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1

Risk Mitigation Measures: An Important Aspect of the Environmental Risk Assessment of Pharmaceuticals  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Within EU marketing authorization procedures of human and veterinary medicinal products (HMP and VMP, an environmental risk assessment (ERA has to be performed. In the event that an unacceptable environmental risk is identified, risk mitigation measures (RMM shall be applied in order to reduce environmental exposure to the pharmaceutical. Within the authorization procedures of HMP, no RMM have been applied so far, except for specific precautions for the disposal of the unused medicinal product or waste materials. For VMP, a limited number of RMM do exist. The aim of this study was to develop consistent and efficient RMM. Therefore, existing RMM were compiled from a summary of product characteristics of authorized pharmaceuticals, and new RMM were developed and evaluated. Based on the results, appropriate RMM were applied within the authorization procedures of medicinal products. For HMP, except for the existing precautions for disposal, no further reasonable measures could be developed. For VMP, two specific precautions for disposal and 17 specific precautions for use in animals were proposed as RMM.

Markus Liebig

2014-01-01

2

Sensitivity measures for optimal mitigation of risk and reduction of model uncertainty  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper presents a new set of reliability sensitivity measures. The purpose is to identify the optimal manner in which to mitigate risk to civil infrastructure, and reduce model uncertainty in order to improve risk estimates. Three measures are presented. One identifies the infrastructure components that should be prioritized for retrofit. Another measure identifies the infrastructure that should be prioritized for more refined modeling. The third measure identifies the models that should be prioritized in research to improve models, for example by gathering new data. The developments are presented in the context of a region with 622 buildings that are subjected to seismicity from several sources. A comprehensive seismic risk analysis of this region is conducted, with over 300 random variables, 30 model types, and 4000 model instances. All models are probabilistic and emphasis is placed on the explicit characterization of epistemic uncertainty. For the considered region, the buildings that should first be retrofitted are found to be pre-code unreinforced masonry buildings. Conversely, concrete shear wall buildings rank highest on the list of buildings that should be subjected to more detailed modeling. The ground shaking intensity model for shallow crustal earthquakes and the concrete shear wall structural response model rank highest on the list of models that should be prioritized by research to improve engineering analysis models. -- Highlights: • Three new sensitivity measures are presented to guide the allocation of resources. • The first measure prioritizes infrastructure for retrofit in order to mitigate risk. • The second measure prioritizes probabilistic models for more detailed modeling. • The third measure prioritizes model types for improvement by data gathering. • The measures are showcased by a regional seismic risk analysis of 622 buildings

2013-09-01

3

A methodological frame for assessing benzene induced leukemia risk mitigation due to policy measures.  

Science.gov (United States)

The study relies on the development of a methodology for assessing the determinants that comprise the overall leukemia risk due to benzene exposure and how these are affected by outdoor and indoor air quality regulation. An integrated modeling environment was constructed comprising traffic emissions, dispersion models, human exposure models and a coupled internal dose/biology-based dose-response risk assessment model, in order to assess the benzene imposed leukemia risk, as much as the impact of traffic fleet renewal and smoking banning to these levels. Regarding traffic fleet renewal, several "what if" scenarios were tested. The detailed full-chain methodology was applied in a South-Eastern European urban setting in Greece and a limited version of the methodology in Helsinki. Non-smoking population runs an average risk equal to 4.1·10(-5) compared to 23.4·10(-5) for smokers. The estimated lifetime risk for the examined occupational groups was higher than the one estimated for the general public by 10-20%. Active smoking constitutes a dominant parameter for benzene-attributable leukemia risk, much stronger than any related activity, occupational or not. From the assessment of mitigation policies it was found that the associated leukemia risk in the optimum traffic fleet scenario could be reduced by up to 85% for non-smokers and up to 8% for smokers. On the contrary, smoking banning provided smaller gains for (7% for non-smokers, 1% for smokers), while for Helsinki, smoking policies were found to be more efficient than traffic fleet renewal. The methodology proposed above provides a general framework for assessing aggregated exposure and the consequent leukemia risk from benzene (incorporating mechanistic data), capturing exposure and internal dosimetry dynamics, translating changes in exposure determinants to actual changes in population risk, providing a valuable tool for risk management evaluation and consequently to policy support. PMID:23220388

Karakitsios, Spyros P; Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis ?; Gotti, Alberto; Kassomenos, Pavlos A; Pilidis, Georgios A

2013-01-15

4

Risk mitigation measures for diffuse pesticide entry into aquatic ecosystems: proposal of a guide to identify appropriate measures on a catchment scale.  

Science.gov (United States)

Measures to mitigate the risk of pesticide entry into aquatic ecosystems are becoming increasingly more important in the management of hot spots of pesticide transfer; such management, for example, is required by the European Union's directive for the sustainable use of pesticides (2009/128/EC). Measures beyond those currently stipulated for pesticide product authorization may be needed. A concise compilation of the appropriate measures for users (that are primarily farmers but also, e.g., regulators and farm extension services) and a guide for practically identifying these measures at the catchment scale is currently not available. Therefore, a proposal was developed for a guide focusing on the most important diffuse entry pathways (spray drift and runoff). Based on a survey of exposure-relevant landscape parameters (i.e., the riparian buffer strip width, riparian vegetation type, density of ground vegetation cover, coverage of the water body with aquatic macrophytes, field slope, and existence of concentrated flow paths), a set of risk mitigation measures focusing on the specific situation of pollution of a water body catchment can be identified. The user can then choose risk mitigation measures to implement, assisted by evaluations of their efficiency in reducing pesticide entry, feasibility, and expected acceptability to farmers. Currently, 12 landscape-related measures and 6 application-related measures are included. The present guide presents a step toward the practical implementation of risk mitigation measures for reducing pesticide entry in aquatic ecosystems. PMID:24431010

Bereswill, Renja; Streloke, Martin; Schulz, Ralf

2014-04-01

5

Numerical analysis of hydrogen risk mitigation measures for support of ITER licensing  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

In the ITER wet bypass scenario, water leakage, air ingress and hot dust (Be, W, and C) in the vacuum vessel could generate combustible hydrogen-air-steam mixture. Hydrogen combustion may threaten the integrity of the ITER VV and lead to radioactivity release. To prevent hydrogen energetic combustion, nitrogen injection system in VV and hydrogen recombination system in the pressure suppression tank (ST) were proposed. The main objectives of this analysis are to study the distribution of hydrogen-air-steam mixtures in the ITER sub-volumes, to investigate the feasibility of the nitrogen injection system to fully inert the atmosphere in the VV and to evaluate the capability and efficiency of the hydrogen recombination system to remove hydrogen in the ST. 3D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code GASFLOW was used to calculate the evolution of the mixtures and to evaluate the hydrogen combustion risks in the ITER sub-volumes. The results indicate that the proposed hydrogen risk mitigation systems will generally prevent the risks of hydrogen detonation and fast deflagration. However, the atmosphere in ITER sub-volumes cannot be completely inerted at the early stage of the scenario. Slow deflagrations could still generate quasi-static pressures above 1 bar in the VV. The structural impact of the thermal and pressure loads generated by hydrogen combustions will be investigated in future studies.

Xiao, J. [Institute of Nuclear Energy and Technologies, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 3640, 76021 Karlsruhe (Germany)], E-mail: jianjun.xiao@kit.edu; Travis, J.R. [Dubois, Pitzer, Travis GmbH, Offenbach (Germany); Breitung, W.; Jordan, T. [Institute of Nuclear Energy and Technologies, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 3640, 76021 Karlsruhe (Germany)

2010-04-15

6

Using acoustic monitoring to measure and mitigate the risk of bat-collisions at wind turbines in Central Europe  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Full text: We developed a 'bat-friendly' operational algorithm for wind turbines that trades off the reduction in collision risk against the loss in revenue resulting from mitigation. The algorithm was based on acoustic bat activity data from continuous sampling at the nacelle of 70 randomly selected wind turbines in 35 facilities in five different habitat types in Germany from May to October 2008. Additionally, the area under 30 of these turbines was searched for animal fatalities each day between July and September. First, we used a mixture model to relate acoustic bat activity to the number of fatalities found and to estimate the actual collision risk. Next, acoustic bat activity was modelled from the month, time of night, wind speed, temperature, and precipitation. Finally, using both models the collision risk was estimated from weather and temporal measurements alone and integrated in 'bat-friendly' operational algorithms. The number of bat fatalities found was highly correlated with the acoustic activity measured during the previous night. An estimated mean number of 6.0 bats per turbine had been killed during a period of 92 days from July to September. In most circumstances, to quantify the collision risk of bats at wind turbines from acoustic sampling will probably allow for a lower cost and higher precision of fatality numbers than conventional methods. During times of high collision risk, rotors may be stopped to avoid fatalities. For different mitigation scenarios (varying in the number of bats being killed and the parameters used to predict activity), we calculated the resulting loss in energy production and the reduction in bat mortality. For our data-set, the median loss of energy was significantly lower than 1 % of the yearly revenue for a threshold of two bats killed per year during 138 days from mid June to end of October. (Author)

Behr, Oliver; Brinkman, Robert; Korner-Nievergelt, Fraenzi; Niermann, Ivo

2011-07-01

7

Landslides risk mitigation along lifelines  

Science.gov (United States)

The paper describes an integrated, innovative and efficient solution to manage risk issues associated to landslides interfering with infrastructures. The research project was submitted for financial support in the framework of the Multi -regional Operational Programme 2007-13: Research and Competitiveness funded by the Ministry of Research (MIUR) and co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund. The project is aimed to developing and demonstrating an integrated system of monitoring, early warning and mitigation of landslides risk. The final goal is to timely identify potentially dangerous landslides, and to activate all needed impact mitigation measures, including the information delivery. The essential components of the system include monitoring arrays, telecommunication networks and scenario simulation models, assisted by a data acquisition and processing centre, and a traffic control centres. Upon integration, the system will be experimentally validated and demonstrated over ca. 200 km of three highway sections, crossing the regions of Campania, Basilicata, Calabria and Sicily. Progress in the state of art is represented by the developments in the field of environmental monitoring and in the mathematical modeling of landslides and by the development of services for traffic management. The approach to the problem corresponds to a "systemic logics" where each developed component foresees different interchangeable technological solutions to maximize the operational flexibility. The final system may be configured as a simple to complex structure, including different configurations to deal with different scenarios. Specifically, six different monitoring systems will be realized: three "point" systems, made up of a network of locally measuring sensors, and three "area" systems to remotely measure the displacements of large areas. Each network will be fully integrated and connected to a unique data transmission system. Standardized and shared procedures for the identification of risk scenarios will be developed, concerning the surveys to be carried out, the procedures for each type of on-site testing and guidelines and dynamic templates for presentations of results, such as highway risk maps e.g. The setting up of data acquisition and processing centre and traffic control centre are the core of the integrated system. The DAC (data acquisition center, newly designed) will acquire and process data varying in intensity, dimensions, characteristics and information content. The Traffic Control Center (TCC) is meant to integrate the scientific and the management aspects of hydrological risk monitoring and early warning. The overall system is expected to benefit of the development of new, advanced mathematical models on landslide triggers and propagation. Triggering models will be empirical or hydrological, represented by simple empirical relationships, obtained by linking the antecedent rainfall and the landslide time occurrence, and complete models identified through more complex expressions that take into account different components as the specific site conditions, the mechanical, hydraulic and physical properties of soils and slopes, the local seepage conditions and their contribution to soil strength. The industrial partners of the University of Calabria are Autostrade Tech, Strago and TD Group, with the Universities of Firenze and Catania acting research Partners.

Capparelli, G.; Versace, P.; Artese, G.; Costanzo, S.; Corsonello, P.; Di Massa, G.; Mendicino, G.; Maletta, D.; Leone, S.; Muto, F.; Senatore, A.; Troncone, A.; Conte, E.; Galletta, D.

2012-04-01

8

Mitigation of Wildfire Risk by Homeowners.  

Science.gov (United States)

In-depth interviews conducted with homeowners in Larimer County's Wildland-Urban Interface revealed that homeowners face difficult decisions regarding the implementation of wildfire mitigation measures. Perceptions of wildfire mitigation options may be as...

H. Brenkert P. Champ N. Flores

2005-01-01

9

Urban Policies and Earthquake Risk Mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

The paper aims at proposing some considerations about some recent experiences of research carried out on the theme of earthquake risk mitigation and combining policies and actions of mitigation with urban development strategies. The objective was to go beyond the classical methodological approach aiming at defining a ``technical'' evaluation of the earthquake risk through a procedure which can correlate the three ``components'' of danger, exposure and vulnerability. These researches experiment, in terms of methodology and application, with a new category of interpretation and strategy: the so-called Struttura Urbana Minima (Minimum urban structure). Actually, the introduction of the Struttura Urbana Minima establishes a different approach towards the theme of safety in the field of earthquake risk, since it leads to a wider viewpoint, combining the building aspect of the issue with the purely urban one, involving not only town planning, but also social and managerial implications. In this sense the constituent logic of these researches is strengthened by two fundamental issues: - The social awareness of earthquake - The inclusion of mitigation policies in the ordinary strategies for town and territory management. Three main aspects of the first point, that is of the ``social awareness of earthquake'', characterize this issue and demand to be considered within a prevention policy: - The central role of the risk as a social production, - The central role of the local community consent, - The central role of the local community capability to plan Therefore, consent, considered not only as acceptance, but above all as participation in the elaboration and implementation of choices, plays a crucial role in the wider issue of prevention policies. As far as the second point is concerned, the inclusion of preventive mitigation policies in ordinary strategies for the town and territory management demands the identification of criteria of choice and priorities of intervention and, as a consequence, the opportunity to promote an approach to the theme of mitigation policies realized through strategic principles and systemic logics able to shift the problem from the building to the town. The critical aspects of this theme are tied to three main issues: - The sharing of the way of interpreting town planning, - The integration of multiple objectives in one intervention tool, - The measures which can be adopted for an effective prevention policy. The above-mentioned elements have inspired these researches experimented on Calabrian towns. In particular, in this paper the experience carried out on Reggio Calabria is proposed. Its cultural roots derive from the principles and criteria experimented in small Calabrian towns, but it modifies them according to the complexity of the urban settlement, introducing also some experimental concepts and methodological approaches.

Sarlo, Antonella

2008-07-01

10

Urban Policies and Earthquake Risk Mitigation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The paper aims at proposing some considerations about some recent experiences of research carried out on the theme of earthquake risk mitigation and combining policies and actions of mitigation with urban development strategies. The objective was to go beyond the classical methodological approach aiming at defining a 'technical' evaluation of the earthquake risk through a procedure which can correlate the three 'components' of danger, exposure and vulnerability. These researches experiment, in terms of methodology and application, with a new category of interpretation and strategy: the so-called Struttura Urbana Minima (Minimum urban structure).Actually, the introduction of the Struttura Urbana Minima establishes a different approach towards the theme of safety in the field of earthquake risk, since it leads to a wider viewpoint, combining the building aspect of the issue with the purely urban one, involving not only town planning, but also social and managerial implications.In this sense the constituent logic of these researches is strengthened by two fundamental issues:- The social awareness of earthquake;- The inclusion of mitigation policies in the ordinary strategies for town and territory management. Three main aspects of the first point, that is of the 'social awareness of earthquake', characterize this issue and demand to be considered within a prevention policy:- The central role of the risk as a social production,- The central role of the local community consent,- The central role of the local community capability to planTherefore, consent, considered not only as acceptance, but above all as participation in the elaboration and implementation of choices, plays a crucial role in the wider issue of prevention policies.As far as the second point is concerned, the inclusion of preventive mitigation policies in ordinary strategies for the town and territory management demands the identification of criteria of choice and priorities of intervention and, as a consequence, the opportunity to promote an approach to the theme of mitigation policies realized through strategic principles and systemic logics able to shift the problem from the building to the town. The critical aspects of this theme are tied to three main issues:- The sharing of the way of interpreting town planning,- The integration of multiple objectives in one intervention tool,- The measures which can be adopted for an effective prevention policy.The above-mentioned elements have inspired these researches experimented on Calabrian towns.In particular, in this paper the experience carried out on Reggio Calabria is proposed. Its cultural roots derive from the principles and criteria experimented in small Calabrian towns, but it modifies them according to the complexity of the urban settlement, introducing also some experimental concepts and methodological approaches

2008-07-08

11

Information security risk assessment, aggregation, and mitigation  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

As part of their compliance process with the Basel 2 operational risk management requirements, banks must define how they deal with information security risk management. In this paper we describe work in progress on a new quantitative model to assess and aggregate information security risks that is currently under development for deployment. We show how to find a risk mitigation strategy that is optimal with respect to the model used and the available budget.

Voss, T.; Lenstra, Arjen K.

2004-01-01

12

Innovations in optimizing mitigation and pipeline risk management for natural gas and hazardous liquid systems  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pipeline risk management has been stimulated by pipeline ruptures throughout the world. This paper explores risk management and mitigation strategies for minimizing consequences from pipeline releases, and optimizing financial resources in response or in prevention of these events. More specifically, it examines private sector innovations which optimize mitigation activities in combination with public sector programs such as regulations and standards (i.e., ASME B31.S, API 1160). The mitigation of risk involves the implementation of measures to reduce the frequency of failure, the severity of consequences, or both these attributes of risk. A wide variety of risk mitigation measures are available to pipeline operators. Given the diversity of mitigation measures available, this paper proposes a framework that can assist operating companies in selecting risk mitigation strategies based on risk results, mitigation costs and benefits. (author)

Gloven, Michael P.; Hendren, Elaine S.; Zeller, Sherri A.; Ramirez, Pete V. [Bass-Trigon (United States)

2003-07-01

13

Emerging Radiation Health-Risk Mitigation Technologies  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Past space missions beyond the confines of the Earth's protective magnetic field have been of short duration and protection from the effects of solar particle events was of primary concern. The extension of operational infrastructure beyond low-Earth orbit to enable routine access to more interesting regions of space will require protection from the hazards of the accumulated exposures of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR). There are significant challenges in providing protection from the long-duration exposure to GCR: the human risks to the exposures are highly uncertain and safety requirements places unreasonable demands in supplying sufficient shielding materials in the design. A vigorous approach to future radiation health-risk mitigation requires a triage of techniques (using biological and technical factors) and reduction of the uncertainty in radiation risk models. The present paper discusses the triage of factors for risk mitigation with associated materials issues and engineering design methods

2004-02-04

14

A tiered approach for wildlife risk mitigation  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Efforts to reduce wildlife exposure to contaminants at point source locations such as agricultural fields or hazardous waste sites comprise steps of increasing complexity and ultimately increasing permanence. Although the primary goal of risk mitigation in wildlife management is reduction of population-level direct effects, an alternative ecosystem conservation goal of increasing available habitat for use by wildlife could be the long-term objective. First-tier mitigation would include short-term preventive actions focusing on application timing or placement of compounds. Second-tier mitigation would include intermediate steps such as moving animals out of the treated area or providing supplemental, temporary habitat. Third-tier mitigation would include development of permanent safe-sites near a treated area. Fourth-tier mitigation would involve replacement or banking of land types. Selection of mitigation methods requires prior identification of critical factors leading to exposure such as species affected, how the site is used in time and space, migratory or residential status of nontarget wildlife, and demographic features of the affected populations, as well as identification of objectives of a successful project.

Tiebout, H.M. III; Brugger, K.E. [West Chester Univ., PA (United States). Dept. of Biology

1994-12-31

15

Structural master plan of flood mitigation measures  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Flood protection is one of the practical methods in damage reduction. Although it not possible to be completely protected from flood disaster but major part of damages can be reduced by mitigation plans. In this paper, the optimum flood mitigation master plan is determined by economic evaluation in trading off between the construction costs and expected value of damage reduction as the benefits. Size of the certain mitigation alternative is also be obtained by risk analysis by accepting possi...

Heidari, A.

2009-01-01

16

Structural master plan of flood mitigation measures  

Science.gov (United States)

Flood protection is one of the practical methods in damage reduction. Although it not possible to be completely protected from flood disaster but major part of damages can be reduced by mitigation plans. In this paper, the optimum flood mitigation master plan is determined by economic evaluation in trading off between the construction costs and expected value of damage reduction as the benefits. Size of the certain mitigation alternative is also be obtained by risk analysis by accepting possibility of flood overtopping. Different flood mitigation alternatives are investigated from various aspects in the Dez and Karun river floodplain areas as a case study in south west of IRAN. The results show that detention dam and flood diversion are the best alternatives of flood mitigation methods as well as enforcing the flood control purpose of upstream multipurpose reservoirs. Dyke and levees are not mostly justifiable because of negative impact on down stream by enhancing routed flood peak discharge magnitude and flood damages as well.

Heidari, A.

2009-01-01

17

A web-based tool for ranking landslide mitigation measures  

Science.gov (United States)

As part of the research done in the European project SafeLand "Living with landslide risk in Europe: Assessment, effects of global change, and risk management strategies", a compendium of structural and non-structural mitigation measures for different landslide types in Europe was prepared, and the measures were assembled into a web-based "toolbox". Emphasis was placed on providing a rational and flexible framework applicable to existing and future mitigation measures. The purpose of web-based toolbox is to assist decision-making and to guide the user in the choice of the most appropriate mitigation measures. The mitigation measures were classified into three categories, describing whether the mitigation measures addressed the landslide hazard, the vulnerability or the elements at risk themselves. The measures considered include structural measures reducing hazard and non-structural mitigation measures, reducing either the hazard or the consequences (or vulnerability and exposure of elements at risk). The structural measures include surface protection and control of surface erosion; measures modifying the slope geometry and/or mass distribution; measures modifying surface water regime - surface drainage; measures mo¬difying groundwater regime - deep drainage; measured modifying the mechanical charac¬teristics of unstable mass; transfer of loads to more competent strata; retaining structures (to modify slope geometry and/or to transfer stress to compe¬tent layer); deviating the path of landslide debris; dissipating the energy of debris flows; and arresting and containing landslide debris or rock fall. The non-structural mitigation measures, reducing either the hazard or the consequences: early warning systems; restricting or discouraging construction activities; increasing resistance or coping capacity of elements at risk; relocation of elements at risk; sharing of risk through insurance. The measures are described in the toolbox with fact sheets providing a brief description, guidance on design, schematic details, practical examples and references for each mitigation measure. Each of the measures was given a score on its ability and applicability for different types of landslides and boundary conditions, and a decision support matrix was established. The web-based toolbox organizes the information in the compendium and provides an algorithm to rank the measures on the basis of the decision support matrix, and on the basis of the risk level estimated at the site. The toolbox includes a description of the case under study and offers a simplified option for estimating the hazard and risk levels of the slide at hand. The user selects the mitigation measures to be included in the assessment. The toolbox then ranks, with built-in assessment factors and weights and/or with user-defined ranking values and criteria, the mitigation measures included in the analysis. The toolbox includes data management, e.g. saving data half-way in an analysis, returning to an earlier case, looking up prepared examples or looking up information on mitigation measures. The toolbox also generates a report and has user-forum and help features. The presentation will give an overview of the mitigation measures considered and examples of the use of the toolbox, and will take the attendees through the application of the toolbox.

Lacasse, S.; Vaciago, G.; Choi, Y. J.; Kalsnes, B.

2012-04-01

18

Mitigation of foreign Direct investment risk and hedging  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Instruments of risk mitigation play an important role in managing country risk within the foreign direct investment (FDI) decision. Our study assesses country risk by state-dependent preferences and introduces futures contracts as a tool of risk mitigation. We show that country risk assessments related to foreign direct investment do not matter if the multinational firm enters currency futures markets. Besides currency risk, multinationals cross-hedge country risk via the derivatives market. ...

Wahl, Jack E.; Broll, Udo

2009-01-01

19

Bioenergy as a Mitigation Measure  

Science.gov (United States)

Numerous studies have shown that bioenergy, being one of the renewable energies with the lowest costs, is expected to play an important role in the near future as climate change mitigation measure. Current practices of converting crop products such as carbohydrates or plant oils to ethanol or biodiesel have limited capabilities to curb emission. Moreover, they compete with food production for the most fertile lands. Thus, second generation bioenergy technologies are being developed to process lignocellulosic plant materials from fast growing tree and grass species. A number of deforestation experiments using Earth System models have shown that in the mid- to high latitudes, deforested surface albedo strongly increases in presence of snow. This biophysical effect causes cooling, which could dominate over the biogeochemical warming effect because of the carbon emissions due to deforestation. In order to find out the global bioenergy potential of extensive plantations in the mid- to high latitudes, and the resultant savings in carbon emissions, we use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL run at a high spatial resolution of 0.5°. It represents both natural and managed ecosystems, including the cultivation of cellulosic energy crops. LPJmL is run with 21st century projections of climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration based on the IPCC-SRES business as usual or A2 scenario. Latitudes above 45° in both hemispheres are deforested and planted with crops having the highest bioenergy return for the respective pixels of the model. The rest of the Earth has natural vegetation. The agricultural management intensity values are used such that it results in the best approximation for 1999 - 2003 national yields of wheat and maize as reported by FAOSTAT 2009. Four different scenarios of land management are used ranging from an idealistic or best case scenario, where all limitations of soil and terrain properties are managed to the worst case scenario where none of these properties are managed. Simulated bioenergy potentials from 1901 to 2098 correspond to a significant percentage of the global energy demand and thus could potentially bring about considerable savings in carbon emissions. These potentials will be reported and compared to the energy demand. Analysis of their sensitivities to different land management scenarios will be presented as well.

Dass, P.; Brovkin, V.; Müller, C.; Cramer, W.

2011-12-01

20

Structural master plan of flood mitigation measures  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Flood protection is one of the practical methods in damage reduction. Although it not possible to be completely protected from flood disaster but major part of damages can be reduced by mitigation plans. In this paper, the optimum flood mitigation master plan is determined by economic evaluation in trading off between the construction costs and expected value of damage reduction as the benefits. Size of the certain mitigation alternative is also be obtained by risk analysis by accepting possibility of flood overtopping. Different flood mitigation alternatives are investigated from various aspects in the Dez and Karun river floodplain areas as a case study in south west of IRAN. The results show that detention dam and flood diversion are the best alternatives of flood mitigation methods as well as enforcing the flood control purpose of upstream multipurpose reservoirs. Dyke and levees are not mostly justifiable because of negative impact on down stream by enhancing routed flood peak discharge magnitude and flood damages as well.

A. Heidari

2009-01-01

 
 
 
 
21

Natural Hazards Monitoring and Risk Mitigation  

International Science & Technology Center (ISTC)

Principles of Monitoring of Hazardous Geodynamic and Glaciohydrometeorological Processes in the Areas of Strategically Important for Economics of Georgia Objects and Recommendations on Hazard Mitigation

22

Biotechnology System Facility: Risk Mitigation on Mir  

Science.gov (United States)

NASA is working with its international partners to develop space vehicles and facilities that will give researchers the opportunity to conduct scientific investigations in space. As part of this activity, NASA's Biotechnology Cell Science Program (BCSP) at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) is developing a world-class biotechnology laboratory facility for the International Space Station (ISS). This report describes the BCSP, including the role of the BTS. We identify the purpose and objectives of the BTS and a detailed description of BTS facility design and operational concept, BTS facility and experiment-specific hardware, and scientific investigations conducted in the facility. We identify the objectives, methods, and results of risk mitigation investigations of the effects of microgravity and cosmic radiation on the BTS data acquisition and control system. These results may apply to many other space experiments that use commercial, terrestrial-based data acquisition technology. Another focal point is a description of the end-to-end process of integrating and operating biotechnology experiments on a variety of space vehicles. The identification of lessons learned that can be applied to future biotechnology experiments is an overall theme of the report. We include a brief summary of the science results, but this is not the focus of the report. The report provides some discussion on the successful 130-day tissue engineering experiment performed in BTS on Mir and describes a seminal gene array investigation that identified a set of unique genes that are activated in space.

Gonda, Steve R., III; Galloway, Steve R.

2003-01-01

23

Phishing Techniques and Mitigating the Associated Security Risks  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Organizations invest heavily in technicalcontrols for their Information Assurance (IA infrastructure.These technical controls mitigate and reduce the risk of damage caused by outsider attacks. Mostorganizations rely on training to mitigate and reduce risk of non-technical attacks such as socialengineering. Organizations lump IA training into small modules that personnel typically rush throughbecause the training programs lack enough depth and creativity to keep a trainee engaged. The key toretaining knowledge is making the information memorable. This paper describes common and emergingattack vectors and how to lower and mitigate the associated risks.

Marc A. Rader

2013-07-01

24

Influence of behavioral biases on the assessment of multi-hazard risks and the implementation of multi-hazard risks mitigation measures: case study of multi-hazard cyclone shelters in Tamil Nadu, India  

Science.gov (United States)

In December 2004, a multiple hazards event devastated the Tamil Nadu province of India. The Sumatra -Andaman earthquake with a magnitude of Mw=9.1-9.3 caused the Indian Ocean tsunami with wave heights up to 30 m, and flooding that reached up to two kilometers inland in some locations. More than 7,790 persons were killed in the province of Tamil Nadu, with 206 in its capital Chennai. The time lag between the earthquake and the tsunami's arrival in India was over an hour, therefore, if a suitable early warning system existed, a proper means of communicating the warning and shelters existing for people would exist, than while this would not have prevented the destruction of infrastructure, several thousands of human lives would have been saved. India has over forty years of experience in the construction of cyclone shelters. With additional efforts and investment, these shelters could be adapted to other types of hazards such as tsunamis and flooding, as well as the construction of new multi-hazard cyclone shelters (MPCS). It would therefore be possible to mitigate one hazard such as cyclones by the construction of a network of shelters while at the same time adapting these shelters to also deal with, for example, tsunamis, with some additional investment. In this historical case, the failure to consider multiple hazards caused significant human losses. The current paper investigates the patterns of the national decision-making process with regards to multiple hazards mitigation measures and how the presence of behavioral and cognitive biases influenced the perceptions of the probabilities of multiple hazards and the choices made for their mitigation by the national decision-makers. Our methodology was based on the analysis of existing reports from national and international organizations as well as available scientific literature on behavioral economics and natural hazards. The results identified several biases in the national decision-making process when the construction of cyclone shelters was being undertaken. The availability heuristics caused a perception of low probability of tsunami following an earthquake, as the last large similar event happened over a hundred years ago. Another led to a situation when decisions were taken on the basis of experience and not statistical evidence, namely, experience showed that the so-called "Ring of Fire" generates underground earthquakes and tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean. This knowledge made decision-makers to neglect the numerical estimations about probability of underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean even though seismologists were warning about probability of a large underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean. The bounded rationality bias led to misperception of signals from the early warning center in the Pacific Ocean. The resulting limited concern resulted in risk mitigation measures that considered cyclone risks, but much less about tsunami. Under loss aversion considerations, the decision-makers perceived the losses connected with the necessary additional investment as being greater than benefits from mitigating a less probable hazard.

Komendantova, Nadejda; Patt, Anthony

2013-04-01

25

Radon measurement and mitigation activity in Finland.  

Science.gov (United States)

Radon prevention, measurement and mitigation activities have been increasing in Finland during the 2000s. Nowadays, many municipal authorities, especially those located in high-radon areas, require radon prevention measures. This has activated radon measurements. Owners of new houses having radon piping installed under the floor slab are the most active group to measure and reduce the found high-radon values. Their radon awareness is apparently better than on the average, and the existing piping makes it easier and cheaper to reduce the radon levels. Local campaigns involving invitation flyers mailed to the residents have been a cost-effective means to activate measurements of older houses. So far 116 611 dwellings in low-rise residential buildings have been measured. At least 15 % of the 16 860 dwellings found to exceed the reference level of 400 Bq m(-3) had their indoor radon level reduced below that. PMID:24729562

Valmari, T; Arvela, H; Reisbacka, H; Holmgren, O

2014-07-01

26

Microsoft Word - Mitigation Measures and Environmental Monitoring P  

River Basin Management Plan - Strategic Environmental Assessment Strategic Environmental Assessment of River Basin Management Plans and Programme of Measures - Mitigation Measures and Environmental Monitoring ...

27

Current issues in dietary acrylamide: formation, mitigation and risk assessment.  

Science.gov (United States)

Acrylamide (AA) is known as a neurotoxin in humans and it is classified as a probable human carcinogen by the International Agency of Research on Cancer. AA is produced as by-product of the Maillard reaction in starchy foods processed at high temperatures (>120 °C). This review includes the investigation of AA precursors, mechanisms of AA formation and AA mitigation technologies in potato, cereal and coffee products. Additionally, most relevant issues of AA risk assessment are discussed. New technologies tested from laboratory to industrial scale face, as a major challenge, the reduction of AA content of browned food, while still maintaining its attractive organoleptic properties. Reducing sugars such as glucose and fructose are the major contributors to AA in potato-based products. On the other hand, the limiting substrate of AA formation in cereals and coffee is the free amino acid asparagine. For some products the addition of glycine or asparaginase reduces AA formation during baking. Since, for potatoes, the limiting substrate is reducing sugars, increases in sugar content in potatoes during storage then introduce some difficulties and potentially quite large variations in the AA content of the final product. Sugars in potatoes may be reduced by blanching. Levels of AA in different foods show large variations and no general upper limit is easily applicable, since some formation will always occur. Current policy is that practical measures should be taken voluntarily to reduce AA formation in vulnerable foods since AA is considered a health risk at the concentrations found in foods. PMID:23939985

Pedreschi, Franco; Mariotti, María Salomé; Granby, Kit

2014-01-15

28

Mitigating ice risk in the business case  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ice conditions in the Canadian east coast were described with reference to the impact they may have on exploration and production wells in the Jeanne d'Arc Basin offshore Newfoundland. Graphs depicting seasonal variability and iceberg distribution from 1983 to 2001 were presented. Both fixed and floating offshore facilities are designed to maintain both structural integrity and well control in the event of an iceberg collision. The least likely occurrence could have the largest economic consequences. The most significant risk is considered to be from medium and large icebergs because they may have sufficient draft to make contact with the sea floor. The scouring events can penetrate the sea floor from .5 meters to over 5 meters which can cause damage to sub-sea equipment. The most likely risk associated with operating in ice prone waters is operational downtime resulting from waiting on ice resources, shutting in the well, flushing lines, pulling anchors and moving the facility. Ice monitoring and management operations can also impact on the availability of support vessels for re-supply. Facilities on the Grand Banks of Newfoundland are designed to withstand ice loadings ranging from 100,000 tonnes to 6 million tonnes. In general, ice management involving detection and tracking of icebergs has a high success rate. Effective iceberg detection requires the integration of many different sensors and data sources. The data is then coordinated by the Ice Data Network System (IDNS), a computerized system that is used for risk assessment and management plans. The current cost for ice management represents 0.0003 per cent of the current production value. Operators of the White Rose and Hebron/Ben Nevis fields could realize a 60 per cent reduction in their costs for ice management which provides assurance against unnecessary downtime due to unexpected collisions. tabs., figs.

Rudkin, P. [Provincial Airlines Ltd., NF (Canada)

2001-07-01

29

Evaluating the effectiveness of flood damage mitigation measures by the application of Propensity Score Matching  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The employment of damage mitigation measures by individuals is an important component of integrated flood risk management. In order to promote efficient damage mitigation measures, accurate estimates of their damage mitigation potential are required. That is, for correctly assessing the damage mitigation measures' effectiveness from survey data, one needs to control for sources of bias. A biased estimate can occur if risk characteristics differ between individuals who have, or have not, implemented mitigation measures. This study removed this bias by applying an econometric evaluation technique called Propensity Score Matching to a survey of German households along along two major rivers major rivers that were flooded in 2002, 2005 and 2006. The application of this method detected substantial overestimates of mitigation measures' effectiveness if bias is not controlled for, ranging from nearly € 1700 to € 15 000 per measure. Bias-corrected effectiveness estimates of several mitigation measures show that these measures are still very effective since they prevent between € 6700–14 000 of flood damage. This study concludes with four main recommendations regarding how to better apply Propensity Score Matching in future studies, and makes several policy recommendations.

P. Hudson

2014-01-01

30

Mitigating Epidemics through Mobile Micro-measures  

CERN Multimedia

Epidemics of infectious diseases are among the largest threats to the quality of life and the economic and social well-being of developing countries. The arsenal of measures against such epidemics is well-established, but costly and insufficient to mitigate their impact. In this paper, we argue that mobile technology adds a powerful weapon to this arsenal, because (a) mobile devices endow us with the unprecedented ability to measure and model the detailed behavioral patterns of the affected population, and (b) they enable the delivery of personalized behavioral recommendations to individuals in real time. We combine these two ideas and propose several strategies to generate such recommendations from mobility patterns. The goal of each strategy is a large reduction in infections, with a small impact on the normal course of daily life. We evaluate these strategies over the Orange D4D dataset and show the benefit of mobile micro-measures, even if only a fraction of the population participates. These preliminary ...

Kafsi, Mohamed; Maystre, Lucas; Yartseva, Lyudmila; Grossglauser, Matthias; Thiran, Patrick

2013-01-01

31

Strategy Guideline: Mitigation of Retrofit Risk Factors  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI) is currently developing strategies designed to promote and achieve increased energy savings and promote upgrades in the residential retrofit sector. These strategies are targeted to retrofit program managers, retrofit contractors, policy makers, academic researchers, and non-governmental organizations. This report focuses on four key areas to promote home energy upgrades: fostering accurate energy savings projections; understanding consumer perceptions for energy savings; measuring energy savings, and ensuring quality control for retrofit installations.

Berman, M.; Smith, P.; Porse, E.

2012-12-01

32

Exploring Complex Systems Aspects of Blackout Risk and Mitigation  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Electric power transmission systems are a key infrastructure, and blackouts of these systems have major consequences for the economy and national security. Analyses of blackout data suggest that blackout size distributions have a power law form over much of their range. This result is an indication that blackouts behave as a complex dynamical system. We use a simulation of an upgrading power transmission system to investigate how these complex system dynamics impact the assessment and mitigation of blackout risk. The mitigation of failures in complex systems needs to be approached with care. The mitigation efforts can move the system to a new dynamic equilibrium while remaining near criticality and preserving the power law region. Thus, while the absolute frequency of blackouts of all sizes may be reduced, the underlying forces can still cause the relative frequency of large blackouts to small blackouts to remain the same. Moreover, in some cases, efforts to mitigate small blackouts can even increase the frequency of large blackouts. This result occurs because the large and small blackouts are not mutually independent, but are strongly coupled by the complex dynamics.

Newman, David E [University of Alaska; Carreras, Benjamin A [ORNL; Lynch, Vickie E [ORNL; Dobson, Ian [University of Wisconsin, Madison

2011-01-01

33

Interventionist and participatory approaches to flood risk mitigation decisions: two case studies in the Italian Alps  

Science.gov (United States)

Flood risk mitigation decisions pose key challenges not only from a technical but also from a social, economic and political viewpoint. There is an increasing demand for improving the quality of these processes by including different stakeholders - and especially by involving the local residents in the decision making process - and by guaranteeing the actual improvement of local social capacities during and after the decision making. In this paper we analyse two case studies of flood risk mitigation decisions, Malborghetto-Valbruna and Vipiteno-Sterzing, in the Italian Alps. In both of them, mitigation works have been completed or planned, yet following completely different approaches especially in terms of responses of residents and involvement of local authorities. In Malborghetto-Valbruna an 'interventionist' approach (i.e. leaning towards a top down/technocratic decision process) was used to make decisions after the flood event that affected the municipality in the year 2003. In Vipiteno-Sterzing, a 'participatory' approach (i.e. leaning towards a bottom-up/inclusive decision process) was applied: decisions about risk mitigation measures were made by submitting different projects to the local citizens and by involving them in the decision making process. The analysis of the two case studies presented in the paper is grounded on the results of two research projects. Structured and in-depth interviews, as well as questionnaire surveys were used to explore residents' and local authorities' orientations toward flood risk mitigation. Also a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) involving key stakeholders was used to better understand the characteristics of the communities and their perception of flood risk mitigation issues. The results highlight some key differences between interventionist and participatory approaches, together with some implications of their adoption in the local context. Strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches, as well as key challenges for the future are also discussed.

Bianchizza, C.; Del Bianco, D.; Pellizzoni, L.; Scolobig, A.

2012-04-01

34

Development of risk mitigation tool to mitigate risks in supply networks  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

There are different risks in a company's supply chain. From down-stream to up-stream, the supply chain is not a chain anymore. It has evolved to a more complicated and intricate web of flow of goods and information. When dealing with these intricate paths, there is always an associated risk in the supply chain that is caused by some disruption in the flow of goods and information. It is essential for any organization to attempt to prevent these risks. One way to prevent these risks is by usin...

2013-01-01

35

Fish habitat mitigation measures for hydrotechnical projects  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In recent years, the identification and mitigation of environmental impacts of hydrotechnical projects, particularly on fish and fish habitats, have become a major component of project planning and design. Potential impacts to fish and fish habitat may include increased fish mortality, decreased species diversity, and loss or decreases in fish production due to loss of habitat or alteration of its suitability. These impacts arise from flooding of riverine habitat, alteration of flow quantity and distribution, changes in morphology, and alteration of water quality, including suspended sediments, temperature, dissolved oxygen, and mercury. The results of a study for the Canadian Federal Department of Fisheries and Oceans Central and Arctic Region, examining fish habitat mitigation techniques for their applicability to hydrotechnical projects in Canada are summarized. The requirements for achievement and verification of the no net loss policy for a project are discussed. 10 refs., 2 tabs

1992-05-27

36

Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

f realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap. Product - Risk Handling Strategy. STEP 4 - Residual Risk Work off The risk handling strategy is entered into the Project Risk Allocation Tool (PRAT) to analyze each task for its ability to reduce risk. The result is risk-informed task prioritization. The risk handling strategy is captured in the Risk Management System, a relational database that provides conventional database utility, including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. The tool's Hierarchy Tree allows visualization and analyses of complex relationships between risks, risk mitigation tasks, design needs, and PIRTs. Product - Project Risk Allocation Tool and Risk Management System which depict project plan to reduce risk and current progress in doing so.

2011-09-28

37

Flicker Detection, Measurement and Means of Mitigation: A Review  

Science.gov (United States)

The voltage fluctuations caused by rapid industrial load change have been a major concern for supply utilities, regulatory agencies and customers. This paper gives a general review about how to examine/assess voltage flicker and methods followed in measuring the flickers due to rapid changing loads and means for its mitigation. It discusses the effects on utilities conditions, compensators response time and compensator capacity of flicker mitigation. A comparison between conventional mitigation techniques and the state-of-art mitigation techniques are carried out. It is shown in many cases that the state-of-art solution provides higher performance compared with conventional mitigation techniques. However, the choice of most suitable solution depends on characteristics of the supply at the point of connection, the requirement of the load and economics.

Virulkar, V. B.; Aware, M. V.

2014-06-01

38

The last mile: earthquake risk mitigation assistance in developing countries.  

Science.gov (United States)

Over the past few decades, we have seen many joint programmes between developed countries and developing countries to help the latter in managing their earthquake risks. These programmes span the whole spectrum of disciplines from seismology and geology to engineering, social science and economics. Many of these programmes have been effective in raising awareness, in urging governments to work towards risk reduction and in spawning an 'industry' of disaster management in many of the developing countries. However, even as these efforts proceed, we have seen death and destruction due to earthquake after earthquake in developing countries, strongly suggesting that the problems for which those assistance programmes were developed are not so effective. Therefore, it is natural to ask why this is happening. Are the assistance programmes reaching the right people? Maybe we are reaching the right people and doing the right type of things in these countries, but we have not allowed enough time for our actions to take effect. Maybe we are reaching the right people and doing the right actions for most of the miles we need to cover in helping communities mitigate their earthquake risks. However, the issue could be whether we are reaching people who represent the 'last mile' on this pathway. Here, I explore whether the work that many organizations and countries have done towards earthquake risk reduction over the past few decades in developing countries is appropriate or not. Why do we keep seeing the catastrophes of Sumatra, Chi Chi, Bhuj, Turkey, Algeria and on and on? I will articulate what I think is the problem. My contribution is intended to generate discussions, self-analysis of our approaches, what we are doing right and what we are not doing right. Hopefully such discussions will result in a better connection between the last mile and programmes around the world which are working towards earthquake risk mitigation. PMID:16844655

Shah, Haresh C

2006-08-15

39

Optimum cooling of data centers application of risk assessment and mitigation techniques  

CERN Multimedia

This book provides data center designers and operators with methods by which to assess and mitigate the risks associated with utilization of optimum cooling solutions. The goal is to provide readers with sufficient knowledge to implement measures such as free air cooling or direct liquid immersion cooling properly, or combination of existing and emerging cooling technologies in data centers, base stations, and server farms. This book also: Discusses various telecommunication infrastructures, with an emphasis on data centers and base stations Covers the most commonly known energy and power management techniques, as well as emerging cooling solutions for data centers Describes the risks to the electronic equipment fitted in these installations and the methods of risk mitigation Devotes  a particular focus to an up-to-date review of the emerging cooling methods (such as free air cooling and direct liquid immersion cooling) and tools and best practices for designers, technology developers, installation operators...

Dai, Jun; Das, Diganta; Pecht, Michael G

2014-01-01

40

Risks and risks mitigations in the supply chain of mangosteen: a case study  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Mangosteen (Garcinia mangostana L.) is the highly demanded fruit for export commodity from Indonesia. The biggest mangosteen production center in Indonesia is West Java Province. The development of the mangosteen supply chain in Indonesia, particularly in West Java Province is heavily affected by uncertain potential risks for the chain. This paper identifies potential risks of the supply chain and studies the interrelationships between strategies for mitigating those risks. Fuzzy Anal...

Astuti, R.; Arkeman, M. M. Y.; Poerwanto, R.; Meuwissen, M. P. M.

2013-01-01

 
 
 
 
41

How much risk is mitigated by LTC Insurance? A case study of the public system in Spain  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

We present a methodology that allows to calculate the impact of a given Long-Term Care (LTC) insurance protection system on the risk of incurring extremely large individual lifetime costs. Our proposed methodology is illustrated with a case study. According to our risk measure, the current Spanish public LTC system mitigates individual risk by more than 30% compared to the situation where no public protection were available. We show that our method can be used to compare risk reduction of alt...

2011-01-01

42

Mitigating failure risk in an aging electric power transmission system  

Science.gov (United States)

As the electric transmission system in the U.S. ages, mitigating the risk of high-voltage transformer failures becomes an increasingly important issue for transmission owners and operators. This thesis addresses the problem of allocating high-voltage transformers throughout the electric grid in order to mitigate this risk. We introduce two models that investigate different characteristics of the problem. The first model focusses on the spatial allocation of transformers in a static, two-stage context. Algorithmically, this model investigates the use of approximate dynamic programming (ADP) for solving large scale stochastic facility location problems. The ADP algorithms that we develop consistently obtain near optimal solutions for problems where the optimum is computable and outperform a standard heuristic on more complex problems. Our computational results show that the ADP methodology can be applied to stochastic facility location problems that cannot be solved with exact algorithms. The second model optimizes the acquisition and the deployment of high-voltage transformers dynamically over time. We formulate the problem as a Markov Decision Process which cannot be solved for realistic problem instances. Instead we solve the problem using approximate dynamic programming using a number of different value function approximations, which are compared against an optimal solution for a simplified version of the problem. The best-performing approximation produces solutions within a few percent of the optimum with very fast convergence. The results show that ADP can used to solve large scale resource allocation problems when resources have long lead times. This thesis emphasizes numerical work. We apply our best performing algorithms to realistic problem instances based on a real-world transformer population, which gives insights into a broad range of transformer management issues of practical interest. We also analyze existing transformer management policies and show how our models and algorithms can be used to reduce risk and costs.

Enders, Johannes

43

Pesticide risk mitigation by vegetated treatment systems: a meta-analysis.  

Science.gov (United States)

Pesticides entering agricultural surface waters threaten water quality and aquatic communities. Recently, vegetated treatment systems (VTSs) (e.g., constructed wetlands and vegetated ditches) have been proposed as pesticide risk mitigation measures. However, little is known about the effectiveness of VTSs in controlling nonpoint source pesticide pollution and factors relevant for pesticide retention within these systems. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis on pesticide mitigation by VTSs using data from the scientific literature and the European LIFE ArtWET project. Overall, VTSs effectively reduced pesticide exposure levels (i.e., the majority of pesticide retention performances was >70%). A multiple linear regression analysis of 188 retention performance cases identified the two pesticide properties, organic carbon sorption coefficient value and water-phase 50% dissipation time, as well as the VTS characteristics overall plant coverage and hydraulic retention time for targeting high efficacy of pesticide retention. The application of a Tier I risk assessment (EU Uniform Principle) revealed a higher toxicity reduction for hydrophobic and nonpersistent insecticides compared with less sorptive and not readily degradable herbicides and fungicides. Overall, nearly half (48.5%) of all pesticide field concentrations ( = 130) failed Tier I standard risk assessment at the inlet of VTSs, and 29.2% of all outlet concentrations exceeded conservative acute threshold levels. We conclude that VTSs are a suitable and effective risk mitigation strategy for agricultural nonpoint source pesticide pollution of surface waters. Further research is needed to improve their overall efficacy in retaining pesticides. PMID:21712575

Stehle, Sebastian; Elsaesser, David; Gregoire, Caroline; Imfeld, Gwenaël; Niehaus, Engelbert; Passeport, Elodie; Payraudeau, Sylvain; Schäfer, Ralf B; Tournebize, Julien; Schulz, Ralf

2011-01-01

44

Mitigating mountain hazards in Austria - legislation, risk transfer, and awareness building  

Science.gov (United States)

Embedded in the overall concept of integral risk management, mitigating mountain hazards is pillared by land use regulations, risk transfer, and information. In this paper aspects on legislation related to natural hazards in Austria are summarised, with a particular focus on spatial planning activities and hazard mapping, and possible adaptations focussing on enhanced resilience are outlined. Furthermore, the system of risk transfer is discussed, highlighting the importance of creating incentives for risk-aware behaviour, above all with respect to individual precaution and insurance solutions. Therefore, the issue of creating awareness through information is essential, which is presented subsequently. The study results in recommendations of how administrative units on different federal and local levels could increase the enforcement of regulations related to the minimisation of natural hazard risk. Moreover, the nexus to risk transfer mechanisms is provided, focusing on the current compensation system in Austria and some possible adjustments in order to provide economic incentives for (private) investments in mitigation measures, i.e. local structural protection. These incentives should be supported by delivering information on hazard and risk target-oriented to any stakeholder involved. Therefore, coping strategies have to be adjusted and the interaction between prevention and precaution has to be highlighted. The paper closes with recommendations of how these efforts could be achieved, with a particular focus on the situation in the Republic of Austria.

Holub, M.; Fuchs, S.

2009-04-01

45

Reducing New Orleans Residential Flood Risk in an Uncertain Future Using Non-Structural Risk Mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

Five years after Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast, the long-term future of the City of New Orleans remains uncertain. This paper addresses one of New Orleans' most critical challenges: how to make the city more resilient and less vulnerable to future flood damages. Despite recent upgrades to the protection system surrounding the city designed to protect against floods with a 1-in-100 (1%) annual chance of occurrence, New Orleans remains vulnerable to lower-frequency, high-damage events. In addition, uncertain factors that influence flood risk, including coastal land loss and subsidence, rising sea levels, and population recovery and growth, may lead to increasing risk over time. Current proposals for risk reduction in New Orleans and South Louisiana, however, have not fully accounted for these key uncertain drivers. Rather than focus on additional large-scale structural infrastructure investments, this paper considers proposals to augment the existing protection system with ``non-structural" risk mitigation programs. Non-structural risk mitigation includes incentives for elevating existing or new structures, revised building codes, incentives for relocation to lower risk areas, and land use restrictions designed to curtail future growth in the floodplain. This research estimates the risk reduction benefits and implementation costs of non-structural risk mitigation strategies focused on single-family or small multi-family homes in New Orleans. We draw from existing risk models to develop a low-resolution scenario generator, NOLArisk, designed to produce first-order estimates of property risk from 2011-2060 across a range of uncertain future scenarios. We then apply exploratory modeling and Robust Decision Making (RDM) methods to a) suggest strategies that balance risk reduction and implementation costs across many or most plausible futures, and b) identify scenarios in which current alternatives yield negative net economic benefits or excessive levels of residual risk.

Fischbach, J. R.; Groves, D.; Johnson, D.

2010-12-01

46

An economic and geographic appraisal of a spatial natural hazard risk: a study of landslide mitigation rules  

Science.gov (United States)

Efficient mitigation of natural hazards requires a spatial representation of the risk, based upon the geographic distribution of physical parameters and man-related development activities. Through such a representation, the spatial probability of landslides based upon physical science concepts is estimated for Cincinnati, Ohio. Mitigation programs designed to reduce loss from landslide natural hazards are then evaluated. An optimum mitigation rule is suggested that is spatially selective and is determined by objective measurements of hillside slope and properties of the underlying soil. -Authors

Bernknopf, R. L.; Brookshire, D. S.; Campbell, R. H.; Shapiro, C. D.

1988-01-01

47

Understanding risk evaluation and mitigation strategies in organ transplantation.  

Science.gov (United States)

The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Amendments Act of 2007 mandated that Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) be required of manufacturers. These REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with drugs and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product, including once the product becomes available as generic. The elements of an individual REMS program consist of three levels: medication guide or patient package insert, communication plan, and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). A medication guide or patient package insert is used to help prevent serious adverse events, aid in patient decision making, and enhance drug adherence. Communication plans are used to educate health care providers and to encourage their compliance with REMS. The ETASU is a restrictive process that is implemented when it is deemed necessary to ensure that patients have safe access to products with known serious risks that would otherwise be unavailable. To review the components of REMS and specifically assess their impact on health care providers practicing within the organ transplantation arena, a literature search of the MEDLINE database (January 2007-December 2010) was performed, and published materials from the FDA and its Web site were also reviewed. In transplantation, REMS programs exist for both everolimus (medication guide and communication plan) and sirolimus (medication guide). The FDA has stated that all mycophenolic acid derivatives will be subject to a proposed REMS that has not yet been approved; however, both branded mycophenolic acid agents already have approved medication guides. The REMS are a permanent fixture in the development and marketing of pharmaceutical agents, and their further implementation in solid organ transplantation is inevitable. Transplantation providers should take a proactive role in patient education and implementation of REMS within the therapeutic area. It is imperative for health care providers to realize that the ultimate goals of REMS are to reduce the potential for serious risks and to make outcomes from the treatment of disease more predictable. PMID:21923459

Gabardi, Steven

2011-07-01

48

An integrated approach to risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN threat  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

CBRN mass casualty events threat mitigation remains today the highest international priority. Although significant progress has been made, the national security requirements for efforts to combat Weapons of Mass Destruction and Weapons of Mass Disruption will be of the highest national priority in the near future. An integration of a number of approaches is essential in the risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN treat. Preparedness measures and procedures, engineering, science and technology, policy, medical, and emergency response are essential to reduce the threat from the proliferation and use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Improved coordination between international, public and private security entities is also essential task to hopefully prevent the terrorist attacks. In this lecture, it will be presented very important scientific approach to risk assessment of potential use of nuclear, radiological, biological or chemical weapons in terrorist actions. An integrated approach for mitigating the CBRN threat, crisis management and preparedness measures for prevention and reduction of potential consequences, will be presented.(author)

2009-04-05

49

Influence analysis of mitigative measures on evolution of SBO scenario  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In this study, the full-range Station Black-out accident scenario for QINSHAN phase II 3 and 4 Unit NPP is performed and analyzed by application of MELCOR code 1.8.5. Effect of mitigative measures such as primary circuit depressurization, passive hydrogen recombination, on evolution of accident phenomena were compared in the calculation analysis. Radial and axial failure mode of fuel and cladding are simulated; Also axial and radial ablation trends of cavity induced by MCCI were quantitatively determined; For the late phase of scenario, production, distribution of hydrogen and its recombination by PAR system were evaluated and analyzed. The results indicate that timely depressurization of primary circuit by execution of pressurizer extended function can delay both core collapse and melt through of RPV for about 5 h, as well as eliminate the risk of early radioactive release through SG U-tube to the environment; Solution 3C indicates the 10 PARs have successfully recombined 667 kg of hydrogen within 24 h. As a result, maximum hydrogen concentration is as low as 3.12%, pressure inside the containment accumulates to about 0.4 MPa. (authors)

2006-06-01

50

Measuring Investors' Risk Appetite  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This paper proposes a method for measuring investor risk appetite based on the variation in the ratio of risk-neutral to subjective probabilities used by investors in evaluating possible future returns to an asset. Unlike other indicators advanced in the literature, our measure of market sentiment distinguishes risk appetite from risk aversion, and is reported in levels rather than changes. Implementation of the approach yields results that respond to crises and other major economic events in...

2005-01-01

51

Human Factors Research for Space Exploration: Measurement, Modeling, and Mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

As part of NASA's Human Research Program, the Space Human Factors Engineering Project serves as the bridge between Human Factors research and Human Spaceflight applications. Our goal is to be responsive to the operational community while addressing issues at a sufficient level of abstraction to ensure that our tools and solutions generalize beyond the point design. In this panel, representatives from four of our research domains will discuss the challenges they face in solving current problems while also enabling future capabilities. Historically, engineering-dominated organizations have tended to view good Human Factors (HF) as a desire rather than a requirement in system design and development. Our field has made significant gains in the past decade, however; the Department of Defense, for example, now recognizes Human-System Integration (HSI), of which HF is a component, as an integral part of their divisions hardware acquisition processes. And our own agency was far more accepting of HF/HSI requirements during the most recent vehicle systems definition than in any prior cycle. Nonetheless, HF subject matter experts at NASA often find themselves in catch up mode... coping with legacy systems (hardware and software) and procedures that were designed with little regard for the human element, and too often with an attitude of we can deal with any operator issues during training. Our challenge, then, is to segregate the true knowledge gaps in Space Human Factors from the prior failures to incorporate best (or even good) HF design principles. Further, we strive to extract the overarching core HF issues from the point-design-specific concerns that capture the operators (and managers) attention. Generally, our approach embraces a 3M approach to Human Factors: Measurement, Modeling, and Mitigation. Our first step is to measure human performance, to move from subjective anecdotes to objective, quantified data. Next we model the phenomenon, using appropriate methods in our field, modifying them to suit the unique aspects of the space environment. Finally, we develop technologies, tools, and procedures to mitigate the decrements in human performance and capabilities that occur in space environments. When successful, we decrease risks to crew safety and to mission success. When extremely successful (or lucky), we devise generalizable solutions that advance the state of our practice. Our panel is composed of researchers from diverse domains of our project... from different boxes, if you will, of the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS).

Kaiser, Mary K.; Allen, Christopher S.; Barshi, Immanuel; Billman, Dorrit; Holden, Kritina L.

2010-01-01

52

Special Issue: Risk Management Challenges: Mitigate the Risk from Natural Hazards  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Within minutes of the March 2011 earthquake in Japan, news media provided unprecedented coverage of an unfolding natural catastrophe. Events such as this place natural disasters firmly in the public eye but only for a short time. It falls to the research community to learn the lessons offered by these events and turn them into opportunities for developing more effective risk management and mitigation strategies and identifying the factors that contribute to the vulnerability and resilience of...

Douglas Paton

2011-01-01

53

Stromboli (2002-2003) crisis management and risk mitigation actions  

Science.gov (United States)

The 2002-2003 eruptive emergency of Stromboli was the most dangerous to have occurred on the island in the past three centuries. Starting from 30 December, the national Department of Civil Protection (DCP), operating under the direct authority of the prime minister, took responsibility for the emergency management. One of the most relevant achievements was the setting up, on the island, of Centro Operativo Avanzato, a permanent scientific/civil protection structure where signals of volcano monitoring are visualized in real time and eventually used by the personnel of the DCP for immediate reactions. Volcanic risk was also structurally reduced by the construction of a new pier to facilitate rapid evacuation of Ginostra village and the planning and implementation of new walking trails and shelters at the top of the mountain. The shelters, six in total, of moderate size, were designed to resist the impact of heavy materials launched by the volcano. The risk mitigation initiatives were completed with the installation of alarm sirens in the two villages, the production and distribution of leaflets, and also by the installation of signs indicating the fastest routes to reach safe waiting areas in case of tsunami. Besides the substantial improvements in the preparedness of the Civil Protection and Stromboli's community to respond effectively to possible future emergencies of the volcano, one of the most important heritages was the elaboration and testing of new protocols and procedures concerning the handling of volcanic emergencies. Although the issues raised during the crisis showed similarities with other volcanic crisis around the world, the role played by the Civil Protection with personnel specifically trained in volcanic problems showed comparatively considerable advantages.

Bertolaso, Guido; De Bernardinis, Bernardo; Cardaci, Chiara; Scalzo, Antonella; Rosi, Mauro

54

Climate risk perception and ex-ante mitigation strategies of rural households in Thailand and Vietnam  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

A major risk factor for rural areas in emerging market economies, such as Thailand and Vietnam, can be attributed to climate change. Adoption of effective ex-ante mitigation strategies is a function of socio-economic household and location characteristics including, among others, the decision makers' perceptions of risk. This study aims to analyze both the determinants of climate-related risk perception and its influence on the choice of ex-ante mitigation strategies. In the context of the DF...

Vo?lker, Marc; Tongruksawattana, Songporne; Hardeweg, Bernd; Waibel, Hermann

2011-01-01

55

Unacceptable Risk: Earthquake Hazard Mitigation in One California School District. Hazard Mitigation Case Study.  

Science.gov (United States)

Earthquakes are a perpetual threat to California's school buildings. School administrators must be aware that hazard mitigation means much more than simply having a supply of water bottles in the school; it means getting everyone involved in efforts to prevent tragedies from occurring in school building in the event of an earthquake. The PTA in…

California State Office of Emergency Services, Sacramento.

56

Atmospheric Effects on InSAR Measurements and Their Mitigation  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is a powerful technology for observing the Earth surface, especially for mapping the Earth's topography and deformations. InSAR measurements are however often significantly affected by the atmosphere as the radar signals propagate through the atmosphere whose state varies both in space and in time. Great efforts have been made in recent years to better understand the properties of the atmospheric effects and to develop methods for mitigating th...

Xiao-li Ding; Zhi-wei Li; Jian-jun Zhu; Guang-cai Feng; Jiang-ping Long

2008-01-01

57

Urban flood risk mitigation: from vulnerability assessment to resilient city  

Science.gov (United States)

Urban flood risk mitigation: from vulnerability assessment to resilient city Bruno Barroca1, Damien Serre2 1Laboratory of Urban Engineering, Environment and Building (L G U E H) - Université de Marne-la-Vallée - Pôle Ville, 5, Bd Descartes - Bâtiment Lavoisier - 77454 Marne la Vallée Cedex 2 - France 2City of Paris Engineering School, Construction - Environment Department, 15 rue Fénelon, 75010 Paris, France In France, as in Europe and more generally throughout the world, river floods have been increasing in frequency and severity over the last ten years, and there are more instances of rivers bursting their banks, aggravating the impact of the flooding of areas supposedly protected by flood defenses. Despite efforts made to well maintain the flood defense assets, we often observe flood defense failures leading to finally increase flood risk in protected area during major flood events. Furthermore, flood forecasting models, although they benefit continuous improvements, remain partly inaccurate due to uncertainties populated all along data calculation processes. These circumstances obliged stakeholders and the scientific communities to manage flood risk by integrating new concepts like stakes management, vulnerability assessments and more recently urban resilience development. Definitively, the goal is to reduce flood risk by managing of course flood defenses and improving flood forecasting models, but also stakes and vulnerability of flooded areas to achieve urban resilience face to flood events. Vulnerability to flood is essentially concentrated in urban areas. Assessing vulnerability of a city is very difficult. Indeed, urban area is a complex system composed by a sum of technical sub-systems as complex as the urban area itself. Assessing city vulnerability consists in talking into account each sub system vulnerability and integrating all direct and indirect impacts generally depending from city shape and city spatial organization. At this time, although some research activities have been undertaken, there are no specific methods and tools to assess flood vulnerability at the scale of the city. Indeed, by studying literature we can list some vulnerability indicators and a few Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. But generally indicators and GIS are not developed specifically at the city scale: often a regional scale is used. Analyzing vulnerability at this scale needs more accurate and formalized indicators and GIS tools. The second limit of existing GIS is temporal: even if vulnerability could be assessed and localized through GIS, such tools cannot assist city managers in their decision to efficiency recover after a severe flood event. Due to scale and temporal limits, methods and tools available to assess urban vulnerability need large improvements. Talking into account all these considerations and limits, our research is focusing on: • vulnerability indicators design; • recovery scenarios design; • GIS for city vulnerability assessment and recovery scenarios. Dealing with vulnerability indicators, the goal is to design a set of indicators of city sub systems. Sub systems are seen like assets of high value and complex and interdependent infrastructure networks (i.e. power supplies, communications, water, transport etc.). The infrastructure networks are critical for the continuity of economic activities as well as for the people's basic living needs. Their availability is also required for fast and effective recovery after flood disasters. The severity of flood damage therefore largely depends on the degree that both high value assets and critical urban infrastructure are affected, either directly or indirectly. To face the challenge of designing indicators, a functional model of the city system (and sub systems) has to be built to analyze the system response to flood solicitation. Then, a coherent and an efficient set of vulnerability of indicators could be built up. With such methods city stakeholders will be informed on how and how much their systems are vulnerable. It is a first level of inform

Serre, D.; Barroca, B.

2009-04-01

58

Special Issue: Risk Management Challenges: Mitigate the Risk from Natural Hazards  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Within minutes of the March 2011 earthquake in Japan, news media provided unprecedented coverage of an unfolding natural catastrophe. Events such as this place natural disasters firmly in the public eye but only for a short time. It falls to the research community to learn the lessons offered by these events and turn them into opportunities for developing more effective risk management and mitigation strategies and identifying the factors that contribute to the vulnerability and resilience of communities and response and recovery agencies. Disasters such as the Japanese tsunami also highlight the ever-present need for systematic, rigorous research into the risk posed by natural hazards and how these risks can be managed. Of course it is vital to ensure that the findings from such research endeavours are disseminated to those who can use the findings.

Douglas Paton

2011-07-01

59

40 CFR 93.164 - Inter-precursor mitigation measures and offsets.  

Science.gov (United States)

...2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Inter-precursor mitigation measures and offsets. 93...Implementation Plans § 93.164 Inter-precursor mitigation measures and offsets...offsets or mitigation measures of different precursors of the same criteria pollutant,...

2010-07-01

60

Loss-Based Risk Measures  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Starting from the requirement that risk measures of financial portfolios should be based on their losses, not their gains, we define the notion of loss-based risk measure and study the properties of this class of risk measures. We characterize loss-based risk measures by a representation theorem and give examples of such risk measures. We then discuss the statistical robustness of estimators of loss-based risk measures: we provide a general criterion for qualitative robustness of risk estimat...

Cont, Rama; Deguest, Romain; He, Xuedong

2011-01-01

 
 
 
 
61

Risk mitigation strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A basic requirement for ITER equipment to meet is a high level of reliability, because ITER operation time is precious and radioactive operation leaves limited scope for repair. In order to reduce the risk of failure during ITER operation an effective risk mitigation strategy is necessary. This paper presents such strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher (ECUPL). A preliminary ECUPL risk analysis identifies possible failure modes. A probabilistic risk assessment quantifies the risk of failure using a 4 x 4 impact-likelihood matrix. Impact is quantified through technical, cost and schedule elements. Likelihood depends on the risk mitigation strategy adopted. A cost benefit analysis determines the most cost effective risk mitigation strategy. An essential element in risk mitigation is the testing of equipment prior to installation on the ITER machine. This paper argues the need for low- and highpower millimetre wave tests carried out on the fully assembled ECUPL. It presents a conceptual design for a dedicated on-site test bed that can handle 2 of 8 microwave beams at 2 MW long pulse operation.

Goede, A.P.H., E-mail: A.P.H.Goede@Rijnhuizen.nl [FOM-Institute for Plasma Physics Rijnhuizen, Association EURATOM-FOM, Partner in the Trilateral Euregio Cluster, PO Box 1207, 3430 BE Nieuwegein (Netherlands); Bongers, W.A.; Elzendoorn, B.S.Q.; Graswinckel, M.F.; Baar, M.R. de [FOM-Institute for Plasma Physics Rijnhuizen, Association EURATOM-FOM, Partner in the Trilateral Euregio Cluster, PO Box 1207, 3430 BE Nieuwegein (Netherlands)

2010-12-15

62

Risk mitigation strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A basic requirement for ITER equipment to meet is a high level of reliability, because ITER operation time is precious and radioactive operation leaves limited scope for repair. In order to reduce the risk of failure during ITER operation an effective risk mitigation strategy is necessary. This paper presents such strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher (ECUPL). A preliminary ECUPL risk analysis identifies possible failure modes. A probabilistic risk assessment quantifies the risk of failure using a 4 x 4 impact-likelihood matrix. Impact is quantified through technical, cost and schedule elements. Likelihood depends on the risk mitigation strategy adopted. A cost benefit analysis determines the most cost effective risk mitigation strategy. An essential element in risk mitigation is the testing of equipment prior to installation on the ITER machine. This paper argues the need for low- and highpower millimetre wave tests carried out on the fully assembled ECUPL. It presents a conceptual design for a dedicated on-site test bed that can handle 2 of 8 microwave beams at 2 MW long pulse operation.

2010-12-01

63

Risk and return of project-based climate change mitigation: a portfolio approach  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

We present a framework for evaluating the risks of investments in climate change mitigation projects to generate emission credits. Risk factors that influence the quantity of emission credits are identified for six project types. Since not all project types are affected by the same factors, diversification is a viable risk reduction strategy. We propose a methodology for quantifying risk and return of such investments, discuss data requirements, and illustrate it using a sample of voluntary projects. In our sample, the returns of an optimally diversified low-risk portfolio are up to 10 times higher than those of single projects, holding risk exposure constant. (author)

Laurikka, H. [Helsinki University of Technology (Finland). Laboratory for Energy Economics and Power Plant Engineering; Springer, U. [ECOPLAN, Bern (Switzerland)

2003-10-01

64

Mitigating the effects of measurement noise on Granger causality  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Computing Granger causal relations among bivariate experimentally observed time series has received increasing attention over the past few years. Such causal relations, if correctly estimated, can yield significant insights into the dynamical organization of the system being investigated. Since experimental measurements are inevitably contaminated by noise, it is thus important to understand the effects of such noise on Granger causality estimation. The first goal of this paper is to provide an analytical and numerical analysis of this problem. Specifically, we show that, due to noise contamination (1) spurious causality between two measured variables can arise and (2) true causality can be suppressed. The second goal of the paper is to provide a denoising strategy to mitigate this problem. Specifically, we propose a denoising algorithm based on the combined use of the Kalman filter theory and the expectation-maximization algorithm. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the denoising approach

2007-03-01

65

Mitigating the effects of measurement noise on Granger causality  

CERN Document Server

Computing Granger causal relations among bivariate experimentally observed time series has received increasing attention over the past few years. Such causal relations, if correctly estimated, can yield significant insights into the dynamical organization of the system being investigated. Since experimental measurements are inevitably contaminated by noise, it is thus important to understand the effects of such noise on Granger causality estimation. The first goal of this paper is to provide an analytical and numerical analysis of this problem. Specifically, we show that, due to noise contamination, (1) spurious causality between two measured variables can arise and (2) true causality can be suppressed. The second goal of the paper is to provide a denoising strategy to mitigate this problem. Specifically, we propose a denoising algorithm based on the combined use of the Kalman filter theory and the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the den...

Nalatore, Hariharan; Ding, Mingzhou

2007-01-01

66

Atmospheric Effects on InSAR Measurements and Their Mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is a powerful technology for observing the Earth surface, especially for mapping the Earth's topography and deformations. InSAR measurements are however often significantly affected by the atmosphere as the radar signals propagate through the atmosphere whose state varies both in space and in time. Great efforts have been made in recent years to better understand the properties of the atmospheric effects and to develop methods for mitigating the effects. This paper provides a systematic review of the work carried out in this area. The basic principles of atmospheric effects on repeat-pass InSAR are first introduced. The studies on the properties of the atmospheric effects, including the magnitudes of the effects determined in the various parts of the world, the spectra of the atmospheric effects, the isotropic properties and the statistical distributions of the effects, are then discussed. The various methods developed for mitigating the atmospheric effects are then reviewed, including the methods that are based on PSInSAR processing, the methods that are based on interferogram modeling, and those that are based on external data such as GPS observations, ground meteorological data, and satellite data including those from the MODIS and MERIS. Two examples that use MODIS and MERIS data respectively to calibrate atmospheric effects on InSAR are also given.

Ding, Xiao-li; Li, Zhi-wei; Zhu, Jian-jun; Feng, Guang-cai; Long, Jiang-ping

2008-01-01

67

Atmospheric Effects on InSAR Measurements and Their Mitigation  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR is a powerful technology for observing the Earth surface, especially for mapping the Earth's topography and deformations. InSAR measurements are however often significantly affected by the atmosphere as the radar signals propagate through the atmosphere whose state varies both in space and in time. Great efforts have been made in recent years to better understand the properties of the atmospheric effects and to develop methods for mitigating the effects. This paper provides a systematic review of the work carried out in this area. The basic principles of atmospheric effects on repeat-pass InSAR are first introduced. The studies on the properties of the atmospheric effects, including the magnitudes of the effects determined in the various parts of the world, the spectra of the atmospheric effects, the isotropic properties and the statistical distributions of the effects, are then discussed. The various methods developed for mitigating the atmospheric effects are then reviewed, including the methods that are based on PSInSAR processing, the methods that are based on interferogram modeling, and those that are based on external data such as GPS observations, ground meteorological data, and satellite data including those from the MODIS and MERIS. Two examples that use MODIS and MERIS data respectively to calibrate atmospheric effects on InSAR are also given.

Jiang-ping Long

2008-09-01

68

Viewing Risk Measures as information  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Regulation and Risk management in banks depend on underlying risk measures. In general this is the only purpose that is seen for risk measures. In this paper, we suggest that the reporting of risk measures can be used to determine the loss distribution function for a financial entity. We demonstrate that a lack of sufficient information can lead to ambiguous risk situations. We give examples, showing the need for the reporting of multiple risk measures in order to determine a bank's loss dist...

Guegan, Dominique; Tarrant, Wayne

2011-01-01

69

Land Use Scenario Modeling for Flood Risk Mitigation  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

It is generally accepted that flood risk has been increasing in Europe in the last decades. Accordingly, it becomes a priority to better understand its drivers and mechanisms. Flood risk is evaluated on the basis of three factors: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. If one of these factors increases, then so does the risk. Land use change models used for ex-ante assessment of spatial trends provide planners with powerful tools for territorial decision making. However, until recently this type...

Barredo, Jose? I.; Guy Engelen

2010-01-01

70

Measuring Systemic Risk  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution's contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases with the institution's leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system's loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are â??taxedâ?? based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads.

Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

2012-01-01

71

Earth sciences, GIS and geomatics for natural hazards assessment and risks mitigation: a civil protection perspective  

Science.gov (United States)

Geo-information and remote sensing are proper tools to enhance functional strategies for increasing awareness on natural hazards and risks and for supporting research and operational activities devoted to disaster reduction. An improved Earth Sciences knowledge coupled with Geomatics advanced technologies has been developed by the joint research group and applied by the ITHACA (Information Technology for Humanitarian Assistance, Cooperation and Action) centre, within its partnership with the UN World Food Programme (WFP) with the goal of reducing human, social, economic and environmental losses due to natural hazards and related disasters. By cooperating with local and regional authorities (Municipalities, Centro Funzionale of the Aosta Valley, Civil Protection Agency of Regione Piemonte), data on natural hazards and risks have been collected, compared to national and global data, then interpreted for helping communities and civil protection agencies of sensitive mountain regions to make strategic choices and decisions to better mitigation and adaption measures. To enhance the application of GIS and Remote-sensing technologies for geothematic mapping of geological and geomorphological risks of mountain territories of Europe and Developing Countries, research activities led to the collection and evaluation of data from scientific literature and historical technical archives, for the definition of predisposing/triggering factors and evolutionary processes of natural instability phenomena (landslides, floods, storms, …) and for the design and implementation of early-warning and early-impact systems. Geodatabases, Remote Sensing and Mobile-GIS applications were developed to perform analysis of : 1) large climate-related disaster (Hurricane Mitch, Central America), by the application of remote sensing techniques, either for early warning or mitigation measures at the national and international scale; 2) distribution of slope instabilities at the regional scale (Aosta Valley, NW-Italy), for preventing and recovering measures; 3) geological and geomorphological controlling factors of seismicity, to provide microzonation maps and scenarios for co-seismic response of instable zones (Dronero, NW- Italian Alps); 4) earthquake effects on ground and infrastructures, in order to register early assessment for awareness situations and for compile damage inventories (Asti-Alessandria seismic events, 2000, 2001, 2003). The research results has been able to substantiate early warning models by structuring geodatabases on natural disasters, and to support humanitarian relief and disaster management activities by creating and testing SRG2, a mobile-GIS application for field-data collection on natural hazards and risks.

Perotti, Luigi; Conte, Riccardo; Lanfranco, Massimo; Perrone, Gianluigi; Giardino, Marco; Ratto, Sara

2010-05-01

72

INTERNAL AUDIT AND ITS APPROACH TO THE RISK MITIGATION  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This thesis is analyzing the modern role of the internal audit in corporate(mainly banking structures. It describes the changes made in the social role ofauditing during the years and emphasizes the internal audit´s risk managementfunction, rather than just control function. Attention is given to the methodology used,especially to the currently most widespread risk-based auditing approach. Also one ofthe most recent approaches to auditing – so called continuous auditing - is brieflydescribed and the possibilities of its implementation into the risk-based framework areoutlined.

VADIM BENEŠ

2012-01-01

73

Analysis of Contributing Factors to Desertification and Mitigation Measures in Basilicata Region  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Soil, vegetation, climate and management are the main factors affecting environmental sensitivity to degradation, through their intrinsic characteristics or by their interaction with the landscape. Different levels of degradation risks may be observed in response to particular combinations of the aforementioned factors. For instance, the combination of inappropriate management practices and intrinsically weak soil conditions will result in a degradation of the environment of a severe level, while the combination of the same type of management with better soil conditions may lead to negligible degradation. The objective of this study was to identify the factors responsible for land degradation processes in Basilicata and to simulate through the adoption of the SALUS soil-plant-atmosphere system model potential measures to mitigate the processes. Environmental sensitive areas to desertification were first identified using the Environmental Sensitive Areas (ESAs procedure. An analysis for identifying the weight that each contributing factor (climate, soil, vegetation, socio-economic management had on the ESA was carried out and successively the SALUS model was executed to identify the best agronomic practices. The best agronomic management practice was found to be the one that minimized soil disturbance and increased soil organic carbon. Two alternative scenarios with improved soil quality and subsequently improving soil water holding capacity were used as mitigation measures. The new ESA were recalculated and the effects of the mitigation suggested by the model were assessed.

Tien-Yin Chou

2010-10-01

74

Taming Trojan Horses: Identifying and Mitigating Corporate Social Responsibility Risks  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Organizations are exposed to increasing pressures from their constituents to integrate corporate social responsibility (CSR) principles into their ongoing business practices. But accepting new and potentially open-ended commitments is not a harmless exercise, and companies may well expose themselves to serious risks when embracing such principles. To identify these risks, we conducted two naturalistic studies: one exploratory, the other corroborative. The results show that CSR adoption is ass...

2007-01-01

75

A NOVEL RISK ANALYSIS AND MITIGATION METHOD IN DISTRIBUTED BANKING SYSTEM  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The paper introduces a Fractional Reverse Banking like Distributed Banking System and the infrastructure is becoming more and more complex, and connected to large number of security issues and amount of risks to readiness assets are increasing. This is done to expand the economy by freeing up capital that can be loaned out to other parties. Most countries operate under this type of system. Hence, the process of identification, analysis, and mitigation of Information Security risks has assumed utmost importance. This quality paper grants combination of quantitative and qualitative information security risk analysis methodology for the system. The proposed methodology incorporates three approaches. Asset identifying approach identifies assets and their risk. Partitioned approach identifies risk factor for all the requirements in an asset depending on value. Exhaustive approach identifies the threat-vulnerability pair responsible for an asset associate with risk and computes a risk factor corresponding to each security property for every asset. The assets are classified into three different risk zones namely high, average and low risk zone. For utmost-risk assets, management may install high cost infrastructure to safeguard an asset; for average-risk assets, management may apply security policies, guidelines and procedures; for under risks management may invest very less for assets. In this paper a new method has been proposed to analyse and mitigate the potential problems in Distributed Banking System.

K. V. D. Kiran

2013-09-01

76

Using Derivative Contracts to Mitigate Water Utility Financial Risks  

Science.gov (United States)

As developing new supply capacity has become increasingly expensive and difficult to permit, utilities have become more reliant on temporary demand management programs, such as outdoor water use restrictions, for ensuring reliability during drought. However, a significant fraction of water utility income is often derived from the volumetric sale of water, and such restrictions can lead to substantial revenue losses. Given that many utilities set prices at levels commensurate with recovering costs, these revenue losses can leave them financially vulnerable to budgetary shortfalls during drought. This work explores approaches for mitigating drought-related revenue losses through the use of third-party financial insurance contracts based on weather derivatives. Two different types of contracts are developed, and their efficacy is compared against two more traditional forms of financial hedging used by water utilities: drought surcharges and contingency funds (i.e. self insurance). Strategies involving each of these approaches, as well as their use in combination, are applied under conditions facing the water utility serving Durham, North Carolina. A multi-reservoir model provides information on the scale and timing of droughts, with the financial effects of these events simulated using detailed data derived from utility billing records. Results suggest that third-party derivative contracts, either independently or in combination with more traditional hedging tools (i.e. surcharges, contingency funds), can provide an effective means of reducing a utility's financial vulnerability to drought.

Characklis, G. W.; Zeff, H.

2012-12-01

77

Information and education as a basis of risk mitigation for the citizens of Catalonia  

Science.gov (United States)

The General Directorate for Civil Protection of the Catalan Government is in charge of the drawing up and validation of plans that identify risk and establish a joint system of response actions to minimize the consequences of damages caused by emergencies. The risks covered are natural (fire, snow, flooding, heat,...) and human (chemical industry, transport of dangerous goods,...) ones. In the special case of flooding, an Emergency Flood Plan for Catalonia (INUNCAT) exists. Its aim is to minimize the effects and damages to people, property or the environment due to floods within the region of Catalonia. In the following, the actions on active prevention currently realized by Civil Protection in this Mediterranean region regarding risk mitigation of flooding are described. Special emphasis is laid on the prevention of risk situations through advanced information and education which aim at diminishing the vulnerability of the population. The preparedness of the population to face a serious flooding depends highly on the level of the citizens’ self-protection. Therefore the collection and dissemination of recommendations on adequate behaviour is crucial. The Catalan Government realizes different activities to foster the understanding and the correct behaviour of the citizens in case of flooding. Informative sessions to target groups, opinion studies, mass media communication and itinerant exhibitions are some of the elements applied to increase social consciousness and mitigate the vulnerability of the population. Among these, sensitization campaigns play a crucial role. A coherent system of information and education is adhered to these campaigns. Informative material (posters, leaflets, web sites) and sessions are part of the activities which are addressed to different social group and aim at rising the population’s awareness on the risk of flooding. Multidisciplinary presentations and expert speeches on adequate behaviour are given to stakeholders in those areas which are potentially affected by flooding or which are situated downriver of big water reservoirs. These stakeholders act as multipliers to pass on the recommendations emitted by the Catalan Government. Mass communication is a means of reaching a wide part of the population. TV spots, radio announcements and newspaper advertisements on correct behaviour in a certain emergency do already exist for certain risks, but are still missing in the case of flooding. The realization of opinion studies contribute to a better understanding of the citizens’ risk perception. The opinion study includes questions like: What do you know about recommendations on behaviour during flooding? or What would you do if you found themselves in an emergency? When contrasting the results, the effectiveness of existing campaigns is put on proof and the content and canal of future campaigns can be determined. The General Directorate for Civil Protection has created an itinerant exhibition as an additional activity to increase the populations’ consciousness on the potential risks in the Mediterranean region of Catalonia. It includes the main preventive measures the citizens have to take in case of an emergency and depicts recommendations for self-protection. The exhibition is displayed at municipal level and is designated to approach the maximum number of citizens. The participation in European projects, such as RINAMED, is a way to increase the interchange of know-how and strengthen international communication. In the case of RINAMED the objective was to provide the citizens living in the Mediterranean areas with a better knowledge of the natural risks. The joint effort of the different member regions contributed to establish a common frame of prevention and information in order to increase risk preparedness in the Mediterranean area. For future improvement and advances regarding educational and informative tasks, one of the aims is to obtain direct involvement of the population and to reach specific target groups through opinion leaders. Moreover the need to build partnership or stre

Guamis, J.; Burckhart, K.; Grau, A.

2009-09-01

78

Safety Planning Intervention: A Brief Intervention to Mitigate Suicide Risk  

Science.gov (United States)

The usual care for suicidal patients who are seen in the emergency department (ED) and other emergency settings is to assess level of risk and refer to the appropriate level of care. Brief psychosocial interventions such as those administered to promote lower alcohol intake or to reduce domestic violence in the ED are not typically employed for…

Stanley, Barbara; Brown, Gregory K.

2012-01-01

79

Effect of objective risk on key actor support for seismic mitigation policy  

Science.gov (United States)

This article investigates the policy formulation process related to seismic hazard mitigation. A preemergent policy climate is identified by focusing on key actors, assessments of seismic risk, and policy alternatives. Two major factors were found to affect key actor support for policy development: (a) the objective risk to which their constituent community is exposed, and (b) their elective or appointive position at the local level of government.

Mushkatel, Alvin H.; Nigg, Joanne M.

1987-01-01

80

Risk Measures and Nonlinear Expectations  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Coherent and convex risk measures, Choquet expectation and Peng’s g-expectation are all generalizations of mathematical expectation. All have been widely used to assess financial riskiness under uncertainty. In this paper, we investigate differences amongst these risk measures and expectations. For this purpose, we constrain our attention of coherent and convex risk measures, and Choquet expectation to the domain of g-expectation. Some differences among coherent and convex risk measures and Choquet expectations are accounted for in the framework of g-expectations. We show that in the family of convex risk measures, only coherent risk measures satisfy Jensen’s inequality. In mathematical finance, risk measures and Choquet expectations are typically used in the pricing of contingent claims over families of measures. The different risk measures will typically yield different pricing. In this paper, we show that the coherent pricing is always less than the corresponding Choquet pricing. This property and inequality fails in general when one uses pricing by convex risk measures. We also discuss the relation between static risk measure and dynamic risk measure in the framework of g-expectations. We show that if g-expectations yield coherent (convex risk measures then the corresponding conditional g-expectations or equivalently the dynamic risk measure is also coherent (convex. To prove these results, we establish a new converse of the comparison theorem of g-expectations.

Zengjing Chen

2013-08-01

 
 
 
 
81

The minimum balance at risk: A proposal to mitigate the systemic risks posed by money market funds  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This paper introduces a proposal for money market fund (MMF) reform that could mitigate systemic risks arising from these funds by protecting shareholders, such as retail investors, who do not redeem quickly from distressed funds. Our proposal would require that a small fraction of each MMF investor's recent balances, called the minimum balance at risk (MBR), be demarcated to absorb losses if the fund is liquidated. Most regular transactions in the fund would be unaffected, but redemptions of...

2012-01-01

82

People are the problem and the solution: characterizing wildfire risk and risk mitigation in a wildland-urban intermix area in the Southern Gulf Islands  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

People play an important role in both causing and mitigating risk in forest-urban intermix areas. We developed a wildfire risk assessment model that characterizes the nature and causes of wildfire risk and evaluates the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies for a wildland-urban intermix area in the southern Gulf Islands, British Columbia, Canada. The risk maps produced highlight the significance of both human-caused fire ignitions and residential developments’ vulnerability to wildfir...

Tutsch, Matthew Stephen

2009-01-01

83

Supply Chain Risk Management : Identification, Evaluation and Mitigation Techniques  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Supply chains have expanded rapidly over the decades, with the aim to increase productivity, lower costs and fulfil demands in emerging markets. The increasing complexity in a supply chain hinders visibility and consequently reduces one’s control over the process. Cases of disruption such as the ones faced by Ericsson and Enron, have shown that a risk event occurring at one point of the supply chain can greatly affect other members, when the disruption is not properly controlled. Supply cha...

Musa, S. Nurmaya

2012-01-01

84

Risks evaluation and mitigation in the new energetic markets  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The central issue of debate was the need to align the energy sector's options and organization with changing global patterns of economic and social development, characterized by the increasing role played by the private sector, greater integration in the world economy, and new economic and social priorities such as efficiency, decentralization, deregulation, and a closer attention to environmental issues. The aim of the work was to evaluate the Brazilian electric power market risks and the their agents' relationship after the privatization advent

1999-12-02

85

VALUE AT RISK - CORPORATE RISK MEASUREMENT  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The notion of 'risk' is used in a number of sciences. The Faculty of Law studies the risk depending on its legality. The Accident Theory applies this term to describe the damage and the disasters. One can find studies on the risks in the works of psychology, philosophy, medicine and within each of these areas the study of the risk is based on the given science subject and, of course, on their methods and approaches. Such a variety of risk study is explained by the diversity of this phenomenon. Under the market economy conditions, the risk is an essential component of any economic agent management policy, of the approach developed by this one, a strategy that depends almost entirely on individual ability and capacity to anticipate his evolution and to exploit his opportunities, assuming a so-called 'risk of business failure.' There are several ways to measure the risks in projects, one of the most used methods to measure this being the Value at Risk(VaR. Value at Risk (VaR was made famous by JP Morgan in the mid 1990s, by introducing the RiskMetrics approach, and hence, by far, has been sanctioned by several Governing Bodies throughout the world bank. In short, it measures the value of risk capital stocks in a given period at a certain probability of loss. This measurement can be modified for risk applications through, for example, the potential loss values affirmation in a certain amount of time during the economic life of the project- clearly, a project with a lower VaR is better. It should be noted that it is not always possible or advisable for a company to limit itself to the remote analysis of each risk because the risks and their effects are interdependent and constitute a system .In addition, there are risks which, in combination with other risks, tend to produce effects which they would not have caused by themselves and risks that tend to offset and even cancel each other out.

Anis Cecilia-Nicoleta

2011-12-01

86

PWR severe accident mitigation measures: The French point of view  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

French studies have from early on considered the fact that, despite all precautions taken, the possibility of severe accidents can not be absolutely excluded; these accidents include meltdown, and a more or less significant loss, early or late, of containment. For a given scenario, one can almost always imagine a yet severer scenario by postulating additional failures, but it is obvious that as the severity increases the probability of occurrence tends to zero. It does not, however, appear reasonable to set any cut-off point for excluding scenarios of very low probability. First, the higher the improbability of a scenario, the greater the uncertainty in the calculation, with the result that the calculation is not very meaningful. Secondly, and more importantly, this approach ignores the essential problem of accident situation management. From the outset, French studies have been focused on controlling the development of these situations and mitigating their consequences by means of a series of appropriate actions involving, on the one hand, optimum use of resources available, and on the other, taking measures to protect the population. To attempt to prevent an initial incident from degenerating into a severe accident leading, if the proper actions were not taken, to meltdown, Electricite de France has proposed a new operating procedure based on the characterization of every possible cooling state of the core. 4 tabs., 4 figs

1990-10-14

87

Measurement of risks  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Risk assessment is considered from philosophical, statistical, and comparative viewpoints. Assessment methods are examined and topics are discussed ranging from statistical inference or risks to such areas as cancer risks; comparative risks of energy sources; hazards of inhaled contaminants; and contaminated drinking water. (JMT)

Berg, G.G.; Maillie, H.D. (eds.)

1981-01-01

88

An Efficient Approach towards Mitigating Soft Errors Risks  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Smaller feature size, higher clock frequency and lower power consumption are of core concerns of today’snano-technology, which has been resulted by continuous downscaling of CMOS technologies. The resultant‘device shrinking’ reduces the soft error tolerance of the VLSI circuits, as very little energy is needed tochange their states. Safety critical systems are very sensitive to soft errors. A bit flip due to soft error canchange the value of critical variable and consequently the system control flow can completely be changedwhich leads to system failure. To minimize soft error risks, a novel methodology is proposed to detect andrecover from soft errors considering only ‘critical code blocks’ and ‘critical variables’ rather thanconsidering all variables and/or blocks in the whole program. The proposed method shortens space andtime overhead in comparison to existing dominant approaches.

Muhammad Sheikh Sadi

2011-10-01

89

An Efficient Approach towards Mitigating Soft Errors Risks  

CERN Document Server

Smaller feature size, higher clock frequency and lower power consumption are of core concerns of today's nano-technology, which has been resulted by continuous downscaling of CMOS technologies. The resultant 'device shrinking' reduces the soft error tolerance of the VLSI circuits, as very little energy is needed to change their states. Safety critical systems are very sensitive to soft errors. A bit flip due to soft error can change the value of critical variable and consequently the system control flow can completely be changed which leads to system failure. To minimize soft error risks, a novel methodology is proposed to detect and recover from soft errors considering only 'critical code blocks' and 'critical variables' rather than considering all variables and/or blocks in the whole program. The proposed method shortens space and time overhead in comparison to existing dominant approaches.

Sadi, Muhammad Sheikh; Uddin, Md Nazim; Jürjens, Jan

2011-01-01

90

Building damage classification and loss assessment for risk mitigation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The objective of this paper is to present a uniform procedure for examining and reporting building damage both in urban and in rural areas so that a data bank on earthquake effects might be established and used for the effective estimation of economic losses. Assessment of direct economic losses is illustrated by a summary presentation of earthquake damage classification performed on 16,478 residential buildings and on all 57,640 buildings damaged by the earthquake of July 26, 1963 in Skopje and April 15, 1979 in Montenegro earthquakes, respectively. Use of these methods and procedures will yield an adequate volume of data to assist community and national authorities in the elaboration and performance of effective seismic risk reduction programmes. (author). 19 refs, 6 figs, 5 tabs

1988-10-17

91

Risk mitigation in the implementation of AMTs: A guiding framework for future  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The fast industrial development increases different types of risks for the industries. Many risk factors are inherent in the implementation of advanced manufacturing technologies (AMTs. Industries are developing methodologies for risk prevention and protection. The present research focuses to identify various risks that could influence the implementation of AMTs, and develop a framework to mitigate them. For this framework, interpretive structural modeling(ISM has been used to depict the relationship and priority among the various risks. This research provides a path for managers and indicates the dominant risks on the basis of higher driving power. Also, this research classifies the relationship among various risks in AMTs implementation according to their driving power and dependence. The risks have been categorized into four categories as autonomous risks, linkage risks, dependent risks and independent risks. The proposed hierarchal model would help the management to effectively handle and develop strategies against the risks and hence new and latest technologies can be adopted with ease and effectiveness.

Bhaskar Nagar

2012-04-01

92

Chrun risk mitigation models for student’s behavior  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

In order to prevent the phenomenon of abandonment (churn), the objective of this paper is to analyze university student’s careers. The results of our research will be used to plan activities of collective or single tutoring and to measure the efficiency and efficacy for specific courses. In particular, the analysis considers years of history for two faculties in the University of Pavia: psychology and ...

Silvia Figini; Emanuele De Quarti; Paolo Giudici

2009-01-01

93

PWR severe accident mitigation measures, the french point of view  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

French studies have early considered the fact that, despite all the precautions taken, the possibility of severe accidents cannot be absolutely excluded; these accidents include core meltdown and a more or less significant loss, at an early or later stage, of the confinement of the radioactive substances in the containment. For a given scenario, one can almost always imagine a more severe scenario by postulating additional failures, but it is obvious that, as the severity of the imagined scenario increases, the probability of its occurrence tends towards zero. However, it does not appear reasonable to attempt to set a probability threshold below which the scenarios should be excluded. First of all, the higher the improbability of the scenarios, the greater the uncertainty in the calculation of their probability, with the result that the calculation is not very meaningful. Secondly, and more importantly, this approach ignores the essential problem of accident situation management. From the outset, French studies have been focused on controlling the development of these situations and mitigating their consequences by means of a series of appropriate actions involving, on the one hand, optimum use of the resources available in the installation during the course of the accident and, on the other hand, the taking of protective measures for the population. To attempt to prevent an initial event to degenerate into a severe accident leading to core meltdown if the proper actions are not taken, Electricite de France has proposed a new operating procedure based on the characterization of every possible cooling state of the core

1990-10-14

94

Ensuring Success of Adaptive Control Research Through Project Lifecycle Risk Mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

Lessons Learne: 1. Design-out unnecessary risk to prevent excessive mitigation management during flight. 2. Consider iterative checkouts to confirm or improve human factor characteristics. 3. Consider the total flight test profile to uncover unanticipated human-algorithm interactions. 4. Consider test card cadence as a metric to assess test readiness. 5. Full-scale flight test is critical to development, maturation, and acceptance of adaptive control laws for operational use.

Pavlock, Kate M.

2011-01-01

95

Project management best practices: forging win-win partnerships and mitigating power project risk  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper discusses aspects of project management to mitigate power project risk. end-to-end project development involves development phase, permitting phase, implementation phase, and operational phase. Each phase involves a number of different elements. In renewable energy project good management requires maintaining project discipline and schedule throughout all phases. Project success requires commercial competitiveness, fuel availability, power sales contracts, stake holder support, permitting, effective execution, construction and good technical performance

2007-05-28

96

Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations  

Science.gov (United States)

An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.

2010-01-01

97

A multiple stage approach to mitigate the risks of telecommunication equipment under free air cooling conditions  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Highlights: ? Analyze the challenges posed by free air cooling (FAC). ? Present a multi-stage process to mitigate the risks of FAC. ? Propose a prognostics-based method to mitigate risks in data centers in operation. ? Present a case study to show the prognostics-based method implementation. - Abstract: The telecommunication industry is concerned about the energy costs of its operating infrastructure and the associated greenhouse gas emissions. At present, more than half of the total energy consumption of data centers is devoted to the power and cooling infrastructure that supports electronic equipment. One method of reducing energy consumption is an approach called “free air cooling,” where ambient air is used to cool the equipment directly, thereby reducing the energy consumed in cooling and conditioning the air. For example, Intel demonstrated free air cooling in a 10-megawatt (MW) data center, showing a reduction in energy use and savings of US$2.87 million annually. However, the impacts of this approach on the performance and reliability of telecommunication equipment need to be identified. The implementation of free air cooling changes the operating environment, including temperature and humidity, which may have a significant impact on the performance and reliability of telecom equipment. This paper discusses the challenges posed by free air cooling and presents a multi-stage process for evaluating and mitigating the potential risks arising from this new operating environment.

2012-12-01

98

Outreach Programs, Peer Pressure, and Common Sense: What Motivates Homeowners to Mitigate Wildfire Risk?  

Science.gov (United States)

In recent years, altered forest conditions, climate change, and the increasing numbers of homes built in fire prone areas has meant that wildfires are affecting more people. An important part of minimizing the potential negative impacts of wildfire is engaging homeowners in mitigating the fire hazard on their land. It is therefore important to understand what makes homeowners more or less willing to take action. The research presented here comes from a study that interviewed a total of 198 homeowners in six communities in the western United States about the activities they had undertaken to mitigate their fire risk, the factors that contributed to their decisions, and their future intentions. The current paper reports on findings from the first half of the longitudinal study, after 3 years we will return to interview the current homeowner on the same properties to assess maintenance actions and facilitating and limiting factors. Overall we found a body of individuals who understand the fire risk, are taking numerous mitigation actions, and think that these actions have reduced their risk. These homeowners typically did not expect the government to do it for them: they wanted information about what to do and, in some cases, assistance with the work, but saw taking care of their property primarily as their responsibility. Responses also show that key information sources and motivating factors vary by location and that it is not inherently necessary to have relationships between community members to create defensible space.

McCaffrey, Sarah M.; Stidham, Melanie; Toman, Eric; Shindler, Bruce

2011-09-01

99

Landslide risk mitigation through integrated monitoring and modelling  

Science.gov (United States)

In winter 2008-09, exceptional prolonged rains triggered numerous landslides in Calabria (southern Italy). Among these, a large rock slide was triggered on 28 January 2009 in weathered metamorphic rocks at San Benedetto Ullano (CS), involving fractured and altered migmatitic gneiss and biotitic schist. A detailed geomorphological survey was carried out during the entire phase of mobilization, allowing to recognize the evolution of the phenomenon. A series of benchmarks was promptly placed in correspondence of fractures on the body and along the sides of the landslide, allowing for frequent measurements of surface movements. In addition, a network of real-time monitoring extensometers were implemented at the surface of the landslide, combined with a meteorological station. The survey site and the data of the monitoring system allowed, from the early stages of activation of the phenomenon, to implement a support system to handle the emergency. In the following months, a clear retrogressive distribution could be identified, coupled with a tendency towards the enlargement of the flanks. In early May, the first crisis ended up. After the arrest of the phenomenon, a geological-technical scheme of the slope could be drawn, also based on data collected through a set of 5 exploratory wells (equipped with 4 inclinometers and 1 piezometer). The landslide mobilized a thickness from 15 to 35 meters along the longitudinal profile. To examine the stability of the slope affected by the landslide, and to quantify the role of fluctuations of the water table in destabilizing the slope, a parametric limit equilibrium analysis was conducted. The analysis confirmed the first interpretation of the process: the first activation of the landslide was expected, in fact, in the central portion of the slope in case, in the same area, the groundwater levels are close to ground level. Between 31 January 31 and 1 February 2010, following a further period of exceptional rainfall, the network of strain gauges promptly evicenced the beginning of a new phase of mobilization of the landslide, accompanied by the opening of cracks along the local and provincial roads. On 10 February, the slope movement led the Civil Protection Authority to issue new evacuation orders and closing the roads. On 11 February, following further rains, a further movement of the landslide body occurred, with severe damage to roads and infrastructure. Overall, this new phase of activation replied the one observed during the crisis started in January 2009, confirming the results of the limit equilibrium analysis. Based on the results of the parametric analysis, the surveillance system could be refined, thanks to a better understanding of the physics of the slope instability. The limit equilibrium analysis was followed by the calibration of a hydrological model, thanks to the availability of dates of activation of the landslide and of rains recorded in the vicinity of the study area. The latest activation of the slope instability took place during the night between 15 and 16 March 2013, again confirming the results of the limit equilibrium analysis and of the hydrological model "SAKe". It should be noted that this activation occurred as a result of rain amounts that are less abundant and prolonged than those of the previous two activations, despite the realization of some engineering works and drainages had been started in the study area to improve slope stability. Further works are still to be made, and a refinement of the stability analyses is in progress to understand the apparent increasing fragility of the considered slope.

Terranova, Oreste Giuseppe; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Iovine, Giulio G. R.

2014-05-01

100

Uncertainty Quantification and Risk Mitigation of CO2 Leakage in Groundwater Aquifers  

Science.gov (United States)

The risk of CO2 leakage into shallow aquifers through various pathways such as faults and abandoned wells is a concern of CO2 geological sequestration. If a leak is detected in an aquifer system, a contingency plan is required to manage the CO2 storage and to protect the groundwater source. Among many remediation and mitigation strategies, the simplest is to stop CO2 leakage at a wellbore. Therefore, it is necessary to address whether and when the CO2 leaks should be sealed, and how much risk can be mitigated. In the presence of various uncertainties, including geological-structure uncertainty and parametric uncertainty, the risk of CO2 leakage into an aquifer needs to be assessed with probabilistic distributions of uncertain parameters. In this study, we developed an integrated model to simulate multiphase flow of CO2 and brine in a deep storage reservoir, through a leaky well at an uncertain location, and subsequently multicomponent reactive transport in a shallow aquifer. Each sub-model covers its domain-specific physics. Uncertainties of geological structure and parameters are considered together with decision variables (CO2 injection rate and mitigation time) for risk assessment of leakage-impacted aquifer volume. High-resolution and less-expensive reduced-order models (ROMs) of risk profiles are approximated as polynomial functions of decision variables and all uncertain parameters. These reduced-order models are then used in the place of computationally-expensive numerical models for future decision-making on if and when the leaky well is sealed. The tradeoff between CO2 storage capacity in the reservoir and the leakage-induced risk in the aquifer is evaluated. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Sun, Y.; Tong, C.; Mansoor, K.; Carroll, S.

2013-12-01

 
 
 
 
101

SILER: Seismic-Initiated events risk mitigation in Lead-cooled Reactors  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

SILER is a Collaborative Project, partially funded by the European Commission, aimed at studying the risk associated to seismic initiated events in Generation IV Heavy Liquid Metal reactors and developing adequate protection measures. The attention is focused on the evaluation of the effects of earthquakes (with particular regards to beyond design seismic events) and to the identification of mitigation strategies, acting both on structures and components design (as well as on the development of seismic isolation devices) which can also have positive effects on economics, leading to an high level of plant design standardization. Attention is also devoted to the identification of plant layout solutions able to avoid risks of radioactive release from both the core and other structures (i.e. the spent fuel storage pools). Specific effort is paid to the development of guidelines and design recommendations for addressing the seismic issue in next generation reactor systems. In addition, consideration will be devoted to transfer the knowledge developed in the project to Generation III advanced systems, in line with the objective of the SNE-TP SRA to support present and future Light Water Reactors and their further development, for which safety issues are key aspects to be addressed. Note, in this respect, that the benefits of base isolation in terms of response to design seismic actions are already widely recognized for Generation III LWRs, along with the possibility of a significant standardization of structural and equipment design. SILER activities started on October 1 st 2011 and are carried out by 18 partners: ENEA (Italy, Coordinator), AREVA NP SAS (France), SCK-CEN (Belgium), FIP Industriale (Italy), MAURER SOHENE (Germany), EC-JRC (Ispra (Italy)), SINTEC (Italy), KTH (Sweden), BOA-BKT (Germany), IDOM (Spain), ANSALDO (Italy), IPUL (Latvia), NUMERIA (Italy), VCE (Austria), SRS (Italy), CEA (France), EA (Spain), NUVIA (France). (authors)

2012-06-24

102

Current issues in dietary acrylamide:formation,mitigation and risk assessment  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Acrylamide (AA) is known as a neurotoxin in humans and it is classified as a probable human carcinogen by the International Agency of Research on Cancer. AA is produced as by-product of the Maillard reaction in starchy foods processed at high temperatures (>120 °C). This review includes the investigation of AA precursors, mechanisms of AA formation and AA mitigation technologies in potato, cereal and coffee products. Additionally, most relevant issues of AA risk assessment are discussed. New technologies tested from laboratory to industrial scale face, as a major challenge, the reduction of AA content of browned food, while still maintaining its attractive organoleptic properties. Reducing sugars such as glucose and fructose are the major contributors to AA in potato-based products. On the other hand, the limiting substrate of AA formation in cereals and coffee is the free amino acid asparagine. For some products the addition of glycine or asparaginase reduces AA formation during baking. Since, for potatoes, the limiting substrate is reducing sugars, increases in sugar content in potatoes during storage then introduce some difficulties and potentially quite large variations in the AA content of the final product. Sugars in potatoes may be reduced by blanching. Levels of AA in different foods show large variations and no general upper limit is easily applicable, since some formation will always occur. Current policy is that practical measures should be taken voluntarily to reduce AA formation in vulnerable foods since AA is considered a health risk at the concentrations found in foods. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

Pedreschi, F.; Salome Mariotti, M.

2014-01-01

103

Short-term Reservoir Optimization by Stochastic Optimization for Mitigation Downstream Flood Risks  

Science.gov (United States)

An important objective of the operation of multi-purpose reservoirs is the mitigation of flood risks in downstream river reaches. Under the assumptions of reservoirs with finite storage capacities, a key factor for its effective use during flood events is the proper timing of detention measures under consideration of forecast uncertainty. Operational flow forecasting systems support this task by providing deterministic or probabilistic inflow forecasts and decision support components for assessing optimum release strategies. We focus on the decision support component and propose a deterministic optimization and its extension to stochastic optimization procedures based on the non-adaptive Sample Average Approximation (SAA) approach and an adaptive multi-stage stochastic optimization with underlying scenario trees. These techniques are used to compute release trajectories of the reservoirs over a finite forecast horizon of up to 14 days by integrating a nonlinear gradient-based optimization algorithm and a model of the water system. The latter consists of simulation components for pool routing and kinematic or diffusive wave models for the downstream river reaches including a simulation mode and a reverse adjoint mode for the efficient computation of first-order derivatives. The framework has been implemented for a reservoir system operated by the Brazilian Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais S.A. (CEMIG). We present results obtained for the operation of the Três Marias reservoir in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais with a catchment area of near 55,000 km2, an installed capacity of 396 MW and operation restrictions due to downstream flood risk. The focus of our discussion is the impact of sparsely available ground data, forecast uncertainty and its consideration in the optimization procedure. We compare the performance of the above mentioned optimization techniques and conclude the superiority of the stochastic methods.

Schwanenberg, Dirk; Assis Dos Reis, Alberto; Kuwajima, Julio; Alvarado Montero, Rodolfo; Mainardi Fan, Fernando

2014-05-01

104

Coherent measurement of factor risks  

CERN Multimedia

We propose a new procedure for the risk measurement of large portfolios. It employs the following objects as the building blocks: - coherent risk measures introduced by Artzner, Delbaen, Eber, and Heath; - factor risk measures introduced in this paper, which assess the risks driven by particular factors like the price of oil, S&P500 index, or the credit spread; - risk contributions and factor risk contributions, which provide a coherent alternative to the sensitivity coefficients. We also propose two particular classes of coherent risk measures called Alpha V@R and Beta V@R, for which all the objects described above admit an extremely simple empirical estimation procedure. This procedure uses no model assumptions on the structure of the price evolution. Moreover, we consider the problem of the risk management on a firm's level. It is shown that if the risk limits are imposed on the risk contributions of the desks to the overall risk of the firm (rather than on their outstanding risks) and the desks are al...

Cherny, A S; Cherny, Alexander S.; Madan, Dilip B.

2006-01-01

105

Flood risk and mitigation strategies in the southeastern suburbs of Fez City (Morocco  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The risk of flooding in the south-eastern suburbs of Fez (Morocco was engendered by multiple factors (topographic, hydro-climatic, land use, social, technical. This study focuses on the Aouinate El Hajjaj district and shows that the district’s evolution, characterized by informal transactions (speculation, land squatting, construction without respect of norms and regulations was a major factor in the genesis of flood risk as the district extended into vulnerable sectors. Public efforts to resolve the district’s crisis and reinforce its environmental safety began in 1993 (2 dams and channels were constructed, street were paved and basic facilities were provided, such as drinking water, sanitation and electricity, but the risk factors persist. Technical solutions are locally recognized to be useful, but they are not sufficient. Other mitigating actions including the reduction of physical and socioeconomic vulnerability and the strengthening of the social structure of the community should be considered in a systemic point of view. They constitute elements of an alternative strategy in urban planning and development and must be framed by laws and regulations. Their use could be undertaken at individual, community and State levels depending on the specific dimension of each measure. A vision which integrates local and regional scales is essential in risk studies, in order to design a more sustainable action. The role of non-governmental organisations is important in flood mitigation and urban environmental policy. The incorporation of flood prevention as a parameter of urban planning should be considered by planners and the local population.En los suburbios del sudeste de Fez (Marruecos el riesgo de inundaciones responde a fenómenos de diversa naturaleza física y humana (topográficos, hidrológicos, climáticos, utilización del suelo, factores sociales y técnicos. En este trabajo se analiza la situación del distrito de Aouinate El Hajjaj, en donde diferentes procesos derivados de la ocupación de este espacio (especulación, proliferación de asentamientos informales, edificación sin respeto a las normas y reglamentos… han constituido factores decisivos en la génesis de los riesgos de inundación que actualmente afectan a la zona. Aunque los esfuerzos públicos para resolver la crisis del distrito y reforzar su seguridad frente a las adversidades del medio natural comenzaron en 1993 (construcción de dos presas y de canales, pavimentado de calles, dotación y mejora de los equipamientos básicos como el abastecimiento de agua potable y de electricidad, obras de saneamiento, etc., los factores de riesgo aún persisten. Las soluciones técnicas aplicadas han sido reconocidas por su utilidad, pero es necesario trabajar en otros ámbitos, como la reducción de la vulnerabilidad física, social y ambiental, y en el reforzamiento de la estructura social de la comunidad, lo que permitiría abordar el problema desde un punto de vista sistémico. Todos ellos constituyen los elementos de una estrategia alternativa en la planificación y el desarrollo urbano que deben ser enmarcadas por leyes y reglamentos. Su uso podría llevarse a cabo a nivel individual, comunitario y estatal —en función de la dimensión específica de cada caso—, con el fin de fomentar una estrategia de integración entre las escalas locales y regionales que contribuya a concebir acciones más sostenibles en los estudios de mitigación de los riesgos ambientales. Así mismo, el papel de las organizaciones no gubernamentales es importante en esta cuestión, y la política medioambiental, las acciones de los diferentes agentes que intervienen en el planeamiento urbano y la población local, deben estar sensibilizados y comprometidos con las estrategias para la prevención de inundaciones. [fr] Le risque d’inondation dans les banlieues du Sud-Est de la ville de Fez (Maroc sont produits par des facteurs multiples (topographiques, hydro-climatiques, relatifs aux usages du sol, sociaux, techniques. L’étude vise le district d’A

Akdim, Brahim

2013-12-01

106

Uses of risk importance measures  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Risk importance measures provide an understandable and practical way of presenting probabilistic safety analysis results which too often tend to remain abstract numbers without real insight into the content. The report clarifies the definitions, relationships and interpretations of the three most basic measures: Risk increase factor, risk decrease factor, and fractional contribution. The above three measures already cover the main types of risk importance measures. Many other importance measures presented in literature are close variants to some of these three measures. They are related in many cases so that, for a technical system considered, the two other measures can be derived from the one calculated first. However, the practical interpretations are different, and hence each three measures have their own uses and rights to existence. The fundamental aspect of importance measures is, that they express some specific influence of a basic event on the total risk. The basic failure or error events are the elements from which the reliability and risk models are constituted. The importance measures are relative, which is an advantage compared to absolute risk numbers, due to insensitivity with respect to quantification uncertainties. Therefore they are particularly adapted to give first hand guidance where to focus main interest from the system's risk and reliability point of view and wherefrom to continue the analysis with more sophisticated methods requiring more effort

1991-01-01

107

Soil bio-engineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on authochtonal plants suitable for this kind of works and on economic efficiency is essential for the divulgation of such techniques. The present paper is focused on this two issues related to the realization of various typologies of soil bio-engineering works in the humid tropic of Nicaragua.



In the area of Río Blanco, located in the Department of Matagalpa, soil bio-engineering installations were built in several sites. The particular structures built were: drainages with live fascine mattress, a live palisade, a vegetated live crib wall for riverbank protection, a vegetative covering made of a metallic net and biotextile coupled with a live palisade made of bamboo. In order to evaluate the suitability of the various plants used in the works, monitorings were performed, one in the live palisade alongside an unpaved road and the other on the live crib wall along a riverbank, collecting survival rate and morphological parameters data. Concerning the economic efficiency we proceed to a financial analysis of the works and once the unit price was obtained, we converted the amount in EPP Dollars (Equal Purchasing Power in order to compare the Nicaraguan context with the Italian one.



Among the used species we found that Madero negro (Gliricidia sepium and Roble macuelizo (Tabebuia rosea are adequate for soil-bioengineering measure on slopes while Helequeme (Erythrina fusca reported a successful behaviour only in the crib wall for riverbank protection.



In the comparison of the costs in Nicaragua and in Italy, the unit price reduction for the Central American country ranges between 1.5 times (for the vegetative covering and almost 4 times (for the fascine mattress if it's used the EPP dollar exchange rate.



Conclusions are reached with regard to hydrological-risk mitigating actions performed on a basin scale and through naturalistic (live interventions: not only are they socially and technically attainable, even in hardship areas (by maximizing the contribution of the local labor force and minimizing the use of mechanical equipment, but they are also economically sustainable.

A. Petrone

2009-07-01

108

Soil bioengineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on the autochthonal plants suitable for these kinds of interventions and on the economic efficiency of the interventions is essential for the dissemination of such techniques. The present paper is focused on these two issues as related to the realization of various typologies of soil bioengineering works in the humid tropics of Nicaragua.

In the area of Río Blanco, located in the Department of Matagalpa, soil bioengineering installations were built in several sites. The particular structures built were: drainages with live fascine mattress, a live palisade, a vegetated live crib wall for riverbank protection, a vegetative covering made of a metallic net and biotextile coupled with a live palisade made of bamboo. In order to evaluate the suitability of the various plants used in these works, monitoring was performed, one on the live palisade alongside an unpaved road and the other on the live crib wall along a riverbank, by collecting data on survival rate and morphological parameters. Concerning economic efficiency, we proceeded to a financial analysis of the works. Once the unit price was obtained, we converted the amount into EPP Dollars (Equal Purchasing Power in order to compare the Nicaraguan context with the European one.

Among the species used we found that Gliricidia sepium (local common name: Madero negro and Tabebuia rosea (local common name: Roble macuelizo are adequate for soil bioengineering measures on slopes, while Erythrina fusca (local common name: Helequeme resulted in successful behaviour only in the crib wall for riverbank protection.

In comparing costs in Nicaragua and in Italy, the unit price reduction for Nicaragua ranges from 1.5 times (for the vegetative covering to almost 4 times (for the fascine mattress, using the EPP dollar exchange rate.

Our conclusions with regard to hydrological-risk mitigating actions performed on a basin scale and through naturalistic (live interventions are that they are not only socially and technically possible, even in hardship areas (by maximizing the contribution of the local labour force and minimizing the use of mechanical equipment, but also economically sustainable.

A. Petrone

2010-02-01

109

Landslide hazard assessment and mitigation measures in Philippine geothermal fields  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Simple, yet reliable, field criteria have been developed and are being used to qualitatively assess slope instability and slope failure potential in Philippine geothermal fields. Based on a hazard assessment classification of slopes along corridor facilities, sites for implementation of engineering measures are selected. Two case studies are presented. In Mindanao field, the ''very high-risk'' classification of an area resulted in the installation of pipe shelters, which subsequently shielded a section of a pipeline from landslides. Follow-up monitoring is also conducted using cheap, locally fabricated tools, such as surface extensometers. This is being done in Leyte field, where a landslide has threatened a transmission line tower. (author)

Leynes, R.D.; Pioquinto, W.P.C.; Caranto, J.A. [PNOC Energy Development Corporation, Fort Bonifacio (Philippines)

2005-04-01

110

Assessing and mitigating risks of engineering programs with lean management techniques  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

This paper investigates the use of lean management techniques as a risk mitigation approach for large-scale engineering programs. The key research questions are how lean best practices with the highest risk mitigation potential are identified, how the most relevant lean best practices for a specific program are identified and how the effort for implementation of these lean best practices is estimated. Large-scale engineering programs have as results usually complex technical products or systems such as airplanes, satellites (GPS) or software programs, immense infrastructure efforts like the construction of a new airport, highway or bridge, or combine elements of both technology and infrastructure. The benefits they deliver are therefore immense and sometimes even groundbreaking, defining new levels of capabilities. But their sheer size and the built-in complexity also manifest themselves in higher risks, which can lead to significant cost-overruns and large delays in schedule [Oehmen et al. 2012, Cantarelli et al. 2010, Flyvbjerg et al. 2003, GAO 2006]. Program success depends on four dimensions: delivery capability, organizational capability, marketing capability and innovative capability [Shao and Müller 2011, Shao et al. 2012]. To incorporate these capabilities and to manage the obviously difficult entity of a program, a variety of standards and guidance books have been published. The two most prominent ones are Managing Successful Programs (MSP) and The Standard for Program Management by the Project Management Institute (PMI), that both include Risk Management as a focal activity [MSP 2011, PMI 2013].

Fritz, A.; Oehmen, Josef

2014-01-01

111

Mitigating risks associated with Lockout/Tagout (LOTO) of hazardous energy in Nigeria : a tracker approach / E.A. Aghenta.  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The main objective of the study was to determine the risk(s) associated with lockout/tagout of hazardous energy and propose a new LOTO procedure which tracks the implementation of LOTO to mitigate against identified risks as a basis for promotion of safety. The study focuses on electrical personnel working in PHCN. Only electrical accident risks are examined, not other types of risk e.g. mechanical, chemical, and nuclear.

Aghenta, Emmanuel Aigbokhaibho

2012-01-01

112

Comparison of severe accident mitigation measures between EPR and CPR1000  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Severe accident mitigation measures of EPR are introduced, and compared with those of CPR1000, including severe accident dedicated depressurization valves, in-containment refueling water storage tank (IRWST), combustible gas control system, core melt stabilization and cooling system, containment heat removal system, double containment, dedicated instrumentation and controls, severe accident uninterruptible power supply system, operating strategies for severe accident and so on. Improvements of CPR1000 severe accident mitigation measures are proposed. (authors)

2010-09-01

113

Identifying, Assessing, and Mitigating Risk of Single-Point Inspections on the Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor  

Science.gov (United States)

In the production of each Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM), over 100,000 inspections are performed. ATK Thiokol Inc. reviewed these inspections to ensure a robust inspection system is maintained. The principal effort within this endeavor was the systematic identification and evaluation of inspections considered to be single-point. Single-point inspections are those accomplished on components, materials, and tooling by only one person, involving no other check. The purpose was to more accurately characterize risk and ultimately address and/or mitigate risk associated with single-point inspections. After the initial review of all inspections and identification/assessment of single-point inspections, review teams applied risk prioritization methodology similar to that used in a Process Failure Modes Effects Analysis to derive a Risk Prioritization Number for each single-point inspection. After the prioritization of risk, all single-point inspection points determined to have significant risk were provided either with risk-mitigating actions or rationale for acceptance. This effort gave confidence to the RSRM program that the correct inspections are being accomplished, that there is appropriate justification for those that remain as single-point inspections, and that risk mitigation was applied to further reduce risk of higher risk single-point inspections. This paper examines the process, results, and lessons learned in identifying, assessing, and mitigating risk associated with single-point inspections accomplished in the production of the Space Shuttle RSRM.

Greenhalgh, Phillip O.

2004-01-01

114

Risk assessment, formation, and mitigation of dietary acrylamide: current status and future prospects.  

Science.gov (United States)

Acrylamide (AA) was firstly detected in food in 2002, and since then, studies on AA analysis, occurrence, formation, toxicity, risk assessment and mitigation have been extensively carried out, which have greatly advanced understanding of this particular biohazard at both academic and industrial levels. There is considerable variation in the levels of AA in different foods and different brands of the same food; therefore, so far, a general upper limit for AA in food is not available. In addition, the link of dietary AA to human cancer is still under debate, although AA has been known as a potential cause of various toxic effects including carcinogenic effects in experimental animals. Furthermore, the oxidized metabolite of AA, glycidamide (GA), is more toxic than AA. Both AA and GA can form adducts with protein, DNA, and hemoglobin, and some of those adducts can serve as biomarkers for AA exposure; their potential roles in the linking of AA to human cancer, reproductive defects or other diseases, however, are unclear. This review addresses the state-of-the-art understanding of AA, focusing on risk assessment, mechanism of formation and strategies of mitigation in foods. The potential application of omics to AA risk assessment is also discussed. PMID:24713263

Xu, Yi; Cui, Bo; Ran, Ran; Liu, Ying; Chen, Huaping; Kai, Guoyin; Shi, Jianxin

2014-07-01

115

Reactions to children's transgressions in at-risk caregivers: Does mitigating information, type of transgression, or caregiver directive matter?  

Science.gov (United States)

This study examined whether caregivers who exhibit high risk for child physical abuse differ from low-risk caregivers in reactions to transgressing children. Caregivers read vignettes describing child transgressions. These vignettes varied in: (a) the type of transgression described (moral, conventional, personal), (b) presentation of transgression-mitigating information (present, absent), and (c) whether a directive to avoid the transgression was in the vignette (yes, no). After reading each vignette, caregivers provided ratings reflecting their: (a) perceptions of transgression wrongness, (b) internal attributions about the transgressing child, (c) perceptions of the transgressing child's hostile intent, (d) own expected negative post-transgression affect, and (e) perceived likelihood of responding to the transgression with discipline that displayed power assertion and/or induction. For moral transgressions (cruelty, dishonesty, hostility, or greed), mitigating information reduced caregiver expectations that they would feel negative affect and, subsequent to the transgression, use disciplinary strategies that display power assertion. These mitigating effects were smaller among at-risk caregivers than among low-risk caregivers. Moreover, when transgressions disobeyed a directive, among low-risk caregivers, mitigating information reduced the expectation that responses to transgressions would include inductive disciplinary strategies, but it did not do so among at-risk caregivers. In certain circumstances, compared to low-risk caregivers, at-risk caregivers expect to be relatively unaffected by transgression-mitigating information. These results suggest that interventions that increase an at-risk caregiver's ability to properly assess and integrate mitigating information may play a role in reducing the caregiver's risk of child physical abuse. PMID:24075063

Irwin, Lauren M; Skowronski, John J; Crouch, Julie L; Milner, Joel S; Zengel, Bettina

2014-05-01

116

Scientific Opinion on animal health risk mitigation treatments as regards imports of animal casings  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Salting with NaCl for 30 days is a well-established and accepted procedure in the casings industry and it has been the standard animal health risk mitigation treatment prescribed in EU legislation for many years. This opinion reviews (i) improvements in the NaCl treatment that would lead to an increased level of safety to avoid transmission of animal pathogens, (ii) alternative treatments that could have been developed giving equivalent or better results in the inactivation of releva...

Efsa, Panel On Animal Health And Welfare

2012-01-01

117

Assess/Mitigate Risk through the Use of Computer-Aided Software Engineering (CASE) Tools  

Science.gov (United States)

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) was requested to perform an independent assessment of the mitigation of the Constellation Program (CxP) Risk 4421 through the use of computer-aided software engineering (CASE) tools. With the cancellation of the CxP, the assessment goals were modified to capture lessons learned and best practices in the use of CASE tools. The assessment goal was to prepare the next program for the use of these CASE tools. The outcome of the assessment is contained in this document.

Aguilar, Michael L.

2013-01-01

118

Risk-reduction analysis of severe-accident prevention and mitigation systems  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is currently addressing the problem of how regulations might be changed to include consideration of degraded core accidents. In support of this, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program is being performed to assess the benefits and impacts of a set of degraded core safety features. This paper describes some initial results of Phase I of the program which includes estimates of the effects which various preventive and mitigative safety features have on the frequencies and consequences of core melt accidents for six reference reactors.

Hatch, S.W.; Bennett, P.R.; Drayer, D.D.; Benjamin, A.S.

1982-01-01

119

The Trend Analysis on China's Agricultural Natural Risks and Improvement of the Ability of Disaster Mitigation  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In accordance with the concept of the agricultural natural disasters formed in China, by means of over 20 years of major disasters occurred panel data of recorded, it defined and measured the rates of disaster reduction and disaster affected, and gives the interpretation of mitigation agricultural natural disasters. According to the extent and the area of distribution of a variety of disasters in the losses of crop, use of basic statistical methods to analyze the development trend and the affected area's variation of various disasters. Such as, it discussed the natural disaster's long-term changes in the diversity and complexity of features. Finally, from the perspective of macro policy it studies the responds and mitigation measures to cope with agricultural natural disasters.

Jian Wang

2013-03-01

120

Risk Mitigation for the Development of the New Ariane 5 On-Board Computer  

Science.gov (United States)

In the frame of the Ariane 5 production, some equipment will become obsolete and need to be redesigned and redeveloped. This is the case for the On-Board Computer, which has to be completely redesigned and re-qualified by RUAG Space, as well as all its on-board software and associated development tools by ASTRIUM ST. This paper presents this obsolescence treatment, which has started in 2007 under an ESA contract, in the frame of ACEP and ARTA accompaniment programmes, and is very critical in technical term but also from schedule point of view: it gives the context and overall development plan, and details the risk mitigation actions agreed with ESA, especially those related to the development of the input/output ASIC, and also the on-board software porting and revalidation strategy. The efficiency of these risk mitigation actions has been proven by the outcome schedule; this development constitutes an up-to-date case for good practices, including some experience report and feedback for future other developments.

Stransky, A.; Dubuc, F.; Conde-Reis, A.; Ledoux, A.; Miramont, P.; Johansson, L.

2010-08-01

 
 
 
 
121

Measuring, Reporting and Verifying Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions. Reflecting experiences under the Mitigation Momentum Project. Discussion paper  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Mitigation Momentum project aims to support the development of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs). It contributes to the concrete design of NAMA proposals in five countries (Peru, Chile, Indonesia, Tunisia and Kenya). A further aim is to foster cooperation and knowledge exchange within the NAMA community while advancing the international climate policy debate on mitigation and related issues, including approaches for the Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) of NAMAs. MRV enables the assessment of the effectiveness of both internationally supported NAMAs (supported NAMAs) and domestically supported NAMAs (unilateral NAMAs) by tracking NAMA impacts including greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions and non-GHG related impacts such as sustainable development benefits. MRV also supports improved policy design and decision making through systematic progress reporting and is a key tool to ensure accountability of NAMA stakeholders. Both host countries and funders share the common interest of having strong, implementable MRV systems in place. From both perspectives, this raises a number of questions, as well as potential challenges, on how to adapt the MRV approach to the specific circumstances of each NAMA. The objective of this paper is to identify open issues for the MRV of impacts of NAMAs, understood here as implementable actions, i.e. a project, a policy, a programme or a strategy. It pays particular attention to NAMAs with a supported component and reflects relevant initial experiences with developing NAMA proposals in the five Mitigation Momentum countries (i.e. using country examples where appropriate). As MRV systems for these NAMAs are still under development or at their preliminary stage, we hope to share further lessons learned in a subsequent discussion paper. Key challenges analysed in this paper include: How to design a MRV system that satisfies both the host country's and funder's expectations while complying with United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reporting requirements? How to draw the line between the MRV approach for unilateral components and the MRV approach for supported components given that many NAMAs are likely to have both unilateral as well as supported components? How to design a pragmatic, implementable MRV system, which is also robust? What does robustness mean in the context of the MRV of NAMAs? Current NAMA experiences show that responding to these challenges requires taking into account the variety of NAMAs, as illustrated by those submitted to the UNFCCC (including economy-wide GHG reduction goals, sectoral strategies, mitigation policies, individual projects, etc.), and countries' capacities. Although this paper does not aim to provide practical guidance, it will highlight areas where common guidance would be valuable to deal with such challenges. It will also point out areas where such guidance is limited de facto and where pragmatic approaches i.e. seeking a balance between robustness, feasibility and cost-effectiveness, may prove valuable to design feasible yet still robust MRV systems. Although this paper does not answer all questions it raises, it aims to offer innovative ways to respond to open issues, including through learning from country experiences. After a short introduction to basic MRV concepts and to the current status of discussions and experiences on MRV (Chapter 2), the paper is organised around key dimensions of MRV as recognised by MRV literature and UNFCCC texts: transparency (Chapter 3), robustness (Chapter 4), and feasibility and cost-effectiveness (Chapter 5). Challenges pertaining to these MRV dimensions are further explored in each chapter.

De Vit, C.; Roeser, F.; Fekete, H.; Hoehne, N.; Wartmann, S.; Van Tilburg, X.; Larkin, J.; Escalante, D.; Haensel, G.; Veum, K.; Cameron, L.; Halcomb, J.

2013-06-15

122

Predictability and extended-range prognosis in natural hazard risk mitigation process: A case study over west Greece  

Science.gov (United States)

Natural hazards pose an increasing threat to society and new innovative techniques or methodologies are necessary to be developed, in order to enhance the risk mitigation process in nowadays. It is commonly accepted that disaster risk reduction is a vital key for future successful economic and social development. The systematic improvement accuracy of extended-range prognosis products, relating with monthly and seasonal predictability, introduced them as a new essential link in risk mitigation procedure. Aiming at decreasing the risk, this paper presents the use of seasonal and monthly forecasting process that was tested over west Greece from September to December, 2013. During that season significant severe weather events occurred, causing significant impact to the local society (severe storms/rainfalls, hail, flash floods, etc). Seasonal and monthly forecasting products from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) depicted, with probabilities stratified by terciles, areas of Greece where significant weather may occur. As atmospheric natural hazard early warning systems are able to deliver warnings up to 72 hours in advance, this study illustrates that extended-range prognosis could be introduced as a new technique in risk mitigation. Seasonal and monthly forecast products could highlight extended areas where severe weather events may occur in one month lead time. In addition, a risk mitigation procedure, that extended prognosis products are adopted, is also presented providing useful time to preparedness process at regional administration level.

Matsangouras, Ioannis T.; Nastos, Panagiotis T.

2014-05-01

123

Effect of Wind Intermittency on the Electric Grid: Mitigating the Risk of Energy Deficits  

CERN Document Server

Successful implementation of California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) mandating 33 percent renewable energy generation by 2020 requires inclusion of a robust strategy to mitigate increased risk of energy deficits (blackouts) due to short time-scale (sub 1 hour) intermittencies in renewable energy sources. Of these RPS sources, wind energy has the fastest growth rate--over 25% year-over-year. If these growth trends continue, wind energy could make up 15 percent of California's energy portfolio by 2016 (wRPS15). However, the hour-to-hour variations in wind energy (speed) will create large hourly energy deficits that require installation of other, more predictable, compensation generation capacity and infrastructure. Compensating for the energy deficits of wRPS15 could potentially cost tens of billions in additional dollar-expenditure for fossil and / or nuclear generation capacity. There is a real possibility that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions will miss the California ...

George, Sam O; Nguyen, Scott V

2010-01-01

124

Ignitors to mitigate the risk of hydrogen explosions - a critical review  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Risk analyses and the accident at the Three Mile Island plant (TMI-2) have shown that the formation of large amounts of hydrogen during severe accidents poses a real danger to the containment integrity. Proper means must be taken to prevent the occurance of global or sometimes even local detonations. The applicability of ignitor systems to protect large dry PWR containments is critically discussed. Although already adopted for Mark III-BWR and Ice-condenser PWR-containments the reliability of spark plug ignitor systems to protect large dry containments from the possible consequences of a local or global detonation is neither proven experimentally nor analytically. An experimental study of possible post-accident inertisation procedures deems necessary and may yield a more convincing mitigation procedure. (orig.)

1990-01-01

125

VALUE AT RISK - CORPORATE RISK MEASUREMENT  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The notion of 'risk' is used in a number of sciences. The Faculty of Law studies the risk depending on its legality. The Accident Theory applies this term to describe the damage and the disasters. One can find studies on the risks in the works of psychology, philosophy, medicine and within each of these areas the study of the risk is based on the given science subject and, of course, on their methods and approaches. Such a variety of risk study is explained by the diversity of this phenomenon...

Anis Cecilia-Nicoleta; Roth Anne-Marie; Apolzan (Angyal) Carmen-Maria

2011-01-01

126

Severe accident approach - final report. Evaluation of design measures for severe accident prevention and consequence mitigation.  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

An important goal of the US DOE reactor development program is to conceptualize advanced safety design features for a demonstration Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR). The treatment of severe accidents is one of the key safety issues in the design approach for advanced SFR systems. It is necessary to develop an in-depth understanding of the risk of severe accidents for the SFR so that appropriate risk management measures can be implemented early in the design process. This report presents the results of a review of the SFR features and phenomena that directly influence the sequence of events during a postulated severe accident. The report identifies the safety features used or proposed for various SFR designs in the US and worldwide for the prevention and/or mitigation of Core Disruptive Accidents (CDA). The report provides an overview of the current SFR safety approaches and the role of severe accidents. Mutual understanding of these design features and safety approaches is necessary for future collaborations between the US and its international partners as part of the GEN IV program. The report also reviews the basis for an integrated safety approach to severe accidents for the SFR that reflects the safety design knowledge gained in the US during the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor (ALMR) and Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) programs. This approach relies on inherent reactor and plant safety performance characteristics to provide additional safety margins. The goal of this approach is to prevent development of severe accident conditions, even in the event of initiators with safety system failures previously recognized to lead directly to reactor damage.

Tentner, A. M.; Parma, E.; Wei, T.; Wigeland, R.; Nuclear Engineering Division; SNL; INL

2010-03-01

127

Risk Measures in Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment.  

Science.gov (United States)

Risk measures in various applications of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) are defined and their use to support operational safety management of nuclear power plants is discussed. The basic risk measures represent the plant risk frequency (core damage...

J. Holmberg G. Johanson I. Niemelae

1993-01-01

128

Marginal Abatement Cost Curves and the Optimal Timing of Mitigation Measures  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Decision makers facing abatement targets need to decide which abatement measures to implement, and in which order. Measure-explicit marginal abatement cost curves depict the cost and abating potential of available mitigation options. Using a simple intertemporal optimization model, we demonstrate why this information is not su_cient to design emission reduction strategies. Because the measures required to achieve ambitious emission reductions cannot be implemented overnight, the optimal strat...

Vogt-schilb, Adrien; Hallegatte, Ste?phane

2013-01-01

129

Marginal abatement cost curves and the optimal timing of mitigation measures  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Decision makers facing abatement targets need to decide which abatement measures to implement, and in which order. Measure-explicit marginal abatement cost curves depict the cost and abating potential of available mitigation options. Using a simple intertemporal optimization model, we demonstrate why this information is not sufficient to design emission reduction strategies. Because the measures required to achieve ambitious emission reductions cannot be implemented overnight, the optimal str...

Vogt-schilb, Adrien; Hallegatte, Ste?phane

2014-01-01

130

How HRP Research Results Contribute to Human Space Exploration Risk Mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

In addition to the scientific value of publications derived from research, results from Human Research Program (HRP) research also support HRP’s goals of mitigating crew health and performance risks in space flight. Research results are used to build the evidence base characterizing crew health and performance risks, to support risk research plan development, to inform crew health and performance standards, and to provide technologies to programs for meeting those standards and optimizing crew health and performance in space. This talk will describe examples of how research results support these efforts. For example, HRP research results are used to revise or even create new standards for human space flight, which have been established to protect crew health and performance during flight, and prevent negative long-term health consequences due to space flight. These standards are based on the best available clinical and scientific evidence, as well as operational experience from previous space flight missions, and are reviewed as new evidence emerges. Research results are also used to update the HRP evidence base, which is comprised of a set of reports that provide a current record of the state of knowledge from research and operations for each of the defined human health and performance risks for future NASA exploration missions. A discussion of the role of evidence within the HRP architecture will also be presented. The scope of HRP research results extends well beyond publications, as they are used in several capacities to support HRP deliverables and, ultimately, the advancement of human space exploration beyond low-Earth orbit.

Lumpkins, S. B.; Mindock, J. A.

2014-01-01

131

Multiple-pollutant cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gas mitigation measures in the UK agriculture  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Highlights: ? Multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curves can inform integrated environmental policy. ? We incorporated the co-effects on NH3, NO3?, P and sediment, as monetary values, into the UK GHG MACC. ? Adding co-effects modifies the GHG MACC, though with little impact unless using high damage values. ? Further research is needed on the co-effects of GHG mitigation measures and on damage values. ? Analysis should focus on the co-effects of measures that are slightly above or below the threshold. -- Abstract: This paper develops multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curve analysis to identify an optimal set of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures considering the trade-offs and synergies with other environmental pollutants. The analysis is applied to UK agriculture, a sector expected to make a contribution to the national GHG mitigation effort. Previous analyses using marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) have determined the sector's GHG abatement potential based on the cost-effectiveness of a variety of technically feasible mitigation measures. Most of these measures have external effects on other pollution loads arising from agricultural activities. Here the monetary values of four of the most important impacts to water and air (specifically ammonia, nitrate, phosphorous and sediment) are included in the cost-effectiveness analysis. The resulting multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curve (MP MACC) informs the design of sustainable climate change policies by showing how the MP MACC for the UK agriculture can differ from the GHG MACC. The analysis also highlights research gaps, and suggests a need to understand the wider environmental effects of GHG mitigation options and to reduce the uncertainty in pollutant damage cost estimates

2013-03-01

132

Oil debris monitoring for mitigating revenue and cost risks associated with gearbox unreliability  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The gearbox in a wind turbine is one of the most problematic critical components of the turbine. Gearbox failures are common after 4 to 7 years of operation. The wind industry is dealing with the gearbox reliability problem in 3 major ways, notably by conducting root cause investigations of gearbox problems; modifying the design of gearboxes and system interfaces in an attempt to better cope with loads imposed on wind turbine drivetrains; and, finding solutions such as condition monitoring to manage the gearbox problem. Condition monitoring has the potential to mitigate the risk of profit loss from gearbox problems by managing cost of maintenance through early detection of the problems. Condition monitoring enables the operator to minimize gearbox repair costs and proactively plan the repair of the gearbox at an opportune time so as to minimize loss of revenue from power generation. Oil debris monitoring has been proven to be a preferred condition monitoring technique for early detection of damage to bearing and gear elements of gearboxes. MetalSCAN is an advanced on-line oil debris monitoring system that can effectively detect damage associated with bearing and gear elements in gearboxes. MetalSCAN technology is used to quantify the severity and rate of damage progression towards failure, thereby enabling wind turbine operator to manage the gearbox risk in terms of minimizing maintenance costs and managing power generation revenue. 6 refs.

Dupuis, R. [GasTOPS Ltd., Ottawa, ON (Canada)

2008-07-01

133

Different risk measures: different portfolio compositions?  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Traditionally, the measure of risk used in portfolio optimisation models is the variance. However, alternative measures of risk have many theoretical and practical advantages and it is peculiar therefore that they are not used more frequently. This may be because of the difficulty in deciding which measure of risk is best and any attempt to compare different risk measures may be a futile exercise until a common risk measure can be identified. To overcome this, another approach is considere...

Byrne, Peter; Lee, Stephen

2004-01-01

134

Conditional and dynamic convex risk measures  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

We extend the definition of a convex risk measure to a conditional framework where additional information is available. We characterize these risk measures through the associated acceptance sets and prove a representation result in terms of conditional expectations. As an example we consider the class of conditional entropic risk measures. A new regularity property of conditional risk measures is defined and discussed. Finally we introduce the concept of a dynamic convex risk measure as a fam...

Detlefsen, Kai; Scandolo, Giacomo

2005-01-01

135

The curious case of selecting and ranking GHG mitigation measures in transport:  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Marginal abatement cost curves and cost-effectiveness estimates for transport CO2 emission mitigation measures are useful tools and widely accepted for policy-makers for displaying a range of available emissions reduction options, their cost-effectiveness and reduction potential. However there is a large variety in outcomes which consequently changes the prioritisation of policies and measures as well. This paper shows a wide range of cost-effectiveness estimates in different studies for the ...

Kok, R.; Annema, J. A.

2010-01-01

136

Risk mitigation and production flexibility in integrated forest biorefinery - JoBi  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The profitable operation of future multi- product integrated forest biorefineries requires the control of the risks associated to different parts of the supply chain. In some cases the risk mitigation can be achieved with production flexibility, which is a result of effective production structure planning and production planning. The project consortium studies and develops general methods and tools for these planning processes, that is, for decision making support in the case of selecting the most profitable scenario for integrated forest biorefinery. For production structure planning a method was developed and is under testing with case studies. The method is intended for screening possible retrofit biorefinery scenarios. In the first case study the method was able to identify the clearly non-promising scenarios for the case mill and with sensitivity and risk analysis these results are expected to be further enhanced. In production planning a general methodology for assessing the lifetime value of flexibility has been set up. When there are no costs associated with the changes of operating point at life-time time-steps, e.g. at 1 year intervals, the flexibility analysis solves with multiparametric programming the operational points in a wide range of uncertain parameters, such as raw material costs and availability, and end product costs. Then the flexibility analysis is carried out as a stochastic simulation over lifetime scenarios of uncertain parameters. The flexibility analysis has been applied to a simplified forest biorefinery model, the operation of which has been studied with a few relevant, stochastic, life-time scenarios. With changeover costs the optimization is more complex as at each decision time the rest of the system lifetime must be dynamically optimized under stochastic scenarios. First version for this case has been tested with a simplistic production model containing the essential features of production plants. (orig.)

Hytoenen, E.; Manninen, J. (VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)), Email: eemeli.hytonen@vtt.fi, Email: jussi.manninen@vtt.fi; Ritala, R.; Rajala, M. (TUT Tampere Univ. of Technology (Finland)), Email: risto.ritala@tut.fi, Email: miika.rajala@tut.fi

2010-10-15

137

Risk mitigation and production flexibility in intergrated forest biorefinery JoBi  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The profitable operation of future multi- product integrated forest biorefineries requires the control of the risks associated to different parts of the supply chain. In some cases the risk mitigation can be achieved with production flexibility, which is a result of effective production structure planning and production planning. The project consortium studies and develops general methods and tools for these planning processes, that is, for decision making support in the case of selecting the most profitable scenario for integrated forest biorefinery. For production structure planning a method was developed and tested with two case studies. The method is intended for screening possible retrofit biorefinery scenarios. In the first case study the method was able to identify the clearly non-promising retrofit biorefinery scenarios for the case mill. Using sensitivity and risk analysis, the performance of the scenarios under varying conditions was studied and these results were also utilized in the screenmisation ing. In the second case study, the implications of production flexibility on investment costs were identified. The same process scenarios were also analyzed in production planning. In production planning a general methodology for assessing the lifetime value of flexibility has been set up. When there are no costs associated with the changes of operating point at life-time time-steps, e.g. at 1 year intervals, the flexibility analysis solves with multiparametric programming the operational points in a wide range of uncertain parameters, such as raw material costs and availability, and end product costs. Then the flexibility analysis is carried out as a stochastic simulation over lifetime scenarios of uncertain parameters. The flexibility analysis has been applied to a simplified forest biorefinery model and tested by comparing several flexible ethanol production technologies. With changeover costs the optimization is more complex as at each decision time the rest of the system lifetime must be dynamically optimized under stochastic scenarios. (orig.)

Hytoenen, E.; Manninen, J. (VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)), e-mail: eemeli.hytonen@vtt.fi, e-mail: jussi.manninen@vtt.fi; Ritala, R.; Rajala, M. (TUT Tampere Univ. of Technology, Tampere (Finland)), e-mail: risto.ritala@tut.fi, e-mail: miika.rajala@tut.fi

2011-11-15

138

Measuring reporting verifying. A primer on MRV for nationally appropriate mitigation actions  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The requirements for measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) of nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) are one of the crucial topics on the agenda of international negotiations to address climate change mitigation. According to agreements so far, the general guidelines for domestic MRV are to be developed by Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA)1. Further, the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) will be conducting international consultations and analysis (ICA) of biennial update reports (BUR) to improve transparency of mitigation actions, which should be measured, reported and verified. 2. What is clear from undergoing discussions both at SBSTA and at SBI is that MRV for NAMAs should not be a burden for controlling greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions connected to economic activities. Instead, the MRV process should facilitate mitigation actions; encourage the redirection of investments and address concerns regarding carbon content of emission intensive operations of private and public companies and enterprises worldwide. While MRV requirements are being shaped within the Convention, there are a number of initiatives supporting developing countries moving forward with NAMA development and demonstration activities. How these actions shall be measured, reported and verified, however, remain unanswered. MRV is not new. It is present in most existing policies and frameworks related to climate change mitigation. With an aim to contribute to international debate and capacity building on this crucial issue, the UNEP Risoe Centre in cooperation with UNDP, are pleased to present this publication that through the direct collaboration with Det Norske Veritas (DNV) builds on existing MRV practices in current carbon markets; provides insights on how MRV for NAMAs can be performed and identifies elements and drivers to be considered when designing adequate MRV systems for NAMAs in developing countries. This primer is the second contribution in the emerging area of NAMAs and MRV. It is complemented by a recent publication on Low Carbon Development Strategies and NAMAs. (Author)

Hinostroza, M. (ed.); Luetken, S.; Holm Olsen, K. (Technical Univ. of Denmark. UNEP Risoe Centre, Roskilde (Denmark)); Aalders, E.; Pretlove, B.; Peters, N. (Det Norske Veritas, Hellerup (Denmark))

2012-03-15

139

Diarrhoeal Health Risks Attributable to Water-Borne-Pathogens in Arsenic-Mitigated Drinking Water in West Bengal are Largely Independent of the Microbiological Quality of the Supplied Water  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available There is a growing discussion about the possibility of arsenic mitigation measures in Bengal and similar areas leading to undesirable substitution of water-borne-pathogen attributable risks pathogens for risks attributable to arsenic, in part because of uncertainties in relative pathogen concentrations in supplied and end-use water. We try to resolve this discussion, by assessing the relative contributions of water supply and end-user practices to water-borne-pathogen-attributable risks for arsenic mitigation options in a groundwater arsenic impacted area of West Bengal. Paired supplied arsenic-mitigated water and end-use drinking water samples from 102 households were collected and analyzed for arsenic and thermally tolerant coliforms [TTC], used as a proxy for microbiological water quality, We then estimated the DALYs related to key sequelae, diarrheal diseases and cancers, arising from water-borne pathogens and arsenic respectively. We found [TTC] in end-use drinking water to depend only weakly on [TTC] in source-water. End-user practices far outweighed the microbiological quality of supplied water in determining diarrheal disease burden. [TTC] in source water was calculated to contribute <1% of total diarrheal disease burden. No substantial demonstrable pathogen-for-arsenic risk substitution attributable to specific arsenic mitigation of supplied waters was observed, illustrating the benefits of arsenic mitigation measures in the area studied.

Debapriya Mondal

2014-04-01

140

On the post mitigation impact risk assessment of possible targets for an asteroid deflection demonstration mission in the NEOShield project.  

Science.gov (United States)

Mankind believes to have the capabilities to avert potentially disastrous asteroid impacts. Yet, only the realization of a mitigation demonstration mission can confirm such a claim. The NEOShield project, an international collaboration under European leadership, aims to draw a comprehensive picture of the scientific as well as technical requirements to such an endeavor. One of the top priorities of such a demonstration mission is, of course, that a previously harmless target asteroid shall not be turned into a potentially hazardous object. Given the inherently large uncertainties in an asteroid's physical parameters, as well as the additional uncertainties introduced during the deflection attempt, an in depth analysis of the change in asteroid impact probabilities after a deflection event becomes necessary. We present a post mitigation impact risk analysis of a list of potential deflection test missions and discuss the influence of orbital, physical and mitigation induced uncertainties.

Eggl, Siegfried

2014-05-01

 
 
 
 
141

Role of the Internet in Anticipating and Mitigating Earthquake Catastrophes, and the Emergence of Personal Risk Management (Invited)  

Science.gov (United States)

Risks from natural and financial catastrophes are currently managed by a combination of large public and private institutions. Public institutions usually are comprised of government agencies that conduct studies, formulate policies and guidelines, enforce regulations, and make “official” forecasts. Private institutions include insurance and reinsurance companies, and financial service companies that underwrite catastrophe (“cat”) bonds, and make private forecasts. Although decisions about allocating resources and developing solutions are made by large institutions, the costs of dealing with catastrophes generally fall for the most part on businesses and the general public. Information on potential risks is generally available to the public for some hazards but not others. For example, in the case of weather, private forecast services are provided by www.weather.com and www.wunderground.com. For earthquakes in California (only), the official forecast is the WGCEP-USGS forecast, but provided in a format that is difficult for the public to use. Other privately made forecasts are currently available, for example by the JPL QuakeSim and Russian groups, but these efforts are limited. As more of the world’s population moves increasingly into major seismic zones, new strategies are needed to allow individuals to manage their personal risk from large and damaging earthquakes. Examples include individual mitigation measures such as retrofitting, as well as microinsurance in both developing and developed countries, as well as other financial strategies. We argue that the “long tail” of the internet offers an ideal, and greatly underutilized mechanism to reach out to consumers and to provide them with the information and tools they need to confront and manage seismic hazard and risk on an individual, personalized basis. Information of this type includes not only global hazard forecasts, which are now possible, but also global risk estimation. Additionally, social networking tools are available that will allow self-organizing, disaster-resilient communities to arise as emergent structures from the underlying nonlinear social dynamics. In this talk, we argue that the current style of risk management is not making adequate use of modern internet technology, and that significantly more can be done. We suggest several avenues to proceed, in particular making use of the internet for earthquake forecast and information delivery, as well as tracking forecast validation and verification on a real-time basis. We also show examples of forecasts delivered over the internet, and describe how these are made.

Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Donnellan, A.; Graves, W.; Tiampo, K. F.; Klein, W.

2009-12-01

142

Extreme Measures of Agricultural Financial Risk  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Risk is an inherent feature of agricultural production and marketing and accurate measurement of it helps inform more efficient use of resources. This paper examines three tail quantile-based risk measures applied to the estimation of extreme agricultural financial risk for corn and soybean production in the US: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall (ES) and Spectral Risk Measures (SRMs). We use Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to model the tail returns and present results for t...

Cotter, John; Dowd, Kevin; Morgan, Wyn

2011-01-01

143

Extreme measures of agricultural financial risk  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Risk is an inherent feature of agricultural production and marketing and accurate measurement of it helps inform more efficient use of resources. This paper examines three tail quantile-based risk measures applied to the estimation of extreme agricultural financial risk for corn and soybean production in the US: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall (ES) and Spectral Risk Measures (SRMs). We use Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to model the tail returns and present results for thes...

Cotter, John; Dowd, Kevin; Morgan, Wyn

2008-01-01

144

Experimental measurements about harmonic current mitigation of electric vehicle battery chargers  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The expected high penetration of battery chargers for electric vehicles (EV) in electric networks is foreseen as a potential problem for power quality. Battery chargers are nonlinear devices that inject harmonic currents and pollute network voltages. Thus, their harmonic emissions must be analyzed and reduced by harmonic mitigation techniques to avoid future problems. This paper analyzes and reports some real case measurements of harmonics injected by single- and three-ph...

Sainz Sapera, Luis; Balcells Sendra, Josep

2011-01-01

145

Engineering aspects of earthquake risk mitigation: Lessons from management of recent earthquakes, and consequential mudflows and landslides  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The Proceedings contain 30 selected presentations given at the Second and Third UNDRO/USSR Training Seminars: Engineering Aspects of Earthquake Risk Assessment and Mitigation of Losses, held in Dushanbe, October 1988; and Lessons from Management of Recent Earthquakes, and Consequential Mudflows and Landslides, held in Moscow, October 1989. The annexes to the document provide information on the participants, the work programme and the resolution adopted at each of the seminars. Refs, figs and tabs

1988-10-17

146

Risk measures for processes and BSDEs  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The paper analyzes risk assessment for cash flows in continuous time using the notion of convex risk measures for processes. By combining a decomposition result for optional measures, and a dual representation of a convex risk measure for bounded \\cd processes, we show that this framework provides a systematic approach to the both issues of model ambiguity, and uncertainty about the time value of money. We also establish a link between risk measures for processes and BSDEs.

Penner, Irina; Reveillac, Anthony

2013-01-01

147

Distribution-Invariant Dynamic Risk Measures  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The paper provides an axiomatic characterization of dynamic risk measures for multi-period financial positions. For the special case of a terminal cash flow, we require that risk depends on its conditional distribution only. We prove a representation theorem for dynamic risk measures and investigate their relation to static risk measures. Two notions of dynamic consistency are proposed. A key insight of the paper is that dynamic consistency and the notion of “measure convex sets of probab...

Weber, Stefan

2003-01-01

148

Continuous Monitoring and On-line Analysis of Operational Dose Rates: Tools to Further Mitigate Radiation Risks  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Along with passive and active engineering and administrative controls usually implemented in radiation protection programs at different facilities, continuous monitoring and on-line analysis of data measured by the radiation detectors at the workplace and in the environment can be considered as an additional tool used to further mitigate radiation risks. Many monitoring systems on the market today allow connecting radiation area monitors into a network, and reading and accumulating data continuously in a database. The point of this presentation is to bring attention to the fact that such accumulated information can be analyzed and used in many respects to improve reliability and functionality of the monitoring and control systems. A simple time history of background readings from a radiation detector can be used to evaluate the stability of the detector performance. Data recorded during normal facility operations may serve to establish a pattern of acceptable dose rates in such detector and allow to better detect off-normal and unstable modes of the facility operation before they reach hardware trip levels. Facility operators and users may utilize such monitoring systems to optimize operations and minimize their radiological impact. Implementation and examples of use of the RADMON radiation monitoring and data analysis system at Jefferson Lab is presented.

2009-07-12

149

Evaluation of innovative means of hydrogen risk mitigation in thermonuclear fusion reactors  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

One of the main accidents in ITER-type thermonuclear fusion reactors is the loss of coolant leading to hydrogen production. Within the framework of the studies on the ITER fusion reactor, a mitigation strategy for this risk must be devised by focusing on a system, which can be placed near the hydrogen source. The uncertainty as to the air content during such a scenario forbids the use of classic methods based on the hydrogen/oxygen reaction such as passive catalytic recombiners. Former studies have proposed a process based on the reduction of metallic oxides and more particularly that of the manganese dioxide enhanced by silver oxide mixture. The reaction studied is H2 + MnO2 ? MnO + H2O (reaction enhanced by Ag2O). The purpose is to study the kinetic. The method used consists in comparing the experimental results obtained on the pilot facility CIGNE with those provided by a model. The experimental results were obtained from tests made on a pilot facility with a solid/gas reaction in a fixed bed. These underlined the importance of favoring the solid/gas contact surface. The modeling used in the MITRHY simulation program, coupled to an optimizer helped determine the kinetic parameters and the data on the material and temperature transfers. The kinetic is of first order rate for hydrogen with an activation energy of 29428 J/mol and a kinetic coefficient of 142 m.s-1. Integrated in the MITRHY program, the kinetic parameters were used to simulate the hydrogen elimination in the accident conditions on the ITER experimental reactor. This study achieved a pre-design basis of the device (bed of about 30 cm with grains of a diameter of less than 5 mm) to be implemented. It also underlined the need to favor the specific surface to improved process efficiency. (author)

2003-01-01

150

Sistema Inteligente de Mitigación de Riesgos Intelligent system for risk mitigation  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available La acumulación de experiencias en la concepción de proyectos, el surgimiento de organizaciones y estándares dedicados a la planificación y administración de los mismos, han permitido que su desarrollo se haya convertido en una actividad planificada y controlada. La gestión de riesgos es un proceso complejo estrechamente vinculado al dominio que tenga el equipo de desarrollo sobre el tema. De su correcta gestión dependerán gran parte de los resultados, teniendo en cuenta las ventajas que tanto tecnológicas como económicas reportará para el equipo de desarrollo la mitigación de los mismos. Los riesgos han de analizarse para propiciar el aprovechamiento de las diversas oportunidades que puedan ofrecer y de la misma forma, evitar que sean muy severos e irreparables, los daños que puedan provocar. Los sistemas basados en casos (SBC ayudan y agilizan la toma de decisiones simulando las cadenas de razonamiento que realiza un experto para resolver un problema de su dominio. Su vinculación con distintos elementos del proceso de desarrollo de software posibilita la obtención de resultados más acertados a partir del conocimiento que se les introduce basado en la experiencia acumulada. Actualmente el centro de Informatización para la Seguridad Ciudadana ISEC, ha enfrentado dificultades para una rápida y acertada gestión de riesgos. La utilización de las facilidades que brindan los SBC para la gestión de riesgos resultaría ventajoso al brindar las herramientas necesarias para que los líderes de proyecto, basados en experiencias anteriores, realicen una planificación más acertada, teniendo en cuenta los diversos contratiempos que pudieran surgir.the accumulation of experiences in project design, and the emergence of standards organizations and engaged in planning and administration of the same, have allowed their development has become an activity planned and controlled. Risk management during the life cycle of software development is a complex process closely linked to the domain with the development team on the subject. In its correct management will depend largely on the results, taking into account both technological advantages for the team will bring economic development, mitigating them. To have a tool that automates this, streamline the decision-making process, is essential. In Artificial Intelligence there are different knowledge-based techniques that allow solution of problems in different ways. One of the most common techniques is knowledge Based Systems, which are computer systems that use domain knowledge to solve problems pertaining to this. This solution is essentially the same as that obtained by a person experienced in the problem domain. It is of great importance to use the advantages provided by this type of systems for developing applications to streamline the process of managing risks. To this will be discussed in this article, showing that facilitates the use of minimal resources and higher quality.

Yadira Ruiz Constanten

2012-09-01

151

Vector-valued risk measure processes  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Introduced by Artzner, Delbaen, Eber and Heath (1998) the axiomatic characterization of a static coherent risk measure was extended by Jouini, Meddeb and Touzi (2004) in a multi-dimensional setting to the concept of vector-valued risk measures. In this paper, we propose a dynamic version of the vector-valued risk measures in a continuous-time framework. Particular attention is devoted to the choice of a convenient risk space. We provide dual characterization results and examples of vector val...

Ben Tahar, Imen; Le?pinette, Emmanuel

2012-01-01

152

Harmonic Generation and Mitigation by Full-Scale Converter Wind Turbines: : Measurements and Simulations  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

This paper shows that wind turbine harmonic generation and mitigation assessment are complex tasks, and many aspects, such as measurements, data processing, modelling and validation, must be taken into consideration. The paper describes the measurement process and shows sophisticated analyses on representative harmonic measurements of the wind turbine generators at Avedøre Holme. The nature of generation and mitigation of harmonic components in the wind turbine generators are clearly presented and explained. The mechanism of harmonic generation, some dynamic behaviour aspects and interaction with the external network are considered. Measurement, data processing and simulation results are presented and compared. Different analysis methods, such as statistical analysis, harmonic calculation, and mathematical description are applied and described in detail. Some issues regarding commonly applied standards are also put forward in the paper. Based on measurements and simulations, it is shown that a general overview of the behaviour of a wind turbine generator cannot be fully observed only based on harmonic current analyses as suggested in the standards.

Kocewiak, Lukasz Hubert; Hjerrild, Jesper

2011-01-01

153

New Risk Measure and Idiosyncratic Risk in Taiwan Stock Market  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Under the model developed by Merton (1987), the idiosyncratic risk would be important to explain the expected stock return. We follow the approach of Daniel and Titman (1998), and use the risk measure developed by Jan and Wang (2012) to examine whether idiosyncratic risk can play an important role in explaining the expected return in Taiwan stock market. We find that beta can’t explain the expected return, and that idiosyncratic risk has a positive relation to expected returns for stocks wi...

Yin-Ching Jan; Su-Ling Chiu; Wang, Jerry M. C.

2013-01-01

154

On the necessity of five risk measures  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The banking systems that deal with risk management depend on underlying risk measures. Following the recommendation of the Basel II accord, most banks have developed internal models to determine their capital requirement. The Value at Risk measure plays an important role in computing this capital. In this paper we analyze in detail the errors produced by use of this measure. We then discuss other measures, pointing out their strengths and shortcomings. We give detailed examples, showing the n...

Guegan, Dominique; Tarrant, Wayne

2010-01-01

155

On the Necessity of Five Risk Measures  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The banking systems that deal with risk management depend on underlying risk measures. Following the recommendation of the Basel II accord, most banks have developed internal models to determine their capital requirement. The Value at Risk measure plays an important role in computing this capital. In this paper we analyze in detail the errors produced by use of this measure. We then discuss other measures, pointing out their strengths and shortcomings. We give detailed examples, showing the n...

Guegan, Dominique; Tarrant, Wayne

2012-01-01

156

Lessons Learnt and Mitigation Measures for the CERN LHC Equipment with RF fingers  

CERN Document Server

Beam-induced RF heating has been observed in several LHC components when the bunch/beam intensity was increased and/or the bunch length reduced. In particular eight bellows, out of the ten double-bellow modules present in the machine in 2011, were found with the spring, which should keep the RF fingers in good electrical contact with the central insert, broken. Following these observations, the designs of all the components of the LHC equipped with RF fingers have been reviewed. The lessons learnt and mitigation measures are presented in this paper.

Métral, E; Assmann, R W; Baglin, V; Barnes, M J; Berrig, O E; Bertarelli, A; Bregliozzi, G; Calatroni, S; Carra, F; Caspers, F; Day, H A; Ferro-Luzzi, M; Gallilee, M A; Garion, C; Garlasche, M; Grudiev, A; Jimenez, J M; Jones, R; Kononenko, O; Losito, R; Nougaret, J L; Parma, V; Redaelli, S; Salvant, B; Strubin, P; Veness, R; Vollinger, C; Weterings, W

2013-01-01

157

Flood and coastal risk management outcome measures  

Flood and coastal risk management outcome measures are changing. A new framework of six outcome measures has been agreed. The new measures became effective on 1 April 2011 and will be in place for four years.

158

Legacy Risk Measure for Environmental Waste  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) is investigating the development of a comprehensive and quantitative risk model framework for environmental management activities at the site. Included are waste management programs (high-level waste, transuranic waste, low-level waste, mixed low-level waste, spent nuclear fuel, and special nuclear materials), major environmental restoration efforts, major decontamination and decommissioning projects, and planned long-term stewardship activities. Two basic types of risk estimates are included: risks from environmental management activities, and long-term legacy risks from wastes/materials. Both types of risks are estimated using the Environment, Safety, and Health Risk Assessment Program (ESHRAP) developed at the INEEL. Given these two types of risk calculations, the following evaluations can be performed: risk evaluation of an entire program (covering waste/material as it now exists through disposal or other e nd states); risk comparisons of alternative programs or activities; comparisons of risk benefit versus risk cost for activities or entire programs; ranking of programs or activities by risk; ranking of wastes/materials by risk; evaluation of site risk changes with time as activities progress; and integrated performance measurement using indicators such as injury/death and exposure rates. This paper discusses the definition and calculation of legacy risk measures and associated issues. The legacy risk measure is needed to support three of the seven types of evaluations listed above: comparisons of risk benefit versus risk cost, ranking of wastes/materials by risk, and evaluation of site risk changes with time

2002-02-24

159

Intelligent system for risk mitigation Sistema Inteligente de Mitigación de Riesgos.  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available the accumulation of experiences in project design, and the emergence of standards organizations and engaged in planning and administration of the same, have allowed their development has become an activity planned and controlled. Risk management during the life cycle of software development is a complex process closely linked to the domain with the development team on the subject. In its correct management will depend largely on the results, taking into account both technological advantages for the team will bring economic development, mitigating them. To have a tool that automates this, streamline the decision-making process, is essential. In Artificial Intelligence there are different knowledge-based techniques that allow solution of problems in different ways. One of the most common techniques is knowledge Based Systems, which are computer systems that use domain knowledge to solve problems pertaining to this. This solution is essentially the same as that obtained by a person experienced in the problem domain. It is of great importance to use the advantages provided by this type of systems for developing applications to streamline the process of managing risks. To this will be discussed in this article, showing that facilitates the use of minimal resources and higher quality.

La acumulación de experiencias en la concepción de proyectos, el surgimiento de organizaciones y estándares dedicados a la planificación y administración de los mismos, han permitido que su desarrollo se haya convertido en una actividad planificada y controlada. La gestión de riesgos es un proceso complejo estrechamente vinculado al dominio que tenga el equipo de desarrollo sobre el tema. De su correcta gestión dependerán gran parte de los resultados, teniendo en cuenta las ventajas que tanto tecnológicas como económicas reportará para el equipo de desarrollo la mitigación de los mismos. Los riesgos han de analizarse para propiciar el aprovechamiento de las diversas oportunidades que puedan ofrecer y de la misma forma, evitar que sean muy severos e irreparables, los daños que puedan provocar. Los sistemas basados en casos (SBC ayudan y agilizan la toma de decisiones simulando las cadenas de razonamiento que realiza un experto para resolver un problema de su dominio. Su vinculación con distintos elementos del proceso de desarrollo de software posibilita la obtención de resultados más acertados a partir del conocimiento que se les introduce basado en la experiencia acumulada. Actualmente el centro de Informatización para la Seguridad Ciudadana ISEC, ha enfrentado dificultades para una rápida y acertada gestión de riesgos. La utilización de las facilidades que brindan los SBC para la gestión de riesgos resultaría ventajoso al brindar las herramientas necesarias para que los líderes de proyecto, basados en experiencias anteriores, realicen una planificación más acertada, teniendo en cuenta los diversos contratiempos que pudieran surgir.

Yadira Ruiz Constanten

2012-09-01

160

Mitigating the consequences of extreme events on strategic facilities: evaluation of volcanic and seismic risk affecting the Caspian oil and gas pipelines in the Republic of Georgia.  

Science.gov (United States)

In this work we identify and quantify new seismic and volcanic risks threatening the strategic Caspian oil and gas pipelines through the Republic of Georgia, in the vicinity of the recent Abuli Samsari Volcanic Ridge, and evaluate risk reduction measures, mitigation measures, and monitoring. As regards seismic risk, we identified a major, NW-SE trending strike-slip fault; based on the analysis of fault planes along this major transcurrent structure, an about N-S trend of the maximum, horizontal compressive stress (?1) was determined, which is in good agreement with data instrumentally derived after the 1986, M 5.6 Paravani earthquake and its aftershock. Particularly notable is the strong alignment of volcanic vents along an about N-S trend that suggests a magma rising controlled by the about N-S-directed ?1. The original pipeline design included mitigation measures for seismic risk and other geohazards, including burial of the pipeline for its entire length, increased wall thickness, block valve spacing near recognized hazards, and monitoring of known landslide hazards. However, the design did not consider volcanic risk or the specific seismic hazards revealed by this study. The result of our analysis is that the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, as well as the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum South Caucasian natural gas pipeline (SCP) were designed in such a way that they significantly reduce the risk posed by the newly-identified geohazards in the vicinity of the Abuli-Samsari Ridge. No new measures are recommended for the pipeline itself as a result of this study. However, since the consequences of long-term shut-down would be very damaging to the economies of Western Europe, we conclude that the regionally significant BTC and SCP warrant greater protections, described in the final section of or work. The overall objective of our effort is to present the results in a matrix framework that allows the technical information to be used further in the decision-making process, with the goal of reducing the uncertainty in the final decision. This approach is applicable to the study of risks in other pipeline systems. PMID:21385663

Pasquarè, F A; Tormey, D; Vezzoli, L; Okrostsvaridze, A; Tutberidze, B

2011-07-01

 
 
 
 
161

Vector-valued Coherent Risk Measures  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

We define a coherent risk measures as set-valued maps satisfying some axioms. We show that this definition is a convenient extension of the real-valued risk measures introduced by Artzner, Delbaen, Eber and Heath (1998). We then discuss the aggregation issue, i.e. the passage from valued random portofolio to valued measure of Risk. Necessary and sufficient conditions of coherent aggregation are provided

Jouini, Elye?s; Meddeb, Moncef; Touzi, Nizar

2004-01-01

162

From Smile Asymptotics to Market Risk Measures  

CERN Multimedia

The left tail of the implied volatility skew, coming from quotes on out-of-the-money put options, can be thought to reflect the market's assessment of the risk of a huge drop in stock prices. We analyze how this market information can be integrated into the theoretical framework of convex monetary measures of risk. In particular, we make use of indifference pricing by dynamic convex risk measures, which are given as solutions of backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs), to establish a link between these two approaches to risk measurement. We derive a characterization of the implied volatility in terms of the solution of a nonlinear PDE and provide a small time-to-maturity expansion and numerical solutions. This procedure allows to choose convex risk measures in a conveniently parametrized class, distorted entropic dynamic risk measures, which we introduce here, such that the asymptotic volatility skew under indifference pricing can be matched with the market skew.

Sircar, Ronnie

2011-01-01

163

Anthrax letters: personal exposure, building contamination, and effectiveness of immediate mitigation measures.  

Science.gov (United States)

This report is the first detailed and quantitative study of potential mitigation procedures intended to deal with anthrax letters using a simulated anthrax letter release within an actual office building. Spore aerosols were created by opening letters containing 0.1 g of dry powdered Bacillus atrophaeus spores. Culturable aerosol samples were collected using slit-to-agar and filter-based samplers. Five test scenarios were designed to determine whether simple mitigation procedures or activities carried out by the person who opened the letter made a significant difference to aerosol concentrations in comparison to a control scenario where no activity took place. Surface contamination of the letter opener was measured at 10 body points for Scenarios 1 to 4. A sixth scenario, based on published Centers for Disease Control and Prevention anthrax letter response guidelines, used letters containing 1 g of spores. Results demonstrated that the spore aerosol spread throughout the building in less than 4.5 min. Potential mitigation techniques such as closing the office door or shutting off the ventilation system were not effective. Activities carried out by the letter opener including moving, walking to another location, and spraying water onto the contaminated desk with a hand sprayer all resulted in significantly higher aerosol concentrations in comparison to control. The potential total inhalational hazard for the letter opener during the five test scenarios ranged from 4.1 x 10(5) to 1.6 x 10(6) colony forming units (CFU) compared to 3.9 x 10(5) CFU for the control. Surface contamination of the letter opener (Scenarios 1 to 4) was highest on the right hip (4.8 x 10(4) to 1.0 x 10(5) CFU/cm(- 2)) and lowest on the right or left side of the head (2.2 x 10(2) to 3.7 x 10(3) CFU/cm(-2)). The statistically based methodology used in this study provided the means to objectively assess anthrax letter protocols to determine their effectiveness under realistic conditions. Potential mitigation procedures tested in this study did not reduce aerosol hazard or surface contamination. PMID:19916102

Kournikakis, Bill; Ho, Jim; Duncan, Scott

2010-02-01

164

Raptor mortality in wind farms of southern Spain: mitigation measures on a major migration bottleneck area  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Full text: To assess and monitor the impact of wind farms on fauna is crucial if we want to achieve ecologically sustainable development of this renewable energy resource. Today there are clear evidences that the probability of raptor collision depends critically on species behaviour and weather conditions, and the topographic factors related to each windmill. In our study area EIA were not able to predict this differential risk and in these circumstances mitigating the causes of bird mortality becomes a task of major importance, especially to those wind farms located in the Strait of Gibraltar, a water crossing of 14 km at its shortest distance acting as a major migration bottleneck for Paleo-African soaring migrants. We collected all available information on raptor collision from 1992, when the first wind farm was installed, and from 2005 until present a total of 262 turbines, grouped into 20 wind farms, were surveyed in a daily basis through a surveillance program with the main goal of register the actual mortality of birds. A total of 1291 raptors of 19 species were found of which 78.5% correspond to two species, the griffon vulture (Gyps fulvus) and the kestrel (Falco tinnunculus). In order to mitigate the impact on raptors, and particularly on the griffon vulture, in 2007 a program based on selective stopping of turbines was imposed, in collaboration with the environmental competent authority, on new approved projects. During 2008 there was a reduction in mortality by 48%, which remained in 2009 with a remarkably lower economic cost. An analysis of the temporal collision patterns will be presented and discussed, with special attention to those species suffering higher mortality rate, and to those who have some degree of threat. (Author)

Gallego, Antonio-Roman Munoz; Lucas, Manuela De; Casado, Eva; Ferrer, Miguel

2011-07-01

165

Observational studies in South African mines to mitigate seismic risks: implications for mine safety and tectonic earthquakes  

Science.gov (United States)

Seismicity poses a significant risk to workers in deep and overstressed mines, such as the gold mines in the Witwatersrand basin of South Africa, as well as inhabitants of earthquake-prone regions such as Japan. A 5-year collaborative project entitled "Observational studies in South African mines to mitigate seismic risks" was launched in 2010 to address these risks, drawing on over a century of South African and Japanese research experience with respect to mining-related and tectonic earthquakes, respectively. The project has three main aims: (1) to learn more about earthquake preparation and triggering mechanisms by deploying arrays of sensitive sensors within rock volumes where mining is likely to induce seismic activity; (2) to learn more about earthquake rupture and rockburst damage phenomena by deploying robust strong ground motion sensors close to potential fault zones and on stope hangingwalls; and (3) to upgrade the South African surface national seismic network in the mining districts. Research sites have been established at mines operated by Sibanye Gold (Hlanganani Shaft and Cooke #4 Shaft) and Anglogold Ashanti (Moab-Khotsong). More than 70 boreholes (totalling more than 2.8 km in length) have been drilled to locate "capable" faults i.e. faults that are considered likely to become seismically active as a result of mining activity and to deploy sensors. Acoustic emission sensors, strain- and tilt meters, and controlled seismic sources were installed to monitor the deformation of the rock mass, the accumulation of damage during the earthquake preparation phase, and changes in dynamic stress produced by the propagation of the rupture front. These data are being integrated with measurements of rock properties, stope closure, stope strong motion, seismic data recorded by the mine-wide network, and stress modelling. The mid-point of the 5-year project has passed. New observations of stress and the response of the rock mass to mining have already been made, and many more are expected in the next two years as the mining front sweeps through the monitoring arrays. We will describe examples of technology adaptation and transfer, as well as preliminary research findings. The strain cell and associated tools required for the compact conical-ended borehole overcoring (CCBO) technique, which determines the 3D stress tensor by a single overcoring of a strain cell, have been reduced to the core size used in South African mines. This modified method was tested at three sites, where it was demonstrated that three overcoring measurements can be made within two shifts. A large number of acoustic emission (AE) sensors were installed at Cooke #4 mine. In the period from 30 September to 5 October in 2011 the monitoring system automatically located 40,555 AE, some of which were located by Moriya et al. using the joint hypocenter location method. Moriya et al. applied the multiplet and the double-difference analysis to the selected multiplets, successfully delineating multiple planar structures. Ultimately we hope that this project will produce knowledge and technology that will reduce the risk posed by both mining-induced and tectonic earthquakes

Durrheim, Raymond; Ogaswara, Hiroshi; Nakatani, Masao; Yabe, Yasuo; Milev, Alexander; Cichowicz, Artur; Kawakata, Hironori; Moriya, Hirokazu; Naoi, Makoto; Kgarume, Thabang; Murakami, Osamu; Mngadi, Siyanda

2014-05-01

166

From Smile Asymptotics to Market Risk Measures  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The left tail of the implied volatility skew, coming from quotes on out-of-the-money put options, can be thought to reflect the market's assessment of the risk of a huge drop in stock prices. We analyze how this market information can be integrated into the theoretical framework of convex monetary measures of risk. In particular, we make use of indifference pricing by dynamic convex risk measures, which are given as solutions of backward stochastic differential equations (BS...

Sircar, Ronnie; Sturm, Stephan

2011-01-01

167

Money Matters: Mitigating risk to spark private investments in energy efficiency  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Scaling-up investment in energy efficiency is essential to achieving a sustainable energy future. Despite energy efficiency's recognised advantages as a bankable investment with immense climate change mitigation benefits, most of the energy efficiency potential remains untapped and the investment gap to achieve climate goals is tremendous. This report seeks to improve understanding as to why this is so, and what can be done about it.

NONE

2010-07-01

168

Soil bioengineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on the autochthonal plants suitable for these kinds of interventions and on the economic efficiency of the interventions is essential for the dissemination of such techniques. The present paper is focused on these two issues as related to the realization of various typologies of soil bioengineering works in the humid tropics ...

Petrone, A.; Preti, F.

2010-01-01

169

Risk evaluation of the alternate-3A modification to the ATWS prevention/mitigation system in a BWR-4, Mark-II power plant  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Purpose of this paper is to present a risk evaluation of the ATWS Alternate 3A modification (ATWS-3A) proposed by NRC staff in NUREG-0460 to the ATWS prevention/mitigation system in a BWR nuclear power plant. The evaluation is done relative to three risk indices: the frequency of core damage, the expected early fatalities, and the expected latent fatalities

1983-09-01

170

Marine and Hydrokinetic Renewable Energy Technologies: Potential Navigational Impacts and Mitigation Measures  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

On April 15, 2008, the Department of Energy (DOE) issued a Funding Opportunity Announcement for Advanced Water Power Projects which included a Topic Area for Marine and Hydrokinetic Renewable Energy Market Acceleration Projects. Within this Topic Area, DOE identified potential navigational impacts of marine and hydrokinetic renewable energy technologies and measures to prevent adverse impacts on navigation as a sub-topic area. DOE defines marine and hydrokinetic technologies as those capable of utilizing one or more of the following resource categories for energy generation: ocean waves; tides or ocean currents; free flowing water in rivers or streams; and energy generation from the differentials in ocean temperature. PCCI was awarded Cooperative Agreement DE-FC36-08GO18177 from the DOE to identify the potential navigational impacts and mitigation measures for marine hydrokinetic technologies, as summarized herein. The contract also required cooperation with the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) and two recipients of awards (Pacific Energy Ventures and reVision) in a sub-topic area to develop a protocol to identify streamlined, best-siting practices. Over the period of this contract, PCCI and our sub-consultants, David Basco, Ph.D., and Neil Rondorf of Science Applications International Corporation, met with USCG headquarters personnel, with U.S. Army Corps of Engineers headquarters and regional personnel, with U.S. Navy regional personnel and other ocean users in order to develop an understanding of existing practices for the identification of navigational impacts that might occur during construction, operation, maintenance, and decommissioning. At these same meetings, “standard” and potential mitigation measures were discussed so that guidance could be prepared for project developers. Concurrently, PCCI reviewed navigation guidance published by the USCG and international community. This report summarizes the results of this effort, provides guidance in the form of a checklist for assessing the navigational impacts of potential marine and hydrokinetic projects, and provides guidance for improving the existing navigational guidance promulgated by the USCG in Navigation Vessel Inspection Circular 02 07. At the request of the USCG, our checklist and mitigation guidance was written in a generic nature so that it could be equally applied to offshore wind projects. PCCI teleconferenced on a monthly basis with DOE, Pacific Energy Ventures and reVision in order to share information and review work products. Although the focus of our effort was on marine and hydrokinetic technologies, as defined above, this effort drew upon earlier work by the USCG on offshore wind renewable energy installations. The guidance provided herein can be applied equally to marine and hydrokinetic technologies and to offshore wind, which are collectively referred to by the USCG as Renewable Energy Installations.

Cool, Richard, M.; Hudon, Thomas, J.; Basco, David, R.; Rondorf, Neil, E.

2009-12-10

171

Analysis of hydrogen risk mitigation with passive autocatalytic recombiner system in CPR1000 NPP during a hypothetical station blackout  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Highlights: ? We analyze the hydrogen risk in CPR1000 during station blackout with GASFLOW code. ? Hydrogen detonation likely occurs during the accident. ? Application of PAR system could eliminate the hydrogen risk. ? The condensation model with McAdams correlation performs better in validation work. ? It predicts the hydrogen risk conservatively in some compartments. - Abstract: Hydrogen safety has attracted extensive concern in severe accident analysis especially after the Fukushima accident. In this study, a similar station blackout as happened in Fukushima accident is simulated for CPR1000 nuclear power plant (NPP) model, with the computational fluid dynamic code GASFLOW. The hydrogen risk is analyzed with the assessment of efficiency of passive autocatalytic recombiner (PAR) system. The numerical results show that the CPR1000 containment may be damaged by global flame acceleration (FA) and local detonation caused by hydrogen combustion if no hydrogen mitigation system (HMS) is applied. A new condensation model is developed and validated in this study for the consideration of natural circulation flow pattern and presence of non-condensable gases. The new condensation model is more conservative in hydrogen risk evaluation than the current model in some compartments, giving earlier starting time of deflagration to detonation transition (DDT). The results also indicate that the PAR system installed in CPR1000 could prevent the occurrence of the FA and DDT. Therefore, HMS such as PAR system is suggested to be applied in NPPs to avoid the radioactive leak caused by containment failure.

2011-12-01

172

Dynamic strain measurement system with fiber Bragg gratings and noise mitigation techniques  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A low-cost fiber Bragg grating (FBG) vibrometer specifically suited for structural monitoring and aimed at the detection of low-amplitude vibrations is presented. The optical system exploits an intensity modulation principle of operation, while signal processing techniques are used to complement the transducer to improve the performances: a recursive least-squares adaptive filter improves the noise power mitigation by 14 dB, and an efficient spectral estimator permits operating spectral analysis even under high noise conditions. With these methods, a strain sensitivity of 5.6 n? has been achieved in the ±60 µ? range. Experimental assessment tests carried out in typical structural monitoring contexts have demonstrated that the developed sensor is well suited to measure mechanical perturbations of different structures

2009-06-01

173

Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) and Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV). Policy brief  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) is a new instrument being developed under the international climate regime. NAMAs may provide interesting opportunities for Ghana to access international finance, technology and capacity building for policies that promote sustainable development and greenhouse gas reduction. Ghana has already submitted a list of 55 potential NAMAs to the UNFCCC, but further work would be needed before submitting a NAMA proposal for funding. Fast start climate finance may be accessible for the development and implementation of NAMA proposals. As discussed in the international climate negotiations, NAMAs and the support pledged for their implementation will probably have to be measured, reported and verified (MRV-ed) in accordance with guidelines which are to be developed. MRV would provide valuable information to both the Ghanaian government and the international donors regarding the implementation of the NAMA and the support being provided.

Bakker, S.J.A.; Wuertenberger, L. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands)

2010-11-15

174

Induction motor voltage flicker analysis and its mitigation measures using custom power devices: A case study  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This paper suggests methods for estimating short time flicker (PST severity on 22/3.3 kV network supplying induction motor loads of municipal integrated water pumping system. The impact of additional connection of induction motors to the same system has been analyzed. Measurements are done at the point of common coupling (PCC to identify background short time flicker levels and the contribution of the already operating induction motors. The paper also analyses and compares different voltage flicker mitigation methodologies to assess their performance with change in line impedance phase angle for this particular application. Here, Matlab-7.01/PSB is used to present the detailed results of all voltage flickers compensating methodologies and to assess the impact of line impedance X/R sweep on effectiveness of custom power devices. It is observed that distribution static synchronous compensator (DSTATCOM is found more effective for compensating voltage flicker generated by the induction motor load.

SANJAY. A. DEOKAR,

2010-12-01

175

Policies, measures and the monitoring needs of forest sector carbon mitigation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Forest sector mitigation options can be grouped into three categories: (1) management for carbon (C) conservation, (2) management for C storage, and (3) management for C conservation and sequestration worldwide and the average costs of achieving it. It reviews policy measures that have been successfully applied at regional and project levels toward reduction of atmospheric greenhouse gases. It also describes both national programs and jointly implemented international activities. The monitoring methods, and the items to monitor, differ across these categories. Remote sensing is a good approach for the monitoring of C conservation, but not for C substitution, which requires estimation of the fossil fuels that would be displaced and the continued monitoring of electricity generation sources. C storage, on the other hand, includes C in products which may be traded internationally. Their monitoring will require that bi- or multi-lateral protocols be set up for this purpose. 1 fig., 4 tabs., 23 refs

1997-10-01

176

Evaluation of possible mitigation measures to prevent introduction and spread of African swine fever virus through wild boar  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This scientific report has been prepared in response to a request for urgent scientific and technical assistance under Art 31 of Regulation (EC No 178/2002, in relation to possible mitigation measures to prevent introduction and spread of African swine fever virus (ASFV. It was requested to assess the feasibility to drastically reduce the wild boar population by hunting or by the use of traps, and to assess if prevention of movement of wild boars by feeding or by artificial physical barriers reduces the risk of spread of ASFV. No evidence was found in scientific literature proving that wild boar populations can be drastically reduced by hunting or trapping in Europe. The main reasons are the adaptive behaviour of wild boar, compensatory growth of the population and the possible influx of wild boar from adjacent areas. Thus, drastic hunting is not a tool to reduce the risk for introduction and spread of ASFV in wild boar populations. Furthermore, wild boar density thresholds for introduction, spread and persistence of ASFV in the wild boar populations are currently impossible to establish, due to the uncertainty regarding the extent of the spread and maintenance of ASFV, the biases in population datasets, the complex population structures and dynamics. Furthermore, attempts to drastically reduce wild boar populations may even increase transmission and facilitate progressive geographical spread of ASFV, since intensive hunting pressure on wild boar populations leads to dispersion of groups and individuals. Artificial feeding of wild boar might increase the risk of ASFV spread. Fencing can restrict wild boar movements, however further knowledge of the ASF epidemiology and spatial distribution of wild boar is required to identify the areas where fencing could be used as one possible element of a control programme and to assess the feasibility of its implementation.

European Food Safety Authority

2014-03-01

177

Measurement requirements for a near-Earth asteroid impact mitigation demonstration mission  

CERN Document Server

A concept for an Impact Mitigation Preparation Mission, called Don Quijote, is to send two spacecraft to a Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA): an Orbiter and an Impactor. The Impactor collides with the asteroid while the Orbiter measures the resulting change in the asteroid's orbit, by means of a Radio Science Experiment (RSE) carried out before and after impact. Three parallel Phase A studies on Don Quijote were carried out for the European Space Agency: the research presented here reflects outcomes of the study by QinetiQ. We discuss the mission objectives with regards to the prioritisation of payload instruments, with emphasis on the interpretation of the impact. The Radio Science Experiment is described and it is examined how solar radiation pressure may increase the uncertainty in measuring the orbit of the target asteroid. It is determined that to measure the change in orbit accurately a thermal IR spectrometer is mandatory, to measure the Yarkovsky effect. The advantages of having a laser altimeter are discusse...

Wolters, Stephen D; Wells, Nigel; Saunders, Christopher; McBride, Neil

2011-01-01

178

Measuring Idiosyncratic Risk : Implications for Capital Flows  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This paper offers two refinements of the traditional risk measure based on the volatility of growth. First, we condition GDP growth on structural characteristics of the host country that move only slowly and therefore can be partly predicted by an investor. Second, we adjust conditional risk for the systematic components due to the global and regional interdependence between alternative investment locations. The decomposition of conditional risk into its systematic and idiosyncratic component...

Sunesen, Eva Rytter

2006-01-01

179

Valuations and dynamic convex risk measures  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This paper approaches the definition and properties of dynamic convex risk measures through the notion of a family of concave valuation operators satisfying certain simple and credible axioms. Exploring these in the simplest context of a finite time set and finite sample space, we find natural risk-transfer and time-consistency properties for a firm seeking to spread its risk across a group of subsidiaries.

Jobert, A.; Rogers, L. C. G.

2007-01-01

180

The GSFC Combined Approach of ODC Stockpiling and Tribological Testing to Mitigate the Risks of ODC Elimination  

Science.gov (United States)

In response to the elimination of production of several Ozone Depleting Chemicals (ODC's) which have been widely used in successful space flight mechanism cleaning and lubricating procedures, GSFC developed and implemented an overall philosophy of mitigating the risks to flight hardware during the transition phase to ODC-free cleaning procedures. The short term leg of the philosophy was the stockpiling of an appropriate amount of ODC solvents such that all short term GSFC missions will be able to stay with or revert to heritage cleaning and lubricating procedures in the face of life issues. The long-term leg of that philosophy was the initiation of a several tier testing program that will deliver increasing amounts of information over the next few years, starting with accelerated lubricant life tests that compare lubricant life on surfaces cleaned with ODC solvents with lubricant life on surfaces cleaned with ODC-free solvents. While tribological testing, mechanism life testing and space-flight experience will ultimately bring us into the 21st century with environmentally friendly means of cleaning long-life precision mechanism components, many satellites will be launched over the next few years before a number of important tribological questions can be answered. In order to prepare for this challenge, the Materials Engineering Branch in cooperation with the Electromechanical Branch launched an intensive review of all ongoing missions. The failure risk was determined for each long-life lubricated mechanism based on a number of parameters, including 4 comparison of flight solvents used to clean the heritage/life test hardware. Also studied was the ability of the mechanism manufacturers to stockpile ODC's based on state laws and company policies. A stockpiling strategy was constructed based on this information and subsequently implemented. This paper provides an overview of the GSFC ODC elimination risk mitigation philosophy as well as a detailed examination of the development of the ODC stockpiling plan.

Predmore, Roamer; LeBoeuf, Claudia; Hovanec, Andrew

1997-01-01

 
 
 
 
181

Relevance of Fukushima Nuclear Accident to India: Nuclear Radiation Risk and Interventions to Mitigate Adverse Fallout  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The environmental radiation release from Fukushima nuclear power following tsunami in Japan has once again highlighted the omnipotent risk of radiation injury in the today’s world. India is at a real risk from radiation fallout both due to nuclear power plant accidents and nuclear warfare threat. The risk from nuclear radiation accident in India is further increased by the region being endemic for iodine deficiency as adverse effects following nuclear radiation fallout like thy...

Yadav Kapil, Varshney Neha

2012-01-01

182

DimeRisk Project: Development of an educational and training program for the prevention and mitigation of seismic risk in Spain  

Science.gov (United States)

In Spain, due to the low recurrence of earthquakes in the last century, there is no awareness of seismic risk and prevention plans. For this reason, moderate magnitude earthquakes have generated significant damage and casualties. However, the risk is evident, in Spain during the nineteenth century there were more than five destructive earthquakes with intensities greater than VIII (e.g. Arenas del Rey IX-X, Torrevieja IX-X). A recent example was the 2011 Lorca earthquake, that with moderate magnitudes and intensities (magnitude Mw 5.2, intensity VI) it struck a populated area with old historic buildings and a population unprepared (9 victims, 324 injured, 1,200 million in reparations). In this earthquake many errors were found in the behavior of the population and in the basic self-protection measures. Many countries have educational programs that significantly reduce the damage and losses caused by earthquakes. The objective of this project (Dimerisk project) is to generate training and educational materials that help mitigate the damage and losses caused by earthquakes. This project is based on plans of experienced countries (e.g. U.S.A., Italy, Mexico, New Zealand) but having into account the mistakes made in the last earthquake in Spain, and also the characteristics of the Spanish educational system and building characteristics. This project has been founded by FUNDACION MAPFRE. The team is formed by geologist, earthquake researchers and teachers at secondary schools and universities. The ultimate goal is to generate material that can inform about the seismic and geological processes that participate in an earthquake and the basics of self-protection against earthquakes. This project has focused on scenarios (offices, factories, homes, education centers) and educational levels (schools, colleges and universities). Educational materials have been also developed for different educational levels with basic concepts related to seismicity, how to behave during an earthquake, drills, and the main actions to protect non-structural building elements. Though some of these activities have already been tested in classrooms, its implementation in educational centers in the town of Lorca will be carried out. As a final task, all this material will be reported in the form of manuals to be distributed to government agencies, ministry of education, regional councils, civil protection, etc. Acknowledgments: This work has been supported by FUNDACION MAPFRE "Ayudas a la investigación 2012"

Martín-González, Fidel; Martín-Velazquez, Silvia; Giner-Robles, Jorge; Martínez-Díaz, Jose Jesus; Rodríguez-Pascua, Miguel Angel; Béjar, Marta; Pérez-López, Raul; López, Jose Antonio; Morales, Javier; Barranco, Ana; Palomo, Isabel

2014-05-01

183

Registries Help Moms Measure Medication Risks  

Science.gov (United States)

... Products Vaccines, Blood & Biologics Articulos en Espanol Registries Help Moms Measure Medication Risks Search the Consumer Updates ... cancer, diabetes, and asthma, Feibus says the data help women make informed choices. “Sometimes leaving a serious ...

184

Measurement Implications of "A Nation at Risk."  

Science.gov (United States)

The implications of "A Nation at Risk" for the field of measurement are examined. These are a need for more frequent and varied tests; responsibility for eliminating measurement problems; and a resurgence of standardized testing at the high school level. The need for measures of teaching quality will increase. (DWH)

Hogan, Thomas P.

1983-01-01

185

UNDERSTANDING METHANE EMISSIONS SOURCES AND VIABLE MITIGATION MEASURES IN THE NATURAL GAS TRANSMISSION SYSTEMS: RUSSIAN AND U.S. EXPERIENCE  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This article will compare the natural gas transmission systems in the U.S. and Russia and review experience with methane mitigation technologies in the two countries. Russia and the United States (U.S.) are the world's largest consumers and producers of natural gas, and consequently, have some of the largest natural gas infrastructure. This paper compares the natural gas transmission systems in Russia and the U.S., their methane emissions and experiences in implementing methane mitigation technologies. Given the scale of the two systems, many international oil and natural gas companies have expressed interest in better understanding the methane emission volumes and trends as well as the methane mitigation options. This paper compares the two transmission systems and documents experiences in Russia and the U.S. in implementing technologies and programs for methane mitigation. The systems are inherently different. For instance, while the U.S. natural gas transmission system is represented by many companies, which operate pipelines with various characteristics, in Russia predominately one company, Gazprom, operates the gas transmission system. However, companies in both countries found that reducing methane emissions can be feasible and profitable. Examples of technologies in use include replacing wet seals with dry seals, implementing Directed Inspection and Maintenance (DI&M) programs, performing pipeline pump-down, applying composite wrap for non-leaking pipeline defects and installing low-bleed pneumatics. The research methodology for this paper involved a review of information on methane emissions trends and mitigation measures, analytical and statistical data collection; accumulation and analysis of operational data on compressor seals and other emission sources; and analysis of technologies used in both countries to mitigate methane emissions in the transmission sector. Operators of natural gas transmission systems have many options to reduce natural gas losses. Depending on the value of gas, simple, low-cost measures, such as adjusting leaking equipment components, or larger-scale measures, such as installing dry seals on compressors, can be applied.

Ishkov, A.; Akopova, Gretta; Evans, Meredydd; Yulkin, Grigory; Roshchanka, Volha; Waltzer, Suzie; Romanov, K.; Picard, David; Stepanenko, O.; Neretin, D.

2011-10-01

186

78 FR 30313 - Standardizing and Evaluating Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies; Notice of Public Meeting...  

Science.gov (United States)

...bring, at least annually, one or more drugs with REMS with elements to assure safe use (ETASU) before the Drug Safety and Risk Management Advisory Committee. FDA also regularly discusses both pre- and postapproval REMS with ETASUs with...

2013-05-22

187

Dissolved organic carbon interferences in UV nitrate measurements and possible mitigation methods  

Science.gov (United States)

Nitrate can be the limiting nutrient in many aquatic ecosystems and has been implicated in the degradation of surface and ground water quality. Understanding its fate and transport requires measurements at high temporal resolution in situ for extended periods of time to observe a range of natural and anthropogenic inputs. These measurements are most efficiently made by in situ sensors, preferably without chemical manipulation. The development of in situ ultraviolet spectrometers with high spectral resolution (0.8 nm) and short response time (1 s) have provided the ability to make in situ measurements of nitrate concentration by measuring its absorbance in the UV wavelengths (200nm-400nm). Like many other regions, springs in Florida have shown increasing nitrate levels in recent years. Because many spring runs in Florida ultimately enter highly colored rivers with high humic DOC content, UV nitrate analyzers cannot operate according to specifications under such light limiting conditions and can result in erroneous or even unattainable readings. Here we present an analysis of interferences caused by dissolved organic carbon (DOC) on the measured nitrate concentration by the Satlantic SUNA (Submersible Ultraviolet Nitrate Analyzer). Dissolved organic carbon absorption of UV irradiation is well documented in the literature and the results of this study clearly demonstrate that high DOC concentrations impact in situ sensor nitrate concentration measurements. Interferences caused by DOC were estimated through bench tests of natural water collected from the upper reaches of the Santa Fe River (USGS Monitoring Station 2322700) and found to have DOC concentration of approximately 50 mg/L and N03 concentration of 0.04 mg/L. The SUNA was operated in a continuous sample mode (about 1 sample per second) to measure nitrate concentrations in this water that was diluted to DOC concentrations of 2.5, 5.0, 10.0, and 12.5 mg/L DOC and nitrate concentrations of 0.05, 0.10, 0.20, 0.50, and 1.00 mg/L NO3. Each DOC dilution and standard was measured for 5 minutes. At concentrations above 10 mg/L, the error associated with the measurements was > 15%. Below that concentration the error was 5%. Analysis of the spectral data of this experiment and from the study site indicate that significant attenuation at UV wavelengths causes most of the loss of the nitrate signal and error. It is thus critical that the DOC be removed or deactivated as part of the in situ UV-based nitrate analysis. While this attenuation could be overcome by shortening the path length of the light beam, a shortened pathlength would also reduce sensitivity. To remove the DOC interference, we have constructed a UV photoreactor by winding 7 m of PTFE tubing around a quartz tube. The assembly was wrapped in reflective aluminum foil. A low-pressure UV lamp (10 Watts output, 95% emitted at the mercury resonance wavelength of 254 nm) was placed inside the quartz tube. This method should mitigate interferences caused by DOC. The extent of mitigation is currently being determined and will be described in the presentation.

Thomas, R. G.; Foster, C. R.; Cohen, M. J.; Martin, J. B.; Delfino, J. J.

2010-12-01

188

Dam break modelling, risk assessment and uncertainty analysis for flood mitigation:  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

In this thesis a range of modelling techniques is explored to deal effectively with flood risk management. In particular, attention is paid to floods caused by failure of hydraulic structures such as dams and dikes. The methods considered here are applied for simulating dam and dike failure events, flood water routing in downstream areas, and flood risk reduction, providing a unified framework for addressing a variety of flood related events. Numerical, statistical and constraint based method...

2007-01-01

189

The Pepcon Disaster-Causative Factors and potential Preventive and Mitigative Measures  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

On May 4, 1988, the PEPCON plant experienced three major and several smaller explosions that caused over $70 million in property damage and caused two deaths. The PEPCON plant produced Ammonium Perchlorate (AP), a major ingredient for rocket fuel. The PEPCON plant and the nearby Kidd Marshmallow plant were totally destroyed by the detonations. The initiating event for the explosions was a fire that originated in the Batch Dryer Building and spread to adjacent storage. Several factors combined to cause the AP in the major storage fields to detonate, the most important being lack of adequate separation between storage units. Welding and flame cutting procedure with poor fire watch protocol was the prime candidate for fire ignition. There were no automatic fire suppression systems at the plant. Buildings including the Batch Dryer Building were made of combustible building material (fiberglass). There was poor housekeeping and no control of AP dust generation. AP was stored in combustible polyethylene drums, aluminum tote bins, 30-gallon steel storage drums and fiber reinforced tote bags. There were high-density storage practices. In addition, a contributing factor to the rapid fire-spread was that the wind that day was blowing directly from the batch dryer building to the storage areas. This paper claims that if codes, standards, and well-known hazard identification safety techniques were implemented at PEPCON, then the disaster would have been averted. A limited scope probabilistic risk assessment was conducted to establish the effectiveness of various preventive and mitigative features that could have been deployed to avert the disaster. The major hazard at the PEPCON site was fire and explosion involving the processing, production and storage of AP, which was then and is currently stored as a class 4 oxidizer. Since minute quantities of contamination can cause AP to be detonable by shock, there has been an ongoing debate concerning its reclassification to a class-A explosive.

Lambert, H E; Alvares, N J

2003-07-25

190

L-Band Digital Aeronautical Communications System Engineering - Initial Safety and Security Risk Assessment and Mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract NNC05CA85C, Task 7: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed L-band (960 to 1164 MHz) terrestrial en route communications system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents a preliminary safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the L-band communication system after the technology is chosen and system rollout timing is determined. The security risk analysis resulted in identifying main security threats to the proposed system as well as noting additional threats recommended for a future security analysis conducted at a later stage in the system development process. The document discusses various security controls, including those suggested in the COCR Version 2.0.

Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

2011-01-01

191

The Natural Banach Space for Version Independent Risk Measures  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Risk measures, or coherent measures of risk are often considered on the space $L^\\infty$, and important theorems on risk measures build on that space. Other risk measures, among them the most important risk measure – the Average Value-at-Risk – are well-defined on the larger space $L^1$ and this seems to be the natural domain space for this risk measure. Spectral risk measures constitute a further class of risk measures of central importance, and they are often considered on some $L^...

Pichler, Alois

2013-01-01

192

Effects of Using Compost as a Preventive Measure to Mitigate Shoulder Cracking: Laboratory and Field Studies.  

Science.gov (United States)

Compost materials, given their moisture affinity, fibrous and low permeability characteristics, could provide stabilization of natural expansive subgrades by mitigating shrinkage cracking. In order to understand possible mechanisms of this stabilization, ...

A. J. Puppala N. Intharasombat S. Qasim

2004-01-01

193

Using inferred drivers of discarding behaviour to evaluate discard mitigation measures  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Discards refer to the part of the catch not retained on board during commercial fishing operations, but returned to the sea. The proposed European Union Common Fisheries Policy reform, to be implemented in 2014, sets out a gradual elimination of discards by reducing unwanted catches and ensuring that all catches are landed. To develop successful discard mitigation measures, it is necessary to identify the reasons for discarding. Here, we have developed a simple model that can be applied to data from observer programmes (ObsPs) to establish the contribution of different drivers of discarding behaviour. The analysis makes inferences on the causes of discarding by partitioning discards into four categories based on the length of the fish and the associated regulatory restrictions. The drivers are defined as: fish discarded below the legalminimum landing size; fish forwhich there is no market and that do not have aminimum landing size; fish for which there are inconsistencies in market and sorting practices; and discards that can be attributed to fishersâ?? responses to quota restrictions. The approach is applied to data generated from ObsPs from five EuropeanMember States. All the inferred drivers contribute to the total discard quantity. Their relative contributions vary widely across countries, areas, gears, and species

Catchpole, T.L.; Feekings, Jordan P.

2013-01-01

194

Numerical investigation of mitigation measures of longwall mining impacts on groundwater resources  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Longwall mining potentially induces large strains in the overlying strata that in turn may result in a strongly heterogeneous and anisotropic hydraulic conductivity field. Effects of this complex hydromechanical coupling process may cause temporary or even permanent loss of groundwater resources due to drainage into the mine. A methodology is developed to define the impact of longwall mining on groundwater resources through evaluating changes in post-mining hydraulic conductivity field as a result of mining-induced strains. Relationships linking changes in hydraulic conductivity and mining-induced strain are defined through the assumption of an equivalent porous medium. A nonlinear finite element hydromechanical model, developed based on this methodology, is used to investigate the potential benefit of mitigation measures, including backstowing and shortwall mining. Numerical results indicate that longwall mining with backstowing may reduce the hydraulic conductivity by one to two orders of magnitude than longwall mining without backstowing, and that shortwall mining may actually increase the hydraulic conductivity by one to two orders of magnitude over conventional-width longwall mining. 13 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs.

Liu, J.; Elsworth, D.; Brady, B.H. [University of Queensland, Brisbane, Qld. (Australia). Dept. of Mining, Minerals and Materials Engineering

1997-12-31

195

Risk measures with non-Gaussian fluctuations  

CERN Multimedia

Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modeling the power-law tails of the returns distribution in terms of a Student-$t$ (or Tsallis) distribution. Non-Gaussian closed-form solutions for Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall are obtained and standard formulae known in the literature under the normality assumption are recovered as a special case. The implications of the approach for risk management are demonstrated through an empirical analysis of financial time series from the Italian stock market. Detailed comparison with the results of the widely used procedures of quantitative finance, such as parametric normal approach, RiskMetrics methodology and historical simulation, as well as with previous findings in the literature, are shown and commented. Particular attention is paid to quantify the size of the errors affecting the risk measures obtaine...

Bormetti, G; Montagna, G; Nicrosini, O

2006-01-01

196

Ready for the Storm: Education for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

Incidences of disaster and climate change impacts are rising globally. Disaster risk reduction and climate change education are two educational responses to present and anticipated increases in the severity and frequency of hazards. They share significant complementarities and potential synergies, the latter as yet largely unexploited. Three…

Kagawa, Fumiyo; Selby, David

2012-01-01

197

77 FR 26292 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals...  

Science.gov (United States)

...industry describing the best practices for conducting...available an issue paper that discusses our...FDA will do its best to accommodate requests...developed an issue paper entitled ``Risk...time in identifying best methodological practices...discussed in the issue paper. Feedback...

2012-05-03

198

Wildlife damages, mitigation measures and livelihood issues around Chitwan National Park, Nepal  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Human-wildlife conflict is closely associated with the economics and social well being of the local people. It occurs worldwide and its frequency and severity have been rising annually, especially in Chitwan National Park. Crop damage and loss of livestock by wildlife from park are some of the major causes of park-people conflict in Chitwan National Park. In response to these damages, local people employ different defensive measures to alleviate the losses or reduce the risk of wildlife damag...

2014-01-01

199

Power Outage, Business Continuity and Businesses' Choices of Power Outage Mitigation Measures  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Problem statement: Power outage has been mentioned as one of the most experienced and perceived risks by various types of businesses and organizations. Thus, reducing the impacts of power outage has become a key agenda in business continuity planning. Back-up or stand-by generators are among the most well known measures taken by power consumers to tackle the power outage problem. Approach: A survey was conducted to understand various aspects of power outage a...

Ali Asgary; Yeganeh Mousavi-Jahromi

2011-01-01

200

Contributing understanding of mitigation options for phosphorus and sediment to a review of the efficacy of contemporary agricultural stewardship measures  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Experiences from the Mitigation Options for Phosphorus and Sediment (MOPS) projects, which aim to determine the effectiveness of measures to reduce pollutant loading from agricultural land to surface waters, have been used to contribute to the findings of a recent paper (Kay et al., 2009, Agricultural Systems, 99, 67-75), which reviewed the efficacy of contemporary agricultural stewardship measures for ameliorating the water pollution problems of key concern to the UK water industry. MOPS1 is...

2010-01-01

 
 
 
 
201

Calibration and Multipath Mitigation for Increased Accuracy of Time-of-Flight Camera Measurements in Robotic Applications  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This dissertation entitled "Calibration and Multipath Mitigation for Increased Ac- curacy of Time-of-Flight Camera Measurements in Robotic Applications" discusses the systematic measurement errors of a Time-of-Flight (ToF) camera and introduces two approaches to compensate for these errors. ToF cameras are active, imaging sensors, which provide depth images and monochromatic images with a frame rate up to 50 Hz. These devices allow not only for two-dimensional computer vision algorithms but a...

Fuchs, Stefan

2012-01-01

202

Volcanic hazard in Mexico: a comprehensive on-line database for risk mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

Researchers are currently working on several key aspects of the Mexican volcanoes, such as remote sensing, field data of old and recent volcaniclastic deposits, structural framework, monitoring (rainfall data and visual observation of lahars), and laboratory experiment (analogue models and numerical simulations - fall3D, titan2D). Each investigation is focused on specific processes, but it is fundamental to visualize the global status of the volcano in order to understand its behavior and to mitigate future hazards. The Mexican Volcanoes @nline represents a novel initiative aimed to collect, on a systematic basis, the complete set of data obtained so far on the volcanoes, and to continuously update the database with new data. All the information is compiled from published works and updated frequently. Maps, such as the geological map of the Mexican volcanos and the associated hazard zonation, as well as point data, such as stratigraphic sections, sedimentology and diagrams of rainfall intensities, are presented in Google Earth format in order to be easily accessed by the scientific community and the general public. An important section of this online database is the presentation of numerical simulations results for ash dispersion associated with the principal Mexican active volcanoes. Daily prediction of ash flow dispersion (based on real-time data from CENAPRED and the Mexican Meteorological Service), as well as large-scale high-resolution subduction simulations performed on HORUS (the Computational Geodynamics Laboratory's supercomputer) represent a central part of the Mexican Volcanos @nline database. The Mexican Volcanoes @nline database is maintained by the Computational Geodynamics Laboratory and it is based entirely on Open Source software. The website can be visited at: http://www.geociencias.unam.mx/mexican_volcanoes.

Manea, Marina; Constantin Manea, Vlad; Capra, Lucia; Bonasia, Rosanna

2013-04-01

203

Quantitative Measures of Mineral Supply Risk  

Science.gov (United States)

Almost all metals and many non-metallic minerals are traded internationally. An advantage of global mineral markets is that minerals can be obtained from the globally lowest-cost source. For example, one rare-earth element (REE) mine in China, Bayan Obo, is able to supply most of world demand for rare earth elements at a cost significantly less than its main competitors. Concentration of global supplies at a single mine raises significant political risks, illustrated by China’s recent decision to prohibit the export of some REEs and severely limit the export of others. The expected loss of REE supplies will have a significant impact on the cost and production of important national defense technologies and on alternative energy programs. Hybrid vehicles and wind-turbine generators, for example, require REEs for magnets and batteries. Compact fluorescent light bulbs use REE-based phosphors. These recent events raise the general issue of how to measure the degree of supply risk for internationally sourced minerals. Two factors, concentration of supply and political risk, must first be addressed. Concentration of supply can be measured with standard economic tools for measuring industry concentration, using countries rather than firms as the unit of analysis. There are many measures of political risk available. That of the OECD is a measure of a country’s commitment to rule-of-law and enforcement of contracts, as well as political stability. Combining these measures provides a comparative view of mineral supply risk across commodities and identifies several minerals other than REEs that could suddenly become less available. Combined with an assessment of the impact of a reduction in supply, decision makers can use these measures to prioritize risk reduction efforts.

Long, K. R.

2009-12-01

204

Downgrading Complexity in the Exxon Valdez Crisis: Using Information as a Risk Mitigation Tool in Complex Adaptive Systems  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available

 

In a high-stakes crisis environment, trial and error can be too costly an approach. The Exxon Valdez oil spill provides an example of how complex adaptive systems can have simple, preventable problems and complex, unpredictable problems can come together with disastrous consequences. Not every possible contingency can be accounted for. However, research and experience can be applied to mitigate these types of risks by using information to reduce or "downgrade" the complexity of the contributing situations. The Cynefin contexts of complexity can be used to assess problems when they arise. Downgrading the level of complexity for a given problem can turn formerly complex or complicated situations into simple ones that require less knowledge and resources to resolve and can reduce the risk of failure. The possibility and consequences of failure may remain, but downgraded complexity can reduce the likelihood of this failure and make problems more manageable when they do occur.

Eric Snow

2010-11-01

205

Modelling of agricultural diffuse pollution and mitigation measures effectiveness in Wallonia (Belgium)  

Science.gov (United States)

Implementation of European directives in the environmental field and, specially, in the water management field, generates a request from policy-makers for news tools able to evaluate impact of management measures aiming at reducing pressures on ecosystems. In Wallonia (Southern Region of Belgium), the Nitrate Directive (EEC/676/91) was transposed into the "Walloon action plan for nitrogen sustainable management in agriculture" (PGDA1) in 2002. In 2007, a second plan was launched to reinforce some topics (PGDA2). Furthermore, the goal of "good quality" of surface waters and groundwater imposed by the Water Framework Directive poses new challenges in water management. In this context, a "soil and vadose" hydrological model is used in order to evaluate diffuse pollutions and efficiency of mitigation measures. This model, called EPICgrid, has been developed at catchment scale with an original modular concept on the basis of the field scale "water-soil-plant" EPIC model (Williams J.R., Jones C.A., Dyke P.T. (1984). A modelling approach to determining the relationship between erosion and soil productivity. Transactions of the ASAE. 27, 129-144). The model estimates, for each HRU identified into a 1km2 grid, water and nutrients flows into the plant-soil-vadose zone system (Sohier C., Degré A., Dautrebande S. (2009). From root zone modelling to regional forecasting of nitrate concentration in recharge flows - The case of the Walloon Region (Belgium). Journal of Hydrology, Volume 369, Issues 3-4, 15 May 2009, Pages 350-359). The model is used to make prospective simulations in order to evaluate the impact of measures currently performed to reduce the effect of diffuse pollution on water surface quality and groundwater quality, at regional scale. Response of the soil-vadose zone to agricultural practices modification is analyzed for the deadlines of the Water Framework Directive: 2015, 2021 and 2027, taking into account two climatic scenarios. Simulations results showed that actual measures are not sufficient in some areas and that new actions are necessary. The EPICgrid model was also used to evaluate effectiveness of further measures that could be implemented in order to reduce agricultural diffuse pollution. The increasing of catch crops in vulnerable zones has shown a limited impact in the Walloon context. The modifications of agricultural practices such as crop rotations or mineral fertilizing amounts have shown a more significant impact on water quality. Furthermore, the farmers' practices are evaluated each year by a measuring campaign of the soil nitrogen residue after harvest. These data allow us to improve the representativeness of the EPICgrid model in areas in which agricultural practices largely differs from regional statistics.

Sohier, C.; Deraedt, D.; Degré, A.

2012-04-01

206

Residents in a high radon potential geographic area: Their risk perception and attitude toward testing and mitigation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boone County, Indiana was identified by the EPA as one of the high radon potential geographic areas. Health education campaigns are needed to prevent resident's unnecessary radon exposure. In order to design suitable programs, a questionnaire mail survey was conducted to measure socio-demographic characteristics of County resident's knowledge about radon, attitude toward radon testing and mitigation, support of education campaigns, and the best media to deliver radon education campaigns. A stratified random sampling method was applied for a total of 400 samples. The number of samples from each township/city was a proportion of their taxable parcels. The survey return rate was 39.8%. The data were analyzed by Epi Info and SPSS. The statistical significant level was set at ? = 0.05. The results showed that resident's knowledge about radon was at a relatively superficial level. There was no association identified between the knowledge of radon and gender, age, family income, or education, except that females more frequently believed in false effects caused by radon. A significant correlation between radon knowledge and home radon tests was observed. Also found in this study was that respondents with better knowledge about diseases caused by radon had more confidence in radon mitigation actions. Newspaper was chosen by respondents as the most favorite media to deliver radon health education campaigns. Health education campaigns for the residents of Boone County might be conducted by local governments and/or other organizations

1996-01-01

207

Environmental benefits and risks of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI): risk mitigation or trade-off?  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

The use of nanoscaled particles in environmental remediation is gaining increasing amounts of attention in recent years, including the use of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI) for soil and groundwater remediation. The main advantages of its use include high degrees of reactivity towards a wide range of contaminants, enhanced mobility of the often coated particles, and its cost-effective in situ applications. Numerous studies have shown that compared to larger sized iron particles nZVI may have some superior properties, due to high surface areas and small sizes associated with nanoscale dimensions. While the use and further development of nZVI is understandably heralded as an environmentally-beneficial technology, the potentials risks of introducing these nanoparticles into the environment also needs to be considered. To date most research has focused on the potential benefits of nZVI and very little research has investigated its potential health and environmental risks. Nonetheless, some recent studies have documented adverse effects from its exposure including the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS), oxidative stress, bactericidal effects, DNA damage, and inflammatory responses. Moreover, field site injections often involve the use of large quantities of nZVI (10-50 g/L) which may be directly injected into groundwater flow. Combined with the pursuit of designing more mobile and reactive particles, this may potentially lead to risks related to environmental exposures of substantial concentrations. In this study, we provide a brief synopsis of the expected environmental benefits and potential risks of nZVI, particularly focusing on its environmental fate and behavior and potential role as contaminant carrier. These are some areas of primary concern for risk assessors. Furthermore, we estimate and compare the span between probable environmental concentrations from its use in the field and concentrations which have been shown to cause adverse effects in laboratory settings. This is in light of the challenges that quantitative risk assessments face for nZVI and other nanoparticles, in part due to extensive and fundamental uncertainties. These data may provide a starting point to more thoroughly investigate the potential risks of nZVI and ultimately help scientists, engineers, and decision makers make better informed decisions regarding the use of nZVI for environmental remediation.

Grieger, Khara Deanne; Fjordbøge, Annika Sidelmann

2009-01-01

208

Mitigating Information security risks during the Transition to Integrated Operations:Models & Data  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This research studies the change of information security risks during the transition to Integrated Operations (an operation extensively utilize advanced information communication technology to connect offshore facilities and onshore control centers and even vendors.) in Norsk Hydro, a Norwegian oil and gas company. The specific case for this study is a pilot platform in transition to Integrated Operations, Brage: twenty traditional work processes are to be replaced by new work processes. The ...

Qian, Ying

2010-01-01

209

Modelling the impacts of climate change on muddy flooding and the effectiveness of mitigation measures in Flanders, Belgium  

Science.gov (United States)

The 'off-site' impacts of soil erosion have become a major source of concern in Europe and elsewhere during recent decades. This is due, in part, to the environmental damage and economic costs associated with 'muddy flooding.' Muddy floods occur when large volumes of runoff are generated on agricultural land, triggering the detachment and transport of sediment. This may then be deposited in neighbouring settlements. The Belgian loess belt is particularly vulnerable to muddy floods since loess-derived soils are susceptible to crusting, which decreases their infiltration rates and promotes high levels of runoff and erosion. Severe economic damages in many Flemish municipalities led to government provision of funding for voluntary mitigation measures from 2001. In the Melsterbeek catchment, where several villages have been particularly affected by severe muddy floods, mitigation measures have been implemented and their effectiveness subsequently monitored. Runoff, erosion and the occurrence of muddy floods have all considerably decreased. The scheme was cost-effective within three years. The success of these mitigation measures may diminish over the coming decades, however, as climate change poses new threats ranging from direct changes in rainfall intensity to the indirect effects of climate-driven shifts in land use. Such changes could potentially generate increased runoff over agricultural land and lead to a resurgence of muddy flooding in vulnerable areas, with severe repercussions for the effectiveness of mitigation measures. In this study, we model the impacts of climate change on muddy flooding for a hillslope in the Melsterbeek catchment where mitigation measures have been implemented, enabling us to quantify the threat which climate change poses to their effectiveness. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) was employed. Model data for present-day conditions were perturbed with future climate change parameters derived from statistical downscaling methods, and for land use change projections developed using a scenarios-based framework. Results reveal that existing mitigation measures may become compromised under a selection of future scenarios of climate and land use. Future efforts at conservation may need to become more flexible to remain effective in the changing environment of the coming decades.

Mullan, Donal; Vandaele, Karel; Boardman, John; Favis-Mortlock, Dave

2014-05-01

210

Final Report for the ZERT Project: Basic Science of Retention Issues, Risk Assessment & Measurement, Monitoring and Verification for Geologic Sequestration  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

ZERT has made major contributions to five main areas of sequestration science: improvement of computational tools; measurement and monitoring techniques to verify storage and track migration of CO{sub 2}; development of a comprehensive performance and risk assessment framework; fundamental geophysical, geochemical and hydrological investigations of CO{sub 2} storage; and investigate innovative, bio-based mitigation strategies.

Spangler, Lee; Cunningham, Alfred; Lageson, David; Melick, Jesse; Gardner, Mike; Dobeck, Laura; Repasky, Kevin; Shaw, Joseph; Bajura, Richard; McGrail, B Peter; Oldenburg, Curtis M; Wagoner, Jeff; Pawar, Rajesh

2011-03-31

211

Volcano Hazard Tracking and Disaster Risk Mitigation: A Detailed Gap Analysis from Data-Collection to User Implementation  

Science.gov (United States)

Volcano Hazard Tracking and Disaster Risk Mitigation: A Detailed Gap Analysis from Data-Collection to User Implementation Dohy Faied, Aurora Sanchez (on behalf of SSP08 VAPOR Project Team) Dohy.Faied@masters.isunet.edu While numerous global initiatives exist to address the potential hazards posed by volcanic eruption events and assess impacts from a civil security viewpoint, there does not yet exist a single, unified, international system of early warning and hazard tracking for eruptions. Numerous gaps exist in the risk reduction cycle, from data collection, to data processing, and finally dissemination of salient information to relevant parties. As part of the 2008 International Space University's Space Studies Program, a detailed gap analysis of the state of volcano disaster risk reduction was undertaken, and this paper presents the principal results. This gap analysis considered current sensor technologies, data processing algorithms, and utilization of data products by various international organizations. Recommendations for strategies to minimize or eliminate certain gaps are also provided. In the effort to address the gaps, a framework evolved at system level. This framework, known as VIDA, is a tool to develop user requirements for civil security in hazardous contexts, and a candidate system concept for a detailed design phase. VIDA also offers substantial educational potential: the framework includes a centralized clearinghouse for volcanology data which could support education at a variety of levels. Basic geophysical data, satellite maps, and raw sensor data are combined and accessible in a way that allows the relationships between these data types to be explored and used in a training environment. Such a resource naturally lends itself to research efforts in the subject but also research in operational tools, system architecture, and human/machine interaction in civil protection or emergency scenarios.

Faied, D.; Sanchez, A.

2009-04-01

212

FDA's risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS): effective and efficient safety tools or process poltergeist?  

Science.gov (United States)

Implementation of REMS began in March 2008 and by mid-2011 close to 200 New Molecular Entities (NMEs) and New Drug Applications (NDAs) (i.e., NMEs plus new doses and formulations of drugs) approved by FDA were required to have a REMS. As the REMS program expands, there has been an increasing chorus of stakeholders who have expressed a range of concerns and criticisms about the program's impact on the health care system. Yet, these impacts still remain underexplored by academic study. The authors conducted a series of qualitative interviews with individuals representing the experiences and opinions of five stakeholder groups involved in various aspects of REMS programs. The groups were comprised of representatives of biopharmaceutical companies, payers, health care providers (HCPs), pharmacists, and patient advocacy organizations. Questions were organized around the following themes: REMS implementation and administration; REMS components (i.e., medication guides, communication plans, and elements to assure safe use); effects on patient access and delivery of care; program outcomes; and, issues specific to each stakeholder group. What was most surprising was not that respondent groups with such divergent perspectives and diverse roles within the REMS program disagreed on certain points, but rather that they agreed on so many points. There was general agreement that the program is burdensome and not an improvement over previous risk management programs. Respondents also concurred almost unanimously that the patient information is weighted much too heavily on the risk end of the risk/benefit scale. Similarly, there was general concern from all the responder groups about uncompensated time and resources expended by HCPs and pharmacists. While some positive aspects were noted, these tended to be viewed as opportunities for improvement rather than actual benefits of the REMS program as currently implemented. As PDUFA V draws ever nearer, it's clear that FDA is attempting to address the program's shortcomings but it is clear that more needs to be done. PMID:24505829

Wilson, Andrew; Milne, Christopher-Paul

2011-01-01

213

Risk Mitigation in the Development of a Roebel Cable Based 1 MVA HTS Transformer  

Science.gov (United States)

Progress is reported on the development of a 3-phase 1 MVA 11 kV/415 V HTS transformer using Roebel cable for the secondary windings. We describe efforts to address risks associated with short circuits, insulation, and heat transfer. We present modelling results for the response of the windings to a short circuit. Sample strands have been tested to demonstrate that cables immersed in liquid nitrogen can survive short circuits. The primary windings use insulated conductor to withstand computed impulse voltages. Breakdown and partial discharge testing confirms that the production insulation scheme is adequate for our design. Heat transfer results are presented for a sample Roebel cable winding

Glasson, Neil; Staines, Mike; Badcock, Rod; Ward, Logan; Allpress, Nathan; Thakur, Kailash; Pannu, Mohinder

214

Flood-risk assessment and hazard mitigation mesures : case studies and lessons learnt in Italy  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The effect of climate change and the growing world population are together increaing both the chance of flooding and the consequences. In Italy , in the wake of the floods that plagued the northen part of the country in the fifties and sixties ,a process was set in motion aimed at developing a new integrated approach to water management, at the catchment level,suitable for coping with water related disasters.In this context,three case-studies of flood risk management and hazard assessment ...

Wrachien, Daniele

2008-01-01

215

Mitigating the health risks of dining out: the need for standardized portion sizes in restaurants.  

Science.gov (United States)

Because restaurants routinely serve food with more calories than people need, dining out represents a risk factor for overweight, obesity, and other diet-related chronic diseases. Most people lack the capacity to judge the caloric content of food and there is limited evidence that people make use of calorie-labeling information when it is available. Standardized portion sizes would not preclude people from eating as much as they want, but would make the amount they are getting fully transparent. We describe the potential benefits and means of implementing a system of standardized portion sizes that might facilitate a healthier diet among the US population. PMID:24524513

Cohen, Deborah A; Story, Mary

2014-04-01

216

Damage-reducing measures to manage flood risks in a changing climate  

Science.gov (United States)

Damage due to floods has increased during the last few decades, and further increases are expected in several regions due to climate change and a growing vulnerability. To address the projected increase in flood risk, a combination of structural and non-structural flood risk mitigation measures is considered as a promising adaptation strategy. Such a combination takes into account that flood defence systems may fail, and prepare for unexpected crisis situations via land-use planning, building construction, evacuation and disaster response. Non-structural flood risk mitigation measures like shielding with water shutters or sand bags, building fortification or safeguarding of hazardous substances are often voluntary: they demand self-dependent action by the population at risk (Bubeck et al. 2012; 2013). It is believed that these measures are especially effective in areas with frequent flood events and low flood water levels, but some types of measures showed a significant damage-reducing effect also during extreme flood events, such as the Elbe River flood in August 2002 in Germany (Kreibich et al. 2005; 2011). Despite the growing importance of damage-reducing measures, information is still scarce about factors that motivate people to undertake such measures, the state of implementation of various non-structural measures in different countries and their damage reducing effects. Thus, we collected information and undertook an international review about this topic in the framework of the Dutch KfC project "Climate proof flood risk management". The contribution will present an overview about the available information on damage-reducing measures and draw conclusions for practical flood risk management in a changing climate. References: Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Suu, L. T. T., Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2012): Do flood risk perceptions provide useful insights for flood risk management? Findings from central Vietnam. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 5, 4, 295-302 Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Kreibich, H., Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2013) Detailed insights into the influence of flood-coping appraisals on mitigation behaviour. Global Environmental Change. DOI:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.05.009. Kreibich, H., Thieken, A. H., Petrow, T., Müller, M., Merz, B. (2005): Flood loss reduction of private households due to building precautionary measures - Lessons Learned from the Elbe flood in August 2002. NHESS, 5, 1, 117-126. Kreibich, H., Christenberger, S., Schwarze, R. (2011) Economic motivation of households to undertake private precautionary measures against floods. NHESS, 11, 2, 309-321.

Kreibich, Heidi; Bubeck, Philip; Van Vliet, Mathijs; De Moel, Hans

2014-05-01

217

Mitigation Measures Following a Loss-of-Residual-Heat-Removal Event During Shutdown  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The transient following a loss-of-residual-heat-removal event during shutdown was analyzed to determine the containment closure time (CCT) to prevent uncontrolled release of fission products and the gravity-injection path and rate (GIPR) for effective core cooling using the RELAP5/MOD3.2 code. The plant conditions of Yonggwang Units 3 and 4, a pressurized water reactor (PWR) of 2815-MW(thermal) power in Korea, were reviewed, and possible event sequences were identified. From the CCT analysis for the five cases of typical plant configurations, it was estimated for the earliest CCT to be 40 min after the event in a case with a large cold-leg opening and emptied steam generators (SGs). However, the case with water-filled SGs significantly delayed the CCT through the heat removal to the secondary side. From the GIPR analysis for the six possible gravity-injection paths from the refueling water storage tank (RWST), the case with the injection point and opening on the other leg side was estimated to be the most suitable path to avoid core boiling. In addition, from the sensitivity study, it was evaluated for the plant to be capable of providing the core cooling for the long-term transient if nominal RWST water is available. As a result, these analysis methods and results will provide useful information in understanding the plant behavior and preparing the mitigation measures after the event, especially for Combustion Engineering-type PWR plants. However, to directly apply the analysis results to the emergency procedure for such an event, additional case studies are needed for a wide range of operating conditions such as reactor coolant inventory, RWST water temperature, and core decay heat rate

2000-10-01

218

The reordering urban community participation. A strategy for the prevention and mitigation of risk by geological phenomena: Case of implementation in Medellin, Colombia  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In this article, it is showed the fulfilled methodology by the municipality of Medellin-Colombia and its results, at the Picacho sector, for the risk prevention and mitigation of rock fall It is formulated and developed a project for urban rearrangement, in which the community participation is the transverse component at the planning- management, risk prevention- mitigation, legalization of land's possession, housing improvement- relocation, and urban infrastructure. The most important results were a) the improvement of quality's life for residents, benefiting directly about 2,500 people and indirectly about 24,000, with one investment near 3.6 dollar millions; b) construction of social web and membership sense; c) better governance and better state-community relation; and d) risk reduction of rock fall As the main conclusion it is expounded that the community participation at all stages of the project and the concept that the risk is non resolved problem of the development are two determining elements so that urban rearrangement may be, in many cases, the better option for the risk prevention and mitigation of geological phenomena in urban areas of unmannerly development, rather than one massive relocation of the population

2007-01-01

219

The nitrogen fate beyond the current nutrient mitigation measures: sustainability of an integrated agriculture  

Science.gov (United States)

Located in the North-Western Europe the terrestrial continuum that includes the Seine, Somme, and Scheldt River basins offers an interesting example of a transborder territory (France, Belgium, and Netherlands) with high-intensity anthropogenic pressures. It well-illustrates the rapid development of modern agriculture in industrialised countries and the resulting severe alteration of water resources and jeopardising the capacity of rural territories to produce drinking water. The corresponding nutrient loads delivered then into the Southern Bight of the North Sea, strongly affect the ecological functioning of the coastal zone. An integrated ‘river-ocean’ assessment, coupling two deterministic models - the SENEQUE RIVESTRAHLER model simulating nutrient dynamic in the drainage network and the MIRO model describing the ecological functioning coastal ecosystem - points out the relevance of current policy based measures (improvement of waste water treatment) to mitigate phosphorous emissions, while the nitrogen pollution related to agriculture will remain critical despite the implementation of classical management measure (good agricultural practices). Therefore and irrespectively of the current political agenda, a more radical alternative is established, consisting of a generalised shift to an integrated agriculture of all agricultural areas in the three basins, excluding the use of synthetically compounded fertilisers and the importation of livestock feed. Such scenario aims at evaluating whether agriculture, by essence, can conciliate (i) the demand for food and feed by local populations, (ii) a good ecological functioning of aquatic ecosystems and (iii) a balanced nutrient status for the adjacent coastal area. This scenario involves an increased livestock density in the Seine and Somme and a decrease in livestock in the Scheldt basin. It leads to a significant reduction of agricultural production that finally brings the three basins closer to autotrophy/heterotrophy equilibrium, while a persisting requirement of long-distance importation of meat and milk clearly emphasises the unsustainability of the increasing share of animal proteins in the modern human diet. In the more optimistic hypothesis, nitrate concentrations in most of the drainage network would drop below the threshold of 2.25 mgN/l (10 mgNO3/L) which is often considered a threshold for a good ecological status. The excess of nitrogen over silica (with respect to the requirements of marine diatoms) delivered into the coastal zones would be decreased by a factor from 2 to 5, thus strongly reducing, but not entirely eliminating the potential for marine eutrophication. Despite a lack a short-term realism, this alternative could appears - in the line of the ‘adapting mosaic’ defined by the Millenium Ecosystem Assessement - as an end-point situation to be compared when building future nutrient reduction policies and incentive agricultural measures.

Thieu, V.; Billen, G. F.; Garnier, J.; Lancelot, C.; Gypens, N.

2010-12-01

220

Concave risk measures in international capital regulation  

CERN Document Server

We show that some specific market risk measures implied by current international capital regulation (the Basel Accords and the Capital Adequacy Directive of the European Union) violate the obvious requirement of convexity in some regions in the space of portfolio weights.

Kondor, I; Ujvarosi, T; Kondor, Imre; Szepessy, Andras; Ujvarosi, Tunde

2003-01-01

 
 
 
 
221

Recommendations for practical measures to mitigate the impact of aquaculture on the environment in three areas of the Philippines  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available An assessment of the severity and extent of aquaculture impact and the estimation of sustainable carrying capacity were undertaken in three areas of the Philippines - Bolinao (marine site, Dagupan, (brackishwater and Taal Lake (freshwater. This paper describes the potential mitigating measures that could be taken to reduce nutrient release from aquaculture, increase nutrient uptake using extractive species, and possible early warning systems for critical states of the tide when there is reduced flushing.

Tarzan Legovi?

2008-12-01

222

Improving cost-effectiveness and mitigating risks of renewable energy requirements  

Science.gov (United States)

Policy makers at the federal and state levels of government are debating actions to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on oil as an energy source. Several concerns drive this debate: sharp rises in energy prices, increasing unease about the risks of climate change, energy security, and interest in expanding the domestic renewable energy industry. Renewable energy requirements are frequently proposed to address these concerns, and are currently in place, in various forms, at the federal and state levels of government. These policies specify that a certain portion of the energy supply come from renewable energy sources. This dissertation focuses on a specific proposal, known as 25 X 25, which requires 25% of electricity and motor vehicle transportation fuels supplied to U.S. consumers to come from renewable energy sources, such as wind power and ethanol, by 2025. This dissertation builds on prior energy policy analysis, and more specifically analyses of renewable energy requirements, by assessing the social welfare implications of a 25 x 25 policy and applying new methods of uncertainty analysis to multiple policy options decision makers can use to implement the policy. These methods identify policy options that can improve the cost-effectiveness and reduce the risks of renewable energy requirements. While the dissertation focuses on a specific policy, the research methods and findings are applicable to other renewable energy requirement policies. In the dissertation, I analyze six strategies for implementing a 25 x 25 policy across several hundred scenarios that represent plausible futures for uncertainties in energy markets, such as renewable energy costs, energy demand, and fossil fuel prices. The strategies vary in the availability of resources that qualify towards the policy requirement and the use of a "safety valve" that allows refiners and utilities to pay a constant fee after renewable energy costs reach a predetermined threshold. I test each strategy across the set of scenarios and conclude that an "all-combined" strategy---one that allows greater corn ethanol production and energy efficiency to qualify towards the requirement and includes a safety valve---is the most robust strategy to address future uncertainties in energy markets.

Griffin, James P.

223

Climate change effects on mitigation measures: The case of extreme wind events and Philippines’ biofuel plan  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Biofuel production has increased dramatically over the past decade, among other to mitigate climate change. However, climate change vulnerability may currently not be sufficiently accounted for in national biofuel strategies, hence neglecting a possible link between mitigation and adaptation to climate change. To the best of our knowledge this potential link has received very little attention in the literature. One example is the Philippines, which is currently implementing an ambitious program of biofuel production. Its aim is to reduce dependency on imported fuel, increase rural employment and incomes, and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. The Philippines is frequently battered by tropical typhoons and from 1975 to 2002 the annual average damage to agriculture was 3.047 billion pesos. We calculate wind damage on biofuel feedstock production, and assess the effect that a future potential increase in tropical cyclone intensity would have on energy security, rural development and climate change mitigation in the Philippines. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to obtain the future expected development of typhoon impacts. Based on the Philippines legislated target of 10% biodiesel blend in gasoline by 2011, simulation of the affected area for each feedstock, and expected biofuel feedstock damage is computed for the Philippine's 80 provinces in 2050, for two different typhoon climate change scenarios. Additional indirect economic effects are assessed in a tentative way. The results suggest a modest decrease in biofuel feedstock productivity at the national level, but with strong local differences that are shown to affect the Philippine's policy goals. In a broader perspective the paper accentuates a so far little described link between climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation. This link may merit further attention by policy makers and development planners in order to ensure that policies are economically sound not only in the short but also medium term.

2011-12-01

224

Performance evaluating of the AP1000 passive safety systems for mitigation of small break loss of coolant accident using risk assessment tool-II software  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The SBLOCA CDF has been estimated to be 1.934E-8/year, using RAT II. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The simplicity and passive safety systems result in decrease in the probability of CCF. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer However, the importance analysis ranks the CCF as the greatest contributor in CDF. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Automatic and manual actuation failure probabilities have been founded to have low contribution in the SBLOCA CDF. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The analysis assesses the performance of passive safety systems and reveals the deficiencies. - Abstract: The successful performance of defense barriers in the operating nuclear power plants is vital to avoid any release of highly radioactive fission products. Passive safety systems, independent of the electrical power, are implemented in modern NPPs to improve their reliability on demand. In this study, the SB-LOCA CDF is evaluated for the AP1000 to assess the performance of passive safety systems. The core damage states are examined to identify the most considerable risk contributors. Besides, importance measures rank the failures. Risk assessment tool-II has been designed and developed, in the safety research center of Shiraz University, to develop the PSA level 1 models. Using redundant passive and diverse reliable safety systems result in the low CDF of SB-LOCA (i.e. 1.934E-08). Considering the dominant sequences indicates that relying on passive automatic actuation mitigating processes, independent of operator actuations and electrical motive power leads to the considerable decrease in the probability of common cause failures and the CDF. However, importance analysis reveals the high contribution of CCF{sub B}Es in the SB-LOCA CDF. The results identify the weak points of operation and the most important risk contributors, in order to improve the inadequacies in design, test and maintenance and required human actions.

Kamyab, Shahabeddin [School of Engineering, Shiraz University, 71348-51154 Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Nematollahi, Mohammadreza, E-mail: nema@shirazu.ac.ir [School of Engineering, Shiraz University, 71348-51154 Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Safety Research Center of Shiraz University, 71348-51154 Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2012-12-15

225

Risk constraint measures developed for the outcome-based strategy for tank waste management  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This report is one of a series of supporting documents for the outcome-based characterization strategy developed by PNNL. This report presents a set of proposed risk measures with risk constraint (acceptance) levels for use in the Value of Information process used in the NCS. The characterization strategy has developed a risk-based Value of Information (VOI) approach for comparing the cost-effectiveness of characterizing versus mitigating particular waste tanks or tank clusters. The preference between characterizing or mitigating in order to prevent an accident depends on the cost of those activities relative to the cost of the consequences of the accident. The consequences are defined as adverse impacts measured across a broad set of risk categories such as worker dose, public cancers, ecological harm, and sociocultural impacts. Within each risk measure, various {open_quotes}constraint levels{close_quotes} have been identified that reflect regulatory standards or conventionally negotiated thresholds of harm to Hanford resources and values. The cost of consequences includes the {open_quotes}costs{close_quote} of exceeding those constraint levels as well as a strictly linear costing per unit of impact within each of the risk measures. In actual application, VOI based-decision making is an iterative process, with a preliminary low-precision screen of potential technical options against the major risk constraints, followed by VOI analysis to determine the cost-effectiveness of gathering additional information and to select a preferred technical option, and finally a posterior screen to determine whether the preferred option meets all relevant risk constraints and acceptability criteria.

Harper, B.L.; Gajewski, S.J.; Glantz, C.L. [and others

1996-09-01

226

A process-based model for the definition of hydrological alert systems in landslide risk mitigation  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The definition of hydrological alert systems for rainfall-induced landslides is strongly related to a deep knowledge of the geological and geomorphological features of the territory. Climatic conditions, spatial and temporal evolution of the phenomena and characterization of landslide triggering, together with propagation mechanisms, are the key elements to be considered. Critical steps for the development of the systems consist of the identification of the hydrological variable related to landslide triggering and of the minimum rainfall threshold for landslide occurrence.

In this paper we report the results from a process-based model to define a hydrological alert system for the Val di Maso Landslide, located in the northeastern Italian Alps and included in the Vicenza Province (Veneto region, NE Italy. The instability occurred in November 2010, due to an exceptional rainfall event that hit the Vicenza Province and the entire NE Italy. Up to 500 mm in 3-day cumulated rainfall generated large flood conditions and triggered hundreds of landslides. During the flood, the Soil Protection Division of the Vicenza Province received more than 500 warnings of instability phenomena. The complexity of the event and the high level of risk to infrastructure and private buildings are the main reasons for deepening the specific phenomenon occurred at Val di Maso.

Empirical and physically-based models have been used to identify the minimum rainfall threshold for the occurrence of instability phenomena in the crown area of Val di Maso landslide, where a retrogressive evolution by multiple rotational slides is expected. Empirical models helped in the identification and in the evaluation of recurrence of critical rainfall events, while physically-based modelling was essential to verify the effects on the slope stability of determined rainfall depths. Empirical relationships between rainfall and landslide consist of the calculation of rainfall Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF curves, which allow one to determine rainfall depth (or intensity as a function of duration for given return periods or probabilities of exceedance (frequencies. Physically-based modelling was performed through coupled seepage and slope stability analyses.

Combining results from empirical and physically-based modelling, the minimum alert threshold for a reactivation of the phenomenon was found in rainfall cumulated up to 60 days with a return period of 2 yr. These results were used to set up a hydrological alert system based on the calibration of DDF curves which can be used as a sort of abacus to plot in real time rainfall depths and to set increasing levels of alert on the basis of the degree of exceptionality of rainfall.

The alert system for Val di Maso was successfully tested by the rainfall events that produced displacements which have been recorded by extensometers placed in the crown area after the November 2010 landslide. However, further tests are recommendable to improve the process-based model that led to the implementation of the alert system. To this end, a monitoring system is currently being realized. In the near future, monitoring data will help in testing and improving landslide evolution and alert models.

The proposed hydrological alert system proves to be effective mainly because it can be applied to different scales of investigation and geological and geomorphological contexts. In fact, it might also be applicable to territorial scale analyses, as showed by the brief example provided in this paper on how the alert system could be used for landslide early warning in the area surrounding Val di Maso. Furthermore, it is easy to set up. The needed components are a rain gauge station, a software that compares rainfall data to rainfall events with different return periods and degree of alert, and a transmission system of the warning levels to authorities.

M. Floris

2012-11-01

227

Risk measures in living probabilistic safety assessment  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The main objectives of the study are: to define risk measures and suggested uses of them in various living PSA applications for the operational safety management and to describe specific model features required for living PSA applications. The report is based on three case studies performed within the Nordic research project Safety Evaluation by Use of Living PSA and Safety Indicators. (48 refs., 11 figs., 17 tabs.)

1993-01-01

228

Stress Testing Engineering: the real risk measurement?  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Stress testing is used to determine the stability or the resilience of a given financial institution by deliberately submitting. In this paper, we focus on what may lead a bank to fail and how its resilience can be measured. Two families of triggers are analysed: the first stands in the stands in the impact of external (and / or extreme) events, the second one stands on the impacts of the choice of inadequate models for predictions or risks measurement; more precisely on models becoming inade...

Guegan, Dominique; Hassani, Bertrand

2014-01-01

229

Soil physical conditions as livestock treading effect in tropical Agroecosystem of dryland and strategies to mitigate desertification risk  

Science.gov (United States)

Soil degradation in natural ecosystem of arid and semi-arid zones of Venezuela due to livestock treading (goats) it is an important problem that affect their environment functions; increase soil erodibility, bulk density, water losses and reduce porosity, water infiltration rate and soil structural stability. The presence of biological crust (BSC) in this type of soil it is very common. The objective of this study was to evaluate the soil surface physical quality through the use of selected indicators, mainly some of that related to structural stability, infiltrability and the prediction of soil erosion risk in two zones of Lara state: 1) Quíbor (QUI) and 2) Humocaro Bajo (HB). The study was conducted on two selected plots (30 m x 20 m) in each zone, with natural vegetation and BSC cover, with areas affected by different degree of compaction due to treading in the paths where the goats are moving. Five sites per plot (50 cm x 50 cm) under vegetation cover and five sites over the path with bare soil were sampled (0-7,5 and 7,5-15 cm depth). The results showed that soil macroaggregate stability (equivalent diameter of aggregates >0,25 mm) was significantly higher (paggregate stability, determined in laboratory under simulated rain and expressed as hydraulic conductivity of soil surface sealing (Kse), decreased with decreasing soil vegetation cover and the presence of BSC. However, Ksei (i: inicial) and Ksef (f: final) were significantly greater in soil with more than 75 % of BSC in comparison to bare soils. The sealing index it is used to for to estimate changes in soil water losses. As the sealing index increases, the susceptibility of the soil to undergo surface sealing or slaking decrease. These results suggested that soil physical properties are potential indicators of soil quality with regard to soil erodibility and showed that soils under vegetation cover had higher quality level than bare soils. Some predictive regression equation had a high R2 value and was a useful tool for to evaluate the risk of extreme climatic changes and to mitigate their detrimental effects. We conclude that the global climatic change (CCG) will have a negative effect on these agroecosystems functions, mainly in soil and water conservation, carbon sequestration, and productivity. Natural recovery of soil physical properties from treading damage of pastoral soils will be possible in the future with the implementation of soil management strategies, mainly through re-vegetation and recuperation of the BSC. Key word: Soil structure; aggregate stability; soil sealing index; hydraulic conductivity of surface sealing.

Florentino, A.; Torres, D.; Ospina, A.; Contreras, J.; Palma, Z.; Silvera, J.

2012-04-01

230

Comparisons for Three Kinds of Quantile-based Risk Measures  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This article compares three kinds of quantile-based risk measures: VaR, ES and a new proposed coherent risk measure called iso-entropic risk measure. The main factors to be compared are convexity, the volume of information which is used to measure the risk, relationship between these risk measures and stochastic dominances. It is pointed that though ES holds convexity, it only utilizes local information as VaR and is consistent with stochastic dominances lowers than second-order. However, iso-entropic risk measure utilizes the whole information to measure the risk, it is not a 0-1 risk measure and it is consistent with stochastic dominances of almost all the orders. So, it is most powerful for discrimination of risk. Simulation cases demonstrate this.

Chengli Zheng

2014-01-01

231

Cash Sub-additive Risk Measures and Interest Rate Ambiguity  

CERN Multimedia

A new class of risk measures called cash sub-additive risk measures is introduced to assess the risk of future financial, nonfinancial and insurance positions. The debated cash additive axiom is relaxed into the cash sub additive axiom to preserve the original difference between the numeraire of the current reserve amounts and future positions. Consequently, cash sub-additive risk measures can model stochastic and/or ambiguous interest rates or defaultable contingent claims. Practical examples are presented and in such contexts cash additive risk measures cannot be used. Several representations of the cash sub-additive risk measures are provided. The new risk measures are characterized by penalty functions defined on a set of sub-linear probability measures and can be represented using penalty functions associated with cash additive risk measures defined on some extended spaces. The issue of the optimal risk transfer is studied in the new framework using inf-convolution techniques. Examples of dynamic cash su...

Karoui, Nicole El

2007-01-01

232

Monitoring and mitigating measures to reduce potential impacts of oil and gas exploration and development on bears in the Inuvik region  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Inuvik Region consists of the Northwest Territories portion of the Inuvialuit Settlement Region and the Gwich'in Settlement Area. The range of grizzly bears, polar bears and black bears extends to different parts of the region. The potential impact of development depends on the season of the development and the species of bear found in the footprint. As such, monitoring and mitigation measures should take this into consideration. This presentation focused on the potential impacts and current practices to monitor and mitigate the impacts in the region. Mitigation measures currently used include: communication with stakeholders; waste management guidelines; use of wildlife monitors to identify key habitat and den sites and to deter bears; minimum flight altitudes; and safety training. Suggestions for additional mitigation measures were also presented. figs.

Branigan, M. [Government of the Northwest Territories, Inuvik, NT (Canada). Dept. of Environment and Natural Resources

2007-07-01

233

Spray drift of pesticides and stream macroinvertebrates: Experimental evidence of impacts and effectiveness of mitigation measures  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Impoverished stream communities in agricultural landscapes have been associated with pesticide contamination, but conclusive evidence of causality is rare. We address this deficiency by adopting an experimental approach to investigate the effects of the insecticides cypermethrin and chlorpyrifos on benthic macroinvertebrates. Three treatments were established and a combination of biomarker, bioassay and biomonitoring approaches was employed to investigate, individual, population and community-level effects. Animals deployed during pesticide application had altered enzyme activity, depressed feeding rate and reduced survival, but these effects were only observed where pesticide was sprayed to the stream edge. There were no clear pesticide-related effects on macroinvertebrate community structure or on the population densities of individual species. Hence, short-term pesticide exposure did cause individual-level effects in stream macroinvertebrates, but these were not translated to effects at the population or community-level and were effectively mitigated by the adoption of a no-spray buffer zone. - Pulsed pesticide exposures via spray drift adversely affected stream invertebrates but did not cause population or community-level effects and were mitigated by no-spray buffer zones

2008-12-01

234

Spray drift of pesticides and stream macroinvertebrates: Experimental evidence of impacts and effectiveness of mitigation measures  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Impoverished stream communities in agricultural landscapes have been associated with pesticide contamination, but conclusive evidence of causality is rare. We address this deficiency by adopting an experimental approach to investigate the effects of the insecticides cypermethrin and chlorpyrifos on benthic macroinvertebrates. Three treatments were established and a combination of biomarker, bioassay and biomonitoring approaches was employed to investigate, individual, population and community-level effects. Animals deployed during pesticide application had altered enzyme activity, depressed feeding rate and reduced survival, but these effects were only observed where pesticide was sprayed to the stream edge. There were no clear pesticide-related effects on macroinvertebrate community structure or on the population densities of individual species. Hence, short-term pesticide exposure did cause individual-level effects in stream macroinvertebrates, but these were not translated to effects at the population or community-level and were effectively mitigated by the adoption of a no-spray buffer zone. - Pulsed pesticide exposures via spray drift adversely affected stream invertebrates but did not cause population or community-level effects and were mitigated by no-spray buffer zones.

Maltby, Lorraine [Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN (United Kingdom)], E-mail: l.maltby@sheffield.ac.uk; Hills, Louise [Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN (United Kingdom)

2008-12-15

235

Option-Implied Measures of Equity Risk  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Equity risk measured by beta is of great interest to both academics and practitioners. Existing estimates of beta use historical returns. Many studies have found option-implied volatility to be a strong predictor of future realized volatility. We find that option-implied volatility and skewness are also good predictors of future realized beta. Motivated by this finding, we establish a set of assumptions needed to construct a beta estimate from option-implied return moments using equity and index options. This beta can be computed using only option data on a single day. It is therefore potentially able to reflect sudden changes in the structure of the underlying company.

Chang, Bo-Young; Christoffersen, Peter F.

2012-01-01

236

Granulation-based Measure for Risk Assessment  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The weighted method is the most often used operators to aggregate criteria in decision making problems with the assumption that there are no interactions among criteria while in the real world, most criteria have inter-dependent or interactive characteristics. The discrete Choquet integral is a more suitable aggregation operator as it takes into accounts the interactions and not assuming the additivity and independence. This study proposes a granulation-based method to construct fuzzy measures needed by the discrete Choquet integral and a real data set is analyzed. The advantage of the granulation-based method is that no population probability is to be estimated such that the error of estimating the population probability is reduced. Three methods, including weighted sum method, the discrete Choquet integral with the entropy-based method and our proposed discrete Choquet integral with the granulation-based method, are used in this study to evaluate the enterprise financial risk based on a comprehensive assessment of the financial risk by multiple discriminant analysis. The results show that the discrete Choquet integral with the granulation-based method outperform the weighted sum method and the discrete Choquet integral with the entropy-based method in the evaluation of enterprise financial risk.

Xi-Hua Li

2013-01-01

237

Evaluating the effectiveness of urban energy conservation and GHG mitigation measures: The case of Xiamen city, China  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

To assess the effectiveness of urban energy conservation and GHG mitigation measures, a detailed Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model is developed and applied to analyze the future trends of energy demand and GHG emissions in Xiamen city. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future energy strategies in relation to the development of Xiamen city. The 'Business as Usual' scenario assumes that the government will do nothing to influence the long-term trends of urban energy demand. An 'Integrated' scenario, on the other hand, is generated to assess the cumulative impact of a series of available reduction measures: clean energy substitution, industrial energy conservation, combined heat and power generation, energy conservation in building, motor vehicle control, and new and renewable energy development and utilization. The reduction potentials in energy consumption and GHG emissions are estimated for a time span of 2007-2020 under these different scenarios. The calculation results in Xiamen show that the clean energy substitution measure is the most effective in terms of energy saving and GHG emissions mitigation, while the industrial sector has the largest abatement potential.

2010-09-01

238

Investigation of radon entry and effectiveness of mitigation measures in seven houses in New Jersey: Midproject report  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A detailed radon mitigation study is in progress in 14 homes in the New Jersey Piedmont area. The principal goals are the refinement of diagnostic measurements for selection and implementation of mitigation systems, and the reduction of radon concentrations to acceptable levels inside the study houses. Monitoring stations were installed in each home in October, 1986. Instrumented measurements included: basement and upstairs radon; differential pressures across the basement/subslag, basement/upstairs and basement/outdoor interfaces; temperatures at basement, upstairs and outdoor locations; and central air handler usage. A weather station was located at one house, monitoring wind speed and direction; barometric pressure; precipitation; soil temperature; and outdoor temperature and relative humidity. A time-averaged value of all of the above parameters was recorded every 30 min. Several additional parameters were monitored on an intermittent basis in all or selected homes. These include multizone air infiltration rates which have been measured in all homes using passive perfluorocarbon tracers (PFT) and in two homes using a constant concentration tracer gas system (CCTG). Total radon progeny, soil gas radon concentration and permeability characteristics, and gamma radiation levels were also monitored periodically in all study homes. 10 refs., 53 figs

1987-01-01

239

Natural gas pipeline risk management. Volume 4. Identification of risk management methodologies. Final report  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This document describes the elements that must be present in a comprehensive risk management program. The broad aspects of a risk management program are: hazard identification, hazard evaluation, consequence analysis, risk assessment, prevention measures, mitigation measures, risk reduction, and risk acceptance. Within each of these process steps are numerous program elements that define the general risk management activities.

NONE

1995-10-01

240

Construction and measurements of a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system  

CERN Document Server

Long-lived alpha and beta emitters in the $^{222}$Rn decay chain on (and near) detector surfaces may be the limiting background in many experiments attempting to detect dark matter or neutrinoless double-beta decay, and in screening detectors. In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto the wires of the BetaCage during its assembly, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at Syracuse University using a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system. The radon filter shows ~20$\\times$ reduction at its output, from 7.47$\\pm$0.56 to 0.37$\\pm$0.12 Bq/m$^3$, and the cleanroom radon activity meets project requirements, with a lowest achieved value consistent with that of the filter, and levels consistently < 2 Bq/m$^3$.

Schnee, R W; Ghulam, G; Jardin, D; Kos, M; Tenney, A S

2014-01-01

 
 
 
 
241

Construction and measurements of a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Long-lived alpha and beta emitters in the {sup 222}Rn decay chain on (and near) detector surfaces may be the limiting background in many experiments attempting to detect dark matter or neutrinoless double beta decay, and in screening detectors. In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto the wires of the Beta Cage during its assembly, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at Syracuse University using a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system. The radon filter shows ?20× reduction at its output, from 7.47±0.56 to 0.37±0.12 Bq/m{sup 3}, and the cleanroom radon activity meets project requirements, with a lowest achieved value consistent with that of the filter, and levels consistently < 2 Bq/m{sup 3}.

Schnee, R. W.; Bunker, R.; Ghulam, G.; Jardin, D.; Kos, M.; Tenney, A. S. [Department of Physics, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY 13244 (United States)

2013-08-08

242

Construction and measurements of a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system  

Science.gov (United States)

Long-lived alpha and beta emitters in the 222Rn decay chain on (and near) detector surfaces may be the limiting background in many experiments attempting to detect dark matter or neutrinoless double beta decay, and in screening detectors. In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto the wires of the Beta Cage during its assembly, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at Syracuse University using a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system. The radon filter shows ~20× reduction at its output, from 7.47+/-0.56 to 0.37+/-0.12 Bq/m3, and the cleanroom radon activity meets project requirements, with a lowest achieved value consistent with that of the filter, and levels consistently Bq/m3.

Schnee, R. W.; Bunker, R.; Ghulam, G.; Jardin, D.; Kos, M.; Tenney, A. S.

2013-08-01

243

EPA program to demonstrate mitigation measures for indoor radon: initial results  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

EPA has installed radon mitigation techniques in 18 concrete block basement homes in the Reading Prong region of eastern Pennsylvania. Three alternative active soil ventilation approaches were tested: suction on the void network within the concrete block basement walls; suction on the footing drain tile system; and suction on the aggregate underneath the concrete slab. The initial 18 mitigation installations were designed to demonstrate techniques which would have low to moderate installation and operating costs. Where effective closure of major openings in the block walls is possible, suction on the wall voids has proved to be extremely effective, able to reduce homes having very high radon Working Levels (up to 7 WL) to 0.02 WL and less. However, where inaccessible major openings are concealed within the wall, it is more difficult and/or more expensive to develop adequate suction on the void network, and performance is reduced. Testing is continuing to demonstrate the steps required to achieve high performance with wall suction in homes with such difficult-to close walls. Drain tile suction can be very effective where the drain tiles completely surround the home; drain tile suction is the least expensive and most aesthetic of the active soil ventilation approaches, but appears susceptible to spikes in radon levels when the basement is depressurized. Sub-slab suction as tested in this study - with one or two individual suction points in the slab - does not appear adequate to ensure sustained high levels of reduction on block wall basement homes; it appears to effectively treat slab-related soil gas entry routes so long as a uniform layer of aggregate is present, but it does not appear to effectively treat the wall-related entry routes. Closure of major openings might have improved sub-slab suction performance. 5 figures, 3 tables

1986-01-01

244

Design measures for prevention and mitigation of severe accidents at advanced water cooled reactors. Proceedings of a technical committee meeting  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Over 8500 reactor-years of operating experience have been accumulated with the current nuclear energy systems. New generations of nuclear power plants are being developed, building upon this background of experience. During the last decade, requirements for equipment specifically intended to minimize releases of radioactive material to the environment in the event of a core melt accident have been introduced, and designs for new plants include measures for preventing and mitigating a range of severe accident scenarios. The IAEA Technical Committee Meeting on Impact of Severe Accidents on Plant Design and Layout of Advanced Water Cooled Reactors was jointly organized by the Department of Nuclear Energy and the Department of Nuclear Safety to review measures which are being incorporated into advanced water cooled reactor designs for preventing and mitigating severe accidents, the status of experimental and analytical investigations of severe accident phenomena and challenges which support design decisions and accident management procedures, and to understand the impact of explicitly addressing severe accidents on the cost of nuclear power plants. This publication is intended to provide an objective source of information on this topic. It includes 14 papers presented at the Technical Committee meeting held in Vienna between 21-25 October 1996. It also includes a Summary and Findings of the Working Groups. The papers were grouped in three sections. A separate abstract was prepared for each paper

1996-10-21

245

The ICDP-CFDDP Project: Understanding caldera dynamics and mitigating the extreme risk of the most urbanised volcano in the World  

Science.gov (United States)

The Campi Flegrei Deep Drilling Project (CFDDP) entered the operative phase during the second half of 2012, with the pilot hole drilling. The Project was initiated to address two kinds of problems: 1) purely volcanological, to understand in detail the dynamics of the most explosive and yet mostly unknown volcanism on the Earth with the potential to generate global catastrophes, and 2) to mitigate the highest volcanic risk in the World, namely the one associated with the metropolitan area of Naples where more than 3,000,000 people are exposed to extreme risk. The CFDDP Project offers the only direct means to understand the physics driving the on-going ground uplift affecting the area since at least six centuries, through in situ and laboratory measurements of rock rheology and permeability. In particular, direct investigation at depth by drilling is essential for understanding the extent that shallow magma intrusion is involved in the uplift of 15 to 20 m accumulated over the last centuries. Such a high cumulative uplift corresponds to 1-10 km3 of new magma intruded into the system, depending on details of the model used. Such an erupted volume should be conservatively assumed as the worst scenario for a future eruption. This corresponds to a massive eruption, largest than any other one after the caldera-forming Yellow Tuff eruption of 15,000 y BP and not much smaller than that, which would anyway require evacuation of some millions people. An alternative possibility is that the cumulative uplift is mostly due to shallow geothermal perturbations as described in several recent publications. Both possibilities, each with widely differing hazard implications, rely strongly on as yet poorly known conditions at depth beneath the caldera. It is thus crucial to discriminate between these two opposing possibilities in order to clarify the worst scenario for a future eruption and to provide an invaluable tool for civil defence at this densely populated area. This presentation describes preliminary results obtained from CFDDP pilot hole, reaching a final depth of 502 m, which show considerable promise in answering the main open questions. From a volcanological point of view, they enlighten in an unprecedented way the dynamics of the Bagnoli-Fuorigrotta plain, the easternmost part of the caldera and the most densely populated because it includes the city of Naples. Furthermore, they allowed for the first in-situ measurements, at 500 m of depth, of loading stress and fluid-dynamical parameters like permeability, thus already representing a large step forward towards a complete fluid-dynamical interpretation of the ground uplift episodes called 'bradyseism'.

De Natale, Giuseppe; Troise, Claudia; Carlino, Stefano; Somma, Renato; Piochi, Monica; Di Vito, Mauro; Isaia, Roberto; De Vita, Sandro; Sacchi, Marco; Josè Jurado, Maria; Wiersberg, Thomas; Kueck, Jochem; Molisso, Flavia; Erzinger, Joerge; Kilburn, Christopher R. J.; Gudmundsson, Agust; Burg, Jean Pierre; Zappone, Alba; Hill, David P.

2013-04-01

246

The Belgian Risk Perception Barometer Risk Perception Measuring Instruments Revisited  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The recognition of the societal dimension of risk assessment has been at the cradle of the opinion research on risks. Since risk estimates are not fixed by experts anymore, but are considered to show variation across a diverse population, the people themselves must be asked how they experience the risks. Following the rise in popularity of risk assessment and the recognition of its 'human' dimension, the demand for public opinion surveys on risks has been increasing at a fast pace. Unfortunately, this high demand sees some negative consequences. First, surveys are frequently conducted by people lacking even a minimal knowledge of survey methodology. In this respect, we might think of a journal or a newspaper trying to impress their readers with the definitive public opinion poll about the latest issue in vogue. Second, time pressure causes experienced or trained researchers to lower themselves to 'quick and dirty' work. While methodologically flawed opinion research might not be something to worry about when appearing in the amusement press, concern is due if the results of a survey inspire policy development. Indeed, when public opinion research is conceived as an instrument to support rational, evidence based public policy, the strictest methodological standards should be applied, even if it is clear that scientific research will never substitute political reasoning. This contribution deals with the safeguarding and enhancing of the quality of large scale surveys focusing on risk perception and related issues. This attention is relevant, not only for the reason that methodological standards may be flawed due to the immense popularity of the opinion poll, but also because the results of opinion surveys may have far-reaching policy consequences.

Aeken, Koen van; Carle, Benny; Hardeman, Frank [SCK-CEN, Mol (Belgium). PISA

2006-09-15

247

The Belgian Risk Perception Barometer Risk Perception Measuring Instruments Revisited  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The recognition of the societal dimension of risk assessment has been at the cradle of the opinion research on risks. Since risk estimates are not fixed by experts anymore, but are considered to show variation across a diverse population, the people themselves must be asked how they experience the risks. Following the rise in popularity of risk assessment and the recognition of its 'human' dimension, the demand for public opinion surveys on risks has been increasing at a fast pace. Unfortunately, this high demand sees some negative consequences. First, surveys are frequently conducted by people lacking even a minimal knowledge of survey methodology. In this respect, we might think of a journal or a newspaper trying to impress their readers with the definitive public opinion poll about the latest issue in vogue. Second, time pressure causes experienced or trained researchers to lower themselves to 'quick and dirty' work. While methodologically flawed opinion research might not be something to worry about when appearing in the amusement press, concern is due if the results of a survey inspire policy development. Indeed, when public opinion research is conceived as an instrument to support rational, evidence based public policy, the strictest methodological standards should be applied, even if it is clear that scientific research will never substitute political reasoning. This contribution deals with the safeguarding and enhancing of the quality of large scale surveys focusing on risk perception and related issues. This attention is relevant, not only for the reason that methodological standards may be flawed due to the immense popularity of the opinion poll, but also because the results of opinion surveys may have far-reaching policy consequences

2006-09-01

248

The Efficiency of Irradiated Garlic Powder in Mitigation of Hypercholesterolemic Risk Factor in High cholesterol Fed Rats  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The present study was conducted to explore the efficiency of radiation processed dried garlic powder at 10, 15 and 20 kGy on the average daily body gain, internal organ weights, certain hematological and biochemical parameters; including total plasma protein, albumin, globulin, total cholesterol, low and high density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C and HDL-C), triglyceride levels, and aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT) activities in rats fed with a high-cholesterol diet. Experimental rats were fed a high cholesterol diet (10 g kg-1) with and without raw or radiation processed dried garlic powder at the above-mentioned doses for 6 weeks. Control rats were fed a casein diet (C). 20 g kg-1 dietary raw or irradiated dried garlic powder was used to supplemented cholesterol diet (Ch). It was observed that cholesterol-fed (Ch) animals had a significant increase in relative liver weight, plasma total cholesterol, LDL-C, triglyceride levels, LDL/HDL ratio, AST and ALT activities and a significant decrease in HDL-C level compared to the control group of rats fed on a Casein diet (C). However, when the rats were fed with a high cholesterol diet mixed with 20 g kg-1 raw (ChRG) or irradiated dried garlic powder at 10 (ChG10), 15 (ChG15), and 20 kGy (ChG20), there was a significant reduction in their relative liver weight, hemoglobin, haematocrit, plasma total cholesterol, LDL-C, triglyceride levels, LDL/HDL ratio, and increased HDL level and amended AST and ALT activities levels as compared with the group which was on a diet containing high cholesterol without garlic powder (Ch). No significant changes were observed in relative spleen, kidney, lung, heart and testes weights, as well as, the total plasma protein, albumin, globulin concentrations in all of treated groups. These results show that the dietary 20 g kg-1 irradiated dried garlic powder at 10, 15 and 20 kGy are beneficial in reducing plasma cholesterol, triglycerides, LDL-C levels, El-Neily and El-Shennawy, J. Rad. Res. Appl. Sci., Vol. 1272 4, No. 4(B)(2011) LDL/HDL ratio, AST and ALT activities in hypercholesterolemic rats. Irradiated dried garlic powder supplementation, also, increased HDL. In conclusion, irradiated dried garlic powder at 10, 15 and 20 kGy improved the plasma lipid levels in rats fed cholesterol-containing diets and increased the plasma HDL-C and reduced LDL/HDL ratio in groups of rats fed cholesterol-diets. The higher dose used (20 kGy) did not impair the bioactive compounds of dried garlic powder, and it can be used as an additive in cooking and as a protective pharmaceutical supplement for mitigation of hypercholesterolemic risk factor

2011-01-01

249

Risk acceptance criterion for tanker oil spill risk reduction measures.  

Science.gov (United States)

This paper is aimed at investigating whether there is ample support for the view that the acceptance criterion for evaluating measures for prevention of oil spills from tankers should be based on cost-effectiveness considerations. One such criterion can be reflected by the Cost of Averting a Tonne of oil Spilt (CATS) whereas its target value is updated by elaborating the inherent uncertainties of oil spill costs and establishing a value for the criterion's assurance factor. To this end, a value of $80,000/t is proposed as a sensible CATS criterion and the proposed value for the assurance factor F=1.5 is supported by the retrieved Protection and Indemnity (P&I) Clubs' Annual Reports. It is envisaged that this criterion would allow the conversion of direct and indirect costs into a non-market value for the optimal allocation of resources between the various parties investing in shipping. A review of previous cost estimation models on oil spills is presented and a probability distribution (log-normal) is fitted on the available oil spill cost data, where it should be made abundantly clear that the mean value of the distribution is used for deriving the updated CATS criterion value. However, the difference between the initial and the updated CATS criterion in the percentiles of the distribution is small. It is found through the current analysis that results are partly lower than the predicted values from the published estimation models. The costs are also found to depend on the type of accident, which is in agreement with the results of previous studies. Other proposals on acceptance criteria are reviewed and it is asserted that the CATS criterion can be considered as the best candidate. Evidence is provided that the CATS approach is practical and meaningful by including examples of successful applications in actual risk assessments. Finally, it is suggested that the criterion may be refined subject to more readily available cost data and experience gained from future decisions. PMID:20888015

Psarros, George; Skjong, Rolf; Vanem, Erik

2011-01-01

250

Using fine-scale fuel measurements to assess wildland fuels, potential fire behavior and hazard mitigation treatments in the southeastern USA  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The inherent spatial and temporal heterogeneity of fuelbeds in forests of the southeastern United States may require fine scale fuel measurements for providing reliable fire hazard and fuel treatment effectiveness estimates. In a series of five papers, an intensive, fine scale fuel inventory from the Savanna River Site in the southeastern United States is used for building fuelbeds and mapping fire behavior potential, evaluating fuel treatment options for effectiveness, and providing a comparative analysis of landscape modeled fire behavior using three different data sources including the Fuel Characteristic Classification System, LANDFIRE, and the Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment. The research demonstrates that fine scale fuel measurements associated with fuel inventories repeated over time can be used to assess broad scale wildland fire potential and hazard mitigation treatment effectiveness in the southeastern USA and similar fire prone regions. Additional investigations will be needed to modify and improve these processes and capture the true potential of these fine scale data sets for fire and fuel management planning.

2012-01-01

251

Can we measure individual risk attitudes in a survey?  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

We combine a survey and an experiment with real pay-out among Peking University students to measure and validate individual risk attitudes. The experiment involves choosing between a cash payment and playing a lottery. The survey questions ask for the reservation price of a hypothetical lottery and self-assessment of risk attitude on a 0-10 scale. We confirm familiar findings: risk aversion dominates, women are more risk averse than men, risk aversion decreases with increasing parental income...

Ding, Xiaohao; Hartog, Joop; Sun, Yuze

2010-01-01

252

Can we measure Individual Risk Attitudes in a Survey?  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

We combine a survey and an experiment with real pay-out among Peking University students to measure and validate individual risk attitudes. The experiment involves choosing between a cash payment and playing a lottery. The survey questions ask for the reservation price of a hypothetical lottery and self-assessment of risk attitude on a 0-10 scale. We confirm familiar findings: risk aversion dominates, women are more risk averse than men, risk aversion decreases with increasing parental income...

Ding, Xiaohao; Hartog, Joop; Sun, Yuze

2010-01-01

253

Study on the progression of severe core damage induced by SGTR and mitigation measures for QINSHAN NPP unit 1  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The progression of core damage induced by SGTR in Qinshan NPP Unit 1 is analyzed by a NPP severe accident simulator developed in this laboratory, based on SCDAP/RELAP5/MOD3.1 and PROSYS. By employing the results of USA SAN ONOFRE NPP's IPE and SURRY's PSA, to end the core damage progression and mitigate the consequences of SGTR, the measures for the management of the severe accident induced by SGTR are selected, such as feed-and-bleed and depressurization, which are verified through the calculation by using the simulator. The results suggest that the implementing of feed-and-bleed and depressurization could be an available and effective way to arrest the SGTR sequences in Qinshan NPP unit 1

2004-06-01

254

Traffic related air pollution : spatial variation, health effects and mitigation measures  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Air pollution is probably the most intensely studied field in today’s environmental health research. The extensive body of literature on health effects associated with air pollution exposure has lead to prioritization of air pollution as public health risk factor and air quality regulations worldwide. At current levels air pollution, however, still has a significant health impact. Science could play an important role in the continuing policy debate on this issue, by providing a solid eviden...

2011-01-01

255

Analysis of Contributing Factors to Desertification and Mitigation Measures in Basilicata Region  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Soil, vegetation, climate and management are the main factors affecting environmental sensitivity to degradation, through their intrinsic characteristics or by their interaction with the landscape. Different levels of degradation risks may be observed in response to particular combinations of the aforementioned factors. For instance, the combination of inappropriate management practices and intrinsically weak soil conditions will result in a degradation of the environment of a severe level, w...

2010-01-01

256

Measurement and mitigation of methane emissions from beef cattle in tropical grazing systems: a perspective from Australia and Brazil.  

Science.gov (United States)

The growing global demand for food of animal origin will be the incentive for countries such as Australia and Brazil to increase their beef production and international exports. This increased supply of beef is expected to occur primarily through on-farm productivity increases. The strategies for reducing resultant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions should be evaluated in the context of the production system and should encompass a broader analysis, which would include the emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) and carbon sequestration. This paper provides an insight into CH4 measurement techniques applicable to grazing environments and proposed mitigation strategies, with relevance to the production systems that are predominant in grazing systems of Australia and Brazil. Research and technology investment in both Australia and Brazil is aimed at developing measurement techniques and increasing the efficiency of cattle production by improving herd genetics, utilization of the seasonal feed-base and reducing the proportion of metabolizable energy lost as CH4. Concerted efforts in these areas can be expected to reduce the number of unproductive animals, reduce age at slaughter and inevitably reduce emission intensity (EI) from beef production systems. Improving efficiency of livestock production systems in tropical grazing systems for Australia and Brazil will be based on cultivated and existing native pastures and the use of additives and by-products from other agricultural sectors. This approach spares grain-based feed reserves typically used for human consumption, but potentially incurs a heavier EI than current intensive feeding systems. The determination of GHG emissions and the value of mitigation outcomes for entire beef production systems in the extensive grazing systems is complex and require a multidisciplinary approach. It is fortunate that governments in both Australia and Brazil are supporting ongoing research activities. Nevertheless, to achieve an outcome that feeds a growing population while reducing emissions on a global scale continues to be a monumental challenge for ruminant nutritionists. PMID:23739477

Berndt, A; Tomkins, N W

2013-06-01

257

Iran Mortality and Measures of Risk: Rankings for Public policy  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

"nBackground: This paper offers mortality risk rankings for Iranian mortality data. It extends methods to include mixed co­horts, tests changes in mortality risks, compares measures of risk and discusses public policy implications."nMethods: The methodology used in risk measures takes current practice and extends it to include variations in population dy­nam­ics. The specification is presented and compared with existing literature."nResults: Our findings confirm lit...

Aalabaf-sabaghi, M.

2010-01-01

258

Comprehensive assessments of measures mitigating heat island phenomena in urban areas; Heat shinku wo riyoshita daikibo reibo system no kaihatsu  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper describes actual condition and measures against heat island (HI) phenomena in large urban areas with buildings. Tokyo was selected as a model. To extract typical pattern of daily change of air temperature, statistic analysis was conducted using the existing air temperature data at 100 points in and near the city of Tokyo. As a result, five patterns were obtained, i.e., central city, sea/land water affecting zone, thickly settled suburbs, garden city, and countryside. Each one point was selected in each pattern, to measure the underground temperature. It was found that the effect of HI can be easily evaluated from the underground temperature. It was suggested that the HI effect in the central city is estimated to be around 3.6 {degree}C. The measures mitigating HI were divided into the thermal balance improvement in the whole district and the temperature improvement of living space by homogenization or inhomogenization. Energy conservation was investigated for improving the thermal balance which can be practically conducted. According to the measures, it was found that the air temperature in the central city can be decreased by about 0.5 {degree}C at maximum. 3 figs., 1 tab.

Ishitani, H.; Yamada, K.; Yamaji, K.; Matsuhashi, T.; Iizuka, E.; Suzuki, T.; Genchi, H.; Komiyama, H. [The University of Tokyo, Tokyo (Japan)

1997-02-01

259

The Price of Dynamic Inconsistency for Distortion Risk Measures  

CERN Multimedia

In this paper, we investigate two different frameworks for assessing the risk in a multi-period decision process: a dynamically inconsistent formulation (whereby a single, static risk measure is applied to the entire sequence of future costs), and a dynamically consistent one, obtained by suitably composing one-step risk mappings. We characterize the class of dynamically consistent measures that provide a tight approximation for a given inconsistent measure, and discuss how the approximation factors can be computed. For the case where the consistent measures are given by Average Value-at-Risk, we derive a polynomial-time algorithm for approximating an arbitrary inconsistent distortion measure. We also present exact analytical bounds for the case where the dynamically inconsistent measure is also given by Average Value-at-Risk, and briefly discuss managerial implications in multi-period risk-assessment processes. Our theoretical and algorithmic constructions exploit interesting connections between the study of...

Huang, Pu; Petrik, Marek; Subramanian, Dharmashankar

2011-01-01

260

What risk measures are time consistent for all filtrations?  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

We study coherent risk measures which are time-consistent for multiple filtrations. We show that a coherent risk measure is time-consistent for every filtration if and only if it is one of four main types. Furthermore, if the risk measure is strictly monotone it is linear, and if the reference probability space is not atomic then it is either linear or an essential supremum.

Cohen, Samuel N.

2010-01-01

 
 
 
 
261

Study on the Priority of Measuring against Scenario Earthquakes Based on Seismic Risk Estimation  

Science.gov (United States)

Local governments must prepare the regional mitigation plans on the basis of seismic hazard and risk estimation. The seismic risk estimation of 36 patterns of assumable scenario earthquakes with a variety of source parameters was done for Kitami City, Hokkaido Prefecture that is our research target. Taking account of each priority in the bureaus related to disaster prevention measures of the government, we proposed a new approach for choosing the more prior earthquakes among the assumable scenario earthquakes. By applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (abbreviated to AHP) to the damage data, which we simulated under the 36 patterns of scenario earthquakes, multiplying by the weighted coefficients on the priority of each bureau; we selected the most important earthquakes of Kitami hazardous areas.

Tomatsu, Makoto; Okada, Shigeyuki

262

Compensation in Flood Risk Management with a Focus on Shifts in Compensation Regimes Regarding Prevention, Mitigation and Disaster Management  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In the Netherlands, the history of water management and water safety especially, goes back centuries. Compensation of damage caused by lawful acts of an administrative body (no-fault liability is developed mostly in the field of water management and has quite a long history as well. The compensation of no-fault liability in the Netherlands since its introduction has been part of public law and not of civil law. This does not mean that the administration cannot be held liable for wrongful actions, in which case private law is applied. There is a strict distinction between wrongful and lawful acts of the administration: both can cause damage, but the way they are compensated differs: for lawful acts, public law is applied and for wrongful acts civil law (tort law is applied. This article only considers public law, because it is the most important branch of law for the compensation of damage caused in the field of water safety. The field of water safety and flood risk management has seen many new developments, of which integration is the latest one. However, the course of flood risk management tends towards more segmentation of responsibilities. No-fault liability and other questions of compensation are also areas that are developing towards more integration. Assessment of  no-fault liability in the field of water safety management cannot be made without taking into consideration the historical development of the responsibility of the state for water management tasks in general. In this contribution, the author addresses the historical development of responsibilities of the state for water management tasks, recent developments in this area and the system of no-fault liability regarding measures to prevent flooding.

Willemijn van Doorn-Hoekveld

2014-05-01

263

Bank Risk Measurement: A Critical Evaluation at a European Bank  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This article assesses bank management’s perspective on the use and effectiveness of the risk measurement system under Basel II that setcapital requirements for banks. These requirements encouraged the use of risk measurement. Semi-structured interviews with various bank managers at Viking Bank (a fictitious name provide the empirical data for this research. These interviews were conducted after the global financial crisis that led, among other events, to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. Viking Bank was an important European bank that embraced Basel II and risk measurement. In its efforts to implement risk measurement, the bank’s management accounting department was reduced and subordinated to the risk measurement department. Risk measurement information became the bank’s primary source of information for some loans. However, in their decision-making, managers showed mixed support for risk measurement that had, in some instances, become disconnected from operations. For other loans, they preferred to use their so-called Expert Judgement. The narrow and limited career paths available for the risk measurement specialists also reflected the decreased influence of risk measurement on decision-making at the bank.

Gunnar Wahlström

2013-06-01

264

Economic study on CO2 mitigating measures of power generation systems; Hatsuden gijutsu no kankyo taisaku cost bunseki  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper reports discussions on measures to mitigate CO2 emission from the power generation systems. The paper presents the result of deriving the unit requirement in CO2 emission that expresses the degree of global warming effect by different power generation plants. This is the amount of CO2 generated during the 30-year period as the life of the plants (a sum of the CO2 amount emitted directly and indirectly from all of the processes of mining, transporting and refining the fuel, generating the power, and disposing of wastes) divided by the amount of electric power generated during that period of time. A result is also presented that has derived the cost paid by the power plants for measures to prevent global warming. This is an increment of cost required to reduce CO2 emission (difference between a power generation cost when emission preventing technologies are used and an average power generation cost) divided by reduction amount of CO2 (the CO2 unit requirement when the emission preventing technologies are used is deducted from the average CO2 unit requirement). The paper makes clear that nuclear, hydro and geothermal power plants have smaller effect on the global warming, and the cost for environmental measures gives greater effect in reducing the CO2 emission. 3 refs., 7 figs., 3 tabs.

Uchiyama, Y. [Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Tokyo (Japan)

1995-07-31

265

Comparative and qualitative robustness for law-invariant risk measures  

CERN Multimedia

When estimating the risk of a P&L from historical data or Monte Carlo simulation, the robustness of the estimate is important. We argue here that Hampel's classical notion of qualitative robustness is not suitable for risk measurement and we propose and analyze a refined notion of robustness that applies to tail-dependent law-invariant convex risk measures on Orlicz space. This concept of robustness captures the tradeoff between robustness and sensitivity and can be quantified by an index of qualitative robustness. By means of this index, we can compare various risk measures, such as distortion risk measures, in regard to their degree of robustness. Our analysis also yields results that are of independent interest such as continuity properties and consistency of estimators for risk measures, or a Skorohod representation theorem for {\\psi}-weak convergence.

Krätschmer, Volker; Zähle, Henryk

2012-01-01

266

Analysis and mitigation of measurement uncertainties in the traceability chain for the calibration of photovoltaic devices  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper describes the traceability chain for photovoltaic devices and the measurement methods employed to perform the various transfer steps. The measurement uncertainties are analysed in detail based on the accreditation of the European Solar Test Installation (ESTI) for the calibration of photovoltaic devices. The various contributions to the overall uncertainty are critically analysed for various traceability chain options. A major contribution is the uncertainty in the calibration of the primary reference device. The overall measurement uncertainty is reduced using the ESTI reference cell set compared to the traceability from the world photovoltaic scale. For the maximum power of photovoltaic modules, the expanded combined uncertainty is reduced from ±2.6% to below ±2%. Recommendations are made on the scope for further reduction of uncertainty and for the best calibration strategy for various PV technologies

2009-07-01

267

Risk measurement and management in a crisis-prone world  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The current subprime crisis has prompted us to look again into the nature of risk at the tail of the distribution. In particular, we investigate the risk contribution of an asset, which has infrequent but huge losses, to a portfolio using two risk measures, namely Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). While ES is found to measure the tail risk contribution effectively, VaR is consistent with intuition only if the underlying return distribution is well behaved. To facilitate the use...

Wong, Woon K.; Copeland, Laurence

2008-01-01

268

Preventive measures: how youngsters avoid online risks  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

To protect children from online risks, it is important to recognise that children’s perceptions of online problematic situations may greatly differ from those of adults. What adults perceive as problematic does not necessarily result in a negative or harmful experience for children. This report shows that children’s perceptions of online risks strongly depend on their awareness of how online activities may turn into problematic or harmful situations. Also import...

Vandoninck, Sofie; D Haenens, Leen; Smahel, David

2014-01-01

269

Measures of Association Applied to Operational Risks  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Association rules are a basic analysis tools for unstructured data such as accident reports, call centres recordings and CRM logs. Such tools are commonly used in basket analysis of shopping carts for identifying patterns in consumer behaviour. In this chapter we show how association rules are used to analyze unstructured operational risk data in order to provide risk assessments and diagnostic insights. We will also present a new graphical display of association rules that permits effective ...

Salini, Silvia

2010-01-01

270

Measures of association applied to operational risks  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Association rules are a basic analysis tools for unstructured data such as accident reports, call centres recordings and CRM logs. Such tools are commonly used in basket analysis of shopping carts for identifying patterns in consumer behaviour. In this chapter we show how association rules are used to analyze unstructured operational risk data in order to provide risk assessments and diagnostic insights. We will also present a new graphical display of association rules that permits effective ...

Salini, Silvia

2011-01-01

271

Soil erosion and mitigation measures on rented and owned fields in Uruguay: the impact of transgenic soya and foreign investors  

Science.gov (United States)

Governments, companies and individuals with financial capital to invest, are worldwide buying or renting land in developing or third world countries. Uruguay is a developing country whose economy is mainly based on agriculture. Since 2000 many foreigners started to invest in the Uruguayan agricultural sector and to practice intensive large-scale agriculture. The significant presence of foreigners in the country is proven by the fact that almost 360 000 ha out of the 500 000 ha forming the study area were managed by foreigners in 2012. Nowadays farmers have abandoned the traditional crop rotation plan that included pasture to produce grain for export, and transgenic soya (soya RR) became the main crop planted by both foreigners and locals. Besides the high soil erosion rates related to having soya as main crop, planting soya implies the use of glyphosate, a broad-spectrum systemic herbicide leading to important environmental impacts. It is commonly said that foreigners investing in poor countries are exploiting the local natural resources aiming to get the highest possible profit from them. Is this a valid assumption in Uruguay? The purpose of this study was to compare the land management style of foreign and local farmers and to relate it to the soil erosion occurring in the study area. The land tenure (rented or owned fields) and the type of farmer interviewed ("individual farmer" equivalent to L.L.C. or "anonymous society" equivalent to P.L.C.) were taken into consideration during the analysis. Based on what stated by the farmers interviewed, the soil erosion simulations considered the seven most popular crop rotation plans on rented and owned fields, three ideals crop rotation plans, the application of no mitigation measures, and the construction of terraces and conservation buffers. Depending on the crop rotation plan, soils characterized by slope gradients higher than 2 resulted in soil erosion rates higher than the 7 ton/ha/year allowed by law. The highest soil erosion rates corresponded to crop rotation plans having high percentage of soybeans and low percentages of sorghum and/or maize. In addition, the soil erosion rate was even higher when only one crop, especially soybeans, was planted during an agricultural year. Although there were not significant differences in the land management style between foreign and local farmers, the land management style significantly differed between L.L.C. and P.L.C., and between owned and rented fields. Compared to L.L.C., P.L.C. applied more soil erosion mitigation measures on both rented and owned fields and invested in research. Owned fields resulted to be better managed than rented fields in which soil erosion mitigation measures were taken only in presence of an agreement with the landlord. Indeed, although the construction of terraces having a distance of 30-50 m significantly reduced the soil erosion rate, those were mainly built on owned fields.

Caon, Lucrezia; Kessler, Aad; Keesstra, Saskia; Cruze, Rick

2014-05-01

272

Evaluation of environmental impacts caused by hydroelectric power plants in native forest areas and mitigation measures  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The following work has the intention of demonstrating the importance of native forest to the human life, not only through its inherent qualities as something to preserve, but also as a source of great resources, and in particular hydroelectric resource that, by today's necessities are bounded to be explored. The negative effects caused by the implementation of a hydroelectric plant are shown together with the necessity of adoption of measures that would soften the environment impact of it. For the adoption of those measures, many forest studies were proposed in the search for its complete characterization. Each of these studies are duly defined and presented in their general and specific goals. The most adequate methodology is finally recommended. (author). 14 refs

1992-05-24

273

Flood and rockslide mitigative measures for the concrete sections of the Daisy Lake Dam  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Studies conducted under British Columbia Hydro's dam safety program during the early 1980s indicated that dam sections of the Daisy Lake Dam would be overtopped by the probable maximum flood (PMF) and by a postulated slide generated wave (SGW). It was considered that the overtopping by either of the events could cause several sections of the concrete dam to fall, thereby resulting in uncontrolled release of the reservoir. The criteria used for determining foundation strength parameters, static and SGW induced water pressures, effective uplift and the appropriate factors of safety are discussed. The results of the analyses for the original dam sections and the design and implementation of the selected remedial measures are also described. These measures included lowering the Wing Dam and Saddle Dam by about 2 m to increase the spillway capacity and the installation of 43 post-tensioned anchors in the various sections of the main concrete and Wing dams. 9 refs., 8 figs., 3 tabs

1991-09-01

274

Dermatologic radiotherapy and thyroid cancer. Dose measurements and risk quantification  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thyroid doses for various dermatologic radiation techniques were measured with thermoluminescent dosimeters and ionization rate meters in an Alderson-Rando anthropomorphic phantom. The effects of changes in radiation quality and of the use or nonuse of treatment cones and thyroid shields were evaluated in detail. The results indicate that the potential risk of radiogenic thyroid cancer is very small when proper radiation protection measures are used. The probability of radiogenic thyroid cancer developing and the potential mortality risk were assessed quantitatively for each measurement. The quantification of radiation risks allows comparisons with risks of other therapeutic modalities and the common hazards of daily life

1983-01-01

275

Dynamic portfolio managment based on complex quantile risk measures  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The article focuses on effectiveness evaluation combined measures of financial risks, which are convex combinations of measures VaR, CVaR and their analogues for the right distribution tail functions of a portfolio returns.

Ekaterina V. Tulupova

2011-05-01

276

Epidemiological study on risk factors and risk reducing measures for campylobacter infections in Dutch broiler flocks.  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

From September 1991 until August 1993 an epidemiological study involving 20 Dutch broiler farms was conducted to identify risk factors and risk reducing measures for campylobacter infections in broiler flocks. Campylobacter spp. were detected in 64 (57%) of the 112 broiler flocks and in 25 (63%) of the 40 broiler cycles examined. Univariate analysis of farm management data was performed followed by logistic regression analysis of selected risk and risk reducing factors. The presence of other ...

1996-01-01

277

Measuring excessive risk-taking in banking  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

In this paper writers propose a new approach to the assessment of excessive risktaking by a banking sector. They use the portfolio approach to assess the optimal risk-return combination of a bank’s portfolio, based on data for 32 categories of loans. It provides a benchmark for the optimality of the bank’s portfolio.

Podpiera, Jir?i?; Weill, Laurent

2009-01-01

278

An Interaction Model for Simulation and Mitigation of Cascading Failures  

CERN Multimedia

Cascading failures triggered by trivial initial events are encountered in many complex systems. It is actually not any specific reason but the interaction between components of the system that causes cascading failures. Based on this idea interactions between components are quantified and the interaction matrix and interaction network are obtained. By using the quantified interactions, key links and key components that play important roles in the propagation of cascading failures are identified. An interaction model is also proposed to simulate cascading failures by using the interactions and to study the influence of these interactions on the cascading failure risk. Interaction-based mitigation measures are suggested to mitigate the cascading failure risk by eliminating a small number of key links, which can be achieved in real systems by wide area protection such as blocking of some specific protective relays. The proposed interaction quantifying method, cascading failure model, and mitigation measures are ...

Qi, Junjian; Mei, Shengwei

2014-01-01

279

Comprehensive assessments of measures mitigating heat island phenomena in urban areas; Heat shinku wo riyoshita daikibo reibo system no kaihatsu  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper describes the assessment method of measures mitigating heat island phenomena in urban areas. The heat island phenomena were classified into meso-scale with 100 km-scale, block-scale with several km-scale, and building-scale with 100 m-scale. Urban thermal environment simulation model was developed in response to each scale. For the development, regional data using aircraft and artificial satellite observations, surface observation and thermal environment observation at Shinjuku new central city of Tokyo, and artificial waste heat actual survey data in the southern Kanto district were utilized. Results of the urban thermal environment simulation were introduced as an application of this model. Temperature distributions of the heat island in the Kanto district were simulated with considering urban conditions near Tokyo and without considering it. Daily changes of wall surfaces of high buildings and road surface were calculated. Increase in the air temperature in the back stream of building roofs with increased temperature was determined. 4 figs.

Mizuno, T.; Yamamoto, S.; Yoshikado, H.; Kondo, H.; Kaneho, N.; Saegusa, N.; Inaba, A. [National Institute for Resources and Environment, Tsukuba (Japan); Inoue, M. [New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization, Tokyo, (Japan)

1997-02-01

280

Proceedings of third Indo-German workshop and theme meeting on seismic safety of structures, risk assessment and disaster mitigation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This Indo-German workshop focuses and emphasises the current research and development activities in both the countries. Themes of this meeting are Earthquake Hazard and Vulnerability Assessment, Risk Assessment Techniques, Seismic Risk to Mega Cities, Testing and Evaluation of Structures and Components, Base Isolation and other Control Techniques, Seismic Strengthening of Structures, Design Practices and Specifications, Remote Sensing and GIS Applications, Structural Materials and Composites, Containment and Other Special Structures. Papers relevant to INIS are indexed separately

2007-01-01

 
 
 
 
281

Mitigating environmental risks in small-scale activities: what role for microfinance? A case study from El Salvador  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Small-scale activities in developing countries face environmental risks that represent direct threats to populations’ health and livelihoods. Recently, some donors and experts have claimed that microfinance institutions (MFIs) could play a role in fostering pro-environmental behaviours among their client microentrepreneurs. This paper seeks to identify the challenges that an MFI can face when implementing an environmental risk management program. We based our analysis on a case study of a p...

Allet, Marion

2012-01-01

282

C-Band Airport Surface Communications System Engineering-Initial High-Level Safety Risk Assessment and Mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed C-band (5091- to 5150-MHz) airport surface communication system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents an initial high-level safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the C-band communication system after the profile is finalized and system rollout timing is determined. A security risk assessment has been performed by NASA as a parallel activity. While safety analysis is concerned with a prevention of accidental errors and failures, the security threat analysis focuses on deliberate attacks. Both processes identify the events that affect operation of the system; and from a safety perspective the security threats may present safety risks.

Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

2011-01-01

283

Dynamic risk measuring under model uncertainty: taking advantage of the hidden probability measure  

CERN Document Server

We study dynamic risk measures in a very general framework enabling to model uncertainty and processes with jumps. We previously showed the existence of a canonical equivalence class of probability measures hidden behind a given set of probability measures possibly non dominated. Taking advantage of this result, we exhibit a dual representation that completely characterizes the dynamic risk measure. We prove continuity and characterize time consistency. Then, we prove regularity for all processes associated to time consistent convex dynamic risk measures. We also study factorization through time for sublinear risk measures. Finally we consider examples (uncertain volatility and G-expectations).

Bion-Nadal, Jocelyne

2010-01-01

284

A Non-Gaussian Approach to Risk Measures  

CERN Multimedia

Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modeling the power-law tails of the returns distribution in terms of a Student-t distribution. Non-Gaussian closed-form solutions for Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall are obtained and standard formulae known in the literature under the normality assumption are recovered as a special case. The implications of the approach for risk management are demonstrated through an empirical analysis of financial time series from the Italian stock market and in comparison with the results of the most widely used procedures of quantitative finance. Particular attention is paid to quantify the size of the errors affecting the market risk measures obtained according to different methodologies, by employing a bootstrap technique.

Bormetti, G; Montagna, G; Nicrosini, O

2006-01-01

285

Distortion Risk Measures or the Transformation of Unimodal Distributions into Multimodal Functions  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The particular subject of this paper, is to construct a general framework that can consider and analyse in the same time upside and downside risks. This paper offers a comparative analysis of concept risk measures, we focus on quantile based risk measure (ES and VaR), spectral risk measure and distortion risk measure. After introducing each measure, we investigate their interest and limit. Knowing that quantile based risk measure cannot capture correctly the risk aversion of risk manager and ...

Guegan, Dominique; Hassani, Bertrand

2014-01-01

286

A measure of explained risk in the proportional hazards model  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

A measure of explained risk is developed for application with the proportional hazards model. The statistic, which is called the estimated explained relative risk, has a simple analytical form and is unaffected by censoring that is independent of survival time conditional on the covariates. An asymptotic confidence interval for the limiting value of the estimated explained relative risk is derived, and the role of individual factors in the computation of its estimate is established. Simulatio...

Heller, Glenn

2012-01-01

287

The Midweight Method to Measure Attitudes towards Risk and Ambiguity  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This paper introduces a parameter-free method for measuring the weighting functions of prospect theory and rank-dependent utility. These weighting functions capture risk attitudes, subjective beliefs, and ambiguity attitudes. Our method, called the midweight method, is based on a convenient way to obtain midpoints in the weighting function scale. It can be used both for risk (known probabilities) and for uncertainty (unknown probabilities). The resulting integrated treatment of risk and uncer...

Kuilen, G.; Wakker, P. P.

2009-01-01

288

Integrating Usage Stage Risk Measurement Tools in Distributed Applications  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Distributed application features are presented along with associated risks occurring during the development and production stages. Issues raised by incidents catalogued as risks are described. The MERICS software application is presented, being built for user-distributed system interaction analysis and component reliability measurement. The steps taken to accurately describe risks from an end-user scope, based on a comparative system, are shown. The model is implemented using previously-descr...

Tanasie, Catalin Alexandru

2012-01-01

289

Measuring and evaluating financial risk exposure for energy companies  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Over the last decades, the energy industry has been exposed to significant changes within the world marked. The intention of this thesis has therefore been to measure and evaluate financial risk exposure for energy companies. Financial risk has been the primary subject of this thesis. This subject has further been divided into one prediction and two hypotheses encompassing the theoretical framework of this thesis; recession versus growth, financial risk and investments. The prediction and hyp...

2009-01-01

290

BSDEs with jumps, optimization and applications to dynamic risk measures  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

In the Brownian case, the links between dynamic risk measures and BSDEs have been widely studied. In this paper, we study the case with jumps. We first study the properties of BSDEs driven by a Brownian motion and a Poisson random measure. In particular, we provide a comparison theorem, under quite weak assumptions, extending that of Royer \\cite{R}. We then give some properties of dynamic risk measures induced by BSDEs with jumps. We provide a representation property of such dynamic risk meas...

Quenez, Marie-claire; Sulem, Agne?s

2013-01-01

291

An Assessment of Nigerian Stakeholders’ the Perception of Environmental Offset as Mitigation Measures and Its’ Implication for Sustainable Industrial Development in Nigeria  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available An important tool for sustainable development in any country is Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA, and an important component of EIA is impact mitigation. In most cases, certain unwanted impacts of development projects are left without mitigation thereby reducing the gains of such developments. Thus, emerging in current literature is the concept of Environmental offset which provides a leeway for residual impacts of development projects. This study therefore assesses the perception and level of application of the environmental offset strategy by EIA Practitioners and other stakeholders in the mitigation of negative environmental impacts of developments in the Niger Delta, Nigeria as that would have significant implication for sustainable development efforts in Nigeria. The study found out that there is negative perception among the host communities about the suitability of offset as mitigation measure. Even though the EIA practitioners considers Environmental offset as a viable option, its adoption has been marred by the misgiving of the local people. This misgiving could be attributed to the long period of neglect and abandonment which has led to abject poverty in the region and loss of confidence in any institutional frameworks. Thus, this study concludes that the drive towards sustainable Development in Nigeria would remain a mirage unless the local people are properly integrated in the scheme of things.

P.C. Mmom

2011-07-01

292

Proceedings of the Canadian Institute's 4. annual oil sands supply and infrastructure conference : maximizing opportunity and mitigating risks in a rapidly growing market  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This conference addressed the challenges facing oil sands development, with particular reference to supply and infrastructure issues. Updates on oil sands markets and opportunities were presented along with strategies for mitigating risks in a rapidly growing market. The best practices for supplying a demanding market through supply shortages and high prices were identified along with policies that should be implemented to help overcome labour shortages. Some presentations expressed how commodities pricing and trends can impact business. Others showed how markets in China and the United States are prepared for oilsands products. The views of other international companies on oil sands was also discussed along with proposed plans to eliminate the infrastructure congestion and risks caused by expanding oil sands development. The challenges and benefits of investing in Alberta's oil sands were reviewed along with strategies to enhance upgrading and refining capacity in the province. Economic drivers and the creation of new markets were examined, and various export opportunities were reviewed along with industry management challenges concerning human resources, labour supply, training and education. The conference featured 10 presentations, of which 3 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs

2006-02-22

293

Measures of mitigation of oil outflow form tankers at stranding; Ogata tanker no zashoji abura ryushutsu gensho taisaku no kenkyu  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Negative pressure system, which keep the ullage of cargo oil tanks under negative pressure, was studied as the measures to mitigate oil outflow at stranding in 1990. This system for single hull tankers, however, was not adopted as the alternative of double hull tankers in the 30th MEPC. This report throws light upon negative pressure system again and shows this system for double hull tnankers is very effective to reduce the oil outflow. Firstly, the experiment of oil outflow from cargo oil tank was carried out, using two dimensional cargo oil tank model of scale 1/100. Conventional (non negative pressure) system and negative pressure system were compared with. Needless to say, negative pressure system retains more oil on the damaged cargo oil tank. Furthermore, it was proven that conventional system allows the inflow of water to double hull and retain less oil in it, but negative pressure system fills the double hull with oil by 100% and retains more oil in double hull. Secondary, mean oil outflow at stranding were calculated for the IMO reference tankers of 150,000 DWT and 283,000 DWT with/without negative pressure system, according to the IMO INTERIM GUIDELINE (1995). This guideline shows the calculation method of oil outflow at collision and strading, where flooded volume of the double hull at equilibrium is assumed to contain 50% oil and 50% sea water. However, in this report, the double hull is assumed to be filled with oil by 100% for negative pressure system at stranding. Negative pressure is assumed -0.5 kgf/cm{sup 2} as the allowable limit of hull strength. Calculated result shows that mean oil outflow reductions due to negative pressure system are 71% for 150,000DWT and 58% for 283,000DWT tanker at stranding. 4 refs., 10 figs.

Miyagawa, M. [Tokai Univ., Tokyo (Japan). School of Marine Science and Technology

1998-09-04

294

The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the motivational density, to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion

2013-09-06

295

The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour  

Science.gov (United States)

A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the "motivational density", to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion.

Thomas, P. J.

2013-09-01

296

Central limit theorems for law-invariant coherent risk measures  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

In this paper we study the asymptotic properties of the canonical plug-in estimates for law-invariant coherent risk measures. Under rather mild conditions not relying on the explicit representation of the risk measure under consideration, we first prove a central limit theorem for independent identically distributed data and then extend it to the case of weakly dependent ones. Finally, a number of illustrating examples is presented.

2010-01-01

297

Bank Risk Measurement: A Critical Evaluation at a European Bank  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This article assesses bank management’s perspective on the use and effectiveness of the risk measurement system under Basel II that setcapital requirements for banks. These requirements encouraged the use of risk measurement. Semi-structured interviews with various bank managers at Viking Bank (a fictitious name) provide the empirical data for this research. These interviews were conducted after the global financial crisis that led, among other events, to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brother...

Gunnar Wahlström

2013-01-01

298

A time measure of value in risk assessment  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Decisions in matters of technological risk acceptance involve risks and benefits on life and limb, comfort and pain. Evaluation of these in economic terms is difficult or absurd. It is rarely possible to compare alternative projects on the basis of life risk alone, although a measure of how equitably a risk is distributed to a group can be defined. Instead, evaluation of risk must be in comparison with benefits. All life prospects are not equal, and this must be taken into account as well. This interpersonal comparison is meaningful, based on group attributes. A panel of judges can, in principle, compare the prospects of individuals at risk and adjust equalization payments such that the net benefit is equal for all affected individuals. If the net benefit is positive, the project or alternative is justifiable

1981-12-15

299

The German contribution to the global forest policy. Analysis and evaluation of the engagement for biodiversity conservation and mitigation measures climatic change  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The booklet on the German contribution to the global forest policy covers with analysis and evaluation of the engagement for biodiversity conservation and mitigation measures climatic change. The analysis is based on expert interviews; the theoretical background is the conception on society by Niklas Lehmann. The evaluation includes the issues of allocation of public goods, the improvement of public participation, and improvement of financing resources.

2013-01-01

300

Minimising Mortality in Endangered Raptors Due to Power Lines: The Importance of Spatial Aggregation to Optimize the Application of Mitigation Measures  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Electrocution by power lines is one of the main causes of non-natural mortality in birds of prey. In an area in central Spain, we surveyed 6304 pylons from 333 power lines to determine electrocution rates, environmental and design factors that may influence electrocution and the efficacy of mitigation measures used to minimise electrocution cases. A total of 952 electrocuted raptors, representing 14 different species, were observed. Electrocuted raptors were concentrated in certain areas and ...

Guil, Francisco; Ferna?ndez-olalla, Mariana; Moreno-opo, Rube?n; Mosqueda, Ignacio; Go?mez, Mari?a Elena; Aranda, Antonio; Arredondo, A?ngel; Guzma?n, Jose?; Oria, Javier; Gonza?lez, Luis Mariano; Margalida, Antoni

2011-01-01

 
 
 
 
301

Fuel consumption and life cycle GHG emissions by China’s on-road trucks: Future trends through 2050 and evaluation of mitigation measures  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

We established a bottom-up model to deliver the future trends of fuel consumption and life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by China's on-road trucks. The mitigation measures of mileage utilization rate (MUR) improvement, fuel consumption rate (FCR) improvement, and penetration of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fueled trucks were evaluated. With no mitigation measures implemented, in the year 2050, the total fuel consumption and life cycle GHG emissions by China's on-road trucks were projected to reach 498 million toe and 2125 million tons, respectively, approximately 5.2 times the level in 2010. If the MUR of trucks in China is increased from the current status as those of the developed countries, a 13% reduction of total fuel consumption can be achieved after 2020. If the FCR of trucks is reduced by 10% in 2011, 2016, 2021, and 2026, a 30% reduction of total fuel consumption can be achieved after 2030. Moreover, if the share of LNG fueled trucks in all newly registered semi-trailer towing trucks and heavy-duty trucks is increased to 20% in 2030, an estimate of 7.9% and 10.9% of the total diesel consumption by trucks will be replaced by LNG in 2030 and 2050, respectively. - Highlights: ? We establish a bottom–up model to deliver the fuel consumption and GHG emissions by China's trucks. ? Without mitigation measures, the truck fuel consumption in 2050 will be 5.2 times the level in 2010. ? Fuel conservation and GHG reduction effects of three mitigation measures were evaluated.

2012-04-01

302

Effects of the mitigation measures discussed at international level on the space debris long-term evolution in low Earth orbit  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The effects, on the low earth orbit environment, of different mitigation measures discussed at international level are illustrated with simulations spanning more than 200 years in the future. The analysis took into account a detailed traffic model, explosions, collisions and the effects of air drag. The simulations carried out confirm the importance of spacecraft and rocket bodies passivation to avoid in-orbit explosions, but the de-orbiting of upper stages is needed as well to curb the debri...

Anselmo, Luciano; Pardini, Carmen; Rossi, Alessandro

1999-01-01

303

A tale of tails: An empirical analysis of loss distribution models for estimating operational risk capital  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Operational risk is being considered as an important risk component for financial institutions as evinced by the large sums of capital that are allocated to mitigate this risk. Therefore, risl measurement is of paramount concern for the purposes of capital allocation, hedging, and new product development for risk mitigation. We perform a comprehensive evaluation of commonly used methods and introduce new techniques to measure this risk with respect to various criteria. We find that our newly ...

Dutta, Kabir; Perry, Jason

2006-01-01

304

Risks evaluation and mitigation in the new energetic markets; Avaliacao e mitigacao de riscos nos novos mercados energeticos  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The central issue of debate was the need to align the energy sector's options and organization with changing global patterns of economic and social development, characterized by the increasing role played by the private sector, greater integration in the world economy, and new economic and social priorities such as efficiency, decentralization, deregulation, and a closer attention to environmental issues. The aim of the work was to evaluate the Brazilian electric power market risks and the their agents' relationship after the privatization advent.

Santos, Afonso Henriques Moreira [Agencia Nacional de Energia Eletrica (ANEEL), Brasilia, DF (Brazil); Vieira, Daniela Calazans; Krause, Gilson Galvao [Agencia Nacional do Petroleo, Brasilia, DF (Brazil)

1999-07-01

305

Risk Management  

Science.gov (United States)

This presentation focuses on the identification of risk management, risk management processes such as: quantification and prioritization; mitigation planning; implementation of risk reduction; and tracking process. It develops examples and answers questions about Risk Management.

Thomas, Lloyd

1998-01-01

306

Risk Management Plan  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The purpose of this Risk Management Plan (RMP) is to establish the concept and define the process to assure that National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Operations Office Environmental Management (NNSA/NV EM) programs and projects incorporate appropriate, efficient, cost-effective measures to mitigate the impact of program-and/or project-related risks. In addition, it describes the roles and responsibilities of program personnel in performing the risk management functions, and defines reporting and tracking requirements for risk-related information. The product of this risk analysis will be a risk analysis report listing the various risks with their classification, mitigation and handling strategies, impact on cost and schedule, and action items. The risk management process will identify potential risk sources; assess individual risks and impacts on performance, cost, and schedule; evaluate alternative approaches to mitigate high and moderate risks; develop action plans to handle individual risks; and interface risks with other programs and/or projects. Risk management and risk assessment will be consistent with DOE Orders 430.1 and 413.3 and their associated guidance documentation. The RMP will remain valid for the life cycle of the program and/or projects and will be under configuration control with revisions to be conducted as required and approved.

G. R. Stephenson

2001-12-01

307

Environmental benefits and risks of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI) for in situ remediation: Risk mitigation or trade-off?  

Science.gov (United States)

The use of nanoscaled zero-valent iron particles (nZVI) to remediate contaminated soil and groundwater has received increasing amounts of attention within the last decade, primarily due to its potential for broader application, higher reactivity, and cost-effectiveness compared to conventional zero-valent iron applications and other in situ methods. However, the potential environmental risks of nZVI in in situ field scale applications are largely unknown at the present and traditional environmental risk assessment approaches are not yet able to be completed. Therefore, it may not yet be fully clear how to consider the environmental benefits and risks of nZVI for in situ applications. This analysis therefore addresses the challenges of comprehensively considering and weighing the expected environmental benefits and potential risks of this emerging environmentally-beneficial nanotechnology, particularly relevant for environmental engineers, scientists, and decision makers. We find that most of the benefits of using nZVI are based on near-term considerations, and large data gaps currently exist within almost all aspects of environmental exposure and effect assessments. We also find that while a wide range of decision support tools and frameworks alternative to risk assessment are currently available, a thorough evaluation of these should be undertaken in the near future to assess their full relevancy for nZVI at specific sites. Due to the absence of data in environmental risk evaluations, we apply a 'best' and 'worst' case scenario evaluation as a first step to qualitatively evaluate the current state-of-knowledge regarding the potential environmental risks of nZVI. The result of this preliminary qualitative evaluation indicates that at present, there are no significant grounds on which to form the basis that nZVI currently poses a significant, apparent risk to the environment, although the majority of the most serious criteria (i.e. potential for persistency, bioaccumulation, toxicity) are generally unknown. We recommend that in cases where nZVI may be chosen as the 'best' treatment option, short and long-term environmental monitoring is actively employed at these sites. We furthermore recommend the continued development of responsible nZVI innovation and better facilitated information exchange between nZVI developers, nano-risk researchers, remediation industry, and decision makers.

Grieger, Khara D.; Fjordbøge, Annika; Hartmann, Nanna B.; Eriksson, Eva; Bjerg, Poul L.; Baun, Anders

2010-11-01

308

Nuclear Proliferation Risk Mitigation Approaches and Impacts in the Recycle of Used Nuclear Fuel in the USA  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

EnergySolutions and its team partners, which include the UK National Nuclear Laboratory (NNL), are one of four industry teams to have received an award from the US Department of Energy to carry out design studies in support of the US Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP). This team has developed a detailed scenario model for a future US nuclear fuel cycle based on a closed used nuclear fuel recycle as an alternative to the current once-though-and-store system. This scenario enables the uranium and plutonium in Light Water Reactor (LWR) used fuel from the current reactor fleet, and from a fleet of replacement LWRs, to be recycled as both Uranium Oxide and Mixed Oxide (MOX) fuel using reprocessing plants that conform to the requirements of GNEP. There is also a provision for 'burning' in thermal reactors certain long-lived transuranics (Np, Am, Cm) formed into targets. The residual fission product waste, without these long-term heat emitters, will be vitrified and consigned to the US National Geologic repository. Later in the scenario a fleet of Advanced Recycle Reactors (ARR), based on sodium cooled fast reactor technology, are introduced to enable full transmutation of all transuranics and thus attain the GNEP sustainability goal. The recycle scenario avoids the need for the Yucca Mountain repository to receive unprocessed used nuclear fuel and is effective at prolonging its lifetime and delaying the need for a second repository. This paper explains the process by which EnergySolutions selected the U-Pu and U-Pu-Np MOX products and the technological requirements for the recycle plants and describes materials flow analysis that has been carried for the US nuclear fuel cycle scenario using NNL's ORION scenario modelling program. One of the prime requisites of GNEP is to ensure that the risk of proliferation is minimized and the paper describes NNL's approach to objectively assessing the proliferation risk of the scenario relative to that of a conventional recycle scheme. (authors)

2009-03-01

309

Civil protection non-structural measures in risk management on debris fan: a case study in Villarpellice (Italy)  

Science.gov (United States)

In the Piemonte region (Italy) the ideal sequence of steps that are pursued to manage, reduce or mitigate debris flow risk is followed by the regional Authorities in land planning activities. Generally practitioners, engineers, geologists and land planners are involved in this process because they have necessarily to interact among each other. In this frame, the collection of field data, the execution of field surveys and the application of hazard and risk mapping techniques to identify the debris flow prone areas on the debris fan allow decision makers to find the most profitable countermeasures to reduce the hazards and the risk, as well as to monitor the processes on the debris fan. The availability of time allows the government officers to elaborate also complex procedures and methods, and to widely discuss solutions with politicians, the general public and economists. In emergency situations, right after debris flow occurrence, similar procedures are generally followed to allow the authorities to take the most urgent decisions for risk and hazard management. However the lack of time often forces officers and decision makers to choose solutions to problems and to hazard mitigation much more quickly. Moreover, due to the complexity of the situations that have to be faced (assessment of the residual risk, project of countermeasures), the coordination of engineers, geologists and practitioners plays one of the most important roles in residual risk management. Land planning efficiency is less when the complexity of situation is high. Therefore, in emergency situations, simple and flexible criteria are generally to be preferred to complex ones. The paper discuss the procedures that need to be followed in emergency situations for a good documentation and an effective monitoring of debris flows and for the design of mitigation measures. In particular the paper shows the way the civil protection works in Piemonte region, on the base of the so-called AUGUSTUS approach. The method, based on the separation of competencies and skills, aims at obtaining the highest efficiency in hazard and risk management, taking into account the factors that are jointly considered for risk reduction purposes. In the paper the activity of the civil protection agency during a 2008 debris flow event is described and discussed. The efficiency of the AUGUSTUS method is discussed in the frame of the coordination of the steps taken for the hazard and risk management and is compared to normal land planning procedures as far as time and efficiency are concerned.

Lazzari, A.; Conte, R.; Franzi, L.; Arattano, M.; Giordan, D.

2009-04-01

310

Planning of environmental mitigation for stress corrosion cracking of BWR core internals by means of noble metal chemical addition and of electrochemical corrosion potential measurement  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noble Metal Chemical Addition (NMCA) is planned to be applied in Tokai Daini Power Station (Tokai-2, BWR, 1,100MWe, commenced commercial operation on November in 1973) after the 25th outage for environmental mitigation for Stress Corrosion Cracking (SCC) of BWR core internals, PLR pipes and so on. In addition, it is also planned to measure Electrochemical Corrosion Potential (ECP) at some locations such as core internals in order to check the mitigation effect of NMCA. This paper describes the outline of this proactive project, as well as explaining challenges of Japanese Code on Fitness-for-Service (FFS Code) to reflect ECP evaluation results on SCC assessment. Orientation for solutions of these challenges of FFS Code is also discussed. (author)

2011-10-24

311

A generalized Fourier transform approach to risk measures  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

We introduce the formalism of generalized Fourier transforms in the context of risk management. We develop a general framework in which to efficiently compute the most popular risk measures, value-at-risk and expected shortfall (also known as conditional value-at-risk). The only ingredient required by our approach is the knowledge of the characteristic function describing the financial data in use. This allows us to extend risk analysis to those non-Gaussian models defined in the Fourier space, such as Lévy noise driven processes and stochastic volatility models. We test our analytical results on data sets coming from various financial indexes, finding that our predictions outperform those provided by the standard log-normal dynamics and are in remarkable agreement with those of the benchmark historical approach

2010-01-01

312

Radon in indoor air. Health risk, measurement methods and remedial measures  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Radon in indoor air is the main source of ionizing radiation in Norway. The booklet contains a presentation of radon sources, measurement methods, indoor radon concentrations, action levels, health risk and remedial measures

1996-01-01

313

Law Invariant Risk Measures Have the Fatou Property  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

S. Kusuoka [K 01, Theorem 4] gave an interesting dual characterizationof law invariant coherent risk measures, satisfying the Fatou property.The latter property was introduced by F. Delbaen [D 02]. In thepresent note we extend Kusuoka's characterization in two directions, thefirst one being rather standard, while the second one is somewhat surprising. Firstly we generalize — similarly as M. Fritelli and E. Rossaza Gianin [FG05] — from the notion of coherent risk me...

Jouini, Elye?s; Schachermayer, Walter; Touzi, Nizar

2006-01-01

314

Conditional risk measure modeling for Latvian insurance companies  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Due to the current economical situation on the Latvian market insurance companies are forced to consider other possibilities of income generation. One of such opportunities could be seen in cash flows from investment operations, while managing stocks' portfolios. The process of portfolio management is tightly connected with adequate risk management. In the current paper we have used copula approach for estimating portfolio’s conditional risk measures and though to contribute to the discussi...

2009-01-01

315

Stability of multistage stochastic programs incorporating polyhedral risk measures  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

We analyse stability aspects of linear multistage stochastic programs with polyhedral risk measures in the objective. In particular, we consider sensitivity of the optimal value with respect perturbations of the underlying stochastic input process. An existing stability result for multistage stochastic programs with expectation objective is carried forward to the case of polyhedral risk-averse objectives. Beside $L_r$-distances these results also involve ?ltration distances of the pertu...

Eichhorn, Andreas; Ro?misch, Werner

2006-01-01

316

Conditional risk measure modeling for Latvian insurance companies  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Due to the current economical situation on the Latvian market insurance companies are forced to consider other possibilities of income generation. One of such opportunities could be seen in cash flows from investment operations, while managing stocks' portfolios. The process of portfolio management is tightly connected with adequate risk management. In the current paper we have used copula approach for estimating portfolio’s conditional risk measures and though to contribute to the discussion about appropriate risk management in the insurance companies.

Irina Voronova

2009-12-01

317

Mid/Long-Term Action Plan to Mitigate SEE related Risks at the LHC (and required actions)  

CERN Multimedia

Modifications of the LHC schedule and the needed planning for future shutdowns requires an approach compatible with all operational scenarios in order to reduce the failures due to SEE around the machine. The R2E study group recommends a list of short-term actions, to plan, analyse and prepare mid/long-term activities and to assign additional resources. The aim is to maximize the use of available time slots and to allow for a coherent decision on mid/long-term actions to be taken in 2009/10. This decision might be required before measurements during early operation and ongoing radiation tests can allow for a complete analysis of the situation. It is important to note, that the detailed review and analysis of equipments and areas, as well as early measurements and continued radiation tests remain important requirements to be able to make the appropriate future decisions in the coming year(s). The aim of the following approach is to keep during the coming months as many options open as possible and have as many...

Brugger, M; Kramer, Daniel; Losito, R; Myers, S; Perrot, A L; Pojer, M; Røed, K; Roesler, S; Solfaroli, M; Vergara, A; Weisz, S; Wijnands, T; Zanetti, M

2009-01-01

318

Development of Technology Readiness Level (TRL) Metrics and Risk Measures  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This is an internal project milestone report to document the CCSI Element 7 team's progress on developing Technology Readiness Level (TRL) metrics and risk measures. In this report, we provide a brief overview of the current technology readiness assessment research, document the development of technology readiness levels (TRLs) specific to carbon capture technologies, describe the risk measures and uncertainty quantification approaches used in our research, and conclude by discussing the next steps that the CCSI Task 7 team aims to accomplish.

Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Anderson, K. K.; Sivaramakrishnan, Chandrika; Lansing, Carina

2012-10-01

319

Iterated risk measures for risk-sensitive Markov decision processes with discounted cost  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

We demonstrate a limitation of discounted expected utility, a standard approach for representing the preference to risk when future cost is discounted. Specifically, we provide an example of the preference of a decision maker that appears to be rational but cannot be represented with any discounted expected utility. A straightforward modification to discounted expected utility leads to inconsistent decision making over time. We will show that an iterated risk measure can rep...

Osogami, Takayuki

2012-01-01

320

Real-Time Earthquake Risk Mitigation Of Infrastructures Using Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Response Network  

Science.gov (United States)

The Istanbul EEW network consisting of 10 inland and 5 OBS strong motion stations located close to the Main Marmara Fault zone is operated by KOERI. Data transmission between the remote stations and the base station at KOERI is provided both with satellite and fiber optic cable systems. The continuous on-line data from these stations is used to provide real time warning for emerging potentially disastrous earthquakes. The data transmission time from the remote stations to the KOERI data center is a few milliseconds through fiber optic lines and less than a second via satellites. The early warning signal (consisting three alarm levels) is communicated to the appropriate servo shut-down systems of the receipent facilities, that automatically decide proper action based on the alarm level. Istanbul Gas Distribution Corporation (IGDAS) is one of the end users of the EEW signal. IGDAS, the primary natural gas provider in Istanbul, operates an extensive system 9,867 km of gas lines with 550 district regulators and 474,000 service boxes. State of-the-art protection systems automatically cut natural gas flow when breaks in the pipelines are detected. Since 2005, buildings in Istanbul using natural gas are required to install seismometers that automatically cut natural gas flow when certain thresholds are exceeded. IGDAS uses a sophisticated SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) system to monitor the state-of-health of its pipeline network. This system provides real-time information about quantities related to pipeline monitoring, including input-output pressure, drawing information, positions of station and RTU (remote terminal unit) gates, slum shut mechanism status at 581 district regulator sites. The SCADA system of IGDA? receives the EEW signal from KOERI and decide the proper actions according to the previously specified ground acceleration levels. Presently, KOERI sends EEW signal to the SCADA system of IGDAS Natural Gas Network of Istanbul. The EEW signal of KOERI is also transmitted to the serve shut down system of the Marmaray Rail Tube Tunnel and Commuter Rail Mass Transit System in Istanbul. The Marmaray system includes an undersea railway tunnel under the Bosphorus Strait. Several strong motion instruments are installed within the tunnel for taking measurements against strong ground shaking and early warning purposes. This system is integrated with the KOERI EEW System. KOERI sends the EEW signal to the command center of Marmaray. Having received the signal, the command center put into action the previously defined measurements. For example, the trains within the tunnel will be stopped at the nearest station, no access to the tunnel will be allowed to the trains approaching the tunnel, water protective caps will be closed to protect flood closing the connection between the onshore and offshore tunnels.

Zulfikar, Can; Pinar, Ali; Tunc, Suleyman; Erdik, Mustafa

2014-05-01

 
 
 
 
321

General acceptance sets, risk measures and optimal capital injections  

CERN Document Server

We consider financial positions belonging to the Banach lattice of bounded measurable functions on a given measurable space. We discuss risk measures generated by general acceptance sets allowing for capital injections to be invested in a pre-specified eligible asset with an everywhere positive payoff. Risk measures play a key role when defining required capital for a financial institution. We address the three critical questions: when is required capital a well-defined number for any financial position? When is required capital a continuous function of the financial position? Can the eligible asset be chosen in such a way that for every financial position the corresponding required capital is lower than if any other asset had been chosen? In contrast to most of the literature our discussion is not limited to convex or coherent acceptance sets and allows for eligible assets that are not necessarily bounded away from zero. This generality uncovers some unexpected phenomena and opens up the field for applicatio...

Farkas, Walter; Munari, Cosimo-Andrea

2012-01-01

322

Clarifying socio-economic impacts and mitigation measures related to potential changes in missions at the Rocky Flats Plant. Final report  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Research conducted to clarify the socioeconomic impacts on the Denver-Boulder area of potential changes in missions at the Rocky Flats Plant and the mitigation measures taken to contain these impacts are described. Two primary alternatives have been examined, including the relocation of certain activities associated with radioactive materials, as well as a total phase out of the plant over the next decade. These perspectives include an assessment of alternative uses for Rocky Flats by both governmental agencies and private sector developers. Major findings address location, employment, public involvement, private enterprises, community attitudes, employee relocation; land use; and environment

1982-01-01

323

Moderate deviations for importance sampling estimators of risk measures  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Importance sampling has become an important tool for the computation of tail-based risk measures. Since such quantities are often determined mainly by rare events standard Monte Carlo can be inefficient and importance sampling provides a way to speed up computations. This paper considers moderate deviations for the weighted empirical process, the process analogue of the weighted empirical measure, arising in importance sampling. The moderate deviation principle is establishe...

Nyquist, Pierre

2013-01-01

324

SUPERHEDGING AND DYNAMIC RISK MEASURES UNDER VOLATILITY UNCERTAINTY  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

We consider dynamic sublinear expectations (i.e., time-consistent coherent risk measures) whose scenario sets consist of singular measures corresponding to a general form of volatility uncertainty. We derive a cadlag nonlinear martingale which is also the value process of a superhedging problem. The superhedging strategy is obtained from a representation similar to the optional decomposition. Furthermore, we prove an optional sampling theorem for the nonlinear martingale and characterize it a...

Nutz, Marcel; Soner, Mete

2012-01-01

325

Guidance related to the efficacy of measures used to mitigate potential impacts of seismic sound on marine mammals  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Research has established that the effectiveness of mitigation of seismic sound operational techniques, described in the statement of Canadian practice, can vary with varying conditions in the marine environment. Among the six factors that should be taken into account, two are emphasized in this review. These are: the establishment of a safety zone, which affects the ability of observers to detect marine mammals; and factors which impact the effectiveness of passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) in detecting vocalizing marine mammals under the standard operating conditions of a seismic survey. Some recommendations were put forward for further research, including active acoustics research, and included: building a larger signals library for PAM; and carrying out autonomous PAM with underwater gliders. These suggestions were given with a view to mounting a collegial effort in the future that will advance our collective knowledge concerning the mitigation of the influence of seismic sound on marine mammals rather than entrusting this to any one particular government agency, regulatory body or offshore oil and gas company.

NONE

2010-09-15

326

Measuring the risk of an Iranian banking system using Value at Risk (VaR Model  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Measuring risk of financial institutes and banks plays an important role on managing them. Recent financial turmoil in United States banking system has motivated banking industry to monitor risk factors more closely. In this paper, we present an empirical study to measure the risk of some private banks in Iran called Bank Mellat using Value at Risk (VaR method. The proposed study collects the necessary information for the fiscal year of 2010 and analyses them using regression analysis. The study divides the financial data into two groups where the financial data of the first half of year is considered in the first group and the remaining information for the second half of year 2010 is considered in the second group. The implementation of VaR method indicates that financial risks increase during the time horizon. The study also uses linear regression method where independent variable is time, dependent variable is the financial risk, and the results confirm what we have found in the previous part of the survey.

Sudabeh Morshedian Rafiee

2012-10-01

327

Riscos e controles internos: uma metodologia de mensuração dos níveis de controle de riscos empresariais / Internal risks and controls: a methodology to measure business risk control levels  

Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

Full Text Available SciELO Brazil | Language: Portuguese Abstract in portuguese Este artigo apresenta uma metodologia de mensuração do nível de controle de riscos inerentes aos processos de qualquer entidade, a partir da construção de um índice de desempenho definido em função da capacidade dos controles mitigarem os riscos e da eficácia dos controles implantados. O modelo poss [...] ibilita ao gestor de riscos identificar para quais riscos são necessárias ações de melhoria de controle, quais possuem níveis de controles adequados e quais controles em excesso, contribuindo, assim, para a otimização da aplicação dos recursos disponíveis para a gestão de riscos e controles internos nas empresas. A metodologia foi aplicada a um estudo de caso e mostrou-se satisfatória do ponto de vista de avaliação e identificação dos níveis de controle. Abstract in english This paper presents a control measurement methodology applied in the processes performed by any entity. The methodology is derived from the analysis of the mitigation capabilities of the controls currently in use by the entity. The method enables risk managers to identify which risks require urgent [...] actions to improve the control levels, which risks are already adequately controlled and which ones are in a situation of excessive control. This kind of information can play an important role to improve the application of available internal risk and control management resources in companies. The methodology was applied to a case study and revealed to be a satisfactory tool to assess and identify control levels.

De Paulo, Wanderlei de Lima; Fernandes, Francisco Carlos; Rodrigues, Luciana Gavazzi Barragan; Eidit, Jorge.

328

Riscos e controles internos: uma metodologia de mensuração dos níveis de controle de riscos empresariais Internal risks and controls: a methodology to measure business risk control levels  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Este artigo apresenta uma metodologia de mensuração do nível de controle de riscos inerentes aos processos de qualquer entidade, a partir da construção de um índice de desempenho definido em função da capacidade dos controles mitigarem os riscos e da eficácia dos controles implantados. O modelo possibilita ao gestor de riscos identificar para quais riscos são necessárias ações de melhoria de controle, quais possuem níveis de controles adequados e quais controles em excesso, contribuindo, assim, para a otimização da aplicação dos recursos disponíveis para a gestão de riscos e controles internos nas empresas. A metodologia foi aplicada a um estudo de caso e mostrou-se satisfatória do ponto de vista de avaliação e identificação dos níveis de controle.This paper presents a control measurement methodology applied in the processes performed by any entity. The methodology is derived from the analysis of the mitigation capabilities of the controls currently in use by the entity. The method enables risk managers to identify which risks require urgent actions to improve the control levels, which risks are already adequately controlled and which ones are in a situation of excessive control. This kind of information can play an important role to improve the application of available internal risk and control management resources in companies. The methodology was applied to a case study and revealed to be a satisfactory tool to assess and identify control levels.

Wanderlei de Lima De Paulo

2007-04-01

329

VAR Methodology Used for Exchange Risk Measurement and Prevention  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In this article we discuss one of the modern risk measuring techniques Value-at-Risk (VaR. Currently central banks in major money centers, under the auspices of the BIS Basle Committee, adopt the VaR system to evaluate the market risk of their supervised banks. Banks regulators ask all commercial banks to report VaRs with their internal models. Value at risk (VaR is a powerful tool for assessing market risk, but it also imposes a challenge. Its power is its generality. Unlike market risk metrics such as the Greeks, duration and convexity, or beta, which are applicable to only certain asset categories or certain sources of market risk, VaR is general. It is based on the probability distribution for a portfolio’s market value. Value at Risk (VAR calculates the maximum loss expected (or worst case scenario on an investment, over a given time period and given a specified degree of confidence. There are three methods by which VaR can be calculated: the historical simulation, the variance-covariance method and the Monte Carlo simulation. The variance-covariance method is easiest because you need to estimate only two factors: average return and standard deviation. However, it assumes returns are well-behaved according to the symmetrical normal curve and that historical patterns will repeat into the future. The historical simulation improves on the accuracy of the VAR calculation, but requires more computational data; it also assumes that “past is prologue”. The Monte Carlo simulation is complex, but has the advantage of allowing users to tailor ideas about future patterns that depart from historical patterns.

Florentina Balu

2006-05-01

330

Improving Supply Chain Risk Management by Introducing Performance Measurement Systems  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Supply chain risk management (SCRM) is a topic that gains more and more interest from both the academic and practitioner’s perspective. The reason for this is the increased complexity in the global supply chain (SC) networks and many managers do not realize the risks they build in their SC by the continuous search to cut cost and decrease tied up capital. One problem with SCRM is that it is hard to measure the performance of it and if it is really beneficial to work with it. The objective f...

Ryding, Anna; Sahlin, Jonatan

2013-01-01

331

Reportable Creation: value, performance and risk measurement in financial reporting  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Reporting on value or reporting value-relevant information unavoidably implies that estimates of future cash flows should be made. Consequently, uncertainty becomes an important factor in (external) financial reporting. For a long time, uncertainty was dealt with by substituting relevant but uncertain recognition and measurement with less relevant but more certain principles. In the past few years, fair value becomes more and more a leading principle in financial reporting and risk disclosure...

2006-01-01

332

Developing safety performance functions incorporating reliability-based risk measures.  

Science.gov (United States)

Current geometric design guides provide deterministic standards where the safety margin of the design output is generally unknown and there is little knowledge of the safety implications of deviating from these standards. Several studies have advocated probabilistic geometric design where reliability analysis can be used to account for the uncertainty in the design parameters and to provide a risk measure of the implication of deviation from design standards. However, there is currently no link between measures of design reliability and the quantification of safety using collision frequency. The analysis presented in this paper attempts to bridge this gap by incorporating a reliability-based quantitative risk measure such as the probability of non-compliance (P(nc)) in safety performance functions (SPFs). Establishing this link will allow admitting reliability-based design into traditional benefit-cost analysis and should lead to a wider application of the reliability technique in road design. The present application is concerned with the design of horizontal curves, where the limit state function is defined in terms of the available (supply) and stopping (demand) sight distances. A comprehensive collision and geometric design database of two-lane rural highways is used to investigate the effect of the probability of non-compliance on safety. The reliability analysis was carried out using the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). Two Negative Binomial (NB) SPFs were developed to compare models with and without the reliability-based risk measures. It was found that models incorporating the P(nc) provided a better fit to the data set than the traditional (without risk) NB SPFs for total, injury and fatality (I+F) and property damage only (PDO) collisions. PMID:21819846

Ibrahim, Shewkar El-Bassiouni; Sayed, Tarek

2011-11-01

333

Full structural weld overlay application as a repair or mitigation measure for PWSCC susceptible alloy 82/182 DM welds in PWR plants  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In recent years, cracking due to Primary Water Stress Corrosion Cracking (PWSCC) have been observed in Alloy 82/182 dissimilar metal (DM) welds both in the United States and abroad. These DM welds are used to connect stainless steel piping to low alloy steel or carbon steel components in Pressurizer Water Reactor (PWR) plants. Full Structural weld overlay (FSWOL) was implemented in some cases as a repair technique to mitigate PWSCC at these welds. Such repair technique is an acceptable ASME Code repair method and has already been successfully used to repair Intergranular Stress Corrosion Cracking (IGSCC) at the stainless steel pipe welds in Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) plants in the United States for over twenty years. FSWOL is a repair technique that can be used to reinforce nozzle safe end regions and pipes in PWR plants susceptible to PWSCC with cracks present. Such technique can also be used as a mitigation technique at locations without any cracking but are susceptible to PWSCC. The technique involves the application of a specified thickness and length of PWSCC resistant weld material over the region of interest in a configuration that maintains structural integrity and meets the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Section XI Code margins with cracks present. The reinforcement material forms a structural barrier to PWSCC and produces a compressive residual stress condition at the inner portion of the pipe that mitigates future crack initiation and/or propagation due to PWSCC. In addition, full structural weld overlay improves inspectability of the nozzle safe end weld regions and facilitates volumetric examinations by minimizing discontinuities in the nozzle safe end weld regions. Purpose of this paper is to describe the methodology and criteria for applying FSWOL as either a repair or mitigation measure for PWSCC susceptible Alloy 82/182 DM welds in PWR plants. It is planned by KHNP to have the methodology and criteria be implemented for the Pressurizer nozzles of Kori Unit 1. To implement the Kori Unit 1 FSWOL three major tasks have to be performed together to make the project successful in addition to good planning, and training. Three major tasks are: 1) SWOL design and qualification 2) Welding process technique development and qualifications 3) Ultrasonic examination method and qualifications To illustrate these three major tasks Figures or photos of each task are included. Each task and associated Figures and photos will be presented in the conference

2009-04-01

334

Cost effectiveness of risk-production measures for nuclear plants  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In this paper the systemic or global approach to cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures is reviewed, and its advantages and limitations are discussed. The method is applied to the problem of the cost-effectiveness of increasing the Angra 3 NPP containment wall thickness from the present 60 cm to 180 cm thick in order to prevent damage to the reactor core in case of a direct commercial aircraft crash on it. It is concluded that this measure is not cost-effective if the global approach is considered

1985-01-01

335

Importance measures in reliability, risk, and optimization principles and applications  

CERN Multimedia

This unique treatment systematically interprets a spectrum of importance measures to provide a comprehensive overview of their applications in the areas of reliability, network, risk, mathematical programming, and optimization. Investigating the precise relationships among various importance measures, it describes how they are modelled and combined with other design tools to allow users to solve readily many real-world, large-scale decision-making problems.  Presenting the state-of-the-art in network analysis, multistate systems, and application in modern systems, this book offers a c

Kuo, Way

2012-01-01

336

Measuring Profitability Impacts of Information Technology: Use of Risk Adjusted Measures.  

Science.gov (United States)

Focuses on understanding how investments in information technology are reflected in the income statements and balance sheets of firms. Shows that the relationship between information technology investments and corporate profitability is much better explained by using risk-adjusted measures of corporate profitability than using the same measures

Singh, Anil; Harmon, Glynn

2003-01-01

337

Spatially quantitative models for vulnerability analyses and resilience measures in flood risk management: Case study Rafina, Greece  

Science.gov (United States)

We will address spatially quantitative models for vulnerability analyses in flood risk management in the catchment of Rafina, 25 km east of Athens, Greece; and potential measures to reduce damage costs. The evaluation of flood damage losses is relatively advanced. Nevertheless, major problems arise since there are no market prices for the evaluation process available. Moreover, there is particular gap in quantifying the damages and necessary expenditures for the implementation of mitigation measures with respect to flash floods. The key issue is to develop prototypes for assessing flood losses and the impact of mitigation measures on flood resilience by adjusting a vulnerability model and to further develop the method in a Mediterranean region influenced by both, mountain and coastal characteristics of land development. The objective of this study is to create a spatial and temporal analysis of the vulnerability factors based on a method combining spatially explicit loss data, data on the value of exposed elements at risk, and data on flood intensities. In this contribution, a methodology for the development of a flood damage assessment as a function of the process intensity and the degree of loss is presented. It is shown that (1) such relationships for defined object categories are dependent on site-specific and process-specific characteristics, but there is a correlation between process types that have similar characteristics; (2) existing semi-quantitative approaches of vulnerability assessment for elements at risk can be improved based on the proposed quantitative method; and (3) the concept of risk can be enhanced with respect to a standardised and comprehensive implementation by applying the vulnerability functions to be developed within the proposed research. Therefore, loss data were collected from responsible administrative bodies and analysed on an object level. The used model is based on a basin scale approach as well as data on elements at risk exposed, and data on flash flood intensities. The model is composed of three basic parts: (1) the quantification of flood hazard via hydrologic and hydraulic calculations and the evaluation of flood intensity for various flood scenarios, (2) the determination of exposure to flood hazard using a semi-quantitative method for the determination of the hazard level, which serves the purpose for the spatial evaluation of corresponding quantities and (3) to show potential resilience measures to protect individual households. The aim of the study is to provide a modified framework for quantitative assessment of vulnerability of building damages and to show potential resilience measures to protect individual households.

Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Chiari, Michael; Hübl, Johannes; Maris, Fotis; Thaler, Thomas; Fuchs, Sven

2013-04-01

338

Denitrification and N2O:N2 production in temperate grasslands: processes, measurements, modelling and mitigating negative impacts.  

Science.gov (United States)

In this review we explore the biotic transformations of nitrogenous compounds that occur during denitrification, and the factors that influence denitrifier populations and enzyme activities, and hence, affect the production of nitrous oxide (N2O) and dinitrogen (N2) in soils. Characteristics of the genes related to denitrification are also presented. Denitrification is discussed with particular emphasis on nitrogen (N) inputs and dynamics within grasslands, and their impacts on the key soil variables and processes regulating denitrification and related gaseous N2O and N2 emissions. Factors affecting denitrification include soil N, carbon (C), pH, temperature, oxygen supply and water content. We understand that the N2O:N2 production ratio responds to the changes in these factors. Increased soil N supply, decreased soil pH, C availability and water content generally increase N2O:N2 ratio. The review also covers approaches to identify and quantify denitrification, including acetylene inhibition, (15)N tracer and direct N2 quantification techniques. We also outline the importance of emerging molecular techniques to assess gene diversity and reveal enzymes that consume N2O during denitrification and the factors affecting their activities and consider a process-based approach that can be used to quantify the N2O:N2 product ratio and N2O emissions with known levels of uncertainty in soils. Finally, we explore strategies to reduce the N2O:N2 product ratio during denitrification to mitigate N2O emissions. Future research needs to focus on evaluating the N2O-reducing ability of the denitrifiers to accelerate the conversion of N2O to N2 and the reduction of N2O:N2 ratio during denitrification. PMID:23260378

Saggar, Surinder; Jha, N; Deslippe, J; Bolan, N S; Luo, J; Giltrap, D L; Kim, D-G; Zaman, M; Tillman, R W

2013-11-01

339

Overview: Documentation and monitoring of landslides and debris flows for mathematical modelling and design of mitigation measures – outcomes of the EGU 2011, NH session  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The papers summarised in this paper represent the scientific contributions of several scientists, coming from different countries, who work in the fields of monitoring, modelling, mapping and design of mitigation measures against mass movements. The authors participated at the 2011 EGU General Assembly presenting the contributions summarised in this paper. At the General Assembly they had the opportunity to illustrate their recent advancements, discuss each other's needs and set forth future research requirements. The scientific contributions presented here can be considered the result of the debates and the exchanges regarding their original work presented at the General Assembly that occurred either personally during the open session or during the review phase of their manuscripts.

L. Franzi

2013-08-01

340

On the pricing and measuring corporate credit risk, - A Comparative analysis on the structural and reduced form credit risk models  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Corporate credit risk in fixed income markets refers to risk that debt issuing company will default before the maturity of the debt or to decrease in the market value of debt due to decreasing credit quality. A number of quantitative credit risk models have been developed to measure probability of default and/or credit spreads of fixed income investments. These models can be roughly divided into two categories based on their approach to credit risk modelling; structural and reduced form mo...

Lammassaari, Pasi

2013-01-01

 
 
 
 
341

Mitigation diagnostics  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper reports that experience in the remediation of schools and other large buildings has shown the importance of the effects of both the location of geologic sources and HVAC-induced distribution of indoor radon. In general, elevated radon in areas of schools with evenly distributed HVAC pressures are correlated with maximum soil radon emanations. However, strong or unequal HVAC effects can redistribute indoor radon to areas away from the direct source. Effective remediation required a complete understanding of both contributions. In some schools, highest indoor radon levels were located near large return ducts and were attributed to proximity to negative HVAC pressure. Successful sub-slab depressurization systems were installed, however, in rooms with lower indoor but greatest sub-slab radon levels, closest to the source. This shows the inadequacy of using indoor radon levels alone as a basis for remediation. Wings of two other schools with radon problems have equivalent window fan coil units in rooms of equal size and no central HVAC system. Highest indoor radon levels correlated well with highest sub-slab radon levels due to the equivalent effects of the window units. Diagnostic tests in other schools have revealed: blockwall radon transport to upper floors; high blockwall radon adjacent to sub-slab sources; and elevated indoor radon over crawlspace being drawn upward by HVAC-induced negative pressure, determined from indoor to outdoor micromanometer measurements

1990-10-04

342

International perspectives on mitigating laboratory biorisks.  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The International Perspectives on Mitigating Laboratory Biorisks workshop, held at the Renaissance Polat Istanbul Hotel in Istanbul, Republic of Turkey, from October 25 to 27, 2010, sought to promote discussion between experts and stakeholders from around the world on issues related to the management of biological risk in laboratories. The event was organized by Sandia National Laboratories International Biological Threat Reduction program, on behalf of the US Department of State Biosecurity Engagement Program and the US Department of Defense Cooperative Biological Engagement Program. The workshop came about as a response to US Under Secretary of State Ellen O. Tauscher's statements in Geneva on December 9, 2009, during the Annual Meeting of the States Parties to the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC). Pursuant to those remarks, the workshop was intended to provide a forum for interested countries to share information on biorisk management training, standards, and needs. Over the course of the meeting's three days, participants discussed diverse topics such as the role of risk assessment in laboratory biorisk management, strategies for mitigating risk, measurement of performance and upkeep, international standards, training and building workforce competence, and the important role of government and regulation. The meeting concluded with affirmations of the utility of international cooperation in this sphere and recognition of positive prospects for the future. The workshop was organized as a series of short presentations by international experts on the field of biorisk management, followed by breakout sessions in which participants were divided into four groups and urged to discuss a particular topic with the aid of a facilitator and a set of guiding questions. Rapporteurs were present during the plenary session as well as breakout sessions and in particular were tasked with taking notes during discussions and reporting back to the assembled participants a brief summary of points discussed. The presentations and breakout sessions were divided into five topic areas: 'Challenges in Biorisk Management,' 'Risk Assessment and Mitigation Measures,' 'Biorisk Management System Performance,' 'Training,' and 'National Oversight and Regulations.' The topics and questions were chosen by the organizers through consultation with US Government sponsors. The Chattham House Rule on non-attribution was in effect during question and answer periods and breakout session discussions.

Pinard, William J.; Salazar, Carlos A.

2010-11-01

343

3(omega) Damage: Growth Mitigation  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The design of high power UV laser systems is limited to a large extent by the laser-initiated damage performance of transmissive fused silica optical components. The 3{omega} (i.e., the third harmonic of the primary laser frequency) damage growth mitigation LDRD effort focused on understanding and reducing the rapid growth of laser-initiated surface damage on fused silica optics. Laser-initiated damage can be discussed in terms of two key issues: damage initiated at some type of precursor and rapid damage growth of the damage due to subsequent laser pulses. The objective of the LDRD effort has been the elucidation of laser-induced damage processes in order to quantify and potentially reduce the risk of damage to fused silica surfaces. The emphasis of the first two years of this effort was the characterization and reduction of damage initiation. In spite of significant reductions in the density of damage sites on polished surfaces, statistically some amount of damage initiation should always be expected. The early effort therefore emphasized the development of testing techniques that quantified the statistical nature of damage initiation on optical surfaces. This work led to the development of an optics lifetime modeling strategy that has been adopted by the NIF project to address damage-risk issues. During FY99 interest shifted to the damage growth issue which was the focus of the final year of this project. The impact of the remaining damage sites on laser performance can be minimized if the damage sites did not continue to grow following subsequent illumination. The objectives of the final year of the LDRD effort were to apply a suite of state-of-the-art characterization tools to elucidate the nature of the initiated damage sites, and to identify a method that effectively mitigates further damage growth. Our specific goal is to understand the cause for the rapid growth of damage sites so that we can develop and apply an effective means to mitigate it. The prevailing hypothesis for the growth mechanism of laser-initiated damage involves a synergism of some means for absorption of 3{omega} light at the damage site and local field enhancement due to cracks. A proposed mechanism for damage growth involves an initial damage at a precursor resulting in the transformation of basically non-absorbing SiO{sub 2} to form an absorbing layer of d-SiOx. In this context d-SiOx implies SiO{sub 2} modified in terms of either the formation of other stoichiometries (eg., SiO, Si, or more generally SiOx with 0measurement of the field enhancement due to cracks. The FY00 effort continued the identification of the absorbing species and the characterization of damage morphology while emphasizing the development of growth mitigation techniques directed at removing both the absorbing species and the cracks. We applied a variety of analytical tools to characterize the damage morphology, including; photoluminescence (PL) spectroscopy, optical and photothermal microscopies, high resolution transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and electron-spin-resonance (ESR) spectroscopy, x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS), x-ray micro-tomography (XMT) and cathodo-luminescence (CL). The objective of the surface damage mitigation effort is to experimentally validate methods that could effectively stop the growth of 3{omega} laser-initiated damage. A specific goal is to obtain data and information on successful methods for fused silica optics, which would be sufficient to enable the down-selection to a single approach. Future effort could then be focused on developing a primary method for actual implementation on NIF. It is also the intent of this study to prioritize the remaining successful methods, so that there will be a back-up selection if the primary method fails to meet requirements. The mitigation methods selected for the study are chemical etching

Kozlowski, M; Demos, S; Wu, Z-L; Wong, J; Penetrante, B; Hrubesh, L

2001-02-22

344

Steps in preparing and biodiversity section of climate change action plan. Development and evolution of forestry and biodiversity mitigation measures  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Methodic for drawing up of national action plans on prevention of unfavorable consequences of climate change in forestry is described. Approaches to development and measures evolution in these fields on greenhouse effect reduce are considered. (author)

1997-10-10

345

Evaluating the RiskMetrics Methodology in Measuring Volatility and Value-at-Risk in Financial Markets  

CERN Multimedia

We analyze the performance of RiskMetrics, a widely used methodology for measuring market risk. Based on the assumption of normally distributed returns, the RiskMetrics model completely ignores the presence of fat tails in the distribution function, which is an important feature of financial data. Nevertheless, it was commonly found that RiskMetrics performs satisfactorily well, and therefore the technique has become widely used in the financial industry. We find, however, that the success of RiskMetrics is the artifact of the choice of the risk measure. First, the outstanding performance of volatility estimates is basically due to the choice of a very short (one-period ahead) forecasting horizon. Second, the satisfactory performance in obtaining Value-at-Risk by simply multiplying volatility with a constant factor is mainly due to the choice of the particular significance level.

Pafka, S; Pafka, Szilard; Kondor, Imre

2001-01-01

346

Possibilities of hydrogen removal phase III/3: Concluding evaluation of the potential of deliberate ignition as hydrogen mitigation measure for hypothetical severe accidents in pressurized water reactors  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The report deals with the method of ''Deliberate Ignition'', which was selected as the hydrogen mitigation measure with comparable fewest disadvantages. The method still includes some relevant in terms of safety-open questions, which were dealt with in the light of most recent research results (especially from the USA). The safety-relevance of the questions has been reduced further, but there was no final consens achieved among the experts. For a final release of this method some more investigations, especially experimental investigations, seem to be necessary. These were defined in detail. They include mainly the problem of the mode of hydrogen combustion in a multi-compartment-geometry (the interaction between combustion and distribution, effects of multiple ignition). When the results of those investigations are submitted, a new evaluation of the Deliberate Ignition may be performed, e.g. a consideration of the possible safety benefits compared to the status-quo is possible. Independent of this, there has to be the discussion whether counter-measures for the control of hypothetical severe accidents are reasonable and necessary. The total project SR 212/SR 365 is already now available as a basis for a later re-assessment of measures to control the hydrogen-problem during hypothetical severe accidents. (orig./HP)

1986-09-01

347

The Balloon Analog Insurance Task (BAIT): A Behavioral Measure of Protective Risk Management  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Prior methods used to assess individual differences related to risk have not focused on an important component of risk management: how willing individuals are to pay for or take actions to insure what they already have. It is not clear whether this type of protective risk management taps into the same individual differences as does risk taking propensity measured by existing risk taking tasks. We developed a novel task to assess protective risk management, the Balloon Analog Insurance Task (B...

Essex, Brian G.; Lejuez, Carl W.; Qian, Rebecca Y.; Bernstein, Katherine; Zald, David H.

2011-01-01

348

The Measure and Control of Enterprise Marketing Risk in the E-business Environment  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

In this article, through analyzing the change of enterprise marketing mode and the characters of marketing risk in the e-business environment, we establish the 3D embedded random measure model which suits for the e-business enterprise marketing risk, define the combination rules of the risk index system of this model, establish the theoretical base to measure the marketing risk for e-business enterprises, and analyze the warning and control of enterprise marketing risk under the model.

Lingbing Hu; Baoyin Zhang; Yu Wu

2009-01-01

349

A simple measure of risk aversion in the large and an application  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

We introduce a simple measure of risk aversion in the large. Besides satisfying properties which are conceptually analogous to the usual properties of the Arrow-Pratt measure, the index of risk aversion in the large leads to a stronger concept of decreasing risk aversion, which necessarily implies decreasing absolute risk aversion but not necessarily non-increasing relative risk aversion. The index also leads to a recursive procedure for refining the set of vN - M utility functions. We show t...

Chander, Parkash

2000-01-01

350

Measuring and handling risk : How different financial institutions face the same problem  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Title: Measuring and handling risk - How different financial institutions face the same problem Seminar date: 4th of June, 2010   Level: Bachelor thesis in Business Administration, Basic level 300, 15 ECTS Authors: Sarah Rörden and Kristofer Wille Supervisor: Angelina Sundström Subject terms: Risk variables, Risk measurement, Risk management, Modern Portfolio Theory, Diversification, Beta Target group: Everyone who has basic knowledge of financial theories and risk principles but lacks the...

2010-01-01

351

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy  

Science.gov (United States)

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

352

Multicriteria assessment in Mustionjoki river. Comparing different mitigation measures to enhance freshwater mussel and salmon populations; Monitavoitearviointi Mustionjoen kunnostuksessa. Simpukka- ja lohikantojen elvyttaemisvaihtoehtojen arviointi  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

In 2009 the Finnish Association for Nature Conservation and Fortum ltd. started a project for comparing the desirability and feasibility of different mitigation measures to enhance freshwater mussel and salmon populations. Multicriteria assessment (multi-criteria decision analysis) was used as an integral part of the project. It provided a systemic framework for gathering and presenting information, interviewing key stakeholders, discussing the results and deciding on further actions. Altogether 12 decision analysis interviews were carried out with the help of Web-HIPRE. In this publication we describe the realization of multicriteria assessment and its results. We also present estimates of the costs, benefits and feasibility of different measures and alternatives. Proposals for further study are also suggested. Multicriteria assessment helped the steering group of the project and the respondents to get a better overall understanding of the planning situation. It also helped to understand the scale of the impacts and the uncertainty related to them. As an outcome the analysis produced the desirability of alternatives from each participants' point of view. While not giving an absolute ranking to the alternatives, since it depends on the point of view, multicriteria assessment provided a common ground for the stakeholders for planning further recommendations. Our highly participatory approach fostered and improved the collaborative planning process in many ways (orig.)

Dufva, M.; Marttunen, M.

2010-11-15

353

Renewable Energies and Enhanced Energy Efficiencies: Mitigation/Adaptation Measures to Climate Change Impacts on Cyprus and in the Eastern Mediterranean  

Science.gov (United States)

The Eastern Mediterranean in general and Cyprus in particular are considered "hot spots" of future climate change. This will become manifest through an increase in the number and duration of drought events and extended hot-spells. The need to cope with the impacts of climate change will lead to enhanced requirements for cooling of private and public housing and growing demands for potable water derived from seawater desalination. This in turn will cause increasing pressures on electricity production and will result in additional strain on the energy sector in the region. For Cyprus, the current electricity production is entirely based on fossil-fuel fired power plants. However, the use of conventional energy sources is clearly an undesirable option. It enhances the economic burden on energy consumers and at the same time increases Cyprus' dependency on external providers of petroleum products. Moreover, it leads to growing emissions of carbon dioxide and thereby worsens Cyprus' already challenged greenhouse gas emission budget. While current emissions amount to about 9.9 Mill. t of CO2, the total allowance according to EU regulations lies at 5.5 Mill. t. The current building stock on Cyprus lacks basic measures for energy efficiency. This is particularly noteworthy with regard to insufficient insulation of buildings, which causes significant amounts of energy to be expanded for cooling. In light of these facts, an increased use of renewable energies and measures to enhance energy efficiencies in the built environment constitute important elements of a stringent and effective mitigation/adaptation strategy to climate change. The Eastern Mediterranean is among the most suitable location for the utilization of solar energy in Europe. A global direct normal irradiance of more than 1 800 kWh/m2 on Cyprus offers a renewable electricity potential of app. 20 to 23 TWh/yr when concentrated solar power (CSP) technology is employed. With regard to enhanced energy efficiency in buildings, new and innovative materials will have to be introduced. This includes advanced materials based on nanotechnology aimed to increase reflectivity and decrease heat absorption of external walls in order to reduce heat uptake by the building and thereby reduce cooling loads. This paper will give more detail on possible mitigation/adaptation strategies to climate change and will explore their possible synergistic potentials. While focusing on Cyprus, the conclusions will be readily applicable to neighboring countries in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Lange, Manfred

2010-05-01

354

Measuring injury risk factors: question reliability in a statewide sample  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Background—Recently (1996–98), Colorado added 15 questions pertaining to injury related risks and behaviors to the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (BRFSS). Questions addressed bicycle helmet use, traffic crashes, exposure to violence, suicidal behavior, and gun storage.

Koziol-mclain, J.; Brand, D.; Morgan, D.; Leff, M.; Lowenstein, S.

2000-01-01

355

Mitigation of Malicious Attacks on Networks  

CERN Document Server

Terrorist attacks on transportation networks have traumatized modern societies. With a single blast, it has become possible to paralyze airline traffic, electric power supply, ground transportation or Internet communication. How and at which cost can one restructure the network such that it will become more robust against a malicious attack? We introduce a unique measure for robustness and use it to devise a method to mitigate economically and efficiently this risk. We demonstrate its efficiency on the European electricity system and on the Internet as well as on complex networks models. We show that with small changes in the network structure (low cost) the robustness of diverse networks can be improved dramatically while their functionality remains unchanged. Our results are useful not only for improving significantly with low cost the robustness of existing infrastructures but also for designing economically robust network systems.

Schneider, Christian M; Andrade, Jose S; Havlin, Shlomo; Herrmann, Hans J; 10.1073/pnas.1009440108

2011-01-01

356

Radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident in the Soviet Union and measures taken to mitigate their impact  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

On the basis of factual material on the levels of radioactive contamination of the environment in various regions of the Soviet Union, a forecast is given of the radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident for the Soviet population. The theoretical variation with time of the principal radiation factors is compared with their actual variation in the year following the accident. The analysis of a large amount of data on actual external and internal radiation doses to the public confirms the effectiveness and timeliness of the large scale measures taken in evacuating the population from a 30 km zone, in monitoring the radioactivity of agricultural produce and in providing the population with uncontaminated foodstuffs. A review is made of organizational aspects of a national epidemiological research programme to assess the possible late health effects on the Soviet population of the radioactivity released from the Chernobyl accident. (author). 12 refs, 2 figs, 4 tabs

1987-10-02

357

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of seismic risk reduction options in oil industry  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

An integrated probabilistic methodology for cost-efficiency estimation of different sort of seismic risk management measures are introduced by adding Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) module to an integrated seismic risk assessment model. An oil refinery in Iran has been selected for case study and cost-efficiency of software and hardware mitigation measures are evaluated. The results have shown that: (1) software mitigation measures have more benefit than hardware ones, (2) considering indirect loss in CBA lead to more benefit-cost ratio and (3) although increase of discount ratio decreases the benefit-cost ratio, the arrangement of mitigation measures from benefit-cost viewpoint are constant. (authors)

2007-04-26

358

Measurement of biofilm thickness. An effective Legionella risk assessment tool  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The best way to prevent the risk of bacterial growth in water systems is to monitor and control the microorganisms (biofilm) attached to pipe walls. Three years of laboratory research led two Centre National de Recherche Scientifique (French National Center for Scientific Research) teams (UMR 6008 and UPR 15) to develop a tool designed to determine the average biofilm thickness. The average biofilm thickness measurements carried out on pilot plants fed with natural water were sufficiently accurate and sensitive to monitor the formation and development of biofilm in a water system and to determine the efficiency of the applied treatments. The implementation of appropriate treatments (type and dose of the treatment product) leads to a significant reduction in or even complete removal of the porous layer on the material surface. A reduction of the attached biomass, measured by the sensor, is connected to a decrease in the density of the bacterial attached to the material (viable flora in the plate count agar environment). (orig.)

Foret, Christophe [BKG France, Arnage (France); Martemianov, Serguei [Poitiers Univ. (FR). Lab. of Thermal Study (LET); Moscow Univ. (Russian Federation). Frumkin Inst. of Physical Chemistry and Electrochemistry; Hater, Wolfgang [BK Giulini GmbH, Duesseldorf (Germany); Merlet, Nicole; Chaussec, Guenole; Tribollet, Bernard

2010-02-15

359

Predicting (un)healthy behavior: A comparison of risk-taking propensity measures  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

We compare four different risk-taking propensity measures on their ability to describe and to predict actual risky behavior in the domain of health. The risk-taking propensity measures we compare are: (1) a general measure of risk-taking propensity derived from a one-item survey question (Dohmen et al., 2011), (2) a risk aversion index calculated from a set of incentivized monetary gambles (Holt and Laury, 2002), (3) a measure of risk taking derived from an incentive compatible behavioral tas...

Helena Szrek; Li-Wei Chao; Shandir Ramlagan; Karl Peltzer

2012-01-01

360

Development of the LERF performance measure for risk informed regulations  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Severe accident events that could cause a large amount of radiological offsite release would have to involve significant core damage and release to environment. The concept of core damage frequency (CDF) and large early release frequency (LERF) has been considered as a suitable metrics for making risk informed regulatory decisions. However, the terminology of 'larg' and 'early release' which have uncertain concept needs to be defined from the regulatory perspective considering the potential implication of severe accidents. This study includes a new quantitative definition of the LERF in the first place. Additionally it provides a correlated relationship between the safety goal, Quantitative Health Objectives (QHOs), for Individual Early Fatality and a LERF that can be used to estimate the safety goal for a reference nuclear power plant. The relationship is derived from the utilization of the site specific weather and population characteristics for the reference plant. It comes basically from a Level 2 PSA results such as the release category frequencies and source term characteristics. the correlation factor between early fatality and LERF may contribute to make the regulatory decision. The analysis results results are obtained according to the residential distance using the MACCS2 code. This methodology is based on an idea to utilize a value of early fatality. It may provide the reasonable estimates of the individual early fatality and large early lease frequency. They supply a gap for the existing PSA results which lack in the detailed offsite consequence analysis. And safety goals affect the allowable consequences and their permissible accident frequencies for the accident sequences which must be considered in the design and safety classification of equipment. In this study, safety goals for risk informed regulations are introduced and the definition of the relevant performance measure, LERF, is systematically developed. The developed LERF categories can be used for guiding the selection of events which must be considered in the design and regulations

2009-04-01

 
 
 
 
361

Characterization and mitigation of water vapor effects in the measurement of ozone by chemiluminescence with nitric oxide  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Laboratory experiments were conducted to investigate the effects of water vapor on the reaction of nitric oxide with ozone in a chemiluminescence instrument used for fast response and high sensitivity detection of atmospheric ozone. Water vapor was introduced into a constant level ozone standard and both ozone and water vapor signals were recorded at 10 Hz. The presence of water vapor was found to reduce, i.e. quench the ozone signal. A correction factor was determined to be 4.15 ± 0.14 × 10?3, which corresponds to a 4.15% increase in the measured ozone signal per 10 mmol mol?1 co-sampled water vapor. An ozone-inert water vapor permeable membrane (Nafion dryer was installed in the sampling line and was shown to remove the bulk of the water vapor mole fraction in the sample air. At water vapor mole fractions above 25 mmol mol?1, the Nafion dryer removed over 75% of the water vapor in the sample. This reduced the ozone signal correction from over 11% to less than 2.5%. The Nafion dryer was highly effective at reducing the fast fluctuations of the water vapor signal (more than 97% while leaving the ozone signal unaffected, which is a crucial improvement for minimizing the interference of water vapor fluxes on the ozone flux determination by the eddy covariance technique.

P. Boylan

2013-10-01

362

Follow-up durability measurements and mitigation-performance improvement tests in 38 Eastern Pennsylvania houses having indoor radon-reduction systems. Final report, Oct 89-Feb 90  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The report gives results of follow-up tests in 38 difficult-to-mitigate Pennsylvania houses where indoor radon reduction systems had been installed 2 to 4 years earlier. Objectives were to assess system durability, methods for improving performance, and methods for reducing installation and operating costs. The durability tests indicated that the 38 systems have not experienced any significant degradation in indoor radon levels or in system flows/suctions, except in 6 houses where system fans failed, and in houses where homeowners turned off the systems. Tests to improve performance indicated that nearly all of the elevated residual radon levels are due to re-entrainment back into the house of very-high-radon exhaust gas from the soil depressurization systems, and to radon release from well water. Tests to reduce system costs showed that premitigation sub-slab suction field measurements can help prevent installation of too many suction pipes when communication is good, but suggest a need for too many pipes when communication is poor. Soil depressurization fans could not be turned down to the extent expected in some systems that were over-designed. Between 6 and 42% of the exhausted air was withdrawn from the house

1991-01-01

363

Destructive Interactions Between Mitigation Strategies and the Causes of Unexpected Failures in Natural Hazard Mitigation Systems  

Science.gov (United States)

Large investments in the mitigation of natural hazards, using a variety of technology-based mitigation strategies, have proven to be surprisingly ineffective in some recent natural disasters. These failures reveal a need for a systematic classification of mitigation strategies; an understanding of the scientific uncertainties that affect the effectiveness of such strategies; and an understanding of how the different types of strategy within an overall mitigation system interact destructively to reduce the effectiveness of the overall mitigation system. We classify mitigation strategies into permanent, responsive and anticipatory. Permanent mitigation strategies such as flood and tsunami defenses or land use restrictions, are both costly and 'brittle': when they malfunction they can increase mortality. Such strategies critically depend on the accuracy of the estimates of expected hazard intensity in the hazard assessments that underpin their design. Responsive mitigation strategies such as tsunami and lahar warning systems rely on capacities to detect and quantify the hazard source events and to transmit warnings fast enough to enable at risk populations to decide and act effectively. Self-warning and voluntary evacuation is also usually a responsive mitigation strategy. Uncertainty in the nature and magnitude of the detected hazard source event is often the key scientific obstacle to responsive mitigation; public understanding of both the hazard and the warnings, to enable decision making, can also be a critical obstacle. Anticipatory mitigation strategies use interpretation of precursors to hazard source events and are used widely in mitigation of volcanic hazards. Their critical limitations are due to uncertainties in time, space and magnitude relationships between precursors and hazard events. Examples of destructive interaction between different mitigation strategies are provided by the Tohoku 2011 earthquake and tsunami; recent earthquakes that have impacted population centers with poor enforcement of building codes, unrealistic expectations of warning systems or failures to understand local seismic damage mechanisms; and the interaction of land use restriction strategies and responsive warning strategies around lahar-prone volcanoes. A more complete understanding of the interactions between these different types of mitigation strategy, especially the consequences for the expectations and behaviors of the populations at risk, requires models of decision-making under high levels of both uncertainty and danger. The Observation-Orientation-Decision-Action (OODA) loop model (Boyd, 1987) may be a particularly useful model. It emphasizes the importance of 'orientation' (the interpretation of observations and assessment of their significance for the observer and decision-maker), the feedback between decisions and subsequent observations and orientations, and the importance of developing mitigation strategies that are flexible and so able to respond to the occurrence of the unexpected. REFERENCE: Boyd, J.R. A Discourse on Winning and Losing [http://dnipogo.org/john-r-boyd/

Day, S. J.; Fearnley, C. J.

2013-12-01

364

Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) Summary Prevalence Report of Selected Risk Factors and Preventive Health Measures, 1997.  

Science.gov (United States)

Information related to the 1997 BRFSS summary prevalence report of selected risk factors and preventive health measures from the core and modules is attached. This report consists of four parts: An introduction that contains: An overview of the 1997 summa...

1998-01-01

365

Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) Summary Prevalence Report of Selected Risk Factors and Preventive Health Measures, 1999.  

Science.gov (United States)

Information related to the 1999 BRFSS summary prevalence report of selected risk factors and preventive health measures from the core and modules is attached. This report consists of four parts: An introduction that contains: An overview of the 1999 summa...

2000-01-01

366

Properties of a risk measure derived from the expected area in red  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This paper studies a new risk measure derived from the expected area in red introduced in Loisel (2005). Specifically, we derive various properties of a risk measure defined as the smallest initial capital needed to ensure that the expected time-integrated negative part of the risk process on a fixed time interval [0; T] (T can be infinite) is less than a given predetermined risk limit. We also investigate the optimal risk limit allocation: given a risk limit set at company level for the sum ...

Loisel, Ste?phane; Trufin, Julien

2013-01-01

367

Survey for the advertising effectiveness measurement of the website 'risk information navigator' and the risk message materials  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Risk communication activities are important for promoting mutual understanding between local communities and the Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute (hereinafter referred to as JNC). The Risk Communication Study Team of JNC Tokai Works has started practical studies to promote further mutual understanding with the local communities. Several communication tools such as poster panels, slide materials, videos, website contents and newsletters were developed as part of its risk communication activities. This paper describes the survey of the internet users in prefectures where nuclear power stations are located, for the advertising effectiveness measurement of nuclear risk information provided on the web site 'Risk Information Navigator' (http://ricotti.jnc.go.jp/risknavi/) and the risk message materials jointly produced by Tokai village's people and JNC. (author)

2005-01-01

368