WorldWideScience
1

Risk Mitigation Measures: An Important Aspect of the Environmental Risk Assessment of Pharmaceuticals  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Within EU marketing authorization procedures of human and veterinary medicinal products (HMP and VMP, an environmental risk assessment (ERA has to be performed. In the event that an unacceptable environmental risk is identified, risk mitigation measures (RMM shall be applied in order to reduce environmental exposure to the pharmaceutical. Within the authorization procedures of HMP, no RMM have been applied so far, except for specific precautions for the disposal of the unused medicinal product or waste materials. For VMP, a limited number of RMM do exist. The aim of this study was to develop consistent and efficient RMM. Therefore, existing RMM were compiled from a summary of product characteristics of authorized pharmaceuticals, and new RMM were developed and evaluated. Based on the results, appropriate RMM were applied within the authorization procedures of medicinal products. For HMP, except for the existing precautions for disposal, no further reasonable measures could be developed. For VMP, two specific precautions for disposal and 17 specific precautions for use in animals were proposed as RMM.

Markus Liebig

2014-01-01

2

Risk mitigation measures for seed treatments using neonicotinoids  

OpenAIRE

Background: In 2008 the poisoning of about 12000 bee colonies was reported in Germany. These poisonings were caused by the drift of dust particles containing the insecticidal substance clothianidin following the seeding of maize, treated with the insecticide Poncho Pro. Dust abrasion from coated seeds occurred because of inadequate seed dressing quality, resulting in high quantities of dust emitted into the environment. In order to cover this specific risk, Regulation (EC) No. 1107/2009 provi...

Forster, Rolf

2012-01-01

3

Sensitivity measures for optimal mitigation of risk and reduction of model uncertainty  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper presents a new set of reliability sensitivity measures. The purpose is to identify the optimal manner in which to mitigate risk to civil infrastructure, and reduce model uncertainty in order to improve risk estimates. Three measures are presented. One identifies the infrastructure components that should be prioritized for retrofit. Another measure identifies the infrastructure that should be prioritized for more refined modeling. The third measure identifies the models that should be prioritized in research to improve models, for example by gathering new data. The developments are presented in the context of a region with 622 buildings that are subjected to seismicity from several sources. A comprehensive seismic risk analysis of this region is conducted, with over 300 random variables, 30 model types, and 4000 model instances. All models are probabilistic and emphasis is placed on the explicit characterization of epistemic uncertainty. For the considered region, the buildings that should first be retrofitted are found to be pre-code unreinforced masonry buildings. Conversely, concrete shear wall buildings rank highest on the list of buildings that should be subjected to more detailed modeling. The ground shaking intensity model for shallow crustal earthquakes and the concrete shear wall structural response model rank highest on the list of models that should be prioritized by research to improve engineering analysis models. -- Highlights: • Three new sensitivity measures are presented to guide the allocation of resources. • The first measure prioritizes infrastructure for retrofit in order to mitigate risk. • The second measure prioritizes probabilistic models for more detailed modeling. • The third measure prioritizes model types for improvement by data gathering. • The measures are showcased by a regional seismic risk analysis of 622 buildings

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QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS: DETERMINING UNIVERSITY RISK MITIGATION AND CONTROL MECHANISMS  

OpenAIRE

The paper seeks to examine adequacy of risk mitigation mechanisms by using methodologies derived from quantitative risk analysis in a University context. A questionnaire and an interview schedule were administered. The researchers used ‘risk modal’ responses model for the evaluation of the adequacy of risk mitigation. Furthermore, the researchers incorporated expert judgements, binomial distribution model and one way-repeated measure ANOVA into the risk mitigation analysis. The first cate...

Bayaga, Anass; Mtose, Xoliswa

2010-01-01

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CFD evaluation of hydrogen risk mitigation measures in a VVER-440/213 containment  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

In the PHARE project 'Hydrogen Management for the VVER440/213' (HU2002/000-632-04-01), CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) calculations using GASFLOW, FLUENT and CFX were performed for the Paks NPP (Nuclear Power Plant), modelling a defined severe accident scenario which involves the release of hydrogen. The purpose of this work is to demonstrate that CFD codes can be used to model gas movement inside a containment during a severe accident. With growing experience in performing such analyses, the results encourage the use of CFD in assessing the risk of losing containment integrity as a result of hydrogen deflagrations. As an effective mitigation measure in such a situation, the implementation of catalytic recombiners is planned in the Paks NPP. In order to support these plans both unmitigated and recombiner-mitigated simulations were performed. These are described and selected results are compared. The codes CFX and FLUENT needed refinement to their models of wall and bulk steam condensation in order to be able to fully simulate the severe accident under consideration. Several CFD codes were used in parallel to model the same accident scenario in order to reduce uncertainties in the results. Previously it was considered impractical to use CFD codes to simulate a full containment subject to a severe accident extending over many hours. This was because of the expected prohibitive computing times and missing physical capabilities of the codes. This work demonstrates that, because of developments in the capabilities of CFD codes and improvements in computer power, these calculations have now become feasible.

Heitsch, Matthias, E-mail: Matthias.Heitsch@ec.europa.e [Institute for Energy, Joint Research Centre, PO Box 2, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Huhtanen, Risto [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, PO Box 1000, FI-02044 VTT (Finland); Techy, Zsolt [VEIKI Institute for Electric Power Research Co., PO Box 80, H-1251 Budapest (Hungary); Fry, Chris [Serco, Winfrith Technology Centre, Dorchester, Dorset DT2 8DH (United Kingdom); Kostka, Pal [VEIKI Institute for Electric Power Research Co., PO Box 80, H-1251 Budapest (Hungary); Niemi, Jarto [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, PO Box 1000, FI-02044 VTT (Finland); Schramm, Berthold [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit, GRS mbH, Schwertnergasse 1, 50667 Koeln (Germany)

2010-02-15

6

CFD evaluation of hydrogen risk mitigation measures in a VVER-440/213 containment  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In the PHARE project 'Hydrogen Management for the VVER440/213' (HU2002/000-632-04-01), CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) calculations using GASFLOW, FLUENT and CFX were performed for the Paks NPP (Nuclear Power Plant), modelling a defined severe accident scenario which involves the release of hydrogen. The purpose of this work is to demonstrate that CFD codes can be used to model gas movement inside a containment during a severe accident. With growing experience in performing such analyses, the results encourage the use of CFD in assessing the risk of losing containment integrity as a result of hydrogen deflagrations. As an effective mitigation measure in such a situation, the implementation of catalytic recombiners is planned in the Paks NPP. In order to support these plans both unmitigated and recombiner-mitigated simulations were performed. These are described and selected results are compared. The codes CFX and FLUENT needed refinement to their models of wall and bulk steam condensation in order to be able to fully simulate the severe accident under consideration. Several CFD codes were used in parallel to model the same accident scenario in order to reduce uncertainties in the results. Previously it was considered impractical to use CFD codes to simulate a full containment subject to a severe accident extending over many hours. This was because of the expected prohibitive computing times and missing physical capabilities of the codes. This work demonstrates that of the codes. This work demonstrates that, because of developments in the capabilities of CFD codes and improvements in computer power, these calculations have now become feasible.

7

A methodological frame for assessing benzene induced leukemia risk mitigation due to policy measures.  

Science.gov (United States)

The study relies on the development of a methodology for assessing the determinants that comprise the overall leukemia risk due to benzene exposure and how these are affected by outdoor and indoor air quality regulation. An integrated modeling environment was constructed comprising traffic emissions, dispersion models, human exposure models and a coupled internal dose/biology-based dose-response risk assessment model, in order to assess the benzene imposed leukemia risk, as much as the impact of traffic fleet renewal and smoking banning to these levels. Regarding traffic fleet renewal, several "what if" scenarios were tested. The detailed full-chain methodology was applied in a South-Eastern European urban setting in Greece and a limited version of the methodology in Helsinki. Non-smoking population runs an average risk equal to 4.1·10(-5) compared to 23.4·10(-5) for smokers. The estimated lifetime risk for the examined occupational groups was higher than the one estimated for the general public by 10-20%. Active smoking constitutes a dominant parameter for benzene-attributable leukemia risk, much stronger than any related activity, occupational or not. From the assessment of mitigation policies it was found that the associated leukemia risk in the optimum traffic fleet scenario could be reduced by up to 85% for non-smokers and up to 8% for smokers. On the contrary, smoking banning provided smaller gains for (7% for non-smokers, 1% for smokers), while for Helsinki, smoking policies were found to be more efficient than traffic fleet renewal. The methodology proposed above provides a general framework for assessing aggregated exposure and the consequent leukemia risk from benzene (incorporating mechanistic data), capturing exposure and internal dosimetry dynamics, translating changes in exposure determinants to actual changes in population risk, providing a valuable tool for risk management evaluation and consequently to policy support. PMID:23220388

Karakitsios, Spyros P; Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis ?; Gotti, Alberto; Kassomenos, Pavlos A; Pilidis, Georgios A

2013-01-15

8

Landslides risk mitigation along lifelines  

Science.gov (United States)

The paper describes an integrated, innovative and efficient solution to manage risk issues associated to landslides interfering with infrastructures. The research project was submitted for financial support in the framework of the Multi -regional Operational Programme 2007-13: Research and Competitiveness funded by the Ministry of Research (MIUR) and co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund. The project is aimed to developing and demonstrating an integrated system of monitoring, early warning and mitigation of landslides risk. The final goal is to timely identify potentially dangerous landslides, and to activate all needed impact mitigation measures, including the information delivery. The essential components of the system include monitoring arrays, telecommunication networks and scenario simulation models, assisted by a data acquisition and processing centre, and a traffic control centres. Upon integration, the system will be experimentally validated and demonstrated over ca. 200 km of three highway sections, crossing the regions of Campania, Basilicata, Calabria and Sicily. Progress in the state of art is represented by the developments in the field of environmental monitoring and in the mathematical modeling of landslides and by the development of services for traffic management. The approach to the problem corresponds to a "systemic logics" where each developed component foresees different interchangeable technological solutions to maximize the operational flexibility. The final system may be configured as a simple to complex structure, including different configurations to deal with different scenarios. Specifically, six different monitoring systems will be realized: three "point" systems, made up of a network of locally measuring sensors, and three "area" systems to remotely measure the displacements of large areas. Each network will be fully integrated and connected to a unique data transmission system. Standardized and shared procedures for the identification of risk scenarios will be developed, concerning the surveys to be carried out, the procedures for each type of on-site testing and guidelines and dynamic templates for presentations of results, such as highway risk maps e.g. The setting up of data acquisition and processing centre and traffic control centre are the core of the integrated system. The DAC (data acquisition center, newly designed) will acquire and process data varying in intensity, dimensions, characteristics and information content. The Traffic Control Center (TCC) is meant to integrate the scientific and the management aspects of hydrological risk monitoring and early warning. The overall system is expected to benefit of the development of new, advanced mathematical models on landslide triggers and propagation. Triggering models will be empirical or hydrological, represented by simple empirical relationships, obtained by linking the antecedent rainfall and the landslide time occurrence, and complete models identified through more complex expressions that take into account different components as the specific site conditions, the mechanical, hydraulic and physical properties of soils and slopes, the local seepage conditions and their contribution to soil strength. The industrial partners of the University of Calabria are Autostrade Tech, Strago and TD Group, with the Universities of Firenze and Catania acting research Partners.

Capparelli, G.; Versace, P.; Artese, G.; Costanzo, S.; Corsonello, P.; Di Massa, G.; Mendicino, G.; Maletta, D.; Leone, S.; Muto, F.; Senatore, A.; Troncone, A.; Conte, E.; Galletta, D.

2012-04-01

9

Model-Based Mitigation of Availability Risks  

OpenAIRE

The assessment and mitigation of risks related to the availability of the IT infrastructure is becoming increasingly important in modern organizations. Unfortunately, present standards for Risk Assessment and Mitigation show limitations when evaluating and mitigating availability risks. This is due to the fact that they do not fully consider the dependencies between the constituents of an IT infrastructure that are paramount in large enterprises. These dependencies make the technical problem ...

Zambon, Emmanuele; Bolzoni, Damiano; Etalle, Sandro; Salvato, Marco

2007-01-01

10

Urban Policies and Earthquake Risk Mitigation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The paper aims at proposing some considerations about some recent experiences of research carried out on the theme of earthquake risk mitigation and combining policies and actions of mitigation with urban development strategies. The objective was to go beyond the classical methodological approach aiming at defining a 'technical' evaluation of the earthquake risk through a procedure which can correlate the three 'components' of danger, exposure and vulnerability. These researches experiment, in terms of methodology and application, with a new category of interpretation and strategy: the so-called Struttura Urbana Minima (Minimum urban structure).Actually, the introduction of the Struttura Urbana Minima establishes a different approach towards the theme of safety in the field of earthquake risk, since it leads to a wider viewpoint, combining the building aspect of the issue with the purely urban one, involving not only town planning, but also social and managerial implications.In this sense the constituent logic of these researches is strengthened by two fundamental issues:- The social awareness of earthquake;- The inclusion of mitigation policies in the ordinary strategies for town and territory management. Three main aspects of the first point, that is of the 'social awareness of earthquake', characterize this issue and demand to be considered within a prevention policy:- The central role of the risk as a social production,- The central role of the local community conhe central role of the local community consent,- The central role of the local community capability to planTherefore, consent, considered not only as acceptance, but above all as participation in the elaboration and implementation of choices, plays a crucial role in the wider issue of prevention policies.As far as the second point is concerned, the inclusion of preventive mitigation policies in ordinary strategies for the town and territory management demands the identification of criteria of choice and priorities of intervention and, as a consequence, the opportunity to promote an approach to the theme of mitigation policies realized through strategic principles and systemic logics able to shift the problem from the building to the town. The critical aspects of this theme are tied to three main issues:- The sharing of the way of interpreting town planning,- The integration of multiple objectives in one intervention tool,- The measures which can be adopted for an effective prevention policy.The above-mentioned elements have inspired these researches experimented on Calabrian towns.In particular, in this paper the experience carried out on Reggio Calabria is proposed. Its cultural roots derive from the principles and criteria experimented in small Calabrian towns, but it modifies them according to the complexity of the urban settlement, introducing also some experimental concepts and methodological approaches

11

Hurricane risk mitigation - High Pressure Gas Facility  

Science.gov (United States)

A worker pours concrete as part of a nitrogen risk mitigation project at the High Pressure Gas Facility at Stennis Space Center. The concrete slab will provide the foundation needed to place new pumps at the site and is part of ongoing hurricane-related mitigation work at Stennis.

2008-01-01

12

Information security risk assessment, aggregation, and mitigation  

OpenAIRE

As part of their compliance process with the Basel 2 operational risk management requirements, banks must define how they deal with information security risk management. In this paper we describe work in progress on a new quantitative model to assess and aggregate information security risks that is currently under development for deployment. We show how to find a risk mitigation strategy that is optimal with respect to the model used and the available budget.

Voss, T.; Lenstra, Arjen K.

2004-01-01

13

Coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures of hydro-meteorological risks: the importance of establishing a link between emergency management and spatial planning  

Science.gov (United States)

The management of natural hazards involves, as generally known, the four stages of the risk management cycle: Prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. Accordingly, the mitigation of disasters can be performed in terms of short-term and long-term purposes. Whereas emergency management or civil protection helps to strengthen a community's capacity to be better prepared for natural hazards and to better respond in case a disaster strikes, thus addressing the short-term perspective, spatial planning serves long-term planning goals and can therefore implement long-term prevention measures. A purposefully applied risk mitigation strategy requires coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures and thus an effective coordination of emergency management and spatial planning. Several actors are involved in risk management and should consequently be linked throughout the whole risk management cycle. However, these actors, partly because of a historically fragmented administrative system, are hardly connected to each other, with spatial planning only having a negligible role compared to other actors1, a problem to which Young (2002) referred to as the "problem of interplay". In contrast, information transfer and decision-taking happen at the same time and are not coordinated among different actors. This applies to the prevention and preparedness phase as well as to the recovery phase, which basically constitutes the prevention phase for the next disaster2. Since investments in both risk prevention and emergency preparedness and response are considered necessary, a better coordination of the two approaches is required. In this regard, Decision Support Systems (DSS) can be useful in order to provide support in the decision-making aspect of risk management. The research work currently undertaken examines the problem of interplay in the four case study areas of the Marie Curie ITN, CHANGES3. The link between different risk management actors will be explored by means of exploratory questionnaires and interviews with government agencies, local administrations, community and research organizations on each study site. First results provided will address the general role of spatial planning in risk management. Additionally, preliminary observations are made in regard to the coordination of emergency preparedness and long-term spatial planning activities. The observations consider that integration facilitates proactive strategies that aim at preventing disaster occurrence and promote interaction between involved parties. Finally, consideration is given to the potential use of a DSS tool to cover both aspects of spatial planning and emergency management in the risk management cycle.

Prenger-Berninghoff, Kathrin; Cortes, V. Juliette; Aye, Zar Chi; Sprague, Teresa

2013-04-01

14

Space debris mitigation measures in India  

Science.gov (United States)

The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) recognizes the importance of the current space debris scenario, and the impact it has on the effective utilization of space technology for the improvement in the quality of life on the Earth. ISRO is committed to effective management of the threats due to space debris. Towards this commitment ISRO works on different aspects of space debris, including the debris mitigation measures. This paper highlights the activities and achievements in the implementation of the mitigation measures. ISRO successfully designed and developed a propellant venting system for implementation in the existing upper stage of India's Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV), which uses Earth-storable liquid propellants. GSLV also employs passivation of the Cryogenic Upper Stage at the end of its useful mission. ISRO's communication satellites in GSO are designed with adequate propellant margins for re-orbiting at the end of their useful life to a higher graveyard orbit. A typical successful operation in connection with INSAT-2C is described. ISRO developed its debris environmental models and software to predict the close approach of any of the debris to the functional satellites. The software are regularly used for the debris risk management of the orbiting spacecraft and launch vehicles. ISRO recognizes the role of international cooperation in the debris mitigation measures and actively contributes to the efforts of the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) and United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UNCOPUOS).

Adimurthy, V.; Ganeshan, A. S.

2006-02-01

15

Mitigation of foreign Direct investment risk and hedging  

OpenAIRE

Instruments of risk mitigation play an important role in managing country risk within the foreign direct investment (FDI) decision. Our study assesses country risk by state-dependent preferences and introduces futures contracts as a tool of risk mitigation. We show that country risk assessments related to foreign direct investment do not matter if the multinational firm enters currency futures markets. Besides currency risk, multinationals cross-hedge country risk via the derivatives market. ...

Wahl, Jack E.; Broll, Udo

2009-01-01

16

Bioenergy as a Mitigation Measure  

Science.gov (United States)

Numerous studies have shown that bioenergy, being one of the renewable energies with the lowest costs, is expected to play an important role in the near future as climate change mitigation measure. Current practices of converting crop products such as carbohydrates or plant oils to ethanol or biodiesel have limited capabilities to curb emission. Moreover, they compete with food production for the most fertile lands. Thus, second generation bioenergy technologies are being developed to process lignocellulosic plant materials from fast growing tree and grass species. A number of deforestation experiments using Earth System models have shown that in the mid- to high latitudes, deforested surface albedo strongly increases in presence of snow. This biophysical effect causes cooling, which could dominate over the biogeochemical warming effect because of the carbon emissions due to deforestation. In order to find out the global bioenergy potential of extensive plantations in the mid- to high latitudes, and the resultant savings in carbon emissions, we use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL run at a high spatial resolution of 0.5°. It represents both natural and managed ecosystems, including the cultivation of cellulosic energy crops. LPJmL is run with 21st century projections of climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration based on the IPCC-SRES business as usual or A2 scenario. Latitudes above 45° in both hemispheres are deforested and planted with crops having the highest bioenergy return for the respective pixels of the model. The rest of the Earth has natural vegetation. The agricultural management intensity values are used such that it results in the best approximation for 1999 - 2003 national yields of wheat and maize as reported by FAOSTAT 2009. Four different scenarios of land management are used ranging from an idealistic or best case scenario, where all limitations of soil and terrain properties are managed to the worst case scenario where none of these properties are managed. Simulated bioenergy potentials from 1901 to 2098 correspond to a significant percentage of the global energy demand and thus could potentially bring about considerable savings in carbon emissions. These potentials will be reported and compared to the energy demand. Analysis of their sensitivities to different land management scenarios will be presented as well.

Dass, P.; Brovkin, V.; Müller, C.; Cramer, W.

2011-12-01

17

Natural Hazards Monitoring and Risk Mitigation  

International Science & Technology Center (ISTC)

Principles of Monitoring of Hazardous Geodynamic and Glaciohydrometeorological Processes in the Areas of Strategically Important for Economics of Georgia Objects and Recommendations on Hazard Mitigation

18

Biotechnology System Facility: Risk Mitigation on Mir  

Science.gov (United States)

NASA is working with its international partners to develop space vehicles and facilities that will give researchers the opportunity to conduct scientific investigations in space. As part of this activity, NASA's Biotechnology Cell Science Program (BCSP) at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) is developing a world-class biotechnology laboratory facility for the International Space Station (ISS). This report describes the BCSP, including the role of the BTS. We identify the purpose and objectives of the BTS and a detailed description of BTS facility design and operational concept, BTS facility and experiment-specific hardware, and scientific investigations conducted in the facility. We identify the objectives, methods, and results of risk mitigation investigations of the effects of microgravity and cosmic radiation on the BTS data acquisition and control system. These results may apply to many other space experiments that use commercial, terrestrial-based data acquisition technology. Another focal point is a description of the end-to-end process of integrating and operating biotechnology experiments on a variety of space vehicles. The identification of lessons learned that can be applied to future biotechnology experiments is an overall theme of the report. We include a brief summary of the science results, but this is not the focus of the report. The report provides some discussion on the successful 130-day tissue engineering experiment performed in BTS on Mir and describes a seminal gene array investigation that identified a set of unique genes that are activated in space.

Gonda, Steve R., III; Galloway, Steve R.

2003-01-01

19

Structural master plan of flood mitigation measures  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Flood protection is one of the practical methods in damage reduction. Although it not possible to be completely protected from flood disaster but major part of damages can be reduced by mitigation plans. In this paper, the optimum flood mitigation master plan is determined by economic evaluation in trading off between the construction costs and expected value of damage reduction as the benefits. Size of the certain mitigation alternative is also be obtained by risk analysis by accepting possibility of flood overtopping. Different flood mitigation alternatives are investigated from various aspects in the Dez and Karun river floodplain areas as a case study in south west of IRAN. The results show that detention dam and flood diversion are the best alternatives of flood mitigation methods as well as enforcing the flood control purpose of upstream multipurpose reservoirs. Dyke and levees are not mostly justifiable because of negative impact on down stream by enhancing routed flood peak discharge magnitude and flood damages as well.

A. Heidari

2009-01-01

20

Industrial Risk Communication and Conflict Mitigation Strategies. Industrial Risk Communication and Conflict Mitigation Strategies.  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Lombardy is one of the most densely populated and industrialized regions in Europe, where nearly 280 Seveso sites are located. The issue of risk communication, as set by the European Seveso Directive is therefore of high relevance in this region. Nevertheless, the Lombardy Region Authorities consider that the implementation of the Directive’s provisions is too weak. Therefore, the Lombardy Region financed an exploratory research in November 2009 and all the research activities ended in February 2011. (Éupolis Lombardia 2011. The research was conducted in order to estimate the existing gaps in risk communication, the subsequent conflicts and to evaluate how to improve the participation of the population in the emergency preparedness activities. The main goal of the project was to improve the communication of risk to the population exposed to industrial risks, hence to mitigate the related social conflict on the basis of an institutional learning process involving governmental bodies industrial organizations and the population. The project was supported by a multidisciplinary research group, which investigated the following aspects:- the regional activities regarding the risk communication at local level;- the nature and status of the main stakeholders groups’ perception of the industrial risks and the existing conflicts, collected through interviews and groups’ discussions;- the analysis of the gaps and ways of improvement related to an effective strategy of communication between industry, population and emergency services. A forum involving all the institutional stakeholders was set to discuss this issue.The paper reports the main results of the research and illustrates the potential strategies to improve the risk communication and the population participation and preparedness for the Lombardy Region. The results showed that the level of risk perception of the population in Lombardy is still too low to define a program of communication without having considered in more detail the mode of involvement of the population. In a context characterized by a distorted perception of risk, the low risk perception could be a sensitive issue that may impend the start of the communication process because it could generate anxiety, alarmism or unnecessary conflicts. Nevertheless, the experiments carried out showed that the population potentially exposed to the industrial risks, if properly involved, shows particular interest in issues related to prevention and self-protection. According to the main results of research project, the involvement of population into a dedicated programme on risk communication should not present a significant concern and the conflict between the industries and the population does not appear to be a particular obstacle to risk communication. On the contrary it was shown that collaboration could be beneficial for all the stakeholders while the most significant limitation to this process, is the low public perception of the problem.Lombardy is one of the most densely populated and industrialized regions in Europe, where nearly 280 Seveso sites are located. The issue of risk communication, as set by the European Seveso Directive is therefore of high relevance in this region. Nevertheless, the Lombardy Region Authorities consider that the implementation of the Directive’s provisions is too weak. Therefore, the Lombardy Region financed an exploratory research in November 2009 and all the research activities ended in February 2011. (Éupolis Lombardia 2011. The research was conducted in order to estimate the existing gaps in risk communication, the subsequent conflicts and to evaluate how to improve the participation of the population in the emergency preparedness activities. The main goal of the project was to improve the communication of risk to the population exposed to industrial risks, hence to mitigate the related social conflict on the basis of an institutional learning process involving governmental bodies industrial organizations and the population. The project was supported

Carmelo Di Mauro

2012-01-01

21

A Review of Risk Perceptions and Other Factors that Influence Flood Mitigation Behavior  

OpenAIRE

In flood risk management, a shift can be observed toward more integrated approaches that increasingly address the role of private households in implementing flood damage mitigation measures. This has resulted in a growing number of studies into the supposed positive relationship between individual flood risk perceptions and mitigation behavior. Our literature review shows, however, that, actually, this relationship is hardly observed in empirical studies. Two arguments are provided as an expl...

Bubeck, P.; Botzen, W. J. W.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

2012-01-01

22

Influence of behavioral biases on the assessment of multi-hazard risks and the implementation of multi-hazard risks mitigation measures: case study of multi-hazard cyclone shelters in Tamil Nadu, India  

Science.gov (United States)

In December 2004, a multiple hazards event devastated the Tamil Nadu province of India. The Sumatra -Andaman earthquake with a magnitude of Mw=9.1-9.3 caused the Indian Ocean tsunami with wave heights up to 30 m, and flooding that reached up to two kilometers inland in some locations. More than 7,790 persons were killed in the province of Tamil Nadu, with 206 in its capital Chennai. The time lag between the earthquake and the tsunami's arrival in India was over an hour, therefore, if a suitable early warning system existed, a proper means of communicating the warning and shelters existing for people would exist, than while this would not have prevented the destruction of infrastructure, several thousands of human lives would have been saved. India has over forty years of experience in the construction of cyclone shelters. With additional efforts and investment, these shelters could be adapted to other types of hazards such as tsunamis and flooding, as well as the construction of new multi-hazard cyclone shelters (MPCS). It would therefore be possible to mitigate one hazard such as cyclones by the construction of a network of shelters while at the same time adapting these shelters to also deal with, for example, tsunamis, with some additional investment. In this historical case, the failure to consider multiple hazards caused significant human losses. The current paper investigates the patterns of the national decision-making process with regards to multiple hazards mitigation measures and how the presence of behavioral and cognitive biases influenced the perceptions of the probabilities of multiple hazards and the choices made for their mitigation by the national decision-makers. Our methodology was based on the analysis of existing reports from national and international organizations as well as available scientific literature on behavioral economics and natural hazards. The results identified several biases in the national decision-making process when the construction of cyclone shelters was being undertaken. The availability heuristics caused a perception of low probability of tsunami following an earthquake, as the last large similar event happened over a hundred years ago. Another led to a situation when decisions were taken on the basis of experience and not statistical evidence, namely, experience showed that the so-called "Ring of Fire" generates underground earthquakes and tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean. This knowledge made decision-makers to neglect the numerical estimations about probability of underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean even though seismologists were warning about probability of a large underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean. The bounded rationality bias led to misperception of signals from the early warning center in the Pacific Ocean. The resulting limited concern resulted in risk mitigation measures that considered cyclone risks, but much less about tsunami. Under loss aversion considerations, the decision-makers perceived the losses connected with the necessary additional investment as being greater than benefits from mitigating a less probable hazard.

Komendantova, Nadejda; Patt, Anthony

2013-04-01

23

Mitigating corporate water risk: Financial market tools and supply management  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available A decision framework for business water-risk response is proposed that considers financial instruments and supply management strategies. Based on available and emergent programmes, companies in the agricultural, commodities, and energy sectors may choose to hedge against financial risks by purchasing futures contracts or insurance products. These strategies address financial impacts such as revenue protection due to scarcity and disruption of direct operations or in the supply chain, but they do not directly serve to maintain available supplies to continue production. In contrast, companies can undertake actions in the watershed to enhance supply reliability and/or they can reduce demand to mitigate risk. Intermediate strategies such as purchasing of water rights or water trading involving financial transactions change the allocation of water but do not reduce overall watershed demand or increase water supply. The financial services industry is playing an increasingly important role, by considering how water risks impact decision making on corporate growth and market valuation, corporate creditworthiness, and bond rating. Risk assessment informed by Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR measures is described, and the role of the financial services industry is characterised. A corporate decision framework is discussed in the context of water resources management strategies under complex uncertainties.

Wendy M. Larson

2012-10-01

24

Crosstalk measurement and mitigation for autostereoscopic displays  

OpenAIRE

In this paper we address the problem of crosstalk reduction for autostereoscopic displays. Crosstalk refers to the perception of one or more unwanted views in addition to the desired one. Specifically, the proposed approach consists of three different stages: a crosstalk measurement stage, where the crosstalk is modeled, a filter design stage, based on the results obtained out of the measurements, to mitigate the crosstalk effect, and a validation test carried out by means of subjective measu...

Barkowsky, Marcus; Campisi, Patrizio; Le Callet, Patrick; Rizzo, Vito

2010-01-01

25

Risk reduction and mitigation: position of Russia  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Up to the middle of 80-s (at least, before the Chernobyl Atomic Power Plant catastrophe in 1986) the policy of the USSR in the field of provision of safety for man and the environment during human activity was oriented to 'absolute' safety (ALARA principle). The FUNDAMENTAL PURPOSE of such policy was construction and production of safety equipment and acceptance of appropriate organizational measures, enabling to exclude during human activity any, no matter how small, hazard to human health and quality of the efficiency of engineering safety systems. However, the experience of human activity of our country in the 80-s and scientific research had to realize, that a policy of 'absolute' safety appears inadequate to those internal laws, which have come to be defined in this period with its character of economic activity. It was realized that this policy has resulted in expensive and even tragic decisions. Within the framework of the requirement about achievement of 'absolute' safety, frequently there is a situation, when the introduction of particular technical systems of safety appears so expensive, and the appropriate risk so insignificant, that as a result, society appears poorer, and total risk for its members grows. The policy of 'absolute' safety represents in general a dangerous and expensive illusion: preventing the death of several people, leads to a considerably greater number of lost lives. In consequence, in the middle of 80-s in our country, as well in many countries or the world, was begun the process, directed on development of a new policy in the field of Provision of Safety - policy of 'acceptable' risk. The basic principles of this policy are discussed in this paper. (authors)

Akimov, V.A.; Feleev, M.I.; Shakhramanian, M.A. [EMERCOM Russia (Russian Federation)

1998-07-01

26

Use of Bisphenol A-containing baby bottles in Cameroon and Nigeria and possible risk management and mitigation measures: community as milestone for prevention.  

Science.gov (United States)

The plasticizer Bisphenol A (BPA) is banned in baby bottles in many industrialized countries due to safety concerns. We provide a pilot view on the potential BPA exposure of bottle-fed children in sub-Saharan Africa through an enquiry on availability, accessibility and affordability of plastic baby bottles, usage pattern, and risk perception. An observational survey was conducted in a randomized group of vending sites (34 pharmacies; 87 shops and markets), in three cities (Yaoundé, Foumbot, Bafoussam) in Cameroon (two regions), and in two cities (Lagos, Port Harcourt) in Nigeria (two states). Interviews in vending sites and group discussions were conducted with 248 mothers. Cameroon and Nigeria showed a largely comparable situation. Plastic baby bottles are largely imported from industrialized countries, where a label indicates the presence/absence of BPA. In pharmacies most plastic baby bottles are labeled as BPA-free, whereas most bottles sold in shops are not BPA-free. BPA-containing bottles are more accessible and affordable, due to sale in common shops and lower costs. The meaning of the label BPA-free is unknown to both vendors and customers: the BPA issue is also largely unknown to policy makers and media and no regulation exists on food contact materials. The wide availability of BPA-containing baby bottles, lack of information and usage patterns (e.g. temperature and duration of heating) suggest a likely widespread exposure of African infants. Possible usage recommendations to mitigate exposure are indicated. Risk communication to policy makers, sellers and citizens is paramount to raise awareness and to oppose possible dumping from countries where BPA-containing materials are banned. Our pilot study points out relevant global health issues such as the capacity building of African communities on informed choices and usage of baby products, and the exploitation of international knowledge by African scientists and risk managers. PMID:24602914

Pouokam, Guy Bertrand; Ajaezi, Godwin Chukwuebuka; Mantovani, Alberto; Orisakwe, Orish Ebere; Frazzoli, Chiara

2014-05-15

27

A review of risk perceptions and other factors that influence flood mitigation behavior.  

Science.gov (United States)

In flood risk management, a shift can be observed toward more integrated approaches that increasingly address the role of private households in implementing flood damage mitigation measures. This has resulted in a growing number of studies into the supposed positive relationship between individual flood risk perceptions and mitigation behavior. Our literature review shows, however, that, actually, this relationship is hardly observed in empirical studies. Two arguments are provided as an explanation. First, on the basis of protection motivation theory, a theoretical framework is discussed suggesting that individuals' high-risk perceptions need to be accompanied by coping appraisal to result in a protective response. Second, it is pointed out that possible feedback from already-adopted mitigation measures on risk perceptions has hardly been considered by current studies. In addition, we also provide a review of factors that drive precautionary behavior other than risk perceptions. It is found that factors such as coping appraisal are consistently related to mitigation behavior. We conclude, therefore, that the current focus on risk perceptions as a means to explain and promote private flood mitigation behavior is not supported on either theoretical or empirical grounds. PMID:22394258

Bubeck, P; Botzen, W J W; Aerts, J C J H

2012-09-01

28

Radon measurement and mitigation activity in Finland  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Radon prevention, measurement and mitigation activities have been increasing in Finland during the 2000's. Nowadays, many municipal authorities, especially those located in high-radon areas, require radon prevention measures. This has activated radon measurements. Owners of new houses having radon piping installed under the floor slab are the most active group to measure and reduce the found high-radon values. Their radon awareness is apparently better than on the average, and the existing piping makes it easier and cheaper to reduce the radon levels. Local campaigns involving invitation flyers mailed to the residents have been a cost-effective means to activate measurements of older houses. So far 116 611 dwellings in low-rise residential buildings have been measured. At least 15 % of the 16 860 dwellings found to exceed the reference level of 400 Bq m-3 had their indoor radon level reduced below that. (authors)

29

Radon measurement and mitigation activity in Finland.  

Science.gov (United States)

Radon prevention, measurement and mitigation activities have been increasing in Finland during the 2000s. Nowadays, many municipal authorities, especially those located in high-radon areas, require radon prevention measures. This has activated radon measurements. Owners of new houses having radon piping installed under the floor slab are the most active group to measure and reduce the found high-radon values. Their radon awareness is apparently better than on the average, and the existing piping makes it easier and cheaper to reduce the radon levels. Local campaigns involving invitation flyers mailed to the residents have been a cost-effective means to activate measurements of older houses. So far 116,611 dwellings in low-rise residential buildings have been measured. At least 15% of the 16,860 dwellings found to exceed the reference level of 400 Bq m(-3) had their indoor radon level reduced below that. PMID:24729562

Valmari, T; Arvela, H; Reisbacka, H; Holmgren, O

2014-07-01

30

Mitigating the risk of radiation-induced cancers: limitations and paradigms in drug development.  

Science.gov (United States)

The United States radiation medical countermeasures (MCM) programme for radiological and nuclear incidents has been focusing on developing mitigators for the acute radiation syndrome (ARS) and delayed effects of acute radiation exposure (DEARE), and biodosimetry technologies to provide radiation dose assessments for guiding treatment. Because a nuclear accident or terrorist incident could potentially expose a large number of people to low to moderate doses of ionising radiation, and thus increase their excess lifetime cancer risk, there is an interest in developing mitigators for this purpose. This article discusses the current status, issues, and challenges regarding development of mitigators against radiation-induced cancers. The challenges of developing mitigators for ARS include: the long latency between exposure and cancer manifestation, limitations of animal models, potential side effects of the mitigator itself, potential need for long-term use, the complexity of human trials to demonstrate effectiveness, and statistical power constraints for measuring health risks (and reduction of health risks after mitigation) following relatively low radiation doses (time to invest in research strategies that result in the development of agents to lower the risk of radiation-induced cancers for populations that survive a significant radiation exposure incident. PMID:24727460

Yoo, Stephen S; Jorgensen, Timothy J; Kennedy, Ann R; Boice, John D; Shapiro, Alla; Hu, Tom C-C; Moyer, Brian R; Grace, Marcy B; Kelloff, Gary J; Fenech, Michael; Prasanna, Pataje G S; Coleman, C Norman

2014-06-01

31

Assessing and Mitigating Risks in Computer Systems  

OpenAIRE

When it comes to non-trivial networked computer systems, bulletproof security is very hard to achieve. Over a system's lifetime new security risks are likely to emerge from e.g. newly discovered classes of vulnerabilities or the arrival of new threat agents. Given the dynamic environment in which computer systems are deployed, continuous evaluations and adjustments are wiser than one-shot e orts for perfection. Security risk management focuses on assessing and treating security...

Netland, Lars-helge

2008-01-01

32

13 CFR 123.21 - What is a mitigation measure?  

Science.gov (United States)

...measures after a disaster occurs (post-disaster) to protect against recurring...107 specifically addresses post-disaster mitigation for home disaster loans...204 specifically addresses post-disaster mitigation for businesses....

2010-01-01

33

A New Technique for Mitigating Risk on US College Campuses  

Science.gov (United States)

High-profile criminal acts continue to plague United States (US) college campuses despite recent efforts to implement more aggressive risk mitigation practices, such as criminal background checks. Despite these efforts, incidents such as the most recent shootings at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University continue to demonstrate that,…

Hughes, Stephanie; White, Rebecca J.; Hertz, Giles

2008-01-01

34

Planning Tools For Seismic Risk Mitigation. Rules And Applications  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Recently, Italian urban planning research in the field of seismic risk mitigation are renewing. In particular, it promotes strategies that integrate urban rehabilitation and aseismic objectives, and also politicizes that are directed to revitalizes urban systems, coupling physical renewal and socio-economic development.In Italy the first law concerning planning for seismic mitigation dates back 1974, the law n. 64 ''Regulation for buildings with particular rules for the seismic areas'' where the rules for buildings in seismic areas concerning also the local hazard. This law, in fact, forced the municipalities to acquire, during the formation of the plans, a preventive opinion of compatibility between planning conditions and geomorphology conditions of the territory. From this date the conviction that the seismic risk must be considered inside the territorial planning especially in terms of strategies of mitigation has been strengthened.The town planners have started to take an interest in seismic risk in the [80]s when the Irpinia's earthquake took place. The researches developed after this earthquake have established that the principal cause of the collapse of buildings are due to from the wrong location of urban settlements (on slopes or crowns) After Irpinia's earthquake the first researches on seismic risk mitigation, in particular on the aspects related to the hazards and to the urban vulnerability were made

35

Peaking of world oil production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.... The purpose of this analysis was to identify the critical issues surrounding the occurrence and mitigation of world oil production peaking. We simplified many of the complexities in an effort to provide a transparent analysis. Nevertheless, our study is neither simple nor brief. We recognize that when oil prices escalate dramatically, there will be demand and economic impacts that will alter our simplified assumptions. Consideration of those feedbacks will be a daunting task but one that should be undertaken. Our aim in this study is to-- • Summarize the difficulties of oil production forecasting; • Identify the fundamentals that show why world oil production peaking is such a unique challenge; • Show why mitigation will take a decade or more of intense effort; • Examine the potential economic effects of oil peaking; • Describe what might be accomplished under three example mitigation scenarios. • Stimulate serious discussion of the problem, suggest more definitive studies, and engender interest in timely action to mitigate its impacts.

Hirsch, R.L. (SAIC); Bezdek, Roger (MISI); Wendling, Robert (MISI)

2005-02-01

36

To protect or abandon: a participatory process on landslide risk mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

With escalating costs of landslide risk mitigation and relief, a challenge for local authorities is to develop landslide risk mitigation measures that are viewed as efficient, feasible and fair by the many stakeholders involved. Innovative measures and the participation of stakeholders in the decision making process are essential elements in developing effective strategies to deal with the ever-changing spatial and temporal patterns of landslide risk. A stakeholder-led policy process, however, can face many social and economic challenges. One of the most difficult is deciding between costly protection measures or relocating homes. Particularly in areas with high population density, protection works are often not built because of economic/environmental constraints or private interests of the local residents. At the same time it not always possible to relocate households even if the costs are deemed less than protecting them. These issues turned out to be crucial in a recent participatory process for selecting risk mitigation measures in the town of Nocera Inferiore, Southern Italy, which experienced a landslide in 2005 causing three fatalities. The paper reports on this process which was structured in a series of meetings with a group of selected residents and several parallel activities open to the public. The preparatory work included semi-structured interviews carried out with key local stakeholders and a public survey eliciting residents' views on landslide risk mitigation. After describing the background of the landslide risk management problem in Nocera Inferiore, the paper focuses on three packages of risk mitigation measures (each of them not exceeding a total cost of 7 million Euro, namely the available funds) and the key trade-offs that emerged during the meetings with the residents. The participants reached a unanimous consensus on fundamental priorities, i.e. the improvement of the warning system, the implementation of an integrated system of monitoring and territorial survey and the stabilization of the open slopes with naturalistic engineering works. Much more debate was devoted to the relocation of residents from the most endangered areas and/or the need to build passive structural works, especially on private properties. Notwithstanding the difficulties in reaching a shared "compromise solution" for risk mitigation, the results demonstrate the value of citizen participation in landslide risk mitigation decisions and highlight the role that participation can play in risk management more generally.

Scolobig, A.; Bayer, J.; Cascini, L.; Ferlisi, S.

2012-04-01

37

Pain management and opioid risk mitigation in the military.  

Science.gov (United States)

Opioid analgesics misuse is a significant military health concern recognized as a priority issue by military leadership. Opioids are among those most commonly prescribed medications in the military for pain management. The military has implemented opioid risk mitigation strategies, including the Sole Provider Program and the Controlled Drug Management Analysis and Reporting Tool, which are used to identify and monitor for risk and misuse. However, there are substantial opportunities to build on these existing systems to better ensure safer opioid prescribing and monitor for misuse. Opioid risk mitigation strategies implemented by the civilian sector include establishing clinical guidelines for opioid prescribing and prescription monitoring programs. These strategies may help to inform opioid risk mitigation in the military health system. Reducing the risk of opioid misuse and improving quality of care for our Warfighters is necessary. This must be done through evidence-based approaches with an investment in research to improve patient care and prevent opioid misuse as well as its sequelae. PMID:24806501

Sharpe Potter, Jennifer; Bebarta, Vikhyat S; Marino, Elise N; Ramos, Rosemarie G; Turner, Barbara J

2014-05-01

38

Earthquake risk mitigation projects in central asia and india  

Science.gov (United States)

In the fall of 2002, GeoHazards International (GHI), a California-based nonprofit organization, launched two 3-year projects, each funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development, to improve the earthquake risk management of 23 cities in Central Asia and India. The objectives of these projects are to: * Assess the earthquake risk of each city, * Identify the most effective risk mitigation options for each city, * Raise awareness of that risk and those mitigation options, and * Initiate mitigation activities in some of these cities. A critical characteristic of these projects is that leaders of each local community will be deeply involved in realizing all four objectives. GHI will work with, in addition to local authorities, national government, academic and non-governmental organizations. In India, GHI’s partners are the Disaster Management Planning Hyogo Office, United Nations Centre for Regional Development (UNCRD) of Kobe, Japan, and the Sustainable Environment and Ecological Development Society (SEEDS), of Delhi, India. In India, we will work in 20 cities that were chosen, in a February 1, 2002 workshop (sponsored by Munich Reinsurance Company) in Delhi; the cities were selected by Indian earthquake professionals on the basis of the cities’ population, hazard, and economic, cultural and political significance. In Central Asia, we will focus on Tashkent, Uzbekistan; Dushanbe, Tadzhikistan; and Almaty, Kazakstan. GHI and its partners are looking for other organizations that would like to collaborate on these projects.

Hausler, E.; Petal, M.; Tobin, T.; Tucker, B.; Gupta, M.; Sharma, A.; Shaw, R.

2003-04-01

39

Land Use Scenario Modeling for Flood Risk Mitigation  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available It is generally accepted that flood risk has been increasing in Europe in the last decades. Accordingly, it becomes a priority to better understand its drivers and mechanisms. Flood risk is evaluated on the basis of three factors: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. If one of these factors increases, then so does the risk. Land use change models used for ex-ante assessment of spatial trends provide planners with powerful tools for territorial decision making. However, until recently this type of model has been largely neglected in strategic planning for flood risk mitigation. Thus, ex-ante assessment of flood risk is an innovative application of land use change models. The aim of this paper is to propose a flood risk mitigation approach using exposure scenarios. The methodology is applied in the Pordenone province in northern Italy. In the past 50 years Pordenone has suffered several heavy floods, the disastrous consequences of which demonstrated the vulnerability of the area. Results of this study confirm that the main driving force of increased flood risk is found in new urban developments in flood-prone areas.

José I. Barredo

2010-05-01

40

Strategy Guideline: Mitigation of Retrofit Risk Factors  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI) is currently developing strategies designed to promote and achieve increased energy savings and promote upgrades in the residential retrofit sector. These strategies are targeted to retrofit program managers, retrofit contractors, policy makers, academic researchers, and non-governmental organizations. This report focuses on four key areas to promote home energy upgrades: fostering accurate energy savings projections; understanding consumer perceptions for energy savings; measuring energy savings, and ensuring quality control for retrofit installations.

Berman, M.; Smith, P.; Porse, E.

2012-12-01

41

Analysing the external supply chain risk driver competitiveness: a risk mitigation framework and business continuity plan.  

Science.gov (United States)

Innovation challenges for handling supply chain risks have become one of the most important drivers in business competitiveness and differentiation. This study analyses competitiveness at the external supply chain level as a driver of risks and provides a framework for mitigating these risks. The mitigation framework, also called the supply chain continuity framework, provides insight into six stages of the business continuity planning (BCP) process life cycle (risk mitigation management, business impact analysis, supply continuity strategy development, supply continuity plan development, supply continuity plan testing and supply continuity plan maintenance), together with the operational constructs: customer service, inventory management, flexibility, time to market, ordering cycle time and quality. The purpose of the BCP process life cycle and operational constructs working together is to emphasise the way in which a supply chain can deal with disruption risks and, consequently, bring competitive advantage. Future research will consider the new risk scenarios and analyse the consequences to promote the improvement of supply chain resilience. PMID:21177223

Blos, Mauricio F; Wee, Hui-Ming; Yang, Joshua

2010-11-01

42

Risk Mitigation in Triadic Network Configurations within a Servitized Context  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Purpose: This paper examines risk mitigation for a servitizing organisation and its supply network configuration. This is an area of research that has not been adequately explored to date within a servitization context. In particular, the paper examines triadic configurations using an agency perspective. Design/methodology/approach: An exploratory case study of a truck manufacturer and its supply network is conducted over a two year period. Data consists predominantly of semi-structured interviews, observations and workshops with the case organisation. Findings: The findings of the study indicate that behavior-based controls, combined with information, are a key contributory factor in mitigating risk within triadic network structures. Research limitations/implications: This research is limited to one in-depth case study, within the truck industry. Whilst this represents an appropriate approach given the exploratory nature of the study, there is a need for further empirical research across different industries. Originality/value: Theoretical insights are gleaned through the application of agency theory as a lens to understand risk mitigation within supply networks within the context of servitization.

Raja, Jawwad; Roehrich, Jens

2014-01-01

43

Mitigating Epidemics through Mobile Micro-measures  

CERN Document Server

Epidemics of infectious diseases are among the largest threats to the quality of life and the economic and social well-being of developing countries. The arsenal of measures against such epidemics is well-established, but costly and insufficient to mitigate their impact. In this paper, we argue that mobile technology adds a powerful weapon to this arsenal, because (a) mobile devices endow us with the unprecedented ability to measure and model the detailed behavioral patterns of the affected population, and (b) they enable the delivery of personalized behavioral recommendations to individuals in real time. We combine these two ideas and propose several strategies to generate such recommendations from mobility patterns. The goal of each strategy is a large reduction in infections, with a small impact on the normal course of daily life. We evaluate these strategies over the Orange D4D dataset and show the benefit of mobile micro-measures, even if only a fraction of the population participates. These preliminary ...

Kafsi, Mohamed; Maystre, Lucas; Yartseva, Lyudmila; Grossglauser, Matthias; Thiran, Patrick

2013-01-01

44

Interventionist and participatory approaches to flood risk mitigation decisions: two case studies in the Italian Alps  

Science.gov (United States)

Flood risk mitigation decisions pose key challenges not only from a technical but also from a social, economic and political viewpoint. There is an increasing demand for improving the quality of these processes by including different stakeholders - and especially by involving the local residents in the decision making process - and by guaranteeing the actual improvement of local social capacities during and after the decision making. In this paper we analyse two case studies of flood risk mitigation decisions, Malborghetto-Valbruna and Vipiteno-Sterzing, in the Italian Alps. In both of them, mitigation works have been completed or planned, yet following completely different approaches especially in terms of responses of residents and involvement of local authorities. In Malborghetto-Valbruna an 'interventionist' approach (i.e. leaning towards a top down/technocratic decision process) was used to make decisions after the flood event that affected the municipality in the year 2003. In Vipiteno-Sterzing, a 'participatory' approach (i.e. leaning towards a bottom-up/inclusive decision process) was applied: decisions about risk mitigation measures were made by submitting different projects to the local citizens and by involving them in the decision making process. The analysis of the two case studies presented in the paper is grounded on the results of two research projects. Structured and in-depth interviews, as well as questionnaire surveys were used to explore residents' and local authorities' orientations toward flood risk mitigation. Also a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) involving key stakeholders was used to better understand the characteristics of the communities and their perception of flood risk mitigation issues. The results highlight some key differences between interventionist and participatory approaches, together with some implications of their adoption in the local context. Strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches, as well as key challenges for the future are also discussed.

Bianchizza, C.; Del Bianco, D.; Pellizzoni, L.; Scolobig, A.

2012-04-01

45

Cost-benefit analysis of alternative LNG vapor-mitigation measures. Topical report, September 14, 1987-January 15, 1991  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A generalized methodology is presented for comparing the costs and safety benefits of alternative hazard mitigation measures for a large LNG vapor release. The procedure involves the quantification of the risk to the public before and after the application of LNG vapor mitigation measures. In the study, risk was defined as the product of the annual accident frequency, estimated from a fault tree analysis, and the severity of the accident. Severity was measured in terms of the number of people who may be exposed to 2.5% or higher concentration. The ratios of the annual costs of the various mitigation measures to their safety benefits (as determined by the differences between the risk before and after mitigation measure implementation), were then used to identify the most cost-effective approaches to vapor cloud mitigation

46

Development of risk mitigation tool to mitigate risks in supply networks  

OpenAIRE

There are different risks in a company's supply chain. From down-stream to up-stream, the supply chain is not a chain anymore. It has evolved to a more complicated and intricate web of flow of goods and information. When dealing with these intricate paths, there is always an associated risk in the supply chain that is caused by some disruption in the flow of goods and information. It is essential for any organization to attempt to prevent these risks. One way to prevent these risks is by usin...

Chennupati, Sai Bhanu Prasad

2013-01-01

47

Optimum cooling of data centers application of risk assessment and mitigation techniques  

CERN Document Server

This book provides data center designers and operators with methods by which to assess and mitigate the risks associated with utilization of optimum cooling solutions. The goal is to provide readers with sufficient knowledge to implement measures such as free air cooling or direct liquid immersion cooling properly, or combination of existing and emerging cooling technologies in data centers, base stations, and server farms. This book also: Discusses various telecommunication infrastructures, with an emphasis on data centers and base stations Covers the most commonly known energy and power management techniques, as well as emerging cooling solutions for data centers Describes the risks to the electronic equipment fitted in these installations and the methods of risk mitigation Devotes  a particular focus to an up-to-date review of the emerging cooling methods (such as free air cooling and direct liquid immersion cooling) and tools and best practices for designers, technology developers, installation operators...

Dai, Jun; Das, Diganta; Pecht, Michael G

2014-01-01

48

Risk reduction analysis of severe accident prevention and mitigation systems  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is currently addressing the problem of how regulations might be changed to include consideration of degraded core accidents. In support of this, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction program is being performed to assess the benefits and impacts of a set of degraded core safety features. This paper describes some initial results of Phase I of the program which includes estimates of the effects which various preventive and mitigative safety features have on the frequencies and consequences of core melt accidents for six reference reactors

49

The last mile: earthquake risk mitigation assistance in developing countries.  

Science.gov (United States)

Over the past few decades, we have seen many joint programmes between developed countries and developing countries to help the latter in managing their earthquake risks. These programmes span the whole spectrum of disciplines from seismology and geology to engineering, social science and economics. Many of these programmes have been effective in raising awareness, in urging governments to work towards risk reduction and in spawning an 'industry' of disaster management in many of the developing countries. However, even as these efforts proceed, we have seen death and destruction due to earthquake after earthquake in developing countries, strongly suggesting that the problems for which those assistance programmes were developed are not so effective. Therefore, it is natural to ask why this is happening. Are the assistance programmes reaching the right people? Maybe we are reaching the right people and doing the right type of things in these countries, but we have not allowed enough time for our actions to take effect. Maybe we are reaching the right people and doing the right actions for most of the miles we need to cover in helping communities mitigate their earthquake risks. However, the issue could be whether we are reaching people who represent the 'last mile' on this pathway. Here, I explore whether the work that many organizations and countries have done towards earthquake risk reduction over the past few decades in developing countries is appropriate or not. Why do we keep seeing the catastrophes of Sumatra, Chi Chi, Bhuj, Turkey, Algeria and on and on? I will articulate what I think is the problem. My contribution is intended to generate discussions, self-analysis of our approaches, what we are doing right and what we are not doing right. Hopefully such discussions will result in a better connection between the last mile and programmes around the world which are working towards earthquake risk mitigation. PMID:16844655

Shah, Haresh C

2006-08-15

50

Reservoir souring: it is all about risk mitigation  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The presence of H2S in produced fluid can be due to various sources, among which are heat/rock interaction and leaks from other reservoirs. This paper discusses the reasons, risk assessment and tools for mitigating reservoir souring. Uncontrolled microorganism activity can cause a sweet reservoir (without H2S) to become sour (production of H2S). The development of bacteria is one of the main causes of reservoir souring in unconventional gas fields. It is difficult to predict souring in seawater due to produced water re-injection (PWRI). Risk assessment and modeling techniques for reservoir souring are discussed. Some of the factors controlling H2S production include injection location, presence of scavenging minerals and biogenic souring. Mitigation methods such as biocide treatment of injection water, sulphate removal from seawater, microbial monitoring techniques such as the molecular microbiology method (MMM), and enumeration by serial dilution are explained. In summary, it can be concluded that reservoir souring is a long-term problem and should be assessed at the beginning of operations.

Kuijvenhoven, Cor [Shell (Canada)

2011-07-01

51

Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Planning and decision making amidst programmatic and technological risks represent significant challenges for projects. This presentation addresses the four step risk-assessment process needed to determine clear path forward to mature needed technology and design, license, and construct advanced nuclear power plants, which have never been built before, including Small Modular Reactors. This four step process has been carefully applied to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. STEP 1 - Risk Identification Risks are identified, collected, and categorized as technical risks, programmatic risks, and project risks, each of which result in cost and schedule impacts if realized. These include risks arising from the use of technologies not previously demonstrated in a relevant application. These risks include normal and accident scenarios which the SMR could experience including events that cause the disablement of engineered safety features (typically documented in Phenomena Identification Ranking Tables (PIRT) as produced with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and design needs which must be addressed to further detail the design. Product - Project Risk Register contained in a database with sorting, presentation, rollup, risk work off functionality similar to the NGNP Risk Management System . STEP 2 - Risk Quantification The risks contained in the risk register are then scored for probability of occurrence and severity of consequence, if realized. Here the scoring methodology if realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap. Product - Risk Handling Strategy. STEP 4 - Residual Risk Work off The risk handling strategy is entered into the Project Risk Allocation Tool (PRAT) to analyze each task for its ability to reduce risk. The result is risk-informed task prioritization. The risk handling strategy is captured in the Risk Management System, a relational database that provides conventional database utility, including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. The tool's Hierarchy Tree allows visualization and analyses of complex relationships between risks, risk mitigation tasks, design needs, and PIRTs. Product - Project Risk Allocation Tool and Risk Management System which depict project plan to reduce risk and current progress in doing so.

52

TSUNAMI RISK MITIGATION THROUGH STRATEGIC LAND-USE PLANNING AND EVACUATION PROCEDURES FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN SRI LANKA  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Safety measures against the future disaster risk are considered as the main aspect of post disaster reconstructions. The majority of post-disaster villages/settlements and due projects on Sri Lankan coastline are apparently lacking behind the proper safety measures and adequate evacuation procedures. Therefore the immediate necessities of proper safety measures have to be emphasized in order to mitigate future tsunami risks. This paper introduces a number of post disaster coastal villages/settlements, which are in future coastline hazard risk, mainly in a future tsunami event. These include their location risk, land uses and housing designs defects and shortcomings of other safety measures. Furthermore few tsunami risk mitigation measures through land use planning strategies, which could be applied more easily in community level, are introduced. In addition to those the strategic development methods of functional networks of evacuation routes and shelters in different topographies are examined.

Woharika Kaumudi Weerasinghe

2011-01-01

53

Industrial Risk Communication and Conflict Mitigation Strategies. Industrial Risk Communication and Conflict Mitigation Strategies.  

OpenAIRE

Lombardy is one of the most densely populated and industrialized regions in Europe, where nearly 280 Seveso sites are located. The issue of risk communication, as set by the European Seveso Directive is therefore of high relevance in this region. Nevertheless, the Lombardy Region Authorities consider that the implementation of the Directive’s provisions is too weak. Therefore, the Lombardy Region financed an exploratory research in November 2009 and all the research activities ended...

Carmelo Di Mauro; Daniele Baranzini

2012-01-01

54

Risk measurement – gap analysis  

OpenAIRE

Proper identification and managing of interest rate risk exposure contributes to improvement of company's financial performance, measured by income stabilization. Thus, effective managing of interest rate risk is in firm best interest. The article outlines the issues of interest rate risk measuring with an application of gap analysis. The interest rate risk is one of the most significant in conducting business activities. It is observed that the scale of the exposure is growing, due to the co...

Letkowski, Dariusz

2012-01-01

55

Fish habitat mitigation measures for hydrotechnical projects  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In recent years, the identification and mitigation of environmental impacts of hydrotechnical projects, particularly on fish and fish habitats, have become a major component of project planning and design. Potential impacts to fish and fish habitat may include increased fish mortality, decreased species diversity, and loss or decreases in fish production due to loss of habitat or alteration of its suitability. These impacts arise from flooding of riverine habitat, alteration of flow quantity and distribution, changes in morphology, and alteration of water quality, including suspended sediments, temperature, dissolved oxygen, and mercury. The results of a study for the Canadian Federal Department of Fisheries and Oceans Central and Arctic Region, examining fish habitat mitigation techniques for their applicability to hydrotechnical projects in Canada are summarized. The requirements for achievement and verification of the no net loss policy for a project are discussed. 10 refs., 2 tabs

56

Flicker Detection, Measurement and Means of Mitigation: A Review  

Science.gov (United States)

The voltage fluctuations caused by rapid industrial load change have been a major concern for supply utilities, regulatory agencies and customers. This paper gives a general review about how to examine/assess voltage flicker and methods followed in measuring the flickers due to rapid changing loads and means for its mitigation. It discusses the effects on utilities conditions, compensators response time and compensator capacity of flicker mitigation. A comparison between conventional mitigation techniques and the state-of-art mitigation techniques are carried out. It is shown in many cases that the state-of-art solution provides higher performance compared with conventional mitigation techniques. However, the choice of most suitable solution depends on characteristics of the supply at the point of connection, the requirement of the load and economics.

Virulkar, V. B.; Aware, M. V.

2014-04-01

57

Mitigating failure risk in an aging electric power transmission system  

Science.gov (United States)

As the electric transmission system in the U.S. ages, mitigating the risk of high-voltage transformer failures becomes an increasingly important issue for transmission owners and operators. This thesis addresses the problem of allocating high-voltage transformers throughout the electric grid in order to mitigate this risk. We introduce two models that investigate different characteristics of the problem. The first model focusses on the spatial allocation of transformers in a static, two-stage context. Algorithmically, this model investigates the use of approximate dynamic programming (ADP) for solving large scale stochastic facility location problems. The ADP algorithms that we develop consistently obtain near optimal solutions for problems where the optimum is computable and outperform a standard heuristic on more complex problems. Our computational results show that the ADP methodology can be applied to stochastic facility location problems that cannot be solved with exact algorithms. The second model optimizes the acquisition and the deployment of high-voltage transformers dynamically over time. We formulate the problem as a Markov Decision Process which cannot be solved for realistic problem instances. Instead we solve the problem using approximate dynamic programming using a number of different value function approximations, which are compared against an optimal solution for a simplified version of the problem. The best-performing approximation produces solutions within a few percent of the optimum with very fast convergence. The results show that ADP can used to solve large scale resource allocation problems when resources have long lead times. This thesis emphasizes numerical work. We apply our best performing algorithms to realistic problem instances based on a real-world transformer population, which gives insights into a broad range of transformer management issues of practical interest. We also analyze existing transformer management policies and show how our models and algorithms can be used to reduce risk and costs.

Enders, Johannes

58

Evaluation of release mitigating measures in severe reactor accidents  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In this paper some remarks have been put down on a resent use of risk analyses to evaluate the need for installing containment filtered vent or other release mitigating system in nuclear power plants in Sweden. It includes the background for doing the analyses, the method and assumptions used, optional system to be analysed and the result in the form of riskcurves

59

Risk reduction associated with severe accident mitigation features - a regulatory perspective  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper describes the overall approach being pursued by the Commission and the specific activities underway relating to risk reduction associated with severe accident mitigation features in light water reactors; more specifically, the paper examines (1) the use of risk assessment as a system design tool to assess mitigation features/strategies; (2) a number of mitigation features and their potential contribution to risk reduction, including the all important effect of ''competing risks''; and (3) the key phenomena associated with severe core accidents and their role in the evaluation of mitigation features/strategies for risk reduction. Finally, the paper puts the above into perspective by focusing on a dry containment PWR presently under investigation. It will summarize and discuss the results from this early study and the direction that related studies/efforts might take in terms of further development of the mitigation features/strategies option for risk reduction

60

Vrancea earthquakes. Courses for specific actions to mitigate seismic risk  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Earthquakes in the Carpathian-Pannonian region are confined to the crust, except the Vrancea zone, where earthquakes with focal depth down to 200 Km occur. For example, the ruptured area migrated from 150 km to 180 km (November 10,1940, Mw = 7.7) from 90 km to 110 km (March 4, 1977, Mw 7.4), from 130 km to 150 km (August 30, 1986, Mw = 7.1) and from 70 km to 90 km (May 30, 1990, Mw = 6.9) depth. The depth interval between 110 km and 130 km remains not ruptured since 1802, October 26, when it was the strongest earthquake occurred in this part of Central Europe. The magnitude is assumed to be Mw = 7.9 - 8.0 and this depth interval is a natural candidate for the next strong Vrancea event. While no country in the world is entirely safe, the lack of capacity to limit the impact of seismic hazards remains a major burden for all countries and while the world has witnessed an exponential increase in human and material losses due to natural disasters given by earthquakes, there is a need to reverse trends in seismic risk mitigation to future events. Main courses for specific actions to mitigate the seismic risk given by strong deep Vrancea earthquakes should be considered as key for development actions: - Early warning system for industrial facilities. Early warning is more than a technological instrument to detect, monitor and submit warnings. It should become part of a management information system for decision-making in information system for decision-making in the context of national institutional frameworks for disaster management and part of national and local strategies and programmers for risk mitigation; - Prediction program of Vrancea strong earthquakes of short and long term; - Hazard seismic map of Romania. The wrong assessment of the seismic hazard can lead to dramatic situations as those from Bucharest or Kobe. Before the 1977 Vrancea earthquake, the city of Bucharest was designed to intensity I = VII (MMI) and the real intensity was I = IX1/2-X (MMI); - Seismic microzonation of large populated cities. There are zones in Bucharest which have fundamental periods of the soil and geological structures very different and during August 30, 1986 Vrancea earthquake the variations of the recorded peak accelerations were from simple to triple ones; - Shake map. This shake map now under completion will allow us rapidly portray, in real time, the extent of shaking during of earthquake in a simplified form suitable for immediate post-earthquake decision-making; - Seismic tomography of dams for avoiding catastrophes. There are applications of seismic tomography and in general of seismic imaging like methods of investigation for mitigation of earthquake effects. (authors)

61

An integrated approach to risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN threat  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

CBRN mass casualty events threat mitigation remains today the highest international priority. Although significant progress has been made, the national security requirements for efforts to combat Weapons of Mass Destruction and Weapons of Mass Disruption will be of the highest national priority in the near future. An integration of a number of approaches is essential in the risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN treat. Preparedness measures and procedures, engineering, science and technology, policy, medical, and emergency response are essential to reduce the threat from the proliferation and use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Improved coordination between international, public and private security entities is also essential task to hopefully prevent the terrorist attacks. In this lecture, it will be presented very important scientific approach to risk assessment of potential use of nuclear, radiological, biological or chemical weapons in terrorist actions. An integrated approach for mitigating the CBRN threat, crisis management and preparedness measures for prevention and reduction of potential consequences, will be presented.(author)

62

Cost control and risk mitigation of major projects  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In this paper and presentation, the four major types of estimates will be discussed, i.e., capacity factored, equipment factored, semi-detailed and detailed. Key relationships between particular portions of estimates will be discussed such as the relationship between direct field labor and indirect field costs. Having set the basis for developing a project's cost through estimating, the paper will then list and discuss the fifteen key steps which must be followed to control the costs of a project. Next, the subject of allowances and contingency will be discussed and defined and the differences between the two will be highlighted. Having established exactly what contingency is, the subject of risk analysis through RANGE estimating will be discussed. The methods used to establish a precise contingency and probability of an over/under run will be discussed. Finally, the paper will discuss the methods by which a project manager, owner or contractor can mitigate risks; that is to eliminate, transfer or minimize their effect

63

Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.; George, K.; Hu, X.; Kim, M. H.; Nikjoo, H.

2006-01-01

64

Relevance of Fukushima Nuclear Accident to India: Nuclear Radiation Risk and Interventions to Mitigate Adverse Fallout  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The environmental radiation release from Fukushima nuclear power following tsunami in Japan has once again highlighted the omnipotent risk of radiation injury in the today’s world. India is at a real risk from radiation fallout both due to nuclear power plant accidents and nuclear warfare threat. The risk from nuclear radiation accident in India is further increased by the region being endemic for iodine deficiency as adverse effects following nuclear radiation fallout like thyroid cancer is significantly higher in iodine deficient populations .There is need to institute disaster preparedness measures to mitigate the damage in case of a nuclear accident. Interventions to control adverse fallout of nuclear radiation include evacuation, sheltering and food controls as well as iodine prophylaxis

Yadav Kapil, Varshney Neha, Aslesh OP, Karmakar MG, Pandav Chandrakant S

2012-09-01

65

Gardermoen Airport development:Evaluation of mitigation measures for moose  

OpenAIRE

English: This report is an evaluation of how effective the mitigation measures have been in preventing the new Gardermoen Railroad and the expansion of European Highway #6 (E6) from becoming a barrier for moose. Additionally I review potential methods to improve the east-west migration possibilities for moose in the greater Romerike area. This evaluation was conducted during the third winter after numerous wildlife passages were completed over the railway and only measures the use by moose. T...

Kastdalen, Leif

1999-01-01

66

Wildfires, fuel treatment and risk mitigation in Australian eucalypt forests: insights from landscape-scale simulation.  

Science.gov (United States)

Wildfires pose significant risks to people and human infrastructure worldwide. The treatment of fuel in landscapes may alter these risks but the magnitude of this effect on risk is poorly understood. Evidence from Australian Eucalyptus forests suggests that mitigation of risk using prescribed burning as a fuel treatment is partial because weather and fuel dynamics are conducive to regular high intensity fires. We further examine the response of risk to treatment in eucalypt forests using landscape simulation modelling. We model how five key measures of wildfire activity that govern risk to people and property may respond to variations in rate and spatial pattern of prescribed fire. We then model effects of predicted climate change (2050 scenarios) to determine how the response of risk to treatment is likely to be altered in the future. The results indicate that a halving of risk to people and property in these forests is likely to require treatment rates of 7-10% of the area of the landscape per annum. Projections of 2050 weather conditions under climate change further substantially diminished the effect of rate of treatment. A large increase in rates of treatment (i.e. circa. 50% over current levels) would be required to counteract these effects of climate change. Such levels of prescribed burning are unlikely to be financially feasible across eucalypt dominated vegetation in south eastern Australia. Despite policy imperatives to expand fuel treatment, a reduction rather than an elimination of risk will result. Multi-faceted strategies will therefore be required for the management of risk. PMID:22531752

Bradstock, R A; Cary, G J; Davies, I; Lindenmayer, D B; Price, O F; Williams, R J

2012-08-30

67

Power Outage, Business Continuity and Businesses' Choices of Power Outage Mitigation Measures  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Problem statement: Power outage has been mentioned as one of the most experienced and perceived risks by various types of businesses and organizations. Thus, reducing the impacts of power outage has become a key agenda in business continuity planning. Back-up or stand-by generators are among the most well known measures taken by power consumers to tackle the power outage problem. Approach: A survey was conducted to understand various aspects of power outage and the impacts of power outrage on businesses. In addition a choice experiment method was used to derive businesses? preferences for different power outage mitigation measures that would have a range of prices, space requirements, air and noise pollution as well as mobility attributes using a sample of Canadian businesses located in the . Sample was drawn from businesses operating in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA and surrounding communities in Ontario, Canada. Results: It was found that majority of businesses have experienced and unconvinced by power outage and consider it to be a major risk to their operations. Production loss, data loss, damage to equipment and loss of lighting are the most significant sources for inconveniences caused by the power outages. It was found that a considerable number of businesses have not taken appropriate measures to mitigate this risk. Estimations from the responses revealed that sample businesses had a positive willingness to pay for power outage reduction and that businesses prefer power outage mitigation measures that are least costly, have low levels of air and noise pollution and occupy smaller spaces respectively. Conclusion: An uninterrupted power supply is an important element of business continuity in today?s business world. Although many businesses are not fully prepared against power outages, they are willing to pay for low cost and low pollution power outage mitigation measures.

Ali Asgary

2011-01-01

68

Atmospheric Effects on InSAR Measurements and Their Mitigation  

OpenAIRE

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is a powerful technology for observing the Earth surface, especially for mapping the Earth's topography and deformations. InSAR measurements are however often significantly affected by the atmosphere as the radar signals propagate through the atmosphere whose state varies both in space and in time. Great efforts have been made in recent years to better understand the properties of the atmospheric effects and to develop methods for mitigating th...

Jiang-ping Long; Guang-cai Feng; Jian-jun Zhu; Zhi-wei Li; Xiao-li Ding

2008-01-01

69

Measuring Systemic Risk  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution's contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases with the institution's leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system's loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are ‘taxed’ based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads.

Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

2012-01-01

70

Risk mitigation strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A basic requirement for ITER equipment to meet is a high level of reliability, because ITER operation time is precious and radioactive operation leaves limited scope for repair. In order to reduce the risk of failure during ITER operation an effective risk mitigation strategy is necessary. This paper presents such strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher (ECUPL). A preliminary ECUPL risk analysis identifies possible failure modes. A probabilistic risk assessment quantifies the risk of failure using a 4 x 4 impact-likelihood matrix. Impact is quantified through technical, cost and schedule elements. Likelihood depends on the risk mitigation strategy adopted. A cost benefit analysis determines the most cost effective risk mitigation strategy. An essential element in risk mitigation is the testing of equipment prior to installation on the ITER machine. This paper argues the need for low- and highpower millimetre wave tests carried out on the fully assembled ECUPL. It presents a conceptual design for a dedicated on-site test bed that can handle 2 of 8 microwave beams at 2 MW long pulse operation.

71

13 CFR 123.402 - Can your business include its relocation as a mitigation measure in an application for a pre...  

Science.gov (United States)

...mitigation measure in an application for a pre-disaster mitigation loan? 123.402...ADMINISTRATION DISASTER LOAN PROGRAM Pre-Disaster Mitigation Loans § 123.402...mitigation measure in an application for a pre-disaster mitigation loan? Yes,...

2010-01-01

72

Risk Measures and Nonlinear Expectations  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Coherent and convex risk measures, Choquet expectation and Peng’s g-expectation are all generalizations of mathematical expectation. All have been widely used to assess financial riskiness under uncertainty. In this paper, we investigate differences amongst these risk measures and expectations. For this purpose, we constrain our attention of coherent and convex risk measures, and Choquet expectation to the domain of g-expectation. Some differences among coherent and convex risk measures and Choquet expectations are accounted for in the framework of g-expectations. We show that in the family of convex risk measures, only coherent risk measures satisfy Jensen’s inequality. In mathematical finance, risk measures and Choquet expectations are typically used in the pricing of contingent claims over families of measures. The different risk measures will typically yield different pricing. In this paper, we show that the coherent pricing is always less than the corresponding Choquet pricing. This property and inequality fails in general when one uses pricing by convex risk measures. We also discuss the relation between static risk measure and dynamic risk measure in the framework of g-expectations. We show that if g-expectations yield coherent (convex risk measures then the corresponding conditional g-expectations or equivalently the dynamic risk measure is also coherent (convex. To prove these results, we establish a new converse of the comparison theorem of g-expectations.

Zengjing Chen

2013-08-01

73

Risk Measures and Portfolio Optimization  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In this paper we investigate portfolio optimization under Value at Risk, Average Value at Risk and Limited Expected Loss constraints in a continuous time framework, where stocks follow a geometric Brownian motion. Analytic expressions for Value at Risk, Average Value at Risk and Limited Expected Loss are derived. We solve the problem of minimizing risk measures applied to portfolios. Moreover, the portfolio’s expected return is maximized subject to the aforementioned risk measures. We illustrate the effect of these risk measures on portfolio optimization by using numerical experiments.

Priscilla Serwaa Nkyira Gambrah

2014-09-01

74

VALUE AT RISK - CORPORATE RISK MEASUREMENT  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The notion of 'risk' is used in a number of sciences. The Faculty of Law studies the risk depending on its legality. The Accident Theory applies this term to describe the damage and the disasters. One can find studies on the risks in the works of psychology, philosophy, medicine and within each of these areas the study of the risk is based on the given science subject and, of course, on their methods and approaches. Such a variety of risk study is explained by the diversity of this phenomenon. Under the market economy conditions, the risk is an essential component of any economic agent management policy, of the approach developed by this one, a strategy that depends almost entirely on individual ability and capacity to anticipate his evolution and to exploit his opportunities, assuming a so-called 'risk of business failure.' There are several ways to measure the risks in projects, one of the most used methods to measure this being the Value at Risk(VaR. Value at Risk (VaR was made famous by JP Morgan in the mid 1990s, by introducing the RiskMetrics approach, and hence, by far, has been sanctioned by several Governing Bodies throughout the world bank. In short, it measures the value of risk capital stocks in a given period at a certain probability of loss. This measurement can be modified for risk applications through, for example, the potential loss values affirmation in a certain amount of time during the economic life of the project- clearly, a project with a lower VaR is better. It should be noted that it is not always possible or advisable for a company to limit itself to the remote analysis of each risk because the risks and their effects are interdependent and constitute a system .In addition, there are risks which, in combination with other risks, tend to produce effects which they would not have caused by themselves and risks that tend to offset and even cancel each other out.

Anis Cecilia-Nicoleta

2011-12-01

75

ISLOCA prevention and mitigation measures. Final report, September 1991  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A light water reactor power plant has auxiliary systems interconnected with the reactor coolant system that are not designed for reactor operating pressure. These principally include the shutdown heat removal systems and various emergency cooling injection systems. There are multiple isolation valves that prevent reactor vessel pressure from causing overpressurization in low pressure interfacing systems. Combinations of hardware failures or operational errors are necessary to expose these systems to overpressurization. An overpressurization could lead to subsequent failure of the low pressure system outside of containment while the plant is at power. Such a potential event has come to be called an interfacing system loss of coolant accident (ISLOCA). This report indicates ISLOCA prevention and mitigation measures that are currently being practiced at various plants in the U.S. The report also suggests measures that are small extrapolations of current good practices. They are put forth as ideas for consideration and evaluation. The report seeks to pull together in one place the measures and practices that already are available and being used so that readers can see the full spectrum of approaches to prevention and mitigation. (author)

76

Tsunami prevention and mitigation necessities and options derived from tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia  

Science.gov (United States)

Risk and vulnerability assessment is an important component of an effective End-to-End Tsunami Early Warning System and therefore contributes significantly to disaster risk reduction. Risk assessment is a key strategy to implement and design adequate disaster prevention and mitigation measures. The knowledge about expected tsunami hazard impacts, exposed elements, their susceptibility, coping and adaptation mechanisms is a precondition for the development of people-centred warning structures, local specific response and recovery policy planning. The developed risk assessment and its components reflect the disaster management cycle (disaster time line) and cover the early warning as well as the emergency response phase. Consequently the components hazard assessment, exposure (e.g. how many people/ critical facilities are affected?), susceptibility (e.g. are the people able to receive a tsunami warning?), coping capacity (are the people able to evacuate in time?) and recovery (are the people able to restore their livelihoods?) are addressed and quantified. Thereby the risk assessment encompasses three steps: (i) identifying the nature, location, intensity and probability of potential tsunami threats (hazard assessment); (ii) determining the existence and degree of exposure and susceptibility to those threats; and (iii) identifying the coping capacities and resources available to address or manage these threats. The paper presents results of the research work, which is conducted in the framework of the GITEWS project and the Joint Indonesian-German Working Group on Risk Modelling and Vulnerability Assessment. The assessment methodology applied follows a people-centred approach to deliver relevant risk and vulnerability information for the purposes of early warning and disaster management. The analyses are considering the entire coastal areas of Sumatra, Java and Bali facing the Sunda trench. Selected results and products like risk maps, guidelines, decision support information and other GIS products will be presented. The focus of the products is on the one hand to provide relevant risk assessment products as decision support to issue a tsunami warning within the early warning stage. On the other hand the maps and GIS products shall provide relevant information to enable local decision makers to act adequately concerning their local risks. It is shown that effective prevention and mitigation measures can be designed based on risk assessment results and information especially when used pro-active and beforehand a disaster strikes. The conducted hazard assessment provides the probability of an area to be affected by a tsunami threat divided into two ranked impact zones. The two divided impact zones directly relate to tsunami warning levels issued by the Early Warning Center and consequently enable the local decision maker to base their planning (e.g. evacuation) accordingly. Within the tsunami hazard assessment several hundred pre-computed tsunami scenarios are analysed. This is combined with statistical analysis of historical event data. Probabilities of tsunami occurrence considering probabilities of different earthquake magnitudes, occurrences of specific wave heights at coast and spatial inundation probability are computed. Hazard assessment is then combined with a comprehensive vulnerability assessment. Here deficits in e.g. people's ability to receive and understand a tsunami warning and deficits in their ability to respond adequately (evacuate on time) are quantified and are visualized for the respective coastal areas. Hereby socio-economic properties (determining peoples ability to understand a warning and to react) are combined with environmental conditions (land cover, slope, population density) to calculate the time needed to evacuate (reach a tsunami safe area derived through the hazard assessment). This is implemented using a newly developed GIS cost-distance weighting approach. For example, the amount of people affected in a certain area is dependent on expected tsunami intensity, inundated area, estimated tsuna

Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Steinmetz, T.; Mück, M.; Strunz, G.; Riedlinger, T.; Anwar, H. Z.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.

2009-04-01

77

Thermal study of payload module for the next-generation infrared space telescope SPICA in risk mitigation phase  

Science.gov (United States)

SPace Infrared telescope for Cosmology and Astrophysics (SPICA) is a pre-project of JAXA in collaboration with ESA to be launched around 2020. The SPICA is transferred into a halo orbit around the second Lagrangian point (L2) in the Sun-Earth system, which enables us to use effective radiant cooling in combination with mechanical cooling system in order to cool a 3 m large IR telescope below 6 K. At a present, a conceptional study of SPICA is underway to assess and mitigate mission's risks; the thermal study for the risk mitigation sets a goal of a 25% margin on cooling power of 4 K/1 K temperature regions, a 25% margin on the heat load from Focal Plane Instruments (FPIs) at intermediated temperature region, to enhance the reliability of the mechanical cooler system, and to enhance feasibility of ground tests. Thermal property measurements of FRP materials are also important. This paper introduces details of the thermal design study for risk mitigation, including development of the truss separation mechanism, the cryogenic radiator, mechanical cooler system, and thermal property measurements of materials.

Shinozaki, Keisuke; Sato, Yoichi; Sawada, Kenichiro; Ando, Makiko; Sugita, Hiroyuki; Yamawaki, Toshihiro; Mizutani, Tadahiro; Komatsu, Keiji; Nakagawa, Takao; Murakami, Hiroshi; Matsuhara, Hideo; Takada, Makoto; Takai, Shigeki; Okabayashi, Akinobu; Tsunematsu, Shoji; Kanao, Kenichi; Narasaki, Katsuhiro

2014-11-01

78

A NOVEL RISK ANALYSIS AND MITIGATION METHOD IN DISTRIBUTED BANKING SYSTEM  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The paper introduces a Fractional Reverse Banking like Distributed Banking System and the infrastructure is becoming more and more complex, and connected to large number of security issues and amount of risks to readiness assets are increasing. This is done to expand the economy by freeing up capital that can be loaned out to other parties. Most countries operate under this type of system. Hence, the process of identification, analysis, and mitigation of Information Security risks has assumed utmost importance. This quality paper grants combination of quantitative and qualitative information security risk analysis methodology for the system. The proposed methodology incorporates three approaches. Asset identifying approach identifies assets and their risk. Partitioned approach identifies risk factor for all the requirements in an asset depending on value. Exhaustive approach identifies the threat-vulnerability pair responsible for an asset associate with risk and computes a risk factor corresponding to each security property for every asset. The assets are classified into three different risk zones namely high, average and low risk zone. For utmost-risk assets, management may install high cost infrastructure to safeguard an asset; for average-risk assets, management may apply security policies, guidelines and procedures; for under risks management may invest very less for assets. In this paper a new method has been proposed to analyse and mitigate the potential problems in Distributed Banking System.

K. V. D. Kiran

2013-09-01

79

Reduction in reactor risk by the mitigation of accident consequences  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Approaches are examined to reducing the public risk from nuclear power reactors by the use of safety systems which would control the consequences of core meltdown accidents. The mechanisms which could lead to failure of the containment are identified. Engineered safety features are then described which would reduce the likelihood of containment failure or reduce the subsequent release of radioactivity to the environment. The potential for reducing risk is assessed and for some safety features is found to be significant. However, in order to realize a major reduction in risk, a systematic analysis of system interactions must be performed

80

INTERNAL AUDIT AND ITS APPROACH TO THE RISK MITIGATION  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This thesis is analyzing the modern role of the internal audit in corporate(mainly banking structures. It describes the changes made in the social role ofauditing during the years and emphasizes the internal audit´s risk managementfunction, rather than just control function. Attention is given to the methodology used,especially to the currently most widespread risk-based auditing approach. Also one ofthe most recent approaches to auditing – so called continuous auditing - is brieflydescribed and the possibilities of its implementation into the risk-based framework areoutlined.

VADIM BENEŠ

2012-01-01

81

Risk Analysis and Mitigation Plan in Software Development  

OpenAIRE

Software development, often encounter many unanticipated problems, resulting in projects falling behind on deadlines, releases, exceeding budgets and result in sub-standard products due to its complex nature. Although these problems cannot be totally eliminated, they can however be controlled by applying Risk Management Plan. This can help to deal with problems before they occur. Organisations who implement risk management plan have control over the overall management of the p...

Dr. Sheel Ghule

2014-01-01

82

INTERNAL AUDIT AND ITS APPROACH TO THE RISK MITIGATION  

OpenAIRE

This thesis is analyzing the modern role of the internal audit in corporate(mainly banking) structures. It describes the changes made in the social role ofauditing during the years and emphasizes the internal audit´s risk managementfunction, rather than just control function. Attention is given to the methodology used,especially to the currently most widespread risk-based auditing approach. Also one ofthe most recent approaches to auditing – so called continuous auditing - is brieflydescri...

VADIM BENEŠ

2012-01-01

83

Mitigating the effects of measurement noise on Granger causality  

Science.gov (United States)

Computing Granger causal relations among bivariate experimentally observed time series has received increasing attention over the past few years. Such causal relations, if correctly estimated, can yield significant insights into the dynamical organization of the system being investigated. Since experimental measurements are inevitably contaminated by noise, it is thus important to understand the effects of such noise on Granger causality estimation. The first goal of this paper is to provide an analytical and numerical analysis of this problem. Specifically, we show that, due to noise contamination, (1) spurious causality between two measured variables can arise and (2) true causality can be suppressed. The second goal of the paper is to provide a denoising strategy to mitigate this problem. Specifically, we propose a denoising algorithm based on the combined use of the Kalman filter theory and the expectation-maximization algorithm. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the denoising approach.

Nalatore, Hariharan; Ding, Mingzhou; Rangarajan, Govindan

2007-03-01

84

Mitigating the effects of measurement noise on Granger causality  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Computing Granger causal relations among bivariate experimentally observed time series has received increasing attention over the past few years. Such causal relations, if correctly estimated, can yield significant insights into the dynamical organization of the system being investigated. Since experimental measurements are inevitably contaminated by noise, it is thus important to understand the effects of such noise on Granger causality estimation. The first goal of this paper is to provide an analytical and numerical analysis of this problem. Specifically, we show that, due to noise contamination (1) spurious causality between two measured variables can arise and (2) true causality can be suppressed. The second goal of the paper is to provide a denoising strategy to mitigate this problem. Specifically, we propose a denoising algorithm based on the combined use of the Kalman filter theory and the expectation-maximization algorithm. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the denoising approach

85

Mitigating the effects of measurement noise on Granger causality  

CERN Document Server

Computing Granger causal relations among bivariate experimentally observed time series has received increasing attention over the past few years. Such causal relations, if correctly estimated, can yield significant insights into the dynamical organization of the system being investigated. Since experimental measurements are inevitably contaminated by noise, it is thus important to understand the effects of such noise on Granger causality estimation. The first goal of this paper is to provide an analytical and numerical analysis of this problem. Specifically, we show that, due to noise contamination, (1) spurious causality between two measured variables can arise and (2) true causality can be suppressed. The second goal of the paper is to provide a denoising strategy to mitigate this problem. Specifically, we propose a denoising algorithm based on the combined use of the Kalman filter theory and the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the den...

Nalatore, Hariharan; Ding, Mingzhou

2007-01-01

86

People are the problem and the solution: characterizing wildfire risk and risk mitigation in a wildland-urban intermix area in the Southern Gulf Islands  

OpenAIRE

People play an important role in both causing and mitigating risk in forest-urban intermix areas. We developed a wildfire risk assessment model that characterizes the nature and causes of wildfire risk and evaluates the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies for a wildland-urban intermix area in the southern Gulf Islands, British Columbia, Canada. The risk maps produced highlight the significance of both human-caused fire ignitions and residential developments’ vulnerability to wildfir...

Tutsch, Matthew Stephen

2009-01-01

87

Information and education as a basis of risk mitigation for the citizens of Catalonia  

Science.gov (United States)

The General Directorate for Civil Protection of the Catalan Government is in charge of the drawing up and validation of plans that identify risk and establish a joint system of response actions to minimize the consequences of damages caused by emergencies. The risks covered are natural (fire, snow, flooding, heat,...) and human (chemical industry, transport of dangerous goods,...) ones. In the special case of flooding, an Emergency Flood Plan for Catalonia (INUNCAT) exists. Its aim is to minimize the effects and damages to people, property or the environment due to floods within the region of Catalonia. In the following, the actions on active prevention currently realized by Civil Protection in this Mediterranean region regarding risk mitigation of flooding are described. Special emphasis is laid on the prevention of risk situations through advanced information and education which aim at diminishing the vulnerability of the population. The preparedness of the population to face a serious flooding depends highly on the level of the citizens’ self-protection. Therefore the collection and dissemination of recommendations on adequate behaviour is crucial. The Catalan Government realizes different activities to foster the understanding and the correct behaviour of the citizens in case of flooding. Informative sessions to target groups, opinion studies, mass media communication and itinerant exhibitions are some of the elements applied to increase social consciousness and mitigate the vulnerability of the population. Among these, sensitization campaigns play a crucial role. A coherent system of information and education is adhered to these campaigns. Informative material (posters, leaflets, web sites) and sessions are part of the activities which are addressed to different social group and aim at rising the population’s awareness on the risk of flooding. Multidisciplinary presentations and expert speeches on adequate behaviour are given to stakeholders in those areas which are potentially affected by flooding or which are situated downriver of big water reservoirs. These stakeholders act as multipliers to pass on the recommendations emitted by the Catalan Government. Mass communication is a means of reaching a wide part of the population. TV spots, radio announcements and newspaper advertisements on correct behaviour in a certain emergency do already exist for certain risks, but are still missing in the case of flooding. The realization of opinion studies contribute to a better understanding of the citizens’ risk perception. The opinion study includes questions like: What do you know about recommendations on behaviour during flooding? or What would you do if you found themselves in an emergency? When contrasting the results, the effectiveness of existing campaigns is put on proof and the content and canal of future campaigns can be determined. The General Directorate for Civil Protection has created an itinerant exhibition as an additional activity to increase the populations’ consciousness on the potential risks in the Mediterranean region of Catalonia. It includes the main preventive measures the citizens have to take in case of an emergency and depicts recommendations for self-protection. The exhibition is displayed at municipal level and is designated to approach the maximum number of citizens. The participation in European projects, such as RINAMED, is a way to increase the interchange of know-how and strengthen international communication. In the case of RINAMED the objective was to provide the citizens living in the Mediterranean areas with a better knowledge of the natural risks. The joint effort of the different member regions contributed to establish a common frame of prevention and information in order to increase risk preparedness in the Mediterranean area. For future improvement and advances regarding educational and informative tasks, one of the aims is to obtain direct involvement of the population and to reach specific target groups through opinion leaders. Moreover the need to build partnership or stre

Guamis, J.; Burckhart, K.; Grau, A.

2009-09-01

88

Cloud computing in pharmaceutical R&D: business risks and mitigations.  

Science.gov (United States)

Cloud computing provides information processing power and business services, delivering these services over the Internet from centrally hosted locations. Major technology corporations aim to supply these services to every sector of the economy. Deploying business processes 'in the cloud' requires special attention to the regulatory and business risks assumed when running on both hardware and software that are outside the direct control of a company. The identification of risks at the correct service level allows a good mitigation strategy to be selected. The pharmaceutical industry can take advantage of existing risk management strategies that have already been tested in the finance and electronic commerce sectors. In this review, the business risks associated with the use of cloud computing are discussed, and mitigations achieved through knowledge from securing services for electronic commerce and from good IT practice are highlighted. PMID:20443161

Geiger, Karl

2010-05-01

89

Supply Chain Risk Management : Identification, Evaluation and Mitigation Techniques  

OpenAIRE

Supply chains have expanded rapidly over the decades, with the aim to increase productivity, lower costs and fulfil demands in emerging markets. The increasing complexity in a supply chain hinders visibility and consequently reduces one’s control over the process. Cases of disruption such as the ones faced by Ericsson and Enron, have shown that a risk event occurring at one point of the supply chain can greatly affect other members, when the disruption is not properly controlled. Supply cha...

Musa, S. Nurmaya

2012-01-01

90

COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES: COMMUNITY DISASTER KNOWLEDGE, SOCIAL CAPITAL, PREPAREDNESS AND MITIGATION MEASURES ENHANCE COASTAL COMMUNITY RESILIENCE TO NATURAL DISASTERS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This paper describes the strategies for enhancing resilience of a coastal community to natural disasters by effective disaster preparedness and mitigation measures. It elaborates the importance of capacity building and improved infrastructure performance. Participatory Disaster Risk Assessment (PDRA is emphasised to understand the diverse vulnerabilities and resilience of the coastal communities. This paper presents a unique approach to integrate the existing capacities, capacities required and important social and economic activities with the key strategies of community disaster resilience. The study focuses on enhancement of community knowledge in disaster management, community social capital, integrated disaster management plan, preparedness and recovery and disaster mitigation measures implemented in the coastal villages for effectively managing the disaster situations. There is a greater emphasis on the need for involving multisectoral and multidisciplinary sections of the community in in disaster preparedness and capacities required for minimizing social and economic impact which will further help in developing mitigation strategies.

S. James

2014-09-01

91

Uses of risk importance measures  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Risk importance measures provide an understandable and practical way of presenting probabilistic safety analysis results which too often tend to remain abstract numbers without real insight into the content. The report clarifies the definitions, relationships and interpretations of the three most basic measures: Risk increase factor, risk decrease factor, and fractional contribution. The above three measures already cover the main types of risk importance measures. Many other importance measures presented in literature are close variants to some of these three measures. They are related in many cases so that, for a technical system considered, the two other measures can be derived from the one calculated first. However, the practical interpretations are different, and hence each three measures have their own uses and rights to existence. The fundamental aspect of importance measures is, that they express some specific influence of a basic event on the total risk. The basic failure or error events are the elements from which the reliability and risk models are constituted. The importance measures are relative, which is an advantage compared to absolute risk numbers, due to insensitivity with respect to quantification uncertainties. Therefore they are particularly adapted to give first hand guidance where to focus main interest from the system's risk and reliability point of view and wherefrom to continue the analysis with more sophisticated methods requiring more effort

92

An Efficient Approach towards Mitigating Soft Errors Risks  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Smaller feature size, higher clock frequency and lower power consumption are of core concerns of today’snano-technology, which has been resulted by continuous downscaling of CMOS technologies. The resultant‘device shrinking’ reduces the soft error tolerance of the VLSI circuits, as very little energy is needed tochange their states. Safety critical systems are very sensitive to soft errors. A bit flip due to soft error canchange the value of critical variable and consequently the system control flow can completely be changedwhich leads to system failure. To minimize soft error risks, a novel methodology is proposed to detect andrecover from soft errors considering only ‘critical code blocks’ and ‘critical variables’ rather thanconsidering all variables and/or blocks in the whole program. The proposed method shortens space andtime overhead in comparison to existing dominant approaches.

Muhammad Sheikh Sadi

2011-10-01

93

Cyanotoxin management and human health risk mitigation in recreational waters.  

Science.gov (United States)

The occurrence and severity of harmful cyanobacterial or blue-green algal blooms (HABs) have increased in recent decades, posing a serious threat of illness to humans. In some countries, water contaminated with cyanotoxins that is used for drinking or haemodialysis has posed a particularly serious risk. However, it is now recognized that recreational exposure to natural toxins by skin contact, accidental swallowing of water or inhalation can also cause a wide range of acute or chronic illnesses. In this review, we focus on the importance of cyanotoxin management in recreational waters. The symptoms related with HAB poisonings, the recommended safety concentrations limit for cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins in such waters, as well as early health hazard indicators of their presence and their monitoring are all discussed. We also present in this review an overview of the methods developed in recent decades for eliminating cyanobacteria and the toxic compounds that they produce. PMID:24664523

Koreivien?, Judita; Anne, Olga; Kasperovi?ien?, J?rat?; Burškyt?, Vilma

2014-07-01

94

An Efficient Approach towards Mitigating Soft Errors Risks  

CERN Document Server

Smaller feature size, higher clock frequency and lower power consumption are of core concerns of today's nano-technology, which has been resulted by continuous downscaling of CMOS technologies. The resultant 'device shrinking' reduces the soft error tolerance of the VLSI circuits, as very little energy is needed to change their states. Safety critical systems are very sensitive to soft errors. A bit flip due to soft error can change the value of critical variable and consequently the system control flow can completely be changed which leads to system failure. To minimize soft error risks, a novel methodology is proposed to detect and recover from soft errors considering only 'critical code blocks' and 'critical variables' rather than considering all variables and/or blocks in the whole program. The proposed method shortens space and time overhead in comparison to existing dominant approaches.

Sadi, Muhammad Sheikh; Uddin, Md Nazim; Jürjens, Jan

2011-01-01

95

A multiple stage approach to mitigate the risks of telecommunication equipment under free air cooling conditions  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Highlights: ? Analyze the challenges posed by free air cooling (FAC). ? Present a multi-stage process to mitigate the risks of FAC. ? Propose a prognostics-based method to mitigate risks in data centers in operation. ? Present a case study to show the prognostics-based method implementation. - Abstract: The telecommunication industry is concerned about the energy costs of its operating infrastructure and the associated greenhouse gas emissions. At present, more than half of the total energy consumption of data centers is devoted to the power and cooling infrastructure that supports electronic equipment. One method of reducing energy consumption is an approach called “free air cooling,” where ambient air is used to cool the equipment directly, thereby reducing the energy consumed in cooling and conditioning the air. For example, Intel demonstrated free air cooling in a 10-megawatt (MW) data center, showing a reduction in energy use and savings of US$2.87 million annually. However, the impacts of this approach on the performance and reliability of telecommunication equipment need to be identified. The implementation of free air cooling changes the operating environment, including temperature and humidity, which may have a significant impact on the performance and reliability of telecom equipment. This paper discusses the challenges posed by free air cooling and presents a multi-stage process for evaluating and mitigating the potential risks arising from thisential risks arising from this new operating environment.

96

Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations  

Science.gov (United States)

An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.

2010-01-01

97

Cost-effective alternatives for mitigating Cryptosporidium risk in drinking water and enhancing ecosystem services  

Science.gov (United States)

Under the multibarrier paradigm, water quality management barriers that mitigate risk to consumers are required at multiple points from the catchment to the tap. We present a cost-effectiveness analysis of 13 catchment- and treatment-based management alternatives for mitigating Cryptosporidium risk in the Myponga water supply catchment, South Australia. A broad range of costs and benefits are identified and valued, including setup, operation and maintenance, and opportunity costs, and benefits for ecosystem services including water quality, biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and farm production services. The results suggest that the cost-effectiveness of investment in water quality management can be substantially enhanced by considering the costs of management and the benefits for ecosystem services, in addition to Cryptosporidium removal effectiveness. Cost-effectiveness of investment in management alternatives is dependent upon the desired level of Cryptosporidium removal effectiveness by both the catchment and treatment barriers. The combination of a spatially targeted 25% restriction in water course access of nondairy cattle and treatment by enhanced coagulation provides the most (net) cost-effective Cryptosporidium risk mitigation strategy. This combination may achieve 0.614 log removal at a net cost of A0.7 million and (net) cost-effectiveness of A1.14 million per log removal. Additional risk mitigation can be achieved through the addition of ultraviolet irradiation treatment, higher levels of water course access restriction for cattle, and the adoption of dung beetles in the catchment. Economic valuation of a range of costs and benefits of management priorities can support cost-effective water quality management investment decisions and inform elements of policy design such as cost-sharing arrangements and spatial targeting.

Bryan, B. A.; Kandulu, J. M.

2009-08-01

98

Airflow measurement techniques applied to radon mitigation problems  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

During the past decade a multitude of diagnostic procedures associated with the evaluation of air infiltration and air leakage sites have been developed. The spirit of international cooperation and exchange of ideas within the AIC-AIVC conferences has greatly facilitated the adoption and use of these measurement techniques in the countries participating in Annex V. But wide application of such diagnostic methods are not limited to air infiltration alone. The subject of this paper concerns the ways to evaluate and improve radon reduction in buildings using diagnostic methods directly related to developments familiar to the AIVC. Radon problems are certainly not unique to the United States, and the methods described here have to a degree been applied by researchers of other countries faced with similar problems. The radon problem involves more than a harmful pollutant of the living spaces of our buildings -- it also involves energy to operate radon removal equipment and the loss of interior conditioned air as a direct result. The techniques used for air infiltration evaluation will be shown to be very useful in dealing with the radon mitigation challenge. 10 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab

99

RISK MANAGEMENT MEASURES IN CMMI  

OpenAIRE

Risk management is a continuous process that could endanger the objectives of a project or application.Risks are handled to reduce and avoid threats effects on the objectives of the project. The sources of riskare both internal and external to the project. This research will identify general measures for the specificgoal and its specific practices of Risk Management Process Area (PA) in Capability Maturity ModelIntegration (CMMI). CMMI is developed by Software Engineering Institute (SEI) in C...

Mahmoud Khraiwesh

2012-01-01

100

Uncertainty Quantification and Risk Mitigation of CO2 Leakage in Groundwater Aquifers  

Science.gov (United States)

The risk of CO2 leakage into shallow aquifers through various pathways such as faults and abandoned wells is a concern of CO2 geological sequestration. If a leak is detected in an aquifer system, a contingency plan is required to manage the CO2 storage and to protect the groundwater source. Among many remediation and mitigation strategies, the simplest is to stop CO2 leakage at a wellbore. Therefore, it is necessary to address whether and when the CO2 leaks should be sealed, and how much risk can be mitigated. In the presence of various uncertainties, including geological-structure uncertainty and parametric uncertainty, the risk of CO2 leakage into an aquifer needs to be assessed with probabilistic distributions of uncertain parameters. In this study, we developed an integrated model to simulate multiphase flow of CO2 and brine in a deep storage reservoir, through a leaky well at an uncertain location, and subsequently multicomponent reactive transport in a shallow aquifer. Each sub-model covers its domain-specific physics. Uncertainties of geological structure and parameters are considered together with decision variables (CO2 injection rate and mitigation time) for risk assessment of leakage-impacted aquifer volume. High-resolution and less-expensive reduced-order models (ROMs) of risk profiles are approximated as polynomial functions of decision variables and all uncertain parameters. These reduced-order models are then used in the place of computationally-expensive numerical models for future decision-making on if and when the leaky well is sealed. The tradeoff between CO2 storage capacity in the reservoir and the leakage-induced risk in the aquifer is evaluated. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Sun, Y.; Tong, C.; Mansoor, K.; Carroll, S.

2013-12-01

101

Early Intervention Following Trauma May Mitigate Genetic Risk for PTSD in Civilians: A Pilot Prospective Emergency Department Study  

Science.gov (United States)

Background Civilian posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and combat PTSD are major public health concerns. Although a number of psychosocial risk factors have been identified related to PTSD risk, there are no accepted, robust biological predictors that identify who will develop PTSD or who will respond to early intervention following trauma. We wished to examine whether genetic risk for PTSD can be mitigated with an early intervention. Method 65 emergency department patients recruited in 2009–2010 at Grady Memorial Hospital in Atlanta, Georgia, who met criterion A of DSM-IV PTSD received either 3 sessions of an exposure intervention, beginning in the emergency department shortly after trauma exposure or assessment only. PTSD symptoms were assessed 4 and 12 weeks after trauma exposure. A composite additive risk score was derived from polymorphisms in 10 previously identified genes associated with stress-response (ADCYAP1R1, COMT, CRHR1, DBH, DRD2, FAAH, FKBP5, NPY, NTRK2, and PCLO), and gene x treatment effects were examined. The intervention included 3 sessions of imaginal exposure to the trauma memory and additional exposure homework. The primary outcome measure was the PTSD Symptom Scale-Interview Version or DSM-IV–based PTSD diagnosis in patients related to genotype and treatment group. Results A gene x intervention x time effect was detected for individual polymorphisms, in particular the PACAP receptor, ADCYAP1R1, as well as with a combined genotype risk score created from independent SNP markers. Subjects who did not receive treatment had higher symptoms than those who received intervention. Furthermore, subjects with the “risk” genotypes who did not receive intervention had higher PTSD symptoms compared to those with the “low-risk” or “resilience” genotypes or those who received intervention. Additionally, PTSD symptoms correlated with level of genetic risk at week 12 (P education, income, and childhood trauma. Using logistic regression, the number of risk alleles was significantly associated with likelihood of PTSD diagnosis at week 12 (P < .05). Conclusions This pilot prospective study suggests that combined genetic variants may serve to predict those most at risk for developing PTSD following trauma. A psychotherapeutic intervention initiated in the emergency department within hours of the trauma may mitigate this risk. The role of genetic predictors of risk and resilience should be further evaluated in larger, prospective intervention and prevention trials. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00895518 PMID:25188543

Rothbaum, Barbara O.; Kearns, Megan C.; Reiser, Emily; Davis, Jennifer S.; Kerley, Kimberly A.; Rothbaum, Alex O.; Mercer, Kristina B.; Price, Matthew; Houry, Debra; Ressler, Kerry J.

2015-01-01

102

SILER: Seismic-Initiated events risk mitigation in Lead-cooled Reactors  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

SILER is a Collaborative Project, partially funded by the European Commission, aimed at studying the risk associated to seismic initiated events in Generation IV Heavy Liquid Metal reactors and developing adequate protection measures. The attention is focused on the evaluation of the effects of earthquakes (with particular regards to beyond design seismic events) and to the identification of mitigation strategies, acting both on structures and components design (as well as on the development of seismic isolation devices) which can also have positive effects on economics, leading to an high level of plant design standardization. Attention is also devoted to the identification of plant layout solutions able to avoid risks of radioactive release from both the core and other structures (i.e. the spent fuel storage pools). Specific effort is paid to the development of guidelines and design recommendations for addressing the seismic issue in next generation reactor systems. In addition, consideration will be devoted to transfer the knowledge developed in the project to Generation III advanced systems, in line with the objective of the SNE-TP SRA to support present and future Light Water Reactors and their further development, for which safety issues are key aspects to be addressed. Note, in this respect, that the benefits of base isolation in terms of response to design seismic actions are already widely recognized for Generation III LWRs, along with the possibility of a significant standardization of structural and equipment design. SILER activities started on October 1 st 2011 and are carried out by 18 partners: ENEA (Italy, Coordinator), AREVA NP SAS (France), SCK-CEN (Belgium), FIP Industriale (Italy), MAURER SOHENE (Germany), EC-JRC (Ispra (Italy)), SINTEC (Italy), KTH (Sweden), BOA-BKT (Germany), IDOM (Spain), ANSALDO (Italy), IPUL (Latvia), NUMERIA (Italy), VCE (Austria), SRS (Italy), CEA (France), EA (Spain), NUVIA (France). (authors)

Forni, M. [ENEA, Via Martin di Monte Sole 4, 40129 Bologna (Italy); De Grandis, S. [SINTEC, Via Santo Stefano 20, 40125 Bologna (Italy)

2012-07-01

103

SILER: Seismic-Initiated events risk mitigation in Lead-cooled Reactors  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

SILER is a Collaborative Project, partially funded by the European Commission, aimed at studying the risk associated to seismic initiated events in Generation IV Heavy Liquid Metal reactors and developing adequate protection measures. The attention is focused on the evaluation of the effects of earthquakes (with particular regards to beyond design seismic events) and to the identification of mitigation strategies, acting both on structures and components design (as well as on the development of seismic isolation devices) which can also have positive effects on economics, leading to an high level of plant design standardization. Attention is also devoted to the identification of plant layout solutions able to avoid risks of radioactive release from both the core and other structures (i.e. the spent fuel storage pools). Specific effort is paid to the development of guidelines and design recommendations for addressing the seismic issue in next generation reactor systems. In addition, consideration will be devoted to transfer the knowledge developed in the project to Generation III advanced systems, in line with the objective of the SNE-TP SRA to support present and future Light Water Reactors and their further development, for which safety issues are key aspects to be addressed. Note, in this respect, that the benefits of base isolation in terms of response to design seismic actions are already widely recognized for Generation III LWRs, along with the possibility of a siI LWRs, along with the possibility of a significant standardization of structural and equipment design. SILER activities started on October 1 st 2011 and are carried out by 18 partners: ENEA (Italy, Coordinator), AREVA NP SAS (France), SCK-CEN (Belgium), FIP Industriale (Italy), MAURER SOHENE (Germany), EC-JRC (Ispra (Italy)), SINTEC (Italy), KTH (Sweden), BOA-BKT (Germany), IDOM (Spain), ANSALDO (Italy), IPUL (Latvia), NUMERIA (Italy), VCE (Austria), SRS (Italy), CEA (France), EA (Spain), NUVIA (France). (authors)

104

Political risks of transnational petroleum investment: the mitigating role of national and international insurance programmes  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

As in the case of all foreign investments in general, political risk has been one of the more serious inhibiting factors in petroleum operations by transnational companies. In practice, however, these risks can be significantly mitigated or eliminated altogether through the insurance programmes which are normally available to all foreign investors. This article reviews the petroleum activities of some of such programmes, notably those sponsored by the US Federal Government under the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) and, more recently, by the World Bank under its newly created Multilateral Investment Corporation Agency (MIGA).

Zakariya, H.S.

1987-01-01

105

Knowledge Sharing and Collaboration in Volcanic Risk Mitigation at Galeras Volcano, Colombia: A Participative Workshop to Reduce Volcanic Risk  

Science.gov (United States)

Galeras has been in nearly constant activity during modern historic times (roughly the past 500 years). Approximately 10,000 people live within an area designated as the highest-hazard and nearly 400,000 people are within areas of potential harmful effects. A wide variety of stakeholders are affected by the hazards, including: farmers, indigenous villagers, and people in urban environments. Hazards assessment and volcano monitoring are the responsibility of the Colombian Geological Survey (INGEOMINAS), whereas decisions regarding mitigation and response procedures are the responsibility of various governmental offices and the national emergency system (SNPAD). According to the current plan, when the risk level rises to a high level the people in the highest risk zone are required to evacuate. The volcano currently is in a very active, but fluctuating, condition and a future large eruption in a medium time frame (years to decades) is possible. There is a growing level of discomfort among many of the affected groups, including indigenous communities, farmers, and urban dwellers, related to the risk assessment. The general opinion prior to July 2009 was quite polarized as the decision makers saw the people of the region as poorly prepared to understand this hazard, whereas the population felt that their views were not being heard. The result was that the people in the hazardous areas decided not to evacuate, even during the current period of explosive activity. To resolve this situation the University of Nariño (Colombia) and the State University of New York at Buffalo organized a workshop named "Knowledge, Sharing and Collaboration in Volcanic Risk Mitigation at Galeras Volcano, Colombia" that was held in Pasto (Colombia), between 6 and 11 July, 2009. The general objective of this workshop was to analyze the existing hazard maps and safety plans for Galeras and form a bridge connecting scientists, decision makers, and other stake holders to promote a better understanding of the hazards presented by Galeras and the measures needed for mutual understanding and protection of people and property in the potentially threatened areas. Progress towards developing trust was achieved by requiring all the parties, including technicians, scientists, administrators and even farmers and indigenous people to listen to each others’ perceptions thought the entire week of the workshop. On the final day of the meeting a roundtable dialogue between the conflicting parts was moderated by social scientists. This intercourse identified, in a consensual manner, points of agreement to serve as starting positions for finding solutions to the areas of conflict. Irresolvable points were also identified during this roundtable discussion. The workshop showed that by sharing information within the framework of a full and frank communication, accepting (or at least listening to) each others’ arguments and trying to understand different points of view and served as a framework for an ongoing process of dialogue focused on resolving conflicts between the various stakeholder groups, even though they had previously reached the point of radicalized positions and statements.

Sheridan, M. F.; Cordoba, G. A.

2009-12-01

106

Measuring downside risk - realised semivariance  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

We propose a new measure of risk, based entirely on downwards moves measured using high frequency data. Realised semivariances are shown to have important predictive qualities for future market volatility. The theory of these new measures is spelt out, drawing on some new results from probability theory.

Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Kinnebrock, Silja

2008-01-01

107

Flood risk and mitigation strategies in the southeastern suburbs of Fez City (Morocco  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The risk of flooding in the south-eastern suburbs of Fez (Morocco was engendered by multiple factors (topographic, hydro-climatic, land use, social, technical. This study focuses on the Aouinate El Hajjaj district and shows that the district’s evolution, characterized by informal transactions (speculation, land squatting, construction without respect of norms and regulations was a major factor in the genesis of flood risk as the district extended into vulnerable sectors. Public efforts to resolve the district’s crisis and reinforce its environmental safety began in 1993 (2 dams and channels were constructed, street were paved and basic facilities were provided, such as drinking water, sanitation and electricity, but the risk factors persist. Technical solutions are locally recognized to be useful, but they are not sufficient. Other mitigating actions including the reduction of physical and socioeconomic vulnerability and the strengthening of the social structure of the community should be considered in a systemic point of view. They constitute elements of an alternative strategy in urban planning and development and must be framed by laws and regulations. Their use could be undertaken at individual, community and State levels depending on the specific dimension of each measure. A vision which integrates local and regional scales is essential in risk studies, in order to design a more sustainable action. The role of non-governmental organisations is important in flood mitigation and urban environmental policy. The incorporation of flood prevention as a parameter of urban planning should be considered by planners and the local population.En los suburbios del sudeste de Fez (Marruecos el riesgo de inundaciones responde a fenómenos de diversa naturaleza física y humana (topográficos, hidrológicos, climáticos, utilización del suelo, factores sociales y técnicos. En este trabajo se analiza la situación del distrito de Aouinate El Hajjaj, en donde diferentes procesos derivados de la ocupación de este espacio (especulación, proliferación de asentamientos informales, edificación sin respeto a las normas y reglamentos… han constituido factores decisivos en la génesis de los riesgos de inundación que actualmente afectan a la zona. Aunque los esfuerzos públicos para resolver la crisis del distrito y reforzar su seguridad frente a las adversidades del medio natural comenzaron en 1993 (construcción de dos presas y de canales, pavimentado de calles, dotación y mejora de los equipamientos básicos como el abastecimiento de agua potable y de electricidad, obras de saneamiento, etc., los factores de riesgo aún persisten. Las soluciones técnicas aplicadas han sido reconocidas por su utilidad, pero es necesario trabajar en otros ámbitos, como la reducción de la vulnerabilidad física, social y ambiental, y en el reforzamiento de la estructura social de la comunidad, lo que permitiría abordar el problema desde un punto de vista sistémico. Todos ellos constituyen los elementos de una estrategia alternativa en la planificación y el desarrollo urbano que deben ser enmarcadas por leyes y reglamentos. Su uso podría llevarse a cabo a nivel individual, comunitario y estatal —en función de la dimensión específica de cada caso—, con el fin de fomentar una estrategia de integración entre las escalas locales y regionales que contribuya a concebir acciones más sostenibles en los estudios de mitigación de los riesgos ambientales. Así mismo, el papel de las organizaciones no gubernamentales es importante en esta cuestión, y la política medioambiental, las acciones de los diferentes agentes que intervienen en el planeamiento urbano y la población local, deben estar sensibilizados y comprometidos con las estrategias para la prevención de inundaciones. [fr] Le risque d’inondation dans les banlieues du Sud-Est de la ville de Fez (Maroc sont produits par des facteurs multiples (topographiques, hydro-climatiques, relatifs aux usages du sol, sociaux, techniques. L’étude vise le district d’A

Akdim, Brahim

2013-12-01

108

Hydraulic analysis of measures for flood mitigation in floodplain  

Science.gov (United States)

The question of possible flood control and flood mitigation measures and their effects is still challenging. While the effect of purely technical flood control measures such as dams or levees is sufficiently described by using any of widely spread or more specific models, the effectiveness of close-to-nature ones (river restoration, appropriate land use, landscape structure regeneration, etc.) is not adequately verified and quantified. On that account, the benefits and feasibility of integration of the natural potential of floodplains to absorb and transform flood wave is being discussed. In addition, there are many side benefits of close-to-nature measures which are hard to evaluate and include into decision making processes. This contribution presents a part of the study related to river and floodplain restoration and revitalization measures in catchments and their flood-control effect. In the study the possibilities of using one-dimensional (HEC-RAS) and two-dimensional hydraulic mathematical models (FAST2D, DIFEM2D) of steady and unsteady flow for estimation of transformation effects of a floodplain were compared. The comparison of used models was made with respect to computed results and also to the availability of input data, mathematical stability, processes and accuracy demands and time requirements. The above mentioned methods of hydraulic modelling were applied to three case study localities in the Czech Republic. The parts of river channels and their floodplain differ in terms of morphology, river channel form and training situation and land-use. Case study areas were selected to represent the main types of floodplains within the Czech Republic for their further classification related to flood wave transformation potential. The transformation effect is compared not only for the natural state of the floodplain, but also for various theoretical scenarios in each locality. Keywords Hydraulic modelling, flood control, floodplain, storage capacity, river restoration Acknowledgement This paper was created within the project NIVA "Water Retention in Floodplains and Ways of Increasing Water Retention" QH82078, and within Research Project No. MSM6840770002 "Revitalization of water system of the landscape and urban areas under heavy anthropogenic changes" and supported by the Grant Agency of the Czech Technical University in Prague, grant No. SGS10/240/OHK1/3T/11.

Valentova, J.; Valenta, P.; Weyskrabova, L.; Dostal, T.

2012-04-01

109

Soil bio-engineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on authochtonal plants suitable for this kind of works and on economic efficiency is essential for the divulgation of such techniques. The present paper is focused on this two issues related to the realization of various typologies of soil bio-engineering works in the humid tropic of Nicaragua.



In the area of Río Blanco, located in the Department of Matagalpa, soil bio-engineering installations were built in several sites. The particular structures built were: drainages with live fascine mattress, a live palisade, a vegetated live crib wall for riverbank protection, a vegetative covering made of a metallic net and biotextile coupled with a live palisade made of bamboo. In order to evaluate the suitability of the various plants used in the works, monitorings were performed, one in the live palisade alongside an unpaved road and the other on the live crib wall along a riverbank, collecting survival rate and morphological parameters data. Concerning the economic efficiency we proceed to a financial analysis of the works and once the unit price was obtained, we converted the amount in EPP Dollars (Equal Purchasing Power in order to compare the Nicaraguan context with the Italian one.



Among the used species we found that Madero negro (Gliricidia sepium and Roble macuelizo (Tabebuia rosea are adequate for soil-bioengineering measure on slopes while Helequeme (Erythrina fusca reported a successful behaviour only in the crib wall for riverbank protection.



In the comparison of the costs in Nicaragua and in Italy, the unit price reduction for the Central American country ranges between 1.5 times (for the vegetative covering and almost 4 times (for the fascine mattress if it's used the EPP dollar exchange rate.



Conclusions are reached with regard to hydrological-risk mitigating actions performed on a basin scale and through naturalistic (live interventions: not only are they socially and technically attainable, even in hardship areas (by maximizing the contribution of the local labor force and minimizing the use of mechanical equipment, but they are also economically sustainable.

A. Petrone

2009-07-01

110

Soil bioengineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on the autochthonal plants suitable for these kinds of interventions and on the economic efficiency of the interventions is essential for the dissemination of such techniques. The present paper is focused on these two issues as related to the realization of various typologies of soil bioengineering works in the humid tropics of Nicaragua.

In the area of Río Blanco, located in the Department of Matagalpa, soil bioengineering installations were built in several sites. The particular structures built were: drainages with live fascine mattress, a live palisade, a vegetated live crib wall for riverbank protection, a vegetative covering made of a metallic net and biotextile coupled with a live palisade made of bamboo. In order to evaluate the suitability of the various plants used in these works, monitoring was performed, one on the live palisade alongside an unpaved road and the other on the live crib wall along a riverbank, by collecting data on survival rate and morphological parameters. Concerning economic efficiency, we proceeded to a financial analysis of the works. Once the unit price was obtained, we converted the amount into EPP Dollars (Equal Purchasing Power in order to compare the Nicaraguan context with the European one.

Among the species used we found that Gliricidia sepium (local common name: Madero negro and Tabebuia rosea (local common name: Roble macuelizo are adequate for soil bioengineering measures on slopes, while Erythrina fusca (local common name: Helequeme resulted in successful behaviour only in the crib wall for riverbank protection.

In comparing costs in Nicaragua and in Italy, the unit price reduction for Nicaragua ranges from 1.5 times (for the vegetative covering to almost 4 times (for the fascine mattress, using the EPP dollar exchange rate.

Our conclusions with regard to hydrological-risk mitigating actions performed on a basin scale and through naturalistic (live interventions are that they are not only socially and technically possible, even in hardship areas (by maximizing the contribution of the local labour force and minimizing the use of mechanical equipment, but also economically sustainable.

A. Petrone

2010-02-01

111

Managing soil natural capital: An effective strategy for mitigating future agricultural risks?  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Uncontrollable events such as adverse weather and volatile prices present considerable risks for arable farmers. Soil natural capital, which views the capacity of soil biodiversity to generate ecosystem services as a component of farm capital, could be important for the stability and resilience of arable production systems. We investigate therefore whether managing soil natural capital could be an effective strategy for mitigating future agricultural risks. We do this by constructing a dynamic stochastic portfolio model to optimize the stock of soil organic carbon (SOC)—our indicator of soil natural capital—when considering both the risks and returns from farming. SOC is controlled via the spatial and temporal allocation of cash crops and an illustrative replenishing land use. We find that higher soil natural capital buffers yield variance against adverse weather and reduces reliance on external inputs. Managing soil natural capital has therefore the potential to mitigate two serious agricultural risks: energy price shocks and adverse weather events, both of which are likely to be exacerbated in the future due to, e.g., globalization and climate change.

Cong, Ronggang; Hedlund, Katarina

2014-01-01

112

Assessing and mitigating risks of engineering programs with lean management techniques  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

This paper investigates the use of lean management techniques as a risk mitigation approach for large-scale engineering programs. The key research questions are how lean best practices with the highest risk mitigation potential are identified, how the most relevant lean best practices for a specific program are identified and how the effort for implementation of these lean best practices is estimated. Large-scale engineering programs have as results usually complex technical products or systems such as airplanes, satellites (GPS) or software programs, immense infrastructure efforts like the construction of a new airport, highway or bridge, or combine elements of both technology and infrastructure. The benefits they deliver are therefore immense and sometimes even groundbreaking, defining new levels of capabilities. But their sheer size and the built-in complexity also manifest themselves in higher risks, which can lead to significant cost-overruns and large delays in schedule [Oehmen et al. 2012, Cantarelli et al. 2010, Flyvbjerg et al. 2003, GAO 2006]. Program success depends on four dimensions: delivery capability, organizational capability, marketing capability and innovative capability [Shao and Müller 2011, Shao et al. 2012]. To incorporate these capabilities and to manage the obviously difficult entity of a program, a variety of standards and guidance books have been published. The two most prominent ones are Managing Successful Programs (MSP) and The Standard for Program Management by the Project Management Institute (PMI), that both include Risk Management as a focal activity [MSP 2011, PMI 2013].

Fritz, A.; Oehmen, Josef

2014-01-01

113

RISK MANAGEMENT MEASURES IN CMMI  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Risk management is a continuous process that could endanger the objectives of a project or application.Risks are handled to reduce and avoid threats effects on the objectives of the project. The sources of riskare both internal and external to the project. This research will identify general measures for the specificgoal and its specific practices of Risk Management Process Area (PA in Capability Maturity ModelIntegration (CMMI. CMMI is developed by Software Engineering Institute (SEI in Carnegie MellonUniversity in USA. CMMI is a framework for improvement and assessment of computer informationsystems. The method we used to define the measures is to apply the Goal Questions Metrics (GQMparadigm to the specific goals and its specific practices of Risk Management Process Area in CMMI.

Mahmoud Khraiwesh

2012-02-01

114

Risk evaluation and mitigation strategy programs in solid organ transplantation: the promises of information technology.  

Science.gov (United States)

Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) required by the Food and Drug Administration are implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with medications and to ensure ongoing safe use throughout the life of a pharmaceutical agent. Healthcare organizations have begun to adopt information technologies with clinical decision support (CDS) to ensure safe use of medications. Systems have been expanded and customized to also ensure compliance with regulatory standards. End users who are unfamiliar with particular medication use provisions are at risk of unknowingly inappropriately fulfilling specific components. Institution-specific customization of vendor-provided CDS is useful to enhance provider awareness and ensure compliance with standards. Integration of health information technology systems to fulfill REMS requirements is novel and important to ensure consistency as healthcare standards evolve. PMID:24573422

Tsapepas, Demetra S; McKeen, Jaclyn T; Martin, Spencer T; Walker-McDermott, Jennifer K; Yang, Alex; Hirsch, Jamie; Mohan, Sumit; Tiwari, Ruchi

2014-10-01

115

Observational Studies of Earthquake Preparation and Generation to Mitigate Seismic Risks in Mines  

Science.gov (United States)

We provide a status report on a 5-year project to monitor in-situ fault instability and strong motion in South African gold mines. The project has two main aims: (1) To learn more about earthquake preparation and generation mechanisms by deploying dense arrays of high-sensitivity sensors within rock volumes where mining is likely to induce significant seismic activity. (2) To upgrade the South African national surface seismic network in the mining districts. This knowledge will contribute to efforts to upgrade schemes of seismic hazard assessment and to limit and mitigate the seismic risks in deep mines. As of 31 July 2011, 46 boreholes totalling 1.9 km in length had been drilled at project sites at Ezulwini, Moab-Khotsong and Driefontein gold mines. Several dozen more holes are still to be drilled. Acoustic emission sensors, strain- and tiltmeters, and controlled seismic sources are being installed to monitor the deformation of the rock mass, the accumulation of damage during the preparation phase, and changes in dynamic stress as the rupture front propagates. These data will be integrated with measurements of stope closure, stope strong motion, seismic data recorded by the mine-wide network, and stress modelling. Preliminary results will be reported at AGU meeting. The project is endorsed by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST), Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and the South African government. It is funded by the JST-JICA program for Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable development (SATREPS, the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), the Council for Geoscience, the University of the Witwatersrand and the Department of Science and Technology. The contributions of Seismogen CC, OHMS Ltd, AnglogoldAshanti Rock Engineering Applied Research Group, First Uranium, the Gold Fields Seismic Department and the Institute of Mine Seismology are gratefully acknowledged.

Durrheim, R. J.; Ogasawara, H.; Nakatani, M.; Milev, A.; Cichowicz, A.; Kawakata, H.; Yabe, Y.; Murakami, O.; Naoi, M. M.; Moriya, H.; Satoh, T.

2011-12-01

116

Risk-reduction analysis of severe-accident prevention and mitigation systems  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is currently addressing the problem of how regulations might be changed to include consideration of degraded core accidents. In support of this, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program is being performed to assess the benefits and impacts of a set of degraded core safety features. This paper describes some initial results of Phase I of the program which includes estimates of the effects which various preventive and mitigative safety features have on the frequencies and consequences of core melt accidents for six reference reactors

117

Scientific Opinion on animal health risk mitigation treatments as regards imports of animal casings  

OpenAIRE

Salting with NaCl for 30 days is a well-established and accepted procedure in the casings industry and it has been the standard animal health risk mitigation treatment prescribed in EU legislation for many years. This opinion reviews (i) improvements in the NaCl treatment that would lead to an increased level of safety to avoid transmission of animal pathogens, (ii) alternative treatments that could have been developed giving equivalent or better results in the inactivation of releva...

Efsa, Panel On Animal Health And Welfare

2012-01-01

118

Assess/Mitigate Risk through the Use of Computer-Aided Software Engineering (CASE) Tools  

Science.gov (United States)

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) was requested to perform an independent assessment of the mitigation of the Constellation Program (CxP) Risk 4421 through the use of computer-aided software engineering (CASE) tools. With the cancellation of the CxP, the assessment goals were modified to capture lessons learned and best practices in the use of CASE tools. The assessment goal was to prepare the next program for the use of these CASE tools. The outcome of the assessment is contained in this document.

Aguilar, Michael L.

2013-01-01

119

Comparison of severe accident mitigation measures between EPR and CPR1000  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Severe accident mitigation measures of EPR are introduced, and compared with those of CPR1000, including severe accident dedicated depressurization valves, in-containment refueling water storage tank (IRWST), combustible gas control system, core melt stabilization and cooling system, containment heat removal system, double containment, dedicated instrumentation and controls, severe accident uninterruptible power supply system, operating strategies for severe accident and so on. Improvements of CPR1000 severe accident mitigation measures are proposed. (authors)

120

Long-term development and effectiveness of private flood mitigation measures: an analysis for the German part of the river Rhine  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Flood mitigation measures implemented by private households have become an important component of contemporary integrated flood risk management in Germany and many other countries. Despite the growing responsibility of private households to contribute to flood damage reduction by means of private flood mitigation measures, knowledge on the long-term development of such measures, which indicates changes in vulnerability over time, and their effectiveness, is still scarce. To gain further insights into the long-term development, current implementation level and effectiveness of private flood mitigation measures, empirical data from 752 flood-prone households along the German part of the Rhine are presented. It is found that four types of flood mitigation measures developed gradually over time among flood-prone households, with severe floods being important triggers for an accelerated implementation. At present, still a large share of respondents has not implemented a single flood mitigation measure, despite the high exposure of the surveyed households to floods. The records of household's flood damage to contents and structure during two consecutive flood events with similar hazard characteristics in 1993 and 1995 show that an improved preparedness of the population led to substantially reduced damage during the latter event. Regarding the efficiency of contemporary integrated flood risk management, it is concluded that additional policies are required in order to further increase the level of preparedness of the flood-prone population. This especially concerns households in areas that are less frequently affected by flood events.

P. Bubeck

2012-11-01

121

Risk Mitigation for the Development of the New Ariane 5 On-Board Computer  

Science.gov (United States)

In the frame of the Ariane 5 production, some equipment will become obsolete and need to be redesigned and redeveloped. This is the case for the On-Board Computer, which has to be completely redesigned and re-qualified by RUAG Space, as well as all its on-board software and associated development tools by ASTRIUM ST. This paper presents this obsolescence treatment, which has started in 2007 under an ESA contract, in the frame of ACEP and ARTA accompaniment programmes, and is very critical in technical term but also from schedule point of view: it gives the context and overall development plan, and details the risk mitigation actions agreed with ESA, especially those related to the development of the input/output ASIC, and also the on-board software porting and revalidation strategy. The efficiency of these risk mitigation actions has been proven by the outcome schedule; this development constitutes an up-to-date case for good practices, including some experience report and feedback for future other developments.

Stransky, A.; Dubuc, F.; Conde-Reis, A.; Ledoux, A.; Miramont, P.; Johansson, L.

2010-08-01

122

Proactive gait strategies to mitigate risk of obstacle contact are more prevalent with advancing age.  

Science.gov (United States)

The purposes of this study were to determine if healthy older adults adopt strategies to decrease the likelihood of obstacle contact, and to determine how these strategies are modified as a function of advancing age. Three age groups were examined: 20-25yo (N=19), 65-79yo (N=11), and 80-91yo (N=18). Participants stepped over a stationary, visible obstacle on a walkway. Step length and gait speed progressively decreased with advancing age; the shorter step length resulted in closer foot placement to the obstacle and an associated increased risk of obstacle contact. Lead (first limb to cross the obstacle) and trail (second) limb trajectories were examined for behavior that mitigated the risk of contact. (1) Consistent trail foot placement before the obstacle across all ages allowed space and time for the trail foot to clear the obstacle. (2) To avoid lead limb contact due to closer foot placement before and after the obstacle, the lead toe was raised more vertically after toe-off, and then the foot was extended beyond the landing position (termed lead overshoot) and retracted backwards to achieve the shortened step length. Lead overshoot progressively increased with advancing age. (3) Head angle was progressively lower with advancing age, an apparent attempt to gather more visual information during approach. Overall, a series of proactive strategies were adopted to mitigate risk of contact. However, the larger, more abrupt movements associated with a more vertical foot trajectory and lead overshoot may compromise whole body balance, indicating a possible trade-off between risk of contact and stability. PMID:25455212

Muir, B C; Haddad, J M; Heijnen, M J H; Rietdyk, S

2015-01-01

123

Global climate change: Implications, challenges, and mitigation measures  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This book presents a perspective of the potential problem of global climate change induced by human activity. The editors have presented viewpoints of experts (advocates and skeptics) representing the issues of climate change. Possible results from long-term global change discussed in this book include mass migrations of plants and animals; changes in crop yields; flood and drought; and economic, political, and cultural changes. The text contains 20 chapters on the impact of global climate change and 10 chapters on the mitigation of effects and policy development

124

Disease risk mitigation: The equivalence of two selective mixing strategies on aggregate contact patterns and resulting epidemic spread.  

Science.gov (United States)

The personal choices affecting the transmission of infectious diseases include the number of contacts an individual makes, and the risk-characteristics of those contacts. We consider whether these different choices have distinct implications for the course of an epidemic. We also consider whether choosing contact mitigation (how much to mix) and affinity mitigation (with whom to mix) strategies together has different epidemiological effects than choosing each separately. We use a set of differential equation compartmental models of the spread of disease, coupled with a model of selective mixing. We assess the consequences of varying contact or affinity mitigation as a response to disease risk. We do this by comparing disease incidence and dynamics under varying contact volume, contact type, and both combined across several different disease models. Specifically, we construct a change of variables that allows one to transition from contact mitigation to affinity mitigation, and vice versa. In the absence of asymptomatic infection we find no difference in the epidemiological impacts of the two forms of disease risk mitigation. Furthermore, since models that include both mitigation strategies are underdetermined, varying both results in no outcome that could not be reached by choosing either separately. Which strategy is actually chosen then depends not on their epidemiological consequences, but on the relative cost of reducing contact volume versus altering contact type. Although there is no fundamental epidemiological difference between the two forms of mitigation, the social cost of alternative strategies can be very different. From a social perspective, therefore, whether one strategy should be promoted over another depends on economic not epidemiological factors. PMID:25150459

Morin, Benjamin R; Perrings, Charles; Levin, Simon; Kinzig, Ann

2014-12-21

125

The VUELCO project consortium: new interdisciplinary research for improved risk mitigation and management during volcanic unrest  

Science.gov (United States)

Volcanic unrest is a complex multi-hazard phenomenon of volcanism. The fact that unrest may, but not necessarily must lead to an imminent eruption contributes significant uncertainty to short-term hazard assessment of volcanic activity world-wide. Although it is reasonable to assume that all eruptions are associated with precursory activity of some sort, the knowledge of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting unrest signals and imminent eruption is, today, inadequate to deal effectively with crises of volcanic unrest. This results predominantly from the uncertainties in identifying the causative processes of unrest and as a consequence in forecasting its short-term evolution. However, key for effective risk mitigation and management during unrest is the early and reliable identification of changes in the subsurface dynamics of a volcano and their assessment as precursors to an impending eruption. The VUELCO project consortium has come together for a multi-disciplinary attack on the origin, nature and significance of volcanic unrest from the scientific contributions generated by collaboration of ten partners in Europe and Latin America. Dissecting the science of monitoring data from unrest periods at six type volcanoes in Italy, Spain, the West Indies, Mexico and Ecuador the consortium will create global strategies for 1) enhanced monitoring capacity and value, 2) mechanistic data interpretation and 3) identification of reliable eruption precursors; all from the geophysical, geochemical and geodetic fingerprints of unrest episodes. Experiments will establish a mechanistic understanding of subsurface processes capable of inducing unrest and aid in identifying key volcano monitoring parameters indicative of the nature of unrest processes. Numerical models will help establish a link between the processes and volcano monitoring data to inform on the causes of unrest and its short-term evolution. Using uncertainty assessment and new short-term probabilistic hazard forecasting tools the scientific knowledge base will provide the crucial parameters for a comprehensive and best-practice approach to 1) risk mitigation, 2) communication, 3) decision-making and 4) crisis management during unrest periods. The VUELCO project consortium efforts will generate guidance in the definition and implementation of strategic options for effective risk mitigation, management and governance during unrest episodes. Such a mechanistic platform of understanding, impacting on the synergy of scientists, policy-makers, civil protection authorities, decision-makers, and the public, will place volcanic unrest management on a new basis, with European expertise at its peak. The project is financed by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development, Area "Environment".

Gottsmann, J.

2012-04-01

126

Assuring containment in reactor accidents: recent advances concerning the mitigation of the hydrogen risk  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This article presents the different programs led in laboratories concerning the mitigation of the hydrogen risk in nuclear power plants. 3 aspects are considered: the generation of hydrogen during a reactor major accident, the distribution of this gas inside the reactor containment building and the different combustion modes of hydrogen. Studies show that it is difficult to prevent at any time and place the formation of a combustible mixture despite the presence of hydrogen recombiners. Studies have led to the setting of criteria concerning flame acceleration and detonation-explosion transitions, it has been shown that a mixture whose expansion parameter stays below a limit value can not lead to a flame acceleration over 400 m/s. (A.C.)

127

Effect of Wind Intermittency on the Electric Grid: Mitigating the Risk of Energy Deficits  

CERN Document Server

Successful implementation of California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) mandating 33 percent renewable energy generation by 2020 requires inclusion of a robust strategy to mitigate increased risk of energy deficits (blackouts) due to short time-scale (sub 1 hour) intermittencies in renewable energy sources. Of these RPS sources, wind energy has the fastest growth rate--over 25% year-over-year. If these growth trends continue, wind energy could make up 15 percent of California's energy portfolio by 2016 (wRPS15). However, the hour-to-hour variations in wind energy (speed) will create large hourly energy deficits that require installation of other, more predictable, compensation generation capacity and infrastructure. Compensating for the energy deficits of wRPS15 could potentially cost tens of billions in additional dollar-expenditure for fossil and / or nuclear generation capacity. There is a real possibility that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions will miss the California ...

George, Sam O; Nguyen, Scott V

2010-01-01

128

Measuring, Reporting and Verifying Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions. Reflecting experiences under the Mitigation Momentum Project. Discussion paper  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Mitigation Momentum project aims to support the development of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs). It contributes to the concrete design of NAMA proposals in five countries (Peru, Chile, Indonesia, Tunisia and Kenya). A further aim is to foster cooperation and knowledge exchange within the NAMA community while advancing the international climate policy debate on mitigation and related issues, including approaches for the Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) of NAMAs. MRV enables the assessment of the effectiveness of both internationally supported NAMAs (supported NAMAs) and domestically supported NAMAs (unilateral NAMAs) by tracking NAMA impacts including greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions and non-GHG related impacts such as sustainable development benefits. MRV also supports improved policy design and decision making through systematic progress reporting and is a key tool to ensure accountability of NAMA stakeholders. Both host countries and funders share the common interest of having strong, implementable MRV systems in place. From both perspectives, this raises a number of questions, as well as potential challenges, on how to adapt the MRV approach to the specific circumstances of each NAMA. The objective of this paper is to identify open issues for the MRV of impacts of NAMAs, understood here as implementable actions, i.e. a project, a policy, a programme or a strategy. It pays particular attention to NAMAs with a supported component and reflects relevant initial experiences with developing NAMA proposals in the five Mitigation Momentum countries (i.e. using country examples where appropriate). As MRV systems for these NAMAs are still under development or at their preliminary stage, we hope to share further lessons learned in a subsequent discussion paper. Key challenges analysed in this paper include: How to design a MRV system that satisfies both the host country's and funder's expectations while complying with United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reporting requirements? How to draw the line between the MRV approach for unilateral components and the MRV approach for supported components given that many NAMAs are likely to have both unilateral as well as supported components? How to design a pragmatic, implementable MRV system, which is also robust? What does robustness mean in the context of the MRV of NAMAs? Current NAMA experiences show that responding to these challenges requires taking into account the variety of NAMAs, as illustrated by those submitted to the UNFCCC (including economy-wide GHG reduction goals, sectoral strategies, mitigation policies, individual projects, etc.), and countries' capacities. Although this paper does not aim to provide practical guidance, it will highlight areas where common guidance would be valuable to deal with such challenges. It will also point out areas where such guidance is limited de facto and where pragmatic approaches i.e. seeking a balance between robustness, feasibility and cost-effectiveness, may prove valuable to design feasible yet still robust MRV systems. Although this paper does not answer all questions it raises, it aims to offer innovative ways to respond to open issues, including through learning from country experiences. After a short introduction to basic MRV concepts and to the current status of discussions and experiences on MRV (Chapter 2), the paper is organised around key dimensions of MRV as recognised by MRV literature and UNFCCC texts: transparency (Chapter 3), robustness (Chapter 4), and feasibility and cost-effectiveness (Chapter 5). Challenges pertaining to these MRV dimensions are further explored in each chapter.

De Vit, C.; Roeser, F.; Fekete, H.; Hoehne, N.; Wartmann, S.; Van Tilburg, X.; Larkin, J.; Escalante, D.; Haensel, G.; Veum, K.; Cameron, L.; Halcomb, J.

2013-06-15

129

Stochastic optimized life cycle models for risk mitigation in power system applications  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This ork shows the relevance of stochastic optimization in complex power system applications. It was proven that usual deterministic mean value models not only predict inaccurate results but are also most often on the risky side. The change in the market effects all kind of evaluation processes (e.g. fuel type and technology but especially financial engineering evaluations) in the endeavor of a strict risk mitigation comparison. But not only IPPs also traditional Utilities dash for risk/return optimized investment opportunities. In this study I developed a 2-phase model which can support a decision-maker in finding optimal solutions on investment and profitability. It has to be stated, that in this study no objective function will be optimized in an algorithmically way. On the one hand focus is laid on finding optimal solutions out of different choices (highest return at lowest possible risk); on the other hand the endeavor was to provide a decision makers with a better assessment of the likelihood of outcomes on investment considerations. The first (deterministic) phase computes in a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) approach (Life cycle Calculation; DCF method). Most of the causal relations (day of operation, escalation of personal expanses, inflation, depreciation period, etc.) are defined within this phase. The second (stochastic) phase is a total new way in optimizing risk/return relations. With the some decision theory mathematics an expected value of stochastic solmatics an expected value of stochastic solutions can be calculated. Furthermore probability function have to be defined out of historical data. The model not only supports profitability analysis (including regress and sensitivity analysis) but also supports a decision-maker in a decision process. Emphasis was laid on risk-return analysis, which can give the decision-maker first hand informations of the type of risk return problem (risk concave, averse or linear). Five important parameters were chosen which have the characteristics of typical prospective unpredictability. Other parameters which are not typical totally uncertain in the future are handled within the deterministic live cycle model (parameters such as escalation of insurance costs, personal costs, etc.). One major result in comparing the deterministic with a stochastic calculation was that without changing a mean value parameter the result of stochastic calculation can vary from the deterministic calculation tremendously. In this study I proved that such tools for risk/return analysis could provide helpful informations to a decision-maker. The only major prerequisite for a good solution is that the user has reliable statistical empirical data available and that he spends in fitting the distribution curves to these. (author)

130

Adaptive management for mitigating Cryptosporidium risk in source water: a case study in an agricultural catchment in South Australia.  

Science.gov (United States)

Water-borne pathogens such as Cryptosporidium pose a significant human health risk and catchments provide the first critical pollution 'barrier' in mitigating risk in drinking water supply. In this paper we apply an adaptive management framework to mitigating Cryptosporidium risk in source water using a case study of the Myponga catchment in South Australia. Firstly, we evaluated the effectiveness of past water quality management programs in relation to the adoption of practices by landholders using a socio-economic survey of land use and management in the catchment. The impact of past management on the mitigation of Cryptosporidium risk in source water was also evaluated based on analysis of water quality monitoring data. Quantitative risk assessment was used in planning the next round of management in the adaptive cycle. Specifically, a pathogen budget model was used to identify the major remaining sources of Cryptosporidium in the catchment and estimate the mitigation impact of 30 alternative catchment management scenarios. Survey results show that earlier programs have resulted in the comprehensive adoption of best management practices by dairy farmers including exclusion of stock from watercourses and effluent management from 2000 to 2007. Whilst median Cryptosporidium concentrations in source water have decreased since 2004 they remain above target levels and put pressure on other barriers to mitigate risk, particularly the treatment plant. Non-dairy calves were identified as the major remaining source of Cryptosporidium in the Myponga catchment. The restriction of watercourse access of non-dairy calves could achieve a further reduction in Cryptosporidium export to the Myponga reservoir of around 90% from current levels. The adaptive management framework applied in this study was useful in guiding learning from past management, and in analysing, planning and refocusing the next round of catchment management strategies to achieve water quality targets. PMID:19515479

Bryan, Brett A; Kandulu, John; Deere, Daniel A; White, Monique; Frizenschaf, Jacqueline; Crossman, Neville D

2009-07-01

131

Geologic carbon sequestration as a global strategy to mitigate CO2 emissions: Sustainability and environmental risk  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fossil fuels are abundant, inexpensive to produce, and are easily converted to usable energy by combustion as demonstrated by mankind's dependence on fossil fuels for over 80% of its primary energy supply (13). This reliance on fossil fuels comes with the cost of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions that exceed the rate at which CO{sub 2} can be absorbed by terrestrial and oceanic systems worldwide resulting in increases in atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration as recorded by direct measurements over more than five decades (14). Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas linked to global warming and associated climate change, the impacts of which are currently being observed around the world, and projections of which include alarming consequences such as water and food shortages, sea level rise, and social disruptions associated with resource scarcity (15). The current situation of a world that derives the bulk of its energy from fossil fuel in a manner that directly causes climate change equates to an energy-climate crisis. Although governments around the world have only recently begun to consider policies to avoid the direst projections of climate change and its impacts, sustainable approaches to addressing the crisis are available. The common thread of feasible strategies to the energy climate crisis is the simultaneous use of multiple approaches based on available technologies (e.g., 16). Efficiency improvements (e.g., in building energy use), increased use of natural gas relative to coal, and increased development of renewables such as solar, wind, and geothermal, along with nuclear energy, are all available options that will reduce net CO{sub 2} emissions. While improvements in efficiency can be made rapidly and will pay for themselves, the slower pace of change and greater monetary costs associated with increased use of renewables and nuclear energy suggests an additional approach is needed to help bridge the time period between the present and a future when low-carbon energy is considered cheap enough to replace fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is one such bridging technology (1). CCS has been the focus of an increasing amount of research over the last 15-20 years and is the subject of a comprehensive IPCC report that thoroughly covers the subject (1). CCS is currently being carried out in several countries around the world in conjunction with natural gas extraction (e.g., 2, 3) and enhanced oil recovery (17). Despite this progress, widespread deployment of CCS remains the subject of research and future plans rather than present action on the scale needed to mitigate emissions from the perspective of climate change. The reasons for delay in deploying CCS more widely are concerns about cost (18), regulatory and legal uncertainty (19), and potential environmental impacts (21). This chapter discusses the long-term (decadal) sustainability and environmental hazards associated with the geologic CO{sub 2} storage (GCS) component of large-scale CCS (e.g., 20). Discussion here barely touches on capture and transport of CO{sub 2} which will occur above ground and which are similar to existing engineering, chemical processing, and pipeline transport activities and are therefore easier to evaluate with respect to risk assessment and feasibility. The focus of this chapter is on the more uncertain part of CCS, namely geologic storage. The primary concern for sustainability of GCS is whether there is sufficient capacity in sedimentary basins worldwide to contain the large of amounts of CO{sub 2} needed to address climate change. But there is also a link between sustainability and environmental impacts. Specifically, if GCS is found to cause unacceptable impacts that are considered worse than its climate-change mitigation benefits, the approach will not be widely adopted. Hence, GCS has elements of sustainability insofar as capacity of the subsurface for CO{sub 2} is concerned, and also in terms of whether the associated environmental risks are acceptable or not to the public.

Oldenburg, C.M.

2011-04-01

132

Implications of Climate Change Impacts on Regional Maize Production in the United States: Risk Mitigation Strategies and Food Security  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Analyzing the impacts of climate change on regional maize production in the North Central and the South regions of the United States and proposing risk mitigation strategies have significant implications in the context of national and global food security. Unlike most estimation, we use an interdisciplinary approach and combine climatic variables along with economic inputs and technological improvement in the adapted Cobb-Douglas production function model. The production function is simulated through 2030 under a variety of climate change scenarios, and the results indicate that under the climate change South region tends to have opposite impacts relative to the North Central, the major maize production region in the United States. The results imply that one region’s losses can be partially offset by the other region’s gains. The different responses imply that the South region could provide potential risk mitigation to climate change within the United States and could help the nation and the world maintain maize supply stability. The results gained from this research could be used as cost-efficient climate change risk mitigation strategies for other agricultural commodities in other countries. They can also be used for public policies and advanced risk mitigation and diversification programs, and are expected to contribute to the sustainability of agriculture and the stability of international crop market price in the United States and the world.

Xiang Li

2013-10-01

133

How HRP Research Results Contribute to Human Space Exploration Risk Mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

In addition to the scientific value of publications derived from research, results from Human Research Program (HRP) research also support HRP's goals of mitigating crew health and performance risks in space flight. Research results are used to build the evidence base characterizing crew health and performance risks, to support risk research plan development, to inform crew health and performance standards, and to provide technologies to programs for meeting those standards and optimizing crew health and performance in space. This talk will describe examples of how research results support these efforts. For example, HRP research results are used to revise or even create new standards for human space flight, which have been established to protect crew health and performance during flight, and prevent negative long-term health consequences due to space flight. These standards are based on the best available clinical and scientific evidence, as well as operational experience from previous space flight missions, and are reviewed as new evidence emerges. Research results are also used to update the HRP evidence base, which is comprised of a set of reports that provide a current record of the state of knowledge from research and operations for each of the defined human health and performance risks for future NASA exploration missions. A discussion of the role of evidence within the HRP architecture will also be presented. The scope of HRP research results extends well beyond publications, as they are used in several capacities to support HRP deliverables and, ultimately, the advancement of human space exploration beyond low-Earth orbit.

Lumpkins, Sarah; Mindock, Jennifer

2014-01-01

134

Measuring nutritional risk in hospitals  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Henrik H Rasmussen1,2, Mette Holst3, Jens Kondrup41Centre for Nutrition and Bowel Disease, Department of Medical Gastroenterology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aalborg, Denmark; 2Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark; 3Centre for Nutrition and Bowel Disease, Aarhus University Hospital, Aalborg, Denmark; 4Department of Human Nutrition, Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Clinical Nutrition Unit, Rigshospitalet University Hospital, Copenhagen, DenmarkAbstract: About 20%–50% of patients in hospitals are undernourished. The number varies depending on the screening tool amended and clinical setting. A large number of these patients are undernourished when admitted to the hospital, and in most of these patients, undernutrition develops further during hospital stay. The nutrition course of the patient starts by nutritional screening and is linked to the prescription of a nutrition plan and monitoring. The purpose of nutritional screening is to predict the probability of a better or worse outcome due to nutritional factors and whether nutritional treatment is likely to influence this. Most screening tools address four basic questions: recent weight loss, recent food intake, current body mass index, and disease severity. Some screening tools, moreover, include other measurements for predicting the risk of malnutrition. The usefulness of screening methods recommended is based on the aspects of predictive validity, content validity, reliability, and practicability. Various tools are recommended depending on the setting, ie, in the community, in the hospital, and among elderly in institutions. The Nutrition Risk Screening (NRS 2002 seems to be the best validated screening tool, in terms of predictive validity ie, the clinical outcome improves when patients identified to be at risk are treated. For adult patients in hospital, thus, the NRS 2002 is recommended.Keywords: nutritional risk screening, undernutrition, clinical outcome, hospital

Henrik H Rasmussen

2010-09-01

135

Measuring operational risk in financial institutions  

OpenAIRE

The scarcity of internal loss databases tends to hinder the use of the advanced approaches for operational risk measurement (Advanced Measurement Approaches (AMA)) in financial institutions. As there is a greater variety in credit risk modelling, this article explores the applicability of a modified version of CreditRisk+ to operational loss data. Our adapted model, OpRisk+, works out very satisfying Values-at-Risk (VaR) at 95% level as compared with estimates drawn from sophisticated AMA mod...

Plunus, Se?verine; Hu?bner, Georges; Peters, Jean-philippe

2012-01-01

136

Arsenic contamination of groundwater: a review of sources, prevalence, health risks, and strategies for mitigation.  

Science.gov (United States)

Arsenic contamination of groundwater in different parts of the world is an outcome of natural and/or anthropogenic sources, leading to adverse effects on human health and ecosystem. Millions of people from different countries are heavily dependent on groundwater containing elevated level of As for drinking purposes. As contamination of groundwater, poses a serious risk to human health. Excessive and prolonged exposure of inorganic As with drinking water is causing arsenicosis, a deteriorating and disabling disease characterized by skin lesions and pigmentation of the skin, patches on palm of the hands and soles of the feet. Arsenic poisoning culminates into potentially fatal diseases like skin and internal cancers. This paper reviews sources, speciation, and mobility of As and global overview of groundwater As contamination. The paper also critically reviews the As led human health risks, its uptake, metabolism, and toxicity mechanisms. The paper provides an overview of the state-of-the-art knowledge on the alternative As free drinking water and various technologies (oxidation, coagulation flocculation, adsorption, and microbial) for mitigation of the problem of As contamination of groundwater. PMID:25374935

Shankar, Shiv; Shanker, Uma; Shikha

2014-01-01

137

Enhancing awareness to mitigate the risk of HIV/AIDS in older adults.  

Science.gov (United States)

HIV is often assumed to only affect younger people, and many older people do not realize that they might risk acquiring the virus. Given that sexual transmission is by far the most common way to contract HIV around the world, health care professionals do not usually pay enough attention to the possibility of HIV/AIDS in older adults, based on the common conviction that they no longer have any sexual desires and that they are sexually inactive. Nevertheless, the sexual behavior of older people is likely to change over time, as aging baby boomers progress into their 60s and 70s, meeting the criteria for "successful aging", and not conforming to the stereotype of "sexless elderly". Hence the urgent need to awareness is that HIV remains as a major health threat even in advanced age. Prompt diagnosis and treatment are especially crucial in older adults because of their general frailty and high comorbidity levels. This article reviews recent literature concerning HIV/AIDS in older adults, as regard the related epidemiological, clinical and public health issues, with a view to suggesting how the rising rate of HIV transmission in this age group might be mitigated, and shows the main points that HCP should tackle to identify older people at risk of HIV infection. In summary, there is a pressing need to develop effective prevention schemes and to adapt clinical and programmatic approaches to improve the survival of older people with HIV. PMID:24789219

Inelmen, Emine Meral; Sergi, Giuseppe; De Rui, Marina; Manzato, Enzo

2014-12-01

138

Diarrhoeal Health Risks Attributable to Water-Borne-Pathogens in Arsenic-Mitigated Drinking Water in West Bengal are Largely Independent of the Microbiological Quality of the Supplied Water  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available There is a growing discussion about the possibility of arsenic mitigation measures in Bengal and similar areas leading to undesirable substitution of water-borne-pathogen attributable risks pathogens for risks attributable to arsenic, in part because of uncertainties in relative pathogen concentrations in supplied and end-use water. We try to resolve this discussion, by assessing the relative contributions of water supply and end-user practices to water-borne-pathogen-attributable risks for arsenic mitigation options in a groundwater arsenic impacted area of West Bengal. Paired supplied arsenic-mitigated water and end-use drinking water samples from 102 households were collected and analyzed for arsenic and thermally tolerant coliforms [TTC], used as a proxy for microbiological water quality, We then estimated the DALYs related to key sequelae, diarrheal diseases and cancers, arising from water-borne pathogens and arsenic respectively. We found [TTC] in end-use drinking water to depend only weakly on [TTC] in source-water. End-user practices far outweighed the microbiological quality of supplied water in determining diarrheal disease burden. [TTC] in source water was calculated to contribute <1% of total diarrheal disease burden. No substantial demonstrable pathogen-for-arsenic risk substitution attributable to specific arsenic mitigation of supplied waters was observed, illustrating the benefits of arsenic mitigation measures in the area studied.

Debapriya Mondal

2014-04-01

139

Severe accident approach - final report. Evaluation of design measures for severe accident prevention and consequence mitigation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

An important goal of the US DOE reactor development program is to conceptualize advanced safety design features for a demonstration Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR). The treatment of severe accidents is one of the key safety issues in the design approach for advanced SFR systems. It is necessary to develop an in-depth understanding of the risk of severe accidents for the SFR so that appropriate risk management measures can be implemented early in the design process. This report presents the results of a review of the SFR features and phenomena that directly influence the sequence of events during a postulated severe accident. The report identifies the safety features used or proposed for various SFR designs in the US and worldwide for the prevention and/or mitigation of Core Disruptive Accidents (CDA). The report provides an overview of the current SFR safety approaches and the role of severe accidents. Mutual understanding of these design features and safety approaches is necessary for future collaborations between the US and its international partners as part of the GEN IV program. The report also reviews the basis for an integrated safety approach to severe accidents for the SFR that reflects the safety design knowledge gained in the US during the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor (ALMR) and Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) programs. This approach relies on inherent reactor and plant safety performance characteristics to provide additional safety margins. The goal of this approach safety margins. The goal of this approach is to prevent development of severe accident conditions, even in the event of initiators with safety system failures previously recognized to lead directly to reactor damage.

140

Making the Handoff from Earthquake Hazard Assessments to Effective Mitigation Measures (Invited)  

Science.gov (United States)

This year has witnessed a barrage of large earthquakes worldwide with the resulting damages ranging from inconsequential to truly catastrophic. We cannot predict when earthquakes will strike, but we can build communities that are resilient to strong shaking as well as to secondary hazards such as landslides and liquefaction. The contrasting impacts of the magnitude-7 earthquake that struck Haiti in January and the magnitude-8.8 event that struck Chile in April underscore the difference that mitigation and preparedness can make. In both cases, millions of people were exposed to severe shaking, but deaths in Chile were measured in the hundreds rather than the hundreds of thousands that perished in Haiti. Numerous factors contributed to these disparate outcomes, but the most significant is the presence of strong building codes in Chile and their total absence in Haiti. The financial cost of the Chilean earthquake still represents an unacceptably high percentage of that nation’s gross domestic product, a reminder that life safety is the paramount, but not the only, goal of disaster risk reduction measures. For building codes to be effective, both in terms of lives saved and economic cost, they need to reflect the hazard as accurately as possible. As one of four federal agencies that make up the congressionally mandated National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) develops national seismic hazard maps that form the basis for seismic provisions in model building codes through the Federal Emergency Management Agency and private-sector practitioners. This cooperation is central to NEHRP, which both fosters earthquake research and establishes pathways to translate research results into implementation measures. That translation depends on the ability of hazard-focused scientists to interact and develop mutual trust with risk-focused engineers and planners. Strengthening that interaction is an opportunity for the next generation of earthquake scientists and engineers. In addition to the national maps, the USGS produces more detailed urban seismic hazard maps that communities have used to prioritize retrofits and design critical infrastructure that can withstand large earthquakes. At a regional scale, the USGS and its partners in California have developed a time-dependent earthquake rupture forecast that is being used by the insurance sector, which can serve to distribute risk and foster mitigation if the right incentives are in place. What the USGS and partners are doing at the urban, regional, and national scales, the Global Earthquake Model project is seeking to do for the world. A significant challenge for engaging the public to prepare for earthquakes is making low-probability, high-consequence events real enough to merit personal action. Scenarios help by starting with the hazard posed by a specific earthquake and then exploring the fragility of the built environment, cascading failures, and the real-life consequences for the public. To generate such a complete picture takes multiple disciplines working together. Earthquake scenarios are being used both for emergency management exercises and much broader public preparedness efforts like the Great California ShakeOut, which engaged nearly 7 million people.

Applegate, D.

2010-12-01

141

Measuring Risk When Expected Losses Are Unbounded  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This paper proposes a new method to introduce coherent risk measures for risks with infinite expectation, such as those characterized by some Pareto distributions. Extensions of the conditional value at risk, the weighted conditional value at risk and other examples are given. Actuarial applications are analyzed, such as extensions of the expected value premium principle when expected losses are unbounded.

Alejandro Balbás

2014-09-01

142

Measurements of electron cloud growth and mitigation in dipole, quadrupole, and wiggler magnets  

Science.gov (United States)

Retarding field analyzers (RFAs), which provide a localized measurement of the electron cloud, have been installed throughout the Cornell Electron Storage Ring (CESR), in different magnetic field environments. This paper describes the RFA designs developed for dipole, quadrupole, and wiggler field regions, and provides an overview of measurements made in each environment. The effectiveness of electron cloud mitigations, including coatings, grooves, and clearing electrodes, are assessed with the RFA measurements.

Calvey, J. R.; Hartung, W.; Li, Y.; Livezey, J. A.; Makita, J.; Palmer, M. A.; Rubin, D.

2015-01-01

143

Measurements of Electron Cloud Growth and Mitigation in Dipole, Quadrupole, and Wiggler Magnets  

CERN Document Server

Retarding field analyzers (RFAs), which provide a localized measurement of the electron cloud, have been installed throughout the Cornell Electron Storage Ring (CESR), in different magnetic field environments. This paper describes the RFA designs developed for dipole, quadrupole, and wiggler field regions, and provides an overview of measurements made in each environment. The effectiveness of electron cloud mitigations, including coatings, grooves, and clearing electrodes, are assessed with the RFA measurements.

Calvey, J R; Li, Y; Livezey, J A; Makita, J; Palmer, M A; Rubin, D

2014-01-01

144

Mitigation measures for air pollution and climate change  

SCPinfonet

way as to reduce emissions e.g. travelling by train instead of by air. These \\measures ... or nitrous oxide (N. 2 ... Sulphur- free (< 10 ppm S) petrol and diesel \\leads to increased refinery CO .... through use of limestone in wet scrubbing. [§ \\5.4.1.1].

145

On the post mitigation impact risk assessment of possible targets for an asteroid deflection demonstration mission in the NEOShield project.  

Science.gov (United States)

Mankind believes to have the capabilities to avert potentially disastrous asteroid impacts. Yet, only the realization of a mitigation demonstration mission can confirm such a claim. The NEOShield project, an international collaboration under European leadership, aims to draw a comprehensive picture of the scientific as well as technical requirements to such an endeavor. One of the top priorities of such a demonstration mission is, of course, that a previously harmless target asteroid shall not be turned into a potentially hazardous object. Given the inherently large uncertainties in an asteroid's physical parameters, as well as the additional uncertainties introduced during the deflection attempt, an in depth analysis of the change in asteroid impact probabilities after a deflection event becomes necessary. We present a post mitigation impact risk analysis of a list of potential deflection test missions and discuss the influence of orbital, physical and mitigation induced uncertainties.

Eggl, Siegfried

2014-05-01

146

Multiple-pollutant cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gas mitigation measures in the UK agriculture  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Highlights: ? Multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curves can inform integrated environmental policy. ? We incorporated the co-effects on NH3, NO3?, P and sediment, as monetary values, into the UK GHG MACC. ? Adding co-effects modifies the GHG MACC, though with little impact unless using high damage values. ? Further research is needed on the co-effects of GHG mitigation measures and on damage values. ? Analysis should focus on the co-effects of measures that are slightly above or below the threshold. -- Abstract: This paper develops multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curve analysis to identify an optimal set of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures considering the trade-offs and synergies with other environmental pollutants. The analysis is applied to UK agriculture, a sector expected to make a contribution to the national GHG mitigation effort. Previous analyses using marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) have determined the sector's GHG abatement potential based on the cost-effectiveness of a variety of technically feasible mitigation measures. Most of these measures have external effects on other pollution loads arising from agricultural activities. Here the monetary values of four of the most important impacts to water and air (specifically ammonia, nitrate, phosphorous and sediment) are included in the cost-effectiveness analysis. The resulting multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curve (MP MACC) informs the design of sustainable climate change policies by showing how the MP MACC for the UK agriculture can differ from the GHG MACC. The analysis also highlights research gaps, and suggests a need to understand the wider environmental effects of GHG mitigation options and to reduce the uncertainty in pollutant damage cost estimates

147

Risk informed analysis of training effectiveness for mitigating accidents of nuclear power plants  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A critical area for deriving expected benefits from training and exercise is the measurement of 'training effectiveness'-how well the training inputs are serving the intended purpose. This aspect is often neglected by nuclear organizations, saying that measurement is difficult. However, I believe that a technique in nuclear society has developed sufficiently to measure most important aspects of training by way of human reliability analysis (HRA) used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The consequences of errors caused by lack of training can be evaluated in terms of the overall vulnerability to human error of the facility under consideration. This study presents current situation and considerations for measures of robustness on nuclear accidents and HRA technique on the training effectiveness. In view of risk informed approach with this consideration and an example case, I'd like to identify appropriate relationship between risk measures of robustness and training effectiveness.

Lee, Chang Ju [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2012-10-15

148

Mitigating the effects of measurement noise on Granger causality  

OpenAIRE

Computing Granger causal relations among bivariate experimentally observed time series has received increasing attention over the past few years. Such causal relations, if correctly estimated, can yield significant insights into the dynamical organization of the system being investigated. Since experimental measurements are inevitably contaminated by noise, it is thus important to understand the effects of such noise on Granger causality estimation. The first goal of this pa...

Nalatore, Hariharan; Rangarajan, Govindan; Ding, Mingzhou

2007-01-01

149

Role of the Internet in Anticipating and Mitigating Earthquake Catastrophes, and the Emergence of Personal Risk Management (Invited)  

Science.gov (United States)

Risks from natural and financial catastrophes are currently managed by a combination of large public and private institutions. Public institutions usually are comprised of government agencies that conduct studies, formulate policies and guidelines, enforce regulations, and make “official” forecasts. Private institutions include insurance and reinsurance companies, and financial service companies that underwrite catastrophe (“cat”) bonds, and make private forecasts. Although decisions about allocating resources and developing solutions are made by large institutions, the costs of dealing with catastrophes generally fall for the most part on businesses and the general public. Information on potential risks is generally available to the public for some hazards but not others. For example, in the case of weather, private forecast services are provided by www.weather.com and www.wunderground.com. For earthquakes in California (only), the official forecast is the WGCEP-USGS forecast, but provided in a format that is difficult for the public to use. Other privately made forecasts are currently available, for example by the JPL QuakeSim and Russian groups, but these efforts are limited. As more of the world’s population moves increasingly into major seismic zones, new strategies are needed to allow individuals to manage their personal risk from large and damaging earthquakes. Examples include individual mitigation measures such as retrofitting, as well as microinsurance in both developing and developed countries, as well as other financial strategies. We argue that the “long tail” of the internet offers an ideal, and greatly underutilized mechanism to reach out to consumers and to provide them with the information and tools they need to confront and manage seismic hazard and risk on an individual, personalized basis. Information of this type includes not only global hazard forecasts, which are now possible, but also global risk estimation. Additionally, social networking tools are available that will allow self-organizing, disaster-resilient communities to arise as emergent structures from the underlying nonlinear social dynamics. In this talk, we argue that the current style of risk management is not making adequate use of modern internet technology, and that significantly more can be done. We suggest several avenues to proceed, in particular making use of the internet for earthquake forecast and information delivery, as well as tracking forecast validation and verification on a real-time basis. We also show examples of forecasts delivered over the internet, and describe how these are made.

Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Donnellan, A.; Graves, W.; Tiampo, K. F.; Klein, W.

2009-12-01

150

Legacy Risk Measure for Environmental Waste  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) is investigating the development of a comprehensive and quantitative risk model framework for environmental management activities at the site. Included are waste management programs (high-level waste, transuranic waste, low-level waste, mixed low-level waste, spent nuclear fuel, and special nuclear materials), major environmental restoration efforts, major decontamination and decommissioning projects, and planned long-term stewardship activities. Two basic types of risk estimates are included: risks from environmental management activities, and long-term legacy risks from wastes/materials. Both types of risks are estimated using the Environment, Safety, and Health Risk Assessment Program (ESHRAP) developed at the INEEL. Given these two types of risk calculations, the following evaluations can be performed: risk evaluation of an entire program (covering waste/material as it now exists through disposal or other e nd states); risk comparisons of alternative programs or activities; comparisons of risk benefit versus risk cost for activities or entire programs; ranking of programs or activities by risk; ranking of wastes/materials by risk; evaluation of site risk changes with time as activities progress; and integrated performance measurement using indicators such as injury/death and exposure rates. This paper discusses the definition and calculation of legacy risk measures and associated issues. The legac measures and associated issues. The legacy risk measure is needed to support three of the seven types of evaluations listed above: comparisons of risk benefit versus risk cost, ranking of wastes/materials by risk, and evaluation of site risk changes with time

151

Cooperative efforts to mitigate proliferation risks at the Semipalatinsk test site  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Full text: For forty years the Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS) was used by the Soviet Union for atmospheric and underground nuclear tests. Atmospheric test were terminated as a result of the 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty; underground tests continued until 1990. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991, most of the soldiers guarding the site and most of the technical specialists returned to Russia. The Kazakhstan National Nuclear Center (NNC) was left with a huge environmental legacy and an unknown nuclear proliferation legacy. The Russian government was concerned that it would have to shoulder the environmental cleanup costs and, perhaps, face reparations for past activities. Consequently, its officials and technical specialists had no desire to return to the STS. NNC officials and technical specialists reached out to the international community to ask for assistance in assessing and mitigating the environmental risks at the STS. They had virtually no information about potential proliferation concerns because the nuclear testing records were Russian government property. Under the United States Cooperative Threat Reduction (Nunn-Lugar) program, a concerted effort was made by the U.S. Department of Defense to close the nuclear testing tunnels to destroy the nuclear testing infrastructure at the STS. The Nunn-Lugar program also facilitated the removal of nearly 600 kilograms of highly enrichment uranium from the Ulba Metallurgical Plant in Ust-Kamenothe Ulba Metallurgical Plant in Ust-Kamenogorsk to the United States to avoid potential nuclear proliferation problems. The Nunn-Lugar program was also responsible, together with the Russian government, to return Soviet nuclear weapons from Kazakhstan to Russia. As part of the Cooperative Threat Reduction lab-to-lab program, technical specialists from the U.S. national laboratories began to work with NNC specialists to enhance the protection and safeguarding of fissile materials resident at STS reactors and at the research reactor and associated facilities at the Institute for Nuclear Physics at Alatau and the fast reactor at Aktau. These programs resulted in cooperative activities between NNC and U.S. national laboratory technical specialists. One of these activities brought me to the STS in April 1998. That visit combined with my experience at the U.S. Nevada Nuclear Test Site convinced me that there were likely other fissile materials present at the STS that may present a significant proliferation risk and required immediate attention. NNC officials and specialists were unsuccessful in obtaining any information from the Russian government. Moreover, since the Republic of Kazakhstan had signed the nuclear nonproliferation treaty, it was not supposed to have undeclared fissile materials in its territory. By 1998, my colleagues at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and I had established close cooperation with the nuclear specialists from the Russian Federal Nuclear Centers (the All-Russia Institute for Experimental Physics, VNIIEF, and All-Russia Institute for Theoretical Physics, VNIITF). We were able to convince Academician Rady I. Ilkaev, director of VNIIEF, to return to Kazakhstan in 1999 and sign a three-party technical memorandum to work with the three governments to assess and liquidate the potential proliferation risks. Government officials from the U.S. Department of Energy, Russian Ministry of Atomic Energy, and RK NNC gave formal approval to proceed with trilateral technical cooperation to assess and remediate the proliferation risks associated with former Russian nuclear experiments and tests at STS. Over the next 13 years, we witnessed a remarkable spirit of cooperation among the three countries. The Russian nuclear specialists identified the potential sites of concerns, the type of materials and testing activity. They also played a major role in suggesting the appropriate mitigation actions. Without their cooperation, this effort could not have been successful. If left to the Americans and Kazakhstani specialists, it would have been like lookin

152

Cooperative measures to mitigate Asia-Pacific maritime conflicts.  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The economies of East Asia are predominantly export based and, therefore, place special emphasis on the security of the sea lines of communication (SLOCs). Due to economic globalization, the United States shares these concerns. Cooperative measures by the concerned parties could reduce the potential for disruption by maritime conflicts. Primary threats against the SLOCs are disputes over the resources under the seas, disputes over some small island groups, disputes between particular parties (China-Taiwan and North-South Korea), or illegal activities like smuggling, piracy, or terrorism. This paper provides an overview on these threats, issue by issue, to identify common elements and needed cooperation. Cooperation on other topics such as search and rescue, fisheries protection, and oil spill response may help support improved relations to prevent maritime conflicts. Many technologies can help support maritime cooperation, including improved communications links, tracking and emergency beacon devices, and satellite imaging. Appropriate technical and political means are suggested for each threat to the SLOCs.

Chai, Wen-Chung (Taiwan Navy)

2003-05-01

153

Impact of road mitigation measures on amphibian populations: A stage-class population mathematical model  

OpenAIRE

It is now well established that amphibians are suffering widespread decline and extinctions. Among other causes, urbanization is responsible for habitat reduction, habitat fragmentation and massive road kills. In this context, it is urgent to develop and assess appropriate conservation measures. Using yearly censuses of migrating adults of two anuran species at one location in Switzerland, we examined the impact of a road mitigation measure - permanent under-road tunnels wit...

Jolivet, Renaud; Antoniazza, Michel; Strehler-perrin, Catherine; Gander, Antoine

2008-01-01

154

Measurements of Electron Cloud Growth and Mitigation in Dipole, Quadrupole, and Wiggler Magnets  

OpenAIRE

Retarding field analyzers (RFAs), which provide a localized measurement of the electron cloud, have been installed throughout the Cornell Electron Storage Ring (CESR), in different magnetic field environments. This paper describes the RFA designs developed for dipole, quadrupole, and wiggler field regions, and provides an overview of measurements made in each environment. The effectiveness of electron cloud mitigations, including coatings, grooves, and clearing electrodes, a...

Calvey, J. R.; Hartung, W.; Li, Y.; Livezey, J. A.; Makita, J.; Palmer, M. A.; Rubin, D.

2014-01-01

155

Control measures adopted to mitigate frequent tube failures of hydrogen coolers at KGS1 and 2  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In KGS - 1 and 2, frequent tube failures of hydrogen coolers have caused more concern as they were directly affecting the availability of units. There were unit outages due to hydrogen cooler tube failures. Detailed and systematic studies were carried out by Chemical Lab., KGS for identification of root cause and implementation of remedial measures. Various measures identified, developed and implemented in a systematic manner have subsequently resulted in mitigation of frequent tube failures. (author)

156

Challenges for integrated assessment and Cost-Effectiveness analysis of mitigation measures for controlling water pollution  

OpenAIRE

Identification of challenges for integrated assessment of mitigation measures proposed to improve the ecological and chemical status of water bodies is explored in this paper. These challenges are addressed within a framework proposed for a spatially-distributed cost and effectiveness analysis. Resulting environmental and economic impacts of the implementation of measures are assessed using agro-hydrological and bio-economic modelling with effectiveness and costs calculated at each sub basin ...

Lescot, J. M.; Leccia, O.; Vernier, F.

2013-01-01

157

Measuring reporting verifying. A primer on MRV for nationally appropriate mitigation actions  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The requirements for measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) of nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) are one of the crucial topics on the agenda of international negotiations to address climate change mitigation. According to agreements so far, the general guidelines for domestic MRV are to be developed by Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA)1. Further, the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) will be conducting international consultations and analysis (ICA) of biennial update reports (BUR) to improve transparency of mitigation actions, which should be measured, reported and verified. 2. What is clear from undergoing discussions both at SBSTA and at SBI is that MRV for NAMAs should not be a burden for controlling greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions connected to economic activities. Instead, the MRV process should facilitate mitigation actions; encourage the redirection of investments and address concerns regarding carbon content of emission intensive operations of private and public companies and enterprises worldwide. While MRV requirements are being shaped within the Convention, there are a number of initiatives supporting developing countries moving forward with NAMA development and demonstration activities. How these actions shall be measured, reported and verified, however, remain unanswered. MRV is not new. It is present in most existing policies and frameworks related to climate change mitigation. With an aim to contribute to international debate and capacity building on this crucial issue, the UNEP Risoe Centre in cooperation with UNDP, are pleased to present this publication that through the direct collaboration with Det Norske Veritas (DNV) builds on existing MRV practices in current carbon markets; provides insights on how MRV for NAMAs can be performed and identifies elements and drivers to be considered when designing adequate MRV systems for NAMAs in developing countries. This primer is the second contribution in the emerging area of NAMAs and MRV. It is complemented by a recent publication on Low Carbon Development Strategies and NAMAs. (Author)

Hinostroza, M. (ed.); Luetken, S.; Holm Olsen, K. (Technical Univ. of Denmark. UNEP Risoe Centre, Roskilde (Denmark)); Aalders, E.; Pretlove, B.; Peters, N. (Det Norske Veritas, Hellerup (Denmark))

2012-03-15

158

Physical Vulnerability Assessment Based on Fluid and Classical Mechanics to Support Cost-Benefit Analysis of Flood Risk Mitigation Strategies  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The impacts of flood events that occurred in autumn 2011 in the Italian regions of Liguria and Tuscany revived the engagement of the public decision-maker to enhance the synergy of flood control and land use planning. In this context, the design of efficient flood risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation critically relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the fixed and mobile elements exposed to flood hazard. In this paper we develop computation schemes enabling dynamic vulnerability and risk analyses for a broad typological variety of elements at risk. To show their applicability, a series of prime examples are discussed in detail, e.g. a bridge deck impacted by the flood and a car, first displaced and subsequently exposed to collision with fixed objects. We hold the view that it is essential that the derivation of the computational schemes to assess the vulnerability of endangered objects should be based on classical and fluid mechanics. In such a way, we aim to complement from a methodological perspective the existing, mainly empirical, vulnerability and risk assessment approaches and to support the design of effective flood risk mitigation strategies by defusing the main criticalities within the systems prone to flood risk.

Claudio Volcan

2012-02-01

159

Engineering aspects of earthquake risk mitigation: Lessons from management of recent earthquakes, and consequential mudflows and landslides  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The Proceedings contain 30 selected presentations given at the Second and Third UNDRO/USSR Training Seminars: Engineering Aspects of Earthquake Risk Assessment and Mitigation of Losses, held in Dushanbe, October 1988; and Lessons from Management of Recent Earthquakes, and Consequential Mudflows and Landslides, held in Moscow, October 1989. The annexes to the document provide information on the participants, the work programme and the resolution adopted at each of the seminars. Refs, figs and tabs

160

Keeping focus on earthquakes at school for seismic risk mitigation of the next generations  

Science.gov (United States)

The knowledge of the seismic history of its own territory, the understanding of physical phenomena in response to an earthquake, the changes in the cultural heritage following a strong earthquake, the learning of actions to be taken during and after an earthquake, are piece of information that contribute to keep focus on the seismic hazard and to implement strategies for seismic risk mitigation. The training of new generations, today more than ever subject to rapid forgetting of past events, becomes therefore a key element to increase the perception that earthquakes happened and can happen at anytime and that mitigation actions are the only means to ensure the safety and to reduce damages and human losses. Since several years our institute (OGS) is involved in activities to raise awareness of education on earthquake. We aim to implement education programs with the goal of addressing a critical approach to seismic hazard reduction, differentiating the types of activities according to the age of the students. However, being such kind of activity unfunded, we can act at now only on a very limited number of schools per year. To be effective, the inclusion of the seismic risk issues in school curricula requires specific time and appropriate approaches when planning activities. For this reason, we involve also the teachers as proponents of activities and we encourage them to keep alive memories and discussion on earthquake in the classes. During the past years we acted mainly in the schools of the Friuli Venezia Giulia area (NE Italy), that is an earthquake prone area struck in 1976 by a destructive seismic event (Ms=6.5). We organized short training courses for teachers, we lectured classes, and we led laboratory activities with students. Indeed, being well known that students enjoy classes more when visual and active learning are joined, we propose a program that is composed by seminars, demonstrations and hands-on activities in the classrooms; for high school students we propose summer stages at the OGS Seismological Department. Some examples of education activities we performed during the last two years are here presented. Starting with kids at kindergartens, where we propose play and story-telling activities with the final goal to prepare them on what to do in case an earthquake occurs, we show our experience with the primary and intermediate schools where, through hands-on activities, we reproduce and explain the earthquake phenomenon and its effects. Then we illustrate the work of high school students who, under the guidance of an expert seismologist, designed and performed a microzonation study in Gemona del Friuli, a small town that was severely damaged by the 1976 earthquake. Satisfaction questionnaires and feedback by students and teachers help us to assess the effectiveness of our efforts as well as to improve our next actions.

Saraò, Angela; Barnaba, Carla; Peruzza, Laura

2013-04-01

161

Evaluation of innovative means of hydrogen risk mitigation in thermonuclear fusion reactors  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

One of the main accidents in ITER-type thermonuclear fusion reactors is the loss of coolant leading to hydrogen production. Within the framework of the studies on the ITER fusion reactor, a mitigation strategy for this risk must be devised by focusing on a system, which can be placed near the hydrogen source. The uncertainty as to the air content during such a scenario forbids the use of classic methods based on the hydrogen/oxygen reaction such as passive catalytic recombiners. Former studies have proposed a process based on the reduction of metallic oxides and more particularly that of the manganese dioxide enhanced by silver oxide mixture. The reaction studied is H2 + MnO2 ? MnO + H2O (reaction enhanced by Ag2O). The purpose is to study the kinetic. The method used consists in comparing the experimental results obtained on the pilot facility CIGNE with those provided by a model. The experimental results were obtained from tests made on a pilot facility with a solid/gas reaction in a fixed bed. These underlined the importance of favoring the solid/gas contact surface. The modeling used in the MITRHY simulation program, coupled to an optimizer helped determine the kinetic parameters and the data on the material and temperature transfers. The kinetic is of first order rate for hydrogen with an activation energy of 29428 J/mol and a kinetic coefficient of 142 m.s-1. Integrated in the MITRHY program, the kinetic parameters were used to simulate the hydrogen elimination in the accident conditions on the ITER experimental reactor. This study achieved a pre-design basis of the device (bed of about 30 cm with grains of a diameter of less than 5 mm) to be implemented. It also underlined the need to favor the specific surface to improved process efficiency. (author)

162

Measurement requirements for a near-Earth asteroid impact mitigation demonstration mission  

OpenAIRE

A concept for an Impact Mitigation Preparation Mission, called Don Quijote, is to send two spacecraft to a Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA): an Orbiter and an Impactor. The Impactor collides with the asteroid while the Orbiter measures the resulting change in the asteroid's orbit, by means of a Radio Science Experiment (RSE) carried out before and after impact. Three parallel Phase A studies on Don Quijote were carried out for the European Space Agency: the research presented here ...

Wolters, Stephen D.; Ball, Andrew J.; Wells, Nigel; Saunders, Christopher; Mcbride, Neil

2011-01-01

163

Rockfall hazard assessment, risk quantification, and mitigation options for reef cove resort development, False Cape, Queensland, Australia  

Science.gov (United States)

GIS and 2-D rock fall simulations were used as the primary tools during a rock fall hazard assessment and analyses for a major resort and township development near Cairns, Queensland in Australia. The methods used included 1) the development of a digital elevation model (DEM); undertaking rock fall trajectory analyses to determine the end points of rockfalls, the distribution of kinetic energy for identified rock fall runout Zones, and 3) undertaking event tree analyses based on a synthesis of all data in order to establish Zones with the highest risk of fatalities. This paper describes the methodology used and the results of this work. Recommendations to mitigate the hazard included having exclusions zones with no construction, scaling (including trim blasting), construction of berms and rockfall catch fences. Keywords: GIS, rockfall simulation, rockfall runout Zones, mitigation options INTRODUCTION False Cape is located on the east side of the Trinity inlet near Cairns (Figure 1). Construction is underway for a multi-million dollar development close the beach front. The development will ultimately cover about 1.5 km of prime coast line. The granite slopes above the development are steep and are covered with a number of large, potentially unstable boulders. Sheet jointing is present in the in-situ bedrock and these combined with other tectonic joint sets have provided a key mechanism for large side down slope on exposed bedrock. With each rock fall (evidence by boulders strew in gullies, over the lower parts of the slope, and on the beach) the failure mechanism migrates upslope. In order for the Developer to proceed with construction he needs to mitigate the identified rock fall hazard. The method used to study the hazard and key finding are presented in this paper. Discussion is provided in the conclusion on mitigation options. KEY METHODS USED TO STUDY THE HAZARD In summary the methods used to study the hazard for the False Cape project include; 1. The development of a digital elevation model (DEM) used to delineate rock fall runout Zones [1] that included the spatial location of boulder fields mapped within Zones(Figure 2). A Zone is defined as an area above the development on steep sided slopes where falling rocks are channeled into gullies / and or are contained between topographic features such as ridges and spurs that extend down the mountainside. These natural barriers generally ensure that falling rocks do not fall or roll into adjacent Zones; 2. The use of ‘Flow Path Tracing Tool' in Arc GIS spatial analyst to confirm typical descents of boulders in Zones. These were shown to correlated strongly with the endpoints of boulders observed within the development and major clusters of boulders on the beach front; 3. The use of 2-D rockfall trajectory analyses [2] using sections cut along typical 3-D trajectory paths mapped out in ARC GIS per Zone. Sections along typical paths in Zones simulated, to some degree, the 3-D affect or path of rocks as they bounce roll down slope (Figure 3); 4. The calibration of rockfall input parameters (coefficients of normal and tangential restitution, slope roughness, friction angle, etc.) using field identified endpoints and size of fallen rock and boulder; and 5. Undertaking risk evolutions in order to quantify the potential risk for each independent rockfall Zone. KEY FINDINGS FROM THE STUDIES The key findings from the study include; 1. Multiple potentially unstable in-situ boulders (some in excess of several thousand tonnes) are present above the development. 2. Similar geological structures (dykes, jointing, etc.) are present in the boulders on the beach front and within the development exposed in-situ bedrock located above the development. Measurement and comparison of the orientation of these geological structures present in boulders with that observed in the in-situ bedrock provided strong evidence that that the boulders have mitigated down slope. 3. Eight discrete Rockfall Runout Zones were identified using the digital elevation model set up in ARC GIS (Figure 4). The bound

Schlotfeldt, P.

2009-04-01

164

Loss of flow accident and its mitigation measures for nuclear systems with SCWR-M  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Highlights: ? A model of mixed spectrum SCWR system is established by a revised version of RELAP5. ? Some important parameters are chosen to analysis the SCWR-M during LOFA. ? Three important mitigation measures for LOFA of SCWR-M are derived from the results. - Abstract: Based on a revised version of RELAP5, which can be used for super-critical pressure calculation, a model of mixed spectrum SCWR (SCWR-M) system is established. To analyze the transient behavior of SCWR-M and develop mitigation measures during loss of flow accident (LOFA), some important parameters, e.g. reactor coolant pump (RCP) coast-down time, Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) upper water volume and safety injection flow, etc., are chosen for the parametric analysis. The results achieved so far indicate that the SCWR-M system design is feasible and promising. Three important mitigation measures for LOFA of SCWR-M are derived from the results: RCP coast-down time of more than 15 s, RPV upper water volume of more than 27 m3, and safety injection of more than 5% of the system design flow.

165

Sistema Inteligente de Mitigación de Riesgos Intelligent system for risk mitigation  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available La acumulación de experiencias en la concepción de proyectos, el surgimiento de organizaciones y estándares dedicados a la planificación y administración de los mismos, han permitido que su desarrollo se haya convertido en una actividad planificada y controlada. La gestión de riesgos es un proceso complejo estrechamente vinculado al dominio que tenga el equipo de desarrollo sobre el tema. De su correcta gestión dependerán gran parte de los resultados, teniendo en cuenta las ventajas que tanto tecnológicas como económicas reportará para el equipo de desarrollo la mitigación de los mismos. Los riesgos han de analizarse para propiciar el aprovechamiento de las diversas oportunidades que puedan ofrecer y de la misma forma, evitar que sean muy severos e irreparables, los daños que puedan provocar. Los sistemas basados en casos (SBC ayudan y agilizan la toma de decisiones simulando las cadenas de razonamiento que realiza un experto para resolver un problema de su dominio. Su vinculación con distintos elementos del proceso de desarrollo de software posibilita la obtención de resultados más acertados a partir del conocimiento que se les introduce basado en la experiencia acumulada. Actualmente el centro de Informatización para la Seguridad Ciudadana ISEC, ha enfrentado dificultades para una rápida y acertada gestión de riesgos. La utilización de las facilidades que brindan los SBC para la gestión de riesgos resultaría ventajoso al brindar las herramientas necesarias para que los líderes de proyecto, basados en experiencias anteriores, realicen una planificación más acertada, teniendo en cuenta los diversos contratiempos que pudieran surgir.the accumulation of experiences in project design, and the emergence of standards organizations and engaged in planning and administration of the same, have allowed their development has become an activity planned and controlled. Risk management during the life cycle of software development is a complex process closely linked to the domain with the development team on the subject. In its correct management will depend largely on the results, taking into account both technological advantages for the team will bring economic development, mitigating them. To have a tool that automates this, streamline the decision-making process, is essential. In Artificial Intelligence there are different knowledge-based techniques that allow solution of problems in different ways. One of the most common techniques is knowledge Based Systems, which are computer systems that use domain knowledge to solve problems pertaining to this. This solution is essentially the same as that obtained by a person experienced in the problem domain. It is of great importance to use the advantages provided by this type of systems for developing applications to streamline the process of managing risks. To this will be discussed in this article, showing that facilitates the use of minimal resources and higher quality.

Yadira Ruiz Constanten

2012-09-01

166

Measures of risk importance and their applications  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This work is part of a project being conducted for the Division of Risk Analysis (DRA) of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The objectives of the project are to evaluate the importances of containment, the different safety functions, and other various contributers as assessed in probabilistic risk analyses and to identify generic conclusions regarding the importances. Effective display of the importances is an important part of these objectives. To address these objectives, measures of risk importance need to be first identified and then they need to be evaluated for the different risk analyses which have been performed. This report describes the risk importance measures that were defined and were applied to the risk analyses which were performed as part of the Reactor Safety Study Methodology Applications Program (RSSMAP). The risk importance measures defined in this report measure the importance of features not only with regard to risk reduction but also with regard to reliability assurance, or risk maintenance. The goal of this report is not to identify new mathematical formulas for risk importance but to show how importance measures can be interpreted and can be applied

167

Measuring social risk and determining its acceptability  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The implementation of a nuclear waste management technology raises several issues concerning the regulation of social risk. This paper presents a decision analytic approach to resolving some of those issues. A methodology for developing a radiological risk measure is presented, and several approaches to defining acceptable levels of that risk measure are considered. The methodology presented is oriented toward the development of radiological performance objectives for use as guidance in the drafting of regulations

168

Update rules for convex risk measures  

OpenAIRE

In the first part of the paper we investigate properties that describe the intertemporal structure of dynamic convex risk measures. The usual backward approach to dynamic risk assessment leads to strong and weak versions of time consistency. As an alternative, we introduce a forward approach of consecutivity. In the second part we discuss the problem of how to update a convex risk measure when new information arrives. We analyse to what extent the above properties are appropriate update c...

Tutsch, Sina

2008-01-01

169

MODERN RISK MEASURES FOR INDIVIDUAL HIGHER EDUCATION INVESTMENT RISK EVALUATION  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available One of the reasons why people get degree and participate in organized education is that they want to raise their human capital or signal their inner abilities to future employers by sorting themselves out. In both cases they can expect return to their investment, because they can expect higher life-time earnings than those who do not have degree. In this paper we will refer this activity as higher education investment or education investment. In this paper the investment of the state into educating their citizens will not be considered. The question of this paper will develop the findings of Vona (2014. I suggested to introduce modern risk measures because individual risk-taking became a serious question. It was considered that modern risk measures can help to solve some issues with the relation of investment and risk. However before applying some measures from a different field of science, namely investment finance and financial mathematics, to another, economics of education, there must be a very careful consideration, because there are debate over these measures applicability even on their field of science. Value at Risk is not coherent and Expected Shortfall is only one of a great deal of possible tail loss measures. For this reason it will be discussed in detail how should we should adopt the measures, what kind of data is necessary for calculating this risk measures and what kind of new insight they can bring. With the aid of a numerical example it will be shown that with expected shortfall measure we can reflect some large losses, and potential high value of diversification. We show the value at risk based measure is not coherent and this means it points out something different in this environment. It is can be an indicator of loss in opportunities for high end returns.

Vona Mate

2014-07-01

170

Dissemination of well water arsenic results to homeowners in Central Maine: influences on mitigation behavior and continued risks for exposure.  

Science.gov (United States)

Private wells in the United States are unregulated for drinking water standards and are the homeowner's responsibility to test and treat. Testing for water quality parameters such as arsenic (As) is a crucial first step for homeowners to take protective actions. This study seeks to identify key behavioral factors influencing homeowners' decisions to take action after receiving well As test results. A January 2013 survey of central Maine households (n=386, 73% response) who were notified 3-7 years earlier that their well water contained As above 10 ?g/L found that 43% of households report installing As treatment systems. Another 30% report taking other mitigation actions such as drinking bottled water because of the As, but the remaining 27% of households did not act. Well water As level appears to be a motivation for mitigation: 31% of households with well water level between 10 and 50 ?g/L did not act, compared to 11% of households with well water >50 ?g/L. The belief that the untreated water is not safe to drink (risk) and that reducing drinking water As would increase home value (instrumental attitude) were identified as significant predictors of mitigating As. Mitigating As exposure is associated with less worry about the As level (affective attitude), possibly because those acting to reduce exposure feel less worried about As. Use of a treatment system specifically was significantly predicted by confidence that one can maintain a treatment system, even if there are additional costs (self-efficacy). An assessment of As treatment systems used by 68 of these households with well water As >10 ?g/L followed up within August-November 2013 found that 15% of treatment units failed to produce water below As 10 ?g/L, suggesting that there are continued risks for exposure even after the decision is made to treat. PMID:24726512

Flanagan, Sara V; Marvinney, Robert G; Johnston, Robert A; Yang, Qiang; Zheng, Yan

2015-02-01

171

A virtual community and cyberinfrastructure for collaboration in volcano research and risk mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

VHub (short for VolcanoHub, and accessible at vhub.org) is an online platform for collaboration in research and training related to volcanoes, the hazards they pose, and risk mitigation. The underlying concept is to provide a mechanism that enables workers to share information with colleagues around the globe; VHub and similar hub technologies could prove very powerful in collaborating and communicating about circum-Pacific volcanic hazards. Collaboration occurs around several different points: (1) modeling and simulation; (2) data sharing; (3) education and training; (4) volcano observatories; and (5) project-specific groups. VHub promotes modeling and simulation in two ways: (1) some models can be implemented on VHub for online execution. This eliminates the need to download and compile a code on a local computer. VHub can provide a central "warehouse" for such models that should result in broader dissemination. VHub also provides a platform that supports the more complex CFD models by enabling the sharing of code development and problem-solving knowledge, benchmarking datasets, and the development of validation exercises. VHub also provides a platform for sharing of data and datasets. The VHub development team is implementing the iRODS data sharing middleware (see irods.org). iRODS allows a researcher to access data that are located at participating data sources around the world (a "cloud" of data) as if the data were housed in a single virtual database. Education and training is another important use of the VHub platform. Audio-video recordings of seminars, PowerPoint slide sets, and educational simulations are all items that can be placed onto VHub for use by the community or by selected collaborators. An important point is that the "manager" of a given educational resource (or any other resource, such as a dataset or a model) can control the privacy of that resource, ranging from private (only accessible by, and known to, specific collaborators) to completely public. Materials for use in the classroom can be shared via VHub. VHub is a very useful platform for project-specific collaborations. With a group site on VHub where collaborators share documents, datasets, maps, and have ongoing discussions using the discussion board function. VHub is funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation, and is participating in development of larger earth-science cyberinfrastructure initiatives (EarthCube), as well as supporting efforts such as the Global Volcano Model.

Valentine, G. A.

2012-12-01

172

NASA Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation Remediation Technology Collaboration Development  

Science.gov (United States)

NASA is committed to finding solutions to agency cleanup problems that are better, cheaper, and more effective than the status quo. Unfortunately, some potential solutions involve innovative technologies for which NASA remediation managers may not have a high level of understanding or confidence. Since 2004, NASA's Stennis Space Center (SSC) in Mississippi has been pumping groundwater contaminated with trichloroethylene (TCE) and other halogenated volatile organic compounds (HVOC) from their cleanup location designated "Area G" through extraction wells to an aboveground treatment system. Over time, however, the effectiveness of this treatment strategy has diminished and an alternative approach is needed. In 2012, professionals from NASA's Principal Center for Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation (TEERM) introduced SSC managers to an innovative technology for enhancing the performance of SSC's existing pump and treat system. The technology, generally referred to as in situ chemical oxidation (ISCO), involves slowly and continuously injecting a strong but safe chemical oxidant into the groundwater. Treatment is enhanced by a "surfactant-type effect" which causes residual contamination from saturated soil to be released into the dissolved-phase where it can be readily oxidized. Any dissolved-phase contamination that was not oxidized can be collected by the extraction well network and treated aboveground. SSC was not familiar with the technology so to increase their confidence, TEERM identified a contractor who was willing to demonstrate their product and process at a significantly reduced price. An initial, small-scale demonstration of ISCO began at sse in March 2012 and completed in August 2012. This successful demonstration was followed by three larger-scale ISCO demonstrations between August and December 2012. The contractor's innovative Continuous Injection System (CIS) incorporated "green" and sustainable technologies and practices. A slow injection rate was maintained autonomously by the CIS, eliminating the need for multiple mobilizations of personnel and powered equipment. The CIS was calibrated to deliver only as much reagent as the formation would accept without "short circuiting", minimizing material waste. Public utility water pressure was used to mix, dilute, and inject the reagent. NASA personnel were trained to operate and maintain the system and remote monitoring and injection control capabilities were developed, further reducing the need for contractor mobilizations to the site. An integrated solar photovoltaic panel was used to power the control valves and web monitoring telemetry. SSC provided hydrogen peroxide for the process using their existing supplier for the aboveground pump and treat systems. The only consumable required from the contractor was their proprietary activator to catalyze SSC's peroxide.

Romeo, James

2013-01-01

173

The influence of governmental mitigation measures on contamination characteristics of PM(2.5) in Beijing.  

Science.gov (United States)

Beijing, the capital of China, has become one of the most air-polluted cities due to its rapid economic growth. Weekly PM2.5 samples-collected continuously from 2007 to 2010-were used to study the contamination characteristics of atmospheric particles and effects of governmental mitigation measures especially since the 2008 Summer Olympic Games. PM2.5 mass concentrations during the sampling period were reduced compared to the previous studies before 2005, although they were still too high in comparison with environmental standards of China and many other countries as well as WHO standards. Results of principle component analysis show that elements of primary anthropogenic origin had an obvious decline while elements mainly from the natural environment kept a relatively stable course. The governmental macro-control measures influenced both anthropogenic and geogenic sources, but they also led to some pollution peaks prior to implementation of the respective measures. Some element concentrations correlated to the restrictiveness of relative measures, especially during different traffic restrictions. The comparison with other countries and international standards shows that there is a long way to go in order to improve air quality in Beijing, and that governmental mitigation measures need to be continued and reinforced. PMID:24887192

Chen, Yuan; Schleicher, Nina; Chen, Yizhen; Chai, Fahe; Norra, Stefan

2014-08-15

174

Intelligent system for risk mitigation Sistema Inteligente de Mitigación de Riesgos.  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available the accumulation of experiences in project design, and the emergence of standards organizations and engaged in planning and administration of the same, have allowed their development has become an activity planned and controlled. Risk management during the life cycle of software development is a complex process closely linked to the domain with the development team on the subject. In its correct management will depend largely on the results, taking into account both technological advantages for the team will bring economic development, mitigating them. To have a tool that automates this, streamline the decision-making process, is essential. In Artificial Intelligence there are different knowledge-based techniques that allow solution of problems in different ways. One of the most common techniques is knowledge Based Systems, which are computer systems that use domain knowledge to solve problems pertaining to this. This solution is essentially the same as that obtained by a person experienced in the problem domain. It is of great importance to use the advantages provided by this type of systems for developing applications to streamline the process of managing risks. To this will be discussed in this article, showing that facilitates the use of minimal resources and higher quality.

La acumulación de experiencias en la concepción de proyectos, el surgimiento de organizaciones y estándares dedicados a la planificación y administración de los mismos, han permitido que su desarrollo se haya convertido en una actividad planificada y controlada. La gestión de riesgos es un proceso complejo estrechamente vinculado al dominio que tenga el equipo de desarrollo sobre el tema. De su correcta gestión dependerán gran parte de los resultados, teniendo en cuenta las ventajas que tanto tecnológicas como económicas reportará para el equipo de desarrollo la mitigación de los mismos. Los riesgos han de analizarse para propiciar el aprovechamiento de las diversas oportunidades que puedan ofrecer y de la misma forma, evitar que sean muy severos e irreparables, los daños que puedan provocar. Los sistemas basados en casos (SBC ayudan y agilizan la toma de decisiones simulando las cadenas de razonamiento que realiza un experto para resolver un problema de su dominio. Su vinculación con distintos elementos del proceso de desarrollo de software posibilita la obtención de resultados más acertados a partir del conocimiento que se les introduce basado en la experiencia acumulada. Actualmente el centro de Informatización para la Seguridad Ciudadana ISEC, ha enfrentado dificultades para una rápida y acertada gestión de riesgos. La utilización de las facilidades que brindan los SBC para la gestión de riesgos resultaría ventajoso al brindar las herramientas necesarias para que los líderes de proyecto, basados en experiencias anteriores, realicen una planificación más acertada, teniendo en cuenta los diversos contratiempos que pudieran surgir.

Yadira Ruiz Constanten

2012-09-01

175

Hard Sludge Formation in Modern Steam Generators of Nuclear Power Plants Formation, Risks and Mitigation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This article will discuss the physical and chemical reasons for the increased tendency to form hard sludge on the secondary side of modern nuclear steam generators (SG). The mechanism of hard sludge induced denting will be explained. Moreover, advice on operation and maintenance to mitigate hard sludge formation and denting damages will be presented.

176

Measuring Idiosyncratic Risk : Implications for Capital Flows  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

This paper offers two refinements of the traditional risk measure based on the volatility of growth. First, we condition GDP growth on structural characteristics of the host country that move only slowly and therefore can be partly predicted by an investor. Second, we adjust conditional risk for the systematic components due to the global and regional interdependence between alternative investment locations. The decomposition of conditional risk into its systematic and idiosyncratic components reveals that not only are African countries on average characterised by a larger conditional risk than Asian and Latin American countries, but the idiosyncratic risk factor also represents a larger share than in other developing countries. As a final contribution, we search the empirical literature on foreign direct investment and risk in order to determine which of the suggested risk measures provide the best description of idiosyncratic risk. Using a general-to-specific methodology, we find that both economic and political risk factors are important elements in the investment decision. We also find that commercial

Sunesen, Eva Rytter

2006-01-01

177

Lessons Learnt and Mitigation Measures for the CERN LHC Equipment with RF fingers  

CERN Document Server

Beam-induced RF heating has been observed in several LHC components when the bunch/beam intensity was increased and/or the bunch length reduced. In particular eight bellows, out of the ten double-bellow modules present in the machine in 2011, were found with the spring, which should keep the RF fingers in good electrical contact with the central insert, broken. Following these observations, the designs of all the components of the LHC equipped with RF fingers have been reviewed. The lessons learnt and mitigation measures are presented in this paper.

Métral, E; Assmann, R W; Baglin, V; Barnes, M J; Berrig, O E; Bertarelli, A; Bregliozzi, G; Calatroni, S; Carra, F; Caspers, F; Day, H A; Ferro-Luzzi, M; Gallilee, M A; Garion, C; Garlasche, M; Grudiev, A; Jimenez, J M; Jones, R; Kononenko, O; Losito, R; Nougaret, J L; Parma, V; Redaelli, S; Salvant, B; Strubin, P; Veness, R; Vollinger, C; Weterings, W

2013-01-01

178

Observational studies in South African mines to mitigate seismic risks: implications for mine safety and tectonic earthquakes  

Science.gov (United States)

Seismicity poses a significant risk to workers in deep and overstressed mines, such as the gold mines in the Witwatersrand basin of South Africa, as well as inhabitants of earthquake-prone regions such as Japan. A 5-year collaborative project entitled "Observational studies in South African mines to mitigate seismic risks" was launched in 2010 to address these risks, drawing on over a century of South African and Japanese research experience with respect to mining-related and tectonic earthquakes, respectively. The project has three main aims: (1) to learn more about earthquake preparation and triggering mechanisms by deploying arrays of sensitive sensors within rock volumes where mining is likely to induce seismic activity; (2) to learn more about earthquake rupture and rockburst damage phenomena by deploying robust strong ground motion sensors close to potential fault zones and on stope hangingwalls; and (3) to upgrade the South African surface national seismic network in the mining districts. Research sites have been established at mines operated by Sibanye Gold (Hlanganani Shaft and Cooke #4 Shaft) and Anglogold Ashanti (Moab-Khotsong). More than 70 boreholes (totalling more than 2.8 km in length) have been drilled to locate "capable" faults i.e. faults that are considered likely to become seismically active as a result of mining activity and to deploy sensors. Acoustic emission sensors, strain- and tilt meters, and controlled seismic sources were installed to monitor the deformation of the rock mass, the accumulation of damage during the earthquake preparation phase, and changes in dynamic stress produced by the propagation of the rupture front. These data are being integrated with measurements of rock properties, stope closure, stope strong motion, seismic data recorded by the mine-wide network, and stress modelling. The mid-point of the 5-year project has passed. New observations of stress and the response of the rock mass to mining have already been made, and many more are expected in the next two years as the mining front sweeps through the monitoring arrays. We will describe examples of technology adaptation and transfer, as well as preliminary research findings. The strain cell and associated tools required for the compact conical-ended borehole overcoring (CCBO) technique, which determines the 3D stress tensor by a single overcoring of a strain cell, have been reduced to the core size used in South African mines. This modified method was tested at three sites, where it was demonstrated that three overcoring measurements can be made within two shifts. A large number of acoustic emission (AE) sensors were installed at Cooke #4 mine. In the period from 30 September to 5 October in 2011 the monitoring system automatically located 40,555 AE, some of which were located by Moriya et al. using the joint hypocenter location method. Moriya et al. applied the multiplet and the double-difference analysis to the selected multiplets, successfully delineating multiple planar structures. Ultimately we hope that this project will produce knowledge and technology that will reduce the risk posed by both mining-induced and tectonic earthquakes

Durrheim, Raymond; Ogaswara, Hiroshi; Nakatani, Masao; Yabe, Yasuo; Milev, Alexander; Cichowicz, Artur; Kawakata, Hironori; Moriya, Hirokazu; Naoi, Makoto; Kgarume, Thabang; Murakami, Osamu; Mngadi, Siyanda

2014-05-01

179

Flood risk perceptions and spatial multi-criteria analysis: an exploratory research for hazard mitigation  

OpenAIRE

The conventional method of risk analysis (with risk as a product of probability and consequences) does not allow for a pluralistic approach that includes the various risk perceptions of stakeholders or lay people within a given social system. This article introduces a methodology that combines the virtues of three different methods: the quantifiable conventional approach to risk; the taxonomic analysis of perceived risk; and the analytical framework of a spatial multi-criteria analysis. This ...

Raaijmakers, Ruud; Krywkow, Jo?rg; Veen, Anne

2008-01-01

180

Marine and Hydrokinetic Renewable Energy Devices, Potential Navigational Hazards and Mitigation Measures  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

On April 15, 2008, the Department of Energy (DOE) issued a Funding Opportunity Announcement for Advanced Water Power Projects which included a Topic Area for Marine and Hydrokinetic Renewable Energy Market Acceleration Projects. Within this Topic Area, DOE identified potential navigational impacts of marine and hydrokinetic renewable energy technologies and measures to prevent adverse impacts on navigation as a sub-topic area. DOE defines marine and hydrokinetic technologies as those capable of utilizing one or more of the following resource categories for energy generation: ocean waves; tides or ocean currents; free flowing water in rivers or streams; and energy generation from the differentials in ocean temperature. PCCI was awarded Cooperative Agreement DE-FC36-08GO18177 from the DOE to identify the potential navigational impacts and mitigation measures for marine hydrokinetic technologies. A technical report addressing our findings is available on this Science and Technology Information site under the Product Title, "Marine and Hydrokinetic Renewable Energy Technologies: Potential Navigational Impacts and Mitigation Measures". This product is a brochure, primarily for project developers, that summarizes important issues in that more comprehensive report, identifies locations where that report can be downloaded, and identifies points of contact for more information.

Cool, Richard, M.; Hudon, Thomas, J.; Basco, David, R.; Rondorf, Neil, E.

2009-12-01

181

Assessment of human thermal comfort and mitigation measures in different urban climatotopes  

Science.gov (United States)

This study analyses thermal comfort in the model city of Oberhausen as an example for the densely populated metropolitan region Ruhr, Germany. As thermal loads increase due to climate change negative impacts especially for city dwellers will arise. Therefore mitigation strategies should be developed and considered in urban planning today to prevent future thermal stress. The method consists of the combination of in-situ measurements and numerical model simulations. So in a first step the actual thermal situation is determined and then possible mitigation strategies are derived. A measuring network was installed in eight climatotopes for a one year period recording air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and wind direction. Based on these parameters the human thermal comfort in terms of physiological equivalent temperature (PET) was calculated by RayMan Pro software. Thus the human comfort of different climatotopes was determined. Heat stress in different land uses varies, so excess thermal loads in urban areas could be detected. Based on the measuring results mitigation strategies were developed, such as increasing areas with high evaporation capacity (green areas and water bodies). These strategies were implemented as different plan scenarios in the microscale urban climate model ENVI-met. The best measure should be identified by comparing the range and effect of these scenarios. Simulations were run in three of the eight climatotopes (city center, suburban and open land site) to analyse the effectiveness of the mitigation strategies in several land use structures. These cover the range of values of all eight climatotopes and therefore provide representative results. In the model area of 21 ha total, the modified section in the different plan scenarios was 1 ha. Thus the effect of small-scale changes could be analysed. Such areas can arise due to population decline and structural changes and hold conversion potential. Emphasis was also laid on analysing the effectiveness of water bodies, which need further research in contrast to well analysed vegetation areas. Results show different thermal loads in the miscellaneous climatotopes due to land use structures. Both measurements and model simulations demonstrate the positive effect on thermal comfort due to augmentation of areas with high evaporation capacity. These effects can be especially well detected in summer, when heat stress is most pronounced. The measurement based PET calculations show a maximum difference of 4 K PET between inner city and open land site in summer nights. Simulation results overall present a PET reduction of 1-3 K. The average PET reduction in the city center site is about 2 K, while the maximum reduction in the suburban site can exceed 5 K. In urban areas parks are particularly advisable as mitigation measure, because they reduce thermal stress both by tree shading and evapotranspiration.

Müller, N.; Kuttler, W.

2012-04-01

182

Evaluation of strategies for promoting effective radon mitigation. Risk communication and economic research series. Final report  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The Environmental Protection Agency has estimated that as many as 20,000 lung cancer deaths per year in the United States can be attributed to exposure to radon gas. The report evaluates alternative strategies for motivating people to test for radon gas in their homes and to mitigate if necessary. Specifically, two separate radon information and awareness programs were evaluated, one targeted to the general population in the Washington, D.C. area and the other to home buyers in the Boulder, Colorado area. The results suggest that a home buyer program is likely to be far more effective in terms of effective remediation to reduce home radon levels than a program aimed at the general population. The report discusses the empirical findings and develops a recommendation for increasing the effectiveness of radon awareness and mitigation programs

183

Soil bio-engineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area  

OpenAIRE

The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on authochtonal plants suitable for this kind of works and on economic efficiency is essential for the divulgation of such techniques. The present paper is focused on this two issues related to the realization of various typologies of soil bio-engineering works in the humid tropic of Nicaragua.


...

Petrone, A.; Preti, F.

2009-01-01

184

Money Matters: Mitigating risk to spark private investments in energy efficiency  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Scaling-up investment in energy efficiency is essential to achieving a sustainable energy future. Despite energy efficiency's recognised advantages as a bankable investment with immense climate change mitigation benefits, most of the energy efficiency potential remains untapped and the investment gap to achieve climate goals is tremendous. This report seeks to improve understanding as to why this is so, and what can be done about it.

NONE

2010-07-01

185

Using WEPP Technology to Assess the Distribution of Erosion Risk, Mitigation Benefit, and Peak Flow Following Wildfire  

Science.gov (United States)

A number of interfaces have been developed for the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model. These include a GIS interface (GeoWEPP), a Windows interface, and an online interface to assist in analyzing erosion risks, variability, and mitigation effectiveness on forest and rangeland hillslopes that have been burned (the Erosion Risk Management Tool ERMiT). This presentation describes how each of these tools was used to assist in analyzing the erosion and peak runoff risk, and mitigation benefits following a large wildfire. In August, 2005, a wildfire burned 20,000 ha of forest south of Pomeroy, WA. Ten watersheds of greatest interest were identified for analysis and were modeled with GeoWEPP. The watersheds covered 7650 ha, or about 38 percent of the total burned area. Hillslopes were specified high, moderate or low burn severity by examining the BAER fire severity map. The results of this analysis highlighted areas of greatest erosion risk. Most of these areas were on steep south or west facing slopes. Following the GeoWEPP analysis identifying hillslopes of greatest erosion risk, the ERMiT interface was run to evaluate potential erosion risks on these hillslopes, and benefits from seeding or mulching during the first two years following the wildfire. An average of about 12 randomly selected hillslopes, or 5 percent of the hillslopes on larger watersheds, were run with ERMiT for each watershed. The results showed that untreated, there was a ten percent chance that erosion would exceed 13 to 29 t/ha, averaging about 25 t/ha in the first year. Seeding had no affect on first year erosion rates, but reduced erosion on the average about 40 percent in the second year. Mulching at 2 t/ha reduced erosion about 86 percent the year following the fire and 60 percent the second year. For the third analysis, the WEPP windows interface was run for each watershed to estimate return periods for peak runoff rates. From the peak runoff estimates for watersheds of varying area, the ten year peak runoff from any watershed following this fire can be estimated by: Peak runoff (cubic meters per second per square km) = 3.1512 × (Watershed area (sq km))^{-0.5446} (R2 = 0.90). We concluded that these three WEPP tools can be of great benefit to watershed managers when determining the spatial distribution of soil erosion, the risks of a given amount of erosion occurring, and the return period of peak flows the year following the wildfire.

Miller, I.; Elliot, W.; Glaza, B.; Robichaud, P.

2006-12-01

186

Climate Change Variability and Mitigating Measures by Rural Dwellers: the Perception of Arable Farmers  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The study investigated the perception of arable crop farmers on climate change variability and the mitigating measures taken by them. It was carried out in Ahoada-East Local Government Area of Rivers State. Interview schedule was used to elicit information from the respondents. Proportionate sampling technique was employed to select ninety arable crop farmers from the study area. Data collected were analyzed using descriptive statistics and simple Ordinary Least Square (OLS regression at 0.05 significant level was used to test the hypothesis. The findings from the study revealed that female dominated arable crop, and have been farming for the past 12 years. A higher percentage of the arable farmers were aware of climate change and were of the opinion that climate change was caused by bush burning, desertification, clearing of land for agriculture and act of gods. The effects of climate change on arable crops were poor/low yield, increased incidence of pest and diseases and induce spoilage of crops very fast. The mitigating strategies adopted by arable farmers to reduce the effects of climate change on their crops were, early harvesting of crops and mixed farming. Excessive rainfall and sunshine which were some of the signs of climate change affect arable crops when planted, which had led to low yield.

C. O. Albert

2013-12-01

187

The GSFC Combined Approach of ODC Stockpiling and Tribological Testing to Mitigate the Risks of ODC Elimination  

Science.gov (United States)

In response to the elimination of production of several Ozone Depleting Chemicals (ODC's) which have been widely used in successful space flight mechanism cleaning and lubricating procedures, GSFC developed and implemented an overall philosophy of mitigating the risks to flight hardware during the transition phase to ODC-free cleaning procedures. The short term leg of the philosophy was the stockpiling of an appropriate amount of ODC solvents such that all short term GSFC missions will be able to stay with or revert to heritage cleaning and lubricating procedures in the face of life issues. The long-term leg of that philosophy was the initiation of a several tier testing program that will deliver increasing amounts of information over the next few years, starting with accelerated lubricant life tests that compare lubricant life on surfaces cleaned with ODC solvents with lubricant life on surfaces cleaned with ODC-free solvents. While tribological testing, mechanism life testing and space-flight experience will ultimately bring us into the 21st century with environmentally friendly means of cleaning long-life precision mechanism components, many satellites will be launched over the next few years before a number of important tribological questions can be answered. In order to prepare for this challenge, the Materials Engineering Branch in cooperation with the Electromechanical Branch launched an intensive review of all ongoing missions. The failure risk was determined for each long-life lubricated mechanism based on a number of parameters, including 4 comparison of flight solvents used to clean the heritage/life test hardware. Also studied was the ability of the mechanism manufacturers to stockpile ODC's based on state laws and company policies. A stockpiling strategy was constructed based on this information and subsequently implemented. This paper provides an overview of the GSFC ODC elimination risk mitigation philosophy as well as a detailed examination of the development of the ODC stockpiling plan.

Predmore, Roamer; LeBoeuf, Claudia; Hovanec, Andrew

1997-01-01

188

Evaluation of possible mitigation measures to prevent introduction and spread of African swine fever virus through wild boar  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This scientific report has been prepared in response to a request for urgent scientific and technical assistance under Art 31 of Regulation (EC No 178/2002, in relation to possible mitigation measures to prevent introduction and spread of African swine fever virus (ASFV. It was requested to assess the feasibility to drastically reduce the wild boar population by hunting or by the use of traps, and to assess if prevention of movement of wild boars by feeding or by artificial physical barriers reduces the risk of spread of ASFV. No evidence was found in scientific literature proving that wild boar populations can be drastically reduced by hunting or trapping in Europe. The main reasons are the adaptive behaviour of wild boar, compensatory growth of the population and the possible influx of wild boar from adjacent areas. Thus, drastic hunting is not a tool to reduce the risk for introduction and spread of ASFV in wild boar populations. Furthermore, wild boar density thresholds for introduction, spread and persistence of ASFV in the wild boar populations are currently impossible to establish, due to the uncertainty regarding the extent of the spread and maintenance of ASFV, the biases in population datasets, the complex population structures and dynamics. Furthermore, attempts to drastically reduce wild boar populations may even increase transmission and facilitate progressive geographical spread of ASFV, since intensive hunting pressure on wild boar populations leads to dispersion of groups and individuals. Artificial feeding of wild boar might increase the risk of ASFV spread. Fencing can restrict wild boar movements, however further knowledge of the ASF epidemiology and spatial distribution of wild boar is required to identify the areas where fencing could be used as one possible element of a control programme and to assess the feasibility of its implementation.

European Food Safety Authority

2014-03-01

189

Relevance of Fukushima Nuclear Accident to India: Nuclear Radiation Risk and Interventions to Mitigate Adverse Fallout  

OpenAIRE

The environmental radiation release from Fukushima nuclear power following tsunami in Japan has once again highlighted the omnipotent risk of radiation injury in the today’s world. India is at a real risk from radiation fallout both due to nuclear power plant accidents and nuclear warfare threat. The risk from nuclear radiation accident in India is further increased by the region being endemic for iodine deficiency as adverse effects following nuclear radiation fallout ...

Yadav Kapil, Varshney Neha

2012-01-01

190

Radon mitigation in private dwellings. Summary of measures under the National Action Plan against Cancer in Norway 1999-2003  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The report summarizes the remedial measurements carried out under the National Action Plan against Cancer in Norway in the period 1999-2003.The cost effectiveness of the state subsidized remedial measures against radon is evaluated. Other measurements under the National Action Plan against Cancer have also been evaluated, such as measurements of radon in 38.000 dwellings in 158 municipalities, information measures, and actions to increase radon mitigation competence in the building construction industry and in the municipalities. (Author)

191

A Survey of Measurement, Mitigation, and Verification Field Technologies for Carbon Sequestration Geologic Storage  

Science.gov (United States)

The U.S. Department of Energy's (U.S. DOE's) Carbon Sequestration Program is developing state-of-the-science technologies for measurement, mitigation, and verification (MM&V) in field operations of geologic sequestration. MM&V of geologic carbon sequestration operations will play an integral role in the pre-injection, injection, and post-injection phases of carbon capture and storage projects to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Effective MM&V is critical to the success of CO2 storage projects and will be used by operators, regulators, and stakeholders to ensure safe and permanent storage of CO2. In the U.S. DOE's Program, Carbon sequestration MM&V has numerous instrumental roles: Measurement of a site's characteristics and capability for sequestration; Monitoring of the site to ensure the storage integrity; Verification that the CO2 is safely stored; and Protection of ecosystems. Other drivers for MM&V technology development include cost-effectiveness, measurement precision, and frequency of measurements required. As sequestration operations are implemented in the future, it is anticipated that measurements over long time periods and at different scales will be required; this will present a significant challenge. MM&V sequestration technologies generally utilize one of the following approaches: below ground measurements; surface/near-surface measurements; aerial and satellite imagery; and modeling/simulations. Advanced subsurface geophysical technologies will play a primary role for MM&V. It is likely that successful MM&V programs will incorporate multiple technologies including but not limited to: reservoir modeling and simulations; geophysical techniques (a wide variety of seismic methods, microgravity, electrical, and electromagnetic techniques); subsurface fluid movement monitoring methods such as injection of tracers, borehole and wellhead pressure sensors, and tiltmeters; surface/near surface methods such as soil gas monitoring and infrared sensors and; aerial and satellite imagery. This abstract will describe results, similarities, and contrasts for funded studies from the U.S. DOE's Carbon Sequestration Program including examples from the Sleipner North Sea Project, the Canadian Weyburn Field/Dakota Gasification Plant Project, the Frio Formation Texas Project, and Yolo County Bioreactor Landfill Project. The abstract will also address the following: How are the terms ``measurement,'' ``mitigation''and ``verification'' defined in the Program? What is the U.S. DOE's Carbon Sequestration Program Roadmap and what are the Roadmap goals for MM&V? What is the current status of MM&V technologies?

Cohen, K. K.; Klara, S. M.; Srivastava, R. D.

2004-12-01

192

Political risks of transnational petroleum investment: the mitigating role of national and international insurance programs  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aside from the normal commercial risks, transnational petroleum investment faces the natural geological risk associated with exploration and production and the man-made political risk that future changes may lead to a partial or total loss of investment after a petroleum discovery is made. Focusing on the latter risk, the author examines the nature and implications, along with management of the risk by transferring it to a third party through insurance. Insurance schemes include the national insurance of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the US Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC), which includes both investment insurance and development financing. International programs includes those of the World Bank and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency. 4 tables.

Zakariya, H.S.

193

Coupling hydrologic and hydraulic modelling for reliable flood risk mitigation activities in the Upper-Medium Tiber River basin  

Science.gov (United States)

In view of the recent and serious flood events occurred in latest years in Italy, the interest towards accurate methodology for the evaluation of flood prone areas is continually increasing. In particular, this issue is related to urbanization planning activities, civil protection actions (e.g. hydraulic risk warning systems), and the assessment of hydraulic engineering structures behaviour during severe hydrometeorological conditions. In Italy, following the publishing in the late 90's of many laws and regulations concerning hydraulic risk assessment matters, a widespread flooding areas mapping have been carried out (Italian Basin Authorities "PAI" plans). In case of limited availability of historical peak flow data, the flood prone areas estimation was based on the application of hydrologic and hydraulic modelling separately. Moreover, the recent directive 2007/60/EC on the assessment and management of flood risks requires from each member state: preliminary flood risk assessment (within December 2011), flood hazard maps and flood risk maps (within December 2013), flood risk management plans (within December 2015). In order to prevent and control flood events in medium-small river basins (e.g. Upper Tiber River basin, Central Italy), the use of hydrologic models coupled with hydraulic ones can be a valuable tool also for real time applications, such as flood risk mitigation and warning activities of the Italian National Warning System Network (composed by regional "Functional Centres" coordinated by the National Civil Protection Department). In this context, two significant flood events occurred in November 2005 and December 2008 in the Umbria Region territory were considered. In this area a hydrometeorological network, characterized by a high temporal and spatial resolution, is operating in real time. Different coupled models were considered to reproduce the selected events, in order to test and compare their reliability and efficiency. Specifically, two semi-distributed models (MISD model and HEC-HMS model) and two hydraulic models (DHI-MIKE11 and HEC-RAS) were chosen and applied in the Tiber River at Monte Molino section (5270 km2). After the calibrating procedure, the models were used to produce floodplain maps and then for the delineation of dynamic flood hazard and risk scenarios, useful for real-time risk management. The proposed calibration procedure was found to be characterized by a strong reliability due to the fact that a lot of information are available for the two chosen events. In particular, there were detailed hydrometeorological data, such as rainfall records in most of the pluviometric stations located in the basin and hydrometric levels collected in more than one point along the main channel reach. Moreover, from the local "territorial presidium" it was possible to collect non-instrumental information, such as the number and location of embankment failures and other direct observations. Lastly, for these events remote sensing observations of actual flooded areas were also available. Together with hydrometric recorded levels and computed discharges (disposing of reliable rating curves yearly controlled), these last information were extremely useful during the calibration process. Final results showed how useful this tool is for reliable flood risk mitigation activities (mapping and risk assessment as well as real time applications) especially when inundations occur.

Berni, N.; Brocca, L.; Giustarini, L.; Pandolfo, C.; Stelluti, M.; Melone, F.; Moramarco, T.

2009-04-01

194

Induction motor voltage flicker analysis and its mitigation measures using custom power devices: A case study  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This paper suggests methods for estimating short time flicker (PST severity on 22/3.3 kV network supplying induction motor loads of municipal integrated water pumping system. The impact of additional connection of induction motors to the same system has been analyzed. Measurements are done at the point of common coupling (PCC to identify background short time flicker levels and the contribution of the already operating induction motors. The paper also analyses and compares different voltage flicker mitigation methodologies to assess their performance with change in line impedance phase angle for this particular application. Here, Matlab-7.01/PSB is used to present the detailed results of all voltage flickers compensating methodologies and to assess the impact of line impedance X/R sweep on effectiveness of custom power devices. It is observed that distribution static synchronous compensator (DSTATCOM is found more effective for compensating voltage flicker generated by the induction motor load.

SANJAY. A. DEOKAR,

2010-12-01

195

Dynamic strain measurement system with fiber Bragg gratings and noise mitigation techniques  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A low-cost fiber Bragg grating (FBG) vibrometer specifically suited for structural monitoring and aimed at the detection of low-amplitude vibrations is presented. The optical system exploits an intensity modulation principle of operation, while signal processing techniques are used to complement the transducer to improve the performances: a recursive least-squares adaptive filter improves the noise power mitigation by 14 dB, and an efficient spectral estimator permits operating spectral analysis even under high noise conditions. With these methods, a strain sensitivity of 5.6 n? has been achieved in the ±60 µ? range. Experimental assessment tests carried out in typical structural monitoring contexts have demonstrated that the developed sensor is well suited to measure mechanical perturbations of different structures

196

Policies, measures and the monitoring needs of forest sector carbon mitigation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Forest sector mitigation options can be grouped into three categories: (1) management for carbon (C) conservation, (2) management for C storage, and (3) management for C conservation and sequestration worldwide and the average costs of achieving it. It reviews policy measures that have been successfully applied at regional and project levels toward reduction of atmospheric greenhouse gases. It also describes both national programs and jointly implemented international activities. The monitoring methods, and the items to monitor, differ across these categories. Remote sensing is a good approach for the monitoring of C conservation, but not for C substitution, which requires estimation of the fossil fuels that would be displaced and the continued monitoring of electricity generation sources. C storage, on the other hand, includes C in products which may be traded internationally. Their monitoring will require that bi- or multi-lateral protocols be set up for this purpose. 1 fig., 4 tabs., 23 refs

197

Damage-reducing measures to manage flood risks in a changing climate  

Science.gov (United States)

Damage due to floods has increased during the last few decades, and further increases are expected in several regions due to climate change and a growing vulnerability. To address the projected increase in flood risk, a combination of structural and non-structural flood risk mitigation measures is considered as a promising adaptation strategy. Such a combination takes into account that flood defence systems may fail, and prepare for unexpected crisis situations via land-use planning, building construction, evacuation and disaster response. Non-structural flood risk mitigation measures like shielding with water shutters or sand bags, building fortification or safeguarding of hazardous substances are often voluntary: they demand self-dependent action by the population at risk (Bubeck et al. 2012; 2013). It is believed that these measures are especially effective in areas with frequent flood events and low flood water levels, but some types of measures showed a significant damage-reducing effect also during extreme flood events, such as the Elbe River flood in August 2002 in Germany (Kreibich et al. 2005; 2011). Despite the growing importance of damage-reducing measures, information is still scarce about factors that motivate people to undertake such measures, the state of implementation of various non-structural measures in different countries and their damage reducing effects. Thus, we collected information and undertook an international review about this topic in the framework of the Dutch KfC project "Climate proof flood risk management". The contribution will present an overview about the available information on damage-reducing measures and draw conclusions for practical flood risk management in a changing climate. References: Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Suu, L. T. T., Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2012): Do flood risk perceptions provide useful insights for flood risk management? Findings from central Vietnam. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 5, 4, 295-302 Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Kreibich, H., Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2013) Detailed insights into the influence of flood-coping appraisals on mitigation behaviour. Global Environmental Change. DOI:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.05.009. Kreibich, H., Thieken, A. H., Petrow, T., Müller, M., Merz, B. (2005): Flood loss reduction of private households due to building precautionary measures - Lessons Learned from the Elbe flood in August 2002. NHESS, 5, 1, 117-126. Kreibich, H., Christenberger, S., Schwarze, R. (2011) Economic motivation of households to undertake private precautionary measures against floods. NHESS, 11, 2, 309-321.

Kreibich, Heidi; Bubeck, Philip; Van Vliet, Mathijs; De Moel, Hans

2014-05-01

198

The role of the connectivity in the implementation of mitigation measures to reduce the impact of pesticides in the environment under Mediterranean conditions  

Science.gov (United States)

Regulation 1107/2009 of the European Commission, establishes the procedure and criteria for approval of active substances and authorization of plant protection products in Europe. One of the aspects to be considered is the assessment of the fate and behavior in the environment of pesticides In this assessment a tiered modeling approach is followed according to the models and scenarios developed by the FOrum for the Co-ordination of pesticide fate models and Their USe, (named as FOCUS models/scenarios). They consider different European scenarios to determine the predicted environmental concentration (PEC) in soil, ground water, surface water and sediment at in-field or edge-of-field scales. During the evaluation process, it is frequent to establish different mitigation measures to reduce the impact of pesticides and to ensure an acceptable risk to non-target species. Parallel to this regulatory process, the directive of sustainable use of pesticides (Directive 2009/128/EC) establishes a framework to reduce the impact of use of pesticides where the implementation of mitigation measures to protect aquatic systems and vulnerable areas will play a main role. Therefore, there is a main need to assess how the risk mitigation measures established at field level under regulation 1107/2009 are acting at landscape/catchment level. The characteristics of the climate, relief and soils in Mediterranean region provoke that soil erosion by water is common at different scales. In arable lands soil rates due to inter-rill, rill and gully erosion may exceed 10 ton/ha/year. This process may be modified by human actions. In this scheme, connectivity concept emerges as essential to understand the transfer process of surface water, sediment and micropollutants throughout catchments and the success of the implemented measures for the sustainable management of pesticides at different scales (field, landscape and catchment levels). In this work a review of published monitoring programs of pesticides (in soil, surface waters and ground waters) in different Mediterranean regions is presented in order to establish the basis to link the connectivity concept with the implementation of risk mitigation programs under these environmental conditions.

Fernández-Getino García, Ana Patricia; Alonso Prados, Elena; Alonso Prados, José Luis

2014-05-01

199

Final Report for the ZERT Project: Basic Science of Retention Issues, Risk Assessment & Measurement, Monitoring and Verification for Geologic Sequestration  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

ZERT has made major contributions to five main areas of sequestration science: improvement of computational tools; measurement and monitoring techniques to verify storage and track migration of CO{sub 2}; development of a comprehensive performance and risk assessment framework; fundamental geophysical, geochemical and hydrological investigations of CO{sub 2} storage; and investigate innovative, bio-based mitigation strategies.

Spangler, Lee; Cunningham, Alfred; Lageson, David; Melick, Jesse; Gardner, Mike; Dobeck, Laura; Repasky, Kevin; Shaw, Joseph; Bajura, Richard; McGrail, B Peter; Oldenburg, Curtis M; Wagoner, Jeff; Pawar, Rajesh

2011-03-31

200

Debris flow risk mitigation by the means of rigid and flexible barriers – experimental tests and impact analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The impact of a debris flow on a structure can have disastrous effects because of the enormous destructive potential of this type of phenomenon. Although the introduction of risk mitigation structures such as the Sabo Dam, the filter dam and more recently flexible barriers is usual, there are very few methods that are universally recognized for the safe design of such structures. This study presents the results of experimental tests, conducted with the use of a specifically created flume, in order to obtain detailed knowledge of the mechanical aspects, and to analyze the dynamics of the impact of a debris flow on different types of structures. The analyses of the tests, together with the calculation of the thrust caused by the flow, have made it possible to analyze the dynamics of the impact, which has shown differing effects, on the basis of the type of barrier that has been installed.

L. Canelli

2012-05-01

201

Ultrasonic Cross-Correlation Flow Measurement: Theory, Noise Contamination Mechanisms, and a Noise Mitigation Technique  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Based on past experience with ultrasonic cross-correlation flow meters in power plant environments, the presence of spatially correlated noise due to pressure waves, vibration, or sources other than transport of turbulent eddies will cause a bias in the time delays measured by the meter. Several techniques were developed to detect the existence of such correlated noise and correct for its effect at plant conditions. An analytical and experimental investigation was performed to further understand the basic physics of the noise mechanisms. The dominant error mechanisms investigated in this work were speed of sound perturbations due to pressure fluctuations and beam path length changes due to wall vibration. An analytical model was formulated which estimates the signal level of the flow meter based on the turbulent velocity field. From this model, an estimate of the system noise which would cause contamination could be determined. A test at a water tunnel facility was performed in order to evaluate the noise mechanisms. During this test, measurements were taken with and without controlled noise sources. Pressure and acceleration measurements were used to evaluate a coherent noise removal technique developed to mitigate the impact of noise in the ultrasonic cross-correlation flow measurement. The coherent noise removal technique was shown to be effective in removing noise during the water tunnel test. (authors)

202

Measurement requirements for a near-Earth asteroid impact mitigation demonstration mission  

CERN Document Server

A concept for an Impact Mitigation Preparation Mission, called Don Quijote, is to send two spacecraft to a Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA): an Orbiter and an Impactor. The Impactor collides with the asteroid while the Orbiter measures the resulting change in the asteroid's orbit, by means of a Radio Science Experiment (RSE) carried out before and after impact. Three parallel Phase A studies on Don Quijote were carried out for the European Space Agency: the research presented here reflects outcomes of the study by QinetiQ. We discuss the mission objectives with regards to the prioritisation of payload instruments, with emphasis on the interpretation of the impact. The Radio Science Experiment is described and it is examined how solar radiation pressure may increase the uncertainty in measuring the orbit of the target asteroid. It is determined that to measure the change in orbit accurately a thermal IR spectrometer is mandatory, to measure the Yarkovsky effect. The advantages of having a laser altimeter are discusse...

Wolters, Stephen D; Wells, Nigel; Saunders, Christopher; McBride, Neil

2011-01-01

203

Risk identification and mitigation processes for using scrum in global software  

OpenAIRE

There is growing interest in applying agile practices in Global Software Development (GSD) projects. But project stakeholder distribution in GSD creates a number of challenges that make it difficult to use some agile practices. Moreover, little is known about what the key challenges or risks are, and how GSD project mangers deal with these risks while using agile practices. We conduct a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) following existing guidelines to identify primary papers that d...

Hossain, Emam; Ali Babar, Muhammad; Paik, Hye-young; Verner, June

2009-01-01

204

The role of food chain traceability in food risk mitigation: expert and consumer outlook  

OpenAIRE

The European Union has enforced mandatory traceability for food business operators for effective monitoring and management of risks associated with food and feed chains. The implementation of such a system needs to take account of stakeholder priorities and expectations. Expert stakeholders (such as food risk managers) and lay public may have different opinions about, and expectations from, food and ingredient traceability. The present article provides an overview of expert and lay perspectiv...

Frewer, L. J.; Kher, S. V.

2009-01-01

205

Design of an Expert System for Mitigating Trace Element Toxicity in Cancer Risk Management  

OpenAIRE

Cancer risk management involves obliterating excess concentration of cancer causing trace elements by the natural immune system and hence intake of nutritious diet is of paramount importance. Human diet should consist of essential macronutrients that have to be consumed in large quantities and trace elements are to be consumed in very little amount. As some of these trace elements are causative factors for various types of cancer and build up at the expense of macronutrients, cancer risk mana...

Krishna Kumar, P. T.; Vinod, P. T.; Phoha, Vir V.; Iyengar, S. S.; Puneeth Iyengar

2013-01-01

206

L-Band Digital Aeronautical Communications System Engineering - Initial Safety and Security Risk Assessment and Mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract NNC05CA85C, Task 7: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed L-band (960 to 1164 MHz) terrestrial en route communications system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents a preliminary safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the L-band communication system after the technology is chosen and system rollout timing is determined. The security risk analysis resulted in identifying main security threats to the proposed system as well as noting additional threats recommended for a future security analysis conducted at a later stage in the system development process. The document discusses various security controls, including those suggested in the COCR Version 2.0.

Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

2011-01-01

207

Joint System Prognostics For Increased Efficiency And Risk Mitigation In Advanced Nuclear Reactor Instrumentation and Control  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The science of prognostics is analogous to a doctor who, based on a set of symptoms and patient tests, assesses a probable cause, the risk to the patient, and a course of action for recovery. While traditional prognostics research has focused on the aspect of hydraulic and mechanical systems and associated failures, this project will take a joint view in focusing not only on the digital I&C aspect of reliability and risk, but also on the risks associated with the human element. Model development will not only include an approximation of the control system physical degradation but also on human performance degradation. Thus the goal of the prognostic system is to evaluate control room operation; to identify and potentially take action when performance degradation reduces plant efficiency, reliability or safety.

Donald D. Dudenhoeffer; Tuan Q. Tran; Ronald L. Boring; Bruce P. Hallbert

2006-08-01

208

Risk constraint measures developed for the outcome-based strategy for tank waste management  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This report is one of a series of supporting documents for the outcome-based characterization strategy developed by PNNL. This report presents a set of proposed risk measures with risk constraint (acceptance) levels for use in the Value of Information process used in the NCS. The characterization strategy has developed a risk-based Value of Information (VOI) approach for comparing the cost-effectiveness of characterizing versus mitigating particular waste tanks or tank clusters. The preference between characterizing or mitigating in order to prevent an accident depends on the cost of those activities relative to the cost of the consequences of the accident. The consequences are defined as adverse impacts measured across a broad set of risk categories such as worker dose, public cancers, ecological harm, and sociocultural impacts. Within each risk measure, various {open_quotes}constraint levels{close_quotes} have been identified that reflect regulatory standards or conventionally negotiated thresholds of harm to Hanford resources and values. The cost of consequences includes the {open_quotes}costs{close_quote} of exceeding those constraint levels as well as a strictly linear costing per unit of impact within each of the risk measures. In actual application, VOI based-decision making is an iterative process, with a preliminary low-precision screen of potential technical options against the major risk constraints, followed by VOI analysis to determine the cost-effectiveness of gathering additional information and to select a preferred technical option, and finally a posterior screen to determine whether the preferred option meets all relevant risk constraints and acceptability criteria.

Harper, B.L.; Gajewski, S.J.; Glantz, C.L. [and others

1996-09-01

209

Environmental benefits and risks of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI): risk mitigation or trade-off?  

Science.gov (United States)

The use of nanoscaled particles in environmental remediation is gaining increasing amounts of attention in recent years, including the use of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI) for soil and groundwater remediation. The main advantages of its use include high degrees of reactivity towards a wide range of contaminants, enhanced mobility of the often coated particles, and its cost-effective in situ applications. Numerous studies have shown that compared to larger sized iron particles nZVI may have some superior properties, due to high surface areas and small sizes associated with nanoscale dimensions. While the use and further development of nZVI is understandably heralded as an environmentally-beneficial technology, the potentials risks of introducing these nanoparticles into the environment also needs to be considered. To date most research has focused on the potential benefits of nZVI and very little research has investigated its potential health and environmental risks. Nonetheless, some recent studies have documented adverse effects from its exposure including the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS), oxidative stress, bactericidal effects, DNA damage, and inflammatory responses. Moreover, field site injections often involve the use of large quantities of nZVI (10-50 g/L) which may be directly injected into groundwater flow. Combined with the pursuit of designing more mobile and reactive particles, this may potentially lead to risks related to environmental exposures of substantial concentrations. In this study, we provide a brief synopsis of the expected environmental benefits and potential risks of nZVI, particularly focusing on its environmental fate and behavior and potential role as contaminant carrier. These are some areas of primary concern for risk assessors. Furthermore, we estimate and compare the span between probable environmental concentrations from its use in the field and concentrations which have been shown to cause adverse effects in laboratory settings. This is in light of the challenges that quantitative risk assessments face for nZVI and other nanoparticles, in part due to extensive and fundamental uncertainties. These data may provide a starting point to more thoroughly investigate the potential risks of nZVI and ultimately help scientists, engineers, and decision makers make better informed decisions regarding the use of nZVI for environmental remediation.

Grieger, K.; Fjordbøge, A.; Hartmann, N.; Eriksson, E.; Baun, A.

2009-12-01

210

Environmental benefits and risks of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI): risk mitigation or trade-off?  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

The use of nanoscaled particles in environmental remediation is gaining increasing amounts of attention in recent years, including the use of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI) for soil and groundwater remediation. The main advantages of its use include high degrees of reactivity towards a wide range of contaminants, enhanced mobility of the often coated particles, and its cost-effective in situ applications. Numerous studies have shown that compared to larger sized iron particles nZVI may have some superior properties, due to high surface areas and small sizes associated with nanoscale dimensions. While the use and further development of nZVI is understandably heralded as an environmentally-beneficial technology, the potentials risks of introducing these nanoparticles into the environment also needs to be considered. To date most research has focused on the potential benefits of nZVI and very little research has investigated its potential health and environmental risks. Nonetheless, some recent studies have documented adverse effects from its exposure including the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS), oxidative stress, bactericidal effects, DNA damage, and inflammatory responses. Moreover, field site injections often involve the use of large quantities of nZVI (10-50 g/L) which may be directly injected into groundwater flow. Combined with the pursuit of designing more mobile and reactive particles, this may potentially lead to risks related to environmental exposures of substantial concentrations. In this study, we provide a brief synopsis of the expected environmental benefits and potential risks of nZVI, particularly focusing on its environmental fate and behavior and potential role as contaminant carrier. These are some areas of primary concern for risk assessors. Furthermore, we estimate and compare the span between probable environmental concentrations from its use in the field and concentrations which have been shown to cause adverse effects in laboratory settings. This is in light of the challenges that quantitative risk assessments face for nZVI and other nanoparticles, in part due to extensive and fundamental uncertainties. These data may provide a starting point to more thoroughly investigate the potential risks of nZVI and ultimately help scientists, engineers, and decision makers make better informed decisions regarding the use of nZVI for environmental remediation.

Grieger, Khara Deanne; FjordbØge, Annika Sidelmann

2009-01-01

211

Downgrading Complexity in the Exxon Valdez Crisis: Using Information as a Risk Mitigation Tool in Complex Adaptive Systems  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available

 

In a high-stakes crisis environment, trial and error can be too costly an approach. The Exxon Valdez oil spill provides an example of how complex adaptive systems can have simple, preventable problems and complex, unpredictable problems can come together with disastrous consequences. Not every possible contingency can be accounted for. However, research and experience can be applied to mitigate these types of risks by using information to reduce or "downgrade" the complexity of the contributing situations. The Cynefin contexts of complexity can be used to assess problems when they arise. Downgrading the level of complexity for a given problem can turn formerly complex or complicated situations into simple ones that require less knowledge and resources to resolve and can reduce the risk of failure. The possibility and consequences of failure may remain, but downgraded complexity can reduce the likelihood of this failure and make problems more manageable when they do occur.

Eric Snow

2010-11-01

212

Risk measures in living probabilistic safety assessment  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The main objectives of the study are: to define risk measures and suggested uses of them in various living PSA applications for the operational safety management and to describe specific model features required for living PSA applications. The report is based on three case studies performed within the Nordic research project Safety Evaluation by Use of Living PSA and Safety Indicators. (48 refs., 11 figs., 17 tabs.)

213

Residents in a high radon potential geographic area: Their risk perception and attitude toward testing and mitigation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boone County, Indiana was identified by the EPA as one of the high radon potential geographic areas. Health education campaigns are needed to prevent resident's unnecessary radon exposure. In order to design suitable programs, a questionnaire mail survey was conducted to measure socio-demographic characteristics of County resident's knowledge about radon, attitude toward radon testing and mitigation, support of education campaigns, and the best media to deliver radon education campaigns. A stratified random sampling method was applied for a total of 400 samples. The number of samples from each township/city was a proportion of their taxable parcels. The survey return rate was 39.8%. The data were analyzed by Epi Info and SPSS. The statistical significant level was set at ? = 0.05. The results showed that resident's knowledge about radon was at a relatively superficial level. There was no association identified between the knowledge of radon and gender, age, family income, or education, except that females more frequently believed in false effects caused by radon. A significant correlation between radon knowledge and home radon tests was observed. Also found in this study was that respondents with better knowledge about diseases caused by radon had more confidence in radon mitigation actions. Newspaper was chosen by respondents as the most favorite media to deliver radon health education campaigns. Health education campaigns for the residents of Boone County might be r the residents of Boone County might be conducted by local governments and/or other organizations

214

Policies and Measures to Realise Industrial Energy Efficiency and Mitigate Climate Change  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The industrial sector is responsible for a significant share of global energy use and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Energy efficiency is commonly seen as the most cost-effective, least-polluting, and most readily-accessible industrial energy saving option available in the industrial sector worldwide. Capturing the full extent of these potential end-use energy efficiency improvements rapidly is essential if the world is to be on a path to stabilise greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations to a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. In the International Energy Agency (IEA) 450 parts per million stabilisation scenario, over a quarter of all energy efficiency gains need to come from the industrial sector by 2050, largely by changing the pattern of industrial energy use. The reduction potential estimated by IEA and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for five energy-intensive industrial sub-sectors ranges from about 10 to 40 per cent, depending upon the sector. There is significant potential to reduce, at low or no cost, the amount of energy used to manufacture most commodities. Many policies and programmes - at a national level - have already demonstrated significant improvements in industrial energy efficiency. The associate reduction in energy needs often also improves economic competitiveness as well as mitigates GHG emissions. However, at an international level, approaches such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) are not yet delivering the expected energy efficiency improvements. Existing and effective industrial energy efficiency policies and measures could be replicated at a global level. Key elements of those policies and measures include increasing facility management attention to the issue of energy efficiency; promoting the dissemination of information, practice, and tools; increasing the auditing and implementation capacity; and developing the market for industrial energy efficiency investment. Better energy efficiency can produce substantial benefits both for global economic growth and poverty reduction as well as for mitigating climate change. The paper details examples of effective industrial energy efficiency policies and programmes. It provides a list of recommended actions to accelerate the adoption of industrial energy efficiency technologies and practices. Many policies and programmes have elements which seem likely to be readily deployable, replicable and transferable. A successful post-Kyoto architecture, regardless of its specifics, should therefore enable these elements see the light of reality

215

Middle Man Concept for In-Orbit Collision Risks Mitigation, CAESAR and CARA Examples  

Science.gov (United States)

This paper describes the conjunction analysis which has to be performed using data provided by JSpOC. This description not only demonstrates that Collision Avoidance is a 2- step process (close approach detection followed by risk evaluation for collision avoidance decision) but also leads to the conclusion that there is a need for a Middle Man role. After describing the Middle Man concept, this paper introduces two examples with their similarities and particularities: the American civil space effort delivered by the NASA CARA team (Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis) and the French response CAESAR (Conjunction Assessment and Evaluation Service: Alerts and Recommendations). For both, statistics are presented and feedbacks discussed. All together, around 80 satellites are served by CARA and/or CAESAR. Both processes regularly evolve in order either to follow JSpOC upgrades or to improve analysis according to experience acquired during the past years.

Moury, Monique; Newman, Lauri K.; Laporte, Francois

2014-01-01

216

Arsenic Contamination of Groundwater: A Review of Sources, Prevalence, Health Risks, and Strategies for Mitigation  

OpenAIRE

Arsenic contamination of groundwater in different parts of the world is an outcome of natural and/or anthropogenic sources, leading to adverse effects on human health and ecosystem. Millions of people from different countries are heavily dependent on groundwater containing elevated level of As for drinking purposes. As contamination of groundwater, poses a serious risk to human health. Excessive and prolonged exposure of inorganic As with drinking water is causing arsenicosis, a deteriorating...

Shiv Shankar; Uma Shanker; Shikha*1

2014-01-01

217

Development of a Meteorological Risk Map for Disaster Mitigation and Management in the Chishan Basin, Taiwan  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This study involved developing a natural disaster risk assessment framework based on the consideration of three phases: a pre-disaster phase, disaster impact phase, and post-disaster recovery phase. The exposure of natural disasters exhibits unique characteristics. The interactions of numerous factors should be considered in risk assessment as well as in monitoring environment to provide natural disaster warnings. In each phase, specific factors indicate the relative status in the area subjected to risk assessment. Three types of natural disaster were assessed, namely debris flows, floods, and droughts. The Chishan basin in Taiwan was used as a case study and the adequacy of the relocation of Xiaolin village was evaluated. Incorporating resilience into the assessment revealed that the higher the exposure is, the higher the resilience becomes. This is because highly populated areas are typically allocated enough resources to respond to disasters. In addition, highly populated areas typically exhibit high resilience. The application of this analysis in the policy of relocation of damaged village after disaster provides valuable information for decision makers to achieve the sustainability of land use planning.

Tai-Li Lee

2015-01-01

218

Approach for Mitigating Pressure Garment Design Risks in a Mobile Lunar Surface Systems Architecture  

Science.gov (United States)

The stated goals of the 2004 Vision for Space Exploration focus on establishing a human presence throughout the solar system beginning with the establishment of a permanent human presence on the Moon. However, the precise objectives to be accomplished on the lunar surface and the optimal system architecture to achieve those objectives have been a topic of much debate since the inception of the Constellation Program. There are two basic styles of system architectures being traded at the Programmatic level: a traditional large outpost that would focus on techniques for survival off our home planet and a greater depth of exploration within one area, or a mobile approach- akin to a series of nomadic camps- that would allow greater breadth of exploration opportunities. The traditional outpost philosophy is well within the understood pressure garment design space with respect to developing interfaces and operational life cycle models. The mobile outpost, however, combines many unknowns with respect to pressure garment performance and reliability that could dramatically affect the cost and schedule risks associated with the Constellation space suit system. This paper provides an overview of the concepts being traded for a mobile architecture from the operations and hardware implementation perspective, describes the primary risks to the Constellation pressure garment associated with each of the concepts, and summarizes the approach necessary to quantify the pressure garment design risks to enable the Constellation Program to make informed decisions when deciding on an overall lunar surface systems architecture.

Aitchison, Lindsay

2009-01-01

219

Wildlife damages, mitigation measures and livelihood issues around Chitwan National Park, Nepal  

OpenAIRE

Human-wildlife conflict is closely associated with the economics and social well being of the local people. It occurs worldwide and its frequency and severity have been rising annually, especially in Chitwan National Park. Crop damage and loss of livestock by wildlife from park are some of the major causes of park-people conflict in Chitwan National Park. In response to these damages, local people employ different defensive measures to alleviate the losses or reduce the risk of wildlife damag...

Upadhyay, Saroj

2014-01-01

220

Full-Scaled Advanced Systems Testbed: Ensuring Success of Adaptive Control Research Through Project Lifecycle Risk Mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Dryden Flight Research Center completed flight testing of adaptive controls research on the Full-Scale Advance Systems Testbed (FAST) in January of 2011. The research addressed technical challenges involved with reducing risk in an increasingly complex and dynamic national airspace. Specific challenges lie with the development of validated, multidisciplinary, integrated aircraft control design tools and techniques to enable safe flight in the presence of adverse conditions such as structural damage, control surface failures, or aerodynamic upsets. The testbed is an F-18 aircraft serving as a full-scale vehicle to test and validate adaptive flight control research and lends a significant confidence to the development, maturation, and acceptance process of incorporating adaptive control laws into follow-on research and the operational environment. The experimental systems integrated into FAST were designed to allow for flexible yet safe flight test evaluation and validation of modern adaptive control technologies and revolve around two major hardware upgrades: the modification of Production Support Flight Control Computers (PSFCC) and integration of two, fourth-generation Airborne Research Test Systems (ARTS). Post-hardware integration verification and validation provided the foundation for safe flight test of Nonlinear Dynamic Inversion and Model Reference Aircraft Control adaptive control law experiments. To ensure success of flight in terms of cost, schedule, and test results, emphasis on risk management was incorporated into early stages of design and flight test planning and continued through the execution of each flight test mission. Specific consideration was made to incorporate safety features within the hardware and software to alleviate user demands as well as into test processes and training to reduce human factor impacts to safe and successful flight test. This paper describes the research configuration, experiment functionality, overall risk mitigation, flight test approach and results, and lessons learned of adaptive controls research of the Full-Scale Advanced Systems Testbed.

Pavlock, Kate M.

2011-01-01

221

Risk Mitigation in the Development of a Roebel Cable Based 1 MVA HTS Transformer  

Science.gov (United States)

Progress is reported on the development of a 3-phase 1 MVA 11 kV/415 V HTS transformer using Roebel cable for the secondary windings. We describe efforts to address risks associated with short circuits, insulation, and heat transfer. We present modelling results for the response of the windings to a short circuit. Sample strands have been tested to demonstrate that cables immersed in liquid nitrogen can survive short circuits. The primary windings use insulated conductor to withstand computed impulse voltages. Breakdown and partial discharge testing confirms that the production insulation scheme is adequate for our design. Heat transfer results are presented for a sample Roebel cable winding

Glasson, Neil; Staines, Mike; Badcock, Rod; Ward, Logan; Allpress, Nathan; Thakur, Kailash; Pannu, Mohinder

222

Using inferred drivers of discarding behaviour to evaluate discard mitigation measures  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Discards refer to the part of the catch not retained on board during commercial fishing operations, but returned to the sea. The proposed European Union Common Fisheries Policy reform, to be implemented in 2014, sets out a gradual elimination of discards by reducing unwanted catches and ensuring that all catches are landed. To develop successful discard mitigation measures, it is necessary to identify the reasons for discarding. Here, we have developed a simple model that can be applied to data from observer programmes (ObsPs) to establish the contribution of different drivers of discarding behaviour. The analysis makes inferences on the causes of discarding by partitioning discards into four categories based on the length of the fish and the associated regulatory restrictions. The drivers are defined as: fish discarded below the legalminimum landing size; fish forwhich there is no market and that do not have aminimum landing size; fish for which there are inconsistencies in market and sorting practices; and discards that can be attributed to fishers’ responses to quota restrictions. The approach is applied to data generated from ObsPs from five EuropeanMember States. All the inferred drivers contribute to the total discard quantity. Their relative contributions vary widely across countries, areas, gears, and species

Catchpole, T.L.; Feekings, Jordan P.

2014-01-01

223

Risky business. Fossil risk mitigation and enhanced energy security from renewables  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

It is argued that the cost estimates associated with the development and diversification of energy policies may be flawed. The document points out that renewables such as wind can be used as a hedge against risk in a balanced portfolio. The calculation of future generating costs is a crucial factor to be taken into account but the figures for the future are highly uncertain. It is argued that traditional electricity costs, in terms of kWh, are unreliable and should be given little weight in energy policy deliberations. It is suggested that investor groups should be asked to submit firm fixed-price bids for providing wind, coal and gas-base electricity over the next 25-30 years. Wind and other fixed-cost energy sources can help nations avoid costly economic consequences stemming from fluctuation in the price of oil

224

HOW TO MITIGATE THE RISKS OF MANAGING ONLINE ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS BY TRAINING WITH SIMBOUND SIMULATION GAME  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This paper aims to describe how a digital marketing simulation system improve the knowledge and skills of students, as well as their status as members of a virtual community, which gradually evolve from novice to expert in managing online advertising campaigns. The body of the article encompasses three contributions: the know-how of the Simbound Game author, the practical experiences of an instructor, who coordinated students’ activities during three courses and of a Master student – the leader of a team which got the first position after the completion of a game. The advantages of managing no-risk online advertising campaigns are revealed and the students are able to understand how various online marketing tools become useful while a firm expands its operations in e-commerce and must fulfill new tasks and responsibilities. The paper concludes with the practical implications of the Simbound simulation-based learning and the ideas included in the future research agenda.

Louis Doru Havriliuc

2013-12-01

225

Performance evaluating of the AP1000 passive safety systems for mitigation of small break loss of coolant accident using risk assessment tool-II software  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The SBLOCA CDF has been estimated to be 1.934E-8/year, using RAT II. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The simplicity and passive safety systems result in decrease in the probability of CCF. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer However, the importance analysis ranks the CCF as the greatest contributor in CDF. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Automatic and manual actuation failure probabilities have been founded to have low contribution in the SBLOCA CDF. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The analysis assesses the performance of passive safety systems and reveals the deficiencies. - Abstract: The successful performance of defense barriers in the operating nuclear power plants is vital to avoid any release of highly radioactive fission products. Passive safety systems, independent of the electrical power, are implemented in modern NPPs to improve their reliability on demand. In this study, the SB-LOCA CDF is evaluated for the AP1000 to assess the performance of passive safety systems. The core damage states are examined to identify the most considerable risk contributors. Besides, importance measures rank the failures. Risk assessment tool-II has been designed and developed, in the safety research center of Shiraz University, to develop the PSA level 1 models. Using redundant passive and diverse reliable safety systems result in the low CDF of SB-LOCA (i.e. 1.934E-08). Considering the dominant sequences indicates that relying on passive automatic actuation mitigating processes, independent of operator actuations and electrical motive power leads to the considerable decrease in the probability of common cause failures and the CDF. However, importance analysis reveals the high contribution of CCF{sub B}Es in the SB-LOCA CDF. The results identify the weak points of operation and the most important risk contributors, in order to improve the inadequacies in design, test and maintenance and required human actions.

Kamyab, Shahabeddin [School of Engineering, Shiraz University, 71348-51154 Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Nematollahi, Mohammadreza, E-mail: nema@shirazu.ac.ir [School of Engineering, Shiraz University, 71348-51154 Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Safety Research Center of Shiraz University, 71348-51154 Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2012-12-15

226

Performance evaluating of the AP1000 passive safety systems for mitigation of small break loss of coolant accident using risk assessment tool-II software  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Highlights: ? The SBLOCA CDF has been estimated to be 1.934E?8/year, using RAT II. ? The simplicity and passive safety systems result in decrease in the probability of CCF. ? However, the importance analysis ranks the CCF as the greatest contributor in CDF. ? Automatic and manual actuation failure probabilities have been founded to have low contribution in the SBLOCA CDF. ? The analysis assesses the performance of passive safety systems and reveals the deficiencies. - Abstract: The successful performance of defense barriers in the operating nuclear power plants is vital to avoid any release of highly radioactive fission products. Passive safety systems, independent of the electrical power, are implemented in modern NPPs to improve their reliability on demand. In this study, the SB-LOCA CDF is evaluated for the AP1000 to assess the performance of passive safety systems. The core damage states are examined to identify the most considerable risk contributors. Besides, importance measures rank the failures. Risk assessment tool-II has been designed and developed, in the safety research center of Shiraz University, to develop the PSA level 1 models. Using redundant passive and diverse reliable safety systems result in the low CDF of SB-LOCA (i.e. 1.934E?08). Considering the dominant sequences indicates that relying on passive automatic actuation mitigating processes, independent of operator actuations and electrical motive power leads to the considerable decrads to the considerable decrease in the probability of common cause failures and the CDF. However, importance analysis reveals the high contribution of CCFBEs in the SB-LOCA CDF. The results identify the weak points of operation and the most important risk contributors, in order to improve the inadequacies in design, test and maintenance and required human actions.

227

Modelling the impacts of climate change on muddy flooding and the effectiveness of mitigation measures in Flanders, Belgium  

Science.gov (United States)

The 'off-site' impacts of soil erosion have become a major source of concern in Europe and elsewhere during recent decades. This is due, in part, to the environmental damage and economic costs associated with 'muddy flooding.' Muddy floods occur when large volumes of runoff are generated on agricultural land, triggering the detachment and transport of sediment. This may then be deposited in neighbouring settlements. The Belgian loess belt is particularly vulnerable to muddy floods since loess-derived soils are susceptible to crusting, which decreases their infiltration rates and promotes high levels of runoff and erosion. Severe economic damages in many Flemish municipalities led to government provision of funding for voluntary mitigation measures from 2001. In the Melsterbeek catchment, where several villages have been particularly affected by severe muddy floods, mitigation measures have been implemented and their effectiveness subsequently monitored. Runoff, erosion and the occurrence of muddy floods have all considerably decreased. The scheme was cost-effective within three years. The success of these mitigation measures may diminish over the coming decades, however, as climate change poses new threats ranging from direct changes in rainfall intensity to the indirect effects of climate-driven shifts in land use. Such changes could potentially generate increased runoff over agricultural land and lead to a resurgence of muddy flooding in vulnerable areas, with severe repercussions for the effectiveness of mitigation measures. In this study, we model the impacts of climate change on muddy flooding for a hillslope in the Melsterbeek catchment where mitigation measures have been implemented, enabling us to quantify the threat which climate change poses to their effectiveness. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) was employed. Model data for present-day conditions were perturbed with future climate change parameters derived from statistical downscaling methods, and for land use change projections developed using a scenarios-based framework. Results reveal that existing mitigation measures may become compromised under a selection of future scenarios of climate and land use. Future efforts at conservation may need to become more flexible to remain effective in the changing environment of the coming decades.

Mullan, Donal; Vandaele, Karel; Boardman, John; Favis-Mortlock, Dave

2014-05-01

228

Granulation-based Measure for Risk Assessment  

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Full Text Available The weighted method is the most often used operators to aggregate criteria in decision making problems with the assumption that there are no interactions among criteria while in the real world, most criteria have inter-dependent or interactive characteristics. The discrete Choquet integral is a more suitable aggregation operator as it takes into accounts the interactions and not assuming the additivity and independence. This study proposes a granulation-based method to construct fuzzy measures needed by the discrete Choquet integral and a real data set is analyzed. The advantage of the granulation-based method is that no population probability is to be estimated such that the error of estimating the population probability is reduced. Three methods, including weighted sum method, the discrete Choquet integral with the entropy-based method and our proposed discrete Choquet integral with the granulation-based method, are used in this study to evaluate the enterprise financial risk based on a comprehensive assessment of the financial risk by multiple discriminant analysis. The results show that the discrete Choquet integral with the granulation-based method outperform the weighted sum method and the discrete Choquet integral with the entropy-based method in the evaluation of enterprise financial risk.

Xi-Hua Li

2013-01-01

229

Soil physical conditions as livestock treading effect in tropical Agroecosystem of dryland and strategies to mitigate desertification risk  

Science.gov (United States)

Soil degradation in natural ecosystem of arid and semi-arid zones of Venezuela due to livestock treading (goats) it is an important problem that affect their environment functions; increase soil erodibility, bulk density, water losses and reduce porosity, water infiltration rate and soil structural stability. The presence of biological crust (BSC) in this type of soil it is very common. The objective of this study was to evaluate the soil surface physical quality through the use of selected indicators, mainly some of that related to structural stability, infiltrability and the prediction of soil erosion risk in two zones of Lara state: 1) Quíbor (QUI) and 2) Humocaro Bajo (HB). The study was conducted on two selected plots (30 m x 20 m) in each zone, with natural vegetation and BSC cover, with areas affected by different degree of compaction due to treading in the paths where the goats are moving. Five sites per plot (50 cm x 50 cm) under vegetation cover and five sites over the path with bare soil were sampled (0-7,5 and 7,5-15 cm depth). The results showed that soil macroaggregate stability (equivalent diameter of aggregates >0,25 mm) was significantly higher (phigher quality level than bare soils. Some predictive regression equation had a high R2 value and was a useful tool for to evaluate the risk of extreme climatic changes and to mitigate their detrimental effects. We conclude that the global climatic change (CCG) will have a negative effect on these agroecosystems functions, mainly in soil and water conservation, carbon sequestration, and productivity. Natural recovery of soil physical properties from treading damage of pastoral soils will be possible in the future with the implementation of soil management strategies, mainly through re-vegetation and recuperation of the BSC. Key word: Soil structure; aggregate stability; soil sealing index; hydraulic conductivity of surface sealing.

Florentino, A.; Torres, D.; Ospina, A.; Contreras, J.; Palma, Z.; Silvera, J.

2012-04-01

230

Risk Mitigation Approach to Commercial Resupply to the International Space Station  

Science.gov (United States)

In August 2006, NASA awarded Space Act Agreements (SAAs) for Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) under the Commercial Crew and Cargo Project Office at Johnson Space Center. One of the goals of the SAAs is to facilitate U.S. private industry demonstration of cargo transportation capabilities, ultimately achieving reliable, cost effective access to low-Earth orbit (LEO). Each COTS provider is required to complete International Space Stations (ISS) Integration activities, which includes meeting the physical and functional interfaces and interface requirements between the ISS and COTS vehicles. These requirements focus on the areas of risk to the ISS during rendezvous and proximity operations, as well as the integration operations while the COTS vehicle is berthed to the ISS. On December 23, 2008, NASA awarded Commercial Resupply Service (CRS) contracts to provide resupply services to the ISS, following the Shuttle retirement. In addition to performing any ISS Integration activities, NASA will be performing independent assessments of the launch vehicle and orbital vehicle to evaluate the readiness of the contractor to deliver NASA cargo safely to the ISS. This paper will address the activities NASA Centers, both JSC and KSC, in the oversight and insight function over commercial visiting vehicles to the ISS.

Koons, Diane S.; Schreiber, Craig

2010-01-01

231

Post-harvest quality risks by stress/ethylene: management to mitigate.  

Science.gov (United States)

Fresh produce, in actual fact, is exposed to multiple stresses through entire post-harvest phase such as handling, storage and distribution. The biotic stresses are associated with various post-harvest diseases leading to massive produce loss. Abiotic stresses such as drought, heat and chilling cause cell weakening, membrane leakage, flavour loss, surface pitting, internal browning, textural changes, softening and mealiness of post-harvest produce. A burst in 'stress ethylene' formation makes post-harvest produce to be at high risk for over-ripening, decay, deterioration, pathogen attack and physiological disorders. The mutation study of genes and receptors involved in ethylene signal transduction shows reduced sensitivity to bind ethylene resulting in delayed ripening and longer shelf life of produce. This review is aimed to highlight the various detrimental effects of stress/ethylene on quality of post-harvest produce, primarily fruits, with special emphasize to its subsequent practical management involving the 'omics' tools. The outcome of the literature appraised herein will help us to understand the physiological and molecular bases of stress/ethylene which sustain fruit quality at post-harvest phase. PMID:25091877

Ansari, Mohammad W; Tuteja, Narendra

2015-01-01

232

Landslide-dammed lake at Tangjiashan, Sichuan province, China (triggered by the Wenchuan Earthquake, May 12, 2008): Risk assessment, mitigation strategy, and lessons learned  

Science.gov (United States)

Landslides and rock avalanches triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake produced 257 landslide dams, mainly situated along the eastern boundary of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau where rivers descend approximately 3,000 m into the Sichuan Basin. The largest of these dams blocked the Tongkou River (a tributary of the Fujiang River) at Tangjiashan. The blockage, consisting of 2. 04 ?? 10 7 m 3 of landslide debris, impounded a lake with a projected maximum volume of 3. 15 ?? 10 8 m 3, potentially inundating 8. 92 km 2 of terrain. Its creation during the rainy season and the possibility of an uncontrolled release posed a serious, impending threat to at least 1. 3 million people downstream that could add substantially to the total of 69,200 individuals directly killed by the earthquake. Risk assessment of the blockage indicated that it was unlikely to collapse suddenly, and that eventual overtopping could be mitigated by notching the structure in order to create an engineered breach and achieve safe drainage of the lake. In addition to the installation of monitoring and warning instrumentation, for emergency planning we estimated several outburst scenarios equivalent to 20, 25, 33, and 50% of the dam failing suddenly, creating, respectively, 3. 35, 3. 84, 4. 22, and 4. 65 km 2 of flooded area, and overbank water depths of 4. 6, 5. 1, 5. 7, and 6. 2 m, respectively, in Mianyang, the second largest city in Sichuan Province, 48 km downstream from the blockage. Based on these scenarios, recommendations and plans for excavating a sluiceway, draining the lake, and downstream evacuation were proposed and later were implemented successfully, with the blockage breached by overtopping on June 10, less than a month after dam emplacement. The peak discharge of the release only slightly exceeded the flood of record at Mianyang City. No lives were lost, and significant property damage was avoided. Post-breaching evaluation reveals how future similar mitigation can be improved. Although initial breach erosion was slow, later erosion was judged uncontrollably rapid; increased slope of the engineered channel and adoption of a compound, trapezoid-triangular cross-section can be considered, as can other measures to control the rate of breach incision. Evacuees from Mianyang City spent an unnecessarily long time (12 days) in temporary settlements; more precise risk management planning can reduce this time in the future. ?? 2010 Springer-Verlag.

Cui, P.; Dang, C.; Zhuang, J.; You, Y.; Chen, X.; Scott, K.M.

2012-01-01

233

Risk evaluation of the alternate-3A modification to the ATWS prevention/mitigation system in a BWR-4, MARK-II power plant  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The authors present a risk evaluation of the ATWS Alternate 3A modification proposed by NRC staff in NUREG-0460 to the ATWS prevention/mitigation system in a BWR nuclear power plant. The evaluation is done relative to three risk indices: the frequency of core damage, the expected early fatalities, and the expected latent fatalities. The ATWS prevention tree includes: the mechanical subsystem of the reactor protection system, the electrical subsystem of the reactor protection system, the recirculation pump trip and the Alternate Rod Insertion System. The mitigation tree includes: standby liquid control system, opening of the relief valves, reclosing the relief valves, failure of coolant injection, inadvertent actuation of the automatic depressurization system, inadvertent operation of high-pressure injection system and containment heat removal

234

Recommendations for practical measures to mitigate the impact of aquaculture on the environment in three areas of the Philippines  

OpenAIRE

An assessment of the severity and extent of aquaculture impact and the estimation of sustainable carrying capacity were undertaken in three areas of the Philippines - Bolinao (marine site), Dagupan, (brackishwater) and Taal Lake (freshwater). This paper describes the potential mitigating measures that could be taken to reduce nutrient release from aquaculture, increase nutrient uptake using extractive species, and possible early warning systems for critical states of the tide when there is re...

Tarzan Legovi?; Guttorm Christensen; Rune Palerud; Patrick White; Regie Regpala

2008-01-01

235

Recommendations for practical measures to mitigate the impact of aquaculture on the environment in three areas of the Philippines  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available An assessment of the severity and extent of aquaculture impact and the estimation of sustainable carrying capacity were undertaken in three areas of the Philippines - Bolinao (marine site, Dagupan, (brackishwater and Taal Lake (freshwater. This paper describes the potential mitigating measures that could be taken to reduce nutrient release from aquaculture, increase nutrient uptake using extractive species, and possible early warning systems for critical states of the tide when there is reduced flushing.

Tarzan Legovi?

2008-12-01

236

The nitrogen fate beyond the current nutrient mitigation measures: sustainability of an integrated agriculture  

Science.gov (United States)

Located in the North-Western Europe the terrestrial continuum that includes the Seine, Somme, and Scheldt River basins offers an interesting example of a transborder territory (France, Belgium, and Netherlands) with high-intensity anthropogenic pressures. It well-illustrates the rapid development of modern agriculture in industrialised countries and the resulting severe alteration of water resources and jeopardising the capacity of rural territories to produce drinking water. The corresponding nutrient loads delivered then into the Southern Bight of the North Sea, strongly affect the ecological functioning of the coastal zone. An integrated ‘river-ocean’ assessment, coupling two deterministic models - the SENEQUE RIVESTRAHLER model simulating nutrient dynamic in the drainage network and the MIRO model describing the ecological functioning coastal ecosystem - points out the relevance of current policy based measures (improvement of waste water treatment) to mitigate phosphorous emissions, while the nitrogen pollution related to agriculture will remain critical despite the implementation of classical management measure (good agricultural practices). Therefore and irrespectively of the current political agenda, a more radical alternative is established, consisting of a generalised shift to an integrated agriculture of all agricultural areas in the three basins, excluding the use of synthetically compounded fertilisers and the importation of livestock feed. Such scenario aims at evaluating whether agriculture, by essence, can conciliate (i) the demand for food and feed by local populations, (ii) a good ecological functioning of aquatic ecosystems and (iii) a balanced nutrient status for the adjacent coastal area. This scenario involves an increased livestock density in the Seine and Somme and a decrease in livestock in the Scheldt basin. It leads to a significant reduction of agricultural production that finally brings the three basins closer to autotrophy/heterotrophy equilibrium, while a persisting requirement of long-distance importation of meat and milk clearly emphasises the unsustainability of the increasing share of animal proteins in the modern human diet. In the more optimistic hypothesis, nitrate concentrations in most of the drainage network would drop below the threshold of 2.25 mgN/l (10 mgNO3/L) which is often considered a threshold for a good ecological status. The excess of nitrogen over silica (with respect to the requirements of marine diatoms) delivered into the coastal zones would be decreased by a factor from 2 to 5, thus strongly reducing, but not entirely eliminating the potential for marine eutrophication. Despite a lack a short-term realism, this alternative could appears - in the line of the ‘adapting mosaic’ defined by the Millenium Ecosystem Assessement - as an end-point situation to be compared when building future nutrient reduction policies and incentive agricultural measures.

Thieu, V.; Billen, G. F.; Garnier, J.; Lancelot, C.; Gypens, N.

2010-12-01

237

Groundwater and urbanisation, risks and mitigation: The case for the city of Windhoek, Namibia  

Science.gov (United States)

The City of Windhoek is underlain by the Kuiseb Schist, locally known as the “Windhoek Schist” and amphibolites. In the low-lying parts of the Windhoek valley, gravels and sands are present. The Windhoek schist has several lithologies, dominated by garnet-muscovite-chlorite-biotite schist, with distinctive cleavage. This pervasive cleavage renders the underlying lithology permeable to fluids percolating from the surface into the aquifer. Other minor lithologies are trachytes, metarhyolites and quartzites found to the east of the city. The amphibolite is part of the Matchless belt, and traverses the city in a NE-SW fashion. When weathered, it forms a perfect aquiclude. North-south and northeast-southwest trending faults with a few splays cut across the Kuiseb Schist. The faults play a significant role in increasing the fracture density of the fissile schist. The faults are the major links that form channels between the surface and the aquifer below. The city of Windhoek uses the aquifer both as a source of fresh water and as a storage facility. The recharge areas of the aquifer lie to the east and south- to southeast of the city in the vicinity of the suburb of Kleine Kuppe. The soil horizon over the Windhoek schist is very shallow and most buildings are built directly on bedrock. The thin soil horizon makes the aquifer prone to pollution, caused either by accidents such as spills or by carelessness due to unsupervised dumping. The fissility and fracture density of the schist imply that leakage of surface waters, phenols, septic-tank spills, sewer-bursts, chemical and industrial contaminants and other such materials can reach the aquifer in unusually high rainfall years. The effects of fuels and oils are much more adverse, as they may remain in soils for long periods. The rapid urbanization and building of informal settlements without sewage reticulation has increased the risk of pollution to the Windhoek aquifer. The close monitoring of sewage pipes, filling stations and dump sites (including cemeteries), preferably using a GIS-based model, is the best way to prevent future pollution.

Mapani, B. S.

238

A process-based model for the definition of hydrological alert systems in landslide risk mitigation  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The definition of hydrological alert systems for rainfall-induced landslides is strongly related to a deep knowledge of the geological and geomorphological features of the territory. Climatic conditions, spatial and temporal evolution of the phenomena and characterization of landslide triggering, together with propagation mechanisms, are the key elements to be considered. Critical steps for the development of the systems consist of the identification of the hydrological variable related to landslide triggering and of the minimum rainfall threshold for landslide occurrence.

In this paper we report the results from a process-based model to define a hydrological alert system for the Val di Maso Landslide, located in the northeastern Italian Alps and included in the Vicenza Province (Veneto region, NE Italy. The instability occurred in November 2010, due to an exceptional rainfall event that hit the Vicenza Province and the entire NE Italy. Up to 500 mm in 3-day cumulated rainfall generated large flood conditions and triggered hundreds of landslides. During the flood, the Soil Protection Division of the Vicenza Province received more than 500 warnings of instability phenomena. The complexity of the event and the high level of risk to infrastructure and private buildings are the main reasons for deepening the specific phenomenon occurred at Val di Maso.

Empirical and physically-based models have been used to identify the minimum rainfall threshold for the occurrence of instability phenomena in the crown area of Val di Maso landslide, where a retrogressive evolution by multiple rotational slides is expected. Empirical models helped in the identification and in the evaluation of recurrence of critical rainfall events, while physically-based modelling was essential to verify the effects on the slope stability of determined rainfall depths. Empirical relationships between rainfall and landslide consist of the calculation of rainfall Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF curves, which allow one to determine rainfall depth (or intensity as a function of duration for given return periods or probabilities of exceedance (frequencies. Physically-based modelling was performed through coupled seepage and slope stability analyses.

Combining results from empirical and physically-based modelling, the minimum alert threshold for a reactivation of the phenomenon was found in rainfall cumulated up to 60 days with a return period of 2 yr. These results were used to set up a hydrological alert system based on the calibration of DDF curves which can be used as a sort of abacus to plot in real time rainfall depths and to set increasing levels of alert on the basis of the degree of exceptionality of rainfall.

The alert system for Val di Maso was successfully tested by the rainfall events that produced displacements which have been recorded by extensometers placed in the crown area after the November 2010 landslide. However, further tests are recommendable to improve the process-based model that led to the implementation of the alert system. To this end, a monitoring system is currently being realized. In the near future, monitoring data will help in testing and improving landslide evolution and alert models.

The proposed hydrological alert system proves to be effective mainly because it can be applied to different scales of investigation and geological and geomorphological contexts. In fact, it might also be applicable to territorial scale analyses, as showed by the brief example provided in this paper on how the alert system could be used for landslide early warning in the area surrounding Val di Maso. Furthermore, it is easy to set up. The needed components are a rain gauge station, a software that compares rainfall data to rainfall events with different return periods and degree of alert, and a transmission system of the warning levels to authorities.

M. Floris

2012-11-01

239

A Note on a New Weighted Idiosyncratic Risk Measure  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This note remedies a risk measure, which was proposed by the work of Jan and Wang (2012. They used property of martingale to measure idiosyncratic risk, and illustrated that it is better than the measurements of variance and semivariance. However, their risk measure can’t distinguish between the assets whose return rising firstly and then declining, and the assets whose return declining firstly and then rising. In this note, I propose a remedied method, which puts more weight to the recent return’s variation, and demonstrate that the new weighting risk measure is more close to the investor risk conception.

Yin-Ching Jan

2014-06-01

240

Mitigation of Natural Hazards and Disasters. International Perspectives. Improving Access to Water Resources through Rainwater Harvesting as A Mitigation Measure. The Case of the Brazilian Semi-Arid Region  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper focuses on the importance of rainwater harvesting to mitigate the scarcity of water in the semi-arid region of Brazil. It is a case study about the Million Cisterns Project, an initiative developed by NGOs with the support of Brazilian Federal Government Institutions and international funding organizations. The project is innovative in a series of ways when compared to mitigation measures previously implemented by the government. Instead of focussing on short-term, top-down, palliative measures based on the construction of dams and wells, it focuses on low cost, bottom-up, long-term measures and, most importantly, it involves an educational component. Thus, the provision of water is closely related to the empowerment of the most destitute population and this leads to the sustainability of the actions. The case study serves to illustrate the relevance of the partnership between grassroots organizations and governmental institutions in the context of mitigation.

De Melo Branco, A.; Suassuna, J.; Adler Vainsencher, S. [Independent Consultant, Rua Cardeal Arcoverde, 100/701, Gracas, Recife, Pernambuco (Brazil)

2005-07-15

241

Climate change effects on mitigation measures: The case of extreme wind events and Philippines’ biofuel plan  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Biofuel production has increased dramatically over the past decade, among other to mitigate climate change. However, climate change vulnerability may currently not be sufficiently accounted for in national biofuel strategies, hence neglecting a possible link between mitigation and adaptation to climate change. To the best of our knowledge this potential link has received very little attention in the literature. One example is the Philippines, which is currently implementing an ambitious program of biofuel production. Its aim is to reduce dependency on imported fuel, increase rural employment and incomes, and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. The Philippines is frequently battered by tropical typhoons and from 1975 to 2002 the annual average damage to agriculture was 3.047 billion pesos. We calculate wind damage on biofuel feedstock production, and assess the effect that a future potential increase in tropical cyclone intensity would have on energy security, rural development and climate change mitigation in the Philippines. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to obtain the future expected development of typhoon impacts. Based on the Philippines legislated target of 10% biodiesel blend in gasoline by 2011, simulation of the affected area for each feedstock, and expected biofuel feedstock damage is computed for the Philippine's 80 provinces in 2050, for two different typhoon climate change scenarios. Additional indirect economic effects are assessed in a tentative way. Thffects are assessed in a tentative way. The results suggest a modest decrease in biofuel feedstock productivity at the national level, but with strong local differences that are shown to affect the Philippine's policy goals. In a broader perspective the paper accentuates a so far little described link between climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation. This link may merit further attention by policy makers and development planners in order to ensure that policies are economically sound not only in the short but also medium term.

242

A Brief Screening Measure of Adolescent Risk Behavior  

Science.gov (United States)

This study examined the factor structure and reliability of a brief but comprehensive measure, the adolescent risk inventory (ARI), designed to assess adolescent risk behaviors and attitudes. Measures assessing demographics and risk behaviors were administered to 134 youth (ages 12-19) in psychiatric treatment. A confirmatory factor analysis of…

Lescano, Celia M.; Hadley, Wendy S.; Beausoleil, Nancy I.; Brown, Larry K.; D'eramo, Domenic; Zimskind, Abigail

2007-01-01

243

Two dimensional CFD analysis of shock wave propagation for developing mitigation measures of severe accident explosive loads  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

After Fukushima accident, a new need is raised for preserving integrity of vital components and structures in a nuclear power plant against blast waves from hydrogen and steam explosion during a severe accident. A research is underway for developing hydrodynamic and/or mechanical measures for mitigating such shock waves. For the research, an analysis methodology and its validation for shock wave propagation through diverse media of air, water or mixture and reflection/damping via such measures is important. As a starting point of the development, CFD method is applied for prediction of shock wave propagation in an existing shock tube experiment. And the results are discussed by comparing with previous analyses

244

The Belgian Risk Perception Barometer Risk Perception Measuring Instruments Revisited  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The recognition of the societal dimension of risk assessment has been at the cradle of the opinion research on risks. Since risk estimates are not fixed by experts anymore, but are considered to show variation across a diverse population, the people themselves must be asked how they experience the risks. Following the rise in popularity of risk assessment and the recognition of its 'human' dimension, the demand for public opinion surveys on risks has been increasing at a fast pace. Unfortunately, this high demand sees some negative consequences. First, surveys are frequently conducted by people lacking even a minimal knowledge of survey methodology. In this respect, we might think of a journal or a newspaper trying to impress their readers with the definitive public opinion poll about the latest issue in vogue. Second, time pressure causes experienced or trained researchers to lower themselves to 'quick and dirty' work. While methodologically flawed opinion research might not be something to worry about when appearing in the amusement press, concern is due if the results of a survey inspire policy development. Indeed, when public opinion research is conceived as an instrument to support rational, evidence based public policy, the strictest methodological standards should be applied, even if it is clear that scientific research will never substitute political reasoning. This contribution deals with the safeguarding and enhancing of the quality of large scale surveys focusing on risk perception and related issues. This attention is relevant, not only for the reason that methodological standards may be flawed due to the immense popularity of the opinion poll, but also because the results of opinion surveys may have far-reaching policy consequences

245

Distortion risk measures for sums of dependent losses  

CERN Document Server

We discuss two distinct approaches, for distorting risk measures of sums of dependent random variables, which preserve the property of coherence. The first, based on distorted expectations, operates on the survival function of the sum. The second, simultaneously applies the distortion on the survival function of the sum and the dependence structure of risks, represented by copulas. Our goal is to propose risk measures that take into account the fluctuations of losses and possible correlations between risk components.

Brahimi, Brahim; Necir, Abdelhakim

2011-01-01

246

Using high-resolution phosphorus data to investigate mitigation measures in headwater river catchments  

Science.gov (United States)

This study reports the use of high resolution water quality monitoring to assess the influence of changes in landuse management on total phosphorus (TP) transfers in two 5 km2 agricultural sub-catchments. Specifically, the work investigates the "wicked problem" of agricultural soil P management and subsequent diffuse transfers at high river flows over a five year timescale. The work also investigates the phenomenon of low flow P pollution from septic tank systems (STS) and mitigation efforts - here termed the "filthy issue" of rural catchment management. Results showed an inconsistent response to soil P management over five years with one catchment showing a convergence to optimum P concentrations and the other an overall increase. Both catchments indicated an overall increase in P concentration in defined high flow ranges. Low flow P concentration showed little change or higher P concentrations in defined low flow ranges despite replacement of defective systems and this is possibly due to a number of confounding reasons including increased housing densities due to new-builds. The work indicates fractured responses to catchment management advice and mitigation and that the short to medium term may be an insufficient time to expect the full implementation of policies (here defined as convergence to optimum soil P concentration and mitigation of STS) and also to gauge their effectiveness.

Campbell, J. M.; Jordan, P.; Arnscheidt, J.

2014-09-01

247

Using high-resolution phosphorus data to investigate mitigation measures in headwater river catchments  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This study reports the use of high resolution water quality monitoring to assess the influence of changes in landuse management on total phosphorus (TP transfers in two 5 km2 agricultural sub-catchments. Specifically, the work investigates the "wicked problem" of agricultural soil P management and subsequent diffuse transfers at high river flows over a five year timescale. The work also investigates the phenomenon of low flow P pollution from septic tank systems (STS and mitigation efforts – here termed the "filthy issue" of rural catchment management. Results showed an inconsistent response to soil P management over five years with one catchment showing a convergence to optimum P concentrations and the other an overall increase. Both catchments indicated an overall increase in P concentration in defined high flow ranges. Low flow P concentration showed little change or higher P concentrations in defined low flow ranges despite replacement of defective systems and this is possibly due to a number of confounding reasons including increased housing densities due to new-builds. The work indicates fractured responses to catchment management advice and mitigation and that the short to medium term may be an insufficient time to expect the full implementation of policies (here defined as convergence to optimum soil P concentration and mitigation of STS and also to gauge their effectiveness.

J. M. Campbell

2014-09-01

248

Using high-resolution phosphorus data to investigate mitigation measures in headwater river catchments  

Science.gov (United States)

This study reports the use of high-resolution water quality monitoring to assess the influence of changes in land use management on total phosphorus (TP) transfers in two 5 km2 agricultural sub-catchments. Specifically, the work investigates the issue of agricultural soil P management and subsequent diffuse transfers at high river flows over a 5-year timescale. The work also investigates the phenomenon of low flow P pollution from septic tank systems (STSs) and mitigation efforts - a key concern for catchment management. Results showed an inconsistent response to soil P management over 5 years with one catchment showing a convergence to optimum P concentrations and the other an overall increase. Both catchments indicated an overall increase in P concentration in defined high flow ranges. Low flow P concentration showed little change or higher P concentrations in defined low flow ranges despite replacement of defective systems and this is possibly due to a number of confounding reasons including increased housing densities due to new-builds. The work indicates fractured responses to catchment management advice and mitigation and that the short to medium term may be an insufficient time to expect the full implementation of policies (here defined as convergence to optimum soil P concentration and mitigation of STSs) and also to gauge their effectiveness.

Campbell, J. M.; Jordan, P.; Arnscheidt, J.

2015-01-01

249

HAZARD RISK ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT IN CONSTRUCTION SECTOR OF PAKISTAN  

OpenAIRE

Risks are very common in construction sector. Risk is the possibility of suffering loss and the impact of loss on the involved parties. Firstly risk is identified and then risk assessment and analysis is done. Then Risk management and risk mitigation is carried out. Risks affect construction sector negatively and focusing on risk reduction measures is important. Hazards like earthquakes are also main risks affecting construction sector in Pakistan. To counter earthquake risk, the measures of ...

Muhammad Haseeb -; Prof. Xinhailu; Aneesa Bib; Wahab Rabbani

2011-01-01

250

Iran Mortality and Measures of Risk: Rankings for Public policy  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available "nBackground: This paper offers mortality risk rankings for Iranian mortality data. It extends methods to include mixed co­horts, tests changes in mortality risks, compares measures of risk and discusses public policy implications."nMethods: The methodology used in risk measures takes current practice and extends it to include variations in population dy­nam­ics. The specification is presented and compared with existing literature."nResults: Our findings confirm literature results in the re-ordering that takes place when different risk measures are used. In ad­di­tion, we find there is consistency in risk rankings between 1999 and 2000 records of Iranian mortality data.  Thus, these risk measures are stable, robust across time and relay risk information consistently."nConclusions: There are considerable implications in adopting particular risk measures for public policy. However, given prop­er­ties of risk measures discussed here, it is clear that policy makers can select relevant risk measures depending on their pri­ori­ties.

M Aalabaf-Sabaghi

2010-03-01

251

The Price of Dynamic Inconsistency for Distortion Risk Measures  

CERN Document Server

In this paper, we investigate two different frameworks for assessing the risk in a multi-period decision process: a dynamically inconsistent formulation (whereby a single, static risk measure is applied to the entire sequence of future costs), and a dynamically consistent one, obtained by suitably composing one-step risk mappings. We characterize the class of dynamically consistent measures that provide a tight approximation for a given inconsistent measure, and discuss how the approximation factors can be computed. For the case where the consistent measures are given by Average Value-at-Risk, we derive a polynomial-time algorithm for approximating an arbitrary inconsistent distortion measure. We also present exact analytical bounds for the case where the dynamically inconsistent measure is also given by Average Value-at-Risk, and briefly discuss managerial implications in multi-period risk-assessment processes. Our theoretical and algorithmic constructions exploit interesting connections between the study of...

Huang, Pu; Petrik, Marek; Subramanian, Dharmashankar

2011-01-01

252

Liquidity risk meets economic capital and RAROC: a framework for measuring liquidity risk in banks  

OpenAIRE

Liquidity risk is a crucial and inherent feature of the business model of banks. While banks and regulators use sophisticated mathematical methods to measure a bank's solvency risk, they use relatively simple tools for a bank's liquidity risk such as coverage ratios, sensitivity analyses, and scenario analyses. In this thesis we present a more rigorous framework that allows us to measure a bank's liquidity risk within the standard economic capital and RAROC setting. In particular, we introduc...

Loebnitz, Kolja

2011-01-01

253

What risk measures are time consistent for all filtrations?  

CERN Document Server

We study coherent risk measures which are time-consistent for multiple filtrations. We show that a coherent risk measure is time-consistent for every filtration if and only if it is one of four main types. Furthermore, if the risk measure is strictly monotone it is linear, and if the reference probability space is not atomic then it is either linear or an essential supremum.

Cohen, Samuel N

2010-01-01

254

GHG (Greenhouse Gases) emission inventory and mitigation measures for public district heating plants in the Republic of Serbia  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

As a non-Annex I Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol signatory, the Republic of Serbia has committed to develop GHG (Greenhouse Gases) emission inventory and prepare comprehensive program of mitigation measures at national level. The paper presents results of 2000–2008 GHG emission inventory assembled for PDH (Public District Heating) sub-sector in accordance with revised IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Tier 1 methodology. Evaluation of proposed mitigation measures was performed based on 2012 and 2015 GHG emission projections, obtained for basic and four alternative scenarios, all characterized by the same energy demand but with different fuel mix used. The first alternative scenario addresses GHG emissions in case that solid fuel is substituted by natural gas. The second alternative scenario represents a sub-scenario of the first alternative scenario, with additional substitution of liquid fuel with locally available biomass. Third alternative scenario addresses emissions resulting from complete fuel switch from natural gas to liquid fuel oil, while the final alternative scenario considers the case when natural gas is the only energy resource used. GHG emission trends in the period until 2015, examined in case of previously mentioned basic and four alternative scenarios, point out to the positive impact of fuel switch on GHG emission reduction and pathways for future implementation of proposed mitigation measures. Results obtained clearly quantified assumption that fuel substitution by locally available biomass could solve environmental problems, overcome problems associated with high prices of imported fuels, improve energy supply security and increase local employment

255

Measuring the value of reduced health risks: the hedonic price technique applied on the case of radon radiation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The purpose of this study is to estimate the value of reduced health risks due to decreased radon radiation in single-family houses. The presence of radon - a radioactive gas - in houses is a serious health problem in Sweden. It is estimated that radon radiation will cause about 1100 cases of lung cancer each year during the 1990's. Estimates of the value of reducing radon radiation risks may be useful for cost-benefit analyses regarding, for instance, governmental policies concerning measures against radon radiation. By the aid of the hedonic price technique, the maximum willingness to pay of a household for a change from a radiation level higher than the former Swedish standard for radon radiation (400 Becquerel per cubic metre of air, Bq/m3) to a radiation level below this standard is estimated. The hedonic price technique is one of the methods designed for estimation of peoples valuation of non-market goods. It is argued that this study provides a good opportunity to try the usefulness of this valuation method. The estimation procedure employed in this study is based on a simplified version of a theoretical model described by Epple. The conclusion drawn after this comparison is that households that are not mitigating are likely to be those who think that the mitigation costs are high. It is also noted that if the existing governmental grants to mitigating households become more popular, they should have a large influence on the amount of mitigations, siinfluence on the amount of mitigations, since they, in many cases, decrease mitigation costs to a level below households maximum willingness to pay for reduced radon radiation. (56 refs.) (au)

256

Some design measures and concepts for the prevention and mitigation of severe accidents in the Indian advanced heavy water reactor  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thorium utilisation has been an important aspect of the Indian Nuclear Power Programme. The strategy of realising large scale power generation from thorium has been clearly laid out right since the inception of the Indian Nuclear Power Programme. As a part of this strategy an Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR) is being developed. This reactor would generate most of the energy from U-233, bred in-situ from thorium. The paper describes the reactor configuration and passive safety features to remove core heat and also to ensure integrity of containment during accident scenarios. Some design measures and concepts for the prevention and mitigation of severe accidents in AHWR are described

257

Cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gases mitigation measures in the European agro-forestry sector: a literature survey  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Over the last 20 years, climate change has become an increasing concern for scientists, public opinions and policy makers. Due to the pervasive nature of its impacts for many important aspects of human life, climate change is likely to influence and be influenced by the most diverse policy or management choices. This is particularly true for those interventions affecting agriculture and forestry: they are strongly dependent on climate phenomena, but also contribute to climate evolution being sources of and sinks for greenhouse gases (GHG). This paper offers a survey of the existing literature assessing cost-effectiveness and efficiency of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies or the effects of broader economic reforms in the agricultural and forestry sectors. The focus is mainly on European countries. Different methodological approaches, research questions addressed and results are examined. The main findings are that agriculture can potentially provide emissions reduction at a competitive cost, mainly with methane abatement, while carbon sequestration seems more cost-effective with appropriate forest management measures. Afforestation, cropland management and bioenergy are less economically viable measures due to competition with other land use. Mitigation policies should be carefully designed either to balance costs with expected benefits in terms of social welfare. Regional variability is one of the main drawbacks to fully assess the cost-effectiveness of different ssess the cost-effectiveness of different measures. Integration of models to take into account both social welfare and spatial heterogeneity seems to be the frontier of the next model generation

258

Evaluating the effectiveness of urban energy conservation and GHG mitigation measures: The case of Xiamen city, China  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

To assess the effectiveness of urban energy conservation and GHG mitigation measures, a detailed Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model is developed and applied to analyze the future trends of energy demand and GHG emissions in Xiamen city. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future energy strategies in relation to the development of Xiamen city. The 'Business as Usual' scenario assumes that the government will do nothing to influence the long-term trends of urban energy demand. An 'Integrated' scenario, on the other hand, is generated to assess the cumulative impact of a series of available reduction measures: clean energy substitution, industrial energy conservation, combined heat and power generation, energy conservation in building, motor vehicle control, and new and renewable energy development and utilization. The reduction potentials in energy consumption and GHG emissions are estimated for a time span of 2007-2020 under these different scenarios. The calculation results in Xiamen show that the clean energy substitution measure is the most effective in terms of energy saving and GHG emissions mitigation, while the industrial sector has the largest abatement potential.

259

Investigation of radon entry and effectiveness of mitigation measures in seven houses in New Jersey: Midproject report  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A detailed radon mitigation study is in progress in 14 homes in the New Jersey Piedmont area. The principal goals are the refinement of diagnostic measurements for selection and implementation of mitigation systems, and the reduction of radon concentrations to acceptable levels inside the study houses. Monitoring stations were installed in each home in October, 1986. Instrumented measurements included: basement and upstairs radon; differential pressures across the basement/subslag, basement/upstairs and basement/outdoor interfaces; temperatures at basement, upstairs and outdoor locations; and central air handler usage. A weather station was located at one house, monitoring wind speed and direction; barometric pressure; precipitation; soil temperature; and outdoor temperature and relative humidity. A time-averaged value of all of the above parameters was recorded every 30 min. Several additional parameters were monitored on an intermittent basis in all or selected homes. These include multizone air infiltration rates which have been measured in all homes using passive perfluorocarbon tracers (PFT) and in two homes using a constant concentration tracer gas system (CCTG). Total radon progeny, soil gas radon concentration and permeability characteristics, and gamma radiation levels were also monitored periodically in all study homes. 10 refs., 53 figs

260

Spray drift of pesticides and stream macroinvertebrates: Experimental evidence of impacts and effectiveness of mitigation measures  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Impoverished stream communities in agricultural landscapes have been associated with pesticide contamination, but conclusive evidence of causality is rare. We address this deficiency by adopting an experimental approach to investigate the effects of the insecticides cypermethrin and chlorpyrifos on benthic macroinvertebrates. Three treatments were established and a combination of biomarker, bioassay and biomonitoring approaches was employed to investigate, individual, population and community-level effects. Animals deployed during pesticide application had altered enzyme activity, depressed feeding rate and reduced survival, but these effects were only observed where pesticide was sprayed to the stream edge. There were no clear pesticide-related effects on macroinvertebrate community structure or on the population densities of individual species. Hence, short-term pesticide exposure did cause individual-level effects in stream macroinvertebrates, but these were not translated to effects at the population or community-level and were effectively mitigated by the adoption of a no-spray buffer zone. - Pulsed pesticide exposures via spray drift adversely affected stream invertebrates but did not cause population or community-level effects and were mitigated by no-spray buffer zones.

Maltby, Lorraine [Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN (United Kingdom)], E-mail: l.maltby@sheffield.ac.uk; Hills, Louise [Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN (United Kingdom)

2008-12-15

261

Risk importance measures in the dynamic flowgraph methodology  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper presents new risk importance measures applicable to a dynamic reliability analysis approach with multi-state components. Dynamic reliability analysis methods are needed because traditional methods, such as fault tree analysis, can describe system's dynamical behaviour only in limited manner. Dynamic flowgraph methodology (DFM) is an approach used for analysing systems with time dependencies and feedback loops. The aim of DFM is to identify root causes of a top event, usually representing the system's failure. Components of DFM models are analysed at discrete time points and they can have multiple states. Traditional risk importance measures developed for static and binary logic are not applicable to DFM as such. Some importance measures have previously been developed for DFM but their ability to describe how components contribute to the top event is fairly limited. The paper formulates dynamic risk importance measures that measure the importances of states of components and take the time-aspect of DFM into account in a logical way that supports the interpretation of results. Dynamic risk importance measures are developed as generalisations of the Fussell-Vesely importance and the risk increase factor. -- Highlights: • New risk importance measures are developed for the dynamic flowgraph methodology. • Dynamic risk importance measures are formulated for states of components. • An approach to handle failure modes of a component in DFM is presented. • Dynamic risk importance measures take failure times into account. • Component's influence on the system's reliability can be analysed in detail

262

Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

'Risk of damage' and 'exposure risk' are considered as components of the radiation risk. The influence of the 'exposure risk' on type and extent of radiation protection measurements is discussed with regard to different measuring tasks. Basing upon measuring results concerning the frequency of certain external and internal occupational exposures in the GDR, it has been shown that only a small fraction of the monitored persons are subjected to a high 'exposure risk'. As a consequence the following recommendations are given for discussion: (a) occupationally exposed persons with small 'exposure risk' should be monitored using only a long-term dosimeter (for instance a thermoluminescence dosimeter), (b) in the case of internal exposure the surface and, if necessary, air contamination should be controlled so strictly that routine measurements of internal contamination need not be performed. (author)

263

Measures of association applied to operational risks  

OpenAIRE

Association rules are a basic analysis tools for unstructured data such as accident reports, call centres recordings and CRM logs. Such tools are commonly used in basket analysis of shopping carts for identifying patterns in consumer behaviour. In this chapter we show how association rules are used to analyze unstructured operational risk data in order to provide risk assessments and diagnostic insights. We will also present a new graphical display of association rules that permits effective ...

Salini, Silvia

2011-01-01

264

Dynamic portfolio managment based on complex quantile risk measures  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The article focuses on effectiveness evaluation combined measures of financial risks, which are convex combinations of measures VaR, CVaR and their analogues for the right distribution tail functions of a portfolio returns.

Ekaterina V. Tulupova

2011-05-01

265

Design measures for prevention and mitigation of severe accidents at advanced water cooled reactors. Proceedings of a technical committee meeting  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Over 8500 reactor-years of operating experience have been accumulated with the current nuclear energy systems. New generations of nuclear power plants are being developed, building upon this background of experience. During the last decade, requirements for equipment specifically intended to minimize releases of radioactive material to the environment in the event of a core melt accident have been introduced, and designs for new plants include measures for preventing and mitigating a range of severe accident scenarios. The IAEA Technical Committee Meeting on Impact of Severe Accidents on Plant Design and Layout of Advanced Water Cooled Reactors was jointly organized by the Department of Nuclear Energy and the Department of Nuclear Safety to review measures which are being incorporated into advanced water cooled reactor designs for preventing and mitigating severe accidents, the status of experimental and analytical investigations of severe accident phenomena and challenges which support design decisions and accident management procedures, and to understand the impact of explicitly addressing severe accidents on the cost of nuclear power plants. This publication is intended to provide an objective source of information on this topic. It includes 14 papers presented at the Technical Committee meeting held in Vienna between 21-25 October 1996. It also includes a Summary and Findings of the Working Groups. The papers were grouped in three sections. A separate abstract was prepared for each paper

266

Construction and measurements of a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Long-lived alpha and beta emitters in the {sup 222}Rn decay chain on (and near) detector surfaces may be the limiting background in many experiments attempting to detect dark matter or neutrinoless double beta decay, and in screening detectors. In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto the wires of the Beta Cage during its assembly, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at Syracuse University using a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system. The radon filter shows ?20× reduction at its output, from 7.47±0.56 to 0.37±0.12 Bq/m{sup 3}, and the cleanroom radon activity meets project requirements, with a lowest achieved value consistent with that of the filter, and levels consistently < 2 Bq/m{sup 3}.

Schnee, R. W.; Bunker, R.; Ghulam, G.; Jardin, D.; Kos, M.; Tenney, A. S. [Department of Physics, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY 13244 (United States)

2013-08-08

267

Construction and measurements of a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system  

CERN Document Server

Long-lived alpha and beta emitters in the $^{222}$Rn decay chain on (and near) detector surfaces may be the limiting background in many experiments attempting to detect dark matter or neutrinoless double-beta decay, and in screening detectors. In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto the wires of the BetaCage during its assembly, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at Syracuse University using a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system. The radon filter shows ~20$\\times$ reduction at its output, from 7.47$\\pm$0.56 to 0.37$\\pm$0.12 Bq/m$^3$, and the cleanroom radon activity meets project requirements, with a lowest achieved value consistent with that of the filter, and levels consistently < 2 Bq/m$^3$.

Schnee, R W; Ghulam, G; Jardin, D; Kos, M; Tenney, A S

2014-01-01

268

Construction and measurements of a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Long-lived alpha and beta emitters in the 222Rn decay chain on (and near) detector surfaces may be the limiting background in many experiments attempting to detect dark matter or neutrinoless double beta decay, and in screening detectors. In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto the wires of the Beta Cage during its assembly, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at Syracuse University using a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system. The radon filter shows ?20× reduction at its output, from 7.47±0.56 to 0.37±0.12 Bq/m3, and the cleanroom radon activity meets project requirements, with a lowest achieved value consistent with that of the filter, and levels consistently 3

269

Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques are considered as components of the radiation risk. The influence of the exposure risk on type and extent of radiation protection measurements is discussed with regard to different measuring tasks. Based upon measuring results concerning the frequency of certain external and internal occupational exposures in the GDR, it has been shown that only a small fraction of the monitored persons are subjected to a high exposure risk. As a consequence the following recommendations are presented: occupationally exposed persons with small exposure risk should be monitored using only a long-term desimeter (for instance a thermoluminescence desimeter). In the case of internal exposure, the surface and air contamination levels should be controlled so strictly that routine measurements of internal contamination need not be performed

270

EPA program to demonstrate mitigation measures for indoor radon: initial results  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

EPA has installed radon mitigation techniques in 18 concrete block basement homes in the Reading Prong region of eastern Pennsylvania. Three alternative active soil ventilation approaches were tested: suction on the void network within the concrete block basement walls; suction on the footing drain tile system; and suction on the aggregate underneath the concrete slab. The initial 18 mitigation installations were designed to demonstrate techniques which would have low to moderate installation and operating costs. Where effective closure of major openings in the block walls is possible, suction on the wall voids has proved to be extremely effective, able to reduce homes having very high radon Working Levels (up to 7 WL) to 0.02 WL and less. However, where inaccessible major openings are concealed within the wall, it is more difficult and/or more expensive to develop adequate suction on the void network, and performance is reduced. Testing is continuing to demonstrate the steps required to achieve high performance with wall suction in homes with such difficult-to close walls. Drain tile suction can be very effective where the drain tiles completely surround the home; drain tile suction is the least expensive and most aesthetic of the active soil ventilation approaches, but appears susceptible to spikes in radon levels when the basement is depressurized. Sub-slab suction as tested in this study - with one or two individual suction points in the slab - does not appear adequate to ensure sustained high levels of reduction on block wall basement homes; it appears to effectively treat slab-related soil gas entry routes so long as a uniform layer of aggregate is present, but it does not appear to effectively treat the wall-related entry routes. Closure of major openings might have improved sub-slab suction performance. 5 figures, 3 tables

271

NITRATE TOXICITY IN GROUNDWATER: ITS CLINICAL MANIFESTATIONS, PREVENTIVE MEASURES AND MITIGATION STRATEGIES  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Groundwater pollution has become a drastic problem principally because of nature and wide spread use of modern chemicals viz. pesticides and fertilizers. Excessive application of fertilizers as well as organic wastes and sewage has been implicated in the nitrogen pollution of groundwater. Therefore, the issue of rising nitrate concentration in groundwater has become a subject of extensive research in India and Rajasthan in particular. In natural water, nitrate ((NO3- N is usually 100ppm and in organic matters (amine and /or amides resulting in the production of nitrosamines (carcinogens. Number of cases (human and livestock, suffering from gastric cancer have been observed. Reverse osmosis (RO process has great potential in the mitigation of nitrate ion containing waters. Generally, the presence of particular substances may affect the removal of specific ions. The presence of di-hydrogen phosphate ions (DHP-ions in the feed solution enhances the nitrate removal efficiency of the polyamide RO membrane. In this present research work, a Flmtec TW30, polyamide thin-film composite, RO membrane was used for nitrate removal through RO set up. The rejection of individual nitrate was found to be around 76%. After addition of KH2¬PO4 to the feed containing nitrate ions the rejection was improved up to 84. This high level of increment in rejection of nitrate ion indicates the possible usage of KH2¬PO4 in RO for nitrate removal. This fact of removal is due to the K+ ions binding to the electronic lone-pairs of polyamide membrane holding di-hydrogen phosphate ions. This establishes a negative layer on the surface of the membrane. The diffusion of nitrate through the membrane is diminished by the formed layer. Present manuscript delineates clinical manifestations of nitrate toxicity and mitigation of nitrate ion by means of state-of-the-art reverse osmosis technology.

Raaz K. Maheshwari

2013-09-01

272

The Efficiency of Irradiated Garlic Powder in Mitigation of Hypercholesterolemic Risk Factor in High cholesterol Fed Rats  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The present study was conducted to explore the efficiency of radiation processed dried garlic powder at 10, 15 and 20 kGy on the average daily body gain, internal organ weights, certain hematological and biochemical parameters; including total plasma protein, albumin, globulin, total cholesterol, low and high density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C and HDL-C), triglyceride levels, and aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT) activities in rats fed with a high-cholesterol diet. Experimental rats were fed a high cholesterol diet (10 g kg-1) with and without raw or radiation processed dried garlic powder at the above-mentioned doses for 6 weeks. Control rats were fed a casein diet (C). 20 g kg-1 dietary raw or irradiated dried garlic powder was used to supplemented cholesterol diet (Ch). It was observed that cholesterol-fed (Ch) animals had a significant increase in relative liver weight, plasma total cholesterol, LDL-C, triglyceride levels, LDL/HDL ratio, AST and ALT activities and a significant decrease in HDL-C level compared to the control group of rats fed on a Casein diet (C). However, when the rats were fed with a high cholesterol diet mixed with 20 g kg-1 raw (ChRG) or irradiated dried garlic powder at 10 (ChG10), 15 (ChG15), and 20 kGy (ChG20), there was a significant reduction in their relative liver weight, hemoglobin, haematocrit, plasma total cholesterol, LDL-C, triglyceride levels, LDL/HDL ratio, and i triglyceride levels, LDL/HDL ratio, and increased HDL level and amended AST and ALT activities levels as compared with the group which was on a diet containing high cholesterol without garlic powder (Ch). No significant changes were observed in relative spleen, kidney, lung, heart and testes weights, as well as, the total plasma protein, albumin, globulin concentrations in all of treated groups. These results show that the dietary 20 g kg-1 irradiated dried garlic powder at 10, 15 and 20 kGy are beneficial in reducing plasma cholesterol, triglycerides, LDL-C levels, El-Neily and El-Shennawy, J. Rad. Res. Appl. Sci., Vol. 1272 4, No. 4(B)(2011) LDL/HDL ratio, AST and ALT activities in hypercholesterolemic rats. Irradiated dried garlic powder supplementation, also, increased HDL. In conclusion, irradiated dried garlic powder at 10, 15 and 20 kGy improved the plasma lipid levels in rats fed cholesterol-containing diets and increased the plasma HDL-C and reduced LDL/HDL ratio in groups of rats fed cholesterol-diets. The higher dose used (20 kGy) did not impair the bioactive compounds of dried garlic powder, and it can be used as an additive in cooking and as a protective pharmaceutical supplement for mitigation of hypercholesterolemic risk factor

273

12 CFR Appendix C to Part 567 - Risk-Based Capital Requirements-Internal-Ratings-Based and Advanced Measurement Approaches  

Science.gov (United States)

...downturns, affect risk-based capital requirements (including migration across rating grades and segments and the credit risk mitigation...rating example) Highest investment grade (for example, AAA) 7% 12% 20% Second highest investment grade...

2010-01-01

274

Review of selected state-of-the-art applications of diagnostic measurements for radon-mitigation planning. Report for April 1986-June 1987  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Since late-1984, EPA's AEERL has supported a program to develop and demonstrate radon-mitigation techniques for single-family detached dwellings. As part of the program, projects have been started, directed at developing and demonstrating the use of diagnostic measurements in all phases of the radon-mitigation process. Diagnostic measurements are used to assess: (1) the radon sources strengths, variability, and locations; and, (2) radon transport to the house and its entry and distribution in the house as influenced by environmental, house characteristics, and occupancy factors. The diagnostic measurements reported include: (1) soil-gas grab sampling; (2) communication (air flow or pressure-field extension) tests; (3) whole house infiltration; (4) differential pressure, (5) gamma radiation; and, (6) radon flux. The paper concludes that the above selected diagnostic measurements were especially useful in characterizing houses with indoor radon problems attributable to soil-gas-borne radon that may be amenable to mitigation through the use of subslab ventilation

275

Evaluation of the varying Naturally Occurring Asbestos mitigation measures at School and Commercial construction projects in California  

Science.gov (United States)

In commercial development or K-12 school construction, project sites are often purchased and much of the planning process completed prior to an assessment of the soils proposed for excavation or potential offhaul. Geologic maps, while initially helpful for identifying potential hazards such as landslides and earthquake faults, are less helpful in the identification of naturally occurring hazardous minerals, such as the seven regulated minerals currently classified as asbestos. Geologic maps identify mafic and ultramafic bedrock zones; however, a skilled geologist with knowledge of asbestos hazards will further visualize the earth-shaping processes that may have resulted in the deposition of naturally occurring asbestos in locations outside mapped ultramafic zones including the base of an alluvial fan or within streambed channels. When sampled as an afterthought prior to disposal, property owners are surprised by the budget-crippling costs of waste handling and disposal of NOA, as well as mitigations required to protect the health of construction workers, the public, and future site occupants. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) continues to lead the way in evaluation and regulation of NOA, through development of the CARB 435 preparation and laboratory analytical method, local enforcement of the Asbestos Airborne Toxic Control Measure for Construction, Grading, Quarrying, and Surface Mining Operations (ATCM), and implementation of dust control measures to protect public health. A thorough site evaluation and construction design includes utilization of the sampling methods developed by the California Geological Survey, laboratory analytical methods within CARB 435, and mitigation measures required by CARB, DTSC, and OSHA for the protection of worker and public health after NOA is discovered. The site evaluation should additionally include an assessment of the future site usage, as regulations differ based on potential health affects to future occupants. Construction and long-term monitoring at an elementary school differs in regulatory requirements from construction of a commercial property. This presentation will highlight two case studies: a school project with several years of advance planning versus a commercial property where NOA was discovered weeks before the start of construction. The presentation will analyze the regulatory differences, mitigation measures, and consideration of the financial impacts that the discovery of NOA can have on a school versus a commercial project.

Kalika, S.

2012-12-01

276

Using fine-scale fuel measurements to assess wildland fuels, potential fire behavior and hazard mitigation treatments in the southeastern USA  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The inherent spatial and temporal heterogeneity of fuelbeds in forests of the southeastern United States may require fine scale fuel measurements for providing reliable fire hazard and fuel treatment effectiveness estimates. In a series of five papers, an intensive, fine scale fuel inventory from the Savanna River Site in the southeastern United States is used for building fuelbeds and mapping fire behavior potential, evaluating fuel treatment options for effectiveness, and providing a comparative analysis of landscape modeled fire behavior using three different data sources including the Fuel Characteristic Classification System, LANDFIRE, and the Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment. The research demonstrates that fine scale fuel measurements associated with fuel inventories repeated over time can be used to assess broad scale wildland fire potential and hazard mitigation treatment effectiveness in the southeastern USA and similar fire prone regions. Additional investigations will be needed to modify and improve these processes and capture the true potential of these fine scale data sets for fire and fuel management planning.

277

The Midweight Method to Measure Attitudes towards Risk and Ambiguity  

OpenAIRE

This paper introduces a parameter-free method for measuring the weighting functions of prospect theory and rank-dependent utility. These weighting functions capture risk attitudes, subjective beliefs, and ambiguity attitudes. Our method, called the midweight method, is based on a convenient way to obtain midpoints in the weighting function scale. It can be used both for risk (known probabilities) and for uncertainty (unknown probabilities). The resulting integrated treatment of risk and uncer...

Kuilen, G.; Wakker, P. P.

2009-01-01

278

Electron Clouds in the SPS: progress in the analysis of cures/mitigations measures and potential schedule of implementation  

CERN Document Server

After a brief review of the studies (simulations and measurements) made so far, a set of priorities for new studies will be presented and justified. These proposals will include all studies related to coating techniques, clearing electrodes, active feedbacks, together with their related instrumentation. The feasibility, state-of-the-art, hard limits and open questions, required infrastructures, schedule implications, phasing feasibility of the proposed mitigation solutions will be considered in the framework of an upgrade of the SPS (i.e. without removing the beampipes from the magnets) and in the framework of combining the SPS upgrade with its required long-term consolidation (exchange of the magnet beampipes as an alternative). A tentative schedule of milestones in the decision making will be presented and discussed.

Jimenez, J

2011-01-01

279

The impact of measurement error on risk assessment  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Many methodological difficulties must be overcome to assess the risks to human health associated with chronic exposure to low-dose radiation. Accurate estimation of individual exposure is a case in point. Rodrigue Allodji's PhD thesis was aimed at taking into account errors in exposure measurement and assessing their impact on quantifying the exposure-risk relationship. (author)

280

A hierarchical procedure for calculation of risk importance measures  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Starting with a general importance definition based on conditional probabilities, a hierarchical process for calculating such measures from a PRA's numerical results is developed. By the appropriate choice of events in the general definition, measures such as the risk achievement worth and the risk reduction worth can be calculated without requantifying the PRA models. Required approximations are clearly defined and the subsequent constraints on the applicability of the process discussed

281

Comprehensive assessments of measures mitigating heat island phenomena in urban areas; Heat shinku wo riyoshita daikibo reibo system no kaihatsu  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper describes actual condition and measures against heat island (HI) phenomena in large urban areas with buildings. Tokyo was selected as a model. To extract typical pattern of daily change of air temperature, statistic analysis was conducted using the existing air temperature data at 100 points in and near the city of Tokyo. As a result, five patterns were obtained, i.e., central city, sea/land water affecting zone, thickly settled suburbs, garden city, and countryside. Each one point was selected in each pattern, to measure the underground temperature. It was found that the effect of HI can be easily evaluated from the underground temperature. It was suggested that the HI effect in the central city is estimated to be around 3.6 {degree}C. The measures mitigating HI were divided into the thermal balance improvement in the whole district and the temperature improvement of living space by homogenization or inhomogenization. Energy conservation was investigated for improving the thermal balance which can be practically conducted. According to the measures, it was found that the air temperature in the central city can be decreased by about 0.5 {degree}C at maximum. 3 figs., 1 tab.

Ishitani, H.; Yamada, K.; Yamaji, K.; Matsuhashi, T.; Iizuka, E.; Suzuki, T.; Genchi, H.; Komiyama, H. [The University of Tokyo, Tokyo (Japan)

1997-02-01

282

The business value of it managing risks, optimizing performance and measuring results  

CERN Document Server

In order to maximize IT resources and justify IT expenditures, CIO's and other IT managers must be able to identify meaningful metrics and explain them in a way that management can understand. The Business Value of IT: Managing Risks, Optimizing Performance, and Measuring Results solves this problem by providing practical answers to these questions: What does IT contribute to the business? Why should we care about IT governance? How can we best measure IT performance? How do we mitigate the risks associated with change? Leading consultants Michael D. Harris, David E. Herron, and Stasia Iwanicki share their real-world experiences to explain how you can demonstrate IT's value, and potentially find extra value you didn't know your IT organization creates. They also show how to apply risk management to process improvement and avoid unintended consequences of process improvement programs. The text provides the understanding required to discover the processes necessary to: prioritize your organization's IT act...

Harris, Michael D S; Iwanicki, Stasia

2008-01-01

283

REIMR - A Process for Utilizing Liquid Rocket Propulsion-Oriented 'Lessons Learned' to Mitigate Development Risk in Nuclear Thermal Propulsion  

Science.gov (United States)

This paper is a summary overview of a study conducted at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA MSFC) during the initial phases of the Space Launch Initiative (SLI) program to evaluate a large number of technical problems associated with the design, development, test, evaluation and operation of several major liquid propellant rocket engine systems (i.e., SSME, Fastrac, J-2, F-1). One of the primary results of this study was the identification of the Fundamental Root Causes that enabled the technical problems to manifest, and practices that can be implemented to prevent them from recurring in future propulsion system development efforts, such as that which is currently envisioned in the field of nuclear thermal propulsion (NTF). This paper will discuss the Fundamental Root Causes, cite some examples of how the technical problems arose from them, and provide a discussion of how they can be mitigated or avoided in the development of an NTP system

Ballard, RIchard O.

2006-01-01

284

REIMR - A Process for Utilizing Liquid Rocket Propulsion-Oriented `Lessons Learned' to Mitigate Development Risk in Nuclear Thermal Propulsion  

Science.gov (United States)

This paper is a summary overview of a study conducted at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA-MSFC) during the initial phases of the Space Launch Initiative (SLI) program to evaluate a large number of technical problems associated with the design, development, test, evaluation and operation of several major liquid propellant rocket engine systems (i.e., SSME, Fastrac, J-2, F-1). One of the primary results of this study was the identification of the ``Fundamental Root Causes'' that enabled the technical problems to manifest, and practices that can be implemented to prevent them from recurring in future propulsion system development efforts, such as that which is currently envisioned in the field of nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP). This paper will discus the Fundamental Root Causes, cite some examples of how the technical problems arose from them, and provide a discussion of how they can be mitigated or avoided in the development of an NTP system.

Ballard, Richard O.

2006-01-01

285

REIMR - A Process for Utilizing Liquid Rocket Propulsion-Oriented 'Lessons Learned' to Mitigate Development Risk in Nuclear Thermal Propulsion  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper is a summary overview of a study conducted at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA-MSFC) during the initial phases of the Space Launch Initiative (SLI) program to evaluate a large number of technical problems associated with the design, development, test, evaluation and operation of several major liquid propellant rocket engine systems (i.e., SSME, Fastrac, J-2, F-1). One of the primary results of this study was the identification of the 'Fundamental Root Causes' that enabled the technical problems to manifest, and practices that can be implemented to prevent them from recurring in future propulsion system development efforts, such as that which is currently envisioned in the field of nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP). This paper will discus the Fundamental Root Causes, cite some examples of how the technical problems arose from them, and provide a discussion of how they can be mitigated or avoided in the development of an NTP system

286

An Interaction Model for Simulation and Mitigation of Cascading Failures  

CERN Document Server

Cascading failures triggered by trivial initial events are encountered in many complex systems. It is actually not any specific reason but the interaction between components of the system that causes cascading failures. Based on this idea interactions between components are quantified and the interaction matrix and interaction network are obtained. By using the quantified interactions, key links and key components that play important roles in the propagation of cascading failures are identified. An interaction model is also proposed to simulate cascading failures by using the interactions and to study the influence of these interactions on the cascading failure risk. Interaction-based mitigation measures are suggested to mitigate the cascading failure risk by eliminating a small number of key links, which can be achieved in real systems by wide area protection such as blocking of some specific protective relays. The proposed interaction quantifying method, cascading failure model, and mitigation measures are ...

Qi, Junjian; Mei, Shengwei

2014-01-01

287

Granulation-based Measure for Risk Assessment  

OpenAIRE

The weighted method is the most often used operators to aggregate criteria in decision making problems with the assumption that there are no interactions among criteria while in the real world, most criteria have inter-dependent or interactive characteristics. The discrete Choquet integral is a more suitable aggregation operator as it takes into accounts the interactions and not assuming the additivity and independence. This study proposes a granulation-based method to construct fuzzy measure...

Xi-Hua Li; Bei-Ling Ma

2013-01-01

288

Analysis and mitigation of measurement uncertainties in the traceability chain for the calibration of photovoltaic devices  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper describes the traceability chain for photovoltaic devices and the measurement methods employed to perform the various transfer steps. The measurement uncertainties are analysed in detail based on the accreditation of the European Solar Test Installation (ESTI) for the calibration of photovoltaic devices. The various contributions to the overall uncertainty are critically analysed for various traceability chain options. A major contribution is the uncertainty in the calibration of the primary reference device. The overall measurement uncertainty is reduced using the ESTI reference cell set compared to the traceability from the world photovoltaic scale. For the maximum power of photovoltaic modules, the expanded combined uncertainty is reduced from ±2.6% to below ±2%. Recommendations are made on the scope for further reduction of uncertainty and for the best calibration strategy for various PV technologies

289

C-Band Airport Surface Communications System Engineering-Initial High-Level Safety Risk Assessment and Mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed C-band (5091- to 5150-MHz) airport surface communication system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents an initial high-level safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the C-band communication system after the profile is finalized and system rollout timing is determined. A security risk assessment has been performed by NASA as a parallel activity. While safety analysis is concerned with a prevention of accidental errors and failures, the security threat analysis focuses on deliberate attacks. Both processes identify the events that affect operation of the system; and from a safety perspective the security threats may present safety risks.

Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

2011-01-01

290

Dynamical properties measurements for asteroid, comet and meteorite material applicable to impact modeling and mitigation calculations  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

We describe methods for measuring dynamical properties for two material categories of interest in understanding large-scale extraterrestrial impacts: iron-nickel and underdense materials (e.g. snow). Particular material properties measured by the present methods include Hugoniot release paths and constitutive properties (stress vs. strain). The iron-nickel materials lend themselves well to conventional shock and quasi-static experiments. As examples, a suite of experiments is described including six impact tests (wave profile compression/release) over the stress range 2--20 GPa, metallography, quasi-static and split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) mechanical testing, and ultrasonic mapping and sound velocity measurements. Temperature sensitivity of the dynamic behavior was measured at high and low strain rates. Among the iron-nickel materials tested, an octahedrite was found to have behavior close to that of Armco iron under shock and quasi-static conditions, while an ataxite exhibited a significantly larger quasi-static yield strength than did the octahedrite or a hexahedrite. The underdense materials pose three primary experimental difficulties. First, the samples are friable; they can melt or sublimate during storage, preparation and testing. Second, they are brittle and crushable; they cannot withstand such treatment as traditional machining or launch in a gun system. Third, with increasing porosity the calculated Hugoniot density becomes rapidly more sensitive to errors in wave time-of-arrival measurements. Carefully chosen simulants eliminate preservation (friability) difficulties, but the other difficulties remain. A family of 36 impact tests was conducted on snow and snow simulants at Sandia, yielding reliable Hugoniot and reshock states, but limited release property information. Other methods for characterizing these materials are discussed.

Furnish, M.D.; Boslough, M.B. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gray, G.T. III [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Remo, J.L. [Quantametrics, Inc., St. James, NY (United States)

1994-07-01

291

A generalized Fourier transform approach to risk measures  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

We introduce the formalism of generalized Fourier transforms in the context of risk management. We develop a general framework in which to efficiently compute the most popular risk measures, value-at-risk and expected shortfall (also known as conditional value-at-risk). The only ingredient required by our approach is the knowledge of the characteristic function describing the financial data in use. This allows us to extend risk analysis to those non-Gaussian models defined in the Fourier space, such as Lévy noise driven processes and stochastic volatility models. We test our analytical results on data sets coming from various financial indexes, finding that our predictions outperform those provided by the standard log-normal dynamics and are in remarkable agreement with those of the benchmark historical approach

292

Soil erosion and mitigation measures on rented and owned fields in Uruguay: the impact of transgenic soya and foreign investors  

Science.gov (United States)

Governments, companies and individuals with financial capital to invest, are worldwide buying or renting land in developing or third world countries. Uruguay is a developing country whose economy is mainly based on agriculture. Since 2000 many foreigners started to invest in the Uruguayan agricultural sector and to practice intensive large-scale agriculture. The significant presence of foreigners in the country is proven by the fact that almost 360 000 ha out of the 500 000 ha forming the study area were managed by foreigners in 2012. Nowadays farmers have abandoned the traditional crop rotation plan that included pasture to produce grain for export, and transgenic soya (soya RR) became the main crop planted by both foreigners and locals. Besides the high soil erosion rates related to having soya as main crop, planting soya implies the use of glyphosate, a broad-spectrum systemic herbicide leading to important environmental impacts. It is commonly said that foreigners investing in poor countries are exploiting the local natural resources aiming to get the highest possible profit from them. Is this a valid assumption in Uruguay? The purpose of this study was to compare the land management style of foreign and local farmers and to relate it to the soil erosion occurring in the study area. The land tenure (rented or owned fields) and the type of farmer interviewed ("individual farmer" equivalent to L.L.C. or "anonymous society" equivalent to P.L.C.) were taken into consideration during the analysis. Based on what stated by the farmers interviewed, the soil erosion simulations considered the seven most popular crop rotation plans on rented and owned fields, three ideals crop rotation plans, the application of no mitigation measures, and the construction of terraces and conservation buffers. Depending on the crop rotation plan, soils characterized by slope gradients higher than 2 resulted in soil erosion rates higher than the 7 ton/ha/year allowed by law. The highest soil erosion rates corresponded to crop rotation plans having high percentage of soybeans and low percentages of sorghum and/or maize. In addition, the soil erosion rate was even higher when only one crop, especially soybeans, was planted during an agricultural year. Although there were not significant differences in the land management style between foreign and local farmers, the land management style significantly differed between L.L.C. and P.L.C., and between owned and rented fields. Compared to L.L.C., P.L.C. applied more soil erosion mitigation measures on both rented and owned fields and invested in research. Owned fields resulted to be better managed than rented fields in which soil erosion mitigation measures were taken only in presence of an agreement with the landlord. Indeed, although the construction of terraces having a distance of 30-50 m significantly reduced the soil erosion rate, those were mainly built on owned fields.

Caon, Lucrezia; Kessler, Aad; Keesstra, Saskia; Cruze, Rick

2014-05-01

293

Economics of Tsunami Mitigation in the Pacific Northwest  

Science.gov (United States)

The death total in a major Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) tsunami may be comparable to the Tohoku tsunami - tens of thousands. To date, tsunami risk reduction activities have been almost exclusively hazard mapping and evacuation planning. Reducing deaths in locations where evacuation to high ground is impossible in the short time between ground shaking and arrival of tsunamis requires measures such as vertical evacuation facilities or engineered pathways to safe ground. Yet, very few, if any, such tsunami mitigation projects have been done. In contrast, many tornado safe room and earthquake mitigation projects driven entirely or in largely by life safety have been done with costs in the billions of dollars. The absence of tsunami mitigation measures results from the belief that tsunamis are too infrequent and the costs too high to justify life safety mitigation measures. A simple analysis based on return periods, death rates, and the geographic distribution of high risk areas for these hazards demonstrates that this belief is incorrect: well-engineered tsunami mitigation projects are more cost-effective with higher benefit-cost ratios than almost all tornado or earthquake mitigation projects. Goldfinger's paleoseismic studies of CSZ turbidites indicate return periods for major CSZ tsunamis of about 250-500 years (USGS Prof. Paper 1661-F in press). Tsunami return periods are comparable to those for major earthquakes at a given location in high seismic areas and are much shorter than those for tornados at any location which range from >4,000 to >16,000 years for >EF2 and >EF4 tornadoes, respectively. The average earthquake death rate in the US over the past 100-years is about 1/year, or about 30/year including the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. The average death rate for tornadoes is about 90/year. For CSZ tsunamis, the estimated average death rate ranges from about 20/year (10,000 every 500 years) to 80/year (20,000 every 250 years). Thus, the long term deaths rates from tsunamis, earthquakes and tornadoes are comparable. High hazard areas for tornadoes and earthquakes cover ~40% and ~15% of the contiguous US, ~1,250,000 and ~500,000 square miles, respectively. In marked contrast, tsunami life safety risk is concentrated in communities with significant populations in areas where evacuation to high ground is impossible: probably cost ratio would be about 16 or about 80 for tsunami mitigation projects which cost 5 million or 1 million, respectively. These rough calculations indicate that tsunami mitigation projects in high risk locations are economically justified. More importantly, these results indicate that national and local priorities for natural hazard mitigation should be reconsidered, with tsunami mitigation given a very high priority.

Goettel, K. A.; Rizzo, A.; Sigrist, D.; Bernard, E. N.

2011-12-01

294

Flood and rockslide mitigative measures for the concrete sections of the Daisy Lake Dam  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Studies conducted under British Columbia Hydro's dam safety program during the early 1980s indicated that dam sections of the Daisy Lake Dam would be overtopped by the probable maximum flood (PMF) and by a postulated slide generated wave (SGW). It was considered that the overtopping by either of the events could cause several sections of the concrete dam to fall, thereby resulting in uncontrolled release of the reservoir. The criteria used for determining foundation strength parameters, static and SGW induced water pressures, effective uplift and the appropriate factors of safety are discussed. The results of the analyses for the original dam sections and the design and implementation of the selected remedial measures are also described. These measures included lowering the Wing Dam and Saddle Dam by about 2 m to increase the spillway capacity and the installation of 43 post-tensioned anchors in the various sections of the main concrete and Wing dams. 9 refs., 8 figs., 3 tabs

295

Cost–Benefit Analyses of Mitigation Measures Aimed at Reducing Collisions with Large Ungulates in the United States and Canada: a Decision Support Tool  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Wildlife–vehicle collisions, especially with deer (Odocoileus spp., elk (Cervus elaphus, and moose (Alces alces are numerous and have shown an increasing trend over the last several decades in the United States and Canada. We calculated the costs associated with the average deer–, elk–, and moose–vehicle collision, including vehicle repair costs, human injuries and fatalities, towing, accident attendance and investigation, monetary value to hunters of the animal killed in the collision, and cost of disposal of the animal carcass. In addition, we reviewed the effectiveness and costs of 13 mitigation measures considered effective in reducing collisions with large ungulates. We conducted cost–benefit analyses over a 75-year period using discount rates of 1%, 3%, and 7% to identify the threshold values (in 2007 U.S. dollars above which individual mitigation measures start generating benefits in excess of costs. These threshold values were translated into the number of deer–, elk–, or moose–vehicle collisions that need to occur per kilometer per year for a mitigation measure to start generating economic benefits in excess of costs. In addition, we calculated the costs associated with large ungulate–vehicle collisions on 10 road sections throughout the United States and Canada and compared these to the threshold values. Finally, we conducted a more detailed cost analysis for one of these road sections to illustrate that even though the average costs for large ungulate–vehicle collisions per kilometer per year may not meet the thresholds of many of the mitigation measures, specific locations on a road section can still exceed thresholds. We believe the cost–benefit model presented in this paper can be a valuable decision support tool for determining mitigation measures to reduce ungulate–vehicle collisions.

Robert J. Ament

2009-12-01

296

Modelling of agricultural diffuse pollution and mitigation measures effectiveness inWallonia (Belgium)  

OpenAIRE

Implementation of European directives in the environmental field and, specially, in the water management field, generates a request from policy-makers for news tools able to evaluate impact of management measures aiming at reducing pressures on ecosystems. In Wallonia (Southern Region of Belgium), the Nitrate Directive (EEC/676/91) was transposed into the “Walloon action plan for nitrogen sustainable management in agriculture” (PGDA1) in 2002. In 2007, a second plan was lau...

Sohier, Catherine; Deraedt, Deborah; Degre?, Aurore

2012-01-01

297

Dynamical properties measurements for asteroid, comet and meteorite material applicable to impact modeling and mitigation calculations.  

Science.gov (United States)

Describes methods for measuring dynamical properties for two material categories of interest in understanding large-scale extraterrestrial impacts: iron-nickel and underdense materials (e.g. snow). Particular material properties measured by the present methods include Hugoniot, release paths and constitutive properties (stress vs. strain). Among the iron-nickel materials tested, an octahedrite was found to have behavior close to that of Armco iron under shock and quasi-static conditions, while an ataxite exhibited a significantly larger quasistatic yield strength than did the octahedrite or a hexahedrite. The underdense materials pose three primary experimental difficulties. First, the samples are perishable. Second, they are brittle and crushable. Third, with increasing porosity the calculated Hugoniot density becomes rapidly more sensitive to errors in wave time-of-arrival measurements. Carefully chosen simulants eliminate preservation (friability) difficulties, but the other difficulties remain. A family of 36 impact tests was conducted on snow and snow simulants at Sandia yielding reliable Hugoniot and reshock states, but limited release property information. Other methods for characterizing these materials are discussed.

Furnish, M. D.; Boslough, M. B.; Gray, G. T., III; Remo, J. L.

298

Measure of capital requirement by market risk models  

OpenAIRE

During the financial and economic crisis of 2008, it was noticed that the amount of capital required for banks' trading portfolio was significantly less than the real losses. To understand the causes of this low capital requirement, it seemed important to estimate the reliability of the market risk models and to propose stress testing methodologies for the management of extreme risks. The objective is to measure the capital requirement on a trading portfolio, composed of shares and commoditie...

Kourouma, Lancine

2012-01-01

299

Key Escrow Attack Risk and Preventive Measures  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Cryptographic technology is always a highly sensitive dual-use technology. All nations have to face a dilemma in terms of password usage: on the one hand, to fully guarantee the safety and confidentiality of personal communication, as well as personal privacy and communication freedom required by law; on the other hand, to make sure law-enforcing departments and security organs crack down and prevent crime. It might be a great help for crime and terrorist organizations that the wide application of cryptography is made public. Many people believe that plain text communicated through the public network is accessible to an appropriate government agency if law permits. Therefore, it has become a continuous hot issue of cryptographic technology that how to design a cryptographic system through which legal persons are able to protect the safety of their information, yet being monitored by government in the range permitted by law. In this study, an in-depth study is carried out on the controversial key escrow technology, analyzing its composition and algorithm and pointing out possible attacks and preventive measures.

Qiang Fan

2012-08-01

300

Mitigation measures for chromium-VI contaminated groundwater - The role of endophytic bacteria in rhizofiltration.  

Science.gov (United States)

A constructed wetland pilot with Juncus acutus L. plants was investigated for its rhizofiltration efficiency in treating Cr(VI)-contaminated groundwater. Measurements of Cr(VI) and total Cr were performed to estimate the rate of removal. In addition, Cr concentration in plant tissues was measured and the role of endophytic bacteria on plant's tolerance to Cr(VI) toxicity was investigated. The results support that J. acutus is able to rhizofiltrate Cr(VI) from contaminated water with up to 140?g/L while Cr content analysis in plant tissues revealed that the majority of Cr was accumulated by the plants. Moreover, two leaf (Acidovorax sp. strain U3 and Ralstonia sp. strain U36) isolated endophytic bacteria were found to tolerated 100mg/L Cr(VI) while nine root isolates showed resistance to 500mg/L Cr(VI). The endophytic bacteria Pseudomonas sp. strain R16 and Ochrobactrum sp. strain R24 were chosen for Cr(VI) reduction assays. All four strains exhibited a strong potential to reduce Cr(VI) to Cr(III) aerobically. Among them Pseudomonas sp. strain R16 was found able to completely reduced 100mg/L Cr(VI) after 150h of incubation. These results suggest that J. acutus is an excellent choice for CWs whose function is the removal of Cr(VI) from contaminated groundwater for subsequent use in crop irrigation. PMID:25160056

Dimitroula, Helen; Syranidou, Evdokia; Manousaki, Eleni; Nikolaidis, Nikolaos P; Karatzas, George P; Kalogerakis, Nicolas

2015-01-01

301

Fuel consumption and life cycle GHG emissions by China’s on-road trucks: Future trends through 2050 and evaluation of mitigation measures  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

We established a bottom-up model to deliver the future trends of fuel consumption and life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by China's on-road trucks. The mitigation measures of mileage utilization rate (MUR) improvement, fuel consumption rate (FCR) improvement, and penetration of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fueled trucks were evaluated. With no mitigation measures implemented, in the year 2050, the total fuel consumption and life cycle GHG emissions by China's on-road trucks were projected to reach 498 million toe and 2125 million tons, respectively, approximately 5.2 times the level in 2010. If the MUR of trucks in China is increased from the current status as those of the developed countries, a 13% reduction of total fuel consumption can be achieved after 2020. If the FCR of trucks is reduced by 10% in 2011, 2016, 2021, and 2026, a 30% reduction of total fuel consumption can be achieved after 2030. Moreover, if the share of LNG fueled trucks in all newly registered semi-trailer towing trucks and heavy-duty trucks is increased to 20% in 2030, an estimate of 7.9% and 10.9% of the total diesel consumption by trucks will be replaced by LNG in 2030 and 2050, respectively. - Highlights: ? We establish a bottom–up model to deliver the fuel consumption and GHG emissions by China's trucks. ? Without mitigation measures, the truck fuel consumption in 2050 will be 5.2 times the level in 2010. ? Fuel conservation and GHG reduction effects of three mitigation measureffects of three mitigation measures were evaluated.

302

Analysis of Hydrogen Risk Mitigation System for Severe Accidents of EU-APR1400 Using MAAP4 code  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

According to the EUR (European Utility Requirements for LWR Nuclear Power Plants), it is mandatory that the HMS (Hydrogen Mitigation System) of the Eu-APR1400 should be equipped with a passive or automatic hydrogen control system. Considering this requirement, a PAR (Passive Autocatalytic Recombiner) system was adopted for the HMS of the Eu-APR1400. This passive HMS should be evaluated carefully in order to ensure that the HMS has adequate capacity to control hydrogen concentrations during severe accident conditions and to show that the system can satisfy the design requirements of the EUR. In this paper, analyses were carried out to examine the effectiveness of the HMS incorporated into the Eu- APR1400 design. These analyses were performed using the MAAP (Modular Accident Analysis Program) 4 code. in order to identify whether the HMS could control the average hydrogen concentrations in the containment, such that the concentration would not exceed 10 percent by volume: the analyses also considered whether there was the possibility of inadvertent hydrogen combustion in such processes as FA (Flame Acceleration) and DDT (Deflagration to Detonation Transition)

Kim, Mun Soo; Suh, Jung Soo; Bae, Byoung Hwan [KHNP Central Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2011-10-15

303

Comprehensive assessments of measures mitigating heat island phenomena in urban areas; Heat shinku wo riyoshita daikibo reibo system no kaihatsu  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper describes the assessment method of measures mitigating heat island phenomena in urban areas. The heat island phenomena were classified into meso-scale with 100 km-scale, block-scale with several km-scale, and building-scale with 100 m-scale. Urban thermal environment simulation model was developed in response to each scale. For the development, regional data using aircraft and artificial satellite observations, surface observation and thermal environment observation at Shinjuku new central city of Tokyo, and artificial waste heat actual survey data in the southern Kanto district were utilized. Results of the urban thermal environment simulation were introduced as an application of this model. Temperature distributions of the heat island in the Kanto district were simulated with considering urban conditions near Tokyo and without considering it. Daily changes of wall surfaces of high buildings and road surface were calculated. Increase in the air temperature in the back stream of building roofs with increased temperature was determined. 4 figs.

Mizuno, T.; Yamamoto, S.; Yoshikado, H.; Kondo, H.; Kaneho, N.; Saegusa, N.; Inaba, A. [National Institute for Resources and Environment, Tsukuba (Japan); Inoue, M. [New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization, Tokyo, (Japan)

1997-02-01

304

US Food and Drug Administration's Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy for extended-release and long-acting opioids: pros and cons, and a European perspective.  

Science.gov (United States)

Prescriptions for opioid analgesics to manage moderate-to-severe chronic non-cancer pain have increased markedly over the last decade. An unintentional consequence of greater prescription opioid utilization has been the parallel increase in misuse, abuse and overdose, which are serious risks associated with all opioid analgesics. In response to disturbing rises in prescription opioid abuse, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has proposed the implementation of aggressive Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS). While REMS could dramatically change the development, release, marketing and prescription of extended-release opioids, questions remain on how these programmes may influence prescribing practices, patient safety and ultimately patient access to these agents. The extent of the availability and misuse of prescription opioids in Europe is difficult to assess from the data currently available, due in large part to the considerable differences in prescribing patterns and regulations between countries. Balancing the availability of prescription opioids for those patients who have pain, while discouraging illicit use, is a complex challenge and requires effective efforts on many levels, particularly in Europe where policies are quite different between countries. PMID:23116252

Mercadante, Sebastiano; Craig, David; Giarratano, Antonello

2012-12-24

305

Proceedings of the Canadian Institute's 4. annual oil sands supply and infrastructure conference : maximizing opportunity and mitigating risks in a rapidly growing market  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This conference addressed the challenges facing oil sands development, with particular reference to supply and infrastructure issues. Updates on oil sands markets and opportunities were presented along with strategies for mitigating risks in a rapidly growing market. The best practices for supplying a demanding market through supply shortages and high prices were identified along with policies that should be implemented to help overcome labour shortages. Some presentations expressed how commodities pricing and trends can impact business. Others showed how markets in China and the United States are prepared for oilsands products. The views of other international companies on oil sands was also discussed along with proposed plans to eliminate the infrastructure congestion and risks caused by expanding oil sands development. The challenges and benefits of investing in Alberta's oil sands were reviewed along with strategies to enhance upgrading and refining capacity in the province. Economic drivers and the creation of new markets were examined, and various export opportunities were reviewed along with industry management challenges concerning human resources, labour supply, training and education. The conference featured 10 presentations, of which 3 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs

306

Development of Technology Readiness Level (TRL) Metrics and Risk Measures  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This is an internal project milestone report to document the CCSI Element 7 team's progress on developing Technology Readiness Level (TRL) metrics and risk measures. In this report, we provide a brief overview of the current technology readiness assessment research, document the development of technology readiness levels (TRLs) specific to carbon capture technologies, describe the risk measures and uncertainty quantification approaches used in our research, and conclude by discussing the next steps that the CCSI Task 7 team aims to accomplish.

Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Anderson, K. K.; Sivaramakrishnan, Chandrika; Lansing, Carina

2012-10-01

307

High Spatial Resolution Thermal Remote Sensing of the Urban Heat Island Effect: Assessment of Risks to Human Health and Development of Mitigation Strategies for Sustainable Cities  

Science.gov (United States)

The growth of cities, both in population and in areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80% of the world's population will live in cities. One of the more egregious side effects of urbanization is the deterioration in air quality as a result of increased vehicular traffic, industrialization and related activities. In the United States alone, under the more stringent air quality guidelines established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1997, nearly 300 counties in 34 states will not meet the new air quality standards for ground level ozone. The mitigation of one the physical/environmental characteristics of urbanization known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect, is now being looked at more closely as a possible way to bring down ground level ozone levels in cities and assist states in improving air quality. The UHI results from the replacement of "natural" land covers (e.g., trees, grass) with urban land surface types, such as pavement and buildings. Heat stored in these surfaces is released into the air and results in a "dome" of elevated air temperatures that presides over cities. The effect of this dome of elevated air temperatures is known as the UHI, which is most prevalent about 2-3 hours after sunset on days with intense solar radiation and calm winds. Given the local and regional impacts of the UHI, there are significant potential affects on human health, particularly as related to heat stress and ozone on body temperature regulation and on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. In this study we are using airborne and satellite remote sensing data to analyze how differences in the urban landscape influence or drive the development of the UHI over four U.S. cities. Additionally, we are assessing what the potential impact is on risks to human health, and developing mitigation strategies to make urban areas more environmentally sustainable.

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Rickman, Douglas L.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Laymon, Charles A.; Crosson, William; Howell, Burgess F.; Gillani, Noor V.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

308

Remote Sensing of the Urban Heat Island Effect: Assessment of Risks to Human Health and Development of Mitigation Strategies for Sustainable Cities  

Science.gov (United States)

The growth of cities, both in population and in areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80% of the world's population will live in cities. One of the more egregious side effects of urbanization is the deterioration in air quality as a result of increased vehicular traffic, industrialization and related activities. In the United States alone, under the more stringent air quality guidelines established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1997, nearly 300 counties in 34 states will not meet the new air quality standards for ground level ozone. The mitigation of one the physical/environmental characteristics of urbanization known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect, is now being looked at more closely as a possible way to bring down ground level ozone levels in cities and assist states in improving air quality. The UHI results from the replacement of "natural" land covers (e.g., trees, grass) with urban land surface types, such as pavement and buildings. Heat stored in these surfaces is released into the air and results in a "dome" of elevated air temperatures that presides over cities. The effect of this dome of elevated air temperatures is known as the UHI, which is most prevalent about 2-3 hours after sunset on days with intense solar radiation and calm winds. Given the local and regional impacts of the UHI, there are significant potential affects on human health, particularly as related to heat stress and ozone on body temperature regulation and on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. In this study we are using airborne and satellite remote sensing data to analyze how differences in the urban landscape influence or drive the development of the UHI over four U.S. cities. Additionally, we are assessing what the potential impact is on risks to human health, and developing mitigation strategies to make urban areas more environmentally sustainable.

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Rickman, Douglas L.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Laymon, Charles A.; Crosson, William; Howell, Burgess F.; Gillani, Noor V.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

309

Measuring and hedging financial risks in dynamical world  

CERN Document Server

Financial markets have developed a lot of strategies to control risks induced by market fluctuations. Mathematics has emerged as the leading discipline to address fundamental questions in finance as asset pricing model and hedging strategies. History began with the paradigm of zero-risk introduced by Black & Scholes stating that any random amount to be paid in the future may be replicated by a dynamical portfolio. In practice, the lack of information leads to ill-posed problems when model calibrating. The real world is more complex and new pricing and hedging methodologies have been necessary. This challenging question has generated a deep and intensive academic research in the 20 last years, based on super-replication (perfect or with respect to confidence level) and optimization. In the interplay between theory and practice, Monte Carlo methods have been revisited, new risk measures have been back-tested. These typical examples give some insights on how may be used mathematics in financial risk manageme...

Karoui, N E

2003-01-01

310

Importance measures for use in PRAs and risk management  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

There are many quantities estimated in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) to index the level of plant safety. If the PRA is to be used as a risk management tool to assist in the safe operation of the plant, it is essential that those elements of the plant design and its mode of operation that have the greatest impact on plant safety be identified. These elements may be identified by performing importance calculations. There are certain decisions that must be made before the importance calculation is carried out. The first is the definition of the events for which importance is to be evaluated; that is, to what level of resolution the analysis is to be performed. The second decision that must be made--and the major subject of this paper--is the choice of importance measure. Many measures of importance have been proposed; this discussion is restricted to three: the risk achievement (or degradation) worth, the risk reduction worth, and criticality importance. In the paper these measures of importance are defined, their interrelationships are discussed, and a generalized importance measure is introduced. The use of these three measures is compared and their advantages and disadvantages are discussed

311

Application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to mitigate operating and maintenance cost increases for nuclear power plants  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Operating nuclear power generation facilities face increased pressure from state utility commissions to improve the cost effectiveness of operations and maintenance programs. Some costs are not allowed for inclusion in the current rate base and represent an operating loss to the utility. State regulators seem more willing to use operating and maintenance cost comparisons of competing technologies, such as existing fossil and cogeneration facilities. In contrast to these pressures are the requirements applied by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to improve the ''quality'' of operations. The NRC, as a regulator, sometimes uses conflicting parameters to judge the effectiveness of operations, and often issues regulations that significantly impact operating costs. As Individual Plant Examinations (IPEs) are completed and submitted to the NRC for review, numerous additional opportunities exist for application of PRA methodology and plant specific results to address the risk impact of recent regulations. Quadrex Corporation is currently performing research for the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) to investigate the application of risk analysis to improve the cost effectiveness of operations and maintenance programs for nuclear plants. The project is being performed with the cooperation of two participating utilities. The focus of the investigation is the use of the plant specific risk analysis to improve the cost effectiveness of efforts associated with utility respos of efforts associated with utility response to NRC Generic Letter 89-10; a program that can significantly increase the requirements for motor-operated valve testing and surveillance programs

312

Application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to mitigate operating and maintenance cost increases for nuclear power plants  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Operating nuclear power generation facilities face increased pressure from state utility commissions to improve the cost effectiveness of operations and maintenance programs. Some costs are not allowed for inclusion in the current rate base and represent an operating loss to the utility. State regulators seem more willing to use operating and maintenance cost comparisons of competing technologies, such as existing fossil and cogeneration facilities. In contrast to these pressures are the requirements applied by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to improve the ''quality'' of operations. The NRC, as a regulator, sometimes uses conflicting parameters to judge the effectiveness of operations, and often issues regulations that significantly impact operating costs. As Individual Plant Examinations (IPEs) are completed and submitted to the NRC for review, numerous additional opportunities exist for application of PRA methodology and plant specific results to address the risk impact of recent regulations. Quadrex Corporation is currently performing research for the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) to investigate the application of risk analysis to improve the cost effectiveness of operations and maintenance programs for nuclear plants. The project is being performed with the cooperation of two participating utilities. The focus of the investigation is the use of the plant specific risk analysis to improve the cost effectiveness of efforts associated with utility response to NRC Generic Letter 89-10; a program that can significantly increase the requirements for motor-operated valve testing and surveillance programs. (author). 11 refs, 1 tab

313

Study on the possibility of measurement of individual risk perception  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In industry, because of retirement of postwar baby-boom generation and decreasing labor accident by improvement in facilities, diminished worker's risk perception is concerned about. Although hazard prediction activity (KY: Kiken-Yochi) is carried out for improvement of workers' risk perception in sites, it is get into a rut not to estimate the effects of the activity. Then the purpose of this study is to examine the possibility of measuring and estimating individual inherent risk perception not depending on the experiences and knowledge, and to confirm the effects of the experiences and knowledge on one's risk perception. Eleven subjects were requested to detect the hazards and to estimate the results and the extents of damage in the three films (1: working at an office (all subjects had the experience), 2: feeding at the GS (gas station) (half of them had the experience), 3: overhauling a valve (no one had the experience)) that were included in some hazards. The rate of hazards detection and the accuracies of 5 categories, that were hazards, results, damage of human, damage of objects or facilities and coping, were calculated. The experience of feeding had effects on the rate of hazards detection and some of the accuracies at the film of feeding at the GS. Also, all of indices were significantly lower at the firm of overhauling a valve than the firm of working at an office. These results showed that the experiences and knowledge were affected on one's risk perceptioedge were affected on one's risk perception. Meanwhile, the similarity of the tendency to the rate of hazards detection and the accuracies between 2 firms except for the firm of feeding was found by means of the ordinal correlation. The result showed that it will be able to measure the individual inherent risk perception from the number of hazards detection and the depth of the context. The future issues are discussed for developing the method to evaluate the risk perception. (author)

314

Hydrogen hazard and mitigation analysis in PWR containment  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Highlights: • Reactor severe accident due to hydrogen risk. • Hydrogen explosion in PWR containment. • Mitigation of hydrogen risk with the implantation of recombiners. • Regulatory requirement considerations. - Abstract: This paper describes the analytical results for the estimation of hydrogen concentration in the containment atmosphere based on zirconium oxidation reaction following a severe accident. The analysis provides useful information about the potential challenge of local hydrogen accumulation in the containment, which may be used to reduce the hydrogen detonation risk and to design the capacity and arrangements of mitigation measures. The containment analysis has been performed using computer code COGAP which uses the scenario of loss of coolant accident. The behavior of pressure and hydrogen concentrations in containment as a function of time under the severe accident condition is presented in graphical form. The mitigation measures (recombiners) are essential to maintain containment atmosphere in the safe stable conditions. A hydrogen control system is to mitigate the hydrogen risk by comparing results from a reference accident sequence with and without recombiners. This comparison show that combustible gas occur in few local areas in the containment for a limited time span and hydrogen concentration is reduced significantly with the use of recombiners

315

Epidemiologic measures of risk as a basis for legal compensation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The scientific basis for compensation of persons developing cancer who have a documented history of exposure to radiation or other carcinogens is an important legal issue. The measure Relative Attributable Risk (RAR) has been proposed as a basis for determining eligibility for compensation. The purpose of this report is to present results of an analysis of the magnitude and sources of uncertainty in the RAR measure. The range of 1/106/rad-year to 6/106/rad-year was chosen as a reasonable range of excess-risk estimates for thyroid cancer based on published estimates. The use of such a range in risk estimates produces very wide variability in RAR estimates. Uncertainty in underlying incidence levels and in dosimetry are other major factors contributing to large variability in estimated RAR levels

316

Environmental benefits and risks of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI) for in situ remediation: Risk mitigation or trade-off?  

Science.gov (United States)

The use of nanoscaled zero-valent iron particles (nZVI) to remediate contaminated soil and groundwater has received increasing amounts of attention within the last decade, primarily due to its potential for broader application, higher reactivity, and cost-effectiveness compared to conventional zero-valent iron applications and other in situ methods. However, the potential environmental risks of nZVI in in situ field scale applications are largely unknown at the present and traditional environmental risk assessment approaches are not yet able to be completed. Therefore, it may not yet be fully clear how to consider the environmental benefits and risks of nZVI for in situ applications. This analysis therefore addresses the challenges of comprehensively considering and weighing the expected environmental benefits and potential risks of this emerging environmentally-beneficial nanotechnology, particularly relevant for environmental engineers, scientists, and decision makers. We find that most of the benefits of using nZVI are based on near-term considerations, and large data gaps currently exist within almost all aspects of environmental exposure and effect assessments. We also find that while a wide range of decision support tools and frameworks alternative to risk assessment are currently available, a thorough evaluation of these should be undertaken in the near future to assess their full relevancy for nZVI at specific sites. Due to the absence of data in environmental risk evaluations, we apply a 'best' and 'worst' case scenario evaluation as a first step to qualitatively evaluate the current state-of-knowledge regarding the potential environmental risks of nZVI. The result of this preliminary qualitative evaluation indicates that at present, there are no significant grounds on which to form the basis that nZVI currently poses a significant, apparent risk to the environment, although the majority of the most serious criteria (i.e. potential for persistency, bioaccumulation, toxicity) are generally unknown. We recommend that in cases where nZVI may be chosen as the 'best' treatment option, short and long-term environmental monitoring is actively employed at these sites. We furthermore recommend the continued development of responsible nZVI innovation and better facilitated information exchange between nZVI developers, nano-risk researchers, remediation industry, and decision makers.

Grieger, Khara D.; Fjordbøge, Annika; Hartmann, Nanna B.; Eriksson, Eva; Bjerg, Poul L.; Baun, Anders

2010-11-01

317

Use of risk importance measures in maintenance prioritization  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A RCM method has been developed at EDF since 1990 to optimize maintenance through a prioritization of resources for equipment that are important in terms of safety, availability and maintenance costs. In 1994, the Nuclear Power Plant Operations Division decided to apply this method to the most important systems of the French PWRs. About 50 systems are in the scope of the RCM. Those that have a role in safety were ranked depending on their contribution to the risk of core melt provided by PSAs. The RCM studies on the 20 most important to safety systems are performed by the Nuclear Power Plant Operations division, the other 30 systems are studied on sites. The RCM study consists first in the research of equipment and failures modes significant to safety, availability or maintenance costs and the evaluation of the performance of those equipment. Those studies lead to the distinction of equipment and failure modes that are critical or non critical to safety, availability and costs. The last part of the study consists in optimizing maintenance on those equipment. In this process, risk measures are used to help defining equipment and failure modes critical to safety. This is done by calculation of risk importance measures provided by PSAs. We explain in this paper which measures of risk have been defined, how PSAs allow calculation of those measures, and how we used those results in the RCM studies we processed. We give also extensions of the use of those measures in the process of defining optimized maintenance tasks. After having defined a RCM method for the French PWRs, the Nuclear Power plant Operations Division decided to start a generalized program of maintenance optimization for the most important systems. The three criteria on which the method relies are: safety, unit availability and maintenance costs. We present here the safety aspect of the method and more precisely these of risk importance measures in the RCM process. (author)

318

General acceptance sets, risk measures and optimal capital injections  

CERN Document Server

We consider financial positions belonging to the Banach lattice of bounded measurable functions on a given measurable space. We discuss risk measures generated by general acceptance sets allowing for capital injections to be invested in a pre-specified eligible asset with an everywhere positive payoff. Risk measures play a key role when defining required capital for a financial institution. We address the three critical questions: when is required capital a well-defined number for any financial position? When is required capital a continuous function of the financial position? Can the eligible asset be chosen in such a way that for every financial position the corresponding required capital is lower than if any other asset had been chosen? In contrast to most of the literature our discussion is not limited to convex or coherent acceptance sets and allows for eligible assets that are not necessarily bounded away from zero. This generality uncovers some unexpected phenomena and opens up the field for applicatio...

Farkas, Walter; Munari, Cosimo-Andrea

2012-01-01

319

Measuring workaholism: content validity of the Work Addiction Risk Test.  

Science.gov (United States)

A total of 20 psychotherapists, randomly selected from a state list, critically examined the 25 items on the Work Addiction Risk Test for content validity. Subjects were asked to identify 25 items from a list of 35 which most accurately measured work addiction. Selected test items have generally high content validity for the domain of work addiction. PMID:8559897

Robinson, B E; Phillips, B

1995-10-01

320

MEASURING RISK PROFILE WITH A MULTIDIMENSIONAL RASCH ANALYSIS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In this paper we propose an evaluation of investors’ risk profiles such as to meet the minimal requirements that Italian financial institutions must satisfy by law (d. lgs. 164, 2007. Thus we investigate all aspects specific to so-called risk profiles: an investor’s knowledge and his financial experience (concerning financial instruments and their use; financial objectives, a personal predisposition to risk /earn and the temporal horizon. The methodology used in financial literature with regard to risk profiles is essentially based on simplistic statistical analyses that often fail to consider possible psychological aspects. In order to account for investor preferences and psychological attitudes, we suggest to use an item response theory model. We first assume a unidimensional model, belonging to the family of Rasch models and then, as an alternative approach, a Generalized Multidimensional Rasch model. In particular, the objective is to assess the value of a questionnaire whose items describe different characteristics of the main latent variable risk profile. Under the assumption of a multidimensional measurement model, given the multivariate position of each investor with respect to identified latent traits we can represent his position with respect to possible investments proposed by a bank and we can identify different situations that respect the investor’s risk profile and best characterize typical investor choices.

Valeria CAVIEZEL

2011-12-01

321

VAR Methodology Used for Exchange Risk Measurement and Prevention  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In this article we discuss one of the modern risk measuring techniques Value-at-Risk (VaR. Currently central banks in major money centers, under the auspices of the BIS Basle Committee, adopt the VaR system to evaluate the market risk of their supervised banks. Banks regulators ask all commercial banks to report VaRs with their internal models. Value at risk (VaR is a powerful tool for assessing market risk, but it also imposes a challenge. Its power is its generality. Unlike market risk metrics such as the Greeks, duration and convexity, or beta, which are applicable to only certain asset categories or certain sources of market risk, VaR is general. It is based on the probability distribution for a portfolio’s market value. Value at Risk (VAR calculates the maximum loss expected (or worst case scenario on an investment, over a given time period and given a specified degree of confidence. There are three methods by which VaR can be calculated: the historical simulation, the variance-covariance method and the Monte Carlo simulation. The variance-covariance method is easiest because you need to estimate only two factors: average return and standard deviation. However, it assumes returns are well-behaved according to the symmetrical normal curve and that historical patterns will repeat into the future. The historical simulation improves on the accuracy of the VAR calculation, but requires more computational data; it also assumes that “past is prologue”. The Monte Carlo simulation is complex, but has the advantage of allowing users to tailor ideas about future patterns that depart from historical patterns.

Florentina Balu

2006-05-01

322

Riscos e controles internos: uma metodologia de mensuração dos níveis de controle de riscos empresariais Internal risks and controls: a methodology to measure business risk control levels  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Este artigo apresenta uma metodologia de mensuração do nível de controle de riscos inerentes aos processos de qualquer entidade, a partir da construção de um índice de desempenho definido em função da capacidade dos controles mitigarem os riscos e da eficácia dos controles implantados. O modelo possibilita ao gestor de riscos identificar para quais riscos são necessárias ações de melhoria de controle, quais possuem níveis de controles adequados e quais controles em excesso, contribuindo, assim, para a otimização da aplicação dos recursos disponíveis para a gestão de riscos e controles internos nas empresas. A metodologia foi aplicada a um estudo de caso e mostrou-se satisfatória do ponto de vista de avaliação e identificação dos níveis de controle.This paper presents a control measurement methodology applied in the processes performed by any entity. The methodology is derived from the analysis of the mitigation capabilities of the controls currently in use by the entity. The method enables risk managers to identify which risks require urgent actions to improve the control levels, which risks are already adequately controlled and which ones are in a situation of excessive control. This kind of information can play an important role to improve the application of available internal risk and control management resources in companies. The methodology was applied to a case study and revealed to be a satisfactory tool to assess and identify control levels.

Wanderlei de Lima De Paulo

2007-04-01

323

Short and long term efficiencies of debris risk reduction measures: Application to a European LEO mission  

Science.gov (United States)

Recent numerical studies indicate that the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment has reached a point such that even if no further space launches were conducted, the Earth satellite population would remain relatively constant for only the next 50 years or so. Beyond that, the debris population would begin to increase noticeably, due to the production of collisional debris (Liou and Johnson, 2008). Measures to be enforced play thus a major role to preserve an acceptable space mission risk and ensure sustainable space activities. The identification of such measures and the quantification of their efficiency over time for LEO missions is of prime concern in the decision-making process, as it has been investigated for the last few decades by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). This paper addresses the final results of a generic methodology and the characteristics of a tool developed to assess the efficiency of the risk reduction measures identified for the Sentinel-1 (S1) mission. This work is performed as part of the 34-month P2-ROTECT project (Prediction, Protection & Reduction of OrbiTal Exposure to Collision Threats), funded by the European Union within the Seventh Framework Programme. Three ways of risk reduction have been investigated, both in short and long-term, namely: better satellite protection, better conjunction prediction, and cleaner environment. According to our assumptions, the S1 mission vulnerability evaluations in the long term (from 2093 to 2100) show that full compliance to the mitigation measures leads to a situation twice safer than that induced by an active debris removal of 5 objects per year in a MASTER2009 Business-As-Usual context. Because these measures have visible risk reduction effects in the long term, complementary measures with short response time are also studied. In the short term (from 2013 to 2020), a better prediction of the conjunctions is more efficient than protecting the satellite S1 itself. By combining a better prediction with an enhanced satellite protection the S1 is estimated to extend its extra mission lifetime by 4% with respect to its nominal lifetime (7.25 years).

Lang, T.; Kervarc, R.; Bertrand, S.; Carle, P.; Donath, T.; Destefanis, R.; Grassi, L.; Tiboldo, F.; Schäfer, F.; Kempf, S.; Gelhaus, J.

2015-01-01

324

Approving the ISDWIR Method of Risk Measurement in Making Risk Management Decision || Aprobación del método de medición del riesgo SIIPDR en el manejo de asunción de riesgos  

OpenAIRE

This paper is devoted to risk management and risk measurement methods. The author considers methods of risk measurement and proposes the Integral Sum of Diff erential Weighted Indexes of Risks (or ISDWIR) method of risk measurement. The method is based on dynamic enterprise risk matrices. The matrix describes the changes of corporate risk values over the time. The method assists to choose risk management decision having good e ffects on corporate risk values. The ISDWIR method is also c...

Strelnik, Mikhail

2014-01-01

325

Irradiation embrittlement mitigation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mitigation methods for reducing the irradiation damage on pressure vessel materials are reviewed: load leakage loading schemes are commonly used in PWRs to mitigate reactor pressure vessel embrittlement; dummy assemblies have been applied in WWER 440-type and in some old western power plants, when exceptional fast embrittlement has been encountered; shielding of the pressure vessel has been developed, but is not in common use; pre-stressing the pressure vessel has been proposed for preventing PTS failures, but its applicability is not yet demonstrated. The large number of successful annealing treatments performed in WWER 440 type reactors as well as research on the effects of annealing treatments suggest applications for western PWRs. The emergency core cooling systems have been modified in WWER 440-type reactors in connection with other mitigation measures. (authors). 37 refs., 18 figs., 2 tabs

326

Measuring risk of crude oil at extreme quantiles  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of VaR models at measuring risk for WTI oil one-month futures returns. Risk models, ranging from industry standards such as RiskMetrics and historical simulation to conditional extreme value model, are used to calculate commodity market risk at extreme quantiles: 0.95, 0.99, 0.995 and 0.999 for both long and short trading positions. Our results show that out of the tested fat tailed distributions, generalised Pareto distribution provides the best fit to both tails of oil returns although tails differ significantly, with the right tail having a higher tail index, indicative of more extreme events. The main conclusion is that, in the analysed period, only extreme value theory based models provide a reasonable degree of safety while widespread VaR models do not provide adequate risk coverage and their performance is especially weak for short position in oil.

Saša Žikovi?

2011-06-01

327

Optimisation and Implementation of the R2E Shielding and Relocation Mitigation Measures at the LHC during the LS1  

CERN Document Server

In the framework of the Radiation to Electronics (R2E) project, important mitigation actions are being implemented in the LHC during the first Long Shutdown (LS1) to reduce the Single Event Error (SEE) occurrence in standard electronics present in much of the equipment installed in the LHC underground areas. Recent simulations have motivated additional actions to be performed in Point 4, in addition to those already scheduled in Points 1, 5, 7 and 8. This paper presents the organisation process carried out during LS1 to optimise the implementation of the R2E mitigation activities. It reports the challenges linked to civil engineering and to safe room relocation in Points 5 and 7. It highlights the reactivity needed to face the new mitigation requirements to be implemented in Point 4 before the end of LS1. It presents the advancement status of the R2E mitigation activities in the different LHC points with the main concerns and impact with the overall LHC LS1 planning.

Perrot, A L; Barberan Marin, M; Brugger, M; Corso, J P; Foraz, K; Jeckel, M; Lazzaroni, M; Lefort, B; Mikulec, B; Muttoni, Y

2014-01-01

328

Evaluation of buffer zone effectiveness in mitigating the risks associated with agricultural runoff in Prince Edward Island.  

Science.gov (United States)

To minimize the risk posed by runoff from row crops, Prince Edward Island introduced buffer legislation in 2000. The legislation mandates 10-m and 20-m buffers, respectively, for moderate sloped (i.e. 5%) agricultural fields that border streams. Since 2001, Environment Canada has been evaluating the effectiveness of various buffer widths on operational farms in reducing toxicity and contaminant concentrations in runoff. Sample collectors, placed in 44 fields at the field edge (0m), 10m and at distances out to 30m, collected overland flow following rainfall-induced runoff events. Samples were collected within 24 hours of an event and analysed for seven pesticides (endosulfan, chlorothalonil, carbofuran, linuron, metribuzin, metalaxyl, mancozeb), water quality parameters and Daphnia magna toxicity. The 10-m buffer required for moderate sloped fields was effective at reducing contaminant concentrations but not always to less than lethal concentrations to Daphnia magna. Limited data beyond 10m for fields of both slope types precluded making recommendations on a suitable buffer width for shallow sloped fields and evaluating the effectiveness of 20-m buffers for steep sloped fields. When paired data were combined and statistically tested for all fields, the studied pesticides underwent a 52-98% and 68-100% reduction in aqueous and particulate concentrations within 10m and 30m, respectively. In addition, by 10m, soluble phosphorus, nitrate-nitrogen and total suspended solids were reduced by 34%, 38% and 64%, respectively. Results suggest buffer zones on operational farms are capable of achieving contaminant reductions comparable to those reported for controlled experiments. Inconsistent siting of sample collectors beyond 10m limited the evaluation of the effects of field slope and buffer width on buffer effectiveness on working farms. Future studies on buffer efficiency on operational farms should focus on building the data set beyond 10m and evaluating load reductions. PMID:21163513

Dunn, A M; Julien, G; Ernst, W R; Cook, A; Doe, K G; Jackman, P M

2011-02-01

329

Minimizing risks and monitoring safety of an antenatal care intervention to mitigate domestic violence among young Indian women: The Dil Mil trial  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background Domestic violence - physical, psychological, or sexual abuse perpetrated against women by one or more family members – is highly prevalent in India. However, relatively little research has been conducted on interventions with the potential to mitigate domestic violence and its adverse health consequences, and few resources exist to guide safety planning and monitoring in the context of intervention research. Dil Mil is a promising women’s empowerment-based intervention developed in India that engages with young women (daughters-in-law and their mothers-in-law to mitigate domestic violence and related adverse health outcomes. This paper describes the design of a randomized controlled trial of Dil Mil in Bengaluru, India, with a focus on strategies used to minimize study-related risks and monitor safety. Methods/design A phase 2 randomized controlled trial using a parallel comparison of the Dil Mil intervention versus standard care will be implemented in three public primary health centers in Bengaluru. Young pregnant women in the first or second trimester of pregnancy will be recruited from antenatal services at study health centers and through community outreach. If eligible and willing, their mother-in-law will also be recruited. Once enrolled, dyads will participate in a baseline interview and then randomized either to the control arm and receive standard care or to the intervention arm and receive standard care plus the Dil Mil intervention. Additional evaluations will be conducted at 3 months and 6 months postpartum. Data will be analyzed to examine the feasibility and safety of the intervention and the effect of the intervention on intermediary outcomes (the empowerment of daughters-in-law and mothers-in-law, incidence of domestic violence among daughters-in-law, and health outcomes including perceived quality of life, psychosocial status and maternal and infant health outcomes. Discussion This study offers approaches that may help guide safety planning and monitoring in other domestic violence intervention trials in similar settings. Moreover, given the staggeringly high prevalence of domestic violence against young women in India (and indeed globally and the dearth of data on effective interventions, this study is poised to make an important contribution to the evidence-base for domestic violence prevention. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01337778

Krishnan Suneeta

2012-11-01

330

A new importance measure for risk-informed decision making  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Recently, several authors pointed out that the traditional importance measures had limitations. In this study, the problem through an analysis at the parameter level was investigated and a new measure was introduced. The measure was based on small parameter variations and is capable of accounting for the importance of a group of components/parameters. The definition, computational steps, and an application of a new importance measure for risk-informed decision making were presented here. Unlike traditional importance measures, differential importance measure (DIM) deals with changes in the various parameters that determine the unavailability/unreliability of a component, e.g., failure rates, common-cause failure rates, individual human errors. The importance of the component unavailability/unreliability can be calculated from the importance of the parameters. DIM can be calculated for the frequency of initiating events, while risk achievement worth (RAW) is limited to binary events, e.g., component unavailability. The changes in parameters are 'small'. This is more realistic than the drastic assumption in RAW that the component is always down. DIM is additive. This allows the evaluation of the impact of changes, such as the relaxation of quality assurance requirements, which affect groups of parameters, e.g., the failure rates of a group of pumps. (M.N.)

331

Estimating financial risk measures for futures positions : a non-parametric approach  

OpenAIRE

This paper presents non-parametric estimates of spectral risk measures applied to long and short positions in 5 prominent equity futures contracts. It also compares these to estimates of two popular alternative measures, the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). The spectral risk measures are conditioned on the coefficient of absolute risk aversion, and the latter two are conditioned on the confidence level. Our findings indicate that all risk measures increase dramatically and the...

Cotter, John; Dowd, Kevin

2006-01-01

332

Cost effectiveness of risk-production measures for nuclear plants  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In this paper the systemic or global approach to cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures is reviewed, and its advantages and limitations are discussed. The method is applied to the problem of the cost-effectiveness of increasing the Angra 3 NPP containment wall thickness from the present 60 cm to 180 cm thick in order to prevent damage to the reactor core in case of a direct commercial aircraft crash on it. It is concluded that this measure is not cost-effective if the global approach is considered

333

Importance measures in reliability, risk, and optimization principles and applications  

CERN Document Server

This unique treatment systematically interprets a spectrum of importance measures to provide a comprehensive overview of their applications in the areas of reliability, network, risk, mathematical programming, and optimization. Investigating the precise relationships among various importance measures, it describes how they are modelled and combined with other design tools to allow users to solve readily many real-world, large-scale decision-making problems.  Presenting the state-of-the-art in network analysis, multistate systems, and application in modern systems, this book offers a c

Kuo, Way

2012-01-01

334

Measuring Profitability Impacts of Information Technology: Use of Risk Adjusted Measures.  

Science.gov (United States)

Focuses on understanding how investments in information technology are reflected in the income statements and balance sheets of firms. Shows that the relationship between information technology investments and corporate profitability is much better explained by using risk-adjusted measures of corporate profitability than using the same measures

Singh, Anil; Harmon, Glynn

2003-01-01

335

Measuring Credit Risk of Bank Customers Using Artificial Neural Network  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In many studies, the relationship between development of financial markets and economic growth has been proved. Credit risk is one of problems which banks are faced with it while doing their tasks. Credit risk means the probability of non-repayment of bank financial facilities granted to investors. If the credit risk decreases, banks will be more successful in performing their duties and have greater effect on economic growth of the country. Credit rating of customers and identifying good and bad customers, help banks lend to their good payers and hereby, they reduce probability of non-repayment. This paper aims to identify classification criteria for good customers and bad customers in Iranian banks. This study can classified in applied studies group and the research strategy is descriptive. Artificial neural network technique is used for financial facilities applicants' credit risk measurement and the calculations have been done by using SPSS and MATLAB software. Number of samples was 497 and 18 variables were used to identify good customers from bad customers. The results showed that, individual loan frequency and amount of loan had most important effect and also status of customer’s bank account, history of customer relationship with bank and received services had least important effect in identifying classification criteria of good and bad customers. The major contribution of this paper is specifying the most important determinants for rating of customers in Iran’s banking sector.

Mohsen Nazari

2013-01-01

336

Real-Time Earthquake Risk Mitigation Of Infrastructures Using Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Response Network  

Science.gov (United States)

The Istanbul EEW network consisting of 10 inland and 5 OBS strong motion stations located close to the Main Marmara Fault zone is operated by KOERI. Data transmission between the remote stations and the base station at KOERI is provided both with satellite and fiber optic cable systems. The continuous on-line data from these stations is used to provide real time warning for emerging potentially disastrous earthquakes. The data transmission time from the remote stations to the KOERI data center is a few milliseconds through fiber optic lines and less than a second via satellites. The early warning signal (consisting three alarm levels) is communicated to the appropriate servo shut-down systems of the receipent facilities, that automatically decide proper action based on the alarm level. Istanbul Gas Distribution Corporation (IGDAS) is one of the end users of the EEW signal. IGDAS, the primary natural gas provider in Istanbul, operates an extensive system 9,867 km of gas lines with 550 district regulators and 474,000 service boxes. State of-the-art protection systems automatically cut natural gas flow when breaks in the pipelines are detected. Since 2005, buildings in Istanbul using natural gas are required to install seismometers that automatically cut natural gas flow when certain thresholds are exceeded. IGDAS uses a sophisticated SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) system to monitor the state-of-health of its pipeline network. This system provides real-time information about quantities related to pipeline monitoring, including input-output pressure, drawing information, positions of station and RTU (remote terminal unit) gates, slum shut mechanism status at 581 district regulator sites. The SCADA system of IGDA? receives the EEW signal from KOERI and decide the proper actions according to the previously specified ground acceleration levels. Presently, KOERI sends EEW signal to the SCADA system of IGDAS Natural Gas Network of Istanbul. The EEW signal of KOERI is also transmitted to the serve shut down system of the Marmaray Rail Tube Tunnel and Commuter Rail Mass Transit System in Istanbul. The Marmaray system includes an undersea railway tunnel under the Bosphorus Strait. Several strong motion instruments are installed within the tunnel for taking measurements against strong ground shaking and early warning purposes. This system is integrated with the KOERI EEW System. KOERI sends the EEW signal to the command center of Marmaray. Having received the signal, the command center put into action the previously defined measurements. For example, the trains within the tunnel will be stopped at the nearest station, no access to the tunnel will be allowed to the trains approaching the tunnel, water protective caps will be closed to protect flood closing the connection between the onshore and offshore tunnels.

Zulfikar, Can; Pinar, Ali; Tunc, Suleyman; Erdik, Mustafa

2014-05-01

337

Spatially quantitative models for vulnerability analyses and resilience measures in flood risk management: Case study Rafina, Greece  

Science.gov (United States)

We will address spatially quantitative models for vulnerability analyses in flood risk management in the catchment of Rafina, 25 km east of Athens, Greece; and potential measures to reduce damage costs. The evaluation of flood damage losses is relatively advanced. Nevertheless, major problems arise since there are no market prices for the evaluation process available. Moreover, there is particular gap in quantifying the damages and necessary expenditures for the implementation of mitigation measures with respect to flash floods. The key issue is to develop prototypes for assessing flood losses and the impact of mitigation measures on flood resilience by adjusting a vulnerability model and to further develop the method in a Mediterranean region influenced by both, mountain and coastal characteristics of land development. The objective of this study is to create a spatial and temporal analysis of the vulnerability factors based on a method combining spatially explicit loss data, data on the value of exposed elements at risk, and data on flood intensities. In this contribution, a methodology for the development of a flood damage assessment as a function of the process intensity and the degree of loss is presented. It is shown that (1) such relationships for defined object categories are dependent on site-specific and process-specific characteristics, but there is a correlation between process types that have similar characteristics; (2) existing semi-quantitative approaches of vulnerability assessment for elements at risk can be improved based on the proposed quantitative method; and (3) the concept of risk can be enhanced with respect to a standardised and comprehensive implementation by applying the vulnerability functions to be developed within the proposed research. Therefore, loss data were collected from responsible administrative bodies and analysed on an object level. The used model is based on a basin scale approach as well as data on elements at risk exposed, and data on flash flood intensities. The model is composed of three basic parts: (1) the quantification of flood hazard via hydrologic and hydraulic calculations and the evaluation of flood intensity for various flood scenarios, (2) the determination of exposure to flood hazard using a semi-quantitative method for the determination of the hazard level, which serves the purpose for the spatial evaluation of corresponding quantities and (3) to show potential resilience measures to protect individual households. The aim of the study is to provide a modified framework for quantitative assessment of vulnerability of building damages and to show potential resilience measures to protect individual households.

Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Chiari, Michael; Hübl, Johannes; Maris, Fotis; Thaler, Thomas; Fuchs, Sven

2013-04-01

338

Flow processes and pressure evolution in aquifers during the injection of supercritical CO2 as a greenhouse gas mitigation measure  

OpenAIRE

Regional saline aquifers offer the greatest potential for very large-scale underground CO2 storage as a means of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Their dynamic storage capacity, in terms of induced increases in formation pressure, will limit the rate at which CO2 can be injected and may ultimately limit the amount of CO2 that can be stored. Generic flow models were generated to examine the effects on pressure evolution of various reservoir parameters (dimensions, permeability, porosity, p...

Chadwick, R. A.; Noy, D. J.; Holloway, S.

2009-01-01

339

Qualitative comparison of models for the assessment of mitigation measures in Europe with particular consideration of agriculture  

OpenAIRE

Agriculture in Europe is responsible for a considerable fraction of greenhouse gas emissions. Methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide emissions from agricultural sources account for about 10% of the total European greenhouse gas emissions. The contribution that agriculture can and should make to the achievement of the agreed European goals for emission reductions has to be assessed. The aim of this study is to analyse the possibilities and conditions for greenhouse gas mitigation in the agr...

Vabitsch, Anna Maria

2006-01-01

340

Hawaiian cultural influences on support for lava flow hazard mitigation measures during the January 1960 eruption of Ki??lauea volcano, Kapoho, Hawai'i  

Science.gov (United States)

In 1960, Ki??lauea volcano in Hawaii erupted, destroying most of the village of Kapoho and forcing evacuation of its approximately 300 residents. A large and unprecedented social science survey was undertaken during the eruption to develop an understanding of human behavior, beliefs, and coping strategies among the adult evacuees (n = 160). Identical studies were also performed in three control towns located at varying distances from the eruption site (n = 478). During these studies data were collected that characterized ethnic grouping and attitudes toward Hawaiian cultural issues such as belief in Pele and two lava flow mitigation measures-use of barriers and bombs to influence the flow of lava, but the data were never published. Using these forgotten data, we examined the relationship between Hawaiian cultural issues and attitudes toward the use of barriers and bombs as mitigation strategies to protect Kapoho. On average, 72% of respondents favored the construction of earthen barriers to hold back or divert lava and protect Kapoho, but far fewer agreed with the military's use of bombs (14%) to protect Kapoho. In contrast, about one-third of respondents conditionally agreed with the use of bombs. It is suggested that local participation in the bombing strategy may explain the increased conditional acceptance of bombs as a mitigation tool, although this can not be conclusively demonstrated. Belief in Pele and being of Hawaiian ethnicity did not reduce support for the use of barriers, but did reduce support for bombs in both bombing scenarios. The disparity in levels of acceptance of barriers versus bombing and of one bombing strategy versus another suggests that historically public attitudes toward lava flow hazard mitigation strategies were complex. A modern comparative study is needed before the next damaging eruption to inform debates and decisions about whether or not to interfere with the flow of lava. Recent changes in the current eruption of Ki??lauea make this a timely topic. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gregg, C.E.; Houghton, B.F.; Paton, D.; Swanson, D.A.; Lachman, R.; Bonk, W.J.

2008-01-01

341

Biological invasions: deriving the regions at risk from partial measurements  

CERN Document Server

We consider the problem of forecasting the regions at higher risk for newly introduced invasive species. Favourable and unfavourable regions may indeed not be known a priori, especially for exotic species whose hosts in native range and newly-colonised areas can be different. Assuming that the species is modelled by a logistic-like reaction-diffusion equation, we prove that the spatial arrangement of the favourable and unfavourable regions can theoretically be determined using only partial measurements of the population density: 1) a local "spatio-temporal" measurement, during a short time period and, 2) a "spatial" measurement in the whole region susceptible to colonisation. We then present a stochastic algorithm which is proved analytically, and then on several numerical examples, to be effective in deriving these regions.

Cristofol, Michel

2009-01-01

342

Time consistency and moving horizons for risk measures  

CERN Document Server

Decision making in the presence of randomness is an important problem, particularly in finance. Often, decision makers base their choices on the values of `risk measures' or `nonlinear expectations'; it is important to understand how these decisions evolve through time. In this paper, we consider how these decisions are affected by the use of a moving horizon, and the possible inconsistencies that this creates. By giving a formal treatment of time consistency without Bellman's equations, we show that there is a new sense in which these decisions can be seen as consistent.

Cohen, Samuel N

2009-01-01

343

Clarifying socio-economic impacts and mitigation measures related to potential changes in missions at the Rocky Flats Plant. Final report  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Research conducted to clarify the socioeconomic impacts on the Denver-Boulder area of potential changes in missions at the Rocky Flats Plant and the mitigation measures taken to contain these impacts are described. Two primary alternatives have been examined, including the relocation of certain activities associated with radioactive materials, as well as a total phase out of the plant over the next decade. These perspectives include an assessment of alternative uses for Rocky Flats by both governmental agencies and private sector developers. Major findings address location, employment, public involvement, private enterprises, community attitudes, employee relocation; land use; and environment

344

[Dose measurement and risk evaluation in intraoral periapical radiography].  

Science.gov (United States)

To measure the absorbed dose and evaluate the radiation risk of patient from full mouth series intraoral dental radiography, we used the LiF thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLD-100 chips) to detect the radiation dose of patients and RT-HUMANOID phantom as well. We also used water phantom and extracted human teeth to simulate the oral cavity and measure the absorbed dose of tooth while the intraoral dental radiography was taken. The average absorbed dose of skin near the thyroid gland of patient is 72.2 mu Gy from full mouth series intraoral radiograph with 14 dental films (speed D) using Gendex Panelipse II X-ray machine (75-80kVp, 15mA, 0.25s, FSD = 34-36 cm) with neck shield protection, and the radiation risk of thyroid gland of stochastic effect is estimated to be 3.6 x 10(-8). We also calculated the effective atomic number of enamel and dentin for obtaining the conversion factor of tooth. Four sets of figures were drawn to express the absorbed dose in water phantom and tooth in some different exposure conditions. PMID:7807613

Chiu, P C; Yan, Y H; Lin, S H; Chang, P S

1994-10-01

345

PRIS: A multiple-item scale for measuring perceived risk of Internet shopping  

OpenAIRE

The purpose of this study is to report the development of a scale to measure perceived risk associated with online shopping. This research identified a model of perceived risks consisting of four components: financial risk, product performance risk, time/convenience risk and privacy/security risk. ^ Principal component analysis and confirmatory factor analyses were used, and convergent and discriminant validity were assessed in the scale development procedures to support the Perceived Ris...

Chen, Chiu

2012-01-01

346

Measurement and Control of Operational Risk of Banking Industry based on Complex Network  

OpenAIRE

Operational risk has been great challenges of commercial banks and financial institutions since losses caused by operational risk have been significantly greater than ever before. In order to control and manage operational risk better?clear awareness of the operational risk conduction mechanism is helpful to further understand the whole dynamic process of the risks affecting the business. Traditional researches focus on the method to measure the risk more accurately, but...

Xiaoling Hao; Songqiao Han

2014-01-01

347

Measurement and Control of Operational Risk of Banking Industry based on Complex Network  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Operational risk has been great challenges of commercial banks and financial institutions since losses caused by operational risk have been significantly greater than ever before. In order to control and manage operational risk better?clear awareness of the operational risk conduction mechanism is helpful to further understand the whole dynamic process of the risks affecting the business. Traditional researches focus on the method to measure the risk more accurately, but few studies took into account the conduction mechanism of operational risk. This paper constructs operational risk network to simulate the contagion process of operational risk and put forward new measurement model based on complex network. First, properties of the operational risk network is analyzed, and risk spreading process in the network is described. Then, a load model is established to explain the conduction mechanism of operational risk factors. Next, a new measurement method of operational risk based on BA model is presented to make Monte Carlo simulation and calculate the amount of operational risk losses in the operational risk network. Also, this model is used to simulate the affecting factors in the operational risk network. The simulation results show that the degree of operational risk network as well as the selection of initial node plays an important role on losses, and thus some control recommendations based on the simulation results is given. Finally, a framework of operational risk management system is designed to apply this research result into practice.

Xiaoling Hao

2014-04-01

348

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy  

Science.gov (United States)

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

349

Extreme Spectral Risk Measures: An Application to Futures Clearinghouse Margin Requirements  

OpenAIRE

This paper applies the Extreme-Value (EV) Generalised Pareto distribution to the extreme tails of the return distributions for the S&P500, FT100, DAX, Hang Seng, and Nikkei225 futures contracts. It then uses tail estimators from these contracts to estimate spectral risk measures, which are coherent risk measures that reflect a user's risk-aversion function. It compares these to VaR and Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measures, and compares the precision of their estimators. It ...

Cotter, John; Dowd, Kevin

2011-01-01

350

Spectral Risk Measures with an Application to Futures Clearinghouse Variation Margin Requirements  

OpenAIRE

This paper applies an AR(1)-GARCH (1, 1) process to detail the conditional distributions of the return distributions for the S&P500, FT100, DAX, Hang Seng, and Nikkei225 futures contracts. It then uses the conditional distribution for these contracts to estimate spectral risk measures, which are coherent risk measures that reflect a user's risk-aversion function. It compares these to more familiar VaR and Expected Shortfall (ES) measures of risk, and also compares the precis...

Cotter, John; Dowd, Kevin

2011-01-01

351

Security of Energy Supply - Indicators for Measuring Vulnerability and Risk  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In an era of increasing globalization, secure and affordable energy supplies are an essential requirement for economies to work, much less develop and grow in the long term. The present study, Energy security of supply - indicators for measuring vulnerability and risk, develops a broad methodical assessment concept to raise awareness among policy makers and the public regarding the vulnerability of energy supplies to potential energy crises. It explores the different aspects of vulnerability, from the primary energy level to energy infrastructure (storage, networks, power plant parks) to the efficiency and cost of energy consumption for end users. The individual characteristics of the formal concept were quantitatively evaluated for several OECD regions (Germany, UK, Sweden, Poland, Italy, France and the US) using a comprehensive empirical database and reduced to a single indicator for assessing energy supply vulnerability. Part of the database comprises historical observations for the period between 1978 and 2007.(author).

352

Framingham risk prediction equations for incidence of cardiovascular disease using detailed measures for smoking  

OpenAIRE

Current prediction models for risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence incorporate smoking as a dichotomous yes/no measure. However, the risk of CVD associated with smoking also varies with the intensity and duration of smoking and there is a strong association between time since quitting and the risk of disease onset. This study aims to develop improved risk prediction equations for CVD incidence incorporating intensity and duration of smoking and time since quitting. The risk of devel...

John McNeil; Helen Walls; Anna Peters; Chris Stevenson; Haider Rashid Mannan

2010-01-01

353

Nuclear risk reduction measures in South Asia: problems and prospects  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The last couple of years have brought significant changes in the relations between India and Pakistan. At the political level these include: the meeting of Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and President Pervez Musharraf in Islamabad in January 2004 and their readiness to revive the framework of contacts between India and Pakistan that was suspended following the crisis in 2001-2; the assumption of power by the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in May 2004 and its determination to continue the peace process initiated by the previous government; and the meeting between the new Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and General Pervez Musharraf in New York in September 2004, in New Delhi in April 2005 and again in New York in September 2005. Changes at the nuclear level have also been notable as evidenced in the several rounds of Indo-Pakistani expert level talks on Nuclear Confidence Building Measures held since 2004. The joint statement released after the second meeting of Islamabad in 2004 reiterated their commitment 'to keep working towards elaboration and implementation of nuclear confidence building measures within the agreed framework of the Lahore MoU of 1999 and the Joint Statement of 20 June 2004'. Despite these changes, however, the risk of intentional, accidental and unauthorized use of nuclear weapons remain a serious concern

354

Survey for the advertising effectiveness measurement of the website 'risk information navigator' and the risk message materials  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Risk communication activities are important for promoting mutual understanding between local communities and the Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute (hereinafter referred to as JNC). The Risk Communication Study Team of JNC Tokai Works has started practical studies to promote further mutual understanding with the local communities. Several communication tools such as poster panels, slide materials, videos, website contents and newsletters were developed as part of its risk communication activities. This paper describes the survey of the internet users in prefectures where nuclear power stations are located, for the advertising effectiveness measurement of nuclear risk information provided on the web site 'Risk Information Navigator' (http://ricotti.jnc.go.jp/risknavi/) and the risk message materials jointly produced by Tokai village's people and JNC. (author)

355

Association of Cardiovascular Risk Using Nonlinear Heart Rate Variability Measures with the Framingham Risk Score in a Rural Population  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Cardiovascular risk can be calculated using the Framingham cardiovascular disease (CVD risk score and provides a risk stratification from mild to very high CVD risk percentage over 10 years. This equation represents a complex interaction between age, gender, cholesterol status, blood pressure, diabetes status and smoking. Heart rate variability (HRV is a measure of how the autonomic nervous system modulates the heart rate. HRV measures are sensitive to age, gender, disease status such as diabetes and hypertension and processes leading to atherosclerosis. We investigated whether HRV measures are a suitable, simple, noninvasive alternative to differentiate between the four main Framingham associated CVD risk categories. In this study we applied the tone-entropy (T-E algorithm and complex correlation measure (CCM for analysis of heart rate variability obtained from 20 minute ECG recordings and correlated the HRV score with the stratification results using the Framingham risk equation. Both entropy and CCM had significant analysis of variance (ANOVA results (F172, 3 = 9.51; <0.0001. Bonferroni post hoc analysis indicated a significant difference between mild, high and very high cardiac risk groups applying tone-entropy (p<0.01. CCM detected a difference in temporal dynamics of the RR intervals between the mild and very high CVD risk groups (p<0.01. Our results indicate a good agreement between the T-E and CCM algorithm and the Framingham CVD risk score, suggesting that this algorithm may be of use for initial screening of cardiovascular risk as it is noninvasive, economical and easy to use in clinical practice.

HerbertFJelinek

2013-07-01

356

Impactos ambientais da mobilidade urbana: cinco categorias de medidas mitigadoras / Environmental impacts of urban mobility: five categories of mitigating measures  

Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

Full Text Available SciELO Brazil | Language: Portuguese Abstract in portuguese Desde 1970, a emissão de CO2 no setor industrial cresceu 65% em todo o mundo, contra 120% no de transportes - e 80% da energia utilizada para a mobilidade área urbana têm origem na queima de combustíveis fósseis. Assim, a motorização da mobilidade urbana é um dos principais emissores de gases de efe [...] ito estufa. Para analisar este cenário, este artigo toma como base a produção científica internacional produzida do Protocolo de Kyoto (1997) à conferência de Copenhague (2008) para levantar quais principais medidas para a redução do impacto ambiental, especialmente das emissões de CO2. Argumenta-se aqui que são cinco os grupos de medidas a partir da discussão de textos técnicos de órgãos internacionais e produção científica, sendo: econômico-fiscais e financeiras; regulatórias; informação e comunicação; planejamento urbano; e tecnológicas. Abstract in english Since 1970, in a world level emission of CO2 in industry has increased 65 percent; during the same period, it increased up to 120 percent in the transportation sector. And 80 percent of the energy used in urban mobility comes from fossil fuels. The motorization of urban mobility has therefore become [...] one of the main sources of greenhouse gases. We propose here an analysis of this scenario based on papers published by international scientific journals between 1997 (Kyoto Protocol) and 2008 (Copenhage Conference), trying to map which are the main mitigating actions which have been advanced by the scientific community and technical reports by international agencies. We argue here that these actions could be grouped in five categories: financial and economical; regulatory; information and communication; urban planning; and technological.

Rafael, Barczak; Fábio, Duarte.

2012-06-01

357

International perspectives on mitigating laboratory biorisks.  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The International Perspectives on Mitigating Laboratory Biorisks workshop, held at the Renaissance Polat Istanbul Hotel in Istanbul, Republic of Turkey, from October 25 to 27, 2010, sought to promote discussion between experts and stakeholders from around the world on issues related to the management of biological risk in laboratories. The event was organized by Sandia National Laboratories International Biological Threat Reduction program, on behalf of the US Department of State Biosecurity Engagement Program and the US Department of Defense Cooperative Biological Engagement Program. The workshop came about as a response to US Under Secretary of State Ellen O. Tauscher's statements in Geneva on December 9, 2009, during the Annual Meeting of the States Parties to the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC). Pursuant to those remarks, the workshop was intended to provide a forum for interested countries to share information on biorisk management training, standards, and needs. Over the course of the meeting's three days, participants discussed diverse topics such as the role of risk assessment in laboratory biorisk management, strategies for mitigating risk, measurement of performance and upkeep, international standards, training and building workforce competence, and the important role of government and regulation. The meeting concluded with affirmations of the utility of international cooperation in this sphere and recognition of positive prospects for the future. The workshop was organized as a series of short presentations by international experts on the field of biorisk management, followed by breakout sessions in which participants were divided into four groups and urged to discuss a particular topic with the aid of a facilitator and a set of guiding questions. Rapporteurs were present during the plenary session as well as breakout sessions and in particular were tasked with taking notes during discussions and reporting back to the assembled participants a brief summary of points discussed. The presentations and breakout sessions were divided into five topic areas: 'Challenges in Biorisk Management,' 'Risk Assessment and Mitigation Measures,' 'Biorisk Management System Performance,' 'Training,' and 'National Oversight and Regulations.' The topics and questions were chosen by the organizers through consultation with US Government sponsors. The Chattham House Rule on non-attribution was in effect during question and answer periods and breakout session discussions.

Pinard, William J.; Salazar, Carlos A.

2010-11-01

358

Social choice of convex risk measures through Arrovian aggregation of variational preferences  

OpenAIRE

This paper studies collective decision making with regard to convex risk measures: It addresses the question whether there exist nondictatorial aggregation functions of convex risk measures satisfying Arrow-type rationality axioms (weak universality, systematicity, Pareto principle). Herein, convex risk measures are identified with variational preferences on account of the Maccheroni-Marinacci-Rustichini (2006) axiomatisation of variational preference relations and the Föllmer-Schied (2002, ...

Herzberg, Frederik

2010-01-01

359

Aqueduct: a methodology to measure and communicate global water risks  

Science.gov (United States)

The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores and includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. Indicators are selected based on relevance to water users, availability and robustness of global data sources, and expert consultation, and are collected from existing datasets or derived from a Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) based integrated water balance model. Indicators are normalized using a threshold approach, and composite scores are computed using a linear aggregation scheme that allows for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. By providing consistent scores across the globe, the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables rapid comparison across diverse aspects of water risk. Companies can use this information to prioritize actions, investors to leverage financial interest to improve water management, and governments to engage with the private sector to seek solutions for more equitable and sustainable water governance. The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables practical applications of scientific data, helping non-expert audiences better understand and evaluate risks facing water users. This presentation will discuss the methodology used to combine the indicator values into aggregated risk scores and lessons learned from working with diverse audiences in academia, development institutions, and the public and private sectors.

Gassert, Francis; Reig, Paul

2013-04-01

360

Comparison of Measures of Risk for Recidivism in Sexual Offenders  

Science.gov (United States)

Data for both sexual and violent recidivism for the Static-99, Risk Matrix 2000 (RM 2000), Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offense Recidivism (RRASOR), and Static-2002 are reported for 419 released sexual offenders assessed at the Regional Treatment Centre Sexual Offender Treatment Program. Data are analyzed by offender type as well as the group as…

Looman, Jan; Abracen, Jeffrey

2010-01-01

361

Security engineering: Phisical security measures for high-risk personnel  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The design of physical security measures is a specialized technical area that does not fall in the normal skill record and resume of commanders, architects, engineers, and project managers. This document provides guidance to those parties tasked with implementing existing and emerging physical protection system requirements: -    Creation of a single-source reference for the design and construction of physical security measures for high-risk personnel (HRP. -    Promulgation of multi-service standard recommendations and considerations. -    Potential increase of productivity of HRP and reduced temporary housing costs through clarification of considerations, guidance on planning, and provision of design solutions. -    Reduction of facility project costs. -    Better performance of modernized facilities, in terms of force protection, than original facilities. Throughout this process you must ensure: confidentiality, appropriate Public Relations, sustainability, compliance with all industrial guidelines and legal and regulatory requirement, constant review and revision to accommodate new circumstances or threats. Introduction Physical security is an extremely broad topic. It encompasses access control devices such as smart cards, air filtration and fireproofing. It is also heavily reliant on infrastructure. This means that many of the ideal physical security measures may not be economically or physically feasible for existing sites. Many businesses do not have the option of building their own facility from the ground up; thus physical security often must be integrated into an existing structure. This limits the overall set of security measures that can be installed. There is an aspect of physical security that is often overlooked; the humans that interact with it. Humans commit crime for a number of reasons. The document focuses on two building types: the HRP office and the HRP residence. HRP are personnel who are likely to be terrorist or criminal targets based on their grade, assignment, symbolic value, criticality, and threat and vulnerability assessment. Levels of protection The recommendations contained in this criterion are intended to minimize the possibility of HRP casualties in buildings or portions of buildings in which they work and live. These recommendations provide appropriate and implementable measures to establish a level of protection against terrorist attacks where no known threat of terrorist activity currently exists. While complete protection against all potential threats is cost prohibitive, the intent of these recommendations can be achieved through prudent master planning, real estate acquisition, and design and construction practices. Tag number The tag number at the beginning of each physical security measure (recommendation is unique and is intended to be a communication aid when linking the requirement (recommendation to the supporting text or commentary. The three-character tag number uses the following legend. Tag Number First Character -The first character is an abbreviation for the defense zone layer that is most applicable for the countermeasure. “S” is used to represent site or external zone issues. “P” is used to represent the perimeter zone. “G” is used to represent issues relative to the property grounds. “E” is used to represent issues associated with the building exterior of the HRP office or residence. “I” is used to represent issues associated with the building interior. “H” is used to represent issues associated with the safe room or safe haven. Tag Number Second Character - The second character is a sequential number for countermeasures in a given zone - a requirement or a recommendation. This number ensures a unique tag number. Tag Number Third Character- The third character indicates whether the countermeasure is applicable to offices, residences, or both (common. “O” indicates a requirement or recommendation unique to offices. “R” represents a requirement or recommendation to residences. “C” represents a com

Jelena S. Cice

2013-06-01

362

Performance experience with radon mitigation systems  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Both passive and active radon mitigations were installed in four houses with slab-on-grade or combined crawlspace/slab-on-grade basements. Passive mitigation reduced indoor radon by 40 to 80%. Combined passive and active mitigation was necessary for reducing radon levels to below 150 Bq m-3. Active mitigation employed sub vapor-barrier and/or subslab depressurization. The number of subslab mitigation pits needed at each house was determined by diagnostic measurements of permeability and pressure-field extension. Performances of the mitigation systems at three houses were stable over one year. Increasing permeability in the hard-packed clay beneath the slab of one house may result in decreased effectiveness of the subslab depressurization. 2 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

363

The Measure and Control of Enterprise Marketing Risk in the E-business Environment  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In this article, through analyzing the change of enterprise marketing mode and the characters of marketing risk in the e-business environment, we establish the 3D embedded random measure model which suits for the e-business enterprise marketing risk, define the combination rules of the risk index system of this model, establish the theoretical base to measure the marketing risk for e-business enterprises, and analyze the warning and control of enterprise marketing risk under the model.

Lingbing Hu

2009-02-01

364

On the risk criterion and the index of risk  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The development of a means to quantify risk, the determination of a risk criterion, and the establishment of a method to compare risks are three essential components in a probabilistic safety assessment. In this paper, the quantitative definition of risk given by Kaplan and Garrick is converted from a table to a graph to accommodate Farmer's method of constructing a risk criterion. Farmer's criterion is limited to a straight line, but its slope is made a free parameter. The high-frequency small-consequence problem noted by Farmer is solved by using an auxiliary vertical line to exclude scenarios with insignificant consequences. To compare risks associated with various accident scenarios, an index of risk relative to the straight-line risk criterion is proposed and developed. The results allow various accident scenarios to be ranked according to their weighted risks and, in turn, provide a measure of the effectiveness of mitigation

365

The Basel II Accord on Measuring and Managing a Bank's Risks  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The abundance of risk metrics stems from the effort to measure the difference between the expected and actual returns, under a hypothesis of normality. Under the assumption of risk aversion, investors are likely to quantify risk using metrics which measure returns lower than the expected average. These include the semi-variance of returns smaller than the average, the risk of loss – a return under a chosen level, usually 0%, and value-at-risk, for the greatest losses, with a probability of less than 1-5% in a given period of time. The Basel II accord improves on the way risks are measured, by allowing banks greater flexibility. There is an increase in the complexity of measuring credit risks, the market risks measurement methods remain the same, and the measurement of operational risk is introduced for the first time. The most advanced (and widely-used risk metrics are based on VaR. However, it must be noted that VaR calculations are statistical, and therefore unlikely to forecast extraordinary events. So the quality of a VaR calculation must be checked using back-testing, and if the VaR value fails in a percentage of 1-5% of the cases, then the premises of the model must be changed.

Ion Stancu

2007-11-01

366

Ethical aspects of the mitigation obstruction argument against climate engineering research.  

Science.gov (United States)

Many commentators fear that climate engineering research might lead policy-makers to reduce mitigation efforts. Most of the literature on this so-called 'moral hazard' problem focuses on the prediction that climate engineering research would reduce mitigation efforts. This paper focuses on a related ethical question: Why would it be a bad thing if climate engineering research obstructed mitigation? If climate engineering promises to be effective enough, it might justify some reduction in mitigation. Climate policy portfolios involving sufficiently large or poorly planned reductions in mitigation, however, could lead to an outcome that would be worse than the portfolio that would be chosen in the absence of further climate engineering research. This paper applies three ethical perspectives to describe the kinds of portfolios that would be worse than that 'baseline portfolio'. The literature on climate engineering identifies various mechanisms that might cause policy-makers to choose these inferior portfolios, but it is difficult to know in advance whether the existence of these mechanisms means that climate engineering research really would lead to a worse outcome. In the light of that uncertainty, a precautionary approach suggests that researchers should take measures to reduce the risk of mitigation obstruction. Several such measures are suggested. PMID:25404676

Morrow, David R

2014-12-28

367

3(omega) Damage: Growth Mitigation  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The design of high power UV laser systems is limited to a large extent by the laser-initiated damage performance of transmissive fused silica optical components. The 3{omega} (i.e., the third harmonic of the primary laser frequency) damage growth mitigation LDRD effort focused on understanding and reducing the rapid growth of laser-initiated surface damage on fused silica optics. Laser-initiated damage can be discussed in terms of two key issues: damage initiated at some type of precursor and rapid damage growth of the damage due to subsequent laser pulses. The objective of the LDRD effort has been the elucidation of laser-induced damage processes in order to quantify and potentially reduce the risk of damage to fused silica surfaces. The emphasis of the first two years of this effort was the characterization and reduction of damage initiation. In spite of significant reductions in the density of damage sites on polished surfaces, statistically some amount of damage initiation should always be expected. The early effort therefore emphasized the development of testing techniques that quantified the statistical nature of damage initiation on optical surfaces. This work led to the development of an optics lifetime modeling strategy that has been adopted by the NIF project to address damage-risk issues. During FY99 interest shifted to the damage growth issue which was the focus of the final year of this project. The impact of the remaining damage sites on laser performance can be minimized if the damage sites did not continue to grow following subsequent illumination. The objectives of the final year of the LDRD effort were to apply a suite of state-of-the-art characterization tools to elucidate the nature of the initiated damage sites, and to identify a method that effectively mitigates further damage growth. Our specific goal is to understand the cause for the rapid growth of damage sites so that we can develop and apply an effective means to mitigate it. The prevailing hypothesis for the growth mechanism of laser-initiated damage involves a synergism of some means for absorption of 3{omega} light at the damage site and local field enhancement due to cracks. A proposed mechanism for damage growth involves an initial damage at a precursor resulting in the transformation of basically non-absorbing SiO{sub 2} to form an absorbing layer of d-SiOx. In this context d-SiOx implies SiO{sub 2} modified in terms of either the formation of other stoichiometries (eg., SiO, Si, or more generally SiOx with 0