WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk mitigation measures

  1. Social and ethical perspectives of landslide risk mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalsnes, Bjørn; Vangelsten, Bjørn V.

    2015-04-01

    Landslide risk may be mitigated by use of a wide range of measures. Mitigation and prevention options may include (1) structural measures to reduce the frequency, severity or exposure to the hazard, (2) non-structural measures, such as land-use planning and early warning systems, to reduce the hazard frequency and consequences, and (3) measures to pool and transfer the risks. In a given situation the appropriate system of mitigation measures may be a combination of various types of measures, both structural and non-structural. In the process of choosing mitigation measures for a given landslide risk situation, the role of the geoscientist is normally to propose possible mitigation measures on basis of the risk level and technical feasibility. Social and ethical perspectives are often neglected in this process. However, awareness of the need to consider social as well as ethical issues in the design and management of mitigating landslide risk is rising. There is a growing understanding that technical experts acting alone cannot determine what will be considered the appropriate set of mitigation and prevention measures. Issues such as environment versus development, questions of acceptable risk, who bears the risks and benefits, and who makes the decisions, also need to be addressed. Policymakers and stakeholders engaged in solving environmental risk problems are increasingly recognising that traditional expert-based decision-making processes are insufficient. This paper analyse the process of choosing appropriate mitigation measures to mitigate landslide risk from a social and ethical perspective, considering technical, cultural, economical, environmental and political elements. The paper focus on stakeholder involvement in the decision making process, and shows how making strategies for risk communication is a key for a successful process. The study is supported by case study examples from Norway and Italy. In the Italian case study, three different risk mitigation options was presented to the local community. The options were based on a thorough stakeholder involvement process ending up in three different views on how to deal with the landslide risk situation: i) protect lives and properties (hierarchical) ; ii) careful stewardship of the mountains (egalitarian); and iii) rational individual choice (individualist).

  2. Risk mitigation measures: An important aspect of the environmental risk assessment of pharmaceuticals

    OpenAIRE

    Markus Liebig; Carolin Floeter; Thorsten Hahn; Wolfgang Koch; Andrea Wenzel; Jörg Römbke

    2014-01-01

    Within EU marketing authorization procedures of human and veterinary medicinal products (HMP and VMP), an environmental risk assessment (ERA) has to be performed. In the event that an unacceptable environmental risk is identified, risk mitigation measures (RMM) shall be applied in order to reduce environmental exposure to the pharmaceutical. Within the authorization procedures of HMP, no RMM have been applied so far, except for specific precautions for the disposal of the unused medicinal pro...

  3. CONTRACTUAL RISKS IN THE NEW ZEALAND CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY: ANALYSIS AND MITIGATION MEASURES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasper Mbachu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available While tendering for jobs, a contractor is expected to analyse the various risks in each prospective project and price them appropriately. Contingencies are included in the tender price to cater for the various risks based on their impacts on the project targets and profit margin. Currently in New Zealand (NZ, there is little or no information on the various contractual risks and their mitigation measures. This has led to contractors over compensating or under compensating for risks with costly consequences. This study aimed to establish priority contractual risks in the NZ construction industry, and their mitigation measures. The research was based on a questionnaire survey of consultants and contractors. Descriptive statistics and multi-attribute techniques were used in the data analysis. Results showed 21 risk factors which were segregated into 6 broad categories in diminishing levels of significance as follows: Site conditions, main contractor, pricing, subcontractor, external and client- related risks. Putting tags and conditions to risky price items in the tender bids, and transferring the risks onto other parties were analysed as the 2 most effective out of the 5 key risk mitigation measures identified. Being cautious of the priority risks and application of the identified effective risk mitigation measures could guide contractors and the project team to more appropriately budget for and respond to risks, thereby ensuring more satisfactory project outcomes.

  4. Risk Mitigation Measures: An Important Aspect of the Environmental Risk Assessment of Pharmaceuticals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Liebig

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Within EU marketing authorization procedures of human and veterinary medicinal products (HMP and VMP, an environmental risk assessment (ERA has to be performed. In the event that an unacceptable environmental risk is identified, risk mitigation measures (RMM shall be applied in order to reduce environmental exposure to the pharmaceutical. Within the authorization procedures of HMP, no RMM have been applied so far, except for specific precautions for the disposal of the unused medicinal product or waste materials. For VMP, a limited number of RMM do exist. The aim of this study was to develop consistent and efficient RMM. Therefore, existing RMM were compiled from a summary of product characteristics of authorized pharmaceuticals, and new RMM were developed and evaluated. Based on the results, appropriate RMM were applied within the authorization procedures of medicinal products. For HMP, except for the existing precautions for disposal, no further reasonable measures could be developed. For VMP, two specific precautions for disposal and 17 specific precautions for use in animals were proposed as RMM.

  5. Screening risk areas for sediment and phosphorus losses to improve placement of mitigation measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villa, Ana; Djodjic, Faruk; Bergström, Lars; Kyllmar, Katarina

    2015-11-01

    Identification of vulnerable arable areas to phosphorus (P) losses is needed to effectively implement mitigation measures. Indicators for source (soil test P, STP), potential mobilization by erosion (soil dispersion), and transport (unit-stream power length-slope, LS) risks were used to screen the vulnerability to suspended solids (SS) and P losses in two contrasting catchments regarding topography, soil textural distribution, and STP. Soils in the first catchment ranged from loamy sand to clay loam, while clay soils were dominant in the second catchment. Long-term SS and total P losses were higher in the second catchment in spite of significantly lower topsoil STP. A higher proportion of areas in the second catchment were identified with higher risk due to the significantly higher risk of overland flow generation (LS) and a significantly higher mobilization risk in the soil dispersion laboratory tests. A simple screening method was presented to improve the placement of mitigation measures. PMID:26115755

  6. The design of risk mitigation measures for several large tailings dams in Ontario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clelland, Lawrence; Noack, Greg; Viles, Keith [Klohn Crippen Berger Ltd, Subbury, (Canada); Donato, Randy; Ross, Trevor [Vale, Sudbury, (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    Vale Inco recently commissioned a risk assessment study on the main dams in the Sudbury central area. The risk assessment included a desktop review of the historical record, subsurface investigations, flood routing analysis, stability analysis and development of a failure modes and effects analyses table for the dams under review. This paper presented an overview of the design of risk mitigation measures at four of the perimeter dams located near the town of Copper Cliff. The present paper comprised a review of the existing stability of the project dams, which indicated several significant issues, including potential for overtopping in the event of a PMF IDF, previous piping related issues and seismic stability issues. remedial measures were designed to reduce risks associated with the identified issues and generally comprised the construction of a new spillway within the P area and stabilising buttresses for the P area project dams.

  7. A methodological frame for assessing benzene induced leukemia risk mitigation due to policy measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The study relies on the development of a methodology for assessing the determinants that comprise the overall leukemia risk due to benzene exposure and how these are affected by outdoor and indoor air quality regulation. An integrated modeling environment was constructed comprising traffic emissions, dispersion models, human exposure models and a coupled internal dose/biology-based dose–response risk assessment model, in order to assess the benzene imposed leukemia risk, as much as the impact of traffic fleet renewal and smoking banning to these levels. Regarding traffic fleet renewal, several “what if” scenarios were tested. The detailed full-chain methodology was applied in a South-Eastern European urban setting in Greece and a limited version of the methodology in Helsinki. Non-smoking population runs an average risk equal to 4.1 · 10?5 compared to 23.4 · 10?5 for smokers. The estimated lifetime risk for the examined occupational groups was higher than the one estimated for the general public by 10–20%. Active smoking constitutes a dominant parameter for benzene-attributable leukemia risk, much stronger than any related activity, occupational or not. From the assessment of mitigation policies it was found that the associated leukemia risk in the optimum traffic fleet scenario could be reduced by up to 85% for non-smokers and up to 8% for smokers. On the contrary, smoking banning provided smaller gains for (7% for non-smokers, 1% for smokers), while for Helsinki, smoking policies were found to be more efficient than traffic fleet renewal. The methodology proposed above provides a general framework for assessing aggregated exposure and the consequent leukemia risk from benzene (incorporating mechanistic data), capturing exposure and internal dosimetry dynamics, translating changes in exposure determinants to actual changes in population risk, providing a valuable tool for risk management evaluation and consequently to policy support. - Highlights: ? A comprehensive exposure analysis is greatly facilitated by the thorough use of measurement data and modeling tools. ? Incorporation of internal dose metrics contributes to significant refinement of exposure assessment. ? Similar community policies have completely different effect with respect to different countries/cities

  8. A methodological frame for assessing benzene induced leukemia risk mitigation due to policy measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karakitsios, Spyros P. [Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Chemical Engineering, 54124 Thessaloniki (Greece); Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis A., E-mail: denis@eng.auth.gr [Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Chemical Engineering, 54124 Thessaloniki (Greece); Centre for Research and Technology Hellas (CE.R.T.H.), 57001, Thessaloniki (Greece); Gotti, Alberto [Centre for Research and Technology Hellas (CE.R.T.H.), 57001, Thessaloniki (Greece); Kassomenos, Pavlos A. [University of Ioannina, Department of Physics, Laboratory of Meteorology, GR-45110 Ioannina (Greece); Pilidis, Georgios A. [University of Ioannina, Department of Biological Appl. and Technologies, GR-45110 Ioannina (Greece)

    2013-01-15

    The study relies on the development of a methodology for assessing the determinants that comprise the overall leukemia risk due to benzene exposure and how these are affected by outdoor and indoor air quality regulation. An integrated modeling environment was constructed comprising traffic emissions, dispersion models, human exposure models and a coupled internal dose/biology-based dose–response risk assessment model, in order to assess the benzene imposed leukemia risk, as much as the impact of traffic fleet renewal and smoking banning to these levels. Regarding traffic fleet renewal, several “what if” scenarios were tested. The detailed full-chain methodology was applied in a South-Eastern European urban setting in Greece and a limited version of the methodology in Helsinki. Non-smoking population runs an average risk equal to 4.1 · 10{sup ?5} compared to 23.4 · 10{sup ?5} for smokers. The estimated lifetime risk for the examined occupational groups was higher than the one estimated for the general public by 10–20%. Active smoking constitutes a dominant parameter for benzene-attributable leukemia risk, much stronger than any related activity, occupational or not. From the assessment of mitigation policies it was found that the associated leukemia risk in the optimum traffic fleet scenario could be reduced by up to 85% for non-smokers and up to 8% for smokers. On the contrary, smoking banning provided smaller gains for (7% for non-smokers, 1% for smokers), while for Helsinki, smoking policies were found to be more efficient than traffic fleet renewal. The methodology proposed above provides a general framework for assessing aggregated exposure and the consequent leukemia risk from benzene (incorporating mechanistic data), capturing exposure and internal dosimetry dynamics, translating changes in exposure determinants to actual changes in population risk, providing a valuable tool for risk management evaluation and consequently to policy support. - Highlights: ? A comprehensive exposure analysis is greatly facilitated by the thorough use of measurement data and modeling tools. ? Incorporation of internal dose metrics contributes to significant refinement of exposure assessment. ? Similar community policies have completely different effect with respect to different countries/cities.

  9. Disaster risk mitigation – why human rights matter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Kälin

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Existing human rights obligations already require states totake measures to mitigate the risks of natural or man-madedisasters – including those due to climate change – and thusto prevent displacement.

  10. Mitigating risk in computerized bureaucracy

    OpenAIRE

    Samonas, Spyridon

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an important aspect of the pragmatic dimensions of mitigating the risks that stem from computerized bureaucracy, and thereby, preserving the organizational integrity of a firm. A case study is used to provide valuable insights into the mechanics of such mitigation. The case refers to the problematic implementation and use of a computerized reservation system in a large budget hotel in London, United Kingdom. Following the empirical findings, Ciborra’s notion...

  11. Landslides risk mitigation along lifelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capparelli, G.; Versace, P.; Artese, G.; Costanzo, S.; Corsonello, P.; Di Massa, G.; Mendicino, G.; Maletta, D.; Leone, S.; Muto, F.; Senatore, A.; Troncone, A.; Conte, E.; Galletta, D.

    2012-04-01

    The paper describes an integrated, innovative and efficient solution to manage risk issues associated to landslides interfering with infrastructures. The research project was submitted for financial support in the framework of the Multi -regional Operational Programme 2007-13: Research and Competitiveness funded by the Ministry of Research (MIUR) and co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund. The project is aimed to developing and demonstrating an integrated system of monitoring, early warning and mitigation of landslides risk. The final goal is to timely identify potentially dangerous landslides, and to activate all needed impact mitigation measures, including the information delivery. The essential components of the system include monitoring arrays, telecommunication networks and scenario simulation models, assisted by a data acquisition and processing centre, and a traffic control centres. Upon integration, the system will be experimentally validated and demonstrated over ca. 200 km of three highway sections, crossing the regions of Campania, Basilicata, Calabria and Sicily. Progress in the state of art is represented by the developments in the field of environmental monitoring and in the mathematical modeling of landslides and by the development of services for traffic management. The approach to the problem corresponds to a "systemic logics" where each developed component foresees different interchangeable technological solutions to maximize the operational flexibility. The final system may be configured as a simple to complex structure, including different configurations to deal with different scenarios. Specifically, six different monitoring systems will be realized: three "point" systems, made up of a network of locally measuring sensors, and three "area" systems to remotely measure the displacements of large areas. Each network will be fully integrated and connected to a unique data transmission system. Standardized and shared procedures for the identification of risk scenarios will be developed, concerning the surveys to be carried out, the procedures for each type of on-site testing and guidelines and dynamic templates for presentations of results, such as highway risk maps e.g. The setting up of data acquisition and processing centre and traffic control centre are the core of the integrated system. The DAC (data acquisition center, newly designed) will acquire and process data varying in intensity, dimensions, characteristics and information content. The Traffic Control Center (TCC) is meant to integrate the scientific and the management aspects of hydrological risk monitoring and early warning. The overall system is expected to benefit of the development of new, advanced mathematical models on landslide triggers and propagation. Triggering models will be empirical or hydrological, represented by simple empirical relationships, obtained by linking the antecedent rainfall and the landslide time occurrence, and complete models identified through more complex expressions that take into account different components as the specific site conditions, the mechanical, hydraulic and physical properties of soils and slopes, the local seepage conditions and their contribution to soil strength. The industrial partners of the University of Calabria are Autostrade Tech, Strago and TD Group, with the Universities of Firenze and Catania acting research Partners.

  12. Model-based mitigation of availability risks

    OpenAIRE

    Zambon, Emmanuele; Bolzoni, Damiano; Etalle, Sandro; Salvato, Marco

    2007-01-01

    The assessment and mitigation of risks related to the availability of the IT infrastructure is becoming increasingly important in modern organizations. Unfortunately, present standards for Risk Assessment and Mitigation show limitations when evaluating and mitigating availability risks. This is due to the fact that they do not fully consider the dependencies between the constituents of an IT infrastructure that are paramount in large enterprises. These dependencies make the technical problem ...

  13. Urban Policies and Earthquake Risk Mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper aims at proposing some considerations about some recent experiences of research carried out on the theme of earthquake risk mitigation and combining policies and actions of mitigation with urban development strategies. The objective was to go beyond the classical methodological approach aiming at defining a 'technical' evaluation of the earthquake risk through a procedure which can correlate the three 'components' of danger, exposure and vulnerability. These researches experiment, in terms of methodology and application, with a new category of interpretation and strategy: the so-called Struttura Urbana Minima (Minimum urban structure).Actually, the introduction of the Struttura Urbana Minima establishes a different approach towards the theme of safety in the field of earthquake risk, since it leads to a wider viewpoint, combining the building aspect of the issue with the purely urban one, involving not only town planning, but also social and managerial implications.In this sense the constituent logic of these researches is strengthened by two fundamental issues:- The social awareness of earthquake;- The inclusion of mitigation policies in the ordinary strategies for town and territory management. Three main aspects of the first point, that is of the 'social awareness of earthquake', characterize this issue and demand to be considered within a prevention policy:- The central role of the risk as a social production,- The central role of the local community consent,- The central role of the local community capability to planTherefore, consent, considered not only as acceptance, but above all as participation in the elaboration and implementation of choices, plays a crucial role in the wider issue of prevention policies.As far as the second point is concerned, the inclusion of preventive mitigation policies in ordinary strategies for the town and territory management demands the identification of criteria of choice and priorities of intervention and, as a consequence, the opportunity to promote an approach to the theme of mitigation policies realized through strategic principles and systemic logics able to shift the problem from the building to the town. The critical aspects of this theme are tied to three main issues:- The sharing of the way of interpreting town planning,- The integration of multiple objectives in one intervention tool,- The measures which can be adopted for an effective prevention policy.The above-mentioned elements have inspired these researches experimented on Calabrian towns.In particular, in this paper the experience carried out on Reggio Calabria is proposed. Its cultural roots derive from the principles and criteria experimented in small Calabrian towns, but it modifies them according to the complexity of the urban settlement, introducing also some experimental concepts and methodological approaches

  14. Mission design considerations for nuclear risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stancati, Mike; Collins, John

    1993-01-01

    Strategies for the mitigation of the nuclear risk associated with two specific mission operations are discussed. These operations are the safe return of nuclear thermal propulsion reactors to earth orbit and the disposal of lunar/Mars spacecraft reactors.

  15. Information security risk assessment, aggregation, and mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    VOSS, T; Lenstra, Arjen K.

    2004-01-01

    As part of their compliance process with the Basel 2 operational risk management requirements, banks must define how they deal with information security risk management. In this paper we describe work in progress on a new quantitative model to assess and aggregate information security risks that is currently under development for deployment. We show how to find a risk mitigation strategy that is optimal with respect to the model used and the available budget.

  16. Coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures of hydro-meteorological risks: the importance of establishing a link between emergency management and spatial planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prenger-Berninghoff, Kathrin; Cortes, V. Juliette; Aye, Zar Chi; Sprague, Teresa

    2013-04-01

    The management of natural hazards involves, as generally known, the four stages of the risk management cycle: Prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. Accordingly, the mitigation of disasters can be performed in terms of short-term and long-term purposes. Whereas emergency management or civil protection helps to strengthen a community's capacity to be better prepared for natural hazards and to better respond in case a disaster strikes, thus addressing the short-term perspective, spatial planning serves long-term planning goals and can therefore implement long-term prevention measures. A purposefully applied risk mitigation strategy requires coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures and thus an effective coordination of emergency management and spatial planning. Several actors are involved in risk management and should consequently be linked throughout the whole risk management cycle. However, these actors, partly because of a historically fragmented administrative system, are hardly connected to each other, with spatial planning only having a negligible role compared to other actors1, a problem to which Young (2002) referred to as the "problem of interplay". In contrast, information transfer and decision-taking happen at the same time and are not coordinated among different actors. This applies to the prevention and preparedness phase as well as to the recovery phase, which basically constitutes the prevention phase for the next disaster2. Since investments in both risk prevention and emergency preparedness and response are considered necessary, a better coordination of the two approaches is required. In this regard, Decision Support Systems (DSS) can be useful in order to provide support in the decision-making aspect of risk management. The research work currently undertaken examines the problem of interplay in the four case study areas of the Marie Curie ITN, CHANGES3. The link between different risk management actors will be explored by means of exploratory questionnaires and interviews with government agencies, local administrations, community and research organizations on each study site. First results provided will address the general role of spatial planning in risk management. Additionally, preliminary observations are made in regard to the coordination of emergency preparedness and long-term spatial planning activities. The observations consider that integration facilitates proactive strategies that aim at preventing disaster occurrence and promote interaction between involved parties. Finally, consideration is given to the potential use of a DSS tool to cover both aspects of spatial planning and emergency management in the risk management cycle.

  17. Consequence of climate mitigation on the risk of hunger.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Tanaka, Akemi; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko

    2015-06-16

    Climate change and mitigation measures have three major impacts on food consumption and the risk of hunger: (1) changes in crop yields caused by climate change; (2) competition for land between food crops and energy crops driven by the use of bioenergy; and (3) costs associated with mitigation measures taken to meet an emissions reduction target that keeps the global average temperature increase to 2 °C. In this study, we combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and we quantified the three impacts on risk of hunger through 2050 based on the uncertainty range associated with 12 climate models and one economic and demographic scenario. The strong mitigation measures aimed at attaining the 2 °C target reduce the negative effects of climate change on yields but have large negative impacts on the risk of hunger due to mitigation costs in the low-income countries. We also found that in a strongly carbon-constrained world, the change in food consumption resulting from mitigation measures depends more strongly on the change in incomes than the change in food prices. PMID:25982947

  18. Evaluating the effectiveness of flood damage mitigation measures by the application of propensity score matching

    OpenAIRE

    Hudson, P.; Botzen, W. J. W.; Kreibich, H.; Bubeck, P.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

    2014-01-01

    The employment of damage mitigation measures (DMMs) by individuals is an important component of integrated flood risk management. In order to promote efficient damage mitigation measures, accurate estimates of their damage mitigation potential are required. That is, for correctly assessing the damage mitigation measures' effectiveness from survey data, one needs to control for sources of bias. A biased estimate can occur if risk characteristics differ between individuals who...

  19. Evaluating the effectiveness of flood damage mitigation measures by the application of Propensity Score Matching

    OpenAIRE

    Hudson, P.; Botzen, W. J. W.; Kreibich, H.; Bubeck, P.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

    2014-01-01

    The employment of damage mitigation measures by individuals is an important component of integrated flood risk management. In order to promote efficient damage mitigation measures, accurate estimates of their damage mitigation potential are required. That is, for correctly assessing the damage mitigation measures' effectiveness from survey data, one needs to control for sources of bias. A biased estimate can occur if risk characteristics differ between indiv...

  20. A web-based tool for ranking landslide mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacasse, S.; Vaciago, G.; Choi, Y. J.; Kalsnes, B.

    2012-04-01

    As part of the research done in the European project SafeLand "Living with landslide risk in Europe: Assessment, effects of global change, and risk management strategies", a compendium of structural and non-structural mitigation measures for different landslide types in Europe was prepared, and the measures were assembled into a web-based "toolbox". Emphasis was placed on providing a rational and flexible framework applicable to existing and future mitigation measures. The purpose of web-based toolbox is to assist decision-making and to guide the user in the choice of the most appropriate mitigation measures. The mitigation measures were classified into three categories, describing whether the mitigation measures addressed the landslide hazard, the vulnerability or the elements at risk themselves. The measures considered include structural measures reducing hazard and non-structural mitigation measures, reducing either the hazard or the consequences (or vulnerability and exposure of elements at risk). The structural measures include surface protection and control of surface erosion; measures modifying the slope geometry and/or mass distribution; measures modifying surface water regime - surface drainage; measures mo¬difying groundwater regime - deep drainage; measured modifying the mechanical charac¬teristics of unstable mass; transfer of loads to more competent strata; retaining structures (to modify slope geometry and/or to transfer stress to compe¬tent layer); deviating the path of landslide debris; dissipating the energy of debris flows; and arresting and containing landslide debris or rock fall. The non-structural mitigation measures, reducing either the hazard or the consequences: early warning systems; restricting or discouraging construction activities; increasing resistance or coping capacity of elements at risk; relocation of elements at risk; sharing of risk through insurance. The measures are described in the toolbox with fact sheets providing a brief description, guidance on design, schematic details, practical examples and references for each mitigation measure. Each of the measures was given a score on its ability and applicability for different types of landslides and boundary conditions, and a decision support matrix was established. The web-based toolbox organizes the information in the compendium and provides an algorithm to rank the measures on the basis of the decision support matrix, and on the basis of the risk level estimated at the site. The toolbox includes a description of the case under study and offers a simplified option for estimating the hazard and risk levels of the slide at hand. The user selects the mitigation measures to be included in the assessment. The toolbox then ranks, with built-in assessment factors and weights and/or with user-defined ranking values and criteria, the mitigation measures included in the analysis. The toolbox includes data management, e.g. saving data half-way in an analysis, returning to an earlier case, looking up prepared examples or looking up information on mitigation measures. The toolbox also generates a report and has user-forum and help features. The presentation will give an overview of the mitigation measures considered and examples of the use of the toolbox, and will take the attendees through the application of the toolbox.

  1. Mitigation of foreign Direct investment risk and hedging

    OpenAIRE

    Wahl, Jack E.; Broll, Udo

    2009-01-01

    Instruments of risk mitigation play an important role in managing country risk within the foreign direct investment (FDI) decision. Our study assesses country risk by state-dependent preferences and introduces futures contracts as a tool of risk mitigation. We show that country risk assessments related to foreign direct investment do not matter if the multinational firm enters currency futures markets. Besides currency risk, multinationals cross-hedge country risk via the derivatives market. ...

  2. Disease management mitigates risk of pathogen transmission from maricultured salmonids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jones, Simon R. M.; Bruno, David W.

    2015-01-01

    Open marine net pens facilitate virus and sea lice transfer, occasionally leading to infections and outbreaks of disease in farmed salmon. A review of 3 salmon pathogens (infectious salmon anaemia virus [ISAV], salmon alphavirus [SAV] and the salmon louse Lepeophtheirus salmonis) shows that increased risk of exposure to neighbouring farms is inversely related to distance from and directly related to biomass at the source of infection. Epidemiological techniques integrating data from oceanography, diagnostics and pathogen shedding rates and viability contribute to improved understanding of pathogen transmission pathways among farms and permit the designation of areas of risk associated with sources of infection. Occupation of an area of risk may increase the likelihood of exposure, infection and disease among susceptible fish. Disease mitigation in mariculture occurs at 2 scales: area-based (coordinated stocking, harvesting and fallowing) and farm-based (vaccination, early pathogen detection, veterinary prescribed treatments and depopulation or early harvest in the event of viral disease). Collectively, implementation of mitigation measures results in virus disease outbreaks of shorter duration with lower mortality and therefore reduces the likelihood of pathogen transmission. In contrast, the mitigation of sea lice transmission is less likely to be effective in some areas due to the loss of parasite sensitivity to therapeutants and to dissemination of larval lice when parasites occur below management thresholds. For wild populations, risk of pathogen spillback is estimated from farm-based epidemiological data; however, validation, particularly for ISAV and SAV, is required using direct surveillance.

  3. Bioenergy as a Mitigation Measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dass, P.; Brovkin, V.; Müller, C.; Cramer, W.

    2011-12-01

    Numerous studies have shown that bioenergy, being one of the renewable energies with the lowest costs, is expected to play an important role in the near future as climate change mitigation measure. Current practices of converting crop products such as carbohydrates or plant oils to ethanol or biodiesel have limited capabilities to curb emission. Moreover, they compete with food production for the most fertile lands. Thus, second generation bioenergy technologies are being developed to process lignocellulosic plant materials from fast growing tree and grass species. A number of deforestation experiments using Earth System models have shown that in the mid- to high latitudes, deforested surface albedo strongly increases in presence of snow. This biophysical effect causes cooling, which could dominate over the biogeochemical warming effect because of the carbon emissions due to deforestation. In order to find out the global bioenergy potential of extensive plantations in the mid- to high latitudes, and the resultant savings in carbon emissions, we use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL run at a high spatial resolution of 0.5°. It represents both natural and managed ecosystems, including the cultivation of cellulosic energy crops. LPJmL is run with 21st century projections of climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration based on the IPCC-SRES business as usual or A2 scenario. Latitudes above 45° in both hemispheres are deforested and planted with crops having the highest bioenergy return for the respective pixels of the model. The rest of the Earth has natural vegetation. The agricultural management intensity values are used such that it results in the best approximation for 1999 - 2003 national yields of wheat and maize as reported by FAOSTAT 2009. Four different scenarios of land management are used ranging from an idealistic or best case scenario, where all limitations of soil and terrain properties are managed to the worst case scenario where none of these properties are managed. Simulated bioenergy potentials from 1901 to 2098 correspond to a significant percentage of the global energy demand and thus could potentially bring about considerable savings in carbon emissions. These potentials will be reported and compared to the energy demand. Analysis of their sensitivities to different land management scenarios will be presented as well.

  4. Risk perception and volcanic hazard mitigation: Individual and social perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paton, Douglas; Smith, Leigh; Daly, Michele; Johnston, David

    2008-05-01

    This paper discusses how people's interpretation of their experience of volcanic hazards and public volcanic hazard education programs influences their risk perception and whether or not they adopt measures that can mitigate their risk. Drawing on four studies of volcanic risk perception and preparedness, the paper first examines why experiencing volcanic hazards need not necessarily motivate people to prepare for future volcanic crises. This work introduces how effective risk communication requires communities and civic agencies to play complementary roles in the risk management process. Next, the findings of a study evaluating the effectiveness of a public volcanic hazard education program introduce the important role that social interaction amongst community members plays in risk management. Building on the conclusions of these studies, a model that depicts preparing as a social process is developed and tested. The model predicts that it is the quality of the relationships between people, communities and civic agencies that determines whether people adopt measures that can reduce their risk from volcanic hazard consequences. The implications of the model for conceptualizing and delivering volcanic hazard public education programs in ways that accommodate these relationships is discussed.

  5. Natural Hazards Monitoring and Risk Mitigation

    International Science & Technology Center (ISTC)

    Principles of Monitoring of Hazardous Geodynamic and Glaciohydrometeorological Processes in the Areas of Strategically Important for Economics of Georgia Objects and Recommendations on Hazard Mitigation

  6. Influence of behavioral biases on the assessment of multi-hazard risks and the implementation of multi-hazard risks mitigation measures: case study of multi-hazard cyclone shelters in Tamil Nadu, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komendantova, Nadejda; Patt, Anthony

    2013-04-01

    In December 2004, a multiple hazards event devastated the Tamil Nadu province of India. The Sumatra -Andaman earthquake with a magnitude of Mw=9.1-9.3 caused the Indian Ocean tsunami with wave heights up to 30 m, and flooding that reached up to two kilometers inland in some locations. More than 7,790 persons were killed in the province of Tamil Nadu, with 206 in its capital Chennai. The time lag between the earthquake and the tsunami's arrival in India was over an hour, therefore, if a suitable early warning system existed, a proper means of communicating the warning and shelters existing for people would exist, than while this would not have prevented the destruction of infrastructure, several thousands of human lives would have been saved. India has over forty years of experience in the construction of cyclone shelters. With additional efforts and investment, these shelters could be adapted to other types of hazards such as tsunamis and flooding, as well as the construction of new multi-hazard cyclone shelters (MPCS). It would therefore be possible to mitigate one hazard such as cyclones by the construction of a network of shelters while at the same time adapting these shelters to also deal with, for example, tsunamis, with some additional investment. In this historical case, the failure to consider multiple hazards caused significant human losses. The current paper investigates the patterns of the national decision-making process with regards to multiple hazards mitigation measures and how the presence of behavioral and cognitive biases influenced the perceptions of the probabilities of multiple hazards and the choices made for their mitigation by the national decision-makers. Our methodology was based on the analysis of existing reports from national and international organizations as well as available scientific literature on behavioral economics and natural hazards. The results identified several biases in the national decision-making process when the construction of cyclone shelters was being undertaken. The availability heuristics caused a perception of low probability of tsunami following an earthquake, as the last large similar event happened over a hundred years ago. Another led to a situation when decisions were taken on the basis of experience and not statistical evidence, namely, experience showed that the so-called "Ring of Fire" generates underground earthquakes and tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean. This knowledge made decision-makers to neglect the numerical estimations about probability of underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean even though seismologists were warning about probability of a large underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean. The bounded rationality bias led to misperception of signals from the early warning center in the Pacific Ocean. The resulting limited concern resulted in risk mitigation measures that considered cyclone risks, but much less about tsunami. Under loss aversion considerations, the decision-makers perceived the losses connected with the necessary additional investment as being greater than benefits from mitigating a less probable hazard.

  7. Phishing Techniques and Mitigating the Associated Security Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc A. Rader

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Organizations invest heavily in technicalcontrols for their Information Assurance (IA infrastructure.These technical controls mitigate and reduce the risk of damage caused by outsider attacks. Mostorganizations rely on training to mitigate and reduce risk of non-technical attacks such as socialengineering. Organizations lump IA training into small modules that personnel typically rush throughbecause the training programs lack enough depth and creativity to keep a trainee engaged. The key toretaining knowledge is making the information memorable. This paper describes common and emergingattack vectors and how to lower and mitigate the associated risks.

  8. Effectiveness of landslide risk mitigation strategies in Shihmen Watershed, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chun-Yi; Chen, Su-Chin

    2015-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to establish landslide risk analysis procedures that can be used to analyze landslide risk in a watershed scale and to assess the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. Landslide risk analysis encompassed the landslide hazard, the vulnerability of elements at risk, and community resilience capacity. First, landslide spatial probability, landslide temporal probability, and landslide area probability were joined to estimate the probability of landslides with an area exceeding a certain threshold in each slope unit. Second, the expected property and life losses were both analyzed in vulnerability analysis. Different elements at risk were assigned corresponding values, and then used in conjunction with the vulnerabilities to carry out quantitative analysis. Third, the resilience capacity of different communities was calculated based on the scores obtained through community checklists and the weights of individual items, including "the participation experience of disaster prevention drill," "real-time monitoring mechanism of community," "autonomous monitoring of residents," and "disaster prevention volunteer." Finally, the landslide probabilities, vulnerability analysis results, and resilience capacities were combined to assess landslide risk in Shihmen Watershed. In addition, the risks before and after the implementation of non-structural disaster prevention strategies were compared to determine the benefits of various strategies, and subsequently benefit-cost analysis was performed. Communities with high benefit-cost ratios included Hualing, Yisheng, Siouluan, and Gaoyi. The watershed as a whole had a benefit-cost ratio far greater than 1, indicating that the effectiveness of strategies was greater than the investment cost, and these measures were thus cost-effective. The results of factor sensitivity analysis revealed that changes in vulnerability and mortality rates would increase the uncertainty of risk, and that raise in annual interest rates or reduction in life cycle of measures would decrease the benefit-cost ratio. However, with regard to effectiveness analysis, these changes did not reverse the cost-effective inference.

  9. Phishing Techniques and Mitigating the Associated Security Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Marc A. Rader; Rahman, Syed M

    2013-01-01

    Organizations invest heavily in technicalcontrols for their Information Assurance (IA) infrastructure.These technical controls mitigate and reduce the risk of damage caused by outsider attacks. Mostorganizations rely on training to mitigate and reduce risk of non-technical attacks such as socialengineering. Organizations lump IA training into small modules that personnel typically rush throughbecause the training programs lack enough depth and creativity to keep a trainee engaged. The key tor...

  10. Assessment of measures to mitigate concrete shrinkage

    OpenAIRE

    Nunes, Júlio; Camões, Aires, ed. lit

    2013-01-01

    Concrete can have high tendency to shrink over time and this can cause its cracking and thus jeopardize its durability and increase significantly maintenance, repair or rehabilitation costs. In this context, this study intends to evaluate measures to mitigate concrete shrinkage through the incorporation of different percentages of fly ash (FA), shrinkage reducing admixtures (SRA) or superabsorbent polymers (SAP). For this, one has developed an experimental campaign on mortar specimens that co...

  11. Mitigation measures and programs in Hungary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Molnar, S. [Systemexpert Consulting Ltd., Budapest (Hungary)

    1996-12-31

    In Hungary there are four main governmental programs, which may result in a decrease of emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs): (1) National program of energy efficiency improvement and energy conservation, (2) Afforestation program, (3) Volatile organic compounds (VOC) emission reduction program, and (4) Program to reduce the use of ozone depleting substances. These ambitious programs were launched in the beginning of the 90`s, but they have been slowed down because of budgetary problems. The comprehensive action plan for mitigation of GHG emissions should be based on these ongoing programs. These programs should be expanded by further measures and programs in order to fulfill the requirements of the FCCC. In the next sections the results and prospects of the above mentioned programs will be summarized. Also the results of the mitigation study supported by the U.S. Country Studies Program are included.

  12. Risk Assessment of Arsenic Mitigation Options in Bangladesh

    OpenAIRE

    Howard, Guy; Ahmed, M. Feroze; Shamsuddin, Abu Jafar; Mahmud, Shamsul Gafur; Deere, Daniel

    2006-01-01

    The provision of alternative water sources is the principal arsenic mitigation strategy in Bangladesh, but can lead to risk substitution. A study of arsenic mitigation options was undertaken to assess water quality and sanitary condition and to estimate the burden of disease associated with each technology in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Dugwells and pond-sand filters showed heavy microbial contamination in both dry and monsoon seasons, and the estimated burden of disease was high....

  13. A review of risk perceptions and other factors that influence flood mitigation behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bubeck, P; Botzen, W J W; Aerts, J C J H

    2012-09-01

    In flood risk management, a shift can be observed toward more integrated approaches that increasingly address the role of private households in implementing flood damage mitigation measures. This has resulted in a growing number of studies into the supposed positive relationship between individual flood risk perceptions and mitigation behavior. Our literature review shows, however, that, actually, this relationship is hardly observed in empirical studies. Two arguments are provided as an explanation. First, on the basis of protection motivation theory, a theoretical framework is discussed suggesting that individuals' high-risk perceptions need to be accompanied by coping appraisal to result in a protective response. Second, it is pointed out that possible feedback from already-adopted mitigation measures on risk perceptions has hardly been considered by current studies. In addition, we also provide a review of factors that drive precautionary behavior other than risk perceptions. It is found that factors such as coping appraisal are consistently related to mitigation behavior. We conclude, therefore, that the current focus on risk perceptions as a means to explain and promote private flood mitigation behavior is not supported on either theoretical or empirical grounds. PMID:22394258

  14. Tradable measure of risk

    OpenAIRE

    Pospisil, Libor; Vecer, Jan; XU, MINGXIN

    2007-01-01

    The main idea of this paper is to introduce Tradeable Measures of Risk as an objective and model independent way of measuring risk. The present methods of risk measurement, such as the standard Value-at-Risk supported by BASEL II, are based on subjective assumptions of future returns. Therefore two different models applied to the same portfolio can lead to different values of a risk measure. In order to achieve an objective measurement of risk, we introduce a concept of {...

  15. Planning Tools For Seismic Risk Mitigation. Rules And Applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recently, Italian urban planning research in the field of seismic risk mitigation are renewing. In particular, it promotes strategies that integrate urban rehabilitation and aseismic objectives, and also politicizes that are directed to revitalizes urban systems, coupling physical renewal and socio-economic development.In Italy the first law concerning planning for seismic mitigation dates back 1974, the law n. 64 ''Regulation for buildings with particular rules for the seismic areas'' where the rules for buildings in seismic areas concerning also the local hazard. This law, in fact, forced the municipalities to acquire, during the formation of the plans, a preventive opinion of compatibility between planning conditions and geomorphology conditions of the territory. From this date the conviction that the seismic risk must be considered inside the territorial planning especially in terms of strategies of mitigation has been strengthened.The town planners have started to take an interest in seismic risk in the [80]s when the Irpinia's earthquake took place. The researches developed after this earthquake have established that the principal cause of the collapse of buildings are due to from the wrong location of urban settlements (on slopes or crowns) After Irpinia's earthquake the first researches on seismic risk mitigation, in particular on the aspects related to the hazards and to the urban vulnerability were made

  16. Risk Mitigation for Managing On-Orbit Anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    La, Jim

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews strategies for managing risk mitigation that occur with anomalies in on-orbit spacecraft. It reviews the risks associated with mission operations, a diagram of the method used to manage undesirable events that occur which is a closed loop fault analysis and until corrective action is successful. It also reviews the fish bone diagram which is used if greater detail is required and aids in eliminating possible failure factors.

  17. Mitigating Hardware Cyber-Security Risks in Error Correcting Decoders

    OpenAIRE

    Hemati, Saied

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates hardware cyber-security risks associated with channel decoders, which are commonly acquired as a black box in semiconductor industry. It is shown that channel decoders are potentially attractive targets for hardware cyber-security attacks and can be easily embedded with malicious blocks. Several attack scenarios are considered in this work and suitable methods for mitigating the risks are proposed. These methods are based on randomizing the inputs of ...

  18. Peaking of world oil production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hirsch, R.L. (SAIC); Bezdek, Roger (MISI); Wendling, Robert (MISI)

    2005-02-01

    The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.... The purpose of this analysis was to identify the critical issues surrounding the occurrence and mitigation of world oil production peaking. We simplified many of the complexities in an effort to provide a transparent analysis. Nevertheless, our study is neither simple nor brief. We recognize that when oil prices escalate dramatically, there will be demand and economic impacts that will alter our simplified assumptions. Consideration of those feedbacks will be a daunting task but one that should be undertaken. Our aim in this study is to-- • Summarize the difficulties of oil production forecasting; • Identify the fundamentals that show why world oil production peaking is such a unique challenge; • Show why mitigation will take a decade or more of intense effort; • Examine the potential economic effects of oil peaking; • Describe what might be accomplished under three example mitigation scenarios. • Stimulate serious discussion of the problem, suggest more definitive studies, and engender interest in timely action to mitigate its impacts.

  19. Early Benefits of Mitigation in Risk of Regional Climate Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciavarella, Andrew; Stott, Peter; Lowe, Jason

    2015-04-01

    Large differences in climate outcomes are projected over the coming century depending on whether greenhouse gas emissions continue on a business as usual path or are substantially reduced following an aggressive mitigation strategy. However, it has previously been claimed that it will take many decades for there to be any significant difference between paths of aggressive mitigation and business as usual with the emergence of differences only seen towards the middle of the century. Here we show that important differences in our exposure to risk of climate extremes in many land regions emerges much more quickly. Without substantial mitigation, in many regions of the world, extreme (one in 20-year) seasonal, regional near surface air temperatures are found to have become more than twice as likely within only 15 years (i.e. by 2030). Therefore our exposure to climate risk is reduced substantially and rapidly with aggressive mitigation. This demonstrates that the benefits of mitigation are realised rapidly and it is not necessary to wait until the middle of the century as has previously been claimed.

  20. Mitigating Environmental Risk Through Environmental Management Accounting?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naufil Naseer

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Environmental accounting system is relatively a new field for environmental reporting and performance evaluation of a firm, particularly in terms of social costs that the organization incur on the society. These costs represent an organization`s impacts on the environment and society, which may not be covered under normal accounting practices. The study with the help of an example tries to answer how environmental risk, an important aspect of environmental management can be addressed in environment.

  1. Mitigating Environmental Risk Through Environmental Management Accounting?

    OpenAIRE

    Naufil Naseer

    2005-01-01

    Environmental accounting system is relatively a new field for environmental reporting and performance evaluation of a firm, particularly in terms of social costs that the organization incur on the society. These costs represent an organization`s impacts on the environment and society, which may not be covered under normal accounting practices. The study with the help of an example tries to answer how environmental risk, an important aspect of environmental management can be addressed in envir...

  2. A Review on Risk Mitigation of IT Governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noraini ChePa

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk Mitigation (RM is one of the important activities in risk management of IT governance. In IT governance project, IT risk mitigation emphasizes taking action early in a project to prevent the occurrence of undesired events or to reduce the consequences of their occurrence. The essential of RM in IT governance enables enterprise achieving "the new business changes, reduces IT project risks and future investment in IT governance projects. To get clear understanding in regards risk mitigation based on IT governance context, many relevant studies have been reviewed from different issues and aspects. The purpose of this study is to investigate related RM frameworks, models, processes, stakeholder involves and other issues based on a Systematic Literature Review (SLR approach. This study presents the results of the systematic literature reviews on an evident of the RM in IT governance and it issues that need to be catered in the future. The finding of this review indicates that RM requires appropriate consideration to systematically reviewed on it numerous limitations, issues and current implementation.

  3. Land Use Scenario Modeling for Flood Risk Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José I. Barredo

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available It is generally accepted that flood risk has been increasing in Europe in the last decades. Accordingly, it becomes a priority to better understand its drivers and mechanisms. Flood risk is evaluated on the basis of three factors: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. If one of these factors increases, then so does the risk. Land use change models used for ex-ante assessment of spatial trends provide planners with powerful tools for territorial decision making. However, until recently this type of model has been largely neglected in strategic planning for flood risk mitigation. Thus, ex-ante assessment of flood risk is an innovative application of land use change models. The aim of this paper is to propose a flood risk mitigation approach using exposure scenarios. The methodology is applied in the Pordenone province in northern Italy. In the past 50 years Pordenone has suffered several heavy floods, the disastrous consequences of which demonstrated the vulnerability of the area. Results of this study confirm that the main driving force of increased flood risk is found in new urban developments in flood-prone areas.

  4. Mitigating Epidemics through Mobile Micro-measures

    CERN Document Server

    Kafsi, Mohamed; Maystre, Lucas; Yartseva, Lyudmila; Grossglauser, Matthias; Thiran, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    Epidemics of infectious diseases are among the largest threats to the quality of life and the economic and social well-being of developing countries. The arsenal of measures against such epidemics is well-established, but costly and insufficient to mitigate their impact. In this paper, we argue that mobile technology adds a powerful weapon to this arsenal, because (a) mobile devices endow us with the unprecedented ability to measure and model the detailed behavioral patterns of the affected population, and (b) they enable the delivery of personalized behavioral recommendations to individuals in real time. We combine these two ideas and propose several strategies to generate such recommendations from mobility patterns. The goal of each strategy is a large reduction in infections, with a small impact on the normal course of daily life. We evaluate these strategies over the Orange D4D dataset and show the benefit of mobile micro-measures, even if only a fraction of the population participates. These preliminary ...

  5. Strategy Guideline: Mitigation of Retrofit Risk Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berman, M.; Smith, P.; Porse, E.

    2012-12-01

    The Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI) is currently developing strategies designed to promote and achieve increased energy savings and promote upgrades in the residential retrofit sector. These strategies are targeted to retrofit program managers, retrofit contractors, policy makers, academic researchers, and non-governmental organizations. This report focuses on four key areas to promote home energy upgrades: fostering accurate energy savings projections; understanding consumer perceptions for energy savings; measuring energy savings, and ensuring quality control for retrofit installations.

  6. Strategy Guideline. Mitigation of Retrofit Risk Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berman, M. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), Davis, CA (United States); Smith, P. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), Davis, CA (United States); Porse, E. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), Davis, CA (United States)

    2012-12-01

    The Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI) Building America team is currently developing strategies designed to promote and achieve increased energy savings and promote upgrades in the residential retrofit sector. These strategies are targeted to retrofit program managers, retrofit contractors, policy makers, academic researchers, and non-governmental organizations. This report focuses on four key areas to promote home energy upgrades: fostering accurate energy savings projections; understanding consumer perceptions for energy savings; measuring energy savings, and ensuring quality control for retrofit installations.

  7. Analysing the external supply chain risk driver competitiveness: a risk mitigation framework and business continuity plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blos, Mauricio F; Wee, Hui-Ming; Yang, Joshua

    2010-11-01

    Innovation challenges for handling supply chain risks have become one of the most important drivers in business competitiveness and differentiation. This study analyses competitiveness at the external supply chain level as a driver of risks and provides a framework for mitigating these risks. The mitigation framework, also called the supply chain continuity framework, provides insight into six stages of the business continuity planning (BCP) process life cycle (risk mitigation management, business impact analysis, supply continuity strategy development, supply continuity plan development, supply continuity plan testing and supply continuity plan maintenance), together with the operational constructs: customer service, inventory management, flexibility, time to market, ordering cycle time and quality. The purpose of the BCP process life cycle and operational constructs working together is to emphasise the way in which a supply chain can deal with disruption risks and, consequently, bring competitive advantage. Future research will consider the new risk scenarios and analyse the consequences to promote the improvement of supply chain resilience. PMID:21177223

  8. Risk Mitigation in Triadic Network Configurations within a Servitized Context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raja, Jawwad; Roehrich, Jens

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: This paper examines risk mitigation for a servitizing organisation and its supply network configuration. This is an area of research that has not been adequately explored to date within a servitization context. In particular, the paper examines triadic configurations using an agency perspective. Design/methodology/approach: An exploratory case study of a truck manufacturer and its supply network is conducted over a two year period. Data consists predominantly of semi-structured intervie...

  9. Risk Mitigation in Triadic Network Configurations within a Servitized Context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raja, Jawwad; Roehrich, Jens

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: This paper examines risk mitigation for a servitizing organisation and its supply network configuration. This is an area of research that has not been adequately explored to date within a servitization context. In particular, the paper examines triadic configurations using an agency perspective. Design/methodology/approach: An exploratory case study of a truck manufacturer and its supply network is conducted over a two year period. Data consists predominantly of semi-structured interviews, observations and workshops with the case organisation. Findings: The findings of the study indicate that behavior-based controls, combined with information, are a key contributory factor in mitigating risk within triadic network structures. Research limitations/implications: This research is limited to one in-depth case study, within the truck industry. Whilst this represents an appropriate approach given the exploratory nature of the study, there is a need for further empirical research across different industries. Originality/value: Theoretical insights are gleaned through the application of agency theory as a lens to understand risk mitigation within supply networks within the context of servitization.

  10. FOLLOW-UP RADON MEASUREMENTS IN 14 MITIGATED SCHOOLS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The report gives results of a determination of the long-term performance of radon mitigation systems installed in U. S. EPA research schools: radon measurements were conducted in 14 schools that had been mitigated between 1988 and 1991. The measurements were made between Februar...

  11. 50 CFR 665.812 - Sea turtle take mitigation measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ...2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Sea turtle take mitigation measures. 665.812...Pelagic Fisheries § 665.812 Sea turtle take mitigation measures. (a...section must be used according to the sea turtle handling requirements set forth in...

  12. Interventionist and participatory approaches to flood risk mitigation decisions: two case studies in the Italian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchizza, C.; Del Bianco, D.; Pellizzoni, L.; Scolobig, A.

    2012-04-01

    Flood risk mitigation decisions pose key challenges not only from a technical but also from a social, economic and political viewpoint. There is an increasing demand for improving the quality of these processes by including different stakeholders - and especially by involving the local residents in the decision making process - and by guaranteeing the actual improvement of local social capacities during and after the decision making. In this paper we analyse two case studies of flood risk mitigation decisions, Malborghetto-Valbruna and Vipiteno-Sterzing, in the Italian Alps. In both of them, mitigation works have been completed or planned, yet following completely different approaches especially in terms of responses of residents and involvement of local authorities. In Malborghetto-Valbruna an 'interventionist' approach (i.e. leaning towards a top down/technocratic decision process) was used to make decisions after the flood event that affected the municipality in the year 2003. In Vipiteno-Sterzing, a 'participatory' approach (i.e. leaning towards a bottom-up/inclusive decision process) was applied: decisions about risk mitigation measures were made by submitting different projects to the local citizens and by involving them in the decision making process. The analysis of the two case studies presented in the paper is grounded on the results of two research projects. Structured and in-depth interviews, as well as questionnaire surveys were used to explore residents' and local authorities' orientations toward flood risk mitigation. Also a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) involving key stakeholders was used to better understand the characteristics of the communities and their perception of flood risk mitigation issues. The results highlight some key differences between interventionist and participatory approaches, together with some implications of their adoption in the local context. Strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches, as well as key challenges for the future are also discussed.

  13. Cost-benefit analysis of alternative LNG vapor-mitigation measures. Topical report, September 14, 1987-January 15, 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A generalized methodology is presented for comparing the costs and safety benefits of alternative hazard mitigation measures for a large LNG vapor release. The procedure involves the quantification of the risk to the public before and after the application of LNG vapor mitigation measures. In the study, risk was defined as the product of the annual accident frequency, estimated from a fault tree analysis, and the severity of the accident. Severity was measured in terms of the number of people who may be exposed to 2.5% or higher concentration. The ratios of the annual costs of the various mitigation measures to their safety benefits (as determined by the differences between the risk before and after mitigation measure implementation), were then used to identify the most cost-effective approaches to vapor cloud mitigation

  14. Risk mapping and tsunami mitigation in Gunungkidul area, Yogyakarta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mardiatno, Djati; Sunarto, WF, Lies Rahayu; Saptadi, Gatot; Ayuningtyas, Efrinda Ari

    2015-04-01

    Coastal area of Gunungkidul Regency is one of the areas prone to tsunami in Indonesia. In contrary, currently, this area is very intensively developed as one of the favourite tourism destination. This paper is aimed at explaining tsunami risk and a mitigation type in Gunungkidul Area, Yogyakarta. Digital elevation model (DEM) and coastal morphology were used to generate tsunami hazard map. Vulnerability was analysed by utilizing land use data. Information from previous studies (e.g. from GTZ) were also considered for analysis. Tsunami risk was classified into three classes, i.e. high risk, medium risk, and low risk and visualized in the form of tsunami risk map. Tsunami risk map is a tool which can be used as disaster reduction instrument, such as for evacuation routes planning. Based on the preliminary results of this research, it is clear that tsunami risk in this area is varied depend on the morphological condition of the location. There are five coastal area selected as the location, i.e. Ngrenehan, Baron, Sepanjang, PulangSawal, and Sadeng. All locations have the high risk zone to tsunami, especially for bay area. Evacuation routes were generated for all locations by considering the local landscape condition. There are several differences of evacuation ways for each location.

  15. Measuring Investors' Risk Appetite

    OpenAIRE

    Gai, Prasanna; Vause, Nicholas

    2005-01-01

    This paper proposes a method for measuring investor risk appetite based on the variation in the ratio of risk-neutral to subjective probabilities used by investors in evaluating possible future returns to an asset. Unlike other indicators advanced in the literature, our measure of market sentiment distinguishes risk appetite from risk aversion, and is reported in levels rather than changes. Implementation of the approach yields results that respond to crises and other major economic events in...

  16. Mitigation technologies and measures in energy sector of Kazakstan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pilifosova, O.; Danchuk, D.; Temertekov, T. [and others

    1996-12-31

    An important commitment in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is to conduct mitigation analysis and to communicate climate change measures and policies. In major part reducing CO{sub 2} as well as the other greenhouse gas emissions in Kazakstan, can be a side-product of measures addressed to increasing energy efficiency. Since such measures are very important for the national economy, mitigation strategies in the energy sector of Kazakstan are directly connected with the general national strategy of the energy sector development. This paper outlines the main measures and technologies in energy sector of Kazakstan which can lead to GHG emissions reduction and presents the results of current mitigation assessment. The mitigation analysis is addressed to energy production sector. A baseline and six mitigation scenarios were developed to evaluate the most attractive mitigation options, focusing on specific technologies which have been already included in sustainable energy programs. According to the baseline projection, Kazakstan`s CO{sub 2} emissions will not exceed their 1990 level until 2005. The potential for CO{sub 2} emission reduction is estimated to be about 11 % of the base line emission level by the end of considered period (in 2020). The main mitigation options in the energy production sector in terms of mitigation potential and technical and economical feasibility include rehabilitation of thermal power plants aimed to increasing efficiency, use of nuclear energy and further expansion in the use of hydro energy based on small hydroelectric power plants.

  17. Managing U.S. climate risk through mitigation: Insights from the American Climate Prospectus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, R. E., III; Hsiang, S. M.; Houser, T.; Larsen, K.; Rasmussen, D. M., Jr.; Jina, A.; Rising, J.; Delgado, M.; Mohan, S.; Muir-Wood, R.; Wilson, P. S.

    2014-12-01

    The American Climate Prospectus (ACP), the technical analysis underlying the Risky Business project, quantitatively assessed the economic risks posed to the United States by six categories of climate change impacts: crop yield, energy demand, coastal storm damage, criminal activity, labor productivity, and mortality [1]. At a national level, measured by impact on gross domestic product, increased mortality and decreased labor productivity pose the large risks, followed by increased energy demand and coastal damages. Changes in crop yield and crime have smaller impacts. The ACP was not intended to conduct a benefit-cost analysis of climate change mitigation. It assessed the economic consequences of future impacts on an economy with a structure equivalent to that of the current economy, not accounting for socio-economic development and adaptation, and did not assess the cost of mitigation. One of its primary goals was to inform adaptation decisions that are conventionally considered 'endogenous' in economic analyses of climate change. Nonetheless, its results provide insight into the potential of mitigation to manage climate risk. Differences between RCP 8.5 (moderately-high business-as-usual emissions), RCP 4.5 (moderate mitigation) and RCP 2.6 (extremely strong mitigation) are not apparent until mid-century and become significant only late in the century. For all impacts except coastal damages, mitigation significantly reduces uncertainty in late-century impact estimates. Nationally, mitigation significantly and monotonically reduces median projected labor productivity losses and violent crime. Switching from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 also significantly reduces median projections of mortality and energy demand, but the domestic value to the U.S. of further mitigation to RCP 2.6 is less clear. The marginal benefits decline in part because some regions of the country (especially the Northwest) may experience increased crop yields, reduced mortality, and reduced energy demand under all RCPs. Because of the slow response time of sea level to change in emissions, the coastal risk reduction in the current century from mitigation is least clear. References: [1] T. Houser et al. (2014), American Climate Prospectus, www.climateprospectus.org.

  18. Optimum cooling of data centers application of risk assessment and mitigation techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Dai, Jun; Das, Diganta; Pecht, Michael G

    2014-01-01

    This book provides data center designers and operators with methods by which to assess and mitigate the risks associated with utilization of optimum cooling solutions. The goal is to provide readers with sufficient knowledge to implement measures such as free air cooling or direct liquid immersion cooling properly, or combination of existing and emerging cooling technologies in data centers, base stations, and server farms. This book also: Discusses various telecommunication infrastructures, with an emphasis on data centers and base stations Covers the most commonly known energy and power management techniques, as well as emerging cooling solutions for data centers Describes the risks to the electronic equipment fitted in these installations and the methods of risk mitigation Devotes  a particular focus to an up-to-date review of the emerging cooling methods (such as free air cooling and direct liquid immersion cooling) and tools and best practices for designers, technology developers, installation operators...

  19. Measuring Model Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Breuer, Thomas; Csiszar, Imre

    2013-01-01

    We propose to interpret distribution model risk as sensitivity of expected loss to changes in the risk factor distribution, and to measure the distribution model risk of a portfolio by the maximum expected loss over a set of plausible distributions defined in terms of some divergence from an estimated distribution. The divergence may be relative entropy, a Bregman distance, or an $f$-divergence. We give formulas for the calculation of distribution model risk and explicitly d...

  20. Precision pointing control for SPICA: risk mitigation phase study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitani, Shinji; Kawakatsu, Yasuhiro; Sakai, Shin-ichiro; Murakami, Naomi; Yamawaki, Toshihiko; Mizutani, Tadahito; Komatsu, Keiji; Kataza, Hirokazu; Enya, Keigo; Nakagawa, Takao

    2014-08-01

    SPICA (Space Infrared Telescope for Cosmology and Astrophysics) is an astronomical mission optimized for mid- and far-infrared astronomy with a 3-m class telescope which is cryogenically cooled to be less than 6 K. The SPICA mechanical cooling system is indispensable for the mission but, generates micro-vibrations which could affect to the pointing stability performances. Activities to be undertaken during a risk mitigation phase (RMP) include consolidation of micro-vibration control design for the satellite, as well as a number of breadboarding activities centered on technologies that are critical to the success of the mission. This paper presents the RMP activity results on the microvibration control design.

  1. Risks and risks mitigations in the supply chain of mangosteen: a case study

    OpenAIRE

    Astuti, R.; Arkeman, M.M.Y.; Poerwanto, R.; Meuwissen, M.P.M.

    2013-01-01

    Mangosteen (Garcinia mangostana L.) is the highly demanded fruit for export commodity from Indonesia. The biggest mangosteen production center in Indonesia is West Java Province. The development of the mangosteen supply chain in Indonesia, particularly in West Java Province is heavily affected by uncertain potential risks for the chain. This paper identifies potential risks of the supply chain and studies the interrelationships between strategies for mitigating those risks. Fuzzy Anal...

  2. TSUNAMI RISK MITIGATION THROUGH STRATEGIC LAND-USE PLANNING AND EVACUATION PROCEDURES FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN SRI LANKA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Woharika Kaumudi Weerasinghe

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Safety measures against the future disaster risk are considered as the main aspect of post disaster reconstructions. The majority of post-disaster villages/settlements and due projects on Sri Lankan coastline are apparently lacking behind the proper safety measures and adequate evacuation procedures. Therefore the immediate necessities of proper safety measures have to be emphasized in order to mitigate future tsunami risks. This paper introduces a number of post disaster coastal villages/settlements, which are in future coastline hazard risk, mainly in a future tsunami event. These include their location risk, land uses and housing designs defects and shortcomings of other safety measures. Furthermore few tsunami risk mitigation measures through land use planning strategies, which could be applied more easily in community level, are introduced. In addition to those the strategic development methods of functional networks of evacuation routes and shelters in different topographies are examined.

  3. Fish habitat mitigation measures for hydrotechnical projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In recent years, the identification and mitigation of environmental impacts of hydrotechnical projects, particularly on fish and fish habitats, have become a major component of project planning and design. Potential impacts to fish and fish habitat may include increased fish mortality, decreased species diversity, and loss or decreases in fish production due to loss of habitat or alteration of its suitability. These impacts arise from flooding of riverine habitat, alteration of flow quantity and distribution, changes in morphology, and alteration of water quality, including suspended sediments, temperature, dissolved oxygen, and mercury. The results of a study for the Canadian Federal Department of Fisheries and Oceans Central and Arctic Region, examining fish habitat mitigation techniques for their applicability to hydrotechnical projects in Canada are summarized. The requirements for achievement and verification of the no net loss policy for a project are discussed. 10 refs., 2 tabs

  4. Vrancea earthquakes. Courses for specific actions to mitigate seismic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Earthquakes in the Carpathian-Pannonian region are confined to the crust, except the Vrancea zone, where earthquakes with focal depth down to 200 Km occur. For example, the ruptured area migrated from 150 km to 180 km (November 10,1940, Mw = 7.7) from 90 km to 110 km (March 4, 1977, Mw 7.4), from 130 km to 150 km (August 30, 1986, Mw = 7.1) and from 70 km to 90 km (May 30, 1990, Mw = 6.9) depth. The depth interval between 110 km and 130 km remains not ruptured since 1802, October 26, when it was the strongest earthquake occurred in this part of Central Europe. The magnitude is assumed to be Mw = 7.9 - 8.0 and this depth interval is a natural candidate for the next strong Vrancea event. While no country in the world is entirely safe, the lack of capacity to limit the impact of seismic hazards remains a major burden for all countries and while the world has witnessed an exponential increase in human and material losses due to natural disasters given by earthquakes, there is a need to reverse trends in seismic risk mitigation to future events. Main courses for specific actions to mitigate the seismic risk given by strong deep Vrancea earthquakes should be considered as key for development actions: - Early warning system for industrial facilities. Early warning is more than a technological instrument to detect, monitor and submit warnings. It should become part of a management information system for decision-making in the context of national institutional frameworks for disaster management and part of national and local strategies and programmers for risk mitigation; - Prediction program of Vrancea strong earthquakes of short and long term; - Hazard seismic map of Romania. The wrong assessment of the seismic hazard can lead to dramatic situations as those from Bucharest or Kobe. Before the 1977 Vrancea earthquake, the city of Bucharest was designed to intensity I = VII (MMI) and the real intensity was I = IX1/2-X (MMI); - Seismic microzonation of large populated cities. There are zones in Bucharest which have fundamental periods of the soil and geological structures very different and during August 30, 1986 Vrancea earthquake the variations of the recorded peak accelerations were from simple to triple ones; - Shake map. This shake map now under completion will allow us rapidly portray, in real time, the extent of shaking during of earthquake in a simplified form suitable for immediate post-earthquake decision-making; - Seismic tomography of dams for avoiding catastrophes. There are applications of seismic tomography and in general of seismic imaging like methods of investigation for mitigation of earthquake effects. (authors)

  5. Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John W. Collins

    2011-09-01

    Planning and decision making amidst programmatic and technological risks represent significant challenges for projects. This presentation addresses the four step risk-assessment process needed to determine clear path forward to mature needed technology and design, license, and construct advanced nuclear power plants, which have never been built before, including Small Modular Reactors. This four step process has been carefully applied to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. STEP 1 - Risk Identification Risks are identified, collected, and categorized as technical risks, programmatic risks, and project risks, each of which result in cost and schedule impacts if realized. These include risks arising from the use of technologies not previously demonstrated in a relevant application. These risks include normal and accident scenarios which the SMR could experience including events that cause the disablement of engineered safety features (typically documented in Phenomena Identification Ranking Tables (PIRT) as produced with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and design needs which must be addressed to further detail the design. Product - Project Risk Register contained in a database with sorting, presentation, rollup, risk work off functionality similar to the NGNP Risk Management System . STEP 2 - Risk Quantification The risks contained in the risk register are then scored for probability of occurrence and severity of consequence, if realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap. Product - Risk Handling Strategy. STEP 4 - Residual Risk Work off The risk handling strategy is entered into the Project Risk Allocation Tool (PRAT) to analyze each task for its ability to reduce risk. The result is risk-informed task prioritization. The risk handling strategy is captured in the Risk Management System, a relational database that provides conventional database utility, including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. The tool's Hierarchy Tree allows visualization and analyses of complex relationships between risks, risk mitigation tasks, design needs, and PIRTs. Product - Project Risk Allocation Tool and Risk Management System which depict project plan to reduce risk and current progress in doing so.

  6. Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Planning and decision making amidst programmatic and technological risks represent significant challenges for projects. This presentation addresses the four step risk-assessment process needed to determine clear path forward to mature needed technology and design, license, and construct advanced nuclear power plants, which have never been built before, including Small Modular Reactors. This four step process has been carefully applied to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. STEP 1 - Risk Identification Risks are identified, collected, and categorized as technical risks, programmatic risks, and project risks, each of which result in cost and schedule impacts if realized. These include risks arising from the use of technologies not previously demonstrated in a relevant application. These risks include normal and accident scenarios which the SMR could experience including events that cause the disablement of engineered safety features (typically documented in Phenomena Identification Ranking Tables (PIRT) as produced with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and design needs which must be addressed to further detail the design. Product - Project Risk Register contained in a database with sorting, presentation, rollup, risk work off functionality similar to the NGNP Risk Management System . STEP 2 - Risk Quantification The risks contained in the risk register are then scored for probability of occurrence and severity of consequence, if realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap. Product - Risk Handling Strategy. STEP 4 - Residual Risk Work off The risk handling strategy is entered into the Project Risk Allocation Tool (PRAT) to analyze each task for its ability to reduce risk. The result is risk-informed task prioritization. The risk handling strategy is captured in the Risk Management System, a relational database that provides conventional database utility, including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. The tool's Hierarchy Tree allows visualization and analyses of complex relationships between risks, risk mitigation tasks, design needs, and PIRTs. Product - Project Risk Allocation Tool and Risk Management System which depict project plan to reduce risk and current progress in doing so.

  7. QUALITY BASED CREDIT RISK MITIGATION FOR BANK PERFORMANCE ENHANCEMENT: EMPIRIC STUDY IN AN INDONESIAN BANK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nini Avieni

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available There is an ongoing controversy over whether risk mitigation inherently enhances business performance. The aim of this paper is to settle the controversy, and provide insights roles of risk mitigation on corporate strategy. Author examined implication of Lean Six Sigma at credit risk mitigation system at one of Indonesia banks.  Based on responses from 112 credit analysts and database of business units performance indicators, this research showed a relationship between the implication of Lean Six Sigma at credit risk mitigation system and unit bank's performance. Quality Based Credit Risk Mitigation which is credit risk mitigation using Lean Six Sigma system will enhance business units’ performance through improvement in credit quality and credit process efficiency.

  8. Optimal CO2 mitigation under damage risk valuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crost, Benjamin; Traeger, Christian P.

    2014-07-01

    The current generation has to set mitigation policy under uncertainty about the economic consequences of climate change. This uncertainty governs both the level of damages for a given level of warming, and the steepness of the increase in damage per warming degree. Our model of climate and the economy is a stochastic version of a model employed in assessing the US Social Cost of Carbon (DICE). We compute the optimal carbon taxes and CO2 abatement levels that maximize welfare from economic consumption over time under different risk states. In accordance with recent developments in finance, we separate preferences about time and risk to improve the model's calibration of welfare to observed market interest. We show that introducing the modern asset pricing framework doubles optimal abatement and carbon taxation. Uncertainty over the level of damages at a given temperature increase can result in a slight increase of optimal emissions as compared to using expected damages. In contrast, uncertainty governing the steepness of the damage increase in temperature results in a substantially higher level of optimal mitigation.

  9. Mitigation of Volcanic Risk: The COSMO-SkyMed Contribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sacco, Patrizia; Daraio, Maria Girolamo; Battagliere, Maria Libera; Coletta, Alessandro

    2015-05-01

    The Italian Space Agency (ASI) promotes Earth Observation (EO) applications related to themes such as the prediction, monitoring, management and mitigation of natural and anthropogenic hazards. The approach generally followed is the development and demonstration of prototype services, using currently available data from space missions, in particular the COSMO-SkyMed (Constellation of Small Satellites for Mediterranean basin observation) mission, which represents the largest Italian investment in Space System for EO and thanks to which Italy plays a key role worldwide. Projects funded by ASI provide the convergence of various national industry expertise, research and institutional reference users. In this context a significant example is represented by the ASI Pilot Projects, recently concluded, dealing with various thematic, such as volcanoes. In this paper a special focus will be addressed to the volcanic risk management and the contribution provided in this field by COSMO-SkyMed satellite constellation during the last years. A comprehensive overview of the various national and international projects using COSMO-SkyMed data for the volcanic risk mitigation will be given, highlighting the Italian contribution provided worldwide in this operational framework.

  10. Five Years On: Tsunami Risk Mitigation and Disaster Management Initiatives in Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayasekera Wijetunge, J.

    2009-12-01

    The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 caused unprecedented loss of lives and damage to property in Sri Lanka with over 35,000 killed, 20,000 injured and about 100,000 dwellings and other buildings destroyed or damaged. This catastrophic event also exposed lack of disaster preparedness at the time in Sri Lanka and underscored the need for pro-active disaster planning and risk mitigation. Given the apparently low probability of recurrence of destructive ocean-wide tsunami similar to that in 2004, Sri Lanka preferred an integrated approach to tsunami risk mitigation consisting primarily of non-structural measures, namely, public education and awareness; early warning and evacuation; hazard and risk mapping; and necessary institutional and legislative initiatives. The Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System currently under development, though by no means foolproof, will help improve Sri Lanka’s tsunami early warning capability and reliability. Yet, the more difficult and challenging task will be the dissemination of such tsunami warnings fast and effectively to the vulnerable communities so as to enable their evacuation to safe locations. The Disaster Management Centre of the Government of Sri Lanka has been coordinating all activities related to disaster risk mitigation in the country. Their efforts have indeed been commendable, particularly in setting up of institutional mechanisms to better coordinate risk mitigation activities and in strengthening, streamlining and directing the capabilities and resources of relevant governmental and non-governmental organizations towards a common goal of disaster risk reduction through a multi-hazard approach. The university system in Sri Lanka also has made many contributions towards disaster mitigation through capacity building initiatives, hazard mapping and research. On the whole, Sri Lanka has taken significant steps towards disaster risk reduction since the tsunami devastation in 2004. The country now has a sound disaster risk management institutional framework underpinned by necessary legislative provisions. A comprehensive and holistic strategy has been formulated to unify, prioritize and coordinate the disaster risk management activities that have been planned to be implemented in the next 5-10 years towards building a safer Sri Lanka. As a result, we in Sri Lanka are expected to face disasters better than what we were five years back, yet there is a long way to go to make ourselves disaster resilient.

  11. TSUNAMI RISK MITIGATION THROUGH STRATEGIC LAND-USE PLANNING AND EVACUATION PROCEDURES FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN SRI LANKA

    OpenAIRE

    Woharika Kaumudi Weerasinghe; Akihiko Hokugo; Yuko Ikenouchi

    2011-01-01

    Safety measures against the future disaster risk are considered as the main aspect of post disaster reconstructions. The majority of post-disaster villages/settlements and due projects on Sri Lankan coastline are apparently lacking behind the proper safety measures and adequate evacuation procedures. Therefore the immediate necessities of proper safety measures have to be emphasized in order to mitigate future tsunami risks. This paper introduces a number of post disaster coastal villages/set...

  12. How Is Cancer Risk Measured?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... to study who is at risk. How is Cancer Risk Measured? Cancer risk is measured in different ways. The findings from surveys and studies about cancer risk are studied and the results are explained in ...

  13. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS): educating the prescriber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholson, Susan C; Peterson, Janet; Yektashenas, Behin

    2012-02-01

    The US FDA Amendments Act of 2007 was signed into law on 27 September 2007. A provision of this law granted the FDA new powers to enhance drug safety by requiring the pharmaceutical industry to develop Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS). REMS are deemed necessary when a question exists as to whether the benefits of a drug outweigh its risks. REMS constitute a safety plan with several potential components, including a medication guide, a communication plan, elements to ensure safe use and an implementation system to help guide the prescribers, pharmacists and patients. This applies to existing drugs on the market, new drug class="hlt">applications (NDAs), abbreviated NDAs (generics) and biologics licence applications. REMS represent an 'upgrade' from previously required risk minimization action plans, based on the strengthening of FDA powers of authority and enforceability to incur monetary penalties against individuals representing the pharmaceutical industry who fail to comply. For illustrative purposes, we chose the drug romiplostim (Nplate®) to present an REMS, as all components were utilized to help assuage risks associated with the drug. Romiplostim is an FDA-approved drug used to treat thrombocytopenia in patients with chronic immune (idiopathic) thrombocytopenic purpura that has a significant adverse safety profile based on the risk of changes in bone marrow reticulin formation and bone marrow fibroses, and other associated risks. This review of current REMS policy is intended to provide the prescriber with a better understanding of current modalities in FDA-mandated drug safety programmes, which will impact day-to-day healthcare provider practices. PMID:22171604

  14. Essential severe accident mitigation measures for operating and future PWR's

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Severe Accident mitigation measures are a constituent of the safety concept in Europe not only for operating but also for future light water reactors. While operating reactors mainly have been backfitted with such measure, for future reactors Severe Accident mitigation measures already have to be considered in the design phase. Severe Accident measures are considered as the 4th level of defense for future reactors. This difference has consequences also on the kind of measures proposed to be introduced. While in operating plants Severe Accident mitigation measures are considered for further risk reduction, in future reactors an explicit higher level of safety is required resulting in additional design measures. This higher safety level is expressed in the requirement that there must be no need for evacuation of surrounding populations except in the immediate vicinity of the plant and for long-term restrictions with regard to the consumption of locally grown food. Because of the potential hazard posed by radioactive releases to the environment in the event of an Severe Accident situation depends largely on the airborne material in the containment atmosphere and on the containment integrity, new system features to prevent loss of containment integrity have been introduced in the design of the NPP's. For these tasks it has been necessary to develop and qualify new system technologies and implement them finally into NPP's, e.g. like systems for containment atmosphere H2-control, filtered venting, core retention devices and atmosphere sampling. The following systems are introduced for operating as well as for future plants: · The Hydrogen Control System is based on the Passive Autocatalytic Recombiner (PAR) technology. There is no need for any operator actions because of the self-starting feature of the catalyst if hydrogen is released. · In situ Post Accident Sampling System (In situ-PASS) are introduced for the purpose of obtaining realistic information on airborne material in the containment atmosphere, on the conditions of the core and for effective accident management decisions. These new in-situ sampling technology was developed and implemented to avoid the strong deposition errors of iodine and aerosols in conventional pipe extraction systems. The venting system is introduced for operating plants and can also be used for future plants although it is not required for the EPR. The Sliding Pressure Venting System consists mainly of a venturi scrubber unit with integrated high efficient metal fiber filter followed by means for super sonic throttling and operation under the sliding containment pressure conditions. Due to this special design and operation the system dimensions could be kept small in spite of obtaining high retention rates for aerosols of >99.99% and that for molecular iodide is >99.5%. For the EPR additional measures for maintaining the containment integrity are foreseen: · use of highly reliable dedicated valves for depressurization which supplement normal bleed valves to eliminate high pressure RPV failure · use of a core melt retention device for melt stabilization by means of spreading of the melt within a large compartment adjacent to the reactor pit, followed by flooding, quenching and cooling of the melt from the top and via a bottom cooling structure; · use of a dedicated active two-train containment heat removal system which needs to operate not earlier than 12h after start of the accident

  15. IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF STRUCTURAL FLOOD MITIGATION MEASURES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZVIJAKOVA LENKA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the paper is to propose a methodology for assessing water constructions, which will allow impact assessment of water constructions on the environment and hence select the best option for the permission process. The result is “Guideline for environmental impact assessment of flood protection object”, which uses the method of UMRA (universal matrix of risk analysis, which is one of the methods of risk analysis proposed not only to enhance the transparency and sensitivity of the evaluation process, but also to cope with the requirements of the EIA system in the Slovakia and Europe Union.

  16. An integrated approach to risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN threat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    CBRN mass casualty events threat mitigation remains today the highest international priority. Although significant progress has been made, the national security requirements for efforts to combat Weapons of Mass Destruction and Weapons of Mass Disruption will be of the highest national priority in the near future. An integration of a number of approaches is essential in the risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN treat. Preparedness measures and procedures, engineering, science and technology, policy, medical, and emergency response are essential to reduce the threat from the proliferation and use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Improved coordination between international, public and private security entities is also essential task to hopefully prevent the terrorist attacks. In this lecture, it will be presented very important scientific approach to risk assessment of potential use of nuclear, radiological, biological or chemical weapons in terrorist actions. An integrated approach for mitigating the CBRN threat, crisis management and preparedness measures for prevention and reduction of potential consequences, will be presented.(author)

  17. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas; Richardson, Matthew P.

    2012-01-01

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution's contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases with the institution's leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system's loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are ‘taxed’ based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically t...

  18. Cost control and risk mitigation of major projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper and presentation, the four major types of estimates will be discussed, i.e., capacity factored, equipment factored, semi-detailed and detailed. Key relationships between particular portions of estimates will be discussed such as the relationship between direct field labor and indirect field costs. Having set the basis for developing a project's cost through estimating, the paper will then list and discuss the fifteen key steps which must be followed to control the costs of a project. Next, the subject of allowances and contingency will be discussed and defined and the differences between the two will be highlighted. Having established exactly what contingency is, the subject of risk analysis through RANGE estimating will be discussed. The methods used to establish a precise contingency and probability of an over/under run will be discussed. Finally, the paper will discuss the methods by which a project manager, owner or contractor can mitigate risks; that is to eliminate, transfer or minimize their effect

  19. Potential of lactic acid bacteria in aflatoxin risk mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahlberg, Sara H; Joutsjoki, Vesa; Korhonen, Hannu J

    2015-08-17

    Aflatoxins (AF) are ubiquitous mycotoxins contaminating food and feed. Consumption of contaminated food and feed can cause a severe health risk to humans and animals. A novel biological method could reduce the health risks of aflatoxins through inhibiting mold growth and binding aflatoxins. Lactic acid bacteria (LAB) are commonly used in fermented food production. LAB are known to inhibit mold growth and, to some extent, to bind aflatoxins in different matrices. Reduced mold growth and aflatoxin production may be caused by competition for nutrients between bacterial cells and fungi. Most likely, binding of aflatoxins depends on environmental conditions and is strain-specific. Killed bacteria cells possess consistently better binding abilities for aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) than viable cells. Lactobacilli especially are relatively well studied and provide noticeable possibilities in binding of aflatoxin B1 and M1 in food. It seems that binding is reversible and that bound aflatoxins are released later on (Haskard et al., 2001; Peltonen et al., 2001). This literature review suggests that novel biological methods, such as lactic acid bacteria, show potential in mitigating toxic effects of aflatoxins in food and feed. PMID:26001523

  20. Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, F. A.; George, K.; Hu, X.; Kim, M. H.; Nikjoo, H.

    2006-01-01

    Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

  1. Human perception of radon risk and radon mitigation: Some remarks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Radon program in the Czech Republic has a relatively long and rich history. Procedures, which enable to evaluate the risk of radon penetration from the ground, to protect new buildings, to find existing buildings with elevated indoor radon levels and to realise remedial measures in such buildings, have been developed, published and tested. In some cases, the whole system may fail due to psychological or sociological reasons. Three types of problems (conflicts) will be presented: human behaviour affecting measurement results, conflict between individual and 'all-society' points of view, interpretation of radon risk itself. (authors)

  2. Special Issue: Risk Management Challenges: Mitigate the Risk from Natural Hazards

    OpenAIRE

    Douglas Paton

    2011-01-01

    Within minutes of the March 2011 earthquake in Japan, news media provided unprecedented coverage of an unfolding natural catastrophe. Events such as this place natural disasters firmly in the public eye but only for a short time. It falls to the research community to learn the lessons offered by these events and turn them into opportunities for developing more effective risk management and mitigation strategies and identifying the factors that contribute to the vulnerability and resilience of...

  3. GHG emission mitigation measures and technologies in the Czech Republic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tichy, M. [Energy Efficiency Center, Prague (Czech Republic)

    1996-12-31

    The paper presents a short overview of main results in two fields: projection of GHG emission from energy sector in the Czech Republic and assessment of technologies and options for GHG mitigation. The last part presents an overview of measures that were prepared for potential inclusion to the Czech Climate Change Action Plan.

  4. Relevance of Fukushima Nuclear Accident to India: Nuclear Radiation Risk and Interventions to Mitigate Adverse Fallout

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadav Kapil, Varshney Neha, Aslesh OP, Karmakar MG, Pandav Chandrakant S

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The environmental radiation release from Fukushima nuclear power following tsunami in Japan has once again highlighted the omnipotent risk of radiation injury in the today’s world. India is at a real risk from radiation fallout both due to nuclear power plant accidents and nuclear warfare threat. The risk from nuclear radiation accident in India is further increased by the region being endemic for iodine deficiency as adverse effects following nuclear radiation fallout like thyroid cancer is significantly higher in iodine deficient populations .There is need to institute disaster preparedness measures to mitigate the damage in case of a nuclear accident. Interventions to control adverse fallout of nuclear radiation include evacuation, sheltering and food controls as well as iodine prophylaxis

  5. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    2012-01-01

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases with the institution’s leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system’s loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are “taxed” based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically t...

  6. Can marriage education mitigate the risks associated with premarital cohabitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhoades, Galena K; Stanley, Scott M; Markman, Howard J; Allen, Elizabeth S

    2015-06-01

    This study tested whether relationship education (i.e., the Prevention and Relationship Education Program; PREP) can mitigate the risk of having cohabited before making a mutual commitment to marry (i.e., "precommitment cohabitation") for marital distress and divorce. Using data from a study of PREP for married couples in the U.S. Army (N = 662 couples), we found that there was a significant association between precommitment cohabitation and lower marital satisfaction and dedication before random assignment to intervention. After intervention, this precommitment cohabitation effect was only apparent in the control group. Specifically, significant interactions between intervention condition and cohabitation history indicated that for the control group, but not the PREP group, precommitment cohabitation was associated with lower dedication as well as declines in marital satisfaction and increases in negative communication over time. Furthermore, those with precommitment cohabitation were more likely to divorce by the 2-year follow-up only in the control group; there were no differences in divorce based on premarital cohabitation history in the PREP group. These findings are discussed in light of current research on cohabitation and relationship education; potential implications are also considered. PMID:25938709

  7. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases with the institution’s leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system’s loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are “taxed” based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads.

  8. Priority mitigation measures in non-energy sector in Kazakstan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mizina, S.V.; Pilifosova, O.V.; Gossen, E.F.

    1996-12-31

    Fulfilling the Commitments on UN FCCC through the U.S. Country Studies Program, Kazakstan has developed the national GHG Inventory, vulnerability and adaptation assessment and estimated the possibility of mitigation measures in certain sectors. Next step is developing National Climate Change Action Plan. That process includes such major steps as setting priorities in mitigation measures and technologies, their comprehensive evaluation, preparation implementation strategies, developing the procedure of incorporation of the National Action Plan into other development plans and programs. This paper presents programs and measures that can reduce GHG emissions in non-energy sector. Measures in land-use change and forestry, agriculture and coal mining are considered. Current situation in non-energy sector of Kazakstan is discussed. The amount of GHG emissions reduction and cost analysis presented in this paper was developed with the use of IPCC recommendations.

  9. Special Issue: Risk Management Challenges: Mitigate the Risk from Natural Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas Paton

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Within minutes of the March 2011 earthquake in Japan, news media provided unprecedented coverage of an unfolding natural catastrophe. Events such as this place natural disasters firmly in the public eye but only for a short time. It falls to the research community to learn the lessons offered by these events and turn them into opportunities for developing more effective risk management and mitigation strategies and identifying the factors that contribute to the vulnerability and resilience of communities and response and recovery agencies. Disasters such as the Japanese tsunami also highlight the ever-present need for systematic, rigorous research into the risk posed by natural hazards and how these risks can be managed. Of course it is vital to ensure that the findings from such research endeavours are disseminated to those who can use the findings.

  10. Power Outage, Business Continuity and Businesses' Choices of Power Outage Mitigation Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Asgary

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Power outage has been mentioned as one of the most experienced and perceived risks by various types of businesses and organizations. Thus, reducing the impacts of power outage has become a key agenda in business continuity planning. Back-up or stand-by generators are among the most well known measures taken by power consumers to tackle the power outage problem. Approach: A survey was conducted to understand various aspects of power outage and the impacts of power outrage on businesses. In addition a choice experiment method was used to derive businesses? preferences for different power outage mitigation measures that would have a range of prices, space requirements, air and noise pollution as well as mobility attributes using a sample of Canadian businesses located in the . Sample was drawn from businesses operating in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA and surrounding communities in Ontario, Canada. Results: It was found that majority of businesses have experienced and unconvinced by power outage and consider it to be a major risk to their operations. Production loss, data loss, damage to equipment and loss of lighting are the most significant sources for inconveniences caused by the power outages. It was found that a considerable number of businesses have not taken appropriate measures to mitigate this risk. Estimations from the responses revealed that sample businesses had a positive willingness to pay for power outage reduction and that businesses prefer power outage mitigation measures that are least costly, have low levels of air and noise pollution and occupy smaller spaces respectively. Conclusion: An uninterrupted power supply is an important element of business continuity in today?s business world. Although many businesses are not fully prepared against power outages, they are willing to pay for low cost and low pollution power outage mitigation measures.

  11. The role of the Model Validation function to manage and mitigate model risk

    OpenAIRE

    Elices, Alberto

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes the current taxonomy of model risk, ways for its mitigation and management and the importance of the model validation function in collaboration with other departments to design and implement them.

  12. Academy of Program/Project & Engineering Leadership Orbital Debris Management and Risk Mitigation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The NASA Academy of Program/Project & Engineering Leadership (APPEL) is excited to announce the public release of Orbital Debris Management and Risk Mitigation,...

  13. Assessing and mitigating risks of engineering programs with lean management techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fritz, A.; Oehmen, Josef; Rebentisch, E.

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates the use of lean management techniques as a risk mitigation approach for large-scale engineering programs. The key research questions are how lean best practices with the highest risk mitigation potential are identified, how the most relevant lean best practices for a specific program are identified and how the effort for implementation of these lean best practices is estimated. Large-scale engineering programs have as results usually complex technical products or systems ...

  14. Implementation of equity in resource allocation for regional earthquake risk mitigation using two-stage stochastic programming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zolfaghari, Mohammad R; Peyghaleh, Elnaz

    2015-03-01

    This article presents a new methodology to implement the concept of equity in regional earthquake risk mitigation programs using an optimization framework. It presents a framework that could be used by decisionmakers (government and authorities) to structure budget allocation strategy toward different seismic risk mitigation measures, i.e., structural retrofitting for different building structural types in different locations and planning horizons. A two-stage stochastic model is developed here to seek optimal mitigation measures based on minimizing mitigation expenditures, reconstruction expenditures, and especially large losses in highly seismically active countries. To consider fairness in the distribution of financial resources among different groups of people, the equity concept is incorporated using constraints in model formulation. These constraints limit inequity to the user-defined level to achieve the equity-efficiency tradeoff in the decision-making process. To present practical application of the proposed model, it is applied to a pilot area in Tehran, the capital city of Iran. Building stocks, structural vulnerability functions, and regional seismic hazard characteristics are incorporated to compile a probabilistic seismic risk model for the pilot area. Results illustrate the variation of mitigation expenditures by location and structural type for buildings. These expenditures are sensitive to the amount of available budget and equity consideration for the constant risk aversion. Most significantly, equity is more easily achieved if the budget is unlimited. Conversely, increasing equity where the budget is limited decreases the efficiency. The risk-return tradeoff, equity-reconstruction expenditures tradeoff, and variation of per-capita expected earthquake loss in different income classes are also presented. PMID:25676412

  15. Risk Measures in Quantitative Finance

    OpenAIRE

    Mitra, Sovan

    2009-01-01

    This paper was presented and written for two seminars: a national UK University Risk Conference and a Risk Management industry workshop. The target audience is therefore a cross section of Academics and industry professionals. The current ongoing global credit crunch has highlighted the importance of risk measurement in Finance to companies and regulators alike. Despite risk measurement's central importance to risk management, few papers exist reviewing them or following t...

  16. VALUE AT RISK - CORPORATE RISK MEASUREMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anis Cecilia-Nicoleta

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The notion of 'risk' is used in a number of sciences. The Faculty of Law studies the risk depending on its legality. The Accident Theory applies this term to describe the damage and the disasters. One can find studies on the risks in the works of psychology, philosophy, medicine and within each of these areas the study of the risk is based on the given science subject and, of course, on their methods and approaches. Such a variety of risk study is explained by the diversity of this phenomenon. Under the market economy conditions, the risk is an essential component of any economic agent management policy, of the approach developed by this one, a strategy that depends almost entirely on individual ability and capacity to anticipate his evolution and to exploit his opportunities, assuming a so-called 'risk of business failure.' There are several ways to measure the risks in projects, one of the most used methods to measure this being the Value at Risk(VaR. Value at Risk (VaR was made famous by JP Morgan in the mid 1990s, by introducing the RiskMetrics approach, and hence, by far, has been sanctioned by several Governing Bodies throughout the world bank. In short, it measures the value of risk capital stocks in a given period at a certain probability of loss. This measurement can be modified for risk applications through, for example, the potential loss values affirmation in a certain amount of time during the economic life of the project- clearly, a project with a lower VaR is better. It should be noted that it is not always possible or advisable for a company to limit itself to the remote analysis of each risk because the risks and their effects are interdependent and constitute a system .In addition, there are risks which, in combination with other risks, tend to produce effects which they would not have caused by themselves and risks that tend to offset and even cancel each other out.

  17. Measuring Resilience to Natural Hazards: Towards Sustainable Hazard Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae Heon Shim

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Measuring resilience to natural hazards is a central issue in the hazard mitigation sciences. This paper applied a confirmatory factor methodology to operationalize the biophysical, built-environment, and socioeconomic resilience dimensions for local jurisdictions in large urban metropolitan areas in South Korea. Mapping the factor scores of the dimensions revealed great spatial variations. The factor covariances showed a trade-off relationship between natural infrastructure and human activities. A hierarchical cluster analysis was used to classify the localities into heterogeneous groups with respect to the identified resilience dimensions. Densely developed and affluent urban areas tend to lack biophysical resilience. Some local governments, sorted into the same groups, turn out to be located in different metropolitan areas. The spatial variation and inequality in the resilience dimensions suggest the necessity of integrated and flexible governance for sustainable hazard mitigation.

  18. Chrun risk mitigation models for student’s behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo Giudici

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available In order to prevent the phenomenon of abandonment (churn, the objective of this paper is to analyze university student’s careers. The results of our research will be used to plan activities of collective or single tutoring and to measure the efficiency and efficacy for specific courses. In particular, the analysis considers years of history for two faculties in the University of Pavia: psychology and biology. In order to estimate for each student a measure of churn risk, our methodological approach is based on a duration predictive model. Empirical evidences are given on the basis of a real data set.

  19. Industrialized watersheds have elevated risk and limited opportunities to mitigate risk through water trading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheila M.W. Reddy

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Businesses are increasingly concerned about water scarcity and its financial impacts, as well as competing needs of other stakeholders and ecosystems. Industrialized watersheds may be at more serious risk from water scarcity than previously understood because industrial and municipal users have inelastic demand and a high value for water. Previous water risk assessments have failed to sufficiently capture these economic aspects of water risk. We illustrate how hydro-economic modeling can be used to improve water risk assessments at a basin scale and we apply the methodology to the industrialized Brazos River Basin (85% municipal and industrial withdrawals and consider implications for The Dow Chemical Company?s Freeport Operations in Texas, US. Brazos water right holders pay only operating and maintenance costs for water during normal periods; however, when shortages occur, leasing stored water or reducing production may be the only mitigation option in the short-run. Modeling of water shortages and the theoretical cost of leasing water under nine combined scenarios of demand growth and climate change suggests that water lease prices to industry could increase by 9–13X. At best, a more developed water rights and storage lease market could result in lower lease prices (2–3X; however, given that transactions would be limited it is more likely that prices would still increase by 4–13X. These results suggest that markets are unlikely to be a robust solution for the Brazos because, in contrast to other watersheds in the Western US, there is little reliable water to trade from low value users (agricultural to high value users (industry and municipalities. Looking at demand trends across the contiguous US as an indicator of water risk, 2% of watersheds have municipal and industrial demands that outstrip total surface and ground water supplies and in these watersheds industry has historically paid higher lease prices for water. This study provides new ways for businesses to characterize water risk and forecast water prices that uncovers hidden water risk and highlights the positive but diminished mitigating effects of water markets in a highly industrialized basin.

  20. 75 FR 34453 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies; Notice of Public Meeting; Reopening of Comment Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-17

    ... care delivery system. A webinar will be available on the agency's Web site at http://www.fda.gov/Drugs... draft guidance for industry issued on October 1, 2009 entitled ``Format and Content of Proposed Risk... industry on ``Format and Content of Proposed Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS),...

  1. Meteorological Hazard Assessment and Risk Mitigation in Rwanda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nduwayezu, Emmanuel; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Bugnon, Pierre-Charles; Nsengiyumva, Jean-Baptiste; Horton, Pascal; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2015-04-01

    Between 10 and 13 April 2012, heavy rains hit sectors adjacent to the Vulcanoes National Park (Musanze District in the Northern Province and Nyabihu and Rubavu Districts in the Western Province of RWANDA), causing floods that affected about 11,000 persons. Flooding caused deaths and injuries among the affected population, and extensive damage to houses and properties. 348 houses were destroyed and 446 were partially damaged or have been underwater for several days. Families were forced to leave their flooded homes and seek temporal accommodation with their neighbors, often in overcrowded places. Along the West-northern border of RWANDA, Virunga mountain range consists of 6 major volcanoes. Mount Karisimbi is the highest volcano at 4507m. The oldest mountain is mount Sabyinyo which rises 3634m. The hydraulic network in Musanze District is formed by temporary torrents and permanent watercourses. Torrents surge during strong storms, and are provoked by water coming downhill from the volcanoes, some 20 km away. This area is periodically affected by flooding and landslides because of heavy rain (Rwanda has 2 rainy seasons from February to April and from September to November each year in general and 2 dry seasons) striking the Volcano National Park. Rain water creates big water channels (in already known torrents or new ones) that impact communities, agricultural soils and crop yields. This project aims at identifying hazardous and risky areas by producing susceptibility maps for floods, debris flow and landslides over this sector. Susceptibility maps are being drawn using field observations, during and after the 2012 events, and an empirical model of propagation for regional susceptibility assessments of debris flows (Flow-R). Input data are 10m and 30m resolution DEMs, satellite images, hydrographic network, and some information on geological substratum and soil occupation. Combining susceptibility maps with infrastructures, houses and population density maps will be used in identifying the most risky areas. Finally, based on practical experiences in this kind of field and produced documents some recommendations for low-cost mitigation measures will be proposed. Reference: MIDIMAR, Impacts of floods and landslides on socio-economic development profile. Case study: Musanze District. Kigali, June 2012.

  2. COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES: COMMUNITY DISASTER KNOWLEDGE, SOCIAL CAPITAL, PREPAREDNESS AND MITIGATION MEASURES ENHANCE COASTAL COMMUNITY RESILIENCE TO NATURAL DISASTERS

    OpenAIRE

    James, S; M. Joseph Irudayaraj

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the strategies for enhancing resilience of a coastal community to natural disasters by effective disaster preparedness and mitigation measures. It elaborates the importance of capacity building and improved infrastructure performance. Participatory Disaster Risk Assessment (PDRA) is emphasised to understand the diverse vulnerabilities and resilience of the coastal communities. This paper presents a unique approach to integrate the existing capacities, ...

  3. A risk-mitigation approach to the management of induced seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bommer, Julian J.; Crowley, Helen; Pinho, Rui

    2015-04-01

    Earthquakes may be induced by a wide range of anthropogenic activities such as mining, fluid injection and extraction, and hydraulic fracturing. In recent years, the increased occurrence of induced seismicity and the impact of some of these earthquakes on the built environment have heightened both public concern and regulatory scrutiny, motivating the need for a framework for the management of induced seismicity. Efforts to develop systems to enable control of seismicity have not yet resulted in solutions that can be applied with confidence in most cases. The more rational approach proposed herein is based on applying the same risk quantification and mitigation measures that are applied to the hazard from natural seismicity. This framework allows informed decision-making regarding the conduct of anthropogenic activities that may cause earthquakes. The consequent risk, if related to non-structural damage (when re-location is not an option), can be addressed by appropriate financial compensation. If the risk poses a threat to life and limb, then it may be reduced through the application of strengthening measures in the built environment—the cost of which can be balanced against the economic benefits of the activity in question—rather than attempting to ensure that some threshold on earthquake magnitude or ground-shaking amplitude is not exceeded. However, because of the specific characteristics of induced earthquakes—which may occur in regions with little or no natural seismicity—the procedures used in standard earthquake engineering need adaptation and modification for application to induced seismicity.

  4. Model risk in backtesting risk measures

    OpenAIRE

    Evers, Corinna; Rohde, Johannes

    2014-01-01

    Under the Basel II regulatory framework non-negligible statistical problems arise when backtesting risk measures. In this setting backtests often become infeasible due to a low number of violations leading to heavy size distortions. According to Escanciano and Olmo (2010, 2011) these problems persist when incorporating estimation and model risk by adjusting the asymptotic variance of the test statistics. In this paper, we analyze backtests based on hit and duration sequences in a univariate f...

  5. Societal transformation and adaptation necessary to manage dynamics in flood hazard and risk mitigation (TRANS-ADAPT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Sven; Thaler, Thomas; Bonnefond, Mathieu; Clarke, Darren; Driessen, Peter; Hegger, Dries; Gatien-Tournat, Amandine; Gralepois, Mathilde; Fournier, Marie; Mees, Heleen; Murphy, Conor; Servain-Courant, Sylvie

    2015-04-01

    Facing the challenges of climate change, this project aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. This proposal assesses societal transformations from the perspective of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. Yet each risk mitigation measure is built on a narrative of exchanges and relations between people and therefore may condition the outputs. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this project will focus on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. The policy dimension of adaptation, predominantly decisions on the societal admissible level of vulnerability and risk, will be evaluated by a human-environment interaction approach using multiple methods and the assessment of social capacities of stakeholders across scales. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. In addressing the relationship between these dimensions of adaptation on different temporal and spatial scales, this project is both scientifically innovative and policy relevant, thereby supporting climate policy needs in Europe towards a concept of risk governance. Key words: climate change adaptation; transformation; flood risk management; resilience; vulnerability; innovative bottom-up developments; multifunctional use

  6. Coherent measurement of factor risks

    CERN Document Server

    Cherny, A S; Cherny, Alexander S.; Madan, Dilip B.

    2006-01-01

    We propose a new procedure for the risk measurement of large portfolios. It employs the following objects as the building blocks: - coherent risk measures introduced by Artzner, Delbaen, Eber, and Heath; - factor risk measures introduced in this paper, which assess the risks driven by particular factors like the price of oil, S&P500 index, or the credit spread; - risk contributions and factor risk contributions, which provide a coherent alternative to the sensitivity coefficients. We also propose two particular classes of coherent risk measures called Alpha V@R and Beta V@R, for which all the objects described above admit an extremely simple empirical estimation procedure. This procedure uses no model assumptions on the structure of the price evolution. Moreover, we consider the problem of the risk management on a firm's level. It is shown that if the risk limits are imposed on the risk contributions of the desks to the overall risk of the firm (rather than on their outstanding risks) and the desks are al...

  7. Uses of risk importance measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk importance measures provide an understandable and practical way of presenting probabilistic safety analysis results which too often tend to remain abstract numbers without real insight into the content. The report clarifies the definitions, relationships and interpretations of the three most basic measures: Risk increase factor, risk decrease factor, and fractional contribution. The above three measures already cover the main types of risk importance measures. Many other importance measures presented in literature are close variants to some of these three measures. They are related in many cases so that, for a technical system considered, the two other measures can be derived from the one calculated first. However, the practical interpretations are different, and hence each three measures have their own uses and rights to existence. The fundamental aspect of importance measures is, that they express some specific influence of a basic event on the total risk. The basic failure or error events are the elements from which the reliability and risk models are constituted. The importance measures are relative, which is an advantage compared to absolute risk numbers, due to insensitivity with respect to quantification uncertainties. Therefore they are particularly adapted to give first hand guidance where to focus main interest from the system's risk and reliability point of view and wherefrom to continue the analysis with more sophisticated methods requiring more effort

  8. Land Use Scenario Modeling for Flood Risk Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Barredo, José I.; Guy Engelen

    2010-01-01

    It is generally accepted that flood risk has been increasing in Europe in the last decades. Accordingly, it becomes a priority to better understand its drivers and mechanisms. Flood risk is evaluated on the basis of three factors: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. If one of these factors increases, then so does the risk. Land use change models used for ex-ante assessment of spatial trends provide planners with powerful tools for territorial decision making. However, until recently this type...

  9. Assessment of GHG mitigation technology measures in Ukraine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raptsoun, N.; Parasiouk, N.

    1996-12-31

    In June 1992 the representatives of 176 countries including Ukraine met in Rio de Janeiro at the UN Conference to coordinate its efforts in protecting and guarding the environment. Signature of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change by around 150 countries indicates that climate change is potentially a major threat to the world`s environment and economic development. The project {open_quotes}Country Study on Climate Change in Ukraine{close_quotes} coordinated by the Agency for Rational Energy Use and Ecology (ARENIA-ECO) and supported by the US Country Studies Program Support for Climate Change Studies. The aim of the project is to make the information related to climate change in Ukraine available for the world community by using the potential of Ukrainian research institutes for further concerted actions to solve the problem of climate change on the global scale. The project consists of four elements: (1) the development of the GHG Inventory in Ukraine; (2) assessments of ecosystems-vulnerability to climate change and adaptation options; and (3) mitigation options analysis; (4) public education and outreach activities. This paper contains the main results of the third element for the energy and non-energy sectors. Main tasks of the third element were: (1) to select, test and describe or develop the methodology for mitigation options assessment; (2) to analyze the main sources of GHG emissions in Ukraine; (3) to give the macro economic analysis of Ukrainian development and the development of main economical sectors industry, energy, transport, residential, forestry and agriculture; (4) to forecast GHG emissions for different scenarios of the economic development; and (5) to analyze the main measures to mitigate climate change.

  10. Spectral Risk Measures and the Choice of Risk Aversion Function

    OpenAIRE

    Dowd, Kevin; Cotter, John

    2011-01-01

    Spectral risk measures are attractive risk measures as they allow the user to obtain risk measures that reflect their risk-aversion functions. To date there has been very little guidance on the choice of risk-aversion functions underlying spectral risk measures. This paper addresses this issue by examining two popular risk aversion functions, based on exponential and power utility functions respectively. We find that the former yields spectral risk measures with nice intuiti...

  11. Spectral risk measures and the choice of risk aversion functior

    OpenAIRE

    Dowd, Kevin; Cotter, John

    2007-01-01

    Spectral risk measures are attractive risk measures as they allow the user to obtain risk measures that reflect their risk-aversion functions. To date there has been very little guidance on the choice of risk-aversion functions underlying spectral risk measures. This paper addresses this issue by examining two popular risk aversion functions, based on exponential and power utility functions respectively. We find that the former yields spectral risk measures with nice intuitiveproperties...

  12. INTERNAL AUDIT AND ITS APPROACH TO THE RISK MITIGATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VADIM BENEŠ

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This thesis is analyzing the modern role of the internal audit in corporate(mainly banking structures. It describes the changes made in the social role ofauditing during the years and emphasizes the internal audit´s risk managementfunction, rather than just control function. Attention is given to the methodology used,especially to the currently most widespread risk-based auditing approach. Also one ofthe most recent approaches to auditing – so called continuous auditing - is brieflydescribed and the possibilities of its implementation into the risk-based framework areoutlined.

  13. Mitigating corporate water risk: Financial market tools and supply management

    OpenAIRE

    Wendy M. Larson; Paul L. Freedman; Viktor Passinsky; Edward Grubb; Peter Adriaens

    2012-01-01

    A decision framework for business water-risk response is proposed that considers financial instruments and supply management strategies. Based on available and emergent programmes, companies in the agricultural, commodities, and energy sectors may choose to hedge against financial risks by purchasing futures contracts or insurance products. These strategies address financial impacts such as revenue protection due to scarcity and disruption of direct operations or in the supply chain, but they...

  14. INTERNAL AUDIT AND ITS APPROACH TO THE RISK MITIGATION

    OpenAIRE

    VADIM BENEŠ

    2012-01-01

    This thesis is analyzing the modern role of the internal audit in corporate(mainly banking) structures. It describes the changes made in the social role ofauditing during the years and emphasizes the internal audit´s risk managementfunction, rather than just control function. Attention is given to the methodology used,especially to the currently most widespread risk-based auditing approach. Also one ofthe most recent approaches to auditing – so called continuous auditing - is brieflydescribed...

  15. Taming Trojan Horses: Identifying and Mitigating Corporate Social Responsibility Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Heugens, P.P.M.A.R.; Dentchev, N.A.

    2007-01-01

    Organizations are exposed to increasing pressures from their constituents to integrate corporate social responsibility (CSR) principles into their ongoing business practices. But accepting new and potentially open-ended commitments is not a harmless exercise, and companies may well expose themselves to serious risks when embracing such principles. To identify these risks, we conducted two naturalistic studies: one exploratory, the other corroborative. The results show that CSR adoption is ass...

  16. Information and education as a basis of risk mitigation for the citizens of Catalonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guamis, J.; Burckhart, K.; Grau, A.

    2009-09-01

    The General Directorate for Civil Protection of the Catalan Government is in charge of the drawing up and validation of plans that identify risk and establish a joint system of response actions to minimize the consequences of damages caused by emergencies. The risks covered are natural (fire, snow, flooding, heat,...) and human (chemical industry, transport of dangerous goods,...) ones. In the special case of flooding, an Emergency Flood Plan for Catalonia (INUNCAT) exists. Its aim is to minimize the effects and damages to people, property or the environment due to floods within the region of Catalonia. In the following, the actions on active prevention currently realized by Civil Protection in this Mediterranean region regarding risk mitigation of flooding are described. Special emphasis is laid on the prevention of risk situations through advanced information and education which aim at diminishing the vulnerability of the population. The preparedness of the population to face a serious flooding depends highly on the level of the citizens’ self-protection. Therefore the collection and dissemination of recommendations on adequate behaviour is crucial. The Catalan Government realizes different activities to foster the understanding and the correct behaviour of the citizens in case of flooding. Informative sessions to target groups, opinion studies, mass media communication and itinerant exhibitions are some of the elements applied to increase social consciousness and mitigate the vulnerability of the population. Among these, sensitization campaigns play a crucial role. A coherent system of information and education is adhered to these campaigns. Informative material (posters, leaflets, web sites) and sessions are part of the activities which are addressed to different social group and aim at rising the population’s awareness on the risk of flooding. Multidisciplinary presentations and expert speeches on adequate behaviour are given to stakeholders in those areas which are potentially affected by flooding or which are situated downriver of big water reservoirs. These stakeholders act as multipliers to pass on the recommendations emitted by the Catalan Government. Mass communication is a means of reaching a wide part of the population. TV spots, radio announcements and newspaper advertisements on correct behaviour in a certain emergency do already exist for certain risks, but are still missing in the case of flooding. The realization of opinion studies contribute to a better understanding of the citizens’ risk perception. The opinion study includes questions like: What do you know about recommendations on behaviour during flooding? or What would you do if you found themselves in an emergency? When contrasting the results, the effectiveness of existing campaigns is put on proof and the content and canal of future campaigns can be determined. The General Directorate for Civil Protection has created an itinerant exhibition as an additional activity to increase the populations’ consciousness on the potential risks in the Mediterranean region of Catalonia. It includes the main preventive measures the citizens have to take in case of an emergency and depicts recommendations for self-protection. The exhibition is displayed at municipal level and is designated to approach the maximum number of citizens. The participation in European projects, such as RINAMED, is a way to increase the interchange of know-how and strengthen international communication. In the case of RINAMED the objective was to provide the citizens living in the Mediterranean areas with a better knowledge of the natural risks. The joint effort of the different member regions contributed to establish a common frame of prevention and information in order to increase risk preparedness in the Mediterranean area. For future improvement and advances regarding educational and informative tasks, one of the aims is to obtain direct involvement of the population and to reach specific target groups through opinion leaders. Moreover the need to build partnership or stre

  17. Mercury mitigative measures related to hydroelectric reservoirs. The La Grande Complex experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quebec Hydro's plan for mitigation of mercury contamination in fish and wildlife in the La Grande river basin was presented. The hazard and environmental threat posed by mercury contamination through flooding was described. Implications of mercury contamination for the Cree natives was discussed and provisions of the James Bay mercury agreement were described. Potential 'at source' remedial measures were described, including soil and vegetation removal, controlled burning of soils and vegetation, capping of flooded soils, lime or sulphite salt addition, sediment suspension, genetic manipulation of bacterial populations, selenium addition, nutrient addition, intensive fishing, and reservoir draining. Compensation measures were considered since no practical medium term remedial measures could be found. A case study of the Eastmain-1 Reservoir's $213 000 000 deforestation program was cited as a possible model. It was concluded that realistically, compensation produced the only feasible health risk reduction program, since none of the 'at source' remedial measure were technically or economically feasible. 24 refs

  18. Cloud computing in pharmaceutical R&D: business risks and mitigations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geiger, Karl

    2010-05-01

    Cloud computing provides information processing power and business services, delivering these services over the Internet from centrally hosted locations. Major technology corporations aim to supply these services to every sector of the economy. Deploying business processes 'in the cloud' requires special attention to the regulatory and business risks assumed when running on both hardware and software that are outside the direct control of a company. The identification of risks at the correct service level allows a good mitigation strategy to be selected. The pharmaceutical industry can take advantage of existing risk management strategies that have already been tested in the finance and electronic commerce sectors. In this review, the business risks associated with the use of cloud computing are discussed, and mitigations achieved through knowledge from securing services for electronic commerce and from good IT practice are highlighted. PMID:20443161

  19. Risks and Mitigating Factors in Decisions to Accept Students with Criminal Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodersen, Miriam; Swick, Danielle; Richman, Jack

    2009-01-01

    Social work educators have few guidelines to help them evaluate master's of social work applicants with criminal records. This study surveyed 280 field supervisors and asked them to rate their likelihood of rejecting a student with a criminal record depending on crime type and mitigating factors. Results found that supervisors' perception of risk

  20. Mitigating Real or Perceived Risks: A Pro-Active Approach for Dealing with Naysayers and Critics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schutte, Bart; Jones, Kevin

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews an approach to mitigating real or perceived risks from "Naysayers" and critics in developing and using the software tools available with web 2.0. Some of the issues are about the use of the tools, the ability of management to control the use of these tools, privacy issues and the time the people spend using these tools.

  1. Fuzzy algorithm to Mitigate Risk in the Assignment of Roles in a Wireless Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. Santra

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper is presenting a method of defining a fuzzy membership function which helps in role assignment for wireless network. There is a risk involved in assigning roles dynamically as there can be a false negative or in other words an intruder is permitted into the system. The present proposal addresses this issue to mitigate the risk involved and overcome the false negative and false positive issues involved in assigning the roles.

  2. PAEAN- a risk-mitigation framework for business transaction at run-time

    OpenAIRE

    Cfarku, Denada; Taher, Yehia; Haque, Rafiqul; van den Heuvel, Willem-Jan; Papazoglou, Michael P

    2012-01-01

    The increasing complexity of the business transaction results in a higher potential risk in terms of SLA violation. The fulfillment of the QoS constraints specified in global SLA can be threatened at any time by different unexpected events that could occur during the execution of a business transaction. Unfortunately, there is no solution found that can efficiently mitigate this risk. Some of the current business transaction monitoring and managing solutions can monitor busi...

  3. Perceptions of climate change risks and mitigation behaviors : understanding inconsistencies between representations and action

    OpenAIRE

    Lázaro, Alexandra; Cabecinhas, Rosa; Carvalho, Anabela

    2008-01-01

    Citizens’ awareness of risks and responsibilities regarding climate change suggests that they can see themselves as agents of social change both in their daily lives and as part of a knowledgeable public opinion. However, research has shown that individual behavior to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions is not consistent with such awareness. A survey study with a sample of Portuguese university students investigated the relation between knowledge of climate change and perception of risks, attri...

  4. A NOVEL RISK ANALYSIS AND MITIGATION METHOD IN DISTRIBUTED BANKING SYSTEM

    OpenAIRE

    K.V.D.Kiran; L.S.S.Reddy; M. Seetharama Prasad

    2013-01-01

    The paper introduces a Fractional Reverse Banking like Distributed Banking System and the infrastructure is becoming more and more complex, and connected to large number of security issues and amount of risks to readiness assets are increasing. This is done to expand the economy by freeing up capital that can be loaned out to other parties. Most countries operate under this type of system. Hence, the process of identification, analysis, and mitigation of Information Security risks has assumed...

  5. Towards a Proactive Risk Mitigation Strategy at La Fossa Volcano, Vulcano Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biass, S.; Gregg, C. E.; Frischknecht, C.; Falcone, J. L.; Lestuzzi, P.; di Traglia, F.; Rosi, M.; Bonadonna, C.

    2014-12-01

    A comprehensive risk assessment framework was built to develop proactive risk reduction measures for Vulcano Island, Italy. This framework includes identification of eruption scenarios; probabilistic hazard assessment, quantification of hazard impacts on the built environment, accessibility assessment on the island and risk perception study. Vulcano, a 21 km2 island with two primary communities host to 900 permanent residents and up to 10,000 visitors during summer, shows a strong dependency on the mainland for basic needs (water, energy) and relies on a ~2 month tourism season for its economy. The recent stratigraphy reveals a dominance of vulcanian and subplinian eruptions, producing a range of hazards acting at different time scales. We developed new methods to probabilistically quantify the hazard related to ballistics, lahars and tephra for all eruption styles. We also elaborated field- and GIS- based methods to assess the physical vulnerability of the built environment and created dynamic models of accessibility. Results outline the difference of hazard between short and long-lasting eruptions. A subplinian eruption has a 50% probability of impacting ~30% of the buildings within days after the eruption, but the year-long damage resulting from a long-lasting vulcanian eruption is similar if tephra is not removed from rooftops. Similarly, a subplinian eruption results in a volume of 7x105 m3 of material potentially remobilized into lahars soon after the eruption. Similar volumes are expected for a vulcanian activity over years, increasing the hazard of small lahars. Preferential lahar paths affect critical infrastructures lacking redundancy, such as the road network, communications systems, the island's only gas station, and access to the island's two evacuation ports. Such results from hazard, physical and systemic vulnerability help establish proactive volcanic risk mitigation strategies and may be applicable in other island settings.

  6. COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES: COMMUNITY DISASTER KNOWLEDGE, SOCIAL CAPITAL, PREPAREDNESS AND MITIGATION MEASURES ENHANCE COASTAL COMMUNITY RESILIENCE TO NATURAL DISASTERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. James

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the strategies for enhancing resilience of a coastal community to natural disasters by effective disaster preparedness and mitigation measures. It elaborates the importance of capacity building and improved infrastructure performance. Participatory Disaster Risk Assessment (PDRA is emphasised to understand the diverse vulnerabilities and resilience of the coastal communities. This paper presents a unique approach to integrate the existing capacities, capacities required and important social and economic activities with the key strategies of community disaster resilience. The study focuses on enhancement of community knowledge in disaster management, community social capital, integrated disaster management plan, preparedness and recovery and disaster mitigation measures implemented in the coastal villages for effectively managing the disaster situations. There is a greater emphasis on the need for involving multisectoral and multidisciplinary sections of the community in in disaster preparedness and capacities required for minimizing social and economic impact which will further help in developing mitigation strategies.

  7. Tychastic measure of viability risk

    CERN Document Server

    Aubin, Jean-Pierre; Dordan, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    This book presents a forecasting mechanism of the price intervals for deriving the SCR (solvency capital requirement) eradicating the risk during the exercise period on one hand, and measuring the risk by computing the hedging exit time function associating with smaller investments the date until which the value of the portfolio hedges the liabilities on the other. This information, summarized under the term “tychastic viability measure of risk” is an evolutionary alternative to statistical measures, when dealing with evolutions under uncertainty. The book is written by experts in the field and the target audience primarily comprises research experts and practitioners.

  8. Safety Planning Intervention: A Brief Intervention to Mitigate Suicide Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, Barbara; Brown, Gregory K.

    2012-01-01

    The usual care for suicidal patients who are seen in the emergency department (ED) and other emergency settings is to assess level of risk and refer to the appropriate level of care. Brief psychosocial interventions such as those administered to promote lower alcohol intake or to reduce domestic violence in the ED are not typically employed for…

  9. Supply Chain Risk Management : Identification, Evaluation and Mitigation Techniques

    OpenAIRE

    Musa, S.Nurmaya

    2012-01-01

    Supply chains have expanded rapidly over the decades, with the aim to increase productivity, lower costs and fulfil demands in emerging markets. The increasing complexity in a supply chain hinders visibility and consequently reduces one’s control over the process. Cases of disruption such as the ones faced by Ericsson and Enron, have shown that a risk event occurring at one point of the supply chain can greatly affect other members, when the disruption is not properly controlled. Supply chain...

  10. Disease management mitigates risk of pathogen transmission from maricultured salmonids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jones, Simon R. M.; Bruno, David W.; Madsen, Lone; Peeler, Edmund J.

    2015-01-01

    Open marine net pens facilitate virus and sea lice transfer, occasionally leading to infections and outbreaks of disease in farmed salmon. A review of 3 salmon pathogens (infectious salmon anaemia virus [ISAV], salmon alphavirus [SAV] and the salmon louse Lepeophtheirus salmonis) shows that increased risk of exposure to neighbouring farms is inversely related to distance from and directly related to biomass at the source of infection. Epidemiological techniques integrating data from oceanography...

  11. Measuring downside risk - realised semivariance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Kinnebrock, Silja

    2008-01-01

    We propose a new measure of risk, based entirely on downwards moves measured using high frequency data. Realised semivariances are shown to have important predictive qualities for future market volatility. The theory of these new measures is spelt out, drawing on some new results from probability theory.

  12. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The RHRM equations, as represented in methodology and code presented in this report, are primarily a collection of key factors normally used in risk assessment that are relevant to understanding the hazards and risks associated with projected mitigation, cleanup, and risk management activities. The RHRM code has broad application potential. For example, it can be used to compare one mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activity with another, instead of just comparing it to just the fixed baseline. If the appropriate source term data are available, it can be used in its non-ratio form to estimate absolute values of the associated controlling hazards and risks. These estimated values of controlling hazards and risks can then be examined to help understand which mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activities are addressing the higher hazard conditions and risk reduction potential at a site. Graphics can be generated from these absolute controlling hazard and risk values to graphically compare these high hazard and risk reduction potential conditions. If the RHRM code is used in this manner, care must be taken to specifically define and qualify (e.g., identify which factors were considered and which ones tended to drive the hazard and risk estimates) the resultant absolute controlling hazard and risk values

  13. Overview of mitigation policies and measures in the forestry sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathaye, J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab., CA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    In this paper the author addresses questions on how the forestry sector can make a contribution to the general problem of greenhouse gases in the environment. Primarily this is in the form of carbon conservation and sequestering. There is a potential land area for conservation and sequestration estimated to be 700 Mha. The total carbon that could be sequestered and conserved globally by 2050 on this land is 60 - 87 GtC. Slowing deforestation, assisting regeneration, forestation and agroforestry are the primary mitigation measures for carbon conservation and sequestration. For long term success, enforcement to halt deforestation has to be accompained by economic and/or other benefits to the deforesters that equal or exceed their current remuneration. Making plantations a significant fuel for utility electricity generation will require higher biomass yields and thermal efficiency matching that of conventional plants. Significant reduction of global carbon emissions requires national governments to institute measures that provide local, national, economic and other benefits while conserving and sequestering carbon.

  14. Transmission System Operational Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Condez-Godziemba, Cyril

    2012-01-01

    As transmission networks are getting older and as their components are reaching their life span’s end, the number of maintenance outages for equipments reparation or replacement is destined to gradually increase in the coming years. These outages weaken system’s security and lead to highstress situations that often do not comply with N-k operation rules. Thus in-depth risk analysis have to be performed in those cases, to ensure system’s smooth operation and optimal maintenance planning. It re...

  15. Risk mitigation in the implementation of AMTs: A guiding framework for future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhaskar Nagar

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The fast industrial development increases different types of risks for the industries. Many risk factors are inherent in the implementation of advanced manufacturing technologies (AMTs. Industries are developing methodologies for risk prevention and protection. The present research focuses to identify various risks that could influence the implementation of AMTs, and develop a framework to mitigate them. For this framework, interpretive structural modeling(ISM has been used to depict the relationship and priority among the various risks. This research provides a path for managers and indicates the dominant risks on the basis of higher driving power. Also, this research classifies the relationship among various risks in AMTs implementation according to their driving power and dependence. The risks have been categorized into four categories as autonomous risks, linkage risks, dependent risks and independent risks. The proposed hierarchal model would help the management to effectively handle and develop strategies against the risks and hence new and latest technologies can be adopted with ease and effectiveness.

  16. From Risk Measures to Research Measures

    OpenAIRE

    FRITTELLI, MARCO; Peri, Ilaria

    2012-01-01

    In order to evaluate the quality of the scientific research, we introduce a new family of scientific performance measures, called Scientific Research Measures (SRM). Our proposal originates from the more recent developments in the theory of risk measures and is an attempt to resolve the many problems of the existing bibliometric indices. The SRM that we introduce are based on the whole scientist's citation record and are: coherent, as they share the same structural propertie...

  17. An Efficient Approach towards Mitigating Soft Errors Risks

    CERN Document Server

    Sadi, Muhammad Sheikh; Uddin, Md Nazim; Jürjens, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Smaller feature size, higher clock frequency and lower power consumption are of core concerns of today's nano-technology, which has been resulted by continuous downscaling of CMOS technologies. The resultant 'device shrinking' reduces the soft error tolerance of the VLSI circuits, as very little energy is needed to change their states. Safety critical systems are very sensitive to soft errors. A bit flip due to soft error can change the value of critical variable and consequently the system control flow can completely be changed which leads to system failure. To minimize soft error risks, a novel methodology is proposed to detect and recover from soft errors considering only 'critical code blocks' and 'critical variables' rather than considering all variables and/or blocks in the whole program. The proposed method shortens space and time overhead in comparison to existing dominant approaches.

  18. Airflow measurement techniques applied to radon mitigation problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During the past decade a multitude of diagnostic procedures associated with the evaluation of air infiltration and air leakage sites have been developed. The spirit of international cooperation and exchange of ideas within the AIC-AIVC conferences has greatly facilitated the adoption and use of these measurement techniques in the countries participating in Annex V. But wide application of such diagnostic methods are not limited to air infiltration alone. The subject of this paper concerns the ways to evaluate and improve radon reduction in buildings using diagnostic methods directly related to developments familiar to the AIVC. Radon problems are certainly not unique to the United States, and the methods described here have to a degree been applied by researchers of other countries faced with similar problems. The radon problem involves more than a harmful pollutant of the living spaces of our buildings -- it also involves energy to operate radon removal equipment and the loss of interior conditioned air as a direct result. The techniques used for air infiltration evaluation will be shown to be very useful in dealing with the radon mitigation challenge. 10 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab

  19. Liquidity RiskMeasurement and Control

    OpenAIRE

    Blahová, Na?a

    2012-01-01

    The article deals with the liquidity risk in the banks in the context of the financial crisis. At first, the balance sheet and market liquidity are defined and the main principles of the methods for measuring liquidity risk, which banks use, are identified. Then follow review of main challenges of managing the liquidity of banks. Finally, it discusses qualitative regulatory requirements and eligibility of newly formulated standards with regard to minimum liquidity in general and in relation t...

  20. A new modelling framework and mitigation measures for increased resilience to flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valyrakis, Manousos; Alexakis, Athanasios; Solley, Mark

    2015-04-01

    Flooding in rivers and estuaries is amongst the most significant challenges our society has yet to tackle effectively. Use of floodwall systems is one of the potential measures that can be used to mitigate the detrimental socio-economical and ecological impacts and alleviate the associated costs of flooding. This work demonstrates the utility of such systems for a case study via appropriate numerical simulations, in addition to conducting scaled flume experiments towards obtaining a better understanding of the performance and efficiency of the flood-wall systems. At first, the results of several characteristic inundation modeling scenarios and flood mitigation options, for a flood-prone region in Scotland. In particular, the history and hydrology of the area are discussed and the assumptions and hydraulic model input (model geometry including instream hydraulic structures -such as bridges and weirs- river and floodplain roughness, initial and boundary conditions) are presented, followed by the model results. Emphasis is given on the potential improvements brought about by mitigating flood risk using flood-wall systems. Further, the implementation of the floodwall in mitigating flood risk is demonstrated via appropriate numerical modeling, utilizing HEC-RAS to simulate the effect of a river's rising stage during a flood event, for a specific area. The later part of this work involves the design, building and utilization of a scaled physical model of a flood-wall system. These experiments are carried out at one of the research flumes in the Water Engineering laboratory of the University of Glasgow. These involve an experimental investigation where the increase of force applied on the floodwall is measured for different degrees of deflection of the water in the stream, under the maximum flow discharge that can be carried through without exceeding the floodwall height (and accounting for the effect of super-elevation). These results can be considered upon the implementation phase of floodwalls, when the floodwalls are placed at any arrangement other than parallel to the flow (e.g. along river bends in meandering channels or at river junctions). Such considerations can lead to site-specific optimal designs of direct flood defenses with the rising floodwall system, both in terms of product performance as well as cost efficiency.

  1. Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.

    2010-01-01

    An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

  2. Thailand's Low-Carbon Scenario 2050: The AIM/CGE analyses of CO2 mitigation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change and CO2 mitigation have become increasingly important environmental issues. Recently Thailand has proposed policies on GHG mitigation such as Thailand’s Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA), which aims at GHG mitigation in the energy sector. This study used the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, called “AIM/CGE” model, to analyse GHG mitigation measures under emission trading and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology in Thailand. Results show that the international free emission trading policy can drive more GHG reduction by decreasing energy supply and demand, and increasing prices of emissions. The CCS technologies would balance emission reduction but they would reduce energy efficiency improvement and renewable energy utilization. In the energy security aspect, the policy options in this study would improve energy security, energy import dependency, and co-benefits of GHG mitigation in forms of improving local air quality. Results are also helpful to GHG mitigation policy in developing countries. -- Highlights: •A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was used to analyze GHG mitigation policies in Thailand. •The CCS and emission trading will increase GHG mitigation in Thailand. •The 30% GHG mitigation target with 50% emission trading will give the best result in GDP. •The share of biomass resource and energy efficiency will decrease with CCS. •The emission trading will play an important role in decreasing fossil consumption and increasing renewable energy utilization

  3. Current issues in dietary acrylamide:formation,mitigation and risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedreschi, F.; Salome Mariotti, M.; Granby, Kit

    2014-01-01

    Acrylamide (AA) is known as a neurotoxin in humans and it is classified as a probable human carcinogen by the International Agency of Research on Cancer. AA is produced as by-product of the Maillard reaction in starchy foods processed at high temperatures (>120 °C). This review includes the investigation of AA precursors, mechanisms of AA formation and AA mitigation technologies in potato, cereal and coffee products. Additionally, most relevant issues of AA risk assessment are discussed. New tec...

  4. Cost-effective alternatives for mitigating Cryptosporidium risk in drinking water and enhancing ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, B. A.; Kandulu, J. M.

    2009-08-01

    Under the multibarrier paradigm, water quality management barriers that mitigate risk to consumers are required at multiple points from the catchment to the tap. We present a cost-effectiveness analysis of 13 catchment- and treatment-based management alternatives for mitigating Cryptosporidium risk in the Myponga water supply catchment, South Australia. A broad range of costs and benefits are identified and valued, including setup, operation and maintenance, and opportunity costs, and benefits for ecosystem services including water quality, biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and farm production services. The results suggest that the cost-effectiveness of investment in water quality management can be substantially enhanced by considering the costs of management and the benefits for ecosystem services, in addition to Cryptosporidium removal effectiveness. Cost-effectiveness of investment in management alternatives is dependent upon the desired level of Cryptosporidium removal effectiveness by both the catchment and treatment barriers. The combination of a spatially targeted 25% restriction in water course access of nondairy cattle and treatment by enhanced coagulation provides the most (net) cost-effective Cryptosporidium risk mitigation strategy. This combination may achieve 0.614 log removal at a net cost of A0.7 million and (net) cost-effectiveness of A1.14 million per log removal. Additional risk mitigation can be achieved through the addition of ultraviolet irradiation treatment, higher levels of water course access restriction for cattle, and the adoption of dung beetles in the catchment. Economic valuation of a range of costs and benefits of management priorities can support cost-effective water quality management investment decisions and inform elements of policy design such as cost-sharing arrangements and spatial targeting.

  5. Project management best practices: forging win-win partnerships and mitigating power project risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper discusses aspects of project management to mitigate power project risk. end-to-end project development involves development phase, permitting phase, implementation phase, and operational phase. Each phase involves a number of different elements. In renewable energy project good management requires maintaining project discipline and schedule throughout all phases. Project success requires commercial competitiveness, fuel availability, power sales contracts, stake holder support, permitting, effective execution, construction and good technical performance

  6. Project management best practices: forging win-win partnerships and mitigating power project risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trowsdale, R. [EPCOR Power Development Corp. (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    This paper discusses aspects of project management to mitigate power project risk. end-to-end project development involves development phase, permitting phase, implementation phase, and operational phase. Each phase involves a number of different elements. In renewable energy project good management requires maintaining project discipline and schedule throughout all phases. Project success requires commercial competitiveness, fuel availability, power sales contracts, stake holder support, permitting, effective execution, construction and good technical performance.

  7. Outreach Programs, Peer Pressure, and Common Sense: What Motivates Homeowners to Mitigate Wildfire Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaffrey, Sarah M.; Stidham, Melanie; Toman, Eric; Shindler, Bruce

    2011-09-01

    In recent years, altered forest conditions, climate change, and the increasing numbers of homes built in fire prone areas has meant that wildfires are affecting more people. An important part of minimizing the potential negative impacts of wildfire is engaging homeowners in mitigating the fire hazard on their land. It is therefore important to understand what makes homeowners more or less willing to take action. The research presented here comes from a study that interviewed a total of 198 homeowners in six communities in the western United States about the activities they had undertaken to mitigate their fire risk, the factors that contributed to their decisions, and their future intentions. The current paper reports on findings from the first half of the longitudinal study, after 3 years we will return to interview the current homeowner on the same properties to assess maintenance actions and facilitating and limiting factors. Overall we found a body of individuals who understand the fire risk, are taking numerous mitigation actions, and think that these actions have reduced their risk. These homeowners typically did not expect the government to do it for them: they wanted information about what to do and, in some cases, assistance with the work, but saw taking care of their property primarily as their responsibility. Responses also show that key information sources and motivating factors vary by location and that it is not inherently necessary to have relationships between community members to create defensible space.

  8. Current issues in dietary acrylamide:formation,mitigation and risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedreschi, F.; Salome Mariotti, M.

    2014-01-01

    Acrylamide (AA) is known as a neurotoxin in humans and it is classified as a probable human carcinogen by the International Agency of Research on Cancer. AA is produced as by-product of the Maillard reaction in starchy foods processed at high temperatures (>120 °C). This review includes the investigation of AA precursors, mechanisms of AA formation and AA mitigation technologies in potato, cereal and coffee products. Additionally, most relevant issues of AA risk assessment are discussed. New technologies tested from laboratory to industrial scale face, as a major challenge, the reduction of AA content of browned food, while still maintaining its attractive organoleptic properties. Reducing sugars such as glucose and fructose are the major contributors to AA in potato-based products. On the other hand, the limiting substrate of AA formation in cereals and coffee is the free amino acid asparagine. For some products the addition of glycine or asparaginase reduces AA formation during baking. Since, for potatoes, the limiting substrate is reducing sugars, increases in sugar content in potatoes during storage then introduce some difficulties and potentially quite large variations in the AA content of the final product. Sugars in potatoes may be reduced by blanching. Levels of AA in different foods show large variations and no general upper limit is easily applicable, since some formation will always occur. Current policy is that practical measures should be taken voluntarily to reduce AA formation in vulnerable foods since AA is considered a health risk at the concentrations found in foods. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

  9. PROPUESTA METODOLÓGICA PARA PRIORIZAR ÁREAS CON AMENAZA POR CAÍDA DE ROCAS EN ENTORNOS URBANOS, COMO BASE PARA EL REORDENAMIENTO URBANO Y LA MITIGACIÓN DEL RIESGO / METHODOLOGICAL SUGGESTION FOR PRIORITY ROCK FALL HAZARD URBAN AREAS, FOR THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES INTEGRATED SET OF URBAN REORGANIZATION MEASURES AIMED AT THE MITIGATION OF THE ROCK FALL RELATED RISK.

    Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

    ALBEIRO DE JESÚS, RENDÓN RIVERA; RUBEN DARIO, VARGAS FRANCO; ALBERTO, ARIAS LÓPEZ.

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Este artículo describe una metodología cualitativa, para evaluar un índice de riesgo físico por caída de rocas a escala detallada (1:1000). Se realiza una cartografía detallada de las áreas de salida de bloques, depósitos de talud y geomorfología. Los depósitos de talud son indicadores de la frecuen [...] cia y distribución espacial del fenómeno de caída de rocas y su relación con las áreas fuente, donde se hizo una detallada clasificación de los bloques potencialmente inestables. El resultado final es la definición de los "corredores de tránsito" y su correspondiente clasificación en las categorías bajo, medio o alto índice de amenaza. Abstract in english This paper describes a qualitative methodology for the assessment of rock fall physical risk index at large-scale (1:1000). Through a detailed geologic and geomorphological survey both rock fall deposits and rock fall sources are identified and mapped. Analysis of the rock fall deposits give indicat [...] ions over the temporal frequency and spatial distribution of the phenomenon and point out the most active areas. Rock fall sources are meticulously studied and individual rock blocks are classified based on its potential instability. The final product is a definition of the rock's “transit corridors” and their corresponding classification, concerning the rock fall hazard index, using the heuristically defined categories of low, moderate and high hazard. Hazard index is estimated as lineal function of main variables, whose values (numeric indexes) are ground together in three categories: high, moderate, and low. Physical vulnerability index to each “transit corridor” is assessed based on the number of people and dwellings. Finally, physical risk index to every “transit corridor” is obtained crossing hazard index and vulnerability index data. The risk assessment results allowed the local authorities to carry out an integrated set of urban reorganization measures aimed at the mitigation of the rock fall related risk.

  10. Flood risk and mitigation strategies in the southeastern suburbs of Fez City (Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akdim, Brahim

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The risk of flooding in the south-eastern suburbs of Fez (Morocco was engendered by multiple factors (topographic, hydro-climatic, land use, social, technical. This study focuses on the Aouinate El Hajjaj district and shows that the district’s evolution, characterized by informal transactions (speculation, land squatting, construction without respect of norms and regulations was a major factor in the genesis of flood risk as the district extended into vulnerable sectors. Public efforts to resolve the district’s crisis and reinforce its environmental safety began in 1993 (2 dams and channels were constructed, street were paved and basic facilities were provided, such as drinking water, sanitation and electricity, but the risk factors persist. Technical solutions are locally recognized to be useful, but they are not sufficient. Other mitigating actions including the reduction of physical and socioeconomic vulnerability and the strengthening of the social structure of the community should be considered in a systemic point of view. They constitute elements of an alternative strategy in urban planning and development and must be framed by laws and regulations. Their use could be undertaken at individual, community and State levels depending on the specific dimension of each measure. A vision which integrates local and regional scales is essential in risk studies, in order to design a more sustainable action. The role of non-governmental organisations is important in flood mitigation and urban environmental policy. The incorporation of flood prevention as a parameter of urban planning should be considered by planners and the local population.En los suburbios del sudeste de Fez (Marruecos el riesgo de inundaciones responde a fenómenos de diversa naturaleza física y humana (topográficos, hidrológicos, climáticos, utilización del suelo, factores sociales y técnicos. En este trabajo se analiza la situación del distrito de Aouinate El Hajjaj, en donde diferentes procesos derivados de la ocupación de este espacio (especulación, proliferación de asentamientos informales, edificación sin respeto a las normas y reglamentos… han constituido factores decisivos en la génesis de los riesgos de inundación que actualmente afectan a la zona. Aunque los esfuerzos públicos para resolver la crisis del distrito y reforzar su seguridad frente a las adversidades del medio natural comenzaron en 1993 (construcción de dos presas y de canales, pavimentado de calles, dotación y mejora de los equipamientos básicos como el abastecimiento de agua potable y de electricidad, obras de saneamiento, etc., los factores de riesgo aún persisten. Las soluciones técnicas aplicadas han sido reconocidas por su utilidad, pero es necesario trabajar en otros ámbitos, como la reducción de la vulnerabilidad física, social y ambiental, y en el reforzamiento de la estructura social de la comunidad, lo que permitiría abordar el problema desde un punto de vista sistémico. Todos ellos constituyen los elementos de una estrategia alternativa en la planificación y el desarrollo urbano que deben ser enmarcadas por leyes y reglamentos. Su uso podría llevarse a cabo a nivel individual, comunitario y estatal —en función de la dimensión específica de cada caso—, con el fin de fomentar una estrategia de integración entre las escalas locales y regionales que contribuya a concebir acciones más sostenibles en los estudios de mitigación de los riesgos ambientales. Así mismo, el papel de las organizaciones no gubernamentales es importante en esta cuestión, y la política medioambiental, las acciones de los diferentes agentes que intervienen en el planeamiento urbano y la población local, deben estar sensibilizados y comprometidos con las estrategias para la prevención de inundaciones. [fr] Le risque d’inondation dans les banlieues du Sud-Est de la ville de Fez (Maroc sont produits par des facteurs multiples (topographiques, hydro-climatiques, relatifs aux usages du sol, sociaux, techniques. L’étude vise le district d’A

  11. Soil bioengineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Petrone

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on the autochthonal plants suitable for these kinds of interventions and on the economic efficiency of the interventions is essential for the dissemination of such techniques. The present paper is focused on these two issues as related to the realization of various typologies of soil bioengineering works in the humid tropics of Nicaragua.

    In the area of Río Blanco, located in the Department of Matagalpa, soil bioengineering installations were built in several sites. The particular structures built were: drainages with live fascine mattress, a live palisade, a vegetated live crib wall for riverbank protection, a vegetative covering made of a metallic net and biotextile coupled with a live palisade made of bamboo. In order to evaluate the suitability of the various plants used in these works, monitoring was performed, one on the live palisade alongside an unpaved road and the other on the live crib wall along a riverbank, by collecting data on survival rate and morphological parameters. Concerning economic efficiency, we proceeded to a financial analysis of the works. Once the unit price was obtained, we converted the amount into EPP Dollars (Equal Purchasing Power in order to compare the Nicaraguan context with the European one.

    Among the species used we found that Gliricidia sepium (local common name: Madero negro and Tabebuia rosea (local common name: Roble macuelizo are adequate for soil bioengineering measures on slopes, while Erythrina fusca (local common name: Helequeme resulted in successful behaviour only in the crib wall for riverbank protection.

    In comparing costs in Nicaragua and in Italy, the unit price reduction for Nicaragua ranges from 1.5 times (for the vegetative covering to almost 4 times (for the fascine mattress, using the EPP dollar exchange rate.

    Our conclusions with regard to hydrological-risk mitigating actions performed on a basin scale and through naturalistic (live interventions are that they are not only socially and technically possible, even in hardship areas (by maximizing the contribution of the local labour force and minimizing the use of mechanical equipment, but also economically sustainable.

  12. Soil bio-engineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Petrone

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on authochtonal plants suitable for this kind of works and on economic efficiency is essential for the divulgation of such techniques. The present paper is focused on this two issues related to the realization of various typologies of soil bio-engineering works in the humid tropic of Nicaragua.



    In the area of Río Blanco, located in the Department of Matagalpa, soil bio-engineering installations were built in several sites. The particular structures built were: drainages with live fascine mattress, a live palisade, a vegetated live crib wall for riverbank protection, a vegetative covering made of a metallic net and biotextile coupled with a live palisade made of bamboo. In order to evaluate the suitability of the various plants used in the works, monitorings were performed, one in the live palisade alongside an unpaved road and the other on the live crib wall along a riverbank, collecting survival rate and morphological parameters data. Concerning the economic efficiency we proceed to a financial analysis of the works and once the unit price was obtained, we converted the amount in EPP Dollars (Equal Purchasing Power in order to compare the Nicaraguan context with the Italian one.



    Among the used species we found that Madero negro (Gliricidia sepium and Roble macuelizo (Tabebuia rosea are adequate for soil-bioengineering measure on slopes while Helequeme (Erythrina fusca reported a successful behaviour only in the crib wall for riverbank protection.



    In the comparison of the costs in Nicaragua and in Italy, the unit price reduction for the Central American country ranges between 1.5 times (for the vegetative covering and almost 4 times (for the fascine mattress if it's used the EPP dollar exchange rate.



    Conclusions are reached with regard to hydrological-risk mitigating actions performed on a basin scale and through naturalistic (live interventions: not only are they socially and technically attainable, even in hardship areas (by maximizing the contribution of the local labor force and minimizing the use of mechanical equipment, but they are also economically sustainable.

  13. Assessing and mitigating risks of engineering programs with lean management techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fritz, A.; Oehmen, Josef

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates the use of lean management techniques as a risk mitigation approach for large-scale engineering programs. The key research questions are how lean best practices with the highest risk mitigation potential are identified, how the most relevant lean best practices for a specific program are identified and how the effort for implementation of these lean best practices is estimated. Large-scale engineering programs have as results usually complex technical products or systems such as airplanes, satellites (GPS) or software programs, immense infrastructure efforts like the construction of a new airport, highway or bridge, or combine elements of both technology and infrastructure. The benefits they deliver are therefore immense and sometimes even groundbreaking, defining new levels of capabilities. But their sheer size and the built-in complexity also manifest themselves in higher risks, which can lead to significant cost-overruns and large delays in schedule [Oehmen et al. 2012, Cantarelli et al. 2010, Flyvbjerg et al. 2003, GAO 2006]. Program success depends on four dimensions: delivery capability, organizational capability, marketing capability and innovative capability [Shao and Müller 2011, Shao et al. 2012]. To incorporate these capabilities and to manage the obviously difficult entity of a program, a variety of standards and guidance books have been published. The two most prominent ones are Managing Successful Programs (MSP) and The Standard for Program Management by the Project Management Institute (PMI), that both include Risk Management as a focal activity [MSP 2011, PMI 2013].

  14. 30 CFR 250.254 - What mitigation measures information must accompany the DPP or DOCD?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ...OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF Plans and Information Contents of Development and Production Plans (dpp) and Development Operations Coordination Documents (docd) § 250.254 What mitigation measures information must accompany the...

  15. Calculations and analysis of molten core-concrete interaction and its mitigation measures under severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper describes the major mechanism and model of MEDICS code, introduces the calculation methods of the molten core-concrete interaction under severe accidents with MEDICS code, and gives the calculation results of MCCI under severe accidents and its mitigation measures. The calculation results indicate that the top cooling is an effective mitigation measures to MCCI. It can obviously delay the melt-through time of containment base, and largely reduce the total H2 and non-codensible gases release. (authors)

  16. Maneuver Planning for Conjunction Risk Mitigation with Ground-track Control Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinley, David

    2008-01-01

    The planning of conjunction Risk Mitigation Maneuvers (RMM) in the presence of ground-track control requirements is analyzed. Past RMM planning efforts on the Aqua, Aura, and Terra spacecraft have demonstrated that only small maneuvers are available when ground-track control requirements are maintained. Assuming small maneuvers, analytical expressions for the effect of a given maneuver on conjunction geometry are derived. The analytical expressions are used to generate a large trade space for initial RMM design. This trade space represents a significant improvement in initial maneuver planning over existing methods that employ high fidelity maneuver models and propagation.

  17. Assess/Mitigate Risk through the Use of Computer-Aided Software Engineering (CASE) Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) was requested to perform an independent assessment of the mitigation of the Constellation Program (CxP) Risk 4421 through the use of computer-aided software engineering (CASE) tools. With the cancellation of the CxP, the assessment goals were modified to capture lessons learned and best practices in the use of CASE tools. The assessment goal was to prepare the next program for the use of these CASE tools. The outcome of the assessment is contained in this document.

  18. Global climate change: Implications, challenges, and mitigation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book presents a perspective of the potential problem of global climate change induced by human activity. The editors have presented viewpoints of experts (advocates and skeptics) representing the issues of climate change. Possible results from long-term global change discussed in this book include mass migrations of plants and animals; changes in crop yields; flood and drought; and economic, political, and cultural changes. The text contains 20 chapters on the impact of global climate change and 10 chapters on the mitigation of effects and policy development

  19. Risk Mitigation Strategies for Adverse Reactions Associated with the Disease-Modifying Drugs in Multiple Sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subei, Adnan M; Ontaneda, Daniel

    2015-09-01

    Over the past several years, the number of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) for the treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS) has doubled in number. The 13 approved agents have shown a wide range of efficacy and safety in their clinical trials and post-marketing experience. While the availability of the newer agents allows for a wider selection of therapy for clinicians and patients, there is a need for careful understanding of the benefits and risks of each agent. Several factors such as the medication efficacy, side-effect profile, patient's preference, and co-morbidities need to be considered. An individualized treatment approach is thus imperative. In this review, risk stratification and mitigation strategies of the various disease-modifying agents are discussed. PMID:26407624

  20. Mitigation of fire damage and escalation by fireproofing: A risk-based strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Passive fire protection by the application of fireproofing materials is a crucial safety barrier in the prevention of the escalation of fire scenarios. Fireproofing improves the capacity of process items and of support structures to maintain their structural integrity during a fire, preventing or at least delaying the collapse of structural elements. Maintenance and cost issues require, however, to apply such protection only where an actual risk of severe fire scenarios is present. Available methodologies for fireproofing application in on-shore installation do not consider the effect of jet-fires. In the present study, a risk-based methodology aimed at the protection from both pool fire and jet fire escalation was developed. The procedure addresses both the prevention of domino effect and the mitigation of asset damage due to the primary fire scenario. The method is mainly oriented to early design application, allowing the identification of fireproofing zones in the initial phases of lay-out definition.

  1. Risk Mitigation for the Development of the New Ariane 5 On-Board Computer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stransky, Arnaud; Chevalier, Laurent; Dubuc, Francois; Conde-Reis, Alain; Ledoux, Alain; Miramont, Philippe; Johansson, Leif

    2010-08-01

    In the frame of the Ariane 5 production, some equipment will become obsolete and need to be redesigned and redeveloped. This is the case for the On-Board Computer, which has to be completely redesigned and re-qualified by RUAG Space, as well as all its on-board software and associated development tools by ASTRIUM ST. This paper presents this obsolescence treatment, which has started in 2007 under an ESA contract, in the frame of ACEP and ARTA accompaniment programmes, and is very critical in technical term but also from schedule point of view: it gives the context and overall development plan, and details the risk mitigation actions agreed with ESA, especially those related to the development of the input/output ASIC, and also the on-board software porting and revalidation strategy. The efficiency of these risk mitigation actions has been proven by the outcome schedule; this development constitutes an up-to-date case for good practices, including some experience report and feedback for future other developments.

  2. Risk Measures via Heavy Tails.

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ka?ková, Vlasta

    Bratislava : Vydavatelstvo EKONÓM, 2012 - (Reiff, M.), s. 115-119 ISBN 978-80-225-3426-0. [Quantitative Methods in Economics (Multiple Criteria Decision Making XVI). Bratislava (SK), 30.05.2012-01.06.2012] R&D Projects: GA ?R GAP402/10/0956; GA ?R GAP402/11/0150; GA ?R GAP402/10/1610 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Static stochastic optimization problems * linear and nonlinear dependence * thin and heavz tails Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research; AH - Economics (UTIA-B) http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/E/kankova- risk measures via heavy tails.pdf

  3. Risk measures and efficient use of capital

    OpenAIRE

    Artzner, Philippe; Delbaen, Freddy; Koch-Medina, Pablo

    2009-01-01

    This paper is concerned with clarifying the link between risk measurement and capital efficiency. For this purpose we introduce risk measurement as the minimum cost of making a position acceptable by adding an optimal combination of multiple eligible assets. Under certain assumptions, it is shown that these risk measures have properties similar to those of coherent risk measures. The motivation for this paper was the study of a multi-currency setting where it is natural to use simultaneously ...

  4. Measuring operational risk in financial institutions

    OpenAIRE

    Plunus, Séverine; Hübner, Georges; Peters, Jean-Philippe

    2012-01-01

    The scarcity of internal loss databases tends to hinder the use of the advanced approaches for operational risk measurement (Advanced Measurement Approaches (AMA)) in financial institutions. As there is a greater variety in credit risk modelling, this article explores the applicability of a modified version of CreditRisk+ to operational loss data. Our adapted model, OpRisk+, works out very satisfying Values-at-Risk (VaR) at 95% level as compared with estimates drawn from sophisticated AMA mod...

  5. Pollution Swapping in Agricultural Systems: deciding between mitigation measures with conflicting outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinton, John; Stevens, Carly

    2010-05-01

    Pollution swapping occurs when a mitigation option introduced to reduce one pollutant results in an increase in a different pollutant. Although the concept of pollution swapping is widely understood it has received little attention in research and policy design. This study investigated diffuse pollution mitigation options applied in combinable crop systems. They are: cover crops, residue management, no-tillage, riparian buffer zones, contour grass strips and constructed wetlands. A wide range of water and atmospheric pollutants were considered, including nitrogen, phosphorus, carbon and sulphur. It is clear from this investigation that there is no single mitigation option that will reduce all pollutants and in this poster we consider how choices may be made between mitigation measures which may have a positive effect on one pollutant but a negative effect on another.

  6. Physiological Implications, Performance Assessment and Risk Mitigation Strategies of Women in Combat-Centric Occupations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greeves, Julie P

    2015-11-01

    Greeves, JP. Physiological implications, performance assessment and risk mitigation strategies of women in combat-centric occupations. J Strength Cond Res 29(11S): S94-S100, 2015-Women have historically featured in military conflicts, but were not formally integrated into the military until the 20th century; occupations were mainly restricted to clerical or support roles. An increasing number of occupations have been opened to women and the higher physical demands of combat roles present new challenges. Inherent biological differences between sexes require women to work harder when undertaking the same tasks as men. This is reflected, in part, by the greater risk of musculoskeletal injuries of women observed notably during integrated military training. Gender "neutral" occupational standards, based on the physical requirements of the role, will ensure that women are suitably selected to cope with the demands of military tasks with a minimal risk of injury and to operational effectiveness. Initiatives such as reduced running mileage and single-sex training have contributed to a reduction in lower-limb musculoskeletal injuries, but the risk of injury remains higher in women. Nevertheless, women experience substantial gains in aerobic power and strength with appropriate and targeted training, narrowing the gap in physical performance between the sexes. Evidence-based occupational standards and optimal training programs provide short-term solutions for integrating women in support combat, and indeed direct combat roles. PMID:26506206

  7. Disease risk mitigation: the equivalence of two selective mixing strategies on aggregate contact patterns and resulting epidemic spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Benjamin R; Perrings, Charles; Levin, Simon; Kinzig, Ann

    2014-12-21

    The personal choices affecting the transmission of infectious diseases include the number of contacts an individual makes, and the risk-characteristics of those contacts. We consider whether these different choices have distinct implications for the course of an epidemic. We also consider whether choosing contact mitigation (how much to mix) and affinity mitigation (with whom to mix) strategies together has different epidemiological effects than choosing each separately. We use a set of differential equation compartmental models of the spread of disease, coupled with a model of selective mixing. We assess the consequences of varying contact or affinity mitigation as a response to disease risk. We do this by comparing disease incidence and dynamics under varying contact volume, contact type, and both combined across several different disease models. Specifically, we construct a change of variables that allows one to transition from contact mitigation to affinity mitigation, and vice versa. In the absence of asymptomatic infection we find no difference in the epidemiological impacts of the two forms of disease risk mitigation. Furthermore, since models that include both mitigation strategies are underdetermined, varying both results in no outcome that could not be reached by choosing either separately. Which strategy is actually chosen then depends not on their epidemiological consequences, but on the relative cost of reducing contact volume versus altering contact type. Although there is no fundamental epidemiological difference between the two forms of mitigation, the social cost of alternative strategies can be very different. From a social perspective, therefore, whether one strategy should be promoted over another depends on economic not epidemiological factors. PMID:25150459

  8. Effectiveness of mitigation measures with constructed forested wetlands in Maryland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, M.C.

    1997-01-01

    Intensive research on six constructed forested wetlands in Central Maryland was conducted in 1993-1996 to determine success of these habitats as functional forested wetlands for wildlife. Areas studied ranged in size from 2 to 35 acres and were constructed by private companies under contract with three mitigation agencies. Adjacent natural forested wetlands were used as reference sites where similar data were collected. Based on data from the first four years of this study it appears that it will take 35-50 years before these areas have forested wetland vegetation and wildlife similar to that found on mature forested wetlands. This long-time period is based on the high mortality and slow growth of nursery-stock trees and shrubs transplanted on the areas. Mortality and slow growth resulted mostly from excessive surface water on the sites. The level of ground water did not appear to be a factor in regard to transplant mortality. Green ash was the woody transplant species that had the least mortality. Sampling of vegetative ground cover with one-meter square quadrats showed the predominance of grasses and herbs. [abridged abstract

  9. The VUELCO project consortium: new interdisciplinary research for improved risk mitigation and management during volcanic unrest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottsmann, J.

    2012-04-01

    Volcanic unrest is a complex multi-hazard phenomenon of volcanism. The fact that unrest may, but not necessarily must lead to an imminent eruption contributes significant uncertainty to short-term hazard assessment of volcanic activity world-wide. Although it is reasonable to assume that all eruptions are associated with precursory activity of some sort, the knowledge of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting unrest signals and imminent eruption is, today, inadequate to deal effectively with crises of volcanic unrest. This results predominantly from the uncertainties in identifying the causative processes of unrest and as a consequence in forecasting its short-term evolution. However, key for effective risk mitigation and management during unrest is the early and reliable identification of changes in the subsurface dynamics of a volcano and their assessment as precursors to an impending eruption. The VUELCO project consortium has come together for a multi-disciplinary attack on the origin, nature and significance of volcanic unrest from the scientific contributions generated by collaboration of ten partners in Europe and Latin America. Dissecting the science of monitoring data from unrest periods at six type volcanoes in Italy, Spain, the West Indies, Mexico and Ecuador the consortium will create global strategies for 1) enhanced monitoring capacity and value, 2) mechanistic data interpretation and 3) identification of reliable eruption precursors; all from the geophysical, geochemical and geodetic fingerprints of unrest episodes. Experiments will establish a mechanistic understanding of subsurface processes capable of inducing unrest and aid in identifying key volcano monitoring parameters indicative of the nature of unrest processes. Numerical models will help establish a link between the processes and volcano monitoring data to inform on the causes of unrest and its short-term evolution. Using uncertainty assessment and new short-term probabilistic hazard forecasting tools the scientific knowledge base will provide the crucial parameters for a comprehensive and best-practice approach to 1) risk mitigation, 2) communication, 3) decision-making and 4) crisis management during unrest periods. The VUELCO project consortium efforts will generate guidance in the definition and implementation of strategic options for effective risk mitigation, management and governance during unrest episodes. Such a mechanistic platform of understanding, impacting on the synergy of scientists, policy-makers, civil protection authorities, decision-makers, and the public, will place volcanic unrest management on a new basis, with European expertise at its peak. The project is financed by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development, Area "Environment".

  10. Measuring, Reporting and Verifying Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions. Reflecting experiences under the Mitigation Momentum Project. Discussion paper

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Vit, C.; Roeser, F.; Fekete, H.; Hoehne, N.; Wartmann, S.; Van Tilburg, X.; Larkin, J.; Escalante, D.; Haensel, G.; Veum, K.; Cameron, L.; Halcomb, J.

    2013-06-15

    The Mitigation Momentum project aims to support the development of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs). It contributes to the concrete design of NAMA proposals in five countries (Peru, Chile, Indonesia, Tunisia and Kenya). A further aim is to foster cooperation and knowledge exchange within the NAMA community while advancing the international climate policy debate on mitigation and related issues, including approaches for the Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) of NAMAs. MRV enables the assessment of the effectiveness of both internationally supported NAMAs (supported NAMAs) and domestically supported NAMAs (unilateral NAMAs) by tracking NAMA impacts including greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions and non-GHG related impacts such as sustainable development benefits. MRV also supports improved policy design and decision making through systematic progress reporting and is a key tool to ensure accountability of NAMA stakeholders. Both host countries and funders share the common interest of having strong, implementable MRV systems in place. From both perspectives, this raises a number of questions, as well as potential challenges, on how to adapt the MRV approach to the specific circumstances of each NAMA. The objective of this paper is to identify open issues for the MRV of impacts of NAMAs, understood here as implementable actions, i.e. a project, a policy, a programme or a strategy. It pays particular attention to NAMAs with a supported component and reflects relevant initial experiences with developing NAMA proposals in the five Mitigation Momentum countries (i.e. using country examples where appropriate). As MRV systems for these NAMAs are still under development or at their preliminary stage, we hope to share further lessons learned in a subsequent discussion paper. Key challenges analysed in this paper include: How to design a MRV system that satisfies both the host country's and funder's expectations while complying with United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reporting requirements? How to draw the line between the MRV approach for unilateral components and the MRV approach for supported components given that many NAMAs are likely to have both unilateral as well as supported components? How to design a pragmatic, implementable MRV system, which is also robust? What does robustness mean in the context of the MRV of NAMAs? Current NAMA experiences show that responding to these challenges requires taking into account the variety of NAMAs, as illustrated by those submitted to the UNFCCC (including economy-wide GHG reduction goals, sectoral strategies, mitigation policies, individual projects, etc.), and countries' capacities. Although this paper does not aim to provide practical guidance, it will highlight areas where common guidance would be valuable to deal with such challenges. It will also point out areas where such guidance is limited de facto and where pragmatic approaches i.e. seeking a balance between robustness, feasibility and cost-effectiveness, may prove valuable to design feasible yet still robust MRV systems. Although this paper does not answer all questions it raises, it aims to offer innovative ways to respond to open issues, including through learning from country experiences. After a short introduction to basic MRV concepts and to the current status of discussions and experiences on MRV (Chapter 2), the paper is organised around key dimensions of MRV as recognised by MRV literature and UNFCCC texts: transparency (Chapter 3), robustness (Chapter 4), and feasibility and cost-effectiveness (Chapter 5). Challenges pertaining to these MRV dimensions are further explored in each chapter.

  11. Recommended Mitigation Measures for an Influenza Pandemic in Remote and Isolated First Nations Communities of Ontario, Canada: A Community-Based Participatory Research Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia A. Charania

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Influenza pandemics disproportionately impact remote and/or isolated Indigenous communities worldwide. The differential risk experienced by such communities warrants the recommendation of specific mitigation measures. Interviewer-administered questionnaires were conducted with adult key health care informants from three remote and isolated Canadian First Nations communities of sub-Arctic Ontario. Forty-eight mitigation measures (including the setting, pandemic period, trigger, and duration were questioned. Participants’ responses were summarized and collected data were deductively and inductively coded. The participants recommended 41 of the questioned mitigation measures, and often differed from previous literature and national recommendations. Results revealed that barriers, such as overcrowded housing, limited supplies, and health care infrastructure, impacted the feasibility of implementing mitigation measures. These findings suggest that pandemic plans should recommend control strategies for remote and isolated Canadian First Nations communities that may not be supported in other communities. These findings highlight the importance of engaging locally impacted populations using participatory approaches in policy decision-making processes. Other countries with remote and/or isolated Indigenous communities are encouraged to include recommendations for mitigation measures that specifically address the unique needs of such communities in an effort to improve their health outcomes during the next influenza pandemic.

  12. The Sensor Test for Orion RelNav Risk Mitigation Development Test Objective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christian, John A.; Hinkel, Heather; Maguire, Sean

    2011-01-01

    The Sensor Test for Orion Relative-Navigation Risk Mitigation (STORRM) Development Test Objective (DTO) ew aboard the Space Shuttle Endeavour on STS-134, and was designed to characterize the performance of the ash LIDAR being developed for the Orion. This ash LIDAR, called the Vision Navigation Sensor (VNS), will be the primary navigation instrument used by the Orion vehicle during rendezvous, proximity operations, and docking. This paper provides an overview of the STORRM test objectives and the concept of operations. It continues with a description of the STORRM's major hardware compo nents, which include the VNS and the docking camera. Next, an overview of crew and analyst training activities will describe how the STORRM team prepared for flight. Then an overview of how insight data collection and analysis actually went is presented. Key ndings and results from this project are summarized, including a description of "truth" data. Finally, the paper concludes with lessons learned from the STORRM DTO.

  13. Comparison of PAM Systems for Acoustic Monitoring and Further Risk Mitigation Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Stefan; Kreimeyer, Roman; Knoll, Michaela

    2016-01-01

    We present results of the SIRENA 2011 research cruises conducted by the NATO Undersea Research Centre (NURC) and joined by the Research Department for Underwater Acoustics and Geophysics (FWG), Bundeswehr Technical Centre (WTD 71) and the Universities of Kiel and Pavia. The cruises were carried out in the Ligurian Sea. The main aim of the FWG was to test and evaluate the newly developed towed hydrophone array as a passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) tool for risk mitigation applications. The system was compared with the PAM equipment used by the other participating institutions. Recorded sounds were used to improve an automatic acoustic classifier for marine mammals, and validated acoustic detections by observers were compared with the results of the classifier. PMID:26611016

  14. Effect of Wind Intermittency on the Electric Grid: Mitigating the Risk of Energy Deficits

    CERN Document Server

    George, Sam O; Nguyen, Scott V

    2010-01-01

    Successful implementation of California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) mandating 33 percent renewable energy generation by 2020 requires inclusion of a robust strategy to mitigate increased risk of energy deficits (blackouts) due to short time-scale (sub 1 hour) intermittencies in renewable energy sources. Of these RPS sources, wind energy has the fastest growth rate--over 25% year-over-year. If these growth trends continue, wind energy could make up 15 percent of California's energy portfolio by 2016 (wRPS15). However, the hour-to-hour variations in wind energy (speed) will create large hourly energy deficits that require installation of other, more predictable, compensation generation capacity and infrastructure. Compensating for the energy deficits of wRPS15 could potentially cost tens of billions in additional dollar-expenditure for fossil and / or nuclear generation capacity. There is a real possibility that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions will miss the California ...

  15. The economic value of One Health in relation to the mitigation of zoonotic disease risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Häsler, Barbara; Gilbert, William; Jones, Bryony Anne; Pfeiffer, Dirk Udo; Rushton, Jonathan; Otte, Martin Joachim

    2013-01-01

    The essence of One Health is an interdisciplinary approach combined with some degree of intersectoral integration that is aimed at mitigation of human and animal health risks, taking account of environmental, ecological, social and economic factors. While a large number of international stakeholders now consider the One Health approach necessary for more effective protection of the global community against health threats, there is still no systematic allocation of resources to integrated national or multinational programmes, partly due to the inertia of existing sectoral systems and the lack of convincing economic arguments in support of the approach. We propose different degrees of sectoral integration depending on system types and associated economic efficiency gains to be expected from a One Health approach. International and regional organisations have an important role in facilitating the adoption of the approach, since the costs and the benefits are often of a regional or even a global nature, such as in the case of avian influenza. PMID:24264885

  16. Pets' Impact on Your Patients' Health: Leveraging Benefits and Mitigating Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgson, Kate; Barton, Luisa; Darling, Marcia; Antao, Viola; Kim, Florence A; Monavvari, Alan

    2015-01-01

    Over two thirds of Americans live with pets and consider them important members of the family. Pets benefit human health (zooeyia) in 4 ways: as builders of social capital, as agents of harm reduction, as motivators for healthy behavior change, and as potential participants in treatment plans. Conversely, pets can present risks to their owners. They are potential sources of zoonotic disease and injury. Pets can also challenge a family's prioritization of financial and social resources. To activate the benefits of zooeyia and appropriately calibrate and mitigate zoonotic risk, physicians first need to know about the pets in their patients' families. Asking about pets is a simple and feasible approach to assess patients' environmental history and social capital. Asking about pets is a nonthreatening way to build rapport and demonstrates an interest in the whole family, which can improve the physician-patient therapeutic alliance. Physicians can use an interprofessional, collaborative approach with veterinarians to address zoonotic health risks and leverage zooeyia. PMID:26152446

  17. Risk Measures for Autocorrelated Hedge Fund Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Di Cesare, A.; Stork, Ph.A.; Vries, C. G. de

    2011-01-01

    Standard risk metrics tend to underestimate the true risks of hedge funds because of serial correlation in the reported returns. Getmansky et al. (2004) derive mean, variance, Sharpe ratio, and beta formulae adjusted for serial correlation. Following their lead, adjusted downside and global measures of individual and systemic risks are derived. We distinguish between normally and fat tailed distributed returns and show that adjustment is particularly relevant for downside risk measures in the...

  18. Stochastic optimized life cycle models for risk mitigation in power system applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This ork shows the relevance of stochastic optimization in complex power system applications. It was proven that usual deterministic mean value models not only predict inaccurate results but are also most often on the risky side. The change in the market effects all kind of evaluation processes (e.g. fuel type and technology but especially financial engineering evaluations) in the endeavor of a strict risk mitigation comparison. But not only IPPs also traditional Utilities dash for risk/return optimized investment opportunities. In this study I developed a 2-phase model which can support a decision-maker in finding optimal solutions on investment and profitability. It has to be stated, that in this study no objective function will be optimized in an algorithmically way. On the one hand focus is laid on finding optimal solutions out of different choices (highest return at lowest possible risk); on the other hand the endeavor was to provide a decision makers with a better assessment of the likelihood of outcomes on investment considerations. The first (deterministic) phase computes in a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) approach (Life cycle Calculation; DCF method). Most of the causal relations (day of operation, escalation of personal expanses, inflation, depreciation period, etc.) are defined within this phase. The second (stochastic) phase is a total new way in optimizing risk/return relations. With the some decision theory mathematics an expected value of stochastic solutions can be calculated. Furthermore probability function have to be defined out of historical data. The model not only supports profitability analysis (including regress and sensitivity analysis) but also supports a decision-maker in a decision process. Emphasis was laid on risk-return analysis, which can give the decision-maker first hand informations of the type of risk return problem (risk concave, averse or linear). Five important parameters were chosen which have the characteristics of typical prospective unpredictability. Other parameters which are not typical totally uncertain in the future are handled within the deterministic live cycle model (parameters such as escalation of insurance costs, personal costs, etc.). One major result in comparing the deterministic with a stochastic calculation was that without changing a mean value parameter the result of stochastic calculation can vary from the deterministic calculation tremendously. In this study I proved that such tools for risk/return analysis could provide helpful informations to a decision-maker. The only major prerequisite for a good solution is that the user has reliable statistical empirical data available and that he spends in fitting the distribution curves to these. (author)

  19. Severe accident approach - final report. Evaluation of design measures for severe accident prevention and consequence mitigation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tentner, A. M.; Parma, E.; Wei, T.; Wigeland, R.; Nuclear Engineering Division; SNL; INL

    2010-03-01

    An important goal of the US DOE reactor development program is to conceptualize advanced safety design features for a demonstration Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR). The treatment of severe accidents is one of the key safety issues in the design approach for advanced SFR systems. It is necessary to develop an in-depth understanding of the risk of severe accidents for the SFR so that appropriate risk management measures can be implemented early in the design process. This report presents the results of a review of the SFR features and phenomena that directly influence the sequence of events during a postulated severe accident. The report identifies the safety features used or proposed for various SFR designs in the US and worldwide for the prevention and/or mitigation of Core Disruptive Accidents (CDA). The report provides an overview of the current SFR safety approaches and the role of severe accidents. Mutual understanding of these design features and safety approaches is necessary for future collaborations between the US and its international partners as part of the GEN IV program. The report also reviews the basis for an integrated safety approach to severe accidents for the SFR that reflects the safety design knowledge gained in the US during the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor (ALMR) and Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) programs. This approach relies on inherent reactor and plant safety performance characteristics to provide additional safety margins. The goal of this approach is to prevent development of severe accident conditions, even in the event of initiators with safety system failures previously recognized to lead directly to reactor damage.

  20. Geologic carbon sequestration as a global strategy to mitigate CO2 emissions: Sustainability and environmental risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oldenburg, C.M.

    2011-04-01

    Fossil fuels are abundant, inexpensive to produce, and are easily converted to usable energy by combustion as demonstrated by mankind's dependence on fossil fuels for over 80% of its primary energy supply (13). This reliance on fossil fuels comes with the cost of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions that exceed the rate at which CO{sub 2} can be absorbed by terrestrial and oceanic systems worldwide resulting in increases in atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration as recorded by direct measurements over more than five decades (14). Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas linked to global warming and associated climate change, the impacts of which are currently being observed around the world, and projections of which include alarming consequences such as water and food shortages, sea level rise, and social disruptions associated with resource scarcity (15). The current situation of a world that derives the bulk of its energy from fossil fuel in a manner that directly causes climate change equates to an energy-climate crisis. Although governments around the world have only recently begun to consider policies to avoid the direst projections of climate change and its impacts, sustainable approaches to addressing the crisis are available. The common thread of feasible strategies to the energy climate crisis is the simultaneous use of multiple approaches based on available technologies (e.g., 16). Efficiency improvements (e.g., in building energy use), increased use of natural gas relative to coal, and increased development of renewables such as solar, wind, and geothermal, along with nuclear energy, are all available options that will reduce net CO{sub 2} emissions. While improvements in efficiency can be made rapidly and will pay for themselves, the slower pace of change and greater monetary costs associated with increased use of renewables and nuclear energy suggests an additional approach is needed to help bridge the time period between the present and a future when low-carbon energy is considered cheap enough to replace fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is one such bridging technology (1). CCS has been the focus of an increasing amount of research over the last 15-20 years and is the subject of a comprehensive IPCC report that thoroughly covers the subject (1). CCS is currently being carried out in several countries around the world in conjunction with natural gas extraction (e.g., 2, 3) and enhanced oil recovery (17). Despite this progress, widespread deployment of CCS remains the subject of research and future plans rather than present action on the scale needed to mitigate emissions from the perspective of climate change. The reasons for delay in deploying CCS more widely are concerns about cost (18), regulatory and legal uncertainty (19), and potential environmental impacts (21). This chapter discusses the long-term (decadal) sustainability and environmental hazards associated with the geologic CO{sub 2} storage (GCS) component of large-scale CCS (e.g., 20). Discussion here barely touches on capture and transport of CO{sub 2} which will occur above ground and which are similar to existing engineering, chemical processing, and pipeline transport activities and are therefore easier to evaluate with respect to risk assessment and feasibility. The focus of this chapter is on the more uncertain part of CCS, namely geologic storage. The primary concern for sustainability of GCS is whether there is sufficient capacity in sedimentary basins worldwide to contain the large of amounts of CO{sub 2} needed to address climate change. But there is also a link between sustainability and environmental impacts. Specifically, if GCS is found to cause unacceptable impacts that are considered worse than its climate-change mitigation benefits, the approach will not be widely adopted. Hence, GCS has elements of sustainability insofar as capacity of the subsurface for CO{sub 2} is concerned, and also in terms of whether the associated environmental risks are acceptable or not to the public.

  1. Making the Handoff from Earthquake Hazard Assessments to Effective Mitigation Measures (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Applegate, D.

    2010-12-01

    This year has witnessed a barrage of large earthquakes worldwide with the resulting damages ranging from inconsequential to truly catastrophic. We cannot predict when earthquakes will strike, but we can build communities that are resilient to strong shaking as well as to secondary hazards such as landslides and liquefaction. The contrasting impacts of the magnitude-7 earthquake that struck Haiti in January and the magnitude-8.8 event that struck Chile in April underscore the difference that mitigation and preparedness can make. In both cases, millions of people were exposed to severe shaking, but deaths in Chile were measured in the hundreds rather than the hundreds of thousands that perished in Haiti. Numerous factors contributed to these disparate outcomes, but the most significant is the presence of strong building codes in Chile and their total absence in Haiti. The financial cost of the Chilean earthquake still represents an unacceptably high percentage of that nation’s gross domestic product, a reminder that life safety is the paramount, but not the only, goal of disaster risk reduction measures. For building codes to be effective, both in terms of lives saved and economic cost, they need to reflect the hazard as accurately as possible. As one of four federal agencies that make up the congressionally mandated National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) develops national seismic hazard maps that form the basis for seismic provisions in model building codes through the Federal Emergency Management Agency and private-sector practitioners. This cooperation is central to NEHRP, which both fosters earthquake research and establishes pathways to translate research results into implementation measures. That translation depends on the ability of hazard-focused scientists to interact and develop mutual trust with risk-focused engineers and planners. Strengthening that interaction is an opportunity for the next generation of earthquake scientists and engineers. In addition to the national maps, the USGS produces more detailed urban seismic hazard maps that communities have used to prioritize retrofits and design critical infrastructure that can withstand large earthquakes. At a regional scale, the USGS and its partners in California have developed a time-dependent earthquake rupture forecast that is being used by the insurance sector, which can serve to distribute risk and foster mitigation if the right incentives are in place. What the USGS and partners are doing at the urban, regional, and national scales, the Global Earthquake Model project is seeking to do for the world. A significant challenge for engaging the public to prepare for earthquakes is making low-probability, high-consequence events real enough to merit personal action. Scenarios help by starting with the hazard posed by a specific earthquake and then exploring the fragility of the built environment, cascading failures, and the real-life consequences for the public. To generate such a complete picture takes multiple disciplines working together. Earthquake scenarios are being used both for emergency management exercises and much broader public preparedness efforts like the Great California ShakeOut, which engaged nearly 7 million people.

  2. Implications of Climate Change Impacts on Regional Maize Production in the United States: Risk Mitigation Strategies and Food Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang Li

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Analyzing the impacts of climate change on regional maize production in the North Central and the South regions of the United States and proposing risk mitigation strategies have significant implications in the context of national and global food security. Unlike most estimation, we use an interdisciplinary approach and combine climatic variables along with economic inputs and technological improvement in the adapted Cobb-Douglas production function model. The production function is simulated through 2030 under a variety of climate change scenarios, and the results indicate that under the climate change South region tends to have opposite impacts relative to the North Central, the major maize production region in the United States. The results imply that one region’s losses can be partially offset by the other region’s gains. The different responses imply that the South region could provide potential risk mitigation to climate change within the United States and could help the nation and the world maintain maize supply stability. The results gained from this research could be used as cost-efficient climate change risk mitigation strategies for other agricultural commodities in other countries. They can also be used for public policies and advanced risk mitigation and diversification programs, and are expected to contribute to the sustainability of agriculture and the stability of international crop market price in the United States and the world.

  3. Measurements of electron cloud growth and mitigation in dipole, quadrupole, and wiggler magnets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Retarding field analyzers (RFAs), which provide a localized measurement of the electron cloud, have been installed throughout the Cornell Electron Storage Ring (CESR), in different magnetic field environments. This paper describes the RFA designs developed for dipole, quadrupole, and wiggler field regions, and provides an overview of measurements made in each environment. The effectiveness of electron cloud mitigations, including coatings, grooves, and clearing electrodes, are assessed with the RFA measurements

  4. Feasibility study on earthquake early warning and operational earthquake forecasting for risk mitigation at nuclear power plants

    OpenAIRE

    Cauzzi, Carlo; Behr, Yannik; Clinton, John Francis; Le Guenan, Thomas; Douglas, John; Auclair, Samuel; Wiemer, Stefan; Wössner, Jochen; Caprio, Marta; Cua, Georgia

    2014-01-01

    Within the framework of the EC-funded project REAKT (Strategies and Tools for Real Time Earthquake Risk Reduction, FP7, contract no. 282862, 2011-2014, www.reaktproject.eu), a task concerns feasibility study and initial implementation of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) and timedependent seismic hazard analyses aimed at mitigating seismic risk at nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Switzerland. This study is jointly carried out by academic institutions (the Swiss Seismological Service at ETHZ and BR...

  5. Program for Prediction, Prevention and Mitigation of Forest Fire and Flood risk in Albania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Centoducati, C.; D'Angelo, L.; Deda, M.; Ferraris, L.; Fiori, E.; Gjonaj, M.; Kelmendi, S.; Massabò, M.; Olli, A.; Siccardi, F.

    2012-04-01

    The rationale lying behind the program jointly managed by the Albanian and the Italian Civil protections is that of strengthening the Albanian National System for the prediction and prevention of forest fires and flooding. This is an initiative of the Italian government aimed at implementing in Albania the systems currently used by the Italian National "Functional Centers". The "Functional Centers" are the Operations Centers in charge for assessment forecasting, and surveillance of natural and man-made risks and represent a key component of the Italian Civil Protection System. CIMA Foundation is acting in its capacity as Executing Agency of the Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC) in the framework of the International Cooperation between the two Countries. CIMA Foundation has been founded by DPC and the University of Genoa with the aim of advancing the scientific research and technical development, high profile engineering and environmental science education, whose ultimate goal is to guarantee public health and safety as well as to safeguard land and sea ecosystems. The "Program for Prediction, Prevention and Mitigation of Forest Fire and Flood risk in Albania" addresses four objectives: Object 1- to establish a National Center for Forecasting and Monitoring of Natural Risk/National Functional Center, a National Operations Center and two Regional Operations Centers; Object 2 to design and to implement an intensive training programme for risk assessment and management; Object 3 - to adapt the Italian Early Warning System for forest fires to the whole Albanian territory; Object 4 - to adapt the Italian Early Warning System for flooding to the Buna river and the Shkodra region, the latter recently affected by two disastrous floods.

  6. How HRP Research Results Contribute to Human Space Exploration Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lumpkins, Sarah; Mindock, Jennifer

    2014-01-01

    In addition to the scientific value of publications derived from research, results from Human Research Program (HRP) research also support HRP's goals of mitigating crew health and performance risks in space flight. Research results are used to build the evidence base characterizing crew health and performance risks, to support risk research plan development, to inform crew health and performance standards, and to provide technologies to programs for meeting those standards and optimizing crew health and performance in space. This talk will describe examples of how research results support these efforts. For example, HRP research results are used to revise or even create new standards for human space flight, which have been established to protect crew health and performance during flight, and prevent negative long-term health consequences due to space flight. These standards are based on the best available clinical and scientific evidence, as well as operational experience from previous space flight missions, and are reviewed as new evidence emerges. Research results are also used to update the HRP evidence base, which is comprised of a set of reports that provide a current record of the state of knowledge from research and operations for each of the defined human health and performance risks for future NASA exploration missions. A discussion of the role of evidence within the HRP architecture will also be presented. The scope of HRP research results extends well beyond publications, as they are used in several capacities to support HRP deliverables and, ultimately, the advancement of human space exploration beyond low-Earth orbit.

  7. Diarrhoeal Health Risks Attributable to Water-Borne-Pathogens in Arsenic-Mitigated Drinking Water in West Bengal are Largely Independent of the Microbiological Quality of the Supplied Water

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debapriya Mondal

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available There is a growing discussion about the possibility of arsenic mitigation measures in Bengal and similar areas leading to undesirable substitution of water-borne-pathogen attributable risks pathogens for risks attributable to arsenic, in part because of uncertainties in relative pathogen concentrations in supplied and end-use water. We try to resolve this discussion, by assessing the relative contributions of water supply and end-user practices to water-borne-pathogen-attributable risks for arsenic mitigation options in a groundwater arsenic impacted area of West Bengal. Paired supplied arsenic-mitigated water and end-use drinking water samples from 102 households were collected and analyzed for arsenic and thermally tolerant coliforms [TTC], used as a proxy for microbiological water quality, We then estimated the DALYs related to key sequelae, diarrheal diseases and cancers, arising from water-borne pathogens and arsenic respectively. We found [TTC] in end-use drinking water to depend only weakly on [TTC] in source-water. End-user practices far outweighed the microbiological quality of supplied water in determining diarrheal disease burden. [TTC] in source water was calculated to contribute <1% of total diarrheal disease burden. No substantial demonstrable pathogen-for-arsenic risk substitution attributable to specific arsenic mitigation of supplied waters was observed, illustrating the benefits of arsenic mitigation measures in the area studied.

  8. Arsenic contamination of groundwater: a review of sources, prevalence, health risks, and strategies for mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shankar, Shiv; Shanker, Uma; Shikha

    2014-01-01

    Arsenic contamination of groundwater in different parts of the world is an outcome of natural and/or anthropogenic sources, leading to adverse effects on human health and ecosystem. Millions of people from different countries are heavily dependent on groundwater containing elevated level of As for drinking purposes. As contamination of groundwater, poses a serious risk to human health. Excessive and prolonged exposure of inorganic As with drinking water is causing arsenicosis, a deteriorating and disabling disease characterized by skin lesions and pigmentation of the skin, patches on palm of the hands and soles of the feet. Arsenic poisoning culminates into potentially fatal diseases like skin and internal cancers. This paper reviews sources, speciation, and mobility of As and global overview of groundwater As contamination. The paper also critically reviews the As led human health risks, its uptake, metabolism, and toxicity mechanisms. The paper provides an overview of the state-of-the-art knowledge on the alternative As free drinking water and various technologies (oxidation, coagulation flocculation, adsorption, and microbial) for mitigation of the problem of As contamination of groundwater. PMID:25374935

  9. Supporting Technology at GRC to Mitigate Risk as Stirling Power Conversion Transitions to Flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schreiber, Jeffrey G.; Thieme, Lanny G.; Wong, Wayne A.

    2009-01-01

    Stirling power conversion technology has been reaching more advanced levels of maturity during its development for space power applications. The current effort is in support of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG), which is being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company (LMSSC), Sunpower Inc., and the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). This generator would use two high-efficiency Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASCs) to convert thermal energy from a radioisotope heat source into electricity. Of paramount importance is the reliability of the power system and as a part of this, the Stirling power convertors. GRC has established a supporting technology effort with tasks in the areas of reliability, convertor testing, high-temperature materials, structures, advanced analysis, organics, and permanent magnets. The project utilizes the matrix system at GRC to make use of resident experts in each of the aforementioned fields. Each task is intended to reduce risk and enhance reliability of the convertor as this technology transitions toward flight status. This paper will provide an overview of each task, outline the recent efforts and accomplishments, and show how they mitigate risk and impact the reliability of the ASC s and ultimately, the ASRG.

  10. Mitigating the Risk of Extreme Water Scarcity and Dependency: The Case of Jordan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joep F. Schyns

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Jordan faces great internal water scarcity and pollution, conflict over trans-boundary waters, and strong dependency on external water resources through trade. This paper analyzes these issues and subsequently reviews options to reduce the risk of extreme water scarcity and dependency. Based on estimates of water footprint, water availability, and virtual water trade, we find that groundwater consumption is nearly double the groundwater availability, water pollution aggravates blue water scarcity, and Jordan’s external virtual water import dependency is 86%. The review of response options yields 10 ingredients for a strategy for Jordan to mitigate the risks of extreme water scarcity and dependency. With respect to these ingredients, Jordan’s current water policy requires a strong redirection towards water demand management. Actual implementation of the plans in the national water strategy (against existing oppositions would be a first step. However, more attention should be paid to reducing water demand by changing the consumption pattern of Jordanian consumers. Moreover, unsustainable exploitation of the fossil Disi aquifer should soon be halted and planned desalination projects require careful consideration regarding the sustainability of their energy supply.

  11. From Smile Asymptotics to Market Risk Measures

    CERN Document Server

    Sircar, Ronnie

    2011-01-01

    The left tail of the implied volatility skew, coming from quotes on out-of-the-money put options, can be thought to reflect the market's assessment of the risk of a huge drop in stock prices. We analyze how this market information can be integrated into the theoretical framework of convex monetary measures of risk. In particular, we make use of indifference pricing by dynamic convex risk measures, which are given as solutions of backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs), to establish a link between these two approaches to risk measurement. We derive a characterization of the implied volatility in terms of the solution of a nonlinear PDE and provide a small time-to-maturity expansion and numerical solutions. This procedure allows to choose convex risk measures in a conveniently parametrized class, distorted entropic dynamic risk measures, which we introduce here, such that the asymptotic volatility skew under indifference pricing can be matched with the market skew.

  12. Simvastatin mitigates increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease following 10 Gy total body irradiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenarczyk, Marek; Su, Jidong; Haworth, Steven T; Komorowski, Richard; Fish, Brian L; Migrino, Raymond Q; Harmann, Leanne; Hopewell, John W; Kronenberg, Amy; Patel, Shailendra; Moulder, John E; Baker, John E

    2015-01-01

    The ability of simvastatin to mitigate the increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease after 10 Gy total body irradiation (TBI) was determined. This radiation dose is relevant to conditioning for stem cell transplantation and threats from radiological terrorism. Male rats received single dose TBI of 10 Gy. Age-matched, sham-irradiated rats served as controls. Lipid profile, heart and liver morphology and cardiac mechanical function were determined for up to 120 days after irradiation. TBI resulted in a sustained increase in total- and LDL-cholesterol (low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol), and triglycerides. Simvastatin (10 mg/kg body weight/day) administered continuously from 9 days after irradiation mitigated TBI-induced increases in total- and LDL-cholesterol and triglycerides, as well as liver injury. TBI resulted in cellular peri-arterial fibrosis, whereas control hearts had less collagen and fibrosis. Simvastatin mitigated these morphological injuries. TBI resulted in cardiac mechanical dysfunction. Simvastatin mitigated cardiac mechanical dysfunction 20–120 days following TBI. To determine whether simvastatin affects the ability of the heart to withstand stress after TBI, injury from myocardial ischemia/reperfusion was determined in vitro. TBI increased the severity of an induced myocardial infarction at 20 and 80 days after irradiation. Simvastatin mitigated the severity of this myocardial infarction at 20 and 80 days following TBI. It is concluded simvastatin mitigated the increases in risk factors for cardiac disease and the extent of cardiac disease following TBI. This statin may be developed as a medical countermeasure for the mitigation of radiation-induced cardiac disease. PMID:26171225

  13. Tree nut allergy: risk factors for development, mitigation of reaction risk and current efforts in desensitization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Mona; Burks, A Wesley; Green, Todd D

    2015-05-01

    Allergy to tree nuts has grown widespread among patients, specifically in the pediatric population, in recent years. In this review, we evaluate and summarize the literature specific to development and treatment of tree nut allergy. The cause of tree nut allergy, such as most food allergies, is unknown; there are theories regarding maternal dietary factors as well as sensitization related to cross-reactivity to peanut allergens. The gold standard for the diagnosis of tree nut allergy is the double-blind, placebo-controlled, oral food challenge; however, simpler and more cost-effective diagnostic methods, such as the skin prick test and serum-specific IgE are often used as a supplement for diagnosis. Management of tree nut allergy consists of dietary avoidance and using epinephrine to manage serious allergic reactions. Alternative therapeutic methods, such as oral and sublingual immunotherapy and modification of allergenic proteins are being explored to develop safer, more effective and long-lasting management of tree nut allergy. We comment on the current studies involving risk factors for sensitization, diagnosis and management of tree nut allergy. PMID:25824522

  14. Multiple-pollutant cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gas mitigation measures in the UK agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ? Multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curves can inform integrated environmental policy. ? We incorporated the co-effects on NH3, NO3?, P and sediment, as monetary values, into the UK GHG MACC. ? Adding co-effects modifies the GHG MACC, though with little impact unless using high damage values. ? Further research is needed on the co-effects of GHG mitigation measures and on damage values. ? Analysis should focus on the co-effects of measures that are slightly above or below the threshold. -- Abstract: This paper develops multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curve analysis to identify an optimal set of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures considering the trade-offs and synergies with other environmental pollutants. The analysis is applied to UK agriculture, a sector expected to make a contribution to the national GHG mitigation effort. Previous analyses using marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) have determined the sector's GHG abatement potential based on the cost-effectiveness of a variety of technically feasible mitigation measures. Most of these measures have external effects on other pollution loads arising from agricultural activities. Here the monetary values of four of the most important impacts to water and air (specifically ammonia, nitrate, phosphorous and sediment) are included in the cost-effectiveness analysis. The resulting multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curve (MP MACC) informs the design of sustainable climate change policies by showing how the MP MACC for the UK agriculture can differ from the GHG MACC. The analysis also highlights research gaps, and suggests a need to understand the wider environmental effects of GHG mitigation options and to reduce the uncertainty in pollutant damage cost estimates

  15. Biodosimetry as a New Paradigm for Determination of Radiation Risks and Risk-Mitigation in Astronauts Exposed to Space Radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, Robert; Cruz, Angela; Bors, Karen

    2004-01-01

    Predicting risk of cancer in astronauts exposed to space radiation is challenging partly because uncertainties of absorption of dose and the processing of dose-related damage at the cellular level degrade the confidence of predicting the expression of cancer. Cellular biodosimeters that simultaneously report: 1) the quantity of absorbed dose after exposure to ionizing radiation, 2) the quality of radiation delivering that dose, and 3) the macromolecular profiles related to malignant transformation in cells absorbing that dose would therefore be useful. An approach to such a multiparametric biodosimeter will be reported, This is the demonstration of two dose-responsive field-effects of enhanced protein-expression. In one case, expression of keratin 18 (K18) in cultures of human mammary epithelial cells (HMEC) irradiated with cesium-137 gamma-rays is enhanced following exposure of log phase cells to relatively low doses of 30 to 90 cGy. K18 has been reported by a marker for tumor staging and for apoptosis. In the second case, expression of connexin 43 (Cx43) is increased in irradiated stationary phase cultures of HMEC, indicating enhanced formation of gap junctions. Gap junctions have been reported to be involved in bystander effects following irradiation. It is a biodosimeter for assessing radiogenic damage. It is suggested further that such biomolecular dosimetry may introduce a new paradigm for assessing cancer risk and risk-mitigation in individuals, a requirement for managing radiation health in astronauts during extended missions in space. This new paradigm is built upon the statistical power provided by the use of functional genomics and proteomics represented in combined gene- and protein-expression assays.

  16. A review of selected state of the art applications of diagnostic measurements for radon mitigation planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Air and Energy Engineering Laboratory of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has, since the fall of 1984, supported a program to develop and demonstrate radon mitigation techniques for single family detached dwellings. To date approximately sixty houses with radon concentrations ranging from 20 to 600 rhoCi/L (740-22,000 Bq/m/sup -3/) have been investigated and have had radon mitigation plans developed for demonstration purposes. This paper compares and evaluates the relative utility of selected diagnostic measurements used by EPA contractors in their efforts to understand the indoor radon problem and select the most appropriate mitigation for a specific house. The diagnostic measurements reported include: grab sampling of infiltrating soil gas from cracks or openings around utility entries to below-grade house structure, and of soil gas under the slab and in hollow walls, air flow and air communications measurements using depressurization under basement floors and around walls, whole house infiltration (leakage area) measurements, differential pressure measurements between various zones inside and outside the house, gamma measurements, and radon flux measurements over exposed soil and through basement walls and floors

  17. Risk measures with non-Gaussian fluctuations

    OpenAIRE

    Bormetti, G.; Cisana, E.; Montagna, G.; Nicrosini, O.

    2006-01-01

    Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modeling the power-law tails of the returns distribution in terms of a Student-$t$ (or Tsallis) distribution. Non-Gaussian closed-form solutions for Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall are obtained and standard formulae known in the literature under the normality assump...

  18. Cooperative measures to mitigate Asia-Pacific maritime conflicts.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chai, Wen-Chung (Taiwan Navy)

    2003-05-01

    The economies of East Asia are predominantly export based and, therefore, place special emphasis on the security of the sea lines of communication (SLOCs). Due to economic globalization, the United States shares these concerns. Cooperative measures by the concerned parties could reduce the potential for disruption by maritime conflicts. Primary threats against the SLOCs are disputes over the resources under the seas, disputes over some small island groups, disputes between particular parties (China-Taiwan and North-South Korea), or illegal activities like smuggling, piracy, or terrorism. This paper provides an overview on these threats, issue by issue, to identify common elements and needed cooperation. Cooperation on other topics such as search and rescue, fisheries protection, and oil spill response may help support improved relations to prevent maritime conflicts. Many technologies can help support maritime cooperation, including improved communications links, tracking and emergency beacon devices, and satellite imaging. Appropriate technical and political means are suggested for each threat to the SLOCs.

  19. Measurements of Electron Cloud Growth and Mitigation in Dipole, Quadrupole, and Wiggler Magnets

    OpenAIRE

    Calvey, J. R.; W. Hartung; Li, Y.; Livezey, J. A.; Makita, J.; Palmer, M.A.; Rubin, D.

    2014-01-01

    Retarding field analyzers (RFAs), which provide a localized measurement of the electron cloud, have been installed throughout the Cornell Electron Storage Ring (CESR), in different magnetic field environments. This paper describes the RFA designs developed for dipole, quadrupole, and wiggler field regions, and provides an overview of measurements made in each environment. The effectiveness of electron cloud mitigations, including coatings, grooves, and clearing electrodes, a...

  20. Challenges for integrated assessment and Cost-Effectiveness analysis of mitigation measures for controlling water pollution

    OpenAIRE

    Lescot, J.M.; Leccia, O.; Vernier, F.

    2013-01-01

    Identification of challenges for integrated assessment of mitigation measures proposed to improve the ecological and chemical status of water bodies is explored in this paper. These challenges are addressed within a framework proposed for a spatially-distributed cost and effectiveness analysis. Resulting environmental and economic impacts of the implementation of measures are assessed using agro-hydrological and bio-economic modelling with effectiveness and costs calculated at each sub basin ...

  1. Measures of risk importance and their applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This work is part of a project being conducted for the Division of Risk Analysis (DRA) of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The objectives of the project are to evaluate the importances of containment, the different safety functions, and other various contributers as assessed in probabilistic risk analyses and to identify generic conclusions regarding the importances. Effective display of the importances is an important part of these objectives. To address these objectives, measures of risk importance need to be first identified and then they need to be evaluated for the different risk analyses which have been performed. This report describes the risk importance measures that were defined and were applied to the risk analyses which were performed as part of the Reactor Safety Study Methodology Applications Program (RSSMAP). The risk importance measures defined in this report measure the importance of features not only with regard to risk reduction but also with regard to reliability assurance, or risk maintenance. The goal of this report is not to identify new mathematical formulas for risk importance but to show how importance measures can be interpreted and can be applied

  2. Sophisticated vs. Simple Systemic Risk Measures

    OpenAIRE

    David Pankoke

    2014-01-01

    This paper evaluates whether sophisticated or simple systemic risk measures are more suitable in identifying which institutions contribute to systemic risk. In this investigation, DCoVaR, Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES), SRISK and Granger-Causality Networks are considered as sophisticated systemic risk measures. Market capitalization, total debt, leverage, the stock market returns of an institution, and the correlation between the stock market returns of an institution and the market, are c...

  3. Developing a Measure of Perceived Environmental Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, John Michael; Hair, Joseph F., Jr.; Fowler, Claudia R.

    2000-01-01

    Conceptually and empirically develops a scale that measures perceptions of environmental risk (PER). This type of scale is important because it provides a general overview of the present state of perceptions regarding environmental risk and measures of specific environmental issues. (Author/SAH)

  4. Role of the Internet in Anticipating and Mitigating Earthquake Catastrophes, and the Emergence of Personal Risk Management (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Donnellan, A.; Graves, W.; Tiampo, K. F.; Klein, W.

    2009-12-01

    Risks from natural and financial catastrophes are currently managed by a combination of large public and private institutions. Public institutions usually are comprised of government agencies that conduct studies, formulate policies and guidelines, enforce regulations, and make “official” forecasts. Private institutions include insurance and reinsurance companies, and financial service companies that underwrite catastrophe (“cat”) bonds, and make private forecasts. Although decisions about allocating resources and developing solutions are made by large institutions, the costs of dealing with catastrophes generally fall for the most part on businesses and the general public. Information on potential risks is generally available to the public for some hazards but not others. For example, in the case of weather, private forecast services are provided by www.weather.com and www.wunderground.com. For earthquakes in California (only), the official forecast is the WGCEP-USGS forecast, but provided in a format that is difficult for the public to use. Other privately made forecasts are currently available, for example by the JPL QuakeSim and Russian groups, but these efforts are limited. As more of the world’s population moves increasingly into major seismic zones, new strategies are needed to allow individuals to manage their personal risk from large and damaging earthquakes. Examples include individual mitigation measures such as retrofitting, as well as microinsurance in both developing and developed countries, as well as other financial strategies. We argue that the “long tail” of the internet offers an ideal, and greatly underutilized mechanism to reach out to consumers and to provide them with the information and tools they need to confront and manage seismic hazard and risk on an individual, personalized basis. Information of this type includes not only global hazard forecasts, which are now possible, but also global risk estimation. Additionally, social networking tools are available that will allow self-organizing, disaster-resilient communities to arise as emergent structures from the underlying nonlinear social dynamics. In this talk, we argue that the current style of risk management is not making adequate use of modern internet technology, and that significantly more can be done. We suggest several avenues to proceed, in particular making use of the internet for earthquake forecast and information delivery, as well as tracking forecast validation and verification on a real-time basis. We also show examples of forecasts delivered over the internet, and describe how these are made.

  5. Health care workers and researchers traveling to developing-world clinical settings: disease transmission risk and mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kortepeter, Mark G; Seaworth, Barbara J; Tasker, Sybil A; Burgess, Timothy H; Coldren, Rodney L; Aronson, Naomi E

    2010-12-01

    With the recent emphasis on funding and training opportunities for global health and humanitarian aid and the increased interest in the field, many health care workers and medical researchers are traveling from resource-replete to resource-limited settings. This type of travel brings unique disease risks not routinely considered for the business or vacationing traveler. This review provides practical advice for this special population of travelers, targeted to specific health care-related risks (needlestick, hemorrhagic fever viruses, severe viral respiratory disease, and tuberculosis), with suggestions for risk mitigation. PMID:21039283

  6. Measuring reporting verifying. A primer on MRV for nationally appropriate mitigation actions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hinostroza, M. (ed.); Luetken, S.; Holm Olsen, K. (Technical Univ. of Denmark. UNEP Risoe Centre, Roskilde (Denmark)); Aalders, E.; Pretlove, B.; Peters, N. (Det Norske Veritas, Hellerup (Denmark))

    2012-03-15

    The requirements for measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) of nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) are one of the crucial topics on the agenda of international negotiations to address climate change mitigation. According to agreements so far, the general guidelines for domestic MRV are to be developed by Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA)1. Further, the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) will be conducting international consultations and analysis (ICA) of biennial update reports (BUR) to improve transparency of mitigation actions, which should be measured, reported and verified. 2. What is clear from undergoing discussions both at SBSTA and at SBI is that MRV for NAMAs should not be a burden for controlling greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions connected to economic activities. Instead, the MRV process should facilitate mitigation actions; encourage the redirection of investments and address concerns regarding carbon content of emission intensive operations of private and public companies and enterprises worldwide. While MRV requirements are being shaped within the Convention, there are a number of initiatives supporting developing countries moving forward with NAMA development and demonstration activities. How these actions shall be measured, reported and verified, however, remain unanswered. MRV is not new. It is present in most existing policies and frameworks related to climate change mitigation. With an aim to contribute to international debate and capacity building on this crucial issue, the UNEP Risoe Centre in cooperation with UNDP, are pleased to present this publication that through the direct collaboration with Det Norske Veritas (DNV) builds on existing MRV practices in current carbon markets; provides insights on how MRV for NAMAs can be performed and identifies elements and drivers to be considered when designing adequate MRV systems for NAMAs in developing countries. This primer is the second contribution in the emerging area of NAMAs and MRV. It is complemented by a recent publication on Low Carbon Development Strategies and NAMAs. (Author)

  7. Cooperative efforts to mitigate proliferation risks at the Semipalatinsk test site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: For forty years the Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS) was used by the Soviet Union for atmospheric and underground nuclear tests. Atmospheric test were terminated as a result of the 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty; underground tests continued until 1990. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991, most of the soldiers guarding the site and most of the technical specialists returned to Russia. The Kazakhstan National Nuclear Center (NNC) was left with a huge environmental legacy and an unknown nuclear proliferation legacy. The Russian government was concerned that it would have to shoulder the environmental cleanup costs and, perhaps, face reparations for past activities. Consequently, its officials and technical specialists had no desire to return to the STS. NNC officials and technical specialists reached out to the international community to ask for assistance in assessing and mitigating the environmental risks at the STS. They had virtually no information about potential proliferation concerns because the nuclear testing records were Russian government property. Under the United States Cooperative Threat Reduction (Nunn-Lugar) program, a concerted effort was made by the U.S. Department of Defense to close the nuclear testing tunnels to destroy the nuclear testing infrastructure at the STS. The Nunn-Lugar program also facilitated the removal of nearly 600 kilograms of highly enrichment uranium from the Ulba Metallurgical Plant in Ust-Kamenogorsk to the United States to avoid potential nuclear proliferation problems. The Nunn-Lugar program was also responsible, together with the Russian government, to return Soviet nuclear weapons from Kazakhstan to Russia. As part of the Cooperative Threat Reduction lab-to-lab program, technical specialists from the U.S. national laboratories began to work with NNC specialists to enhance the protection and safeguarding of fissile materials resident at STS reactors and at the research reactor and associated facilities at the Institute for Nuclear Physics at Alatau and the fast reactor at Aktau. These programs resulted in cooperative activities between NNC and U.S. national laboratory technical specialists. One of these activities brought me to the STS in April 1998. That visit combined with my experience at the U.S. Nevada Nuclear Test Site convinced me that there were likely other fissile materials present at the STS that may present a significant proliferation risk and required immediate attention. NNC officials and specialists were unsuccessful in obtaining any information from the Russian government. Moreover, since the Republic of Kazakhstan had signed the nuclear nonproliferation treaty, it was not supposed to have undeclared fissile materials in its territory. By 1998, my colleagues at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and I had established close cooperation with the nuclear specialists from the Russian Federal Nuclear Centers (the All-Russia Institute for Experimental Physics, VNIIEF, and All-Russia Institute for Theoretical Physics, VNIITF). We were able to convince Academician Rady I. Ilkaev, director of VNIIEF, to return to Kazakhstan in 1999 and sign a three-party technical memorandum to work with the three governments to assess and liquidate the potential proliferation risks. Government officials from the U.S. Department of Energy, Russian Ministry of Atomic Energy, and RK NNC gave formal approval to proceed with trilateral technical cooperation to assess and remediate the proliferation risks associated with former Russian nuclear experiments and tests at STS. Over the next 13 years, we witnessed a remarkable spirit of cooperation among the three countries. The Russian nuclear specialists identified the potential sites of concerns, the type of materials and testing activity. They also played a major role in suggesting the appropriate mitigation actions. Without their cooperation, this effort could not have been successful. If left to the Americans and Kazakhstani specialists, it would have been like looking for a needle in a haystack. The American

  8. The Sensor Test for Orion RelNav Risk Mitigation (STORRM) Development Test Objective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christian, John A.; Hinkel, Heather; D'Souza, Christopher N.; Maguire, Sean; Patangan, Mogi

    2011-01-01

    The Sensor Test for Orion Relative-Navigation Risk Mitigation (STORRM) Development Test Objective (DTO) flew aboard the Space Shuttle Endeavour on STS-134 in May- June 2011, and was designed to characterize the performance of the flash LIDAR and docking camera being developed for the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle. The flash LIDAR, called the Vision Navigation Sensor (VNS), will be the primary navigation instrument used by the Orion vehicle during rendezvous, proximity operations, and docking. The DC will be used by the Orion crew for piloting cues during docking. This paper provides an overview of the STORRM test objectives and the concept of operations. It continues with a description of STORRM's major hardware components, which include the VNS, docking camera, and supporting avionics. Next, an overview of crew and analyst training activities will describe how the STORRM team prepared for flight. Then an overview of in-flight data collection and analysis is presented. Key findings and results from this project are summarized. Finally, the paper concludes with lessons learned from the STORRM DTO.

  9. Scientific Opinion on animal health risk mitigation treatments as regards imports of animal casings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EFSA Panel on Animal Health and Welfare

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available

    Salting with NaCl for 30 days is a well-established and accepted procedure in the casings industry and it has been the standard animal health risk mitigation treatment prescribed in EU legislation for many years. This opinion reviews (i improvements in the NaCl treatment that would lead to an increased level of safety to avoid transmission of animal pathogens, (ii alternative treatments that could have been developed giving equivalent or better results in the inactivation of relevant pathogens, and (iii provides an assessment of the phosphate-salt treatment recommended by OIE for foot and mouth disease virus, in particular if it could be considered safe as regards the elimination of other animal pathogens. The rate of inactivation of viruses was highly dependent on temperature for both NaCl and phosphate-NaCl treatment. Treatment with phosphate-NaCl mixture leads to faster inactivation than treatment with NaCl salt alone. Brucella species are readily inactivated by NaCl salting, but mycobacteriamay survive beyond 30 days in intestines in conditions similar to those used for salting of casings. It is recommended that casings should be treated at 20 °C for 30 days to achieve effective inactivation of animal pathogens. Several other treatments have been applied to casings with the aim of inactivating infectious agents, but none of them have been extensively investigated with viruses relevant for animal health.

  10. Stimulating household flood risk mitigation investments through insurance and subsidies: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    In the period 1998-2009, floods triggered roughly 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard in Europe. Climate change and socio/economic trends are expected to further aggrevate floods losses in many regions. Research shows that flood risk can be significantly reduced if households install protective measures, and that the implementation of such measures can be stimulated through flood insurance schemes and subsidies. However, the effectiveness of such incentives to stimulate implementation of loss-reducing measures greatly depends on the decision process of individuals and is hardly studied. In our study, we developed an Agent-Based Model that integrates flood damage models, insurance mechanisms, subsidies, and household behaviour models to assess the effectiveness of different economic tools on stimulating households to invest in loss-reducing measures. Since the effectiveness depends on the decision making process of individuals, the study compares different household decision models ranging from standard economic models, to economic models for decision making under risk, to more complex decision models integrating economic models and risk perceptions, opinion dynamics, and the influence of flood experience. The results show the effectiveness of incentives to stimulate investment in loss-reducing measures for different household behavior types, while assuming climate change scenarios. It shows how complex decision models can better reproduce observed real-world behaviour compared to traditional economic models. Furthermore, since flood events are included in the simulations, the results provide an analysis of the dynamics in insured and uninsured losses for households, the costs of reducing risk by implementing loss-reducing measures, the capacity of the insurance market, and the cost of government subsidies under different scenarios. The model has been applied to the City of Rotterdam in The Netherlands.

  11. Using inferred drivers of discarding behaviour to evaluate discard mitigation measures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Catchpole, T.L.; Feekings, Jordan P.; Madsen, Niels; Palialexis, A.; Vassilopoulou, V.; Valeiras, J.; Garcia, T.; Nikolic, N.; Rochet, M.J.

    2014-01-01

    Discards refer to the part of the catch not retained on board during commercial fishing operations, but returned to the sea. The proposed European Union Common Fisheries Policy reform, to be implemented in 2014, sets out a gradual elimination of discards by reducing unwanted catches and ensuring that all catches are landed. To develop successful discard mitigation measures, it is necessary to identify the reasons for discarding. Here, we have developed a simple model that can be applied to data ...

  12. Experimental measurements about harmonic current mitigation of electric vehicle battery chargers

    OpenAIRE

    Sainz Sapera, Luis; Balcells Sendra, Josep

    2011-01-01

    The expected high penetration of battery chargers for electric vehicles (EV) in electric networks is foreseen as a potential problem for power quality. Battery chargers are nonlinear devices that inject harmonic currents and pollute network voltages. Thus, their harmonic emissions must be analyzed and reduced by harmonic mitigation techniques to avoid future problems. This paper analyzes and reports some real case measurements of harmonics injected by single- and three-ph...

  13. Using inferred drivers of discarding behaviour to evaluate discard mitigation measures

    OpenAIRE

    Catchpole, T. L.; Feekings, J. P.; Madsen, N; Palialexis, A.; Vassilopoulou, V.; Valeiras, J.; Garcia, T; Nikolic, Natacha; Rochet, Marie-joelle

    2014-01-01

    Discards refer to the part of the catch not retained on board during commercial fishing operations, but returned to the sea. The proposed European Union Common Fisheries Policy reform, to be implemented in 2014, sets out a gradual elimination of discards by reducing unwanted catches and ensuring that all catches are landed. To develop successful discard mitigation measures, it is necessary to identify the reasons for discarding. Here, we have developed a simple model that can be appl...

  14. Water Scarcity in Communities, Coping Strategies and Mitigation Measures: The Case of Bulawayo

    OpenAIRE

    Treda Mukuhlani; Mandlenkosi Taurai Nyamupingidza

    2013-01-01

    This paper looks at the impact of water scarcity in communities. This paper also evaluates various mitigation measures being employed by residents themselves, local authorities, non-governmental organization (NGOs) and the government. Bulawayo, Zimbabwe’s second largest city was chosen as a case study because the geographical and climatic conditions are such that it receives low and unreliable rainfall. The city has been facing water scarcity for close to a decade now. The water shortages ha...

  15. Measuring Risk Aversion and the Wealth Effect

    OpenAIRE

    Heinemann, Frank

    2005-01-01

    Measuring risk aversion is sensitive to assumptions about the wealth in subjects' utility functions. Data from the same subjects in low- and high-stake lottery decisions allow estimating the wealth in a pre-specified one-parameter utility function simultaneously with risk aversion. This paper first shows how wealth estimates can be identified assuming constant relative risk aversion (CRRA). Using the data from a recent experiment by Holt and Laury (2002), it is shown that most subjects' behav...

  16. Engineering aspects of earthquake risk mitigation: Lessons from management of recent earthquakes, and consequential mudflows and landslides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Proceedings contain 30 selected presentations given at the Second and Third UNDRO/USSR Training Seminars: Engineering Aspects of Earthquake Risk Assessment and Mitigation of Losses, held in Dushanbe, October 1988; and Lessons from Management of Recent Earthquakes, and Consequential Mudflows and Landslides, held in Moscow, October 1989. The annexes to the document provide information on the participants, the work programme and the resolution adopted at each of the seminars. Refs, figs and tabs

  17. Public health activities for mitigation of radiation exposures and risk communication challenges after the Fukushima nuclear accident

    OpenAIRE

    Shimura, Tsutomu; Yamaguchi, Ichiro; Terada, Hiroshi; Robert Svendsen, Erik; Kunugita, Naoki

    2015-01-01

    Herein we summarize the public health actions taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radiation after the Fukushima accident that occurred on 11 March 2011 in order to record valuable lessons learned for disaster preparedness. Evacuations from the radiation-affected areas and control of the distribution of various food products contributed to the reduction of external and internal radiation exposure resulting from the Fukushima incident. However, risk communication is also an important is...

  18. Risk Aversion and Coherent Risk Measures a Spectral Representation Theorem

    CERN Document Server

    Acerbi, C

    2001-01-01

    We study a space of coherent risk measures M_phi obtained as certain expansions of coherent elementary basis measures. In this space, the concept of ``Risk Aversion Function'' phi naturally arises as the spectral representation of each risk measure in a space of functions of confidence level probabilities. We give necessary and sufficient conditions on phi for M_phi to be a coherent measure. We find in this way a simple interpretation of the concept of coherence and a way to map any rational investor's subjective risk aversion onto a coherent measure and vice--versa. We also provide for these measures their discrete versions M_phi^N acting on finite sets of N independent realizations of a r.v. which are not only shown to be coherent measures for any fixed N, but also consistent estimators of M_phi for large N. Finally, we find in our results some interesting and not yet fully investigated relationships with certain results known in insurance mathematical literature.

  19. Tsunami mitigation and preparedness activities in California: Chapter L in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Rick; Miller, Kevin

    2013-01-01

    Scenario planning and final results associated with the U.S. Geological Survey Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami project are providing great benefits to the ongoing tsunami risk-reduction efforts of the California Tsunami Preparedness and Hazard Mitigation Program. This program, led by the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services and the California Geological Survey, works with coastal communities to improve tsunami preparedness and mitigation at the local level through various efforts, such as improving tsunami hazard analysis, establishing consistent evacuation communications and planning, and leveraging national risk-reduction efforts associated with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. The recent 2010 Chilean and 2011 Tohoku tsunamis did not cause notable inundation of dry land in California, but dozens of harbors sustained damages totaling nearly $100 million (Wilson and others, 2012a). Estimates associated with the SAFRR distant tsunami scenario suggest socioeconomic and environmental losses could be even larger. Information gathered from these events and the SAFRR scenario is guiding the development and implementation of new strategies for emergency response, maritime planning, and land-use planning, including a reassessment of the tsunami threat along the California coast;

  20. Measurement Decision Risk - The Importance of Definitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mimbs, Scott M.

    2008-01-01

    One of the more misunderstood areas of metrology is the Test Uncertainty Ratio (TUR) and the Test Accuracy Ratio (TAR). There have been many definitions over the years, but why are these definitions important to a discussion on measurement decision risk? The importance lies in the clarity of communication. Problems can immediately arise in the application (or misapplication) of the definition of these terms. In other words, while it is important to understand the definitions, it is more important to understand concepts behind the definitions and to be precise in how they are applied. The objective of any measurement is a decision. Measurement Decision Risk is a way to look at the quality of a measurement, and although it is not a new concept, it has generated a lot of attention since its addition as a requirement in the new U.S. National Standard, ANSIINCSL Z540.3-2006. In addition to Measurement Decision Risk as the prime method of managing measurement risk, Z540.3 has added, as a fall-back, an explicit definition for TUR. The impact these new requirements may have on calibration service providers has become the topic of much discussion and in some cases concern. This paper will look at the concepts behind the definitions and how they relate to Measurement Decision Risk. Using common examples, this paper will also provide a comparison of various elements of risk related to measurement science using the concepts of TAR, TUR, accuracy ratios, and Consumer Risk (False Accept Risk). The goal of this paper is to provide a better understanding of their relevance to the measurement decision process.

  1. Keeping focus on earthquakes at school for seismic risk mitigation of the next generations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saraò, Angela; Barnaba, Carla; Peruzza, Laura

    2013-04-01

    The knowledge of the seismic history of its own territory, the understanding of physical phenomena in response to an earthquake, the changes in the cultural heritage following a strong earthquake, the learning of actions to be taken during and after an earthquake, are piece of information that contribute to keep focus on the seismic hazard and to implement strategies for seismic risk mitigation. The training of new generations, today more than ever subject to rapid forgetting of past events, becomes therefore a key element to increase the perception that earthquakes happened and can happen at anytime and that mitigation actions are the only means to ensure the safety and to reduce damages and human losses. Since several years our institute (OGS) is involved in activities to raise awareness of education on earthquake. We aim to implement education programs with the goal of addressing a critical approach to seismic hazard reduction, differentiating the types of activities according to the age of the students. However, being such kind of activity unfunded, we can act at now only on a very limited number of schools per year. To be effective, the inclusion of the seismic risk issues in school curricula requires specific time and appropriate approaches when planning activities. For this reason, we involve also the teachers as proponents of activities and we encourage them to keep alive memories and discussion on earthquake in the classes. During the past years we acted mainly in the schools of the Friuli Venezia Giulia area (NE Italy), that is an earthquake prone area struck in 1976 by a destructive seismic event (Ms=6.5). We organized short training courses for teachers, we lectured classes, and we led laboratory activities with students. Indeed, being well known that students enjoy classes more when visual and active learning are joined, we propose a program that is composed by seminars, demonstrations and hands-on activities in the classrooms; for high school students we propose summer stages at the OGS Seismological Department. Some examples of education activities we performed during the last two years are here presented. Starting with kids at kindergartens, where we propose play and story-telling activities with the final goal to prepare them on what to do in case an earthquake occurs, we show our experience with the primary and intermediate schools where, through hands-on activities, we reproduce and explain the earthquake phenomenon and its effects. Then we illustrate the work of high school students who, under the guidance of an expert seismologist, designed and performed a microzonation study in Gemona del Friuli, a small town that was severely damaged by the 1976 earthquake. Satisfaction questionnaires and feedback by students and teachers help us to assess the effectiveness of our efforts as well as to improve our next actions.

  2. Marginal abatement cost curves and the optimal timing of mitigation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decision makers facing abatement targets need to decide which abatement measures to implement, and in which order. Measure-explicit marginal abatement cost curves depict the cost and abating potential of available mitigation options. Using a simple intertemporal optimization model, we demonstrate why this information is not sufficient to design emission reduction strategies. Because the measures required to achieve ambitious emission reductions cannot be implemented overnight, the optimal strategy to reach a short-term target depends on longer-term targets. For instance, the best strategy to achieve European's ?20% by 2020 target may be to implement some expensive, high-potential, and long-to-implement options required to meet the ?75% by 2050 target. Using just the cheapest abatement options to reach the 2020 target can create a carbon-intensive lock-in and make the 2050 target too expensive to reach. Designing mitigation policies requires information on the speed at which various measures to curb greenhouse gas emissions can be implemented, in addition to the information on the costs and potential of such measures provided by marginal abatement cost curves. - Highlights: • Classification of existing Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACC). • MACCs do not provide separated data on the speed at which measures can be implemented. • Optimal measures to reach a short-term target depend on longer-term targets. • Unique carbon price or aggregated emission-reduction target may be insufficient. • Room for short-term sectoral policies if agents are myopic or governments cannot commit

  3. Evaluation of innovative means of hydrogen risk mitigation in thermonuclear fusion reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    One of the main accidents in ITER-type thermonuclear fusion reactors is the loss of coolant leading to hydrogen production. Within the framework of the studies on the ITER fusion reactor, a mitigation strategy for this risk must be devised by focusing on a system, which can be placed near the hydrogen source. The uncertainty as to the air content during such a scenario forbids the use of classic methods based on the hydrogen/oxygen reaction such as passive catalytic recombiners. Former studies have proposed a process based on the reduction of metallic oxides and more particularly that of the manganese dioxide enhanced by silver oxide mixture. The reaction studied is H2 + MnO2 ? MnO + H2O (reaction enhanced by Ag2O). The purpose is to study the kinetic. The method used consists in comparing the experimental results obtained on the pilot facility CIGNE with those provided by a model. The experimental results were obtained from tests made on a pilot facility with a solid/gas reaction in a fixed bed. These underlined the importance of favoring the solid/gas contact surface. The modeling used in the MITRHY simulation program, coupled to an optimizer helped determine the kinetic parameters and the data on the material and temperature transfers. The kinetic is of first order rate for hydrogen with an activation energy of 29428 J/mol and a kinetic coefficient of 142 m.s-1. Integrated in the MITRHY program, the kinetic parameters were used to simulate the hydrogen elimination in the accident conditions on the ITER experimental reactor. This study achieved a pre-design basis of the device (bed of about 30 cm with grains of a diameter of less than 5 mm) to be implemented. It also underlined the need to favor the specific surface to improved process efficiency. (author)

  4. Sistema Inteligente de Mitigación de Riesgos Intelligent system for risk mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadira Ruiz Constanten

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available La acumulación de experiencias en la concepción de proyectos, el surgimiento de organizaciones y estándares dedicados a la planificación y administración de los mismos, han permitido que su desarrollo se haya convertido en una actividad planificada y controlada. La gestión de riesgos es un proceso complejo estrechamente vinculado al dominio que tenga el equipo de desarrollo sobre el tema. De su correcta gestión dependerán gran parte de los resultados, teniendo en cuenta las ventajas que tanto tecnológicas como económicas reportará para el equipo de desarrollo la mitigación de los mismos. Los riesgos han de analizarse para propiciar el aprovechamiento de las diversas oportunidades que puedan ofrecer y de la misma forma, evitar que sean muy severos e irreparables, los daños que puedan provocar. Los sistemas basados en casos (SBC ayudan y agilizan la toma de decisiones simulando las cadenas de razonamiento que realiza un experto para resolver un problema de su dominio. Su vinculación con distintos elementos del proceso de desarrollo de software posibilita la obtención de resultados más acertados a partir del conocimiento que se les introduce basado en la experiencia acumulada. Actualmente el centro de Informatización para la Seguridad Ciudadana ISEC, ha enfrentado dificultades para una rápida y acertada gestión de riesgos. La utilización de las facilidades que brindan los SBC para la gestión de riesgos resultaría ventajoso al brindar las herramientas necesarias para que los líderes de proyecto, basados en experiencias anteriores, realicen una planificación más acertada, teniendo en cuenta los diversos contratiempos que pudieran surgir.the accumulation of experiences in project design, and the emergence of standards organizations and engaged in planning and administration of the same, have allowed their development has become an activity planned and controlled. Risk management during the life cycle of software development is a complex process closely linked to the domain with the development team on the subject. In its correct management will depend largely on the results, taking into account both technological advantages for the team will bring economic development, mitigating them. To have a tool that automates this, streamline the decision-making process, is essential. In Artificial Intelligence there are different knowledge-based techniques that allow solution of problems in different ways. One of the most common techniques is knowledge Based Systems, which are computer systems that use domain knowledge to solve problems pertaining to this. This solution is essentially the same as that obtained by a person experienced in the problem domain. It is of great importance to use the advantages provided by this type of systems for developing applications to streamline the process of managing risks. To this will be discussed in this article, showing that facilitates the use of minimal resources and higher quality.

  5. Impact of Stress and Mitigating Information on Evaluations, Attributions, Affect, Disciplinary Choices, and Expectations of Compliance in Mothers at High and Low Risk for Child Physical Abuse

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Paul, Joaquin; Asla, Nagore; Perez-Albeniz, Alicia; De Cadiz, Barbara Torres-Gomez

    2006-01-01

    The objective is to know if high-risk mothers for child physical abuse differ in their evaluations, attributions, negative affect, disciplinary choices for children's behavior, and expectations of compliance. The effect of a stressor and the introduction of mitigating information are analyzed. Forty-seven high-risk and 48 matched low-risk mothers…

  6. The Use of the Integrated Medical Model for Forecasting and Mitigating Medical Risks for a Near-Earth Asteroid Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerstman, Eric; Saile, Lynn; Freire de Carvalho, Mary; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Lopez, Vilma

    2011-01-01

    Introduction The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission managers and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight. Methods Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of medical events, crew health metrics, medical resource utilization, and probability estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM can also optimize medical kits within the constraints of mass and volume for specified missions. The IMM was used to forecast medical evacuation and loss of crew life probabilities, as well as crew health metrics for a near-earth asteroid (NEA) mission. An optimized medical kit for this mission was proposed based on the IMM simulation. Discussion The IMM can provide information to the space program regarding medical risks, including crew medical impairment, medical evacuation and loss of crew life. This information is valuable to mission managers and the space medicine community in assessing risk and developing mitigation strategies. Exploration missions such as NEA missions will have significant mass and volume constraints applied to the medical system. Appropriate allocation of medical resources will be critical to mission success. The IMM capability of optimizing medical systems based on specific crew and mission profiles will be advantageous to medical system designers. Conclusion The IMM is a decision support tool that can provide estimates of the impact of medical events on human space flight missions, such as crew impairment, evacuation, and loss of crew life. It can be used to support the development of mitigation strategies and to propose optimized medical systems for specified space flight missions. Learning Objectives The audience will learn how an evidence-based decision support tool can be used to help assess risk, develop mitigation strategies, and optimize medical systems for exploration space flight missions.

  7. Approving the ISDWIR method of risk measurement in making risk management decision

    OpenAIRE

    Strelnik, Mikhail

    2014-01-01

    This paper is devoted to risk management and risk measurement methods. The author considers methods of risk measurement and proposes the Inte- gral Sum of Differential Weighted Indexes of Risks (or ISDWIR) method of risk measurement. The method is based on dynamic enterprise risk matri- ces. The matrix describes the changes of corporate risk values over the time. The method assists to choose risk management decision having good effects on corporate risk values. The ISDWIR method is also compa...

  8. Climate Change And Mitigation Measures For The Hydrometerological Disaster In Himachal Pradesh India- In Light Of Dams.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinay K. Pandey

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Continuing climate change is predicted to lead to major changes in the climate of the Himalayan region. Casualties and damage due to hazards in mountain regions will increase irrespective of global warming especially where populations are growing and infrastructure is developed at exposed locations. But climate change will definitely increase risk due to the fact that expected increases of heavy rainfall heat waves and glacier melt will amplify hazards in Himalayan region. The rapid release of melt water and rainfall may combine to trigger debris flows and flash flood in higher ranges including the formation of potentially dangerous lakes. These lakes may breach suddenly resulting in discharge of huge volume of water and debris. Himachal Pradesh had experienced a large number of incidences of Hydro-meteorological disaster HMD since its inception in 1971. Flash flood of March 1975 Dec 1988 Satluj flash flood of August 2000 July 2001 June 2005 Flash flood of July 2005 and Cloud burst in June 2013 are the major natural calamities in Himachal Pradesh. Due to continuous HMD brought heavy toll to the state as the loss was estimated in several thousand millions of rupees and also killed several hundreds of people besides large number of cattle heads. Through this paper we carried out a comprehensive study of past HMD and mitigation measures solution and concluded that these disaster are by their nature difficult to predict and control but it is possible to reduce the risk to lives and property through develop mitigation strategy and plan to construct damsbarrages with awareness and knowledge among local communities about the impacts of global warming natural disaster and the threat to the ecosystem communities and infrastructure are generally inadequate.

  9. The Measuring Method of Risk with Energy

    OpenAIRE

    Xin Lin; Xinshu Tu

    2009-01-01

    Since Harry. M. Markowitz published ‘portfolio Selection’ (1952), financial economists have proposed many methods to measure risk such as variant, downside-variant, average
    absolute deviation, maximum deviation, VaR and so on. However, these methods share a common limitation, which only consider moment of the price, not consider the influence of exchange quantity. In common situation, these methods and their financial theory models can help investors prevent and scatter the risks e...

  10. Risk measures with non-Gaussian fluctuations

    CERN Document Server

    Bormetti, G; Montagna, G; Nicrosini, O

    2006-01-01

    Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modeling the power-law tails of the returns distribution in terms of a Student-$t$ (or Tsallis) distribution. Non-Gaussian closed-form solutions for Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall are obtained and standard formulae known in the literature under the normality assumption are recovered as a special case. The implications of the approach for risk management are demonstrated through an empirical analysis of financial time series from the Italian stock market. Detailed comparison with the results of the widely used procedures of quantitative finance, such as parametric normal approach, RiskMetrics methodology and historical simulation, as well as with previous findings in the literature, are shown and commented. Particular attention is paid to quantify the size of the errors affecting the risk measures obtaine...

  11. Quantitative Measures of Mineral Supply Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, K. R.

    2009-12-01

    Almost all metals and many non-metallic minerals are traded internationally. An advantage of global mineral markets is that minerals can be obtained from the globally lowest-cost source. For example, one rare-earth element (REE) mine in China, Bayan Obo, is able to supply most of world demand for rare earth elements at a cost significantly less than its main competitors. Concentration of global supplies at a single mine raises significant political risks, illustrated by China’s recent decision to prohibit the export of some REEs and severely limit the export of others. The expected loss of REE supplies will have a significant impact on the cost and production of important national defense technologies and on alternative energy programs. Hybrid vehicles and wind-turbine generators, for example, require REEs for magnets and batteries. Compact fluorescent light bulbs use REE-based phosphors. These recent events raise the general issue of how to measure the degree of supply risk for internationally sourced minerals. Two factors, concentration of supply and political risk, must first be addressed. Concentration of supply can be measured with standard economic tools for measuring industry concentration, using countries rather than firms as the unit of analysis. There are many measures of political risk available. That of the OECD is a measure of a country’s commitment to rule-of-law and enforcement of contracts, as well as political stability. Combining these measures provides a comparative view of mineral supply risk across commodities and identifies several minerals other than REEs that could suddenly become less available. Combined with an assessment of the impact of a reduction in supply, decision makers can use these measures to prioritize risk reduction efforts.

  12. Measurement and mitigation of nitrous oxide emissions from a high nitrogen input vegetable system

    OpenAIRE

    Lam, Shu Kee; Suter, Helen; Davies, Rohan; Bai, Mei; Sun, Jianlei; Chen, Deli

    2015-01-01

    The emission and mitigation of nitrous oxide (N2O) from high nitrogen (N) vegetable systems is not well understood. Nitrification inhibitors are widely used to decrease N2O emissions in many cropping systems. However, most N2O flux measurements and inhibitor impacts have been made with small chambers and have not been investigated at a paddock-scale using micrometeorological techniques. We quantified N2O fluxes over a four ha celery paddock using open-path Fourier Transform Infrared spectrosc...

  13. Surge Pressure Mitigation in the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission Core Propulsion System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scroggins, Ashley R.; Fiebig, Mark D.

    2014-01-01

    The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is an international partnership between NASA and JAXA whose Core spacecraft performs cutting-edge measurements of rainfall and snowfall worldwide and unifies data gathered by a network of precipitation measurement satellites. The Core spacecraft's propulsion system is a blowdown monopropellant system with an initial hydrazine load of 545 kg in a single composite overwrapped propellant tank. At launch, the propulsion system contained propellant in the tank and manifold tubes upstream of the latch valves, with low-pressure helium gas in the manifold tubes downstream of the latch valves. The system had a relatively high beginning-of- life pressure and long downstream manifold lines; these factors created conditions that were conducive to high surge pressures. This paper discusses the GPM project's approach to surge mitigation in the propulsion system design. The paper describes the surge testing program and results, with discussions of specific difficulties encountered. Based on the results of surge testing and pressure drop analyses, a unique configuration of cavitating venturis was chosen to mitigate surge while minimizing pressure losses during thruster maneuvers. This paper concludes with a discussion of overall lessons learned with surge pressure testing for NASA Goddard spacecraft programs.

  14. Intelligent system for risk mitigation Sistema Inteligente de Mitigación de Riesgos.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadira Ruiz Constanten

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available the accumulation of experiences in project design, and the emergence of standards organizations and engaged in planning and administration of the same, have allowed their development has become an activity planned and controlled. Risk management during the life cycle of software development is a complex process closely linked to the domain with the development team on the subject. In its correct management will depend largely on the results, taking into account both technological advantages for the team will bring economic development, mitigating them. To have a tool that automates this, streamline the decision-making process, is essential. In Artificial Intelligence there are different knowledge-based techniques that allow solution of problems in different ways. One of the most common techniques is knowledge Based Systems, which are computer systems that use domain knowledge to solve problems pertaining to this. This solution is essentially the same as that obtained by a person experienced in the problem domain. It is of great importance to use the advantages provided by this type of systems for developing applications to streamline the process of managing risks. To this will be discussed in this article, showing that facilitates the use of minimal resources and higher quality.

    La acumulación de experiencias en la concepción de proyectos, el surgimiento de organizaciones y estándares dedicados a la planificación y administración de los mismos, han permitido que su desarrollo se haya convertido en una actividad planificada y controlada. La gestión de riesgos es un proceso complejo estrechamente vinculado al dominio que tenga el equipo de desarrollo sobre el tema. De su correcta gestión dependerán gran parte de los resultados, teniendo en cuenta las ventajas que tanto tecnológicas como económicas reportará para el equipo de desarrollo la mitigación de los mismos. Los riesgos han de analizarse para propiciar el aprovechamiento de las diversas oportunidades que puedan ofrecer y de la misma forma, evitar que sean muy severos e irreparables, los daños que puedan provocar. Los sistemas basados en casos (SBC ayudan y agilizan la toma de decisiones simulando las cadenas de razonamiento que realiza un experto para resolver un problema de su dominio. Su vinculación con distintos elementos del proceso de desarrollo de software posibilita la obtención de resultados más acertados a partir del conocimiento que se les introduce basado en la experiencia acumulada. Actualmente el centro de Informatización para la Seguridad Ciudadana ISEC, ha enfrentado dificultades para una rápida y acertada gestión de riesgos. La utilización de las facilidades que brindan los SBC para la gestión de riesgos resultaría ventajoso al brindar las herramientas necesarias para que los líderes de proyecto, basados en experiencias anteriores, realicen una planificación más acertada, teniendo en cuenta los diversos contratiempos que pudieran surgir.

  15. Towards real-time risk mitigation for NPP in Switzerland: the potential role of EEW and OEF.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cauzzi, Carlo; Wiemer, Stefan; Behr, Yannik; Clinton, John; Renault, Philippe; Le Guenan, Thomas; Douglas, John; Woessner, Jochen; Biro, Yesim; Caprio, Marta; Cua, Georgia

    2014-05-01

    Spurred by the research activities being carried out within the EC-funded project REAKT (Strategies and Tools for Real Time Earthquake Risk Reduction, FP7, contract no. 282862, 2011-2014, www.reaktproject.eu), we present herein the key elements to understanding the potential benefits of routinely using Earthquake Early Warning and Operational Earthquake Forecasting methods to mitigate the seismic risk at NPP in Switzerland. The advantages of using the aforementioned real-time risk reduction tools are critically discussed based on the limitations of the current scientific knowledge and technology, as well as on the costs associated to both system maintenance and machine- or human-triggered actions following an alert. Basic inputs to this discussion are, amongst others: a) the performances of the Swiss seismic network (http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/monitor, where SeisComP3 is used as earthquake monitoring software) and the selected EEW algorithm (the Virtual Seismologist, VS, http://www.seiscomp3.org/doc/seattle/2013.200/apps/vs.html), in terms of correct detections, false alerts, and missed events; b) the reliability of time-dependent hazard scenarios for the region of interest; c) a careful assessment of the frequency of occurrence of critical warnings based on the local and regional seismicity; d) the identification of the mitigation actions and their benefits and costs for the stakeholders.

  16. Seafarer fatigue : a review of risk factors, consequences for seafarers’ health and safety and options for mitigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jepsen, JØrgen Riis; Zhao, Zhiwei

    2015-01-01

    Background: The consequences of fatigue for the health and safety of seafarers has caused concern in the industry and among academics, and indicates the importance of further research into risk factors and preventive interventions at sea. This review gives an overview of the key issues relating to seafarer fatigue. Materials and methods: A literature study was conducted aiming to collect publications that address risk factors for fatigue, short-term and long-term consequences for health and safety, and options for fatigue mitigation at sea. Due to the limited number of publications that deals with seafarers, experiences from other populations sharing the same exposures (e.g. shift work) were also included when appropriate. Results: Work at sea involves multiple risk factors for fatigue, which in addition to acute effects (e.g., impaired cognition, accidents) contributes through autonomic, immunologic and metabolic pathways to the development of chronic diseases that are particularly prevalent in seafarers. Conclusions: Taking into account the frequency of seafarer fatigue and the severity of its consequences, one should look into the efficacy of the current legislative framework and the industry’s compliance, the manning of the international merchant fleet, and optimised working, living and sleeping conditions at sea. Considering circumstances at sea, e.g. working in shifts and crossing time zones, that cannot be altered, further assessment of the potentials of preventive interventions including fatigue prediction tools and individual fatigue mitigation management systems is recommended.

  17. Field studies on exposure, effects, and risk mitigation of aquatic nonpoint-source insecticide pollution: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulz, Ralf

    2004-01-01

    Recently, much attention has been focused on insecticides as a group of chemicals combining high toxicity to invertebrates and fishes with low application rates, which complicates detection in the field. Assessment of these chemicals is greatly facilitated by the description and understanding of exposure, resulting biological effects, and risk mitigation strategies in natural surface waters under field conditions due to normal farming practice. More than 60 reports of insecticide-compound detection in surface waters due to agricultural nonpoint-source pollution have been published in the open literature during the past 20 years, about one-third of them having been undertaken in the past 3.5 years. Recent reports tend to concentrate on specific routes of pesticide entry, such as runoff, but there are very few studies on spray drift-borne contamination. Reported aqueous-phase insecticide concentrations are negatively correlated with the catchment size and all concentrations of > 10 microg/L (19 out of 133) were found in smaller-scale catchments (contamination often lack appropriate exposure characterization. About 15 of the 42 effect studies reviewed here revealed a clear relationship between quantified, non-experimental exposure and observed effects in situ, on abundance, drift, community structure, or dynamics. Azinphos-methyl, chlorpyrifos, and endosulfan were frequently detected at levels above those reported to reveal effects in the field; however, knowledge about effects of insecticides in the field is still sparse. Following a short overview of various risk mitigation or best management practices, constructed wetlands and vegetated ditches are described as a risk mitigation strategy that have only recently been established for agricultural insecticides. Although only 11 studies are available, the results in terms of pesticide retention and toxicity reduction are very promising. Based on the reviewed literature, recommendations are made for future research activities. PMID:15074794

  18. Disaster Risk Management and Measurement Indicators for Cultural Heritage in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Y. N.; Cheng, C. F.; Cheng, H. M.

    2015-08-01

    Under the influence of global climate change, the risk preparedness has become a universal issue in different research fields. In the conservation of cultural heritage, disaster risk management is becoming one of the major research topics. Besides researches on the theory and mechanism of disaster risk management, the tools for the performance of site managers to protect cultural heritage is another important issue that needs development. UNESCO and ICOMOS have released some important documents on disaster risk management including its concept, identification, evaluation, mitigation, monitoring and resilience, etc. However, there is a big gap between concept and implementation in Taiwan. Presently there are 2000 monuments in Taiwan that hardly meet the modern code. First, based on international documents released, this research presents 13 disaster indicators on monuments and their environments. Next, 345 monuments in northern Taiwan are taken as examples to evaluate their risk situations with indicators designed in 2011. Some positive recommendations were given at the same time. As a result, a comparative evaluation was completed in 2012 and some key issues are found, such as too many electrical facilities, lack of efficient firefighting equipment, and a shortage of management mechanism, just to name a few. Through the improvement of the management, some major risk can be mitigated. In 2013~14, this research took 23 national monuments from the 345 monuments to evaluate their risk situations and compare the differences between national and local monuments. Results show that almost all management mechanisms in the national monuments have been established and are running well. However, problems like inappropriate electrical facilities and insufficient monitoring equipment remain. In addition, the performance of private monuments is not as good as public ones. Based on the collected information and evaluation, this research develops safety measures of heritage conservation in two aspects. One is for researchers to measure the risk of the heritage; the other is for site managers to manage the risk of their monument with ease. In conclusion, intendants of monuments in Taiwan have to develop more disaster risk management ideas to mitigate and prevent risks. In the meantime, the management and monitoring mechanisms available are helpful tools for risk mitigation. The awareness and training of the site managers are important issues for the implementation of risk prevention.

  19. Experimental Measurements of e-Cloud Mitigation Using Clearing Electrodes in the DA?NE Collider

    CERN Document Server

    Alesini, D; Gallo, A; Guiducci, S; Milardi, C; Zobov, M; De Santis, S; Demma, Theo; Raimondi, P

    2012-01-01

    Recently the DA?NE electron-positron collider has started delivering luminosity to the KLOE-2 experiment. For this run special metallic electrodes were installed in all the dipole and wiggler magnets of the positron ring to cope with the effects induced by the e-cloud formation. Experimental measurements have shown an impressive effectiveness of these devices in mitigating the e-cloud impact on the positron beam dynamics. The electrodes allow reducing the vertical beam size and the growth rate of transverse instabilities as well as the tune shifts induced by the electron cloud itself. Moreover frequency shift measurements of the vacuum chamber resonances, switching on and off the electrodes, indicate an evident reduction of the electron cloud density. This paper reports and analyses all the experimental observations and measurements done to suppress the e-cloud induced effects by using metallic electrodes.

  20. Recommendations to mitigate against human health risks incurred due to energetic particle irradiation beyond low earth orbit/BLEO

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna-Lawlor, Susan; Bhardwaj, Anil; Ferrari, Franco; Kuznetsov, Nikolay; Lal, Ajay K.; Li, Yinghui; Nagamatsu, Aiko; Nymmik, Rikho; Panasyuk, Michael; Petrov, Vladislav; Reitz, Günther; Pinsky, Lawrence; Shukor, Muszaphar (Sheikh); Singhvi, Ashok K.; Straube, Ulrich; Tomi, Leena; Lawrence, Townsend

    2015-04-01

    An account is provided of the main sources of energetic particle radiation in interplanetary space (Galactic Cosmic Radiation and Solar Energetic Particles) and career dose limits presently utilized by NASA to mitigate against the cancer and non-cancer effects potentially incurred by astronauts due to irradiation by these components are presented. Certain gaps in knowledge that presently militate against mounting viable human exploration in deep space due to the inherent health risks are identified and recommendations made as to how these gaps might be closed within a framework of global international cooperation.

  1. US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wing, Ian Sue; Monier, Erwan; Stern, Ari; Mundra, Anupriya

    2015-11-01

    We estimate the costs of climate change to US agriculture, and associated potential benefits of abating greenhouse gas emissions. Five major crops’ yield responses to climatic variation are modeled empirically, and the results combined with climate projections for a no-policy, high-warming future, as well as moderate and stringent mitigation scenarios. Unabated warming reduces yields of wheat and soybeans by 2050, and cotton by 2100, but moderate warming increases yields of all crops except wheat. Yield changes are monetized using the results of economic simulations within an integrated climate-economy modeling framework. Uncontrolled warming’s economic effects on major crops are slightly positive—annual benefits <4 B. These are amplified by emission reductions, but subject to diminishing returns—by 2100 reaching 17 B under moderate mitigation, but only 7 B with stringent mitigation. Costs and benefits are sensitive to irreducible uncertainty about the fertilization effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, without which unabated warming incurs net costs of up to 18 B, generating benefits to moderate (stringent) mitigation as large as 26 B (20 B).

  2. Anthropometric measures and bladder cancer risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roswall, Nina; Freisling, Heinz; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H B As; Ros, Martine; Christensen, Jane; Overvad, Kim; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Severi, Gianluca; Fagherazzi, Guy; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Kaaks, Rudolf; Steffen, Annika; Boeing, Heiner; Argüelles, Marcial; Agudo, Antonio; Sánchez, María-José; Chirlaque, Maria-Dolores; Gurrea, Aurelio Barricarte; Amiano, Pilar; Wareham, Nick; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Bradbury, Kathryn Erica; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Papatesta, Helen-Maria; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios; Palli, Domenico; Pala, Valeria; Tumino, Rosario; Sacerdote, Carlotta; Mattiello, Amalia; Peeters, Petra H; Ehrnström, Roy; Brennan, Paul; Ferrari, Pietro; Ljungberg, Börje; Norat, Teresa; Gunter, Marc; Riboli, Elio; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Halkjaer, Jytte

    2014-01-01

    Anthropometric measures have been related to risk of several cancers. For bladder cancer, however, evidence is sparse. Comparability of existing studies is hampered by use of different obesity-measures, inadequate control for smoking, and few female cases. This study examined associations between height, weight, waist and hip circumference, waist-hip-ratio, waist-height-ratio, BMI, recalled weight at age 20 and bladder cancer, and investigated effect modification by age, tumor aggressiveness and...

  3. Measuring market risk using extreme value theory

    OpenAIRE

    Mapa, Dennis S; Suaiso, Oliver Q.

    2009-01-01

    The adoption of Basel II standards by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas initiates financial institutions to develop value-at-risk (VaR) models to measure market risk. In this paper, two VaR models are considered using the peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach of the extreme value theory: (1) static EVT model which is the straightforward application of POT to the bond benchmark rates; and (2) dynamic EVT model which applies POT to the residuals of the fitted AR-GARCH model. The results are compare...

  4. Mitigating Systematic Errors in Angular Correlation Function Measurements from Wide Field Surveys

    CERN Document Server

    Morrison, Christopher Brian

    2015-01-01

    We present an investigation into the effects of survey systematics such as varying depth, point spread function (PSF) size, and extinction on the galaxy selection and correlation in photometric, multi-epoch, wide area surveys. We take the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Lensing Survey (CFHTLenS) as an example. Variations in galaxy selection due to systematics are found to cause density fluctuations of up to 10% for some small fraction of the area for most galaxy redshift slices and as much as 50% for some extreme cases of faint high-redshift samples. This results in correlations of galaxies against survey systematics of order $\\sim$1% when averaged over the survey area. We present an empirical method for mitigating these systematic correlations from measurements of angular correlation functions using weighted random points. These weighted random catalogs are estimated from the observed galaxy over densities by mapping these to survey parameters. We are able to model and mitigate the effect of systematic correl...

  5. Raptor mortality in wind farms of southern Spain: mitigation measures on a major migration bottleneck area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gallego, Antonio-Roman Munoz; Lucas, Manuela De; Casado, Eva; Ferrer, Miguel

    2011-07-01

    Full text: To assess and monitor the impact of wind farms on fauna is crucial if we want to achieve ecologically sustainable development of this renewable energy resource. Today there are clear evidences that the probability of raptor collision depends critically on species behaviour and weather conditions, and the topographic factors related to each windmill. In our study area EIA were not able to predict this differential risk and in these circumstances mitigating the causes of bird mortality becomes a task of major importance, especially to those wind farms located in the Strait of Gibraltar, a water crossing of 14 km at its shortest distance acting as a major migration bottleneck for Paleo-African soaring migrants. We collected all available information on raptor collision from 1992, when the first wind farm was installed, and from 2005 until present a total of 262 turbines, grouped into 20 wind farms, were surveyed in a daily basis through a surveillance program with the main goal of register the actual mortality of birds. A total of 1291 raptors of 19 species were found of which 78.5% correspond to two species, the griffon vulture (Gyps fulvus) and the kestrel (Falco tinnunculus). In order to mitigate the impact on raptors, and particularly on the griffon vulture, in 2007 a program based on selective stopping of turbines was imposed, in collaboration with the environmental competent authority, on new approved projects. During 2008 there was a reduction in mortality by 48%, which remained in 2009 with a remarkably lower economic cost. An analysis of the temporal collision patterns will be presented and discussed, with special attention to those species suffering higher mortality rate, and to those who have some degree of threat. (Author)

  6. Money Matters: Mitigating risk to spark private investments in energy efficiency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    Scaling-up investment in energy efficiency is essential to achieving a sustainable energy future. Despite energy efficiency's recognised advantages as a bankable investment with immense climate change mitigation benefits, most of the energy efficiency potential remains untapped and the investment gap to achieve climate goals is tremendous. This report seeks to improve understanding as to why this is so, and what can be done about it.

  7. Final Report for the ZERT Project: Basic Science of Retention Issues, Risk Assessment & Measurement, Monitoring and Verification for Geologic Sequestration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spangler, Lee; Cunningham, Alfred; Lageson, David; Melick, Jesse; Gardner, Mike; Dobeck, Laura; Repasky, Kevin; Shaw, Joseph; Bajura, Richard; McGrail, B Peter; Oldenburg, Curtis M; Wagoner, Jeff; Pawar, Rajesh

    2011-03-31

    ZERT has made major contributions to five main areas of sequestration science: improvement of computational tools; measurement and monitoring techniques to verify storage and track migration of CO{sub 2}; development of a comprehensive performance and risk assessment framework; fundamental geophysical, geochemical and hydrological investigations of CO{sub 2} storage; and investigate innovative, bio-based mitigation strategies.

  8. Educational Approach to Seismic Risk Mitigation in Indian Himalayas -Hazard Map Making Workshops at High Schools-

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koketsu, K.; Oki, S.; Kimura, M.; Chadha, R. K.; Davuluri, S.

    2014-12-01

    How can we encourage people to take preventive measures against damage risks and empower them to take the right actions in emergencies to save their lives? The conventional approach taken by scientists had been disseminating intelligible information on up-to-date seismological knowledge. However, it has been proven that knowledge alone does not have enough impact to modify people's behaviors in emergencies (Oki and Nakayachi, 2012). On the other hand, the conventional approach taken by practitioners had been to conduct emergency drills at schools or workplaces. The loss of many lives from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake has proven that these emergency drills were not enough to save people's lives, unless they were empowered to assess the given situation on their own and react flexibly. Our challenge is to bridge the gap between knowledge and practice. With reference to best practices observed in Tohoku, such as The Miracles of Kamaishi, our endeavor is to design an effective Disaster Preparedness Education Program that is applicable to other disaster-prone regions in the world, even with different geological, socio-economical and cultural backgrounds. The key concepts for this new approach are 1) empowering individuals to take preventive actions to save their lives, 2) granting community-based understanding of disaster risks and 3) building a sense of reality and relevancy to disasters. With these in mind, we held workshops at some high schools in the Lesser Himalayan Region, combining lectures with an activity called "Hazard Map Making" where students proactively identify and assess the hazards around their living areas and learn practical strategies on how to manage risks. We observed the change of awareness of the students by conducting a preliminary questionnaire survey and interviews after each session. Results strongly implied that the significant change of students' attitudes towards disaster preparedness occurred not by the lectures of scientific knowledge, but after completing the whole program of activities. Students closed their presentation by spontaneously adding messages to others about importance of life and preparedness. In this presentation, we share good practices in terms of program design and facilitation that encouraged the transition of participants from a learner to an actor.

  9. Marine and Hydrokinetic Renewable Energy Technologies: Potential Navigational Impacts and Mitigation Measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cool, Richard, M.; Hudon, Thomas, J.; Basco, David, R.; Rondorf, Neil, E.

    2009-12-10

    On April 15, 2008, the Department of Energy (DOE) issued a Funding Opportunity Announcement for Advanced Water Power Projects which included a Topic Area for Marine and Hydrokinetic Renewable Energy Market Acceleration Projects. Within this Topic Area, DOE identified potential navigational impacts of marine and hydrokinetic renewable energy technologies and measures to prevent adverse impacts on navigation as a sub-topic area. DOE defines marine and hydrokinetic technologies as those capable of utilizing one or more of the following resource categories for energy generation: ocean waves; tides or ocean currents; free flowing water in rivers or streams; and energy generation from the differentials in ocean temperature. PCCI was awarded Cooperative Agreement DE-FC36-08GO18177 from the DOE to identify the potential navigational impacts and mitigation measures for marine hydrokinetic technologies, as summarized herein. The contract also required cooperation with the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) and two recipients of awards (Pacific Energy Ventures and reVision) in a sub-topic area to develop a protocol to identify streamlined, best-siting practices. Over the period of this contract, PCCI and our sub-consultants, David Basco, Ph.D., and Neil Rondorf of Science Applications International Corporation, met with USCG headquarters personnel, with U.S. Army Corps of Engineers headquarters and regional personnel, with U.S. Navy regional personnel and other ocean users in order to develop an understanding of existing practices for the identification of navigational impacts that might occur during construction, operation, maintenance, and decommissioning. At these same meetings, “standard” and potential mitigation measures were discussed so that guidance could be prepared for project developers. Concurrently, PCCI reviewed navigation guidance published by the USCG and international community. This report summarizes the results of this effort, provides guidance in the form of a checklist for assessing the navigational impacts of potential marine and hydrokinetic projects, and provides guidance for improving the existing navigational guidance promulgated by the USCG in Navigation Vessel Inspection Circular 02 07. At the request of the USCG, our checklist and mitigation guidance was written in a generic nature so that it could be equally applied to offshore wind projects. PCCI teleconferenced on a monthly basis with DOE, Pacific Energy Ventures and reVision in order to share information and review work products. Although the focus of our effort was on marine and hydrokinetic technologies, as defined above, this effort drew upon earlier work by the USCG on offshore wind renewable energy installations. The guidance provided herein can be applied equally to marine and hydrokinetic technologies and to offshore wind, which are collectively referred to by the USCG as Renewable Energy Installations.

  10. Slope Stability Analysis and Mitigation Measures in the Area of the Sighi?oara Medieval Citadel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George-C?t?lin Silva?

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The Sighi?oara Medieval Citadel has a very big importance to the cultural, architectural and historical heritage of Romania. The citadel is situated on the Fortress Hill and it is the only inhabited fortress in Romania. But underneath the beauty of the Citadel lies some problems that only the inhabitants and the authorities know. These problems consist in the presence of the slope instability phenomenon. Throughout the years the slopes of the Fortress Hill, because of a series of factors, became instable. Thus landslides occurred that affected the Citadel fortress walls. There are still some areas of the walls that have never been reconstructed yet. So a slope stability analysis shall show if the slope instability phenomenon is still active and the mitigation measures recommended will stop the activity of this phenomenon.

  11. Induction motor voltage flicker analysis and its mitigation measures using custom power devices: A case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SANJAY. A. DEOKAR,

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper suggests methods for estimating short time flicker (PST severity on 22/3.3 kV network supplying induction motor loads of municipal integrated water pumping system. The impact of additional connection of induction motors to the same system has been analyzed. Measurements are done at the point of common coupling (PCC to identify background short time flicker levels and the contribution of the already operating induction motors. The paper also analyses and compares different voltage flicker mitigation methodologies to assess their performance with change in line impedance phase angle for this particular application. Here, Matlab-7.01/PSB is used to present the detailed results of all voltage flickers compensating methodologies and to assess the impact of line impedance X/R sweep on effectiveness of custom power devices. It is observed that distribution static synchronous compensator (DSTATCOM is found more effective for compensating voltage flicker generated by the induction motor load.

  12. Dynamic strain measurement system with fiber Bragg gratings and noise mitigation techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A low-cost fiber Bragg grating (FBG) vibrometer specifically suited for structural monitoring and aimed at the detection of low-amplitude vibrations is presented. The optical system exploits an intensity modulation principle of operation, while signal processing techniques are used to complement the transducer to improve the performances: a recursive least-squares adaptive filter improves the noise power mitigation by 14 dB, and an efficient spectral estimator permits operating spectral analysis even under high noise conditions. With these methods, a strain sensitivity of 5.6 n? has been achieved in the ±60 µ? range. Experimental assessment tests carried out in typical structural monitoring contexts have demonstrated that the developed sensor is well suited to measure mechanical perturbations of different structures

  13. Mitigating systematic errors in angular correlation function measurements from wide field surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, C. B.; Hildebrandt, H.

    2015-12-01

    We present an investigation into the effects of survey systematics such as varying depth, point spread function size, and extinction on the galaxy selection and correlation in photometric, multi-epoch, wide area surveys. We take the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Lensing Survey (CFHTLenS) as an example. Variations in galaxy selection due to systematics are found to cause density fluctuations of up to 10 per cent for some small fraction of the area for most galaxy redshift slices and as much as 50 per cent for some extreme cases of faint high-redshift samples. This results in correlations of galaxies against survey systematics of order ˜1 per cent when averaged over the survey area. We present an empirical method for mitigating these systematic correlations from measurements of angular correlation functions using weighted random points. These weighted random catalogues are estimated from the observed galaxy overdensities by mapping these to survey parameters. We are able to model and mitigate the effect of systematic correlations allowing for non-linear dependences of density on systematics. Applied to CFHTLenS, we find that the method reduces spurious correlations in the data by a factor of 2 for most galaxy samples and as much as an order of magnitude in others. Such a treatment is particularly important for an unbiased estimation of very small correlation signals, as e.g. from weak gravitational lensing magnification bias. We impose a criterion for using a galaxy sample in a magnification measurement of the majority of the systematic correlations show improvement and are less than 10 per cent of the expected magnification signal when combined in the galaxy cross-correlation. After correction the galaxy samples in CFHTLenS satisfy this criterion for zphot < 0.9 and will be used in a future analysis of magnification.

  14. Risk measures in living probabilistic safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main objectives of the study are: to define risk measures and suggested uses of them in various living PSA applications for the operational safety management and to describe specific model features required for living PSA applications. The report is based on three case studies performed within the Nordic research project Safety Evaluation by Use of Living PSA and Safety Indicators. (48 refs., 11 figs., 17 tabs.)

  15. Relevance of Fukushima Nuclear Accident to India: Nuclear Radiation Risk and Interventions to Mitigate Adverse Fallout

    OpenAIRE

    Yadav Kapil, Varshney Neha, Aslesh OP, Karmakar MG, Pandav Chandrakant S

    2012-01-01

    The environmental radiation release from Fukushima nuclear power following tsunami in Japan has once again highlighted the omnipotent risk of radiation injury in the today’s world. India is at a real risk from radiation fallout both due to nuclear power plant accidents and nuclear warfare threat. The risk from nuclear radiation accident in India is further increased by the region being endemic for iodine deficiency as adverse effects following nuclear radiation fallout l...

  16. Risk constraint measures developed for the outcome-based strategy for tank waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report is one of a series of supporting documents for the outcome-based characterization strategy developed by PNNL. This report presents a set of proposed risk measures with risk constraint (acceptance) levels for use in the Value of Information process used in the NCS. The characterization strategy has developed a risk-based Value of Information (VOI) approach for comparing the cost-effectiveness of characterizing versus mitigating particular waste tanks or tank clusters. The preference between characterizing or mitigating in order to prevent an accident depends on the cost of those activities relative to the cost of the consequences of the accident. The consequences are defined as adverse impacts measured across a broad set of risk categories such as worker dose, public cancers, ecological harm, and sociocultural impacts. Within each risk measure, various open-quotes constraint levelsclose quotes have been identified that reflect regulatory standards or conventionally negotiated thresholds of harm to Hanford resources and values. The cost of consequences includes the open-quotes costs close-quote of exceeding those constraint levels as well as a strictly linear costing per unit of impact within each of the risk measures. In actual application, VOI based-decision making is an iterative process, with a preliminary low-precision screen of potential technical options against the major risk constraints, followed by VOI analysis to determine the cost-effectiveness of gathering additional information and to select a preferred technical option, and finally a posterior screen to determine whether the preferred option meets all relevant risk constraints and acceptability criteria

  17. Risk constraint measures developed for the outcome-based strategy for tank waste management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harper, B.L.; Gajewski, S.J.; Glantz, C.L. [and others

    1996-09-01

    This report is one of a series of supporting documents for the outcome-based characterization strategy developed by PNNL. This report presents a set of proposed risk measures with risk constraint (acceptance) levels for use in the Value of Information process used in the NCS. The characterization strategy has developed a risk-based Value of Information (VOI) approach for comparing the cost-effectiveness of characterizing versus mitigating particular waste tanks or tank clusters. The preference between characterizing or mitigating in order to prevent an accident depends on the cost of those activities relative to the cost of the consequences of the accident. The consequences are defined as adverse impacts measured across a broad set of risk categories such as worker dose, public cancers, ecological harm, and sociocultural impacts. Within each risk measure, various {open_quotes}constraint levels{close_quotes} have been identified that reflect regulatory standards or conventionally negotiated thresholds of harm to Hanford resources and values. The cost of consequences includes the {open_quotes}costs{close_quote} of exceeding those constraint levels as well as a strictly linear costing per unit of impact within each of the risk measures. In actual application, VOI based-decision making is an iterative process, with a preliminary low-precision screen of potential technical options against the major risk constraints, followed by VOI analysis to determine the cost-effectiveness of gathering additional information and to select a preferred technical option, and finally a posterior screen to determine whether the preferred option meets all relevant risk constraints and acceptability criteria.

  18. The asteroid and comet impact hazard: risk assessment and mitigation options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gritzner, Christian; Dürfeld, Kai; Kasper, Jan; Fasoulas, Stefanos

    2006-08-01

    The impact of extraterrestrial matter onto Earth is a continuous process. On average, some 50,000 tons of dust are delivered to our planet every year. While objects smaller than about 30 m mainly disintegrate in the Earth's atmosphere, larger ones can penetrate through it and cause damage on the ground. When an object of hundreds of meters in diameter impacts an ocean, a tsunami is created that can devastate coastal cities. Further, if a km-sized object hit the Earth it would cause a global catastrophe due to the transport of enormous amounts of dust and vapour into the atmosphere resulting in a change in the Earth's climate. This article gives an overview of the near-Earth asteroid and comet (near-Earth object-NEO) impact hazard and the NEO search programmes which are gathering important data on these objects. It also points out options for impact hazard mitigation by using deflection systems. It further discusses the critical constraints for NEO deflection strategies and systems as well as mitigation and evacuation costs and benefits. Recommendations are given for future activities to solve the NEO impact hazard problem. PMID:16670908

  19. Crime, violence, and behavioral health: collaborative community strategies for risk mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinals, Debra A

    2015-06-01

    Criminal conduct is not always violent, and violence does not always lead to criminal charges. Moreover, crime and violence have multifaceted etiologies. Most violence in society is not attributable to mental illness. Where there is a small relationship between violence and mental illness, the risk of violence increases for individuals with substance use histories. Underlying trauma can also play a role. Antisocial attitudes, behaviors, and peer groups further increase the risk that individuals, including those with mental illness, will find themselves at risk of criminal recidivism. Criminal histories among public mental health populations, and mental health and substance use disorders among criminal populations are each higher than general population comparisons. Care within behavioral health settings should therefore target decreased criminal recidivism and decreased violence as part of recovery for those individuals at risk, using trauma-informed approaches and peer supports. Interventions that show promise bring criminal justice and behavioral health systems together, and include police-based diversion, specialty courts, court-based alternatives to incarceration, and coordinated re-entry programs. This article reviews these options along with specific risk management strategies, such as using risk, needs, and responsivity factors as a means of improving overall outcomes for persons with mental illness, while minimizing their risk of further criminalization and victimization. PMID:25915735

  20. Identifying robust large-scale flood risk mitigation strategies: A quasi-2D hydraulic model as a tool for the Po river

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellarin, Attilio; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Brath, Armando

    2011-01-01

    This paper focuses on the identification of large-scale flood risk mitigation strategies for the middle-lower reach of River Po, the longest Italian river and the largest in terms of streamflow. This study develops and tests the applicability of a quasi-2D hydraulic model to aid the identification of large-scale flood risk mitigation strategies relative to a 500-year flood event other than levee heightening, which is not technically viable nor economically conceivable for the case study. Different geometrical configurations of the embankment system are considered and modelled in the study: no overtopping; overtopping and levee breaching; overtopping without levee breaching. The quasi-2D model resulted in being a very useful tool for (1) addressing the problem of flood risk mitigation from a global - perspective (i.e., entire middle-lower reach of River Po), (2) identifying critical reaches, inundation areas and corresponding overflow volumes, and (3) generating reliable boundary conditions for smaller scale studies aimed at further analyzing the hypothesized flood mitigation strategies using more complex modelling tools (e.g., fully 2D approaches). These are crucial tasks for institutions and public bodies in charge of formulating robust flood risk management strategies for large European rivers, in the light of the recent Directive 2007/60/EC on the assessment and management of flood risks ( European Parliament, 2007).

  1. Debris flow risk mitigation by the means of rigid and flexible barriers – experimental tests and impact analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Canelli

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The impact of a debris flow on a structure can have disastrous effects because of the enormous destructive potential of this type of phenomenon. Although the introduction of risk mitigation structures such as the Sabo Dam, the filter dam and more recently flexible barriers is usual, there are very few methods that are universally recognized for the safe design of such structures. This study presents the results of experimental tests, conducted with the use of a specifically created flume, in order to obtain detailed knowledge of the mechanical aspects, and to analyze the dynamics of the impact of a debris flow on different types of structures. The analyses of the tests, together with the calculation of the thrust caused by the flow, have made it possible to analyze the dynamics of the impact, which has shown differing effects, on the basis of the type of barrier that has been installed.

  2. Public health activities for mitigation of radiation exposures and risk communication challenges after the Fukushima nuclear accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimura, Tsutomu; Yamaguchi, Ichiro; Terada, Hiroshi; Robert Svendsen, Erik; Kunugita, Naoki

    2015-01-01

    Herein we summarize the public health actions taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radiation after the Fukushima accident that occurred on 11 March 2011 in order to record valuable lessons learned for disaster preparedness. Evacuations from the radiation-affected areas and control of the distribution of various food products contributed to the reduction of external and internal radiation exposure resulting from the Fukushima incident. However, risk communication is also an important issue during the emergency response effort and subsequent phases of dealiing with a nuclear disaster. To assist with their healing process, sound, reliable scientific information should continue to be disseminated to the radiation-affected communities via two-way communication. We will describe the essential public health actions following a nuclear disaster for the early, intermediate and late phases that will be useful for radiological preparedness planning in response to other nuclear or radiological disasters. PMID:25862700

  3. Public health activities for mitigation of radiation exposures and risk communication challenges after the Fukushima nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herein we summarize the public health actions taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radiation after the Fukushima accident that occurred on 11 March 2011 in order to record valuable lessons learned for disaster preparedness. Evacuations from the radiation-affected areas and control of the distribution of various food products contributed to the reduction of external and internal radiation exposure resulting from the Fukushima incident. However, risk communication is also an important issue during the emergency response effort and subsequent phases of dealing with a nuclear disaster. To assist with their healing process, sound, reliable scientific information should continue to be disseminated to the radiation-affected communities via two-way communication. We will describe the essential public health actions following a nuclear disaster for the early, intermediate and late phases that will be useful for radiological preparedness planning in response to other nuclear or radiological disasters. (author)

  4. Public health activities for mitigation of radiation exposures and risk communication challenges after the Fukushima nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimura, Tsutomu; Yamaguchi, Ichiro; Terada, Hiroshi; Robert Svendsen, Erik; Kunugita, Naoki

    2015-05-01

    Herein we summarize the public health actions taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radiation after the Fukushima accident that occurred on 11 March 2011 in order to record valuable lessons learned for disaster preparedness. Evacuations from the radiation-affected areas and control of the distribution of various food products contributed to the reduction of external and internal radiation exposure resulting from the Fukushima incident. However, risk communication is also an important issue during the emergency response effort and subsequent phases of dealiing with a nuclear disaster. To assist with their healing process, sound, reliable scientific information should continue to be disseminated to the radiation-affected communities via two-way communication. We will describe the essential public health actions following a nuclear disaster for the early, intermediate and late phases that will be useful for radiological preparedness planning in response to other nuclear or radiological disasters. PMID:25862700

  5. UNDERSTANDING METHANE EMISSIONS SOURCES AND VIABLE MITIGATION MEASURES IN THE NATURAL GAS TRANSMISSION SYSTEMS: RUSSIAN AND U.S. EXPERIENCE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ishkov, A.; Akopova, Gretta; Evans, Meredydd; Yulkin, Grigory; Roshchanka, Volha; Waltzer, Suzie; Romanov, K.; Picard, David; Stepanenko, O.; Neretin, D.

    2011-10-01

    This article will compare the natural gas transmission systems in the U.S. and Russia and review experience with methane mitigation technologies in the two countries. Russia and the United States (U.S.) are the world's largest consumers and producers of natural gas, and consequently, have some of the largest natural gas infrastructure. This paper compares the natural gas transmission systems in Russia and the U.S., their methane emissions and experiences in implementing methane mitigation technologies. Given the scale of the two systems, many international oil and natural gas companies have expressed interest in better understanding the methane emission volumes and trends as well as the methane mitigation options. This paper compares the two transmission systems and documents experiences in Russia and the U.S. in implementing technologies and programs for methane mitigation. The systems are inherently different. For instance, while the U.S. natural gas transmission system is represented by many companies, which operate pipelines with various characteristics, in Russia predominately one company, Gazprom, operates the gas transmission system. However, companies in both countries found that reducing methane emissions can be feasible and profitable. Examples of technologies in use include replacing wet seals with dry seals, implementing Directed Inspection and Maintenance (DI&M) programs, performing pipeline pump-down, applying composite wrap for non-leaking pipeline defects and installing low-bleed pneumatics. The research methodology for this paper involved a review of information on methane emissions trends and mitigation measures, analytical and statistical data collection; accumulation and analysis of operational data on compressor seals and other emission sources; and analysis of technologies used in both countries to mitigate methane emissions in the transmission sector. Operators of natural gas transmission systems have many options to reduce natural gas losses. Depending on the value of gas, simple, low-cost measures, such as adjusting leaking equipment components, or larger-scale measures, such as installing dry seals on compressors, can be applied.

  6. L-Band Digital Aeronautical Communications System Engineering - Initial Safety and Security Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract NNC05CA85C, Task 7: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed L-band (960 to 1164 MHz) terrestrial en route communications system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents a preliminary safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the L-band communication system after the technology is chosen and system rollout timing is determined. The security risk analysis resulted in identifying main security threats to the proposed system as well as noting additional threats recommended for a future security analysis conducted at a later stage in the system development process. The document discusses various security controls, including those suggested in the COCR Version 2.0.

  7. Policies and Measures to Realise Industrial Energy Efficiency and Mitigate Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The industrial sector is responsible for a significant share of global energy use and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Energy efficiency is commonly seen as the most cost-effective, least-polluting, and most readily-accessible industrial energy saving option available in the industrial sector worldwide. Capturing the full extent of these potential end-use energy efficiency improvements rapidly is essential if the world is to be on a path to stabilise greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations to a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. In the International Energy Agency (IEA) 450 parts per million stabilisation scenario, over a quarter of all energy efficiency gains need to come from the industrial sector by 2050, largely by changing the pattern of industrial energy use. The reduction potential estimated by IEA and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for five energy-intensive industrial sub-sectors ranges from about 10 to 40 per cent, depending upon the sector. There is significant potential to reduce, at low or no cost, the amount of energy used to manufacture most commodities. Many policies and programmes - at a national level - have already demonstrated significant improvements in industrial energy efficiency. The associate reduction in energy needs often also improves economic competitiveness as well as mitigates GHG emissions. However, at an international level, approaches such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) are not yet delivering the expected energy efficiency improvements. Existing and effective industrial energy efficiency policies and measures could be replicated at a global level. Key elements of those policies and measures include increasing facility management attention to the issue of energy efficiency; promoting the dissemination of information, practice, and tools; increasing the auditing and implementation capacity; and developing the market for industrial energy efficiency investment. Better energy efficiency can produce substantial benefits both for global economic growth and poverty reduction as well as for mitigating climate change. The paper details examples of effective industrial energy efficiency policies and programmes. It provides a list of recommended actions to accelerate the adoption of industrial energy efficiency technologies and practices. Many policies and programmes have elements which seem likely to be readily deployable, replicable and transferable. A successful post-Kyoto architecture, regardless of its specifics, should therefore enable these elements see the light of reality

  8. Joint System Prognostics For Increased Efficiency And Risk Mitigation In Advanced Nuclear Reactor Instrumentation and Control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donald D. Dudenhoeffer; Tuan Q. Tran; Ronald L. Boring; Bruce P. Hallbert

    2006-08-01

    The science of prognostics is analogous to a doctor who, based on a set of symptoms and patient tests, assesses a probable cause, the risk to the patient, and a course of action for recovery. While traditional prognostics research has focused on the aspect of hydraulic and mechanical systems and associated failures, this project will take a joint view in focusing not only on the digital I&C aspect of reliability and risk, but also on the risks associated with the human element. Model development will not only include an approximation of the control system physical degradation but also on human performance degradation. Thus the goal of the prognostic system is to evaluate control room operation; to identify and potentially take action when performance degradation reduces plant efficiency, reliability or safety.

  9. Environmental benefits and risks of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI): risk mitigation or trade-off?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; FjordbØge, Annika Sidelmann

    2009-01-01

    The use of nanoscaled particles in environmental remediation is gaining increasing amounts of attention in recent years, including the use of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI) for soil and groundwater remediation. The main advantages of its use include high degrees of reactivity towards a wide range of contaminants, enhanced mobility of the often coated particles, and its cost-effective in situ applications. Numerous studies have shown that compared to larger sized iron particles nZVI may have some superior properties, due to high surface areas and small sizes associated with nanoscale dimensions. While the use and further development of nZVI is understandably heralded as an environmentally-beneficial technology, the potentials risks of introducing these nanoparticles into the environment also needs to be considered. To date most research has focused on the potential benefits of nZVI and very little research has investigated its potential health and environmental risks. Nonetheless, some recent studies have documented adverse effects from its exposure including the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS), oxidative stress, bactericidal effects, DNA damage, and inflammatory responses. Moreover, field site injections often involve the use of large quantities of nZVI (10-50 g/L) which may be directly injected into groundwater flow. Combined with the pursuit of designing more mobile and reactive particles, this may potentially lead to risks related to environmental exposures of substantial concentrations. In this study, we provide a brief synopsis of the expected environmental benefits and potential risks of nZVI, particularly focusing on its environmental fate and behavior and potential role as contaminant carrier. These are some areas of primary concern for risk assessors. Furthermore, we estimate and compare the span between probable environmental concentrations from its use in the field and concentrations which have been shown to cause adverse effects in laboratory settings. This is in light of the challenges that quantitative risk assessments face for nZVI and other nanoparticles, in part due to extensive and fundamental uncertainties. These data may provide a starting point to more thoroughly investigate the potential risks of nZVI and ultimately help scientists, engineers, and decision makers make better informed decisions regarding the use of nZVI for environmental remediation.

  10. Soil bioengineering measures for disaster mitigation and environmental restoration in Central America: authochtonal cuttings suitability and economic efficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrone, A.; Preti, F.

    2009-04-01

    The use of Soil Bio-Engineering techniques in Developing countries is a relevant issue for Disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on authochtonal plants suitable for this kind of works and on economic efficiency is essential for the divulgation of this Discipline. The present paper is focused on this two issues related to the realization of various typologies of Soil Bio-engineering works in the Humid tropic of Nicaragua. In the area of Río Blanco, located in the Department of Matagalpa, Soil bio-engineering installations were built in several sites. The particular structures built were: drainages with live fascine mattress, a live palisade, a vegetated live crib wall for riverbank protection, a vegetative covering made of a metallic net and biotextile coupled with a live palisade made of bamboo. In order to evaluate the suitability of the various plants used in the works, monitorings were performed, one in the live palisade alongside an unpaved road and the other on the live crib wall along a riverbank, collecting survival rate and morphological parameters data. Concerning the economic efficiency we proceed to a financial analysis of the works and once the unit price was obtained, we converted the amount in EPP Dollars (Equal Purchasing Power) in order to compare the Nicaraguan context with the Italian one. Among the used species we found that Madero negro (Gliricidia sepium) and Roble macuelizo (Tabebuia rosea) are adequate for Soil-bioengineering measure on slopes while Helequeme (Erythrina fusca) reported a successful behaviour only in the crib wall for riverbank protection. In the comparison of the costs in Nicaragua and in Italy, the unit price reduction for the central American country ranges between 1.5 times (for the vegetative covering) and almost 4 times (for the fascine mattress) if it's used the EPP dollar exchange rate. Thus, a conclusion can be reached with regard to hydrological-risk mitigating actions performed on a basin scale and through naturalistic techniques: not only are they technically attainable, even in hardship areas (by maximizing the contribution of the local labor force and minimizing the use of mechanical equipment), but they are also economically sustainable.

  11. The severe accident mitigation concept and the design measures for core melt retention of the European Pressurized Reactor (EPR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For the mitigation of severe accidents, the European Pressurized Water Reactor (EPR) has adopted and improved the defense-in-depth approaches of its predecessors, the French 'N4' and the German 'Konvoi' plants. Beyond the corresponding evolutionary changes, the EPR includes a new, 4th level of defense-in-depth that is aimed at limiting the consequences of a postulated severe accident with core melting. It involves a strengthening of the confinement function and the avoidance of large early releases. The latter requires the prevention of scenarios and events that can result in high loads on the containment, e.g., a failure of the Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) at high internal pressure. This is achieved by dedicated design measures. The paper gives an short overview of the general concept and the strategies for: primary circuit depressurization, H2 mitigation and the avoidance of energetic Fuel Coolant Interactions (FCIs). It then describes, in detail, the conceptual solution for the stabilization and long-term cooling of the molten core. The EPR melt retention strategy supports itself on the use of an ex-vessel core catcher located in a compartment lateral to the pit. The related spatial and functional separation isolates the core catcher from the various loads during RPV failure and, at the same time, avoids risks resulting from an unintended initiation of the system during power operation. Within the core catcher, the melt will be passively flooded with water from the Internal Refueling Water Storage Tank (IRWST). Due to the effective cooling of the melt from all sides a stable state will be reached within hours and complete solidification of the melt is achieved after a few days. The core catcher can optionally be supplied by the Containment Heat Removal System (CHRS). In this active mode of operation, the water levels inside spreading compartment and reactor pit rise and the pools become subcooled, so further steaming is avoided. This results in a depressurization of the containment in the long-term

  12. A Human Factor Analysis to Mitigate Fall Risk Factors in an Aerospace Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ware, Joylene H.

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the study done to quanitfy the risks from falls from three locations (i.e., Shuttle Landing Facility Launch Complex Payloads and Vehicle Assembly Building) at the Kennedy Space Center. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is reviewed and the mathematical model developed is detailed.

  13. Ready for the Storm: Education for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagawa, Fumiyo; Selby, David

    2012-01-01

    Incidences of disaster and climate change impacts are rising globally. Disaster risk reduction and climate change education are two educational responses to present and anticipated increases in the severity and frequency of hazards. They share significant complementarities and potential synergies, the latter as yet largely unexploited. Three…

  14. Joint measurement of risk aversion, prudence and temperance

    OpenAIRE

    Ebert, Sebastian; Wiesen, Daniel

    2010-01-01

    We propose a method to measure the intensity of risk aversion, prudence (downside risk aversion) and temperance (outer risk aversion) in experiments. Higher-order risk compensations are defined within the proper risk apportionment model of Eeckhoudt and Schlesinger [American Economic Review, 96 (2006) 280] that are elicited using a multiple price list format. This approach is not based on expected utility theory. In our experiment we find evidence for risk aversion, prudence and temperance. W...

  15. Calibration and Multipath Mitigation for Increased Accuracy of Time-of-Flight Camera Measurements in Robotic Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Fuchs, Stefan

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation entitled "Calibration and Multipath Mitigation for Increased Ac- curacy of Time-of-Flight Camera Measurements in Robotic Applications" discusses the systematic measurement errors of a Time-of-Flight (ToF) camera and introduces two approaches to compensate for these errors. ToF cameras are active, imaging sensors, which provide depth images and monochromatic images with a frame rate up to 50 Hz. These devices allow not only for two-dimensional computer vision algorithms but a...

  16. Downgrading Complexity in the Exxon Valdez Crisis: Using Information as a Risk Mitigation Tool in Complex Adaptive Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Snow

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available

     

    In a high-stakes crisis environment, trial and error can be too costly an approach. The Exxon Valdez oil spill provides an example of how complex adaptive systems can have simple, preventable problems and complex, unpredictable problems can come together with disastrous consequences. Not every possible contingency can be accounted for. However, research and experience can be applied to mitigate these types of risks by using information to reduce or "downgrade" the complexity of the contributing situations. The Cynefin contexts of complexity can be used to assess problems when they arise. Downgrading the level of complexity for a given problem can turn formerly complex or complicated situations into simple ones that require less knowledge and resources to resolve and can reduce the risk of failure. The possibility and consequences of failure may remain, but downgraded complexity can reduce the likelihood of this failure and make problems more manageable when they do occur.

  17. Using inferred drivers of discarding behaviour to evaluate discard mitigation measures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Catchpole, T.L.; Feekings, Jordan P.

    2014-01-01

    Discards refer to the part of the catch not retained on board during commercial fishing operations, but returned to the sea. The proposed European Union Common Fisheries Policy reform, to be implemented in 2014, sets out a gradual elimination of discards by reducing unwanted catches and ensuring that all catches are landed. To develop successful discard mitigation measures, it is necessary to identify the reasons for discarding. Here, we have developed a simple model that can be applied to data from observer programmes (ObsPs) to establish the contribution of different drivers of discarding behaviour. The analysis makes inferences on the causes of discarding by partitioning discards into four categories based on the length of the fish and the associated regulatory restrictions. The drivers are defined as: fish discarded below the legalminimum landing size; fish forwhich there is no market and that do not have aminimum landing size; fish for which there are inconsistencies in market and sorting practices; and discards that can be attributed to fishers’ responses to quota restrictions. The approach is applied to data generated from ObsPs from five EuropeanMember States. All the inferred drivers contribute to the total discard quantity. Their relative contributions vary widely across countries, areas, gears, and species

  18. Beyond Value-at-Risk: GlueVaR Distortion Risk Measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belles-Sampera, Jaume; Guillén, Montserrat; Santolino, Miguel

    2013-06-11

    We propose a new family of risk measures, called GlueVaR, within the class of distortion risk measures. Analytical closed-form expressions are shown for the most frequently used distribution functions in financial and insurance applications. The relationship between GlueVaR, value-at-risk, and tail value-at-risk is explained. Tail subadditivity is investigated and it is shown that some GlueVaR risk measures satisfy this property. An interpretation in terms of risk attitudes is provided and a discussion is given on the applicability in nonfinancial problems such as health, safety, environmental, or catastrophic risk management. PMID:23758120

  19. Residents in a high radon potential geographic area: Their risk perception and attitude toward testing and mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boone County, Indiana was identified by the EPA as one of the high radon potential geographic areas. Health education campaigns are needed to prevent resident's unnecessary radon exposure. In order to design suitable programs, a questionnaire mail survey was conducted to measure socio-demographic characteristics of County resident's knowledge about radon, attitude toward radon testing and mitigation, support of education campaigns, and the best media to deliver radon education campaigns. A stratified random sampling method was applied for a total of 400 samples. The number of samples from each township/city was a proportion of their taxable parcels. The survey return rate was 39.8%. The data were analyzed by Epi Info and SPSS. The statistical significant level was set at ? = 0.05. The results showed that resident's knowledge about radon was at a relatively superficial level. There was no association identified between the knowledge of radon and gender, age, family income, or education, except that females more frequently believed in false effects caused by radon. A significant correlation between radon knowledge and home radon tests was observed. Also found in this study was that respondents with better knowledge about diseases caused by radon had more confidence in radon mitigation actions. Newspaper was chosen by respondents as the most favorite media to deliver radon health education campaigns. Health education campaigns for the residents of Boone County might be conducted by local governments and/or other organizations

  20. Literature review and risk mitigation strategy for unintended consequences of computerized physician order entry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowan, Lisa

    2013-01-01

    Computerized physician order entry (CPOE) is a form of patient management health technology software used for providers to enter medical orders into a computer system. CPOE is a health care solution used to improve patient safety and quality of care, decrease costs, and reduce the risk of medical errors. However, there are unintended consequences to electronic health records that can actually cause an increase in medical errors. Two areas of concern that risk management practitioners need to monitor and analyze are the effects of CPOE on nurse-physician communication and operational workflows. A strategic proactive plan will reduce the likelihood of adverse events, specifically medication errors. Providers and nurses will require focused education on effective communication strategies and leadership will need to promote a culture of safety. PMID:23505740

  1. Different risk-adjusted fund performance measures: a comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Grau-Carles, Pilar; Sainz, Jorge; Otamendi, Javier; Doncel, Luis Miguel

    2009-01-01

    Traditional risk-adjusted performance measures, such as the Sharpe ratio, the Treynor index or Jensen's alpha, based on the mean-variance framework, are widely used to rank mutual funds. However, performance measures that consider risk by taking into account only losses, such as Value-at-Risk (VaR), would be more appropriate. Standard VaR assumes that returns are normally distributed, though they usually present skewness and kurtosis. In this paper we compare these different measures of risk:...

  2. Arsenic Contamination of Groundwater: A Review of Sources, Prevalence, Health Risks, and Strategies for Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Shiv Shankar; Uma Shanker; Shikha*1

    2014-01-01

    Arsenic contamination of groundwater in different parts of the world is an outcome of natural and/or anthropogenic sources, leading to adverse effects on human health and ecosystem. Millions of people from different countries are heavily dependent on groundwater containing elevated level of As for drinking purposes. As contamination of groundwater, poses a serious risk to human health. Excessive and prolonged exposure of inorganic As with drinking water is causing arsenicosis, a deteriorating...

  3. Mitigating Crime Risks in the International Logistics Network: the Case of Swiss Post

    OpenAIRE

    Männistö, Toni Antero

    2015-01-01

    The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 raised major concerns about the vulnerability of global transportation systems to transnational crime and terrorism. Although the attacks occurred in the context of passenger transport, they spurred unprecedented academic research on supply chain security (SCS). Alas, today, more than a decade later, theoretical underpinnings of the SCS discipline remain weak. First, the extant SCS literature offers only a cursory and ambiguous view on the risks tha...

  4. Mitigating Information security risks during the Transition to Integrated Operations:Models & Data

    OpenAIRE

    Qian, Ying

    2010-01-01

    This research studies the change of information security risks during the transition to Integrated Operations (an operation extensively utilize advanced information communication technology to connect offshore facilities and onshore control centers and even vendors.) in Norsk Hydro, a Norwegian oil and gas company. The specific case for this study is a pilot platform in transition to Integrated Operations, Brage: twenty traditional work processes are to be replaced by new work ...

  5. Development of a Meteorological Risk Map for Disaster Mitigation and Management in the Chishan Basin, Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tai-Li Lee

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study involved developing a natural disaster risk assessment framework based on the consideration of three phases: a pre-disaster phase, disaster impact phase, and post-disaster recovery phase. The exposure of natural disasters exhibits unique characteristics. The interactions of numerous factors should be considered in risk assessment as well as in monitoring environment to provide natural disaster warnings. In each phase, specific factors indicate the relative status in the area subjected to risk assessment. Three types of natural disaster were assessed, namely debris flows, floods, and droughts. The Chishan basin in Taiwan was used as a case study and the adequacy of the relocation of Xiaolin village was evaluated. Incorporating resilience into the assessment revealed that the higher the exposure is, the higher the resilience becomes. This is because highly populated areas are typically allocated enough resources to respond to disasters. In addition, highly populated areas typically exhibit high resilience. The application of this analysis in the policy of relocation of damaged village after disaster provides valuable information for decision makers to achieve the sustainability of land use planning.

  6. Risk measures in practical use: risk reduction has its price, but is it known?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Different risk measures are discussed in order to decide which to use to best express the risk workers are exposed to. A new risk measure is introduced and advantages and disadvantages are presented. The need for a new risk measure (Expected Number of Fatalities Rate ENFR), is discussed and explained with the help of an example. The example also contains a comparison with the well-known FAR-value. Also some problems and benefits of introducing a measure of the kind: ?RISK/?$ are discussed and conclusions made. The question of what amount of money should be used on risk reducing activities is also addressed

  7. Full-Scaled Advanced Systems Testbed: Ensuring Success of Adaptive Control Research Through Project Lifecycle Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlock, Kate M.

    2011-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Dryden Flight Research Center completed flight testing of adaptive controls research on the Full-Scale Advance Systems Testbed (FAST) in January of 2011. The research addressed technical challenges involved with reducing risk in an increasingly complex and dynamic national airspace. Specific challenges lie with the development of validated, multidisciplinary, integrated aircraft control design tools and techniques to enable safe flight in the presence of adverse conditions such as structural damage, control surface failures, or aerodynamic upsets. The testbed is an F-18 aircraft serving as a full-scale vehicle to test and validate adaptive flight control research and lends a significant confidence to the development, maturation, and acceptance process of incorporating adaptive control laws into follow-on research and the operational environment. The experimental systems integrated into FAST were designed to allow for flexible yet safe flight test evaluation and validation of modern adaptive control technologies and revolve around two major hardware upgrades: the modification of Production Support Flight Control Computers (PSFCC) and integration of two, fourth-generation Airborne Research Test Systems (ARTS). Post-hardware integration verification and validation provided the foundation for safe flight test of Nonlinear Dynamic Inversion and Model Reference Aircraft Control adaptive control law experiments. To ensure success of flight in terms of cost, schedule, and test results, emphasis on risk management was incorporated into early stages of design and flight test planning and continued through the execution of each flight test mission. Specific consideration was made to incorporate safety features within the hardware and software to alleviate user demands as well as into test processes and training to reduce human factor impacts to safe and successful flight test. This paper describes the research configuration, experiment functionality, overall risk mitigation, flight test approach and results, and lessons learned of adaptive controls research of the Full-Scale Advanced Systems Testbed.

  8. Modelling the impacts of climate change on muddy flooding and the effectiveness of mitigation measures in Flanders, Belgium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullan, Donal; Vandaele, Karel; Boardman, John; Favis-Mortlock, Dave

    2014-05-01

    The 'off-site' impacts of soil erosion have become a major source of concern in Europe and elsewhere during recent decades. This is due, in part, to the environmental damage and economic costs associated with 'muddy flooding.' Muddy floods occur when large volumes of runoff are generated on agricultural land, triggering the detachment and transport of sediment. This may then be deposited in neighbouring settlements. The Belgian loess belt is particularly vulnerable to muddy floods since loess-derived soils are susceptible to crusting, which decreases their infiltration rates and promotes high levels of runoff and erosion. Severe economic damages in many Flemish municipalities led to government provision of funding for voluntary mitigation measures from 2001. In the Melsterbeek catchment, where several villages have been particularly affected by severe muddy floods, mitigation measures have been implemented and their effectiveness subsequently monitored. Runoff, erosion and the occurrence of muddy floods have all considerably decreased. The scheme was cost-effective within three years. The success of these mitigation measures may diminish over the coming decades, however, as climate change poses new threats ranging from direct changes in rainfall intensity to the indirect effects of climate-driven shifts in land use. Such changes could potentially generate increased runoff over agricultural land and lead to a resurgence of muddy flooding in vulnerable areas, with severe repercussions for the effectiveness of mitigation measures. In this study, we model the impacts of climate change on muddy flooding for a hillslope in the Melsterbeek catchment where mitigation measures have been implemented, enabling us to quantify the threat which climate change poses to their effectiveness. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) was employed. Model data for present-day conditions were perturbed with future climate change parameters derived from statistical downscaling methods, and for land use change projections developed using a scenarios-based framework. Results reveal that existing mitigation measures may become compromised under a selection of future scenarios of climate and land use. Future efforts at conservation may need to become more flexible to remain effective in the changing environment of the coming decades.

  9. The reordering urban community participation. A strategy for the prevention and mitigation of risk by geological phenomena: Case of implementation in Medellin, Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this article, it is showed the fulfilled methodology by the municipality of Medellin-Colombia and its results, at the Picacho sector, for the risk prevention and mitigation of rock fall It is formulated and developed a project for urban rearrangement, in which the community participation is the transverse component at the planning- management, risk prevention- mitigation, legalization of land's possession, housing improvement- relocation, and urban infrastructure. The most important results were a) the improvement of quality's life for residents, benefiting directly about 2,500 people and indirectly about 24,000, with one investment near 3.6 dollar millions; b) construction of social web and membership sense; c) better governance and better state-community relation; and d) risk reduction of rock fall As the main conclusion it is expounded that the community participation at all stages of the project and the concept that the risk is non resolved problem of the development are two determining elements so that urban rearrangement may be, in many cases, the better option for the risk prevention and mitigation of geological phenomena in urban areas of unmannerly development, rather than one massive relocation of the population

  10. FDA's risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS): effective and efficient safety tools or process poltergeist?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Andrew; Milne, Christopher-Paul

    2011-01-01

    Implementation of REMS began in March 2008 and by mid-2011 close to 200 New Molecular Entities (NMEs) and New Drug class="hlt">Applications (NDAs) (i.e., NMEs plus new doses and formulations of drugs) approved by FDA were required to have a REMS. As the REMS program expands, there has been an increasing chorus of stakeholders who have expressed a range of concerns and criticisms about the program's impact on the health care system. Yet, these impacts still remain underexplored by academic study. The authors conducted a series of qualitative interviews with individuals representing the experiences and opinions of five stakeholder groups involved in various aspects of REMS programs. The groups were comprised of representatives of biopharmaceutical companies, payers, health care providers (HCPs), pharmacists, and patient advocacy organizations. Questions were organized around the following themes: REMS implementation and administration; REMS components (i.e., medication guides, communication plans, and elements to assure safe use); effects on patient access and delivery of care; program outcomes; and, issues specific to each stakeholder group. What was most surprising was not that respondent groups with such divergent perspectives and diverse roles within the REMS program disagreed on certain points, but rather that they agreed on so many points. There was general agreement that the program is burdensome and not an improvement over previous risk management programs. Respondents also concurred almost unanimously that the patient information is weighted much too heavily on the risk end of the risk/benefit scale. Similarly, there was general concern from all the responder groups about uncompensated time and resources expended by HCPs and pharmacists. While some positive aspects were noted, these tended to be viewed as opportunities for improvement rather than actual benefits of the REMS program as currently implemented. As PDUFA V draws ever nearer, it's clear that FDA is attempting to address the program's shortcomings but it is clear that more needs to be done. PMID:24505829

  11. Hardware improvements on PWR plants to mitigate risks during mid-loop cold shutdown operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Improved low pressure RCS level control, vortex detection in the RHR system and an automatic reactor coolant make-up system (AMU) have all been recently introduced on PWRs in France to effectively reduce the risk of the loss of RHR cooling and core uncovery during cold shutdowns with primary circuit intervention especially during mid-loop cold shutdown operation. Moreover, these modifications only have positive impact on plant availability. The present paper describes modification implemented on 1,300 MWe plants, knowing that those implemented on 900 MWe plants are quite similar

  12. Analysis Methodologies and Ameliorative Techniques for Mitigation of the Risk in Churches with Drum Domes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present work fits into the interesting theme of seismic prevention for protection of the monumental patrimony made up of churches with drum domes. Specifically, with respect to a church in the historic area of Catania, chosen as a monument exemplifying the typology examined, the seismic behavior is analyzed in the linear field using modern dynamic identification techniques. The dynamically identified computational model arrived at made it possible to identify the macro-element most at risk, the dome-drum system. With respect to this system the behavior in the nonlinear field is analyzed through dynamic tests on large-scale models in the presence of various types of improving reinforcement. The results are used to appraise the ameliorative contribution afforded by each of them and to choose the most suitable type of reinforcement, optimizing the stiffness/ductility ratio of the system

  13. HOW TO MITIGATE THE RISKS OF MANAGING ONLINE ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS BY TRAINING WITH SIMBOUND SIMULATION GAME

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louis Doru Havriliuc

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to describe how a digital marketing simulation system improve the knowledge and skills of students, as well as their status as members of a virtual community, which gradually evolve from novice to expert in managing online advertising campaigns. The body of the article encompasses three contributions: the know-how of the Simbound Game author, the practical experiences of an instructor, who coordinated students’ activities during three courses and of a Master student – the leader of a team which got the first position after the completion of a game. The advantages of managing no-risk online advertising campaigns are revealed and the students are able to understand how various online marketing tools become useful while a firm expands its operations in e-commerce and must fulfill new tasks and responsibilities. The paper concludes with the practical implications of the Simbound simulation-based learning and the ideas included in the future research agenda.

  14. Controls Mitigating the Risk of Confidential Information Disclosure by Facebook: Essential Concern in Auditing Information Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Ognyanov Kuyumdzhiev

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Facebook allows people to easily share information about themselves which in some cases could be classified as confidential or sensitive in the organisation they’re working for. In this paper we discuss the type of data stored by Facebook and the scope of the terms “confidential” and “sensitive data”. The intersection of these areas shows that there is high possibility for confidential data disclosure in organisations with none or ineffective security policy. This paper proposes a strategy for managing the risks of information leakage. We define five levels of controls against posting non-public data on Facebook - security policy, applications installed on employees’ workstations, specific router software or firmware, software in the cloud, Facebook itself. Advantages and disadvantages of every level are evaluated. As a result we propose developing of new control integrated in the social media.

  15. The nitrogen fate beyond the current nutrient mitigation measures: sustainability of an integrated agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieu, V.; Billen, G. F.; Garnier, J.; Lancelot, C.; Gypens, N.

    2010-12-01

    Located in the North-Western Europe the terrestrial continuum that includes the Seine, Somme, and Scheldt River basins offers an interesting example of a transborder territory (France, Belgium, and Netherlands) with high-intensity anthropogenic pressures. It well-illustrates the rapid development of modern agriculture in industrialised countries and the resulting severe alteration of water resources and jeopardising the capacity of rural territories to produce drinking water. The corresponding nutrient loads delivered then into the Southern Bight of the North Sea, strongly affect the ecological functioning of the coastal zone. An integrated ‘river-ocean’ assessment, coupling two deterministic models - the SENEQUE RIVESTRAHLER model simulating nutrient dynamic in the drainage network and the MIRO model describing the ecological functioning coastal ecosystem - points out the relevance of current policy based measures (improvement of waste water treatment) to mitigate phosphorous emissions, while the nitrogen pollution related to agriculture will remain critical despite the implementation of classical management measure (good agricultural practices). Therefore and irrespectively of the current political agenda, a more radical alternative is established, consisting of a generalised shift to an integrated agriculture of all agricultural areas in the three basins, excluding the use of synthetically compounded fertilisers and the importation of livestock feed. Such scenario aims at evaluating whether agriculture, by essence, can conciliate (i) the demand for food and feed by local populations, (ii) a good ecological functioning of aquatic ecosystems and (iii) a balanced nutrient status for the adjacent coastal area. This scenario involves an increased livestock density in the Seine and Somme and a decrease in livestock in the Scheldt basin. It leads to a significant reduction of agricultural production that finally brings the three basins closer to autotrophy/heterotrophy equilibrium, while a persisting requirement of long-distance importation of meat and milk clearly emphasises the unsustainability of the increasing share of animal proteins in the modern human diet. In the more optimistic hypothesis, nitrate concentrations in most of the drainage network would drop below the threshold of 2.25 mgN/l (10 mgNO3/L) which is often considered a threshold for a good ecological status. The excess of nitrogen over silica (with respect to the requirements of marine diatoms) delivered into the coastal zones would be decreased by a factor from 2 to 5, thus strongly reducing, but not entirely eliminating the potential for marine eutrophication. Despite a lack a short-term realism, this alternative could appears - in the line of the ‘adapting mosaic’ defined by the Millenium Ecosystem Assessement - as an end-point situation to be compared when building future nutrient reduction policies and incentive agricultural measures.

  16. Measuring Risk Aversion Model-Independently

    OpenAIRE

    Maier, Johannes; Rüger, Maximilian

    2010-01-01

    We propose a new method to elicit individuals' risk preferences. Similar to Holt and Laury (2002), we use a simple multiple price-list format. However, our method is based on a general notion of increasing risk, which allows classifying individuals as more or less risk-averse without assuming a specic utility framework. In a laboratory experiment we compare both methods. Each classies individuals almost identically as risk-averse, -neutral, or -seeking. However, classications of individuals a...

  17. Accidental spills at sea--risk, impact, mitigation and the need for co-ordinated post-incident monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirby, Mark F; Law, Robin J

    2010-06-01

    A fully integrated and effective response to an oil or chemical spill at sea must include a well planned and executed post-incident assessment of environmental contamination and damage. While salvage, rescue and clean-up operations are generally well considered, including reviews and exercises, the expertise, resources, networks and logistical planning required to achieve prompt and effective post-spill impact assessment and monitoring are not generally well established. The arrangement and co-ordination of post-incident monitoring and impact assessment need to consider sampling design, biological effects, chemical analysis and collection/interpretation of expert local knowledge. This paper discusses the risks, impacts and mitigation options associated with accidental spills and considers the importance of pre-considered impact assessment and monitoring programmes in the wider response cycle. The PREMIAM (Pollution Response in Emergencies: Marine Impact Assessment and Monitoring; www.premiam.org) project is considered as an example of an improved approach to the planning, co-ordination and conduct of post-incident monitoring. PMID:20381098

  18. Improving cost-effectiveness and mitigating risks of renewable energy requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, James P.

    Policy makers at the federal and state levels of government are debating actions to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on oil as an energy source. Several concerns drive this debate: sharp rises in energy prices, increasing unease about the risks of climate change, energy security, and interest in expanding the domestic renewable energy industry. Renewable energy requirements are frequently proposed to address these concerns, and are currently in place, in various forms, at the federal and state levels of government. These policies specify that a certain portion of the energy supply come from renewable energy sources. This dissertation focuses on a specific proposal, known as 25 X 25, which requires 25% of electricity and motor vehicle transportation fuels supplied to U.S. consumers to come from renewable energy sources, such as wind power and ethanol, by 2025. This dissertation builds on prior energy policy analysis, and more specifically analyses of renewable energy requirements, by assessing the social welfare implications of a 25 x 25 policy and applying new methods of uncertainty analysis to multiple policy options decision makers can use to implement the policy. These methods identify policy options that can improve the cost-effectiveness and reduce the risks of renewable energy requirements. While the dissertation focuses on a specific policy, the research methods and findings are applicable to other renewable energy requirement policies. In the dissertation, I analyze six strategies for implementing a 25 x 25 policy across several hundred scenarios that represent plausible futures for uncertainties in energy markets, such as renewable energy costs, energy demand, and fossil fuel prices. The strategies vary in the availability of resources that qualify towards the policy requirement and the use of a "safety valve" that allows refiners and utilities to pay a constant fee after renewable energy costs reach a predetermined threshold. I test each strategy across the set of scenarios and conclude that an "all-combined" strategy---one that allows greater corn ethanol production and energy efficiency to qualify towards the requirement and includes a safety valve---is the most robust strategy to address future uncertainties in energy markets.

  19. The Belgian Risk Perception Barometer Risk Perception Measuring Instruments Revisited

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aeken, Koen van; Carle, Benny; Hardeman, Frank [SCK-CEN, Mol (Belgium). PISA

    2006-09-15

    The recognition of the societal dimension of risk assessment has been at the cradle of the opinion research on risks. Since risk estimates are not fixed by experts anymore, but are considered to show variation across a diverse population, the people themselves must be asked how they experience the risks. Following the rise in popularity of risk assessment and the recognition of its 'human' dimension, the demand for public opinion surveys on risks has been increasing at a fast pace. Unfortunately, this high demand sees some negative consequences. First, surveys are frequently conducted by people lacking even a minimal knowledge of survey methodology. In this respect, we might think of a journal or a newspaper trying to impress their readers with the definitive public opinion poll about the latest issue in vogue. Second, time pressure causes experienced or trained researchers to lower themselves to 'quick and dirty' work. While methodologically flawed opinion research might not be something to worry about when appearing in the amusement press, concern is due if the results of a survey inspire policy development. Indeed, when public opinion research is conceived as an instrument to support rational, evidence based public policy, the strictest methodological standards should be applied, even if it is clear that scientific research will never substitute political reasoning. This contribution deals with the safeguarding and enhancing of the quality of large scale surveys focusing on risk perception and related issues. This attention is relevant, not only for the reason that methodological standards may be flawed due to the immense popularity of the opinion poll, but also because the results of opinion surveys may have far-reaching policy consequences.

  20. The Belgian Risk Perception Barometer Risk Perception Measuring Instruments Revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The recognition of the societal dimension of risk assessment has been at the cradle of the opinion research on risks. Since risk estimates are not fixed by experts anymore, but are considered to show variation across a diverse population, the people themselves must be asked how they experience the risks. Following the rise in popularity of risk assessment and the recognition of its 'human' dimension, the demand for public opinion surveys on risks has been increasing at a fast pace. Unfortunately, this high demand sees some negative consequences. First, surveys are frequently conducted by people lacking even a minimal knowledge of survey methodology. In this respect, we might think of a journal or a newspaper trying to impress their readers with the definitive public opinion poll about the latest issue in vogue. Second, time pressure causes experienced or trained researchers to lower themselves to 'quick and dirty' work. While methodologically flawed opinion research might not be something to worry about when appearing in the amusement press, concern is due if the results of a survey inspire policy development. Indeed, when public opinion research is conceived as an instrument to support rational, evidence based public policy, the strictest methodological standards should be applied, even if it is clear that scientific research will never substitute political reasoning. This contribution deals with the safeguarding and enhancing of the quality of large scale surveys focusing on risk perception and related issues. This attention is relevant, not only for the reason that methodological standards may be flawed due to the immense popularity of the opinion poll, but also because the results of opinion surveys may have far-reaching policy consequences

  1. Measurement and pricing of risk in insurance markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsanakas, Andreas; Desli, Evangelia

    2005-12-01

    The theory and practice of risk measurement provides a point of intersection between risk management, economic theories of choice under risk, financial economics, and actuarial pricing theory. This article provides a review of these interrelationships, from the perspective of an insurance company seeking to price the risks that it underwrites. We examine three distinct approaches to insurance risk pricing, all being contingent on the concept of risk measures. Risk measures can be interpreted as representations of risk orderings, as well as absolute (monetary) quantifiers of risk. The first approach can be called an "axiomatic" one, whereby the price for risks is calculated according to a functional determined by a set of desirable properties. The price of a risk is directly interpreted as a risk measure and may be induced by an economic theory of price under risk. The second approach consists in contextualizing the considerations of the risk bearer by embedding them in the market where risks are traded. Prices are calculated by equilibrium arguments, where each economic agent's optimization problem follows from the minimization of a risk measure. Finally, in the third approach, weaknesses of the equilibrium approach are addressed by invoking alternative valuation techniques, the leading paradigm among which is arbitrage pricing. Such models move the focus from individual decision takers to abstract market price systems and are thus more parsimonious in the amount of information that they require. In this context, risk measures, instead of characterizing individual agents, are used for determining the set of price systems that would be viable in a market. PMID:16506990

  2. Alkali Silicate Glass Coatings for Mitigating the Risks of Tin Whiskers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hillman, Dave; Wilcoxon, Ross; Lower, Nate; Grossman, Dan

    2015-12-01

    Alkali silicate glass (ASG) coatings were investigated as a possible method for inhibiting tin whisker initiation and growth. The aqueous-based ASG formulations used in this study were deposited with equipment and conditions that are typical of those used to apply conventional conformal coatings. Processes for controlling ASG coating properties were developed, and a number of ASG-based coating combinations were applied to test components with pure tin surfaces. Coatings were applied both in a laboratory environment at Rockwell Collins and in a manufacturing environment at Plasma Ruggedized Solutions. Testing in elevated humidity/temperature environments and subsequent inspection of the test articles identified coating combinations that inhibited tin whisker growth as well as other material combinations that actually accelerated tin whisker growth. None of the coatings evaluated in this study, including conventional acrylic and Parylene conformal coatings, completely prevented the formation of tin whiskers. Two of the coatings were particularly effective at reducing the risks of whisker growth, albeit through different mechanisms. Parylene conformal coating almost, but not completely, eliminated whisker formation, and only a few tin whiskers were found on these surfaces during the study. A composite of ASG and alumina nanoparticles inhibited whisker formation to a lesser degree than Parylene, but did disrupt whisker growth mechanisms so as to inhibit the formation of long, and more dangerous, tin whiskers. Additional testing also demonstrated that the conformal coatings had relatively little effect on the dielectric loss of a stripline test structure operating at frequencies over 30 GHz.

  3. NCCN Oncology Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies White Paper: Recommendations for Stakeholders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Philip E; Dahlman, George; Eng, Kirby; Garg, Rekha; Gottlieb, Scott; Hoffman, James M; Howell, Peyton; Jahanzeb, Mohammad; Johnson, Shirley; Mackler, Emily; Rubino, Mark; Sarokhan, Brenda; Marc Stewart, F; Tyler, Tim; Vose, Julie M; Weinstein, Sharon; Li, Edward C; Demartino, Jessica

    2010-09-01

    REMS are a particularly important issue for oncology and the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN). A disproportionate number of drugs with complex REMS are used in patients with cancer or hematologic disorders. REMS policies and processes within oncology may act as a model for other clinical areas. A breadth of experience and access to a wide knowledge base exists within oncology that will ensure appropriate development and consideration of the practical implications of REMS. NCCN is uniquely positioned to assume a leadership role in this process given its status as the arbiter of high-quality cancer care based on its world-leading institutions and clinicians. Notwithstanding the potential benefits, the successful design, implementation, and analysis of the FDA's recent requirement for REMS for some high-risk drugs and biologics will present significant challenges for stakeholders, including patients, providers, cancer centers, manufacturers, payors, health information technology vendors, and regulatory agencies. To provide guidance to these stakeholders regarding REMS challenges, the NCCN assembled a work group comprised of thought leaders from NCCN Member Institutions and other outside experts. The Work Group identified challenges across the REMS spectrum, including the areas of standardization, development and assessment of REMS programs, medication guides, provider knowledge and impact on prescribing, provider burden and compensation, and incorporation of REMS into clinical practice. PMID:20947724

  4. Alkali Silicate Glass Coatings for Mitigating the Risks of Tin Whiskers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hillman, Dave; Wilcoxon, Ross; Lower, Nate; Grossman, Dan

    2015-09-01

    Alkali silicate glass (ASG) coatings were investigated as a possible method for inhibiting tin whisker initiation and growth. The aqueous-based ASG formulations used in this study were deposited with equipment and conditions that are typical of those used to apply conventional conformal coatings. Processes for controlling ASG coating properties were developed, and a number of ASG-based coating combinations were applied to test components with pure tin surfaces. Coatings were applied both in a laboratory environment at Rockwell Collins and in a manufacturing environment at Plasma Ruggedized Solutions. Testing in elevated humidity/temperature environments and subsequent inspection of the test articles identified coating combinations that inhibited tin whisker growth as well as other material combinations that actually accelerated tin whisker growth. None of the coatings evaluated in this study, including conventional acrylic and Parylene conformal coatings, completely prevented the formation of tin whiskers. Two of the coatings were particularly effective at reducing the risks of whisker growth, albeit through different mechanisms. Parylene conformal coating almost, but not completely, eliminated whisker formation, and only a few tin whiskers were found on these surfaces during the study. A composite of ASG and alumina nanoparticles inhibited whisker formation to a lesser degree than Parylene, but did disrupt whisker growth mechanisms so as to inhibit the formation of long, and more dangerous, tin whiskers. Additional testing also demonstrated that the conformal coatings had relatively little effect on the dielectric loss of a stripline test structure operating at frequencies over 30 GHz.

  5. Mitigating Reputational Risks - A Proposal With A Knowledge-Based Stakeholder Information Leitstand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Stö?lein

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The Internet plays a crucial role in the communication strategy of organizations. However, information is often distributed at the "wrong" time and does not always satisfy the particular requirements of key customers, suppliers, governments, shareholders or financial analysts. Serious mistakes might not only create negative sequela, for example, stakeholders remain unsatisfied, downgrade their opinions about products and companies, and subsequently make 'wrong' decisions. Such mistakes could also have tremendous effects on the primary objectives of an enterprise, e.g., the reputation suffers and subsequently the share price plunges. In this paper, we present how companies can take advantage of actively providing targeted information with a knowledge-based Stakeholder Information Leitstand (information planning and control center. It helps executives stabilize relationships with key customers, journalists, politicians, investors, and assists in promoting trust and enhancing reputation, especially in times of risk situations. We focus on the design phase of the system, and propose that current decision support systems could be enriched with "business content", i.e. predefined situation-oriented and individualized information categories and messages.

  6. WHEN THE DISASTER TREATMENT IN THE HEAD OF EYES: THE EFFORTS OF MITIGATION POLICY AND REDUCTION OF THE DISASTER RISK IN PADANG CITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roni Ekha Putera,

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The disaster inspection a few years recently has been an interesting topic discuss, not only by government but also non-government organization and society. The unsuspected various disaster had opened eyes of all side, how important prevention towards disaster is in the future. The way of thinking in the disaster management prevention at this present time had undergone the change from relief paradigm and respond to contingency planning, vulnerability reduction and disaster risk eventually leads to disaster management more comprehensive. Padang city is as one of the cities located in west Sumatra province as a resort that frequently disturbed by the earthquake and tsunami. Based on notification from volcanical directorat and Mitigation of geology disaster (DVMBG Energy Department and mineral Resources showed that there were 28 areas stated shaking disturbance and tsunami in Indonesia. Padang city is situated at the fire of the ring. Accordingly, this article explained about how is Padang City going to implement The effort of mitigation policy and reduction of disaster risk in minimalizing the resulted impact when the earthquake occurred. Various effort that had ever been done by Padang city among other thing is disaster mitigation such as structural and cultural mitigation. The other effort is empowering disaster prepared people through the disaster prepared group.

  7. The Price of Dynamic Inconsistency for Distortion Risk Measures

    CERN Document Server

    Huang, Pu; Petrik, Marek; Subramanian, Dharmashankar

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate two different frameworks for assessing the risk in a multi-period decision process: a dynamically inconsistent formulation (whereby a single, static risk measure is applied to the entire sequence of future costs), and a dynamically consistent one, obtained by suitably composing one-step risk mappings. We characterize the class of dynamically consistent measures that provide a tight approximation for a given inconsistent measure, and discuss how the approximation factors can be computed. For the case where the consistent measures are given by Average Value-at-Risk, we derive a polynomial-time algorithm for approximating an arbitrary inconsistent distortion measure. We also present exact analytical bounds for the case where the dynamically inconsistent measure is also given by Average Value-at-Risk, and briefly discuss managerial implications in multi-period risk-assessment processes. Our theoretical and algorithmic constructions exploit interesting connections between the study of...

  8. Landslide-dammed lake at Tangjiashan, Sichuan province, China (triggered by the Wenchuan Earthquake, May 12, 2008): Risk assessment, mitigation strategy, and lessons learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, P.; Dang, C.; Zhuang, J.; You, Y.; Chen, X.; Scott, K.M.

    2012-01-01

    Landslides and rock avalanches triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake produced 257 landslide dams, mainly situated along the eastern boundary of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau where rivers descend approximately 3,000 m into the Sichuan Basin. The largest of these dams blocked the Tongkou River (a tributary of the Fujiang River) at Tangjiashan. The blockage, consisting of 2. 04 ?? 10 7 m 3 of landslide debris, impounded a lake with a projected maximum volume of 3. 15 ?? 10 8 m 3, potentially inundating 8. 92 km 2 of terrain. Its creation during the rainy season and the possibility of an uncontrolled release posed a serious, impending threat to at least 1. 3 million people downstream that could add substantially to the total of 69,200 individuals directly killed by the earthquake. Risk assessment of the blockage indicated that it was unlikely to collapse suddenly, and that eventual overtopping could be mitigated by notching the structure in order to create an engineered breach and achieve safe drainage of the lake. In addition to the installation of monitoring and warning instrumentation, for emergency planning we estimated several outburst scenarios equivalent to 20, 25, 33, and 50% of the dam failing suddenly, creating, respectively, 3. 35, 3. 84, 4. 22, and 4. 65 km 2 of flooded area, and overbank water depths of 4. 6, 5. 1, 5. 7, and 6. 2 m, respectively, in Mianyang, the second largest city in Sichuan Province, 48 km downstream from the blockage. Based on these scenarios, recommendations and plans for excavating a sluiceway, draining the lake, and downstream evacuation were proposed and later were implemented successfully, with the blockage breached by overtopping on June 10, less than a month after dam emplacement. The peak discharge of the release only slightly exceeded the flood of record at Mianyang City. No lives were lost, and significant property damage was avoided. Post-breaching evaluation reveals how future similar mitigation can be improved. Although initial breach erosion was slow, later erosion was judged uncontrollably rapid; increased slope of the engineered channel and adoption of a compound, trapezoid-triangular cross-section can be considered, as can other measures to control the rate of breach incision. Evacuees from Mianyang City spent an unnecessarily long time (12 days) in temporary settlements; more precise risk management planning can reduce this time in the future. ?? 2010 Springer-Verlag.

  9. Multivariate risk measures: a constructive approach based on selections

    OpenAIRE

    Cascos, Ignacio; Molchanov, Ilya

    2013-01-01

    Since risky positions in multivariate portfolios can be offset by various choices of capital requirements that depend on the exchange rules and related transaction costs, it is natural to assume that the risk measures of random vectors are set-valued. Furthermore, it is reasonable to include the exchange rules in the argument of the risk measure and so consider risk measures of set-valued portfolios. This situation includes the classical Kabanov's transaction costs model, wh...

  10. 49 CFR 192.935 - What additional preventive and mitigative measures must an operator take?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... STANDARDS Gas Transmission Pipeline Integrity Management § 192.935 What additional preventive and mitigative... implementing additional inspection and maintenance programs. (b) Third party damage and outside force damage..., unstable suspension bridge) is a threat to the integrity of a covered segment, the operator must...

  11. Climate change effects on mitigation measures: The case of extreme wind events and Philippines’ biofuel plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biofuel production has increased dramatically over the past decade, among other to mitigate climate change. However, climate change vulnerability may currently not be sufficiently accounted for in national biofuel strategies, hence neglecting a possible link between mitigation and adaptation to climate change. To the best of our knowledge this potential link has received very little attention in the literature. One example is the Philippines, which is currently implementing an ambitious program of biofuel production. Its aim is to reduce dependency on imported fuel, increase rural employment and incomes, and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. The Philippines is frequently battered by tropical typhoons and from 1975 to 2002 the annual average damage to agriculture was 3.047 billion pesos. We calculate wind damage on biofuel feedstock production, and assess the effect that a future potential increase in tropical cyclone intensity would have on energy security, rural development and climate change mitigation in the Philippines. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to obtain the future expected development of typhoon impacts. Based on the Philippines legislated target of 10% biodiesel blend in gasoline by 2011, simulation of the affected area for each feedstock, and expected biofuel feedstock damage is computed for the Philippine's 80 provinces in 2050, for two different typhoon climate change scenarios. Additional indirect economic effects are assessed in a tentative way. The results suggest a modest decrease in biofuel feedstock productivity at the national level, but with strong local differences that are shown to affect the Philippine's policy goals. In a broader perspective the paper accentuates a so far little described link between climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation. This link may merit further attention by policy makers and development planners in order to ensure that policies are economically sound not only in the short but also medium term.

  12. A Dynamical Approach to Operational Risk Measurement

    OpenAIRE

    Bardoscia, Marco; Bellotti, Roberto

    2012-01-01

    We propose a dynamical model for the estimation of Operational Risk in banking institutions. Operational Risk is the risk that a financial loss occurs as the result of failed processes. Examples of operational losses are the ones generated by internal frauds, human errors or failed transactions. In order to encompass the most heterogeneous set of processes, in our approach the losses of each process are generated by the interplay among random noise, interactions with other p...

  13. Landscape-scale accessibility of livestock to tigers: implications of spatial grain for modeling predation risk to mitigate human–carnivore conflict

    OpenAIRE

    Miller, Jennifer R B; Jhala, Yadvendradev V; Jena, Jyotirmay; Schmitz, Oswald J.

    2015-01-01

    Innovative conservation tools are greatly needed to reduce livelihood losses and wildlife declines resulting from human–carnivore conflict. Spatial risk modeling is an emerging method for assessing the spatial patterns of predator–prey interactions, with applications for mitigating carnivore attacks on livestock. Large carnivores that ambush prey attack and kill over small areas, requiring models at fine spatial grains to predict livestock depredation hot spots. To detect the best resolution ...

  14. An ‘innovation-cycle framework’ of integrated agricultural knowledge system and innovation for improving farmers’climate change adaptation and risk mitigation capacities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rahman, Md Zillur

    2015-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to present a new ‘innovation-cycle’ integrated conceptual framework of ‘TVET-adaptive AKSI’ (TVET: Technical and Vocational Education and Training; AKSI: Agricultural Knowledge System and Innovation). Thus the aim here is to discuss from existing body of literature of how ‘TVET-adaptive AKSI’ can be the ‘Next Frontier of Green Innovation’ and adaptation strategy to improve agricultural-based producers’ understanding of ‘risk perception and mitigation’ (a case ...

  15. A process-based model for the definition of hydrological alert systems in landslide risk mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Floris

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The definition of hydrological alert systems for rainfall-induced landslides is strongly related to a deep knowledge of the geological and geomorphological features of the territory. Climatic conditions, spatial and temporal evolution of the phenomena and characterization of landslide triggering, together with propagation mechanisms, are the key elements to be considered. Critical steps for the development of the systems consist of the identification of the hydrological variable related to landslide triggering and of the minimum rainfall threshold for landslide occurrence.

    In this paper we report the results from a process-based model to define a hydrological alert system for the Val di Maso Landslide, located in the northeastern Italian Alps and included in the Vicenza Province (Veneto region, NE Italy. The instability occurred in November 2010, due to an exceptional rainfall event that hit the Vicenza Province and the entire NE Italy. Up to 500 mm in 3-day cumulated rainfall generated large flood conditions and triggered hundreds of landslides. During the flood, the Soil Protection Division of the Vicenza Province received more than 500 warnings of instability phenomena. The complexity of the event and the high level of risk to infrastructure and private buildings are the main reasons for deepening the specific phenomenon occurred at Val di Maso.

    Empirical and physically-based models have been used to identify the minimum rainfall threshold for the occurrence of instability phenomena in the crown area of Val di Maso landslide, where a retrogressive evolution by multiple rotational slides is expected. Empirical models helped in the identification and in the evaluation of recurrence of critical rainfall events, while physically-based modelling was essential to verify the effects on the slope stability of determined rainfall depths. Empirical relationships between rainfall and landslide consist of the calculation of rainfall Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF curves, which allow one to determine rainfall depth (or intensity as a function of duration for given return periods or probabilities of exceedance (frequencies. Physically-based modelling was performed through coupled seepage and slope stability analyses.

    Combining results from empirical and physically-based modelling, the minimum alert threshold for a reactivation of the phenomenon was found in rainfall cumulated up to 60 days with a return period of 2 yr. These results were used to set up a hydrological alert system based on the calibration of DDF curves which can be used as a sort of abacus to plot in real time rainfall depths and to set increasing levels of alert on the basis of the degree of exceptionality of rainfall.

    The alert system for Val di Maso was successfully tested by the rainfall events that produced displacements which have been recorded by extensometers placed in the crown area after the November 2010 landslide. However, further tests are recommendable to improve the process-based model that led to the implementation of the alert system. To this end, a monitoring system is currently being realized. In the near future, monitoring data will help in testing and improving landslide evolution and alert models.

    The proposed hydrological alert system proves to be effective mainly because it can be applied to different scales of investigation and geological and geomorphological contexts. In fact, it might also be applicable to territorial scale analyses, as showed by the brief example provided in this paper on how the alert system could be used for landslide early warning in the area surrounding Val di Maso. Furthermore, it is easy to set up. The needed components are a rain gauge station, a software that compares rainfall data to rainfall events with different return periods and degree of alert, and a transmission system of the warning levels to authorities.

  16. A process-based model for the definition of hydrological alert systems in landslide risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floris, M.; D'Alpaos, A.; De Agostini, A.; Stevan, G.; Tessari, G.; Genevois, R.

    2012-11-01

    The definition of hydrological alert systems for rainfall-induced landslides is strongly related to a deep knowledge of the geological and geomorphological features of the territory. Climatic conditions, spatial and temporal evolution of the phenomena and characterization of landslide triggering, together with propagation mechanisms, are the key elements to be considered. Critical steps for the development of the systems consist of the identification of the hydrological variable related to landslide triggering and of the minimum rainfall threshold for landslide occurrence. In this paper we report the results from a process-based model to define a hydrological alert system for the Val di Maso Landslide, located in the northeastern Italian Alps and included in the Vicenza Province (Veneto region, NE Italy). The instability occurred in November 2010, due to an exceptional rainfall event that hit the Vicenza Province and the entire NE Italy. Up to 500 mm in 3-day cumulated rainfall generated large flood conditions and triggered hundreds of landslides. During the flood, the Soil Protection Division of the Vicenza Province received more than 500 warnings of instability phenomena. The complexity of the event and the high level of risk to infrastructure and private buildings are the main reasons for deepening the specific phenomenon occurred at Val di Maso. Empirical and physically-based models have been used to identify the minimum rainfall threshold for the occurrence of instability phenomena in the crown area of Val di Maso landslide, where a retrogressive evolution by multiple rotational slides is expected. Empirical models helped in the identification and in the evaluation of recurrence of critical rainfall events, while physically-based modelling was essential to verify the effects on the slope stability of determined rainfall depths. Empirical relationships between rainfall and landslide consist of the calculation of rainfall Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves, which allow one to determine rainfall depth (or intensity) as a function of duration for given return periods or probabilities of exceedance (frequencies). Physically-based modelling was performed through coupled seepage and slope stability analyses. Combining results from empirical and physically-based modelling, the minimum alert threshold for a reactivation of the phenomenon was found in rainfall cumulated up to 60 days with a return period of 2 yr. These results were used to set up a hydrological alert system based on the calibration of DDF curves which can be used as a sort of abacus to plot in real time rainfall depths and to set increasing levels of alert on the basis of the degree of exceptionality of rainfall. The alert system for Val di Maso was successfully tested by the rainfall events that produced displacements which have been recorded by extensometers placed in the crown area after the November 2010 landslide. However, further tests are recommendable to improve the process-based model that led to the implementation of the alert system. To this end, a monitoring system is currently being realized. In the near future, monitoring data will help in testing and improving landslide evolution and alert models. The proposed hydrological alert system proves to be effective mainly because it can be applied to different scales of investigation and geological and geomorphological contexts. In fact, it might also be applicable to territorial scale analyses, as showed by the brief example provided in this paper on how the alert system could be used for landslide early warning in the area surrounding Val di Maso. Furthermore, it is easy to set up. The needed components are a rain gauge station, a software that compares rainfall data to rainfall events with different return periods and degree of alert, and a transmission system of the warning levels to authorities.

  17. Reward-risk efficiency in proportional reinsurance with different risk measures

    OpenAIRE

    Pressacco, Flavio; Ziani, Laura

    2011-01-01

    We have studied, in particular under normality of the implied random variables, the connections between different measures of risk such as the standard deviation, the W-ruin probability and the p-V@R. We discuss conditions granting the equivalence of these measures with respect to risk preference relations and the equivalence of dominance and efficiency of risk-reward criteria involving these measures. Then more specifically we applied these concepts to rigorously face the problem of finding ...

  18. Construction and Measurements of an Improved Vacuum-Swing-Adsorption Radon-Mitigation System

    CERN Document Server

    Street, J; Dunagan, C; Loose, X; Schnee, R W; Stark, M; Sundarnath, K; Tronstad, D

    2015-01-01

    In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto detector surfaces, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology. An improved vacuum-swing-adsorption radon mitigation system and cleanroom build upon a previous design implemented at Syracuse University that achieved radon levels of $\\sim$0.2$\\,$Bq$\\,$m$^{-3}$. This improved system will employ a better pump and larger carbon beds feeding a redesigned cleanroom with an internal HVAC unit and aged water for humidification. With the rebuilt (original) radon mitigation system, the new low-radon cleanroom has already achieved a $>$$\\,$300$\\times$ reduction from an input activity of $58.6\\pm0.7$$\\,$Bq$\\,$m$^{-3}$ to a cleanroom activity of $0.13\\pm0.06$$\\,$Bq$\\,$m$^{-3}$.

  19. Construction and measurements of an improved vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Street, J.; Bunker, R.; Dunagan, C.; Loose, X.; Schnee, R. W.; Stark, M.; Sundarnath, K.; Tronstad, D.

    2015-08-01

    In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto detector surfaces, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology. An improved vacuum-swing-adsorption radon mitigation system and cleanroom build upon a previous design implemented at Syracuse University that achieved radon levels of ˜0.2 Bq m-3. This improved system will employ a better pump and larger carbon beds feeding a redesigned cleanroom with an internal HVAC unit and aged water for humidification. With the rebuilt (original) radon mitigation system, the new low-radon cleanroom has already achieved a > 300× reduction from an input activity of 58.6 ± 0.7 Bq m-3 to a cleanroom activity of 0.13 ± 0.06 Bq m-3.

  20. Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    'Risk of damage' and 'exposure risk' are considered as components of the radiation risk. The influence of the 'exposure risk' on type and extent of radiation protection measurements is discussed with regard to different measuring tasks. Basing upon measuring results concerning the frequency of certain external and internal occupational exposures in the GDR, it has been shown that only a small fraction of the monitored persons are subjected to a high 'exposure risk'. As a consequence the following recommendations are given for discussion: (a) occupationally exposed persons with small 'exposure risk' should be monitored using only a long-term dosimeter (for instance a thermoluminescence dosimeter), (b) in the case of internal exposure the surface and, if necessary, air contamination should be controlled so strictly that routine measurements of internal contamination need not be performed. (author)

  1. Dynamic portfolio managment based on complex quantile risk measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina V. Tulupova

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on effectiveness evaluation combined measures of financial risks, which are convex combinations of measures VaR, CVaR and their analogues for the right distribution tail functions of a portfolio returns.

  2. Dermatologic radiotherapy and thyroid cancer. Dose measurements and risk quantification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldschmidt, H.; Gorson, R.O.; Lassen, M.

    1983-05-01

    Thyroid doses for various dermatologic radiation techniques were measured with thermoluminescent dosimeters and ionization rate meters in an Alderson-Rando anthropomorphic phantom. The effects of changes in radiation quality and of the use or nonuse of treatment cones and thyroid shields were evaluated in detail. The results indicate that the potential risk of radiogenic thyroid cancer is very small when proper radiation protection measures are used. The probability of radiogenic thyroid cancer developing and the potential mortality risk were assessed quantitatively for each measurement. The quantification of radiation risks allows comparisons with risks of other therapeutic modalities and the common hazards of daily life.

  3. A Note on Measuring Risk Aversion

    OpenAIRE

    Maier, Johannes; Rüger, Maximilian

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we propose a new method to elicit the intensity of individual's risk preferences. Our method uses a simple multiple price-list format and is based on the increasing risk definitions of Rothschild and Stiglitz (1970, 1971). We are thus able to classify individuals as more or less risk-averse without assuming an expected utility framework. In a lab experiment we directly compare our method to the well-known method of Holt and Laury (2002) and find that our approach yields higher e...

  4. Using high-resolution phosphorus data to investigate mitigation measures in headwater river catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Campbell

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study reports the use of high resolution water quality monitoring to assess the influence of changes in landuse management on total phosphorus (TP transfers in two 5 km2 agricultural sub-catchments. Specifically, the work investigates the "wicked problem" of agricultural soil P management and subsequent diffuse transfers at high river flows over a five year timescale. The work also investigates the phenomenon of low flow P pollution from septic tank systems (STS and mitigation efforts – here termed the "filthy issue" of rural catchment management. Results showed an inconsistent response to soil P management over five years with one catchment showing a convergence to optimum P concentrations and the other an overall increase. Both catchments indicated an overall increase in P concentration in defined high flow ranges. Low flow P concentration showed little change or higher P concentrations in defined low flow ranges despite replacement of defective systems and this is possibly due to a number of confounding reasons including increased housing densities due to new-builds. The work indicates fractured responses to catchment management advice and mitigation and that the short to medium term may be an insufficient time to expect the full implementation of policies (here defined as convergence to optimum soil P concentration and mitigation of STS and also to gauge their effectiveness.

  5. Using high-resolution phosphorus data to investigate mitigation measures in headwater river catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, J. M.; Jordan, P.; Arnscheidt, J.

    2015-01-01

    This study reports the use of high-resolution water quality monitoring to assess the influence of changes in land use management on total phosphorus (TP) transfers in two 5 km2 agricultural sub-catchments. Specifically, the work investigates the issue of agricultural soil P management and subsequent diffuse transfers at high river flows over a 5-year timescale. The work also investigates the phenomenon of low flow P pollution from septic tank systems (STSs) and mitigation efforts - a key concern for catchment management. Results showed an inconsistent response to soil P management over 5 years with one catchment showing a convergence to optimum P concentrations and the other an overall increase. Both catchments indicated an overall increase in P concentration in defined high flow ranges. Low flow P concentration showed little change or higher P concentrations in defined low flow ranges despite replacement of defective systems and this is possibly due to a number of confounding reasons including increased housing densities due to new-builds. The work indicates fractured responses to catchment management advice and mitigation and that the short to medium term may be an insufficient time to expect the full implementation of policies (here defined as convergence to optimum soil P concentration and mitigation of STSs) and also to gauge their effectiveness.

  6. Measures of risk importance and their applications. [PWR; BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vesely, W.E.; Davis, T.C.; Denning, R.S.; Saltos, N.

    1983-07-01

    This work is part of a project being conducted for the Division of Risk Analysis (DRA) of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The objectives of the project are to evaluate the importances of containment, the different safety functions, and other various contributers as assessed in probabilistic risk analyses and to identify generic conclusions regarding the importances. Effective display of the importances is an important part of these objectives. To address these objectives, measures of risk importance need to be first identified and then they need to be evaluated for the different risk analyses which have been performed. This report describes the risk importance measures that were defined and were applied to the risk analyses which were performed as part of the Reactor Safety Study Methodology Applications Program (RSSMAP). The risk importance measures defined in this report measure the importance of features not only with regard to risk reduction but also with regard to reliability assurance, or risk maintenance. The goal of this report is not to identify new mathematical formulas for risk importance but to show how importance measures can be interpreted and can be applied.

  7. Polyhedral Risk Measures and Lagrangian Relaxation in Electricity Portfolio Optimization

    OpenAIRE

    Eichhorn, Andreas; Römisch, Werner; Wegner, Isabel

    2005-01-01

    We present a multistage stochastic programming model for mean-risk optimization of electricity portfolios containing physical components and energy derivative products. Stochasticity enters the model via the uncertain (time-dependent) prices and electricity demand. The objective is to maximize the expected overall revenue and, simultaneously, to minimize a multiperiod risk measure, i.e., a risk measure that takes into account the intermediate time cash values. We compare the effect of differe...

  8. Measures of Association Applied to Operational Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Salini, Silvia

    2010-01-01

    Association rules are a basic analysis tools for unstructured data such as accident reports, call centres recordings and CRM logs. Such tools are commonly used in basket analysis of shopping carts for identifying patterns in consumer behaviour. In this chapter we show how association rules are used to analyze unstructured operational risk data in order to provide risk assessments and diagnostic insights. We will also present a new graphical display of association rules that permits effective ...

  9. Review of Offshore Wind Farm Impact Monitoring and Mitigation with Regard to Marine Mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verfuss, Ursula K; Sparling, Carol E; Arnot, Charlie; Judd, Adrian; Coyle, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Monitoring and mitigation reports from 19 UK and 9 other European Union (EU) offshore wind farm (OWF) developments were reviewed, providing a synthesis of the evidence associated with the observed environmental impact on marine mammals. UK licensing conditions were largely concerned with mitigation measures reducing the risk of physical and auditory injury from pile driving. At the other EU sites, impact monitoring was conducted along with mitigation measures. Noise-mitigation measures were developed and tested in UK and German waters in German government-financed projects. We highlight some of the review's findings and lessons learned with regard to noise impact on marine mammals. PMID:26611084

  10. GHG (Greenhouse Gases) emission inventory and mitigation measures for public district heating plants in the Republic of Serbia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As a non-Annex I Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol signatory, the Republic of Serbia has committed to develop GHG (Greenhouse Gases) emission inventory and prepare comprehensive program of mitigation measures at national level. The paper presents results of 2000–2008 GHG emission inventory assembled for PDH (Public District Heating) sub-sector in accordance with revised IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Tier 1 methodology. Evaluation of proposed mitigation measures was performed based on 2012 and 2015 GHG emission projections, obtained for basic and four alternative scenarios, all characterized by the same energy demand but with different fuel mix used. The first alternative scenario addresses GHG emissions in case that solid fuel is substituted by natural gas. The second alternative scenario represents a sub-scenario of the first alternative scenario, with additional substitution of liquid fuel with locally available biomass. Third alternative scenario addresses emissions resulting from complete fuel switch from natural gas to liquid fuel oil, while the final alternative scenario considers the case when natural gas is the only energy resource used. GHG emission trends in the period until 2015, examined in case of previously mentioned basic and four alternative scenarios, point out to the positive impact of fuel switch on GHG emission reduction and pathways for future implementation of proposed mitigation measures. Results obtained clearly quantified assumption that fuel substitution by locally available biomass could solve environmental problems, overcome problems associated with high prices of imported fuels, improve energy supply security and increase local employment

  11. The ESA Space Debris Mitigation Handbook 2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klinkrad, H.; Beltrami, P.; Hauptmann, S.; Martin, C.; Sdunnus, H.; Stokes, H.; Walker, R.; Wilkinson, J.

    2004-01-01

    The ESA Space Debris Mitigation Handbook 2002 was jointly produced by an industrial consortium and ESA, under an ESA contract. The Handbook is a non-regulatory, self-standing document, providing technical information in support of European debris mitigation standards. The necessity of debris mitigation is illustrated in the context of historic launch activities and operational practices, which led to the current debris environment, with corresponding collision flux levels. Based on detailed population evolution models, this initial population is analyzed with respect to its growth and stability under different traffic assumptions. The implementation of debris mitigation measures, in particular the de-orbiting of spacecraft and upper stages, is shown to reduce the debris growth to an acceptable level within a few decades. The risk on ground due to re-entering space objects, its assessment, and its control is also analyzed. For on-orbit systems, collision risk reduction by avoidance manoeuvres, and passive protection by shielding is outlined. ESA's Handbook also compares recommended debris mitigation and risk reduction practices proposed by several other space agencies. The Handbook will be available at the begin of 2003.

  12. Some design measures and concepts for the prevention and mitigation of severe accidents in the Indian advanced heavy water reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorium utilisation has been an important aspect of the Indian Nuclear Power Programme. The strategy of realising large scale power generation from thorium has been clearly laid out right since the inception of the Indian Nuclear Power Programme. As a part of this strategy an Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR) is being developed. This reactor would generate most of the energy from U-233, bred in-situ from thorium. The paper describes the reactor configuration and passive safety features to remove core heat and also to ensure integrity of containment during accident scenarios. Some design measures and concepts for the prevention and mitigation of severe accidents in AHWR are described

  13. Investigation of radon entry and effectiveness of mitigation measures in seven houses in New Jersey: Midproject report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A detailed radon mitigation study is in progress in 14 homes in the New Jersey Piedmont area. The principal goals are the refinement of diagnostic measurements for selection and implementation of mitigation systems, and the reduction of radon concentrations to acceptable levels inside the study houses. Monitoring stations were installed in each home in October, 1986. Instrumented measurements included: basement and upstairs radon; differential pressures across the basement/subslag, basement/upstairs and basement/outdoor interfaces; temperatures at basement, upstairs and outdoor locations; and central air handler usage. A weather station was located at one house, monitoring wind speed and direction; barometric pressure; precipitation; soil temperature; and outdoor temperature and relative humidity. A time-averaged value of all of the above parameters was recorded every 30 min. Several additional parameters were monitored on an intermittent basis in all or selected homes. These include multizone air infiltration rates which have been measured in all homes using passive perfluorocarbon tracers (PFT) and in two homes using a constant concentration tracer gas system (CCTG). Total radon progeny, soil gas radon concentration and permeability characteristics, and gamma radiation levels were also monitored periodically in all study homes. 10 refs., 53 figs

  14. Vigilant measures of risk and the demand for contingent claims

    OpenAIRE

    Ghossoub, Mario

    2012-01-01

    I examine a class of utility maximization problems with a not necessarily lawinvariant utility, and with a not necessarily law-invariant risk measure constraint. The objective function is an integral of some function U with respect to some probability measure P, and the constraint set contains some risk measure constraint which is not necessarily P-law-invariant. This introduces some heterogeneity in the perception of uncertainty. The primitive U is a function of some given underlying random ...

  15. Measuring excessive risk-taking in banking.

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Podpiera, Ji?í; Weill, L.

    2010-01-01

    Ro?. 60, ?. 4 (2010), s. 294-306. ISSN 0015-1920 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : banking sector * risk -taking * portfolio Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.278, year: 2010 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1189_str_294_306_-_weill-podpiera.pdf

  16. Comparing sex offender risk assessment measures on a UK sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Leam A; Browne, Kevin D; Stringer, Ian

    2004-02-01

    The purpose of this study on 139 sex offenders was to consider the application of six measures of risk: Static-99, SACJ-Min (Structured Anchored Clinical Judgment Scale-Minimum), RRASOR (Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offence Recidivism), Risk Matrix 2000-Sexual/Violent, and SVR-20 (Sexual Violence Risk-20) and to compare risk assessments conducted by a Regional Secure Unit (RSU) and the Probation Service. Levels of risk for the RSU sample ranged from 1% to 42% low risk to 1% to 66% high risk compared with the Probation sample of 8% to 43% low risk to 4% to 70% high risk. Offenders with adult victims obtained significantly higher scores using the RM2000/S and SACJ-Min than did those with child victims who obtained significantly higher scores on the RRASOR. Sex offenders referred to a RSU scored significantly higher on RRASOR and RM2000/S than did sex offenders supervised by the Probation Service. Forensic practitioners may be better served if risk measures assess specific subcategories of sexual offenders. PMID:14969113

  17. Spray drift of pesticides and stream macroinvertebrates: Experimental evidence of impacts and effectiveness of mitigation measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maltby, Lorraine [Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN (United Kingdom)], E-mail: l.maltby@sheffield.ac.uk; Hills, Louise [Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN (United Kingdom)

    2008-12-15

    Impoverished stream communities in agricultural landscapes have been associated with pesticide contamination, but conclusive evidence of causality is rare. We address this deficiency by adopting an experimental approach to investigate the effects of the insecticides cypermethrin and chlorpyrifos on benthic macroinvertebrates. Three treatments were established and a combination of biomarker, bioassay and biomonitoring approaches was employed to investigate, individual, population and community-level effects. Animals deployed during pesticide application had altered enzyme activity, depressed feeding rate and reduced survival, but these effects were only observed where pesticide was sprayed to the stream edge. There were no clear pesticide-related effects on macroinvertebrate community structure or on the population densities of individual species. Hence, short-term pesticide exposure did cause individual-level effects in stream macroinvertebrates, but these were not translated to effects at the population or community-level and were effectively mitigated by the adoption of a no-spray buffer zone. - Pulsed pesticide exposures via spray drift adversely affected stream invertebrates but did not cause population or community-level effects and were mitigated by no-spray buffer zones.

  18. Spray drift of pesticides and stream macroinvertebrates: Experimental evidence of impacts and effectiveness of mitigation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Impoverished stream communities in agricultural landscapes have been associated with pesticide contamination, but conclusive evidence of causality is rare. We address this deficiency by adopting an experimental approach to investigate the effects of the insecticides cypermethrin and chlorpyrifos on benthic macroinvertebrates. Three treatments were established and a combination of biomarker, bioassay and biomonitoring approaches was employed to investigate, individual, population and community-level effects. Animals deployed during pesticide application had altered enzyme activity, depressed feeding rate and reduced survival, but these effects were only observed where pesticide was sprayed to the stream edge. There were no clear pesticide-related effects on macroinvertebrate community structure or on the population densities of individual species. Hence, short-term pesticide exposure did cause individual-level effects in stream macroinvertebrates, but these were not translated to effects at the population or community-level and were effectively mitigated by the adoption of a no-spray buffer zone. - Pulsed pesticide exposures via spray drift adversely affected stream invertebrates but did not cause population or community-level effects and were mitigated by no-spray buffer zones

  19. Impact and effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies on the insurability of nanomaterial production: evidences from industrial case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamaschi, Enrico; Murphy, Finbarr; Poland, Craig A; Mullins, Martin; Costa, Anna L; McAlea, Eamonn; Tran, Lang; Tofail, Syed A M

    2015-11-01

    Workers involved in producing nanomaterials or using nanomaterials in manufacturing plants are likely to have earlier and higher exposure to manufactured/engineered nanomaterials (ENM) than the general population. This is because both the volume handled and the probability of the effluence of 'free' nanoparticles from the handled volume are much higher during a production process than at any other stage in the lifecycle of nanomaterials and nanotechnology-enabled products. Risk assessment (RA) techniques using control banding (CB) as a framework for risk transfer represents a robust theory but further progress on implementing the model is required so that risk can be transferred to insurance companies. Following a review of RA in general and hazard measurement in particular, we subject a Structural Alert Scheme methodology to three industrial case studies using ZrO2 , TiO2 , and multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNT). The materials are tested in a pristine state and in a remediated (coated) state, and the respective emission and hazard rates are tested alongside the material performance as originally designed. To our knowledge, this is the first such implementation of a CB RA in conjunction with an ENM performance test and offers both manufacturers and underwriters an insight into future applications. WIREs Nanomed Nanobiotechnol 2015, 7:839-855. doi: 10.1002/wnan.1340 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. PMID:25808636

  20. A Non-Gaussian Approach to Risk Measures

    CERN Document Server

    Bormetti, G; Montagna, G; Nicrosini, O

    2006-01-01

    Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modeling the power-law tails of the returns distribution in terms of a Student-t distribution. Non-Gaussian closed-form solutions for Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall are obtained and standard formulae known in the literature under the normality assumption are recovered as a special case. The implications of the approach for risk management are demonstrated through an empirical analysis of financial time series from the Italian stock market and in comparison with the results of the most widely used procedures of quantitative finance. Particular attention is paid to quantify the size of the errors affecting the market risk measures obtained according to different methodologies, by employing a bootstrap technique.

  1. A non-Gaussian approach to risk measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bormetti, Giacomo; Cisana, Enrica; Montagna, Guido; Nicrosini, Oreste

    2007-03-01

    Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modelling the power-law tails of the returns distribution in terms of a Student- t distribution. Non-Gaussian closed-form solutions for value-at-risk and expected shortfall are obtained and standard formulae known in the literature under the normality assumption are recovered as a special case. The implications of the approach for risk management are demonstrated through an empirical analysis of financial time series from the Italian stock market and in comparison with the results of the most widely used procedures of quantitative finance. Particular attention is paid to quantify the size of the errors affecting the market risk measures obtained according to different methodologies, by employing a bootstrap technique.

  2. Design measures for prevention and mitigation of severe accidents at advanced water cooled reactors. Proceedings of a technical committee meeting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Over 8500 reactor-years of operating experience have been accumulated with the current nuclear energy systems. New generations of nuclear power plants are being developed, building upon this background of experience. During the last decade, requirements for equipment specifically intended to minimize releases of radioactive material to the environment in the event of a core melt accident have been introduced, and designs for new plants include measures for preventing and mitigating a range of severe accident scenarios. The IAEA Technical Committee Meeting on Impact of Severe Accidents on Plant Design and Layout of Advanced Water Cooled Reactors was jointly organized by the Department of Nuclear Energy and the Department of Nuclear Safety to review measures which are being incorporated into advanced water cooled reactor designs for preventing and mitigating severe accidents, the status of experimental and analytical investigations of severe accident phenomena and challenges which support design decisions and accident management procedures, and to understand the impact of explicitly addressing severe accidents on the cost of nuclear power plants. This publication is intended to provide an objective source of information on this topic. It includes 14 papers presented at the Technical Committee meeting held in Vienna between 21-25 October 1996. It also includes a Summary and Findings of the Working Groups. The papers were grouped in three sections. A separate abstract was prepared for each paper

  3. Measuring risk aversion with lists: A new bias

    OpenAIRE

    Bosch-Dom?nech, Antoni; Silvestre, Joaquim

    2012-01-01

    Various experimental procedures aimed at measuring individual risk aversion involve a list of pairs of alternative prospects. We first study the widely used method by Holt and Laury (2002), for which we find that the removal of some items from the lists yields a systematic decrease in risk aversion and scrambles the ranking of individuals by risk aversion. This bias, that we call embedding bias, is quite distinct from other confounds that have been previously observed in the use of the Holt a...

  4. The Midweight Method to Measure Attitudes towards Risk and Ambiguity

    OpenAIRE

    Kuilen, G. van de; Wakker, P.P.

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces a parameter-free method for measuring the weighting functions of prospect theory and rank-dependent utility. These weighting functions capture risk attitudes, subjective beliefs, and ambiguity attitudes. Our method, called the midweight method, is based on a convenient way to obtain midpoints in the weighting function scale. It can be used both for risk (known probabilities) and for uncertainty (unknown probabilities). The resulting integrated treatment of risk and uncer...

  5. Distortion risk measures, ambiguity aversion and optimal effort

    OpenAIRE

    Robert, Christian; Thérond, Pierre-Emmanuel

    2014-01-01

    We consider the class of concave distortion risk measures to study how choice is influenced by the decision-maker's attitude to risk and provide comparative static results. We also assume ambiguity about the probability distribution of the risk and consider a framework à la Klibanoff, Marinacci and Mukerji (2005) to study the value of information that resolves ambiguity. We show that this value increases with greater ambiguity, with greater ambiguity aversion, and in some cases with greater r...

  6. Construction and measurements of a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system

    CERN Document Server

    Schnee, R W; Ghulam, G; Jardin, D; Kos, M; Tenney, A S

    2014-01-01

    Long-lived alpha and beta emitters in the $^{222}$Rn decay chain on (and near) detector surfaces may be the limiting background in many experiments attempting to detect dark matter or neutrinoless double-beta decay, and in screening detectors. In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto the wires of the BetaCage during its assembly, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at Syracuse University using a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system. The radon filter shows ~20$\\times$ reduction at its output, from 7.47$\\pm$0.56 to 0.37$\\pm$0.12 Bq/m$^3$, and the cleanroom radon activity meets project requirements, with a lowest achieved value consistent with that of the filter, and levels consistently < 2 Bq/m$^3$.

  7. NITRATE TOXICITY IN GROUNDWATER: ITS CLINICAL MANIFESTATIONS, PREVENTIVE MEASURES AND MITIGATION STRATEGIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raaz K. Maheshwari

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater pollution has become a drastic problem principally because of nature and wide spread use of modern chemicals viz. pesticides and fertilizers. Excessive application of fertilizers as well as organic wastes and sewage has been implicated in the nitrogen pollution of groundwater. Therefore, the issue of rising nitrate concentration in groundwater has become a subject of extensive research in India and Rajasthan in particular. In natural water, nitrate ((NO3- N is usually 100ppm and in organic matters (amine and /or amides resulting in the production of nitrosamines (carcinogens. Number of cases (human and livestock, suffering from gastric cancer have been observed. Reverse osmosis (RO process has great potential in the mitigation of nitrate ion containing waters. Generally, the presence of particular substances may affect the removal of specific ions. The presence of di-hydrogen phosphate ions (DHP-ions in the feed solution enhances the nitrate removal efficiency of the polyamide RO membrane. In this present research work, a Flmtec TW30, polyamide thin-film composite, RO membrane was used for nitrate removal through RO set up. The rejection of individual nitrate was found to be around 76%. After addition of KH2¬PO4 to the feed containing nitrate ions the rejection was improved up to 84. This high level of increment in rejection of nitrate ion indicates the possible usage of KH2¬PO4 in RO for nitrate removal. This fact of removal is due to the K+ ions binding to the electronic lone-pairs of polyamide membrane holding di-hydrogen phosphate ions. This establishes a negative layer on the surface of the membrane. The diffusion of nitrate through the membrane is diminished by the formed layer. Present manuscript delineates clinical manifestations of nitrate toxicity and mitigation of nitrate ion by means of state-of-the-art reverse osmosis technology.

  8. CO{sub 2}-mitigation measures through reduction of fossil fuel burning in power utilities. Which road to go?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaupp, A. [Energetica International Inc., Suva (Fiji)

    1996-12-31

    Five conditions, at minimum, should be examined in the comparative analysis of CO{sub 2}-mitigation options for the power sector. Under the continuing constraint of scarce financial resources for any private or public investment in the power sector, the following combination of requirements characterise a successful CO{sub 2}-mitigation project: (1) Financial attractiveness for private or public investors. (2) Low, or even negative, long range marginal costs per ton of `CO{sub 2} saved`. (3) High impact on CO{sub 2}-mitigation, which indicates a large market potential for the measure. (4) The number of individual investments required to achieve the impact is relatively small. In other words, logistical difficulties in project implementation are minimised. (5) The projects are `socially fair` and have minimal negative impact on any segment of the society. This paper deals with options to reduce carbonaceous fuel burning in the power sector. Part I explains how projects should be selected and classified. Part II describes the technical options. Since reduction of carbonaceous fuel burning may be achieved through Demand Side Management (DSM) and Supply Side Management (SSM) both are treated. Within the context of this paper SSM does not mean to expand power supply as demand grows. It means to economically generate and distribute power as efficiently as possible. In too many instances DSM has degenerated into efficient lighting programs and utility managed incentives and rebate programs. To what extent this is a desirable situation for utilities in Developing Countries that face totally different problems as their counterparts in highly industrialised countries remains to be seen. Which road to go is the topic of this paper.

  9. Bank Risk Measurement: A Critical Evaluation at a European Bank

    OpenAIRE

    Gunnar Wahlström

    2013-01-01

    This article assesses bank management’s perspective on the use and effectiveness of the risk measurement system under Basel II that setcapital requirements for banks. These requirements encouraged the use of risk measurement. Semi-structured interviews with various bank managers at Viking Bank (a fictitious name) provide the empirical data for this research. These interviews were conducted after the global financial crisis that led, among other events, to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. Vi...

  10. Central limit theorems for law-invariant coherent risk measures

    OpenAIRE

    Belomestny, Denis; Krätschmer, Volker

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we study the asymptotic properties of the canonical plug-in estimates for law-invariant coherent risk measures. Under rather mild conditions not relying on the explicit representation of the risk measure under consideration, we first prove a central limit theorem for independent identically distributed data and then extend it to the case of weakly dependent ones. Finally, a number of illustrating examples is presented.

  11. Mitigation Action Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-02-01

    This Mitigation Action Plan (MAP) focuses on mitigation commitments stated in the Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (SEIS) and the Record of Decision (ROD) for the Naval Petroleum Reserve No. 1 (NPR-1). Specific commitments and mitigation implementation actions are listed in Appendix A-Mitigation Actions, and form the central focus of this MAP. They will be updated as needed to allow for organizational, regulatory, or policy changes. It is the intent of DOE to comply with all applicable federal, state, and local environmental, safety, and health laws and regulations. Eighty-six specific commitments were identified in the SEIS and associated ROD which pertain to continued operation of NPR-1 with petroleum production at the Maximum Efficient Rate (MER). The mitigation measures proposed are expected to reduce impacts as much as feasible, however, as experience is gained in actual implementation of these measures, some changes may be warranted.

  12. Review of selected state-of-the-art applications of diagnostic measurements for radon-mitigation planning. Report for April 1986-June 1987

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Since late-1984, EPA's AEERL has supported a program to develop and demonstrate radon-mitigation techniques for single-family detached dwellings. As part of the program, projects have been started, directed at developing and demonstrating the use of diagnostic measurements in all phases of the radon-mitigation process. Diagnostic measurements are used to assess: (1) the radon sources strengths, variability, and locations; and, (2) radon transport to the house and its entry and distribution in the house as influenced by environmental, house characteristics, and occupancy factors. The diagnostic measurements reported include: (1) soil-gas grab sampling; (2) communication (air flow or pressure-field extension) tests; (3) whole house infiltration; (4) differential pressure, (5) gamma radiation; and, (6) radon flux. The paper concludes that the above selected diagnostic measurements were especially useful in characterizing houses with indoor radon problems attributable to soil-gas-borne radon that may be amenable to mitigation through the use of subslab ventilation

  13. Measuring quality of life: risks and benefits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schipper, H; Levitt, M

    1985-10-01

    Quality of life research is an emerging science of particular relevance to clinical cancer research. The development and utilization of valid and reliable quality of life measures as outcome parameters may profoundly alter the clinical trials process. Such measures, contrary to prevailing opinion, may be as accurate and precise as conventional measures, but considerably more relevant to the trials process. However, lack of rigor in the evaluation of such indices and uncritical interpretation of results may seriously compromise the credibility of the concept. This overview of the current status of quality of life research is designed to provide a perspective from which to evaluate ongoing development. PMID:3899354

  14. The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the motivational density, to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion

  15. The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, P. J.

    2013-09-01

    A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the "motivational density", to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion.

  16. Measurement of total risk of spontaneous abortion: the virtue of conditional risk estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Modvig, J; Schmidt, L; Damsgaard, M T

    1990-01-01

    The concepts, methods, and problems of measuring spontaneous abortion risk are reviewed. The problems touched on include the process of pregnancy verification, the changes in risk by gestational age and maternal age, and the presence of induced abortions. Methods used in studies of spontaneous abortion risk include biochemical assays as well as life table technique, although the latter appears in two different forms. The consequences of using either of these are discussed. It is concluded that n...

  17. Measuring risk preferences in rural Ethiopia: Risk tolerance and exogenous income proxies

    OpenAIRE

    Vieider, Ferdinand M.; Beyene, Abebe; Bluffstone, Randall; Dissanayake, Sahan; Gebreegziabher, Zenebe; Martinsson, Peter; Mekonnen, Alemu

    2014-01-01

    Risk aversion has generally been found to decrease in income or wealth. This may lead one to expect that poor countries will be more risk averse than rich countries. Recent comparative findings with students, however, suggest the opposite, giving rise to a riskincome paradox. We test this paradox by measuring the risk preferences of over 500 household heads spread over the highlands of Ethiopia. We do so using certainty equivalents, which have rarely been used in developing countries, but per...

  18. Using fine-scale fuel measurements to assess wildland fuels, potential fire behavior and hazard mitigation treatments in the southeastern USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The inherent spatial and temporal heterogeneity of fuelbeds in forests of the southeastern United States may require fine scale fuel measurements for providing reliable fire hazard and fuel treatment effectiveness estimates. In a series of five papers, an intensive, fine scale fuel inventory from the Savanna River Site in the southeastern United States is used for building fuelbeds and mapping fire behavior potential, evaluating fuel treatment options for effectiveness, and providing a comparative analysis of landscape modeled fire behavior using three different data sources including the Fuel Characteristic Classification System, LANDFIRE, and the Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment. The research demonstrates that fine scale fuel measurements associated with fuel inventories repeated over time can be used to assess broad scale wildland fire potential and hazard mitigation treatment effectiveness in the southeastern USA and similar fire prone regions. Additional investigations will be needed to modify and improve these processes and capture the true potential of these fine scale data sets for fire and fuel management planning.

  19. Marel´s expansions in Vietnam: maximizing the returns and mitigating the risks : can Export Credit Agencies help?

    OpenAIRE

    Dinh, Trung Quang, 1983-

    2012-01-01

    When private companies engage in cross border trade and/or investments in emerging market economies they are faced with risks that are different from risks in domestic markets. Emerging markets can offer opportunities for high returns, but at the same time the risks, including both commercial and non-commercial risks, can be high. Those risks need to be managed. Many private companies in developed economies and their business partners in emerging markets, including Vietnam, do not seem to be ...

  20. Landscape-scale accessibility of livestock to tigers: implications of spatial grain for modeling predation risk to mitigate human-carnivore conflict.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Jennifer R B; Jhala, Yadvendradev V; Jena, Jyotirmay; Schmitz, Oswald J

    2015-03-01

    Innovative conservation tools are greatly needed to reduce livelihood losses and wildlife declines resulting from human-carnivore conflict. Spatial risk modeling is an emerging method for assessing the spatial patterns of predator-prey interactions, with applications for mitigating carnivore attacks on livestock. Large carnivores that ambush prey attack and kill over small areas, requiring models at fine spatial grains to predict livestock depredation hot spots. To detect the best resolution for predicting where carnivores access livestock, we examined the spatial attributes associated with livestock killed by tigers in Kanha Tiger Reserve, India, using risk models generated at 20, 100, and 200-m spatial grains. We analyzed land-use, human presence, and vegetation structure variables at 138 kill sites and 439 random sites to identify key landscape attributes where livestock were vulnerable to tigers. Land-use and human presence variables contributed strongly to predation risk models, with most variables showing high relative importance (?0.85) at all spatial grains. The risk of a tiger killing livestock increased near dense forests and near the boundary of the park core zone where human presence is restricted. Risk was nonlinearly related to human infrastructure and open vegetation, with the greatest risk occurring 1.2 km from roads, 1.1 km from villages, and 8.0 km from scrubland. Kill sites were characterized by denser, patchier, and more complex vegetation with lower visibility than random sites. Risk maps revealed high-risk hot spots inside of the core zone boundary and in several patches in the human-dominated buffer zone. Validation against known kills revealed predictive accuracy for only the 20 m model, the resolution best representing the kill stage of hunting for large carnivores that ambush prey, like the tiger. Results demonstrate that risk models developed at fine spatial grains can offer accurate guidance on landscape attributes livestock should avoid to minimize human-carnivore conflict. PMID:25859339

  1. Mitigation measures to contain the environmental impact of urban areas: a bibliographic review moving from the life cycle approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belussi, Lorenzo; Barozzi, Benedetta

    2015-12-01

    The global environmental impact of urban areas has greatly increased over the years, due to the growth of urbanisation and the associated increase in management costs. There are several measures aimed at mitigating this impact that affect in different ways the environmental, economic and societal spheres. This article has analysed a selection of different mitigation measures, related to the built environment, according to the life cycle approach, aimed at identifying the procedural features chosen by the different authors and defining a common way to deal with this issue. In particular, all the individual single steps of a Life Cycle Assessment/Life Cycle Costing of the different studies are analysed and the results of the individual measures are highlighted. The analysis has shown how the scientific literature is mainly focused on the evaluation of the impact of technological solutions related to individual buildings (cool/green roof). Less interest is shown in the solutions for urban areas, while, as far as the impact on greenhouse gas emissions is concerned, some studies are shifting the target to a global scale. Due to the accuracy whereby the calculation of the impact indicators deals with and structures the life cycle methods, opportunities to compare studies developed by different authors are quite rare and hard to find. Hence the need to find a simple, intuitive and flexible scheme to combine some of the most useful results of the bibliographical studies, in a comparative outline of different technological solutions, which can support the decision-making phase through a rough assessment. PMID:26563232

  2. Dynamic monetary risk measures for bounded discrete-time processes

    CERN Document Server

    Cheridito, P; Kupper, M; Cheridito, Patrick; Delbaen, Freddy; Kupper, Michael

    2004-01-01

    We study time-consistency questions for processes of monetary risk measures that depend on bounded discrete-time processes describing the evolution of financial values. The time horizon can be finite or infinite. We call a process of monetary risk measures time-consistent if it assigns to a process of financial values the same risk irrespective of whether it is calculated directly or in two steps backwards in time, and we show how this property manifests itself in the corresponding process of acceptance sets. For processes of coherent and convex monetary risk measures admitting a robust representation with sigma-additive linear functionals, we give necessary and sufficient conditions for time-consistency in terms of the representing functionals.

  3. The Efficiency of Irradiated Garlic Powder in Mitigation of Hypercholesterolemic Risk Factor in High cholesterol Fed Rats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present study was conducted to explore the efficiency of radiation processed dried garlic powder at 10, 15 and 20 kGy on the average daily body gain, internal organ weights, certain hematological and biochemical parameters; including total plasma protein, albumin, globulin, total cholesterol, low and high density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C and HDL-C), triglyceride levels, and aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT) activities in rats fed with a high-cholesterol diet. Experimental rats were fed a high cholesterol diet (10 g kg-1) with and without raw or radiation processed dried garlic powder at the above-mentioned doses for 6 weeks. Control rats were fed a casein diet (C). 20 g kg-1 dietary raw or irradiated dried garlic powder was used to supplemented cholesterol diet (Ch). It was observed that cholesterol-fed (Ch) animals had a significant increase in relative liver weight, plasma total cholesterol, LDL-C, triglyceride levels, LDL/HDL ratio, AST and ALT activities and a significant decrease in HDL-C level compared to the control group of rats fed on a Casein diet (C). However, when the rats were fed with a high cholesterol diet mixed with 20 g kg-1 raw (ChRG) or irradiated dried garlic powder at 10 (ChG10), 15 (ChG15), and 20 kGy (ChG20), there was a significant reduction in their relative liver weight, hemoglobin, haematocrit, plasma total cholesterol, LDL-C, triglyceride levels, LDL/HDL ratio, and increased HDL level and amended AST and ALT activities levels as compared with the group which was on a diet containing high cholesterol without garlic powder (Ch). No significant changes were observed in relative spleen, kidney, lung, heart and testes weights, as well as, the total plasma protein, albumin, globulin concentrations in all of treated groups. These results show that the dietary 20 g kg-1 irradiated dried garlic powder at 10, 15 and 20 kGy are beneficial in reducing plasma cholesterol, triglycerides, LDL-C levels, El-Neily and El-Shennawy, J. Rad. Res. Appl. Sci., Vol. 1272 4, No. 4(B)(2011) LDL/HDL ratio, AST and ALT activities in hypercholesterolemic rats. Irradiated dried garlic powder supplementation, also, increased HDL. In conclusion, irradiated dried garlic powder at 10, 15 and 20 kGy improved the plasma lipid levels in rats fed cholesterol-containing diets and increased the plasma HDL-C and reduced LDL/HDL ratio in groups of rats fed cholesterol-diets. The higher dose used (20 kGy) did not impair the bioactive compounds of dried garlic powder, and it can be used as an additive in cooking and as a protective pharmaceutical supplement for mitigation of hypercholesterolemic risk factor

  4. Iterated risk measures for risk-sensitive Markov decision processes with discounted cost

    CERN Document Server

    Osogami, Takayuki

    2012-01-01

    We demonstrate a limitation of discounted expected utility, a standard approach for representing the preference to risk when future cost is discounted. Specifically, we provide an example of the preference of a decision maker that appears to be rational but cannot be represented with any discounted expected utility. A straightforward modification to discounted expected utility leads to inconsistent decision making over time. We will show that an iterated risk measure can represent the preference that cannot be represented by any discounted expected utility and that the decisions based on the iterated risk measure are consistent over time.

  5. Downgrading Complexity in the Exxon Valdez Crisis: Using Information as a Risk Mitigation Tool in Complex Adaptive Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Eric Snow

    2010-01-01

     

    In a high-stakes crisis environment, trial and error can be too costly an approach. The Exxon Valdez oil spill provides an example of how complex adaptive systems can have simple, preventable problems and complex, unpredictable problems can come together with disastrous consequences. Not every possible contingency can be accounted for. However, research and experience can be applied to mitigate these type...

  6. Measurement and mitigation of methane emissions from beef cattle in tropical grazing systems: a perspective from Australia and Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berndt, A; Tomkins, N W

    2013-06-01

    The growing global demand for food of animal origin will be the incentive for countries such as Australia and Brazil to increase their beef production and international exports. This increased supply of beef is expected to occur primarily through on-farm productivity increases. The strategies for reducing resultant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions should be evaluated in the context of the production system and should encompass a broader analysis, which would include the emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) and carbon sequestration. This paper provides an insight into CH4 measurement techniques applicable to grazing environments and proposed mitigation strategies, with relevance to the production systems that are predominant in grazing systems of Australia and Brazil. Research and technology investment in both Australia and Brazil is aimed at developing measurement techniques and increasing the efficiency of cattle production by improving herd genetics, utilization of the seasonal feed-base and reducing the proportion of metabolizable energy lost as CH4. Concerted efforts in these areas can be expected to reduce the number of unproductive animals, reduce age at slaughter and inevitably reduce emission intensity (EI) from beef production systems. Improving efficiency of livestock production systems in tropical grazing systems for Australia and Brazil will be based on cultivated and existing native pastures and the use of additives and by-products from other agricultural sectors. This approach spares grain-based feed reserves typically used for human consumption, but potentially incurs a heavier EI than current intensive feeding systems. The determination of GHG emissions and the value of mitigation outcomes for entire beef production systems in the extensive grazing systems is complex and require a multidisciplinary approach. It is fortunate that governments in both Australia and Brazil are supporting ongoing research activities. Nevertheless, to achieve an outcome that feeds a growing population while reducing emissions on a global scale continues to be a monumental challenge for ruminant nutritionists. PMID:23739477

  7. About neighborhood counting measure metric and minimum risk metric.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Argentini, Andrea; Blanzieri, Enrico

    2010-04-01

    In a 2006 TPAMI paper, Wang proposed the Neighborhood Counting Measure, a similarity measure for the k-NN algorithm. In his paper, Wang mentioned the Minimum Risk Metric (MRM), an early distance measure based on the minimization of the risk of misclassification. Wang did not compare NCM to MRM because of its allegedly excessive computational load. In this comment paper, we complete the comparison that was missing in Wang's paper and, from our empirical evaluation, we show that MRM outperforms NCM and that its running time is not prohibitive as Wang suggested. PMID:20224130

  8. Comprehensive assessments of measures mitigating heat island phenomena in urban areas; Heat shinku wo riyoshita daikibo reibo system no kaihatsu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ishitani, H.; Yamada, K.; Yamaji, K.; Matsuhashi, T.; Iizuka, E.; Suzuki, T.; Genchi, H.; Komiyama, H. [The University of Tokyo, Tokyo (Japan)

    1997-02-01

    This paper describes actual condition and measures against heat island (HI) phenomena in large urban areas with buildings. Tokyo was selected as a model. To extract typical pattern of daily change of air temperature, statistic analysis was conducted using the existing air temperature data at 100 points in and near the city of Tokyo. As a result, five patterns were obtained, i.e., central city, sea/land water affecting zone, thickly settled suburbs, garden city, and countryside. Each one point was selected in each pattern, to measure the underground temperature. It was found that the effect of HI can be easily evaluated from the underground temperature. It was suggested that the HI effect in the central city is estimated to be around 3.6 {degree}C. The measures mitigating HI were divided into the thermal balance improvement in the whole district and the temperature improvement of living space by homogenization or inhomogenization. Energy conservation was investigated for improving the thermal balance which can be practically conducted. According to the measures, it was found that the air temperature in the central city can be decreased by about 0.5 {degree}C at maximum. 3 figs., 1 tab.

  9. Measuring Time and Risk Preferences: Realiability, Stability, Domain Specificity

    OpenAIRE

    Wölbert, Eva; Riedl, Arno

    2013-01-01

    To accurately predict behavior economists need reliable measures of individual time preferences and attitudes toward risk and typically need to assume stability of these characteristics over time and across decision domains. We test the reliability of two choice tasks for eliciting discount rates, risk aversion, and probability weighting and assess the stability of these characteristics over time and across situations. We find high reliability and that individual characteristics are remarkabl...

  10. Alocação e mitigação dos riscos em parcerias público-privadas no Brasil / Asignación y mitigación de riesgos en la colaboración público-privada en Brasil / Allocating and mitigating risks in public-private partnerships in Brazil

    Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

    Carlos Marcio Campos, Lima; Antonio Carlos, Coelho.

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available O objetivo da pesquisa foi efetuar levantamento das condições referentes à distribuição de risco nas formalizações das parcerias público-privadas no Brasil, a partir do marco legal que instituiu tal forma de implantação de equipamentos sociais no Brasil. Foram avaliados, por pesquisa documental, com [...] o os fatores de riscos estão sendo alocados e distribuídos em 15 contratos celebrados, buscando determinar como são mitigados os riscos inerentes entre os parceiros públicos e privados. Os contratos apresentam definição expressiva dos riscos envolvidos e de sua responsabilidade pelos parceiros. As evidências sinalizaram que os parceiros privados têm absorvido, formalmente, a maioria dos fatores de riscos elencados; contudo, há expressas medidas de mitigação dos riscos atribuídos nos contratos ao parceiro privado, pela intervenção em última instância do ente público envolvido. Abstract in spanish The objective of the research was to survey conditions regarding risk sharing in public-private partnerships contracting in Brazil, from the legal framework establishment that allowed such social equipment deployment in Brazil. It was evaluated through documentary research how the risk factors are b [...] eing allocated and distributed in 15 contracts, seeking to determine how the risks are mitigated between the public and private partners. The contracts have expressive definition of the risks involved and their liability for the partners. The evidences indicated that private partners have formally absorbed most of the risk factors listed; however, there are express risks' mitigation measures granted in contracts to the private partner, by intervention in last instance of the public entity involved. Abstract in english El objetivo de la investigación fue inspeccionar las condiciones en cuanto a la distribución del riesgo en contrataciones por la colaboración público-privada en Brasil, desde que el marco legal estableció tal despliegue de equipamiento social en Brasil. Fueron evaluados, por investigación documental [...] , como los factores de riesgo están siendo asignados y distribuidos en 15 contratos, buscando determinar cómo se mitigan los riesgos entre los socios públicos y privados. Los contratos tienen expresiva definición de los riesgos y su responsabilidad definida para los socios. La evidencia indica que los socios privados formalmente han absorbido la mayoría de los factores de riesgo mencionados; Sin embargo, hay medidas de mitigación de riesgo expreso otorgadas en contratos con el socio privado, por la intervención en última instancia de la entidad pública que se trate.

  11. Mitigation of malicious attacks on networks

    OpenAIRE

    Schneider C.M.; Moreira A.A.; Andrade Jr. J.S.; Havlin S.; Herrmann H.J.

    2011-01-01

    Terrorist attacks on transportation networks have traumatized modern societies. With a single blast, it has become possible to paralyze airline traffic, electric power supply, ground transportation or Internet communication. How and at which cost can one restructure the network such that it will become more robust against a malicious attack? We introduce a unique measure for robustness and use it to devise a method to mitigate economically and efficiently this risk. We demon...

  12. Key Escrow Attack Risk and Preventive Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiang Fan

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Cryptographic technology is always a highly sensitive dual-use technology. All nations have to face a dilemma in terms of password usage: on the one hand, to fully guarantee the safety and confidentiality of personal communication, as well as personal privacy and communication freedom required by law; on the other hand, to make sure law-enforcing departments and security organs crack down and prevent crime. It might be a great help for crime and terrorist organizations that the wide application of cryptography is made public. Many people believe that plain text communicated through the public network is accessible to an appropriate government agency if law permits. Therefore, it has become a continuous hot issue of cryptographic technology that how to design a cryptographic system through which legal persons are able to protect the safety of their information, yet being monitored by government in the range permitted by law. In this study, an in-depth study is carried out on the controversial key escrow technology, analyzing its composition and algorithm and pointing out possible attacks and preventive measures.

  13. Formaldehyde and acetaldehyde exposure mitigation in US residences: in-home measurements of ventilation control and source control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hult, E L; Willem, H; Price, P N; Hotchi, T; Russell, M L; Singer, B C

    2015-10-01

    Measurements were taken in new US residences to assess the extent to which ventilation and source control can mitigate formaldehyde exposure. Increasing ventilation consistently lowered indoor formaldehyde concentrations. However, at a reference air exchange rate of 0.35 h(-1), increasing ventilation was up to 60% less effective than would be predicted if the emission rate were constant. This is consistent with formaldehyde emission rates decreasing as air concentrations increase, as observed in chamber studies. In contrast, measurements suggest acetaldehyde emission was independent of ventilation rate. To evaluate the effectiveness of source control, formaldehyde concentrations were measured in Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED)-certified/Indoor airPLUS homes constructed with materials certified to have low emission rates of volatile organic compounds (VOC). At a reference air exchange rate of 0.35 h(-1), and adjusting for home age, temperature and relative humidity, formaldehyde concentrations in homes built with low-VOC materials were 42% lower on average than in reference new homes with conventional building materials. Without adjustment, concentrations were 27% lower in the low-VOC homes. The mean and standard deviation of formaldehyde concentration was 33 ?g/m(3) and 22 ?g/m(3) for low-VOC homes and 45 ?g/m(3) and 30 ?g/m(3) for conventional. PMID:25252109

  14. Cost effectiveness comparison of certain transportation measures to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in San Diego County, California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    California's overarching mandate to achieve 1990 levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in 2020 (AB 32, 2005), and the ensuing recent regulations (SB 375, CEQA updates) require local and regional governments to assess GHG mitigation policies, including on-road transportation. The regulations do not make cost-effectiveness a primary criteria for choosing measures but cost remains important to a variety of stakeholders. This communication summarizes results from GHG and cost analysis for seven actual San Diego County road transportation policies: telecommute, vanpools, a bicycle strategy, an increase in mass transit use, parking policies (parking pricing, preferred parking for electric vehicles), an increased local fuel tax and speed harmonization (signal re-timing, roundabouts). Net costs are calculated as the sum of direct costs and benefits to the administering agency, the employer and the individual. Net costs per metric ton GHG abated vary greatly across measures, from negative to high positive (more than US $1000). We find that local GHG cost cannot be sensibly compared to other carbon or GHG policy costs outside the local context for a variety of reasons, but especially because measures have not been adopted primarily for carbon or GHG abatement potential or on the basis of cost effectiveness

  15. A tale of tails: An empirical analysis of loss distribution models for estimating operational risk capital

    OpenAIRE

    Dutta, Kabir; Perry, Jason

    2006-01-01

    Operational risk is being considered as an important risk component for financial institutions as evinced by the large sums of capital that are allocated to mitigate this risk. Therefore, risl measurement is of paramount concern for the purposes of capital allocation, hedging, and new product development for risk mitigation. We perform a comprehensive evaluation of commonly used methods and introduce new techniques to measure this risk with respect to various criteria. We find that our newly ...

  16. Development of Technology Readiness Level (TRL) Metrics and Risk Measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Anderson, K. K.; Sivaramakrishnan, Chandrika; Lansing, Carina

    2012-10-01

    This is an internal project milestone report to document the CCSI Element 7 team's progress on developing Technology Readiness Level (TRL) metrics and risk measures. In this report, we provide a brief overview of the current technology readiness assessment research, document the development of technology readiness levels (TRLs) specific to carbon capture technologies, describe the risk measures and uncertainty quantification approaches used in our research, and conclude by discussing the next steps that the CCSI Task 7 team aims to accomplish.

  17. A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sitima Innocent

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures

  18. Dynamical properties measurements for asteroid, comet and meteorite material applicable to impact modeling and mitigation calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Furnish, M.D.; Boslough, M.B. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gray, G.T. III [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Remo, J.L. [Quantametrics, Inc., St. James, NY (United States)

    1994-07-01

    We describe methods for measuring dynamical properties for two material categories of interest in understanding large-scale extraterrestrial impacts: iron-nickel and underdense materials (e.g. snow). Particular material properties measured by the present methods include Hugoniot release paths and constitutive properties (stress vs. strain). The iron-nickel materials lend themselves well to conventional shock and quasi-static experiments. As examples, a suite of experiments is described including six impact tests (wave profile compression/release) over the stress range 2--20 GPa, metallography, quasi-static and split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) mechanical testing, and ultrasonic mapping and sound velocity measurements. Temperature sensitivity of the dynamic behavior was measured at high and low strain rates. Among the iron-nickel materials tested, an octahedrite was found to have behavior close to that of Armco iron under shock and quasi-static conditions, while an ataxite exhibited a significantly larger quasi-static yield strength than did the octahedrite or a hexahedrite. The underdense materials pose three primary experimental difficulties. First, the samples are friable; they can melt or sublimate during storage, preparation and testing. Second, they are brittle and crushable; they cannot withstand such treatment as traditional machining or launch in a gun system. Third, with increasing porosity the calculated Hugoniot density becomes rapidly more sensitive to errors in wave time-of-arrival measurements. Carefully chosen simulants eliminate preservation (friability) difficulties, but the other difficulties remain. A family of 36 impact tests was conducted on snow and snow simulants at Sandia, yielding reliable Hugoniot and reshock states, but limited release property information. Other methods for characterizing these materials are discussed.

  19. Measuring and hedging financial risks in dynamical world

    CERN Document Server

    Karoui, N E

    2003-01-01

    Financial markets have developed a lot of strategies to control risks induced by market fluctuations. Mathematics has emerged as the leading discipline to address fundamental questions in finance as asset pricing model and hedging strategies. History began with the paradigm of zero-risk introduced by Black & Scholes stating that any random amount to be paid in the future may be replicated by a dynamical portfolio. In practice, the lack of information leads to ill-posed problems when model calibrating. The real world is more complex and new pricing and hedging methodologies have been necessary. This challenging question has generated a deep and intensive academic research in the 20 last years, based on super-replication (perfect or with respect to confidence level) and optimization. In the interplay between theory and practice, Monte Carlo methods have been revisited, new risk measures have been back-tested. These typical examples give some insights on how may be used mathematics in financial risk manageme...

  20. Methods for measuring risk-aversion: problems and solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk-aversion is a fundamental parameter determining how humans act when required to operate in situations of risk. Its general applicability has been discussed in a companion presentation, and this paper examines methods that have been used in the past to measure it and their attendant problems. It needs to be borne in mind that risk-aversion varies with the size of the possible loss, growing strongly as the possible loss becomes comparable with the decision maker's assets. Hence measuring risk-aversion when the potential loss or gain is small will produce values close to the risk-neutral value of zero, irrespective of who the decision maker is. It will also be shown how the generally accepted practice of basing a measurement on the results of a three-term Taylor series will estimate a limiting value, minimum or maximum, rather than the value utilised in the decision. A solution is to match the correct utility function to the results instead

  1. Methods for measuring risk-aversion: problems and solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, P. J.

    2013-09-01

    Risk-aversion is a fundamental parameter determining how humans act when required to operate in situations of risk. Its general applicability has been discussed in a companion presentation, and this paper examines methods that have been used in the past to measure it and their attendant problems. It needs to be borne in mind that risk-aversion varies with the size of the possible loss, growing strongly as the possible loss becomes comparable with the decision maker's assets. Hence measuring risk-aversion when the potential loss or gain is small will produce values close to the risk-neutral value of zero, irrespective of who the decision maker is. It will also be shown how the generally accepted practice of basing a measurement on the results of a three-term Taylor series will estimate a limiting value, minimum or maximum, rather than the value utilised in the decision. A solution is to match the correct utility function to the results instead.

  2. Measuring the clustering of photometric quasars through blind mitigation of systematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leistedt, Boris; Peiris, Hiranya V.; Roth, Nina

    2014-05-01

    We present accurate measurements of the large-scale clustering of photometric quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. These results, detailed in Leistedt & Peiris (2014), rely on a novel technique to identify and treat systematics when measuring angular power spectra, using null-tests and analytical marginalisation. This approach can be used to maximise the extraction of information from current and future galaxy or quasar surveys. For example, it enables to robustly constrain primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG), which modifies the bias of galaxies and quasars on large scales - the most sensitive to observational systematics. The constraints on PNG obtained with the quasar power spectra are detailed in Leistedt, Peiris & Roth (2014); these are the most stringent constraints to date obtained with a single tracer of the large-scale structure.

  3. Evaluation of environmental impacts caused by hydroelectric power plants in native forest areas and mitigation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The following work has the intention of demonstrating the importance of native forest to the human life, not only through its inherent qualities as something to preserve, but also as a source of great resources, and in particular hydroelectric resource that, by today's necessities are bounded to be explored. The negative effects caused by the implementation of a hydroelectric plant are shown together with the necessity of adoption of measures that would soften the environment impact of it. For the adoption of those measures, many forest studies were proposed in the search for its complete characterization. Each of these studies are duly defined and presented in their general and specific goals. The most adequate methodology is finally recommended. (author). 14 refs

  4. Epidemiologic measures of risk as a basis for legal compensation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The scientific basis for compensation of persons developing cancer who have a documented history of exposure to radiation or other carcinogens is an important legal issue. The measure Relative Attributable Risk (RAR) has been proposed as a basis for determining eligibility for compensation. The purpose of this report is to present results of an analysis of the magnitude and sources of uncertainty in the RAR measure. The range of 1/106/rad-year to 6/106/rad-year was chosen as a reasonable range of excess-risk estimates for thyroid cancer based on published estimates. The use of such a range in risk estimates produces very wide variability in RAR estimates. Uncertainty in underlying incidence levels and in dosimetry are other major factors contributing to large variability in estimated RAR levels

  5. Security engineering: Phisical security measures for high-risk personnel

    OpenAIRE

    Jelena S. Cice; Marko D. Andreji?; Nebojša K. Dragovi?

    2013-01-01

    The design of physical security measures is a specialized technical area that does not fall in the normal skill record and resume of commanders, architects, engineers, and project managers. This document provides guidance to those parties tasked with implementing existing and emerging physical protection system requirements: -    Creation of a single-source reference for the design and construction of physical security measures for high-risk personnel (HRP). -    Promulgation of multi-servic...

  6. Risk Measures in a Regime Switching Model Capturing Stylized Facts

    OpenAIRE

    Haidinger, Rainer; Warnung, Richard

    2012-01-01

    We pick up the regime switching model for asset returns introduced by Rogers and Zhang. The calibration involves various markets including implied volatility in order to gain additional predictive power. We focus on the calculation of risk measures by Fourier methods that have successfully been applied to option pricing and analyze the accuracy of the results.

  7. An Interaction Model for Simulation and Mitigation of Cascading Failures

    CERN Document Server

    Qi, Junjian; Mei, Shengwei

    2014-01-01

    Cascading failures triggered by trivial initial events are encountered in many complex systems. It is actually not any specific reason but the interaction between components of the system that causes cascading failures. Based on this idea interactions between components are quantified and the interaction matrix and interaction network are obtained. By using the quantified interactions, key links and key components that play important roles in the propagation of cascading failures are identified. An interaction model is also proposed to simulate cascading failures by using the interactions and to study the influence of these interactions on the cascading failure risk. Interaction-based mitigation measures are suggested to mitigate the cascading failure risk by eliminating a small number of key links, which can be achieved in real systems by wide area protection such as blocking of some specific protective relays. The proposed interaction quantifying method, cascading failure model, and mitigation measures are ...

  8. Department of Energy--Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Geothermal Program: Geothermal Risk Mitigation Strategies Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None, None

    2008-02-15

    An overview of general financial issues for renewable energy investments; geothermal energy investment barriers and risks; and recommendations for incentives and instruments to be considered to stimulate investment in geothermal energy development.

  9. REIMR - A Process for Utilizing Liquid Rocket Propulsion-Oriented 'Lessons Learned' to Mitigate Development Risk in Nuclear Thermal Propulsion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper is a summary overview of a study conducted at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA-MSFC) during the initial phases of the Space Launch Initiative (SLI) program to evaluate a large number of technical problems associated with the design, development, test, evaluation and operation of several major liquid propellant rocket engine systems (i.e., SSME, Fastrac, J-2, F-1). One of the primary results of this study was the identification of the 'Fundamental Root Causes' that enabled the technical problems to manifest, and practices that can be implemented to prevent them from recurring in future propulsion system development efforts, such as that which is currently envisioned in the field of nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP). This paper will discus the Fundamental Root Causes, cite some examples of how the technical problems arose from them, and provide a discussion of how they can be mitigated or avoided in the development of an NTP system

  10. An ‘innovation-cycle framework’ of integrated agricultural knowledge system and innovation for improving farmers’climate change adaptation and risk mitigation capacities : A case of Bangladesh

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rahman, Md Zillur

    2015-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to present a new ‘innovation-cycle’ integrated conceptual framework of ‘TVET-adaptive AKSI’ (TVET: Technical and Vocational Education and Training; AKSI: Agricultural Knowledge System and Innovation). Thus the aim here is to discuss from existing body of literature of how ‘TVET-adaptive AKSI’ can be the ‘Next Frontier of Green Innovation’ and adaptation strategy to improve agricultural-based producers’ understanding of ‘risk perception and mitigation’ (a case of Bangladesh is considered). Given the present state of producers’ risks perceptions and the increased risks of safe agricultural food production, sustainable environment and health, it will be unprecedented challenges due to increasing demand for safe food supply for future growing population in Bangladesh. Studies show that producers (farmers) are still lagging behind with lack of necessary capacities including shortage of adequate knowledge of understanding in both ‘environmental’ and ‘health’ risks, which are contributing to excessive use of pesticides, fertilizers and agrochemicals for agricultural production, mixing of prohibited or hazardous chemicals with foods and foodstuffs for food adulteration, post-harvest preservation, and processing without being sufficiently aware of health and environmental consequences. To address the issue, very little investigations were done to understand how producers’ perception and ignorance of risks are interconnected to the ways of their risky behaviour. Thus the aim of this paper is to explore existing literature to draw an understanding by developing a ‘conceptual framework’ about the urgent need of future ‘Game Changer’ strategy (e.g. Next Frontier of Green Innovation) for the safety and security of rapidly growing population by tackling the challenges of sustainable agricultural and safe food production in Bangladesh.

  11. Adherence Monitoring with Chronic Opioid Therapy for Persistent Pain: A Biopsychosocial-spiritual Approach to Mitigate Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Matteliano, Deborah; St. Marie, Barbara J.; Oliver, June

    2012-01-01

    Opioids represent a mainstay in the pharmacological management of persistent pain. While these drugs are intended to support improved comfort and function, the inherent risk of abuse or addiction must be considered in the delivery of care. The experience of living with persistent pain often includes depression, fear, loss, and anxiety, leading to feelings of hopelessness, helplessness, and spiritual crisis. Collectively, these factors represent an increased risk for all patients, particularly...

  12. Proceedings of third Indo-German workshop and theme meeting on seismic safety of structures, risk assessment and disaster mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This Indo-German workshop focuses and emphasises the current research and development activities in both the countries. Themes of this meeting are Earthquake Hazard and Vulnerability Assessment, Risk Assessment Techniques, Seismic Risk to Mega Cities, Testing and Evaluation of Structures and Components, Base Isolation and other Control Techniques, Seismic Strengthening of Structures, Design Practices and Specifications, Remote Sensing and GIS Applications, Structural Materials and Composites, Containment and Other Special Structures. Papers relevant to INIS are indexed separately

  13. C-Band Airport Surface Communications System Engineering-Initial High-Level Safety Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed C-band (5091- to 5150-MHz) airport surface communication system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents an initial high-level safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the C-band communication system after the profile is finalized and system rollout timing is determined. A security risk assessment has been performed by NASA as a parallel activity. While safety analysis is concerned with a prevention of accidental errors and failures, the security threat analysis focuses on deliberate attacks. Both processes identify the events that affect operation of the system; and from a safety perspective the security threats may present safety risks.

  14. Measuring the risk of an Iranian banking system using Value at Risk (VaR Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sudabeh Morshedian Rafiee

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Measuring risk of financial institutes and banks plays an important role on managing them. Recent financial turmoil in United States banking system has motivated banking industry to monitor risk factors more closely. In this paper, we present an empirical study to measure the risk of some private banks in Iran called Bank Mellat using Value at Risk (VaR method. The proposed study collects the necessary information for the fiscal year of 2010 and analyses them using regression analysis. The study divides the financial data into two groups where the financial data of the first half of year is considered in the first group and the remaining information for the second half of year 2010 is considered in the second group. The implementation of VaR method indicates that financial risks increase during the time horizon. The study also uses linear regression method where independent variable is time, dependent variable is the financial risk, and the results confirm what we have found in the previous part of the survey.

  15. Identification studies about take measures for mitigate of gas emissions greenhouse effect in energy Sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the Unit Nations Convention about Climatic change has get stability of greenhouse effects in atmosphere concentrations. In the framework to Uruguay Project URU/95/631 have been defined the need to identify, measures, practices, process and technologies for reduce some emissions furthermore in Energy sector. Emission impact, cost-benefit, direct or iundirect, national programs, factibility such as social, politics and Institutional agreements was considered in the present work. It was given emissions proyected for 15 years period 1999-2013 of the following atmospheric pollutants: carbon dioxide,carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides and methane.Eight stages was applied the emission evaluation: natural gas; without natural gas; transport; industrial; Montevidean bus- car demand; natural gas uses in bus-taxi; nitrogen oxides control in thermic centrals; catalytic converters in gasoline cars

  16. Study on the possibility of measurement of individual risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In industry, because of retirement of postwar baby-boom generation and decreasing labor accident by improvement in facilities, diminished worker's risk perception is concerned about. Although hazard prediction activity (KY: Kiken-Yochi) is carried out for improvement of workers' risk perception in sites, it is get into a rut not to estimate the effects of the activity. Then the purpose of this study is to examine the possibility of measuring and estimating individual inherent risk perception not depending on the experiences and knowledge, and to confirm the effects of the experiences and knowledge on one's risk perception. Eleven subjects were requested to detect the hazards and to estimate the results and the extents of damage in the three films (1: working at an office (all subjects had the experience), 2: feeding at the GS (gas station) (half of them had the experience), 3: overhauling a valve (no one had the experience)) that were included in some hazards. The rate of hazards detection and the accuracies of 5 categories, that were hazards, results, damage of human, damage of objects or facilities and coping, were calculated. The experience of feeding had effects on the rate of hazards detection and some of the accuracies at the film of feeding at the GS. Also, all of indices were significantly lower at the firm of overhauling a valve than the firm of working at an office. These results showed that the experiences and knowledge were affected on one's risk perception. Meanwhile, the similarity of the tendency to the rate of hazards detection and the accuracies between 2 firms except for the firm of feeding was found by means of the ordinal correlation. The result showed that it will be able to measure the individual inherent risk perception from the number of hazards detection and the depth of the context. The future issues are discussed for developing the method to evaluate the risk perception. (author)

  17. VAR Methodology Used for Exchange Risk Measurement and Prevention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Stancu

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available In this article we discuss one of the modern risk measuring techniques Value-at-Risk (VaR. Currently central banks in major money centers, under the auspices of the BIS Basle Committee, adopt the VaR system to evaluate the market risk of their supervised banks. Banks regulators ask all commercial banks to report VaRs with their internal models. Value at risk (VaR is a powerful tool for assessing market risk, but it also imposes a challenge. Its power is its generality. Unlike market risk metrics such as the Greeks, duration and convexity, or beta, which are applicable to only certain asset categories or certain sources of market risk, VaR is general. It is based on the probability distribution for a portfolio’s market value. Value at Risk (VAR calculates the maximum loss expected (or worst case scenario on an investment, over a given time period and given a specified degree of confidence. There are three methods by which VaR can be calculated: the historical simulation, the variance-covariance method and the Monte Carlo simulation. The variance-covariance method is easiest because you need to estimate only two factors: average return and standard deviation. However, it assumes returns are well-behaved according to the symmetrical normal curve and that historical patterns will repeat into the future. The historical simulation improves on the accuracy of the VAR calculation, but requires more computational data; it also assumes that “past is prologue”. The Monte Carlo simulation is complex, but has the advantage of allowing users to tailor ideas about future patterns that depart from historical patterns.

  18. VAR Methodology Used for Exchange Risk Measurement and Prevention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florentina Balu

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available In this article we discuss one of the modern risk measuring techniques Value-at-Risk (VaR. Currently central banks in major money centers, under the auspices of the BIS Basle Committee, adopt the VaR system to evaluate the market risk of their supervised banks. Banks regulators ask all commercial banks to report VaRs with their internal models. Value at risk (VaR is a powerful tool for assessing market risk, but it also imposes a challenge. Its power is its generality. Unlike market risk metrics such as the Greeks, duration and convexity, or beta, which are applicable to only certain asset categories or certain sources of market risk, VaR is general. It is based on the probability distribution for a portfolio’s market value. Value at Risk (VAR calculates the maximum loss expected (or worst case scenario on an investment, over a given time period and given a specified degree of confidence. There are three methods by which VaR can be calculated: the historical simulation, the variance-covariance method and the Monte Carlo simulation. The variance-covariance method is easiest because you need to estimate only two factors: average return and standard deviation. However, it assumes returns are well-behaved according to the symmetrical normal curve and that historical patterns will repeat into the future. The historical simulation improves on the accuracy of the VAR calculation, but requires more computational data; it also assumes that “past is prologue”. The Monte Carlo simulation is complex, but has the advantage of allowing users to tailor ideas about future patterns that depart from historical patterns.

  19. Measuring Value at Risk for Mortgage Backed Securities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Svend

    1996-01-01

    This paper investigates the computation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) measures for mortgage backed securities (MBSs) using data for the Danish MBS market. The current RiskMetrics proposal from J.P. Morgan is used as a reference point throughout, but the study diverge somewhat from their proposal, especially with respect to the estimation of zero coupon yield curves as well as in the choice of mapping techniques. The MBS-valuation is done by a model developed in Jakobsen(1992,1994), which includes burn-...

  20. Comprehensive assessments of measures mitigating heat island phenomena in urban areas; Heat shinku wo riyoshita daikibo reibo system no kaihatsu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mizuno, T.; Yamamoto, S.; Yoshikado, H.; Kondo, H.; Kaneho, N.; Saegusa, N.; Inaba, A. [National Institute for Resources and Environment, Tsukuba (Japan); Inoue, M. [New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization, Tokyo, (Japan)

    1997-02-01

    This paper describes the assessment method of measures mitigating heat island phenomena in urban areas. The heat island phenomena were classified into meso-scale with 100 km-scale, block-scale with several km-scale, and building-scale with 100 m-scale. Urban thermal environment simulation model was developed in response to each scale. For the development, regional data using aircraft and artificial satellite observations, surface observation and thermal environment observation at Shinjuku new central city of Tokyo, and artificial waste heat actual survey data in the southern Kanto district were utilized. Results of the urban thermal environment simulation were introduced as an application of this model. Temperature distributions of the heat island in the Kanto district were simulated with considering urban conditions near Tokyo and without considering it. Daily changes of wall surfaces of high buildings and road surface were calculated. Increase in the air temperature in the back stream of building roofs with increased temperature was determined. 4 figs.

  1. Address to the international workshop on greenhouse gas mitigation, technologies and measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kant, A.

    1996-12-31

    The Netherlands has a long history in combatting natural forces for it`s mere survival and even creation. Around half of the country was not Yet existent around 2000 years ago: it was still below sea level that time. Building dikes and the discovery of eolic energy applied in windmills, allowing to pump water from one side of the dike to the other, are technologies that gradually shaped the country into its current form, a process that continues to materialize till the present day. Water has not always been an enemy of the country. In the Hundred Year War with Spain, during which the country was occupied territory for most of the time, the water was used to drive the Spanish armies from the country. As large parts are well below sea level breaking the dikes resulted in flooding the country which made the armoury of the Spanish army useless. In this way they had to give up the siege of several major Dutch cities that time. These events marked the gradual liberation of the Dutch territory. Consequently, in the discussion on adaption and prevention of the greenhouse effect the Netherlands has a clear stand. The greenhouse effect will occur anyway, even if countries deploy all possible counter measures at once. So their aim is to prevent the occurrence of the greenhouse effect to the highest extent possible, and to protect the most vulnerable areas meanwhile, especially the coastal zones. In order to reach these goals the Dutch government has established a Joint Implementation Experimental Programme in accordance with the provisions made by the Conference of Parties in Berlin (1995).

  2. Short and long term efficiencies of debris risk reduction measures: Application to a European LEO mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, T.; Kervarc, R.; Bertrand, S.; Carle, P.; Donath, T.; Destefanis, R.; Grassi, L.; Tiboldo, F.; Schäfer, F.; Kempf, S.; Gelhaus, J.

    2015-01-01

    Recent numerical studies indicate that the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment has reached a point such that even if no further space launches were conducted, the Earth satellite population would remain relatively constant for only the next 50 years or so. Beyond that, the debris population would begin to increase noticeably, due to the production of collisional debris (Liou and Johnson, 2008). Measures to be enforced play thus a major role to preserve an acceptable space mission risk and ensure sustainable space activities. The identification of such measures and the quantification of their efficiency over time for LEO missions is of prime concern in the decision-making process, as it has been investigated for the last few decades by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). This paper addresses the final results of a generic methodology and the characteristics of a tool developed to assess the efficiency of the risk reduction measures identified for the Sentinel-1 (S1) mission. This work is performed as part of the 34-month P2-ROTECT project (Prediction, Protection & Reduction of OrbiTal Exposure to Collision Threats), funded by the European Union within the Seventh Framework Programme. Three ways of risk reduction have been investigated, both in short and long-term, namely: better satellite protection, better conjunction prediction, and cleaner environment. According to our assumptions, the S1 mission vulnerability evaluations in the long term (from 2093 to 2100) show that full compliance to the mitigation measures leads to a situation twice safer than that induced by an active debris removal of 5 objects per year in a MASTER2009 Business-As-Usual context. Because these measures have visible risk reduction effects in the long term, complementary measures with short response time are also studied. In the short term (from 2013 to 2020), a better prediction of the conjunctions is more efficient than protecting the satellite S1 itself. By combining a better prediction with an enhanced satellite protection the S1 is estimated to extend its extra mission lifetime by 4% with respect to its nominal lifetime (7.25 years).

  3. The Management Object in Risk Management Approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Ulrik

    2013-01-01

    Using a systematic review of the last 55 years of research within risk management this paper explores how risk management as a management technology (methodologies, tools and frameworks to mitigate or manage risks) singles out risks as an object for management in order to make action possible. The paper synthesise by developing a framework of how different views on risk management enable and constrain the knowledge about risk and thus frame the possibilities to measure, analyse and calculate unc...

  4. Approving the ISDWIR Method of Risk Measurement in Making Risk Management Decision || Aprobación del método de medición del riesgo SIIPDR en el manejo de asunción de riesgos

    OpenAIRE

    Strelnik, Mikhail

    2014-01-01

    This paper is devoted to risk management and risk measurement methods. The author considers methods of risk measurement and proposes the Integral Sum of Diff erential Weighted Indexes of Risks (or ISDWIR) method of risk measurement. The method is based on dynamic enterprise risk matrices. The matrix describes the changes of corporate risk values over the time. The method assists to choose risk management decision having good e ffects on corporate risk values. The ISDWIR method is also c...

  5. Riscos e controles internos: uma metodologia de mensuração dos níveis de controle de riscos empresariais Internal risks and controls: a methodology to measure business risk control levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wanderlei de Lima De Paulo

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Este artigo apresenta uma metodologia de mensuração do nível de controle de riscos inerentes aos processos de qualquer entidade, a partir da construção de um índice de desempenho definido em função da capacidade dos controles mitigarem os riscos e da eficácia dos controles implantados. O modelo possibilita ao gestor de riscos identificar para quais riscos são necessárias ações de melhoria de controle, quais possuem níveis de controles adequados e quais controles em excesso, contribuindo, assim, para a otimização da aplicação dos recursos disponíveis para a gestão de riscos e controles internos nas empresas. A metodologia foi aplicada a um estudo de caso e mostrou-se satisfatória do ponto de vista de avaliação e identificação dos níveis de controle.This paper presents a control measurement methodology applied in the processes performed by any entity. The methodology is derived from the analysis of the mitigation capabilities of the controls currently in use by the entity. The method enables risk managers to identify which risks require urgent actions to improve the control levels, which risks are already adequately controlled and which ones are in a situation of excessive control. This kind of information can play an important role to improve the application of available internal risk and control management resources in companies. The methodology was applied to a case study and revealed to be a satisfactory tool to assess and identify control levels.

  6. Proceedings of the Canadian Institute's 4. annual oil sands supply and infrastructure conference : maximizing opportunity and mitigating risks in a rapidly growing market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This conference addressed the challenges facing oil sands development, with particular reference to supply and infrastructure issues. Updates on oil sands markets and opportunities were presented along with strategies for mitigating risks in a rapidly growing market. The best practices for supplying a demanding market through supply shortages and high prices were identified along with policies that should be implemented to help overcome labour shortages. Some presentations expressed how commodities pricing and trends can impact business. Others showed how markets in China and the United States are prepared for oilsands products. The views of other international companies on oil sands was also discussed along with proposed plans to eliminate the infrastructure congestion and risks caused by expanding oil sands development. The challenges and benefits of investing in Alberta's oil sands were reviewed along with strategies to enhance upgrading and refining capacity in the province. Economic drivers and the creation of new markets were examined, and various export opportunities were reviewed along with industry management challenges concerning human resources, labour supply, training and education. The conference featured 10 presentations, of which 3 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs

  7. MEASUREMENT OF SHARIAH STOCK PERFORMANCE USING RISK ADJUSTED PERFORMANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuhairan Y Yunan

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to analyze the shariah stock performance using risk adjusted performance method. There are three parameters to measure the stock performance i.e. Sharpe, Treynor, and Jensen. This performance’s measurements calculate the return and risk factor from shariah stocks. The data that used on this research is using the data of stocks at Jakarta Islamic Index. Sampling method that used on this paper is purposive sampling. This research is using ten companies as a sample. The result shows that from three parameters, the stock that have a best performance are AALI, ANTM, ASII, CPIN, INDF, KLBF, LSIP, and UNTR.DOI: 10.15408/ijies.v7i1.1364

  8. The New Standardized Approach for Measuring Counterparty Credit Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Jonsson, Sara; Rönnlund, Beatrice

    2014-01-01

    This study investigates the differences in calculationof exposure at default between the current exposure method (CEM) and the newstandardized approach for measuring counterparty credit risk exposures (SA-CCR)for over the counter (OTC) derivatives. The study intends to analyze theconsequence of the usage of different approaches for netting as well as the differencesin EAD between asset classes. After implementing both models and calculating EADon real trades of a Swedish commercial bank it wa...

  9. Risk Measures in Optimization Problems via Empirical Estimates.

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ka?ková, Vlasta

    2013-01-01

    Ro?. 7, ?. 3 (2013), s. 162-177. ISSN 0323-066X R&D Projects: GA ?R GAP402/10/0956; GA ?R GAP402/11/0150; GA ?R GAP402/10/1610 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : static stochastic optimization problems * risk measures * empirical distribution function Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/kankova-0423826.pdf

  10. Measuring Sexual Risk for HIV: A Rasch Scaling Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Fendrich, Michael; Smith, Everett V.; Pollack, Lance M; Mackesy-Amiti, Mary Ellen

    2008-01-01

    In this study, we developed an HIV transmission risk scale and examined its psychometric properties using data on sexual behavior obtained from a probability sample of adult men who have sex with men living in Chicago. We used Messick’s (Am Psychol 50:741–749, 1995) conceptualization of unified validity theory to organize the psychometric properties of data. Evidence related to scale content was investigated via Rasch item fit statistics, point-measure correlations, and expert evaluation. The...

  11. Chain Risk Model for quantifying cost effectiveness of phytosanitary measures

    OpenAIRE

    Benninga, J.; Hennen, W.H.G.J.; Schans, J., van der

    2010-01-01

    A Chain Risk Model (CRM) was developed for a cost effective assessment of phytosanitary measures. The CRM model can be applied to phytosanitary assessments of all agricultural product chains. In CRM, stages are connected by product volume flows with which pest infections can be spread from one stage to another. The arrangement of these stages can be varied. Experience with CRM was acquired through two cases: Clavibacter in Tomatoes and PSTVd (Potato Spindle Tuber Viroid) in potatoes. Employee...

  12. Reportable Creation: value, performance and risk measurement in financial reporting

    OpenAIRE

    Jager, N.G. de

    2006-01-01

    Reporting on value or reporting value-relevant information unavoidably implies that estimates of future cash flows should be made. Consequently, uncertainty becomes an important factor in (external) financial reporting. For a long time, uncertainty was dealt with by substituting relevant but uncertain recognition and measurement with less relevant but more certain principles. In the past few years, fair value becomes more and more a leading principle in financial reporting and risk disclosure...

  13. Remote Sensing of the Urban Heat Island Effect: Assessment of Risks to Human Health and Development of Mitigation Strategies for Sustainable Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Rickman, Douglas L.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Laymon, Charles A.; Crosson, William; Howell, Burgess F.; Gillani, Noor V.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and in areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80% of the world's population will live in cities. One of the more egregious side effects of urbanization is the deterioration in air quality as a result of increased vehicular traffic, industrialization and related activities. In the United States alone, under the more stringent air quality guidelines established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1997, nearly 300 counties in 34 states will not meet the new air quality standards for ground level ozone. The mitigation of one the physical/environmental characteristics of urbanization known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect, is now being looked at more closely as a possible way to bring down ground level ozone levels in cities and assist states in improving air quality. The UHI results from the replacement of "natural" land covers (e.g., trees, grass) with urban land surface types, such as pavement and buildings. Heat stored in these surfaces is released into the air and results in a "dome" of elevated air temperatures that presides over cities. The effect of this dome of elevated air temperatures is known as the UHI, which is most prevalent about 2-3 hours after sunset on days with intense solar radiation and calm winds. Given the local and regional impacts of the UHI, there are significant potential affects on human health, particularly as related to heat stress and ozone on body temperature regulation and on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. In this study we are using airborne and satellite remote sensing data to analyze how differences in the urban landscape influence or drive the development of the UHI over four U.S. cities. Additionally, we are assessing what the potential impact is on risks to human health, and developing mitigation strategies to make urban areas more environmentally sustainable.

  14. High Spatial Resolution Thermal Remote Sensing of the Urban Heat Island Effect: Assessment of Risks to Human Health and Development of Mitigation Strategies for Sustainable Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Rickman, Douglas L.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Laymon, Charles A.; Crosson, William; Howell, Burgess F.; Gillani, Noor V.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and in areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80% of the world's population will live in cities. One of the more egregious side effects of urbanization is the deterioration in air quality as a result of increased vehicular traffic, industrialization and related activities. In the United States alone, under the more stringent air quality guidelines established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1997, nearly 300 counties in 34 states will not meet the new air quality standards for ground level ozone. The mitigation of one the physical/environmental characteristics of urbanization known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect, is now being looked at more closely as a possible way to bring down ground level ozone levels in cities and assist states in improving air quality. The UHI results from the replacement of "natural" land covers (e.g., trees, grass) with urban land surface types, such as pavement and buildings. Heat stored in these surfaces is released into the air and results in a "dome" of elevated air temperatures that presides over cities. The effect of this dome of elevated air temperatures is known as the UHI, which is most prevalent about 2-3 hours after sunset on days with intense solar radiation and calm winds. Given the local and regional impacts of the UHI, there are significant potential affects on human health, particularly as related to heat stress and ozone on body temperature regulation and on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. In this study we are using airborne and satellite remote sensing data to analyze how differences in the urban landscape influence or drive the development of the UHI over four U.S. cities. Additionally, we are assessing what the potential impact is on risks to human health, and developing mitigation strategies to make urban areas more environmentally sustainable.

  15. Measurement of risk of sexual violence through phallometric testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howes, Richard J

    2009-04-01

    The use of phallometric testing to determine risk of sexual violence is becoming more widely recognized throughout the world. This technique involves the precise measurement of circumferential change in the penis from flaccidity to erection in response to both 'normal' and deviant sexual stimuli. Phallometric testing is the only pure measure of sexual arousal, and unlike other physiological measures such as heart rate and GSR it is not influenced by arousal states such as fear and anger. The current published research compares the phallometric testing profiles of incarcerated sexual offenders with those of incarcerated nonsexual offenders. Specifically, the sexual arousal of 100 convicted rapists, pedophiles, and nonsexual offenders is examined. This research identifies what differentiates these groups and what best predicts risk of sexual aggression. Implications of these results include the possibility of using phallometric testing as a screening tool for those who work with vulnerable populations (e.g., child care workers, teachers). The principal benefit of phallometric testing, however, lies in the identification of those incarcerated men who are at greatest risk to sexually reoffend and who should thus be denied release from jail. PMID:19362036

  16. Integrated assessment of climate catastrophes with endogenous uncertainty: Does the risk of ice sheet collapse justify precautionary mitigation?

    OpenAIRE

    Diaz, Delavane B.

    2015-01-01

    Greenhouse gas policies confront the trade-off between the costs of reducing emissions and the benefits of avoided climate change. The risk of uncertain and potentially irreversible catastrophes is an important issue related to the latter, and one that has not yet been well incorporated into economic models for climate change policy analysis. This paper demonstrates a multistage stochastic programming framework for catastrophe modeling with endogenous uncertainty, applied to a benchmark integ...

  17. Application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to mitigate operating and maintenance cost increases for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Operating nuclear power generation facilities face increased pressure from state utility commissions to improve the cost effectiveness of operations and maintenance programs. Some costs are not allowed for inclusion in the current rate base and represent an operating loss to the utility. State regulators seem more willing to use operating and maintenance cost comparisons of competing technologies, such as existing fossil and cogeneration facilities. In contrast to these pressures are the requirements applied by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to improve the ''quality'' of operations. The NRC, as a regulator, sometimes uses conflicting parameters to judge the effectiveness of operations, and often issues regulations that significantly impact operating costs. As Individual Plant Examinations (IPEs) are completed and submitted to the NRC for review, numerous additional opportunities exist for application of PRA methodology and plant specific results to address the risk impact of recent regulations. Quadrex Corporation is currently performing research for the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) to investigate the application of risk analysis to improve the cost effectiveness of operations and maintenance programs for nuclear plants. The project is being performed with the cooperation of two participating utilities. The focus of the investigation is the use of the plant specific risk analysis to improve the cost effectiveness of efforts associated with utility response to NRC Generic Letter 89-10; a program that can significantly increase the requirements for motor-operated valve testing and surveillance programs. (author). 11 refs, 1 tab

  18. Application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to mitigate operating and maintenance cost increases for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Operating nuclear power generation facilities face increased pressure from state utility commissions to improve the cost effectiveness of operations and maintenance programs. Some costs are not allowed for inclusion in the current rate base and represent an operating loss to the utility. State regulators seem more willing to use operating and maintenance cost comparisons of competing technologies, such as existing fossil and cogeneration facilities. In contrast to these pressures are the requirements applied by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to improve the ''quality'' of operations. The NRC, as a regulator, sometimes uses conflicting parameters to judge the effectiveness of operations, and often issues regulations that significantly impact operating costs. As Individual Plant Examinations (IPEs) are completed and submitted to the NRC for review, numerous additional opportunities exist for application of PRA methodology and plant specific results to address the risk impact of recent regulations. Quadrex Corporation is currently performing research for the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) to investigate the application of risk analysis to improve the cost effectiveness of operations and maintenance programs for nuclear plants. The project is being performed with the cooperation of two participating utilities. The focus of the investigation is the use of the plant specific risk analysis to improve the cost effectiveness of efforts associated with utility response to NRC Generic Letter 89-10; a program that can significantly increase the requirements for motor-operated valve testing and surveillance programs

  19. The role of PIXE in the AIRUSE project "testing and development of air quality mitigation measures in Southern Europe"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucarelli, F.; Chiari, M.; Calzolai, G.; Giannoni, M.; Nava, S.; Udisti, R.; Severi, M.; Querol, X.; Amato, F.; Alves, C.; Eleftheriadis, K.

    2015-11-01

    The European AIRUSE LIFE+ project aims at testing existing and future mitigation measures and developing new strategies for the improvement of air quality in Southern European countries. The project involves public and private institutions of Spain, UK, Portugal, Italy and Greece. PM10 and PM2.5 daily samplings have been scheduled for one year (from January 2013) in four urban sites, Barcelona (Spain), Porto (Portugal), Athens (Greece), and Florence (Italy). The daily data set gives an overall representative picture of the PM composition in these urban sites. The project includes also samplings with hourly resolution for limited periods. Hourly samples give an easier identification of the different aerosol sources due to the capability of tracking rapid changes as the ones occurring in many particulate emissions as well as in atmospheric transport and dilution processes. The role of PIXE technique within the project has been described in this paper. The comparison of data obtained by different techniques (e.g. PIXE, IC and ICP) assured a quality assurance control on the huge quantity of data obtained in the project. PIXE data together with those obtained by other analytical techniques have been used to reconstruct the average aerosol chemical composition and in Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) analysis to determine the aerosol sources and their impact on PM10 and PM2.5 mass. In particular the high sensitivity of PIXE for all the crustal elements (including Si which is not easily detected by ICP) allows the direct determination of the Saharan dust contribution. Finally, the 1-h resolution data, which can be obtained only by PIXE, confirmed and reinforced the identification of the aerosol sources obtained by the daily concentrations.

  20. The German contribution to the global forest policy. Analysis and evaluation of the engagement for biodiversity conservation and mitigation measures climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The booklet on the German contribution to the global forest policy covers with analysis and evaluation of the engagement for biodiversity conservation and mitigation measures climatic change. The analysis is based on expert interviews; the theoretical background is the conception on society by Niklas Lehmann. The evaluation includes the issues of allocation of public goods, the improvement of public participation, and improvement of financing resources.

  1. Minimising Mortality in Endangered Raptors Due to Power Lines: The Importance of Spatial Aggregation to Optimize the Application of Mitigation Measures

    OpenAIRE

    Guil, Francisco; Fernández-Olalla, Mariana; Moreno-Opo, Rubén; Mosqueda, Ignacio; Gómez, María Elena; Aranda, Antonio; Arredondo, Ángel; Guzmán, José; Oria, Javier; González, Luis Mariano; Margalida, Antoni

    2011-01-01

    Electrocution by power lines is one of the main causes of non-natural mortality in birds of prey. In an area in central Spain, we surveyed 6304 pylons from 333 power lines to determine electrocution rates, environmental and design factors that may influence electrocution and the efficacy of mitigation measures used to minimise electrocution cases. A total of 952 electrocuted raptors, representing 14 different species, were observed. Electrocuted raptors were concentrated in certain areas and ...

  2. Indoor radon mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The action limit for indoor radon concentration in Finnish dwellings is 400 Bq/m3 which is exceeded in 50.000 dwellings. In these dwellings indoor radon mitigation is needed. The most important reason for high concentration is the soil air with high radon concentrations that flows into living spaces through openings and gaps in the building foundation. Slab on-ground is the most prevalent type of foundation in Finnish single family houses. Without preventive measures, this type of foundation promotes the flow of radon-bearing soil air into living spaces. In the second popular foundation type, hill-side houses, the flow of soil air through the walls backing soil still increases radon leakages. The key aim of indoor radon mitigation is to prevent or decrease the harmful flows of radon-bearing soil air into dwellings. This guide gives the basic information on Finnish regulations on indoor radon, leakage routes, effect of air exchange and underpressure as well as pre-mitigation studies of houses. The results on the efficiency of various mitigation methods are based on a questionnaire study in 400 Finnish dwellings and on-site studies in numerous houses. In the case of sub-slab-suction the Finnish guide published by the Ministry of Environment has also been utilized. Best mitigation efficiency has been achieved using sub-slab-suction and radon well. Typical reduction factors for both methods are 70-90%, and the best results are above 95%. Sub-slab-suction can be implemented through both floor slab and foundation wall. An exhaust fan coupled to suction pit and exhaust piping creates underpressure and ventilation beneath the slab. In case of a radon well an exhaust fan sucks air from the soil and ventilates the soil air volume through a well construction placed outside the house. The depth of a radon well is 3-5 metres. A single radon well can reduce radon concentration in many dwellings at the distance up to 20-30 metres. Mitigation work based on ventilation aims at increasing the air exchange or reduction of the underpressure or both. Typical reduction factors are 10-40%. The reduction factors exceed 50% only in rare cases when the initial air exchange has been low or the underpressure level has been high. Sealing of entry routes aims at reduction of leakage flow of radon-bearing soil air into living spaces. Typical reduction factors with this method are 10-50%. Both ventilation-based measures and sealing work can also be used for improvement of the efficiency of sub-slab-suction or radon well. In radon mitigation of apartments in the bottom floor with floor slab in ground contact, high underpressure levels increase indoor radon concentration and, in addition reduce the efficiency of sub-slab-suction or radon well. In this case the mitigation should be enhanced through installation of fresh air vents. Similarly, sealing may be needed to improve the efficiency. The efficiency of mitigation using only sealing measures has exceeded 50% only in rare cases. The guide gives also a brief overview on radon mitigation at workplaces and in big buildings and on radon prevention in new buildings. The reference limit for design and construction of new buildings is 200 Bq/m3. The number of houses exceeding this limit is 200.000 in Finland. Preventive measures should be taken in all buildings in the whole country in order to avoid new dwellings that need mitigation. This guide presents many practical examples on mitigation work, and it is intended for the use of both construction companies and do-it-yourself mitigators. (orig.)

  3. Indoor radon mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The action limit for indoor radon concentration in Finnish dwellings is 400 Bq/m3 which is exceeded in 50.000 dwellings. In these dwellings indoor radon mitigation is needed. The most important reason for high concentration is the soil air with high radon concentrations that flows into living spaces through openings and gaps in the building foundation. Slab on ground is the most prevalent type of foundation in Finnish single family houses. Without preventive measures, this type of foundation promotes the flow of radon-bearing soil air into living spaces. In the second popular foundation type, semi-basement houses, the flow of soil air through the walls in contact with soil still increases radon leakages. The key aim of indoor radon mitigation is to prevent or decrease the harmful flows of radon-bearing soil air into dwellings. This guide gives the basic information on Finnish regulations on indoor radon, leakage routes, effect of air exchange and under-pressure as well as pre-mitigation studies of houses. The results on the efficiency of various mitigation methods are based on a questionnaire study in 400 Finnish dwellings and on-site studies in numerous houses. In the case of sub slab suction, the Finnish guide published by the Ministry of Environment has also been utilized. Best mitigation efficiency has been achieved using sub slab suction and radon well. Typical indoor radon reduction factors for both methods are 70 - 90%, and the best results are above 95%. Sub slab suction can be implemented through both floor slab and foundation wall. An exhaust fan coupled to suction pit and exhaust piping creates underpressure and ventilation beneath the slab. In case of a radon well an exhaust fan sucks air from the soil and ventilates the soil air volume through a well construction placed outside the house. The depth of a radon well is 4 - 5 metres. A single radon well can reduce radon concentration in many dwellings at the distance up to 20 - 30 metres. Mitigation work based on ventilation aims at increasing the air exchange or reduction of the underpressure or both. Typical reduction factors are 10 - 40%. The reduction factors exceed 50% only in rare cases when the initial air exchange has been low or the underpressure level has been high. Sealing of entry routes aims at reduction of leakage flow of radonbearing soil air into living spaces. Typical reduction factors with this method are 10 - 50%. Both ventilation-based measures and sealing work can also be used for improvement of the efficiency of sub-slab-suction or radon well. In radon mitigation of apartments in the bottom floor with slab on ground, high underpressure levels increase indoor radon concentration and, in addition reduce the efficiency of sub-slab-suction or radon well. In this case the mitigation should be enhanced through installation of fresh air vents. Similarly, sealing may be needed to improve the efficiency. The efficiency of mitigation using only sealing measures has exceeded 50% only in rare cases. The guide gives also a brief overview on radon mitigation at workplaces and in big buildings and on radon prevention in new buildings. The reference limit for design and construction of new buildings is 200 Bq/m3. The number of houses exceeding this limit is 200.000 in Finland. Preventive measures should be taken in all buildings in the whole country in order to avoid new dwellings that need mitigation. This guide presents many practical examples on mitigation work, and it is intended to be used by both professionals in construction companies and by do-it-yourself mitigators. (orig.)

  4. Estimating relative risk of within-lake aquatic plant invasion using combined measures of recreational boater movement and habitat suitability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marion E. Wittmann

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Effective monitoring, prevention and impact mitigation of nonindigenous aquatic species relies upon the ability to predict dispersal pathways and receiving habitats with the greatest risk of establishment. To examine mechanisms affecting species establishment within a large lake, we combined observations of recreational boater movements with empirical measurements of habitat suitability represented by nearshore wave energy to assess the relative risk of Eurasian watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum establishment. The model was evaluated using information from a 17 year (1995–2012 sequence of M. spicatum presence and absence monitoring. M. spicatum presence was not specifically correlated with recreational boater movements; however its establishment appears to be limited by wave action in Lake Tahoe. Of the sites in the “High” establishment risk category (n = 37, 54% had current or historical infestations, which included 8 of the 10 sites with the highest relative risk. Of the 11 sites in the “Medium” establishment risk category, 5 had current or historical M. spicatum populations. Most (76% of the sites in the “Low” establishment risk category were observed in locations with higher wave action. Four sites that received zero boater visits from infested locations were occupied by M. spicatum. This suggests that the boater survey either represents incomplete coverage of boater movement, or other processes, such as the movement of propagules by surface currents or introductions from external sources are important to the establishment of this species. This study showed the combination of habitat specific and dispersal data in a relative risk framework can potentially reduce uncertainty in estimates of invasion risk.

  5. Optimisation and Implementation of the R2E Shielding and Relocation Mitigation Measures at the LHC during the LS1

    CERN Document Server

    Perrot, A L; Barberan Marin, M; Brugger, M; Corso, J P; Foraz, K; Jeckel, M; Lazzaroni, M; Lefort, B; Mikulec, B; Muttoni, Y

    2014-01-01

    In the framework of the Radiation to Electronics (R2E) project, important mitigation actions are being implemented in the LHC during the first Long Shutdown (LS1) to reduce the Single Event Error (SEE) occurrence in standard electronics present in much of the equipment installed in the LHC underground areas. Recent simulations have motivated additional actions to be performed in Point 4, in addition to those already scheduled in Points 1, 5, 7 and 8. This paper presents the organisation process carried out during LS1 to optimise the implementation of the R2E mitigation activities. It reports the challenges linked to civil engineering and to safe room relocation in Points 5 and 7. It highlights the reactivity needed to face the new mitigation requirements to be implemented in Point 4 before the end of LS1. It presents the advancement status of the R2E mitigation activities in the different LHC points with the main concerns and impact with the overall LHC LS1 planning.

  6. Implications of climate mitigation for future agricultural production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schmid, Erwin

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate ?81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many food insecure countries.

  7. Hawaiian cultural influences on support for lava flow hazard mitigation measures during the January 1960 eruption of K?lauea volcano, Kapoho, Hawai‘i

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Chris E.; Houghton, B.F.; Paton, Douglas; Swanson, D.A.; Lachman, R.; Bonk, W.J.

    2008-01-01

    In 1960, K?lauea volcano in Hawaii erupted, destroying most of the village of Kapoho and forcing evacuation of its approximately 300 residents. A large and unprecedented social science survey was undertaken during the eruption to develop an understanding of human behavior, beliefs, and coping strategies among the adult evacuees (n = 160). Identical studies were also performed in three control towns located at varying distances from the eruption site (n = 478). During these studies data were collected that characterized ethnic grouping and attitudes toward Hawaiian cultural issues such as belief in Pele and two lava flow mitigation measures—use of barriers and bombs to influence the flow of lava, but the data were never published. Using these forgotten data, we examined the relationship between Hawaiian cultural issues and attitudes toward the use of barriers and bombs as mitigation strategies to protect Kapoho.

  8. Measuring Value at Risk for Mortgage Backed Securities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Svend

    1996-01-01

    This paper investigates the computation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) measures for mortgage backed securities (MBSs) using data for the Danish MBS market. The current RiskMetrics proposal from J.P. Morgan is used as a reference point throughout, but the study diverge somewhat from their proposal, especially with respect to the estimation of zero coupon yield curves as well as in the choice of mapping techniques. The MBS-valuation is done by a model developed in Jakobsen(1992,1994), which includes burn-out effects without the need for Monte Carlo simulation. The mapping of deltaequivalent cash flows uses the mapping technique proposed by Ho(1992). The resulting procedure can be employed even for large portfolios of MBS issues with the use of standard computing equipment. The paper compares the MBS VaR estimates for a daily horizon to actual profits and losses for the period January 1993 to March 1995. The results seem to indicate that our method underestimates the variance of actual returns. However, as discussed in the paper this might be due to the fact that the correlation structure of zero coupon rates was estimated without any a priory restrictions. A study which uses the correlations provided in the RiskMetrics dataset might yield better results.

  9. Response of current phosphorus mitigation measures across the nutrient transfer continuum in two hydrological contrasting agricultural catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Noeleen; Shore, Mairead; Mellander, Per-Erik; Shortle, Ger; Jordan, Phil

    2015-04-01

    Effective assessment of National Action Programme (NAP) measures introduced under the EU Nitrates Directive (ND), to manage nutrient use and risk of loss to waters from agriculture, is best achieved when examined across the nutrient transfer continuum at catchment scale. The Irish NAP measures are implemented on a whole-territory basis for both nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), with P being the key trophic pressure. The aim of this research was to observe the efficacy of P regulation measures and P source management across the transfer continuum and resultant water quality status (i.e. source to impact), in two contrasting agricultural catchments over a four year period. The catchments are ca. 11 km2 and are located in the south-east of Ireland. One is well-drained and arable dominated, while the other is mostly poorly-drained and grassland dominated. In 2009 and 2013 soil surveys for plant-available P were carried out (delivery. In the arable catchment total reactive P (TRP) concentrations in interpreted pathways declined across the quickflow, interflow and shallow groundwater of the slowflow, while TRP concentrations in the deeper groundwater, mostly contributing to baseflow, remained the same. However, the complexity of the flow pathways in the grassland catchment made it difficult to determine any trends in P concentrations as a result of changes in P source pressures. Additionally, although there were some inter annual trends, there was no clear indication of improvement in the ecological quality status in either catchment. Overall, a positive response to NAP measures (high soil P declines) was more clearly observable in the source component of the P transfer continuum for both catchments over the study period. This highlights the careful balance required for consideration between lag-time (policy implementation and water quality response) and agronomic sustainability (soil P fertility) in agricultural catchments.

  10. Instrument Development Sports Risk Management Practice Using Rasch Measurement Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad bin Esa

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Instruments Sports Risk Management Practices (APRS was constructed to identify risk management practicesamong coaches IPG sports in Malaysia. This study was conducted to prove the validity and reliability of APRSby building Rasch model. The respondents comprised of coaches and athletes IPG which represents IPGMs theGames Institute for Higher Education 2013. Validity and reliability of the questionnaire were measured usingWinsteps software version 3.69.1.11. The results showed that the reliability index for the item and therespondents are respectively 0.75 and 0.99. In terms of polarity, each item is capable of measuring APRS coachwith the Institute of Teacher Education Malaysia PTMEA CORR value between 0.15 to 0.85. Incompatibilitytest items showed no item should be dropped because the outfit mean-square value is in the range of 0.6 to 1.4and test unidimensionality shows the standardized residual variance was 50.9%, equivalent to the model of 50.9%with the largest secondary dimension in contrast to the first record variance of 5.6 %. APRS capable ofmeasuring constructs built the identification, evaluation, selection and implementation of operations.

  11. Mid/Long-Term Action Plan to Mitigate SEE related Risks at the LHC (and required actions)

    CERN Document Server

    Brugger, M; Kramer, Daniel; Losito, R; Myers, S; Perrot, A L; Pojer, M; Røed, K; Roesler, S; Solfaroli, M; Vergara, A; Weisz, S; Wijnands, T; Zanetti, M

    2009-01-01

    Modifications of the LHC schedule and the needed planning for future shutdowns requires an approach compatible with all operational scenarios in order to reduce the failures due to SEE around the machine. The R2E study group recommends a list of short-term actions, to plan, analyse and prepare mid/long-term activities and to assign additional resources. The aim is to maximize the use of available time slots and to allow for a coherent decision on mid/long-term actions to be taken in 2009/10. This decision might be required before measurements during early operation and ongoing radiation tests can allow for a complete analysis of the situation. It is important to note, that the detailed review and analysis of equipments and areas, as well as early measurements and continued radiation tests remain important requirements to be able to make the appropriate future decisions in the coming year(s). The aim of the following approach is to keep during the coming months as many options open as possible and have as many...

  12. The Measure and Control of Enterprise Marketing Risk in the E-business Environment

    OpenAIRE

    Lingbing Hu; Baoyin Zhang; Yu Wu

    2009-01-01

    In this article, through analyzing the change of enterprise marketing mode and the characters of marketing risk in the e-business environment, we establish the 3D embedded random measure model which suits for the e-business enterprise marketing risk, define the combination rules of the risk index system of this model, establish the theoretical base to measure the marketing risk for e-business enterprises, and analyze the warning and control of enterprise marketing risk under the model.

  13. Measuring and handling risk : How different financial institutions face the same problem

    OpenAIRE

    Rörden, Sarah; Wille, Kristofer

    2010-01-01

    Title: Measuring and handling risk - How different financial institutions face the same problem Seminar date: 4th of June, 2010   Level: Bachelor thesis in Business Administration, Basic level 300, 15 ECTS Authors: Sarah Rörden and Kristofer Wille Supervisor: Angelina Sundström Subject terms: Risk variables, Risk measurement, Risk management, Modern Portfolio Theory, Diversification, Beta Target group: Everyone who has basic knowledge of financial theories and risk principles but lacks the un...

  14. Evaluating the RiskMetrics Methodology in Measuring Volatility and Value-at-Risk in Financial Markets

    CERN Document Server

    Pafka, S; Pafka, Szilard; Kondor, Imre

    2001-01-01

    We analyze the performance of RiskMetrics, a widely used methodology for measuring market risk. Based on the assumption of normally distributed returns, the RiskMetrics model completely ignores the presence of fat tails in the distribution function, which is an important feature of financial data. Nevertheless, it was commonly found that RiskMetrics performs satisfactorily well, and therefore the technique has become widely used in the financial industry. We find, however, that the success of RiskMetrics is the artifact of the choice of the risk measure. First, the outstanding performance of volatility estimates is basically due to the choice of a very short (one-period ahead) forecasting horizon. Second, the satisfactory performance in obtaining Value-at-Risk by simply multiplying volatility with a constant factor is mainly due to the choice of the particular significance level.

  15. Measuring market liquidity risk - which model works best?

    OpenAIRE

    Ernst, Cornelia; Stange, Sebastian; Kaserer, Christoph

    2009-01-01

    Market liquidity risk, the difficulty or cost of trading assets in crises, has been recognized as an important factor in risk management. Literature has already proposed several models to include liquidity risk in the standard Value-at-Risk framework. While theoretical comparisons between those models have been conducted, their empirical performance has never been benchmarked. This paper performs comparative back-tests of daily risk forecasts for a large selection of traceable liquidity risk ...

  16. Measurement and Control of Operational Risk of Banking Industry based on Complex Network

    OpenAIRE

    Xiaoling Hao; Songqiao Han

    2014-01-01

    Operational risk has been great challenges of commercial banks and financial institutions since losses caused by operational risk have been significantly greater than ever before. In order to control and manage operational risk better?clear awareness of the operational risk conduction mechanism is helpful to further understand the whole dynamic process of the risks affecting the business. Traditional researches focus on the method to measure the risk more accurately, but few studies took into...

  17. Speciated arsenic in air: measurement methodology and risk assessment considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Ari S; Reid, Kim R; Pollock, Margaret C; Campleman, Sharan L

    2012-01-01

    Accurate measurement of arsenic (As) in air is critical to providing a more robust understanding of arsenic exposures and associated human health risks. Although there is extensive information available on total arsenic in air, less is known on the relative contribution of each arsenic species. To address this data gap, the authors conducted an in-depth review of available information on speciated arsenic in air. The evaluation included the type of species measured and the relative abundance, as well as an analysis of the limitations of current analytical methods. Despite inherent differences in the procedures, most techniques effectively separated arsenic species in the air samples. Common analytical techniques such as inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and/or hydride generation (HG)- or quartz furnace (GF)-atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS) were used for arsenic measurement in the extracts, and provided some of the most sensitive detection limits. The current analysis demonstrated that, despite limited comparability among studies due to differences in seasonal factors, study duration, sample collection methods, and analytical methods, research conducted to date is adequate to show that arsenic in air is mainly in the inorganic form. Reported average concentrations of As(III) and As(V) ranged up to 7.4 and 10.4 ng/m3, respectively, with As(V) being more prevalent than As(III) in most studies. Concentrations of the organic methylated arsenic compounds are negligible (in the pg/m3 range). However because of the variability in study methods and measurement methodology, the authors were unable to determine the variation in arsenic composition as a function of source or particulate matter (PM) fraction. In this work, the authors include the implications of arsenic speciation in air on potential exposure and risks. The authors conclude that it is important to synchronize sample collection, preparation, and analytical techniques in order to generate data more useful for arsenic inhalation risk assessment, and a more robust documentation of quality assurance/quality control (QA/QC) protocols is necessary to ensure accuracy, precision, representativeness, and comparability. PMID:22393805

  18. Measurement and Control of Operational Risk of Banking Industry based on Complex Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoling Hao

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Operational risk has been great challenges of commercial banks and financial institutions since losses caused by operational risk have been significantly greater than ever before. In order to control and manage operational risk better?clear awareness of the operational risk conduction mechanism is helpful to further understand the whole dynamic process of the risks affecting the business. Traditional researches focus on the method to measure the risk more accurately, but few studies took into account the conduction mechanism of operational risk. This paper constructs operational risk network to simulate the contagion process of operational risk and put forward new measurement model based on complex network. First, properties of the operational risk network is analyzed, and risk spreading process in the network is described. Then, a load model is established to explain the conduction mechanism of operational risk factors. Next, a new measurement method of operational risk based on BA model is presented to make Monte Carlo simulation and calculate the amount of operational risk losses in the operational risk network. Also, this model is used to simulate the affecting factors in the operational risk network. The simulation results show that the degree of operational risk network as well as the selection of initial node plays an important role on losses, and thus some control recommendations based on the simulation results is given. Finally, a framework of operational risk management system is designed to apply this research result into practice.

  19. What Is the Best Risk Measure in Practice? A Comparison of Standard Measures

    OpenAIRE

    Emmer, Suzanne; Kratz, Marie; Tasche, Dirk

    2013-01-01

    Expected Shortfall (ES) has been widely accepted as a risk measure that is conceptually superior to Value-at-Risk (VaR). At the same time, however, it has been criticised for issues relating to backtesting. In particular, ES has been found not to be elicitable which means that backtesting for ES is less straightforward than, e.g., backtesting for VaR. Expectiles have been suggested as potentially better alternatives to both ES and VaR. In this paper, we revisit commonly acce...

  20. IFKIS a basis for organizational measures in avalanche risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bründl, M.; Etter, H.-J.; Klingler, Ch.; Steiniger, M.; Rhyner, J.; Ammann, W.

    2003-04-01

    The avalanche winter 1999 in Switzerland showed that the combination of protection measures like avalanche barriers, hazard zone mapping, artificial avalanche release and organisational measures (closure of roads, evacuation etc.) proved to perform well. However, education as well as information and communication between the involved organizations proved to be a weak link in the crisis management. In the first part of the project IFKIS we developed a modular education and training course program for security responsibles of settlements and roads. In the second part an information system was developed which improves on the one hand the information fluxes between the national center for avalanche forecasting, the Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, and the local forecasters. On the other hand the communication between the avalanche security services in the communities can be enhanced. During the last two years an information system based on Internet technology has been developed for this purpose. This system allows the transmission of measured data and observations to a central database at SLF and visualization of the data for different users. It also provides the possibility to exchange information on organizational measures like closure of roads, artificial avalanche release etc. on a local and regional scale. This improves the information fluxes and the coordination of safety-measures because all users, although at different places, are on the same information level. Inconsistent safety-measures can be avoided and information and communication concerning avalanche safety becomes much more transparent for all persons involved in hazard management. The training program as well the concept for the information-system are important basics for an efficient avalanche risk management but also for other natural processes and catastrophes.

  1. Real-Time Earthquake Risk Mitigation Of Infrastructures Using Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Response Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulfikar, Can; Pinar, Ali; Tunc, Suleyman; Erdik, Mustafa

    2014-05-01

    The Istanbul EEW network consisting of 10 inland and 5 OBS strong motion stations located close to the Main Marmara Fault zone is operated by KOERI. Data transmission between the remote stations and the base station at KOERI is provided both with satellite and fiber optic cable systems. The continuous on-line data from these stations is used to provide real time warning for emerging potentially disastrous earthquakes. The data transmission time from the remote stations to the KOERI data center is a few milliseconds through fiber optic lines and less than a second via satellites. The early warning signal (consisting three alarm levels) is communicated to the appropriate servo shut-down systems of the receipent facilities, that automatically decide proper action based on the alarm level. Istanbul Gas Distribution Corporation (IGDAS) is one of the end users of the EEW signal. IGDAS, the primary natural gas provider in Istanbul, operates an extensive system 9,867 km of gas lines with 550 district regulators and 474,000 service boxes. State of-the-art protection systems automatically cut natural gas flow when breaks in the pipelines are detected. Since 2005, buildings in Istanbul using natural gas are required to install seismometers that automatically cut natural gas flow when certain thresholds are exceeded. IGDAS uses a sophisticated SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) system to monitor the state-of-health of its pipeline network. This system provides real-time information about quantities related to pipeline monitoring, including input-output pressure, drawing information, positions of station and RTU (remote terminal unit) gates, slum shut mechanism status at 581 district regulator sites. The SCADA system of IGDA? receives the EEW signal from KOERI and decide the proper actions according to the previously specified ground acceleration levels. Presently, KOERI sends EEW signal to the SCADA system of IGDAS Natural Gas Network of Istanbul. The EEW signal of KOERI is also transmitted to the serve shut down system of the Marmaray Rail Tube Tunnel and Commuter Rail Mass Transit System in Istanbul. The Marmaray system includes an undersea railway tunnel under the Bosphorus Strait. Several strong motion instruments are installed within the tunnel for taking measurements against strong ground shaking and early warning purposes. This system is integrated with the KOERI EEW System. KOERI sends the EEW signal to the command center of Marmaray. Having received the signal, the command center put into action the previously defined measurements. For example, the trains within the tunnel will be stopped at the nearest station, no access to the tunnel will be allowed to the trains approaching the tunnel, water protective caps will be closed to protect flood closing the connection between the onshore and offshore tunnels.

  2. Measuring adolescents' exposure to victimization: The Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Helen L; Caspi, Avshalom; Moffitt, Terrie E; Wertz, Jasmin; Gray, Rebecca; Newbury, Joanne; Ambler, Antony; Zavos, Helena; Danese, Andrea; Mill, Jonathan; Odgers, Candice L; Pariante, Carmine; Wong, Chloe C Y; Arseneault, Louise

    2015-11-01

    This paper presents multilevel findings on adolescents' victimization exposure from a large longitudinal cohort of twins. Data were obtained from the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study, an epidemiological study of 2,232 children (1,116 twin pairs) followed to 18 years of age (with 93% retention). To assess adolescent victimization, we combined best practices in survey research on victimization with optimal approaches to measuring life stress and traumatic experiences, and introduce a reliable system for coding severity of victimization. One in three children experienced at least one type of severe victimization during adolescence (crime victimization, peer/sibling victimization, Internet/mobile phone victimization, sexual victimization, family violence, maltreatment, or neglect), and most types of victimization were more prevalent among children from low socioeconomic backgrounds. Exposure to multiple victimization types was common, as was revictimization; over half of those physically maltreated in childhood were also exposed to severe physical violence in adolescence. Biometric twin analyses revealed that environmental factors had the greatest influence on most types of victimization, while severe physical maltreatment from caregivers during adolescence was predominantly influenced by heritable factors. The findings from this study showcase how distinct levels of victimization measurement can be harmonized in large-scale studies of health and development. PMID:26535933

  3. Body sway measurement for fall risk assessment using inexpensive webcams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fang; Skubic, Marjorie; Abbott, Carmen; Keller, James M

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we present a method for extracting body sway parameters from a three-dimensional voxel reconstruction, which is built using silhouettes captured from two calibrated web camera views. The results were validated with a Vicon motion capture system. Experiments were conducted in which subjects stand and sway in the anterior-posterior direction and then in the lateral directions with two different frequencies. In addition, experiments were also conducted where subjects walked in a straight path at different speeds. Through the experiment, the Vicon cameras recorded the motion of reflective markers attached to subjects, and our two calibrated cameras captured the images. Good agreement was found with our system compared to the Vicon results, given the limitation of voxel space resolution and frame rate. The development of this technology provides potential capability of measuring body sway in daily living environment for elderly people, and can be used as part of a balance, stability and fall risk assessment tool. PMID:21095692

  4. 75 FR 32900 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Sweet Limes From Mexico...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-10

    ...APHIS-2010-0058] Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Sweet...advising the public that we have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks...measures will be sufficient to mitigate the pest risk. We are making the pest risk...

  5. 75 FR 34422 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Mango Fruit From...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-17

    ...APHIS-2010-0065] Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh...advising the public that we have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks...measures will be sufficient to mitigate the pest risk. We are making the pest risk...

  6. Mitigation of indirect environmental effects of GM crops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pidgeon, J D; May, M J; Perry, J N; Poppy, G M

    2007-06-22

    Currently, the UK has no procedure for the approval of novel agricultural practices that is based on environmental risk management principles. Here, we make a first application of the 'bow-tie' risk management approach in agriculture, for assessment of land use changes, in a case study of the introduction of genetically modified herbicide tolerant (GMHT) sugar beet. There are agronomic and economic benefits, but indirect environmental harm from increased weed control is a hazard. The Farm Scale Evaluation (FSE) trials demonstrated reduced broad-leaved weed biomass and seed production at the field scale. The simplest mitigation measure is to leave a proportion of rows unsprayed in each GMHT crop field. Our calculations, based on FSE data, show that a maximum of 2% of field area left unsprayed is required to mitigate weed seed production and 4% to mitigate weed biomass production. Tilled margin effects could simply be mitigated by increasing the margin width from 0.5 to 1.5 m. Such changes are cheap and simple to implement in farming practices. This case study demonstrates the usefulness of the bow-tie risk management approach and the transparency with which hazards can be addressed. If adopted generally, it would help to enable agriculture to adopt new practices with due environmental precaution. PMID:17439853

  7. Comprehensive quality assurance study of radon measurements developed under the Air Force Radon Assessment and Mitigation Program (RAMP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Air Force Radon Assessment and Mitigation Program (RAMP) is a comprehensive, ongoing program to assess the occurrence, concentration, and potential health hazards of radon at Air Force facilities worldwide. During the current detailed assessment phase of RAMP, several tens of thousands of alpha track detectors have been purchased and deployed for one year in Air Force structures worldwide. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of quality assurance results for RAMP based on analysis of detectors that have been exposed to known laboratory concentrations of radon or have been collocated in Air Force buildings. The purpose of this analysis is to tighten the required 95% structures from unnecessary and costly remediation

  8. Measuring injury risk factors: question reliability in a statewide sample

    OpenAIRE

    Koziol-McLain, J; Brand, D; Morgan, D; Leff, M.; Lowenstein, S.

    2000-01-01

    Background—Recently (1996–98), Colorado added 15 questions pertaining to injury related risks and behaviors to the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (BRFSS). Questions addressed bicycle helmet use, traffic crashes, exposure to violence, suicidal behavior, and gun storage.

  9. Nuclear risk reduction measures in South Asia: problems and prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The last couple of years have brought significant changes in the relations between India and Pakistan. At the political level these include: the meeting of Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and President Pervez Musharraf in Islamabad in January 2004 and their readiness to revive the framework of contacts between India and Pakistan that was suspended following the crisis in 2001-2; the assumption of power by the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in May 2004 and its determination to continue the peace process initiated by the previous government; and the meeting between the new Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and General Pervez Musharraf in New York in September 2004, in New Delhi in April 2005 and again in New York in September 2005. Changes at the nuclear level have also been notable as evidenced in the several rounds of Indo-Pakistani expert level talks on Nuclear Confidence Building Measures held since 2004. The joint statement released after the second meeting of Islamabad in 2004 reiterated their commitment 'to keep working towards elaboration and implementation of nuclear confidence building measures within the agreed framework of the Lahore MoU of 1999 and the Joint Statement of 20 June 2004'. Despite these changes, however, the risk of intentional, accidental and unauthorized use of nuclear weapons remain a serious concern

  10. Eye-Tracking Measurements of Language Processing: Developmental Differences in Children at High Risk for ASD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chita-Tegmark, Meia; Arunachalam, Sudha; Nelson, Charles A; Tager-Flusberg, Helen

    2015-10-01

    To explore how being at high risk for autism spectrum disorder (ASD), based on having an older sibling diagnosed with ASD, affects word comprehension and language processing speed, 18-, 24- and 36-month-old children, at high and low risk for ASD were tested in a cross- sectional study, on an eye gaze measure of receptive language that measured how accurately and rapidly the children looked at named target images. There were no significant differences between the high risk ASD group and the low risk control group of 18- and 24-month-olds. However, 36-month-olds in the high risk for ASD group performed significantly worse on the accuracy measure, but not on the speed measure. We propose that the language processing efficiency of the high risk group is not compromised, but other vocabulary acquisition factors might have lead to the high risk 36-month-olds to comprehend significantly fewer nouns on our measure. PMID:26109246

  11. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  12. Survey for the advertising effectiveness measurement of the website 'risk information navigator' and the risk message materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk communication activities are important for promoting mutual understanding between local communities and the Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute (hereinafter referred to as JNC). The Risk Communication Study Team of JNC Tokai Works has started practical studies to promote further mutual understanding with the local communities. Several communication tools such as poster panels, slide materials, videos, website contents and newsletters were developed as part of its risk communication activities. This paper describes the survey of the internet users in prefectures where nuclear power stations are located, for the advertising effectiveness measurement of nuclear risk information provided on the web site 'Risk Information Navigator' (http://ricotti.jnc.go.jp/risknavi/) and the risk message materials jointly produced by Tokai village's people and JNC. (author)

  13. Combining the ASA Physical Classification System and Continuous Intraoperative Surgical Apgar Score Measurement in Predicting Postoperative Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jering, Monika Zdenka; Marolen, Khensani N; Shotwell, Matthew S; Denton, Jason N; Sandberg, Warren S; Ehrenfeld, Jesse Menachem

    2015-11-01

    The surgical Apgar score predicts major 30-day postoperative complications using data assessed at the end of surgery. We hypothesized that evaluating the surgical Apgar score continuously during surgery may identify patients at high risk for postoperative complications. We retrospectively identified general, vascular, and general oncology patients at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. Logistic regression methods were used to construct a series of predictive models in order to continuously estimate the risk of major postoperative complications, and to alert care providers during surgery should the risk exceed a given threshold. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to evaluate the discriminative ability of a model utilizing a continuously measured surgical Apgar score relative to models that use only preoperative clinical factors or continuously monitored individual constituents of the surgical Apgar score (i.e. heart rate, blood pressure, and blood loss). AUROC estimates were validated internally using a bootstrap method. 4,728 patients were included. Combining the ASA PS classification with continuously measured surgical Apgar score demonstrated improved discriminative ability (AUROC 0.80) in the pooled cohort compared to ASA (0.73) and the surgical Apgar score alone (0.74). To optimize the tradeoff between inadequate and excessive alerting with future real-time notifications, we recommend a threshold probability of 0.24. Continuous assessment of the surgical Apgar score is predictive for major postoperative complications. In the future, real-time notifications might allow for detection and mitigation of changes in a patient's accumulating risk of complications during a surgical procedure. PMID:26359018

  14. Social choice of convex risk measures through Arrovian aggregation of variational preferences

    OpenAIRE

    Herzberg, Frederik

    2010-01-01

    This paper studies collective decision making with regard to convex risk measures: It addresses the question whether there exist nondictatorial aggregation functions of convex risk measures satisfying Arrow-type rationality axioms (weak universality, systematicity, Pareto principle). Herein, convex risk measures are identified with variational preferences on account of the Maccheroni-Marinacci-Rustichini (2006) axiomatisation of variational preference relations and the Föllmer-Schied (2002, 2...

  15. Measuring grassland structure for recovery of grassland species at risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xulin; Gao, Wei; Wilmshurst, John

    2005-09-01

    An action plan for recovering species at risk (SAR) depends on an understanding of the plant community distribution, vegetation structure, quality of the food source and the impact of environmental factors such as climate change at large scale and disturbance at small scale, as these are fundamental factors for SAR habitat. Therefore, it is essential to advance our knowledge of understanding the SAR habitat distribution, habitat quality and dynamics, as well as developing an effective tool for measuring and monitoring SAR habitat changes. Using the advantages of non-destructive, low cost, and high efficient land surface vegetation biophysical parameter characterization, remote sensing is a potential tool for helping SAR recovery action. The main objective of this paper is to assess the most suitable techniques for using hyperspectral remote sensing to quantify grassland biophysical characteristics. The challenge of applying remote sensing in semi-arid and arid regions exists simply due to the lower biomass vegetation and high soil exposure. In conservation grasslands, this problem is enhanced because of the presence of senescent vegetation. Results from this study demonstrated that hyperspectral remote sensing could be the solution for semi-arid grassland remote sensing applications. Narrow band raw data and derived spectral vegetation indices showed stronger relationships with biophysical variables compared to the simulated broad band vegetation indices.

  16. Aqueduct: a methodology to measure and communicate global water risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gassert, Francis; Reig, Paul

    2013-04-01

    The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores and includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. Indicators are selected based on relevance to water users, availability and robustness of global data sources, and expert consultation, and are collected from existing datasets or derived from a Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) based integrated water balance model. Indicators are normalized using a threshold approach, and composite scores are computed using a linear aggregation scheme that allows for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. By providing consistent scores across the globe, the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables rapid comparison across diverse aspects of water risk. Companies can use this information to prioritize actions, investors to leverage financial interest to improve water management, and governments to engage with the private sector to seek solutions for more equitable and sustainable water governance. The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables practical applications of scientific data, helping non-expert audiences better understand and evaluate risks facing water users. This presentation will discuss the methodology used to combine the indicator values into aggregated risk scores and lessons learned from working with diverse audiences in academia, development institutions, and the public and private sectors.

  17. Air cleaning and radon decay product mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We evaluated air cleaning as a means to mitigate risks arising from exposure to indoor radon progeny in several single-family houses in the northeastern United States, using a new, automated, semi-continuous activity-weighted size distribution measurement system. Measurements included radon concentration, condensation nuclei count, and activity-weighted size distribution of radon decay products. Measurements were made with and without the air cleaning system operating. The influence of particles generated by various sources common to normal indoor activities on radon progeny behavior was evaluated. Aerosols were generated by running water in a shower, burning candles, smoking cigarettes, vacuuming, opening doors, and cooking. Both a filtration unit and an electrostatic precipitator were evaluated. Using a room model, the changes in attachment rates, average attachment diameters, and deposition rates of the ''unattached'' fraction with and without the air cleaning systems were calculated. The air cleaner typically reduced the radon progeny concentrations by 50 to 60%

  18. Security engineering: Phisical security measures for high-risk personnel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena S. Cice

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The design of physical security measures is a specialized technical area that does not fall in the normal skill record and resume of commanders, architects, engineers, and project managers. This document provides guidance to those parties tasked with implementing existing and emerging physical protection system requirements: -    Creation of a single-source reference for the design and construction of physical security measures for high-risk personnel (HRP. -    Promulgation of multi-service standard recommendations and considerations. -    Potential increase of productivity of HRP and reduced temporary housing costs through clarification of considerations, guidance on planning, and provision of design solutions. -    Reduction of facility project costs. -    Better performance of modernized facilities, in terms of force protection, than original facilities. Throughout this process you must ensure: confidentiality, appropriate Public Relations, sustainability, compliance with all industrial guidelines and legal and regulatory requirement, constant review and revision to accommodate new circumstances or threats. Introduction Physical security is an extremely broad topic. It encompasses access control devices such as smart cards, air filtration and fireproofing. It is also heavily reliant on infrastructure. This means that many of the ideal physical security measures may not be economically or physically feasible for existing sites. Many businesses do not have the option of building their own facility from the ground up; thus physical security often must be integrated into an existing structure. This limits the overall set of security measures that can be installed. There is an aspect of physical security that is often overlooked; the humans that interact with it. Humans commit crime for a number of reasons. The document focuses on two building types: the HRP office and the HRP residence. HRP are personnel who are likely to be terrorist or criminal targets based on their grade, assignment, symbolic value, criticality, and threat and vulnerability assessment. Levels of protection The recommendations contained in this criterion are intended to minimize the possibility of HRP casualties in buildings or portions of buildings in which they work and live. These recommendations provide appropriate and implementable measures to establish a level of protection against terrorist attacks where no known threat of terrorist activity currently exists. While complete protection against all potential threats is cost prohibitive, the intent of these recommendations can be achieved through prudent master planning, real estate acquisition, and design and construction practices. Tag number The tag number at the beginning of each physical security measure (recommendation is unique and is intended to be a communication aid when linking the requirement (recommendation to the supporting text or commentary. The three-character tag number uses the following legend. Tag Number First Character -The first character is an abbreviation for the defense zone layer that is most applicable for the countermeasure. “S” is used to represent site or external zone issues. “P” is used to represent the perimeter zone. “G” is used to represent issues relative to the property grounds. “E” is used to represent issues associated with the building exterior of the HRP office or residence. “I” is used to represent issues associated with the building interior. “H” is used to represent issues associated with the safe room or safe haven. Tag Number Second Character - The second character is a sequential number for countermeasures in a given zone - a requirement or a recommendation. This number ensures a unique tag number. Tag Number Third Character- The third character indicates whether the countermeasure is applicable to offices, residences, or both (common. “O” indicates a requirement or recommendation unique to offices. “R” represents a requirement or recommendation to residences. “C” represents a com

  19. Extreme Drought, Fire and Harvest Impacts on Pacific Northwest Forests, and the Effects of Future Climate and Mitigation Measures on the Carbon Balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, B. E.; Hudiburg, T. W.; Luyssaert, S.; Coops, N.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change is affecting the odds of extreme weather events, including increased frequency of drought events. Under past and current climate and land management conditions in the Pacific Northwest, natural (drought, fire) and anthropogenic (harvest) disturbances interact across landscapes to affect the carbon balance of forests. Biomass and productivity are high (Hudiburg et al. 2009, 2011), harvest and wildfire are the major disturbances, and harvest removals dominate the net ecosystem carbon balance. We used AmeriFlux observations, inventories, remote sensing data, and models to understand current and future effects on forest distributions and the carbon balance, and the effects of mitigation measures. The region is divided into the mild coastal climate and inland continental conditions with colder winters and drier forests in the rain shadow of the Cascade Mountains. In semi-arid ponderosa pine forests of the East Cascades ecoregion, NEP was reduced by ~44% during a series of extreme drought years compared with a seven year average, consistent with western region average impacts, and there were carry-over effects the following year. Reduction in GPP was proportionately larger than reduction in ecosystem respiration during drought. In the mild climate of the Coast Range, Douglas-fir NEP was reduced ~40% in a single drought year, but recovered quickly in subsequent 'normal' years. Douglas-fir tends to be very plastic and can take up carbon during the winter months when temperature is above freezing, but this isn't seen in ponderosa pine due to colder winter temperatures. Model projections of impacts of future climate on PNW forests suggest larger changes in the eastern dry part of the region, while predicted impacts on Coast Range forests are more variable. Modeling and observations suggest the Pacific Ocean may moderate climate and buffer the coastal forests. With projected increases in extreme drought events, particularly where dry systems are expected to become drier, the narrow band of ponderosa pine on the east side of the Cascades may shift towards the mountains and contract in range, while replaced by juniper woodlands or shrublands. Mitigation measures such as thinning of the dry forests to reduce competition for water are already being implemented, and proposed for the coastal forests. CLM4 simulations with future climate (1/8 deg) and RCP4.5 (moderate GHG reduction) suggest a slight increase in NEP, and thinning of vulnerable forests will result in no significant change in NEP but a decrease in NBP by the 21st century compared with that of current harvest levels. There is a need to improve our ability to identify forests most vulnerable to mortality by fire, drought, temperature, and/or beetle attack to inform mitigation measures and facilitate natural adaptation.

  20. Assessing the cost-effectiveness of seismic risk reduction options in oil industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An integrated probabilistic methodology for cost-efficiency estimation of different sort of seismic risk management measures are introduced by adding Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) module to an integrated seismic risk assessment model. An oil refinery in Iran has been selected for case study and cost-efficiency of software and hardware mitigation measures are evaluated. The results have shown that: (1) software mitigation measures have more benefit than hardware ones, (2) considering indirect loss in CBA lead to more benefit-cost ratio and (3) although increase of discount ratio decreases the benefit-cost ratio, the arrangement of mitigation measures from benefit-cost viewpoint are constant. (authors)

  1. Comparison of Measures of Risk for Recidivism in Sexual Offenders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Looman, Jan; Abracen, Jeffrey

    2010-01-01

    Data for both sexual and violent recidivism for the Static-99, Risk Matrix 2000 (RM 2000), Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offense Recidivism (RRASOR), and Static-2002 are reported for 419 released sexual offenders assessed at the Regional Treatment Centre Sexual Offender Treatment Program. Data are analyzed by offender type as well as the group as…

  2. The Basel II Accord on Measuring and Managing a Bank's Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Ion Stancu; Andrei Tinca

    2007-01-01

    The abundance of risk metrics stems from the effort to measure the difference between the expected and actual returns, under a hypothesis of normality. Under the assumption of risk aversion, investors are likely to quantify risk using metrics which measure returns lower than the expected average. These include the semi-variance of returns smaller than the average, the risk of loss – a return under a chosen level, usually 0%, and value-at-risk, for the greatest losses, with a probability of le...

  3. Analysis of the effects of hydrogen burning and measures taken for their mitigation at the Loviisa nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Loviisa plant units are furnished with a pressurized water reactor and an ice condenser type containment. The relatively low design pressure of this type of containment enhances the need for analysis of the consequences of burning of postulated large amounts of hydrogen released into the containment. In 1982 such an analysis was undertaken in cooperation with Westinghouse Electric Corporation, utilizing the tools available at that time. Hydrogen releases for several accident scenarios were estimated using the March code. The response of the containment to the controlled burning of the released hydrogen was calculated using the Clasix computer code developed by Offshore Power Systems (a subsidiary of Westinghouse). The assumption of controlled burning was based on the planned installation of hydrogen igniters in the containment. The result of this analysis indicated that the containment could withstand the pressure and temperature loadings imposed by the burning hydrogen. Subsequently to this analysis work, a mitigating system consisting of about 70 igniters, specifically made for this application, was installed and commissioned at both units of the Loviisa plant. (author)

  4. The Basel II Accord on Measuring and Managing a Bank's Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Stancu

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available The abundance of risk metrics stems from the effort to measure the difference between the expected and actual returns, under a hypothesis of normality. Under the assumption of risk aversion, investors are likely to quantify risk using metrics which measure returns lower than the expected average. These include the semi-variance of returns smaller than the average, the risk of loss – a return under a chosen level, usually 0%, and value-at-risk, for the greatest losses, with a probability of less than 1-5% in a given period of time. The Basel II accord improves on the way risks are measured, by allowing banks greater flexibility. There is an increase in the complexity of measuring credit risks, the market risks measurement methods remain the same, and the measurement of operational risk is introduced for the first time. The most advanced (and widely-used risk metrics are based on VaR. However, it must be noted that VaR calculations are statistical, and therefore unlikely to forecast extraordinary events. So the quality of a VaR calculation must be checked using back-testing, and if the VaR value fails in a percentage of 1-5% of the cases, then the premises of the model must be changed.

  5. Impact of Fitness Versus Obesity on Routinely Measured Cardiometabolic Risk in Young, Healthy Adults

    OpenAIRE

    Vranian, Michael N.; Keenan, Tanya; Michael J Blaha; Silverman, Michael G.; Michos, Erin D; Minder, C. Michael; Roger S Blumenthal; Nasir, Khurram; Romeu S. Meneghelo; Raul D Santos

    2013-01-01

    Obesity demonstrates a direct relation with cardiovascular risk and all-cause mortality, while cardiorespiratory fitness demonstrates an inverse relation. In clinical practice, several cardiometabolic (“CM”) risk factors are commonly measured to gauge cardiovascular risk yet the interaction between fitness and obesity with regard CM risk has not been fully explored. We studied 2,634 Brazilian adults referred for an employer-sponsored heath exam. Obesity was defined as BMI >30 kg/m2 or waist c...

  6. Development and pilot of an internationally standardized measure of cardiovascular risk management in European primary care

    OpenAIRE

    Szecsenyi Joachim; Grol Richard; van Lieshout Jan; Campbell Stephen M; Ludt Sabine; Wensing Michel

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background Primary care can play an important role in providing cardiovascular risk management in patients with established Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD), patients with a known high risk of developing CVD, and potentially for individuals with a low risk of developing CVD, but who have unhealthy lifestyles. To describe and compare cardiovascular risk management, internationally valid quality indicators and standardized measures are needed. As part of a large project in 9 European coun...

  7. Coastal Risk Management in a Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2014-01-01

    Existing coastal management and defense approaches are not well suited to meet the challenges of climate change and related uncertanities. Professionals in this field need a more dynamic, systematic and multidisciplinary approach. Written by an international group of experts, "Coastal Risk Management in a Changing Climate" provides innovative, multidisciplinary best practices for mitigating the effects of climate change on coastal structures. Based on the Theseus program, the book includes eight study sites across Europe, with specific attention to the most vulnerable coastal environments such as deltas, estuaries and wetlands, where many large cities and industrial areas are located. Integrated risk assessment tools for considering the effects of climate change and related uncertainties. Presents latest insights on coastal engineering defenses. Provides integrated guidelines for setting up optimal mitigation measures. Provides directly applicable tools for the design of mitigation measures. Highlights socio-economic perspectives in coastal mitigation.

  8. The application of the PSA important measures in risk-informed administrations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The importance measures analyses of PSA are main approaches during the risk-informed administrations. This paper reviews kinds of importance measures, mainly researches the meaning of the FV and RAW importance measures, and introduces the applications of importance measures in the in-service testing and categorization of SSCs, finally, discusses the limitations of the importance measures analyses. (authors)

  9. Human Health Research Program: Approaches for evaluating public health outcomes of risk management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Research to develop tools to link the enactment and implementation of environmental risk mitigation actions such as rules, regulations, or educational outreach to measurable changes in exposure to toxicants and subsequent health effects. Research in this area includes the develo...

  10. Climate change adaptation strategies and mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Fernández, Cristina

    2015-04-01

    The pace of climate change and the consequent warming of the Earth's surface is increasing vulnerability and decreasing adaptive capacity. Achieving a successful adaptation depends on the development of technology, institutional organization, financing availability and the exchange of information. Populations living in arid and semi-arid zones, low-lying coastal areas, land with water shortages or at risk of overflow or small islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Due to increasing population density in sensitive areas, some regions have become more vulnerable to events such as storms, floods and droughts, like the river basins and coastal plains. Human activities have fragmented and increased the vulnerability of ecosystems, which limit both, their natural adaptation and the effectiveness of the measures adopted. Adaptation means to carry out the necessary modifications for society to adapt to new climatic conditions in order to reduce their vulnerability to climate change. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) and to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or face the consequences. Adaptation reduces the adverse impacts of climate change and enhance beneficial impacts, but will not prevent substantial cost that are produced by all damages. The performances require adaptation actions. These are defined and implemented at national, regional or local levels since many of the impacts and vulnerabilities depend on the particular economic, geographic and social circumstances of each country or region. We will present some adaptation strategies at national and local level and revise some cases of its implementation in several vulnerable areas. However, adaptation to climate change must be closely related to mitigation policies because the degree of change planned in different climatic variables is a function of the concentration levels that are achieved by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mitigation and adaptation are therefore complementary actions. In the long term, climate change without mitigation measures will likely exceed the adaptive capacity of natural, managed and human systems. Early adoption of mitigation measures would break the dependence on carbon-intensive infrastructures and reduce adaptation needs to climate change. It also can save on adaptation cost. Therefore mitigation is the key objective of the global warming problem but little is being done in this field. We will present some proposals of "preventive economically efficient" policies at a global and regional level which will constitute the complement to the adaptation aspect.

  11. Farmers Prone to Drought Risk: Why Some Farmers Undertake Farm-Level Risk-Reduction Measures While Others Not?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

    2015-03-01

    This research investigates farmers' cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer the question of why some people show adaptive behavior while others do not, a socio-psychological model of precautionary adaptation based on protection motivation theory and trans-theoretical stage model has been applied for the first time to areas of drought risk in the developing countries cultural context. The applicability of the integrated model is explored by means of a representative sample survey of smallholder farmers in northern Ethiopia. The result of the study showed that there is a statistically significant association between farmer's behavioral intention to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures and the main important protection motivation model variables. High perceived vulnerability, severity of consequences, self-efficacy, and response efficacy lead to higher levels of behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. For farmers in the action stage, self-efficacy and response efficacy were the main motivators of behavioral intention. For farmers in the contemplative stage, self-efficacy and cost appear to be the main motivators for them to act upon risk reduction, while perceived severity of consequences and cost of response actions were found to be important for farmers in the pre-contemplative stage.

  12. New class of distortion risk measures and their tail asymptotics with emphasis on VaR

    OpenAIRE

    Yin, Chuancun

    2015-01-01

    Distortion risk measures are extensively used in finance and insurance applications because of their appealing properties. We present three methods to construct new class of distortion functions and measures. The approach involves the composting methods, the mixing methods and the approach that based on the theory of copula. Subadditivity is an important property when aggregating risks in order to preserve the benefits of diversification. However, Value at risk (VaR), as the...

  13. The value of pressure ulcer risk assessment and interface pressure measurements in patients: A nursing perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Weststrate, J.T.M.

    2005-01-01

    Pressure sores in an intensive care unit 35 and related variables: a descriptive study Prevalence of pressure ulcers, risk factors 47 and the use of pressure-relieving mattresses in ICU patients The clinical relevance of the Waterlow 61 Pressure Sore Risk Scale in the ICU The reproducibility of interface pressure 75 measurements in patients at risk of developing a pressure ulcer A comparison of interface pressure 91 measurements between patient...

  14. Impactos ambientais da mobilidade urbana: cinco categorias de medidas mitigadoras / Environmental impacts of urban mobility: five categories of mitigating measures

    Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

    Rafael, Barczak; Fábio, Duarte.

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Desde 1970, a emissão de CO2 no setor industrial cresceu 65% em todo o mundo, contra 120% no de transportes - e 80% da energia utilizada para a mobilidade área urbana têm origem na queima de combustíveis fósseis. Assim, a motorização da mobilidade urbana é um dos principais emissores de gases de efe [...] ito estufa. Para analisar este cenário, este artigo toma como base a produção científica internacional produzida do Protocolo de Kyoto (1997) à conferência de Copenhague (2008) para levantar quais principais medidas para a redução do impacto ambiental, especialmente das emissões de CO2. Argumenta-se aqui que são cinco os grupos de medidas a partir da discussão de textos técnicos de órgãos internacionais e produção científica, sendo: econômico-fiscais e financeiras; regulatórias; informação e comunicação; planejamento urbano; e tecnológicas. Abstract in english Since 1970, in a world level emission of CO2 in industry has increased 65 percent; during the same period, it increased up to 120 percent in the transportation sector. And 80 percent of the energy used in urban mobility comes from fossil fuels. The motorization of urban mobility has therefore become [...] one of the main sources of greenhouse gases. We propose here an analysis of this scenario based on papers published by international scientific journals between 1997 (Kyoto Protocol) and 2008 (Copenhage Conference), trying to map which are the main mitigating actions which have been advanced by the scientific community and technical reports by international agencies. We argue here that these actions could be grouped in five categories: financial and economical; regulatory; information and communication; urban planning; and technological.

  15. Eye-Tracking Measurements of Language Processing: Developmental Differences in Children at High Risk for ASD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chita-Tegmark, Meia; Arunachalam, Sudha; Nelson, Charles A.; Tager-Flusberg, Helen

    2015-01-01

    To explore how being at high risk for autism spectrum disorder (ASD), based on having an older sibling diagnosed with ASD, affects word comprehension and language processing speed, 18-, 24- and 36-month-old children, at high and low risk for ASD were tested in a cross-sectional study, on an eye gaze measure of receptive language that measured how…

  16. Managing Risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alaranta, Maria Eliisa; Mathiassen, Lars

    2014-01-01

    Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) require organizations to blend together different information system (IS) configurations. Unfortunately, less than 50 percent of M&A's achieve their goals, with IS integration being a major problem. Here, the authors offer a framework to help managers prepare for, analyze, and mitigate risks during post-merger IS integration. They identify key risks relating to IS integration content, process, and context, and present five strategies for mitigating those risks. The...

  17. How to measure uncertainties in environmental risk assassment

    OpenAIRE

    Darbra, Rosa María; Eljarrat, Ethel; Barceló, Damià

    2008-01-01

    Environmental risk assessment is an essential element in any decision-making process in order to minimize the effects of human activities on the environment. Unfortunately, often environmental data tends to be vague and imprecise, so uncertainty is associated with any study related with these kind of data. Essentially, uncertainty in risk assessment may have two origins – randomness and incompleteness. There are two main ways to deal with these uncertainties – probability...

  18. Banking activity. Management by risk assessment and measurement

    OpenAIRE

    Vasile Gotcu

    2009-01-01

    Rapid innovations in financial markets and the internationalization of the financial flows have created opportunities for developing some new products and supplying a wider product and service range to the banks. Liberalization of the financial markets , the severe competition and the diversification of the offered products expose banks to new risks and provocations. This new approach confirms the fact that the banking management generally and the risk management especially represents essenti...

  19. RISK MARKERS FOR DEPRESSION IN ADOLESCENTS: SLEEP AND HPA MEASURES

    OpenAIRE

    Rao,Uma; Hammen, Constance L.; Poland, Russell E

    2009-01-01

    Previous work has demonstrated reliable electroencephalographic (EEG) sleep and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) changes associated with adult major depressive disorder. These changes might be evident before clinical manifestation of the illness in at-risk persons. The aim of the study was to identify depression-related EEG sleep and HPA changes in healthy adolescents at high-risk for depression, and to examine the relationship between EEG sleep (or HPA) changes and the onset of depressio...

  20. Harnessing Farmers' knowledge and perceptions for health-risk reduction in wastewater-irrigated agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keraita, Bernhard; Drechsel, Pay; Seidu, Razak; Amerasinghe, Priyanie; Cofie, Olufunke; Konradsen, Flemming

    2010-01-01

    This chapter addresses the importance of understanding farmers’ knowledge and perceptions on health-risk and risk-reduction measures for the development of mutually acceptable risk-management strategies. Drawing on studies from different countries, the chapter shows that it is not realistic to expect high risk awareness. In cases where farmers are aware of health risks, they assess mitigation measures in view of their overall impact on work efficiency and crop yield rather than only the potentia...

  1. On the risk criterion and the index of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The development of a means to quantify risk, the determination of a risk criterion, and the establishment of a method to compare risks are three essential components in a probabilistic safety assessment. In this paper, the quantitative definition of risk given by Kaplan and Garrick is converted from a table to a graph to accommodate Farmer's method of constructing a risk criterion. Farmer's criterion is limited to a straight line, but its slope is made a free parameter. The high-frequency small-consequence problem noted by Farmer is solved by using an auxiliary vertical line to exclude scenarios with insignificant consequences. To compare risks associated with various accident scenarios, an index of risk relative to the straight-line risk criterion is proposed and developed. The results allow various accident scenarios to be ranked according to their weighted risks and, in turn, provide a measure of the effectiveness of mitigation

  2. International perspectives on mitigating laboratory biorisks.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pinard, William J.; Salazar, Carlos A.

    2010-11-01

    The International Perspectives on Mitigating Laboratory Biorisks workshop, held at the Renaissance Polat Istanbul Hotel in Istanbul, Republic of Turkey, from October 25 to 27, 2010, sought to promote discussion between experts and stakeholders from around the world on issues related to the management of biological risk in laboratories. The event was organized by Sandia National Laboratories International Biological Threat Reduction program, on behalf of the US Department of State Biosecurity Engagement Program and the US Department of Defense Cooperative Biological Engagement Program. The workshop came about as a response to US Under Secretary of State Ellen O. Tauscher's statements in Geneva on December 9, 2009, during the Annual Meeting of the States Parties to the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC). Pursuant to those remarks, the workshop was intended to provide a forum for interested countries to share information on biorisk management training, standards, and needs. Over the course of the meeting's three days, participants discussed diverse topics such as the role of risk assessment in laboratory biorisk management, strategies for mitigating risk, measurement of performance and upkeep, international standards, training and building workforce competence, and the important role of government and regulation. The meeting concluded with affirmations of the utility of international cooperation in this sphere and recognition of positive prospects for the future. The workshop was organized as a series of short presentations by international experts on the field of biorisk management, followed by breakout sessions in which participants were divided into four groups and urged to discuss a particular topic with the aid of a facilitator and a set of guiding questions. Rapporteurs were present during the plenary session as well as breakout sessions and in particular were tasked with taking notes during discussions and reporting back to the assembled participants a brief summary of points discussed. The presentations and breakout sessions were divided into five topic areas: 'Challenges in Biorisk Management,' 'Risk Assessment and Mitigation Measures,' 'Biorisk Management System Performance,' 'Training,' and 'National Oversight and Regulations.' The topics and questions were chosen by the organizers through consultation with US Government sponsors. The Chattham House Rule on non-attribution was in effect during question and answer periods and breakout session discussions.

  3. Process business risk: a methodology for assessing and mitigating the financial impact of process plant accidents; Avaliacao de risco ao negocio devido a acidentes de processo em plantas industriais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Almeida, Ana Cristina C.; Bardy, Mariana B. [Det Norske Veritas (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    Traditional risk management has focused on effects on people, particularly when using Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA). A much broader approach is being adopted nowadays, with companies beginning to consider potential accidental losses in their decision making process. This paper describes a study where business risks from major accident hazards were assessed for a large petrochemical plant. The results are presented as F-Cost curves, which are similar to traditional F-N curves, but represent cumulative frequencies of events versus their cost, instead of fatalities. A different variety of costs can be evaluated as property damage, business interruption, inventory loss, environmental loss, clean-up costs, legal costs, fatality and injury costs, amongst others. As final objective of the study insurance values can be adjusted as well as decisions on reducing risk can be made based on the actual benefit, considering the reduction of losses and the amount to be spent on mitigating major risks. Also, values for civil liability insurance can be reviewed, based on the hazards that can result in fatalities and injuries, as well as property losses, for third parties. This paper presents the results of a study which involved the evaluation of the company's civil liability. The key driver was to consider a more accurate value for the company insurance policy, considering the different losses that major accident can lead on for a community and industries located nearby a petrochemical plant. The results of the analysis are presented as F-Cost curves and we describe the risk-based decision making process and criteria adopted by the company to set the maximum loss value to be insured for civil liability. In conclusion, this paper presents results from a real life example of the application of the quantitative evaluation of business risks, illustrating that a financial or business risk approach can help management in day-to-day decisions when considering possible effects of major chemical process accidents. (author)

  4. Banking activity. Management by risk assessment and measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasile Gotcu

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Rapid innovations in financial markets and the internationalization of the financial flows have created opportunities for developing some new products and supplying a wider product and service range to the banks. Liberalization of the financial markets , the severe competition and the diversification of the offered products expose banks to new risks and provocations. This new approach confirms the fact that the banking management generally and the risk management especially represents essential concern for the security and the stability both of each bank and the entire bankingsystem.

  5. Steps in preparing and biodiversity section of climate change action plan. Development and evolution of forestry and biodiversity mitigation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Methodic for drawing up of national action plans on prevention of unfavorable consequences of climate change in forestry is described. Approaches to development and measures evolution in these fields on greenhouse effect reduce are considered. (author)

  6. Incorporating risk measures in closed-loop supply chain network design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soleimani, H.; Seyyed-Esfahani, M.

    2014-01-01

    This paper considers a location-allocation problem in a closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) with two extensions: first, demand and prices of new and return products are regarded as non-deterministic parameters and second, the objective function is developed from expected profit to three types of mean-risk ones. Indeed, design and planning an integrated CLSC in real-world volatile markets is an important and necessary issue. Further, risk-neutral approaches, which are considered expected values, are not efficient for such uncertain conditions. Hence, this paper, copes with the design and planning problem of a CLSC in a two-stage stochastic structure. Besides, risk criteria are considered through using three types of popular and well-behaved risk measures: mean absolute deviation, value at risk and conditional value at risk (CVaR). Consequently, three types of mean-risk models are developed as objective functions and decision-making procedures are undertaken based on the expected values and risk adversity criteria.Finally, performances of the developed mean-risk models are evaluated in various aspects. Results reveal that the inefficiencies of risk-neutral approaches can be overcome. In addition, in terms of quality of solutions, the acceptability of CVaR is proved when it is compared to other risk measures. © 2013 Taylor & Francis.

  7. Minimization and Mitigation of Wire EDM Cutting Errors in the Application of the Contour Method of Residual Stress Measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Bilal; Fitzpatrick, Michael E.

    2015-11-01

    The contour method of residual stress measurement relies on the careful application of wire electro-discharge machining (WEDM) for the cutting stage. Changes in material removal rates during the cut lead to errors in the final calculated values of residual stress. In this study, WEDM cutting parameters have been explored to identify the optimum conditions for contour method residual stress measurements. The influence of machine parameters on the surface roughness and cutting artifacts in the contour cut is discussed. It has been identified that the critical parameter in improving the surface finish is the spark pulse duration. A typical cutting artifact and its impact on measured stress values have been identified and demonstrated for a contour cut in a welded marine steel. A procedure is presented to correct contour displacement data from the influence of WEDM cutting artifacts, and is demonstrated on the correction of a measured weld residual stress. The corrected contour method improved the residual stress magnitude up to 150 MPa. The corrected contour method results were validated by X-ray diffraction, incremental center hole drilling, and neutron diffraction.

  8. Measuring Property Management Risk and Loss: Step One Toward Managing Property on a Foundation of Risk, Cost, and Benefit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This is a period of ever-tightening defense budgets and continuing pressure on the public sector to be more commercial-like, Property policies, practices, and regulations are increasingly being challenged and changed. In these times, we must be leaders in understanding and defining the value of our profession from a commercial standpoint so that we can provide the right services to our customers and explain and defend the value of those services. To do so, we must step outside current property management practices, regulations, and oversight. We must learn to think and speak in the language of those who fund us--a financial language of risk, cost, and benefit. Regardless of regulation and oversight, our bosses are demanding that we demonstrate (financially) the benefits of current practice, or else. This article is intended to be the beginning of an effort to understand and define our profession in terms of risk, cost, and benefit so that we can meet these new challenges. The first step in this effort must be defining and measuring risk, cost, and benefit. Our costs, although sometimes difficult to capture, are easy to understand: they are almost exclusively the effort, both within and without the property management organization, involved in managing property. Unfortunately, property risks and benefits are not so simple or so well understood. Generally, risks and benefits are identified and measured through physical inventory results: potential and actual shortages. This paper will explore the weaknesses in the current understanding and use of shortage information as the yardstick for property management risks and performance. It will define a new framework for understanding the purpose and value of property management. And finally, it will set a course for a new method of measuring and valuing physical inventoty shortages. This new method will yield accurate and useful measures of property management risk and benefit. Once risk and benefit are accurately understood and measured, it will be possible to evaluate, adjust, and explain property management practices and regulations from a commercial, financial perspective; it will be possible for us to be the leaders in redefining the purpose and value of the property management profession for today's environment

  9. Multicriteria assessment in Mustionjoki river. Comparing different mitigation measures to enhance freshwater mussel and salmon populations; Monitavoitearviointi Mustionjoen kunnostuksessa. Simpukka- ja lohikantojen elvyttaemisvaihtoehtojen arviointi

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dufva, M.; Marttunen, M.

    2010-11-15

    In 2009 the Finnish Association for Nature Conservation and Fortum ltd. started a project for comparing the desirability and feasibility of different mitigation measures to enhance freshwater mussel and salmon populations. Multicriteria assessment (multi-criteria decision analysis) was used as an integral part of the project. It provided a systemic framework for gathering and presenting information, interviewing key stakeholders, discussing the results and deciding on further actions. Altogether 12 decision analysis interviews were carried out with the help of Web-HIPRE. In this publication we describe the realization of multicriteria assessment and its results. We also present estimates of the costs, benefits and feasibility of different measures and alternatives. Proposals for further study are also suggested. Multicriteria assessment helped the steering group of the project and the respondents to get a better overall understanding of the planning situation. It also helped to understand the scale of the impacts and the uncertainty related to them. As an outcome the analysis produced the desirability of alternatives from each participants' point of view. While not giving an absolute ranking to the alternatives, since it depends on the point of view, multicriteria assessment provided a common ground for the stakeholders for planning further recommendations. Our highly participatory approach fostered and improved the collaborative planning process in many ways (orig.)

  10. China’s Low-Carbon Scenario Analysis of CO2 Mitigation Measures towards 2050 Using a Hybrid AIM/CGE Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Li

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available China’s emissions continue to rise rapidly in line with its mounting energy consumption, which puts considerable pressure on China to meet its emission reduction commitments. This paper assesses the impacts of CO2 mitigation measures in China during the period from 2010 to 2050 by using a computable general equilibrium method, called AIM/CGE. Results show that renewable energy makes a critical difference in abating emissions during the period from 2010 to 2020. The scenarios with emission trading would drive more emission reductions, whereby the emission-cutting commitment for 2020 would be achieved and emission reductions in 2050 would be more than 57.90%. Meanwhile, the share of non-fossil energy increases significantly and would be more than doubled in 2050 compared with the BAU scenario. A carbon tax would result in a significant decline in emissions in the short term, but would have an adverse effect on economic growth and energy structure improvements. It is also observed that the integrated measures would not only substantially decrease the total emissions, but also improve the energy structure.

  11. Robust valuation and risk measurement under model uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Xu, Yuhong

    2014-01-01

    Model uncertainty is a type of inevitable financial risk. Mistakes on the choice of pricing model may cause great financial losses. In this paper we investigate financial markets with mean-volatility uncertainty. Models for stock markets and option markets with uncertain prior distribution are established by Peng's G-stochastic calculus. The process of stock price is described by generalized geometric G-Brownian motion in which the mean uncertainty may move together with or ...

  12. MEASURING THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK LOSS OF THE BANK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Bistriceanu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The present paper obtained a relationship for the Potential Loss of the bank's portfolio of foreign currencies by using the normal distribution assumption of the exchange rates daily variations. Second, it is determined the Potential Loss of a bank that keeps the accounting in Euro for a portfolio consists of five the most commonly traded currencies in 2013. Finally, there are mentioned two main purposes of determining the bank's Potential Loss due to foreign exchange risk.

  13. Smoking in film in New Zealand: measuring risk exposure

    OpenAIRE

    Stockwell Alannah; Carroll Rebecca; Townsend Simon; Yi Jesse; Ah-Yen Damien; Chakrabarti Anannya; Okawa Ken; Smith Tara; Fry Bridget; Gale Jesse; Sievwright Andrea; Dew Kevin; Thomson George

    2006-01-01

    Abstract Background Smoking in film is a risk factor for smoking uptake in adolescence. This study aimed to quantify exposure to smoking in film received by New Zealand audiences, and evaluate potential interventions to reduce the quantity and impact of this exposure. Methods The ten highest-grossing films in New Zealand for 2003 were each analysed independently by two viewers for smoking, smoking references and related imagery. Potential interventions were explored by reviewing relevant New ...

  14. A CONFIRMATORY APPROACH TO MEASURING RISKS IN SUPPLY CHAINS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constangioara Alexandru

    2014-07-01

    Our proposed research methodology reveals the advantages of a confirmatory factor analysis over an exploratory principal component analysis in the context of risks management in supply chains. Moreover, as Sodhi and Tang (2012 reveals, more than half of papers in existing SCRM literature are either conceptual or qualitative empirical (case studies. Our proposed quantitative methodology contributes to reducing the above mentioned gap, providing results that can be used for statistical inferences and for enhancing the efficiency of the managerial decisional process.

  15. Analysis on Financial Risks of Derivation and Preventive Measures

    OpenAIRE

    Yu Pan; Fan Wu

    2009-01-01

    Financial derivatives, as innovative financial instrument, have been designed for enterprises to avoid financial risks. Most of these derivatives rely on future trends of traditional tools, such as valuation, interest rates and exchange rates. Such expected future transactions or events can not be recognized as assets because they do not meet the definition of assets, economic resources owned or controlled by enterprises and only made by past transactions. The use of the traditional accountin...

  16. Identifying, measuring and management risks in Russian secondary stock markets

    OpenAIRE

    Lapsina, Elena; Thor, Eric; Melnikov, Roman

    1998-01-01

    : This paper outlines the changes and challenges of Emerging Russian Stock Market and investment strategy of portfolio management for the period 1996-1998 . It also taste the West models of optimization of portfolio risks and investment decisions for Russia. The major purpose of this article was to enhance the understanding of the participants in securities markets and enhance the performance of its stock and Emerging securities. This article will review the trends in the markets and help foc...

  17. Soil erosion after forest fires: evaluation of mitigation measures applied to drainage channels in the northwest of Portugal

    OpenAIRE

    Bento-Gonçalves, António; Lourenço, Luciano; Nunes, Adélia; Castro, Ana Cristina Meira; Ferreira-Leite, Flora

    2014-01-01

    The development and implementation of measures which promote the reduction of the impacts of forest fires on soils is imperative and should be part of any strategy for forest and soil preservation and recovery, especially considering the actual scenario of continuous growth in the number of fires and burnt area. Consequently, with the dendrocaustologic reality that has characterized the Portuguese mainland in recent decades, a research project promoted by the Center for the Study of Geography...

  18. Soil erosion after forest fires : evaluation of mitigation measures applied to drainage channels in the northwest of Portugal

    OpenAIRE

    Vieira, Ant??nio; Gon??alves, Ant??nio Bento; Louren??o, Luciano; Nunes, Ad??lia; Castro, Ana Meira; Leite, Flora Ferreira

    2014-01-01

    The development and implementation of measures which promote the reduction of the impacts of forest fires on soils is imperative and should be part of any strategy for forest and soil preservation and recovery, especially considering the actual scenario of continuous growth in the number of fires and burnt area. Consequently, with the dendrocaustologic reality that has characterized the Portuguese mainland in recent decades, a research project promoted by the Center for the Study of Geography...

  19. Boon or bane of advance tax rulings as a measure to mitigate tax uncertainty and foster investment

    OpenAIRE

    Diller, Markus; Kortebusch, Pia; Schneider, Georg; Sureth, Caren

    2015-01-01

    Tax uncertainty often negatively affects investment. Advance tax rulings (ATRs) are commonly used as a measure to provide tax certainty. Rulings are currently controversially discussed in the context of tax planning activities of multinational firms (Luxembourg Leaks). We analyze ATRs as tax uncertainty shields from both the taxpayers' and the tax authorities' perspectives. In general, tax authorities charge ATR fees and investors request ATRs provided the fee does not exceed a certain thresh...

  20. Percepção e medidas de gestão de riscos por produtores de arroz irrigado na Fronteira Oeste do Rio Grande do Sul / Risk perception and risk management measures by irrigated rice growers in Fronteira Oeste, Rio Grande do Sul

    Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

    Maria Isabel Fernandes, Finger; Paulo Dabdab, Waquil.

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available A produção agrícola apresenta características particulares, se comparada a outras atividades econômicas, sendo uma das mais marcantes a extensão dos riscos aos quais está exposta. O cultivo de arroz (Oryza sativa L.) irrigado, embora pareça menos suscetível do que as culturas de sequeiro, também est [...] á exposto a riscos. Maior produtor mundial de arroz fora da Ásia, o Brasil tem no Rio Grande do Sul seu principal estado produtor. O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar como o orizicultor da Fronteira Oeste do Rio Grande do Sul percebe os riscos da sua atividade e quais medidas adota para geri-los. A metodologia empregada envolveu aplicação presencial de questionários a orizicultores, de acordo com uma amostra não probabilística. Os resultados indicaram que os orizicultores atribuem maior relevância aos riscos socioeconômicos do que aos de produção. Evidencia-se, assim, a importância da gestão do negócio pelos orizicultores, para que sua atividade esteja integrada com os demais elos da cadeia produtiva. A redução de custos pode ser uma alternativa para mitigação de riscos de mercado, apontados como os mais relevantes pelos orizicultores. A percepção dos orizicultores sobre riscos e sobre medidas para mitigá-los pode representar a base na formulação de estratégias de gestão de riscos. Abstract in english Agricultural production has many different influencing factors compared to other economic activities. One of the most striking is the extent of the risks to which it is exposed. Irrigated rice (Oryza sativa L.) cultivation, although seeming less susceptible than non-irrigated crops, is also exposed [...] to risks. World's largest producer of rice outside Asia, Brazil has the state of Rio Grande do Sul as its main producer. The aim of this study was to analyze how rice farmers in Fronteira Oeste, Rio Grande do Sul realize the risks of their activity and how they manage them. Methodology involved the administration of a questionnaire, according to a non-probabilistic sample. The results indicated that rice farmers attach greater relevance to economic and social risks rather than to production related ones. Thus, one realizes the importance of business management, in order to integrate their activity with others links of the production chain. Costs reduction may be an option to mitigate market risks, identified as the most relevant by the rice growers. Rice growers´ perception on risk and on measures to mitigate it may represent the foundation for formulating risk management strategies.