwarf galaxies representative of a larger sample observed by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and identified by Peeples et al. as low-mass, high oxygen abundance outliers from the mass-metallicity relation. Peeples showed that these four objects (with metallicity estimates of 8.5 ≤ 12 + log(O/H) ≤ 8.8) have oxygen abundance offsets of 0.4-0.6 dex from the M B luminosity-metallicity relation. Our new observations extend the wavelength coverage to include the [O II] λλ3726, 3729 doublet, which adds leverage in oxygen abundance estimates and allows measurements of N/O ratios. All four spectra are low excitation, with relatively high N/O ratios (N/O ∼> 0.10), each of which tend to bias estimates based on strong emission lines toward high oxygen abundances. These spectra all fall in a regime where the 'standard' strong-line methods for metallicity determinations are not well calibrated either empirically or by photoionization modeling. By comparing our spectra directly to photoionization models, we estimate oxygen abundances in the range of 7.9 ≤ 12 + log (O/H) ≤ 8.4, consistent with the scatter of the mass-metallicity relation. We discuss the physical nature of these galaxies that leads to their unusual spectra (and previous classification as outliers), finding their low excitation, elevated N/O, and strong Balmer absorption are consistent with the properties expected from galaxies evolving past the 'Wolf-Rayet galaxy' phase. We compare our results to the 'main' sample of Peeples and conclude that they are outliers primarily due to enrichment of nitrogen relative to oxygen and not due to unusually high oxygen abundances for their masses or luminosities.

Fluorine Abundances in AGB Carbon Stars: New Results?

Science.gov (United States)

Abia, C.; de Laverny, P.; Recio-Blanco, A.; Domínguez, I.; Cristallo, S.; Straniero, O.

2009-09-01

A recent reanalysis of the fluorine abundance in three Galactic Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) carbon stars (TX Psc, AQ Sgr and R Scl) by Abia et al. (2009) results in estimates of fluorine abundances systematically lower by ~0.8 dex on average, with respect to the sole previous estimates by Jorissen, Smith & Lambert (1992). The new F abundances are in better agreement with the predictions of full-network stellar models of low-mass (<3 Msolar) AGB stars.

Estimation after classification using lot quality assurance sampling: corrections for curtailed sampling with application to evaluating polio vaccination campaigns.

Science.gov (United States)

Olives, Casey; Valadez, Joseph J; Pagano, Marcello

2014-03-01

To assess the bias incurred when curtailment of Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) is ignored, to present unbiased estimators, to consider the impact of cluster sampling by simulation and to apply our method to published polio immunization data from Nigeria. We present estimators of coverage when using two kinds of curtailed LQAS strategies: semicurtailed and curtailed. We study the proposed estimators with independent and clustered data using three field-tested LQAS designs for assessing polio vaccination coverage, with samples of size 60 and decision rules of 9, 21 and 33, and compare them to biased maximum likelihood estimators. Lastly, we present estimates of polio vaccination coverage from previously published data in 20 local government authorities (LGAs) from five Nigerian states. Simulations illustrate substantial bias if one ignores the curtailed sampling design. Proposed estimators show no bias. Clustering does not affect the bias of these estimators. Across simulations, standard errors show signs of inflation as clustering increases. Neither sampling strategy nor LQAS design influences estimates of polio vaccination coverage in 20 Nigerian LGAs. When coverage is low, semicurtailed LQAS strategies considerably reduces the sample size required to make a decision. Curtailed LQAS designs further reduce the sample size when coverage is high. Results presented dispel the misconception that curtailed LQAS data are unsuitable for estimation. These findings augment the utility of LQAS as a tool for monitoring vaccination efforts by demonstrating that unbiased estimation using curtailed designs is not only possible but these designs also reduce the sample size. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A spatially explicit estimate of the prewhaling abundance of the endangered North Atlantic right whale.

Science.gov (United States)

Monsarrat, Sophie; Pennino, M Grazia; Smith, Tim D; Reeves, Randall R; Meynard, Christine N; Kaplan, David M; Rodrigues, Ana S L

2016-08-01

The North Atlantic right whale (NARW) (Eubalaena glacialis) is one of the world's most threatened whales. It came close to extinction after nearly a millennium of exploitation and currently persists as a population of only approximately 500 individuals. Setting appropriate conservation targets for this species requires an understanding of its historical population size, as a baseline for measuring levels of depletion and progress toward recovery. This is made difficult by the scarcity of records over this species' long whaling history. We sought to estimate the preexploitation population size of the North Atlantic right whale and understand how this species was distributed across its range. We used a spatially explicit data set on historical catches of North Pacific right whales (NPRWs) (Eubalaena japonica) to model the relationship between right whale relative density and the environment during the summer feeding season. Assuming the 2 right whale species select similar environments, we projected this model to the North Atlantic to predict how the relative abundance of NARWs varied across their range. We calibrated these relative abundances with estimates of the NPRW total prewhaling population size to obtain high and low estimates for the overall NARW population size prior to exploitation. The model predicted 9,075-21,328 right whales in the North Atlantic. The current NARW population is thus <6% of the historical North Atlantic carrying capacity and has enormous potential for recovery. According to the model, in June-September NARWs concentrated in 2 main feeding areas: east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland and in the Norwegian Sea. These 2 areas may become important in the future as feeding grounds and may already be used more regularly by this endangered species than is thought. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

An alternative procedure for estimating the population mean in simple random sampling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Housila P. Singh

2012-03-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with the problem of estimating the finite population mean using auxiliary information in simple random sampling. Firstly we have suggested a correction to the mean squared error of the estimator proposed by Gupta and Shabbir [On improvement in estimating the population mean in simple random sampling. Jour. Appl. Statist. 35(5 (2008, pp. 559-566]. Later we have proposed a ratio type estimator and its properties are studied in simple random sampling. Numerically we have shown that the proposed class of estimators is more efficient than different known estimators including Gupta and Shabbir (2008 estimator.

Comparison of sampling techniques for Bayesian parameter estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Allison, Rupert; Dunkley, Joanna

2014-02-01

The posterior probability distribution for a set of model parameters encodes all that the data have to tell us in the context of a given model; it is the fundamental quantity for Bayesian parameter estimation. In order to infer the posterior probability distribution we have to decide how to explore parameter space. Here we compare three prescriptions for how parameter space is navigated, discussing their relative merits. We consider Metropolis-Hasting sampling, nested sampling and affine-invariant ensemble Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. We focus on their performance on toy-model Gaussian likelihoods and on a real-world cosmological data set. We outline the sampling algorithms themselves and elaborate on performance diagnostics such as convergence time, scope for parallelization, dimensional scaling, requisite tunings and suitability for non-Gaussian distributions. We find that nested sampling delivers high-fidelity estimates for posterior statistics at low computational cost, and should be adopted in favour of Metropolis-Hastings in many cases. Affine-invariant MCMC is competitive when computing clusters can be utilized for massive parallelization. Affine-invariant MCMC and existing extensions to nested sampling naturally probe multimodal and curving distributions.

Asteroseismic estimate of helium abundance of a solar analog binary system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Verma, Kuldeep; Antia, H. M. [Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Homi Bhabha Road, Mumbai 400005 (India); Faria, João P.; Monteiro, Mário J. P. F. G. [Centro de Astrofísica da Universidade do Porto, Rua das Estrelas, 4150-762 Porto (Portugal); Basu, Sarbani [Astronomy Department, Yale University, P. O. Box 208101, New Haven, CT 065208101 (United States); Mazumdar, Anwesh [Homi Bhabha Centre for Science Education, TIFR, V. N. Purav Marg, Mankhurd, Mumbai 400088 (India); Appourchaux, Thierry [Institut d' Astrophysique Spatiale, Université Paris XI-CNRS (UMR8617), Batiment 121, F-91405 Orsay Cedex (France); Chaplin, William J. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Birmingham, B15 2TT (United Kingdom); García, Rafael A. [Laboratoire AIM, CEA/DSM, CNRS, Université Paris Diderot, IRFU/SAp, Centre de Saclay, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Metcalfe, Travis S. [Stellar Astrophysics Centre, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 120, DK-8000 Aarhus C (Denmark)

2014-08-01

16 Cyg A and B are among the brightest stars observed by Kepler. What makes these stars more interesting is that they are solar analogs. 16 Cyg A and B exhibit solar-like oscillations. In this work we use oscillation frequencies obtained using 2.5 yr of Kepler data to determine the current helium abundance of these stars. For this we use the fact that the helium ionization zone leaves a signature on the oscillation frequencies and that this signature can be calibrated to determine the helium abundance of that layer. By calibrating the signature of the helium ionization zone against models of known helium abundance, the helium abundance in the envelope of 16 Cyg A is found to lie in the range of 0.231 to 0.251 and that of 16 Cyg B lies in the range of 0.218 to 0.266.

Small sample GEE estimation of regression parameters for longitudinal data.

Science.gov (United States)

Paul, Sudhir; Zhang, Xuemao

2014-09-28

Longitudinal (clustered) response data arise in many bio-statistical applications which, in general, cannot be assumed to be independent. Generalized estimating equation (GEE) is a widely used method to estimate marginal regression parameters for correlated responses. The advantage of the GEE is that the estimates of the regression parameters are asymptotically unbiased even if the correlation structure is misspecified, although their small sample properties are not known. In this paper, two bias adjusted GEE estimators of the regression parameters in longitudinal data are obtained when the number of subjects is small. One is based on a bias correction, and the other is based on a bias reduction. Simulations show that the performances of both the bias-corrected methods are similar in terms of bias, efficiency, coverage probability, average coverage length, impact of misspecification of correlation structure, and impact of cluster size on bias correction. Both these methods show superior properties over the GEE estimates for small samples. Further, analysis of data involving a small number of subjects also shows improvement in bias, MSE, standard error, and length of the confidence interval of the estimates by the two bias adjusted methods over the GEE estimates. For small to moderate sample sizes (N ≤50), either of the bias-corrected methods GEEBc and GEEBr can be used. However, the method GEEBc should be preferred over GEEBr, as the former is computationally easier. For large sample sizes, the GEE method can be used. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

MULTI-ELEMENT ABUNDANCE MEASUREMENTS FROM MEDIUM-RESOLUTION SPECTRA. II. CATALOG OF STARS IN MILKY WAY DWARF SATELLITE GALAXIES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirby, Evan N.; Cohen, Judith G.; Guhathakurta, Puragra; Rockosi, Constance M.; Simon, Joshua D.; Geha, Marla C.; Sneden, Christopher; Sohn, Sangmo Tony; Majewski, Steven R.; Siegel, Michael

2010-01-01

We present a catalog of Fe, Mg, Si, Ca, and Ti abundances for 2961 stars in eight dwarf satellite galaxies of the Milky Way (MW): Sculptor, Fornax, Leo I, Sextans, Leo II, Canes Venatici I, Ursa Minor, and Draco. For the purposes of validating our measurements, we also observed 445 red giants in MW globular clusters and 21 field red giants in the MW halo. The measurements are based on Keck/DEIMOS medium-resolution spectroscopy (MRS) combined with spectral synthesis. We estimate uncertainties in [Fe/H] by quantifying the dispersion of [Fe/H] measurements in a sample of stars in monometallic globular clusters (GCs). We estimate uncertainties in Mg, Si, Ca, and Ti abundances by comparing to high-resolution spectroscopic abundances of the same stars. For this purpose, a sample of 132 stars with published high-resolution spectroscopy in GCs, the MW halo field, and dwarf galaxies has been observed with MRS. The standard deviations of the differences in [Fe/H] and ([α/Fe]) (the average of [Mg/Fe], [Si/Fe], [Ca/Fe], and [Ti/Fe]) between the two samples is 0.15 and 0.16, respectively. This catalog represents the largest sample of multi-element abundances in dwarf galaxies to date. The next papers in this series draw conclusions on the chemical evolution, gas dynamics, and star formation histories from the catalog presented here. The wide range of dwarf galaxy luminosity reveals the dependence of dwarf galaxy chemical evolution on galaxy stellar mass.

Bayesian Simultaneous Estimation for Means in k Sample Problems

OpenAIRE

Imai, Ryo; Kubokawa, Tatsuya; Ghosh, Malay

2017-01-01

This paper is concerned with the simultaneous estimation of k population means when one suspects that the k means are nearly equal. As an alternative to the preliminary test estimator based on the test statistics for testing hypothesis of equal means, we derive Bayesian and minimax estimators which shrink individual sample means toward a pooled mean estimator given under the hypothesis. Interestingly, it is shown that both the preliminary test estimator and the Bayesian minimax shrinkage esti...

Turbidity-controlled sampling for suspended sediment load estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Jack Lewis

2003-01-01

Abstract - Automated data collection is essential to effectively measure suspended sediment loads in storm events, particularly in small basins. Continuous turbidity measurements can be used, along with discharge, in an automated system that makes real-time sampling decisions to facilitate sediment load estimation. The Turbidity Threshold Sampling method distributes...

OPTICAL SPECTROSCOPY AND NEBULAR OXYGEN ABUNDANCES OF THE SPITZER/SINGS GALAXIES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moustakas, John; Kennicutt, Robert C. Jr.; Tremonti, Christy A.; Dale, Daniel A.; Smith, John-David T.; Calzetti, Daniela

2010-01-01

We present intermediate-resolution optical spectrophotometry of 65 galaxies obtained in support of the Spitzer Infrared Nearby Galaxies Survey (SINGS). For each galaxy we obtain a nuclear, circumnuclear, and semi-integrated optical spectrum designed to coincide spatially with mid- and far-infrared spectroscopy from the Spitzer Space Telescope. We make the reduced, spectrophotometrically calibrated one-dimensional spectra, as well as measurements of the fluxes and equivalent widths of the strong nebular emission lines, publicly available. We use optical emission-line ratios measured on all three spatial scales to classify the sample into star-forming, active galactic nuclei (AGNs), and galaxies with a mixture of star formation and nuclear activity. We find that the relative fraction of the sample classified as star forming versus AGN is a strong function of the integrated light enclosed by the spectroscopic aperture. We supplement our observations with a large database of nebular emission-line measurements of individual H II regions in the SINGS galaxies culled from the literature. We use these ancillary data to conduct a detailed analysis of the radial abundance gradients and average H II-region abundances of a large fraction of the sample. We combine these results with our new integrated spectra to estimate the central and characteristic (globally averaged) gas-phase oxygen abundances of all 75 SINGS galaxies. We conclude with an in-depth discussion of the absolute uncertainty in the nebular oxygen abundance scale.

Estimating mean change in population salt intake using spot urine samples.

Science.gov (United States)

Petersen, Kristina S; Wu, Jason H Y; Webster, Jacqui; Grimes, Carley; Woodward, Mark; Nowson, Caryl A; Neal, Bruce

2017-10-01

Spot urine samples are easier to collect than 24-h urine samples and have been used with estimating equations to derive the mean daily salt intake of a population. Whether equations using data from spot urine samples can also be used to estimate change in mean daily population salt intake over time is unknown. We compared estimates of change in mean daily population salt intake based upon 24-h urine collections with estimates derived using equations based on spot urine samples. Paired and unpaired 24-h urine samples and spot urine samples were collected from individuals in two Australian populations, in 2011 and 2014. Estimates of change in daily mean population salt intake between 2011 and 2014 were obtained directly from the 24-h urine samples and by applying established estimating equations (Kawasaki, Tanaka, Mage, Toft, INTERSALT) to the data from spot urine samples. Differences between 2011 and 2014 were calculated using mixed models. A total of 1000 participants provided a 24-h urine sample and a spot urine sample in 2011, and 1012 did so in 2014 (paired samples n = 870; unpaired samples n = 1142). The participants were community-dwelling individuals living in the State of Victoria or the town of Lithgow in the State of New South Wales, Australia, with a mean age of 55 years in 2011. The mean (95% confidence interval) difference in population salt intake between 2011 and 2014 determined from the 24-h urine samples was -0.48g/day (-0.74 to -0.21; P spot urine samples was -0.24 g/day (-0.42 to -0.06; P = 0.01) using the Tanaka equation, -0.42 g/day (-0.70 to -0.13; p = 0.004) using the Kawasaki equation, -0.51 g/day (-1.00 to -0.01; P = 0.046) using the Mage equation, -0.26 g/day (-0.42 to -0.10; P = 0.001) using the Toft equation, -0.20 g/day (-0.32 to -0.09; P = 0.001) using the INTERSALT equation and -0.27 g/day (-0.39 to -0.15; P  0.058). Separate analysis of the unpaired and paired data showed that detection of

Targeted reduction of highly abundant transcripts using pseudo-random primers.

Science.gov (United States)

Arnaud, Ophélie; Kato, Sachi; Poulain, Stéphane; Plessy, Charles

2016-04-01

Transcriptome studies based on quantitative sequencing can estimate levels of gene expression by measuring target RNA abundance in sequencing libraries. Sequencing costs are proportional to the total number of sequenced reads, and in order to cover rare RNAs, considerable quantities of abundant and identical reads are needed. This major limitation can be addressed by depleting a proportion of the most abundant sequences from the library. However, such depletion strategies involve either extra handling of the input RNA sample or use of a large number of reverse transcription primers, termed not-so-random (NSR) primers, which are costly to synthesize. Taking advantage of the high tolerance of reverse transcriptase to mis-prime, we found that it is possible to use as few as 40 pseudo-random (PS) reverse transcription primers to decrease the rate of undesirable abundant sequences within a library without affecting the overall transcriptome diversity. PS primers are simple to design and can be used to deplete several undesirable RNAs simultaneously, thus creating a flexible tool for enriching transcriptome libraries for rare transcript sequences.

Diversity, composition and abundance of macroinvertebrates ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

user

these genera were found at all sampling stations as shown in Table 2. Out of the orders sampled, Hemiptera, Pulmonata and. Coleoptera had the highest number of genera with 5, 4 and 4, respectively. In terms of relative abundance, dipterans and Pulmonata were the most abundant while. Hydracarina (water mites) were ...

Estimating waste disposal quantities from raw waste samples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Negin, C.A.; Urland, C.S.; Hitz, C.G.; GPU Nuclear Corp., Middletown, PA)

1985-01-01

Estimating the disposal quantity of waste resulting from stabilization of radioactive sludge is complex because of the many factors relating to sample analysis results, radioactive decay, allowable disposal concentrations, and options for disposal containers. To facilitate this estimation, a microcomputer spread sheet template was created. The spread sheet has saved considerable engineering hours. 1 fig., 3 tabs

Iterative importance sampling algorithms for parameter estimation

OpenAIRE

Morzfeld, Matthias; Day, Marcus S.; Grout, Ray W.; Pau, George Shu Heng; Finsterle, Stefan A.; Bell, John B.

2016-01-01

In parameter estimation problems one computes a posterior distribution over uncertain parameters defined jointly by a prior distribution, a model, and noisy data. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is often used for the numerical solution of such problems. An alternative to MCMC is importance sampling, which can exhibit near perfect scaling with the number of cores on high performance computing systems because samples are drawn independently. However, finding a suitable proposal distribution is ...

Systematic sampling of discrete and continuous populations: sample selection and the choice of estimator

Science.gov (United States)

Harry T. Valentine; David L. R. Affleck; Timothy G. Gregoire

2009-01-01

Systematic sampling is easy, efficient, and widely used, though it is not generally recognized that a systematic sample may be drawn from the population of interest with or without restrictions on randomization. The restrictions or the lack of them determine which estimators are unbiased, when using the sampling design as the basis for inference. We describe the...

Understanding and reducing statistical uncertainties in nebular abundance determinations

Science.gov (United States)

Wesson, R.; Stock, D. J.; Scicluna, P.

2012-06-01

Whenever observations are compared to theories, an estimate of the uncertainties associated with the observations is vital if the comparison is to be meaningful. However, many or even most determinations of temperatures, densities and abundances in photoionized nebulae do not quote the associated uncertainty. Those that do typically propagate the uncertainties using analytical techniques which rely on assumptions that generally do not hold. Motivated by this issue, we have developed Nebular Empirical Analysis Tool (NEAT), a new code for calculating chemical abundances in photoionized nebulae. The code carries out a standard analysis of lists of emission lines using long-established techniques to estimate the amount of interstellar extinction, calculate representative temperatures and densities, compute ionic abundances from both collisionally excited lines and recombination lines, and finally to estimate total elemental abundances using an ionization correction scheme. NEATuses a Monte Carlo technique to robustly propagate uncertainties from line flux measurements through to the derived abundances. We show that, for typical observational data, this approach is superior to analytic estimates of uncertainties. NEAT also accounts for the effect of upward biasing on measurements of lines with low signal-to-noise ratio, allowing us to accurately quantify the effect of this bias on abundance determinations. We find not only that the effect can result in significant overestimates of heavy element abundances derived from weak lines, but also that taking it into account reduces the uncertainty of these abundance determinations. Finally, we investigate the effect of possible uncertainties in R, the ratio of selective-to-total extinction, on abundance determinations. We find that the uncertainty due to this parameter is negligible compared to the statistical uncertainties due to typical line flux measurement uncertainties.

Abundance Analysis of 17 Planetary Nebulae from High-Resolution Optical Spectroscopy

Science.gov (United States)

Sherrard, Cameroun G.; Sterling, Nicholas C.; Dinerstein, Harriet L.; Madonna, Simone; Mashburn, Amanda

2017-06-01

We present an abundance analysis of 17 planetary nebulae (PNe) observed with the 2D-coudé echelle spectrograph on the 2.7-m Harlan J. Smith telescope at McDonald Observatory. The spectra cover the wavelength range 3600--10,400 Å at a resolution R = 36,700, and are the first high-resolution optical spectra for many objects in our sample. The number of emission lines detected in individual nebulae range from ~125 to over 600. We derive temperatures, densities, and abundances from collisionally-excited lines using the PyNeb package (Luridiana et al. 2015, A&A, 573, A42) and the ionization correction factor scheme of Delgado-Inglada et al. (2014, MNRAS, 440, 536). The abundances of light elements agree with previous estimates for most of the PNe. Several objects exhibit emission lines of refractory elements such as K and Fe, and neutron-capture elements that can be enriched by the s-process. We find that K and Fe are depleted relative to solar by ~0.3--0.7~dex and 1-2 dex, respectively, and find evidence for s-process enrichments in 10 objects. Several objects in our sample exhibit C, N, and O recombination lines that are useful for abundance determinations. These transitions are used to compute abundance discrepancy factors (ADFs), the ratio of ionic abundances derived from permitted lines to those from collisionally-excited transitions. We explore relations among depletion factors, ADFs, s-process enrichment factors, and other nebular stellar and nebular properties. We acknowledge support from NSF awards AST-901432 and AST-0708429.

Upscaling species richness and abundances in tropical forests.

Science.gov (United States)

Tovo, Anna; Suweis, Samir; Formentin, Marco; Favretti, Marco; Volkov, Igor; Banavar, Jayanth R; Azaele, Sandro; Maritan, Amos

2017-10-01

The quantification of tropical tree biodiversity worldwide remains an open and challenging problem. More than two-fifths of the number of worldwide trees can be found either in tropical or in subtropical forests, but only ≈0.000067% of species identities are known. We introduce an analytical framework that provides robust and accurate estimates of species richness and abundances in biodiversity-rich ecosystems, as confirmed by tests performed on both in silico-generated and real forests. Our analysis shows that the approach outperforms other methods. In particular, we find that upscaling methods based on the log-series species distribution systematically overestimate the number of species and abundances of the rare species. We finally apply our new framework on 15 empirical tropical forest plots and quantify the minimum percentage cover that should be sampled to achieve a given average confidence interval in the upscaled estimate of biodiversity. Our theoretical framework confirms that the forests studied are comprised of a large number of rare or hyper-rare species. This is a signature of critical-like behavior of species-rich ecosystems and can provide a buffer against extinction.

Sampling strategies for estimating brook trout effective population size

Science.gov (United States)

Andrew R. Whiteley; Jason A. Coombs; Mark Hudy; Zachary Robinson; Keith H. Nislow; Benjamin H. Letcher

2012-01-01

The influence of sampling strategy on estimates of effective population size (Ne) from single-sample genetic methods has not been rigorously examined, though these methods are increasingly used. For headwater salmonids, spatially close kin association among age-0 individuals suggests that sampling strategy (number of individuals and location from...

Technical Report: Algorithm and Implementation for Quasispecies Abundance Inference with Confidence Intervals from Metagenomic Sequence Data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McLoughlin, Kevin [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2016-01-11

This report describes the design and implementation of an algorithm for estimating relative microbial abundances, together with confidence limits, using data from metagenomic DNA sequencing. For the background behind this project and a detailed discussion of our modeling approach for metagenomic data, we refer the reader to our earlier technical report, dated March 4, 2014. Briefly, we described a fully Bayesian generative model for paired-end sequence read data, incorporating the effects of the relative abundances, the distribution of sequence fragment lengths, fragment position bias, sequencing errors and variations between the sampled genomes and the nearest reference genomes. A distinctive feature of our modeling approach is the use of a Chinese restaurant process (CRP) to describe the selection of genomes to be sampled, and thus the relative abundances. The CRP component is desirable for fitting abundances to reads that may map ambiguously to multiple targets, because it naturally leads to sparse solutions that select the best representative from each set of nearly equivalent genomes.

Estimation and correction of visibility bias in aerial surveys of wintering ducks

Science.gov (United States)

Pearse, A.T.; Gerard, P.D.; Dinsmore, S.J.; Kaminski, R.M.; Reinecke, K.J.

2008-01-01

Incomplete detection of all individuals leading to negative bias in abundance estimates is a pervasive source of error in aerial surveys of wildlife, and correcting that bias is a critical step in improving surveys. We conducted experiments using duck decoys as surrogates for live ducks to estimate bias associated with surveys of wintering ducks in Mississippi, USA. We found detection of decoy groups was related to wetland cover type (open vs. forested), group size (1?100 decoys), and interaction of these variables. Observers who detected decoy groups reported counts that averaged 78% of the decoys actually present, and this counting bias was not influenced by either covariate cited above. We integrated this sightability model into estimation procedures for our sample surveys with weight adjustments derived from probabilities of group detection (estimated by logistic regression) and count bias. To estimate variances of abundance estimates, we used bootstrap resampling of transects included in aerial surveys and data from the bias-correction experiment. When we implemented bias correction procedures on data from a field survey conducted in January 2004, we found bias-corrected estimates of abundance increased 36?42%, and associated standard errors increased 38?55%, depending on species or group estimated. We deemed our method successful for integrating correction of visibility bias in an existing sample survey design for wintering ducks in Mississippi, and we believe this procedure could be implemented in a variety of sampling problems for other locations and species.

Financial development and oil resource abundance-growth relations: evidence from panel data.

Science.gov (United States)

Law, Siong Hook; Moradbeigi, Maryam

2017-10-01

This study investigates whether financial development dampens the negative impact of oil resource abundance on economic growth. Because of substantial cross-sectional dependence in our data, which contain a core sample of 63 oil-producing countries from 1980 through 2010, we use the common correlated effect mean group (CCEMG) estimator to account for the high degree of heterogeneity and drop the outlier countries. The empirical results reveal that oil resource abundance affects the growth rate in output contingent on the degree of development in financial markets. More developed financial markets can channel the revenues from oil into more productive activities and thus offset the negative effects of oil resource abundance on economic growth. Thus, better financial development can reverse resource curse or enhance resource blessing in oil-rich economies.

Uranium abundance in some sudanese phosphate ores

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adam, A.A.; Eltayeb, M.A.H.

2009-01-01

This work was carried out mainly to analysis of some Sudanese phosphate ores, for their uranium abundance and total phosphorus content measured as P 2 O 5 %. For this purpose, 30 samples of two types of phosphate ore from Eastern Nuba Mountains, in Sudan namely, Kurun and Uro areas were examined. In addition, the relationship between uranium and major, and trace elements were obtained, also, the natural radioactivity of the phosphate samples was measured, in order to characterize and differentiate between the two types of phosphate ores. The uranium abundance in Uro phosphate with 20.3% P 2 O 5 is five time higher than in Kurun phosphate with 26.7% P 2 O 5 . The average of uranium content was found to be 56.6 and 310 mg/kg for Kurun and Uro phosphate ore, respectively. The main elements in Kurun and Uro phosphate ore are silicon, aluminum, and phosphorus, while the most abundant trace elements in these two ores are titanium, strontium and barium. Pearson correlation coefficient revealed that uranium in Kurun phosphate shows strong positive correlation with P 2 O 5 , and its distribution is essentially controlled by the variations of P2O5 concentration, whereas uranium in Uro phosphate shows strong positive correlation with strontium, and its distribution is controlled by the variations of Sr concentration. Uranium behaves in different ways in Kurun phosphate and in Uro phosphate. Uro phosphate shows higher concentrations of all the estimated radionuclides than Kurun phosphate. According to the obtained results, it can be concluded that Uro phosphate is consider as secondary uranium source, and is more suitable for uranium recovery, because it has high uranium abundance and low P 2 O 5 %, than Kurun phosphate. (authors) [es

Estimation of AUC or Partial AUC under Test-Result-Dependent Sampling.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xiaofei; Ma, Junling; George, Stephen; Zhou, Haibo

2012-01-01

The area under the ROC curve (AUC) and partial area under the ROC curve (pAUC) are summary measures used to assess the accuracy of a biomarker in discriminating true disease status. The standard sampling approach used in biomarker validation studies is often inefficient and costly, especially when ascertaining the true disease status is costly and invasive. To improve efficiency and reduce the cost of biomarker validation studies, we consider a test-result-dependent sampling (TDS) scheme, in which subject selection for determining the disease state is dependent on the result of a biomarker assay. We first estimate the test-result distribution using data arising from the TDS design. With the estimated empirical test-result distribution, we propose consistent nonparametric estimators for AUC and pAUC and establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators. Simulation studies show that the proposed estimators have good finite sample properties and that the TDS design yields more efficient AUC and pAUC estimates than a simple random sampling (SRS) design. A data example based on an ongoing cancer clinical trial is provided to illustrate the TDS design and the proposed estimators. This work can find broad applications in design and analysis of biomarker validation studies.

Creel survey sampling designs for estimating effort in short-duration Chinook salmon fisheries

Science.gov (United States)

McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael C.; Schill, Daniel J.

2013-01-01

Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha sport fisheries in the Columbia River basin are commonly monitored using roving creel survey designs and require precise, unbiased catch estimates. The objective of this study was to examine the relative bias and precision of total catch estimates using various sampling designs to estimate angling effort under the assumption that mean catch rate was known. We obtained information on angling populations based on direct visual observations of portions of Chinook Salmon fisheries in three Idaho river systems over a 23-d period. Based on the angling population, Monte Carlo simulations were used to evaluate the properties of effort and catch estimates for each sampling design. All sampling designs evaluated were relatively unbiased. Systematic random sampling (SYS) resulted in the most precise estimates. The SYS and simple random sampling designs had mean square error (MSE) estimates that were generally half of those observed with cluster sampling designs. The SYS design was more efficient (i.e., higher accuracy per unit cost) than a two-cluster design. Increasing the number of clusters available for sampling within a day decreased the MSE of estimates of daily angling effort, but the MSE of total catch estimates was variable depending on the fishery. The results of our simulations provide guidelines on the relative influence of sample sizes and sampling designs on parameters of interest in short-duration Chinook Salmon fisheries.

Faint planetary nebulae in the Magellanic Clouds - central star properties and nebular abundances for the Jacoby sample

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henry, R.B.C.; Liebert, J.; Boroson, T.A.

1989-01-01

Forty-four of the LMC and SMC planetary nebulae contained in Jacoby's (1980) sample are studied. Spectrophotometric observations were used to infer the Stoy temperatures, luminosities, and radii of the central stars. For objects in which forbidden O III electron temperatures could be determined, the nebular abundances of He, N, O, and Ne were calculated and compared with values for giant H II regions for the relevant host galaxy. When the present abundance results were compared with previously published results for planetary nebulae in the LMC, SMC, and the Galaxy, a strong correlation was found for O/H versus Ne/H and strong anticorrelations were found for O/H versus forbidden O III temperature, and N/O versus O/H. 69 refs

Estimating HIES Data through Ratio and Regression Methods for Different Sampling Designs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Faqir Muhammad

2007-01-01

Full Text Available In this study, comparison has been made for different sampling designs, using the HIES data of North West Frontier Province (NWFP for 2001-02 and 1998-99 collected from the Federal Bureau of Statistics, Statistical Division, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad. The performance of the estimators has also been considered using bootstrap and Jacknife. A two-stage stratified random sample design is adopted by HIES. In the first stage, enumeration blocks and villages are treated as the first stage Primary Sampling Units (PSU. The sample PSU’s are selected with probability proportional to size. Secondary Sampling Units (SSU i.e., households are selected by systematic sampling with a random start. They have used a single study variable. We have compared the HIES technique with some other designs, which are: Stratified Simple Random Sampling. Stratified Systematic Sampling. Stratified Ranked Set Sampling. Stratified Two Phase Sampling. Ratio and Regression methods were applied with two study variables, which are: Income (y and Household sizes (x. Jacknife and Bootstrap are used for variance replication. Simple Random Sampling with sample size (462 to 561 gave moderate variances both by Jacknife and Bootstrap. By applying Systematic Sampling, we received moderate variance with sample size (467. In Jacknife with Systematic Sampling, we obtained variance of regression estimator greater than that of ratio estimator for a sample size (467 to 631. At a sample size (952 variance of ratio estimator gets greater than that of regression estimator. The most efficient design comes out to be Ranked set sampling compared with other designs. The Ranked set sampling with jackknife and bootstrap, gives minimum variance even with the smallest sample size (467. Two Phase sampling gave poor performance. Multi-stage sampling applied by HIES gave large variances especially if used with a single study variable.

Estimating population salt intake in India using spot urine samples.

Science.gov (United States)

Petersen, Kristina S; Johnson, Claire; Mohan, Sailesh; Rogers, Kris; Shivashankar, Roopa; Thout, Sudhir Raj; Gupta, Priti; He, Feng J; MacGregor, Graham A; Webster, Jacqui; Santos, Joseph Alvin; Krishnan, Anand; Maulik, Pallab K; Reddy, K Srinath; Gupta, Ruby; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Neal, Bruce

2017-11-01

To compare estimates of mean population salt intake in North and South India derived from spot urine samples versus 24-h urine collections. In a cross-sectional survey, participants were sampled from slum, urban and rural communities in North and in South India. Participants provided 24-h urine collections, and random morning spot urine samples. Salt intake was estimated from the spot urine samples using a series of established estimating equations. Salt intake data from the 24-h urine collections and spot urine equations were weighted to provide estimates of salt intake for Delhi and Haryana, and Andhra Pradesh. A total of 957 individuals provided a complete 24-h urine collection and a spot urine sample. Weighted mean salt intake based on the 24-h urine collection, was 8.59 (95% confidence interval 7.73-9.45) and 9.46 g/day (8.95-9.96) in Delhi and Haryana, and Andhra Pradesh, respectively. Corresponding estimates based on the Tanaka equation [9.04 (8.63-9.45) and 9.79 g/day (9.62-9.96) for Delhi and Haryana, and Andhra Pradesh, respectively], the Mage equation [8.80 (7.67-9.94) and 10.19 g/day (95% CI 9.59-10.79)], the INTERSALT equation [7.99 (7.61-8.37) and 8.64 g/day (8.04-9.23)] and the INTERSALT equation with potassium [8.13 (7.74-8.52) and 8.81 g/day (8.16-9.46)] were all within 1 g/day of the estimate based upon 24-h collections. For the Toft equation, estimates were 1-2 g/day higher [9.94 (9.24-10.64) and 10.69 g/day (9.44-11.93)] and for the Kawasaki equation they were 3-4 g/day higher [12.14 (11.30-12.97) and 13.64 g/day (13.15-14.12)]. In urban and rural areas in North and South India, most spot urine-based equations provided reasonable estimates of mean population salt intake. Equations that did not provide good estimates may have failed because specimen collection was not aligned with the original method.

Networked Estimation for Event-Based Sampling Systems with Packet Dropouts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Young Soo Suh

2009-04-01

Full Text Available This paper is concerned with a networked estimation problem in which sensor data are transmitted over the network. In the event-based sampling scheme known as level-crossing or send-on-delta (SOD, sensor data are transmitted to the estimator node if the difference between the current sensor value and the last transmitted one is greater than a given threshold. Event-based sampling has been shown to be more efficient than the time-triggered one in some situations, especially in network bandwidth improvement. However, it cannot detect packet dropout situations because data transmission and reception do not use a periodical time-stamp mechanism as found in time-triggered sampling systems. Motivated by this issue, we propose a modified event-based sampling scheme called modified SOD in which sensor data are sent when either the change of sensor output exceeds a given threshold or the time elapses more than a given interval. Through simulation results, we show that the proposed modified SOD sampling significantly improves estimation performance when packet dropouts happen.

Determining the Diversity and Species Abundance Patterns in Arctic Soils using Rational Methods for Exploring Microbial Diversity

Science.gov (United States)

Ovreas, L.; Quince, C.; Sloan, W.; Lanzen, A.; Davenport, R.; Green, J.; Coulson, S.; Curtis, T.

2012-12-01

Arctic microbial soil communities are intrinsically interesting and poorly characterised. We have inferred the diversity and species abundance distribution of 6 Arctic soils: new and mature soil at the foot of a receding glacier, Arctic Semi Desert, the foot of bird cliffs and soil underlying Arctic Tundra Heath: all near Ny-Ålesund, Spitsbergen. Diversity, distribution and sample sizes were estimated using the rational method of Quince et al., (Isme Journal 2 2008:997-1006) to determine the most plausible underlying species abundance distribution. A log-normal species abundance curve was found to give a slightly better fit than an inverse Gaussian curve if, and only if, sequencing error was removed. The median estimates of diversity of operational taxonomic units (at the 3% level) were 3600-5600 (lognormal assumed) and 2825-4100 (inverse Gaussian assumed). The nature and origins of species abundance distributions are poorly understood but may yet be grasped by observing and analysing such distributions in the microbial world. The sample size required to observe the distribution (by sequencing 90% of the taxa) varied between ~ 106 and ~105 for the lognormal and inverse Gaussian respectively. We infer that between 5 and 50 GB of sequencing would be required to capture 90% or the metagenome. Though a principle components analysis clearly divided the sites into three groups there was a high (20-45%) degree of overlap in between locations irrespective of geographical proximity. Interestingly, the nearest relatives of the most abundant taxa at a number of most sites were of alpine or polar origin. Samples plotted on first two principal components together with arbitrary discriminatory OTUs

Validation of abundance estimates from mark-recapture and removal techniques for rainbow trout captured by electrofishing in small streams

Science.gov (United States)

Amanda E. Rosenberger; Jason B. Dunham

2005-01-01

Estimation of fish abundance in streams using the removal model or the Lincoln–Peterson mark–recapture model is a common practice in fisheries. These models produce misleading results if their assumptions are violated. We evaluated the assumptions of these two models via electrofishing of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss in central Idaho streams....

Accounting for subgroup structure in line-transect abundance estimates of false killer whales (Pseudorca crassidens in Hawaiian waters.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amanda L Bradford

Full Text Available For biological populations that form aggregations (or clusters of individuals, cluster size is an important parameter in line-transect abundance estimation and should be accurately measured. Cluster size in cetaceans has traditionally been represented as the total number of individuals in a group, but group size may be underestimated if group members are spatially diffuse. Groups of false killer whales (Pseudorca crassidens can comprise numerous subgroups that are dispersed over tens of kilometers, leading to a spatial mismatch between a detected group and the theoretical framework of line-transect analysis. Three stocks of false killer whales are found within the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone of the Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiian EEZ: an insular main Hawaiian Islands stock, a pelagic stock, and a Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI stock. A ship-based line-transect survey of the Hawaiian EEZ was conducted in the summer and fall of 2010, resulting in six systematic-effort visual sightings of pelagic (n = 5 and NWHI (n = 1 false killer whale groups. The maximum number and spatial extent of subgroups per sighting was 18 subgroups and 35 km, respectively. These sightings were combined with data from similar previous surveys and analyzed within the conventional line-transect estimation framework. The detection function, mean cluster size, and encounter rate were estimated separately to appropriately incorporate data collected using different methods. Unlike previous line-transect analyses of cetaceans, subgroups were treated as the analytical cluster instead of groups because subgroups better conform to the specifications of line-transect theory. Bootstrap values (n = 5,000 of the line-transect parameters were randomly combined to estimate the variance of stock-specific abundance estimates. Hawai'i pelagic and NWHI false killer whales were estimated to number 1,552 (CV = 0.66; 95% CI = 479-5,030 and 552 (CV = 1.09; 95% CI = 97

DIRECT OXYGEN ABUNDANCES FOR LOW-LUMINOSITY LVL GALAXIES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Berg, Danielle A.; Skillman, Evan D. [Institute for Astrophysics, University of Minnesota, 116 Church St. SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455 (United States); Marble, Andrew R.; Engelbracht, Charles W. [Steward Observatory, University of Arizona, 933 N Cherry Ave., Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States); Van Zee, Liese [Astronomy Department, Indiana University, 727 East 3rd Street, Bloomington, IN 47405 (United States); Lee, Janice C. [STScI, 3700 San Martin Drive, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Kennicutt, Robert C. Jr. [Institute of Astronomy, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0HA (United Kingdom); Calzetti, Daniela [Department of Astronomy, University of Massachusetts, 710 North Pleasant Street, Amherst, MA 01003 (United States); Dale, Daniel A. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Wyoming, 1000 E. University, Laramie, WY 82071 (United States); Johnson, Benjamin D., E-mail: berg@astro.umn.edu, E-mail: skillman@astro.umn.edu, E-mail: cengelbracht@as.arizona.edu, E-mail: amarble@nso.edu, E-mail: vanzee@astro.indiana.edu, E-mail: jlee@stsci.edu, E-mail: calzetti@astro.umass.edu, E-mail: ddale@uwyo.edu, E-mail: johnson@iap.fr [Institut d' Astrophysique de Paris, UMR 7095, 98 bis Bvd Arago, 75014 Paris (France)

2012-08-01

We present MMT spectroscopic observations of H II regions in 42 low luminosity galaxies in the Spitzer Local Volume Legacy survey. For 31 of the 42 galaxies in our sample, we were able to measure the temperature sensitive [O III] {lambda}4363 line at a strength of 4{sigma} or greater, and thus determine oxygen abundances using the 'direct' method. Our results provide the first 'direct' estimates of oxygen abundance for 19 of these galaxies. 'Direct' oxygen abundances were compared to B-band luminosities, 4.5 {mu}m luminosities, and stellar masses in order to characterize the luminosity-metallicity and mass-metallicity relationships at low luminosity. We present and analyze a 'Combined Select' sample composed of 38 objects (drawn from a sub-set of our parent sample and the literature) with 'direct' oxygen abundances and reliable distance determinations (based on the tip of the red giant branch or Cepheid variables). Consistent with previous studies, the B band and 4.5 {mu}m luminosity-metallicity relationships for the 38 objects were found to be 12 + log(O/H) = (6.27 {+-} 0.21) + (- 0.11 {+-} 0.01)M{sub B} and 12 + log(O/H) = (6.10 {+-} 0.21) + (- 0.10 {+-} 0.01)M{sub [4.5]} with dispersions of {sigma} = 0.15 and 0.14, respectively. The slopes of the optical and near-IR L-Z relationships have been reported to be different for galaxies with luminosities greater than that of the LMC. However, the similarity of the slopes of the optical and near-IR L-Z relationships for our sample probably reflects little influence by dust extinction in the low luminosity galaxies. For this sample, we derive a mass-metallicity relationship of 12 + log(O/H) = (5.61 {+-} 0.24) + (0.29 {+-} 0.03)log (M{sub *}), which agrees with previous studies; however, the dispersion ({sigma} = 0.15) is not significantly lower than that of the L-Z relationships. Because of the low dispersions in these relationships, if an accurate distance is available

A method to combine non-probability sample data with probability sample data in estimating spatial means of environmental variables

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brus, D.J.; Gruijter, de J.J.

2003-01-01

In estimating spatial means of environmental variables of a region from data collected by convenience or purposive sampling, validity of the results can be ensured by collecting additional data through probability sampling. The precision of the pi estimator that uses the probability sample can be

Understanding Phlebotomus perniciosus abundance in south-east Spain: assessing the role of environmental and anthropic factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Risueño, José; Muñoz, Clara; Pérez-Cutillas, Pedro; Goyena, Elena; Gonzálvez, Moisés; Ortuño, María; Bernal, Luis Jesús; Ortiz, Juana; Alten, Bulent; Berriatua, Eduardo

2017-04-19

Leishmaniosis is associated with Phlebotomus sand fly vector density, but our knowledge of the environmental framework that regulates highly overdispersed vector abundance distributions is limited. We used a standardized sampling procedure in the bioclimatically diverse Murcia Region in Spain and multilevel regression models for count data to estimate P. perniciosus abundance in relation to environmental and anthropic factors. Twenty-five dog and sheep premises were sampled for sand flies using adhesive and light-attraction traps, from late May to early October 2015. Temperature, relative humidity and other animal- and premise-related data recorded on site and other environmental data were extracted from digital databases using a geographical information system. The relationship between sand fly abundance and explanatory variables was analysed using binomial regression models. The total number of sand flies captured, mostly with light-attraction traps, was 3,644 specimens, including 80% P. perniciosus, the main L. infantum vector in Spain. Abundance varied between and within zones and was positively associated with increasing altitude from 0 to 900 m above sea level, except from 500 to 700 m where it was low. Populations peaked in July and especially during a 3-day heat wave when relative humidity and wind speed plummeted. Regression models indicated that climate and not land use or soil characteristics have the greatest impact on this species density on a large geographical scale. In contrast, micro-environmental factors such as animal building characteristics and husbandry practices affect sand fly population size on a smaller scale. A standardised sampling procedure and statistical analysis for highly overdispersed distributions allow reliable estimation of P. perniciosus abundance and identification of environmental drivers. While climatic variables have the greatest impact at macro-environmental scale, anthropic factors may be determinant at a micro

Optimum sampling scheme for characterization of mine tailings

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Debba, Pravesh

2009-07-01

Full Text Available The paper describes a novice method for sampling geochemicals to characterize mine tailings. The author’s model the spatial relationships between a multi-element signature and, as covariates, abundance estimates of secondary iron-bearing minerals...

EMSAR: estimation of transcript abundance from RNA-seq data by mappability-based segmentation and reclustering.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Soohyun; Seo, Chae Hwa; Alver, Burak Han; Lee, Sanghyuk; Park, Peter J

2015-09-03

RNA-seq has been widely used for genome-wide expression profiling. RNA-seq data typically consists of tens of millions of short sequenced reads from different transcripts. However, due to sequence similarity among genes and among isoforms, the source of a given read is often ambiguous. Existing approaches for estimating expression levels from RNA-seq reads tend to compromise between accuracy and computational cost. We introduce a new approach for quantifying transcript abundance from RNA-seq data. EMSAR (Estimation by Mappability-based Segmentation And Reclustering) groups reads according to the set of transcripts to which they are mapped and finds maximum likelihood estimates using a joint Poisson model for each optimal set of segments of transcripts. The method uses nearly all mapped reads, including those mapped to multiple genes. With an efficient transcriptome indexing based on modified suffix arrays, EMSAR minimizes the use of CPU time and memory while achieving accuracy comparable to the best existing methods. EMSAR is a method for quantifying transcripts from RNA-seq data with high accuracy and low computational cost. EMSAR is available at https://github.com/parklab/emsar.

Low-sampling-rate ultra-wideband channel estimation using a bounded-data-uncertainty approach

KAUST Repository

Ballal, Tarig

2014-01-01

This paper proposes a low-sampling-rate scheme for ultra-wideband channel estimation. In the proposed scheme, P pulses are transmitted to produce P observations. These observations are exploited to produce channel impulse response estimates at a desired sampling rate, while the ADC operates at a rate that is P times less. To avoid loss of fidelity, the interpulse interval, given in units of sampling periods of the desired rate, is restricted to be co-prime with P. This condition is affected when clock drift is present and the transmitted pulse locations change. To handle this situation and to achieve good performance without using prior information, we derive an improved estimator based on the bounded data uncertainty (BDU) model. This estimator is shown to be related to the Bayesian linear minimum mean squared error (LMMSE) estimator. The performance of the proposed sub-sampling scheme was tested in conjunction with the new estimator. It is shown that high reduction in sampling rate can be achieved. The proposed estimator outperforms the least squares estimator in most cases; while in the high SNR regime, it also outperforms the LMMSE estimator. © 2014 IEEE.

THE QUADRANTS METHOD TO ESTIMATE QUANTITATIVE VARIABLES IN MANAGEMENT PLANS IN THE AMAZON

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriel da Silva Oliveira

2015-12-01

Full Text Available This work aimed to evaluate the accuracy in estimates of abundance, basal area and commercial volume per hectare, by the quadrants method applied to an area of 1.000 hectares of rain forest in the Amazon. Samples were simulated by random and systematic process with different sample sizes, ranging from 100 to 200 sampling points. The amounts estimated by the samples were compared with the parametric values recorded in the census. In the analysis we considered as the population all trees with diameter at breast height equal to or greater than 40 cm. The quadrants method did not reach the desired level of accuracy for the variables basal area and commercial volume, overestimating the observed values recorded in the census. However, the accuracy of the estimates of abundance, basal area and commercial volume was satisfactory for applying the method in forest inventories for management plans in the Amazon.

The use of Thompson sampling to increase estimation precision

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kaptein, M.C.

2015-01-01

In this article, we consider a sequential sampling scheme for efficient estimation of the difference between the means of two independent treatments when the population variances are unequal across groups. The sampling scheme proposed is based on a solution to bandit problems called Thompson

Power and sample-size estimation for microbiome studies using pairwise distances and PERMANOVA

OpenAIRE

Kelly, Brendan J.; Gross, Robert; Bittinger, Kyle; Sherrill-Mix, Scott; Lewis, James D.; Collman, Ronald G.; Bushman, Frederic D.; Li, Hongzhe

2015-01-01

Motivation: The variation in community composition between microbiome samples, termed beta diversity, can be measured by pairwise distance based on either presence–absence or quantitative species abundance data. PERMANOVA, a permutation-based extension of multivariate analysis of variance to a matrix of pairwise distances, partitions within-group and between-group distances to permit assessment of the effect of an exposure or intervention (grouping factor) upon the sampled microbiome. Within-...

Estimation of river and stream temperature trends under haphazard sampling

Science.gov (United States)

Gray, Brian R.; Lyubchich, Vyacheslav; Gel, Yulia R.; Rogala, James T.; Robertson, Dale M.; Wei, Xiaoqiao

2015-01-01

Long-term temporal trends in water temperature in rivers and streams are typically estimated under the assumption of evenly-spaced space-time measurements. However, sampling times and dates associated with historical water temperature datasets and some sampling designs may be haphazard. As a result, trends in temperature may be confounded with trends in time or space of sampling which, in turn, may yield biased trend estimators and thus unreliable conclusions. We address this concern using multilevel (hierarchical) linear models, where time effects are allowed to vary randomly by day and date effects by year. We evaluate the proposed approach by Monte Carlo simulations with imbalance, sparse data and confounding by trend in time and date of sampling. Simulation results indicate unbiased trend estimators while results from a case study of temperature data from the Illinois River, USA conform to river thermal assumptions. We also propose a new nonparametric bootstrap inference on multilevel models that allows for a relatively flexible and distribution-free quantification of uncertainties. The proposed multilevel modeling approach may be elaborated to accommodate nonlinearities within days and years when sampling times or dates typically span temperature extremes.

Abundances of presolar silicon carbide grains in primitive meteorites determined by NanoSIMS

Science.gov (United States)

Davidson, Jemma; Busemann, Henner; Nittler, Larry R.; Alexander, Conel M. O.'D.; Orthous-Daunay, François-Régis; Franchi, Ian A.; Hoppe, Peter

2014-08-01

It has been suggested that the matrices of all chondrites are dominated by a common material with Ivuna-like (CI) abundances of volatiles, presolar grains and insoluble organic matter (IOM) (e.g., Alexander, 2005). However, matrix-normalized abundances of presolar silicon carbide (SiC) grains estimated from their noble gas components show significant variations in even the most primitive chondrites (Huss and Lewis, 1995; Huss et al., 2003), in contradiction to there being a common chondrite matrix material. Here we report presolar SiC abundances determined by NanoSIMS raster ion imaging of IOM extracted from primitive members of different meteorite groups. We show that presolar SiC abundance determinations are comparable between NanoSIMS instruments located at three different institutes, between residues prepared by different demineralization techniques, and between microtomed and non-microtomed samples. Our derived SiC abundances in CR chondrites are comparable to those found in the CI chondrites (∼30 ppm) and are much higher than previously determined by noble gas analyses. The revised higher CR SiC abundances are consistent with the CRs being amongst the most primitive chondrites in terms of the isotopic compositions and disordered nature of their organic matter. Similar abundances between CR1, CR2, and CR3 chondrites indicate aqueous alteration on the CR chondrite parent body has not progressively destroyed SiC grains in them. A low SiC abundance for the reduced CV3 RBT 04133 can be explained by parent body thermal metamorphism at an estimated temperature of ∼440 °C. Minor differences between primitive members of other meteorite classes, which did not experience such high temperatures, may be explained by prolonged oxidation at lower temperatures under which SiC grains formed outer layers of SiO2 that were not thermodynamically stable, leading to progressive degassing/destruction of SiC.

Estimating Sample Size for Usability Testing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alex Cazañas

2017-02-01

Full Text Available One strategy used to assure that an interface meets user requirements is to conduct usability testing. When conducting such testing one of the unknowns is sample size. Since extensive testing is costly, minimizing the number of participants can contribute greatly to successful resource management of a project. Even though a significant number of models have been proposed to estimate sample size in usability testing, there is still not consensus on the optimal size. Several studies claim that 3 to 5 users suffice to uncover 80% of problems in a software interface. However, many other studies challenge this assertion. This study analyzed data collected from the user testing of a web application to verify the rule of thumb, commonly known as the “magic number 5”. The outcomes of the analysis showed that the 5-user rule significantly underestimates the required sample size to achieve reasonable levels of problem detection.

Abundance and distribution of feral pigs at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, 2010-2013

Science.gov (United States)

Hess, Steven C.; Leopold, Christina R.; Kendall, Steven J.

2013-01-01

The Hakalau Forest Unit of the Big Island National Wildlife Refuge Complex has intensively managed feral pigs (Sus scrofa) and monitored feral pig presence with surveys of all managed areas since 1988. Results of all available data regarding pig management activities through 2004 were compiled and analyzed, but no further analyses had been conducted since then. The objective of this report was to analyze recent feral ungulate surveys at the Hakalau Forest Unit to determine current pig abundance and distribution. Activity indices for feral pigs, consisting of the presence of fresh or intermediate sign at 422 stations, each with approximately 20 sample plots, were compiled for years 2010–2013. A calibrated model based on the number of pigs removed from one management unit and concurrent activity surveys was applied to estimate pig abundance in other management units. Although point estimates appeared to decrease from 489.1 (±105.6) in 2010 to 407.6 (±88.0) in 2013, 95% confidence intervals overlapped, indicating no significant change in pig abundance within all management units. Nonetheless, there were significant declines in pig abundance over the four-year period within management units 1, 6, and 7. Areas where pig abundance remained high include the southern portion of Unit 2. Results of these surveys will be useful for directing management actions towards specific management units.

Determining Sample Size for Accurate Estimation of the Squared Multiple Correlation Coefficient.

Science.gov (United States)

Algina, James; Olejnik, Stephen

2000-01-01

Discusses determining sample size for estimation of the squared multiple correlation coefficient and presents regression equations that permit determination of the sample size for estimating this parameter for up to 20 predictor variables. (SLD)

Statistical methods for detecting differentially abundant features in clinical metagenomic samples.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James Robert White

2009-04-01

Full Text Available Numerous studies are currently underway to characterize the microbial communities inhabiting our world. These studies aim to dramatically expand our understanding of the microbial biosphere and, more importantly, hope to reveal the secrets of the complex symbiotic relationship between us and our commensal bacterial microflora. An important prerequisite for such discoveries are computational tools that are able to rapidly and accurately compare large datasets generated from complex bacterial communities to identify features that distinguish them.We present a statistical method for comparing clinical metagenomic samples from two treatment populations on the basis of count data (e.g. as obtained through sequencing to detect differentially abundant features. Our method, Metastats, employs the false discovery rate to improve specificity in high-complexity environments, and separately handles sparsely-sampled features using Fisher's exact test. Under a variety of simulations, we show that Metastats performs well compared to previously used methods, and significantly outperforms other methods for features with sparse counts. We demonstrate the utility of our method on several datasets including a 16S rRNA survey of obese and lean human gut microbiomes, COG functional profiles of infant and mature gut microbiomes, and bacterial and viral metabolic subsystem data inferred from random sequencing of 85 metagenomes. The application of our method to the obesity dataset reveals differences between obese and lean subjects not reported in the original study. For the COG and subsystem datasets, we provide the first statistically rigorous assessment of the differences between these populations. The methods described in this paper are the first to address clinical metagenomic datasets comprising samples from multiple subjects. Our methods are robust across datasets of varied complexity and sampling level. While designed for metagenomic applications, our software

Density meter algorithm and system for estimating sampling/mixing uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shine, E.P.

1986-01-01

The Laboratories Department at the Savannah River Plant (SRP) has installed a six-place density meter with an automatic sampling device. This paper describes the statistical software developed to analyze the density of uranyl nitrate solutions using this automated system. The purpose of this software is twofold: to estimate the sampling/mixing and measurement uncertainties in the process and to provide a measurement control program for the density meter. Non-uniformities in density are analyzed both analytically and graphically. The mean density and its limit of error are estimated. Quality control standards are analyzed concurrently with process samples and used to control the density meter measurement error. The analyses are corrected for concentration due to evaporation of samples waiting to be analyzed. The results of this program have been successful in identifying sampling/mixing problems and controlling the quality of analyses

Density meter algorithm and system for estimating sampling/mixing uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shine, E.P.

1986-01-01

The Laboratories Department at the Savannah River Plant (SRP) has installed a six-place density meter with an automatic sampling device. This paper describes the statisical software developed to analyze the density of uranyl nitrate solutions using this automated system. The purpose of this software is twofold: to estimate the sampling/mixing and measurement uncertainties in the process and to provide a measurement control program for the density meter. Non-uniformities in density are analyzed both analytically and graphically. The mean density and its limit of error are estimated. Quality control standards are analyzed concurrently with process samples and used to control the density meter measurement error. The analyses are corrected for concentration due to evaporation of samples waiting to be analyzed. The results of this program have been successful in identifying sampling/mixing problems and controlling the quality of analyses

Estimating the size of juvenile fish populations in southeastern coastal-plain estuaries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kjelson, M.A.

1977-01-01

Understanding the ecological significance of man's activities upon fishery resources requires information on the size of affected fish stocks. The objective of this paper is to provide information to evaluate and plan sampling programs designed to obtain accurate and precise estimates of fish abundance. Nursery habitats, as marsh--tidal creeks and submerged grass beds, offer the optimal conditions for estimating natural mortality rates for young-of-the-year fish in Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coast estuaries. The area-density method of abundance estimation using quantitative gears is more feasible than either mark-recapture or direct-count techniques. The blockage method provides the most accurate estimates, while encircling devices enable highly mobile species found in open water to be captured. Drop nets and lift nets allow samples to be taken in obstructed sites, but trawls and seines are the most economical gears. Replicate samples are necessary to improve the precision of density estimates, while evaluation and use of gear-catch efficiencies is feasible and required to improve the accuracy of density estimates. Coefficients of variation for replicate trawl samples range from 50 to 150 percent, while catch efficiencies for both trawls and seines for many juvenile fishes range from approximately 30 to 70 percent

Oxygen abundances in halo stars

Science.gov (United States)

Bessell, Michael S.; Sutherland, Ralph S.; Ruan, Kui

1991-12-01

The present study determines the oxygen abundance for a sample of metal-poor G dwarfs by analysis of OH lines between 3080 and 3200 A and the permitted high-excitation far-red O I triple. The oxygen abundances determined from the low-excitation OH lines are up to 0.55 dex lower than those measured from the high-excitation O I lines. The abundances for the far-red O I triplet lines agree with those rederived from Abia and Rebolo (1989), and the abundances from the OH lines in dwarfs and giants are in agreement with the rederived O abundances of Barbuy (1988) and others from the forbidden resonance O I line. Because the chi = 0.1.7 eV OH lines are formed in the same layers as the majority of Fe, Ti, and other neutral metal lines used for abundance analyses, it is argued that the OH lines and the forbidden O I line yield the true oxygen abundances relative to the metals.

Raft and floating radio frequency identification (RFID) antenna systems for detecting and estimating abundance of PIT-tagged fish in rivers

Science.gov (United States)

Fetherman, Eric R.; Avila, Brian W.; Winkelman, Dana L.

2016-01-01

Portable radio frequency identification (RFID) PIT tag antenna systems are increasingly being used in studies examining aquatic animal movement, survival, and habitat use, and their design flexibility permits application in a wide variety of settings. We describe the construction, use, and performance of two portable floating RFID PIT tag antenna systems designed to detect fish that were unavailable for recapture using stationary antennas or electrofishing. A raft antenna system was designed to detect and locate PIT-tagged fish in relatively long (i.e., ≥10 km) river reaches, and consisted of two antennas: (1) a horizontal antenna (4 × 1.2 m) installed on the bottom of the raft and used to detect fish in shallower river reaches (<1 m), and (2) a vertical antenna (2.7 × 1.2 m) for detecting fish in deeper pools (≥1 m). Detection distances of the horizontal antenna were between 0.7 and 1.0 m, and detection probability was 0.32 ± 0.02 (mean ± SE) in a field test using rocks marked with 32-mm PIT tags. Detection probability of PIT-tagged fish in the Cache la Poudre River, Colorado, using the raft antenna system, which covered 21% of the wetted area, was 0.14 ± 0.14. A shore-deployed floating antenna (14.6 × 0.6 m), which covered 100% of the wetted area, was designed for use by two operators for detecting and locating PIT-tagged fish in shorter (i.e., <2 km) river reaches. Detection distances of the shore-deployed floating antenna were between 0.7 and 0.8 m, and detection probabilities during field deployment in the St. Vrain River exceeded 0.52. The shore-deployed floating antenna was also used to estimate abundance of PIT-tagged fish. Results suggest that the shore-deployed floating antenna could be used as an alternative to estimating abundance using traditional sampling methods such as electrofishing.

Finite Sample Comparison of Parametric, Semiparametric, and Wavelet Estimators of Fractional Integration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Morten Ø.; Frederiksen, Per Houmann

2005-01-01

In this paper we compare through Monte Carlo simulations the finite sample properties of estimators of the fractional differencing parameter, d. This involves frequency domain, time domain, and wavelet based approaches, and we consider both parametric and semiparametric estimation methods. The es...... the time domain parametric methods, and (4) without sufficient trimming of scales the wavelet-based estimators are heavily biased.......In this paper we compare through Monte Carlo simulations the finite sample properties of estimators of the fractional differencing parameter, d. This involves frequency domain, time domain, and wavelet based approaches, and we consider both parametric and semiparametric estimation methods....... The estimators are briefly introduced and compared, and the criteria adopted for measuring finite sample performance are bias and root mean squared error. Most importantly, the simulations reveal that (1) the frequency domain maximum likelihood procedure is superior to the time domain parametric methods, (2) all...

Bumble bee nest abundance, foraging distance, and host-plant reproduction: implications for management and conservation.

Science.gov (United States)

Geib, Jennifer C; Strange, James P; Galenj, Candace

2015-04-01

Recent reports of global declines in pollinator species imply an urgent need to assess the abundance of native pollinators and density-dependent benefits for linked plants. In this study, we investigated (1) pollinator nest distributions and estimated colony abundances, (2) the relationship between abundances of foraging workers and the number of nests they represent, (3) pollinator foraging ranges, and (4) the relationship between pollinator abundance and plant reproduction. We examined these questions in an alpine ecosystem in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, focusing on four alpine bumble bee species (Bombus balteatus, B. flavifrons, B. bifarius, and B. sylvicola), and two host plants that differ in their degrees of pollinator specialization (Trifolium dasyphyllum and T. parryi). Using microsatellites, we found that estimated colony abundances among Bombus species ranged from ~18 to 78 colonies/0.01 km2. The long-tongued species B. balteatus was most common, especially high above treeline, but the subalpine species B. bifarius was unexpectedly abundant for this elevation range. Nests detected among sampled foragers of each species were correlated with the number of foragers caught. Foraging ranges were smaller than expected for all Bombus species, ranging from 25 to 110 m. Fruit set for the specialized plant, Trifolium parryi, was positively related to the abundance of its Bombus pollinator. In contrast, fruit set for the generalized plant, T. dasyphyllum, was related to abundance of all Bombus species. Because forager abundance was related to nest abundance of each Bombus species and was an equally effective predictor of plant fecundity, forager inventories are probably suitable for assessing the health of outcrossing plant populations. However, nest abundance, rather than forager abundance, better reflects demographic and genetic health in populations of eusocial pollinators such as bumble bees. Development of models incorporating the parameters we have measured

Constrained Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Relative Abundances of Protein Conformation in a Heterogeneous Mixture from Small Angle X-Ray Scattering Intensity Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Onuk, A. Emre; Akcakaya, Murat; Bardhan, Jaydeep P.; Erdogmus, Deniz; Brooks, Dana H.; Makowski, Lee

2015-01-01

In this paper, we describe a model for maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the relative abundances of different conformations of a protein in a heterogeneous mixture from small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) intensities. To consider cases where the solution includes intermediate or unknown conformations, we develop a subset selection method based on k-means clustering and the Cramér-Rao bound on the mixture coefficient estimation error to find a sparse basis set that represents the space spanned by the measured SAXS intensities of the known conformations of a protein. Then, using the selected basis set and the assumptions on the model for the intensity measurements, we show that the MLE model can be expressed as a constrained convex optimization problem. Employing the adenylate kinase (ADK) protein and its known conformations as an example, and using Monte Carlo simulations, we demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation scheme. Here, although we use 45 crystallographically determined experimental structures and we could generate many more using, for instance, molecular dynamics calculations, the clustering technique indicates that the data cannot support the determination of relative abundances for more than 5 conformations. The estimation of this maximum number of conformations is intrinsic to the methodology we have used here. PMID:26924916

Climate change likely to reduce orchid bee abundance even in climatic suitable sites.

Science.gov (United States)

Faleiro, Frederico Valtuille; Nemésio, André; Loyola, Rafael

2018-06-01

Studies have tested whether model predictions based on species' occurrence can predict the spatial pattern of population abundance. The relationship between predicted environmental suitability and population abundance varies in shape, strength and predictive power. However, little attention has been paid to the congruence in predictions of different models fed with occurrence or abundance data, in particular when comparing metrics of climate change impact. Here, we used the ecological niche modeling fit with presence-absence and abundance data of orchid bees to predict the effect of climate change on species and assembly level distribution patterns. In addition, we assessed whether predictions of presence-absence models can be used as a proxy to abundance patterns. We obtained georeferenced abundance data of orchid bees (Hymenoptera: Apidae: Euglossina) in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Sampling method consisted in attracting male orchid bees to baits of at least five different aromatic compounds and collecting the individuals with entomological nets or bait traps. We limited abundance data to those obtained by similar standard sampling protocol to avoid bias in abundance estimation. We used boosted regression trees to model ecological niches and project them into six climate models and two Representative Concentration Pathways. We found that models based on species occurrences worked as a proxy for changes in population abundance when the output of the models were continuous; results were very different when outputs were discretized to binary predictions. We found an overall trend of diminishing abundance in the future, but a clear retention of climatically suitable sites too. Furthermore, geographic distance to gained climatic suitable areas can be very short, although it embraces great variation. Changes in species richness and turnover would be concentrated in western and southern Atlantic Forest. Our findings offer support to the ongoing debate of suitability-abundance

Zooplankton biomass and abundance of Antarctic krill Euphausia superba DANA in Indian Ocean sector of the southern ocean

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Ingole, B.S.; Parulekar, A.H.

Zooplankton sampling was carried out during the first six Indian Scientific Expeditions to Antarctica (1981-1987) to estimate krill abundance in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean (between 35 to 70 degrees S and 10 to 52 degrees E). This study...

Assessment of sampling strategies for estimation of site mean concentrations of stormwater pollutants.

Science.gov (United States)

McCarthy, David T; Zhang, Kefeng; Westerlund, Camilla; Viklander, Maria; Bertrand-Krajewski, Jean-Luc; Fletcher, Tim D; Deletic, Ana

2018-02-01

The estimation of stormwater pollutant concentrations is a primary requirement of integrated urban water management. In order to determine effective sampling strategies for estimating pollutant concentrations, data from extensive field measurements at seven different catchments was used. At all sites, 1-min resolution continuous flow measurements, as well as flow-weighted samples, were taken and analysed for total suspend solids (TSS), total nitrogen (TN) and Escherichia coli (E. coli). For each of these parameters, the data was used to calculate the Event Mean Concentrations (EMCs) for each event. The measured Site Mean Concentrations (SMCs) were taken as the volume-weighted average of these EMCs for each parameter, at each site. 17 different sampling strategies, including random and fixed strategies were tested to estimate SMCs, which were compared with the measured SMCs. The ratios of estimated/measured SMCs were further analysed to determine the most effective sampling strategies. Results indicate that the random sampling strategies were the most promising method in reproducing SMCs for TSS and TN, while some fixed sampling strategies were better for estimating the SMC of E. coli. The differences in taking one, two or three random samples were small (up to 20% for TSS, and 10% for TN and E. coli), indicating that there is little benefit in investing in collection of more than one sample per event if attempting to estimate the SMC through monitoring of multiple events. It was estimated that an average of 27 events across the studied catchments are needed for characterising SMCs of TSS with a 90% confidence interval (CI) width of 1.0, followed by E.coli (average 12 events) and TN (average 11 events). The coefficient of variation of pollutant concentrations was linearly and significantly correlated to the 90% confidence interval ratio of the estimated/measured SMCs (R 2  = 0.49; P sampling frequency needed to accurately estimate SMCs of pollutants. Crown

Monitoring the abundance of plastic debris in the marine environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Ryan, Peter G; Moore, Charles J; van Franeker, Jan A; Moloney, Coleen L

2009-07-27

Plastic debris has significant environmental and economic impacts in marine systems. Monitoring is crucial to assess the efficacy of measures implemented to reduce the abundance of plastic debris, but it is complicated by large spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the amounts of plastic debris and by our limited understanding of the pathways followed by plastic debris and its long-term fate. To date, most monitoring has focused on beach surveys of stranded plastics and other litter. Infrequent surveys of the standing stock of litter on beaches provide crude estimates of debris types and abundance, but are biased by differential removal of litter items by beachcombing, cleanups and beach dynamics. Monitoring the accumulation of stranded debris provides an index of debris trends in adjacent waters, but is costly to undertake. At-sea sampling requires large sample sizes for statistical power to detect changes in abundance, given the high spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Another approach is to monitor the impacts of plastics. Seabirds and other marine organisms that accumulate plastics in their stomachs offer a cost-effective way to monitor the abundance and composition of small plastic litter. Changes in entanglement rates are harder to interpret, as they are sensitive to changes in population sizes of affected species. Monitoring waste disposal on ships and plastic debris levels in rivers and storm-water runoff is useful because it identifies the main sources of plastic debris entering the sea and can direct mitigation efforts. Different monitoring approaches are required to answer different questions, but attempts should be made to standardize approaches internationally.

Abundance, Distribution and Estimated Consumption (kg fish) of Piscivorous Birds Along the Yakima River, Washington State; Implications for Fisheries Management, 2002 Annual Report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Major, III, Walter; Grassley, James M.; Ryding, Kristen E. (University of Washington, Quantitive Ecology Program, Seattle, WA)

2003-05-01

This report is divided into two chapters. The abstract for chapter one is--Understanding of the abundance and spatial and temporal distributions of piscivorous birds and their potential consumption of fish is an increasingly important aspect of fisheries management. During 1999-2002, we determined the abundance and distribution and estimated the maximum consumption (kg biomass) of fish-eating birds along the length of the Yakima River in Washington State. Sixteen different species were observed during the 4-yr study, but only half of those were observed during all years. Abundance and estimated consumption of fish within the upper and middle sections of the river were dominated by common mergansers (Mergus merganser) which are known to breed in those reaches. Common mergansers accounted for 78 to 94% of the estimated total fish take for the upper river or approximately 28,383 {+-} 1,041 kg over the 4 yrs. A greater diversity of avian piscivores occurred in the lower river and potential impacts to fish populations was more evenly distributed among the species. In 1999-2000, great blue herons potentially accounted for 29 and 36% of the fish consumed, whereas in 2001-2002 American white pelicans accounted for 53 and 55%. We estimated that approximately 75,878 {+-} 6,616 kg of fish were consumed by piscivorous birds in the lower sections of the river during the study. Bird assemblages differed spatially along the river with a greater abundance of colonial nesting species within the lower sections of the river, especially during spring and the nesting season. The abundance of avian piscivores and consumption estimates are discussed within the context of salmonid supplementation efforts on the river and juvenile out-migration. The abstract for chapter two is--Consumption of fish by piscivorous birds may be a significant constraint on efforts to enhance salmonid populations within tributaries to the Columbia River in Washington State. During 1999-2002, we determined the

Gray bootstrap method for estimating frequency-varying random vibration signals with small samples

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wang Yanqing

2014-04-01

Full Text Available During environment testing, the estimation of random vibration signals (RVS is an important technique for the airborne platform safety and reliability. However, the available methods including extreme value envelope method (EVEM, statistical tolerances method (STM and improved statistical tolerance method (ISTM require large samples and typical probability distribution. Moreover, the frequency-varying characteristic of RVS is usually not taken into account. Gray bootstrap method (GBM is proposed to solve the problem of estimating frequency-varying RVS with small samples. Firstly, the estimated indexes are obtained including the estimated interval, the estimated uncertainty, the estimated value, the estimated error and estimated reliability. In addition, GBM is applied to estimating the single flight testing of certain aircraft. At last, in order to evaluate the estimated performance, GBM is compared with bootstrap method (BM and gray method (GM in testing analysis. The result shows that GBM has superiority for estimating dynamic signals with small samples and estimated reliability is proved to be 100% at the given confidence level.

Inferring recent historic abundance from current genetic diversity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Palsboll, Per J.; Peery, M. Zachariah; Olsen, Morten T.; Beissinger, Steven R.; Berube, Martine

Recent historic abundance is an elusive parameter of great importance for conserving endangered species and understanding the pre-anthropogenic state of the biosphere. The number of studies that have used population genetic theory to estimate recent historic abundance from contemporary levels of

Estimating rare events in biochemical systems using conditional sampling

Science.gov (United States)

Sundar, V. S.

2017-01-01

The paper focuses on development of variance reduction strategies to estimate rare events in biochemical systems. Obtaining this probability using brute force Monte Carlo simulations in conjunction with the stochastic simulation algorithm (Gillespie's method) is computationally prohibitive. To circumvent this, important sampling tools such as the weighted stochastic simulation algorithm and the doubly weighted stochastic simulation algorithm have been proposed. However, these strategies require an additional step of determining the important region to sample from, which is not straightforward for most of the problems. In this paper, we apply the subset simulation method, developed as a variance reduction tool in the context of structural engineering, to the problem of rare event estimation in biochemical systems. The main idea is that the rare event probability is expressed as a product of more frequent conditional probabilities. These conditional probabilities are estimated with high accuracy using Monte Carlo simulations, specifically the Markov chain Monte Carlo method with the modified Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Generating sample realizations of the state vector using the stochastic simulation algorithm is viewed as mapping the discrete-state continuous-time random process to the standard normal random variable vector. This viewpoint opens up the possibility of applying more sophisticated and efficient sampling schemes developed elsewhere to problems in stochastic chemical kinetics. The results obtained using the subset simulation method are compared with existing variance reduction strategies for a few benchmark problems, and a satisfactory improvement in computational time is demonstrated.

Ad-Hoc vs. Standardized and Optimized Arthropod Diversity Sampling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pedro Cardoso

2009-09-01

Full Text Available The use of standardized and optimized protocols has been recently advocated for different arthropod taxa instead of ad-hoc sampling or sampling with protocols defined on a case-by-case basis. We present a comparison of both sampling approaches applied for spiders in a natural area of Portugal. Tests were made to their efficiency, over-collection of common species, singletons proportions, species abundance distributions, average specimen size, average taxonomic distinctness and behavior of richness estimators. The standardized protocol revealed three main advantages: (1 higher efficiency; (2 more reliable estimations of true richness; and (3 meaningful comparisons between undersampled areas.

Estimation for small domains in double sampling for stratification ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this article, we investigate the effect of randomness of the size of a small domain on the precision of an estimator of mean for the domain under double sampling for stratification. The result shows that for a small domain that cuts across various strata with unknown weights, the sampling variance depends on the within ...

Sampling strategies for efficient estimation of tree foliage biomass

Science.gov (United States)

Hailemariam Temesgen; Vicente Monleon; Aaron Weiskittel; Duncan Wilson

2011-01-01

Conifer crowns can be highly variable both within and between trees, particularly with respect to foliage biomass and leaf area. A variety of sampling schemes have been used to estimate biomass and leaf area at the individual tree and stand scales. Rarely has the effectiveness of these sampling schemes been compared across stands or even across species. In addition,...

Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ian J Fiske

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5, and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high

Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

Science.gov (United States)

Fiske, Ian J; Bruna, Emilio M; Bolker, Benjamin M

2008-08-28

Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities.

One Percent Determination of the Primordial Deuterium Abundance

Science.gov (United States)

Cooke, Ryan J.; Pettini, Max; Steidel, Charles C.

2018-03-01

We report a reanalysis of a near-pristine absorption system, located at a redshift {z}abs}=2.52564 toward the quasar Q1243+307, based on the combination of archival and new data obtained with the HIRES echelle spectrograph on the Keck telescope. This absorption system, which has an oxygen abundance [O/H] = ‑2.769 ± 0.028 (≃1/600 of the solar abundance), is among the lowest metallicity systems currently known where a precise measurement of the deuterium abundance is afforded. Our detailed analysis of this system concludes, on the basis of eight D I absorption lines, that the deuterium abundance of this gas cloud is {log}}10({{D}}/{{H}})=-4.622+/- 0.015, which is in very good agreement with the results previously reported by Kirkman et al., but with an improvement on the precision of this single measurement by a factor of ∼3.5. Combining this new estimate with our previous sample of six high precision and homogeneously analyzed D/H measurements, we deduce that the primordial deuterium abundance is {log}}10{({{D}}/{{H}})}{{P}}=-4.5974+/- 0.0052 or, expressed as a linear quantity, {10}5{({{D}}/{{H}})}{{P}}=2.527+/- 0.030; this value corresponds to a one percent determination of the primordial deuterium abundance. Combining our result with a big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) calculation that uses the latest nuclear physics input, we find that the baryon density derived from BBN agrees to within 2σ of the latest results from the Planck cosmic microwave background data. Based on observations collected at the W.M. Keck Observatory which is operated as a scientific partnership among the California Institute of Technology, the University of California, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. The Observatory was made possible by the generous financial support of the W.M. Keck Foundation.

A method for estimating radioactive cesium concentrations in cattle blood using urine samples.

Science.gov (United States)

Sato, Itaru; Yamagishi, Ryoma; Sasaki, Jun; Satoh, Hiroshi; Miura, Kiyoshi; Kikuchi, Kaoru; Otani, Kumiko; Okada, Keiji

2017-12-01

In the region contaminated by the Fukushima nuclear accident, radioactive contamination of live cattle should be checked before slaughter. In this study, we establish a precise method for estimating radioactive cesium concentrations in cattle blood using urine samples. Blood and urine samples were collected from a total of 71 cattle on two farms in the 'difficult-to-return zone'. Urine 137 Cs, specific gravity, electrical conductivity, pH, sodium, potassium, calcium, and creatinine were measured and various estimation methods for blood 137 Cs were tested. The average error rate of the estimation was 54.2% without correction. Correcting for urine creatinine, specific gravity, electrical conductivity, or potassium improved the precision of the estimation. Correcting for specific gravity using the following formula gave the most precise estimate (average error rate = 16.9%): [blood 137 Cs] = [urinary 137 Cs]/([specific gravity] - 1)/329. Urine samples are faster to measure than blood samples because urine can be obtained in larger quantities and has a higher 137 Cs concentration than blood. These advantages of urine and the estimation precision demonstrated in our study, indicate that estimation of blood 137 Cs using urine samples is a practical means of monitoring radioactive contamination in live cattle. © 2017 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

Failure Probability Estimation Using Asymptotic Sampling and Its Dependence upon the Selected Sampling Scheme

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martinásková Magdalena

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The article examines the use of Asymptotic Sampling (AS for the estimation of failure probability. The AS algorithm requires samples of multidimensional Gaussian random vectors, which may be obtained by many alternative means that influence the performance of the AS method. Several reliability problems (test functions have been selected in order to test AS with various sampling schemes: (i Monte Carlo designs; (ii LHS designs optimized using the Periodic Audze-Eglājs (PAE criterion; (iii designs prepared using Sobol’ sequences. All results are compared with the exact failure probability value.

Maximum likelihood estimation for Cox's regression model under nested case-control sampling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scheike, Thomas; Juul, Anders

2004-01-01

Nested case-control sampling is designed to reduce the costs of large cohort studies. It is important to estimate the parameters of interest as efficiently as possible. We present a new maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for nested case-control sampling in the context of Cox's proportional hazard...

Technical Report on Modeling for Quasispecies Abundance Inference with Confidence Intervals from Metagenomic Sequence Data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McLoughlin, K. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2016-01-11

The overall aim of this project is to develop a software package, called MetaQuant, that can determine the constituents of a complex microbial sample and estimate their relative abundances by analysis of metagenomic sequencing data. The goal for Task 1 is to create a generative model describing the stochastic process underlying the creation of sequence read pairs in the data set. The stages in this generative process include the selection of a source genome sequence for each read pair, with probability dependent on its abundance in the sample. The other stages describe the evolution of the source genome from its nearest common ancestor with a reference genome, breakage of the source DNA into short fragments, and the errors in sequencing the ends of the fragments to produce read pairs.

Understanding Aggregation and Estimating Seasonal Abundance of Chrysaora quinquecirrha Medusae from a Fixed-station Time Series in the Choptank River, Chesapeake Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Tay, J.; Hood, R. R.

2016-02-01

Although jellyfish exert strong control over marine plankton dynamics (Richardson et al. 2009, Robison et al. 2014) and negatively impact human commercial and recreational activities (Purcell et al. 2007, Purcell 2012), jellyfish biomass is not well quantified due primarily to sampling difficulties with plankton nets or fisheries trawls (Haddock 2004). As a result, some of the longest records of jellyfish are visual shore-based surveys, such as the fixed-station time series of Chrysaora quinquecirrha that began in 1960 in the Patuxent River in Chesapeake Bay, USA (Cargo and King 1990). Time series counts from fixed-station surveys capture two signals: 1) demographic change at timescales on the order of reproductive processes and 2) spatial patchiness at shorter timescales as different parcels of water move in and out of the survey area by tidal and estuarine advection and turbulent mixing (Lee and McAlice 1979). In this study, our goal was to separate these two signals using a 4-year time series of C. quinquecirrha medusa counts from a fixed-station in the Choptank River, Chesapeake Bay. Idealized modeling of tidal and estuarine advection was used to conceptualize the sampling scheme. Change point and time series analysis was used to detect demographic changes. Indices of aggregation (Negative Binomial coefficient, Taylor's Power Law coefficient, and Morisita's Index) were calculated to describe the spatial patchiness of the medusae. Abundance estimates revealed a bloom cycle that differed in duration and magnitude for each of the study years. Indices of aggregation indicated that medusae were aggregated and that patches grew in the number of individuals, and likely in size, as abundance increased. Further inference from the conceptual modeling suggested that medusae patch structure was generally homogenous over the tidal extent. This study highlights the benefits of using fixed-station shore-based surveys for understanding the biology and ecology of jellyfish.

The Open Cluster Chemical Abundances and Mapping (OCCAM) Survey: Galactic Neutron CaptureAbundance Gradients

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connell, Julia; Frinchaboy, Peter M.; Shetrone, Matthew D.; Melendez, Matthew; Cunha, Katia; Majewski, Steven R.; Zasowski, Gail; APOGEE Team

2017-06-01

The evolution of elements, as a function or age, throughout the Milky Way disk provides a key constraint for galaxy evolution models. In an effort to provide these constraints, we have conducted an investigation into the r- and s- process elemental abundances for a large sample of open clusters as part of an optical follow-up to the SDSS-III/APOGEE-1 survey. Stars were identified as cluster members by the Open Cluster Chemical Abundance & Mapping (OCCAM) survey, which culls member candidates by radial velocity, metallicity and proper motion from the observed APOGEE sample. To obtain data for neutron capture elements in these clusters, we conducted a long-term observing campaign covering three years (2013-2016) using the McDonald Observatory Otto Struve 2.1-m telescope and Sandiford Cass Echelle Spectrograph (R ~ 60,000). We present Galactic neutron capture abundance gradients using 30+ clusters, within 6 kpc of the Sun, covering a range of ages from ~80 Myr to ~10 Gyr .

Basin Visual Estimation Technique (BVET) and Representative Reach Approaches to Wadeable Stream Surveys: Methodological Limitations and Future Directions

Science.gov (United States)

Lance R. Williams; Melvin L. Warren; Susan B. Adams; Joseph L. Arvai; Christopher M. Taylor

2004-01-01

Basin Visual Estimation Techniques (BVET) are used to estimate abundance for fish populations in small streams. With BVET, independent samples are drawn from natural habitat units in the stream rather than sampling "representative reaches." This sampling protocol provides an alternative to traditional reach-level surveys, which are criticized for their lack...

Development of a sampling strategy and sample size calculation to estimate the distribution of mammographic breast density in Korean women.

Science.gov (United States)

Jun, Jae Kwan; Kim, Mi Jin; Choi, Kui Son; Suh, Mina; Jung, Kyu-Won

2012-01-01

Mammographic breast density is a known risk factor for breast cancer. To conduct a survey to estimate the distribution of mammographic breast density in Korean women, appropriate sampling strategies for representative and efficient sampling design were evaluated through simulation. Using the target population from the National Cancer Screening Programme (NCSP) for breast cancer in 2009, we verified the distribution estimate by repeating the simulation 1,000 times using stratified random sampling to investigate the distribution of breast density of 1,340,362 women. According to the simulation results, using a sampling design stratifying the nation into three groups (metropolitan, urban, and rural), with a total sample size of 4,000, we estimated the distribution of breast density in Korean women at a level of 0.01% tolerance. Based on the results of our study, a nationwide survey for estimating the distribution of mammographic breast density among Korean women can be conducted efficiently.

The Influence of Mark-Recapture Sampling Effort on Estimates of Rock Lobster Survival.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ziya Kordjazi

Full Text Available Five annual capture-mark-recapture surveys on Jasus edwardsii were used to evaluate the effect of sample size and fishing effort on the precision of estimated survival probability. Datasets of different numbers of individual lobsters (ranging from 200 to 1,000 lobsters were created by random subsampling from each annual survey. This process of random subsampling was also used to create 12 datasets of different levels of effort based on three levels of the number of traps (15, 30 and 50 traps per day and four levels of the number of sampling-days (2, 4, 6 and 7 days. The most parsimonious Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS model for estimating survival probability shifted from a constant model towards sex-dependent models with increasing sample size and effort. A sample of 500 lobsters or 50 traps used on four consecutive sampling-days was required for obtaining precise survival estimations for males and females, separately. Reduced sampling effort of 30 traps over four sampling days was sufficient if a survival estimate for both sexes combined was sufficient for management of the fishery.

The Influence of Mark-Recapture Sampling Effort on Estimates of Rock Lobster Survival

Science.gov (United States)

Kordjazi, Ziya; Frusher, Stewart; Buxton, Colin; Gardner, Caleb; Bird, Tomas

2016-01-01

Five annual capture-mark-recapture surveys on Jasus edwardsii were used to evaluate the effect of sample size and fishing effort on the precision of estimated survival probability. Datasets of different numbers of individual lobsters (ranging from 200 to 1,000 lobsters) were created by random subsampling from each annual survey. This process of random subsampling was also used to create 12 datasets of different levels of effort based on three levels of the number of traps (15, 30 and 50 traps per day) and four levels of the number of sampling-days (2, 4, 6 and 7 days). The most parsimonious Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model for estimating survival probability shifted from a constant model towards sex-dependent models with increasing sample size and effort. A sample of 500 lobsters or 50 traps used on four consecutive sampling-days was required for obtaining precise survival estimations for males and females, separately. Reduced sampling effort of 30 traps over four sampling days was sufficient if a survival estimate for both sexes combined was sufficient for management of the fishery. PMID:26990561

Replication Variance Estimation under Two-phase Sampling in the Presence of Non-response

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muqaddas Javed

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Kim and Yu (2011 discussed replication variance estimator for two-phase stratified sampling. In this paper estimators for mean have been proposed in two-phase stratified sampling for different situation of existence of non-response at first phase and second phase. The expressions of variances of these estimators have been derived. Furthermore, replication-based jackknife variance estimators of these variances have also been derived. Simulation study has been conducted to investigate the performance of the suggested estimators.

Estimation of reference intervals from small samples: an example using canine plasma creatinine.

Science.gov (United States)

Geffré, A; Braun, J P; Trumel, C; Concordet, D

2009-12-01

According to international recommendations, reference intervals should be determined from at least 120 reference individuals, which often are impossible to achieve in veterinary clinical pathology, especially for wild animals. When only a small number of reference subjects is available, the possible bias cannot be known and the normality of the distribution cannot be evaluated. A comparison of reference intervals estimated by different methods could be helpful. The purpose of this study was to compare reference limits determined from a large set of canine plasma creatinine reference values, and large subsets of this data, with estimates obtained from small samples selected randomly. Twenty sets each of 120 and 27 samples were randomly selected from a set of 1439 plasma creatinine results obtained from healthy dogs in another study. Reference intervals for the whole sample and for the large samples were determined by a nonparametric method. The estimated reference limits for the small samples were minimum and maximum, mean +/- 2 SD of native and Box-Cox-transformed values, 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles by a robust method on native and Box-Cox-transformed values, and estimates from diagrams of cumulative distribution functions. The whole sample had a heavily skewed distribution, which approached Gaussian after Box-Cox transformation. The reference limits estimated from small samples were highly variable. The closest estimates to the 1439-result reference interval for 27-result subsamples were obtained by both parametric and robust methods after Box-Cox transformation but were grossly erroneous in some cases. For small samples, it is recommended that all values be reported graphically in a dot plot or histogram and that estimates of the reference limits be compared using different methods.

A comparison of point counts with a new acoustic sampling method ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

We showed that the estimates of species richness, abundance and community composition based on point counts and post-hoc laboratory listening to acoustic samples are very similar, especially for a distance limited up to 50 m. Species that were frequently missed during both point counts and listening to acoustic samples ...

Inverse sampled Bernoulli (ISB) procedure for estimating a population proportion, with nuclear material applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wright, T.

1982-01-01

A new sampling procedure is introduced for estimating a population proportion. The procedure combines the ideas of inverse binomial sampling and Bernoulli sampling. An unbiased estimator is given with its variance. The procedure can be viewed as a generalization of inverse binomial sampling

An MCMC determination of the primordial helium abundance

Science.gov (United States)

Aver, Erik; Olive, Keith A.; Skillman, Evan D.

2012-04-01

Spectroscopic observations of the chemical abundances in metal-poor H II regions provide an independent method for estimating the primordial helium abundance. H II regions are described by several physical parameters such as electron density, electron temperature, and reddening, in addition to y, the ratio of helium to hydrogen. It had been customary to estimate or determine self-consistently these parameters to calculate y. Frequentist analyses of the parameter space have been shown to be successful in these parameter determinations, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques have proven to be very efficient in sampling this parameter space. Nevertheless, accurate determination of the primordial helium abundance from observations of H II regions is constrained by both systematic and statistical uncertainties. In an attempt to better reduce the latter, and continue to better characterize the former, we apply MCMC methods to the large dataset recently compiled by Izotov, Thuan, & Stasińska (2007). To improve the reliability of the determination, a high quality dataset is needed. In pursuit of this, a variety of cuts are explored. The efficacy of the He I λ4026 emission line as a constraint on the solutions is first examined, revealing the introduction of systematic bias through its absence. As a clear measure of the quality of the physical solution, a χ2 analysis proves instrumental in the selection of data compatible with the theoretical model. Nearly two-thirds of the observations fall outside a standard 95% confidence level cut, which highlights the care necessary in selecting systems and warrants further investigation into potential deficiencies of the model or data. In addition, the method also allows us to exclude systems for which parameter estimations are statistical outliers. As a result, the final selected dataset gains in reliability and exhibits improved consistency. Regression to zero metallicity yields Yp = 0.2534 ± 0.0083, in broad agreement

An MCMC determination of the primordial helium abundance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aver, Erik; Olive, Keith A.; Skillman, Evan D.

2012-01-01

Spectroscopic observations of the chemical abundances in metal-poor H II regions provide an independent method for estimating the primordial helium abundance. H II regions are described by several physical parameters such as electron density, electron temperature, and reddening, in addition to y, the ratio of helium to hydrogen. It had been customary to estimate or determine self-consistently these parameters to calculate y. Frequentist analyses of the parameter space have been shown to be successful in these parameter determinations, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques have proven to be very efficient in sampling this parameter space. Nevertheless, accurate determination of the primordial helium abundance from observations of H II regions is constrained by both systematic and statistical uncertainties. In an attempt to better reduce the latter, and continue to better characterize the former, we apply MCMC methods to the large dataset recently compiled by Izotov, Thuan, and Stasińska (2007). To improve the reliability of the determination, a high quality dataset is needed. In pursuit of this, a variety of cuts are explored. The efficacy of the He I λ4026 emission line as a constraint on the solutions is first examined, revealing the introduction of systematic bias through its absence. As a clear measure of the quality of the physical solution, a χ 2 analysis proves instrumental in the selection of data compatible with the theoretical model. Nearly two-thirds of the observations fall outside a standard 95% confidence level cut, which highlights the care necessary in selecting systems and warrants further investigation into potential deficiencies of the model or data. In addition, the method also allows us to exclude systems for which parameter estimations are statistical outliers. As a result, the final selected dataset gains in reliability and exhibits improved consistency. Regression to zero metallicity yields Y p = 0.2534 ± 0.0083, in broad

Abundance and diversity of aquatic macroinvertebrate communities in lakes exposed to Chernobyl-derived ionising radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murphy, J.F.; Nagorskaya, L.L.; Smith, J.T.

2011-01-01

Littoral (lake shore) macroinvertebrate communities were studied in eight natural lakes affected by fallout from the Chernobyl accident. The lakes spanned a range in 137 Cs contamination from 100 to 15500 kBq m -2 and estimated external dose rates ranged from 0.13 to 30.7 μGy h -1 . General linear models were used to assess whether abundance of individuals, taxon richness, Berger-Parker dominance and Shannon-Wiener diversity varied across the lakes. Step-wise multiple regressions were used to relate variation in total abundance, taxon richness, Berger-Parker dominance, Shannon-Wiener diversity, taxon richness within major groups of macroinvertebrates and abundance of the more common individual taxa to the measured environmental characteristics (conductivity, pH, total hardness and phosphate; lake area, lake maximum depth and total external dose) of the lakes. No evidence was found in this study that the ecological status of lake communities has been influenced by radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl accident. Indeed, the most contaminated lake, Glubokoye, contained the highest richness of aquatic invertebrates. Taxon richness in the eight study lakes varied from 22 (Svyatskoe no. 7) to 42 (Glubokoye) which spans a range typical for uncontaminated lakes in the region. Since 90 Sr is readily-absorbed by Mollusca, estimated dose rates to this group exceeded those for other invertebrate groups in two lakes (Perstok and Glubokoye). However this study found no association between mollusc diversity or abundance of individual snail species and variation between lakes in the external radiation dose. Indeed Glubokoye, the lake most contaminated by 90 Sr, had the highest richness of freshwater snails per sample (an average of 8.9 taxa per sample). - Highlights: → We studied the effect of radiation on macroinvertebrates in Chernobyl affected lakes. → Abundance, taxon richness, Berger-Parker dominance, Shannon-Wiener diversity evaluated. → No relationship between

Landscape Effects on the Presence, Abundance and Diversity of Mosquitoes in Mediterranean Wetlands.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Roiz

Full Text Available Environment determines the distribution of mosquito-borne diseases in that it influences the vector-host-pathogen transmission cycle, including vector distribution, abundance and diversity. In this study, we analyse the relationship between environmental variables estimated by remote sensing and the spatial distribution (presence, abundance and diversity of seven mosquito species vectors of West Nile and other pathogens (Usutu, avian malaria and dirofilariasis in the Doñana Natural Park, Spain. Traps were distributed over an area of 54,984 ha divided into six ecological units: marshland, sand dunes, scrubland, ricefields, crops and fishponds. We collected mosquitoes once a month from up to 112 locations using BG-Sentinel traps baited with BG-lure and CO2 during March-November 2010. Hydroperiod, NDVI and Inundation surface were estimated at several resolution scales (100, 250, 500, 1000 and 2000 metres from corrected and normalized Landsat Images. We sampled 972,346 female mosquitoes, the most abundant species being Culex theileri, Ochlerotatus caspius, Culex modestus, Culex perexiguus, Culex pipiens, Anopheles atroparvus and Ochlerotatus detritus. Our results suggest that: (1 hydroperiod, inundation surface and NDVI are strongly related to the spatial distribution of mosquitoes; (2 the spatial scales used to measure these variables affected quantification of these relationships, the larger scale being more informative; (3 these relationships are species-specific; (4 hydroperiod is negatively related to mosquito presence and richness; (5 Culex abundance is positively related to hydroperiod; (6 NDVI is positively related to mosquito diversity, presence and abundance, except in the case of the two salt marsh species (Oc. caspius and Oc. detritus; and (7 inundation surfaces positively condition the abundance and richness of most species except the salt marsh mosquitoes. Remote sensing data provided reliable information for monitoring mosquito

A test of alternative estimators for volume at time 1 from remeasured point samples

Science.gov (United States)

Francis A. Roesch; Edwin J. Green; Charles T. Scott

1993-01-01

Two estimators for volume at time 1 for use with permanent horizontal point samples are evaluated. One estimator, used traditionally, uses only the trees sampled at time 1, while the second estimator, originally presented by Roesch and coauthors (F.A. Roesch, Jr., E.J. Green, and C.T. Scott. 1989. For. Sci. 35(2):281-293). takes advantage of additional sample...

Turbidity-controlled suspended sediment sampling for runoff-event load estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Jack Lewis

1996-01-01

Abstract - For estimating suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in rivers, turbidity is generally a much better predictor than water discharge. Although it is now possible to collect continuous turbidity data even at remote sites, sediment sampling and load estimation are still conventionally based on discharge. With frequent calibration the relation of turbidity to...

Performance of sampling methods to estimate log characteristics for wildlife.

Science.gov (United States)

Lisa J. Bate; Torolf R. Torgersen; Michael J. Wisdom; Edward O. Garton

2004-01-01

Accurate estimation of the characteristics of log resources, or coarse woody debris (CWD), is critical to effective management of wildlife and other forest resources. Despite the importance of logs as wildlife habitat, methods for sampling logs have traditionally focused on silvicultural and fire applications. These applications have emphasized estimates of log volume...

OXYGEN ABUNDANCES IN CEPHEIDS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luck, R. E.; Andrievsky, S. M.; Korotin, S. N.; Kovtyukh, V. V.

2013-01-01

Oxygen abundances in later-type stars, and intermediate-mass stars in particular, are usually determined from the [O I] line at 630.0 nm, and to a lesser extent, from the O I triplet at 615.7 nm. The near-IR triplets at 777.4 nm and 844.6 nm are strong in these stars and generally do not suffer from severe blending with other species. However, these latter two triplets suffer from strong non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) effects and thus see limited use in abundance analyses. In this paper, we derive oxygen abundances in a large sample of Cepheids using the near-IR triplets from an NLTE analysis, and compare those abundances to values derived from a local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) analysis of the [O I] 630.0 nm line and the O I 615.7 nm triplet as well as LTE abundances for the 777.4 nm triplet. All of these lines suffer from line strength problems making them sensitive to either measurement complications (weak lines) or to line saturation difficulties (strong lines). Upon this realization, the LTE results for the [O I] lines and the O I 615.7 nm triplet are in adequate agreement with the abundance from the NLTE analysis of the near-IR triplets.

The Chemical Abundances of Stars in the Halo (CASH) Project. II. A Sample of 14 Extremely Metal-poor Stars

Science.gov (United States)

Hollek, Julie K.; Frebel, Anna; Roederer, Ian U.; Sneden, Christopher; Shetrone, Matthew; Beers, Timothy C.; Kang, Sung-ju; Thom, Christopher

2011-11-01

We present a comprehensive abundance analysis of 20 elements for 16 new low-metallicity stars from the Chemical Abundances of Stars in the Halo (CASH) project. The abundances have been derived from both Hobby-Eberly Telescope High Resolution Spectrograph snapshot spectra (R ~15, 000) and corresponding high-resolution (R ~35, 000) Magellan Inamori Kyocera Echelle spectra. The stars span a metallicity range from [Fe/H] from -2.9 to -3.9, including four new stars with [Fe/H] ratios with decreasing metallicity. Two of these objects can be classified as CEMP-no stars, adding to the growing number of these objects at [Fe/H]CASH and are used to calibrate a newly developed, automated stellar parameter and abundance determination pipeline. This code will be used for the entire ~500 star CASH snapshot sample. We find that the pipeline results are statistically identical for snapshot spectra when compared to a traditional, manual analysis from a high-resolution spectrum. Based on observations obtained with the Hobby-Eberly Telescope, which is a joint project of the University of Texas at Austin, the Pennsylvania State University, Stanford University, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, and Georg-August-Universität Göttingen. Based on observations gathered with the 6.5 m Magellan Telescopes located at Las Campanas Observatory, Chile.

Estimation of Sensitive Proportion by Randomized Response Data in Successive Sampling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bo Yu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper considers the problem of estimation for binomial proportions of sensitive or stigmatizing attributes in the population of interest. Randomized response techniques are suggested for protecting the privacy of respondents and reducing the response bias while eliciting information on sensitive attributes. In many sensitive question surveys, the same population is often sampled repeatedly on each occasion. In this paper, we apply successive sampling scheme to improve the estimation of the sensitive proportion on current occasion.

Estimating the Effective Sample Size of Tree Topologies from Bayesian Phylogenetic Analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Lanfear, Robert; Hua, Xia; Warren, Dan L.

2016-01-01

Bayesian phylogenetic analyses estimate posterior distributions of phylogenetic tree topologies and other parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Before making inferences from these distributions, it is important to assess their adequacy. To this end, the effective sample size (ESS) estimates how many truly independent samples of a given parameter the output of the MCMC represents. The ESS of a parameter is frequently much lower than the number of samples taken from the MCMC because sequential samples from the chain can be non-independent due to autocorrelation. Typically, phylogeneticists use a rule of thumb that the ESS of all parameters should be greater than 200. However, we have no method to calculate an ESS of tree topology samples, despite the fact that the tree topology is often the parameter of primary interest and is almost always central to the estimation of other parameters. That is, we lack a method to determine whether we have adequately sampled one of the most important parameters in our analyses. In this study, we address this problem by developing methods to estimate the ESS for tree topologies. We combine these methods with two new diagnostic plots for assessing posterior samples of tree topologies, and compare their performance on simulated and empirical data sets. Combined, the methods we present provide new ways to assess the mixing and convergence of phylogenetic tree topologies in Bayesian MCMC analyses. PMID:27435794

Sampling designs and methods for estimating fish-impingement losses at cooling-water intakes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murarka, I.P.; Bodeau, D.J.

1977-01-01

Several systems for estimating fish impingement at power plant cooling-water intakes are compared to determine the most statistically efficient sampling designs and methods. Compared to a simple random sampling scheme the stratified systematic random sampling scheme, the systematic random sampling scheme, and the stratified random sampling scheme yield higher efficiencies and better estimators for the parameters in two models of fish impingement as a time-series process. Mathematical results and illustrative examples of the applications of the sampling schemes to simulated and real data are given. Some sampling designs applicable to fish-impingement studies are presented in appendixes

Empirically simulated study to compare and validate sampling methods used in aerial surveys of wildlife populations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Khaemba, W.M.; Stein, A.; Rasch, D.; Leeuw, de J.; Georgiadis, N.

2001-01-01

This paper compares the distribution, sampling and estimation of abundance for two animal species in an African ecosystem by means of an intensive simulation of the sampling process under a geographical information system (GIS) environment. It focuses on systematic and random sampling designs,

Challenges of transferring models of fish abundance between coral reefs.

Science.gov (United States)

Sequeira, Ana M M; Mellin, Camille; Lozano-Montes, Hector M; Meeuwig, Jessica J; Vanderklift, Mathew A; Haywood, Michael D E; Babcock, Russell C; Caley, M Julian

2018-01-01

Reliable abundance estimates for species are fundamental in ecology, fisheries, and conservation. Consequently, predictive models able to provide reliable estimates for un- or poorly-surveyed locations would prove a valuable tool for management. Based on commonly used environmental and physical predictors, we developed predictive models of total fish abundance and of abundance by fish family for ten representative taxonomic families for the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) using multiple temporal scenarios. We then tested if models developed for the GBR (reference system) could predict fish abundances at Ningaloo Reef (NR; target system), i.e., if these GBR models could be successfully transferred to NR. Models of abundance by fish family resulted in improved performance (e.g., 44.1% fish abundance (9% fish species richness from the GBR to NR, transferability for these fish abundance models was poor. When compared with observations of fish abundance collected in NR, our transferability results had low validation scores ( R 2   0.05). High spatio-temporal variability of patterns in fish abundance at the family and population levels in both reef systems likely affected the transferability of these models. Inclusion of additional predictors with potential direct effects on abundance, such as local fishing effort or topographic complexity, may improve transferability of fish abundance models. However, observations of these local-scale predictors are often not available, and might thereby hinder studies on model transferability and its usefulness for conservation planning and management.

A 172 $\\mu$W Compressively Sampled Photoplethysmographic (PPG) Readout ASIC With Heart Rate Estimation Directly From Compressively Sampled Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Pamula, Venkata Rajesh; Valero-Sarmiento, Jose Manuel; Yan, Long; Bozkurt, Alper; Hoof, Chris Van; Helleputte, Nick Van; Yazicioglu, Refet Firat; Verhelst, Marian

2017-06-01

A compressive sampling (CS) photoplethysmographic (PPG) readout with embedded feature extraction to estimate heart rate (HR) directly from compressively sampled data is presented. It integrates a low-power analog front end together with a digital back end to perform feature extraction to estimate the average HR over a 4 s interval directly from compressively sampled PPG data. The application-specified integrated circuit (ASIC) supports uniform sampling mode (1x compression) as well as CS modes with compression ratios of 8x, 10x, and 30x. CS is performed through nonuniformly subsampling the PPG signal, while feature extraction is performed using least square spectral fitting through Lomb-Scargle periodogram. The ASIC consumes 172  μ W of power from a 1.2 V supply while reducing the relative LED driver power consumption by up to 30 times without significant loss of relevant information for accurate HR estimation.

Estimating black bear density in New Mexico using noninvasive genetic sampling coupled with spatially explicit capture-recapture methods

Science.gov (United States)

Gould, Matthew J.; Cain, James W.; Roemer, Gary W.; Gould, William R.

2016-01-01

During the 2004–2005 to 2015–2016 hunting seasons, the New Mexico Department of Game and Fish (NMDGF) estimated black bear abundance (Ursus americanus) across the state by coupling density estimates with the distribution of primary habitat generated by Costello et al. (2001). These estimates have been used to set harvest limits. For example, a density of 17 bears/100 km2 for the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains and 13.2 bears/100 km2 for the Sandia Mountains were used to set harvest levels. The advancement and widespread acceptance of non-invasive sampling and mark-recapture methods, prompted the NMDGF to collaborate with the New Mexico Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit and New Mexico State University to update their density estimates for black bear populations in select mountain ranges across the state.We established 5 study areas in 3 mountain ranges: the northern (NSC; sampled in 2012) and southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains (SSC; sampled in 2013), the Sandia Mountains (Sandias; sampled in 2014), and the northern (NSacs) and southern Sacramento Mountains (SSacs; both sampled in 2014). We collected hair samples from black bears using two concurrent non-invasive sampling methods, hair traps and bear rubs. We used a gender marker and a suite of microsatellite loci to determine the individual identification of hair samples that were suitable for genetic analysis. We used these data to generate mark-recapture encounter histories for each bear and estimated density in a spatially explicit capture-recapture framework (SECR). We constructed a suite of SECR candidate models using sex, elevation, land cover type, and time to model heterogeneity in detection probability and the spatial scale over which detection probability declines. We used Akaike’s Information Criterion corrected for small sample size (AICc) to rank and select the most supported model from which we estimated density.We set 554 hair traps, 117 bear rubs and collected 4,083 hair

FLUORINE ABUNDANCES OF GALACTIC LOW-METALLICITY GIANTS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, H. N.; Zhao, G. [Key Lab of Optical Astronomy, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, A20 Datun Road, Chaoyang, Beijing 100012 (China); Ludwig, H.-G.; Caffau, E.; Christlieb, N., E-mail: lhn@nao.cas.cn, E-mail: gzhao@nao.cas.cn, E-mail: hludwig@lsw.uni-heidelberg.de, E-mail: ecaffau@lsw.uni-heidelberg.de, E-mail: N.Christlieb@lsw.uni-heidelberg.de [Zentrum fuer Astronomie der Universitaet Heidelberg, Landessternwarte, Koenigstuhl 12, D-69117 Heidelberg (Germany)

2013-03-01

With abundances and 2{sigma} upper limits of fluorine (F) in seven metal-poor field giants, nucleosynthesis of stellar F at low metallicity is discussed. The measurements are derived from the HF(1-0) R9 line at 23358 A using near-infrared K-band high-resolution spectra obtained with CRIRES at the Very Large Telescope. The sample reaches lower metallicities than previous studies on F of field giants, ranging from [Fe/H] = -1.56 down to -2.13. Effects of three-dimensional model atmospheres on the derived F and O abundances are quantitatively estimated and shown to be insignificant for the program stars. The observed F yield in the form of [F/O] is compared with two sets of Galactic chemical evolution models, which quantitatively demonstrate the contribution of Type II supernova (SN II) {nu}-process and asymptotic giant branch/Wolf-Rayet stars. It is found that at this low-metallicity region, models cannot well predict the observed distribution of [F/O], while the observations are better fit by models considering an SN II {nu}-process with a neutrino energy of E {sub {nu}} = 3 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 53} erg. Our sample contains HD 110281, a retrograde orbiting low-{alpha} halo star, showing a similar F evolution as globular clusters. This supports the theory that such halo stars are possibly accreted from dwarf galaxy progenitors of globular clusters in the halo.

SWFSC/MMTD: Vaquita Abundance Survey 1997

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — In 1997, the Southwest Fisheries Science Center (SWFSC) conducted a survey designed to estimate the abundance of vaquita, the Gulf of California harbor porpoise...

Sample size for estimation of the Pearson correlation coefficient in cherry tomato tests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bruno Giacomini Sari

2017-09-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT: The aim of this study was to determine the required sample size for estimation of the Pearson coefficient of correlation between cherry tomato variables. Two uniformity tests were set up in a protected environment in the spring/summer of 2014. The observed variables in each plant were mean fruit length, mean fruit width, mean fruit weight, number of bunches, number of fruits per bunch, number of fruits, and total weight of fruits, with calculation of the Pearson correlation matrix between them. Sixty eight sample sizes were planned for one greenhouse and 48 for another, with the initial sample size of 10 plants, and the others were obtained by adding five plants. For each planned sample size, 3000 estimates of the Pearson correlation coefficient were obtained through bootstrap re-samplings with replacement. The sample size for each correlation coefficient was determined when the 95% confidence interval amplitude value was less than or equal to 0.4. Obtaining estimates of the Pearson correlation coefficient with high precision is difficult for parameters with a weak linear relation. Accordingly, a larger sample size is necessary to estimate them. Linear relations involving variables dealing with size and number of fruits per plant have less precision. To estimate the coefficient of correlation between productivity variables of cherry tomato, with a confidence interval of 95% equal to 0.4, it is necessary to sample 275 plants in a 250m² greenhouse, and 200 plants in a 200m² greenhouse.

Evaluation of alternative age-based methods for estimating relative abundance from survey data in relation to assessment models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berg, Casper Willestofte; Nielsen, Anders; Kristensen, Kasper

2014-01-01

Indices of abundance from fishery-independent trawl surveys constitute an important source of information for many fish stock assessments. Indices are often calculated using area stratified sample means on age-disaggregated data, and finally treated in stock assessment models as independent...... observations. We evaluate a series of alternative methods for calculating indices of abundance from trawl survey data (delta-lognormal, delta-gamma, and Tweedie using Generalized Additive Models) as well as different error structures for these indices when used as input in an age-based stock assessment model...... the different indices produced. The stratified mean method is found much more imprecise than the alternatives based on GAMs, which are found to be similar. Having time-varying index variances is found to be of minor importance, whereas the independence assumption is not only violated but has significant impact...

Fixed-location hydroacoustic monitoring designs for estimating fish passage using stratified random and systematic sampling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skalski, J.R.; Hoffman, A.; Ransom, B.H.; Steig, T.W.

1993-01-01

Five alternate sampling designs are compared using 15 d of 24-h continuous hydroacoustic data to identify the most favorable approach to fixed-location hydroacoustic monitoring of salmonid outmigrants. Four alternative aproaches to systematic sampling are compared among themselves and with stratified random sampling (STRS). Stratifying systematic sampling (STSYS) on a daily basis is found to reduce sampling error in multiday monitoring studies. Although sampling precision was predictable with varying levels of effort in STRS, neither magnitude nor direction of change in precision was predictable when effort was varied in systematic sampling (SYS). Furthermore, modifying systematic sampling to include replicated (e.g., nested) sampling (RSYS) is further shown to provide unbiased point and variance estimates as does STRS. Numerous short sampling intervals (e.g., 12 samples of 1-min duration per hour) must be monitored hourly using RSYS to provide efficient, unbiased point and interval estimates. For equal levels of effort, STRS outperformed all variations of SYS examined. Parametric approaches to confidence interval estimates are found to be superior to nonparametric interval estimates (i.e., bootstrap and jackknife) in estimating total fish passage. 10 refs., 1 fig., 8 tabs

Subdwarf ultraviolet excesses and metal abundances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carney, B.W.

1979-01-01

The relation between stellar ultraviolet excesses and abundances is reexamined with the aid of new data, and an investigation is made of the accuracy of previous abundance analyses. A high-resolution echellogram of the subdwarf HD 201891 is analyzed to illustrate some of the problems. Generally, the earliest and latest analytical techniques yield consistent results for dwarfs. New UBV data yield normalized ultraviolet excesses, delta (U-B)/sub 0.6/, which are compared to abundances to produce a graphical relation that may be used to estimate [Fe/H] to +- 0.2 dex, given UBV colors accurate to +- 0.01 mag. The relation suggests a possible discontinuity between the halo and old-disk stars

On the choice of statistical models for estimating occurrence and extinction from animal surveys

Science.gov (United States)

Dorazio, R.M.

2007-01-01

In surveys of natural animal populations the number of animals that are present and available to be detected at a sample location is often low, resulting in few or no detections. Low detection frequencies are especially common in surveys of imperiled species; however, the choice of sampling method and protocol also may influence the size of the population that is vulnerable to detection. In these circumstances, probabilities of animal occurrence and extinction will generally be estimated more accurately if the models used in data analysis account for differences in abundance among sample locations and for the dependence between site-specific abundance and detection. Simulation experiments are used to illustrate conditions wherein these types of models can be expected to outperform alternative estimators of population site occupancy and extinction. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Detecting novel low-abundant transcripts in Drosophila

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lee, Sanggyu; Bao, Jingyue; Zhou, Guolin

2005-01-01

Increasing evidence suggests that low-abundant transcripts may play fundamental roles in biological processes. In an attempt to estimate the prevalence of low-abundant transcripts in eukaryotic genomes, we performed a transcriptome analysis in Drosophila using the SAGE technique. We collected 244......,313 SAGE tags from transcripts expressed in Drosophila embryonic, larval, pupae, adult, and testicular tissue. From these SAGE tags, we identified 40,823 unique SAGE tags. Our analysis showed that 55% of the 40,823 unique SAGE tags are novel without matches in currently known Drosophila transcripts...... in the Drosophila genome. Our study reveals the presence of a significant number of novel low-abundant transcripts in Drosophila, and highlights the need to isolate these novel low-abundant transcripts for further biological studies. Udgivelsesdato: 2005-Jun...

Accurate Frequency Estimation Based On Three-Parameter Sine-Fitting With Three FFT Samples

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liu Xin

2015-09-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a simple DFT-based golden section searching algorithm (DGSSA for the single tone frequency estimation. Because of truncation and discreteness in signal samples, Fast Fourier Transform (FFT and Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT are inevitable to cause the spectrum leakage and fence effect which lead to a low estimation accuracy. This method can improve the estimation accuracy under conditions of a low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR and a low resolution. This method firstly uses three FFT samples to determine the frequency searching scope, then – besides the frequency – the estimated values of amplitude, phase and dc component are obtained by minimizing the least square (LS fitting error of three-parameter sine fitting. By setting reasonable stop conditions or the number of iterations, the accurate frequency estimation can be realized. The accuracy of this method, when applied to observed single-tone sinusoid samples corrupted by white Gaussian noise, is investigated by different methods with respect to the unbiased Cramer-Rao Low Bound (CRLB. The simulation results show that the root mean square error (RMSE of the frequency estimation curve is consistent with the tendency of CRLB as SNR increases, even in the case of a small number of samples. The average RMSE of the frequency estimation is less than 1.5 times the CRLB with SNR = 20 dB and N = 512.

Estimates and sampling schemes for the instrumentation of accountability systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jewell, W.S.; Kwiatkowski, J.W.

1976-10-01

The problem of estimation of a physical quantity from a set of measurements is considered, where the measurements are made on samples with a hierarchical error structure, and where within-groups error variances may vary from group to group at each level of the structure; minimum mean squared-error estimators are developed, and the case where the physical quantity is a random variable with known prior mean and variance is included. Estimators for the error variances are also given, and optimization of experimental design is considered

Increasing fMRI sampling rate improves Granger causality estimates.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fa-Hsuan Lin

Full Text Available Estimation of causal interactions between brain areas is necessary for elucidating large-scale functional brain networks underlying behavior and cognition. Granger causality analysis of time series data can quantitatively estimate directional information flow between brain regions. Here, we show that such estimates are significantly improved when the temporal sampling rate of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI is increased 20-fold. Specifically, healthy volunteers performed a simple visuomotor task during blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD contrast based whole-head inverse imaging (InI. Granger causality analysis based on raw InI BOLD data sampled at 100-ms resolution detected the expected causal relations, whereas when the data were downsampled to the temporal resolution of 2 s typically used in echo-planar fMRI, the causality could not be detected. An additional control analysis, in which we SINC interpolated additional data points to the downsampled time series at 0.1-s intervals, confirmed that the improvements achieved with the real InI data were not explainable by the increased time-series length alone. We therefore conclude that the high-temporal resolution of InI improves the Granger causality connectivity analysis of the human brain.

Exploring the 13CO/C18O abundance ratio towards Galactic young stellar objects and HII regions

Science.gov (United States)

Areal, M. B.; Paron, S.; Celis Peña, M.; Ortega, M. E.

2018-05-01

Aims: Determining molecular abundance ratios is important not only for the study of Galactic chemistry, but also because they are useful to estimate physical parameters in a large variety of interstellar medium environments. One of the most important molecules for tracing the molecular gas in the interstellar medium is CO, and the 13CO/C18O abundance ratio is usually used to estimate molecular masses and densities of regions with moderate to high densities. Nowadays isotope ratios are in general indirectly derived from elemental abundances ratios. We present the first 13CO/C18O abundance ratio study performed from CO isotope observations towards a large sample of Galactic sources of different natures at different locations. Methods: To study the 13CO/C18O abundance ratio, we used 12CO J = 3 - 2 data obtained from the CO High-Resolution Survey, 13CO and C18O J = 3 - 2 data from the 13CO/C18O (J = 3 - 2) Heterodyne Inner Milky Way Plane Survey, and some complementary data extracted from the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope database. We analyzed a sample of 198 sources composed of young stellar objects (YSOs), and HII and diffuse HII regions as catalogued in the Red MSX Source Survey in 27.°5 ≤ l ≤ 46.°5 and |b|0.°5. Results: Most of the analyzed sources are located in the galactocentric distance range 4.0-6.5 kpc. We found that YSOs have, on average, lower 13CO/C18O abundance ratios than HII and diffuse HII regions. Taking into account that the gas associated with YSOs should be less affected by the radiation than in the case of the others sources, selective far-UV photodissociation of C18O is confirmed. The 13CO/C18O abundance ratios obtained in this work are systematically lower than those predicted from the known elemental abundance relations. These results will be useful in future studies of molecular gas related to YSOs and HII regions based on the observation of these isotopes.

NEUTRON-CAPTURE ELEMENT ABUNDANCES IN MAGELLANIC CLOUD PLANETARY NEBULAE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mashburn, A. L.; Sterling, N. C. [Department of Physics, University of West Georgia, 1601 Maple Street, Carrollton, GA 30118 (United States); Madonna, S. [Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias, Departamento Astrofísica, Universidad de La Laguna, E-38206 La Laguna, Tenerife (Spain); Dinerstein, Harriet L. [Department of Astronomy, University of Texas, 2515 Speedway, C1400, Austin, TX 78712-1205 (United States); Roederer, I. U. [Department of Astronomy, University of Michigan, 1085 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Geballe, T. R., E-mail: awhite15@my.westga.edu, E-mail: nsterlin@westga.edu, E-mail: smadonna@iac.es, E-mail: harriet@astro.as.utexas.edu, E-mail: iur@umich.edu, E-mail: tgeballe@gemini.edu [Gemini Observatory, 670 N. A’ohoku Place, Hilo, HI 96720 (United States)

2016-11-01

We present near-infrared spectra of 10 planetary nebulae (PNe) in the Large and Small Magellanic Clouds (LMC and SMC), acquired with the FIRE and GNIRS spectrometers on the 6.5 m Baade and 8.1 m Gemini South Telescopes, respectively. We detect Se and/or Kr emission lines in eight of these objects, the first detections of n -capture elements in Magellanic Cloud PNe. Our abundance analysis shows large s -process enrichments of Kr (0.6–1.3 dex) in the six PNe in which it was detected, and Se is enriched by 0.5–0.9 dex in five objects. We also estimate upper limits to Rb and Cd abundances in these objects. Our abundance results for the LMC are consistent with the hypothesis that PNe with 2–3 M {sub ⊙} progenitors dominate the bright end of the PN luminosity function in young gas-rich galaxies. We find no significant correlations between s -process enrichments and other elemental abundances, central star temperature, or progenitor mass, though this is likely due to our small sample size. We determine S abundances from our spectra and find that [S/H] agrees with [Ar/H] to within 0.2 dex for most objects, but is lower than [O/H] by 0.2–0.4 dex in some PNe, possibly due to O enrichment via third dredge-up. Our results demonstrate that n -capture elements can be detected in PNe belonging to nearby galaxies with ground-based telescopes, allowing s -process enrichments to be studied in PN populations with well-determined distances.

Clustering in the stellar abundance space

Science.gov (United States)

Boesso, R.; Rocha-Pinto, H. J.

2018-03-01

We have studied the chemical enrichment history of the interstellar medium through an analysis of the n-dimensional stellar abundance space. This work is a non-parametric analysis of the stellar chemical abundance space. The main goal is to study the stars from their organization within this abundance space. Within this space, we seek to find clusters (in a statistical sense), that is, stars likely to share similar chemo-evolutionary history, using two methods: the hierarchical clustering and the principal component analysis. We analysed some selected abundance surveys available in the literature. For each sample, we labelled the group of stars according to its average abundance curve. In all samples, we identify the existence of a main enrichment pattern of the stars, which we call chemical enrichment flow. This flow is set by the structured and well-defined mean rate at which the abundances of the interstellar medium increase, resulting from the mixture of the material ejected from the stars and stellar mass-loss and interstellar medium gas. One of the main results of our analysis is the identification of subgroups of stars with peculiar chemistry. These stars are situated in regions outside of the enrichment flow in the abundance space. These peculiar stars show a mismatch in the enrichment rate of a few elements, such as Mg, Si, Sc and V, when compared to the mean enrichment rate of the other elements of the same stars. We believe that the existence of these groups of stars with peculiar chemistry may be related to the accretion of planetary material on to stellar surfaces or may be due to production of the same chemical element by different nucleosynthetic sites.

Zinc estimates in ore and slag samples and analysis of ash in coal samples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Umamaheswara Rao, K.; Narayana, D.G.S.; Subrahmanyam, Y.

1984-01-01

Zinc estimates in ore and slag samples were made using the radioisotope X-ray fluorescence method. A 10 mCi 238 Pu was employed as the primary source of radiation and a thin crystal NaI(Ti) spectrometer was used to accomplish the detection of the 8.64 keV Zinc K-characteristic X-ray line. The results are reported. Ash content of coal concerning about 100 samples from Ravindra Khani VI and VII mines in Andhra Pradesh were measured using X-ray backscattering method with compensation for varying concentrations of iron in different coal samples through iron-X-ray fluorescent intensity measurements. The ash percent is found to range from 10 to 40. (author)

Estimation and Bias Correction of Aerosol Abundance using Data-driven Machine Learning and Remote Sensing

Science.gov (United States)

Malakar, Nabin K.; Lary, D. L.; Moore, A.; Gencaga, D.; Roscoe, B.; Albayrak, Arif; Petrenko, Maksym; Wei, Jennifer

2012-01-01

Air quality information is increasingly becoming a public health concern, since some of the aerosol particles pose harmful effects to peoples health. One widely available metric of aerosol abundance is the aerosol optical depth (AOD). The AOD is the integrated light extinction coefficient over a vertical atmospheric column of unit cross section, which represents the extent to which the aerosols in that vertical profile prevent the transmission of light by absorption or scattering. The comparison between the AOD measured from the ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) system and the satellite MODIS instruments at 550 nm shows that there is a bias between the two data products. We performed a comprehensive analysis exploring possible factors which may be contributing to the inter-instrumental bias between MODIS and AERONET. The analysis used several measured variables, including the MODIS AOD, as input in order to train a neural network in regression mode to predict the AERONET AOD values. This not only allowed us to obtain an estimate, but also allowed us to infer the optimal sets of variables that played an important role in the prediction. In addition, we applied machine learning to infer the global abundance of ground level PM2.5 from the AOD data and other ancillary satellite and meteorology products. This research is part of our goal to provide air quality information, which can also be useful for global epidemiology studies.

Estimation of sample size and testing power (Part 3).

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Liang-ping; Bao, Xiao-lei; Guan, Xue; Zhou, Shi-guo

2011-12-01

This article introduces the definition and sample size estimation of three special tests (namely, non-inferiority test, equivalence test and superiority test) for qualitative data with the design of one factor with two levels having a binary response variable. Non-inferiority test refers to the research design of which the objective is to verify that the efficacy of the experimental drug is not clinically inferior to that of the positive control drug. Equivalence test refers to the research design of which the objective is to verify that the experimental drug and the control drug have clinically equivalent efficacy. Superiority test refers to the research design of which the objective is to verify that the efficacy of the experimental drug is clinically superior to that of the control drug. By specific examples, this article introduces formulas of sample size estimation for the three special tests, and their SAS realization in detail.

Graph Sampling for Covariance Estimation

KAUST Repository

Chepuri, Sundeep Prabhakar

2017-04-25

In this paper the focus is on subsampling as well as reconstructing the second-order statistics of signals residing on nodes of arbitrary undirected graphs. Second-order stationary graph signals may be obtained by graph filtering zero-mean white noise and they admit a well-defined power spectrum whose shape is determined by the frequency response of the graph filter. Estimating the graph power spectrum forms an important component of stationary graph signal processing and related inference tasks such as Wiener prediction or inpainting on graphs. The central result of this paper is that by sampling a significantly smaller subset of vertices and using simple least squares, we can reconstruct the second-order statistics of the graph signal from the subsampled observations, and more importantly, without any spectral priors. To this end, both a nonparametric approach as well as parametric approaches including moving average and autoregressive models for the graph power spectrum are considered. The results specialize for undirected circulant graphs in that the graph nodes leading to the best compression rates are given by the so-called minimal sparse rulers. A near-optimal greedy algorithm is developed to design the subsampling scheme for the non-parametric and the moving average models, whereas a particular subsampling scheme that allows linear estimation for the autoregressive model is proposed. Numerical experiments on synthetic as well as real datasets related to climatology and processing handwritten digits are provided to demonstrate the developed theory.

Modeling abundance using N-mixture models: the importance of considering ecological mechanisms.

Science.gov (United States)

Joseph, Liana N; Elkin, Ché; Martin, Tara G; Possinghami, Hugh P

2009-04-01

Predicting abundance across a species' distribution is useful for studies of ecology and biodiversity management. Modeling of survey data in relation to environmental variables can be a powerful method for extrapolating abundances across a species' distribution and, consequently, calculating total abundances and ultimately trends. Research in this area has demonstrated that models of abundance are often unstable and produce spurious estimates, and until recently our ability to remove detection error limited the development of accurate models. The N-mixture model accounts for detection and abundance simultaneously and has been a significant advance in abundance modeling. Case studies that have tested these new models have demonstrated success for some species, but doubt remains over the appropriateness of standard N-mixture models for many species. Here we develop the N-mixture model to accommodate zero-inflated data, a common occurrence in ecology, by employing zero-inflated count models. To our knowledge, this is the first application of this method to modeling count data. We use four variants of the N-mixture model (Poisson, zero-inflated Poisson, negative binomial, and zero-inflated negative binomial) to model abundance, occupancy (zero-inflated models only) and detection probability of six birds in South Australia. We assess models by their statistical fit and the ecological realism of the parameter estimates. Specifically, we assess the statistical fit with AIC and assess the ecological realism by comparing the parameter estimates with expected values derived from literature, ecological theory, and expert opinion. We demonstrate that, despite being frequently ranked the "best model" according to AIC, the negative binomial variants of the N-mixture often produce ecologically unrealistic parameter estimates. The zero-inflated Poisson variant is preferable to the negative binomial variants of the N-mixture, as it models an ecological mechanism rather than a

Thresholds in the response of free-floating plant abundance to variation in hydraulic connectivity, nutrients, and macrophyte abundance in a large floodplain river

Science.gov (United States)

Giblin, Shawn M.; Houser, Jeffrey N.; Sullivan, John F.; Langrehr, H.A.; Rogala, James T.; Campbell, Benjamin D.

2014-01-01

Duckweed and other free-floating plants (FFP) can form dense surface mats that affect ecosystem condition and processes, and can impair public use of aquatic resources. FFP obtain their nutrients from the water column, and the formation of dense FFP mats can be a consequence and indicator of river eutrophication. We conducted two complementary surveys of diverse aquatic areas of the Upper Mississippi River as an in situ approach for estimating thresholds in the response of FFP abundance to nutrient concentration and physical conditions in a large, floodplain river. Local regression analysis was used to estimate thresholds in the relations between FFP abundance and phosphorus (P) concentration (0.167 mg l−1L), nitrogen (N) concentration (0.808 mg l−1), water velocity (0.095 m s−1), and aquatic macrophyte abundance (65 % cover). FFP tissue concentrations suggested P limitation was more likely in spring, N limitation was more likely in late summer, and N limitation was most likely in backwaters with minimal hydraulic connection to the channel. The thresholds estimated here, along with observed patterns in nutrient limitation, provide river scientists and managers with criteria to consider when attempting to modify FFP abundance in off-channel areas of large river systems.

Spatio-temporal Variations of Abundance, Biomass, and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The spatio-seasonal variations of Pseudodiaptomus hessei abundance, biomass and reproductive parameters were investigated in the Grand-Lahou lagoon at five stations during the dry and wet (or rainy) seasons from September 2005 to August 2006. In all sampling stations, abundance and biomass of P. hessei in the dry ...

Abundant Solar Nebula Solids in Comets

Science.gov (United States)

Messenger, S.; Keller, L. P.; Nakamura-Messenger, K.; Nguyen, A. N.; Clemett, S.

2016-01-01

Comets have been proposed to consist of unprocessed interstellar materials together with a variable amount of thermally annealed interstellar grains. Recent studies of cometary solids in the laboratory have shown that comets instead consist of a wide range of materials from across the protoplanetary disk, in addition to a minor complement of interstellar materials. These advances were made possible by the return of direct samples of comet 81P/Wild 2 coma dust by the NASA Stardust mission and recent advances in microscale analytical techniques. Isotopic studies of 'cometary' chondritic porous interplanetary dust particles (CP-IDPs) and comet 81P/Wild 2 Stardust samples show that preserved interstellar materials are more abundant in comets than in any class of meteorite. Identified interstellar materials include sub-micron-sized presolar silicates, oxides, and SiC dust grains and some fraction of the organic material that binds the samples together. Presolar grain abundances reach 1 weight percentage in the most stardust-rich CP-IDPs, 50 times greater than in meteorites. Yet, order of magnitude variations in presolar grain abundances among CP-IDPs suggest cometary solids experienced significant variations in the degree of processing in the solar nebula. Comets contain a surprisingly high abundance of nebular solids formed or altered at high temperatures. Comet 81P/Wild 2 samples include 10-40 micron-sized, refractory Ca- Al-rich inclusion (CAI)-, chondrule-, and ameboid olivine aggregate (AOA)-like materials. The O isotopic compositions of these refractory materials are remarkably similar to their meteoritic counterparts, ranging from 5 percent enrichments in (sup 16) O to near-terrestrial values. Comet 81P/Wild 2 and CP-IDPs also contain abundant Mg-Fe crystalline and amorphous silicates whose O isotopic compositions are also consistent with Solar System origins. Unlike meteorites, that are dominated by locally-produced materials, comets appear to be composed of

"Capture" Me if You Can: Estimating Abundance of Dolphin Populations

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Jessica; Curran, Mary Carla; Cox, Tara

2016-01-01

Animal populations are monitored over time to assess the effects of environmental disaster and disease, as well as the efficacy of laws designed to protect them. Determining the abundance of a species within a defined area is one method of monitoring a population. In "Capture" Me if You Can, middle school students will use data collected…

Internal Variations in Empirical Oxygen Abundances for Giant H II Regions in the Galaxy NGC 2403

Science.gov (United States)

Mao, Ye-Wei; Lin, Lin; Kong, Xu

2018-02-01

This paper presents a spectroscopic investigation of 11 {{H}} {{II}} regions in the nearby galaxy NGC 2403. The {{H}} {{II}} regions are observed with a long-slit spectrograph mounted on the 2.16 m telescope at XingLong station of National Astronomical Observatories of China. For each of the {{H}} {{II}} regions, spectra are extracted at different nebular radii along the slit-coverage. Oxygen abundances are empirically estimated from the strong-line indices R23, N2O2, O3N2, and N2 for each spectrophotometric unit, with both observation- and model-based calibrations adopted into the derivation. Radial profiles of these diversely estimated abundances are drawn for each nebula. In the results, the oxygen abundances separately estimated with the prescriptions on the basis of observations and models, albeit from the same spectral index, systematically deviate from each other; at the same time, the spectral indices R23 and N2O2 are distributed with flat profiles, whereas N2 and O3N2 exhibit apparent gradients with the nebular radius. Because our study naturally samples various ionization levels, which inherently decline at larger radii within individual {{H}} {{II}} regions, the radial distributions indicate not only the robustness of R23 and N2O2 against ionization variations but also the sensitivity of N2 and O3N2 to the ionization parameter. The results in this paper provide observational corroboration of the theoretical prediction about the deviation in the empirical abundance diagnostics. Our future work is planned to investigate metal-poor {{H}} {{II}} regions with measurable T e, in an attempt to recalibrate the strong-line indices and consequently disclose the cause of the discrepancies between the empirical oxygen abundances.

Infusion and sampling site effects on two-pool model estimates of leucine metabolism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helland, S.J.; Grisdale-Helland, B.; Nissen, S.

1988-01-01

To assess the effect of site of isotope infusion on estimates of leucine metabolism infusions of alpha-[4,5-3H]ketoisocaproate (KIC) and [U- 14 C]leucine were made into the left or right ventricles of sheep and pigs. Blood was sampled from the opposite ventricle. In both species, left ventricular infusions resulted in significantly lower specific radioactivities (SA) of [ 14 C]leucine and [ 3 H]KIC. [ 14 C]KIC SA was found to be insensitive to infusion and sampling sites. [ 14 C]KIC was in addition found to be equal to the SA of [ 14 C]leucine only during the left heart infusions. Therefore, [ 14 C]KIC SA was used as the only estimate for [ 14 C]SA in the equations for the two-pool model. This model eliminated the influence of site of infusion and blood sampling on the estimates for leucine entry and reduced the impact on the estimates for proteolysis and oxidation. This two-pool model could not compensate for the underestimation of transamination reactions occurring during the traditional venous isotope infusion and arterial blood sampling

Lunar mare TiO2 abundances estimated from UV/Vis reflectance

Science.gov (United States)

Sato, Hiroyuki; Robinson, Mark S.; Lawrence, Samuel J.; Denevi, Brett W.; Hapke, Bruce; Jolliff, Bradley L.; Hiesinger, Harald

2017-11-01

The visible (400-700 nm) and near-infrared (700-2800 nm) reflectance of the lunar regolith is dominantly controlled by variations in the abundance of plagioclase, iron-bearing silicate minerals, opaque minerals (e.g., ilmenite), and maturation products (e.g., agglutinate glass, radiation-produced rims on soil grains, and Fe-metal). The same materials control reflectance into the near-UV (250-400 nm) with varying degrees of importance. A key difference is that while ilmenite is spectrally neutral in the visible to near-infrared, it exhibits a diagnostic upturn in reflectance in the near-UV, at wavelengths shorter than about 450 nm. The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Wide Angle Camera (WAC) filters were specifically designed to take advantage of this spectral feature to enable more accurate mapping of ilmenite within mare soils than previously possible. Using the reflectance measured at 321 and 415 nm during 62 months of repeated near-global WAC observations, first we found a linear correlation between the TiO2 contents of the lunar soil samples and the 321/415 nm ratio of each sample return site. We then used the coefficients from the linear regression and the near-global WAC multispectral mosaic to derive a new TiO2 map. The average TiO2 content is 3.9 wt% for the 17 major maria. The highest TiO2 values were found in Mare Tranquillitatis (∼12.6 wt%) and Oceanus Procellarum (∼11.6 wt%). Regions contaminated by highland ejecta, lunar swirls, and the low-TiO2 maria (e.g., Mare Frigoris, the northeastern units of Mare Imbrium) exhibit very low TiO2 values (2.6 Ga), whereas only medium to high TiO2 values (average = 6.8 wt%, minimum = 4.5 wt%) are found for younger mare units (<2.6 Ga).

Abundance and survival rates of the Hawai'i Island associated spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris stock.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julian A Tyne

Full Text Available Reliable population estimates are critical to implement effective management strategies. The Hawai'i Island spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris is a genetically distinct stock that displays a rigid daily behavioural pattern, foraging offshore at night and resting in sheltered bays during the day. Consequently, they are exposed to frequent human interactions and disturbance. We estimated population parameters of this spinner dolphin stock using a systematic sampling design and capture-recapture models. From September 2010 to August 2011, boat-based photo-identification surveys were undertaken monthly over 132 days (>1,150 hours of effort; >100,000 dorsal fin images in the four main resting bays along the Kona Coast, Hawai'i Island. All images were graded according to photographic quality and distinctiveness. Over 32,000 images were included in the analyses, from which 607 distinctive individuals were catalogued and 214 were highly distinctive. Two independent estimates of the proportion of highly distinctive individuals in the population were not significantly different (p = 0.68. Individual heterogeneity and time variation in capture probabilities were strongly indicated for these data; therefore capture-recapture models allowing for these variations were used. The estimated annual apparent survival rate (product of true survival and permanent emigration was 0.97 SE ± 0.05. Open and closed capture-recapture models for the highly distinctive individuals photographed at least once each month produced similar abundance estimates. An estimate of 221 ± 4.3 SE highly distinctive spinner dolphins, resulted in a total abundance of 631 ± 60.1 SE, (95% CI 524-761 spinner dolphins in the Hawai'i Island stock, which is lower than previous estimates. When this abundance estimate is considered alongside the rigid daily behavioural pattern, genetic distinctiveness, and the ease of human access to spinner dolphins in their preferred resting habitats, this

The impact of fecal sample processing on prevalence estimates for antibiotic-resistant Escherichia coli.

Science.gov (United States)

Omulo, Sylvia; Lofgren, Eric T; Mugoh, Maina; Alando, Moshe; Obiya, Joshua; Kipyegon, Korir; Kikwai, Gilbert; Gumbi, Wilson; Kariuki, Samuel; Call, Douglas R

2017-05-01

Investigators often rely on studies of Escherichia coli to characterize the burden of antibiotic resistance in a clinical or community setting. To determine if prevalence estimates for antibiotic resistance are sensitive to sample handling and interpretive criteria, we collected presumptive E. coli isolates (24 or 95 per stool sample) from a community in an urban informal settlement in Kenya. Isolates were tested for susceptibility to nine antibiotics using agar breakpoint assays and results were analyzed using generalized linear mixed models. We observed a 0.1). Prevalence estimates did not differ for five distinct E. coli colony morphologies on MacConkey agar plates (P>0.2). Successive re-plating of samples for up to five consecutive days had little to no impact on prevalence estimates. Finally, culturing E. coli under different conditions (with 5% CO 2 or micro-aerobic) did not affect estimates of prevalence. For the conditions tested in these experiments, minor modifications in sample processing protocols are unlikely to bias estimates of the prevalence of antibiotic-resistance for fecal E. coli. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Conditional estimation of exponential random graph models from snowball sampling designs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pattison, Philippa E.; Robins, Garry L.; Snijders, Tom A. B.; Wang, Peng

2013-01-01

A complete survey of a network in a large population may be prohibitively difficult and costly. So it is important to estimate models for networks using data from various network sampling designs, such as link-tracing designs. We focus here on snowball sampling designs, designs in which the members

Estimates of laboratory accuracy and precision on Hanford waste tank samples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dodd, D.A.

1995-01-01

A review was performed on three sets of analyses generated in Battelle, Pacific Northwest Laboratories and three sets generated by Westinghouse Hanford Company, 222-S Analytical Laboratory. Laboratory accuracy and precision was estimated by analyte and is reported in tables. The sources used to generate this estimate is of limited size but does include the physical forms, liquid and solid, which are representative of samples from tanks to be characterized. This estimate was published as an aid to programs developing data quality objectives in which specified limits are established. Data resulting from routine analyses of waste matrices can be expected to be bounded by the precision and accuracy estimates of the tables. These tables do not preclude or discourage direct negotiations between program and laboratory personnel while establishing bounding conditions. Programmatic requirements different than those listed may be reliably met on specific measurements and matrices. It should be recognized, however, that these are specific to waste tank matrices and may not be indicative of performance on samples from other sources

A Probabilistic Mass Estimation Algorithm for a Novel 7- Channel Capacitive Sample Verification Sensor

Science.gov (United States)

Wolf, Michael

2012-01-01

A document describes an algorithm created to estimate the mass placed on a sample verification sensor (SVS) designed for lunar or planetary robotic sample return missions. A novel SVS measures the capacitance between a rigid bottom plate and an elastic top membrane in seven locations. As additional sample material (soil and/or small rocks) is placed on the top membrane, the deformation of the membrane increases the capacitance. The mass estimation algorithm addresses both the calibration of each SVS channel, and also addresses how to combine the capacitances read from each of the seven channels into a single mass estimate. The probabilistic approach combines the channels according to the variance observed during the training phase, and provides not only the mass estimate, but also a value for the certainty of the estimate. SVS capacitance data is collected for known masses under a wide variety of possible loading scenarios, though in all cases, the distribution of sample within the canister is expected to be approximately uniform. A capacitance-vs-mass curve is fitted to this data, and is subsequently used to determine the mass estimate for the single channel s capacitance reading during the measurement phase. This results in seven different mass estimates, one for each SVS channel. Moreover, the variance of the calibration data is used to place a Gaussian probability distribution function (pdf) around this mass estimate. To blend these seven estimates, the seven pdfs are combined into a single Gaussian distribution function, providing the final mean and variance of the estimate. This blending technique essentially takes the final estimate as an average of the estimates of the seven channels, weighted by the inverse of the channel s variance.

Estimation of tritium activity in bioassay samples having chemiluminescence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dwivedi, R.K.; Manu, Kumar; Kumar, Vinay; Soni, Ashish; Kaushik, A.K.; Tiwari, S.K.; Gupta, Ashok

2008-01-01

Tritium is recognized as major internal dose contributor in PHWR type of reactors. Estimation of internal dose due to tritium is carried out by analyzing urine samples in liquid scintillation analyzer (LSA). Presence of residual biochemical species in urine samples of some individuals under medical administration shows significant amount of chemiluminescence. If appropriate care is not taken the results obtained by liquid scintillation counter may be mistaken as genuine uptake of tritium. The distillation method described in this paper is used at RAPS-3 and 4 to assess correct tritium uptake. (author)

Sampling scales define occupancy and underlying occupancy-abundance relationships in animals

Science.gov (United States)

Robin Steenweg; Mark Hebblewhite; Jesse Whittington; Paul Lukacs; Kevin McKelvey

2018-01-01

Occupancy-abundance (OA) relationships are a foundational ecological phenomenon and field of study, and occupancy models are increasingly used to track population trends and understand ecological interactions. However, these two fields of ecological inquiry remain largely isolated, despite growing appreciation of the importance of integration. For example, using...

Precision and relative effectiveness of a purse seine for sampling age-0 river herring in lakes

Science.gov (United States)

Devine, Matthew T.; Roy, Allison; Whiteley, Andrew R.; Gahagan, Benjamin I.; Armstrong, Michael P.; Jordaan, Adrian

2018-01-01

Stock assessments for anadromous river herring, collectively Alewife Alosa pseudoharengus and Blueback Herring A. aestivalis, lack adequate demographic information, particularly with respect to early life stages. Although sampling adult river herring is increasingly common throughout their range, currently no standardized, field‐based, analytical methods exist for estimating juvenile abundance in freshwater lakes. The objective of this research was to evaluate the relative effectiveness and sampling precision of a purse seine for estimating densities of age‐0 river herring in freshwater lakes. We used a purse seine to sample age‐0 river herring in June–September 2015 and June–July 2016 in 16 coastal freshwater lakes in the northeastern USA. Sampling effort varied from two seine hauls to more than 50 seine hauls per lake. Catch rates were highest in June and July, and sampling precision was maximized in July. Sampling at night (versus day) in open water (versus littoral areas) was most effective for capturing newly hatched larvae and juveniles up to ca. 100 mm TL. Bootstrap simulation results indicated that sampling precision of CPUE estimates increased with sampling effort, and there was a clear threshold beyond which increased effort resulted in negligible increases in precision. The effort required to produce precise CPUE estimates, as determined by the CV, was dependent on lake size; river herring densities could be estimated with up to 10 purse‐seine hauls (one‐two nights) in a small lake (50 ha). Fish collection techniques using a purse seine as described in this paper are likely to be effective for estimating recruit abundance of river herring in freshwater lakes across their range.

Sampling of systematic errors to estimate likelihood weights in nuclear data uncertainty propagation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helgesson, P.; Sjöstrand, H.; Koning, A.J.; Rydén, J.; Rochman, D.; Alhassan, E.; Pomp, S.

2016-01-01

In methodologies for nuclear data (ND) uncertainty assessment and propagation based on random sampling, likelihood weights can be used to infer experimental information into the distributions for the ND. As the included number of correlated experimental points grows large, the computational time for the matrix inversion involved in obtaining the likelihood can become a practical problem. There are also other problems related to the conventional computation of the likelihood, e.g., the assumption that all experimental uncertainties are Gaussian. In this study, a way to estimate the likelihood which avoids matrix inversion is investigated; instead, the experimental correlations are included by sampling of systematic errors. It is shown that the model underlying the sampling methodology (using univariate normal distributions for random and systematic errors) implies a multivariate Gaussian for the experimental points (i.e., the conventional model). It is also shown that the likelihood estimates obtained through sampling of systematic errors approach the likelihood obtained with matrix inversion as the sample size for the systematic errors grows large. In studied practical cases, it is seen that the estimates for the likelihood weights converge impractically slowly with the sample size, compared to matrix inversion. The computational time is estimated to be greater than for matrix inversion in cases with more experimental points, too. Hence, the sampling of systematic errors has little potential to compete with matrix inversion in cases where the latter is applicable. Nevertheless, the underlying model and the likelihood estimates can be easier to intuitively interpret than the conventional model and the likelihood function involving the inverted covariance matrix. Therefore, this work can both have pedagogical value and be used to help motivating the conventional assumption of a multivariate Gaussian for experimental data. The sampling of systematic errors could also

Instruction manual for ORNL tandem high abundance sensitivity mass spectrometer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, D.H.; McKown, H.S.; Chrisite, W.H.; Walker, R.L.; Carter, J.A.

1976-06-01

This manual describes the physical characteristics of the tandem mass spectrometer built by Oak Ridge National Laboratory for the International Atomic Energy Agency. Specific requirements met include ability to run small samples, high abundance sensitivity, good precision and accuracy, and adequate sample throughput. The instrument is capable of running uranium samples as small as 10 -12 g and has an abundance sensitivity in excess of 10 6 . Precision and accuracy are enhanced by a special sweep control circuit. Sample throughput is 6 to 12 samples per day. Operating instructions are also given

Allometric Equations for Estimating Biomass of Euterpe precatoria, the Most Abundant Palm Species in the Amazon

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Fernando Da Silva

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Allometric models to estimate biomass components such as stem mass Ms, foliage mass Ml, root mass Mr and aboveground mass Ma, were developed for the palm species Euterpe precatoria Mart., which is the most abundant tree species in the Amazon. We harvested twenty palms including above- and below-ground parts in an old growth Amazonian forest in Brazil. The diameter at breast height D ranged from 3.9–12.7 cm, and the stem height H ranged from 2.3–16.4 m. The D, diameter at ground basis D0, crown diameter CD, H, stem specific gravity ρ, and number of fronds Nf were considered as independent variables and incorporated into a power function model. The best predictors were D2Hρ for Ms and Ma, D2HNf for Ml, and D for Mr. Slender index (H/D ranged from 0.56–1.46 m·cm−1, and the D-H relationship suggested that the stem shape becomes more slender with increasing D. On the other hand, ρ increased with D implying a stiffening of stem tissue. The average root/shoot ratio was estimated as 0.29 which was higher than that reported for the non-palm tree species in the Amazon. Comparisons of several models to estimate Ma of different palm species, suggested that the variations of the D-H relationship and ρ should be considered to develop allometric models for estimating biomass in palm species. In particular the ρ largely varied depending on individual size, which should be important to consider, when developing the allometric models for palms.

The Abundance of Large Arcs From CLASH

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Bingxiao; Postman, Marc; Meneghetti, Massimo; Coe, Dan A.; Clash Team

2015-01-01

We have developed an automated arc-finding algorithm to perform a rigorous comparison of the observed and simulated abundance of large lensed background galaxies (a.k.a arcs). We use images from the CLASH program to derive our observed arc abundance. Simulated CLASH images are created by performing ray tracing through mock clusters generated by the N-body simulation calibrated tool -- MOKA, and N-body/hydrodynamic simulations -- MUSIC, over the same mass and redshift range as the CLASH X-ray selected sample. We derive a lensing efficiency of 15 ± 3 arcs per cluster for the X-ray selected CLASH sample and 4 ± 2 arcs per cluster for the simulated sample. The marginally significant difference (3.0 σ) between the results for the observations and the simulations can be explained by the systematically smaller area with magnification larger than 3 (by a factor of ˜4) in both MOKA and MUSIC mass models relative to those derived from the CLASH data. Accounting for this difference brings the observed and simulated arc statistics into full agreement. We find that the source redshift distribution does not have big impact on the arc abundance but the arc abundance is very sensitive to the concentration of the dark matter halos. Our results suggest that the solution to the "arc statistics problem" lies primarily in matching the cluster dark matter distribution.

Identification and estimation of nonlinear models using two samples with nonclassical measurement errors

KAUST Repository

Carroll, Raymond J.

2010-05-01

This paper considers identification and estimation of a general nonlinear Errors-in-Variables (EIV) model using two samples. Both samples consist of a dependent variable, some error-free covariates, and an error-prone covariate, for which the measurement error has unknown distribution and could be arbitrarily correlated with the latent true values; and neither sample contains an accurate measurement of the corresponding true variable. We assume that the regression model of interest - the conditional distribution of the dependent variable given the latent true covariate and the error-free covariates - is the same in both samples, but the distributions of the latent true covariates vary with observed error-free discrete covariates. We first show that the general latent nonlinear model is nonparametrically identified using the two samples when both could have nonclassical errors, without either instrumental variables or independence between the two samples. When the two samples are independent and the nonlinear regression model is parameterized, we propose sieve Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation (Q-MLE) for the parameter of interest, and establish its root-n consistency and asymptotic normality under possible misspecification, and its semiparametric efficiency under correct specification, with easily estimated standard errors. A Monte Carlo simulation and a data application are presented to show the power of the approach.

Time-averaged molluscan death assemblages: Palimpsests of richness, snapshots of abundance

Science.gov (United States)

Kidwell, Susan M.

2002-09-01

Field tests that compare living communities to associated dead remains are the primary means of estimating the reliability of biological information in the fossil record; such tests also provide insights into the dynamics of skeletal accumulation. Contrary to expectations, molluscan death assemblages capture a strong signal of living species' rank-order abundances. This finding, combined with independent evidence for exponential postmortem destruction of dead cohorts, argues that, although the species richness of a death assemblage may be a time-averaged palimpsest of the habitat (molluscan death assemblages contain, on average, ˜25% more species than any single census of the local live community, after sample-size standardization), species' relative-abundance data from the same assemblage probably constitute a much higher acuity record dominated by the most recent dead cohorts (e.g., from the past few hundred years or so, rather than the several thousand years recorded by the total assemblage and usually taken as the acuity of species-richness information). The pervasive excess species richness of molluscan death assemblages requires further analysis and modeling to discriminate among possible sources. However, time averaging alone cannot be responsible unless rare species (species with low rates of dead-shell production) are collectively more durable (have longer taphonomic half-lives) than abundant species. Species richness and abundance data thus appear to present fundamentally different taphonomic qualities for paleobiological analysis. Relative- abundance information is more snapshot-like and thus taphonomically more straightforward than expected, especially compared to the complex origins of dead-species richness.

Spatial distribution, sampling precision and survey design optimisation with non-normal variables: The case of anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) recruitment in Spanish Mediterranean waters

Science.gov (United States)

Tugores, M. Pilar; Iglesias, Magdalena; Oñate, Dolores; Miquel, Joan

2016-02-01

In the Mediterranean Sea, the European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) displays a key role in ecological and economical terms. Ensuring stock sustainability requires the provision of crucial information, such as species spatial distribution or unbiased abundance and precision estimates, so that management strategies can be defined (e.g. fishing quotas, temporal closure areas or marine protected areas MPA). Furthermore, the estimation of the precision of global abundance at different sampling intensities can be used for survey design optimisation. Geostatistics provide a priori unbiased estimations of the spatial structure, global abundance and precision for autocorrelated data. However, their application to non-Gaussian data introduces difficulties in the analysis in conjunction with low robustness or unbiasedness. The present study applied intrinsic geostatistics in two dimensions in order to (i) analyse the spatial distribution of anchovy in Spanish Western Mediterranean waters during the species' recruitment season, (ii) produce distribution maps, (iii) estimate global abundance and its precision, (iv) analyse the effect of changing the sampling intensity on the precision of global abundance estimates and, (v) evaluate the effects of several methodological options on the robustness of all the analysed parameters. The results suggested that while the spatial structure was usually non-robust to the tested methodological options when working with the original dataset, it became more robust for the transformed datasets (especially for the log-backtransformed dataset). The global abundance was always highly robust and the global precision was highly or moderately robust to most of the methodological options, except for data transformation.

Abundance Survey of M and K Dwarf Stars

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Woolf, Vincent M. [Astronomy Department, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98133 (United States); Wallerstein, George [Astronomy Department, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98133 (United States)

2005-07-25

We report the measurement of chemical abundances in 35 low-mass main sequence (M and K dwarf) stars. We have measured the abundance of 12 elements in Kapteyn's Star, a nearby halo M subdwarf. The abundances indicate an iron abundance of [Fe/H] = -0.98, which is about 0.5 dex smaller than that measured in the only previous published measurement using atomic absorption lines. We have measured Fe and Ti abundances in 35 M and K dwarfs with -2.39 [Fe/H] +0.21 using atomic absorption lines, mostly in the 8000A <{lambda} < 8850A range. These will be used to calibrate photometric and low-resolution spectrum metallicity indices for low mass dwarfs, which will make metallicity estimates for these stars more certain. We also describe some difficulties encountered which are not normally necessary to consider when studying warmer stars.

Reliability estimation system: its application to the nuclear geophysical sampling of ore deposits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khaykovich, I.M.; Savosin, S.I.

1992-01-01

The reliability estimation system accepted in the Soviet Union for sampling data in nuclear geophysics is based on unique requirements in metrology and methodology. It involves estimating characteristic errors in calibration, as well as errors in measurement and interpretation. This paper describes the methods of estimating the levels of systematic and random errors at each stage of the problem. The data of nuclear geophysics sampling are considered to be reliable if there are no statistically significant, systematic differences between ore intervals determined by this method and by geological control, or by other methods of sampling; the reliability of the latter having been verified. The difference between the random errors is statistically insignificant. The system allows one to obtain information on the parameters of ore intervals with a guaranteed random error and without systematic errors. (Author)

On the technetium abundance determination in the atmospheres of red giants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kipper, T.A.

1987-01-01

Technetium abundance in the atmospheres of S- and C-stars are estimated by comparing the synthetic and observed spectra for the TcI λ5924.47 region. It was found that reliable estimates are possible only for the pure S-stars and SC-stars. For the late carbon stars only the upper limit for the Tc abundance can be fiound. For TX Psc (C6.5) this was found to be lgε Tc =0.5

Estimating time to pregnancy from current durations in a cross-sectional sample

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Keiding, Niels; Kvist, Kajsa; Hartvig, Helle

2002-01-01

A new design for estimating the distribution of time to pregnancy is proposed and investigated. The design is based on recording current durations in a cross-sectional sample of women, leading to statistical problems similar to estimating renewal time distributions from backward recurrence times....

Statistical Methods and Sampling Design for Estimating Step Trends in Surface-Water Quality

Science.gov (United States)

Hirsch, Robert M.

1988-01-01

This paper addresses two components of the problem of estimating the magnitude of step trends in surface water quality. The first is finding a robust estimator appropriate to the data characteristics expected in water-quality time series. The J. L. Hodges-E. L. Lehmann class of estimators is found to be robust in comparison to other nonparametric and moment-based estimators. A seasonal Hodges-Lehmann estimator is developed and shown to have desirable properties. Second, the effectiveness of various sampling strategies is examined using Monte Carlo simulation coupled with application of this estimator. The simulation is based on a large set of total phosphorus data from the Potomac River. To assure that the simulated records have realistic properties, the data are modeled in a multiplicative fashion incorporating flow, hysteresis, seasonal, and noise components. The results demonstrate the importance of balancing the length of the two sampling periods and balancing the number of data values between the two periods.

The Distribution and Abundance of an Island Population of Koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) in the Far North of Their Geographic Range

Science.gov (United States)

McGregor, Denise C.; Kerr, Sarah E.; Krockenberger, Andrew K.

2013-01-01

Koalas are an iconic species of charismatic megafauna, of substantial social and conservation significance. They are widely distributed, often at low densities, and individuals can be difficult to detect, making population surveys challenging and costly. Consequently, koala population estimates have been limited and the results inconsistent. The aims of this study were to estimate the distribution, relative abundance and population size of the koalas on Magnetic Island, far north Queensland. Population densities were estimated in 18 different vegetation types present on the island using a Fecal Standing Crop Method. Koala density ranged from 0.404 ha−1, recorded in forest red gum and bloodwood woodland, to absence from eight of the vegetation types surveyed. The second highest density of 0.297 koalas ha−1 was recorded in mixed eucalypt woodland, which covers 45% of the island. The total abundance of koalas on Magnetic Island, not including those present in urban areas, was estimated at 825±175 (SEM). The large variation in koala density across vegetation types reinforces the need for sampling stratification when calculating abundance over large areas, as uniformity of habitat quality cannot be assumed. In this context, koala populations also occur in low densities in areas generally regarded as poor quality koala habitat. These results highlight the importance of protecting vegetation communities not traditionally considered to have high conservation value to koalas, as these habitats may be essential for maintaining viable, widespread, low-density populations. The results from this study provide a baseline to assess future trends in koala distribution, density and abundance on Magnetic Island. PMID:23527258

The distribution and abundance of an island population of Koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus in the far north of their geographic range.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Denise C McGregor

Full Text Available Koalas are an iconic species of charismatic megafauna, of substantial social and conservation significance. They are widely distributed, often at low densities, and individuals can be difficult to detect, making population surveys challenging and costly. Consequently, koala population estimates have been limited and the results inconsistent. The aims of this study were to estimate the distribution, relative abundance and population size of the koalas on Magnetic Island, far north Queensland. Population densities were estimated in 18 different vegetation types present on the island using a Fecal Standing Crop Method. Koala density ranged from 0.404 ha(-1, recorded in forest red gum and bloodwood woodland, to absence from eight of the vegetation types surveyed. The second highest density of 0.297 koalas ha(-1 was recorded in mixed eucalypt woodland, which covers 45% of the island. The total abundance of koalas on Magnetic Island, not including those present in urban areas, was estimated at 825±175 (SEM. The large variation in koala density across vegetation types reinforces the need for sampling stratification when calculating abundance over large areas, as uniformity of habitat quality cannot be assumed. In this context, koala populations also occur in low densities in areas generally regarded as poor quality koala habitat. These results highlight the importance of protecting vegetation communities not traditionally considered to have high conservation value to koalas, as these habitats may be essential for maintaining viable, widespread, low-density populations. The results from this study provide a baseline to assess future trends in koala distribution, density and abundance on Magnetic Island.

Distribution and abundance of West Greenland humpback whales ( Megaptera novaeangliae )

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Finn; Hammond, P.S.

2004-01-01

Photo-identification surveys of humpback whales Megaptera novaeangliae were conducted at West Greenland during 1988-93, the last 2 years of which were part of the internationally coordinated humpback whale research programme YoNAH, with the primary aim of estimating abundance for the West Greenland...... effort. A total of 670 groups of humpback whales was encountered leading to the identification of 348 individual animals. Three areas of concentration were identified: an area off Nuuk; an area at c. 63degrees30'N; and an area off Frederikshab. Sequential Petersen capture-recapture estimates of abundance...

A comparison of turtle sampling methods in a small lake in Standing Stone State Park, Overton County, Tennessee

Science.gov (United States)

Weber, A.; Layzer, James B.

2011-01-01

We used basking traps and hoop nets to sample turtles in Standing Stone Lake at 2-week intervals from May to November 2006. In alternate weeks, we conducted visual basking surveys. We collected and observed four species of turtles: spiny softshell (Apalone spinifera), northern map turtle (Graptemys geographica), pond slider (Trachernys scripta), and snapping turtle (Chelydra serpentina). Relative abundances varied greatly among sampling methods. To varying degrees, all methods were species selective. Population estimates from mark and recaptures of three species, basking counts, and hoop net catches indicated that pond sliders were the most abundant species, but northern map turtles were 8× more abundant than pond sliders in basking trap catches. We saw relatively few snapping turtles basking even though population estimates indicated they were the second most abundant species. Populations of all species were dominated by adult individuals. Sex ratios of three species differed significantly from 1:1. Visual surveys were the most efficient method for determining the presence of species, but capture methods were necessary to obtain size and sex data.

Is a 'convenience' sample useful for estimating immunization coverage in a small population?

Science.gov (United States)

Weir, Jean E; Jones, Carrie

2008-01-01

Rapid survey methodologies are widely used for assessing immunization coverage in developing countries, approximating true stratified random sampling. Non-random ('convenience') sampling is not considered appropriate for estimating immunization coverage rates but has the advantages of low cost and expediency. We assessed the validity of a convenience sample of children presenting to a travelling clinic by comparing the coverage rate in the convenience sample to the true coverage established by surveying each child in three villages in rural Papua New Guinea. The rate of DTF immunization coverage as estimated by the convenience sample was within 10% of the true coverage when the proportion of children in the sample was two-thirds or when only children over the age of one year were counted, but differed by 11% when the sample included only 53% of the children and when all eligible children were included. The convenience sample may be sufficiently accurate for reporting purposes and is useful for identifying areas of low coverage.

Using SPIRAL (Single Pollen Isotope Ratio AnaLysis) to estimate C 3- and C 4-grass abundance in the paleorecord

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, David M.; Hu, Feng Sheng; Scholes, Daniel R.; Joshi, Neeraj; Pearson, Ann

2008-05-01

C 3 and C 4 grasses differ greatly in their responses to environmental controls and influences on biogeochemical processes (e.g. water, carbon, and nutrient cycling). Difficulties in distinguishing between these two functional groups of grasses have hindered paleoecological studies of grass-dominated ecosystems. Stable carbon isotopic analysis of individual grains of grass pollen using a spooling-wire microcombustion device interfaced with an isotope-ratio mass spectrometer holds promise for improving C 3 and C 4 grass reconstructions. This technique, SPIRAL (Single Pollen Isotope Ratio AnaLysis), has only been evaluated using pollen of known C 3 and C 4 grasses. To test the ability of SPIRAL to reproduce the abundance of C 3 and C 4 grasses on the landscape, we measured δ13C values of > 1500 individual grains of grass pollen isolated from the surface sediments of ten lakes in areas that span a large gradient of C 3- and C 4-grass abundance, as determined from vegetation surveys. Results indicate a strong positive correlation between the δ13C-based estimates of % C 4-grass pollen and the abundance of C 4 grasses on the landscape. The % C 4-grass pollen slightly underestimates the actual abundance of C 4 grasses at sites with high proportions of C 4 grasses, which can be corrected using regression analysis. Comparison of the % C 4-grass pollen with C/N and δ13C measurements of bulk organic matter illustrates the distinct advantages of grass-pollen δ13C as a proxy for distinguishing C 3 and C 4 shifts within the grass family. Thus SPIRAL promises to advance our understanding of grassland ecology and evolution.

Estimation of demographic parameters in a tiger population from long-term camera trap data

Science.gov (United States)

Karanth, K. Ullas; Nichols, James D.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Nichols, James D.; Karanth, K. Ullas

2011-01-01

Chapter 7 (Karanth et al.) illustrated the use of camera trapping in combination with closed population capture–recapture (CR) models to estimate densities of tigers Panthera tigris. Such estimates can be very useful for investigating variation across space for a particular species (e.g., Karanth et al. 2004) or variation among species at a specific location. In addition, estimates of density continued at the same site(s) over multiple years are very useful for understanding and managing populations of large carnivores. Such multi-year studies can yield estimates of rates of change in abundance. Additionally, because the fates of marked individuals are tracked through time, biologists can delve deeper into factors driving changes in abundance such as rates of survival, recruitment and movement (Williams et al. 2002). Fortunately, modern CR approaches permit the modeling of populations that change between sampling occasions as a result of births, deaths, immigration and emigration (Pollock et al. 1990; Nichols 1992). Some of these early “open population” models focused on estimation of survival rates and, to a lesser extent, abundance, but more recent models permit estimation of recruitment and movement rates as well.

Evaluating the performance of species richness estimators: sensitivity to sample grain size

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hortal, Joaquín; Borges, Paulo A. V.; Gaspar, Clara

2006-01-01

and several recent estimators [proposed by Rosenzweig et al. (Conservation Biology, 2003, 17, 864-874), and Ugland et al. (Journal of Animal Ecology, 2003, 72, 888-897)] performed poorly. 3.  Estimations developed using the smaller grain sizes (pair of traps, traps, records and individuals) presented similar....... Data obtained with standardized sampling of 78 transects in natural forest remnants of five islands were aggregated in seven different grains (i.e. ways of defining a single sample): islands, natural areas, transects, pairs of traps, traps, database records and individuals to assess the effect of using...

Bayesian Estimation of Fish Disease Prevalence from Pooled Samples Incorporating Sensitivity and Specificity

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Christopher J.; Moffitt, Christine M.

2003-03-01

An important emerging issue in fisheries biology is the health of free-ranging populations of fish, particularly with respect to the prevalence of certain pathogens. For many years, pathologists focused on captive populations and interest was in the presence or absence of certain pathogens, so it was economically attractive to test pooled samples of fish. Recently, investigators have begun to study individual fish prevalence from pooled samples. Estimation of disease prevalence from pooled samples is straightforward when assay sensitivity and specificity are perfect, but this assumption is unrealistic. Here we illustrate the use of a Bayesian approach for estimating disease prevalence from pooled samples when sensitivity and specificity are not perfect. We also focus on diagnostic plots to monitor the convergence of the Gibbs-sampling-based Bayesian analysis. The methods are illustrated with a sample data set.

Porosity estimation by semi-supervised learning with sparsely available labeled samples

Science.gov (United States)

Lima, Luiz Alberto; Görnitz, Nico; Varella, Luiz Eduardo; Vellasco, Marley; Müller, Klaus-Robert; Nakajima, Shinichi

2017-09-01

This paper addresses the porosity estimation problem from seismic impedance volumes and porosity samples located in a small group of exploratory wells. Regression methods, trained on the impedance as inputs and the porosity as output labels, generally suffer from extremely expensive (and hence sparsely available) porosity samples. To optimally make use of the valuable porosity data, a semi-supervised machine learning method was proposed, Transductive Conditional Random Field Regression (TCRFR), showing good performance (Görnitz et al., 2017). TCRFR, however, still requires more labeled data than those usually available, which creates a gap when applying the method to the porosity estimation problem in realistic situations. In this paper, we aim to fill this gap by introducing two graph-based preprocessing techniques, which adapt the original TCRFR for extremely weakly supervised scenarios. Our new method outperforms the previous automatic estimation methods on synthetic data and provides a comparable result to the manual labored, time-consuming geostatistics approach on real data, proving its potential as a practical industrial tool.

Using Range-Wide Abundance Modeling to Identify Key Conservation Areas for the Micro-Endemic Bolson Tortoise (Gopherus flavomarginatus.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cinthya A Ureña-Aranda

Full Text Available A widespread biogeographic pattern in nature is that population abundance is not uniform across the geographic range of species: most occurrence sites have relatively low numbers, whereas a few places contain orders of magnitude more individuals. The Bolson tortoise Gopherus flavomarginatus is endemic to a small region of the Chihuahuan Desert in Mexico, where habitat deterioration threatens this species with extinction. In this study we combined field burrows counts and the approach for modeling species abundance based on calculating the distance to the niche centroid to obtain range-wide abundance estimates. For the Bolson tortoise, we found a robust, negative relationship between observed burrows abundance and distance to the niche centroid, with a predictive capacity of 71%. Based on these results we identified four priority areas for the conservation of this microendemic and threatened tortoise. We conclude that this approach may be a useful approximation for identifying key areas for sampling and conservation efforts in elusive and rare species.

Geographical range and local abundance of tree species in China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haibao Ren

Full Text Available Most studies on the geographical distribution of species have utilized a few well-known taxa in Europe and North America, with little research in China and its wide range of climate and forest types. We assembled large datasets to quantify the geographic ranges of tree species in China and to test several biogeographic hypotheses: 1 whether locally abundant species tend to be geographically widespread; 2 whether species are more abundant towards their range-centers; and 3 how abundances are correlated between sites. Local abundances of 651 species were derived from four tree plots of 20-25 ha where all individuals ≥1 cm in stem diameter were mapped and identified taxonomically. Range sizes of these species across China were then estimated from over 460,000 geo-referenced records; a Bayesian approach was used, allowing careful measures of error of each range estimate. The log-transformed range sizes had a bell-shaped distribution with a median of 703,000 km(2, and >90% of 651 species had ranges >10(5 km(2. There was no relationship between local abundance and range size, and no evidence for species being more abundant towards their range-centers. Finally, species' abundances were positively correlated between sites. The widespread nature of most tree species in China suggests few are vulnerable to global extinction, and there is no indication of the double-peril that would result if rare species also had narrow ranges.

Comparison of chlorzoxazone one-sample methods to estimate CYP2E1 activity in humans

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kramer, Iza; Dalhoff, Kim; Clemmesen, Jens O

2003-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Comparison of a one-sample with a multi-sample method (the metabolic fractional clearance) to estimate CYP2E1 activity in humans. METHODS: Healthy, male Caucasians ( n=19) were included. The multi-sample fractional clearance (Cl(fe)) of chlorzoxazone was compared with one...... estimates, Cl(est) at 3 h or 6 h, and MR at 3 h, can serve as reliable markers of CYP2E1 activity. The one-sample clearance method is an accurate, renal function-independent measure of the intrinsic activity; it is simple to use and easily applicable to humans.......-time-point clearance estimation (Cl(est)) at 3, 4, 5 and 6 h. Furthermore, the metabolite/drug ratios (MRs) estimated from one-time-point samples at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 h were compared with Cl(fe). RESULTS: The concordance between Cl(est) and Cl(fe) was highest at 6 h. The minimal mean prediction error (MPE) of Cl...

Estimation of Uncertainty in Aerosol Concentration Measured by Aerosol Sampling System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Jong Chan; Song, Yong Jae; Jung, Woo Young; Lee, Hyun Chul; Kim, Gyu Tae; Lee, Doo Yong [FNC Technology Co., Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

FNC Technology Co., Ltd has been developed test facilities for the aerosol generation, mixing, sampling and measurement under high pressure and high temperature conditions. The aerosol generation system is connected to the aerosol mixing system which injects SiO{sub 2}/ethanol mixture. In the sampling system, glass fiber membrane filter has been used to measure average mass concentration. Based on the experimental results using main carrier gas of steam and air mixture, the uncertainty estimation of the sampled aerosol concentration was performed by applying Gaussian error propagation law. FNC Technology Co., Ltd. has been developed the experimental facilities for the aerosol measurement under high pressure and high temperature. The purpose of the tests is to develop commercial test module for aerosol generation, mixing and sampling system applicable to environmental industry and safety related system in nuclear power plant. For the uncertainty calculation of aerosol concentration, the value of the sampled aerosol concentration is not measured directly, but must be calculated from other quantities. The uncertainty of the sampled aerosol concentration is a function of flow rates of air and steam, sampled mass, sampling time, condensed steam mass and its absolute errors. These variables propagate to the combination of variables in the function. Using operating parameters and its single errors from the aerosol test cases performed at FNC, the uncertainty of aerosol concentration evaluated by Gaussian error propagation law is less than 1%. The results of uncertainty estimation in the aerosol sampling system will be utilized for the system performance data.

Seasonal patterns of horse fly richness and abundance in the Pampa biome of southern Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Krüger, Rodrigo Ferreira; Krolow, Tiago Kütter

2015-12-01

Fluctuations in seasonal patterns of horse fly populations were examined in rainforests of tropical South America, where the climate is seasonal. These patterns were evaluated with robust analytical models rather than identifying the main factors that influenced the fluctuations. We examined the seasonality of populations of horse flies in fields and lowland areas of the Pampa biome of southern Brazil with generalized linear models. We also investigated the diversity of these flies and the sampling effort of Malaise traps in this biome over two years. All of the 29 species had clear seasonality with regard to occurrence and abundance, but only seven species were identified as being influenced by temperature and humidity. The sampling was sufficient and the estimated diversity was 10% more than observed. Seasonal trends were synchronized across species and the populations were most abundant between September and March and nearly zero in other months. While previous studies demonstrated that seasonal patterns in population fluctuations are correlated with climatic conditions in horse fly assemblages in South America rainforests, we show a clear effect of each factor on richness and abundance and the seasonality in the prevalence of horse fly assemblages in localities of the Pampa biome. © 2015 The Society for Vector Ecology.

Seismological measurement of solar helium abundance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vorontsov, S.V.; Pamyatnykh, A.A.

1991-01-01

The internal structure and evolution of the Sun depends on its chemical composition, particularly the helium abundance. In addition, the helium abundance in the solar envelope is thought to represent the protosolar value, making it a datum of cosmological significance. Spectroscopic measurements of the helium abundance are uncertain, and the most reliable estimates until now have come from the calibration of solar evolutionary models. The frequencies of solar acoustic oscillations are sensitive, however, to the behaviour of the speed of sound in the Sun's helium ionization zone, which allows a helioseismological determination of the helium abundance. Sound-speed inversion of helioseismological data can be used for this purpose, but precise frequency measurements of high-degree oscillation modes are needed. Here we describe a new approach based on an analysis of the phase shift of acoustic waves of intermediate-degree modes. From the accurate intermediate-mode data now available, we obtain a helium mass fraction Y=0.25±0.01 in the solar convection zone, significantly smaller than the value Y=0.27-0.29 predicted by recent solar evolutionary models. The discrepancy indicates either that initial helium abundance was reduced in the envelope by downward diffusion or that the protosolar value was lower than currently accepted. (author)

Indigenous abundances of siderophile elements in the lunar highlands: implications for the origin of the Moon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delano, J.W.; Ringwood, A.E.

1978-01-01

Substantial indigeneous abundances of siderophile elements have been found to be present in the lunar highlands. The abundances of 13 siderophile elements in the parental magma were estimated by using a simple model. It is shown that metal/silicate fractionation within the Moon cannot have been the cause of the siderophile element abundances in the parental highlands magma and primitive, low-Ti mare basalts. The relative abundances of the indigenous siderophile elements in highlands and mare samples seem, instead, to be the result of complex processes which operated prior to the Moon's accretion. The abundances of the relatively involatile, siderophile elements in the parental highlands magma are strikingly similar to the abundances observed in terrestrial oceanic tholeiites. Furthermore, the abundances of the relatively volatile, siderophile elements in the parental highlands magma are also systematically related to the corresponding abundances in terrestrial oceanic tholeiites. In fact, the parental magma of the lunar highlands can be essentially regarded as having been a volatile-depleted terrestrial oceanic tholeite. The origin of the moon is discussed in the context of the results. The probability that depletion of siderophile elements occurred in an earlier generation of differentiated planetesimals similar to those which formed the basaltic achondrites, stony-irons, and irons is examined but can be dismissed on several grounds. It seems that the uniquely terrestrial 'siderophile signature' within the Moon can be explained only if the Moon was derived from the Earth's mantle subsequent to core-formation. (Auth.)

inverse gaussian model for small area estimation via gibbs sampling

African Journals Online (AJOL)

ADMIN

For example, MacGibbon and Tomberlin. (1989) have considered estimating small area rates and binomial parameters using empirical Bayes methods. Stroud (1991) used hierarchical Bayes approach for univariate natural exponential families with quadratic variance functions in sample survey applications, while Chaubey ...

Abundances of Demersal Sharks and Chimaera from 1994-2009 Scientific Surveys in the Central Mediterranean Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Ragonese, Sergio; Vitale, Sergio; Dimech, Mark; Mazzola, Salvatore

2013-01-01

Bibliographic and data gathered in scientific bottom trawl surveys carried out off the Southern Coasts of Sicily (Mediterranean Sea), from 1994 to 2009 and between a depth of 10 and 800 m, were analysed in order to prepare a checklist of demersal sharks and chimaera, which are species sensitive to fisheries exploitation. Out of the 27 previously reported demersal shark and chimaera taxa in the Mediterranean, only 23 were found in literature and 20 sampled during the surveys in the investigated area. Among the species sampled in the surveys, only 2 ubiquitous ( Squalus blainville and Scyliorhinus canicula ) and 3 deep-water ( Chimaera monstrosa , Centrophorus granulosus and Galeus melastomus ) species showed a wide geographical distribution with a consistent abundance. Excluding the rare (such as Oxynotus centrina ) or uncommon shark (e.g. Squalus acanthias ), the estimated frequencies of occurrence and abundance indexes show a possible risk of local extinction for the almost exclusively (e.g. angelshark, Squatina spp.) or preferential (e.g. Scyliorhinus stellaris ) neritic species. PMID:24086386

Limited sampling hampers "big data" estimation of species richness in a tropical biodiversity hotspot.

Science.gov (United States)

Engemann, Kristine; Enquist, Brian J; Sandel, Brody; Boyle, Brad; Jørgensen, Peter M; Morueta-Holme, Naia; Peet, Robert K; Violle, Cyrille; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2015-02-01

Macro-scale species richness studies often use museum specimens as their main source of information. However, such datasets are often strongly biased due to variation in sampling effort in space and time. These biases may strongly affect diversity estimates and may, thereby, obstruct solid inference on the underlying diversity drivers, as well as mislead conservation prioritization. In recent years, this has resulted in an increased focus on developing methods to correct for sampling bias. In this study, we use sample-size-correcting methods to examine patterns of tropical plant diversity in Ecuador, one of the most species-rich and climatically heterogeneous biodiversity hotspots. Species richness estimates were calculated based on 205,735 georeferenced specimens of 15,788 species using the Margalef diversity index, the Chao estimator, the second-order Jackknife and Bootstrapping resampling methods, and Hill numbers and rarefaction. Species richness was heavily correlated with sampling effort, and only rarefaction was able to remove this effect, and we recommend this method for estimation of species richness with "big data" collections.

Chemical abundances of globular clusters in NGC 5128 (Centaurus A)

Science.gov (United States)

Hernandez, Svea; Larsen, Søren; Trager, Scott; Kaper, Lex; Groot, Paul

2018-06-01

We perform a detailed abundance analysis on integrated-light spectra of 20 globular clusters (GCs) in the early-type galaxy NGC 5128 (Centaurus A). The GCs were observed with X-Shooter on the Very Large Telescope (VLT). The cluster sample spans a metallicity range of -1.92 poor GCs in NGC 5128 is genuine, it could hint at a chemical enrichment history different than that experienced by the MW. We also measure Na abundances in 9 out of 20 GCs. We find evidence for intracluster abundance variations in six of these clusters where we see enhanced [Na/Fe] > +0.25 dex. We obtain the first abundance measurements of Cr, Mn, and Ni for a sample of the GC population in NGC 5128 and find consistency with the overall trends observed in the MW, with a slight enhancement (<0.1 dex) in the Fe-peak abundances measured in the NGC 5128.

Beamforming using subspace estimation from a diagonally averaged sample covariance.

Science.gov (United States)

Quijano, Jorge E; Zurk, Lisa M

2017-08-01

The potential benefit of a large-aperture sonar array for high resolution target localization is often challenged by the lack of sufficient data required for adaptive beamforming. This paper introduces a Toeplitz-constrained estimator of the clairvoyant signal covariance matrix corresponding to multiple far-field targets embedded in background isotropic noise. The estimator is obtained by averaging along subdiagonals of the sample covariance matrix, followed by covariance extrapolation using the method of maximum entropy. The sample covariance is computed from limited data snapshots, a situation commonly encountered with large-aperture arrays in environments characterized by short periods of local stationarity. Eigenvectors computed from the Toeplitz-constrained covariance are used to construct signal-subspace projector matrices, which are shown to reduce background noise and improve detection of closely spaced targets when applied to subspace beamforming. Monte Carlo simulations corresponding to increasing array aperture suggest convergence of the proposed projector to the clairvoyant signal projector, thereby outperforming the classic projector obtained from the sample eigenvectors. Beamforming performance of the proposed method is analyzed using simulated data, as well as experimental data from the Shallow Water Array Performance experiment.

Can Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS and Forest Estimates Derived from Satellite Images Be Used to Predict Abundance and Species Richness of Birds and Beetles in Boreal Forest?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eva Lindberg

2015-04-01

Full Text Available In managed landscapes, conservation planning requires effective methods to identify high-biodiversity areas. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential of airborne laser scanning (ALS and forest estimates derived from satellite images extracted at two spatial scales for predicting the stand-scale abundance and species richness of birds and beetles in a managed boreal forest landscape. Multiple regression models based on forest data from a 50-m radius (i.e., corresponding to a homogenous forest stand had better explanatory power than those based on a 200-m radius (i.e., including also parts of adjacent stands. Bird abundance and species richness were best explained by the ALS variables “maximum vegetation height” and “vegetation cover between 0.5 and 3 m” (both positive. Flying beetle abundance and species richness, as well as epigaeic (i.e., ground-living beetle richness were best explained by a model including the ALS variable “maximum vegetation height” (positive and the satellite-derived variable “proportion of pine” (negative. Epigaeic beetle abundance was best explained by “maximum vegetation height” at 50 m (positive and “stem volume” at 200 m (positive. Our results show that forest estimates derived from satellite images and ALS data provide complementary information for explaining forest biodiversity patterns. We conclude that these types of remote sensing data may provide an efficient tool for conservation planning in managed boreal landscapes.

Spatial gradients in freshwater fish diversity, abundance and current pattern in the Himalayan region of Upper Ganges Basin, India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

AJEY KUMAR PATHAK

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Pathak AK, Sarkar UK, Singh SP. 2014. Spatial gradients in freshwater fish diversity, abundance and current pattern in the Himalayan region of Upper Ganges Basin, India. Biodiversitas 15: 186-194.The present study describes the analysis and mapping of the different measurements of freshwater fish biodiversity of the Upper Ganges basin in the Himalayan region using spatial interpolation methods of Geographical Information System. The diversity, richness and abundance of fishes for each sampling location were determined and Kriging interpolation was applied on each fisheries measurement to predict and produce semivariogram. The semivariogarms produced were cross validated and reclassified. The reclassified maps for richness, abundance and diversity of fishes, occurrence of cold water threatened fish and abundance of important genera like Tor, Schziothorax and species were produced. The result of the Kriging produced good results and overall error in the estimation process was found significant. The cross validation of semovariograms also provided a better result with the observed data sets. Moreover, weighted overlay analysis of the reclassified raster maps of richness and abundance of fishes produced the classified raster map at different evaluation scale (0-10 qualitatively describing the gradient of species richness and abundance compositely. Similarly, the classified raster map at same evaluation scale qualitatively describing the gradient of species abundance and diversity compositely was produced and published. Further, basin wise analysis between Alaknanda/Pindar and Ganga1 sub basins showed 0.745 disparities at 0.745 distances in 2 dimensional spaces. The richness, diversity and abundance of threatened fishes among the different sampling locations were not significant (p = 0.9.

The effects of parameter estimation on minimizing the in-control average sample size for the double sampling X bar chart

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael B.C. Khoo

2013-11-01

Full Text Available The double sampling (DS X bar chart, one of the most widely-used charting methods, is superior for detecting small and moderate shifts in the process mean. In a right skewed run length distribution, the median run length (MRL provides a more credible representation of the central tendency than the average run length (ARL, as the mean is greater than the median. In this paper, therefore, MRL is used as the performance criterion instead of the traditional ARL. Generally, the performance of the DS X bar chart is investigated under the assumption of known process parameters. In practice, these parameters are usually estimated from an in-control reference Phase-I dataset. Since the performance of the DS X bar chart is significantly affected by estimation errors, we study the effects of parameter estimation on the MRL-based DS X bar chart when the in-control average sample size is minimised. This study reveals that more than 80 samples are required for the MRL-based DS X bar chart with estimated parameters to perform more favourably than the corresponding chart with known parameters.

Book review: A new view on the species abundance distribution

Science.gov (United States)

DeAngelis, Donald L.

2018-01-01

The sampled relative abundances of species of a taxonomic group, whether birds, trees, or moths, in a natural community at a particular place vary in a way that suggests a consistent underlying pattern, referred to as the species abundance distribution (SAD). Preston [1] conjectured that the numbers of species, plotted as a histogram of logarithmic abundance classes called octaves, seemed to fit a lognormal distribution; that is, the histograms look like normal distributions, although truncated on the left-hand, or low-species-abundance, end. Although other specific curves for the SAD have been proposed in the literature, Preston’s lognormal distribution is widely cited in textbooks and has stimulated attempts at explanation. An important aspect of Preston’s lognormal distribution is the ‘veil line’, a vertical line drawn exactly at the point of the left-hand truncation in the distribution, to the left of which would be species missing from the sample. Dewdney rejects the lognormal conjecture. Instead, starting with the long-recognized fact that the number of species sampled from a community, when plotted as histograms against population abundance, resembles an inverted J, he presents a mathematical description of an alternative that he calls the ‘J distribution’, a hyperbolic density function truncated at both ends. When multiplied by species richness, R, it becomes the SAD of the sample.

Associations of hypoosmotic swelling test, relative sperm volume shift, aquaporin7 mRNA abundance and bull fertility estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

Kasimanickam, R K; Kasimanickam, V R; Arangasamy, A; Kastelic, J P

2017-02-01

Mammalian sperm are exposed to a natural hypoosmotic environment during male-to-female reproductive tract transition; although this activates sperm motility in vivo, excessive swelling can harm sperm structure and function. Aquaporins (AQPs) is a family of membrane-channel proteins implicated in sperm osmoregulation. The objective was to determine associations among relative sperm volume shift, hypoosmotic swelling test (HOST), sperm aquaporin (AQP) 7 mRNA abundances, and sire conception rate (SCR; fertility estimate) in Holstein bulls at a commercial artificial insemination center. Three or four sires for each full point SCR score from -4 to +4 were included. Each SCR estimate for study bulls (N = 30) was based on > 500 services (mean ± SEM) of 725 ± 13 services/sire). Sperm from a single collection day (two ejaculates) from these commercial Holstein bulls were used. Relative mRNA expression of AQP7 in sperm was determined by polymerase chain reaction. Mean relative sperm volume shift and percentage of sperm reacted in a HOST (% HOST) were determined (400 sperm per bull) after incubating in isoosmotic (300 mOsm/kg) and hypoosmotic (100 mOsm/kg) solutions for 30 min. There was no correlation between %HOST and SCR (r = 0.28 P > 0.1). However, there was a positive correlation between relative sperm volume shift and SCR (r = 0.65, P 2) fertility sire groups. In conclusion, bulls with higher SCR had significantly greater AQP7 mRNA abundance in frozen-thawed sperm. This plausibly contributed to greater regulation of sperm volume shift, which apparently conferred protection from detrimental swelling and impaired functions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

AGB sodium abundances in the globular cluster 47 Tucanae (NGC 104)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johnson, Christian I. [Harvard–Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, MS-15, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); McDonald, Iain; Zijlstra, Albert A., E-mail: cjohnson@cfa.harvard.edu, E-mail: iain.mcdonald-2@manchester.ac.uk, E-mail: albert.zijlstra@manchester.ac.uk [Jodrell Bank Centre for Astrophysics, Alan Turing Building, Manchester M13 9PL (United Kingdom); and others

2015-02-01

A recent analysis comparing the [Na/Fe] distributions of red giant branch (RGB) and asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars in the Galactic globular cluster NGC 6752 found that the ratio of Na-poor to Na-rich stars changes from 30:70 on the RGB to 100:0 on the AGB. The surprising paucity of Na-rich stars on the AGB in NGC 6752 warrants additional investigations to determine if the failure of a significant fraction of stars to ascend the AGB is an attribute common to all globular clusters. Therefore, we present radial velocities, [Fe/H], and [Na/Fe] abundances for 35 AGB stars in the Galactic globular cluster 47 Tucanae (47 Tuc; NGC 104), and compare the AGB [Na/Fe] distribution with a similar RGB sample published previously. The abundances and velocities were derived from high-resolution spectra obtained with the Michigan/Magellan Fiber System and MSpec spectrograph on the Magellan–Clay 6.5 m telescope. We find the average heliocentric radial velocity and [Fe/H] values to be 〈RV{sub helio.}〉 = −18.56 km s{sup −1} (σ = 10.21 km s{sup −1}) and 〈[Fe/H]〉 = −0.68 (σ = 0.08), respectively, in agreement with previous literature estimates. The average [Na/Fe] abundance is 0.12 dex lower in the 47 Tuc AGB sample compared to the RGB sample, and the ratio of Na-poor to Na-rich stars is 63:37 on the AGB and 45:55 on the RGB. However, in contrast to NGC 6752, the two 47 Tuc populations have nearly identical [Na/Fe] dispersion and interquartile range values. The data presented here suggest that only a small fraction (≲20%) of Na-rich stars in 47 Tuc may fail to ascend the AGB, which is a similar result to that observed in M13. Regardless of the cause for the lower average [Na/Fe] abundance in AGB stars, we find that Na-poor stars and at least some Na-rich stars in 47 Tuc evolve through the early AGB phase. The contrasting behavior of Na-rich stars in 47 Tuc and NGC 6752 suggests that the RGB [Na/Fe] abundance alone is insufficient for predicting if a star will

Nitrogen Abundances and the Distance Moduli of the Pleiades and Hyades

OpenAIRE

Miller, Blake; King, Jeremy R.; Chen, Yu; Boesgaard, Ann M.

2013-01-01

Recent reanalyses of HIPPARCOS parallax data confirm a previously noted discrepancy with the Pleiades distance modulus estimated from main-sequence fitting in the color-magnitude diagram. One proposed explanation of this distance modulus discrepancy is a Pleiades He abundance that is significantly larger than the Hyades value. We suggest that, based on our theoretical and observational understanding of Galactic chemical evolution, nitrogen abundances may serve as a proxy for helium abundances...

Sampling point selection for energy estimation in the quasicontinuum method

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beex, L.A.A.; Peerlings, R.H.J.; Geers, M.G.D.

2010-01-01

The quasicontinuum (QC) method reduces computational costs of atomistic calculations by using interpolation between a small number of so-called repatoms to represent the displacements of the complete lattice and by selecting a small number of sampling atoms to estimate the total potential energy of

Quasar Elemental Abundances at High Redshifts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dietrich, M.; Hamann, F.; Shields, J. C.

2003-01-01

the framework of the most recent photoionization models to estimate the metallicity of the gas associated with the high-z quasars. Standard photoionization parameters and the assumption of secondary nitrogen enrichment indicate an average abundance of Z/Z_sol = 4 to 5 in the line emitting gas. Assuming a time...

Practical Bias Correction in Aerial Surveys of Large Mammals: Validation of Hybrid Double-Observer with Sightability Method against Known Abundance of Feral Horse (Equus caballus) Populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Lubow, Bruce C; Ransom, Jason I

2016-01-01

Reliably estimating wildlife abundance is fundamental to effective management. Aerial surveys are one of the only spatially robust tools for estimating large mammal populations, but statistical sampling methods are required to address detection biases that affect accuracy and precision of the estimates. Although various methods for correcting aerial survey bias are employed on large mammal species around the world, these have rarely been rigorously validated. Several populations of feral horses (Equus caballus) in the western United States have been intensively studied, resulting in identification of all unique individuals. This provided a rare opportunity to test aerial survey bias correction on populations of known abundance. We hypothesized that a hybrid method combining simultaneous double-observer and sightability bias correction techniques would accurately estimate abundance. We validated this integrated technique on populations of known size and also on a pair of surveys before and after a known number was removed. Our analysis identified several covariates across the surveys that explained and corrected biases in the estimates. All six tests on known populations produced estimates with deviations from the known value ranging from -8.5% to +13.7% and corrected by our statistical models. Our results validate the hybrid method, highlight its potentially broad applicability, identify some limitations, and provide insight and guidance for improving survey designs.

A random sampling approach for robust estimation of tissue-to-plasma ratio from extremely sparse data.

Science.gov (United States)

Chu, Hui-May; Ette, Ene I

2005-09-02

his study was performed to develop a new nonparametric approach for the estimation of robust tissue-to-plasma ratio from extremely sparsely sampled paired data (ie, one sample each from plasma and tissue per subject). Tissue-to-plasma ratio was estimated from paired/unpaired experimental data using independent time points approach, area under the curve (AUC) values calculated with the naïve data averaging approach, and AUC values calculated using sampling based approaches (eg, the pseudoprofile-based bootstrap [PpbB] approach and the random sampling approach [our proposed approach]). The random sampling approach involves the use of a 2-phase algorithm. The convergence of the sampling/resampling approaches was investigated, as well as the robustness of the estimates produced by different approaches. To evaluate the latter, new data sets were generated by introducing outlier(s) into the real data set. One to 2 concentration values were inflated by 10% to 40% from their original values to produce the outliers. Tissue-to-plasma ratios computed using the independent time points approach varied between 0 and 50 across time points. The ratio obtained from AUC values acquired using the naive data averaging approach was not associated with any measure of uncertainty or variability. Calculating the ratio without regard to pairing yielded poorer estimates. The random sampling and pseudoprofile-based bootstrap approaches yielded tissue-to-plasma ratios with uncertainty and variability. However, the random sampling approach, because of the 2-phase nature of its algorithm, yielded more robust estimates and required fewer replications. Therefore, a 2-phase random sampling approach is proposed for the robust estimation of tissue-to-plasma ratio from extremely sparsely sampled data.

Estimating fish swimming metrics and metabolic rates with accelerometers: the influence of sampling frequency.

Science.gov (United States)

Brownscombe, J W; Lennox, R J; Danylchuk, A J; Cooke, S J

2018-06-21

Accelerometry is growing in popularity for remotely measuring fish swimming metrics, but appropriate sampling frequencies for accurately measuring these metrics are not well studied. This research examined the influence of sampling frequency (1-25 Hz) with tri-axial accelerometer biologgers on estimates of overall dynamic body acceleration (ODBA), tail-beat frequency, swimming speed and metabolic rate of bonefish Albula vulpes in a swim-tunnel respirometer and free-swimming in a wetland mesocosm. In the swim tunnel, sampling frequencies of ≥ 5 Hz were sufficient to establish strong relationships between ODBA, swimming speed and metabolic rate. However, in free-swimming bonefish, estimates of metabolic rate were more variable below 10 Hz. Sampling frequencies should be at least twice the maximum tail-beat frequency to estimate this metric effectively, which is generally higher than those required to estimate ODBA, swimming speed and metabolic rate. While optimal sampling frequency probably varies among species due to tail-beat frequency and swimming style, this study provides a reference point with a medium body-sized sub-carangiform teleost fish, enabling researchers to measure these metrics effectively and maximize study duration. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

CHLORINE ABUNDANCES IN COOL STARS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maas, Z. G.; Pilachowski, C. A. [Indiana University Bloomington, Astronomy Department, Swain West 319, 727 East Third Street, Bloomington, IN 47405-7105 (United States); Hinkle, K., E-mail: zmaas@indiana.edu, E-mail: cpilacho@indiana.edu, E-mail: hinkle@noao.edu [National Optical Astronomy Observatory, P.O. Box 26732, Tucson, AZ 85726 (United States)

2016-12-01

Chlorine abundances are reported in 15 evolved giants and 1 M dwarf in the solar neighborhood. The Cl abundance was measured using the vibration-rotation 1-0 P8 line of H{sup 35}Cl at 3.69851 μ m. The high-resolution L -band spectra were observed using the Phoenix infrared spectrometer on the Kitt Peak Mayall 4 m telescope. The average [{sup 35}Cl/Fe] abundance in stars with −0.72 < [Fe/H] < 0.20 is [{sup 35}Cl/Fe] = (−0.10 ± 0.15) dex. The mean difference between the [{sup 35}Cl/Fe] ratios measured in our stars and chemical evolution model values is (0.16 ± 0.15) dex. The [{sup 35}Cl/Ca] ratio has an offset of ∼0.35 dex above model predictions, suggesting that chemical evolution models are underproducing Cl at the high metallicity range. Abundances of C, N, O, Si, and Ca were also measured in our spectral region and are consistent with F and G dwarfs. The Cl versus O abundances from our sample match Cl abundances measured in planetary nebula and H ii regions. In one star where both H{sup 35}Cl and H{sup 37}Cl could be measured, a {sup 35}Cl/{sup 37}Cl isotope ratio of 2.2 ± 0.4 was found, consistent with values found in the Galactic ISM and predicted chemical evolution models.

Estimation of plant sampling uncertainty: an example based on chemical analysis of moss samples.

Science.gov (United States)

Dołęgowska, Sabina

2016-11-01

In order to estimate the level of uncertainty arising from sampling, 54 samples (primary and duplicate) of the moss species Pleurozium schreberi (Brid.) Mitt. were collected within three forested areas (Wierna Rzeka, Piaski, Posłowice Range) in the Holy Cross Mountains (south-central Poland). During the fieldwork, each primary sample composed of 8 to 10 increments (subsamples) was taken over an area of 10 m 2 whereas duplicate samples were collected in the same way at a distance of 1-2 m. Subsequently, all samples were triple rinsed with deionized water, dried, milled, and digested (8 mL HNO 3 (1:1) + 1 mL 30 % H 2 O 2 ) in a closed microwave system Multiwave 3000. The prepared solutions were analyzed twice for Cu, Fe, Mn, and Zn using FAAS and GFAAS techniques. All datasets were checked for normality and for normally distributed elements (Cu from Piaski, Zn from Posłowice, Fe, Zn from Wierna Rzeka). The sampling uncertainty was computed with (i) classical ANOVA, (ii) classical RANOVA, (iii) modified RANOVA, and (iv) range statistics. For the remaining elements, the sampling uncertainty was calculated with traditional and/or modified RANOVA (if the amount of outliers did not exceed 10 %) or classical ANOVA after Box-Cox transformation (if the amount of outliers exceeded 10 %). The highest concentrations of all elements were found in moss samples from Piaski, whereas the sampling uncertainty calculated with different statistical methods ranged from 4.1 to 22 %.

Stellar Oxygen Abundances

Science.gov (United States)

King, Jeremy

1994-04-01

the beginning of star formation in the disk. It is noted that the slope of the [O/Fe] versus [Fe/H] relation for [Fe/H] >/= -1 depends on the statistical regression utilized. Hence, alleged "observed" [O/H] - age relations, which do not use truly observed O abundances (but, rather, adopt O abundances based on Fe abundances), should be regarded with caution. Systematic effects on O abundances derived from the 6300A [O I] and 7774A O I lines are considered next. While our Solar observations confirm the disagreement between the observed 7774A O I equivalent widths and LTE model calculations at low microns, we stress that Solar O abundance determinations made from flux spectra are in very good agreement with the meteoritic value. We find the 6300A [O I] equivalent width value appears to be uncertain for the Sun. Given this uncertainty, the inability of authors to reproduce each others' 6300A O abundances, and the results of recent quasi-two-stream calculations, we do not believe it can be readily claimed (as is usually done) that these abundances are more reliable than those derived from the 7774A O I triplet. In a sample of relatively metal-rich F and G dwarfs, we find no systematic difference between the 6300 and 7774A O abundances for Teff abundances are also determined for 8 open clusters or moving groups. A very clear relation between cluster age and O abundance is seen; this is in stark contrast to the lack of any relation between age and Fe abundance in the same clusters. Hence, despite possible a priori objections, O abundances may prove to be a superior chronometer (as others have suggested) in the study of Galactic chemical evolution. Somewhat surprisingly, our our [O/Fe] ratios appear to be larger for the younger clusters. The O abundances in the younger clusters are significantly larger than those seen in H II regions, planetary nebulae, and supergiants. It is

Critical point relascope sampling for unbiased volume estimation of downed coarse woody debris

Science.gov (United States)

Jeffrey H. Gove; Michael S. Williams; Mark J. Ducey; Mark J. Ducey

2005-01-01

Critical point relascope sampling is developed and shown to be design-unbiased for the estimation of log volume when used with point relascope sampling for downed coarse woody debris. The method is closely related to critical height sampling for standing trees when trees are first sampled with a wedge prism. Three alternative protocols for determining the critical...

Semiparametric efficient and robust estimation of an unknown symmetric population under arbitrary sample selection bias

KAUST Repository

Ma, Yanyuan

2013-09-01

We propose semiparametric methods to estimate the center and shape of a symmetric population when a representative sample of the population is unavailable due to selection bias. We allow an arbitrary sample selection mechanism determined by the data collection procedure, and we do not impose any parametric form on the population distribution. Under this general framework, we construct a family of consistent estimators of the center that is robust to population model misspecification, and we identify the efficient member that reaches the minimum possible estimation variance. The asymptotic properties and finite sample performance of the estimation and inference procedures are illustrated through theoretical analysis and simulations. A data example is also provided to illustrate the usefulness of the methods in practice. © 2013 American Statistical Association.

Critical length sampling: a method to estimate the volume of downed coarse woody debris

Science.gov (United States)

G& #246; ran St& #229; hl; Jeffrey H. Gove; Michael S. Williams; Mark J. Ducey

2010-01-01

In this paper, critical length sampling for estimating the volume of downed coarse woody debris is presented. Using this method, the volume of downed wood in a stand can be estimated by summing the critical lengths of down logs included in a sample obtained using a relascope or wedge prism; typically, the instrument should be tilted 90° from its usual...

The depth distribution functions of the natural abundances of carbon isotopes in Alfisols thoroughly sampled by thin-layer sampling, and their relation to the dynamics of organic matter in theses soils

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Becker-Heidmann, P.

1989-01-01

The aim of this study was to gain fundamental statements on the relationship between the depth distributions of the natural abundances of 13 C and 14 C isotopes and the dynamics of the organic matter in Alfisols. For this purpose, six Alfisols were investigated: four forest soils from Northern Germany, two of them developed in Loess and two in glacial loam, one West German Loess soil used for fruit-growing and one agricultural granite-gneiss soil from the semiarid part of India. The soil was sampled as succesive horizontal layers of 2 cm depth from an area of 0.5 to 1 m 2 size, starting from the organic down to the C horizon or the lower part of the Bt. This kind of completely thin-layer-wise sampling was applied here for the first time. The carbon content and the natural abundances of the 13 C and the 14 C isotopes of each sample were determined. The δ 13 C value was measured by mass spectrometry. A vacuum preparation line with an electronically controlled cooling unit was constructed thereto. For the determination of the 14 C content, the sample carbon was transferred into benzene, and its activity was measured by liquid scintillation spectrometry. From the combination of the depth distribution functions of the 14 C activity and the δ 13 C value, and with the aid of additional analyses like C/N ratio and particle size distribution, a conclusive interpretation as to the dynamics of the organic matter in the investigated Alfisols is given. (orig./BBR)

Impact of sampling strategy on stream load estimates in till landscape of the Midwest

Science.gov (United States)

Vidon, P.; Hubbard, L.E.; Soyeux, E.

2009-01-01

Accurately estimating various solute loads in streams during storms is critical to accurately determine maximum daily loads for regulatory purposes. This study investigates the impact of sampling strategy on solute load estimates in streams in the US Midwest. Three different solute types (nitrate, magnesium, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC)) and three sampling strategies are assessed. Regardless of the method, the average error on nitrate loads is higher than for magnesium or DOC loads, and all three methods generally underestimate DOC loads and overestimate magnesium loads. Increasing sampling frequency only slightly improves the accuracy of solute load estimates but generally improves the precision of load calculations. This type of investigation is critical for water management and environmental assessment so error on solute load calculations can be taken into account by landscape managers, and sampling strategies optimized as a function of monitoring objectives. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Monitoring waterbird abundance in wetlands: The importance of controlling results for variation in water depth

Science.gov (United States)

Bolduc, F.; Afton, A.D.

2008-01-01

Wetland use by waterbirds is highly dependent on water depth, and depth requirements generally vary among species. Furthermore, water depth within wetlands often varies greatly over time due to unpredictable hydrological events, making comparisons of waterbird abundance among wetlands difficult as effects of habitat variables and water depth are confounded. Species-specific relationships between bird abundance and water depth necessarily are non-linear; thus, we developed a methodology to correct waterbird abundance for variation in water depth, based on the non-parametric regression of these two variables. Accordingly, we used the difference between observed and predicted abundances from non-parametric regression (analogous to parametric residuals) as an estimate of bird abundance at equivalent water depths. We scaled this difference to levels of observed and predicted abundances using the formula: ((observed - predicted abundance)/(observed + predicted abundance)) ?? 100. This estimate also corresponds to the observed:predicted abundance ratio, which allows easy interpretation of results. We illustrated this methodology using two hypothetical species that differed in water depth and wetland preferences. Comparisons of wetlands, using both observed and relative corrected abundances, indicated that relative corrected abundance adequately separates the effect of water depth from the effect of wetlands. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Comparison of prevalence estimation of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis infection by sampling slaughtered cattle with macroscopic lesions vs. systematic sampling.

Science.gov (United States)

Elze, J; Liebler-Tenorio, E; Ziller, M; Köhler, H

2013-07-01

The objective of this study was to identify the most reliable approach for prevalence estimation of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection in clinically healthy slaughtered cattle. Sampling of macroscopically suspect tissue was compared to systematic sampling. Specimens of ileum, jejunum, mesenteric and caecal lymph nodes were examined for MAP infection using bacterial microscopy, culture, histopathology and immunohistochemistry. MAP was found most frequently in caecal lymph nodes, but sampling more tissues optimized the detection rate. Examination by culture was most efficient while combination with histopathology increased the detection rate slightly. MAP was detected in 49/50 animals with macroscopic lesions representing 1.35% of the slaughtered cattle examined. Of 150 systematically sampled macroscopically non-suspect cows, 28.7% were infected with MAP. This indicates that the majority of MAP-positive cattle are slaughtered without evidence of macroscopic lesions and before clinical signs occur. For reliable prevalence estimation of MAP infection in slaughtered cattle, systematic random sampling is essential.

Quantum tomography via compressed sensing: error bounds, sample complexity and efficient estimators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flammia, Steven T; Gross, David; Liu, Yi-Kai; Eisert, Jens

2012-01-01

Intuitively, if a density operator has small rank, then it should be easier to estimate from experimental data, since in this case only a few eigenvectors need to be learned. We prove two complementary results that confirm this intuition. Firstly, we show that a low-rank density matrix can be estimated using fewer copies of the state, i.e. the sample complexity of tomography decreases with the rank. Secondly, we show that unknown low-rank states can be reconstructed from an incomplete set of measurements, using techniques from compressed sensing and matrix completion. These techniques use simple Pauli measurements, and their output can be certified without making any assumptions about the unknown state. In this paper, we present a new theoretical analysis of compressed tomography, based on the restricted isometry property for low-rank matrices. Using these tools, we obtain near-optimal error bounds for the realistic situation where the data contain noise due to finite statistics, and the density matrix is full-rank with decaying eigenvalues. We also obtain upper bounds on the sample complexity of compressed tomography, and almost-matching lower bounds on the sample complexity of any procedure using adaptive sequences of Pauli measurements. Using numerical simulations, we compare the performance of two compressed sensing estimators—the matrix Dantzig selector and the matrix Lasso—with standard maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE). We find that, given comparable experimental resources, the compressed sensing estimators consistently produce higher fidelity state reconstructions than MLE. In addition, the use of an incomplete set of measurements leads to faster classical processing with no loss of accuracy. Finally, we show how to certify the accuracy of a low-rank estimate using direct fidelity estimation, and describe a method for compressed quantum process tomography that works for processes with small Kraus rank and requires only Pauli eigenstate preparations

The use of importance sampling in a trial assessment to obtain converged estimates of radiological risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, K.; Lucas, R.

1986-12-01

In developing a methodology for assessing potential sites for the disposal of radioactive wastes, the Department of the Environment has conducted a series of trial assessment exercises. In order to produce converged estimates of radiological risk using the SYVAC A/C simulation system an efficient sampling procedure is required. Previous work has demonstrated that importance sampling can substantially increase sampling efficiency. This study used importance sampling to produce converged estimates of risk for the first DoE trial assessment. Four major nuclide chains were analysed. In each case importance sampling produced converged risk estimates with between 10 and 170 times fewer runs of the SYVAC A/C model. This increase in sampling efficiency can reduce the total elapsed time required to obtain a converged estimate of risk from one nuclide chain by a factor of 20. The results of this study suggests that the use of importance sampling could reduce the elapsed time required to perform a risk assessment of a potential site by a factor of ten. (author)

An efficient modularized sample-based method to estimate the first-order Sobol' index

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Chenzhao; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2016-01-01

Sobol' index is a prominent methodology in global sensitivity analysis. This paper aims to directly estimate the Sobol' index based only on available input–output samples, even if the underlying model is unavailable. For this purpose, a new method to calculate the first-order Sobol' index is proposed. The innovation is that the conditional variance and mean in the formula of the first-order index are calculated at an unknown but existing location of model inputs, instead of an explicit user-defined location. The proposed method is modularized in two aspects: 1) index calculations for different model inputs are separate and use the same set of samples; and 2) model input sampling, model evaluation, and index calculation are separate. Due to this modularization, the proposed method is capable to compute the first-order index if only input–output samples are available but the underlying model is unavailable, and its computational cost is not proportional to the dimension of the model inputs. In addition, the proposed method can also estimate the first-order index with correlated model inputs. Considering that the first-order index is a desired metric to rank model inputs but current methods can only handle independent model inputs, the proposed method contributes to fill this gap. - Highlights: • An efficient method to estimate the first-order Sobol' index. • Estimate the index from input–output samples directly. • Computational cost is not proportional to the number of model inputs. • Handle both uncorrelated and correlated model inputs.

Chemical homogeneity in the Orion Association: Oxygen abundances of B stars

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lanz T.

2012-02-01

Full Text Available We present non-LTE oxygen abundances for a sample of B stars in the Orion association. The abundance calculations included non-LTE line formation and used fully blanketed non-LTE model atmospheres. The stellar parameters were the same as adopted in the previous study by Cunha & Lambert (1994. We find that the young Orion stars in this sample of 10 stars are described by a single oxygen abundance with an average value of A(O = 8.78 and a small dispersion of ±0.05, dex which is of the order of the uncertainties in the analysis. This average oxygen abundance compares well with the average oxygen abundance obtained previously in Cunha & Lambert (1994: A(O = 8.72 ± 0.13 although this earlier study, based upon non-blanketed model atmospheres in LTE, displayed larger scatter. Small scatter of chemical abundances in Orion B stars had also been found in our previous studies for neon and argon; all based on the same effective temperature scale. The derived oxygen abundance distribution for the Orion association compares well with other results for the oxygen abundance in the solar neighborhood.