WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk mitigation measures

  1. Social and ethical perspectives of landslide risk mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalsnes, Bjørn; Vangelsten, Bjørn V.

    2015-04-01

    Landslide risk may be mitigated by use of a wide range of measures. Mitigation and prevention options may include (1) structural measures to reduce the frequency, severity or exposure to the hazard, (2) non-structural measures, such as land-use planning and early warning systems, to reduce the hazard frequency and consequences, and (3) measures to pool and transfer the risks. In a given situation the appropriate system of mitigation measures may be a combination of various types of measures, both structural and non-structural. In the process of choosing mitigation measures for a given landslide risk situation, the role of the geoscientist is normally to propose possible mitigation measures on basis of the risk level and technical feasibility. Social and ethical perspectives are often neglected in this process. However, awareness of the need to consider social as well as ethical issues in the design and management of mitigating landslide risk is rising. There is a growing understanding that technical experts acting alone cannot determine what will be considered the appropriate set of mitigation and prevention measures. Issues such as environment versus development, questions of acceptable risk, who bears the risks and benefits, and who makes the decisions, also need to be addressed. Policymakers and stakeholders engaged in solving environmental risk problems are increasingly recognising that traditional expert-based decision-making processes are insufficient. This paper analyse the process of choosing appropriate mitigation measures to mitigate landslide risk from a social and ethical perspective, considering technical, cultural, economical, environmental and political elements. The paper focus on stakeholder involvement in the decision making process, and shows how making strategies for risk communication is a key for a successful process. The study is supported by case study examples from Norway and Italy. In the Italian case study, three different risk mitigation options was presented to the local community. The options were based on a thorough stakeholder involvement process ending up in three different views on how to deal with the landslide risk situation: i) protect lives and properties (hierarchical) ; ii) careful stewardship of the mountains (egalitarian); and iii) rational individual choice (individualist).

  2. CONTRACTUAL RISKS IN THE NEW ZEALAND CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY: ANALYSIS AND MITIGATION MEASURES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasper Mbachu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available While tendering for jobs, a contractor is expected to analyse the various risks in each prospective project and price them appropriately. Contingencies are included in the tender price to cater for the various risks based on their impacts on the project targets and profit margin. Currently in New Zealand (NZ, there is little or no information on the various contractual risks and their mitigation measures. This has led to contractors over compensating or under compensating for risks with costly consequences. This study aimed to establish priority contractual risks in the NZ construction industry, and their mitigation measures. The research was based on a questionnaire survey of consultants and contractors. Descriptive statistics and multi-attribute techniques were used in the data analysis. Results showed 21 risk factors which were segregated into 6 broad categories in diminishing levels of significance as follows: Site conditions, main contractor, pricing, subcontractor, external and client- related risks. Putting tags and conditions to risky price items in the tender bids, and transferring the risks onto other parties were analysed as the 2 most effective out of the 5 key risk mitigation measures identified. Being cautious of the priority risks and application of the identified effective risk mitigation measures could guide contractors and the project team to more appropriately budget for and respond to risks, thereby ensuring more satisfactory project outcomes.

  3. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL AND MEASURES FOR FLOOD RISK MITIGATION IN TECUCI CITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZAHARIA LILIANA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In the last half century, Tecuci City was hit several times by damaging floods, as it happened in 1972, 1973, 2003, 2004 and especially in 2007. These events led to the implementation of measures for flood risk mitigation. This paper highlights the flood potential in Tecuci City and reveals the measures that were or should be taken in order to mitigate the flood risk in this city. It is based on statistical analysis of hydrological data recorded on Brlad, Rate? and Tecucel rivers and of data obtained by field investigations. While in the 1970s 1980s the flood risk mitigation measures were mainly of structural type (Brlad Rivers embankment and channelization, Rate? channel achievement, after 2007, a greater attention was payed to managing Tecucel River and to non-structural measures.

  4. Screening risk areas for sediment and phosphorus losses to improve placement of mitigation measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villa, Ana; Djodjic, Faruk; Bergström, Lars; Kyllmar, Katarina

    2015-11-01

    Identification of vulnerable arable areas to phosphorus (P) losses is needed to effectively implement mitigation measures. Indicators for source (soil test P, STP), potential mobilization by erosion (soil dispersion), and transport (unit-stream power length-slope, LS) risks were used to screen the vulnerability to suspended solids (SS) and P losses in two contrasting catchments regarding topography, soil textural distribution, and STP. Soils in the first catchment ranged from loamy sand to clay loam, while clay soils were dominant in the second catchment. Long-term SS and total P losses were higher in the second catchment in spite of significantly lower topsoil STP. A higher proportion of areas in the second catchment were identified with higher risk due to the significantly higher risk of overland flow generation (LS) and a significantly higher mobilization risk in the soil dispersion laboratory tests. A simple screening method was presented to improve the placement of mitigation measures. PMID:26115755

  5. Flood Risk Mitigation Workshop

    OpenAIRE

    Lang, M; Consuegra, D.; Susella, J.F.

    2000-01-01

    In the framework of the International Conference on Mountainous Natural Hazard (IDNDR 1990-2000, Grenoble, April 12-14th 1999), a workshop on Flood Risk Mitigation had the objective to bring together about twenty experts, in order to draw a state of art and make proposals. The workshop focused on three topics : risk education and culture, flood mapping and hazard delineation, strategies for flood risk mitigation. The written contributions of the flood wokshop include the introductions made by...

  6. Sensitivity measures for optimal mitigation of risk and reduction of model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents a new set of reliability sensitivity measures. The purpose is to identify the optimal manner in which to mitigate risk to civil infrastructure, and reduce model uncertainty in order to improve risk estimates. Three measures are presented. One identifies the infrastructure components that should be prioritized for retrofit. Another measure identifies the infrastructure that should be prioritized for more refined modeling. The third measure identifies the models that should be prioritized in research to improve models, for example by gathering new data. The developments are presented in the context of a region with 622 buildings that are subjected to seismicity from several sources. A comprehensive seismic risk analysis of this region is conducted, with over 300 random variables, 30 model types, and 4000 model instances. All models are probabilistic and emphasis is placed on the explicit characterization of epistemic uncertainty. For the considered region, the buildings that should first be retrofitted are found to be pre-code unreinforced masonry buildings. Conversely, concrete shear wall buildings rank highest on the list of buildings that should be subjected to more detailed modeling. The ground shaking intensity model for shallow crustal earthquakes and the concrete shear wall structural response model rank highest on the list of models that should be prioritized by research to improve engineering analysis models. -- Highlights: Three new sensitivity measures are presented to guide the allocation of resources. The first measure prioritizes infrastructure for retrofit in order to mitigate risk. The second measure prioritizes probabilistic models for more detailed modeling. The third measure prioritizes model types for improvement by data gathering. The measures are showcased by a regional seismic risk analysis of 622 buildings

  7. Satellite Breakup Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leleux, Darrin P.; Smith, Jason T.

    2006-01-01

    Many satellite breakups occur as a result of an explosion of stored energy on-board spacecraft or rocket-bodies. These breakups generate a cloud of tens or possibly hundreds of thousands of debris fragments which may pose a transient elevated threat to spaceflight crews and vehicles. Satellite breakups pose a unique threat because the majority of the debris fragments are too small to be tracked from the ground. The United States Human Spaceflight Program is currently implementing a risk mitigation strategy that includes modeling breakup events, establishing action thresholds, and prescribing corresponding mitigation actions in response to satellite breakups.

  8. A methodological frame for assessing benzene induced leukemia risk mitigation due to policy measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The study relies on the development of a methodology for assessing the determinants that comprise the overall leukemia risk due to benzene exposure and how these are affected by outdoor and indoor air quality regulation. An integrated modeling environment was constructed comprising traffic emissions, dispersion models, human exposure models and a coupled internal dose/biology-based dose–response risk assessment model, in order to assess the benzene imposed leukemia risk, as much as the impact of traffic fleet renewal and smoking banning to these levels. Regarding traffic fleet renewal, several “what if” scenarios were tested. The detailed full-chain methodology was applied in a South-Eastern European urban setting in Greece and a limited version of the methodology in Helsinki. Non-smoking population runs an average risk equal to 4.1 · 10−5 compared to 23.4 · 10−5 for smokers. The estimated lifetime risk for the examined occupational groups was higher than the one estimated for the general public by 10–20%. Active smoking constitutes a dominant parameter for benzene-attributable leukemia risk, much stronger than any related activity, occupational or not. From the assessment of mitigation policies it was found that the associated leukemia risk in the optimum traffic fleet scenario could be reduced by up to 85% for non-smokers and up to 8% for smokers. On the contrary, smoking banning provided smaller gains for (7% for non-smokers, 1% for smokers), while for Helsinki, smoking policies were found to be more efficient than traffic fleet renewal. The methodology proposed above provides a general framework for assessing aggregated exposure and the consequent leukemia risk from benzene (incorporating mechanistic data), capturing exposure and internal dosimetry dynamics, translating changes in exposure determinants to actual changes in population risk, providing a valuable tool for risk management evaluation and consequently to policy support. - Highlights: ► A comprehensive exposure analysis is greatly facilitated by the thorough use of measurement data and modeling tools. ► Incorporation of internal dose metrics contributes to significant refinement of exposure assessment. ► Similar community policies have completely different effect with respect to different countries/cities

  9. CFD evaluation of hydrogen risk mitigation measures in a VVER-440/213 containment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heitsch, Matthias, E-mail: Matthias.Heitsch@ec.europa.e [Institute for Energy, Joint Research Centre, PO Box 2, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Huhtanen, Risto [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, PO Box 1000, FI-02044 VTT (Finland); Techy, Zsolt [VEIKI Institute for Electric Power Research Co., PO Box 80, H-1251 Budapest (Hungary); Fry, Chris [Serco, Winfrith Technology Centre, Dorchester, Dorset DT2 8DH (United Kingdom); Kostka, Pal [VEIKI Institute for Electric Power Research Co., PO Box 80, H-1251 Budapest (Hungary); Niemi, Jarto [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, PO Box 1000, FI-02044 VTT (Finland); Schramm, Berthold [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit, GRS mbH, Schwertnergasse 1, 50667 Koeln (Germany)

    2010-02-15

    In the PHARE project 'Hydrogen Management for the VVER440/213' (HU2002/000-632-04-01), CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) calculations using GASFLOW, FLUENT and CFX were performed for the Paks NPP (Nuclear Power Plant), modelling a defined severe accident scenario which involves the release of hydrogen. The purpose of this work is to demonstrate that CFD codes can be used to model gas movement inside a containment during a severe accident. With growing experience in performing such analyses, the results encourage the use of CFD in assessing the risk of losing containment integrity as a result of hydrogen deflagrations. As an effective mitigation measure in such a situation, the implementation of catalytic recombiners is planned in the Paks NPP. In order to support these plans both unmitigated and recombiner-mitigated simulations were performed. These are described and selected results are compared. The codes CFX and FLUENT needed refinement to their models of wall and bulk steam condensation in order to be able to fully simulate the severe accident under consideration. Several CFD codes were used in parallel to model the same accident scenario in order to reduce uncertainties in the results. Previously it was considered impractical to use CFD codes to simulate a full containment subject to a severe accident extending over many hours. This was because of the expected prohibitive computing times and missing physical capabilities of the codes. This work demonstrates that, because of developments in the capabilities of CFD codes and improvements in computer power, these calculations have now become feasible.

  10. Economic aspects of hydro geological risk mitigation measures management in Italy: the ReNDiS project experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spizzichino, D.; Campobasso, C.; Gallozzi, P. L.; Dessi', B.; Traversa, F.

    2009-04-01

    ReNDiS project is a useful tool for monitoring, analysis and management of information data on mitigation measures and restoration works of soil protection at national scale. The main scope of the project, and related monitoring activities, is to improve the knowledge about the use of national funds and efforts against floods and landslides risk and, as a consequence, to better address the preventive policies in future. Since 1999 after the disastrous mudflow event occurred in Sarno in 1998, which caused the loss of 160 human lives, an extraordinary effort was conducted by the Italian Government in order to promote preventive measures against the hydro geological risk over the entire Italian territory. The Italian Ministry for the Environment promoted several and annual soil protection programmes. The ReNDiS project (Repertory of mitigation measures for National Soil Protection) is carried out by ISPRA - Institute for Environmental protection and Research, with the aim of improving the knowledge about the results of preventive policies against floods and landslides in order to better address national funds as requested by the Minister itself. The repertory is composed by a main archive and two secondary interface, the first for direct data management (ReNDiS-ist) and the latter (ReNDiS-web) for the on-line access and public consultation. At present, ReNDiS database contains about 3000 records concerning those programmes, focused on restoration works but including also information on landslide typologies and processes. The monitoring project is developed taking into account all the information about each step of every mitigation measure from the initial funding phase until the end of the work. During present work, we have statistically analyzed the ReNDiS database in order to highlight the conformity between the characteristic and type of the hazard (identified in a specific area) and the corresponding mitigation measures adopted for risk reduction. Through specific queries, we have grouped engineering works in several categories that have been related to the characteristics and type of hazards Vs cost-benefit analysis and timing of each work. Implementing a statistical analysis of the ReNDiS database, it has been possible to attempt a first spatial and temporal comparison between zoning of risk and distribution of preventive measures with relative cost at national level. In synthesis, this study has shown that although the total amount of resources devoted to preventive measures are not enough to remove the risk over the entire territory, the response of Italian institutions is in general well calibrated on the characteristic and type of hazard, but still very complex. Further efforts are necessary in order to improve the knowledge on landslides and flood prone areas, also in the perspective of adaptation to climate changes and to better address the public investments where the hydro geological risk is more critical. The importance of this monitoring activities is mainly due to limited financial resources of the Italian public sector in soil protection. Data collection, monitoring activities and statistical analysis like the ones carried out in ReNDiS experience is one of the best way in order to optimise the allocation of financial resources for the mitigation of natural hazard and risk.

  11. Landslides risk mitigation along lifelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capparelli, G.; Versace, P.; Artese, G.; Costanzo, S.; Corsonello, P.; Di Massa, G.; Mendicino, G.; Maletta, D.; Leone, S.; Muto, F.; Senatore, A.; Troncone, A.; Conte, E.; Galletta, D.

    2012-04-01

    The paper describes an integrated, innovative and efficient solution to manage risk issues associated to landslides interfering with infrastructures. The research project was submitted for financial support in the framework of the Multi -regional Operational Programme 2007-13: Research and Competitiveness funded by the Ministry of Research (MIUR) and co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund. The project is aimed to developing and demonstrating an integrated system of monitoring, early warning and mitigation of landslides risk. The final goal is to timely identify potentially dangerous landslides, and to activate all needed impact mitigation measures, including the information delivery. The essential components of the system include monitoring arrays, telecommunication networks and scenario simulation models, assisted by a data acquisition and processing centre, and a traffic control centres. Upon integration, the system will be experimentally validated and demonstrated over ca. 200 km of three highway sections, crossing the regions of Campania, Basilicata, Calabria and Sicily. Progress in the state of art is represented by the developments in the field of environmental monitoring and in the mathematical modeling of landslides and by the development of services for traffic management. The approach to the problem corresponds to a "systemic logics" where each developed component foresees different interchangeable technological solutions to maximize the operational flexibility. The final system may be configured as a simple to complex structure, including different configurations to deal with different scenarios. Specifically, six different monitoring systems will be realized: three "point" systems, made up of a network of locally measuring sensors, and three "area" systems to remotely measure the displacements of large areas. Each network will be fully integrated and connected to a unique data transmission system. Standardized and shared procedures for the identification of risk scenarios will be developed, concerning the surveys to be carried out, the procedures for each type of on-site testing and guidelines and dynamic templates for presentations of results, such as highway risk maps e.g. The setting up of data acquisition and processing centre and traffic control centre are the core of the integrated system. The DAC (data acquisition center, newly designed) will acquire and process data varying in intensity, dimensions, characteristics and information content. The Traffic Control Center (TCC) is meant to integrate the scientific and the management aspects of hydrological risk monitoring and early warning. The overall system is expected to benefit of the development of new, advanced mathematical models on landslide triggers and propagation. Triggering models will be empirical or hydrological, represented by simple empirical relationships, obtained by linking the antecedent rainfall and the landslide time occurrence, and complete models identified through more complex expressions that take into account different components as the specific site conditions, the mechanical, hydraulic and physical properties of soils and slopes, the local seepage conditions and their contribution to soil strength. The industrial partners of the University of Calabria are Autostrade Tech, Strago and TD Group, with the Universities of Firenze and Catania acting research Partners.

  12. Mitigating Commercial Risks in Project Finance

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    1996-01-01

    In project finance, risks are allocated to the parties best able to manage them. However, the risk mitigation instruments incorporated in the project's contractual and financial arrangements need not be all-encompassing to provide the security investors require. Commitments may be limited in scope, amount, and duration. This Note provides a checklist of commercial risk mitigation instrume...

  13. Revenue Risk Mitigation Options for Toll Roads

    OpenAIRE

    M. Rouhani, Omid

    2015-01-01

    The major risk associated with the provision of toll facilities results from uncertain future demand/revenue generated from the facilities. In this paper, I examine various options for mitigating toll revenue risk and provide a set of recommendations as to how revenue risk mitigation should be pursued. In addition to conducting more careful traffic revenue studies and risk analyses, policy makers can provide more flexible tolling schedules, adopt advanced toll collection technology, and limit...

  14. Disaster risk mitigation – why human rights matter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Kälin

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Existing human rights obligations already require states totake measures to mitigate the risks of natural or man-madedisasters – including those due to climate change – and thusto prevent displacement.

  15. Disaster risk mitigation – why human rights matter

    OpenAIRE

    Walter Kälin; Claudine Haenni Dale

    2008-01-01

    Existing human rights obligations already require states totake measures to mitigate the risks of natural or man-madedisasters – including those due to climate change – and thusto prevent displacement.

  16. Urban Policies and Earthquake Risk Mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper aims at proposing some considerations about some recent experiences of research carried out on the theme of earthquake risk mitigation and combining policies and actions of mitigation with urban development strategies. The objective was to go beyond the classical methodological approach aiming at defining a 'technical' evaluation of the earthquake risk through a procedure which can correlate the three 'components' of danger, exposure and vulnerability. These researches experiment, in terms of methodology and application, with a new category of interpretation and strategy: the so-called Struttura Urbana Minima (Minimum urban structure).Actually, the introduction of the Struttura Urbana Minima establishes a different approach towards the theme of safety in the field of earthquake risk, since it leads to a wider viewpoint, combining the building aspect of the issue with the purely urban one, involving not only town planning, but also social and managerial implications.In this sense the constituent logic of these researches is strengthened by two fundamental issues:- The social awareness of earthquake;- The inclusion of mitigation policies in the ordinary strategies for town and territory management. Three main aspects of the first point, that is of the 'social awareness of earthquake', characterize this issue and demand to be considered within a prevention policy:- The central role of the risk as a social production,- The central role of the local community consent,- The central role of the local community capability to planTherefore, consent, considered not only as acceptance, but above all as participation in the elaboration and implementation of choices, plays a crucial role in the wider issue of prevention policies.As far as the second point is concerned, the inclusion of preventive mitigation policies in ordinary strategies for the town and territory management demands the identification of criteria of choice and priorities of intervention and, as a consequence, the opportunity to promote an approach to the theme of mitigation policies realized through strategic principles and systemic logics able to shift the problem from the building to the town. The critical aspects of this theme are tied to three main issues:- The sharing of the way of interpreting town planning,- The integration of multiple objectives in one intervention tool,- The measures which can be adopted for an effective prevention policy.The above-mentioned elements have inspired these researches experimented on Calabrian towns.In particular, in this paper the experience carried out on Reggio Calabria is proposed. Its cultural roots derive from the principles and criteria experimented in small Calabrian towns, but it modifies them according to the complexity of the urban settlement, introducing also some experimental concepts and methodological approaches

  17. Urban Policies and Earthquake Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarlo, Antonella

    2008-07-01

    The paper aims at proposing some considerations about some recent experiences of research carried out on the theme of earthquake risk mitigation and combining policies and actions of mitigation with urban development strategies. The objective was to go beyond the classical methodological approach aiming at defining a "technical" evaluation of the earthquake risk through a procedure which can correlate the three "components" of danger, exposure and vulnerability. These researches experiment, in terms of methodology and application, with a new category of interpretation and strategy: the so-called Struttura Urbana Minima (Minimum urban structure). Actually, the introduction of the Struttura Urbana Minima establishes a different approach towards the theme of safety in the field of earthquake risk, since it leads to a wider viewpoint, combining the building aspect of the issue with the purely urban one, involving not only town planning, but also social and managerial implications. In this sense the constituent logic of these researches is strengthened by two fundamental issues: - The social awareness of earthquake; - The inclusion of mitigation policies in the ordinary strategies for town and territory management. Three main aspects of the first point, that is of the "social awareness of earthquake", characterize this issue and demand to be considered within a prevention policy: - The central role of the risk as a social production, - The central role of the local community consent, - The central role of the local community capability to plan Therefore, consent, considered not only as acceptance, but above all as participation in the elaboration and implementation of choices, plays a crucial role in the wider issue of prevention policies. As far as the second point is concerned, the inclusion of preventive mitigation policies in ordinary strategies for the town and territory management demands the identification of criteria of choice and priorities of intervention and, as a consequence, the opportunity to promote an approach to the theme of mitigation policies realized through strategic principles and systemic logics able to shift the problem from the building to the town. The critical aspects of this theme are tied to three main issues: - The sharing of the way of interpreting town planning, - The integration of multiple objectives in one intervention tool, - The measures which can be adopted for an effective prevention policy. The above-mentioned elements have inspired these researches experimented on Calabrian towns. In particular, in this paper the experience carried out on Reggio Calabria is proposed. Its cultural roots derive from the principles and criteria experimented in small Calabrian towns, but it modifies them according to the complexity of the urban settlement, introducing also some experimental concepts and methodological approaches.

  18. Approved Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act of 2007 gave FDA the authority to require a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) from manufacturers to...

  19. Coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures of hydro-meteorological risks: the importance of establishing a link between emergency management and spatial planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prenger-Berninghoff, Kathrin; Cortes, V. Juliette; Aye, Zar Chi; Sprague, Teresa

    2013-04-01

    The management of natural hazards involves, as generally known, the four stages of the risk management cycle: Prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. Accordingly, the mitigation of disasters can be performed in terms of short-term and long-term purposes. Whereas emergency management or civil protection helps to strengthen a community's capacity to be better prepared for natural hazards and to better respond in case a disaster strikes, thus addressing the short-term perspective, spatial planning serves long-term planning goals and can therefore implement long-term prevention measures. A purposefully applied risk mitigation strategy requires coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures and thus an effective coordination of emergency management and spatial planning. Several actors are involved in risk management and should consequently be linked throughout the whole risk management cycle. However, these actors, partly because of a historically fragmented administrative system, are hardly connected to each other, with spatial planning only having a negligible role compared to other actors1, a problem to which Young (2002) referred to as the "problem of interplay". In contrast, information transfer and decision-taking happen at the same time and are not coordinated among different actors. This applies to the prevention and preparedness phase as well as to the recovery phase, which basically constitutes the prevention phase for the next disaster2. Since investments in both risk prevention and emergency preparedness and response are considered necessary, a better coordination of the two approaches is required. In this regard, Decision Support Systems (DSS) can be useful in order to provide support in the decision-making aspect of risk management. The research work currently undertaken examines the problem of interplay in the four case study areas of the Marie Curie ITN, CHANGES3. The link between different risk management actors will be explored by means of exploratory questionnaires and interviews with government agencies, local administrations, community and research organizations on each study site. First results provided will address the general role of spatial planning in risk management. Additionally, preliminary observations are made in regard to the coordination of emergency preparedness and long-term spatial planning activities. The observations consider that integration facilitates proactive strategies that aim at preventing disaster occurrence and promote interaction between involved parties. Finally, consideration is given to the potential use of a DSS tool to cover both aspects of spatial planning and emergency management in the risk management cycle.

  20. Mitigating systemic risk in OTC derivative markets.

    OpenAIRE

    Wellink, N.

    2010-01-01

    The financial crisis has demonstrated that turmoil in OTC derivative markets can exacerbate financial distress. One of the challenges policymakers currently face, is to mitigate the risks these markets pose to the financial system. Inducing a shift towards more central clearing is an important step in the right direction as it tempers counterparty risk and increases transparency. However, this will only be part of the solution as risk management systems of Central Counterparties (CCPs) are no...

  1. Emerging Radiation Health-Risk Mitigation Technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Past space missions beyond the confines of the Earth's protective magnetic field have been of short duration and protection from the effects of solar particle events was of primary concern. The extension of operational infrastructure beyond low-Earth orbit to enable routine access to more interesting regions of space will require protection from the hazards of the accumulated exposures of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR). There are significant challenges in providing protection from the long-duration exposure to GCR: the human risks to the exposures are highly uncertain and safety requirements places unreasonable demands in supplying sufficient shielding materials in the design. A vigorous approach to future radiation health-risk mitigation requires a triage of techniques (using biological and technical factors) and reduction of the uncertainty in radiation risk models. The present paper discusses the triage of factors for risk mitigation with associated materials issues and engineering design methods

  2. Structural master plan of flood mitigation measures

    OpenAIRE

    A Heidari

    2009-01-01

    Flood protection is one of the practical methods in damage reduction. Although it not possible to be completely protected from flood disaster but major part of damages can be reduced by mitigation plans. In this paper, the optimum flood mitigation master plan is determined by economic evaluation in trading off between the construction costs and expected value of damage reduction as the benefits. Size of the certain mitigation alternative is also be obtained by risk analysis ...

  3. Structural master plan of flood mitigation measures

    OpenAIRE

    A Heidari

    2009-01-01

    Flood protection is one of the practical methods in damage reduction. Although it not possible to be completely protected from flood disaster but major part of damages can be reduced by mitigation plans. In this paper, the optimum flood mitigation master plan is determined by economic evaluation in trading off between the construction costs and expected value of damage reduction as the benefits. Size of the certain mitigation alternative is also be obtained by risk analysis by accepting possi...

  4. Consequence of climate mitigation on the risk of hunger.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Tanaka, Akemi; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko

    2015-06-16

    Climate change and mitigation measures have three major impacts on food consumption and the risk of hunger: (1) changes in crop yields caused by climate change; (2) competition for land between food crops and energy crops driven by the use of bioenergy; and (3) costs associated with mitigation measures taken to meet an emissions reduction target that keeps the global average temperature increase to 2 C. In this study, we combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and we quantified the three impacts on risk of hunger through 2050 based on the uncertainty range associated with 12 climate models and one economic and demographic scenario. The strong mitigation measures aimed at attaining the 2 C target reduce the negative effects of climate change on yields but have large negative impacts on the risk of hunger due to mitigation costs in the low-income countries. We also found that in a strongly carbon-constrained world, the change in food consumption resulting from mitigation measures depends more strongly on the change in incomes than the change in food prices. PMID:25982947

  5. Risk evaluation mitigation strategies: the evolution of risk management policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Kristen; Toscani, Michael

    2013-04-01

    The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the primary regulatory responsibility to ensure that medications are safe and effective both prior to drug approval and while the medication is being actively marketed by manufacturers. The responsibility for safe medications prior to marketing was signed into law in 1938 under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act; however, a significant risk management evolution has taken place since 1938. Additional federal rules, entitled the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act, were established in 2007 and extended the government's oversight through the addition of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for certain drugs. REMS is a mandated strategy to manage a known or potentially serious risk associated with a medication or biological product. Reasons for this extension of oversight were driven primarily by the FDA's movement to ensure that patients and providers are better informed of drug therapies and their specific benefits and risks prior to initiation. This article provides an historical perspective of the evolution of medication risk management policy and includes a review of REMS programs, an assessment of the positive and negative aspects of REMS, and provides suggestions for planning and measuring outcomes. In particular, this publication presents an overview of the evolution of the REMS program and its implications. PMID:23113627

  6. INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR ENHANCING EARTHQUAKE RISK MITIGATION DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Temitope Egbelakin

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The increasing scale of losses from earthquake disasters has reinforced the need for property owners to become proactive in seismic risk reduction programs. However, despite advancement in seismic design methods and legislative frameworks, building owners are found unwilling or lack motivation to adopt adequate mitigation measures that will reduce their vulnerability to earthquake disasters. Various theories and empirical findings have been used to explain the adoption of protective behaviours including seismic mitigation decisions, but their application has been inadequate to enhance building owners’ protective decisions. A holistic framework that incorporates the motivational orientations of decision-making, coupled with the social, cultural, economic, regulatory, institutional and political realms of earthquake risk mitigation to enhance building owners’ decisions to voluntarily implement adequate mitigation measures, is proposed. This framework attempts to address any multi-disciplinary barriers that exist in earthquake disaster management, by ensuring that stakeholders involved in seismic mitigation decisions work together to foster seismic rehabilitation of EPBs, as well as illuminate strategies that will initiate, promote and sustain the adoption of long-term earthquake mitigation.

  7. Willingness of homeowners to mitigate climate risk through insurance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Botzen, W.J.W.; Aerts, J.C.J.H. [Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Van den Bergh, J.C.J.M. [ICREA, Department of Economics and Economic History, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Barcelona (Spain)

    2009-06-15

    Climate change is projected to increase flood risks in certain regions due to an increase in both precipitation and sea level rise. In addition, socio-economic scenarios project an increase in urbanization in flood prone areas, which results in a higher damage potential. The combined effect of climate and land use change on flood risks requires innovative adaptation policies to cope with rising risks. Increasingly, attention is paid to the role insurance can play in mitigating damage by providing incentives to policyholders to undertake damage reducing measures. The willingness of homeowners in the Netherlands to undertake measures that mitigate flood damage in exchange for benefits on hypothetical flood insurance policies is examined using surveys. The results indicate that many homeowners are willing to make investments in mitigation. In particular, approximately two-thirds are willing to invest in water barriers in exchange for a premium reduction and about a fifth are willing to replace floor types that are vulnerable to flooding with water resistant floor types. Furthermore, about a quarter are willing to move central heating installations to floors safe against flooding in favor of a reduction in the insurance premium. Estimates of the effectiveness of these mitigation measures to limit potential flood damage in the river delta indicate that prevented damage could be substantial, namely in the order of 1 billion euro or larger. Reductions in (absolute) flood risk due to mitigation are especially large under climate change. A probit model indicates that existing arrangements for compensating flood damage, risk awareness and perceptions, and geographical characteristics are important determinants in the decision to undertake mitigation. (author)

  8. Willingness of Homeowners to Mitigate Climate Risk through Insurance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Botzen, W.J.W.; Aerts, J.C.J.H. [Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1085, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); Van den Bergh, J.C.J.M. [Institute of Environmental Science and Technology and Department of Economics and Economic History, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Barcelona (Spain)

    2009-01-15

    Climate change is projected to increase flood risks in certain regions due to an increase in both precipitation and sea level rise. In addition, socio-economic scenarios project an increase in urbanization in flood prone areas, which results in a higher damage potential. The combined effect of climate and land use change on flood risks requires innovative adaptation policies to cope with rising risks. Increasingly, attention is paid to the role insurance can play in mitigating damage by providing incentives to policyholders to undertake damage reducing measures. The willingness of homeowners in the Netherlands to undertake measures that mitigate flood damage in exchange for benefits on hypothetical flood insurance policies is examined using surveys. The results indicate that many homeowners are willing to undertake investments in mitigation. In particular, approximately two-thirds are willing to invest in water barriers in exchange for a premium reduction and about a fifth are willing to replace floor types that are vulnerable to flooding with water resistant floor types. Furthermore, about a quarter is willing to move central heating installations to floors safe against flooding in favor of a reduction in the insurance premium. Estimates of the effectiveness of these mitigation measures to limit potential flood damage in the river delta indicate that prevented damage could be substantial, namely in the order of 1 billion euro or larger. Reductions in (absolute) flood risk due to mitigation are especially large under climate change. A probit model indicates that responsibilities for compensating flood damage, risk perceptions, and geographical characteristics are important determinants in the decision to undertake mitigation.

  9. 12 CFR 702.108 - Risk mitigation credit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk mitigation credit. 702.108 Section 702.108... CORRECTIVE ACTION Net Worth Classification § 702.108 Risk mitigation credit. (a) Who may apply. A credit union may apply for a risk mitigation credit if on any of the current or three preceding effective...

  10. A web-based tool for ranking landslide mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacasse, S.; Vaciago, G.; Choi, Y. J.; Kalsnes, B.

    2012-04-01

    As part of the research done in the European project SafeLand "Living with landslide risk in Europe: Assessment, effects of global change, and risk management strategies", a compendium of structural and non-structural mitigation measures for different landslide types in Europe was prepared, and the measures were assembled into a web-based "toolbox". Emphasis was placed on providing a rational and flexible framework applicable to existing and future mitigation measures. The purpose of web-based toolbox is to assist decision-making and to guide the user in the choice of the most appropriate mitigation measures. The mitigation measures were classified into three categories, describing whether the mitigation measures addressed the landslide hazard, the vulnerability or the elements at risk themselves. The measures considered include structural measures reducing hazard and non-structural mitigation measures, reducing either the hazard or the consequences (or vulnerability and exposure of elements at risk). The structural measures include surface protection and control of surface erosion; measures modifying the slope geometry and/or mass distribution; measures modifying surface water regime - surface drainage; measures mo¬difying groundwater regime - deep drainage; measured modifying the mechanical charac¬teristics of unstable mass; transfer of loads to more competent strata; retaining structures (to modify slope geometry and/or to transfer stress to compe¬tent layer); deviating the path of landslide debris; dissipating the energy of debris flows; and arresting and containing landslide debris or rock fall. The non-structural mitigation measures, reducing either the hazard or the consequences: early warning systems; restricting or discouraging construction activities; increasing resistance or coping capacity of elements at risk; relocation of elements at risk; sharing of risk through insurance. The measures are described in the toolbox with fact sheets providing a brief description, guidance on design, schematic details, practical examples and references for each mitigation measure. Each of the measures was given a score on its ability and applicability for different types of landslides and boundary conditions, and a decision support matrix was established. The web-based toolbox organizes the information in the compendium and provides an algorithm to rank the measures on the basis of the decision support matrix, and on the basis of the risk level estimated at the site. The toolbox includes a description of the case under study and offers a simplified option for estimating the hazard and risk levels of the slide at hand. The user selects the mitigation measures to be included in the assessment. The toolbox then ranks, with built-in assessment factors and weights and/or with user-defined ranking values and criteria, the mitigation measures included in the analysis. The toolbox includes data management, e.g. saving data half-way in an analysis, returning to an earlier case, looking up prepared examples or looking up information on mitigation measures. The toolbox also generates a report and has user-forum and help features. The presentation will give an overview of the mitigation measures considered and examples of the use of the toolbox, and will take the attendees through the application of the toolbox.

  11. Mitigation of Foreign Direct Investment Risk and Hedging

    OpenAIRE

    Jack E. Wahl, Udo Broll

    2010-01-01

    Instruments of risk mitigation play an important role in managing country risk within the foreign direct investment (FDI) decision. Our study assesses country risk by state-dependent preferences and introduces futures contracts as a tool of risk mitigation. We show that foreign direct investment related country risk assessments do not matter if the multinational firm enters currency futures markets. Besides currency risk multinationals cross-hedge country risk via the derivatives market. This...

  12. INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR ENHANCING EARTHQUAKE RISK MITIGATION DECISIONS

    OpenAIRE

    Temitope Egbelakin; Suzanne Wilkinson; Jason Ingham

    2015-01-01

    The increasing scale of losses from earthquake disasters has reinforced the need for property owners to become proactive in seismic risk reduction programs. However, despite advancement in seismic design methods and legislative frameworks, building owners are found unwilling or lack motivation to adopt adequate mitigation measures that will reduce their vulnerability to earthquake disasters. Various theories and empirical findings have been used to explain the adoption of protective behaviour...

  13. Mitigation of ineffective measures against radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reasons of low effectiveness of radon remedial measures have been studied on several unsuccessfully remediated houses. Based on the thorough analysis, factors responsible for failures are clarified. The possibilities of how to improve the effectiveness of installed measures are also discussed. Experience in this field is documented by several examples of additionally mitigated houses. After application of additional measures, indoor radon concentration in the studied houses decreased in average 5.3 times. Costs for additional mitigation were at least four times cheaper compared with costs required for installation of original measures. (authors)

  14. Mitigating Systemic Risks in Future Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Manzalini, Antonio

    2012-01-01

    This paper elaborates about the potential risk of systemic instabilities in future networks and proposes a methodology to mitigate it. The starting concept is modeling the network as a complex environment (e.g. ecosystem) of resources and associated functional controllers in a continuous and dynamic game of cooperation - competition. Methodology foresees defining and associating utility functions to these controllers and elaborating a global utility function (as a function of the controllers' utility functions) for the overall network. It is conjectured that the optimization of the global utility function ensures network stability and security evaluations. Paper concludes arguing that self-governance (with limited human intervention) is possible provided that proper local, global control rules are coded into these utility functions optimization processes.

  15. Structural master plan of flood mitigation measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Heidari

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood protection is one of the practical methods in damage reduction. Although it not possible to be completely protected from flood disaster but major part of damages can be reduced by mitigation plans. In this paper, the optimum flood mitigation master plan is determined by economic evaluation in trading off between the construction costs and expected value of damage reduction as the benefits. Size of the certain mitigation alternative is also be obtained by risk analysis by accepting possibility of flood overtopping. Different flood mitigation alternatives are investigated from various aspects in the Dez and Karun river floodplain areas as a case study in south west of IRAN. The results show that detention dam and flood diversion are the best alternatives of flood mitigation methods as well as enforcing the flood control purpose of upstream multipurpose reservoirs. Dyke and levees are not mostly justifiable because of negative impact on down stream by enhancing routed flood peak discharge magnitude and flood damages as well.

  16. Biotechnology System Facility: Risk Mitigation on Mir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonda, Steve R., III; Galloway, Steve R.

    2003-01-01

    NASA is working with its international partners to develop space vehicles and facilities that will give researchers the opportunity to conduct scientific investigations in space. As part of this activity, NASA's Biotechnology Cell Science Program (BCSP) at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) is developing a world-class biotechnology laboratory facility for the International Space Station (ISS). This report describes the BCSP, including the role of the BTS. We identify the purpose and objectives of the BTS and a detailed description of BTS facility design and operational concept, BTS facility and experiment-specific hardware, and scientific investigations conducted in the facility. We identify the objectives, methods, and results of risk mitigation investigations of the effects of microgravity and cosmic radiation on the BTS data acquisition and control system. These results may apply to many other space experiments that use commercial, terrestrial-based data acquisition technology. Another focal point is a description of the end-to-end process of integrating and operating biotechnology experiments on a variety of space vehicles. The identification of lessons learned that can be applied to future biotechnology experiments is an overall theme of the report. We include a brief summary of the science results, but this is not the focus of the report. The report provides some discussion on the successful 130-day tissue engineering experiment performed in BTS on Mir and describes a seminal gene array investigation that identified a set of unique genes that are activated in space.

  17. Impacts of Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Events on Electricity Generation and Possible Adaptation Measures – A GIS-based Approach for Corporate Risk Management and Enhanced Climate Mitigation Concepts in Germany

    OpenAIRE

    Sieber, Jeannette

    2013-01-01

    This thesis on the “Impacts of extreme hydro-meteorological events on electricity generation and possible adaptation measures – a GIS-based approach for corporate risk management and enhanced climate mitigation concepts in Germany” presents an identification of hydro-meteorological extreme events in Germany and their effects on electricity generating units, i.e. on conventional thermal and nuclear power plants as well as on installations of the renewable energies of hydropower, wind energy an...

  18. Influence of behavioral biases on the assessment of multi-hazard risks and the implementation of multi-hazard risks mitigation measures: case study of multi-hazard cyclone shelters in Tamil Nadu, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komendantova, Nadejda; Patt, Anthony

    2013-04-01

    In December 2004, a multiple hazards event devastated the Tamil Nadu province of India. The Sumatra -Andaman earthquake with a magnitude of Mw=9.1-9.3 caused the Indian Ocean tsunami with wave heights up to 30 m, and flooding that reached up to two kilometers inland in some locations. More than 7,790 persons were killed in the province of Tamil Nadu, with 206 in its capital Chennai. The time lag between the earthquake and the tsunami's arrival in India was over an hour, therefore, if a suitable early warning system existed, a proper means of communicating the warning and shelters existing for people would exist, than while this would not have prevented the destruction of infrastructure, several thousands of human lives would have been saved. India has over forty years of experience in the construction of cyclone shelters. With additional efforts and investment, these shelters could be adapted to other types of hazards such as tsunamis and flooding, as well as the construction of new multi-hazard cyclone shelters (MPCS). It would therefore be possible to mitigate one hazard such as cyclones by the construction of a network of shelters while at the same time adapting these shelters to also deal with, for example, tsunamis, with some additional investment. In this historical case, the failure to consider multiple hazards caused significant human losses. The current paper investigates the patterns of the national decision-making process with regards to multiple hazards mitigation measures and how the presence of behavioral and cognitive biases influenced the perceptions of the probabilities of multiple hazards and the choices made for their mitigation by the national decision-makers. Our methodology was based on the analysis of existing reports from national and international organizations as well as available scientific literature on behavioral economics and natural hazards. The results identified several biases in the national decision-making process when the construction of cyclone shelters was being undertaken. The availability heuristics caused a perception of low probability of tsunami following an earthquake, as the last large similar event happened over a hundred years ago. Another led to a situation when decisions were taken on the basis of experience and not statistical evidence, namely, experience showed that the so-called "Ring of Fire" generates underground earthquakes and tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean. This knowledge made decision-makers to neglect the numerical estimations about probability of underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean even though seismologists were warning about probability of a large underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean. The bounded rationality bias led to misperception of signals from the early warning center in the Pacific Ocean. The resulting limited concern resulted in risk mitigation measures that considered cyclone risks, but much less about tsunami. Under loss aversion considerations, the decision-makers perceived the losses connected with the necessary additional investment as being greater than benefits from mitigating a less probable hazard.

  19. Assessment of measures to mitigate concrete shrinkage

    OpenAIRE

    Nunes, Júlio; Camões, Aires

    2013-01-01

    Concrete can have high tendency to shrink over time and this can cause its cracking and thus jeopardize its durability and increase significantly maintenance, repair or rehabilitation costs. In this context, this study intends to evaluate measures to mitigate concrete shrinkage through the incorporation of different percentages of fly ash (FA), shrinkage reducing admixtures (SRA) or superabsorbent polymers (SAP). For this, one has developed an experimental campaign on mortar specimens that co...

  20. Phishing Techniques and Mitigating the Associated Security Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc A. Rader

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Organizations invest heavily in technicalcontrols for their Information Assurance (IA infrastructure.These technical controls mitigate and reduce the risk of damage caused by outsider attacks. Mostorganizations rely on training to mitigate and reduce risk of non-technical attacks such as socialengineering. Organizations lump IA training into small modules that personnel typically rush throughbecause the training programs lack enough depth and creativity to keep a trainee engaged. The key toretaining knowledge is making the information memorable. This paper describes common and emergingattack vectors and how to lower and mitigate the associated risks.

  1. Mitigation measures and programs in Hungary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Molnar, S. [Systemexpert Consulting Ltd., Budapest (Hungary)

    1996-12-31

    In Hungary there are four main governmental programs, which may result in a decrease of emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs): (1) National program of energy efficiency improvement and energy conservation, (2) Afforestation program, (3) Volatile organic compounds (VOC) emission reduction program, and (4) Program to reduce the use of ozone depleting substances. These ambitious programs were launched in the beginning of the 90`s, but they have been slowed down because of budgetary problems. The comprehensive action plan for mitigation of GHG emissions should be based on these ongoing programs. These programs should be expanded by further measures and programs in order to fulfill the requirements of the FCCC. In the next sections the results and prospects of the above mentioned programs will be summarized. Also the results of the mitigation study supported by the U.S. Country Studies Program are included.

  2. 13 CFR 123.21 - What is a mitigation measure?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... protecting real and personal property against disaster related damage. You may implement mitigation measures...-disaster mitigation for home disaster loans, and § 123.204 specifically addresses post-disaster mitigation for businesses. Sections 123.400 through 123.412 specifically address pre-disaster mitigation....

  3. Isla Hispaniola: A trans-boundary flood risk mitigation plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandimarte, Luigia; Brath, Armando; Castellarin, Attilio; Baldassarre, Giuliano Di

    It is sadly known that over the past decades Isla Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) has been exposed to the devastating passage of several hurricanes and tropical storms. Territories that are economically weak and extremely poor in terms of natural resources have been shaken by severe flood events that caused the loss of thousands of human lives, displacement of people and damage to the environment. On May 24th 2004, the flooding of the trans-boundary river Soliette killed over 1000 Haitian and Dominican people, wiping out villages and leaving behind desolation and poverty. After this catastrophic flood event, the General Direction for Development and Cooperation of the Italian Department of Foreign Affairs funded through the Istituto Italo-Latino Americano (IILA, www.iila.org) an international cooperation initiative (ICI), coordinated and directed by the University of Bologna. The ICI involved Haitian and Dominican institutions and was twofold: (a) institutional capacity building on flood risk management and mitigation measures and policies; (b) hydrological and hydraulic analysis of the May 2004 flood event aimed at formulating a suitable and affordable flood risk mitigation plan, consisting of structural and non-structural measures.

  4. Radon measurement and mitigation activity in Finland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radon prevention, measurement and mitigation activities have been increasing in Finland during the 2000's. Nowadays, many municipal authorities, especially those located in high-radon areas, require radon prevention measures. This has activated radon measurements. Owners of new houses having radon piping installed under the floor slab are the most active group to measure and reduce the found high-radon values. Their radon awareness is apparently better than on the average, and the existing piping makes it easier and cheaper to reduce the radon levels. Local campaigns involving invitation flyers mailed to the residents have been a cost-effective means to activate measurements of older houses. So far 116 611 dwellings in low-rise residential buildings have been measured. At least 15 % of the 16 860 dwellings found to exceed the reference level of 400 Bq m-3 had their indoor radon level reduced below that. (authors)

  5. Roadmap to risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) success

    OpenAIRE

    Balian, John D.; Wherry, Janice C.; Malhotra, Rachpal; Perentesis, Valerie

    2010-01-01

    Medical safety-related risk management is a rapidly evolving and increasingly important aspect of drug approval and market longevity. To effectively meet the challenges of this new era, we describe a risk management roadmap that proactively yet practically anticipates risk-management requirements, provides the foundation for enduring yet appropriately flexible risk-management practices, and leverages these techniques to efficiently and effectively utilize risk evaluation and mitigation strate...

  6. Use of Bisphenol A-containing baby bottles in Cameroon and Nigeria and possible risk management and mitigation measures: community as milestone for prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouokam, Guy Bertrand; Ajaezi, Godwin Chukwuebuka; Mantovani, Alberto; Orisakwe, Orish Ebere; Frazzoli, Chiara

    2014-05-15

    The plasticizer Bisphenol A (BPA) is banned in baby bottles in many industrialized countries due to safety concerns. We provide a pilot view on the potential BPA exposure of bottle-fed children in sub-Saharan Africa through an enquiry on availability, accessibility and affordability of plastic baby bottles, usage pattern, and risk perception. An observational survey was conducted in a randomized group of vending sites (34 pharmacies; 87 shops and markets), in three cities (Yaoundé, Foumbot, Bafoussam) in Cameroon (two regions), and in two cities (Lagos, Port Harcourt) in Nigeria (two states). Interviews in vending sites and group discussions were conducted with 248 mothers. Cameroon and Nigeria showed a largely comparable situation. Plastic baby bottles are largely imported from industrialized countries, where a label indicates the presence/absence of BPA. In pharmacies most plastic baby bottles are labeled as BPA-free, whereas most bottles sold in shops are not BPA-free. BPA-containing bottles are more accessible and affordable, due to sale in common shops and lower costs. The meaning of the label BPA-free is unknown to both vendors and customers: the BPA issue is also largely unknown to policy makers and media and no regulation exists on food contact materials. The wide availability of BPA-containing baby bottles, lack of information and usage patterns (e.g. temperature and duration of heating) suggest a likely widespread exposure of African infants. Possible usage recommendations to mitigate exposure are indicated. Risk communication to policy makers, sellers and citizens is paramount to raise awareness and to oppose possible dumping from countries where BPA-containing materials are banned. Our pilot study points out relevant global health issues such as the capacity building of African communities on informed choices and usage of baby products, and the exploitation of international knowledge by African scientists and risk managers. PMID:24602914

  7. Public perception of flood risks, flood forecasting and mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Brilly, M.; Polic, M.

    2005-01-01

    A multidisciplinary and integrated approach to the flood mitigation decision making process should provide the best response of society in a flood hazard situation including preparation works and post hazard mitigation. In Slovenia, there is a great lack of data on social aspects and public response to flood mitigation measures and information management. In this paper, two studies of flood perception in the Slovenian town Celje are represented. During its history, Celje was often exposed to ...

  8. Public perception of flood risks, flood forecasting and mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Brilly, M.; Polic, M.

    2005-01-01

    A multidisciplinary and integrated approach to the flood mitigation decision making process should provide the best response of society in a flood hazard situation including preparation works and post hazard mitigation. In Slovenia, there is a great lack of data on social aspects and public response to flood mitigation measures and information management. In this paper, two studies of flood perception in the Slovenian town Celje are represented. During its history, Celje was...

  9. Roadmap to risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balian, John D; Wherry, Janice C; Malhotra, Rachpal; Perentesis, Valerie

    2010-10-01

    Medical safety-related risk management is a rapidly evolving and increasingly important aspect of drug approval and market longevity. To effectively meet the challenges of this new era, we describe a risk management roadmap that proactively yet practically anticipates risk-management requirements, provides the foundation for enduring yet appropriately flexible risk-management practices, and leverages these techniques to efficiently and effectively utilize risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS)/risk minimization programs as market access enablers. This fully integrated risk-management paradigm creates exciting opportunities for newer tools, techniques, and approaches to more successfully optimize product development, approval, and commercialization, with patients as the ultimate beneficiaries. PMID:25083193

  10. Optimising import risk mitigation: anticipating the unintended consequences and competing risks of informal trade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hueston, W; Travis, D; van Klink, E

    2011-04-01

    The effectiveness of risk mitigation may be compromised by informal trade, including illegal activities, parallel markets and extra-legal activities. While no regulatory system is 100% effective in eliminating the risk of disease transmission through animal and animal product trade, extreme risk aversion in formal import health regulations may increase informal trade, with the unintended consequence of creating additional risks outside regulatory purview. Optimal risk mitigation on a national scale requires scientifically sound yet flexible mitigation strategies that can address the competing risks of formal and informal trade. More robust risk analysis and creative engagement of nontraditional partners provide avenues for addressing informal trade. PMID:21809773

  11. Basel III's ability to mitigate systemic risk

    OpenAIRE

    Stefan Schwerter

    2011-01-01

    Purpose – The financial crisis 2007-2009 calls for a regulatory response. A crucial element of this task is the treatment of systemic risk. Basel III gains centre stage in this process. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to evaluate Basel III, examining its ability to reduce systemic risk. Design/methodology/approach – The paper highlights the importance of reducing systemic risk to achieve the goal of overall financial stability. By first focusing on the theoretical foundations of systemic r...

  12. Risk Mitigation in Triadic Network Configurations within a Servitized Context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raja, Jawwad; Roehrich, Jens

    that behavior-based controls, combined with information, are a key contributory factor in mitigating risk within triadic network structures. Research limitations/implications: This research is limited to one in-depth case study, within the truck industry. Whilst this represents an appropriate approach......Purpose: This paper examines risk mitigation for a servitizing organisation and its supply network configuration. This is an area of research that has not been adequately explored to date within a servitization context. In particular, the paper examines triadic configurations using an agency...... given the exploratory nature of the study, there is a need for further empirical research across different industries. Originality/value: Theoretical insights are gleaned through the application of agency theory as a lens to understand risk mitigation within supply networks within the context of...

  13. The Mitigation of Supply Chain Risk.

    OpenAIRE

    Wilding, Richard D.

    2007-01-01

    Supply Chain Risk Management is receiving increased attention in recent years. With events such as 9/11, the foot and mouth outbreak in Europe and hurricane Katrina all impacting on organisations and the global supply chains they are part of. Trends including the rapid growth in global sourcing and offshore manufacturing; the continued move to reduce the supplier base; industry consolidation and the centralisation of distribution all change the risk profile of supply chains ...

  14. A review of post-accident mitigative measures affecting transport and isolation of radionuclides released from the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper summarizes the results of eight years of mitigative measures to radioactive contamination within the 30 kilometer exclusion zone surrounding the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. We hope to demonstrate that effectiveness of mitigative measures depends not only on proper application of technology but also on selection of projects offering significant risk reduction potential. In a limited national economy, environmental mitigation projects must maximize risk reduction and cost effectiveness or risk losing funding to more pressing social issues

  15. Mitigating Epidemics through Mobile Micro-measures

    CERN Document Server

    Kafsi, Mohamed; Maystre, Lucas; Yartseva, Lyudmila; Grossglauser, Matthias; Thiran, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    Epidemics of infectious diseases are among the largest threats to the quality of life and the economic and social well-being of developing countries. The arsenal of measures against such epidemics is well-established, but costly and insufficient to mitigate their impact. In this paper, we argue that mobile technology adds a powerful weapon to this arsenal, because (a) mobile devices endow us with the unprecedented ability to measure and model the detailed behavioral patterns of the affected population, and (b) they enable the delivery of personalized behavioral recommendations to individuals in real time. We combine these two ideas and propose several strategies to generate such recommendations from mobility patterns. The goal of each strategy is a large reduction in infections, with a small impact on the normal course of daily life. We evaluate these strategies over the Orange D4D dataset and show the benefit of mobile micro-measures, even if only a fraction of the population participates. These preliminary ...

  16. A review of risk perceptions and other factors that influence flood mitigation behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bubeck, P; Botzen, W J W; Aerts, J C J H

    2012-09-01

    In flood risk management, a shift can be observed toward more integrated approaches that increasingly address the role of private households in implementing flood damage mitigation measures. This has resulted in a growing number of studies into the supposed positive relationship between individual flood risk perceptions and mitigation behavior. Our literature review shows, however, that, actually, this relationship is hardly observed in empirical studies. Two arguments are provided as an explanation. First, on the basis of protection motivation theory, a theoretical framework is discussed suggesting that individuals' high-risk perceptions need to be accompanied by coping appraisal to result in a protective response. Second, it is pointed out that possible feedback from already-adopted mitigation measures on risk perceptions has hardly been considered by current studies. In addition, we also provide a review of factors that drive precautionary behavior other than risk perceptions. It is found that factors such as coping appraisal are consistently related to mitigation behavior. We conclude, therefore, that the current focus on risk perceptions as a means to explain and promote private flood mitigation behavior is not supported on either theoretical or empirical grounds. PMID:22394258

  17. Mitigating Environmental Risk Through Environmental Management Accounting?

    OpenAIRE

    Naufil Naseer

    2005-01-01

    Environmental accounting system is relatively a new field for environmental reporting and performance evaluation of a firm, particularly in terms of social costs that the organization incur on the society. These costs represent an organization`s impacts on the environment and society, which may not be covered under normal accounting practices. The study with the help of an example tries to answer how environmental risk, an important aspect of environmental management can be addressed in envir...

  18. Heat exchanger fouling: Prediction, measurement, and mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The US Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Industrial Programs (OIP) sponsors the development of innovative heat exchange systems. Fouling is a major and persistent cost associated with most industrial heat exchangers and nationally wastes an estimated 2.9 Quads per year. To predict and control fouling, three OIP projects are currently exploring heat exchanger fouling in specific industrial applications. A fouling probe has been developed to determine empirically the fouling potential of an industrial gas stream and to derive the fouling thermal resistance. The probe is a hollow metal cylinder capable of measuring the average heat flux along the length of the tube. The local heat flux is also measured by a heat flux meter embedded in the probe wall. The fouling probe has been successfully tested in the laboratory at flue gas temperatures up to 2200 F and a local heat flux up to 41,000 BTU/hr sq ft. The probe has been field tested at a coal-fired boiler plant. Future tests at a municipal waste incinerator are planned. Two other projects study enhanced heat exchanger tubes, specifically the effect of enhanced surface geometries on the tube bundle performance. Both projects include fouling in a liquid heat transfer fluid. Identifying and quantifying the factors affecting fouling in these enhanced heat transfer tubes will lead to techniques to mitigate fouling.

  19. MITIGATING INNOVATION RISKS CONCERNING INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY INSTRUMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea DUMITRESCU

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available As protection of innovation is possible using a variety of intellectual property instruments, the current paper aims at emphasizing the vulnerabilities of these instruments in order to facilitate the right choice in terms of protection, exploitation and dissemination of innovation. Based on a review of the intellectual property instruments and their related risk factors, the study identifies and formulates specific proactive strategies which arise from the fact that an instrument alone does not allow for effective protection, exploitation and dissemination and oftentimes the owners of innovation should combine traditional and alternative instruments. Therefore, the results of this analysis represent a helpful tool for managers in the decisional process.

  20. Planning Tools For Seismic Risk Mitigation. Rules And Applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recently, Italian urban planning research in the field of seismic risk mitigation are renewing. In particular, it promotes strategies that integrate urban rehabilitation and aseismic objectives, and also politicizes that are directed to revitalizes urban systems, coupling physical renewal and socio-economic development.In Italy the first law concerning planning for seismic mitigation dates back 1974, the law n. 64 ''Regulation for buildings with particular rules for the seismic areas'' where the rules for buildings in seismic areas concerning also the local hazard. This law, in fact, forced the municipalities to acquire, during the formation of the plans, a preventive opinion of compatibility between planning conditions and geomorphology conditions of the territory. From this date the conviction that the seismic risk must be considered inside the territorial planning especially in terms of strategies of mitigation has been strengthened.The town planners have started to take an interest in seismic risk in the [80]s when the Irpinia's earthquake took place. The researches developed after this earthquake have established that the principal cause of the collapse of buildings are due to from the wrong location of urban settlements (on slopes or crowns) After Irpinia's earthquake the first researches on seismic risk mitigation, in particular on the aspects related to the hazards and to the urban vulnerability were made

  1. Planning Tools For Seismic Risk Mitigation. Rules And Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Paoli, Rosa Grazia

    2008-07-01

    Recently, Italian urban planning research in the field of seismic risk mitigation are renewing. In particular, it promotes strategies that integrate urban rehabilitation and aseismic objectives, and also politicizes that are directed to revitalizes urban systems, coupling physical renewal and socio-economic development. In Italy the first law concerning planning for seismic mitigation dates back 1974, the law n. 64 "Regulation for buildings with particular rules for the seismic areas" where the rules for buildings in seismic areas concerning also the local hazard. This law, in fact, forced the municipalities to acquire, during the formation of the plans, a preventive opinion of compatibility between planning conditions and geomorphology conditions of the territory. From this date the conviction that the seismic risk must be considered inside the territorial planning especially in terms of strategies of mitigation has been strengthened. The town planners have started to take an interest in seismic risk in the [80]s when the Irpinia's earthquake took place. The researches developed after this earthquake have established that the principal cause of the collapse of buildings are due to from the wrong location of urban settlements (on slopes or crowns) After Irpinia's earthquake the first researches on seismic risk mitigation, in particular on the aspects related to the hazards and to the urban vulnerability were made.

  2. Peaking of world oil production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hirsch, R.L. (SAIC); Bezdek, Roger (MISI); Wendling, Robert (MISI)

    2005-02-01

    The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.... The purpose of this analysis was to identify the critical issues surrounding the occurrence and mitigation of world oil production peaking. We simplified many of the complexities in an effort to provide a transparent analysis. Nevertheless, our study is neither simple nor brief. We recognize that when oil prices escalate dramatically, there will be demand and economic impacts that will alter our simplified assumptions. Consideration of those feedbacks will be a daunting task but one that should be undertaken. Our aim in this study is to-- • Summarize the difficulties of oil production forecasting; • Identify the fundamentals that show why world oil production peaking is such a unique challenge; • Show why mitigation will take a decade or more of intense effort; • Examine the potential economic effects of oil peaking; • Describe what might be accomplished under three example mitigation scenarios. • Stimulate serious discussion of the problem, suggest more definitive studies, and engender interest in timely action to mitigate its impacts.

  3. Mitigating Hardware Cyber-Security Risks in Error Correcting Decoders

    OpenAIRE

    Hemati, Saied

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates hardware cyber-security risks associated with channel decoders, which are commonly acquired as a black box in semiconductor industry. It is shown that channel decoders are potentially attractive targets for hardware cyber-security attacks and can be easily embedded with malicious blocks. Several attack scenarios are considered in this work and suitable methods for mitigating the risks are proposed. These methods are based on randomizing the inputs of the channel decode...

  4. Risk Mitigation for Managing On-Orbit Anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    La, Jim

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews strategies for managing risk mitigation that occur with anomalies in on-orbit spacecraft. It reviews the risks associated with mission operations, a diagram of the method used to manage undesirable events that occur which is a closed loop fault analysis and until corrective action is successful. It also reviews the fish bone diagram which is used if greater detail is required and aids in eliminating possible failure factors.

  5. Early Benefits of Mitigation in Risk of Regional Climate Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciavarella, Andrew; Stott, Peter; Lowe, Jason

    2015-04-01

    Large differences in climate outcomes are projected over the coming century depending on whether greenhouse gas emissions continue on a business as usual path or are substantially reduced following an aggressive mitigation strategy. However, it has previously been claimed that it will take many decades for there to be any significant difference between paths of aggressive mitigation and business as usual with the emergence of differences only seen towards the middle of the century. Here we show that important differences in our exposure to risk of climate extremes in many land regions emerges much more quickly. Without substantial mitigation, in many regions of the world, extreme (one in 20-year) seasonal, regional near surface air temperatures are found to have become more than twice as likely within only 15 years (i.e. by 2030). Therefore our exposure to climate risk is reduced substantially and rapidly with aggressive mitigation. This demonstrates that the benefits of mitigation are realised rapidly and it is not necessary to wait until the middle of the century as has previously been claimed.

  6. Mitigating the risk of radiation-induced cancers: limitations and paradigms in drug development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The United States radiation medical countermeasures (MCM) programme for radiological and nuclear incidents has been focusing on developing mitigators for the acute radiation syndrome (ARS) and delayed effects of acute radiation exposure (DEARE), and biodosimetry technologies to provide radiation dose assessments for guiding treatment. Because a nuclear accident or terrorist incident could potentially expose a large number of people to low to moderate doses of ionising radiation, and thus increase their excess lifetime cancer risk, there is an interest in developing mitigators for this purpose. This article discusses the current status, issues, and challenges regarding development of mitigators against radiation-induced cancers. The challenges of developing mitigators for ARS include: the long latency between exposure and cancer manifestation, limitations of animal models, potential side effects of the mitigator itself, potential need for long-term use, the complexity of human trials to demonstrate effectiveness, and statistical power constraints for measuring health risks (and reduction of health risks after mitigation) following relatively low radiation doses (<0.75 Gy). Nevertheless, progress in the understanding of the molecular mechanisms resulting in radiation injury, along with parallel progress in dose assessment technologies, make this an opportune, if not critical, time to invest in research strategies that result in the development of agents to lower the risk of radiation-induced cancers for populations that survive a significant radiation exposure incident. (review)

  7. Strategy Guideline: Mitigation of Retrofit Risk Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berman, M.; Smith, P.; Porse, E.

    2012-12-01

    The Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI) is currently developing strategies designed to promote and achieve increased energy savings and promote upgrades in the residential retrofit sector. These strategies are targeted to retrofit program managers, retrofit contractors, policy makers, academic researchers, and non-governmental organizations. This report focuses on four key areas to promote home energy upgrades: fostering accurate energy savings projections; understanding consumer perceptions for energy savings; measuring energy savings, and ensuring quality control for retrofit installations.

  8. Strategy Guideline. Mitigation of Retrofit Risk Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berman, M. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), Davis, CA (United States); Smith, P. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), Davis, CA (United States); Porse, E. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), Davis, CA (United States)

    2012-12-01

    The Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI) Building America team is currently developing strategies designed to promote and achieve increased energy savings and promote upgrades in the residential retrofit sector. These strategies are targeted to retrofit program managers, retrofit contractors, policy makers, academic researchers, and non-governmental organizations. This report focuses on four key areas to promote home energy upgrades: fostering accurate energy savings projections; understanding consumer perceptions for energy savings; measuring energy savings, and ensuring quality control for retrofit installations.

  9. Evaluating the effectiveness of flood damage mitigation measures by the application of Propensity Score Matching

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Hudson

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The employment of damage mitigation measures by individuals is an important component of integrated flood risk management. In order to promote efficient damage mitigation measures, accurate estimates of their damage mitigation potential are required. That is, for correctly assessing the damage mitigation measures' effectiveness from survey data, one needs to control for sources of bias. A biased estimate can occur if risk characteristics differ between individuals who have, or have not, implemented mitigation measures. This study removed this bias by applying an econometric evaluation technique called Propensity Score Matching to a survey of German households along along two major rivers major rivers that were flooded in 2002, 2005 and 2006. The application of this method detected substantial overestimates of mitigation measures' effectiveness if bias is not controlled for, ranging from nearly 1700 to 15 000 per measure. Bias-corrected effectiveness estimates of several mitigation measures show that these measures are still very effective since they prevent between 670014 000 of flood damage. This study concludes with four main recommendations regarding how to better apply Propensity Score Matching in future studies, and makes several policy recommendations.

  10. Pain management and opioid risk mitigation in the military.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharpe Potter, Jennifer; Bebarta, Vikhyat S; Marino, Elise N; Ramos, Rosemarie G; Turner, Barbara J

    2014-05-01

    Opioid analgesics misuse is a significant military health concern recognized as a priority issue by military leadership. Opioids are among those most commonly prescribed medications in the military for pain management. The military has implemented opioid risk mitigation strategies, including the Sole Provider Program and the Controlled Drug Management Analysis and Reporting Tool, which are used to identify and monitor for risk and misuse. However, there are substantial opportunities to build on these existing systems to better ensure safer opioid prescribing and monitor for misuse. Opioid risk mitigation strategies implemented by the civilian sector include establishing clinical guidelines for opioid prescribing and prescription monitoring programs. These strategies may help to inform opioid risk mitigation in the military health system. Reducing the risk of opioid misuse and improving quality of care for our Warfighters is necessary. This must be done through evidence-based approaches with an investment in research to improve patient care and prevent opioid misuse as well as its sequelae. PMID:24806501

  11. Kinematic analysis for the implementation of landslide mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delmonaco, Giuseppe; Margottini, Claudio; Spizzichino, Daniele

    2010-05-01

    The present work is finalised at the implementation of a landslide risk mitigation master plan of the ancient citadel of Machu Picchu. After the warning launched in March 2001, by the scientific community on potential collapse of the citadel from a near-disastrous landslide event different studies have been promoted to reconstruct landslide activity and suggest landslide risk mitigation measures for the protection and conservation of Machu Picchu cultural heritage. A site-scale analysis has been implemented following the application and integration of geomechanical classifications, ambient noise measurements and structural and kinematical analysis. The geology of the area is characterized by granitoid bodies that had been emplaced in the axial zones of the main rift system that are now exposed at the highest altitudes, together with country rocks (Precambrian and Lower Paleozoic metamorphics) originally constituting the rift ‘roots'. The bedrock of the Inca citadel of Machu Picchu is mainly composed by granite and subordinately granodiorite. This is mainly located in the lower part of the slopes. Superficially, the granite is jointed in blocks with variable dimensions, promoted by local structural setting. Single blocks vary from 10-1 to about 200 m3. Soil cover, widely outcropping in the area, is mainly composed by individual blocks and subordinately by coarse materials originated by chemical and physical weathering of minerals. Regional tectonic uplift and structural setting rule the general morphological features of the area and as a consequence, landslide type and evolution. Rock falls, rock slides, debris flows and debris slides are the main landslide typologies affecting the citadel slopes. In the last mission in May 2009, elastic and deformation rock parameters have been collected using a passive seismic innovative technique based on natural microtremor measurements and geostructural scan lines elaboration. A landslide zoning of the citadel has been developed by comparing GSI classification, geomorphological field survey and kinematical analysis. More in detail, areas potentially prone to rock fall and toppling have been discriminated with respect to those kinematically affected by planar sliding, and a map on potential landslide types has been implemented. This map has been used to develop a preliminary master plan on landslide risk mitigation works that take into account a vulnerability analysis previously undertaken for each single archaeological structure. Finally, a set of low impact structural measures have been designed as a function of rock mass quality and site landslide potential activity suggesting priorities in the light of recent development and exploitation by local authorities of new areas, potentially at risk, for tourism.

  12. Vrancea earthquakes. Specific actions to mitigate seismic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Earthquakes have been known in Romania since Roman times, when Trajan's legionnaires began the colonization of the rich plains stretching from the Carpathian Mountains to the Danube River. Since readings from seismographic stations became available, after 1940, it has been established that the most frequent largest earthquakes arise from deep Vrancea sources at the bend of the Carpathians Earthquakes in the Carpathian-Pannonian region are confined to the crust, except for the Vrancea zone, where earthquakes with focal depth down to 200 km occur. For example, the ruptured area migrated in depth from 150 km to 180 km (November 10, 1940, Mw =7.7), from 90 to 110 km (March 4, 1977, Mw =7.4), from 130 to 150 km (August 30, 1986, Mw =7.1), and from 70 to 90 km (May 30, 1990, Mw =6.9). The depth interval between 110 km and 130 km has remained unruptured since 1802, October 26, when the strongest known earthquake occurred in this part of Central Europe. The magnitude is assumed to have been Mw =7.9 - 8.0, and this depth interval is a natural candidate for the next strong Vrancea event. The maximum intensity for strong deep Vrancea earthquakes is quite distant from the actual epicenter and greater than the epicentral intensity. For the 1977 strong earthquake (Mw =7.4), the estimated intensity at its Vrancea region epicenter was only VII (MMI scale), while some 170 km away, in the capital city of Bucharest, the estimated maximum intensity was IX1/2 -X (MMI). The intensely deforming Vrancea zone shows a quite enigmatic seismic pattern (peak ground accelerations/intensity one, characteristic response spectra with large periods of 1.5 seconds, no significant attenuations on Romanian territory, large amplifications away, etc.). While no country in the world is entirely safe, the lack of capacity to limit the impact of seismic hazards remains a major burden for all countries and while the world has witnessed an exponential increase in human and material losses due to natural disasters given by earthquakes, there is a need to reverse trends in seismic risk mitigation to future events. Main courses of specific action to mitigate the seismic risks from strong deep Vrancea earthquakes should be considered as key to future development projects, including: - Early warning system for industrial facilities; - Short and long term prediction program of strong Vrancea earthquakes; - Seismic hazard map of Romania; - Seismic microzonation of large populated cities; - Shake map; - Seismic tomography of dams for avoiding disasters. The quality of life and the security of infrastructure (including human services, civil and industrial structures, financial infrastructure, information transmission and processing systems) in every nation are increasingly vulnerable to disasters caused by events that have geological, atmospheric, hydrologic, and technological origins. As UN Secretary General Kofi Annan pointed out, 'Building a culture of prevention is not easy. While the costs of prevention have to be paid in the present, its benefits lie in a distant future'. In other words: Prevention pays off. This may not always become apparent immediately, but, in the long run, the benefits from prevention measures will always outweigh their costs by far. Romania is an earthquake prone area and these main specific actions are really contributing to seismic risk mitigation. These specific actions are provided for in Law nr. 372/March 18,2004 -'The National Program of Seismic Risk Management'. (authors)

  13. To protect or abandon: a participatory process on landslide risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scolobig, A.; Bayer, J.; Cascini, L.; Ferlisi, S.

    2012-04-01

    With escalating costs of landslide risk mitigation and relief, a challenge for local authorities is to develop landslide risk mitigation measures that are viewed as efficient, feasible and fair by the many stakeholders involved. Innovative measures and the participation of stakeholders in the decision making process are essential elements in developing effective strategies to deal with the ever-changing spatial and temporal patterns of landslide risk. A stakeholder-led policy process, however, can face many social and economic challenges. One of the most difficult is deciding between costly protection measures or relocating homes. Particularly in areas with high population density, protection works are often not built because of economic/environmental constraints or private interests of the local residents. At the same time it not always possible to relocate households even if the costs are deemed less than protecting them. These issues turned out to be crucial in a recent participatory process for selecting risk mitigation measures in the town of Nocera Inferiore, Southern Italy, which experienced a landslide in 2005 causing three fatalities. The paper reports on this process which was structured in a series of meetings with a group of selected residents and several parallel activities open to the public. The preparatory work included semi-structured interviews carried out with key local stakeholders and a public survey eliciting residents' views on landslide risk mitigation. After describing the background of the landslide risk management problem in Nocera Inferiore, the paper focuses on three packages of risk mitigation measures (each of them not exceeding a total cost of 7 million Euro, namely the available funds) and the key trade-offs that emerged during the meetings with the residents. The participants reached a unanimous consensus on fundamental priorities, i.e. the improvement of the warning system, the implementation of an integrated system of monitoring and territorial survey and the stabilization of the open slopes with naturalistic engineering works. Much more debate was devoted to the relocation of residents from the most endangered areas and/or the need to build passive structural works, especially on private properties. Notwithstanding the difficulties in reaching a shared "compromise solution" for risk mitigation, the results demonstrate the value of citizen participation in landslide risk mitigation decisions and highlight the role that participation can play in risk management more generally.

  14. 77 FR 26292 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-03

    ... Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals Related to Knowledge.'' The... an issue paper entitled ``Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science...' knowledge about drugs' risks; (2) share current FDA experience regarding social science assessments...

  15. Uncertainty of Mitigation Measures to Floods in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Saud, M.

    2011-12-01

    As an aspect of the changing climatic conditions and anthropogenic impact; however, floods and torrents have been recently existed in Jeddah, the coastal Saudi city along the Red Sea. Distributed over 28 surface water basins, totaling an area of more than 2500km2, floods cover more than 15% of the area. This is well pronounced in 2009 and 2011, and it was attributed mainly to the torrential rainfall peaks the area witnesses lately. In addition, there is a chaotic urban distribution from the coastal zone to the adjacent mountain chains to the east, where torrential water runs towards the coast. A detailed assessment has been obtained using advanced space tools (e.g. high-resolution satellite images), and the application was carried out on several aspects of these images and at different dates. This was accomplished in combination the applications of geo-spatial systems to induce the mechanism of water flow regime and to identify the major reasons behind the high risk magnitude. Consequently, the geomorphologic and hydrologic parameters for flood occurrence were recognized. In the light of this catastrophic status; however, mitigation measures are rare enough to protect the area under risk. Recently, and after the 2009 and the recurrent 2011 disasters, which were resulted from floods, some mitigation measures have been undertaken and others were proposed. However, there is still uncertainty for an integrated flood control system. This can be viewed from the unsuitability of the selected sites and erroneous applications for flood controls. Besides, there is a lack to: 1) a giant channeling system for the risk area, 2) check dams, 3) ponds for water collection, 4) sediments-fixing controls, 5) traced watercourses. This is in addition to absence of proper legislation to prevent chaotic urban activities along valleys' pathways.

  16. Natural risk assessment and decision planning for disaster mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Fiorucci, P.; Gaetani, F.; R. Minciardi; Trasforini, E.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, decisional models are introduced aiming at defining a general framework for natural disaster mitigation. More specifically, an integrated approach based on system modelling and optimal resource assignment is presented in order to support the decision makers in pre-operational and real-time management of forest fire emergencies. Some strategies for pre-operative and real time risk management will be described and formalized as optimal resource assignment proble...

  17. Natural risk assessment and decision planning for disaster mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Fiorucci, P.; Gaetani, F.; R. Minciardi; Trasforini, E.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, decisional models are introduced aiming at defining a general framework for natural disaster mitigation. More specifically, an integrated approach based on system modelling and optimal resource assignment is presented in order to support the decision makers in pre-operational and real-time management of forest fire emergencies. Some strategies for pre-operative and real time risk management will be described and formalized as optimal resource assignment problems. To this end, s...

  18. Mitigating Supply Risk: Dual Sourcing or Process Improvement?

    OpenAIRE

    Yimin Wang; Wendell Gilland; Brian Tomlin

    2010-01-01

    Surveys suggest that supply chain risk is a growing issue for executives and that supplier reliability is of particular concern. A common mitigation strategy is for the buying firm to expend effort improving the reliability of its supply base. We explore a model in which a firm can source from multiple suppliers and/or exert effort to improve supplier reliability. For both random capacity and random yield types of supply uncertainty, we propose a model of process improvement in which improvem...

  19. Mitigation technologies and measures in energy sector of Kazakstan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pilifosova, O.; Danchuk, D.; Temertekov, T. [and others

    1996-12-31

    An important commitment in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is to conduct mitigation analysis and to communicate climate change measures and policies. In major part reducing CO{sub 2} as well as the other greenhouse gas emissions in Kazakstan, can be a side-product of measures addressed to increasing energy efficiency. Since such measures are very important for the national economy, mitigation strategies in the energy sector of Kazakstan are directly connected with the general national strategy of the energy sector development. This paper outlines the main measures and technologies in energy sector of Kazakstan which can lead to GHG emissions reduction and presents the results of current mitigation assessment. The mitigation analysis is addressed to energy production sector. A baseline and six mitigation scenarios were developed to evaluate the most attractive mitigation options, focusing on specific technologies which have been already included in sustainable energy programs. According to the baseline projection, Kazakstan`s CO{sub 2} emissions will not exceed their 1990 level until 2005. The potential for CO{sub 2} emission reduction is estimated to be about 11 % of the base line emission level by the end of considered period (in 2020). The main mitigation options in the energy production sector in terms of mitigation potential and technical and economical feasibility include rehabilitation of thermal power plants aimed to increasing efficiency, use of nuclear energy and further expansion in the use of hydro energy based on small hydroelectric power plants.

  20. Possible measures for consequences mitigation in internal flooding NPP containment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper the consequences of internal flooding NPP containment are analysed. the measures for mitigation of these consequences like: fluid deviation, active and passive means for leading away and storage of fluid outflow are suggested. The comparative analysis between active and passive methods for consequences of internal flooding mitigations is presented

  1. Current issues in dietary acrylamide: formation, mitigation and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedreschi, Franco; Mariotti, María Salomé; Granby, Kit

    2014-01-15

    Acrylamide (AA) is known as a neurotoxin in humans and it is classified as a probable human carcinogen by the International Agency of Research on Cancer. AA is produced as by-product of the Maillard reaction in starchy foods processed at high temperatures (>120 °C). This review includes the investigation of AA precursors, mechanisms of AA formation and AA mitigation technologies in potato, cereal and coffee products. Additionally, most relevant issues of AA risk assessment are discussed. New technologies tested from laboratory to industrial scale face, as a major challenge, the reduction of AA content of browned food, while still maintaining its attractive organoleptic properties. Reducing sugars such as glucose and fructose are the major contributors to AA in potato-based products. On the other hand, the limiting substrate of AA formation in cereals and coffee is the free amino acid asparagine. For some products the addition of glycine or asparaginase reduces AA formation during baking. Since, for potatoes, the limiting substrate is reducing sugars, increases in sugar content in potatoes during storage then introduce some difficulties and potentially quite large variations in the AA content of the final product. Sugars in potatoes may be reduced by blanching. Levels of AA in different foods show large variations and no general upper limit is easily applicable, since some formation will always occur. Current policy is that practical measures should be taken voluntarily to reduce AA formation in vulnerable foods since AA is considered a health risk at the concentrations found in foods. PMID:23939985

  2. Fish habitat mitigation measures for hydrotechnical projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In recent years, the identification and mitigation of environmental impacts of hydrotechnical projects, particularly on fish and fish habitats, have become a major component of project planning and design. Potential impacts to fish and fish habitat may include increased fish mortality, decreased species diversity, and loss or decreases in fish production due to loss of habitat or alteration of its suitability. These impacts arise from flooding of riverine habitat, alteration of flow quantity and distribution, changes in morphology, and alteration of water quality, including suspended sediments, temperature, dissolved oxygen, and mercury. The results of a study for the Canadian Federal Department of Fisheries and Oceans Central and Arctic Region, examining fish habitat mitigation techniques for their applicability to hydrotechnical projects in Canada are summarized. The requirements for achievement and verification of the no net loss policy for a project are discussed. 10 refs., 2 tabs

  3. The risks of measuring risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The author gives an overview of the Thirteenth Rochester International Conference on Environmental Toxicity, which examined both the logical soundness of the inference of risk and the validity of the environmental evidence of damage. Examples are itemized, concise introductions are given for each published paper in the proceedings, and an appropriate keynote is given by way of stating the established and alternate approach to risk measurement. The volume is described as ''more than a review of advance in measurement of risks to health . . . (but also) a landmark of a change in scientific opinion.''

  4. Analysing the external supply chain risk driver competitiveness: a risk mitigation framework and business continuity plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blos, Mauricio F; Wee, Hui-Ming; Yang, Joshua

    2010-11-01

    Innovation challenges for handling supply chain risks have become one of the most important drivers in business competitiveness and differentiation. This study analyses competitiveness at the external supply chain level as a driver of risks and provides a framework for mitigating these risks. The mitigation framework, also called the supply chain continuity framework, provides insight into six stages of the business continuity planning (BCP) process life cycle (risk mitigation management, business impact analysis, supply continuity strategy development, supply continuity plan development, supply continuity plan testing and supply continuity plan maintenance), together with the operational constructs: customer service, inventory management, flexibility, time to market, ordering cycle time and quality. The purpose of the BCP process life cycle and operational constructs working together is to emphasise the way in which a supply chain can deal with disruption risks and, consequently, bring competitive advantage. Future research will consider the new risk scenarios and analyse the consequences to promote the improvement of supply chain resilience. PMID:21177223

  5. Does Portfolio Diversification Mitigate Financial Risk? Evidence from Italian Survey Data

    OpenAIRE

    Deidda Manuela

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we empirically show that given the positive causal relationship running from investment in risky assets to precautionary saving, portfolio diversification mitigates the effect of financial risk upon desired precautionary savings. Using a self-reported measure of desired precautionary wealth, we re-estimate the relationship between precautionary wealth and financial risk using indicators for financial literacy as instruments for the ownership of risky assets. We eventually find f...

  6. Credit risk measurement

    OpenAIRE

    Sobotka, Jan

    2014-01-01

    This bachelor thesis deals with problematics of credit risk measurement and modeling. The thesis defines the term and concept of credit risk, accents the specifics of the credit risk and frames it in the context of other financial risks, as well as risk management of current financial institutions. It outlines incentives leading to development of regulation, modeling and measuring of the credit risk, as well as presents current situation of the mentioned field. The thesis presents and describ...

  7. Risk mapping and tsunami mitigation in Gunungkidul area, Yogyakarta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mardiatno, Djati; Sunarto, WF, Lies Rahayu; Saptadi, Gatot; Ayuningtyas, Efrinda Ari

    2015-04-01

    Coastal area of Gunungkidul Regency is one of the areas prone to tsunami in Indonesia. In contrary, currently, this area is very intensively developed as one of the favourite tourism destination. This paper is aimed at explaining tsunami risk and a mitigation type in Gunungkidul Area, Yogyakarta. Digital elevation model (DEM) and coastal morphology were used to generate tsunami hazard map. Vulnerability was analysed by utilizing land use data. Information from previous studies (e.g. from GTZ) were also considered for analysis. Tsunami risk was classified into three classes, i.e. high risk, medium risk, and low risk and visualized in the form of tsunami risk map. Tsunami risk map is a tool which can be used as disaster reduction instrument, such as for evacuation routes planning. Based on the preliminary results of this research, it is clear that tsunami risk in this area is varied depend on the morphological condition of the location. There are five coastal area selected as the location, i.e. Ngrenehan, Baron, Sepanjang, PulangSawal, and Sadeng. All locations have the high risk zone to tsunami, especially for bay area. Evacuation routes were generated for all locations by considering the local landscape condition. There are several differences of evacuation ways for each location.

  8. Interventionist and participatory approaches to flood risk mitigation decisions: two case studies in the Italian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchizza, C.; Del Bianco, D.; Pellizzoni, L.; Scolobig, A.

    2012-04-01

    Flood risk mitigation decisions pose key challenges not only from a technical but also from a social, economic and political viewpoint. There is an increasing demand for improving the quality of these processes by including different stakeholders - and especially by involving the local residents in the decision making process - and by guaranteeing the actual improvement of local social capacities during and after the decision making. In this paper we analyse two case studies of flood risk mitigation decisions, Malborghetto-Valbruna and Vipiteno-Sterzing, in the Italian Alps. In both of them, mitigation works have been completed or planned, yet following completely different approaches especially in terms of responses of residents and involvement of local authorities. In Malborghetto-Valbruna an 'interventionist' approach (i.e. leaning towards a top down/technocratic decision process) was used to make decisions after the flood event that affected the municipality in the year 2003. In Vipiteno-Sterzing, a 'participatory' approach (i.e. leaning towards a bottom-up/inclusive decision process) was applied: decisions about risk mitigation measures were made by submitting different projects to the local citizens and by involving them in the decision making process. The analysis of the two case studies presented in the paper is grounded on the results of two research projects. Structured and in-depth interviews, as well as questionnaire surveys were used to explore residents' and local authorities' orientations toward flood risk mitigation. Also a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) involving key stakeholders was used to better understand the characteristics of the communities and their perception of flood risk mitigation issues. The results highlight some key differences between interventionist and participatory approaches, together with some implications of their adoption in the local context. Strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches, as well as key challenges for the future are also discussed.

  9. Measures of Systemic Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Zachary Feinstein; Birgit Rudloff; Stefan Weber

    2015-01-01

    Systemic risk refers to the risk that the financial system is susceptible to failures due to the characteristics of the system itself. The tremendous cost of systemic risk requires the design and implementation of tools for the efficient macroprudential regulation of financial institutions. The current paper proposes a novel approach to measuring systemic risk. Key to our construction is a rigorous derivation of systemic risk measures from the structure of the underlying system and the object...

  10. Natural risk assessment and decision planning for disaster mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Fiorucci

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, decisional models are introduced aiming at defining a general framework for natural disaster mitigation. More specifically, an integrated approach based on system modelling and optimal resource assignment is presented in order to support the decision makers in pre-operational and real-time management of forest fire emergencies. Some strategies for pre-operative and real time risk management will be described and formalized as optimal resource assignment problems. To this end, some models capable to describe the resources dynamics will be introduced, both in pre-operative phase and in real-time phase.

  11. Mitigation measures for the La Grande 1 hydroelectric development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Measures to mitigate environmental impacts of the La Grande 1 hydroelectric development are described. An overview is presented of the La Grande 1 project, its surrounding environment, and the principle environmental repercussions of the reservoir, hydrological changes between the dam and river mouth, construction activities and permanent and temporary structures, and presence of workers. Mitigation measures including compensation, corrective measures (deforestation, selective cutting, fish populations, wildlife populations, land rehabilitation, access roads, fisheries, and erosion control), protective measures, enhancement measures, and contract and employment opportunities for the Cree population are described. 10 refs., 2 figs

  12. IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF STRUCTURAL FLOOD MITIGATION MEASURES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZVIJAKOVA LENKA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the paper is to propose a methodology for assessing water constructions, which will allow impact assessment of water constructions on the environment and hence select the best option for the permission process. The result is “Guideline for environmental impact assessment of flood protection object”, which uses the method of UMRA (universal matrix of risk analysis, which is one of the methods of risk analysis proposed not only to enhance the transparency and sensitivity of the evaluation process, but also to cope with the requirements of the EIA system in the Slovakia and Europe Union.

  13. Managing U.S. climate risk through mitigation: Insights from the American Climate Prospectus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, R. E., III; Hsiang, S. M.; Houser, T.; Larsen, K.; Rasmussen, D. M., Jr.; Jina, A.; Rising, J.; Delgado, M.; Mohan, S.; Muir-Wood, R.; Wilson, P. S.

    2014-12-01

    The American Climate Prospectus (ACP), the technical analysis underlying the Risky Business project, quantitatively assessed the economic risks posed to the United States by six categories of climate change impacts: crop yield, energy demand, coastal storm damage, criminal activity, labor productivity, and mortality [1]. At a national level, measured by impact on gross domestic product, increased mortality and decreased labor productivity pose the large risks, followed by increased energy demand and coastal damages. Changes in crop yield and crime have smaller impacts. The ACP was not intended to conduct a benefit-cost analysis of climate change mitigation. It assessed the economic consequences of future impacts on an economy with a structure equivalent to that of the current economy, not accounting for socio-economic development and adaptation, and did not assess the cost of mitigation. One of its primary goals was to inform adaptation decisions that are conventionally considered 'endogenous' in economic analyses of climate change. Nonetheless, its results provide insight into the potential of mitigation to manage climate risk. Differences between RCP 8.5 (moderately-high business-as-usual emissions), RCP 4.5 (moderate mitigation) and RCP 2.6 (extremely strong mitigation) are not apparent until mid-century and become significant only late in the century. For all impacts except coastal damages, mitigation significantly reduces uncertainty in late-century impact estimates. Nationally, mitigation significantly and monotonically reduces median projected labor productivity losses and violent crime. Switching from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 also significantly reduces median projections of mortality and energy demand, but the domestic value to the U.S. of further mitigation to RCP 2.6 is less clear. The marginal benefits decline in part because some regions of the country (especially the Northwest) may experience increased crop yields, reduced mortality, and reduced energy demand under all RCPs. Because of the slow response time of sea level to change in emissions, the coastal risk reduction in the current century from mitigation is least clear. References: [1] T. Houser et al. (2014), American Climate Prospectus, www.climateprospectus.org.

  14. Vrancea earthquakes. Courses for specific actions to mitigate seismic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Earthquakes in the Carpathian-Pannonian region are confined to the crust, except the Vrancea zone, where earthquakes with focal depth down to 200 Km occur. For example, the ruptured area migrated from 150 km to 180 km (November 10,1940, Mw = 7.7) from 90 km to 110 km (March 4, 1977, Mw 7.4), from 130 km to 150 km (August 30, 1986, Mw = 7.1) and from 70 km to 90 km (May 30, 1990, Mw = 6.9) depth. The depth interval between 110 km and 130 km remains not ruptured since 1802, October 26, when it was the strongest earthquake occurred in this part of Central Europe. The magnitude is assumed to be Mw = 7.9 - 8.0 and this depth interval is a natural candidate for the next strong Vrancea event. While no country in the world is entirely safe, the lack of capacity to limit the impact of seismic hazards remains a major burden for all countries and while the world has witnessed an exponential increase in human and material losses due to natural disasters given by earthquakes, there is a need to reverse trends in seismic risk mitigation to future events. Main courses for specific actions to mitigate the seismic risk given by strong deep Vrancea earthquakes should be considered as key for development actions: - Early warning system for industrial facilities. Early warning is more than a technological instrument to detect, monitor and submit warnings. It should become part of a management information system for decision-making in the context of national institutional frameworks for disaster management and part of national and local strategies and programmers for risk mitigation; - Prediction program of Vrancea strong earthquakes of short and long term; - Hazard seismic map of Romania. The wrong assessment of the seismic hazard can lead to dramatic situations as those from Bucharest or Kobe. Before the 1977 Vrancea earthquake, the city of Bucharest was designed to intensity I = VII (MMI) and the real intensity was I = IX1/2-X (MMI); - Seismic microzonation of large populated cities. There are zones in Bucharest which have fundamental periods of the soil and geological structures very different and during August 30, 1986 Vrancea earthquake the variations of the recorded peak accelerations were from simple to triple ones; - Shake map. This shake map now under completion will allow us rapidly portray, in real time, the extent of shaking during of earthquake in a simplified form suitable for immediate post-earthquake decision-making; - Seismic tomography of dams for avoiding catastrophes. There are applications of seismic tomography and in general of seismic imaging like methods of investigation for mitigation of earthquake effects. (authors)

  15. Public perception of flood risks, flood forecasting and mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Brilly

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available A multidisciplinary and integrated approach to the flood mitigation decision making process should provide the best response of society in a flood hazard situation including preparation works and post hazard mitigation. In Slovenia, there is a great lack of data on social aspects and public response to flood mitigation measures and information management. In this paper, two studies of flood perception in the Slovenian town Celje are represented. During its history, Celje was often exposed to floods, the most recent serious floods being in 1990 and in 1998, with a hundred and fifty return period and more than ten year return period, respectively. Two surveys were conducted in 1997 and 2003, with 157 participants from different areas of the town in the first, and 208 in the second study, aiming at finding the general attitude toward the floods. The surveys revealed that floods present a serious threat in the eyes of the inhabitants, and that the perception of threat depends, to a certain degree, on the place of residence. The surveys also highlighted, among the other measures, solidarity and the importance of insurance against floods.

  16. Optimal CO2 mitigation under damage risk valuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crost, Benjamin; Traeger, Christian P.

    2014-07-01

    The current generation has to set mitigation policy under uncertainty about the economic consequences of climate change. This uncertainty governs both the level of damages for a given level of warming, and the steepness of the increase in damage per warming degree. Our model of climate and the economy is a stochastic version of a model employed in assessing the US Social Cost of Carbon (DICE). We compute the optimal carbon taxes and CO2 abatement levels that maximize welfare from economic consumption over time under different risk states. In accordance with recent developments in finance, we separate preferences about time and risk to improve the model's calibration of welfare to observed market interest. We show that introducing the modern asset pricing framework doubles optimal abatement and carbon taxation. Uncertainty over the level of damages at a given temperature increase can result in a slight increase of optimal emissions as compared to using expected damages. In contrast, uncertainty governing the steepness of the damage increase in temperature results in a substantially higher level of optimal mitigation.

  17. Mitigation of Volcanic Risk: The COSMO-SkyMed Contribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sacco, Patrizia; Daraio, Maria Girolamo; Battagliere, Maria Libera; Coletta, Alessandro

    2015-05-01

    The Italian Space Agency (ASI) promotes Earth Observation (EO) applications related to themes such as the prediction, monitoring, management and mitigation of natural and anthropogenic hazards. The approach generally followed is the development and demonstration of prototype services, using currently available data from space missions, in particular the COSMO-SkyMed (Constellation of Small Satellites for Mediterranean basin observation) mission, which represents the largest Italian investment in Space System for EO and thanks to which Italy plays a key role worldwide. Projects funded by ASI provide the convergence of various national industry expertise, research and institutional reference users. In this context a significant example is represented by the ASI Pilot Projects, recently concluded, dealing with various thematic, such as volcanoes. In this paper a special focus will be addressed to the volcanic risk management and the contribution provided in this field by COSMO-SkyMed satellite constellation during the last years. A comprehensive overview of the various national and international projects using COSMO-SkyMed data for the volcanic risk mitigation will be given, highlighting the Italian contribution provided worldwide in this operational framework.

  18. Optimum cooling of data centers application of risk assessment and mitigation techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Dai, Jun; Das, Diganta; Pecht, Michael G

    2014-01-01

    This book provides data center designers and operators with methods by which to assess and mitigate the risks associated with utilization of optimum cooling solutions. The goal is to provide readers with sufficient knowledge to implement measures such as free air cooling or direct liquid immersion cooling properly, or combination of existing and emerging cooling technologies in data centers, base stations, and server farms. This book also: Discusses various telecommunication infrastructures, with an emphasis on data centers and base stations Covers the most commonly known energy and power management techniques, as well as emerging cooling solutions for data centers Describes the risks to the electronic equipment fitted in these installations and the methods of risk mitigation Devotes  a particular focus to an up-to-date review of the emerging cooling methods (such as free air cooling and direct liquid immersion cooling) and tools and best practices for designers, technology developers, installation operators...

  19. Systemic risk measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerra, Solange Maria; Silva, Thiago Christiano; Tabak, Benjamin Miranda; de Souza Penaloza, Rodrigo Andrés; de Castro Miranda, Rodrigo César

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we present systemic risk measures based on contingent claims approach and banking sector multivariate density. We also apply network measures to analyze bank common risk exposure. The proposed measures aim to capture credit risk stress and its potential to become systemic. These indicators capture not only individual bank vulnerability, but also the stress dependency structure between them. Furthermore, these measures can be quite useful for identifying systemically important banks. The empirical results show that these indicators capture with considerable fidelity the moments of increasing systemic risk in the Brazilian banking sector in recent years.

  20. Essential severe accident mitigation measures for operating and future PWR's

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Severe Accident mitigation measures are a constituent of the safety concept in Europe not only for operating but also for future light water reactors. While operating reactors mainly have been backfitted with such measure, for future reactors Severe Accident mitigation measures already have to be considered in the design phase. Severe Accident measures are considered as the 4th level of defense for future reactors. This difference has consequences also on the kind of measures proposed to be introduced. While in operating plants Severe Accident mitigation measures are considered for further risk reduction, in future reactors an explicit higher level of safety is required resulting in additional design measures. This higher safety level is expressed in the requirement that there must be no need for evacuation of surrounding populations except in the immediate vicinity of the plant and for long-term restrictions with regard to the consumption of locally grown food. Because of the potential hazard posed by radioactive releases to the environment in the event of an Severe Accident situation depends largely on the airborne material in the containment atmosphere and on the containment integrity, new system features to prevent loss of containment integrity have been introduced in the design of the NPP's. For these tasks it has been necessary to develop and qualify new system technologies and implement them finally into NPP's, e.g. like systems for containment atmosphere H2-control, filtered venting, core retention devices and atmosphere sampling. The following systems are introduced for operating as well as for future plants: The Hydrogen Control System is based on the Passive Autocatalytic Recombiner (PAR) technology. There is no need for any operator actions because of the self-starting feature of the catalyst if hydrogen is released. In situ Post Accident Sampling System (In situ-PASS) are introduced for the purpose of obtaining realistic information on airborne material in the containment atmosphere, on the conditions of the core and for effective accident management decisions. These new in-situ sampling technology was developed and implemented to avoid the strong deposition errors of iodine and aerosols in conventional pipe extraction systems. The venting system is introduced for operating plants and can also be used for future plants although it is not required for the EPR. The Sliding Pressure Venting System consists mainly of a venturi scrubber unit with integrated high efficient metal fiber filter followed by means for super sonic throttling and operation under the sliding containment pressure conditions. Due to this special design and operation the system dimensions could be kept small in spite of obtaining high retention rates for aerosols of >99.99% and that for molecular iodide is >99.5%. For the EPR additional measures for maintaining the containment integrity are foreseen: use of highly reliable dedicated valves for depressurization which supplement normal bleed valves to eliminate high pressure RPV failure use of a core melt retention device for melt stabilization by means of spreading of the melt within a large compartment adjacent to the reactor pit, followed by flooding, quenching and cooling of the melt from the top and via a bottom cooling structure; use of a dedicated active two-train containment heat removal system which needs to operate not earlier than 12h after start of the accident

  1. QUALITY BASED CREDIT RISK MITIGATION FOR BANK PERFORMANCE ENHANCEMENT: EMPIRIC STUDY IN AN INDONESIAN BANK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nini Avieni

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available There is an ongoing controversy over whether risk mitigation inherently enhances business performance. The aim of this paper is to settle the controversy, and provide insights roles of risk mitigation on corporate strategy. Author examined implication of Lean Six Sigma at credit risk mitigation system at one of Indonesia banks. Based on responses from 112 credit analysts and database of business units performance indicators, this research showed a relationship between the implication of Lean Six Sigma at credit risk mitigation system and unit bank's performance. Quality Based Credit Risk Mitigation which is credit risk mitigation using Lean Six Sigma system will enhance business units performance through improvement in credit quality and credit process efficiency.

  2. Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John W. Collins

    2011-09-01

    Planning and decision making amidst programmatic and technological risks represent significant challenges for projects. This presentation addresses the four step risk-assessment process needed to determine clear path forward to mature needed technology and design, license, and construct advanced nuclear power plants, which have never been built before, including Small Modular Reactors. This four step process has been carefully applied to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. STEP 1 - Risk Identification Risks are identified, collected, and categorized as technical risks, programmatic risks, and project risks, each of which result in cost and schedule impacts if realized. These include risks arising from the use of technologies not previously demonstrated in a relevant application. These risks include normal and accident scenarios which the SMR could experience including events that cause the disablement of engineered safety features (typically documented in Phenomena Identification Ranking Tables (PIRT) as produced with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and design needs which must be addressed to further detail the design. Product - Project Risk Register contained in a database with sorting, presentation, rollup, risk work off functionality similar to the NGNP Risk Management System . STEP 2 - Risk Quantification The risks contained in the risk register are then scored for probability of occurrence and severity of consequence, if realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap. Product - Risk Handling Strategy. STEP 4 - Residual Risk Work off The risk handling strategy is entered into the Project Risk Allocation Tool (PRAT) to analyze each task for its ability to reduce risk. The result is risk-informed task prioritization. The risk handling strategy is captured in the Risk Management System, a relational database that provides conventional database utility, including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. The tool's Hierarchy Tree allows visualization and analyses of complex relationships between risks, risk mitigation tasks, design needs, and PIRTs. Product - Project Risk Allocation Tool and Risk Management System which depict project plan to reduce risk and current progress in doing so.

  3. Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Planning and decision making amidst programmatic and technological risks represent significant challenges for projects. This presentation addresses the four step risk-assessment process needed to determine clear path forward to mature needed technology and design, license, and construct advanced nuclear power plants, which have never been built before, including Small Modular Reactors. This four step process has been carefully applied to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. STEP 1 - Risk Identification Risks are identified, collected, and categorized as technical risks, programmatic risks, and project risks, each of which result in cost and schedule impacts if realized. These include risks arising from the use of technologies not previously demonstrated in a relevant application. These risks include normal and accident scenarios which the SMR could experience including events that cause the disablement of engineered safety features (typically documented in Phenomena Identification Ranking Tables (PIRT) as produced with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and design needs which must be addressed to further detail the design. Product - Project Risk Register contained in a database with sorting, presentation, rollup, risk work off functionality similar to the NGNP Risk Management System . STEP 2 - Risk Quantification The risks contained in the risk register are then scored for probability of occurrence and severity of consequence, if realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap. Product - Risk Handling Strategy. STEP 4 - Residual Risk Work off The risk handling strategy is entered into the Project Risk Allocation Tool (PRAT) to analyze each task for its ability to reduce risk. The result is risk-informed task prioritization. The risk handling strategy is captured in the Risk Management System, a relational database that provides conventional database utility, including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. The tool's Hierarchy Tree allows visualization and analyses of complex relationships between risks, risk mitigation tasks, design needs, and PIRTs. Product - Project Risk Allocation Tool and Risk Management System which depict project plan to reduce risk and current progress in doing so.

  4. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS): educating the prescriber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholson, Susan C; Peterson, Janet; Yektashenas, Behin

    2012-02-01

    The US FDA Amendments Act of 2007 was signed into law on 27 September 2007. A provision of this law granted the FDA new powers to enhance drug safety by requiring the pharmaceutical industry to develop Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS). REMS are deemed necessary when a question exists as to whether the benefits of a drug outweigh its risks. REMS constitute a safety plan with several potential components, including a medication guide, a communication plan, elements to ensure safe use and an implementation system to help guide the prescribers, pharmacists and patients. This applies to existing drugs on the market, new drug applications (NDAs), abbreviated NDAs (generics) and biologics licence applications. REMS represent an 'upgrade' from previously required risk minimization action plans, based on the strengthening of FDA powers of authority and enforceability to incur monetary penalties against individuals representing the pharmaceutical industry who fail to comply. For illustrative purposes, we chose the drug romiplostim (Nplate®) to present an REMS, as all components were utilized to help assuage risks associated with the drug. Romiplostim is an FDA-approved drug used to treat thrombocytopenia in patients with chronic immune (idiopathic) thrombocytopenic purpura that has a significant adverse safety profile based on the risk of changes in bone marrow reticulin formation and bone marrow fibroses, and other associated risks. This review of current REMS policy is intended to provide the prescriber with a better understanding of current modalities in FDA-mandated drug safety programmes, which will impact day-to-day healthcare provider practices. PMID:22171604

  5. Measuring Model Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas Breuer; Imre Csiszar

    2013-01-01

    We propose to interpret distribution model risk as sensitivity of expected loss to changes in the risk factor distribution, and to measure the distribution model risk of a portfolio by the maximum expected loss over a set of plausible distributions defined in terms of some divergence from an estimated distribution. The divergence may be relative entropy, a Bregman distance, or an $f$-divergence. We give formulas for the calculation of distribution model risk and explicitly determine the worst...

  6. Mitigating Thermal Runaway Risk in Lithium Ion Batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darcy, Eric; Jeevarajan, Judy; Russell, Samuel

    2014-01-01

    The JSC/NESC team has successfully demonstrated Thermal Runaway (TR) risk reduction in a lithium ion battery for human space flight by developing and implementing verifiable design features which interrupt energy transfer between adjacent electrochemical cells. Conventional lithium ion (li-Ion) batteries can fail catastrophically as a result of a single cell going into thermal runaway. Thermal runaway results when an internal component fails to separate electrode materials leading to localized heating and complete combustion of the lithium ion cell. Previously, the greatest control to minimize the probability of cell failure was individual cell screening. Combining thermal runaway propagation mitigation design features with a comprehensive screening program reduces both the probability, and the severity, of a single cell failure.

  7. Women, mercury and artisanal gold mining : Risk communication and mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinton, J. J.; Veiga, M. M.; Beinhoff, C.

    2003-05-01

    Artisanal miners employ rudimentary techniques for minéral extraction and often operate under hazardous, labour intensive, highly disorganized and illegal conditions. Gold is the main mineral extracted by artisanal miners, and the ecological and human health impacts resulting from mercury (Hg) use in gold extraction warrant special consideration. More than 30% of world's 13 million artisanal miners are women and, as they are often perceived to be less suited for labour intensive mining methods, the majority of women work in the processing aspect of artisanal mining, including amalgamation with Hg. As women are also predominantly responsible for food preparation, they are in an excellent position to respond to health risks associated with consumption of Hg-contaminated foods in impacted areas. In addition to their influence on consumption habits, women in artisanal mining communities may be in a position to effect positive change with respect to the technologies employed. Thus, gender sensitive approaches are necessary to reduce exposure risks to women and their families, promote clean technologies and support the development of stronger, healthier artisanal mining communities. This paper describes the roles of women in artisanal gold mining, highlights their importance in reducing the Hg exposure in these communities, and provides insight into how risks from Hg pollution can effectively be communicated and mitigated.

  8. Reducing New Orleans Residential Flood Risk in an Uncertain Future Using Non-Structural Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischbach, J. R.; Groves, D.; Johnson, D.

    2010-12-01

    Five years after Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast, the long-term future of the City of New Orleans remains uncertain. This paper addresses one of New Orleans' most critical challenges: how to make the city more resilient and less vulnerable to future flood damages. Despite recent upgrades to the protection system surrounding the city designed to protect against floods with a 1-in-100 (1%) annual chance of occurrence, New Orleans remains vulnerable to lower-frequency, high-damage events. In addition, uncertain factors that influence flood risk, including coastal land loss and subsidence, rising sea levels, and population recovery and growth, may lead to increasing risk over time. Current proposals for risk reduction in New Orleans and South Louisiana, however, have not fully accounted for these key uncertain drivers. Rather than focus on additional large-scale structural infrastructure investments, this paper considers proposals to augment the existing protection system with ``non-structural" risk mitigation programs. Non-structural risk mitigation includes incentives for elevating existing or new structures, revised building codes, incentives for relocation to lower risk areas, and land use restrictions designed to curtail future growth in the floodplain. This research estimates the risk reduction benefits and implementation costs of non-structural risk mitigation strategies focused on single-family or small multi-family homes in New Orleans. We draw from existing risk models to develop a low-resolution scenario generator, NOLArisk, designed to produce first-order estimates of property risk from 2011-2060 across a range of uncertain future scenarios. We then apply exploratory modeling and Robust Decision Making (RDM) methods to a) suggest strategies that balance risk reduction and implementation costs across many or most plausible futures, and b) identify scenarios in which current alternatives yield negative net economic benefits or excessive levels of residual risk.

  9. TSUNAMI RISK MITIGATION THROUGH STRATEGIC LAND-USE PLANNING AND EVACUATION PROCEDURES FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN SRI LANKA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Woharika Kaumudi Weerasinghe

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Safety measures against the future disaster risk are considered as the main aspect of post disaster reconstructions. The majority of post-disaster villages/settlements and due projects on Sri Lankan coastline are apparently lacking behind the proper safety measures and adequate evacuation procedures. Therefore the immediate necessities of proper safety measures have to be emphasized in order to mitigate future tsunami risks. This paper introduces a number of post disaster coastal villages/settlements, which are in future coastline hazard risk, mainly in a future tsunami event. These include their location risk, land uses and housing designs defects and shortcomings of other safety measures. Furthermore few tsunami risk mitigation measures through land use planning strategies, which could be applied more easily in community level, are introduced. In addition to those the strategic development methods of functional networks of evacuation routes and shelters in different topographies are examined.

  10. Five Years On: Tsunami Risk Mitigation and Disaster Management Initiatives in Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayasekera Wijetunge, J.

    2009-12-01

    The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 caused unprecedented loss of lives and damage to property in Sri Lanka with over 35,000 killed, 20,000 injured and about 100,000 dwellings and other buildings destroyed or damaged. This catastrophic event also exposed lack of disaster preparedness at the time in Sri Lanka and underscored the need for pro-active disaster planning and risk mitigation. Given the apparently low probability of recurrence of destructive ocean-wide tsunami similar to that in 2004, Sri Lanka preferred an integrated approach to tsunami risk mitigation consisting primarily of non-structural measures, namely, public education and awareness; early warning and evacuation; hazard and risk mapping; and necessary institutional and legislative initiatives. The Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System currently under development, though by no means foolproof, will help improve Sri Lankas tsunami early warning capability and reliability. Yet, the more difficult and challenging task will be the dissemination of such tsunami warnings fast and effectively to the vulnerable communities so as to enable their evacuation to safe locations. The Disaster Management Centre of the Government of Sri Lanka has been coordinating all activities related to disaster risk mitigation in the country. Their efforts have indeed been commendable, particularly in setting up of institutional mechanisms to better coordinate risk mitigation activities and in strengthening, streamlining and directing the capabilities and resources of relevant governmental and non-governmental organizations towards a common goal of disaster risk reduction through a multi-hazard approach. The university system in Sri Lanka also has made many contributions towards disaster mitigation through capacity building initiatives, hazard mapping and research. On the whole, Sri Lanka has taken significant steps towards disaster risk reduction since the tsunami devastation in 2004. The country now has a sound disaster risk management institutional framework underpinned by necessary legislative provisions. A comprehensive and holistic strategy has been formulated to unify, prioritize and coordinate the disaster risk management activities that have been planned to be implemented in the next 5-10 years towards building a safer Sri Lanka. As a result, we in Sri Lanka are expected to face disasters better than what we were five years back, yet there is a long way to go to make ourselves disaster resilient.

  11. Measuring Idiosyncratic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunesen, Eva Rytter

    This paper offers two refinements of the traditional risk measure based on the volatility of growth. First, we condition GDP growth on structural characteristics of the host country that move only slowly and therefore can be partly predicted by an investor. Second, we adjust conditional risk for...... the systematic components due to the global and regional interdependence between alternative investment locations. The decomposition of conditional risk into its systematic and idiosyncratic components reveals that not only are African countries on average characterised by a larger conditional risk...... than Asian and Latin American countries, but the idiosyncratic risk factor also represents a larger share than in other developing countries. As a final contribution, we search the empirical literature on foreign direct investment and risk in order to determine which of the suggested risk measures...

  12. Contractual strategies for risk mitigation : developing wind power projects in emerging markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This presentation outlined the risks associated with wind projects in emerging markets. The risks are similar to those of any wind project and include risks associated with construction, regulations, markets, technology, operations, payment, politics, and wind resource. This presentation described the underlying conditions for each of those risks and presented a structure for wind projects that would mitigate these risks. In emerging markets, regulatory risks may be more difficult to quantify and there is likely to be an increase in payment risk, political risk and legal risk. The role of Concessions or Implementation Agreements in mitigating the risk was discussed

  13. Human Factors Research for Space Exploration: Measurement, Modeling, and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiser, Mary K.; Allen, Christopher S.; Barshi, Immanuel; Billman, Dorrit; Holden, Kritina L.

    2010-01-01

    As part of NASA's Human Research Program, the Space Human Factors Engineering Project serves as the bridge between Human Factors research and Human Spaceflight applications. Our goal is to be responsive to the operational community while addressing issues at a sufficient level of abstraction to ensure that our tools and solutions generalize beyond the point design. In this panel, representatives from four of our research domains will discuss the challenges they face in solving current problems while also enabling future capabilities. Historically, engineering-dominated organizations have tended to view good Human Factors (HF) as a desire rather than a requirement in system design and development. Our field has made significant gains in the past decade, however; the Department of Defense, for example, now recognizes Human-System Integration (HSI), of which HF is a component, as an integral part of their divisions hardware acquisition processes. And our own agency was far more accepting of HF/HSI requirements during the most recent vehicle systems definition than in any prior cycle. Nonetheless, HF subject matter experts at NASA often find themselves in catch up mode... coping with legacy systems (hardware and software) and procedures that were designed with little regard for the human element, and too often with an attitude of we can deal with any operator issues during training. Our challenge, then, is to segregate the true knowledge gaps in Space Human Factors from the prior failures to incorporate best (or even good) HF design principles. Further, we strive to extract the overarching core HF issues from the point-design-specific concerns that capture the operators (and managers) attention. Generally, our approach embraces a 3M approach to Human Factors: Measurement, Modeling, and Mitigation. Our first step is to measure human performance, to move from subjective anecdotes to objective, quantified data. Next we model the phenomenon, using appropriate methods in our field, modifying them to suit the unique aspects of the space environment. Finally, we develop technologies, tools, and procedures to mitigate the decrements in human performance and capabilities that occur in space environments. When successful, we decrease risks to crew safety and to mission success. When extremely successful (or lucky), we devise generalizable solutions that advance the state of our practice. Our panel is composed of researchers from diverse domains of our project... from different boxes, if you will, of the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS).

  14. GHG emission mitigation measures and technologies in the Czech Republic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tichy, M. [Energy Efficiency Center, Prague (Czech Republic)

    1996-12-31

    The paper presents a short overview of main results in two fields: projection of GHG emission from energy sector in the Czech Republic and assessment of technologies and options for GHG mitigation. The last part presents an overview of measures that were prepared for potential inclusion to the Czech Climate Change Action Plan.

  15. 'High-health, high-performance' horses: risk mitigation strategies for OIE-listed diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominguez, M; Münstermann, S; Murray, G; Timoney, P

    2015-12-01

    The 'high-health, high-performance' (HHP) horse concept has been developed by the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) together with the F6ddration Equestre Internationale and the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities. This concept is outlined in the OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code (Chapter 4.16). It aims to address impediments to the international movement of competition horses through a harmonised, practically feasible, globally applicable framework based on simplified certification requirements for the temporary importation of HHP horses and for their return to their country of usual residence. Based on the principle of compartmentalisation, the high health status of these horses would be established by the application, at all times, of stringent health management practices and biosecurity measures to create and maintain a functional separation between horses within the defined compartment and all other equids. These provisions are intended to mitigate the risk of disease spread for most OIE-listed diseases. For six OIE-listed diseases (African horse sickness, equine influenza, equine infectious anaemia, equine piroplasmosis, glanders and Venezuelan equine encephalomyelitis), the OIE recommends disease-specific mitigation measures, which have been included in a model HHP Veterinary Certificate, to provide additional guarantees to mitigate the risk of disease spread. This article presents the HH P disease risk mitigation strategy. It demonstrates how continuous observance of the HHP biosecurity measures and health management practices provides a scientific rationale for limiting the list of diseases for which HHP horses should be screened with respect to their temporary importation for competition purposes. PMID:27044155

  16. Potential of lactic acid bacteria in aflatoxin risk mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahlberg, Sara H; Joutsjoki, Vesa; Korhonen, Hannu J

    2015-08-17

    Aflatoxins (AF) are ubiquitous mycotoxins contaminating food and feed. Consumption of contaminated food and feed can cause a severe health risk to humans and animals. A novel biological method could reduce the health risks of aflatoxins through inhibiting mold growth and binding aflatoxins. Lactic acid bacteria (LAB) are commonly used in fermented food production. LAB are known to inhibit mold growth and, to some extent, to bind aflatoxins in different matrices. Reduced mold growth and aflatoxin production may be caused by competition for nutrients between bacterial cells and fungi. Most likely, binding of aflatoxins depends on environmental conditions and is strain-specific. Killed bacteria cells possess consistently better binding abilities for aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) than viable cells. Lactobacilli especially are relatively well studied and provide noticeable possibilities in binding of aflatoxin B1 and M1 in food. It seems that binding is reversible and that bound aflatoxins are released later on (Haskard et al., 2001; Peltonen et al., 2001). This literature review suggests that novel biological methods, such as lactic acid bacteria, show potential in mitigating toxic effects of aflatoxins in food and feed. PMID:26001523

  17. An economic and geographic appraisal of a spatial natural hazard risk: a study of landslide mitigation rules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernknopf, R.L.; Brookshire, D.S.; Campbell, R.H.; Shapiro, C.D.

    1988-01-01

    Efficient mitigation of natural hazards requires a spatial representation of the risk, based upon the geographic distribution of physical parameters and man-related development activities. Through such a representation, the spatial probability of landslides based upon physical science concepts is estimated for Cincinnati, Ohio. Mitigation programs designed to reduce loss from landslide natural hazards are then evaluated. An optimum mitigation rule is suggested that is spatially selective and is determined by objective measurements of hillside slope and properties of the underlying soil. -Authors

  18. TSUNAMI RISK MITIGATION THROUGH STRATEGIC LAND-USE PLANNING AND EVACUATION PROCEDURES FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN SRI LANKA

    OpenAIRE

    Woharika Kaumudi Weerasinghe; Akihiko Hokugo; Yuko Ikenouchi

    2011-01-01

    Safety measures against the future disaster risk are considered as the main aspect of post disaster reconstructions. The majority of post-disaster villages/settlements and due projects on Sri Lankan coastline are apparently lacking behind the proper safety measures and adequate evacuation procedures. Therefore the immediate necessities of proper safety measures have to be emphasized in order to mitigate future tsunami risks. This paper introduces a number of post disaster coastal villages/set...

  19. Priority mitigation measures in non-energy sector in Kazakstan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mizina, S.V.; Pilifosova, O.V.; Gossen, E.F.

    1996-12-31

    Fulfilling the Commitments on UN FCCC through the U.S. Country Studies Program, Kazakstan has developed the national GHG Inventory, vulnerability and adaptation assessment and estimated the possibility of mitigation measures in certain sectors. Next step is developing National Climate Change Action Plan. That process includes such major steps as setting priorities in mitigation measures and technologies, their comprehensive evaluation, preparation implementation strategies, developing the procedure of incorporation of the National Action Plan into other development plans and programs. This paper presents programs and measures that can reduce GHG emissions in non-energy sector. Measures in land-use change and forestry, agriculture and coal mining are considered. Current situation in non-energy sector of Kazakstan is discussed. The amount of GHG emissions reduction and cost analysis presented in this paper was developed with the use of IPCC recommendations.

  20. Efficiency of distributed flood mitigation measures at watershed scale

    OpenAIRE

    Chennu, S.; Grsillon, J.M.; Faure, J.B.; E. Leblois; Poulard, C.; Dartus, D.

    2008-01-01

    Flood management has to undergo changes in order to meet the present societal needs. At watershed scale, zones of human activities are found dispersed and logically any protection measure needs to be oriented for the entire area. Retention of excess flow volume locally and consequent discharge into the watercourse is a good management plan for a holistic protection. Structural mitigation measures such as dry dams are undertaken for such dispersed retention management in this study. Dry dams a...

  1. Consumerization of IT: Risk Mitigation Strategies and Good Practices. Responding to the Emerging Threat Environment

    OpenAIRE

    Lioy, Antonio

    2011-01-01

    This report presents security policies that can be deployed to mitigate risks that are related with the trend of Consumerization of IT (COIT) and Bring Your Own Device (BYOD). The aim of this document is to identify mitigation strategies, policies and controls for the risks identified in this area

  2. Accident management measures for prevention or mitigation of severe accidents in light water reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For further reduction of the residual risk of light water reactors, a concept has been realized which, based on the existing safety concept, provides for measures for the range beyond the design boundaries. These accident management measures for prevention or mitigation of severe accidents may utilize the reserves existing in plants or may require special backfittings. The development during the past few years is summarized. (orig.)

  3. Can marriage education mitigate the risks associated with premarital cohabitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhoades, Galena K; Stanley, Scott M; Markman, Howard J; Allen, Elizabeth S

    2015-06-01

    This study tested whether relationship education (i.e., the Prevention and Relationship Education Program; PREP) can mitigate the risk of having cohabited before making a mutual commitment to marry (i.e., "precommitment cohabitation") for marital distress and divorce. Using data from a study of PREP for married couples in the U.S. Army (N = 662 couples), we found that there was a significant association between precommitment cohabitation and lower marital satisfaction and dedication before random assignment to intervention. After intervention, this precommitment cohabitation effect was only apparent in the control group. Specifically, significant interactions between intervention condition and cohabitation history indicated that for the control group, but not the PREP group, precommitment cohabitation was associated with lower dedication as well as declines in marital satisfaction and increases in negative communication over time. Furthermore, those with precommitment cohabitation were more likely to divorce by the 2-year follow-up only in the control group; there were no differences in divorce based on premarital cohabitation history in the PREP group. These findings are discussed in light of current research on cohabitation and relationship education; potential implications are also considered. PMID:25938709

  4. Stromboli (2002-2003) crisis management and risk mitigation actions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertolaso, Guido; De Bernardinis, Bernardo; Cardaci, Chiara; Scalzo, Antonella; Rosi, Mauro

    The 2002-2003 eruptive emergency of Stromboli was the most dangerous to have occurred on the island in the past three centuries. Starting from 30 December, the national Department of Civil Protection (DCP), operating under the direct authority of the prime minister, took responsibility for the emergency management. One of the most relevant achievements was the setting up, on the island, of Centro Operativo Avanzato, a permanent scientific/civil protection structure where signals of volcano monitoring are visualized in real time and eventually used by the personnel of the DCP for immediate reactions. Volcanic risk was also structurally reduced by the construction of a new pier to facilitate rapid evacuation of Ginostra village and the planning and implementation of new walking trails and shelters at the top of the mountain. The shelters, six in total, of moderate size, were designed to resist the impact of heavy materials launched by the volcano. The risk mitigation initiatives were completed with the installation of alarm sirens in the two villages, the production and distribution of leaflets, and also by the installation of signs indicating the fastest routes to reach safe waiting areas in case of tsunami. Besides the substantial improvements in the preparedness of the Civil Protection and Stromboli's community to respond effectively to possible future emergencies of the volcano, one of the most important heritages was the elaboration and testing of new protocols and procedures concerning the handling of volcanic emergencies. Although the issues raised during the crisis showed similarities with other volcanic crisis around the world, the role played by the Civil Protection with personnel specifically trained in volcanic problems showed comparatively considerable advantages.

  5. Considerations on comprehensive risk assessment and mitigation planning of volcanic ash-fall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Volcanic ash-fall is inevitable hazard throughout Japan, and causes wide range of effects due to its physical and chemical properties. Nuclear power plants in Japan face the necessity to assess the risk from volcanic ash-fall. Risk assessment of the volcanic ash-fall should include engineering solution and mitigation planning as well as the ash-fall hazard. This report points out the characteristics for reducing the various effects of volcanic ash-fall as follows. Large-scale eruptions produce prominent volcanic ash-falls that can approach power plants at a great distance. Aftermath hazards of ash-fall events, such as remobilization of fine ash particles and generation of lahars, require further assessments. The kind and extent of damages becomes greater whenever ash is wet. Wet ash requires separate assessments in contrast to dry ash. The mitigation and recovery measures at power plants involve quick cleanup operations of volcanic ash. Those operations should be prepared through comprehensive risk assessment, and by cooperation with authorities, during pre-eruption repose period. The comprehensive assessment for volcanic ash-fall hazards, however, has yet to be conducted. Development of risk communication method may result in increased implementation mitigation planning. Numerical analysis of the ash-fall hazards provides quantitative data on particle motions that can be used in the risk assessment. In order to implement the quantitative assessment method, the verification on the effect of ambient air condition to the altitude of volcanic ash cloud is necessary. We need to develop a three-dimensional model of volcanic ash cloud, and calculate motions of ash clouds under multiple conditions of ambient air. (author)

  6. Atmospheric Effects on InSAR Measurements and Their Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Jiang-ping Long; Guang-cai Feng; Jian-jun Zhu; Zhi-wei Li; Xiao-li Ding

    2008-01-01

    Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is a powerful technology for observing the Earth surface, especially for mapping the Earth's topography and deformations. InSAR measurements are however often significantly affected by the atmosphere as the radar signals propagate through the atmosphere whose state varies both in space and in time. Great efforts have been made in recent years to better understand the properties of the atmospheric effects and to develop methods for mitigating th...

  7. Groundwater conceptual models: implications for evaluating diffuse pollution mitigation measures

    OpenAIRE

    D. J. Allen; Darling, W. G.; J. Davies; Newell, A. J.; Gooddy, D.C.; Collins, A. L.

    2014-01-01

    The Water Framework Directive (WFD) identifies diffuse pollution as a long-term threat to water quality. Farming contributes significantly to this pollution. There is a clear need for mitigation measures and assessment of their efficacy. Accordingly, Demonstration Test Catchments (DTCs) have been established in England to test the effectiveness of changes in agricultural practice on river water quality and ecology. However, the presence of groundwater in these hydrological systems implies a w...

  8. An Integrated Fuzzy Approach for the Evaluation of Supply Chain Risk Mitigation Strategies

    OpenAIRE

    Xiaojun Wang

    2014-01-01

    Competing in an increasingly uncertain business environment, organizations need to mitigate its supply chain risks to enhance their resiliency. However, it is important to implement appropriate strategies to meet business needs. This paper presents a novel approach that integrates fuzzy risk assessment and fuzzy Delphi for the evaluation of strategies in order to mitigate supply chain risks. The novelty of the model lies in the fact that an analytical tool enables the s...

  9. RiskRank: Measuring interconnected risk

    OpenAIRE

    Mezei, József; Sarlin , Peter

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes RiskRank as a joint measure of cyclical and cross-sectional systemic risk. RiskRank is a general-purpose aggregation operator that concurrently accounts for risk levels for individual entities and their interconnectedness. The measure relies on the decomposition of systemic risk into sub-components that are in turn assessed using a set of risk measures and their relationships. For this purpose, motivated by the development of the Choquet integral, we employ the RiskRank fu...

  10. Relevance of Fukushima Nuclear Accident to India: Nuclear Radiation Risk and Interventions to Mitigate Adverse Fallout

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadav Kapil, Varshney Neha, Aslesh OP, Karmakar MG, Pandav Chandrakant S

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The environmental radiation release from Fukushima nuclear power following tsunami in Japan has once again highlighted the omnipotent risk of radiation injury in the today’s world. India is at a real risk from radiation fallout both due to nuclear power plant accidents and nuclear warfare threat. The risk from nuclear radiation accident in India is further increased by the region being endemic for iodine deficiency as adverse effects following nuclear radiation fallout like thyroid cancer is significantly higher in iodine deficient populations .There is need to institute disaster preparedness measures to mitigate the damage in case of a nuclear accident. Interventions to control adverse fallout of nuclear radiation include evacuation, sheltering and food controls as well as iodine prophylaxis

  11. Operational measures for the mitigation of MIC [microbiologically influenced corrosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Although entitled Operational Measure, this section of the workshop encompasses aspects of mitigating MIC by controlling the hydraulic characteristics of a system. In order for operational considerations outside of the chemical treatment program to be effective, the system must be designed, constructed or modified, and maintained with MIC in mind. Since other papers in these proceedings discuss in detail the proper selection of materials, chemical treatments and detection of monitoring techniques, this paper is limited to quidelines for mitigating MIC and its effects by the mechanical design, maintenance and operation of the system. The key concept behind this philosophy is the synergistic relationships among microbes and among microbes and larger biofouling organisms. If the slime formers or other marine organisms can be prevented from attaching to the components, conducive environments for attack by other species is avoided

  12. Power Outage, Business Continuity and Businesses' Choices of Power Outage Mitigation Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Asgary

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Power outage has been mentioned as one of the most experienced and perceived risks by various types of businesses and organizations. Thus, reducing the impacts of power outage has become a key agenda in business continuity planning. Back-up or stand-by generators are among the most well known measures taken by power consumers to tackle the power outage problem. Approach: A survey was conducted to understand various aspects of power outage and the impacts of power outrage on businesses. In addition a choice experiment method was used to derive businesses’ preferences for different power outage mitigation measures that would have a range of prices, space requirements, air and noise pollution as well as mobility attributes using a sample of Canadian businesses located in the . Sample was drawn from businesses operating in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA and surrounding communities in Ontario, Canada. Results: It was found that majority of businesses have experienced and unconvinced by power outage and consider it to be a major risk to their operations. Production loss, data loss, damage to equipment and loss of lighting are the most significant sources for inconveniences caused by the power outages. It was found that a considerable number of businesses have not taken appropriate measures to mitigate this risk. Estimations from the responses revealed that sample businesses had a positive willingness to pay for power outage reduction and that businesses prefer power outage mitigation measures that are least costly, have low levels of air and noise pollution and occupy smaller spaces respectively. Conclusion: An uninterrupted power supply is an important element of business continuity in today’s business world. Although many businesses are not fully prepared against power outages, they are willing to pay for low cost and low pollution power outage mitigation measures.

  13. Special Issue: Risk Management Challenges: Mitigate the Risk from Natural Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas Paton

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Within minutes of the March 2011 earthquake in Japan, news media provided unprecedented coverage of an unfolding natural catastrophe. Events such as this place natural disasters firmly in the public eye but only for a short time. It falls to the research community to learn the lessons offered by these events and turn them into opportunities for developing more effective risk management and mitigation strategies and identifying the factors that contribute to the vulnerability and resilience of communities and response and recovery agencies. Disasters such as the Japanese tsunami also highlight the ever-present need for systematic, rigorous research into the risk posed by natural hazards and how these risks can be managed. Of course it is vital to ensure that the findings from such research endeavours are disseminated to those who can use the findings.

  14. Academy of Program/Project & Engineering Leadership Orbital Debris Management and Risk Mitigation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The NASA Academy of Program/Project & Engineering Leadership (APPEL) is excited to announce the public release of Orbital Debris Management and Risk Mitigation,...

  15. Academy of Program/Project & Engineering Leadership Orbital Debris Management and Risk Mitigation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration The NASA Academy of Program/Project & Engineering Leadership (APPEL) is excited to announce the public release of Orbital Debris Management and Risk Mitigation,...

  16. Measuring your radon risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In its annual report for 1992/93, the NRPB has warned that tens of thousands of UK employees may be exposed to high levels of radon at work. In addition to those who work underground, employees at risk of radon-induced lung cancer are typically those who spend long periods indoors. This article reviews the implications for all employers especially those in low or unknown levels of radon who resist taking measurements in the belief that by not measuring, they are not liable. (UK)

  17. Mitigating Corporate Water Risk: Financial Market Tools and Supply Management Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendy M. Larson

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available A decision framework for business water-risk response is proposed that considers financial instruments and supply management strategies. Based on available and emergent programmes, companies in the agricultural, commodities, and energy sectors may choose to hedge against financial risks by purchasing futures contracts or insurance products. These strategies address financial impacts such as revenue protection due to scarcity and disruption of direct operations or in the supply chain, but they do not directly serve to maintain available supplies to continue production. In contrast, companies can undertake actions in the watershed to enhance supply reliability and/or they can reduce demand to mitigate risk. Intermediate strategies such as purchasing of water rights or water trading involving financial transactions change the allocation of water but do not reduce overall watershed demand or increase water supply. The financial services industry is playing an increasingly important role, by considering how water risks impact decision making on corporate growth and market valuation, corporate creditworthiness, and bond rating. Risk assessment informed by Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR measures is described, and the role of the financial services industry is characterised. A corporate decision framework is discussed in the context of water resources management strategies under complex uncertainties.

  18. Meteorological Hazard Assessment and Risk Mitigation in Rwanda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nduwayezu, Emmanuel; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Bugnon, Pierre-Charles; Nsengiyumva, Jean-Baptiste; Horton, Pascal; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2015-04-01

    Between 10 and 13 April 2012, heavy rains hit sectors adjacent to the Vulcanoes National Park (Musanze District in the Northern Province and Nyabihu and Rubavu Districts in the Western Province of RWANDA), causing floods that affected about 11,000 persons. Flooding caused deaths and injuries among the affected population, and extensive damage to houses and properties. 348 houses were destroyed and 446 were partially damaged or have been underwater for several days. Families were forced to leave their flooded homes and seek temporal accommodation with their neighbors, often in overcrowded places. Along the West-northern border of RWANDA, Virunga mountain range consists of 6 major volcanoes. Mount Karisimbi is the highest volcano at 4507m. The oldest mountain is mount Sabyinyo which rises 3634m. The hydraulic network in Musanze District is formed by temporary torrents and permanent watercourses. Torrents surge during strong storms, and are provoked by water coming downhill from the volcanoes, some 20 km away. This area is periodically affected by flooding and landslides because of heavy rain (Rwanda has 2 rainy seasons from February to April and from September to November each year in general and 2 dry seasons) striking the Volcano National Park. Rain water creates big water channels (in already known torrents or new ones) that impact communities, agricultural soils and crop yields. This project aims at identifying hazardous and risky areas by producing susceptibility maps for floods, debris flow and landslides over this sector. Susceptibility maps are being drawn using field observations, during and after the 2012 events, and an empirical model of propagation for regional susceptibility assessments of debris flows (Flow-R). Input data are 10m and 30m resolution DEMs, satellite images, hydrographic network, and some information on geological substratum and soil occupation. Combining susceptibility maps with infrastructures, houses and population density maps will be used in identifying the most risky areas. Finally, based on practical experiences in this kind of field and produced documents some recommendations for low-cost mitigation measures will be proposed. Reference: MIDIMAR, Impacts of floods and landslides on socio-economic development profile. Case study: Musanze District. Kigali, June 2012.

  19. Assessment of GHG mitigation technology measures in Ukraine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raptsoun, N.; Parasiouk, N.

    1996-12-31

    In June 1992 the representatives of 176 countries including Ukraine met in Rio de Janeiro at the UN Conference to coordinate its efforts in protecting and guarding the environment. Signature of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change by around 150 countries indicates that climate change is potentially a major threat to the world`s environment and economic development. The project {open_quotes}Country Study on Climate Change in Ukraine{close_quotes} coordinated by the Agency for Rational Energy Use and Ecology (ARENIA-ECO) and supported by the US Country Studies Program Support for Climate Change Studies. The aim of the project is to make the information related to climate change in Ukraine available for the world community by using the potential of Ukrainian research institutes for further concerted actions to solve the problem of climate change on the global scale. The project consists of four elements: (1) the development of the GHG Inventory in Ukraine; (2) assessments of ecosystems-vulnerability to climate change and adaptation options; and (3) mitigation options analysis; (4) public education and outreach activities. This paper contains the main results of the third element for the energy and non-energy sectors. Main tasks of the third element were: (1) to select, test and describe or develop the methodology for mitigation options assessment; (2) to analyze the main sources of GHG emissions in Ukraine; (3) to give the macro economic analysis of Ukrainian development and the development of main economical sectors industry, energy, transport, residential, forestry and agriculture; (4) to forecast GHG emissions for different scenarios of the economic development; and (5) to analyze the main measures to mitigate climate change.

  20. Development of a harmonized risk mitigation toolbox dedicated to environmental risks of pesticides in farmland in Europe: outcome of the MAgPIE workshop

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alix, A.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk mitigation measures are a key component in designing conditions of use of pesticides in crop protection. A 2-step workshop was organized under the auspices of SETAC and the European Commission and gathered risk assessors and risk managers of 21 European countries, industry, academia and agronomical advisors/extension services, in order to provide European regulatory authorities with a toolbox of risk mitigation measures designed to reduce environmental risks of pesticides used in agriculture, and thus contribute to a better harmonization within Europe in the area. The workshop gathered an inventory of the risk mitigation tools for pesticides being implemented or in development in European countries. The inventory was discussed in order to identify the most promising tools for a harmonized toolbox in the European area. The discussions concerned the level of confidence in the technical data on which the tools identified rely, possible regulatory hurdles, expectations as regards the implementation of these tools by farmers and links with risk assessment. Finally, this workshop was a first step towards a network gathering all stakeholders, i.e. experts from national authorities, research sector, industry and farmers, to share information and further develop this toolbox. This paper presents an outline of the content of the toolbox with an emphasis on spray drift reducing techniques, in line with the discussions ongoing in the SPISE workshop.

  1. Implementation of equity in resource allocation for regional earthquake risk mitigation using two-stage stochastic programming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zolfaghari, Mohammad R; Peyghaleh, Elnaz

    2015-03-01

    This article presents a new methodology to implement the concept of equity in regional earthquake risk mitigation programs using an optimization framework. It presents a framework that could be used by decisionmakers (government and authorities) to structure budget allocation strategy toward different seismic risk mitigation measures, i.e., structural retrofitting for different building structural types in different locations and planning horizons. A two-stage stochastic model is developed here to seek optimal mitigation measures based on minimizing mitigation expenditures, reconstruction expenditures, and especially large losses in highly seismically active countries. To consider fairness in the distribution of financial resources among different groups of people, the equity concept is incorporated using constraints in model formulation. These constraints limit inequity to the user-defined level to achieve the equity-efficiency tradeoff in the decision-making process. To present practical application of the proposed model, it is applied to a pilot area in Tehran, the capital city of Iran. Building stocks, structural vulnerability functions, and regional seismic hazard characteristics are incorporated to compile a probabilistic seismic risk model for the pilot area. Results illustrate the variation of mitigation expenditures by location and structural type for buildings. These expenditures are sensitive to the amount of available budget and equity consideration for the constant risk aversion. Most significantly, equity is more easily achieved if the budget is unlimited. Conversely, increasing equity where the budget is limited decreases the efficiency. The risk-return tradeoff, equity-reconstruction expenditures tradeoff, and variation of per-capita expected earthquake loss in different income classes are also presented. PMID:25676412

  2. Mitigating the effects of measurement noise on Granger causality

    CERN Document Server

    Nalatore, Hariharan; Ding, Mingzhou

    2007-01-01

    Computing Granger causal relations among bivariate experimentally observed time series has received increasing attention over the past few years. Such causal relations, if correctly estimated, can yield significant insights into the dynamical organization of the system being investigated. Since experimental measurements are inevitably contaminated by noise, it is thus important to understand the effects of such noise on Granger causality estimation. The first goal of this paper is to provide an analytical and numerical analysis of this problem. Specifically, we show that, due to noise contamination, (1) spurious causality between two measured variables can arise and (2) true causality can be suppressed. The second goal of the paper is to provide a denoising strategy to mitigate this problem. Specifically, we propose a denoising algorithm based on the combined use of the Kalman filter theory and the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the den...

  3. Atmospheric Effects on InSAR Measurements and Their Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang-ping Long

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR is a powerful technology for observing the Earth surface, especially for mapping the Earth's topography and deformations. InSAR measurements are however often significantly affected by the atmosphere as the radar signals propagate through the atmosphere whose state varies both in space and in time. Great efforts have been made in recent years to better understand the properties of the atmospheric effects and to develop methods for mitigating the effects. This paper provides a systematic review of the work carried out in this area. The basic principles of atmospheric effects on repeat-pass InSAR are first introduced. The studies on the properties of the atmospheric effects, including the magnitudes of the effects determined in the various parts of the world, the spectra of the atmospheric effects, the isotropic properties and the statistical distributions of the effects, are then discussed. The various methods developed for mitigating the atmospheric effects are then reviewed, including the methods that are based on PSInSAR processing, the methods that are based on interferogram modeling, and those that are based on external data such as GPS observations, ground meteorological data, and satellite data including those from the MODIS and MERIS. Two examples that use MODIS and MERIS data respectively to calibrate atmospheric effects on InSAR are also given.

  4. Industrialized watersheds have elevated risk and limited opportunities to mitigate risk through water trading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheila M.W. Reddy

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Businesses are increasingly concerned about water scarcity and its financial impacts, as well as competing needs of other stakeholders and ecosystems. Industrialized watersheds may be at more serious risk from water scarcity than previously understood because industrial and municipal users have inelastic demand and a high value for water. Previous water risk assessments have failed to sufficiently capture these economic aspects of water risk. We illustrate how hydro-economic modeling can be used to improve water risk assessments at a basin scale and we apply the methodology to the industrialized Brazos River Basin (85% municipal and industrial withdrawals and consider implications for The Dow Chemical Company׳s Freeport Operations in Texas, US. Brazos water right holders pay only operating and maintenance costs for water during normal periods; however, when shortages occur, leasing stored water or reducing production may be the only mitigation option in the short-run. Modeling of water shortages and the theoretical cost of leasing water under nine combined scenarios of demand growth and climate change suggests that water lease prices to industry could increase by 9–13X. At best, a more developed water rights and storage lease market could result in lower lease prices (2–3X; however, given that transactions would be limited it is more likely that prices would still increase by 4–13X. These results suggest that markets are unlikely to be a robust solution for the Brazos because, in contrast to other watersheds in the Western US, there is little reliable water to trade from low value users (agricultural to high value users (industry and municipalities. Looking at demand trends across the contiguous US as an indicator of water risk, 2% of watersheds have municipal and industrial demands that outstrip total surface and ground water supplies and in these watersheds industry has historically paid higher lease prices for water. This study provides new ways for businesses to characterize water risk and forecast water prices that uncovers hidden water risk and highlights the positive but diminished mitigating effects of water markets in a highly industrialized basin.

  5. SUPPLY CHAIN RISK MANAGEMENT AND ITS MITIGATION IN A FOOD INDUSTRY

    OpenAIRE

    Diabat, Ali; Kannan, Prof. Govindan; Panikar, Vinay

    2011-01-01

    Abstract The food supply chain is the domain in this work which suffers a lot of uncertainty in its functioning. The paper discusses the various research works in the area of Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM). The main objective of the proposed work is to create a model which analyzes the various risks involved in a food supply chain with the help of Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) tool. The types of risks are clustered in five categories and the risk mitigation is discuss...

  6. Risk mitigation strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goede, A.P.H., E-mail: A.P.H.Goede@Rijnhuizen.nl [FOM-Institute for Plasma Physics Rijnhuizen, Association EURATOM-FOM, Partner in the Trilateral Euregio Cluster, PO Box 1207, 3430 BE Nieuwegein (Netherlands); Bongers, W.A.; Elzendoorn, B.S.Q.; Graswinckel, M.F.; Baar, M.R. de [FOM-Institute for Plasma Physics Rijnhuizen, Association EURATOM-FOM, Partner in the Trilateral Euregio Cluster, PO Box 1207, 3430 BE Nieuwegein (Netherlands)

    2010-12-15

    A basic requirement for ITER equipment to meet is a high level of reliability, because ITER operation time is precious and radioactive operation leaves limited scope for repair. In order to reduce the risk of failure during ITER operation an effective risk mitigation strategy is necessary. This paper presents such strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher (ECUPL). A preliminary ECUPL risk analysis identifies possible failure modes. A probabilistic risk assessment quantifies the risk of failure using a 4 x 4 impact-likelihood matrix. Impact is quantified through technical, cost and schedule elements. Likelihood depends on the risk mitigation strategy adopted. A cost benefit analysis determines the most cost effective risk mitigation strategy. An essential element in risk mitigation is the testing of equipment prior to installation on the ITER machine. This paper argues the need for low- and highpower millimetre wave tests carried out on the fully assembled ECUPL. It presents a conceptual design for a dedicated on-site test bed that can handle 2 of 8 microwave beams at 2 MW long pulse operation.

  7. Risk mitigation strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A basic requirement for ITER equipment to meet is a high level of reliability, because ITER operation time is precious and radioactive operation leaves limited scope for repair. In order to reduce the risk of failure during ITER operation an effective risk mitigation strategy is necessary. This paper presents such strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher (ECUPL). A preliminary ECUPL risk analysis identifies possible failure modes. A probabilistic risk assessment quantifies the risk of failure using a 4 x 4 impact-likelihood matrix. Impact is quantified through technical, cost and schedule elements. Likelihood depends on the risk mitigation strategy adopted. A cost benefit analysis determines the most cost effective risk mitigation strategy. An essential element in risk mitigation is the testing of equipment prior to installation on the ITER machine. This paper argues the need for low- and highpower millimetre wave tests carried out on the fully assembled ECUPL. It presents a conceptual design for a dedicated on-site test bed that can handle 2 of 8 microwave beams at 2 MW long pulse operation.

  8. COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES: COMMUNITY DISASTER KNOWLEDGE, SOCIAL CAPITAL, PREPAREDNESS AND MITIGATION MEASURES ENHANCE COASTAL COMMUNITY RESILIENCE TO NATURAL DISASTERS

    OpenAIRE

    James, S.; M. Joseph Irudayaraj

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the strategies for enhancing resilience of a coastal community to natural disasters by effective disaster preparedness and mitigation measures. It elaborates the importance of capacity building and improved infrastructure performance. Participatory Disaster Risk Assessment (PDRA) is emphasised to understand the diverse vulnerabilities and resilience of the coastal communities. This paper presents a unique approach to integrate the existing capacities, ...

  9. Risk Measures and Portfolio Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priscilla Serwaa Nkyira Gambrah

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we investigate portfolio optimization under Value at Risk, Average Value at Risk and Limited Expected Loss constraints in a continuous time framework, where stocks follow a geometric Brownian motion. Analytic expressions for Value at Risk, Average Value at Risk and Limited Expected Loss are derived. We solve the problem of minimizing risk measures applied to portfolios. Moreover, the portfolio’s expected return is maximized subject to the aforementioned risk measures. We illustrate the effect of these risk measures on portfolio optimization by using numerical experiments.

  10. Mitigation of BWR ATWS risk: a probabilistic assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The results of PRAs performed over the last 10 years have demonstrated that BWR accident risk is dominated by transient events. Transients followed by a failure to scram are major contributors to transient-induced BWR accident risks. In the Reactor Safety Study (RSS), failure to scram following a transient contributed approximately 50 percent of the total transient-induced risk. In the Grand Gulf 1 PRA, nearly 20 percent of the transient-caused risk was due to failure to scram. Although BWR reactor protection systems are highly reliable and fully redundant, several system failures over the years have resulted in partial scrams

  11. A risk-mitigation approach to the management of induced seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bommer, Julian J.; Crowley, Helen; Pinho, Rui

    2015-04-01

    Earthquakes may be induced by a wide range of anthropogenic activities such as mining, fluid injection and extraction, and hydraulic fracturing. In recent years, the increased occurrence of induced seismicity and the impact of some of these earthquakes on the built environment have heightened both public concern and regulatory scrutiny, motivating the need for a framework for the management of induced seismicity. Efforts to develop systems to enable control of seismicity have not yet resulted in solutions that can be applied with confidence in most cases. The more rational approach proposed herein is based on applying the same risk quantification and mitigation measures that are applied to the hazard from natural seismicity. This framework allows informed decision-making regarding the conduct of anthropogenic activities that may cause earthquakes. The consequent risk, if related to non-structural damage (when re-location is not an option), can be addressed by appropriate financial compensation. If the risk poses a threat to life and limb, then it may be reduced through the application of strengthening measures in the built environment—the cost of which can be balanced against the economic benefits of the activity in question—rather than attempting to ensure that some threshold on earthquake magnitude or ground-shaking amplitude is not exceeded. However, because of the specific characteristics of induced earthquakes—which may occur in regions with little or no natural seismicity—the procedures used in standard earthquake engineering need adaptation and modification for application to induced seismicity.

  12. Risk Measures in Quantitative Finance

    OpenAIRE

    Sovan Mitra

    2009-01-01

    This paper was presented and written for two seminars: a national UK University Risk Conference and a Risk Management industry workshop. The target audience is therefore a cross section of Academics and industry professionals. The current ongoing global credit crunch has highlighted the importance of risk measurement in Finance to companies and regulators alike. Despite risk measurement's central importance to risk management, few papers exist reviewing them or following their evolution from ...

  13. VALUE AT RISK - CORPORATE RISK MEASUREMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anis Cecilia-Nicoleta

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The notion of 'risk' is used in a number of sciences. The Faculty of Law studies the risk depending on its legality. The Accident Theory applies this term to describe the damage and the disasters. One can find studies on the risks in the works of psychology, philosophy, medicine and within each of these areas the study of the risk is based on the given science subject and, of course, on their methods and approaches. Such a variety of risk study is explained by the diversity of this phenomenon. Under the market economy conditions, the risk is an essential component of any economic agent management policy, of the approach developed by this one, a strategy that depends almost entirely on individual ability and capacity to anticipate his evolution and to exploit his opportunities, assuming a so-called 'risk of business failure.' There are several ways to measure the risks in projects, one of the most used methods to measure this being the Value at Risk(VaR. Value at Risk (VaR was made famous by JP Morgan in the mid 1990s, by introducing the RiskMetrics approach, and hence, by far, has been sanctioned by several Governing Bodies throughout the world bank. In short, it measures the value of risk capital stocks in a given period at a certain probability of loss. This measurement can be modified for risk applications through, for example, the potential loss values affirmation in a certain amount of time during the economic life of the project- clearly, a project with a lower VaR is better. It should be noted that it is not always possible or advisable for a company to limit itself to the remote analysis of each risk because the risks and their effects are interdependent and constitute a system .In addition, there are risks which, in combination with other risks, tend to produce effects which they would not have caused by themselves and risks that tend to offset and even cancel each other out.

  14. INTERNAL AUDIT AND ITS APPROACH TO THE RISK MITIGATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VADIM BENE

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This thesis is analyzing the modern role of the internal audit in corporate(mainly banking structures. It describes the changes made in the social role ofauditing during the years and emphasizes the internal audits risk managementfunction, rather than just control function. Attention is given to the methodology used,especially to the currently most widespread risk-based auditing approach. Also one ofthe most recent approaches to auditing so called continuous auditing - is brieflydescribed and the possibilities of its implementation into the risk-based framework areoutlined.

  15. Measuring Credit Spread Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Campbell-Pownall, Rachel; Huisman, Ronald

    2002-01-01

    It is widely known that the small but looming possibility of default renders the expected return distribution for financial products containing credit risk to be highly skewed and fat tailed. In this paper we apply recent techniques developed for incorporating the additional risk faced by changes in swap spreads. Using data from the US, UK, Germany, and Japan, we find that the risk faced from large spread widenings and tightenings is grossly underestimated. Estimation of swap spread risk is d...

  16. Taming Trojan Horses: Identifying and Mitigating Corporate Social Responsibility Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Heugens, Pursey; Dentchev, Nikolay

    2007-01-01

    textabstractOrganizations are exposed to increasing pressures from their constituents to integrate corporate social responsibility (CSR) principles into their ongoing business practices. But accepting new and potentially open-ended commitments is not a harmless exercise, and companies may well expose themselves to serious risks when embracing such principles. To identify these risks, we conducted two naturalistic studies: one exploratory, the other corroborative. The results show that CSR ado...

  17. Taming Trojan Horses: Identifying and Mitigating Corporate Social Responsibility Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Heugens, Pursey; Dentchev, Nikolay

    2007-01-01

    Organizations are exposed to increasing pressures from their constituents to integrate corporate social responsibility (CSR) principles into their ongoing business practices. But accepting new and potentially open-ended commitments is not a harmless exercise, and companies may well expose themselves to serious risks when embracing such principles. To identify these risks, we conducted two naturalistic studies: one exploratory, the other corroborative. The results show that CSR adoption is ass...

  18. Mitigating corporate water risk: Financial market tools and supply management

    OpenAIRE

    Wendy M. Larson; Paul L. Freedman; Viktor Passinsky; Edward Grubb; Peter Adriaens

    2012-01-01

    A decision framework for business water-risk response is proposed that considers financial instruments and supply management strategies. Based on available and emergent programmes, companies in the agricultural, commodities, and energy sectors may choose to hedge against financial risks by purchasing futures contracts or insurance products. These strategies address financial impacts such as revenue protection due to scarcity and disruption of direct operations or in the supply chain, but they...

  19. Overview of mitigation policies and measures in the forestry sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathaye, J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab., CA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    In this paper the author addresses questions on how the forestry sector can make a contribution to the general problem of greenhouse gases in the environment. Primarily this is in the form of carbon conservation and sequestering. There is a potential land area for conservation and sequestration estimated to be 700 Mha. The total carbon that could be sequestered and conserved globally by 2050 on this land is 60 - 87 GtC. Slowing deforestation, assisting regeneration, forestation and agroforestry are the primary mitigation measures for carbon conservation and sequestration. For long term success, enforcement to halt deforestation has to be accompained by economic and/or other benefits to the deforesters that equal or exceed their current remuneration. Making plantations a significant fuel for utility electricity generation will require higher biomass yields and thermal efficiency matching that of conventional plants. Significant reduction of global carbon emissions requires national governments to institute measures that provide local, national, economic and other benefits while conserving and sequestering carbon.

  20. Seismic Risk Mitigation of Historical Minarets Using SMA Wire Dampers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents the results of a research program sponsored by the European Commission through project WIND-CHIME (Wide Range Non-INtrusive Devices toward Conservation of HIstorical Monuments in the MEditerranean Area), in which the possibility of using advanced seismic protection technologies to preserve historical monuments in the Mediterranean area is investigated. In the current research, two outstanding Egyptian Mamluk-Style minarets, are investigated. The first is the southern minaret of Al-Sultaniya (1340 A.D, 739 Hijri Date (H.D.)), the second is the minaret of Qusun minaret (1337 A.D, 736 H.D.), both located within the city of Cairo. Based on previous studies on the minarets by the authors, a seismic retrofit technique is proposed. The technique utilizes shape memory alloy (SMA) wires as dampers for the upper, more flexible, parts of the minarets in addition to vertical pre-stressing of the lower parts found to be prone to tensile cracking under ground excitation. The effectiveness of the proposed technique is numerically evaluated via nonlinear transient dynamic analyses. The results indicate the effectiveness of the technique in mitigating the seismic hazard, demonstrated by the effective reduction in stresses and in dynamic response

  1. Societal transformation and adaptation necessary to manage dynamics in flood hazard and risk mitigation (TRANS-ADAPT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Sven; Thaler, Thomas; Bonnefond, Mathieu; Clarke, Darren; Driessen, Peter; Hegger, Dries; Gatien-Tournat, Amandine; Gralepois, Mathilde; Fournier, Marie; Mees, Heleen; Murphy, Conor; Servain-Courant, Sylvie

    2015-04-01

    Facing the challenges of climate change, this project aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. This proposal assesses societal transformations from the perspective of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. Yet each risk mitigation measure is built on a narrative of exchanges and relations between people and therefore may condition the outputs. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this project will focus on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. The policy dimension of adaptation, predominantly decisions on the societal admissible level of vulnerability and risk, will be evaluated by a human-environment interaction approach using multiple methods and the assessment of social capacities of stakeholders across scales. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. In addressing the relationship between these dimensions of adaptation on different temporal and spatial scales, this project is both scientifically innovative and policy relevant, thereby supporting climate policy needs in Europe towards a concept of risk governance. Key words: climate change adaptation; transformation; flood risk management; resilience; vulnerability; innovative bottom-up developments; multifunctional use

  2. Safety Planning Intervention: A Brief Intervention to Mitigate Suicide Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, Barbara; Brown, Gregory K.

    2012-01-01

    The usual care for suicidal patients who are seen in the emergency department (ED) and other emergency settings is to assess level of risk and refer to the appropriate level of care. Brief psychosocial interventions such as those administered to promote lower alcohol intake or to reduce domestic violence in the ED are not typically employed for…

  3. Mercury mitigative measures related to hydroelectric reservoirs. The La Grande Complex experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quebec Hydro's plan for mitigation of mercury contamination in fish and wildlife in the La Grande river basin was presented. The hazard and environmental threat posed by mercury contamination through flooding was described. Implications of mercury contamination for the Cree natives was discussed and provisions of the James Bay mercury agreement were described. Potential 'at source' remedial measures were described, including soil and vegetation removal, controlled burning of soils and vegetation, capping of flooded soils, lime or sulphite salt addition, sediment suspension, genetic manipulation of bacterial populations, selenium addition, nutrient addition, intensive fishing, and reservoir draining. Compensation measures were considered since no practical medium term remedial measures could be found. A case study of the Eastmain-1 Reservoir's $213 000 000 deforestation program was cited as a possible model. It was concluded that realistically, compensation produced the only feasible health risk reduction program, since none of the 'at source' remedial measure were technically or economically feasible. 24 refs

  4. An assessment of flood mitigation measures - "room for the river

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komma, J.; Blschl, G.; Habereder, C.

    2009-04-01

    In this paper we analyse the relative effect of different flood mitigation measures for the example of the Kamp catchment in Austria. The main idea is to decrease flood peaks through (a) retaining water in the landscape and (b) providing additional inundation areas along the main stream (room for the river). To increase the retention of excess rainfall in the landscape we introduced two different measures. One measure is the increase of water storage capacity in the study catchment through the change of land use from agriculture to forest. The second measure is the installation of many small sized retention basins without an outlet (micro ponds). The micro ponds are situated at the hill slopes to intercept surface runoff. In case of the room for the river scenario the additional retention volume is gained due to the installation of retention basins along the Kamp river and its tributary Zwettl. Three flood retention basins with culverts at each river are envisaged. The geometry of the bottom outlets is defined for design discharges in a way to gain the greatest flood peak reduction for large flood events (above a 100 yr flood). The study catchment at the Kamp river with a size of 622 km is located in north-eastern Austria. For the simulation of the different scenarios (retaining water in the landscape) a well calibrated continuous hydrologic model is available. The hydrological model consists of a spatially distributed soil moisture accounting scheme and a flood routing component. To analyse the effect of the room for the river scenario with retention basins along the river reaches a linked 1D/2D hydrodynamic model (TUFLOW) is used. In the river channels a one dimensional simulation is carried out. The flow conditions in the flood plains are represented by two dimensional model elements. The model domain incorporates 18 km of the Kamp and 12 km of the Zwettl river valley. For the assessment of the land use change scenario the hydrologic model parameters for wooded areas are transferred to areas that are currently not forested. Through higher storage capacities in the wooded areas the scenario of afforestation helps to reduce flood peaks. The micro ponds are represented in the hydrological model by a bucket storage component. It is filled by a fraction of the simulated direct runoff and drains into the groundwater with a constant percolation rate. For the scenarios of flood mitigation with retention basins along the river reaches three locations at the Kamp and three locations at the Zwettl river have been chosen for hypothetical retention basins or polders with bottom outlets. The main difference between the "room for the river" method and the "retaining water in the landscape" methods is the magnitude of the flood event for which the retention is maximised. For the case of retaining water in the landscape (either by land use change or microponds) the storage capacity obtained by these measures is filled at the beginning of the event. For small event magnitudes, the flood peak reduction is hence maximised. In the Kamp catchment, significant reductions in the flood peaks can be obtained when retention basins along the main stream are constructed and the flood plains are inundated. The main advantage of the room for the river methodology is that the polders/retention basins can be designed in a way that there is no retention for small flood discharges which leaves the full storage capacity for larger floods at the time of peak. In contrast, for the retaining water in the landscape measures, the storage is exhausted at an early stage of medium and large events, resulting in very small flood peak reductions.

  5. Airflow measurement techniques applied to radon mitigation problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During the past decade a multitude of diagnostic procedures associated with the evaluation of air infiltration and air leakage sites have been developed. The spirit of international cooperation and exchange of ideas within the AIC-AIVC conferences has greatly facilitated the adoption and use of these measurement techniques in the countries participating in Annex V. But wide application of such diagnostic methods are not limited to air infiltration alone. The subject of this paper concerns the ways to evaluate and improve radon reduction in buildings using diagnostic methods directly related to developments familiar to the AIVC. Radon problems are certainly not unique to the United States, and the methods described here have to a degree been applied by researchers of other countries faced with similar problems. The radon problem involves more than a harmful pollutant of the living spaces of our buildings -- it also involves energy to operate radon removal equipment and the loss of interior conditioned air as a direct result. The techniques used for air infiltration evaluation will be shown to be very useful in dealing with the radon mitigation challenge. 10 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab

  6. Long-term development and effectiveness of private flood mitigation measures: an analysis for the German part of the river Rhine

    OpenAIRE

    Bubeck, P.; Botzen, W. J. W.; Kreibich, H.; J. C. J. H. Aerts

    2012-01-01

    Flood mitigation measures implemented by private households have become an important component of contemporary integrated flood risk management in Germany and many other countries. Despite the growing responsibility of private households to contribute to flood damage reduction by means of private flood mitigation measures, knowledge on the long-term development of such measures, which indicates changes in vulnerability over time, and their effectiveness, is still scarce. To gain further insig...

  7. Supply Chain Risk Management : Identification, Evaluation and Mitigation Techniques

    OpenAIRE

    Musa, S.Nurmaya

    2012-01-01

    Supply chains have expanded rapidly over the decades, with the aim to increase productivity, lower costs and fulfil demands in emerging markets. The increasing complexity in a supply chain hinders visibility and consequently reduces one’s control over the process. Cases of disruption such as the ones faced by Ericsson and Enron, have shown that a risk event occurring at one point of the supply chain can greatly affect other members, when the disruption is not properly controlled. Supply chain...

  8. Risks evaluation and mitigation in the new energetic markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The central issue of debate was the need to align the energy sector's options and organization with changing global patterns of economic and social development, characterized by the increasing role played by the private sector, greater integration in the world economy, and new economic and social priorities such as efficiency, decentralization, deregulation, and a closer attention to environmental issues. The aim of the work was to evaluate the Brazilian electric power market risks and the their agents' relationship after the privatization advent

  9. An exploratory study on perceptions of seismic risk and mitigation in two districts of Istanbul.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eraybar, Korel; Okazaki, Kenji; Ilki, Alper

    2010-01-01

    Istanbul is one of the world's cities most vulnerable to seismic events. According to seismologists, the probability of a severe earthquake in the next 30 years is approximately 40 per cent. Following an outline of the seismicity of this vital Turkish city and a summary of current seismic risks and mitigation studies, this paper presents the results of a survey conducted in two districts of Istanbul, Avcilar and Bakirkoy. The survey comprised some 60 questions on the seismic risk perceptions of individuals and requested basic personal data, such as on age, education level, employment type, financial income, and gender. Despite various differences among the survey population, such as academic background and level of financial income, responses were surprisingly similar, especially in terms of having no plan for a safer house. The data may help those planning mitigation programmes and public awareness campaigns on preparedness and particularly mitigation in highly vulnerable regions. PMID:19624701

  10. Tsunami prevention and mitigation necessities and options derived from tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Steinmetz, T.; Mück, M.; Strunz, G.; Riedlinger, T.; Anwar, H. Z.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.

    2009-04-01

    Risk and vulnerability assessment is an important component of an effective End-to-End Tsunami Early Warning System and therefore contributes significantly to disaster risk reduction. Risk assessment is a key strategy to implement and design adequate disaster prevention and mitigation measures. The knowledge about expected tsunami hazard impacts, exposed elements, their susceptibility, coping and adaptation mechanisms is a precondition for the development of people-centred warning structures, local specific response and recovery policy planning. The developed risk assessment and its components reflect the disaster management cycle (disaster time line) and cover the early warning as well as the emergency response phase. Consequently the components hazard assessment, exposure (e.g. how many people/ critical facilities are affected?), susceptibility (e.g. are the people able to receive a tsunami warning?), coping capacity (are the people able to evacuate in time?) and recovery (are the people able to restore their livelihoods?) are addressed and quantified. Thereby the risk assessment encompasses three steps: (i) identifying the nature, location, intensity and probability of potential tsunami threats (hazard assessment); (ii) determining the existence and degree of exposure and susceptibility to those threats; and (iii) identifying the coping capacities and resources available to address or manage these threats. The paper presents results of the research work, which is conducted in the framework of the GITEWS project and the Joint Indonesian-German Working Group on Risk Modelling and Vulnerability Assessment. The assessment methodology applied follows a people-centred approach to deliver relevant risk and vulnerability information for the purposes of early warning and disaster management. The analyses are considering the entire coastal areas of Sumatra, Java and Bali facing the Sunda trench. Selected results and products like risk maps, guidelines, decision support information and other GIS products will be presented. The focus of the products is on the one hand to provide relevant risk assessment products as decision support to issue a tsunami warning within the early warning stage. On the other hand the maps and GIS products shall provide relevant information to enable local decision makers to act adequately concerning their local risks. It is shown that effective prevention and mitigation measures can be designed based on risk assessment results and information especially when used pro-active and beforehand a disaster strikes. The conducted hazard assessment provides the probability of an area to be affected by a tsunami threat divided into two ranked impact zones. The two divided impact zones directly relate to tsunami warning levels issued by the Early Warning Center and consequently enable the local decision maker to base their planning (e.g. evacuation) accordingly. Within the tsunami hazard assessment several hundred pre-computed tsunami scenarios are analysed. This is combined with statistical analysis of historical event data. Probabilities of tsunami occurrence considering probabilities of different earthquake magnitudes, occurrences of specific wave heights at coast and spatial inundation probability are computed. Hazard assessment is then combined with a comprehensive vulnerability assessment. Here deficits in e.g. people's ability to receive and understand a tsunami warning and deficits in their ability to respond adequately (evacuate on time) are quantified and are visualized for the respective coastal areas. Hereby socio-economic properties (determining peoples ability to understand a warning and to react) are combined with environmental conditions (land cover, slope, population density) to calculate the time needed to evacuate (reach a tsunami safe area derived through the hazard assessment). This is implemented using a newly developed GIS cost-distance weighting approach. For example, the amount of people affected in a certain area is dependent on expected tsunami intensity, inundated area, estimated tsunami arrival time and available time for evacuation. Referring to the Aceh 2004 Tsunami, an estimated amount of people affected (dead/injured) of 21000 for Kabubaten Aceh Jaya and 85000 for Kab. Banda Aceh is in a comparable range with reported values of 19661 and 78417 (JICA 2005) respectively. Hence the established methodology provides reliable estimates of people affected and people's ability to reach a safe area. Based on the spatial explicit detection of e.g. high tsunami risk areas (and the assessed root causes therefore), specific disaster risk reduction and early warning strategies can be designed. For example additional installation of technical warning dissemination device, community based preparedness and awareness programmes (education), structural and non-structural measures (e.g. land use conversion, coastal engineering), effective evacuation, contingency and household recovery aid planning can be employed and/or optimized within high tsunami risk areas as a first priority. In the context of early warning, spatially distributed information like degree of expected hazard impact, exposure of critical facilities (e.g. hospitals, schools), potential people dead/injured depending on available response times, location of safe and shelter areas can be disseminated and used for decision making. Keywords: Tsunami risk, hazard and vulnerability assessment, early warning, tsunami mitigation and prevention, Indonesia

  11. Investigating the formal countermeasures and informal strategies used to mitigate SPAD risk in train driving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naweed, Anjum; Rainbird, Sophia; Chapman, Janine

    2015-01-01

    Various countermeasures are used to mitigate signal passed at danger (SPAD) events on railways, yet they continue. While risk factors that destabilise cognitive processes have been identified, less has been published on the relationship between these factors and the informal strategies that drivers themselves adopt to reduce individual SPAD risk. This study aimed to address this gap and used a participative approach to collect and thematically analyse data from 28 drivers across eight rail organisations in Australia and New Zealand. The results showed not all formal countermeasures were considered effective, and identified several informal strategies. These aimed to reduce task disruption, service distortion and maintain connectedness to signals. While some evidenced redundancies in the task and cab, others did not reduce baseline risk. This paper explores the relationship between the established risks and identified strategies towards evaluating the utility of formal and informal mitigations. The research has application to the investigation of collision risk in all transport domains. Practitioner Summary: A participative approach was used to investigate SPAD mitigation techniques in train driving, and to explore risk-strategy relationship dynamics. Several informal strategies designed to reduce task disruption, service distortion and maintain signal connectedness were identified. While some evidenced redundancies in the task and cab, others did not reduce baseline risk. PMID:25597849

  12. Cloud computing in pharmaceutical R&D: business risks and mitigations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geiger, Karl

    2010-05-01

    Cloud computing provides information processing power and business services, delivering these services over the Internet from centrally hosted locations. Major technology corporations aim to supply these services to every sector of the economy. Deploying business processes 'in the cloud' requires special attention to the regulatory and business risks assumed when running on both hardware and software that are outside the direct control of a company. The identification of risks at the correct service level allows a good mitigation strategy to be selected. The pharmaceutical industry can take advantage of existing risk management strategies that have already been tested in the finance and electronic commerce sectors. In this review, the business risks associated with the use of cloud computing are discussed, and mitigations achieved through knowledge from securing services for electronic commerce and from good IT practice are highlighted. PMID:20443161

  13. Mitigating Real or Perceived Risks: A Pro-Active Approach for Dealing with Naysayers and Critics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schutte, Bart; Jones, Kevin

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews an approach to mitigating real or perceived risks from "Naysayers" and critics in developing and using the software tools available with web 2.0. Some of the issues are about the use of the tools, the ability of management to control the use of these tools, privacy issues and the time the people spend using these tools.

  14. Sandstone Relief Geohazards and their Mitigation: Rock Fall Risk Management in the Bohemian Switzerland National Park

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vařilová, Zuzana; Zvelebil, J.

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 44, - (2005), s. 53-58. ISSN 1682-5519. [Sandstone Landscapes in Europe. Past, Present and Future. International Conference on Sandstone Landscapes /2./. Vianden, 25.05.2005-28.05.2005] Keywords : sandstones * rock-slope instability * rock fall * risk evalution and mitigation * monitoring net * remedial works Subject RIV: DO - Wilderness Conservation

  15. COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES: COMMUNITY DISASTER KNOWLEDGE, SOCIAL CAPITAL, PREPAREDNESS AND MITIGATION MEASURES ENHANCE COASTAL COMMUNITY RESILIENCE TO NATURAL DISASTERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. James

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the strategies for enhancing resilience of a coastal community to natural disasters by effective disaster preparedness and mitigation measures. It elaborates the importance of capacity building and improved infrastructure performance. Participatory Disaster Risk Assessment (PDRA is emphasised to understand the diverse vulnerabilities and resilience of the coastal communities. This paper presents a unique approach to integrate the existing capacities, capacities required and important social and economic activities with the key strategies of community disaster resilience. The study focuses on enhancement of community knowledge in disaster management, community social capital, integrated disaster management plan, preparedness and recovery and disaster mitigation measures implemented in the coastal villages for effectively managing the disaster situations. There is a greater emphasis on the need for involving multisectoral and multidisciplinary sections of the community in in disaster preparedness and capacities required for minimizing social and economic impact which will further help in developing mitigation strategies.

  16. Space Shuttle Systems Engineering Processes for Liftoff Debris Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Michael; Riley, Christopher

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the systems engineering process designed to reduce the risk from debris during Space Shuttle Launching. This process begins the day of launch from the tanking to the vehicle tower clearance. Other debris risks (i.e., Ascent, and micrometeoroid orbital debit) are mentioned) but are not the subject of this presentation. The Liftoff debris systems engineering process and an example of how it works are reviewed (i.e.,STS-119 revealed a bolt liberation trend on the Fixed Service Structure (FSS) 275 level elevator room). The process includes preparation of a Certification of Flight Readiness (CoFR) that includes (1) Lift-off debris from previous mission dispositioned, (2) Flight acceptance rationale has been provided for Lift-off debris sources/causes (3) Lift-off debris mission support documentation, processes and tools are in place for the up-coming mission. The process includes a liftoff debris data collection that occurs after each launch. This includes a post launch walkdown, that records each liftoff debris, and the entry of the debris into a database, it also includes a review of the imagery from the launch, and a review of the instrumentation data. There is also a review of the debris transport analysis process, that includes temporal and spatial framework and a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis. which incorporates a debris transport analyses (DTA), debris materials and impact tests, and impact analyses.

  17. Hydraulic analysis of measures for flood mitigation in floodplain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentova, J.; Valenta, P.; Weyskrabova, L.; Dostal, T.

    2012-04-01

    The question of possible flood control and flood mitigation measures and their effects is still challenging. While the effect of purely technical flood control measures such as dams or levees is sufficiently described by using any of widely spread or more specific models, the effectiveness of close-to-nature ones (river restoration, appropriate land use, landscape structure regeneration, etc.) is not adequately verified and quantified. On that account, the benefits and feasibility of integration of the natural potential of floodplains to absorb and transform flood wave is being discussed. In addition, there are many side benefits of close-to-nature measures which are hard to evaluate and include into decision making processes. This contribution presents a part of the study related to river and floodplain restoration and revitalization measures in catchments and their flood-control effect. In the study the possibilities of using one-dimensional (HEC-RAS) and two-dimensional hydraulic mathematical models (FAST2D, DIFEM2D) of steady and unsteady flow for estimation of transformation effects of a floodplain were compared. The comparison of used models was made with respect to computed results and also to the availability of input data, mathematical stability, processes and accuracy demands and time requirements. The above mentioned methods of hydraulic modelling were applied to three case study localities in the Czech Republic. The parts of river channels and their floodplain differ in terms of morphology, river channel form and training situation and land-use. Case study areas were selected to represent the main types of floodplains within the Czech Republic for their further classification related to flood wave transformation potential. The transformation effect is compared not only for the natural state of the floodplain, but also for various theoretical scenarios in each locality. Keywords Hydraulic modelling, flood control, floodplain, storage capacity, river restoration Acknowledgement This paper was created within the project NIVA "Water Retention in Floodplains and Ways of Increasing Water Retention" QH82078, and within Research Project No. MSM6840770002 "Revitalization of water system of the landscape and urban areas under heavy anthropogenic changes" and supported by the Grant Agency of the Czech Technical University in Prague, grant No. SGS10/240/OHK1/3T/11.

  18. Evaluating alternatives for mitigating Cryptosporidium risk and generating environmental service benefits in water supply catchments

    OpenAIRE

    Kandulu, John; Bryan, Brett

    2009-01-01

    Evaluations of pathogen management options have focussed on assessing relative removal effectiveness as a basis for prioritising alternative management investment decisions. Using a case study of the Myponga catchment, South Australia, this paper presents results of a cost-effectiveness risk analysis of 13 catchment- and treatment-based water quality management alternatives for mitigating Cryptosporidium risk. A range of costs and benefits including set-up and operating costs, farm business c...

  19. Cultural, Demographic, and Environmental Influences on Risk Perception and Mitigation in the Wildland-Urban Interface

    OpenAIRE

    Chakreeyarat, Voravee Saengawut

    2015-01-01

    Wildfire hazard is increasing in much of the United States, posing a threat to human communities and natural ecosystem services, especially in areas at the wildland-urban interface. There are steps people can take to reduce wildfire hazard, but often they are not used. Understanding and addressing human perceptions of wildfire risk and of risk-mitigating behaviors requires knowledge of both social and ecological systems. To better understand this complex issue, three types of factors must be ...

  20. Perceptions of climate change risks and mitigation behaviors : understanding inconsistencies between representations and action

    OpenAIRE

    Lázaro, Alexandra; Cabecinhas, Rosa, ed. lit; Carvalho, Anabela

    2008-01-01

    Citizens’ awareness of risks and responsibilities regarding climate change suggests that they can see themselves as agents of social change both in their daily lives and as part of a knowledgeable public opinion. However, research has shown that individual behavior to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions is not consistent with such awareness. A survey study with a sample of Portuguese university students investigated the relation between knowledge of climate change and perception of risks, attri...

  1. Risk mitigation: Planning and emergency; La gestione del rischio: Dall`emergenza al piano

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menoni, Scira [Politecnico di Milano, Milan (Italy). Dipt. di Scienze del Territorio

    1997-10-01

    In the last years many scholars have recognized what an important tool for risk mitigation land use planning is. Looking at risk from a planner`s perspective requires to adopt a systemic approach, according to which it`s impossible to isolate risky objects from their geographical and social environment. Furthermore a systemic approach fosters planners take into account the chains of potential failures that might affect both punctual and linear sources of damage, that is not only one risk at a time, but multiple risks which jeopardize the correct working of plants, networks, and of entire metropolitan and regional areas.

  2. Coherent measurement of factor risks

    CERN Document Server

    Cherny, A S; Cherny, Alexander S.; Madan, Dilip B.

    2006-01-01

    We propose a new procedure for the risk measurement of large portfolios. It employs the following objects as the building blocks: - coherent risk measures introduced by Artzner, Delbaen, Eber, and Heath; - factor risk measures introduced in this paper, which assess the risks driven by particular factors like the price of oil, S&P500 index, or the credit spread; - risk contributions and factor risk contributions, which provide a coherent alternative to the sensitivity coefficients. We also propose two particular classes of coherent risk measures called Alpha V@R and Beta V@R, for which all the objects described above admit an extremely simple empirical estimation procedure. This procedure uses no model assumptions on the structure of the price evolution. Moreover, we consider the problem of the risk management on a firm's level. It is shown that if the risk limits are imposed on the risk contributions of the desks to the overall risk of the firm (rather than on their outstanding risks) and the desks are al...

  3. Uses of risk importance measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk importance measures provide an understandable and practical way of presenting probabilistic safety analysis results which too often tend to remain abstract numbers without real insight into the content. The report clarifies the definitions, relationships and interpretations of the three most basic measures: Risk increase factor, risk decrease factor, and fractional contribution. The above three measures already cover the main types of risk importance measures. Many other importance measures presented in literature are close variants to some of these three measures. They are related in many cases so that, for a technical system considered, the two other measures can be derived from the one calculated first. However, the practical interpretations are different, and hence each three measures have their own uses and rights to existence. The fundamental aspect of importance measures is, that they express some specific influence of a basic event on the total risk. The basic failure or error events are the elements from which the reliability and risk models are constituted. The importance measures are relative, which is an advantage compared to absolute risk numbers, due to insensitivity with respect to quantification uncertainties. Therefore they are particularly adapted to give first hand guidance where to focus main interest from the system's risk and reliability point of view and wherefrom to continue the analysis with more sophisticated methods requiring more effort

  4. An Efficient Approach towards Mitigating Soft Errors Risks

    CERN Document Server

    Sadi, Muhammad Sheikh; Uddin, Md Nazim; Jrjens, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Smaller feature size, higher clock frequency and lower power consumption are of core concerns of today's nano-technology, which has been resulted by continuous downscaling of CMOS technologies. The resultant 'device shrinking' reduces the soft error tolerance of the VLSI circuits, as very little energy is needed to change their states. Safety critical systems are very sensitive to soft errors. A bit flip due to soft error can change the value of critical variable and consequently the system control flow can completely be changed which leads to system failure. To minimize soft error risks, a novel methodology is proposed to detect and recover from soft errors considering only 'critical code blocks' and 'critical variables' rather than considering all variables and/or blocks in the whole program. The proposed method shortens space and time overhead in comparison to existing dominant approaches.

  5. Cyanotoxin management and human health risk mitigation in recreational waters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koreivienė, Judita; Anne, Olga; Kasperovičienė, Jūratė; Burškytė, Vilma

    2014-07-01

    The occurrence and severity of harmful cyanobacterial or blue-green algal blooms (HABs) have increased in recent decades, posing a serious threat of illness to humans. In some countries, water contaminated with cyanotoxins that is used for drinking or haemodialysis has posed a particularly serious risk. However, it is now recognized that recreational exposure to natural toxins by skin contact, accidental swallowing of water or inhalation can also cause a wide range of acute or chronic illnesses. In this review, we focus on the importance of cyanotoxin management in recreational waters. The symptoms related with HAB poisonings, the recommended safety concentrations limit for cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins in such waters, as well as early health hazard indicators of their presence and their monitoring are all discussed. We also present in this review an overview of the methods developed in recent decades for eliminating cyanobacteria and the toxic compounds that they produce. PMID:24664523

  6. Building damage classification and loss assessment for risk mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this paper is to present a uniform procedure for examining and reporting building damage both in urban and in rural areas so that a data bank on earthquake effects might be established and used for the effective estimation of economic losses. Assessment of direct economic losses is illustrated by a summary presentation of earthquake damage classification performed on 16,478 residential buildings and on all 57,640 buildings damaged by the earthquake of July 26, 1963 in Skopje and April 15, 1979 in Montenegro earthquakes, respectively. Use of these methods and procedures will yield an adequate volume of data to assist community and national authorities in the elaboration and performance of effective seismic risk reduction programmes. (author). 19 refs, 6 figs, 5 tabs

  7. PWR severe accident mitigation measures, the french point of view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French studies have early considered the fact that, despite all the precautions taken, the possibility of severe accidents cannot be absolutely excluded; these accidents include core meltdown and a more or less significant loss, at an early or later stage, of the confinement of the radioactive substances in the containment. For a given scenario, one can almost always imagine a more severe scenario by postulating additional failures, but it is obvious that, as the severity of the imagined scenario increases, the probability of its occurrence tends towards zero. However, it does not appear reasonable to attempt to set a probability threshold below which the scenarios should be excluded. First of all, the higher the improbability of the scenarios, the greater the uncertainty in the calculation of their probability, with the result that the calculation is not very meaningful. Secondly, and more importantly, this approach ignores the essential problem of accident situation management. From the outset, French studies have been focused on controlling the development of these situations and mitigating their consequences by means of a series of appropriate actions involving, on the one hand, optimum use of the resources available in the installation during the course of the accident and, on the other hand, the taking of protective measures for the population. To attempt to prevent an initial event to degenerate into a severe accident leading to core meltdown if the proper actions are not taken, Electricite de France has proposed a new operating procedure based on the characterization of every possible cooling state of the core

  8. Discounting versus risk aversion: Their effects on individual demands for climate change mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cameron, T.A. [Univ. of Oregon (United States). Dept. of Economics; Gerdes, G.R.

    2007-07-01

    Policies to reduce carbon emissions in an effort to prevent climate change involve large near-term costs and uncertain long-term benefits (i.e. the avoided future adverse consequences of climate change). This uncertainty, along with the very different time profiles of costs and benefits, means that risk aversion and time preferences will be key features of any model that seeks to explain heterogeneity in consumer demand for climate change mitigation programs. Unfortunately, while most reduced-form empirical demand models for climate change mitigation can easily control for individual characteristics such as age, gender, and income, these two key structural determinants -- risk preferences and time preferences -- are typically unobservable. Risk aversion and time preferences are important sources of heterogeneity in preferences for public policies with near-term costs and uncertain future benefits. Using stated preference data, the authors first jointly estimate individual-specific risk aversion and discount rate parameters then use these as individual 'characteristics' in a separate model to explain preferences for climate change mitigation policies. The more risk-averse the individual, and/or the lower their discount rate, the higher is their willingness to pay. The authors also simulate expected demand under counterfactual conditions -- such as risk neutrality, or the lower social discount rates that would be used by a benevolent central planner.

  9. Towards a Proactive Risk Mitigation Strategy at La Fossa Volcano, Vulcano Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biass, S.; Gregg, C. E.; Frischknecht, C.; Falcone, J. L.; Lestuzzi, P.; di Traglia, F.; Rosi, M.; Bonadonna, C.

    2014-12-01

    A comprehensive risk assessment framework was built to develop proactive risk reduction measures for Vulcano Island, Italy. This framework includes identification of eruption scenarios; probabilistic hazard assessment, quantification of hazard impacts on the built environment, accessibility assessment on the island and risk perception study. Vulcano, a 21 km2 island with two primary communities host to 900 permanent residents and up to 10,000 visitors during summer, shows a strong dependency on the mainland for basic needs (water, energy) and relies on a ~2 month tourism season for its economy. The recent stratigraphy reveals a dominance of vulcanian and subplinian eruptions, producing a range of hazards acting at different time scales. We developed new methods to probabilistically quantify the hazard related to ballistics, lahars and tephra for all eruption styles. We also elaborated field- and GIS- based methods to assess the physical vulnerability of the built environment and created dynamic models of accessibility. Results outline the difference of hazard between short and long-lasting eruptions. A subplinian eruption has a 50% probability of impacting ~30% of the buildings within days after the eruption, but the year-long damage resulting from a long-lasting vulcanian eruption is similar if tephra is not removed from rooftops. Similarly, a subplinian eruption results in a volume of 7x105 m3 of material potentially remobilized into lahars soon after the eruption. Similar volumes are expected for a vulcanian activity over years, increasing the hazard of small lahars. Preferential lahar paths affect critical infrastructures lacking redundancy, such as the road network, communications systems, the island's only gas station, and access to the island's two evacuation ports. Such results from hazard, physical and systemic vulnerability help establish proactive volcanic risk mitigation strategies and may be applicable in other island settings.

  10. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    institution’s leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system’s loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are “taxed” based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular...

  11. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas; Richardson, Matthew P.

    institution's leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system's loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are ‘taxed’ based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular...

  12. Nanopesticides and Nanofertilizers: Emerging Contaminants or Opportunities for Risk Mitigation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kah, Melanie

    2015-01-01

    Research into nanotechnology applications for use in agriculture has become increasingly popular over the past decade, with a particular interest in developing novel nanoagrochemicals in the form of so-called "nanopesticides" and "nanofertilizers." In view of the extensive body of scientific literature available on the topic, many authors have foreseen a revolution in current agricultural practices. This perspective integrates scientific, regulatory, public and commercial viewpoints, and aims at critically evaluating progress made over the last decade. A number of key (and sometimes controversial) questions are addressed with the aim of identifying the products that will soon emerge on the market and analyzing how they can fit into current regulatory and commercial frameworks. Issues related to the differences in definitions and perceptions within different sectors are discussed, as well as our current ability to assess new risks and benefits relative to conventional products. Many nanoagrochemicals resemble products used currently, which raises the question whether the effect of formulation has been sufficiently taken into account when evaluating agrochemicals. This analysis identifies directions for future research and regulatory needs in order to encourage intelligent design and promote the development of more sustainable agrochemicals. PMID:26636068

  13. Thailand's Low-Carbon Scenario 2050: The AIM/CGE analyses of CO2 mitigation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change and CO2 mitigation have become increasingly important environmental issues. Recently Thailand has proposed policies on GHG mitigation such as Thailand’s Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA), which aims at GHG mitigation in the energy sector. This study used the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, called “AIM/CGE” model, to analyse GHG mitigation measures under emission trading and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology in Thailand. Results show that the international free emission trading policy can drive more GHG reduction by decreasing energy supply and demand, and increasing prices of emissions. The CCS technologies would balance emission reduction but they would reduce energy efficiency improvement and renewable energy utilization. In the energy security aspect, the policy options in this study would improve energy security, energy import dependency, and co-benefits of GHG mitigation in forms of improving local air quality. Results are also helpful to GHG mitigation policy in developing countries. -- Highlights: •A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was used to analyze GHG mitigation policies in Thailand. •The CCS and emission trading will increase GHG mitigation in Thailand. •The 30% GHG mitigation target with 50% emission trading will give the best result in GDP. •The share of biomass resource and energy efficiency will decrease with CCS. •The emission trading will play an important role in decreasing fossil consumption and increasing renewable energy utilization

  14. A new modelling framework and mitigation measures for increased resilience to flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valyrakis, Manousos; Alexakis, Athanasios; Solley, Mark

    2015-04-01

    Flooding in rivers and estuaries is amongst the most significant challenges our society has yet to tackle effectively. Use of floodwall systems is one of the potential measures that can be used to mitigate the detrimental socio-economical and ecological impacts and alleviate the associated costs of flooding. This work demonstrates the utility of such systems for a case study via appropriate numerical simulations, in addition to conducting scaled flume experiments towards obtaining a better understanding of the performance and efficiency of the flood-wall systems. At first, the results of several characteristic inundation modeling scenarios and flood mitigation options, for a flood-prone region in Scotland. In particular, the history and hydrology of the area are discussed and the assumptions and hydraulic model input (model geometry including instream hydraulic structures -such as bridges and weirs- river and floodplain roughness, initial and boundary conditions) are presented, followed by the model results. Emphasis is given on the potential improvements brought about by mitigating flood risk using flood-wall systems. Further, the implementation of the floodwall in mitigating flood risk is demonstrated via appropriate numerical modeling, utilizing HEC-RAS to simulate the effect of a river's rising stage during a flood event, for a specific area. The later part of this work involves the design, building and utilization of a scaled physical model of a flood-wall system. These experiments are carried out at one of the research flumes in the Water Engineering laboratory of the University of Glasgow. These involve an experimental investigation where the increase of force applied on the floodwall is measured for different degrees of deflection of the water in the stream, under the maximum flow discharge that can be carried through without exceeding the floodwall height (and accounting for the effect of super-elevation). These results can be considered upon the implementation phase of floodwalls, when the floodwalls are placed at any arrangement other than parallel to the flow (e.g. along river bends in meandering channels or at river junctions). Such considerations can lead to site-specific optimal designs of direct flood defenses with the rising floodwall system, both in terms of product performance as well as cost efficiency.

  15. Risk mitigation in the implementation of AMTs: A guiding framework for future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhaskar Nagar

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The fast industrial development increases different types of risks for the industries. Many risk factors are inherent in the implementation of advanced manufacturing technologies (AMTs. Industries are developing methodologies for risk prevention and protection. The present research focuses to identify various risks that could influence the implementation of AMTs, and develop a framework to mitigate them. For this framework, interpretive structural modeling(ISM has been used to depict the relationship and priority among the various risks. This research provides a path for managers and indicates the dominant risks on the basis of higher driving power. Also, this research classifies the relationship among various risks in AMTs implementation according to their driving power and dependence. The risks have been categorized into four categories as autonomous risks, linkage risks, dependent risks and independent risks. The proposed hierarchal model would help the management to effectively handle and develop strategies against the risks and hence new and latest technologies can be adopted with ease and effectiveness.

  16. EPA (ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY) PROGRAM TO DEMONSTRATE MITIGATION MEASURES FOR INDOOR RADON: INITIAL RESULTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The paper gives initial results of an EPA program to demonstrate mitigation measures for indoor radon. EPA has installed radon mitigation techniques in 18 concrete block basement homes in the Reading Prong area of eastern Pennsylvania, all designed to demonstrate techniques which...

  17. RISK MANAGEMENT MEASURES IN CMMI

    OpenAIRE

    Mahmoud Khraiwesh

    2012-01-01

    Risk management is a continuous process that could endanger the objectives of a project or application.Risks are handled to reduce and avoid threats effects on the objectives of the project. The sources of riskare both internal and external to the project. This research will identify general measures for the specificgoal and its specific practices of Risk Management Process Area (PA) in Capability Maturity ModelIntegration (CMMI). CMMI is developed by Software Engineering Institute (SEI) in C...

  18. Experimental study designs to improve the evaluation of road mitigation measures for wildlife.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rytwinski, Trina; van der Ree, Rodney; Cunnington, Glenn M; Fahrig, Lenore; Findlay, C Scott; Houlahan, Jeff; Jaeger, Jochen A G; Soanes, Kylie; van der Grift, Edgar A

    2015-05-01

    An experimental approach to road mitigation that maximizes inferential power is essential to ensure that mitigation is both ecologically-effective and cost-effective. Here, we set out the need for and standards of using an experimental approach to road mitigation, in order to improve knowledge of the influence of mitigation measures on wildlife populations. We point out two key areas that need to be considered when conducting mitigation experiments. First, researchers need to get involved at the earliest stage of the road or mitigation project to ensure the necessary planning and funds are available for conducting a high quality experiment. Second, experimentation will generate new knowledge about the parameters that influence mitigation effectiveness, which ultimately allows better prediction for future road mitigation projects. We identify seven key questions about mitigation structures (i.e., wildlife crossing structures and fencing) that remain largely or entirely unanswered at the population-level: (1) Does a given crossing structure work? What type and size of crossing structures should we use? (2) How many crossing structures should we build? (3) Is it more effective to install a small number of large-sized crossing structures or a large number of small-sized crossing structures? (4) How much barrier fencing is needed for a given length of road? (5) Do we need funnel fencing to lead animals to crossing structures, and how long does such fencing have to be? (6) How should we manage/manipulate the environment in the area around the crossing structures and fencing? (7) Where should we place crossing structures and barrier fencing? We provide experimental approaches to answering each of them using example Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) study designs for two stages in the road/mitigation project where researchers may become involved: (1) at the beginning of a road/mitigation project, and (2) after the mitigation has been constructed; highlighting real case studies when available. PMID:25704749

  19. Information and education as a basis of risk mitigation for the citizens of Catalonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guamis, J.; Burckhart, K.; Grau, A.

    2009-09-01

    The General Directorate for Civil Protection of the Catalan Government is in charge of the drawing up and validation of plans that identify risk and establish a joint system of response actions to minimize the consequences of damages caused by emergencies. The risks covered are natural (fire, snow, flooding, heat,...) and human (chemical industry, transport of dangerous goods,...) ones. In the special case of flooding, an Emergency Flood Plan for Catalonia (INUNCAT) exists. Its aim is to minimize the effects and damages to people, property or the environment due to floods within the region of Catalonia. In the following, the actions on active prevention currently realized by Civil Protection in this Mediterranean region regarding risk mitigation of flooding are described. Special emphasis is laid on the prevention of risk situations through advanced information and education which aim at diminishing the vulnerability of the population. The preparedness of the population to face a serious flooding depends highly on the level of the citizens’ self-protection. Therefore the collection and dissemination of recommendations on adequate behaviour is crucial. The Catalan Government realizes different activities to foster the understanding and the correct behaviour of the citizens in case of flooding. Informative sessions to target groups, opinion studies, mass media communication and itinerant exhibitions are some of the elements applied to increase social consciousness and mitigate the vulnerability of the population. Among these, sensitization campaigns play a crucial role. A coherent system of information and education is adhered to these campaigns. Informative material (posters, leaflets, web sites) and sessions are part of the activities which are addressed to different social group and aim at rising the population’s awareness on the risk of flooding. Multidisciplinary presentations and expert speeches on adequate behaviour are given to stakeholders in those areas which are potentially affected by flooding or which are situated downriver of big water reservoirs. These stakeholders act as multipliers to pass on the recommendations emitted by the Catalan Government. Mass communication is a means of reaching a wide part of the population. TV spots, radio announcements and newspaper advertisements on correct behaviour in a certain emergency do already exist for certain risks, but are still missing in the case of flooding. The realization of opinion studies contribute to a better understanding of the citizens’ risk perception. The opinion study includes questions like: What do you know about recommendations on behaviour during flooding? or What would you do if you found themselves in an emergency? When contrasting the results, the effectiveness of existing campaigns is put on proof and the content and canal of future campaigns can be determined. The General Directorate for Civil Protection has created an itinerant exhibition as an additional activity to increase the populations’ consciousness on the potential risks in the Mediterranean region of Catalonia. It includes the main preventive measures the citizens have to take in case of an emergency and depicts recommendations for self-protection. The exhibition is displayed at municipal level and is designated to approach the maximum number of citizens. The participation in European projects, such as RINAMED, is a way to increase the interchange of know-how and strengthen international communication. In the case of RINAMED the objective was to provide the citizens living in the Mediterranean areas with a better knowledge of the natural risks. The joint effort of the different member regions contributed to establish a common frame of prevention and information in order to increase risk preparedness in the Mediterranean area. For future improvement and advances regarding educational and informative tasks, one of the aims is to obtain direct involvement of the population and to reach specific target groups through opinion leaders. Moreover the need to build partnership or strengthen existing cooperation, i.e. interdisciplinary participation of different institutions, such as for example the Red Cross, should help to rise social consciousness and reach the maximum number of citizens. A direct interaction with the citizens and an involvement of the population will be an effective way to educate vulnerable population and thereby mitigate negative social impacts.

  20. Assessing and mitigating risks of engineering programs with lean management techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fritz, A.; Oehmen, Josef; Rebentisch, E.

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates the use of lean management techniques as a risk mitigation approach for large-scale engineering programs. The key research questions are how lean best practices with the highest risk mitigation potential are identified, how the most relevant lean best practices for a...... specific program are identified and how the effort for implementation of these lean best practices is estimated. Large-scale engineering programs have as results usually complex technical products or systems such as airplanes, satellites (GPS) or software programs, immense infrastructure efforts like the...... [Shao and Müller 2011, Shao et al. 2012]. To incorporate these capabilities and to manage the obviously difficult entity of a program, a variety of standards and guidance books have been published. The two most prominent ones are Managing Successful Programs (MSP) and The Standard for Program Management...

  1. Measuring downside risk - realised semivariance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Kinnebrock, Silja; Shephard, Neil

    We propose a new measure of risk, based entirely on downwards moves measured using high frequency data. Realised semivariances are shown to have important predictive qualities for future market volatility. The theory of these new measures is spelt out, drawing on some new results from probability...

  2. Accident management measures to prevent accidents or to mitigate its consequences for LWRs in the FRG

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk studies, the accident at TMI-2, some incidents and studies have made it evident that the flexible use of existing systems can be very beneficial in preventing accidents, or mitigating its consequences. In a further step systems could be added to increase the potential to react to unforeseen events, i.e. increase the flexibility, or to meet specific goals. In this paper it will be discussed that a selection of 'umbrella type' sequences for severe accidents could unbalance the safety systems. Accident management procedures should be sympton-oriented in addition to event-oriented procedures. Accident management measures to meet performance-oriented goals (subcriticality, mass inventory within the RPV, decay heat removal, containment integrity, low releases of fission products to the environment) will be described for BWR's and PWR's. (orig.)

  3. Effect of Wind Intermittency on the Electric Grid: Mitigating the Risk of Energy Deficits

    OpenAIRE

    George, Sam O.; George, H. Bola; Nguyen, Scott V.

    2010-01-01

    Successful implementation of California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) mandating 33 percent renewable energy generation by 2020 requires inclusion of a robust strategy to mitigate increased risk of energy deficits (blackouts) due to short time-scale (sub 1 hour) intermittencies in renewable energy sources. Of these RPS sources, wind energy has the fastest growth rate--over 25% year-over-year. If these growth trends continue, wind energy could make up 15 percent of California's energy po...

  4. Risk Perception and Economic Value Of Disaster Mitigation Case of Bantul Post Earthquake May 2006

    OpenAIRE

    Suryanto; Mudrajad Kuncoro

    2012-01-01

    This study aims to obtain empirical evidence of disaster mitigation in Bantul, Indonesia. The expected utility theory and impact of regional characteristics on individual perceptions was used to describe the disaster risk management process. The regional mapping based on hazard level was conducted by a Geographical Information System (GIS). Data used in this research were primary and secondary data. Primary data were obtained by distributing questionnaire to some respondents. Sample amounts u...

  5. On the Value of Mitigation and Contingency Strategies for Managing Supply Chain Disruption Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Brian Tomlin

    2006-01-01

    We study a single-product setting in which a firm can source from two suppliers, one that is unreliable and another that is reliable but more expensive. Suppliers are capacity constrained, but the reliable supplier may possess volume flexibility. We prove that in the special case in which the reliable supplier has no flexibility and the unreliable supplier has infinite capacity, a risk-neutral firm will pursue a single disruption-management strategy: mitigation by carrying inventory, mitigati...

  6. Project management best practices: forging win-win partnerships and mitigating power project risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper discusses aspects of project management to mitigate power project risk. end-to-end project development involves development phase, permitting phase, implementation phase, and operational phase. Each phase involves a number of different elements. In renewable energy project good management requires maintaining project discipline and schedule throughout all phases. Project success requires commercial competitiveness, fuel availability, power sales contracts, stake holder support, permitting, effective execution, construction and good technical performance

  7. Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.

    2010-01-01

    An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

  8. A multiple stage approach to mitigate the risks of telecommunication equipment under free air cooling conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► Analyze the challenges posed by free air cooling (FAC). ► Present a multi-stage process to mitigate the risks of FAC. ► Propose a prognostics-based method to mitigate risks in data centers in operation. ► Present a case study to show the prognostics-based method implementation. - Abstract: The telecommunication industry is concerned about the energy costs of its operating infrastructure and the associated greenhouse gas emissions. At present, more than half of the total energy consumption of data centers is devoted to the power and cooling infrastructure that supports electronic equipment. One method of reducing energy consumption is an approach called “free air cooling,” where ambient air is used to cool the equipment directly, thereby reducing the energy consumed in cooling and conditioning the air. For example, Intel demonstrated free air cooling in a 10-megawatt (MW) data center, showing a reduction in energy use and savings of US$2.87 million annually. However, the impacts of this approach on the performance and reliability of telecommunication equipment need to be identified. The implementation of free air cooling changes the operating environment, including temperature and humidity, which may have a significant impact on the performance and reliability of telecom equipment. This paper discusses the challenges posed by free air cooling and presents a multi-stage process for evaluating and mitigating the potential risks arising from this new operating environment.

  9. Predicting Risk-Mitigating Behaviors From Indecisiveness and Trait Anxiety: Two Cognitive Pathways to Task Avoidance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeill, Ilona M; Dunlop, Patrick D; Skinner, Timothy C; Morrison, David L

    2016-02-01

    Past research suggests that indecisiveness and trait anxiety may both decrease the likelihood of performing risk-mitigating preparatory behaviors (e.g., preparing for natural hazards) and suggests two cognitive processes (perceived control and worrying) as potential mediators. However, no single study to date has examined the influence of these traits and processes together. Examining them simultaneously is necessary to gain an integrated understanding of their relationship with risk-mitigating behaviors. We therefore examined these traits and mediators in relation to wildfire preparedness in a two-wave field study among residents of wildfire-prone areas in Western Australia (total N = 223). Structural equation modeling results showed that indecisiveness uniquely predicted preparedness, with higher indecisiveness predicting lower preparedness. This relationship was fully mediated by perceived control over wildfire-related outcomes. Trait anxiety did not uniquely predict preparedness or perceived control, but it did uniquely predict worry, with higher trait anxiety predicting more worrying. Also, worry trended toward uniquely predicting preparedness, albeit in an unpredicted positive direction. This shows how the lack of performing risk-mitigating behaviors can result from distinct cognitive processes that are linked to distinct personality traits. It also highlights how simultaneous examination of multiple pathways to behavior creates a fuller understanding of its antecedents. PMID:25234125

  10. Global climate change: Implications, challenges, and mitigation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book presents a perspective of the potential problem of global climate change induced by human activity. The editors have presented viewpoints of experts (advocates and skeptics) representing the issues of climate change. Possible results from long-term global change discussed in this book include mass migrations of plants and animals; changes in crop yields; flood and drought; and economic, political, and cultural changes. The text contains 20 chapters on the impact of global climate change and 10 chapters on the mitigation of effects and policy development

  11. Radiological terrorism: Countermeasures and measures for mitigation of consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radioactive sources can be used in devices aimed at radiological terrorism. The paper briefly discusses the types and quantities of sources that may be suitable for such a purpose. A summary of equipment containing significant radioactive sources manufactured in the former Soviet Union is presented. The paper also describes the structure, functions and future directions of activities of organizations in the Russian Federation responsible for nuclear safety and security, including the control and accounting of radioactive materials and the system to prevent, respond to and mitigate the consequences of nuclear emergency situations. (author)

  12. Uncertainty Quantification and Risk Mitigation of CO2 Leakage in Groundwater Aquifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Y.; Tong, C.; Mansoor, K.; Carroll, S.

    2013-12-01

    The risk of CO2 leakage into shallow aquifers through various pathways such as faults and abandoned wells is a concern of CO2 geological sequestration. If a leak is detected in an aquifer system, a contingency plan is required to manage the CO2 storage and to protect the groundwater source. Among many remediation and mitigation strategies, the simplest is to stop CO2 leakage at a wellbore. Therefore, it is necessary to address whether and when the CO2 leaks should be sealed, and how much risk can be mitigated. In the presence of various uncertainties, including geological-structure uncertainty and parametric uncertainty, the risk of CO2 leakage into an aquifer needs to be assessed with probabilistic distributions of uncertain parameters. In this study, we developed an integrated model to simulate multiphase flow of CO2 and brine in a deep storage reservoir, through a leaky well at an uncertain location, and subsequently multicomponent reactive transport in a shallow aquifer. Each sub-model covers its domain-specific physics. Uncertainties of geological structure and parameters are considered together with decision variables (CO2 injection rate and mitigation time) for risk assessment of leakage-impacted aquifer volume. High-resolution and less-expensive reduced-order models (ROMs) of risk profiles are approximated as polynomial functions of decision variables and all uncertain parameters. These reduced-order models are then used in the place of computationally-expensive numerical models for future decision-making on if and when the leaky well is sealed. The tradeoff between CO2 storage capacity in the reservoir and the leakage-induced risk in the aquifer is evaluated. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

  13. The Effects of Mitigation Measures on Flood Damage Prevention in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheol-Hee Son

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzed the characteristics of flood damages and the effects of structural and non-structural flood damage mitigation measures in Korea. First, a theoretical discussion of the structural and non-structural measures to mitigate flood damages was used to select the variables and devise the hypotheses. An analysis was conducted using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving-Average (ARIMA time series methodology, Korean socioeconomic data, and damage characteristics of major flood events. The effects of flood damage mitigation measures on the extent of flood damages were assessed using an intervention time series model. The major findings were that the intervention effects of structural and non-structural measures were statistically significant from 1958 to 2013 (a period of 55 years and that while the former were ineffective at mitigating flood damages, the latter were successful in doing so. Based on the above findings, policy suggestions for future flood damage mitigation measures in Korea were offered. For structural measures, the government should manage its existing facilities, recover ecosystems of damaged rivers, and devise mitigation measures for urban areas. For non-structural measures, the government should enhance its flood forecasting capacity, revise laws related to flood control and prevention, and update and rationalize land-use plans.

  14. SILER: Seismic-Initiated events risk mitigation in Lead-cooled Reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SILER is a Collaborative Project, partially funded by the European Commission, aimed at studying the risk associated to seismic initiated events in Generation IV Heavy Liquid Metal reactors and developing adequate protection measures. The attention is focused on the evaluation of the effects of earthquakes (with particular regards to beyond design seismic events) and to the identification of mitigation strategies, acting both on structures and components design (as well as on the development of seismic isolation devices) which can also have positive effects on economics, leading to an high level of plant design standardization. Attention is also devoted to the identification of plant layout solutions able to avoid risks of radioactive release from both the core and other structures (i.e. the spent fuel storage pools). Specific effort is paid to the development of guidelines and design recommendations for addressing the seismic issue in next generation reactor systems. In addition, consideration will be devoted to transfer the knowledge developed in the project to Generation III advanced systems, in line with the objective of the SNE-TP SRA to support present and future Light Water Reactors and their further development, for which safety issues are key aspects to be addressed. Note, in this respect, that the benefits of base isolation in terms of response to design seismic actions are already widely recognized for Generation III LWRs, along with the possibility of a significant standardization of structural and equipment design. SILER activities started on October 1 st 2011 and are carried out by 18 partners: ENEA (Italy, Coordinator), AREVA NP SAS (France), SCK-CEN (Belgium), FIP Industriale (Italy), MAURER SOHENE (Germany), EC-JRC (Ispra (Italy)), SINTEC (Italy), KTH (Sweden), BOA-BKT (Germany), IDOM (Spain), ANSALDO (Italy), IPUL (Latvia), NUMERIA (Italy), VCE (Austria), SRS (Italy), CEA (France), EA (Spain), NUVIA (France). (authors)

  15. Tychastic measure of viability risk

    CERN Document Server

    Aubin, Jean-Pierre; Dordan, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    This book presents a forecasting mechanism of the price intervals for deriving the SCR (solvency capital requirement) eradicating the risk during the exercise period on one hand, and measuring the risk by computing the hedging exit time function associating with smaller investments the date until which the value of the portfolio hedges the liabilities on the other. This information, summarized under the term “tychastic viability measure of risk” is an evolutionary alternative to statistical measures, when dealing with evolutions under uncertainty. The book is written by experts in the field and the target audience primarily comprises research experts and practitioners.

  16. Knowledge Sharing and Collaboration in Volcanic Risk Mitigation at Galeras Volcano, Colombia: A Participative Workshop to Reduce Volcanic Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheridan, M. F.; Cordoba, G. A.

    2009-12-01

    Galeras has been in nearly constant activity during modern historic times (roughly the past 500 years). Approximately 10,000 people live within an area designated as the highest-hazard and nearly 400,000 people are within areas of potential harmful effects. A wide variety of stakeholders are affected by the hazards, including: farmers, indigenous villagers, and people in urban environments. Hazards assessment and volcano monitoring are the responsibility of the Colombian Geological Survey (INGEOMINAS), whereas decisions regarding mitigation and response procedures are the responsibility of various governmental offices and the national emergency system (SNPAD). According to the current plan, when the risk level rises to a high level the people in the highest risk zone are required to evacuate. The volcano currently is in a very active, but fluctuating, condition and a future large eruption in a medium time frame (years to decades) is possible. There is a growing level of discomfort among many of the affected groups, including indigenous communities, farmers, and urban dwellers, related to the risk assessment. The general opinion prior to July 2009 was quite polarized as the decision makers saw the people of the region as poorly prepared to understand this hazard, whereas the population felt that their views were not being heard. The result was that the people in the hazardous areas decided not to evacuate, even during the current period of explosive activity. To resolve this situation the University of Nariño (Colombia) and the State University of New York at Buffalo organized a workshop named "Knowledge, Sharing and Collaboration in Volcanic Risk Mitigation at Galeras Volcano, Colombia" that was held in Pasto (Colombia), between 6 and 11 July, 2009. The general objective of this workshop was to analyze the existing hazard maps and safety plans for Galeras and form a bridge connecting scientists, decision makers, and other stake holders to promote a better understanding of the hazards presented by Galeras and the measures needed for mutual understanding and protection of people and property in the potentially threatened areas. Progress towards developing trust was achieved by requiring all the parties, including technicians, scientists, administrators and even farmers and indigenous people to listen to each others’ perceptions thought the entire week of the workshop. On the final day of the meeting a roundtable dialogue between the conflicting parts was moderated by social scientists. This intercourse identified, in a consensual manner, points of agreement to serve as starting positions for finding solutions to the areas of conflict. Irresolvable points were also identified during this roundtable discussion. The workshop showed that by sharing information within the framework of a full and frank communication, accepting (or at least listening to) each others’ arguments and trying to understand different points of view and served as a framework for an ongoing process of dialogue focused on resolving conflicts between the various stakeholder groups, even though they had previously reached the point of radicalized positions and statements.

  17. Measuring the effects of stormwater mitigation on beach attendance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atiyah, Perla; Pendleton, Linwood; Vaughn, Ryan; Lessem, Neil

    2013-07-15

    Many studies have used valuation techniques to predict the potential effect of environmental improvements on human use of coastal areas, but there is a lack of post hoc empirical evidence that these policies indeed affect the way people use coastal areas. A panel data approach is developed to statistically determine how storm drain diversions affected attendance at 26 beaches in Southern California. This study uses a 10-year time series of data to conduct a statistical analysis of attendance at beaches with and without diversions and before and after the diversions were installed, while controlling for all observable, confounding factors. Results indicate that beach attendance increased at beaches with diversions compared to those that did not have diversions (between 350,000 and 860,000 visits annually at a 95% confidence interval). Establishing this link between mitigation policies and human use patterns can lead to better management of coastal areas. PMID:23711842

  18. Soil bioengineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrone, A.; Preti, F.

    2010-02-01

    The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on the autochthonal plants suitable for these kinds of interventions and on the economic efficiency of the interventions is essential for the dissemination of such techniques. The present paper is focused on these two issues as related to the realization of various typologies of soil bioengineering works in the humid tropics of Nicaragua. In the area of Río Blanco, located in the Department of Matagalpa, soil bioengineering installations were built in several sites. The particular structures built were: drainages with live fascine mattress, a live palisade, a vegetated live crib wall for riverbank protection, a vegetative covering made of a metallic net and biotextile coupled with a live palisade made of bamboo. In order to evaluate the suitability of the various plants used in these works, monitoring was performed, one on the live palisade alongside an unpaved road and the other on the live crib wall along a riverbank, by collecting data on survival rate and morphological parameters. Concerning economic efficiency, we proceeded to a financial analysis of the works. Once the unit price was obtained, we converted the amount into EPP Dollars (Equal Purchasing Power) in order to compare the Nicaraguan context with the European one. Among the species used we found that Gliricidia sepium (local common name: Madero negro) and Tabebuia rosea (local common name: Roble macuelizo) are adequate for soil bioengineering measures on slopes, while Erythrina fusca (local common name: Helequeme) resulted in successful behaviour only in the crib wall for riverbank protection. In comparing costs in Nicaragua and in Italy, the unit price reduction for Nicaragua ranges from 1.5 times (for the vegetative covering) to almost 4 times (for the fascine mattress), using the EPP dollar exchange rate. Our conclusions with regard to hydrological-risk mitigating actions performed on a basin scale and through naturalistic (live) interventions are that they are not only socially and technically possible, even in hardship areas (by maximizing the contribution of the local labour force and minimizing the use of mechanical equipment), but also economically sustainable.

  19. Soil bio-engineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrone, A.; Preti, F.

    2009-07-01

    The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on authochtonal plants suitable for this kind of works and on economic efficiency is essential for the divulgation of such techniques. The present paper is focused on this two issues related to the realization of various typologies of soil bio-engineering works in the humid tropic of Nicaragua. In the area of Río Blanco, located in the Department of Matagalpa, soil bio-engineering installations were built in several sites. The particular structures built were: drainages with live fascine mattress, a live palisade, a vegetated live crib wall for riverbank protection, a vegetative covering made of a metallic net and biotextile coupled with a live palisade made of bamboo. In order to evaluate the suitability of the various plants used in the works, monitorings were performed, one in the live palisade alongside an unpaved road and the other on the live crib wall along a riverbank, collecting survival rate and morphological parameters data. Concerning the economic efficiency we proceed to a financial analysis of the works and once the unit price was obtained, we converted the amount in EPP Dollars (Equal Purchasing Power) in order to compare the Nicaraguan context with the Italian one. Among the used species we found that Madero negro (Gliricidia sepium) and Roble macuelizo (Tabebuia rosea) are adequate for soil-bioengineering measure on slopes while Helequeme (Erythrina fusca) reported a successful behaviour only in the crib wall for riverbank protection. In the comparison of the costs in Nicaragua and in Italy, the unit price reduction for the Central American country ranges between 1.5 times (for the vegetative covering) and almost 4 times (for the fascine mattress) if it's used the EPP dollar exchange rate. Conclusions are reached with regard to hydrological-risk mitigating actions performed on a basin scale and through naturalistic (live) interventions: not only are they socially and technically attainable, even in hardship areas (by maximizing the contribution of the local labor force and minimizing the use of mechanical equipment), but they are also economically sustainable.

  20. Soil bioengineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Petrone

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on the autochthonal plants suitable for these kinds of interventions and on the economic efficiency of the interventions is essential for the dissemination of such techniques. The present paper is focused on these two issues as related to the realization of various typologies of soil bioengineering works in the humid tropics of Nicaragua.

    In the area of Río Blanco, located in the Department of Matagalpa, soil bioengineering installations were built in several sites. The particular structures built were: drainages with live fascine mattress, a live palisade, a vegetated live crib wall for riverbank protection, a vegetative covering made of a metallic net and biotextile coupled with a live palisade made of bamboo. In order to evaluate the suitability of the various plants used in these works, monitoring was performed, one on the live palisade alongside an unpaved road and the other on the live crib wall along a riverbank, by collecting data on survival rate and morphological parameters. Concerning economic efficiency, we proceeded to a financial analysis of the works. Once the unit price was obtained, we converted the amount into EPP Dollars (Equal Purchasing Power in order to compare the Nicaraguan context with the European one.

    Among the species used we found that Gliricidia sepium (local common name: Madero negro and Tabebuia rosea (local common name: Roble macuelizo are adequate for soil bioengineering measures on slopes, while Erythrina fusca (local common name: Helequeme resulted in successful behaviour only in the crib wall for riverbank protection.

    In comparing costs in Nicaragua and in Italy, the unit price reduction for Nicaragua ranges from 1.5 times (for the vegetative covering to almost 4 times (for the fascine mattress, using the EPP dollar exchange rate.

    Our conclusions with regard to hydrological-risk mitigating actions performed on a basin scale and through naturalistic (live interventions are that they are not only socially and technically possible, even in hardship areas (by maximizing the contribution of the local labour force and minimizing the use of mechanical equipment, but also economically sustainable.

  1. Soil bio-engineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Petrone

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on authochtonal plants suitable for this kind of works and on economic efficiency is essential for the divulgation of such techniques. The present paper is focused on this two issues related to the realization of various typologies of soil bio-engineering works in the humid tropic of Nicaragua.



    In the area of Río Blanco, located in the Department of Matagalpa, soil bio-engineering installations were built in several sites. The particular structures built were: drainages with live fascine mattress, a live palisade, a vegetated live crib wall for riverbank protection, a vegetative covering made of a metallic net and biotextile coupled with a live palisade made of bamboo. In order to evaluate the suitability of the various plants used in the works, monitorings were performed, one in the live palisade alongside an unpaved road and the other on the live crib wall along a riverbank, collecting survival rate and morphological parameters data. Concerning the economic efficiency we proceed to a financial analysis of the works and once the unit price was obtained, we converted the amount in EPP Dollars (Equal Purchasing Power in order to compare the Nicaraguan context with the Italian one.



    Among the used species we found that Madero negro (Gliricidia sepium and Roble macuelizo (Tabebuia rosea are adequate for soil-bioengineering measure on slopes while Helequeme (Erythrina fusca reported a successful behaviour only in the crib wall for riverbank protection.



    In the comparison of the costs in Nicaragua and in Italy, the unit price reduction for the Central American country ranges between 1.5 times (for the vegetative covering and almost 4 times (for the fascine mattress if it's used the EPP dollar exchange rate.



    Conclusions are reached with regard to hydrological-risk mitigating actions performed on a basin scale and through naturalistic (live interventions: not only are they socially and technically attainable, even in hardship areas (by maximizing the contribution of the local labor force and minimizing the use of mechanical equipment, but they are also economically sustainable.

  2. Optimal Reinsurance with General Risk Measures

    OpenAIRE

    Balbás, Alejandro; Balbás, Beatriz; Heras, Antonio

    2009-01-01

    This paper studies the optimal reinsurance problem when risk is measured by a general risk measure. Necessary and sufficient optimality conditions are given for a wide family of risk measures, including deviation measures, expectation bounded risk measures and coherent measures of risk. The optimality conditions are used to verify whether the classical reinsurance contracts (quota-share, stop-loss) are optimal essentially, regardless of the risk measure used. The paper ends by particularizing...

  3. Kazakhstan Nationwide Assessment of Climate-Change Related Risks and Formulation of Mitigation Strategy

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank, (WB)

    2015-01-01

    This Policy Note outlines the most critical climate risks in coming decades, possible climate?smart measures for reducing these risks, and a review of how current Government of Kazakhstan strategies and action plans address these issues.

  4. Mitigating risks associated with Lockout/Tagout (LOTO) of hazardous energy in Nigeria : a tracker approach / E.A. Aghenta.

    OpenAIRE

    Aghenta, Emmanuel Aigbokhaibho

    2012-01-01

    The main objective of the study was to determine the risk(s) associated with lockout/tagout of hazardous energy and propose a new LOTO procedure which tracks the implementation of LOTO to mitigate against identified risks as a basis for promotion of safety. The study focuses on electrical personnel working in PHCN. Only electrical accident risks are examined, not other types of risk e.g. mechanical, chemical, and nuclear. To gather material for this study, a questionnaire was distributed ...

  5. Identifying, Assessing, and Mitigating Risk of Single-Point Inspections on the Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenhalgh, Phillip O.

    2004-01-01

    In the production of each Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM), over 100,000 inspections are performed. ATK Thiokol Inc. reviewed these inspections to ensure a robust inspection system is maintained. The principal effort within this endeavor was the systematic identification and evaluation of inspections considered to be single-point. Single-point inspections are those accomplished on components, materials, and tooling by only one person, involving no other check. The purpose was to more accurately characterize risk and ultimately address and/or mitigate risk associated with single-point inspections. After the initial review of all inspections and identification/assessment of single-point inspections, review teams applied risk prioritization methodology similar to that used in a Process Failure Modes Effects Analysis to derive a Risk Prioritization Number for each single-point inspection. After the prioritization of risk, all single-point inspection points determined to have significant risk were provided either with risk-mitigating actions or rationale for acceptance. This effort gave confidence to the RSRM program that the correct inspections are being accomplished, that there is appropriate justification for those that remain as single-point inspections, and that risk mitigation was applied to further reduce risk of higher risk single-point inspections. This paper examines the process, results, and lessons learned in identifying, assessing, and mitigating risk associated with single-point inspections accomplished in the production of the Space Shuttle RSRM.

  6. Long-term development and effectiveness of private flood mitigation measures: an analysis for the German part of the river Rhine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Bubeck

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Flood mitigation measures implemented by private households have become an important component of contemporary integrated flood risk management in Germany and many other countries. Despite the growing responsibility of private households to contribute to flood damage reduction by means of private flood mitigation measures, knowledge on the long-term development of such measures, which indicates changes in vulnerability over time, and their effectiveness, is still scarce. To gain further insights into the long-term development, current implementation level and effectiveness of private flood mitigation measures, empirical data from 752 flood-prone households along the German part of the Rhine are presented. It is found that four types of flood mitigation measures developed gradually over time among flood-prone households, with severe floods being important triggers for an accelerated implementation. At present, still a large share of respondents has not implemented a single flood mitigation measure, despite the high exposure of the surveyed households to floods. The records of household's flood damage to contents and structure during two consecutive flood events with similar hazard characteristics in 1993 and 1995 show that an improved preparedness of the population led to substantially reduced damage during the latter event. Regarding the efficiency of contemporary integrated flood risk management, it is concluded that additional policies are required in order to further increase the level of preparedness of the flood-prone population. This especially concerns households in areas that are less frequently affected by flood events.

  7. Assess/Mitigate Risk through the Use of Computer-Aided Software Engineering (CASE) Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) was requested to perform an independent assessment of the mitigation of the Constellation Program (CxP) Risk 4421 through the use of computer-aided software engineering (CASE) tools. With the cancellation of the CxP, the assessment goals were modified to capture lessons learned and best practices in the use of CASE tools. The assessment goal was to prepare the next program for the use of these CASE tools. The outcome of the assessment is contained in this document.

  8. The Trend Analysis on China's Agricultural Natural Risks and Improvement of the Ability of Disaster Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Jian Wang; Lijuan Qiao; Yueling Zhang; Junyan Zhao; Zhengjia Wang; Rehman Abdur; Xing Li

    2013-01-01

    In accordance with the concept of the agricultural natural disasters formed in China, by means of over 20 years of major disasters occurred panel data of recorded, it defined and measured the rates of disaster reduction and disaster affected, and gives the interpretation of mitigation agricultural natural disasters. According to the extent and the area of distribution of a variety of disasters in the losses of crop, use of basic statistical methods to analyze the development trend and the aff...

  9. Measuring, Reporting and Verifying Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions. Reflecting experiences under the Mitigation Momentum Project. Discussion paper

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Vit, C.; Roeser, F.; Fekete, H.; Hoehne, N.; Wartmann, S.; Van Tilburg, X.; Larkin, J.; Escalante, D.; Haensel, G.; Veum, K.; Cameron, L.; Halcomb, J.

    2013-06-15

    The Mitigation Momentum project aims to support the development of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs). It contributes to the concrete design of NAMA proposals in five countries (Peru, Chile, Indonesia, Tunisia and Kenya). A further aim is to foster cooperation and knowledge exchange within the NAMA community while advancing the international climate policy debate on mitigation and related issues, including approaches for the Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) of NAMAs. MRV enables the assessment of the effectiveness of both internationally supported NAMAs (supported NAMAs) and domestically supported NAMAs (unilateral NAMAs) by tracking NAMA impacts including greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions and non-GHG related impacts such as sustainable development benefits. MRV also supports improved policy design and decision making through systematic progress reporting and is a key tool to ensure accountability of NAMA stakeholders. Both host countries and funders share the common interest of having strong, implementable MRV systems in place. From both perspectives, this raises a number of questions, as well as potential challenges, on how to adapt the MRV approach to the specific circumstances of each NAMA. The objective of this paper is to identify open issues for the MRV of impacts of NAMAs, understood here as implementable actions, i.e. a project, a policy, a programme or a strategy. It pays particular attention to NAMAs with a supported component and reflects relevant initial experiences with developing NAMA proposals in the five Mitigation Momentum countries (i.e. using country examples where appropriate). As MRV systems for these NAMAs are still under development or at their preliminary stage, we hope to share further lessons learned in a subsequent discussion paper. Key challenges analysed in this paper include: How to design a MRV system that satisfies both the host country's and funder's expectations while complying with United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reporting requirements? How to draw the line between the MRV approach for unilateral components and the MRV approach for supported components given that many NAMAs are likely to have both unilateral as well as supported components? How to design a pragmatic, implementable MRV system, which is also robust? What does robustness mean in the context of the MRV of NAMAs? Current NAMA experiences show that responding to these challenges requires taking into account the variety of NAMAs, as illustrated by those submitted to the UNFCCC (including economy-wide GHG reduction goals, sectoral strategies, mitigation policies, individual projects, etc.), and countries' capacities. Although this paper does not aim to provide practical guidance, it will highlight areas where common guidance would be valuable to deal with such challenges. It will also point out areas where such guidance is limited de facto and where pragmatic approaches i.e. seeking a balance between robustness, feasibility and cost-effectiveness, may prove valuable to design feasible yet still robust MRV systems. Although this paper does not answer all questions it raises, it aims to offer innovative ways to respond to open issues, including through learning from country experiences. After a short introduction to basic MRV concepts and to the current status of discussions and experiences on MRV (Chapter 2), the paper is organised around key dimensions of MRV as recognised by MRV literature and UNFCCC texts: transparency (Chapter 3), robustness (Chapter 4), and feasibility and cost-effectiveness (Chapter 5). Challenges pertaining to these MRV dimensions are further explored in each chapter.

  10. Industrialized watersheds have elevated risk and limited opportunities to mitigate risk through water trading

    OpenAIRE

    Reddy, Sheila M. W.; McDonald, Robert I; Alexander S. Maas; Anthony Rogers; Evan H. Girvetz; Jennifer Molnar; Tim Finley; Gen Leathers; Johnathan L. DiMuro

    2015-01-01

    Businesses are increasingly concerned about water scarcity and its financial impacts, as well as competing needs of other stakeholders and ecosystems. Industrialized watersheds may be at more serious risk from water scarcity than previously understood because industrial and municipal users have inelastic demand and a high value for water. Previous water risk assessments have failed to sufficiently capture these economic aspects of water risk. We illustrate how hydro-economic modeling can be u...

  11. Reactions to children's transgressions in at-risk caregivers: does mitigating information, type of transgression, or caregiver directive matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, Lauren M; Skowronski, John J; Crouch, Julie L; Milner, Joel S; Zengel, Bettina

    2014-05-01

    This study examined whether caregivers who exhibit high risk for child physical abuse differ from low-risk caregivers in reactions to transgressing children. Caregivers read vignettes describing child transgressions. These vignettes varied in: (a) the type of transgression described (moral, conventional, personal), (b) presentation of transgression-mitigating information (present, absent), and (c) whether a directive to avoid the transgression was in the vignette (yes, no). After reading each vignette, caregivers provided ratings reflecting their: (a) perceptions of transgression wrongness, (b) internal attributions about the transgressing child, (c) perceptions of the transgressing child's hostile intent, (d) own expected negative post-transgression affect, and (e) perceived likelihood of responding to the transgression with discipline that displayed power assertion and/or induction. For moral transgressions (cruelty, dishonesty, hostility, or greed), mitigating information reduced caregiver expectations that they would feel negative affect and, subsequent to the transgression, use disciplinary strategies that display power assertion. These mitigating effects were smaller among at-risk caregivers than among low-risk caregivers. Moreover, when transgressions disobeyed a directive, among low-risk caregivers, mitigating information reduced the expectation that responses to transgressions would include inductive disciplinary strategies, but it did not do so among at-risk caregivers. In certain circumstances, compared to low-risk caregivers, at-risk caregivers expect to be relatively unaffected by transgression-mitigating information. These results suggest that interventions that increase an at-risk caregiver's ability to properly assess and integrate mitigating information may play a role in reducing the caregiver's risk of child physical abuse. PMID:24075063

  12. Satellite-Derived River Ice Information for Improved Flood-Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, K.; Warren, S.; Howell, C.; Puestow, T.; Randell, C.; Adlakha, P.; Khan, A.; Mahabir, C.; Tang, P.; Novik, N.; Burakov, D.; Alasset, P.

    2009-12-01

    The development of ice covers on large rivers can result in ice jamming and extensive flooding. Decision makers require up-to-date information on river ice development to identify and mitigate potential hazards. Satellite based monitoring services offer an ideal method to collect information on river ice repeatedly and consistently throughout the ice season. Recently launched satellites, such RADARSAT-2, provide a number of improved capabilities, such as higher spatial resolution and multiple polarization modes, which could potentially enhance river ice monitoring services. A major motivation for this research was to improve the satellite-based river ice monitoring service currently delivered to a variety of end users under C-COREs Polar View initiative, by evaluating the potential of dual-polarized SAR data for improved river ice classification. A project was initiated to evaluate the utility of dual-pol (HH and HV) SAR data for river ice monitoring, and aims to develop a new river ice classification algorithm with test sites in Canada and Russia. EO data and field data were collected from 2005 to 2008, and were correlated by date and location to identify river ice training sites. Field data include annotated maps, aerial and field photographs, aerial video, ice observer reports and emails from end users in the field. Dual-pol SAR data combined with field data were used to develop a quadratic discriminant classifier algorithm based on image backscatter values and texture measures derived from the Grey Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM). A sequential forward selection algorithm was employed to select the set of variables used in the classification algorithm. The results of this analysis indicate an improved separability of ice classes resulting from the incorporation of both the HV channel and GLCM texture measures. The differentiation of ice types was further improved by using a region-based approach, rather than pixel-based classification. Validation of the resulting dual-pol, region-based classification algorithm with ground-truth data showed an overall classification accuracy in excess of 90%. EO-based monitoring has significant potential to guide aerial and field reconnaissance missions to cover specific river sections instead of relying on a systematic coverage, which might miss critical developments. Likewise, EO-based observations can be gathered on days where flights or field visits are not possible (e.g. night-time), or acquired over expanded areas beyond typical flight paths or areas of field reconnaissance. The enhanced ability to track ice front progress and characterize critical ice types makes EO-based monitoring a powerful tool for decision makers concerned with mitigating ice-related flood risk. This work is supported by the Canadian Space Agency under the Earth Observation Application Development Program (EOADP). The data came from the European Space Agency, under the GMES project.

  13. Risk Mitigation Strategies for Adverse Reactions Associated with the Disease-Modifying Drugs in Multiple Sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subei, Adnan M; Ontaneda, Daniel

    2015-09-01

    Over the past several years, the number of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) for the treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS) has doubled in number. The 13 approved agents have shown a wide range of efficacy and safety in their clinical trials and post-marketing experience. While the availability of the newer agents allows for a wider selection of therapy for clinicians and patients, there is a need for careful understanding of the benefits and risks of each agent. Several factors such as the medication efficacy, side-effect profile, patient's preference, and co-morbidities need to be considered. An individualized treatment approach is thus imperative. In this review, risk stratification and mitigation strategies of the various disease-modifying agents are discussed. PMID:26407624

  14. Mitigation of fire damage and escalation by fireproofing: A risk-based strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Passive fire protection by the application of fireproofing materials is a crucial safety barrier in the prevention of the escalation of fire scenarios. Fireproofing improves the capacity of process items and of support structures to maintain their structural integrity during a fire, preventing or at least delaying the collapse of structural elements. Maintenance and cost issues require, however, to apply such protection only where an actual risk of severe fire scenarios is present. Available methodologies for fireproofing application in on-shore installation do not consider the effect of jet-fires. In the present study, a risk-based methodology aimed at the protection from both pool fire and jet fire escalation was developed. The procedure addresses both the prevention of domino effect and the mitigation of asset damage due to the primary fire scenario. The method is mainly oriented to early design application, allowing the identification of fireproofing zones in the initial phases of lay-out definition.

  15. 30 CFR 250.223 - What mitigation measures information must accompany the EP?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... accompany the EP? 250.223 Section 250.223 Mineral Resources MINERALS MANAGEMENT SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE... Contents of Exploration Plans (ep) 250.223 What mitigation measures information must accompany the EP? (a... measures you will use must accompany your EP. (b) If there is reason to believe that protected species...

  16. Using Robust Decision Making to Assess and Mitigate the Risks of Natural Hazards in Developing Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalra, N.; Lempert, R. J.; Peyraud, S.

    2012-12-01

    Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) ranks fourth globally among coastal cities most vulnerable to climate change and already experiences extensive routine flooding. In the coming decades, increased precipitation, rising sea levels, and land subsidence could permanently inundate a large portion of the city's population, place the poor at particular risk, and threaten new economic development in low-lying areas. HCMC is not alone in facing the impacts of natural hazards exacerbated by uncertain future climate change, development, and other deep uncertainties. Assessing and managing these risks is a tremendous challenge, particularly in developing countries which face pervasive shortages of the data and models generally used to plan for such changes. Using HCMC as a case study, this talk will demonstrate how a scenario-based approach that uses robustness as a decision and planning element can help developing countries assess future climate risk and manage the risk of natural disasters. In contrast to traditional approaches which treat uncertainty with a small number of handcrafted scenarios, this talk will emphasize how robust decision making, which uses modeling to explore over thousands of scenarios, can identify potential vulnerabilities to HCMC's emerging flood risk management strategy and suggest potential responses. The talk will highlight several novel features of the collaboration with the HCMC Steering Committee for Flood Control. First, it examines several types of risk -- risk to the poor, risk to the non-poor, and risk to the economy -- and illustrates how management policies have different implications for these sectors. Second, it demonstrates how diverse and sometimes incomplete climate, hydrologic, socioeconomic, GIS, and other data and models can be integrated into a modeling framework to develop and evaluate many scenarios of flood risk. Third, it illustrates the importance of non-structural policies such as land use management and building design to manage flood risk. Finally, it demonstrates how an adaptive management strategy that evolves over time and implements management options in response to new information can more effectively mitigate risks from natural disasters than can static policies.; A scatter plot of risk to the poor and non-poor in 1000 different scenarios under eight different risk management options (differentiated by color).

  17. Comonotonic measures of multivariates risks

    OpenAIRE

    Galichon, Alfred; Ekeland, Ivar; Henry, Marc

    2009-01-01

    We propose a multivariate extension of a well-known characterization by S. Kusuoka of regular and coherent risk measures as maximal correlation functionals. This involves an extension of the notion of comonotonicity to random vectors through generalized quantile functions. Moreover, we propose to replace the current law invari- ance, subadditivity and comonotonicity axioms by an equivalent property we call strong coherence and that we argue has more natural economic interpretation. Finally, w...

  18. Loss of flow accident mitigation measures of mixed spectrum SCWR-M

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on a revised version of RELAP5, a model of the mixed spectrum supercritical water cooled reactor (SCWR-M) system was established. Some important parameters were chosen as the main parameters to analysis the transient behaviour of SCWR-M and fix mitigation measures during loss of flow accident (LOFA). Reactor coolant pump (RCP) coast-down time of more than 15 seconds, RPV upper water volume of more than 27 m3, and safety injection of more than 5% of the system design flow are the main mitigation measures for the LOFA of SCWR-M. (authors)

  19. An economic and geographic appraisal of a spatial natural hazard risk: a study of landslide mitigation rules

    OpenAIRE

    R L Bernknopf; D S Brookshire; Campbell, R H; C D Shapiro

    1988-01-01

    Natural hazards in the form of landslides are pervasive throughout the United States. Efficient mitigation of natural hazards requires a spatial representation of the risk, based upon the geographic distribution of physical parameters and man-related development activities. Through such a representation, the spatial probability of landslides based upon physical science concepts is estimated for Cincinnati, Ohio. Mitigation programs designed to reduce loss from landslide natural hazards are th...

  20. Robustness and informativeness of systemic risk measures

    OpenAIRE

    Löffler, Gunter; Raupach, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Recent literature has proposed new methods for measuring the systemic risk of financial institutions based on observed stock returns. In this paper we examine the reliability and robustness of such risk measures, focusing on CoVaR, marginal expected shortfall, and option-based tail risk estimates. We show that CoVaR exhibits undesired characteristics in the way it responds to idiosyncratic risk. In the presence of contagion, the risk measures provide conflicting signals on the systemic risk o...

  1. Cooperative measures to mitigate Asia-Pacific maritime conflicts.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chai, Wen-Chung (Taiwan Navy)

    2003-05-01

    The economies of East Asia are predominantly export based and, therefore, place special emphasis on the security of the sea lines of communication (SLOCs). Due to economic globalization, the United States shares these concerns. Cooperative measures by the concerned parties could reduce the potential for disruption by maritime conflicts. Primary threats against the SLOCs are disputes over the resources under the seas, disputes over some small island groups, disputes between particular parties (China-Taiwan and North-South Korea), or illegal activities like smuggling, piracy, or terrorism. This paper provides an overview on these threats, issue by issue, to identify common elements and needed cooperation. Cooperation on other topics such as search and rescue, fisheries protection, and oil spill response may help support improved relations to prevent maritime conflicts. Many technologies can help support maritime cooperation, including improved communications links, tracking and emergency beacon devices, and satellite imaging. Appropriate technical and political means are suggested for each threat to the SLOCs.

  2. Flood risk and mitigation strategies in the southeastern suburbs of Fez City (Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akdim, Brahim

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The risk of flooding in the south-eastern suburbs of Fez (Morocco was engendered by multiple factors (topographic, hydro-climatic, land use, social, technical. This study focuses on the Aouinate El Hajjaj district and shows that the district’s evolution, characterized by informal transactions (speculation, land squatting, construction without respect of norms and regulations was a major factor in the genesis of flood risk as the district extended into vulnerable sectors. Public efforts to resolve the district’s crisis and reinforce its environmental safety began in 1993 (2 dams and channels were constructed, street were paved and basic facilities were provided, such as drinking water, sanitation and electricity, but the risk factors persist. Technical solutions are locally recognized to be useful, but they are not sufficient. Other mitigating actions including the reduction of physical and socioeconomic vulnerability and the strengthening of the social structure of the community should be considered in a systemic point of view. They constitute elements of an alternative strategy in urban planning and development and must be framed by laws and regulations. Their use could be undertaken at individual, community and State levels depending on the specific dimension of each measure. A vision which integrates local and regional scales is essential in risk studies, in order to design a more sustainable action. The role of non-governmental organisations is important in flood mitigation and urban environmental policy. The incorporation of flood prevention as a parameter of urban planning should be considered by planners and the local population.En los suburbios del sudeste de Fez (Marruecos el riesgo de inundaciones responde a fenómenos de diversa naturaleza física y humana (topográficos, hidrológicos, climáticos, utilización del suelo, factores sociales y técnicos. En este trabajo se analiza la situación del distrito de Aouinate El Hajjaj, en donde diferentes procesos derivados de la ocupación de este espacio (especulación, proliferación de asentamientos informales, edificación sin respeto a las normas y reglamentos… han constituido factores decisivos en la génesis de los riesgos de inundación que actualmente afectan a la zona. Aunque los esfuerzos públicos para resolver la crisis del distrito y reforzar su seguridad frente a las adversidades del medio natural comenzaron en 1993 (construcción de dos presas y de canales, pavimentado de calles, dotación y mejora de los equipamientos básicos como el abastecimiento de agua potable y de electricidad, obras de saneamiento, etc., los factores de riesgo aún persisten. Las soluciones técnicas aplicadas han sido reconocidas por su utilidad, pero es necesario trabajar en otros ámbitos, como la reducción de la vulnerabilidad física, social y ambiental, y en el reforzamiento de la estructura social de la comunidad, lo que permitiría abordar el problema desde un punto de vista sistémico. Todos ellos constituyen los elementos de una estrategia alternativa en la planificación y el desarrollo urbano que deben ser enmarcadas por leyes y reglamentos. Su uso podría llevarse a cabo a nivel individual, comunitario y estatal —en función de la dimensión específica de cada caso—, con el fin de fomentar una estrategia de integración entre las escalas locales y regionales que contribuya a concebir acciones más sostenibles en los estudios de mitigación de los riesgos ambientales. Así mismo, el papel de las organizaciones no gubernamentales es importante en esta cuestión, y la política medioambiental, las acciones de los diferentes agentes que intervienen en el planeamiento urbano y la población local, deben estar sensibilizados y comprometidos con las estrategias para la prevención de inundaciones. [fr] Le risque d’inondation dans les banlieues du Sud-Est de la ville de Fez (Maroc sont produits par des facteurs multiples (topographiques, hydro-climatiques, relatifs aux usages du sol, sociaux, techniques. L’étude vise le district d’Aouinate El Hajjaj et montre que son évolution, résultat de transactions informelles (spéculation, occupation illégale de terres, constructions ne respectant pas les normes et les régulations, a joué un rôle majeur dans la naissance du risque d’inondation au fur et à mesure que le district s’étalait vers des secteurs vulnérables. Les efforts des autorités pour donner une solution à la crise du district et renforcer sa sécurité environnementale ont commencé en 1993 (construction de deux barrages et de canaux, pavement des rues, dotation d’infrastructures essentielles comme l’eau potable, assainissement et électricité, mais les facteurs de risque existent toujours. Les solutions techniques sont considérées utiles localement, mais elles ne sont pas suffisantes. D’autres actions correctrices, comme la réduction de la vulnérabilité physique et socioéconomique ou le renforcement de la structure sociale communautaire, devraient être envisagées d’un point de vue systémique. Elles représentent des éléments d’une stratégie alternative dans l’aménagement et le développement urbain et elles doivent être encadrées par des lois et des régulations. Elles peuvent être entreprises aussi bien à l’échelle individuelle ou communautaire que par l’État, selon la dimension spécifique de chaque mesure. La vision qui intègre l’échelle locale et régionale est essentielle pour l’étude des risques afin de concevoir une action plus durable. Le rôle des organisations non gouvernementales est important dans la mitigation des inondations et la politique environnementale urbaine. L’incorporation de la prévention des inondations comme un paramètre de l’aménagement urbain doit être prise en compte par les planificateurs et par les populations locales.

  3. The VUELCO project consortium: new interdisciplinary research for improved risk mitigation and management during volcanic unrest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottsmann, J.

    2012-04-01

    Volcanic unrest is a complex multi-hazard phenomenon of volcanism. The fact that unrest may, but not necessarily must lead to an imminent eruption contributes significant uncertainty to short-term hazard assessment of volcanic activity world-wide. Although it is reasonable to assume that all eruptions are associated with precursory activity of some sort, the knowledge of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting unrest signals and imminent eruption is, today, inadequate to deal effectively with crises of volcanic unrest. This results predominantly from the uncertainties in identifying the causative processes of unrest and as a consequence in forecasting its short-term evolution. However, key for effective risk mitigation and management during unrest is the early and reliable identification of changes in the subsurface dynamics of a volcano and their assessment as precursors to an impending eruption. The VUELCO project consortium has come together for a multi-disciplinary attack on the origin, nature and significance of volcanic unrest from the scientific contributions generated by collaboration of ten partners in Europe and Latin America. Dissecting the science of monitoring data from unrest periods at six type volcanoes in Italy, Spain, the West Indies, Mexico and Ecuador the consortium will create global strategies for 1) enhanced monitoring capacity and value, 2) mechanistic data interpretation and 3) identification of reliable eruption precursors; all from the geophysical, geochemical and geodetic fingerprints of unrest episodes. Experiments will establish a mechanistic understanding of subsurface processes capable of inducing unrest and aid in identifying key volcano monitoring parameters indicative of the nature of unrest processes. Numerical models will help establish a link between the processes and volcano monitoring data to inform on the causes of unrest and its short-term evolution. Using uncertainty assessment and new short-term probabilistic hazard forecasting tools the scientific knowledge base will provide the crucial parameters for a comprehensive and best-practice approach to 1) risk mitigation, 2) communication, 3) decision-making and 4) crisis management during unrest periods. The VUELCO project consortium efforts will generate guidance in the definition and implementation of strategic options for effective risk mitigation, management and governance during unrest episodes. Such a mechanistic platform of understanding, impacting on the synergy of scientists, policy-makers, civil protection authorities, decision-makers, and the public, will place volcanic unrest management on a new basis, with European expertise at its peak. The project is financed by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development, Area "Environment".

  4. Severe accident approach - final report. Evaluation of design measures for severe accident prevention and consequence mitigation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tentner, A. M.; Parma, E.; Wei, T.; Wigeland, R.; Nuclear Engineering Division; SNL; INL

    2010-03-01

    An important goal of the US DOE reactor development program is to conceptualize advanced safety design features for a demonstration Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR). The treatment of severe accidents is one of the key safety issues in the design approach for advanced SFR systems. It is necessary to develop an in-depth understanding of the risk of severe accidents for the SFR so that appropriate risk management measures can be implemented early in the design process. This report presents the results of a review of the SFR features and phenomena that directly influence the sequence of events during a postulated severe accident. The report identifies the safety features used or proposed for various SFR designs in the US and worldwide for the prevention and/or mitigation of Core Disruptive Accidents (CDA). The report provides an overview of the current SFR safety approaches and the role of severe accidents. Mutual understanding of these design features and safety approaches is necessary for future collaborations between the US and its international partners as part of the GEN IV program. The report also reviews the basis for an integrated safety approach to severe accidents for the SFR that reflects the safety design knowledge gained in the US during the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor (ALMR) and Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) programs. This approach relies on inherent reactor and plant safety performance characteristics to provide additional safety margins. The goal of this approach is to prevent development of severe accident conditions, even in the event of initiators with safety system failures previously recognized to lead directly to reactor damage.

  5. Measurements of electron cloud growth and mitigation in dipole, quadrupole, and wiggler magnets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calvey, J.R., E-mail: jrc97@cornell.edu; Hartung, W.; Li, Y.; Livezey, J.A.; Makita, J.; Palmer, M.A.; Rubin, D.

    2015-01-11

    Retarding field analyzers (RFAs), which provide a localized measurement of the electron cloud, have been installed throughout the Cornell Electron Storage Ring (CESR), in different magnetic field environments. This paper describes the RFA designs developed for dipole, quadrupole, and wiggler field regions, and provides an overview of measurements made in each environment. The effectiveness of electron cloud mitigations, including coatings, grooves, and clearing electrodes, are assessed with the RFA measurements.

  6. Measurements of electron cloud growth and mitigation in dipole, quadrupole, and wiggler magnets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Retarding field analyzers (RFAs), which provide a localized measurement of the electron cloud, have been installed throughout the Cornell Electron Storage Ring (CESR), in different magnetic field environments. This paper describes the RFA designs developed for dipole, quadrupole, and wiggler field regions, and provides an overview of measurements made in each environment. The effectiveness of electron cloud mitigations, including coatings, grooves, and clearing electrodes, are assessed with the RFA measurements

  7. 30 CFR 250.254 - What mitigation measures information must accompany the DPP or DOCD?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... accompany the DPP or DOCD? 250.254 Section 250.254 Mineral Resources MINERALS MANAGEMENT SERVICE, DEPARTMENT... Documents (docd) 250.254 What mitigation measures information must accompany the DPP or DOCD? (a) If you... you will use must accompany your DPP or DOCD. (b) If there is reason to believe that protected...

  8. Predictability and extended-range prognosis in natural hazard risk mitigation process: A case study over west Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsangouras, Ioannis T.; Nastos, Panagiotis T.

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazards pose an increasing threat to society and new innovative techniques or methodologies are necessary to be developed, in order to enhance the risk mitigation process in nowadays. It is commonly accepted that disaster risk reduction is a vital key for future successful economic and social development. The systematic improvement accuracy of extended-range prognosis products, relating with monthly and seasonal predictability, introduced them as a new essential link in risk mitigation procedure. Aiming at decreasing the risk, this paper presents the use of seasonal and monthly forecasting process that was tested over west Greece from September to December, 2013. During that season significant severe weather events occurred, causing significant impact to the local society (severe storms/rainfalls, hail, flash floods, etc). Seasonal and monthly forecasting products from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) depicted, with probabilities stratified by terciles, areas of Greece where significant weather may occur. As atmospheric natural hazard early warning systems are able to deliver warnings up to 72 hours in advance, this study illustrates that extended-range prognosis could be introduced as a new technique in risk mitigation. Seasonal and monthly forecast products could highlight extended areas where severe weather events may occur in one month lead time. In addition, a risk mitigation procedure, that extended prognosis products are adopted, is also presented providing useful time to preparedness process at regional administration level.

  9. Comparison of PAM Systems for Acoustic Monitoring and Further Risk Mitigation Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Stefan; Kreimeyer, Roman; Knoll, Michaela

    2016-01-01

    We present results of the SIRENA 2011 research cruises conducted by the NATO Undersea Research Centre (NURC) and joined by the Research Department for Underwater Acoustics and Geophysics (FWG), Bundeswehr Technical Centre (WTD 71) and the Universities of Kiel and Pavia. The cruises were carried out in the Ligurian Sea. The main aim of the FWG was to test and evaluate the newly developed towed hydrophone array as a passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) tool for risk mitigation applications. The system was compared with the PAM equipment used by the other participating institutions. Recorded sounds were used to improve an automatic acoustic classifier for marine mammals, and validated acoustic detections by observers were compared with the results of the classifier. PMID:26611016

  10. Assuring containment in reactor accidents: recent advances concerning the mitigation of the hydrogen risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article presents the different programs led in laboratories concerning the mitigation of the hydrogen risk in nuclear power plants. 3 aspects are considered: the generation of hydrogen during a reactor major accident, the distribution of this gas inside the reactor containment building and the different combustion modes of hydrogen. Studies show that it is difficult to prevent at any time and place the formation of a combustible mixture despite the presence of hydrogen recombiners. Studies have led to the setting of criteria concerning flame acceleration and detonation-explosion transitions, it has been shown that a mixture whose expansion parameter stays below a limit value can not lead to a flame acceleration over 400 m/s. (A.C.)

  11. Current issues in dietary acrylamide:formation,mitigation and risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedreschi, F.; Salome Mariotti, M.; Granby, Kit

    2014-01-01

    . For some products the addition of glycine or asparaginase reduces AA formation during baking. Since, for potatoes, the limiting substrate is reducing sugars, increases in sugar content in potatoes during storage then introduce some difficulties and potentially quite large variations in the AA content...... investigation of AA precursors, mechanisms of AA formation and AA mitigation technologies in potato, cereal and coffee products. Additionally, most relevant issues of AA risk assessment are discussed. New technologies tested from laboratory to industrial scale face, as a major challenge, the reduction of AA...... content of browned food, while still maintaining its attractive organoleptic properties. Reducing sugars such as glucose and fructose are the major contributors to AA in potato-based products. On the other hand, the limiting substrate of AA formation in cereals and coffee is the free amino acid asparagine...

  12. Effect of Wind Intermittency on the Electric Grid: Mitigating the Risk of Energy Deficits

    CERN Document Server

    George, Sam O; Nguyen, Scott V

    2010-01-01

    Successful implementation of California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) mandating 33 percent renewable energy generation by 2020 requires inclusion of a robust strategy to mitigate increased risk of energy deficits (blackouts) due to short time-scale (sub 1 hour) intermittencies in renewable energy sources. Of these RPS sources, wind energy has the fastest growth rate--over 25% year-over-year. If these growth trends continue, wind energy could make up 15 percent of California's energy portfolio by 2016 (wRPS15). However, the hour-to-hour variations in wind energy (speed) will create large hourly energy deficits that require installation of other, more predictable, compensation generation capacity and infrastructure. Compensating for the energy deficits of wRPS15 could potentially cost tens of billions in additional dollar-expenditure for fossil and / or nuclear generation capacity. There is a real possibility that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions will miss the California ...

  13. Recommended Mitigation Measures for an Influenza Pandemic in Remote and Isolated First Nations Communities of Ontario, Canada: A Community-Based Participatory Research Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia A. Charania

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Influenza pandemics disproportionately impact remote and/or isolated Indigenous communities worldwide. The differential risk experienced by such communities warrants the recommendation of specific mitigation measures. Interviewer-administered questionnaires were conducted with adult key health care informants from three remote and isolated Canadian First Nations communities of sub-Arctic Ontario. Forty-eight mitigation measures (including the setting, pandemic period, trigger, and duration were questioned. Participants responses were summarized and collected data were deductively and inductively coded. The participants recommended 41 of the questioned mitigation measures, and often differed from previous literature and national recommendations. Results revealed that barriers, such as overcrowded housing, limited supplies, and health care infrastructure, impacted the feasibility of implementing mitigation measures. These findings suggest that pandemic plans should recommend control strategies for remote and isolated Canadian First Nations communities that may not be supported in other communities. These findings highlight the importance of engaging locally impacted populations using participatory approaches in policy decision-making processes. Other countries with remote and/or isolated Indigenous communities are encouraged to include recommendations for mitigation measures that specifically address the unique needs of such communities in an effort to improve their health outcomes during the next influenza pandemic.

  14. Multiple-pollutant cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gas mitigation measures in the UK agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► Multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curves can inform integrated environmental policy. ► We incorporated the co-effects on NH3, NO3−, P and sediment, as monetary values, into the UK GHG MACC. ► Adding co-effects modifies the GHG MACC, though with little impact unless using high damage values. ► Further research is needed on the co-effects of GHG mitigation measures and on damage values. ► Analysis should focus on the co-effects of measures that are slightly above or below the threshold. -- Abstract: This paper develops multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curve analysis to identify an optimal set of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures considering the trade-offs and synergies with other environmental pollutants. The analysis is applied to UK agriculture, a sector expected to make a contribution to the national GHG mitigation effort. Previous analyses using marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) have determined the sector's GHG abatement potential based on the cost-effectiveness of a variety of technically feasible mitigation measures. Most of these measures have external effects on other pollution loads arising from agricultural activities. Here the monetary values of four of the most important impacts to water and air (specifically ammonia, nitrate, phosphorous and sediment) are included in the cost-effectiveness analysis. The resulting multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curve (MP MACC) informs the design of sustainable climate change policies by showing how the MP MACC for the UK agriculture can differ from the GHG MACC. The analysis also highlights research gaps, and suggests a need to understand the wider environmental effects of GHG mitigation options and to reduce the uncertainty in pollutant damage cost estimates

  15. Measuring Economic Downside Risk and Severity : Growth at Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Yan; Yao, Yudong

    2001-01-01

    Output collapses, and crises are a fact of life. Severe economic downturns occur periodically, and have grave consequences on the poor. The authors propose a new measurement for economic downside risk, and severity: Growth at risk. Similar to the concept of Value at Risk in finance, Growth at Risk summarizes the expected maximum economic downturn over a target horizon at a given confidence...

  16. A review of selected state of the art applications of diagnostic measurements for radon mitigation planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Air and Energy Engineering Laboratory of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has, since the fall of 1984, supported a program to develop and demonstrate radon mitigation techniques for single family detached dwellings. To date approximately sixty houses with radon concentrations ranging from 20 to 600 rhoCi/L (740-22,000 Bq/m/sup -3/) have been investigated and have had radon mitigation plans developed for demonstration purposes. This paper compares and evaluates the relative utility of selected diagnostic measurements used by EPA contractors in their efforts to understand the indoor radon problem and select the most appropriate mitigation for a specific house. The diagnostic measurements reported include: grab sampling of infiltrating soil gas from cracks or openings around utility entries to below-grade house structure, and of soil gas under the slab and in hollow walls, air flow and air communications measurements using depressurization under basement floors and around walls, whole house infiltration (leakage area) measurements, differential pressure measurements between various zones inside and outside the house, gamma measurements, and radon flux measurements over exposed soil and through basement walls and floors

  17. A Risk-Based Strategy for Evaluating Mitigation Options for Process-Formed Compounds in Food: Workshop Proceedings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanlon, Paul; Brorby, Gregory P; Krishan, Mansi

    2016-05-01

    Processing (eg, cooking, grinding, drying) has changed the composition of food throughout the course of human history; however, awareness of process-formed compounds, and the potential need to mitigate exposure to those compounds, is a relatively recent phenomenon. In May 2015, the North American Branch of the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI North America) Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety held a workshop on the risk-based process for mitigation of process-formed compounds. This workshop aimed to gain alignment from academia, government, and industry on a risk-based process for proactively assessing the need for and benefit of mitigation of process-formed compounds, including criteria to objectively assess the impact of mitigation as well as research needed to support this process. Workshop participants provided real-time feedback on a draft framework in the form of a decision tree developed by the ILSI North America Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety to a panel of experts, and they discussed the importance of communicating the value of such a process to the larger scientific community and, ultimately, the public. The outcome of the workshop was a decision tree that can be used by the scientific community and could form the basis of a global approach to assessing the risks associated with mitigation of process-formed compounds. PMID:27102178

  18. Geologic carbon sequestration as a global strategy to mitigate CO2 emissions: Sustainability and environmental risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oldenburg, C.M.

    2011-04-01

    Fossil fuels are abundant, inexpensive to produce, and are easily converted to usable energy by combustion as demonstrated by mankind's dependence on fossil fuels for over 80% of its primary energy supply (13). This reliance on fossil fuels comes with the cost of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions that exceed the rate at which CO{sub 2} can be absorbed by terrestrial and oceanic systems worldwide resulting in increases in atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration as recorded by direct measurements over more than five decades (14). Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas linked to global warming and associated climate change, the impacts of which are currently being observed around the world, and projections of which include alarming consequences such as water and food shortages, sea level rise, and social disruptions associated with resource scarcity (15). The current situation of a world that derives the bulk of its energy from fossil fuel in a manner that directly causes climate change equates to an energy-climate crisis. Although governments around the world have only recently begun to consider policies to avoid the direst projections of climate change and its impacts, sustainable approaches to addressing the crisis are available. The common thread of feasible strategies to the energy climate crisis is the simultaneous use of multiple approaches based on available technologies (e.g., 16). Efficiency improvements (e.g., in building energy use), increased use of natural gas relative to coal, and increased development of renewables such as solar, wind, and geothermal, along with nuclear energy, are all available options that will reduce net CO{sub 2} emissions. While improvements in efficiency can be made rapidly and will pay for themselves, the slower pace of change and greater monetary costs associated with increased use of renewables and nuclear energy suggests an additional approach is needed to help bridge the time period between the present and a future when low-carbon energy is considered cheap enough to replace fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is one such bridging technology (1). CCS has been the focus of an increasing amount of research over the last 15-20 years and is the subject of a comprehensive IPCC report that thoroughly covers the subject (1). CCS is currently being carried out in several countries around the world in conjunction with natural gas extraction (e.g., 2, 3) and enhanced oil recovery (17). Despite this progress, widespread deployment of CCS remains the subject of research and future plans rather than present action on the scale needed to mitigate emissions from the perspective of climate change. The reasons for delay in deploying CCS more widely are concerns about cost (18), regulatory and legal uncertainty (19), and potential environmental impacts (21). This chapter discusses the long-term (decadal) sustainability and environmental hazards associated with the geologic CO{sub 2} storage (GCS) component of large-scale CCS (e.g., 20). Discussion here barely touches on capture and transport of CO{sub 2} which will occur above ground and which are similar to existing engineering, chemical processing, and pipeline transport activities and are therefore easier to evaluate with respect to risk assessment and feasibility. The focus of this chapter is on the more uncertain part of CCS, namely geologic storage. The primary concern for sustainability of GCS is whether there is sufficient capacity in sedimentary basins worldwide to contain the large of amounts of CO{sub 2} needed to address climate change. But there is also a link between sustainability and environmental impacts. Specifically, if GCS is found to cause unacceptable impacts that are considered worse than its climate-change mitigation benefits, the approach will not be widely adopted. Hence, GCS has elements of sustainability insofar as capacity of the subsurface for CO{sub 2} is concerned, and also in terms of whether the associated environmental risks are acceptable or not to the public.

  19. Stochastic optimized life cycle models for risk mitigation in power system applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This ork shows the relevance of stochastic optimization in complex power system applications. It was proven that usual deterministic mean value models not only predict inaccurate results but are also most often on the risky side. The change in the market effects all kind of evaluation processes (e.g. fuel type and technology but especially financial engineering evaluations) in the endeavor of a strict risk mitigation comparison. But not only IPPs also traditional Utilities dash for risk/return optimized investment opportunities. In this study I developed a 2-phase model which can support a decision-maker in finding optimal solutions on investment and profitability. It has to be stated, that in this study no objective function will be optimized in an algorithmically way. On the one hand focus is laid on finding optimal solutions out of different choices (highest return at lowest possible risk); on the other hand the endeavor was to provide a decision makers with a better assessment of the likelihood of outcomes on investment considerations. The first (deterministic) phase computes in a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) approach (Life cycle Calculation; DCF method). Most of the causal relations (day of operation, escalation of personal expanses, inflation, depreciation period, etc.) are defined within this phase. The second (stochastic) phase is a total new way in optimizing risk/return relations. With the some decision theory mathematics an expected value of stochastic solutions can be calculated. Furthermore probability function have to be defined out of historical data. The model not only supports profitability analysis (including regress and sensitivity analysis) but also supports a decision-maker in a decision process. Emphasis was laid on risk-return analysis, which can give the decision-maker first hand informations of the type of risk return problem (risk concave, averse or linear). Five important parameters were chosen which have the characteristics of typical prospective unpredictability. Other parameters which are not typical totally uncertain in the future are handled within the deterministic live cycle model (parameters such as escalation of insurance costs, personal costs, etc.). One major result in comparing the deterministic with a stochastic calculation was that without changing a mean value parameter the result of stochastic calculation can vary from the deterministic calculation tremendously. In this study I proved that such tools for risk/return analysis could provide helpful informations to a decision-maker. The only major prerequisite for a good solution is that the user has reliable statistical empirical data available and that he spends in fitting the distribution curves to these. (author)

  20. Debris Flow Risk mitigation by the means of flexible barriers. Experimental and field tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canelli, L.; Ferrero, A. M.; Segalini, A.

    2012-04-01

    Debris flow risk mitigation using net barriers is an option that was not considered until few years ago, probably because of the lack of scientific evidences about their efficiency and solid guidelines for their design and construction. On site evidences (Segalini et al, 2008) showed that a rock fall deformable barrier can efficiently intercept the whole volume or just a portion of the mobilized debris without losing its stability and efficiency, actually performing a different task form that it was originally designed for. Although the final purpose of both types of barriers (rock fall and debris) is to reduce the impact energy of the moving mass by dissipating impact energy through the deformation of the net and of the dissipating elements, it is noteworthy that the physics of the impact is extremely different between the two phenomena. The rock fall barrier needs to dissipate the energy of a single block generally concentrated on the center of the net panel (design conditions). The debris flow barrier, generally installed inside a debris channel, should be able to dissipate the impact energy that the debris induces across the whole section of the channel. Moreover, the recurring characteristic of the debris flows will cause multiple impact on the barrier and therefore, the structure should be able to absorb a significant amount of energy even if partially filled and considerably deformed. In order to introduce useful guidelines for the design and production of debris flow net barriers, this paper describes: 1. Part of the results obtained from the laboratory experiment carried out in a scaled channel and aimed to estimate the most realistic thrust vs time relationship induced by a debris flow on a deformable and rigid structure; these results were partially presented last year at the EGU 2011; 2. A large scale field test carried out in a quarry located in Tambre d'Alpago (Belluno Province) on the Eastern Italian Dolomites for the analysis of the behavior of a real scale deformable net barrier subjected to recurring impacts of small volumes, substantially dry, debris flows until the complete filling up of the channel. Laboratory tests were carried out using a small scale channel (40 cm wide channel and 4 m long) designed and installed at University of Parma in which were triggered flows of water saturated sand impacting with different typologies of barriers installed in order to measure the impact force of the generated flow. The field test has been conducted by artificially mobilizing volumes of quarry debris along a 50 m long and 2 m wide channel at the end of which a real scale deformable net barrier was installed. The impacts were monitored using five high speed video cameras, the deformation progress of the barrier induced by the impacts was obtained using two high shutter speed cameras configured and synchronized for a stereoscopic restitution. Forces on the structural steel cables where measured by installing five load cells between the cable and its foundation. Results obtained are presented and compared with the relevant literature.

  1. How HRP Research Results Contribute to Human Space Exploration Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lumpkins, Sarah; Mindock, Jennifer

    2014-01-01

    In addition to the scientific value of publications derived from research, results from Human Research Program (HRP) research also support HRP's goals of mitigating crew health and performance risks in space flight. Research results are used to build the evidence base characterizing crew health and performance risks, to support risk research plan development, to inform crew health and performance standards, and to provide technologies to programs for meeting those standards and optimizing crew health and performance in space. This talk will describe examples of how research results support these efforts. For example, HRP research results are used to revise or even create new standards for human space flight, which have been established to protect crew health and performance during flight, and prevent negative long-term health consequences due to space flight. These standards are based on the best available clinical and scientific evidence, as well as operational experience from previous space flight missions, and are reviewed as new evidence emerges. Research results are also used to update the HRP evidence base, which is comprised of a set of reports that provide a current record of the state of knowledge from research and operations for each of the defined human health and performance risks for future NASA exploration missions. A discussion of the role of evidence within the HRP architecture will also be presented. The scope of HRP research results extends well beyond publications, as they are used in several capacities to support HRP deliverables and, ultimately, the advancement of human space exploration beyond low-Earth orbit.

  2. Measuring reporting verifying. A primer on MRV for nationally appropriate mitigation actions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hinostroza, M. (ed.); Luetken, S.; Holm Olsen, K. (Technical Univ. of Denmark. UNEP Risoe Centre, Roskilde (Denmark)); Aalders, E.; Pretlove, B.; Peters, N. (Det Norske Veritas, Hellerup (Denmark))

    2012-03-15

    The requirements for measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) of nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) are one of the crucial topics on the agenda of international negotiations to address climate change mitigation. According to agreements so far, the general guidelines for domestic MRV are to be developed by Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA)1. Further, the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) will be conducting international consultations and analysis (ICA) of biennial update reports (BUR) to improve transparency of mitigation actions, which should be measured, reported and verified. 2. What is clear from undergoing discussions both at SBSTA and at SBI is that MRV for NAMAs should not be a burden for controlling greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions connected to economic activities. Instead, the MRV process should facilitate mitigation actions; encourage the redirection of investments and address concerns regarding carbon content of emission intensive operations of private and public companies and enterprises worldwide. While MRV requirements are being shaped within the Convention, there are a number of initiatives supporting developing countries moving forward with NAMA development and demonstration activities. How these actions shall be measured, reported and verified, however, remain unanswered. MRV is not new. It is present in most existing policies and frameworks related to climate change mitigation. With an aim to contribute to international debate and capacity building on this crucial issue, the UNEP Risoe Centre in cooperation with UNDP, are pleased to present this publication that through the direct collaboration with Det Norske Veritas (DNV) builds on existing MRV practices in current carbon markets; provides insights on how MRV for NAMAs can be performed and identifies elements and drivers to be considered when designing adequate MRV systems for NAMAs in developing countries. This primer is the second contribution in the emerging area of NAMAs and MRV. It is complemented by a recent publication on Low Carbon Development Strategies and NAMAs. (Author)

  3. Risk Measures via Heavy Tails

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kaňková, Vlasta

    Bratislava : Vydavatelstvo EKONÓM, 2012 - (Reiff, M.), s. 115-119 ISBN 978-80-225-3426-0. [Quantitative Methods in Economics (Multiple Criteria Decision Making XVI). Bratislava (SK), 30.05.2012-01.06.2012] R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP402/10/0956; GA ČR GAP402/11/0150; GA ČR GAP402/10/1610 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Static stochastic optimization problems * linear and nonlinear dependence * thin and heavz tails Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research; AH - Economics (UTIA-B) http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/E/kankova-risk measures via heavy tails.pdf

  4. Seismic Microzonation Study in Tabriz Metropolitan City for Earthquake Risk Mitigation x

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ebad Ghanbari

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Azerbaijan is the site of convergent plate collisions along the Alpine-Himalayan active mountain belt. Brittle faults in the Azerbaijan area are mostly Cenozoic in or younger. The data presented demonstrate clearly that geological structures are commonly repeated at all scales from outcrop to regional. Several regional earthquakes have been strongly felt and caused damages in and around Tabriz during history. Urban seismic risk is increasing with population growth and encroachment of vulnerable built in environment into areas susceptible seismic hazard. Seismic -hazard assessment an estimate of ground motion at the site of interest, taking into account instrumental and historical earthquake records, information on tectonics, geology, and attenuation characteristics of seismic waves Tabriz is important industrial city of Iran. It has a very high population density about 2.000000 people in area just 90 km2 . The main objective of the Tabriz seismic instrumentation and microzonation study was to carry out and propose new building in Tabriz and suburbs in order to apply these criteria its development programs and determine the potential for damage to existing constructions during earthquake motions, and finally earthquake risk mitigation assessment.

  5. Mitigating the Risk of Extreme Water Scarcity and Dependency: The Case of Jordan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joep F. Schyns

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Jordan faces great internal water scarcity and pollution, conflict over trans-boundary waters, and strong dependency on external water resources through trade. This paper analyzes these issues and subsequently reviews options to reduce the risk of extreme water scarcity and dependency. Based on estimates of water footprint, water availability, and virtual water trade, we find that groundwater consumption is nearly double the groundwater availability, water pollution aggravates blue water scarcity, and Jordan’s external virtual water import dependency is 86%. The review of response options yields 10 ingredients for a strategy for Jordan to mitigate the risks of extreme water scarcity and dependency. With respect to these ingredients, Jordan’s current water policy requires a strong redirection towards water demand management. Actual implementation of the plans in the national water strategy (against existing oppositions would be a first step. However, more attention should be paid to reducing water demand by changing the consumption pattern of Jordanian consumers. Moreover, unsustainable exploitation of the fossil Disi aquifer should soon be halted and planned desalination projects require careful consideration regarding the sustainability of their energy supply.

  6. Measuring operational risk in financial institutions

    OpenAIRE

    Plunus, Séverine; Hübner, Georges; Peters, Jean-Philippe

    2012-01-01

    The scarcity of internal loss databases tends to hinder the use of the advanced approaches for operational risk measurement (Advanced Measurement Approaches (AMA)) in financial institutions. As there is a greater variety in credit risk modelling, this article explores the applicability of a modified version of CreditRisk+ to operational loss data. Our adapted model, OpRisk+, works out very satisfying Values-at-Risk (VaR) at 95% level as compared with estimates drawn from sophisticated AMA mod...

  7. Implications of Climate Change Impacts on Regional Maize Production in the United States: Risk Mitigation Strategies and Food Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang Li

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Analyzing the impacts of climate change on regional maize production in the North Central and the South regions of the United States and proposing risk mitigation strategies have significant implications in the context of national and global food security. Unlike most estimation, we use an interdisciplinary approach and combine climatic variables along with economic inputs and technological improvement in the adapted Cobb-Douglas production function model. The production function is simulated through 2030 under a variety of climate change scenarios, and the results indicate that under the climate change South region tends to have opposite impacts relative to the North Central, the major maize production region in the United States. The results imply that one regions losses can be partially offset by the other regions gains. The different responses imply that the South region could provide potential risk mitigation to climate change within the United States and could help the nation and the world maintain maize supply stability. The results gained from this research could be used as cost-efficient climate change risk mitigation strategies for other agricultural commodities in other countries. They can also be used for public policies and advanced risk mitigation and diversification programs, and are expected to contribute to the sustainability of agriculture and the stability of international crop market price in the United States and the world.

  8. Hanford single-shell underground storage tank waste retrieval risk reduction through leak detection, monitoring, and mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A trade study was performed to evaluate and compare leakage detection, monitoring, and mitigation (LDMM) technologies. The technologies were evaluated for feasibility of application at the Hanford Site, life-cycle cost of application, contribution to risk reduction (effectiveness), and the resulting cost-benefit of each technology

  9. Feasibility study on earthquake early warning and operational earthquake forecasting for risk mitigation at nuclear power plants

    OpenAIRE

    Cauzzi, Carlo; Behr, Yannik; Clinton, John Francis; Le Guenan, Thomas; Douglas, John; Auclair, Samuel; Wiemer, Stefan; Wssner, Jochen; Caprio, Marta; Cua, Georgia

    2014-01-01

    Within the framework of the EC-funded project REAKT (Strategies and Tools for Real Time Earthquake Risk Reduction, FP7, contract no. 282862, 2011-2014, www.reaktproject.eu), a task concerns feasibility study and initial implementation of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) and timedependent seismic hazard analyses aimed at mitigating seismic risk at nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Switzerland. This study is jointly carried out by academic institutions (the Swiss Seismological Service at ETHZ and BR...

  10. Multivariate Climate-Weather Forecasting System: An Integrated Approach for Mitigating Agricultural Risks in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devineni, N.; Lall, U.; Perveen, S.

    2012-12-01

    While India has a long history of prediction of the All India Monsoon, work on spatially specific attributes of the monsoon, as well as monsoon break periods has only recently emerged. However, from a risk management context, prognostic information of a single variable such as total precipitation or average temperature will be of less utility especially for specific operational purposes. An integrated regional climate-weather forecast system covering precipitation, temperature and humidity etc. over the year will benefit the farmers in the context of a specific decision time table for irrigation scheduling as well as for pre-season crop choices. Hence, contrary to the existing forecasting methods that develop multi time scale information of a single variable at a time, in this paper, we introduce an integrated regional multivariate climate-weather forecasting system that directly relates to agricultural decision making and risk mitigation. These multi-scale risk attributes include mutually dependent, spatially disaggregated statistics such as total rainfall, average temperature, growing degree days, relative humidity, total number of rainfall days/dry spell length, and cumulative water deficits that inform the potential irrigation water requirements for crops etc. Given that these attributes exhibit mutual dependence across space and time, we propose to explore common ocean-atmospheric conditions from the observations and the state of the art Global Circulation Models (GCMs) that can be utilized as the predictor variables for the forecasting system. Non parametric bootstrap resampling methods and Hierarchical Bayesian methods that can easily handle the high dimensionality of such problems will be used to develop the integrated forecast system. The developed multivariate forecasts will be adapted and disseminated as decision tools for the farmers under the Columbia Water Center's pilot project in Punjab region of India.

  11. Study on severe accident mitigation measures for the development of PWR SAMG

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the development of the Severe Accident Management Guidelines (SAMG), it is very important to choose the main severe accident sequences and verify their mitigation measures. In this article, Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA), Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR), Station Blackout (SBO), and Anticipated Transients without Scram (ATWS) in PWR with 300 MWe are selected as the main severe accident sequences. The core damage progressions induced by the above-mentioned sequences are analyzed using SCDAP/RELAP5. To arrest the core damage progression and mitigate the consequences of severe accidents, the measures for the severe accident management (SAM) such as feed and bleed and depressurizations are verified using the calculation. The results suggest that implementing feed and bleed and depressurization could be an effective way to arrest the severe accident sequences in PWR. (authors)

  12. Measuring Risk When Expected Losses Are Unbounded

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Balbás

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new method to introduce coherent risk measures for risks with infinite expectation, such as those characterized by some Pareto distributions. Extensions of the conditional value at risk, the weighted conditional value at risk and other examples are given. Actuarial applications are analyzed, such as extensions of the expected value premium principle when expected losses are unbounded.

  13. Biodosimetry as a New Paradigm for Determination of Radiation Risks and Risk-Mitigation in Astronauts Exposed to Space Radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, Robert; Cruz, Angela; Bors, Karen

    2004-01-01

    Predicting risk of cancer in astronauts exposed to space radiation is challenging partly because uncertainties of absorption of dose and the processing of dose-related damage at the cellular level degrade the confidence of predicting the expression of cancer. Cellular biodosimeters that simultaneously report: 1) the quantity of absorbed dose after exposure to ionizing radiation, 2) the quality of radiation delivering that dose, and 3) the macromolecular profiles related to malignant transformation in cells absorbing that dose would therefore be useful. An approach to such a multiparametric biodosimeter will be reported, This is the demonstration of two dose-responsive field-effects of enhanced protein-expression. In one case, expression of keratin 18 (K18) in cultures of human mammary epithelial cells (HMEC) irradiated with cesium-137 gamma-rays is enhanced following exposure of log phase cells to relatively low doses of 30 to 90 cGy. K18 has been reported by a marker for tumor staging and for apoptosis. In the second case, expression of connexin 43 (Cx43) is increased in irradiated stationary phase cultures of HMEC, indicating enhanced formation of gap junctions. Gap junctions have been reported to be involved in bystander effects following irradiation. It is a biodosimeter for assessing radiogenic damage. It is suggested further that such biomolecular dosimetry may introduce a new paradigm for assessing cancer risk and risk-mitigation in individuals, a requirement for managing radiation health in astronauts during extended missions in space. This new paradigm is built upon the statistical power provided by the use of functional genomics and proteomics represented in combined gene- and protein-expression assays.

  14. Some mitigative measures for protection of surface structures affected by ground subsidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theoretical and analytical analyses of three mitigative measures- plane fitting method, trenching, and tension cable led to the development of a total protection plan to eliminate or reduce damages to the residential structures subjected to surface movements caused by underground longwall mining. The protection plan was applied to twelve residential houses and two external garages. The success rate is overwhelming. This paper describes the methods employed for protection and results of those case studies

  15. Measurement requirements for a near-Earth asteroid impact mitigation demonstration mission

    OpenAIRE

    Wolters, Stephen D.; Ball, Andrew J.; Wells, Nigel; Saunders, Christopher; McBride, Neil

    2011-01-01

    A concept for an Impact Mitigation Preparation Mission, called Don Quijote, is to send two spacecraft to a Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA): an Orbiter and an Impactor. The Impactor collides with the asteroid while the Orbiter measures the resulting change in the asteroid's orbit, by means of a Radio Science Experiment (RSE) carried out before and after impact. Three parallel Phase A studies on Don Quijote were carried out for the European Space Agency: the research presented here reflects outcomes ...

  16. Mitigating the Risk of Stress Corrosion of Austenitic Stainless Steels in Advanced Gas Cooled Reactor Boilers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Advanced Gas-Cooled Reactors (AGRs) operated in the UK by EDF Energy have once-through boilers, which deliver superheated steam at high temperature (∼500 deg. C) and pressure (∼150 bar) to the HP turbine. The boilers have either a serpentine or helical geometry for the tubing of the main heat transfer sections of the boiler and each individual tube is fabricated from mild steel, 9%Cr1%Mo and Type 316 austenitic stainless steel tubing. Type 316 austenitic stainless steel is used for the secondary (final) superheater and steam tailpipe sections of the boiler, which, during normal operation, should operate under dry, superheated steam conditions. This is achieved by maintaining a specified margin of superheat at the upper transition joint (UTJ) between the 9%Cr1%Mo primary superheater and the Type 316 secondary superheater sections of the boiler. Operating in this mode should eliminate the possibility of stress corrosion cracking of the Type 316 tube material on-load. In recent years, however, AGRs have suffered a variety of operational problems with their boilers that have made it difficult to maintain the specified superheat margin at the UTJ. In the case of helical boilers, the combined effects of carbon deposition on the gas side and oxide deposition on the waterside of the tubing have resulted in an increasing number of austenitic tubes operating with less than the specified superheat margin at the UTJ and hence the possibility of wetting the austenitic section of the boiler. Some units with serpentine boilers have suffered creep-fatigue damage of the high temperature sections of the boiler, which currently necessitates capping the steam outlet temperature to prevent further damage. The reduction in steam outlet temperature has meant that there is an increased risk of operation with less than the specified superheat margin at the UTJ and hence stress corrosion cracking of the austenitic sections of the boiler. In order to establish the risk of stress corrosion damage to the Type 316 superheater sections in the affected units an extensive programme of test work and plant modelling has been undertaken over a number of years. This has involved stress corrosion test work using full scale plant boiler simulations under a variety of feedwater chemistry conditions for both helical and serpentine boilers. Data from these investigations has then been used to construct models of the damage process that allow the risk of tube leaks due to stress corrosion cracking to be assessed. These models use plant feedwater chemistry and thermal-hydraulic data as inputs. The paper describes investigations of the risk of stress corrosion cracking in AGR boilers and the improvements in feedwater quality of the affected units to help mitigate the risk. (authors)

  17. Diarrhoeal Health Risks Attributable to Water-Borne-Pathogens in Arsenic-Mitigated Drinking Water in West Bengal are Largely Independent of the Microbiological Quality of the Supplied Water

    OpenAIRE

    Debapriya Mondal; Bhaswati Ganguli; Sugata Sen Roy; Babli Halder; Nilanjana Banerjee; Mayukh Banerjee; Maitreya Samanta; Giri, Ashok K; Polya, David A.

    2014-01-01

    There is a growing discussion about the possibility of arsenic mitigation measures in Bengal and similar areas leading to undesirable substitution of water-borne-pathogen attributable risks pathogens for risks attributable to arsenic, in part because of uncertainties in relative pathogen concentrations in supplied and end-use water. We try to resolve this discussion, by assessing the relative contributions of water supply and end-user practices to water-borne-pathogen-attributable risks for a...

  18. Loss of flow accident and its mitigation measures for nuclear systems with SCWR-M

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ? A model of mixed spectrum SCWR system is established by a revised version of RELAP5. ? Some important parameters are chosen to analysis the SCWR-M during LOFA. ? Three important mitigation measures for LOFA of SCWR-M are derived from the results. - Abstract: Based on a revised version of RELAP5, which can be used for super-critical pressure calculation, a model of mixed spectrum SCWR (SCWR-M) system is established. To analyze the transient behavior of SCWR-M and develop mitigation measures during loss of flow accident (LOFA), some important parameters, e.g. reactor coolant pump (RCP) coast-down time, Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) upper water volume and safety injection flow, etc., are chosen for the parametric analysis. The results achieved so far indicate that the SCWR-M system design is feasible and promising. Three important mitigation measures for LOFA of SCWR-M are derived from the results: RCP coast-down time of more than 15 s, RPV upper water volume of more than 27 m3, and safety injection of more than 5% of the system design flow.

  19. Methane mitigation in cities: how new measurements and partnerships can contribute to emissions reduction strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, F. M.; Bush, S. E.; Ehleringer, J. R.; Lai, C. T.; Rambo, J. P.; Wiggins, E. B.; Miu, J. C. L.; Carranza, V.; Randerson, J. T.

    2014-12-01

    Cities generate a large fraction of anthropogenic methane emissions that are increasing with urbanization and greater reliance on natural gas as fuel. New measurements of methane in cities suggest an as-yet unrealized potential for city-scale methane mitigation. We present high-resolution methane observations from four cities in North America to demonstrate the utility of methane surveys for identifying urban methane sources. We used portable, continuous on-road measurements to determine the spatial distribution of methane in Fairbanks, Los Angeles, Salt Lake City, and San Diego. Across cities, methane tended to be highly concentrated in space, suggesting discrete, point emission sources. Elevated methane levels were found near known emission sources, such as landfills, wastewater treatment facilities, and natural gas-fueled power plants, and revealed the location of fugitive leaks in natural gas infrastructure. The mix of sources and sizes of methane leaks varied among cities, highlighting a need for locally adaptive emissions regulation. Urban methane observations can inform anthropogenic processes in development of methane mitigation strategies. We discuss specific examples of how continuous atmospheric measurements can enhance the design of mitigation strategies in these cities, and potential contributions of these approaches to cross-sectoral efforts to reduce methane emissions at the city level.

  20. On the Necessity of Five Risk Measures

    OpenAIRE

    Guégan, Dominique; Tarrant, Wayne

    2011-01-01

    The banking systems that deal with risk management depend on underlying risk measures. Following the Basel II accord, there are two separate methods by which banks may determine their capital requirement. The Value at Risk measure plays an important role in computing the capital for both approaches. In this paper we analyze the errors produced by using this measure. We discuss other measures, demonstrating their strengths and shortcomings. We give examples, showing the need for the informatio...

  1. Risks factoring business: accounting measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z.V. Gutsaylyuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper carried out the identification of risk factors for the development of possible accounting software management. Studied theoretical and methodological aspects of the risk classification of factoring operations in the part of the risk assessment factors. It is proposed to consider the risks factors as the risk that is acceptable controlled by accounting instruments and the risks that can not be taken into account in the accounting records. To minimize the risk factor, accounting-driven tools, a method of self-insurance, which is a factor in the creation of provision for factoring transactions designed to cover unexpected expenses and losses. Provision for factoring factor will establish more stable conditions of financial activity and avoid the fluctuations of profit factor in relation to the writing off of losses on factoring operatsіyam.Developed proposals allow for further research to improve the organizational and methodological basis of accounting and analysis of information as a basis for providing risk management factor, particularly in terms of improving the evaluation questions such risks and their qualitative and quantitative analysis.

  2. Scientific Opinion on animal health risk mitigation treatments as regards imports of animal casings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EFSA Panel on Animal Health and Welfare

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available

    Salting with NaCl for 30 days is a well-established and accepted procedure in the casings industry and it has been the standard animal health risk mitigation treatment prescribed in EU legislation for many years. This opinion reviews (i improvements in the NaCl treatment that would lead to an increased level of safety to avoid transmission of animal pathogens, (ii alternative treatments that could have been developed giving equivalent or better results in the inactivation of relevant pathogens, and (iii provides an assessment of the phosphate-salt treatment recommended by OIE for foot and mouth disease virus, in particular if it could be considered safe as regards the elimination of other animal pathogens. The rate of inactivation of viruses was highly dependent on temperature for both NaCl and phosphate-NaCl treatment. Treatment with phosphate-NaCl mixture leads to faster inactivation than treatment with NaCl salt alone. Brucella species are readily inactivated by NaCl salting, but mycobacteriamay survive beyond 30 days in intestines in conditions similar to those used for salting of casings. It is recommended that casings should be treated at 20 °C for 30 days to achieve effective inactivation of animal pathogens. Several other treatments have been applied to casings with the aim of inactivating infectious agents, but none of them have been extensively investigated with viruses relevant for animal health.

  3. The mitigation of volcanic risk as opportunity for an ecological and resilient city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giulio Zuccaro

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper outlines some of the results of SPeeD project, funded by EU, Campania Region and National Department of Civil Protection. The research is aimed at the definition of impact scenarios resulting from the eruption of Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei and the development of strategies to reduce the damage on the built environment. The issues related to the identification of technical solutions for mitigating the impact on buildings and infrastructure, to the socio-economic benefits arising from widespread interventions on the territory, as well as to the drafting of preparatory guidelines for the implementation of regional regulations and local building codes for volcanic risk-prone areas, have been developed at PLINIVS Study Centre of University of Naples Federico II. The methodological approach for the definition of appropriate technologies aimed at reducing the impact in relation to eruptive phenomena and construction types in the area is based on PLINIVS Volcanic Impact Simulation Model, a unique tool to define impact scenarios consequent to a volcanic eruption in the region, able to evaluate the cumulative effects given by the action of volcanic phenomena, such as earthquake, ash fall, pyroclastic flows and landslides. The study aims to demonstrate how the application of appropriate technologies for retrofit interventions or new constructions, aimed at reducing the vulnerability of building components, represents at the same time an opportunity to encourage a diffuse redevelopment of the territory driven by energy and environmental efficiency issues.

  4. Diarrhoeal Health Risks Attributable to Water-Borne-Pathogens in Arsenic-Mitigated Drinking Water in West Bengal are Largely Independent of the Microbiological Quality of the Supplied Water

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debapriya Mondal

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available There is a growing discussion about the possibility of arsenic mitigation measures in Bengal and similar areas leading to undesirable substitution of water-borne-pathogen attributable risks pathogens for risks attributable to arsenic, in part because of uncertainties in relative pathogen concentrations in supplied and end-use water. We try to resolve this discussion, by assessing the relative contributions of water supply and end-user practices to water-borne-pathogen-attributable risks for arsenic mitigation options in a groundwater arsenic impacted area of West Bengal. Paired supplied arsenic-mitigated water and end-use drinking water samples from 102 households were collected and analyzed for arsenic and thermally tolerant coliforms [TTC], used as a proxy for microbiological water quality, We then estimated the DALYs related to key sequelae, diarrheal diseases and cancers, arising from water-borne pathogens and arsenic respectively. We found [TTC] in end-use drinking water to depend only weakly on [TTC] in source-water. End-user practices far outweighed the microbiological quality of supplied water in determining diarrheal disease burden. [TTC] in source water was calculated to contribute <1% of total diarrheal disease burden. No substantial demonstrable pathogen-for-arsenic risk substitution attributable to specific arsenic mitigation of supplied waters was observed, illustrating the benefits of arsenic mitigation measures in the area studied.

  5. Role of the Internet in Anticipating and Mitigating Earthquake Catastrophes, and the Emergence of Personal Risk Management (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Donnellan, A.; Graves, W.; Tiampo, K. F.; Klein, W.

    2009-12-01

    Risks from natural and financial catastrophes are currently managed by a combination of large public and private institutions. Public institutions usually are comprised of government agencies that conduct studies, formulate policies and guidelines, enforce regulations, and make official forecasts. Private institutions include insurance and reinsurance companies, and financial service companies that underwrite catastrophe (cat) bonds, and make private forecasts. Although decisions about allocating resources and developing solutions are made by large institutions, the costs of dealing with catastrophes generally fall for the most part on businesses and the general public. Information on potential risks is generally available to the public for some hazards but not others. For example, in the case of weather, private forecast services are provided by www.weather.com and www.wunderground.com. For earthquakes in California (only), the official forecast is the WGCEP-USGS forecast, but provided in a format that is difficult for the public to use. Other privately made forecasts are currently available, for example by the JPL QuakeSim and Russian groups, but these efforts are limited. As more of the worlds population moves increasingly into major seismic zones, new strategies are needed to allow individuals to manage their personal risk from large and damaging earthquakes. Examples include individual mitigation measures such as retrofitting, as well as microinsurance in both developing and developed countries, as well as other financial strategies. We argue that the long tail of the internet offers an ideal, and greatly underutilized mechanism to reach out to consumers and to provide them with the information and tools they need to confront and manage seismic hazard and risk on an individual, personalized basis. Information of this type includes not only global hazard forecasts, which are now possible, but also global risk estimation. Additionally, social networking tools are available that will allow self-organizing, disaster-resilient communities to arise as emergent structures from the underlying nonlinear social dynamics. In this talk, we argue that the current style of risk management is not making adequate use of modern internet technology, and that significantly more can be done. We suggest several avenues to proceed, in particular making use of the internet for earthquake forecast and information delivery, as well as tracking forecast validation and verification on a real-time basis. We also show examples of forecasts delivered over the internet, and describe how these are made.

  6. Cooperative efforts to mitigate proliferation risks at the Semipalatinsk test site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: For forty years the Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS) was used by the Soviet Union for atmospheric and underground nuclear tests. Atmospheric test were terminated as a result of the 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty; underground tests continued until 1990. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991, most of the soldiers guarding the site and most of the technical specialists returned to Russia. The Kazakhstan National Nuclear Center (NNC) was left with a huge environmental legacy and an unknown nuclear proliferation legacy. The Russian government was concerned that it would have to shoulder the environmental cleanup costs and, perhaps, face reparations for past activities. Consequently, its officials and technical specialists had no desire to return to the STS. NNC officials and technical specialists reached out to the international community to ask for assistance in assessing and mitigating the environmental risks at the STS. They had virtually no information about potential proliferation concerns because the nuclear testing records were Russian government property. Under the United States Cooperative Threat Reduction (Nunn-Lugar) program, a concerted effort was made by the U.S. Department of Defense to close the nuclear testing tunnels to destroy the nuclear testing infrastructure at the STS. The Nunn-Lugar program also facilitated the removal of nearly 600 kilograms of highly enrichment uranium from the Ulba Metallurgical Plant in Ust-Kamenogorsk to the United States to avoid potential nuclear proliferation problems. The Nunn-Lugar program was also responsible, together with the Russian government, to return Soviet nuclear weapons from Kazakhstan to Russia. As part of the Cooperative Threat Reduction lab-to-lab program, technical specialists from the U.S. national laboratories began to work with NNC specialists to enhance the protection and safeguarding of fissile materials resident at STS reactors and at the research reactor and associated facilities at the Institute for Nuclear Physics at Alatau and the fast reactor at Aktau. These programs resulted in cooperative activities between NNC and U.S. national laboratory technical specialists. One of these activities brought me to the STS in April 1998. That visit combined with my experience at the U.S. Nevada Nuclear Test Site convinced me that there were likely other fissile materials present at the STS that may present a significant proliferation risk and required immediate attention. NNC officials and specialists were unsuccessful in obtaining any information from the Russian government. Moreover, since the Republic of Kazakhstan had signed the nuclear nonproliferation treaty, it was not supposed to have undeclared fissile materials in its territory. By 1998, my colleagues at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and I had established close cooperation with the nuclear specialists from the Russian Federal Nuclear Centers (the All-Russia Institute for Experimental Physics, VNIIEF, and All-Russia Institute for Theoretical Physics, VNIITF). We were able to convince Academician Rady I. Ilkaev, director of VNIIEF, to return to Kazakhstan in 1999 and sign a three-party technical memorandum to work with the three governments to assess and liquidate the potential proliferation risks. Government officials from the U.S. Department of Energy, Russian Ministry of Atomic Energy, and RK NNC gave formal approval to proceed with trilateral technical cooperation to assess and remediate the proliferation risks associated with former Russian nuclear experiments and tests at STS. Over the next 13 years, we witnessed a remarkable spirit of cooperation among the three countries. The Russian nuclear specialists identified the potential sites of concerns, the type of materials and testing activity. They also played a major role in suggesting the appropriate mitigation actions. Without their cooperation, this effort could not have been successful. If left to the Americans and Kazakhstani specialists, it would have been like looking for a needle in a haystack. The American technical specialists assessed the technical information received from the Russians and helped to design mitigation actions. The Kazakhstani specialists conducted much of the actual fieldwork. The governmental agencies, including the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) and Office of the Secretary of Defense provided the overall project management and secured the funding from the U.S. government to conduct the activities. All in all, five separate campaigns were conducted by the trilateral teams to liquidate a serious proliferation risk remnant from the Cold War and nuclear activities of the Soviet Union at what was its principal nuclear test site, but which had now passed into the hands of the independent country of Kazakhstan. I will describe these activities and pay tribute to the Russian and Kazakhstani nuclear specialists for their cooperative efforts. (author)

  7. RISK MITIGATION IN THE BANKING SYSTEM IN THE CONTEXT OF INTEGRATION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura – Maria POPESCU

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The article aims to highlight the measures adopted in the financial-banking system in the context of the European integration, according to risk analysis perspectives. The first part provides details on the vulnerability sources in terms of banking risks and their approach from various perspectives. Subsequently, based on the identified risks, a series of measures are proposed to limit them within the banking system. In terms of the work hypotheses, they are confirmed, thus increasing the harmonization level of theories throughout the European Union. Research was based on methods such as analysis, synthesis and induction, used to select the opinion of specialists in the field on the studied matter, and deduction, through the cross-section method, thus following the evolution and measures adopted in time. Following the analysis, a need was noticed for the implementation of an efficient banking risk management system, together with drafting additional regulations, so that the banking system is better prepared to handle new challenges generated by the crisis. The term afferent to the accession and integration in the European Union implied a stage requiring a radical change of the Romanian banking system, considering issues such as Romania’s economic development, leading to an increase of the banking mediation process.

  8. Stimulating household flood risk mitigation investments through insurance and subsidies: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    In the period 1998-2009, floods triggered roughly 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard in Europe. Climate change and socio/economic trends are expected to further aggrevate floods losses in many regions. Research shows that flood risk can be significantly reduced if households install protective measures, and that the implementation of such measures can be stimulated through flood insurance schemes and subsidies. However, the effectiveness of such incentives to stimulate implementation of loss-reducing measures greatly depends on the decision process of individuals and is hardly studied. In our study, we developed an Agent-Based Model that integrates flood damage models, insurance mechanisms, subsidies, and household behaviour models to assess the effectiveness of different economic tools on stimulating households to invest in loss-reducing measures. Since the effectiveness depends on the decision making process of individuals, the study compares different household decision models ranging from standard economic models, to economic models for decision making under risk, to more complex decision models integrating economic models and risk perceptions, opinion dynamics, and the influence of flood experience. The results show the effectiveness of incentives to stimulate investment in loss-reducing measures for different household behavior types, while assuming climate change scenarios. It shows how complex decision models can better reproduce observed real-world behaviour compared to traditional economic models. Furthermore, since flood events are included in the simulations, the results provide an analysis of the dynamics in insured and uninsured losses for households, the costs of reducing risk by implementing loss-reducing measures, the capacity of the insurance market, and the cost of government subsidies under different scenarios. The model has been applied to the City of Rotterdam in The Netherlands.

  9. Risk Measures and Dependence Modeling in Financial Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Eriksson, Kristofer

    2014-01-01

    In financial risk management it is essential to be able to model dependence in markets and portfolios in an accurate and efficient way. A high positive dependence between assets in a portfolio can be devastating, especially in times of crises, since losses will most likely occur at the same time in all assets for such a portfolio. The dependence is therefore directly linked to the risk of the portfolio. The risk can be estimated by several different risk measures, for example Value-at-Risk an...

  10. Credit risk measurement and modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Anastassopoulou, N.

    2006-01-01

    This thesis aims to make a contribution to the understanding of the key economic and company specific components of credit spreads in the investment and non-investment grade US bond market for different maturing bond indices. It calls for the full integration of different market andfirm specific variables into a unique framework, in order to predict credit spread changes. Key determinants of default risk are employed to determine credit migration risk. Particularly, this thesis provides evide...

  11. From Smile Asymptotics to Market Risk Measures

    CERN Document Server

    Sircar, Ronnie

    2011-01-01

    The left tail of the implied volatility skew, coming from quotes on out-of-the-money put options, can be thought to reflect the market's assessment of the risk of a huge drop in stock prices. We analyze how this market information can be integrated into the theoretical framework of convex monetary measures of risk. In particular, we make use of indifference pricing by dynamic convex risk measures, which are given as solutions of backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs), to establish a link between these two approaches to risk measurement. We derive a characterization of the implied volatility in terms of the solution of a nonlinear PDE and provide a small time-to-maturity expansion and numerical solutions. This procedure allows to choose convex risk measures in a conveniently parametrized class, distorted entropic dynamic risk measures, which we introduce here, such that the asymptotic volatility skew under indifference pricing can be matched with the market skew.

  12. Keeping focus on earthquakes at school for seismic risk mitigation of the next generations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saraò, Angela; Barnaba, Carla; Peruzza, Laura

    2013-04-01

    The knowledge of the seismic history of its own territory, the understanding of physical phenomena in response to an earthquake, the changes in the cultural heritage following a strong earthquake, the learning of actions to be taken during and after an earthquake, are piece of information that contribute to keep focus on the seismic hazard and to implement strategies for seismic risk mitigation. The training of new generations, today more than ever subject to rapid forgetting of past events, becomes therefore a key element to increase the perception that earthquakes happened and can happen at anytime and that mitigation actions are the only means to ensure the safety and to reduce damages and human losses. Since several years our institute (OGS) is involved in activities to raise awareness of education on earthquake. We aim to implement education programs with the goal of addressing a critical approach to seismic hazard reduction, differentiating the types of activities according to the age of the students. However, being such kind of activity unfunded, we can act at now only on a very limited number of schools per year. To be effective, the inclusion of the seismic risk issues in school curricula requires specific time and appropriate approaches when planning activities. For this reason, we involve also the teachers as proponents of activities and we encourage them to keep alive memories and discussion on earthquake in the classes. During the past years we acted mainly in the schools of the Friuli Venezia Giulia area (NE Italy), that is an earthquake prone area struck in 1976 by a destructive seismic event (Ms=6.5). We organized short training courses for teachers, we lectured classes, and we led laboratory activities with students. Indeed, being well known that students enjoy classes more when visual and active learning are joined, we propose a program that is composed by seminars, demonstrations and hands-on activities in the classrooms; for high school students we propose summer stages at the OGS Seismological Department. Some examples of education activities we performed during the last two years are here presented. Starting with kids at kindergartens, where we propose play and story-telling activities with the final goal to prepare them on what to do in case an earthquake occurs, we show our experience with the primary and intermediate schools where, through hands-on activities, we reproduce and explain the earthquake phenomenon and its effects. Then we illustrate the work of high school students who, under the guidance of an expert seismologist, designed and performed a microzonation study in Gemona del Friuli, a small town that was severely damaged by the 1976 earthquake. Satisfaction questionnaires and feedback by students and teachers help us to assess the effectiveness of our efforts as well as to improve our next actions.

  13. Evaluation of innovative means of hydrogen risk mitigation in thermonuclear fusion reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    One of the main accidents in ITER-type thermonuclear fusion reactors is the loss of coolant leading to hydrogen production. Within the framework of the studies on the ITER fusion reactor, a mitigation strategy for this risk must be devised by focusing on a system, which can be placed near the hydrogen source. The uncertainty as to the air content during such a scenario forbids the use of classic methods based on the hydrogen/oxygen reaction such as passive catalytic recombiners. Former studies have proposed a process based on the reduction of metallic oxides and more particularly that of the manganese dioxide enhanced by silver oxide mixture. The reaction studied is H2 + MnO2 → MnO + H2O (reaction enhanced by Ag2O). The purpose is to study the kinetic. The method used consists in comparing the experimental results obtained on the pilot facility CIGNE with those provided by a model. The experimental results were obtained from tests made on a pilot facility with a solid/gas reaction in a fixed bed. These underlined the importance of favoring the solid/gas contact surface. The modeling used in the MITRHY simulation program, coupled to an optimizer helped determine the kinetic parameters and the data on the material and temperature transfers. The kinetic is of first order rate for hydrogen with an activation energy of 29428 J/mol and a kinetic coefficient of 142 m.s-1. Integrated in the MITRHY program, the kinetic parameters were used to simulate the hydrogen elimination in the accident conditions on the ITER experimental reactor. This study achieved a pre-design basis of the device (bed of about 30 cm with grains of a diameter of less than 5 mm) to be implemented. It also underlined the need to favor the specific surface to improved process efficiency. (author)

  14. Application of Chance-Constrained Stochastic Optimization for Mitigating Downstream Flood Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarado Montero, Rodolfo; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Mainardi Fan, Fernando; Assis dos Reis, Alberto

    2015-04-01

    Ensemble forecasting is a growing field in the operation of multi-purpose reservoirs and mitigation of flood risks in downstream river reaches. The assessment of uncertainty over the prediction horizon provides added value to the operational flow forecasting system. It provides probabilistic inflow forecasts which, combined with decision support systems, determine optimum release strategies. One way of doing this is through scenario tree-based stochastic optimization. The representation of the ensemble forecasted is converted into a scenario-tree and optimized based on an adaptive multi-stage stochastic optimization. Typical inequality constraints applied over this problem require a full compliance of each ensemble's trajectory and neglect the uncertainty distribution. We propose the application of chance constrained optimization to overcome such problem, allowing a more flexible approach that does not depend on the number of ensembles but rather on the distribution of uncertainty. This technique is used to compute release trajectories of the reservoirs over a finite forecast horizon of up to 14 days by integrating a nonlinear gradient-based optimization algorithm and a model of the water system. The latter consists of simulation components for pool routing and kinematic or diffusive wave models for the downstream river reaches including a simulation mode and a reverse adjoint mode for the efficient computation of first-order derivatives. This framework has been implemented for a reservoir system operated by the Brazilian Companhia Energtica de Minas Gerais S.A. (CEMIG). We present results obtained for the operation of the Tres Marias reservoir in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais with a catchment area of near 55,000 km2. The focus of our discussion is the impact of chance constrains on the optimization procedure and its flexibility for extending the number of ensemble forecasts thus providing a more accurate representation of uncertainty. We compare the performance of the above mentioned optimization techniques and conclude over the usefulness of implementing chance-constrained optimization in operational flow forecasting systems.

  15. FIELD NOTES: PEOPLE, PROGRAMS, & POLICIES* Farmers Market Produce Delivery Program for Mitigating Nutritional Risk in Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    DOVER, SALLY E.; BUYS, DAVID R.; ALLOCCA, SALLY; LOCHER, JULIE L.

    2013-01-01

    Community-dwelling older adults in disadvantaged neighborhoods may face nutritional risks not mitigated by existing programs. The Senior Market Basket Program, administered by nonprofit organization P.E.E.R., Inc., is a unique approach to serving community-dwelling senior adults and a valuable model for integrating targeted social services into local food systems. The program ensures access to fresh produce during the growing season for a defined target population. PMID:23935771

  16. Public health activities for mitigation of radiation exposures and risk communication challenges after the Fukushima nuclear accident

    OpenAIRE

    Shimura, Tsutomu; Yamaguchi, Ichiro; Terada, Hiroshi; Robert Svendsen, Erik; Kunugita, Naoki

    2015-01-01

    Herein we summarize the public health actions taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radiation after the Fukushima accident that occurred on 11 March 2011 in order to record valuable lessons learned for disaster preparedness. Evacuations from the radiation-affected areas and control of the distribution of various food products contributed to the reduction of external and internal radiation exposure resulting from the Fukushima incident. However, risk communication is also an important is...

  17. Engineering aspects of earthquake risk mitigation: Lessons from management of recent earthquakes, and consequential mudflows and landslides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Proceedings contain 30 selected presentations given at the Second and Third UNDRO/USSR Training Seminars: Engineering Aspects of Earthquake Risk Assessment and Mitigation of Losses, held in Dushanbe, October 1988; and Lessons from Management of Recent Earthquakes, and Consequential Mudflows and Landslides, held in Moscow, October 1989. The annexes to the document provide information on the participants, the work programme and the resolution adopted at each of the seminars. Refs, figs and tabs

  18. Intensity ramp-up: 2011 experience - Limitations, mitigation, risks, strategy, pushing it in 2012, 1380 in 3 weeks?

    CERN Document Server

    Zerlauth, M; Wenninger, J

    2012-01-01

    This paper will discuss the experience with ramping up the beam intensities in the early days of the 2011 run and after the subsequent technical stops. Weak points and limitations are being identified and their possible mitigations evaluated. In view of the risks and drawbacks of a too aggressive approach, possible improvements of the applied strategy whilst maintaining the required validation points for the various equipment and machine protection systems (MPS) are being discussed.

  19. Optimal risk transfer under quantile-based risk measurers

    OpenAIRE

    Asimit, A. V.; Badescu, A.; Verdonck, T.

    2013-01-01

    The classical problem of identifying the optimal risk transfer from one insurance company to multiple reinsurance companies is examined under some quantile-based risk measure criteria. We develop a new methodology via a two-stage optimisation procedure which not only allows us to recover some existing results in the literature, but also makes possible the analysis of high-dimensional problems in which the insurance company diversifies its risk with multiple reinsurance counter-parties, where ...

  20. Best Practices in Grid Integration of Variable Wind Power: Summary of Recent US Case Study Results and Mitigation Measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, J. Charles [Utility Wind Integration Group (UWIG), Reston, VA (United States); Parsons, Brian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Acker, Thomas [Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States); Milligan, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zavidil, Robert [EnerNex Corporation, Knoxville, TN (United States); Schuerger, Matthew [Energy Systems Consulting Services, St. Paul, MN (United States); DeMeo, Edgar [Renewable Energy Consulting Services, Palo Alto, CA (United States)

    2010-01-22

    This paper will summarize results from a number of utility wind integration case studies conducted recently in the US, and outline a number of mitigation measures based on insights from those studies.

  1. Tsunami mitigation and preparedness activities in California: Chapter L in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Rick; Miller, Kevin

    2013-01-01

    Scenario planning and final results associated with the U.S. Geological Survey Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami project are providing great benefits to the ongoing tsunami risk-reduction efforts of the California Tsunami Preparedness and Hazard Mitigation Program. This program, led by the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services and the California Geological Survey, works with coastal communities to improve tsunami preparedness and mitigation at the local level through various efforts, such as improving tsunami hazard analysis, establishing consistent evacuation communications and planning, and leveraging national risk-reduction efforts associated with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. The recent 2010 Chilean and 2011 Tohoku tsunamis did not cause notable inundation of dry land in California, but dozens of harbors sustained damages totaling nearly $100 million (Wilson and others, 2012a). Estimates associated with the SAFRR distant tsunami scenario suggest socioeconomic and environmental losses could be even larger. Information gathered from these events and the SAFRR scenario is guiding the development and implementation of new strategies for emergency response, maritime planning, and land-use planning, including a reassessment of the tsunami threat along the California coast;

  2. Measuring social risk and determining its acceptability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The implementation of a nuclear waste management technology raises several issues concerning the regulation of social risk. This paper presents a decision analytic approach to resolving some of those issues. A methodology for developing a radiological risk measure is presented, and several approaches to defining acceptable levels of that risk measure are considered. The methodology presented is oriented toward the development of radiological performance objectives for use as guidance in the drafting of regulations

  3. Measuring social risk and determining its acceptability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lathrop, J.W.

    1978-07-14

    The implementation of a nuclear waste management technology raises several issues concerning the regulation of social risk. This paper presents a decision analytic approach to resolving some of those issues. A methodology for developing a radiological risk measure is presented, and several approaches to defining acceptable levels of that risk measure are considered. The methodology presented is oriented toward the development of radiological performance objectives for use as guidance in the drafting of regulations.

  4. Sophisticated vs. Simple Systemic Risk Measures

    OpenAIRE

    Pankoke, David Antonius

    2014-01-01

    This paper evaluates whether sophisticated or simple systemic risk measures are more suitable in identifying which institutions contribute to systemic risk. In this investigation, DCoVaR, Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES), SRISK and Granger-Causality Networks are considered as sophisticated systemic risk measures. Market capitalization, total debt, leverage, the stock market returns of an institution, and the correlation between the stock market returns of an institution and the market, are c...

  5. Surge Pressure Mitigation in the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission Core Propulsion System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scroggins, Ashley R.; Fiebig, Mark D.

    2014-01-01

    The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is an international partnership between NASA and JAXA whose Core spacecraft performs cutting-edge measurements of rainfall and snowfall worldwide and unifies data gathered by a network of precipitation measurement satellites. The Core spacecraft's propulsion system is a blowdown monopropellant system with an initial hydrazine load of 545 kg in a single composite overwrapped propellant tank. At launch, the propulsion system contained propellant in the tank and manifold tubes upstream of the latch valves, with low-pressure helium gas in the manifold tubes downstream of the latch valves. The system had a relatively high beginning-of- life pressure and long downstream manifold lines; these factors created conditions that were conducive to high surge pressures. This paper discusses the GPM project's approach to surge mitigation in the propulsion system design. The paper describes the surge testing program and results, with discussions of specific difficulties encountered. Based on the results of surge testing and pressure drop analyses, a unique configuration of cavitating venturis was chosen to mitigate surge while minimizing pressure losses during thruster maneuvers. This paper concludes with a discussion of overall lessons learned with surge pressure testing for NASA Goddard spacecraft programs.

  6. Benthic community recovery from brine impact after the implementation of mitigation measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del-Pilar-Ruso, Yoana; Martinez-Garcia, Elena; Gimnez-Casalduero, Francisca; Loya-Fernndez, Angel; Ferrero-Vicente, Luis Miguel; Marco-Mndez, Candela; de-la-Ossa-Carretero, Jose Antonio; Snchez-Lizaso, Jos Luis

    2015-03-01

    In many regions, seawater desalination is a growing industry that has its impact on benthic communities. This study analyses the effect on benthic communities of a mitigation measure applied to a brine discharge, using polychaete assemblages as indicator. An eight-year study was conducted at San Pedro del Pinatar (SE Spain) establishing a grid of 12 sites at a depth range of 29-38 m during autumn. Brine discharge started in 2006 and produced a significant decrease in abundance, richness and diversity of polychaete families at the location closest to the discharge, where salinity reached 49. In 2010, a diffuser was deployed at the end of the pipeline in order to increase the mixing, to reduce the impact on benthic communities. After implementation of this mitigation measure, the salinity measured close to discharge was less than 38.5 and a significant recovery in polychaete richness and diversity was detected, to levels similar to those before the discharge. A less evident recovery in abundance was also observed, probably due to different recovery rates of polychaete families. Some families like Paraonidae and Magelonidae were more tolerant to this impact. Others like Syllidae and Capitellidae recovered quickly, although still affected by the discharge, while some families such as Sabellidae and Cirratulidae appeared to recover more slowly. PMID:25543242

  7. Climate Change And Mitigation Measures For The Hydrometerological Disaster In Himachal Pradesh India- In Light Of Dams.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinay K. Pandey

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Continuing climate change is predicted to lead to major changes in the climate of the Himalayan region. Casualties and damage due to hazards in mountain regions will increase irrespective of global warming especially where populations are growing and infrastructure is developed at exposed locations. But climate change will definitely increase risk due to the fact that expected increases of heavy rainfall heat waves and glacier melt will amplify hazards in Himalayan region. The rapid release of melt water and rainfall may combine to trigger debris flows and flash flood in higher ranges including the formation of potentially dangerous lakes. These lakes may breach suddenly resulting in discharge of huge volume of water and debris. Himachal Pradesh had experienced a large number of incidences of Hydro-meteorological disaster HMD since its inception in 1971. Flash flood of March 1975 Dec 1988 Satluj flash flood of August 2000 July 2001 June 2005 Flash flood of July 2005 and Cloud burst in June 2013 are the major natural calamities in Himachal Pradesh. Due to continuous HMD brought heavy toll to the state as the loss was estimated in several thousand millions of rupees and also killed several hundreds of people besides large number of cattle heads. Through this paper we carried out a comprehensive study of past HMD and mitigation measures solution and concluded that these disaster are by their nature difficult to predict and control but it is possible to reduce the risk to lives and property through develop mitigation strategy and plan to construct damsbarrages with awareness and knowledge among local communities about the impacts of global warming natural disaster and the threat to the ecosystem communities and infrastructure are generally inadequate.

  8. Rockfall hazard assessment, risk quantification, and mitigation options for reef cove resort development, False Cape, Queensland, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlotfeldt, P.

    2009-04-01

    GIS and 2-D rock fall simulations were used as the primary tools during a rock fall hazard assessment and analyses for a major resort and township development near Cairns, Queensland in Australia. The methods used included 1) the development of a digital elevation model (DEM); undertaking rock fall trajectory analyses to determine the end points of rockfalls, the distribution of kinetic energy for identified rock fall runout Zones, and 3) undertaking event tree analyses based on a synthesis of all data in order to establish Zones with the highest risk of fatalities. This paper describes the methodology used and the results of this work. Recommendations to mitigate the hazard included having exclusions zones with no construction, scaling (including trim blasting), construction of berms and rockfall catch fences. Keywords: GIS, rockfall simulation, rockfall runout Zones, mitigation options INTRODUCTION False Cape is located on the east side of the Trinity inlet near Cairns (Figure 1). Construction is underway for a multi-million dollar development close the beach front. The development will ultimately cover about 1.5 km of prime coast line. The granite slopes above the development are steep and are covered with a number of large, potentially unstable boulders. Sheet jointing is present in the in-situ bedrock and these combined with other tectonic joint sets have provided a key mechanism for large side down slope on exposed bedrock. With each rock fall (evidence by boulders strew in gullies, over the lower parts of the slope, and on the beach) the failure mechanism migrates upslope. In order for the Developer to proceed with construction he needs to mitigate the identified rock fall hazard. The method used to study the hazard and key finding are presented in this paper. Discussion is provided in the conclusion on mitigation options. KEY METHODS USED TO STUDY THE HAZARD In summary the methods used to study the hazard for the False Cape project include; 1. The development of a digital elevation model (DEM) used to delineate rock fall runout Zones [1] that included the spatial location of boulder fields mapped within Zones(Figure 2). A Zone is defined as an area above the development on steep sided slopes where falling rocks are channeled into gullies / and or are contained between topographic features such as ridges and spurs that extend down the mountainside. These natural barriers generally ensure that falling rocks do not fall or roll into adjacent Zones; 2. The use of ‘Flow Path Tracing Tool' in Arc GIS spatial analyst to confirm typical descents of boulders in Zones. These were shown to correlated strongly with the endpoints of boulders observed within the development and major clusters of boulders on the beach front; 3. The use of 2-D rockfall trajectory analyses [2] using sections cut along typical 3-D trajectory paths mapped out in ARC GIS per Zone. Sections along typical paths in Zones simulated, to some degree, the 3-D affect or path of rocks as they bounce roll down slope (Figure 3); 4. The calibration of rockfall input parameters (coefficients of normal and tangential restitution, slope roughness, friction angle, etc.) using field identified endpoints and size of fallen rock and boulder; and 5. Undertaking risk evolutions in order to quantify the potential risk for each independent rockfall Zone. KEY FINDINGS FROM THE STUDIES The key findings from the study include; 1. Multiple potentially unstable in-situ boulders (some in excess of several thousand tonnes) are present above the development. 2. Similar geological structures (dykes, jointing, etc.) are present in the boulders on the beach front and within the development exposed in-situ bedrock located above the development. Measurement and comparison of the orientation of these geological structures present in boulders with that observed in the in-situ bedrock provided strong evidence that that the boulders have mitigated down slope. 3. Eight discrete Rockfall Runout Zones were identified using the digital elevation model set up in ARC GIS (Figure 4). The bound

  9. Marginal abatement cost curves and the optimal timing of mitigation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decision makers facing abatement targets need to decide which abatement measures to implement, and in which order. Measure-explicit marginal abatement cost curves depict the cost and abating potential of available mitigation options. Using a simple intertemporal optimization model, we demonstrate why this information is not sufficient to design emission reduction strategies. Because the measures required to achieve ambitious emission reductions cannot be implemented overnight, the optimal strategy to reach a short-term target depends on longer-term targets. For instance, the best strategy to achieve European's −20% by 2020 target may be to implement some expensive, high-potential, and long-to-implement options required to meet the −75% by 2050 target. Using just the cheapest abatement options to reach the 2020 target can create a carbon-intensive lock-in and make the 2050 target too expensive to reach. Designing mitigation policies requires information on the speed at which various measures to curb greenhouse gas emissions can be implemented, in addition to the information on the costs and potential of such measures provided by marginal abatement cost curves. - Highlights: • Classification of existing Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACC). • MACCs do not provide separated data on the speed at which measures can be implemented. • Optimal measures to reach a short-term target depend on longer-term targets. • Unique carbon price or aggregated emission-reduction target may be insufficient. • Room for short-term sectoral policies if agents are myopic or governments cannot commit

  10. MODERN RISK MEASURES FOR INDIVIDUAL HIGHER EDUCATION INVESTMENT RISK EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vona Mate

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available One of the reasons why people get degree and participate in organized education is that they want to raise their human capital or signal their inner abilities to future employers by sorting themselves out. In both cases they can expect return to their investment, because they can expect higher life-time earnings than those who do not have degree. In this paper we will refer this activity as higher education investment or education investment. In this paper the investment of the state into educating their citizens will not be considered. The question of this paper will develop the findings of Vona (2014. I suggested to introduce modern risk measures because individual risk-taking became a serious question. It was considered that modern risk measures can help to solve some issues with the relation of investment and risk. However before applying some measures from a different field of science, namely investment finance and financial mathematics, to another, economics of education, there must be a very careful consideration, because there are debate over these measures applicability even on their field of science. Value at Risk is not coherent and Expected Shortfall is only one of a great deal of possible tail loss measures. For this reason it will be discussed in detail how should we should adopt the measures, what kind of data is necessary for calculating this risk measures and what kind of new insight they can bring. With the aid of a numerical example it will be shown that with expected shortfall measure we can reflect some large losses, and potential high value of diversification. We show the value at risk based measure is not coherent and this means it points out something different in this environment. It is can be an indicator of loss in opportunities for high end returns.

  11. Experimental Measurements of e-Cloud Mitigation Using Clearing Electrodes in the DAФNE Collider

    CERN Document Server

    Alesini, D; Gallo, A; Guiducci, S; Milardi, C; Zobov, M; De Santis, S; Demma, Theo; Raimondi, P

    2012-01-01

    Recently the DAФNE electron-positron collider has started delivering luminosity to the KLOE-2 experiment. For this run special metallic electrodes were installed in all the dipole and wiggler magnets of the positron ring to cope with the effects induced by the e-cloud formation. Experimental measurements have shown an impressive effectiveness of these devices in mitigating the e-cloud impact on the positron beam dynamics. The electrodes allow reducing the vertical beam size and the growth rate of transverse instabilities as well as the tune shifts induced by the electron cloud itself. Moreover frequency shift measurements of the vacuum chamber resonances, switching on and off the electrodes, indicate an evident reduction of the electron cloud density. This paper reports and analyses all the experimental observations and measurements done to suppress the e-cloud induced effects by using metallic electrodes.

  12. The Use of the Integrated Medical Model for Forecasting and Mitigating Medical Risks for a Near-Earth Asteroid Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerstman, Eric; Saile, Lynn; Freire de Carvalho, Mary; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Lopez, Vilma

    2011-01-01

    Introduction The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission managers and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight. Methods Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of medical events, crew health metrics, medical resource utilization, and probability estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM can also optimize medical kits within the constraints of mass and volume for specified missions. The IMM was used to forecast medical evacuation and loss of crew life probabilities, as well as crew health metrics for a near-earth asteroid (NEA) mission. An optimized medical kit for this mission was proposed based on the IMM simulation. Discussion The IMM can provide information to the space program regarding medical risks, including crew medical impairment, medical evacuation and loss of crew life. This information is valuable to mission managers and the space medicine community in assessing risk and developing mitigation strategies. Exploration missions such as NEA missions will have significant mass and volume constraints applied to the medical system. Appropriate allocation of medical resources will be critical to mission success. The IMM capability of optimizing medical systems based on specific crew and mission profiles will be advantageous to medical system designers. Conclusion The IMM is a decision support tool that can provide estimates of the impact of medical events on human space flight missions, such as crew impairment, evacuation, and loss of crew life. It can be used to support the development of mitigation strategies and to propose optimized medical systems for specified space flight missions. Learning Objectives The audience will learn how an evidence-based decision support tool can be used to help assess risk, develop mitigation strategies, and optimize medical systems for exploration space flight missions.

  13. Secondary effects of urban heat island mitigation measures on air quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallmann, Joachim; Forkel, Renate; Emeis, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    This study presents numerical simulations analysing the effect of urban heat island (UHI) mitigation measures on the chemical composition of the urban atmosphere. The mesoscale chemical transport model WRF-Chem is used to investigate the impact of urban greening and highly reflective surfaces on the concentrations of primary (CO, NO) as well as secondary pollutants (O3) inside the urban canopy. In order to account for the sub-grid scale heterogeneity of urban areas, a multi-layer urban canopy model is coupled to WRF-Chem. Using this canopy model at its full extend requires the introduction of several urban land use classes in WRF-Chem. The urban area of Stuttgart serves as a test bed for the modelling of a case scenario of the 2003 European Heat Wave. The selected mitigation measures are able to reduce the urban temperature by about 1 K and the mean ozone concentration by 5-8%. Model results however document also negative secondary effects on urban air quality, which are closely related to a decrease of vertical mixing in the urban boundary layer. An increase of primary pollutants NO and CO by 5-25% can be observed. In addition, highly reflective surfaces can increase peak ozone concentration by up to 12% due to a high intensity of reflected shortwave radiation accelerating photochemical reactions.

  14. Investment under Duality Risk Measure

    OpenAIRE

    Zuo Quan Xu

    2014-01-01

    One index satisfies the duality axiom if one agent, who is uniformly more risk-averse than another, accepts a gamble, the latter accepts any less risky gamble under the index. Aumann and Serrano (2008) show that only one index defined for so-called gambles satisfies the duality and positive homogeneity axioms. We call it a duality index. This paper extends the definition of duality index to all outcomes including all gambles, and considers a portfolio selection problem in a complete market, i...

  15. NASA Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation Remediation Technology Collaboration Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romeo, James

    2013-01-01

    NASA is committed to finding solutions to agency cleanup problems that are better, cheaper, and more effective than the status quo. Unfortunately, some potential solutions involve innovative technologies for which NASA remediation managers may not have a high level of understanding or confidence. Since 2004, NASA's Stennis Space Center (SSC) in Mississippi has been pumping groundwater contaminated with trichloroethylene (TCE) and other halogenated volatile organic compounds (HVOC) from their cleanup location designated "Area G" through extraction wells to an aboveground treatment system. Over time, however, the effectiveness of this treatment strategy has diminished and an alternative approach is needed. In 2012, professionals from NASA's Principal Center for Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation (TEERM) introduced SSC managers to an innovative technology for enhancing the performance of SSC's existing pump and treat system. The technology, generally referred to as in situ chemical oxidation (ISCO), involves slowly and continuously injecting a strong but safe chemical oxidant into the groundwater. Treatment is enhanced by a "surfactant-type effect" which causes residual contamination from saturated soil to be released into the dissolved-phase where it can be readily oxidized. Any dissolved-phase contamination that was not oxidized can be collected by the extraction well network and treated aboveground. SSC was not familiar with the technology so to increase their confidence, TEERM identified a contractor who was willing to demonstrate their product and process at a significantly reduced price. An initial, small-scale demonstration of ISCO began at sse in March 2012 and completed in August 2012. This successful demonstration was followed by three larger-scale ISCO demonstrations between August and December 2012. The contractor's innovative Continuous Injection System (CIS) incorporated "green" and sustainable technologies and practices. A slow injection rate was maintained autonomously by the CIS, eliminating the need for multiple mobilizations of personnel and powered equipment. The CIS was calibrated to deliver only as much reagent as the formation would accept without "short circuiting", minimizing material waste. Public utility water pressure was used to mix, dilute, and inject the reagent. NASA personnel were trained to operate and maintain the system and remote monitoring and injection control capabilities were developed, further reducing the need for contractor mobilizations to the site. An integrated solar photovoltaic panel was used to power the control valves and web monitoring telemetry. SSC provided hydrogen peroxide for the process using their existing supplier for the aboveground pump and treat systems. The only consumable required from the contractor was their proprietary activator to catalyze SSC's peroxide.

  16. A virtual community and cyberinfrastructure for collaboration in volcano research and risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentine, G. A.

    2012-12-01

    VHub (short for VolcanoHub, and accessible at vhub.org) is an online platform for collaboration in research and training related to volcanoes, the hazards they pose, and risk mitigation. The underlying concept is to provide a mechanism that enables workers to share information with colleagues around the globe; VHub and similar hub technologies could prove very powerful in collaborating and communicating about circum-Pacific volcanic hazards. Collaboration occurs around several different points: (1) modeling and simulation; (2) data sharing; (3) education and training; (4) volcano observatories; and (5) project-specific groups. VHub promotes modeling and simulation in two ways: (1) some models can be implemented on VHub for online execution. This eliminates the need to download and compile a code on a local computer. VHub can provide a central "warehouse" for such models that should result in broader dissemination. VHub also provides a platform that supports the more complex CFD models by enabling the sharing of code development and problem-solving knowledge, benchmarking datasets, and the development of validation exercises. VHub also provides a platform for sharing of data and datasets. The VHub development team is implementing the iRODS data sharing middleware (see irods.org). iRODS allows a researcher to access data that are located at participating data sources around the world (a "cloud" of data) as if the data were housed in a single virtual database. Education and training is another important use of the VHub platform. Audio-video recordings of seminars, PowerPoint slide sets, and educational simulations are all items that can be placed onto VHub for use by the community or by selected collaborators. An important point is that the "manager" of a given educational resource (or any other resource, such as a dataset or a model) can control the privacy of that resource, ranging from private (only accessible by, and known to, specific collaborators) to completely public. Materials for use in the classroom can be shared via VHub. VHub is a very useful platform for project-specific collaborations. With a group site on VHub where collaborators share documents, datasets, maps, and have ongoing discussions using the discussion board function. VHub is funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation, and is participating in development of larger earth-science cyberinfrastructure initiatives (EarthCube), as well as supporting efforts such as the Global Volcano Model.

  17. Measuring Systemic Risk: Robust Ranking Techniques Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Amirhossein Sadoghi

    2015-01-01

    The recent economic crisis has raised a wide awareness that the financial system should be considered as a complex network with financial institutions and financial dependencies respectively as nodes and links between these nodes. Systemic risk is defined as the risk of default of a large portion of financial exposures among institution in the network. Indeed, the structure of this network is an important element to measure systemic risk and there is no widely accepted methodology to determin...

  18. Sistema Inteligente de Mitigación de Riesgos Intelligent system for risk mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadira Ruiz Constanten

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available La acumulación de experiencias en la concepción de proyectos, el surgimiento de organizaciones y estándares dedicados a la planificación y administración de los mismos, han permitido que su desarrollo se haya convertido en una actividad planificada y controlada. La gestión de riesgos es un proceso complejo estrechamente vinculado al dominio que tenga el equipo de desarrollo sobre el tema. De su correcta gestión dependerán gran parte de los resultados, teniendo en cuenta las ventajas que tanto tecnológicas como económicas reportará para el equipo de desarrollo la mitigación de los mismos. Los riesgos han de analizarse para propiciar el aprovechamiento de las diversas oportunidades que puedan ofrecer y de la misma forma, evitar que sean muy severos e irreparables, los daños que puedan provocar. Los sistemas basados en casos (SBC ayudan y agilizan la toma de decisiones simulando las cadenas de razonamiento que realiza un experto para resolver un problema de su dominio. Su vinculación con distintos elementos del proceso de desarrollo de software posibilita la obtención de resultados más acertados a partir del conocimiento que se les introduce basado en la experiencia acumulada. Actualmente el centro de Informatización para la Seguridad Ciudadana ISEC, ha enfrentado dificultades para una rápida y acertada gestión de riesgos. La utilización de las facilidades que brindan los SBC para la gestión de riesgos resultaría ventajoso al brindar las herramientas necesarias para que los líderes de proyecto, basados en experiencias anteriores, realicen una planificación más acertada, teniendo en cuenta los diversos contratiempos que pudieran surgir.the accumulation of experiences in project design, and the emergence of standards organizations and engaged in planning and administration of the same, have allowed their development has become an activity planned and controlled. Risk management during the life cycle of software development is a complex process closely linked to the domain with the development team on the subject. In its correct management will depend largely on the results, taking into account both technological advantages for the team will bring economic development, mitigating them. To have a tool that automates this, streamline the decision-making process, is essential. In Artificial Intelligence there are different knowledge-based techniques that allow solution of problems in different ways. One of the most common techniques is knowledge Based Systems, which are computer systems that use domain knowledge to solve problems pertaining to this. This solution is essentially the same as that obtained by a person experienced in the problem domain. It is of great importance to use the advantages provided by this type of systems for developing applications to streamline the process of managing risks. To this will be discussed in this article, showing that facilitates the use of minimal resources and higher quality.

  19. Intelligent system for risk mitigation Sistema Inteligente de Mitigación de Riesgos.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadira Ruiz Constanten

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available the accumulation of experiences in project design, and the emergence of standards organizations and engaged in planning and administration of the same, have allowed their development has become an activity planned and controlled. Risk management during the life cycle of software development is a complex process closely linked to the domain with the development team on the subject. In its correct management will depend largely on the results, taking into account both technological advantages for the team will bring economic development, mitigating them. To have a tool that automates this, streamline the decision-making process, is essential. In Artificial Intelligence there are different knowledge-based techniques that allow solution of problems in different ways. One of the most common techniques is knowledge Based Systems, which are computer systems that use domain knowledge to solve problems pertaining to this. This solution is essentially the same as that obtained by a person experienced in the problem domain. It is of great importance to use the advantages provided by this type of systems for developing applications to streamline the process of managing risks. To this will be discussed in this article, showing that facilitates the use of minimal resources and higher quality.

    La acumulación de experiencias en la concepción de proyectos, el surgimiento de organizaciones y estándares dedicados a la planificación y administración de los mismos, han permitido que su desarrollo se haya convertido en una actividad planificada y controlada. La gestión de riesgos es un proceso complejo estrechamente vinculado al dominio que tenga el equipo de desarrollo sobre el tema. De su correcta gestión dependerán gran parte de los resultados, teniendo en cuenta las ventajas que tanto tecnológicas como económicas reportará para el equipo de desarrollo la mitigación de los mismos. Los riesgos han de analizarse para propiciar el aprovechamiento de las diversas oportunidades que puedan ofrecer y de la misma forma, evitar que sean muy severos e irreparables, los daños que puedan provocar. Los sistemas basados en casos (SBC ayudan y agilizan la toma de decisiones simulando las cadenas de razonamiento que realiza un experto para resolver un problema de su dominio. Su vinculación con distintos elementos del proceso de desarrollo de software posibilita la obtención de resultados más acertados a partir del conocimiento que se les introduce basado en la experiencia acumulada. Actualmente el centro de Informatización para la Seguridad Ciudadana ISEC, ha enfrentado dificultades para una rápida y acertada gestión de riesgos. La utilización de las facilidades que brindan los SBC para la gestión de riesgos resultaría ventajoso al brindar las herramientas necesarias para que los líderes de proyecto, basados en experiencias anteriores, realicen una planificación más acertada, teniendo en cuenta los diversos contratiempos que pudieran surgir.

  20. Mitigating Systematic Errors in Angular Correlation Function Measurements from Wide Field Surveys

    CERN Document Server

    Morrison, Christopher Brian

    2015-01-01

    We present an investigation into the effects of survey systematics such as varying depth, point spread function (PSF) size, and extinction on the galaxy selection and correlation in photometric, multi-epoch, wide area surveys. We take the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Lensing Survey (CFHTLenS) as an example. Variations in galaxy selection due to systematics are found to cause density fluctuations of up to 10% for some small fraction of the area for most galaxy redshift slices and as much as 50% for some extreme cases of faint high-redshift samples. This results in correlations of galaxies against survey systematics of order $\\sim$1% when averaged over the survey area. We present an empirical method for mitigating these systematic correlations from measurements of angular correlation functions using weighted random points. These weighted random catalogs are estimated from the observed galaxy over densities by mapping these to survey parameters. We are able to model and mitigate the effect of systematic correl...

  1. Measurement Decision Risk - The Importance of Definitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mimbs, Scott M.

    2008-01-01

    One of the more misunderstood areas of metrology is the Test Uncertainty Ratio (TUR) and the Test Accuracy Ratio (TAR). There have been many definitions over the years, but why are these definitions important to a discussion on measurement decision risk? The importance lies in the clarity of communication. Problems can immediately arise in the application (or misapplication) of the definition of these terms. In other words, while it is important to understand the definitions, it is more important to understand concepts behind the definitions and to be precise in how they are applied. The objective of any measurement is a decision. Measurement Decision Risk is a way to look at the quality of a measurement, and although it is not a new concept, it has generated a lot of attention since its addition as a requirement in the new U.S. National Standard, ANSIINCSL Z540.3-2006. In addition to Measurement Decision Risk as the prime method of managing measurement risk, Z540.3 has added, as a fall-back, an explicit definition for TUR. The impact these new requirements may have on calibration service providers has become the topic of much discussion and in some cases concern. This paper will look at the concepts behind the definitions and how they relate to Measurement Decision Risk. Using common examples, this paper will also provide a comparison of various elements of risk related to measurement science using the concepts of TAR, TUR, accuracy ratios, and Consumer Risk (False Accept Risk). The goal of this paper is to provide a better understanding of their relevance to the measurement decision process.

  2. Raptor mortality in wind farms of southern Spain: mitigation measures on a major migration bottleneck area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gallego, Antonio-Roman Munoz; Lucas, Manuela De; Casado, Eva; Ferrer, Miguel

    2011-07-01

    Full text: To assess and monitor the impact of wind farms on fauna is crucial if we want to achieve ecologically sustainable development of this renewable energy resource. Today there are clear evidences that the probability of raptor collision depends critically on species behaviour and weather conditions, and the topographic factors related to each windmill. In our study area EIA were not able to predict this differential risk and in these circumstances mitigating the causes of bird mortality becomes a task of major importance, especially to those wind farms located in the Strait of Gibraltar, a water crossing of 14 km at its shortest distance acting as a major migration bottleneck for Paleo-African soaring migrants. We collected all available information on raptor collision from 1992, when the first wind farm was installed, and from 2005 until present a total of 262 turbines, grouped into 20 wind farms, were surveyed in a daily basis through a surveillance program with the main goal of register the actual mortality of birds. A total of 1291 raptors of 19 species were found of which 78.5% correspond to two species, the griffon vulture (Gyps fulvus) and the kestrel (Falco tinnunculus). In order to mitigate the impact on raptors, and particularly on the griffon vulture, in 2007 a program based on selective stopping of turbines was imposed, in collaboration with the environmental competent authority, on new approved projects. During 2008 there was a reduction in mortality by 48%, which remained in 2009 with a remarkably lower economic cost. An analysis of the temporal collision patterns will be presented and discussed, with special attention to those species suffering higher mortality rate, and to those who have some degree of threat. (Author)

  3. US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wing, Ian Sue; Monier, Erwan; Stern, Ari; Mundra, Anupriya

    2015-11-01

    We estimate the costs of climate change to US agriculture, and associated potential benefits of abating greenhouse gas emissions. Five major crops’ yield responses to climatic variation are modeled empirically, and the results combined with climate projections for a no-policy, high-warming future, as well as moderate and stringent mitigation scenarios. Unabated warming reduces yields of wheat and soybeans by 2050, and cotton by 2100, but moderate warming increases yields of all crops except wheat. Yield changes are monetized using the results of economic simulations within an integrated climate-economy modeling framework. Uncontrolled warming’s economic effects on major crops are slightly positive—annual benefits <4 B. These are amplified by emission reductions, but subject to diminishing returns—by 2100 reaching 17 B under moderate mitigation, but only 7 B with stringent mitigation. Costs and benefits are sensitive to irreducible uncertainty about the fertilization effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, without which unabated warming incurs net costs of up to 18 B, generating benefits to moderate (stringent) mitigation as large as 26 B (20 B).

  4. Marine and Hydrokinetic Renewable Energy Technologies: Potential Navigational Impacts and Mitigation Measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cool, Richard, M.; Hudon, Thomas, J.; Basco, David, R.; Rondorf, Neil, E.

    2009-12-10

    On April 15, 2008, the Department of Energy (DOE) issued a Funding Opportunity Announcement for Advanced Water Power Projects which included a Topic Area for Marine and Hydrokinetic Renewable Energy Market Acceleration Projects. Within this Topic Area, DOE identified potential navigational impacts of marine and hydrokinetic renewable energy technologies and measures to prevent adverse impacts on navigation as a sub-topic area. DOE defines marine and hydrokinetic technologies as those capable of utilizing one or more of the following resource categories for energy generation: ocean waves; tides or ocean currents; free flowing water in rivers or streams; and energy generation from the differentials in ocean temperature. PCCI was awarded Cooperative Agreement DE-FC36-08GO18177 from the DOE to identify the potential navigational impacts and mitigation measures for marine hydrokinetic technologies, as summarized herein. The contract also required cooperation with the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) and two recipients of awards (Pacific Energy Ventures and reVision) in a sub-topic area to develop a protocol to identify streamlined, best-siting practices. Over the period of this contract, PCCI and our sub-consultants, David Basco, Ph.D., and Neil Rondorf of Science Applications International Corporation, met with USCG headquarters personnel, with U.S. Army Corps of Engineers headquarters and regional personnel, with U.S. Navy regional personnel and other ocean users in order to develop an understanding of existing practices for the identification of navigational impacts that might occur during construction, operation, maintenance, and decommissioning. At these same meetings, “standard” and potential mitigation measures were discussed so that guidance could be prepared for project developers. Concurrently, PCCI reviewed navigation guidance published by the USCG and international community. This report summarizes the results of this effort, provides guidance in the form of a checklist for assessing the navigational impacts of potential marine and hydrokinetic projects, and provides guidance for improving the existing navigational guidance promulgated by the USCG in Navigation Vessel Inspection Circular 02 07. At the request of the USCG, our checklist and mitigation guidance was written in a generic nature so that it could be equally applied to offshore wind projects. PCCI teleconferenced on a monthly basis with DOE, Pacific Energy Ventures and reVision in order to share information and review work products. Although the focus of our effort was on marine and hydrokinetic technologies, as defined above, this effort drew upon earlier work by the USCG on offshore wind renewable energy installations. The guidance provided herein can be applied equally to marine and hydrokinetic technologies and to offshore wind, which are collectively referred to by the USCG as Renewable Energy Installations.

  5. Mitigating the consequences of extreme events on strategic facilities: evaluation of volcanic and seismic risk affecting the Caspian oil and gas pipelines in the Republic of Georgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasquarè, F A; Tormey, D; Vezzoli, L; Okrostsvaridze, A; Tutberidze, B

    2011-07-01

    In this work we identify and quantify new seismic and volcanic risks threatening the strategic Caspian oil and gas pipelines through the Republic of Georgia, in the vicinity of the recent Abuli Samsari Volcanic Ridge, and evaluate risk reduction measures, mitigation measures, and monitoring. As regards seismic risk, we identified a major, NW-SE trending strike-slip fault; based on the analysis of fault planes along this major transcurrent structure, an about N-S trend of the maximum, horizontal compressive stress (σ1) was determined, which is in good agreement with data instrumentally derived after the 1986, M 5.6 Paravani earthquake and its aftershock. Particularly notable is the strong alignment of volcanic vents along an about N-S trend that suggests a magma rising controlled by the about N-S-directed σ1. The original pipeline design included mitigation measures for seismic risk and other geohazards, including burial of the pipeline for its entire length, increased wall thickness, block valve spacing near recognized hazards, and monitoring of known landslide hazards. However, the design did not consider volcanic risk or the specific seismic hazards revealed by this study. The result of our analysis is that the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, as well as the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum South Caucasian natural gas pipeline (SCP) were designed in such a way that they significantly reduce the risk posed by the newly-identified geohazards in the vicinity of the Abuli-Samsari Ridge. No new measures are recommended for the pipeline itself as a result of this study. However, since the consequences of long-term shut-down would be very damaging to the economies of Western Europe, we conclude that the regionally significant BTC and SCP warrant greater protections, described in the final section of or work. The overall objective of our effort is to present the results in a matrix framework that allows the technical information to be used further in the decision-making process, with the goal of reducing the uncertainty in the final decision. This approach is applicable to the study of risks in other pipeline systems. PMID:21385663

  6. A Survey of Measurement, Mitigation, and Verification Field Technologies for Carbon Sequestration Geologic Storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, K. K.; Klara, S. M.; Srivastava, R. D.

    2004-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy's (U.S. DOE's) Carbon Sequestration Program is developing state-of-the-science technologies for measurement, mitigation, and verification (MM&V) in field operations of geologic sequestration. MM&V of geologic carbon sequestration operations will play an integral role in the pre-injection, injection, and post-injection phases of carbon capture and storage projects to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Effective MM&V is critical to the success of CO2 storage projects and will be used by operators, regulators, and stakeholders to ensure safe and permanent storage of CO2. In the U.S. DOE's Program, Carbon sequestration MM&V has numerous instrumental roles: Measurement of a site's characteristics and capability for sequestration; Monitoring of the site to ensure the storage integrity; Verification that the CO2 is safely stored; and Protection of ecosystems. Other drivers for MM&V technology development include cost-effectiveness, measurement precision, and frequency of measurements required. As sequestration operations are implemented in the future, it is anticipated that measurements over long time periods and at different scales will be required; this will present a significant challenge. MM&V sequestration technologies generally utilize one of the following approaches: below ground measurements; surface/near-surface measurements; aerial and satellite imagery; and modeling/simulations. Advanced subsurface geophysical technologies will play a primary role for MM&V. It is likely that successful MM&V programs will incorporate multiple technologies including but not limited to: reservoir modeling and simulations; geophysical techniques (a wide variety of seismic methods, microgravity, electrical, and electromagnetic techniques); subsurface fluid movement monitoring methods such as injection of tracers, borehole and wellhead pressure sensors, and tiltmeters; surface/near surface methods such as soil gas monitoring and infrared sensors and; aerial and satellite imagery. This abstract will describe results, similarities, and contrasts for funded studies from the U.S. DOE's Carbon Sequestration Program including examples from the Sleipner North Sea Project, the Canadian Weyburn Field/Dakota Gasification Plant Project, the Frio Formation Texas Project, and Yolo County Bioreactor Landfill Project. The abstract will also address the following: How are the terms ``measurement,'' ``mitigation''and ``verification'' defined in the Program? What is the U.S. DOE's Carbon Sequestration Program Roadmap and what are the Roadmap goals for MM&V? What is the current status of MM&V technologies?

  7. Engineering Biochar Hydrophobicity to Mitigate Risk of Top-Soil Erosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinney, T. J.; Dean, M. R.; Hockaday, W. C.; Masiello, C. A.

    2009-12-01

    The pyrolysis of biomass is a net carbon negative method of sequestering atmospheric carbon as recalcitrant black carbon. The resulting solid product, called biochar, is likely to improve agricultural soils when used as a soil conditioner in sustainable land management practice. Biochar has been shown to improve crop yields, improve water-holding capacity in sandy soils, increase cation exchange capacity (CEC), and retain nutrients from fertilization longer than soils unamended with biochar. Biochar undoubtedly has high potential as both a carbon management tool and a tool to increase global food production. However, little is understood about possible side effects of biochar in agricultural soils such as ecosystem toxicity, interactions with biota, and modification of soil hydrologic properties, such as permeability. The hydrophobicity of a soil determines how easily precipitation can permeate soil pores. Water that fails to permeate is redirected as runoff, responsible for the detachment and transport of nutrient-rich topsoil particles. Mitigating top-soil erosion is an important aspect of sustainable land management. Biochar, primarily composed of condensed aromatic structures, is a hydrophobic material and incorporating it into agricultural soils may act to alter soil hydrology through multiple avenues. These include a likely increase in soil water-holding capacity (a positive outcome) and a potential increase in soil hydrophobicity (a negative outcome). In an effort to understand how to engineer reduced biochar hydrophobicity, we investigated the hydrophobicity of biochars as a function of biomass feedstock, pyrolysis temperatures, and post-pyrolysis chemical treatments. We used Water Drop Penetration Time (WDPT) and Molarity of an Ethanol Drop (MED) tests to measure hydrophobicity, and FTIR, CPMAS-NMR, and N2-BET to probe the surface chemistry, bulk chemistry, and surface area of various biochars, respectively. We used post-pyrolysis chemical treatments of biochar to study the origin of biochar hydrophobicity and to assess the possibility of reducing hydrophobicity prior to soil amendment. We used correlative analysis to study the relationship between hydrophobicity, biomass and pyrolysis characteristics, as well as chemical treatments. Future work will focus on engineering designer biochars which minimize hydrophobicity while maximizing positive benefits, such as ion exchange capacity.

  8. Towards real-time risk mitigation for NPP in Switzerland: the potential role of EEW and OEF.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cauzzi, Carlo; Wiemer, Stefan; Behr, Yannik; Clinton, John; Renault, Philippe; Le Guenan, Thomas; Douglas, John; Woessner, Jochen; Biro, Yesim; Caprio, Marta; Cua, Georgia

    2014-05-01

    Spurred by the research activities being carried out within the EC-funded project REAKT (Strategies and Tools for Real Time Earthquake Risk Reduction, FP7, contract no. 282862, 2011-2014, www.reaktproject.eu), we present herein the key elements to understanding the potential benefits of routinely using Earthquake Early Warning and Operational Earthquake Forecasting methods to mitigate the seismic risk at NPP in Switzerland. The advantages of using the aforementioned real-time risk reduction tools are critically discussed based on the limitations of the current scientific knowledge and technology, as well as on the costs associated to both system maintenance and machine- or human-triggered actions following an alert. Basic inputs to this discussion are, amongst others: a) the performances of the Swiss seismic network (http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/monitor, where SeisComP3 is used as earthquake monitoring software) and the selected EEW algorithm (the Virtual Seismologist, VS, http://www.seiscomp3.org/doc/seattle/2013.200/apps/vs.html), in terms of correct detections, false alerts, and missed events; b) the reliability of time-dependent hazard scenarios for the region of interest; c) a careful assessment of the frequency of occurrence of critical warnings based on the local and regional seismicity; d) the identification of the mitigation actions and their benefits and costs for the stakeholders.

  9. Induction motor voltage flicker analysis and its mitigation measures using custom power devices: A case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SANJAY. A. DEOKAR,

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper suggests methods for estimating short time flicker (PST severity on 22/3.3 kV network supplying induction motor loads of municipal integrated water pumping system. The impact of additional connection of induction motors to the same system has been analyzed. Measurements are done at the point of common coupling (PCC to identify background short time flicker levels and the contribution of the already operating induction motors. The paper also analyses and compares different voltage flicker mitigation methodologies to assess their performance with change in line impedance phase angle for this particular application. Here, Matlab-7.01/PSB is used to present the detailed results of all voltage flickers compensating methodologies and to assess the impact of line impedance X/R sweep on effectiveness of custom power devices. It is observed that distribution static synchronous compensator (DSTATCOM is found more effective for compensating voltage flicker generated by the induction motor load.

  10. Dynamic strain measurement system with fiber Bragg gratings and noise mitigation techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A low-cost fiber Bragg grating (FBG) vibrometer specifically suited for structural monitoring and aimed at the detection of low-amplitude vibrations is presented. The optical system exploits an intensity modulation principle of operation, while signal processing techniques are used to complement the transducer to improve the performances: a recursive least-squares adaptive filter improves the noise power mitigation by 14 dB, and an efficient spectral estimator permits operating spectral analysis even under high noise conditions. With these methods, a strain sensitivity of 5.6 n? has been achieved in the 60 ? range. Experimental assessment tests carried out in typical structural monitoring contexts have demonstrated that the developed sensor is well suited to measure mechanical perturbations of different structures

  11. Using inferred drivers of discarding behaviour to evaluate discard mitigation measures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Catchpole, T.L.; Feekings, Jordan P.; Madsen, Niels; Palialexis, A.; Vassilopoulou, V.; Valeiras, J.; Garcia, T.; Nikolic, N.; Rochet, M.J.

    2014-01-01

    that all catches are landed. To develop successful discard mitigation measures, it is necessary to identify the reasons for discarding. Here, we have developed a simple model that can be applied to data from observer programmes (ObsPs) to establish the contribution of different drivers of discarding...... behaviour. The analysis makes inferences on the causes of discarding by partitioning discards into four categories based on the length of the fish and the associated regulatory restrictions. The drivers are defined as: fish discarded below the legalminimum landing size; fish forwhich there is no market and...... that do not have aminimum landing size; fish for which there are inconsistencies in market and sorting practices; and discards that can be attributed to fishers’ responses to quota restrictions. The approach is applied to data generated from ObsPs from five EuropeanMember States. All the inferred...

  12. Policies, measures and the monitoring needs of forest sector carbon mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forest sector mitigation options can be grouped into three categories: (1) management for carbon (C) conservation, (2) management for C storage, and (3) management for C conservation and sequestration worldwide and the average costs of achieving it. It reviews policy measures that have been successfully applied at regional and project levels toward reduction of atmospheric greenhouse gases. It also describes both national programs and jointly implemented international activities. The monitoring methods, and the items to monitor, differ across these categories. Remote sensing is a good approach for the monitoring of C conservation, but not for C substitution, which requires estimation of the fossil fuels that would be displaced and the continued monitoring of electricity generation sources. C storage, on the other hand, includes C in products which may be traded internationally. Their monitoring will require that bi- or multi-lateral protocols be set up for this purpose. 1 fig., 4 tabs., 23 refs

  13. Experiment and numerical studies of inerting efficiency for H2-risk mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the last two decades, considerable efforts have been spent to develop and validate numerical codes for severe accident analysis. CAST3M-NAUTILUS code has been designed for nuclear naval propulsion applications that share several common features : steel containment, radiologic pool, post accident interting. In the case of a severe accident, the presence of the pool for the land prototype RES leads to a stratified hot upper zone. In parallel the MISTRA facility (medium scale experiment of 100m3) located at CEA Saclay (France), has been designed for the experimental study of containment thermal-hydraulics and hydrogen risk [1], with a pressure range of 1 to 5.5 bars, and gas temperature up to 200 .deg. C. Steam, nitrogen and helium can be injected inside the containment. The mass inflow rate of steam varies between 0.08 kg/s to 0.14 kg/s. Three levels of condensers, located inside the vessel, are independently thermally regulated (20 .deg. C to 140 .deg. C) and provide well-defined boudary conditions. In the case of a break in the reactor coolant system, a large release of steam into the containment leads to a first pressure increase. After that the reactor core may be drained and can overheat. The chemical reaction between zirconium and steam may be initiated leading to a hydrogen production. The hydrogen hazard mitigation strategy for the naval propulsion reactors consists in an early inerting, soon after the main steam release and before the hydrogen release produced from the oxidation of the fuel rods. Two types of experiments (inerting and helium injection) have been carried out in MISTRA to assess the mixing of the incondensable gases (air, nitrogen and helium). In order to reproduce the particularities due to the presence of the pool,a temperature difference of 40 .deg. C is maintained between the upper condenser and the two lower ones. We focus in this paper on the helium injection and dilution test (after inerting). The scenario is split into 3 phases. The first concerns the preheating (to reduce as much as possible the spurious condensation), the inerting and a relaxation phase to get stable mean values for the pressure, temperature and condensation mass flow rate. Then (second phase) a constant mass flow helium injection lasts 1 hour, and then is stopped while the steam injection is maintained constant (0.08 kg/s) for 2 hours more (third phase). Precomputations using the pressure finite element solver of NAUTILUS with a turbulence length scale model and a low Mach number asymptotic model have been already performed. They exhibit a strong stratification in the upper zone but however a rather good mixing of helium and nitrogen at the end of the scenario. The feed back with the experimental results enlightens some weaknesses of the low Mach number model which we discuss

  14. Recommendations to mitigate against human health risks incurred due to energetic particle irradiation beyond low earth orbit/BLEO

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna-Lawlor, Susan; Bhardwaj, Anil; Ferrari, Franco; Kuznetsov, Nikolay; Lal, Ajay K.; Li, Yinghui; Nagamatsu, Aiko; Nymmik, Rikho; Panasyuk, Michael; Petrov, Vladislav; Reitz, Günther; Pinsky, Lawrence; Shukor, Muszaphar (Sheikh); Singhvi, Ashok K.; Straube, Ulrich; Tomi, Leena; Lawrence, Townsend

    2015-04-01

    An account is provided of the main sources of energetic particle radiation in interplanetary space (Galactic Cosmic Radiation and Solar Energetic Particles) and career dose limits presently utilized by NASA to mitigate against the cancer and non-cancer effects potentially incurred by astronauts due to irradiation by these components are presented. Certain gaps in knowledge that presently militate against mounting viable human exploration in deep space due to the inherent health risks are identified and recommendations made as to how these gaps might be closed within a framework of global international cooperation.

  15. Mitigating systematic errors in angular correlation function measurements from wide field surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, C. B.; Hildebrandt, H.

    2015-12-01

    We present an investigation into the effects of survey systematics such as varying depth, point spread function size, and extinction on the galaxy selection and correlation in photometric, multi-epoch, wide area surveys. We take the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Lensing Survey (CFHTLenS) as an example. Variations in galaxy selection due to systematics are found to cause density fluctuations of up to 10 per cent for some small fraction of the area for most galaxy redshift slices and as much as 50 per cent for some extreme cases of faint high-redshift samples. This results in correlations of galaxies against survey systematics of order 1 per cent when averaged over the survey area. We present an empirical method for mitigating these systematic correlations from measurements of angular correlation functions using weighted random points. These weighted random catalogues are estimated from the observed galaxy overdensities by mapping these to survey parameters. We are able to model and mitigate the effect of systematic correlations allowing for non-linear dependences of density on systematics. Applied to CFHTLenS, we find that the method reduces spurious correlations in the data by a factor of 2 for most galaxy samples and as much as an order of magnitude in others. Such a treatment is particularly important for an unbiased estimation of very small correlation signals, as e.g. from weak gravitational lensing magnification bias. We impose a criterion for using a galaxy sample in a magnification measurement of the majority of the systematic correlations show improvement and are less than 10 per cent of the expected magnification signal when combined in the galaxy cross-correlation. After correction the galaxy samples in CFHTLenS satisfy this criterion for zphot < 0.9 and will be used in a future analysis of magnification.

  16. Radon mitigation in private dwellings. Summary of measures under the National Action Plan against Cancer in Norway 1999-2003

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The report summarizes the remedial measurements carried out under the National Action Plan against Cancer in Norway in the period 1999-2003.The cost effectiveness of the state subsidized remedial measures against radon is evaluated. Other measurements under the National Action Plan against Cancer have also been evaluated, such as measurements of radon in 38.000 dwellings in 158 municipalities, information measures, and actions to increase radon mitigation competence in the building construction industry and in the municipalities. (Author)

  17. Money Matters: Mitigating risk to spark private investments in energy efficiency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    Scaling-up investment in energy efficiency is essential to achieving a sustainable energy future. Despite energy efficiency's recognised advantages as a bankable investment with immense climate change mitigation benefits, most of the energy efficiency potential remains untapped and the investment gap to achieve climate goals is tremendous. This report seeks to improve understanding as to why this is so, and what can be done about it.

  18. Mitigating Corrosion Risks in Oil and Gas Equipment by Electrochemical Protection: Top of the Line Corrosion

    OpenAIRE

    Ajayi, Fredric

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated the corrosion processes at the top and bottom of carbon steel pipelines transporting wet gases, and studied possible chemical mitigation strategies. First, immersion tests were carried out using carbon steel to study the effects of de-aeration with high purity nitrogen gas on the corrosion rate. Secondly, the corrosion rate was assessed for varying chloride ion concentrations in an aerated environment. In general, increasing de-aeration time changes the corrosion mecha...

  19. Soil bio-engineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area

    OpenAIRE

    A. Petrone; F. Preti

    2009-01-01

    The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on authochtonal plants suitable for this kind of works and on economic efficiency is essential for the divulgation of such techniques. The present paper is focused on this two issues related to the realization of various typologies of soil bio-engineering works in the humid tropic of Nicaragua.


    ...

  20. Measurement requirements for a near-Earth asteroid impact mitigation demonstration mission

    CERN Document Server

    Wolters, Stephen D; Wells, Nigel; Saunders, Christopher; McBride, Neil

    2011-01-01

    A concept for an Impact Mitigation Preparation Mission, called Don Quijote, is to send two spacecraft to a Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA): an Orbiter and an Impactor. The Impactor collides with the asteroid while the Orbiter measures the resulting change in the asteroid's orbit, by means of a Radio Science Experiment (RSE) carried out before and after impact. Three parallel Phase A studies on Don Quijote were carried out for the European Space Agency: the research presented here reflects outcomes of the study by QinetiQ. We discuss the mission objectives with regards to the prioritisation of payload instruments, with emphasis on the interpretation of the impact. The Radio Science Experiment is described and it is examined how solar radiation pressure may increase the uncertainty in measuring the orbit of the target asteroid. It is determined that to measure the change in orbit accurately a thermal IR spectrometer is mandatory, to measure the Yarkovsky effect. The advantages of having a laser altimeter are discusse...

  1. Measurement requirements for a Near-Earth Asteroid impact mitigation demonstration mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolters, Stephen D.; Ball, Andrew J.; Wells, Nigel; Saunders, Christopher; McBride, Neil

    2011-10-01

    A concept for an Impact Mitigation Preparation Mission, called Don Quijote, is to send two spacecrafts to a Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA): an Orbiter and an Impactor. The Impactor collides with the asteroid while the Orbiter measures the resulting change in the asteroid's orbit, by means of a Radio Science Experiment (RSE) carried out before and after the impact. Three parallel Phase A studies on Don Quijote were carried out for the European Space Agency: the research presented here reflects the outcomes of the study by QinetiQ. We discuss the mission objectives with regard to the prioritisation of payload instruments, with emphasis on the interpretation of the impact. The Radio Science Experiment is described and it is examined how solar radiation pressure may increase the uncertainty in measuring the orbit of the target asteroid. It is determined that to measure the change in orbit accurately a thermal IR spectrometer is mandatory, to measure the Yarkovsky effect. The advantages of having a laser altimeter are discussed. The advantages of a dedicated wide-angle impact camera are discussed and the field-of-view is initially sized through a simple model of the impact.

  2. Soil physical conditions as livestock treading effect in tropical Agroecosystem of dryland and strategies to mitigate desertification risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florentino, A.; Torres, D.; Ospina, A.; Contreras, J.; Palma, Z.; Silvera, J.

    2012-04-01

    Soil degradation in natural ecosystem of arid and semi-arid zones of Venezuela due to livestock treading (goats) it is an important problem that affect their environment functions; increase soil erodibility, bulk density, water losses and reduce porosity, water infiltration rate and soil structural stability. The presence of biological crust (BSC) in this type of soil it is very common. The objective of this study was to evaluate the soil surface physical quality through the use of selected indicators, mainly some of that related to structural stability, infiltrability and the prediction of soil erosion risk in two zones of Lara state: 1) Qubor (QUI) and 2) Humocaro Bajo (HB). The study was conducted on two selected plots (30 m x 20 m) in each zone, with natural vegetation and BSC cover, with areas affected by different degree of compaction due to treading in the paths where the goats are moving. Five sites per plot (50 cm x 50 cm) under vegetation cover and five sites over the path with bare soil were sampled (0-7,5 and 7,5-15 cm depth). The results showed that soil macroaggregate stability (equivalent diameter of aggregates >0,25 mm) was significantly higher (pvegetation cover and BSC compared with bare soil. Sealing index, as a measure of aggregate stability, determined in laboratory under simulated rain and expressed as hydraulic conductivity of soil surface sealing (Kse), decreased with decreasing soil vegetation cover and the presence of BSC. However, Ksei (i: inicial) and Ksef (f: final) were significantly greater in soil with more than 75 % of BSC in comparison to bare soils. The sealing index it is used to for to estimate changes in soil water losses. As the sealing index increases, the susceptibility of the soil to undergo surface sealing or slaking decrease. These results suggested that soil physical properties are potential indicators of soil quality with regard to soil erodibility and showed that soils under vegetation cover had higher quality level than bare soils. Some predictive regression equation had a high R2 value and was a useful tool for to evaluate the risk of extreme climatic changes and to mitigate their detrimental effects. We conclude that the global climatic change (CCG) will have a negative effect on these agroecosystems functions, mainly in soil and water conservation, carbon sequestration, and productivity. Natural recovery of soil physical properties from treading damage of pastoral soils will be possible in the future with the implementation of soil management strategies, mainly through re-vegetation and recuperation of the BSC. Key word: Soil structure; aggregate stability; soil sealing index; hydraulic conductivity of surface sealing.

  3. Observational studies in South African mines to mitigate seismic risks: implications for mine safety and tectonic earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durrheim, Raymond; Ogaswara, Hiroshi; Nakatani, Masao; Yabe, Yasuo; Milev, Alexander; Cichowicz, Artur; Kawakata, Hironori; Moriya, Hirokazu; Naoi, Makoto; Kgarume, Thabang; Murakami, Osamu; Mngadi, Siyanda

    2014-05-01

    Seismicity poses a significant risk to workers in deep and overstressed mines, such as the gold mines in the Witwatersrand basin of South Africa, as well as inhabitants of earthquake-prone regions such as Japan. A 5-year collaborative project entitled "Observational studies in South African mines to mitigate seismic risks" was launched in 2010 to address these risks, drawing on over a century of South African and Japanese research experience with respect to mining-related and tectonic earthquakes, respectively. The project has three main aims: (1) to learn more about earthquake preparation and triggering mechanisms by deploying arrays of sensitive sensors within rock volumes where mining is likely to induce seismic activity; (2) to learn more about earthquake rupture and rockburst damage phenomena by deploying robust strong ground motion sensors close to potential fault zones and on stope hangingwalls; and (3) to upgrade the South African surface national seismic network in the mining districts. Research sites have been established at mines operated by Sibanye Gold (Hlanganani Shaft and Cooke #4 Shaft) and Anglogold Ashanti (Moab-Khotsong). More than 70 boreholes (totalling more than 2.8 km in length) have been drilled to locate "capable" faults i.e. faults that are considered likely to become seismically active as a result of mining activity and to deploy sensors. Acoustic emission sensors, strain- and tilt meters, and controlled seismic sources were installed to monitor the deformation of the rock mass, the accumulation of damage during the earthquake preparation phase, and changes in dynamic stress produced by the propagation of the rupture front. These data are being integrated with measurements of rock properties, stope closure, stope strong motion, seismic data recorded by the mine-wide network, and stress modelling. The mid-point of the 5-year project has passed. New observations of stress and the response of the rock mass to mining have already been made, and many more are expected in the next two years as the mining front sweeps through the monitoring arrays. We will describe examples of technology adaptation and transfer, as well as preliminary research findings. The strain cell and associated tools required for the compact conical-ended borehole overcoring (CCBO) technique, which determines the 3D stress tensor by a single overcoring of a strain cell, have been reduced to the core size used in South African mines. This modified method was tested at three sites, where it was demonstrated that three overcoring measurements can be made within two shifts. A large number of acoustic emission (AE) sensors were installed at Cooke #4 mine. In the period from 30 September to 5 October in 2011 the monitoring system automatically located 40,555 AE, some of which were located by Moriya et al. using the joint hypocenter location method. Moriya et al. applied the multiplet and the double-difference analysis to the selected multiplets, successfully delineating multiple planar structures. Ultimately we hope that this project will produce knowledge and technology that will reduce the risk posed by both mining-induced and tectonic earthquakes

  4. Evaluation of possible mitigation measures to prevent introduction and spread of African swine fever virus through wild boar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    European Food Safety Authority

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This scientific report has been prepared in response to a request for urgent scientific and technical assistance under Art 31 of Regulation (EC No 178/2002, in relation to possible mitigation measures to prevent introduction and spread of African swine fever virus (ASFV. It was requested to assess the feasibility to drastically reduce the wild boar population by hunting or by the use of traps, and to assess if prevention of movement of wild boars by feeding or by artificial physical barriers reduces the risk of spread of ASFV. No evidence was found in scientific literature proving that wild boar populations can be drastically reduced by hunting or trapping in Europe. The main reasons are the adaptive behaviour of wild boar, compensatory growth of the population and the possible influx of wild boar from adjacent areas. Thus, drastic hunting is not a tool to reduce the risk for introduction and spread of ASFV in wild boar populations. Furthermore, wild boar density thresholds for introduction, spread and persistence of ASFV in the wild boar populations are currently impossible to establish, due to the uncertainty regarding the extent of the spread and maintenance of ASFV, the biases in population datasets, the complex population structures and dynamics. Furthermore, attempts to drastically reduce wild boar populations may even increase transmission and facilitate progressive geographical spread of ASFV, since intensive hunting pressure on wild boar populations leads to dispersion of groups and individuals. Artificial feeding of wild boar might increase the risk of ASFV spread. Fencing can restrict wild boar movements, however further knowledge of the ASF epidemiology and spatial distribution of wild boar is required to identify the areas where fencing could be used as one possible element of a control programme and to assess the feasibility of its implementation.

  5. Nanomanufacturing concerns about measurements made in the SEM part IV: charging and its mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Postek, Michael T.; Vladár, András. E.

    2015-08-01

    This is the fourth part of a series of tutorial papers discussing various causes of measurement uncertainty in scanned particle beam instruments, and some of the solutions researched and developed at NIST and other research institutions. Scanned particle beam instruments especially the scanning electron microscope (SEM) have gone through tremendous evolution to become indispensable tools for many and diverse scientifi c and industrial applications. These improvements have signifi cantly enhanced their performance and made them far easier to operate. But, the ease of operation has also fostered operator complacency. In addition, the user-friendliness has reduced the apparent need for extensive operator training. Unfortunately, this has led to the idea that the SEM is just another expensive "digital camera" or another peripheral device connected to a computer and that all of the problems in obtaining good quality images and data have been solved. Hence, one using these instruments may be lulled into thinking that all of the potential pitfalls have been fully eliminated and believing that, everything one sees on the micrograph is always correct. But, as described in this and the earlier papers, this may not be the case. Care must always be taken when reliable quantitative data are being sought. The fi rst paper in this series discussed some of the issues related to signal generation in the SEM, including instrument calibration, electron beam-sample interactions and the need for physics-based modeling to understand the actual image formation mechanisms to properly interpret SEM images. The second paper has discussed another major issue confronting the microscopist: specimen contamination and methods to eliminate it. The third paper discussed mechanical vibration and stage drift and some useful solutions to mitigate the problems caused by them, and here, in this the fourth contribution, the issues related to specimen "charging" and its mitigation are discussed relative to dimensional metrology.

  6. Educational Approach to Seismic Risk Mitigation in Indian Himalayas -Hazard Map Making Workshops at High Schools-

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koketsu, K.; Oki, S.; Kimura, M.; Chadha, R. K.; Davuluri, S.

    2014-12-01

    How can we encourage people to take preventive measures against damage risks and empower them to take the right actions in emergencies to save their lives? The conventional approach taken by scientists had been disseminating intelligible information on up-to-date seismological knowledge. However, it has been proven that knowledge alone does not have enough impact to modify people's behaviors in emergencies (Oki and Nakayachi, 2012). On the other hand, the conventional approach taken by practitioners had been to conduct emergency drills at schools or workplaces. The loss of many lives from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake has proven that these emergency drills were not enough to save people's lives, unless they were empowered to assess the given situation on their own and react flexibly. Our challenge is to bridge the gap between knowledge and practice. With reference to best practices observed in Tohoku, such as The Miracles of Kamaishi, our endeavor is to design an effective Disaster Preparedness Education Program that is applicable to other disaster-prone regions in the world, even with different geological, socio-economical and cultural backgrounds. The key concepts for this new approach are 1) empowering individuals to take preventive actions to save their lives, 2) granting community-based understanding of disaster risks and 3) building a sense of reality and relevancy to disasters. With these in mind, we held workshops at some high schools in the Lesser Himalayan Region, combining lectures with an activity called "Hazard Map Making" where students proactively identify and assess the hazards around their living areas and learn practical strategies on how to manage risks. We observed the change of awareness of the students by conducting a preliminary questionnaire survey and interviews after each session. Results strongly implied that the significant change of students' attitudes towards disaster preparedness occurred not by the lectures of scientific knowledge, but after completing the whole program of activities. Students closed their presentation by spontaneously adding messages to others about importance of life and preparedness. In this presentation, we share good practices in terms of program design and facilitation that encouraged the transition of participants from a learner to an actor.

  7. The Role of Insurance in Operational Risk Mitigation - A Case Study

    OpenAIRE

    Milan Rippel; Lucie Suchánková; Petr Teplý

    2012-01-01

    Operational risk management has becoming more important in the financial industry in the recent years mainly due to scandals in UBS in 2011 and Societé Générale in 2007. The reasons for this attention can be attributed to introduction of operational risk into the Basel II regulatory framework and to high losses stemming from operational risk events. Despite the fact that the new Basel III proposal does not give much attention to this risk, operational risk should not be underestimated. In thi...

  8. Risk measures with non-Gaussian fluctuations

    CERN Document Server

    Bormetti, G; Montagna, G; Nicrosini, O

    2006-01-01

    Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modeling the power-law tails of the returns distribution in terms of a Student-$t$ (or Tsallis) distribution. Non-Gaussian closed-form solutions for Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall are obtained and standard formulae known in the literature under the normality assumption are recovered as a special case. The implications of the approach for risk management are demonstrated through an empirical analysis of financial time series from the Italian stock market. Detailed comparison with the results of the widely used procedures of quantitative finance, such as parametric normal approach, RiskMetrics methodology and historical simulation, as well as with previous findings in the literature, are shown and commented. Particular attention is paid to quantify the size of the errors affecting the risk measures obtaine...

  9. Quantitative Measures of Mineral Supply Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, K. R.

    2009-12-01

    Almost all metals and many non-metallic minerals are traded internationally. An advantage of global mineral markets is that minerals can be obtained from the globally lowest-cost source. For example, one rare-earth element (REE) mine in China, Bayan Obo, is able to supply most of world demand for rare earth elements at a cost significantly less than its main competitors. Concentration of global supplies at a single mine raises significant political risks, illustrated by China’s recent decision to prohibit the export of some REEs and severely limit the export of others. The expected loss of REE supplies will have a significant impact on the cost and production of important national defense technologies and on alternative energy programs. Hybrid vehicles and wind-turbine generators, for example, require REEs for magnets and batteries. Compact fluorescent light bulbs use REE-based phosphors. These recent events raise the general issue of how to measure the degree of supply risk for internationally sourced minerals. Two factors, concentration of supply and political risk, must first be addressed. Concentration of supply can be measured with standard economic tools for measuring industry concentration, using countries rather than firms as the unit of analysis. There are many measures of political risk available. That of the OECD is a measure of a country’s commitment to rule-of-law and enforcement of contracts, as well as political stability. Combining these measures provides a comparative view of mineral supply risk across commodities and identifies several minerals other than REEs that could suddenly become less available. Combined with an assessment of the impact of a reduction in supply, decision makers can use these measures to prioritize risk reduction efforts.

  10. Atmospheric particulate mercury in the megacity Beijing: Efficiency of mitigation measures and assessment of health effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleicher, N. J.; Schäfer, J.; Chen, Y.; Blanc, G.; Chen, Y.; Chai, F.; Cen, K.; Norra, S.

    2016-01-01

    Atmospheric particulate mercury (HgP) was studied before, during, and after the Olympic Summer Games in Beijing, China, in August 2008 in order to investigate the efficiency of the emission control measures implemented by the Chinese Government. These source control measures comprised traffic reductions, increase in public transportation, planting of vegetation, establishment of parks, building freeze at construction sites, cleaner production techniques for industries and industry closures in Beijing and also in the surrounding areas. Strictest measures including the "odd-even ban" to halve the vehicle volume were enforced from the 20th of July to the 20th of September 2008. The Olympic period provided the unique opportunity to investigate the efficiency of these comprehensive actions implemented in order to reduce air pollution on a large scale. Therefore, the sampling period covered summer (August, September) and winter (December and January) samples over several years from December 2005 to September 2013. Average HgP concentrations in total suspended particulates (TSP) sampled in August 2008 were 81 ± 39 pg/m3 while TSP mass concentrations were 93 ± 49 μg/m3. This equals a reduction by about 63% for TSP mass and 65% for HgP, respectively, compared to the previous two years demonstrating the short-term success of the measures. However, after the Olympic Games, HgP concentrations increased again to pre-Olympic levels in August 2009 while values in August 2010 decreased again by 30%. Moreover, winter samples, which were 2- to 11-fold higher than corresponding August values, showed decreasing concentrations over the years indicating a long-term improvement of HgP pollution in Beijing. However, regarding adverse health effects, comparisons with soil guideline values and studies from other cities highlighted that HgP concentrations in TSP remained high in Beijing despite respective control measures. Consequently, future mitigation measures need to be tailored more specifically to further reduce HgP concentrations in Beijing.

  11. Dissolved organic carbon interferences in UV nitrate measurements and possible mitigation methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, R. G.; Foster, C. R.; Cohen, M. J.; Martin, J. B.; Delfino, J. J.

    2010-12-01

    Nitrate can be the limiting nutrient in many aquatic ecosystems and has been implicated in the degradation of surface and ground water quality. Understanding its fate and transport requires measurements at high temporal resolution in situ for extended periods of time to observe a range of natural and anthropogenic inputs. These measurements are most efficiently made by in situ sensors, preferably without chemical manipulation. The development of in situ ultraviolet spectrometers with high spectral resolution (0.8 nm) and short response time (1 s) have provided the ability to make in situ measurements of nitrate concentration by measuring its absorbance in the UV wavelengths (200nm-400nm). Like many other regions, springs in Florida have shown increasing nitrate levels in recent years. Because many spring runs in Florida ultimately enter highly colored rivers with high humic DOC content, UV nitrate analyzers cannot operate according to specifications under such light limiting conditions and can result in erroneous or even unattainable readings. Here we present an analysis of interferences caused by dissolved organic carbon (DOC) on the measured nitrate concentration by the Satlantic SUNA (Submersible Ultraviolet Nitrate Analyzer). Dissolved organic carbon absorption of UV irradiation is well documented in the literature and the results of this study clearly demonstrate that high DOC concentrations impact in situ sensor nitrate concentration measurements. Interferences caused by DOC were estimated through bench tests of natural water collected from the upper reaches of the Santa Fe River (USGS Monitoring Station 2322700) and found to have DOC concentration of approximately 50 mg/L and N03 concentration of 0.04 mg/L. The SUNA was operated in a continuous sample mode (about 1 sample per second) to measure nitrate concentrations in this water that was diluted to DOC concentrations of 2.5, 5.0, 10.0, and 12.5 mg/L DOC and nitrate concentrations of 0.05, 0.10, 0.20, 0.50, and 1.00 mg/L NO3. Each DOC dilution and standard was measured for 5 minutes. At concentrations above 10 mg/L, the error associated with the measurements was > 15%. Below that concentration the error was 5%. Analysis of the spectral data of this experiment and from the study site indicate that significant attenuation at UV wavelengths causes most of the loss of the nitrate signal and error. It is thus critical that the DOC be removed or deactivated as part of the in situ UV-based nitrate analysis. While this attenuation could be overcome by shortening the path length of the light beam, a shortened pathlength would also reduce sensitivity. To remove the DOC interference, we have constructed a UV photoreactor by winding 7 m of PTFE tubing around a quartz tube. The assembly was wrapped in reflective aluminum foil. A low-pressure UV lamp (10 Watts output, 95% emitted at the mercury resonance wavelength of 254 nm) was placed inside the quartz tube. This method should mitigate interferences caused by DOC. The extent of mitigation is currently being determined and will be described in the presentation.

  12. Relevance of Fukushima Nuclear Accident to India: Nuclear Radiation Risk and Interventions to Mitigate Adverse Fallout

    OpenAIRE

    Yadav Kapil, Varshney Neha, Aslesh OP, Karmakar MG, Pandav Chandrakant S

    2012-01-01

    The environmental radiation release from Fukushima nuclear power following tsunami in Japan has once again highlighted the omnipotent risk of radiation injury in the today’s world. India is at a real risk from radiation fallout both due to nuclear power plant accidents and nuclear warfare threat. The risk from nuclear radiation accident in India is further increased by the region being endemic for iodine deficiency as adverse effects following nuclear radiation fallout l...

  13. A Web GIS Decision Support System For Coastal Risk Assessment and Mitigation Planning

    OpenAIRE

    Bagli, Stefano

    2015-01-01

    Coastal flooding poses serious threats to coastal areas around the world, billions of dollars in damage to property and infrastructure, and threatens the lives of millions of people. Therefore, disaster management and risk assessment aims at detecting vulnerability and capacities in order to reduce coastal flood disaster risk. In particular, non-specialized researchers, emergency management personnel, and land use planners require an accurate, inexpensive method to determine and map risk asso...

  14. The asteroid and comet impact hazard: risk assessment and mitigation options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gritzner, Christian; Dürfeld, Kai; Kasper, Jan; Fasoulas, Stefanos

    2006-08-01

    The impact of extraterrestrial matter onto Earth is a continuous process. On average, some 50,000 tons of dust are delivered to our planet every year. While objects smaller than about 30 m mainly disintegrate in the Earth's atmosphere, larger ones can penetrate through it and cause damage on the ground. When an object of hundreds of meters in diameter impacts an ocean, a tsunami is created that can devastate coastal cities. Further, if a km-sized object hit the Earth it would cause a global catastrophe due to the transport of enormous amounts of dust and vapour into the atmosphere resulting in a change in the Earth's climate. This article gives an overview of the near-Earth asteroid and comet (near-Earth object-NEO) impact hazard and the NEO search programmes which are gathering important data on these objects. It also points out options for impact hazard mitigation by using deflection systems. It further discusses the critical constraints for NEO deflection strategies and systems as well as mitigation and evacuation costs and benefits. Recommendations are given for future activities to solve the NEO impact hazard problem. PMID:16670908

  15. Approving the ISDWIR method of risk measurement in making risk management decision

    OpenAIRE

    Strelnik, Mikhail

    2014-01-01

    This paper is devoted to risk management and risk measurement methods. The author considers methods of risk measurement and proposes the Inte- gral Sum of Differential Weighted Indexes of Risks (or ISDWIR) method of risk measurement. The method is based on dynamic enterprise risk matri- ces. The matrix describes the changes of corporate risk values over the time. The method assists to choose risk management decision having good effects on corporate risk values. The ISDWIR method is also compa...

  16. Policies and Measures to Realise Industrial Energy Efficiency and Mitigate Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The industrial sector is responsible for a significant share of global energy use and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Energy efficiency is commonly seen as the most cost-effective, least-polluting, and most readily-accessible industrial energy saving option available in the industrial sector worldwide. Capturing the full extent of these potential end-use energy efficiency improvements rapidly is essential if the world is to be on a path to stabilise greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations to a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. In the International Energy Agency (IEA) 450 parts per million stabilisation scenario, over a quarter of all energy efficiency gains need to come from the industrial sector by 2050, largely by changing the pattern of industrial energy use. The reduction potential estimated by IEA and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for five energy-intensive industrial sub-sectors ranges from about 10 to 40 per cent, depending upon the sector. There is significant potential to reduce, at low or no cost, the amount of energy used to manufacture most commodities. Many policies and programmes - at a national level - have already demonstrated significant improvements in industrial energy efficiency. The associate reduction in energy needs often also improves economic competitiveness as well as mitigates GHG emissions. However, at an international level, approaches such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) are not yet delivering the expected energy efficiency improvements. Existing and effective industrial energy efficiency policies and measures could be replicated at a global level. Key elements of those policies and measures include increasing facility management attention to the issue of energy efficiency; promoting the dissemination of information, practice, and tools; increasing the auditing and implementation capacity; and developing the market for industrial energy efficiency investment. Better energy efficiency can produce substantial benefits both for global economic growth and poverty reduction as well as for mitigating climate change. The paper details examples of effective industrial energy efficiency policies and programmes. It provides a list of recommended actions to accelerate the adoption of industrial energy efficiency technologies and practices. Many policies and programmes have elements which seem likely to be readily deployable, replicable and transferable. A successful post-Kyoto architecture, regardless of its specifics, should therefore enable these elements see the light of reality

  17. Option-implied measures of equity risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chang, Bo-Young; Christoffersen, Peter; Vainberg, Gregory; Jacobs, Kris

    2012-01-01

    Equity risk measured by beta is of great interest to both academics and practitioners. Existing estimates of beta use historical returns. Many studies have found option-implied volatility to be a strong predictor of future realized volatility. We find that option-implied volatility and skewness a...

  18. Power Outage, Business Continuity and Businesses' Choices of Power Outage Mitigation Measures

    OpenAIRE

    Ali Asgary; Yeganeh Mousavi-Jahromi

    2011-01-01

    Problem statement: Power outage has been mentioned as one of the most experienced and perceived risks by various types of businesses and organizations. Thus, reducing the impacts of power outage has become a key agenda in business continuity planning. Back-up or stand-by generators are among the most well known measures taken by power consumers to tackle the power outage problem. Approach: A survey was conducted to understand various aspects of power outage and the impacts...

  19. Assessment of environmental impact on air quality by cement industry and mitigating measures: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabir, G; Madugu, A I

    2010-01-01

    In this study, environmental impact on air quality was evaluated for a typical Cement Industry in Nigeria. The air pollutants in the atmosphere around the cement plant and neighbouring settlements were determined using appropriate sampling techniques. Atmospheric dust and CO2 were prevalent pollutants during the sampling period; their concentrations were recorded to be in the range of 249-3,745 mg/m3 and 2,440-2,600 mg/m3, respectively. Besides atmospheric dust and CO2, the air pollutants such as NOx, SOx and CO were in trace concentrations, below the safe limits approved by FEPA that are 0.0062-0.093 mg/m3 NOx, 0.026 mg/m3 SOx and 114.3 mg/m3 CO, respectively. Some cost-effective mitigating measures were recommended that include the utilisation of readily available and low-cost pozzolans material to produce blended cement, not only could energy efficiency be improved, but carbon dioxide emission could also be minimised during clinker production; and the installation of an advance high-pressure grinding rolls (clinker-roller-press process) to maximise energy efficiency to above what is obtainable from the traditional ball mills and to minimise CO2 emission from the power plant. PMID:19067202

  20. Agricultural non-point source pollution in China: causes and mitigation measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Bo; Zhang, Linxiu; Yang, Linzhang; Zhang, Fusuo; Norse, David; Zhu, Zhaoliang

    2012-06-01

    Non-point source (NPS) pollution has been increasingly serious in China since the 1990s. The increases of agricultural NPS pollution in China is evaluated for the period 2000-2008 by surveying the literature on water and soil pollution from fertilizers and pesticides, and assessing the surplus nitrogen balance within provinces. The main causes for NPS pollution were excessive inputs of nitrogen fertilizer and pesticides, which were partly the result of the inadequate agricultural extension services and the rapid expansion of intensive livestock production with little of waste management. The annual application of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers and pesticides in China increased by 50.7 and 119.7%, respectively, during 1991-2008. The mitigation measures to reduce NPS pollution include: correct distortion in fertilizer prices; improve incentives for the recycling of organic manure; provide farmers with better information on the sound use of agro-chemicals; and tighten the regulations and national standards on organic waste disposal and pesticides use. PMID:22311715

  1. The Potential Economic and Environmental Costs of GHG Mitigation Measures for Cattle Sectors in Northern Ireland

    OpenAIRE

    Minihan, Erin S.; Wu, Ziping

    2011-01-01

    National greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategy can benefit from information on the technical and economic viability of abatement options. The life-cycle-analysis (LCA) and marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) approaches provide a good, although partial, indication for the potential of existing technologies to mitigate GHG emissions. The input-output (IO) approach has advantages in capturing the indirect impacts of technology adoption from shifts in economic structure and linkages between s...

  2. Risk assessment and causal preventive measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lussi, Adrian; Hellwig, Elmar

    2014-01-01

    A prerequisite for preventive measures is to diagnose erosive tooth wear and to evaluate the different etiological factors in order to identify persons at risk. No diagnostic device is available for the assessment of erosive defects. Thus, they can only be detected clinically. Consequently, erosion not diagnosed at an early stage may render timely preventive measures difficult. In order to assess the risk factors, patients should record their dietary intake for a distinct period of time. Then a dentist can determine the erosive potential of the diet. A table with common beverages and foodstuffs is presented for judging the erosive potential. Particularly, patients with more than 4 dietary acid intakes have a higher risk for erosion when other risk factors are present. Regurgitation of gastric acids is a further important risk factor for the development of erosion which has to be taken into account. Based on these analyses, an individually tailored preventive program may be suggested to the patients. It may comprise dietary advice, use of calcium-enriched beverages, optimization of prophylactic regimes, stimulation of salivary flow rate, use of buffering medicaments and particular motivation for nondestructive toothbrushing habits with an erosive-protecting toothpaste as well as rinsing solutions. Since erosion and abrasion often occur simultaneously, all of the causative components must be taken into consideration when planning preventive strategies but only those important and feasible for an individual should be communicated to the patient. PMID:24993270

  3. Cultivated microalgae spills: hard to predict/easier to mitigate risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gressel, Jonathan; van der Vlugt, Ccile J B; Bergmans, Hans E N

    2014-02-01

    Cultivating algae on a large scale will inevitably lead to spills into natural ecosystems. Most risk analyses have dealt only with transgenic algae, without considering the risks of cultivating the corresponding non-transgenic wild type species. This is despite the long-studied 'paradox of the plankton', which describes the unsuitability of laboratory experimentation or modeling to predict the outcome of introducing non-native algae into a new ecosystem. Risk analyses of transgenic strains of native algae can be based on whether they are more fit or less fit than their wild type, but these are not possible with non-native species. Risks from spills can be minimized by mutagenically or transgenically deleting genes that are unnecessary in culture but obligatory in nature. PMID:24369876

  4. Dam break modelling, risk assessment and uncertainty analysis for flood mitigation:

    OpenAIRE

    Zagonjolli, M.

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis a range of modelling techniques is explored to deal effectively with flood risk management. In particular, attention is paid to floods caused by failure of hydraulic structures such as dams and dikes. The methods considered here are applied for simulating dam and dike failure events, flood water routing in downstream areas, and flood risk reduction, providing a unified framework for addressing a variety of flood related events. Numerical, statistical and constraint based method...

  5. MITIGATION OF RISKS OF MAPPING COMPLEX DATA SOURCES ON THE EXAMPLE OF SOLVENCY II PROJECT

    OpenAIRE

    Abrahamyan, Nazeli

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this diploma thesis is to describe the basic principles of Business Intelligence, its meaning in business reporting with focus on ensuring relevant information for stakeholders and consequently to identify the major risk factors in complex data mapping process of a project carried out for an insurance company Solvency II regulatory reporting. The identification of risks is based on a detailed analysis of the mapping process and its weak points. The main benefit of the thesis wi...

  6. Dam break modelling, risk assessment and uncertainty analysis for flood mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Zagonjolli, M.

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis a range of modelling techniques is explored to deal effectively with flood risk management. In particular, attention is paid to floods caused by failure of hydraulic structures such as dams and dikes. The methods considered here are applied for simulating dam and dike failure events, flood water routing in downstream areas, and flood risk reduction, providing a unified framework for addressing a variety of flood related events. Numerical, statistical and constraint based method...

  7. Development of a Meteorological Risk Map for Disaster Mitigation and Management in the Chishan Basin, Taiwan

    OpenAIRE

    Tai-Li Lee; Ching-Ho Chen; Tzu-Yi Pai; Ray-Shyan Wu

    2015-01-01

    This study involved developing a natural disaster risk assessment framework based on the consideration of three phases: a pre-disaster phase, disaster impact phase, and post-disaster recovery phase. The exposure of natural disasters exhibits unique characteristics. The interactions of numerous factors should be considered in risk assessment as well as in monitoring environment to provide natural disaster warnings. In each phase, specific factors indicate the relative status in the area subjec...

  8. The role of food chain traceability in food risk mitigation: expert and consumer outlook

    OpenAIRE

    Frewer, L.J.; Kher, S.V.

    2009-01-01

    The European Union has enforced mandatory traceability for food business operators for effective monitoring and management of risks associated with food and feed chains. The implementation of such a system needs to take account of stakeholder priorities and expectations. Expert stakeholders (such as food risk managers) and lay public may have different opinions about, and expectations from, food and ingredient traceability. The present article provides an overview of expert and lay perspectiv...

  9. An evolutionary theory of systemic risk and its mitigation for the global financial system

    OpenAIRE

    Ilin, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    This thesis is the outcome of theory development research into an identified gap in knowledge about systemic risk of the global financial system. It takes a systems-theoretic approach, incorporating a simulation-constructivist orientation towards the meaning of theory and theory development, within a realist constructivism epistemology for knowledge generation about complex social phenomena. The specific purpose of which is to describe systemic risk of failure, and explain h...

  10. Modelling of agricultural diffuse pollution and mitigation measures effectiveness in Wallonia (Belgium)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohier, C.; Deraedt, D.; Degré, A.

    2012-04-01

    Implementation of European directives in the environmental field and, specially, in the water management field, generates a request from policy-makers for news tools able to evaluate impact of management measures aiming at reducing pressures on ecosystems. In Wallonia (Southern Region of Belgium), the Nitrate Directive (EEC/676/91) was transposed into the "Walloon action plan for nitrogen sustainable management in agriculture" (PGDA1) in 2002. In 2007, a second plan was launched to reinforce some topics (PGDA2). Furthermore, the goal of "good quality" of surface waters and groundwater imposed by the Water Framework Directive poses new challenges in water management. In this context, a "soil and vadose" hydrological model is used in order to evaluate diffuse pollutions and efficiency of mitigation measures. This model, called EPICgrid, has been developed at catchment scale with an original modular concept on the basis of the field scale "water-soil-plant" EPIC model (Williams J.R., Jones C.A., Dyke P.T. (1984). A modelling approach to determining the relationship between erosion and soil productivity. Transactions of the ASAE. 27, 129-144). The model estimates, for each HRU identified into a 1km2 grid, water and nutrients flows into the plant-soil-vadose zone system (Sohier C., Degré A., Dautrebande S. (2009). From root zone modelling to regional forecasting of nitrate concentration in recharge flows - The case of the Walloon Region (Belgium). Journal of Hydrology, Volume 369, Issues 3-4, 15 May 2009, Pages 350-359). The model is used to make prospective simulations in order to evaluate the impact of measures currently performed to reduce the effect of diffuse pollution on water surface quality and groundwater quality, at regional scale. Response of the soil-vadose zone to agricultural practices modification is analyzed for the deadlines of the Water Framework Directive: 2015, 2021 and 2027, taking into account two climatic scenarios. Simulations results showed that actual measures are not sufficient in some areas and that new actions are necessary. The EPICgrid model was also used to evaluate effectiveness of further measures that could be implemented in order to reduce agricultural diffuse pollution. The increasing of catch crops in vulnerable zones has shown a limited impact in the Walloon context. The modifications of agricultural practices such as crop rotations or mineral fertilizing amounts have shown a more significant impact on water quality. Furthermore, the farmers' practices are evaluated each year by a measuring campaign of the soil nitrogen residue after harvest. These data allow us to improve the representativeness of the EPICgrid model in areas in which agricultural practices largely differs from regional statistics.

  11. Coupling hydrologic and hydraulic modelling for reliable flood risk mitigation activities in the Upper-Medium Tiber River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berni, N.; Brocca, L.; Giustarini, L.; Pandolfo, C.; Stelluti, M.; Melone, F.; Moramarco, T.

    2009-04-01

    In view of the recent and serious flood events occurred in latest years in Italy, the interest towards accurate methodology for the evaluation of flood prone areas is continually increasing. In particular, this issue is related to urbanization planning activities, civil protection actions (e.g. hydraulic risk warning systems), and the assessment of hydraulic engineering structures behaviour during severe hydrometeorological conditions. In Italy, following the publishing in the late 90's of many laws and regulations concerning hydraulic risk assessment matters, a widespread flooding areas mapping have been carried out (Italian Basin Authorities "PAI" plans). In case of limited availability of historical peak flow data, the flood prone areas estimation was based on the application of hydrologic and hydraulic modelling separately. Moreover, the recent directive 2007/60/EC on the assessment and management of flood risks requires from each member state: preliminary flood risk assessment (within December 2011), flood hazard maps and flood risk maps (within December 2013), flood risk management plans (within December 2015). In order to prevent and control flood events in medium-small river basins (e.g. Upper Tiber River basin, Central Italy), the use of hydrologic models coupled with hydraulic ones can be a valuable tool also for real time applications, such as flood risk mitigation and warning activities of the Italian National Warning System Network (composed by regional "Functional Centres" coordinated by the National Civil Protection Department). In this context, two significant flood events occurred in November 2005 and December 2008 in the Umbria Region territory were considered. In this area a hydrometeorological network, characterized by a high temporal and spatial resolution, is operating in real time. Different coupled models were considered to reproduce the selected events, in order to test and compare their reliability and efficiency. Specifically, two semi-distributed models (MISD model and HEC-HMS model) and two hydraulic models (DHI-MIKE11 and HEC-RAS) were chosen and applied in the Tiber River at Monte Molino section (5270 km2). After the calibrating procedure, the models were used to produce floodplain maps and then for the delineation of dynamic flood hazard and risk scenarios, useful for real-time risk management. The proposed calibration procedure was found to be characterized by a strong reliability due to the fact that a lot of information are available for the two chosen events. In particular, there were detailed hydrometeorological data, such as rainfall records in most of the pluviometric stations located in the basin and hydrometric levels collected in more than one point along the main channel reach. Moreover, from the local "territorial presidium" it was possible to collect non-instrumental information, such as the number and location of embankment failures and other direct observations. Lastly, for these events remote sensing observations of actual flooded areas were also available. Together with hydrometric recorded levels and computed discharges (disposing of reliable rating curves yearly controlled), these last information were extremely useful during the calibration process. Final results showed how useful this tool is for reliable flood risk mitigation activities (mapping and risk assessment as well as real time applications) especially when inundations occur.

  12. Disaster Risk Management and Measurement Indicators for Cultural Heritage in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Y. N.; Cheng, C. F.; Cheng, H. M.

    2015-08-01

    Under the influence of global climate change, the risk preparedness has become a universal issue in different research fields. In the conservation of cultural heritage, disaster risk management is becoming one of the major research topics. Besides researches on the theory and mechanism of disaster risk management, the tools for the performance of site managers to protect cultural heritage is another important issue that needs development. UNESCO and ICOMOS have released some important documents on disaster risk management including its concept, identification, evaluation, mitigation, monitoring and resilience, etc. However, there is a big gap between concept and implementation in Taiwan. Presently there are 2000 monuments in Taiwan that hardly meet the modern code. First, based on international documents released, this research presents 13 disaster indicators on monuments and their environments. Next, 345 monuments in northern Taiwan are taken as examples to evaluate their risk situations with indicators designed in 2011. Some positive recommendations were given at the same time. As a result, a comparative evaluation was completed in 2012 and some key issues are found, such as too many electrical facilities, lack of efficient firefighting equipment, and a shortage of management mechanism, just to name a few. Through the improvement of the management, some major risk can be mitigated. In 2013~14, this research took 23 national monuments from the 345 monuments to evaluate their risk situations and compare the differences between national and local monuments. Results show that almost all management mechanisms in the national monuments have been established and are running well. However, problems like inappropriate electrical facilities and insufficient monitoring equipment remain. In addition, the performance of private monuments is not as good as public ones. Based on the collected information and evaluation, this research develops safety measures of heritage conservation in two aspects. One is for researchers to measure the risk of the heritage; the other is for site managers to manage the risk of their monument with ease. In conclusion, intendants of monuments in Taiwan have to develop more disaster risk management ideas to mitigate and prevent risks. In the meantime, the management and monitoring mechanisms available are helpful tools for risk mitigation. The awareness and training of the site managers are important issues for the implementation of risk prevention.

  13. Soil bioengineering measures for disaster mitigation and environmental restoration in Central America: authochtonal cuttings suitability and economic efficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrone, A.; Preti, F.

    2009-04-01

    The use of Soil Bio-Engineering techniques in Developing countries is a relevant issue for Disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on authochtonal plants suitable for this kind of works and on economic efficiency is essential for the divulgation of this Discipline. The present paper is focused on this two issues related to the realization of various typologies of Soil Bio-engineering works in the Humid tropic of Nicaragua. In the area of Río Blanco, located in the Department of Matagalpa, Soil bio-engineering installations were built in several sites. The particular structures built were: drainages with live fascine mattress, a live palisade, a vegetated live crib wall for riverbank protection, a vegetative covering made of a metallic net and biotextile coupled with a live palisade made of bamboo. In order to evaluate the suitability of the various plants used in the works, monitorings were performed, one in the live palisade alongside an unpaved road and the other on the live crib wall along a riverbank, collecting survival rate and morphological parameters data. Concerning the economic efficiency we proceed to a financial analysis of the works and once the unit price was obtained, we converted the amount in EPP Dollars (Equal Purchasing Power) in order to compare the Nicaraguan context with the Italian one. Among the used species we found that Madero negro (Gliricidia sepium) and Roble macuelizo (Tabebuia rosea) are adequate for Soil-bioengineering measure on slopes while Helequeme (Erythrina fusca) reported a successful behaviour only in the crib wall for riverbank protection. In the comparison of the costs in Nicaragua and in Italy, the unit price reduction for the central American country ranges between 1.5 times (for the vegetative covering) and almost 4 times (for the fascine mattress) if it's used the EPP dollar exchange rate. Thus, a conclusion can be reached with regard to hydrological-risk mitigating actions performed on a basin scale and through naturalistic techniques: not only are they technically attainable, even in hardship areas (by maximizing the contribution of the local labor force and minimizing the use of mechanical equipment), but they are also economically sustainable.

  14. The severe accident mitigation concept and the design measures for core melt retention of the European Pressurized Reactor (EPR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For the mitigation of severe accidents, the European Pressurized Water Reactor (EPR) has adopted and improved the defense-in-depth approaches of its predecessors, the French 'N4' and the German 'Konvoi' plants. Beyond the corresponding evolutionary changes, the EPR includes a new, 4th level of defense-in-depth that is aimed at limiting the consequences of a postulated severe accident with core melting. It involves a strengthening of the confinement function and the avoidance of large early releases. The latter requires the prevention of scenarios and events that can result in high loads on the containment, e.g., a failure of the Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) at high internal pressure. This is achieved by dedicated design measures. The paper gives an short overview of the general concept and the strategies for: primary circuit depressurization, H2 mitigation and the avoidance of energetic Fuel Coolant Interactions (FCIs). It then describes, in detail, the conceptual solution for the stabilization and long-term cooling of the molten core. The EPR melt retention strategy supports itself on the use of an ex-vessel core catcher located in a compartment lateral to the pit. The related spatial and functional separation isolates the core catcher from the various loads during RPV failure and, at the same time, avoids risks resulting from an unintended initiation of the system during power operation. Within the core catcher, the melt will be passively flooded with water from the Internal Refueling Water Storage Tank (IRWST). Due to the effective cooling of the melt from all sides a stable state will be reached within hours and complete solidification of the melt is achieved after a few days. The core catcher can optionally be supplied by the Containment Heat Removal System (CHRS). In this active mode of operation, the water levels inside spreading compartment and reactor pit rise and the pools become subcooled, so further steaming is avoided. This results in a depressurization of the containment in the long-term

  15. Public health activities for mitigation of radiation exposures and risk communication challenges after the Fukushima nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herein we summarize the public health actions taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radiation after the Fukushima accident that occurred on 11 March 2011 in order to record valuable lessons learned for disaster preparedness. Evacuations from the radiation-affected areas and control of the distribution of various food products contributed to the reduction of external and internal radiation exposure resulting from the Fukushima incident. However, risk communication is also an important issue during the emergency response effort and subsequent phases of dealing with a nuclear disaster. To assist with their healing process, sound, reliable scientific information should continue to be disseminated to the radiation-affected communities via two-way communication. We will describe the essential public health actions following a nuclear disaster for the early, intermediate and late phases that will be useful for radiological preparedness planning in response to other nuclear or radiological disasters. (author)

  16. Debris flow risk mitigation by the means of rigid and flexible barriers experimental tests and impact analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Canelli

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The impact of a debris flow on a structure can have disastrous effects because of the enormous destructive potential of this type of phenomenon. Although the introduction of risk mitigation structures such as the Sabo Dam, the filter dam and more recently flexible barriers is usual, there are very few methods that are universally recognized for the safe design of such structures. This study presents the results of experimental tests, conducted with the use of a specifically created flume, in order to obtain detailed knowledge of the mechanical aspects, and to analyze the dynamics of the impact of a debris flow on different types of structures. The analyses of the tests, together with the calculation of the thrust caused by the flow, have made it possible to analyze the dynamics of the impact, which has shown differing effects, on the basis of the type of barrier that has been installed.

  17. Public health activities for mitigation of radiation exposures and risk communication challenges after the Fukushima nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimura, Tsutomu; Yamaguchi, Ichiro; Terada, Hiroshi; Robert Svendsen, Erik; Kunugita, Naoki

    2015-05-01

    Herein we summarize the public health actions taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radiation after the Fukushima accident that occurred on 11 March 2011 in order to record valuable lessons learned for disaster preparedness. Evacuations from the radiation-affected areas and control of the distribution of various food products contributed to the reduction of external and internal radiation exposure resulting from the Fukushima incident. However, risk communication is also an important issue during the emergency response effort and subsequent phases of dealiing with a nuclear disaster. To assist with their healing process, sound, reliable scientific information should continue to be disseminated to the radiation-affected communities via two-way communication. We will describe the essential public health actions following a nuclear disaster for the early, intermediate and late phases that will be useful for radiological preparedness planning in response to other nuclear or radiological disasters. PMID:25862700

  18. L-Band Digital Aeronautical Communications System Engineering - Initial Safety and Security Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract NNC05CA85C, Task 7: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed L-band (960 to 1164 MHz) terrestrial en route communications system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents a preliminary safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the L-band communication system after the technology is chosen and system rollout timing is determined. The security risk analysis resulted in identifying main security threats to the proposed system as well as noting additional threats recommended for a future security analysis conducted at a later stage in the system development process. The document discusses various security controls, including those suggested in the COCR Version 2.0.

  19. Joint System Prognostics For Increased Efficiency And Risk Mitigation In Advanced Nuclear Reactor Instrumentation and Control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donald D. Dudenhoeffer; Tuan Q. Tran; Ronald L. Boring; Bruce P. Hallbert

    2006-08-01

    The science of prognostics is analogous to a doctor who, based on a set of symptoms and patient tests, assesses a probable cause, the risk to the patient, and a course of action for recovery. While traditional prognostics research has focused on the aspect of hydraulic and mechanical systems and associated failures, this project will take a joint view in focusing not only on the digital I&C aspect of reliability and risk, but also on the risks associated with the human element. Model development will not only include an approximation of the control system physical degradation but also on human performance degradation. Thus the goal of the prognostic system is to evaluate control room operation; to identify and potentially take action when performance degradation reduces plant efficiency, reliability or safety.

  20. Ready for the Storm: Education for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagawa, Fumiyo; Selby, David

    2012-01-01

    Incidences of disaster and climate change impacts are rising globally. Disaster risk reduction and climate change education are two educational responses to present and anticipated increases in the severity and frequency of hazards. They share significant complementarities and potential synergies, the latter as yet largely unexploited. Three

  1. A Human Factor Analysis to Mitigate Fall Risk Factors in an Aerospace Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ware, Joylene H.

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the study done to quanitfy the risks from falls from three locations (i.e., Shuttle Landing Facility Launch Complex Payloads and Vehicle Assembly Building) at the Kennedy Space Center. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is reviewed and the mathematical model developed is detailed.

  2. Ready for the Storm: Education for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagawa, Fumiyo; Selby, David

    2012-01-01

    Incidences of disaster and climate change impacts are rising globally. Disaster risk reduction and climate change education are two educational responses to present and anticipated increases in the severity and frequency of hazards. They share significant complementarities and potential synergies, the latter as yet largely unexploited. Three…

  3. Mitigation Measures Following a Loss-of-Residual-Heat-Removal Event During Shutdown

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The transient following a loss-of-residual-heat-removal event during shutdown was analyzed to determine the containment closure time (CCT) to prevent uncontrolled release of fission products and the gravity-injection path and rate (GIPR) for effective core cooling using the RELAP5/MOD3.2 code. The plant conditions of Yonggwang Units 3 and 4, a pressurized water reactor (PWR) of 2815-MW(thermal) power in Korea, were reviewed, and possible event sequences were identified. From the CCT analysis for the five cases of typical plant configurations, it was estimated for the earliest CCT to be 40 min after the event in a case with a large cold-leg opening and emptied steam generators (SGs). However, the case with water-filled SGs significantly delayed the CCT through the heat removal to the secondary side. From the GIPR analysis for the six possible gravity-injection paths from the refueling water storage tank (RWST), the case with the injection point and opening on the other leg side was estimated to be the most suitable path to avoid core boiling. In addition, from the sensitivity study, it was evaluated for the plant to be capable of providing the core cooling for the long-term transient if nominal RWST water is available. As a result, these analysis methods and results will provide useful information in understanding the plant behavior and preparing the mitigation measures after the event, especially for Combustion Engineering-type PWR plants. However, to directly apply the analysis results to the emergency procedure for such an event, additional case studies are needed for a wide range of operating conditions such as reactor coolant inventory, RWST water temperature, and core decay heat rate

  4. Risk measures in living probabilistic safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main objectives of the study are: to define risk measures and suggested uses of them in various living PSA applications for the operational safety management and to describe specific model features required for living PSA applications. The report is based on three case studies performed within the Nordic research project Safety Evaluation by Use of Living PSA and Safety Indicators. (48 refs., 11 figs., 17 tabs.)

  5. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    OpenAIRE

    Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation seeks to better understand how uncertainty impacts a variety of economic activities and how to measure systemic risk. In the first chapter, "The effects of oil price uncertainty on the macroeconomy'' focuses on oil price uncertainty, and how it affects the global economic growth. In particular, I define oil price uncertainty as the time-varying standard deviation of one- quarter ahead forecasting error that follows stochastic volatility. Then I use a quarterly VAR with stoch...

  6. Environmental benefits and risks of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI): risk mitigation or trade-off?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Fjordbøge, Annika Sidelmann; Hartmann, Nanna Isabella Bloch; Eriksson, Eva; Baun, Anders

    2009-01-01

    nanoparticles, in part due to extensive and fundamental uncertainties. These data may provide a starting point to more thoroughly investigate the potential risks of nZVI and ultimately help scientists, engineers, and decision makers make better informed decisions regarding the use of nZVI for environmental...

  7. Modelling the impacts of climate change on muddy flooding and the effectiveness of mitigation measures in Flanders, Belgium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullan, Donal; Vandaele, Karel; Boardman, John; Favis-Mortlock, Dave

    2014-05-01

    The 'off-site' impacts of soil erosion have become a major source of concern in Europe and elsewhere during recent decades. This is due, in part, to the environmental damage and economic costs associated with 'muddy flooding.' Muddy floods occur when large volumes of runoff are generated on agricultural land, triggering the detachment and transport of sediment. This may then be deposited in neighbouring settlements. The Belgian loess belt is particularly vulnerable to muddy floods since loess-derived soils are susceptible to crusting, which decreases their infiltration rates and promotes high levels of runoff and erosion. Severe economic damages in many Flemish municipalities led to government provision of funding for voluntary mitigation measures from 2001. In the Melsterbeek catchment, where several villages have been particularly affected by severe muddy floods, mitigation measures have been implemented and their effectiveness subsequently monitored. Runoff, erosion and the occurrence of muddy floods have all considerably decreased. The scheme was cost-effective within three years. The success of these mitigation measures may diminish over the coming decades, however, as climate change poses new threats ranging from direct changes in rainfall intensity to the indirect effects of climate-driven shifts in land use. Such changes could potentially generate increased runoff over agricultural land and lead to a resurgence of muddy flooding in vulnerable areas, with severe repercussions for the effectiveness of mitigation measures. In this study, we model the impacts of climate change on muddy flooding for a hillslope in the Melsterbeek catchment where mitigation measures have been implemented, enabling us to quantify the threat which climate change poses to their effectiveness. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) was employed. Model data for present-day conditions were perturbed with future climate change parameters derived from statistical downscaling methods, and for land use change projections developed using a scenarios-based framework. Results reveal that existing mitigation measures may become compromised under a selection of future scenarios of climate and land use. Future efforts at conservation may need to become more flexible to remain effective in the changing environment of the coming decades.

  8. Environmental benefits and risks of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI): risk mitigation or trade-off?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grieger, K.; Fjordbge, A.; Hartmann, N.; Eriksson, E.; Baun, A.

    2009-12-01

    The use of nanoscaled particles in environmental remediation is gaining increasing amounts of attention in recent years, including the use of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI) for soil and groundwater remediation. The main advantages of its use include high degrees of reactivity towards a wide range of contaminants, enhanced mobility of the often coated particles, and its cost-effective in situ applications. Numerous studies have shown that compared to larger sized iron particles nZVI may have some superior properties, due to high surface areas and small sizes associated with nanoscale dimensions. While the use and further development of nZVI is understandably heralded as an environmentally-beneficial technology, the potentials risks of introducing these nanoparticles into the environment also needs to be considered. To date most research has focused on the potential benefits of nZVI and very little research has investigated its potential health and environmental risks. Nonetheless, some recent studies have documented adverse effects from its exposure including the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS), oxidative stress, bactericidal effects, DNA damage, and inflammatory responses. Moreover, field site injections often involve the use of large quantities of nZVI (10-50 g/L) which may be directly injected into groundwater flow. Combined with the pursuit of designing more mobile and reactive particles, this may potentially lead to risks related to environmental exposures of substantial concentrations. In this study, we provide a brief synopsis of the expected environmental benefits and potential risks of nZVI, particularly focusing on its environmental fate and behavior and potential role as contaminant carrier. These are some areas of primary concern for risk assessors. Furthermore, we estimate and compare the span between probable environmental concentrations from its use in the field and concentrations which have been shown to cause adverse effects in laboratory settings. This is in light of the challenges that quantitative risk assessments face for nZVI and other nanoparticles, in part due to extensive and fundamental uncertainties. These data may provide a starting point to more thoroughly investigate the potential risks of nZVI and ultimately help scientists, engineers, and decision makers make better informed decisions regarding the use of nZVI for environmental remediation.

  9. Volcanic hazard in Mexico: a comprehensive on-line database for risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manea, Marina; Constantin Manea, Vlad; Capra, Lucia; Bonasia, Rosanna

    2013-04-01

    Researchers are currently working on several key aspects of the Mexican volcanoes, such as remote sensing, field data of old and recent volcaniclastic deposits, structural framework, monitoring (rainfall data and visual observation of lahars), and laboratory experiment (analogue models and numerical simulations - fall3D, titan2D). Each investigation is focused on specific processes, but it is fundamental to visualize the global status of the volcano in order to understand its behavior and to mitigate future hazards. The Mexican Volcanoes @nline represents a novel initiative aimed to collect, on a systematic basis, the complete set of data obtained so far on the volcanoes, and to continuously update the database with new data. All the information is compiled from published works and updated frequently. Maps, such as the geological map of the Mexican volcanos and the associated hazard zonation, as well as point data, such as stratigraphic sections, sedimentology and diagrams of rainfall intensities, are presented in Google Earth format in order to be easily accessed by the scientific community and the general public. An important section of this online database is the presentation of numerical simulations results for ash dispersion associated with the principal Mexican active volcanoes. Daily prediction of ash flow dispersion (based on real-time data from CENAPRED and the Mexican Meteorological Service), as well as large-scale high-resolution subduction simulations performed on HORUS (the Computational Geodynamics Laboratory's supercomputer) represent a central part of the Mexican Volcanos @nline database. The Mexican Volcanoes @nline database is maintained by the Computational Geodynamics Laboratory and it is based entirely on Open Source software. The website can be visited at: http://www.geociencias.unam.mx/mexican_volcanoes.

  10. The nitrogen fate beyond the current nutrient mitigation measures: sustainability of an integrated agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieu, V.; Billen, G. F.; Garnier, J.; Lancelot, C.; Gypens, N.

    2010-12-01

    Located in the North-Western Europe the terrestrial continuum that includes the Seine, Somme, and Scheldt River basins offers an interesting example of a transborder territory (France, Belgium, and Netherlands) with high-intensity anthropogenic pressures. It well-illustrates the rapid development of modern agriculture in industrialised countries and the resulting severe alteration of water resources and jeopardising the capacity of rural territories to produce drinking water. The corresponding nutrient loads delivered then into the Southern Bight of the North Sea, strongly affect the ecological functioning of the coastal zone. An integrated river-ocean assessment, coupling two deterministic models - the SENEQUE RIVESTRAHLER model simulating nutrient dynamic in the drainage network and the MIRO model describing the ecological functioning coastal ecosystem - points out the relevance of current policy based measures (improvement of waste water treatment) to mitigate phosphorous emissions, while the nitrogen pollution related to agriculture will remain critical despite the implementation of classical management measure (good agricultural practices). Therefore and irrespectively of the current political agenda, a more radical alternative is established, consisting of a generalised shift to an integrated agriculture of all agricultural areas in the three basins, excluding the use of synthetically compounded fertilisers and the importation of livestock feed. Such scenario aims at evaluating whether agriculture, by essence, can conciliate (i) the demand for food and feed by local populations, (ii) a good ecological functioning of aquatic ecosystems and (iii) a balanced nutrient status for the adjacent coastal area. This scenario involves an increased livestock density in the Seine and Somme and a decrease in livestock in the Scheldt basin. It leads to a significant reduction of agricultural production that finally brings the three basins closer to autotrophy/heterotrophy equilibrium, while a persisting requirement of long-distance importation of meat and milk clearly emphasises the unsustainability of the increasing share of animal proteins in the modern human diet. In the more optimistic hypothesis, nitrate concentrations in most of the drainage network would drop below the threshold of 2.25 mgN/l (10 mgNO3/L) which is often considered a threshold for a good ecological status. The excess of nitrogen over silica (with respect to the requirements of marine diatoms) delivered into the coastal zones would be decreased by a factor from 2 to 5, thus strongly reducing, but not entirely eliminating the potential for marine eutrophication. Despite a lack a short-term realism, this alternative could appears - in the line of the adapting mosaic defined by the Millenium Ecosystem Assessement - as an end-point situation to be compared when building future nutrient reduction policies and incentive agricultural measures.

  11. Damage-reducing measures to manage flood risks in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Bubeck, Philip; Van Vliet, Mathijs; De Moel, Hans

    2014-05-01

    Damage due to floods has increased during the last few decades, and further increases are expected in several regions due to climate change and a growing vulnerability. To address the projected increase in flood risk, a combination of structural and non-structural flood risk mitigation measures is considered as a promising adaptation strategy. Such a combination takes into account that flood defence systems may fail, and prepare for unexpected crisis situations via land-use planning, building construction, evacuation and disaster response. Non-structural flood risk mitigation measures like shielding with water shutters or sand bags, building fortification or safeguarding of hazardous substances are often voluntary: they demand self-dependent action by the population at risk (Bubeck et al. 2012; 2013). It is believed that these measures are especially effective in areas with frequent flood events and low flood water levels, but some types of measures showed a significant damage-reducing effect also during extreme flood events, such as the Elbe River flood in August 2002 in Germany (Kreibich et al. 2005; 2011). Despite the growing importance of damage-reducing measures, information is still scarce about factors that motivate people to undertake such measures, the state of implementation of various non-structural measures in different countries and their damage reducing effects. Thus, we collected information and undertook an international review about this topic in the framework of the Dutch KfC project "Climate proof flood risk management". The contribution will present an overview about the available information on damage-reducing measures and draw conclusions for practical flood risk management in a changing climate. References: Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Suu, L. T. T., Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2012): Do flood risk perceptions provide useful insights for flood risk management? Findings from central Vietnam. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 5, 4, 295-302 Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Kreibich, H., Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2013) Detailed insights into the influence of flood-coping appraisals on mitigation behaviour. Global Environmental Change. DOI:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.05.009. Kreibich, H., Thieken, A. H., Petrow, T., Müller, M., Merz, B. (2005): Flood loss reduction of private households due to building precautionary measures - Lessons Learned from the Elbe flood in August 2002. NHESS, 5, 1, 117-126. Kreibich, H., Christenberger, S., Schwarze, R. (2011) Economic motivation of households to undertake private precautionary measures against floods. NHESS, 11, 2, 309-321.

  12. Teledermatology and clinical photography: safeguarding patient privacy and mitigating medico-legal risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, Paul; Finnane, Anna R; Soyer, H Peter

    2016-03-21

    Capturing clinical images is becoming more prevalent in everyday clinical practice, and dermatology lends itself to the use of clinical photographs and teledermatology. "Store-and-forward", whereby clinical images are forwarded to a specialist who later responds with an opinion on diagnosis and management is a popular form of teledermatology. Store-and-forward teledermatology has proven accurate and reliable, accelerating the process of diagnosis and treatment and improving patient outcomes. Practitioners' personal smartphones and other devices are often used to capture and communicate clinical images. Patient privacy can be placed at risk with the use of this technology. Practitioners should obtain consent for taking images, explain how they will be used, apply appropriate security in their digital communications, and delete images and other data on patients from personal devices after saving these to patient health records. Failing to use appropriate security precautions poses an emerging medico-legal risk for practitioners. PMID:26985853

  13. Middle Man Concept for In-Orbit Collision Risks Mitigation, CAESAR and CARA Examples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moury, Monique; Newman, Lauri K.; Laporte, Francois

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the conjunction analysis which has to be performed using data provided by JSpOC. This description not only demonstrates that Collision Avoidance is a 2- step process (close approach detection followed by risk evaluation for collision avoidance decision) but also leads to the conclusion that there is a need for a Middle Man role. After describing the Middle Man concept, this paper introduces two examples with their similarities and particularities: the American civil space effort delivered by the NASA CARA team (Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis) and the French response CAESAR (Conjunction Assessment and Evaluation Service: Alerts and Recommendations). For both, statistics are presented and feedbacks discussed. All together, around 80 satellites are served by CARA and/or CAESAR. Both processes regularly evolve in order either to follow JSpOC upgrades or to improve analysis according to experience acquired during the past years.

  14. Seismic Microzonation Study in Tabriz Metropolitan City for Earthquake Risk Mitigation x

    OpenAIRE

    Ebad Ghanbari; Mohammad Ali Khorram

    2016-01-01

    Azerbaijan is the site of convergent plate collisions along the Alpine-Himalayan active mountain belt. Brittle faults in the Azerbaijan area are mostly Cenozoic in or younger. The data presented demonstrate clearly that geological structures are commonly repeated at all scales from outcrop to regional. Several regional earthquakes have been strongly felt and caused damages in and around Tabriz during history. Urban seismic risk is increasing with population growth and encroachment...

  15. Prevalence and mitigation strategies of HIV/AIDS infection risks in Namibian tertiary education institutional hostels

    OpenAIRE

    Zimba, Roderick F.; Likando, Gilbert N.

    2014-01-01

    Abstract The purpose of this study was to investigate risk factors that could promote HIV infection amongst adolescents and young adults living in tertiary educational institutional hostels in Namibia. Employing structured questionnaires and focus group discussions, we sought to answer questions pertaining to factors, beliefs systems, values, traditions and sexual relations that could promote HIV infection in the student hostels. The data on these issues were gathered from 306 male and 314 fe...

  16. Mitigating the Risk of Extreme Water Scarcity and Dependency: The Case of Jordan

    OpenAIRE

    Schyns, J.F.; Hamaideh, A.; A. Y. Hoekstra; M. M. Mekonnen; M Schyns

    2015-01-01

    Jordan faces great internal water scarcity and pollution, conflict over trans-boundary waters, and strong dependency on external water resources through trade. This paper analyzes these issues and subsequently reviews options to reduce the risk of extreme water scarcity and dependency. Based on estimates of water footprint, water availability, and virtual water trade, we find that groundwater consumption is nearly double the groundwater availability, water pollution aggravates blue water scar...

  17. Mitigating the Risk of Extreme Water Scarcity and Dependency: The Case of Jordan

    OpenAIRE

    Schyns, Joep F.; Arwa Hamaideh; Hoekstra, Arjen Y; Mekonnen, Mesfin M.; Marlou Schyns

    2015-01-01

    Jordan faces great internal water scarcity and pollution, conflict over trans-boundary waters, and strong dependency on external water resources through trade. This paper analyzes these issues and subsequently reviews options to reduce the risk of extreme water scarcity and dependency. Based on estimates of water footprint, water availability, and virtual water trade, we find that groundwater consumption is nearly double the groundwater availability, water pollution aggravates blue water sca...

  18. Does mitigation save? Reviewing cost-benefit analyses of disaster risk reduction

    OpenAIRE

    Shreve, Cheney M.; Kelman, Ilan

    2015-01-01

    The benefit-cost-ratio (BCR), used in cost-benefit analysis (CBA), is an indicator that attempts to summarize the overall value for money of a project. Disaster costs continue to rise and the demand has increased to demonstrate the economic benefit of disaster risk reduction (DRR) to policy makers. This study compiles and compares original CBA case studies reporting DRR BCRs, without restrictions as to hazard type, location, scale, or other parameters. Many results were identified supporting ...

  19. Strategic Analysis and Mitigation Strategies to Address The Human Capital Related Business Risk to Teck

    OpenAIRE

    Dean Winsor

    2011-01-01

    Teck Resources, headquartered in Vancouver, is Canada’s largest diversified mining and metals company with operations in North and South America. Teck is actively exploring the globe for new opportunities. This project assesses the human capital challenges facing Teck, and the potential business risk that the shortage of human resources presents. After examining Teck’s demographic profile, growth plans and the global demand for human resources, this paper found that Teck must continue to focu...

  20. Proactive inventory policy intervention to mitigate risk within cooperative supply chains

    OpenAIRE

    Takako Kurano; Kenneth N. McKay; Black, Gary W.

    2014-01-01

    This exploratory paper will investigate the concept of supply chain risk management involving supplier monitoring within a cooperative supply chain. Inventory levels and stockouts are the key metrics. Key to this concept is the assumptions that (1) out-of-control supplier situations are causal triggers for downstream supply chain disruptions, (2) these triggers can potentially be predicted using statistical process monitoring tools, and (3) carrying excess inventory only when needed is prefer...

  1. Physiological Implications, Performance Assessment and Risk Mitigation Strategies of Women in Combat-Centric Occupations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greeves, Julie P

    2015-11-01

    Women have historically featured in military conflicts, but were not formally integrated into the military until the 20th century; occupations were mainly restricted to clerical or support roles. An increasing number of occupations have been opened to women and the higher physical demands of combat roles present new challenges. Inherent biological differences between sexes require women to work harder when undertaking the same tasks as men. This is reflected, in part, by the greater risk of musculoskeletal injuries of women observed notably during integrated military training. Gender "neutral" occupational standards, based on the physical requirements of the role, will ensure that women are suitably selected to cope with the demands of military tasks with a minimal risk of injury and to operational effectiveness. Initiatives such as reduced running mileage and single-sex training have contributed to a reduction in lower-limb musculoskeletal injuries, but the risk of injury remains higher in women. Nevertheless, women experience substantial gains in aerobic power and strength with appropriate and targeted training, narrowing the gap in physical performance between the sexes. Evidence-based occupational standards and optimal training programs provide short-term solutions for integrating women in support combat, and indeed direct combat roles. PMID:26506206

  2. Development of a Meteorological Risk Map for Disaster Mitigation and Management in the Chishan Basin, Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tai-Li Lee

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study involved developing a natural disaster risk assessment framework based on the consideration of three phases: a pre-disaster phase, disaster impact phase, and post-disaster recovery phase. The exposure of natural disasters exhibits unique characteristics. The interactions of numerous factors should be considered in risk assessment as well as in monitoring environment to provide natural disaster warnings. In each phase, specific factors indicate the relative status in the area subjected to risk assessment. Three types of natural disaster were assessed, namely debris flows, floods, and droughts. The Chishan basin in Taiwan was used as a case study and the adequacy of the relocation of Xiaolin village was evaluated. Incorporating resilience into the assessment revealed that the higher the exposure is, the higher the resilience becomes. This is because highly populated areas are typically allocated enough resources to respond to disasters. In addition, highly populated areas typically exhibit high resilience. The application of this analysis in the policy of relocation of damaged village after disaster provides valuable information for decision makers to achieve the sustainability of land use planning.

  3. Evaluation Of Risk And Possible Mitigation Schemes For Previously Unidentified Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linzey, William; McCutchan, Micah; Traskos, Michael; Gilbrech, Richard; Cherney, Robert; Slenski, George; Thomas, Walter, III

    2006-01-01

    This report presents the results of arc track testing conducted to determine if such a transfer of power to un-energized wires is possible and/or likely during an arcing event, and to evaluate an array of protection schemes that may significantly reduce the possibility of such a transfer. The results of these experiments may be useful for determining the level of protection necessary to guard against spurious voltage and current being applied to safety critical circuits. It was not the purpose of these experiments to determine the probability of the initiation of an arc track event only if an initiation did occur could it cause the undesired event: an inadvertent thruster firing. The primary wire insulation used in the Orbiter is aromatic polyimide, or Kapton , a construction known to arc track under certain conditions [3]. Previous Boeing testing has shown that arc tracks can initiate in aromatic polyimide insulated 28 volts direct current (VDC) power circuits using more realistic techniques such as chafing with an aluminum blade (simulating the corner of an avionics box or lip of a wire tray), or vibration of an aluminum plate against a wire bundle [4]. Therefore, an arc initiation technique was chosen that provided a reliable and consistent technique of starting the arc and not a realistic simulation of a scenario on the vehicle. Once an arc is initiated, the current, power and propagation characteristics of the arc depend on the power source, wire gauge and insulation type, circuit protection and series resistance rather than type of initiation. The initiation method employed for these tests was applying an oil and graphite mixture to the ends of a powered twisted pair wire. The flight configuration of the heater circuits, the fuel/oxider (or ox) wire, and the RCS jet solenoid were modeled in the test configuration so that the behavior of these components during an arcing event could be studied. To determine if coil activation would occur with various protection wire schemes, 145 tests were conducted using various fuel/ox wire alternatives (shielded and unshielded) and/or different combinations of polytetrafuloroethylene (PTFE), Mystik tape and convoluted wraps to prevent unwanted coil activation. Test results were evaluated along with other pertinent data and information to develop a mitigation strategy for an inadvertent RCS firing. The SSP evaluated civilian aircraft wiring failures to search for aging trends in assessing the wire-short hazard. Appendix 2 applies Weibull statistical methods to the same data with a similar purpose.

  4. Final Report for the ZERT Project: Basic Science of Retention Issues, Risk Assessment & Measurement, Monitoring and Verification for Geologic Sequestration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spangler, Lee; Cunningham, Alfred; Lageson, David; Melick, Jesse; Gardner, Mike; Dobeck, Laura; Repasky, Kevin; Shaw, Joseph; Bajura, Richard; McGrail, B Peter; Oldenburg, Curtis M; Wagoner, Jeff; Pawar, Rajesh

    2011-03-31

    ZERT has made major contributions to five main areas of sequestration science: improvement of computational tools; measurement and monitoring techniques to verify storage and track migration of CO{sub 2}; development of a comprehensive performance and risk assessment framework; fundamental geophysical, geochemical and hydrological investigations of CO{sub 2} storage; and investigate innovative, bio-based mitigation strategies.

  5. Residents in a high radon potential geographic area: Their risk perception and attitude toward testing and mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boone County, Indiana was identified by the EPA as one of the high radon potential geographic areas. Health education campaigns are needed to prevent resident's unnecessary radon exposure. In order to design suitable programs, a questionnaire mail survey was conducted to measure socio-demographic characteristics of County resident's knowledge about radon, attitude toward radon testing and mitigation, support of education campaigns, and the best media to deliver radon education campaigns. A stratified random sampling method was applied for a total of 400 samples. The number of samples from each township/city was a proportion of their taxable parcels. The survey return rate was 39.8%. The data were analyzed by Epi Info and SPSS. The statistical significant level was set at ? = 0.05. The results showed that resident's knowledge about radon was at a relatively superficial level. There was no association identified between the knowledge of radon and gender, age, family income, or education, except that females more frequently believed in false effects caused by radon. A significant correlation between radon knowledge and home radon tests was observed. Also found in this study was that respondents with better knowledge about diseases caused by radon had more confidence in radon mitigation actions. Newspaper was chosen by respondents as the most favorite media to deliver radon health education campaigns. Health education campaigns for the residents of Boone County might be conducted by local governments and/or other organizations

  6. Downgrading Complexity in the Exxon Valdez Crisis: Using Information as a Risk Mitigation Tool in Complex Adaptive Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Snow

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available

     

    In a high-stakes crisis environment, trial and error can be too costly an approach. The Exxon Valdez oil spill provides an example of how complex adaptive systems can have simple, preventable problems and complex, unpredictable problems can come together with disastrous consequences. Not every possible contingency can be accounted for. However, research and experience can be applied to mitigate these types of risks by using information to reduce or "downgrade" the complexity of the contributing situations. The Cynefin contexts of complexity can be used to assess problems when they arise. Downgrading the level of complexity for a given problem can turn formerly complex or complicated situations into simple ones that require less knowledge and resources to resolve and can reduce the risk of failure. The possibility and consequences of failure may remain, but downgraded complexity can reduce the likelihood of this failure and make problems more manageable when they do occur.

  7. An empirical analysis of controlled risk and investment performance using risk measures: a study of risk controlled environment

    OpenAIRE

    Haidar, Haidar

    2014-01-01

    In this thesis, I study the performance behaviour of hedge funds and mutual funds. I study a basket of various risk statistics that are widely used to measure the fluctuation of asset prices. Those risk statistics are used to rank the performance of the assets. The linear dependence relation of these risk measures in ranking assets is investigated and the set of risk measures is reduced by excluding risk measures that produce linearly dependent ranking vectors to other risk mea...

  8. Climate change effects on mitigation measures: The case of extreme wind events and Philippines’ biofuel plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biofuel production has increased dramatically over the past decade, among other to mitigate climate change. However, climate change vulnerability may currently not be sufficiently accounted for in national biofuel strategies, hence neglecting a possible link between mitigation and adaptation to climate change. To the best of our knowledge this potential link has received very little attention in the literature. One example is the Philippines, which is currently implementing an ambitious program of biofuel production. Its aim is to reduce dependency on imported fuel, increase rural employment and incomes, and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. The Philippines is frequently battered by tropical typhoons and from 1975 to 2002 the annual average damage to agriculture was 3.047 billion pesos. We calculate wind damage on biofuel feedstock production, and assess the effect that a future potential increase in tropical cyclone intensity would have on energy security, rural development and climate change mitigation in the Philippines. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to obtain the future expected development of typhoon impacts. Based on the Philippines legislated target of 10% biodiesel blend in gasoline by 2011, simulation of the affected area for each feedstock, and expected biofuel feedstock damage is computed for the Philippine's 80 provinces in 2050, for two different typhoon climate change scenarios. Additional indirect economic effects are assessed in a tentative way. The results suggest a modest decrease in biofuel feedstock productivity at the national level, but with strong local differences that are shown to affect the Philippine's policy goals. In a broader perspective the paper accentuates a so far little described link between climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation. This link may merit further attention by policy makers and development planners in order to ensure that policies are economically sound not only in the short but also medium term.

  9. Mitigating the risk of opioid abuse through a balanced undergraduate pain medicine curriculum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morley-Forster, Patricia K; Pergolizzi, Joseph V; Taylor, Robert; Axford-Gatley, Robert A; Sellers, Edward M

    2013-01-01

    Chronic pain is highly prevalent in the United States and Canada, occurring in an estimated 30% of the adult population. Despite its high prevalence, US and Canadian medical schools provide very little training in pain management, including training in the safe and effective use of potent analgesics, most notably opioids. In 2005, the International Association for the Study of Pain published recommendations for a core undergraduate pain management curriculum, and several universities have implemented pilot programs based on this curriculum. However, when outcomes have been formally assessed, these initiatives have resulted in only modest improvements in physician knowledge about chronic pain and its treatment. This article discusses strategies to improve undergraduate pain management curricula and proposes areas in which those efforts can be augmented. Emphasis is placed on opioids, which have great potency as analgesics but also substantial risks in terms of adverse events and the risk of abuse and addiction. The authors conclude that the most important element of an undergraduate pain curriculum is clinical experience under mentors who are capable of reinforcing didactic learning by modeling best practices. PMID:24353438

  10. Choosing Organic Pesticides over Synthetic Pesticides May Not Effectively Mitigate Environmental Risk in Soybeans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahlai, Christine A.; Xue, Yingen; McCreary, Cara M.; Schaafsma, Arthur W.; Hallett, Rebecca H.

    2010-01-01

    Background Selection of pesticides with small ecological footprints is a key factor in developing sustainable agricultural systems. Policy guiding the selection of pesticides often emphasizes natural products and organic-certified pesticides to increase sustainability, because of the prevailing public opinion that natural products are uniformly safer, and thus more environmentally friendly, than synthetic chemicals. Methodology/Principal Findings We report the results of a study examining the environmental impact of several new synthetic and certified organic insecticides under consideration as reduced-risk insecticides for soybean aphid (Aphis glycines) control, using established and novel methodologies to directly quantify pesticide impact in terms of biocontrol services. We found that in addition to reduced efficacy against aphids compared to novel synthetic insecticides, organic approved insecticides had a similar or even greater negative impact on several natural enemy species in lab studies, were more detrimental to biological control organisms in field experiments, and had higher Environmental Impact Quotients at field use rates. Conclusions/Significance These data bring into caution the widely held assumption that organic pesticides are more environmentally benign than synthetic ones. All pesticides must be evaluated using an empirically-based risk assessment, because generalizations based on chemical origin do not hold true in all cases. PMID:20582315

  11. Evaluation of possible mitigation measures to prevent introduction and spread of African swine fever virus through wild boar

    OpenAIRE

    European Food Safety Authority

    2014-01-01

    This scientific report has been prepared in response to a request for urgent scientific and technical assistance under Art 31 of Regulation (EC) No 178/2002, in relation to possible mitigation measures to prevent introduction and spread of African swine fever virus (ASFV). It was requested to assess the feasibility to drastically reduce the wild boar population by hunting or by the use of traps, and to assess if prevention of movement of wild boars by feeding or by artificial physical barrier...

  12. Calibration and Multipath Mitigation for Increased Accuracy of Time-of-Flight Camera Measurements in Robotic Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Fuchs, Stefan

    2012-01-01

    Die unter dem Titel "Calibration and Multipath Mitigation for Increased Accura- cy of Time-of-Flight Camera Measurements in Robotic Applications - Erhöhung der Messgenauigkeit von Time-of-Flight-Kameras in der Robotik mittels Kalibrierung und Kompensation von Mehrwegreflexionen" in englischer Sprache verfasste Dissertation diskutiert die systematischen Messfehler einer Time-of-Flight-(ToF)-Kamera und stellt zwei Ansätze zur Kompensation dieser Fehler vor. ToF-Kameras sind aktive, bildgebende ...

  13. The instability of downside risk measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We study the feasibility and noise sensitivity of portfolio optimization under some downside risk measures (value-at-risk, expected shortfall, and semivariance) when they are estimated by fitting a parametric distribution on a finite sample of asset returns. We find that the existence of the optimum is a probabilistic issue, depending on the particular random sample, in all three cases. At a critical combination of the parameters of these problems we find an algorithmic phase transition, separating the phase where the optimization is feasible from the one where it is not. This transition is similar to the one discovered earlier for expected shortfall based on historical time series. We employ the replica method to compute the phase diagram, as well as to obtain the critical exponent of the estimation error that diverges at the critical point. The analytical results are corroborated by Monte Carlo simulations

  14. Aircrew radiation exposure: sources-risks-measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A short review is given on the actual aircrew exposure and its sources. The resulting risks for harmful effects to the health and discuss methods for in-flight measurements of exposure is evaluated. An idea for a fairly simple and economic approach to a practical, airborne active dosimeter for the assessment of individual crew exposure is presented. The exposure of civil aircrew to cosmic radiation, should not be considered a tremendous risk to the health, there is no reason for panic. However, being significantly higher than the average exposure to radiation workers, it can certainly not be neglected. As recommended by ICRP, aircrew exposure has to be considered occupational radiation exposure and aircrews are certainly entitled to the same degree of protection, as other ground-based radiation workers have obtained by law, since long time. (author)

  15. Risk Measurement, Risk Management and Capital Adequacy in Financial Conglomerates

    OpenAIRE

    Andrew Kuritzkes; Til Schuermann; Scott M. Weiner

    2002-01-01

    Is there something special, with respect to risk and capital, about a financial conglomerate that combines banking, insurance and potentially other financial and non-financial activities? To what degree is the risk of the whole less than the sum of its parts? This paper seeks to address these questions by evaluating the risk profile of a typical banking-insurance conglomerate, highlighting the key analytical issues relating to risk aggregation, and raising policy considerations. Risk aggregat...

  16. Solvency capital, risk measures and comonotonicity: a review

    OpenAIRE

    Dhaene, Jan; Vanduffel, Steven; Tang, Q; Goovaerts, Marc; Kaas, R.; Vyncke, David

    2004-01-01

    In this paper we examine and summarize properties of several well-known risk measures that can be used in the framework of setting solvency capital requirements for a risky business. Special attention is given to the class of (concave) distortion risk measures. We investigate the relationship between these risk measures and theories of choice under risk. Furthermore we consider the problem of how to evaluate risk measures for sums of non-independent random variables. Approximations for such s...

  17. Controls Mitigating the Risk of Confidential Information Disclosure by Facebook: Essential Concern in Auditing Information Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Ognyanov Kuyumdzhiev

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Facebook allows people to easily share information about themselves which in some cases could be classified as confidential or sensitive in the organisation they’re working for. In this paper we discuss the type of data stored by Facebook and the scope of the terms “confidential” and “sensitive data”. The intersection of these areas shows that there is high possibility for confidential data disclosure in organisations with none or ineffective security policy. This paper proposes a strategy for managing the risks of information leakage. We define five levels of controls against posting non-public data on Facebook - security policy, applications installed on employees’ workstations, specific router software or firmware, software in the cloud, Facebook itself. Advantages and disadvantages of every level are evaluated. As a result we propose developing of new control integrated in the social media.

  18. Risky business. Fossil risk mitigation and enhanced energy security from renewables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is argued that the cost estimates associated with the development and diversification of energy policies may be flawed. The document points out that renewables such as wind can be used as a hedge against risk in a balanced portfolio. The calculation of future generating costs is a crucial factor to be taken into account but the figures for the future are highly uncertain. It is argued that traditional electricity costs, in terms of kWh, are unreliable and should be given little weight in energy policy deliberations. It is suggested that investor groups should be asked to submit firm fixed-price bids for providing wind, coal and gas-base electricity over the next 25-30 years. Wind and other fixed-cost energy sources can help nations avoid costly economic consequences stemming from fluctuation in the price of oil

  19. Surface, sub-surface mapping, geohazard identification and associated risk mitigation for pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mitchell, Todd [Fugro SESL Geomatics Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada); Hitchcock, Chris [Fugro William Lettis and Associates, Walnut Creek, California (United States); Amine, Dima [Fugro Airborne Surveys, Mississauga, Ontario (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    In the oil and gas sector, there is a constant need to build new lines as well as to upgrade existing ones in order to keep up with the growing demand. In the design, construction and maintenance phases of a pipeline project, capture and analysis of remote sensing data can be very useful for achieving improved efficiencies and cost savings. The purpose of this paper is to present how various tools can provide significant logistical information. Different remote sensing collection techniques such as LiDAR, topographical mapping, subsurface electromagnetic and magnetic sensing datasets are available to professionals. These practical tools can be used for evaluation of geohazards, landslide and fault avoidance, and determining alternate routing options and construction feasibility. This study provides an overview of which techniques are appropriate for each geohazard and highlights that risk planning can be considerably reduced with efficient determination of ground conditions through the use of these techniques.

  20. HOW TO MITIGATE THE RISKS OF MANAGING ONLINE ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS BY TRAINING WITH SIMBOUND SIMULATION GAME

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louis Doru Havriliuc

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to describe how a digital marketing simulation system improve the knowledge and skills of students, as well as their status as members of a virtual community, which gradually evolve from novice to expert in managing online advertising campaigns. The body of the article encompasses three contributions: the know-how of the Simbound Game author, the practical experiences of an instructor, who coordinated students’ activities during three courses and of a Master student – the leader of a team which got the first position after the completion of a game. The advantages of managing no-risk online advertising campaigns are revealed and the students are able to understand how various online marketing tools become useful while a firm expands its operations in e-commerce and must fulfill new tasks and responsibilities. The paper concludes with the practical implications of the Simbound simulation-based learning and the ideas included in the future research agenda.

  1. Analysis Methodologies and Ameliorative Techniques for Mitigation of the Risk in Churches with Drum Domes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present work fits into the interesting theme of seismic prevention for protection of the monumental patrimony made up of churches with drum domes. Specifically, with respect to a church in the historic area of Catania, chosen as a monument exemplifying the typology examined, the seismic behavior is analyzed in the linear field using modern dynamic identification techniques. The dynamically identified computational model arrived at made it possible to identify the macro-element most at risk, the dome-drum system. With respect to this system the behavior in the nonlinear field is analyzed through dynamic tests on large-scale models in the presence of various types of improving reinforcement. The results are used to appraise the ameliorative contribution afforded by each of them and to choose the most suitable type of reinforcement, optimizing the stiffness/ductility ratio of the system

  2. Mitigating the risk of opioid abuse through a balanced undergraduate pain medicine curriculum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morley-Forster PK

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Patricia K Morley-Forster,1,2 Joseph V Pergolizzi,3–5 Robert Taylor Jr,5 Robert A Axford-Gatley,6 Edward M Sellers71Department of Anesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada; 2Outpatient Pain Clinic, St Joseph’s Hospital, London, ON, Canada; 3Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA; 4Department of Pharmacology, Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA, USA; 5NEMA Research Inc, Naples, FL, USA; 6Clinical Content and Editorial Services, Complete Healthcare Communications, Inc, Chadds Ford, PA, USA; 7DL Global Partners Inc, Toronto, ON, CanadaAbstract: Chronic pain is highly prevalent in the United States and Canada, occurring in an estimated 30% of the adult population. Despite its high prevalence, US and Canadian medical schools provide very little training in pain management, including training in the safe and effective use of potent analgesics, most notably opioids. In 2005, the International Association for the Study of Pain published recommendations for a core undergraduate pain management curriculum, and several universities have implemented pilot programs based on this curriculum. However, when outcomes have been formally assessed, these initiatives have resulted in only modest improvements in physician knowledge about chronic pain and its treatment. This article discusses strategies to improve undergraduate pain management curricula and proposes areas in which those efforts can be augmented. Emphasis is placed on opioids, which have great potency as analgesics but also substantial risks in terms of adverse events and the risk of abuse and addiction. The authors conclude that the most important element of an undergraduate pain curriculum is clinical experience under mentors who are capable of reinforcing didactic learning by modeling best practices.Keywords: chronic pain, curricular content, medical education, opioids, pain education, pain knowledge, physician training, teaching

  3. Full-Scaled Advanced Systems Testbed: Ensuring Success of Adaptive Control Research Through Project Lifecycle Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlock, Kate M.

    2011-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Dryden Flight Research Center completed flight testing of adaptive controls research on the Full-Scale Advance Systems Testbed (FAST) in January of 2011. The research addressed technical challenges involved with reducing risk in an increasingly complex and dynamic national airspace. Specific challenges lie with the development of validated, multidisciplinary, integrated aircraft control design tools and techniques to enable safe flight in the presence of adverse conditions such as structural damage, control surface failures, or aerodynamic upsets. The testbed is an F-18 aircraft serving as a full-scale vehicle to test and validate adaptive flight control research and lends a significant confidence to the development, maturation, and acceptance process of incorporating adaptive control laws into follow-on research and the operational environment. The experimental systems integrated into FAST were designed to allow for flexible yet safe flight test evaluation and validation of modern adaptive control technologies and revolve around two major hardware upgrades: the modification of Production Support Flight Control Computers (PSFCC) and integration of two, fourth-generation Airborne Research Test Systems (ARTS). Post-hardware integration verification and validation provided the foundation for safe flight test of Nonlinear Dynamic Inversion and Model Reference Aircraft Control adaptive control law experiments. To ensure success of flight in terms of cost, schedule, and test results, emphasis on risk management was incorporated into early stages of design and flight test planning and continued through the execution of each flight test mission. Specific consideration was made to incorporate safety features within the hardware and software to alleviate user demands as well as into test processes and training to reduce human factor impacts to safe and successful flight test. This paper describes the research configuration, experiment functionality, overall risk mitigation, flight test approach and results, and lessons learned of adaptive controls research of the Full-Scale Advanced Systems Testbed.

  4. Volcano Hazard Tracking and Disaster Risk Mitigation: A Detailed Gap Analysis from Data-Collection to User Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faied, D.; Sanchez, A.

    2009-04-01

    Volcano Hazard Tracking and Disaster Risk Mitigation: A Detailed Gap Analysis from Data-Collection to User Implementation Dohy Faied, Aurora Sanchez (on behalf of SSP08 VAPOR Project Team) Dohy.Faied@masters.isunet.edu While numerous global initiatives exist to address the potential hazards posed by volcanic eruption events and assess impacts from a civil security viewpoint, there does not yet exist a single, unified, international system of early warning and hazard tracking for eruptions. Numerous gaps exist in the risk reduction cycle, from data collection, to data processing, and finally dissemination of salient information to relevant parties. As part of the 2008 International Space University's Space Studies Program, a detailed gap analysis of the state of volcano disaster risk reduction was undertaken, and this paper presents the principal results. This gap analysis considered current sensor technologies, data processing algorithms, and utilization of data products by various international organizations. Recommendations for strategies to minimize or eliminate certain gaps are also provided. In the effort to address the gaps, a framework evolved at system level. This framework, known as VIDA, is a tool to develop user requirements for civil security in hazardous contexts, and a candidate system concept for a detailed design phase. VIDA also offers substantial educational potential: the framework includes a centralized clearinghouse for volcanology data which could support education at a variety of levels. Basic geophysical data, satellite maps, and raw sensor data are combined and accessible in a way that allows the relationships between these data types to be explored and used in a training environment. Such a resource naturally lends itself to research efforts in the subject but also research in operational tools, system architecture, and human/machine interaction in civil protection or emergency scenarios.

  5. Risk constraint measures developed for the outcome-based strategy for tank waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report is one of a series of supporting documents for the outcome-based characterization strategy developed by PNNL. This report presents a set of proposed risk measures with risk constraint (acceptance) levels for use in the Value of Information process used in the NCS. The characterization strategy has developed a risk-based Value of Information (VOI) approach for comparing the cost-effectiveness of characterizing versus mitigating particular waste tanks or tank clusters. The preference between characterizing or mitigating in order to prevent an accident depends on the cost of those activities relative to the cost of the consequences of the accident. The consequences are defined as adverse impacts measured across a broad set of risk categories such as worker dose, public cancers, ecological harm, and sociocultural impacts. Within each risk measure, various open-quotes constraint levelsclose quotes have been identified that reflect regulatory standards or conventionally negotiated thresholds of harm to Hanford resources and values. The cost of consequences includes the open-quotes costs close-quote of exceeding those constraint levels as well as a strictly linear costing per unit of impact within each of the risk measures. In actual application, VOI based-decision making is an iterative process, with a preliminary low-precision screen of potential technical options against the major risk constraints, followed by VOI analysis to determine the cost-effectiveness of gathering additional information and to select a preferred technical option, and finally a posterior screen to determine whether the preferred option meets all relevant risk constraints and acceptability criteria

  6. 78 FR 30313 - Standardizing and Evaluating Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies; Notice of Public Meeting...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-22

    ..._Standardization@fda.hhs.gov . I. Background This meeting builds upon prior stakeholder feedback on and input into.... This meeting also builds on FDA's internal efforts to improve the design, implementation and assessment... measuring the effectiveness of REMS and evaluating, with stakeholder input, appropriate ways to...

  7. Improving cost-effectiveness and mitigating risks of renewable energy requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, James P.

    Policy makers at the federal and state levels of government are debating actions to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on oil as an energy source. Several concerns drive this debate: sharp rises in energy prices, increasing unease about the risks of climate change, energy security, and interest in expanding the domestic renewable energy industry. Renewable energy requirements are frequently proposed to address these concerns, and are currently in place, in various forms, at the federal and state levels of government. These policies specify that a certain portion of the energy supply come from renewable energy sources. This dissertation focuses on a specific proposal, known as 25 X 25, which requires 25% of electricity and motor vehicle transportation fuels supplied to U.S. consumers to come from renewable energy sources, such as wind power and ethanol, by 2025. This dissertation builds on prior energy policy analysis, and more specifically analyses of renewable energy requirements, by assessing the social welfare implications of a 25 x 25 policy and applying new methods of uncertainty analysis to multiple policy options decision makers can use to implement the policy. These methods identify policy options that can improve the cost-effectiveness and reduce the risks of renewable energy requirements. While the dissertation focuses on a specific policy, the research methods and findings are applicable to other renewable energy requirement policies. In the dissertation, I analyze six strategies for implementing a 25 x 25 policy across several hundred scenarios that represent plausible futures for uncertainties in energy markets, such as renewable energy costs, energy demand, and fossil fuel prices. The strategies vary in the availability of resources that qualify towards the policy requirement and the use of a "safety valve" that allows refiners and utilities to pay a constant fee after renewable energy costs reach a predetermined threshold. I test each strategy across the set of scenarios and conclude that an "all-combined" strategy---one that allows greater corn ethanol production and energy efficiency to qualify towards the requirement and includes a safety valve---is the most robust strategy to address future uncertainties in energy markets.

  8. Construction and measurements of an improved vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto detector surfaces, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology. An improved vacuum-swing-adsorption radon mitigation system and cleanroom build upon a previous design implemented at Syracuse University that achieved radon levels of ∼0.2 Bq m−3. This improved system will employ a better pump and larger carbon beds feeding a redesigned cleanroom with an internal HVAC unit and aged water for humidification. With the rebuilt (original) radon mitigation system, the new low-radon cleanroom has already achieved a > 300× reduction from an input activity of 58.6 ± 0.7 Bq m−3 to a cleanroom activity of 0.13 ± 0.06 Bq m−3

  9. Construction and Measurements of an Improved Vacuum-Swing-Adsorption Radon-Mitigation System

    CERN Document Server

    Street, J; Dunagan, C; Loose, X; Schnee, R W; Stark, M; Sundarnath, K; Tronstad, D

    2015-01-01

    In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto detector surfaces, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology. An improved vacuum-swing-adsorption radon mitigation system and cleanroom build upon a previous design implemented at Syracuse University that achieved radon levels of $\\sim$0.2$\\,$Bq$\\,$m$^{-3}$. This improved system will employ a better pump and larger carbon beds feeding a redesigned cleanroom with an internal HVAC unit and aged water for humidification. With the rebuilt (original) radon mitigation system, the new low-radon cleanroom has already achieved a $>$$\\,$300$\\times$ reduction from an input activity of $58.6\\pm0.7$$\\,$Bq$\\,$m$^{-3}$ to a cleanroom activity of $0.13\\pm0.06$$\\,$Bq$\\,$m$^{-3}$.

  10. Construction and measurements of an improved vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Street, J.; Bunker, R.; Dunagan, C.; Loose, X.; Schnee, R. W.; Stark, M.; Sundarnath, K.; Tronstad, D.

    2015-08-01

    In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto detector surfaces, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology. An improved vacuum-swing-adsorption radon mitigation system and cleanroom build upon a previous design implemented at Syracuse University that achieved radon levels of ˜0.2 Bq m-3. This improved system will employ a better pump and larger carbon beds feeding a redesigned cleanroom with an internal HVAC unit and aged water for humidification. With the rebuilt (original) radon mitigation system, the new low-radon cleanroom has already achieved a > 300× reduction from an input activity of 58.6 ± 0.7 Bq m-3 to a cleanroom activity of 0.13 ± 0.06 Bq m-3.

  11. Proactive inventory policy intervention to mitigate risk within cooperative supply chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takako Kurano

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This exploratory paper will investigate the concept of supply chain risk management involving supplier monitoring within a cooperative supply chain. Inventory levels and stockouts are the key metrics. Key to this concept is the assumptions that (1 out-of-control supplier situations are causal triggers for downstream supply chain disruptions, (2 these triggers can potentially be predicted using statistical process monitoring tools, and (3 carrying excess inventory only when needed is preferable as opposed to carrying excess inventory on a continual basis. Simulation experimentation will be used to explore several supplier monitoring strategies based on statistical runs tests, specifically "runs up and down" and/or "runs above and below" tests. The sensitivity of these tests in detecting non-random supplier behavior will be explored and their performance will be investigated relative to stock-outs and inventory levels. Finally, the effects of production capacity and yield rate will be examined. Results indicate out-of-control supplier signals can be detected beforehand and stock-outs can be significantly reduced by dynamically adjusting inventory levels. The largest benefit occurs when both runs tests are used together and when the supplier has sufficient production capacity to respond to downstream demand (i.e., safety stock increases. When supplier capacity is limited, the highest benefit is achieved when yield rates are high and, thus, yield loss does not increase supplier production requirements beyond its available capacity.

  12. Mitigating Climate Change with Ocean Pipes: Influencing Land Temperature and Hydrology and Termination Overshoot Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwiatkowski, L.; Caldeira, K.; Ricke, K.

    2014-12-01

    With increasing risk of dangerous climate change geoengineering solutions to Earth's climate problems have attracted much attention. One proposed geoengineering approach considers the use of ocean pipes as a means to increase ocean carbon uptake and the storage of thermal energy in the deep ocean. We use a latest generation Earth System Model (ESM) to perform simulations of idealised extreme implementations of ocean pipes. In our simulations, downward transport of thermal energy by ocean pipes strongly cools the near surface atmosphere - by up to 11C on a global mean. The ocean pipes cause net thermal energy to be transported from the terrestrial environment to the deep ocean while increasing the global net transport of water to land. By cooling the ocean surface more than the land, ocean pipes tend to promote a monsoonal-type circulation, resulting in increased water vapour transport to land. Throughout their implementation, ocean pipes prevent energy from escaping to space, increasing the amount of energy stored in Earth's climate system despite reductions in surface temperature. As a consequence, our results indicate that an abrupt termination of ocean pipes could cause dramatic increases in surface temperatures beyond that which would have been obtained had ocean pipes not been implemented.

  13. Mitigating Reputational Risks - A Proposal With A Knowledge-Based Stakeholder Information Leitstand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Stöβlein

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The Internet plays a crucial role in the communication strategy of organizations. However, information is often distributed at the "wrong" time and does not always satisfy the particular requirements of key customers, suppliers, governments, shareholders or financial analysts. Serious mistakes might not only create negative sequela, for example, stakeholders remain unsatisfied, downgrade their opinions about products and companies, and subsequently make 'wrong' decisions. Such mistakes could also have tremendous effects on the primary objectives of an enterprise, e.g., the reputation suffers and subsequently the share price plunges. In this paper, we present how companies can take advantage of actively providing targeted information with a knowledge-based Stakeholder Information Leitstand (information planning and control center. It helps executives stabilize relationships with key customers, journalists, politicians, investors, and assists in promoting trust and enhancing reputation, especially in times of risk situations. We focus on the design phase of the system, and propose that current decision support systems could be enriched with "business content", i.e. predefined situation-oriented and individualized information categories and messages.

  14. Alkali Silicate Glass Coatings for Mitigating the Risks of Tin Whiskers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hillman, Dave; Wilcoxon, Ross; Lower, Nate; Grossman, Dan

    2015-12-01

    Alkali silicate glass (ASG) coatings were investigated as a possible method for inhibiting tin whisker initiation and growth. The aqueous-based ASG formulations used in this study were deposited with equipment and conditions that are typical of those used to apply conventional conformal coatings. Processes for controlling ASG coating properties were developed, and a number of ASG-based coating combinations were applied to test components with pure tin surfaces. Coatings were applied both in a laboratory environment at Rockwell Collins and in a manufacturing environment at Plasma Ruggedized Solutions. Testing in elevated humidity/temperature environments and subsequent inspection of the test articles identified coating combinations that inhibited tin whisker growth as well as other material combinations that actually accelerated tin whisker growth. None of the coatings evaluated in this study, including conventional acrylic and Parylene conformal coatings, completely prevented the formation of tin whiskers. Two of the coatings were particularly effective at reducing the risks of whisker growth, albeit through different mechanisms. Parylene conformal coating almost, but not completely, eliminated whisker formation, and only a few tin whiskers were found on these surfaces during the study. A composite of ASG and alumina nanoparticles inhibited whisker formation to a lesser degree than Parylene, but did disrupt whisker growth mechanisms so as to inhibit the formation of long, and more dangerous, tin whiskers. Additional testing also demonstrated that the conformal coatings had relatively little effect on the dielectric loss of a stripline test structure operating at frequencies over 30 GHz.

  15. Non-Line of Sight Mitigation using a Measurement and Positioning Filtering Algorithm

    OpenAIRE

    Gonzalez-Hernandez, Juan; Bleakley, Chris J.

    2008-01-01

    In recent years, research interest in location systems has increased due to the emergence of mobile computing devices and the promise of Ubiquitous Computing. This paper considers the problem arising in ultrasonic location systems of Non-Line of Sight (NLOS) between Base Stations and Mobile Devices, which can give significant location errors. Herein, a Dual Kalman Filtering method is proposed to mitigate NLOS effects, using an a-priori partial knowledge of the ultrasonic signals. The main adv...

  16. Accident mitigation measures for WWER-440 reactors in the case of chosen severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper discusses the most important features distinguishing WWER-440 type V-213 reactors from PWRs built in western countries and requiring special approach in accident mitigation with emphasis on beyond-design basis accidents. Hydrogen threat in failed bubbler-condenser containments, containment venting possibilities, flooding reactor shaft cavity, possible large break of reactor cooling system collector and intentional depressurization of reactor cooling system are reviewed. 20 figs

  17. Analysis of mitigating measures during steam/hydrogen distributions in nuclear reactor containments with the 3D field code gasflow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper reports on the recent model additions to the 3D field code GASFLOW and on validation and application analyses for steam/hydrogen transport with inclusion of mitigation measures. The results of the 3D field simulation of the HDR test E11.2 are summarized. Results from scoping analyses that simulate different modes of CO2 inertization for conditions from the HDR test T31.5 are presented. The last part discusses different ways of recombiner modeling during 3D distribution simulations and gives the results from validation calculations for the HDR recombiner test E11.8.1 and the Battelle test MC3. The results demonstrate that field code simulations with computer codes like GASFLOW are feasible today for complex containment geometries and that they are necessary for a reliable prediction of hydrogen/steam distribution and mitigation effects. (author)

  18. Using high-resolution phosphorus data to investigate mitigation measures in headwater river catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Campbell

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study reports the use of high resolution water quality monitoring to assess the influence of changes in landuse management on total phosphorus (TP transfers in two 5 km2 agricultural sub-catchments. Specifically, the work investigates the "wicked problem" of agricultural soil P management and subsequent diffuse transfers at high river flows over a five year timescale. The work also investigates the phenomenon of low flow P pollution from septic tank systems (STS and mitigation efforts here termed the "filthy issue" of rural catchment management. Results showed an inconsistent response to soil P management over five years with one catchment showing a convergence to optimum P concentrations and the other an overall increase. Both catchments indicated an overall increase in P concentration in defined high flow ranges. Low flow P concentration showed little change or higher P concentrations in defined low flow ranges despite replacement of defective systems and this is possibly due to a number of confounding reasons including increased housing densities due to new-builds. The work indicates fractured responses to catchment management advice and mitigation and that the short to medium term may be an insufficient time to expect the full implementation of policies (here defined as convergence to optimum soil P concentration and mitigation of STS and also to gauge their effectiveness.

  19. CAPM and APT-like models with risk measures

    OpenAIRE

    Balbs, Alejandro; Balbs, Beatriz; Balbs, Raquel

    2010-01-01

    The paper deals with optimal portfolio choice problems when risk levels are given by coherent risk measures, expectation bounded risk measures or general deviations. Both static and dynamic pricing models may be involved. Unbounded problems are characterized by new notions such as compatibility and strong compatibility between pricing rules and risk measures. Surprisingly, it is pointed out that the lack of bounded optimal risk and/or return levels arises in practice for ver...

  20. The reordering urban community participation. A strategy for the prevention and mitigation of risk by geological phenomena: Case of implementation in Medellin, Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this article, it is showed the fulfilled methodology by the municipality of Medellin-Colombia and its results, at the Picacho sector, for the risk prevention and mitigation of rock fall It is formulated and developed a project for urban rearrangement, in which the community participation is the transverse component at the planning- management, risk prevention- mitigation, legalization of land's possession, housing improvement- relocation, and urban infrastructure. The most important results were a) the improvement of quality's life for residents, benefiting directly about 2,500 people and indirectly about 24,000, with one investment near 3.6 dollar millions; b) construction of social web and membership sense; c) better governance and better state-community relation; and d) risk reduction of rock fall As the main conclusion it is expounded that the community participation at all stages of the project and the concept that the risk is non resolved problem of the development are two determining elements so that urban rearrangement may be, in many cases, the better option for the risk prevention and mitigation of geological phenomena in urban areas of unmannerly development, rather than one massive relocation of the population

  1. Two dimensional CFD analysis of shock wave propagation for developing mitigation measures of severe accident explosive loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After Fukushima accident, a new need is raised for preserving integrity of vital components and structures in a nuclear power plant against blast waves from hydrogen and steam explosion during a severe accident. A research is underway for developing hydrodynamic and/or mechanical measures for mitigating such shock waves. For the research, an analysis methodology and its validation for shock wave propagation through diverse media of air, water or mixture and reflection/damping via such measures is important. As a starting point of the development, CFD method is applied for prediction of shock wave propagation in an existing shock tube experiment. And the results are discussed by comparing with previous analyses

  2. Groundwater and urbanisation, risks and mitigation: The case for the city of Windhoek, Namibia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mapani, B. S.

    The City of Windhoek is underlain by the Kuiseb Schist, locally known as the “Windhoek Schist” and amphibolites. In the low-lying parts of the Windhoek valley, gravels and sands are present. The Windhoek schist has several lithologies, dominated by garnet-muscovite-chlorite-biotite schist, with distinctive cleavage. This pervasive cleavage renders the underlying lithology permeable to fluids percolating from the surface into the aquifer. Other minor lithologies are trachytes, metarhyolites and quartzites found to the east of the city. The amphibolite is part of the Matchless belt, and traverses the city in a NE-SW fashion. When weathered, it forms a perfect aquiclude. North-south and northeast-southwest trending faults with a few splays cut across the Kuiseb Schist. The faults play a significant role in increasing the fracture density of the fissile schist. The faults are the major links that form channels between the surface and the aquifer below. The city of Windhoek uses the aquifer both as a source of fresh water and as a storage facility. The recharge areas of the aquifer lie to the east and south- to southeast of the city in the vicinity of the suburb of Kleine Kuppe. The soil horizon over the Windhoek schist is very shallow and most buildings are built directly on bedrock. The thin soil horizon makes the aquifer prone to pollution, caused either by accidents such as spills or by carelessness due to unsupervised dumping. The fissility and fracture density of the schist imply that leakage of surface waters, phenols, septic-tank spills, sewer-bursts, chemical and industrial contaminants and other such materials can reach the aquifer in unusually high rainfall years. The effects of fuels and oils are much more adverse, as they may remain in soils for long periods. The rapid urbanization and building of informal settlements without sewage reticulation has increased the risk of pollution to the Windhoek aquifer. The close monitoring of sewage pipes, filling stations and dump sites (including cemeteries), preferably using a GIS-based model, is the best way to prevent future pollution.

  3. A process-based model for the definition of hydrological alert systems in landslide risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floris, M.; D'Alpaos, A.; De Agostini, A.; Stevan, G.; Tessari, G.; Genevois, R.

    2012-11-01

    The definition of hydrological alert systems for rainfall-induced landslides is strongly related to a deep knowledge of the geological and geomorphological features of the territory. Climatic conditions, spatial and temporal evolution of the phenomena and characterization of landslide triggering, together with propagation mechanisms, are the key elements to be considered. Critical steps for the development of the systems consist of the identification of the hydrological variable related to landslide triggering and of the minimum rainfall threshold for landslide occurrence. In this paper we report the results from a process-based model to define a hydrological alert system for the Val di Maso Landslide, located in the northeastern Italian Alps and included in the Vicenza Province (Veneto region, NE Italy). The instability occurred in November 2010, due to an exceptional rainfall event that hit the Vicenza Province and the entire NE Italy. Up to 500 mm in 3-day cumulated rainfall generated large flood conditions and triggered hundreds of landslides. During the flood, the Soil Protection Division of the Vicenza Province received more than 500 warnings of instability phenomena. The complexity of the event and the high level of risk to infrastructure and private buildings are the main reasons for deepening the specific phenomenon occurred at Val di Maso. Empirical and physically-based models have been used to identify the minimum rainfall threshold for the occurrence of instability phenomena in the crown area of Val di Maso landslide, where a retrogressive evolution by multiple rotational slides is expected. Empirical models helped in the identification and in the evaluation of recurrence of critical rainfall events, while physically-based modelling was essential to verify the effects on the slope stability of determined rainfall depths. Empirical relationships between rainfall and landslide consist of the calculation of rainfall Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves, which allow one to determine rainfall depth (or intensity) as a function of duration for given return periods or probabilities of exceedance (frequencies). Physically-based modelling was performed through coupled seepage and slope stability analyses. Combining results from empirical and physically-based modelling, the minimum alert threshold for a reactivation of the phenomenon was found in rainfall cumulated up to 60 days with a return period of 2 yr. These results were used to set up a hydrological alert system based on the calibration of DDF curves which can be used as a sort of abacus to plot in real time rainfall depths and to set increasing levels of alert on the basis of the degree of exceptionality of rainfall. The alert system for Val di Maso was successfully tested by the rainfall events that produced displacements which have been recorded by extensometers placed in the crown area after the November 2010 landslide. However, further tests are recommendable to improve the process-based model that led to the implementation of the alert system. To this end, a monitoring system is currently being realized. In the near future, monitoring data will help in testing and improving landslide evolution and alert models. The proposed hydrological alert system proves to be effective mainly because it can be applied to different scales of investigation and geological and geomorphological contexts. In fact, it might also be applicable to territorial scale analyses, as showed by the brief example provided in this paper on how the alert system could be used for landslide early warning in the area surrounding Val di Maso. Furthermore, it is easy to set up. The needed components are a rain gauge station, a software that compares rainfall data to rainfall events with different return periods and degree of alert, and a transmission system of the warning levels to authorities.

  4. A process-based model for the definition of hydrological alert systems in landslide risk mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Floris

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The definition of hydrological alert systems for rainfall-induced landslides is strongly related to a deep knowledge of the geological and geomorphological features of the territory. Climatic conditions, spatial and temporal evolution of the phenomena and characterization of landslide triggering, together with propagation mechanisms, are the key elements to be considered. Critical steps for the development of the systems consist of the identification of the hydrological variable related to landslide triggering and of the minimum rainfall threshold for landslide occurrence.

    In this paper we report the results from a process-based model to define a hydrological alert system for the Val di Maso Landslide, located in the northeastern Italian Alps and included in the Vicenza Province (Veneto region, NE Italy. The instability occurred in November 2010, due to an exceptional rainfall event that hit the Vicenza Province and the entire NE Italy. Up to 500 mm in 3-day cumulated rainfall generated large flood conditions and triggered hundreds of landslides. During the flood, the Soil Protection Division of the Vicenza Province received more than 500 warnings of instability phenomena. The complexity of the event and the high level of risk to infrastructure and private buildings are the main reasons for deepening the specific phenomenon occurred at Val di Maso.

    Empirical and physically-based models have been used to identify the minimum rainfall threshold for the occurrence of instability phenomena in the crown area of Val di Maso landslide, where a retrogressive evolution by multiple rotational slides is expected. Empirical models helped in the identification and in the evaluation of recurrence of critical rainfall events, while physically-based modelling was essential to verify the effects on the slope stability of determined rainfall depths. Empirical relationships between rainfall and landslide consist of the calculation of rainfall Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF curves, which allow one to determine rainfall depth (or intensity as a function of duration for given return periods or probabilities of exceedance (frequencies. Physically-based modelling was performed through coupled seepage and slope stability analyses.

    Combining results from empirical and physically-based modelling, the minimum alert threshold for a reactivation of the phenomenon was found in rainfall cumulated up to 60 days with a return period of 2 yr. These results were used to set up a hydrological alert system based on the calibration of DDF curves which can be used as a sort of abacus to plot in real time rainfall depths and to set increasing levels of alert on the basis of the degree of exceptionality of rainfall.

    The alert system for Val di Maso was successfully tested by the rainfall events that produced displacements which have been recorded by extensometers placed in the crown area after the November 2010 landslide. However, further tests are recommendable to improve the process-based model that led to the implementation of the alert system. To this end, a monitoring system is currently being realized. In the near future, monitoring data will help in testing and improving landslide evolution and alert models.

    The proposed hydrological alert system proves to be effective mainly because it can be applied to different scales of investigation and geological and geomorphological contexts. In fact, it might also be applicable to territorial scale analyses, as showed by the brief example provided in this paper on how the alert system could be used for landslide early warning in the area surrounding Val di Maso. Furthermore, it is easy to set up. The needed components are a rain gauge station, a software that compares rainfall data to rainfall events with different return periods and degree of alert, and a transmission system of the warning levels to authorities.

  5. Coupling Vector-host Dynamics with Weather Geography and Mitigation Measures to Model Rift Valley Fever in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMahon, B.H.; Manore, C.A.; Hyman, J.M.; LaBute, M.X.; Fair, J.M.

    2015-01-01

    We present and characterize a multi-host epidemic model of Rift Valley fever (RVF) virus in East Africa with geographic spread on a network, rule-based mitigation measures, and mosquito infection and population dynamics. Susceptible populations are depleted by disease and vaccination and are replenished with the birth of new animals. We observe that the severity of the epidemics is strongly correlated with the duration of the rainy season and that even severe epidemics are abruptly terminated when the rain stops. Because naturally acquired herd immunity is established, total mortality across 25 years is relatively insensitive to many mitigation approaches. Strong reductions in cattle mortality are expected, however, with sufficient reduction in population densities of either vectors or susceptible (ie. unvaccinated) hosts. A better understanding of RVF epidemiology would result from serology surveys to quantify the importance of herd immunity in epidemic control, and sequencing of virus from representative animals to quantify the realative importance of transportation and local reservoirs in nucleating yearly epidemics. Our results suggest that an effective multi-layered mitigation strategy would include vector control, movement control, and vaccination of young animals yearly, even in the absence of expected rainfall. PMID:25892858

  6. Entropy Coherent and Entropy Convex Measures of Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Laeven, R.J.A.; Stadje, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    We introduce two subclasses of convex measures of risk, referred to as entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk. We prove that convex, entropy convex and entropy coherent measures of risk emerge as certainty equivalents under variational, homothetic and multiple priors preferences, respectively, upon requiring the certainty equivalents to be translation invariant. In addition, we study the properties of entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk, derive their dual conjug...

  7. Performance evaluating of the AP1000 passive safety systems for mitigation of small break loss of coolant accident using risk assessment tool-II software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► The SBLOCA CDF has been estimated to be 1.934E−8/year, using RAT II. ► The simplicity and passive safety systems result in decrease in the probability of CCF. ► However, the importance analysis ranks the CCF as the greatest contributor in CDF. ► Automatic and manual actuation failure probabilities have been founded to have low contribution in the SBLOCA CDF. ► The analysis assesses the performance of passive safety systems and reveals the deficiencies. - Abstract: The successful performance of defense barriers in the operating nuclear power plants is vital to avoid any release of highly radioactive fission products. Passive safety systems, independent of the electrical power, are implemented in modern NPPs to improve their reliability on demand. In this study, the SB-LOCA CDF is evaluated for the AP1000 to assess the performance of passive safety systems. The core damage states are examined to identify the most considerable risk contributors. Besides, importance measures rank the failures. Risk assessment tool-II has been designed and developed, in the safety research center of Shiraz University, to develop the PSA level 1 models. Using redundant passive and diverse reliable safety systems result in the low CDF of SB-LOCA (i.e. 1.934E−08). Considering the dominant sequences indicates that relying on passive automatic actuation mitigating processes, independent of operator actuations and electrical motive power leads to the considerable decrease in the probability of common cause failures and the CDF. However, importance analysis reveals the high contribution of CCFBEs in the SB-LOCA CDF. The results identify the weak points of operation and the most important risk contributors, in order to improve the inadequacies in design, test and maintenance and required human actions.

  8. Computational Dynamic Market Risk Measures in Discrete Time Setting

    OpenAIRE

    Babacar Seck; Elliott, Robert. J; Jean-Pierre Gueyie

    2013-01-01

    Different approaches to defining dynamic market risk measures are available in the literature. Most are focused or derived from probability theory, economic behavior or dynamic programming. Here, we propose an approach to define and implement dynamic market risk measures based on recursion and state economy representation. The proposed approach is to be implementable and to inherit properties from static market risk measures.

  9. Safety measure S 05 'Sump clogging risk'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper dealt with the safety measure S 05 'Sump clogging risk'. Problem specification contains: (1) to determine the effective strainer surface needed to be available in order to assure sufficient coolant volumes for a reliable operation of emergency systems; (2) to determine quantity and structure of insulation material which can be dislodged and can induce strained clogging; (3) to verify properties of insulation material with regard to its thermal degradation as a result of a long-term reactor unit operation; (4) to design and erect strainers so to assure sufficient congestion of emergency pump intake lines in post-accident regimes; (5) to design seismically resistant strainers with a capability to resist dynamic impacts from adjacent piping; (6) to assure monitoring of the strainer condition in real time with signals sent to the main control room

  10. WHEN THE DISASTER TREATMENT IN THE HEAD OF EYES: THE EFFORTS OF MITIGATION POLICY AND REDUCTION OF THE DISASTER RISK IN PADANG CITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roni Ekha Putera,

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The disaster inspection a few years recently has been an interesting topic discuss, not only by government but also non-government organization and society. The unsuspected various disaster had opened eyes of all side, how important prevention towards disaster is in the future. The way of thinking in the disaster management prevention at this present time had undergone the change from relief paradigm and respond to contingency planning, vulnerability reduction and disaster risk eventually leads to disaster management more comprehensive. Padang city is as one of the cities located in west Sumatra province as a resort that frequently disturbed by the earthquake and tsunami. Based on notification from volcanical directorat and Mitigation of geology disaster (DVMBG Energy Department and mineral Resources showed that there were 28 areas stated shaking disturbance and tsunami in Indonesia. Padang city is situated at the fire of the ring. Accordingly, this article explained about how is Padang City going to implement The effort of mitigation policy and reduction of disaster risk in minimalizing the resulted impact when the earthquake occurred. Various effort that had ever been done by Padang city among other thing is disaster mitigation such as structural and cultural mitigation. The other effort is empowering disaster prepared people through the disaster prepared group.

  11. Spray drift of pesticides and stream macroinvertebrates: Experimental evidence of impacts and effectiveness of mitigation measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maltby, Lorraine [Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN (United Kingdom)], E-mail: l.maltby@sheffield.ac.uk; Hills, Louise [Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN (United Kingdom)

    2008-12-15

    Impoverished stream communities in agricultural landscapes have been associated with pesticide contamination, but conclusive evidence of causality is rare. We address this deficiency by adopting an experimental approach to investigate the effects of the insecticides cypermethrin and chlorpyrifos on benthic macroinvertebrates. Three treatments were established and a combination of biomarker, bioassay and biomonitoring approaches was employed to investigate, individual, population and community-level effects. Animals deployed during pesticide application had altered enzyme activity, depressed feeding rate and reduced survival, but these effects were only observed where pesticide was sprayed to the stream edge. There were no clear pesticide-related effects on macroinvertebrate community structure or on the population densities of individual species. Hence, short-term pesticide exposure did cause individual-level effects in stream macroinvertebrates, but these were not translated to effects at the population or community-level and were effectively mitigated by the adoption of a no-spray buffer zone. - Pulsed pesticide exposures via spray drift adversely affected stream invertebrates but did not cause population or community-level effects and were mitigated by no-spray buffer zones.

  12. Spray drift of pesticides and stream macroinvertebrates: Experimental evidence of impacts and effectiveness of mitigation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Impoverished stream communities in agricultural landscapes have been associated with pesticide contamination, but conclusive evidence of causality is rare. We address this deficiency by adopting an experimental approach to investigate the effects of the insecticides cypermethrin and chlorpyrifos on benthic macroinvertebrates. Three treatments were established and a combination of biomarker, bioassay and biomonitoring approaches was employed to investigate, individual, population and community-level effects. Animals deployed during pesticide application had altered enzyme activity, depressed feeding rate and reduced survival, but these effects were only observed where pesticide was sprayed to the stream edge. There were no clear pesticide-related effects on macroinvertebrate community structure or on the population densities of individual species. Hence, short-term pesticide exposure did cause individual-level effects in stream macroinvertebrates, but these were not translated to effects at the population or community-level and were effectively mitigated by the adoption of a no-spray buffer zone. - Pulsed pesticide exposures via spray drift adversely affected stream invertebrates but did not cause population or community-level effects and were mitigated by no-spray buffer zones

  13. GHG (Greenhouse Gases) emission inventory and mitigation measures for public district heating plants in the Republic of Serbia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As a non-Annex I Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol signatory, the Republic of Serbia has committed to develop GHG (Greenhouse Gases) emission inventory and prepare comprehensive program of mitigation measures at national level. The paper presents results of 2000–2008 GHG emission inventory assembled for PDH (Public District Heating) sub-sector in accordance with revised IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Tier 1 methodology. Evaluation of proposed mitigation measures was performed based on 2012 and 2015 GHG emission projections, obtained for basic and four alternative scenarios, all characterized by the same energy demand but with different fuel mix used. The first alternative scenario addresses GHG emissions in case that solid fuel is substituted by natural gas. The second alternative scenario represents a sub-scenario of the first alternative scenario, with additional substitution of liquid fuel with locally available biomass. Third alternative scenario addresses emissions resulting from complete fuel switch from natural gas to liquid fuel oil, while the final alternative scenario considers the case when natural gas is the only energy resource used. GHG emission trends in the period until 2015, examined in case of previously mentioned basic and four alternative scenarios, point out to the positive impact of fuel switch on GHG emission reduction and pathways for future implementation of proposed mitigation measures. Results obtained clearly quantified assumption that fuel substitution by locally available biomass could solve environmental problems, overcome problems associated with high prices of imported fuels, improve energy supply security and increase local employment

  14. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies for drugs with abuse liability: public interest, special interest, conflicts of interest, and the industry perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Curtis; Schnoll, Sidney; Bernstein, David

    2008-10-01

    Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) formerly known as Risk Minimization Action Plans (RiskMAPs) are a regulatory technique for dealing with anticipated risks of new medications and are especially important for new drugs with abuse potential. This paper describes the origin and history of risk-management plans for drugs that might be abused, the proper use of these plans in minimizing the risk to the public, and the special difficulties inherent in managing risks for drugs with abuse potential. Drugs with abuse liability are distinctive since the risks inherent in manufacture and distribution include not only risks to patients prescribed the medications, but also risks to the general public including subgroups in the population not intended to get the drug and who receive no medical benefit from the medication. The crafting of risk-management plans intended to protect nonpatient populations is unique for these products. The content, extent, and level of intensity of these plans affect areas of medical ethics, civil liability, and criminal prosecution. The need for risk-management plans for drugs with abuse liability can potentially act as a deterrent to investment and is a factor in decisions concerning the development of new medications for the treatments of pain, ADHD, anxiety disorders, and addictions. This paper provides a framework for moving the process of REMS development forward and criteria for evaluating the probity and adequacy of such programs. PMID:18991964

  15. Landslide-dammed lake at Tangjiashan, Sichuan province, China (triggered by the Wenchuan Earthquake, May 12, 2008): Risk assessment, mitigation strategy, and lessons learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, P.; Dang, C.; Zhuang, J.; You, Y.; Chen, X.; Scott, K.M.

    2012-01-01

    Landslides and rock avalanches triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake produced 257 landslide dams, mainly situated along the eastern boundary of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau where rivers descend approximately 3,000 m into the Sichuan Basin. The largest of these dams blocked the Tongkou River (a tributary of the Fujiang River) at Tangjiashan. The blockage, consisting of 2. 04 ?? 10 7 m 3 of landslide debris, impounded a lake with a projected maximum volume of 3. 15 ?? 10 8 m 3, potentially inundating 8. 92 km 2 of terrain. Its creation during the rainy season and the possibility of an uncontrolled release posed a serious, impending threat to at least 1. 3 million people downstream that could add substantially to the total of 69,200 individuals directly killed by the earthquake. Risk assessment of the blockage indicated that it was unlikely to collapse suddenly, and that eventual overtopping could be mitigated by notching the structure in order to create an engineered breach and achieve safe drainage of the lake. In addition to the installation of monitoring and warning instrumentation, for emergency planning we estimated several outburst scenarios equivalent to 20, 25, 33, and 50% of the dam failing suddenly, creating, respectively, 3. 35, 3. 84, 4. 22, and 4. 65 km 2 of flooded area, and overbank water depths of 4. 6, 5. 1, 5. 7, and 6. 2 m, respectively, in Mianyang, the second largest city in Sichuan Province, 48 km downstream from the blockage. Based on these scenarios, recommendations and plans for excavating a sluiceway, draining the lake, and downstream evacuation were proposed and later were implemented successfully, with the blockage breached by overtopping on June 10, less than a month after dam emplacement. The peak discharge of the release only slightly exceeded the flood of record at Mianyang City. No lives were lost, and significant property damage was avoided. Post-breaching evaluation reveals how future similar mitigation can be improved. Although initial breach erosion was slow, later erosion was judged uncontrollably rapid; increased slope of the engineered channel and adoption of a compound, trapezoid-triangular cross-section can be considered, as can other measures to control the rate of breach incision. Evacuees from Mianyang City spent an unnecessarily long time (12 days) in temporary settlements; more precise risk management planning can reduce this time in the future. ?? 2010 Springer-Verlag.

  16. Some design measures and concepts for the prevention and mitigation of severe accidents in the Indian advanced heavy water reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorium utilisation has been an important aspect of the Indian Nuclear Power Programme. The strategy of realising large scale power generation from thorium has been clearly laid out right since the inception of the Indian Nuclear Power Programme. As a part of this strategy an Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR) is being developed. This reactor would generate most of the energy from U-233, bred in-situ from thorium. The paper describes the reactor configuration and passive safety features to remove core heat and also to ensure integrity of containment during accident scenarios. Some design measures and concepts for the prevention and mitigation of severe accidents in AHWR are described

  17. Cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gases mitigation measures in the European agro-forestry sector: a literature survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Over the last 20 years, climate change has become an increasing concern for scientists, public opinions and policy makers. Due to the pervasive nature of its impacts for many important aspects of human life, climate change is likely to influence and be influenced by the most diverse policy or management choices. This is particularly true for those interventions affecting agriculture and forestry: they are strongly dependent on climate phenomena, but also contribute to climate evolution being sources of and sinks for greenhouse gases (GHG). This paper offers a survey of the existing literature assessing cost-effectiveness and efficiency of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies or the effects of broader economic reforms in the agricultural and forestry sectors. The focus is mainly on European countries. Different methodological approaches, research questions addressed and results are examined. The main findings are that agriculture can potentially provide emissions reduction at a competitive cost, mainly with methane abatement, while carbon sequestration seems more cost-effective with appropriate forest management measures. Afforestation, cropland management and bioenergy are less economically viable measures due to competition with other land use. Mitigation policies should be carefully designed either to balance costs with expected benefits in terms of social welfare. Regional variability is one of the main drawbacks to fully assess the cost-effectiveness of different measures. Integration of models to take into account both social welfare and spatial heterogeneity seems to be the frontier of the next model generation

  18. Investigation of radon entry and effectiveness of mitigation measures in seven houses in New Jersey: Midproject report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A detailed radon mitigation study is in progress in 14 homes in the New Jersey Piedmont area. The principal goals are the refinement of diagnostic measurements for selection and implementation of mitigation systems, and the reduction of radon concentrations to acceptable levels inside the study houses. Monitoring stations were installed in each home in October, 1986. Instrumented measurements included: basement and upstairs radon; differential pressures across the basement/subslag, basement/upstairs and basement/outdoor interfaces; temperatures at basement, upstairs and outdoor locations; and central air handler usage. A weather station was located at one house, monitoring wind speed and direction; barometric pressure; precipitation; soil temperature; and outdoor temperature and relative humidity. A time-averaged value of all of the above parameters was recorded every 30 min. Several additional parameters were monitored on an intermittent basis in all or selected homes. These include multizone air infiltration rates which have been measured in all homes using passive perfluorocarbon tracers (PFT) and in two homes using a constant concentration tracer gas system (CCTG). Total radon progeny, soil gas radon concentration and permeability characteristics, and gamma radiation levels were also monitored periodically in all study homes. 10 refs., 53 figs

  19. Evaluating the effectiveness of urban energy conservation and GHG mitigation measures: The case of Xiamen city, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    To assess the effectiveness of urban energy conservation and GHG mitigation measures, a detailed Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model is developed and applied to analyze the future trends of energy demand and GHG emissions in Xiamen city. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future energy strategies in relation to the development of Xiamen city. The 'Business as Usual' scenario assumes that the government will do nothing to influence the long-term trends of urban energy demand. An 'Integrated' scenario, on the other hand, is generated to assess the cumulative impact of a series of available reduction measures: clean energy substitution, industrial energy conservation, combined heat and power generation, energy conservation in building, motor vehicle control, and new and renewable energy development and utilization. The reduction potentials in energy consumption and GHG emissions are estimated for a time span of 2007-2020 under these different scenarios. The calculation results in Xiamen show that the clean energy substitution measure is the most effective in terms of energy saving and GHG emissions mitigation, while the industrial sector has the largest abatement potential.

  20. Heat stress and vitamin E in diets for broilers as a mitigating measure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felipe Santos Dalólio

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This review aimed to identify the importance of vitamin E dietary supplementation to broilers subjected to heat stress in relation to metabolism, growth performance and quality of animal products and its effects on immune system. Vitamin E is the concentration of tocopherol and tocotrienol, which can be found in natural or synthetic form. This vitamin is essential for the integrity of reproductive, muscular, circulatory, nervous and immune systems of the animals. In order to reduce the harmful effects of high temperatures in poultry production, vitamin E supplementation is a viable alternative for the sector. Some studies indicate its potential antioxidant effect able to modulate inflammatory responses and physiological adjustments to mitigate the undesirable effects of exposure of broilers to high temperatures. Moreover, it has been found increased viability of animals due to the greater activation of the immune system, and improved quality of animal products given to the deposition in tissues with consequent nutritional enrichment of meat products.

  1. Construction and measurements of a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnee, R. W.; Bunker, R.; Ghulam, G.; Jardin, D.; Kos, M.; Tenney, A. S.

    2013-08-01

    Long-lived alpha and beta emitters in the 222Rn decay chain on (and near) detector surfaces may be the limiting background in many experiments attempting to detect dark matter or neutrinoless double beta decay, and in screening detectors. In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto the wires of the Beta Cage during its assembly, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at Syracuse University using a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system. The radon filter shows 20 reduction at its output, from 7.470.56 to 0.370.12 Bq/m3, and the cleanroom radon activity meets project requirements, with a lowest achieved value consistent with that of the filter, and levels consistently < 2 Bq/m3.

  2. Construction and measurements of a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system

    CERN Document Server

    Schnee, R W; Ghulam, G; Jardin, D; Kos, M; Tenney, A S

    2014-01-01

    Long-lived alpha and beta emitters in the $^{222}$Rn decay chain on (and near) detector surfaces may be the limiting background in many experiments attempting to detect dark matter or neutrinoless double-beta decay, and in screening detectors. In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto the wires of the BetaCage during its assembly, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at Syracuse University using a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system. The radon filter shows ~20$\\times$ reduction at its output, from 7.47$\\pm$0.56 to 0.37$\\pm$0.12 Bq/m$^3$, and the cleanroom radon activity meets project requirements, with a lowest achieved value consistent with that of the filter, and levels consistently < 2 Bq/m$^3$.

  3. Landscape-scale accessibility of livestock to tigers: implications of spatial grain for modeling predation risk to mitigate human–carnivore conflict

    OpenAIRE

    Miller, Jennifer R B; Jhala, Yadvendradev V.; Jena, Jyotirmay; Oswald J. Schmitz

    2015-01-01

    Innovative conservation tools are greatly needed to reduce livelihood losses and wildlife declines resulting from human–carnivore conflict. Spatial risk modeling is an emerging method for assessing the spatial patterns of predator–prey interactions, with applications for mitigating carnivore attacks on livestock. Large carnivores that ambush prey attack and kill over small areas, requiring models at fine spatial grains to predict livestock depredation hot spots. To detect the best resolution ...

  4. Beyond Value-at-Risk: GlueVaR Distortion Risk Measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belles-Sampera, Jaume; Guilln, Montserrat; Santolino, Miguel

    2013-06-11

    We propose a new family of risk measures, called GlueVaR, within the class of distortion risk measures. Analytical closed-form expressions are shown for the most frequently used distribution functions in financial and insurance applications. The relationship between GlueVaR, value-at-risk, and tail value-at-risk is explained. Tail subadditivity is investigated and it is shown that some GlueVaR risk measures satisfy this property. An interpretation in terms of risk attitudes is provided and a discussion is given on the applicability in nonfinancial problems such as health, safety, environmental, or catastrophic risk management. PMID:23758120

  5. NITRATE TOXICITY IN GROUNDWATER: ITS CLINICAL MANIFESTATIONS, PREVENTIVE MEASURES AND MITIGATION STRATEGIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raaz K. Maheshwari

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater pollution has become a drastic problem principally because of nature and wide spread use of modern chemicals viz. pesticides and fertilizers. Excessive application of fertilizers as well as organic wastes and sewage has been implicated in the nitrogen pollution of groundwater. Therefore, the issue of rising nitrate concentration in groundwater has become a subject of extensive research in India and Rajasthan in particular. In natural water, nitrate ((NO3- N is usually 100ppm and in organic matters (amine and /or amides resulting in the production of nitrosamines (carcinogens. Number of cases (human and livestock, suffering from gastric cancer have been observed. Reverse osmosis (RO process has great potential in the mitigation of nitrate ion containing waters. Generally, the presence of particular substances may affect the removal of specific ions. The presence of di-hydrogen phosphate ions (DHP-ions in the feed solution enhances the nitrate removal efficiency of the polyamide RO membrane. In this present research work, a Flmtec TW30, polyamide thin-film composite, RO membrane was used for nitrate removal through RO set up. The rejection of individual nitrate was found to be around 76%. After addition of KH2¬PO4 to the feed containing nitrate ions the rejection was improved up to 84. This high level of increment in rejection of nitrate ion indicates the possible usage of KH2¬PO4 in RO for nitrate removal. This fact of removal is due to the K+ ions binding to the electronic lone-pairs of polyamide membrane holding di-hydrogen phosphate ions. This establishes a negative layer on the surface of the membrane. The diffusion of nitrate through the membrane is diminished by the formed layer. Present manuscript delineates clinical manifestations of nitrate toxicity and mitigation of nitrate ion by means of state-of-the-art reverse osmosis technology.

  6. Monitoring and mitigating measures to reduce potential impacts of oil and gas exploration and development on bears in the Inuvik region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Branigan, M. [Government of the Northwest Territories, Inuvik, NT (Canada). Dept. of Environment and Natural Resources

    2007-07-01

    The Inuvik Region consists of the Northwest Territories portion of the Inuvialuit Settlement Region and the Gwich'in Settlement Area. The range of grizzly bears, polar bears and black bears extends to different parts of the region. The potential impact of development depends on the season of the development and the species of bear found in the footprint. As such, monitoring and mitigation measures should take this into consideration. This presentation focused on the potential impacts and current practices to monitor and mitigate the impacts in the region. Mitigation measures currently used include: communication with stakeholders; waste management guidelines; use of wildlife monitors to identify key habitat and den sites and to deter bears; minimum flight altitudes; and safety training. Suggestions for additional mitigation measures were also presented. figs.

  7. The Belgian Risk Perception Barometer Risk Perception Measuring Instruments Revisited

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aeken, Koen van; Carle, Benny; Hardeman, Frank [SCK-CEN, Mol (Belgium). PISA

    2006-09-15

    The recognition of the societal dimension of risk assessment has been at the cradle of the opinion research on risks. Since risk estimates are not fixed by experts anymore, but are considered to show variation across a diverse population, the people themselves must be asked how they experience the risks. Following the rise in popularity of risk assessment and the recognition of its 'human' dimension, the demand for public opinion surveys on risks has been increasing at a fast pace. Unfortunately, this high demand sees some negative consequences. First, surveys are frequently conducted by people lacking even a minimal knowledge of survey methodology. In this respect, we might think of a journal or a newspaper trying to impress their readers with the definitive public opinion poll about the latest issue in vogue. Second, time pressure causes experienced or trained researchers to lower themselves to 'quick and dirty' work. While methodologically flawed opinion research might not be something to worry about when appearing in the amusement press, concern is due if the results of a survey inspire policy development. Indeed, when public opinion research is conceived as an instrument to support rational, evidence based public policy, the strictest methodological standards should be applied, even if it is clear that scientific research will never substitute political reasoning. This contribution deals with the safeguarding and enhancing of the quality of large scale surveys focusing on risk perception and related issues. This attention is relevant, not only for the reason that methodological standards may be flawed due to the immense popularity of the opinion poll, but also because the results of opinion surveys may have far-reaching policy consequences.

  8. The Belgian Risk Perception Barometer Risk Perception Measuring Instruments Revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The recognition of the societal dimension of risk assessment has been at the cradle of the opinion research on risks. Since risk estimates are not fixed by experts anymore, but are considered to show variation across a diverse population, the people themselves must be asked how they experience the risks. Following the rise in popularity of risk assessment and the recognition of its 'human' dimension, the demand for public opinion surveys on risks has been increasing at a fast pace. Unfortunately, this high demand sees some negative consequences. First, surveys are frequently conducted by people lacking even a minimal knowledge of survey methodology. In this respect, we might think of a journal or a newspaper trying to impress their readers with the definitive public opinion poll about the latest issue in vogue. Second, time pressure causes experienced or trained researchers to lower themselves to 'quick and dirty' work. While methodologically flawed opinion research might not be something to worry about when appearing in the amusement press, concern is due if the results of a survey inspire policy development. Indeed, when public opinion research is conceived as an instrument to support rational, evidence based public policy, the strictest methodological standards should be applied, even if it is clear that scientific research will never substitute political reasoning. This contribution deals with the safeguarding and enhancing of the quality of large scale surveys focusing on risk perception and related issues. This attention is relevant, not only for the reason that methodological standards may be flawed due to the immense popularity of the opinion poll, but also because the results of opinion surveys may have far-reaching policy consequences

  9. Risk and gender: measuring risk tolerance and gender differences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Majola Gava

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years there has been a growing interest among researchers and fund managers in understanding investors behavior towards risk. The lack of a standard model leads financial professionals to develop and use simplified methods, usually limited to simple conversations with clients about their level of well being in a variety of scenarios (GRABLE; LYTTON, 2001. The present article has two main objectives. The first objective is to develop and to verify the validity of a research instrument for the classification of investors according to their risk tolerance. The second objective is to verify if gender has an influence on risk tolerance. A total of 544 questionnaires were applied to undergraduate and post-graduate students of seven Brazilian universities. A Factor Analysis established that there are three different risk factors in this research. When compared to the SCF question, the correlation analysis showed that the research questionnaire is able to determine other factors. The segmentation of the sample according to gender showed that women are more risk-averse than men, as documented by other studies. documented by other studies.

  10. Design measures for prevention and mitigation of severe accidents at advanced water cooled reactors. Proceedings of a technical committee meeting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Over 8500 reactor-years of operating experience have been accumulated with the current nuclear energy systems. New generations of nuclear power plants are being developed, building upon this background of experience. During the last decade, requirements for equipment specifically intended to minimize releases of radioactive material to the environment in the event of a core melt accident have been introduced, and designs for new plants include measures for preventing and mitigating a range of severe accident scenarios. The IAEA Technical Committee Meeting on Impact of Severe Accidents on Plant Design and Layout of Advanced Water Cooled Reactors was jointly organized by the Department of Nuclear Energy and the Department of Nuclear Safety to review measures which are being incorporated into advanced water cooled reactor designs for preventing and mitigating severe accidents, the status of experimental and analytical investigations of severe accident phenomena and challenges which support design decisions and accident management procedures, and to understand the impact of explicitly addressing severe accidents on the cost of nuclear power plants. This publication is intended to provide an objective source of information on this topic. It includes 14 papers presented at the Technical Committee meeting held in Vienna between 21-25 October 1996. It also includes a Summary and Findings of the Working Groups. The papers were grouped in three sections. A separate abstract was prepared for each paper

  11. ANALYSIS OF THE APPLICABILITY OF SOME RISK ASSESSMENT MODELS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPOSURE TO RADON FOR EVALUATION OF EFFECTIVENESS OF RADON MITIGATION ACTIONS IN SCHOOLS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Kononenko

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the results of risk assessment from exposure to radon before and after radon mitigation actions in school. Twofold reduction of radon EEC (from 231 to 109.6 Bq/m3 in the long term can lead to decrease of lifetime attributable risk by 2.2–2.4% for the entire population (depending on the standard population used, 2.7% for men, 1.2% for women. These results were obtained using «FCZ» model. Models «EPA-2003» and «Wismut-2006» were not sensitive enough for use in such tasks.

  12. WHY VOLATILITY IS AN INAPPROPRIATE RISK MEASURE FOR REAL ESTATE

    OpenAIRE

    Müller, M.; C. Lausberg

    2010-01-01

    The adequate measurement of real estate risk is of utmost importance for asset management and real estate portfolio management. Most real estate academics agree that volatility, commonly used as a measure of real estate risk, is inappropriate for that purpose. However, volatility is still a favored measure of many practitioners, especially for comparing the risk of real estate with other assets such as securities. And even real estate academics still use this measure due to its simplicity and...

  13. Basel III Liquidity Risk Measures and Bank Failure

    OpenAIRE

    Meniago, C.; J. Mukuddem-Petersen; M. A. Petersen; Hlatshwayo, L. N. P.

    2013-01-01

    Basel III banking regulation emphasizes the use of liquidity coverage and nett stable funding ratios as measures of liquidity risk. In this paper, we approximate these measures by using global liquidity data for 391 hand-selected, LIBOR-based, Basel II compliant banks in 36 countries for the period 2002 to 2012. In particular, we compare the risk sensitivity of the aforementioned Basel III liquidity risk measures to those of traditional measures such as the nonperforming assets ratio, return-...

  14. Validating the backtests of risk measures

    OpenAIRE

    Cotter, John; Zhong, Yan Ping

    2007-01-01

    Financial risk model evaluation or backtesting is a key part of the internal model’s approach to market risk management as laid out by the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision (2004). However there are a number of backtests that may be applied and there is little guidance as to the most appropriate method. The goal of this paper is to analyze the ability of various evaluation methodologies to gauge the accuracy of risk models. We compare evaluation effectiveness using the sta...

  15. A Dynamical Approach to Operational Risk Measurement

    OpenAIRE

    Marco Bardoscia; Roberto Bellotti

    2012-01-01

    We propose a dynamical model for the estimation of Operational Risk in banking institutions. Operational Risk is the risk that a financial loss occurs as the result of failed processes. Examples of operational losses are the ones generated by internal frauds, human errors or failed transactions. In order to encompass the most heterogeneous set of processes, in our approach the losses of each process are generated by the interplay among random noise, interactions with other processes and the e...

  16. CO{sub 2}-mitigation measures through reduction of fossil fuel burning in power utilities. Which road to go?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaupp, A. [Energetica International Inc., Suva (Fiji)

    1996-12-31

    Five conditions, at minimum, should be examined in the comparative analysis of CO{sub 2}-mitigation options for the power sector. Under the continuing constraint of scarce financial resources for any private or public investment in the power sector, the following combination of requirements characterise a successful CO{sub 2}-mitigation project: (1) Financial attractiveness for private or public investors. (2) Low, or even negative, long range marginal costs per ton of `CO{sub 2} saved`. (3) High impact on CO{sub 2}-mitigation, which indicates a large market potential for the measure. (4) The number of individual investments required to achieve the impact is relatively small. In other words, logistical difficulties in project implementation are minimised. (5) The projects are `socially fair` and have minimal negative impact on any segment of the society. This paper deals with options to reduce carbonaceous fuel burning in the power sector. Part I explains how projects should be selected and classified. Part II describes the technical options. Since reduction of carbonaceous fuel burning may be achieved through Demand Side Management (DSM) and Supply Side Management (SSM) both are treated. Within the context of this paper SSM does not mean to expand power supply as demand grows. It means to economically generate and distribute power as efficiently as possible. In too many instances DSM has degenerated into efficient lighting programs and utility managed incentives and rebate programs. To what extent this is a desirable situation for utilities in Developing Countries that face totally different problems as their counterparts in highly industrialised countries remains to be seen. Which road to go is the topic of this paper.

  17. Risk Measure Pricing and Hedging in Incomplete Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Mingxin Xu

    2004-01-01

    This article attempts to extend the complete market option pricing theory to incomplete markets. Instead of eliminating the risk by a perfect hedging portfolio, partial hedging will be adopted and some residual risk at expiration will be tolerated. The risk measure (or risk indifference) prices charged for buying or selling an option are associated to the capital required for dynamic hedging so that the risk exposure will not increase. The associated optimal hedging portfolio is decided by mi...

  18. Can we measure individual risk attitudes in a survey?

    OpenAIRE

    Ding, Xiaohao; Hartog, Joop; Sun, Yuze

    2010-01-01

    We combine a survey and an experiment with real pay-out among Peking University students to measure and validate individual risk attitudes. The experiment involves choosing between a cash payment and playing a lottery. The survey questions ask for the reservation price of a hypothetical lottery and self-assessment of risk attitude on a 0-10 scale. We confirm familiar findings: risk aversion dominates, women are more risk averse than men, risk aversion decreases with increasing parental income...

  19. Beyond Value-at-Risk : GlueVaR Distortion Risk Measures

    OpenAIRE

    Jaume Belles-Sampera; Montserrat Guilln; Miguel Santolino(Universitat de Barcelona)

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new family of risk measures, called GlueVaR, within the class of distortion risk measures. Analytical closed-form expressions are shown for the most frequently used distribution functions in financial and insurance applications. The relationship between Glue-VaR, Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Tail Value-at-Risk (TVaR) is explained. Tail-subadditivity is investigated and it is shown that some GlueVaR risk measures satisfy this property. An inter-pretation in terms of risk attitudes is p...

  20. How to mitigate impacts of wind farms on bats? A review of potential conservation measures in the European context

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peste, Filipa, E-mail: filipapeste@gmail.com [Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM) (Portugal); Department of Biology, University of Aveiro (Portugal); Paula, Anabela [Bioinsight - Ambiente e Biodiversidade, Lda. Lisboa (Portugal); Silva, Luís P. da [Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM) (Portugal); Department of Biology, University of Aveiro (Portugal); MARE and CEF, Department of Life Sciences, University of Coimbra (Portugal); Bernardino, Joana; Pereira, Pedro [Bio3 - Estudos e Projectos em Biologia e Recursos Naturais, Lda. Almada (Portugal); Mascarenhas, Miguel [Bioinsight - Ambiente e Biodiversidade, Lda. Lisboa (Portugal); Costa, Hugo [Bio3 - Estudos e Projectos em Biologia e Recursos Naturais, Lda. Almada (Portugal); Vieira, José; Bastos, Carlos [Department of Electronics, Telecommunications and Informatics / IEETA, University of Aveiro (Portugal); Fonseca, Carlos [Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM) (Portugal); Department of Biology, University of Aveiro (Portugal); Pereira, Maria João Ramos [Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM) (Portugal); PPGBAN, Department of Zoology, Institute of Biosciences, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil); PPGEC, Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul (Brazil)

    2015-02-15

    Wind energy is growing worldwide as a source of power generation. Bat assemblages may be negatively affected by wind farms due to the fatality of a significant number of individuals after colliding with the moving turbines or experiencing barotrauma. The implementation of wind farms should follow standard procedures to prevent such negative impacts: avoid, reduce and offset, in what is known as the mitigation hierarchy. According to this approach avoiding impacts is the priority, followed by the minimisation of the identified impacts, and finally, when residual negative impacts still remain, those must be offset or at least compensated. This paper presents a review on conservation measures for bats and presents some guidelines within the compensation scenario, focusing on negative impacts that remain after avoidance and minimisation measures. The conservation strategies presented aim at the improvement of the ecological conditions for the bat assemblage as a whole. While developed under the European context, the proposed measures are potentially applicable elsewhere, taking into consideration the specificity of each region in terms of bat assemblages present, landscape features and policy context regarding nature and biodiversity conservation and management. An analysis of potential opportunities and constraints arising from the implementation of offset/compensation programmes and gaps in the current knowledge is also considered. - Highlights: • Wind energy impacts bat populations in ways not yet fully understood. • As the use of windfarms is growing worldwide greater impacts on bat populations are also expected. • Mitigation hierarchy provides a way to reduce impacts from new wind farm facilities. • Compensation measures may be used to reduce the residual effects on bat populations. • Identify bats ecological needs and compensate according to the existing surroundings.

  1. How to mitigate impacts of wind farms on bats? A review of potential conservation measures in the European context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wind energy is growing worldwide as a source of power generation. Bat assemblages may be negatively affected by wind farms due to the fatality of a significant number of individuals after colliding with the moving turbines or experiencing barotrauma. The implementation of wind farms should follow standard procedures to prevent such negative impacts: avoid, reduce and offset, in what is known as the mitigation hierarchy. According to this approach avoiding impacts is the priority, followed by the minimisation of the identified impacts, and finally, when residual negative impacts still remain, those must be offset or at least compensated. This paper presents a review on conservation measures for bats and presents some guidelines within the compensation scenario, focusing on negative impacts that remain after avoidance and minimisation measures. The conservation strategies presented aim at the improvement of the ecological conditions for the bat assemblage as a whole. While developed under the European context, the proposed measures are potentially applicable elsewhere, taking into consideration the specificity of each region in terms of bat assemblages present, landscape features and policy context regarding nature and biodiversity conservation and management. An analysis of potential opportunities and constraints arising from the implementation of offset/compensation programmes and gaps in the current knowledge is also considered. - Highlights: • Wind energy impacts bat populations in ways not yet fully understood. • As the use of windfarms is growing worldwide greater impacts on bat populations are also expected. • Mitigation hierarchy provides a way to reduce impacts from new wind farm facilities. • Compensation measures may be used to reduce the residual effects on bat populations. • Identify bats ecological needs and compensate according to the existing surroundings

  2. Risk Measurement and Risk Modelling using Applications of Vine Copulas

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    This paper features an application of Regular Vine copulas which are a novel and recently developed statistical and mathematical tool which can be applied in the assessment of composite financial risk. Copula-based dependence modelling is a popular tool in financial applications, but is usually applied to pairs of securities. By contrast, Vine copulas provide greater flexibility and permit the modelling of complex dependency patterns using the rich variety of bivariate copulas which may be ar...

  3. Robust sampled-data H∞ control for vibration mitigation of offshore platforms with missing measurements

    OpenAIRE

    Cai, Mingjie; Xiang, Zhengrong; Karimi, Hamid Reza

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a robust sampled-data H ∞ control for vibration attenuation of offshore platforms with missing measurements subject to external wave force. It is well known that the phenomena of missing measurements are unavoidable due to various reasons, such as sensor aging and sensor temporal failure, which may degrade the control system performance or even cause instability. For active vibration control of offshore platforms with sampling measurements, to deal with the missing measure...

  4. Radiation risk estimation based on measurement error models

    CERN Document Server

    Masiuk, Sergii; Shklyar, Sergiy; Chepurny, Mykola; Likhtarov, Illya

    2016-01-01

    This monograph discusses statistics and risk estimates applied to radiation damage under the presence of measurement errors. The first part covers nonlinear measurement error models, with a particular emphasis on efficiency of regression parameter estimators. In the second part, risk estimation in models with measurement errors is considered. Efficiency of the methods presented is verified using data from radio-epidemiological studies.

  5. Multiobjective Lagrangian duality for portfolio optimization with risk measures

    OpenAIRE

    Elisa Pagani

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we present an application for a multiobjective optimization problem. The objective functions of the primal problem are the risk and the expected pain associated to a portfolio vector. Then, we present a Lagrangian dual problem for it. In order to formulate this problem, we introduce the theory about risk measures for a vector of random variables. The definition of this kind of measures is a very evolving topic; moreover, we want to measure the risk in the multidimensional case w...

  6. Traffic related air pollution : spatial variation, health effects and mitigation measures

    OpenAIRE

    Dijkema, M.B.A.

    2011-01-01

    Air pollution is probably the most intensely studied field in today’s environmental health research. The extensive body of literature on health effects associated with air pollution exposure has lead to prioritization of air pollution as public health risk factor and air quality regulations worldwide. At current levels air pollution, however, still has a significant health impact. Science could play an important role in the continuing policy debate on this issue, by providing a solid evidence...

  7. Preventive measures: how youngsters avoid online risks

    OpenAIRE

    Vandoninck, Sofie; d'Haenens, Leen; Smahel, David

    2014-01-01

    To protect children from online risks, it is important to recognise that children’s perceptions of online problematic situations may greatly differ from those of adults. What adults perceive as problematic does not necessarily result in a negative or harmful experience for children. This report shows that children’s perceptions of online risks strongly depend on their awareness of how online activities may turn into problematic or harmful situations. Also important ...

  8. Mitigation measures to contain the environmental impact of urban areas: a bibliographic review moving from the life cycle approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belussi, Lorenzo; Barozzi, Benedetta

    2015-12-01

    The global environmental impact of urban areas has greatly increased over the years, due to the growth of urbanisation and the associated increase in management costs. There are several measures aimed at mitigating this impact that affect in different ways the environmental, economic and societal spheres. This article has analysed a selection of different mitigation measures, related to the built environment, according to the life cycle approach, aimed at identifying the procedural features chosen by the different authors and defining a common way to deal with this issue. In particular, all the individual single steps of a Life Cycle Assessment/Life Cycle Costing of the different studies are analysed and the results of the individual measures are highlighted. The analysis has shown how the scientific literature is mainly focused on the evaluation of the impact of technological solutions related to individual buildings (cool/green roof). Less interest is shown in the solutions for urban areas, while, as far as the impact on greenhouse gas emissions is concerned, some studies are shifting the target to a global scale. Due to the accuracy whereby the calculation of the impact indicators deals with and structures the life cycle methods, opportunities to compare studies developed by different authors are quite rare and hard to find. Hence the need to find a simple, intuitive and flexible scheme to combine some of the most useful results of the bibliographical studies, in a comparative outline of different technological solutions, which can support the decision-making phase through a rough assessment. PMID:26563232

  9. Robust Sampled-Data Control for Vibration Mitigation of Offshore Platforms with Missing Measurements

    OpenAIRE

    Mingjie Cai; Zhengrong Xiang; Hamid Reza Karimi

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a robust sampled-data H∞ control for vibration attenuation of offshore platforms with missing measurements subject to external wave force. It is well known that the phenomena of missing measurements are unavoidable due to various reasons, such as sensor aging and sensor temporal failure, which may degrade the control system performance or even cause instability. For active vibration control of offshore platforms with sampling measurements, to deal with the missing measurem...

  10. Value at Risk: A Standard Tool in Measuring Risk : A Quantitative Study on Stock Portfolio

    OpenAIRE

    Ofe, Hosea; Okah, Peter

    2011-01-01

    The role of risk management has gained momentum in recent years most notably after the recent financial crisis. This thesis uses a quantitative approach to evaluate the theory of value at risk which is considered a benchmark to measure financial risk. The thesis makes use of both parametric and non parametric approaches to evaluate the effectiveness of VAR as a standard tool in measuring risk of stock portfolio. This study uses the normal distribution, student t-distribution, historical simul...

  11. Review of selected state-of-the-art applications of diagnostic measurements for radon-mitigation planning. Report for April 1986-June 1987

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Since late-1984, EPA's AEERL has supported a program to develop and demonstrate radon-mitigation techniques for single-family detached dwellings. As part of the program, projects have been started, directed at developing and demonstrating the use of diagnostic measurements in all phases of the radon-mitigation process. Diagnostic measurements are used to assess: (1) the radon sources strengths, variability, and locations; and, (2) radon transport to the house and its entry and distribution in the house as influenced by environmental, house characteristics, and occupancy factors. The diagnostic measurements reported include: (1) soil-gas grab sampling; (2) communication (air flow or pressure-field extension) tests; (3) whole house infiltration; (4) differential pressure, (5) gamma radiation; and, (6) radon flux. The paper concludes that the above selected diagnostic measurements were especially useful in characterizing houses with indoor radon problems attributable to soil-gas-borne radon that may be amenable to mitigation through the use of subslab ventilation

  12. Contingent Liabilities Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Bachmair, Fritz Florian

    2016-01-01

    Sovereign credit guarantees and government on-lending can catalyze private sector investment and fulfill specific policy objectives. However, contingent liabilities stemming from guarantees and contingent assets stemming from on-lending expose governments to risk. Prudent risk management, including risk analysis and measurement, can help identify and mitigate these risks. This paper propos...

  13. Slope Stability Analysis and Mitigation Measures in the Area of the Sighişoara Medieval Citadel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George-Cătălin Silvaş

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The Sighişoara Medieval Citadel has a very big importance to the cultural, architectural and historical heritage of Romania. The citadel is situated on the Fortress Hill and it is the only inhabited fortress in Romania. But underneath the beauty of the Citadel lies some problems that only the inhabitants and the authorities know. These problems consist in the presence of the slope instability phenomenon. Throughout the years the slopes of the Fortress Hill, because of a series of factors, became instable. Thus landslides occurred that affected the Citadel fortress walls. There are still some areas of the walls that have never been reconstructed yet. So a slope stability analysis shall show if the slope instability phenomenon is still active and the mitigation measures recommended will stop the activity of this phenomenon.

  14. Cost effectiveness of CO2 mitigation in transport. An outlook and comparison to cost effectiveness of measures in other sectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kampman, B.; De Bruyn, S.; Den Boer, E.

    2006-04-15

    The European Conference of Ministers of Transport (ECMT) is currently writing a report on carbon emission reductions in the transport sector. To support this study, CE Delft was asked to write a background report on cost effectiveness of measures to reduce CO2 emissions in the transport sector. In this report, various technical mitigation options in the transport sector are analyzed: improved fuel economy of cars, biofuels and hydrogen. The report concludes that studies on this topic are not always in agreement. Several studies find that efficiency measures in the transport sector can be more cost effective than measures in other sectors, whereas other studies disagree. Regarding biofuels, the report concludes that biomass use in power stations is more favourable from a cost effectiveness point of view. New biofuels are being developed that are expected to perform better. It is furthermore concluded that there are only very few studies available that address the issue of cost effectiveness of measures across sectors. Even data on the cost effectiveness of measures within the transport sector is scarce.

  15. VAR Methodology Used for Exchange Risk Measurement and Prevention

    OpenAIRE

    Florentina Balu; Ion Stancu

    2006-01-01

    In this article we discuss one of the modern risk measuring techniques Value-at-Risk (VaR). Currently central banks in major money centers, under the auspices of the BIS Basle Committee, adopt the VaR system to evaluate the market risk of their s