WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk mitigation measures

  1. Risk mitigation measures: An important aspect of the environmental risk assessment of pharmaceuticals

    OpenAIRE

    Markus Liebig; Carolin Floeter; Thorsten Hahn; Wolfgang Koch; Andrea Wenzel; Jörg Römbke

    2014-01-01

    Within EU marketing authorization procedures of human and veterinary medicinal products (HMP and VMP), an environmental risk assessment (ERA) has to be performed. In the event that an unacceptable environmental risk is identified, risk mitigation measures (RMM) shall be applied in order to reduce environmental exposure to the pharmaceutical. Within the authorization procedures of HMP, no RMM have been applied so far, except for specific precautions for the disposal of the unused medicinal pro...

  2. Risk Mitigation Measures: An Important Aspect of the Environmental Risk Assessment of Pharmaceuticals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Liebig

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Within EU marketing authorization procedures of human and veterinary medicinal products (HMP and VMP, an environmental risk assessment (ERA has to be performed. In the event that an unacceptable environmental risk is identified, risk mitigation measures (RMM shall be applied in order to reduce environmental exposure to the pharmaceutical. Within the authorization procedures of HMP, no RMM have been applied so far, except for specific precautions for the disposal of the unused medicinal product or waste materials. For VMP, a limited number of RMM do exist. The aim of this study was to develop consistent and efficient RMM. Therefore, existing RMM were compiled from a summary of product characteristics of authorized pharmaceuticals, and new RMM were developed and evaluated. Based on the results, appropriate RMM were applied within the authorization procedures of medicinal products. For HMP, except for the existing precautions for disposal, no further reasonable measures could be developed. For VMP, two specific precautions for disposal and 17 specific precautions for use in animals were proposed as RMM.

  3. The design of risk mitigation measures for several large tailings dams in Ontario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clelland, Lawrence; Noack, Greg; Viles, Keith [Klohn Crippen Berger Ltd, Subbury, (Canada); Donato, Randy; Ross, Trevor [Vale, Sudbury, (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    Vale Inco recently commissioned a risk assessment study on the main dams in the Sudbury central area. The risk assessment included a desktop review of the historical record, subsurface investigations, flood routing analysis, stability analysis and development of a failure modes and effects analyses table for the dams under review. This paper presented an overview of the design of risk mitigation measures at four of the perimeter dams located near the town of Copper Cliff. The present paper comprised a review of the existing stability of the project dams, which indicated several significant issues, including potential for overtopping in the event of a PMF IDF, previous piping related issues and seismic stability issues. remedial measures were designed to reduce risks associated with the identified issues and generally comprised the construction of a new spillway within the P area and stabilising buttresses for the P area project dams.

  4. Sensitivity measures for optimal mitigation of risk and reduction of model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents a new set of reliability sensitivity measures. The purpose is to identify the optimal manner in which to mitigate risk to civil infrastructure, and reduce model uncertainty in order to improve risk estimates. Three measures are presented. One identifies the infrastructure components that should be prioritized for retrofit. Another measure identifies the infrastructure that should be prioritized for more refined modeling. The third measure identifies the models that should be prioritized in research to improve models, for example by gathering new data. The developments are presented in the context of a region with 622 buildings that are subjected to seismicity from several sources. A comprehensive seismic risk analysis of this region is conducted, with over 300 random variables, 30 model types, and 4000 model instances. All models are probabilistic and emphasis is placed on the explicit characterization of epistemic uncertainty. For the considered region, the buildings that should first be retrofitted are found to be pre-code unreinforced masonry buildings. Conversely, concrete shear wall buildings rank highest on the list of buildings that should be subjected to more detailed modeling. The ground shaking intensity model for shallow crustal earthquakes and the concrete shear wall structural response model rank highest on the list of models that should be prioritized by research to improve engineering analysis models. -- Highlights: • Three new sensitivity measures are presented to guide the allocation of resources. • The first measure prioritizes infrastructure for retrofit in order to mitigate risk. • The second measure prioritizes probabilistic models for more detailed modeling. • The third measure prioritizes model types for improvement by data gathering. • The measures are showcased by a regional seismic risk analysis of 622 buildings

  5. A methodological frame for assessing benzene induced leukemia risk mitigation due to policy measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The study relies on the development of a methodology for assessing the determinants that comprise the overall leukemia risk due to benzene exposure and how these are affected by outdoor and indoor air quality regulation. An integrated modeling environment was constructed comprising traffic emissions, dispersion models, human exposure models and a coupled internal dose/biology-based dose–response risk assessment model, in order to assess the benzene imposed leukemia risk, as much as the impact of traffic fleet renewal and smoking banning to these levels. Regarding traffic fleet renewal, several “what if” scenarios were tested. The detailed full-chain methodology was applied in a South-Eastern European urban setting in Greece and a limited version of the methodology in Helsinki. Non-smoking population runs an average risk equal to 4.1 · 10?5 compared to 23.4 · 10?5 for smokers. The estimated lifetime risk for the examined occupational groups was higher than the one estimated for the general public by 10–20%. Active smoking constitutes a dominant parameter for benzene-attributable leukemia risk, much stronger than any related activity, occupational or not. From the assessment of mitigation policies it was found that the associated leukemia risk in the optimum traffic fleet scenario could be reduced by up to 85% for non-smokers and up to 8% for smokers. On the contrary, smoking banning provided smaller gains for (7% for non-smokers, 1% for smokers), while for Helsinki, smoking policies were found to be more efficient than traffic fleet renewal. The methodology proposed above provides a general framework for assessing aggregated exposure and the consequent leukemia risk from benzene (incorporating mechanistic data), capturing exposure and internal dosimetry dynamics, translating changes in exposure determinants to actual changes in population risk, providing a valuable tool for risk management evaluation and consequently to policy support. - Highlights: ? A comprehensive exposure analysis is greatly facilitated by the thorough use of measurement data and modeling tools. ? Incorporation of internal dose metrics contributes to significant refinement of exposure assessment. ? Similar community policies have completely different effect with respect to different countries/cities

  6. Influence of regulatory uncertainty on capacity investments – Are investments in new technologies a risk mitigation measure?

    OpenAIRE

    Schwark, Bastian

    2009-01-01

    Understanding the investment decisions of power companies is vital for a regulator as particularly deficient investments in generation capacity could jeopardize the market in the long run. Considering potential risks that could hamper investments, the paper focuses on regulatory uncertainty and firms’ behavior to mitigate risk. The question of how uncertainty influences investment decisions has been explained by a number of researchers. In the specific case of regulatory uncertainty it is ...

  7. Communicating risk and promoting disease mitigation measures in epidemics and emerging disease settings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiavo, Renata; Leung, May May; Brown, Mason

    2014-01-01

    Objective This review aims to identify and assess evidence on interventions to communicate risk and promote disease mitigation measures in epidemics and emerging disease outbreak settings. The study focuses on data that are relevant to low and middle-income country (LMIC) settings. Methods We conducted a comprehensive literature search using five major electronic databases (Pubmed Medline, Biomed Central, EMBASE, Science of Citation Index, and Cochrane Library) and other sources to identify relevant studies published from January 2002 to July 2013. The review was guided by the socio-ecological model/perspective of public health and the ideation theory and focused on interventions at the community, healthcare, and multi-sectoral settings, which also reflect key intervention levels of the Ottawa Charter for Health Promotion. Eligible quantitative studies were selected according to specific study criteria and assessed using the Critical Appraisal Skills Program (CASP) framework. Conversely, qualitative studies, reviews, case studies, and editorials were not included. Studies were selected by two independent reviewers. Results Twenty-nine relevant studies from 16 countries were included. Most studies focused on a single intervention or intervention level, rather than multi-sectoral interventions. The majority of the evidence relates to programs aimed at behavioral and social results (or relevant intermediate steps) within a specific population group. Two studies included implications for improvements in health service delivery, two studies examined the intervention’s impact on health systems-related outcomes, and three had also implications for environmental health outcomes. Cost- and health equity-related implications for select evidence were also discussed. Conclusions The paucity of well-designed quantitative evaluations of interventions to communicate health risk and promote disease control measures in LMICs does not allow for any definitive conclusions. Yet, the review identified several promising interventions and areas for future investigation. Among them, community-based and participatory interventions seemed to be central within epidemic and emerging disease settings, particularly in low-resource settings. Yet, evidence on their effectiveness is not conclusive and needs to be explored by future studies. Other promising areas for future investigation include multi-component and multi-sectoral approaches to intervention design. Major research gaps referred to any evaluation of the impact of these kinds of interventions on health policy adoption and/or implementation, and social determinants of health. Research on cost-effectiveness also needs to be strengthened. This review identified several research gaps and questions, and discusses potential future directions for increasing capacity for future and more rigorous assessments. PMID:24649867

  8. A methodological frame for assessing benzene induced leukemia risk mitigation due to policy measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karakitsios, Spyros P; Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis ?; Gotti, Alberto; Kassomenos, Pavlos A; Pilidis, Georgios A

    2013-01-15

    The study relies on the development of a methodology for assessing the determinants that comprise the overall leukemia risk due to benzene exposure and how these are affected by outdoor and indoor air quality regulation. An integrated modeling environment was constructed comprising traffic emissions, dispersion models, human exposure models and a coupled internal dose/biology-based dose-response risk assessment model, in order to assess the benzene imposed leukemia risk, as much as the impact of traffic fleet renewal and smoking banning to these levels. Regarding traffic fleet renewal, several "what if" scenarios were tested. The detailed full-chain methodology was applied in a South-Eastern European urban setting in Greece and a limited version of the methodology in Helsinki. Non-smoking population runs an average risk equal to 4.1·10(-5) compared to 23.4·10(-5) for smokers. The estimated lifetime risk for the examined occupational groups was higher than the one estimated for the general public by 10-20%. Active smoking constitutes a dominant parameter for benzene-attributable leukemia risk, much stronger than any related activity, occupational or not. From the assessment of mitigation policies it was found that the associated leukemia risk in the optimum traffic fleet scenario could be reduced by up to 85% for non-smokers and up to 8% for smokers. On the contrary, smoking banning provided smaller gains for (7% for non-smokers, 1% for smokers), while for Helsinki, smoking policies were found to be more efficient than traffic fleet renewal. The methodology proposed above provides a general framework for assessing aggregated exposure and the consequent leukemia risk from benzene (incorporating mechanistic data), capturing exposure and internal dosimetry dynamics, translating changes in exposure determinants to actual changes in population risk, providing a valuable tool for risk management evaluation and consequently to policy support. PMID:23220388

  9. Landslides risk mitigation along lifelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capparelli, G.; Versace, P.; Artese, G.; Costanzo, S.; Corsonello, P.; Di Massa, G.; Mendicino, G.; Maletta, D.; Leone, S.; Muto, F.; Senatore, A.; Troncone, A.; Conte, E.; Galletta, D.

    2012-04-01

    The paper describes an integrated, innovative and efficient solution to manage risk issues associated to landslides interfering with infrastructures. The research project was submitted for financial support in the framework of the Multi -regional Operational Programme 2007-13: Research and Competitiveness funded by the Ministry of Research (MIUR) and co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund. The project is aimed to developing and demonstrating an integrated system of monitoring, early warning and mitigation of landslides risk. The final goal is to timely identify potentially dangerous landslides, and to activate all needed impact mitigation measures, including the information delivery. The essential components of the system include monitoring arrays, telecommunication networks and scenario simulation models, assisted by a data acquisition and processing centre, and a traffic control centres. Upon integration, the system will be experimentally validated and demonstrated over ca. 200 km of three highway sections, crossing the regions of Campania, Basilicata, Calabria and Sicily. Progress in the state of art is represented by the developments in the field of environmental monitoring and in the mathematical modeling of landslides and by the development of services for traffic management. The approach to the problem corresponds to a "systemic logics" where each developed component foresees different interchangeable technological solutions to maximize the operational flexibility. The final system may be configured as a simple to complex structure, including different configurations to deal with different scenarios. Specifically, six different monitoring systems will be realized: three "point" systems, made up of a network of locally measuring sensors, and three "area" systems to remotely measure the displacements of large areas. Each network will be fully integrated and connected to a unique data transmission system. Standardized and shared procedures for the identification of risk scenarios will be developed, concerning the surveys to be carried out, the procedures for each type of on-site testing and guidelines and dynamic templates for presentations of results, such as highway risk maps e.g. The setting up of data acquisition and processing centre and traffic control centre are the core of the integrated system. The DAC (data acquisition center, newly designed) will acquire and process data varying in intensity, dimensions, characteristics and information content. The Traffic Control Center (TCC) is meant to integrate the scientific and the management aspects of hydrological risk monitoring and early warning. The overall system is expected to benefit of the development of new, advanced mathematical models on landslide triggers and propagation. Triggering models will be empirical or hydrological, represented by simple empirical relationships, obtained by linking the antecedent rainfall and the landslide time occurrence, and complete models identified through more complex expressions that take into account different components as the specific site conditions, the mechanical, hydraulic and physical properties of soils and slopes, the local seepage conditions and their contribution to soil strength. The industrial partners of the University of Calabria are Autostrade Tech, Strago and TD Group, with the Universities of Firenze and Catania acting research Partners.

  10. Adaptation, mitigation and risk-taking in climate policy

    OpenAIRE

    Auerswald, Heike; Konrad, Kai A.; Thum, Marcel

    2011-01-01

    The future consequences of climate change are highly uncertain. Today, the exact size of possible future damages are widely unknown. Governments try to cope with these risks by investing in mitigation and adaptation measures. Mitigation aims at a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions whereas adaptation reduces the follow-up costs of climate change. In contrast to the existing literature, we explicitly model the decision of risk-averse governments on mitigation and adaptation policies. Further...

  11. Urban Policies and Earthquake Risk Mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper aims at proposing some considerations about some recent experiences of research carried out on the theme of earthquake risk mitigation and combining policies and actions of mitigation with urban development strategies. The objective was to go beyond the classical methodological approach aiming at defining a 'technical' evaluation of the earthquake risk through a procedure which can correlate the three 'components' of danger, exposure and vulnerability. These researches experiment, in terms of methodology and application, with a new category of interpretation and strategy: the so-called Struttura Urbana Minima (Minimum urban structure).Actually, the introduction of the Struttura Urbana Minima establishes a different approach towards the theme of safety in the field of earthquake risk, since it leads to a wider viewpoint, combining the building aspect of the issue with the purely urban one, involving not only town planning, but also social and managerial implications.In this sense the constituent logic of these researches is strengthened by two fundamental issues:- The social awareness of earthquake;- The inclusion of mitigation policies in the ordinary strategies for town and territory management. Three main aspects of the first point, that is of the 'social awareness of earthquake', characterize this issue and demand to be considered within a prevention policy:- The central role of the risk as a social production,- The central role of the local community conhe central role of the local community consent,- The central role of the local community capability to planTherefore, consent, considered not only as acceptance, but above all as participation in the elaboration and implementation of choices, plays a crucial role in the wider issue of prevention policies.As far as the second point is concerned, the inclusion of preventive mitigation policies in ordinary strategies for the town and territory management demands the identification of criteria of choice and priorities of intervention and, as a consequence, the opportunity to promote an approach to the theme of mitigation policies realized through strategic principles and systemic logics able to shift the problem from the building to the town. The critical aspects of this theme are tied to three main issues:- The sharing of the way of interpreting town planning,- The integration of multiple objectives in one intervention tool,- The measures which can be adopted for an effective prevention policy.The above-mentioned elements have inspired these researches experimented on Calabrian towns.In particular, in this paper the experience carried out on Reggio Calabria is proposed. Its cultural roots derive from the principles and criteria experimented in small Calabrian towns, but it modifies them according to the complexity of the urban settlement, introducing also some experimental concepts and methodological approaches

  12. Risk measures

    OpenAIRE

    Albrecht, Peter

    2006-01-01

    The present review of (financial) risk measures, prepared for the Encyclopaedia of Actuarial Science, first distinguishes two conceptions of risk. Risk of the first kind conceives risk as the magnitude of (one- or two-sided) deviations from a target, whereas risk of the second kind conceives risk as necessary capital or necessary premium, respectively. Some important axiomatic characterizations of risk measures are reviewed, including a characterization of a correspondence between risk measur...

  13. Information security risk assessment, aggregation, and mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Voss, T.; Lenstra, Arjen K.

    2004-01-01

    As part of their compliance process with the Basel 2 operational risk management requirements, banks must define how they deal with information security risk management. In this paper we describe work in progress on a new quantitative model to assess and aggregate information security risks that is currently under development for deployment. We show how to find a risk mitigation strategy that is optimal with respect to the model used and the available budget.

  14. Coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures of hydro-meteorological risks: the importance of establishing a link between emergency management and spatial planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prenger-Berninghoff, Kathrin; Cortes, V. Juliette; Aye, Zar Chi; Sprague, Teresa

    2013-04-01

    The management of natural hazards involves, as generally known, the four stages of the risk management cycle: Prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. Accordingly, the mitigation of disasters can be performed in terms of short-term and long-term purposes. Whereas emergency management or civil protection helps to strengthen a community's capacity to be better prepared for natural hazards and to better respond in case a disaster strikes, thus addressing the short-term perspective, spatial planning serves long-term planning goals and can therefore implement long-term prevention measures. A purposefully applied risk mitigation strategy requires coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures and thus an effective coordination of emergency management and spatial planning. Several actors are involved in risk management and should consequently be linked throughout the whole risk management cycle. However, these actors, partly because of a historically fragmented administrative system, are hardly connected to each other, with spatial planning only having a negligible role compared to other actors1, a problem to which Young (2002) referred to as the "problem of interplay". In contrast, information transfer and decision-taking happen at the same time and are not coordinated among different actors. This applies to the prevention and preparedness phase as well as to the recovery phase, which basically constitutes the prevention phase for the next disaster2. Since investments in both risk prevention and emergency preparedness and response are considered necessary, a better coordination of the two approaches is required. In this regard, Decision Support Systems (DSS) can be useful in order to provide support in the decision-making aspect of risk management. The research work currently undertaken examines the problem of interplay in the four case study areas of the Marie Curie ITN, CHANGES3. The link between different risk management actors will be explored by means of exploratory questionnaires and interviews with government agencies, local administrations, community and research organizations on each study site. First results provided will address the general role of spatial planning in risk management. Additionally, preliminary observations are made in regard to the coordination of emergency preparedness and long-term spatial planning activities. The observations consider that integration facilitates proactive strategies that aim at preventing disaster occurrence and promote interaction between involved parties. Finally, consideration is given to the potential use of a DSS tool to cover both aspects of spatial planning and emergency management in the risk management cycle.

  15. 12 CFR 702.108 - Risk mitigation credit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ...mitigation of: (1) Credit risk; or (2) Interest rate risk as demonstrated by economic...case of a FISCU seeking a risk mitigation credit— (1) Before...provide prompt notice of its decision to the appropriate State...

  16. Emerging Radiation Health-Risk Mitigation Technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Past space missions beyond the confines of the Earth's protective magnetic field have been of short duration and protection from the effects of solar particle events was of primary concern. The extension of operational infrastructure beyond low-Earth orbit to enable routine access to more interesting regions of space will require protection from the hazards of the accumulated exposures of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR). There are significant challenges in providing protection from the long-duration exposure to GCR: the human risks to the exposures are highly uncertain and safety requirements places unreasonable demands in supplying sufficient shielding materials in the design. A vigorous approach to future radiation health-risk mitigation requires a triage of techniques (using biological and technical factors) and reduction of the uncertainty in radiation risk models. The present paper discusses the triage of factors for risk mitigation with associated materials issues and engineering design methods

  17. A bottom up approach to implementing multi-purpose mitigation measures for reducing flood risk and improving water quality in agricultural catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, M. E.; Quinn, P. F.; Jonczyk, J.; Burke, S.; Nicholson, A.; Barber, N.; Owen, G.; Palmer, M.

    2012-04-01

    A number of studies have suggested that there is evidence that modern land-use management practices have increased surface runoff at the local scale. There is an urgent need for interventions to reduce the risk of flooding whilst also delivering multiple benefits (doing more for less). There are many settlements, which regularly suffer from flooding, which would benefit from upstream mitigation measures. Interventions at the source of runoff generation can have a positive impact on the flood hydrograph downstream. An integrated approach to managing runoff can also have multiple benefits on pollution and ecology, which could lead to beneficial impacts at the catchment scale. Belford, a small community in Northumberland, UK has suffered from an increased number of flood events over the past ten years. There is currently support within the English and Welsh Environment Agency for sustainable flood management solutions such as storage ponds, wetlands, beaver dams and willow riparian features which are being trialled at Belford. These runoff attenuation features (RAFs) also have benefits to water quality, capture sediment and create new ecological zones. Although the process by which numerous RAFs were deployed in Belford proved initially difficult to achieve within the existing regulatory framework, an efficient uptake process is now supported by local regulators including several branches of the Environment Agency. The Belford runoff management framework provides a step by step guide to implementing mitigation measures in the Belford burn catchment and could be easily applied to other catchments at a similar scale. The approach is based on implementing mitigation measures through engaging with catchment stakeholders and using solid field science and management protocols.

  18. Mitigation of foreign Direct investment risk and hedging

    OpenAIRE

    Wahl, Jack E.; Broll, Udo

    2009-01-01

    Instruments of risk mitigation play an important role in managing country risk within the foreign direct investment (FDI) decision. Our study assesses country risk by state-dependent preferences and introduces futures contracts as a tool of risk mitigation. We show that country risk assessments related to foreign direct investment do not matter if the multinational firm enters currency futures markets. Besides currency risk, multinationals cross-hedge country risk via the derivatives market. ...

  19. Disease management mitigates risk of pathogen transmission from maricultured salmonids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jones, Simon R. M.; Bruno, David W.

    2015-01-01

    Open marine net pens facilitate virus and sea lice transfer, occasionally leading to infections and outbreaks of disease in farmed salmon. A review of 3 salmon pathogens (infectious salmon anaemia virus [ISAV], salmon alphavirus [SAV] and the salmon louse Lepeophtheirus salmonis) shows that increased risk of exposure to neighbouring farms is inversely related to distance from and directly related to biomass at the source of infection. Epidemiological techniques integrating data from oceanography, diagnostics and pathogen shedding rates and viability contribute to improved understanding of pathogen transmission pathways among farms and permit the designation of areas of risk associated with sources of infection. Occupation of an area of risk may increase the likelihood of exposure, infection and disease among susceptible fish. Disease mitigation in mariculture occurs at 2 scales: area-based (coordinated stocking, harvesting and fallowing) and farm-based (vaccination, early pathogen detection, veterinary prescribed treatments and depopulation or early harvest in the event of viral disease). Collectively, implementation of mitigation measures results in virus disease outbreaks of shorter duration with lower mortality and therefore reduces the likelihood of pathogen transmission. In contrast, the mitigation of sea lice transmission is less likely to be effective in some areas due to the loss of parasite sensitivity to therapeutants and to dissemination of larval lice when parasites occur below management thresholds. For wild populations, risk of pathogen spillback is estimated from farm-based epidemiological data; however, validation, particularly for ISAV and SAV, is required using direct surveillance.

  20. Mitigating Systemic Risks in Future Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Manzalini, Antonio

    2012-01-01

    This paper elaborates about the potential risk of systemic instabilities in future networks and proposes a methodology to mitigate it. The starting concept is modeling the network as a complex environment (e.g. ecosystem) of resources and associated functional controllers in a continuous and dynamic game of cooperation - competition. Methodology foresees defining and associating utility functions to these controllers and elaborating a global utility function (as a function of the controllers' utility functions) for the overall network. It is conjectured that the optimization of the global utility function ensures network stability and security evaluations. Paper concludes arguing that self-governance (with limited human intervention) is possible provided that proper local, global control rules are coded into these utility functions optimization processes.

  1. Risk measuring under liquidity risk

    OpenAIRE

    Allaj, Erindi

    2014-01-01

    We present a general framework for measuring the liquidity risk. The theoretical framework defines a class of risk measures that incorporate the liquidity risk into the standard risk measures. We consider a one-period risk measurement model. The liquidity risk is defined as the risk that a given security or a portfolio of securities cannot be easily sold or bought by the financial institutions without causing significant changes in prices. The new risk measures present some ...

  2. Risk perception and volcanic hazard mitigation: Individual and social perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paton, Douglas; Smith, Leigh; Daly, Michele; Johnston, David

    2008-05-01

    This paper discusses how people's interpretation of their experience of volcanic hazards and public volcanic hazard education programs influences their risk perception and whether or not they adopt measures that can mitigate their risk. Drawing on four studies of volcanic risk perception and preparedness, the paper first examines why experiencing volcanic hazards need not necessarily motivate people to prepare for future volcanic crises. This work introduces how effective risk communication requires communities and civic agencies to play complementary roles in the risk management process. Next, the findings of a study evaluating the effectiveness of a public volcanic hazard education program introduce the important role that social interaction amongst community members plays in risk management. Building on the conclusions of these studies, a model that depicts preparing as a social process is developed and tested. The model predicts that it is the quality of the relationships between people, communities and civic agencies that determines whether people adopt measures that can reduce their risk from volcanic hazard consequences. The implications of the model for conceptualizing and delivering volcanic hazard public education programs in ways that accommodate these relationships is discussed.

  3. A simplified quasi-2d model of the Po River for the identification of large-scale flood-risk mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domeneghetti, A.; Castellarin, A.; Brath, A.; Colombo, A.

    2012-04-01

    The Flood Directive 2007/60/EC (European Commission, 2007) promotes a paradigm shift from engineering defences to flood-risk mitigation and management strategies. The actual implementation of the Directive necessarily implies the development of reliable procedures for assessing the flood-risk associated with flood prone areas. These procedures can then be adopted by Institutions and public bodies in charge of formulating robust flood risk management strategies for large European rivers for identifying optimal policies for a given area. Optimal policies need to be identified at catchment scale through a holistic approach, and this applies also to large European rivers. Our study focuses on the middle-lower reach of the River Po (~350 km), the longest Italian river and the largest in terms of streamflow. We show a large-scale application of a quasi two-dimensional (quasi-2D) model to support the identification of the optimal management strategy of an extreme flood event (recurrence interval ~500 years) by means of controlled flooding (flooding of portions of the flood-prone area located outside the main embankments through ad-hoc lateral structures) for a flood-prone area of ~6,1x103 square kilometres. Different flooding scenarios associated with several possible geometric configurations of the system of lateral structures are compared in terms of flood losses, characterized through the analysis of CORINE land cover data relative to the period 1990-2006. The results of the study show how a simplified quasi-2D model may be effectively used to: (1) provide useful indications on the flood-risk associated with a large flood prone area; (2) support the identification of optimal flood-risk mitigation strategies and (3) assess the impact of recent land-use dynamics (i.e. population-growth, changes agricultural practices, etc.) on flood-risk.

  4. Phishing Techniques and Mitigating the Associated Security Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc A. Rader

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Organizations invest heavily in technicalcontrols for their Information Assurance (IA infrastructure.These technical controls mitigate and reduce the risk of damage caused by outsider attacks. Mostorganizations rely on training to mitigate and reduce risk of non-technical attacks such as socialengineering. Organizations lump IA training into small modules that personnel typically rush throughbecause the training programs lack enough depth and creativity to keep a trainee engaged. The key toretaining knowledge is making the information memorable. This paper describes common and emergingattack vectors and how to lower and mitigate the associated risks.

  5. Influence of behavioral biases on the assessment of multi-hazard risks and the implementation of multi-hazard risks mitigation measures: case study of multi-hazard cyclone shelters in Tamil Nadu, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komendantova, Nadejda; Patt, Anthony

    2013-04-01

    In December 2004, a multiple hazards event devastated the Tamil Nadu province of India. The Sumatra -Andaman earthquake with a magnitude of Mw=9.1-9.3 caused the Indian Ocean tsunami with wave heights up to 30 m, and flooding that reached up to two kilometers inland in some locations. More than 7,790 persons were killed in the province of Tamil Nadu, with 206 in its capital Chennai. The time lag between the earthquake and the tsunami's arrival in India was over an hour, therefore, if a suitable early warning system existed, a proper means of communicating the warning and shelters existing for people would exist, than while this would not have prevented the destruction of infrastructure, several thousands of human lives would have been saved. India has over forty years of experience in the construction of cyclone shelters. With additional efforts and investment, these shelters could be adapted to other types of hazards such as tsunamis and flooding, as well as the construction of new multi-hazard cyclone shelters (MPCS). It would therefore be possible to mitigate one hazard such as cyclones by the construction of a network of shelters while at the same time adapting these shelters to also deal with, for example, tsunamis, with some additional investment. In this historical case, the failure to consider multiple hazards caused significant human losses. The current paper investigates the patterns of the national decision-making process with regards to multiple hazards mitigation measures and how the presence of behavioral and cognitive biases influenced the perceptions of the probabilities of multiple hazards and the choices made for their mitigation by the national decision-makers. Our methodology was based on the analysis of existing reports from national and international organizations as well as available scientific literature on behavioral economics and natural hazards. The results identified several biases in the national decision-making process when the construction of cyclone shelters was being undertaken. The availability heuristics caused a perception of low probability of tsunami following an earthquake, as the last large similar event happened over a hundred years ago. Another led to a situation when decisions were taken on the basis of experience and not statistical evidence, namely, experience showed that the so-called "Ring of Fire" generates underground earthquakes and tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean. This knowledge made decision-makers to neglect the numerical estimations about probability of underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean even though seismologists were warning about probability of a large underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean. The bounded rationality bias led to misperception of signals from the early warning center in the Pacific Ocean. The resulting limited concern resulted in risk mitigation measures that considered cyclone risks, but much less about tsunami. Under loss aversion considerations, the decision-makers perceived the losses connected with the necessary additional investment as being greater than benefits from mitigating a less probable hazard.

  6. Industrial Risk Communication and Conflict Mitigation Strategies. Industrial Risk Communication and Conflict Mitigation Strategies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmelo Di Mauro

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Lombardy is one of the most densely populated and industrialized regions in Europe, where nearly 280 Seveso sites are located. The issue of risk communication, as set by the European Seveso Directive is therefore of high relevance in this region. Nevertheless, the Lombardy Region Authorities consider that the implementation of the Directive’s provisions is too weak. Therefore, the Lombardy Region financed an exploratory research in November 2009 and all the research activities ended in February 2011. (Éupolis Lombardia 2011. The research was conducted in order to estimate the existing gaps in risk communication, the subsequent conflicts and to evaluate how to improve the participation of the population in the emergency preparedness activities. The main goal of the project was to improve the communication of risk to the population exposed to industrial risks, hence to mitigate the related social conflict on the basis of an institutional learning process involving governmental bodies industrial organizations and the population. The project was supported by a multidisciplinary research group, which investigated the following aspects:- the regional activities regarding the risk communication at local level;- the nature and status of the main stakeholders groups’ perception of the industrial risks and the existing conflicts, collected through interviews and groups’ discussions;- the analysis of the gaps and ways of improvement related to an effective strategy of communication between industry, population and emergency services. A forum involving all the institutional stakeholders was set to discuss this issue.The paper reports the main results of the research and illustrates the potential strategies to improve the risk communication and the population participation and preparedness for the Lombardy Region. The results showed that the level of risk perception of the population in Lombardy is still too low to define a program of communication without having considered in more detail the mode of involvement of the population. In a context characterized by a distorted perception of risk, the low risk perception could be a sensitive issue that may impend the start of the communication process because it could generate anxiety, alarmism or unnecessary conflicts. Nevertheless, the experiments carried out showed that the population potentially exposed to the industrial risks, if properly involved, shows particular interest in issues related to prevention and self-protection. According to the main results of research project, the involvement of population into a dedicated programme on risk communication should not present a significant concern and the conflict between the industries and the population does not appear to be a particular obstacle to risk communication. On the contrary it was shown that collaboration could be beneficial for all the stakeholders while the most significant limitation to this process, is the low public perception of the problem.Lombardy is one of the most densely populated and industrialized regions in Europe, where nearly 280 Seveso sites are located. The issue of risk communication, as set by the European Seveso Directive is therefore of high relevance in this region. Nevertheless, the Lombardy Region Authorities consider that the implementation of the Directive’s provisions is too weak. Therefore, the Lombardy Region financed an exploratory research in November 2009 and all the research activities ended in February 2011. (Éupolis Lombardia 2011. The research was conducted in order to estimate the existing gaps in risk communication, the subsequent conflicts and to evaluate how to improve the participation of the population in the emergency preparedness activities. The main goal of the project was to improve the communication of risk to the population exposed to industrial risks, hence to mitigate the related social conflict on the basis of an institutional learning process involving governmental bodies industrial organizations and the population. The project was supported

  7. Phishing Techniques and Mitigating the Associated Security Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Rader, Marc A.; Rahman, Syed M.

    2013-01-01

    Organizations invest heavily in technicalcontrols for their Information Assurance (IA) infrastructure.These technical controls mitigate and reduce the risk of damage caused by outsider attacks. Mostorganizations rely on training to mitigate and reduce risk of non-technical attacks such as socialengineering. Organizations lump IA training into small modules that personnel typically rush throughbecause the training programs lack enough depth and creativity to keep a trainee engaged. The key tor...

  8. Efficiency of different radon mitigation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In particular high radon areas in Germany and Austria, the radon concentrations indoors reach maximum values of approximately 100 kBq/m3. In these regions the only important radon source is the soil which either shows a very high uranium content or makes a fast radon transport possible. The feasibility and the effectiveness of different radon mitigation measures in some of the highest exposed houses were tested. The determinations of radon concentrations were carried out by various types of measuring systems such as charcoal or alpha track dosimeters. The radon exhalation rates, an important factor for radon mitigation, were measured directly by electrostatic deposition of Polonium-218 onto a detector and subsequent alpha spectroscopy. Three general reconstruction measures against radon entry into houses could be proposed, the increase of indoor ventilation, the sealing of the building against the soil and different types of pressure variation. For each house an individual mitigation plan has to be set up including a decision for a particular measure or a combination of different methods. (4 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.)

  9. Public perception of flood risks, flood forecasting and mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Brilly, M.; Polic, M.

    2005-01-01

    A multidisciplinary and integrated approach to the flood mitigation decision making process should provide the best response of society in a flood hazard situation including preparation works and post hazard mitigation. In Slovenia, there is a great lack of data on social aspects and public response to flood mitigation measures and information management. In this paper, two studies of flood perception in the Slovenian town Celje are represented. During its history, Celje was often exposed to ...

  10. Transport and greenhouse gas emissions : Mitigation measures

    OpenAIRE

    Giacobbe, Nora; Ao?n, Laura; Frediani, Julieta C.; Ravella, Olga

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a comparative analysis of transportation-driven GHG emissions as well as a set of mitigation measures in four mid-sized Argentinian cities. Passenger and freight transport were considered as part of the mobility system. Information was gathered through origin/destination surveys and data provided by freight companies with urban destinations. According to the results of a research project, 36.98% of the population in the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires produces 70.12% of ...

  11. A review of risk perceptions and other factors that influence flood mitigation behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bubeck, P; Botzen, W J W; Aerts, J C J H

    2012-09-01

    In flood risk management, a shift can be observed toward more integrated approaches that increasingly address the role of private households in implementing flood damage mitigation measures. This has resulted in a growing number of studies into the supposed positive relationship between individual flood risk perceptions and mitigation behavior. Our literature review shows, however, that, actually, this relationship is hardly observed in empirical studies. Two arguments are provided as an explanation. First, on the basis of protection motivation theory, a theoretical framework is discussed suggesting that individuals' high-risk perceptions need to be accompanied by coping appraisal to result in a protective response. Second, it is pointed out that possible feedback from already-adopted mitigation measures on risk perceptions has hardly been considered by current studies. In addition, we also provide a review of factors that drive precautionary behavior other than risk perceptions. It is found that factors such as coping appraisal are consistently related to mitigation behavior. We conclude, therefore, that the current focus on risk perceptions as a means to explain and promote private flood mitigation behavior is not supported on either theoretical or empirical grounds. PMID:22394258

  12. Radon measurement and mitigation activity in Finland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radon prevention, measurement and mitigation activities have been increasing in Finland during the 2000's. Nowadays, many municipal authorities, especially those located in high-radon areas, require radon prevention measures. This has activated radon measurements. Owners of new houses having radon piping installed under the floor slab are the most active group to measure and reduce the found high-radon values. Their radon awareness is apparently better than on the average, and the existing piping makes it easier and cheaper to reduce the radon levels. Local campaigns involving invitation flyers mailed to the residents have been a cost-effective means to activate measurements of older houses. So far 116 611 dwellings in low-rise residential buildings have been measured. At least 15 % of the 16 860 dwellings found to exceed the reference level of 400 Bq m-3 had their indoor radon level reduced below that. (authors)

  13. Severe accident mitigation measures in Swedish nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on the results of the research project FILTRA equipment for filtered atmospheric venting of the reactor containments is being installed at the Barseback twin BWR nuclear power plant in Sweden. For the other ten Swedish nuclear units a program has been initiated for a more general assessment of the risk reductions offered by various mitigating strategies. The purpose of this program is to provide a basis for decisions in 1985 as to which measures, if any, should be implemented to be operable no later than 1989. in 1985 as to which measures, if any, should be implemented to be operable no later than 1989

  14. Mitigating the risk of radiation-induced cancers: limitations and paradigms in drug development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, Stephen S; Jorgensen, Timothy J; Kennedy, Ann R; Boice, John D; Shapiro, Alla; Hu, Tom C-C; Moyer, Brian R; Grace, Marcy B; Kelloff, Gary J; Fenech, Michael; Prasanna, Pataje G S; Coleman, C Norman

    2014-06-01

    The United States radiation medical countermeasures (MCM) programme for radiological and nuclear incidents has been focusing on developing mitigators for the acute radiation syndrome (ARS) and delayed effects of acute radiation exposure (DEARE), and biodosimetry technologies to provide radiation dose assessments for guiding treatment. Because a nuclear accident or terrorist incident could potentially expose a large number of people to low to moderate doses of ionising radiation, and thus increase their excess lifetime cancer risk, there is an interest in developing mitigators for this purpose. This article discusses the current status, issues, and challenges regarding development of mitigators against radiation-induced cancers. The challenges of developing mitigators for ARS include: the long latency between exposure and cancer manifestation, limitations of animal models, potential side effects of the mitigator itself, potential need for long-term use, the complexity of human trials to demonstrate effectiveness, and statistical power constraints for measuring health risks (and reduction of health risks after mitigation) following relatively low radiation doses (<0.75 Gy). Nevertheless, progress in the understanding of the molecular mechanisms resulting in radiation injury, along with parallel progress in dose assessment technologies, make this an opportune, if not critical, time to invest in research strategies that result in the development of agents to lower the risk of radiation-induced cancers for populations that survive a significant radiation exposure incident. PMID:24727460

  15. Assessing and Mitigating Risks in Computer Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Netland, Lars-helge

    2008-01-01

    When it comes to non-trivial networked computer systems, bulletproof security is very hard to achieve. Over a system's lifetime new security risks are likely to emerge from e.g. newly discovered classes of vulnerabilities or the arrival of new threat agents. Given the dynamic environment in which computer systems are deployed, continuous evaluations and adjustments are wiser than one-shot e orts for perfection. Security risk management focuses on assessing and treating security...

  16. Security Risks: Management and Mitigation in the Software Life Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilliam, David P.

    2004-01-01

    A formal approach to managing and mitigating security risks in the software life cycle is requisite to developing software that has a higher degree of assurance that it is free of security defects which pose risk to the computing environment and the organization. Due to its criticality, security should be integrated as a formal approach in the software life cycle. Both a software security checklist and assessment tools should be incorporated into this life cycle process and integrated with a security risk assessment and mitigation tool. The current research at JPL addresses these areas through the development of a Sotfware Security Assessment Instrument (SSAI) and integrating it with a Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) risk management tool.

  17. A New Technique for Mitigating Risk on US College Campuses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Stephanie; White, Rebecca J.; Hertz, Giles

    2008-01-01

    High-profile criminal acts continue to plague United States (US) college campuses despite recent efforts to implement more aggressive risk mitigation practices, such as criminal background checks. Despite these efforts, incidents such as the most recent shootings at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University continue to demonstrate that,…

  18. Planning Tools For Seismic Risk Mitigation. Rules And Applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recently, Italian urban planning research in the field of seismic risk mitigation are renewing. In particular, it promotes strategies that integrate urban rehabilitation and aseismic objectives, and also politicizes that are directed to revitalizes urban systems, coupling physical renewal and socio-economic development.In Italy the first law concerning planning for seismic mitigation dates back 1974, the law n. 64 ''Regulation for buildings with particular rules for the seismic areas'' where the rules for buildings in seismic areas concerning also the local hazard. This law, in fact, forced the municipalities to acquire, during the formation of the plans, a preventive opinion of compatibility between planning conditions and geomorphology conditions of the territory. From this date the conviction that the seismic risk must be considered inside the territorial planning especially in terms of strategies of mitigation has been strengthened.The town planners have started to take an interest in seismic risk in the [80]s when the Irpinia's earthquake took place. The researches developed after this earthquake have established that the principal cause of the collapse of buildings are due to from the wrong location of urban settlements (on slopes or crowns) After Irpinia's earthquake the first researches on seismic risk mitigation, in particular on the aspects related to the hazards and to the urban vulnerability were made

  19. Mitigating the safety risks of drugs with a focus on opioids: are risk evaluation and mitigation strategies the answer?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Marta J

    2014-12-01

    Approximately 40% of all newly approved drugs are subject to safety restrictions inclusive of Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS), which were created with the US Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act of 2007. This law expanded Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authority to require REMS of manufacturers but left implementation to the FDA. As a result, the potential access to medications that are effective but not without safety concerns has improved, yet the converse is also true because access may be restricted due to REMS requirements (eg, physician or patient registration). With the July 2012 reauthorization of the Prescription Drug User Fee Act, the FDA was given additional authorities and mandates for enhancing and modernizing the drug safety system-specifically, measuring the effectiveness of REMS as well as standardizing and better integrating REMS into the overall health care system. So, are REMS, which were conceived as a tool to improve medication safety, working? Specifically, are REMS achieving their intended outcomes (mitigating safety risks of effective drugs) without causing unintended consequences (creating a burden to the health care system and physicians and/or diminishing patient access to drugs)? Sitting squarely in the crosshairs, the approved shared REMS for extended-release/long-acting opioid analgesics provide a lens through which this question can be examined. This article discusses the current status, stakeholders, and key policy issues for clinicians with a focus on the shared REMS for opioids, as well as the anticipated role of clinicians in optimizing patient care in the new world of REMS. PMID:25441401

  20. To protect or abandon: a participatory process on landslide risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scolobig, A.; Bayer, J.; Cascini, L.; Ferlisi, S.

    2012-04-01

    With escalating costs of landslide risk mitigation and relief, a challenge for local authorities is to develop landslide risk mitigation measures that are viewed as efficient, feasible and fair by the many stakeholders involved. Innovative measures and the participation of stakeholders in the decision making process are essential elements in developing effective strategies to deal with the ever-changing spatial and temporal patterns of landslide risk. A stakeholder-led policy process, however, can face many social and economic challenges. One of the most difficult is deciding between costly protection measures or relocating homes. Particularly in areas with high population density, protection works are often not built because of economic/environmental constraints or private interests of the local residents. At the same time it not always possible to relocate households even if the costs are deemed less than protecting them. These issues turned out to be crucial in a recent participatory process for selecting risk mitigation measures in the town of Nocera Inferiore, Southern Italy, which experienced a landslide in 2005 causing three fatalities. The paper reports on this process which was structured in a series of meetings with a group of selected residents and several parallel activities open to the public. The preparatory work included semi-structured interviews carried out with key local stakeholders and a public survey eliciting residents' views on landslide risk mitigation. After describing the background of the landslide risk management problem in Nocera Inferiore, the paper focuses on three packages of risk mitigation measures (each of them not exceeding a total cost of 7 million Euro, namely the available funds) and the key trade-offs that emerged during the meetings with the residents. The participants reached a unanimous consensus on fundamental priorities, i.e. the improvement of the warning system, the implementation of an integrated system of monitoring and territorial survey and the stabilization of the open slopes with naturalistic engineering works. Much more debate was devoted to the relocation of residents from the most endangered areas and/or the need to build passive structural works, especially on private properties. Notwithstanding the difficulties in reaching a shared "compromise solution" for risk mitigation, the results demonstrate the value of citizen participation in landslide risk mitigation decisions and highlight the role that participation can play in risk management more generally.

  1. Exponential Spectral Risk Measures

    OpenAIRE

    Dowd, Kevin; Cotter, John

    2011-01-01

    Spectral risk measures are attractive risk measures as they allow the user to obtain risk measures that reflect their subjective risk-aversion. This paper examines spectral risk measures based on an exponential utility function, and finds that these risk measures have nice intuitive properties. It also discusses how they can be estimated using numerical quadrature methods, and how confidence intervals for them can be estimated using a parametric bootstrap. Illustrative resul...

  2. Tradable measure of risk

    OpenAIRE

    Pospisil, Libor; Vecer, Jan; Xu, Mingxin

    2007-01-01

    The main idea of this paper is to introduce Tradeable Measures of Risk as an objective and model independent way of measuring risk. The present methods of risk measurement, such as the standard Value-at-Risk supported by BASEL II, are based on subjective assumptions of future returns. Therefore two different models applied to the same portfolio can lead to different values of a risk measure. In order to achieve an objective measurement of risk, we introduce a concept of {...

  3. Evaluating the effectiveness of flood damage mitigation measures by the application of propensity score matching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, P.; Botzen, W. J. W.; Kreibich, H.; Bubeck, P.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

    2014-07-01

    The employment of damage mitigation measures (DMMs) by individuals is an important component of integrated flood risk management. In order to promote efficient damage mitigation measures, accurate estimates of their damage mitigation potential are required. That is, for correctly assessing the damage mitigation measures' effectiveness from survey data, one needs to control for sources of bias. A biased estimate can occur if risk characteristics differ between individuals who have, or have not, implemented mitigation measures. This study removed this bias by applying an econometric evaluation technique called propensity score matching (PSM) to a survey of German households along three major rivers that were flooded in 2002, 2005, and 2006. The application of this method detected substantial overestimates of mitigation measures' effectiveness if bias is not controlled for, ranging from nearly EUR 1700 to 15 000 per measure. Bias-corrected effectiveness estimates of several mitigation measures show that these measures are still very effective since they prevent between EUR 6700 and 14 000 of flood damage per flood event. This study concludes with four main recommendations regarding how to better apply propensity score matching in future studies, and makes several policy recommendations.

  4. Mitigation of surface reflection in PIV measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Surface reflections of high-intensity laser light are a common concern when conducting particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements. Consequences range from a poor signal-to-noise ratio (overexposure) in near-surface areas up to camera sensor damage. The severity depends on the interplay between three factors: surface properties, laser light intensity and relative camera position. In stereoscopic or tomographic PIV setups, material selection is often the only factor which can be adapted. We present a systematic comparative study, involving different materials and surface treatments. Their potential to mitigate surface reflections is quantified against the reference case of a flat black painted wooden surface. The largest reduction of surface reflection intensity is obtained by applying fluorescent paint on wood or by employing electropolished steel. The more widely used flat black painted wood shows poor behavior. (technical design note)

  5. Land Use Scenario Modeling for Flood Risk Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José I. Barredo

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available It is generally accepted that flood risk has been increasing in Europe in the last decades. Accordingly, it becomes a priority to better understand its drivers and mechanisms. Flood risk is evaluated on the basis of three factors: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. If one of these factors increases, then so does the risk. Land use change models used for ex-ante assessment of spatial trends provide planners with powerful tools for territorial decision making. However, until recently this type of model has been largely neglected in strategic planning for flood risk mitigation. Thus, ex-ante assessment of flood risk is an innovative application of land use change models. The aim of this paper is to propose a flood risk mitigation approach using exposure scenarios. The methodology is applied in the Pordenone province in northern Italy. In the past 50 years Pordenone has suffered several heavy floods, the disastrous consequences of which demonstrated the vulnerability of the area. Results of this study confirm that the main driving force of increased flood risk is found in new urban developments in flood-prone areas.

  6. Evaluating the effectiveness of road mitigation measures

    OpenAIRE

    Grift, E. A.; Ree, R.; Fahrig, L.; Houlahan, J. E.; Jaeger, J. A. G.; Klar, N.; Francisco Madrin?an, L.; Olson, L.

    2013-01-01

    The last 20 years have seen a dramatic increase in efforts to mitigate the negative effects of roads and traffic on wildlife, including fencing to prevent wildlife-vehicle collisions and wildlife crossing structures to facilitate landscape connectivity. While not necessarily explicitly articulated, the fundamental drivers behind road mitigation are human safety, animal welfare, and/or wildlife conservation. Concomitant with the increased effort to mitigate has been a focus on evaluating road ...

  7. Strategy Guideline: Mitigation of Retrofit Risk Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berman, M.; Smith, P.; Porse, E.

    2012-12-01

    The Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI) is currently developing strategies designed to promote and achieve increased energy savings and promote upgrades in the residential retrofit sector. These strategies are targeted to retrofit program managers, retrofit contractors, policy makers, academic researchers, and non-governmental organizations. This report focuses on four key areas to promote home energy upgrades: fostering accurate energy savings projections; understanding consumer perceptions for energy savings; measuring energy savings, and ensuring quality control for retrofit installations.

  8. Analysing the external supply chain risk driver competitiveness: a risk mitigation framework and business continuity plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blos, Mauricio F; Wee, Hui-Ming; Yang, Joshua

    2010-11-01

    Innovation challenges for handling supply chain risks have become one of the most important drivers in business competitiveness and differentiation. This study analyses competitiveness at the external supply chain level as a driver of risks and provides a framework for mitigating these risks. The mitigation framework, also called the supply chain continuity framework, provides insight into six stages of the business continuity planning (BCP) process life cycle (risk mitigation management, business impact analysis, supply continuity strategy development, supply continuity plan development, supply continuity plan testing and supply continuity plan maintenance), together with the operational constructs: customer service, inventory management, flexibility, time to market, ordering cycle time and quality. The purpose of the BCP process life cycle and operational constructs working together is to emphasise the way in which a supply chain can deal with disruption risks and, consequently, bring competitive advantage. Future research will consider the new risk scenarios and analyse the consequences to promote the improvement of supply chain resilience. PMID:21177223

  9. Mitigating Epidemics through Mobile Micro-measures

    CERN Document Server

    Kafsi, Mohamed; Maystre, Lucas; Yartseva, Lyudmila; Grossglauser, Matthias; Thiran, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    Epidemics of infectious diseases are among the largest threats to the quality of life and the economic and social well-being of developing countries. The arsenal of measures against such epidemics is well-established, but costly and insufficient to mitigate their impact. In this paper, we argue that mobile technology adds a powerful weapon to this arsenal, because (a) mobile devices endow us with the unprecedented ability to measure and model the detailed behavioral patterns of the affected population, and (b) they enable the delivery of personalized behavioral recommendations to individuals in real time. We combine these two ideas and propose several strategies to generate such recommendations from mobility patterns. The goal of each strategy is a large reduction in infections, with a small impact on the normal course of daily life. We evaluate these strategies over the Orange D4D dataset and show the benefit of mobile micro-measures, even if only a fraction of the population participates. These preliminary ...

  10. Natural risk assessment and decision planning for disaster mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Fiorucci, P.; Gaetani, F.; Minciardi, R.; Trasforini, E.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, decisional models are introduced aiming at defining a general framework for natural disaster mitigation. More specifically, an integrated approach based on system modelling and optimal resource assignment is presented in order to support the decision makers in pre-operational and real-time management of forest fire emergencies. Some strategies for pre-operative and real time risk management will be described and formalized as optimal resource assignment problems. To this end, s...

  11. Risk Mitigation in Triadic Network Configurations within a Servitized Context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raja, Jawwad; Roehrich, Jens

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: This paper examines risk mitigation for a servitizing organisation and its supply network configuration. This is an area of research that has not been adequately explored to date within a servitization context. In particular, the paper examines triadic configurations using an agency perspective. Design/methodology/approach: An exploratory case study of a truck manufacturer and its supply network is conducted over a two year period. Data consists predominantly of semi-structured interviews, observations and workshops with the case organisation. Findings: The findings of the study indicate that behavior-based controls, combined with information, are a key contributory factor in mitigating risk within triadic network structures. Research limitations/implications: This research is limited to one in-depth case study, within the truck industry. Whilst this represents an appropriate approach given the exploratory nature of the study, there is a need for further empirical research across different industries. Originality/value: Theoretical insights are gleaned through the application of agency theory as a lens to understand risk mitigation within supply networks within the context of servitization.

  12. Heat exchanger fouling: Prediction, measurement, and mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The US Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Industrial Programs (OIP) sponsors the development of innovative heat exchange systems. Fouling is a major and persistent cost associated with most industrial heat exchangers and nationally wastes an estimated 2.9 Quads per year. To predict and control fouling, three OIP projects are currently exploring heat exchanger fouling in specific industrial applications. A fouling probe has been developed to determine empirically the fouling potential of an industrial gas stream and to derive the fouling thermal resistance. The probe is a hollow metal cylinder capable of measuring the average heat flux along the length of the tube. The local heat flux is also measured by a heat flux meter embedded in the probe wall. The fouling probe has been successfully tested in the laboratory at flue gas temperatures up to 2200 F and a local heat flux up to 41,000 BTU/hr sq ft. The probe has been field tested at a coal-fired boiler plant. Future tests at a municipal waste incinerator are planned. Two other projects study enhanced heat exchanger tubes, specifically the effect of enhanced surface geometries on the tube bundle performance. Both projects include fouling in a liquid heat transfer fluid. Identifying and quantifying the factors affecting fouling in these enhanced heat transfer tubes will lead to techniques to mitigate fouling.

  13. Interventionist and participatory approaches to flood risk mitigation decisions: two case studies in the Italian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchizza, C.; Del Bianco, D.; Pellizzoni, L.; Scolobig, A.

    2012-04-01

    Flood risk mitigation decisions pose key challenges not only from a technical but also from a social, economic and political viewpoint. There is an increasing demand for improving the quality of these processes by including different stakeholders - and especially by involving the local residents in the decision making process - and by guaranteeing the actual improvement of local social capacities during and after the decision making. In this paper we analyse two case studies of flood risk mitigation decisions, Malborghetto-Valbruna and Vipiteno-Sterzing, in the Italian Alps. In both of them, mitigation works have been completed or planned, yet following completely different approaches especially in terms of responses of residents and involvement of local authorities. In Malborghetto-Valbruna an 'interventionist' approach (i.e. leaning towards a top down/technocratic decision process) was used to make decisions after the flood event that affected the municipality in the year 2003. In Vipiteno-Sterzing, a 'participatory' approach (i.e. leaning towards a bottom-up/inclusive decision process) was applied: decisions about risk mitigation measures were made by submitting different projects to the local citizens and by involving them in the decision making process. The analysis of the two case studies presented in the paper is grounded on the results of two research projects. Structured and in-depth interviews, as well as questionnaire surveys were used to explore residents' and local authorities' orientations toward flood risk mitigation. Also a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) involving key stakeholders was used to better understand the characteristics of the communities and their perception of flood risk mitigation issues. The results highlight some key differences between interventionist and participatory approaches, together with some implications of their adoption in the local context. Strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches, as well as key challenges for the future are also discussed.

  14. Cost-benefit analysis of alternative LNG vapor-mitigation measures. Topical report, September 14, 1987-January 15, 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A generalized methodology is presented for comparing the costs and safety benefits of alternative hazard mitigation measures for a large LNG vapor release. The procedure involves the quantification of the risk to the public before and after the application of LNG vapor mitigation measures. In the study, risk was defined as the product of the annual accident frequency, estimated from a fault tree analysis, and the severity of the accident. Severity was measured in terms of the number of people who may be exposed to 2.5% or higher concentration. The ratios of the annual costs of the various mitigation measures to their safety benefits (as determined by the differences between the risk before and after mitigation measure implementation), were then used to identify the most cost-effective approaches to vapor cloud mitigation

  15. Uncertainty of Mitigation Measures to Floods in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Saud, M.

    2011-12-01

    As an aspect of the changing climatic conditions and anthropogenic impact; however, floods and torrents have been recently existed in Jeddah, the coastal Saudi city along the Red Sea. Distributed over 28 surface water basins, totaling an area of more than 2500km2, floods cover more than 15% of the area. This is well pronounced in 2009 and 2011, and it was attributed mainly to the torrential rainfall peaks the area witnesses lately. In addition, there is a chaotic urban distribution from the coastal zone to the adjacent mountain chains to the east, where torrential water runs towards the coast. A detailed assessment has been obtained using advanced space tools (e.g. high-resolution satellite images), and the application was carried out on several aspects of these images and at different dates. This was accomplished in combination the applications of geo-spatial systems to induce the mechanism of water flow regime and to identify the major reasons behind the high risk magnitude. Consequently, the geomorphologic and hydrologic parameters for flood occurrence were recognized. In the light of this catastrophic status; however, mitigation measures are rare enough to protect the area under risk. Recently, and after the 2009 and the recurrent 2011 disasters, which were resulted from floods, some mitigation measures have been undertaken and others were proposed. However, there is still uncertainty for an integrated flood control system. This can be viewed from the unsuitability of the selected sites and erroneous applications for flood controls. Besides, there is a lack to: 1) a giant channeling system for the risk area, 2) check dams, 3) ponds for water collection, 4) sediments-fixing controls, 5) traced watercourses. This is in addition to absence of proper legislation to prevent chaotic urban activities along valleys' pathways.

  16. Optimum cooling of data centers application of risk assessment and mitigation techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Dai, Jun; Das, Diganta; Pecht, Michael G

    2014-01-01

    This book provides data center designers and operators with methods by which to assess and mitigate the risks associated with utilization of optimum cooling solutions. The goal is to provide readers with sufficient knowledge to implement measures such as free air cooling or direct liquid immersion cooling properly, or combination of existing and emerging cooling technologies in data centers, base stations, and server farms. This book also: Discusses various telecommunication infrastructures, with an emphasis on data centers and base stations Covers the most commonly known energy and power management techniques, as well as emerging cooling solutions for data centers Describes the risks to the electronic equipment fitted in these installations and the methods of risk mitigation Devotes  a particular focus to an up-to-date review of the emerging cooling methods (such as free air cooling and direct liquid immersion cooling) and tools and best practices for designers, technology developers, installation operators...

  17. Natural risk assessment and decision planning for disaster mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Fiorucci

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, decisional models are introduced aiming at defining a general framework for natural disaster mitigation. More specifically, an integrated approach based on system modelling and optimal resource assignment is presented in order to support the decision makers in pre-operational and real-time management of forest fire emergencies. Some strategies for pre-operative and real time risk management will be described and formalized as optimal resource assignment problems. To this end, some models capable to describe the resources dynamics will be introduced, both in pre-operative phase and in real-time phase.

  18. Risks and risks mitigations in the supply chain of mangosteen: a case study

    OpenAIRE

    Astuti, R.; Arkeman, M. M. Y.; Poerwanto, R.; Meuwissen, M. P. M.

    2013-01-01

    Mangosteen (Garcinia mangostana L.) is the highly demanded fruit for export commodity from Indonesia. The biggest mangosteen production center in Indonesia is West Java Province. The development of the mangosteen supply chain in Indonesia, particularly in West Java Province is heavily affected by uncertain potential risks for the chain. This paper identifies potential risks of the supply chain and studies the interrelationships between strategies for mitigating those risks. Fuzzy Anal...

  19. The last mile: earthquake risk mitigation assistance in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Haresh C

    2006-08-15

    Over the past few decades, we have seen many joint programmes between developed countries and developing countries to help the latter in managing their earthquake risks. These programmes span the whole spectrum of disciplines from seismology and geology to engineering, social science and economics. Many of these programmes have been effective in raising awareness, in urging governments to work towards risk reduction and in spawning an 'industry' of disaster management in many of the developing countries. However, even as these efforts proceed, we have seen death and destruction due to earthquake after earthquake in developing countries, strongly suggesting that the problems for which those assistance programmes were developed are not so effective. Therefore, it is natural to ask why this is happening. Are the assistance programmes reaching the right people? Maybe we are reaching the right people and doing the right type of things in these countries, but we have not allowed enough time for our actions to take effect. Maybe we are reaching the right people and doing the right actions for most of the miles we need to cover in helping communities mitigate their earthquake risks. However, the issue could be whether we are reaching people who represent the 'last mile' on this pathway. Here, I explore whether the work that many organizations and countries have done towards earthquake risk reduction over the past few decades in developing countries is appropriate or not. Why do we keep seeing the catastrophes of Sumatra, Chi Chi, Bhuj, Turkey, Algeria and on and on? I will articulate what I think is the problem. My contribution is intended to generate discussions, self-analysis of our approaches, what we are doing right and what we are not doing right. Hopefully such discussions will result in a better connection between the last mile and programmes around the world which are working towards earthquake risk mitigation. PMID:16844655

  20. Reservoir souring: it is all about risk mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuijvenhoven, Cor [Shell (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    The presence of H2S in produced fluid can be due to various sources, among which are heat/rock interaction and leaks from other reservoirs. This paper discusses the reasons, risk assessment and tools for mitigating reservoir souring. Uncontrolled microorganism activity can cause a sweet reservoir (without H2S) to become sour (production of H2S). The development of bacteria is one of the main causes of reservoir souring in unconventional gas fields. It is difficult to predict souring in seawater due to produced water re-injection (PWRI). Risk assessment and modeling techniques for reservoir souring are discussed. Some of the factors controlling H2S production include injection location, presence of scavenging minerals and biogenic souring. Mitigation methods such as biocide treatment of injection water, sulphate removal from seawater, microbial monitoring techniques such as the molecular microbiology method (MMM), and enumeration by serial dilution are explained. In summary, it can be concluded that reservoir souring is a long-term problem and should be assessed at the beginning of operations.

  1. Public perception of flood risks, flood forecasting and mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Brilly

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available A multidisciplinary and integrated approach to the flood mitigation decision making process should provide the best response of society in a flood hazard situation including preparation works and post hazard mitigation. In Slovenia, there is a great lack of data on social aspects and public response to flood mitigation measures and information management. In this paper, two studies of flood perception in the Slovenian town Celje are represented. During its history, Celje was often exposed to floods, the most recent serious floods being in 1990 and in 1998, with a hundred and fifty return period and more than ten year return period, respectively. Two surveys were conducted in 1997 and 2003, with 157 participants from different areas of the town in the first, and 208 in the second study, aiming at finding the general attitude toward the floods. The surveys revealed that floods present a serious threat in the eyes of the inhabitants, and that the perception of threat depends, to a certain degree, on the place of residence. The surveys also highlighted, among the other measures, solidarity and the importance of insurance against floods.

  2. Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Planning and decision making amidst programmatic and technological risks represent significant challenges for projects. This presentation addresses the four step risk-assessment process needed to determine clear path forward to mature needed technology and design, license, and construct advanced nuclear power plants, which have never been built before, including Small Modular Reactors. This four step process has been carefully applied to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. STEP 1 - Risk Identification Risks are identified, collected, and categorized as technical risks, programmatic risks, and project risks, each of which result in cost and schedule impacts if realized. These include risks arising from the use of technologies not previously demonstrated in a relevant application. These risks include normal and accident scenarios which the SMR could experience including events that cause the disablement of engineered safety features (typically documented in Phenomena Identification Ranking Tables (PIRT) as produced with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and design needs which must be addressed to further detail the design. Product - Project Risk Register contained in a database with sorting, presentation, rollup, risk work off functionality similar to the NGNP Risk Management System . STEP 2 - Risk Quantification The risks contained in the risk register are then scored for probability of occurrence and severity of consequence, if realized. Here the scoring methodology if realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap. Product - Risk Handling Strategy. STEP 4 - Residual Risk Work off The risk handling strategy is entered into the Project Risk Allocation Tool (PRAT) to analyze each task for its ability to reduce risk. The result is risk-informed task prioritization. The risk handling strategy is captured in the Risk Management System, a relational database that provides conventional database utility, including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. The tool's Hierarchy Tree allows visualization and analyses of complex relationships between risks, risk mitigation tasks, design needs, and PIRTs. Product - Project Risk Allocation Tool and Risk Management System which depict project plan to reduce risk and current progress in doing so.

  3. Fish habitat mitigation measures for hydrotechnical projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In recent years, the identification and mitigation of environmental impacts of hydrotechnical projects, particularly on fish and fish habitats, have become a major component of project planning and design. Potential impacts to fish and fish habitat may include increased fish mortality, decreased species diversity, and loss or decreases in fish production due to loss of habitat or alteration of its suitability. These impacts arise from flooding of riverine habitat, alteration of flow quantity and distribution, changes in morphology, and alteration of water quality, including suspended sediments, temperature, dissolved oxygen, and mercury. The results of a study for the Canadian Federal Department of Fisheries and Oceans Central and Arctic Region, examining fish habitat mitigation techniques for their applicability to hydrotechnical projects in Canada are summarized. The requirements for achievement and verification of the no net loss policy for a project are discussed. 10 refs., 2 tabs

  4. Contractual strategies for risk mitigation : developing wind power projects in emerging markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This presentation outlined the risks associated with wind projects in emerging markets. The risks are similar to those of any wind project and include risks associated with construction, regulations, markets, technology, operations, payment, politics, and wind resource. This presentation described the underlying conditions for each of those risks and presented a structure for wind projects that would mitigate these risks. In emerging markets, regulatory risks may be more difficult to quantify and there is likely to be an increase in payment risk, political risk and legal risk. The role of Concessions or Implementation Agreements in mitigating the risk was discussed

  5. Mitigating mountain hazards in Austria – legislation, risk transfer, and awareness building

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Holub

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Embedded in the overall concept of integral risk management, mitigating mountain hazards is pillared by land use regulations, risk transfer, and information. In this paper aspects on legislation related to natural hazards in Austria are summarised, with a particular focus on spatial planning activities and hazard mapping, and possible adaptations focussing on enhanced resilience are outlined. Furthermore, the system of risk transfer is discussed, highlighting the importance of creating incentives for risk-aware behaviour, above all with respect to individual precaution and insurance solutions. Therefore, the issue of creating awareness through information is essential, which is presented subsequently. The study results in recommendations of how administrative units on different federal and local levels could increase the enforcement of regulations related to the minimisation of natural hazard risk. Moreover, the nexus to risk transfer mechanisms is provided, focusing on the current compensation system in Austria and some possible adjustments in order to provide economic incentives for (private investments in mitigation measures, i.e. local structural protection. These incentives should be supported by delivering information on hazard and risk target-oriented to any stakeholder involved. Therefore, coping strategies have to be adjusted and the interaction between prevention and precaution has to be highlighted. The paper closes with recommendations of how these efforts could be achieved, with a particular focus on the situation in the Republic of Austria.

  6. Mitigating mountain hazards in Austria - legislation, risk transfer, and awareness building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holub, M.; Fuchs, S.

    2009-04-01

    Embedded in the overall concept of integral risk management, mitigating mountain hazards is pillared by land use regulations, risk transfer, and information. In this paper aspects on legislation related to natural hazards in Austria are summarised, with a particular focus on spatial planning activities and hazard mapping, and possible adaptations focussing on enhanced resilience are outlined. Furthermore, the system of risk transfer is discussed, highlighting the importance of creating incentives for risk-aware behaviour, above all with respect to individual precaution and insurance solutions. Therefore, the issue of creating awareness through information is essential, which is presented subsequently. The study results in recommendations of how administrative units on different federal and local levels could increase the enforcement of regulations related to the minimisation of natural hazard risk. Moreover, the nexus to risk transfer mechanisms is provided, focusing on the current compensation system in Austria and some possible adjustments in order to provide economic incentives for (private) investments in mitigation measures, i.e. local structural protection. These incentives should be supported by delivering information on hazard and risk target-oriented to any stakeholder involved. Therefore, coping strategies have to be adjusted and the interaction between prevention and precaution has to be highlighted. The paper closes with recommendations of how these efforts could be achieved, with a particular focus on the situation in the Republic of Austria.

  7. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS): educating the prescriber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholson, Susan C; Peterson, Janet; Yektashenas, Behin

    2012-02-01

    The US FDA Amendments Act of 2007 was signed into law on 27 September 2007. A provision of this law granted the FDA new powers to enhance drug safety by requiring the pharmaceutical industry to develop Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS). REMS are deemed necessary when a question exists as to whether the benefits of a drug outweigh its risks. REMS constitute a safety plan with several potential components, including a medication guide, a communication plan, elements to ensure safe use and an implementation system to help guide the prescribers, pharmacists and patients. This applies to existing drugs on the market, new drug applications (NDAs), abbreviated NDAs (generics) and biologics licence applications. REMS represent an 'upgrade' from previously required risk minimization action plans, based on the strengthening of FDA powers of authority and enforceability to incur monetary penalties against individuals representing the pharmaceutical industry who fail to comply. For illustrative purposes, we chose the drug romiplostim (Nplate®) to present an REMS, as all components were utilized to help assuage risks associated with the drug. Romiplostim is an FDA-approved drug used to treat thrombocytopenia in patients with chronic immune (idiopathic) thrombocytopenic purpura that has a significant adverse safety profile based on the risk of changes in bone marrow reticulin formation and bone marrow fibroses, and other associated risks. This review of current REMS policy is intended to provide the prescriber with a better understanding of current modalities in FDA-mandated drug safety programmes, which will impact day-to-day healthcare provider practices. PMID:22171604

  8. Mitigation measures for the La Grande 1 hydroelectric development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Measures to mitigate environmental impacts of the La Grande 1 hydroelectric development are described. An overview is presented of the La Grande 1 project, its surrounding environment, and the principle environmental repercussions of the reservoir, hydrological changes between the dam and river mouth, construction activities and permanent and temporary structures, and presence of workers. Mitigation measures including compensation, corrective measures (deforestation, selective cutting, fish populations, wildlife populations, land rehabilitation, access roads, fisheries, and erosion control), protective measures, enhancement measures, and contract and employment opportunities for the Cree population are described. 10 refs., 2 figs

  9. Operational mitigation measures to address bat casualties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edworthy, J.; Holder, M.; Valgardson, M. [TransAlta Wind, Calgary, AB (Canada); Baerwald, E.; Barclay, R. [Calgary Univ., AB (Canada)

    2008-07-01

    TransAlta Wind operates a fleet of 220 wind turbines with a capacity of 417 MW of wind energy. The subsidiary's Summerview wind farm was commissioned in 2004 and is comprised of 39 Vestas V-80 wind turbines. The wind turbines were placed predominantly in an agricultural setting among livestock and grasslands. An examination of post-construction monitoring demonstrated that 532 bat casualties occurred between August and September of 2005. The majority of the fatalities were among tree-roosting bats along forested ridges of the development. Researchers at the University of Calgary are investigating the cause of the bat fatalities as well as potential mitigation methods. To date, the study has demonstrated that bats fly higher when wind speeds are lower and do not tend to fly in stronger winds. Peak migration rates occur in August and early September. As a result of the study, turbines at the wind farm are now manually adjusted in order to accommodate the bats during migration periods. Experiments have also been conducted to modify the cut-in speeds of wind turbines. Fewer bat casualties have been observed at the experimental turbines. It was concluded that the mitigation methods used in the study may be used to address environmental concerns about wind turbines. tabs., figs.

  10. Assessment of risk evaluation and mitigation strategies in oncology: summary of the oncology risk evaluation and mitigation strategies workshop.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frame, James N; Jacobson, Joseph O; Vogel, Wendy H; Griffith, Niesha; Wariabharaj, Darshan; Garg, Rekha; Zon, Robin; Stephens, Cyntha L; Bialecki, Alison M; Bruinooge, Suanna S; Allen, Steven L

    2013-03-01

    To address oncology community stakeholder concerns regarding implementation of the Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) program, ASCO sponsored a workshop to gather REMS experiences from representatives of professional societies, patient organizations, pharmaceutical companies, and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Stakeholder presentations and topical panel discussions addressed REMS program development, implementation processes, and practice experiences, as well as oncology drug safety processes. A draft REMS decision tool prepared by the ASCO REMS Steering Committee was presented for group discussion with facilitated, goal-oriented feedback. THE WORKSHOP IDENTIFIED SEVERAL UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES RESULTING FROM CURRENT ONCOLOGY REMS: (1) the release of personal health information to drug sponsors as a condition for gaining access to a needed drug; (2) risk information that is not tailored-and therefore not accessible-to all literacy levels; (3) exclusive focus on drug risk, thereby affecting patient-provider treatment discussion; (4) REMS elements that do not consider existing, widely practiced oncology safety standards, professional training, and experience; and (5) administrative burdens that divert the health care team from direct patient care activities and, in some cases, could limit patient access to important therapies. Increased provider and professional society participation should form the basis of ongoing and future REMS standardization discussions with the FDA to work toward overall improvement of risk communication. PMID:23814522

  11. Women, mercury and artisanal gold mining : Risk communication and mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinton, J. J.; Veiga, M. M.; Beinhoff, C.

    2003-05-01

    Artisanal miners employ rudimentary techniques for minéral extraction and often operate under hazardous, labour intensive, highly disorganized and illegal conditions. Gold is the main mineral extracted by artisanal miners, and the ecological and human health impacts resulting from mercury (Hg) use in gold extraction warrant special consideration. More than 30% of world's 13 million artisanal miners are women and, as they are often perceived to be less suited for labour intensive mining methods, the majority of women work in the processing aspect of artisanal mining, including amalgamation with Hg. As women are also predominantly responsible for food preparation, they are in an excellent position to respond to health risks associated with consumption of Hg-contaminated foods in impacted areas. In addition to their influence on consumption habits, women in artisanal mining communities may be in a position to effect positive change with respect to the technologies employed. Thus, gender sensitive approaches are necessary to reduce exposure risks to women and their families, promote clean technologies and support the development of stronger, healthier artisanal mining communities. This paper describes the roles of women in artisanal gold mining, highlights their importance in reducing the Hg exposure in these communities, and provides insight into how risks from Hg pollution can effectively be communicated and mitigated.

  12. Vrancea earthquakes. Courses for specific actions to mitigate seismic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Earthquakes in the Carpathian-Pannonian region are confined to the crust, except the Vrancea zone, where earthquakes with focal depth down to 200 Km occur. For example, the ruptured area migrated from 150 km to 180 km (November 10,1940, Mw = 7.7) from 90 km to 110 km (March 4, 1977, Mw 7.4), from 130 km to 150 km (August 30, 1986, Mw = 7.1) and from 70 km to 90 km (May 30, 1990, Mw = 6.9) depth. The depth interval between 110 km and 130 km remains not ruptured since 1802, October 26, when it was the strongest earthquake occurred in this part of Central Europe. The magnitude is assumed to be Mw = 7.9 - 8.0 and this depth interval is a natural candidate for the next strong Vrancea event. While no country in the world is entirely safe, the lack of capacity to limit the impact of seismic hazards remains a major burden for all countries and while the world has witnessed an exponential increase in human and material losses due to natural disasters given by earthquakes, there is a need to reverse trends in seismic risk mitigation to future events. Main courses for specific actions to mitigate the seismic risk given by strong deep Vrancea earthquakes should be considered as key for development actions: - Early warning system for industrial facilities. Early warning is more than a technological instrument to detect, monitor and submit warnings. It should become part of a management information system for decision-making in information system for decision-making in the context of national institutional frameworks for disaster management and part of national and local strategies and programmers for risk mitigation; - Prediction program of Vrancea strong earthquakes of short and long term; - Hazard seismic map of Romania. The wrong assessment of the seismic hazard can lead to dramatic situations as those from Bucharest or Kobe. Before the 1977 Vrancea earthquake, the city of Bucharest was designed to intensity I = VII (MMI) and the real intensity was I = IX1/2-X (MMI); - Seismic microzonation of large populated cities. There are zones in Bucharest which have fundamental periods of the soil and geological structures very different and during August 30, 1986 Vrancea earthquake the variations of the recorded peak accelerations were from simple to triple ones; - Shake map. This shake map now under completion will allow us rapidly portray, in real time, the extent of shaking during of earthquake in a simplified form suitable for immediate post-earthquake decision-making; - Seismic tomography of dams for avoiding catastrophes. There are applications of seismic tomography and in general of seismic imaging like methods of investigation for mitigation of earthquake effects. (authors)

  13. An integrated approach to risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN threat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    CBRN mass casualty events threat mitigation remains today the highest international priority. Although significant progress has been made, the national security requirements for efforts to combat Weapons of Mass Destruction and Weapons of Mass Disruption will be of the highest national priority in the near future. An integration of a number of approaches is essential in the risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN treat. Preparedness measures and procedures, engineering, science and technology, policy, medical, and emergency response are essential to reduce the threat from the proliferation and use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Improved coordination between international, public and private security entities is also essential task to hopefully prevent the terrorist attacks. In this lecture, it will be presented very important scientific approach to risk assessment of potential use of nuclear, radiological, biological or chemical weapons in terrorist actions. An integrated approach for mitigating the CBRN threat, crisis management and preparedness measures for prevention and reduction of potential consequences, will be presented.(author)

  14. Cost control and risk mitigation of major projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper and presentation, the four major types of estimates will be discussed, i.e., capacity factored, equipment factored, semi-detailed and detailed. Key relationships between particular portions of estimates will be discussed such as the relationship between direct field labor and indirect field costs. Having set the basis for developing a project's cost through estimating, the paper will then list and discuss the fifteen key steps which must be followed to control the costs of a project. Next, the subject of allowances and contingency will be discussed and defined and the differences between the two will be highlighted. Having established exactly what contingency is, the subject of risk analysis through RANGE estimating will be discussed. The methods used to establish a precise contingency and probability of an over/under run will be discussed. Finally, the paper will discuss the methods by which a project manager, owner or contractor can mitigate risks; that is to eliminate, transfer or minimize their effect

  15. Considerations on comprehensive risk assessment and mitigation planning of volcanic ash-fall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Volcanic ash-fall is inevitable hazard throughout Japan, and causes wide range of effects due to its physical and chemical properties. Nuclear power plants in Japan face the necessity to assess the risk from volcanic ash-fall. Risk assessment of the volcanic ash-fall should include engineering solution and mitigation planning as well as the ash-fall hazard. This report points out the characteristics for reducing the various effects of volcanic ash-fall as follows. Large-scale eruptions produce prominent volcanic ash-falls that can approach power plants at a great distance. Aftermath hazards of ash-fall events, such as remobilization of fine ash particles and generation of lahars, require further assessments. The kind and extent of damages becomes greater whenever ash is wet. Wet ash requires separate assessments in contrast to dry ash. The mitigation and recovery measures at power plants involve quick cleanup operations of volcanic ash. Those operations should be prepared through comprehensive risk assessment, and by cooperation with authorities, during pre-eruption repose period. The comprehensive assessment for volcanic ash-fall hazards, however, has yet to be conducted. Development of risk communication method may result in increased implementation mitigation planning. Numerical analysis of the ash-fall hazards provides quantitative data on particle motions that can be used in the risk assessment. In order to implement the quantitative assessment method, the verifiquantitative assessment method, the verification on the effect of ambient air condition to the altitude of volcanic ash cloud is necessary. We need to develop a three-dimensional model of volcanic ash cloud, and calculate motions of ash clouds under multiple conditions of ambient air. (author)

  16. Human perception of radon risk and radon mitigation: some remarks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neznal, Martin; Neznal, Matej

    2008-01-01

    The Radon program in the Czech Republic has a relatively long and rich history. Procedures, which enable to evaluate the risk of radon penetration from the ground, to protect new buildings, to find existing buildings with elevated indoor radon levels and to realise remedial measures in such buildings, have been developed, published and tested. In some cases, the whole system may fail due to psychological or sociological reasons. Three types of problems (conflicts) will be presented: human behaviour affecting measurement results, conflict between individual and 'all-society' points of view, interpretation of radon risk itself. PMID:18407973

  17. Climate risk perception and ex-ante mitigation strategies of rural households in Thailand and Vietnam

    OpenAIRE

    Vo?lker, Marc; Tongruksawattana, Songporne; Hardeweg, Bernd; Waibel, Hermann

    2011-01-01

    A major risk factor for rural areas in emerging market economies, such as Thailand and Vietnam, can be attributed to climate change. Adoption of effective ex-ante mitigation strategies is a function of socio-economic household and location characteristics including, among others, the decision makers' perceptions of risk. This study aims to analyze both the determinants of climate-related risk perception and its influence on the choice of ex-ante mitigation strategies. In the context of the DF...

  18. Human Factors Research for Space Exploration: Measurement, Modeling, and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiser, Mary K.; Allen, Christopher S.; Barshi, Immanuel; Billman, Dorrit; Holden, Kritina L.

    2010-01-01

    As part of NASA's Human Research Program, the Space Human Factors Engineering Project serves as the bridge between Human Factors research and Human Spaceflight applications. Our goal is to be responsive to the operational community while addressing issues at a sufficient level of abstraction to ensure that our tools and solutions generalize beyond the point design. In this panel, representatives from four of our research domains will discuss the challenges they face in solving current problems while also enabling future capabilities. Historically, engineering-dominated organizations have tended to view good Human Factors (HF) as a desire rather than a requirement in system design and development. Our field has made significant gains in the past decade, however; the Department of Defense, for example, now recognizes Human-System Integration (HSI), of which HF is a component, as an integral part of their divisions hardware acquisition processes. And our own agency was far more accepting of HF/HSI requirements during the most recent vehicle systems definition than in any prior cycle. Nonetheless, HF subject matter experts at NASA often find themselves in catch up mode... coping with legacy systems (hardware and software) and procedures that were designed with little regard for the human element, and too often with an attitude of we can deal with any operator issues during training. Our challenge, then, is to segregate the true knowledge gaps in Space Human Factors from the prior failures to incorporate best (or even good) HF design principles. Further, we strive to extract the overarching core HF issues from the point-design-specific concerns that capture the operators (and managers) attention. Generally, our approach embraces a 3M approach to Human Factors: Measurement, Modeling, and Mitigation. Our first step is to measure human performance, to move from subjective anecdotes to objective, quantified data. Next we model the phenomenon, using appropriate methods in our field, modifying them to suit the unique aspects of the space environment. Finally, we develop technologies, tools, and procedures to mitigate the decrements in human performance and capabilities that occur in space environments. When successful, we decrease risks to crew safety and to mission success. When extremely successful (or lucky), we devise generalizable solutions that advance the state of our practice. Our panel is composed of researchers from diverse domains of our project... from different boxes, if you will, of the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS).

  19. Priority mitigation measures in non-energy sector in Kazakstan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mizina, S.V.; Pilifosova, O.V.; Gossen, E.F.

    1996-12-31

    Fulfilling the Commitments on UN FCCC through the U.S. Country Studies Program, Kazakstan has developed the national GHG Inventory, vulnerability and adaptation assessment and estimated the possibility of mitigation measures in certain sectors. Next step is developing National Climate Change Action Plan. That process includes such major steps as setting priorities in mitigation measures and technologies, their comprehensive evaluation, preparation implementation strategies, developing the procedure of incorporation of the National Action Plan into other development plans and programs. This paper presents programs and measures that can reduce GHG emissions in non-energy sector. Measures in land-use change and forestry, agriculture and coal mining are considered. Current situation in non-energy sector of Kazakstan is discussed. The amount of GHG emissions reduction and cost analysis presented in this paper was developed with the use of IPCC recommendations.

  20. The role of the Model Validation function to manage and mitigate model risk

    OpenAIRE

    Elices, Alberto

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes the current taxonomy of model risk, ways for its mitigation and management and the importance of the model validation function in collaboration with other departments to design and implement them.

  1. Attributing ozone to NOx emissions: Implications for climate mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grewe, Volker; Dahlmann, Katrin; Matthes, Sigrun; Steinbrecht, Wolfgang

    2012-11-01

    Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) lead to formation of ozone, which is an important greenhouse gas. Despite its relevance, little emphasis was previously given on verifying approaches to calculate contributions of individual emissions to ozone and hence to climate change. Basically two methods (perturbation method and tagging method) were used in the past. We demonstrate that both methods are valid and have their area of application, but only tagging calculates contributions of emissions to concentrations, whereas the perturbation method identifies changes in the ozone concentrations due to emission changes. Our results show that the contribution of road traffic emissions to climate change is underestimated by a factor of 5 in the perturbation method. This is caused by non-linear compensating effects from other emission sectors, which are concealed in the perturbation method but disclosed with tagging. Consequently, the effectiveness of mitigation measures for individual sectors (i.e. concentrating on road traffic induced ozone) is only correctly expressed by the tagging method. The perturbation method provides accurately the total impact (i.e. total ozone) of a mitigation measure. However, current approaches, which evaluate the effectiveness of a mitigation measure based on the perturbation approach, do not reflect changes in the chemical state of the atmosphere (i.e. ozone production rates). These largely affect the effectiveness of subsequent measures and hence make the evaluation of the effectiveness of two measures dependent on their chronology of application. We show that also in this regard, the tagging method is better suited to evaluate the effectiveness of a mitigation measure than the perturbation method.

  2. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    2012-01-01

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution's contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases with the institution's leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system's loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are ‘taxed’ based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads.

  3. Atmospheric Effects on InSAR Measurements and Their Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Jiang-ping Long; Guang-cai Feng; Jian-jun Zhu; Zhi-wei Li; Xiao-li Ding

    2008-01-01

    Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is a powerful technology for observing the Earth surface, especially for mapping the Earth's topography and deformations. InSAR measurements are however often significantly affected by the atmosphere as the radar signals propagate through the atmosphere whose state varies both in space and in time. Great efforts have been made in recent years to better understand the properties of the atmospheric effects and to develop methods for mitigating th...

  4. Efficiency of mitigation measures for structures subjected to ground movement

    OpenAIRE

    Prime, N.; Emeriault, Fabrice; Caudron, Matthieu; Al Heib, Marwan

    2009-01-01

    Surface subsidence resulting from the collapse of underground cavities, whether natural or man-made can interact with existing buildings on the surface. One of the mitigation measures used is to dig a peripheral trench at a certain distance from the structure, filled with a soft material, like peat, or artificial material. This is thought to reduce the horizontal strain applied to the structure. The 3D numerical analysis presented in this paper is a first step towards evaluating the efficienc...

  5. Measuring your radon risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In its annual report for 1992/93, the NRPB has warned that tens of thousands of UK employees may be exposed to high levels of radon at work. In addition to those who work underground, employees at risk of radon-induced lung cancer are typically those who spend long periods indoors. This article reviews the implications for all employers especially those in low or unknown levels of radon who resist taking measurements in the belief that by not measuring, they are not liable. (UK)

  6. Risk mitigation strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A basic requirement for ITER equipment to meet is a high level of reliability, because ITER operation time is precious and radioactive operation leaves limited scope for repair. In order to reduce the risk of failure during ITER operation an effective risk mitigation strategy is necessary. This paper presents such strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher (ECUPL). A preliminary ECUPL risk analysis identifies possible failure modes. A probabilistic risk assessment quantifies the risk of failure using a 4 x 4 impact-likelihood matrix. Impact is quantified through technical, cost and schedule elements. Likelihood depends on the risk mitigation strategy adopted. A cost benefit analysis determines the most cost effective risk mitigation strategy. An essential element in risk mitigation is the testing of equipment prior to installation on the ITER machine. This paper argues the need for low- and highpower millimetre wave tests carried out on the fully assembled ECUPL. It presents a conceptual design for a dedicated on-site test bed that can handle 2 of 8 microwave beams at 2 MW long pulse operation.

  7. Risk mitigation strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goede, A.P.H., E-mail: A.P.H.Goede@Rijnhuizen.nl [FOM-Institute for Plasma Physics Rijnhuizen, Association EURATOM-FOM, Partner in the Trilateral Euregio Cluster, PO Box 1207, 3430 BE Nieuwegein (Netherlands); Bongers, W.A.; Elzendoorn, B.S.Q.; Graswinckel, M.F.; Baar, M.R. de [FOM-Institute for Plasma Physics Rijnhuizen, Association EURATOM-FOM, Partner in the Trilateral Euregio Cluster, PO Box 1207, 3430 BE Nieuwegein (Netherlands)

    2010-12-15

    A basic requirement for ITER equipment to meet is a high level of reliability, because ITER operation time is precious and radioactive operation leaves limited scope for repair. In order to reduce the risk of failure during ITER operation an effective risk mitigation strategy is necessary. This paper presents such strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher (ECUPL). A preliminary ECUPL risk analysis identifies possible failure modes. A probabilistic risk assessment quantifies the risk of failure using a 4 x 4 impact-likelihood matrix. Impact is quantified through technical, cost and schedule elements. Likelihood depends on the risk mitigation strategy adopted. A cost benefit analysis determines the most cost effective risk mitigation strategy. An essential element in risk mitigation is the testing of equipment prior to installation on the ITER machine. This paper argues the need for low- and highpower millimetre wave tests carried out on the fully assembled ECUPL. It presents a conceptual design for a dedicated on-site test bed that can handle 2 of 8 microwave beams at 2 MW long pulse operation.

  8. Maturity-independent risk measures

    OpenAIRE

    Zariphopoulou, Thaleia; Zitkovic, Gordan

    2007-01-01

    The new notion of maturity-independent risk measures is introduced and contrasted with the existing risk measurement concepts. It is shown, by means of two examples, one set on a finite probability space and the other in a diffusion framework, that, surprisingly, some of the widely utilized risk measures cannot be used to build maturity-independent counterparts. We construct a large class of maturity-independent risk measures and give representative examples in both continuo...

  9. 49 CFR 192.935 - What additional preventive and mitigative measures must an operator take?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ...preventive and mitigative measures must an operator take? 192.935 Section 192.935 Transportation Other Regulations Relating... Gas Transmission Pipeline Integrity Management § 192.935 What additional preventive and mitigative...

  10. A risk-mitigation approach to the management of induced seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bommer, Julian J.; Crowley, Helen; Pinho, Rui

    2015-04-01

    Earthquakes may be induced by a wide range of anthropogenic activities such as mining, fluid injection and extraction, and hydraulic fracturing. In recent years, the increased occurrence of induced seismicity and the impact of some of these earthquakes on the built environment have heightened both public concern and regulatory scrutiny, motivating the need for a framework for the management of induced seismicity. Efforts to develop systems to enable control of seismicity have not yet resulted in solutions that can be applied with confidence in most cases. The more rational approach proposed herein is based on applying the same risk quantification and mitigation measures that are applied to the hazard from natural seismicity. This framework allows informed decision-making regarding the conduct of anthropogenic activities that may cause earthquakes. The consequent risk, if related to non-structural damage (when re-location is not an option), can be addressed by appropriate financial compensation. If the risk poses a threat to life and limb, then it may be reduced through the application of strengthening measures in the built environment—the cost of which can be balanced against the economic benefits of the activity in question—rather than attempting to ensure that some threshold on earthquake magnitude or ground-shaking amplitude is not exceeded. However, because of the specific characteristics of induced earthquakes—which may occur in regions with little or no natural seismicity—the procedures used in standard earthquake engineering need adaptation and modification for application to induced seismicity.

  11. A risk-mitigation approach to the management of induced seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bommer, Julian J.; Crowley, Helen; Pinho, Rui

    2015-02-01

    Earthquakes may be induced by a wide range of anthropogenic activities such as mining, fluid injection and extraction, and hydraulic fracturing. In recent years, the increased occurrence of induced seismicity and the impact of some of these earthquakes on the built environment have heightened both public concern and regulatory scrutiny, motivating the need for a framework for the management of induced seismicity. Efforts to develop systems to enable control of seismicity have not yet resulted in solutions that can be applied with confidence in most cases. The more rational approach proposed herein is based on applying the same risk quantification and mitigation measures that are applied to the hazard from natural seismicity. This framework allows informed decision-making regarding the conduct of anthropogenic activities that may cause earthquakes. The consequent risk, if related to non-structural damage (when re-location is not an option), can be addressed by appropriate financial compensation. If the risk poses a threat to life and limb, then it may be reduced through the application of strengthening measures in the built environment—the cost of which can be balanced against the economic benefits of the activity in question—rather than attempting to ensure that some threshold on earthquake magnitude or ground-shaking amplitude is not exceeded. However, because of the specific characteristics of induced earthquakes—which may occur in regions with little or no natural seismicity—the procedures used in standard earthquake engineering need adaptation and modification for application to induced seismicity.

  12. Measuring model risk

    OpenAIRE

    Sibbertsen, Philipp; Stahl, Gerhard; Luedtke, Corinna

    2008-01-01

    Model risk as part of the operational risk is a serious problem for financial institutions. As the pricing of derivatives as well as the computation of the market or credit risk of an institution depend on statistical models the application of a wrong model can lead to a serious over- or underestimation of the institution's risk. Because the underlying data generating process is unknown in practice evaluating the model risk is a challenge. So far, definitions of model risk are either applicat...

  13. Risk Measures in Quantitative Finance

    OpenAIRE

    Mitra, Sovan

    2009-01-01

    This paper was presented and written for two seminars: a national UK University Risk Conference and a Risk Management industry workshop. The target audience is therefore a cross section of Academics and industry professionals. The current ongoing global credit crunch has highlighted the importance of risk measurement in Finance to companies and regulators alike. Despite risk measurement's central importance to risk management, few papers exist reviewing them or following t...

  14. Mitigating mountain hazards in Austria – legislation, risk transfer, and awareness building

    OpenAIRE

    Holub, M.; Fuchs, S.

    2009-01-01

    Embedded in the overall concept of integral risk management, mitigating mountain hazards is pillared by land use regulations, risk transfer, and information. In this paper aspects on legislation related to natural hazards in Austria are summarised, with a particular focus on spatial planning activities and hazard mapping, and possible adaptations focussing on enhanced resilience are outlined. Furthermore, the system of risk transfer is discussed, highlighting the importance of creating incent...

  15. Land Use Scenario Modeling for Flood Risk Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Barredo, Jose? I.; Guy Engelen

    2010-01-01

    It is generally accepted that flood risk has been increasing in Europe in the last decades. Accordingly, it becomes a priority to better understand its drivers and mechanisms. Flood risk is evaluated on the basis of three factors: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. If one of these factors increases, then so does the risk. Land use change models used for ex-ante assessment of spatial trends provide planners with powerful tools for territorial decision making. However, until recently this type...

  16. Modeling and Measurements for Mitigating Interface from Skyshine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kernan, Warnick J.; Mace, Emily K.; Siciliano, Edward R.; Conlin, Kenneth E.; Flumerfelt, Eric L.; Kouzes, Richard T.; Woodring, Mitchell L.

    2009-12-21

    ?Abstract– Skyshine, the radiation scattered in the air above a high-activity gamma-ray source, can produce interference with radiation portal monitor (RPM) systems at distances up to even many hundred meters. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has been engaged in a campaign of measurements, design work and modeling that explore methods of mitigating the effects of skyshine on outdoor measurements with sensitive instruments. An overview of our work with shielding of skyshine is being reported by us in another paper at this conference. This paper will concentrate on two topics: measurements and modeling with Monte Carlo transport calculations to characterize skyshine from an iridium-192 source, and testing of a prototype louver system, designed and fabricated at PNNL, as a shielding approach to limit the impact of skyshine interference on RPM systems.

  17. Tsunami prevention and mitigation necessities and options derived from tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Steinmetz, T.; Mück, M.; Strunz, G.; Riedlinger, T.; Anwar, H. Z.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.

    2009-04-01

    Risk and vulnerability assessment is an important component of an effective End-to-End Tsunami Early Warning System and therefore contributes significantly to disaster risk reduction. Risk assessment is a key strategy to implement and design adequate disaster prevention and mitigation measures. The knowledge about expected tsunami hazard impacts, exposed elements, their susceptibility, coping and adaptation mechanisms is a precondition for the development of people-centred warning structures, local specific response and recovery policy planning. The developed risk assessment and its components reflect the disaster management cycle (disaster time line) and cover the early warning as well as the emergency response phase. Consequently the components hazard assessment, exposure (e.g. how many people/ critical facilities are affected?), susceptibility (e.g. are the people able to receive a tsunami warning?), coping capacity (are the people able to evacuate in time?) and recovery (are the people able to restore their livelihoods?) are addressed and quantified. Thereby the risk assessment encompasses three steps: (i) identifying the nature, location, intensity and probability of potential tsunami threats (hazard assessment); (ii) determining the existence and degree of exposure and susceptibility to those threats; and (iii) identifying the coping capacities and resources available to address or manage these threats. The paper presents results of the research work, which is conducted in the framework of the GITEWS project and the Joint Indonesian-German Working Group on Risk Modelling and Vulnerability Assessment. The assessment methodology applied follows a people-centred approach to deliver relevant risk and vulnerability information for the purposes of early warning and disaster management. The analyses are considering the entire coastal areas of Sumatra, Java and Bali facing the Sunda trench. Selected results and products like risk maps, guidelines, decision support information and other GIS products will be presented. The focus of the products is on the one hand to provide relevant risk assessment products as decision support to issue a tsunami warning within the early warning stage. On the other hand the maps and GIS products shall provide relevant information to enable local decision makers to act adequately concerning their local risks. It is shown that effective prevention and mitigation measures can be designed based on risk assessment results and information especially when used pro-active and beforehand a disaster strikes. The conducted hazard assessment provides the probability of an area to be affected by a tsunami threat divided into two ranked impact zones. The two divided impact zones directly relate to tsunami warning levels issued by the Early Warning Center and consequently enable the local decision maker to base their planning (e.g. evacuation) accordingly. Within the tsunami hazard assessment several hundred pre-computed tsunami scenarios are analysed. This is combined with statistical analysis of historical event data. Probabilities of tsunami occurrence considering probabilities of different earthquake magnitudes, occurrences of specific wave heights at coast and spatial inundation probability are computed. Hazard assessment is then combined with a comprehensive vulnerability assessment. Here deficits in e.g. people's ability to receive and understand a tsunami warning and deficits in their ability to respond adequately (evacuate on time) are quantified and are visualized for the respective coastal areas. Hereby socio-economic properties (determining peoples ability to understand a warning and to react) are combined with environmental conditions (land cover, slope, population density) to calculate the time needed to evacuate (reach a tsunami safe area derived through the hazard assessment). This is implemented using a newly developed GIS cost-distance weighting approach. For example, the amount of people affected in a certain area is dependent on expected tsunami intensity, inundated area, estimated tsuna

  18. Thermal study of payload module for the next-generation infrared space telescope SPICA in risk mitigation phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinozaki, Keisuke; Sato, Yoichi; Sawada, Kenichiro; Ando, Makiko; Sugita, Hiroyuki; Yamawaki, Toshihiro; Mizutani, Tadahiro; Komatsu, Keiji; Nakagawa, Takao; Murakami, Hiroshi; Matsuhara, Hideo; Takada, Makoto; Takai, Shigeki; Okabayashi, Akinobu; Tsunematsu, Shoji; Kanao, Kenichi; Narasaki, Katsuhiro

    2014-11-01

    SPace Infrared telescope for Cosmology and Astrophysics (SPICA) is a pre-project of JAXA in collaboration with ESA to be launched around 2020. The SPICA is transferred into a halo orbit around the second Lagrangian point (L2) in the Sun-Earth system, which enables us to use effective radiant cooling in combination with mechanical cooling system in order to cool a 3 m large IR telescope below 6 K. At a present, a conceptional study of SPICA is underway to assess and mitigate mission's risks; the thermal study for the risk mitigation sets a goal of a 25% margin on cooling power of 4 K/1 K temperature regions, a 25% margin on the heat load from Focal Plane Instruments (FPIs) at intermediated temperature region, to enhance the reliability of the mechanical cooler system, and to enhance feasibility of ground tests. Thermal property measurements of FRP materials are also important. This paper introduces details of the thermal design study for risk mitigation, including development of the truss separation mechanism, the cryogenic radiator, mechanical cooler system, and thermal property measurements of materials.

  19. High-Frequency Risk Measures

    OpenAIRE

    Banulescu, Denisa Georgiana; Colletaz, Gilbert; Hurlin, Christophe; Tokpavi, Sessi

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes intraday High Frequency Risk (HFR) measures for market risk in the case of irregularly spaced high-frequency data. In this context, we distinguish three concepts of value-at-risk (VaR): the total VaR, the marginal (or per-time-unit) VaR, and the instantaneous VaR. Since the market risk is obviously related to the duration between two consecutive trades, these measures are completed with a duration risk measure, i.e., the time-at-risk (TaR). We propose a forecasting procedu...

  20. Radon research and practice in Bulgaria - from retrospective measurements to mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An overview of ongoing directions of radon studies in the Faculty of Physics, St. Kliment Ohridski University of Sofia is presented. The focus is on: 1) Study and implementation of the polycarbonate method for measuring 222Rn. In this respect the results from laboratory and field experience with this method are summarized. Its potential for precise retrospective measurements by home stored CDs/DVDs is emphasized. 2) Surveys in radon risk areas in the country. The approaches and results in this direction are illustrated on the example of the town of Rakovski. In this town lung cancer risk is twice increased for both sexes. Significantly high 222Rn concentrations were observed in most of the houses and this can be the major factor contributing to the risk. 3) Mitigation of dwellings with high radon content. Mitigation works were recently initiated and our experience with passive radon barriers and active sub-slab depressurization systems is shared. Summarizing the results in all the three directions we conclude that there is a basis to enhance radon research and practice in the country. To be more efficient, these activities need collaboration with medical authorities, civil engineers and, especially in research, with international teams working in the field. (authors)

  1. INTERNAL AUDIT AND ITS APPROACH TO THE RISK MITIGATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VADIM BENEŠ

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This thesis is analyzing the modern role of the internal audit in corporate(mainly banking structures. It describes the changes made in the social role ofauditing during the years and emphasizes the internal audit´s risk managementfunction, rather than just control function. Attention is given to the methodology used,especially to the currently most widespread risk-based auditing approach. Also one ofthe most recent approaches to auditing – so called continuous auditing - is brieflydescribed and the possibilities of its implementation into the risk-based framework areoutlined.

  2. Atmospheric Effects on InSAR Measurements and Their Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Xiao-li; Li, Zhi-wei; Zhu, Jian-jun; Feng, Guang-cai; Long, Jiang-ping

    2008-01-01

    Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is a powerful technology for observing the Earth surface, especially for mapping the Earth's topography and deformations. InSAR measurements are however often significantly affected by the atmosphere as the radar signals propagate through the atmosphere whose state varies both in space and in time. Great efforts have been made in recent years to better understand the properties of the atmospheric effects and to develop methods for mitigating the effects. This paper provides a systematic review of the work carried out in this area. The basic principles of atmospheric effects on repeat-pass InSAR are first introduced. The studies on the properties of the atmospheric effects, including the magnitudes of the effects determined in the various parts of the world, the spectra of the atmospheric effects, the isotropic properties and the statistical distributions of the effects, are then discussed. The various methods developed for mitigating the atmospheric effects are then reviewed, including the methods that are based on PSInSAR processing, the methods that are based on interferogram modeling, and those that are based on external data such as GPS observations, ground meteorological data, and satellite data including those from the MODIS and MERIS. Two examples that use MODIS and MERIS data respectively to calibrate atmospheric effects on InSAR are also given.

  3. Atmospheric Effects on InSAR Measurements and Their Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang-ping Long

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR is a powerful technology for observing the Earth surface, especially for mapping the Earth's topography and deformations. InSAR measurements are however often significantly affected by the atmosphere as the radar signals propagate through the atmosphere whose state varies both in space and in time. Great efforts have been made in recent years to better understand the properties of the atmospheric effects and to develop methods for mitigating the effects. This paper provides a systematic review of the work carried out in this area. The basic principles of atmospheric effects on repeat-pass InSAR are first introduced. The studies on the properties of the atmospheric effects, including the magnitudes of the effects determined in the various parts of the world, the spectra of the atmospheric effects, the isotropic properties and the statistical distributions of the effects, are then discussed. The various methods developed for mitigating the atmospheric effects are then reviewed, including the methods that are based on PSInSAR processing, the methods that are based on interferogram modeling, and those that are based on external data such as GPS observations, ground meteorological data, and satellite data including those from the MODIS and MERIS. Two examples that use MODIS and MERIS data respectively to calibrate atmospheric effects on InSAR are also given.

  4. INTERNAL AUDIT AND ITS APPROACH TO THE RISK MITIGATION

    OpenAIRE

    VADIM BENEŠ

    2012-01-01

    This thesis is analyzing the modern role of the internal audit in corporate(mainly banking) structures. It describes the changes made in the social role ofauditing during the years and emphasizes the internal audit´s risk managementfunction, rather than just control function. Attention is given to the methodology used,especially to the currently most widespread risk-based auditing approach. Also one ofthe most recent approaches to auditing – so called continuous auditing - is brieflydescri...

  5. Taming Trojan Horses: Identifying and Mitigating Corporate Social Responsibility Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Heugens, P. P. M. A. R.; Dentchev, N. A.

    2007-01-01

    Organizations are exposed to increasing pressures from their constituents to integrate corporate social responsibility (CSR) principles into their ongoing business practices. But accepting new and potentially open-ended commitments is not a harmless exercise, and companies may well expose themselves to serious risks when embracing such principles. To identify these risks, we conducted two naturalistic studies: one exploratory, the other corroborative. The results show that CSR adoption is ass...

  6. Information and education as a basis of risk mitigation for the citizens of Catalonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guamis, J.; Burckhart, K.; Grau, A.

    2009-09-01

    The General Directorate for Civil Protection of the Catalan Government is in charge of the drawing up and validation of plans that identify risk and establish a joint system of response actions to minimize the consequences of damages caused by emergencies. The risks covered are natural (fire, snow, flooding, heat,...) and human (chemical industry, transport of dangerous goods,...) ones. In the special case of flooding, an Emergency Flood Plan for Catalonia (INUNCAT) exists. Its aim is to minimize the effects and damages to people, property or the environment due to floods within the region of Catalonia. In the following, the actions on active prevention currently realized by Civil Protection in this Mediterranean region regarding risk mitigation of flooding are described. Special emphasis is laid on the prevention of risk situations through advanced information and education which aim at diminishing the vulnerability of the population. The preparedness of the population to face a serious flooding depends highly on the level of the citizens’ self-protection. Therefore the collection and dissemination of recommendations on adequate behaviour is crucial. The Catalan Government realizes different activities to foster the understanding and the correct behaviour of the citizens in case of flooding. Informative sessions to target groups, opinion studies, mass media communication and itinerant exhibitions are some of the elements applied to increase social consciousness and mitigate the vulnerability of the population. Among these, sensitization campaigns play a crucial role. A coherent system of information and education is adhered to these campaigns. Informative material (posters, leaflets, web sites) and sessions are part of the activities which are addressed to different social group and aim at rising the population’s awareness on the risk of flooding. Multidisciplinary presentations and expert speeches on adequate behaviour are given to stakeholders in those areas which are potentially affected by flooding or which are situated downriver of big water reservoirs. These stakeholders act as multipliers to pass on the recommendations emitted by the Catalan Government. Mass communication is a means of reaching a wide part of the population. TV spots, radio announcements and newspaper advertisements on correct behaviour in a certain emergency do already exist for certain risks, but are still missing in the case of flooding. The realization of opinion studies contribute to a better understanding of the citizens’ risk perception. The opinion study includes questions like: What do you know about recommendations on behaviour during flooding? or What would you do if you found themselves in an emergency? When contrasting the results, the effectiveness of existing campaigns is put on proof and the content and canal of future campaigns can be determined. The General Directorate for Civil Protection has created an itinerant exhibition as an additional activity to increase the populations’ consciousness on the potential risks in the Mediterranean region of Catalonia. It includes the main preventive measures the citizens have to take in case of an emergency and depicts recommendations for self-protection. The exhibition is displayed at municipal level and is designated to approach the maximum number of citizens. The participation in European projects, such as RINAMED, is a way to increase the interchange of know-how and strengthen international communication. In the case of RINAMED the objective was to provide the citizens living in the Mediterranean areas with a better knowledge of the natural risks. The joint effort of the different member regions contributed to establish a common frame of prevention and information in order to increase risk preparedness in the Mediterranean area. For future improvement and advances regarding educational and informative tasks, one of the aims is to obtain direct involvement of the population and to reach specific target groups through opinion leaders. Moreover the need to build partnership or stre

  7. [Guidance of FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy and enlightenment to drug risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuanyuan; Xie, Yanming

    2011-10-01

    The FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) aims to drugs or biological products known or potential serious risk management. Analysis with the example of the content of the Onsolis REMS named FOCOS. Our country can be reference for the analysis of relevant experience and establish a scientific evaluation mechanism, strengthen the drug risk consciousness, promote the rational drug use, organic combined with the before-marketing and post-marketing evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine, and promote the evaluation of risk management of the drug development and improvement. PMID:22292376

  8. Mitigating Real or Perceived Risks: A Pro-Active Approach for Dealing with Naysayers and Critics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schutte, Bart; Jones, Kevin

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews an approach to mitigating real or perceived risks from "Naysayers" and critics in developing and using the software tools available with web 2.0. Some of the issues are about the use of the tools, the ability of management to control the use of these tools, privacy issues and the time the people spend using these tools.

  9. Risk mitigation: Planning and emergency; La gestione del rischio: Dall`emergenza al piano

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menoni, Scira [Politecnico di Milano, Milan (Italy). Dipt. di Scienze del Territorio

    1997-10-01

    In the last years many scholars have recognized what an important tool for risk mitigation land use planning is. Looking at risk from a planner`s perspective requires to adopt a systemic approach, according to which it`s impossible to isolate risky objects from their geographical and social environment. Furthermore a systemic approach fosters planners take into account the chains of potential failures that might affect both punctual and linear sources of damage, that is not only one risk at a time, but multiple risks which jeopardize the correct working of plants, networks, and of entire metropolitan and regional areas.

  10. A NOVEL RISK ANALYSIS AND MITIGATION METHOD IN DISTRIBUTED BANKING SYSTEM

    OpenAIRE

    Kiran, K. V. D.; Reddy, L. S. S.; Seetharama Prasad, M.

    2013-01-01

    The paper introduces a Fractional Reverse Banking like Distributed Banking System and the infrastructure is becoming more and more complex, and connected to large number of security issues and amount of risks to readiness assets are increasing. This is done to expand the economy by freeing up capital that can be loaned out to other parties. Most countries operate under this type of system. Hence, the process of identification, analysis, and mitigation of Information Security risks has assumed...

  11. Addressing software security risk mitigations in the life cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilliam, David; Powell, John; Haugh, Eric; Bishop, Matt

    2003-01-01

    The NASA Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA) has funded the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) with a Center Initiative, 'Reducing Software Security Risk through an Integrated Approach' (RSSR), to address this need. The Initiative is a formal approach to addressing software security in the life cycle through the instantiation of a Software Security Assessment Instrument (SSAI) for the development and maintenance life cycles.

  12. Spectral Risk Measures and the Choice of Risk Aversion Function

    OpenAIRE

    Dowd, Kevin; Cotter, John

    2011-01-01

    Spectral risk measures are attractive risk measures as they allow the user to obtain risk measures that reflect their risk-aversion functions. To date there has been very little guidance on the choice of risk-aversion functions underlying spectral risk measures. This paper addresses this issue by examining two popular risk aversion functions, based on exponential and power utility functions respectively. We find that the former yields spectral risk measures with nice intuiti...

  13. Uses of risk importance measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk importance measures provide an understandable and practical way of presenting probabilistic safety analysis results which too often tend to remain abstract numbers without real insight into the content. The report clarifies the definitions, relationships and interpretations of the three most basic measures: Risk increase factor, risk decrease factor, and fractional contribution. The above three measures already cover the main types of risk importance measures. Many other importance measures presented in literature are close variants to some of these three measures. They are related in many cases so that, for a technical system considered, the two other measures can be derived from the one calculated first. However, the practical interpretations are different, and hence each three measures have their own uses and rights to existence. The fundamental aspect of importance measures is, that they express some specific influence of a basic event on the total risk. The basic failure or error events are the elements from which the reliability and risk models are constituted. The importance measures are relative, which is an advantage compared to absolute risk numbers, due to insensitivity with respect to quantification uncertainties. Therefore they are particularly adapted to give first hand guidance where to focus main interest from the system's risk and reliability point of view and wherefrom to continue the analysis with more sophisticated methods requiring more effort

  14. Supply Chain Risk Management : Identification, Evaluation and Mitigation Techniques

    OpenAIRE

    Musa, S. Nurmaya

    2012-01-01

    Supply chains have expanded rapidly over the decades, with the aim to increase productivity, lower costs and fulfil demands in emerging markets. The increasing complexity in a supply chain hinders visibility and consequently reduces one’s control over the process. Cases of disruption such as the ones faced by Ericsson and Enron, have shown that a risk event occurring at one point of the supply chain can greatly affect other members, when the disruption is not properly controlled. Supply cha...

  15. Risks evaluation and mitigation in the new energetic markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The central issue of debate was the need to align the energy sector's options and organization with changing global patterns of economic and social development, characterized by the increasing role played by the private sector, greater integration in the world economy, and new economic and social priorities such as efficiency, decentralization, deregulation, and a closer attention to environmental issues. The aim of the work was to evaluate the Brazilian electric power market risks and the their agents' relationship after the privatization advent

  16. Recommended Mitigation Measures for an Influenza Pandemic in Remote and Isolated First Nations Communities of Ontario, Canada: A Community-Based Participatory Research Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Charania, Nadia A.; Js, Leonard Tsuji

    2014-01-01

    Influenza pandemics disproportionately impact remote and/or isolated Indigenous communities worldwide. The differential risk experienced by such communities warrants the recommendation of specific mitigation measures. Interviewer-administered questionnaires were conducted with adult key health care informants from three remote and isolated Canadian First Nations communities of sub-Arctic Ontario. Forty-eight mitigation measures (including the setting, pandemic period, trigger, and duration) w...

  17. Developing high-risk scenarios and countermeasure ideas for mitigation of hazardous materials incidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kansas State University (KSU) conducted a comprehensive study of the development of a set of prioritized, extreme-risk scenarios, the development of a set of feasible, practical and implementable protective systems, and a report to summarize guidelines on the use of these protective systems to mitigate potential, extreme-risk situations that could occur during the transport of hazardous materials (Hazmat) on our highway system. This paper covers the methodology used to compete the first tow objectives with use of a state's panel. The research study was limited to materials (such as LNG, propane, gasoline, etc.) spilled within the highway system. It focused on potential risks which would result in severe, long-term, permanent, irreparable or catastrophic consequences, and existing technology and state-of-the-art knowledge for development of protective systems to mitigate these consequences. The protective systems within the scope of this study were systems constructed or physically incorporated into the highway system or modifications thereto

  18. Transmission System Operational Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Condez-godziemba, Cyril

    2012-01-01

    As transmission networks are getting older and as their components are reaching their life span’s end, the number of maintenance outages for equipments reparation or replacement is destined to gradually increase in the coming years. These outages weaken system’s security and lead to highstress situations that often do not comply with N-k operation rules. Thus in-depth risk analysis have to be performed in those cases, to ensure system’s smooth operation and optimal maintenance planning....

  19. Market power mitigation by regulating contract portfolio risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abuse of market power by dominant generation firms is a growing concern in worldwide electricity markets. This paper argues that relying only on general competition rules-as is the case in most European countries-is insufficient and that complementary ex-ante regulation is needed. In particular, regulators should incentivize firms to sign contracts with retailers by regulating their risk exposure. In a simulation model we show that this type of regulation can significantly reduce the deadweight loss in the market, without imposing large costs on regulatees

  20. An Efficient Approach towards Mitigating Soft Errors Risks

    CERN Document Server

    Sadi, Muhammad Sheikh; Uddin, Md Nazim; Jürjens, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Smaller feature size, higher clock frequency and lower power consumption are of core concerns of today's nano-technology, which has been resulted by continuous downscaling of CMOS technologies. The resultant 'device shrinking' reduces the soft error tolerance of the VLSI circuits, as very little energy is needed to change their states. Safety critical systems are very sensitive to soft errors. A bit flip due to soft error can change the value of critical variable and consequently the system control flow can completely be changed which leads to system failure. To minimize soft error risks, a novel methodology is proposed to detect and recover from soft errors considering only 'critical code blocks' and 'critical variables' rather than considering all variables and/or blocks in the whole program. The proposed method shortens space and time overhead in comparison to existing dominant approaches.

  1. Building damage classification and loss assessment for risk mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this paper is to present a uniform procedure for examining and reporting building damage both in urban and in rural areas so that a data bank on earthquake effects might be established and used for the effective estimation of economic losses. Assessment of direct economic losses is illustrated by a summary presentation of earthquake damage classification performed on 16,478 residential buildings and on all 57,640 buildings damaged by the earthquake of July 26, 1963 in Skopje and April 15, 1979 in Montenegro earthquakes, respectively. Use of these methods and procedures will yield an adequate volume of data to assist community and national authorities in the elaboration and performance of effective seismic risk reduction programmes. (author). 19 refs, 6 figs, 5 tabs

  2. An Efficient Approach towards Mitigating Soft Errors Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Sheikh Sadi

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Smaller feature size, higher clock frequency and lower power consumption are of core concerns of today’snano-technology, which has been resulted by continuous downscaling of CMOS technologies. The resultant‘device shrinking’ reduces the soft error tolerance of the VLSI circuits, as very little energy is needed tochange their states. Safety critical systems are very sensitive to soft errors. A bit flip due to soft error canchange the value of critical variable and consequently the system control flow can completely be changedwhich leads to system failure. To minimize soft error risks, a novel methodology is proposed to detect andrecover from soft errors considering only ‘critical code blocks’ and ‘critical variables’ rather thanconsidering all variables and/or blocks in the whole program. The proposed method shortens space andtime overhead in comparison to existing dominant approaches.

  3. Overview of mitigation policies and measures in the forestry sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathaye, J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab., CA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    In this paper the author addresses questions on how the forestry sector can make a contribution to the general problem of greenhouse gases in the environment. Primarily this is in the form of carbon conservation and sequestering. There is a potential land area for conservation and sequestration estimated to be 700 Mha. The total carbon that could be sequestered and conserved globally by 2050 on this land is 60 - 87 GtC. Slowing deforestation, assisting regeneration, forestation and agroforestry are the primary mitigation measures for carbon conservation and sequestration. For long term success, enforcement to halt deforestation has to be accompained by economic and/or other benefits to the deforesters that equal or exceed their current remuneration. Making plantations a significant fuel for utility electricity generation will require higher biomass yields and thermal efficiency matching that of conventional plants. Significant reduction of global carbon emissions requires national governments to institute measures that provide local, national, economic and other benefits while conserving and sequestering carbon.

  4. 30 CFR 250.254 - What mitigation measures information must accompany the DPP or DOCD?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ...mitigation measures information must accompany the DPP or DOCD? 250.254 Section 250.254...Contents of Development and Production Plans (dpp) and Development Operations Coordination...mitigation measures information must accompany the DPP or DOCD? (a) If you propose...

  5. Tychastic measure of viability risk

    CERN Document Server

    Aubin, Jean-Pierre; Dordan, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    This book presents a forecasting mechanism of the price intervals for deriving the SCR (solvency capital requirement) eradicating the risk during the exercise period on one hand, and measuring the risk by computing the hedging exit time function associating with smaller investments the date until which the value of the portfolio hedges the liabilities on the other. This information, summarized under the term “tychastic viability measure of risk” is an evolutionary alternative to statistical measures, when dealing with evolutions under uncertainty. The book is written by experts in the field and the target audience primarily comprises research experts and practitioners.

  6. RISK MANAGEMENT MEASURES IN CMMI

    OpenAIRE

    Mahmoud Khraiwesh

    2012-01-01

    Risk management is a continuous process that could endanger the objectives of a project or application.Risks are handled to reduce and avoid threats effects on the objectives of the project. The sources of riskare both internal and external to the project. This research will identify general measures for the specificgoal and its specific practices of Risk Management Process Area (PA) in Capability Maturity ModelIntegration (CMMI). CMMI is developed by Software Engineering Institute (SEI) in C...

  7. Airflow measurement techniques applied to radon mitigation problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During the past decade a multitude of diagnostic procedures associated with the evaluation of air infiltration and air leakage sites have been developed. The spirit of international cooperation and exchange of ideas within the AIC-AIVC conferences has greatly facilitated the adoption and use of these measurement techniques in the countries participating in Annex V. But wide application of such diagnostic methods are not limited to air infiltration alone. The subject of this paper concerns the ways to evaluate and improve radon reduction in buildings using diagnostic methods directly related to developments familiar to the AIVC. Radon problems are certainly not unique to the United States, and the methods described here have to a degree been applied by researchers of other countries faced with similar problems. The radon problem involves more than a harmful pollutant of the living spaces of our buildings -- it also involves energy to operate radon removal equipment and the loss of interior conditioned air as a direct result. The techniques used for air infiltration evaluation will be shown to be very useful in dealing with the radon mitigation challenge. 10 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab

  8. 50 CFR 665.815 - Pelagic longline seabird mitigation measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ...Fisheries FISHERY CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT...Seabird mitigation techniques. When deep-setting...albatross handling techniques. If a short-tailed...give the bird food or water; and (11) Complete...albatross seabird handling techniques. If a seabird...

  9. Outreach Programs, Peer Pressure, and Common Sense: What Motivates Homeowners to Mitigate Wildfire Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaffrey, Sarah M.; Stidham, Melanie; Toman, Eric; Shindler, Bruce

    2011-09-01

    In recent years, altered forest conditions, climate change, and the increasing numbers of homes built in fire prone areas has meant that wildfires are affecting more people. An important part of minimizing the potential negative impacts of wildfire is engaging homeowners in mitigating the fire hazard on their land. It is therefore important to understand what makes homeowners more or less willing to take action. The research presented here comes from a study that interviewed a total of 198 homeowners in six communities in the western United States about the activities they had undertaken to mitigate their fire risk, the factors that contributed to their decisions, and their future intentions. The current paper reports on findings from the first half of the longitudinal study, after 3 years we will return to interview the current homeowner on the same properties to assess maintenance actions and facilitating and limiting factors. Overall we found a body of individuals who understand the fire risk, are taking numerous mitigation actions, and think that these actions have reduced their risk. These homeowners typically did not expect the government to do it for them: they wanted information about what to do and, in some cases, assistance with the work, but saw taking care of their property primarily as their responsibility. Responses also show that key information sources and motivating factors vary by location and that it is not inherently necessary to have relationships between community members to create defensible space.

  10. Outcomes measures and risk adjustment

    OpenAIRE

    Lane-fall, Meghan B.; Neuman, Mark D.

    2013-01-01

    This paper reviews the field of outcomes measurement in anesthesia and surgery, emphasizing those outcomes that may be influenced by perioperative care. Data sources for outcomes measurement are described, and the concept of risk adjustment is introduced. The basic mechanics of outcomes measurement and its pitfalls are explained. Finally, specific perioperative outcomes - mortality, readmission and composite outcomes - are described and their limitations are considered.

  11. Thailand's Low-Carbon Scenario 2050: The AIM/CGE analyses of CO2 mitigation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change and CO2 mitigation have become increasingly important environmental issues. Recently Thailand has proposed policies on GHG mitigation such as Thailand’s Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA), which aims at GHG mitigation in the energy sector. This study used the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, called “AIM/CGE” model, to analyse GHG mitigation measures under emission trading and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology in Thailand. Results show that the international free emission trading policy can drive more GHG reduction by decreasing energy supply and demand, and increasing prices of emissions. The CCS technologies would balance emission reduction but they would reduce energy efficiency improvement and renewable energy utilization. In the energy security aspect, the policy options in this study would improve energy security, energy import dependency, and co-benefits of GHG mitigation in forms of improving local air quality. Results are also helpful to GHG mitigation policy in developing countries. -- Highlights: •A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was used to analyze GHG mitigation policies in Thailand. •The CCS and emission trading will increase GHG mitigation in Thailand. •The 30% GHG mitigation target with 50% emission trading will give the best result in GDP. •The share of biomass resource and energy efficiency will decrease with CCS. •The emission trading will play an important role in decreasing fossil consumption and increasing renewable energy utilization

  12. Uncertainty Quantification and Risk Mitigation of CO2 Leakage in Groundwater Aquifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Y.; Tong, C.; Mansoor, K.; Carroll, S.

    2013-12-01

    The risk of CO2 leakage into shallow aquifers through various pathways such as faults and abandoned wells is a concern of CO2 geological sequestration. If a leak is detected in an aquifer system, a contingency plan is required to manage the CO2 storage and to protect the groundwater source. Among many remediation and mitigation strategies, the simplest is to stop CO2 leakage at a wellbore. Therefore, it is necessary to address whether and when the CO2 leaks should be sealed, and how much risk can be mitigated. In the presence of various uncertainties, including geological-structure uncertainty and parametric uncertainty, the risk of CO2 leakage into an aquifer needs to be assessed with probabilistic distributions of uncertain parameters. In this study, we developed an integrated model to simulate multiphase flow of CO2 and brine in a deep storage reservoir, through a leaky well at an uncertain location, and subsequently multicomponent reactive transport in a shallow aquifer. Each sub-model covers its domain-specific physics. Uncertainties of geological structure and parameters are considered together with decision variables (CO2 injection rate and mitigation time) for risk assessment of leakage-impacted aquifer volume. High-resolution and less-expensive reduced-order models (ROMs) of risk profiles are approximated as polynomial functions of decision variables and all uncertain parameters. These reduced-order models are then used in the place of computationally-expensive numerical models for future decision-making on if and when the leaky well is sealed. The tradeoff between CO2 storage capacity in the reservoir and the leakage-induced risk in the aquifer is evaluated. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

  13. SILER: Seismic-Initiated events risk mitigation in Lead-cooled Reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SILER is a Collaborative Project, partially funded by the European Commission, aimed at studying the risk associated to seismic initiated events in Generation IV Heavy Liquid Metal reactors and developing adequate protection measures. The attention is focused on the evaluation of the effects of earthquakes (with particular regards to beyond design seismic events) and to the identification of mitigation strategies, acting both on structures and components design (as well as on the development of seismic isolation devices) which can also have positive effects on economics, leading to an high level of plant design standardization. Attention is also devoted to the identification of plant layout solutions able to avoid risks of radioactive release from both the core and other structures (i.e. the spent fuel storage pools). Specific effort is paid to the development of guidelines and design recommendations for addressing the seismic issue in next generation reactor systems. In addition, consideration will be devoted to transfer the knowledge developed in the project to Generation III advanced systems, in line with the objective of the SNE-TP SRA to support present and future Light Water Reactors and their further development, for which safety issues are key aspects to be addressed. Note, in this respect, that the benefits of base isolation in terms of response to design seismic actions are already widely recognized for Generation III LWRs, along with the possibility of a siI LWRs, along with the possibility of a significant standardization of structural and equipment design. SILER activities started on October 1 st 2011 and are carried out by 18 partners: ENEA (Italy, Coordinator), AREVA NP SAS (France), SCK-CEN (Belgium), FIP Industriale (Italy), MAURER SOHENE (Germany), EC-JRC (Ispra (Italy)), SINTEC (Italy), KTH (Sweden), BOA-BKT (Germany), IDOM (Spain), ANSALDO (Italy), IPUL (Latvia), NUMERIA (Italy), VCE (Austria), SRS (Italy), CEA (France), EA (Spain), NUVIA (France). (authors)

  14. Current issues in dietary acrylamide:formation,mitigation and risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedreschi, F.; Salome Mariotti, M.

    2014-01-01

    Acrylamide (AA) is known as a neurotoxin in humans and it is classified as a probable human carcinogen by the International Agency of Research on Cancer. AA is produced as by-product of the Maillard reaction in starchy foods processed at high temperatures (>120 °C). This review includes the investigation of AA precursors, mechanisms of AA formation and AA mitigation technologies in potato, cereal and coffee products. Additionally, most relevant issues of AA risk assessment are discussed. New technologies tested from laboratory to industrial scale face, as a major challenge, the reduction of AA content of browned food, while still maintaining its attractive organoleptic properties. Reducing sugars such as glucose and fructose are the major contributors to AA in potato-based products. On the other hand, the limiting substrate of AA formation in cereals and coffee is the free amino acid asparagine. For some products the addition of glycine or asparaginase reduces AA formation during baking. Since, for potatoes, the limiting substrate is reducing sugars, increases in sugar content in potatoes during storage then introduce some difficulties and potentially quite large variations in the AA content of the final product. Sugars in potatoes may be reduced by blanching. Levels of AA in different foods show large variations and no general upper limit is easily applicable, since some formation will always occur. Current policy is that practical measures should be taken voluntarily to reduce AA formation in vulnerable foods since AA is considered a health risk at the concentrations found in foods. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

  15. Short-term Reservoir Optimization by Stochastic Optimization for Mitigation Downstream Flood Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwanenberg, Dirk; Assis Dos Reis, Alberto; Kuwajima, Julio; Alvarado Montero, Rodolfo; Mainardi Fan, Fernando

    2014-05-01

    An important objective of the operation of multi-purpose reservoirs is the mitigation of flood risks in downstream river reaches. Under the assumptions of reservoirs with finite storage capacities, a key factor for its effective use during flood events is the proper timing of detention measures under consideration of forecast uncertainty. Operational flow forecasting systems support this task by providing deterministic or probabilistic inflow forecasts and decision support components for assessing optimum release strategies. We focus on the decision support component and propose a deterministic optimization and its extension to stochastic optimization procedures based on the non-adaptive Sample Average Approximation (SAA) approach and an adaptive multi-stage stochastic optimization with underlying scenario trees. These techniques are used to compute release trajectories of the reservoirs over a finite forecast horizon of up to 14 days by integrating a nonlinear gradient-based optimization algorithm and a model of the water system. The latter consists of simulation components for pool routing and kinematic or diffusive wave models for the downstream river reaches including a simulation mode and a reverse adjoint mode for the efficient computation of first-order derivatives. The framework has been implemented for a reservoir system operated by the Brazilian Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais S.A. (CEMIG). We present results obtained for the operation of the Três Marias reservoir in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais with a catchment area of near 55,000 km2, an installed capacity of 396 MW and operation restrictions due to downstream flood risk. The focus of our discussion is the impact of sparsely available ground data, forecast uncertainty and its consideration in the optimization procedure. We compare the performance of the above mentioned optimization techniques and conclude the superiority of the stochastic methods.

  16. 30 CFR 250.223 - What mitigation measures information must accompany the EP?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ...measures information must accompany the EP? 250.223 Section 250.223 Mineral...Information Contents of Exploration Plans (ep) § 250.223 What mitigation measures information must accompany the EP? (a) If you propose to use...

  17. Landslide risk mitigation through integrated monitoring and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terranova, Oreste Giuseppe; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Iovine, Giulio G. R.

    2014-05-01

    In winter 2008-09, exceptional prolonged rains triggered numerous landslides in Calabria (southern Italy). Among these, a large rock slide was triggered on 28 January 2009 in weathered metamorphic rocks at San Benedetto Ullano (CS), involving fractured and altered migmatitic gneiss and biotitic schist. A detailed geomorphological survey was carried out during the entire phase of mobilization, allowing to recognize the evolution of the phenomenon. A series of benchmarks was promptly placed in correspondence of fractures on the body and along the sides of the landslide, allowing for frequent measurements of surface movements. In addition, a network of real-time monitoring extensometers were implemented at the surface of the landslide, combined with a meteorological station. The survey site and the data of the monitoring system allowed, from the early stages of activation of the phenomenon, to implement a support system to handle the emergency. In the following months, a clear retrogressive distribution could be identified, coupled with a tendency towards the enlargement of the flanks. In early May, the first crisis ended up. After the arrest of the phenomenon, a geological-technical scheme of the slope could be drawn, also based on data collected through a set of 5 exploratory wells (equipped with 4 inclinometers and 1 piezometer). The landslide mobilized a thickness from 15 to 35 meters along the longitudinal profile. To examine the stability of the slope affected by the landslide, and to quantify the role of fluctuations of the water table in destabilizing the slope, a parametric limit equilibrium analysis was conducted. The analysis confirmed the first interpretation of the process: the first activation of the landslide was expected, in fact, in the central portion of the slope in case, in the same area, the groundwater levels are close to ground level. Between 31 January 31 and 1 February 2010, following a further period of exceptional rainfall, the network of strain gauges promptly evicenced the beginning of a new phase of mobilization of the landslide, accompanied by the opening of cracks along the local and provincial roads. On 10 February, the slope movement led the Civil Protection Authority to issue new evacuation orders and closing the roads. On 11 February, following further rains, a further movement of the landslide body occurred, with severe damage to roads and infrastructure. Overall, this new phase of activation replied the one observed during the crisis started in January 2009, confirming the results of the limit equilibrium analysis. Based on the results of the parametric analysis, the surveillance system could be refined, thanks to a better understanding of the physics of the slope instability. The limit equilibrium analysis was followed by the calibration of a hydrological model, thanks to the availability of dates of activation of the landslide and of rains recorded in the vicinity of the study area. The latest activation of the slope instability took place during the night between 15 and 16 March 2013, again confirming the results of the limit equilibrium analysis and of the hydrological model "SAKe". It should be noted that this activation occurred as a result of rain amounts that are less abundant and prolonged than those of the previous two activations, despite the realization of some engineering works and drainages had been started in the study area to improve slope stability. Further works are still to be made, and a refinement of the stability analyses is in progress to understand the apparent increasing fragility of the considered slope.

  18. EPA (ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY) PROGRAM TO DEMONSTRATE MITIGATION MEASURES FOR INDOOR RADON: INITIAL RESULTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The paper gives initial results of an EPA program to demonstrate mitigation measures for indoor radon. EPA has installed radon mitigation techniques in 18 concrete block basement homes in the Reading Prong area of eastern Pennsylvania, all designed to demonstrate techniques which...

  19. Flood risk and mitigation strategies in the southeastern suburbs of Fez City (Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akdim, Brahim

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The risk of flooding in the south-eastern suburbs of Fez (Morocco was engendered by multiple factors (topographic, hydro-climatic, land use, social, technical. This study focuses on the Aouinate El Hajjaj district and shows that the district’s evolution, characterized by informal transactions (speculation, land squatting, construction without respect of norms and regulations was a major factor in the genesis of flood risk as the district extended into vulnerable sectors. Public efforts to resolve the district’s crisis and reinforce its environmental safety began in 1993 (2 dams and channels were constructed, street were paved and basic facilities were provided, such as drinking water, sanitation and electricity, but the risk factors persist. Technical solutions are locally recognized to be useful, but they are not sufficient. Other mitigating actions including the reduction of physical and socioeconomic vulnerability and the strengthening of the social structure of the community should be considered in a systemic point of view. They constitute elements of an alternative strategy in urban planning and development and must be framed by laws and regulations. Their use could be undertaken at individual, community and State levels depending on the specific dimension of each measure. A vision which integrates local and regional scales is essential in risk studies, in order to design a more sustainable action. The role of non-governmental organisations is important in flood mitigation and urban environmental policy. The incorporation of flood prevention as a parameter of urban planning should be considered by planners and the local population.En los suburbios del sudeste de Fez (Marruecos el riesgo de inundaciones responde a fenómenos de diversa naturaleza física y humana (topográficos, hidrológicos, climáticos, utilización del suelo, factores sociales y técnicos. En este trabajo se analiza la situación del distrito de Aouinate El Hajjaj, en donde diferentes procesos derivados de la ocupación de este espacio (especulación, proliferación de asentamientos informales, edificación sin respeto a las normas y reglamentos… han constituido factores decisivos en la génesis de los riesgos de inundación que actualmente afectan a la zona. Aunque los esfuerzos públicos para resolver la crisis del distrito y reforzar su seguridad frente a las adversidades del medio natural comenzaron en 1993 (construcción de dos presas y de canales, pavimentado de calles, dotación y mejora de los equipamientos básicos como el abastecimiento de agua potable y de electricidad, obras de saneamiento, etc., los factores de riesgo aún persisten. Las soluciones técnicas aplicadas han sido reconocidas por su utilidad, pero es necesario trabajar en otros ámbitos, como la reducción de la vulnerabilidad física, social y ambiental, y en el reforzamiento de la estructura social de la comunidad, lo que permitiría abordar el problema desde un punto de vista sistémico. Todos ellos constituyen los elementos de una estrategia alternativa en la planificación y el desarrollo urbano que deben ser enmarcadas por leyes y reglamentos. Su uso podría llevarse a cabo a nivel individual, comunitario y estatal —en función de la dimensión específica de cada caso—, con el fin de fomentar una estrategia de integración entre las escalas locales y regionales que contribuya a concebir acciones más sostenibles en los estudios de mitigación de los riesgos ambientales. Así mismo, el papel de las organizaciones no gubernamentales es importante en esta cuestión, y la política medioambiental, las acciones de los diferentes agentes que intervienen en el planeamiento urbano y la población local, deben estar sensibilizados y comprometidos con las estrategias para la prevención de inundaciones. [fr] Le risque d’inondation dans les banlieues du Sud-Est de la ville de Fez (Maroc sont produits par des facteurs multiples (topographiques, hydro-climatiques, relatifs aux usages du sol, sociaux, techniques. L’étude vise le district d’A

  20. Soil bio-engineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Petrone

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on authochtonal plants suitable for this kind of works and on economic efficiency is essential for the divulgation of such techniques. The present paper is focused on this two issues related to the realization of various typologies of soil bio-engineering works in the humid tropic of Nicaragua.



    In the area of Río Blanco, located in the Department of Matagalpa, soil bio-engineering installations were built in several sites. The particular structures built were: drainages with live fascine mattress, a live palisade, a vegetated live crib wall for riverbank protection, a vegetative covering made of a metallic net and biotextile coupled with a live palisade made of bamboo. In order to evaluate the suitability of the various plants used in the works, monitorings were performed, one in the live palisade alongside an unpaved road and the other on the live crib wall along a riverbank, collecting survival rate and morphological parameters data. Concerning the economic efficiency we proceed to a financial analysis of the works and once the unit price was obtained, we converted the amount in EPP Dollars (Equal Purchasing Power in order to compare the Nicaraguan context with the Italian one.



    Among the used species we found that Madero negro (Gliricidia sepium and Roble macuelizo (Tabebuia rosea are adequate for soil-bioengineering measure on slopes while Helequeme (Erythrina fusca reported a successful behaviour only in the crib wall for riverbank protection.



    In the comparison of the costs in Nicaragua and in Italy, the unit price reduction for the Central American country ranges between 1.5 times (for the vegetative covering and almost 4 times (for the fascine mattress if it's used the EPP dollar exchange rate.



    Conclusions are reached with regard to hydrological-risk mitigating actions performed on a basin scale and through naturalistic (live interventions: not only are they socially and technically attainable, even in hardship areas (by maximizing the contribution of the local labor force and minimizing the use of mechanical equipment, but they are also economically sustainable.

  1. Soil bioengineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Petrone

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on the autochthonal plants suitable for these kinds of interventions and on the economic efficiency of the interventions is essential for the dissemination of such techniques. The present paper is focused on these two issues as related to the realization of various typologies of soil bioengineering works in the humid tropics of Nicaragua.

    In the area of Río Blanco, located in the Department of Matagalpa, soil bioengineering installations were built in several sites. The particular structures built were: drainages with live fascine mattress, a live palisade, a vegetated live crib wall for riverbank protection, a vegetative covering made of a metallic net and biotextile coupled with a live palisade made of bamboo. In order to evaluate the suitability of the various plants used in these works, monitoring was performed, one on the live palisade alongside an unpaved road and the other on the live crib wall along a riverbank, by collecting data on survival rate and morphological parameters. Concerning economic efficiency, we proceeded to a financial analysis of the works. Once the unit price was obtained, we converted the amount into EPP Dollars (Equal Purchasing Power in order to compare the Nicaraguan context with the European one.

    Among the species used we found that Gliricidia sepium (local common name: Madero negro and Tabebuia rosea (local common name: Roble macuelizo are adequate for soil bioengineering measures on slopes, while Erythrina fusca (local common name: Helequeme resulted in successful behaviour only in the crib wall for riverbank protection.

    In comparing costs in Nicaragua and in Italy, the unit price reduction for Nicaragua ranges from 1.5 times (for the vegetative covering to almost 4 times (for the fascine mattress, using the EPP dollar exchange rate.

    Our conclusions with regard to hydrological-risk mitigating actions performed on a basin scale and through naturalistic (live interventions are that they are not only socially and technically possible, even in hardship areas (by maximizing the contribution of the local labour force and minimizing the use of mechanical equipment, but also economically sustainable.

  2. PROPUESTA METODOLÓGICA PARA PRIORIZAR ÁREAS CON AMENAZA POR CAÍDA DE ROCAS EN ENTORNOS URBANOS, COMO BASE PARA EL REORDENAMIENTO URBANO Y LA MITIGACIÓN DEL RIESGO / METHODOLOGICAL SUGGESTION FOR PRIORITY ROCK FALL HAZARD URBAN AREAS, FOR THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES INTEGRATED SET OF URBAN REORGANIZATION MEASURES AIMED AT THE MITIGATION OF THE ROCK FALL RELATED RISK.

    Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

    ALBEIRO DE JESÚS, RENDÓN RIVERA; RUBEN DARIO, VARGAS FRANCO; ALBERTO, ARIAS LÓPEZ.

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Este artículo describe una metodología cualitativa, para evaluar un índice de riesgo físico por caída de rocas a escala detallada (1:1000). Se realiza una cartografía detallada de las áreas de salida de bloques, depósitos de talud y geomorfología. Los depósitos de talud son indicadores de la frecuen [...] cia y distribución espacial del fenómeno de caída de rocas y su relación con las áreas fuente, donde se hizo una detallada clasificación de los bloques potencialmente inestables. El resultado final es la definición de los "corredores de tránsito" y su correspondiente clasificación en las categorías bajo, medio o alto índice de amenaza. Abstract in english This paper describes a qualitative methodology for the assessment of rock fall physical risk index at large-scale (1:1000). Through a detailed geologic and geomorphological survey both rock fall deposits and rock fall sources are identified and mapped. Analysis of the rock fall deposits give indicat [...] ions over the temporal frequency and spatial distribution of the phenomenon and point out the most active areas. Rock fall sources are meticulously studied and individual rock blocks are classified based on its potential instability. The final product is a definition of the rock's “transit corridors” and their corresponding classification, concerning the rock fall hazard index, using the heuristically defined categories of low, moderate and high hazard. Hazard index is estimated as lineal function of main variables, whose values (numeric indexes) are ground together in three categories: high, moderate, and low. Physical vulnerability index to each “transit corridor” is assessed based on the number of people and dwellings. Finally, physical risk index to every “transit corridor” is obtained crossing hazard index and vulnerability index data. The risk assessment results allowed the local authorities to carry out an integrated set of urban reorganization measures aimed at the mitigation of the rock fall related risk.

  3. Experimental study designs to improve the evaluation of road mitigation measures for wildlife.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rytwinski, Trina; van der Ree, Rodney; Cunnington, Glenn M; Fahrig, Lenore; Findlay, C Scott; Houlahan, Jeff; Jaeger, Jochen A G; Soanes, Kylie; van der Grift, Edgar A

    2015-05-01

    An experimental approach to road mitigation that maximizes inferential power is essential to ensure that mitigation is both ecologically-effective and cost-effective. Here, we set out the need for and standards of using an experimental approach to road mitigation, in order to improve knowledge of the influence of mitigation measures on wildlife populations. We point out two key areas that need to be considered when conducting mitigation experiments. First, researchers need to get involved at the earliest stage of the road or mitigation project to ensure the necessary planning and funds are available for conducting a high quality experiment. Second, experimentation will generate new knowledge about the parameters that influence mitigation effectiveness, which ultimately allows better prediction for future road mitigation projects. We identify seven key questions about mitigation structures (i.e., wildlife crossing structures and fencing) that remain largely or entirely unanswered at the population-level: (1) Does a given crossing structure work? What type and size of crossing structures should we use? (2) How many crossing structures should we build? (3) Is it more effective to install a small number of large-sized crossing structures or a large number of small-sized crossing structures? (4) How much barrier fencing is needed for a given length of road? (5) Do we need funnel fencing to lead animals to crossing structures, and how long does such fencing have to be? (6) How should we manage/manipulate the environment in the area around the crossing structures and fencing? (7) Where should we place crossing structures and barrier fencing? We provide experimental approaches to answering each of them using example Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) study designs for two stages in the road/mitigation project where researchers may become involved: (1) at the beginning of a road/mitigation project, and (2) after the mitigation has been constructed; highlighting real case studies when available. PMID:25704749

  4. Managing soil natural capital: An effective strategy for mitigating future agricultural risks?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cong, Ronggang; Hedlund, Katarina

    2014-01-01

    Uncontrollable events such as adverse weather and volatile prices present considerable risks for arable farmers. Soil natural capital, which views the capacity of soil biodiversity to generate ecosystem services as a component of farm capital, could be important for the stability and resilience of arable production systems. We investigate therefore whether managing soil natural capital could be an effective strategy for mitigating future agricultural risks. We do this by constructing a dynamic stochastic portfolio model to optimize the stock of soil organic carbon (SOC)—our indicator of soil natural capital—when considering both the risks and returns from farming. SOC is controlled via the spatial and temporal allocation of cash crops and an illustrative replenishing land use. We find that higher soil natural capital buffers yield variance against adverse weather and reduces reliance on external inputs. Managing soil natural capital has therefore the potential to mitigate two serious agricultural risks: energy price shocks and adverse weather events, both of which are likely to be exacerbated in the future due to, e.g., globalization and climate change.

  5. Assuring safety of inherently unsafe medications: the FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Lewis S; Loh, Meredith; Perrone, Jeanmarie

    2014-06-01

    The decision to approve a drug for clinical use is based on an understanding of its benefits versus the risks. Although efficacy is generally understood at the time of submission to the FDA for approval, the risks are more difficult to assess. Both PubMed (from 2000 to 2012) and the FDA website (www.fda.gov) were searched using the search terms "risk evaluation and mitigation strategy" (REMS). Articles for review were selected by relevance to topic, and their references were searched as well for additional relevant resources. Since the search results were not expected to contain research studies, formal quality assessment and inclusion and exclusion criteria were not utilized resulting in a narrative review. Few directly relevant research studies exist, although supporting documents such as government reports were available. For effective drugs with unclear or concerning safety records, the FDA has the option of requiring a risk evaluation and mitigation strategy, which allows a systematic approach to track and assure safe medication use. Over 100 different medications are currently covered by REMS, and each REMS is developed individually based on the needs of the specific drug or class. Although likely associated with improvements in medication safety, the potential benefit, limitations, and consequences of REMS are not yet fully understood. PMID:24414251

  6. Assessing and mitigating risks of engineering programs with lean management techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fritz, A.; Oehmen, Josef

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates the use of lean management techniques as a risk mitigation approach for large-scale engineering programs. The key research questions are how lean best practices with the highest risk mitigation potential are identified, how the most relevant lean best practices for a specific program are identified and how the effort for implementation of these lean best practices is estimated. Large-scale engineering programs have as results usually complex technical products or systems such as airplanes, satellites (GPS) or software programs, immense infrastructure efforts like the construction of a new airport, highway or bridge, or combine elements of both technology and infrastructure. The benefits they deliver are therefore immense and sometimes even groundbreaking, defining new levels of capabilities. But their sheer size and the built-in complexity also manifest themselves in higher risks, which can lead to significant cost-overruns and large delays in schedule [Oehmen et al. 2012, Cantarelli et al. 2010, Flyvbjerg et al. 2003, GAO 2006]. Program success depends on four dimensions: delivery capability, organizational capability, marketing capability and innovative capability [Shao and Müller 2011, Shao et al. 2012]. To incorporate these capabilities and to manage the obviously difficult entity of a program, a variety of standards and guidance books have been published. The two most prominent ones are Managing Successful Programs (MSP) and The Standard for Program Management by the Project Management Institute (PMI), that both include Risk Management as a focal activity [MSP 2011, PMI 2013].

  7. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategy programs in solid organ transplantation: the promises of information technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsapepas, Demetra S; McKeen, Jaclyn T; Martin, Spencer T; Walker-McDermott, Jennifer K; Yang, Alex; Hirsch, Jamie; Mohan, Sumit; Tiwari, Ruchi

    2014-10-01

    Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) required by the Food and Drug Administration are implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with medications and to ensure ongoing safe use throughout the life of a pharmaceutical agent. Healthcare organizations have begun to adopt information technologies with clinical decision support (CDS) to ensure safe use of medications. Systems have been expanded and customized to also ensure compliance with regulatory standards. End users who are unfamiliar with particular medication use provisions are at risk of unknowingly inappropriately fulfilling specific components. Institution-specific customization of vendor-provided CDS is useful to enhance provider awareness and ensure compliance with standards. Integration of health information technology systems to fulfill REMS requirements is novel and important to ensure consistency as healthcare standards evolve. PMID:24573422

  8. Comparing downside risk measures for heavy tailed

    OpenAIRE

    Danielsson, J.; Jorgensen, B. N.; Sarma, M.; Vries, C. G.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper we study some prominent downside risk measures for heavy tailed distribution. Using the notion of regular variation to define heavy tailed distributions we provide approximations of the risk measures in the tail region. We show that the downside risk measures produce similar and consistent ranking of risk. However, Expected Shortfall may not always distinguish between the differing risk levels of assets.

  9. Observational Studies of Earthquake Preparation and Generation to Mitigate Seismic Risks in Mines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durrheim, R. J.; Ogasawara, H.; Nakatani, M.; Milev, A.; Cichowicz, A.; Kawakata, H.; Yabe, Y.; Murakami, O.; Naoi, M. M.; Moriya, H.; Satoh, T.

    2011-12-01

    We provide a status report on a 5-year project to monitor in-situ fault instability and strong motion in South African gold mines. The project has two main aims: (1) To learn more about earthquake preparation and generation mechanisms by deploying dense arrays of high-sensitivity sensors within rock volumes where mining is likely to induce significant seismic activity. (2) To upgrade the South African national surface seismic network in the mining districts. This knowledge will contribute to efforts to upgrade schemes of seismic hazard assessment and to limit and mitigate the seismic risks in deep mines. As of 31 July 2011, 46 boreholes totalling 1.9 km in length had been drilled at project sites at Ezulwini, Moab-Khotsong and Driefontein gold mines. Several dozen more holes are still to be drilled. Acoustic emission sensors, strain- and tiltmeters, and controlled seismic sources are being installed to monitor the deformation of the rock mass, the accumulation of damage during the preparation phase, and changes in dynamic stress as the rupture front propagates. These data will be integrated with measurements of stope closure, stope strong motion, seismic data recorded by the mine-wide network, and stress modelling. Preliminary results will be reported at AGU meeting. The project is endorsed by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST), Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and the South African government. It is funded by the JST-JICA program for Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable development (SATREPS, the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), the Council for Geoscience, the University of the Witwatersrand and the Department of Science and Technology. The contributions of Seismogen CC, OHMS Ltd, AnglogoldAshanti Rock Engineering Applied Research Group, First Uranium, the Gold Fields Seismic Department and the Institute of Mine Seismology are gratefully acknowledged.

  10. Reactions to children's transgressions in at-risk caregivers: does mitigating information, type of transgression, or caregiver directive matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, Lauren M; Skowronski, John J; Crouch, Julie L; Milner, Joel S; Zengel, Bettina

    2014-05-01

    This study examined whether caregivers who exhibit high risk for child physical abuse differ from low-risk caregivers in reactions to transgressing children. Caregivers read vignettes describing child transgressions. These vignettes varied in: (a) the type of transgression described (moral, conventional, personal), (b) presentation of transgression-mitigating information (present, absent), and (c) whether a directive to avoid the transgression was in the vignette (yes, no). After reading each vignette, caregivers provided ratings reflecting their: (a) perceptions of transgression wrongness, (b) internal attributions about the transgressing child, (c) perceptions of the transgressing child's hostile intent, (d) own expected negative post-transgression affect, and (e) perceived likelihood of responding to the transgression with discipline that displayed power assertion and/or induction. For moral transgressions (cruelty, dishonesty, hostility, or greed), mitigating information reduced caregiver expectations that they would feel negative affect and, subsequent to the transgression, use disciplinary strategies that display power assertion. These mitigating effects were smaller among at-risk caregivers than among low-risk caregivers. Moreover, when transgressions disobeyed a directive, among low-risk caregivers, mitigating information reduced the expectation that responses to transgressions would include inductive disciplinary strategies, but it did not do so among at-risk caregivers. In certain circumstances, compared to low-risk caregivers, at-risk caregivers expect to be relatively unaffected by transgression-mitigating information. These results suggest that interventions that increase an at-risk caregiver's ability to properly assess and integrate mitigating information may play a role in reducing the caregiver's risk of child physical abuse. PMID:24075063

  11. Maneuver Planning for Conjunction Risk Mitigation with Ground-track Control Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinley, David

    2008-01-01

    The planning of conjunction Risk Mitigation Maneuvers (RMM) in the presence of ground-track control requirements is analyzed. Past RMM planning efforts on the Aqua, Aura, and Terra spacecraft have demonstrated that only small maneuvers are available when ground-track control requirements are maintained. Assuming small maneuvers, analytical expressions for the effect of a given maneuver on conjunction geometry are derived. The analytical expressions are used to generate a large trade space for initial RMM design. This trade space represents a significant improvement in initial maneuver planning over existing methods that employ high fidelity maneuver models and propagation.

  12. Risk mitigation of shared electronic records system in campus institutions: medical social work practice in singapore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ow Yong, Lai Meng; Tan, Amanda Wei Li; Loo, Cecilia Lay Keng; Lim, Esther Li Ping

    2014-10-01

    In 2013, the Singapore General Hospital (SGH) Campus initiated a shared electronic system where patient records and documentations were standardized and shared across institutions within the Campus. The project was initiated to enhance quality of health care, improve accessibility, and ensure integrated (as opposed to fragmented) care for best outcomes in our patients. In mitigating the risks of ICT, it was found that familiarity with guiding ethical principles, and ensuring adherence to regulatory and technical competencies in medical social work were important. The need to negotiate and maneuver in a large environment within the Campus to ensure proactive integrative process helped. PMID:25321932

  13. 75 FR 34453 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies; Notice of Public Meeting; Reopening of Comment Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-17

    ...Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS), REMS Assessments...Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS), REMS Assessments...Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS), REMS Assessments...that there is no additional compensation for pharmacists...

  14. Radiological terrorism: Countermeasures and measures for mitigation of consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radioactive sources can be used in devices aimed at radiological terrorism. The paper briefly discusses the types and quantities of sources that may be suitable for such a purpose. A summary of equipment containing significant radioactive sources manufactured in the former Soviet Union is presented. The paper also describes the structure, functions and future directions of activities of organizations in the Russian Federation responsible for nuclear safety and security, including the control and accounting of radioactive materials and the system to prevent, respond to and mitigate the consequences of nuclear emergency situations. (author)

  15. Risk Mitigation for the Development of the New Ariane 5 On-Board Computer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stransky, A.; Dubuc, F.; Conde-Reis, A.; Ledoux, A.; Miramont, P.; Johansson, L.

    2010-08-01

    In the frame of the Ariane 5 production, some equipment will become obsolete and need to be redesigned and redeveloped. This is the case for the On-Board Computer, which has to be completely redesigned and re-qualified by RUAG Space, as well as all its on-board software and associated development tools by ASTRIUM ST. This paper presents this obsolescence treatment, which has started in 2007 under an ESA contract, in the frame of ACEP and ARTA accompaniment programmes, and is very critical in technical term but also from schedule point of view: it gives the context and overall development plan, and details the risk mitigation actions agreed with ESA, especially those related to the development of the input/output ASIC, and also the on-board software porting and revalidation strategy. The efficiency of these risk mitigation actions has been proven by the outcome schedule; this development constitutes an up-to-date case for good practices, including some experience report and feedback for future other developments.

  16. Disease risk mitigation: the equivalence of two selective mixing strategies on aggregate contact patterns and resulting epidemic spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Benjamin R; Perrings, Charles; Levin, Simon; Kinzig, Ann

    2014-12-21

    The personal choices affecting the transmission of infectious diseases include the number of contacts an individual makes, and the risk-characteristics of those contacts. We consider whether these different choices have distinct implications for the course of an epidemic. We also consider whether choosing contact mitigation (how much to mix) and affinity mitigation (with whom to mix) strategies together has different epidemiological effects than choosing each separately. We use a set of differential equation compartmental models of the spread of disease, coupled with a model of selective mixing. We assess the consequences of varying contact or affinity mitigation as a response to disease risk. We do this by comparing disease incidence and dynamics under varying contact volume, contact type, and both combined across several different disease models. Specifically, we construct a change of variables that allows one to transition from contact mitigation to affinity mitigation, and vice versa. In the absence of asymptomatic infection we find no difference in the epidemiological impacts of the two forms of disease risk mitigation. Furthermore, since models that include both mitigation strategies are underdetermined, varying both results in no outcome that could not be reached by choosing either separately. Which strategy is actually chosen then depends not on their epidemiological consequences, but on the relative cost of reducing contact volume versus altering contact type. Although there is no fundamental epidemiological difference between the two forms of mitigation, the social cost of alternative strategies can be very different. From a social perspective, therefore, whether one strategy should be promoted over another depends on economic not epidemiological factors. PMID:25150459

  17. Predictability and extended-range prognosis in natural hazard risk mitigation process: A case study over west Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsangouras, Ioannis T.; Nastos, Panagiotis T.

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazards pose an increasing threat to society and new innovative techniques or methodologies are necessary to be developed, in order to enhance the risk mitigation process in nowadays. It is commonly accepted that disaster risk reduction is a vital key for future successful economic and social development. The systematic improvement accuracy of extended-range prognosis products, relating with monthly and seasonal predictability, introduced them as a new essential link in risk mitigation procedure. Aiming at decreasing the risk, this paper presents the use of seasonal and monthly forecasting process that was tested over west Greece from September to December, 2013. During that season significant severe weather events occurred, causing significant impact to the local society (severe storms/rainfalls, hail, flash floods, etc). Seasonal and monthly forecasting products from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) depicted, with probabilities stratified by terciles, areas of Greece where significant weather may occur. As atmospheric natural hazard early warning systems are able to deliver warnings up to 72 hours in advance, this study illustrates that extended-range prognosis could be introduced as a new technique in risk mitigation. Seasonal and monthly forecast products could highlight extended areas where severe weather events may occur in one month lead time. In addition, a risk mitigation procedure, that extended prognosis products are adopted, is also presented providing useful time to preparedness process at regional administration level.

  18. CO? mitigation measures of power sector and its integrated optimization in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Pan; Chen, Guang; Zhou, Hao; Su, Meirong; Bao, Haixia

    2012-01-01

    Power sector is responsible for about 40% of the total CO? emissions in the world and plays a leading role in climate change mitigation. In this study, measures that lower CO? emissions from the supply side, demand side, and power grid are discussed, based on which, an integrated optimization model of CO? mitigation (IOCM) is proposed. Virtual energy, referring to energy saving capacity in both demand side and the power grid, together with conventional energy in supply side, is unified planning for IOCM. Consequently, the optimal plan of energy distribution, considering both economic benefits and mitigation benefits, is figured out through the application of IOCM. The results indicate that development of demand side management (DSM) and smart grid can make great contributions to CO? mitigation of power sector in China by reducing the CO? emissions by 10.02% and 12.59%, respectively, in 2015, and in 2020. PMID:23213305

  19. Spatial energy market risk analysis using the semivariance risk measure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper concentrates on the analysis of semivariance (SV) as a market risk measure for market risk analysis of mean-semivariance (MSV) portfolios. The advantage of MSV over variance as a risk measure is that MSV provides a more logical measure of risk than the MV method. In addition, the relationship of the SV with the lower partial movements is discussed. A spatial risk model is proposed as a basis of risk assessment for short-term energy markets. Transaction costs and other practical constraints are also included. A case study is provided to show the successful application of the model. (author)

  20. Spectral risk measures and portfolio selection

    OpenAIRE

    Adam, Alexandre; Houkari, Mohamed; Laurent, Jean-paul

    2007-01-01

    This paper deals with risk measurement and portfolio optimization under risk constraints. Firstly we give an overview of risk assessment from the viewpoint of risk theory, focusing on moment-based, distortion and spectral risk measures. We subsequently apply these ideas to an asset management framework using a database of hedge funds returns chosen for their non- Gaussian features. We deal with the problem of portfolio optimization under risk constraints and lead a comparative analysis of eff...

  1. The VUELCO project consortium: new interdisciplinary research for improved risk mitigation and management during volcanic unrest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottsmann, J.

    2012-04-01

    Volcanic unrest is a complex multi-hazard phenomenon of volcanism. The fact that unrest may, but not necessarily must lead to an imminent eruption contributes significant uncertainty to short-term hazard assessment of volcanic activity world-wide. Although it is reasonable to assume that all eruptions are associated with precursory activity of some sort, the knowledge of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting unrest signals and imminent eruption is, today, inadequate to deal effectively with crises of volcanic unrest. This results predominantly from the uncertainties in identifying the causative processes of unrest and as a consequence in forecasting its short-term evolution. However, key for effective risk mitigation and management during unrest is the early and reliable identification of changes in the subsurface dynamics of a volcano and their assessment as precursors to an impending eruption. The VUELCO project consortium has come together for a multi-disciplinary attack on the origin, nature and significance of volcanic unrest from the scientific contributions generated by collaboration of ten partners in Europe and Latin America. Dissecting the science of monitoring data from unrest periods at six type volcanoes in Italy, Spain, the West Indies, Mexico and Ecuador the consortium will create global strategies for 1) enhanced monitoring capacity and value, 2) mechanistic data interpretation and 3) identification of reliable eruption precursors; all from the geophysical, geochemical and geodetic fingerprints of unrest episodes. Experiments will establish a mechanistic understanding of subsurface processes capable of inducing unrest and aid in identifying key volcano monitoring parameters indicative of the nature of unrest processes. Numerical models will help establish a link between the processes and volcano monitoring data to inform on the causes of unrest and its short-term evolution. Using uncertainty assessment and new short-term probabilistic hazard forecasting tools the scientific knowledge base will provide the crucial parameters for a comprehensive and best-practice approach to 1) risk mitigation, 2) communication, 3) decision-making and 4) crisis management during unrest periods. The VUELCO project consortium efforts will generate guidance in the definition and implementation of strategic options for effective risk mitigation, management and governance during unrest episodes. Such a mechanistic platform of understanding, impacting on the synergy of scientists, policy-makers, civil protection authorities, decision-makers, and the public, will place volcanic unrest management on a new basis, with European expertise at its peak. The project is financed by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development, Area "Environment".

  2. Measuring, Reporting and Verifying Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions. Reflecting experiences under the Mitigation Momentum Project. Discussion paper

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Vit, C.; Roeser, F.; Fekete, H.; Hoehne, N.; Wartmann, S.; Van Tilburg, X.; Larkin, J.; Escalante, D.; Haensel, G.; Veum, K.; Cameron, L.; Halcomb, J.

    2013-06-15

    The Mitigation Momentum project aims to support the development of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs). It contributes to the concrete design of NAMA proposals in five countries (Peru, Chile, Indonesia, Tunisia and Kenya). A further aim is to foster cooperation and knowledge exchange within the NAMA community while advancing the international climate policy debate on mitigation and related issues, including approaches for the Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) of NAMAs. MRV enables the assessment of the effectiveness of both internationally supported NAMAs (supported NAMAs) and domestically supported NAMAs (unilateral NAMAs) by tracking NAMA impacts including greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions and non-GHG related impacts such as sustainable development benefits. MRV also supports improved policy design and decision making through systematic progress reporting and is a key tool to ensure accountability of NAMA stakeholders. Both host countries and funders share the common interest of having strong, implementable MRV systems in place. From both perspectives, this raises a number of questions, as well as potential challenges, on how to adapt the MRV approach to the specific circumstances of each NAMA. The objective of this paper is to identify open issues for the MRV of impacts of NAMAs, understood here as implementable actions, i.e. a project, a policy, a programme or a strategy. It pays particular attention to NAMAs with a supported component and reflects relevant initial experiences with developing NAMA proposals in the five Mitigation Momentum countries (i.e. using country examples where appropriate). As MRV systems for these NAMAs are still under development or at their preliminary stage, we hope to share further lessons learned in a subsequent discussion paper. Key challenges analysed in this paper include: How to design a MRV system that satisfies both the host country's and funder's expectations while complying with United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reporting requirements? How to draw the line between the MRV approach for unilateral components and the MRV approach for supported components given that many NAMAs are likely to have both unilateral as well as supported components? How to design a pragmatic, implementable MRV system, which is also robust? What does robustness mean in the context of the MRV of NAMAs? Current NAMA experiences show that responding to these challenges requires taking into account the variety of NAMAs, as illustrated by those submitted to the UNFCCC (including economy-wide GHG reduction goals, sectoral strategies, mitigation policies, individual projects, etc.), and countries' capacities. Although this paper does not aim to provide practical guidance, it will highlight areas where common guidance would be valuable to deal with such challenges. It will also point out areas where such guidance is limited de facto and where pragmatic approaches i.e. seeking a balance between robustness, feasibility and cost-effectiveness, may prove valuable to design feasible yet still robust MRV systems. Although this paper does not answer all questions it raises, it aims to offer innovative ways to respond to open issues, including through learning from country experiences. After a short introduction to basic MRV concepts and to the current status of discussions and experiences on MRV (Chapter 2), the paper is organised around key dimensions of MRV as recognised by MRV literature and UNFCCC texts: transparency (Chapter 3), robustness (Chapter 4), and feasibility and cost-effectiveness (Chapter 5). Challenges pertaining to these MRV dimensions are further explored in each chapter.

  3. Effect of Wind Intermittency on the Electric Grid: Mitigating the Risk of Energy Deficits

    CERN Document Server

    George, Sam O; Nguyen, Scott V

    2010-01-01

    Successful implementation of California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) mandating 33 percent renewable energy generation by 2020 requires inclusion of a robust strategy to mitigate increased risk of energy deficits (blackouts) due to short time-scale (sub 1 hour) intermittencies in renewable energy sources. Of these RPS sources, wind energy has the fastest growth rate--over 25% year-over-year. If these growth trends continue, wind energy could make up 15 percent of California's energy portfolio by 2016 (wRPS15). However, the hour-to-hour variations in wind energy (speed) will create large hourly energy deficits that require installation of other, more predictable, compensation generation capacity and infrastructure. Compensating for the energy deficits of wRPS15 could potentially cost tens of billions in additional dollar-expenditure for fossil and / or nuclear generation capacity. There is a real possibility that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions will miss the California ...

  4. The Sensor Test for Orion RelNav Risk Mitigation Development Test Objective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christian, John A.; Hinkel, Heather; Maguire, Sean

    2011-01-01

    The Sensor Test for Orion Relative-Navigation Risk Mitigation (STORRM) Development Test Objective (DTO) ew aboard the Space Shuttle Endeavour on STS-134, and was designed to characterize the performance of the ash LIDAR being developed for the Orion. This ash LIDAR, called the Vision Navigation Sensor (VNS), will be the primary navigation instrument used by the Orion vehicle during rendezvous, proximity operations, and docking. This paper provides an overview of the STORRM test objectives and the concept of operations. It continues with a description of the STORRM's major hardware compo nents, which include the VNS and the docking camera. Next, an overview of crew and analyst training activities will describe how the STORRM team prepared for flight. Then an overview of how insight data collection and analysis actually went is presented. Key ndings and results from this project are summarized, including a description of "truth" data. Finally, the paper concludes with lessons learned from the STORRM DTO.

  5. The influence of hazard models on GIS-based regional risk assessments and mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernknopf, R.L.; Rabinovici, S.J.M.; Wood, N.J.; Dinitz, L.B.

    2006-01-01

    Geographic information systems (GIS) are important tools for understanding and communicating the spatial distribution of risks associated with natural hazards in regional economies. We present a GIS-based decision support system (DSS) for assessing community vulnerability to natural hazards and evaluating potential mitigation policy outcomes. The Land Use Portfolio Modeler (LUPM) integrates earth science and socioeconomic information to predict the economic impacts of loss-reduction strategies. However, the potential use of such systems in decision making may be limited when multiple but conflicting interpretations of the hazard are available. To explore this problem, we conduct a policy comparison using the LUPM to test the sensitivity of three available assessments of earthquake-induced lateral-spread ground failure susceptibility in a coastal California community. We find that the uncertainty regarding the interpretation of the science inputs can influence the development and implementation of natural hazard management policies. Copyright ?? 2006 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

  6. Recommended Mitigation Measures for an Influenza Pandemic in Remote and Isolated First Nations Communities of Ontario, Canada: A Community-Based Participatory Research Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia A. Charania

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Influenza pandemics disproportionately impact remote and/or isolated Indigenous communities worldwide. The differential risk experienced by such communities warrants the recommendation of specific mitigation measures. Interviewer-administered questionnaires were conducted with adult key health care informants from three remote and isolated Canadian First Nations communities of sub-Arctic Ontario. Forty-eight mitigation measures (including the setting, pandemic period, trigger, and duration were questioned. Participants’ responses were summarized and collected data were deductively and inductively coded. The participants recommended 41 of the questioned mitigation measures, and often differed from previous literature and national recommendations. Results revealed that barriers, such as overcrowded housing, limited supplies, and health care infrastructure, impacted the feasibility of implementing mitigation measures. These findings suggest that pandemic plans should recommend control strategies for remote and isolated Canadian First Nations communities that may not be supported in other communities. These findings highlight the importance of engaging locally impacted populations using participatory approaches in policy decision-making processes. Other countries with remote and/or isolated Indigenous communities are encouraged to include recommendations for mitigation measures that specifically address the unique needs of such communities in an effort to improve their health outcomes during the next influenza pandemic.

  7. Stochastic optimized life cycle models for risk mitigation in power system applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This ork shows the relevance of stochastic optimization in complex power system applications. It was proven that usual deterministic mean value models not only predict inaccurate results but are also most often on the risky side. The change in the market effects all kind of evaluation processes (e.g. fuel type and technology but especially financial engineering evaluations) in the endeavor of a strict risk mitigation comparison. But not only IPPs also traditional Utilities dash for risk/return optimized investment opportunities. In this study I developed a 2-phase model which can support a decision-maker in finding optimal solutions on investment and profitability. It has to be stated, that in this study no objective function will be optimized in an algorithmically way. On the one hand focus is laid on finding optimal solutions out of different choices (highest return at lowest possible risk); on the other hand the endeavor was to provide a decision makers with a better assessment of the likelihood of outcomes on investment considerations. The first (deterministic) phase computes in a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) approach (Life cycle Calculation; DCF method). Most of the causal relations (day of operation, escalation of personal expanses, inflation, depreciation period, etc.) are defined within this phase. The second (stochastic) phase is a total new way in optimizing risk/return relations. With the some decision theory mathematics an expected value of stochastic solmatics an expected value of stochastic solutions can be calculated. Furthermore probability function have to be defined out of historical data. The model not only supports profitability analysis (including regress and sensitivity analysis) but also supports a decision-maker in a decision process. Emphasis was laid on risk-return analysis, which can give the decision-maker first hand informations of the type of risk return problem (risk concave, averse or linear). Five important parameters were chosen which have the characteristics of typical prospective unpredictability. Other parameters which are not typical totally uncertain in the future are handled within the deterministic live cycle model (parameters such as escalation of insurance costs, personal costs, etc.). One major result in comparing the deterministic with a stochastic calculation was that without changing a mean value parameter the result of stochastic calculation can vary from the deterministic calculation tremendously. In this study I proved that such tools for risk/return analysis could provide helpful informations to a decision-maker. The only major prerequisite for a good solution is that the user has reliable statistical empirical data available and that he spends in fitting the distribution curves to these. (author)

  8. Geologic carbon sequestration as a global strategy to mitigate CO2 emissions: Sustainability and environmental risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oldenburg, C.M.

    2011-04-01

    Fossil fuels are abundant, inexpensive to produce, and are easily converted to usable energy by combustion as demonstrated by mankind's dependence on fossil fuels for over 80% of its primary energy supply (13). This reliance on fossil fuels comes with the cost of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions that exceed the rate at which CO{sub 2} can be absorbed by terrestrial and oceanic systems worldwide resulting in increases in atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration as recorded by direct measurements over more than five decades (14). Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas linked to global warming and associated climate change, the impacts of which are currently being observed around the world, and projections of which include alarming consequences such as water and food shortages, sea level rise, and social disruptions associated with resource scarcity (15). The current situation of a world that derives the bulk of its energy from fossil fuel in a manner that directly causes climate change equates to an energy-climate crisis. Although governments around the world have only recently begun to consider policies to avoid the direst projections of climate change and its impacts, sustainable approaches to addressing the crisis are available. The common thread of feasible strategies to the energy climate crisis is the simultaneous use of multiple approaches based on available technologies (e.g., 16). Efficiency improvements (e.g., in building energy use), increased use of natural gas relative to coal, and increased development of renewables such as solar, wind, and geothermal, along with nuclear energy, are all available options that will reduce net CO{sub 2} emissions. While improvements in efficiency can be made rapidly and will pay for themselves, the slower pace of change and greater monetary costs associated with increased use of renewables and nuclear energy suggests an additional approach is needed to help bridge the time period between the present and a future when low-carbon energy is considered cheap enough to replace fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is one such bridging technology (1). CCS has been the focus of an increasing amount of research over the last 15-20 years and is the subject of a comprehensive IPCC report that thoroughly covers the subject (1). CCS is currently being carried out in several countries around the world in conjunction with natural gas extraction (e.g., 2, 3) and enhanced oil recovery (17). Despite this progress, widespread deployment of CCS remains the subject of research and future plans rather than present action on the scale needed to mitigate emissions from the perspective of climate change. The reasons for delay in deploying CCS more widely are concerns about cost (18), regulatory and legal uncertainty (19), and potential environmental impacts (21). This chapter discusses the long-term (decadal) sustainability and environmental hazards associated with the geologic CO{sub 2} storage (GCS) component of large-scale CCS (e.g., 20). Discussion here barely touches on capture and transport of CO{sub 2} which will occur above ground and which are similar to existing engineering, chemical processing, and pipeline transport activities and are therefore easier to evaluate with respect to risk assessment and feasibility. The focus of this chapter is on the more uncertain part of CCS, namely geologic storage. The primary concern for sustainability of GCS is whether there is sufficient capacity in sedimentary basins worldwide to contain the large of amounts of CO{sub 2} needed to address climate change. But there is also a link between sustainability and environmental impacts. Specifically, if GCS is found to cause unacceptable impacts that are considered worse than its climate-change mitigation benefits, the approach will not be widely adopted. Hence, GCS has elements of sustainability insofar as capacity of the subsurface for CO{sub 2} is concerned, and also in terms of whether the associated environmental risks are acceptable or not to the public.

  9. Implications of Climate Change Impacts on Regional Maize Production in the United States: Risk Mitigation Strategies and Food Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang Li

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Analyzing the impacts of climate change on regional maize production in the North Central and the South regions of the United States and proposing risk mitigation strategies have significant implications in the context of national and global food security. Unlike most estimation, we use an interdisciplinary approach and combine climatic variables along with economic inputs and technological improvement in the adapted Cobb-Douglas production function model. The production function is simulated through 2030 under a variety of climate change scenarios, and the results indicate that under the climate change South region tends to have opposite impacts relative to the North Central, the major maize production region in the United States. The results imply that one region’s losses can be partially offset by the other region’s gains. The different responses imply that the South region could provide potential risk mitigation to climate change within the United States and could help the nation and the world maintain maize supply stability. The results gained from this research could be used as cost-efficient climate change risk mitigation strategies for other agricultural commodities in other countries. They can also be used for public policies and advanced risk mitigation and diversification programs, and are expected to contribute to the sustainability of agriculture and the stability of international crop market price in the United States and the world.

  10. Feasibility study on earthquake early warning and operational earthquake forecasting for risk mitigation at nuclear power plants

    OpenAIRE

    Cauzzi, Carlo; Behr, Yannik; Clinton, John Francis; Le Guenan, Thomas; Douglas, John; Auclair, Samuel; Wiemer, Stefan; Wo?ssner, Jochen; Caprio, Marta; Cua, Georgia

    2015-01-01

    Within the framework of the EC-funded project REAKT (Strategies and Tools for Real Time Earthquake Risk Reduction, FP7, contract no. 282862, 2011-2014, www.reaktproject.eu), a task concerns feasibility study and initial implementation of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) and timedependent seismic hazard analyses aimed at mitigating seismic risk at nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Switzerland. This study is jointly carried out by academic institutions (the Swiss Seismological Service at ETHZ and BR...

  11. Program for Prediction, Prevention and Mitigation of Forest Fire and Flood risk in Albania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Centoducati, C.; D'Angelo, L.; Deda, M.; Ferraris, L.; Fiori, E.; Gjonaj, M.; Kelmendi, S.; Massabò, M.; Olli, A.; Siccardi, F.

    2012-04-01

    The rationale lying behind the program jointly managed by the Albanian and the Italian Civil protections is that of strengthening the Albanian National System for the prediction and prevention of forest fires and flooding. This is an initiative of the Italian government aimed at implementing in Albania the systems currently used by the Italian National "Functional Centers". The "Functional Centers" are the Operations Centers in charge for assessment forecasting, and surveillance of natural and man-made risks and represent a key component of the Italian Civil Protection System. CIMA Foundation is acting in its capacity as Executing Agency of the Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC) in the framework of the International Cooperation between the two Countries. CIMA Foundation has been founded by DPC and the University of Genoa with the aim of advancing the scientific research and technical development, high profile engineering and environmental science education, whose ultimate goal is to guarantee public health and safety as well as to safeguard land and sea ecosystems. The "Program for Prediction, Prevention and Mitigation of Forest Fire and Flood risk in Albania" addresses four objectives: Object 1- to establish a National Center for Forecasting and Monitoring of Natural Risk/National Functional Center, a National Operations Center and two Regional Operations Centers; Object 2 to design and to implement an intensive training programme for risk assessment and management; Object 3 - to adapt the Italian Early Warning System for forest fires to the whole Albanian territory; Object 4 - to adapt the Italian Early Warning System for flooding to the Buna river and the Shkodra region, the latter recently affected by two disastrous floods.

  12. Severe accident approach - final report. Evaluation of design measures for severe accident prevention and consequence mitigation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tentner, A. M.; Parma, E.; Wei, T.; Wigeland, R.; Nuclear Engineering Division; SNL; INL

    2010-03-01

    An important goal of the US DOE reactor development program is to conceptualize advanced safety design features for a demonstration Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR). The treatment of severe accidents is one of the key safety issues in the design approach for advanced SFR systems. It is necessary to develop an in-depth understanding of the risk of severe accidents for the SFR so that appropriate risk management measures can be implemented early in the design process. This report presents the results of a review of the SFR features and phenomena that directly influence the sequence of events during a postulated severe accident. The report identifies the safety features used or proposed for various SFR designs in the US and worldwide for the prevention and/or mitigation of Core Disruptive Accidents (CDA). The report provides an overview of the current SFR safety approaches and the role of severe accidents. Mutual understanding of these design features and safety approaches is necessary for future collaborations between the US and its international partners as part of the GEN IV program. The report also reviews the basis for an integrated safety approach to severe accidents for the SFR that reflects the safety design knowledge gained in the US during the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor (ALMR) and Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) programs. This approach relies on inherent reactor and plant safety performance characteristics to provide additional safety margins. The goal of this approach is to prevent development of severe accident conditions, even in the event of initiators with safety system failures previously recognized to lead directly to reactor damage.

  13. Making the Handoff from Earthquake Hazard Assessments to Effective Mitigation Measures (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Applegate, D.

    2010-12-01

    This year has witnessed a barrage of large earthquakes worldwide with the resulting damages ranging from inconsequential to truly catastrophic. We cannot predict when earthquakes will strike, but we can build communities that are resilient to strong shaking as well as to secondary hazards such as landslides and liquefaction. The contrasting impacts of the magnitude-7 earthquake that struck Haiti in January and the magnitude-8.8 event that struck Chile in April underscore the difference that mitigation and preparedness can make. In both cases, millions of people were exposed to severe shaking, but deaths in Chile were measured in the hundreds rather than the hundreds of thousands that perished in Haiti. Numerous factors contributed to these disparate outcomes, but the most significant is the presence of strong building codes in Chile and their total absence in Haiti. The financial cost of the Chilean earthquake still represents an unacceptably high percentage of that nation’s gross domestic product, a reminder that life safety is the paramount, but not the only, goal of disaster risk reduction measures. For building codes to be effective, both in terms of lives saved and economic cost, they need to reflect the hazard as accurately as possible. As one of four federal agencies that make up the congressionally mandated National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) develops national seismic hazard maps that form the basis for seismic provisions in model building codes through the Federal Emergency Management Agency and private-sector practitioners. This cooperation is central to NEHRP, which both fosters earthquake research and establishes pathways to translate research results into implementation measures. That translation depends on the ability of hazard-focused scientists to interact and develop mutual trust with risk-focused engineers and planners. Strengthening that interaction is an opportunity for the next generation of earthquake scientists and engineers. In addition to the national maps, the USGS produces more detailed urban seismic hazard maps that communities have used to prioritize retrofits and design critical infrastructure that can withstand large earthquakes. At a regional scale, the USGS and its partners in California have developed a time-dependent earthquake rupture forecast that is being used by the insurance sector, which can serve to distribute risk and foster mitigation if the right incentives are in place. What the USGS and partners are doing at the urban, regional, and national scales, the Global Earthquake Model project is seeking to do for the world. A significant challenge for engaging the public to prepare for earthquakes is making low-probability, high-consequence events real enough to merit personal action. Scenarios help by starting with the hazard posed by a specific earthquake and then exploring the fragility of the built environment, cascading failures, and the real-life consequences for the public. To generate such a complete picture takes multiple disciplines working together. Earthquake scenarios are being used both for emergency management exercises and much broader public preparedness efforts like the Great California ShakeOut, which engaged nearly 7 million people.

  14. Measuring Risk When Expected Losses Are Unbounded

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Balbás

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new method to introduce coherent risk measures for risks with infinite expectation, such as those characterized by some Pareto distributions. Extensions of the conditional value at risk, the weighted conditional value at risk and other examples are given. Actuarial applications are analyzed, such as extensions of the expected value premium principle when expected losses are unbounded.

  15. Diarrhoeal Health Risks Attributable to Water-Borne-Pathogens in Arsenic-Mitigated Drinking Water in West Bengal are Largely Independent of the Microbiological Quality of the Supplied Water

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debapriya Mondal

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available There is a growing discussion about the possibility of arsenic mitigation measures in Bengal and similar areas leading to undesirable substitution of water-borne-pathogen attributable risks pathogens for risks attributable to arsenic, in part because of uncertainties in relative pathogen concentrations in supplied and end-use water. We try to resolve this discussion, by assessing the relative contributions of water supply and end-user practices to water-borne-pathogen-attributable risks for arsenic mitigation options in a groundwater arsenic impacted area of West Bengal. Paired supplied arsenic-mitigated water and end-use drinking water samples from 102 households were collected and analyzed for arsenic and thermally tolerant coliforms [TTC], used as a proxy for microbiological water quality, We then estimated the DALYs related to key sequelae, diarrheal diseases and cancers, arising from water-borne pathogens and arsenic respectively. We found [TTC] in end-use drinking water to depend only weakly on [TTC] in source-water. End-user practices far outweighed the microbiological quality of supplied water in determining diarrheal disease burden. [TTC] in source water was calculated to contribute <1% of total diarrheal disease burden. No substantial demonstrable pathogen-for-arsenic risk substitution attributable to specific arsenic mitigation of supplied waters was observed, illustrating the benefits of arsenic mitigation measures in the area studied.

  16. Measurements of Electron Cloud Growth and Mitigation in Dipole, Quadrupole, and Wiggler Magnets

    CERN Document Server

    Calvey, J R; Li, Y; Livezey, J A; Makita, J; Palmer, M A; Rubin, D

    2014-01-01

    Retarding field analyzers (RFAs), which provide a localized measurement of the electron cloud, have been installed throughout the Cornell Electron Storage Ring (CESR), in different magnetic field environments. This paper describes the RFA designs developed for dipole, quadrupole, and wiggler field regions, and provides an overview of measurements made in each environment. The effectiveness of electron cloud mitigations, including coatings, grooves, and clearing electrodes, are assessed with the RFA measurements.

  17. Measurements of electron cloud growth and mitigation in dipole, quadrupole, and wiggler magnets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvey, J. R.; Hartung, W.; Li, Y.; Livezey, J. A.; Makita, J.; Palmer, M. A.; Rubin, D.

    2015-01-01

    Retarding field analyzers (RFAs), which provide a localized measurement of the electron cloud, have been installed throughout the Cornell Electron Storage Ring (CESR), in different magnetic field environments. This paper describes the RFA designs developed for dipole, quadrupole, and wiggler field regions, and provides an overview of measurements made in each environment. The effectiveness of electron cloud mitigations, including coatings, grooves, and clearing electrodes, are assessed with the RFA measurements.

  18. Tree nut allergy: risk factors for development, mitigation of reaction risk and current efforts in desensitization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Mona; Burks, A Wesley; Green, Todd D

    2015-05-01

    Allergy to tree nuts has grown widespread among patients, specifically in the pediatric population, in recent years. In this review, we evaluate and summarize the literature specific to development and treatment of tree nut allergy. The cause of tree nut allergy, such as most food allergies, is unknown; there are theories regarding maternal dietary factors as well as sensitization related to cross-reactivity to peanut allergens. The gold standard for the diagnosis of tree nut allergy is the double-blind, placebo-controlled, oral food challenge; however, simpler and more cost-effective diagnostic methods, such as the skin prick test and serum-specific IgE are often used as a supplement for diagnosis. Management of tree nut allergy consists of dietary avoidance and using epinephrine to manage serious allergic reactions. Alternative therapeutic methods, such as oral and sublingual immunotherapy and modification of allergenic proteins are being explored to develop safer, more effective and long-lasting management of tree nut allergy. We comment on the current studies involving risk factors for sensitization, diagnosis and management of tree nut allergy. PMID:25824522

  19. REVIEW OF SELECTED STATE-OF-THE-ART APPLICATIONS OF DIAGNOSTIC MEASUREMENTS FOR RADON MITIGATION PLANNING

    Science.gov (United States)

    Since late-1984, EPA's AEERL has supported a program to develop and demonstrate radon mitigation techniques for single-family detached dwellings. As part of the program, projects have been started directed at developing and demonstrating the use of diagnostic measurements in all ...

  20. CO2 Mitigation Measures of Power Sector and Its Integrated Optimization in China

    OpenAIRE

    Dai, Pan; Chen, Guang; Zhou, Hao; Su, Meirong; Bao, Haixia

    2012-01-01

    Power sector is responsible for about 40% of the total CO2 emissions in the world and plays a leading role in climate change mitigation. In this study, measures that lower CO2 emissions from the supply side, demand side, and power grid are discussed, based on which, an integrated optimization model of CO2 mitigation (IOCM) is proposed. Virtual energy, referring to energy saving capacity in both demand side and the power grid, together with conventional energy in supply side, is unified planni...

  1. Multiple-pollutant cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gas mitigation measures in the UK agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ? Multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curves can inform integrated environmental policy. ? We incorporated the co-effects on NH3, NO3?, P and sediment, as monetary values, into the UK GHG MACC. ? Adding co-effects modifies the GHG MACC, though with little impact unless using high damage values. ? Further research is needed on the co-effects of GHG mitigation measures and on damage values. ? Analysis should focus on the co-effects of measures that are slightly above or below the threshold. -- Abstract: This paper develops multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curve analysis to identify an optimal set of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures considering the trade-offs and synergies with other environmental pollutants. The analysis is applied to UK agriculture, a sector expected to make a contribution to the national GHG mitigation effort. Previous analyses using marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) have determined the sector's GHG abatement potential based on the cost-effectiveness of a variety of technically feasible mitigation measures. Most of these measures have external effects on other pollution loads arising from agricultural activities. Here the monetary values of four of the most important impacts to water and air (specifically ammonia, nitrate, phosphorous and sediment) are included in the cost-effectiveness analysis. The resulting multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curve (MP MACC) informs the design of sustainable climate change policies by showing how the MP MACC for the UK agriculture can differ from the GHG MACC. The analysis also highlights research gaps, and suggests a need to understand the wider environmental effects of GHG mitigation options and to reduce the uncertainty in pollutant damage cost estimates

  2. Risk informed analysis of training effectiveness for mitigating accidents of nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Chang Ju [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-10-15

    A critical area for deriving expected benefits from training and exercise is the measurement of 'training effectiveness'-how well the training inputs are serving the intended purpose. This aspect is often neglected by nuclear organizations, saying that measurement is difficult. However, I believe that a technique in nuclear society has developed sufficiently to measure most important aspects of training by way of human reliability analysis (HRA) used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The consequences of errors caused by lack of training can be evaluated in terms of the overall vulnerability to human error of the facility under consideration. This study presents current situation and considerations for measures of robustness on nuclear accidents and HRA technique on the training effectiveness. In view of risk informed approach with this consideration and an example case, I'd like to identify appropriate relationship between risk measures of robustness and training effectiveness.

  3. A review of selected state of the art applications of diagnostic measurements for radon mitigation planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Air and Energy Engineering Laboratory of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has, since the fall of 1984, supported a program to develop and demonstrate radon mitigation techniques for single family detached dwellings. To date approximately sixty houses with radon concentrations ranging from 20 to 600 rhoCi/L (740-22,000 Bq/m/sup -3/) have been investigated and have had radon mitigation plans developed for demonstration purposes. This paper compares and evaluates the relative utility of selected diagnostic measurements used by EPA contractors in their efforts to understand the indoor radon problem and select the most appropriate mitigation for a specific house. The diagnostic measurements reported include: grab sampling of infiltrating soil gas from cracks or openings around utility entries to below-grade house structure, and of soil gas under the slab and in hollow walls, air flow and air communications measurements using depressurization under basement floors and around walls, whole house infiltration (leakage area) measurements, differential pressure measurements between various zones inside and outside the house, gamma measurements, and radon flux measurements over exposed soil and through basement walls and floors

  4. On the post mitigation impact risk assessment of possible targets for an asteroid deflection demonstration mission in the NEOShield project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggl, Siegfried

    2014-05-01

    Mankind believes to have the capabilities to avert potentially disastrous asteroid impacts. Yet, only the realization of a mitigation demonstration mission can confirm such a claim. The NEOShield project, an international collaboration under European leadership, aims to draw a comprehensive picture of the scientific as well as technical requirements to such an endeavor. One of the top priorities of such a demonstration mission is, of course, that a previously harmless target asteroid shall not be turned into a potentially hazardous object. Given the inherently large uncertainties in an asteroid's physical parameters, as well as the additional uncertainties introduced during the deflection attempt, an in depth analysis of the change in asteroid impact probabilities after a deflection event becomes necessary. We present a post mitigation impact risk analysis of a list of potential deflection test missions and discuss the influence of orbital, physical and mitigation induced uncertainties.

  5. Role of the Internet in Anticipating and Mitigating Earthquake Catastrophes, and the Emergence of Personal Risk Management (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Donnellan, A.; Graves, W.; Tiampo, K. F.; Klein, W.

    2009-12-01

    Risks from natural and financial catastrophes are currently managed by a combination of large public and private institutions. Public institutions usually are comprised of government agencies that conduct studies, formulate policies and guidelines, enforce regulations, and make “official” forecasts. Private institutions include insurance and reinsurance companies, and financial service companies that underwrite catastrophe (“cat”) bonds, and make private forecasts. Although decisions about allocating resources and developing solutions are made by large institutions, the costs of dealing with catastrophes generally fall for the most part on businesses and the general public. Information on potential risks is generally available to the public for some hazards but not others. For example, in the case of weather, private forecast services are provided by www.weather.com and www.wunderground.com. For earthquakes in California (only), the official forecast is the WGCEP-USGS forecast, but provided in a format that is difficult for the public to use. Other privately made forecasts are currently available, for example by the JPL QuakeSim and Russian groups, but these efforts are limited. As more of the world’s population moves increasingly into major seismic zones, new strategies are needed to allow individuals to manage their personal risk from large and damaging earthquakes. Examples include individual mitigation measures such as retrofitting, as well as microinsurance in both developing and developed countries, as well as other financial strategies. We argue that the “long tail” of the internet offers an ideal, and greatly underutilized mechanism to reach out to consumers and to provide them with the information and tools they need to confront and manage seismic hazard and risk on an individual, personalized basis. Information of this type includes not only global hazard forecasts, which are now possible, but also global risk estimation. Additionally, social networking tools are available that will allow self-organizing, disaster-resilient communities to arise as emergent structures from the underlying nonlinear social dynamics. In this talk, we argue that the current style of risk management is not making adequate use of modern internet technology, and that significantly more can be done. We suggest several avenues to proceed, in particular making use of the internet for earthquake forecast and information delivery, as well as tracking forecast validation and verification on a real-time basis. We also show examples of forecasts delivered over the internet, and describe how these are made.

  6. Techniques to Assess and Mitigate the Environmental Risk Posed by use of Airguns: Recent Advances from Academic Research Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, P. J.; Tyack, P. L.; Johnson, M. P.; Madsen, P. T.; King, R.

    2006-05-01

    There is considerable uncertainty about the ways in which marine mammals might react to noise, the biological significance of reactions, and the effectiveness of planning and real-time mitigation techniques. A planning tool commonly used to assess environmental risk of acoustic activities uses simulations to predict acoustic exposures received by animals, and translates exposure to response using a dose-response function to yield an estimate of the undesired impact on a population. Recent advances show promise to convert this planning tool into a real-time mitigation tool, using Bayesian statistical methods. In this approach, being developed for use by the British Navy, the environmental risk simulation is updated continuously during field operations. The distribution of exposure, set initially based on animal density, is updated in real-time using animal sensing data or environmental data known to correlate with the absence or presence of marine mammals. This conditional probability of animal presence should therefore be more accurate than prior probabilities used during planning, which enables a more accurate and quantitative assessment of both the impact of activities and reduction of impact via mitigation decisions. Two key areas of uncertainty in addition to animal presence/absence are 1.) how biologically-relevant behaviours are affected by exposure to noise, and 2.) whether animals avoid loud noise sources, which is the basis of ramp-up as a mitigation tool. With support from MMS and industry partners, we assessed foraging behaviour and avoidance movements of 8 tagged sperm whales in the Gulf of Mexico during experimental exposure to airguns. The whale that was approached most closely prolonged a surface resting bout hours longer than typical, but resumed foraging immediately after the airguns ceased, suggesting avoidance of deep diving necessary for foraging near active airguns. Behavioral indices of foraging rate (echolocation buzzes produced during prey capture) and locomotion (from pitching movements generated by active swimming) of the 7 remaining exposed whales were compared to sham exposure and post-exposure control periods in 13 unexposed whales. Pitching movements were 6% lower during exposure (P=0.014) with all 7 whales reducing pitching movements. Buzz rates were 19% lower during the exposure condition, but this difference was not statistically significant (P=0.141). The substantial change in mean buzz rate from this small sample motivated a Bayesian analysis, which determined that a model of reduced buzz rate had roughly 3x more posterior support than no effect. Despite the likely impact of airguns on foraging, no avoidance by tagged sperm whales was observed during gradual ramp-up at distances of 7-13km, or full array exposures at 1-13km, calling into question the effectiveness of ramp-up. These results demonstrate that response data can be collected at measured exposure levels, and should motivate additional studies of the effects of airguns on foraging, particularly in waters without such a long history of seismic exploration as the Gulf of Mexico.

  7. Impact of road mitigation measures on amphibian populations: A stage-class population mathematical model

    OpenAIRE

    Jolivet, Renaud; Antoniazza, Michel; Strehler-perrin, Catherine; Gander, Antoine

    2008-01-01

    It is now well established that amphibians are suffering widespread decline and extinctions. Among other causes, urbanization is responsible for habitat reduction, habitat fragmentation and massive road kills. In this context, it is urgent to develop and assess appropriate conservation measures. Using yearly censuses of migrating adults of two anuran species at one location in Switzerland, we examined the impact of a road mitigation measure - permanent under-road tunnels wit...

  8. Risk Measures and Dependence Modeling in Financial Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Eriksson, Kristofer

    2014-01-01

    In financial risk management it is essential to be able to model dependence in markets and portfolios in an accurate and efficient way. A high positive dependence between assets in a portfolio can be devastating, especially in times of crises, since losses will most likely occur at the same time in all assets for such a portfolio. The dependence is therefore directly linked to the risk of the portfolio. The risk can be estimated by several different risk measures, for example Value-at-Risk an...

  9. Cooperative efforts to mitigate proliferation risks at the Semipalatinsk test site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: For forty years the Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS) was used by the Soviet Union for atmospheric and underground nuclear tests. Atmospheric test were terminated as a result of the 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty; underground tests continued until 1990. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991, most of the soldiers guarding the site and most of the technical specialists returned to Russia. The Kazakhstan National Nuclear Center (NNC) was left with a huge environmental legacy and an unknown nuclear proliferation legacy. The Russian government was concerned that it would have to shoulder the environmental cleanup costs and, perhaps, face reparations for past activities. Consequently, its officials and technical specialists had no desire to return to the STS. NNC officials and technical specialists reached out to the international community to ask for assistance in assessing and mitigating the environmental risks at the STS. They had virtually no information about potential proliferation concerns because the nuclear testing records were Russian government property. Under the United States Cooperative Threat Reduction (Nunn-Lugar) program, a concerted effort was made by the U.S. Department of Defense to close the nuclear testing tunnels to destroy the nuclear testing infrastructure at the STS. The Nunn-Lugar program also facilitated the removal of nearly 600 kilograms of highly enrichment uranium from the Ulba Metallurgical Plant in Ust-Kamenothe Ulba Metallurgical Plant in Ust-Kamenogorsk to the United States to avoid potential nuclear proliferation problems. The Nunn-Lugar program was also responsible, together with the Russian government, to return Soviet nuclear weapons from Kazakhstan to Russia. As part of the Cooperative Threat Reduction lab-to-lab program, technical specialists from the U.S. national laboratories began to work with NNC specialists to enhance the protection and safeguarding of fissile materials resident at STS reactors and at the research reactor and associated facilities at the Institute for Nuclear Physics at Alatau and the fast reactor at Aktau. These programs resulted in cooperative activities between NNC and U.S. national laboratory technical specialists. One of these activities brought me to the STS in April 1998. That visit combined with my experience at the U.S. Nevada Nuclear Test Site convinced me that there were likely other fissile materials present at the STS that may present a significant proliferation risk and required immediate attention. NNC officials and specialists were unsuccessful in obtaining any information from the Russian government. Moreover, since the Republic of Kazakhstan had signed the nuclear nonproliferation treaty, it was not supposed to have undeclared fissile materials in its territory. By 1998, my colleagues at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and I had established close cooperation with the nuclear specialists from the Russian Federal Nuclear Centers (the All-Russia Institute for Experimental Physics, VNIIEF, and All-Russia Institute for Theoretical Physics, VNIITF). We were able to convince Academician Rady I. Ilkaev, director of VNIIEF, to return to Kazakhstan in 1999 and sign a three-party technical memorandum to work with the three governments to assess and liquidate the potential proliferation risks. Government officials from the U.S. Department of Energy, Russian Ministry of Atomic Energy, and RK NNC gave formal approval to proceed with trilateral technical cooperation to assess and remediate the proliferation risks associated with former Russian nuclear experiments and tests at STS. Over the next 13 years, we witnessed a remarkable spirit of cooperation among the three countries. The Russian nuclear specialists identified the potential sites of concerns, the type of materials and testing activity. They also played a major role in suggesting the appropriate mitigation actions. Without their cooperation, this effort could not have been successful. If left to the Americans and Kazakhstani specialists, it would have been like lookin

  10. Measuring reporting verifying. A primer on MRV for nationally appropriate mitigation actions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hinostroza, M. (ed.); Luetken, S.; Holm Olsen, K. (Technical Univ. of Denmark. UNEP Risoe Centre, Roskilde (Denmark)); Aalders, E.; Pretlove, B.; Peters, N. (Det Norske Veritas, Hellerup (Denmark))

    2012-03-15

    The requirements for measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) of nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) are one of the crucial topics on the agenda of international negotiations to address climate change mitigation. According to agreements so far, the general guidelines for domestic MRV are to be developed by Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA)1. Further, the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) will be conducting international consultations and analysis (ICA) of biennial update reports (BUR) to improve transparency of mitigation actions, which should be measured, reported and verified. 2. What is clear from undergoing discussions both at SBSTA and at SBI is that MRV for NAMAs should not be a burden for controlling greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions connected to economic activities. Instead, the MRV process should facilitate mitigation actions; encourage the redirection of investments and address concerns regarding carbon content of emission intensive operations of private and public companies and enterprises worldwide. While MRV requirements are being shaped within the Convention, there are a number of initiatives supporting developing countries moving forward with NAMA development and demonstration activities. How these actions shall be measured, reported and verified, however, remain unanswered. MRV is not new. It is present in most existing policies and frameworks related to climate change mitigation. With an aim to contribute to international debate and capacity building on this crucial issue, the UNEP Risoe Centre in cooperation with UNDP, are pleased to present this publication that through the direct collaboration with Det Norske Veritas (DNV) builds on existing MRV practices in current carbon markets; provides insights on how MRV for NAMAs can be performed and identifies elements and drivers to be considered when designing adequate MRV systems for NAMAs in developing countries. This primer is the second contribution in the emerging area of NAMAs and MRV. It is complemented by a recent publication on Low Carbon Development Strategies and NAMAs. (Author)

  11. Scientific Opinion on animal health risk mitigation treatments as regards imports of animal casings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EFSA Panel on Animal Health and Welfare

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available

    Salting with NaCl for 30 days is a well-established and accepted procedure in the casings industry and it has been the standard animal health risk mitigation treatment prescribed in EU legislation for many years. This opinion reviews (i improvements in the NaCl treatment that would lead to an increased level of safety to avoid transmission of animal pathogens, (ii alternative treatments that could have been developed giving equivalent or better results in the inactivation of relevant pathogens, and (iii provides an assessment of the phosphate-salt treatment recommended by OIE for foot and mouth disease virus, in particular if it could be considered safe as regards the elimination of other animal pathogens. The rate of inactivation of viruses was highly dependent on temperature for both NaCl and phosphate-NaCl treatment. Treatment with phosphate-NaCl mixture leads to faster inactivation than treatment with NaCl salt alone. Brucella species are readily inactivated by NaCl salting, but mycobacteriamay survive beyond 30 days in intestines in conditions similar to those used for salting of casings. It is recommended that casings should be treated at 20 °C for 30 days to achieve effective inactivation of animal pathogens. Several other treatments have been applied to casings with the aim of inactivating infectious agents, but none of them have been extensively investigated with viruses relevant for animal health.

  12. The Sensor Test for Orion RelNav Risk Mitigation (STORRM) Development Test Objective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christian, John A.; Hinkel, Heather; D'Souza, Christopher N.; Maguire, Sean; Patangan, Mogi

    2011-01-01

    The Sensor Test for Orion Relative-Navigation Risk Mitigation (STORRM) Development Test Objective (DTO) flew aboard the Space Shuttle Endeavour on STS-134 in May- June 2011, and was designed to characterize the performance of the flash LIDAR and docking camera being developed for the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle. The flash LIDAR, called the Vision Navigation Sensor (VNS), will be the primary navigation instrument used by the Orion vehicle during rendezvous, proximity operations, and docking. The DC will be used by the Orion crew for piloting cues during docking. This paper provides an overview of the STORRM test objectives and the concept of operations. It continues with a description of STORRM's major hardware components, which include the VNS, docking camera, and supporting avionics. Next, an overview of crew and analyst training activities will describe how the STORRM team prepared for flight. Then an overview of in-flight data collection and analysis is presented. Key findings and results from this project are summarized. Finally, the paper concludes with lessons learned from the STORRM DTO.

  13. Developing a scientific procedure for community based hazard mapping and risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verrier, M.

    2011-12-01

    As an international exchange student from the Geological Sciences Department at San Diego State University (SDSU), I joined the KKN-PPM program at Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM), Yogyakarta, Indonesia, in July 2011 for 12 days (July 4th to July 16th) of its two month duration (July 4th to August 25th). The KKN-PPM group I was attached was designated 154 and was focused in Plosorejo Village, Karanganyar, Kerjo, Central Java, Indonesia. The mission of KKN-PPM 154 was to survey Plosorejo village for existing landslides, to generate a simple hazard susceptibility map that can be understood by local villagers, and then to begin dissemination of that map into the community. To generate our susceptibility map we first conducted a geological survey of the existing landslides in the field study area, with a focus on determining landslide triggers and gauging areas for susceptibility for future landslides. The methods for gauging susceptibility included lithological observation, the presence of linear cracking, visible loss of structural integrity in structures such as villager homes, as well as collaboration with local residents and with the local rescue and response team. There were three color distinctions used in representing susceptibility which were green, where there is no immediate danger of landslide damage; orange, where transportation routes are at risk of being disrupted by landslides; and red, where imminent landslide potential puts a home in direct danger. The landslide inventory and susceptibility data was compiled into digital mediums such as CorelDraw, ArcGIS and Google Earth. Once a technical map was generated, we presented it to the village leadership for confirmation and modification based on their experience. Finally, we began to use the technical susceptibility map to draft evacuation routes and meeting points in the event of landslides, as well as simple susceptibility maps that can be understood and utilized by local villagers. Landslide mitigation projects that are being conducted alongside the community hazard map include marking evacuation routes with painted bamboo signs, creating a meaningful landslide awareness mural, and installing simple early warning systems that detect land movement and alert residents that evacuation routes should be used. KKN-PPM is scheduled to continue until August 25th, 2011. In the future, research will be done into using the model for community based hazard mapping outlined here in the Geological Sciences Department at SDSU to increase georisk awareness and improve mitigation of landslides in local areas of need such as Tijuana, Mexico.

  14. From Smile Asymptotics to Market Risk Measures

    CERN Document Server

    Sircar, Ronnie

    2011-01-01

    The left tail of the implied volatility skew, coming from quotes on out-of-the-money put options, can be thought to reflect the market's assessment of the risk of a huge drop in stock prices. We analyze how this market information can be integrated into the theoretical framework of convex monetary measures of risk. In particular, we make use of indifference pricing by dynamic convex risk measures, which are given as solutions of backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs), to establish a link between these two approaches to risk measurement. We derive a characterization of the implied volatility in terms of the solution of a nonlinear PDE and provide a small time-to-maturity expansion and numerical solutions. This procedure allows to choose convex risk measures in a conveniently parametrized class, distorted entropic dynamic risk measures, which we introduce here, such that the asymptotic volatility skew under indifference pricing can be matched with the market skew.

  15. Physical Vulnerability Assessment Based on Fluid and Classical Mechanics to Support Cost-Benefit Analysis of Flood Risk Mitigation Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Volcan

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of flood events that occurred in autumn 2011 in the Italian regions of Liguria and Tuscany revived the engagement of the public decision-maker to enhance the synergy of flood control and land use planning. In this context, the design of efficient flood risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation critically relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the fixed and mobile elements exposed to flood hazard. In this paper we develop computation schemes enabling dynamic vulnerability and risk analyses for a broad typological variety of elements at risk. To show their applicability, a series of prime examples are discussed in detail, e.g. a bridge deck impacted by the flood and a car, first displaced and subsequently exposed to collision with fixed objects. We hold the view that it is essential that the derivation of the computational schemes to assess the vulnerability of endangered objects should be based on classical and fluid mechanics. In such a way, we aim to complement from a methodological perspective the existing, mainly empirical, vulnerability and risk assessment approaches and to support the design of effective flood risk mitigation strategies by defusing the main criticalities within the systems prone to flood risk.

  16. Continuous Monitoring and On-line Analysis of Operational Dose Rates: Tools to Further Mitigate Radiation Risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Along with passive and active engineering and administrative controls usually implemented in radiation protection programs at different facilities, continuous monitoring and on-line analysis of data measured by the radiation detectors at the workplace and in the environment can be considered as an additional tool used to further mitigate radiation risks. Many monitoring systems on the market today allow connecting radiation area monitors into a network, and reading and accumulating data continuously in a database. The point of this presentation is to bring attention to the fact that such accumulated information can be analyzed and used in many respects to improve reliability and functionality of the monitoring and control systems. A simple time history of background readings from a radiation detector can be used to evaluate the stability of the detector performance. Data recorded during normal facility operations may serve to establish a pattern of acceptable dose rates in such detector and allow to better detect off-normal and unstable modes of the facility operation before they reach hardware trip levels. Facility operators and users may utilize such monitoring systems to optimize operations and minimize their radiological impact. Implementation and examples of use of the RADMON radiation monitoring and data analysis system at Jefferson Lab is presented.

  17. A Contribution to Mitigating Seismic Risk in the Bay Area: The Bay Area Regional Deformation (BARD) GPS Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houlie, N.; Romanowicz, B.; Hellweg, P.

    2007-05-01

    In the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), two million people live in a geologically complex, tectonically active region that has experienced several historic earthquakes, including the 1868 Hayward, the 1906 San Francisco, and 1989 Loma Prieta earthquakes. Geodetic measurements, which are especially useful for detecting deformation and strain on deep structures throughout the seismic cycle, show that Bay Area deformation is both spatially complex and varying with time. Increasingly, GPS data can also be used in real time to complement seismic data in providing robust real-time earthquake information, and, potentially, early warning. The Bay Area Regional Deformation (BARD) network of permanent, continuously operating Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers monitors crustal deformation in the Bay Area and northern California. BARD is a network collocated with several seismic networks (BDSN, NHFN, mini-PBO) operating in Northern California. As the local determination of magnitude is problematic for large earthquakes, the GPS will provide strong constraints on rupture geometry and amount of slip along the slipping fault. Thus, the collocation of all the networks will help mitigate earthquake- related risks associated with an earthquake in the SFBA or in northern California.

  18. Physical Vulnerability Assessment Based on Fluid and Classical Mechanics to Support Cost-Benefit Analysis of Flood Risk Mitigation Strategies

    OpenAIRE

    Claudio Volcan; Bruno Mazzorana; Laura Levaggi; Omar Formaggioni

    2012-01-01

    The impacts of flood events that occurred in autumn 2011 in the Italian regions of Liguria and Tuscany revived the engagement of the public decision-maker to enhance the synergy of flood control and land use planning. In this context, the design of efficient flood risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation critically relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the fixed and mobile elements exposed to flood hazard. In this paper we develop computation schemes enabling dyn...

  19. Engineering aspects of earthquake risk mitigation: Lessons from management of recent earthquakes, and consequential mudflows and landslides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Proceedings contain 30 selected presentations given at the Second and Third UNDRO/USSR Training Seminars: Engineering Aspects of Earthquake Risk Assessment and Mitigation of Losses, held in Dushanbe, October 1988; and Lessons from Management of Recent Earthquakes, and Consequential Mudflows and Landslides, held in Moscow, October 1989. The annexes to the document provide information on the participants, the work programme and the resolution adopted at each of the seminars. Refs, figs and tabs

  20. Experimental measurements about harmonic current mitigation of electric vehicle battery chargers

    OpenAIRE

    Sainz Sapera, Luis; Balcells Sendra, Josep

    2011-01-01

    The expected high penetration of battery chargers for electric vehicles (EV) in electric networks is foreseen as a potential problem for power quality. Battery chargers are nonlinear devices that inject harmonic currents and pollute network voltages. Thus, their harmonic emissions must be analyzed and reduced by harmonic mitigation techniques to avoid future problems. This paper analyzes and reports some real case measurements of harmonics injected by single- and three-ph...

  1. Beam Coupling Impedance Measurement and Mitigation for a TOTEM Roman Pot

    OpenAIRE

    Deile, Mario; Caspers, Fritz; Kroyer, Tom; Oriunno, Marco; Radermacher, Ernst; Roncarolo, Federico; Soter, Anna

    2008-01-01

    The longitudinal and transverse beam coupling impedance of the first final TOTEM Roman Pot unit has been measured in the laboratory with the wire method. For the evaluation of transverse impedance the wire position has been kept constant, and the insertions of the RP were moved asymmetrically. With the original configuration of the RP, resonances with fairly high Q values were observed. In order to mitigate this problem, RF-absorbing ferrite plates were mounted in appropriat...

  2. Measures of risk importance and their applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This work is part of a project being conducted for the Division of Risk Analysis (DRA) of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The objectives of the project are to evaluate the importances of containment, the different safety functions, and other various contributers as assessed in probabilistic risk analyses and to identify generic conclusions regarding the importances. Effective display of the importances is an important part of these objectives. To address these objectives, measures of risk importance need to be first identified and then they need to be evaluated for the different risk analyses which have been performed. This report describes the risk importance measures that were defined and were applied to the risk analyses which were performed as part of the Reactor Safety Study Methodology Applications Program (RSSMAP). The risk importance measures defined in this report measure the importance of features not only with regard to risk reduction but also with regard to reliability assurance, or risk maintenance. The goal of this report is not to identify new mathematical formulas for risk importance but to show how importance measures can be interpreted and can be applied

  3. Measuring social risk and determining its acceptability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The implementation of a nuclear waste management technology raises several issues concerning the regulation of social risk. This paper presents a decision analytic approach to resolving some of those issues. A methodology for developing a radiological risk measure is presented, and several approaches to defining acceptable levels of that risk measure are considered. The methodology presented is oriented toward the development of radiological performance objectives for use as guidance in the drafting of regulations

  4. Keeping focus on earthquakes at school for seismic risk mitigation of the next generations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saraò, Angela; Barnaba, Carla; Peruzza, Laura

    2013-04-01

    The knowledge of the seismic history of its own territory, the understanding of physical phenomena in response to an earthquake, the changes in the cultural heritage following a strong earthquake, the learning of actions to be taken during and after an earthquake, are piece of information that contribute to keep focus on the seismic hazard and to implement strategies for seismic risk mitigation. The training of new generations, today more than ever subject to rapid forgetting of past events, becomes therefore a key element to increase the perception that earthquakes happened and can happen at anytime and that mitigation actions are the only means to ensure the safety and to reduce damages and human losses. Since several years our institute (OGS) is involved in activities to raise awareness of education on earthquake. We aim to implement education programs with the goal of addressing a critical approach to seismic hazard reduction, differentiating the types of activities according to the age of the students. However, being such kind of activity unfunded, we can act at now only on a very limited number of schools per year. To be effective, the inclusion of the seismic risk issues in school curricula requires specific time and appropriate approaches when planning activities. For this reason, we involve also the teachers as proponents of activities and we encourage them to keep alive memories and discussion on earthquake in the classes. During the past years we acted mainly in the schools of the Friuli Venezia Giulia area (NE Italy), that is an earthquake prone area struck in 1976 by a destructive seismic event (Ms=6.5). We organized short training courses for teachers, we lectured classes, and we led laboratory activities with students. Indeed, being well known that students enjoy classes more when visual and active learning are joined, we propose a program that is composed by seminars, demonstrations and hands-on activities in the classrooms; for high school students we propose summer stages at the OGS Seismological Department. Some examples of education activities we performed during the last two years are here presented. Starting with kids at kindergartens, where we propose play and story-telling activities with the final goal to prepare them on what to do in case an earthquake occurs, we show our experience with the primary and intermediate schools where, through hands-on activities, we reproduce and explain the earthquake phenomenon and its effects. Then we illustrate the work of high school students who, under the guidance of an expert seismologist, designed and performed a microzonation study in Gemona del Friuli, a small town that was severely damaged by the 1976 earthquake. Satisfaction questionnaires and feedback by students and teachers help us to assess the effectiveness of our efforts as well as to improve our next actions.

  5. The Measuring Method of Risk with Energy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Lin

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Since Harry. M. Markowitz published ‘portfolio Selection’ (1952, financial economists have proposed many methods to measure risk such as variant, downside-variant, average
    absolute deviation, maximum deviation, VaR and so on. However, these methods share a common limitation, which only consider moment of the price, not consider the influence of exchange quantity. In common situation, these methods and their financial theory models can help investors prevent and scatter the risks effectively, but they are no effective to
    prevent the financial crisis such as Southeast Asia financial in1997 and LTCM crisis in 1998. In this paper, a new method of measuring risk called energy-risk has been proposed. The aim to this method is to respond the usual risk as well as the risk caused by unexpected event and to prevent the risks under any circumstances effectively.

  6. MODERN RISK MEASURES FOR INDIVIDUAL HIGHER EDUCATION INVESTMENT RISK EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vona Mate

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available One of the reasons why people get degree and participate in organized education is that they want to raise their human capital or signal their inner abilities to future employers by sorting themselves out. In both cases they can expect return to their investment, because they can expect higher life-time earnings than those who do not have degree. In this paper we will refer this activity as higher education investment or education investment. In this paper the investment of the state into educating their citizens will not be considered. The question of this paper will develop the findings of Vona (2014. I suggested to introduce modern risk measures because individual risk-taking became a serious question. It was considered that modern risk measures can help to solve some issues with the relation of investment and risk. However before applying some measures from a different field of science, namely investment finance and financial mathematics, to another, economics of education, there must be a very careful consideration, because there are debate over these measures applicability even on their field of science. Value at Risk is not coherent and Expected Shortfall is only one of a great deal of possible tail loss measures. For this reason it will be discussed in detail how should we should adopt the measures, what kind of data is necessary for calculating this risk measures and what kind of new insight they can bring. With the aid of a numerical example it will be shown that with expected shortfall measure we can reflect some large losses, and potential high value of diversification. We show the value at risk based measure is not coherent and this means it points out something different in this environment. It is can be an indicator of loss in opportunities for high end returns.

  7. The Use of the Integrated Medical Model for Forecasting and Mitigating Medical Risks for a Near-Earth Asteroid Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerstman, Eric; Saile, Lynn; Freire de Carvalho, Mary; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Lopez, Vilma

    2011-01-01

    Introduction The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission managers and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight. Methods Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of medical events, crew health metrics, medical resource utilization, and probability estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM can also optimize medical kits within the constraints of mass and volume for specified missions. The IMM was used to forecast medical evacuation and loss of crew life probabilities, as well as crew health metrics for a near-earth asteroid (NEA) mission. An optimized medical kit for this mission was proposed based on the IMM simulation. Discussion The IMM can provide information to the space program regarding medical risks, including crew medical impairment, medical evacuation and loss of crew life. This information is valuable to mission managers and the space medicine community in assessing risk and developing mitigation strategies. Exploration missions such as NEA missions will have significant mass and volume constraints applied to the medical system. Appropriate allocation of medical resources will be critical to mission success. The IMM capability of optimizing medical systems based on specific crew and mission profiles will be advantageous to medical system designers. Conclusion The IMM is a decision support tool that can provide estimates of the impact of medical events on human space flight missions, such as crew impairment, evacuation, and loss of crew life. It can be used to support the development of mitigation strategies and to propose optimized medical systems for specified space flight missions. Learning Objectives The audience will learn how an evidence-based decision support tool can be used to help assess risk, develop mitigation strategies, and optimize medical systems for exploration space flight missions.

  8. Resolving problems in repository siting: a review of issues and mitigation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There is a need for a systematic evaluation of impact management measures which could be used in connection with the development of a nuclear waste repository. This chapter is concerned with the identification of problems likely to be encountered and evaluation of impact mitigation measures. It outlines the role that past experiences might play in dealing with the socioeconomic impacts, and reviews the models of negotiation and arbitration procedures as well as the planning programs, monitoring agreements, and impact assistance legislation. A combination of past strategies with site-specific information appears to be the strongest approach. 2 tables

  9. Measurement and mitigation of nitrous oxide emissions from a high nitrogen input vegetable system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Shu Kee; Suter, Helen; Davies, Rohan; Bai, Mei; Sun, Jianlei; Chen, Deli

    2015-02-01

    The emission and mitigation of nitrous oxide (N2O) from high nitrogen (N) vegetable systems is not well understood. Nitrification inhibitors are widely used to decrease N2O emissions in many cropping systems. However, most N2O flux measurements and inhibitor impacts have been made with small chambers and have not been investigated at a paddock-scale using micrometeorological techniques. We quantified N2O fluxes over a four ha celery paddock using open-path Fourier Transform Infrared spectroscopy in conjunction with a backward Lagrangian stochastic model, in addition to using a closed chamber technique. The celery crop was grown on a sandy soil in southern Victoria, Australia. The emission of N2O was measured following the application of chicken manure and N fertilizer with and without the application of a nitrification inhibitor 3, 4-dimethyl pyrazole phosphate (DMPP). The two techniques consistently demonstrated that DMPP application reduced N2O emission by 37-44%, even though the N2O fluxes measured by a micrometeorological technique were more than 10 times higher than the small chamber measurements. The results suggest that nitrification inhibitors have the potential to mitigate N2O emission from intensive vegetable production systems, and that the national soil N2O emission inventory assessments and modelling predictions may vary with gas measurement techniques.

  10. Harmonic Generation and Mitigation by Full-Scale Converter Wind Turbines: : Measurements and Simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kocewiak, Lukasz Hubert; Hjerrild, Jesper

    2011-01-01

    This paper shows that wind turbine harmonic generation and mitigation assessment are complex tasks, and many aspects, such as measurements, data processing, modelling and validation, must be taken into consideration. The paper describes the measurement process and shows sophisticated analyses on representative harmonic measurements of the wind turbine generators at Avedøre Holme. The nature of generation and mitigation of harmonic components in the wind turbine generators are clearly presented and explained. The mechanism of harmonic generation, some dynamic behaviour aspects and interaction with the external network are considered. Measurement, data processing and simulation results are presented and compared. Different analysis methods, such as statistical analysis, harmonic calculation, and mathematical description are applied and described in detail. Some issues regarding commonly applied standards are also put forward in the paper. Based on measurements and simulations, it is shown that a general overview of the behaviour of a wind turbine generator cannot be fully observed only based on harmonic current analyses as suggested in the standards.

  11. A virtual community and cyberinfrastructure for collaboration in volcano research and risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentine, G. A.

    2012-12-01

    VHub (short for VolcanoHub, and accessible at vhub.org) is an online platform for collaboration in research and training related to volcanoes, the hazards they pose, and risk mitigation. The underlying concept is to provide a mechanism that enables workers to share information with colleagues around the globe; VHub and similar hub technologies could prove very powerful in collaborating and communicating about circum-Pacific volcanic hazards. Collaboration occurs around several different points: (1) modeling and simulation; (2) data sharing; (3) education and training; (4) volcano observatories; and (5) project-specific groups. VHub promotes modeling and simulation in two ways: (1) some models can be implemented on VHub for online execution. This eliminates the need to download and compile a code on a local computer. VHub can provide a central "warehouse" for such models that should result in broader dissemination. VHub also provides a platform that supports the more complex CFD models by enabling the sharing of code development and problem-solving knowledge, benchmarking datasets, and the development of validation exercises. VHub also provides a platform for sharing of data and datasets. The VHub development team is implementing the iRODS data sharing middleware (see irods.org). iRODS allows a researcher to access data that are located at participating data sources around the world (a "cloud" of data) as if the data were housed in a single virtual database. Education and training is another important use of the VHub platform. Audio-video recordings of seminars, PowerPoint slide sets, and educational simulations are all items that can be placed onto VHub for use by the community or by selected collaborators. An important point is that the "manager" of a given educational resource (or any other resource, such as a dataset or a model) can control the privacy of that resource, ranging from private (only accessible by, and known to, specific collaborators) to completely public. Materials for use in the classroom can be shared via VHub. VHub is a very useful platform for project-specific collaborations. With a group site on VHub where collaborators share documents, datasets, maps, and have ongoing discussions using the discussion board function. VHub is funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation, and is participating in development of larger earth-science cyberinfrastructure initiatives (EarthCube), as well as supporting efforts such as the Global Volcano Model.

  12. NASA Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation Remediation Technology Collaboration Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romeo, James

    2013-01-01

    NASA is committed to finding solutions to agency cleanup problems that are better, cheaper, and more effective than the status quo. Unfortunately, some potential solutions involve innovative technologies for which NASA remediation managers may not have a high level of understanding or confidence. Since 2004, NASA's Stennis Space Center (SSC) in Mississippi has been pumping groundwater contaminated with trichloroethylene (TCE) and other halogenated volatile organic compounds (HVOC) from their cleanup location designated "Area G" through extraction wells to an aboveground treatment system. Over time, however, the effectiveness of this treatment strategy has diminished and an alternative approach is needed. In 2012, professionals from NASA's Principal Center for Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation (TEERM) introduced SSC managers to an innovative technology for enhancing the performance of SSC's existing pump and treat system. The technology, generally referred to as in situ chemical oxidation (ISCO), involves slowly and continuously injecting a strong but safe chemical oxidant into the groundwater. Treatment is enhanced by a "surfactant-type effect" which causes residual contamination from saturated soil to be released into the dissolved-phase where it can be readily oxidized. Any dissolved-phase contamination that was not oxidized can be collected by the extraction well network and treated aboveground. SSC was not familiar with the technology so to increase their confidence, TEERM identified a contractor who was willing to demonstrate their product and process at a significantly reduced price. An initial, small-scale demonstration of ISCO began at sse in March 2012 and completed in August 2012. This successful demonstration was followed by three larger-scale ISCO demonstrations between August and December 2012. The contractor's innovative Continuous Injection System (CIS) incorporated "green" and sustainable technologies and practices. A slow injection rate was maintained autonomously by the CIS, eliminating the need for multiple mobilizations of personnel and powered equipment. The CIS was calibrated to deliver only as much reagent as the formation would accept without "short circuiting", minimizing material waste. Public utility water pressure was used to mix, dilute, and inject the reagent. NASA personnel were trained to operate and maintain the system and remote monitoring and injection control capabilities were developed, further reducing the need for contractor mobilizations to the site. An integrated solar photovoltaic panel was used to power the control valves and web monitoring telemetry. SSC provided hydrogen peroxide for the process using their existing supplier for the aboveground pump and treat systems. The only consumable required from the contractor was their proprietary activator to catalyze SSC's peroxide.

  13. Measurement Decision Risk - The Importance of Definitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mimbs, Scott M.

    2008-01-01

    One of the more misunderstood areas of metrology is the Test Uncertainty Ratio (TUR) and the Test Accuracy Ratio (TAR). There have been many definitions over the years, but why are these definitions important to a discussion on measurement decision risk? The importance lies in the clarity of communication. Problems can immediately arise in the application (or misapplication) of the definition of these terms. In other words, while it is important to understand the definitions, it is more important to understand concepts behind the definitions and to be precise in how they are applied. The objective of any measurement is a decision. Measurement Decision Risk is a way to look at the quality of a measurement, and although it is not a new concept, it has generated a lot of attention since its addition as a requirement in the new U.S. National Standard, ANSIINCSL Z540.3-2006. In addition to Measurement Decision Risk as the prime method of managing measurement risk, Z540.3 has added, as a fall-back, an explicit definition for TUR. The impact these new requirements may have on calibration service providers has become the topic of much discussion and in some cases concern. This paper will look at the concepts behind the definitions and how they relate to Measurement Decision Risk. Using common examples, this paper will also provide a comparison of various elements of risk related to measurement science using the concepts of TAR, TUR, accuracy ratios, and Consumer Risk (False Accept Risk). The goal of this paper is to provide a better understanding of their relevance to the measurement decision process.

  14. On representing claims for coherent risk measures

    CERN Document Server

    Jacka, Saul

    2007-01-01

    We consider the problem of representing claims for coherent risk measures. For this purpose we introduce the concept of (weak and strong) time-consistency with respect to a portfolio of assets, generalizing the one defined by Delbaen. In a similar way we extend the notion of m-stability, by introducing weak and strong versions. We then prove that the two concepts of m-stability and time-consistency are still equivalent, thus giving necessary and sufficient conditions for a coherent risk measure to be represented by a market with proportional transaction costs. We go on to deduce that, under a separability assumption, any coherent risk measure is strongly time-consistent with respect to a suitably chosen countable portfolio, and show the converse: that any market with proportional transaction costs is equivalent to a market priced by a coherent risk measure, essentially establishing the equivalence of the two concepts.

  15. On a relationship between distorted and spectral risk measures

    OpenAIRE

    Henryk, Gzyl; Silvia, Mayoral

    2006-01-01

    We study the relationship between two widely used risk measures, the spectral measures and the distortion risk measures. In both cases, the risk measure can be thought of as a re-weighting of some initial distribution. We prove that spectral risk measures are equivalent to distorted risk pricing measures, or equivalently, spectral risk functions are related to distortion functions. Besides that we prove that distorted measures are absolutely continuous with respect to the original measure. Th...

  16. Measurements of risk in fisheries management

    OpenAIRE

    Stewart, T. J.

    2014-01-01

    An important goal in many fisheries management problems is perceived to be minimisation of risk. This paper examines the problem of measuring risk by means of meaningful attributes or surrogate measures, for use in multiple criteria decision support systems. It is found that exponential utility functions, which are associated in this context with geometric discounting of the future, give a poor fit in many cases relative to power functions. The implication is that conventional mean-variance m...

  17. Intelligent system for risk mitigation Sistema Inteligente de Mitigación de Riesgos.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadira Ruiz Constanten

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available the accumulation of experiences in project design, and the emergence of standards organizations and engaged in planning and administration of the same, have allowed their development has become an activity planned and controlled. Risk management during the life cycle of software development is a complex process closely linked to the domain with the development team on the subject. In its correct management will depend largely on the results, taking into account both technological advantages for the team will bring economic development, mitigating them. To have a tool that automates this, streamline the decision-making process, is essential. In Artificial Intelligence there are different knowledge-based techniques that allow solution of problems in different ways. One of the most common techniques is knowledge Based Systems, which are computer systems that use domain knowledge to solve problems pertaining to this. This solution is essentially the same as that obtained by a person experienced in the problem domain. It is of great importance to use the advantages provided by this type of systems for developing applications to streamline the process of managing risks. To this will be discussed in this article, showing that facilitates the use of minimal resources and higher quality.

    La acumulación de experiencias en la concepción de proyectos, el surgimiento de organizaciones y estándares dedicados a la planificación y administración de los mismos, han permitido que su desarrollo se haya convertido en una actividad planificada y controlada. La gestión de riesgos es un proceso complejo estrechamente vinculado al dominio que tenga el equipo de desarrollo sobre el tema. De su correcta gestión dependerán gran parte de los resultados, teniendo en cuenta las ventajas que tanto tecnológicas como económicas reportará para el equipo de desarrollo la mitigación de los mismos. Los riesgos han de analizarse para propiciar el aprovechamiento de las diversas oportunidades que puedan ofrecer y de la misma forma, evitar que sean muy severos e irreparables, los daños que puedan provocar. Los sistemas basados en casos (SBC ayudan y agilizan la toma de decisiones simulando las cadenas de razonamiento que realiza un experto para resolver un problema de su dominio. Su vinculación con distintos elementos del proceso de desarrollo de software posibilita la obtención de resultados más acertados a partir del conocimiento que se les introduce basado en la experiencia acumulada. Actualmente el centro de Informatización para la Seguridad Ciudadana ISEC, ha enfrentado dificultades para una rápida y acertada gestión de riesgos. La utilización de las facilidades que brindan los SBC para la gestión de riesgos resultaría ventajoso al brindar las herramientas necesarias para que los líderes de proyecto, basados en experiencias anteriores, realicen una planificación más acertada, teniendo en cuenta los diversos contratiempos que pudieran surgir.

  18. Lessons Learnt and Mitigation Measures for the CERN LHC Equipment with RF fingers

    CERN Document Server

    Métral, E; Assmann, R W; Baglin, V; Barnes, M J; Berrig, O E; Bertarelli, A; Bregliozzi, G; Calatroni, S; Carra, F; Caspers, F; Day, H A; Ferro-Luzzi, M; Gallilee, M A; Garion, C; Garlasche, M; Grudiev, A; Jimenez, J M; Jones, R; Kononenko, O; Losito, R; Nougaret, J L; Parma, V; Redaelli, S; Salvant, B; Strubin, P; Veness, R; Vollinger, C; Weterings, W

    2013-01-01

    Beam-induced RF heating has been observed in several LHC components when the bunch/beam intensity was increased and/or the bunch length reduced. In particular eight bellows, out of the ten double-bellow modules present in the machine in 2011, were found with the spring, which should keep the RF fingers in good electrical contact with the central insert, broken. Following these observations, the designs of all the components of the LHC equipped with RF fingers have been reviewed. The lessons learnt and mitigation measures are presented in this paper.

  19. Benthic community recovery from brine impact after the implementation of mitigation measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del-Pilar-Ruso, Yoana; Martinez-Garcia, Elena; Giménez-Casalduero, Francisca; Loya-Fernández, Angel; Ferrero-Vicente, Luis Miguel; Marco-Méndez, Candela; de-la-Ossa-Carretero, Jose Antonio; Sánchez-Lizaso, José Luis

    2015-03-01

    In many regions, seawater desalination is a growing industry that has its impact on benthic communities. This study analyses the effect on benthic communities of a mitigation measure applied to a brine discharge, using polychaete assemblages as indicator. An eight-year study was conducted at San Pedro del Pinatar (SE Spain) establishing a grid of 12 sites at a depth range of 29-38 m during autumn. Brine discharge started in 2006 and produced a significant decrease in abundance, richness and diversity of polychaete families at the location closest to the discharge, where salinity reached 49. In 2010, a diffuser was deployed at the end of the pipeline in order to increase the mixing, to reduce the impact on benthic communities. After implementation of this mitigation measure, the salinity measured close to discharge was less than 38.5 and a significant recovery in polychaete richness and diversity was detected, to levels similar to those before the discharge. A less evident recovery in abundance was also observed, probably due to different recovery rates of polychaete families. Some families like Paraonidae and Magelonidae were more tolerant to this impact. Others like Syllidae and Capitellidae recovered quickly, although still affected by the discharge, while some families such as Sabellidae and Cirratulidae appeared to recover more slowly. PMID:25543242

  20. The costs and efficacy of sediment mitigation measures for representative farm types across England and Wales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, A. L.; Zhang, Y.; Naden, P.

    2015-03-01

    A major collaborative research project in the UK is delivering new science to support improved targeting of on-farm pollution mitigation measures for the benefit of freshwater ecology. One important aspect of the project concerns a national scale evaluation of the costs and efficacy of packages of sediment mitigation measures which can be delivered over and above the existing implementation of abatement through various policy instruments including advice and new targeted agri-environment schemes. The assessment includes typical farm types present across England and Wales. Outputs from this assessment of costs and efficacy will eventually be used to help model the potential for closing the sediment pollution gap in those water bodies currently failing water quality targets due to sediment loss from agriculture. Some preliminary uncertainty ranges in costs (-£146,402 to £175,631) and effectiveness (0-80%) associated with a potential policy scenario implementing a large number (up to 93) of abatement measures at 95% uptake are presented in this paper.

  1. Hard Sludge Formation in Modern Steam Generators of Nuclear Power Plants Formation, Risks and Mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strohmer, F.

    2013-07-01

    This article will discuss the physical and chemical reasons for the increased tendency to form hard sludge on the secondary side of modern nuclear steam generators (SG). The mechanism of hard sludge induced denting will be explained. Moreover, advice on operation and maintenance to mitigate hard sludge formation and denting damages will be presented.

  2. Assessment of human thermal comfort and mitigation measures in different urban climatotopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, N.; Kuttler, W.

    2012-04-01

    This study analyses thermal comfort in the model city of Oberhausen as an example for the densely populated metropolitan region Ruhr, Germany. As thermal loads increase due to climate change negative impacts especially for city dwellers will arise. Therefore mitigation strategies should be developed and considered in urban planning today to prevent future thermal stress. The method consists of the combination of in-situ measurements and numerical model simulations. So in a first step the actual thermal situation is determined and then possible mitigation strategies are derived. A measuring network was installed in eight climatotopes for a one year period recording air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and wind direction. Based on these parameters the human thermal comfort in terms of physiological equivalent temperature (PET) was calculated by RayMan Pro software. Thus the human comfort of different climatotopes was determined. Heat stress in different land uses varies, so excess thermal loads in urban areas could be detected. Based on the measuring results mitigation strategies were developed, such as increasing areas with high evaporation capacity (green areas and water bodies). These strategies were implemented as different plan scenarios in the microscale urban climate model ENVI-met. The best measure should be identified by comparing the range and effect of these scenarios. Simulations were run in three of the eight climatotopes (city center, suburban and open land site) to analyse the effectiveness of the mitigation strategies in several land use structures. These cover the range of values of all eight climatotopes and therefore provide representative results. In the model area of 21 ha total, the modified section in the different plan scenarios was 1 ha. Thus the effect of small-scale changes could be analysed. Such areas can arise due to population decline and structural changes and hold conversion potential. Emphasis was also laid on analysing the effectiveness of water bodies, which need further research in contrast to well analysed vegetation areas. Results show different thermal loads in the miscellaneous climatotopes due to land use structures. Both measurements and model simulations demonstrate the positive effect on thermal comfort due to augmentation of areas with high evaporation capacity. These effects can be especially well detected in summer, when heat stress is most pronounced. The measurement based PET calculations show a maximum difference of 4 K PET between inner city and open land site in summer nights. Simulation results overall present a PET reduction of 1-3 K. The average PET reduction in the city center site is about 2 K, while the maximum reduction in the suburban site can exceed 5 K. In urban areas parks are particularly advisable as mitigation measure, because they reduce thermal stress both by tree shading and evapotranspiration.

  3. Observational studies in South African mines to mitigate seismic risks: implications for mine safety and tectonic earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durrheim, Raymond; Ogaswara, Hiroshi; Nakatani, Masao; Yabe, Yasuo; Milev, Alexander; Cichowicz, Artur; Kawakata, Hironori; Moriya, Hirokazu; Naoi, Makoto; Kgarume, Thabang; Murakami, Osamu; Mngadi, Siyanda

    2014-05-01

    Seismicity poses a significant risk to workers in deep and overstressed mines, such as the gold mines in the Witwatersrand basin of South Africa, as well as inhabitants of earthquake-prone regions such as Japan. A 5-year collaborative project entitled "Observational studies in South African mines to mitigate seismic risks" was launched in 2010 to address these risks, drawing on over a century of South African and Japanese research experience with respect to mining-related and tectonic earthquakes, respectively. The project has three main aims: (1) to learn more about earthquake preparation and triggering mechanisms by deploying arrays of sensitive sensors within rock volumes where mining is likely to induce seismic activity; (2) to learn more about earthquake rupture and rockburst damage phenomena by deploying robust strong ground motion sensors close to potential fault zones and on stope hangingwalls; and (3) to upgrade the South African surface national seismic network in the mining districts. Research sites have been established at mines operated by Sibanye Gold (Hlanganani Shaft and Cooke #4 Shaft) and Anglogold Ashanti (Moab-Khotsong). More than 70 boreholes (totalling more than 2.8 km in length) have been drilled to locate "capable" faults i.e. faults that are considered likely to become seismically active as a result of mining activity and to deploy sensors. Acoustic emission sensors, strain- and tilt meters, and controlled seismic sources were installed to monitor the deformation of the rock mass, the accumulation of damage during the earthquake preparation phase, and changes in dynamic stress produced by the propagation of the rupture front. These data are being integrated with measurements of rock properties, stope closure, stope strong motion, seismic data recorded by the mine-wide network, and stress modelling. The mid-point of the 5-year project has passed. New observations of stress and the response of the rock mass to mining have already been made, and many more are expected in the next two years as the mining front sweeps through the monitoring arrays. We will describe examples of technology adaptation and transfer, as well as preliminary research findings. The strain cell and associated tools required for the compact conical-ended borehole overcoring (CCBO) technique, which determines the 3D stress tensor by a single overcoring of a strain cell, have been reduced to the core size used in South African mines. This modified method was tested at three sites, where it was demonstrated that three overcoring measurements can be made within two shifts. A large number of acoustic emission (AE) sensors were installed at Cooke #4 mine. In the period from 30 September to 5 October in 2011 the monitoring system automatically located 40,555 AE, some of which were located by Moriya et al. using the joint hypocenter location method. Moriya et al. applied the multiplet and the double-difference analysis to the selected multiplets, successfully delineating multiple planar structures. Ultimately we hope that this project will produce knowledge and technology that will reduce the risk posed by both mining-induced and tectonic earthquakes

  4. Soil physical conditions as livestock treading effect in tropical Agroecosystem of dryland and strategies to mitigate desertification risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florentino, A.; Torres, D.; Ospina, A.; Contreras, J.; Palma, Z.; Silvera, J.

    2012-04-01

    Soil degradation in natural ecosystem of arid and semi-arid zones of Venezuela due to livestock treading (goats) it is an important problem that affect their environment functions; increase soil erodibility, bulk density, water losses and reduce porosity, water infiltration rate and soil structural stability. The presence of biological crust (BSC) in this type of soil it is very common. The objective of this study was to evaluate the soil surface physical quality through the use of selected indicators, mainly some of that related to structural stability, infiltrability and the prediction of soil erosion risk in two zones of Lara state: 1) Quíbor (QUI) and 2) Humocaro Bajo (HB). The study was conducted on two selected plots (30 m x 20 m) in each zone, with natural vegetation and BSC cover, with areas affected by different degree of compaction due to treading in the paths where the goats are moving. Five sites per plot (50 cm x 50 cm) under vegetation cover and five sites over the path with bare soil were sampled (0-7,5 and 7,5-15 cm depth). The results showed that soil macroaggregate stability (equivalent diameter of aggregates >0,25 mm) was significantly higher (psoil with vegetation cover and BSC compared with bare soil. Sealing index, as a measure of aggregate stability, determined in laboratory under simulated rain and expressed as hydraulic conductivity of soil surface sealing (Kse), decreased with decreasing soil vegetation cover and the presence of BSC. However, Ksei (i: inicial) and Ksef (f: final) were significantly greater in soil with more than 75 % of BSC in comparison to bare soils. The sealing index it is used to for to estimate changes in soil water losses. As the sealing index increases, the susceptibility of the soil to undergo surface sealing or slaking decrease. These results suggested that soil physical properties are potential indicators of soil quality with regard to soil erodibility and showed that soils under vegetation cover had higher quality level than bare soils. Some predictive regression equation had a high R2 value and was a useful tool for to evaluate the risk of extreme climatic changes and to mitigate their detrimental effects. We conclude that the global climatic change (CCG) will have a negative effect on these agroecosystems functions, mainly in soil and water conservation, carbon sequestration, and productivity. Natural recovery of soil physical properties from treading damage of pastoral soils will be possible in the future with the implementation of soil management strategies, mainly through re-vegetation and recuperation of the BSC. Key word: Soil structure; aggregate stability; soil sealing index; hydraulic conductivity of surface sealing.

  5. Engineering Biochar Hydrophobicity to Mitigate Risk of Top-Soil Erosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinney, T. J.; Dean, M. R.; Hockaday, W. C.; Masiello, C. A.

    2009-12-01

    The pyrolysis of biomass is a net carbon negative method of sequestering atmospheric carbon as recalcitrant black carbon. The resulting solid product, called biochar, is likely to improve agricultural soils when used as a soil conditioner in sustainable land management practice. Biochar has been shown to improve crop yields, improve water-holding capacity in sandy soils, increase cation exchange capacity (CEC), and retain nutrients from fertilization longer than soils unamended with biochar. Biochar undoubtedly has high potential as both a carbon management tool and a tool to increase global food production. However, little is understood about possible side effects of biochar in agricultural soils such as ecosystem toxicity, interactions with biota, and modification of soil hydrologic properties, such as permeability. The hydrophobicity of a soil determines how easily precipitation can permeate soil pores. Water that fails to permeate is redirected as runoff, responsible for the detachment and transport of nutrient-rich topsoil particles. Mitigating top-soil erosion is an important aspect of sustainable land management. Biochar, primarily composed of condensed aromatic structures, is a hydrophobic material and incorporating it into agricultural soils may act to alter soil hydrology through multiple avenues. These include a likely increase in soil water-holding capacity (a positive outcome) and a potential increase in soil hydrophobicity (a negative outcome). In an effort to understand how to engineer reduced biochar hydrophobicity, we investigated the hydrophobicity of biochars as a function of biomass feedstock, pyrolysis temperatures, and post-pyrolysis chemical treatments. We used Water Drop Penetration Time (WDPT) and Molarity of an Ethanol Drop (MED) tests to measure hydrophobicity, and FTIR, CPMAS-NMR, and N2-BET to probe the surface chemistry, bulk chemistry, and surface area of various biochars, respectively. We used post-pyrolysis chemical treatments of biochar to study the origin of biochar hydrophobicity and to assess the possibility of reducing hydrophobicity prior to soil amendment. We used correlative analysis to study the relationship between hydrophobicity, biomass and pyrolysis characteristics, as well as chemical treatments. Future work will focus on engineering designer biochars which minimize hydrophobicity while maximizing positive benefits, such as ion exchange capacity.

  6. The instability of downside risk measures

    OpenAIRE

    Varga-haszonits, Istvan; Kondor, Imre

    2008-01-01

    We study the feasibility and noise sensitivity of portfolio optimization under some downside risk measures (Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and semivariance) when they are estimated by fitting a parametric distribution on a finite sample of asset returns. We find that the existence of the optimum is a probabilistic issue, depending on the particular random sample, in all three cases. At a critical combination of the parameters of these problems we find an algorithmic phas...

  7. Risk measures with non-Gaussian fluctuations

    CERN Document Server

    Bormetti, G; Montagna, G; Nicrosini, O

    2006-01-01

    Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modeling the power-law tails of the returns distribution in terms of a Student-$t$ (or Tsallis) distribution. Non-Gaussian closed-form solutions for Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall are obtained and standard formulae known in the literature under the normality assumption are recovered as a special case. The implications of the approach for risk management are demonstrated through an empirical analysis of financial time series from the Italian stock market. Detailed comparison with the results of the widely used procedures of quantitative finance, such as parametric normal approach, RiskMetrics methodology and historical simulation, as well as with previous findings in the literature, are shown and commented. Particular attention is paid to quantify the size of the errors affecting the risk measures obtaine...

  8. Money Matters: Mitigating risk to spark private investments in energy efficiency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    Scaling-up investment in energy efficiency is essential to achieving a sustainable energy future. Despite energy efficiency's recognised advantages as a bankable investment with immense climate change mitigation benefits, most of the energy efficiency potential remains untapped and the investment gap to achieve climate goals is tremendous. This report seeks to improve understanding as to why this is so, and what can be done about it.

  9. Soil bio-engineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area

    OpenAIRE

    Petrone, A.; Preti, F.

    2009-01-01

    The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on authochtonal plants suitable for this kind of works and on economic efficiency is essential for the divulgation of such techniques. The present paper is focused on this two issues related to the realization of various typologies of soil bio-engineering works in the humid tropic of Nicaragua.


    ...

  10. Analysis of hydrogen risk mitigation with passive autocatalytic recombiner system in CPR1000 NPP during a hypothetical station blackout

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ? We analyze the hydrogen risk in CPR1000 during station blackout with GASFLOW code. ? Hydrogen detonation likely occurs during the accident. ? Application of PAR system could eliminate the hydrogen risk. ? The condensation model with McAdams correlation performs better in validation work. ? It predicts the hydrogen risk conservatively in some compartments. - Abstract: Hydrogen safety has attracted extensive concern in severe accident analysis especially after the Fukushima accident. In this study, a similar station blackout as happened in Fukushima accident is simulated for CPR1000 nuclear power plant (NPP) model, with the computational fluid dynamic code GASFLOW. The hydrogen risk is analyzed with the assessment of efficiency of passive autocatalytic recombiner (PAR) system. The numerical results show that the CPR1000 containment may be damaged by global flame acceleration (FA) and local detonation caused by hydrogen combustion if no hydrogen mitigation system (HMS) is applied. A new condensation model is developed and validated in this study for the consideration of natural circulation flow pattern and presence of non-condensable gases. The new condensation model is more conservative in hydrogen risk evaluation than the current model in some compartments, giving earlier starting time of deflagration to detonation transition (DDT). The results also indicate that the PAR system installed in CPR1000 could prevent the occurrence of the FA and DDT.he occurrence of the FA and DDT. Therefore, HMS such as PAR system is suggested to be applied in NPPs to avoid the radioactive leak caused by containment failure.

  11. Quantitative Measures of Mineral Supply Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, K. R.

    2009-12-01

    Almost all metals and many non-metallic minerals are traded internationally. An advantage of global mineral markets is that minerals can be obtained from the globally lowest-cost source. For example, one rare-earth element (REE) mine in China, Bayan Obo, is able to supply most of world demand for rare earth elements at a cost significantly less than its main competitors. Concentration of global supplies at a single mine raises significant political risks, illustrated by China’s recent decision to prohibit the export of some REEs and severely limit the export of others. The expected loss of REE supplies will have a significant impact on the cost and production of important national defense technologies and on alternative energy programs. Hybrid vehicles and wind-turbine generators, for example, require REEs for magnets and batteries. Compact fluorescent light bulbs use REE-based phosphors. These recent events raise the general issue of how to measure the degree of supply risk for internationally sourced minerals. Two factors, concentration of supply and political risk, must first be addressed. Concentration of supply can be measured with standard economic tools for measuring industry concentration, using countries rather than firms as the unit of analysis. There are many measures of political risk available. That of the OECD is a measure of a country’s commitment to rule-of-law and enforcement of contracts, as well as political stability. Combining these measures provides a comparative view of mineral supply risk across commodities and identifies several minerals other than REEs that could suddenly become less available. Combined with an assessment of the impact of a reduction in supply, decision makers can use these measures to prioritize risk reduction efforts.

  12. Portfolio Optimization with Spectral Measures of Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Carlo, Acerbi; Prospero, Simonetti

    2002-01-01

    We study Spectral Measures of Risk from the perspective of portfolio optimization. We derive exact results which extend to general Spectral Measures M_phi the Pflug--Rockafellar--Uryasev methodology for the minimization of alpha--Expected Shortfall. The minimization problem of a spectral measure is shown to be equivalent to the minimization of a suitable function which contains additional parameters, but displays analytical properties (piecewise linearity and convexity in al...

  13. Raptor mortality in wind farms of southern Spain: mitigation measures on a major migration bottleneck area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gallego, Antonio-Roman Munoz; Lucas, Manuela De; Casado, Eva; Ferrer, Miguel

    2011-07-01

    Full text: To assess and monitor the impact of wind farms on fauna is crucial if we want to achieve ecologically sustainable development of this renewable energy resource. Today there are clear evidences that the probability of raptor collision depends critically on species behaviour and weather conditions, and the topographic factors related to each windmill. In our study area EIA were not able to predict this differential risk and in these circumstances mitigating the causes of bird mortality becomes a task of major importance, especially to those wind farms located in the Strait of Gibraltar, a water crossing of 14 km at its shortest distance acting as a major migration bottleneck for Paleo-African soaring migrants. We collected all available information on raptor collision from 1992, when the first wind farm was installed, and from 2005 until present a total of 262 turbines, grouped into 20 wind farms, were surveyed in a daily basis through a surveillance program with the main goal of register the actual mortality of birds. A total of 1291 raptors of 19 species were found of which 78.5% correspond to two species, the griffon vulture (Gyps fulvus) and the kestrel (Falco tinnunculus). In order to mitigate the impact on raptors, and particularly on the griffon vulture, in 2007 a program based on selective stopping of turbines was imposed, in collaboration with the environmental competent authority, on new approved projects. During 2008 there was a reduction in mortality by 48%, which remained in 2009 with a remarkably lower economic cost. An analysis of the temporal collision patterns will be presented and discussed, with special attention to those species suffering higher mortality rate, and to those who have some degree of threat. (Author)

  14. Evaluation of possible mitigation measures to prevent introduction and spread of African swine fever virus through wild boar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    European Food Safety Authority

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This scientific report has been prepared in response to a request for urgent scientific and technical assistance under Art 31 of Regulation (EC No 178/2002, in relation to possible mitigation measures to prevent introduction and spread of African swine fever virus (ASFV. It was requested to assess the feasibility to drastically reduce the wild boar population by hunting or by the use of traps, and to assess if prevention of movement of wild boars by feeding or by artificial physical barriers reduces the risk of spread of ASFV. No evidence was found in scientific literature proving that wild boar populations can be drastically reduced by hunting or trapping in Europe. The main reasons are the adaptive behaviour of wild boar, compensatory growth of the population and the possible influx of wild boar from adjacent areas. Thus, drastic hunting is not a tool to reduce the risk for introduction and spread of ASFV in wild boar populations. Furthermore, wild boar density thresholds for introduction, spread and persistence of ASFV in the wild boar populations are currently impossible to establish, due to the uncertainty regarding the extent of the spread and maintenance of ASFV, the biases in population datasets, the complex population structures and dynamics. Furthermore, attempts to drastically reduce wild boar populations may even increase transmission and facilitate progressive geographical spread of ASFV, since intensive hunting pressure on wild boar populations leads to dispersion of groups and individuals. Artificial feeding of wild boar might increase the risk of ASFV spread. Fencing can restrict wild boar movements, however further knowledge of the ASF epidemiology and spatial distribution of wild boar is required to identify the areas where fencing could be used as one possible element of a control programme and to assess the feasibility of its implementation.

  15. Radon mitigation in private dwellings. Summary of measures under the National Action Plan against Cancer in Norway 1999-2003

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The report summarizes the remedial measurements carried out under the National Action Plan against Cancer in Norway in the period 1999-2003.The cost effectiveness of the state subsidized remedial measures against radon is evaluated. Other measurements under the National Action Plan against Cancer have also been evaluated, such as measurements of radon in 38.000 dwellings in 158 municipalities, information measures, and actions to increase radon mitigation competence in the building construction industry and in the municipalities. (Author)

  16. Risk mitigation process for utilization of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) parts in CCD camera for military applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Anees; Batcheldor, Scott; Cannon, Steven C.; Roberts, Thomas E.

    2002-09-01

    This paper presents the lessons learned during the design and development of a high performance cooled CCD camera for military applications utilizing common commercial off the shelf (COTS) parts. Our experience showed that concurrent evaluation and testing of high risk COTS must be performed to assess their performance over the required temperature range and other special product requirements such as fuel vapor compatibility, EMI and shock susceptibility, etc. Technical, cost and schedule risks for COTS parts must also be carefully evaluated. The customer must be involved in the selection and evaluation of such parts so that the performance limitations of the selected parts are clearly understood. It is equally important to check with vendors on the availability and obsolescence of the COTS parts being considered since the electronic components are often replaced by newer, better and cheaper models in a couple of years. In summary, this paper addresses the major benefits and risks associated with using commercial and industrial parts in military products, and suggests a risk mitigation approach to ensure a smooth development phase, and predictable performance from the end product.

  17. Policies, measures and the monitoring needs of forest sector carbon mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forest sector mitigation options can be grouped into three categories: (1) management for carbon (C) conservation, (2) management for C storage, and (3) management for C conservation and sequestration worldwide and the average costs of achieving it. It reviews policy measures that have been successfully applied at regional and project levels toward reduction of atmospheric greenhouse gases. It also describes both national programs and jointly implemented international activities. The monitoring methods, and the items to monitor, differ across these categories. Remote sensing is a good approach for the monitoring of C conservation, but not for C substitution, which requires estimation of the fossil fuels that would be displaced and the continued monitoring of electricity generation sources. C storage, on the other hand, includes C in products which may be traded internationally. Their monitoring will require that bi- or multi-lateral protocols be set up for this purpose. 1 fig., 4 tabs., 23 refs

  18. Effectiveness of radon mitigation measures in 12 houses 10 years after implementation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Results are presented of radon concentrations in 12 houses 10 years after radon mitigation measures were implemented to reduce elevated radon concentrations in the houses. The houses were part of an earlier radon research project in which the home-owners received remediation advice from radon researchers, and a single contractor carried out the reduction measures. Remediation in nine of the houses was principally by installing an internal sump, in another by installing an external sump, in one by ventilating the crawl-space under the house, and one house had had a naturally ventilated sump system built into the house and later had a fan installed to increase the sub-lab depressurisation. The measurements showed that ten years after radon reduction measurers were implemented, only 3 of 12 houses had radon concentrations under the present-day action level of 200 Bq m-3 (5.4 pCi l-1) in Norway. The results suggest that radon levels should be measured at periodic intervals after remediation, perhaps once every five years, to ensure that concentrations continue to be at acceptable levels. (author)

  19. New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsk Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX): A research program towards mitigating multiple hazards and risks in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, K. M.; Zschau, J.; Gasparini, P.; Modaressi, H.; Matrix Consortium

    2011-12-01

    Scientists, engineers, civil protection and disaster managers typically treat natural hazards and risks individually. This leads to the situation where the frequent causal relationships between the different hazards and risks, e.g., earthquakes and volcanos, or floods and landslides, are ignored. Such an oversight may potentially lead to inefficient mitigation planning. As part of their efforts to confront this issue, the European Union, under its FP7 program, is supporting the New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe or MATRIX project. The focus of MATRIX is on natural hazards, in particular earthquakes, landslides, volcanos, wild fires, storms and fluvial and coastal flooding. MATRIX will endeavour to develop methods and tools to tackle multi-type natural hazards and risks within a common framework, focusing on methodologies that are suited to the European context. The work will involve an assessment of current single-type hazard and risk assessment methodologies, including a comparison and quantification of uncertainties and harmonization of single-type methods, examining the consequence of cascade effects within a multi-hazard environment, time-dependent vulnerability, decision making and support for multi-hazard mitigation and adaption, and a series of test cases. Three test sites are being used to assess the methods developed within the project (Naples, Cologne, and the French West Indies), as well as a "virtual city" based on a comprehensive IT platform that will allow scenarios not represented by the test cases to be examined. In addition, a comprehensive dissemination program that will involve national platforms for disaster management, as well as various outreach activities, will be undertaken. The MATRIX consortium consists of ten research institutions (nine European and one Canadian), an end-user (i.e., one of the European national platforms for disaster reduction) and a partner from industry.

  20. Concave risk measures in international capital regulation

    CERN Document Server

    Kondor, I; Ujvarosi, T; Kondor, Imre; Szepessy, Andras; Ujvarosi, Tunde

    2003-01-01

    We show that some specific market risk measures implied by current international capital regulation (the Basel Accords and the Capital Adequacy Directive of the European Union) violate the obvious requirement of convexity in some regions in the space of portfolio weights.

  1. The role of the connectivity in the implementation of mitigation measures to reduce the impact of pesticides in the environment under Mediterranean conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Getino García, Ana Patricia; Alonso Prados, Elena; Alonso Prados, José Luis

    2014-05-01

    Regulation 1107/2009 of the European Commission, establishes the procedure and criteria for approval of active substances and authorization of plant protection products in Europe. One of the aspects to be considered is the assessment of the fate and behavior in the environment of pesticides In this assessment a tiered modeling approach is followed according to the models and scenarios developed by the FOrum for the Co-ordination of pesticide fate models and Their USe, (named as FOCUS models/scenarios). They consider different European scenarios to determine the predicted environmental concentration (PEC) in soil, ground water, surface water and sediment at in-field or edge-of-field scales. During the evaluation process, it is frequent to establish different mitigation measures to reduce the impact of pesticides and to ensure an acceptable risk to non-target species. Parallel to this regulatory process, the directive of sustainable use of pesticides (Directive 2009/128/EC) establishes a framework to reduce the impact of use of pesticides where the implementation of mitigation measures to protect aquatic systems and vulnerable areas will play a main role. Therefore, there is a main need to assess how the risk mitigation measures established at field level under regulation 1107/2009 are acting at landscape/catchment level. The characteristics of the climate, relief and soils in Mediterranean region provoke that soil erosion by water is common at different scales. In arable lands soil rates due to inter-rill, rill and gully erosion may exceed 10 ton/ha/year. This process may be modified by human actions. In this scheme, connectivity concept emerges as essential to understand the transfer process of surface water, sediment and micropollutants throughout catchments and the success of the implemented measures for the sustainable management of pesticides at different scales (field, landscape and catchment levels). In this work a review of published monitoring programs of pesticides (in soil, surface waters and ground waters) in different Mediterranean regions is presented in order to establish the basis to link the connectivity concept with the implementation of risk mitigation programs under these environmental conditions.

  2. Final Report for the ZERT Project: Basic Science of Retention Issues, Risk Assessment & Measurement, Monitoring and Verification for Geologic Sequestration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spangler, Lee; Cunningham, Alfred; Lageson, David; Melick, Jesse; Gardner, Mike; Dobeck, Laura; Repasky, Kevin; Shaw, Joseph; Bajura, Richard; McGrail, B Peter; Oldenburg, Curtis M; Wagoner, Jeff; Pawar, Rajesh

    2011-03-31

    ZERT has made major contributions to five main areas of sequestration science: improvement of computational tools; measurement and monitoring techniques to verify storage and track migration of CO{sub 2}; development of a comprehensive performance and risk assessment framework; fundamental geophysical, geochemical and hydrological investigations of CO{sub 2} storage; and investigate innovative, bio-based mitigation strategies.

  3. Risk assessment and causal preventive measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lussi, Adrian; Hellwig, Elmar

    2014-01-01

    A prerequisite for preventive measures is to diagnose erosive tooth wear and to evaluate the different etiological factors in order to identify persons at risk. No diagnostic device is available for the assessment of erosive defects. Thus, they can only be detected clinically. Consequently, erosion not diagnosed at an early stage may render timely preventive measures difficult. In order to assess the risk factors, patients should record their dietary intake for a distinct period of time. Then a dentist can determine the erosive potential of the diet. A table with common beverages and foodstuffs is presented for judging the erosive potential. Particularly, patients with more than 4 dietary acid intakes have a higher risk for erosion when other risk factors are present. Regurgitation of gastric acids is a further important risk factor for the development of erosion which has to be taken into account. Based on these analyses, an individually tailored preventive program may be suggested to the patients. It may comprise dietary advice, use of calcium-enriched beverages, optimization of prophylactic regimes, stimulation of salivary flow rate, use of buffering medicaments and particular motivation for nondestructive toothbrushing habits with an erosive-protecting toothpaste as well as rinsing solutions. Since erosion and abrasion often occur simultaneously, all of the causative components must be taken into consideration when planning preventive strategies but only those important and feasible for an individual should be communicated to the patient. PMID:24993270

  4. Ultrasonic Cross-Correlation Flow Measurement: Theory, Noise Contamination Mechanisms, and a Noise Mitigation Technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on past experience with ultrasonic cross-correlation flow meters in power plant environments, the presence of spatially correlated noise due to pressure waves, vibration, or sources other than transport of turbulent eddies will cause a bias in the time delays measured by the meter. Several techniques were developed to detect the existence of such correlated noise and correct for its effect at plant conditions. An analytical and experimental investigation was performed to further understand the basic physics of the noise mechanisms. The dominant error mechanisms investigated in this work were speed of sound perturbations due to pressure fluctuations and beam path length changes due to wall vibration. An analytical model was formulated which estimates the signal level of the flow meter based on the turbulent velocity field. From this model, an estimate of the system noise which would cause contamination could be determined. A test at a water tunnel facility was performed in order to evaluate the noise mechanisms. During this test, measurements were taken with and without controlled noise sources. Pressure and acceleration measurements were used to evaluate a coherent noise removal technique developed to mitigate the impact of noise in the ultrasonic cross-correlation flow measurement. The coherent noise removal technique was shown to be effective in removing noise during the water tunnel test. (authors)

  5. Mitigation of the Impact of Terrestrial Contamination on Organic Measurements from the Mars Science Laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    ten Kate, Inge L.; Canham, John S.; Conrad, Pamela G.; Errigo, Therese; Katz, Ira; Mahaffy, Paul R.

    2008-06-01

    The objective of the 2009 Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), which is planned to follow the Mars Exploration Rovers and the Phoenix lander to the surface of Mars, is to explore and assess quantitatively a site on Mars as a potential habitat for present or past life. Specific goals include an assessment of the past or present biological potential of the target environment and a characterization of its geology and geochemistry. Included in the 10 investigations of the MSL rover is the Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instrument suite, which is designed to obtain trace organic measurements, measure water and other volatiles, and measure several light isotopes with experiment sequences designed for both atmospheric and solid-phase samples. SAM integrates a gas chromatograph, a mass spectrometer, and a tunable laser spectrometer supported by sample manipulation tools both within and external to the suite. The sub part-per-billion sensitivity of the suite for trace species, particularly organic molecules, along with a mobile platform that will contain many kilograms of organic materials, presents a considerable challenge due to the potential for terrestrial contamination to mask the signal of martian organics. We describe the effort presently underway to understand and mitigate, wherever possible within the resource constraints of the mission, terrestrial contamination in MSL and SAM measurements.

  6. Identifying robust large-scale flood risk mitigation strategies: A quasi-2D hydraulic model as a tool for the Po river

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellarin, Attilio; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Brath, Armando

    2011-01-01

    This paper focuses on the identification of large-scale flood risk mitigation strategies for the middle-lower reach of River Po, the longest Italian river and the largest in terms of streamflow. This study develops and tests the applicability of a quasi-2D hydraulic model to aid the identification of large-scale flood risk mitigation strategies relative to a 500-year flood event other than levee heightening, which is not technically viable nor economically conceivable for the case study. Different geometrical configurations of the embankment system are considered and modelled in the study: no overtopping; overtopping and levee breaching; overtopping without levee breaching. The quasi-2D model resulted in being a very useful tool for (1) addressing the problem of flood risk mitigation from a global - perspective (i.e., entire middle-lower reach of River Po), (2) identifying critical reaches, inundation areas and corresponding overflow volumes, and (3) generating reliable boundary conditions for smaller scale studies aimed at further analyzing the hypothesized flood mitigation strategies using more complex modelling tools (e.g., fully 2D approaches). These are crucial tasks for institutions and public bodies in charge of formulating robust flood risk management strategies for large European rivers, in the light of the recent Directive 2007/60/EC on the assessment and management of flood risks ( European Parliament, 2007).

  7. Adherence monitoring with chronic opioid therapy for persistent pain: a biopsychosocial-spiritual approach to mitigate risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matteliano, Deborah; St Marie, Barbara J; Oliver, June; Coggins, Candace

    2014-03-01

    Opioids represent a mainstay in the pharmacologic management of persistent pain. Although these drugs are intended to support improved comfort and function, the inherent risk of abuse or addiction must be considered in the delivery of care. The experience of living with persistent pain often includes depression, fear, loss, and anxiety, leading to feelings of hopelessness, helplessness, and spiritual crisis. Collectively, these factors represent an increased risk for all patients, particularly those with a history of substance abuse or addiction. This companion article to the American Society for Pain Management Nursing "Position Statement on Pain Management in Patients with Substance Use Disorders" (2012) focuses on the intersection of persistent pain, substance use disorder (SUD), and chronic opioid therapy and the clinical implications of monitoring adherence with safe use of opioids for those with persistent pain. This paper presents an approach to the comprehensive assessment of persons with persistent pain when receiving opioid therapy by presenting an expansion of the biopsychosocial model to include spiritual factors associated with pain and SUD, thus formulating a biopsychosocial-spiritual approach to mitigate risk. Key principles are provided for adherence monitoring using the biopsychosocial-spiritual assessment model developed by the authors as a means of promoting sensitive and respectful care. PMID:24602442

  8. Mitigation of Insider Risks using Distributed Agent Detection, Filtering, and Signaling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam J. Rocke

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available An insider-robust approach to file integrity verification is developed using interacting strata of mobile agents. Previous approaches relied upon monolithic architectures, or more recently, agent frameworks using a centralized control mechanism or common reporting repository. However, any such distinct tampering-point introduces vulnerabilities, especially from knowledgeable insiders capable of abusing security-critical resources. In the Collaborative Object Notification Framework for Insider Defense using Autonomous Network Transactions (CONFIDANT, the mechanisms for tampering detection, decision-making, and alert signaling are distributed and corroborated by autonomous agents. In this paper, the CONFIDANT file integrity verification framework is presented focusing on insider defense aspects. User capability classes are defined and critical physical tampering points in intrusion detection architectures are identified. CONFIDANT mitigation techniques of insider tampering exposures and example scenarios are presented.

  9. Cultivated microalgae spills: hard to predict/easier to mitigate risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gressel, Jonathan; van der Vlugt, Cécile J B; Bergmans, Hans E N

    2014-02-01

    Cultivating algae on a large scale will inevitably lead to spills into natural ecosystems. Most risk analyses have dealt only with transgenic algae, without considering the risks of cultivating the corresponding non-transgenic wild type species. This is despite the long-studied 'paradox of the plankton', which describes the unsuitability of laboratory experimentation or modeling to predict the outcome of introducing non-native algae into a new ecosystem. Risk analyses of transgenic strains of native algae can be based on whether they are more fit or less fit than their wild type, but these are not possible with non-native species. Risks from spills can be minimized by mutagenically or transgenically deleting genes that are unnecessary in culture but obligatory in nature. PMID:24369876

  10. Dam break modelling, risk assessment and uncertainty analysis for flood mitigation:

    OpenAIRE

    Zagonjolli, M.

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis a range of modelling techniques is explored to deal effectively with flood risk management. In particular, attention is paid to floods caused by failure of hydraulic structures such as dams and dikes. The methods considered here are applied for simulating dam and dike failure events, flood water routing in downstream areas, and flood risk reduction, providing a unified framework for addressing a variety of flood related events. Numerical, statistical and constraint based method...

  11. Risk constraint measures developed for the outcome-based strategy for tank waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report is one of a series of supporting documents for the outcome-based characterization strategy developed by PNNL. This report presents a set of proposed risk measures with risk constraint (acceptance) levels for use in the Value of Information process used in the NCS. The characterization strategy has developed a risk-based Value of Information (VOI) approach for comparing the cost-effectiveness of characterizing versus mitigating particular waste tanks or tank clusters. The preference between characterizing or mitigating in order to prevent an accident depends on the cost of those activities relative to the cost of the consequences of the accident. The consequences are defined as adverse impacts measured across a broad set of risk categories such as worker dose, public cancers, ecological harm, and sociocultural impacts. Within each risk measure, various open-quotes constraint levelsclose quotes have been identified that reflect regulatory standards or conventionally negotiated thresholds of harm to Hanford resources and values. The cost of consequences includes the open-quotes costs close-quote of exceeding those constraint levels as well as a strictly linear costing per unit of impact within each of the risk measures. In actual application, VOI based-decision making is an iterative process, with a preliminary low-precision screen of potential technical options against the major risk constraints, followed by VOI analysis to determine the cost-effectiveness of gathering additional information and to select a preferred technical option, and finally a posterior screen to determine whether the preferred option meets all relevant risk constraints and acceptability criteria

  12. L-Band Digital Aeronautical Communications System Engineering - Initial Safety and Security Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract NNC05CA85C, Task 7: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed L-band (960 to 1164 MHz) terrestrial en route communications system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents a preliminary safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the L-band communication system after the technology is chosen and system rollout timing is determined. The security risk analysis resulted in identifying main security threats to the proposed system as well as noting additional threats recommended for a future security analysis conducted at a later stage in the system development process. The document discusses various security controls, including those suggested in the COCR Version 2.0.

  13. Joint System Prognostics For Increased Efficiency And Risk Mitigation In Advanced Nuclear Reactor Instrumentation and Control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donald D. Dudenhoeffer; Tuan Q. Tran; Ronald L. Boring; Bruce P. Hallbert

    2006-08-01

    The science of prognostics is analogous to a doctor who, based on a set of symptoms and patient tests, assesses a probable cause, the risk to the patient, and a course of action for recovery. While traditional prognostics research has focused on the aspect of hydraulic and mechanical systems and associated failures, this project will take a joint view in focusing not only on the digital I&C aspect of reliability and risk, but also on the risks associated with the human element. Model development will not only include an approximation of the control system physical degradation but also on human performance degradation. Thus the goal of the prognostic system is to evaluate control room operation; to identify and potentially take action when performance degradation reduces plant efficiency, reliability or safety.

  14. Risk measures in living probabilistic safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main objectives of the study are: to define risk measures and suggested uses of them in various living PSA applications for the operational safety management and to describe specific model features required for living PSA applications. The report is based on three case studies performed within the Nordic research project Safety Evaluation by Use of Living PSA and Safety Indicators. (48 refs., 11 figs., 17 tabs.)

  15. Environmental benefits and risks of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI): risk mitigation or trade-off?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; FjordbØge, Annika Sidelmann

    2009-01-01

    The use of nanoscaled particles in environmental remediation is gaining increasing amounts of attention in recent years, including the use of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI) for soil and groundwater remediation. The main advantages of its use include high degrees of reactivity towards a wide range of contaminants, enhanced mobility of the often coated particles, and its cost-effective in situ applications. Numerous studies have shown that compared to larger sized iron particles nZVI may have some superior properties, due to high surface areas and small sizes associated with nanoscale dimensions. While the use and further development of nZVI is understandably heralded as an environmentally-beneficial technology, the potentials risks of introducing these nanoparticles into the environment also needs to be considered. To date most research has focused on the potential benefits of nZVI and very little research has investigated its potential health and environmental risks. Nonetheless, some recent studies have documented adverse effects from its exposure including the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS), oxidative stress, bactericidal effects, DNA damage, and inflammatory responses. Moreover, field site injections often involve the use of large quantities of nZVI (10-50 g/L) which may be directly injected into groundwater flow. Combined with the pursuit of designing more mobile and reactive particles, this may potentially lead to risks related to environmental exposures of substantial concentrations. In this study, we provide a brief synopsis of the expected environmental benefits and potential risks of nZVI, particularly focusing on its environmental fate and behavior and potential role as contaminant carrier. These are some areas of primary concern for risk assessors. Furthermore, we estimate and compare the span between probable environmental concentrations from its use in the field and concentrations which have been shown to cause adverse effects in laboratory settings. This is in light of the challenges that quantitative risk assessments face for nZVI and other nanoparticles, in part due to extensive and fundamental uncertainties. These data may provide a starting point to more thoroughly investigate the potential risks of nZVI and ultimately help scientists, engineers, and decision makers make better informed decisions regarding the use of nZVI for environmental remediation.

  16. A Human Factor Analysis to Mitigate Fall Risk Factors in an Aerospace Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ware, Joylene H.

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the study done to quanitfy the risks from falls from three locations (i.e., Shuttle Landing Facility Launch Complex Payloads and Vehicle Assembly Building) at the Kennedy Space Center. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is reviewed and the mathematical model developed is detailed.

  17. Stress Testing Engineering: the real risk measurement?

    OpenAIRE

    Guegan, Dominique; Hassani, Bertrand

    2014-01-01

    Stress testing is used to determine the stability or the resilience of a given financial institution by deliberately submitting. In this paper, we focus on what may lead a bank to fail and how its resilience can be measured. Two families of triggers are analysed: the first stands in the stands in the impact of external (and / or extreme) events, the second one stands on the impacts of the choice of inadequate models for predictions or risks measurement; more precisely on models becoming inade...

  18. Policies and Measures to Realise Industrial Energy Efficiency and Mitigate Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The industrial sector is responsible for a significant share of global energy use and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Energy efficiency is commonly seen as the most cost-effective, least-polluting, and most readily-accessible industrial energy saving option available in the industrial sector worldwide. Capturing the full extent of these potential end-use energy efficiency improvements rapidly is essential if the world is to be on a path to stabilise greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations to a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. In the International Energy Agency (IEA) 450 parts per million stabilisation scenario, over a quarter of all energy efficiency gains need to come from the industrial sector by 2050, largely by changing the pattern of industrial energy use. The reduction potential estimated by IEA and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for five energy-intensive industrial sub-sectors ranges from about 10 to 40 per cent, depending upon the sector. There is significant potential to reduce, at low or no cost, the amount of energy used to manufacture most commodities. Many policies and programmes - at a national level - have already demonstrated significant improvements in industrial energy efficiency. The associate reduction in energy needs often also improves economic competitiveness as well as mitigates GHG emissions. However, at an international level, approaches such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) are not yet delivering the expected energy efficiency improvements. Existing and effective industrial energy efficiency policies and measures could be replicated at a global level. Key elements of those policies and measures include increasing facility management attention to the issue of energy efficiency; promoting the dissemination of information, practice, and tools; increasing the auditing and implementation capacity; and developing the market for industrial energy efficiency investment. Better energy efficiency can produce substantial benefits both for global economic growth and poverty reduction as well as for mitigating climate change. The paper details examples of effective industrial energy efficiency policies and programmes. It provides a list of recommended actions to accelerate the adoption of industrial energy efficiency technologies and practices. Many policies and programmes have elements which seem likely to be readily deployable, replicable and transferable. A successful post-Kyoto architecture, regardless of its specifics, should therefore enable these elements see the light of reality

  19. Downgrading Complexity in the Exxon Valdez Crisis: Using Information as a Risk Mitigation Tool in Complex Adaptive Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Snow

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available

     

    In a high-stakes crisis environment, trial and error can be too costly an approach. The Exxon Valdez oil spill provides an example of how complex adaptive systems can have simple, preventable problems and complex, unpredictable problems can come together with disastrous consequences. Not every possible contingency can be accounted for. However, research and experience can be applied to mitigate these types of risks by using information to reduce or "downgrade" the complexity of the contributing situations. The Cynefin contexts of complexity can be used to assess problems when they arise. Downgrading the level of complexity for a given problem can turn formerly complex or complicated situations into simple ones that require less knowledge and resources to resolve and can reduce the risk of failure. The possibility and consequences of failure may remain, but downgraded complexity can reduce the likelihood of this failure and make problems more manageable when they do occur.

  20. The Pepcon Disaster-Causative Factors and potential Preventive and Mitigative Measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lambert, H E; Alvares, N J

    2003-07-25

    On May 4, 1988, the PEPCON plant experienced three major and several smaller explosions that caused over $70 million in property damage and caused two deaths. The PEPCON plant produced Ammonium Perchlorate (AP), a major ingredient for rocket fuel. The PEPCON plant and the nearby Kidd Marshmallow plant were totally destroyed by the detonations. The initiating event for the explosions was a fire that originated in the Batch Dryer Building and spread to adjacent storage. Several factors combined to cause the AP in the major storage fields to detonate, the most important being lack of adequate separation between storage units. Welding and flame cutting procedure with poor fire watch protocol was the prime candidate for fire ignition. There were no automatic fire suppression systems at the plant. Buildings including the Batch Dryer Building were made of combustible building material (fiberglass). There was poor housekeeping and no control of AP dust generation. AP was stored in combustible polyethylene drums, aluminum tote bins, 30-gallon steel storage drums and fiber reinforced tote bags. There were high-density storage practices. In addition, a contributing factor to the rapid fire-spread was that the wind that day was blowing directly from the batch dryer building to the storage areas. This paper claims that if codes, standards, and well-known hazard identification safety techniques were implemented at PEPCON, then the disaster would have been averted. A limited scope probabilistic risk assessment was conducted to establish the effectiveness of various preventive and mitigative features that could have been deployed to avert the disaster. The major hazard at the PEPCON site was fire and explosion involving the processing, production and storage of AP, which was then and is currently stored as a class 4 oxidizer. Since minute quantities of contamination can cause AP to be detonable by shock, there has been an ongoing debate concerning its reclassification to a class-A explosive.

  1. Cash Sub-additive Risk Measures and Interest Rate Ambiguity

    CERN Document Server

    Karoui, Nicole El

    2007-01-01

    A new class of risk measures called cash sub-additive risk measures is introduced to assess the risk of future financial, nonfinancial and insurance positions. The debated cash additive axiom is relaxed into the cash sub additive axiom to preserve the original difference between the numeraire of the current reserve amounts and future positions. Consequently, cash sub-additive risk measures can model stochastic and/or ambiguous interest rates or defaultable contingent claims. Practical examples are presented and in such contexts cash additive risk measures cannot be used. Several representations of the cash sub-additive risk measures are provided. The new risk measures are characterized by penalty functions defined on a set of sub-linear probability measures and can be represented using penalty functions associated with cash additive risk measures defined on some extended spaces. The issue of the optimal risk transfer is studied in the new framework using inf-convolution techniques. Examples of dynamic cash su...

  2. Residents in a high radon potential geographic area: Their risk perception and attitude toward testing and mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boone County, Indiana was identified by the EPA as one of the high radon potential geographic areas. Health education campaigns are needed to prevent resident's unnecessary radon exposure. In order to design suitable programs, a questionnaire mail survey was conducted to measure socio-demographic characteristics of County resident's knowledge about radon, attitude toward radon testing and mitigation, support of education campaigns, and the best media to deliver radon education campaigns. A stratified random sampling method was applied for a total of 400 samples. The number of samples from each township/city was a proportion of their taxable parcels. The survey return rate was 39.8%. The data were analyzed by Epi Info and SPSS. The statistical significant level was set at ? = 0.05. The results showed that resident's knowledge about radon was at a relatively superficial level. There was no association identified between the knowledge of radon and gender, age, family income, or education, except that females more frequently believed in false effects caused by radon. A significant correlation between radon knowledge and home radon tests was observed. Also found in this study was that respondents with better knowledge about diseases caused by radon had more confidence in radon mitigation actions. Newspaper was chosen by respondents as the most favorite media to deliver radon health education campaigns. Health education campaigns for the residents of Boone County might be r the residents of Boone County might be conducted by local governments and/or other organizations

  3. Literature review and risk mitigation strategy for unintended consequences of computerized physician order entry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowan, Lisa

    2013-01-01

    Computerized physician order entry (CPOE) is a form of patient management health technology software used for providers to enter medical orders into a computer system. CPOE is a health care solution used to improve patient safety and quality of care, decrease costs, and reduce the risk of medical errors. However, there are unintended consequences to electronic health records that can actually cause an increase in medical errors. Two areas of concern that risk management practitioners need to monitor and analyze are the effects of CPOE on nurse-physician communication and operational workflows. A strategic proactive plan will reduce the likelihood of adverse events, specifically medication errors. Providers and nurses will require focused education on effective communication strategies and leadership will need to promote a culture of safety. PMID:23505740

  4. Mitigating Information security risks during the Transition to Integrated Operations: Models & Data

    OpenAIRE

    Qian, Ying

    2010-01-01

    This research studies the change of information security risks during the transition to Integrated Operations (an operation extensively utilize advanced information communication technology to connect offshore facilities and onshore control centers and even vendors.) in Norsk Hydro, a Norwegian oil and gas company. The specific case for this study is a pilot platform in transition to Integrated Operations, Brage: twenty traditional work processes are to be replaced by new work ...

  5. Development of a Meteorological Risk Map for Disaster Mitigation and Management in the Chishan Basin, Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tai-Li Lee

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study involved developing a natural disaster risk assessment framework based on the consideration of three phases: a pre-disaster phase, disaster impact phase, and post-disaster recovery phase. The exposure of natural disasters exhibits unique characteristics. The interactions of numerous factors should be considered in risk assessment as well as in monitoring environment to provide natural disaster warnings. In each phase, specific factors indicate the relative status in the area subjected to risk assessment. Three types of natural disaster were assessed, namely debris flows, floods, and droughts. The Chishan basin in Taiwan was used as a case study and the adequacy of the relocation of Xiaolin village was evaluated. Incorporating resilience into the assessment revealed that the higher the exposure is, the higher the resilience becomes. This is because highly populated areas are typically allocated enough resources to respond to disasters. In addition, highly populated areas typically exhibit high resilience. The application of this analysis in the policy of relocation of damaged village after disaster provides valuable information for decision makers to achieve the sustainability of land use planning.

  6. Approach for Mitigating Pressure Garment Design Risks in a Mobile Lunar Surface Systems Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aitchison, Lindsay

    2009-01-01

    The stated goals of the 2004 Vision for Space Exploration focus on establishing a human presence throughout the solar system beginning with the establishment of a permanent human presence on the Moon. However, the precise objectives to be accomplished on the lunar surface and the optimal system architecture to achieve those objectives have been a topic of much debate since the inception of the Constellation Program. There are two basic styles of system architectures being traded at the Programmatic level: a traditional large outpost that would focus on techniques for survival off our home planet and a greater depth of exploration within one area, or a mobile approach- akin to a series of nomadic camps- that would allow greater breadth of exploration opportunities. The traditional outpost philosophy is well within the understood pressure garment design space with respect to developing interfaces and operational life cycle models. The mobile outpost, however, combines many unknowns with respect to pressure garment performance and reliability that could dramatically affect the cost and schedule risks associated with the Constellation space suit system. This paper provides an overview of the concepts being traded for a mobile architecture from the operations and hardware implementation perspective, describes the primary risks to the Constellation pressure garment associated with each of the concepts, and summarizes the approach necessary to quantify the pressure garment design risks to enable the Constellation Program to make informed decisions when deciding on an overall lunar surface systems architecture.

  7. The respiratory health hazards of volcanic ash: a review for volcanic risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horwell, Claire J.; Baxter, Peter J.

    2006-07-01

    Studies of the respiratory health effects of different types of volcanic ash have been undertaken only in the last 40 years, and mostly since the eruption of Mt. St. Helens in 1980. This review of all published clinical, epidemiological and toxicological studies, and other work known to the authors up to and including 2005, highlights the sparseness of studies on acute health effects after eruptions and the complexity of evaluating the long-term health risk (silicosis, non-specific pneumoconiosis and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) in populations from prolonged exposure to ash due to persistent eruptive activity. The acute and chronic health effects of volcanic ash depend upon particle size (particularly the proportion of respirable-sized material), mineralogical composition (including the crystalline silica content) and the physico-chemical properties of the surfaces of the ash particles, all of which vary between volcanoes and even eruptions of the same volcano, but adequate information on these key characteristics is not reported for most eruptions. The incidence of acute respiratory symptoms (e.g. asthma, bronchitis) varies greatly after ashfalls, from very few, if any, reported cases to population outbreaks of asthma. The studies are inadequate for excluding increases in acute respiratory mortality after eruptions. Individuals with pre-existing lung disease, including asthma, can be at increased risk of their symptoms being exacerbated after falls of fine ash. A comprehensive risk assessment, including toxicological studies, to determine the long-term risk of silicosis from chronic exposure to volcanic ash, has been undertaken only in the eruptions of Mt. St. Helens (1980), USA, and Soufrière Hills, Montserrat (1995 onwards). In the Soufrière Hills eruption, a long-term silicosis hazard has been identified and sufficient exposure and toxicological information obtained to make a probabilistic risk assessment for the development of silicosis in outdoor workers and the general population. A more systematic approach to multi-disciplinary studies in future eruptions is recommended, including establishing an archive of ash samples and a website containing health advice for the public, together with scientific and medical study guidelines for volcanologists and health-care workers.

  8. Using inferred drivers of discarding behaviour to evaluate discard mitigation measures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Catchpole, T.L.; Feekings, Jordan P.

    2014-01-01

    Discards refer to the part of the catch not retained on board during commercial fishing operations, but returned to the sea. The proposed European Union Common Fisheries Policy reform, to be implemented in 2014, sets out a gradual elimination of discards by reducing unwanted catches and ensuring that all catches are landed. To develop successful discard mitigation measures, it is necessary to identify the reasons for discarding. Here, we have developed a simple model that can be applied to data from observer programmes (ObsPs) to establish the contribution of different drivers of discarding behaviour. The analysis makes inferences on the causes of discarding by partitioning discards into four categories based on the length of the fish and the associated regulatory restrictions. The drivers are defined as: fish discarded below the legalminimum landing size; fish forwhich there is no market and that do not have aminimum landing size; fish for which there are inconsistencies in market and sorting practices; and discards that can be attributed to fishers’ responses to quota restrictions. The approach is applied to data generated from ObsPs from five EuropeanMember States. All the inferred drivers contribute to the total discard quantity. Their relative contributions vary widely across countries, areas, gears, and species

  9. The instability of downside risk measures

    CERN Document Server

    Varga-Haszonits, Istvan

    2008-01-01

    We study the feasibility and noise sensitivity of portfolio optimization under some downside risk measures (Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and semivariance) when they are estimated by fitting a parametric distribution on a finite sample of asset returns. We find that the existence of the optimum is a probabilistic issue, depending on the particular random sample, in all three cases. At a critical combination of the parameters of these problems we find an algorithmic phase transition, separating the phase where the optimization is feasible from the one where it is not. This transition is similar to the one discovered earlier for Expected Shortfall based on historical time series. We employ the replica method to compute the phase diagram, as well as to obtain the critical exponent of the estimation error that diverges at the critical point. The analytical results are corroborated by Monte Carlo simulations.

  10. The reordering urban community participation. A strategy for the prevention and mitigation of risk by geological phenomena: Case of implementation in Medellin, Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this article, it is showed the fulfilled methodology by the municipality of Medellin-Colombia and its results, at the Picacho sector, for the risk prevention and mitigation of rock fall It is formulated and developed a project for urban rearrangement, in which the community participation is the transverse component at the planning- management, risk prevention- mitigation, legalization of land's possession, housing improvement- relocation, and urban infrastructure. The most important results were a) the improvement of quality's life for residents, benefiting directly about 2,500 people and indirectly about 24,000, with one investment near 3.6 dollar millions; b) construction of social web and membership sense; c) better governance and better state-community relation; and d) risk reduction of rock fall As the main conclusion it is expounded that the community participation at all stages of the project and the concept that the risk is non resolved problem of the development are two determining elements so that urban rearrangement may be, in many cases, the better option for the risk prevention and mitigation of geological phenomena in urban areas of unmannerly development, rather than one massive relocation of the population

  11. Modelling of agricultural diffuse pollution and mitigation measures effectiveness in Wallonia (Belgium)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohier, C.; Deraedt, D.; Degré, A.

    2012-04-01

    Implementation of European directives in the environmental field and, specially, in the water management field, generates a request from policy-makers for news tools able to evaluate impact of management measures aiming at reducing pressures on ecosystems. In Wallonia (Southern Region of Belgium), the Nitrate Directive (EEC/676/91) was transposed into the "Walloon action plan for nitrogen sustainable management in agriculture" (PGDA1) in 2002. In 2007, a second plan was launched to reinforce some topics (PGDA2). Furthermore, the goal of "good quality" of surface waters and groundwater imposed by the Water Framework Directive poses new challenges in water management. In this context, a "soil and vadose" hydrological model is used in order to evaluate diffuse pollutions and efficiency of mitigation measures. This model, called EPICgrid, has been developed at catchment scale with an original modular concept on the basis of the field scale "water-soil-plant" EPIC model (Williams J.R., Jones C.A., Dyke P.T. (1984). A modelling approach to determining the relationship between erosion and soil productivity. Transactions of the ASAE. 27, 129-144). The model estimates, for each HRU identified into a 1km2 grid, water and nutrients flows into the plant-soil-vadose zone system (Sohier C., Degré A., Dautrebande S. (2009). From root zone modelling to regional forecasting of nitrate concentration in recharge flows - The case of the Walloon Region (Belgium). Journal of Hydrology, Volume 369, Issues 3-4, 15 May 2009, Pages 350-359). The model is used to make prospective simulations in order to evaluate the impact of measures currently performed to reduce the effect of diffuse pollution on water surface quality and groundwater quality, at regional scale. Response of the soil-vadose zone to agricultural practices modification is analyzed for the deadlines of the Water Framework Directive: 2015, 2021 and 2027, taking into account two climatic scenarios. Simulations results showed that actual measures are not sufficient in some areas and that new actions are necessary. The EPICgrid model was also used to evaluate effectiveness of further measures that could be implemented in order to reduce agricultural diffuse pollution. The increasing of catch crops in vulnerable zones has shown a limited impact in the Walloon context. The modifications of agricultural practices such as crop rotations or mineral fertilizing amounts have shown a more significant impact on water quality. Furthermore, the farmers' practices are evaluated each year by a measuring campaign of the soil nitrogen residue after harvest. These data allow us to improve the representativeness of the EPICgrid model in areas in which agricultural practices largely differs from regional statistics.

  12. Modelling the impacts of climate change on muddy flooding and the effectiveness of mitigation measures in Flanders, Belgium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullan, Donal; Vandaele, Karel; Boardman, John; Favis-Mortlock, Dave

    2014-05-01

    The 'off-site' impacts of soil erosion have become a major source of concern in Europe and elsewhere during recent decades. This is due, in part, to the environmental damage and economic costs associated with 'muddy flooding.' Muddy floods occur when large volumes of runoff are generated on agricultural land, triggering the detachment and transport of sediment. This may then be deposited in neighbouring settlements. The Belgian loess belt is particularly vulnerable to muddy floods since loess-derived soils are susceptible to crusting, which decreases their infiltration rates and promotes high levels of runoff and erosion. Severe economic damages in many Flemish municipalities led to government provision of funding for voluntary mitigation measures from 2001. In the Melsterbeek catchment, where several villages have been particularly affected by severe muddy floods, mitigation measures have been implemented and their effectiveness subsequently monitored. Runoff, erosion and the occurrence of muddy floods have all considerably decreased. The scheme was cost-effective within three years. The success of these mitigation measures may diminish over the coming decades, however, as climate change poses new threats ranging from direct changes in rainfall intensity to the indirect effects of climate-driven shifts in land use. Such changes could potentially generate increased runoff over agricultural land and lead to a resurgence of muddy flooding in vulnerable areas, with severe repercussions for the effectiveness of mitigation measures. In this study, we model the impacts of climate change on muddy flooding for a hillslope in the Melsterbeek catchment where mitigation measures have been implemented, enabling us to quantify the threat which climate change poses to their effectiveness. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) was employed. Model data for present-day conditions were perturbed with future climate change parameters derived from statistical downscaling methods, and for land use change projections developed using a scenarios-based framework. Results reveal that existing mitigation measures may become compromised under a selection of future scenarios of climate and land use. Future efforts at conservation may need to become more flexible to remain effective in the changing environment of the coming decades.

  13. Performance evaluating of the AP1000 passive safety systems for mitigation of small break loss of coolant accident using risk assessment tool-II software

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kamyab, Shahabeddin [School of Engineering, Shiraz University, 71348-51154 Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Nematollahi, Mohammadreza, E-mail: nema@shirazu.ac.ir [School of Engineering, Shiraz University, 71348-51154 Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Safety Research Center of Shiraz University, 71348-51154 Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2012-12-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The SBLOCA CDF has been estimated to be 1.934E-8/year, using RAT II. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The simplicity and passive safety systems result in decrease in the probability of CCF. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer However, the importance analysis ranks the CCF as the greatest contributor in CDF. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Automatic and manual actuation failure probabilities have been founded to have low contribution in the SBLOCA CDF. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The analysis assesses the performance of passive safety systems and reveals the deficiencies. - Abstract: The successful performance of defense barriers in the operating nuclear power plants is vital to avoid any release of highly radioactive fission products. Passive safety systems, independent of the electrical power, are implemented in modern NPPs to improve their reliability on demand. In this study, the SB-LOCA CDF is evaluated for the AP1000 to assess the performance of passive safety systems. The core damage states are examined to identify the most considerable risk contributors. Besides, importance measures rank the failures. Risk assessment tool-II has been designed and developed, in the safety research center of Shiraz University, to develop the PSA level 1 models. Using redundant passive and diverse reliable safety systems result in the low CDF of SB-LOCA (i.e. 1.934E-08). Considering the dominant sequences indicates that relying on passive automatic actuation mitigating processes, independent of operator actuations and electrical motive power leads to the considerable decrease in the probability of common cause failures and the CDF. However, importance analysis reveals the high contribution of CCF{sub B}Es in the SB-LOCA CDF. The results identify the weak points of operation and the most important risk contributors, in order to improve the inadequacies in design, test and maintenance and required human actions.

  14. HOW TO MITIGATE THE RISKS OF MANAGING ONLINE ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS BY TRAINING WITH SIMBOUND SIMULATION GAME

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louis Doru Havriliuc

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to describe how a digital marketing simulation system improve the knowledge and skills of students, as well as their status as members of a virtual community, which gradually evolve from novice to expert in managing online advertising campaigns. The body of the article encompasses three contributions: the know-how of the Simbound Game author, the practical experiences of an instructor, who coordinated students’ activities during three courses and of a Master student – the leader of a team which got the first position after the completion of a game. The advantages of managing no-risk online advertising campaigns are revealed and the students are able to understand how various online marketing tools become useful while a firm expands its operations in e-commerce and must fulfill new tasks and responsibilities. The paper concludes with the practical implications of the Simbound simulation-based learning and the ideas included in the future research agenda.

  15. Surface, sub-surface mapping, geohazard identification and associated risk mitigation for pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mitchell, Todd [Fugro SESL Geomatics Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada); Hitchcock, Chris [Fugro William Lettis and Associates, Walnut Creek, California (United States); Amine, Dima [Fugro Airborne Surveys, Mississauga, Ontario (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    In the oil and gas sector, there is a constant need to build new lines as well as to upgrade existing ones in order to keep up with the growing demand. In the design, construction and maintenance phases of a pipeline project, capture and analysis of remote sensing data can be very useful for achieving improved efficiencies and cost savings. The purpose of this paper is to present how various tools can provide significant logistical information. Different remote sensing collection techniques such as LiDAR, topographical mapping, subsurface electromagnetic and magnetic sensing datasets are available to professionals. These practical tools can be used for evaluation of geohazards, landslide and fault avoidance, and determining alternate routing options and construction feasibility. This study provides an overview of which techniques are appropriate for each geohazard and highlights that risk planning can be considerably reduced with efficient determination of ground conditions through the use of these techniques.

  16. Mitigating the risk of opioid abuse through a balanced undergraduate pain medicine curriculum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morley-Forster PK

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Patricia K Morley-Forster,1,2 Joseph V Pergolizzi,3–5 Robert Taylor Jr,5 Robert A Axford-Gatley,6 Edward M Sellers71Department of Anesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada; 2Outpatient Pain Clinic, St Joseph’s Hospital, London, ON, Canada; 3Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA; 4Department of Pharmacology, Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA, USA; 5NEMA Research Inc, Naples, FL, USA; 6Clinical Content and Editorial Services, Complete Healthcare Communications, Inc, Chadds Ford, PA, USA; 7DL Global Partners Inc, Toronto, ON, CanadaAbstract: Chronic pain is highly prevalent in the United States and Canada, occurring in an estimated 30% of the adult population. Despite its high prevalence, US and Canadian medical schools provide very little training in pain management, including training in the safe and effective use of potent analgesics, most notably opioids. In 2005, the International Association for the Study of Pain published recommendations for a core undergraduate pain management curriculum, and several universities have implemented pilot programs based on this curriculum. However, when outcomes have been formally assessed, these initiatives have resulted in only modest improvements in physician knowledge about chronic pain and its treatment. This article discusses strategies to improve undergraduate pain management curricula and proposes areas in which those efforts can be augmented. Emphasis is placed on opioids, which have great potency as analgesics but also substantial risks in terms of adverse events and the risk of abuse and addiction. The authors conclude that the most important element of an undergraduate pain curriculum is clinical experience under mentors who are capable of reinforcing didactic learning by modeling best practices.Keywords: chronic pain, curricular content, medical education, opioids, pain education, pain knowledge, physician training, teaching

  17. Improving cost-effectiveness and mitigating risks of renewable energy requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, James P.

    Policy makers at the federal and state levels of government are debating actions to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on oil as an energy source. Several concerns drive this debate: sharp rises in energy prices, increasing unease about the risks of climate change, energy security, and interest in expanding the domestic renewable energy industry. Renewable energy requirements are frequently proposed to address these concerns, and are currently in place, in various forms, at the federal and state levels of government. These policies specify that a certain portion of the energy supply come from renewable energy sources. This dissertation focuses on a specific proposal, known as 25 X 25, which requires 25% of electricity and motor vehicle transportation fuels supplied to U.S. consumers to come from renewable energy sources, such as wind power and ethanol, by 2025. This dissertation builds on prior energy policy analysis, and more specifically analyses of renewable energy requirements, by assessing the social welfare implications of a 25 x 25 policy and applying new methods of uncertainty analysis to multiple policy options decision makers can use to implement the policy. These methods identify policy options that can improve the cost-effectiveness and reduce the risks of renewable energy requirements. While the dissertation focuses on a specific policy, the research methods and findings are applicable to other renewable energy requirement policies. In the dissertation, I analyze six strategies for implementing a 25 x 25 policy across several hundred scenarios that represent plausible futures for uncertainties in energy markets, such as renewable energy costs, energy demand, and fossil fuel prices. The strategies vary in the availability of resources that qualify towards the policy requirement and the use of a "safety valve" that allows refiners and utilities to pay a constant fee after renewable energy costs reach a predetermined threshold. I test each strategy across the set of scenarios and conclude that an "all-combined" strategy---one that allows greater corn ethanol production and energy efficiency to qualify towards the requirement and includes a safety valve---is the most robust strategy to address future uncertainties in energy markets.

  18. Mitigation Measures Following a Loss-of-Residual-Heat-Removal Event During Shutdown

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The transient following a loss-of-residual-heat-removal event during shutdown was analyzed to determine the containment closure time (CCT) to prevent uncontrolled release of fission products and the gravity-injection path and rate (GIPR) for effective core cooling using the RELAP5/MOD3.2 code. The plant conditions of Yonggwang Units 3 and 4, a pressurized water reactor (PWR) of 2815-MW(thermal) power in Korea, were reviewed, and possible event sequences were identified. From the CCT analysis for the five cases of typical plant configurations, it was estimated for the earliest CCT to be 40 min after the event in a case with a large cold-leg opening and emptied steam generators (SGs). However, the case with water-filled SGs significantly delayed the CCT through the heat removal to the secondary side. From the GIPR analysis for the six possible gravity-injection paths from the refueling water storage tank (RWST), the case with the injection point and opening on the other leg side was estimated to be the most suitable path to avoid core boiling. In addition, from the sensitivity study, it was evaluated for the plant to be capable of providing the core cooling for the long-term transient if nominal RWST water is available. As a result, these analysis methods and results will provide useful information in understanding the plant behavior and preparing the mitigation measures after the event, especially for Combustion Engineering-type PWR plants. However, to directly apply te PWR plants. However, to directly apply the analysis results to the emergency procedure for such an event, additional case studies are needed for a wide range of operating conditions such as reactor coolant inventory, RWST water temperature, and core decay heat rate

  19. NCCN Oncology Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies White Paper: Recommendations for Stakeholders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Philip E; Dahlman, George; Eng, Kirby; Garg, Rekha; Gottlieb, Scott; Hoffman, James M; Howell, Peyton; Jahanzeb, Mohammad; Johnson, Shirley; Mackler, Emily; Rubino, Mark; Sarokhan, Brenda; Marc Stewart, F; Tyler, Tim; Vose, Julie M; Weinstein, Sharon; Li, Edward C; Demartino, Jessica

    2010-09-01

    REMS are a particularly important issue for oncology and the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN). A disproportionate number of drugs with complex REMS are used in patients with cancer or hematologic disorders. REMS policies and processes within oncology may act as a model for other clinical areas. A breadth of experience and access to a wide knowledge base exists within oncology that will ensure appropriate development and consideration of the practical implications of REMS. NCCN is uniquely positioned to assume a leadership role in this process given its status as the arbiter of high-quality cancer care based on its world-leading institutions and clinicians. Notwithstanding the potential benefits, the successful design, implementation, and analysis of the FDA's recent requirement for REMS for some high-risk drugs and biologics will present significant challenges for stakeholders, including patients, providers, cancer centers, manufacturers, payors, health information technology vendors, and regulatory agencies. To provide guidance to these stakeholders regarding REMS challenges, the NCCN assembled a work group comprised of thought leaders from NCCN Member Institutions and other outside experts. The Work Group identified challenges across the REMS spectrum, including the areas of standardization, development and assessment of REMS programs, medication guides, provider knowledge and impact on prescribing, provider burden and compensation, and incorporation of REMS into clinical practice. PMID:20947724

  20. Proactive inventory policy intervention to mitigate risk within cooperative supply chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takako Kurano

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This exploratory paper will investigate the concept of supply chain risk management involving supplier monitoring within a cooperative supply chain. Inventory levels and stockouts are the key metrics. Key to this concept is the assumptions that (1 out-of-control supplier situations are causal triggers for downstream supply chain disruptions, (2 these triggers can potentially be predicted using statistical process monitoring tools, and (3 carrying excess inventory only when needed is preferable as opposed to carrying excess inventory on a continual basis. Simulation experimentation will be used to explore several supplier monitoring strategies based on statistical runs tests, specifically "runs up and down" and/or "runs above and below" tests. The sensitivity of these tests in detecting non-random supplier behavior will be explored and their performance will be investigated relative to stock-outs and inventory levels. Finally, the effects of production capacity and yield rate will be examined. Results indicate out-of-control supplier signals can be detected beforehand and stock-outs can be significantly reduced by dynamically adjusting inventory levels. The largest benefit occurs when both runs tests are used together and when the supplier has sufficient production capacity to respond to downstream demand (i.e., safety stock increases. When supplier capacity is limited, the highest benefit is achieved when yield rates are high and, thus, yield loss does not increase supplier production requirements beyond its available capacity.

  1. The nitrogen fate beyond the current nutrient mitigation measures: sustainability of an integrated agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieu, V.; Billen, G. F.; Garnier, J.; Lancelot, C.; Gypens, N.

    2010-12-01

    Located in the North-Western Europe the terrestrial continuum that includes the Seine, Somme, and Scheldt River basins offers an interesting example of a transborder territory (France, Belgium, and Netherlands) with high-intensity anthropogenic pressures. It well-illustrates the rapid development of modern agriculture in industrialised countries and the resulting severe alteration of water resources and jeopardising the capacity of rural territories to produce drinking water. The corresponding nutrient loads delivered then into the Southern Bight of the North Sea, strongly affect the ecological functioning of the coastal zone. An integrated ‘river-ocean’ assessment, coupling two deterministic models - the SENEQUE RIVESTRAHLER model simulating nutrient dynamic in the drainage network and the MIRO model describing the ecological functioning coastal ecosystem - points out the relevance of current policy based measures (improvement of waste water treatment) to mitigate phosphorous emissions, while the nitrogen pollution related to agriculture will remain critical despite the implementation of classical management measure (good agricultural practices). Therefore and irrespectively of the current political agenda, a more radical alternative is established, consisting of a generalised shift to an integrated agriculture of all agricultural areas in the three basins, excluding the use of synthetically compounded fertilisers and the importation of livestock feed. Such scenario aims at evaluating whether agriculture, by essence, can conciliate (i) the demand for food and feed by local populations, (ii) a good ecological functioning of aquatic ecosystems and (iii) a balanced nutrient status for the adjacent coastal area. This scenario involves an increased livestock density in the Seine and Somme and a decrease in livestock in the Scheldt basin. It leads to a significant reduction of agricultural production that finally brings the three basins closer to autotrophy/heterotrophy equilibrium, while a persisting requirement of long-distance importation of meat and milk clearly emphasises the unsustainability of the increasing share of animal proteins in the modern human diet. In the more optimistic hypothesis, nitrate concentrations in most of the drainage network would drop below the threshold of 2.25 mgN/l (10 mgNO3/L) which is often considered a threshold for a good ecological status. The excess of nitrogen over silica (with respect to the requirements of marine diatoms) delivered into the coastal zones would be decreased by a factor from 2 to 5, thus strongly reducing, but not entirely eliminating the potential for marine eutrophication. Despite a lack a short-term realism, this alternative could appears - in the line of the ‘adapting mosaic’ defined by the Millenium Ecosystem Assessement - as an end-point situation to be compared when building future nutrient reduction policies and incentive agricultural measures.

  2. Landslide-dammed lake at Tangjiashan, Sichuan province, China (triggered by the Wenchuan Earthquake, May 12, 2008): Risk assessment, mitigation strategy, and lessons learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, P.; Dang, C.; Zhuang, J.; You, Y.; Chen, X.; Scott, K.M.

    2012-01-01

    Landslides and rock avalanches triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake produced 257 landslide dams, mainly situated along the eastern boundary of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau where rivers descend approximately 3,000 m into the Sichuan Basin. The largest of these dams blocked the Tongkou River (a tributary of the Fujiang River) at Tangjiashan. The blockage, consisting of 2. 04 ?? 10 7 m 3 of landslide debris, impounded a lake with a projected maximum volume of 3. 15 ?? 10 8 m 3, potentially inundating 8. 92 km 2 of terrain. Its creation during the rainy season and the possibility of an uncontrolled release posed a serious, impending threat to at least 1. 3 million people downstream that could add substantially to the total of 69,200 individuals directly killed by the earthquake. Risk assessment of the blockage indicated that it was unlikely to collapse suddenly, and that eventual overtopping could be mitigated by notching the structure in order to create an engineered breach and achieve safe drainage of the lake. In addition to the installation of monitoring and warning instrumentation, for emergency planning we estimated several outburst scenarios equivalent to 20, 25, 33, and 50% of the dam failing suddenly, creating, respectively, 3. 35, 3. 84, 4. 22, and 4. 65 km 2 of flooded area, and overbank water depths of 4. 6, 5. 1, 5. 7, and 6. 2 m, respectively, in Mianyang, the second largest city in Sichuan Province, 48 km downstream from the blockage. Based on these scenarios, recommendations and plans for excavating a sluiceway, draining the lake, and downstream evacuation were proposed and later were implemented successfully, with the blockage breached by overtopping on June 10, less than a month after dam emplacement. The peak discharge of the release only slightly exceeded the flood of record at Mianyang City. No lives were lost, and significant property damage was avoided. Post-breaching evaluation reveals how future similar mitigation can be improved. Although initial breach erosion was slow, later erosion was judged uncontrollably rapid; increased slope of the engineered channel and adoption of a compound, trapezoid-triangular cross-section can be considered, as can other measures to control the rate of breach incision. Evacuees from Mianyang City spent an unnecessarily long time (12 days) in temporary settlements; more precise risk management planning can reduce this time in the future. ?? 2010 Springer-Verlag.

  3. Different risk-adjusted fund performance measures: a comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Grau-carles, Pilar; Sainz, Jorge; Otamendi, Javier; Doncel, Luis Miguel

    2009-01-01

    Traditional risk-adjusted performance measures, such as the Sharpe ratio, the Treynor index or Jensen's alpha, based on the mean-variance framework, are widely used to rank mutual funds. However, performance measures that consider risk by taking into account only losses, such as Value-at-Risk (VaR), would be more appropriate. Standard VaR assumes that returns are normally distributed, though they usually present skewness and kurtosis. In this paper we compare these different measures of risk:...

  4. Risk measures in practical use: risk reduction has its price, but is it known?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Different risk measures are discussed in order to decide which to use to best express the risk workers are exposed to. A new risk measure is introduced and advantages and disadvantages are presented. The need for a new risk measure (Expected Number of Fatalities Rate ENFR), is discussed and explained with the help of an example. The example also contains a comparison with the well-known FAR-value. Also some problems and benefits of introducing a measure of the kind: ?RISK/?$ are discussed and conclusions made. The question of what amount of money should be used on risk reducing activities is also addressed

  5. Sensitive molecular diagnostic assays to mitigate the risks of asymptomatic bacterial diseases of plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaad, N; Schuenzel, E

    2010-01-01

    Our highly concentrated monoculture makes crops vulnerable to pests and diseases. An increase in emerging non-indigenous bacterial diseases poses a real threat to US agriculture. The United States has 100,000 miles of shoreline and 6,000 miles of border, making possible easy introduction of crop pests and diseases. Most threatening to crops are the cross-domain enteric bacteria. In contrast to animals, crops have hundreds of major diseases and development of molecular-based detection protocols for each pathogen is impossible with current technology. Rathayibacter toxicus, a neurotoxin-producing bacterium transmitted by a seed gall nematode, is an example of a high-risk Select Agent. The bacterium infects seeds of grasses without showing any symptoms, often resulting in the death of grazing cattle. A prerequisite for the control of any disease is sensitive detection and proper identification of the causal organism. Detecting bacteria in samples of plants showing symptoms is relatively simple, whereas detection in asymptomatic tissues is difficult due to the extremely low numbers of the target pathogen present. Rapid serological assays work well with symptomatic tissues but not from asymptomatic tissue when bacteria levels are below sensitivity limits. Classical agar-plating assays are 1,000 fold more sensitive then serology or PCR. However, agar plating assays take from 3 to 5 days and require pathogenicity tests to confirm the identity. PCR-based assays allow for rapid, accurate identification but are insensitive due to use of 1 microL sample in comparison to 100 microL used for agar plating. To overcome this disadvantage, an enrichment technique termed BIO-PCR can be used in combination with agar plating for detection with asymptomatic tissues. The key to developing a successful BIO-PCR protocol is to determine the time required for development of pin point-size colonies to appear. For most plant pathogens 15 to 24 hours is sufficient time, whereas for the cross-domain bacteria only 1 to 2 hours is needed. For greater sensitivity, BIO-PCR can be combined with 96-well microliter plates with membranes to detect a single viable cell per 10 mL of an aqueous sample. PMID:20370634

  6. A process-based model for the definition of hydrological alert systems in landslide risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floris, M.; D'Alpaos, A.; De Agostini, A.; Stevan, G.; Tessari, G.; Genevois, R.

    2012-11-01

    The definition of hydrological alert systems for rainfall-induced landslides is strongly related to a deep knowledge of the geological and geomorphological features of the territory. Climatic conditions, spatial and temporal evolution of the phenomena and characterization of landslide triggering, together with propagation mechanisms, are the key elements to be considered. Critical steps for the development of the systems consist of the identification of the hydrological variable related to landslide triggering and of the minimum rainfall threshold for landslide occurrence. In this paper we report the results from a process-based model to define a hydrological alert system for the Val di Maso Landslide, located in the northeastern Italian Alps and included in the Vicenza Province (Veneto region, NE Italy). The instability occurred in November 2010, due to an exceptional rainfall event that hit the Vicenza Province and the entire NE Italy. Up to 500 mm in 3-day cumulated rainfall generated large flood conditions and triggered hundreds of landslides. During the flood, the Soil Protection Division of the Vicenza Province received more than 500 warnings of instability phenomena. The complexity of the event and the high level of risk to infrastructure and private buildings are the main reasons for deepening the specific phenomenon occurred at Val di Maso. Empirical and physically-based models have been used to identify the minimum rainfall threshold for the occurrence of instability phenomena in the crown area of Val di Maso landslide, where a retrogressive evolution by multiple rotational slides is expected. Empirical models helped in the identification and in the evaluation of recurrence of critical rainfall events, while physically-based modelling was essential to verify the effects on the slope stability of determined rainfall depths. Empirical relationships between rainfall and landslide consist of the calculation of rainfall Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves, which allow one to determine rainfall depth (or intensity) as a function of duration for given return periods or probabilities of exceedance (frequencies). Physically-based modelling was performed through coupled seepage and slope stability analyses. Combining results from empirical and physically-based modelling, the minimum alert threshold for a reactivation of the phenomenon was found in rainfall cumulated up to 60 days with a return period of 2 yr. These results were used to set up a hydrological alert system based on the calibration of DDF curves which can be used as a sort of abacus to plot in real time rainfall depths and to set increasing levels of alert on the basis of the degree of exceptionality of rainfall. The alert system for Val di Maso was successfully tested by the rainfall events that produced displacements which have been recorded by extensometers placed in the crown area after the November 2010 landslide. However, further tests are recommendable to improve the process-based model that led to the implementation of the alert system. To this end, a monitoring system is currently being realized. In the near future, monitoring data will help in testing and improving landslide evolution and alert models. The proposed hydrological alert system proves to be effective mainly because it can be applied to different scales of investigation and geological and geomorphological contexts. In fact, it might also be applicable to territorial scale analyses, as showed by the brief example provided in this paper on how the alert system could be used for landslide early warning in the area surrounding Val di Maso. Furthermore, it is easy to set up. The needed components are a rain gauge station, a software that compares rainfall data to rainfall events with different return periods and degree of alert, and a transmission system of the warning levels to authorities.

  7. A process-based model for the definition of hydrological alert systems in landslide risk mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Floris

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The definition of hydrological alert systems for rainfall-induced landslides is strongly related to a deep knowledge of the geological and geomorphological features of the territory. Climatic conditions, spatial and temporal evolution of the phenomena and characterization of landslide triggering, together with propagation mechanisms, are the key elements to be considered. Critical steps for the development of the systems consist of the identification of the hydrological variable related to landslide triggering and of the minimum rainfall threshold for landslide occurrence.

    In this paper we report the results from a process-based model to define a hydrological alert system for the Val di Maso Landslide, located in the northeastern Italian Alps and included in the Vicenza Province (Veneto region, NE Italy. The instability occurred in November 2010, due to an exceptional rainfall event that hit the Vicenza Province and the entire NE Italy. Up to 500 mm in 3-day cumulated rainfall generated large flood conditions and triggered hundreds of landslides. During the flood, the Soil Protection Division of the Vicenza Province received more than 500 warnings of instability phenomena. The complexity of the event and the high level of risk to infrastructure and private buildings are the main reasons for deepening the specific phenomenon occurred at Val di Maso.

    Empirical and physically-based models have been used to identify the minimum rainfall threshold for the occurrence of instability phenomena in the crown area of Val di Maso landslide, where a retrogressive evolution by multiple rotational slides is expected. Empirical models helped in the identification and in the evaluation of recurrence of critical rainfall events, while physically-based modelling was essential to verify the effects on the slope stability of determined rainfall depths. Empirical relationships between rainfall and landslide consist of the calculation of rainfall Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF curves, which allow one to determine rainfall depth (or intensity as a function of duration for given return periods or probabilities of exceedance (frequencies. Physically-based modelling was performed through coupled seepage and slope stability analyses.

    Combining results from empirical and physically-based modelling, the minimum alert threshold for a reactivation of the phenomenon was found in rainfall cumulated up to 60 days with a return period of 2 yr. These results were used to set up a hydrological alert system based on the calibration of DDF curves which can be used as a sort of abacus to plot in real time rainfall depths and to set increasing levels of alert on the basis of the degree of exceptionality of rainfall.

    The alert system for Val di Maso was successfully tested by the rainfall events that produced displacements which have been recorded by extensometers placed in the crown area after the November 2010 landslide. However, further tests are recommendable to improve the process-based model that led to the implementation of the alert system. To this end, a monitoring system is currently being realized. In the near future, monitoring data will help in testing and improving landslide evolution and alert models.

    The proposed hydrological alert system proves to be effective mainly because it can be applied to different scales of investigation and geological and geomorphological contexts. In fact, it might also be applicable to territorial scale analyses, as showed by the brief example provided in this paper on how the alert system could be used for landslide early warning in the area surrounding Val di Maso. Furthermore, it is easy to set up. The needed components are a rain gauge station, a software that compares rainfall data to rainfall events with different return periods and degree of alert, and a transmission system of the warning levels to authorities.

  8. Safety measure S 05 'Sump clogging risk'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper dealt with the safety measure S 05 'Sump clogging risk'. Problem specification contains: (1) to determine the effective strainer surface needed to be available in order to assure sufficient coolant volumes for a reliable operation of emergency systems; (2) to determine quantity and structure of insulation material which can be dislodged and can induce strained clogging; (3) to verify properties of insulation material with regard to its thermal degradation as a result of a long-term reactor unit operation; (4) to design and erect strainers so to assure sufficient congestion of emergency pump intake lines in post-accident regimes; (5) to design seismically resistant strainers with a capability to resist dynamic impacts from adjacent piping; (6) to assure monitoring of the strainer condition in real time with signals sent to the main control room

  9. A review of monitoring approaches and outcomes of surface water quality mitigation measures in meso-scale agricultural catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melland, Alice; Jordan, Phil; Murphy, Paul; Mellander, Per-Erik; Shortle, Ger

    2013-04-01

    Critical for an informative feedback loop from scientific monitoring of biophysical change, to making and implementing suitable policy to effect the desired change, are both accurate measurement of biophysical change, and measurement or modelling of the causes of change. For example the European Environment Agency uses the DPSIR framework to assess change in the state (S) of natural resources due to changes in specific drivers (D) and pressures (P) that can have an impact (I) and are the focus of policy responses (R). This paper provides a review of meso-catchment scale studies worldwide that have measured the impacts of agricultural land management practice on surface water quality. Approaches for measuring water quality impacts of agricultural mitigation practices in meso-catchments (1-100 km2) ranged from measuring water quality over a time series, such as before and after a land management change, or over a spatial series such as in paired catchments with and without agricultural practice change (or over a gradient of practices or catchment types), and by cause and effect studies that measure sources, pathways and impacts of practices. Agricultural mitigation measures had no measurable effect, or positive, or negative effects on water quality over periods of 3 to 20 years. In most catchments where beneficial effects of mitigation measures were successfully measured, combinations of measures that address nutrient or pollutant sources, pathways, delivery and impact have been implemented. Successful farm measures included substantial reductions in the intensity of the farming systems, improved engineering and crop management to reduce runoff and drainage transport of nutrients and sediment, as well as high rates of implementation of measures across the catchments. In many cases, the potential to measure improvement in one or more water quality indicators was limited by the impact of a few management or weather events. Reasons that water quality did not improve in some studies included the uncertainty inherent in most nutrient flux measurements and a lack of high flow water quality samples that limited the ability of practice impacts to be measured. In other catchments, it was difficult to verify whether a lack of effect was a result of ineffective measures, or because time lags for improvement of water quality were longer than the monitored period. Data on temporal and spatial nutrient source use was generally scarce in comparison with water quality data. Implications of the efficacy of measures and their monitoring programmes for researchers and policy-makers will be discussed.

  10. Climate change effects on mitigation measures: The case of extreme wind events and Philippines’ biofuel plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biofuel production has increased dramatically over the past decade, among other to mitigate climate change. However, climate change vulnerability may currently not be sufficiently accounted for in national biofuel strategies, hence neglecting a possible link between mitigation and adaptation to climate change. To the best of our knowledge this potential link has received very little attention in the literature. One example is the Philippines, which is currently implementing an ambitious program of biofuel production. Its aim is to reduce dependency on imported fuel, increase rural employment and incomes, and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. The Philippines is frequently battered by tropical typhoons and from 1975 to 2002 the annual average damage to agriculture was 3.047 billion pesos. We calculate wind damage on biofuel feedstock production, and assess the effect that a future potential increase in tropical cyclone intensity would have on energy security, rural development and climate change mitigation in the Philippines. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to obtain the future expected development of typhoon impacts. Based on the Philippines legislated target of 10% biodiesel blend in gasoline by 2011, simulation of the affected area for each feedstock, and expected biofuel feedstock damage is computed for the Philippine's 80 provinces in 2050, for two different typhoon climate change scenarios. Additional indirect economic effects are assessed in a tentative way. Thffects are assessed in a tentative way. The results suggest a modest decrease in biofuel feedstock productivity at the national level, but with strong local differences that are shown to affect the Philippine's policy goals. In a broader perspective the paper accentuates a so far little described link between climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation. This link may merit further attention by policy makers and development planners in order to ensure that policies are economically sound not only in the short but also medium term.

  11. Underbalanced foam drilling : production optimization and risk mitigation for CBM projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campbell, L. [Weatherford Canada, Bonnyville, AB (Canada); Bennion, B. [Hycal Energy Research Laboratories Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2003-07-01

    Naturally fractured, coalbed methane (CBM) reservoirs possess a cleat system which forms the macropore system that contributes primarily to the permeability of the reservoir. The author discussed horizontal wells, indicating that the length is important and that fewer and longer horizontal well exploitation strategies can offset the cost of horizontal drilling. To maximize production, it is imperative to avoid formation damage. A discussion of mechanical damage mechanisms was presented. Formation damage takes place when the solids in the drilling fluid are similar in size or smaller than the cleat width. Chemical damage mechanisms were also discussed. A CBM formation damage study has been performed, involving samples taken form the McRae coal seam in southwestern Alberta, and the samples were cast in epoxy resin to maintain cleat integrity. Plugs measuring 3.81 centimetres were drilled out for testing. Sample preparation was described. Underbalanced drilling techniques were discussed with particular emphasis on drilling with foam. Issues associated with horizontal drilling in CBM reservoirs include poor hole cleaning, wellbore instability, lost circulation, differential sticking, and water inflows. It was concluded that overbalanced drill-in fluids cause severe formation damage in CBM, as shown by core flush testing results. refs., tabs., figs.

  12. Analysis of mitigating measures during steam/hydrogen distributions in nuclear reactor containments with the 3D field code gasflow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Royl, P.; Travis, J.R.; Haytcher, E.A.; Wilkening, H. [Forschungszentrum Technik und Umwelt Karlsruhe (Germany)

    1997-03-01

    This paper reports on the recent model additions to the 3D field code GASFLOW and on validation and application analyses for steam/hydrogen transport with inclusion of mitigation measures. The results of the 3D field simulation of the HDR test E11.2 are summarized. Results from scoping analyses that simulate different modes of CO2 inertization for conditions from the HDR test T31.5 are presented. The last part discusses different ways of recombiner modeling during 3D distribution simulations and gives the results from validation calculations for the HDR recombiner test E11.8.1 and the Battelle test MC3. The results demonstrate that field code simulations with computer codes like GASFLOW are feasible today for complex containment geometries and that they are necessary for a reliable prediction of hydrogen/steam distribution and mitigation effects. (author)

  13. Measures for preventing and mitigating severe accidents of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Safety goals, integrity of the containment, accident management, functions of existing equipment and measures and emergency preparedness are discussed as technical basis for implementing the new safety code on the nuclear power plant safety design (HAF-0200(91)). The main quantitative safety goals are presented as core melt frequency -5/ry for new plants and -4/ry for existing or constructed plants, and 0.1% I, Cs release frequency-6/ry. To keep the integrity of the containment, main efforts should be placed on the prevention of early failure of the containment and by pass or isolation failures. Should a late failure of the containment occur at a high probability, measures such as filtering vent should be considered. The leak rate of the containment could be higher than the previous 0.1-0.5 wt%/day, depending on the source term and dose results. But, a limiting leak rate of 1 wt%/day is defined. Accident management involves emergency operating procedures, training and retraining for the AM and adding some supporting equipment and display and diagnostic system for the AM. Those requirements are described. Emergency preparedness and measures can reduced the risk significantly. In the most case of accidents, sheltering is preferred as an effective protective actions

  14. Simulation based approach for measuring concentration risk

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Joocheol; Lee, Duyeol

    2007-01-01

    Asymptotic Single Risk Factor (ASRF) model is used to derive the regulatory capital formula of Internal Ratings-Based approach in the new Basel accord (Basel II). One of the important assumptions in ASRF model for credit risk is that the given portfolio is well diversified so that one can easily calculate the required capital level by focusing only on systematic risk. In real world, however, idiosyncratic risk of a portfolio cannot be fully diversified away, causing the so called concentratio...

  15. Two dimensional CFD analysis of shock wave propagation for developing mitigation measures of severe accident explosive loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After Fukushima accident, a new need is raised for preserving integrity of vital components and structures in a nuclear power plant against blast waves from hydrogen and steam explosion during a severe accident. A research is underway for developing hydrodynamic and/or mechanical measures for mitigating such shock waves. For the research, an analysis methodology and its validation for shock wave propagation through diverse media of air, water or mixture and reflection/damping via such measures is important. As a starting point of the development, CFD method is applied for prediction of shock wave propagation in an existing shock tube experiment. And the results are discussed by comparing with previous analyses

  16. Two dimensional CFD analysis of shock wave propagation for developing mitigation measures of severe accident explosive loads

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jin Su; Park, Jong Woon [Dongguk Univ., GyeongJu (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-10-15

    After Fukushima accident, a new need is raised for preserving integrity of vital components and structures in a nuclear power plant against blast waves from hydrogen and steam explosion during a severe accident. A research is underway for developing hydrodynamic and/or mechanical measures for mitigating such shock waves. For the research, an analysis methodology and its validation for shock wave propagation through diverse media of air, water or mixture and reflection/damping via such measures is important. As a starting point of the development, CFD method is applied for prediction of shock wave propagation in an existing shock tube experiment. And the results are discussed by comparing with previous analyses.

  17. <> note on portfolio selections under various risk measures

    OpenAIRE

    Giorgi, Enrico Giovanni

    2002-01-01

    This work gives a brief overview of the portfolio selection problem following the mean-risk approach first proposed by Markowitz (1952). We consider various risk measures, i.e. variance, value-at-risk and expected-shortfall and we study the efficient frontiers obtained by solving the portfolio selection problem under these measures. We show that under the assumption that returns are normally distributed, the efficient frontiers obtained by taking value-at-risk or expected-shortfall are subset...

  18. The Belgian Risk Perception Barometer Risk Perception Measuring Instruments Revisited

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aeken, Koen van; Carle, Benny; Hardeman, Frank [SCK-CEN, Mol (Belgium). PISA

    2006-09-15

    The recognition of the societal dimension of risk assessment has been at the cradle of the opinion research on risks. Since risk estimates are not fixed by experts anymore, but are considered to show variation across a diverse population, the people themselves must be asked how they experience the risks. Following the rise in popularity of risk assessment and the recognition of its 'human' dimension, the demand for public opinion surveys on risks has been increasing at a fast pace. Unfortunately, this high demand sees some negative consequences. First, surveys are frequently conducted by people lacking even a minimal knowledge of survey methodology. In this respect, we might think of a journal or a newspaper trying to impress their readers with the definitive public opinion poll about the latest issue in vogue. Second, time pressure causes experienced or trained researchers to lower themselves to 'quick and dirty' work. While methodologically flawed opinion research might not be something to worry about when appearing in the amusement press, concern is due if the results of a survey inspire policy development. Indeed, when public opinion research is conceived as an instrument to support rational, evidence based public policy, the strictest methodological standards should be applied, even if it is clear that scientific research will never substitute political reasoning. This contribution deals with the safeguarding and enhancing of the quality of large scale surveys focusing on risk perception and related issues. This attention is relevant, not only for the reason that methodological standards may be flawed due to the immense popularity of the opinion poll, but also because the results of opinion surveys may have far-reaching policy consequences.

  19. The Belgian Risk Perception Barometer Risk Perception Measuring Instruments Revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The recognition of the societal dimension of risk assessment has been at the cradle of the opinion research on risks. Since risk estimates are not fixed by experts anymore, but are considered to show variation across a diverse population, the people themselves must be asked how they experience the risks. Following the rise in popularity of risk assessment and the recognition of its 'human' dimension, the demand for public opinion surveys on risks has been increasing at a fast pace. Unfortunately, this high demand sees some negative consequences. First, surveys are frequently conducted by people lacking even a minimal knowledge of survey methodology. In this respect, we might think of a journal or a newspaper trying to impress their readers with the definitive public opinion poll about the latest issue in vogue. Second, time pressure causes experienced or trained researchers to lower themselves to 'quick and dirty' work. While methodologically flawed opinion research might not be something to worry about when appearing in the amusement press, concern is due if the results of a survey inspire policy development. Indeed, when public opinion research is conceived as an instrument to support rational, evidence based public policy, the strictest methodological standards should be applied, even if it is clear that scientific research will never substitute political reasoning. This contribution deals with the safeguarding and enhancing of the quality of large scale surveys focusing on risk perception and related issues. This attention is relevant, not only for the reason that methodological standards may be flawed due to the immense popularity of the opinion poll, but also because the results of opinion surveys may have far-reaching policy consequences

  20. Using high-resolution phosphorus data to investigate mitigation measures in headwater river catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, J. M.; Jordan, P.; Arnscheidt, J.

    2015-01-01

    This study reports the use of high-resolution water quality monitoring to assess the influence of changes in land use management on total phosphorus (TP) transfers in two 5 km2 agricultural sub-catchments. Specifically, the work investigates the issue of agricultural soil P management and subsequent diffuse transfers at high river flows over a 5-year timescale. The work also investigates the phenomenon of low flow P pollution from septic tank systems (STSs) and mitigation efforts - a key concern for catchment management. Results showed an inconsistent response to soil P management over 5 years with one catchment showing a convergence to optimum P concentrations and the other an overall increase. Both catchments indicated an overall increase in P concentration in defined high flow ranges. Low flow P concentration showed little change or higher P concentrations in defined low flow ranges despite replacement of defective systems and this is possibly due to a number of confounding reasons including increased housing densities due to new-builds. The work indicates fractured responses to catchment management advice and mitigation and that the short to medium term may be an insufficient time to expect the full implementation of policies (here defined as convergence to optimum soil P concentration and mitigation of STSs) and also to gauge their effectiveness.

  1. Using high-resolution phosphorus data to investigate mitigation measures in headwater river catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Campbell

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study reports the use of high resolution water quality monitoring to assess the influence of changes in landuse management on total phosphorus (TP transfers in two 5 km2 agricultural sub-catchments. Specifically, the work investigates the "wicked problem" of agricultural soil P management and subsequent diffuse transfers at high river flows over a five year timescale. The work also investigates the phenomenon of low flow P pollution from septic tank systems (STS and mitigation efforts – here termed the "filthy issue" of rural catchment management. Results showed an inconsistent response to soil P management over five years with one catchment showing a convergence to optimum P concentrations and the other an overall increase. Both catchments indicated an overall increase in P concentration in defined high flow ranges. Low flow P concentration showed little change or higher P concentrations in defined low flow ranges despite replacement of defective systems and this is possibly due to a number of confounding reasons including increased housing densities due to new-builds. The work indicates fractured responses to catchment management advice and mitigation and that the short to medium term may be an insufficient time to expect the full implementation of policies (here defined as convergence to optimum soil P concentration and mitigation of STS and also to gauge their effectiveness.

  2. Measuring, and identifying predictors of, women's perceptions of three types of breast cancer risk: population risk, absolute risk and comparative risk

    OpenAIRE

    Apicella, C.; Peacock, S. J.; Andrews, L.; Tucker, K.; Daly, M. B.; Hopper, J. L.

    2009-01-01

    Although a key function of cancer genetics services is to provide risk information, to date there has been little consistency in the way in which breast cancer risk perception has been measured. The aims of the study were to measure estimates of (i) population risk, (ii) absolute risk and (iii) comparative risk of developing breast cancer for Ashkenazi Jewish women, and to determine predictors of breast cancer risk perception. Of 152 women, 107 (70%) completed all questions. The mean (s.d.) e...

  3. HAZARD RISK ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT IN CONSTRUCTION SECTOR OF PAKISTAN

    OpenAIRE

    Muhammad Haseeb -; Prof. Xinhailu; Aneesa Bib; Wahab Rabbani

    2011-01-01

    Risks are very common in construction sector. Risk is the possibility of suffering loss and the impact of loss on the involved parties. Firstly risk is identified and then risk assessment and analysis is done. Then Risk management and risk mitigation is carried out. Risks affect construction sector negatively and focusing on risk reduction measures is important. Hazards like earthquakes are also main risks affecting construction sector in Pakistan. To counter earthquake risk, the measures of ...

  4. Measuring the risk of an Iranian banking system using Value at Risk (VaR) Model

    OpenAIRE

    Sudabeh Morshedian Rafiee; Zahra Houshmand Neghabi; Ali Feizollahei

    2012-01-01

    Measuring risk of financial institutes and banks plays an important role on managing them. Recent financial turmoil in United States banking system has motivated banking industry to monitor risk factors more closely. In this paper, we present an empirical study to measure the risk of some private banks in Iran called Bank Mellat using Value at Risk (VaR) method. The proposed study collects the necessary information for the fiscal year of 2010 and analyses them using regression analysis. The s...

  5. Validating the backtests of risk measures

    OpenAIRE

    Cotter, John; Zhong, Yan Ping

    2007-01-01

    Financial risk model evaluation or backtesting is a key part of the internal model’s approach to market risk management as laid out by the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision (2004). However there are a number of backtests that may be applied and there is little guidance as to the most appropriate method. The goal of this paper is to analyze the ability of various evaluation methodologies to gauge the accuracy of risk models. We compare evaluation effectiveness using the s...

  6. Bank Risk Measurement: A Critical Evaluation at a European Bank

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gunnar Wahlström

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This article assesses bank management’s perspective on the use and effectiveness of the risk measurement system under Basel II that setcapital requirements for banks. These requirements encouraged the use of risk measurement. Semi-structured interviews with various bank managers at Viking Bank (a fictitious name provide the empirical data for this research. These interviews were conducted after the global financial crisis that led, among other events, to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. Viking Bank was an important European bank that embraced Basel II and risk measurement. In its efforts to implement risk measurement, the bank’s management accounting department was reduced and subordinated to the risk measurement department. Risk measurement information became the bank’s primary source of information for some loans. However, in their decision-making, managers showed mixed support for risk measurement that had, in some instances, become disconnected from operations. For other loans, they preferred to use their so-called Expert Judgement. The narrow and limited career paths available for the risk measurement specialists also reflected the decreased influence of risk measurement on decision-making at the bank.

  7. GHG (Greenhouse Gases) emission inventory and mitigation measures for public district heating plants in the Republic of Serbia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As a non-Annex I Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol signatory, the Republic of Serbia has committed to develop GHG (Greenhouse Gases) emission inventory and prepare comprehensive program of mitigation measures at national level. The paper presents results of 2000–2008 GHG emission inventory assembled for PDH (Public District Heating) sub-sector in accordance with revised IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Tier 1 methodology. Evaluation of proposed mitigation measures was performed based on 2012 and 2015 GHG emission projections, obtained for basic and four alternative scenarios, all characterized by the same energy demand but with different fuel mix used. The first alternative scenario addresses GHG emissions in case that solid fuel is substituted by natural gas. The second alternative scenario represents a sub-scenario of the first alternative scenario, with additional substitution of liquid fuel with locally available biomass. Third alternative scenario addresses emissions resulting from complete fuel switch from natural gas to liquid fuel oil, while the final alternative scenario considers the case when natural gas is the only energy resource used. GHG emission trends in the period until 2015, examined in case of previously mentioned basic and four alternative scenarios, point out to the positive impact of fuel switch on GHG emission reduction and pathways for future implementation of proposed mitigation measures. Results obtained clearly quantified assumption that fuel substitution by locally available biomass could solve environmental problems, overcome problems associated with high prices of imported fuels, improve energy supply security and increase local employment

  8. Why changing the way to measure the risk ?

    OpenAIRE

    Salvi, Olivier; Gaston, Didier

    1999-01-01

    The SEVESO II Directive gives the rules to identify high risk potential establishments with the amount of hazardous substances handled and their operators have to produce safety reports. Although rules are well established to identify potential risk, there is no method to measure the risk level which takes into account safety devices and safety management Systems implemented by operators.

  9. Risk Measurement and Risk Modelling using Applications of Vine Copulas

    OpenAIRE

    Allen, David E.; Mcaleer, Michael; Singh, Abhay K.

    2014-01-01

    This paper features an application of Regular Vine copulas which are a novel and recently developed statistical and mathematical tool which can be applied in the assessment of composite financial risk. Copula-based dependence modelling is a popular tool in financial applications, but is usually applied to pairs of securities. By contrast, Vine copulas provide greater flexibility and permit the modelling of complex dependency patterns using the rich variety of bivariate copulas which may be ar...

  10. Risk measurement and management in a crisis-prone world

    OpenAIRE

    Wong, Woon K.; Copeland, Laurence

    2008-01-01

    The current subprime crisis has prompted us to look again into the nature of risk at the tail of the distribution. In particular, we investigate the risk contribution of an asset, which has infrequent but huge losses, to a portfolio using two risk measures, namely Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). While ES is found to measure the tail risk contribution effectively, VaR is consistent with intuition only if the underlying return distribution is well behaved. To facilitate the use...

  11. Evaluating the effectiveness of urban energy conservation and GHG mitigation measures: The case of Xiamen city, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    To assess the effectiveness of urban energy conservation and GHG mitigation measures, a detailed Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model is developed and applied to analyze the future trends of energy demand and GHG emissions in Xiamen city. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future energy strategies in relation to the development of Xiamen city. The 'Business as Usual' scenario assumes that the government will do nothing to influence the long-term trends of urban energy demand. An 'Integrated' scenario, on the other hand, is generated to assess the cumulative impact of a series of available reduction measures: clean energy substitution, industrial energy conservation, combined heat and power generation, energy conservation in building, motor vehicle control, and new and renewable energy development and utilization. The reduction potentials in energy consumption and GHG emissions are estimated for a time span of 2007-2020 under these different scenarios. The calculation results in Xiamen show that the clean energy substitution measure is the most effective in terms of energy saving and GHG emissions mitigation, while the industrial sector has the largest abatement potential.

  12. Cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gases mitigation measures in the European agro-forestry sector: a literature survey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Povellato, Andrea [Istituto Nazionale di Economia Agraria (INEA), Via dell' Universita, 14, I-35020 Legnaro (PD) (Italy); Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Castello, 5252, I-30122 Venice (Italy); Bosello, Francesco [Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Castello, 5252, I-30122 Venice (Italy); Giupponi, Carlo [Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Castello, 5252, I-30122 Venice (Italy) and Universita degli Studi di Milano, Dipartimento di Produzione Vegetale, Via Celoria, 2, I-20133 Milan (Italy)]. E-mail: carlo.giupponi@unimi.it

    2007-08-15

    Over the last 20 years, climate change has become an increasing concern for scientists, public opinions and policy makers. Due to the pervasive nature of its impacts for many important aspects of human life, climate change is likely to influence and be influenced by the most diverse policy or management choices. This is particularly true for those interventions affecting agriculture and forestry: they are strongly dependent on climate phenomena, but also contribute to climate evolution being sources of and sinks for greenhouse gases (GHG). This paper offers a survey of the existing literature assessing cost-effectiveness and efficiency of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies or the effects of broader economic reforms in the agricultural and forestry sectors. The focus is mainly on European countries. Different methodological approaches, research questions addressed and results are examined. The main findings are that agriculture can potentially provide emissions reduction at a competitive cost, mainly with methane abatement, while carbon sequestration seems more cost-effective with appropriate forest management measures. Afforestation, cropland management and bioenergy are less economically viable measures due to competition with other land use. Mitigation policies should be carefully designed either to balance costs with expected benefits in terms of social welfare. Regional variability is one of the main drawbacks to fully assess the cost-effectiveness of different measures. Integration of models to take into account both social welfare and spatial heterogeneity seems to be the frontier of the next model generation.

  13. Spray drift of pesticides and stream macroinvertebrates: Experimental evidence of impacts and effectiveness of mitigation measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maltby, Lorraine [Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN (United Kingdom)], E-mail: l.maltby@sheffield.ac.uk; Hills, Louise [Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN (United Kingdom)

    2008-12-15

    Impoverished stream communities in agricultural landscapes have been associated with pesticide contamination, but conclusive evidence of causality is rare. We address this deficiency by adopting an experimental approach to investigate the effects of the insecticides cypermethrin and chlorpyrifos on benthic macroinvertebrates. Three treatments were established and a combination of biomarker, bioassay and biomonitoring approaches was employed to investigate, individual, population and community-level effects. Animals deployed during pesticide application had altered enzyme activity, depressed feeding rate and reduced survival, but these effects were only observed where pesticide was sprayed to the stream edge. There were no clear pesticide-related effects on macroinvertebrate community structure or on the population densities of individual species. Hence, short-term pesticide exposure did cause individual-level effects in stream macroinvertebrates, but these were not translated to effects at the population or community-level and were effectively mitigated by the adoption of a no-spray buffer zone. - Pulsed pesticide exposures via spray drift adversely affected stream invertebrates but did not cause population or community-level effects and were mitigated by no-spray buffer zones.

  14. Spray drift of pesticides and stream macroinvertebrates: Experimental evidence of impacts and effectiveness of mitigation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Impoverished stream communities in agricultural landscapes have been associated with pesticide contamination, but conclusive evidence of causality is rare. We address this deficiency by adopting an experimental approach to investigate the effects of the insecticides cypermethrin and chlorpyrifos on benthic macroinvertebrates. Three treatments were established and a combination of biomarker, bioassay and biomonitoring approaches was employed to investigate, individual, population and community-level effects. Animals deployed during pesticide application had altered enzyme activity, depressed feeding rate and reduced survival, but these effects were only observed where pesticide was sprayed to the stream edge. There were no clear pesticide-related effects on macroinvertebrate community structure or on the population densities of individual species. Hence, short-term pesticide exposure did cause individual-level effects in stream macroinvertebrates, but these were not translated to effects at the population or community-level and were effectively mitigated by the adoption of a no-spray buffer zone. - Pulsed pesticide exposures via spray drift adversely affected stream invertebrates but did not cause population or community-level effects and were mitigated by no-spray buffer zones

  15. Risk importance measures in the dynamic flowgraph methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents new risk importance measures applicable to a dynamic reliability analysis approach with multi-state components. Dynamic reliability analysis methods are needed because traditional methods, such as fault tree analysis, can describe system's dynamical behaviour only in limited manner. Dynamic flowgraph methodology (DFM) is an approach used for analysing systems with time dependencies and feedback loops. The aim of DFM is to identify root causes of a top event, usually representing the system's failure. Components of DFM models are analysed at discrete time points and they can have multiple states. Traditional risk importance measures developed for static and binary logic are not applicable to DFM as such. Some importance measures have previously been developed for DFM but their ability to describe how components contribute to the top event is fairly limited. The paper formulates dynamic risk importance measures that measure the importances of states of components and take the time-aspect of DFM into account in a logical way that supports the interpretation of results. Dynamic risk importance measures are developed as generalisations of the Fussell-Vesely importance and the risk increase factor. -- Highlights: • New risk importance measures are developed for the dynamic flowgraph methodology. • Dynamic risk importance measures are formulated for states of components. • An approach to handle failure modes of a component in DFM is presented. • Dynamic risk importance measures take failure times into account. • Component's influence on the system's reliability can be analysed in detail

  16. The ICDP-CFDDP Project: Understanding caldera dynamics and mitigating the extreme risk of the most urbanised volcano in the World

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Natale, Giuseppe; Troise, Claudia; Carlino, Stefano; Somma, Renato; Piochi, Monica; Di Vito, Mauro; Isaia, Roberto; De Vita, Sandro; Sacchi, Marco; Josè Jurado, Maria; Wiersberg, Thomas; Kueck, Jochem; Molisso, Flavia; Erzinger, Joerge; Kilburn, Christopher R. J.; Gudmundsson, Agust; Burg, Jean Pierre; Zappone, Alba; Hill, David P.

    2013-04-01

    The Campi Flegrei Deep Drilling Project (CFDDP) entered the operative phase during the second half of 2012, with the pilot hole drilling. The Project was initiated to address two kinds of problems: 1) purely volcanological, to understand in detail the dynamics of the most explosive and yet mostly unknown volcanism on the Earth with the potential to generate global catastrophes, and 2) to mitigate the highest volcanic risk in the World, namely the one associated with the metropolitan area of Naples where more than 3,000,000 people are exposed to extreme risk. The CFDDP Project offers the only direct means to understand the physics driving the on-going ground uplift affecting the area since at least six centuries, through in situ and laboratory measurements of rock rheology and permeability. In particular, direct investigation at depth by drilling is essential for understanding the extent that shallow magma intrusion is involved in the uplift of 15 to 20 m accumulated over the last centuries. Such a high cumulative uplift corresponds to 1-10 km3 of new magma intruded into the system, depending on details of the model used. Such an erupted volume should be conservatively assumed as the worst scenario for a future eruption. This corresponds to a massive eruption, largest than any other one after the caldera-forming Yellow Tuff eruption of 15,000 y BP and not much smaller than that, which would anyway require evacuation of some millions people. An alternative possibility is that the cumulative uplift is mostly due to shallow geothermal perturbations as described in several recent publications. Both possibilities, each with widely differing hazard implications, rely strongly on as yet poorly known conditions at depth beneath the caldera. It is thus crucial to discriminate between these two opposing possibilities in order to clarify the worst scenario for a future eruption and to provide an invaluable tool for civil defence at this densely populated area. This presentation describes preliminary results obtained from CFDDP pilot hole, reaching a final depth of 502 m, which show considerable promise in answering the main open questions. From a volcanological point of view, they enlighten in an unprecedented way the dynamics of the Bagnoli-Fuorigrotta plain, the easternmost part of the caldera and the most densely populated because it includes the city of Naples. Furthermore, they allowed for the first in-situ measurements, at 500 m of depth, of loading stress and fluid-dynamical parameters like permeability, thus already representing a large step forward towards a complete fluid-dynamical interpretation of the ground uplift episodes called 'bradyseism'.

  17. Catalytic combustion of hydrogen for mitigating hydrogen risk in case of a severe accident in a nuclear power plant. Study of catalysts poisoning in a representative atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In case of a severe (beyond design basis) accident in a nuclear power plant, a large amount of hydrogen could be generated by reaction of water of the primary coolant circuit with the fuel rods inside the reactor pressure vessel, and eventually released into the air-filled reactor building. For mitigating the risk of an explosion within the containment, a catalytic combustion of this hydrogen is considered as one of the most efficient counter-measure. The difficulty which is to be overcome is a possible poisoning of the catalyst by fission products and other components released by the damaged core, notwithstanding the fact that most of them enter the containment building as non-reactive large oxide particles. The main vapors which are suspected to have an inhibiting or poisoning effect are indeed di-iodine and methyl iodide, both potentially present in the containment atmosphere. We report on the possible effect of these molecules on Pt, Pd and Pt-Pd model catalysts at lower temperatures and somewhat higher iodine or iodide concentrations, as compared to inferred catalyst operational parameters in a reactor building during a severe accident. In these particular experimental conditions, platinum is substantially poisoned by both vapors. On the other hand, palladium, about 400 times less active than platinum, is much less altered by I2 and ICH3 vapors. A marked beneficial effect was found by alloying the two noble metals: the alloys show only a thro noble metals: the alloys show only a threefold decrease in activity with respect to platinum, and undergo a much weaker deactivation

  18. Nuclear risk reduction measures and restraint regime in South Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A nuclear restraint is a central objective in any nuclear environment. Changing dynamics of the nuclear arena, Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) and Nuclear Risk Reduction Measures (NRRM) are discussed

  19. Mitigation Action Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-02-01

    This Mitigation Action Plan (MAP) focuses on mitigation commitments stated in the Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (SEIS) and the Record of Decision (ROD) for the Naval Petroleum Reserve No. 1 (NPR-1). Specific commitments and mitigation implementation actions are listed in Appendix A-Mitigation Actions, and form the central focus of this MAP. They will be updated as needed to allow for organizational, regulatory, or policy changes. It is the intent of DOE to comply with all applicable federal, state, and local environmental, safety, and health laws and regulations. Eighty-six specific commitments were identified in the SEIS and associated ROD which pertain to continued operation of NPR-1 with petroleum production at the Maximum Efficient Rate (MER). The mitigation measures proposed are expected to reduce impacts as much as feasible, however, as experience is gained in actual implementation of these measures, some changes may be warranted.

  20. Design measures for prevention and mitigation of severe accidents at advanced water cooled reactors. Proceedings of a technical committee meeting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Over 8500 reactor-years of operating experience have been accumulated with the current nuclear energy systems. New generations of nuclear power plants are being developed, building upon this background of experience. During the last decade, requirements for equipment specifically intended to minimize releases of radioactive material to the environment in the event of a core melt accident have been introduced, and designs for new plants include measures for preventing and mitigating a range of severe accident scenarios. The IAEA Technical Committee Meeting on Impact of Severe Accidents on Plant Design and Layout of Advanced Water Cooled Reactors was jointly organized by the Department of Nuclear Energy and the Department of Nuclear Safety to review measures which are being incorporated into advanced water cooled reactor designs for preventing and mitigating severe accidents, the status of experimental and analytical investigations of severe accident phenomena and challenges which support design decisions and accident management procedures, and to understand the impact of explicitly addressing severe accidents on the cost of nuclear power plants. This publication is intended to provide an objective source of information on this topic. It includes 14 papers presented at the Technical Committee meeting held in Vienna between 21-25 October 1996. It also includes a Summary and Findings of the Working Groups. The papers were grouped in three sections. A separate abstract was prepared for each paper

  1. Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques are considered as components of the radiation risk. The influence of the exposure risk on type and extent of radiation protection measurements is discussed with regard to different measuring tasks. Based upon measuring results concerning the frequency of certain external and internal occupational exposures in the GDR, it has been shown that only a small fraction of the monitored persons are subjected to a high exposure risk. As a consequence the following recommendations are presented: occupationally exposed persons with small exposure risk should be monitored using only a long-term desimeter (for instance a thermoluminescence desimeter). In the case of internal exposure, the surface and air contamination levels should be controlled so strictly that routine measurements of internal contamination need not be performed

  2. Construction and measurements of a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system

    CERN Document Server

    Schnee, R W; Ghulam, G; Jardin, D; Kos, M; Tenney, A S

    2014-01-01

    Long-lived alpha and beta emitters in the $^{222}$Rn decay chain on (and near) detector surfaces may be the limiting background in many experiments attempting to detect dark matter or neutrinoless double-beta decay, and in screening detectors. In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto the wires of the BetaCage during its assembly, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at Syracuse University using a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system. The radon filter shows ~20$\\times$ reduction at its output, from 7.47$\\pm$0.56 to 0.37$\\pm$0.12 Bq/m$^3$, and the cleanroom radon activity meets project requirements, with a lowest achieved value consistent with that of the filter, and levels consistently < 2 Bq/m$^3$.

  3. Construction and measurements of a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schnee, R. W.; Bunker, R.; Ghulam, G.; Jardin, D.; Kos, M.; Tenney, A. S. [Department of Physics, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY 13244 (United States)

    2013-08-08

    Long-lived alpha and beta emitters in the {sup 222}Rn decay chain on (and near) detector surfaces may be the limiting background in many experiments attempting to detect dark matter or neutrinoless double beta decay, and in screening detectors. In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto the wires of the Beta Cage during its assembly, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at Syracuse University using a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system. The radon filter shows ?20× reduction at its output, from 7.47±0.56 to 0.37±0.12 Bq/m{sup 3}, and the cleanroom radon activity meets project requirements, with a lowest achieved value consistent with that of the filter, and levels consistently < 2 Bq/m{sup 3}.

  4. Radon mitigation survey among New York State residents living in high radon homes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to evaluate the effectiveness of New York State Department of Health's efforts to increase public awareness about radon risk and to promote radon testing and mitigation in compliance with EPA's guideline, a statewide radon mitigation survey was conducted between September 1995 and January 1996 among New York State residents whose homes had radon levels equal to or greater than 148 Bq m-3 on the first floor (or above) living areas. The survey found that about 60% of 1,113 participants had taken actions for radon mitigation. The percentage of respondents who took actions to reduce radon levels in their homes increased with increasing education level as well as household income level. The method of installing a powered system to provide more ventilation was a more effective mitigation method than opening windows/doors or sealing cracks/openings in the basement. Mitigation performed by contractors was more effective in reducing radon levels than mitigation performed by residents. The reasons for performing radon mitigation given by the majority of respondents were those strongly related to radon health risk. High home radon level was an important motivational factor to stimulate radon mitigation. On the other hand, the cost of radon mitigation was a major barrier in decision making for performing radon mitigation and for selecting mitigation measures

  5. NITRATE TOXICITY IN GROUNDWATER: ITS CLINICAL MANIFESTATIONS, PREVENTIVE MEASURES AND MITIGATION STRATEGIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raaz K. Maheshwari

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater pollution has become a drastic problem principally because of nature and wide spread use of modern chemicals viz. pesticides and fertilizers. Excessive application of fertilizers as well as organic wastes and sewage has been implicated in the nitrogen pollution of groundwater. Therefore, the issue of rising nitrate concentration in groundwater has become a subject of extensive research in India and Rajasthan in particular. In natural water, nitrate ((NO3- N is usually 100ppm and in organic matters (amine and /or amides resulting in the production of nitrosamines (carcinogens. Number of cases (human and livestock, suffering from gastric cancer have been observed. Reverse osmosis (RO process has great potential in the mitigation of nitrate ion containing waters. Generally, the presence of particular substances may affect the removal of specific ions. The presence of di-hydrogen phosphate ions (DHP-ions in the feed solution enhances the nitrate removal efficiency of the polyamide RO membrane. In this present research work, a Flmtec TW30, polyamide thin-film composite, RO membrane was used for nitrate removal through RO set up. The rejection of individual nitrate was found to be around 76%. After addition of KH2¬PO4 to the feed containing nitrate ions the rejection was improved up to 84. This high level of increment in rejection of nitrate ion indicates the possible usage of KH2¬PO4 in RO for nitrate removal. This fact of removal is due to the K+ ions binding to the electronic lone-pairs of polyamide membrane holding di-hydrogen phosphate ions. This establishes a negative layer on the surface of the membrane. The diffusion of nitrate through the membrane is diminished by the formed layer. Present manuscript delineates clinical manifestations of nitrate toxicity and mitigation of nitrate ion by means of state-of-the-art reverse osmosis technology.

  6. CO{sub 2}-mitigation measures through reduction of fossil fuel burning in power utilities. Which road to go?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaupp, A. [Energetica International Inc., Suva (Fiji)

    1996-12-31

    Five conditions, at minimum, should be examined in the comparative analysis of CO{sub 2}-mitigation options for the power sector. Under the continuing constraint of scarce financial resources for any private or public investment in the power sector, the following combination of requirements characterise a successful CO{sub 2}-mitigation project: (1) Financial attractiveness for private or public investors. (2) Low, or even negative, long range marginal costs per ton of `CO{sub 2} saved`. (3) High impact on CO{sub 2}-mitigation, which indicates a large market potential for the measure. (4) The number of individual investments required to achieve the impact is relatively small. In other words, logistical difficulties in project implementation are minimised. (5) The projects are `socially fair` and have minimal negative impact on any segment of the society. This paper deals with options to reduce carbonaceous fuel burning in the power sector. Part I explains how projects should be selected and classified. Part II describes the technical options. Since reduction of carbonaceous fuel burning may be achieved through Demand Side Management (DSM) and Supply Side Management (SSM) both are treated. Within the context of this paper SSM does not mean to expand power supply as demand grows. It means to economically generate and distribute power as efficiently as possible. In too many instances DSM has degenerated into efficient lighting programs and utility managed incentives and rebate programs. To what extent this is a desirable situation for utilities in Developing Countries that face totally different problems as their counterparts in highly industrialised countries remains to be seen. Which road to go is the topic of this paper.

  7. Marel´s expansions in Vietnam: maximizing the returns and mitigating the risks : can Export Credit Agencies help?

    OpenAIRE

    Dinh, Trung Quang

    2012-01-01

    When private companies engage in cross border trade and/or investments in emerging market economies they are faced with risks that are different from risks in domestic markets. Emerging markets can offer opportunities for high returns, but at the same time the risks, including both commercial and non-commercial risks, can be high. Those risks need to be managed. Many private companies in developed economies and their business partners in emerging markets, including Vietnam, do not seem to be ...

  8. Measures of risk for the classical risk process using saddlepoint approximation techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumgartner, Benjamin

    2012-09-01

    Focussing on the classical Cramér-Lundberg risk process, the main goal of this work is to provide an evaluation method for the insurer risk due to ruin over an infinite time horizon. In analogy to the well-known value of risk and tail value of risk, Gatto and Baumgartner [1] suggest the risk measures value at ruin and tail value at ruin for risk processes with additional Wiener perturbation as well as saddlepoint approximations to those risk measures. Since the special case with no perturbation is not discussed there, this is done here using the same ideas. In essence, the saddlepoint approximation method for obtaining quantiles provided by Wang [2] is combined with saddlepoint approximation results of Barndorff-Nielsen and Schmidli [3].

  9. Qualitative risk assessment in a data-scarce environment: a model to assess the impact of control measures on spread of African Swine Fever.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieland, Barbara; Dhollander, Sofie; Salman, Mo; Koenen, Frank

    2011-04-01

    In the absence of data, qualitative risk assessment frameworks have proved useful to assess risks associated with animal health diseases. As part of a scientific opinion for the European Commission (EC) on African Swine Fever (ASF), a working group of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) assessed the risk of ASF remaining endemic in Trans Caucasus Countries (TCC) and the Russian Federation (RF) and the risk of ASF becoming endemic in the EU if disease were introduced. The aim was to develop a tool to evaluate how current control or preventive measures mitigate the risk of spread and giving decision makers the means to review how strengthening of surveillance and control measures would mitigate the risk of disease spread. Based on a generic model outlining disease introduction, spread and endemicity in a region, the impact of risk mitigation measures on spread of disease was assessed for specific risk questions. The resulting hierarchical models consisted of key steps containing several sub-steps. For each step of the risk pathways risk estimates were determined by the expert group based on existing data or through expert opinion elicitation. Risk estimates were combined using two different combination matrices, one to combine estimates of independent steps and one to combine conditional probabilities. The qualitative risk assessment indicated a moderate risk that ASF will remain endemic in current affected areas in the TCC and RF and a high risk of spread to currently unaffected areas. If introduced into the EU, ASF is likely to be controlled effectively in the production sector with high or limited biosecurity. In the free range production sector, however, there is a moderate risk of ASF becoming endemic due to wild boar contact, non-compliance with animal movement bans, and difficult access to all individual pigs upon implementation of control measures. This study demonstrated the advantages of a systematic framework to assist an expert panel to carry out a risk assessment as it helped experts to disassociate steps in the risk pathway and to overcome preconceived notions of final risk estimates. The approach presented here shows how a qualitative risk assessment framework can address animal diseases with complexity in their spread and control measures and how transparency of the resulting estimates was achieved. PMID:21292336

  10. Feasibility of Portfolio Optimization under Coherent Risk Measures

    OpenAIRE

    Kondor, Imre; Varga-haszonits, Istvan

    2008-01-01

    It is shown that the axioms for coherent risk measures imply that whenever there is an asset in a portfolio that dominates the others in a given sample (which happens with finite probability even for large samples), then this portfolio cannot be optimized under any coherent measure on that sample, and the risk measure diverges to minus infinity. This instability was first discovered on the special example of Expected Shortfall which is used here both as an illustration and a...

  11. Noise sensitivity of portfolio selection under various risk measures

    OpenAIRE

    Kondor, Imre; Pafka, Szilard; Nagy, Gabor

    2006-01-01

    We study the sensitivity to estimation error of portfolios optimized under various risk measures, including variance, absolute deviation, expected shortfall and maximal loss. We introduce a measure of portfolio sensitivity and test the various risk measures by considering simulated portfolios of varying sizes N and for different lengths T of the time series. We find that the effect of noise is very strong in all the investigated cases, asymptotically it only depends on the r...

  12. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology Rev 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Documentation of the methodology used to calculate relative hazard and risk measure results for the DOE complex wide risk profiles. This methodology is used on major site risk profiles. In February 1997, the Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) was created and charged as a technical, field-based partner to the Office of Science and Risk Policy (EM-52). One of the initial charges to the CRE is to assist the sites in the development of ''site risk profiles.'' These profiles are to be relatively short summaries (periodically updated) that present a broad perspective on the major risk related challenges that face the respective site. The risk profiles are intended to serve as a high-level communication tool for interested internal and external parties to enhance the understanding of these risk-related challenges. The risk profiles for each site have been designed to qualitatively present the following information: (1) a brief overview of the site, (2) a brief discussion on the historical mission of the site, (3) a quote from the site manager indicating the site's commitment to risk management, (4) a listing of the site's top risk-related challenges, (5) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's current risk picture, (6) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's future risk reduction picture, and (7) graphic illustrations of the projected management of the relative hazards at the site. The graphic illustrations were included to provide the rlustrations were included to provide the reader of the risk profiles with a high-level mental picture to associate with all the qualitative information presented in the risk profile. Inclusion of these graphic illustrations presented the CRE with the challenge of how to fold this high-level qualitative risk information into a system to produce a numeric result that would depict the relative change in hazard, associated with each major risk management action, so it could be presented graphically. This report presents the methodology developed to produce the graphic illustrations showing the relative hazard and risk reductions that occur as a result of a site's projected risk management actions. The evaluation of relative hazard values is described and illustrated first (Sections 2 and 3) followed by the risk measure evaluations (Sections 4 and 5)

  13. A Non-Gaussian Approach to Risk Measures

    CERN Document Server

    Bormetti, G; Montagna, G; Nicrosini, O

    2006-01-01

    Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modeling the power-law tails of the returns distribution in terms of a Student-t distribution. Non-Gaussian closed-form solutions for Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall are obtained and standard formulae known in the literature under the normality assumption are recovered as a special case. The implications of the approach for risk management are demonstrated through an empirical analysis of financial time series from the Italian stock market and in comparison with the results of the most widely used procedures of quantitative finance. Particular attention is paid to quantify the size of the errors affecting the market risk measures obtained according to different methodologies, by employing a bootstrap technique.

  14. Downgrading Complexity in the Exxon Valdez Crisis: Using Information as a Risk Mitigation Tool in Complex Adaptive Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Eric Snow

    2010-01-01

     

    In a high-stakes crisis environment, trial and error can be too costly an approach. The Exxon Valdez oil spill provides an example of how complex adaptive systems can have simple, preventable problems and complex, unpredictable problems can come together with disastrous consequences. Not every possible contingency can be accounted for. However, research and experience can be applied to mitigate these type...

  15. Alternative measures of risk of extreme events in decision trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A need for a methodology to control the extreme events, defined as low-probability, high-consequence incidents, in sequential decisions is identified. A variety of alternative and complementary measures of the risk of extreme events are examined for their usability as objective functions in sequential decisions, represented as single- or multiple-objective decision trees. Earlier work had addressed difficulties, related to non-separability, with the minimization of some measures of the risk of extreme events in sequential decisions. In an extension of these results, it is shown how some non-separable measures of the risk of extreme events can be interpreted in terms of separable constituents of risk, thereby enabling a wider class of measures of the risk of extreme events to be handled in a straightforward manner in a decision tree. Also for extreme events, results are given to enable minimax- and Hurwicz-criterion analyses in decision trees. An example demonstrates the incorporation of different measures of the risk of extreme events in a multi-objective decision tree. Conceptual formulations for optimizing non-separable measures of the risk of extreme events are identified as an important area for future investigation

  16. Measurement and mitigation of methane emissions from beef cattle in tropical grazing systems: a perspective from Australia and Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berndt, A; Tomkins, N W

    2013-06-01

    The growing global demand for food of animal origin will be the incentive for countries such as Australia and Brazil to increase their beef production and international exports. This increased supply of beef is expected to occur primarily through on-farm productivity increases. The strategies for reducing resultant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions should be evaluated in the context of the production system and should encompass a broader analysis, which would include the emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) and carbon sequestration. This paper provides an insight into CH4 measurement techniques applicable to grazing environments and proposed mitigation strategies, with relevance to the production systems that are predominant in grazing systems of Australia and Brazil. Research and technology investment in both Australia and Brazil is aimed at developing measurement techniques and increasing the efficiency of cattle production by improving herd genetics, utilization of the seasonal feed-base and reducing the proportion of metabolizable energy lost as CH4. Concerted efforts in these areas can be expected to reduce the number of unproductive animals, reduce age at slaughter and inevitably reduce emission intensity (EI) from beef production systems. Improving efficiency of livestock production systems in tropical grazing systems for Australia and Brazil will be based on cultivated and existing native pastures and the use of additives and by-products from other agricultural sectors. This approach spares grain-based feed reserves typically used for human consumption, but potentially incurs a heavier EI than current intensive feeding systems. The determination of GHG emissions and the value of mitigation outcomes for entire beef production systems in the extensive grazing systems is complex and require a multidisciplinary approach. It is fortunate that governments in both Australia and Brazil are supporting ongoing research activities. Nevertheless, to achieve an outcome that feeds a growing population while reducing emissions on a global scale continues to be a monumental challenge for ruminant nutritionists. PMID:23739477

  17. The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the motivational density, to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion

  18. On the Capital Allocation Problem for a New Coherent Risk Measure in Collective Risk Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Hirbod, Assa; Manuel, Morales; Hassan, Omidi Firouzi

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we introduce a new coherent cumulative risk measure on $\\mathcal{R}_L^p$, the space of c\\`adl\\`ag processes having Laplace transform. This new coherent risk measure turns out to be tractable enough within a class of models where the aggregate claims is driven by a spectrally positive L\\'evy process. Moreover, we study the problem of capital allocation in an insurance context and we show that the capital allocation problem for this risk measure has a unique solu...

  19. Central limit theorems for law-invariant coherent risk measures

    OpenAIRE

    Belomestny, Denis; Kra?tschmer, Volker

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we study the asymptotic properties of the canonical plug-in estimates for law-invariant coherent risk measures. Under rather mild conditions not relying on the explicit representation of the risk measure under consideration, we first prove a central limit theorem for independent identically distributed data and then extend it to the case of weakly dependent ones. Finally, a number of illustrating examples is presented.

  20. Alocação e mitigação dos riscos em parcerias público-privadas no Brasil / Asignación y mitigación de riesgos en la colaboración público-privada en Brasil / Allocating and mitigating risks in public-private partnerships in Brazil

    Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

    Carlos Marcio Campos, Lima; Antonio Carlos, Coelho.

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available O objetivo da pesquisa foi efetuar levantamento das condições referentes à distribuição de risco nas formalizações das parcerias público-privadas no Brasil, a partir do marco legal que instituiu tal forma de implantação de equipamentos sociais no Brasil. Foram avaliados, por pesquisa documental, com [...] o os fatores de riscos estão sendo alocados e distribuídos em 15 contratos celebrados, buscando determinar como são mitigados os riscos inerentes entre os parceiros públicos e privados. Os contratos apresentam definição expressiva dos riscos envolvidos e de sua responsabilidade pelos parceiros. As evidências sinalizaram que os parceiros privados têm absorvido, formalmente, a maioria dos fatores de riscos elencados; contudo, há expressas medidas de mitigação dos riscos atribuídos nos contratos ao parceiro privado, pela intervenção em última instância do ente público envolvido. Abstract in spanish The objective of the research was to survey conditions regarding risk sharing in public-private partnerships contracting in Brazil, from the legal framework establishment that allowed such social equipment deployment in Brazil. It was evaluated through documentary research how the risk factors are b [...] eing allocated and distributed in 15 contracts, seeking to determine how the risks are mitigated between the public and private partners. The contracts have expressive definition of the risks involved and their liability for the partners. The evidences indicated that private partners have formally absorbed most of the risk factors listed; however, there are express risks' mitigation measures granted in contracts to the private partner, by intervention in last instance of the public entity involved. Abstract in english El objetivo de la investigación fue inspeccionar las condiciones en cuanto a la distribución del riesgo en contrataciones por la colaboración público-privada en Brasil, desde que el marco legal estableció tal despliegue de equipamiento social en Brasil. Fueron evaluados, por investigación documental [...] , como los factores de riesgo están siendo asignados y distribuidos en 15 contratos, buscando determinar cómo se mitigan los riesgos entre los socios públicos y privados. Los contratos tienen expresiva definición de los riesgos y su responsabilidad definida para los socios. La evidencia indica que los socios privados formalmente han absorbido la mayoría de los factores de riesgo mencionados; Sin embargo, hay medidas de mitigación de riesgo expreso otorgadas en contratos con el socio privado, por la intervención en última instancia de la entidad pública que se trate.

  1. Comprehensive assessments of measures mitigating heat island phenomena in urban areas; Heat shinku wo riyoshita daikibo reibo system no kaihatsu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ishitani, H.; Yamada, K.; Yamaji, K.; Matsuhashi, T.; Iizuka, E.; Suzuki, T.; Genchi, H.; Komiyama, H. [The University of Tokyo, Tokyo (Japan)

    1997-02-01

    This paper describes actual condition and measures against heat island (HI) phenomena in large urban areas with buildings. Tokyo was selected as a model. To extract typical pattern of daily change of air temperature, statistic analysis was conducted using the existing air temperature data at 100 points in and near the city of Tokyo. As a result, five patterns were obtained, i.e., central city, sea/land water affecting zone, thickly settled suburbs, garden city, and countryside. Each one point was selected in each pattern, to measure the underground temperature. It was found that the effect of HI can be easily evaluated from the underground temperature. It was suggested that the HI effect in the central city is estimated to be around 3.6 {degree}C. The measures mitigating HI were divided into the thermal balance improvement in the whole district and the temperature improvement of living space by homogenization or inhomogenization. Energy conservation was investigated for improving the thermal balance which can be practically conducted. According to the measures, it was found that the air temperature in the central city can be decreased by about 0.5 {degree}C at maximum. 3 figs., 1 tab.

  2. Mitigating Case Mix Factors by Choice of Glycemic Control Performance Measure Threshold

    OpenAIRE

    Bainbridge, Kathleen E.; Cowie, Catherine C.; Rust, Keith F.; Fradkin, Judith E.

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE—Performance measures are tools for assessing quality of care but may be influenced by patient factors. We investigated how currently endorsed performance measures for glycemic control in diabetes may be influenced by case mix composition. We assessed differences in A1C performance measure threshold attainment by case mix factors for A1C >9% and examined how lowering the threshold to A1C >8% or >7% changed these differences.

  3. Prediction and Mitigation of the Effects of Catastrophic Fire on Water Supplies: Science for Risk Reduction and Planning for Future Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, D. A.; Tindall, J.

    2008-12-01

    Precipitation falling on forests and grasslands provides much of the water to communities across the United States. The U.S. Forest Service estimates that over 3,400 communities are served by water draining land under its jurisdiction alone. Much of this land is subject to wildland fires, which have been increasing in size and severity in the western United States in response to climatic forcing and increased ignitions from human sources. Runoff from burned landscapes can present a significant risk to municipal and agricultural water supplies from ash, sediment, contaminants from burned structures, and fire-fighting chemicals. Several municipalities, including Denver, Colorado, have experienced both short-term and long-term degradation of their water supplies in the aftermath of fires in watersheds upstream from drinking water reservoirs. Scientific efforts to predict and mitigate the effects of catastrophic fire on water supplies have focused on three areas. The first consists of data collection and carefully designed experiments to understand the change of the hydrologic behavior of burned watersheds in response to rain with different intensities, durations, and trajectories as the watersheds recover. Results from these studies are used to validate models that predict watershed response under different initial conditions constrained by remotely-sensed burn severity, topography, rainfall-intensity recurrence probabilities and other factors. These predictions are the basis for rehabilitation measures applied to the landscape to minimize post-fire runoff and erosion. Efforts are under way to incorporate the chemical effects of ash and fire-fighting compounds in decision-support tools. A second area of scientific focus is the characterization of the chemical and physical properties of ash from wildland fire, including ash from structures consumed by fire. The ash chemistry is correlated to remotely- sensed data, type of vegetation that burned, and the underlying geology. Ash affects the hydraulic properties and behavior of soils in burned watersheds while it still mantles the hillslopes, but it is easily delivered to water bodies by rain and wind as a flush of material that affects water chemistry and properties like turbidity and temperature. A third thrust is to identify watersheds that are critical to the function of municipal water supplies and infrastructure to determine their vulnerability to fire and post-fire effects. This information can be used to prioritize areas for fuel treatments or land management practices to minimize the probability of high severity fire and hence the effects of post-fire runoff. Scientific studies are providing crucial information about such topics as changes in soil erodibility, infiltration and runoff after fire, and the effects of vegetation recovery. Even in watersheds where land management actions are limited by topography or land use designation, such as wilderness areas, knowledge of the potential response of burned areas allows water providers to develop rapid-response and long-term plans based on scientific data and tools. Some climate change models are predicting hotter, drier temperatures in certain areas of the United States and a higher probability of larger, more severe wildfires. These predictions have a direct bearing on the potential risk of impairment of water supplies by post-fire runoff and erosion. In an era when water availability and quality are of utmost importance, careful scientific studies focused on the effects of wildland fire on water supplies will continue to inform public policy and decision making on topics of vulnerability and risk reduction.

  4. Risk Management Plan; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this Risk Management Plan (RMP) is to establish the concept and define the process to assure that National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Operations Office Environmental Management (NNSA/NV EM) programs and projects incorporate appropriate, efficient, cost-effective measures to mitigate the impact of program-and/or project-related risks. In addition, it describes the roles and responsibilities of program personnel in performing the risk management functions, and defines reporting and tracking requirements for risk-related information. The product of this risk analysis will be a risk analysis report listing the various risks with their classification, mitigation and handling strategies, impact on cost and schedule, and action items. The risk management process will identify potential risk sources; assess individual risks and impacts on performance, cost, and schedule; evaluate alternative approaches to mitigate high and moderate risks; develop action plans to handle individual risks; and interface risks with other programs and/or projects. Risk management and risk assessment will be consistent with DOE Orders 430.1 and 413.3 and their associated guidance documentation. The RMP will remain valid for the life cycle of the program and/or projects and will be under configuration control with revisions to be conducted as required and approved

  5. Two measures of risk importance and their application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk importance measures are developed to quantify the worths of design features and human actions in both controlling and reducing risk. The quantification of worths can be used to help focus and prioritize efforts in backfitting programs, reliability assurance programs, inspection programs, and general risk management programs. The risk importance measures described are straightforward mathematically and have a natural physical interpretation. As a demonstration of their utility, the measures are applied to the probabilistic risk analyses (PRA) performed in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Reactor Safety Study Methodology Applications Program. The results greatly enhance the information provided by the PRA and show extremely intereting behaviors. Within a plant and across plants, worths vary by orders of magnitude. Systems, components, and human actions that are important in reducing risk are not necessarily those that are important in controlling or assuring risk. The worths are graphically portrayed to more effectively communicate the messages to managers and decisionmakers. The applications indicate that the described importance evaluations should be an intimate part of any PRA

  6. Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Lloyd

    1998-01-01

    This presentation focuses on the identification of risk management, risk management processes such as: quantification and prioritization; mitigation planning; implementation of risk reduction; and tracking process. It develops examples and answers questions about Risk Management.

  7. Feasibility of Portfolio Optimization under Coherent Risk Measures

    CERN Document Server

    Kondor, Imre

    2008-01-01

    It is shown that the axioms for coherent risk measures imply that whenever there is an asset in a portfolio that dominates the others in a given sample (which happens with finite probability even for large samples), then this portfolio cannot be optimized under any coherent measure on that sample, and the risk measure diverges to minus infinity. This instability was first discovered on the special example of Expected Shortfall which is used here both as an illustration and as a prompt for generalization.

  8. Noise sensitivity of portfolio selection under various risk measures

    CERN Document Server

    Kondor, I; Nagy, G; Kondor, Imre; Pafka, Szilard; Nagy, Gabor

    2006-01-01

    We study the sensitivity to estimation error of portfolios optimized under various risk measures, including variance, absolute deviation, expected shortfall and maximal loss. We introduce a measure of portfolio sensitivity and test the various risk measures by considering simulated portfolios of varying sizes N and for different lengths T of the time series. We find that the effect of noise is very strong in all the investigated cases, asymptotically it only depends on the ratio N/T, and diverges at a critical value of N/T, that depends on the risk measure in question. This divergence is the manifestation of a phase transition, analogous to the algorithmic phase transitions recently discovered in a number of hard computational problems. The transition is accompanied by a number of critical phenomena, including the divergent sample to sample fluctuations of portfolio weights. While the optimization under variance and mean absolute deviation is always feasible below the critical value of N/T, expected shortfall...

  9. An Interaction Model for Simulation and Mitigation of Cascading Failures

    CERN Document Server

    Qi, Junjian; Mei, Shengwei

    2014-01-01

    Cascading failures triggered by trivial initial events are encountered in many complex systems. It is actually not any specific reason but the interaction between components of the system that causes cascading failures. Based on this idea interactions between components are quantified and the interaction matrix and interaction network are obtained. By using the quantified interactions, key links and key components that play important roles in the propagation of cascading failures are identified. An interaction model is also proposed to simulate cascading failures by using the interactions and to study the influence of these interactions on the cascading failure risk. Interaction-based mitigation measures are suggested to mitigate the cascading failure risk by eliminating a small number of key links, which can be achieved in real systems by wide area protection such as blocking of some specific protective relays. The proposed interaction quantifying method, cascading failure model, and mitigation measures are ...

  10. REIMR - A Process for Utilizing Liquid Rocket Propulsion-Oriented 'Lessons Learned' to Mitigate Development Risk in Nuclear Thermal Propulsion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper is a summary overview of a study conducted at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA-MSFC) during the initial phases of the Space Launch Initiative (SLI) program to evaluate a large number of technical problems associated with the design, development, test, evaluation and operation of several major liquid propellant rocket engine systems (i.e., SSME, Fastrac, J-2, F-1). One of the primary results of this study was the identification of the 'Fundamental Root Causes' that enabled the technical problems to manifest, and practices that can be implemented to prevent them from recurring in future propulsion system development efforts, such as that which is currently envisioned in the field of nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP). This paper will discus the Fundamental Root Causes, cite some examples of how the technical problems arose from them, and provide a discussion of how they can be mitigated or avoided in the development of an NTP system

  11. Soil erosion and mitigation measures on rented and owned fields in Uruguay: the impact of transgenic soya and foreign investors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caon, Lucrezia; Kessler, Aad; Keesstra, Saskia; Cruze, Rick

    2014-05-01

    Governments, companies and individuals with financial capital to invest, are worldwide buying or renting land in developing or third world countries. Uruguay is a developing country whose economy is mainly based on agriculture. Since 2000 many foreigners started to invest in the Uruguayan agricultural sector and to practice intensive large-scale agriculture. The significant presence of foreigners in the country is proven by the fact that almost 360 000 ha out of the 500 000 ha forming the study area were managed by foreigners in 2012. Nowadays farmers have abandoned the traditional crop rotation plan that included pasture to produce grain for export, and transgenic soya (soya RR) became the main crop planted by both foreigners and locals. Besides the high soil erosion rates related to having soya as main crop, planting soya implies the use of glyphosate, a broad-spectrum systemic herbicide leading to important environmental impacts. It is commonly said that foreigners investing in poor countries are exploiting the local natural resources aiming to get the highest possible profit from them. Is this a valid assumption in Uruguay? The purpose of this study was to compare the land management style of foreign and local farmers and to relate it to the soil erosion occurring in the study area. The land tenure (rented or owned fields) and the type of farmer interviewed ("individual farmer" equivalent to L.L.C. or "anonymous society" equivalent to P.L.C.) were taken into consideration during the analysis. Based on what stated by the farmers interviewed, the soil erosion simulations considered the seven most popular crop rotation plans on rented and owned fields, three ideals crop rotation plans, the application of no mitigation measures, and the construction of terraces and conservation buffers. Depending on the crop rotation plan, soils characterized by slope gradients higher than 2 resulted in soil erosion rates higher than the 7 ton/ha/year allowed by law. The highest soil erosion rates corresponded to crop rotation plans having high percentage of soybeans and low percentages of sorghum and/or maize. In addition, the soil erosion rate was even higher when only one crop, especially soybeans, was planted during an agricultural year. Although there were not significant differences in the land management style between foreign and local farmers, the land management style significantly differed between L.L.C. and P.L.C., and between owned and rented fields. Compared to L.L.C., P.L.C. applied more soil erosion mitigation measures on both rented and owned fields and invested in research. Owned fields resulted to be better managed than rented fields in which soil erosion mitigation measures were taken only in presence of an agreement with the landlord. Indeed, although the construction of terraces having a distance of 30-50 m significantly reduced the soil erosion rate, those were mainly built on owned fields.

  12. Evaluation of environmental impacts caused by hydroelectric power plants in native forest areas and mitigation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The following work has the intention of demonstrating the importance of native forest to the human life, not only through its inherent qualities as something to preserve, but also as a source of great resources, and in particular hydroelectric resource that, by today's necessities are bounded to be explored. The negative effects caused by the implementation of a hydroelectric plant are shown together with the necessity of adoption of measures that would soften the environment impact of it. For the adoption of those measures, many forest studies were proposed in the search for its complete characterization. Each of these studies are duly defined and presented in their general and specific goals. The most adequate methodology is finally recommended. (author). 14 refs

  13. Flood and rockslide mitigative measures for the concrete sections of the Daisy Lake Dam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Studies conducted under British Columbia Hydro's dam safety program during the early 1980s indicated that dam sections of the Daisy Lake Dam would be overtopped by the probable maximum flood (PMF) and by a postulated slide generated wave (SGW). It was considered that the overtopping by either of the events could cause several sections of the concrete dam to fall, thereby resulting in uncontrolled release of the reservoir. The criteria used for determining foundation strength parameters, static and SGW induced water pressures, effective uplift and the appropriate factors of safety are discussed. The results of the analyses for the original dam sections and the design and implementation of the selected remedial measures are also described. These measures included lowering the Wing Dam and Saddle Dam by about 2 m to increase the spillway capacity and the installation of 43 post-tensioned anchors in the various sections of the main concrete and Wing dams. 9 refs., 8 figs., 3 tabs

  14. Conditional risk measure modeling for Latvian insurance companies

    OpenAIRE

    Irina Voronova; Gaida Pettere; Jekaterina Kuzmina

    2009-01-01

    Due to the current economical situation on the Latvian market insurance companies are forced to consider other possibilities of income generation. One of such opportunities could be seen in cash flows from investment operations, while managing stocks' portfolios. The process of portfolio management is tightly connected with adequate risk management. In the current paper we have used copula approach for estimating portfolio’s conditional risk measures and though to contribute to the discussi...

  15. Key Escrow Attack Risk and Preventive Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiang Fan

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Cryptographic technology is always a highly sensitive dual-use technology. All nations have to face a dilemma in terms of password usage: on the one hand, to fully guarantee the safety and confidentiality of personal communication, as well as personal privacy and communication freedom required by law; on the other hand, to make sure law-enforcing departments and security organs crack down and prevent crime. It might be a great help for crime and terrorist organizations that the wide application of cryptography is made public. Many people believe that plain text communicated through the public network is accessible to an appropriate government agency if law permits. Therefore, it has become a continuous hot issue of cryptographic technology that how to design a cryptographic system through which legal persons are able to protect the safety of their information, yet being monitored by government in the range permitted by law. In this study, an in-depth study is carried out on the controversial key escrow technology, analyzing its composition and algorithm and pointing out possible attacks and preventive measures.

  16. Space collision threat mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zatezalo, Aleksandar; Stipanovi?, Dušan; Mehra, Raman K.; Pham, Khanh

    2014-06-01

    Mitigation of possible collision threats to current and future operations in space environments is an important an challenging task considering high nonlinearity of orbital dynamics and discrete measurement updates. Such discrete observations are relatively scarce with respect to space dynamics including possible unintentional or intentional rocket propulsion based maneuvers even in scenarios when measurement collections are focused to a one single target of interest. In our paper, this problem is addressed in terms of multihypothesis and multimodel estimation in conjunction with multi-agent multigoal game theoretic guaranteed evasion strategies. Collision threat estimation is formulated using conditional probabilities of time dependent hypotheses and spacecraft controls which are computed using Liapunov-like approach. Based on this formulation, time dependent functional forms of multi-objective utility functions are derived given threat collision risk levels. For demonstrating developed concepts, numerical methods are developed using nonlinear filtering methodology for updating hypothesis sets and corresponding conditional probabilities. Space platform associated sensor resources are managed using previously developed and demonstrated information-theoretic objective functions and optimization methods. Consequently, estimation and numerical methods are evaluated and demonstrated on a realistic Low Earth Orbit collision encounter.

  17. Measuring risk, managing values: health technology and subjectivity in Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Julie Høgsgaard; Whyte, Susan Reynolds

    2014-12-01

    Based on fieldwork among Danes with a diagnosed risk of type 2 diabetes or cardiovascular disease, this paper investigates how the technological possibilities of diagnosing and monitoring invisible risks shape understandings of health and form subjectivity. It focuses on the experiences of being diagnosed with a risk condition in the form of high blood pressure or elevated blood glucose and the ensuing use of measuring devices. It argues that measurements of these conditions can be seen as 'formative processes' that produce and maintain a view of health as something that can best be known through the use of medical technology. The numerical values such measurements yield are seen as true indicators of health, and doing something about risk conditions is felt to be a personal imperative. The formative processes illustrated in this paper are motivational and thought provoking. The informants do not experience new symptoms after being diagnosed; rather they reflect upon their health in a new way and numbers become associated with personal responsibility and morality. However, because numbers influence subjective experiences, they can come to take up too much space in everyday life. Therefore, people have reservations about how often they should measure their values at home. The formative processes of being diagnosed with a risk condition are thus about subjectivity both in the sense of being subject to the demands of living with an illness and of being a subject who acts to keep life from being colonized by concerns about health. PMID:24761746

  18. Fuel consumption and life cycle GHG emissions by China’s on-road trucks: Future trends through 2050 and evaluation of mitigation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We established a bottom-up model to deliver the future trends of fuel consumption and life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by China's on-road trucks. The mitigation measures of mileage utilization rate (MUR) improvement, fuel consumption rate (FCR) improvement, and penetration of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fueled trucks were evaluated. With no mitigation measures implemented, in the year 2050, the total fuel consumption and life cycle GHG emissions by China's on-road trucks were projected to reach 498 million toe and 2125 million tons, respectively, approximately 5.2 times the level in 2010. If the MUR of trucks in China is increased from the current status as those of the developed countries, a 13% reduction of total fuel consumption can be achieved after 2020. If the FCR of trucks is reduced by 10% in 2011, 2016, 2021, and 2026, a 30% reduction of total fuel consumption can be achieved after 2030. Moreover, if the share of LNG fueled trucks in all newly registered semi-trailer towing trucks and heavy-duty trucks is increased to 20% in 2030, an estimate of 7.9% and 10.9% of the total diesel consumption by trucks will be replaced by LNG in 2030 and 2050, respectively. - Highlights: ? We establish a bottom–up model to deliver the fuel consumption and GHG emissions by China's trucks. ? Without mitigation measures, the truck fuel consumption in 2050 will be 5.2 times the level in 2010. ? Fuel conservation and GHG reduction effects of three mitigation measureffects of three mitigation measures were evaluated.

  19. Development of Technology Readiness Level (TRL) Metrics and Risk Measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Anderson, K. K.; Sivaramakrishnan, Chandrika; Lansing, Carina

    2012-10-01

    This is an internal project milestone report to document the CCSI Element 7 team's progress on developing Technology Readiness Level (TRL) metrics and risk measures. In this report, we provide a brief overview of the current technology readiness assessment research, document the development of technology readiness levels (TRLs) specific to carbon capture technologies, describe the risk measures and uncertainty quantification approaches used in our research, and conclude by discussing the next steps that the CCSI Task 7 team aims to accomplish.

  20. Comprehensive assessments of measures mitigating heat island phenomena in urban areas; Heat shinku wo riyoshita daikibo reibo system no kaihatsu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mizuno, T.; Yamamoto, S.; Yoshikado, H.; Kondo, H.; Kaneho, N.; Saegusa, N.; Inaba, A. [National Institute for Resources and Environment, Tsukuba (Japan); Inoue, M. [New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization, Tokyo, (Japan)

    1997-02-01

    This paper describes the assessment method of measures mitigating heat island phenomena in urban areas. The heat island phenomena were classified into meso-scale with 100 km-scale, block-scale with several km-scale, and building-scale with 100 m-scale. Urban thermal environment simulation model was developed in response to each scale. For the development, regional data using aircraft and artificial satellite observations, surface observation and thermal environment observation at Shinjuku new central city of Tokyo, and artificial waste heat actual survey data in the southern Kanto district were utilized. Results of the urban thermal environment simulation were introduced as an application of this model. Temperature distributions of the heat island in the Kanto district were simulated with considering urban conditions near Tokyo and without considering it. Daily changes of wall surfaces of high buildings and road surface were calculated. Increase in the air temperature in the back stream of building roofs with increased temperature was determined. 4 figs.

  1. Preliminary data on a new opioid risk assessment measure: the Brief Risk Interview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Ted; Moore, Todd

    2013-01-01

    Risk assessment and stratification have become a central issue in prescribing opioids to patients with chronic pain. Research to date on various risk screening measures has shown that a clinical interview by an experienced clinician offers superior predictive ability in identifying patients who are more likely to engage in future medication aberrant behavior. The current study represents a pilot study of an interview rating scale that is designed to replicate this clinical assessment. This study compares the predictions of medication aberrant behavior made by the Opioid Risk Tool, the Screener and Opioid Assessment for Patients with Pain-Revised, and the new interview rating scale, the Brief Risk Interview (BRI). A sample of 196 patients was assessed by each of the three risk measures and then follow-up data were gathered at 6 months post interview to determine which patients had engaged in medication aberrant behavior and had been discharged from the practice. The BRI shows superior predictive ability in identifying patients who later engage in medication aberrant behavior. Although more study in other settings is needed, these preliminary data suggest that the Brief Risk Interview could be a useful tool for any pain clinician in assessing risk through the use of information gathered in a brief interview. PMID:23709300

  2. Wood logging and surface runoff generation under central European conditions (mechanisms, mitigation measures)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orfanus, T.

    2012-04-01

    The effect of logging on hydrological processes has become one of the most discussed environmental problems in Slovakia since November 2004 when more than 12000 ha (more than 3 millions of trees) of the spruce forest in High Tatra Mt. were completely cut down by bora wind. The field measurements and mathematical simulations revealed that good-state forest vegetation can intercept 3-times more precipitation water than grass or herbs during the vegetation season (about. 40% of seasonal precipitation) in wind affected area. The immediate effect of forest vegetation during a single storm event however is very small and only small positive effect on floods can be expected when compared to other types of vegetation (grass, shrubs, herbs). The effects of wood logging in mountainous areas on water balance are similar to those of natural disasters (clear-cuts) or they can be further modified by building of forest roads, logging roads and other compacted surfaces. The irrigation experiments showed that majority (81%) of 100 mm artificial rain that fell on the logging road's surface during 3 hours did not infiltrate but flew downward the slope of the road. Moreover, logging roads accelerate and concentrate the surface runoff since they increase the drainage density of the basin (draining of upward slopes). Mathematical simulations on HYDRUS-2D model theoretically approved more than 50% contribution of logging roads to 400-year flood discharge in Píla village in June 7, 2011. Studies from the western part of USA report up to 30% contribution of forest roads to extreme flood discharges. The irrigation experiments showed that this asset can be reduced to 0% when a recultivation of unused logging roads by the mechanical loosening of their compacted surface is done.

  3. Address to the international workshop on greenhouse gas mitigation, technologies and measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kant, A.

    1996-12-31

    The Netherlands has a long history in combatting natural forces for it`s mere survival and even creation. Around half of the country was not Yet existent around 2000 years ago: it was still below sea level that time. Building dikes and the discovery of eolic energy applied in windmills, allowing to pump water from one side of the dike to the other, are technologies that gradually shaped the country into its current form, a process that continues to materialize till the present day. Water has not always been an enemy of the country. In the Hundred Year War with Spain, during which the country was occupied territory for most of the time, the water was used to drive the Spanish armies from the country. As large parts are well below sea level breaking the dikes resulted in flooding the country which made the armoury of the Spanish army useless. In this way they had to give up the siege of several major Dutch cities that time. These events marked the gradual liberation of the Dutch territory. Consequently, in the discussion on adaption and prevention of the greenhouse effect the Netherlands has a clear stand. The greenhouse effect will occur anyway, even if countries deploy all possible counter measures at once. So their aim is to prevent the occurrence of the greenhouse effect to the highest extent possible, and to protect the most vulnerable areas meanwhile, especially the coastal zones. In order to reach these goals the Dutch government has established a Joint Implementation Experimental Programme in accordance with the provisions made by the Conference of Parties in Berlin (1995).

  4. US Food and Drug Administration's Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy for extended-release and long-acting opioids: pros and cons, and a European perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercadante, Sebastiano; Craig, David; Giarratano, Antonello

    2012-12-24

    Prescriptions for opioid analgesics to manage moderate-to-severe chronic non-cancer pain have increased markedly over the last decade. An unintentional consequence of greater prescription opioid utilization has been the parallel increase in misuse, abuse and overdose, which are serious risks associated with all opioid analgesics. In response to disturbing rises in prescription opioid abuse, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has proposed the implementation of aggressive Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS). While REMS could dramatically change the development, release, marketing and prescription of extended-release opioids, questions remain on how these programmes may influence prescribing practices, patient safety and ultimately patient access to these agents. The extent of the availability and misuse of prescription opioids in Europe is difficult to assess from the data currently available, due in large part to the considerable differences in prescribing patterns and regulations between countries. Balancing the availability of prescription opioids for those patients who have pain, while discouraging illicit use, is a complex challenge and requires effective efforts on many levels, particularly in Europe where policies are quite different between countries. PMID:23116252

  5. Proceedings of the Canadian Institute's 4. annual oil sands supply and infrastructure conference : maximizing opportunity and mitigating risks in a rapidly growing market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This conference addressed the challenges facing oil sands development, with particular reference to supply and infrastructure issues. Updates on oil sands markets and opportunities were presented along with strategies for mitigating risks in a rapidly growing market. The best practices for supplying a demanding market through supply shortages and high prices were identified along with policies that should be implemented to help overcome labour shortages. Some presentations expressed how commodities pricing and trends can impact business. Others showed how markets in China and the United States are prepared for oilsands products. The views of other international companies on oil sands was also discussed along with proposed plans to eliminate the infrastructure congestion and risks caused by expanding oil sands development. The challenges and benefits of investing in Alberta's oil sands were reviewed along with strategies to enhance upgrading and refining capacity in the province. Economic drivers and the creation of new markets were examined, and various export opportunities were reviewed along with industry management challenges concerning human resources, labour supply, training and education. The conference featured 10 presentations, of which 3 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs

  6. Study on the possibility of measurement of individual risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In industry, because of retirement of postwar baby-boom generation and decreasing labor accident by improvement in facilities, diminished worker's risk perception is concerned about. Although hazard prediction activity (KY: Kiken-Yochi) is carried out for improvement of workers' risk perception in sites, it is get into a rut not to estimate the effects of the activity. Then the purpose of this study is to examine the possibility of measuring and estimating individual inherent risk perception not depending on the experiences and knowledge, and to confirm the effects of the experiences and knowledge on one's risk perception. Eleven subjects were requested to detect the hazards and to estimate the results and the extents of damage in the three films (1: working at an office (all subjects had the experience), 2: feeding at the GS (gas station) (half of them had the experience), 3: overhauling a valve (no one had the experience)) that were included in some hazards. The rate of hazards detection and the accuracies of 5 categories, that were hazards, results, damage of human, damage of objects or facilities and coping, were calculated. The experience of feeding had effects on the rate of hazards detection and some of the accuracies at the film of feeding at the GS. Also, all of indices were significantly lower at the firm of overhauling a valve than the firm of working at an office. These results showed that the experiences and knowledge were affected on one's risk perceptioedge were affected on one's risk perception. Meanwhile, the similarity of the tendency to the rate of hazards detection and the accuracies between 2 firms except for the firm of feeding was found by means of the ordinal correlation. The result showed that it will be able to measure the individual inherent risk perception from the number of hazards detection and the depth of the context. The future issues are discussed for developing the method to evaluate the risk perception. (author)

  7. High Spatial Resolution Thermal Remote Sensing of the Urban Heat Island Effect: Assessment of Risks to Human Health and Development of Mitigation Strategies for Sustainable Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Rickman, Douglas L.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Laymon, Charles A.; Crosson, William; Howell, Burgess F.; Gillani, Noor V.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and in areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80% of the world's population will live in cities. One of the more egregious side effects of urbanization is the deterioration in air quality as a result of increased vehicular traffic, industrialization and related activities. In the United States alone, under the more stringent air quality guidelines established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1997, nearly 300 counties in 34 states will not meet the new air quality standards for ground level ozone. The mitigation of one the physical/environmental characteristics of urbanization known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect, is now being looked at more closely as a possible way to bring down ground level ozone levels in cities and assist states in improving air quality. The UHI results from the replacement of "natural" land covers (e.g., trees, grass) with urban land surface types, such as pavement and buildings. Heat stored in these surfaces is released into the air and results in a "dome" of elevated air temperatures that presides over cities. The effect of this dome of elevated air temperatures is known as the UHI, which is most prevalent about 2-3 hours after sunset on days with intense solar radiation and calm winds. Given the local and regional impacts of the UHI, there are significant potential affects on human health, particularly as related to heat stress and ozone on body temperature regulation and on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. In this study we are using airborne and satellite remote sensing data to analyze how differences in the urban landscape influence or drive the development of the UHI over four U.S. cities. Additionally, we are assessing what the potential impact is on risks to human health, and developing mitigation strategies to make urban areas more environmentally sustainable.

  8. Remote Sensing of the Urban Heat Island Effect: Assessment of Risks to Human Health and Development of Mitigation Strategies for Sustainable Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Rickman, Douglas L.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Laymon, Charles A.; Crosson, William; Howell, Burgess F.; Gillani, Noor V.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and in areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80% of the world's population will live in cities. One of the more egregious side effects of urbanization is the deterioration in air quality as a result of increased vehicular traffic, industrialization and related activities. In the United States alone, under the more stringent air quality guidelines established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1997, nearly 300 counties in 34 states will not meet the new air quality standards for ground level ozone. The mitigation of one the physical/environmental characteristics of urbanization known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect, is now being looked at more closely as a possible way to bring down ground level ozone levels in cities and assist states in improving air quality. The UHI results from the replacement of "natural" land covers (e.g., trees, grass) with urban land surface types, such as pavement and buildings. Heat stored in these surfaces is released into the air and results in a "dome" of elevated air temperatures that presides over cities. The effect of this dome of elevated air temperatures is known as the UHI, which is most prevalent about 2-3 hours after sunset on days with intense solar radiation and calm winds. Given the local and regional impacts of the UHI, there are significant potential affects on human health, particularly as related to heat stress and ozone on body temperature regulation and on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. In this study we are using airborne and satellite remote sensing data to analyze how differences in the urban landscape influence or drive the development of the UHI over four U.S. cities. Additionally, we are assessing what the potential impact is on risks to human health, and developing mitigation strategies to make urban areas more environmentally sustainable.

  9. Application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to mitigate operating and maintenance cost increases for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Operating nuclear power generation facilities face increased pressure from state utility commissions to improve the cost effectiveness of operations and maintenance programs. Some costs are not allowed for inclusion in the current rate base and represent an operating loss to the utility. State regulators seem more willing to use operating and maintenance cost comparisons of competing technologies, such as existing fossil and cogeneration facilities. In contrast to these pressures are the requirements applied by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to improve the ''quality'' of operations. The NRC, as a regulator, sometimes uses conflicting parameters to judge the effectiveness of operations, and often issues regulations that significantly impact operating costs. As Individual Plant Examinations (IPEs) are completed and submitted to the NRC for review, numerous additional opportunities exist for application of PRA methodology and plant specific results to address the risk impact of recent regulations. Quadrex Corporation is currently performing research for the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) to investigate the application of risk analysis to improve the cost effectiveness of operations and maintenance programs for nuclear plants. The project is being performed with the cooperation of two participating utilities. The focus of the investigation is the use of the plant specific risk analysis to improve the cost effectiveness of efforts associated with utility respos of efforts associated with utility response to NRC Generic Letter 89-10; a program that can significantly increase the requirements for motor-operated valve testing and surveillance programs

  10. Measuring the risk of an Iranian banking system using Value at Risk (VaR Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sudabeh Morshedian Rafiee

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Measuring risk of financial institutes and banks plays an important role on managing them. Recent financial turmoil in United States banking system has motivated banking industry to monitor risk factors more closely. In this paper, we present an empirical study to measure the risk of some private banks in Iran called Bank Mellat using Value at Risk (VaR method. The proposed study collects the necessary information for the fiscal year of 2010 and analyses them using regression analysis. The study divides the financial data into two groups where the financial data of the first half of year is considered in the first group and the remaining information for the second half of year 2010 is considered in the second group. The implementation of VaR method indicates that financial risks increase during the time horizon. The study also uses linear regression method where independent variable is time, dependent variable is the financial risk, and the results confirm what we have found in the previous part of the survey.

  11. Hydrogen hazard and mitigation analysis in PWR containment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Reactor severe accident due to hydrogen risk. • Hydrogen explosion in PWR containment. • Mitigation of hydrogen risk with the implantation of recombiners. • Regulatory requirement considerations. - Abstract: This paper describes the analytical results for the estimation of hydrogen concentration in the containment atmosphere based on zirconium oxidation reaction following a severe accident. The analysis provides useful information about the potential challenge of local hydrogen accumulation in the containment, which may be used to reduce the hydrogen detonation risk and to design the capacity and arrangements of mitigation measures. The containment analysis has been performed using computer code COGAP which uses the scenario of loss of coolant accident. The behavior of pressure and hydrogen concentrations in containment as a function of time under the severe accident condition is presented in graphical form. The mitigation measures (recombiners) are essential to maintain containment atmosphere in the safe stable conditions. A hydrogen control system is to mitigate the hydrogen risk by comparing results from a reference accident sequence with and without recombiners. This comparison show that combustible gas occur in few local areas in the containment for a limited time span and hydrogen concentration is reduced significantly with the use of recombiners

  12. MEASURING RISK PROFILE WITH A MULTIDIMENSIONAL RASCH ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeria CAVIEZEL

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we propose an evaluation of investors’ risk profiles such as to meet the minimal requirements that Italian financial institutions must satisfy by law (d. lgs. 164, 2007. Thus we investigate all aspects specific to so-called risk profiles: an investor’s knowledge and his financial experience (concerning financial instruments and their use; financial objectives, a personal predisposition to risk /earn and the temporal horizon. The methodology used in financial literature with regard to risk profiles is essentially based on simplistic statistical analyses that often fail to consider possible psychological aspects. In order to account for investor preferences and psychological attitudes, we suggest to use an item response theory model. We first assume a unidimensional model, belonging to the family of Rasch models and then, as an alternative approach, a Generalized Multidimensional Rasch model. In particular, the objective is to assess the value of a questionnaire whose items describe different characteristics of the main latent variable risk profile. Under the assumption of a multidimensional measurement model, given the multivariate position of each investor with respect to identified latent traits we can represent his position with respect to possible investments proposed by a bank and we can identify different situations that respect the investor’s risk profile and best characterize typical investor choices.

  13. Environmental benefits and risks of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI) for in situ remediation: Risk mitigation or trade-off?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grieger, Khara D.; Fjordbøge, Annika; Hartmann, Nanna B.; Eriksson, Eva; Bjerg, Poul L.; Baun, Anders

    2010-11-01

    The use of nanoscaled zero-valent iron particles (nZVI) to remediate contaminated soil and groundwater has received increasing amounts of attention within the last decade, primarily due to its potential for broader application, higher reactivity, and cost-effectiveness compared to conventional zero-valent iron applications and other in situ methods. However, the potential environmental risks of nZVI in in situ field scale applications are largely unknown at the present and traditional environmental risk assessment approaches are not yet able to be completed. Therefore, it may not yet be fully clear how to consider the environmental benefits and risks of nZVI for in situ applications. This analysis therefore addresses the challenges of comprehensively considering and weighing the expected environmental benefits and potential risks of this emerging environmentally-beneficial nanotechnology, particularly relevant for environmental engineers, scientists, and decision makers. We find that most of the benefits of using nZVI are based on near-term considerations, and large data gaps currently exist within almost all aspects of environmental exposure and effect assessments. We also find that while a wide range of decision support tools and frameworks alternative to risk assessment are currently available, a thorough evaluation of these should be undertaken in the near future to assess their full relevancy for nZVI at specific sites. Due to the absence of data in environmental risk evaluations, we apply a 'best' and 'worst' case scenario evaluation as a first step to qualitatively evaluate the current state-of-knowledge regarding the potential environmental risks of nZVI. The result of this preliminary qualitative evaluation indicates that at present, there are no significant grounds on which to form the basis that nZVI currently poses a significant, apparent risk to the environment, although the majority of the most serious criteria (i.e. potential for persistency, bioaccumulation, toxicity) are generally unknown. We recommend that in cases where nZVI may be chosen as the 'best' treatment option, short and long-term environmental monitoring is actively employed at these sites. We furthermore recommend the continued development of responsible nZVI innovation and better facilitated information exchange between nZVI developers, nano-risk researchers, remediation industry, and decision makers.

  14. VAR Methodology Used for Exchange Risk Measurement and Prevention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florentina Balu

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available In this article we discuss one of the modern risk measuring techniques Value-at-Risk (VaR. Currently central banks in major money centers, under the auspices of the BIS Basle Committee, adopt the VaR system to evaluate the market risk of their supervised banks. Banks regulators ask all commercial banks to report VaRs with their internal models. Value at risk (VaR is a powerful tool for assessing market risk, but it also imposes a challenge. Its power is its generality. Unlike market risk metrics such as the Greeks, duration and convexity, or beta, which are applicable to only certain asset categories or certain sources of market risk, VaR is general. It is based on the probability distribution for a portfolio’s market value. Value at Risk (VAR calculates the maximum loss expected (or worst case scenario on an investment, over a given time period and given a specified degree of confidence. There are three methods by which VaR can be calculated: the historical simulation, the variance-covariance method and the Monte Carlo simulation. The variance-covariance method is easiest because you need to estimate only two factors: average return and standard deviation. However, it assumes returns are well-behaved according to the symmetrical normal curve and that historical patterns will repeat into the future. The historical simulation improves on the accuracy of the VAR calculation, but requires more computational data; it also assumes that “past is prologue”. The Monte Carlo simulation is complex, but has the advantage of allowing users to tailor ideas about future patterns that depart from historical patterns.

  15. Indoor radon mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The action limit for indoor radon concentration in Finnish dwellings is 400 Bq/m3 which is exceeded in 50.000 dwellings. In these dwellings indoor radon mitigation is needed. The most important reason for high concentration is the soil air with high radon concentrations that flows into living spaces through openings and gaps in the building foundation. Slab on-ground is the most prevalent type of foundation in Finnish single family houses. Without preventive measures, this type of foundation promotes the flow of radon-bearing soil air into living spaces. In the second popular foundation type, hill-side houses, the flow of soil air through the walls backing soil still increases radon leakages. The key aim of indoor radon mitigation is to prevent or decrease the harmful flows of radon-bearing soil air into dwellings. This guide gives the basic information on Finnish regulations on indoor radon, leakage routes, effect of air exchange and underpressure as well as pre-mitigation studies of houses. The results on the efficiency of various mitigation methods are based on a questionnaire study in 400 Finnish dwellings and on-site studies in numerous houses. In the case of sub-slab-suction the Finnish guide published by the Ministry of Environment has also been utilized. Best mitigation efficiency has been achieved using sub-slab-suction and radon well. Typical reduction factors for both methods are 70-90%, and the best results are above 95%. Sub-slab-suction can belts are above 95%. Sub-slab-suction can be implemented through both floor slab and foundation wall. An exhaust fan coupled to suction pit and exhaust piping creates underpressure and ventilation beneath the slab. In case of a radon well an exhaust fan sucks air from the soil and ventilates the soil air volume through a well construction placed outside the house. The depth of a radon well is 3-5 metres. A single radon well can reduce radon concentration in many dwellings at the distance up to 20-30 metres. Mitigation work based on ventilation aims at increasing the air exchange or reduction of the underpressure or both. Typical reduction factors are 10-40%. The reduction factors exceed 50% only in rare cases when the initial air exchange has been low or the underpressure level has been high. Sealing of entry routes aims at reduction of leakage flow of radon-bearing soil air into living spaces. Typical reduction factors with this method are 10-50%. Both ventilation-based measures and sealing work can also be used for improvement of the efficiency of sub-slab-suction or radon well. In radon mitigation of apartments in the bottom floor with floor slab in ground contact, high underpressure levels increase indoor radon concentration and, in addition reduce the efficiency of sub-slab-suction or radon well. In this case the mitigation should be enhanced through installation of fresh air vents. Similarly, sealing may be needed to improve the efficiency. The efficiency of mitigation using only sealing measures has exceeded 50% only in rare cases. The guide gives also a brief overview on radon mitigation at workplaces and in big buildings and on radon prevention in new buildings. The reference limit for design and construction of new buildings is 200 Bq/m3. The number of houses exceeding this limit is 200.000 in Finland. Preventive measures should be taken in all buildings in the whole country in order to avoid new dwellings that need mitigation. This guide presents many practical examples on mitigation work, and it is intended for the use of both construction companies and do-it-yourself mitigators. (orig.)

  16. Short and long term efficiencies of debris risk reduction measures: Application to a European LEO mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, T.; Kervarc, R.; Bertrand, S.; Carle, P.; Donath, T.; Destefanis, R.; Grassi, L.; Tiboldo, F.; Schäfer, F.; Kempf, S.; Gelhaus, J.

    2015-01-01

    Recent numerical studies indicate that the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment has reached a point such that even if no further space launches were conducted, the Earth satellite population would remain relatively constant for only the next 50 years or so. Beyond that, the debris population would begin to increase noticeably, due to the production of collisional debris (Liou and Johnson, 2008). Measures to be enforced play thus a major role to preserve an acceptable space mission risk and ensure sustainable space activities. The identification of such measures and the quantification of their efficiency over time for LEO missions is of prime concern in the decision-making process, as it has been investigated for the last few decades by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). This paper addresses the final results of a generic methodology and the characteristics of a tool developed to assess the efficiency of the risk reduction measures identified for the Sentinel-1 (S1) mission. This work is performed as part of the 34-month P2-ROTECT project (Prediction, Protection & Reduction of OrbiTal Exposure to Collision Threats), funded by the European Union within the Seventh Framework Programme. Three ways of risk reduction have been investigated, both in short and long-term, namely: better satellite protection, better conjunction prediction, and cleaner environment. According to our assumptions, the S1 mission vulnerability evaluations in the long term (from 2093 to 2100) show that full compliance to the mitigation measures leads to a situation twice safer than that induced by an active debris removal of 5 objects per year in a MASTER2009 Business-As-Usual context. Because these measures have visible risk reduction effects in the long term, complementary measures with short response time are also studied. In the short term (from 2013 to 2020), a better prediction of the conjunctions is more efficient than protecting the satellite S1 itself. By combining a better prediction with an enhanced satellite protection the S1 is estimated to extend its extra mission lifetime by 4% with respect to its nominal lifetime (7.25 years).

  17. Improving Supply Chain Risk Management by Introducing Performance Measurement Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Ryding, Anna; Sahlin, Jonatan

    2013-01-01

    Supply chain risk management (SCRM) is a topic that gains more and more interest from both the academic and practitioner’s perspective. The reason for this is the increased complexity in the global supply chain (SC) networks and many managers do not realize the risks they build in their SC by the continuous search to cut cost and decrease tied up capital. One problem with SCRM is that it is hard to measure the performance of it and if it is really beneficial to work with it. The objective f...

  18. Approving the ISDWIR Method of Risk Measurement in Making Risk Management Decision || Aprobación del método de medición del riesgo SIIPDR en el manejo de asunción de riesgos

    OpenAIRE

    Strelnik, Mikhail

    2014-01-01

    This paper is devoted to risk management and risk measurement methods. The author considers methods of risk measurement and proposes the Integral Sum of Diff erential Weighted Indexes of Risks (or ISDWIR) method of risk measurement. The method is based on dynamic enterprise risk matrices. The matrix describes the changes of corporate risk values over the time. The method assists to choose risk management decision having good e ffects on corporate risk values. The ISDWIR method is also c...

  19. Minimising Mortality in Endangered Raptors Due to Power Lines: The Importance of Spatial Aggregation to Optimize the Application of Mitigation Measures

    OpenAIRE

    Guil, Francisco; Ferna?ndez-olalla, Mariana; Moreno-opo, Rube?n; Mosqueda, Ignacio; Go?mez, Mari?a Elena; Aranda, Antonio; Arredondo, A?ngel; Guzma?n, Jose?; Oria, Javier; Gonza?lez, Luis Mariano; Margalida, Antoni

    2011-01-01

    Electrocution by power lines is one of the main causes of non-natural mortality in birds of prey. In an area in central Spain, we surveyed 6304 pylons from 333 power lines to determine electrocution rates, environmental and design factors that may influence electrocution and the efficacy of mitigation measures used to minimise electrocution cases. A total of 952 electrocuted raptors, representing 14 different species, were observed. Electrocuted raptors were concentrated in certain areas and ...

  20. The German contribution to the global forest policy. Analysis and evaluation of the engagement for biodiversity conservation and mitigation measures climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The booklet on the German contribution to the global forest policy covers with analysis and evaluation of the engagement for biodiversity conservation and mitigation measures climatic change. The analysis is based on expert interviews; the theoretical background is the conception on society by Niklas Lehmann. The evaluation includes the issues of allocation of public goods, the improvement of public participation, and improvement of financing resources.

  1. Measuring risk of crude oil at extreme quantiles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša Žikovi?

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of VaR models at measuring risk for WTI oil one-month futures returns. Risk models, ranging from industry standards such as RiskMetrics and historical simulation to conditional extreme value model, are used to calculate commodity market risk at extreme quantiles: 0.95, 0.99, 0.995 and 0.999 for both long and short trading positions. Our results show that out of the tested fat tailed distributions, generalised Pareto distribution provides the best fit to both tails of oil returns although tails differ significantly, with the right tail having a higher tail index, indicative of more extreme events. The main conclusion is that, in the analysed period, only extreme value theory based models provide a reasonable degree of safety while widespread VaR models do not provide adequate risk coverage and their performance is especially weak for short position in oil.

  2. Mitigation Banks and Other Conservation Lands at Risk from Preferential Groundwater Flow and Hydroperiod Alterations by Existing and Proposed Northeast Florida Mines

    OpenAIRE

    Sergio Bernardes; Jiaying He; Bacchus, Sydney T.; Marguerite Madden; Thomas Jordan

    2014-01-01

    When evaluating applications for proposed projects, agencies in the United States (U.S.) must consider mitigation options for the destruction of the aquatic environment such as wetlands, if no practicable alternative to the proposed action exists. Because attempts to create artificial wetlands as replacements for natural wetlands that were destroyed have had little success, particularly in the case of forested wetlands, mitigation options often include mitigation banks and conservation restri...

  3. Case Study of Risk Mitigation Based on Hardware/Software Integration (HSI) Testing for the International Space Station (ISS) Node 2 Module

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, James Mike; Clanton, Stephen Edward

    2004-01-01

    Within the pressurized elements of the International Space Station (ISS), requirements exist to ensure a safe, habitable environment for the crew. In order to provide this environment, thermal control components work in conjunction with software controls to provide heat rejection for subsystem avionics equipment, for the environmental control system and for experiment payloads. It is essential to ISS operations, mission success and crew safety that necessary testing incorporates the extreme conditions to ensure proper performance. This paper provides a general description and methodology applied to thermal related Hardware/Software Integration (HSI) tests for the ISS Node 2 module. A detailed test plan was developed and implemented with two objectives: the first was for risk mitigation of the thermal control algorithms and software qualification, and the second was for data collection which will substantiate thermalhydraulic models of the Internal Active Thermal Control System (IATCS). Analytical models are utilized to determine on-orbit performance for conditions and scenarios where the simulation of actual on-orbit system performance is limited by test configuration constraints. Node 2 IATCS HSI activities were performed at the Alenia Spazio facility in Torino, Italy with participation from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Alenia Spazio, Jacobs Engineering Sverdrup (JE Sverdrup) and Boeing.

  4. Optimisation and Implementation of the R2E Shielding and Relocation Mitigation Measures at the LHC during the LS1

    CERN Document Server

    Perrot, A L; Barberan Marin, M; Brugger, M; Corso, J P; Foraz, K; Jeckel, M; Lazzaroni, M; Lefort, B; Mikulec, B; Muttoni, Y

    2014-01-01

    In the framework of the Radiation to Electronics (R2E) project, important mitigation actions are being implemented in the LHC during the first Long Shutdown (LS1) to reduce the Single Event Error (SEE) occurrence in standard electronics present in much of the equipment installed in the LHC underground areas. Recent simulations have motivated additional actions to be performed in Point 4, in addition to those already scheduled in Points 1, 5, 7 and 8. This paper presents the organisation process carried out during LS1 to optimise the implementation of the R2E mitigation activities. It reports the challenges linked to civil engineering and to safe room relocation in Points 5 and 7. It highlights the reactivity needed to face the new mitigation requirements to be implemented in Point 4 before the end of LS1. It presents the advancement status of the R2E mitigation activities in the different LHC points with the main concerns and impact with the overall LHC LS1 planning.

  5. Nuclear Proliferation Risk Mitigation Approaches and Impacts in the Recycle of Used Nuclear Fuel in the USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    EnergySolutions and its team partners, which include the UK National Nuclear Laboratory (NNL), are one of four industry teams to have received an award from the US Department of Energy to carry out design studies in support of the US Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP). This team has developed a detailed scenario model for a future US nuclear fuel cycle based on a closed used nuclear fuel recycle as an alternative to the current once-though-and-store system. This scenario enables the uranium and plutonium in Light Water Reactor (LWR) used fuel from the current reactor fleet, and from a fleet of replacement LWRs, to be recycled as both Uranium Oxide and Mixed Oxide (MOX) fuel using reprocessing plants that conform to the requirements of GNEP. There is also a provision for 'burning' in thermal reactors certain long-lived transuranics (Np, Am, Cm) formed into targets. The residual fission product waste, without these long-term heat emitters, will be vitrified and consigned to the US National Geologic repository. Later in the scenario a fleet of Advanced Recycle Reactors (ARR), based on sodium cooled fast reactor technology, are introduced to enable full transmutation of all transuranics and thus attain the GNEP sustainability goal. The recycle scenario avoids the need for the Yucca Mountain repository to receive unprocessed used nuclear fuel and is effective at prolonging its lifetime and delaying the need for a second repository. This paper explains the process by itory. This paper explains the process by which EnergySolutions selected the U-Pu and U-Pu-Np MOX products and the technological requirements for the recycle plants and describes materials flow analysis that has been carried for the US nuclear fuel cycle scenario using NNL's ORION scenario modelling program. One of the prime requisites of GNEP is to ensure that the risk of proliferation is minimized and the paper describes NNL's approach to objectively assessing the proliferation risk of the scenario relative to that of a conventional recycle scheme. (authors)

  6. Multi-objective Economic Early Warning and Economic Risk Measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Guihuan; Wang, Jue

    The leading indicators approach is the most prominent and widely used method for economic early warning. However, only the single target’ analysis is focused. In fact, there is more to any economy than a single overarching business target. In this paper, the multi-dimension business climate index approach is introduced to carry out multi-objective economic early warning and measure economic risk. First, the multi-dimension coincident index is constructed directly in the unified framework based on FHLR method. Second, vector space approach and probability analysis of multi-dimension impact point are introduced to provide early warning analysis of multi-objective and measure economic risk. Then, it is applied to research Chinese two-object economic system. The empirical results show that multi-dimension climate index approach may provide a coherent and evolving outlook for multi-objective early warning and build a consistent track record of predictions.

  7. A new importance measure for risk-informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recently, several authors pointed out that the traditional importance measures had limitations. In this study, the problem through an analysis at the parameter level was investigated and a new measure was introduced. The measure was based on small parameter variations and is capable of accounting for the importance of a group of components/parameters. The definition, computational steps, and an application of a new importance measure for risk-informed decision making were presented here. Unlike traditional importance measures, differential importance measure (DIM) deals with changes in the various parameters that determine the unavailability/unreliability of a component, e.g., failure rates, common-cause failure rates, individual human errors. The importance of the component unavailability/unreliability can be calculated from the importance of the parameters. DIM can be calculated for the frequency of initiating events, while risk achievement worth (RAW) is limited to binary events, e.g., component unavailability. The changes in parameters are 'small'. This is more realistic than the drastic assumption in RAW that the component is always down. DIM is additive. This allows the evaluation of the impact of changes, such as the relaxation of quality assurance requirements, which affect groups of parameters, e.g., the failure rates of a group of pumps. (M.N.)

  8. Reportable Creation: value, performance and risk measurement in financial reporting

    OpenAIRE

    Jager, N. G.

    2006-01-01

    Reporting on value or reporting value-relevant information unavoidably implies that estimates of future cash flows should be made. Consequently, uncertainty becomes an important factor in (external) financial reporting. For a long time, uncertainty was dealt with by substituting relevant but uncertain recognition and measurement with less relevant but more certain principles. In the past few years, fair value becomes more and more a leading principle in financial reporting and risk disclosure...

  9. Chain Risk Model for quantifying cost effectiveness of phytosanitary measures

    OpenAIRE

    Benninga, J.; Hennen, W. H. G. J.; Schans, J.

    2010-01-01

    A Chain Risk Model (CRM) was developed for a cost effective assessment of phytosanitary measures. The CRM model can be applied to phytosanitary assessments of all agricultural product chains. In CRM, stages are connected by product volume flows with which pest infections can be spread from one stage to another. The arrangement of these stages can be varied. Experience with CRM was acquired through two cases: Clavibacter in Tomatoes and PSTVd (Potato Spindle Tuber Viroid) in potatoes. Employee...

  10. Random errors in the measurement of 10 cardiovascular risk factors.

    OpenAIRE

    Whitlock, G.; Clark, T.; Vander Hoorn, S.; Rodgers, A.; Jackson, R.; Norton, R.; Macmahon, S.

    2001-01-01

    Random errors in the measurement of 10 commonly investigated cardiovascular risk factors (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, blood cholesterol, blood glucose, pulse rate, body mass index (BMI), cigarette consumption, passive smoking, alcohol intake and physical exercise) were assessed in a general population cohort (n = 2517) and a workforce cohort (n = 8008). Random errors were estimated from regression dilution ratios (lower ratios imply greater random error, and a ratio of one implies ...

  11. Measuring and mitigating inhibition during quantitative real time PCR analysis of viral nucleic acid extracts from large-volume environmental water samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, K E; Schwab, K J; Spencer, S K; Borchardt, M A

    2012-09-01

    Naturally-occurring inhibitory compounds are a major concern during qPCR and RT-qPCR analysis of environmental samples, particularly large volume water samples. Here, a standardized method for measuring and mitigating sample inhibition in environmental water concentrates is described. Specifically, the method 1) employs a commercially available standard RNA control; 2) defines inhibition by the change in the quantification cycle (C(q)) of the standard RNA control when added to the sample concentrate; and 3) calculates a dilution factor using a mathematical formula applied to the change in C(q) to indicate the specific volume of nuclease-free water necessary to dilute the effect of inhibitors. The standardized inhibition method was applied to 3,193 large-volume water (surface, groundwater, drinking water, agricultural runoff, sewage) concentrates of which 1,074 (34%) were inhibited. Inhibition level was not related to sample volume. Samples collected from the same locations over a one to two year period had widely variable inhibition levels. The proportion of samples that could have been reported as false negatives if inhibition had not been mitigated was between 0.3% and 71%, depending on water source. These findings emphasize the importance of measuring and mitigating inhibition when reporting qPCR results for viral pathogens in environmental waters to minimize the likelihood of reporting false negatives and under-quantifying virus concentration. PMID:22673345

  12. The Zebrafish- Danio rerio – Is a Useful Model for Measuring the Effects of Small-molecule Mitigators of Late Effects of Ionizing Irradiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPPERLY, MICHAEL W.; BAHARY, NATHAN; QUADER, MUBINA; DEWALD, VALERIE; GREENBERGER, JOEL S.

    2013-01-01

    Background/Aim Use of zebrafish models may decrease the cost of screening new irradiation protectors and mitigators. Materials and Methods Zebrafish (Danio rerio) models were tested for screening water-soluble radiation protectors and mitigators. Irradiation of embryos and monitoring survival, and measuring fibrosis of the caudal musculature of adults allowed for testing of acute and late effects, respectively. Results Incubation of zebrafish embryos either before or after irradiation in ethyl pyruvate (1 mM) increased survival. Irradiation of adults to 15 to 75 Gy, delivered in single-fraction at 13 Gy/min, showed dose-dependent fibrosis at 30 days, quantitated as physiological decrease in swimming tail movement, and histopathological detection of collagen deposition in the dorsal musculature. Continuous administration of small-molecule radioprotector drugs in the water after irradiation reduced both acute and chronic injuries. Conclusion The zebrafish is cost-effective for screening new radiation countermeasures. PMID:23160669

  13. Evaluation of buffer zone effectiveness in mitigating the risks associated with agricultural runoff in Prince Edward Island.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, A M; Julien, G; Ernst, W R; Cook, A; Doe, K G; Jackman, P M

    2011-02-01

    To minimize the risk posed by runoff from row crops, Prince Edward Island introduced buffer legislation in 2000. The legislation mandates 10-m and 20-m buffers, respectively, for moderate sloped (i.e. 5%) agricultural fields that border streams. Since 2001, Environment Canada has been evaluating the effectiveness of various buffer widths on operational farms in reducing toxicity and contaminant concentrations in runoff. Sample collectors, placed in 44 fields at the field edge (0m), 10m and at distances out to 30m, collected overland flow following rainfall-induced runoff events. Samples were collected within 24 hours of an event and analysed for seven pesticides (endosulfan, chlorothalonil, carbofuran, linuron, metribuzin, metalaxyl, mancozeb), water quality parameters and Daphnia magna toxicity. The 10-m buffer required for moderate sloped fields was effective at reducing contaminant concentrations but not always to less than lethal concentrations to Daphnia magna. Limited data beyond 10m for fields of both slope types precluded making recommendations on a suitable buffer width for shallow sloped fields and evaluating the effectiveness of 20-m buffers for steep sloped fields. When paired data were combined and statistically tested for all fields, the studied pesticides underwent a 52-98% and 68-100% reduction in aqueous and particulate concentrations within 10m and 30m, respectively. In addition, by 10m, soluble phosphorus, nitrate-nitrogen and total suspended solids were reduced by 34%, 38% and 64%, respectively. Results suggest buffer zones on operational farms are capable of achieving contaminant reductions comparable to those reported for controlled experiments. Inconsistent siting of sample collectors beyond 10m limited the evaluation of the effects of field slope and buffer width on buffer effectiveness on working farms. Future studies on buffer efficiency on operational farms should focus on building the data set beyond 10m and evaluating load reductions. PMID:21163513

  14. Social and structural violence and power relations in mitigating HIV risk of drug-using women in survival sex work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shannon, Kate; Kerr, Thomas; Allinott, Shari; Chettiar, Jill; Shoveller, Jean; Tyndall, Mark W

    2008-02-01

    High rates of violence among street-level sex workers have been described across the globe, while in cities across Canada the disappearance and victimization of drug-using women in survival sex work is ongoing. Given the pervasive levels of violence faced by sex workers over the last decades, and extensive harm reduction and HIV prevention efforts operating in Vancouver, Canada, this research aimed to explore the role of social and structural violence and power relations in shaping the HIV risk environment and prevention practices of women in survival sex work. Through a participatory-action research project, a series of focus group discussions were conceptualized and co-facilitated by sex workers, community and research partners with a total of 46 women in early 2006. Based on thematic, content and theoretical analysis, the following key factors were seen to both directly and indirectly mediate women's agency and access to resources, and ability to practice HIV prevention and harm reduction: at the micro-level, boyfriends as pimps and the 'everyday violence' of bad dates; at the meso-level, a lack of safe places to take dates, and adverse impacts of local policing; and at the macro-level, dopesickness and the need to sell sex for drugs. Analysis of the narratives and daily lived experiences of women sex workers highlight the urgent need for a renewed HIV prevention strategy that moves beyond a solely individual-level focus to structural and environmental interventions, including legal reforms, that facilitate 'enabling environments' for HIV prevention. PMID:18155336

  15. Issues in quality measurement: target population, risk adjustment, and ratings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahian, David M; He, Xia; Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Rankin, J Scott; Peterson, Eric D; Welke, Karl F; Filardo, Giovanni; Shewan, Cynthia M; O'Brien, Sean M

    2013-08-01

    This review investigates three fundamental issues in health care performance measurement: selection of a homogeneous target population, risk adjustment, and assignment of quality rating categories. Many but not all organizations involved in quality measurement have adopted similar approaches to these important methodological issues. To illustrate the practical implications of different profiling strategies, we use The Society of Thoracic Surgeons' data to compare profiling results derived using prevailing analytical methodologies with those obtained from alternative approaches, exemplified by those of a well-known health care performance rating organization. We demonstrate the differences in provider classification that may result from these methodologic decisions. PMID:23816415

  16. Importance measures in reliability, risk, and optimization principles and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Kuo, Way

    2012-01-01

    This unique treatment systematically interprets a spectrum of importance measures to provide a comprehensive overview of their applications in the areas of reliability, network, risk, mathematical programming, and optimization. Investigating the precise relationships among various importance measures, it describes how they are modelled and combined with other design tools to allow users to solve readily many real-world, large-scale decision-making problems.  Presenting the state-of-the-art in network analysis, multistate systems, and application in modern systems, this book offers a c

  17. Mid/Long-Term Action Plan to Mitigate SEE related Risks at the LHC (and required actions)

    CERN Document Server

    Brugger, M; Kramer, Daniel; Losito, R; Myers, S; Perrot, A L; Pojer, M; Røed, K; Roesler, S; Solfaroli, M; Vergara, A; Weisz, S; Wijnands, T; Zanetti, M

    2009-01-01

    Modifications of the LHC schedule and the needed planning for future shutdowns requires an approach compatible with all operational scenarios in order to reduce the failures due to SEE around the machine. The R2E study group recommends a list of short-term actions, to plan, analyse and prepare mid/long-term activities and to assign additional resources. The aim is to maximize the use of available time slots and to allow for a coherent decision on mid/long-term actions to be taken in 2009/10. This decision might be required before measurements during early operation and ongoing radiation tests can allow for a complete analysis of the situation. It is important to note, that the detailed review and analysis of equipments and areas, as well as early measurements and continued radiation tests remain important requirements to be able to make the appropriate future decisions in the coming year(s). The aim of the following approach is to keep during the coming months as many options open as possible and have as many...

  18. Hawaiian cultural influences on support for lava flow hazard mitigation measures during the January 1960 eruption of K?lauea volcano, Kapoho, Hawai‘i

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, C. E.; Houghton, B. F.; Paton, D.; Swanson, D. A.; Lachman, R.; Bonk, W. J.

    2008-05-01

    In 1960, K?lauea volcano in Hawaii erupted, destroying most of the village of Kapoho and forcing evacuation of its approximately 300 residents. A large and unprecedented social science survey was undertaken during the eruption to develop an understanding of human behavior, beliefs, and coping strategies among the adult evacuees ( n = 160). Identical studies were also performed in three control towns located at varying distances from the eruption site ( n = 478). During these studies data were collected that characterized ethnic grouping and attitudes toward Hawaiian cultural issues such as belief in Pele and two lava flow mitigation measures—use of barriers and bombs to influence the flow of lava, but the data were never published. Using these forgotten data, we examined the relationship between Hawaiian cultural issues and attitudes toward the use of barriers and bombs as mitigation strategies to protect Kapoho. On average, 72% of respondents favored the construction of earthen barriers to hold back or divert lava and protect Kapoho, but far fewer agreed with the military's use of bombs (14%) to protect Kapoho. In contrast, about one-third of respondents conditionally agreed with the use of bombs. It is suggested that local participation in the bombing strategy may explain the increased conditional acceptance of bombs as a mitigation tool, although this can not be conclusively demonstrated. Belief in Pele and being of Hawaiian ethnicity did not reduce support for the use of barriers, but did reduce support for bombs in both bombing scenarios. The disparity in levels of acceptance of barriers versus bombing and of one bombing strategy versus another suggests that historically public attitudes toward lava flow hazard mitigation strategies were complex. A modern comparative study is needed before the next damaging eruption to inform debates and decisions about whether or not to interfere with the flow of lava. Recent changes in the current eruption of K?lauea make this a timely topic.

  19. Biological invasions: deriving the regions at risk from partial measurements

    CERN Document Server

    Cristofol, Michel

    2009-01-01

    We consider the problem of forecasting the regions at higher risk for newly introduced invasive species. Favourable and unfavourable regions may indeed not be known a priori, especially for exotic species whose hosts in native range and newly-colonised areas can be different. Assuming that the species is modelled by a logistic-like reaction-diffusion equation, we prove that the spatial arrangement of the favourable and unfavourable regions can theoretically be determined using only partial measurements of the population density: 1) a local "spatio-temporal" measurement, during a short time period and, 2) a "spatial" measurement in the whole region susceptible to colonisation. We then present a stochastic algorithm which is proved analytically, and then on several numerical examples, to be effective in deriving these regions.

  20. Minimising mortality in endangered raptors due to power lines: the importance of spatial aggregation to optimize the application of mitigation measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guil, Francisco; Fernández-Olalla, Mariana; Moreno-Opo, Rubén; Mosqueda, Ignacio; Gómez, María Elena; Aranda, Antonio; Arredondo, Angel; Guzmán, José; Oria, Javier; González, Luis Mariano; Margalida, Antoni

    2011-01-01

    Electrocution by power lines is one of the main causes of non-natural mortality in birds of prey. In an area in central Spain, we surveyed 6304 pylons from 333 power lines to determine electrocution rates, environmental and design factors that may influence electrocution and the efficacy of mitigation measures used to minimise electrocution cases. A total of 952 electrocuted raptors, representing 14 different species, were observed. Electrocuted raptors were concentrated in certain areas and the environmental factors associated with increased electrocution events were: greater numbers of prey animals; greater vegetation cover; and shorter distance to roads. The structural elements associated with electrocutions were shorter strings of insulators, one or more phases over the crossarm, cross-shaped design and pylon function. Of the 952 carcasses found, 148 were eagles, including golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos), Spanish imperial eagle (Aquila adalberti) and Bonelli's eagle (Aquila fasciata). Electrocuted eagles were clustered in smaller areas than other electrocuted raptors. The factors associated with increased eagle electrocution events were: pylons function, shorter strings of insulators, higher slopes surrounding the pylon, and more numerous potential prey animals. Pylons with increased string of insulators had lower raptor electrocution rates than unimproved pylons, although this technique was unsuccessful for eagles. Pylons with cable insulation showed higher electrocution rates than unimproved pylons, both for raptors and eagles, despite this is the most widely used and recommended mitigation measure in several countries. To optimize the application of mitigation measures, our results recommend the substitution of pin-type insulators to suspended ones and elongating the strings of insulators. PMID:22140549

  1. Clarifying socio-economic impacts and mitigation measures related to potential changes in missions at the Rocky Flats Plant. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Research conducted to clarify the socioeconomic impacts on the Denver-Boulder area of potential changes in missions at the Rocky Flats Plant and the mitigation measures taken to contain these impacts are described. Two primary alternatives have been examined, including the relocation of certain activities associated with radioactive materials, as well as a total phase out of the plant over the next decade. These perspectives include an assessment of alternative uses for Rocky Flats by both governmental agencies and private sector developers. Major findings address location, employment, public involvement, private enterprises, community attitudes, employee relocation; land use; and environment

  2. Comprehensive quality assurance study of radon measurements developed under the Air Force Radon Assessment and Mitigation Program (RAMP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Air Force Radon Assessment and Mitigation Program (RAMP) is a comprehensive, ongoing program to assess the occurrence, concentration, and potential health hazards of radon at Air Force facilities worldwide. During the current detailed assessment phase of RAMP, several tens of thousands of alpha track detectors have been purchased and deployed for one year in Air Force structures worldwide. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of quality assurance results for RAMP based on analysis of detectors that have been exposed to known laboratory concentrations of radon or have been collocated in Air Force buildings. The purpose of this analysis is to tighten the required 95% structures from unnecessary and costly remediation

  3. Evaluating the RiskMetrics Methodology in Measuring Volatility and Value-at-Risk in Financial Markets

    CERN Document Server

    Pafka, S; Pafka, Szilard; Kondor, Imre

    2001-01-01

    We analyze the performance of RiskMetrics, a widely used methodology for measuring market risk. Based on the assumption of normally distributed returns, the RiskMetrics model completely ignores the presence of fat tails in the distribution function, which is an important feature of financial data. Nevertheless, it was commonly found that RiskMetrics performs satisfactorily well, and therefore the technique has become widely used in the financial industry. We find, however, that the success of RiskMetrics is the artifact of the choice of the risk measure. First, the outstanding performance of volatility estimates is basically due to the choice of a very short (one-period ahead) forecasting horizon. Second, the satisfactory performance in obtaining Value-at-Risk by simply multiplying volatility with a constant factor is mainly due to the choice of the particular significance level.

  4. The Balloon Analog Insurance Task (BAIT): A Behavioral Measure of Protective Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Essex, Brian G.; Lejuez, Carl W.; Qian, Rebecca Y.; Bernstein, Katherine; Zald, David H.

    2011-01-01

    Prior methods used to assess individual differences related to risk have not focused on an important component of risk management: how willing individuals are to pay for or take actions to insure what they already have. It is not clear whether this type of protective risk management taps into the same individual differences as does risk taking propensity measured by existing risk taking tasks. We developed a novel task to assess protective risk management, the Balloon Analog Insurance Task (B...

  5. The Basel II Accord on Measuring and Managing a Bank's Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Ion Stancu; Andrei Tinca

    2007-01-01

    The abundance of risk metrics stems from the effort to measure the difference between the expected and actual returns, under a hypothesis of normality. Under the assumption of risk aversion, investors are likely to quantify risk using metrics which measure returns lower than the expected average. These include the semi-variance of returns smaller than the average, the risk of loss – a return under a chosen level, usually 0%, and value-at-risk, for the greatest losses, with a probability of ...

  6. The Measure and Control of Enterprise Marketing Risk in the E-business Environment

    OpenAIRE

    Lingbing Hu; Baoyin Zhang; Yu Wu

    2009-01-01

    In this article, through analyzing the change of enterprise marketing mode and the characters of marketing risk in the e-business environment, we establish the 3D embedded random measure model which suits for the e-business enterprise marketing risk, define the combination rules of the risk index system of this model, establish the theoretical base to measure the marketing risk for e-business enterprises, and analyze the warning and control of enterprise marketing risk under the model.

  7. Measuring and handling risk : How different financial institutions face the same problem

    OpenAIRE

    Ro?rden, Sarah; Wille, Kristofer

    2010-01-01

    Title: Measuring and handling risk - How different financial institutions face the same problem Seminar date: 4th of June, 2010   Level: Bachelor thesis in Business Administration, Basic level 300, 15 ECTS Authors: Sarah Rörden and Kristofer Wille Supervisor: Angelina Sundström Subject terms: Risk variables, Risk measurement, Risk management, Modern Portfolio Theory, Diversification, Beta Target group: Everyone who has basic knowledge of financial theories and risk principles but lacks the...

  8. Hydrogen related risks within a private garage: Concentration measurements in a realistic full scale experimental facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gupta, Sanjeev; Brinster, Jerome; Studer, Etienne; Tkatschenko, Isabelle [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, CEA Saclay, DEN/DANS/DM2S/SFME/LEEF, 91191 Gif sur Yvette Cedex (France)

    2009-07-15

    The next generation of hydrogen energy based vehicles is expected to come into widespread use in the near future. Various topics related to hydrogen including, production, storage, and application of hydrogen as an energy carrier, have become subjects of discussion in the framework of various European and international projects. Safety information is vital to support the successful introduction into mainstream and public acceptance of hydrogen as an energy carrier. One of such issues, which is seeking major attention is related to hydrogen powered vehicles parked inside a confined area (such as in a private garage). It is of utmost importance to predict, if uncontrolled release of hydrogen from a vehicle parked inside a confined area can create an explosive atmosphere. Subsequently, how preventive measures can be implied to control these explosive atmospheres, if present inside a confined area? There is little guidance currently developed for confined areas accommodating hydrogen fuelled vehicles. It is essential that mitigation measures for such conditions become established. The present work is developed in the framework of 'European Network of Excellence HySafe' and the French national project DRIVE (experimental data for the evaluation of hydrogen risks onboard vehicles, the validation of numerical tools and the edition of guidelines). This paper investigates the possible non-catastrophic scenarios that may arise in a real situation from a hydrogen fuelled vehicle parked inside a garage. The studied test cases evaluate the influence of injected volumes of hydrogen and the initial conditions at the leakage source on the dispersion and mixing characteristics in an unobstructed confined environment. The mixing process and build-up of hydrogen concentration are measured for the duration of 24 h. Due to safety reasons, helium is used instead of hydrogen. (author)

  9. Hydrogen related risks within a private garage: Concentration measurements in a realistic full scale experimental facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The next generation of hydrogen energy based vehicles is expected to come into widespread use in the near future. Various topics related to hydrogen including, production, storage, and application of hydrogen as an energy carrier, have become subjects of discussion in the framework of various European and international projects. Safety information is vital to support the successful introduction into mainstream and public acceptance of hydrogen as an energy carrier. One of such issues, which is seeking major attention is related to hydrogen powered vehicles parked inside a confined area (such as in a private garage). It is of utmost importance to predict, if uncontrolled release of hydrogen from a vehicle parked inside a confined area can create an explosive atmosphere. Subsequently, how preventive measures can be implied to control these explosive atmospheres, if present inside a confined area? There is little guidance currently developed for confined areas accommodating hydrogen fuelled vehicles. It is essential that mitigation measures for such conditions become established. The present work is developed in the framework of 'European Network of Excellence HySafe' and the French national project DRIVE (experimental data for the evaluation of hydrogen risks onboard vehicles, the validation of numerical tools and the edition of guidelines). This paper investigates the possible non-catastrophic scenarios that may arise in a real situation from a hydrogen fuelled vehicle situation from a hydrogen fuelled vehicle parked inside a garage. The studied test cases evaluate the influence of injected volumes of hydrogen and the initial conditions at the leakage source on the dispersion and mixing characteristics in an unobstructed confined environment. The mixing process and build-up of hydrogen concentration are measured for the duration of 24 h. Due to safety reasons, helium is used instead of hydrogen. (authors)

  10. Environmental factors driving the effectiveness of European agri-environmental measures in mitigating pollinator loss--a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheper, Jeroen; Holzschuh, Andrea; Kuussaari, Mikko; Potts, Simon G; Rundlöf, Maj; Smith, Henrik G; Kleijn, David

    2013-07-01

    In Europe, agri-environmental schemes (AES) have been introduced in response to concerns about farmland biodiversity declines. Yet, as AES have delivered variable results, a better understanding of what determines their success or failure is urgently needed. Focusing on pollinating insects, we quantitatively reviewed how environmental factors affect the effectiveness of AES. Our results suggest that the ecological contrast in floral resources created by schemes drives the response of pollinators to AES but that this response is moderated by landscape context and farmland type, with more positive responses in croplands (vs. grasslands) located in simple (vs. cleared or complex) landscapes. These findings inform us how to promote pollinators and associated pollination services in species-poor landscapes. They do not, however, present viable strategies to mitigate loss of threatened or endangered species. This indicates that the objectives and design of AES should distinguish more clearly between biodiversity conservation and delivery of ecosystem services. PMID:23714393

  11. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  12. 40 CFR 51.860 - Mitigation of air quality impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ...action of another governmental or private entity, approval by the Federal agency must be conditioned on the other entity meeting the mitigation measures...mitigation measures is subject to the reporting requirements of § 51.856 and...

  13. Full structural weld overlay application as a repair or mitigation measure for PWSCC susceptible alloy 82/182 DM welds in PWR plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In recent years, cracking due to Primary Water Stress Corrosion Cracking (PWSCC) have been observed in Alloy 82/182 dissimilar metal (DM) welds both in the United States and abroad. These DM welds are used to connect stainless steel piping to low alloy steel or carbon steel components in Pressurizer Water Reactor (PWR) plants. Full Structural weld overlay (FSWOL) was implemented in some cases as a repair technique to mitigate PWSCC at these welds. Such repair technique is an acceptable ASME Code repair method and has already been successfully used to repair Intergranular Stress Corrosion Cracking (IGSCC) at the stainless steel pipe welds in Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) plants in the United States for over twenty years. FSWOL is a repair technique that can be used to reinforce nozzle safe end regions and pipes in PWR plants susceptible to PWSCC with cracks present. Such technique can also be used as a mitigation technique at locations without any cracking but are susceptible to PWSCC. The technique involves the application of a specified thickness and length of PWSCC resistant weld material over the region of interest in a configuration that maintains structural integrity and meets the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Section XI Code margins with cracks present. The reinforcement material forms a structural barrier to PWSCC and produces a compressive residual stress condition at the inner portion of the pipe that mitigates future crack initiation and/or pmitigates future crack initiation and/or propagation due to PWSCC. In addition, full structural weld overlay improves inspectability of the nozzle safe end weld regions and facilitates volumetric examinations by minimizing discontinuities in the nozzle safe end weld regions. Purpose of this paper is to describe the methodology and criteria for applying FSWOL as either a repair or mitigation measure for PWSCC susceptible Alloy 82/182 DM welds in PWR plants. It is planned by KHNP to have the methodology and criteria be implemented for the Pressurizer nozzles of Kori Unit 1. To implement the Kori Unit 1 FSWOL three major tasks have to be performed together to make the project successful in addition to good planning, and training. Three major tasks are: 1) SWOL design and qualification 2) Welding process technique development and qualifications 3) Ultrasonic examination method and qualifications To illustrate these three major tasks Figures or photos of each task are included. Each task and associated Figures and photos will be presented in the conference

  14. SDDP for multistage stochastic linear programs based on spectral risk measures

    OpenAIRE

    Guiges, Vincent; R Ouml Misch, Werner

    2012-01-01

    We consider risk-averse formulations of multistage stochastic linear programs. For these formulations, based on convex combinations of spectral risk measures, risk-averse dynamic programming equations can be written. As a result, the Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) algorithm can be used to obtain approximations of the corresponding risk-averse recourse functions. This allows us to de?ne a risk-averse nonanticipative feasible policy for the stochastic linear program. Formulas...

  15. Nuclear risk reduction measures in South Asia: problems and prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The last couple of years have brought significant changes in the relations between India and Pakistan. At the political level these include: the meeting of Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and President Pervez Musharraf in Islamabad in January 2004 and their readiness to revive the framework of contacts between India and Pakistan that was suspended following the crisis in 2001-2; the assumption of power by the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in May 2004 and its determination to continue the peace process initiated by the previous government; and the meeting between the new Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and General Pervez Musharraf in New York in September 2004, in New Delhi in April 2005 and again in New York in September 2005. Changes at the nuclear level have also been notable as evidenced in the several rounds of Indo-Pakistani expert level talks on Nuclear Confidence Building Measures held since 2004. The joint statement released after the second meeting of Islamabad in 2004 reiterated their commitment 'to keep working towards elaboration and implementation of nuclear confidence building measures within the agreed framework of the Lahore MoU of 1999 and the Joint Statement of 20 June 2004'. Despite these changes, however, the risk of intentional, accidental and unauthorized use of nuclear weapons remain a serious concern

  16. Optimal security investments and extreme risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohtadi, Hamid; Agiwal, Swati

    2012-08-01

    In the aftermath of 9/11, concern over security increased dramatically in both the public and the private sector. Yet, no clear algorithm exists to inform firms on the amount and the timing of security investments to mitigate the impact of catastrophic risks. The goal of this article is to devise an optimum investment strategy for firms to mitigate exposure to catastrophic risks, focusing on how much to invest and when to invest. The latter question addresses the issue of whether postponing a risk mitigating decision is an optimal strategy or not. Accordingly, we develop and estimate both a one-period model and a multiperiod model within the framework of extreme value theory (EVT). We calibrate these models using probability measures for catastrophic terrorism risks associated with attacks on the food sector. We then compare our findings with the purchase of catastrophic risk insurance. PMID:22694261

  17. Extreme Drought, Fire and Harvest Impacts on Pacific Northwest Forests, and the Effects of Future Climate and Mitigation Measures on the Carbon Balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, B. E.; Hudiburg, T. W.; Luyssaert, S.; Coops, N.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change is affecting the odds of extreme weather events, including increased frequency of drought events. Under past and current climate and land management conditions in the Pacific Northwest, natural (drought, fire) and anthropogenic (harvest) disturbances interact across landscapes to affect the carbon balance of forests. Biomass and productivity are high (Hudiburg et al. 2009, 2011), harvest and wildfire are the major disturbances, and harvest removals dominate the net ecosystem carbon balance. We used AmeriFlux observations, inventories, remote sensing data, and models to understand current and future effects on forest distributions and the carbon balance, and the effects of mitigation measures. The region is divided into the mild coastal climate and inland continental conditions with colder winters and drier forests in the rain shadow of the Cascade Mountains. In semi-arid ponderosa pine forests of the East Cascades ecoregion, NEP was reduced by ~44% during a series of extreme drought years compared with a seven year average, consistent with western region average impacts, and there were carry-over effects the following year. Reduction in GPP was proportionately larger than reduction in ecosystem respiration during drought. In the mild climate of the Coast Range, Douglas-fir NEP was reduced ~40% in a single drought year, but recovered quickly in subsequent 'normal' years. Douglas-fir tends to be very plastic and can take up carbon during the winter months when temperature is above freezing, but this isn't seen in ponderosa pine due to colder winter temperatures. Model projections of impacts of future climate on PNW forests suggest larger changes in the eastern dry part of the region, while predicted impacts on Coast Range forests are more variable. Modeling and observations suggest the Pacific Ocean may moderate climate and buffer the coastal forests. With projected increases in extreme drought events, particularly where dry systems are expected to become drier, the narrow band of ponderosa pine on the east side of the Cascades may shift towards the mountains and contract in range, while replaced by juniper woodlands or shrublands. Mitigation measures such as thinning of the dry forests to reduce competition for water are already being implemented, and proposed for the coastal forests. CLM4 simulations with future climate (1/8 deg) and RCP4.5 (moderate GHG reduction) suggest a slight increase in NEP, and thinning of vulnerable forests will result in no significant change in NEP but a decrease in NBP by the 21st century compared with that of current harvest levels. There is a need to improve our ability to identify forests most vulnerable to mortality by fire, drought, temperature, and/or beetle attack to inform mitigation measures and facilitate natural adaptation.

  18. Analysis of the effects of hydrogen burning and measures taken for their mitigation at the Loviisa nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Loviisa plant units are furnished with a pressurized water reactor and an ice condenser type containment. The relatively low design pressure of this type of containment enhances the need for analysis of the consequences of burning of postulated large amounts of hydrogen released into the containment. In 1982 such an analysis was undertaken in cooperation with Westinghouse Electric Corporation, utilizing the tools available at that time. Hydrogen releases for several accident scenarios were estimated using the March code. The response of the containment to the controlled burning of the released hydrogen was calculated using the Clasix computer code developed by Offshore Power Systems (a subsidiary of Westinghouse). The assumption of controlled burning was based on the planned installation of hydrogen igniters in the containment. The result of this analysis indicated that the containment could withstand the pressure and temperature loadings imposed by the burning hydrogen. Subsequently to this analysis work, a mitigating system consisting of about 70 igniters, specifically made for this application, was installed and commissioned at both units of the Loviisa plant. (author)

  19. Survey for the advertising effectiveness measurement of the website 'risk information navigator' and the risk message materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk communication activities are important for promoting mutual understanding between local communities and the Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute (hereinafter referred to as JNC). The Risk Communication Study Team of JNC Tokai Works has started practical studies to promote further mutual understanding with the local communities. Several communication tools such as poster panels, slide materials, videos, website contents and newsletters were developed as part of its risk communication activities. This paper describes the survey of the internet users in prefectures where nuclear power stations are located, for the advertising effectiveness measurement of nuclear risk information provided on the web site 'Risk Information Navigator' (http://ricotti.jnc.go.jp/risknavi/) and the risk message materials jointly produced by Tokai village's people and JNC. (author)

  20. Assessing the cost-effectiveness of seismic risk reduction options in oil industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An integrated probabilistic methodology for cost-efficiency estimation of different sort of seismic risk management measures are introduced by adding Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) module to an integrated seismic risk assessment model. An oil refinery in Iran has been selected for case study and cost-efficiency of software and hardware mitigation measures are evaluated. The results have shown that: (1) software mitigation measures have more benefit than hardware ones, (2) considering indirect loss in CBA lead to more benefit-cost ratio and (3) although increase of discount ratio decreases the benefit-cost ratio, the arrangement of mitigation measures from benefit-cost viewpoint are constant. (authors)

  1. Impactos ambientais da mobilidade urbana: cinco categorias de medidas mitigadoras / Environmental impacts of urban mobility: five categories of mitigating measures

    Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

    Rafael, Barczak; Fábio, Duarte.

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available SciELO Brazil | Language: Portuguese Abstract in portuguese Desde 1970, a emissão de CO2 no setor industrial cresceu 65% em todo o mundo, contra 120% no de transportes - e 80% da energia utilizada para a mobilidade área urbana têm origem na queima de combustíveis fósseis. Assim, a motorização da mobilidade urbana é um dos principais emissores de gases de efe [...] ito estufa. Para analisar este cenário, este artigo toma como base a produção científica internacional produzida do Protocolo de Kyoto (1997) à conferência de Copenhague (2008) para levantar quais principais medidas para a redução do impacto ambiental, especialmente das emissões de CO2. Argumenta-se aqui que são cinco os grupos de medidas a partir da discussão de textos técnicos de órgãos internacionais e produção científica, sendo: econômico-fiscais e financeiras; regulatórias; informação e comunicação; planejamento urbano; e tecnológicas. Abstract in english Since 1970, in a world level emission of CO2 in industry has increased 65 percent; during the same period, it increased up to 120 percent in the transportation sector. And 80 percent of the energy used in urban mobility comes from fossil fuels. The motorization of urban mobility has therefore become [...] one of the main sources of greenhouse gases. We propose here an analysis of this scenario based on papers published by international scientific journals between 1997 (Kyoto Protocol) and 2008 (Copenhage Conference), trying to map which are the main mitigating actions which have been advanced by the scientific community and technical reports by international agencies. We argue here that these actions could be grouped in five categories: financial and economical; regulatory; information and communication; urban planning; and technological.

  2. Non-Parametric methods: An application for the risk measurement

    OpenAIRE

    Zeballos, David

    2010-01-01

    Currently, the financial institutions are exposed to different types of risks, which has increased the need for new analytical instruments for the risk management, being one of most developed the Value at Risk (VaR). There are different methods of calculation; however, as it was affirmed, there exists an increasing need to be provided with analytical tools that shape the behavior of the financial markets in a more accurate way, in this sense, the present work proposes the calculation of the V...

  3. Process business risk: a methodology for assessing and mitigating the financial impact of process plant accidents; Avaliacao de risco ao negocio devido a acidentes de processo em plantas industriais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Almeida, Ana Cristina C.; Bardy, Mariana B. [Det Norske Veritas (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    Traditional risk management has focused on effects on people, particularly when using Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA). A much broader approach is being adopted nowadays, with companies beginning to consider potential accidental losses in their decision making process. This paper describes a study where business risks from major accident hazards were assessed for a large petrochemical plant. The results are presented as F-Cost curves, which are similar to traditional F-N curves, but represent cumulative frequencies of events versus their cost, instead of fatalities. A different variety of costs can be evaluated as property damage, business interruption, inventory loss, environmental loss, clean-up costs, legal costs, fatality and injury costs, amongst others. As final objective of the study insurance values can be adjusted as well as decisions on reducing risk can be made based on the actual benefit, considering the reduction of losses and the amount to be spent on mitigating major risks. Also, values for civil liability insurance can be reviewed, based on the hazards that can result in fatalities and injuries, as well as property losses, for third parties. This paper presents the results of a study which involved the evaluation of the company's civil liability. The key driver was to consider a more accurate value for the company insurance policy, considering the different losses that major accident can lead on for a community and industries located nearby a petrochemical plant. The results of the analysis are presented as F-Cost curves and we describe the risk-based decision making process and criteria adopted by the company to set the maximum loss value to be insured for civil liability. In conclusion, this paper presents results from a real life example of the application of the quantitative evaluation of business risks, illustrating that a financial or business risk approach can help management in day-to-day decisions when considering possible effects of major chemical process accidents. (author)

  4. Security engineering: Phisical security measures for high-risk personnel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena S. Cice

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The design of physical security measures is a specialized technical area that does not fall in the normal skill record and resume of commanders, architects, engineers, and project managers. This document provides guidance to those parties tasked with implementing existing and emerging physical protection system requirements: -    Creation of a single-source reference for the design and construction of physical security measures for high-risk personnel (HRP. -    Promulgation of multi-service standard recommendations and considerations. -    Potential increase of productivity of HRP and reduced temporary housing costs through clarification of considerations, guidance on planning, and provision of design solutions. -    Reduction of facility project costs. -    Better performance of modernized facilities, in terms of force protection, than original facilities. Throughout this process you must ensure: confidentiality, appropriate Public Relations, sustainability, compliance with all industrial guidelines and legal and regulatory requirement, constant review and revision to accommodate new circumstances or threats. Introduction Physical security is an extremely broad topic. It encompasses access control devices such as smart cards, air filtration and fireproofing. It is also heavily reliant on infrastructure. This means that many of the ideal physical security measures may not be economically or physically feasible for existing sites. Many businesses do not have the option of building their own facility from the ground up; thus physical security often must be integrated into an existing structure. This limits the overall set of security measures that can be installed. There is an aspect of physical security that is often overlooked; the humans that interact with it. Humans commit crime for a number of reasons. The document focuses on two building types: the HRP office and the HRP residence. HRP are personnel who are likely to be terrorist or criminal targets based on their grade, assignment, symbolic value, criticality, and threat and vulnerability assessment. Levels of protection The recommendations contained in this criterion are intended to minimize the possibility of HRP casualties in buildings or portions of buildings in which they work and live. These recommendations provide appropriate and implementable measures to establish a level of protection against terrorist attacks where no known threat of terrorist activity currently exists. While complete protection against all potential threats is cost prohibitive, the intent of these recommendations can be achieved through prudent master planning, real estate acquisition, and design and construction practices. Tag number The tag number at the beginning of each physical security measure (recommendation is unique and is intended to be a communication aid when linking the requirement (recommendation to the supporting text or commentary. The three-character tag number uses the following legend. Tag Number First Character -The first character is an abbreviation for the defense zone layer that is most applicable for the countermeasure. “S” is used to represent site or external zone issues. “P” is used to represent the perimeter zone. “G” is used to represent issues relative to the property grounds. “E” is used to represent issues associated with the building exterior of the HRP office or residence. “I” is used to represent issues associated with the building interior. “H” is used to represent issues associated with the safe room or safe haven. Tag Number Second Character - The second character is a sequential number for countermeasures in a given zone - a requirement or a recommendation. This number ensures a unique tag number. Tag Number Third Character- The third character indicates whether the countermeasure is applicable to offices, residences, or both (common. “O” indicates a requirement or recommendation unique to offices. “R” represents a requirement or recommendation to residences. “C” represents a com

  5. The Basel II Accord on Measuring and Managing a Bank's Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Stancu

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available The abundance of risk metrics stems from the effort to measure the difference between the expected and actual returns, under a hypothesis of normality. Under the assumption of risk aversion, investors are likely to quantify risk using metrics which measure returns lower than the expected average. These include the semi-variance of returns smaller than the average, the risk of loss – a return under a chosen level, usually 0%, and value-at-risk, for the greatest losses, with a probability of less than 1-5% in a given period of time. The Basel II accord improves on the way risks are measured, by allowing banks greater flexibility. There is an increase in the complexity of measuring credit risks, the market risks measurement methods remain the same, and the measurement of operational risk is introduced for the first time. The most advanced (and widely-used risk metrics are based on VaR. However, it must be noted that VaR calculations are statistical, and therefore unlikely to forecast extraordinary events. So the quality of a VaR calculation must be checked using back-testing, and if the VaR value fails in a percentage of 1-5% of the cases, then the premises of the model must be changed.

  6. Impact of Fitness Versus Obesity on Routinely Measured Cardiometabolic Risk in Young, Healthy Adults

    OpenAIRE

    Vranian, Michael N.; Keenan, Tanya; Blaha, Michael J.; Silverman, Michael G.; Michos, Erin D.; Minder, C. Michael; Blumenthal, Roger S.; Nasir, Khurram; Meneghelo, Romeu S.; Santos, Raul D.

    2013-01-01

    Obesity demonstrates a direct relation with cardiovascular risk and all-cause mortality, while cardiorespiratory fitness demonstrates an inverse relation. In clinical practice, several cardiometabolic (“CM”) risk factors are commonly measured to gauge cardiovascular risk yet the interaction between fitness and obesity with regard CM risk has not been fully explored. We studied 2,634 Brazilian adults referred for an employer-sponsored heath exam. Obesity was defined as BMI >30 kg/m2 or wai...

  7. Information Security Risk Assessment Based on Information Measure and Fuzzy Clustering

    OpenAIRE

    Guo-hong Gao; Xue-yong Li; Bao-jian Zhang; Wen-xian Xiao

    2011-01-01

    To address the problems of lack of training data and difficult to find optimal value in information security risk assessment, this paper applying a new information measure method and fuzzy clustering in information security risk assessment. The new method quantifies risk factors of all data and the dependence degree of safety with the mutual information computing. Then search optimal points in each degree of risk as original center points of K-means clustering algorithm, and use the K-means c...

  8. Performance experience with radon mitigation systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Both passive and active radon mitigations were installed in four houses with slab-on-grade or combined crawlspace/slab-on-grade basements. Passive mitigation reduced indoor radon by 40 to 80%. Combined passive and active mitigation was necessary for reducing radon levels to below 150 Bq m-3. Active mitigation employed sub vapor-barrier and/or subslab depressurization. The number of subslab mitigation pits needed at each house was determined by diagnostic measurements of permeability and pressure-field extension. Performances of the mitigation systems at three houses were stable over one year. Increasing permeability in the hard-packed clay beneath the slab of one house may result in decreased effectiveness of the subslab depressurization. 2 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

  9. Steps in preparing and biodiversity section of climate change action plan. Development and evolution of forestry and biodiversity mitigation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Methodic for drawing up of national action plans on prevention of unfavorable consequences of climate change in forestry is described. Approaches to development and measures evolution in these fields on greenhouse effect reduce are considered. (author)

  10. Space debris mitigation: extension of the SDM tool - executive summary

    OpenAIRE

    Anselmo, Luciano; Cordelli, Alessandro; Pardini, Carmen; Rossi, Alessandro

    2000-01-01

    The Space Debris Mitigation long-term analysis program (SDM, Version 2.0) has been developed to study the long-term evolution of orbital debris and to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation measures

  11. Farmers Prone to Drought Risk: Why Some Farmers Undertake Farm-Level Risk-Reduction Measures While Others Not?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

    2015-03-01

    This research investigates farmers' cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer the question of why some people show adaptive behavior while others do not, a socio-psychological model of precautionary adaptation based on protection motivation theory and trans-theoretical stage model has been applied for the first time to areas of drought risk in the developing countries cultural context. The applicability of the integrated model is explored by means of a representative sample survey of smallholder farmers in northern Ethiopia. The result of the study showed that there is a statistically significant association between farmer's behavioral intention to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures and the main important protection motivation model variables. High perceived vulnerability, severity of consequences, self-efficacy, and response efficacy lead to higher levels of behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. For farmers in the action stage, self-efficacy and response efficacy were the main motivators of behavioral intention. For farmers in the contemplative stage, self-efficacy and cost appear to be the main motivators for them to act upon risk reduction, while perceived severity of consequences and cost of response actions were found to be important for farmers in the pre-contemplative stage.

  12. Navigational Traffic Conflict Technique: A Proactive Approach to Quantitative Measurement of Collision Risks in Port Waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debnath, Ashim Kumar; Chin, Hoong Chor

    Navigational safety analysis relying on collision statistics is often hampered because of the low number of observations. A promising alternative approach that overcomes this problem is proposed in this paper. By analyzing critical vessel interactions this approach proactively measures collision risk in port waters. The proposed method is illustrated for quantitative measurement of collision risks in Singapore port fairways, and validated by examining correlations between the measured risks with those perceived by pilots. This method is an ethically appealing alternative to the collision-based analysis for fast, reliable and effective safety assessment, thus possessing great potential for managing collision risks in port waters.

  13. Ethical aspects of the mitigation obstruction argument against climate engineering research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrow, David R

    2014-12-28

    Many commentators fear that climate engineering research might lead policy-makers to reduce mitigation efforts. Most of the literature on this so-called 'moral hazard' problem focuses on the prediction that climate engineering research would reduce mitigation efforts. This paper focuses on a related ethical question: Why would it be a bad thing if climate engineering research obstructed mitigation? If climate engineering promises to be effective enough, it might justify some reduction in mitigation. Climate policy portfolios involving sufficiently large or poorly planned reductions in mitigation, however, could lead to an outcome that would be worse than the portfolio that would be chosen in the absence of further climate engineering research. This paper applies three ethical perspectives to describe the kinds of portfolios that would be worse than that 'baseline portfolio'. The literature on climate engineering identifies various mechanisms that might cause policy-makers to choose these inferior portfolios, but it is difficult to know in advance whether the existence of these mechanisms means that climate engineering research really would lead to a worse outcome. In the light of that uncertainty, a precautionary approach suggests that researchers should take measures to reduce the risk of mitigation obstruction. Several such measures are suggested. PMID:25404676

  14. The value of pressure ulcer risk assessment and interface pressure measurements in patients: A nursing perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Weststrate, J. T. M.

    2005-01-01

    Pressure sores in an intensive care unit 35 and related variables: a descriptive study Prevalence of pressure ulcers, risk factors 47 and the use of pressure-relieving mattresses in ICU patients The clinical relevance of the Waterlow 61 Pressure Sore Risk Scale in the ICU The reproducibility of interface pressure 75 measurements in patients at risk of developing a pressure ulcer A comparison of interface pressure 91 measurements between patient...

  15. Labour Income Risk over the Life Cycle: Measurement and Implications

    OpenAIRE

    Nicodano, Giovanna; Bagliano, Fabio Cesare; Fugazza, Carolina

    2011-01-01

    Population ageing induced an increased role of pension funds in granting retirement income, due to the expected reduction in social security benefits. One unresolved challenge is the assessment of labor income risk, as this is the background risk to be hedged with appropriate savings and investment choices by pension fund members. This issue lies at the heart of our project, which is composed of three closely related parts and will result in three working papers. I. Indu...

  16. Measurement, Monitoring, and Forecasting of Consumer Credit Default Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Schwarz, Alexandra

    2011-01-01

    The statistical techniques which cover the process of modeling and evaluating consumer credit risk have become widely accepted instruments in risk management. In contrast, we find only few and vague statements on how to define the default event, i. e. on the concrete circumstances that lead to the decision of identifying a certain credit as defaulted. Based on a unique data set of individual payment histories this paper proposes a definition of default which is based on the time due amoun...

  17. RISK MARKERS FOR DEPRESSION IN ADOLESCENTS: SLEEP AND HPA MEASURES

    OpenAIRE

    Rao, Uma; Hammen, Constance L.; Poland, Russell E.

    2009-01-01

    Previous work has demonstrated reliable electroencephalographic (EEG) sleep and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) changes associated with adult major depressive disorder. These changes might be evident before clinical manifestation of the illness in at-risk persons. The aim of the study was to identify depression-related EEG sleep and HPA changes in healthy adolescents at high-risk for depression, and to examine the relationship between EEG sleep (or HPA) changes and the onset of depressio...

  18. Mitigation diagnostics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper reports that experience in the remediation of schools and other large buildings has shown the importance of the effects of both the location of geologic sources and HVAC-induced distribution of indoor radon. In general, elevated radon in areas of schools with evenly distributed HVAC pressures are correlated with maximum soil radon emanations. However, strong or unequal HVAC effects can redistribute indoor radon to areas away from the direct source. Effective remediation required a complete understanding of both contributions. In some schools, highest indoor radon levels were located near large return ducts and were attributed to proximity to negative HVAC pressure. Successful sub-slab depressurization systems were installed, however, in rooms with lower indoor but greatest sub-slab radon levels, closest to the source. This shows the inadequacy of using indoor radon levels alone as a basis for remediation. Wings of two other schools with radon problems have equivalent window fan coil units in rooms of equal size and no central HVAC system. Highest indoor radon levels correlated well with highest sub-slab radon levels due to the equivalent effects of the window units. Diagnostic tests in other schools have revealed: blockwall radon transport to upper floors; high blockwall radon adjacent to sub-slab sources; and elevated indoor radon over crawlspace being drawn upward by HVAC-induced negative pressure, determined from indoor to outdoor micromanometer measurem indoor to outdoor micromanometer measurements

  19. Mitigation of Malicious Attacks on Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Schneider, Christian M; Andrade, Jose S; Havlin, Shlomo; Herrmann, Hans J; 10.1073/pnas.1009440108

    2011-01-01

    Terrorist attacks on transportation networks have traumatized modern societies. With a single blast, it has become possible to paralyze airline traffic, electric power supply, ground transportation or Internet communication. How and at which cost can one restructure the network such that it will become more robust against a malicious attack? We introduce a unique measure for robustness and use it to devise a method to mitigate economically and efficiently this risk. We demonstrate its efficiency on the European electricity system and on the Internet as well as on complex networks models. We show that with small changes in the network structure (low cost) the robustness of diverse networks can be improved dramatically while their functionality remains unchanged. Our results are useful not only for improving significantly with low cost the robustness of existing infrastructures but also for designing economically robust network systems.

  20. Renewable Energies and Enhanced Energy Efficiencies: Mitigation/Adaptation Measures to Climate Change Impacts on Cyprus and in the Eastern Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, Manfred

    2010-05-01

    The Eastern Mediterranean in general and Cyprus in particular are considered "hot spots" of future climate change. This will become manifest through an increase in the number and duration of drought events and extended hot-spells. The need to cope with the impacts of climate change will lead to enhanced requirements for cooling of private and public housing and growing demands for potable water derived from seawater desalination. This in turn will cause increasing pressures on electricity production and will result in additional strain on the energy sector in the region. For Cyprus, the current electricity production is entirely based on fossil-fuel fired power plants. However, the use of conventional energy sources is clearly an undesirable option. It enhances the economic burden on energy consumers and at the same time increases Cyprus' dependency on external providers of petroleum products. Moreover, it leads to growing emissions of carbon dioxide and thereby worsens Cyprus' already challenged greenhouse gas emission budget. While current emissions amount to about 9.9 Mill. t of CO2, the total allowance according to EU regulations lies at 5.5 Mill. t. The current building stock on Cyprus lacks basic measures for energy efficiency. This is particularly noteworthy with regard to insufficient insulation of buildings, which causes significant amounts of energy to be expanded for cooling. In light of these facts, an increased use of renewable energies and measures to enhance energy efficiencies in the built environment constitute important elements of a stringent and effective mitigation/adaptation strategy to climate change. The Eastern Mediterranean is among the most suitable location for the utilization of solar energy in Europe. A global direct normal irradiance of more than 1 800 kWh/m2 on Cyprus offers a renewable electricity potential of app. 20 to 23 TWh/yr when concentrated solar power (CSP) technology is employed. With regard to enhanced energy efficiency in buildings, new and innovative materials will have to be introduced. This includes advanced materials based on nanotechnology aimed to increase reflectivity and decrease heat absorption of external walls in order to reduce heat uptake by the building and thereby reduce cooling loads. This paper will give more detail on possible mitigation/adaptation strategies to climate change and will explore their possible synergistic potentials. While focusing on Cyprus, the conclusions will be readily applicable to neighboring countries in the Eastern Mediterranean.

  1. Customers and Markets: Both are Essential to Credit-Risk Measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David E. Allen

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares credit models that incorporate a market component to those that are solely customerbased. We found that customer-only models understated credit risk during the Global Financial Crisis (GFCand do not adequately differentiate between industries. Models that focus too heavily on the market canoverstate credit risk in times of high volatility. We recommend a two-factor modelling approach thatincorporates both customer and market risk to improve the accuracy of credit-risk measurement as well asassist lenders with early risk detection.

  2. Long term performance of radon mitigation systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Researchers installed radon mitigation systems in 12 houses in Spokane, Washington and Coeur d'Alene, Idaho during the heating season 1985--1986 and continued to monitor indoor radon quarterly and annually for ten years. The mitigation systems included active sub-slab ventilation, basement over-pressurization, and crawlspace isolation and ventilation. The occupants reported various operational problems with these early mitigation systems. The long-term radon measurements were essential to track the effectiveness of the mitigation systems over time. All 12 homes were visited during the second year of the study, while a second set 5 homes was visited during the fifth year to determine the cause(s) of increased radon in the homes. During these visits, the mitigation systems were inspected and measurements of system performance were made. Maintenance and modifications were performed to improve system performance in these homes

  3. Influence of safety measures on the risks of transporting dangerous goods through road tunnels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saccomanno, Frank; Haastrup, Palle

    2002-12-01

    Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models are used to estimate the risks of transporting dangerous goods and to assess the merits of introducing alternative risk reduction measures for different transportation scenarios and assumptions. A comprehensive QRA model recently was developed in Europe for application to road tunnels. This model can assess the merits of a limited number of "native safety measures." In this article, we introduce a procedure for extending its scope to include the treatment of a number of important "nonnative safety measures" of interest to tunnel operators and decisionmakers. Nonnative safety measures were not included in the original model specification. The suggested procedure makes use of expert judgment and Monte Carlo simulation methods to model uncertainty in the revised risk estimates. The results of a case study application are presented that involve the risks of transporting a given volume of flammable liquid through a 10-km road tunnel. PMID:12530779

  4. Performance Evaluation for Museum Enclosures. Measurement, Modelling and Mitigation of Pollutant Impact on Objects in Museum Enclosures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Terje Grøntoft

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Results of measurement and modelling of pollutant gases inside and outside 11 enclosures used to protect exhibited objects in 10 European museums are presented. Monthly average values for ozone, nitrogen dioxide, formic and acetic acid, temperature and relative humidity inside the enclosures, and yearly average values for the pollutants inside and outside the enclosures are presented for each enclosure. An available pollution impact model was adapted to the use with enclosures. Model calculations are presented for the expected change in concentrations of the oxidizing: ozone and nitrogen dioxide, and acidic: acetic and formic acid, pollutants depending on possible change in the ventilation rate of the enclosures and on inclusion of active carbon absorber to reduce the concentrations. The modelling results are presented as the ‘impact concentration’ of the pollutants by weighing the measured concentrations with their respective recommended levels. In several of the enclosures a clear correlation was observed between temperature and/or relative humidity and the concentration of acetic and formic acid. The modelling showed that all of the enclosures protected against air pollutants, but that only one of the 11 enclosures satisfied the recommended level. The recommended level could be reached for all the enclosures by reducing the ventilation or including active carbon absorber to cover the floor area.

  5. Effectiveness of mitigation measures in reducing future primary particulate matter emissions from on-road vehicle exhaust.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Fang; Bond, Tami C; Streets, David G

    2014-12-16

    This work evaluates the effectiveness of on-road primary particulate matter emission reductions that can be achieved by long-term vehicle scrappage and retrofit measures on regional and global levels. Scenario analysis shows that scrappage can provide significant emission reductions as soon as the measures begin, whereas retrofit provides greater emission reductions in later years, when more advanced technologies become available in most regions. Reductions are compared with a baseline that already accounts for implementation of clean vehicle standards. The greatest global emission reductions from a scrappage program occur 5 to 10 years after its introduction and can reach as much as 70%. The greatest reductions with retrofit occur around 2030 and range from 16-31%. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate how uncertainties in the composition of the vehicle fleet affect predicted reductions. Scrappage and retrofit reduce global emissions by 22-60% and 15-31%, respectively, within 95% confidence intervals, under a midrange scenario in the year 2030. The simulations provide guidance about which strategies are most effective for specific regions. Retrofit is preferable for high-income regions. For regions where early emission standards are in place, scrappage is suggested, followed by retrofit after more advanced emission standards are introduced. The early implementation of advanced emission standards is recommended for Western and Eastern Africa. PMID:25393452

  6. Seismic Risk Identification Based on the Expected Annualized Losses

    OpenAIRE

    Genoveva Perju; Gabriela-Maria Atanasiu

    2006-01-01

    A new method for the seismic risk identification is proposed based on the average measure of the expected annualized losses from earthquake occurrence. We show up how can be identified the risk for insurance decisional purposes. The analysis is useful for insured as well as for insurance company. When risk is considered from time dynamical perspective we emphasize the advantage of diversification for earthquake risk mitigation.

  7. Measuring the Value of Mortality Risk Reductions in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cem Teke?in

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The willingness to pay (WTP for mortality risk reduction from four causes (lung cancer, other type of cancer, respiratory disease, traffic accident are estimated using random parameter logit model with data from choice experiment for three regions in Turkey. The value of statistical life (VSL estimated for Afsin-Elbistan, Kutahya-Tavsanli, Ankara and the pooled case are found as 0.56, 0.35, 0.46 and 0.49 million Purchasing Power Parity (PPP adjusted 2012 US dollars (USD. Different types of risk cause different VSL estimates and we found the lung cancer premium of 213% against traffic accident. The effects of one-year-delayed provision of risk-reduction service are the reduction of WTP by 482 TL ($318 in PPP adjusted USD per person on average, and the disutility from status-quo (zero risk reduction against alternative is found to be 891 TL ($589 in PPP adjusted USD per person on average. Senior discounts of VSL are partially determined by status-quo preference and the amount of discount decreases once the status-quo bias is removed. The peak VSL is found to be for the age group 30–39 and the average VSL for the age group is 0.8 million PPP adjusted USD. Turkey’s compliance to European Union (EU air quality standard will cause welfare gains of total 373 million PPP adjusted USD for our study areas in terms of reduced number of premature mortality.

  8. Measuring the value of mortality risk reductions in Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teke?in, Cem; Ara, Shihomi

    2014-07-01

    The willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality risk reduction from four causes (lung cancer, other type of cancer, respiratory disease, traffic accident) are estimated using random parameter logit model with data from choice experiment for three regions in Turkey. The value of statistical life (VSL) estimated for Afsin-Elbistan, Kutahya-Tavsanli, Ankara and the pooled case are found as 0.56, 0.35, 0.46 and 0.49 million Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) adjusted 2012 US dollars (USD). Different types of risk cause different VSL estimates and we found the lung cancer premium of 213% against traffic accident. The effects of one-year-delayed provision of risk-reduction service are the reduction of WTP by 482 TL ($318 in PPP adjusted USD) per person on average, and the disutility from status-quo (zero risk reduction) against alternative is found to be 891 TL ($589 in PPP adjusted USD) per person on average. Senior discounts of VSL are partially determined by status-quo preference and the amount of discount decreases once the status-quo bias is removed. The peak VSL is found to be for the age group 30-39 and the average VSL for the age group is 0.8 million PPP adjusted USD). Turkey's compliance to European Union (EU) air quality standard will cause welfare gains of total 373 million PPP adjusted USD for our study areas in terms of reduced number of premature mortality. PMID:25000150

  9. Incorporating risk measures in closed-loop supply chain network design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soleimani, H.; Seyyed-Esfahani, M.

    2014-01-01

    This paper considers a location-allocation problem in a closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) with two extensions: first, demand and prices of new and return products are regarded as non-deterministic parameters and second, the objective function is developed from expected profit to three types of mean-risk ones. Indeed, design and planning an integrated CLSC in real-world volatile markets is an important and necessary issue. Further, risk-neutral approaches, which are considered expected values, are not efficient for such uncertain conditions. Hence, this paper, copes with the design and planning problem of a CLSC in a two-stage stochastic structure. Besides, risk criteria are considered through using three types of popular and well-behaved risk measures: mean absolute deviation, value at risk and conditional value at risk (CVaR). Consequently, three types of mean-risk models are developed as objective functions and decision-making procedures are undertaken based on the expected values and risk adversity criteria.Finally, performances of the developed mean-risk models are evaluated in various aspects. Results reveal that the inefficiencies of risk-neutral approaches can be overcome. In addition, in terms of quality of solutions, the acceptability of CVaR is proved when it is compared to other risk measures. © 2013 Taylor & Francis.

  10. A New Class of Time-Consistent Dynamic Risk Measures and its Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Gao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We construct a new time consistent dynamic convex cash-subadditive risk measure in this paper. Different from exist-ing measures, both potential loss and volatility of risky objects are considered. Based on a one-period measure that dis-torts financial values, punishes downside risk yet rewards upside potential, a dynamic time consistent version is con-structed recursively through a modified translation property. We then establish a portfolio selection model and give its optimal condition.

  11. A New Class of Time-Consistent Dynamic Risk Measures and its Application

    OpenAIRE

    Rui Gao; Zhiping Chen

    2013-01-01

    We construct a new time consistent dynamic convex cash-subadditive risk measure in this paper. Different from exist-ing measures, both potential loss and volatility of risky objects are considered. Based on a one-period measure that dis-torts financial values, punishes downside risk yet rewards upside potential, a dynamic time consistent version is con-structed recursively through a modified translation property. We then establish a portfolio selection model and give its optimal condition.

  12. Validation of an Existing Measure of Eating Disorder Risk for Use with Early Adolescents

    OpenAIRE

    Pearson, Carolyn M.; Guller, Leila; Mcpherson, Laura; Lejuez, Carl W.; Smith, Gregory T.

    2013-01-01

    This study tested a brief eating disorder risk measure, originally developed for use with college students, in young adolescents. The measure is called the COEDS (College Eating Disorders Screen) and is constructed of items written in everyday language used by youth to discuss weight issues, rather than in the language of symptom assessment. A sample of 246 early adolescents (mean age, 13) completed questionnaire measures of puberty, eating disorder behavior, and eating disorder risk two time...

  13. Assuring containment in reactor accidents: recent advances concerning the mitigation of the hydrogen risk; Fonction confinement en situation accidentelle: apports de la R et D dans la prise en compte et la maitrise du risque hydrogene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chaumont, B.; Pailhories, P. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), 92 - Clamart (France); Goetter, J.J.; Duplat, F.; Barbaud, J.; Guieu, S. [Electricite de France (EDF), 75 - Paris (France); Azarian, G. [FRAMATOME ANP, 92 - Paris-La-Defence (France)

    2004-07-01

    This article presents the different programs led in laboratories concerning the mitigation of the hydrogen risk in nuclear power plants. 3 aspects are considered: the generation of hydrogen during a reactor major accident, the distribution of this gas inside the reactor containment building and the different combustion modes of hydrogen. Studies show that it is difficult to prevent at any time and place the formation of a combustible mixture despite the presence of hydrogen recombiners. Studies have led to the setting of criteria concerning flame acceleration and detonation-explosion transitions, it has been shown that a mixture whose expansion parameter stays below a limit value can not lead to a flame acceleration over 400 m/s. (A.C.)

  14. Percepção e medidas de gestão de riscos por produtores de arroz irrigado na Fronteira Oeste do Rio Grande do Sul / Risk perception and risk management measures by irrigated rice growers in Fronteira Oeste, Rio Grande do Sul

    Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

    Maria Isabel Fernandes, Finger; Paulo Dabdab, Waquil.

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available A produção agrícola apresenta características particulares, se comparada a outras atividades econômicas, sendo uma das mais marcantes a extensão dos riscos aos quais está exposta. O cultivo de arroz (Oryza sativa L.) irrigado, embora pareça menos suscetível do que as culturas de sequeiro, também est [...] á exposto a riscos. Maior produtor mundial de arroz fora da Ásia, o Brasil tem no Rio Grande do Sul seu principal estado produtor. O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar como o orizicultor da Fronteira Oeste do Rio Grande do Sul percebe os riscos da sua atividade e quais medidas adota para geri-los. A metodologia empregada envolveu aplicação presencial de questionários a orizicultores, de acordo com uma amostra não probabilística. Os resultados indicaram que os orizicultores atribuem maior relevância aos riscos socioeconômicos do que aos de produção. Evidencia-se, assim, a importância da gestão do negócio pelos orizicultores, para que sua atividade esteja integrada com os demais elos da cadeia produtiva. A redução de custos pode ser uma alternativa para mitigação de riscos de mercado, apontados como os mais relevantes pelos orizicultores. A percepção dos orizicultores sobre riscos e sobre medidas para mitigá-los pode representar a base na formulação de estratégias de gestão de riscos. Abstract in english Agricultural production has many different influencing factors compared to other economic activities. One of the most striking is the extent of the risks to which it is exposed. Irrigated rice (Oryza sativa L.) cultivation, although seeming less susceptible than non-irrigated crops, is also exposed [...] to risks. World's largest producer of rice outside Asia, Brazil has the state of Rio Grande do Sul as its main producer. The aim of this study was to analyze how rice farmers in Fronteira Oeste, Rio Grande do Sul realize the risks of their activity and how they manage them. Methodology involved the administration of a questionnaire, according to a non-probabilistic sample. The results indicated that rice farmers attach greater relevance to economic and social risks rather than to production related ones. Thus, one realizes the importance of business management, in order to integrate their activity with others links of the production chain. Costs reduction may be an option to mitigate market risks, identified as the most relevant by the rice growers. Rice growers´ perception on risk and on measures to mitigate it may represent the foundation for formulating risk management strategies.

  15. Measuring Property Management Risk and Loss: Step One Toward Managing Property on a Foundation of Risk, Cost, and Benefit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, Curtis

    1999-05-17

    This is a period of ever-tightening defense budgets and continuing pressure on the public sector to be more commercial-like, Property policies, practices, and regulations are increasingly being challenged and changed. In these times, we must be leaders in understanding and defining the value of our profession from a commercial standpoint so that we can provide the right services to our customers and explain and defend the value of those services. To do so, we must step outside current property management practices, regulations, and oversight. We must learn to think and speak in the language of those who fund us--a financial language of risk, cost, and benefit. Regardless of regulation and oversight, our bosses are demanding that we demonstrate (financially) the benefits of current practice, or else. This article is intended to be the beginning of an effort to understand and define our profession in terms of risk, cost, and benefit so that we can meet these new challenges. The first step in this effort must be defining and measuring risk, cost, and benefit. Our costs, although sometimes difficult to capture, are easy to understand: they are almost exclusively the effort, both within and without the property management organization, involved in managing property. Unfortunately, property risks and benefits are not so simple or so well understood. Generally, risks and benefits are identified and measured through physical inventory results: potential and actual shortages. This paper will explore the weaknesses in the current understanding and use of shortage information as the yardstick for property management risks and performance. It will define a new framework for understanding the purpose and value of property management. And finally, it will set a course for a new method of measuring and valuing physical inventoty shortages. This new method will yield accurate and useful measures of property management risk and benefit. Once risk and benefit are accurately understood and measured, it will be possible to evaluate, adjust, and explain property management practices and regulations from a commercial, financial perspective; it will be possible for us to be the leaders in redefining the purpose and value of the property management profession for today's environment.

  16. Modelling nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes from land to the UK river network - Scenario Analysis and possible mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinjili, Shailaja; Hiscock, Kevin; Lovett, Andrew

    2014-05-01

    Nutrient export models, based on land use and land management data, support the analysis of the cause and effect of land use changes and aid in identifying significant nutrient sources. Although various simple approaches such as export coefficient modelling have been used for national scale and regional-scale studies, many of them lack inclusion of process-based elements to the model. In this study, we present a model that describes the river nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) load as a function of nutrient sources, runoff, nutrient retention and hydrogeology. The model was calibrated using measured water quality data on N and P at catchment outlets and was applied to a 2-km resolution dataset established for England, Wales & Scotland. A 2-km resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was developed using the grid and a flow accumulation algorithm in ESRI's ArcGIS. We combine nutrient loads from each 2-km cell with the flow accumulation model to identify the spatial distribution of critical nutrient sources to river water. Subsequently, the model was used to analyse different land management and climate change scenarios. The results of this study and scenario analysis seek to identify potential nutrient sensitive areas and support land use planning and policy decisions.

  17. Development of catalysts for mitigation of hydrogen in water cooled nuclear power reactors. Pt.1. Preparation, characterization, and activity measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Catalysts have been developed in the laboratory for the rapid reaction of the hydrogen and oxygen that may release in containments of nuclear power reactors under the postulated severe accident conditions. These catalysts are comprised of Pt and/or Pd noble metals dispersed finely on strips of corrosion resistant stainless steel wire gauze, and have been found to be very active for hydrogen-oxygen reaction under the ambient conditions of temperature, pressure and moisture, in both the bench and pilot plant scale measurements. The microscopic examination showed that the wire gauze-based samples were superior in terms of dispersion and binding of the deposited noble metal compared to those prepared with a metal plate as a support. The exothermicity of the H2+O2 reaction resulted in a rise in catalyst temperature and hence in its self-sustained catalytic activity. The paper presents the data on activity and temperature rise of catalyst samples as a function of metal loading. (orig.)

  18. Analysis on Financial Risks of Derivation and Preventive Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Pan

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Financial derivatives, as innovative financial instrument, have been designed for enterprises to avoid financial risks. Most of these derivatives rely on future trends of traditional tools, such as valuation, interest rates and exchange rates. Such expected future transactions or events can not be recognized as assets because they do not meet the definition of assets, economic resources owned or controlled by enterprises and only made by past transactions. The use of the traditional accounting model does not accurately disclose this kind of "off-balance-sheet items," and their impact on financial statements. This paper provides some methods for enterprises and government to appropriately recognize and reveal the risks and benefits of financial derivatives.

  19. Credit risk measures: a case of renewable energy companies

    OpenAIRE

    Silva, Eduardo Sa? E.; Pereira, Adalmiro Andrade

    2014-01-01

    The Basel III will have a significant impact on the European banking sector. In September 2010, supervisors of various countries adopted the new rules proposed by the prudential Committee on Banking Supervision to be applied to the business of credit institutions (hereinafter called ICs) in a phased manner from 2013, assuming to its full implementation by 2019. The purpose of this new regulation is to limit the excessive risk that these institutions took on the period preceding the global fin...

  20. Liquidity risk and its measurement: modelling, analysis and computation

    OpenAIRE

    Capper, Yukun

    2010-01-01

    The recent turbulence in financial markets, of which a famous casualty is the collapse of the Long Term Capital Management hedge fund, has made market liquidity an issue of high concern to investors and risk managers. The latter group in particular realised that financial models, based on the assumption of perfectly liquid markets where investors can trade large amounts of assets without affecting their prices, may fail miserably under the circumstance where market liquidity va...

  1. A CONFIRMATORY APPROACH TO MEASURING RISKS IN SUPPLY CHAINS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constangioara Alexandru

    2014-07-01

    Our proposed research methodology reveals the advantages of a confirmatory factor analysis over an exploratory principal component analysis in the context of risks management in supply chains. Moreover, as Sodhi and Tang (2012 reveals, more than half of papers in existing SCRM literature are either conceptual or qualitative empirical (case studies. Our proposed quantitative methodology contributes to reducing the above mentioned gap, providing results that can be used for statistical inferences and for enhancing the efficiency of the managerial decisional process.

  2. Operational Risk Measurement of Chinese Commercial Banks Based on Extreme Value Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Jiashan; Li, Yong; Ji, Feng; Peng, Cheng

    The financial institutions and supervision institutions have all agreed on strengthening the measurement and management of operational risks. This paper attempts to build a model on the loss of operational risks basing on Peak Over Threshold model, emphasizing on weighted least square, which improved Hill’s estimation method, while discussing the situation of small sample, and fix the sample threshold more objectively basing on the media-published data of primary banks loss on operational risk from 1994 to 2007.

  3. Assessment of Breast Cancer Risk Based on Mammary Gland Volume Measured with CT

    OpenAIRE

    Takaaki Hosoya; Akira Fukao; Megumi Kuchiki

    2010-01-01

    We investigated the relationship between mammary gland volume (MGV) of the breast as measured with three-dimensional chest computed tomography (CT) and breast cancer risk. Univariate analysis was used to assess the relationship between MGV and known risk factors in 427 healthy women. A case control study (97 cases and 194 controls) was conducted to assess breast cancer risk. MGV was significantly smaller for postmenopausal women than for premenopausal women, and was significantly larger for w...

  4. Market Risk Measurement: Key Rate Duration as an asset allocation instrument

    OpenAIRE

    Zeballos, David

    2011-01-01

    Currently, the financial institutions are exposed to different types of risks, including the market, credit and operational risks; therefore, there has increased the need for new financial and analytical instruments for the risk management. Among the traditional ones we have the duration, which measures the bond price sensitivity to changes of interest rates. Nevertheless, it has two disadvantages: it assumes parallel changes in the yield curve and it is inaccurate if we consider large pe...

  5. Assessment of pesticides risk for bees: methods for PNEC measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kievits, Janine

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: An individual honeybee shows a complex behavioral structure. Each bee takes part in the collective behavioral set up that ensures bee colony survival and development. Contaminants are likely to have effects on individual bees’ behavior with consequences at the level of the whole colony. They also are likely to alter bees’ physiology, including lifespan, fertility or fecundity, leading to colony weakness or colony collapse. Results: Peer-reviewed scientific literature provides a wide range of methods used for testing honeybees’ behavioral or physiological parameters. Apart from alterations that may appear during the conduction of acute or chronic toxicity tests, specific tests could be conducted to complement the risk assessment in order to evaluate the impact of sublethal doses of contaminants on bees. Such tests can be developed both in laboratory conditions or as part of the semi-field and field tests that are currently required as higher tier tests of risk assessment schemes.Conclusion: The purpose of this work is to review some of these methods and discuss their relevance in the evaluation of pesticide active substances and/or products in view to propose their future inclusion in pesticides risk assessment to bees.

  6. Macro-mechanical modeling of blast-wave mitigation in foams. Part II: reliability of pressure measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Britan, A.; Liverts, M.; Shapiro, H.; Ben-Dor, G.

    2013-02-01

    A phenomenological study of the process occurring when a plane shock wave reflected off an aqueous foam column filling the test section of a vertical shock tube has been undertaken. The experiments were conducted with initial shock wave Mach numbers in the range 1.25le {M}_s le 1.7 and foam column heights in the range 100-450 mm. Miniature piezotrone circuit electronic pressure transducers were used to record the pressure histories upstream and alongside the foam column. The aim of these experiments was to find a simple way to eliminate a spatial averaging as an artifact of the pressure history recorded by the side-on transducer. For this purpose, we discuss first the common behaviors of the pressure traces in extended time scales. These observations evidently quantify the low frequency variations of the pressure field within the different flow domains of the shock tube. Thereafter, we focus on the fronts of the pressure signals, which, in turn, characterize the high-frequency response of the foam column to the shock wave impact. Since the front shape and the amplitude of the pressure signal most likely play a significant role in the foam destruction, phase changes and/or other physical factors, such as high capacity, viscosity, etc., the common practice of the data processing is revised and discussed in detail. Generally, side-on pressure measurements must be used with great caution when performed in wet aqueous foams, because the low sound speed is especially prone to this effect. Since the spatial averaged recorded pressure signals do not reproduce well the real behaviors of the pressure rise, the recorded shape of the shock wave front in the foam appears much thicker. It is also found that when a thin liquid film wet the sensing membrane, the transducer sensitivity was changed. As a result, the pressure recorded in the foam could exceed the real amplitude of the post-shock wave flow. A simple procedure, which allows correcting this imperfection, is discussed in detail.

  7. Risk-based assessment of the surety of information systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jansma, R.; Fletcher, S.; Halbgewachs, R.; Lim, J.; Murphy, M.; Sands, P.; Wyss, G.

    1995-03-01

    Correct operation of an information system requires a balance of ``surety`` domains -- access control (confidentiality), integrity, utility, availability, and safety. However, traditional approaches provide little help on how to systematically analyze and balance the combined impact of surety requirements on a system. The key to achieving information system surety is identifying, prioritizing, and mitigating the sources of risk that may lead to system failure. Consequently, the authors propose a risk assessment methodology that provides a framework to guide the analyst in identifying and prioritizing sources of risk and selecting mitigation techniques. The framework leads the analyst to develop a risk-based system model for balancing the surety requirements and quantifying the effectiveness and combined impact of the mitigation techniques. Such a model allows the information system designer to make informed trade-offs based on the most effective risk-reduction measures.

  8. Predicting (un)healthy behavior: A comparison of risk-taking propensity measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szrek, Helena; Chao, Li-Wei; Ramlagan, Shandir; Peltzer, Karl

    2012-11-01

    We compare four different risk-taking propensity measures on their ability to describe and to predict actual risky behavior in the domain of health. The risk-taking propensity measures we compare are: (1) a general measure of risk-taking propensity derived from a one-item survey question (Dohmen et al., 2011), (2) a risk aversion index calculated from a set of incentivized monetary gambles (Holt & Laury, 2002), (3) a measure of risk taking derived from an incentive compatible behavioral task-the Balloon Analog Risk Task (Lejuez et al., 2002), and (4) a composite score of risk-taking likelihood in the health domain from the Domain-Specific Risk Taking (DOSPERT) scale (Weber et al., 2002). Study participants are 351 clients of health centers around Witbank, South Africa. Our findings suggest that the one-item general measure is the best predictor of risky health behavior in our population, predicting two out of four behaviors at the 5% level and the remaining two behaviors at the 10% level. The DOSPERT score in the health domain performs well, predicting one out of four behaviors at the 1% significance level and two out of four behaviors at the 10% level, but only if the DOSPERT instrument contains a hypothetical risk-taking item that is similar to the actual risky behavior being predicted. Incentivized monetary gambles and the behavioral task were unrelated to actual health behaviors; they were unable to predict any of the risky health behaviors at the 10% level. We provide evidence that this is not because the participants had trouble understanding the monetary trade-off questions or performed poorly in the behavioral task. We conclude by urging researchers to further test the usefulness of the one-item general measure, both in explaining health related risk-taking behavior and in other contexts. PMID:24307919

  9. Predicting (unhealthy behavior: A comparison of risk-taking propensity measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helena Szrek

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We compare four different risk-taking propensity measures on their ability to describe and to predict actual risky behavior in the domain of health. The risk-taking propensity measures we compare are: (1 a general measure of risk-taking propensity derived from a one-item survey question (Dohmen et al., 2011, (2 a risk aversion index calculated from a set of incentivized monetary gambles (Holt and Laury, 2002, (3 a measure of risk taking derived from an incentive compatible behavioral task---the Balloon Analog Risk Task (Lejuez et al., 2002, and (4 a composite score of risk-taking likelihood in the health domain from the Domain-Specific Risk Taking (DOSPERT scale (Weber et al., 2002. Study participants are 351 clients of health centers around Witbank, South Africa. Our findings suggest that the one-item general measure is the best predictor of risky health behavior in our population, predicting two out of four behaviors at the 5% level and the remaining two behaviors at the 10% level. The DOSPERT score in the health domain performs well, predicting one out of four behaviors at the 1% significance level and two out of four behaviors at the 10% level, but only if the DOSPERT instrument contains a hypothetical risk-taking item that is similar to the actual risky behavior being predicted. Incentivized monetary gambles and the behavioral task were unrelated to actual health behaviors; they were unable to predict any of the risky health behaviors at the 10% level. We provide evidence that this is not because the participants had trouble understanding the monetary trade-off questions or performed poorly in the behavioral task. We conclude by urging researchers to further test the usefulness of the one-item general measure, both in explaining health related risk-taking behavior and in other contexts.

  10. DIRECT MUTAGEN RISK ASSESSMENT: THE DEVELOPMENT OF METHODS TO MEASURE IMMUNOLOGIC AND GENETIC RESPONSES TO MUTAGENS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The review puts forward the concept of Direct Mutagen Risk Assessment through a discussion of the development of methods with which to measure immunologic and genetic responses to mutagens. Mutagenicity risk assessment, in this context, is the study of human somatic cell mutation...

  11. Study on the Avoidance Measures of the Audit Risk of Project Item

    OpenAIRE

    Mian Xing

    2010-01-01

    The connotations and characteristics of the project item audit risk are studied in this article, and the measures to avoid the audit risk of project item are concretely analyzed by further strengthening the management, and the research result could offer theoretical bases for enhancing the audit management of project item.

  12. IPCC Climate Change 2013: Mitigation of Climate Change - Key Findings and Lessons Learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokona, Youba

    2014-05-01

    The Working Group III contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Mitigation of Climate Change, examines the results of scientific research about mitigation, with special attention on how knowledge has evolved since the Fourth Assessment Report published in 2007. Throughout, the focus is on the implications of its findings for policy, without being prescriptive about the particular policies that governments and other important participants in the policy process should adopt. The report begins with a framing of important concepts and methods that help to contextualize the findings presented throughout the assessment. The valuation of risks and uncertainties, ethical concepts and the context of sustainable development and equity are among the guiding principles for the assessment of mitigation strategies. The report highlights past trends in stocks and flows of greenhouse gases and the factors that drive emissions at global, regional, and sectoral scales including economic growth, technology or population changes. It provides analyses of the technological, economic and institutional requirements of long-term mitigation scenarios and details on mitigation measures and policies that are applied in different economic sectors and human settlements. It then discusses interactions of mitigation policies and different policy instrument types at national, regional and global governance levels and between economic sectors, The Working Group III report comprises 16 chapters and in assembling this assessment authors were guided by the principles of the IPCC mandate: to be explicit about mitigation options, to be explicit about their costs and about their risks and opportunities vis-à-vis other development priorities, and to be explicit about the underlying criteria, concepts, and methods for evaluating alternative policies.

  13. Farm nitrogen balances in six European agricultural landscapes – a method for farming system assessment, emission hotspot identification, and mitigation measure evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Tommy; Bienkowski, J.

    2012-01-01

    Six agricultural landscapes in Poland (PL), the Netherlands (NL), France (FR), Italy (IT), Scotland (UK) and Denmark (DK) were studied, and a common method was developed for undertaking farm inventories and the derivation of farm nitrogen (N) balances and N surplus from the in total 222 farms and 11 440 ha of farmland. In all landscapes, a large variation in the farm N surplus was found, and thereby a large potential for reductions. The highest average N surpluses were found in the most livestock-intensive landscapes of IT, FR, and NL; on average 202 ± 28, 179 ± 63 and 178 ± 20 kg N ha?1yr?1, respectively. However, all landscapes showed hotspots, especially from livestock farms, including a special UK case with landless large-scale poultry farming. So, whereas the average N surplus from the land-based UK farms dominated by extensive sheep grazing was only 31 ± 10 kg N ha?1yr?1, the landscape average was similar to those of PL and DK (122 ± 20 and 146 ± 55 kg N ha?1yr?1, re