WorldWideScience
1

Risk mitigation measures: An important aspect of the environmental risk assessment of pharmaceuticals  

OpenAIRE

Within EU marketing authorization procedures of human and veterinary medicinal products (HMP and VMP), an environmental risk assessment (ERA) has to be performed. In the event that an unacceptable environmental risk is identified, risk mitigation measures (RMM) shall be applied in order to reduce environmental exposure to the pharmaceutical. Within the authorization procedures of HMP, no RMM have been applied so far, except for specific precautions for the disposal of the unused medicinal pro...

Markus Liebig; Carolin Floeter; Thorsten Hahn; Wolfgang Koch; Andrea Wenzel; Jörg Römbke

2014-01-01

2

Risk Mitigation Measures: An Important Aspect of the Environmental Risk Assessment of Pharmaceuticals  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Within EU marketing authorization procedures of human and veterinary medicinal products (HMP and VMP, an environmental risk assessment (ERA has to be performed. In the event that an unacceptable environmental risk is identified, risk mitigation measures (RMM shall be applied in order to reduce environmental exposure to the pharmaceutical. Within the authorization procedures of HMP, no RMM have been applied so far, except for specific precautions for the disposal of the unused medicinal product or waste materials. For VMP, a limited number of RMM do exist. The aim of this study was to develop consistent and efficient RMM. Therefore, existing RMM were compiled from a summary of product characteristics of authorized pharmaceuticals, and new RMM were developed and evaluated. Based on the results, appropriate RMM were applied within the authorization procedures of medicinal products. For HMP, except for the existing precautions for disposal, no further reasonable measures could be developed. For VMP, two specific precautions for disposal and 17 specific precautions for use in animals were proposed as RMM.

Markus Liebig

2014-01-01

3

The design of risk mitigation measures for several large tailings dams in Ontario  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vale Inco recently commissioned a risk assessment study on the main dams in the Sudbury central area. The risk assessment included a desktop review of the historical record, subsurface investigations, flood routing analysis, stability analysis and development of a failure modes and effects analyses table for the dams under review. This paper presented an overview of the design of risk mitigation measures at four of the perimeter dams located near the town of Copper Cliff. The present paper comprised a review of the existing stability of the project dams, which indicated several significant issues, including potential for overtopping in the event of a PMF IDF, previous piping related issues and seismic stability issues. remedial measures were designed to reduce risks associated with the identified issues and generally comprised the construction of a new spillway within the P area and stabilising buttresses for the P area project dams.

Clelland, Lawrence; Noack, Greg; Viles, Keith [Klohn Crippen Berger Ltd, Subbury, (Canada); Donato, Randy; Ross, Trevor [Vale, Sudbury, (Canada)

2010-07-01

4

Sensitivity measures for optimal mitigation of risk and reduction of model uncertainty  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper presents a new set of reliability sensitivity measures. The purpose is to identify the optimal manner in which to mitigate risk to civil infrastructure, and reduce model uncertainty in order to improve risk estimates. Three measures are presented. One identifies the infrastructure components that should be prioritized for retrofit. Another measure identifies the infrastructure that should be prioritized for more refined modeling. The third measure identifies the models that should be prioritized in research to improve models, for example by gathering new data. The developments are presented in the context of a region with 622 buildings that are subjected to seismicity from several sources. A comprehensive seismic risk analysis of this region is conducted, with over 300 random variables, 30 model types, and 4000 model instances. All models are probabilistic and emphasis is placed on the explicit characterization of epistemic uncertainty. For the considered region, the buildings that should first be retrofitted are found to be pre-code unreinforced masonry buildings. Conversely, concrete shear wall buildings rank highest on the list of buildings that should be subjected to more detailed modeling. The ground shaking intensity model for shallow crustal earthquakes and the concrete shear wall structural response model rank highest on the list of models that should be prioritized by research to improve engineering analysis models. -- Highlights: • Three new sensitivity measures are presented to guide the allocation of resources. • The first measure prioritizes infrastructure for retrofit in order to mitigate risk. • The second measure prioritizes probabilistic models for more detailed modeling. • The third measure prioritizes model types for improvement by data gathering. • The measures are showcased by a regional seismic risk analysis of 622 buildings

5

A methodological frame for assessing benzene induced leukemia risk mitigation due to policy measures  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The study relies on the development of a methodology for assessing the determinants that comprise the overall leukemia risk due to benzene exposure and how these are affected by outdoor and indoor air quality regulation. An integrated modeling environment was constructed comprising traffic emissions, dispersion models, human exposure models and a coupled internal dose/biology-based dose–response risk assessment model, in order to assess the benzene imposed leukemia risk, as much as the impact of traffic fleet renewal and smoking banning to these levels. Regarding traffic fleet renewal, several “what if” scenarios were tested. The detailed full-chain methodology was applied in a South-Eastern European urban setting in Greece and a limited version of the methodology in Helsinki. Non-smoking population runs an average risk equal to 4.1 · 10?5 compared to 23.4 · 10?5 for smokers. The estimated lifetime risk for the examined occupational groups was higher than the one estimated for the general public by 10–20%. Active smoking constitutes a dominant parameter for benzene-attributable leukemia risk, much stronger than any related activity, occupational or not. From the assessment of mitigation policies it was found that the associated leukemia risk in the optimum traffic fleet scenario could be reduced by up to 85% for non-smokers and up to 8% for smokers. On the contrary, smoking banning provided smaller gains for (7% for non-smokers, 1% for smokers), while for Helsinki, smoking policies were found to be more efficient than traffic fleet renewal. The methodology proposed above provides a general framework for assessing aggregated exposure and the consequent leukemia risk from benzene (incorporating mechanistic data), capturing exposure and internal dosimetry dynamics, translating changes in exposure determinants to actual changes in population risk, providing a valuable tool for risk management evaluation and consequently to policy support. - Highlights: ? A comprehensive exposure analysis is greatly facilitated by the thorough use of measurement data and modeling tools. ? Incorporation of internal dose metrics contributes to significant refinement of exposure assessment. ? Similar community policies have completely different effect with respect to different countries/cities

6

Influence of regulatory uncertainty on capacity investments – Are investments in new technologies a risk mitigation measure?  

OpenAIRE

Understanding the investment decisions of power companies is vital for a regulator as particularly deficient investments in generation capacity could jeopardize the market in the long run. Considering potential risks that could hamper investments, the paper focuses on regulatory uncertainty and firms’ behavior to mitigate risk. The question of how uncertainty influences investment decisions has been explained by a number of researchers. In the specific case of regulatory uncertainty it is ...

Schwark, Bastian

2009-01-01

7

Communicating risk and promoting disease mitigation measures in epidemics and emerging disease settings  

Science.gov (United States)

Objective This review aims to identify and assess evidence on interventions to communicate risk and promote disease mitigation measures in epidemics and emerging disease outbreak settings. The study focuses on data that are relevant to low and middle-income country (LMIC) settings. Methods We conducted a comprehensive literature search using five major electronic databases (Pubmed Medline, Biomed Central, EMBASE, Science of Citation Index, and Cochrane Library) and other sources to identify relevant studies published from January 2002 to July 2013. The review was guided by the socio-ecological model/perspective of public health and the ideation theory and focused on interventions at the community, healthcare, and multi-sectoral settings, which also reflect key intervention levels of the Ottawa Charter for Health Promotion. Eligible quantitative studies were selected according to specific study criteria and assessed using the Critical Appraisal Skills Program (CASP) framework. Conversely, qualitative studies, reviews, case studies, and editorials were not included. Studies were selected by two independent reviewers. Results Twenty-nine relevant studies from 16 countries were included. Most studies focused on a single intervention or intervention level, rather than multi-sectoral interventions. The majority of the evidence relates to programs aimed at behavioral and social results (or relevant intermediate steps) within a specific population group. Two studies included implications for improvements in health service delivery, two studies examined the intervention’s impact on health systems-related outcomes, and three had also implications for environmental health outcomes. Cost- and health equity-related implications for select evidence were also discussed. Conclusions The paucity of well-designed quantitative evaluations of interventions to communicate health risk and promote disease control measures in LMICs does not allow for any definitive conclusions. Yet, the review identified several promising interventions and areas for future investigation. Among them, community-based and participatory interventions seemed to be central within epidemic and emerging disease settings, particularly in low-resource settings. Yet, evidence on their effectiveness is not conclusive and needs to be explored by future studies. Other promising areas for future investigation include multi-component and multi-sectoral approaches to intervention design. Major research gaps referred to any evaluation of the impact of these kinds of interventions on health policy adoption and/or implementation, and social determinants of health. Research on cost-effectiveness also needs to be strengthened. This review identified several research gaps and questions, and discusses potential future directions for increasing capacity for future and more rigorous assessments. PMID:24649867

Schiavo, Renata; Leung, May May; Brown, Mason

2014-01-01

8

A methodological frame for assessing benzene induced leukemia risk mitigation due to policy measures.  

Science.gov (United States)

The study relies on the development of a methodology for assessing the determinants that comprise the overall leukemia risk due to benzene exposure and how these are affected by outdoor and indoor air quality regulation. An integrated modeling environment was constructed comprising traffic emissions, dispersion models, human exposure models and a coupled internal dose/biology-based dose-response risk assessment model, in order to assess the benzene imposed leukemia risk, as much as the impact of traffic fleet renewal and smoking banning to these levels. Regarding traffic fleet renewal, several "what if" scenarios were tested. The detailed full-chain methodology was applied in a South-Eastern European urban setting in Greece and a limited version of the methodology in Helsinki. Non-smoking population runs an average risk equal to 4.1·10(-5) compared to 23.4·10(-5) for smokers. The estimated lifetime risk for the examined occupational groups was higher than the one estimated for the general public by 10-20%. Active smoking constitutes a dominant parameter for benzene-attributable leukemia risk, much stronger than any related activity, occupational or not. From the assessment of mitigation policies it was found that the associated leukemia risk in the optimum traffic fleet scenario could be reduced by up to 85% for non-smokers and up to 8% for smokers. On the contrary, smoking banning provided smaller gains for (7% for non-smokers, 1% for smokers), while for Helsinki, smoking policies were found to be more efficient than traffic fleet renewal. The methodology proposed above provides a general framework for assessing aggregated exposure and the consequent leukemia risk from benzene (incorporating mechanistic data), capturing exposure and internal dosimetry dynamics, translating changes in exposure determinants to actual changes in population risk, providing a valuable tool for risk management evaluation and consequently to policy support. PMID:23220388

Karakitsios, Spyros P; Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis ?; Gotti, Alberto; Kassomenos, Pavlos A; Pilidis, Georgios A

2013-01-15

9

Landslides risk mitigation along lifelines  

Science.gov (United States)

The paper describes an integrated, innovative and efficient solution to manage risk issues associated to landslides interfering with infrastructures. The research project was submitted for financial support in the framework of the Multi -regional Operational Programme 2007-13: Research and Competitiveness funded by the Ministry of Research (MIUR) and co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund. The project is aimed to developing and demonstrating an integrated system of monitoring, early warning and mitigation of landslides risk. The final goal is to timely identify potentially dangerous landslides, and to activate all needed impact mitigation measures, including the information delivery. The essential components of the system include monitoring arrays, telecommunication networks and scenario simulation models, assisted by a data acquisition and processing centre, and a traffic control centres. Upon integration, the system will be experimentally validated and demonstrated over ca. 200 km of three highway sections, crossing the regions of Campania, Basilicata, Calabria and Sicily. Progress in the state of art is represented by the developments in the field of environmental monitoring and in the mathematical modeling of landslides and by the development of services for traffic management. The approach to the problem corresponds to a "systemic logics" where each developed component foresees different interchangeable technological solutions to maximize the operational flexibility. The final system may be configured as a simple to complex structure, including different configurations to deal with different scenarios. Specifically, six different monitoring systems will be realized: three "point" systems, made up of a network of locally measuring sensors, and three "area" systems to remotely measure the displacements of large areas. Each network will be fully integrated and connected to a unique data transmission system. Standardized and shared procedures for the identification of risk scenarios will be developed, concerning the surveys to be carried out, the procedures for each type of on-site testing and guidelines and dynamic templates for presentations of results, such as highway risk maps e.g. The setting up of data acquisition and processing centre and traffic control centre are the core of the integrated system. The DAC (data acquisition center, newly designed) will acquire and process data varying in intensity, dimensions, characteristics and information content. The Traffic Control Center (TCC) is meant to integrate the scientific and the management aspects of hydrological risk monitoring and early warning. The overall system is expected to benefit of the development of new, advanced mathematical models on landslide triggers and propagation. Triggering models will be empirical or hydrological, represented by simple empirical relationships, obtained by linking the antecedent rainfall and the landslide time occurrence, and complete models identified through more complex expressions that take into account different components as the specific site conditions, the mechanical, hydraulic and physical properties of soils and slopes, the local seepage conditions and their contribution to soil strength. The industrial partners of the University of Calabria are Autostrade Tech, Strago and TD Group, with the Universities of Firenze and Catania acting research Partners.

Capparelli, G.; Versace, P.; Artese, G.; Costanzo, S.; Corsonello, P.; Di Massa, G.; Mendicino, G.; Maletta, D.; Leone, S.; Muto, F.; Senatore, A.; Troncone, A.; Conte, E.; Galletta, D.

2012-04-01

10

Adaptation, mitigation and risk-taking in climate policy  

OpenAIRE

The future consequences of climate change are highly uncertain. Today, the exact size of possible future damages are widely unknown. Governments try to cope with these risks by investing in mitigation and adaptation measures. Mitigation aims at a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions whereas adaptation reduces the follow-up costs of climate change. In contrast to the existing literature, we explicitly model the decision of risk-averse governments on mitigation and adaptation policies. Further...

Auerswald, Heike; Konrad, Kai A.; Thum, Marcel

2011-01-01

11

Urban Policies and Earthquake Risk Mitigation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The paper aims at proposing some considerations about some recent experiences of research carried out on the theme of earthquake risk mitigation and combining policies and actions of mitigation with urban development strategies. The objective was to go beyond the classical methodological approach aiming at defining a 'technical' evaluation of the earthquake risk through a procedure which can correlate the three 'components' of danger, exposure and vulnerability. These researches experiment, in terms of methodology and application, with a new category of interpretation and strategy: the so-called Struttura Urbana Minima (Minimum urban structure).Actually, the introduction of the Struttura Urbana Minima establishes a different approach towards the theme of safety in the field of earthquake risk, since it leads to a wider viewpoint, combining the building aspect of the issue with the purely urban one, involving not only town planning, but also social and managerial implications.In this sense the constituent logic of these researches is strengthened by two fundamental issues:- The social awareness of earthquake;- The inclusion of mitigation policies in the ordinary strategies for town and territory management. Three main aspects of the first point, that is of the 'social awareness of earthquake', characterize this issue and demand to be considered within a prevention policy:- The central role of the risk as a social production,- The central role of the local community conhe central role of the local community consent,- The central role of the local community capability to planTherefore, consent, considered not only as acceptance, but above all as participation in the elaboration and implementation of choices, plays a crucial role in the wider issue of prevention policies.As far as the second point is concerned, the inclusion of preventive mitigation policies in ordinary strategies for the town and territory management demands the identification of criteria of choice and priorities of intervention and, as a consequence, the opportunity to promote an approach to the theme of mitigation policies realized through strategic principles and systemic logics able to shift the problem from the building to the town. The critical aspects of this theme are tied to three main issues:- The sharing of the way of interpreting town planning,- The integration of multiple objectives in one intervention tool,- The measures which can be adopted for an effective prevention policy.The above-mentioned elements have inspired these researches experimented on Calabrian towns.In particular, in this paper the experience carried out on Reggio Calabria is proposed. Its cultural roots derive from the principles and criteria experimented in small Calabrian towns, but it modifies them according to the complexity of the urban settlement, introducing also some experimental concepts and methodological approaches

12

Risk measures  

OpenAIRE

The present review of (financial) risk measures, prepared for the Encyclopaedia of Actuarial Science, first distinguishes two conceptions of risk. Risk of the first kind conceives risk as the magnitude of (one- or two-sided) deviations from a target, whereas risk of the second kind conceives risk as necessary capital or necessary premium, respectively. Some important axiomatic characterizations of risk measures are reviewed, including a characterization of a correspondence between risk measur...

Albrecht, Peter

2006-01-01

13

Information security risk assessment, aggregation, and mitigation  

OpenAIRE

As part of their compliance process with the Basel 2 operational risk management requirements, banks must define how they deal with information security risk management. In this paper we describe work in progress on a new quantitative model to assess and aggregate information security risks that is currently under development for deployment. We show how to find a risk mitigation strategy that is optimal with respect to the model used and the available budget.

Voss, T.; Lenstra, Arjen K.

2004-01-01

14

Coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures of hydro-meteorological risks: the importance of establishing a link between emergency management and spatial planning  

Science.gov (United States)

The management of natural hazards involves, as generally known, the four stages of the risk management cycle: Prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. Accordingly, the mitigation of disasters can be performed in terms of short-term and long-term purposes. Whereas emergency management or civil protection helps to strengthen a community's capacity to be better prepared for natural hazards and to better respond in case a disaster strikes, thus addressing the short-term perspective, spatial planning serves long-term planning goals and can therefore implement long-term prevention measures. A purposefully applied risk mitigation strategy requires coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures and thus an effective coordination of emergency management and spatial planning. Several actors are involved in risk management and should consequently be linked throughout the whole risk management cycle. However, these actors, partly because of a historically fragmented administrative system, are hardly connected to each other, with spatial planning only having a negligible role compared to other actors1, a problem to which Young (2002) referred to as the "problem of interplay". In contrast, information transfer and decision-taking happen at the same time and are not coordinated among different actors. This applies to the prevention and preparedness phase as well as to the recovery phase, which basically constitutes the prevention phase for the next disaster2. Since investments in both risk prevention and emergency preparedness and response are considered necessary, a better coordination of the two approaches is required. In this regard, Decision Support Systems (DSS) can be useful in order to provide support in the decision-making aspect of risk management. The research work currently undertaken examines the problem of interplay in the four case study areas of the Marie Curie ITN, CHANGES3. The link between different risk management actors will be explored by means of exploratory questionnaires and interviews with government agencies, local administrations, community and research organizations on each study site. First results provided will address the general role of spatial planning in risk management. Additionally, preliminary observations are made in regard to the coordination of emergency preparedness and long-term spatial planning activities. The observations consider that integration facilitates proactive strategies that aim at preventing disaster occurrence and promote interaction between involved parties. Finally, consideration is given to the potential use of a DSS tool to cover both aspects of spatial planning and emergency management in the risk management cycle.

Prenger-Berninghoff, Kathrin; Cortes, V. Juliette; Aye, Zar Chi; Sprague, Teresa

2013-04-01

15

12 CFR 702.108 - Risk mitigation credit.  

Science.gov (United States)

...mitigation of: (1) Credit risk; or (2) Interest rate risk as demonstrated by economic...case of a FISCU seeking a risk mitigation credit— (1) Before...provide prompt notice of its decision to the appropriate State...

2010-01-01

16

Emerging Radiation Health-Risk Mitigation Technologies  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Past space missions beyond the confines of the Earth's protective magnetic field have been of short duration and protection from the effects of solar particle events was of primary concern. The extension of operational infrastructure beyond low-Earth orbit to enable routine access to more interesting regions of space will require protection from the hazards of the accumulated exposures of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR). There are significant challenges in providing protection from the long-duration exposure to GCR: the human risks to the exposures are highly uncertain and safety requirements places unreasonable demands in supplying sufficient shielding materials in the design. A vigorous approach to future radiation health-risk mitigation requires a triage of techniques (using biological and technical factors) and reduction of the uncertainty in radiation risk models. The present paper discusses the triage of factors for risk mitigation with associated materials issues and engineering design methods

17

A bottom up approach to implementing multi-purpose mitigation measures for reducing flood risk and improving water quality in agricultural catchments  

Science.gov (United States)

A number of studies have suggested that there is evidence that modern land-use management practices have increased surface runoff at the local scale. There is an urgent need for interventions to reduce the risk of flooding whilst also delivering multiple benefits (doing more for less). There are many settlements, which regularly suffer from flooding, which would benefit from upstream mitigation measures. Interventions at the source of runoff generation can have a positive impact on the flood hydrograph downstream. An integrated approach to managing runoff can also have multiple benefits on pollution and ecology, which could lead to beneficial impacts at the catchment scale. Belford, a small community in Northumberland, UK has suffered from an increased number of flood events over the past ten years. There is currently support within the English and Welsh Environment Agency for sustainable flood management solutions such as storage ponds, wetlands, beaver dams and willow riparian features which are being trialled at Belford. These runoff attenuation features (RAFs) also have benefits to water quality, capture sediment and create new ecological zones. Although the process by which numerous RAFs were deployed in Belford proved initially difficult to achieve within the existing regulatory framework, an efficient uptake process is now supported by local regulators including several branches of the Environment Agency. The Belford runoff management framework provides a step by step guide to implementing mitigation measures in the Belford burn catchment and could be easily applied to other catchments at a similar scale. The approach is based on implementing mitigation measures through engaging with catchment stakeholders and using solid field science and management protocols.

Wilkinson, M. E.; Quinn, P. F.; Jonczyk, J.; Burke, S.; Nicholson, A.; Barber, N.; Owen, G.; Palmer, M.

2012-04-01

18

Mitigation of foreign Direct investment risk and hedging  

OpenAIRE

Instruments of risk mitigation play an important role in managing country risk within the foreign direct investment (FDI) decision. Our study assesses country risk by state-dependent preferences and introduces futures contracts as a tool of risk mitigation. We show that country risk assessments related to foreign direct investment do not matter if the multinational firm enters currency futures markets. Besides currency risk, multinationals cross-hedge country risk via the derivatives market. ...

Wahl, Jack E.; Broll, Udo

2009-01-01

19

Disease management mitigates risk of pathogen transmission from maricultured salmonids  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Open marine net pens facilitate virus and sea lice transfer, occasionally leading to infections and outbreaks of disease in farmed salmon. A review of 3 salmon pathogens (infectious salmon anaemia virus [ISAV], salmon alphavirus [SAV] and the salmon louse Lepeophtheirus salmonis) shows that increased risk of exposure to neighbouring farms is inversely related to distance from and directly related to biomass at the source of infection. Epidemiological techniques integrating data from oceanography, diagnostics and pathogen shedding rates and viability contribute to improved understanding of pathogen transmission pathways among farms and permit the designation of areas of risk associated with sources of infection. Occupation of an area of risk may increase the likelihood of exposure, infection and disease among susceptible fish. Disease mitigation in mariculture occurs at 2 scales: area-based (coordinated stocking, harvesting and fallowing) and farm-based (vaccination, early pathogen detection, veterinary prescribed treatments and depopulation or early harvest in the event of viral disease). Collectively, implementation of mitigation measures results in virus disease outbreaks of shorter duration with lower mortality and therefore reduces the likelihood of pathogen transmission. In contrast, the mitigation of sea lice transmission is less likely to be effective in some areas due to the loss of parasite sensitivity to therapeutants and to dissemination of larval lice when parasites occur below management thresholds. For wild populations, risk of pathogen spillback is estimated from farm-based epidemiological data; however, validation, particularly for ISAV and SAV, is required using direct surveillance.

Jones, Simon R. M.; Bruno, David W.

2015-01-01

20

Mitigating Systemic Risks in Future Networks  

CERN Document Server

This paper elaborates about the potential risk of systemic instabilities in future networks and proposes a methodology to mitigate it. The starting concept is modeling the network as a complex environment (e.g. ecosystem) of resources and associated functional controllers in a continuous and dynamic game of cooperation - competition. Methodology foresees defining and associating utility functions to these controllers and elaborating a global utility function (as a function of the controllers' utility functions) for the overall network. It is conjectured that the optimization of the global utility function ensures network stability and security evaluations. Paper concludes arguing that self-governance (with limited human intervention) is possible provided that proper local, global control rules are coded into these utility functions optimization processes.

Manzalini, Antonio

2012-01-01

21

Risk measuring under liquidity risk  

OpenAIRE

We present a general framework for measuring the liquidity risk. The theoretical framework defines a class of risk measures that incorporate the liquidity risk into the standard risk measures. We consider a one-period risk measurement model. The liquidity risk is defined as the risk that a given security or a portfolio of securities cannot be easily sold or bought by the financial institutions without causing significant changes in prices. The new risk measures present some ...

Allaj, Erindi

2014-01-01

22

Risk perception and volcanic hazard mitigation: Individual and social perspectives  

Science.gov (United States)

This paper discusses how people's interpretation of their experience of volcanic hazards and public volcanic hazard education programs influences their risk perception and whether or not they adopt measures that can mitigate their risk. Drawing on four studies of volcanic risk perception and preparedness, the paper first examines why experiencing volcanic hazards need not necessarily motivate people to prepare for future volcanic crises. This work introduces how effective risk communication requires communities and civic agencies to play complementary roles in the risk management process. Next, the findings of a study evaluating the effectiveness of a public volcanic hazard education program introduce the important role that social interaction amongst community members plays in risk management. Building on the conclusions of these studies, a model that depicts preparing as a social process is developed and tested. The model predicts that it is the quality of the relationships between people, communities and civic agencies that determines whether people adopt measures that can reduce their risk from volcanic hazard consequences. The implications of the model for conceptualizing and delivering volcanic hazard public education programs in ways that accommodate these relationships is discussed.

Paton, Douglas; Smith, Leigh; Daly, Michele; Johnston, David

2008-05-01

23

A simplified quasi-2d model of the Po River for the identification of large-scale flood-risk mitigation measures  

Science.gov (United States)

The Flood Directive 2007/60/EC (European Commission, 2007) promotes a paradigm shift from engineering defences to flood-risk mitigation and management strategies. The actual implementation of the Directive necessarily implies the development of reliable procedures for assessing the flood-risk associated with flood prone areas. These procedures can then be adopted by Institutions and public bodies in charge of formulating robust flood risk management strategies for large European rivers for identifying optimal policies for a given area. Optimal policies need to be identified at catchment scale through a holistic approach, and this applies also to large European rivers. Our study focuses on the middle-lower reach of the River Po (~350 km), the longest Italian river and the largest in terms of streamflow. We show a large-scale application of a quasi two-dimensional (quasi-2D) model to support the identification of the optimal management strategy of an extreme flood event (recurrence interval ~500 years) by means of controlled flooding (flooding of portions of the flood-prone area located outside the main embankments through ad-hoc lateral structures) for a flood-prone area of ~6,1x103 square kilometres. Different flooding scenarios associated with several possible geometric configurations of the system of lateral structures are compared in terms of flood losses, characterized through the analysis of CORINE land cover data relative to the period 1990-2006. The results of the study show how a simplified quasi-2D model may be effectively used to: (1) provide useful indications on the flood-risk associated with a large flood prone area; (2) support the identification of optimal flood-risk mitigation strategies and (3) assess the impact of recent land-use dynamics (i.e. population-growth, changes agricultural practices, etc.) on flood-risk.

Domeneghetti, A.; Castellarin, A.; Brath, A.; Colombo, A.

2012-04-01

24

Phishing Techniques and Mitigating the Associated Security Risks  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Organizations invest heavily in technicalcontrols for their Information Assurance (IA infrastructure.These technical controls mitigate and reduce the risk of damage caused by outsider attacks. Mostorganizations rely on training to mitigate and reduce risk of non-technical attacks such as socialengineering. Organizations lump IA training into small modules that personnel typically rush throughbecause the training programs lack enough depth and creativity to keep a trainee engaged. The key toretaining knowledge is making the information memorable. This paper describes common and emergingattack vectors and how to lower and mitigate the associated risks.

Marc A. Rader

2013-07-01

25

Influence of behavioral biases on the assessment of multi-hazard risks and the implementation of multi-hazard risks mitigation measures: case study of multi-hazard cyclone shelters in Tamil Nadu, India  

Science.gov (United States)

In December 2004, a multiple hazards event devastated the Tamil Nadu province of India. The Sumatra -Andaman earthquake with a magnitude of Mw=9.1-9.3 caused the Indian Ocean tsunami with wave heights up to 30 m, and flooding that reached up to two kilometers inland in some locations. More than 7,790 persons were killed in the province of Tamil Nadu, with 206 in its capital Chennai. The time lag between the earthquake and the tsunami's arrival in India was over an hour, therefore, if a suitable early warning system existed, a proper means of communicating the warning and shelters existing for people would exist, than while this would not have prevented the destruction of infrastructure, several thousands of human lives would have been saved. India has over forty years of experience in the construction of cyclone shelters. With additional efforts and investment, these shelters could be adapted to other types of hazards such as tsunamis and flooding, as well as the construction of new multi-hazard cyclone shelters (MPCS). It would therefore be possible to mitigate one hazard such as cyclones by the construction of a network of shelters while at the same time adapting these shelters to also deal with, for example, tsunamis, with some additional investment. In this historical case, the failure to consider multiple hazards caused significant human losses. The current paper investigates the patterns of the national decision-making process with regards to multiple hazards mitigation measures and how the presence of behavioral and cognitive biases influenced the perceptions of the probabilities of multiple hazards and the choices made for their mitigation by the national decision-makers. Our methodology was based on the analysis of existing reports from national and international organizations as well as available scientific literature on behavioral economics and natural hazards. The results identified several biases in the national decision-making process when the construction of cyclone shelters was being undertaken. The availability heuristics caused a perception of low probability of tsunami following an earthquake, as the last large similar event happened over a hundred years ago. Another led to a situation when decisions were taken on the basis of experience and not statistical evidence, namely, experience showed that the so-called "Ring of Fire" generates underground earthquakes and tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean. This knowledge made decision-makers to neglect the numerical estimations about probability of underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean even though seismologists were warning about probability of a large underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean. The bounded rationality bias led to misperception of signals from the early warning center in the Pacific Ocean. The resulting limited concern resulted in risk mitigation measures that considered cyclone risks, but much less about tsunami. Under loss aversion considerations, the decision-makers perceived the losses connected with the necessary additional investment as being greater than benefits from mitigating a less probable hazard.

Komendantova, Nadejda; Patt, Anthony

2013-04-01

26

Industrial Risk Communication and Conflict Mitigation Strategies. Industrial Risk Communication and Conflict Mitigation Strategies.  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Lombardy is one of the most densely populated and industrialized regions in Europe, where nearly 280 Seveso sites are located. The issue of risk communication, as set by the European Seveso Directive is therefore of high relevance in this region. Nevertheless, the Lombardy Region Authorities consider that the implementation of the Directive’s provisions is too weak. Therefore, the Lombardy Region financed an exploratory research in November 2009 and all the research activities ended in February 2011. (Éupolis Lombardia 2011. The research was conducted in order to estimate the existing gaps in risk communication, the subsequent conflicts and to evaluate how to improve the participation of the population in the emergency preparedness activities. The main goal of the project was to improve the communication of risk to the population exposed to industrial risks, hence to mitigate the related social conflict on the basis of an institutional learning process involving governmental bodies industrial organizations and the population. The project was supported by a multidisciplinary research group, which investigated the following aspects:- the regional activities regarding the risk communication at local level;- the nature and status of the main stakeholders groups’ perception of the industrial risks and the existing conflicts, collected through interviews and groups’ discussions;- the analysis of the gaps and ways of improvement related to an effective strategy of communication between industry, population and emergency services. A forum involving all the institutional stakeholders was set to discuss this issue.The paper reports the main results of the research and illustrates the potential strategies to improve the risk communication and the population participation and preparedness for the Lombardy Region. The results showed that the level of risk perception of the population in Lombardy is still too low to define a program of communication without having considered in more detail the mode of involvement of the population. In a context characterized by a distorted perception of risk, the low risk perception could be a sensitive issue that may impend the start of the communication process because it could generate anxiety, alarmism or unnecessary conflicts. Nevertheless, the experiments carried out showed that the population potentially exposed to the industrial risks, if properly involved, shows particular interest in issues related to prevention and self-protection. According to the main results of research project, the involvement of population into a dedicated programme on risk communication should not present a significant concern and the conflict between the industries and the population does not appear to be a particular obstacle to risk communication. On the contrary it was shown that collaboration could be beneficial for all the stakeholders while the most significant limitation to this process, is the low public perception of the problem.Lombardy is one of the most densely populated and industrialized regions in Europe, where nearly 280 Seveso sites are located. The issue of risk communication, as set by the European Seveso Directive is therefore of high relevance in this region. Nevertheless, the Lombardy Region Authorities consider that the implementation of the Directive’s provisions is too weak. Therefore, the Lombardy Region financed an exploratory research in November 2009 and all the research activities ended in February 2011. (Éupolis Lombardia 2011. The research was conducted in order to estimate the existing gaps in risk communication, the subsequent conflicts and to evaluate how to improve the participation of the population in the emergency preparedness activities. The main goal of the project was to improve the communication of risk to the population exposed to industrial risks, hence to mitigate the related social conflict on the basis of an institutional learning process involving governmental bodies industrial organizations and the population. The project was supported

Carmelo Di Mauro

2012-01-01

27

Phishing Techniques and Mitigating the Associated Security Risks  

OpenAIRE

Organizations invest heavily in technicalcontrols for their Information Assurance (IA) infrastructure.These technical controls mitigate and reduce the risk of damage caused by outsider attacks. Mostorganizations rely on training to mitigate and reduce risk of non-technical attacks such as socialengineering. Organizations lump IA training into small modules that personnel typically rush throughbecause the training programs lack enough depth and creativity to keep a trainee engaged. The key tor...

Rader, Marc A.; Rahman, Syed M.

2013-01-01

28

Efficiency of different radon mitigation measures  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In particular high radon areas in Germany and Austria, the radon concentrations indoors reach maximum values of approximately 100 kBq/m3. In these regions the only important radon source is the soil which either shows a very high uranium content or makes a fast radon transport possible. The feasibility and the effectiveness of different radon mitigation measures in some of the highest exposed houses were tested. The determinations of radon concentrations were carried out by various types of measuring systems such as charcoal or alpha track dosimeters. The radon exhalation rates, an important factor for radon mitigation, were measured directly by electrostatic deposition of Polonium-218 onto a detector and subsequent alpha spectroscopy. Three general reconstruction measures against radon entry into houses could be proposed, the increase of indoor ventilation, the sealing of the building against the soil and different types of pressure variation. For each house an individual mitigation plan has to be set up including a decision for a particular measure or a combination of different methods. (4 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.)

29

Public perception of flood risks, flood forecasting and mitigation  

OpenAIRE

A multidisciplinary and integrated approach to the flood mitigation decision making process should provide the best response of society in a flood hazard situation including preparation works and post hazard mitigation. In Slovenia, there is a great lack of data on social aspects and public response to flood mitigation measures and information management. In this paper, two studies of flood perception in the Slovenian town Celje are represented. During its history, Celje was often exposed to ...

Brilly, M.; Polic, M.

2005-01-01

30

Transport and greenhouse gas emissions : Mitigation measures  

OpenAIRE

This paper presents a comparative analysis of transportation-driven GHG emissions as well as a set of mitigation measures in four mid-sized Argentinian cities. Passenger and freight transport were considered as part of the mobility system. Information was gathered through origin/destination surveys and data provided by freight companies with urban destinations. According to the results of a research project, 36.98% of the population in the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires produces 70.12% of ...

Giacobbe, Nora; Ao?n, Laura; Frediani, Julieta C.; Ravella, Olga

2009-01-01

31

A review of risk perceptions and other factors that influence flood mitigation behavior.  

Science.gov (United States)

In flood risk management, a shift can be observed toward more integrated approaches that increasingly address the role of private households in implementing flood damage mitigation measures. This has resulted in a growing number of studies into the supposed positive relationship between individual flood risk perceptions and mitigation behavior. Our literature review shows, however, that, actually, this relationship is hardly observed in empirical studies. Two arguments are provided as an explanation. First, on the basis of protection motivation theory, a theoretical framework is discussed suggesting that individuals' high-risk perceptions need to be accompanied by coping appraisal to result in a protective response. Second, it is pointed out that possible feedback from already-adopted mitigation measures on risk perceptions has hardly been considered by current studies. In addition, we also provide a review of factors that drive precautionary behavior other than risk perceptions. It is found that factors such as coping appraisal are consistently related to mitigation behavior. We conclude, therefore, that the current focus on risk perceptions as a means to explain and promote private flood mitigation behavior is not supported on either theoretical or empirical grounds. PMID:22394258

Bubeck, P; Botzen, W J W; Aerts, J C J H

2012-09-01

32

Radon measurement and mitigation activity in Finland  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Radon prevention, measurement and mitigation activities have been increasing in Finland during the 2000's. Nowadays, many municipal authorities, especially those located in high-radon areas, require radon prevention measures. This has activated radon measurements. Owners of new houses having radon piping installed under the floor slab are the most active group to measure and reduce the found high-radon values. Their radon awareness is apparently better than on the average, and the existing piping makes it easier and cheaper to reduce the radon levels. Local campaigns involving invitation flyers mailed to the residents have been a cost-effective means to activate measurements of older houses. So far 116 611 dwellings in low-rise residential buildings have been measured. At least 15 % of the 16 860 dwellings found to exceed the reference level of 400 Bq m-3 had their indoor radon level reduced below that. (authors)

33

Severe accident mitigation measures in Swedish nuclear power plants  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Based on the results of the research project FILTRA equipment for filtered atmospheric venting of the reactor containments is being installed at the Barseback twin BWR nuclear power plant in Sweden. For the other ten Swedish nuclear units a program has been initiated for a more general assessment of the risk reductions offered by various mitigating strategies. The purpose of this program is to provide a basis for decisions in 1985 as to which measures, if any, should be implemented to be operable no later than 1989. in 1985 as to which measures, if any, should be implemented to be operable no later than 1989

34

Mitigating the risk of radiation-induced cancers: limitations and paradigms in drug development.  

Science.gov (United States)

The United States radiation medical countermeasures (MCM) programme for radiological and nuclear incidents has been focusing on developing mitigators for the acute radiation syndrome (ARS) and delayed effects of acute radiation exposure (DEARE), and biodosimetry technologies to provide radiation dose assessments for guiding treatment. Because a nuclear accident or terrorist incident could potentially expose a large number of people to low to moderate doses of ionising radiation, and thus increase their excess lifetime cancer risk, there is an interest in developing mitigators for this purpose. This article discusses the current status, issues, and challenges regarding development of mitigators against radiation-induced cancers. The challenges of developing mitigators for ARS include: the long latency between exposure and cancer manifestation, limitations of animal models, potential side effects of the mitigator itself, potential need for long-term use, the complexity of human trials to demonstrate effectiveness, and statistical power constraints for measuring health risks (and reduction of health risks after mitigation) following relatively low radiation doses (<0.75 Gy). Nevertheless, progress in the understanding of the molecular mechanisms resulting in radiation injury, along with parallel progress in dose assessment technologies, make this an opportune, if not critical, time to invest in research strategies that result in the development of agents to lower the risk of radiation-induced cancers for populations that survive a significant radiation exposure incident. PMID:24727460

Yoo, Stephen S; Jorgensen, Timothy J; Kennedy, Ann R; Boice, John D; Shapiro, Alla; Hu, Tom C-C; Moyer, Brian R; Grace, Marcy B; Kelloff, Gary J; Fenech, Michael; Prasanna, Pataje G S; Coleman, C Norman

2014-06-01

35

Assessing and Mitigating Risks in Computer Systems  

OpenAIRE

When it comes to non-trivial networked computer systems, bulletproof security is very hard to achieve. Over a system's lifetime new security risks are likely to emerge from e.g. newly discovered classes of vulnerabilities or the arrival of new threat agents. Given the dynamic environment in which computer systems are deployed, continuous evaluations and adjustments are wiser than one-shot e orts for perfection. Security risk management focuses on assessing and treating security...

Netland, Lars-helge

2008-01-01

36

Security Risks: Management and Mitigation in the Software Life Cycle  

Science.gov (United States)

A formal approach to managing and mitigating security risks in the software life cycle is requisite to developing software that has a higher degree of assurance that it is free of security defects which pose risk to the computing environment and the organization. Due to its criticality, security should be integrated as a formal approach in the software life cycle. Both a software security checklist and assessment tools should be incorporated into this life cycle process and integrated with a security risk assessment and mitigation tool. The current research at JPL addresses these areas through the development of a Sotfware Security Assessment Instrument (SSAI) and integrating it with a Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) risk management tool.

Gilliam, David P.

2004-01-01

37

A New Technique for Mitigating Risk on US College Campuses  

Science.gov (United States)

High-profile criminal acts continue to plague United States (US) college campuses despite recent efforts to implement more aggressive risk mitigation practices, such as criminal background checks. Despite these efforts, incidents such as the most recent shootings at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University continue to demonstrate that,…

Hughes, Stephanie; White, Rebecca J.; Hertz, Giles

2008-01-01

38

Planning Tools For Seismic Risk Mitigation. Rules And Applications  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Recently, Italian urban planning research in the field of seismic risk mitigation are renewing. In particular, it promotes strategies that integrate urban rehabilitation and aseismic objectives, and also politicizes that are directed to revitalizes urban systems, coupling physical renewal and socio-economic development.In Italy the first law concerning planning for seismic mitigation dates back 1974, the law n. 64 ''Regulation for buildings with particular rules for the seismic areas'' where the rules for buildings in seismic areas concerning also the local hazard. This law, in fact, forced the municipalities to acquire, during the formation of the plans, a preventive opinion of compatibility between planning conditions and geomorphology conditions of the territory. From this date the conviction that the seismic risk must be considered inside the territorial planning especially in terms of strategies of mitigation has been strengthened.The town planners have started to take an interest in seismic risk in the [80]s when the Irpinia's earthquake took place. The researches developed after this earthquake have established that the principal cause of the collapse of buildings are due to from the wrong location of urban settlements (on slopes or crowns) After Irpinia's earthquake the first researches on seismic risk mitigation, in particular on the aspects related to the hazards and to the urban vulnerability were made

39

Mitigating the safety risks of drugs with a focus on opioids: are risk evaluation and mitigation strategies the answer?  

Science.gov (United States)

Approximately 40% of all newly approved drugs are subject to safety restrictions inclusive of Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS), which were created with the US Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act of 2007. This law expanded Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authority to require REMS of manufacturers but left implementation to the FDA. As a result, the potential access to medications that are effective but not without safety concerns has improved, yet the converse is also true because access may be restricted due to REMS requirements (eg, physician or patient registration). With the July 2012 reauthorization of the Prescription Drug User Fee Act, the FDA was given additional authorities and mandates for enhancing and modernizing the drug safety system-specifically, measuring the effectiveness of REMS as well as standardizing and better integrating REMS into the overall health care system. So, are REMS, which were conceived as a tool to improve medication safety, working? Specifically, are REMS achieving their intended outcomes (mitigating safety risks of effective drugs) without causing unintended consequences (creating a burden to the health care system and physicians and/or diminishing patient access to drugs)? Sitting squarely in the crosshairs, the approved shared REMS for extended-release/long-acting opioid analgesics provide a lens through which this question can be examined. This article discusses the current status, stakeholders, and key policy issues for clinicians with a focus on the shared REMS for opioids, as well as the anticipated role of clinicians in optimizing patient care in the new world of REMS. PMID:25441401

Brooks, Marta J

2014-12-01

40

To protect or abandon: a participatory process on landslide risk mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

With escalating costs of landslide risk mitigation and relief, a challenge for local authorities is to develop landslide risk mitigation measures that are viewed as efficient, feasible and fair by the many stakeholders involved. Innovative measures and the participation of stakeholders in the decision making process are essential elements in developing effective strategies to deal with the ever-changing spatial and temporal patterns of landslide risk. A stakeholder-led policy process, however, can face many social and economic challenges. One of the most difficult is deciding between costly protection measures or relocating homes. Particularly in areas with high population density, protection works are often not built because of economic/environmental constraints or private interests of the local residents. At the same time it not always possible to relocate households even if the costs are deemed less than protecting them. These issues turned out to be crucial in a recent participatory process for selecting risk mitigation measures in the town of Nocera Inferiore, Southern Italy, which experienced a landslide in 2005 causing three fatalities. The paper reports on this process which was structured in a series of meetings with a group of selected residents and several parallel activities open to the public. The preparatory work included semi-structured interviews carried out with key local stakeholders and a public survey eliciting residents' views on landslide risk mitigation. After describing the background of the landslide risk management problem in Nocera Inferiore, the paper focuses on three packages of risk mitigation measures (each of them not exceeding a total cost of 7 million Euro, namely the available funds) and the key trade-offs that emerged during the meetings with the residents. The participants reached a unanimous consensus on fundamental priorities, i.e. the improvement of the warning system, the implementation of an integrated system of monitoring and territorial survey and the stabilization of the open slopes with naturalistic engineering works. Much more debate was devoted to the relocation of residents from the most endangered areas and/or the need to build passive structural works, especially on private properties. Notwithstanding the difficulties in reaching a shared "compromise solution" for risk mitigation, the results demonstrate the value of citizen participation in landslide risk mitigation decisions and highlight the role that participation can play in risk management more generally.

Scolobig, A.; Bayer, J.; Cascini, L.; Ferlisi, S.

2012-04-01

41

Exponential Spectral Risk Measures  

OpenAIRE

Spectral risk measures are attractive risk measures as they allow the user to obtain risk measures that reflect their subjective risk-aversion. This paper examines spectral risk measures based on an exponential utility function, and finds that these risk measures have nice intuitive properties. It also discusses how they can be estimated using numerical quadrature methods, and how confidence intervals for them can be estimated using a parametric bootstrap. Illustrative resul...

Dowd, Kevin; Cotter, John

2011-01-01

42

Tradable measure of risk  

OpenAIRE

The main idea of this paper is to introduce Tradeable Measures of Risk as an objective and model independent way of measuring risk. The present methods of risk measurement, such as the standard Value-at-Risk supported by BASEL II, are based on subjective assumptions of future returns. Therefore two different models applied to the same portfolio can lead to different values of a risk measure. In order to achieve an objective measurement of risk, we introduce a concept of {...

Pospisil, Libor; Vecer, Jan; Xu, Mingxin

2007-01-01

43

Evaluating the effectiveness of flood damage mitigation measures by the application of propensity score matching  

Science.gov (United States)

The employment of damage mitigation measures (DMMs) by individuals is an important component of integrated flood risk management. In order to promote efficient damage mitigation measures, accurate estimates of their damage mitigation potential are required. That is, for correctly assessing the damage mitigation measures' effectiveness from survey data, one needs to control for sources of bias. A biased estimate can occur if risk characteristics differ between individuals who have, or have not, implemented mitigation measures. This study removed this bias by applying an econometric evaluation technique called propensity score matching (PSM) to a survey of German households along three major rivers that were flooded in 2002, 2005, and 2006. The application of this method detected substantial overestimates of mitigation measures' effectiveness if bias is not controlled for, ranging from nearly EUR 1700 to 15 000 per measure. Bias-corrected effectiveness estimates of several mitigation measures show that these measures are still very effective since they prevent between EUR 6700 and 14 000 of flood damage per flood event. This study concludes with four main recommendations regarding how to better apply propensity score matching in future studies, and makes several policy recommendations.

Hudson, P.; Botzen, W. J. W.; Kreibich, H.; Bubeck, P.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

2014-07-01

44

Mitigation of surface reflection in PIV measurements  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Surface reflections of high-intensity laser light are a common concern when conducting particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements. Consequences range from a poor signal-to-noise ratio (overexposure) in near-surface areas up to camera sensor damage. The severity depends on the interplay between three factors: surface properties, laser light intensity and relative camera position. In stereoscopic or tomographic PIV setups, material selection is often the only factor which can be adapted. We present a systematic comparative study, involving different materials and surface treatments. Their potential to mitigate surface reflections is quantified against the reference case of a flat black painted wooden surface. The largest reduction of surface reflection intensity is obtained by applying fluorescent paint on wood or by employing electropolished steel. The more widely used flat black painted wood shows poor behavior. (technical design note)

45

Land Use Scenario Modeling for Flood Risk Mitigation  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available It is generally accepted that flood risk has been increasing in Europe in the last decades. Accordingly, it becomes a priority to better understand its drivers and mechanisms. Flood risk is evaluated on the basis of three factors: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. If one of these factors increases, then so does the risk. Land use change models used for ex-ante assessment of spatial trends provide planners with powerful tools for territorial decision making. However, until recently this type of model has been largely neglected in strategic planning for flood risk mitigation. Thus, ex-ante assessment of flood risk is an innovative application of land use change models. The aim of this paper is to propose a flood risk mitigation approach using exposure scenarios. The methodology is applied in the Pordenone province in northern Italy. In the past 50 years Pordenone has suffered several heavy floods, the disastrous consequences of which demonstrated the vulnerability of the area. Results of this study confirm that the main driving force of increased flood risk is found in new urban developments in flood-prone areas.

José I. Barredo

2010-05-01

46

Evaluating the effectiveness of road mitigation measures  

OpenAIRE

The last 20 years have seen a dramatic increase in efforts to mitigate the negative effects of roads and traffic on wildlife, including fencing to prevent wildlife-vehicle collisions and wildlife crossing structures to facilitate landscape connectivity. While not necessarily explicitly articulated, the fundamental drivers behind road mitigation are human safety, animal welfare, and/or wildlife conservation. Concomitant with the increased effort to mitigate has been a focus on evaluating road ...

Grift, E. A.; Ree, R.; Fahrig, L.; Houlahan, J. E.; Jaeger, J. A. G.; Klar, N.; Francisco Madrin?an, L.; Olson, L.

2013-01-01

47

Strategy Guideline: Mitigation of Retrofit Risk Factors  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI) is currently developing strategies designed to promote and achieve increased energy savings and promote upgrades in the residential retrofit sector. These strategies are targeted to retrofit program managers, retrofit contractors, policy makers, academic researchers, and non-governmental organizations. This report focuses on four key areas to promote home energy upgrades: fostering accurate energy savings projections; understanding consumer perceptions for energy savings; measuring energy savings, and ensuring quality control for retrofit installations.

Berman, M.; Smith, P.; Porse, E.

2012-12-01

48

Analysing the external supply chain risk driver competitiveness: a risk mitigation framework and business continuity plan.  

Science.gov (United States)

Innovation challenges for handling supply chain risks have become one of the most important drivers in business competitiveness and differentiation. This study analyses competitiveness at the external supply chain level as a driver of risks and provides a framework for mitigating these risks. The mitigation framework, also called the supply chain continuity framework, provides insight into six stages of the business continuity planning (BCP) process life cycle (risk mitigation management, business impact analysis, supply continuity strategy development, supply continuity plan development, supply continuity plan testing and supply continuity plan maintenance), together with the operational constructs: customer service, inventory management, flexibility, time to market, ordering cycle time and quality. The purpose of the BCP process life cycle and operational constructs working together is to emphasise the way in which a supply chain can deal with disruption risks and, consequently, bring competitive advantage. Future research will consider the new risk scenarios and analyse the consequences to promote the improvement of supply chain resilience. PMID:21177223

Blos, Mauricio F; Wee, Hui-Ming; Yang, Joshua

2010-11-01

49

Mitigating Epidemics through Mobile Micro-measures  

CERN Document Server

Epidemics of infectious diseases are among the largest threats to the quality of life and the economic and social well-being of developing countries. The arsenal of measures against such epidemics is well-established, but costly and insufficient to mitigate their impact. In this paper, we argue that mobile technology adds a powerful weapon to this arsenal, because (a) mobile devices endow us with the unprecedented ability to measure and model the detailed behavioral patterns of the affected population, and (b) they enable the delivery of personalized behavioral recommendations to individuals in real time. We combine these two ideas and propose several strategies to generate such recommendations from mobility patterns. The goal of each strategy is a large reduction in infections, with a small impact on the normal course of daily life. We evaluate these strategies over the Orange D4D dataset and show the benefit of mobile micro-measures, even if only a fraction of the population participates. These preliminary ...

Kafsi, Mohamed; Maystre, Lucas; Yartseva, Lyudmila; Grossglauser, Matthias; Thiran, Patrick

2013-01-01

50

Natural risk assessment and decision planning for disaster mitigation  

OpenAIRE

In this paper, decisional models are introduced aiming at defining a general framework for natural disaster mitigation. More specifically, an integrated approach based on system modelling and optimal resource assignment is presented in order to support the decision makers in pre-operational and real-time management of forest fire emergencies. Some strategies for pre-operative and real time risk management will be described and formalized as optimal resource assignment problems. To this end, s...

Fiorucci, P.; Gaetani, F.; Minciardi, R.; Trasforini, E.

2005-01-01

51

Risk Mitigation in Triadic Network Configurations within a Servitized Context  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Purpose: This paper examines risk mitigation for a servitizing organisation and its supply network configuration. This is an area of research that has not been adequately explored to date within a servitization context. In particular, the paper examines triadic configurations using an agency perspective. Design/methodology/approach: An exploratory case study of a truck manufacturer and its supply network is conducted over a two year period. Data consists predominantly of semi-structured interviews, observations and workshops with the case organisation. Findings: The findings of the study indicate that behavior-based controls, combined with information, are a key contributory factor in mitigating risk within triadic network structures. Research limitations/implications: This research is limited to one in-depth case study, within the truck industry. Whilst this represents an appropriate approach given the exploratory nature of the study, there is a need for further empirical research across different industries. Originality/value: Theoretical insights are gleaned through the application of agency theory as a lens to understand risk mitigation within supply networks within the context of servitization.

Raja, Jawwad; Roehrich, Jens

2014-01-01

52

Heat exchanger fouling: Prediction, measurement, and mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

The US Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Industrial Programs (OIP) sponsors the development of innovative heat exchange systems. Fouling is a major and persistent cost associated with most industrial heat exchangers and nationally wastes an estimated 2.9 Quads per year. To predict and control fouling, three OIP projects are currently exploring heat exchanger fouling in specific industrial applications. A fouling probe has been developed to determine empirically the fouling potential of an industrial gas stream and to derive the fouling thermal resistance. The probe is a hollow metal cylinder capable of measuring the average heat flux along the length of the tube. The local heat flux is also measured by a heat flux meter embedded in the probe wall. The fouling probe has been successfully tested in the laboratory at flue gas temperatures up to 2200 F and a local heat flux up to 41,000 BTU/hr sq ft. The probe has been field tested at a coal-fired boiler plant. Future tests at a municipal waste incinerator are planned. Two other projects study enhanced heat exchanger tubes, specifically the effect of enhanced surface geometries on the tube bundle performance. Both projects include fouling in a liquid heat transfer fluid. Identifying and quantifying the factors affecting fouling in these enhanced heat transfer tubes will lead to techniques to mitigate fouling.

53

Interventionist and participatory approaches to flood risk mitigation decisions: two case studies in the Italian Alps  

Science.gov (United States)

Flood risk mitigation decisions pose key challenges not only from a technical but also from a social, economic and political viewpoint. There is an increasing demand for improving the quality of these processes by including different stakeholders - and especially by involving the local residents in the decision making process - and by guaranteeing the actual improvement of local social capacities during and after the decision making. In this paper we analyse two case studies of flood risk mitigation decisions, Malborghetto-Valbruna and Vipiteno-Sterzing, in the Italian Alps. In both of them, mitigation works have been completed or planned, yet following completely different approaches especially in terms of responses of residents and involvement of local authorities. In Malborghetto-Valbruna an 'interventionist' approach (i.e. leaning towards a top down/technocratic decision process) was used to make decisions after the flood event that affected the municipality in the year 2003. In Vipiteno-Sterzing, a 'participatory' approach (i.e. leaning towards a bottom-up/inclusive decision process) was applied: decisions about risk mitigation measures were made by submitting different projects to the local citizens and by involving them in the decision making process. The analysis of the two case studies presented in the paper is grounded on the results of two research projects. Structured and in-depth interviews, as well as questionnaire surveys were used to explore residents' and local authorities' orientations toward flood risk mitigation. Also a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) involving key stakeholders was used to better understand the characteristics of the communities and their perception of flood risk mitigation issues. The results highlight some key differences between interventionist and participatory approaches, together with some implications of their adoption in the local context. Strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches, as well as key challenges for the future are also discussed.

Bianchizza, C.; Del Bianco, D.; Pellizzoni, L.; Scolobig, A.

2012-04-01

54

Cost-benefit analysis of alternative LNG vapor-mitigation measures. Topical report, September 14, 1987-January 15, 1991  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A generalized methodology is presented for comparing the costs and safety benefits of alternative hazard mitigation measures for a large LNG vapor release. The procedure involves the quantification of the risk to the public before and after the application of LNG vapor mitigation measures. In the study, risk was defined as the product of the annual accident frequency, estimated from a fault tree analysis, and the severity of the accident. Severity was measured in terms of the number of people who may be exposed to 2.5% or higher concentration. The ratios of the annual costs of the various mitigation measures to their safety benefits (as determined by the differences between the risk before and after mitigation measure implementation), were then used to identify the most cost-effective approaches to vapor cloud mitigation

55

Uncertainty of Mitigation Measures to Floods in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia  

Science.gov (United States)

As an aspect of the changing climatic conditions and anthropogenic impact; however, floods and torrents have been recently existed in Jeddah, the coastal Saudi city along the Red Sea. Distributed over 28 surface water basins, totaling an area of more than 2500km2, floods cover more than 15% of the area. This is well pronounced in 2009 and 2011, and it was attributed mainly to the torrential rainfall peaks the area witnesses lately. In addition, there is a chaotic urban distribution from the coastal zone to the adjacent mountain chains to the east, where torrential water runs towards the coast. A detailed assessment has been obtained using advanced space tools (e.g. high-resolution satellite images), and the application was carried out on several aspects of these images and at different dates. This was accomplished in combination the applications of geo-spatial systems to induce the mechanism of water flow regime and to identify the major reasons behind the high risk magnitude. Consequently, the geomorphologic and hydrologic parameters for flood occurrence were recognized. In the light of this catastrophic status; however, mitigation measures are rare enough to protect the area under risk. Recently, and after the 2009 and the recurrent 2011 disasters, which were resulted from floods, some mitigation measures have been undertaken and others were proposed. However, there is still uncertainty for an integrated flood control system. This can be viewed from the unsuitability of the selected sites and erroneous applications for flood controls. Besides, there is a lack to: 1) a giant channeling system for the risk area, 2) check dams, 3) ponds for water collection, 4) sediments-fixing controls, 5) traced watercourses. This is in addition to absence of proper legislation to prevent chaotic urban activities along valleys' pathways.

Al Saud, M.

2011-12-01

56

Optimum cooling of data centers application of risk assessment and mitigation techniques  

CERN Document Server

This book provides data center designers and operators with methods by which to assess and mitigate the risks associated with utilization of optimum cooling solutions. The goal is to provide readers with sufficient knowledge to implement measures such as free air cooling or direct liquid immersion cooling properly, or combination of existing and emerging cooling technologies in data centers, base stations, and server farms. This book also: Discusses various telecommunication infrastructures, with an emphasis on data centers and base stations Covers the most commonly known energy and power management techniques, as well as emerging cooling solutions for data centers Describes the risks to the electronic equipment fitted in these installations and the methods of risk mitigation Devotes  a particular focus to an up-to-date review of the emerging cooling methods (such as free air cooling and direct liquid immersion cooling) and tools and best practices for designers, technology developers, installation operators...

Dai, Jun; Das, Diganta; Pecht, Michael G

2014-01-01

57

Natural risk assessment and decision planning for disaster mitigation  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In this paper, decisional models are introduced aiming at defining a general framework for natural disaster mitigation. More specifically, an integrated approach based on system modelling and optimal resource assignment is presented in order to support the decision makers in pre-operational and real-time management of forest fire emergencies. Some strategies for pre-operative and real time risk management will be described and formalized as optimal resource assignment problems. To this end, some models capable to describe the resources dynamics will be introduced, both in pre-operative phase and in real-time phase.

P. Fiorucci

2005-01-01

58

Risks and risks mitigations in the supply chain of mangosteen: a case study  

OpenAIRE

Mangosteen (Garcinia mangostana L.) is the highly demanded fruit for export commodity from Indonesia. The biggest mangosteen production center in Indonesia is West Java Province. The development of the mangosteen supply chain in Indonesia, particularly in West Java Province is heavily affected by uncertain potential risks for the chain. This paper identifies potential risks of the supply chain and studies the interrelationships between strategies for mitigating those risks. Fuzzy Anal...

Astuti, R.; Arkeman, M. M. Y.; Poerwanto, R.; Meuwissen, M. P. M.

2013-01-01

59

The last mile: earthquake risk mitigation assistance in developing countries.  

Science.gov (United States)

Over the past few decades, we have seen many joint programmes between developed countries and developing countries to help the latter in managing their earthquake risks. These programmes span the whole spectrum of disciplines from seismology and geology to engineering, social science and economics. Many of these programmes have been effective in raising awareness, in urging governments to work towards risk reduction and in spawning an 'industry' of disaster management in many of the developing countries. However, even as these efforts proceed, we have seen death and destruction due to earthquake after earthquake in developing countries, strongly suggesting that the problems for which those assistance programmes were developed are not so effective. Therefore, it is natural to ask why this is happening. Are the assistance programmes reaching the right people? Maybe we are reaching the right people and doing the right type of things in these countries, but we have not allowed enough time for our actions to take effect. Maybe we are reaching the right people and doing the right actions for most of the miles we need to cover in helping communities mitigate their earthquake risks. However, the issue could be whether we are reaching people who represent the 'last mile' on this pathway. Here, I explore whether the work that many organizations and countries have done towards earthquake risk reduction over the past few decades in developing countries is appropriate or not. Why do we keep seeing the catastrophes of Sumatra, Chi Chi, Bhuj, Turkey, Algeria and on and on? I will articulate what I think is the problem. My contribution is intended to generate discussions, self-analysis of our approaches, what we are doing right and what we are not doing right. Hopefully such discussions will result in a better connection between the last mile and programmes around the world which are working towards earthquake risk mitigation. PMID:16844655

Shah, Haresh C

2006-08-15

60

Reservoir souring: it is all about risk mitigation  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The presence of H2S in produced fluid can be due to various sources, among which are heat/rock interaction and leaks from other reservoirs. This paper discusses the reasons, risk assessment and tools for mitigating reservoir souring. Uncontrolled microorganism activity can cause a sweet reservoir (without H2S) to become sour (production of H2S). The development of bacteria is one of the main causes of reservoir souring in unconventional gas fields. It is difficult to predict souring in seawater due to produced water re-injection (PWRI). Risk assessment and modeling techniques for reservoir souring are discussed. Some of the factors controlling H2S production include injection location, presence of scavenging minerals and biogenic souring. Mitigation methods such as biocide treatment of injection water, sulphate removal from seawater, microbial monitoring techniques such as the molecular microbiology method (MMM), and enumeration by serial dilution are explained. In summary, it can be concluded that reservoir souring is a long-term problem and should be assessed at the beginning of operations.

Kuijvenhoven, Cor [Shell (Canada)

2011-07-01

61

Public perception of flood risks, flood forecasting and mitigation  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available A multidisciplinary and integrated approach to the flood mitigation decision making process should provide the best response of society in a flood hazard situation including preparation works and post hazard mitigation. In Slovenia, there is a great lack of data on social aspects and public response to flood mitigation measures and information management. In this paper, two studies of flood perception in the Slovenian town Celje are represented. During its history, Celje was often exposed to floods, the most recent serious floods being in 1990 and in 1998, with a hundred and fifty return period and more than ten year return period, respectively. Two surveys were conducted in 1997 and 2003, with 157 participants from different areas of the town in the first, and 208 in the second study, aiming at finding the general attitude toward the floods. The surveys revealed that floods present a serious threat in the eyes of the inhabitants, and that the perception of threat depends, to a certain degree, on the place of residence. The surveys also highlighted, among the other measures, solidarity and the importance of insurance against floods.

M. Brilly

2005-01-01

62

Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Planning and decision making amidst programmatic and technological risks represent significant challenges for projects. This presentation addresses the four step risk-assessment process needed to determine clear path forward to mature needed technology and design, license, and construct advanced nuclear power plants, which have never been built before, including Small Modular Reactors. This four step process has been carefully applied to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. STEP 1 - Risk Identification Risks are identified, collected, and categorized as technical risks, programmatic risks, and project risks, each of which result in cost and schedule impacts if realized. These include risks arising from the use of technologies not previously demonstrated in a relevant application. These risks include normal and accident scenarios which the SMR could experience including events that cause the disablement of engineered safety features (typically documented in Phenomena Identification Ranking Tables (PIRT) as produced with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and design needs which must be addressed to further detail the design. Product - Project Risk Register contained in a database with sorting, presentation, rollup, risk work off functionality similar to the NGNP Risk Management System . STEP 2 - Risk Quantification The risks contained in the risk register are then scored for probability of occurrence and severity of consequence, if realized. Here the scoring methodology if realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap. Product - Risk Handling Strategy. STEP 4 - Residual Risk Work off The risk handling strategy is entered into the Project Risk Allocation Tool (PRAT) to analyze each task for its ability to reduce risk. The result is risk-informed task prioritization. The risk handling strategy is captured in the Risk Management System, a relational database that provides conventional database utility, including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. The tool's Hierarchy Tree allows visualization and analyses of complex relationships between risks, risk mitigation tasks, design needs, and PIRTs. Product - Project Risk Allocation Tool and Risk Management System which depict project plan to reduce risk and current progress in doing so.

63

Fish habitat mitigation measures for hydrotechnical projects  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In recent years, the identification and mitigation of environmental impacts of hydrotechnical projects, particularly on fish and fish habitats, have become a major component of project planning and design. Potential impacts to fish and fish habitat may include increased fish mortality, decreased species diversity, and loss or decreases in fish production due to loss of habitat or alteration of its suitability. These impacts arise from flooding of riverine habitat, alteration of flow quantity and distribution, changes in morphology, and alteration of water quality, including suspended sediments, temperature, dissolved oxygen, and mercury. The results of a study for the Canadian Federal Department of Fisheries and Oceans Central and Arctic Region, examining fish habitat mitigation techniques for their applicability to hydrotechnical projects in Canada are summarized. The requirements for achievement and verification of the no net loss policy for a project are discussed. 10 refs., 2 tabs

64

Contractual strategies for risk mitigation : developing wind power projects in emerging markets  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This presentation outlined the risks associated with wind projects in emerging markets. The risks are similar to those of any wind project and include risks associated with construction, regulations, markets, technology, operations, payment, politics, and wind resource. This presentation described the underlying conditions for each of those risks and presented a structure for wind projects that would mitigate these risks. In emerging markets, regulatory risks may be more difficult to quantify and there is likely to be an increase in payment risk, political risk and legal risk. The role of Concessions or Implementation Agreements in mitigating the risk was discussed

65

Mitigating mountain hazards in Austria – legislation, risk transfer, and awareness building  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Embedded in the overall concept of integral risk management, mitigating mountain hazards is pillared by land use regulations, risk transfer, and information. In this paper aspects on legislation related to natural hazards in Austria are summarised, with a particular focus on spatial planning activities and hazard mapping, and possible adaptations focussing on enhanced resilience are outlined. Furthermore, the system of risk transfer is discussed, highlighting the importance of creating incentives for risk-aware behaviour, above all with respect to individual precaution and insurance solutions. Therefore, the issue of creating awareness through information is essential, which is presented subsequently. The study results in recommendations of how administrative units on different federal and local levels could increase the enforcement of regulations related to the minimisation of natural hazard risk. Moreover, the nexus to risk transfer mechanisms is provided, focusing on the current compensation system in Austria and some possible adjustments in order to provide economic incentives for (private investments in mitigation measures, i.e. local structural protection. These incentives should be supported by delivering information on hazard and risk target-oriented to any stakeholder involved. Therefore, coping strategies have to be adjusted and the interaction between prevention and precaution has to be highlighted. The paper closes with recommendations of how these efforts could be achieved, with a particular focus on the situation in the Republic of Austria.

M. Holub

2009-04-01

66

Mitigating mountain hazards in Austria - legislation, risk transfer, and awareness building  

Science.gov (United States)

Embedded in the overall concept of integral risk management, mitigating mountain hazards is pillared by land use regulations, risk transfer, and information. In this paper aspects on legislation related to natural hazards in Austria are summarised, with a particular focus on spatial planning activities and hazard mapping, and possible adaptations focussing on enhanced resilience are outlined. Furthermore, the system of risk transfer is discussed, highlighting the importance of creating incentives for risk-aware behaviour, above all with respect to individual precaution and insurance solutions. Therefore, the issue of creating awareness through information is essential, which is presented subsequently. The study results in recommendations of how administrative units on different federal and local levels could increase the enforcement of regulations related to the minimisation of natural hazard risk. Moreover, the nexus to risk transfer mechanisms is provided, focusing on the current compensation system in Austria and some possible adjustments in order to provide economic incentives for (private) investments in mitigation measures, i.e. local structural protection. These incentives should be supported by delivering information on hazard and risk target-oriented to any stakeholder involved. Therefore, coping strategies have to be adjusted and the interaction between prevention and precaution has to be highlighted. The paper closes with recommendations of how these efforts could be achieved, with a particular focus on the situation in the Republic of Austria.

Holub, M.; Fuchs, S.

2009-04-01

67

Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS): educating the prescriber.  

Science.gov (United States)

The US FDA Amendments Act of 2007 was signed into law on 27 September 2007. A provision of this law granted the FDA new powers to enhance drug safety by requiring the pharmaceutical industry to develop Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS). REMS are deemed necessary when a question exists as to whether the benefits of a drug outweigh its risks. REMS constitute a safety plan with several potential components, including a medication guide, a communication plan, elements to ensure safe use and an implementation system to help guide the prescribers, pharmacists and patients. This applies to existing drugs on the market, new drug applications (NDAs), abbreviated NDAs (generics) and biologics licence applications. REMS represent an 'upgrade' from previously required risk minimization action plans, based on the strengthening of FDA powers of authority and enforceability to incur monetary penalties against individuals representing the pharmaceutical industry who fail to comply. For illustrative purposes, we chose the drug romiplostim (Nplate®) to present an REMS, as all components were utilized to help assuage risks associated with the drug. Romiplostim is an FDA-approved drug used to treat thrombocytopenia in patients with chronic immune (idiopathic) thrombocytopenic purpura that has a significant adverse safety profile based on the risk of changes in bone marrow reticulin formation and bone marrow fibroses, and other associated risks. This review of current REMS policy is intended to provide the prescriber with a better understanding of current modalities in FDA-mandated drug safety programmes, which will impact day-to-day healthcare provider practices. PMID:22171604

Nicholson, Susan C; Peterson, Janet; Yektashenas, Behin

2012-02-01

68

Mitigation measures for the La Grande 1 hydroelectric development  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Measures to mitigate environmental impacts of the La Grande 1 hydroelectric development are described. An overview is presented of the La Grande 1 project, its surrounding environment, and the principle environmental repercussions of the reservoir, hydrological changes between the dam and river mouth, construction activities and permanent and temporary structures, and presence of workers. Mitigation measures including compensation, corrective measures (deforestation, selective cutting, fish populations, wildlife populations, land rehabilitation, access roads, fisheries, and erosion control), protective measures, enhancement measures, and contract and employment opportunities for the Cree population are described. 10 refs., 2 figs

69

Operational mitigation measures to address bat casualties  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

TransAlta Wind operates a fleet of 220 wind turbines with a capacity of 417 MW of wind energy. The subsidiary's Summerview wind farm was commissioned in 2004 and is comprised of 39 Vestas V-80 wind turbines. The wind turbines were placed predominantly in an agricultural setting among livestock and grasslands. An examination of post-construction monitoring demonstrated that 532 bat casualties occurred between August and September of 2005. The majority of the fatalities were among tree-roosting bats along forested ridges of the development. Researchers at the University of Calgary are investigating the cause of the bat fatalities as well as potential mitigation methods. To date, the study has demonstrated that bats fly higher when wind speeds are lower and do not tend to fly in stronger winds. Peak migration rates occur in August and early September. As a result of the study, turbines at the wind farm are now manually adjusted in order to accommodate the bats during migration periods. Experiments have also been conducted to modify the cut-in speeds of wind turbines. Fewer bat casualties have been observed at the experimental turbines. It was concluded that the mitigation methods used in the study may be used to address environmental concerns about wind turbines. tabs., figs.

Edworthy, J.; Holder, M.; Valgardson, M. [TransAlta Wind, Calgary, AB (Canada); Baerwald, E.; Barclay, R. [Calgary Univ., AB (Canada)

2008-07-01

70

Assessment of risk evaluation and mitigation strategies in oncology: summary of the oncology risk evaluation and mitigation strategies workshop.  

Science.gov (United States)

To address oncology community stakeholder concerns regarding implementation of the Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) program, ASCO sponsored a workshop to gather REMS experiences from representatives of professional societies, patient organizations, pharmaceutical companies, and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Stakeholder presentations and topical panel discussions addressed REMS program development, implementation processes, and practice experiences, as well as oncology drug safety processes. A draft REMS decision tool prepared by the ASCO REMS Steering Committee was presented for group discussion with facilitated, goal-oriented feedback. THE WORKSHOP IDENTIFIED SEVERAL UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES RESULTING FROM CURRENT ONCOLOGY REMS: (1) the release of personal health information to drug sponsors as a condition for gaining access to a needed drug; (2) risk information that is not tailored-and therefore not accessible-to all literacy levels; (3) exclusive focus on drug risk, thereby affecting patient-provider treatment discussion; (4) REMS elements that do not consider existing, widely practiced oncology safety standards, professional training, and experience; and (5) administrative burdens that divert the health care team from direct patient care activities and, in some cases, could limit patient access to important therapies. Increased provider and professional society participation should form the basis of ongoing and future REMS standardization discussions with the FDA to work toward overall improvement of risk communication. PMID:23814522

Frame, James N; Jacobson, Joseph O; Vogel, Wendy H; Griffith, Niesha; Wariabharaj, Darshan; Garg, Rekha; Zon, Robin; Stephens, Cyntha L; Bialecki, Alison M; Bruinooge, Suanna S; Allen, Steven L

2013-03-01

71

Women, mercury and artisanal gold mining : Risk communication and mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

Artisanal miners employ rudimentary techniques for minéral extraction and often operate under hazardous, labour intensive, highly disorganized and illegal conditions. Gold is the main mineral extracted by artisanal miners, and the ecological and human health impacts resulting from mercury (Hg) use in gold extraction warrant special consideration. More than 30% of world's 13 million artisanal miners are women and, as they are often perceived to be less suited for labour intensive mining methods, the majority of women work in the processing aspect of artisanal mining, including amalgamation with Hg. As women are also predominantly responsible for food preparation, they are in an excellent position to respond to health risks associated with consumption of Hg-contaminated foods in impacted areas. In addition to their influence on consumption habits, women in artisanal mining communities may be in a position to effect positive change with respect to the technologies employed. Thus, gender sensitive approaches are necessary to reduce exposure risks to women and their families, promote clean technologies and support the development of stronger, healthier artisanal mining communities. This paper describes the roles of women in artisanal gold mining, highlights their importance in reducing the Hg exposure in these communities, and provides insight into how risks from Hg pollution can effectively be communicated and mitigated.

Hinton, J. J.; Veiga, M. M.; Beinhoff, C.

2003-05-01

72

Vrancea earthquakes. Courses for specific actions to mitigate seismic risk  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Earthquakes in the Carpathian-Pannonian region are confined to the crust, except the Vrancea zone, where earthquakes with focal depth down to 200 Km occur. For example, the ruptured area migrated from 150 km to 180 km (November 10,1940, Mw = 7.7) from 90 km to 110 km (March 4, 1977, Mw 7.4), from 130 km to 150 km (August 30, 1986, Mw = 7.1) and from 70 km to 90 km (May 30, 1990, Mw = 6.9) depth. The depth interval between 110 km and 130 km remains not ruptured since 1802, October 26, when it was the strongest earthquake occurred in this part of Central Europe. The magnitude is assumed to be Mw = 7.9 - 8.0 and this depth interval is a natural candidate for the next strong Vrancea event. While no country in the world is entirely safe, the lack of capacity to limit the impact of seismic hazards remains a major burden for all countries and while the world has witnessed an exponential increase in human and material losses due to natural disasters given by earthquakes, there is a need to reverse trends in seismic risk mitigation to future events. Main courses for specific actions to mitigate the seismic risk given by strong deep Vrancea earthquakes should be considered as key for development actions: - Early warning system for industrial facilities. Early warning is more than a technological instrument to detect, monitor and submit warnings. It should become part of a management information system for decision-making in information system for decision-making in the context of national institutional frameworks for disaster management and part of national and local strategies and programmers for risk mitigation; - Prediction program of Vrancea strong earthquakes of short and long term; - Hazard seismic map of Romania. The wrong assessment of the seismic hazard can lead to dramatic situations as those from Bucharest or Kobe. Before the 1977 Vrancea earthquake, the city of Bucharest was designed to intensity I = VII (MMI) and the real intensity was I = IX1/2-X (MMI); - Seismic microzonation of large populated cities. There are zones in Bucharest which have fundamental periods of the soil and geological structures very different and during August 30, 1986 Vrancea earthquake the variations of the recorded peak accelerations were from simple to triple ones; - Shake map. This shake map now under completion will allow us rapidly portray, in real time, the extent of shaking during of earthquake in a simplified form suitable for immediate post-earthquake decision-making; - Seismic tomography of dams for avoiding catastrophes. There are applications of seismic tomography and in general of seismic imaging like methods of investigation for mitigation of earthquake effects. (authors)

73

An integrated approach to risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN threat  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

CBRN mass casualty events threat mitigation remains today the highest international priority. Although significant progress has been made, the national security requirements for efforts to combat Weapons of Mass Destruction and Weapons of Mass Disruption will be of the highest national priority in the near future. An integration of a number of approaches is essential in the risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN treat. Preparedness measures and procedures, engineering, science and technology, policy, medical, and emergency response are essential to reduce the threat from the proliferation and use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Improved coordination between international, public and private security entities is also essential task to hopefully prevent the terrorist attacks. In this lecture, it will be presented very important scientific approach to risk assessment of potential use of nuclear, radiological, biological or chemical weapons in terrorist actions. An integrated approach for mitigating the CBRN threat, crisis management and preparedness measures for prevention and reduction of potential consequences, will be presented.(author)

74

Cost control and risk mitigation of major projects  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In this paper and presentation, the four major types of estimates will be discussed, i.e., capacity factored, equipment factored, semi-detailed and detailed. Key relationships between particular portions of estimates will be discussed such as the relationship between direct field labor and indirect field costs. Having set the basis for developing a project's cost through estimating, the paper will then list and discuss the fifteen key steps which must be followed to control the costs of a project. Next, the subject of allowances and contingency will be discussed and defined and the differences between the two will be highlighted. Having established exactly what contingency is, the subject of risk analysis through RANGE estimating will be discussed. The methods used to establish a precise contingency and probability of an over/under run will be discussed. Finally, the paper will discuss the methods by which a project manager, owner or contractor can mitigate risks; that is to eliminate, transfer or minimize their effect

75

Considerations on comprehensive risk assessment and mitigation planning of volcanic ash-fall  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Volcanic ash-fall is inevitable hazard throughout Japan, and causes wide range of effects due to its physical and chemical properties. Nuclear power plants in Japan face the necessity to assess the risk from volcanic ash-fall. Risk assessment of the volcanic ash-fall should include engineering solution and mitigation planning as well as the ash-fall hazard. This report points out the characteristics for reducing the various effects of volcanic ash-fall as follows. Large-scale eruptions produce prominent volcanic ash-falls that can approach power plants at a great distance. Aftermath hazards of ash-fall events, such as remobilization of fine ash particles and generation of lahars, require further assessments. The kind and extent of damages becomes greater whenever ash is wet. Wet ash requires separate assessments in contrast to dry ash. The mitigation and recovery measures at power plants involve quick cleanup operations of volcanic ash. Those operations should be prepared through comprehensive risk assessment, and by cooperation with authorities, during pre-eruption repose period. The comprehensive assessment for volcanic ash-fall hazards, however, has yet to be conducted. Development of risk communication method may result in increased implementation mitigation planning. Numerical analysis of the ash-fall hazards provides quantitative data on particle motions that can be used in the risk assessment. In order to implement the quantitative assessment method, the verifiquantitative assessment method, the verification on the effect of ambient air condition to the altitude of volcanic ash cloud is necessary. We need to develop a three-dimensional model of volcanic ash cloud, and calculate motions of ash clouds under multiple conditions of ambient air. (author)

76

Human perception of radon risk and radon mitigation: some remarks.  

Science.gov (United States)

The Radon program in the Czech Republic has a relatively long and rich history. Procedures, which enable to evaluate the risk of radon penetration from the ground, to protect new buildings, to find existing buildings with elevated indoor radon levels and to realise remedial measures in such buildings, have been developed, published and tested. In some cases, the whole system may fail due to psychological or sociological reasons. Three types of problems (conflicts) will be presented: human behaviour affecting measurement results, conflict between individual and 'all-society' points of view, interpretation of radon risk itself. PMID:18407973

Neznal, Martin; Neznal, Matej

2008-01-01

77

Climate risk perception and ex-ante mitigation strategies of rural households in Thailand and Vietnam  

OpenAIRE

A major risk factor for rural areas in emerging market economies, such as Thailand and Vietnam, can be attributed to climate change. Adoption of effective ex-ante mitigation strategies is a function of socio-economic household and location characteristics including, among others, the decision makers' perceptions of risk. This study aims to analyze both the determinants of climate-related risk perception and its influence on the choice of ex-ante mitigation strategies. In the context of the DF...

Vo?lker, Marc; Tongruksawattana, Songporne; Hardeweg, Bernd; Waibel, Hermann

2011-01-01

78

Human Factors Research for Space Exploration: Measurement, Modeling, and Mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

As part of NASA's Human Research Program, the Space Human Factors Engineering Project serves as the bridge between Human Factors research and Human Spaceflight applications. Our goal is to be responsive to the operational community while addressing issues at a sufficient level of abstraction to ensure that our tools and solutions generalize beyond the point design. In this panel, representatives from four of our research domains will discuss the challenges they face in solving current problems while also enabling future capabilities. Historically, engineering-dominated organizations have tended to view good Human Factors (HF) as a desire rather than a requirement in system design and development. Our field has made significant gains in the past decade, however; the Department of Defense, for example, now recognizes Human-System Integration (HSI), of which HF is a component, as an integral part of their divisions hardware acquisition processes. And our own agency was far more accepting of HF/HSI requirements during the most recent vehicle systems definition than in any prior cycle. Nonetheless, HF subject matter experts at NASA often find themselves in catch up mode... coping with legacy systems (hardware and software) and procedures that were designed with little regard for the human element, and too often with an attitude of we can deal with any operator issues during training. Our challenge, then, is to segregate the true knowledge gaps in Space Human Factors from the prior failures to incorporate best (or even good) HF design principles. Further, we strive to extract the overarching core HF issues from the point-design-specific concerns that capture the operators (and managers) attention. Generally, our approach embraces a 3M approach to Human Factors: Measurement, Modeling, and Mitigation. Our first step is to measure human performance, to move from subjective anecdotes to objective, quantified data. Next we model the phenomenon, using appropriate methods in our field, modifying them to suit the unique aspects of the space environment. Finally, we develop technologies, tools, and procedures to mitigate the decrements in human performance and capabilities that occur in space environments. When successful, we decrease risks to crew safety and to mission success. When extremely successful (or lucky), we devise generalizable solutions that advance the state of our practice. Our panel is composed of researchers from diverse domains of our project... from different boxes, if you will, of the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS).

Kaiser, Mary K.; Allen, Christopher S.; Barshi, Immanuel; Billman, Dorrit; Holden, Kritina L.

2010-01-01

79

Priority mitigation measures in non-energy sector in Kazakstan  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fulfilling the Commitments on UN FCCC through the U.S. Country Studies Program, Kazakstan has developed the national GHG Inventory, vulnerability and adaptation assessment and estimated the possibility of mitigation measures in certain sectors. Next step is developing National Climate Change Action Plan. That process includes such major steps as setting priorities in mitigation measures and technologies, their comprehensive evaluation, preparation implementation strategies, developing the procedure of incorporation of the National Action Plan into other development plans and programs. This paper presents programs and measures that can reduce GHG emissions in non-energy sector. Measures in land-use change and forestry, agriculture and coal mining are considered. Current situation in non-energy sector of Kazakstan is discussed. The amount of GHG emissions reduction and cost analysis presented in this paper was developed with the use of IPCC recommendations.

Mizina, S.V.; Pilifosova, O.V.; Gossen, E.F.

1996-12-31

80

The role of the Model Validation function to manage and mitigate model risk  

OpenAIRE

This paper describes the current taxonomy of model risk, ways for its mitigation and management and the importance of the model validation function in collaboration with other departments to design and implement them.

Elices, Alberto

2012-01-01

81

Attributing ozone to NOx emissions: Implications for climate mitigation measures  

Science.gov (United States)

Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) lead to formation of ozone, which is an important greenhouse gas. Despite its relevance, little emphasis was previously given on verifying approaches to calculate contributions of individual emissions to ozone and hence to climate change. Basically two methods (perturbation method and tagging method) were used in the past. We demonstrate that both methods are valid and have their area of application, but only tagging calculates contributions of emissions to concentrations, whereas the perturbation method identifies changes in the ozone concentrations due to emission changes. Our results show that the contribution of road traffic emissions to climate change is underestimated by a factor of 5 in the perturbation method. This is caused by non-linear compensating effects from other emission sectors, which are concealed in the perturbation method but disclosed with tagging. Consequently, the effectiveness of mitigation measures for individual sectors (i.e. concentrating on road traffic induced ozone) is only correctly expressed by the tagging method. The perturbation method provides accurately the total impact (i.e. total ozone) of a mitigation measure. However, current approaches, which evaluate the effectiveness of a mitigation measure based on the perturbation approach, do not reflect changes in the chemical state of the atmosphere (i.e. ozone production rates). These largely affect the effectiveness of subsequent measures and hence make the evaluation of the effectiveness of two measures dependent on their chronology of application. We show that also in this regard, the tagging method is better suited to evaluate the effectiveness of a mitigation measure than the perturbation method.

Grewe, Volker; Dahlmann, Katrin; Matthes, Sigrun; Steinbrecht, Wolfgang

2012-11-01

82

Measuring Systemic Risk  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution's contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases with the institution's leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system's loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are ‘taxed’ based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads.

Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

2012-01-01

83

Atmospheric Effects on InSAR Measurements and Their Mitigation  

OpenAIRE

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is a powerful technology for observing the Earth surface, especially for mapping the Earth's topography and deformations. InSAR measurements are however often significantly affected by the atmosphere as the radar signals propagate through the atmosphere whose state varies both in space and in time. Great efforts have been made in recent years to better understand the properties of the atmospheric effects and to develop methods for mitigating th...

Jiang-ping Long; Guang-cai Feng; Jian-jun Zhu; Zhi-wei Li; Xiao-li Ding

2008-01-01

84

Efficiency of mitigation measures for structures subjected to ground movement  

OpenAIRE

Surface subsidence resulting from the collapse of underground cavities, whether natural or man-made can interact with existing buildings on the surface. One of the mitigation measures used is to dig a peripheral trench at a certain distance from the structure, filled with a soft material, like peat, or artificial material. This is thought to reduce the horizontal strain applied to the structure. The 3D numerical analysis presented in this paper is a first step towards evaluating the efficienc...

Prime, N.; Emeriault, Fabrice; Caudron, Matthieu; Al Heib, Marwan

2009-01-01

85

Measuring your radon risk  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In its annual report for 1992/93, the NRPB has warned that tens of thousands of UK employees may be exposed to high levels of radon at work. In addition to those who work underground, employees at risk of radon-induced lung cancer are typically those who spend long periods indoors. This article reviews the implications for all employers especially those in low or unknown levels of radon who resist taking measurements in the belief that by not measuring, they are not liable. (UK)

86

Risk mitigation strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A basic requirement for ITER equipment to meet is a high level of reliability, because ITER operation time is precious and radioactive operation leaves limited scope for repair. In order to reduce the risk of failure during ITER operation an effective risk mitigation strategy is necessary. This paper presents such strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher (ECUPL). A preliminary ECUPL risk analysis identifies possible failure modes. A probabilistic risk assessment quantifies the risk of failure using a 4 x 4 impact-likelihood matrix. Impact is quantified through technical, cost and schedule elements. Likelihood depends on the risk mitigation strategy adopted. A cost benefit analysis determines the most cost effective risk mitigation strategy. An essential element in risk mitigation is the testing of equipment prior to installation on the ITER machine. This paper argues the need for low- and highpower millimetre wave tests carried out on the fully assembled ECUPL. It presents a conceptual design for a dedicated on-site test bed that can handle 2 of 8 microwave beams at 2 MW long pulse operation.

87

Risk mitigation strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A basic requirement for ITER equipment to meet is a high level of reliability, because ITER operation time is precious and radioactive operation leaves limited scope for repair. In order to reduce the risk of failure during ITER operation an effective risk mitigation strategy is necessary. This paper presents such strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher (ECUPL). A preliminary ECUPL risk analysis identifies possible failure modes. A probabilistic risk assessment quantifies the risk of failure using a 4 x 4 impact-likelihood matrix. Impact is quantified through technical, cost and schedule elements. Likelihood depends on the risk mitigation strategy adopted. A cost benefit analysis determines the most cost effective risk mitigation strategy. An essential element in risk mitigation is the testing of equipment prior to installation on the ITER machine. This paper argues the need for low- and highpower millimetre wave tests carried out on the fully assembled ECUPL. It presents a conceptual design for a dedicated on-site test bed that can handle 2 of 8 microwave beams at 2 MW long pulse operation.

Goede, A.P.H., E-mail: A.P.H.Goede@Rijnhuizen.nl [FOM-Institute for Plasma Physics Rijnhuizen, Association EURATOM-FOM, Partner in the Trilateral Euregio Cluster, PO Box 1207, 3430 BE Nieuwegein (Netherlands); Bongers, W.A.; Elzendoorn, B.S.Q.; Graswinckel, M.F.; Baar, M.R. de [FOM-Institute for Plasma Physics Rijnhuizen, Association EURATOM-FOM, Partner in the Trilateral Euregio Cluster, PO Box 1207, 3430 BE Nieuwegein (Netherlands)

2010-12-15

88

Maturity-independent risk measures  

OpenAIRE

The new notion of maturity-independent risk measures is introduced and contrasted with the existing risk measurement concepts. It is shown, by means of two examples, one set on a finite probability space and the other in a diffusion framework, that, surprisingly, some of the widely utilized risk measures cannot be used to build maturity-independent counterparts. We construct a large class of maturity-independent risk measures and give representative examples in both continuo...

Zariphopoulou, Thaleia; Zitkovic, Gordan

2007-01-01

89

49 CFR 192.935 - What additional preventive and mitigative measures must an operator take?  

Science.gov (United States)

...preventive and mitigative measures must an operator take? 192.935 Section 192.935 Transportation Other Regulations Relating... Gas Transmission Pipeline Integrity Management § 192.935 What additional preventive and mitigative...

2010-10-01

90

A risk-mitigation approach to the management of induced seismicity  

Science.gov (United States)

Earthquakes may be induced by a wide range of anthropogenic activities such as mining, fluid injection and extraction, and hydraulic fracturing. In recent years, the increased occurrence of induced seismicity and the impact of some of these earthquakes on the built environment have heightened both public concern and regulatory scrutiny, motivating the need for a framework for the management of induced seismicity. Efforts to develop systems to enable control of seismicity have not yet resulted in solutions that can be applied with confidence in most cases. The more rational approach proposed herein is based on applying the same risk quantification and mitigation measures that are applied to the hazard from natural seismicity. This framework allows informed decision-making regarding the conduct of anthropogenic activities that may cause earthquakes. The consequent risk, if related to non-structural damage (when re-location is not an option), can be addressed by appropriate financial compensation. If the risk poses a threat to life and limb, then it may be reduced through the application of strengthening measures in the built environment—the cost of which can be balanced against the economic benefits of the activity in question—rather than attempting to ensure that some threshold on earthquake magnitude or ground-shaking amplitude is not exceeded. However, because of the specific characteristics of induced earthquakes—which may occur in regions with little or no natural seismicity—the procedures used in standard earthquake engineering need adaptation and modification for application to induced seismicity.

Bommer, Julian J.; Crowley, Helen; Pinho, Rui

2015-04-01

91

A risk-mitigation approach to the management of induced seismicity  

Science.gov (United States)

Earthquakes may be induced by a wide range of anthropogenic activities such as mining, fluid injection and extraction, and hydraulic fracturing. In recent years, the increased occurrence of induced seismicity and the impact of some of these earthquakes on the built environment have heightened both public concern and regulatory scrutiny, motivating the need for a framework for the management of induced seismicity. Efforts to develop systems to enable control of seismicity have not yet resulted in solutions that can be applied with confidence in most cases. The more rational approach proposed herein is based on applying the same risk quantification and mitigation measures that are applied to the hazard from natural seismicity. This framework allows informed decision-making regarding the conduct of anthropogenic activities that may cause earthquakes. The consequent risk, if related to non-structural damage (when re-location is not an option), can be addressed by appropriate financial compensation. If the risk poses a threat to life and limb, then it may be reduced through the application of strengthening measures in the built environment—the cost of which can be balanced against the economic benefits of the activity in question—rather than attempting to ensure that some threshold on earthquake magnitude or ground-shaking amplitude is not exceeded. However, because of the specific characteristics of induced earthquakes—which may occur in regions with little or no natural seismicity—the procedures used in standard earthquake engineering need adaptation and modification for application to induced seismicity.

Bommer, Julian J.; Crowley, Helen; Pinho, Rui

2015-02-01

92

Measuring model risk  

OpenAIRE

Model risk as part of the operational risk is a serious problem for financial institutions. As the pricing of derivatives as well as the computation of the market or credit risk of an institution depend on statistical models the application of a wrong model can lead to a serious over- or underestimation of the institution's risk. Because the underlying data generating process is unknown in practice evaluating the model risk is a challenge. So far, definitions of model risk are either applicat...

Sibbertsen, Philipp; Stahl, Gerhard; Luedtke, Corinna

2008-01-01

93

Risk Measures in Quantitative Finance  

OpenAIRE

This paper was presented and written for two seminars: a national UK University Risk Conference and a Risk Management industry workshop. The target audience is therefore a cross section of Academics and industry professionals. The current ongoing global credit crunch has highlighted the importance of risk measurement in Finance to companies and regulators alike. Despite risk measurement's central importance to risk management, few papers exist reviewing them or following t...

Mitra, Sovan

2009-01-01

94

Mitigating mountain hazards in Austria – legislation, risk transfer, and awareness building  

OpenAIRE

Embedded in the overall concept of integral risk management, mitigating mountain hazards is pillared by land use regulations, risk transfer, and information. In this paper aspects on legislation related to natural hazards in Austria are summarised, with a particular focus on spatial planning activities and hazard mapping, and possible adaptations focussing on enhanced resilience are outlined. Furthermore, the system of risk transfer is discussed, highlighting the importance of creating incent...

Holub, M.; Fuchs, S.

2009-01-01

95

Land Use Scenario Modeling for Flood Risk Mitigation  

OpenAIRE

It is generally accepted that flood risk has been increasing in Europe in the last decades. Accordingly, it becomes a priority to better understand its drivers and mechanisms. Flood risk is evaluated on the basis of three factors: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. If one of these factors increases, then so does the risk. Land use change models used for ex-ante assessment of spatial trends provide planners with powerful tools for territorial decision making. However, until recently this type...

Barredo, Jose? I.; Guy Engelen

2010-01-01

96

Modeling and Measurements for Mitigating Interface from Skyshine  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

?Abstract– Skyshine, the radiation scattered in the air above a high-activity gamma-ray source, can produce interference with radiation portal monitor (RPM) systems at distances up to even many hundred meters. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has been engaged in a campaign of measurements, design work and modeling that explore methods of mitigating the effects of skyshine on outdoor measurements with sensitive instruments. An overview of our work with shielding of skyshine is being reported by us in another paper at this conference. This paper will concentrate on two topics: measurements and modeling with Monte Carlo transport calculations to characterize skyshine from an iridium-192 source, and testing of a prototype louver system, designed and fabricated at PNNL, as a shielding approach to limit the impact of skyshine interference on RPM systems.

Kernan, Warnick J.; Mace, Emily K.; Siciliano, Edward R.; Conlin, Kenneth E.; Flumerfelt, Eric L.; Kouzes, Richard T.; Woodring, Mitchell L.

2009-12-21

97

Tsunami prevention and mitigation necessities and options derived from tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia  

Science.gov (United States)

Risk and vulnerability assessment is an important component of an effective End-to-End Tsunami Early Warning System and therefore contributes significantly to disaster risk reduction. Risk assessment is a key strategy to implement and design adequate disaster prevention and mitigation measures. The knowledge about expected tsunami hazard impacts, exposed elements, their susceptibility, coping and adaptation mechanisms is a precondition for the development of people-centred warning structures, local specific response and recovery policy planning. The developed risk assessment and its components reflect the disaster management cycle (disaster time line) and cover the early warning as well as the emergency response phase. Consequently the components hazard assessment, exposure (e.g. how many people/ critical facilities are affected?), susceptibility (e.g. are the people able to receive a tsunami warning?), coping capacity (are the people able to evacuate in time?) and recovery (are the people able to restore their livelihoods?) are addressed and quantified. Thereby the risk assessment encompasses three steps: (i) identifying the nature, location, intensity and probability of potential tsunami threats (hazard assessment); (ii) determining the existence and degree of exposure and susceptibility to those threats; and (iii) identifying the coping capacities and resources available to address or manage these threats. The paper presents results of the research work, which is conducted in the framework of the GITEWS project and the Joint Indonesian-German Working Group on Risk Modelling and Vulnerability Assessment. The assessment methodology applied follows a people-centred approach to deliver relevant risk and vulnerability information for the purposes of early warning and disaster management. The analyses are considering the entire coastal areas of Sumatra, Java and Bali facing the Sunda trench. Selected results and products like risk maps, guidelines, decision support information and other GIS products will be presented. The focus of the products is on the one hand to provide relevant risk assessment products as decision support to issue a tsunami warning within the early warning stage. On the other hand the maps and GIS products shall provide relevant information to enable local decision makers to act adequately concerning their local risks. It is shown that effective prevention and mitigation measures can be designed based on risk assessment results and information especially when used pro-active and beforehand a disaster strikes. The conducted hazard assessment provides the probability of an area to be affected by a tsunami threat divided into two ranked impact zones. The two divided impact zones directly relate to tsunami warning levels issued by the Early Warning Center and consequently enable the local decision maker to base their planning (e.g. evacuation) accordingly. Within the tsunami hazard assessment several hundred pre-computed tsunami scenarios are analysed. This is combined with statistical analysis of historical event data. Probabilities of tsunami occurrence considering probabilities of different earthquake magnitudes, occurrences of specific wave heights at coast and spatial inundation probability are computed. Hazard assessment is then combined with a comprehensive vulnerability assessment. Here deficits in e.g. people's ability to receive and understand a tsunami warning and deficits in their ability to respond adequately (evacuate on time) are quantified and are visualized for the respective coastal areas. Hereby socio-economic properties (determining peoples ability to understand a warning and to react) are combined with environmental conditions (land cover, slope, population density) to calculate the time needed to evacuate (reach a tsunami safe area derived through the hazard assessment). This is implemented using a newly developed GIS cost-distance weighting approach. For example, the amount of people affected in a certain area is dependent on expected tsunami intensity, inundated area, estimated tsuna

Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Steinmetz, T.; Mück, M.; Strunz, G.; Riedlinger, T.; Anwar, H. Z.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.

2009-04-01

98

Thermal study of payload module for the next-generation infrared space telescope SPICA in risk mitigation phase  

Science.gov (United States)

SPace Infrared telescope for Cosmology and Astrophysics (SPICA) is a pre-project of JAXA in collaboration with ESA to be launched around 2020. The SPICA is transferred into a halo orbit around the second Lagrangian point (L2) in the Sun-Earth system, which enables us to use effective radiant cooling in combination with mechanical cooling system in order to cool a 3 m large IR telescope below 6 K. At a present, a conceptional study of SPICA is underway to assess and mitigate mission's risks; the thermal study for the risk mitigation sets a goal of a 25% margin on cooling power of 4 K/1 K temperature regions, a 25% margin on the heat load from Focal Plane Instruments (FPIs) at intermediated temperature region, to enhance the reliability of the mechanical cooler system, and to enhance feasibility of ground tests. Thermal property measurements of FRP materials are also important. This paper introduces details of the thermal design study for risk mitigation, including development of the truss separation mechanism, the cryogenic radiator, mechanical cooler system, and thermal property measurements of materials.

Shinozaki, Keisuke; Sato, Yoichi; Sawada, Kenichiro; Ando, Makiko; Sugita, Hiroyuki; Yamawaki, Toshihiro; Mizutani, Tadahiro; Komatsu, Keiji; Nakagawa, Takao; Murakami, Hiroshi; Matsuhara, Hideo; Takada, Makoto; Takai, Shigeki; Okabayashi, Akinobu; Tsunematsu, Shoji; Kanao, Kenichi; Narasaki, Katsuhiro

2014-11-01

99

High-Frequency Risk Measures  

OpenAIRE

This paper proposes intraday High Frequency Risk (HFR) measures for market risk in the case of irregularly spaced high-frequency data. In this context, we distinguish three concepts of value-at-risk (VaR): the total VaR, the marginal (or per-time-unit) VaR, and the instantaneous VaR. Since the market risk is obviously related to the duration between two consecutive trades, these measures are completed with a duration risk measure, i.e., the time-at-risk (TaR). We propose a forecasting procedu...

Banulescu, Denisa Georgiana; Colletaz, Gilbert; Hurlin, Christophe; Tokpavi, Sessi

2013-01-01

100

Radon research and practice in Bulgaria - from retrospective measurements to mitigation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

An overview of ongoing directions of radon studies in the Faculty of Physics, St. Kliment Ohridski University of Sofia is presented. The focus is on: 1) Study and implementation of the polycarbonate method for measuring 222Rn. In this respect the results from laboratory and field experience with this method are summarized. Its potential for precise retrospective measurements by home stored CDs/DVDs is emphasized. 2) Surveys in radon risk areas in the country. The approaches and results in this direction are illustrated on the example of the town of Rakovski. In this town lung cancer risk is twice increased for both sexes. Significantly high 222Rn concentrations were observed in most of the houses and this can be the major factor contributing to the risk. 3) Mitigation of dwellings with high radon content. Mitigation works were recently initiated and our experience with passive radon barriers and active sub-slab depressurization systems is shared. Summarizing the results in all the three directions we conclude that there is a basis to enhance radon research and practice in the country. To be more efficient, these activities need collaboration with medical authorities, civil engineers and, especially in research, with international teams working in the field. (authors)

101

INTERNAL AUDIT AND ITS APPROACH TO THE RISK MITIGATION  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This thesis is analyzing the modern role of the internal audit in corporate(mainly banking structures. It describes the changes made in the social role ofauditing during the years and emphasizes the internal audit´s risk managementfunction, rather than just control function. Attention is given to the methodology used,especially to the currently most widespread risk-based auditing approach. Also one ofthe most recent approaches to auditing – so called continuous auditing - is brieflydescribed and the possibilities of its implementation into the risk-based framework areoutlined.

VADIM BENEŠ

2012-01-01

102

Atmospheric Effects on InSAR Measurements and Their Mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is a powerful technology for observing the Earth surface, especially for mapping the Earth's topography and deformations. InSAR measurements are however often significantly affected by the atmosphere as the radar signals propagate through the atmosphere whose state varies both in space and in time. Great efforts have been made in recent years to better understand the properties of the atmospheric effects and to develop methods for mitigating the effects. This paper provides a systematic review of the work carried out in this area. The basic principles of atmospheric effects on repeat-pass InSAR are first introduced. The studies on the properties of the atmospheric effects, including the magnitudes of the effects determined in the various parts of the world, the spectra of the atmospheric effects, the isotropic properties and the statistical distributions of the effects, are then discussed. The various methods developed for mitigating the atmospheric effects are then reviewed, including the methods that are based on PSInSAR processing, the methods that are based on interferogram modeling, and those that are based on external data such as GPS observations, ground meteorological data, and satellite data including those from the MODIS and MERIS. Two examples that use MODIS and MERIS data respectively to calibrate atmospheric effects on InSAR are also given.

Ding, Xiao-li; Li, Zhi-wei; Zhu, Jian-jun; Feng, Guang-cai; Long, Jiang-ping

2008-01-01

103

Atmospheric Effects on InSAR Measurements and Their Mitigation  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR is a powerful technology for observing the Earth surface, especially for mapping the Earth's topography and deformations. InSAR measurements are however often significantly affected by the atmosphere as the radar signals propagate through the atmosphere whose state varies both in space and in time. Great efforts have been made in recent years to better understand the properties of the atmospheric effects and to develop methods for mitigating the effects. This paper provides a systematic review of the work carried out in this area. The basic principles of atmospheric effects on repeat-pass InSAR are first introduced. The studies on the properties of the atmospheric effects, including the magnitudes of the effects determined in the various parts of the world, the spectra of the atmospheric effects, the isotropic properties and the statistical distributions of the effects, are then discussed. The various methods developed for mitigating the atmospheric effects are then reviewed, including the methods that are based on PSInSAR processing, the methods that are based on interferogram modeling, and those that are based on external data such as GPS observations, ground meteorological data, and satellite data including those from the MODIS and MERIS. Two examples that use MODIS and MERIS data respectively to calibrate atmospheric effects on InSAR are also given.

Jiang-ping Long

2008-09-01

104

INTERNAL AUDIT AND ITS APPROACH TO THE RISK MITIGATION  

OpenAIRE

This thesis is analyzing the modern role of the internal audit in corporate(mainly banking) structures. It describes the changes made in the social role ofauditing during the years and emphasizes the internal audit´s risk managementfunction, rather than just control function. Attention is given to the methodology used,especially to the currently most widespread risk-based auditing approach. Also one ofthe most recent approaches to auditing – so called continuous auditing - is brieflydescri...

VADIM BENEŠ

2012-01-01

105

Taming Trojan Horses: Identifying and Mitigating Corporate Social Responsibility Risks  

OpenAIRE

Organizations are exposed to increasing pressures from their constituents to integrate corporate social responsibility (CSR) principles into their ongoing business practices. But accepting new and potentially open-ended commitments is not a harmless exercise, and companies may well expose themselves to serious risks when embracing such principles. To identify these risks, we conducted two naturalistic studies: one exploratory, the other corroborative. The results show that CSR adoption is ass...

Heugens, P. P. M. A. R.; Dentchev, N. A.

2007-01-01

106

Information and education as a basis of risk mitigation for the citizens of Catalonia  

Science.gov (United States)

The General Directorate for Civil Protection of the Catalan Government is in charge of the drawing up and validation of plans that identify risk and establish a joint system of response actions to minimize the consequences of damages caused by emergencies. The risks covered are natural (fire, snow, flooding, heat,...) and human (chemical industry, transport of dangerous goods,...) ones. In the special case of flooding, an Emergency Flood Plan for Catalonia (INUNCAT) exists. Its aim is to minimize the effects and damages to people, property or the environment due to floods within the region of Catalonia. In the following, the actions on active prevention currently realized by Civil Protection in this Mediterranean region regarding risk mitigation of flooding are described. Special emphasis is laid on the prevention of risk situations through advanced information and education which aim at diminishing the vulnerability of the population. The preparedness of the population to face a serious flooding depends highly on the level of the citizens’ self-protection. Therefore the collection and dissemination of recommendations on adequate behaviour is crucial. The Catalan Government realizes different activities to foster the understanding and the correct behaviour of the citizens in case of flooding. Informative sessions to target groups, opinion studies, mass media communication and itinerant exhibitions are some of the elements applied to increase social consciousness and mitigate the vulnerability of the population. Among these, sensitization campaigns play a crucial role. A coherent system of information and education is adhered to these campaigns. Informative material (posters, leaflets, web sites) and sessions are part of the activities which are addressed to different social group and aim at rising the population’s awareness on the risk of flooding. Multidisciplinary presentations and expert speeches on adequate behaviour are given to stakeholders in those areas which are potentially affected by flooding or which are situated downriver of big water reservoirs. These stakeholders act as multipliers to pass on the recommendations emitted by the Catalan Government. Mass communication is a means of reaching a wide part of the population. TV spots, radio announcements and newspaper advertisements on correct behaviour in a certain emergency do already exist for certain risks, but are still missing in the case of flooding. The realization of opinion studies contribute to a better understanding of the citizens’ risk perception. The opinion study includes questions like: What do you know about recommendations on behaviour during flooding? or What would you do if you found themselves in an emergency? When contrasting the results, the effectiveness of existing campaigns is put on proof and the content and canal of future campaigns can be determined. The General Directorate for Civil Protection has created an itinerant exhibition as an additional activity to increase the populations’ consciousness on the potential risks in the Mediterranean region of Catalonia. It includes the main preventive measures the citizens have to take in case of an emergency and depicts recommendations for self-protection. The exhibition is displayed at municipal level and is designated to approach the maximum number of citizens. The participation in European projects, such as RINAMED, is a way to increase the interchange of know-how and strengthen international communication. In the case of RINAMED the objective was to provide the citizens living in the Mediterranean areas with a better knowledge of the natural risks. The joint effort of the different member regions contributed to establish a common frame of prevention and information in order to increase risk preparedness in the Mediterranean area. For future improvement and advances regarding educational and informative tasks, one of the aims is to obtain direct involvement of the population and to reach specific target groups through opinion leaders. Moreover the need to build partnership or stre

Guamis, J.; Burckhart, K.; Grau, A.

2009-09-01

107

[Guidance of FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy and enlightenment to drug risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine].  

Science.gov (United States)

The FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) aims to drugs or biological products known or potential serious risk management. Analysis with the example of the content of the Onsolis REMS named FOCOS. Our country can be reference for the analysis of relevant experience and establish a scientific evaluation mechanism, strengthen the drug risk consciousness, promote the rational drug use, organic combined with the before-marketing and post-marketing evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine, and promote the evaluation of risk management of the drug development and improvement. PMID:22292376

Li, Yuanyuan; Xie, Yanming

2011-10-01

108

Mitigating Real or Perceived Risks: A Pro-Active Approach for Dealing with Naysayers and Critics  

Science.gov (United States)

This slide presentation reviews an approach to mitigating real or perceived risks from "Naysayers" and critics in developing and using the software tools available with web 2.0. Some of the issues are about the use of the tools, the ability of management to control the use of these tools, privacy issues and the time the people spend using these tools.

Schutte, Bart; Jones, Kevin

2010-01-01

109

Risk mitigation: Planning and emergency; La gestione del rischio: Dall`emergenza al piano  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

In the last years many scholars have recognized what an important tool for risk mitigation land use planning is. Looking at risk from a planner`s perspective requires to adopt a systemic approach, according to which it`s impossible to isolate risky objects from their geographical and social environment. Furthermore a systemic approach fosters planners take into account the chains of potential failures that might affect both punctual and linear sources of damage, that is not only one risk at a time, but multiple risks which jeopardize the correct working of plants, networks, and of entire metropolitan and regional areas.

Menoni, Scira [Politecnico di Milano, Milan (Italy). Dipt. di Scienze del Territorio

1997-10-01

110

A NOVEL RISK ANALYSIS AND MITIGATION METHOD IN DISTRIBUTED BANKING SYSTEM  

OpenAIRE

The paper introduces a Fractional Reverse Banking like Distributed Banking System and the infrastructure is becoming more and more complex, and connected to large number of security issues and amount of risks to readiness assets are increasing. This is done to expand the economy by freeing up capital that can be loaned out to other parties. Most countries operate under this type of system. Hence, the process of identification, analysis, and mitigation of Information Security risks has assumed...

Kiran, K. V. D.; Reddy, L. S. S.; Seetharama Prasad, M.

2013-01-01

111

Addressing software security risk mitigations in the life cycle  

Science.gov (United States)

The NASA Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA) has funded the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) with a Center Initiative, 'Reducing Software Security Risk through an Integrated Approach' (RSSR), to address this need. The Initiative is a formal approach to addressing software security in the life cycle through the instantiation of a Software Security Assessment Instrument (SSAI) for the development and maintenance life cycles.

Gilliam, David; Powell, John; Haugh, Eric; Bishop, Matt

2003-01-01

112

Spectral Risk Measures and the Choice of Risk Aversion Function  

OpenAIRE

Spectral risk measures are attractive risk measures as they allow the user to obtain risk measures that reflect their risk-aversion functions. To date there has been very little guidance on the choice of risk-aversion functions underlying spectral risk measures. This paper addresses this issue by examining two popular risk aversion functions, based on exponential and power utility functions respectively. We find that the former yields spectral risk measures with nice intuiti...

Dowd, Kevin; Cotter, John

2011-01-01

113

Uses of risk importance measures  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Risk importance measures provide an understandable and practical way of presenting probabilistic safety analysis results which too often tend to remain abstract numbers without real insight into the content. The report clarifies the definitions, relationships and interpretations of the three most basic measures: Risk increase factor, risk decrease factor, and fractional contribution. The above three measures already cover the main types of risk importance measures. Many other importance measures presented in literature are close variants to some of these three measures. They are related in many cases so that, for a technical system considered, the two other measures can be derived from the one calculated first. However, the practical interpretations are different, and hence each three measures have their own uses and rights to existence. The fundamental aspect of importance measures is, that they express some specific influence of a basic event on the total risk. The basic failure or error events are the elements from which the reliability and risk models are constituted. The importance measures are relative, which is an advantage compared to absolute risk numbers, due to insensitivity with respect to quantification uncertainties. Therefore they are particularly adapted to give first hand guidance where to focus main interest from the system's risk and reliability point of view and wherefrom to continue the analysis with more sophisticated methods requiring more effort

114

Supply Chain Risk Management : Identification, Evaluation and Mitigation Techniques  

OpenAIRE

Supply chains have expanded rapidly over the decades, with the aim to increase productivity, lower costs and fulfil demands in emerging markets. The increasing complexity in a supply chain hinders visibility and consequently reduces one’s control over the process. Cases of disruption such as the ones faced by Ericsson and Enron, have shown that a risk event occurring at one point of the supply chain can greatly affect other members, when the disruption is not properly controlled. Supply cha...

Musa, S. Nurmaya

2012-01-01

115

Risks evaluation and mitigation in the new energetic markets  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The central issue of debate was the need to align the energy sector's options and organization with changing global patterns of economic and social development, characterized by the increasing role played by the private sector, greater integration in the world economy, and new economic and social priorities such as efficiency, decentralization, deregulation, and a closer attention to environmental issues. The aim of the work was to evaluate the Brazilian electric power market risks and the their agents' relationship after the privatization advent

116

Recommended Mitigation Measures for an Influenza Pandemic in Remote and Isolated First Nations Communities of Ontario, Canada: A Community-Based Participatory Research Approach  

OpenAIRE

Influenza pandemics disproportionately impact remote and/or isolated Indigenous communities worldwide. The differential risk experienced by such communities warrants the recommendation of specific mitigation measures. Interviewer-administered questionnaires were conducted with adult key health care informants from three remote and isolated Canadian First Nations communities of sub-Arctic Ontario. Forty-eight mitigation measures (including the setting, pandemic period, trigger, and duration) w...

Charania, Nadia A.; Js, Leonard Tsuji

2014-01-01

117

Developing high-risk scenarios and countermeasure ideas for mitigation of hazardous materials incidents  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kansas State University (KSU) conducted a comprehensive study of the development of a set of prioritized, extreme-risk scenarios, the development of a set of feasible, practical and implementable protective systems, and a report to summarize guidelines on the use of these protective systems to mitigate potential, extreme-risk situations that could occur during the transport of hazardous materials (Hazmat) on our highway system. This paper covers the methodology used to compete the first tow objectives with use of a state's panel. The research study was limited to materials (such as LNG, propane, gasoline, etc.) spilled within the highway system. It focused on potential risks which would result in severe, long-term, permanent, irreparable or catastrophic consequences, and existing technology and state-of-the-art knowledge for development of protective systems to mitigate these consequences. The protective systems within the scope of this study were systems constructed or physically incorporated into the highway system or modifications thereto

118

Transmission System Operational Risk Assessment and Mitigation  

OpenAIRE

As transmission networks are getting older and as their components are reaching their life span’s end, the number of maintenance outages for equipments reparation or replacement is destined to gradually increase in the coming years. These outages weaken system’s security and lead to highstress situations that often do not comply with N-k operation rules. Thus in-depth risk analysis have to be performed in those cases, to ensure system’s smooth operation and optimal maintenance planning....

Condez-godziemba, Cyril

2012-01-01

119

Market power mitigation by regulating contract portfolio risk  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abuse of market power by dominant generation firms is a growing concern in worldwide electricity markets. This paper argues that relying only on general competition rules-as is the case in most European countries-is insufficient and that complementary ex-ante regulation is needed. In particular, regulators should incentivize firms to sign contracts with retailers by regulating their risk exposure. In a simulation model we show that this type of regulation can significantly reduce the deadweight loss in the market, without imposing large costs on regulatees

120

An Efficient Approach towards Mitigating Soft Errors Risks  

CERN Document Server

Smaller feature size, higher clock frequency and lower power consumption are of core concerns of today's nano-technology, which has been resulted by continuous downscaling of CMOS technologies. The resultant 'device shrinking' reduces the soft error tolerance of the VLSI circuits, as very little energy is needed to change their states. Safety critical systems are very sensitive to soft errors. A bit flip due to soft error can change the value of critical variable and consequently the system control flow can completely be changed which leads to system failure. To minimize soft error risks, a novel methodology is proposed to detect and recover from soft errors considering only 'critical code blocks' and 'critical variables' rather than considering all variables and/or blocks in the whole program. The proposed method shortens space and time overhead in comparison to existing dominant approaches.

Sadi, Muhammad Sheikh; Uddin, Md Nazim; Jürjens, Jan

2011-01-01

121

Building damage classification and loss assessment for risk mitigation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The objective of this paper is to present a uniform procedure for examining and reporting building damage both in urban and in rural areas so that a data bank on earthquake effects might be established and used for the effective estimation of economic losses. Assessment of direct economic losses is illustrated by a summary presentation of earthquake damage classification performed on 16,478 residential buildings and on all 57,640 buildings damaged by the earthquake of July 26, 1963 in Skopje and April 15, 1979 in Montenegro earthquakes, respectively. Use of these methods and procedures will yield an adequate volume of data to assist community and national authorities in the elaboration and performance of effective seismic risk reduction programmes. (author). 19 refs, 6 figs, 5 tabs

122

An Efficient Approach towards Mitigating Soft Errors Risks  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Smaller feature size, higher clock frequency and lower power consumption are of core concerns of today’snano-technology, which has been resulted by continuous downscaling of CMOS technologies. The resultant‘device shrinking’ reduces the soft error tolerance of the VLSI circuits, as very little energy is needed tochange their states. Safety critical systems are very sensitive to soft errors. A bit flip due to soft error canchange the value of critical variable and consequently the system control flow can completely be changedwhich leads to system failure. To minimize soft error risks, a novel methodology is proposed to detect andrecover from soft errors considering only ‘critical code blocks’ and ‘critical variables’ rather thanconsidering all variables and/or blocks in the whole program. The proposed method shortens space andtime overhead in comparison to existing dominant approaches.

Muhammad Sheikh Sadi

2011-10-01

123

Overview of mitigation policies and measures in the forestry sector  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

In this paper the author addresses questions on how the forestry sector can make a contribution to the general problem of greenhouse gases in the environment. Primarily this is in the form of carbon conservation and sequestering. There is a potential land area for conservation and sequestration estimated to be 700 Mha. The total carbon that could be sequestered and conserved globally by 2050 on this land is 60 - 87 GtC. Slowing deforestation, assisting regeneration, forestation and agroforestry are the primary mitigation measures for carbon conservation and sequestration. For long term success, enforcement to halt deforestation has to be accompained by economic and/or other benefits to the deforesters that equal or exceed their current remuneration. Making plantations a significant fuel for utility electricity generation will require higher biomass yields and thermal efficiency matching that of conventional plants. Significant reduction of global carbon emissions requires national governments to institute measures that provide local, national, economic and other benefits while conserving and sequestering carbon.

Sathaye, J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab., CA (United States)

1996-12-31

124

30 CFR 250.254 - What mitigation measures information must accompany the DPP or DOCD?  

Science.gov (United States)

...mitigation measures information must accompany the DPP or DOCD? 250.254 Section 250.254...Contents of Development and Production Plans (dpp) and Development Operations Coordination...mitigation measures information must accompany the DPP or DOCD? (a) If you propose...

2010-07-01

125

Tychastic measure of viability risk  

CERN Document Server

This book presents a forecasting mechanism of the price intervals for deriving the SCR (solvency capital requirement) eradicating the risk during the exercise period on one hand, and measuring the risk by computing the hedging exit time function associating with smaller investments the date until which the value of the portfolio hedges the liabilities on the other. This information, summarized under the term “tychastic viability measure of risk” is an evolutionary alternative to statistical measures, when dealing with evolutions under uncertainty. The book is written by experts in the field and the target audience primarily comprises research experts and practitioners.

Aubin, Jean-Pierre; Dordan, Olivier

2014-01-01

126

RISK MANAGEMENT MEASURES IN CMMI  

OpenAIRE

Risk management is a continuous process that could endanger the objectives of a project or application.Risks are handled to reduce and avoid threats effects on the objectives of the project. The sources of riskare both internal and external to the project. This research will identify general measures for the specificgoal and its specific practices of Risk Management Process Area (PA) in Capability Maturity ModelIntegration (CMMI). CMMI is developed by Software Engineering Institute (SEI) in C...

Mahmoud Khraiwesh

2012-01-01

127

Airflow measurement techniques applied to radon mitigation problems  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

During the past decade a multitude of diagnostic procedures associated with the evaluation of air infiltration and air leakage sites have been developed. The spirit of international cooperation and exchange of ideas within the AIC-AIVC conferences has greatly facilitated the adoption and use of these measurement techniques in the countries participating in Annex V. But wide application of such diagnostic methods are not limited to air infiltration alone. The subject of this paper concerns the ways to evaluate and improve radon reduction in buildings using diagnostic methods directly related to developments familiar to the AIVC. Radon problems are certainly not unique to the United States, and the methods described here have to a degree been applied by researchers of other countries faced with similar problems. The radon problem involves more than a harmful pollutant of the living spaces of our buildings -- it also involves energy to operate radon removal equipment and the loss of interior conditioned air as a direct result. The techniques used for air infiltration evaluation will be shown to be very useful in dealing with the radon mitigation challenge. 10 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab

128

50 CFR 665.815 - Pelagic longline seabird mitigation measures.  

Science.gov (United States)

...Fisheries FISHERY CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT...Seabird mitigation techniques. When deep-setting...albatross handling techniques. If a short-tailed...give the bird food or water; and (11) Complete...albatross seabird handling techniques. If a seabird...

2010-10-01

129

Outreach Programs, Peer Pressure, and Common Sense: What Motivates Homeowners to Mitigate Wildfire Risk?  

Science.gov (United States)

In recent years, altered forest conditions, climate change, and the increasing numbers of homes built in fire prone areas has meant that wildfires are affecting more people. An important part of minimizing the potential negative impacts of wildfire is engaging homeowners in mitigating the fire hazard on their land. It is therefore important to understand what makes homeowners more or less willing to take action. The research presented here comes from a study that interviewed a total of 198 homeowners in six communities in the western United States about the activities they had undertaken to mitigate their fire risk, the factors that contributed to their decisions, and their future intentions. The current paper reports on findings from the first half of the longitudinal study, after 3 years we will return to interview the current homeowner on the same properties to assess maintenance actions and facilitating and limiting factors. Overall we found a body of individuals who understand the fire risk, are taking numerous mitigation actions, and think that these actions have reduced their risk. These homeowners typically did not expect the government to do it for them: they wanted information about what to do and, in some cases, assistance with the work, but saw taking care of their property primarily as their responsibility. Responses also show that key information sources and motivating factors vary by location and that it is not inherently necessary to have relationships between community members to create defensible space.

McCaffrey, Sarah M.; Stidham, Melanie; Toman, Eric; Shindler, Bruce

2011-09-01

130

Outcomes measures and risk adjustment  

OpenAIRE

This paper reviews the field of outcomes measurement in anesthesia and surgery, emphasizing those outcomes that may be influenced by perioperative care. Data sources for outcomes measurement are described, and the concept of risk adjustment is introduced. The basic mechanics of outcomes measurement and its pitfalls are explained. Finally, specific perioperative outcomes - mortality, readmission and composite outcomes - are described and their limitations are considered.

Lane-fall, Meghan B.; Neuman, Mark D.

2013-01-01

131

Thailand's Low-Carbon Scenario 2050: The AIM/CGE analyses of CO2 mitigation measures  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Climate change and CO2 mitigation have become increasingly important environmental issues. Recently Thailand has proposed policies on GHG mitigation such as Thailand’s Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA), which aims at GHG mitigation in the energy sector. This study used the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, called “AIM/CGE” model, to analyse GHG mitigation measures under emission trading and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology in Thailand. Results show that the international free emission trading policy can drive more GHG reduction by decreasing energy supply and demand, and increasing prices of emissions. The CCS technologies would balance emission reduction but they would reduce energy efficiency improvement and renewable energy utilization. In the energy security aspect, the policy options in this study would improve energy security, energy import dependency, and co-benefits of GHG mitigation in forms of improving local air quality. Results are also helpful to GHG mitigation policy in developing countries. -- Highlights: •A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was used to analyze GHG mitigation policies in Thailand. •The CCS and emission trading will increase GHG mitigation in Thailand. •The 30% GHG mitigation target with 50% emission trading will give the best result in GDP. •The share of biomass resource and energy efficiency will decrease with CCS. •The emission trading will play an important role in decreasing fossil consumption and increasing renewable energy utilization

132

Uncertainty Quantification and Risk Mitigation of CO2 Leakage in Groundwater Aquifers  

Science.gov (United States)

The risk of CO2 leakage into shallow aquifers through various pathways such as faults and abandoned wells is a concern of CO2 geological sequestration. If a leak is detected in an aquifer system, a contingency plan is required to manage the CO2 storage and to protect the groundwater source. Among many remediation and mitigation strategies, the simplest is to stop CO2 leakage at a wellbore. Therefore, it is necessary to address whether and when the CO2 leaks should be sealed, and how much risk can be mitigated. In the presence of various uncertainties, including geological-structure uncertainty and parametric uncertainty, the risk of CO2 leakage into an aquifer needs to be assessed with probabilistic distributions of uncertain parameters. In this study, we developed an integrated model to simulate multiphase flow of CO2 and brine in a deep storage reservoir, through a leaky well at an uncertain location, and subsequently multicomponent reactive transport in a shallow aquifer. Each sub-model covers its domain-specific physics. Uncertainties of geological structure and parameters are considered together with decision variables (CO2 injection rate and mitigation time) for risk assessment of leakage-impacted aquifer volume. High-resolution and less-expensive reduced-order models (ROMs) of risk profiles are approximated as polynomial functions of decision variables and all uncertain parameters. These reduced-order models are then used in the place of computationally-expensive numerical models for future decision-making on if and when the leaky well is sealed. The tradeoff between CO2 storage capacity in the reservoir and the leakage-induced risk in the aquifer is evaluated. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Sun, Y.; Tong, C.; Mansoor, K.; Carroll, S.

2013-12-01

133

SILER: Seismic-Initiated events risk mitigation in Lead-cooled Reactors  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

SILER is a Collaborative Project, partially funded by the European Commission, aimed at studying the risk associated to seismic initiated events in Generation IV Heavy Liquid Metal reactors and developing adequate protection measures. The attention is focused on the evaluation of the effects of earthquakes (with particular regards to beyond design seismic events) and to the identification of mitigation strategies, acting both on structures and components design (as well as on the development of seismic isolation devices) which can also have positive effects on economics, leading to an high level of plant design standardization. Attention is also devoted to the identification of plant layout solutions able to avoid risks of radioactive release from both the core and other structures (i.e. the spent fuel storage pools). Specific effort is paid to the development of guidelines and design recommendations for addressing the seismic issue in next generation reactor systems. In addition, consideration will be devoted to transfer the knowledge developed in the project to Generation III advanced systems, in line with the objective of the SNE-TP SRA to support present and future Light Water Reactors and their further development, for which safety issues are key aspects to be addressed. Note, in this respect, that the benefits of base isolation in terms of response to design seismic actions are already widely recognized for Generation III LWRs, along with the possibility of a siI LWRs, along with the possibility of a significant standardization of structural and equipment design. SILER activities started on October 1 st 2011 and are carried out by 18 partners: ENEA (Italy, Coordinator), AREVA NP SAS (France), SCK-CEN (Belgium), FIP Industriale (Italy), MAURER SOHENE (Germany), EC-JRC (Ispra (Italy)), SINTEC (Italy), KTH (Sweden), BOA-BKT (Germany), IDOM (Spain), ANSALDO (Italy), IPUL (Latvia), NUMERIA (Italy), VCE (Austria), SRS (Italy), CEA (France), EA (Spain), NUVIA (France). (authors)

134

Current issues in dietary acrylamide:formation,mitigation and risk assessment  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Acrylamide (AA) is known as a neurotoxin in humans and it is classified as a probable human carcinogen by the International Agency of Research on Cancer. AA is produced as by-product of the Maillard reaction in starchy foods processed at high temperatures (>120 °C). This review includes the investigation of AA precursors, mechanisms of AA formation and AA mitigation technologies in potato, cereal and coffee products. Additionally, most relevant issues of AA risk assessment are discussed. New technologies tested from laboratory to industrial scale face, as a major challenge, the reduction of AA content of browned food, while still maintaining its attractive organoleptic properties. Reducing sugars such as glucose and fructose are the major contributors to AA in potato-based products. On the other hand, the limiting substrate of AA formation in cereals and coffee is the free amino acid asparagine. For some products the addition of glycine or asparaginase reduces AA formation during baking. Since, for potatoes, the limiting substrate is reducing sugars, increases in sugar content in potatoes during storage then introduce some difficulties and potentially quite large variations in the AA content of the final product. Sugars in potatoes may be reduced by blanching. Levels of AA in different foods show large variations and no general upper limit is easily applicable, since some formation will always occur. Current policy is that practical measures should be taken voluntarily to reduce AA formation in vulnerable foods since AA is considered a health risk at the concentrations found in foods. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

Pedreschi, F.; Salome Mariotti, M.

2014-01-01

135

Short-term Reservoir Optimization by Stochastic Optimization for Mitigation Downstream Flood Risks  

Science.gov (United States)

An important objective of the operation of multi-purpose reservoirs is the mitigation of flood risks in downstream river reaches. Under the assumptions of reservoirs with finite storage capacities, a key factor for its effective use during flood events is the proper timing of detention measures under consideration of forecast uncertainty. Operational flow forecasting systems support this task by providing deterministic or probabilistic inflow forecasts and decision support components for assessing optimum release strategies. We focus on the decision support component and propose a deterministic optimization and its extension to stochastic optimization procedures based on the non-adaptive Sample Average Approximation (SAA) approach and an adaptive multi-stage stochastic optimization with underlying scenario trees. These techniques are used to compute release trajectories of the reservoirs over a finite forecast horizon of up to 14 days by integrating a nonlinear gradient-based optimization algorithm and a model of the water system. The latter consists of simulation components for pool routing and kinematic or diffusive wave models for the downstream river reaches including a simulation mode and a reverse adjoint mode for the efficient computation of first-order derivatives. The framework has been implemented for a reservoir system operated by the Brazilian Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais S.A. (CEMIG). We present results obtained for the operation of the Três Marias reservoir in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais with a catchment area of near 55,000 km2, an installed capacity of 396 MW and operation restrictions due to downstream flood risk. The focus of our discussion is the impact of sparsely available ground data, forecast uncertainty and its consideration in the optimization procedure. We compare the performance of the above mentioned optimization techniques and conclude the superiority of the stochastic methods.

Schwanenberg, Dirk; Assis Dos Reis, Alberto; Kuwajima, Julio; Alvarado Montero, Rodolfo; Mainardi Fan, Fernando

2014-05-01

136

30 CFR 250.223 - What mitigation measures information must accompany the EP?  

Science.gov (United States)

...measures information must accompany the EP? 250.223 Section 250.223 Mineral...Information Contents of Exploration Plans (ep) § 250.223 What mitigation measures information must accompany the EP? (a) If you propose to use...

2010-07-01

137

Landslide risk mitigation through integrated monitoring and modelling  

Science.gov (United States)

In winter 2008-09, exceptional prolonged rains triggered numerous landslides in Calabria (southern Italy). Among these, a large rock slide was triggered on 28 January 2009 in weathered metamorphic rocks at San Benedetto Ullano (CS), involving fractured and altered migmatitic gneiss and biotitic schist. A detailed geomorphological survey was carried out during the entire phase of mobilization, allowing to recognize the evolution of the phenomenon. A series of benchmarks was promptly placed in correspondence of fractures on the body and along the sides of the landslide, allowing for frequent measurements of surface movements. In addition, a network of real-time monitoring extensometers were implemented at the surface of the landslide, combined with a meteorological station. The survey site and the data of the monitoring system allowed, from the early stages of activation of the phenomenon, to implement a support system to handle the emergency. In the following months, a clear retrogressive distribution could be identified, coupled with a tendency towards the enlargement of the flanks. In early May, the first crisis ended up. After the arrest of the phenomenon, a geological-technical scheme of the slope could be drawn, also based on data collected through a set of 5 exploratory wells (equipped with 4 inclinometers and 1 piezometer). The landslide mobilized a thickness from 15 to 35 meters along the longitudinal profile. To examine the stability of the slope affected by the landslide, and to quantify the role of fluctuations of the water table in destabilizing the slope, a parametric limit equilibrium analysis was conducted. The analysis confirmed the first interpretation of the process: the first activation of the landslide was expected, in fact, in the central portion of the slope in case, in the same area, the groundwater levels are close to ground level. Between 31 January 31 and 1 February 2010, following a further period of exceptional rainfall, the network of strain gauges promptly evicenced the beginning of a new phase of mobilization of the landslide, accompanied by the opening of cracks along the local and provincial roads. On 10 February, the slope movement led the Civil Protection Authority to issue new evacuation orders and closing the roads. On 11 February, following further rains, a further movement of the landslide body occurred, with severe damage to roads and infrastructure. Overall, this new phase of activation replied the one observed during the crisis started in January 2009, confirming the results of the limit equilibrium analysis. Based on the results of the parametric analysis, the surveillance system could be refined, thanks to a better understanding of the physics of the slope instability. The limit equilibrium analysis was followed by the calibration of a hydrological model, thanks to the availability of dates of activation of the landslide and of rains recorded in the vicinity of the study area. The latest activation of the slope instability took place during the night between 15 and 16 March 2013, again confirming the results of the limit equilibrium analysis and of the hydrological model "SAKe". It should be noted that this activation occurred as a result of rain amounts that are less abundant and prolonged than those of the previous two activations, despite the realization of some engineering works and drainages had been started in the study area to improve slope stability. Further works are still to be made, and a refinement of the stability analyses is in progress to understand the apparent increasing fragility of the considered slope.

Terranova, Oreste Giuseppe; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Iovine, Giulio G. R.

2014-05-01

138

EPA (ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY) PROGRAM TO DEMONSTRATE MITIGATION MEASURES FOR INDOOR RADON: INITIAL RESULTS  

Science.gov (United States)

The paper gives initial results of an EPA program to demonstrate mitigation measures for indoor radon. EPA has installed radon mitigation techniques in 18 concrete block basement homes in the Reading Prong area of eastern Pennsylvania, all designed to demonstrate techniques which...

139

Flood risk and mitigation strategies in the southeastern suburbs of Fez City (Morocco  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The risk of flooding in the south-eastern suburbs of Fez (Morocco was engendered by multiple factors (topographic, hydro-climatic, land use, social, technical. This study focuses on the Aouinate El Hajjaj district and shows that the district’s evolution, characterized by informal transactions (speculation, land squatting, construction without respect of norms and regulations was a major factor in the genesis of flood risk as the district extended into vulnerable sectors. Public efforts to resolve the district’s crisis and reinforce its environmental safety began in 1993 (2 dams and channels were constructed, street were paved and basic facilities were provided, such as drinking water, sanitation and electricity, but the risk factors persist. Technical solutions are locally recognized to be useful, but they are not sufficient. Other mitigating actions including the reduction of physical and socioeconomic vulnerability and the strengthening of the social structure of the community should be considered in a systemic point of view. They constitute elements of an alternative strategy in urban planning and development and must be framed by laws and regulations. Their use could be undertaken at individual, community and State levels depending on the specific dimension of each measure. A vision which integrates local and regional scales is essential in risk studies, in order to design a more sustainable action. The role of non-governmental organisations is important in flood mitigation and urban environmental policy. The incorporation of flood prevention as a parameter of urban planning should be considered by planners and the local population.En los suburbios del sudeste de Fez (Marruecos el riesgo de inundaciones responde a fenómenos de diversa naturaleza física y humana (topográficos, hidrológicos, climáticos, utilización del suelo, factores sociales y técnicos. En este trabajo se analiza la situación del distrito de Aouinate El Hajjaj, en donde diferentes procesos derivados de la ocupación de este espacio (especulación, proliferación de asentamientos informales, edificación sin respeto a las normas y reglamentos… han constituido factores decisivos en la génesis de los riesgos de inundación que actualmente afectan a la zona. Aunque los esfuerzos públicos para resolver la crisis del distrito y reforzar su seguridad frente a las adversidades del medio natural comenzaron en 1993 (construcción de dos presas y de canales, pavimentado de calles, dotación y mejora de los equipamientos básicos como el abastecimiento de agua potable y de electricidad, obras de saneamiento, etc., los factores de riesgo aún persisten. Las soluciones técnicas aplicadas han sido reconocidas por su utilidad, pero es necesario trabajar en otros ámbitos, como la reducción de la vulnerabilidad física, social y ambiental, y en el reforzamiento de la estructura social de la comunidad, lo que permitiría abordar el problema desde un punto de vista sistémico. Todos ellos constituyen los elementos de una estrategia alternativa en la planificación y el desarrollo urbano que deben ser enmarcadas por leyes y reglamentos. Su uso podría llevarse a cabo a nivel individual, comunitario y estatal —en función de la dimensión específica de cada caso—, con el fin de fomentar una estrategia de integración entre las escalas locales y regionales que contribuya a concebir acciones más sostenibles en los estudios de mitigación de los riesgos ambientales. Así mismo, el papel de las organizaciones no gubernamentales es importante en esta cuestión, y la política medioambiental, las acciones de los diferentes agentes que intervienen en el planeamiento urbano y la población local, deben estar sensibilizados y comprometidos con las estrategias para la prevención de inundaciones. [fr] Le risque d’inondation dans les banlieues du Sud-Est de la ville de Fez (Maroc sont produits par des facteurs multiples (topographiques, hydro-climatiques, relatifs aux usages du sol, sociaux, techniques. L’étude vise le district d’A

Akdim, Brahim

2013-12-01

140

Soil bio-engineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on authochtonal plants suitable for this kind of works and on economic efficiency is essential for the divulgation of such techniques. The present paper is focused on this two issues related to the realization of various typologies of soil bio-engineering works in the humid tropic of Nicaragua.



In the area of Río Blanco, located in the Department of Matagalpa, soil bio-engineering installations were built in several sites. The particular structures built were: drainages with live fascine mattress, a live palisade, a vegetated live crib wall for riverbank protection, a vegetative covering made of a metallic net and biotextile coupled with a live palisade made of bamboo. In order to evaluate the suitability of the various plants used in the works, monitorings were performed, one in the live palisade alongside an unpaved road and the other on the live crib wall along a riverbank, collecting survival rate and morphological parameters data. Concerning the economic efficiency we proceed to a financial analysis of the works and once the unit price was obtained, we converted the amount in EPP Dollars (Equal Purchasing Power in order to compare the Nicaraguan context with the Italian one.



Among the used species we found that Madero negro (Gliricidia sepium and Roble macuelizo (Tabebuia rosea are adequate for soil-bioengineering measure on slopes while Helequeme (Erythrina fusca reported a successful behaviour only in the crib wall for riverbank protection.



In the comparison of the costs in Nicaragua and in Italy, the unit price reduction for the Central American country ranges between 1.5 times (for the vegetative covering and almost 4 times (for the fascine mattress if it's used the EPP dollar exchange rate.



Conclusions are reached with regard to hydrological-risk mitigating actions performed on a basin scale and through naturalistic (live interventions: not only are they socially and technically attainable, even in hardship areas (by maximizing the contribution of the local labor force and minimizing the use of mechanical equipment, but they are also economically sustainable.

A. Petrone

2009-07-01

141

Soil bioengineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on the autochthonal plants suitable for these kinds of interventions and on the economic efficiency of the interventions is essential for the dissemination of such techniques. The present paper is focused on these two issues as related to the realization of various typologies of soil bioengineering works in the humid tropics of Nicaragua.

In the area of Río Blanco, located in the Department of Matagalpa, soil bioengineering installations were built in several sites. The particular structures built were: drainages with live fascine mattress, a live palisade, a vegetated live crib wall for riverbank protection, a vegetative covering made of a metallic net and biotextile coupled with a live palisade made of bamboo. In order to evaluate the suitability of the various plants used in these works, monitoring was performed, one on the live palisade alongside an unpaved road and the other on the live crib wall along a riverbank, by collecting data on survival rate and morphological parameters. Concerning economic efficiency, we proceeded to a financial analysis of the works. Once the unit price was obtained, we converted the amount into EPP Dollars (Equal Purchasing Power in order to compare the Nicaraguan context with the European one.

Among the species used we found that Gliricidia sepium (local common name: Madero negro and Tabebuia rosea (local common name: Roble macuelizo are adequate for soil bioengineering measures on slopes, while Erythrina fusca (local common name: Helequeme resulted in successful behaviour only in the crib wall for riverbank protection.

In comparing costs in Nicaragua and in Italy, the unit price reduction for Nicaragua ranges from 1.5 times (for the vegetative covering to almost 4 times (for the fascine mattress, using the EPP dollar exchange rate.

Our conclusions with regard to hydrological-risk mitigating actions performed on a basin scale and through naturalistic (live interventions are that they are not only socially and technically possible, even in hardship areas (by maximizing the contribution of the local labour force and minimizing the use of mechanical equipment, but also economically sustainable.

A. Petrone

2010-02-01

142

PROPUESTA METODOLÓGICA PARA PRIORIZAR ÁREAS CON AMENAZA POR CAÍDA DE ROCAS EN ENTORNOS URBANOS, COMO BASE PARA EL REORDENAMIENTO URBANO Y LA MITIGACIÓN DEL RIESGO / METHODOLOGICAL SUGGESTION FOR PRIORITY ROCK FALL HAZARD URBAN AREAS, FOR THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES INTEGRATED SET OF URBAN REORGANIZATION MEASURES AIMED AT THE MITIGATION OF THE ROCK FALL RELATED RISK.  

Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

Full Text Available Este artículo describe una metodología cualitativa, para evaluar un índice de riesgo físico por caída de rocas a escala detallada (1:1000). Se realiza una cartografía detallada de las áreas de salida de bloques, depósitos de talud y geomorfología. Los depósitos de talud son indicadores de la frecuen [...] cia y distribución espacial del fenómeno de caída de rocas y su relación con las áreas fuente, donde se hizo una detallada clasificación de los bloques potencialmente inestables. El resultado final es la definición de los "corredores de tránsito" y su correspondiente clasificación en las categorías bajo, medio o alto índice de amenaza. Abstract in english This paper describes a qualitative methodology for the assessment of rock fall physical risk index at large-scale (1:1000). Through a detailed geologic and geomorphological survey both rock fall deposits and rock fall sources are identified and mapped. Analysis of the rock fall deposits give indicat [...] ions over the temporal frequency and spatial distribution of the phenomenon and point out the most active areas. Rock fall sources are meticulously studied and individual rock blocks are classified based on its potential instability. The final product is a definition of the rock's “transit corridors” and their corresponding classification, concerning the rock fall hazard index, using the heuristically defined categories of low, moderate and high hazard. Hazard index is estimated as lineal function of main variables, whose values (numeric indexes) are ground together in three categories: high, moderate, and low. Physical vulnerability index to each “transit corridor” is assessed based on the number of people and dwellings. Finally, physical risk index to every “transit corridor” is obtained crossing hazard index and vulnerability index data. The risk assessment results allowed the local authorities to carry out an integrated set of urban reorganization measures aimed at the mitigation of the rock fall related risk.

ALBEIRO DE JESÚS, RENDÓN RIVERA; RUBEN DARIO, VARGAS FRANCO; ALBERTO, ARIAS LÓPEZ.

2007-11-01

143

Experimental study designs to improve the evaluation of road mitigation measures for wildlife.  

Science.gov (United States)

An experimental approach to road mitigation that maximizes inferential power is essential to ensure that mitigation is both ecologically-effective and cost-effective. Here, we set out the need for and standards of using an experimental approach to road mitigation, in order to improve knowledge of the influence of mitigation measures on wildlife populations. We point out two key areas that need to be considered when conducting mitigation experiments. First, researchers need to get involved at the earliest stage of the road or mitigation project to ensure the necessary planning and funds are available for conducting a high quality experiment. Second, experimentation will generate new knowledge about the parameters that influence mitigation effectiveness, which ultimately allows better prediction for future road mitigation projects. We identify seven key questions about mitigation structures (i.e., wildlife crossing structures and fencing) that remain largely or entirely unanswered at the population-level: (1) Does a given crossing structure work? What type and size of crossing structures should we use? (2) How many crossing structures should we build? (3) Is it more effective to install a small number of large-sized crossing structures or a large number of small-sized crossing structures? (4) How much barrier fencing is needed for a given length of road? (5) Do we need funnel fencing to lead animals to crossing structures, and how long does such fencing have to be? (6) How should we manage/manipulate the environment in the area around the crossing structures and fencing? (7) Where should we place crossing structures and barrier fencing? We provide experimental approaches to answering each of them using example Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) study designs for two stages in the road/mitigation project where researchers may become involved: (1) at the beginning of a road/mitigation project, and (2) after the mitigation has been constructed; highlighting real case studies when available. PMID:25704749

Rytwinski, Trina; van der Ree, Rodney; Cunnington, Glenn M; Fahrig, Lenore; Findlay, C Scott; Houlahan, Jeff; Jaeger, Jochen A G; Soanes, Kylie; van der Grift, Edgar A

2015-05-01

144

Managing soil natural capital: An effective strategy for mitigating future agricultural risks?  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Uncontrollable events such as adverse weather and volatile prices present considerable risks for arable farmers. Soil natural capital, which views the capacity of soil biodiversity to generate ecosystem services as a component of farm capital, could be important for the stability and resilience of arable production systems. We investigate therefore whether managing soil natural capital could be an effective strategy for mitigating future agricultural risks. We do this by constructing a dynamic stochastic portfolio model to optimize the stock of soil organic carbon (SOC)—our indicator of soil natural capital—when considering both the risks and returns from farming. SOC is controlled via the spatial and temporal allocation of cash crops and an illustrative replenishing land use. We find that higher soil natural capital buffers yield variance against adverse weather and reduces reliance on external inputs. Managing soil natural capital has therefore the potential to mitigate two serious agricultural risks: energy price shocks and adverse weather events, both of which are likely to be exacerbated in the future due to, e.g., globalization and climate change.

Cong, Ronggang; Hedlund, Katarina

2014-01-01

145

Assuring safety of inherently unsafe medications: the FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategies.  

Science.gov (United States)

The decision to approve a drug for clinical use is based on an understanding of its benefits versus the risks. Although efficacy is generally understood at the time of submission to the FDA for approval, the risks are more difficult to assess. Both PubMed (from 2000 to 2012) and the FDA website (www.fda.gov) were searched using the search terms "risk evaluation and mitigation strategy" (REMS). Articles for review were selected by relevance to topic, and their references were searched as well for additional relevant resources. Since the search results were not expected to contain research studies, formal quality assessment and inclusion and exclusion criteria were not utilized resulting in a narrative review. Few directly relevant research studies exist, although supporting documents such as government reports were available. For effective drugs with unclear or concerning safety records, the FDA has the option of requiring a risk evaluation and mitigation strategy, which allows a systematic approach to track and assure safe medication use. Over 100 different medications are currently covered by REMS, and each REMS is developed individually based on the needs of the specific drug or class. Although likely associated with improvements in medication safety, the potential benefit, limitations, and consequences of REMS are not yet fully understood. PMID:24414251

Nelson, Lewis S; Loh, Meredith; Perrone, Jeanmarie

2014-06-01

146

Assessing and mitigating risks of engineering programs with lean management techniques  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

This paper investigates the use of lean management techniques as a risk mitigation approach for large-scale engineering programs. The key research questions are how lean best practices with the highest risk mitigation potential are identified, how the most relevant lean best practices for a specific program are identified and how the effort for implementation of these lean best practices is estimated. Large-scale engineering programs have as results usually complex technical products or systems such as airplanes, satellites (GPS) or software programs, immense infrastructure efforts like the construction of a new airport, highway or bridge, or combine elements of both technology and infrastructure. The benefits they deliver are therefore immense and sometimes even groundbreaking, defining new levels of capabilities. But their sheer size and the built-in complexity also manifest themselves in higher risks, which can lead to significant cost-overruns and large delays in schedule [Oehmen et al. 2012, Cantarelli et al. 2010, Flyvbjerg et al. 2003, GAO 2006]. Program success depends on four dimensions: delivery capability, organizational capability, marketing capability and innovative capability [Shao and Müller 2011, Shao et al. 2012]. To incorporate these capabilities and to manage the obviously difficult entity of a program, a variety of standards and guidance books have been published. The two most prominent ones are Managing Successful Programs (MSP) and The Standard for Program Management by the Project Management Institute (PMI), that both include Risk Management as a focal activity [MSP 2011, PMI 2013].

Fritz, A.; Oehmen, Josef

2014-01-01

147

Risk evaluation and mitigation strategy programs in solid organ transplantation: the promises of information technology.  

Science.gov (United States)

Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) required by the Food and Drug Administration are implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with medications and to ensure ongoing safe use throughout the life of a pharmaceutical agent. Healthcare organizations have begun to adopt information technologies with clinical decision support (CDS) to ensure safe use of medications. Systems have been expanded and customized to also ensure compliance with regulatory standards. End users who are unfamiliar with particular medication use provisions are at risk of unknowingly inappropriately fulfilling specific components. Institution-specific customization of vendor-provided CDS is useful to enhance provider awareness and ensure compliance with standards. Integration of health information technology systems to fulfill REMS requirements is novel and important to ensure consistency as healthcare standards evolve. PMID:24573422

Tsapepas, Demetra S; McKeen, Jaclyn T; Martin, Spencer T; Walker-McDermott, Jennifer K; Yang, Alex; Hirsch, Jamie; Mohan, Sumit; Tiwari, Ruchi

2014-10-01

148

Comparing downside risk measures for heavy tailed  

OpenAIRE

In this paper we study some prominent downside risk measures for heavy tailed distribution. Using the notion of regular variation to define heavy tailed distributions we provide approximations of the risk measures in the tail region. We show that the downside risk measures produce similar and consistent ranking of risk. However, Expected Shortfall may not always distinguish between the differing risk levels of assets.

Danielsson, J.; Jorgensen, B. N.; Sarma, M.; Vries, C. G.

2006-01-01

149

Observational Studies of Earthquake Preparation and Generation to Mitigate Seismic Risks in Mines  

Science.gov (United States)

We provide a status report on a 5-year project to monitor in-situ fault instability and strong motion in South African gold mines. The project has two main aims: (1) To learn more about earthquake preparation and generation mechanisms by deploying dense arrays of high-sensitivity sensors within rock volumes where mining is likely to induce significant seismic activity. (2) To upgrade the South African national surface seismic network in the mining districts. This knowledge will contribute to efforts to upgrade schemes of seismic hazard assessment and to limit and mitigate the seismic risks in deep mines. As of 31 July 2011, 46 boreholes totalling 1.9 km in length had been drilled at project sites at Ezulwini, Moab-Khotsong and Driefontein gold mines. Several dozen more holes are still to be drilled. Acoustic emission sensors, strain- and tiltmeters, and controlled seismic sources are being installed to monitor the deformation of the rock mass, the accumulation of damage during the preparation phase, and changes in dynamic stress as the rupture front propagates. These data will be integrated with measurements of stope closure, stope strong motion, seismic data recorded by the mine-wide network, and stress modelling. Preliminary results will be reported at AGU meeting. The project is endorsed by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST), Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and the South African government. It is funded by the JST-JICA program for Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable development (SATREPS, the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), the Council for Geoscience, the University of the Witwatersrand and the Department of Science and Technology. The contributions of Seismogen CC, OHMS Ltd, AnglogoldAshanti Rock Engineering Applied Research Group, First Uranium, the Gold Fields Seismic Department and the Institute of Mine Seismology are gratefully acknowledged.

Durrheim, R. J.; Ogasawara, H.; Nakatani, M.; Milev, A.; Cichowicz, A.; Kawakata, H.; Yabe, Y.; Murakami, O.; Naoi, M. M.; Moriya, H.; Satoh, T.

2011-12-01

150

Reactions to children's transgressions in at-risk caregivers: does mitigating information, type of transgression, or caregiver directive matter?  

Science.gov (United States)

This study examined whether caregivers who exhibit high risk for child physical abuse differ from low-risk caregivers in reactions to transgressing children. Caregivers read vignettes describing child transgressions. These vignettes varied in: (a) the type of transgression described (moral, conventional, personal), (b) presentation of transgression-mitigating information (present, absent), and (c) whether a directive to avoid the transgression was in the vignette (yes, no). After reading each vignette, caregivers provided ratings reflecting their: (a) perceptions of transgression wrongness, (b) internal attributions about the transgressing child, (c) perceptions of the transgressing child's hostile intent, (d) own expected negative post-transgression affect, and (e) perceived likelihood of responding to the transgression with discipline that displayed power assertion and/or induction. For moral transgressions (cruelty, dishonesty, hostility, or greed), mitigating information reduced caregiver expectations that they would feel negative affect and, subsequent to the transgression, use disciplinary strategies that display power assertion. These mitigating effects were smaller among at-risk caregivers than among low-risk caregivers. Moreover, when transgressions disobeyed a directive, among low-risk caregivers, mitigating information reduced the expectation that responses to transgressions would include inductive disciplinary strategies, but it did not do so among at-risk caregivers. In certain circumstances, compared to low-risk caregivers, at-risk caregivers expect to be relatively unaffected by transgression-mitigating information. These results suggest that interventions that increase an at-risk caregiver's ability to properly assess and integrate mitigating information may play a role in reducing the caregiver's risk of child physical abuse. PMID:24075063

Irwin, Lauren M; Skowronski, John J; Crouch, Julie L; Milner, Joel S; Zengel, Bettina

2014-05-01

151

Maneuver Planning for Conjunction Risk Mitigation with Ground-track Control Requirements  

Science.gov (United States)

The planning of conjunction Risk Mitigation Maneuvers (RMM) in the presence of ground-track control requirements is analyzed. Past RMM planning efforts on the Aqua, Aura, and Terra spacecraft have demonstrated that only small maneuvers are available when ground-track control requirements are maintained. Assuming small maneuvers, analytical expressions for the effect of a given maneuver on conjunction geometry are derived. The analytical expressions are used to generate a large trade space for initial RMM design. This trade space represents a significant improvement in initial maneuver planning over existing methods that employ high fidelity maneuver models and propagation.

McKinley, David

2008-01-01

152

Risk mitigation of shared electronic records system in campus institutions: medical social work practice in singapore.  

Science.gov (United States)

In 2013, the Singapore General Hospital (SGH) Campus initiated a shared electronic system where patient records and documentations were standardized and shared across institutions within the Campus. The project was initiated to enhance quality of health care, improve accessibility, and ensure integrated (as opposed to fragmented) care for best outcomes in our patients. In mitigating the risks of ICT, it was found that familiarity with guiding ethical principles, and ensuring adherence to regulatory and technical competencies in medical social work were important. The need to negotiate and maneuver in a large environment within the Campus to ensure proactive integrative process helped. PMID:25321932

Ow Yong, Lai Meng; Tan, Amanda Wei Li; Loo, Cecilia Lay Keng; Lim, Esther Li Ping

2014-10-01

153

75 FR 34453 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies; Notice of Public Meeting; Reopening of Comment Period  

Science.gov (United States)

...Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS), REMS Assessments...Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS), REMS Assessments...Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS), REMS Assessments...that there is no additional compensation for pharmacists...

2010-06-17

154

Radiological terrorism: Countermeasures and measures for mitigation of consequences  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Radioactive sources can be used in devices aimed at radiological terrorism. The paper briefly discusses the types and quantities of sources that may be suitable for such a purpose. A summary of equipment containing significant radioactive sources manufactured in the former Soviet Union is presented. The paper also describes the structure, functions and future directions of activities of organizations in the Russian Federation responsible for nuclear safety and security, including the control and accounting of radioactive materials and the system to prevent, respond to and mitigate the consequences of nuclear emergency situations. (author)

155

Risk Mitigation for the Development of the New Ariane 5 On-Board Computer  

Science.gov (United States)

In the frame of the Ariane 5 production, some equipment will become obsolete and need to be redesigned and redeveloped. This is the case for the On-Board Computer, which has to be completely redesigned and re-qualified by RUAG Space, as well as all its on-board software and associated development tools by ASTRIUM ST. This paper presents this obsolescence treatment, which has started in 2007 under an ESA contract, in the frame of ACEP and ARTA accompaniment programmes, and is very critical in technical term but also from schedule point of view: it gives the context and overall development plan, and details the risk mitigation actions agreed with ESA, especially those related to the development of the input/output ASIC, and also the on-board software porting and revalidation strategy. The efficiency of these risk mitigation actions has been proven by the outcome schedule; this development constitutes an up-to-date case for good practices, including some experience report and feedback for future other developments.

Stransky, A.; Dubuc, F.; Conde-Reis, A.; Ledoux, A.; Miramont, P.; Johansson, L.

2010-08-01

156

Disease risk mitigation: the equivalence of two selective mixing strategies on aggregate contact patterns and resulting epidemic spread.  

Science.gov (United States)

The personal choices affecting the transmission of infectious diseases include the number of contacts an individual makes, and the risk-characteristics of those contacts. We consider whether these different choices have distinct implications for the course of an epidemic. We also consider whether choosing contact mitigation (how much to mix) and affinity mitigation (with whom to mix) strategies together has different epidemiological effects than choosing each separately. We use a set of differential equation compartmental models of the spread of disease, coupled with a model of selective mixing. We assess the consequences of varying contact or affinity mitigation as a response to disease risk. We do this by comparing disease incidence and dynamics under varying contact volume, contact type, and both combined across several different disease models. Specifically, we construct a change of variables that allows one to transition from contact mitigation to affinity mitigation, and vice versa. In the absence of asymptomatic infection we find no difference in the epidemiological impacts of the two forms of disease risk mitigation. Furthermore, since models that include both mitigation strategies are underdetermined, varying both results in no outcome that could not be reached by choosing either separately. Which strategy is actually chosen then depends not on their epidemiological consequences, but on the relative cost of reducing contact volume versus altering contact type. Although there is no fundamental epidemiological difference between the two forms of mitigation, the social cost of alternative strategies can be very different. From a social perspective, therefore, whether one strategy should be promoted over another depends on economic not epidemiological factors. PMID:25150459

Morin, Benjamin R; Perrings, Charles; Levin, Simon; Kinzig, Ann

2014-12-21

157

Predictability and extended-range prognosis in natural hazard risk mitigation process: A case study over west Greece  

Science.gov (United States)

Natural hazards pose an increasing threat to society and new innovative techniques or methodologies are necessary to be developed, in order to enhance the risk mitigation process in nowadays. It is commonly accepted that disaster risk reduction is a vital key for future successful economic and social development. The systematic improvement accuracy of extended-range prognosis products, relating with monthly and seasonal predictability, introduced them as a new essential link in risk mitigation procedure. Aiming at decreasing the risk, this paper presents the use of seasonal and monthly forecasting process that was tested over west Greece from September to December, 2013. During that season significant severe weather events occurred, causing significant impact to the local society (severe storms/rainfalls, hail, flash floods, etc). Seasonal and monthly forecasting products from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) depicted, with probabilities stratified by terciles, areas of Greece where significant weather may occur. As atmospheric natural hazard early warning systems are able to deliver warnings up to 72 hours in advance, this study illustrates that extended-range prognosis could be introduced as a new technique in risk mitigation. Seasonal and monthly forecast products could highlight extended areas where severe weather events may occur in one month lead time. In addition, a risk mitigation procedure, that extended prognosis products are adopted, is also presented providing useful time to preparedness process at regional administration level.

Matsangouras, Ioannis T.; Nastos, Panagiotis T.

2014-05-01

158

CO? mitigation measures of power sector and its integrated optimization in China.  

Science.gov (United States)

Power sector is responsible for about 40% of the total CO? emissions in the world and plays a leading role in climate change mitigation. In this study, measures that lower CO? emissions from the supply side, demand side, and power grid are discussed, based on which, an integrated optimization model of CO? mitigation (IOCM) is proposed. Virtual energy, referring to energy saving capacity in both demand side and the power grid, together with conventional energy in supply side, is unified planning for IOCM. Consequently, the optimal plan of energy distribution, considering both economic benefits and mitigation benefits, is figured out through the application of IOCM. The results indicate that development of demand side management (DSM) and smart grid can make great contributions to CO? mitigation of power sector in China by reducing the CO? emissions by 10.02% and 12.59%, respectively, in 2015, and in 2020. PMID:23213305

Dai, Pan; Chen, Guang; Zhou, Hao; Su, Meirong; Bao, Haixia

2012-01-01

159

Spatial energy market risk analysis using the semivariance risk measure  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The paper concentrates on the analysis of semivariance (SV) as a market risk measure for market risk analysis of mean-semivariance (MSV) portfolios. The advantage of MSV over variance as a risk measure is that MSV provides a more logical measure of risk than the MV method. In addition, the relationship of the SV with the lower partial movements is discussed. A spatial risk model is proposed as a basis of risk assessment for short-term energy markets. Transaction costs and other practical constraints are also included. A case study is provided to show the successful application of the model. (author)

160

Spectral risk measures and portfolio selection  

OpenAIRE

This paper deals with risk measurement and portfolio optimization under risk constraints. Firstly we give an overview of risk assessment from the viewpoint of risk theory, focusing on moment-based, distortion and spectral risk measures. We subsequently apply these ideas to an asset management framework using a database of hedge funds returns chosen for their non- Gaussian features. We deal with the problem of portfolio optimization under risk constraints and lead a comparative analysis of eff...

Adam, Alexandre; Houkari, Mohamed; Laurent, Jean-paul

2007-01-01

161

The VUELCO project consortium: new interdisciplinary research for improved risk mitigation and management during volcanic unrest  

Science.gov (United States)

Volcanic unrest is a complex multi-hazard phenomenon of volcanism. The fact that unrest may, but not necessarily must lead to an imminent eruption contributes significant uncertainty to short-term hazard assessment of volcanic activity world-wide. Although it is reasonable to assume that all eruptions are associated with precursory activity of some sort, the knowledge of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting unrest signals and imminent eruption is, today, inadequate to deal effectively with crises of volcanic unrest. This results predominantly from the uncertainties in identifying the causative processes of unrest and as a consequence in forecasting its short-term evolution. However, key for effective risk mitigation and management during unrest is the early and reliable identification of changes in the subsurface dynamics of a volcano and their assessment as precursors to an impending eruption. The VUELCO project consortium has come together for a multi-disciplinary attack on the origin, nature and significance of volcanic unrest from the scientific contributions generated by collaboration of ten partners in Europe and Latin America. Dissecting the science of monitoring data from unrest periods at six type volcanoes in Italy, Spain, the West Indies, Mexico and Ecuador the consortium will create global strategies for 1) enhanced monitoring capacity and value, 2) mechanistic data interpretation and 3) identification of reliable eruption precursors; all from the geophysical, geochemical and geodetic fingerprints of unrest episodes. Experiments will establish a mechanistic understanding of subsurface processes capable of inducing unrest and aid in identifying key volcano monitoring parameters indicative of the nature of unrest processes. Numerical models will help establish a link between the processes and volcano monitoring data to inform on the causes of unrest and its short-term evolution. Using uncertainty assessment and new short-term probabilistic hazard forecasting tools the scientific knowledge base will provide the crucial parameters for a comprehensive and best-practice approach to 1) risk mitigation, 2) communication, 3) decision-making and 4) crisis management during unrest periods. The VUELCO project consortium efforts will generate guidance in the definition and implementation of strategic options for effective risk mitigation, management and governance during unrest episodes. Such a mechanistic platform of understanding, impacting on the synergy of scientists, policy-makers, civil protection authorities, decision-makers, and the public, will place volcanic unrest management on a new basis, with European expertise at its peak. The project is financed by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development, Area "Environment".

Gottsmann, J.

2012-04-01

162

Measuring, Reporting and Verifying Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions. Reflecting experiences under the Mitigation Momentum Project. Discussion paper  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Mitigation Momentum project aims to support the development of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs). It contributes to the concrete design of NAMA proposals in five countries (Peru, Chile, Indonesia, Tunisia and Kenya). A further aim is to foster cooperation and knowledge exchange within the NAMA community while advancing the international climate policy debate on mitigation and related issues, including approaches for the Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) of NAMAs. MRV enables the assessment of the effectiveness of both internationally supported NAMAs (supported NAMAs) and domestically supported NAMAs (unilateral NAMAs) by tracking NAMA impacts including greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions and non-GHG related impacts such as sustainable development benefits. MRV also supports improved policy design and decision making through systematic progress reporting and is a key tool to ensure accountability of NAMA stakeholders. Both host countries and funders share the common interest of having strong, implementable MRV systems in place. From both perspectives, this raises a number of questions, as well as potential challenges, on how to adapt the MRV approach to the specific circumstances of each NAMA. The objective of this paper is to identify open issues for the MRV of impacts of NAMAs, understood here as implementable actions, i.e. a project, a policy, a programme or a strategy. It pays particular attention to NAMAs with a supported component and reflects relevant initial experiences with developing NAMA proposals in the five Mitigation Momentum countries (i.e. using country examples where appropriate). As MRV systems for these NAMAs are still under development or at their preliminary stage, we hope to share further lessons learned in a subsequent discussion paper. Key challenges analysed in this paper include: How to design a MRV system that satisfies both the host country's and funder's expectations while complying with United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reporting requirements? How to draw the line between the MRV approach for unilateral components and the MRV approach for supported components given that many NAMAs are likely to have both unilateral as well as supported components? How to design a pragmatic, implementable MRV system, which is also robust? What does robustness mean in the context of the MRV of NAMAs? Current NAMA experiences show that responding to these challenges requires taking into account the variety of NAMAs, as illustrated by those submitted to the UNFCCC (including economy-wide GHG reduction goals, sectoral strategies, mitigation policies, individual projects, etc.), and countries' capacities. Although this paper does not aim to provide practical guidance, it will highlight areas where common guidance would be valuable to deal with such challenges. It will also point out areas where such guidance is limited de facto and where pragmatic approaches i.e. seeking a balance between robustness, feasibility and cost-effectiveness, may prove valuable to design feasible yet still robust MRV systems. Although this paper does not answer all questions it raises, it aims to offer innovative ways to respond to open issues, including through learning from country experiences. After a short introduction to basic MRV concepts and to the current status of discussions and experiences on MRV (Chapter 2), the paper is organised around key dimensions of MRV as recognised by MRV literature and UNFCCC texts: transparency (Chapter 3), robustness (Chapter 4), and feasibility and cost-effectiveness (Chapter 5). Challenges pertaining to these MRV dimensions are further explored in each chapter.

De Vit, C.; Roeser, F.; Fekete, H.; Hoehne, N.; Wartmann, S.; Van Tilburg, X.; Larkin, J.; Escalante, D.; Haensel, G.; Veum, K.; Cameron, L.; Halcomb, J.

2013-06-15

163

Effect of Wind Intermittency on the Electric Grid: Mitigating the Risk of Energy Deficits  

CERN Document Server

Successful implementation of California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) mandating 33 percent renewable energy generation by 2020 requires inclusion of a robust strategy to mitigate increased risk of energy deficits (blackouts) due to short time-scale (sub 1 hour) intermittencies in renewable energy sources. Of these RPS sources, wind energy has the fastest growth rate--over 25% year-over-year. If these growth trends continue, wind energy could make up 15 percent of California's energy portfolio by 2016 (wRPS15). However, the hour-to-hour variations in wind energy (speed) will create large hourly energy deficits that require installation of other, more predictable, compensation generation capacity and infrastructure. Compensating for the energy deficits of wRPS15 could potentially cost tens of billions in additional dollar-expenditure for fossil and / or nuclear generation capacity. There is a real possibility that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions will miss the California ...

George, Sam O; Nguyen, Scott V

2010-01-01

164

The Sensor Test for Orion RelNav Risk Mitigation Development Test Objective  

Science.gov (United States)

The Sensor Test for Orion Relative-Navigation Risk Mitigation (STORRM) Development Test Objective (DTO) ew aboard the Space Shuttle Endeavour on STS-134, and was designed to characterize the performance of the ash LIDAR being developed for the Orion. This ash LIDAR, called the Vision Navigation Sensor (VNS), will be the primary navigation instrument used by the Orion vehicle during rendezvous, proximity operations, and docking. This paper provides an overview of the STORRM test objectives and the concept of operations. It continues with a description of the STORRM's major hardware compo nents, which include the VNS and the docking camera. Next, an overview of crew and analyst training activities will describe how the STORRM team prepared for flight. Then an overview of how insight data collection and analysis actually went is presented. Key ndings and results from this project are summarized, including a description of "truth" data. Finally, the paper concludes with lessons learned from the STORRM DTO.

Christian, John A.; Hinkel, Heather; Maguire, Sean

2011-01-01

165

The influence of hazard models on GIS-based regional risk assessments and mitigation policies  

Science.gov (United States)

Geographic information systems (GIS) are important tools for understanding and communicating the spatial distribution of risks associated with natural hazards in regional economies. We present a GIS-based decision support system (DSS) for assessing community vulnerability to natural hazards and evaluating potential mitigation policy outcomes. The Land Use Portfolio Modeler (LUPM) integrates earth science and socioeconomic information to predict the economic impacts of loss-reduction strategies. However, the potential use of such systems in decision making may be limited when multiple but conflicting interpretations of the hazard are available. To explore this problem, we conduct a policy comparison using the LUPM to test the sensitivity of three available assessments of earthquake-induced lateral-spread ground failure susceptibility in a coastal California community. We find that the uncertainty regarding the interpretation of the science inputs can influence the development and implementation of natural hazard management policies. Copyright ?? 2006 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Bernknopf, R.L.; Rabinovici, S.J.M.; Wood, N.J.; Dinitz, L.B.

2006-01-01

166

Recommended Mitigation Measures for an Influenza Pandemic in Remote and Isolated First Nations Communities of Ontario, Canada: A Community-Based Participatory Research Approach  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Influenza pandemics disproportionately impact remote and/or isolated Indigenous communities worldwide. The differential risk experienced by such communities warrants the recommendation of specific mitigation measures. Interviewer-administered questionnaires were conducted with adult key health care informants from three remote and isolated Canadian First Nations communities of sub-Arctic Ontario. Forty-eight mitigation measures (including the setting, pandemic period, trigger, and duration were questioned. Participants’ responses were summarized and collected data were deductively and inductively coded. The participants recommended 41 of the questioned mitigation measures, and often differed from previous literature and national recommendations. Results revealed that barriers, such as overcrowded housing, limited supplies, and health care infrastructure, impacted the feasibility of implementing mitigation measures. These findings suggest that pandemic plans should recommend control strategies for remote and isolated Canadian First Nations communities that may not be supported in other communities. These findings highlight the importance of engaging locally impacted populations using participatory approaches in policy decision-making processes. Other countries with remote and/or isolated Indigenous communities are encouraged to include recommendations for mitigation measures that specifically address the unique needs of such communities in an effort to improve their health outcomes during the next influenza pandemic.

Nadia A. Charania

2014-06-01

167

Stochastic optimized life cycle models for risk mitigation in power system applications  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This ork shows the relevance of stochastic optimization in complex power system applications. It was proven that usual deterministic mean value models not only predict inaccurate results but are also most often on the risky side. The change in the market effects all kind of evaluation processes (e.g. fuel type and technology but especially financial engineering evaluations) in the endeavor of a strict risk mitigation comparison. But not only IPPs also traditional Utilities dash for risk/return optimized investment opportunities. In this study I developed a 2-phase model which can support a decision-maker in finding optimal solutions on investment and profitability. It has to be stated, that in this study no objective function will be optimized in an algorithmically way. On the one hand focus is laid on finding optimal solutions out of different choices (highest return at lowest possible risk); on the other hand the endeavor was to provide a decision makers with a better assessment of the likelihood of outcomes on investment considerations. The first (deterministic) phase computes in a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) approach (Life cycle Calculation; DCF method). Most of the causal relations (day of operation, escalation of personal expanses, inflation, depreciation period, etc.) are defined within this phase. The second (stochastic) phase is a total new way in optimizing risk/return relations. With the some decision theory mathematics an expected value of stochastic solmatics an expected value of stochastic solutions can be calculated. Furthermore probability function have to be defined out of historical data. The model not only supports profitability analysis (including regress and sensitivity analysis) but also supports a decision-maker in a decision process. Emphasis was laid on risk-return analysis, which can give the decision-maker first hand informations of the type of risk return problem (risk concave, averse or linear). Five important parameters were chosen which have the characteristics of typical prospective unpredictability. Other parameters which are not typical totally uncertain in the future are handled within the deterministic live cycle model (parameters such as escalation of insurance costs, personal costs, etc.). One major result in comparing the deterministic with a stochastic calculation was that without changing a mean value parameter the result of stochastic calculation can vary from the deterministic calculation tremendously. In this study I proved that such tools for risk/return analysis could provide helpful informations to a decision-maker. The only major prerequisite for a good solution is that the user has reliable statistical empirical data available and that he spends in fitting the distribution curves to these. (author)

168

Geologic carbon sequestration as a global strategy to mitigate CO2 emissions: Sustainability and environmental risk  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fossil fuels are abundant, inexpensive to produce, and are easily converted to usable energy by combustion as demonstrated by mankind's dependence on fossil fuels for over 80% of its primary energy supply (13). This reliance on fossil fuels comes with the cost of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions that exceed the rate at which CO{sub 2} can be absorbed by terrestrial and oceanic systems worldwide resulting in increases in atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration as recorded by direct measurements over more than five decades (14). Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas linked to global warming and associated climate change, the impacts of which are currently being observed around the world, and projections of which include alarming consequences such as water and food shortages, sea level rise, and social disruptions associated with resource scarcity (15). The current situation of a world that derives the bulk of its energy from fossil fuel in a manner that directly causes climate change equates to an energy-climate crisis. Although governments around the world have only recently begun to consider policies to avoid the direst projections of climate change and its impacts, sustainable approaches to addressing the crisis are available. The common thread of feasible strategies to the energy climate crisis is the simultaneous use of multiple approaches based on available technologies (e.g., 16). Efficiency improvements (e.g., in building energy use), increased use of natural gas relative to coal, and increased development of renewables such as solar, wind, and geothermal, along with nuclear energy, are all available options that will reduce net CO{sub 2} emissions. While improvements in efficiency can be made rapidly and will pay for themselves, the slower pace of change and greater monetary costs associated with increased use of renewables and nuclear energy suggests an additional approach is needed to help bridge the time period between the present and a future when low-carbon energy is considered cheap enough to replace fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is one such bridging technology (1). CCS has been the focus of an increasing amount of research over the last 15-20 years and is the subject of a comprehensive IPCC report that thoroughly covers the subject (1). CCS is currently being carried out in several countries around the world in conjunction with natural gas extraction (e.g., 2, 3) and enhanced oil recovery (17). Despite this progress, widespread deployment of CCS remains the subject of research and future plans rather than present action on the scale needed to mitigate emissions from the perspective of climate change. The reasons for delay in deploying CCS more widely are concerns about cost (18), regulatory and legal uncertainty (19), and potential environmental impacts (21). This chapter discusses the long-term (decadal) sustainability and environmental hazards associated with the geologic CO{sub 2} storage (GCS) component of large-scale CCS (e.g., 20). Discussion here barely touches on capture and transport of CO{sub 2} which will occur above ground and which are similar to existing engineering, chemical processing, and pipeline transport activities and are therefore easier to evaluate with respect to risk assessment and feasibility. The focus of this chapter is on the more uncertain part of CCS, namely geologic storage. The primary concern for sustainability of GCS is whether there is sufficient capacity in sedimentary basins worldwide to contain the large of amounts of CO{sub 2} needed to address climate change. But there is also a link between sustainability and environmental impacts. Specifically, if GCS is found to cause unacceptable impacts that are considered worse than its climate-change mitigation benefits, the approach will not be widely adopted. Hence, GCS has elements of sustainability insofar as capacity of the subsurface for CO{sub 2} is concerned, and also in terms of whether the associated environmental risks are acceptable or not to the public.

Oldenburg, C.M.

2011-04-01

169

Implications of Climate Change Impacts on Regional Maize Production in the United States: Risk Mitigation Strategies and Food Security  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Analyzing the impacts of climate change on regional maize production in the North Central and the South regions of the United States and proposing risk mitigation strategies have significant implications in the context of national and global food security. Unlike most estimation, we use an interdisciplinary approach and combine climatic variables along with economic inputs and technological improvement in the adapted Cobb-Douglas production function model. The production function is simulated through 2030 under a variety of climate change scenarios, and the results indicate that under the climate change South region tends to have opposite impacts relative to the North Central, the major maize production region in the United States. The results imply that one region’s losses can be partially offset by the other region’s gains. The different responses imply that the South region could provide potential risk mitigation to climate change within the United States and could help the nation and the world maintain maize supply stability. The results gained from this research could be used as cost-efficient climate change risk mitigation strategies for other agricultural commodities in other countries. They can also be used for public policies and advanced risk mitigation and diversification programs, and are expected to contribute to the sustainability of agriculture and the stability of international crop market price in the United States and the world.

Xiang Li

2013-10-01

170

Feasibility study on earthquake early warning and operational earthquake forecasting for risk mitigation at nuclear power plants  

OpenAIRE

Within the framework of the EC-funded project REAKT (Strategies and Tools for Real Time Earthquake Risk Reduction, FP7, contract no. 282862, 2011-2014, www.reaktproject.eu), a task concerns feasibility study and initial implementation of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) and timedependent seismic hazard analyses aimed at mitigating seismic risk at nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Switzerland. This study is jointly carried out by academic institutions (the Swiss Seismological Service at ETHZ and BR...

Cauzzi, Carlo; Behr, Yannik; Clinton, John Francis; Le Guenan, Thomas; Douglas, John; Auclair, Samuel; Wiemer, Stefan; Wo?ssner, Jochen; Caprio, Marta; Cua, Georgia

2015-01-01

171

Program for Prediction, Prevention and Mitigation of Forest Fire and Flood risk in Albania  

Science.gov (United States)

The rationale lying behind the program jointly managed by the Albanian and the Italian Civil protections is that of strengthening the Albanian National System for the prediction and prevention of forest fires and flooding. This is an initiative of the Italian government aimed at implementing in Albania the systems currently used by the Italian National "Functional Centers". The "Functional Centers" are the Operations Centers in charge for assessment forecasting, and surveillance of natural and man-made risks and represent a key component of the Italian Civil Protection System. CIMA Foundation is acting in its capacity as Executing Agency of the Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC) in the framework of the International Cooperation between the two Countries. CIMA Foundation has been founded by DPC and the University of Genoa with the aim of advancing the scientific research and technical development, high profile engineering and environmental science education, whose ultimate goal is to guarantee public health and safety as well as to safeguard land and sea ecosystems. The "Program for Prediction, Prevention and Mitigation of Forest Fire and Flood risk in Albania" addresses four objectives: Object 1- to establish a National Center for Forecasting and Monitoring of Natural Risk/National Functional Center, a National Operations Center and two Regional Operations Centers; Object 2 to design and to implement an intensive training programme for risk assessment and management; Object 3 - to adapt the Italian Early Warning System for forest fires to the whole Albanian territory; Object 4 - to adapt the Italian Early Warning System for flooding to the Buna river and the Shkodra region, the latter recently affected by two disastrous floods.

Centoducati, C.; D'Angelo, L.; Deda, M.; Ferraris, L.; Fiori, E.; Gjonaj, M.; Kelmendi, S.; Massabò, M.; Olli, A.; Siccardi, F.

2012-04-01

172

Severe accident approach - final report. Evaluation of design measures for severe accident prevention and consequence mitigation.  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

An important goal of the US DOE reactor development program is to conceptualize advanced safety design features for a demonstration Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR). The treatment of severe accidents is one of the key safety issues in the design approach for advanced SFR systems. It is necessary to develop an in-depth understanding of the risk of severe accidents for the SFR so that appropriate risk management measures can be implemented early in the design process. This report presents the results of a review of the SFR features and phenomena that directly influence the sequence of events during a postulated severe accident. The report identifies the safety features used or proposed for various SFR designs in the US and worldwide for the prevention and/or mitigation of Core Disruptive Accidents (CDA). The report provides an overview of the current SFR safety approaches and the role of severe accidents. Mutual understanding of these design features and safety approaches is necessary for future collaborations between the US and its international partners as part of the GEN IV program. The report also reviews the basis for an integrated safety approach to severe accidents for the SFR that reflects the safety design knowledge gained in the US during the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor (ALMR) and Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) programs. This approach relies on inherent reactor and plant safety performance characteristics to provide additional safety margins. The goal of this approach is to prevent development of severe accident conditions, even in the event of initiators with safety system failures previously recognized to lead directly to reactor damage.

Tentner, A. M.; Parma, E.; Wei, T.; Wigeland, R.; Nuclear Engineering Division; SNL; INL

2010-03-01

173

Making the Handoff from Earthquake Hazard Assessments to Effective Mitigation Measures (Invited)  

Science.gov (United States)

This year has witnessed a barrage of large earthquakes worldwide with the resulting damages ranging from inconsequential to truly catastrophic. We cannot predict when earthquakes will strike, but we can build communities that are resilient to strong shaking as well as to secondary hazards such as landslides and liquefaction. The contrasting impacts of the magnitude-7 earthquake that struck Haiti in January and the magnitude-8.8 event that struck Chile in April underscore the difference that mitigation and preparedness can make. In both cases, millions of people were exposed to severe shaking, but deaths in Chile were measured in the hundreds rather than the hundreds of thousands that perished in Haiti. Numerous factors contributed to these disparate outcomes, but the most significant is the presence of strong building codes in Chile and their total absence in Haiti. The financial cost of the Chilean earthquake still represents an unacceptably high percentage of that nation’s gross domestic product, a reminder that life safety is the paramount, but not the only, goal of disaster risk reduction measures. For building codes to be effective, both in terms of lives saved and economic cost, they need to reflect the hazard as accurately as possible. As one of four federal agencies that make up the congressionally mandated National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) develops national seismic hazard maps that form the basis for seismic provisions in model building codes through the Federal Emergency Management Agency and private-sector practitioners. This cooperation is central to NEHRP, which both fosters earthquake research and establishes pathways to translate research results into implementation measures. That translation depends on the ability of hazard-focused scientists to interact and develop mutual trust with risk-focused engineers and planners. Strengthening that interaction is an opportunity for the next generation of earthquake scientists and engineers. In addition to the national maps, the USGS produces more detailed urban seismic hazard maps that communities have used to prioritize retrofits and design critical infrastructure that can withstand large earthquakes. At a regional scale, the USGS and its partners in California have developed a time-dependent earthquake rupture forecast that is being used by the insurance sector, which can serve to distribute risk and foster mitigation if the right incentives are in place. What the USGS and partners are doing at the urban, regional, and national scales, the Global Earthquake Model project is seeking to do for the world. A significant challenge for engaging the public to prepare for earthquakes is making low-probability, high-consequence events real enough to merit personal action. Scenarios help by starting with the hazard posed by a specific earthquake and then exploring the fragility of the built environment, cascading failures, and the real-life consequences for the public. To generate such a complete picture takes multiple disciplines working together. Earthquake scenarios are being used both for emergency management exercises and much broader public preparedness efforts like the Great California ShakeOut, which engaged nearly 7 million people.

Applegate, D.

2010-12-01

174

Measuring Risk When Expected Losses Are Unbounded  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This paper proposes a new method to introduce coherent risk measures for risks with infinite expectation, such as those characterized by some Pareto distributions. Extensions of the conditional value at risk, the weighted conditional value at risk and other examples are given. Actuarial applications are analyzed, such as extensions of the expected value premium principle when expected losses are unbounded.

Alejandro Balbás

2014-09-01

175

Diarrhoeal Health Risks Attributable to Water-Borne-Pathogens in Arsenic-Mitigated Drinking Water in West Bengal are Largely Independent of the Microbiological Quality of the Supplied Water  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available There is a growing discussion about the possibility of arsenic mitigation measures in Bengal and similar areas leading to undesirable substitution of water-borne-pathogen attributable risks pathogens for risks attributable to arsenic, in part because of uncertainties in relative pathogen concentrations in supplied and end-use water. We try to resolve this discussion, by assessing the relative contributions of water supply and end-user practices to water-borne-pathogen-attributable risks for arsenic mitigation options in a groundwater arsenic impacted area of West Bengal. Paired supplied arsenic-mitigated water and end-use drinking water samples from 102 households were collected and analyzed for arsenic and thermally tolerant coliforms [TTC], used as a proxy for microbiological water quality, We then estimated the DALYs related to key sequelae, diarrheal diseases and cancers, arising from water-borne pathogens and arsenic respectively. We found [TTC] in end-use drinking water to depend only weakly on [TTC] in source-water. End-user practices far outweighed the microbiological quality of supplied water in determining diarrheal disease burden. [TTC] in source water was calculated to contribute <1% of total diarrheal disease burden. No substantial demonstrable pathogen-for-arsenic risk substitution attributable to specific arsenic mitigation of supplied waters was observed, illustrating the benefits of arsenic mitigation measures in the area studied.

Debapriya Mondal

2014-04-01

176

Measurements of Electron Cloud Growth and Mitigation in Dipole, Quadrupole, and Wiggler Magnets  

CERN Document Server

Retarding field analyzers (RFAs), which provide a localized measurement of the electron cloud, have been installed throughout the Cornell Electron Storage Ring (CESR), in different magnetic field environments. This paper describes the RFA designs developed for dipole, quadrupole, and wiggler field regions, and provides an overview of measurements made in each environment. The effectiveness of electron cloud mitigations, including coatings, grooves, and clearing electrodes, are assessed with the RFA measurements.

Calvey, J R; Li, Y; Livezey, J A; Makita, J; Palmer, M A; Rubin, D

2014-01-01

177

Measurements of electron cloud growth and mitigation in dipole, quadrupole, and wiggler magnets  

Science.gov (United States)

Retarding field analyzers (RFAs), which provide a localized measurement of the electron cloud, have been installed throughout the Cornell Electron Storage Ring (CESR), in different magnetic field environments. This paper describes the RFA designs developed for dipole, quadrupole, and wiggler field regions, and provides an overview of measurements made in each environment. The effectiveness of electron cloud mitigations, including coatings, grooves, and clearing electrodes, are assessed with the RFA measurements.

Calvey, J. R.; Hartung, W.; Li, Y.; Livezey, J. A.; Makita, J.; Palmer, M. A.; Rubin, D.

2015-01-01

178

Tree nut allergy: risk factors for development, mitigation of reaction risk and current efforts in desensitization.  

Science.gov (United States)

Allergy to tree nuts has grown widespread among patients, specifically in the pediatric population, in recent years. In this review, we evaluate and summarize the literature specific to development and treatment of tree nut allergy. The cause of tree nut allergy, such as most food allergies, is unknown; there are theories regarding maternal dietary factors as well as sensitization related to cross-reactivity to peanut allergens. The gold standard for the diagnosis of tree nut allergy is the double-blind, placebo-controlled, oral food challenge; however, simpler and more cost-effective diagnostic methods, such as the skin prick test and serum-specific IgE are often used as a supplement for diagnosis. Management of tree nut allergy consists of dietary avoidance and using epinephrine to manage serious allergic reactions. Alternative therapeutic methods, such as oral and sublingual immunotherapy and modification of allergenic proteins are being explored to develop safer, more effective and long-lasting management of tree nut allergy. We comment on the current studies involving risk factors for sensitization, diagnosis and management of tree nut allergy. PMID:25824522

Liu, Mona; Burks, A Wesley; Green, Todd D

2015-05-01

179

REVIEW OF SELECTED STATE-OF-THE-ART APPLICATIONS OF DIAGNOSTIC MEASUREMENTS FOR RADON MITIGATION PLANNING  

Science.gov (United States)

Since late-1984, EPA's AEERL has supported a program to develop and demonstrate radon mitigation techniques for single-family detached dwellings. As part of the program, projects have been started directed at developing and demonstrating the use of diagnostic measurements in all ...

180

CO2 Mitigation Measures of Power Sector and Its Integrated Optimization in China  

OpenAIRE

Power sector is responsible for about 40% of the total CO2 emissions in the world and plays a leading role in climate change mitigation. In this study, measures that lower CO2 emissions from the supply side, demand side, and power grid are discussed, based on which, an integrated optimization model of CO2 mitigation (IOCM) is proposed. Virtual energy, referring to energy saving capacity in both demand side and the power grid, together with conventional energy in supply side, is unified planni...

Dai, Pan; Chen, Guang; Zhou, Hao; Su, Meirong; Bao, Haixia

2012-01-01

181

Multiple-pollutant cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gas mitigation measures in the UK agriculture  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Highlights: ? Multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curves can inform integrated environmental policy. ? We incorporated the co-effects on NH3, NO3?, P and sediment, as monetary values, into the UK GHG MACC. ? Adding co-effects modifies the GHG MACC, though with little impact unless using high damage values. ? Further research is needed on the co-effects of GHG mitigation measures and on damage values. ? Analysis should focus on the co-effects of measures that are slightly above or below the threshold. -- Abstract: This paper develops multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curve analysis to identify an optimal set of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures considering the trade-offs and synergies with other environmental pollutants. The analysis is applied to UK agriculture, a sector expected to make a contribution to the national GHG mitigation effort. Previous analyses using marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) have determined the sector's GHG abatement potential based on the cost-effectiveness of a variety of technically feasible mitigation measures. Most of these measures have external effects on other pollution loads arising from agricultural activities. Here the monetary values of four of the most important impacts to water and air (specifically ammonia, nitrate, phosphorous and sediment) are included in the cost-effectiveness analysis. The resulting multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curve (MP MACC) informs the design of sustainable climate change policies by showing how the MP MACC for the UK agriculture can differ from the GHG MACC. The analysis also highlights research gaps, and suggests a need to understand the wider environmental effects of GHG mitigation options and to reduce the uncertainty in pollutant damage cost estimates

182

Risk informed analysis of training effectiveness for mitigating accidents of nuclear power plants  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A critical area for deriving expected benefits from training and exercise is the measurement of 'training effectiveness'-how well the training inputs are serving the intended purpose. This aspect is often neglected by nuclear organizations, saying that measurement is difficult. However, I believe that a technique in nuclear society has developed sufficiently to measure most important aspects of training by way of human reliability analysis (HRA) used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The consequences of errors caused by lack of training can be evaluated in terms of the overall vulnerability to human error of the facility under consideration. This study presents current situation and considerations for measures of robustness on nuclear accidents and HRA technique on the training effectiveness. In view of risk informed approach with this consideration and an example case, I'd like to identify appropriate relationship between risk measures of robustness and training effectiveness.

Lee, Chang Ju [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2012-10-15

183

A review of selected state of the art applications of diagnostic measurements for radon mitigation planning  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The Air and Energy Engineering Laboratory of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has, since the fall of 1984, supported a program to develop and demonstrate radon mitigation techniques for single family detached dwellings. To date approximately sixty houses with radon concentrations ranging from 20 to 600 rhoCi/L (740-22,000 Bq/m/sup -3/) have been investigated and have had radon mitigation plans developed for demonstration purposes. This paper compares and evaluates the relative utility of selected diagnostic measurements used by EPA contractors in their efforts to understand the indoor radon problem and select the most appropriate mitigation for a specific house. The diagnostic measurements reported include: grab sampling of infiltrating soil gas from cracks or openings around utility entries to below-grade house structure, and of soil gas under the slab and in hollow walls, air flow and air communications measurements using depressurization under basement floors and around walls, whole house infiltration (leakage area) measurements, differential pressure measurements between various zones inside and outside the house, gamma measurements, and radon flux measurements over exposed soil and through basement walls and floors

184

On the post mitigation impact risk assessment of possible targets for an asteroid deflection demonstration mission in the NEOShield project.  

Science.gov (United States)

Mankind believes to have the capabilities to avert potentially disastrous asteroid impacts. Yet, only the realization of a mitigation demonstration mission can confirm such a claim. The NEOShield project, an international collaboration under European leadership, aims to draw a comprehensive picture of the scientific as well as technical requirements to such an endeavor. One of the top priorities of such a demonstration mission is, of course, that a previously harmless target asteroid shall not be turned into a potentially hazardous object. Given the inherently large uncertainties in an asteroid's physical parameters, as well as the additional uncertainties introduced during the deflection attempt, an in depth analysis of the change in asteroid impact probabilities after a deflection event becomes necessary. We present a post mitigation impact risk analysis of a list of potential deflection test missions and discuss the influence of orbital, physical and mitigation induced uncertainties.

Eggl, Siegfried

2014-05-01

185

Role of the Internet in Anticipating and Mitigating Earthquake Catastrophes, and the Emergence of Personal Risk Management (Invited)  

Science.gov (United States)

Risks from natural and financial catastrophes are currently managed by a combination of large public and private institutions. Public institutions usually are comprised of government agencies that conduct studies, formulate policies and guidelines, enforce regulations, and make “official” forecasts. Private institutions include insurance and reinsurance companies, and financial service companies that underwrite catastrophe (“cat”) bonds, and make private forecasts. Although decisions about allocating resources and developing solutions are made by large institutions, the costs of dealing with catastrophes generally fall for the most part on businesses and the general public. Information on potential risks is generally available to the public for some hazards but not others. For example, in the case of weather, private forecast services are provided by www.weather.com and www.wunderground.com. For earthquakes in California (only), the official forecast is the WGCEP-USGS forecast, but provided in a format that is difficult for the public to use. Other privately made forecasts are currently available, for example by the JPL QuakeSim and Russian groups, but these efforts are limited. As more of the world’s population moves increasingly into major seismic zones, new strategies are needed to allow individuals to manage their personal risk from large and damaging earthquakes. Examples include individual mitigation measures such as retrofitting, as well as microinsurance in both developing and developed countries, as well as other financial strategies. We argue that the “long tail” of the internet offers an ideal, and greatly underutilized mechanism to reach out to consumers and to provide them with the information and tools they need to confront and manage seismic hazard and risk on an individual, personalized basis. Information of this type includes not only global hazard forecasts, which are now possible, but also global risk estimation. Additionally, social networking tools are available that will allow self-organizing, disaster-resilient communities to arise as emergent structures from the underlying nonlinear social dynamics. In this talk, we argue that the current style of risk management is not making adequate use of modern internet technology, and that significantly more can be done. We suggest several avenues to proceed, in particular making use of the internet for earthquake forecast and information delivery, as well as tracking forecast validation and verification on a real-time basis. We also show examples of forecasts delivered over the internet, and describe how these are made.

Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Donnellan, A.; Graves, W.; Tiampo, K. F.; Klein, W.

2009-12-01

186

Techniques to Assess and Mitigate the Environmental Risk Posed by use of Airguns: Recent Advances from Academic Research Programs  

Science.gov (United States)

There is considerable uncertainty about the ways in which marine mammals might react to noise, the biological significance of reactions, and the effectiveness of planning and real-time mitigation techniques. A planning tool commonly used to assess environmental risk of acoustic activities uses simulations to predict acoustic exposures received by animals, and translates exposure to response using a dose-response function to yield an estimate of the undesired impact on a population. Recent advances show promise to convert this planning tool into a real-time mitigation tool, using Bayesian statistical methods. In this approach, being developed for use by the British Navy, the environmental risk simulation is updated continuously during field operations. The distribution of exposure, set initially based on animal density, is updated in real-time using animal sensing data or environmental data known to correlate with the absence or presence of marine mammals. This conditional probability of animal presence should therefore be more accurate than prior probabilities used during planning, which enables a more accurate and quantitative assessment of both the impact of activities and reduction of impact via mitigation decisions. Two key areas of uncertainty in addition to animal presence/absence are 1.) how biologically-relevant behaviours are affected by exposure to noise, and 2.) whether animals avoid loud noise sources, which is the basis of ramp-up as a mitigation tool. With support from MMS and industry partners, we assessed foraging behaviour and avoidance movements of 8 tagged sperm whales in the Gulf of Mexico during experimental exposure to airguns. The whale that was approached most closely prolonged a surface resting bout hours longer than typical, but resumed foraging immediately after the airguns ceased, suggesting avoidance of deep diving necessary for foraging near active airguns. Behavioral indices of foraging rate (echolocation buzzes produced during prey capture) and locomotion (from pitching movements generated by active swimming) of the 7 remaining exposed whales were compared to sham exposure and post-exposure control periods in 13 unexposed whales. Pitching movements were 6% lower during exposure (P=0.014) with all 7 whales reducing pitching movements. Buzz rates were 19% lower during the exposure condition, but this difference was not statistically significant (P=0.141). The substantial change in mean buzz rate from this small sample motivated a Bayesian analysis, which determined that a model of reduced buzz rate had roughly 3x more posterior support than no effect. Despite the likely impact of airguns on foraging, no avoidance by tagged sperm whales was observed during gradual ramp-up at distances of 7-13km, or full array exposures at 1-13km, calling into question the effectiveness of ramp-up. These results demonstrate that response data can be collected at measured exposure levels, and should motivate additional studies of the effects of airguns on foraging, particularly in waters without such a long history of seismic exploration as the Gulf of Mexico.

Miller, P. J.; Tyack, P. L.; Johnson, M. P.; Madsen, P. T.; King, R.

2006-05-01

187

Impact of road mitigation measures on amphibian populations: A stage-class population mathematical model  

OpenAIRE

It is now well established that amphibians are suffering widespread decline and extinctions. Among other causes, urbanization is responsible for habitat reduction, habitat fragmentation and massive road kills. In this context, it is urgent to develop and assess appropriate conservation measures. Using yearly censuses of migrating adults of two anuran species at one location in Switzerland, we examined the impact of a road mitigation measure - permanent under-road tunnels wit...

Jolivet, Renaud; Antoniazza, Michel; Strehler-perrin, Catherine; Gander, Antoine

2008-01-01

188

Risk Measures and Dependence Modeling in Financial Risk Management  

OpenAIRE

In financial risk management it is essential to be able to model dependence in markets and portfolios in an accurate and efficient way. A high positive dependence between assets in a portfolio can be devastating, especially in times of crises, since losses will most likely occur at the same time in all assets for such a portfolio. The dependence is therefore directly linked to the risk of the portfolio. The risk can be estimated by several different risk measures, for example Value-at-Risk an...

Eriksson, Kristofer

2014-01-01

189

Cooperative efforts to mitigate proliferation risks at the Semipalatinsk test site  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Full text: For forty years the Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS) was used by the Soviet Union for atmospheric and underground nuclear tests. Atmospheric test were terminated as a result of the 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty; underground tests continued until 1990. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991, most of the soldiers guarding the site and most of the technical specialists returned to Russia. The Kazakhstan National Nuclear Center (NNC) was left with a huge environmental legacy and an unknown nuclear proliferation legacy. The Russian government was concerned that it would have to shoulder the environmental cleanup costs and, perhaps, face reparations for past activities. Consequently, its officials and technical specialists had no desire to return to the STS. NNC officials and technical specialists reached out to the international community to ask for assistance in assessing and mitigating the environmental risks at the STS. They had virtually no information about potential proliferation concerns because the nuclear testing records were Russian government property. Under the United States Cooperative Threat Reduction (Nunn-Lugar) program, a concerted effort was made by the U.S. Department of Defense to close the nuclear testing tunnels to destroy the nuclear testing infrastructure at the STS. The Nunn-Lugar program also facilitated the removal of nearly 600 kilograms of highly enrichment uranium from the Ulba Metallurgical Plant in Ust-Kamenothe Ulba Metallurgical Plant in Ust-Kamenogorsk to the United States to avoid potential nuclear proliferation problems. The Nunn-Lugar program was also responsible, together with the Russian government, to return Soviet nuclear weapons from Kazakhstan to Russia. As part of the Cooperative Threat Reduction lab-to-lab program, technical specialists from the U.S. national laboratories began to work with NNC specialists to enhance the protection and safeguarding of fissile materials resident at STS reactors and at the research reactor and associated facilities at the Institute for Nuclear Physics at Alatau and the fast reactor at Aktau. These programs resulted in cooperative activities between NNC and U.S. national laboratory technical specialists. One of these activities brought me to the STS in April 1998. That visit combined with my experience at the U.S. Nevada Nuclear Test Site convinced me that there were likely other fissile materials present at the STS that may present a significant proliferation risk and required immediate attention. NNC officials and specialists were unsuccessful in obtaining any information from the Russian government. Moreover, since the Republic of Kazakhstan had signed the nuclear nonproliferation treaty, it was not supposed to have undeclared fissile materials in its territory. By 1998, my colleagues at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and I had established close cooperation with the nuclear specialists from the Russian Federal Nuclear Centers (the All-Russia Institute for Experimental Physics, VNIIEF, and All-Russia Institute for Theoretical Physics, VNIITF). We were able to convince Academician Rady I. Ilkaev, director of VNIIEF, to return to Kazakhstan in 1999 and sign a three-party technical memorandum to work with the three governments to assess and liquidate the potential proliferation risks. Government officials from the U.S. Department of Energy, Russian Ministry of Atomic Energy, and RK NNC gave formal approval to proceed with trilateral technical cooperation to assess and remediate the proliferation risks associated with former Russian nuclear experiments and tests at STS. Over the next 13 years, we witnessed a remarkable spirit of cooperation among the three countries. The Russian nuclear specialists identified the potential sites of concerns, the type of materials and testing activity. They also played a major role in suggesting the appropriate mitigation actions. Without their cooperation, this effort could not have been successful. If left to the Americans and Kazakhstani specialists, it would have been like lookin

190

Measuring reporting verifying. A primer on MRV for nationally appropriate mitigation actions  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The requirements for measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) of nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) are one of the crucial topics on the agenda of international negotiations to address climate change mitigation. According to agreements so far, the general guidelines for domestic MRV are to be developed by Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA)1. Further, the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) will be conducting international consultations and analysis (ICA) of biennial update reports (BUR) to improve transparency of mitigation actions, which should be measured, reported and verified. 2. What is clear from undergoing discussions both at SBSTA and at SBI is that MRV for NAMAs should not be a burden for controlling greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions connected to economic activities. Instead, the MRV process should facilitate mitigation actions; encourage the redirection of investments and address concerns regarding carbon content of emission intensive operations of private and public companies and enterprises worldwide. While MRV requirements are being shaped within the Convention, there are a number of initiatives supporting developing countries moving forward with NAMA development and demonstration activities. How these actions shall be measured, reported and verified, however, remain unanswered. MRV is not new. It is present in most existing policies and frameworks related to climate change mitigation. With an aim to contribute to international debate and capacity building on this crucial issue, the UNEP Risoe Centre in cooperation with UNDP, are pleased to present this publication that through the direct collaboration with Det Norske Veritas (DNV) builds on existing MRV practices in current carbon markets; provides insights on how MRV for NAMAs can be performed and identifies elements and drivers to be considered when designing adequate MRV systems for NAMAs in developing countries. This primer is the second contribution in the emerging area of NAMAs and MRV. It is complemented by a recent publication on Low Carbon Development Strategies and NAMAs. (Author)

Hinostroza, M. (ed.); Luetken, S.; Holm Olsen, K. (Technical Univ. of Denmark. UNEP Risoe Centre, Roskilde (Denmark)); Aalders, E.; Pretlove, B.; Peters, N. (Det Norske Veritas, Hellerup (Denmark))

2012-03-15

191

Scientific Opinion on animal health risk mitigation treatments as regards imports of animal casings  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available

Salting with NaCl for 30 days is a well-established and accepted procedure in the casings industry and it has been the standard animal health risk mitigation treatment prescribed in EU legislation for many years. This opinion reviews (i improvements in the NaCl treatment that would lead to an increased level of safety to avoid transmission of animal pathogens, (ii alternative treatments that could have been developed giving equivalent or better results in the inactivation of relevant pathogens, and (iii provides an assessment of the phosphate-salt treatment recommended by OIE for foot and mouth disease virus, in particular if it could be considered safe as regards the elimination of other animal pathogens. The rate of inactivation of viruses was highly dependent on temperature for both NaCl and phosphate-NaCl treatment. Treatment with phosphate-NaCl mixture leads to faster inactivation than treatment with NaCl salt alone. Brucella species are readily inactivated by NaCl salting, but mycobacteriamay survive beyond 30 days in intestines in conditions similar to those used for salting of casings. It is recommended that casings should be treated at 20 °C for 30 days to achieve effective inactivation of animal pathogens. Several other treatments have been applied to casings with the aim of inactivating infectious agents, but none of them have been extensively investigated with viruses relevant for animal health.

EFSA Panel on Animal Health and Welfare

2012-07-01

192

The Sensor Test for Orion RelNav Risk Mitigation (STORRM) Development Test Objective  

Science.gov (United States)

The Sensor Test for Orion Relative-Navigation Risk Mitigation (STORRM) Development Test Objective (DTO) flew aboard the Space Shuttle Endeavour on STS-134 in May- June 2011, and was designed to characterize the performance of the flash LIDAR and docking camera being developed for the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle. The flash LIDAR, called the Vision Navigation Sensor (VNS), will be the primary navigation instrument used by the Orion vehicle during rendezvous, proximity operations, and docking. The DC will be used by the Orion crew for piloting cues during docking. This paper provides an overview of the STORRM test objectives and the concept of operations. It continues with a description of STORRM's major hardware components, which include the VNS, docking camera, and supporting avionics. Next, an overview of crew and analyst training activities will describe how the STORRM team prepared for flight. Then an overview of in-flight data collection and analysis is presented. Key findings and results from this project are summarized. Finally, the paper concludes with lessons learned from the STORRM DTO.

Christian, John A.; Hinkel, Heather; D'Souza, Christopher N.; Maguire, Sean; Patangan, Mogi

2011-01-01

193

Developing a scientific procedure for community based hazard mapping and risk mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

As an international exchange student from the Geological Sciences Department at San Diego State University (SDSU), I joined the KKN-PPM program at Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM), Yogyakarta, Indonesia, in July 2011 for 12 days (July 4th to July 16th) of its two month duration (July 4th to August 25th). The KKN-PPM group I was attached was designated 154 and was focused in Plosorejo Village, Karanganyar, Kerjo, Central Java, Indonesia. The mission of KKN-PPM 154 was to survey Plosorejo village for existing landslides, to generate a simple hazard susceptibility map that can be understood by local villagers, and then to begin dissemination of that map into the community. To generate our susceptibility map we first conducted a geological survey of the existing landslides in the field study area, with a focus on determining landslide triggers and gauging areas for susceptibility for future landslides. The methods for gauging susceptibility included lithological observation, the presence of linear cracking, visible loss of structural integrity in structures such as villager homes, as well as collaboration with local residents and with the local rescue and response team. There were three color distinctions used in representing susceptibility which were green, where there is no immediate danger of landslide damage; orange, where transportation routes are at risk of being disrupted by landslides; and red, where imminent landslide potential puts a home in direct danger. The landslide inventory and susceptibility data was compiled into digital mediums such as CorelDraw, ArcGIS and Google Earth. Once a technical map was generated, we presented it to the village leadership for confirmation and modification based on their experience. Finally, we began to use the technical susceptibility map to draft evacuation routes and meeting points in the event of landslides, as well as simple susceptibility maps that can be understood and utilized by local villagers. Landslide mitigation projects that are being conducted alongside the community hazard map include marking evacuation routes with painted bamboo signs, creating a meaningful landslide awareness mural, and installing simple early warning systems that detect land movement and alert residents that evacuation routes should be used. KKN-PPM is scheduled to continue until August 25th, 2011. In the future, research will be done into using the model for community based hazard mapping outlined here in the Geological Sciences Department at SDSU to increase georisk awareness and improve mitigation of landslides in local areas of need such as Tijuana, Mexico.

Verrier, M.

2011-12-01

194

From Smile Asymptotics to Market Risk Measures  

CERN Document Server

The left tail of the implied volatility skew, coming from quotes on out-of-the-money put options, can be thought to reflect the market's assessment of the risk of a huge drop in stock prices. We analyze how this market information can be integrated into the theoretical framework of convex monetary measures of risk. In particular, we make use of indifference pricing by dynamic convex risk measures, which are given as solutions of backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs), to establish a link between these two approaches to risk measurement. We derive a characterization of the implied volatility in terms of the solution of a nonlinear PDE and provide a small time-to-maturity expansion and numerical solutions. This procedure allows to choose convex risk measures in a conveniently parametrized class, distorted entropic dynamic risk measures, which we introduce here, such that the asymptotic volatility skew under indifference pricing can be matched with the market skew.

Sircar, Ronnie

2011-01-01

195

Physical Vulnerability Assessment Based on Fluid and Classical Mechanics to Support Cost-Benefit Analysis of Flood Risk Mitigation Strategies  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The impacts of flood events that occurred in autumn 2011 in the Italian regions of Liguria and Tuscany revived the engagement of the public decision-maker to enhance the synergy of flood control and land use planning. In this context, the design of efficient flood risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation critically relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the fixed and mobile elements exposed to flood hazard. In this paper we develop computation schemes enabling dynamic vulnerability and risk analyses for a broad typological variety of elements at risk. To show their applicability, a series of prime examples are discussed in detail, e.g. a bridge deck impacted by the flood and a car, first displaced and subsequently exposed to collision with fixed objects. We hold the view that it is essential that the derivation of the computational schemes to assess the vulnerability of endangered objects should be based on classical and fluid mechanics. In such a way, we aim to complement from a methodological perspective the existing, mainly empirical, vulnerability and risk assessment approaches and to support the design of effective flood risk mitigation strategies by defusing the main criticalities within the systems prone to flood risk.

Claudio Volcan

2012-02-01

196

Continuous Monitoring and On-line Analysis of Operational Dose Rates: Tools to Further Mitigate Radiation Risks  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Along with passive and active engineering and administrative controls usually implemented in radiation protection programs at different facilities, continuous monitoring and on-line analysis of data measured by the radiation detectors at the workplace and in the environment can be considered as an additional tool used to further mitigate radiation risks. Many monitoring systems on the market today allow connecting radiation area monitors into a network, and reading and accumulating data continuously in a database. The point of this presentation is to bring attention to the fact that such accumulated information can be analyzed and used in many respects to improve reliability and functionality of the monitoring and control systems. A simple time history of background readings from a radiation detector can be used to evaluate the stability of the detector performance. Data recorded during normal facility operations may serve to establish a pattern of acceptable dose rates in such detector and allow to better detect off-normal and unstable modes of the facility operation before they reach hardware trip levels. Facility operators and users may utilize such monitoring systems to optimize operations and minimize their radiological impact. Implementation and examples of use of the RADMON radiation monitoring and data analysis system at Jefferson Lab is presented.

197

A Contribution to Mitigating Seismic Risk in the Bay Area: The Bay Area Regional Deformation (BARD) GPS Network  

Science.gov (United States)

In the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), two million people live in a geologically complex, tectonically active region that has experienced several historic earthquakes, including the 1868 Hayward, the 1906 San Francisco, and 1989 Loma Prieta earthquakes. Geodetic measurements, which are especially useful for detecting deformation and strain on deep structures throughout the seismic cycle, show that Bay Area deformation is both spatially complex and varying with time. Increasingly, GPS data can also be used in real time to complement seismic data in providing robust real-time earthquake information, and, potentially, early warning. The Bay Area Regional Deformation (BARD) network of permanent, continuously operating Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers monitors crustal deformation in the Bay Area and northern California. BARD is a network collocated with several seismic networks (BDSN, NHFN, mini-PBO) operating in Northern California. As the local determination of magnitude is problematic for large earthquakes, the GPS will provide strong constraints on rupture geometry and amount of slip along the slipping fault. Thus, the collocation of all the networks will help mitigate earthquake- related risks associated with an earthquake in the SFBA or in northern California.

Houlie, N.; Romanowicz, B.; Hellweg, P.

2007-05-01

198

Physical Vulnerability Assessment Based on Fluid and Classical Mechanics to Support Cost-Benefit Analysis of Flood Risk Mitigation Strategies  

OpenAIRE

The impacts of flood events that occurred in autumn 2011 in the Italian regions of Liguria and Tuscany revived the engagement of the public decision-maker to enhance the synergy of flood control and land use planning. In this context, the design of efficient flood risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation critically relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the fixed and mobile elements exposed to flood hazard. In this paper we develop computation schemes enabling dyn...

Claudio Volcan; Bruno Mazzorana; Laura Levaggi; Omar Formaggioni

2012-01-01

199

Engineering aspects of earthquake risk mitigation: Lessons from management of recent earthquakes, and consequential mudflows and landslides  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The Proceedings contain 30 selected presentations given at the Second and Third UNDRO/USSR Training Seminars: Engineering Aspects of Earthquake Risk Assessment and Mitigation of Losses, held in Dushanbe, October 1988; and Lessons from Management of Recent Earthquakes, and Consequential Mudflows and Landslides, held in Moscow, October 1989. The annexes to the document provide information on the participants, the work programme and the resolution adopted at each of the seminars. Refs, figs and tabs

200

Experimental measurements about harmonic current mitigation of electric vehicle battery chargers  

OpenAIRE

The expected high penetration of battery chargers for electric vehicles (EV) in electric networks is foreseen as a potential problem for power quality. Battery chargers are nonlinear devices that inject harmonic currents and pollute network voltages. Thus, their harmonic emissions must be analyzed and reduced by harmonic mitigation techniques to avoid future problems. This paper analyzes and reports some real case measurements of harmonics injected by single- and three-ph...

Sainz Sapera, Luis; Balcells Sendra, Josep

2011-01-01

201

Beam Coupling Impedance Measurement and Mitigation for a TOTEM Roman Pot  

OpenAIRE

The longitudinal and transverse beam coupling impedance of the first final TOTEM Roman Pot unit has been measured in the laboratory with the wire method. For the evaluation of transverse impedance the wire position has been kept constant, and the insertions of the RP were moved asymmetrically. With the original configuration of the RP, resonances with fairly high Q values were observed. In order to mitigate this problem, RF-absorbing ferrite plates were mounted in appropriat...

Deile, Mario; Caspers, Fritz; Kroyer, Tom; Oriunno, Marco; Radermacher, Ernst; Roncarolo, Federico; Soter, Anna

2008-01-01

202

Measures of risk importance and their applications  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This work is part of a project being conducted for the Division of Risk Analysis (DRA) of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The objectives of the project are to evaluate the importances of containment, the different safety functions, and other various contributers as assessed in probabilistic risk analyses and to identify generic conclusions regarding the importances. Effective display of the importances is an important part of these objectives. To address these objectives, measures of risk importance need to be first identified and then they need to be evaluated for the different risk analyses which have been performed. This report describes the risk importance measures that were defined and were applied to the risk analyses which were performed as part of the Reactor Safety Study Methodology Applications Program (RSSMAP). The risk importance measures defined in this report measure the importance of features not only with regard to risk reduction but also with regard to reliability assurance, or risk maintenance. The goal of this report is not to identify new mathematical formulas for risk importance but to show how importance measures can be interpreted and can be applied

203

Measuring social risk and determining its acceptability  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The implementation of a nuclear waste management technology raises several issues concerning the regulation of social risk. This paper presents a decision analytic approach to resolving some of those issues. A methodology for developing a radiological risk measure is presented, and several approaches to defining acceptable levels of that risk measure are considered. The methodology presented is oriented toward the development of radiological performance objectives for use as guidance in the drafting of regulations

204

Keeping focus on earthquakes at school for seismic risk mitigation of the next generations  

Science.gov (United States)

The knowledge of the seismic history of its own territory, the understanding of physical phenomena in response to an earthquake, the changes in the cultural heritage following a strong earthquake, the learning of actions to be taken during and after an earthquake, are piece of information that contribute to keep focus on the seismic hazard and to implement strategies for seismic risk mitigation. The training of new generations, today more than ever subject to rapid forgetting of past events, becomes therefore a key element to increase the perception that earthquakes happened and can happen at anytime and that mitigation actions are the only means to ensure the safety and to reduce damages and human losses. Since several years our institute (OGS) is involved in activities to raise awareness of education on earthquake. We aim to implement education programs with the goal of addressing a critical approach to seismic hazard reduction, differentiating the types of activities according to the age of the students. However, being such kind of activity unfunded, we can act at now only on a very limited number of schools per year. To be effective, the inclusion of the seismic risk issues in school curricula requires specific time and appropriate approaches when planning activities. For this reason, we involve also the teachers as proponents of activities and we encourage them to keep alive memories and discussion on earthquake in the classes. During the past years we acted mainly in the schools of the Friuli Venezia Giulia area (NE Italy), that is an earthquake prone area struck in 1976 by a destructive seismic event (Ms=6.5). We organized short training courses for teachers, we lectured classes, and we led laboratory activities with students. Indeed, being well known that students enjoy classes more when visual and active learning are joined, we propose a program that is composed by seminars, demonstrations and hands-on activities in the classrooms; for high school students we propose summer stages at the OGS Seismological Department. Some examples of education activities we performed during the last two years are here presented. Starting with kids at kindergartens, where we propose play and story-telling activities with the final goal to prepare them on what to do in case an earthquake occurs, we show our experience with the primary and intermediate schools where, through hands-on activities, we reproduce and explain the earthquake phenomenon and its effects. Then we illustrate the work of high school students who, under the guidance of an expert seismologist, designed and performed a microzonation study in Gemona del Friuli, a small town that was severely damaged by the 1976 earthquake. Satisfaction questionnaires and feedback by students and teachers help us to assess the effectiveness of our efforts as well as to improve our next actions.

Saraò, Angela; Barnaba, Carla; Peruzza, Laura

2013-04-01

205

The Measuring Method of Risk with Energy  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Since Harry. M. Markowitz published ‘portfolio Selection’ (1952, financial economists have proposed many methods to measure risk such as variant, downside-variant, average
absolute deviation, maximum deviation, VaR and so on. However, these methods share a common limitation, which only consider moment of the price, not consider the influence of exchange quantity. In common situation, these methods and their financial theory models can help investors prevent and scatter the risks effectively, but they are no effective to
prevent the financial crisis such as Southeast Asia financial in1997 and LTCM crisis in 1998. In this paper, a new method of measuring risk called energy-risk has been proposed. The aim to this method is to respond the usual risk as well as the risk caused by unexpected event and to prevent the risks under any circumstances effectively.

Xin Lin

2009-07-01

206

MODERN RISK MEASURES FOR INDIVIDUAL HIGHER EDUCATION INVESTMENT RISK EVALUATION  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available One of the reasons why people get degree and participate in organized education is that they want to raise their human capital or signal their inner abilities to future employers by sorting themselves out. In both cases they can expect return to their investment, because they can expect higher life-time earnings than those who do not have degree. In this paper we will refer this activity as higher education investment or education investment. In this paper the investment of the state into educating their citizens will not be considered. The question of this paper will develop the findings of Vona (2014. I suggested to introduce modern risk measures because individual risk-taking became a serious question. It was considered that modern risk measures can help to solve some issues with the relation of investment and risk. However before applying some measures from a different field of science, namely investment finance and financial mathematics, to another, economics of education, there must be a very careful consideration, because there are debate over these measures applicability even on their field of science. Value at Risk is not coherent and Expected Shortfall is only one of a great deal of possible tail loss measures. For this reason it will be discussed in detail how should we should adopt the measures, what kind of data is necessary for calculating this risk measures and what kind of new insight they can bring. With the aid of a numerical example it will be shown that with expected shortfall measure we can reflect some large losses, and potential high value of diversification. We show the value at risk based measure is not coherent and this means it points out something different in this environment. It is can be an indicator of loss in opportunities for high end returns.

Vona Mate

2014-07-01

207

The Use of the Integrated Medical Model for Forecasting and Mitigating Medical Risks for a Near-Earth Asteroid Mission  

Science.gov (United States)

Introduction The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission managers and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight. Methods Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of medical events, crew health metrics, medical resource utilization, and probability estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM can also optimize medical kits within the constraints of mass and volume for specified missions. The IMM was used to forecast medical evacuation and loss of crew life probabilities, as well as crew health metrics for a near-earth asteroid (NEA) mission. An optimized medical kit for this mission was proposed based on the IMM simulation. Discussion The IMM can provide information to the space program regarding medical risks, including crew medical impairment, medical evacuation and loss of crew life. This information is valuable to mission managers and the space medicine community in assessing risk and developing mitigation strategies. Exploration missions such as NEA missions will have significant mass and volume constraints applied to the medical system. Appropriate allocation of medical resources will be critical to mission success. The IMM capability of optimizing medical systems based on specific crew and mission profiles will be advantageous to medical system designers. Conclusion The IMM is a decision support tool that can provide estimates of the impact of medical events on human space flight missions, such as crew impairment, evacuation, and loss of crew life. It can be used to support the development of mitigation strategies and to propose optimized medical systems for specified space flight missions. Learning Objectives The audience will learn how an evidence-based decision support tool can be used to help assess risk, develop mitigation strategies, and optimize medical systems for exploration space flight missions.

Kerstman, Eric; Saile, Lynn; Freire de Carvalho, Mary; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Lopez, Vilma

2011-01-01

208

Resolving problems in repository siting: a review of issues and mitigation measures  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

There is a need for a systematic evaluation of impact management measures which could be used in connection with the development of a nuclear waste repository. This chapter is concerned with the identification of problems likely to be encountered and evaluation of impact mitigation measures. It outlines the role that past experiences might play in dealing with the socioeconomic impacts, and reviews the models of negotiation and arbitration procedures as well as the planning programs, monitoring agreements, and impact assistance legislation. A combination of past strategies with site-specific information appears to be the strongest approach. 2 tables

209

Measurement and mitigation of nitrous oxide emissions from a high nitrogen input vegetable system  

Science.gov (United States)

The emission and mitigation of nitrous oxide (N2O) from high nitrogen (N) vegetable systems is not well understood. Nitrification inhibitors are widely used to decrease N2O emissions in many cropping systems. However, most N2O flux measurements and inhibitor impacts have been made with small chambers and have not been investigated at a paddock-scale using micrometeorological techniques. We quantified N2O fluxes over a four ha celery paddock using open-path Fourier Transform Infrared spectroscopy in conjunction with a backward Lagrangian stochastic model, in addition to using a closed chamber technique. The celery crop was grown on a sandy soil in southern Victoria, Australia. The emission of N2O was measured following the application of chicken manure and N fertilizer with and without the application of a nitrification inhibitor 3, 4-dimethyl pyrazole phosphate (DMPP). The two techniques consistently demonstrated that DMPP application reduced N2O emission by 37-44%, even though the N2O fluxes measured by a micrometeorological technique were more than 10 times higher than the small chamber measurements. The results suggest that nitrification inhibitors have the potential to mitigate N2O emission from intensive vegetable production systems, and that the national soil N2O emission inventory assessments and modelling predictions may vary with gas measurement techniques.

Lam, Shu Kee; Suter, Helen; Davies, Rohan; Bai, Mei; Sun, Jianlei; Chen, Deli

2015-02-01

210

Harmonic Generation and Mitigation by Full-Scale Converter Wind Turbines: : Measurements and Simulations  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

This paper shows that wind turbine harmonic generation and mitigation assessment are complex tasks, and many aspects, such as measurements, data processing, modelling and validation, must be taken into consideration. The paper describes the measurement process and shows sophisticated analyses on representative harmonic measurements of the wind turbine generators at Avedøre Holme. The nature of generation and mitigation of harmonic components in the wind turbine generators are clearly presented and explained. The mechanism of harmonic generation, some dynamic behaviour aspects and interaction with the external network are considered. Measurement, data processing and simulation results are presented and compared. Different analysis methods, such as statistical analysis, harmonic calculation, and mathematical description are applied and described in detail. Some issues regarding commonly applied standards are also put forward in the paper. Based on measurements and simulations, it is shown that a general overview of the behaviour of a wind turbine generator cannot be fully observed only based on harmonic current analyses as suggested in the standards.

Kocewiak, Lukasz Hubert; Hjerrild, Jesper

2011-01-01

211

A virtual community and cyberinfrastructure for collaboration in volcano research and risk mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

VHub (short for VolcanoHub, and accessible at vhub.org) is an online platform for collaboration in research and training related to volcanoes, the hazards they pose, and risk mitigation. The underlying concept is to provide a mechanism that enables workers to share information with colleagues around the globe; VHub and similar hub technologies could prove very powerful in collaborating and communicating about circum-Pacific volcanic hazards. Collaboration occurs around several different points: (1) modeling and simulation; (2) data sharing; (3) education and training; (4) volcano observatories; and (5) project-specific groups. VHub promotes modeling and simulation in two ways: (1) some models can be implemented on VHub for online execution. This eliminates the need to download and compile a code on a local computer. VHub can provide a central "warehouse" for such models that should result in broader dissemination. VHub also provides a platform that supports the more complex CFD models by enabling the sharing of code development and problem-solving knowledge, benchmarking datasets, and the development of validation exercises. VHub also provides a platform for sharing of data and datasets. The VHub development team is implementing the iRODS data sharing middleware (see irods.org). iRODS allows a researcher to access data that are located at participating data sources around the world (a "cloud" of data) as if the data were housed in a single virtual database. Education and training is another important use of the VHub platform. Audio-video recordings of seminars, PowerPoint slide sets, and educational simulations are all items that can be placed onto VHub for use by the community or by selected collaborators. An important point is that the "manager" of a given educational resource (or any other resource, such as a dataset or a model) can control the privacy of that resource, ranging from private (only accessible by, and known to, specific collaborators) to completely public. Materials for use in the classroom can be shared via VHub. VHub is a very useful platform for project-specific collaborations. With a group site on VHub where collaborators share documents, datasets, maps, and have ongoing discussions using the discussion board function. VHub is funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation, and is participating in development of larger earth-science cyberinfrastructure initiatives (EarthCube), as well as supporting efforts such as the Global Volcano Model.

Valentine, G. A.

2012-12-01

212

NASA Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation Remediation Technology Collaboration Development  

Science.gov (United States)

NASA is committed to finding solutions to agency cleanup problems that are better, cheaper, and more effective than the status quo. Unfortunately, some potential solutions involve innovative technologies for which NASA remediation managers may not have a high level of understanding or confidence. Since 2004, NASA's Stennis Space Center (SSC) in Mississippi has been pumping groundwater contaminated with trichloroethylene (TCE) and other halogenated volatile organic compounds (HVOC) from their cleanup location designated "Area G" through extraction wells to an aboveground treatment system. Over time, however, the effectiveness of this treatment strategy has diminished and an alternative approach is needed. In 2012, professionals from NASA's Principal Center for Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation (TEERM) introduced SSC managers to an innovative technology for enhancing the performance of SSC's existing pump and treat system. The technology, generally referred to as in situ chemical oxidation (ISCO), involves slowly and continuously injecting a strong but safe chemical oxidant into the groundwater. Treatment is enhanced by a "surfactant-type effect" which causes residual contamination from saturated soil to be released into the dissolved-phase where it can be readily oxidized. Any dissolved-phase contamination that was not oxidized can be collected by the extraction well network and treated aboveground. SSC was not familiar with the technology so to increase their confidence, TEERM identified a contractor who was willing to demonstrate their product and process at a significantly reduced price. An initial, small-scale demonstration of ISCO began at sse in March 2012 and completed in August 2012. This successful demonstration was followed by three larger-scale ISCO demonstrations between August and December 2012. The contractor's innovative Continuous Injection System (CIS) incorporated "green" and sustainable technologies and practices. A slow injection rate was maintained autonomously by the CIS, eliminating the need for multiple mobilizations of personnel and powered equipment. The CIS was calibrated to deliver only as much reagent as the formation would accept without "short circuiting", minimizing material waste. Public utility water pressure was used to mix, dilute, and inject the reagent. NASA personnel were trained to operate and maintain the system and remote monitoring and injection control capabilities were developed, further reducing the need for contractor mobilizations to the site. An integrated solar photovoltaic panel was used to power the control valves and web monitoring telemetry. SSC provided hydrogen peroxide for the process using their existing supplier for the aboveground pump and treat systems. The only consumable required from the contractor was their proprietary activator to catalyze SSC's peroxide.

Romeo, James

2013-01-01

213

Measurement Decision Risk - The Importance of Definitions  

Science.gov (United States)

One of the more misunderstood areas of metrology is the Test Uncertainty Ratio (TUR) and the Test Accuracy Ratio (TAR). There have been many definitions over the years, but why are these definitions important to a discussion on measurement decision risk? The importance lies in the clarity of communication. Problems can immediately arise in the application (or misapplication) of the definition of these terms. In other words, while it is important to understand the definitions, it is more important to understand concepts behind the definitions and to be precise in how they are applied. The objective of any measurement is a decision. Measurement Decision Risk is a way to look at the quality of a measurement, and although it is not a new concept, it has generated a lot of attention since its addition as a requirement in the new U.S. National Standard, ANSIINCSL Z540.3-2006. In addition to Measurement Decision Risk as the prime method of managing measurement risk, Z540.3 has added, as a fall-back, an explicit definition for TUR. The impact these new requirements may have on calibration service providers has become the topic of much discussion and in some cases concern. This paper will look at the concepts behind the definitions and how they relate to Measurement Decision Risk. Using common examples, this paper will also provide a comparison of various elements of risk related to measurement science using the concepts of TAR, TUR, accuracy ratios, and Consumer Risk (False Accept Risk). The goal of this paper is to provide a better understanding of their relevance to the measurement decision process.

Mimbs, Scott M.

2008-01-01

214

On representing claims for coherent risk measures  

CERN Document Server

We consider the problem of representing claims for coherent risk measures. For this purpose we introduce the concept of (weak and strong) time-consistency with respect to a portfolio of assets, generalizing the one defined by Delbaen. In a similar way we extend the notion of m-stability, by introducing weak and strong versions. We then prove that the two concepts of m-stability and time-consistency are still equivalent, thus giving necessary and sufficient conditions for a coherent risk measure to be represented by a market with proportional transaction costs. We go on to deduce that, under a separability assumption, any coherent risk measure is strongly time-consistent with respect to a suitably chosen countable portfolio, and show the converse: that any market with proportional transaction costs is equivalent to a market priced by a coherent risk measure, essentially establishing the equivalence of the two concepts.

Jacka, Saul

2007-01-01

215

On a relationship between distorted and spectral risk measures  

OpenAIRE

We study the relationship between two widely used risk measures, the spectral measures and the distortion risk measures. In both cases, the risk measure can be thought of as a re-weighting of some initial distribution. We prove that spectral risk measures are equivalent to distorted risk pricing measures, or equivalently, spectral risk functions are related to distortion functions. Besides that we prove that distorted measures are absolutely continuous with respect to the original measure. Th...

Henryk, Gzyl; Silvia, Mayoral

2006-01-01

216

Measurements of risk in fisheries management  

OpenAIRE

An important goal in many fisheries management problems is perceived to be minimisation of risk. This paper examines the problem of measuring risk by means of meaningful attributes or surrogate measures, for use in multiple criteria decision support systems. It is found that exponential utility functions, which are associated in this context with geometric discounting of the future, give a poor fit in many cases relative to power functions. The implication is that conventional mean-variance m...

Stewart, T. J.

2014-01-01

217

Intelligent system for risk mitigation Sistema Inteligente de Mitigación de Riesgos.  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available the accumulation of experiences in project design, and the emergence of standards organizations and engaged in planning and administration of the same, have allowed their development has become an activity planned and controlled. Risk management during the life cycle of software development is a complex process closely linked to the domain with the development team on the subject. In its correct management will depend largely on the results, taking into account both technological advantages for the team will bring economic development, mitigating them. To have a tool that automates this, streamline the decision-making process, is essential. In Artificial Intelligence there are different knowledge-based techniques that allow solution of problems in different ways. One of the most common techniques is knowledge Based Systems, which are computer systems that use domain knowledge to solve problems pertaining to this. This solution is essentially the same as that obtained by a person experienced in the problem domain. It is of great importance to use the advantages provided by this type of systems for developing applications to streamline the process of managing risks. To this will be discussed in this article, showing that facilitates the use of minimal resources and higher quality.

La acumulación de experiencias en la concepción de proyectos, el surgimiento de organizaciones y estándares dedicados a la planificación y administración de los mismos, han permitido que su desarrollo se haya convertido en una actividad planificada y controlada. La gestión de riesgos es un proceso complejo estrechamente vinculado al dominio que tenga el equipo de desarrollo sobre el tema. De su correcta gestión dependerán gran parte de los resultados, teniendo en cuenta las ventajas que tanto tecnológicas como económicas reportará para el equipo de desarrollo la mitigación de los mismos. Los riesgos han de analizarse para propiciar el aprovechamiento de las diversas oportunidades que puedan ofrecer y de la misma forma, evitar que sean muy severos e irreparables, los daños que puedan provocar. Los sistemas basados en casos (SBC ayudan y agilizan la toma de decisiones simulando las cadenas de razonamiento que realiza un experto para resolver un problema de su dominio. Su vinculación con distintos elementos del proceso de desarrollo de software posibilita la obtención de resultados más acertados a partir del conocimiento que se les introduce basado en la experiencia acumulada. Actualmente el centro de Informatización para la Seguridad Ciudadana ISEC, ha enfrentado dificultades para una rápida y acertada gestión de riesgos. La utilización de las facilidades que brindan los SBC para la gestión de riesgos resultaría ventajoso al brindar las herramientas necesarias para que los líderes de proyecto, basados en experiencias anteriores, realicen una planificación más acertada, teniendo en cuenta los diversos contratiempos que pudieran surgir.

Yadira Ruiz Constanten

2012-09-01

218

Lessons Learnt and Mitigation Measures for the CERN LHC Equipment with RF fingers  

CERN Document Server

Beam-induced RF heating has been observed in several LHC components when the bunch/beam intensity was increased and/or the bunch length reduced. In particular eight bellows, out of the ten double-bellow modules present in the machine in 2011, were found with the spring, which should keep the RF fingers in good electrical contact with the central insert, broken. Following these observations, the designs of all the components of the LHC equipped with RF fingers have been reviewed. The lessons learnt and mitigation measures are presented in this paper.

Métral, E; Assmann, R W; Baglin, V; Barnes, M J; Berrig, O E; Bertarelli, A; Bregliozzi, G; Calatroni, S; Carra, F; Caspers, F; Day, H A; Ferro-Luzzi, M; Gallilee, M A; Garion, C; Garlasche, M; Grudiev, A; Jimenez, J M; Jones, R; Kononenko, O; Losito, R; Nougaret, J L; Parma, V; Redaelli, S; Salvant, B; Strubin, P; Veness, R; Vollinger, C; Weterings, W

2013-01-01

219

Benthic community recovery from brine impact after the implementation of mitigation measures.  

Science.gov (United States)

In many regions, seawater desalination is a growing industry that has its impact on benthic communities. This study analyses the effect on benthic communities of a mitigation measure applied to a brine discharge, using polychaete assemblages as indicator. An eight-year study was conducted at San Pedro del Pinatar (SE Spain) establishing a grid of 12 sites at a depth range of 29-38 m during autumn. Brine discharge started in 2006 and produced a significant decrease in abundance, richness and diversity of polychaete families at the location closest to the discharge, where salinity reached 49. In 2010, a diffuser was deployed at the end of the pipeline in order to increase the mixing, to reduce the impact on benthic communities. After implementation of this mitigation measure, the salinity measured close to discharge was less than 38.5 and a significant recovery in polychaete richness and diversity was detected, to levels similar to those before the discharge. A less evident recovery in abundance was also observed, probably due to different recovery rates of polychaete families. Some families like Paraonidae and Magelonidae were more tolerant to this impact. Others like Syllidae and Capitellidae recovered quickly, although still affected by the discharge, while some families such as Sabellidae and Cirratulidae appeared to recover more slowly. PMID:25543242

Del-Pilar-Ruso, Yoana; Martinez-Garcia, Elena; Giménez-Casalduero, Francisca; Loya-Fernández, Angel; Ferrero-Vicente, Luis Miguel; Marco-Méndez, Candela; de-la-Ossa-Carretero, Jose Antonio; Sánchez-Lizaso, José Luis

2015-03-01

220

The costs and efficacy of sediment mitigation measures for representative farm types across England and Wales  

Science.gov (United States)

A major collaborative research project in the UK is delivering new science to support improved targeting of on-farm pollution mitigation measures for the benefit of freshwater ecology. One important aspect of the project concerns a national scale evaluation of the costs and efficacy of packages of sediment mitigation measures which can be delivered over and above the existing implementation of abatement through various policy instruments including advice and new targeted agri-environment schemes. The assessment includes typical farm types present across England and Wales. Outputs from this assessment of costs and efficacy will eventually be used to help model the potential for closing the sediment pollution gap in those water bodies currently failing water quality targets due to sediment loss from agriculture. Some preliminary uncertainty ranges in costs (-£146,402 to £175,631) and effectiveness (0-80%) associated with a potential policy scenario implementing a large number (up to 93) of abatement measures at 95% uptake are presented in this paper.

Collins, A. L.; Zhang, Y.; Naden, P.

2015-03-01

221

Hard Sludge Formation in Modern Steam Generators of Nuclear Power Plants Formation, Risks and Mitigation  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This article will discuss the physical and chemical reasons for the increased tendency to form hard sludge on the secondary side of modern nuclear steam generators (SG). The mechanism of hard sludge induced denting will be explained. Moreover, advice on operation and maintenance to mitigate hard sludge formation and denting damages will be presented.

Strohmer, F.

2013-07-01

222

Assessment of human thermal comfort and mitigation measures in different urban climatotopes  

Science.gov (United States)

This study analyses thermal comfort in the model city of Oberhausen as an example for the densely populated metropolitan region Ruhr, Germany. As thermal loads increase due to climate change negative impacts especially for city dwellers will arise. Therefore mitigation strategies should be developed and considered in urban planning today to prevent future thermal stress. The method consists of the combination of in-situ measurements and numerical model simulations. So in a first step the actual thermal situation is determined and then possible mitigation strategies are derived. A measuring network was installed in eight climatotopes for a one year period recording air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and wind direction. Based on these parameters the human thermal comfort in terms of physiological equivalent temperature (PET) was calculated by RayMan Pro software. Thus the human comfort of different climatotopes was determined. Heat stress in different land uses varies, so excess thermal loads in urban areas could be detected. Based on the measuring results mitigation strategies were developed, such as increasing areas with high evaporation capacity (green areas and water bodies). These strategies were implemented as different plan scenarios in the microscale urban climate model ENVI-met. The best measure should be identified by comparing the range and effect of these scenarios. Simulations were run in three of the eight climatotopes (city center, suburban and open land site) to analyse the effectiveness of the mitigation strategies in several land use structures. These cover the range of values of all eight climatotopes and therefore provide representative results. In the model area of 21 ha total, the modified section in the different plan scenarios was 1 ha. Thus the effect of small-scale changes could be analysed. Such areas can arise due to population decline and structural changes and hold conversion potential. Emphasis was also laid on analysing the effectiveness of water bodies, which need further research in contrast to well analysed vegetation areas. Results show different thermal loads in the miscellaneous climatotopes due to land use structures. Both measurements and model simulations demonstrate the positive effect on thermal comfort due to augmentation of areas with high evaporation capacity. These effects can be especially well detected in summer, when heat stress is most pronounced. The measurement based PET calculations show a maximum difference of 4 K PET between inner city and open land site in summer nights. Simulation results overall present a PET reduction of 1-3 K. The average PET reduction in the city center site is about 2 K, while the maximum reduction in the suburban site can exceed 5 K. In urban areas parks are particularly advisable as mitigation measure, because they reduce thermal stress both by tree shading and evapotranspiration.

Müller, N.; Kuttler, W.

2012-04-01

223

Observational studies in South African mines to mitigate seismic risks: implications for mine safety and tectonic earthquakes  

Science.gov (United States)

Seismicity poses a significant risk to workers in deep and overstressed mines, such as the gold mines in the Witwatersrand basin of South Africa, as well as inhabitants of earthquake-prone regions such as Japan. A 5-year collaborative project entitled "Observational studies in South African mines to mitigate seismic risks" was launched in 2010 to address these risks, drawing on over a century of South African and Japanese research experience with respect to mining-related and tectonic earthquakes, respectively. The project has three main aims: (1) to learn more about earthquake preparation and triggering mechanisms by deploying arrays of sensitive sensors within rock volumes where mining is likely to induce seismic activity; (2) to learn more about earthquake rupture and rockburst damage phenomena by deploying robust strong ground motion sensors close to potential fault zones and on stope hangingwalls; and (3) to upgrade the South African surface national seismic network in the mining districts. Research sites have been established at mines operated by Sibanye Gold (Hlanganani Shaft and Cooke #4 Shaft) and Anglogold Ashanti (Moab-Khotsong). More than 70 boreholes (totalling more than 2.8 km in length) have been drilled to locate "capable" faults i.e. faults that are considered likely to become seismically active as a result of mining activity and to deploy sensors. Acoustic emission sensors, strain- and tilt meters, and controlled seismic sources were installed to monitor the deformation of the rock mass, the accumulation of damage during the earthquake preparation phase, and changes in dynamic stress produced by the propagation of the rupture front. These data are being integrated with measurements of rock properties, stope closure, stope strong motion, seismic data recorded by the mine-wide network, and stress modelling. The mid-point of the 5-year project has passed. New observations of stress and the response of the rock mass to mining have already been made, and many more are expected in the next two years as the mining front sweeps through the monitoring arrays. We will describe examples of technology adaptation and transfer, as well as preliminary research findings. The strain cell and associated tools required for the compact conical-ended borehole overcoring (CCBO) technique, which determines the 3D stress tensor by a single overcoring of a strain cell, have been reduced to the core size used in South African mines. This modified method was tested at three sites, where it was demonstrated that three overcoring measurements can be made within two shifts. A large number of acoustic emission (AE) sensors were installed at Cooke #4 mine. In the period from 30 September to 5 October in 2011 the monitoring system automatically located 40,555 AE, some of which were located by Moriya et al. using the joint hypocenter location method. Moriya et al. applied the multiplet and the double-difference analysis to the selected multiplets, successfully delineating multiple planar structures. Ultimately we hope that this project will produce knowledge and technology that will reduce the risk posed by both mining-induced and tectonic earthquakes

Durrheim, Raymond; Ogaswara, Hiroshi; Nakatani, Masao; Yabe, Yasuo; Milev, Alexander; Cichowicz, Artur; Kawakata, Hironori; Moriya, Hirokazu; Naoi, Makoto; Kgarume, Thabang; Murakami, Osamu; Mngadi, Siyanda

2014-05-01

224

Soil physical conditions as livestock treading effect in tropical Agroecosystem of dryland and strategies to mitigate desertification risk  

Science.gov (United States)

Soil degradation in natural ecosystem of arid and semi-arid zones of Venezuela due to livestock treading (goats) it is an important problem that affect their environment functions; increase soil erodibility, bulk density, water losses and reduce porosity, water infiltration rate and soil structural stability. The presence of biological crust (BSC) in this type of soil it is very common. The objective of this study was to evaluate the soil surface physical quality through the use of selected indicators, mainly some of that related to structural stability, infiltrability and the prediction of soil erosion risk in two zones of Lara state: 1) Quíbor (QUI) and 2) Humocaro Bajo (HB). The study was conducted on two selected plots (30 m x 20 m) in each zone, with natural vegetation and BSC cover, with areas affected by different degree of compaction due to treading in the paths where the goats are moving. Five sites per plot (50 cm x 50 cm) under vegetation cover and five sites over the path with bare soil were sampled (0-7,5 and 7,5-15 cm depth). The results showed that soil macroaggregate stability (equivalent diameter of aggregates >0,25 mm) was significantly higher (psoil with vegetation cover and BSC compared with bare soil. Sealing index, as a measure of aggregate stability, determined in laboratory under simulated rain and expressed as hydraulic conductivity of soil surface sealing (Kse), decreased with decreasing soil vegetation cover and the presence of BSC. However, Ksei (i: inicial) and Ksef (f: final) were significantly greater in soil with more than 75 % of BSC in comparison to bare soils. The sealing index it is used to for to estimate changes in soil water losses. As the sealing index increases, the susceptibility of the soil to undergo surface sealing or slaking decrease. These results suggested that soil physical properties are potential indicators of soil quality with regard to soil erodibility and showed that soils under vegetation cover had higher quality level than bare soils. Some predictive regression equation had a high R2 value and was a useful tool for to evaluate the risk of extreme climatic changes and to mitigate their detrimental effects. We conclude that the global climatic change (CCG) will have a negative effect on these agroecosystems functions, mainly in soil and water conservation, carbon sequestration, and productivity. Natural recovery of soil physical properties from treading damage of pastoral soils will be possible in the future with the implementation of soil management strategies, mainly through re-vegetation and recuperation of the BSC. Key word: Soil structure; aggregate stability; soil sealing index; hydraulic conductivity of surface sealing.

Florentino, A.; Torres, D.; Ospina, A.; Contreras, J.; Palma, Z.; Silvera, J.

2012-04-01

225

Engineering Biochar Hydrophobicity to Mitigate Risk of Top-Soil Erosion  

Science.gov (United States)

The pyrolysis of biomass is a net carbon negative method of sequestering atmospheric carbon as recalcitrant black carbon. The resulting solid product, called biochar, is likely to improve agricultural soils when used as a soil conditioner in sustainable land management practice. Biochar has been shown to improve crop yields, improve water-holding capacity in sandy soils, increase cation exchange capacity (CEC), and retain nutrients from fertilization longer than soils unamended with biochar. Biochar undoubtedly has high potential as both a carbon management tool and a tool to increase global food production. However, little is understood about possible side effects of biochar in agricultural soils such as ecosystem toxicity, interactions with biota, and modification of soil hydrologic properties, such as permeability. The hydrophobicity of a soil determines how easily precipitation can permeate soil pores. Water that fails to permeate is redirected as runoff, responsible for the detachment and transport of nutrient-rich topsoil particles. Mitigating top-soil erosion is an important aspect of sustainable land management. Biochar, primarily composed of condensed aromatic structures, is a hydrophobic material and incorporating it into agricultural soils may act to alter soil hydrology through multiple avenues. These include a likely increase in soil water-holding capacity (a positive outcome) and a potential increase in soil hydrophobicity (a negative outcome). In an effort to understand how to engineer reduced biochar hydrophobicity, we investigated the hydrophobicity of biochars as a function of biomass feedstock, pyrolysis temperatures, and post-pyrolysis chemical treatments. We used Water Drop Penetration Time (WDPT) and Molarity of an Ethanol Drop (MED) tests to measure hydrophobicity, and FTIR, CPMAS-NMR, and N2-BET to probe the surface chemistry, bulk chemistry, and surface area of various biochars, respectively. We used post-pyrolysis chemical treatments of biochar to study the origin of biochar hydrophobicity and to assess the possibility of reducing hydrophobicity prior to soil amendment. We used correlative analysis to study the relationship between hydrophobicity, biomass and pyrolysis characteristics, as well as chemical treatments. Future work will focus on engineering designer biochars which minimize hydrophobicity while maximizing positive benefits, such as ion exchange capacity.

Kinney, T. J.; Dean, M. R.; Hockaday, W. C.; Masiello, C. A.

2009-12-01

226

The instability of downside risk measures  

OpenAIRE

We study the feasibility and noise sensitivity of portfolio optimization under some downside risk measures (Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and semivariance) when they are estimated by fitting a parametric distribution on a finite sample of asset returns. We find that the existence of the optimum is a probabilistic issue, depending on the particular random sample, in all three cases. At a critical combination of the parameters of these problems we find an algorithmic phas...

Varga-haszonits, Istvan; Kondor, Imre

2008-01-01

227

Risk measures with non-Gaussian fluctuations  

CERN Document Server

Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modeling the power-law tails of the returns distribution in terms of a Student-$t$ (or Tsallis) distribution. Non-Gaussian closed-form solutions for Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall are obtained and standard formulae known in the literature under the normality assumption are recovered as a special case. The implications of the approach for risk management are demonstrated through an empirical analysis of financial time series from the Italian stock market. Detailed comparison with the results of the widely used procedures of quantitative finance, such as parametric normal approach, RiskMetrics methodology and historical simulation, as well as with previous findings in the literature, are shown and commented. Particular attention is paid to quantify the size of the errors affecting the risk measures obtaine...

Bormetti, G; Montagna, G; Nicrosini, O

2006-01-01

228

Money Matters: Mitigating risk to spark private investments in energy efficiency  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Scaling-up investment in energy efficiency is essential to achieving a sustainable energy future. Despite energy efficiency's recognised advantages as a bankable investment with immense climate change mitigation benefits, most of the energy efficiency potential remains untapped and the investment gap to achieve climate goals is tremendous. This report seeks to improve understanding as to why this is so, and what can be done about it.

NONE

2010-07-01

229

Soil bio-engineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area  

OpenAIRE

The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on authochtonal plants suitable for this kind of works and on economic efficiency is essential for the divulgation of such techniques. The present paper is focused on this two issues related to the realization of various typologies of soil bio-engineering works in the humid tropic of Nicaragua.


...

Petrone, A.; Preti, F.

2009-01-01

230

Analysis of hydrogen risk mitigation with passive autocatalytic recombiner system in CPR1000 NPP during a hypothetical station blackout  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Highlights: ? We analyze the hydrogen risk in CPR1000 during station blackout with GASFLOW code. ? Hydrogen detonation likely occurs during the accident. ? Application of PAR system could eliminate the hydrogen risk. ? The condensation model with McAdams correlation performs better in validation work. ? It predicts the hydrogen risk conservatively in some compartments. - Abstract: Hydrogen safety has attracted extensive concern in severe accident analysis especially after the Fukushima accident. In this study, a similar station blackout as happened in Fukushima accident is simulated for CPR1000 nuclear power plant (NPP) model, with the computational fluid dynamic code GASFLOW. The hydrogen risk is analyzed with the assessment of efficiency of passive autocatalytic recombiner (PAR) system. The numerical results show that the CPR1000 containment may be damaged by global flame acceleration (FA) and local detonation caused by hydrogen combustion if no hydrogen mitigation system (HMS) is applied. A new condensation model is developed and validated in this study for the consideration of natural circulation flow pattern and presence of non-condensable gases. The new condensation model is more conservative in hydrogen risk evaluation than the current model in some compartments, giving earlier starting time of deflagration to detonation transition (DDT). The results also indicate that the PAR system installed in CPR1000 could prevent the occurrence of the FA and DDT.he occurrence of the FA and DDT. Therefore, HMS such as PAR system is suggested to be applied in NPPs to avoid the radioactive leak caused by containment failure.

231

Quantitative Measures of Mineral Supply Risk  

Science.gov (United States)

Almost all metals and many non-metallic minerals are traded internationally. An advantage of global mineral markets is that minerals can be obtained from the globally lowest-cost source. For example, one rare-earth element (REE) mine in China, Bayan Obo, is able to supply most of world demand for rare earth elements at a cost significantly less than its main competitors. Concentration of global supplies at a single mine raises significant political risks, illustrated by China’s recent decision to prohibit the export of some REEs and severely limit the export of others. The expected loss of REE supplies will have a significant impact on the cost and production of important national defense technologies and on alternative energy programs. Hybrid vehicles and wind-turbine generators, for example, require REEs for magnets and batteries. Compact fluorescent light bulbs use REE-based phosphors. These recent events raise the general issue of how to measure the degree of supply risk for internationally sourced minerals. Two factors, concentration of supply and political risk, must first be addressed. Concentration of supply can be measured with standard economic tools for measuring industry concentration, using countries rather than firms as the unit of analysis. There are many measures of political risk available. That of the OECD is a measure of a country’s commitment to rule-of-law and enforcement of contracts, as well as political stability. Combining these measures provides a comparative view of mineral supply risk across commodities and identifies several minerals other than REEs that could suddenly become less available. Combined with an assessment of the impact of a reduction in supply, decision makers can use these measures to prioritize risk reduction efforts.

Long, K. R.

2009-12-01

232

Portfolio Optimization with Spectral Measures of Risk  

OpenAIRE

We study Spectral Measures of Risk from the perspective of portfolio optimization. We derive exact results which extend to general Spectral Measures M_phi the Pflug--Rockafellar--Uryasev methodology for the minimization of alpha--Expected Shortfall. The minimization problem of a spectral measure is shown to be equivalent to the minimization of a suitable function which contains additional parameters, but displays analytical properties (piecewise linearity and convexity in al...

Carlo, Acerbi; Prospero, Simonetti

2002-01-01

233

Raptor mortality in wind farms of southern Spain: mitigation measures on a major migration bottleneck area  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Full text: To assess and monitor the impact of wind farms on fauna is crucial if we want to achieve ecologically sustainable development of this renewable energy resource. Today there are clear evidences that the probability of raptor collision depends critically on species behaviour and weather conditions, and the topographic factors related to each windmill. In our study area EIA were not able to predict this differential risk and in these circumstances mitigating the causes of bird mortality becomes a task of major importance, especially to those wind farms located in the Strait of Gibraltar, a water crossing of 14 km at its shortest distance acting as a major migration bottleneck for Paleo-African soaring migrants. We collected all available information on raptor collision from 1992, when the first wind farm was installed, and from 2005 until present a total of 262 turbines, grouped into 20 wind farms, were surveyed in a daily basis through a surveillance program with the main goal of register the actual mortality of birds. A total of 1291 raptors of 19 species were found of which 78.5% correspond to two species, the griffon vulture (Gyps fulvus) and the kestrel (Falco tinnunculus). In order to mitigate the impact on raptors, and particularly on the griffon vulture, in 2007 a program based on selective stopping of turbines was imposed, in collaboration with the environmental competent authority, on new approved projects. During 2008 there was a reduction in mortality by 48%, which remained in 2009 with a remarkably lower economic cost. An analysis of the temporal collision patterns will be presented and discussed, with special attention to those species suffering higher mortality rate, and to those who have some degree of threat. (Author)

Gallego, Antonio-Roman Munoz; Lucas, Manuela De; Casado, Eva; Ferrer, Miguel

2011-07-01

234

Evaluation of possible mitigation measures to prevent introduction and spread of African swine fever virus through wild boar  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This scientific report has been prepared in response to a request for urgent scientific and technical assistance under Art 31 of Regulation (EC No 178/2002, in relation to possible mitigation measures to prevent introduction and spread of African swine fever virus (ASFV. It was requested to assess the feasibility to drastically reduce the wild boar population by hunting or by the use of traps, and to assess if prevention of movement of wild boars by feeding or by artificial physical barriers reduces the risk of spread of ASFV. No evidence was found in scientific literature proving that wild boar populations can be drastically reduced by hunting or trapping in Europe. The main reasons are the adaptive behaviour of wild boar, compensatory growth of the population and the possible influx of wild boar from adjacent areas. Thus, drastic hunting is not a tool to reduce the risk for introduction and spread of ASFV in wild boar populations. Furthermore, wild boar density thresholds for introduction, spread and persistence of ASFV in the wild boar populations are currently impossible to establish, due to the uncertainty regarding the extent of the spread and maintenance of ASFV, the biases in population datasets, the complex population structures and dynamics. Furthermore, attempts to drastically reduce wild boar populations may even increase transmission and facilitate progressive geographical spread of ASFV, since intensive hunting pressure on wild boar populations leads to dispersion of groups and individuals. Artificial feeding of wild boar might increase the risk of ASFV spread. Fencing can restrict wild boar movements, however further knowledge of the ASF epidemiology and spatial distribution of wild boar is required to identify the areas where fencing could be used as one possible element of a control programme and to assess the feasibility of its implementation.

European Food Safety Authority

2014-03-01

235

Radon mitigation in private dwellings. Summary of measures under the National Action Plan against Cancer in Norway 1999-2003  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The report summarizes the remedial measurements carried out under the National Action Plan against Cancer in Norway in the period 1999-2003.The cost effectiveness of the state subsidized remedial measures against radon is evaluated. Other measurements under the National Action Plan against Cancer have also been evaluated, such as measurements of radon in 38.000 dwellings in 158 municipalities, information measures, and actions to increase radon mitigation competence in the building construction industry and in the municipalities. (Author)

236

Risk mitigation process for utilization of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) parts in CCD camera for military applications  

Science.gov (United States)

This paper presents the lessons learned during the design and development of a high performance cooled CCD camera for military applications utilizing common commercial off the shelf (COTS) parts. Our experience showed that concurrent evaluation and testing of high risk COTS must be performed to assess their performance over the required temperature range and other special product requirements such as fuel vapor compatibility, EMI and shock susceptibility, etc. Technical, cost and schedule risks for COTS parts must also be carefully evaluated. The customer must be involved in the selection and evaluation of such parts so that the performance limitations of the selected parts are clearly understood. It is equally important to check with vendors on the availability and obsolescence of the COTS parts being considered since the electronic components are often replaced by newer, better and cheaper models in a couple of years. In summary, this paper addresses the major benefits and risks associated with using commercial and industrial parts in military products, and suggests a risk mitigation approach to ensure a smooth development phase, and predictable performance from the end product.

Ahmad, Anees; Batcheldor, Scott; Cannon, Steven C.; Roberts, Thomas E.

2002-09-01

237

Policies, measures and the monitoring needs of forest sector carbon mitigation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Forest sector mitigation options can be grouped into three categories: (1) management for carbon (C) conservation, (2) management for C storage, and (3) management for C conservation and sequestration worldwide and the average costs of achieving it. It reviews policy measures that have been successfully applied at regional and project levels toward reduction of atmospheric greenhouse gases. It also describes both national programs and jointly implemented international activities. The monitoring methods, and the items to monitor, differ across these categories. Remote sensing is a good approach for the monitoring of C conservation, but not for C substitution, which requires estimation of the fossil fuels that would be displaced and the continued monitoring of electricity generation sources. C storage, on the other hand, includes C in products which may be traded internationally. Their monitoring will require that bi- or multi-lateral protocols be set up for this purpose. 1 fig., 4 tabs., 23 refs

238

Effectiveness of radon mitigation measures in 12 houses 10 years after implementation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Results are presented of radon concentrations in 12 houses 10 years after radon mitigation measures were implemented to reduce elevated radon concentrations in the houses. The houses were part of an earlier radon research project in which the home-owners received remediation advice from radon researchers, and a single contractor carried out the reduction measures. Remediation in nine of the houses was principally by installing an internal sump, in another by installing an external sump, in one by ventilating the crawl-space under the house, and one house had had a naturally ventilated sump system built into the house and later had a fan installed to increase the sub-lab depressurisation. The measurements showed that ten years after radon reduction measurers were implemented, only 3 of 12 houses had radon concentrations under the present-day action level of 200 Bq m-3 (5.4 pCi l-1) in Norway. The results suggest that radon levels should be measured at periodic intervals after remediation, perhaps once every five years, to ensure that concentrations continue to be at acceptable levels. (author)

239

New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsk Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX): A research program towards mitigating multiple hazards and risks in Europe  

Science.gov (United States)

Scientists, engineers, civil protection and disaster managers typically treat natural hazards and risks individually. This leads to the situation where the frequent causal relationships between the different hazards and risks, e.g., earthquakes and volcanos, or floods and landslides, are ignored. Such an oversight may potentially lead to inefficient mitigation planning. As part of their efforts to confront this issue, the European Union, under its FP7 program, is supporting the New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe or MATRIX project. The focus of MATRIX is on natural hazards, in particular earthquakes, landslides, volcanos, wild fires, storms and fluvial and coastal flooding. MATRIX will endeavour to develop methods and tools to tackle multi-type natural hazards and risks within a common framework, focusing on methodologies that are suited to the European context. The work will involve an assessment of current single-type hazard and risk assessment methodologies, including a comparison and quantification of uncertainties and harmonization of single-type methods, examining the consequence of cascade effects within a multi-hazard environment, time-dependent vulnerability, decision making and support for multi-hazard mitigation and adaption, and a series of test cases. Three test sites are being used to assess the methods developed within the project (Naples, Cologne, and the French West Indies), as well as a "virtual city" based on a comprehensive IT platform that will allow scenarios not represented by the test cases to be examined. In addition, a comprehensive dissemination program that will involve national platforms for disaster management, as well as various outreach activities, will be undertaken. The MATRIX consortium consists of ten research institutions (nine European and one Canadian), an end-user (i.e., one of the European national platforms for disaster reduction) and a partner from industry.

Fleming, K. M.; Zschau, J.; Gasparini, P.; Modaressi, H.; Matrix Consortium

2011-12-01

240

Concave risk measures in international capital regulation  

CERN Document Server

We show that some specific market risk measures implied by current international capital regulation (the Basel Accords and the Capital Adequacy Directive of the European Union) violate the obvious requirement of convexity in some regions in the space of portfolio weights.

Kondor, I; Ujvarosi, T; Kondor, Imre; Szepessy, Andras; Ujvarosi, Tunde

2003-01-01

241

The role of the connectivity in the implementation of mitigation measures to reduce the impact of pesticides in the environment under Mediterranean conditions  

Science.gov (United States)

Regulation 1107/2009 of the European Commission, establishes the procedure and criteria for approval of active substances and authorization of plant protection products in Europe. One of the aspects to be considered is the assessment of the fate and behavior in the environment of pesticides In this assessment a tiered modeling approach is followed according to the models and scenarios developed by the FOrum for the Co-ordination of pesticide fate models and Their USe, (named as FOCUS models/scenarios). They consider different European scenarios to determine the predicted environmental concentration (PEC) in soil, ground water, surface water and sediment at in-field or edge-of-field scales. During the evaluation process, it is frequent to establish different mitigation measures to reduce the impact of pesticides and to ensure an acceptable risk to non-target species. Parallel to this regulatory process, the directive of sustainable use of pesticides (Directive 2009/128/EC) establishes a framework to reduce the impact of use of pesticides where the implementation of mitigation measures to protect aquatic systems and vulnerable areas will play a main role. Therefore, there is a main need to assess how the risk mitigation measures established at field level under regulation 1107/2009 are acting at landscape/catchment level. The characteristics of the climate, relief and soils in Mediterranean region provoke that soil erosion by water is common at different scales. In arable lands soil rates due to inter-rill, rill and gully erosion may exceed 10 ton/ha/year. This process may be modified by human actions. In this scheme, connectivity concept emerges as essential to understand the transfer process of surface water, sediment and micropollutants throughout catchments and the success of the implemented measures for the sustainable management of pesticides at different scales (field, landscape and catchment levels). In this work a review of published monitoring programs of pesticides (in soil, surface waters and ground waters) in different Mediterranean regions is presented in order to establish the basis to link the connectivity concept with the implementation of risk mitigation programs under these environmental conditions.

Fernández-Getino García, Ana Patricia; Alonso Prados, Elena; Alonso Prados, José Luis

2014-05-01

242

Final Report for the ZERT Project: Basic Science of Retention Issues, Risk Assessment & Measurement, Monitoring and Verification for Geologic Sequestration  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

ZERT has made major contributions to five main areas of sequestration science: improvement of computational tools; measurement and monitoring techniques to verify storage and track migration of CO{sub 2}; development of a comprehensive performance and risk assessment framework; fundamental geophysical, geochemical and hydrological investigations of CO{sub 2} storage; and investigate innovative, bio-based mitigation strategies.

Spangler, Lee; Cunningham, Alfred; Lageson, David; Melick, Jesse; Gardner, Mike; Dobeck, Laura; Repasky, Kevin; Shaw, Joseph; Bajura, Richard; McGrail, B Peter; Oldenburg, Curtis M; Wagoner, Jeff; Pawar, Rajesh

2011-03-31

243

Risk assessment and causal preventive measures.  

Science.gov (United States)

A prerequisite for preventive measures is to diagnose erosive tooth wear and to evaluate the different etiological factors in order to identify persons at risk. No diagnostic device is available for the assessment of erosive defects. Thus, they can only be detected clinically. Consequently, erosion not diagnosed at an early stage may render timely preventive measures difficult. In order to assess the risk factors, patients should record their dietary intake for a distinct period of time. Then a dentist can determine the erosive potential of the diet. A table with common beverages and foodstuffs is presented for judging the erosive potential. Particularly, patients with more than 4 dietary acid intakes have a higher risk for erosion when other risk factors are present. Regurgitation of gastric acids is a further important risk factor for the development of erosion which has to be taken into account. Based on these analyses, an individually tailored preventive program may be suggested to the patients. It may comprise dietary advice, use of calcium-enriched beverages, optimization of prophylactic regimes, stimulation of salivary flow rate, use of buffering medicaments and particular motivation for nondestructive toothbrushing habits with an erosive-protecting toothpaste as well as rinsing solutions. Since erosion and abrasion often occur simultaneously, all of the causative components must be taken into consideration when planning preventive strategies but only those important and feasible for an individual should be communicated to the patient. PMID:24993270

Lussi, Adrian; Hellwig, Elmar

2014-01-01

244

Ultrasonic Cross-Correlation Flow Measurement: Theory, Noise Contamination Mechanisms, and a Noise Mitigation Technique  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Based on past experience with ultrasonic cross-correlation flow meters in power plant environments, the presence of spatially correlated noise due to pressure waves, vibration, or sources other than transport of turbulent eddies will cause a bias in the time delays measured by the meter. Several techniques were developed to detect the existence of such correlated noise and correct for its effect at plant conditions. An analytical and experimental investigation was performed to further understand the basic physics of the noise mechanisms. The dominant error mechanisms investigated in this work were speed of sound perturbations due to pressure fluctuations and beam path length changes due to wall vibration. An analytical model was formulated which estimates the signal level of the flow meter based on the turbulent velocity field. From this model, an estimate of the system noise which would cause contamination could be determined. A test at a water tunnel facility was performed in order to evaluate the noise mechanisms. During this test, measurements were taken with and without controlled noise sources. Pressure and acceleration measurements were used to evaluate a coherent noise removal technique developed to mitigate the impact of noise in the ultrasonic cross-correlation flow measurement. The coherent noise removal technique was shown to be effective in removing noise during the water tunnel test. (authors)

245

Mitigation of the Impact of Terrestrial Contamination on Organic Measurements from the Mars Science Laboratory  

Science.gov (United States)

The objective of the 2009 Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), which is planned to follow the Mars Exploration Rovers and the Phoenix lander to the surface of Mars, is to explore and assess quantitatively a site on Mars as a potential habitat for present or past life. Specific goals include an assessment of the past or present biological potential of the target environment and a characterization of its geology and geochemistry. Included in the 10 investigations of the MSL rover is the Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instrument suite, which is designed to obtain trace organic measurements, measure water and other volatiles, and measure several light isotopes with experiment sequences designed for both atmospheric and solid-phase samples. SAM integrates a gas chromatograph, a mass spectrometer, and a tunable laser spectrometer supported by sample manipulation tools both within and external to the suite. The sub part-per-billion sensitivity of the suite for trace species, particularly organic molecules, along with a mobile platform that will contain many kilograms of organic materials, presents a considerable challenge due to the potential for terrestrial contamination to mask the signal of martian organics. We describe the effort presently underway to understand and mitigate, wherever possible within the resource constraints of the mission, terrestrial contamination in MSL and SAM measurements.

ten Kate, Inge L.; Canham, John S.; Conrad, Pamela G.; Errigo, Therese; Katz, Ira; Mahaffy, Paul R.

2008-06-01

246

Identifying robust large-scale flood risk mitigation strategies: A quasi-2D hydraulic model as a tool for the Po river  

Science.gov (United States)

This paper focuses on the identification of large-scale flood risk mitigation strategies for the middle-lower reach of River Po, the longest Italian river and the largest in terms of streamflow. This study develops and tests the applicability of a quasi-2D hydraulic model to aid the identification of large-scale flood risk mitigation strategies relative to a 500-year flood event other than levee heightening, which is not technically viable nor economically conceivable for the case study. Different geometrical configurations of the embankment system are considered and modelled in the study: no overtopping; overtopping and levee breaching; overtopping without levee breaching. The quasi-2D model resulted in being a very useful tool for (1) addressing the problem of flood risk mitigation from a global - perspective (i.e., entire middle-lower reach of River Po), (2) identifying critical reaches, inundation areas and corresponding overflow volumes, and (3) generating reliable boundary conditions for smaller scale studies aimed at further analyzing the hypothesized flood mitigation strategies using more complex modelling tools (e.g., fully 2D approaches). These are crucial tasks for institutions and public bodies in charge of formulating robust flood risk management strategies for large European rivers, in the light of the recent Directive 2007/60/EC on the assessment and management of flood risks ( European Parliament, 2007).

Castellarin, Attilio; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Brath, Armando

2011-01-01

247

Adherence monitoring with chronic opioid therapy for persistent pain: a biopsychosocial-spiritual approach to mitigate risk.  

Science.gov (United States)

Opioids represent a mainstay in the pharmacologic management of persistent pain. Although these drugs are intended to support improved comfort and function, the inherent risk of abuse or addiction must be considered in the delivery of care. The experience of living with persistent pain often includes depression, fear, loss, and anxiety, leading to feelings of hopelessness, helplessness, and spiritual crisis. Collectively, these factors represent an increased risk for all patients, particularly those with a history of substance abuse or addiction. This companion article to the American Society for Pain Management Nursing "Position Statement on Pain Management in Patients with Substance Use Disorders" (2012) focuses on the intersection of persistent pain, substance use disorder (SUD), and chronic opioid therapy and the clinical implications of monitoring adherence with safe use of opioids for those with persistent pain. This paper presents an approach to the comprehensive assessment of persons with persistent pain when receiving opioid therapy by presenting an expansion of the biopsychosocial model to include spiritual factors associated with pain and SUD, thus formulating a biopsychosocial-spiritual approach to mitigate risk. Key principles are provided for adherence monitoring using the biopsychosocial-spiritual assessment model developed by the authors as a means of promoting sensitive and respectful care. PMID:24602442

Matteliano, Deborah; St Marie, Barbara J; Oliver, June; Coggins, Candace

2014-03-01

248

Mitigation of Insider Risks using Distributed Agent Detection, Filtering, and Signaling  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available An insider-robust approach to file integrity verification is developed using interacting strata of mobile agents. Previous approaches relied upon monolithic architectures, or more recently, agent frameworks using a centralized control mechanism or common reporting repository. However, any such distinct tampering-point introduces vulnerabilities, especially from knowledgeable insiders capable of abusing security-critical resources. In the Collaborative Object Notification Framework for Insider Defense using Autonomous Network Transactions (CONFIDANT, the mechanisms for tampering detection, decision-making, and alert signaling are distributed and corroborated by autonomous agents. In this paper, the CONFIDANT file integrity verification framework is presented focusing on insider defense aspects. User capability classes are defined and critical physical tampering points in intrusion detection architectures are identified. CONFIDANT mitigation techniques of insider tampering exposures and example scenarios are presented.

Adam J. Rocke

2006-03-01

249

Cultivated microalgae spills: hard to predict/easier to mitigate risks.  

Science.gov (United States)

Cultivating algae on a large scale will inevitably lead to spills into natural ecosystems. Most risk analyses have dealt only with transgenic algae, without considering the risks of cultivating the corresponding non-transgenic wild type species. This is despite the long-studied 'paradox of the plankton', which describes the unsuitability of laboratory experimentation or modeling to predict the outcome of introducing non-native algae into a new ecosystem. Risk analyses of transgenic strains of native algae can be based on whether they are more fit or less fit than their wild type, but these are not possible with non-native species. Risks from spills can be minimized by mutagenically or transgenically deleting genes that are unnecessary in culture but obligatory in nature. PMID:24369876

Gressel, Jonathan; van der Vlugt, Cécile J B; Bergmans, Hans E N

2014-02-01

250

Dam break modelling, risk assessment and uncertainty analysis for flood mitigation:  

OpenAIRE

In this thesis a range of modelling techniques is explored to deal effectively with flood risk management. In particular, attention is paid to floods caused by failure of hydraulic structures such as dams and dikes. The methods considered here are applied for simulating dam and dike failure events, flood water routing in downstream areas, and flood risk reduction, providing a unified framework for addressing a variety of flood related events. Numerical, statistical and constraint based method...

Zagonjolli, M.

2007-01-01

251

Risk constraint measures developed for the outcome-based strategy for tank waste management  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This report is one of a series of supporting documents for the outcome-based characterization strategy developed by PNNL. This report presents a set of proposed risk measures with risk constraint (acceptance) levels for use in the Value of Information process used in the NCS. The characterization strategy has developed a risk-based Value of Information (VOI) approach for comparing the cost-effectiveness of characterizing versus mitigating particular waste tanks or tank clusters. The preference between characterizing or mitigating in order to prevent an accident depends on the cost of those activities relative to the cost of the consequences of the accident. The consequences are defined as adverse impacts measured across a broad set of risk categories such as worker dose, public cancers, ecological harm, and sociocultural impacts. Within each risk measure, various open-quotes constraint levelsclose quotes have been identified that reflect regulatory standards or conventionally negotiated thresholds of harm to Hanford resources and values. The cost of consequences includes the open-quotes costs close-quote of exceeding those constraint levels as well as a strictly linear costing per unit of impact within each of the risk measures. In actual application, VOI based-decision making is an iterative process, with a preliminary low-precision screen of potential technical options against the major risk constraints, followed by VOI analysis to determine the cost-effectiveness of gathering additional information and to select a preferred technical option, and finally a posterior screen to determine whether the preferred option meets all relevant risk constraints and acceptability criteria

252

L-Band Digital Aeronautical Communications System Engineering - Initial Safety and Security Risk Assessment and Mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract NNC05CA85C, Task 7: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed L-band (960 to 1164 MHz) terrestrial en route communications system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents a preliminary safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the L-band communication system after the technology is chosen and system rollout timing is determined. The security risk analysis resulted in identifying main security threats to the proposed system as well as noting additional threats recommended for a future security analysis conducted at a later stage in the system development process. The document discusses various security controls, including those suggested in the COCR Version 2.0.

Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

2011-01-01

253

Joint System Prognostics For Increased Efficiency And Risk Mitigation In Advanced Nuclear Reactor Instrumentation and Control  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The science of prognostics is analogous to a doctor who, based on a set of symptoms and patient tests, assesses a probable cause, the risk to the patient, and a course of action for recovery. While traditional prognostics research has focused on the aspect of hydraulic and mechanical systems and associated failures, this project will take a joint view in focusing not only on the digital I&C aspect of reliability and risk, but also on the risks associated with the human element. Model development will not only include an approximation of the control system physical degradation but also on human performance degradation. Thus the goal of the prognostic system is to evaluate control room operation; to identify and potentially take action when performance degradation reduces plant efficiency, reliability or safety.

Donald D. Dudenhoeffer; Tuan Q. Tran; Ronald L. Boring; Bruce P. Hallbert

2006-08-01

254

Risk measures in living probabilistic safety assessment  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The main objectives of the study are: to define risk measures and suggested uses of them in various living PSA applications for the operational safety management and to describe specific model features required for living PSA applications. The report is based on three case studies performed within the Nordic research project Safety Evaluation by Use of Living PSA and Safety Indicators. (48 refs., 11 figs., 17 tabs.)

255

Environmental benefits and risks of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI): risk mitigation or trade-off?  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

The use of nanoscaled particles in environmental remediation is gaining increasing amounts of attention in recent years, including the use of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI) for soil and groundwater remediation. The main advantages of its use include high degrees of reactivity towards a wide range of contaminants, enhanced mobility of the often coated particles, and its cost-effective in situ applications. Numerous studies have shown that compared to larger sized iron particles nZVI may have some superior properties, due to high surface areas and small sizes associated with nanoscale dimensions. While the use and further development of nZVI is understandably heralded as an environmentally-beneficial technology, the potentials risks of introducing these nanoparticles into the environment also needs to be considered. To date most research has focused on the potential benefits of nZVI and very little research has investigated its potential health and environmental risks. Nonetheless, some recent studies have documented adverse effects from its exposure including the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS), oxidative stress, bactericidal effects, DNA damage, and inflammatory responses. Moreover, field site injections often involve the use of large quantities of nZVI (10-50 g/L) which may be directly injected into groundwater flow. Combined with the pursuit of designing more mobile and reactive particles, this may potentially lead to risks related to environmental exposures of substantial concentrations. In this study, we provide a brief synopsis of the expected environmental benefits and potential risks of nZVI, particularly focusing on its environmental fate and behavior and potential role as contaminant carrier. These are some areas of primary concern for risk assessors. Furthermore, we estimate and compare the span between probable environmental concentrations from its use in the field and concentrations which have been shown to cause adverse effects in laboratory settings. This is in light of the challenges that quantitative risk assessments face for nZVI and other nanoparticles, in part due to extensive and fundamental uncertainties. These data may provide a starting point to more thoroughly investigate the potential risks of nZVI and ultimately help scientists, engineers, and decision makers make better informed decisions regarding the use of nZVI for environmental remediation.

Grieger, Khara Deanne; FjordbØge, Annika Sidelmann

2009-01-01

256

A Human Factor Analysis to Mitigate Fall Risk Factors in an Aerospace Environment  

Science.gov (United States)

This slide presentation reviews the study done to quanitfy the risks from falls from three locations (i.e., Shuttle Landing Facility Launch Complex Payloads and Vehicle Assembly Building) at the Kennedy Space Center. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is reviewed and the mathematical model developed is detailed.

Ware, Joylene H.

2010-01-01

257

Stress Testing Engineering: the real risk measurement?  

OpenAIRE

Stress testing is used to determine the stability or the resilience of a given financial institution by deliberately submitting. In this paper, we focus on what may lead a bank to fail and how its resilience can be measured. Two families of triggers are analysed: the first stands in the stands in the impact of external (and / or extreme) events, the second one stands on the impacts of the choice of inadequate models for predictions or risks measurement; more precisely on models becoming inade...

Guegan, Dominique; Hassani, Bertrand

2014-01-01

258

Policies and Measures to Realise Industrial Energy Efficiency and Mitigate Climate Change  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The industrial sector is responsible for a significant share of global energy use and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Energy efficiency is commonly seen as the most cost-effective, least-polluting, and most readily-accessible industrial energy saving option available in the industrial sector worldwide. Capturing the full extent of these potential end-use energy efficiency improvements rapidly is essential if the world is to be on a path to stabilise greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations to a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. In the International Energy Agency (IEA) 450 parts per million stabilisation scenario, over a quarter of all energy efficiency gains need to come from the industrial sector by 2050, largely by changing the pattern of industrial energy use. The reduction potential estimated by IEA and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for five energy-intensive industrial sub-sectors ranges from about 10 to 40 per cent, depending upon the sector. There is significant potential to reduce, at low or no cost, the amount of energy used to manufacture most commodities. Many policies and programmes - at a national level - have already demonstrated significant improvements in industrial energy efficiency. The associate reduction in energy needs often also improves economic competitiveness as well as mitigates GHG emissions. However, at an international level, approaches such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) are not yet delivering the expected energy efficiency improvements. Existing and effective industrial energy efficiency policies and measures could be replicated at a global level. Key elements of those policies and measures include increasing facility management attention to the issue of energy efficiency; promoting the dissemination of information, practice, and tools; increasing the auditing and implementation capacity; and developing the market for industrial energy efficiency investment. Better energy efficiency can produce substantial benefits both for global economic growth and poverty reduction as well as for mitigating climate change. The paper details examples of effective industrial energy efficiency policies and programmes. It provides a list of recommended actions to accelerate the adoption of industrial energy efficiency technologies and practices. Many policies and programmes have elements which seem likely to be readily deployable, replicable and transferable. A successful post-Kyoto architecture, regardless of its specifics, should therefore enable these elements see the light of reality

259

Downgrading Complexity in the Exxon Valdez Crisis: Using Information as a Risk Mitigation Tool in Complex Adaptive Systems  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available

 

In a high-stakes crisis environment, trial and error can be too costly an approach. The Exxon Valdez oil spill provides an example of how complex adaptive systems can have simple, preventable problems and complex, unpredictable problems can come together with disastrous consequences. Not every possible contingency can be accounted for. However, research and experience can be applied to mitigate these types of risks by using information to reduce or "downgrade" the complexity of the contributing situations. The Cynefin contexts of complexity can be used to assess problems when they arise. Downgrading the level of complexity for a given problem can turn formerly complex or complicated situations into simple ones that require less knowledge and resources to resolve and can reduce the risk of failure. The possibility and consequences of failure may remain, but downgraded complexity can reduce the likelihood of this failure and make problems more manageable when they do occur.

Eric Snow

2010-11-01

260

The Pepcon Disaster-Causative Factors and potential Preventive and Mitigative Measures  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

On May 4, 1988, the PEPCON plant experienced three major and several smaller explosions that caused over $70 million in property damage and caused two deaths. The PEPCON plant produced Ammonium Perchlorate (AP), a major ingredient for rocket fuel. The PEPCON plant and the nearby Kidd Marshmallow plant were totally destroyed by the detonations. The initiating event for the explosions was a fire that originated in the Batch Dryer Building and spread to adjacent storage. Several factors combined to cause the AP in the major storage fields to detonate, the most important being lack of adequate separation between storage units. Welding and flame cutting procedure with poor fire watch protocol was the prime candidate for fire ignition. There were no automatic fire suppression systems at the plant. Buildings including the Batch Dryer Building were made of combustible building material (fiberglass). There was poor housekeeping and no control of AP dust generation. AP was stored in combustible polyethylene drums, aluminum tote bins, 30-gallon steel storage drums and fiber reinforced tote bags. There were high-density storage practices. In addition, a contributing factor to the rapid fire-spread was that the wind that day was blowing directly from the batch dryer building to the storage areas. This paper claims that if codes, standards, and well-known hazard identification safety techniques were implemented at PEPCON, then the disaster would have been averted. A limited scope probabilistic risk assessment was conducted to establish the effectiveness of various preventive and mitigative features that could have been deployed to avert the disaster. The major hazard at the PEPCON site was fire and explosion involving the processing, production and storage of AP, which was then and is currently stored as a class 4 oxidizer. Since minute quantities of contamination can cause AP to be detonable by shock, there has been an ongoing debate concerning its reclassification to a class-A explosive.

Lambert, H E; Alvares, N J

2003-07-25

261

Cash Sub-additive Risk Measures and Interest Rate Ambiguity  

CERN Document Server

A new class of risk measures called cash sub-additive risk measures is introduced to assess the risk of future financial, nonfinancial and insurance positions. The debated cash additive axiom is relaxed into the cash sub additive axiom to preserve the original difference between the numeraire of the current reserve amounts and future positions. Consequently, cash sub-additive risk measures can model stochastic and/or ambiguous interest rates or defaultable contingent claims. Practical examples are presented and in such contexts cash additive risk measures cannot be used. Several representations of the cash sub-additive risk measures are provided. The new risk measures are characterized by penalty functions defined on a set of sub-linear probability measures and can be represented using penalty functions associated with cash additive risk measures defined on some extended spaces. The issue of the optimal risk transfer is studied in the new framework using inf-convolution techniques. Examples of dynamic cash su...

Karoui, Nicole El

2007-01-01

262

Residents in a high radon potential geographic area: Their risk perception and attitude toward testing and mitigation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boone County, Indiana was identified by the EPA as one of the high radon potential geographic areas. Health education campaigns are needed to prevent resident's unnecessary radon exposure. In order to design suitable programs, a questionnaire mail survey was conducted to measure socio-demographic characteristics of County resident's knowledge about radon, attitude toward radon testing and mitigation, support of education campaigns, and the best media to deliver radon education campaigns. A stratified random sampling method was applied for a total of 400 samples. The number of samples from each township/city was a proportion of their taxable parcels. The survey return rate was 39.8%. The data were analyzed by Epi Info and SPSS. The statistical significant level was set at ? = 0.05. The results showed that resident's knowledge about radon was at a relatively superficial level. There was no association identified between the knowledge of radon and gender, age, family income, or education, except that females more frequently believed in false effects caused by radon. A significant correlation between radon knowledge and home radon tests was observed. Also found in this study was that respondents with better knowledge about diseases caused by radon had more confidence in radon mitigation actions. Newspaper was chosen by respondents as the most favorite media to deliver radon health education campaigns. Health education campaigns for the residents of Boone County might be r the residents of Boone County might be conducted by local governments and/or other organizations

263

Literature review and risk mitigation strategy for unintended consequences of computerized physician order entry.  

Science.gov (United States)

Computerized physician order entry (CPOE) is a form of patient management health technology software used for providers to enter medical orders into a computer system. CPOE is a health care solution used to improve patient safety and quality of care, decrease costs, and reduce the risk of medical errors. However, there are unintended consequences to electronic health records that can actually cause an increase in medical errors. Two areas of concern that risk management practitioners need to monitor and analyze are the effects of CPOE on nurse-physician communication and operational workflows. A strategic proactive plan will reduce the likelihood of adverse events, specifically medication errors. Providers and nurses will require focused education on effective communication strategies and leadership will need to promote a culture of safety. PMID:23505740

Cowan, Lisa

2013-01-01

264

Mitigating Information security risks during the Transition to Integrated Operations: Models & Data  

OpenAIRE

This research studies the change of information security risks during the transition to Integrated Operations (an operation extensively utilize advanced information communication technology to connect offshore facilities and onshore control centers and even vendors.) in Norsk Hydro, a Norwegian oil and gas company. The specific case for this study is a pilot platform in transition to Integrated Operations, Brage: twenty traditional work processes are to be replaced by new work ...

Qian, Ying

2010-01-01

265

Development of a Meteorological Risk Map for Disaster Mitigation and Management in the Chishan Basin, Taiwan  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This study involved developing a natural disaster risk assessment framework based on the consideration of three phases: a pre-disaster phase, disaster impact phase, and post-disaster recovery phase. The exposure of natural disasters exhibits unique characteristics. The interactions of numerous factors should be considered in risk assessment as well as in monitoring environment to provide natural disaster warnings. In each phase, specific factors indicate the relative status in the area subjected to risk assessment. Three types of natural disaster were assessed, namely debris flows, floods, and droughts. The Chishan basin in Taiwan was used as a case study and the adequacy of the relocation of Xiaolin village was evaluated. Incorporating resilience into the assessment revealed that the higher the exposure is, the higher the resilience becomes. This is because highly populated areas are typically allocated enough resources to respond to disasters. In addition, highly populated areas typically exhibit high resilience. The application of this analysis in the policy of relocation of damaged village after disaster provides valuable information for decision makers to achieve the sustainability of land use planning.

Tai-Li Lee

2015-01-01

266

Approach for Mitigating Pressure Garment Design Risks in a Mobile Lunar Surface Systems Architecture  

Science.gov (United States)

The stated goals of the 2004 Vision for Space Exploration focus on establishing a human presence throughout the solar system beginning with the establishment of a permanent human presence on the Moon. However, the precise objectives to be accomplished on the lunar surface and the optimal system architecture to achieve those objectives have been a topic of much debate since the inception of the Constellation Program. There are two basic styles of system architectures being traded at the Programmatic level: a traditional large outpost that would focus on techniques for survival off our home planet and a greater depth of exploration within one area, or a mobile approach- akin to a series of nomadic camps- that would allow greater breadth of exploration opportunities. The traditional outpost philosophy is well within the understood pressure garment design space with respect to developing interfaces and operational life cycle models. The mobile outpost, however, combines many unknowns with respect to pressure garment performance and reliability that could dramatically affect the cost and schedule risks associated with the Constellation space suit system. This paper provides an overview of the concepts being traded for a mobile architecture from the operations and hardware implementation perspective, describes the primary risks to the Constellation pressure garment associated with each of the concepts, and summarizes the approach necessary to quantify the pressure garment design risks to enable the Constellation Program to make informed decisions when deciding on an overall lunar surface systems architecture.

Aitchison, Lindsay

2009-01-01

267

The respiratory health hazards of volcanic ash: a review for volcanic risk mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

Studies of the respiratory health effects of different types of volcanic ash have been undertaken only in the last 40 years, and mostly since the eruption of Mt. St. Helens in 1980. This review of all published clinical, epidemiological and toxicological studies, and other work known to the authors up to and including 2005, highlights the sparseness of studies on acute health effects after eruptions and the complexity of evaluating the long-term health risk (silicosis, non-specific pneumoconiosis and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) in populations from prolonged exposure to ash due to persistent eruptive activity. The acute and chronic health effects of volcanic ash depend upon particle size (particularly the proportion of respirable-sized material), mineralogical composition (including the crystalline silica content) and the physico-chemical properties of the surfaces of the ash particles, all of which vary between volcanoes and even eruptions of the same volcano, but adequate information on these key characteristics is not reported for most eruptions. The incidence of acute respiratory symptoms (e.g. asthma, bronchitis) varies greatly after ashfalls, from very few, if any, reported cases to population outbreaks of asthma. The studies are inadequate for excluding increases in acute respiratory mortality after eruptions. Individuals with pre-existing lung disease, including asthma, can be at increased risk of their symptoms being exacerbated after falls of fine ash. A comprehensive risk assessment, including toxicological studies, to determine the long-term risk of silicosis from chronic exposure to volcanic ash, has been undertaken only in the eruptions of Mt. St. Helens (1980), USA, and Soufrière Hills, Montserrat (1995 onwards). In the Soufrière Hills eruption, a long-term silicosis hazard has been identified and sufficient exposure and toxicological information obtained to make a probabilistic risk assessment for the development of silicosis in outdoor workers and the general population. A more systematic approach to multi-disciplinary studies in future eruptions is recommended, including establishing an archive of ash samples and a website containing health advice for the public, together with scientific and medical study guidelines for volcanologists and health-care workers.

Horwell, Claire J.; Baxter, Peter J.

2006-07-01

268

Using inferred drivers of discarding behaviour to evaluate discard mitigation measures  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Discards refer to the part of the catch not retained on board during commercial fishing operations, but returned to the sea. The proposed European Union Common Fisheries Policy reform, to be implemented in 2014, sets out a gradual elimination of discards by reducing unwanted catches and ensuring that all catches are landed. To develop successful discard mitigation measures, it is necessary to identify the reasons for discarding. Here, we have developed a simple model that can be applied to data from observer programmes (ObsPs) to establish the contribution of different drivers of discarding behaviour. The analysis makes inferences on the causes of discarding by partitioning discards into four categories based on the length of the fish and the associated regulatory restrictions. The drivers are defined as: fish discarded below the legalminimum landing size; fish forwhich there is no market and that do not have aminimum landing size; fish for which there are inconsistencies in market and sorting practices; and discards that can be attributed to fishers’ responses to quota restrictions. The approach is applied to data generated from ObsPs from five EuropeanMember States. All the inferred drivers contribute to the total discard quantity. Their relative contributions vary widely across countries, areas, gears, and species

Catchpole, T.L.; Feekings, Jordan P.

2014-01-01

269

The instability of downside risk measures  

CERN Document Server

We study the feasibility and noise sensitivity of portfolio optimization under some downside risk measures (Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and semivariance) when they are estimated by fitting a parametric distribution on a finite sample of asset returns. We find that the existence of the optimum is a probabilistic issue, depending on the particular random sample, in all three cases. At a critical combination of the parameters of these problems we find an algorithmic phase transition, separating the phase where the optimization is feasible from the one where it is not. This transition is similar to the one discovered earlier for Expected Shortfall based on historical time series. We employ the replica method to compute the phase diagram, as well as to obtain the critical exponent of the estimation error that diverges at the critical point. The analytical results are corroborated by Monte Carlo simulations.

Varga-Haszonits, Istvan

2008-01-01

270

The reordering urban community participation. A strategy for the prevention and mitigation of risk by geological phenomena: Case of implementation in Medellin, Colombia  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In this article, it is showed the fulfilled methodology by the municipality of Medellin-Colombia and its results, at the Picacho sector, for the risk prevention and mitigation of rock fall It is formulated and developed a project for urban rearrangement, in which the community participation is the transverse component at the planning- management, risk prevention- mitigation, legalization of land's possession, housing improvement- relocation, and urban infrastructure. The most important results were a) the improvement of quality's life for residents, benefiting directly about 2,500 people and indirectly about 24,000, with one investment near 3.6 dollar millions; b) construction of social web and membership sense; c) better governance and better state-community relation; and d) risk reduction of rock fall As the main conclusion it is expounded that the community participation at all stages of the project and the concept that the risk is non resolved problem of the development are two determining elements so that urban rearrangement may be, in many cases, the better option for the risk prevention and mitigation of geological phenomena in urban areas of unmannerly development, rather than one massive relocation of the population

271

Modelling of agricultural diffuse pollution and mitigation measures effectiveness in Wallonia (Belgium)  

Science.gov (United States)

Implementation of European directives in the environmental field and, specially, in the water management field, generates a request from policy-makers for news tools able to evaluate impact of management measures aiming at reducing pressures on ecosystems. In Wallonia (Southern Region of Belgium), the Nitrate Directive (EEC/676/91) was transposed into the "Walloon action plan for nitrogen sustainable management in agriculture" (PGDA1) in 2002. In 2007, a second plan was launched to reinforce some topics (PGDA2). Furthermore, the goal of "good quality" of surface waters and groundwater imposed by the Water Framework Directive poses new challenges in water management. In this context, a "soil and vadose" hydrological model is used in order to evaluate diffuse pollutions and efficiency of mitigation measures. This model, called EPICgrid, has been developed at catchment scale with an original modular concept on the basis of the field scale "water-soil-plant" EPIC model (Williams J.R., Jones C.A., Dyke P.T. (1984). A modelling approach to determining the relationship between erosion and soil productivity. Transactions of the ASAE. 27, 129-144). The model estimates, for each HRU identified into a 1km2 grid, water and nutrients flows into the plant-soil-vadose zone system (Sohier C., Degré A., Dautrebande S. (2009). From root zone modelling to regional forecasting of nitrate concentration in recharge flows - The case of the Walloon Region (Belgium). Journal of Hydrology, Volume 369, Issues 3-4, 15 May 2009, Pages 350-359). The model is used to make prospective simulations in order to evaluate the impact of measures currently performed to reduce the effect of diffuse pollution on water surface quality and groundwater quality, at regional scale. Response of the soil-vadose zone to agricultural practices modification is analyzed for the deadlines of the Water Framework Directive: 2015, 2021 and 2027, taking into account two climatic scenarios. Simulations results showed that actual measures are not sufficient in some areas and that new actions are necessary. The EPICgrid model was also used to evaluate effectiveness of further measures that could be implemented in order to reduce agricultural diffuse pollution. The increasing of catch crops in vulnerable zones has shown a limited impact in the Walloon context. The modifications of agricultural practices such as crop rotations or mineral fertilizing amounts have shown a more significant impact on water quality. Furthermore, the farmers' practices are evaluated each year by a measuring campaign of the soil nitrogen residue after harvest. These data allow us to improve the representativeness of the EPICgrid model in areas in which agricultural practices largely differs from regional statistics.

Sohier, C.; Deraedt, D.; Degré, A.

2012-04-01

272

Modelling the impacts of climate change on muddy flooding and the effectiveness of mitigation measures in Flanders, Belgium  

Science.gov (United States)

The 'off-site' impacts of soil erosion have become a major source of concern in Europe and elsewhere during recent decades. This is due, in part, to the environmental damage and economic costs associated with 'muddy flooding.' Muddy floods occur when large volumes of runoff are generated on agricultural land, triggering the detachment and transport of sediment. This may then be deposited in neighbouring settlements. The Belgian loess belt is particularly vulnerable to muddy floods since loess-derived soils are susceptible to crusting, which decreases their infiltration rates and promotes high levels of runoff and erosion. Severe economic damages in many Flemish municipalities led to government provision of funding for voluntary mitigation measures from 2001. In the Melsterbeek catchment, where several villages have been particularly affected by severe muddy floods, mitigation measures have been implemented and their effectiveness subsequently monitored. Runoff, erosion and the occurrence of muddy floods have all considerably decreased. The scheme was cost-effective within three years. The success of these mitigation measures may diminish over the coming decades, however, as climate change poses new threats ranging from direct changes in rainfall intensity to the indirect effects of climate-driven shifts in land use. Such changes could potentially generate increased runoff over agricultural land and lead to a resurgence of muddy flooding in vulnerable areas, with severe repercussions for the effectiveness of mitigation measures. In this study, we model the impacts of climate change on muddy flooding for a hillslope in the Melsterbeek catchment where mitigation measures have been implemented, enabling us to quantify the threat which climate change poses to their effectiveness. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) was employed. Model data for present-day conditions were perturbed with future climate change parameters derived from statistical downscaling methods, and for land use change projections developed using a scenarios-based framework. Results reveal that existing mitigation measures may become compromised under a selection of future scenarios of climate and land use. Future efforts at conservation may need to become more flexible to remain effective in the changing environment of the coming decades.

Mullan, Donal; Vandaele, Karel; Boardman, John; Favis-Mortlock, Dave

2014-05-01

273

Performance evaluating of the AP1000 passive safety systems for mitigation of small break loss of coolant accident using risk assessment tool-II software  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The SBLOCA CDF has been estimated to be 1.934E-8/year, using RAT II. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The simplicity and passive safety systems result in decrease in the probability of CCF. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer However, the importance analysis ranks the CCF as the greatest contributor in CDF. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Automatic and manual actuation failure probabilities have been founded to have low contribution in the SBLOCA CDF. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The analysis assesses the performance of passive safety systems and reveals the deficiencies. - Abstract: The successful performance of defense barriers in the operating nuclear power plants is vital to avoid any release of highly radioactive fission products. Passive safety systems, independent of the electrical power, are implemented in modern NPPs to improve their reliability on demand. In this study, the SB-LOCA CDF is evaluated for the AP1000 to assess the performance of passive safety systems. The core damage states are examined to identify the most considerable risk contributors. Besides, importance measures rank the failures. Risk assessment tool-II has been designed and developed, in the safety research center of Shiraz University, to develop the PSA level 1 models. Using redundant passive and diverse reliable safety systems result in the low CDF of SB-LOCA (i.e. 1.934E-08). Considering the dominant sequences indicates that relying on passive automatic actuation mitigating processes, independent of operator actuations and electrical motive power leads to the considerable decrease in the probability of common cause failures and the CDF. However, importance analysis reveals the high contribution of CCF{sub B}Es in the SB-LOCA CDF. The results identify the weak points of operation and the most important risk contributors, in order to improve the inadequacies in design, test and maintenance and required human actions.

Kamyab, Shahabeddin [School of Engineering, Shiraz University, 71348-51154 Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Nematollahi, Mohammadreza, E-mail: nema@shirazu.ac.ir [School of Engineering, Shiraz University, 71348-51154 Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Safety Research Center of Shiraz University, 71348-51154 Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2012-12-15

274

HOW TO MITIGATE THE RISKS OF MANAGING ONLINE ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS BY TRAINING WITH SIMBOUND SIMULATION GAME  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This paper aims to describe how a digital marketing simulation system improve the knowledge and skills of students, as well as their status as members of a virtual community, which gradually evolve from novice to expert in managing online advertising campaigns. The body of the article encompasses three contributions: the know-how of the Simbound Game author, the practical experiences of an instructor, who coordinated students’ activities during three courses and of a Master student – the leader of a team which got the first position after the completion of a game. The advantages of managing no-risk online advertising campaigns are revealed and the students are able to understand how various online marketing tools become useful while a firm expands its operations in e-commerce and must fulfill new tasks and responsibilities. The paper concludes with the practical implications of the Simbound simulation-based learning and the ideas included in the future research agenda.

Louis Doru Havriliuc

2013-12-01

275

Surface, sub-surface mapping, geohazard identification and associated risk mitigation for pipelines  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

In the oil and gas sector, there is a constant need to build new lines as well as to upgrade existing ones in order to keep up with the growing demand. In the design, construction and maintenance phases of a pipeline project, capture and analysis of remote sensing data can be very useful for achieving improved efficiencies and cost savings. The purpose of this paper is to present how various tools can provide significant logistical information. Different remote sensing collection techniques such as LiDAR, topographical mapping, subsurface electromagnetic and magnetic sensing datasets are available to professionals. These practical tools can be used for evaluation of geohazards, landslide and fault avoidance, and determining alternate routing options and construction feasibility. This study provides an overview of which techniques are appropriate for each geohazard and highlights that risk planning can be considerably reduced with efficient determination of ground conditions through the use of these techniques.

Mitchell, Todd [Fugro SESL Geomatics Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada); Hitchcock, Chris [Fugro William Lettis and Associates, Walnut Creek, California (United States); Amine, Dima [Fugro Airborne Surveys, Mississauga, Ontario (Canada)

2010-07-01

276

Mitigating the risk of opioid abuse through a balanced undergraduate pain medicine curriculum  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Patricia K Morley-Forster,1,2 Joseph V Pergolizzi,3–5 Robert Taylor Jr,5 Robert A Axford-Gatley,6 Edward M Sellers71Department of Anesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada; 2Outpatient Pain Clinic, St Joseph’s Hospital, London, ON, Canada; 3Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA; 4Department of Pharmacology, Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA, USA; 5NEMA Research Inc, Naples, FL, USA; 6Clinical Content and Editorial Services, Complete Healthcare Communications, Inc, Chadds Ford, PA, USA; 7DL Global Partners Inc, Toronto, ON, CanadaAbstract: Chronic pain is highly prevalent in the United States and Canada, occurring in an estimated 30% of the adult population. Despite its high prevalence, US and Canadian medical schools provide very little training in pain management, including training in the safe and effective use of potent analgesics, most notably opioids. In 2005, the International Association for the Study of Pain published recommendations for a core undergraduate pain management curriculum, and several universities have implemented pilot programs based on this curriculum. However, when outcomes have been formally assessed, these initiatives have resulted in only modest improvements in physician knowledge about chronic pain and its treatment. This article discusses strategies to improve undergraduate pain management curricula and proposes areas in which those efforts can be augmented. Emphasis is placed on opioids, which have great potency as analgesics but also substantial risks in terms of adverse events and the risk of abuse and addiction. The authors conclude that the most important element of an undergraduate pain curriculum is clinical experience under mentors who are capable of reinforcing didactic learning by modeling best practices.Keywords: chronic pain, curricular content, medical education, opioids, pain education, pain knowledge, physician training, teaching

Morley-Forster PK

2013-12-01

277

Improving cost-effectiveness and mitigating risks of renewable energy requirements  

Science.gov (United States)

Policy makers at the federal and state levels of government are debating actions to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on oil as an energy source. Several concerns drive this debate: sharp rises in energy prices, increasing unease about the risks of climate change, energy security, and interest in expanding the domestic renewable energy industry. Renewable energy requirements are frequently proposed to address these concerns, and are currently in place, in various forms, at the federal and state levels of government. These policies specify that a certain portion of the energy supply come from renewable energy sources. This dissertation focuses on a specific proposal, known as 25 X 25, which requires 25% of electricity and motor vehicle transportation fuels supplied to U.S. consumers to come from renewable energy sources, such as wind power and ethanol, by 2025. This dissertation builds on prior energy policy analysis, and more specifically analyses of renewable energy requirements, by assessing the social welfare implications of a 25 x 25 policy and applying new methods of uncertainty analysis to multiple policy options decision makers can use to implement the policy. These methods identify policy options that can improve the cost-effectiveness and reduce the risks of renewable energy requirements. While the dissertation focuses on a specific policy, the research methods and findings are applicable to other renewable energy requirement policies. In the dissertation, I analyze six strategies for implementing a 25 x 25 policy across several hundred scenarios that represent plausible futures for uncertainties in energy markets, such as renewable energy costs, energy demand, and fossil fuel prices. The strategies vary in the availability of resources that qualify towards the policy requirement and the use of a "safety valve" that allows refiners and utilities to pay a constant fee after renewable energy costs reach a predetermined threshold. I test each strategy across the set of scenarios and conclude that an "all-combined" strategy---one that allows greater corn ethanol production and energy efficiency to qualify towards the requirement and includes a safety valve---is the most robust strategy to address future uncertainties in energy markets.

Griffin, James P.

278

Mitigation Measures Following a Loss-of-Residual-Heat-Removal Event During Shutdown  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The transient following a loss-of-residual-heat-removal event during shutdown was analyzed to determine the containment closure time (CCT) to prevent uncontrolled release of fission products and the gravity-injection path and rate (GIPR) for effective core cooling using the RELAP5/MOD3.2 code. The plant conditions of Yonggwang Units 3 and 4, a pressurized water reactor (PWR) of 2815-MW(thermal) power in Korea, were reviewed, and possible event sequences were identified. From the CCT analysis for the five cases of typical plant configurations, it was estimated for the earliest CCT to be 40 min after the event in a case with a large cold-leg opening and emptied steam generators (SGs). However, the case with water-filled SGs significantly delayed the CCT through the heat removal to the secondary side. From the GIPR analysis for the six possible gravity-injection paths from the refueling water storage tank (RWST), the case with the injection point and opening on the other leg side was estimated to be the most suitable path to avoid core boiling. In addition, from the sensitivity study, it was evaluated for the plant to be capable of providing the core cooling for the long-term transient if nominal RWST water is available. As a result, these analysis methods and results will provide useful information in understanding the plant behavior and preparing the mitigation measures after the event, especially for Combustion Engineering-type PWR plants. However, to directly apply te PWR plants. However, to directly apply the analysis results to the emergency procedure for such an event, additional case studies are needed for a wide range of operating conditions such as reactor coolant inventory, RWST water temperature, and core decay heat rate

279

NCCN Oncology Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies White Paper: Recommendations for Stakeholders.  

Science.gov (United States)

REMS are a particularly important issue for oncology and the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN). A disproportionate number of drugs with complex REMS are used in patients with cancer or hematologic disorders. REMS policies and processes within oncology may act as a model for other clinical areas. A breadth of experience and access to a wide knowledge base exists within oncology that will ensure appropriate development and consideration of the practical implications of REMS. NCCN is uniquely positioned to assume a leadership role in this process given its status as the arbiter of high-quality cancer care based on its world-leading institutions and clinicians. Notwithstanding the potential benefits, the successful design, implementation, and analysis of the FDA's recent requirement for REMS for some high-risk drugs and biologics will present significant challenges for stakeholders, including patients, providers, cancer centers, manufacturers, payors, health information technology vendors, and regulatory agencies. To provide guidance to these stakeholders regarding REMS challenges, the NCCN assembled a work group comprised of thought leaders from NCCN Member Institutions and other outside experts. The Work Group identified challenges across the REMS spectrum, including the areas of standardization, development and assessment of REMS programs, medication guides, provider knowledge and impact on prescribing, provider burden and compensation, and incorporation of REMS into clinical practice. PMID:20947724

Johnson, Philip E; Dahlman, George; Eng, Kirby; Garg, Rekha; Gottlieb, Scott; Hoffman, James M; Howell, Peyton; Jahanzeb, Mohammad; Johnson, Shirley; Mackler, Emily; Rubino, Mark; Sarokhan, Brenda; Marc Stewart, F; Tyler, Tim; Vose, Julie M; Weinstein, Sharon; Li, Edward C; Demartino, Jessica

2010-09-01

280

Proactive inventory policy intervention to mitigate risk within cooperative supply chains  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This exploratory paper will investigate the concept of supply chain risk management involving supplier monitoring within a cooperative supply chain. Inventory levels and stockouts are the key metrics. Key to this concept is the assumptions that (1 out-of-control supplier situations are causal triggers for downstream supply chain disruptions, (2 these triggers can potentially be predicted using statistical process monitoring tools, and (3 carrying excess inventory only when needed is preferable as opposed to carrying excess inventory on a continual basis. Simulation experimentation will be used to explore several supplier monitoring strategies based on statistical runs tests, specifically "runs up and down" and/or "runs above and below" tests. The sensitivity of these tests in detecting non-random supplier behavior will be explored and their performance will be investigated relative to stock-outs and inventory levels. Finally, the effects of production capacity and yield rate will be examined. Results indicate out-of-control supplier signals can be detected beforehand and stock-outs can be significantly reduced by dynamically adjusting inventory levels. The largest benefit occurs when both runs tests are used together and when the supplier has sufficient production capacity to respond to downstream demand (i.e., safety stock increases. When supplier capacity is limited, the highest benefit is achieved when yield rates are high and, thus, yield loss does not increase supplier production requirements beyond its available capacity.

Takako Kurano

2014-04-01

281

The nitrogen fate beyond the current nutrient mitigation measures: sustainability of an integrated agriculture  

Science.gov (United States)

Located in the North-Western Europe the terrestrial continuum that includes the Seine, Somme, and Scheldt River basins offers an interesting example of a transborder territory (France, Belgium, and Netherlands) with high-intensity anthropogenic pressures. It well-illustrates the rapid development of modern agriculture in industrialised countries and the resulting severe alteration of water resources and jeopardising the capacity of rural territories to produce drinking water. The corresponding nutrient loads delivered then into the Southern Bight of the North Sea, strongly affect the ecological functioning of the coastal zone. An integrated ‘river-ocean’ assessment, coupling two deterministic models - the SENEQUE RIVESTRAHLER model simulating nutrient dynamic in the drainage network and the MIRO model describing the ecological functioning coastal ecosystem - points out the relevance of current policy based measures (improvement of waste water treatment) to mitigate phosphorous emissions, while the nitrogen pollution related to agriculture will remain critical despite the implementation of classical management measure (good agricultural practices). Therefore and irrespectively of the current political agenda, a more radical alternative is established, consisting of a generalised shift to an integrated agriculture of all agricultural areas in the three basins, excluding the use of synthetically compounded fertilisers and the importation of livestock feed. Such scenario aims at evaluating whether agriculture, by essence, can conciliate (i) the demand for food and feed by local populations, (ii) a good ecological functioning of aquatic ecosystems and (iii) a balanced nutrient status for the adjacent coastal area. This scenario involves an increased livestock density in the Seine and Somme and a decrease in livestock in the Scheldt basin. It leads to a significant reduction of agricultural production that finally brings the three basins closer to autotrophy/heterotrophy equilibrium, while a persisting requirement of long-distance importation of meat and milk clearly emphasises the unsustainability of the increasing share of animal proteins in the modern human diet. In the more optimistic hypothesis, nitrate concentrations in most of the drainage network would drop below the threshold of 2.25 mgN/l (10 mgNO3/L) which is often considered a threshold for a good ecological status. The excess of nitrogen over silica (with respect to the requirements of marine diatoms) delivered into the coastal zones would be decreased by a factor from 2 to 5, thus strongly reducing, but not entirely eliminating the potential for marine eutrophication. Despite a lack a short-term realism, this alternative could appears - in the line of the ‘adapting mosaic’ defined by the Millenium Ecosystem Assessement - as an end-point situation to be compared when building future nutrient reduction policies and incentive agricultural measures.

Thieu, V.; Billen, G. F.; Garnier, J.; Lancelot, C.; Gypens, N.

2010-12-01

282

Landslide-dammed lake at Tangjiashan, Sichuan province, China (triggered by the Wenchuan Earthquake, May 12, 2008): Risk assessment, mitigation strategy, and lessons learned  

Science.gov (United States)

Landslides and rock avalanches triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake produced 257 landslide dams, mainly situated along the eastern boundary of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau where rivers descend approximately 3,000 m into the Sichuan Basin. The largest of these dams blocked the Tongkou River (a tributary of the Fujiang River) at Tangjiashan. The blockage, consisting of 2. 04 ?? 10 7 m 3 of landslide debris, impounded a lake with a projected maximum volume of 3. 15 ?? 10 8 m 3, potentially inundating 8. 92 km 2 of terrain. Its creation during the rainy season and the possibility of an uncontrolled release posed a serious, impending threat to at least 1. 3 million people downstream that could add substantially to the total of 69,200 individuals directly killed by the earthquake. Risk assessment of the blockage indicated that it was unlikely to collapse suddenly, and that eventual overtopping could be mitigated by notching the structure in order to create an engineered breach and achieve safe drainage of the lake. In addition to the installation of monitoring and warning instrumentation, for emergency planning we estimated several outburst scenarios equivalent to 20, 25, 33, and 50% of the dam failing suddenly, creating, respectively, 3. 35, 3. 84, 4. 22, and 4. 65 km 2 of flooded area, and overbank water depths of 4. 6, 5. 1, 5. 7, and 6. 2 m, respectively, in Mianyang, the second largest city in Sichuan Province, 48 km downstream from the blockage. Based on these scenarios, recommendations and plans for excavating a sluiceway, draining the lake, and downstream evacuation were proposed and later were implemented successfully, with the blockage breached by overtopping on June 10, less than a month after dam emplacement. The peak discharge of the release only slightly exceeded the flood of record at Mianyang City. No lives were lost, and significant property damage was avoided. Post-breaching evaluation reveals how future similar mitigation can be improved. Although initial breach erosion was slow, later erosion was judged uncontrollably rapid; increased slope of the engineered channel and adoption of a compound, trapezoid-triangular cross-section can be considered, as can other measures to control the rate of breach incision. Evacuees from Mianyang City spent an unnecessarily long time (12 days) in temporary settlements; more precise risk management planning can reduce this time in the future. ?? 2010 Springer-Verlag.

Cui, P.; Dang, C.; Zhuang, J.; You, Y.; Chen, X.; Scott, K.M.

2012-01-01

283

Different risk-adjusted fund performance measures: a comparison  

OpenAIRE

Traditional risk-adjusted performance measures, such as the Sharpe ratio, the Treynor index or Jensen's alpha, based on the mean-variance framework, are widely used to rank mutual funds. However, performance measures that consider risk by taking into account only losses, such as Value-at-Risk (VaR), would be more appropriate. Standard VaR assumes that returns are normally distributed, though they usually present skewness and kurtosis. In this paper we compare these different measures of risk:...

Grau-carles, Pilar; Sainz, Jorge; Otamendi, Javier; Doncel, Luis Miguel

2009-01-01

284

Risk measures in practical use: risk reduction has its price, but is it known?  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Different risk measures are discussed in order to decide which to use to best express the risk workers are exposed to. A new risk measure is introduced and advantages and disadvantages are presented. The need for a new risk measure (Expected Number of Fatalities Rate ENFR), is discussed and explained with the help of an example. The example also contains a comparison with the well-known FAR-value. Also some problems and benefits of introducing a measure of the kind: ?RISK/?$ are discussed and conclusions made. The question of what amount of money should be used on risk reducing activities is also addressed

285

Sensitive molecular diagnostic assays to mitigate the risks of asymptomatic bacterial diseases of plants.  

Science.gov (United States)

Our highly concentrated monoculture makes crops vulnerable to pests and diseases. An increase in emerging non-indigenous bacterial diseases poses a real threat to US agriculture. The United States has 100,000 miles of shoreline and 6,000 miles of border, making possible easy introduction of crop pests and diseases. Most threatening to crops are the cross-domain enteric bacteria. In contrast to animals, crops have hundreds of major diseases and development of molecular-based detection protocols for each pathogen is impossible with current technology. Rathayibacter toxicus, a neurotoxin-producing bacterium transmitted by a seed gall nematode, is an example of a high-risk Select Agent. The bacterium infects seeds of grasses without showing any symptoms, often resulting in the death of grazing cattle. A prerequisite for the control of any disease is sensitive detection and proper identification of the causal organism. Detecting bacteria in samples of plants showing symptoms is relatively simple, whereas detection in asymptomatic tissues is difficult due to the extremely low numbers of the target pathogen present. Rapid serological assays work well with symptomatic tissues but not from asymptomatic tissue when bacteria levels are below sensitivity limits. Classical agar-plating assays are 1,000 fold more sensitive then serology or PCR. However, agar plating assays take from 3 to 5 days and require pathogenicity tests to confirm the identity. PCR-based assays allow for rapid, accurate identification but are insensitive due to use of 1 microL sample in comparison to 100 microL used for agar plating. To overcome this disadvantage, an enrichment technique termed BIO-PCR can be used in combination with agar plating for detection with asymptomatic tissues. The key to developing a successful BIO-PCR protocol is to determine the time required for development of pin point-size colonies to appear. For most plant pathogens 15 to 24 hours is sufficient time, whereas for the cross-domain bacteria only 1 to 2 hours is needed. For greater sensitivity, BIO-PCR can be combined with 96-well microliter plates with membranes to detect a single viable cell per 10 mL of an aqueous sample. PMID:20370634

Schaad, N; Schuenzel, E

2010-01-01

286

A process-based model for the definition of hydrological alert systems in landslide risk mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

The definition of hydrological alert systems for rainfall-induced landslides is strongly related to a deep knowledge of the geological and geomorphological features of the territory. Climatic conditions, spatial and temporal evolution of the phenomena and characterization of landslide triggering, together with propagation mechanisms, are the key elements to be considered. Critical steps for the development of the systems consist of the identification of the hydrological variable related to landslide triggering and of the minimum rainfall threshold for landslide occurrence. In this paper we report the results from a process-based model to define a hydrological alert system for the Val di Maso Landslide, located in the northeastern Italian Alps and included in the Vicenza Province (Veneto region, NE Italy). The instability occurred in November 2010, due to an exceptional rainfall event that hit the Vicenza Province and the entire NE Italy. Up to 500 mm in 3-day cumulated rainfall generated large flood conditions and triggered hundreds of landslides. During the flood, the Soil Protection Division of the Vicenza Province received more than 500 warnings of instability phenomena. The complexity of the event and the high level of risk to infrastructure and private buildings are the main reasons for deepening the specific phenomenon occurred at Val di Maso. Empirical and physically-based models have been used to identify the minimum rainfall threshold for the occurrence of instability phenomena in the crown area of Val di Maso landslide, where a retrogressive evolution by multiple rotational slides is expected. Empirical models helped in the identification and in the evaluation of recurrence of critical rainfall events, while physically-based modelling was essential to verify the effects on the slope stability of determined rainfall depths. Empirical relationships between rainfall and landslide consist of the calculation of rainfall Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves, which allow one to determine rainfall depth (or intensity) as a function of duration for given return periods or probabilities of exceedance (frequencies). Physically-based modelling was performed through coupled seepage and slope stability analyses. Combining results from empirical and physically-based modelling, the minimum alert threshold for a reactivation of the phenomenon was found in rainfall cumulated up to 60 days with a return period of 2 yr. These results were used to set up a hydrological alert system based on the calibration of DDF curves which can be used as a sort of abacus to plot in real time rainfall depths and to set increasing levels of alert on the basis of the degree of exceptionality of rainfall. The alert system for Val di Maso was successfully tested by the rainfall events that produced displacements which have been recorded by extensometers placed in the crown area after the November 2010 landslide. However, further tests are recommendable to improve the process-based model that led to the implementation of the alert system. To this end, a monitoring system is currently being realized. In the near future, monitoring data will help in testing and improving landslide evolution and alert models. The proposed hydrological alert system proves to be effective mainly because it can be applied to different scales of investigation and geological and geomorphological contexts. In fact, it might also be applicable to territorial scale analyses, as showed by the brief example provided in this paper on how the alert system could be used for landslide early warning in the area surrounding Val di Maso. Furthermore, it is easy to set up. The needed components are a rain gauge station, a software that compares rainfall data to rainfall events with different return periods and degree of alert, and a transmission system of the warning levels to authorities.

Floris, M.; D'Alpaos, A.; De Agostini, A.; Stevan, G.; Tessari, G.; Genevois, R.

2012-11-01

287

A process-based model for the definition of hydrological alert systems in landslide risk mitigation  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The definition of hydrological alert systems for rainfall-induced landslides is strongly related to a deep knowledge of the geological and geomorphological features of the territory. Climatic conditions, spatial and temporal evolution of the phenomena and characterization of landslide triggering, together with propagation mechanisms, are the key elements to be considered. Critical steps for the development of the systems consist of the identification of the hydrological variable related to landslide triggering and of the minimum rainfall threshold for landslide occurrence.

In this paper we report the results from a process-based model to define a hydrological alert system for the Val di Maso Landslide, located in the northeastern Italian Alps and included in the Vicenza Province (Veneto region, NE Italy. The instability occurred in November 2010, due to an exceptional rainfall event that hit the Vicenza Province and the entire NE Italy. Up to 500 mm in 3-day cumulated rainfall generated large flood conditions and triggered hundreds of landslides. During the flood, the Soil Protection Division of the Vicenza Province received more than 500 warnings of instability phenomena. The complexity of the event and the high level of risk to infrastructure and private buildings are the main reasons for deepening the specific phenomenon occurred at Val di Maso.

Empirical and physically-based models have been used to identify the minimum rainfall threshold for the occurrence of instability phenomena in the crown area of Val di Maso landslide, where a retrogressive evolution by multiple rotational slides is expected. Empirical models helped in the identification and in the evaluation of recurrence of critical rainfall events, while physically-based modelling was essential to verify the effects on the slope stability of determined rainfall depths. Empirical relationships between rainfall and landslide consist of the calculation of rainfall Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF curves, which allow one to determine rainfall depth (or intensity as a function of duration for given return periods or probabilities of exceedance (frequencies. Physically-based modelling was performed through coupled seepage and slope stability analyses.

Combining results from empirical and physically-based modelling, the minimum alert threshold for a reactivation of the phenomenon was found in rainfall cumulated up to 60 days with a return period of 2 yr. These results were used to set up a hydrological alert system based on the calibration of DDF curves which can be used as a sort of abacus to plot in real time rainfall depths and to set increasing levels of alert on the basis of the degree of exceptionality of rainfall.

The alert system for Val di Maso was successfully tested by the rainfall events that produced displacements which have been recorded by extensometers placed in the crown area after the November 2010 landslide. However, further tests are recommendable to improve the process-based model that led to the implementation of the alert system. To this end, a monitoring system is currently being realized. In the near future, monitoring data will help in testing and improving landslide evolution and alert models.

The proposed hydrological alert system proves to be effective mainly because it can be applied to different scales of investigation and geological and geomorphological contexts. In fact, it might also be applicable to territorial scale analyses, as showed by the brief example provided in this paper on how the alert system could be used for landslide early warning in the area surrounding Val di Maso. Furthermore, it is easy to set up. The needed components are a rain gauge station, a software that compares rainfall data to rainfall events with different return periods and degree of alert, and a transmission system of the warning levels to authorities.

M. Floris

2012-11-01

288

Safety measure S 05 'Sump clogging risk'  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper dealt with the safety measure S 05 'Sump clogging risk'. Problem specification contains: (1) to determine the effective strainer surface needed to be available in order to assure sufficient coolant volumes for a reliable operation of emergency systems; (2) to determine quantity and structure of insulation material which can be dislodged and can induce strained clogging; (3) to verify properties of insulation material with regard to its thermal degradation as a result of a long-term reactor unit operation; (4) to design and erect strainers so to assure sufficient congestion of emergency pump intake lines in post-accident regimes; (5) to design seismically resistant strainers with a capability to resist dynamic impacts from adjacent piping; (6) to assure monitoring of the strainer condition in real time with signals sent to the main control room

289

A review of monitoring approaches and outcomes of surface water quality mitigation measures in meso-scale agricultural catchments  

Science.gov (United States)

Critical for an informative feedback loop from scientific monitoring of biophysical change, to making and implementing suitable policy to effect the desired change, are both accurate measurement of biophysical change, and measurement or modelling of the causes of change. For example the European Environment Agency uses the DPSIR framework to assess change in the state (S) of natural resources due to changes in specific drivers (D) and pressures (P) that can have an impact (I) and are the focus of policy responses (R). This paper provides a review of meso-catchment scale studies worldwide that have measured the impacts of agricultural land management practice on surface water quality. Approaches for measuring water quality impacts of agricultural mitigation practices in meso-catchments (1-100 km2) ranged from measuring water quality over a time series, such as before and after a land management change, or over a spatial series such as in paired catchments with and without agricultural practice change (or over a gradient of practices or catchment types), and by cause and effect studies that measure sources, pathways and impacts of practices. Agricultural mitigation measures had no measurable effect, or positive, or negative effects on water quality over periods of 3 to 20 years. In most catchments where beneficial effects of mitigation measures were successfully measured, combinations of measures that address nutrient or pollutant sources, pathways, delivery and impact have been implemented. Successful farm measures included substantial reductions in the intensity of the farming systems, improved engineering and crop management to reduce runoff and drainage transport of nutrients and sediment, as well as high rates of implementation of measures across the catchments. In many cases, the potential to measure improvement in one or more water quality indicators was limited by the impact of a few management or weather events. Reasons that water quality did not improve in some studies included the uncertainty inherent in most nutrient flux measurements and a lack of high flow water quality samples that limited the ability of practice impacts to be measured. In other catchments, it was difficult to verify whether a lack of effect was a result of ineffective measures, or because time lags for improvement of water quality were longer than the monitored period. Data on temporal and spatial nutrient source use was generally scarce in comparison with water quality data. Implications of the efficacy of measures and their monitoring programmes for researchers and policy-makers will be discussed.

Melland, Alice; Jordan, Phil; Murphy, Paul; Mellander, Per-Erik; Shortle, Ger

2013-04-01

290

Climate change effects on mitigation measures: The case of extreme wind events and Philippines’ biofuel plan  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Biofuel production has increased dramatically over the past decade, among other to mitigate climate change. However, climate change vulnerability may currently not be sufficiently accounted for in national biofuel strategies, hence neglecting a possible link between mitigation and adaptation to climate change. To the best of our knowledge this potential link has received very little attention in the literature. One example is the Philippines, which is currently implementing an ambitious program of biofuel production. Its aim is to reduce dependency on imported fuel, increase rural employment and incomes, and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. The Philippines is frequently battered by tropical typhoons and from 1975 to 2002 the annual average damage to agriculture was 3.047 billion pesos. We calculate wind damage on biofuel feedstock production, and assess the effect that a future potential increase in tropical cyclone intensity would have on energy security, rural development and climate change mitigation in the Philippines. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to obtain the future expected development of typhoon impacts. Based on the Philippines legislated target of 10% biodiesel blend in gasoline by 2011, simulation of the affected area for each feedstock, and expected biofuel feedstock damage is computed for the Philippine's 80 provinces in 2050, for two different typhoon climate change scenarios. Additional indirect economic effects are assessed in a tentative way. Thffects are assessed in a tentative way. The results suggest a modest decrease in biofuel feedstock productivity at the national level, but with strong local differences that are shown to affect the Philippine's policy goals. In a broader perspective the paper accentuates a so far little described link between climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation. This link may merit further attention by policy makers and development planners in order to ensure that policies are economically sound not only in the short but also medium term.

291

Underbalanced foam drilling : production optimization and risk mitigation for CBM projects  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Naturally fractured, coalbed methane (CBM) reservoirs possess a cleat system which forms the macropore system that contributes primarily to the permeability of the reservoir. The author discussed horizontal wells, indicating that the length is important and that fewer and longer horizontal well exploitation strategies can offset the cost of horizontal drilling. To maximize production, it is imperative to avoid formation damage. A discussion of mechanical damage mechanisms was presented. Formation damage takes place when the solids in the drilling fluid are similar in size or smaller than the cleat width. Chemical damage mechanisms were also discussed. A CBM formation damage study has been performed, involving samples taken form the McRae coal seam in southwestern Alberta, and the samples were cast in epoxy resin to maintain cleat integrity. Plugs measuring 3.81 centimetres were drilled out for testing. Sample preparation was described. Underbalanced drilling techniques were discussed with particular emphasis on drilling with foam. Issues associated with horizontal drilling in CBM reservoirs include poor hole cleaning, wellbore instability, lost circulation, differential sticking, and water inflows. It was concluded that overbalanced drill-in fluids cause severe formation damage in CBM, as shown by core flush testing results. refs., tabs., figs.

Campbell, L. [Weatherford Canada, Bonnyville, AB (Canada); Bennion, B. [Hycal Energy Research Laboratories Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada)

2003-07-01

292

Analysis of mitigating measures during steam/hydrogen distributions in nuclear reactor containments with the 3D field code gasflow  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper reports on the recent model additions to the 3D field code GASFLOW and on validation and application analyses for steam/hydrogen transport with inclusion of mitigation measures. The results of the 3D field simulation of the HDR test E11.2 are summarized. Results from scoping analyses that simulate different modes of CO2 inertization for conditions from the HDR test T31.5 are presented. The last part discusses different ways of recombiner modeling during 3D distribution simulations and gives the results from validation calculations for the HDR recombiner test E11.8.1 and the Battelle test MC3. The results demonstrate that field code simulations with computer codes like GASFLOW are feasible today for complex containment geometries and that they are necessary for a reliable prediction of hydrogen/steam distribution and mitigation effects. (author)

Royl, P.; Travis, J.R.; Haytcher, E.A.; Wilkening, H. [Forschungszentrum Technik und Umwelt Karlsruhe (Germany)

1997-03-01

293

Measures for preventing and mitigating severe accidents of nuclear power plants  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Safety goals, integrity of the containment, accident management, functions of existing equipment and measures and emergency preparedness are discussed as technical basis for implementing the new safety code on the nuclear power plant safety design (HAF-0200(91)). The main quantitative safety goals are presented as core melt frequency -5/ry for new plants and -4/ry for existing or constructed plants, and 0.1% I, Cs release frequency-6/ry. To keep the integrity of the containment, main efforts should be placed on the prevention of early failure of the containment and by pass or isolation failures. Should a late failure of the containment occur at a high probability, measures such as filtering vent should be considered. The leak rate of the containment could be higher than the previous 0.1-0.5 wt%/day, depending on the source term and dose results. But, a limiting leak rate of 1 wt%/day is defined. Accident management involves emergency operating procedures, training and retraining for the AM and adding some supporting equipment and display and diagnostic system for the AM. Those requirements are described. Emergency preparedness and measures can reduced the risk significantly. In the most case of accidents, sheltering is preferred as an effective protective actions

294

Simulation based approach for measuring concentration risk  

OpenAIRE

Asymptotic Single Risk Factor (ASRF) model is used to derive the regulatory capital formula of Internal Ratings-Based approach in the new Basel accord (Basel II). One of the important assumptions in ASRF model for credit risk is that the given portfolio is well diversified so that one can easily calculate the required capital level by focusing only on systematic risk. In real world, however, idiosyncratic risk of a portfolio cannot be fully diversified away, causing the so called concentratio...

Kim, Joocheol; Lee, Duyeol

2007-01-01

295

Two dimensional CFD analysis of shock wave propagation for developing mitigation measures of severe accident explosive loads  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

After Fukushima accident, a new need is raised for preserving integrity of vital components and structures in a nuclear power plant against blast waves from hydrogen and steam explosion during a severe accident. A research is underway for developing hydrodynamic and/or mechanical measures for mitigating such shock waves. For the research, an analysis methodology and its validation for shock wave propagation through diverse media of air, water or mixture and reflection/damping via such measures is important. As a starting point of the development, CFD method is applied for prediction of shock wave propagation in an existing shock tube experiment. And the results are discussed by comparing with previous analyses

296

Two dimensional CFD analysis of shock wave propagation for developing mitigation measures of severe accident explosive loads  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

After Fukushima accident, a new need is raised for preserving integrity of vital components and structures in a nuclear power plant against blast waves from hydrogen and steam explosion during a severe accident. A research is underway for developing hydrodynamic and/or mechanical measures for mitigating such shock waves. For the research, an analysis methodology and its validation for shock wave propagation through diverse media of air, water or mixture and reflection/damping via such measures is important. As a starting point of the development, CFD method is applied for prediction of shock wave propagation in an existing shock tube experiment. And the results are discussed by comparing with previous analyses.

Kim, Jin Su; Park, Jong Woon [Dongguk Univ., GyeongJu (Korea, Republic of)

2012-10-15

297

<> note on portfolio selections under various risk measures  

OpenAIRE

This work gives a brief overview of the portfolio selection problem following the mean-risk approach first proposed by Markowitz (1952). We consider various risk measures, i.e. variance, value-at-risk and expected-shortfall and we study the efficient frontiers obtained by solving the portfolio selection problem under these measures. We show that under the assumption that returns are normally distributed, the efficient frontiers obtained by taking value-at-risk or expected-shortfall are subset...

Giorgi, Enrico Giovanni

2002-01-01

298

The Belgian Risk Perception Barometer Risk Perception Measuring Instruments Revisited  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The recognition of the societal dimension of risk assessment has been at the cradle of the opinion research on risks. Since risk estimates are not fixed by experts anymore, but are considered to show variation across a diverse population, the people themselves must be asked how they experience the risks. Following the rise in popularity of risk assessment and the recognition of its 'human' dimension, the demand for public opinion surveys on risks has been increasing at a fast pace. Unfortunately, this high demand sees some negative consequences. First, surveys are frequently conducted by people lacking even a minimal knowledge of survey methodology. In this respect, we might think of a journal or a newspaper trying to impress their readers with the definitive public opinion poll about the latest issue in vogue. Second, time pressure causes experienced or trained researchers to lower themselves to 'quick and dirty' work. While methodologically flawed opinion research might not be something to worry about when appearing in the amusement press, concern is due if the results of a survey inspire policy development. Indeed, when public opinion research is conceived as an instrument to support rational, evidence based public policy, the strictest methodological standards should be applied, even if it is clear that scientific research will never substitute political reasoning. This contribution deals with the safeguarding and enhancing of the quality of large scale surveys focusing on risk perception and related issues. This attention is relevant, not only for the reason that methodological standards may be flawed due to the immense popularity of the opinion poll, but also because the results of opinion surveys may have far-reaching policy consequences.

Aeken, Koen van; Carle, Benny; Hardeman, Frank [SCK-CEN, Mol (Belgium). PISA

2006-09-15

299

The Belgian Risk Perception Barometer Risk Perception Measuring Instruments Revisited  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The recognition of the societal dimension of risk assessment has been at the cradle of the opinion research on risks. Since risk estimates are not fixed by experts anymore, but are considered to show variation across a diverse population, the people themselves must be asked how they experience the risks. Following the rise in popularity of risk assessment and the recognition of its 'human' dimension, the demand for public opinion surveys on risks has been increasing at a fast pace. Unfortunately, this high demand sees some negative consequences. First, surveys are frequently conducted by people lacking even a minimal knowledge of survey methodology. In this respect, we might think of a journal or a newspaper trying to impress their readers with the definitive public opinion poll about the latest issue in vogue. Second, time pressure causes experienced or trained researchers to lower themselves to 'quick and dirty' work. While methodologically flawed opinion research might not be something to worry about when appearing in the amusement press, concern is due if the results of a survey inspire policy development. Indeed, when public opinion research is conceived as an instrument to support rational, evidence based public policy, the strictest methodological standards should be applied, even if it is clear that scientific research will never substitute political reasoning. This contribution deals with the safeguarding and enhancing of the quality of large scale surveys focusing on risk perception and related issues. This attention is relevant, not only for the reason that methodological standards may be flawed due to the immense popularity of the opinion poll, but also because the results of opinion surveys may have far-reaching policy consequences

300

Using high-resolution phosphorus data to investigate mitigation measures in headwater river catchments  

Science.gov (United States)

This study reports the use of high-resolution water quality monitoring to assess the influence of changes in land use management on total phosphorus (TP) transfers in two 5 km2 agricultural sub-catchments. Specifically, the work investigates the issue of agricultural soil P management and subsequent diffuse transfers at high river flows over a 5-year timescale. The work also investigates the phenomenon of low flow P pollution from septic tank systems (STSs) and mitigation efforts - a key concern for catchment management. Results showed an inconsistent response to soil P management over 5 years with one catchment showing a convergence to optimum P concentrations and the other an overall increase. Both catchments indicated an overall increase in P concentration in defined high flow ranges. Low flow P concentration showed little change or higher P concentrations in defined low flow ranges despite replacement of defective systems and this is possibly due to a number of confounding reasons including increased housing densities due to new-builds. The work indicates fractured responses to catchment management advice and mitigation and that the short to medium term may be an insufficient time to expect the full implementation of policies (here defined as convergence to optimum soil P concentration and mitigation of STSs) and also to gauge their effectiveness.

Campbell, J. M.; Jordan, P.; Arnscheidt, J.

2015-01-01

301

Using high-resolution phosphorus data to investigate mitigation measures in headwater river catchments  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This study reports the use of high resolution water quality monitoring to assess the influence of changes in landuse management on total phosphorus (TP transfers in two 5 km2 agricultural sub-catchments. Specifically, the work investigates the "wicked problem" of agricultural soil P management and subsequent diffuse transfers at high river flows over a five year timescale. The work also investigates the phenomenon of low flow P pollution from septic tank systems (STS and mitigation efforts – here termed the "filthy issue" of rural catchment management. Results showed an inconsistent response to soil P management over five years with one catchment showing a convergence to optimum P concentrations and the other an overall increase. Both catchments indicated an overall increase in P concentration in defined high flow ranges. Low flow P concentration showed little change or higher P concentrations in defined low flow ranges despite replacement of defective systems and this is possibly due to a number of confounding reasons including increased housing densities due to new-builds. The work indicates fractured responses to catchment management advice and mitigation and that the short to medium term may be an insufficient time to expect the full implementation of policies (here defined as convergence to optimum soil P concentration and mitigation of STS and also to gauge their effectiveness.

J. M. Campbell

2014-09-01

302

Measuring, and identifying predictors of, women's perceptions of three types of breast cancer risk: population risk, absolute risk and comparative risk  

OpenAIRE

Although a key function of cancer genetics services is to provide risk information, to date there has been little consistency in the way in which breast cancer risk perception has been measured. The aims of the study were to measure estimates of (i) population risk, (ii) absolute risk and (iii) comparative risk of developing breast cancer for Ashkenazi Jewish women, and to determine predictors of breast cancer risk perception. Of 152 women, 107 (70%) completed all questions. The mean (s.d.) e...

Apicella, C.; Peacock, S. J.; Andrews, L.; Tucker, K.; Daly, M. B.; Hopper, J. L.

2009-01-01

303

HAZARD RISK ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT IN CONSTRUCTION SECTOR OF PAKISTAN  

OpenAIRE

Risks are very common in construction sector. Risk is the possibility of suffering loss and the impact of loss on the involved parties. Firstly risk is identified and then risk assessment and analysis is done. Then Risk management and risk mitigation is carried out. Risks affect construction sector negatively and focusing on risk reduction measures is important. Hazards like earthquakes are also main risks affecting construction sector in Pakistan. To counter earthquake risk, the measures of ...

Muhammad Haseeb -; Prof. Xinhailu; Aneesa Bib; Wahab Rabbani

2011-01-01

304

Measuring the risk of an Iranian banking system using Value at Risk (VaR) Model  

OpenAIRE

Measuring risk of financial institutes and banks plays an important role on managing them. Recent financial turmoil in United States banking system has motivated banking industry to monitor risk factors more closely. In this paper, we present an empirical study to measure the risk of some private banks in Iran called Bank Mellat using Value at Risk (VaR) method. The proposed study collects the necessary information for the fiscal year of 2010 and analyses them using regression analysis. The s...

Sudabeh Morshedian Rafiee; Zahra Houshmand Neghabi; Ali Feizollahei

2012-01-01

305

Validating the backtests of risk measures  

OpenAIRE

Financial risk model evaluation or backtesting is a key part of the internal model’s approach to market risk management as laid out by the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision (2004). However there are a number of backtests that may be applied and there is little guidance as to the most appropriate method. The goal of this paper is to analyze the ability of various evaluation methodologies to gauge the accuracy of risk models. We compare evaluation effectiveness using the s...

Cotter, John; Zhong, Yan Ping

2007-01-01

306

Bank Risk Measurement: A Critical Evaluation at a European Bank  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This article assesses bank management’s perspective on the use and effectiveness of the risk measurement system under Basel II that setcapital requirements for banks. These requirements encouraged the use of risk measurement. Semi-structured interviews with various bank managers at Viking Bank (a fictitious name provide the empirical data for this research. These interviews were conducted after the global financial crisis that led, among other events, to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. Viking Bank was an important European bank that embraced Basel II and risk measurement. In its efforts to implement risk measurement, the bank’s management accounting department was reduced and subordinated to the risk measurement department. Risk measurement information became the bank’s primary source of information for some loans. However, in their decision-making, managers showed mixed support for risk measurement that had, in some instances, become disconnected from operations. For other loans, they preferred to use their so-called Expert Judgement. The narrow and limited career paths available for the risk measurement specialists also reflected the decreased influence of risk measurement on decision-making at the bank.

Gunnar Wahlström

2013-06-01

307

GHG (Greenhouse Gases) emission inventory and mitigation measures for public district heating plants in the Republic of Serbia  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

As a non-Annex I Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol signatory, the Republic of Serbia has committed to develop GHG (Greenhouse Gases) emission inventory and prepare comprehensive program of mitigation measures at national level. The paper presents results of 2000–2008 GHG emission inventory assembled for PDH (Public District Heating) sub-sector in accordance with revised IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Tier 1 methodology. Evaluation of proposed mitigation measures was performed based on 2012 and 2015 GHG emission projections, obtained for basic and four alternative scenarios, all characterized by the same energy demand but with different fuel mix used. The first alternative scenario addresses GHG emissions in case that solid fuel is substituted by natural gas. The second alternative scenario represents a sub-scenario of the first alternative scenario, with additional substitution of liquid fuel with locally available biomass. Third alternative scenario addresses emissions resulting from complete fuel switch from natural gas to liquid fuel oil, while the final alternative scenario considers the case when natural gas is the only energy resource used. GHG emission trends in the period until 2015, examined in case of previously mentioned basic and four alternative scenarios, point out to the positive impact of fuel switch on GHG emission reduction and pathways for future implementation of proposed mitigation measures. Results obtained clearly quantified assumption that fuel substitution by locally available biomass could solve environmental problems, overcome problems associated with high prices of imported fuels, improve energy supply security and increase local employment

308

Why changing the way to measure the risk ?  

OpenAIRE

The SEVESO II Directive gives the rules to identify high risk potential establishments with the amount of hazardous substances handled and their operators have to produce safety reports. Although rules are well established to identify potential risk, there is no method to measure the risk level which takes into account safety devices and safety management Systems implemented by operators.

Salvi, Olivier; Gaston, Didier

1999-01-01

309

Risk Measurement and Risk Modelling using Applications of Vine Copulas  

OpenAIRE

This paper features an application of Regular Vine copulas which are a novel and recently developed statistical and mathematical tool which can be applied in the assessment of composite financial risk. Copula-based dependence modelling is a popular tool in financial applications, but is usually applied to pairs of securities. By contrast, Vine copulas provide greater flexibility and permit the modelling of complex dependency patterns using the rich variety of bivariate copulas which may be ar...

Allen, David E.; Mcaleer, Michael; Singh, Abhay K.

2014-01-01

310

Risk measurement and management in a crisis-prone world  

OpenAIRE

The current subprime crisis has prompted us to look again into the nature of risk at the tail of the distribution. In particular, we investigate the risk contribution of an asset, which has infrequent but huge losses, to a portfolio using two risk measures, namely Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). While ES is found to measure the tail risk contribution effectively, VaR is consistent with intuition only if the underlying return distribution is well behaved. To facilitate the use...

Wong, Woon K.; Copeland, Laurence

2008-01-01

311

Evaluating the effectiveness of urban energy conservation and GHG mitigation measures: The case of Xiamen city, China  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

To assess the effectiveness of urban energy conservation and GHG mitigation measures, a detailed Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model is developed and applied to analyze the future trends of energy demand and GHG emissions in Xiamen city. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future energy strategies in relation to the development of Xiamen city. The 'Business as Usual' scenario assumes that the government will do nothing to influence the long-term trends of urban energy demand. An 'Integrated' scenario, on the other hand, is generated to assess the cumulative impact of a series of available reduction measures: clean energy substitution, industrial energy conservation, combined heat and power generation, energy conservation in building, motor vehicle control, and new and renewable energy development and utilization. The reduction potentials in energy consumption and GHG emissions are estimated for a time span of 2007-2020 under these different scenarios. The calculation results in Xiamen show that the clean energy substitution measure is the most effective in terms of energy saving and GHG emissions mitigation, while the industrial sector has the largest abatement potential.

312

Cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gases mitigation measures in the European agro-forestry sector: a literature survey  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Over the last 20 years, climate change has become an increasing concern for scientists, public opinions and policy makers. Due to the pervasive nature of its impacts for many important aspects of human life, climate change is likely to influence and be influenced by the most diverse policy or management choices. This is particularly true for those interventions affecting agriculture and forestry: they are strongly dependent on climate phenomena, but also contribute to climate evolution being sources of and sinks for greenhouse gases (GHG). This paper offers a survey of the existing literature assessing cost-effectiveness and efficiency of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies or the effects of broader economic reforms in the agricultural and forestry sectors. The focus is mainly on European countries. Different methodological approaches, research questions addressed and results are examined. The main findings are that agriculture can potentially provide emissions reduction at a competitive cost, mainly with methane abatement, while carbon sequestration seems more cost-effective with appropriate forest management measures. Afforestation, cropland management and bioenergy are less economically viable measures due to competition with other land use. Mitigation policies should be carefully designed either to balance costs with expected benefits in terms of social welfare. Regional variability is one of the main drawbacks to fully assess the cost-effectiveness of different measures. Integration of models to take into account both social welfare and spatial heterogeneity seems to be the frontier of the next model generation.

Povellato, Andrea [Istituto Nazionale di Economia Agraria (INEA), Via dell' Universita, 14, I-35020 Legnaro (PD) (Italy); Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Castello, 5252, I-30122 Venice (Italy); Bosello, Francesco [Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Castello, 5252, I-30122 Venice (Italy); Giupponi, Carlo [Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Castello, 5252, I-30122 Venice (Italy) and Universita degli Studi di Milano, Dipartimento di Produzione Vegetale, Via Celoria, 2, I-20133 Milan (Italy)]. E-mail: carlo.giupponi@unimi.it

2007-08-15

313

Spray drift of pesticides and stream macroinvertebrates: Experimental evidence of impacts and effectiveness of mitigation measures  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Impoverished stream communities in agricultural landscapes have been associated with pesticide contamination, but conclusive evidence of causality is rare. We address this deficiency by adopting an experimental approach to investigate the effects of the insecticides cypermethrin and chlorpyrifos on benthic macroinvertebrates. Three treatments were established and a combination of biomarker, bioassay and biomonitoring approaches was employed to investigate, individual, population and community-level effects. Animals deployed during pesticide application had altered enzyme activity, depressed feeding rate and reduced survival, but these effects were only observed where pesticide was sprayed to the stream edge. There were no clear pesticide-related effects on macroinvertebrate community structure or on the population densities of individual species. Hence, short-term pesticide exposure did cause individual-level effects in stream macroinvertebrates, but these were not translated to effects at the population or community-level and were effectively mitigated by the adoption of a no-spray buffer zone. - Pulsed pesticide exposures via spray drift adversely affected stream invertebrates but did not cause population or community-level effects and were mitigated by no-spray buffer zones.

Maltby, Lorraine [Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN (United Kingdom)], E-mail: l.maltby@sheffield.ac.uk; Hills, Louise [Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN (United Kingdom)

2008-12-15

314

Spray drift of pesticides and stream macroinvertebrates: Experimental evidence of impacts and effectiveness of mitigation measures  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Impoverished stream communities in agricultural landscapes have been associated with pesticide contamination, but conclusive evidence of causality is rare. We address this deficiency by adopting an experimental approach to investigate the effects of the insecticides cypermethrin and chlorpyrifos on benthic macroinvertebrates. Three treatments were established and a combination of biomarker, bioassay and biomonitoring approaches was employed to investigate, individual, population and community-level effects. Animals deployed during pesticide application had altered enzyme activity, depressed feeding rate and reduced survival, but these effects were only observed where pesticide was sprayed to the stream edge. There were no clear pesticide-related effects on macroinvertebrate community structure or on the population densities of individual species. Hence, short-term pesticide exposure did cause individual-level effects in stream macroinvertebrates, but these were not translated to effects at the population or community-level and were effectively mitigated by the adoption of a no-spray buffer zone. - Pulsed pesticide exposures via spray drift adversely affected stream invertebrates but did not cause population or community-level effects and were mitigated by no-spray buffer zones

315

Risk importance measures in the dynamic flowgraph methodology  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper presents new risk importance measures applicable to a dynamic reliability analysis approach with multi-state components. Dynamic reliability analysis methods are needed because traditional methods, such as fault tree analysis, can describe system's dynamical behaviour only in limited manner. Dynamic flowgraph methodology (DFM) is an approach used for analysing systems with time dependencies and feedback loops. The aim of DFM is to identify root causes of a top event, usually representing the system's failure. Components of DFM models are analysed at discrete time points and they can have multiple states. Traditional risk importance measures developed for static and binary logic are not applicable to DFM as such. Some importance measures have previously been developed for DFM but their ability to describe how components contribute to the top event is fairly limited. The paper formulates dynamic risk importance measures that measure the importances of states of components and take the time-aspect of DFM into account in a logical way that supports the interpretation of results. Dynamic risk importance measures are developed as generalisations of the Fussell-Vesely importance and the risk increase factor. -- Highlights: • New risk importance measures are developed for the dynamic flowgraph methodology. • Dynamic risk importance measures are formulated for states of components. • An approach to handle failure modes of a component in DFM is presented. • Dynamic risk importance measures take failure times into account. • Component's influence on the system's reliability can be analysed in detail

316

The ICDP-CFDDP Project: Understanding caldera dynamics and mitigating the extreme risk of the most urbanised volcano in the World  

Science.gov (United States)

The Campi Flegrei Deep Drilling Project (CFDDP) entered the operative phase during the second half of 2012, with the pilot hole drilling. The Project was initiated to address two kinds of problems: 1) purely volcanological, to understand in detail the dynamics of the most explosive and yet mostly unknown volcanism on the Earth with the potential to generate global catastrophes, and 2) to mitigate the highest volcanic risk in the World, namely the one associated with the metropolitan area of Naples where more than 3,000,000 people are exposed to extreme risk. The CFDDP Project offers the only direct means to understand the physics driving the on-going ground uplift affecting the area since at least six centuries, through in situ and laboratory measurements of rock rheology and permeability. In particular, direct investigation at depth by drilling is essential for understanding the extent that shallow magma intrusion is involved in the uplift of 15 to 20 m accumulated over the last centuries. Such a high cumulative uplift corresponds to 1-10 km3 of new magma intruded into the system, depending on details of the model used. Such an erupted volume should be conservatively assumed as the worst scenario for a future eruption. This corresponds to a massive eruption, largest than any other one after the caldera-forming Yellow Tuff eruption of 15,000 y BP and not much smaller than that, which would anyway require evacuation of some millions people. An alternative possibility is that the cumulative uplift is mostly due to shallow geothermal perturbations as described in several recent publications. Both possibilities, each with widely differing hazard implications, rely strongly on as yet poorly known conditions at depth beneath the caldera. It is thus crucial to discriminate between these two opposing possibilities in order to clarify the worst scenario for a future eruption and to provide an invaluable tool for civil defence at this densely populated area. This presentation describes preliminary results obtained from CFDDP pilot hole, reaching a final depth of 502 m, which show considerable promise in answering the main open questions. From a volcanological point of view, they enlighten in an unprecedented way the dynamics of the Bagnoli-Fuorigrotta plain, the easternmost part of the caldera and the most densely populated because it includes the city of Naples. Furthermore, they allowed for the first in-situ measurements, at 500 m of depth, of loading stress and fluid-dynamical parameters like permeability, thus already representing a large step forward towards a complete fluid-dynamical interpretation of the ground uplift episodes called 'bradyseism'.

De Natale, Giuseppe; Troise, Claudia; Carlino, Stefano; Somma, Renato; Piochi, Monica; Di Vito, Mauro; Isaia, Roberto; De Vita, Sandro; Sacchi, Marco; Josè Jurado, Maria; Wiersberg, Thomas; Kueck, Jochem; Molisso, Flavia; Erzinger, Joerge; Kilburn, Christopher R. J.; Gudmundsson, Agust; Burg, Jean Pierre; Zappone, Alba; Hill, David P.

2013-04-01

317

Catalytic combustion of hydrogen for mitigating hydrogen risk in case of a severe accident in a nuclear power plant. Study of catalysts poisoning in a representative atmosphere  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In case of a severe (beyond design basis) accident in a nuclear power plant, a large amount of hydrogen could be generated by reaction of water of the primary coolant circuit with the fuel rods inside the reactor pressure vessel, and eventually released into the air-filled reactor building. For mitigating the risk of an explosion within the containment, a catalytic combustion of this hydrogen is considered as one of the most efficient counter-measure. The difficulty which is to be overcome is a possible poisoning of the catalyst by fission products and other components released by the damaged core, notwithstanding the fact that most of them enter the containment building as non-reactive large oxide particles. The main vapors which are suspected to have an inhibiting or poisoning effect are indeed di-iodine and methyl iodide, both potentially present in the containment atmosphere. We report on the possible effect of these molecules on Pt, Pd and Pt-Pd model catalysts at lower temperatures and somewhat higher iodine or iodide concentrations, as compared to inferred catalyst operational parameters in a reactor building during a severe accident. In these particular experimental conditions, platinum is substantially poisoned by both vapors. On the other hand, palladium, about 400 times less active than platinum, is much less altered by I2 and ICH3 vapors. A marked beneficial effect was found by alloying the two noble metals: the alloys show only a thro noble metals: the alloys show only a threefold decrease in activity with respect to platinum, and undergo a much weaker deactivation

318

Nuclear risk reduction measures and restraint regime in South Asia  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A nuclear restraint is a central objective in any nuclear environment. Changing dynamics of the nuclear arena, Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) and Nuclear Risk Reduction Measures (NRRM) are discussed

319

Mitigation Action Plan  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This Mitigation Action Plan (MAP) focuses on mitigation commitments stated in the Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (SEIS) and the Record of Decision (ROD) for the Naval Petroleum Reserve No. 1 (NPR-1). Specific commitments and mitigation implementation actions are listed in Appendix A-Mitigation Actions, and form the central focus of this MAP. They will be updated as needed to allow for organizational, regulatory, or policy changes. It is the intent of DOE to comply with all applicable federal, state, and local environmental, safety, and health laws and regulations. Eighty-six specific commitments were identified in the SEIS and associated ROD which pertain to continued operation of NPR-1 with petroleum production at the Maximum Efficient Rate (MER). The mitigation measures proposed are expected to reduce impacts as much as feasible, however, as experience is gained in actual implementation of these measures, some changes may be warranted.

1994-02-01

320

Design measures for prevention and mitigation of severe accidents at advanced water cooled reactors. Proceedings of a technical committee meeting  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Over 8500 reactor-years of operating experience have been accumulated with the current nuclear energy systems. New generations of nuclear power plants are being developed, building upon this background of experience. During the last decade, requirements for equipment specifically intended to minimize releases of radioactive material to the environment in the event of a core melt accident have been introduced, and designs for new plants include measures for preventing and mitigating a range of severe accident scenarios. The IAEA Technical Committee Meeting on Impact of Severe Accidents on Plant Design and Layout of Advanced Water Cooled Reactors was jointly organized by the Department of Nuclear Energy and the Department of Nuclear Safety to review measures which are being incorporated into advanced water cooled reactor designs for preventing and mitigating severe accidents, the status of experimental and analytical investigations of severe accident phenomena and challenges which support design decisions and accident management procedures, and to understand the impact of explicitly addressing severe accidents on the cost of nuclear power plants. This publication is intended to provide an objective source of information on this topic. It includes 14 papers presented at the Technical Committee meeting held in Vienna between 21-25 October 1996. It also includes a Summary and Findings of the Working Groups. The papers were grouped in three sections. A separate abstract was prepared for each paper

321

Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques are considered as components of the radiation risk. The influence of the exposure risk on type and extent of radiation protection measurements is discussed with regard to different measuring tasks. Based upon measuring results concerning the frequency of certain external and internal occupational exposures in the GDR, it has been shown that only a small fraction of the monitored persons are subjected to a high exposure risk. As a consequence the following recommendations are presented: occupationally exposed persons with small exposure risk should be monitored using only a long-term desimeter (for instance a thermoluminescence desimeter). In the case of internal exposure, the surface and air contamination levels should be controlled so strictly that routine measurements of internal contamination need not be performed

322

Construction and measurements of a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system  

CERN Document Server

Long-lived alpha and beta emitters in the $^{222}$Rn decay chain on (and near) detector surfaces may be the limiting background in many experiments attempting to detect dark matter or neutrinoless double-beta decay, and in screening detectors. In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto the wires of the BetaCage during its assembly, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at Syracuse University using a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system. The radon filter shows ~20$\\times$ reduction at its output, from 7.47$\\pm$0.56 to 0.37$\\pm$0.12 Bq/m$^3$, and the cleanroom radon activity meets project requirements, with a lowest achieved value consistent with that of the filter, and levels consistently < 2 Bq/m$^3$.

Schnee, R W; Ghulam, G; Jardin, D; Kos, M; Tenney, A S

2014-01-01

323

Construction and measurements of a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Long-lived alpha and beta emitters in the {sup 222}Rn decay chain on (and near) detector surfaces may be the limiting background in many experiments attempting to detect dark matter or neutrinoless double beta decay, and in screening detectors. In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto the wires of the Beta Cage during its assembly, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at Syracuse University using a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system. The radon filter shows ?20× reduction at its output, from 7.47±0.56 to 0.37±0.12 Bq/m{sup 3}, and the cleanroom radon activity meets project requirements, with a lowest achieved value consistent with that of the filter, and levels consistently < 2 Bq/m{sup 3}.

Schnee, R. W.; Bunker, R.; Ghulam, G.; Jardin, D.; Kos, M.; Tenney, A. S. [Department of Physics, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY 13244 (United States)

2013-08-08

324

Radon mitigation survey among New York State residents living in high radon homes  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In order to evaluate the effectiveness of New York State Department of Health's efforts to increase public awareness about radon risk and to promote radon testing and mitigation in compliance with EPA's guideline, a statewide radon mitigation survey was conducted between September 1995 and January 1996 among New York State residents whose homes had radon levels equal to or greater than 148 Bq m-3 on the first floor (or above) living areas. The survey found that about 60% of 1,113 participants had taken actions for radon mitigation. The percentage of respondents who took actions to reduce radon levels in their homes increased with increasing education level as well as household income level. The method of installing a powered system to provide more ventilation was a more effective mitigation method than opening windows/doors or sealing cracks/openings in the basement. Mitigation performed by contractors was more effective in reducing radon levels than mitigation performed by residents. The reasons for performing radon mitigation given by the majority of respondents were those strongly related to radon health risk. High home radon level was an important motivational factor to stimulate radon mitigation. On the other hand, the cost of radon mitigation was a major barrier in decision making for performing radon mitigation and for selecting mitigation measures

325

NITRATE TOXICITY IN GROUNDWATER: ITS CLINICAL MANIFESTATIONS, PREVENTIVE MEASURES AND MITIGATION STRATEGIES  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Groundwater pollution has become a drastic problem principally because of nature and wide spread use of modern chemicals viz. pesticides and fertilizers. Excessive application of fertilizers as well as organic wastes and sewage has been implicated in the nitrogen pollution of groundwater. Therefore, the issue of rising nitrate concentration in groundwater has become a subject of extensive research in India and Rajasthan in particular. In natural water, nitrate ((NO3- N is usually 100ppm and in organic matters (amine and /or amides resulting in the production of nitrosamines (carcinogens. Number of cases (human and livestock, suffering from gastric cancer have been observed. Reverse osmosis (RO process has great potential in the mitigation of nitrate ion containing waters. Generally, the presence of particular substances may affect the removal of specific ions. The presence of di-hydrogen phosphate ions (DHP-ions in the feed solution enhances the nitrate removal efficiency of the polyamide RO membrane. In this present research work, a Flmtec TW30, polyamide thin-film composite, RO membrane was used for nitrate removal through RO set up. The rejection of individual nitrate was found to be around 76%. After addition of KH2¬PO4 to the feed containing nitrate ions the rejection was improved up to 84. This high level of increment in rejection of nitrate ion indicates the possible usage of KH2¬PO4 in RO for nitrate removal. This fact of removal is due to the K+ ions binding to the electronic lone-pairs of polyamide membrane holding di-hydrogen phosphate ions. This establishes a negative layer on the surface of the membrane. The diffusion of nitrate through the membrane is diminished by the formed layer. Present manuscript delineates clinical manifestations of nitrate toxicity and mitigation of nitrate ion by means of state-of-the-art reverse osmosis technology.

Raaz K. Maheshwari

2013-09-01

326

CO{sub 2}-mitigation measures through reduction of fossil fuel burning in power utilities. Which road to go?  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Five conditions, at minimum, should be examined in the comparative analysis of CO{sub 2}-mitigation options for the power sector. Under the continuing constraint of scarce financial resources for any private or public investment in the power sector, the following combination of requirements characterise a successful CO{sub 2}-mitigation project: (1) Financial attractiveness for private or public investors. (2) Low, or even negative, long range marginal costs per ton of `CO{sub 2} saved`. (3) High impact on CO{sub 2}-mitigation, which indicates a large market potential for the measure. (4) The number of individual investments required to achieve the impact is relatively small. In other words, logistical difficulties in project implementation are minimised. (5) The projects are `socially fair` and have minimal negative impact on any segment of the society. This paper deals with options to reduce carbonaceous fuel burning in the power sector. Part I explains how projects should be selected and classified. Part II describes the technical options. Since reduction of carbonaceous fuel burning may be achieved through Demand Side Management (DSM) and Supply Side Management (SSM) both are treated. Within the context of this paper SSM does not mean to expand power supply as demand grows. It means to economically generate and distribute power as efficiently as possible. In too many instances DSM has degenerated into efficient lighting programs and utility managed incentives and rebate programs. To what extent this is a desirable situation for utilities in Developing Countries that face totally different problems as their counterparts in highly industrialised countries remains to be seen. Which road to go is the topic of this paper.

Kaupp, A. [Energetica International Inc., Suva (Fiji)

1996-12-31

327

Marel´s expansions in Vietnam: maximizing the returns and mitigating the risks : can Export Credit Agencies help?  

OpenAIRE

When private companies engage in cross border trade and/or investments in emerging market economies they are faced with risks that are different from risks in domestic markets. Emerging markets can offer opportunities for high returns, but at the same time the risks, including both commercial and non-commercial risks, can be high. Those risks need to be managed. Many private companies in developed economies and their business partners in emerging markets, including Vietnam, do not seem to be ...

Dinh, Trung Quang

2012-01-01

328

Measures of risk for the classical risk process using saddlepoint approximation techniques  

Science.gov (United States)

Focussing on the classical Cramér-Lundberg risk process, the main goal of this work is to provide an evaluation method for the insurer risk due to ruin over an infinite time horizon. In analogy to the well-known value of risk and tail value of risk, Gatto and Baumgartner [1] suggest the risk measures value at ruin and tail value at ruin for risk processes with additional Wiener perturbation as well as saddlepoint approximations to those risk measures. Since the special case with no perturbation is not discussed there, this is done here using the same ideas. In essence, the saddlepoint approximation method for obtaining quantiles provided by Wang [2] is combined with saddlepoint approximation results of Barndorff-Nielsen and Schmidli [3].

Baumgartner, Benjamin

2012-09-01

329

Qualitative risk assessment in a data-scarce environment: a model to assess the impact of control measures on spread of African Swine Fever.  

Science.gov (United States)

In the absence of data, qualitative risk assessment frameworks have proved useful to assess risks associated with animal health diseases. As part of a scientific opinion for the European Commission (EC) on African Swine Fever (ASF), a working group of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) assessed the risk of ASF remaining endemic in Trans Caucasus Countries (TCC) and the Russian Federation (RF) and the risk of ASF becoming endemic in the EU if disease were introduced. The aim was to develop a tool to evaluate how current control or preventive measures mitigate the risk of spread and giving decision makers the means to review how strengthening of surveillance and control measures would mitigate the risk of disease spread. Based on a generic model outlining disease introduction, spread and endemicity in a region, the impact of risk mitigation measures on spread of disease was assessed for specific risk questions. The resulting hierarchical models consisted of key steps containing several sub-steps. For each step of the risk pathways risk estimates were determined by the expert group based on existing data or through expert opinion elicitation. Risk estimates were combined using two different combination matrices, one to combine estimates of independent steps and one to combine conditional probabilities. The qualitative risk assessment indicated a moderate risk that ASF will remain endemic in current affected areas in the TCC and RF and a high risk of spread to currently unaffected areas. If introduced into the EU, ASF is likely to be controlled effectively in the production sector with high or limited biosecurity. In the free range production sector, however, there is a moderate risk of ASF becoming endemic due to wild boar contact, non-compliance with animal movement bans, and difficult access to all individual pigs upon implementation of control measures. This study demonstrated the advantages of a systematic framework to assist an expert panel to carry out a risk assessment as it helped experts to disassociate steps in the risk pathway and to overcome preconceived notions of final risk estimates. The approach presented here shows how a qualitative risk assessment framework can address animal diseases with complexity in their spread and control measures and how transparency of the resulting estimates was achieved. PMID:21292336

Wieland, Barbara; Dhollander, Sofie; Salman, Mo; Koenen, Frank

2011-04-01

330

Feasibility of Portfolio Optimization under Coherent Risk Measures  

OpenAIRE

It is shown that the axioms for coherent risk measures imply that whenever there is an asset in a portfolio that dominates the others in a given sample (which happens with finite probability even for large samples), then this portfolio cannot be optimized under any coherent measure on that sample, and the risk measure diverges to minus infinity. This instability was first discovered on the special example of Expected Shortfall which is used here both as an illustration and a...

Kondor, Imre; Varga-haszonits, Istvan

2008-01-01

331

Noise sensitivity of portfolio selection under various risk measures  

OpenAIRE

We study the sensitivity to estimation error of portfolios optimized under various risk measures, including variance, absolute deviation, expected shortfall and maximal loss. We introduce a measure of portfolio sensitivity and test the various risk measures by considering simulated portfolios of varying sizes N and for different lengths T of the time series. We find that the effect of noise is very strong in all the investigated cases, asymptotically it only depends on the r...

Kondor, Imre; Pafka, Szilard; Nagy, Gabor

2006-01-01

332

Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology Rev 1  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Documentation of the methodology used to calculate relative hazard and risk measure results for the DOE complex wide risk profiles. This methodology is used on major site risk profiles. In February 1997, the Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) was created and charged as a technical, field-based partner to the Office of Science and Risk Policy (EM-52). One of the initial charges to the CRE is to assist the sites in the development of ''site risk profiles.'' These profiles are to be relatively short summaries (periodically updated) that present a broad perspective on the major risk related challenges that face the respective site. The risk profiles are intended to serve as a high-level communication tool for interested internal and external parties to enhance the understanding of these risk-related challenges. The risk profiles for each site have been designed to qualitatively present the following information: (1) a brief overview of the site, (2) a brief discussion on the historical mission of the site, (3) a quote from the site manager indicating the site's commitment to risk management, (4) a listing of the site's top risk-related challenges, (5) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's current risk picture, (6) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's future risk reduction picture, and (7) graphic illustrations of the projected management of the relative hazards at the site. The graphic illustrations were included to provide the rlustrations were included to provide the reader of the risk profiles with a high-level mental picture to associate with all the qualitative information presented in the risk profile. Inclusion of these graphic illustrations presented the CRE with the challenge of how to fold this high-level qualitative risk information into a system to produce a numeric result that would depict the relative change in hazard, associated with each major risk management action, so it could be presented graphically. This report presents the methodology developed to produce the graphic illustrations showing the relative hazard and risk reductions that occur as a result of a site's projected risk management actions. The evaluation of relative hazard values is described and illustrated first (Sections 2 and 3) followed by the risk measure evaluations (Sections 4 and 5)

333

A Non-Gaussian Approach to Risk Measures  

CERN Document Server

Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modeling the power-law tails of the returns distribution in terms of a Student-t distribution. Non-Gaussian closed-form solutions for Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall are obtained and standard formulae known in the literature under the normality assumption are recovered as a special case. The implications of the approach for risk management are demonstrated through an empirical analysis of financial time series from the Italian stock market and in comparison with the results of the most widely used procedures of quantitative finance. Particular attention is paid to quantify the size of the errors affecting the market risk measures obtained according to different methodologies, by employing a bootstrap technique.

Bormetti, G; Montagna, G; Nicrosini, O

2006-01-01

334

Downgrading Complexity in the Exxon Valdez Crisis: Using Information as a Risk Mitigation Tool in Complex Adaptive Systems  

OpenAIRE

 

In a high-stakes crisis environment, trial and error can be too costly an approach. The Exxon Valdez oil spill provides an example of how complex adaptive systems can have simple, preventable problems and complex, unpredictable problems can come together with disastrous consequences. Not every possible contingency can be accounted for. However, research and experience can be applied to mitigate these type...

Eric Snow

2010-01-01

335

Alternative measures of risk of extreme events in decision trees  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A need for a methodology to control the extreme events, defined as low-probability, high-consequence incidents, in sequential decisions is identified. A variety of alternative and complementary measures of the risk of extreme events are examined for their usability as objective functions in sequential decisions, represented as single- or multiple-objective decision trees. Earlier work had addressed difficulties, related to non-separability, with the minimization of some measures of the risk of extreme events in sequential decisions. In an extension of these results, it is shown how some non-separable measures of the risk of extreme events can be interpreted in terms of separable constituents of risk, thereby enabling a wider class of measures of the risk of extreme events to be handled in a straightforward manner in a decision tree. Also for extreme events, results are given to enable minimax- and Hurwicz-criterion analyses in decision trees. An example demonstrates the incorporation of different measures of the risk of extreme events in a multi-objective decision tree. Conceptual formulations for optimizing non-separable measures of the risk of extreme events are identified as an important area for future investigation

336

Measurement and mitigation of methane emissions from beef cattle in tropical grazing systems: a perspective from Australia and Brazil.  

Science.gov (United States)

The growing global demand for food of animal origin will be the incentive for countries such as Australia and Brazil to increase their beef production and international exports. This increased supply of beef is expected to occur primarily through on-farm productivity increases. The strategies for reducing resultant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions should be evaluated in the context of the production system and should encompass a broader analysis, which would include the emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) and carbon sequestration. This paper provides an insight into CH4 measurement techniques applicable to grazing environments and proposed mitigation strategies, with relevance to the production systems that are predominant in grazing systems of Australia and Brazil. Research and technology investment in both Australia and Brazil is aimed at developing measurement techniques and increasing the efficiency of cattle production by improving herd genetics, utilization of the seasonal feed-base and reducing the proportion of metabolizable energy lost as CH4. Concerted efforts in these areas can be expected to reduce the number of unproductive animals, reduce age at slaughter and inevitably reduce emission intensity (EI) from beef production systems. Improving efficiency of livestock production systems in tropical grazing systems for Australia and Brazil will be based on cultivated and existing native pastures and the use of additives and by-products from other agricultural sectors. This approach spares grain-based feed reserves typically used for human consumption, but potentially incurs a heavier EI than current intensive feeding systems. The determination of GHG emissions and the value of mitigation outcomes for entire beef production systems in the extensive grazing systems is complex and require a multidisciplinary approach. It is fortunate that governments in both Australia and Brazil are supporting ongoing research activities. Nevertheless, to achieve an outcome that feeds a growing population while reducing emissions on a global scale continues to be a monumental challenge for ruminant nutritionists. PMID:23739477

Berndt, A; Tomkins, N W

2013-06-01

337

The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the motivational density, to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion

338

On the Capital Allocation Problem for a New Coherent Risk Measure in Collective Risk Theory  

OpenAIRE

In this paper we introduce a new coherent cumulative risk measure on $\\mathcal{R}_L^p$, the space of c\\`adl\\`ag processes having Laplace transform. This new coherent risk measure turns out to be tractable enough within a class of models where the aggregate claims is driven by a spectrally positive L\\'evy process. Moreover, we study the problem of capital allocation in an insurance context and we show that the capital allocation problem for this risk measure has a unique solu...

Hirbod, Assa; Manuel, Morales; Hassan, Omidi Firouzi

2013-01-01

339

Central limit theorems for law-invariant coherent risk measures  

OpenAIRE

In this paper we study the asymptotic properties of the canonical plug-in estimates for law-invariant coherent risk measures. Under rather mild conditions not relying on the explicit representation of the risk measure under consideration, we first prove a central limit theorem for independent identically distributed data and then extend it to the case of weakly dependent ones. Finally, a number of illustrating examples is presented.

Belomestny, Denis; Kra?tschmer, Volker

2010-01-01

340

Alocação e mitigação dos riscos em parcerias público-privadas no Brasil / Asignación y mitigación de riesgos en la colaboración público-privada en Brasil / Allocating and mitigating risks in public-private partnerships in Brazil  

Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

Full Text Available O objetivo da pesquisa foi efetuar levantamento das condições referentes à distribuição de risco nas formalizações das parcerias público-privadas no Brasil, a partir do marco legal que instituiu tal forma de implantação de equipamentos sociais no Brasil. Foram avaliados, por pesquisa documental, com [...] o os fatores de riscos estão sendo alocados e distribuídos em 15 contratos celebrados, buscando determinar como são mitigados os riscos inerentes entre os parceiros públicos e privados. Os contratos apresentam definição expressiva dos riscos envolvidos e de sua responsabilidade pelos parceiros. As evidências sinalizaram que os parceiros privados têm absorvido, formalmente, a maioria dos fatores de riscos elencados; contudo, há expressas medidas de mitigação dos riscos atribuídos nos contratos ao parceiro privado, pela intervenção em última instância do ente público envolvido. Abstract in spanish The objective of the research was to survey conditions regarding risk sharing in public-private partnerships contracting in Brazil, from the legal framework establishment that allowed such social equipment deployment in Brazil. It was evaluated through documentary research how the risk factors are b [...] eing allocated and distributed in 15 contracts, seeking to determine how the risks are mitigated between the public and private partners. The contracts have expressive definition of the risks involved and their liability for the partners. The evidences indicated that private partners have formally absorbed most of the risk factors listed; however, there are express risks' mitigation measures granted in contracts to the private partner, by intervention in last instance of the public entity involved. Abstract in english El objetivo de la investigación fue inspeccionar las condiciones en cuanto a la distribución del riesgo en contrataciones por la colaboración público-privada en Brasil, desde que el marco legal estableció tal despliegue de equipamiento social en Brasil. Fueron evaluados, por investigación documental [...] , como los factores de riesgo están siendo asignados y distribuidos en 15 contratos, buscando determinar cómo se mitigan los riesgos entre los socios públicos y privados. Los contratos tienen expresiva definición de los riesgos y su responsabilidad definida para los socios. La evidencia indica que los socios privados formalmente han absorbido la mayoría de los factores de riesgo mencionados; Sin embargo, hay medidas de mitigación de riesgo expreso otorgadas en contratos con el socio privado, por la intervención en última instancia de la entidad pública que se trate.

Carlos Marcio Campos, Lima; Antonio Carlos, Coelho.

2015-04-01

341

Comprehensive assessments of measures mitigating heat island phenomena in urban areas; Heat shinku wo riyoshita daikibo reibo system no kaihatsu  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper describes actual condition and measures against heat island (HI) phenomena in large urban areas with buildings. Tokyo was selected as a model. To extract typical pattern of daily change of air temperature, statistic analysis was conducted using the existing air temperature data at 100 points in and near the city of Tokyo. As a result, five patterns were obtained, i.e., central city, sea/land water affecting zone, thickly settled suburbs, garden city, and countryside. Each one point was selected in each pattern, to measure the underground temperature. It was found that the effect of HI can be easily evaluated from the underground temperature. It was suggested that the HI effect in the central city is estimated to be around 3.6 {degree}C. The measures mitigating HI were divided into the thermal balance improvement in the whole district and the temperature improvement of living space by homogenization or inhomogenization. Energy conservation was investigated for improving the thermal balance which can be practically conducted. According to the measures, it was found that the air temperature in the central city can be decreased by about 0.5 {degree}C at maximum. 3 figs., 1 tab.

Ishitani, H.; Yamada, K.; Yamaji, K.; Matsuhashi, T.; Iizuka, E.; Suzuki, T.; Genchi, H.; Komiyama, H. [The University of Tokyo, Tokyo (Japan)

1997-02-01

342

Mitigating Case Mix Factors by Choice of Glycemic Control Performance Measure Threshold  

OpenAIRE

OBJECTIVE—Performance measures are tools for assessing quality of care but may be influenced by patient factors. We investigated how currently endorsed performance measures for glycemic control in diabetes may be influenced by case mix composition. We assessed differences in A1C performance measure threshold attainment by case mix factors for A1C >9% and examined how lowering the threshold to A1C >8% or >7% changed these differences.

Bainbridge, Kathleen E.; Cowie, Catherine C.; Rust, Keith F.; Fradkin, Judith E.

2008-01-01

343

Prediction and Mitigation of the Effects of Catastrophic Fire on Water Supplies: Science for Risk Reduction and Planning for Future Scenarios  

Science.gov (United States)

Precipitation falling on forests and grasslands provides much of the water to communities across the United States. The U.S. Forest Service estimates that over 3,400 communities are served by water draining land under its jurisdiction alone. Much of this land is subject to wildland fires, which have been increasing in size and severity in the western United States in response to climatic forcing and increased ignitions from human sources. Runoff from burned landscapes can present a significant risk to municipal and agricultural water supplies from ash, sediment, contaminants from burned structures, and fire-fighting chemicals. Several municipalities, including Denver, Colorado, have experienced both short-term and long-term degradation of their water supplies in the aftermath of fires in watersheds upstream from drinking water reservoirs. Scientific efforts to predict and mitigate the effects of catastrophic fire on water supplies have focused on three areas. The first consists of data collection and carefully designed experiments to understand the change of the hydrologic behavior of burned watersheds in response to rain with different intensities, durations, and trajectories as the watersheds recover. Results from these studies are used to validate models that predict watershed response under different initial conditions constrained by remotely-sensed burn severity, topography, rainfall-intensity recurrence probabilities and other factors. These predictions are the basis for rehabilitation measures applied to the landscape to minimize post-fire runoff and erosion. Efforts are under way to incorporate the chemical effects of ash and fire-fighting compounds in decision-support tools. A second area of scientific focus is the characterization of the chemical and physical properties of ash from wildland fire, including ash from structures consumed by fire. The ash chemistry is correlated to remotely- sensed data, type of vegetation that burned, and the underlying geology. Ash affects the hydraulic properties and behavior of soils in burned watersheds while it still mantles the hillslopes, but it is easily delivered to water bodies by rain and wind as a flush of material that affects water chemistry and properties like turbidity and temperature. A third thrust is to identify watersheds that are critical to the function of municipal water supplies and infrastructure to determine their vulnerability to fire and post-fire effects. This information can be used to prioritize areas for fuel treatments or land management practices to minimize the probability of high severity fire and hence the effects of post-fire runoff. Scientific studies are providing crucial information about such topics as changes in soil erodibility, infiltration and runoff after fire, and the effects of vegetation recovery. Even in watersheds where land management actions are limited by topography or land use designation, such as wilderness areas, knowledge of the potential response of burned areas allows water providers to develop rapid-response and long-term plans based on scientific data and tools. Some climate change models are predicting hotter, drier temperatures in certain areas of the United States and a higher probability of larger, more severe wildfires. These predictions have a direct bearing on the potential risk of impairment of water supplies by post-fire runoff and erosion. In an era when water availability and quality are of utmost importance, careful scientific studies focused on the effects of wildland fire on water supplies will continue to inform public policy and decision making on topics of vulnerability and risk reduction.

Martin, D. A.; Tindall, J.

2008-12-01

344

Risk Management Plan; TOPICAL  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The purpose of this Risk Management Plan (RMP) is to establish the concept and define the process to assure that National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Operations Office Environmental Management (NNSA/NV EM) programs and projects incorporate appropriate, efficient, cost-effective measures to mitigate the impact of program-and/or project-related risks. In addition, it describes the roles and responsibilities of program personnel in performing the risk management functions, and defines reporting and tracking requirements for risk-related information. The product of this risk analysis will be a risk analysis report listing the various risks with their classification, mitigation and handling strategies, impact on cost and schedule, and action items. The risk management process will identify potential risk sources; assess individual risks and impacts on performance, cost, and schedule; evaluate alternative approaches to mitigate high and moderate risks; develop action plans to handle individual risks; and interface risks with other programs and/or projects. Risk management and risk assessment will be consistent with DOE Orders 430.1 and 413.3 and their associated guidance documentation. The RMP will remain valid for the life cycle of the program and/or projects and will be under configuration control with revisions to be conducted as required and approved

345

Two measures of risk importance and their application  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Risk importance measures are developed to quantify the worths of design features and human actions in both controlling and reducing risk. The quantification of worths can be used to help focus and prioritize efforts in backfitting programs, reliability assurance programs, inspection programs, and general risk management programs. The risk importance measures described are straightforward mathematically and have a natural physical interpretation. As a demonstration of their utility, the measures are applied to the probabilistic risk analyses (PRA) performed in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Reactor Safety Study Methodology Applications Program. The results greatly enhance the information provided by the PRA and show extremely intereting behaviors. Within a plant and across plants, worths vary by orders of magnitude. Systems, components, and human actions that are important in reducing risk are not necessarily those that are important in controlling or assuring risk. The worths are graphically portrayed to more effectively communicate the messages to managers and decisionmakers. The applications indicate that the described importance evaluations should be an intimate part of any PRA

346

Risk Management  

Science.gov (United States)

This presentation focuses on the identification of risk management, risk management processes such as: quantification and prioritization; mitigation planning; implementation of risk reduction; and tracking process. It develops examples and answers questions about Risk Management.

Thomas, Lloyd

1998-01-01

347

Feasibility of Portfolio Optimization under Coherent Risk Measures  

CERN Document Server

It is shown that the axioms for coherent risk measures imply that whenever there is an asset in a portfolio that dominates the others in a given sample (which happens with finite probability even for large samples), then this portfolio cannot be optimized under any coherent measure on that sample, and the risk measure diverges to minus infinity. This instability was first discovered on the special example of Expected Shortfall which is used here both as an illustration and as a prompt for generalization.

Kondor, Imre

2008-01-01

348

Noise sensitivity of portfolio selection under various risk measures  

CERN Document Server

We study the sensitivity to estimation error of portfolios optimized under various risk measures, including variance, absolute deviation, expected shortfall and maximal loss. We introduce a measure of portfolio sensitivity and test the various risk measures by considering simulated portfolios of varying sizes N and for different lengths T of the time series. We find that the effect of noise is very strong in all the investigated cases, asymptotically it only depends on the ratio N/T, and diverges at a critical value of N/T, that depends on the risk measure in question. This divergence is the manifestation of a phase transition, analogous to the algorithmic phase transitions recently discovered in a number of hard computational problems. The transition is accompanied by a number of critical phenomena, including the divergent sample to sample fluctuations of portfolio weights. While the optimization under variance and mean absolute deviation is always feasible below the critical value of N/T, expected shortfall...

Kondor, I; Nagy, G; Kondor, Imre; Pafka, Szilard; Nagy, Gabor

2006-01-01

349

An Interaction Model for Simulation and Mitigation of Cascading Failures  

CERN Document Server

Cascading failures triggered by trivial initial events are encountered in many complex systems. It is actually not any specific reason but the interaction between components of the system that causes cascading failures. Based on this idea interactions between components are quantified and the interaction matrix and interaction network are obtained. By using the quantified interactions, key links and key components that play important roles in the propagation of cascading failures are identified. An interaction model is also proposed to simulate cascading failures by using the interactions and to study the influence of these interactions on the cascading failure risk. Interaction-based mitigation measures are suggested to mitigate the cascading failure risk by eliminating a small number of key links, which can be achieved in real systems by wide area protection such as blocking of some specific protective relays. The proposed interaction quantifying method, cascading failure model, and mitigation measures are ...

Qi, Junjian; Mei, Shengwei

2014-01-01

350

REIMR - A Process for Utilizing Liquid Rocket Propulsion-Oriented 'Lessons Learned' to Mitigate Development Risk in Nuclear Thermal Propulsion  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper is a summary overview of a study conducted at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA-MSFC) during the initial phases of the Space Launch Initiative (SLI) program to evaluate a large number of technical problems associated with the design, development, test, evaluation and operation of several major liquid propellant rocket engine systems (i.e., SSME, Fastrac, J-2, F-1). One of the primary results of this study was the identification of the 'Fundamental Root Causes' that enabled the technical problems to manifest, and practices that can be implemented to prevent them from recurring in future propulsion system development efforts, such as that which is currently envisioned in the field of nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP). This paper will discus the Fundamental Root Causes, cite some examples of how the technical problems arose from them, and provide a discussion of how they can be mitigated or avoided in the development of an NTP system

351

Soil erosion and mitigation measures on rented and owned fields in Uruguay: the impact of transgenic soya and foreign investors  

Science.gov (United States)

Governments, companies and individuals with financial capital to invest, are worldwide buying or renting land in developing or third world countries. Uruguay is a developing country whose economy is mainly based on agriculture. Since 2000 many foreigners started to invest in the Uruguayan agricultural sector and to practice intensive large-scale agriculture. The significant presence of foreigners in the country is proven by the fact that almost 360 000 ha out of the 500 000 ha forming the study area were managed by foreigners in 2012. Nowadays farmers have abandoned the traditional crop rotation plan that included pasture to produce grain for export, and transgenic soya (soya RR) became the main crop planted by both foreigners and locals. Besides the high soil erosion rates related to having soya as main crop, planting soya implies the use of glyphosate, a broad-spectrum systemic herbicide leading to important environmental impacts. It is commonly said that foreigners investing in poor countries are exploiting the local natural resources aiming to get the highest possible profit from them. Is this a valid assumption in Uruguay? The purpose of this study was to compare the land management style of foreign and local farmers and to relate it to the soil erosion occurring in the study area. The land tenure (rented or owned fields) and the type of farmer interviewed ("individual farmer" equivalent to L.L.C. or "anonymous society" equivalent to P.L.C.) were taken into consideration during the analysis. Based on what stated by the farmers interviewed, the soil erosion simulations considered the seven most popular crop rotation plans on rented and owned fields, three ideals crop rotation plans, the application of no mitigation measures, and the construction of terraces and conservation buffers. Depending on the crop rotation plan, soils characterized by slope gradients higher than 2 resulted in soil erosion rates higher than the 7 ton/ha/year allowed by law. The highest soil erosion rates corresponded to crop rotation plans having high percentage of soybeans and low percentages of sorghum and/or maize. In addition, the soil erosion rate was even higher when only one crop, especially soybeans, was planted during an agricultural year. Although there were not significant differences in the land management style between foreign and local farmers, the land management style significantly differed between L.L.C. and P.L.C., and between owned and rented fields. Compared to L.L.C., P.L.C. applied more soil erosion mitigation measures on both rented and owned fields and invested in research. Owned fields resulted to be better managed than rented fields in which soil erosion mitigation measures were taken only in presence of an agreement with the landlord. Indeed, although the construction of terraces having a distance of 30-50 m significantly reduced the soil erosion rate, those were mainly built on owned fields.

Caon, Lucrezia; Kessler, Aad; Keesstra, Saskia; Cruze, Rick

2014-05-01

352

Evaluation of environmental impacts caused by hydroelectric power plants in native forest areas and mitigation measures  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The following work has the intention of demonstrating the importance of native forest to the human life, not only through its inherent qualities as something to preserve, but also as a source of great resources, and in particular hydroelectric resource that, by today's necessities are bounded to be explored. The negative effects caused by the implementation of a hydroelectric plant are shown together with the necessity of adoption of measures that would soften the environment impact of it. For the adoption of those measures, many forest studies were proposed in the search for its complete characterization. Each of these studies are duly defined and presented in their general and specific goals. The most adequate methodology is finally recommended. (author). 14 refs

353

Flood and rockslide mitigative measures for the concrete sections of the Daisy Lake Dam  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Studies conducted under British Columbia Hydro's dam safety program during the early 1980s indicated that dam sections of the Daisy Lake Dam would be overtopped by the probable maximum flood (PMF) and by a postulated slide generated wave (SGW). It was considered that the overtopping by either of the events could cause several sections of the concrete dam to fall, thereby resulting in uncontrolled release of the reservoir. The criteria used for determining foundation strength parameters, static and SGW induced water pressures, effective uplift and the appropriate factors of safety are discussed. The results of the analyses for the original dam sections and the design and implementation of the selected remedial measures are also described. These measures included lowering the Wing Dam and Saddle Dam by about 2 m to increase the spillway capacity and the installation of 43 post-tensioned anchors in the various sections of the main concrete and Wing dams. 9 refs., 8 figs., 3 tabs

354

Conditional risk measure modeling for Latvian insurance companies  

OpenAIRE

Due to the current economical situation on the Latvian market insurance companies are forced to consider other possibilities of income generation. One of such opportunities could be seen in cash flows from investment operations, while managing stocks' portfolios. The process of portfolio management is tightly connected with adequate risk management. In the current paper we have used copula approach for estimating portfolio’s conditional risk measures and though to contribute to the discussi...

Irina Voronova; Gaida Pettere; Jekaterina Kuzmina

2009-01-01

355

Key Escrow Attack Risk and Preventive Measures  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Cryptographic technology is always a highly sensitive dual-use technology. All nations have to face a dilemma in terms of password usage: on the one hand, to fully guarantee the safety and confidentiality of personal communication, as well as personal privacy and communication freedom required by law; on the other hand, to make sure law-enforcing departments and security organs crack down and prevent crime. It might be a great help for crime and terrorist organizations that the wide application of cryptography is made public. Many people believe that plain text communicated through the public network is accessible to an appropriate government agency if law permits. Therefore, it has become a continuous hot issue of cryptographic technology that how to design a cryptographic system through which legal persons are able to protect the safety of their information, yet being monitored by government in the range permitted by law. In this study, an in-depth study is carried out on the controversial key escrow technology, analyzing its composition and algorithm and pointing out possible attacks and preventive measures.

Qiang Fan

2012-08-01

356

Space collision threat mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

Mitigation of possible collision threats to current and future operations in space environments is an important an challenging task considering high nonlinearity of orbital dynamics and discrete measurement updates. Such discrete observations are relatively scarce with respect to space dynamics including possible unintentional or intentional rocket propulsion based maneuvers even in scenarios when measurement collections are focused to a one single target of interest. In our paper, this problem is addressed in terms of multihypothesis and multimodel estimation in conjunction with multi-agent multigoal game theoretic guaranteed evasion strategies. Collision threat estimation is formulated using conditional probabilities of time dependent hypotheses and spacecraft controls which are computed using Liapunov-like approach. Based on this formulation, time dependent functional forms of multi-objective utility functions are derived given threat collision risk levels. For demonstrating developed concepts, numerical methods are developed using nonlinear filtering methodology for updating hypothesis sets and corresponding conditional probabilities. Space platform associated sensor resources are managed using previously developed and demonstrated information-theoretic objective functions and optimization methods. Consequently, estimation and numerical methods are evaluated and demonstrated on a realistic Low Earth Orbit collision encounter.

Zatezalo, Aleksandar; Stipanovi?, Dušan; Mehra, Raman K.; Pham, Khanh

2014-06-01

357

Measuring risk, managing values: health technology and subjectivity in Denmark.  

Science.gov (United States)

Based on fieldwork among Danes with a diagnosed risk of type 2 diabetes or cardiovascular disease, this paper investigates how the technological possibilities of diagnosing and monitoring invisible risks shape understandings of health and form subjectivity. It focuses on the experiences of being diagnosed with a risk condition in the form of high blood pressure or elevated blood glucose and the ensuing use of measuring devices. It argues that measurements of these conditions can be seen as 'formative processes' that produce and maintain a view of health as something that can best be known through the use of medical technology. The numerical values such measurements yield are seen as true indicators of health, and doing something about risk conditions is felt to be a personal imperative. The formative processes illustrated in this paper are motivational and thought provoking. The informants do not experience new symptoms after being diagnosed; rather they reflect upon their health in a new way and numbers become associated with personal responsibility and morality. However, because numbers influence subjective experiences, they can come to take up too much space in everyday life. Therefore, people have reservations about how often they should measure their values at home. The formative processes of being diagnosed with a risk condition are thus about subjectivity both in the sense of being subject to the demands of living with an illness and of being a subject who acts to keep life from being colonized by concerns about health. PMID:24761746

Andersen, Julie Høgsgaard; Whyte, Susan Reynolds

2014-12-01

358

Fuel consumption and life cycle GHG emissions by China’s on-road trucks: Future trends through 2050 and evaluation of mitigation measures  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

We established a bottom-up model to deliver the future trends of fuel consumption and life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by China's on-road trucks. The mitigation measures of mileage utilization rate (MUR) improvement, fuel consumption rate (FCR) improvement, and penetration of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fueled trucks were evaluated. With no mitigation measures implemented, in the year 2050, the total fuel consumption and life cycle GHG emissions by China's on-road trucks were projected to reach 498 million toe and 2125 million tons, respectively, approximately 5.2 times the level in 2010. If the MUR of trucks in China is increased from the current status as those of the developed countries, a 13% reduction of total fuel consumption can be achieved after 2020. If the FCR of trucks is reduced by 10% in 2011, 2016, 2021, and 2026, a 30% reduction of total fuel consumption can be achieved after 2030. Moreover, if the share of LNG fueled trucks in all newly registered semi-trailer towing trucks and heavy-duty trucks is increased to 20% in 2030, an estimate of 7.9% and 10.9% of the total diesel consumption by trucks will be replaced by LNG in 2030 and 2050, respectively. - Highlights: ? We establish a bottom–up model to deliver the fuel consumption and GHG emissions by China's trucks. ? Without mitigation measures, the truck fuel consumption in 2050 will be 5.2 times the level in 2010. ? Fuel conservation and GHG reduction effects of three mitigation measureffects of three mitigation measures were evaluated.

359

Development of Technology Readiness Level (TRL) Metrics and Risk Measures  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This is an internal project milestone report to document the CCSI Element 7 team's progress on developing Technology Readiness Level (TRL) metrics and risk measures. In this report, we provide a brief overview of the current technology readiness assessment research, document the development of technology readiness levels (TRLs) specific to carbon capture technologies, describe the risk measures and uncertainty quantification approaches used in our research, and conclude by discussing the next steps that the CCSI Task 7 team aims to accomplish.

Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Anderson, K. K.; Sivaramakrishnan, Chandrika; Lansing, Carina

2012-10-01

360

Comprehensive assessments of measures mitigating heat island phenomena in urban areas; Heat shinku wo riyoshita daikibo reibo system no kaihatsu  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper describes the assessment method of measures mitigating heat island phenomena in urban areas. The heat island phenomena were classified into meso-scale with 100 km-scale, block-scale with several km-scale, and building-scale with 100 m-scale. Urban thermal environment simulation model was developed in response to each scale. For the development, regional data using aircraft and artificial satellite observations, surface observation and thermal environment observation at Shinjuku new central city of Tokyo, and artificial waste heat actual survey data in the southern Kanto district were utilized. Results of the urban thermal environment simulation were introduced as an application of this model. Temperature distributions of the heat island in the Kanto district were simulated with considering urban conditions near Tokyo and without considering it. Daily changes of wall surfaces of high buildings and road surface were calculated. Increase in the air temperature in the back stream of building roofs with increased temperature was determined. 4 figs.

Mizuno, T.; Yamamoto, S.; Yoshikado, H.; Kondo, H.; Kaneho, N.; Saegusa, N.; Inaba, A. [National Institute for Resources and Environment, Tsukuba (Japan); Inoue, M. [New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization, Tokyo, (Japan)

1997-02-01

361

Preliminary data on a new opioid risk assessment measure: the Brief Risk Interview.  

Science.gov (United States)

Risk assessment and stratification have become a central issue in prescribing opioids to patients with chronic pain. Research to date on various risk screening measures has shown that a clinical interview by an experienced clinician offers superior predictive ability in identifying patients who are more likely to engage in future medication aberrant behavior. The current study represents a pilot study of an interview rating scale that is designed to replicate this clinical assessment. This study compares the predictions of medication aberrant behavior made by the Opioid Risk Tool, the Screener and Opioid Assessment for Patients with Pain-Revised, and the new interview rating scale, the Brief Risk Interview (BRI). A sample of 196 patients was assessed by each of the three risk measures and then follow-up data were gathered at 6 months post interview to determine which patients had engaged in medication aberrant behavior and had been discharged from the practice. The BRI shows superior predictive ability in identifying patients who later engage in medication aberrant behavior. Although more study in other settings is needed, these preliminary data suggest that the Brief Risk Interview could be a useful tool for any pain clinician in assessing risk through the use of information gathered in a brief interview. PMID:23709300

Jones, Ted; Moore, Todd

2013-01-01

362

Wood logging and surface runoff generation under central European conditions (mechanisms, mitigation measures)  

Science.gov (United States)

The effect of logging on hydrological processes has become one of the most discussed environmental problems in Slovakia since November 2004 when more than 12000 ha (more than 3 millions of trees) of the spruce forest in High Tatra Mt. were completely cut down by bora wind. The field measurements and mathematical simulations revealed that good-state forest vegetation can intercept 3-times more precipitation water than grass or herbs during the vegetation season (about. 40% of seasonal precipitation) in wind affected area. The immediate effect of forest vegetation during a single storm event however is very small and only small positive effect on floods can be expected when compared to other types of vegetation (grass, shrubs, herbs). The effects of wood logging in mountainous areas on water balance are similar to those of natural disasters (clear-cuts) or they can be further modified by building of forest roads, logging roads and other compacted surfaces. The irrigation experiments showed that majority (81%) of 100 mm artificial rain that fell on the logging road's surface during 3 hours did not infiltrate but flew downward the slope of the road. Moreover, logging roads accelerate and concentrate the surface runoff since they increase the drainage density of the basin (draining of upward slopes). Mathematical simulations on HYDRUS-2D model theoretically approved more than 50% contribution of logging roads to 400-year flood discharge in Píla village in June 7, 2011. Studies from the western part of USA report up to 30% contribution of forest roads to extreme flood discharges. The irrigation experiments showed that this asset can be reduced to 0% when a recultivation of unused logging roads by the mechanical loosening of their compacted surface is done.

Orfanus, T.

2012-04-01

363

Address to the international workshop on greenhouse gas mitigation, technologies and measures  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Netherlands has a long history in combatting natural forces for it`s mere survival and even creation. Around half of the country was not Yet existent around 2000 years ago: it was still below sea level that time. Building dikes and the discovery of eolic energy applied in windmills, allowing to pump water from one side of the dike to the other, are technologies that gradually shaped the country into its current form, a process that continues to materialize till the present day. Water has not always been an enemy of the country. In the Hundred Year War with Spain, during which the country was occupied territory for most of the time, the water was used to drive the Spanish armies from the country. As large parts are well below sea level breaking the dikes resulted in flooding the country which made the armoury of the Spanish army useless. In this way they had to give up the siege of several major Dutch cities that time. These events marked the gradual liberation of the Dutch territory. Consequently, in the discussion on adaption and prevention of the greenhouse effect the Netherlands has a clear stand. The greenhouse effect will occur anyway, even if countries deploy all possible counter measures at once. So their aim is to prevent the occurrence of the greenhouse effect to the highest extent possible, and to protect the most vulnerable areas meanwhile, especially the coastal zones. In order to reach these goals the Dutch government has established a Joint Implementation Experimental Programme in accordance with the provisions made by the Conference of Parties in Berlin (1995).

Kant, A.

1996-12-31

364

US Food and Drug Administration's Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy for extended-release and long-acting opioids: pros and cons, and a European perspective.  

Science.gov (United States)

Prescriptions for opioid analgesics to manage moderate-to-severe chronic non-cancer pain have increased markedly over the last decade. An unintentional consequence of greater prescription opioid utilization has been the parallel increase in misuse, abuse and overdose, which are serious risks associated with all opioid analgesics. In response to disturbing rises in prescription opioid abuse, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has proposed the implementation of aggressive Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS). While REMS could dramatically change the development, release, marketing and prescription of extended-release opioids, questions remain on how these programmes may influence prescribing practices, patient safety and ultimately patient access to these agents. The extent of the availability and misuse of prescription opioids in Europe is difficult to assess from the data currently available, due in large part to the considerable differences in prescribing patterns and regulations between countries. Balancing the availability of prescription opioids for those patients who have pain, while discouraging illicit use, is a complex challenge and requires effective efforts on many levels, particularly in Europe where policies are quite different between countries. PMID:23116252

Mercadante, Sebastiano; Craig, David; Giarratano, Antonello

2012-12-24

365

Proceedings of the Canadian Institute's 4. annual oil sands supply and infrastructure conference : maximizing opportunity and mitigating risks in a rapidly growing market  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This conference addressed the challenges facing oil sands development, with particular reference to supply and infrastructure issues. Updates on oil sands markets and opportunities were presented along with strategies for mitigating risks in a rapidly growing market. The best practices for supplying a demanding market through supply shortages and high prices were identified along with policies that should be implemented to help overcome labour shortages. Some presentations expressed how commodities pricing and trends can impact business. Others showed how markets in China and the United States are prepared for oilsands products. The views of other international companies on oil sands was also discussed along with proposed plans to eliminate the infrastructure congestion and risks caused by expanding oil sands development. The challenges and benefits of investing in Alberta's oil sands were reviewed along with strategies to enhance upgrading and refining capacity in the province. Economic drivers and the creation of new markets were examined, and various export opportunities were reviewed along with industry management challenges concerning human resources, labour supply, training and education. The conference featured 10 presentations, of which 3 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs

366

Study on the possibility of measurement of individual risk perception  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In industry, because of retirement of postwar baby-boom generation and decreasing labor accident by improvement in facilities, diminished worker's risk perception is concerned about. Although hazard prediction activity (KY: Kiken-Yochi) is carried out for improvement of workers' risk perception in sites, it is get into a rut not to estimate the effects of the activity. Then the purpose of this study is to examine the possibility of measuring and estimating individual inherent risk perception not depending on the experiences and knowledge, and to confirm the effects of the experiences and knowledge on one's risk perception. Eleven subjects were requested to detect the hazards and to estimate the results and the extents of damage in the three films (1: working at an office (all subjects had the experience), 2: feeding at the GS (gas station) (half of them had the experience), 3: overhauling a valve (no one had the experience)) that were included in some hazards. The rate of hazards detection and the accuracies of 5 categories, that were hazards, results, damage of human, damage of objects or facilities and coping, were calculated. The experience of feeding had effects on the rate of hazards detection and some of the accuracies at the film of feeding at the GS. Also, all of indices were significantly lower at the firm of overhauling a valve than the firm of working at an office. These results showed that the experiences and knowledge were affected on one's risk perceptioedge were affected on one's risk perception. Meanwhile, the similarity of the tendency to the rate of hazards detection and the accuracies between 2 firms except for the firm of feeding was found by means of the ordinal correlation. The result showed that it will be able to measure the individual inherent risk perception from the number of hazards detection and the depth of the context. The future issues are discussed for developing the method to evaluate the risk perception. (author)

367

High Spatial Resolution Thermal Remote Sensing of the Urban Heat Island Effect: Assessment of Risks to Human Health and Development of Mitigation Strategies for Sustainable Cities  

Science.gov (United States)

The growth of cities, both in population and in areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80% of the world's population will live in cities. One of the more egregious side effects of urbanization is the deterioration in air quality as a result of increased vehicular traffic, industrialization and related activities. In the United States alone, under the more stringent air quality guidelines established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1997, nearly 300 counties in 34 states will not meet the new air quality standards for ground level ozone. The mitigation of one the physical/environmental characteristics of urbanization known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect, is now being looked at more closely as a possible way to bring down ground level ozone levels in cities and assist states in improving air quality. The UHI results from the replacement of "natural" land covers (e.g., trees, grass) with urban land surface types, such as pavement and buildings. Heat stored in these surfaces is released into the air and results in a "dome" of elevated air temperatures that presides over cities. The effect of this dome of elevated air temperatures is known as the UHI, which is most prevalent about 2-3 hours after sunset on days with intense solar radiation and calm winds. Given the local and regional impacts of the UHI, there are significant potential affects on human health, particularly as related to heat stress and ozone on body temperature regulation and on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. In this study we are using airborne and satellite remote sensing data to analyze how differences in the urban landscape influence or drive the development of the UHI over four U.S. cities. Additionally, we are assessing what the potential impact is on risks to human health, and developing mitigation strategies to make urban areas more environmentally sustainable.

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Rickman, Douglas L.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Laymon, Charles A.; Crosson, William; Howell, Burgess F.; Gillani, Noor V.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

368

Remote Sensing of the Urban Heat Island Effect: Assessment of Risks to Human Health and Development of Mitigation Strategies for Sustainable Cities  

Science.gov (United States)

The growth of cities, both in population and in areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80% of the world's population will live in cities. One of the more egregious side effects of urbanization is the deterioration in air quality as a result of increased vehicular traffic, industrialization and related activities. In the United States alone, under the more stringent air quality guidelines established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1997, nearly 300 counties in 34 states will not meet the new air quality standards for ground level ozone. The mitigation of one the physical/environmental characteristics of urbanization known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect, is now being looked at more closely as a possible way to bring down ground level ozone levels in cities and assist states in improving air quality. The UHI results from the replacement of "natural" land covers (e.g., trees, grass) with urban land surface types, such as pavement and buildings. Heat stored in these surfaces is released into the air and results in a "dome" of elevated air temperatures that presides over cities. The effect of this dome of elevated air temperatures is known as the UHI, which is most prevalent about 2-3 hours after sunset on days with intense solar radiation and calm winds. Given the local and regional impacts of the UHI, there are significant potential affects on human health, particularly as related to heat stress and ozone on body temperature regulation and on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. In this study we are using airborne and satellite remote sensing data to analyze how differences in the urban landscape influence or drive the development of the UHI over four U.S. cities. Additionally, we are assessing what the potential impact is on risks to human health, and developing mitigation strategies to make urban areas more environmentally sustainable.

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Rickman, Douglas L.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Laymon, Charles A.; Crosson, William; Howell, Burgess F.; Gillani, Noor V.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

369

Application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to mitigate operating and maintenance cost increases for nuclear power plants  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Operating nuclear power generation facilities face increased pressure from state utility commissions to improve the cost effectiveness of operations and maintenance programs. Some costs are not allowed for inclusion in the current rate base and represent an operating loss to the utility. State regulators seem more willing to use operating and maintenance cost comparisons of competing technologies, such as existing fossil and cogeneration facilities. In contrast to these pressures are the requirements applied by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to improve the ''quality'' of operations. The NRC, as a regulator, sometimes uses conflicting parameters to judge the effectiveness of operations, and often issues regulations that significantly impact operating costs. As Individual Plant Examinations (IPEs) are completed and submitted to the NRC for review, numerous additional opportunities exist for application of PRA methodology and plant specific results to address the risk impact of recent regulations. Quadrex Corporation is currently performing research for the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) to investigate the application of risk analysis to improve the cost effectiveness of operations and maintenance programs for nuclear plants. The project is being performed with the cooperation of two participating utilities. The focus of the investigation is the use of the plant specific risk analysis to improve the cost effectiveness of efforts associated with utility respos of efforts associated with utility response to NRC Generic Letter 89-10; a program that can significantly increase the requirements for motor-operated valve testing and surveillance programs

370

Measuring the risk of an Iranian banking system using Value at Risk (VaR Model  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Measuring risk of financial institutes and banks plays an important role on managing them. Recent financial turmoil in United States banking system has motivated banking industry to monitor risk factors more closely. In this paper, we present an empirical study to measure the risk of some private banks in Iran called Bank Mellat using Value at Risk (VaR method. The proposed study collects the necessary information for the fiscal year of 2010 and analyses them using regression analysis. The study divides the financial data into two groups where the financial data of the first half of year is considered in the first group and the remaining information for the second half of year 2010 is considered in the second group. The implementation of VaR method indicates that financial risks increase during the time horizon. The study also uses linear regression method where independent variable is time, dependent variable is the financial risk, and the results confirm what we have found in the previous part of the survey.

Sudabeh Morshedian Rafiee

2012-10-01

371

Hydrogen hazard and mitigation analysis in PWR containment  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Highlights: • Reactor severe accident due to hydrogen risk. • Hydrogen explosion in PWR containment. • Mitigation of hydrogen risk with the implantation of recombiners. • Regulatory requirement considerations. - Abstract: This paper describes the analytical results for the estimation of hydrogen concentration in the containment atmosphere based on zirconium oxidation reaction following a severe accident. The analysis provides useful information about the potential challenge of local hydrogen accumulation in the containment, which may be used to reduce the hydrogen detonation risk and to design the capacity and arrangements of mitigation measures. The containment analysis has been performed using computer code COGAP which uses the scenario of loss of coolant accident. The behavior of pressure and hydrogen concentrations in containment as a function of time under the severe accident condition is presented in graphical form. The mitigation measures (recombiners) are essential to maintain containment atmosphere in the safe stable conditions. A hydrogen control system is to mitigate the hydrogen risk by comparing results from a reference accident sequence with and without recombiners. This comparison show that combustible gas occur in few local areas in the containment for a limited time span and hydrogen concentration is reduced significantly with the use of recombiners

372

MEASURING RISK PROFILE WITH A MULTIDIMENSIONAL RASCH ANALYSIS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In this paper we propose an evaluation of investors’ risk profiles such as to meet the minimal requirements that Italian financial institutions must satisfy by law (d. lgs. 164, 2007. Thus we investigate all aspects specific to so-called risk profiles: an investor’s knowledge and his financial experience (concerning financial instruments and their use; financial objectives, a personal predisposition to risk /earn and the temporal horizon. The methodology used in financial literature with regard to risk profiles is essentially based on simplistic statistical analyses that often fail to consider possible psychological aspects. In order to account for investor preferences and psychological attitudes, we suggest to use an item response theory model. We first assume a unidimensional model, belonging to the family of Rasch models and then, as an alternative approach, a Generalized Multidimensional Rasch model. In particular, the objective is to assess the value of a questionnaire whose items describe different characteristics of the main latent variable risk profile. Under the assumption of a multidimensional measurement model, given the multivariate position of each investor with respect to identified latent traits we can represent his position with respect to possible investments proposed by a bank and we can identify different situations that respect the investor’s risk profile and best characterize typical investor choices.

Valeria CAVIEZEL

2011-12-01

373

Environmental benefits and risks of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI) for in situ remediation: Risk mitigation or trade-off?  

Science.gov (United States)

The use of nanoscaled zero-valent iron particles (nZVI) to remediate contaminated soil and groundwater has received increasing amounts of attention within the last decade, primarily due to its potential for broader application, higher reactivity, and cost-effectiveness compared to conventional zero-valent iron applications and other in situ methods. However, the potential environmental risks of nZVI in in situ field scale applications are largely unknown at the present and traditional environmental risk assessment approaches are not yet able to be completed. Therefore, it may not yet be fully clear how to consider the environmental benefits and risks of nZVI for in situ applications. This analysis therefore addresses the challenges of comprehensively considering and weighing the expected environmental benefits and potential risks of this emerging environmentally-beneficial nanotechnology, particularly relevant for environmental engineers, scientists, and decision makers. We find that most of the benefits of using nZVI are based on near-term considerations, and large data gaps currently exist within almost all aspects of environmental exposure and effect assessments. We also find that while a wide range of decision support tools and frameworks alternative to risk assessment are currently available, a thorough evaluation of these should be undertaken in the near future to assess their full relevancy for nZVI at specific sites. Due to the absence of data in environmental risk evaluations, we apply a 'best' and 'worst' case scenario evaluation as a first step to qualitatively evaluate the current state-of-knowledge regarding the potential environmental risks of nZVI. The result of this preliminary qualitative evaluation indicates that at present, there are no significant grounds on which to form the basis that nZVI currently poses a significant, apparent risk to the environment, although the majority of the most serious criteria (i.e. potential for persistency, bioaccumulation, toxicity) are generally unknown. We recommend that in cases where nZVI may be chosen as the 'best' treatment option, short and long-term environmental monitoring is actively employed at these sites. We furthermore recommend the continued development of responsible nZVI innovation and better facilitated information exchange between nZVI developers, nano-risk researchers, remediation industry, and decision makers.

Grieger, Khara D.; Fjordbøge, Annika; Hartmann, Nanna B.; Eriksson, Eva; Bjerg, Poul L.; Baun, Anders

2010-11-01

374

VAR Methodology Used for Exchange Risk Measurement and Prevention  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In this article we discuss one of the modern risk measuring techniques Value-at-Risk (VaR. Currently central banks in major money centers, under the auspices of the BIS Basle Committee, adopt the VaR system to evaluate the market risk of their supervised banks. Banks regulators ask all commercial banks to report VaRs with their internal models. Value at risk (VaR is a powerful tool for assessing market risk, but it also imposes a challenge. Its power is its generality. Unlike market risk metrics such as the Greeks, duration and convexity, or beta, which are applicable to only certain asset categories or certain sources of market risk, VaR is general. It is based on the probability distribution for a portfolio’s market value. Value at Risk (VAR calculates the maximum loss expected (or worst case scenario on an investment, over a given time period and given a specified degree of confidence. There are three methods by which VaR can be calculated: the historical simulation, the variance-covariance method and the Monte Carlo simulation. The variance-covariance method is easiest because you need to estimate only two factors: average return and standard deviation. However, it assumes returns are well-behaved according to the symmetrical normal curve and that historical patterns will repeat into the future. The historical simulation improves on the accuracy of the VAR calculation, but requires more computational data; it also assumes that “past is prologue”. The Monte Carlo simulation is complex, but has the advantage of allowing users to tailor ideas about future patterns that depart from historical patterns.

Florentina Balu

2006-05-01

375

Indoor radon mitigation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The action limit for indoor radon concentration in Finnish dwellings is 400 Bq/m3 which is exceeded in 50.000 dwellings. In these dwellings indoor radon mitigation is needed. The most important reason for high concentration is the soil air with high radon concentrations that flows into living spaces through openings and gaps in the building foundation. Slab on-ground is the most prevalent type of foundation in Finnish single family houses. Without preventive measures, this type of foundation promotes the flow of radon-bearing soil air into living spaces. In the second popular foundation type, hill-side houses, the flow of soil air through the walls backing soil still increases radon leakages. The key aim of indoor radon mitigation is to prevent or decrease the harmful flows of radon-bearing