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Sample records for reliability comparative analysis

  1. A comparative reliability analysis of free-piston Stirling machines

    Schreiber, Jeffrey G.

    2001-02-01

    A free-piston Stirling power convertor is being developed for use in an advanced radioisotope power system to provide electric power for NASA deep space missions. These missions are typically long lived, lasting for up to 14 years. The Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for providing the radioisotope power system for the NASA missions, and has managed the development of the free-piston power convertor for this application. The NASA Glenn Research Center has been involved in the development of Stirling power conversion technology for over 25 years and is currently providing support to DOE. Due to the nature of the potential missions, long life and high reliability are important features for the power system. Substantial resources have been spent on the development of long life Stirling cryocoolers for space applications. As a very general statement, free-piston Stirling power convertors have many features in common with free-piston Stirling cryocoolers, however there are also significant differences. For example, designs exist for both power convertors and cryocoolers that use the flexure bearing support system to provide noncontacting operation of the close-clearance moving parts. This technology and the operating experience derived from one application may be readily applied to the other application. This similarity does not pertain in the case of outgassing and contamination. In the cryocooler, the contaminants normally condense in the critical heat exchangers and foul the performance. In the Stirling power convertor just the opposite is true as contaminants condense on non-critical surfaces. A methodology was recently published that provides a relative comparison of reliability, and is applicable to systems. The methodology has been applied to compare the reliability of a Stirling cryocooler relative to that of a free-piston Stirling power convertor. The reliability analysis indicates that the power convertor should be able to have superior reliability compared to the cryocooler. .

  2. Analysis of reliability AAN laboratory with comparative method

    The AAN method is an analysis method which has good accuracy and precision. The samples of SRM 1646a Estuary sediment, SRM 1648 Urban particulate, SRM 1573 a Tomato leaves, and CRM No. 3 Chlorella was analyzed with AAN method in the AAN Laboratory at P2TRR. The analyzed method result show the 10 % relation of the element contain with long life time, if considered with certificate. These mean the result of the analysis done by the NAA in P2TRR is good

  3. Reliability on Intra-Laboratory and Inter-Laboratory Data of Hair Mineral Analysis Comparing with Blood Analysis

    Namkoong, Sun; Hong, Seung Phil; Kim, Myung Hwa; Park, Byung Cheol

    2013-01-01

    Background Nowadays, although its clinical value remains controversial institutions utilize hair mineral analysis. Arguments about the reliability of hair mineral analysis persist, and there have been evaluations of commercial laboratories performing hair mineral analysis. Objective The objective of this study was to assess the reliability of intra-laboratory and inter-laboratory data at three commercial laboratories conducting hair mineral analysis, compared to serum mineral analysis. Method...

  4. Small nuclear power reactor emergency electric power supply system reliability comparative analysis

    This work presents an analysis of the reliability of the emergency power supply system, of a small size nuclear power reactor. Three different configurations are investigated and their reliability analyzed. The fault tree method is used as the main tool of analysis. The work includes a bibliographic review of emergency diesel generator reliability and a discussion of the design requirements applicable to emergency electrical systems. The influence of common cause failure influences is considered using the beta factor model. The operator action is considered using human failure probabilities. A parametric analysis shows the strong dependence between the reactor safety and the loss of offsite electric power supply. It is also shown that common cause failures can be a major contributor to the system reliability. (author)

  5. Analysis of the reliability and reproducibility of goniometry compared to hand photogrammetry

    de Carvalho, Rosana Martins Ferreira; Mazzer, Nilton; Barbieri, Claudio Henrique

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the intra- and inter-examiner reliability and reproducibility of goniometry in relation to photogrammetry of hand, comparing the angles of thumb abduction, PIP joint flexion of the II finger and MCP joint flexion of the V finger. Methods: The study included 30 volunteers, who were divided into three groups: one group of 10 physiotherapy students, one group of 10 physiotherapists, and a third group of 10 therapists of the hand. Each examiner performed the measurements on...

  6. A Comparative Analysis of Methods of Polynomial Coefficients Determination for Reliability Indices of Ilorin Distribution Systems

    Ganiyu A. Ajenikoko,; Anthony A. Olaomi

    2014-01-01

    Distribution system delivers the transmitted energy to the end users which are customers. This paper develops a generalized polynomial model and compares the coefficients for the assessment of reliability indices of Ilorin distribution system feeders. The results of the coefficients obtained were validated by subjecting the polynomial model to three methods namely: Lagrange Polynomial, Newton and Chebychev Polynomial function methods. The results of the work showed...

  7. A Comparative Analysis of Methods of Polynomial Coefficients Determination for Reliability Indices of Ilorin Distribution Systems

    Ganiyu A. Ajenikoko,

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Distribution system delivers the transmitted energy to the end users which are customers. This paper develops a generalized polynomial model and compares the coefficients for the assessment of reliability indices of Ilorin distribution system feeders. The results of the coefficients obtained were validated by subjecting the polynomial model to three methods namely: Lagrange Polynomial, Newton and Chebychev Polynomial function methods. The results of the work showed that average values of -7x10-4 , 0.00212, -0.0256, 0.1549, - 0.4865 and 0.7049 were obtained as the coefficient values from the Lagrange, Newton and Chebychev polynomial function methods which compare favourably well with the coefficient values of -7x10-4 , 0.0021, -0.0257, 0.1549, -0.4865 and 0.7048 obtained from the simulation results. The knowledge of these coefficients will form a basis for adequate planning and management of power distribution systems.

  8. Probabilistic-statistical analysis of WWER fuel element leaking causes and comparative analysis of the fuel reliability indicator on NPPs with WWER and PWR reactors

    The results of a comparative analysis of the fuel reliability indicator on NPPs with WWER and PWR reactors are presented in this report. As an exponent for a comparative reliability analysis of the WANO fuel reliability indicator is used. The fuel reliability indicator provides a general measure of the extent to which the reactor coolant activity is increased as a result of fuel damage. The analysis of fuel reliability indicator values during 1991-2001 at NPPs with WWER-1000 and WWER-440 reactors (Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Finland) is carried out. The high level of WWER fuel reliability is scored except for cases of fuel failures in separate operating periods of some units. (author)

  9. Comparative reliability studies and analysis of Au, Pd-coated Cu and Pd-doped Cu wire in microelectronics packaging.

    Chong Leong, Gan; Uda, Hashim

    2013-01-01

    This paper compares and discusses the wearout reliability and analysis of Gold (Au), Palladium (Pd) coated Cu and Pd-doped Cu wires used in fineline Ball Grid Array (BGA) package. Intermetallic compound (IMC) thickness measurement has been carried out to estimate the coefficient of diffusion (Do) under various aging conditions of different bonding wires. Wire pull and ball bond shear strengths have been analyzed and we found smaller variation in Pd-doped Cu wire compared to Au and Pd-doped Cu wire. Au bonds were identified to have faster IMC formation, compared to slower IMC growth of Cu. The obtained weibull slope, ? of three bonding wires are greater than 1.0 and belong to wearout reliability data point. Pd-doped Cu wire exhibits larger time-to-failure and cycles-to-failure in both wearout reliability tests in Highly Accelerated Temperature and Humidity (HAST) and Temperature Cycling (TC) tests. This proves Pd-doped Cu wire has a greater potential and higher reliability margin compared to Au and Pd-coated Cu wires. PMID:24244344

  10. Power electronics reliability analysis.

    Smith, Mark A.; Atcitty, Stanley

    2009-12-01

    This report provides the DOE and industry with a general process for analyzing power electronics reliability. The analysis can help with understanding the main causes of failures, downtime, and cost and how to reduce them. One approach is to collect field maintenance data and use it directly to calculate reliability metrics related to each cause. Another approach is to model the functional structure of the equipment using a fault tree to derive system reliability from component reliability. Analysis of a fictitious device demonstrates the latter process. Optimization can use the resulting baseline model to decide how to improve reliability and/or lower costs. It is recommended that both electric utilities and equipment manufacturers make provisions to collect and share data in order to lay the groundwork for improving reliability into the future. Reliability analysis helps guide reliability improvements in hardware and software technology including condition monitoring and prognostics and health management.

  11. Comparative Reliability Studies and Analysis of Au, Pd-Coated Cu and Pd-Doped Cu Wire in Microelectronics Packaging

    Chong Leong, Gan; Uda, Hashim

    2013-01-01

    This paper compares and discusses the wearout reliability and analysis of Gold (Au), Palladium (Pd) coated Cu and Pd-doped Cu wires used in fineline Ball Grid Array (BGA) package. Intermetallic compound (IMC) thickness measurement has been carried out to estimate the coefficient of diffusion (Do) under various aging conditions of different bonding wires. Wire pull and ball bond shear strengths have been analyzed and we found smaller variation in Pd-doped Cu wire compared to Au and Pd-doped Cu...

  12. Human reliability analysis

    The authors present a treatment of human reliability analysis incorporating an introduction to probabilistic risk assessment for nuclear power generating stations. They treat the subject according to the framework established for general systems theory. Draws upon reliability analysis, psychology, human factors engineering, and statistics, integrating elements of these fields within a systems framework. Provides a history of human reliability analysis, and includes examples of the application of the systems approach

  13. Introduction to reliability analysis

    Reliability analysis is concerned with the analysis of devices and systems whose individual components are prone to failure. This textbook presents an introduction to reliability analysis of repairable and nonrepairable systems. It is based on courses given to both undergraduate and graduate students of engineering and statistics as well as in workshops for professional engineers and scientists. The book concentrates on the methodology of the subject and on understanding theoretical results rather than on its theoretical development. An intrinsic aspect of reliability analysis is that the failure of components is best modelled using techniques drawn from probability and statistics. The author covers all the basic concepts required from these subjects and covers the main modern reliability analysis techniques thoroughly. These include: the graphical analysis of life data, maximum likelihood estimation, and Bayesian estimation. Throughout, the emphsis is on the practicalities of the subject with numerous examples drawn from industrial and engineering settings. (orig.) With 50 figs

  14. Comparing the treatment of uncertainty in Bayesian networks and fuzzy expert systems used for a human reliability analysis application

    The use of expert systems can be helpful to improve the transparency and repeatability of assessments in areas of risk analysis with limited data available. In this field, human reliability analysis (HRA) is no exception, and, in particular, dependence analysis is an HRA task strongly based on analyst judgement. The analysis of dependence among Human Failure Events refers to the assessment of the effect of an earlier human failure on the probability of the subsequent ones. This paper analyses and compares two expert systems, based on Bayesian Belief Networks and Fuzzy Logic (a Fuzzy Expert System, FES), respectively. The comparison shows that a BBN approach should be preferred in all the cases characterized by quantifiable uncertainty in the input (i.e. when probability distributions can be assigned to describe the input parameters uncertainty), since it provides a satisfactory representation of the uncertainty and its output is directly interpretable for use within PSA. On the other hand, in cases characterized by very limited knowledge, an analyst may feel constrained by the probabilistic framework, which requires assigning probability distributions for describing uncertainty. In these cases, the FES seems to lead to a more transparent representation of the input and output uncertainty. - Highlights: • We analyse treatment of uncertainty in two expert systems. • We compare a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) and a Fuzzy Expert System (FES). • We focus on the input assessment, inference engines and output assessment. • We focus on an application problem of interest for human reliability analysis. • We emphasize the application rather than math to reach non-BBN or FES specialists

  15. Comparative analysis of reliability of emergency power system of Bushehr nuclear power plant using PSA and Markov method

    Design of emergency power system of a nuclear power plant is important considering reliability and redundancy of systems, due to its share in the risk of the plant. Reliability of emergency power system of Bushehr nuclear power plant is evaluated and compared for both KWU and WWER design using fault tree/event tree and also Markov

  16. Risk analysis and reliability

    Mathematical foundations of risk analysis are addressed. The importance of having the same probability space in order to compare different experiments is pointed out. Then the following topics are discussed: consequences as random variables with infinite expectations; the phenomenon of rare events; series-parallel systems and different kinds of randomness that could be imposed on such systems; and the problem of consensus of estimates of expert opinion

  17. Reliability of bioimpedance analysis compared with other adiposity measurements in children: the FLVS II Study. : Bioimpedance fat measurement in children

    Kettaneh, Adrien; Heude, Barbara; Lommez, Agnès; Borys, Jean-Michel; Ducimetière, Pierre; Charles, Marie-Aline

    2005-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the reproducibility of the measurement of% body fat by bipedal biometrical impedance analysis (BIA) compared with anthropometric measurements of adiposity in children and the correlations between these methods in children and adults.METHODS: A cross-sectional study in a total of 1080 adults and children enrolled in 1999 in the Fleurbaix-Laventie Ville Sant?I (FLVS II) population-based study in northern France. The reproducibility of anthropometrical and BIA methods was ...

  18. Failure Analysis for Improved Reliability

    Sood, Bhanu

    2016-01-01

    Outline: Section 1 - What is reliability and root cause? Section 2 - Overview of failure mechanisms. Section 3 - Failure analysis techniques (1. Non destructive analysis techniques, 2. Destructive Analysis, 3. Materials Characterization). Section 4 - Summary and Closure

  19. NPP's auxiliaries reliability analysis

    The role of NPP auxiliaries (valves, heat-exchange equipment, water treatment equipment) in the provision of reliable and safe operation of NPPs with WWER-1000 and RBMK-1000 type reactors is evaluated. Basic indices of the auxiliary equipment safety are considered. A conclusion is drawn, that the auxiliary equipment is of sufficient (if not the leading) value in the provision of the NPP radiation safety being the main element of water treatment and NPP safety systems, which requires a high quality of its designing, production and operation directed to achieving the assigned reliability indices

  20. Integrating reliability analysis and design

    This report describes the Interactive Reliability Analysis Project and demonstrates the advantages of using computer-aided design systems (CADS) in reliability analysis. Common cause failure problems require presentations of systems, analysis of fault trees, and evaluation of solutions to these. Results have to be communicated between the reliability analyst and the system designer. Using a computer-aided design system saves time and money in the analysis of design. Computer-aided design systems lend themselves to cable routing, valve and switch lists, pipe routing, and other component studies. At EG and G Idaho, Inc., the Applicon CADS is being applied to the study of water reactor safety systems

  1. Reliability analysis of shutdown system

    Kumar, C. Senthil [Aerb-Safety Research Institute, IGCAR Campus, Kalpakkam 603102 (India)]. E-mail: cskumar@igcar.ernet.in; John Arul, A. [Indira Gandhi Centre For Atomic Research, Kalpakkam 603102 (India); Pal Singh, Om [Atomic Energy Regulatory Board, Niyamak Bhavan, Anushaktinagar, Mumbai 400094 (India); Suryaprakasa Rao, K. [Industrial Engineering Division, Anna University, Chennai 60025 (India)

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents the results of reliability analysis of Shutdown System (SDS) of Indian Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor. Reliability analysis carried out using Fault Tree Analysis predicts a value of 3.5 x 10{sup -8}/de for failure of shutdown function in case of global faults and 4.4 x 10{sup -8}/de for local faults. Based on 20 de/y, the frequency of shutdown function failure is 0.7 x 10{sup -6}/ry, which meets the reliability target, set by the Indian Atomic Energy Regulatory Board. The reliability is limited by Common Cause Failure (CCF) of actuation part of SDS and to a lesser extent CCF of electronic components. The failure frequency of individual systems is <1 x 10{sup -3}/ry, which also meets the safety criteria. Uncertainty analysis indicates a maximum error factor of 5 for the top event unavailability.

  2. Reliability analysis of shutdown system

    This paper presents the results of reliability analysis of Shutdown System (SDS) of Indian Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor. Reliability analysis carried out using Fault Tree Analysis predicts a value of 3.5 x 10-8/de for failure of shutdown function in case of global faults and 4.4 x 10-8/de for local faults. Based on 20 de/y, the frequency of shutdown function failure is 0.7 x 10-6/ry, which meets the reliability target, set by the Indian Atomic Energy Regulatory Board. The reliability is limited by Common Cause Failure (CCF) of actuation part of SDS and to a lesser extent CCF of electronic components. The failure frequency of individual systems is -3/ry, which also meets the safety criteria. Uncertainty analysis indicates a maximum error factor of 5 for the top event unavailability

  3. Reliability Estimation in Interaction Analysis.

    Weider-Hatfield, Deborah; Hatfield, John D.

    1984-01-01

    Evaluation approaches to measuring reliabilty in interaction analysis by (1) presenting criteria for a sound reliability estimate, (2) evaluating currently used tests against these criteria, and (3) discussing application of appropriate tests to interaction data. (PD)

  4. Reliability Analysis of Wind Turbines

    Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2008-01-01

    In order to minimise the total expected life-cycle costs of a wind turbine it is important to estimate the reliability level for all components in the wind turbine. This paper deals with reliability analysis for the tower and blades of onshore wind turbines placed in a wind farm. The limit states...... consideres are in the ultimate limit state (ULS) extreme conditions in the standstill position and extreme conditions during operating. For wind turbines, where the magnitude of the loads is influenced by the control system, the ultimate limit state can occur in both cases. In the fatigue limit state (FLS......) the reliability level for a wind turbine placed in a wind farm is considered, and wake effects from neighbouring wind turbines is taken into account. An illustrative example with calculation of the reliability for mudline bending of the tower is considered. In the example the design is determined...

  5. Applications of reliability degradation analysis

    Reliability degradation analysis is the analysis of the occurrences of degradations and the times of maintenance to determine their reliability and risk implications. A program is presented for applying reliability degradation analyses to maintenance data collected at nuclear power plants. As a specific part of the program, time trending of maintenance data is illustrated. Maintenance data on residual heat removal (RHR) pumps and service water (SW) pumps at selected boiling water reactor (BWR) plants are evaluated to show how trends in maintenance data, which generally do not involve failures, can be used to understand effectiveness of maintenance. These trends also are translated to specific impacts on pump unavailability and on core-damage frequency (assuming that the trends in failure rate are the same as those observed for degradation rate). The second application shows the use of reliability degradation analysis to quantitatively evaluate the effect of maintenance, i.e., the quantitative change in component unavailability when no maintenance is performed. Assessment of these impacts are important since they measure the reliability and risk impacts of maintenance and can be fed back to the maintenance program to improve its effectiveness

  6. Reliability analysis of phased missions

    In a phased mission the relevant system configuration (block diagram or fault tree) changes during consecutive time periods (phases). Many systems are required to perform phased missions. A classic example is a space vehicle. A reliability analysis for a phased mission encounters complexities not present with just one phase, but can be transformed into an analysis of a synthetic single phase case. The transformation has a potential for direct application, or can be used to study various computational algorithms and approximations

  7. RELIABILITY ANALYSIS USING SIMULATION MODELLING

    S.J. Claasen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The reliability analysis of complex systems may often become unmanageable. especially when state or time dependent failure rate~, repair facilities and standby operations are present in a system. This paper describes the possible use of a simulation approach and the development of a reliability. availability and maintainability simulator which may be used to alleviate some of the disadvantages inherent in the traditional analytical approach.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die analise van die betroubaarheid van 'n komplekse stelsel mag 50ms onhanteerbaar raak veral indien die stelsel toestand- of tydafhanklike falingsternpo's, herstelfasiliteite en bystandtoerusting insluit. Hierdieartikel beskryf die moontlike toepassing van 'n simulas.iebenadering asook die ontwikkeling van 'n betroubaarheid-. beskikbaarhe.id- en instandhoubaarheidsimulator wat gebruik mag word om sommige van die nadele, inherent aan die tradisionele analitiese benadering, te oorkern.

  8. Reliability analysis of reactor emergency shutdown system

    The reliability analysis of emergency shutdown system was made for the nuclear power reacter. Fault Tree Analysis was adopted to this analysis. The failure data of WASH-1400 report were applied to calculation of system failure probability, and it was assumed that the deficiency for emergency shutdown requirement corresponded to the failure of insertion of two or more control rods. The interval of emergency shutdown test was assumed to be once a year. The result of this analysis is compared with several other typical examples. (author)

  9. Human Reliability Analysis: session summary

    The use of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) to identify and resolve human factors issues has significantly increased over the past two years. Today, utilities, research institutions, consulting firms, and the regulatory agency have found a common application of HRA tools and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). The ''1985 IEEE Third Conference on Human Factors and Power Plants'' devoted three sessions to the discussion of these applications and a review of the insights so gained. This paper summarizes the three sessions and presents those common conclusions that were discussed during the meeting. The paper concludes that session participants supported the use of an adequately documented ''living PRA'' to address human factors issues in design and procedural changes, regulatory compliance, and training and that the techniques can produce cost effective qualitative results that are complementary to more classical human factors methods

  10. Software reliability analysis in probabilistic risk analysis

    Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) is a tool which can reveal shortcomings of the NPP design in general. PRA analysts have not had sufficient guiding principles in modelling particular digital components malfunctions. Digital I and C systems are mostly analysed simply and the software reliability estimates are engineering judgments often lacking a proper justification. The OECD/NEA Working Group RISK's task DIGREL develops a taxonomy of failure modes of digital I and C systems. The EU FP7 project HARMONICS develops software reliability estimation method based on an analytic approach and Bayesian belief network. (author)

  11. On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

    The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person's state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs

  12. On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

    Soerensen Ringi, M.

    1995-05-01

    The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person`s state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs.

  13. Reliability Analysis of an Offshore Structure

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle; Rackwitz, R.; Bryla, P.

    variables are desenbed using spline fundion response surfaces. A Laplace integral expansion is used to estimate the time variant reliability. Parameter studies are performed for the reliability estimates and the results of the time variant and the time invariant reliability analyses are compared....

  14. Power system reliability analysis using fault trees

    The power system reliability analysis method is developed from the aspect of reliable delivery of electrical energy to customers. The method is developed based on the fault tree analysis, which is widely applied in the Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). The method is adapted for the power system reliability analysis. The method is developed in a way that only the basic reliability parameters of the analysed power system are necessary as an input for the calculation of reliability indices of the system. The modeling and analysis was performed on an example power system consisting of eight substations. The results include the level of reliability of current power system configuration, the combinations of component failures resulting in a failed power delivery to loads, and the importance factors for components and subsystems. (author)

  15. Reliability Analysis of Money Habitudes

    Delgadillo, Lucy M.; Bushman, Brittani S.

    2015-01-01

    Use of the Money Habitudes exercise has gained popularity among various financial professionals. This article reports on the reliability of this resource. A survey administered to young adults at a western state university was conducted, and each Habitude or "domain" was analyzed using Cronbach's alpha procedures. Results showed all six…

  16. Reliability analysis of VHTR reserve shutdown system

    A reliability analysis of the reserve shutdown system of the VHTR (Very High Temperature Reactor) has been carried out by means of the fault tree method. The reserve shutdown system investigated in this paper is a rupture disc type. In this analysis, logic failure (the initiation signal system failure for the reserve shutdown system) and hardware failure are considered. Through this reliability analysis, the high reliability of the reserve shutdown system of the VHTR was verified. Furthermore we have obtained valuable information concerning how to improve the reliability of the reserve shutdown system of the VHTR. (author)

  17. Reliability Analysis of High Rockfill Dam Stability

    Ping Yi; Jun Liu; Chunlei Xu

    2015-01-01

    A program 3DSTAB combining slope stability analysis and reliability analysis is developed and validated. In this program, the limit equilibrium method is utilized to calculate safety factors of critical slip surfaces. The first-order reliability method is used to compute reliability indexes corresponding to critical probabilistic surfaces. When derivatives of the performance function are calculated by finite difference method, the previous iterations critical slip surface is saved and used. ...

  18. Satellite and satellite subsystems reliability: Statistical data analysis and modeling

    Reliability has long been recognized as a critical attribute for space systems. Unfortunately, limited on-orbit failure data and statistical analyses of satellite reliability exist in the literature. To fill this gap, we recently conducted a nonparametric analysis of satellite reliability for 1584 Earth-orbiting satellites launched between January 1990 and October 2008. In this paper, we extend our statistical analysis of satellite reliability and investigate satellite subsystems reliability. Because our dataset is censored, we make extensive use of the Kaplan-Meier estimator for calculating the reliability functions. We derive confidence intervals for the nonparametric reliability results for each subsystem and conduct parametric fits with Weibull distributions using the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) approach. We finally conduct a comparative analysis of subsystems failure, identifying the 'culprit subsystems' that drive satellite unreliability. The results here presented should prove particularly useful to the space industry for example in redesigning subsystem test and screening programs, or providing an empirical basis for redundancy allocation.

  19. Reliability analysis of software based safety functions

    The methods applicable in the reliability analysis of software based safety functions are described in the report. Although the safety functions also include other components, the main emphasis in the report is on the reliability analysis of software. The check list type qualitative reliability analysis methods, such as failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), are described, as well as the software fault tree analysis. The safety analysis based on the Petri nets is discussed. The most essential concepts and models of quantitative software reliability analysis are described. The most common software metrics and their combined use with software reliability models are discussed. The application of software reliability models in PSA is evaluated; it is observed that the recent software reliability models do not produce the estimates needed in PSA directly. As a result from the study some recommendations and conclusions are drawn. The need of formal methods in the analysis and development of software based systems, the applicability of qualitative reliability engineering methods in connection to PSA and the need to make more precise the requirements for software based systems and their analyses in the regulatory guides should be mentioned. (orig.). (46 refs., 13 figs., 1 tab.)

  20. How to assess and compare inter-rater reliability, agreement and correlation of ratings: an exemplary analysis of mother-father and parent-teacher expressive vocabulary rating pairs

    MargaritaStolarova

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This report has two main purposes. First, we combine well-known analytical approaches to conduct a comprehensive assessment of agreement and correlation of rating-pairs and to dis-entangle these often confused concepts, providing a best-practice example on concrete data and a tutorial for future reference. Second, we explore whether a screening questionnaire deve-loped for use with parents can be reliably employed with daycare teachers when assessing early expressive vocabulary. A total of 53 vocabulary rating pairs (34 parent-teacher and 19 mother-father pairs collected for two-year-old children (12 bilingual are evaluated. First, inter-rater reliability both within and across subgroups is assessed using the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC. Next, based on this analysis of reliability and on the test-retest reliability of the employed tool, inter-rater agreement is analyzed, magnitude and direction of rating differences are considered. Finally, Pearson correlation coefficients of standardized vocabulary scores are calculated and compared across subgroups. The results underline the necessity to distinguish between reliability measures, agreement and correlation. They also demonstrate the impact of the employed reliability on agreement evaluations. This study provides evidence that parent-teacher ratings of children’s early vocabulary can achieve agreement and correlation comparable to those of mother-father ratings on the assessed vocabulary scale. Bilingualism of the evaluated child decreased the likelihood of raters’ agreement. We conclude that future reports of agree-ment, correlation and reliability of ratings will benefit from better definition of terms and stricter methodological approaches. The methodological tutorial provided here holds the potential to increase comparability across empirical reports and can help improve research practices and knowledge transfer to educational and therapeutic settings.

  1. Integrated Methodology for Software Reliability Analysis

    Marian Pompiliu CRISTESCU

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The most used techniques to ensure safety and reliability of the systems are applied together as a whole, and in most cases, the software components are usually overlooked or to little analyzed. The present paper describes the applicability of fault trees analysis software system, analysis defined as Software Fault Tree Analysis (SFTA, fault trees are evaluated using binary decision diagrams, all of these being integrated and used with help from Java library reliability.

  2. Analysis of information security reliability: A tutorial

    This article presents a concise reliability analysis of network security abstracted from stochastic modeling, reliability, and queuing theories. Network security analysis is composed of threats, their impacts, and recovery of the failed systems. A unique framework with a collection of the key reliability models is presented here to guide the determination of the system reliability based on the strength of malicious acts and performance of the recovery processes. A unique model, called Attack-obstacle model, is also proposed here for analyzing systems with immunity growth features. Most computer science curricula do not contain courses in reliability modeling applicable to different areas of computer engineering. Hence, the topic of reliability analysis is often too diffuse to most computer engineers and researchers dealing with network security. This work is thus aimed at shedding some light on this issue, which can be useful in identifying models, their assumptions and practical parameters for estimating the reliability of threatened systems and for assessing the performance of recovery facilities. It can also be useful for the classification of processes and states regarding the reliability of information systems. Systems with stochastic behaviors undergoing queue operations and random state transitions can also benefit from the approaches presented here. - Highlights: • A concise survey and tutorial in model-based reliability analysis applicable to information security. • A framework of key modeling approaches for assessing reliability of networked systems. • The framework facilitates quantitative risk assessment tasks guided by stochastic modeling and queuing theory. • Evaluation of approaches and models for modeling threats, failures, impacts, and recovery analysis of information systems

  3. Space Mission Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Project

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The purpose of this project is to extend current ground-based Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) techniques to a long-duration, space-based tool to more effectively...

  4. Production Facility System Reliability Analysis Report

    Dale, Crystal Buchanan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Klein, Steven Karl [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-10-06

    This document describes the reliability, maintainability, and availability (RMA) modeling of the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) design for the Closed Loop Helium Cooling System (CLHCS) planned for the NorthStar accelerator-based 99Mo production facility. The current analysis incorporates a conceptual helium recovery system, beam diagnostics, and prototype control system into the reliability analysis. The results from the 1000 hr blower test are addressed.

  5. Generation and analysis of large reliability models

    Palumbo, Daniel L.; Nicol, David M.

    1990-01-01

    An effort has been underway for several years at NASA's Langley Research Center to extend the capability of Markov modeling techniques for reliability analysis to the designers of highly reliable avionic systems. This effort has been focused in the areas of increased model abstraction and increased computational capability. The reliability model generator (RMG), a software tool which uses as input a graphical, object-oriented block diagram of the system, is discussed. RMG uses an automated failure modes-effects analysis algorithm to produce the reliability model from the graphical description. Also considered is the ASSURE software tool, a parallel processing program which uses the ASSIST modeling language and SURE semi-Markov solution technique. An executable failure modes-effects analysis is used by ASSURE. The successful combination of the power of graphical representation, automated model generation, and parallel computation leads to the conclusion that large system architectures can now be analyzed.

  6. Integrating Reliability Analysis with a Performance Tool

    Nicol, David M.; Palumbo, Daniel L.; Ulrey, Michael

    1995-01-01

    A large number of commercial simulation tools support performance oriented studies of complex computer and communication systems. Reliability of these systems, when desired, must be obtained by remodeling the system in a different tool. This has obvious drawbacks: (1) substantial extra effort is required to create the reliability model; (2) through modeling error the reliability model may not reflect precisely the same system as the performance model; (3) as the performance model evolves one must continuously reevaluate the validity of assumptions made in that model. In this paper we describe an approach, and a tool that implements this approach, for integrating a reliability analysis engine into a production quality simulation based performance modeling tool, and for modeling within such an integrated tool. The integrated tool allows one to use the same modeling formalisms to conduct both performance and reliability studies. We describe how the reliability analysis engine is integrated into the performance tool, describe the extensions made to the performance tool to support the reliability analysis, and consider the tool's performance.

  7. Logic reliability analysis of adaptive control strategies

    An approach is developed for the evaluation of the reliability of logic of adaptive control strategies, taking into account logic structural complexity and potential failure of programming modules. Flaws in the control system algorithm may not be discovered during debugging or initial testing and may only affect the performance under abnormal situations although the system may appear reliable in normal operations. Considering an adaptive control system designed for use in control of equipment employed in nuclear power stations, logic reliability evaluation is demonstrated. The approach given is applicable to any other designs and may be used to compare different control system logic structures from the reliability viewpoint. Evaluation of the reliability of control systems is essential to automated operation of equipment used in nuclear power plants. (author)

  8. Reliability analysis method in probabilistic risk assessment

    Technical adequacy of probabilistic risk assessment is a prerequisite for risk-informed applications for the nuclear power plants. One of the elements for assuring the adequacy is reliability parameter estimation for the inputs to risk analysis. In the U.S., where the PRA technique was originally developed, Bayesian statistics has been used for uncertainty analysis and periodical update for the reliability parameters in the each plant. In contrast, the Japanese PRAs do not adopt Bayesian method and still rely on the obsolete U.S. generic data developed in 1980s instead of reflecting the domestic component reliability performance. The reason is considered to be that Bayesian statistics is a minor discipline and little references for Bayesian reliability analysis are available in Japan. In this study, Bayesian reliability analysis methods were investigated to point out unfamiliar and misunderstood aspects of the methods. In addition, trial estimation of reliability parameters using the Japanese component failure data in NUCIA was implemented to identify issues to be resolved. (author)

  9. Reliability graph with general gates (RGGG). A novel method for reliability analysis

    There are several methods for system reliability analysis such as reliability graphs, fault tree analyses, Markov chains, and Monte Carlo simulations. Among the existing methods, the reliability graphs are the most intuitive modeling method, but they are not widely used due to their limited expression power. In this paper, an intuitive and practical method for system reliability analysis named the reliability graph with general gates (RGGG) is reviewed. The proposed method introduces general gates to the conventional reliability graph method, which creates a one-to-one match from the actual structure of the system to the reliability graph of the system. A quantitative evaluation method is proposed by transforming the RGGG to an equivalent Bayesian network without losing the intuitiveness of the model. In addition, a method of analyzing the dynamic systems and repairable systems which uses the RGGG is introduced, and appropriate algorithms for the quantitative analyses are explained. It is concluded that the RGGG method is intuitive and easy-to-use in the analyses of static, dynamic, and repairable systems compared with other methods while its analysis results are the same as those of other methods. (author)

  10. Reliability analysis techniques for the design engineer

    A fault tree analysis package is described that eliminates most of the housekeeping tasks involved in proceeding from the initial construction of a fault tree to the final stage of presenting a reliability analysis in a safety report. It is suitable for designers with relatively little training in reliability analysis and computer operation. Users can rapidly investigate the reliability implications of various options at the design stage, and evolve a system which meets specified reliability objectives. Later independent review is thus unlikely to reveal major shortcomings necessitating modification and projects delays. The package operates interactively allowing the user to concentrate on the creative task of developing the system fault tree, which may be modified and displayed graphically. For preliminary analysis system data can be derived automatically from a generic data bank. As the analysis procedes improved estimates of critical failure rates and test and maintenance schedules can be inserted. The computations are standard, - identification of minimal cut-sets, estimation of reliability parameters, and ranking of the effect of the individual component failure modes and system failure modes on these parameters. The user can vary the fault trees and data on-line, and print selected data for preferred systems in a form suitable for inclusion in safety reports. A case history is given - that of HIFAR containment isolation system. (author)

  11. RHR system reliability analysis of Krsko NPP

    In this paper Systems reliability analysis is applied to residual heat Removal System in Krsko NPP. Fault tree method is used. Qualitative analysis of the fault tree was made using FTAP-2 computer code, and quantitative using IMPORT code. results are evaluated and their possible application is given. (author)

  12. A comparative study on the HW reliability assessment methods for digital I and C equipment

    Jung, Hoan Sung; Sung, T. Y.; Eom, H. S.; Park, J. K.; Kang, H. G.; Lee, G. Y. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea); Kim, M. C. [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejeon (Korea); Jun, S. T. [KHNP, Taejeon (Korea)

    2002-03-01

    It is necessary to predict or to evaluate the reliability of electronic equipment for the probabilistic safety analysis of digital instrument and control equipment. But most databases for the reliability prediction have no data for the up-to-date equipment and the failure modes are not classified. The prediction results for the specific component show different values according to the methods and databases. For boards and systems each method shows different values than others also. This study is for reliability prediction of PDC system for Wolsong NPP1 as a digital I and C equipment. Various reliability prediction methods and failure databases are used in calculation of the reliability to compare the effects of sensitivity and accuracy of each model and database. Many considerations for the reliability assessment of digital systems are derived with the results of this study. 14 refs., 19 figs., 15 tabs. (Author)

  13. Reliability modelling and analysis of thermal MEMS

    This paper presents a MEMS reliability study methodology based on the novel concept of 'virtual prototyping'. This methodology can be used for the development of reliable sensors or actuators and also to characterize their behaviour in specific use conditions and applications. The methodology is demonstrated on the U-shaped micro electro thermal actuator used as test vehicle. To demonstrate this approach, a 'virtual prototype' has been developed with the modeling tools MatLab and VHDL-AMS. A best practice FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) is applied on the thermal MEMS to investigate and assess the failure mechanisms. Reliability study is performed by injecting the identified defaults into the 'virtual prototype'. The reliability characterization methodology predicts the evolution of the behavior of these MEMS as a function of the number of cycles of operation and specific operational conditions

  14. Culture Representation in Human Reliability Analysis

    David Gertman; Julie Marble; Steven Novack

    2006-12-01

    Understanding human-system response is critical to being able to plan and predict mission success in the modern battlespace. Commonly, human reliability analysis has been used to predict failures of human performance in complex, critical systems. However, most human reliability methods fail to take culture into account. This paper takes an easily understood state of the art human reliability analysis method and extends that method to account for the influence of culture, including acceptance of new technology, upon performance. The cultural parameters used to modify the human reliability analysis were determined from two standard industry approaches to cultural assessment: Hofstede’s (1991) cultural factors and Davis’ (1989) technology acceptance model (TAM). The result is called the Culture Adjustment Method (CAM). An example is presented that (1) reviews human reliability assessment with and without cultural attributes for a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system attack, (2) demonstrates how country specific information can be used to increase the realism of HRA modeling, and (3) discusses the differences in human error probability estimates arising from cultural differences.

  15. Reliability Analysis of a Steel Frame

    M. Skora

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available A steel frame with haunches is designed according to Eurocodes. The frame is exposed to self-weight, snow, and wind actions. Lateral-torsional buckling appears to represent the most critical criterion, which is considered as a basis for the limit state function. In the reliability analysis, the probabilistic models proposed by the Joint Committee for Structural Safety (JCSS are used for basic variables. The uncertainty model coefficients take into account the inaccuracy of the resistance model for the haunched girder and the inaccuracy of the action effect model. The time invariant reliability analysis is based on Turkstra's rule for combinations of snow and wind actions. The time variant analysis describes snow and wind actions by jump processes with intermittencies. Assuming a 50-year lifetime, the obtained values of the reliability index b vary within the range from 3.95 up to 5.56. The cross-profile IPE 330 designed according to Eurocodes seems to be adequate. It appears that the time invariant reliability analysis based on Turkstra's rule provides considerably lower values of b than those obtained by the time variant analysis.

  16. How useful and reliable are disaster databases in the context of climate and global change? A comparative case study analysis in Peru

    Huggel, C.; Raissig, A.; Rohrer, M; Romero, G.; Diaz, A.; Salzmann, N

    2015-01-01

    Damage caused by weather- and climate-related disasters have increased over the past decades, and growing exposure and wealth have been identified as main drivers of this increase. Disaster databases are a primary tool for the analysis of disaster characteristics and trends at global or national scales, and they support disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, the quality, consistency and completeness of different disaster databases are highly variable...

  17. How useful and reliable are disaster databases in the context of climate and global change? A comparative case study analysis in Peru

    Huggel, Christian; Raissig, Annik; Rohrer, Mario; Romero, Gilberto; Diaz, A.; Salzmann, Nadine

    2015-01-01

    Damage caused by weather- and climate-related disasters have increased over the past decades, and growing exposure and wealth have been identified as main drivers of this increase. Disaster databases are a primary tool for the analysis of disaster characteristics and trends at global or national scales, and they support disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, the quality, consistency and completeness of different disaster databases are highly variable. Even though such...

  18. Reliability Analysis of High Temperature Reactor Fuels

    This paper presents the results of reliability analysis of the TRISO -coated fuel particles for the High Temperature Test Reactor (HTTR), Japan. The reliability of fuel particle was evaluated based on the failure probability of each coating layer, and only the failure due to internal gas pressure and shrinkage of pyrolytic carbon (PyC) layer was considered The analysis results show that, no significant failure occurs up to about 45 MWd/kgU for the first core fuel particle and up to about 75 MWd/kgU for the reload core fuel particle. The fuel particle is predicted to fail completely at about 50 MWd/kgU for the first core fuel particle and at about 85 MWd/kgU for the reload core fuel particle. This results show that the TRISO -coated fuel particle for the HTTR to have high reliability. No failure occurs up to the maximum burnup design level, i.e. 33 MWd/kgU for the first core fuel particle and 60 MWd/kgU for the reload core fuel particle. The analysis results show also that the fuel particle reliability (coating layers) depends on the irradiation temperature. The failure occurs at lower burnup if the irradiation temperature increases. (author)

  19. Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

    This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

  20. Human reliability analysis of control room operators

    Santos, Isaac J.A.L.; Carvalho, Paulo Victor R.; Grecco, Claudio H.S. [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2005-07-01

    Human reliability is the probability that a person correctly performs some system required action in a required time period and performs no extraneous action that can degrade the system Human reliability analysis (HRA) is the analysis, prediction and evaluation of work-oriented human performance using some indices as human error likelihood and probability of task accomplishment. Significant progress has been made in the HRA field during the last years, mainly in nuclear area. Some first-generation HRA methods were developed, as THERP (Technique for human error rate prediction). Now, an array of called second-generation methods are emerging as alternatives, for instance ATHEANA (A Technique for human event analysis). The ergonomics approach has as tool the ergonomic work analysis. It focus on the study of operator's activities in physical and mental form, considering at the same time the observed characteristics of operator and the elements of the work environment as they are presented to and perceived by the operators. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology to analyze the human reliability of the operators of industrial plant control room, using a framework that includes the approach used by ATHEANA, THERP and the work ergonomics analysis. (author)

  1. Advances in human reliability analysis in Mexico

    Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a very important part of Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA), and constant work is dedicated to improving methods, guidance and data in order to approach realism in the results as well as looking for ways to use these to reduce accident frequency at plants. Further, in order to advance in these areas, several HRA studies are being performed globally. Mexico has participated in the International HRA Empirical study with the objective of -benchmarking- HRA methods by comparing HRA predictions to actual crew performance in a simulator, as well as in the empirical study on a US nuclear power plant currently in progress. The focus of the first study was the development of an understanding of how methods are applied by various analysts, and characterize the methods for their capability to guide the analysts to identify potential human failures, and associated causes and performance shaping factors. The HRA benchmarking study has been performed by using the Halden simulator, 14 European crews, and 15 HRA equipment s (NRC, EPRI, and foreign HRA equipment s using different HRA methods). This effort in Mexico is reflected through the work being performed on updating the Laguna Verde PRA to comply with the ASME PRA standard. In order to be considered an HRA with technical adequacy, that is, be considered as a capability category II, for risk-informed applications, the methodology used for the HRA in the original PRA is not considered sufficiently detailed, and the methodology had to upgraded. The HCR/CBDT/THERP method was chosen, since this is used in many nuclear plants with similar design. The HRA update includes identification and evaluation of human errors that can occur during testing and maintenance, as well as human errors that can occur during an accident using the Emergency Operating Procedures. The review of procedures for maintenance, surveillance and operation is a necessary step in HRA and provides insight into the possible mechanisms for human error at the plant. (Author)

  2. Sensitivity analysis in a structural reliability context

    This thesis' subject is sensitivity analysis in a structural reliability context. The general framework is the study of a deterministic numerical model that allows to reproduce a complex physical phenomenon. The aim of a reliability study is to estimate the failure probability of the system from the numerical model and the uncertainties of the inputs. In this context, the quantification of the impact of the uncertainty of each input parameter on the output might be of interest. This step is called sensitivity analysis. Many scientific works deal with this topic but not in the reliability scope. This thesis' aim is to test existing sensitivity analysis methods, and to propose more efficient original methods. A bibliographical step on sensitivity analysis on one hand and on the estimation of small failure probabilities on the other hand is first proposed. This step raises the need to develop appropriate techniques. Two variables ranking methods are then explored. The first one proposes to make use of binary classifiers (random forests). The second one measures the departure, at each step of a subset method, between each input original density and the density given the subset reached. A more general and original methodology reflecting the impact of the input density modification on the failure probability is then explored. The proposed methods are then applied on the CWNR case, which motivates this thesis. (author)

  3. Human reliability analysis using event trees

    The shut-down procedure of a technologically complex installation as a nuclear power plant consists of a lot of human actions, some of which have to be performed several times. The procedure is regarded as a chain of modules of specific actions, some of which are analyzed separately. The analysis is carried out by making a Human Reliability Analysis event tree (HRA event tree) of each action, breaking down each action into small elementary steps. The application of event trees in human reliability analysis implies more difficulties than in the case of technical systems where event trees were mainly used until now. The most important reason is that the operator is able to recover a wrong performance; memory influences play a significant role. In this study these difficulties are dealt with theoretically. The following conclusions can be drawn: (1) in principle event trees may be used in human reliability analysis; (2) although in practice the operator will recover his fault partly, theoretically this can be described as starting the whole event tree again; (3) compact formulas have been derived, by which the probability of reaching a specific failure consequence on passing through the HRA event tree after several times of recovery is to be calculated. (orig.)

  4. Comparative reliability of cheiloscopy and palatoscopy in human identification

    Sharma Preeti

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Establishing a person?s identity in postmortem scenarios can be a very difficult process. Dental records, fingerprint and DNA comparisons are probably the most common techniques used in this context, allowing fast and reliable identification processes. However, under certain circumstances they cannot always be used; sometimes it is necessary to apply different and less known techniques. In forensic identification, lip prints and palatal rugae patterns can lead us to important information and help in a person?s identification. This study aims to ascertain the use of lip prints and palatal rugae pattern in identification and sex differentiation. Materials and Methods: A total of 100 subjects, 50 males and 50 females were selected from among the students of Subharti Dental College, Meerut. The materials used to record lip prints were lipstick, bond paper, cellophane tape, a brush for applying the lipstick, and a magnifying lens. To study palatal rugae, alginate impressions were taken and the dental casts analyzed for their various patterns. Results: Statistical analysis (applying Z-test for proportion showed significant difference for type I, I?, IV and V lip patterns (P < 0.05 in males and females, while no significant difference was observed for the same in the palatal rugae patterns (P > 0.05. Conclusion: This study not only showed that palatal rugae and lip prints are unique to an individual, but also that lip prints is more reliable for recognition of the sex of an individual.

  5. Structural reliability analysis and seismic risk assessment

    This paper presents a reliability analysis method for safety evaluation of nuclear structures. By utilizing this method, it is possible to estimate the limit state probability in the lifetime of structures and to generate analytically the fragility curves for PRA studies. The earthquake ground acceleration, in this approach, is represented by a segment of stationary Gaussian process with a zero mean and a Kanai-Tajimi Spectrum. All possible seismic hazard at a site represented by a hazard curve is also taken into consideration. Furthermore, the limit state of a structure is analytically defined and the corresponding limit state surface is then established. Finally, the fragility curve is generated and the limit state probability is evaluated. In this paper, using a realistic reinforced concrete containment as an example, results of the reliability analysis of the containment subjected to dead load, live load and ground earthquake acceleration are presented and a fragility curve for PRA studies is also constructed

  6. Bridging Resilience Engineering and Human Reliability Analysis

    Ronald L. Boring

    2010-06-01

    There has been strong interest in the new and emerging field called resilience engineering. This field has been quick to align itself with many existing safety disciplines, but it has also distanced itself from the field of human reliability analysis. To date, the discussion has been somewhat one-sided, with much discussion about the new insights afforded by resilience engineering. This paper presents an attempt to address resilience engineering from the perspective of human reliability analysis (HRA). It is argued that HRA shares much in common with resilience engineering and that, in fact, it can help strengthen nascent ideas in resilience engineering. This paper seeks to clarify and ultimately refute the arguments that have served to divide HRA and resilience engineering.

  7. A comparative study on the reliability of open cluster parameters

    Netopil, M; Carraro, G

    2015-01-01

    Open clusters are known as excellent tracers of the structure and chemical evolution of the Galactic disk, however, the accuracy and reliability of open cluster parameters is poorly known. In recent years, several studies aimed to present homogeneous open cluster parameter compilations, which are based on some different approaches and photometric data. These catalogues are excellent sources to facilitate testing of the actual accuracy of open cluster parameters. We compare seven cluster parameter compilations statistically and with an external sample, which comprises the mean results of individual studies. Furthermore, we selected the objects IC 4651, NGC 2158, NGC 2383, NGC 2489, NGC 2627, NGC 6603, and Trumpler 14, with the main aim to highlight differences in the fitting solutions. We derived correction terms for each cluster parameter, using the external calibration sample. Most results by the compilations are reasonable scaled, but there are trends or constant offsets of different degree. We also identif...

  8. A comparative evaluation of five human reliability assessment techniques

    A field experiment was undertaken to evaluate the accuracy, usefulness, and resources requirements of five human reliability quantification techniques (Techniques for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP); Paired Comparisons, Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART), Success Liklihood Index Method (SLIM)-Multi Attribute Utility Decomposition (MAUD), and Absolute Probability Judgement). This was achieved by assessing technique predictions against a set of known human error probabilities, and by comparing their predictions on a set of five realistic Probabilisitc Risk Assessment (PRA) human error. On a combined measure of accuracy THERP and Absolute Probability Judgement performed best, whilst HEART showed indications of accuracy and was lower in resources usage than other techniques. HEART and THERP both appear to benefit from using trained assessors in order to obtain the best results. SLIM and Paired Comparisons require further research on achieving a robust calibration relationship between their scale values and absolute probabilities. (author)

  9. Small nuclear power reactor emergency electric power supply system reliability comparative analysis; Analise da confiabilidade do sistema de suprimento de energia eletrica de emergencia de um reator nuclear de pequeno porte

    Bonfietti, Gerson

    2003-07-01

    This work presents an analysis of the reliability of the emergency power supply system, of a small size nuclear power reactor. Three different configurations are investigated and their reliability analyzed. The fault tree method is used as the main tool of analysis. The work includes a bibliographic review of emergency diesel generator reliability and a discussion of the design requirements applicable to emergency electrical systems. The influence of common cause failure influences is considered using the beta factor model. The operator action is considered using human failure probabilities. A parametric analysis shows the strong dependence between the reactor safety and the loss of offsite electric power supply. It is also shown that common cause failures can be a major contributor to the system reliability. (author)

  10. Sensitivity analysis in optimization and reliability problems

    Castillo, Enrique [Department of Applied Mathematics and Computational Sciences, University of Cantabria, Avda. Castros s/n., 39005 Santander (Spain)], E-mail: castie@unican.es; Minguez, Roberto [Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Castilla-La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain)], E-mail: roberto.minguez@uclm.es; Castillo, Carmen [Department of Civil Engineering, University of Castilla-La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain)], E-mail: mariacarmen.castillo@uclm.es

    2008-12-15

    The paper starts giving the main results that allow a sensitivity analysis to be performed in a general optimization problem, including sensitivities of the objective function, the primal and the dual variables with respect to data. In particular, general results are given for non-linear programming, and closed formulas for linear programming problems are supplied. Next, the methods are applied to a collection of civil engineering reliability problems, which includes a bridge crane, a retaining wall and a composite breakwater. Finally, the sensitivity analysis formulas are extended to calculus of variations problems and a slope stability problem is used to illustrate the methods.

  11. Representative Sampling for reliable data analysis

    Petersen, Lars; Esbensen, Kim Harry

    regime in order to secure the necessary reliability of: samples (which must be representative, from the primary sampling onwards), analysis (which will not mean anything outside the miniscule analytical volume without representativity ruling all mass reductions involved, also in the laboratory) and data...... analysis (“data” do not exist in isolation of their provenance). The Total Sampling Error (TSE) is by far the dominating contribution to all analytical endeavours, often 100+ times larger than the Total Analytical Error (TAE).We present a summarizing set of only seven Sampling Unit Operations (SUOs) that...

  12. Sensitivity analysis in optimization and reliability problems

    The paper starts giving the main results that allow a sensitivity analysis to be performed in a general optimization problem, including sensitivities of the objective function, the primal and the dual variables with respect to data. In particular, general results are given for non-linear programming, and closed formulas for linear programming problems are supplied. Next, the methods are applied to a collection of civil engineering reliability problems, which includes a bridge crane, a retaining wall and a composite breakwater. Finally, the sensitivity analysis formulas are extended to calculus of variations problems and a slope stability problem is used to illustrate the methods

  13. Reliability analysis of the diesel generators

    The Operating Experience of the Diesel generators of the Italian Nuclear Power Plants has been analysed, in order to evaluate their quality level in comparison with the requirements defined in the design and to identify possible improving measures to be implemented both on operating and under construction plants. The collected data have been classified and elaborated, with the purpose to evaluate availability on demand and reliability in operation for each diesel. A comparison between the calculated reliability parameters and the corresponding international ones was also performed. Recurring failure modes were specifically analysed. In addition, an analysis of homogeneity for the diesels of the same plant and of all the plants is reported as well. In such a way, some critical subsystems of DGs has been identified. Moreover hardware modifications and surveillance program improvements have been found out, such to ensure better performance of the on-site electric power system

  14. Comparative risk analysis

    In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

  15. System reliability analysis with natural language and expert's subjectivity

    This paper introduces natural language expressions and expert's subjectivity to system reliability analysis. To this end, this paper defines a subjective measure of reliability and presents the method of the system reliability analysis using the measure. The subjective measure of reliability corresponds to natural language expressions of reliability estimation, which is represented by a fuzzy set defined on [0,1]. The presented method deals with the dependence among subsystems and employs parametrized operations of subjective measures of reliability which can reflect expert 's subjectivity towards the analyzed system. The analysis results are also expressed by linguistic terms. Finally this paper gives an example of the system reliability analysis by the presented method

  16. Multiaxial fatigue reliability analysis of railroad wheels

    A general methodology for fatigue reliability degradation of railroad wheels is proposed in this paper. Both fatigue crack initiation and crack propagation life are included in the proposed methodology using previously developed multiaxial fatigue models by the same authors. A response surface method in conjunction with design of experiments is used to develop a closed form approximation of the fatigue damage accumulation with respect to the input random variables. The total fatigue life of railroad wheels under stochastic loading is simulated, accounting for the spatial and temporal randomness of the fatigue damage. The field observations of railroad wheel fatigue failures are compared with the numerical predictions using the proposed methodology

  17. Reliability analysis of containment isolation systems

    This report summarizes the results of the Reliability Analysis of Containment Isolation System Project. Work was performed in five basic areas: design review, operating experience review, related research review, generic analysis and plant specific analysis. Licensee Event Reports (LERs) and Integrated Leak Rate Test (ILRT) reports provided the major sources of containment performance information used in this study. Data extracted from LERs were assembled into a computer data base. Qualitative and quantitative information developed for containment performance under normal operating conditions and design basis accidents indicate that there is room for improvement. A rough estimate of overall containment unavailability for relatively small leaks which violate plant technical specifications is 0.3. An estimate of containment unavailability due to large leakage events is in the range of 0.001 to 0.01. These estimates are dependent on several assumptions (particularly on event duration times) which are documented in the report

  18. Reliability Analysis of Adhesive Bonded Scarf Joints

    Kimiaeifar, Amin; Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Lund, Erik; Thomsen, Ole Thybo; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2012-01-01

    A probabilistic model for the reliability analysis of adhesive bonded scarfed lap joints subjected to static loading is developed. It is representative for the main laminate in a wind turbine blade subjected to flapwise bending. The structural analysis is based on a three dimensional (3D) finite...... the FEA model, and a sensitivity analysis on the influence of various geometrical parameters and material properties on the maximum stress is conducted. Because the yield behavior of many polymeric structural adhesives is dependent on both deviatoric and hydrostatic stress components, different ratios...... of the compressive to tensile adhesive yield stresses in the failure criterion are considered. It is shown that the chosen failure criterion, the scarf angle and the load are significant for the assessment of the probability of failure....

  19. Bayesian networks with applications in reliability analysis

    Langseth, Helge

    2002-01-01

    A common goal of the papers in this thesis is to propose, formalize and exemplify the use of Bayesian networks as a modelling tool in reliability analysis. The papers span work in which Bayesian networks are merely used as a modelling tool (Paper I), work where models are specially designed to utilize the inference algorithms of Bayesian networks (Paper II and Paper III), and work where the focus has been on extending the applicability of Bayesian networks to very large domains (Paper IV and ...

  20. Human reliability analysis under fire condition

    It is identified in the fire probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants that human action has important effect on the risk of plant under fire condition. So it's necessary to assess human error probability under fire condition by the systemic methodology. The HCR/ORE and CBDTM models and specific considerations under fire condition were described in this paper. The combination of HCR/ORE, CBDTM and THERP was applied to human reliability analysis (HRA) under fire condition with an example given for demonstration. The basement of setting up the more practical fire PSA models for engineering is established. (authors)

  1. RELAV - RELIABILITY/AVAILABILITY ANALYSIS PROGRAM

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    RELAV (Reliability/Availability Analysis Program) is a comprehensive analytical tool to determine the reliability or availability of any general system which can be modeled as embedded k-out-of-n groups of items (components) and/or subgroups. Both ground and flight systems at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory have utilized this program. RELAV can assess current system performance during the later testing phases of a system design, as well as model candidate designs/architectures or validate and form predictions during the early phases of a design. Systems are commonly modeled as System Block Diagrams (SBDs). RELAV calculates the success probability of each group of items and/or subgroups within the system assuming k-out-of-n operating rules apply for each group. The program operates on a folding basis; i.e. it works its way towards the system level from the most embedded level by folding related groups into single components. The entire folding process involves probabilities; therefore, availability problems are performed in terms of the probability of success, and reliability problems are performed for specific mission lengths. An enhanced cumulative binomial algorithm is used for groups where all probabilities are equal, while a fast algorithm based upon "Computing k-out-of-n System Reliability", Barlow & Heidtmann, IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON RELIABILITY, October 1984, is used for groups with unequal probabilities. Inputs to the program include a description of the system and any one of the following: 1) availabilities of the items, 2) mean time between failures and mean time to repairs for the items from which availabilities are calculated, 3) mean time between failures and mission length(s) from which reliabilities are calculated, or 4) failure rates and mission length(s) from which reliabilities are calculated. The results are probabilities of success of each group and the system in the given configuration. RELAV assumes exponential failure distributions for reliability calculations and infinite repair resources for availability calculations. No more than 967 items or groups can be modeled by RELAV. If larger problems can be broken into subsystems of 967 items or less, the subsystem results can be used as item inputs to a system problem. The calculated availabilities are steady-state values. Group results are presented in the order in which they were calculated (from the most embedded level out to the system level). This provides a good mechanism to perform trade studies. Starting from the system result and working backwards, the granularity gets finer; therefore, system elements that contribute most to system degradation are detected quickly. RELAV is a C-language program originally developed under the UNIX operating system on a MASSCOMP MC500 computer. It has been modified, as necessary, and ported to an IBM PC compatible with a math coprocessor. The current version of the program runs in the DOS environment and requires a Turbo C vers. 2.0 compiler. RELAV has a memory requirement of 103 KB and was developed in 1989. RELAV is a copyrighted work with all copyright vested in NASA.

  2. Comparative availability and reliability assessment of design options for the secondary sodium loops of the EFR

    The EFR (European Fast Reactor) project has entered a conceptual study period where different design alternatives are compared concerning feasibility, safety and economic aspects. This paper describes a comparative probabilistic availability and reliability assessment of alternative design options for the secondary sodium loops. These loops will provide heat transfer from the reactor pool to the water-steam (power generating) side. So a high operational availability of the secondary loops during plant lifetime is essential for economic power generation. Additionally a high reliability is required to fulfill the operational decay heat removal function in case of a reactor trip. Availabilities and reliabilities of the different options were assessed using failure mode and effect analysis and the fault tree method. (orig.)

  3. Advancing Usability Evaluation through Human Reliability Analysis

    This paper introduces a novel augmentation to the current heuristic usability evaluation methodology. The SPAR-H human reliability analysis method was developed for categorizing human performance in nuclear power plants. Despite the specialized use of SPAR-H for safety critical scenarios, the method also holds promise for use in commercial off-the-shelf software usability evaluations. The SPAR-H method shares task analysis underpinnings with human-computer interaction, and it can be easily adapted to incorporate usability heuristics as performance shaping factors. By assigning probabilistic modifiers to heuristics, it is possible to arrive at the usability error probability (UEP). This UEP is not a literal probability of error but nonetheless provides a quantitative basis to heuristic evaluation. When combined with a consequence matrix for usability errors, this method affords ready prioritization of usability issues

  4. SURE reliability analysis: Program and mathematics

    Butler, Ricky W.; White, Allan L.

    1988-01-01

    The SURE program is a new reliability analysis tool for ultrareliable computer system architectures. The computational methods on which the program is based provide an efficient means for computing accurate upper and lower bounds for the death state probabilities of a large class of semi-Markov models. Once a semi-Markov model is described using a simple input language, the SURE program automatically computes the upper and lower bounds on the probability of system failure. A parameter of the model can be specified as a variable over a range of values directing the SURE program to perform a sensitivity analysis automatically. This feature, along with the speed of the program, makes it especially useful as a design tool.

  5. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

  6. Reliability of the Emergency Severity Index: Meta-analysis

    Amir Mirhaghi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Although triage systems based on the Emergency Severity Index (ESI have many advantages in terms of simplicity and clarity, previous research has questioned their reliability in practice. Therefore, the aim of this meta-analysis was to determine the reliability of ESI triage scales. Methods: This metaanalysis was performed in March 2014. Electronic research databases were searched and articles conforming to the Guidelines for Reporting Reliability and Agreement Studies were selected. Two researchers independently examined selected abstracts. Data were extracted in the following categories: version of scale (latest/older, participants (adult/paediatric, raters (nurse, physician or expert, method of reliability (intra/inter-rater, reliability statistics (weighted/unweighted kappa and the origin and publication year of the study. The effect size was obtained by the Z-transformation of reliability coefficients. Data were pooled with random-effects models and a meta-regression was performed based on the method of moments estimator. Results: A total of 19 studies from six countries were included in the analysis. The pooled coefficient for the ESI triage scales was substantial at 0.791 (95% confidence interval: 0.787‒0.795. Agreement was higher with the latest and adult versions of the scale and among expert raters, compared to agreement with older and paediatric versions of the scales and with other groups of raters, respectively. Conclusion: ESI triage scales showed an acceptable level of overall reliability. However, ESI scales require more development in order to see full agreement from all rater groups. Further studies concentrating on other aspects of reliability assessment are needed.

  7. Estimating Reliability of Power Factor Correction Circuits: A Comparative Study

    P Srinivas; A. Sambasiva Rao

    2015-01-01

    Reliability plays an important role in power supplies, as every power supply is the very heart of every electronics equipment. For other electronic equipment, a certain failure mode, at least for a part of the total system, can often be tolerated without serious (critical) after effects. However, for the power supply no such condition can be accepted, since very high demands on the reliability must be achieved. At higher power levels, the CCM boost converter is preferred topology ...

  8. Safety and reliability assessment by using dynamic reliability analysis method

    DYLAM and its related applications are reviewed in detail and found to have many favorable characteristics. Concerning human factor analysis, the study demonstrates that DYLAM methodology represents and appropriate tool to study man-machine behavior provided that DYLAM is used to model machine behavior and an appropriate operator interface human factor model is included. A hybrid model which is a synthesis of the DYLAM model, a system thermodynamic simulation model and a neutral network predicative model, is implemented and used to analyze dynamically the CANDU pressurizer system

  9. Reliability Analysis Techniques for Communication Networks in Nuclear Power Plant

    The objectives of this project is to investigate and study existing reliability analysis techniques for communication networks in order to develop reliability analysis models for nuclear power plant's safety-critical networks. It is necessary to make a comprehensive survey of current methodologies for communication network reliability. Major outputs of this study are design characteristics of safety-critical communication networks, efficient algorithms for quantifying reliability of communication networks, and preliminary models for assessing reliability of safety-critical communication networks

  10. Estimating Reliability of Power Factor Correction Circuits: A Comparative Study

    P.Srinivas

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Reliability plays an important role in power supplies, as every power supply is the very heart of every electronics equipment. For other electronic equipment, a certain failure mode, at least for a part of the total system, can often be tolerated without serious (critical after effects. However, for the power supply no such condition can be accepted, since very high demands on the reliability must be achieved. At higher power levels, the CCM boost converter is preferred topology for implementation a front end with PFC. As a result significant efforts have been made to improve the performance of high boost converter. This paper is one the effort for improving the performance of the converter from the reliability point of view. In this paper a boost power factor correction converter is simulated with single switch and interleaving technique in CCM, DCM and CRM modes under different output power ratings and the reliability. Results of the converter are explored from reliability point of view.

  11. Stochastic reliability analysis using Fokker Planck equations

    The Fokker-Planck equation describes the time evolution of the probability density function of the velocity of a particle, and can be generalized to other observables as well. It is also known as the Kolmogorov forward equation (diffusion). Hence, for any process, which evolves with time, the probability density function as a function of time can be represented with Fokker-Planck equation. In stochastic reliability analysis one is more interested in finding out the reliability or failure probability of the components or structures as a function of time rather than instantaneous failure probabilities. In this analysis the variables are represented with random processes instead of random variables. A random processes can be either stationary or non stationary. If the random process is stationary then the failure probability doesn't change with time where as in the case of non stationary processes the failure probability changes with time. In the present paper Fokker Planck equations have been used to find out the probability density function of the non stationary random processes. In this paper a flow chart has been provided which describes step by step process for carrying out stochastic reliability analysis using Fokker-Planck equations. As a first step one has to identify the failure function as a function of random processes. Then one has to solve the Fokker-Planck equation for each random process. In this paper the Fokker-Planck equation has been solved by using Finite difference method. As a result one gets the probability density values of the random process in the sample space as well as time space. Later at each time step appropriate probability distribution has to be identified based on the available probability density values. For checking the better fitness of the data Kolmogorov-Smirnov Goodness of fit test has been performed. In this way one can find out the distribution of the random process at each time step. Once one has the probability distribution of random process as a function of time, one can find out the failure probability of the structure or component based on the failure criteria. A case study has been performed for a two variable limit state function, where these variables are considered as random processes

  12. Reliability analysis of NAPP liquid rods shutdown system

    A reliability analysis has been conducted for the liquid rod shut off system of the reactor at Narora atomic power plant. The liquid rod system is described. The reliability analysis takes into account component failure rates, unavailabilities, failure modes and probabilities. The importance of reliability analysis in the design of a system is pointed out. (A.K.)

  13. Reliability analysis of pipe whip impacts

    A probability-based approach is presented as the integration of probabilistic methods and deterministic modelling based on the finite element method. An existing finite element software package was linked to an existing probabilistic package to analyse the complex mechanics that occur during the transient non-linear analysis of impact problems. This methodology is applied to a pipe whip analysis of a group-distribution-header, which results from a guillotine break, and subsequent impact with the adjacent building wall; this is a postulated accident for the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant RBMK-1500 reactors. The uncertainties of material properties, component geometry data and loads were taken into consideration. The probabilities of failure of the impacted header and of the header support-wall were estimated given uncertainties in material properties, geometrical parameters and loading. The software ProFES was used for the probabilistic analysis and the finite element software NEPTUNE for deterministic structural integrity evaluation. The Monte Carlo Simulation, First Order Reliability method and Response Surface method were used in the probabilistic analysis

  14. HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS FOR COMPUTERIZED PROCEDURES

    Ronald L. Boring; David I. Gertman; Katya Le Blanc

    2011-09-01

    This paper provides a characterization of human reliability analysis (HRA) issues for computerized procedures in nuclear power plant control rooms. It is beyond the scope of this paper to propose a new HRA approach or to recommend specific methods or refinements to those methods. Rather, this paper provides a review of HRA as applied to traditional paper-based procedures, followed by a discussion of what specific factors should additionally be considered in HRAs for computerized procedures. Performance shaping factors and failure modes unique to computerized procedures are highlighted. Since there is no definitive guide to HRA for paper-based procedures, this paper also serves to clarify the existing guidance on paper-based procedures before delving into the unique aspects of computerized procedures.

  15. Structural reliability analysis of spillway gates

    Concerns regarding the deterioration and the need to rehabilitate several of the major components of aging concrete dams in southern Quebec are discussed. Most of the dams were built before 1960 and are reaching their design life. This paper described an analytical procedure for determining if spillway gates need to be replaced or how much longer they can be expected to last. The procedure is based on reliability analysis and incorporates a model to predict the rate of corrosion of the gates. The procedure accounts for the variability in loads, deterioration processes and the geometrical and mechanical properties of the gates. Bayesian statistics are included to allow the model to be adjusted as new data becomes available. 16 refs., 2 tabs., 7 figs

  16. Reliability Analysis of Structural Timber Systems

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Hoffmeyer, P.

    types of redundancy and non-linearity are considered. The statistical characteristics of the load bearing capacity are determined by reliability analysis. Next, more complex systems are considered modelling the mechanical behaviour of timber roof elements I stressed skin panels made of timber. Using the...... above stochastic models, statistical characteristics (distribution function, 5% quantile and coefficient of variation) are determined. Generally, the results show that taking the system effects into account the characteristic load bearing capacity can be increased and the partial safety factor decreased......Structural systems like timber trussed rafters and roof elements made of timber can be expected to have some degree of redundancy and nonlinear/plastic behaviour when the loading consists of for example snow or imposed load. In this paper this system effect is modelled and the statistic...

  17. Human Reliability Analysis for Small Modular Reactors

    Ronald L. Boring; David I. Gertman

    2012-06-01

    Because no human reliability analysis (HRA) method was specifically developed for small modular reactors (SMRs), the application of any current HRA method to SMRs represents tradeoffs. A first- generation HRA method like THERP provides clearly defined activity types, but these activity types do not map to the human-system interface or concept of operations confronting SMR operators. A second- generation HRA method like ATHEANA is flexible enough to be used for SMR applications, but there is currently insufficient guidance for the analyst, requiring considerably more first-of-a-kind analyses and extensive SMR expertise in order to complete a quality HRA. Although no current HRA method is optimized to SMRs, it is possible to use existing HRA methods to identify errors, incorporate them as human failure events in the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), and quantify them. In this paper, we provided preliminary guidance to assist the human reliability analyst and reviewer in understanding how to apply current HRA methods to the domain of SMRs. While it is possible to perform a satisfactory HRA using existing HRA methods, ultimately it is desirable to formally incorporate SMR considerations into the methods. This may require the development of new HRA methods. More practicably, existing methods need to be adapted to incorporate SMRs. Such adaptations may take the form of guidance on the complex mapping between conventional light water reactors and small modular reactors. While many behaviors and activities are shared between current plants and SMRs, the methods must adapt if they are to perform a valid and accurate analysis of plant personnel performance in SMRs.

  18. Comparative assessment of selected PWR auxiliary feedwater system reliability analyses

    This paper presents a sample of results obtained in reviewing utility submittals of Auxiliary Feedwater System reliability studies. These results are then used to illustrate a few general points regarding such studies. The submittals and reviews for operating license applications are quite significant in that they represent an application of probabilistic risk assessment techniques in the licensing process

  19. Task Decomposition in Human Reliability Analysis

    Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Laboratory; Joe, Jeffrey Clark [Idaho National Laboratory

    2014-06-01

    In the probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) used in the nuclear industry, human failure events (HFEs) are determined as a subset of hardware failures, namely those hardware failures that could be triggered by human action or inaction. This approach is top-down, starting with hardware faults and deducing human contributions to those faults. Elsewhere, more traditionally human factors driven approaches would tend to look at opportunities for human errors first in a task analysis and then identify which of those errors is risk significant. The intersection of top-down and bottom-up approaches to defining HFEs has not been carefully studied. Ideally, both approaches should arrive at the same set of HFEs. This question remains central as human reliability analysis (HRA) methods are generalized to new domains like oil and gas. The HFEs used in nuclear PSAs tend to be top-down— defined as a subset of the PSA—whereas the HFEs used in petroleum quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) are more likely to be bottom-up—derived from a task analysis conducted by human factors experts. The marriage of these approaches is necessary in order to ensure that HRA methods developed for top-down HFEs are also sufficient for bottom-up applications.

  20. Reliability of Bolton analysis evaluation in tridimensional virtual models

    Brandão, Marianna Mendonca; Sobral, Marcio Costal; Vogel, Carlos Jorge

    2015-01-01

    Objective: The present study aimed at evaluating the reliability of Bolton analysis in tridimensional virtual models, comparing it with the manual method carried out with dental casts. Methods: The present investigation was performed using 56 pairs of dental casts produced from the dental arches of patients in perfect conditions and randomly selected from Universidade Federal da Bahia, School of Dentistry, Orthodontics Postgraduate Program. Manual measurements were obtained with the aid of a ...

  1. Development of design framework based on reliability analysis using MATLAB

    The aim of this research is to implement a design framework based on reliability analysis and make it possibly used for a reliable and robust design under uncertainties. Different types of reliability methods and algorithms are programmed to explore their characteristics. In our work, RIA and the PMA are employed for formulating the reliability analysis problems. A number of reliability methods are introduced in this program such as FORM, AMV/AMV+ and MCS. Reliability analysis can be easily performed with this tool box only if a drive file is ready to run. Users need to select random design variables and define their distributions and correlation

  2. Methods for Comprehensive Analysis of Heat Supply Reliability

    V. A. Stennikov; I. V. Postnikov

    2013-01-01

    The paper deals with the problem of comprehensive analysis of heat supply reliability for consumers. It implies a quantitative assessment of the impact of all stages of heat energy production and distribution on heat supply reliability for each consumer of the heat supply system. A short review of existing methods for the analysis of fuel and heat supply reliability is presented that substantiates the key approaches to solving the problem of comprehensive analysis of heat supply reliability. ...

  3. Reliability analysis of digital reactor protection system

    The reliability analysis of the digital reactor protection system (RPS) is an essential part in the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of the advanced boiling water reactor (ABWR). In this study, the reliability model and methodology were modified to evaluate the reliability of the digital RPS installed in the Japanese ABWR plant. The hardware failure rates in the foreign data source of digital components were applied, based on the similarity of the function of the digital components. The hardware failure rates of the digital components were estimated to range from 10-5 (/hr) to 10-7 (/hr), according to the types of the components. The software error events and their recovery factors in the design and fabrication stages were evaluated, considering the verification and validation process provided by the Japanese industry guideline. Then, the software failure probability of the programmable digital component was evaluated, utilizing the probability of software error events and their recovery factors. This probability was estimated to be 3.3 10-7 (/demand), which was about one order higher than that of our previous estimation. These models and results were applied to evaluate the reactor trip system (RTS) and the engineered safety feature (ESF) actuation system of the ABWR plant, both of which are the subsystems of the RPS. The unavailability of the digital RTS was estimated to be the mean value of 7.2 10-6 (/demand). If an alternate rod insertion (ARI) and a manual scram were considered, the unavailability was estimated to decrease to 1.6 10-9. The ECCS unavailability was estimated to be also nearly equal to the same values as the previous estimation, because the system unavailability was dominated by the unavailability of the mechanical components, such as pumps, valves, etc. The sensitivity analyses were conducted systematically, in order to evaluate the effect of the modeling uncertainty on the RTS unavailability. The results indicated that the unavailability of the digital RTS only changed within the range of factor 2, even though the various assumptions were used on the hardware and the software failure of the digital components. (authors)

  4. Comparative reliability of cheiloscopy and palatoscopy in human identification

    Sharma Preeti; Saxena Susmita; Rathod Vanita

    2009-01-01

    Background: Establishing a person?s identity in postmortem scenarios can be a very difficult process. Dental records, fingerprint and DNA comparisons are probably the most common techniques used in this context, allowing fast and reliable identification processes. However, under certain circumstances they cannot always be used; sometimes it is necessary to apply different and less known techniques. In forensic identification, lip prints and palatal rugae patterns can lead us to import...

  5. Reliability & Sensitivity Analysis of IKR Regional power Network

    Asso Raouf Majeed

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a developed algorithm for reliability sensitivity analysis of engineering networks. . Reliability Modeling is proposed for the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Power Network (IKRPN using Symbolic Reliability function of the model. The written Pascal code for the developed algorithm finds efficiently path sets and cut sets of the model. Reliability and Unreliability indices are found. The sensitivity of these indices are found with respect to the variation of the networks elements reliabilities

  6. Models of network reliability analysis, combinatorics, and Monte Carlo

    Gertsbakh, Ilya B

    2009-01-01

    Unique in its approach, Models of Network Reliability: Analysis, Combinatorics, and Monte Carlo provides a brief introduction to Monte Carlo methods along with a concise exposition of reliability theory ideas. From there, the text investigates a collection of principal network reliability models, such as terminal connectivity for networks with unreliable edges and/or nodes, network lifetime distribution in the process of its destruction, network stationary behavior for renewable components, importance measures of network elements, reliability gradient, and network optimal reliability synthesis

  7. Modeling human reliability analysis using MIDAS

    Boring, R. L. [Human Factors, Instrumentation and Control Systems Dept., Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID 83415 (United States)

    2006-07-01

    This paper documents current efforts to infuse human reliability analysis (HRA) into human performance simulation. The Idaho National Laboratory is teamed with NASA Ames Research Center to bridge the SPAR-H HRA method with NASA's Man-machine Integration Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) for use in simulating and modeling the human contribution to risk in nuclear power plant control room operations. It is anticipated that the union of MIDAS and SPAR-H will pave the path for cost-effective, timely, and valid simulated control room operators for studying current and next generation control room configurations. This paper highlights considerations for creating the dynamic HRA framework necessary for simulation, including event dependency and granularity. This paper also highlights how the SPAR-H performance shaping factors can be modeled in MIDAS across static, dynamic, and initiator conditions common to control room scenarios. This paper concludes with a discussion of the relationship of the workload factors currently in MIDAS and the performance shaping factors in SPAR-H. (authors)

  8. Modeling human reliability analysis using MIDAS

    This paper documents current efforts to infuse human reliability analysis (HRA) into human performance simulation. The Idaho National Laboratory is teamed with NASA Ames Research Center to bridge the SPAR-H HRA method with NASA's Man-machine Integration Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) for use in simulating and modeling the human contribution to risk in nuclear power plant control room operations. It is anticipated that the union of MIDAS and SPAR-H will pave the path for cost-effective, timely, and valid simulated control room operators for studying current and next generation control room configurations. This paper highlights considerations for creating the dynamic HRA framework necessary for simulation, including event dependency and granularity. This paper also highlights how the SPAR-H performance shaping factors can be modeled in MIDAS across static, dynamic, and initiator conditions common to control room scenarios. This paper concludes with a discussion of the relationship of the workload factors currently in MIDAS and the performance shaping factors in SPAR-H. (authors)

  9. Travel time Reliability Analysis Using Entropy

    Neveen Shlayan; Vidhya Kumaresan; Pushkin Kachroo; Brian Hoeft

    2013-01-01

    Travel time reliability is a measure that is commonly extracted from travel time measurements. It has served as a vital indicator of the transportation system’s performance making the concept of obtaining reliability from travel time data very useful. Travel time is a good indicator of the performance of a particular highway segment. However, it does not convey all aspects of the overall performance of the transportation system. Travel Time Reliability is defined as the consistency of traffic...

  10. Reliability Analysis and Optimal Design of Monolithic Vertical Wall Breakwaters

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Burcharth, Hans F.; Christiani, E.

    Reliability analysis and reliability-based design of monolithic vertical wall breakwaters are considered. Probabilistic models of the most important failure modes, sliding failure, failure of the foundation and overturning failure are described . Relevant design variables are identified and relia...

  11. Analysis of reliability parameters for complicated information measurement systems

    Sydor, Andriy

    2012-01-01

    A method of analysis of reliability parameters for complicated systems by means of generating functions is developed taking account of aging of the systems output elements. Main reliability parameters of complicated information measurement systems are examined in this paper.

  12. Probabilistic risk assessment course documentation. Volume 3. System reliability and analysis techniques, Session A - reliability

    This course in System Reliability and Analysis Techniques focuses on the quantitative estimation of reliability at the systems level. Various methods are reviewed, but the structure provided by the fault tree method is used as the basis for system reliability estimates. The principles of fault tree analysis are briefly reviewed. Contributors to system unreliability and unavailability are reviewed, models are given for quantitative evaluation, and the requirements for both generic and plant-specific data are discussed. Also covered are issues of quantifying component faults that relate to the systems context in which the components are embedded. All reliability terms are carefully defined. 44 figs., 22 tabs

  13. Comparison of methods for dependency determination between human failure events within human reliability analysis

    The Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a highly subjective evaluation of human performance, which is an input for probabilistic safety assessment, which deals with many parameters of high uncertainty. The objective of this paper is to show that subjectivism can have a large impact on human reliability results and consequently on probabilistic safety assessment results and applications. The objective is to identify the key features, which may decrease of subjectivity of human reliability analysis. Human reliability methods are compared with focus on dependency comparison between Institute Jozef Stefan - Human Reliability Analysis (IJS-HRA) and Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H). Results show large differences in the calculated human error probabilities for the same events within the same probabilistic safety assessment, which are the consequence of subjectivity. The subjectivity can be reduced by development of more detailed guidelines for human reliability analysis with many practical examples for all steps of the process of evaluation of human performance. (author)

  14. On some comparisons of lifetimes for reliability analysis

    Ordering of non-negative random variables (lifetimes) has been intensively studied in the literature. When comparing lifetimes in different applications such as reliability and risk analysis, it is often of interest to analyze also the distances between these lifetimes. In this paper, we define and discuss the stress–strength ordering and distance on the basis of the well-known stress–strength model that describes, e.g., the probability that the strength of a structure is larger than the external stress. We also compare this probability with the distance based on the difference between the means of random variables of interest and discuss several examples. The results can be useful, e.g., for analyzing reliability and safety requirements at the design stage for various engineering objects

  15. Reliability test and failure analysis of high power LED packages

    Chen Zhaohui [Research Institute of Micro/Nano Science and Technology, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240 (China); Zhang Qin; Wang Kai; Luo Xiaobing; Liu Sheng, E-mail: victorliu63@126.com [Wuhan National Laboratory for Optoelectronics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074 (China)

    2011-01-15

    A new type application specific light emitting diode (LED) package (ASLP) with freeform polycarbonate lens for street lighting is developed, whose manufacturing processes are compatible with a typical LED packaging process. The reliability test methods and failure criterions from different vendors are reviewed and compared. It is found that test methods and failure criterions are quite different. The rapid reliability assessment standards are urgently needed for the LED industry. 85 {sup 0}C/85 RH with 700 mA is used to test our LED modules with three other vendors for 1000 h, showing no visible degradation in optical performance for our modules, with two other vendors showing significant degradation. Some failure analysis methods such as C-SAM, Nano X-ray CT and optical microscope are used for LED packages. Some failure mechanisms such as delaminations and cracks are detected in the LED packages after the accelerated reliability testing. The finite element simulation method is helpful for the failure analysis and design of the reliability of the LED packaging. One example is used to show one currently used module in industry is vulnerable and may not easily pass the harsh thermal cycle testing. (semiconductor devices)

  16. Reliability test and failure analysis of high power LED packages

    Zhaohui, Chen; Qin, Zhang; Kai, Wang; Xiaobing, Luo; Sheng, Liu

    2011-01-01

    A new type application specific light emitting diode (LED) package (ASLP) with freeform polycarbonate lens for street lighting is developed, whose manufacturing processes are compatible with a typical LED packaging process. The reliability test methods and failure criterions from different vendors are reviewed and compared. It is found that test methods and failure criterions are quite different. The rapid reliability assessment standards are urgently needed for the LED industry. 85 C/85 RH with 700 mA is used to test our LED modules with three other vendors for 1000 h, showing no visible degradation in optical performance for our modules, with two other vendors showing significant degradation. Some failure analysis methods such as C-SAM, Nano X-ray CT and optical microscope are used for LED packages. Some failure mechanisms such as delaminations and cracks are detected in the LED packages after the accelerated reliability testing. The finite element simulation method is helpful for the failure analysis and design of the reliability of the LED packaging. One example is used to show one currently used module in industry is vulnerable and may not easily pass the harsh thermal cycle testing.

  17. Reliability test and failure analysis of high power LED packages

    A new type application specific light emitting diode (LED) package (ASLP) with freeform polycarbonate lens for street lighting is developed, whose manufacturing processes are compatible with a typical LED packaging process. The reliability test methods and failure criterions from different vendors are reviewed and compared. It is found that test methods and failure criterions are quite different. The rapid reliability assessment standards are urgently needed for the LED industry. 85 0C/85 RH with 700 mA is used to test our LED modules with three other vendors for 1000 h, showing no visible degradation in optical performance for our modules, with two other vendors showing significant degradation. Some failure analysis methods such as C-SAM, Nano X-ray CT and optical microscope are used for LED packages. Some failure mechanisms such as delaminations and cracks are detected in the LED packages after the accelerated reliability testing. The finite element simulation method is helpful for the failure analysis and design of the reliability of the LED packaging. One example is used to show one currently used module in industry is vulnerable and may not easily pass the harsh thermal cycle testing. (semiconductor devices)

  18. Individual Differences in Human Reliability Analysis

    Jeffrey C. Joe; Ronald L. Boring

    2014-06-01

    While human reliability analysis (HRA) methods include uncertainty in quantification, the nominal model of human error in HRA typically assumes that operator performance does not vary significantly when they are given the same initiating event, indicators, procedures, and training, and that any differences in operator performance are simply aleatory (i.e., random). While this assumption generally holds true when performing routine actions, variability in operator response has been observed in multiple studies, especially in complex situations that go beyond training and procedures. As such, complexity can lead to differences in operator performance (e.g., operator understanding and decision-making). Furthermore, psychological research has shown that there are a number of known antecedents (i.e., attributable causes) that consistently contribute to observable and systematically measurable (i.e., not random) differences in behavior. This paper reviews examples of individual differences taken from operational experience and the psychological literature. The impact of these differences in human behavior and their implications for HRA are then discussed. We propose that individual differences should not be treated as aleatory, but rather as epistemic. Ultimately, by understanding the sources of individual differences, it is possible to remove some epistemic uncertainty from analyses.

  19. PC-PRAISE, BWR Piping Reliability Analysis

    1 - Description of program or function: PC-PRAISE is a probabilistic fracture mechanics computer code developed for IBM or IBM compatible personal computers to estimate probabilities of leak and break in nuclear power plant cooling piping. 2 - Method of solution: PC-PRAISE considers the initiation and/or growth of crack-like defects in piping weldments. The initiation analyses are based on the results of laboratory studies and field observations in austenitic piping material operating under boiling water reactor conditions. The considerable scatter in such results is quantified and incorporated into a probabilistic model. The crack growth analysis is based on (deterministic) fracture mechanics principles, in which some of the inputs (such as initial crack size) are considered to be random variables. Monte Carlo simulation, with stratified sampling on initial crack size, is used to generate weldment reliability results. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: There is essentially no limitation with PC-PRAISE but for large number of replications used in the Monte Carlo simulation scheme, computation time may become prohibitive

  20. Reliability analysis of the combined district heating systems

    Sharapov, V. I.; Orlov, M. E.; Kunin, M. V.

    2015-12-01

    Technologies that improve the reliability and efficiency of the combined district heating systems in urban areas are considered. The calculation method of reliability of the CHP combined district heating systems is proposed. The comparative estimation of the reliability of traditional and combined district heating systems is performed.

  1. RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF PISTON MANUFACTURING SYSTEM

    Amit Kumar; Sneh Lata

    2011-01-01

    Now days, internal combustion engines are used in most of the automobiles andmechanical machineries. The piston is a part without which no internal combustion engine canwork i.e., piston plays a vital role in almost all types of vehicles. So, the reliability of pistonmanufacturing system is most essential for the proper functioning of vehicles. In this paper, faulttree method is used to analyze the reliability of piston manufacturing system. Also, risk reductionworth is adopted as a measure o...

  2. Meta-Analysis of Scale Reliability Using Latent Variable Modeling

    Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

    2013-01-01

    A latent variable modeling approach is outlined that can be used for meta-analysis of reliability coefficients of multicomponent measuring instruments. Important limitations of efforts to combine composite reliability findings across multiple studies are initially pointed out. A reliability synthesis procedure is discussed that is based on

  3. Statistical analysis and modelling of small satellite reliability

    Guo, Jian; Monas, Liora; Gill, Eberhard

    2014-05-01

    This paper attempts to characterize failure behaviour of small satellites through statistical analysis of actual in-orbit failures. A unique Small Satellite Anomalies Database comprising empirical failure data of 222 small satellites has been developed. A nonparametric analysis of the failure data has been implemented by means of a Kaplan-Meier estimation. An innovative modelling method, i.e. Bayesian theory in combination with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations, has been proposed to model the reliability of small satellites. An extensive parametric analysis using the Bayesian/MCMC method has been performed to fit a Weibull distribution to the data. The influence of several characteristics such as the design lifetime, mass, launch year, mission type and the type of satellite developers on the reliability has been analyzed. The results clearly show the infant mortality of small satellites. Compared with the classical maximum-likelihood estimation methods, the proposed Bayesian/MCMC method results in better fitting Weibull models and is especially suitable for reliability modelling where only very limited failures are observed.

  4. Mathematical Methods in Survival Analysis, Reliability and Quality of Life

    Huber, Catherine; Mesbah, Mounir

    2008-01-01

    Reliability and survival analysis are important applications of stochastic mathematics (probability, statistics and stochastic processes) that are usually covered separately in spite of the similarity of the involved mathematical theory. This title aims to redress this situation: it includes 21 chapters divided into four parts: Survival analysis, Reliability, Quality of life, and Related topics. Many of these chapters were presented at the European Seminar on Mathematical Methods for Survival Analysis, Reliability and Quality of Life in 2006.

  5. Key Reliability Drivers of Liquid Propulsion Engines and A Reliability Model for Sensitivity Analysis

    Huang, Zhao-Feng; Fint, Jeffry A.; Kuck, Frederick M.

    2005-01-01

    This paper is to address the in-flight reliability of a liquid propulsion engine system for a launch vehicle. We first establish a comprehensive list of system and sub-system reliability drivers for any liquid propulsion engine system. We then build a reliability model to parametrically analyze the impact of some reliability parameters. We present sensitivity analysis results for a selected subset of the key reliability drivers using the model. Reliability drivers identified include: number of engines for the liquid propulsion stage, single engine total reliability, engine operation duration, engine thrust size, reusability, engine de-rating or up-rating, engine-out design (including engine-out switching reliability, catastrophic fraction, preventable failure fraction, unnecessary shutdown fraction), propellant specific hazards, engine start and cutoff transient hazards, engine combustion cycles, vehicle and engine interface and interaction hazards, engine health management system, engine modification, engine ground start hold down with launch commit criteria, engine altitude start (1 in. start), Multiple altitude restart (less than 1 restart), component, subsystem and system design, manufacturing/ground operation support/pre and post flight check outs and inspection, extensiveness of the development program. We present some sensitivity analysis results for the following subset of the drivers: number of engines for the propulsion stage, single engine total reliability, engine operation duration, engine de-rating or up-rating requirements, engine-out design, catastrophic fraction, preventable failure fraction, unnecessary shutdown fraction, and engine health management system implementation (basic redlines and more advanced health management systems).

  6. Failures Analysis and Reliability Calculation for Power Transformers

    M. Mirzai; Gholami, A.; F. Aminifar

    2006-01-01

    Failures of transformers in sub-transmission systems not only reduce reliability of power system but also have significant effects on power quality since one of the important components of any system quality is reliability of that system. To enhance utility reliability, failure analysis and its rates, failure origin and physical damage causes must be studied. This paper describes a case study of the reliability of sub-transmission transformers (63/20 KV) installed in Mazandaran province, oper...

  7. Reliability Analysis for Safety Grade PLC(POSAFE-Q)

    Safety Grade PLC(Programmable Logic Controller), POSAFE-Q, was developed recently in accordance with nuclear regulatory and requirements. In this paper, describe reliability analysis for digital safety grade PLC (especially POSAFE-Q). Reliability analysis scope is Prediction, Calculation of MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure), FMEA (Failure Mode Effect Analysis), PFD (Probability of Failure on Demand). (author)

  8. Issues in benchmarking human reliability analysis methods: A literature review

    There is a diversity of human reliability analysis (HRA) methods available for use in assessing human performance within probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Due to the significant differences in the methods, including the scope, approach, and underlying models, there is a need for an empirical comparison investigating the validity and reliability of the methods. To accomplish this empirical comparison, a benchmarking study comparing and evaluating HRA methods in assessing operator performance in simulator experiments is currently underway. In order to account for as many effects as possible in the construction of this benchmarking study, a literature review was conducted, reviewing past benchmarking studies in the areas of psychology and risk assessment. A number of lessons learned through these studies is presented in order to aid in the design of future HRA benchmarking endeavors.

  9. Issues in benchmarking human reliability analysis methods : a literature review.

    Lois, Erasmia (US Nuclear Regulatory Commission); Forester, John Alan; Tran, Tuan Q. (Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID); Hendrickson, Stacey M. Langfitt; Boring, Ronald L. (Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID)

    2008-04-01

    There is a diversity of human reliability analysis (HRA) methods available for use in assessing human performance within probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Due to the significant differences in the methods, including the scope, approach, and underlying models, there is a need for an empirical comparison investigating the validity and reliability of the methods. To accomplish this empirical comparison, a benchmarking study is currently underway that compares HRA methods with each other and against operator performance in simulator studies. In order to account for as many effects as possible in the construction of this benchmarking study, a literature review was conducted, reviewing past benchmarking studies in the areas of psychology and risk assessment. A number of lessons learned through these studies are presented in order to aid in the design of future HRA benchmarking endeavors.

  10. Probabilistic safety analysis and human reliability analysis. Proceedings. Working material

    An international meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) and Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) was jointly organized by Electricite de France - Research and Development (EDF DER) and SRI International in co-ordination with the International Atomic Energy Agency. The meeting was held in Paris 21-23 November 1994. A group of international and French specialists in PSA and HRA participated at the meeting and discussed the state of the art and current trends in the following six topics: PSA Methodology; PSA Applications; From PSA to Dependability; Incident Analysis; Safety Indicators; Human Reliability. For each topic a background paper was prepared by EDF/DER and reviewed by the international group of specialists who attended the meeting. The results of this meeting provide a comprehensive overview of the most important questions related to the readiness of PSA for specific uses and areas where further research and development is required. Refs, figs, tabs

  11. Human Reliability Analysis for Design: Using Reliability Methods for Human Factors Issues

    This paper reviews the application of human reliability analysis methods to human factors design issues. An application framework is sketched in which aspects of modeling typically found in human reliability analysis are used in a complementary fashion to the existing human factors phases of design and testing. The paper provides best achievable practices for design, testing, and modeling. Such best achievable practices may be used to evaluate and human system interface in the context of design safety certifications.

  12. Human Reliability Analysis for Design: Using Reliability Methods for Human Factors Issues

    Ronald Laurids Boring

    2010-11-01

    This paper reviews the application of human reliability analysis methods to human factors design issues. An application framework is sketched in which aspects of modeling typically found in human reliability analysis are used in a complementary fashion to the existing human factors phases of design and testing. The paper provides best achievable practices for design, testing, and modeling. Such best achievable practices may be used to evaluate and human system interface in the context of design safety certifications.

  13. Reliability and validity in comparative studies of software prediction models

    Myrtveit, I; Stensrud, E; Shepperd, MJ

    2005-01-01

    Empirical studies on software prediction models do not converge with respect to the question "which prediction model is best?" The reason for this lack of convergence is poorly understood. In this simulation study, we have examined a frequently used research procedure comprising three main ingredients: a single data sample, an accuracy indicator, and cross validation. Typically, these empirical studies compare a machine learning model with a regression model. In our study, we use simulation a...

  14. Reliability and availability analysis for robot subsystem in automotive assembly plant: a case study

    Fudzin, A. F.; Majid, M. A. A.

    2015-12-01

    The automotive assembly plant in a manufacturing environment consists of conveying systems and robots. Robots with high reliability will ensure no interruption during production. This study is to analyze the individual robot reliability compared to reliability of robots subsystem in series configuration. Availability was computed based on individual robots breakdown data. Failures due to robots breakdown often occurred during the operations. Actual maintenance data for a period of seven years were used for the analysis. Incorporation of failures rate and mean time between failures yield the reliability computation with the assumption of constant failure rate. Result from the analysis based on 5000 operating hours indicated reliability of series configuration of robots in a subsystem decreased to 2.8% in comparison to 38% reliability of the individual robot with the lowest reliability. The calculated lowest availability of the robots is 99.41%. The robot with the lowest reliability and availability should be considered for replacement.

  15. Reliability estimation in a multilevel confirmatory factor analysis framework.

    Geldhof, G John; Preacher, Kristopher J; Zyphur, Michael J

    2014-03-01

    Scales with varying degrees of measurement reliability are often used in the context of multistage sampling, where variance exists at multiple levels of analysis (e.g., individual and group). Because methodological guidance on assessing and reporting reliability at multiple levels of analysis is currently lacking, we discuss the importance of examining level-specific reliability. We present a simulation study and an applied example showing different methods for estimating multilevel reliability using multilevel confirmatory factor analysis and provide supporting Mplus program code. We conclude that (a) single-level estimates will not reflect a scale's actual reliability unless reliability is identical at each level of analysis, (b) 2-level alpha and composite reliability (omega) perform relatively well in most settings, (c) estimates of maximal reliability (H) were more biased when estimated using multilevel data than either alpha or omega, and (d) small cluster size can lead to overestimates of reliability at the between level of analysis. We also show that Monte Carlo confidence intervals and Bayesian credible intervals closely reflect the sampling distribution of reliability estimates under most conditions. We discuss the estimation of credible intervals using Mplus and provide R code for computing Monte Carlo confidence intervals. PMID:23646988

  16. Bypassing BDD Construction for Reliability Analysis

    Williams, Poul Frederick; Nikolskaia, Macha; Rauzy, Antoine

    In this note, we propose a Boolean Expression Diagram (BED)-based algorithm to compute the minimal p-cuts of boolean reliability models such as fault trees. BEDs make it possible to bypass the Binary Decision Diagram (BDD) construction, which is the main cost of fault tree assessment....

  17. Design Parameters Influencing Reliability of CCGA Assembly: A Sensitivity Analysis

    Tasooji, Amaneh; Ghaffarian, Reza; Rinaldi, Antonio

    2006-01-01

    Area Array microelectronic packages with small pitch and large I/O counts are now widely used in microelectronics packaging. The impact of various package design and materials/process parameters on reliability has been studied through extensive literature review. Reliability of Ceramic Column Grid Array (CCGA) package assemblies has been evaluated using JPL thermal cycle test results (-50(deg)/75(deg)C, -55(deg)/100(deg)C, and -55(deg)/125(deg)C), as well as those reported by other investigators. A sensitivity analysis has been performed using the literature da to study the impact of design parameters and global/local stress conditions on assembly reliability. The applicability of various life-prediction models for CCGA design has been investigated by comparing model's predictions with the experimental thermal cycling data. Finite Element Method (FEM) analysis has been conducted to assess the state of the stress/strain in CCGA assembly under different thermal cycling, and to explain the different failure modes and locations observed in JPL test assemblies.

  18. Suicide reporting content analysis: abstract development and reliability.

    Gould, Madelyn S; Midle, Jennifer Bassett; Insel, Beverly; Kleinman, Marjorie

    2007-01-01

    Despite substantial research on media influences and the development of media guidelines on suicide reporting, research on the specifics of media stories that facilitate suicide contagion has been limited. The goal of the present study was to develop a content analytic strategy to code features in media suicide reports presumed to be influential in suicide contagion and determine the interrater reliability of the qualitative characteristics abstracted from newspaper stories. A random subset of 151 articles from a database of 1851 newspaper suicide stories published during 1988 through 1996, which were collected as part of a national study in the United States to identify factors associated with the initiation of youth suicide clusters, were evaluated. Using a well-defined content-analysis procedure, the agreement between raters in scoring key concepts of suicide reports from the headline, the pictorial presentation, and the text were evaluated. The results show that while the majority of variables in the content analysis were very reliable, assessed using the kappa statistic, and obtained excellent percentages of agreement, the reliability of complicated constructs, such as sensationalizing, glorifying, or romanticizing the suicide, was comparatively low. The data emphasize that before effective guidelines and responsible suicide reporting can ensue, further explication of suicide story constructs is necessary to ensure the implementation and compliance of responsible reporting on behalf of the media. PMID:18265736

  19. A methodology to incorporate organizational factors into human reliability analysis

    A new holistic methodology for Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is proposed to model the effects of the organizational factors on the human reliability. Firstly, a conceptual framework is built, which is used to analyze the causal relationships between the organizational factors and human reliability. Then, the inference model for Human Reliability Analysis is built by combining the conceptual framework with Bayesian networks, which is used to execute the causal inference and diagnostic inference of human reliability. Finally, a case example is presented to demonstrate the specific application of the proposed methodology. The results show that the proposed methodology of combining the conceptual model with Bayesian Networks can not only easily model the causal relationship between organizational factors and human reliability, but in a given context, people can quantitatively measure the human operational reliability, and identify the most likely root causes or the prioritization of root causes caused human error. (authors)

  20. Inclusion of Reliability and Safety Analysis Methods in Modelica

    Schallert, Christian

    2011-01-01

    A method is developed to combine techniques of reliability and safety analysis with the Modelica language, which is now widely used for the modelling and simulation of technical systems. The method allows to perform a reliability or safety analysis on the system model that is created and used for simulation studies. The procedure automatically determines the so called minimal path sets or minimal cut sets of a system, its failure probability and critical components. The reliability and ...

  1. Using the Reliability Theory for Assessing the Decision Confidence Probability for Comparative Life Cycle Assessments.

    Wei, Wei; Larrey-Lassalle, Pyrène; Faure, Thierry; Dumoulin, Nicolas; Roux, Philippe; Mathias, Jean-Denis

    2016-03-01

    Comparative decision making process is widely used to identify which option (system, product, service, etc.) has smaller environmental footprints and for providing recommendations that help stakeholders take future decisions. However, the uncertainty problem complicates the comparison and the decision making. Probability-based decision support in LCA is a way to help stakeholders in their decision-making process. It calculates the decision confidence probability which expresses the probability of a option to have a smaller environmental impact than the one of another option. Here we apply the reliability theory to approximate the decision confidence probability. We compare the traditional Monte Carlo method with a reliability method called FORM method. The Monte Carlo method needs high computational time to calculate the decision confidence probability. The FORM method enables us to approximate the decision confidence probability with fewer simulations than the Monte Carlo method by approximating the response surface. Moreover, the FORM method calculates the associated importance factors that correspond to a sensitivity analysis in relation to the probability. The importance factors allow stakeholders to determine which factors influence their decision. Our results clearly show that the reliability method provides additional useful information to stakeholders as well as it reduces the computational time. PMID:26815724

  2. Bayesian reliability analysis to heat transfer tube of steam generator

    The author completes a Bayesian analysis to the reliability of heat transfer tube of steam generator on the basis of 1987?1991 worldwide statistical data of plugged tube in PWR steam generator. The result indicates that Bayesian statistics is more valuable than traditional method in reliability analysis of heat transfer tube in steam generator

  3. Reliability analysis of RC containment structures under combined loads

    This paper discusses a reliability analysis method and load combination design criteria for reinforced concrete containment structures under combined loads. The probability based reliability analysis method is briefly described. For load combination design criteria, derivations of the load factors for accidental pressure due to a design basis accident and safe shutdown earthquake (SSE) for three target limit state probabilities are presented

  4. Reliability analysis of rc containment structures under combined loads

    This paper discusses a reliability analysis method and load combination design criteria for reinforced concrete containment structures under combined loads. The probability based reliability analysis method is briefly described. For load combination design criteria, derivations of the load factors for accidental pressure due to a design basis accident and safe shutdown earthquake (SSE) for three target limit state probabilities are presented

  5. Discrete event simulation versus conventional system reliability analysis approaches

    Kozine, Igor

    Discrete Event Simulation (DES) environments are rapidly developing and appear to be promising tools for building reliability and risk analysis models of safety-critical systems and human operators. If properly developed, they are an alternative to the conventional human reliability analysis mode...

  6. Network reliability analysis based on percolation theory

    In this paper, we propose a new way of looking at the reliability of a network using percolation theory. In this new view, a network failure can be regarded as a percolation process and the critical threshold of percolation can be used as network failure criterion linked to the operational settings under control. To demonstrate our approach, we consider both random network models and real networks with different nodes and/or edges lifetime distributions. We study numerically and theoretically the network reliability and find that the network reliability can be solved as a voting system with threshold given by percolation theory. Then we find that the average lifetime of random network increases linearly with the average lifetime of its nodes with uniform life distributions. Furthermore, the average lifetime of the network becomes saturated when system size is increased. Finally, we demonstrate our method on the transmission network system of IEEE 14 bus. - Highlights: • Based on percolation theory, we address questions of practical interest such as “how many failed nodes/edges will break down the whole network?” • The percolation threshold naturally gives a network failure criterion. • The approach based on percolation theory is suited for calculations of large-scale networks

  7. Reliability block diagram with general gates and its application to system reliability analysis

    Highlights: ? Conventional reliability block diagram is extended to enhance the expression power. ? The mathematical definition of the proposed method is provided. ? For quantitative analysis, how to develop an equivalent Bayesian network is provided. ? The usefulness of the proposed method is demonstrated with two examples. - Abstract: For those systems that can be modeled with perfect nodes and unreliable arcs such as communication systems, a reliability graph with general gates (RGGG) was developed. Similarly, for more efficient system reliability analysis of those systems that can be modeled with unreliable nodes and perfect arcs, a reliability block diagram with general gates (RBDGG) was developed as an intuitive and easy-to-use method for system reliability analysis. One of the unique characteristics of RBDGG is to allow node connection relations of general gates such as the AND gate and the k-out-of-n gate other than the OR gate connection relation of the conventional reliability block diagram (RBD). Mathematical formulations for RBDGG and a method of mapping a RBDGG model into an equivalent Bayesian network model without losing the one-to-one matching characteristic of the RBDGG for quantitative analysis is also provided. With the application to two example systems, the usefulness of the proposed RBDGG is demonstrated.

  8. POSSIBILITY AND EVIDENCE-BASED RELIABILITY ANALYSIS AND DESIGN OPTIMIZATION

    Hong-Zhong Huang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Engineering design under uncertainty has gained considerable attention in recent years. A great multitude of new design optimization methodologies and reliability analysis approaches are put forth with the aim of accommodating various uncertainties. Uncertainties in practical engineering applications are commonly classified into two categories, i.e., aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty. Aleatory uncertainty arises because of unpredictable variation in the performance and processes of systems, it is irreducible even adding more data or knowledge. On the other hand, epistemic uncertainty stems from lack of knowledge of the system due to limited data, measurement limitations, or simplified approximations in modeling system behavior and it can be reduced by obtaining more data or knowledge. More specifically, aleatory uncertainty is naturally represented by a statistical distribution and its associated parameters can be characterized by sufficient data. If, however, the data is limited and can be quantified in a statistical sense, epistemic uncertainty can be considered as an alternative tool in such a situation. Of the several optional treatments for epistemic uncertainty, possibility theory and evidence theory have proved to be the most computationally efficient and stable for reliability analysis and engineering design optimization. This study first attempts to provide a better understanding of uncertainty in engineering design by giving a comprehensive overview of its classifications, theories and design considerations. Then a review is conducted of general topics such as the foundations and applications of possibility theory and evidence theory. This overview includes the most recent results from theoretical research, computational developments and performance improvement of possibility theory and evidence theory with an emphasis on revealing the capability and characteristics of quantifying uncertainty from different perspectives. Possibility and evidence theory-based reliability methods have many advantages for practical engineering when compared with traditional probability-based reliability methods. They can work well under limited data while the latter need large amounts of information, more than possible in engineering practice due to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The possible directions for future work are summarized.

  9. Reliability analysis of PLC safety equipment

    FMEA analysis for Nuclear Safety Grade PLC, failure rate prediction for nuclear safety grade PLC, sensitivity analysis for components failure rate of nuclear safety grade PLC, unavailability analysis support for nuclear safety system

  10. Reliability analysis of reactor systems by applying probability method

    Probability method was chosen for analysing the reactor system reliability is considered realistic since it is based on verified experimental data. In fact this is a statistical method. The probability method developed takes into account the probability distribution of permitted levels of relevant parameters and their particular influence on the reliability of the system as a whole. The proposed method is rather general, and was used for problem of thermal safety analysis of reactor system. This analysis enables to analyze basic properties of the system under different operation conditions, expressed in form of probability they show the reliability of the system on the whole as well as reliability of each component

  11. Ringhals 2 steam control system reliability/thermal-hydraulic analysis

    This paper evaluates the reliability of the proposed Westinghouse Distributed Processing Family (WDPF) control system and compares it to the reliability of the existing mechanical/ hydraulic control system at the Ringhals 2 nuclear power plant. The probabilities of the postulated failures in the existing control system are contrasted to those that would exist for the WDPF enhanced control and protection system. This paper is limited to a discussion about the reliability that relates to failures that have the potential to cause an overpressure in the moisture separator/reheaters (MSRs) of the Ringhals 2 plant. This power plant was built at a time when the requirements (in Sweden) did not include overpressure relief valves in the MSR. When the plant was originally constructed, the mechanical/ hydraulic control system was designed to be, and was used as, a method to prevent an overpressure condition in the MSR. The control system response time was fast enough to close the MSR inlet lines in the event that one or more discharge line valves was closed or failed closed. The authors also include a thermal-hydraulic analysis of some of the postulated (very low probability) secondary-side transients

  12. Reliability Analysis of an Offshore Structure

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Rackwitz, R.; Thoft-Christensen, Palle; Lebas, G.

    For an offshore structure in the North Sea it is assumed that information from measurements and inspections is available. As illustrations measurements of the significant wave height and the marine growth and different inspection and repair results are considered. It is shown how the reliability...... estimates of the structure can be updated using Bayesian techniques. By minimizing the total expected costs including inspection, repair and failure costs during the lifetime an optimal inspection and repair strategy can be determined. The decision variables are the number of inspections, the time intervals...

  13. Digital Processor Module Reliability Analysis of Nuclear Power Plant

    The system used in plant, military equipment, satellite, etc. consists of many electronic parts as control module, which requires relatively high reliability than other commercial electronic products. Specially, Nuclear power plant related to the radiation safety requires high safety and reliability, so most parts apply to Military-Standard level. Reliability prediction method provides the rational basis of system designs and also provides the safety significance of system operations. Thus various reliability prediction tools have been developed in recent decades, among of them, the MI-HDBK-217 method has been widely used as a powerful tool for the prediction. In this work, It is explained that reliability analysis work for Digital Processor Module (DPM, control module of SMART) is performed by Parts Stress Method based on MIL-HDBK-217F NOTICE2. We are using the Relex 7.6 of Relex software corporation, because reliability analysis process requires enormous part libraries and data for failure rate calculation

  14. Non-intrusive finite element reliability analysis methods

    Papaioannou, Iason

    2014-01-01

    This thesis focuses on the modeling of uncertainties in structural systems and on strategies for the reliability assessment of structures analysed by finite element programs. New concepts are introduced for the numerical treatment of spatially varied uncertain quantities through the discretization of the relevant random fields as well as for robust and efficient finite element reliability analysis and updating of the reliability in light of new information. The methods have been implemented i...

  15. Design and Analysis for Reliability of Wireless Sensor Network

    Yongxian Song

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Reliability is an important performance indicator of wireless sensor network, to some application fields, which have high demands in terms of reliability, it is particularly important to ensure reliability of network. At present, the reliability research findings of wireless sensor network are much more at home and abroad, but they mainly improve network reliability from the networks topology, reliable protocol and application layer fault correction and so on, and reliability of network is comprehensive considered from hardware and software aspects is much less. This paper adopts bionic hardware to implement bionic reconfigurable of wireless sensor network nodes, so as to the nodes have able to change their structure and behavior autonomously and dynamically, in the cases of the part hardware are failure, and the nodes can realize bionic self-healing. Secondly, Markov state diagram and probability analysis method are adopted to realize solution of functional model for reliability, establish the relationship between reliability and characteristic parameters for sink nodes, analyze sink nodes reliability model, so as to determine the reasonable parameters of the model and ensure reliability of sink nodes.

  16. Reliability analysis of self-actuated shutdown system

    An analytical study was performed for the reliability of a self-actuated shutdown system (SASS) under the unprotected loss of flow (ULOF) event in a typical loop-type liquid metal fast breeder reactor (LMFBR) by the use of the response surface Monte Carlo analysis method. Dominant parameters for the SASS, such as Curie point characteristics, subassembly outlet coolant temperature, electromagnetic surface condition, etc., were selected and their probability density functions (PDFs) were determined by the design study information and experimental data. To get the response surface function (RSF) for the maximum coolant temperature, transient analyses of ULOF were performed by utilizing the experimental design method in the determination of analytical cases. Then, the RSF was derived by the multi-variable regression analysis. The unreliability of the SASS was evaluated as a probability that the maximum coolant temperature exceeded an acceptable level, employing the Monte Carlo calculation using the above PDFs and RSF. In this study, sensitivities to the dominant parameter were compared. The dispersion of subassembly outlet coolant temperature near the SASS-was found to be one of the most sensitive parameters. Fault tree analysis was performed using this value for the SASS in order to evaluate the shutdown system reliability. As a result of this study, the effectiveness of the SASS on the reliability improvement in the LMFBR shutdown system was analytically confirmed. This study has been performed as a part of joint research and development projects for DFBR under the sponsorship of the nine Japanese electric power companies, Electric Power Development Company and the Japan Atomic Power Company. (author)

  17. Systems reliability analysis for the national ignition facility

    A Reliability, Availability and Maintainability (RAM) analysis was initiated for the National Ignition Facility (NIF). The NIF is an inertial confinement fusion research facility designed to achieve controlled thermonuclear reaction; the preferred site for the NIF is the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). The NIF RAM analysis has three purposes: (1) to allocate top level reliability and availability goals for the systems, (2) to develop an operability model for optimum maintainability, and (3) to determine the achievability of the allocated goals of the RAM parameters for the NIF systems and the facility operation as a whole. An allocation model assigns the reliability and availability goals for front line and support systems by a top-down approach; reliability analysis uses a bottom-up approach to determine the system reliability and availability from component level to system level

  18. Structural reliability analysis applied to pipeline risk analysis

    Gardiner, M. [GL Industrial Services, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Mendes, Renato F.; Donato, Guilherme V.P. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of pipelines requires two main components to be provided. These are models of the consequences that follow from some loss of containment incident, and models for the likelihood of such incidents occurring. This paper describes how PETROBRAS have used Structural Reliability Analysis for the second of these, to provide pipeline- and location-specific predictions of failure frequency for a number of pipeline assets. This paper presents an approach to estimating failure rates for liquid and gas pipelines, using Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to analyze the credible basic mechanisms of failure such as corrosion and mechanical damage. SRA is a probabilistic limit state method: for a given failure mechanism it quantifies the uncertainty in parameters to mathematical models of the load-resistance state of a structure and then evaluates the probability of load exceeding resistance. SRA can be used to benefit the pipeline risk management process by optimizing in-line inspection schedules, and as part of the design process for new construction in pipeline rights of way that already contain multiple lines. A case study is presented to show how the SRA approach has recently been used on PETROBRAS pipelines and the benefits obtained from it. (author)

  19. Reliability-Based Analysis of Concrete Dams

    Fouhy, David; Ros Bayona, Francisco

    2014-01-01

    Dams are designed and assessed based on traditional factor of safety methodology. Several drawbacks of this approach exist; for example varying failure probability for structures where the factor of safety is the same. This traditional factor of safety methodology imposes conservative assumptions in terms of both design and analysis. A probability-based analysis has been suggested to account for the omission of uncertainties and provide a less conservative analysis (Westberg & Johansson, ...

  20. Reliability analysis based on a direct ship hull strength assessment

    Feng, Guoqing; Wang, Dongsheng; Garbatov, Yordan; Guedes Soares, C.

    2015-12-01

    A method of reliability analysis based on a direct strength calculation employing the von Mises stress failure criterion is presented here. The short term strain distributions of ship hull structural components are identified through the statistical analysis of the wave-induced strain history and the long term distributions by the weighted summation of the short term strain distributions. The wave-induced long term strain distribution is combined with the still water strain. The extreme strain distribution of the response strain is obtained by statistical analysis of the combined strains. The limit state function of the reliability analysis is based on the von Mises stress failure criterion, including the related uncertainties due to the quality of the material and model uncertainty. The reliability index is calculated using FORM and sensitivity analysis of each variable that has effects on the reliability is also discussed.

  1. Analysis of MAC Protocol for Reliable Broadcast

    Savita Savita

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available In wireless communication It is important to find a reliable broadcasting protocol that is especially designed for an optimum performance of public-safety and data travelling related applications. Using RSU and OBU, there are four novel ideas presented in this research work, namely choosing the nearest following node as the network probe node, headway-based segmentation, non-uniform segmentation and application adaptive. The integration of these ideas results in a protocol that possesses minimum latency, minimum probability of collision in the acknowledgment messages and unique robustness at different speeds and traffic volumes. Wireless communications are becoming the dominant form of transferring information,and the most active research field. In this dissertation, we will present one of the most applicable forms of Ad-Hoc networks; the Vehicular Ad-Hoc Networks (VANETs. VANET is the technology of building a robust Ad-Hoc network between mobile vehicles and each other, besides, between mobile vehicles and roadside units.

  2. Analysis of MAC Protocol for Reliable Broadcast

    Savita Savita

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available In wireless communication It is important to find a reliable broadcasting protocol that is especially designed for an optimum performance of public-safety and data travelling related applications. Using RSU and OBU, there are four novel ideas presented in this research work, namely choosing the nearest following node as the network probe node, headway-based segmentation, non-uniform segmentation and application adaptive. The integration of these ideas results in a protocol that possesses minimum latency, minimum probability of collision in the acknowledgment messages and unique robustness at different speeds and traffic volumes. Wireless communications are becoming the dominant form of transferring information,and the most active research field. In this dissertation, we will present one of the most applicable forms of Ad-Hoc networks; the Vehicular Ad-Hoc Networks (VANETs. VANET is the technology of building a robust Ad-Hoc network between mobile vehicles and each other, besides, between mobile vehicles and roadside units.

  3. Energy investment cost benefit analysis reliability

    Much accuracy is required in methods to find out the profitability and choice of an energy investment. Beginning from a conventional cost-benefit analysis, this article discusses both profitability and other related problems

  4. Introduction to basic reliability analysis of Automatic Protective Systems

    This paper sets out the basic mathematical relationships for system reliability. Analysis is based on the constant failure rate model, and considers revealed and unrevealed faults, single components, redundant and non-redundant systems

  5. Reliability analysis of digital I and C systems at KAERI

    This paper provides an overview of the ongoing research activities on a reliability analysis of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems of nuclear power plants (NPPs) performed by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). The research activities include the development of a new safety-critical software reliability analysis method by integrating the advantages of existing software reliability analysis methods, a fault coverage estimation method based on fault injection experiments, and a new human reliability analysis method for computer-based main control rooms (MCRs) based on human performance data from the APR-1400 full-scope simulator. The research results are expected to be used to address various issues such as the licensing issues related to digital I and C probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for advanced digital-based NPPs. (author)

  6. Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis Project

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — It is proposed to develop and demonstrate an integrated total-system risk and reliability analysis approach that is based on dynamic, probabilistic simulation. This...

  7. The Reliability of Content Analysis of Computer Conference Communication

    Rattleff, Pernille

    2007-01-01

    The focus of this article is the reliability of content analysis of students' computer conference communication. Content analysis is often used when researching the relationship between learning and the use of information and communications technology in educational settings. A number of studies where content analysis is used and classification…

  8. Reliability based analysis of contact problems

    Powers, Lynn M.; Ghosn, Louis J.

    1988-01-01

    The Batdorf model is modified to include the reduction in shear due to the effect of compressive stresses on the crack face. This new formulation was used to obtain the probability of failure of ceramic components under contact stress conditions. The combined effect of the surface and volume flaws are included in the analysis. Due to the nature of the fracture of brittle materials under compressive loading, the component is modeled as a series system in order to establish bounds on the probability of failure.

  9. Discrete Event Simulation and Petri net Modeling for Reliability Analysis

    Behrooz Safarinejadian 1

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Analytical methods in reliability analysis are useful for studying simple problems. For complex networks with cross-linked (non-series/parallel component configurations, it is difficult to use mathematical reliability analysis. Powerful methods for reliability analysis of such systems have been developed using discrete event simulation. The main drawback of these methods is that they are computer time intensive. In this paper, the main idea behind these methods is further explored and modified in order to reduce the computational loads. The modified approach presented here leads to a great time saving which is very important for reliability analysis of large scale systems. This modified method is then modeled by Petri net, which is a powerful modeling tool. The network reliability modeling technique developed in the paper has two main advantages. First, it can be easily implemented through a systematic and standard approach. Second, the developed model will greatly help solving the reliability analysis problem since it is simple and graphical.

  10. Reliability and risk analysis of large systems with ageing components

    Kolowrocki, K. [Gdynia Maritime University, 81-962 Gdynia (Poland)], E-mail: katmatkk@am.gdynia.pl; Kwiatuszewska-Sarnecka, B. [Gdynia Maritime University, 81-962 Gdynia (Poland)

    2008-12-15

    Applications of limit reliability functions to the reliability evaluation of large multi-state systems composed of independent components are considered. The main emphasis is on multi-state systems with ageing components because of the importance of such an approach in safety analysis, assessment and prediction, and analysing the effectiveness of operation processes of real technical systems. The results concerned with multi-state series systems are applied to the reliability evaluation and risk function determination of a homogeneous bus transportation system. Results on limit reliability functions of a homogeneous multi-state 'm out of n' system are applied to durability evaluation of a steel rope. A non-homogeneous series-parallel pipeline systems composed of several lines of pipe segments is estimated as well. Moreover, the reliability evaluation of the model homogeneous parallel-series electrical energy distribution system is performed.

  11. Reliability and risk analysis of large systems with ageing components

    Applications of limit reliability functions to the reliability evaluation of large multi-state systems composed of independent components are considered. The main emphasis is on multi-state systems with ageing components because of the importance of such an approach in safety analysis, assessment and prediction, and analysing the effectiveness of operation processes of real technical systems. The results concerned with multi-state series systems are applied to the reliability evaluation and risk function determination of a homogeneous bus transportation system. Results on limit reliability functions of a homogeneous multi-state 'm out of n' system are applied to durability evaluation of a steel rope. A non-homogeneous series-parallel pipeline systems composed of several lines of pipe segments is estimated as well. Moreover, the reliability evaluation of the model homogeneous parallel-series electrical energy distribution system is performed

  12. Reliability analysis and utilization of PEMs in space application

    Jiang, Xiujie; Wang, Zhihua; Sun, Huixian; Chen, Xiaomin; Zhao, Tianlin; Yu, Guanghua; Zhou, Changyi

    2009-11-01

    More and more plastic encapsulated microcircuits (PEMs) are used in space missions to achieve high performance. Since PEMs are designed for use in terrestrial operating conditions, the successful usage of PEMs in space harsh environment is closely related to reliability issues, which should be considered firstly. However, there is no ready-made methodology for PEMs in space applications. This paper discusses the reliability for the usage of PEMs in space. This reliability analysis can be divided into five categories: radiation test, radiation hardness, screening test, reliability calculation and reliability assessment. One case study is also presented to illuminate the details of the process, in which a PEM part is used in a joint space program Double-Star Project between the European Space Agency (ESA) and China. The influence of environmental constrains including radiation, humidity, temperature and mechanics on the PEM part has been considered. Both Double-Star Project satellites are still running well in space now.

  13. Reliability analysis of nonlinear MDOF dynamic systems

    This paper presents a simplified procedure to estimate the probability of failure for nonlinear MDOF shear-type systems optimally designed due to the seismic excitation. The excitation is idealized as a nonstationary stochastic process. With the aid of the response modification factor-ductility factor relationship established by the authors for these systems, 'an equivalent linear criteria' of such systems is introduced. Then, a linear response and the equivalent criteria can be used to evaluate the limit state probability as a solution to the classical first excursion probability problem at least in approximation. An example of a three-story building is demonstrated and the results are compared by using a simulation method. (orig.)

  14. Multistep reliability analysis and optimization of complex systems

    The paper describes an approach for reliability analysis and optimization of complex systems. The approach is based on event-tree representation, cut sets analysis, bound approximation and sensitivity analysis. Reference is made to the methods and computer programs developed for the various steps of the analysis. In particular, details are given for the sensitivity analysis and optimization. Examples of application to reactor scram systems and electrical supply systems are reported

  15. Quantitative characterization of the reliability of simplex buses and stars to compare their benefits in fieldbuses

    Fieldbuses targeted to highly dependable distributed embedded systems are shifting from bus to star topologies. Surprisingly, despite the efforts into this direction, engineers lack of analyses that quantitatively characterize the system reliability achievable by buses and stars. Thus, to guide engineers in developing adequate bus and star fieldbuses, this work models, quantifies and compares the system reliability provided by simplex buses and stars for the case of the Controller Area Network (CAN). It clarifies how relevant dependability-related aspects affect reliability, refuting some intuitive ideas, and revealing some previously unknown bus and star benefits. - Highlights: • SANs models that quantify the reliability of simplex buses/stars in fieldbuses. • Models cover system relevant dependability-related features abstracted in the literature. • Results refute intuitive ideas about buses and stars and show some unexpected effects. • Models and results can guide the design of reliable simplex bus/stars fieldbuses

  16. Research on Law’s Mask Texture Analysis System Reliability

    Gan Hong Seng

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Texture analysis of X-ray bone image using Laws’ mask for direct evaluation of the bone quality has been popular. Nevertheless, detailed reliability evaluation of the system classification has been relatively unknown. In this study, we will examine the reliability of the Laws’ mask system classification by using the confusion matrix approach. The precise detection system by using standard deviation statistical descriptor is supported by the true positive of 87.5% and true negative of 83.33%. In conclusion, the statistical analysis of the texture based osteoporosis detection system’s reliability discloses a true potential in this detection technique. Nevertheless, future researches should include a larger image database to enhance the reliability of the results.

  17. Application of system reliability analysis feedback to improve system availability

    Though all the perceived operational and maintenance requirement are normally well taken care-of at design stage itself, still the scope for improvement either in system design or in operational/maintenance practices, never ends in order to further improve the system's performance/reliability. This paper brings out a case study as to how Reliability Analysis feedback has been gainfully utilized in identification of and reduction of individual component maintenance down time, which was indirectly degrading the reliability of one of the Reactor Shutdown system (namely Secondary Shutdown System-Sass), at KAPS. (author)

  18. Reliability analysis of a BWR decay heat removal system

    The reliability of an additional low pressure heat removal system, installed in Leibstadt Nuclear Power Station, has been analysed using probabilistic risk analysis techniques. Leibstadt is a General Electric boiling water reactor of the BWR/6 product line with a Mark-III containment. The need for the additional system is discussed in terms of the Licensing Criteria applicable to nuclear power plants in Switzerland. As a result of the concern in the U.S. over the reliability of decay heat al capability of LWR's, further analyses have been undertaken to determine the effect of this additional system on the reliability of decay heat function of Leibstadt

  19. Application of Bayesian Methods for Age-dependent Reliability Analysis

    Alzbutas, Robertas; Iemantas, Tomas

    2012-01-01

    In this paper authors present a general methodology for age dependent reliability analysis of degrading or ageing systems, structures and components.The methodology is based on Bayesian methods and inference, its ability to incorporate prior information and on idea that ageing can be thought as age dependent change of believes about reliability parameters, when change of belief occurs not just due to new failure data or other information which becomes available in time, but also it continuous...

  20. Architecture based Reliability Analysis of Continuously Running Concurrent Software Applications

    Rehab A. El Kharboutly; Reda. Ammar; Swapna S. Gokhale

    2008-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to describe a reliability and availability analysis methodology for a continuously running, concurrent application. We propose a state space approach to represent the architecture of a concurrent application, which is then mapped to an irreducible discrete time Markov chain (DTMC) to obtain architectural statistics. We discuss how the application architecture can be extracted from profile data to facilitate the use of our methodology to analyze the reliability o...

  1. Research on Law’s Mask Texture Analysis System Reliability

    Gan Hong Seng; Tan Tian Swee; Hum Yan Chai

    2014-01-01

    Texture analysis of X-ray bone image using Laws’ mask for direct evaluation of the bone quality has been popular. Nevertheless, detailed reliability evaluation of the system classification has been relatively unknown. In this study, we will examine the reliability of the Laws’ mask system classification by using the confusion matrix approach. The precise detection system by using standard deviation statistical descriptor is supported by the true positive of 87.5% and true negative of 83.33%. ...

  2. Reliability and safety analysis for systems of fusion device

    Highlights: • Reliability is very important from fusion devices efficiency perspective. • Rich experience of probabilistic safety analysis exists in nuclear industry. • Reliability and safety analysis was applied for systems of fusion device. • This enables to identify and prioritize availability improvement measures. • Recommendations are based on cost effectiveness for risk decrease options. - Abstract: Fusion energy or thermonuclear power is a promising, literally endless source of energy. Development of fusion power is still under investigation and experimental phase, and a number of fusion devices are under construction in Europe. Since fusion energy is innovative and fusion devices contain unique and expensive equipment, an issue of their reliability is very important from their efficiency perspective. A Reliability, Availability, Maintainability, Inspectability (RAMI) analysis is being performed or is going to be performed in the nearest future for such fusion devices as ITER and DEMO in order to ensure reliable and efficient operation for experiments (e.g., in ITER) or for energy production purposes (e.g., in DEMO). On the other hand, rich experience of the reliability and Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) exists in nuclear industry for fission power plants and other nuclear installations. In this paper, the Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) device is mainly considered. This stellarator device is in commissioning stage in the Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, Greifswald, Germany (IPP). In the frame of cooperation between the IPP and the Lithuanian Energy Institute (LEI) under the European Fusion Development Agreement a pilot project of a reliability analysis of the W7-X systems was performed with a purpose to adopt Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) PSA experience for fusion device systems. During the project reliability and safety (risk) analysis of a Divertor Target Cooling Circuit, which is an important system for permanent and reliable operation of in-vessel components of the W7-X, was performed. Application of reliability and safety analysis for systems of fusion device enable to recommend and prioritize availability improvement measures for such systems and thus increase efficiency of fusion device. The methods and models described in this paper could be easily adopted for other systems of various fusion devices

  3. Reliability analysis framework for computer-assisted medical decision systems

    We present a technique that enhances computer-assisted decision (CAD) systems with the ability to assess the reliability of each individual decision they make. Reliability assessment is achieved by measuring the accuracy of a CAD system with known cases similar to the one in question. The proposed technique analyzes the feature space neighborhood of the query case to dynamically select an input-dependent set of known cases relevant to the query. This set is used to assess the local (query-specific) accuracy of the CAD system. The estimated local accuracy is utilized as a reliability measure of the CAD response to the query case. The underlying hypothesis of the study is that CAD decisions with higher reliability are more accurate. The above hypothesis was tested using a mammographic database of 1337 regions of interest (ROIs) with biopsy-proven ground truth (681 with masses, 656 with normal parenchyma). Three types of decision models, (i) a back-propagation neural network (BPNN), (ii) a generalized regression neural network (GRNN), and (iii) a support vector machine (SVM), were developed to detect masses based on eight morphological features automatically extracted from each ROI. The performance of all decision models was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The study showed that the proposed reliability measure is a strong predictor of the CAD system's case-specific accuracy. Specifically, the ROC area index for CAD predictions with high reliability was significantly better than for those with low reliability values. This result was consistent across all decision models investigated in the study. The proposed case-specific reliability analysis technique could be used to alert the CAD user when an opinion that is unlikely to be reliable is offered. The technique can be easily deployed in the clinical environment because it is applicable with a wide range of classifiers regardless of their structure and it requires neither additional training nor building multiple decision models to assess the case-specific CAD accuracy

  4. Comparing the Reliability of Regular Topologies on a Backbone Network. A Case Study

    Cecilio, Sergio Labeage; Gutierrez Lopez, Jose Manuel; Riaz, M. Tahir; Pedersen, Jens Myrup

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to compare the reliability of regular topologies on a backbone network. The study is focused on a large-scale fiberoptic network. Different regular topological solutions as single ring, double ring or 4-Regular grid are applied to the case study, and compared in terms of...

  5. Development of the go-flow reliability analysis support system

    The paper describes a support system for the GO-FLOW reliability analysis. The authors have developed the GO-FLOW methodology and performed many kinds of system reliability analysis by the GO-FLOW methodology. If an engineering system becomes large, the analysis procedure requires a great effort, especially to construct a GO-FLOW chart and to produce input data for the GO-FLOW analysis program. The GO-FLOW analysis support system is a fully integrated personal computer based, menu driven analysis system. The detailed explanation for the GO-FLOW chart editor and the GO-FLOW chart plotting program is given. By this support system, the GO-FLOW analysis is performed as if it were done only on a personal computer placed on the analyst's own desk. This support system makes the GO-FLOW methodology a powerful tool in a living PSA. (author). 5 refs, 7 figs

  6. Reliability and vulnerability analyses of critical infrastructures: Comparing two approaches in the context of power systems

    Society depends on services provided by critical infrastructures, and hence it is important that they are reliable and robust. Two main approaches for gaining knowledge required for designing and improving critical infrastructures are reliability analysis and vulnerability analysis. The former analyses the ability of the system to perform its intended function; the latter analyses its inability to withstand strains and the effects of the consequent failures. The two approaches have similarities but also some differences with respect to what type of information they generate about the system. In this view, the main purpose of this paper is to discuss and contrast these approaches. To strengthen the discussion and exemplify its findings, a Monte Carlo-based reliability analysis and a vulnerability analysis are considered in their application to a relatively simple, but representative, system the IEEE RTS96 electric power test system. The exemplification reveals that reliability analysis provides a good picture of the system likely behaviour, but fails to capture a large portion of the high consequence scenarios, which are instead captured in the vulnerability analysis. Although these scenarios might be estimated to have small probabilities of occurrence, they should be identified, considered and treated cautiously, as probabilistic analyses should not be the only input to decision-making for the design and protection of critical infrastructures. The general conclusion that can be drawn from the findings of the example is that vulnerability analysis should be used to complement reliability studies, as well as other forms of probabilistic risk analysis. Measures should be sought for reducing both the vulnerability, i.e. improving the system ability to withstand strains and stresses, and the reliability, i.e. improving the likely behaviour

  7. On reliability analysis of multi-categorical forecasts

    J. Brcker

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Reliability analysis of probabilistic forecasts, in particular through the rank histogram or Talagrand diagram, is revisited. Two shortcomings are pointed out: Firstly, a uniform rank histogram is but a necessary condition for reliability. Secondly, if the forecast is assumed to be reliable, an indication is needed how far a histogram is expected to deviate from uniformity merely due to randomness. Concerning the first shortcoming, it is suggested that forecasts be grouped or stratified along suitable criteria, and that reliability is analyzed individually for each forecast stratum. A reliable forecast should have uniform histograms for all individual forecast strata, not only for all forecasts as a whole. As to the second shortcoming, instead of the observed frequencies, the probability of the observed frequency is plotted, providing and indication of the likelihood of the result under the hypothesis that the forecast is reliable. Furthermore, a Goodness-Of-Fit statistic is discussed which is essentially the reliability term of the Ignorance score. The discussed tools are applied to medium range forecasts for 2 m-temperature anomalies at several locations and lead times. The forecasts are stratified along the expected ranked probability score. Those forecasts which feature a high expected score turn out to be particularly unreliable.

  8. RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF RING, AGENT AND CLUSTER BASED DISTRIBUTED SYSTEMS

    R.SEETHALAKSHMI

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The introduction of pervasive devices and mobile devices has led to immense growth of real time distributed processing. In such context reliability of the computing environment is very important. Reliability is the probability that the devices, links, processes, programs and files work efficiently for the specified period of time and in the specified condition. Distributed systems are available as conventional ring networks, clusters and agent based systems. Reliability of such systems is focused. These networks are heterogeneous and scalable in nature. There are several factors, which are to be considered for reliability estimation. These include the application related factors like algorithms, data-set sizes, memory usage pattern, input-output, communication patterns, task granularity and load-balancing. It also includes the hardware related factors like processor architecture, memory hierarchy, input-output configuration and network. The software related factors concerning reliability are operating systems, compiler, communication protocols, libraries and preprocessor performance. In estimating the reliability of a system, the performance estimation is an important aspect. Reliability analysis is approached using probability.

  9. Human reliability analysis methods for probabilistic safety assessment

    Human reliability analysis (HRA) of a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) includes identifying human actions from safety point of view, modelling the most important of them in PSA models, and assessing their probabilities. As manifested by many incidents and studies, human actions may have both positive and negative effect on safety and economy. Human reliability analysis is one of the areas of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) that has direct applications outside the nuclear industry. The thesis focuses upon developments in human reliability analysis methods and data. The aim is to support PSA by extending the applicability of HRA. The thesis consists of six publications and a summary. The summary includes general considerations and a discussion about human actions in the nuclear power plant (NPP) environment. A condensed discussion about the results of the attached publications is then given, including new development in methods and data. At the end of the summary part, the contribution of the publications to good practice in HRA is presented. In the publications, studies based on the collection of data on maintenance-related failures, simulator runs and expert judgement are presented in order to extend the human reliability analysis database. Furthermore, methodological frameworks are presented to perform a comprehensive HRA, including shutdown conditions, to study reliability of decision making, and to study the effects of wrong human actions. In the last publication, an interdisciplinary approach to analysing human decision making is presented. The publications also include practical applications of the presented methodological frameworks. (orig.)

  10. Reliability analysis for Atucha II reactor protection system signals

    Atucha II is a 745 MW Argentine Power Nuclear Reactor constructed by ENACE SA, Nuclear Argentine Company for Electrical Power Generation and SIEMENS AG KWU, Erlangen, Germany. A preliminary modular logic analysis of RPS (Reactor Protection System) signals was performed by means of the well known Swedish professional risk and reliability software named Risk-Spectrum taking as a basis a reference signal coded as JR17ER003 which command the two moderator loops valves. From the reliability and behavior knowledge for this reference signal follows an estimation of the reliability for the other 97 RPS signals. Because the preliminary character of this analysis Main Important Measures are not performed at this stage. Reliability is by the statistic value named unavailability predicted. The scope of this analysis is restricted from the measurement elements to the RPS buffer outputs. In the present context only one redundancy is analyzed so in the Instrumentation and Control area there no CCF (Common Cause Failures) present for signals. Finally those unavailability values could be introduced in the failure domain for the posterior complete Atucha II reliability analysis which includes all mechanical and electromechanical features. Also an estimation of the spurious frequency of RPS signals defined as faulty by no trip is performed

  11. Reliability analysis of cluster-based ad-hoc networks

    The mobile ad-hoc wireless network (MAWN) is a new and emerging network scheme that is being employed in a variety of applications. The MAWN varies from traditional networks because it is a self-forming and dynamic network. The MAWN is free of infrastructure and, as such, only the mobile nodes comprise the network. Pairs of nodes communicate either directly or through other nodes. To do so, each node acts, in turn, as a source, destination, and relay of messages. The virtue of a MAWN is the flexibility this provides; however, the challenge for reliability analyses is also brought about by this unique feature. The variability and volatility of the MAWN configuration makes typical reliability methods (e.g. reliability block diagram) inappropriate because no single structure or configuration represents all manifestations of a MAWN. For this reason, new methods are being developed to analyze the reliability of this new networking technology. New published methods adapt to this feature by treating the configuration probabilistically or by inclusion of embedded mobility models. This paper joins both methods together and expands upon these works by modifying the problem formulation to address the reliability analysis of a cluster-based MAWN. The cluster-based MAWN is deployed in applications with constraints on networking resources such as bandwidth and energy. This paper presents the problem's formulation, a discussion of applicable reliability metrics for the MAWN, and illustration of a Monte Carlo simulation method through the analysis of several example networks

  12. Some Aspects in High Quality Reliability Data Collection and Analysis

    Living probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plant requires quantitative reliability parameters. To obtain high quality reliability data in complicated systems such as nuclear power plant, there needs to understand hardware such as plant, systems, and components, and to consider software such as culture, human, management, organization, and to understand plant life cycles such as design, installation, operation and maintenance in a wholly integrated manner. Now we are in a situation to set up of a new establishment of reliability database systems in Korea for living PSA in near future. A few but not less important cases to be reminded which I have experienced during the very initial phase of reliability data collection and analysis for the sample plant and components are introduced here. (author)

  13. Distribution-level electricity reliability: Temporal trends using statistical analysis

    This paper helps to address the lack of comprehensive, national-scale information on the reliability of the U.S. electric power system by assessing trends in U.S. electricity reliability based on the information reported by the electric utilities on power interruptions experienced by their customers. The research analyzes up to 10 years of electricity reliability information collected from 155 U.S. electric utilities, which together account for roughly 50% of total U.S. electricity sales. We find that reported annual average duration and annual average frequency of power interruptions have been increasing over time at a rate of approximately 2% annually. We find that, independent of this trend, installation or upgrade of an automated outage management system is correlated with an increase in the reported annual average duration of power interruptions. We also find that reliance on IEEE Standard 1366-2003 is correlated with higher reported reliability compared to reported reliability not using the IEEE standard. However, we caution that we cannot attribute reliance on the IEEE standard as having caused or led to higher reported reliability because we could not separate the effect of reliance on the IEEE standard from other utility-specific factors that may be correlated with reliance on the IEEE standard. - Highlights: ► We assess trends in electricity reliability based on the information reported by the electric utilities. ► We use rigorous statistical techniques to account for utility-specific differences. ► We find modest declines in reliability analyzing interruption duration and frequency experienced by utility customers. ► Installation or upgrade of an OMS is correlated to an increase in reported duration of power interruptions. ► We find reliance in IEEE Standard 1366 is correlated with higher reported reliability.

  14. Reactor protection system reliability analysis of Daya Bay NPP

    Based on the reliability analysis methods of FMEA and FTA, according to the result of ETA of PRA in Daya by NPP, the top events of the fault trees of reactor protection system and the success criteria were established. By using RISK-SPECTRUM procedure, the unavailability and the minimal cut-sets (MCS) of the fault trees were obtained. The results of analysis was put into the visual risk analysis software of Daya bay NPP as the support of data

  15. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  16. Architecture based Reliability Analysis of Continuously Running Concurrent Software Applications

    Rehab A. El Kharboutly

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to describe a reliability and availability analysis methodology for a continuously running, concurrent application. We propose a state space approach to represent the architecture of a concurrent application, which is then mapped to an irreducible discrete time Markov chain (DTMC to obtain architectural statistics. We discuss how the application architecture can be extracted from profile data to facilitate the use of our methodology to analyze the reliability of practical software applications. We illustrate the methodology using a case study of a MRSS news ticker application. The state space explosion issue which may arise in the practical application of the methodology is then discussed and methods to alleviate the issue are suggested. To the best of our knowledge, this research is one of the first steps in pushing the state of the art in architecturebased software reliability analysis from sequential to concurrent software applications.

  17. Reliability analysis - systematic approach based on limited data

    The initial approaches required for reliability analysis are outlined. These approaches highlight the system boundaries, examine the conditions under which the system is required to operate, and define the overall performance requirements. The discussion is illustrated by a simple example of an automatic protective system for a nuclear reactor. It is then shown how the initial approach leads to a method of defining the system, establishing performance parameters of interest and determining the general form of reliability models to be used. The overall system model and the availability of reliability data at the system level are next examined. An iterative process is then described whereby the reliability model and data requirements are systematically refined at progressively lower hierarchic levels of the system. At each stage, the approach is illustrated with examples from the protective system previously described. The main advantages of the approach put forward are the systematic process of analysis, the concentration of assessment effort in the critical areas and the maximum use of limited reliability data. (author)

  18. Reliability analysis - a systematic approach based on limited data

    The paper outlines the initial approaches required for reliability analysis. These approaches highlight the system boundaries, examine the conditions under which the system is required to operate and define the overall performance requirements. The discussion is illustrated by a simple example of an automatic protective system for a nuclear reactor. It is shown how the initial approach leads to a method of defining the system, establishing performance parameters of interest and determining the general form of reliability models to be used. The paper next examines the overall system model and the availability of reliability data at the system level. An iterative process is then described whereby the reliability model and data requirements are systematically refined at progressively lower hierarchic levels of the system. At each stage, the approach is illustrated with examples from the protective system previously described. The main advantages of the approach are the systematic process of analysis, the concentration of assessment effort in the critical areas and the maximum use of limited reliability data

  19. Behaviour State Analysis in Rett Syndrome: Continuous Data Reliability Measurement

    Woodyatt, Gail; Marinac, Julie; Darnell, Ross; Sigafoos, Jeff; Halle, James

    2004-01-01

    Awareness of optimal behaviour states of children with profound intellectual disability has been reported in the literature as a potentially useful tool for planning intervention within this population. Some arguments have been raised, however, which question the reliability and validity of previously published work on behaviour state analysis.…

  20. Human reliability analysis of Lingao Nuclear Power Station

    The necessity of human reliability analysis (HRA) of Lingao Nuclear Power Station are analyzed, and the method and operation procedures of HRA is briefed. One of the human factors events (HFE) is analyzed in detail and some questions of HRA are discussed. The authors present the analytical results of 61 HFEs, and make a brief introduction of HRA contribution to Lingao Nuclear Power Station

  1. Reliability Analysis of a Mono-Tower Platform

    Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Enevoldsen, I.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Brincker, Rune

    1990-01-01

    In this paper, a reliability analysis of a Mono-tower platform is presented. Te failure modes considered are yielding in the tube cross sections and fatigue failure in the butts welds. The fatigue failrue mode is investigated with a fatigue model, where the fatigue strength is expressed through S...

  2. Reliability-Based Robustness Analysis for a Croatian Sports Hall

    Čizmar, Dean; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Rajčić, Vlatka

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a probabilistic approach for structural robustness assessment for a timber structure built a few years ago. The robustness analysis is based on a structural reliability based framework for robustness and a simplified mechanical system modelling of a timber truss system. A comp...

  3. BANK RATING. A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

    Batrancea Ioan

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Banks in Romania offers its customers a wide range of products but which involves both risk taking. Therefore researchers seek to build rating models to help managers of banks to risk of non-recovery of loans and interest. In the following we highlight rating Raiffeisen Bank, BCR-ERSTE Bank and Transilvania Bank, based on the models CAAMPL and Stickney making a comparative analysis of the two rating models.

  4. A study of operational and testing reliability in software reliability analysis

    Yang, B.; Xie, M

    2000-12-01

    Software reliability is an important aspect of any complex equipment today. Software reliability is usually estimated based on reliability models such as nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) models. Software systems are improving in testing phase, while it normally does not change in operational phase. Depending on whether the reliability is to be predicted for testing phase or operation phase, different measure should be used. In this paper, two different reliability concepts, namely, the operational reliability and the testing reliability, are clarified and studied in detail. These concepts have been mixed up or even misused in some existing literature. Using different reliability concept will lead to different reliability values obtained and it will further lead to different reliability-based decisions made. The difference of the estimated reliabilities is studied and the effect on the optimal release time is investigated.

  5. Reliable analysis for pressure vessel based on ANSYS

    With the PDS of ANSYS procedure, the ramdomicity of the actually structure design parameters is simulated, by taking the wall thickness, pressure load and elastic module as input random variables. Based on the reliability analysis of the pressure vessel by Monte-Carlo procedure, the stress probability distribution of this finite element analysis model and the sensitivity of the design parameters such as the pressure load and wall thickness to the stress distribution are obtained. (authors)

  6. Modelling application for cognitive reliability and error analysis method

    Fabio De Felice

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The automation of production systems has delegated to machines the execution of highly repetitive and standardized tasks. In the last decade, however, the failure of the automatic factory model has led to partially automated configurations of production systems. Therefore, in this scenario, centrality and responsibility of the role entrusted to the human operators are exalted because it requires problem solving and decision making ability. Thus, human operator is the core of a cognitive process that leads to decisions, influencing the safety of the whole system in function of their reliability. The aim of this paper is to propose a modelling application for cognitive reliability and error analysis method.

  7. Human Reliability Analysis for Digital Human-Machine Interfaces

    Ronald L. Boring

    2014-06-01

    This paper addresses the fact that existing human reliability analysis (HRA) methods do not provide guidance on digital human-machine interfaces (HMIs). Digital HMIs are becoming ubiquitous in nuclear power operations, whether through control room modernization or new-build control rooms. Legacy analog technologies like instrumentation and control (I&C) systems are costly to support, and vendors no longer develop or support analog technology, which is considered technologically obsolete. Yet, despite the inevitability of digital HMI, no current HRA method provides guidance on how to treat human reliability considerations for digital technologies.

  8. Accident Sequence Evaluation Program: Human reliability analysis procedure

    Swain, A.D.

    1987-02-01

    This document presents a shortened version of the procedure, models, and data for human reliability analysis (HRA) which are presented in the Handbook of Human Reliability Analysis With emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications (NUREG/CR-1278, August 1983). This shortened version was prepared and tried out as part of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program (ASEP) funded by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and managed by Sandia National Laboratories. The intent of this new HRA procedure, called the ''ASEP HRA Procedure,'' is to enable systems analysts, with minimal support from experts in human reliability analysis, to make estimates of human error probabilities and other human performance characteristics which are sufficiently accurate for many probabilistic risk assessments. The ASEP HRA Procedure consists of a Pre-Accident Screening HRA, a Pre-Accident Nominal HRA, a Post-Accident Screening HRA, and a Post-Accident Nominal HRA. The procedure in this document includes changes made after tryout and evaluation of the procedure in four nuclear power plants by four different systems analysts and related personnel, including human reliability specialists. The changes consist of some additional explanatory material (including examples), and more detailed definitions of some of the terms. 42 refs.

  9. Accident Sequence Evaluation Program: Human reliability analysis procedure

    This document presents a shortened version of the procedure, models, and data for human reliability analysis (HRA) which are presented in the Handbook of Human Reliability Analysis With emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications (NUREG/CR-1278, August 1983). This shortened version was prepared and tried out as part of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program (ASEP) funded by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and managed by Sandia National Laboratories. The intent of this new HRA procedure, called the ''ASEP HRA Procedure,'' is to enable systems analysts, with minimal support from experts in human reliability analysis, to make estimates of human error probabilities and other human performance characteristics which are sufficiently accurate for many probabilistic risk assessments. The ASEP HRA Procedure consists of a Pre-Accident Screening HRA, a Pre-Accident Nominal HRA, a Post-Accident Screening HRA, and a Post-Accident Nominal HRA. The procedure in this document includes changes made after tryout and evaluation of the procedure in four nuclear power plants by four different systems analysts and related personnel, including human reliability specialists. The changes consist of some additional explanatory material (including examples), and more detailed definitions of some of the terms. 42 refs

  10. Strength Reliability Analysis of Turbine Blade Using Surrogate Models

    Wei Duan

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available There are many stochastic parameters that have an effect on the reliability of steam turbine blades performance in practical operation. In order to improve the reliability of blade design, it is necessary to take these stochastic parameters into account. In this study, a variable cross-section twisted blade is investigated and geometrical parameters, material parameters and load parameters are considered as random variables. A reliability analysis method as a combination of a Finite Element Method (FEM, a surrogate model and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS, is applied to solve the blade reliability analysis. Based on the blade finite element parametrical model and the experimental design, two kinds of surrogate models, Polynomial Response Surface (PRS and Artificial Neural Network (ANN, are applied to construct the approximation analytical expressions between the blade responses (including maximum stress and deflection and random input variables, which act as a surrogate of finite element solver to drastically reduce the number of simulations required. Then the surrogate is used for most of the samples needed in the Monte Carlo method and the statistical parameters and cumulative distribution functions of the maximum stress and deflection are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the probabilistic sensitivities analysis, which combines the magnitude of the gradient and the width of the scatter range of the random input variables, is applied to evaluate how much the maximum stress and deflection of the blade are influenced by the random nature of input parameters.

  11. Reliability analysis of rotor blades of tidal stream turbines

    Tidal stream turbines are used for converting kinetic energy of tidal currents into electricity. There are a number of uncertainties involved in the design of such devices and their components. To ensure safety of the turbines these uncertainties must be taken into account. The paper shows how this may be achieved for the design of rotor blades of horizontal-axis tidal stream turbines in the context of bending failure due to extreme loading. Initially, basic characteristics of such turbines in general and their blades in particular are briefly described. A probabilistic model of tidal current velocity fluctuations, which are the main source of load uncertainty, is then presented. This is followed by the description of reliability analysis of the blades, which takes into account uncertainties associated with tidal current speed, the blade resistance and the model used to calculate bending moments in the blades. Finally, the paper demonstrates how results of the reliability analysis can be applied to set values of the partial factors for the blade design. - Highlights: • A probabilistic model of the maximum of tidal current velocity fluctuations is proposed. • Reliability analysis of rotor blades of a tidal stream turbine is described. • Influence of pitch control system on the blade reliability is investigated. • Partial safety factors for the design of tidal turbine rotor blades are calibrated

  12. On Reliability Analysis of Fault-tolerant Multistage Interconnection Networks

    Rinkle Aggarwal

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The design of a suitable interconnection network for inter-processor communication is one of the key issues of the system performance. The reliability of these networks and their ability to continue operating despite failures are major concerns in determining the overall system performance. In this paper a new irregular network IABN has been proposed modifying existing ABN network. ABN is a regular multipath network with limited fault tolerance. The reliabilities of the IABN and ABN multi-stage interconnection networks have been calculated and compared in terms of the Upper and Lower bounds of Mean time to failure (MTTF.The IABN is a network that provides much better fault-tolerance by providing three time more paths between any pair of source-destination and better reliability at the expanse of little more cost than ABN.

  13. Reliability Analysis of Free Jet Scour Below Dams

    Chuanqi Li

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Current formulas for calculating scour depth below of a free over fall are mostly deterministic in nature and do not adequately consider the uncertainties of various scouring parameters. A reliability-based assessment of scour, taking into account uncertainties of parameters and coefficients involved, should be performed. This paper studies the reliability of a dam foundation under the threat of scour. A model for calculating the reliability of scour and estimating the probability of failure of the dam foundation subjected to scour is presented. The Maximum Entropy Method is applied to construct the probability density function (PDF of the performance function subject to the moment constraints. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS is applied for uncertainty analysis. An example is considered, and there liability of its scour is computed, the influence of various random variables on the probability failure is analyzed.

  14. Reliability analysis of two unit parallel repairable industrial system

    Mohit Kumar Kakkar

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work is to present a reliability and profit analysis of a two-dissimilar parallel unit system under the assumption that operative unit cannot fail after post repair inspection and replacement and there is only one repair facility. Failure and repair times of each unit are assumed to be uncorrelated. Using regenerative point technique various reliability characteristics are obtained which are useful to system designers and industrial managers. Graphical behaviors of mean time to system failure (MTSF and profit function have also been studied. In this paper, some important measures of reliability characteristics of a two non-identical unit standby system model with repair, inspection and post repair are obtained using regenerative point technique.

  15. Maintenance management of railway infrastructures based on reliability analysis

    Railway infrastructure maintenance plays a crucial role for rail transport. It aims at guaranteeing safety of operations and availability of railway tracks and related equipment for traffic regulation. Moreover, it is one major cost for rail transport operations. Thus, the increased competition in traffic market is asking for maintenance improvement, aiming at the reduction of maintenance expenditures while keeping the safety of operations. This issue is addressed by the methodology presented in the paper. The first step of the methodology consists of a family-based approach for the equipment reliability analysis; its purpose is the identification of families of railway items which can be given the same reliability targets. The second step builds the reliability model of the railway system for identifying the most critical items, given a required service level for the transportation system. The two methods have been implemented and tested in practical case studies, in the context of Rete Ferroviaria Italiana, the Italian public limited company for railway transportation.

  16. A framework for intelligent reliability centered maintenance analysis

    To improve the efficiency of reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) analysis, case-based reasoning (CBR), as a kind of artificial intelligence (AI) technology, was successfully introduced into RCM analysis process, and a framework for intelligent RCM analysis (IRCMA) was studied. The idea for IRCMA is based on the fact that the historical records of RCM analysis on similar items can be referenced and used for the current RCM analysis of a new item. Because many common or similar items may exist in the analyzed equipment, the repeated tasks of RCM analysis can be considerably simplified or avoided by revising the similar cases in conducting RCM analysis. Based on the previous theory studies, an intelligent RCM analysis system (IRCMAS) prototype was developed. This research has focused on the description of the definition, basic principles as well as a framework of IRCMA, and discussion of critical techniques in the IRCMA. Finally, IRCMAS prototype is presented based on a case study

  17. Reliability analysis of service water system under earthquake

    Service water system is one of the important safety systems in nuclear power plant, whose failure probability is always gained by system reliability analysis. The probability of equipment failure under the earthquake is the function of the peak acceleration of earthquake motion, while the occurrence of earthquake is of randomicity, thus the traditional fault tree method in current probability safety assessment is not powerful enough to deal with such case of conditional probability problem. An analysis frame was put forward for system reliability evaluation in seismic condition in this paper, in which Monte Carlo simulation was used to deal with conditional probability problem. Annual failure probability of service water system was calculated, and failure probability of 1.46X10-4 per year was obtained. The analysis result is in accordance with the data which indicate equipment seismic resistance capability, and the rationality of the model is validated. (authors)

  18. Virtual stress amplitude-based low cycle fatigue reliability analysis

    A method for virtual stress amplitude-based low cycle fatigue reliability analysis is developed. Different from existent methods, probability-based modified Ramberg-Osgood stress-strain relations (P-ε-σ curves) are newly introduced to take into account the scatter of stress-strain responses, where the metallurgical quality of material is not enough good i.e. weld metal to show a same stress-strain response for different specimens under same loading level. In addition, a virtual stress amplitude-based analysis is used to be in agreement with the existent codes for nuclear components. i.e. ASME section III. The analysis is performed by a principle of the stochastic analysis system in same safety level concurrently. Combined the probability-based modified Ramberg-Osgood stress-strain relations, the probability-based Langer S-N curves (P-S-N curves) and the Neuber's local stress-strain rule, the method can be applied to predict the fatigue life at specified reliability and loading history and to estimate the reliability at specified loading history and expectation fatigue life. Applicability of the method has been indicated by a test analysis of 1Cr18Ni9ti steel-weld metal, which was used for machining the pipes of some nuclear reactors, during low cycle fatigue

  19. Asymptotic Sampling for Reliability Analysis of Adhesive Bonded Stepped Lap Composite Joints

    Kimiaeifar, Amin; Lund, Erik; Thomsen, Ole Thybo; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    is a promising and time efficient tool to calculate the probability of failure, is utilized, and a probabilistic model for the reliability analysis of adhesive bonded stepped lap composite joints, representative for the main laminate in a wind turbine blade subjected to static flapwise bending load...... used to predict failure in the composite and adhesive layers, respectively, and the results are compared with the target reliability level implicitly used in the wind turbine standard IEC 61400-1. The accuracy and efficiency of Asymptotic Sampling is investigated by comparing the results with......Reliability analysis coupled with finite element analysis (FEA) of composite structures is computationally very demanding and requires a large number of simulations to achieve an accurate prediction of the probability of failure with a small standard error. In this paper Asymptotic Sampling, which...

  20. Reliability analysis for distribution networks combined with transformer condition assessment

    Pylvaenaeinen, J.

    2010-07-01

    Most electricity distribution companies have an ICT based network information system, which is used to manage operational and network component related information. Therefore, computer based tools and data are already widely available for network planning, operation and control. However, even in the state of the art systems there is still valuable data, which is can be utilized further to support network asset management. The information exists for example in kWh-meter data management systems, power quality measurement systems, SCADA and distribution management systems. Available data gives good opportunities to develop automatic ICT based asset management functionalities to give more precise information for decision-making process.This thesis concentrates on developing electricity network asset management principles. The asset management framework is described and risk-based asset management approach is presented. The procedure, how risks in electricity distribution networks can be recognised and used as part of maintaining and developing network assets is described. Risk evaluation in this thesis is based on a reliability based network analysis including life cycle cost evaluation.As a basis of reliability based network analysis, detailed information from a electricity distribution network component is needed. This includes the structural information and information from the surrounding environment of a component, which is used to evaluate external failure probability and consequences of a failure of a component. Furthermore, the condition of a component can be used to evaluate the risk of the internal failure of a component. This thesis presents methodology to evaluate both the external and internal conditions of a component.The work concentrates on defining possibilities to utilise available transformer related data as part of the reliability based network analysis. In the analysis, external failure probabilities are based on the structural information of the component including inspection information combined with environmental factors. At a more detailed level the thesis concentrates to develop and evaluate novel methods for a transformer condition assessment. The presented condition assessment methodology for a transformer utilizes available structural and loading and temperature measurement information. The methodology is based on a calculated temperature behaviour and aging of a transformer adapted from the IEC and IEEE loading guides. The usability of artificial neural networks (ANN) for temperature and aging calculations are discussed and evaluated. The results achieved with loading guides and ANN are verified using various measurements including loading, condition and temperature measurements. As a results of the thesis, novel methods to utilise available transformer loading and temperature information for distribution transformer condition monitoring is presented.The pilot and commercially developed software implementations for reliability based network analysis and transformer condition assessment are presented. The usability of the reliability analysis and the condition assessment methodology of transformers is verified using several case studies with real and fictive networks. Commercialised applications for transformer condition assessment and reliability based network analysis are described and the usability of the tools in every day practice is discussed. As a conclusion of the studies, the results indicate that the developed condition assessment approach for transformers can be used for distribution transformer condition monitoring and also as input information for the reliability based network analysis.As a result of the studies, the comprehensive approach to utilise available information for distribution transformer condition assessment as an input of a reliability based network analysis is presented. Based on the approach, it is possible to optimise maintenance and monitoring actions as part of the life cycle cost evaluation. This is elucidated with a simplistic case study, which evaluates cos ts and benefits for distribution transformer condition monitoring system for in-house installed transformers. (orig.)

  1. Fracture mechanics concepts in reliability analysis of monolithic ceramics

    Manderscheid, Jane M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    1987-01-01

    Basic design concepts for high-performance, monolithic ceramic structural components are addressed. The design of brittle ceramics differs from that of ductile metals because of the inability of ceramic materials to redistribute high local stresses caused by inherent flaws. Random flaw size and orientation requires that a probabilistic analysis be performed in order to determine component reliability. The current trend in probabilistic analysis is to combine linear elastic fracture mechanics concepts with the two parameter Weibull distribution function to predict component reliability under multiaxial stress states. Nondestructive evaluation supports this analytical effort by supplying data during verification testing. It can also help to determine statistical parameters which describe the material strength variation, in particular the material threshold strength (the third Weibull parameter), which in the past was often taken as zero for simplicity.

  2. Analysis of Gumbel Model for Software Reliability Using Bayesian Paradigm

    Raj Kumar

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we have illustrated the suitability of Gumbel Model for software reliability data. The model parameters are estimated using likelihood based inferential procedure: classical as well as Bayesian. The quasi Newton-Raphson algorithm is applied to obtain the maximum likelihood estimates and associated probability intervals. The Bayesian estimates of the parameters of Gumbel model are obtained using Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC simulation method in OpenBUGS(established software for Bayesian analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. The R functions are developed to study the statistical properties, model validation and comparison tools of the model and the output analysis of MCMC samples generated from OpenBUGS. Details of applying MCMC to parameter estimation for the Gumbel model are elaborated and a real software reliability data set is considered to illustrate the methods of inference discussed in this paper.

  3. Reliability analysis attempt for point mutations in DNA replication

    Adrian MIHALA

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A reliability analysis attempt is hereby presented for point mutations in Escherichia coli DNA replication without considering the postreplicative correction by the DNA mismatch repair system. Rates for correct and false enzymatic and mechanochemical processes are considered for calculation of probabilities for false primary inclusion of deoxynucleotides in the growing DNA chain and for defective verification of the new formed base pair in this chain by the DNA polymerase complex. Formulae for obtaining correct new synthesized DNA strand are given. The probability of no false insertion in the entire helix of length N in a correct new DNA strand is calculated to 0.63 with the 10-5 and 10-2 figures for the probabilities of defective base inclusion and escape rate and 4.6?106 bp length of the K12 strain E. coli chromosome. Perspectives of reliability analysis for mechanism concerning specificity in biologic processes are discussed.

  4. Reliability analysis (hardware) of a core temperature safety system

    This paper deals with the evaluation of hardware reliability of a computerised safety system for the detection of core outlet temperature disturbances of a sodium cooled fast breeder reactor. The analysis, is carried out by the use of a complete Markov model of the system; it takes into account the different mission phases due to necessity of testing them during their operation time. The study is carried out in parametric form, in order to get a sensitivity analysis of the various influences of the parameters involved. The aim of the work is to demonstrate that it is possible to reach such a reliability figure by using standard computing units: the achievement is done by means of an opportune redundancy voting scheme and testing policy. Evaluations on ''fail to danger/fail to safe'' failure rate of the system units, are also shown. (author)

  5. Reliability Analysis of Car Maintenance Forecast and Performance

    Owhor, Sampson Chisa,; Abdul Alim Ibrahim Gambo; Ojo, Victor Kayode; Dan’azumi Daniel

    2015-01-01

    In reliability analysis of car maintenance forecast and performance, researchers have mostly dealt with problems either without maintenance or with deterministic maintenance when no failure can occur. This can be unrealistic in practical settings. In this work, a statistical model is developed to evaluate the effect of predictive and preventive maintenance schemes on car performance in the presence of system failure where the forecasting objective is to minimize schedule duration. It was s...

  6. Beyond reliability, multi-state failure analysis of satellite subsystems: A statistical approach

    Reliability is widely recognized as a critical design attribute for space systems. In recent articles, we conducted nonparametric analyses and Weibull fits of satellite and satellite subsystems reliability for 1584 Earth-orbiting satellites launched between January 1990 and October 2008. In this paper, we extend our investigation of failures of satellites and satellite subsystems beyond the binary concept of reliability to the analysis of their anomalies and multi-state failures. In reliability analysis, the system or subsystem under study is considered to be either in an operational or failed state; multi-state failure analysis introduces 'degraded states' or partial failures, and thus provides more insights through finer resolution into the degradation behavior of an item and its progression towards complete failure. The database used for the statistical analysis in the present work identifies five states for each satellite subsystem: three degraded states, one fully operational state, and one failed state (complete failure). Because our dataset is right-censored, we calculate the nonparametric probability of transitioning between states for each satellite subsystem with the Kaplan-Meier estimator, and we derive confidence intervals for each probability of transitioning between states. We then conduct parametric Weibull fits of these probabilities using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) approach. After validating the results, we compare the reliability versus multi-state failure analyses of three satellite subsystems: the thruster/fuel; the telemetry, tracking, and control (TTC); and the gyro/sensor/reaction wheel subsystems. The results are particularly revealing of the insights that can be gleaned from multi-state failure analysis and the deficiencies, or blind spots, of the traditional reliability analysis. In addition to the specific results provided here, which should prove particularly useful to the space industry, this work highlights the importance of conducting, beyond the traditional reliability analysis, multi-state failure analysis of any engineering system when seeking to understand its failure behavior.

  7. Inclusion of task dependence in human reliability analysis

    Dependence assessment among human errors in human reliability analysis (HRA) is an important issue, which includes the evaluation of the dependence among human tasks and the effect of the dependence on the final human error probability (HEP). This paper represents a computational model to handle dependence in human reliability analysis. The aim of the study is to automatically provide conclusions on the overall degree of dependence and calculate the conditional human error probability (CHEP) once the judgments of the input factors are given. The dependence influencing factors are first identified by the experts and the priorities of these factors are also taken into consideration. Anchors and qualitative labels are provided as guidance for the HRA analyst's judgment of the input factors. The overall degree of dependence between human failure events is calculated based on the input values and the weights of the input factors. Finally, the CHEP is obtained according to a computing formula derived from the technique for human error rate prediction (THERP) method. The proposed method is able to quantify the subjective judgment from the experts and improve the transparency in the HEP evaluation process. Two examples are illustrated to show the effectiveness and the flexibility of the proposed method. - Highlights: • We propose a computational model to handle dependence in human reliability analysis. • The priorities of the dependence influencing factors are taken into consideration. • The overall dependence degree is determined by input judgments and the weights of factors. • The CHEP is obtained according to a computing formula derived from THERP

  8. Reliability analysis of crack propagation behavior of reactor components

    A reliability analysis was carried out on a circumferential weld in the main coolant loop of a PWR with the aim of estimating the probability of a leak or break occurring in the planned life cycle of the plant. To get a basis for the reliability analysis the following influence factors were more closely examined: initial crack extent, load spectrum including the emergency 'earthquake' situation and crack growth characteristics. For the actual reliability analysis a computer program was developed, which took the individual input data, in accordance with their statistical parameter, into account in a simulation calculation in line with the Monte Carlo Method. The Forman Formula was used to estimate the fatigue crack growth caused by the sequence of load events. The result was, that the fatigue crack growth, even in the case of large initial cracks, was negligibly small. The probability, that, in the case of very deep initial cracks, one-off high quasi-static load, e.g. during an earthquake, could cause a locally limited crack-through, was estimated to be about 5x10-6 in forty years. (orig./HP)

  9. Reliability and Comparability of Psychosis Patients Retrospective Reports of Childhood Abuse

    Fisher, Helen L.; Craig, Thomas K.; FEARON, PAUL; Morgan, Kevin; Dazzan, Paola; Lappin, Julia; Hutchinson, Gerard; Doody, Gillian A.; Jones, Peter B.; McGuffin, Peter; Murray, Robin M; Leff, Julian; Morgan, Craig

    2009-01-01

    An increasing number of studies are demonstrating an association between childhood abuse and psychosis. However, the majority of these rely on retrospective self-reports in adulthood that may be unduly influenced by current psychopathology. We therefore set out to explore the reliability and comparability of first-presentation psychosis patients reports of childhood abuse. Psychosis case subjects were drawn from the Aetiology and Ethnicity of Schizophrenia and Other Psychoses (SOP) epidemio...

  10. INTRODUCING NEW PARAMETERS TO COMPARE THE ACCURACY AND RELIABILITY OF MEAN-SHIFT BASED TRACKING ALGORITHMS

    S.A. Mohammadi

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Mean shift algorithms are among the most functional tracking methods which are accurate and havealmost simple computation. Different versions of this algorithm are developed which are differ in templateupdating and their window sizes. To measure the reliability and accuracy of these methods one shouldnormally rely on visual results or number of iteration. In this paper we introduce two new parameterswhich can be used to compare the algorithms especially when their results are close to each other.

  11. Solid Rocket Booster Large Main and Drogue Parachute Reliability Analysis

    Clifford, Courtenay B.; Hengel, John E.

    2009-01-01

    The parachutes on the Space Transportation System (STS) Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) are the means for decelerating the SRB and allowing it to impact the water at a nominal vertical velocity of 75 feet per second. Each SRB has one pilot, one drogue, and three main parachutes. About four minutes after SRB separation, the SRB nose cap is jettisoned, deploying the pilot parachute. The pilot chute then deploys the drogue parachute. The drogue chute provides initial deceleration and proper SRB orientation prior to frustum separation. At frustum separation, the drogue pulls the frustum from the SRB and allows the main parachutes that are mounted in the frustum to unpack and inflate. These chutes are retrieved, inspected, cleaned, repaired as needed, and returned to the flight inventory and reused. Over the course of the Shuttle Program, several improvements have been introduced to the SRB main parachutes. A major change was the replacement of the small (115 ft. diameter) main parachutes with the larger (136 ft. diameter) main parachutes. Other modifications were made to the main parachutes, main parachute support structure, and SRB frustum to eliminate failure mechanisms, improve damage tolerance, and improve deployment and inflation characteristics. This reliability analysis is limited to the examination of the SRB Large Main Parachute (LMP) and drogue parachute failure history to assess the reliability of these chutes. From the inventory analysis, 68 Large Main Parachutes were used in 651 deployments, and 7 chute failures occurred in the 651 deployments. Logistic regression was used to analyze the LMP failure history, and it showed that reliability growth has occurred over the period of use resulting in a current chute reliability of R = .9983. This result was then used to determine the reliability of the 3 LMPs on the SRB, when all must function. There are 29 drogue parachutes that were used in 244 deployments, and no in-flight failures have occurred. Since there are no observed drogue chute failures, Jeffreys Prior was used to calculate a reliability of R =.998. Based on these results, it is concluded that the LMP and drogue parachutes on the Shuttle SRB are suited to their mission and changes made over their life have improved the reliability of the parachute.

  12. A semi-Markov reliability analysis of alternating systems

    Current nuclear power plants must be highly reliable with respect to safety and economy. Consequently, development of a new safety evaluation methodology is desired for the accurate evaluation of safety and economy. A nuclear power plant consists of many systems. This paper is concerned with the reliability evaluation of alternating systems. An alternating system usually consists of multitrains, and its operation alternates from one train to another. Examples of these are the nuclear service cooling water system, the component cooling water system, and the chemical and volume control system. The alternating systems exhibit strong dynamic time-dependent reliability characteristics because of the alternating operational mode and the technical specification requirements that are particularly difficult to analyze by static fault-tree techniques. The method used in this paper is based on the semi-Markov reliability analysis. The system performance measures evaluated are its contribution to the total risk of the plant (e.g., core damage probability) and to plant unavailability (reactor downtime). It is concluded that the methodology developed in this study can be applied to existing alternating systems for plant-specific evaluation of the various alternatives in technical specifications

  13. Reliability engineering analysis of ATLAS data reprocessing campaigns

    During three years of LHC data taking, the ATLAS collaboration completed three petascale data reprocessing campaigns on the Grid, with up to 2 PB of data being reprocessed every year. In reprocessing on the Grid, failures can occur for a variety of reasons, while Grid heterogeneity makes failures hard to diagnose and repair quickly. As a result, Big Data processing on the Grid must tolerate a continuous stream of failures, errors and faults. While ATLAS fault-tolerance mechanisms improve the reliability of Big Data processing in the Grid, their benefits come at costs and result in delays making the performance prediction difficult. Reliability Engineering provides a framework for fundamental understanding of the Big Data processing on the Grid, which is not a desirable enhancement but a necessary requirement. In ATLAS, cost monitoring and performance prediction became critical for the success of the reprocessing campaigns conducted in preparation for the major physics conferences. In addition, our Reliability Engineering approach supported continuous improvements in data reprocessing throughput during LHC data taking. The throughput doubled in 2011 vs. 2010 reprocessing, then quadrupled in 2012 vs. 2011 reprocessing. We present the Reliability Engineering analysis of ATLAS data reprocessing campaigns providing the foundation needed to scale up the Big Data processing technologies beyond the petascale.

  14. High-Reliable PLC RTOS Development and RPS Structure Analysis

    One of the KNICS objectives is to develop a platform for Nuclear Power Plant(NPP) I and C(Instrumentation and Control) system, especially plant protection system. The developed platform is POSAFE-Q and this work supports the development of POSAFE-Q with the development of high-reliable real-time operating system(RTOS) and programmable logic device(PLD) software. Another KNICS objective is to develop safety I and C systems, such as Reactor Protection System(RPS) and Engineered Safety Feature-Component Control System(ESF-CCS). This work plays an important role in the structure analysis for RPS. Validation and verification(V and V) of the safety critical software is an essential work to make digital plant protection system highly reliable and safe. Generally, the reliability and safety of software based system can be improved by strict quality assurance framework including the software development itself. In other words, through V and V, the reliability and safety of a system can be improved and the development activities like software requirement specification, software design specification, component tests, integration tests, and system tests shall be appropriately documented for V and V.

  15. Maximizing personnel performance in plantwide reliability-centered maintenance analysis

    Techniques have been developed and proven effective that can be used to reduce the staffing requirements for implementation of a full-scale plantwide reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) program. The multiphase projects discussed in this paper integrate RCM into a broad-based preventive maintenance program concept that includes several programmatic functions, such as system reliability modeling, computerized RCM data bases, and quantitative and qualitative cost/benefit analyses. Through the use of computerized data bases, system models, equipment failure tracking, and preventive maintenance program effectiveness evaluations, the RCM programs can create a living reliability-based preventive maintenance program. The completed RCM data can be maintained and updated with current plant design and equipment performance history without large staffs of RCM analysts. The goal of any RCM project is the development of a structures and well-justified preventive maintenance program that ensures the reliability of plant components is maximized to the extent that an appropriate cost/benefit is achieved in return for the maintenance dollars expended. The methods discussed were developed for two full-scale RCM projects that are useful when implementing the program on a plantwide basis. The typical approach to RCM has been to establish a process on one pilot system and then continue the RCM process on selected systems periodically. By implementing an RCM program on a plantwide basis, benefits can be realized from and economy of scale and through the implementation of labor-saving analysis aids

  16. Analysis of emergency diesel generators for improved reliability

    Nuclear generating station emergency diesel generators are among the most critical safeguards systems because of their need to operate as designed in the event of a loss of off-site power and to be operational to permit nuclear unit operation. This paper will detail the need for analysis of diesel engines to ensure reliability, performance, and availability of the diesel generator and nuclear unit. The requirements for a state-of-the-art analysis program will be given, showing the benefits derived from digital data collection and computer aided diagnostics. These benefits include more frequent analysis, improved scheduling of tests and historical comparison and trending of data. Commonwealth Edison operates twenty-four emergency diesel generators at six nuclear generating stations. Case studies of actual malfunctions detected will be used to illustrate analysis methods and the capabilities of their engine analysis program

  17. Test-retest reliability of trunk accelerometric gait analysis

    Henriksen, Marius; Lund, Hans; Moe-Nilssen, R; Bliddal, H; Danneskiold-Samsøe, Bente

    2004-01-01

    -57) underwent the same protocol on 2 consecutive days. The raw acceleration signals from six self-selected walking speeds were transformed into a horizontal-vertical coordinate system to remove unwanted variability caused by gravity. Acceleration root mean square values, cadences, step and stride lengths were......The purpose of this study was to determine the test-retest reliability of a trunk accelerometric gait analysis in healthy subjects. Accelerations were measured during walking using a triaxial accelerometer mounted on the lumbar spine of the subjects. Six men and 14 women (mean age 35.2; range 18...... may have a definite potential in clinical gait analysis....

  18. Damage tolerance reliability analysis of automotive spot-welded joints

    This paper develops a damage tolerance reliability analysis methodology for automotive spot-welded joints under multi-axial and variable amplitude loading history. The total fatigue life of a spot weld is divided into two parts, crack initiation and crack propagation. The multi-axial loading history is obtained from transient response finite element analysis of a vehicle model. A three-dimensional finite element model of a simplified joint with four spot welds is developed for static stress/strain analysis. A probabilistic Miner's rule is combined with a randomized strain-life curve family and the stress/strain analysis result to develop a strain-based probabilistic fatigue crack initiation life prediction for spot welds. Afterwards, the fatigue crack inside the base material sheet is modeled as a surface crack. Then a probabilistic crack growth model is combined with the stress analysis result to develop a probabilistic fatigue crack growth life prediction for spot welds. Both methods are implemented with MSC/NASTRAN and MSC/FATIGUE software, and are useful for reliability assessment of automotive spot-welded joints against fatigue and fracture

  19. Modeling of seismic hazards for dynamic reliability analysis

    This paper investigates the appropriate indices of seismic hazard curves (SHCs) for seismic reliability analysis. In the most seismic reliability analyses of structures, the seismic hazards are defined in the form of the SHCs of peak ground accelerations (PGAs). Usually PGAs play a significant role in characterizing ground motions. However, PGA is not always a suitable index of seismic motions. When random vibration theory developed in the frequency domain is employed to obtain statistics of responses, it is more convenient for the implementation of dynamic reliability analysis (DRA) to utilize an index which can be determined in the frequency domain. In this paper, we summarize relationships among the indices which characterize ground motions. The relationships between the indices and the magnitude M are arranged as well. In this consideration, duration time plays an important role in relating two distinct class, i.e. energy class and power class. Fourier and energy spectra are involved in the energy class, and power and response spectra and PGAs are involved in the power class. These relationships are also investigated by using ground motion records. Through these investigations, we have shown the efficiency of employing the total energy as an index of SHCs, which can be determined in the time and frequency domains and has less variance than the other indices. In addition, we have proposed the procedure of DRA based on total energy. (author)

  20. An improved radial basis function network for structural reliability analysis

    Approximation methods such as response surface method and artificial neural network (ANN) method are widely used to alleviate the computation costs in structural reliability analysis. However most of the ANN methods proposed in the literature suffer various drawbacks such as poor choice of parameter setting, poor generalization and local minimum. In this study, a support vector machine-based radial basis function (RBF) network method is proposed, in which the improved RBF model is used to approximate the limit state function and then is connected to a reliability method to estimate failure probability. Since the learning algorithm of RBF network is replaced by the support vector algorithm, the advantage of the latter, such as good generalization ability and global optimization are propagated to the former, thus the inherent drawback of RBF network can be defeated. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the applicability of the improved RBF network method in structural reliability analysis, as well as to illustrate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed method

  1. Review of the treat upgrade reactor scram system reliability analysis

    In order to resolve some key LMFBR safety issues, ANL personnel are modifying the TREAT reactor to handle much larger experiments. As a result of these modifications, the upgraded Treat reactor will not always operate in a self-limited mode. During certain experiments in the upgraded TREAT reactor, it is possible that the fuel could be damaged by overheating if, once the computer systems fail, the reactor scram system (RSS) fails on demand. To help ensure that the upgraded TREAT reactor is shut down when required, ANL personnel have designed a triply redundant RSS for the facility. The RSS is designed to meet three reliability goals: (1) a loss of capability failure probability of 10-9/demand (independent failures only); (2) an inadvertent shutdown probability of 10-3/experiment; and (3) protection agaist any known potential common cause failures. According to ANL's reliability analysis of the RSS, this system substantially meets these goals

  2. Reliability analysis of neutron flux monitoring system for PFBR

    The Neutron Flux Monitoring System (NFMS) measures reactor power, rate of change of power and reactivity changes in the core in all states of operation and shutdown. The system consists of instrument channels that are designed and built to have high reliability. All channels are required to have a Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) of 150000 hours minimum. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and failure rate estimation of NFMS channels has been carried out. FMEA is carried out in compliance with MIL-STD-338B. Reliability estimation of the channels is done according to MIL-HDBK-217FN2. Paper discusses the methodology followed for FMEA and failure rate estimation of two safety channels and results. (author)

  3. Reliability Analysis of Penetration Systems Using Nondeterministic Methods

    Device penetration into media such as metal and soil is an application of some engineering interest. Often, these devices contain internal components and it is of paramount importance that all significant components survive the severe environment that accompanies the penetration event. In addition, the system must be robust to perturbations in its operating environment, some of which exhibit behavior which can only be quantified to within some level of uncertainty. In the analysis discussed herein, methods to address the reliability of internal components for a specific application system are discussed. The shock response spectrum (SRS) is utilized in conjunction with the Advanced Mean Value (AMV) and Response Surface methods to make probabilistic statements regarding the predicted reliability of internal components. Monte Carlo simulation methods are also explored

  4. Human reliability analysis for accident sequences in NPP

    The purpose of this paper is to perform a human performance analysis in accident conditions for the operating NPP. This analysis is realized using Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) methods. HRA methods have necessary tools to analyze the human actions, to estimate the human error probabilities and to identify the major factors which could have a negative influence on the mitigating of the consequences of the abnormal events in NPP. The analyzed events are from CANDU 600 NPP. In order to achieve the analysis of these events the THEP and SPAR-H methods were used. After analyzing the results the actuated equipment, the negative influence factors on the human performance and the dependence levels between the human actions and between the human actions and diagnosis were established. In addition, some recommendations were formulated which could influence positive the human performance on the mitigating of the consequences of the accident sequences in NPP. (authors)

  5. Limits of reliability of optical properties of commercial glass in Mexico, a comparative analysis with experimental results; Limites de confiabilidad de propiedades opticas de vidrios comerciales en mexico, analisis comparativo con resultados experimentales

    Barrios Rodriguez, Pilar; Dorantes Rodriguez, Ruben J. [Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana Azcapotzalco, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)

    2000-07-01

    The heat transfer through the buildings has been increased by the intensive use of glass in the building's covering; this situation has demanded more electrical energy for compensate the heat's gain or loss. Energy use in buildings is responsible for some 50% of CO{sub 2} emissions in many countries, so it's necessary a building's thermal design for a rational use of energy. The glass is an important material in the building's encircling, so it's essential to count on precise values of the glass's properties for design building's covering. Experimental evaluation on optical properties in some building's glasses to compare the experimental values with manufacturer's reported values inside tolerance limits. [Spanish] La ganancia de calor solar al interior de las edificaciones se ha visto incrementada por la tendencia actual en el uso intensivo y extensivo del vidrio en la envolvente, lo que ha aumentado la necesidad del uso de energia electrica para compensar con climatizacion artificial las ganancias y/o perdidas termicas en los espacios interiores de las edificaciones. El gasto energetico en edificios es responsable de cerca del 50% de emision de CO{sub 2} en varios paises, por lo que es necesario un diseno termico de la envolvente que contempla un uso racional de la energia. Por la importancia termica que el vidrio tiene en la envolvente de las edificaciones y la necesidad de contar con el valor de las propiedades lo mas preciso posible para su diseno, se planteo evaluar en forma experimental el comportamiento termico de algunos vidrios que tuviesen uso tanto real como potencial en las edificaciones de nuestro pais y comparar los valores obtenidos con los valores reportados por los fabricantes dentro de limites de tolerancia o confiabilidad.

  6. Improvement of human reliability analysis method for PRA

    It is required to refine human reliability analysis (HRA) method by, for example, incorporating consideration for the cognitive process of operator into the evaluation of diagnosis errors and decision-making errors, as a part of the development and improvement of methods used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs). JNES has been developed a HRA method based on ATHENA which is suitable to handle the structured relationship among diagnosis errors, decision-making errors and operator cognition process. This report summarizes outcomes obtained from the improvement of HRA method, in which enhancement to evaluate how the plant degraded condition affects operator cognitive process and to evaluate human error probabilities (HEPs) which correspond to the contents of operator tasks is made. In addition, this report describes the results of case studies on the representative accident sequences to investigate the applicability of HRA method developed. HEPs of the same accident sequences are also estimated using THERP method, which is most popularly used HRA method, and comparisons of the results obtained using these two methods are made to depict the differences of these methods and issues to be solved. Important conclusions obtained are as follows: (1) Improvement of HRA method using operator cognitive action model. Clarification of factors to be considered in the evaluation of human errors, incorporation of degraded plant safety condition into HRA and investigation of HEPs which are affected by the contents of operator tasks were made to improve the HRA method which can integrate operator cognitive action model into ATHENA method. In addition, the detail of procedures of the improved method was delineated in the form of flowchart. (2) Case studies and comparison with the results evaluated by THERP method. Four operator actions modeled in the PRAs of representative BWR5 and 4-loop PWR plants were selected and evaluated as case studies. These cases were also evaluated using THERP method to compare the results with the improved method. In general, HEPs evaluated by the improved method are greater than HEPs evaluated by THERP method. (3) Characteristics of the improved HRA method. As many reference tables which can be applied for various cases are prepared in the improved HRA method, the prospect of realization of reproducibility, i.e. similar results are obtained independently to analysis, and traceability, i.e. process to the final results is clear and is also to be shared among analysts, can be said to be achieved. (author)

  7. Reliability and risk analysis data base development: an historical perspective

    Collection of empirical data and data base development for use in the prediction of the probability of future events has a long history. Dating back at least to the 17th century, safe passage events and mortality events were collected and analyzed to uncover prospective underlying classes and associated class attributes. Tabulations of these developed classes and associated attributes formed the underwriting basis for the fledgling insurance industry. Much earlier, master masons and architects used design rules of thumb to capture the experience of the ages and thereby produce structures of incredible longevity and reliability (Antona, E., Fragola, J. and Galvagni, R. Risk based decision analysis in design. Fourth SRA Europe Conference Proceedings, Rome, Italy, 18-20 October 1993). These rules served so well in producing robust designs that it was not until almost the 19th century that the analysis (Charlton, T.M., A History Of Theory Of Structures In The 19th Century, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1982) of masonry voussoir arches, begun by Galileo some two centuries earlier (Galilei, G. Discorsi e dimostrazioni mathematiche intorno a due nuove science, (Discourses and mathematical demonstrations concerning two new sciences, Leiden, The Netherlands, 1638), was placed on a sound scientific basis. Still, with the introduction of new materials (such as wrought iron and steel) and the lack of theoretical knowledge and computational facilities, approximate methods of structural design abounded well into the second half of the 20th century. To this day structural designers account for material variations and gaps in theoretical knowledge by employing factors of safety (Benvenuto, E., An Introduction to the History of Structural Mechanics, Part II: Vaulted Structures and Elastic Systems, Springer-Verlag, NY, 1991) or codes of practice (ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, ASME, New York) originally developed in the 19th century (Antona, E., Fragola, J. and Galvagni, R. Risk based decision analysis in design. Fourth SRA Europe Conference Proceedings, Rome, Italy, 18-20 October 1993). These factors, although they continue to be heuristically based, attempt to account for uncertainties in the design environment (e.g., the load spectra) and residual materials defects (Fragola, J.R. et al., Investigation of the risk implications of space shuttle solid rocket booster chamber pressure excursions. SAIC Document No. SAIC/NY 95-01-10, New York, NY). Although the approaches may appear different, at least at first glance, the intention in both the insurance and design arenas was to establish an 'infrastructure of confidence' to enable rational decision making for future endeavours. Maturity in the design process of conventional structures such as bridges, buildings, boilers, and highways has led to the loss of recognition of the role that robustness plays in these designs to qualify them against their normal failure environment. So routinely do we expect these designs to survive that we tend to think of the individual failures (which do occur on occasion) as isolated 'freak' accidents. Attempts to uncover potential underlying classes and document associated attributes are rare, and even when they are undertaken 'human error' or 'one-of-a-kind accidents' is often cited as the major cause which somehow seems to absolve the analyst from the responsibility of further data collection (Levy, M. and Salvadori, M., Why Buildings Fall Down, W.W. Norton and Co., New York, NY, 1992; Pecht, M., Nash, F.R. and Long, J.H., Understanding and solving the real reliability assurance problems. 1995 Proceedings of Annual RAMS Symposium, IEEE, New York, NY, 1995). The confusion has proliferated to the point where legitimate calls for scepticism regarding the scant data resources available (Evans, R.A., Bayes paradox. IEEE Trans. Reliab., R-31 (1982) 321) have given way to cries that some data sources be abandoned altogether (Cushing, M. et al., Comparison of electronics-reliability assessment approaches. Trans. Reliab., 42 (1993) 542-546 Wat son, G.F., MIL Reliability: a new approach. IEEE Spectrum, 29 (1992) 46-49). Authors who have suggested that the concept of generic data collection be abolished in favor of a physics-of-failure approach (Watson, G.F., MIL Reliability: a new approach. IEEE Spectrum, 29 (1992) 46-49) now seem to be suggesting that the concept of 'failure rate' be banished altogether and with it the concept of reliability prediction (Pecht., M. and Nash, F., Predicting the reliability of electronic equipment. Proc. IEEE, 82 (1994) 992-1004). There can be no doubt that abuses of generic data exist and that the physics-of-failure approach has merit, especially in design development, however, does the situation really justify the abandonment of the collection, analysis, and classification of empirical failure data and the elimination of reliability or risk prediction? If not, can the concepts of 'failure rate' and 'prediction' be redefined so as to allow for meaningful support to be provided to logical decision making? This paper reviews both the logical and historical context within which reliability and risk data bases have been developed so as to generate an understanding of the motivations for and the assumptions underlying their development. Further, an attempt is made to clarify what appears to be fundamental confusion in the field of reliability and risk analysis. With these clarifications in hand, a restructuring of the conceptual basis for reliability data base development and reliability predictions is suggested, and some hopeful recent developments are reported upon

  8. Validity and reliability of free software for bidimensional gait analysis

    Quixadá, Ana Paula; Peña, Norberto; Miranda, José Garcia Vivas; Sá, Katia Nunes

    2016-01-01

    Despite the evaluation systems of human movement that have been advancing in recent decades, their use are not feasible for clinical practice because it has a high cost and scarcity of trained operators to interpret their results. An ideal videogrammetry system should be easy to use, low cost, with minimal equipment, and fast realization. The CvMob is a free tool for dynamic evaluation of human movements that express measurements in figures, tables, and graphics. This paper aims to determine if CvMob is a reliable tool for the evaluation of two dimensional human gait. This is a validity and reliability study. The sample was composed of 56 healthy individuals who walked on a 9-meterlong walkway and were simultaneously filmed by CvMob and Vicon system cameras. Linear trajectories and angular measurements were compared to validate the CvMob system, and inter and intrarater findings of the same measurements were used to determine reliability. A strong correlation (rs mean = 0.988) of the linear trajectories betwe...

  9. Reliability and risk analysis using artificial neural networks

    Robinson, D.G. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-12-31

    This paper discusses preliminary research at Sandia National Laboratories into the application of artificial neural networks for reliability and risk analysis. The goal of this effort is to develop a reliability based methodology that captures the complex relationship between uncertainty in material properties and manufacturing processes and the resulting uncertainty in life prediction estimates. The inputs to the neural network model are probability density functions describing system characteristics and the output is a statistical description of system performance. The most recent application of this methodology involves the comparison of various low-residue, lead-free soldering processes with the desire to minimize the associated waste streams with no reduction in product reliability. Model inputs include statistical descriptions of various material properties such as the coefficients of thermal expansion of solder and substrate. Consideration is also given to stochastic variation in the operational environment to which the electronic components might be exposed. Model output includes a probabilistic characterization of the fatigue life of the surface mounted component.

  10. A Research Roadmap for Computation-Based Human Reliability Analysis

    The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) is sponsoring research through the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program to extend the life of the currently operating fleet of commercial nuclear power plants. The Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) research pathway within LWRS looks at ways to maintain and improve the safety margins of these plants. The RISMC pathway includes significant developments in the area of thermalhydraulics code modeling and the development of tools to facilitate dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). PRA is primarily concerned with the risk of hardware systems at the plant; yet, hardware reliability is often secondary in overall risk significance to human errors that can trigger or compound undesirable events at the plant. This report highlights ongoing efforts to develop a computation-based approach to human reliability analysis (HRA). This computation-based approach differs from existing static and dynamic HRA approaches in that it: (i) interfaces with a dynamic computation engine that includes a full scope plant model, and (ii) interfaces with a PRA software toolset. The computation-based HRA approach presented in this report is called the Human Unimodels for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) and incorporates in a hybrid fashion elements of existing HRA methods to interface with new computational tools developed under the RISMC pathway. The goal of this research effort is to model human performance more accurately than existing approaches, thereby minimizing modeling uncertainty found in current plant risk models.

  11. Limitations in simulator time-based human reliability analysis methods

    Developments in human reliability analysis (HRA) methods have evolved slowly. Current methods are little changed from those of almost a decade ago, particularly in the use of time-reliability relationships. While these methods were suitable as an interim step, the time (and the need) has come to specify the next evolution of HRA methods. As with any performance-oriented data source, power plant simulator data have no direct connection to HRA models. Errors reported in data are normal deficiencies observed in human performance; failures are events modeled in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs). Not all errors cause failures; not all failures are caused by errors. Second, the times at which actions are taken provide no measure of the likelihood of failures to act correctly within an accident scenario. Inferences can be made about human reliability, but they must be made with great care. Specific limitations are discussed. Simulator performance data are useful in providing qualitative evidence of the variety of error types and their potential influences on operating systems. More work is required to combine recent developments in the psychology of error with the qualitative data collected at stimulators. Until data become openly available, however, such an advance will not be practical

  12. A Research Roadmap for Computation-Based Human Reliability Analysis

    Boring, Ronald [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Joe, Jeffrey [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Smith, Curtis [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Groth, Katrina [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-08-01

    The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) is sponsoring research through the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program to extend the life of the currently operating fleet of commercial nuclear power plants. The Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) research pathway within LWRS looks at ways to maintain and improve the safety margins of these plants. The RISMC pathway includes significant developments in the area of thermalhydraulics code modeling and the development of tools to facilitate dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). PRA is primarily concerned with the risk of hardware systems at the plant; yet, hardware reliability is often secondary in overall risk significance to human errors that can trigger or compound undesirable events at the plant. This report highlights ongoing efforts to develop a computation-based approach to human reliability analysis (HRA). This computation-based approach differs from existing static and dynamic HRA approaches in that it: (i) interfaces with a dynamic computation engine that includes a full scope plant model, and (ii) interfaces with a PRA software toolset. The computation-based HRA approach presented in this report is called the Human Unimodels for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) and incorporates in a hybrid fashion elements of existing HRA methods to interface with new computational tools developed under the RISMC pathway. The goal of this research effort is to model human performance more accurately than existing approaches, thereby minimizing modeling uncertainty found in current plant risk models.

  13. Fifty Years of THERP and Human Reliability Analysis

    Ronald L. Boring

    2012-06-01

    In 1962 at a Human Factors Society symposium, Alan Swain presented a paper introducing a Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP). This was followed in 1963 by a Sandia Laboratories monograph outlining basic human error quantification using THERP and, in 1964, by a special journal edition of Human Factors on quantification of human performance. Throughout the 1960s, Swain and his colleagues focused on collecting human performance data for the Sandia Human Error Rate Bank (SHERB), primarily in connection with supporting the reliability of nuclear weapons assembly in the US. In 1969, Swain met with Jens Rasmussen of Risø National Laboratory and discussed the applicability of THERP to nuclear power applications. By 1975, in WASH-1400, Swain had articulated the use of THERP for nuclear power applications, and the approach was finalized in the watershed publication of the NUREG/CR-1278 in 1983. THERP is now 50 years old, and remains the most well known and most widely used HRA method. In this paper, the author discusses the history of THERP, based on published reports and personal communication and interviews with Swain. The author also outlines the significance of THERP. The foundations of human reliability analysis are found in THERP: human failure events, task analysis, performance shaping factors, human error probabilities, dependence, event trees, recovery, and pre- and post-initiating events were all introduced in THERP. While THERP is not without its detractors, and it is showing signs of its age in the face of newer technological applications, the longevity of THERP is a testament of its tremendous significance. THERP started the field of human reliability analysis. This paper concludes with a discussion of THERP in the context of newer methods, which can be seen as extensions of or departures from Swain’s pioneering work.

  14. Failure and Reliability Analysis for the Master Pump Shutdown System

    The Master Pump Shutdown System (MPSS) will be installed in the 200 Areas of the Hanford Site to monitor and control the transfer of liquid waste between tank farms and between the 200 West and 200 East areas through the Cross-Site Transfer Line. The Safety Function provided by the MPSS is to shutdown any waste transfer process within or between tank farms if a waste leak should occur along the selected transfer route. The MPSS, which provides this Safety Class Function, is composed of Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs), interconnecting wires, relays, Human to Machine Interfaces (HMI), and software. These components are defined as providing a Safety Class Function and will be designated in this report as MPSS/PLC. Input signals to the MPSS/PLC are provided by leak detection systems from each of the tank farm leak detector locations along the waste transfer route. The combination of the MPSS/PLC, leak detection system, and transfer pump controller system will be referred to as MPSS/SYS. The components addressed in this analysis are associated with the MPSS/SYS. The purpose of this failure and reliability analysis is to address the following design issues of the Project Development Specification (PDS) for the MPSS/SYS (HNF 2000a): (1) Single Component Failure Criterion, (2) System Status Upon Loss of Electrical Power, (3) Physical Separation of Safety Class cables, (4) Physical Isolation of Safety Class Wiring from General Service Wiring, and (5) Meeting the MPSS/PLC Option 1b (RPP 1999) Reliability estimate. The failure and reliability analysis examined the system on a component level basis and identified any hardware or software elements that could fail and/or prevent the system from performing its intended safety function

  15. Failure and Reliability Analysis for the Master Pump Shutdown System

    BEVINS, R.R.

    2000-09-05

    The Master Pump Shutdown System (MPSS) will be installed in the 200 Areas of the Hanford Site to monitor and control the transfer of liquid waste between tank farms and between the 200 West and 200 East areas through the Cross-Site Transfer Line. The Safety Function provided by the MPSS is to shutdown any waste transfer process within or between tank farms if a waste leak should occur along the selected transfer route. The MPSS, which provides this Safety Class Function, is composed of Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs), interconnecting wires, relays, Human to Machine Interfaces (HMI), and software. These components are defined as providing a Safety Class Function and will be designated in this report as MPSS/PLC. Input signals to the MPSS/PLC are provided by leak detection systems from each of the tank farm leak detector locations along the waste transfer route. The combination of the MPSS/PLC, leak detection system, and transfer pump controller system will be referred to as MPSS/SYS. The components addressed in this analysis are associated with the MPSS/SYS. The purpose of this failure and reliability analysis is to address the following design issues of the Project Development Specification (PDS) for the MPSS/SYS (HNF 2000a): (1) Single Component Failure Criterion, (2) System Status Upon Loss of Electrical Power, (3) Physical Separation of Safety Class cables, (4) Physical Isolation of Safety Class Wiring from General Service Wiring, and (5) Meeting the MPSS/PLC Option 1b (RPP 1999) Reliability estimate. The failure and reliability analysis examined the system on a component level basis and identified any hardware or software elements that could fail and/or prevent the system from performing its intended safety function.

  16. Passive system reliability analysis using the APSRA methodology

    In this paper, we present a methodology known as APSRA (Assessment of Passive System ReliAbility) for evaluation of reliability of passive systems. The methodology has been applied to the boiling natural circulation system in the Main Heat Transport System of the Indian AHWR concept. In the APSRA methodology, the passive system reliability is evaluated from the evaluation of the failure probability of the system to carryout the desired function. The methodology first determines the operational characteristics of the system and the failure conditions by assigning a predetermined failure criteria. The failure surface is predicted using a best estimate code considering deviations of the operating parameters from their nominal states, which affect the natural circulation performance. Since applicability of the best estimate codes to passive systems are neither proven nor understood enough, APSRA relies more on experimental data for various aspects of natural circulation such as steady-state natural circulation, flow instabilities, CHF under oscillatory condition, etc. APSRA proposes to compare the code predictions with the test data to generate the uncertainties on the failure parameter prediction, which is later considered in the code for accurate prediction of failure surface of the system. Once the failure surface of the system is predicted, the cause of failure is examined through root diagnosis, which occurs mainly due to failure of mechanical components. The failure probability of these components are evaluated through a classical PSA treatment using the generic data. Reliability of the natural circulation system is evaluated from the probability of availability of the components for the success of natural circulation in the system

  17. IDHEAS – A NEW APPROACH FOR HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS

    G. W. Parry; J.A Forester; V.N. Dang; S. M. L. Hendrickson; M. Presley; E. Lois; J. Xing

    2013-09-01

    This paper describes a method, IDHEAS (Integrated Decision-Tree Human Event Analysis System) that has been developed jointly by the US NRC and EPRI as an improved approach to Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) that is based on an understanding of the cognitive mechanisms and performance influencing factors (PIFs) that affect operator responses. The paper describes the various elements of the method, namely the performance of a detailed cognitive task analysis that is documented in a crew response tree (CRT), and the development of the associated time-line to identify the critical tasks, i.e. those whose failure results in a human failure event (HFE), and an approach to quantification that is based on explanations of why the HFE might occur.

  18. Human Performance Modeling for Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis

    Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Laboratory; Joe, Jeffrey Clark [Idaho National Laboratory; Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Laboratory

    2015-08-01

    Part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Light Water Reac- tor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Charac- terization (RISMC) Pathway develops approaches to estimating and managing safety margins. RISMC simulations pair deterministic plant physics models with probabilistic risk models. As human interactions are an essential element of plant risk, it is necessary to integrate human actions into the RISMC risk framework. In this paper, we review simulation based and non simulation based human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. This paper summarizes the founda- tional information needed to develop a feasible approach to modeling human in- teractions in RISMC simulations.

  19. Reliability analysis of selected systems of nuclear power unit

    The reliability analysis is discussed of selected facilities of the 440 MW nuclear power unit using the failure tree method. The first part of the paper deals with the primary circuit and analyses the possibility of a dangerous failure arising of the system of accident alarm of the first order of the WWER 440 nuclear reactor during the event of the ''outage of four and more circulating pumps''. The second part of the paper is related to the secondary circuit. It studies the causes and probabilities of the failures of functions of condensate flow pumping and control with regard to the event the ''turbogenerator failure''. (author)

  20. Reliability Analysis of a Mono-Tower Platform

    Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Enevoldsen, I.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Brincker, Rune

    In this paper a reliability analysis of a Mono-tower platform is presented. The failure modes, considered, are yelding in the tube cross-sections, and fatigue failure in the butt welds. The fatigue failure mode is investigated with a fatigue model, where the fatigue strength is expressed through SN...... fatigue limit state is a significant failure mode for the Mono.tower platform. Further, it is shown for the fatigue failure mode the the largest contributions to the overall uncertainty are due to the damping ratio, the inertia coefficient, the stress concentration factor, the model uncertainties and the...

  1. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF CELEBRITY AND NON-CELEBRITY ADVERTISEMENT

    Ammar Asad; Muhammad Naseem Hayat; Shafaqat Mehmood

    2013-01-01

    This study is undertaken to make a comparative analysis of celebrity advertisement and non-celebrity advertisement with respect to attitude toward advertisement, attitude toward brand, purchase intentions, and advertising attributes. For this purpose, a simple random sample of 200 students studying four different disciplines was taken from the Private University in Lahore. For econometric proof, reliability analysis, descriptive analysis, and independent sample T-test was used to interpret th...

  2. Bayesian networks inference algorithm to implement Dempster Shafer theory in reliability analysis

    Simon, Christophe; Weber, Philippe; Evsukoff, Alexandre

    2008-01-01

    This paper deals with the use of Bayesian networks to compute system reliability. The reliability analysis problem is described and the usual methods for quantitative reliability analysis are presented within a case study. Some drawbacks that justify the use of Bayesian networks are identified. The basic concepts of the Bayesian networks application to reliability analysis are introduced and a model to compute the reliability for the case study is presented. Dempster Shafer theory to treat ep...

  3. SARA - SURE/ASSIST RELIABILITY ANALYSIS WORKSTATION (UNIX VERSION)

    Butler, R. W.

    1994-01-01

    SARA, the SURE/ASSIST Reliability Analysis Workstation, is a bundle of programs used to solve reliability problems. The mathematical approach chosen to solve a reliability problem may vary with the size and nature of the problem. The Systems Validation Methods group at NASA Langley Research Center has created a set of four software packages that form the basis for a reliability analysis workstation, including three for use in analyzing reconfigurable, fault-tolerant systems and one for analyzing non-reconfigurable systems. The SARA bundle includes the three for reconfigurable, fault-tolerant systems: SURE reliability analysis program (COSMIC program LAR-13789, LAR-14921); the ASSIST specification interface program (LAR-14193, LAR-14923), and PAWS/STEM reliability analysis programs (LAR-14165, LAR-14920). As indicated by the program numbers in parentheses, each of these three packages is also available separately in two machine versions. The fourth package, which is only available separately, is FTC, the Fault Tree Compiler (LAR-14586, LAR-14922). FTC is used to calculate the top-event probability for a fault tree which describes a non-reconfigurable system. PAWS/STEM and SURE are analysis programs which utilize different solution methods, but have a common input language, the SURE language. ASSIST is a preprocessor that generates SURE language from a more abstract definition. ASSIST, SURE, and PAWS/STEM are described briefly in the following paragraphs. For additional details about the individual packages, including pricing, please refer to their respective abstracts. ASSIST, the Abstract Semi-Markov Specification Interface to the SURE Tool program, allows a reliability engineer to describe the failure behavior of a fault-tolerant computer system in an abstract, high-level language. The ASSIST program then automatically generates a corresponding semi-Markov model. A one-page ASSIST-language description may result in a semi-Markov model with thousands of states and transitions. The ASSIST program also includes model-reduction techniques to facilitate efficient modeling of large systems. The semi-Markov model generated by ASSIST is in the format needed for input to SURE and PAWS/STEM. The Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator, SURE, is an analysis tool for reconfigurable, fault-tolerant systems. SURE provides an efficient means for calculating accurate upper and lower bounds for the death state probabilities for a large class of semi-Markov models, not just those which can be reduced to critical-pair architectures. The calculated bounds are close enough (usually within 5 percent of each other) for use in reliability studies of ultra-reliable computer systems. The SURE bounding theorems have algebraic solutions and are consequently computationally efficient even for large and complex systems. SURE can optionally regard a specified parameter as a variable over a range of values, enabling an automatic sensitivity analysis. SURE output is tabular. The PAWS/STEM package includes two programs for the creation and evaluation of pure Markov models describing the behavior of fault-tolerant reconfigurable computer systems: the Pade Approximation with Scaling (PAWS) and Scaled Taylor Exponential Matrix (STEM) programs. PAWS and STEM produce exact solutions for the probability of system failure and provide a conservative estimate of the number of significant digits in the solution. Markov models of fault-tolerant architectures inevitably lead to numerically stiff differential equations. Both PAWS and STEM have the capability to solve numerically stiff models. These complementary programs use separate methods to determine the matrix exponential in the solution of the model's system of differential equations. In general, PAWS is better suited to evaluate small and dense models. STEM operates at lower precision, but works faster than PAWS for larger models. The programs that comprise the SARA package were originally developed for use on DEC VAX series computers running VMS and were later ported for use on Sun series computers running SunOS. They are written in C-language, Pascal, and FORTRAN 77. An ANSI compliant C compiler is required in order to compile the C portion of the Sun version source code. The Pascal and FORTRAN code can be compiled on Sun computers using Sun Pascal and Sun Fortran. For the VMS version, VAX C, VAX PASCAL, and VAX FORTRAN can be used to recompile the source code. The standard distribution medium for the VMS version of SARA (COS-10041) is a 9-track 1600 BPI magnetic tape in VMSINSTAL format. It is also available on a TK50 tape cartridge in VMSINSTAL format. Executables are included. The standard distribution medium for the Sun version of SARA (COS-10039) is a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge in UNIX tar format. Both Sun3 and Sun4 executables are included. Electronic copies of the ASSIST user's manual in TeX and PostScript formats are provided on the distribution medium. DEC, VAX, VMS, and TK50 are registered trademarks of Digital Equipment Corporation. Sun, Sun3, Sun4, and SunOS are trademarks of Sun Microsystems, Inc. TeX is a trademark of the American Mathematical Society. PostScript is a registered trademark of Adobe Systems Incorporated.

  4. Tailoring a Human Reliability Analysis to Your Industry Needs

    DeMott, D. L.

    2016-01-01

    Companies at risk of accidents caused by human error that result in catastrophic consequences include: airline industry mishaps, medical malpractice, medication mistakes, aerospace failures, major oil spills, transportation mishaps, power production failures and manufacturing facility incidents. Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) is used to analyze the inherent risk of human behavior or actions introducing errors into the operation of a system or process. These assessments can be used to identify where errors are most likely to arise and the potential risks involved if they do occur. Using the basic concepts of HRA, an evolving group of methodologies are used to meet various industry needs. Determining which methodology or combination of techniques will provide a quality human reliability assessment is a key element to developing effective strategies for understanding and dealing with risks caused by human errors. There are a number of concerns and difficulties in "tailoring" a Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) for different industries. Although a variety of HRA methodologies are available to analyze human error events, determining the most appropriate tools to provide the most useful results can depend on industry specific cultures and requirements. Methodology selection may be based on a variety of factors that include: 1) how people act and react in different industries, 2) expectations based on industry standards, 3) factors that influence how the human errors could occur such as tasks, tools, environment, workplace, support, training and procedure, 4) type and availability of data, 5) how the industry views risk & reliability, and 6) types of emergencies, contingencies and routine tasks. Other considerations for methodology selection should be based on what information is needed from the assessment. If the principal concern is determination of the primary risk factors contributing to the potential human error, a more detailed analysis method may be employed versus a requirement to provide a numerical value as part of a probabilistic risk assessment. Industries involved with humans operating large equipment or transport systems (ex. railroads or airlines) would have more need to address the man machine interface than medical workers administering medications. Human error occurs in every industry; in most cases the consequences are relatively benign and occasionally beneficial. In cases where the results can have disastrous consequences, the use of Human Reliability techniques to identify and classify the risk of human errors allows a company more opportunities to mitigate or eliminate these types of risks and prevent costly tragedies.

  5. Inclusion of fatigue effects in human reliability analysis

    The effect of fatigue on human performance has been observed to be an important factor in many industrial accidents. However, defining and measuring fatigue is not easily accomplished. This creates difficulties in including fatigue effects in probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of complex engineering systems that seek to include human reliability analysis (HRA). Thus the objectives of this paper are to discuss (1) the importance of the effects of fatigue on performance, (2) the difficulties associated with defining and measuring fatigue, (3) the current status of inclusion of fatigue in HRA methods, and (4) the future directions and challenges for the inclusion of fatigue, specifically sleep deprivation, in HRA. - Highlights: →We highlight the need for fatigue and sleep deprivation effects on performance to be included in human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. Current methods do not explicitly include sleep deprivation effects. → We discuss the difficulties in defining and measuring fatigue. → We review sleep deprivation research, and discuss the limitations and future needs of the current HRA methods.

  6. Inclusion of fatigue effects in human reliability analysis

    Griffith, Candice D. [Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN (United States); Mahadevan, Sankaran, E-mail: sankaran.mahadevan@vanderbilt.edu [Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN (United States)

    2011-11-15

    The effect of fatigue on human performance has been observed to be an important factor in many industrial accidents. However, defining and measuring fatigue is not easily accomplished. This creates difficulties in including fatigue effects in probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of complex engineering systems that seek to include human reliability analysis (HRA). Thus the objectives of this paper are to discuss (1) the importance of the effects of fatigue on performance, (2) the difficulties associated with defining and measuring fatigue, (3) the current status of inclusion of fatigue in HRA methods, and (4) the future directions and challenges for the inclusion of fatigue, specifically sleep deprivation, in HRA. - Highlights: >We highlight the need for fatigue and sleep deprivation effects on performance to be included in human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. Current methods do not explicitly include sleep deprivation effects. > We discuss the difficulties in defining and measuring fatigue. > We review sleep deprivation research, and discuss the limitations and future needs of the current HRA methods.

  7. Boiler reliability

    Reliability is an important factor when investors evaluate economics for power plant and boiler proposals. Consequently, more advanced methods are needed for analyzing and reporting boiler reliability. Availability analysis methods need proper initial data in order to attain the objectives of analysis. Possible data sources are international databases and plant operation feedback data but for CFB boilers general databases do not exist and plant's records on operating experience are in many cases incomplete. FWE Oy has developed an internal system to collect, report and analyze the reliability of CFB boilers. The retrieved data is further analyzed for marketing and sales purposes. The idea is to be able to determine the reliability of a new plant on the basis of operating disturbances experienced in existing power plants. The data will also be used in product development and in preparing comparative and follow-up reports for the power plants participating in the reliability monitoring. (orig.)

  8. Reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode load using Markov Chain Model

    Nikabdullah, N. [Department of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia and Institute of Space Science (ANGKASA), Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Malaysia); Singh, S. S. K.; Alebrahim, R.; Azizi, M. A. [Department of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Malaysia); K, Elwaleed A. [Institute of Space Science (ANGKASA), Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Malaysia); Noorani, M. S. M. [School of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Malaysia)

    2014-06-19

    The aim of this paper is to present the reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode loading by using a simple two state Markov Chain Model for an automotive crankshaft. The reliability analysis and prediction for any automotive component or structure is important for analyzing and measuring the failure to increase the design life, eliminate or reduce the likelihood of failures and safety risk. The mechanical failures of the crankshaft are due of high bending and torsion stress concentration from high cycle and low rotating bending and torsional stress. The Markov Chain was used to model the two states based on the probability of failure due to bending and torsion stress. In most investigations it revealed that bending stress is much serve than torsional stress, therefore the probability criteria for the bending state would be higher compared to the torsion state. A statistical comparison between the developed Markov Chain Model and field data was done to observe the percentage of error. The reliability analysis and prediction was derived and illustrated from the Markov Chain Model were shown in the Weibull probability and cumulative distribution function, hazard rate and reliability curve and the bathtub curve. It can be concluded that Markov Chain Model has the ability to generate near similar data with minimal percentage of error and for a practical application; the proposed model provides a good accuracy in determining the reliability for the crankshaft under mixed mode loading.

  9. Reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode load using Markov Chain Model

    The aim of this paper is to present the reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode loading by using a simple two state Markov Chain Model for an automotive crankshaft. The reliability analysis and prediction for any automotive component or structure is important for analyzing and measuring the failure to increase the design life, eliminate or reduce the likelihood of failures and safety risk. The mechanical failures of the crankshaft are due of high bending and torsion stress concentration from high cycle and low rotating bending and torsional stress. The Markov Chain was used to model the two states based on the probability of failure due to bending and torsion stress. In most investigations it revealed that bending stress is much serve than torsional stress, therefore the probability criteria for the bending state would be higher compared to the torsion state. A statistical comparison between the developed Markov Chain Model and field data was done to observe the percentage of error. The reliability analysis and prediction was derived and illustrated from the Markov Chain Model were shown in the Weibull probability and cumulative distribution function, hazard rate and reliability curve and the bathtub curve. It can be concluded that Markov Chain Model has the ability to generate near similar data with minimal percentage of error and for a practical application; the proposed model provides a good accuracy in determining the reliability for the crankshaft under mixed mode loading

  10. Reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode load using Markov Chain Model

    Nikabdullah, N.; Singh, S. S. K.; Alebrahim, R.; Azizi, M. A.; K, Elwaleed A.; Noorani, M. S. M.

    2014-06-01

    The aim of this paper is to present the reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode loading by using a simple two state Markov Chain Model for an automotive crankshaft. The reliability analysis and prediction for any automotive component or structure is important for analyzing and measuring the failure to increase the design life, eliminate or reduce the likelihood of failures and safety risk. The mechanical failures of the crankshaft are due of high bending and torsion stress concentration from high cycle and low rotating bending and torsional stress. The Markov Chain was used to model the two states based on the probability of failure due to bending and torsion stress. In most investigations it revealed that bending stress is much serve than torsional stress, therefore the probability criteria for the bending state would be higher compared to the torsion state. A statistical comparison between the developed Markov Chain Model and field data was done to observe the percentage of error. The reliability analysis and prediction was derived and illustrated from the Markov Chain Model were shown in the Weibull probability and cumulative distribution function, hazard rate and reliability curve and the bathtub curve. It can be concluded that Markov Chain Model has the ability to generate near similar data with minimal percentage of error and for a practical application; the proposed model provides a good accuracy in determining the reliability for the crankshaft under mixed mode loading.

  11. Current Human Reliability Analysis Methods Applied to Computerized Procedures

    Ronald L. Boring

    2012-06-01

    Computerized procedures (CPs) are an emerging technology within nuclear power plant control rooms. While CPs have been implemented internationally in advanced control rooms, to date no US nuclear power plant has implemented CPs in its main control room (Fink et al., 2009). Yet, CPs are a reality of new plant builds and are an area of considerable interest to existing plants, which see advantages in terms of enhanced ease of use and easier records management by omitting the need for updating hardcopy procedures. The overall intent of this paper is to provide a characterization of human reliability analysis (HRA) issues for computerized procedures. It is beyond the scope of this document to propose a new HRA approach or to recommend specific methods or refinements to those methods. Rather, this paper serves as a review of current HRA as it may be used for the analysis and review of computerized procedures.

  12. CARES - CERAMICS ANALYSIS AND RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF STRUCTURES

    Nemeth, N. N.

    1994-01-01

    The beneficial properties of structural ceramics include their high-temperature strength, light weight, hardness, and corrosion and oxidation resistance. For advanced heat engines, ceramics have demonstrated functional abilities at temperatures well beyond the operational limits of metals. This is offset by the fact that ceramic materials tend to be brittle. When a load is applied, their lack of significant plastic deformation causes the material to crack at microscopic flaws, destroying the component. CARES calculates the fast-fracture reliability or failure probability of macroscopically isotropic ceramic components. These components may be subjected to complex thermomechanical loadings. The program uses results from a commercial structural analysis program (MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS) to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. A multiple material capability allows the finite element model reliability to be a function of many different ceramic material statistical characterizations. The reliability analysis uses element stress, temperature, area, and volume output, which are obtained from two dimensional shell and three dimensional solid isoparametric or axisymmetric finite elements. CARES utilizes the Batdorf model and the two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function to describe the effects of multi-axial stress states on material strength. The shear-sensitive Batdorf model requires a user-selected flaw geometry and a mixed-mode fracture criterion. Flaws intersecting the surface and imperfections embedded in the volume can be modeled. The total strain energy release rate theory is used as a mixed mode fracture criterion for co-planar crack extension. Out-of-plane crack extension criteria are approximated by a simple equation with a semi-empirical constant that can model the maximum tangential stress theory, the minimum strain energy density criterion, the maximum strain energy release rate theory, or experimental results. For comparison, Griffith's maximum tensile stress theory, the principle of independent action, and the Weibull normal stress averaging models are also included. Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities are estimated from four-point bend bar or uniform uniaxial tensile specimen fracture strength data. Parameter estimation can be performed for single or multiple failure modes by using the least-squares analysis or the maximum likelihood method. A more limited program, CARES/PC (COSMIC number LEW-15248) runs on a personal computer and estimates ceramic material properties from three-point bend bar data. CARES/PC does not perform fast fracture reliability estimation. CARES is written in FORTRAN 77 and has been implemented on DEC VAX series computers under VMS and on IBM 370 series computers under VM/CMS. On a VAX, CARES requires 10Mb of main memory. Five MSC/NASTRAN example problems and two ANSYS example problems are provided. There are two versions of CARES supplied on the distribution tape, CARES1 and CARES2. CARES2 contains sub-elements and CARES1 does not. CARES is available on a 9-track 1600 BPI VAX FILES-11 format magnetic tape (standard media) or in VAX BACKUP format on a TK50 tape cartridge. The program requires a FORTRAN 77 compiler and about 12Mb memory. CARES was developed in 1990. DEC, VAX and VMS are trademarks of Digital Equipment Corporation. IBM 370 is a trademark of International Business Machines. MSC/NASTRAN is a trademark of MacNeal-Schwendler Corporation. ANSYS is a trademark of Swanson Analysis Systems, Inc.

  13. Productivity enhancement and reliability through AutoAnalysis

    Garetto, Anthony; Rademacher, Thomas; Schulz, Kristian

    2015-09-01

    The decreasing size and increasing complexity of photomask features, driven by the push to ever smaller technology nodes, places more and more challenges on the mask house, particularly in terms of yield management and cost reduction. Particularly challenging for mask shops is the inspection, repair and review cycle which requires more time and skill from operators due to the higher number of masks required per technology node and larger nuisance defect counts. While the measurement throughput of the AIMS™ platform has been improved in order to keep pace with these trends, the analysis of aerial images has seen little advancement and remains largely a manual process. This manual analysis of aerial images is time consuming, dependent on the skill level of the operator and significantly contributes to the overall mask manufacturing process flow. AutoAnalysis, the first application available for the FAVOR® platform, offers a solution to these problems by providing fully automated analysis of AIMS™ aerial images. Direct communication with the AIMS™ system allows automated data transfer and analysis parallel to the measurements. User defined report templates allow the relevant data to be output in a manner that can be tailored to various internal needs and support the requests of your customers. Productivity is significantly improved due to the fast analysis, operator time is saved and made available for other tasks and reliability is no longer a concern as the most defective region is always and consistently captured. In this paper the concept and approach of AutoAnalysis will be presented as well as an update to the status of the project. The benefits arising from the use of AutoAnalysis will be discussed in more detail and a study will be performed in order to demonstrate.

  14. Comparative analysis of metal samples

    Metal wastes were analysed to establish its origin with respect to a set of pieces. The elemental analysis was realized using the PIXE technique (Proton induced X-ray emission). Results are presented. (Author)

  15. Reliability and availability requirements analysis for DEMO: fuel cycle system

    Pinna, T.; Borgognoni, F. [EURATOM - ENEA Fusion Association, Frascati Research Centre, Frascati (Italy)

    2015-03-15

    The Demonstration Power Plant (DEMO) will be a fusion reactor prototype designed to demonstrate the capability to produce electrical power in a commercially acceptable way. Two of the key elements of the engineering development of the DEMO reactor are the definitions of reliability and availability requirements (or targets). The availability target for a hypothesized Fuel Cycle has been analysed as a test case. The analysis has been done on the basis of the experience gained in operating existing tokamak fusion reactors and developing the ITER design. Plant Breakdown Structure (PBS) and Functional Breakdown Structure (FBS) related to the DEMO Fuel Cycle and correlations between PBS and FBS have been identified. At first, a set of availability targets has been allocated to the various systems on the basis of their operating, protection and safety functions. 75% and 85% of availability has been allocated to the operating functions of fuelling system and tritium plant respectively. 99% of availability has been allocated to the overall systems in executing their safety functions. The chances of the systems to achieve the allocated targets have then been investigated through a Failure Mode and Effect Analysis and Reliability Block Diagram analysis. The following results have been obtained: 1) the target of 75% for the operations of the fuelling system looks reasonable, while the target of 85% for the operations of the whole tritium plant should be reduced to 80%, even though all the tritium plant systems can individually reach quite high availability targets, over 90% - 95%; 2) all the DEMO Fuel Cycle systems can reach the target of 99% in accomplishing their safety functions. (authors)

  16. Reliability and availability requirements analysis for DEMO: fuel cycle system

    The Demonstration Power Plant (DEMO) will be a fusion reactor prototype designed to demonstrate the capability to produce electrical power in a commercially acceptable way. Two of the key elements of the engineering development of the DEMO reactor are the definitions of reliability and availability requirements (or targets). The availability target for a hypothesized Fuel Cycle has been analysed as a test case. The analysis has been done on the basis of the experience gained in operating existing tokamak fusion reactors and developing the ITER design. Plant Breakdown Structure (PBS) and Functional Breakdown Structure (FBS) related to the DEMO Fuel Cycle and correlations between PBS and FBS have been identified. At first, a set of availability targets has been allocated to the various systems on the basis of their operating, protection and safety functions. 75% and 85% of availability has been allocated to the operating functions of fuelling system and tritium plant respectively. 99% of availability has been allocated to the overall systems in executing their safety functions. The chances of the systems to achieve the allocated targets have then been investigated through a Failure Mode and Effect Analysis and Reliability Block Diagram analysis. The following results have been obtained: 1) the target of 75% for the operations of the fuelling system looks reasonable, while the target of 85% for the operations of the whole tritium plant should be reduced to 80%, even though all the tritium plant systems can individually reach quite high availability targets, over 90% - 95%; 2) all the DEMO Fuel Cycle systems can reach the target of 99% in accomplishing their safety functions. (authors)

  17. Flow cytometry reliability analysis and variations in sugarcane DNA content.

    Oliveira, A C L; Pasqual, M; Bruzi, A T; Pio, L A S; Mendona, P M S; Soares, J D R

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability of flow cytometry analysis and the use of this technique to differentiate species and varieties of sugarcane (Saccharum spp) according to their relative DNA content. We analyzed 16 varieties and three species belonging to this genus. To determine a reliable protocol, we evaluated three extraction buffers (LB01, Marie, and TrisMgCl2), the presence and absence of RNase, six doses of propidium iodide (10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 ?g), four periods of exposure to propidium iodide (0, 5, 10, and 20 min), and seven external reference standards (peas, beans, corn, radish, rye, soybean, and tomato) with reference to the coefficient of variation and the DNA content. For statistical analyses, we used the programs Sisvar() and Xlstat(). We recommend using the Marie extraction buffer and at least 15 ?g propidium iodide. The samples should not be analyzed immediately after the addition of propidium iodide. The use of RNase is optional, and tomato should be used as an external reference standard. The results show that sugarcane has a variable genome size (8.42 to 12.12 pg/2C) and the individuals analyzed could be separated into four groups according to their DNA content with relative equality in the genome sizes of the commercial varieties. PMID:26125928

  18. Deductive tree analysis for evaluating the reliability of construction operations

    The importance of structural and construction safety is associated with the adverse consequences that may result from a structural failure and a construction accident. One of the most important objectives of any construction team is to minimize and control the risk levels of failure and accident of construction operations, as well as to determine the various critical factors which might lead to the increase of the probability of failure and accident of the operations. There are several uncertainty events and factors that contribute to the failure and accident of construction operations. The factors are associated with random, human-based or system uncertainty. Some of these factors include the level of engineering knowledge and experience, level of workmanship and attitude, level of communication procedures, methods and sequence of construction. Most of these factors are subjective, vague, and imprecisely defined, and therefore, they are expressed in semantic terms rather than mathematical measures. The subjectivity of the factors needs to be incorporated into the reliability estimation processes. The objective of this paper is to present a reliability evaluation methodology for construction operations that considers the effect of the factors and their uncertainties on the estimation of the risk measures for construction operations. The methodology is based on a deductive tree analysis approach which involves identifying a possible condition of the construction system and determining the various events and combination of the factors that contribute to the occurrence of that condition

  19. Sociological analysis and comparative education

    Woock, Roger R.

    1981-12-01

    It is argued that comparative education is essentially a derivative field of study, in that it borrows theories and methods from academic disciplines. After a brief humanistic phase, in which history and philosophy were central for comparative education, sociology became an important source. In the mid-50's and 60's, sociology in the United States was characterised by Structural Functionalism as a theory, and Social Survey as a dominant methodology. Both were incorporated into the development of comparative education. Increasingly in the 70's, and certainly today, the new developments in sociology are characterised by an attack on Positivism, which is seen as the philosophical position underlying both functionalism and survey methods. New or re-discovered theories with their attendant methodologies included Marxism, Phenomenological Sociology, Critical Theory, and Historical Social Science. The current relationship between comparative education and social science is one of uncertainty, but since social science is seen to be returning to its European roots, the hope is held out for the development of an integrated social theory and method which will provide a much stronger basis for developments in comparative education.

  20. Towards a non-wired simulator for reliability analysis

    This paper outlines the objectives and preliminary results of a research programme aiming to increase the advantages of electronic simulators used for reliability studies of complex systems. Research work has resulted in the design of a device based on an electronic simulator capable of carrying out all types of simulation without the drawback of wiring, as is currently the case. Its performance levels as regards speed are comparable to those of wired simulators and this is its main advantage over studies made on a computer. In addition, the simulator is connected to a computer which greatly increases system flexibility and user-friendliness. The first results obtained illustrate what characteristics can be expected of such a system, both as regards the anticipated computation time and the extended processing capabilities (such as the study of common cause failures)

  1. Towards a non-wired simulator for reliability analysis

    This paper outlines the objectives and preliminary results of a research programme aiming to increase the advantages of electronic simulators used for reliability studies of complex systems. Research work has resulted in the design of a device based on an electronic simulator capable of carrying out all types of simulation without the drawback of wiring, as is currently the case. Its performance levels as regards speed are comparable to those of wired simulators and this is its main advantage over studies made on a computer. In addition, the simulator is connected to a computer which greatly increases system flexibility and user-friendliness. The first results obtained illustrate what characteristics can be expected of such a system, both as regards the anticipated computation time and the extended processing capabilities (such as the study of common cause failures). (author)

  2. LIFETIME ESTIMATION FROM ACCELERATED RELIABILITY TESTING USING FINITE ELEMENTS ANALYSIS

    Sebastian Marian ZAHARIA; Ionel MARTINESCU

    2013-01-01

    The paper is focused at the study of the reliability and of the lifetime of ball bearings,using reliability accelerated testing. The main objectives of this paper are: the estimation of thelifetime and reliability of ball bearings. Taking into account the aspects regarding the statisticalprocessing of experimental data, we determined the main reliability parameters, which in turndetermine the main characteristics regarding the performance and the warranty period of the ballbearings. In this p...

  3. Reliability Analysis of a Glacier Lake Warning System Using a Bayesian Net

    Sturny, Rouven A.; Bründl, Michael

    2013-04-01

    Beside structural mitigation measures like avalanche defense structures, dams and galleries, warning and alarm systems have become important measures for dealing with Alpine natural hazards. Integrating them into risk mitigation strategies and comparing their effectiveness with structural measures requires quantification of the reliability of these systems. However, little is known about how reliability of warning systems can be quantified and which methods are suitable for comparing their contribution to risk reduction with that of structural mitigation measures. We present a reliability analysis of a warning system located in Grindelwald, Switzerland. The warning system was built for warning and protecting residents and tourists from glacier outburst floods as consequence of a rapid drain of the glacier lake. We have set up a Bayesian Net (BN, BPN) that allowed for a qualitative and quantitative reliability analysis. The Conditional Probability Tables (CPT) of the BN were determined according to manufacturer's reliability data for each component of the system as well as by assigning weights for specific BN nodes accounting for information flows and decision-making processes of the local safety service. The presented results focus on the two alerting units 'visual acoustic signal' (VAS) and 'alerting of the intervention entities' (AIE). For the summer of 2009, the reliability was determined to be 94 % for the VAS and 83 % for the AEI. The probability of occurrence of a major event was calculated as 0.55 % per day resulting in an overall reliability of 99.967 % for the VAS and 99.906 % for the AEI. We concluded that a failure of the VAS alerting unit would be the consequence of a simultaneous failure of the four probes located in the lake and the gorge. Similarly, we deduced that the AEI would fail either if there were a simultaneous connectivity loss of the mobile and fixed network in Grindelwald, an Internet access loss or a failure of the regional operations centre. However, the probability of a common failure of these components was assumed to be low. Overall it can be stated that due to numerous redundancies, the investigated warning system is highly reliable and its influence on risk reduction is very high. Comparable studies in the future are needed to classify these results and to gain more experience how the reliability of warning systems could be determined in practice.

  4. Reliability Analysis Using Dimension Reduction Method with Variable Sampling Points

    This study provides how the Dimension Reduction (DR) method as an efficient technique for reliability analysis can acquire its increased efficiency when it is applied to highly nonlinear problems. In the highly nonlinear engineering systems, 4N+1 (N: number of random variables) sampling is generally recognized to be appropriate. However, there exists uncertainty concerning the standard for judgment of non-linearity of the system as well as possibility of diverse degrees of non-linearity according to each of the random variables. In this regard, this study judged the linearity individually on each random variable after 2N+1 sampling. If high non-linearity appeared, 2 additional sampling was administered on each random variable to apply the DR method. The applications of the proposed sampling to the examples produced the constant results with increased efficiency

  5. UPS reliability analysis with non-exponential duration distribution

    In this paper, the reliability performance of uninterruptible power systems is studied. After the description of the protection system against anomalous conditions, a brief failure mode analysis is performed in order to define the fault tree referring to compensator output voltage. An analytical model able to deal with non-exponential life and repair time distributions is developed, using semi-Markov processes and assuming stochastic independence for the components of the system under study. The mean time between failure (MTBF) and the mean time to restoration of the compensator output voltage are then calculated exactly. Finally a mechanical bypass switch, which connects the load to the mains directly during long failures, is taken into account in the MTBF calculation via a simple approximation. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to validate the results of the analytical model and of the approximation

  6. Reliability Analysis Using Dimension Reduction Method with Variable Sampling Points

    Yook, Sun Min; Min, Jun Hong; Choi, Dong Hoon [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Dong Ho [Hyundai Motor Company, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2009-09-15

    This study provides how the Dimension Reduction (DR) method as an efficient technique for reliability analysis can acquire its increased efficiency when it is applied to highly nonlinear problems. In the highly nonlinear engineering systems, 4N+1 (N: number of random variables) sampling is generally recognized to be appropriate. However, there exists uncertainty concerning the standard for judgment of non-linearity of the system as well as possibility of diverse degrees of non-linearity according to each of the random variables. In this regard, this study judged the linearity individually on each random variable after 2N+1 sampling. If high non-linearity appeared, 2 additional sampling was administered on each random variable to apply the DR method. The applications of the proposed sampling to the examples produced the constant results with increased efficiency.

  7. Events analysis of the main generator using reliability block diagram

    Generator failure events at overseas and Japanese nuclear power plants were analyzed in detail through a reliability block diagram. This analysis not only took note of the total number of component failure and part failures but also focused on age-related degradation phenomena. Components or parts that were found to have failed most frequently included stator cooling system pipes, stator cooling system valves, automatic voltage regulators, and alternating-current exciters. Event reports on these components or parts were reexamined one by one. Because these components or parts have been adequately inspected, it was confirmed that there are no additional maintenance measures that should be reflected in Japanese pressurized water reactor (PWR) power plants. A comparison of the frequency of failures between Japanese and American power plants revealed that Japanese power plants suffered approximately one-tenth of the frequency of failures experienced in American plants, suggesting that higher levels of maintenance work are achieved at Japanese plants. (author)

  8. Basic aspects of stochastic reliability analysis for redundancy systems

    Much confusion has been created by trying to establish common cause failure (CCF) as an extra phenomenon which has to be treated with extra methods in reliability and data analysis. This paper takes another approach which can be roughly described by the statement that dependent failure is the basic phenomenon, while 'independent failure' refers to a special limiting case, namely the perfectly homogeneous population. This approach is motivated by examples demonstrating that common causes do not lead to dependent failure, so far as physical dependencies like shared components are excluded, and that stochastic dependencies are not related to common causes. The possibility to select more than one failure behaviour from an inhomogeneous population is identified as an additional random process which creates stochastic dependence. However, this source of randomness is usually treated in the deterministic limit, which destroys dependence and hence yields incorrect multiple failure frequencies for redundancy structures, thus creating the need for applying corrective CCF models. (author)

  9. Time-dependent reliability analysis and condition assessment of structures

    Ellingwood, B.R. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States)

    1997-01-01

    Structures generally play a passive role in assurance of safety in nuclear plant operation, but are important if the plant is to withstand the effect of extreme environmental or abnormal events. Relative to mechanical and electrical components, structural systems and components would be difficult and costly to replace. While the performance of steel or reinforced concrete structures in service generally has been very good, their strengths may deteriorate during an extended service life as a result of changes brought on by an aggressive environment, excessive loading, or accidental loading. Quantitative tools for condition assessment of aging structures can be developed using time-dependent structural reliability analysis methods. Such methods provide a framework for addressing the uncertainties attendant to aging in the decision process.

  10. Time-dependent reliability analysis and condition assessment of structures

    Structures generally play a passive role in assurance of safety in nuclear plant operation, but are important if the plant is to withstand the effect of extreme environmental or abnormal events. Relative to mechanical and electrical components, structural systems and components would be difficult and costly to replace. While the performance of steel or reinforced concrete structures in service generally has been very good, their strengths may deteriorate during an extended service life as a result of changes brought on by an aggressive environment, excessive loading, or accidental loading. Quantitative tools for condition assessment of aging structures can be developed using time-dependent structural reliability analysis methods. Such methods provide a framework for addressing the uncertainties attendant to aging in the decision process

  11. Analogical reasoning for reliability analysis based on generic data

    Kozin, Igor O

    1996-10-01

    The paper suggests using the systemic concept 'analogy' for the foundation of an approach to analyze system reliability on the basis of generic data, describing the method of structuring the set that defines analogical models, an approach of transition from the analogical model to a reliability model and a way of obtaining reliability intervals of analogous objects.

  12. Collocation Dictionaries: A Comparative Analysis

    Buenda Castro, Miriam; Faber, Pamela

    2014-01-01

    The importance of phraseological information in lexicographic resources is experiencing an exponential growth. This is evident in the publication in recent years of a wide variety of combinatorial or collocation dictionaries. This paper describes and compares the main monolingual collocation dictionaries for English and Spanish in regards to the following: (i) types of collocation encoded; (ii) kinds of collocational information offered; (iii) place for collocations in the micro or macrostruc...

  13. Comparative analysis of Caenorhabditis genomes

    Vergara-Correa, Ismael

    2011-01-01

    Comparative genomic studies between Caenorhabditis species as well as within C. elegans strains have proved useful for unveiling the genetic basis of differences in biological processes and phenotypical variation. An important step for such studies is the accurate detection and characterization of genomic conservation and divergence. Using newly developed tools OrthoCluster and OrthoClusterDB, perfect and imperfect conserved synteny between the two chromosomal assemblies of C. elegans and it...

  14. Reliability analysis and component functional allocations for the ESF multi-loop controller design

    This paper deals with the reliability analysis and component functional allocations to ensure the enhanced system reliability and availability. In the Engineered Safety Features, functionally dependent components are controlled by a multi-loop controller. The system reliability of the Engineered Safety Features-Component Control System, especially, the multi-loop controller which is changed comparing to the conventional controllers is an important factor for the Probability Safety Assessment in the nuclear field. To evaluate the multi-loop controller's failure rate of the k-out-of-m redundant system, the binomial process is used. In addition, the component functional allocation is performed to tolerate a single multi-loop controller failure without the loss of vital operation within the constraints of the piping and component configuration, and ensure that mechanically redundant components remain functional. (author)

  15. Forecasting methods: a comparative analysis

    Iqbal, Javed

    2001-01-01

    Forecasting is an important tool for management, planning and administration in various fields. In this paper forecasting performance of different methods is considered using time series data of Pakistan's export to United Sates and money supply. It is found that, like other studies of this nature, no single forecasting method provides better forecast for both the series. The techniques considered are ARIMA, Regression Analysis, Vector Autoregression (VAR), Error Correction Model (ECM) and AR...

  16. Models and data requirements for human reliability analysis

    It has been widely recognised for many years that the safety of the nuclear power generation depends heavily on the human factors related to plant operation. This has been confirmed by the accidents at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. Both these cases revealed how human actions can defeat engineered safeguards and the need for special operator training to cover the possibility of unexpected plant conditions. The importance of the human factor also stands out in the analysis of abnormal events and insights from probabilistic safety assessments (PSA's), which reveal a large proportion of cases having their origin in faulty operator performance. A consultants' meeting, organized jointly by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) was held at IIASA in Laxenburg, Austria, December 7-11, 1987, with the aim of reviewing existing models used in Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) for Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) and of identifying the data required. The report collects both the contributions offered by the members of the Expert Task Force and the findings of the extensive discussions that took place during the meeting. Refs, figs and tabs

  17. Bayesian networks inference algorithm to implement Dempster Shafer theory in reliability analysis

    This paper deals with the use of Bayesian networks to compute system reliability. The reliability analysis problem is described and the usual methods for quantitative reliability analysis are presented within a case study. Some drawbacks that justify the use of Bayesian networks are identified. The basic concepts of the Bayesian networks application to reliability analysis are introduced and a model to compute the reliability for the case study is presented. Dempster Shafer theory to treat epistemic uncertainty in reliability analysis is then discussed and its basic concepts that can be applied thanks to the Bayesian network inference algorithm are introduced. Finally, it is shown, with a numerical example, how Bayesian networks' inference algorithms compute complex system reliability and what the Dempster Shafer theory can provide to reliability analysis

  18. Bayesian networks inference algorithm to implement Dempster Shafer theory in reliability analysis

    Simon, C. [Centre de Recherche en Automatique de Nancy (CRAN-UMR 7039), Nancy University, CNRS, 2 Rue Jean Lamour, 54509 Vandoeuvre (France)], E-mail: christophe.simon@cran.uhp-nancy.fr; Weber, P. [Centre de Recherche en Automatique de Nancy (CRAN-UMR 7039), Nancy University, CNRS, 2 Rue Jean Lamour, 54509 Vandoeuvre (France)], E-mail: philippe.weber@cran.uhp-nancy.fr; Evsukoff, A. [COPPE/Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro RJ, Brazil, P.O. Box 68506, 21941-972 Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)], E-mail: alexandre.evsukoff@coc.ufrj.br

    2008-07-15

    This paper deals with the use of Bayesian networks to compute system reliability. The reliability analysis problem is described and the usual methods for quantitative reliability analysis are presented within a case study. Some drawbacks that justify the use of Bayesian networks are identified. The basic concepts of the Bayesian networks application to reliability analysis are introduced and a model to compute the reliability for the case study is presented. Dempster Shafer theory to treat epistemic uncertainty in reliability analysis is then discussed and its basic concepts that can be applied thanks to the Bayesian network inference algorithm are introduced. Finally, it is shown, with a numerical example, how Bayesian networks' inference algorithms compute complex system reliability and what the Dempster Shafer theory can provide to reliability analysis.

  19. Reliability improvement of robotics systems: Analysis, design and real time supervision

    Reliability improvement of Robotics Systems is a key issue in automation and autonomy in maintenance and intervention tasks in Hostile Environment. Constraints in hostile environment require different way of using and programming of robots when compared with industrial application. To take maximum benefit of robot technology, the level of Confidence in the robotics tool must be much higher than in classical production world. To increase this level of confidence, application of Reliability Engineering in combination with strong knowledge of robot technology leads to such an objective. In this paper, three different aspects are considered and developed as tools to be used in different stage of this improvement. The first one is the Analysis of reliability of robotics and in remote handling systems in general to identify failure modes, effects on the system, sensitive components and needs of redundancy. Tools as the Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis are presented as well as the Fault Tree Analysis. The second one deals with design criteria for new robot systems or improvement of existing one using reliability and safety driven design concepts. Such concepts are applicable on mechanical design, electrical design and electronic design including the computer controller of the robot. The last aspect is the control in real time of availability of functions, safety level as well as failure detection in the various subsystems composing a robot device. Techniques of supervision by use of safety check subroutines are considered. Experiences of such improvement process of robotics for maintenance of Fusion machines is discussed. (author). Figs

  20. A Simulation Methodology for Reliability Analysis in Multi-Core SoCs

    Coskun, Ayse K.; Simunic Rosing, Tajana; Leblebici, Yusuf; De Micheli, Giovanni

    2006-01-01

    Reliability has become a significant challenge for system design in new process technologies. Higher integration levels dramatically increase power densities, which leads to higher temperature and adverse effects on reliability. In this paper, we introduce a simulation methodology to analyze reliability of multi-core SoCs. The proposed simulator is the first to provide system-on-chip level fine-grained reliability analysis. We use our simulation methodology to study the reliability effects of...

  1. Adjoint sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains - II: Application to IFMIF reliability assessment

    In Part II of this work, the adjoint sensitivity analysis procedure developed in Part I is applied to perform sensitivity analysis of several dynamic reliability models of systems of increasing complexity, culminating with the consideration of the International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility (IFMIF) accelerator system. Section II presents the main steps of a procedure for the automated generation of Markov chains for reliability analysis, including the abstraction of the physical system, construction of the Markov chain, and the generation and solution of the ensuing set of differential equations; all of these steps have been implemented in a stand-alone computer code system called QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN. This code system has been applied to sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability measures for a paradigm '2-out-of-3' system comprising five components and also to a comprehensive dynamic reliability analysis of the IFMIF accelerator system facilities for the average availability and, respectively, the system's availability at the final mission time. The QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN has been used to efficiently compute sensitivities to 186 failure and repair rates characterizing components and subsystems of the first-level fault tree of the IFMIF accelerator system. (authors)

  2. Qualitative human reliability analysis for spent fuel handling

    Human reliability analysis (HRA) methods have been developed primarily to provide information for use in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) that analyze nuclear power plant (NPP) operations. Given the original emphasis of these methods, it is understandable that many HRAs have not ventured far from NPP control room applications. Despite this historical focus on the control room, there has been growing interest and discussion regarding the application of HRA methods to other NPP activities such as spent fuel handling (SFH) or operations in different types of facilities. One recently developed HRA method, 'A Technique for Human Event Analysis' (ATHEANA) has been proposed as a promising candidate for diverse applications due to its particular approach for systematically uncovering the dynamic, contextual conditions influencing human performance. This paper describes one successful test of this proposition by presenting portions of a recently completed project in which a scoping study was performed to accomplish the following goals: (1) investigate what should be included in a qualitative HRA for spent fuel and cask handling operations; and (2) demonstrate that the ATHEANA HRA technique can be usefully applied to these operations. The preliminary, scoping qualitative HRA examined, in a generic manner, how human performance of SFH and dry cask storage operations (DCSOs) can plausibly lead to radiological consequences that impact the public and the environment. The study involved the performance of typical, qualitative HRA tasks such as collecting relevant information and the preliminary identification of human failure events or unsafe actions, relevant influences (e.g., performance shaping factors, other contextual factors), event scenario development and categorization of human failure event (HFE) scenario groupings. Information from relevant literature sources was augmented with subject matter expert interviews and analysis of an edited video of selected operations. Elements of NUREG-1792, Good Practices for Implementing Human Reliability Analyses (HRA) and NUREG-1624, Rev. 1, Technical Basis and Implementation Guidelines for A Technique for Human Event Analysis (ATHEANA) formed critical parts of the technical basis for the preliminary analysis. Mis-loading of spent fuel into a cask and dropping of a loaded cask were the two human failure event groupings of primary interest, although all human performance aspects of DCSOs were considered to some extent. Of important note is that HRA is typically performed in the context of a plant-specific PRA study. This analysis was performed without the benefit of the context provided by a larger PRA study, nor was it plant specific, and so it investigated only generic HRA issues relevant to SFH. However, the improved understanding of human performance issues provided by the study will likely enhance the ability to carry out a detailed qualitative HRA for a specific NPP at some point in the future. Furthermore, support was obtained regarding the potential for applying ATHEANA beyond NPP settings. This paper provides a description of the process followed during the analysis, a description of the HFE scenario groupings, discussion regarding general human performance vulnerabilities, and a detailed examination of one HFE scenario developed in the study. (authors)

  3. Gradual Reliability Sensitivity Analysis of Mechanical Part Considering Preventive Maintenance

    Li Changyou; Liu Haiyang; Guo Song; Zhang Yimin; Li Zhenyuan

    2014-01-01

    A lot of mechanical parts are subject to failure due to the deterioration. Usually the preventive maintenance is taken to ensure the safety and reliability. Therefore, it is very important to study the gradual reliability design of the mechanical part for improving the gradual reliability of the mechanical system under the condition of considering the preventive maintenance. Beta distribution is employed to describe the randomness of the mechanical part state after the preventive maintenance....

  4. Analysis and Optimization of MPSoC Reliability

    Coskun, Ayse K.; Simunic Rosing, Tajana; Mihic, Kresimir; De Micheli, Giovanni; Leblebici, Yusuf

    2006-01-01

    Advancements in technology enable integration of multiple devices on a single core, resulting in increased on chip power and temperature densities. Higher temperatures, in turn, present a significant challenge for reliability. In this work we propose a comprehensive framework for analyzing reliability of multi-core systems, considering permanent faults. We show that aggressive power management can have an impact on reliability due to temperature cycling. Our cycle-accurate simulation methodol...

  5. Reliability analysis based on losses from failure Modelling

    Dr. Amit Gupta , Renu Garg

    2013-01-01

    As the cost of software application failures grows andas these failures increasingly impact business performance,software reliability will become progressively more important.Employing effective software reliability engineering techniquesto improve product and process reliability would be theindustry’s best interests as well as major challenges. As softwarecomplexity and software quality are highly related to softwarereliability, the measurements of software complexity and qualityattributes h...

  6. Reliability analysis and its application in the Loviisa nuclear power plant project

    A reliability analysis was performed consisting of the following stages: the failure mode and effects analysis, the common mode failure analysis, reliability models and numerical calculations. The obtained results were applied in the LOVIISA reactor reliability analysis. A summary of analyses carried out until 1974 and the future stages of the research programme with regard to the selection of objects for the reliability analysis are given. The analysis of the reactor protection system, radiation monitoring system, after-heat removal system and a consequence diagram related to a loss of coolant accident are described as examples. In quantitative analysis, fault-tree techniques and Monte Carlo simulation were primarily used. (J.P.)

  7. Modified generalized linear failure rate distribution: Properties and reliability analysis

    Ezzatallah Baloui Jamkhaneh

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces a new comprehensive four-parameter distribution called the modified generalized linear failure rate (MGLFR distribution. The method generalizes some well-known and most commonly used distributions in reliability such as exponential, Rayleigh, linear failure rate, generalized linear failure rate and modified Weibull distribution. The study also investigates some essential properties of this new distribution and considers the problem of the evaluation of system reliability by describing the lifetimes of components based on a fuzzy MGLFR distribution and by developing fuzzy reliability characteristics. The results can be applied to determine the reliability of real objects where parameters of lifetime variable are subject to uncertainty.

  8. Wind energy Computerized Maintenance Management System (CMMS) : data collection recommendations for reliability analysis.

    Peters, Valerie A.; Ogilvie, Alistair; Veers, Paul S.

    2009-09-01

    This report addresses the general data requirements for reliability analysis of fielded wind turbines and other wind plant equipment. The report provides a list of the data needed to support reliability and availability analysis, and gives specific recommendations for a Computerized Maintenance Management System (CMMS) to support automated analysis. This data collection recommendations report was written by Sandia National Laboratories to address the general data requirements for reliability analysis of fielded wind turbines. This report is intended to help the reader develop a basic understanding of what data are needed from a Computerized Maintenance Management System (CMMS) and other data systems, for reliability analysis. The report provides: (1) a list of the data needed to support reliability and availability analysis; and (2) specific recommendations for a CMMS to support automated analysis. Though written for reliability analysis of wind turbines, much of the information is applicable to a wider variety of equipment and a wider variety of analysis and reporting needs.

  9. Reliability analysis of the service water system of Angra 1 reactor

    A reliability analysis of the service water system is done aiming to use in the evaluation of the non reliability of the Component Cooling System (SRC) for great loss of cooling accidents in nuclear power plants. (E.G.)

  10. Reliability analysis of the service water system of Angra 1 reactor

    A reliability analysis of the service water system is done aiming to use in the evaluation of the non reliability of the component cooling system (SRC) for great loss of cooling accidents in nuclear power plants. (E.G.)

  11. Failure Analysis and Field Failures: a Real Shortcut to Reliability Improvement

    G. Mura; Cassanelli, G.

    2007-01-01

    Starting from two case histories, where only after thorough Failure Analysis the suddenly appearance of a failure was linked to much earlier events, the possibility of improving the reliability and of adjusting the reliability prediction tools are discussed.

  12. Evaluation of ATHEANA methodology a second generation human reliability analysis

    Incidents and accidents at nuclear power plants (NPP) have been and always will be considered as undesired occurrences. Human error (REASON, 1990) is probably the major contributor to serious accidents as those that occurred at Three Mile Island NPP, Unit 2 (TMI-2), in 1979, and Chernobyl, Unit 4, in 1986, and (AEOD/E95-01, 1995 at others NPPs. Reviews and analysis of those accidents and others near-misses have shown operators performing actions that are not required for the accident response and, in fact, worsen the plant's condition. This action, where a person does something that it's not supposed to do, believing that it was the right thing to do, resulting in changes in the plant that may be worse than if he had done nothing, is called Error of Commission (EOC). These inappropriate actions are rightly affected (NUREG-1624, Rev.1, 2000) by the off-normal context (i.e., the combination of plant conditions and performance shaping factors) of the event scenario that virtually forces the operator to fail. Considering that this kind of human intervention could be an important failure mode and precursor to more serious events, aggravated by the fact that actual probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), does not consider this kind of error, a new methodology (NUREG-1624, Rev.1, 2000) was developed of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA), called 'A Technique for Human Event Analysis' (ATHEANA). ATHEANA is a multidisciplinary second-generation HRA method and provides an HRA quantification process and PRA modeling interface that can accommodate and represent human performance in real nuclear power plant accidents. This paper presents this new methodology in order to identified its weak and strong points, to evaluate its advantages and disadvantages and its benefits to safety, and finally, to analyze its application to Angra NPP. (author)

  13. Reliability-Analysis of Offshore Structures using Directional Loads

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Bloch, Allan; Sterndorff, M. J.

    2000-01-01

    Reliability analyses of offshore structures such as steel jacket platforms are usually performed using stochastic models for the wave loads based on the omnidirectional wave height. However, reliability analyses with respect to structural failure modes such as total collapse of a structure genera...

  14. Analysis of the reliability of a statistical oil spill response model.

    Abascal, Ana J; Castanedo, Sonia; Medina, Raul; Liste, Maria

    2010-11-01

    A statistical oil spill response model is developed and validated by means of actual oil slick observations reported during the Prestige accident and trajectories of drifter buoys. The model is based on the analysis of a database of hypothetical oil spill scenarios simulated by means of a Lagrangian transport model. To carry out the simulations, a re-analysis database consisting of 44-year hindcast dataset of wind and waves and climatologic daily mean surface currents is used. The number of scenarios required to obtain statistically reliable results is investigated, finding that 200 scenarios provide an optimal balance between the accuracy of the results and the computational effort. The reliability of the model was analyzed by comparing the actual data with the numerical results. The agreement found between actual and numerical data shows that the developed statistical oil spill model is a valuable tool to support spill response planning. PMID:20701930

  15. Wind turbine reliability : a database and analysis approach.

    Linsday, James (ARES Corporation); Briand, Daniel; Hill, Roger Ray; Stinebaugh, Jennifer A.; Benjamin, Allan S. (ARES Corporation)

    2008-02-01

    The US wind Industry has experienced remarkable growth since the turn of the century. At the same time, the physical size and electrical generation capabilities of wind turbines has also experienced remarkable growth. As the market continues to expand, and as wind generation continues to gain a significant share of the generation portfolio, the reliability of wind turbine technology becomes increasingly important. This report addresses how operations and maintenance costs are related to unreliability - that is the failures experienced by systems and components. Reliability tools are demonstrated, data needed to understand and catalog failure events is described, and practical wind turbine reliability models are illustrated, including preliminary results. This report also presents a continuing process of how to proceed with controlling industry requirements, needs, and expectations related to Reliability, Availability, Maintainability, and Safety. A simply stated goal of this process is to better understand and to improve the operable reliability of wind turbine installations.

  16. Procedure for conducting a human-reliability analysis for nuclear power plants. Final report

    Bell, B.J.; Swain, A.D.

    1983-05-01

    This document describes in detail a procedure to be followed in conducting a human reliability analysis as part of a probabilistic risk assessment when such an analysis is performed according to the methods described in NUREG/CR-1278, Handbook for Human Reliability Analysis with Emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications. An overview of the procedure describing the major elements of a human reliability analysis is presented along with a detailed description of each element and an example of an actual analysis. An appendix consists of some sample human reliability analysis problems for further study.

  17. Procedure for conducting a human-reliability analysis for nuclear power plants. Final report

    This document describes in detail a procedure to be followed in conducting a human reliability analysis as part of a probabilistic risk assessment when such an analysis is performed according to the methods described in NUREG/CR-1278, Handbook for Human Reliability Analysis with Emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications. An overview of the procedure describing the major elements of a human reliability analysis is presented along with a detailed description of each element and an example of an actual analysis. An appendix consists of some sample human reliability analysis problems for further study

  18. Monte Carlo methods for the reliability analysis of Markov systems

    This paper presents Monte Carlo methods for the reliability analysis of Markov systems. Markov models are useful in treating dependencies between components. The present paper shows how the adjoint Monte Carlo method for the continuous time Markov process can be derived from the method for the discrete-time Markov process by a limiting process. The straightforward extensions to the treatment of mean unavailability (over a time interval) are given. System unavailabilities can also be estimated; this is done by making the system failed states absorbing, and not permitting repair from them. A forward Monte Carlo method is presented in which the weighting functions are related to the adjoint function. In particular, if the exact adjoint function is known then weighting factors can be constructed such that the exact answer can be obtained with a single Monte Carlo trial. Of course, if the exact adjoint function is known, there is no need to perform the Monte Carlo calculation. However, the formulation is useful since it gives insight into choices of the weight factors which will reduce the variance of the estimator

  19. Potential Improvements in Human Reliability Analysis for Fire Risk Assessments

    The results of numerous fire risk assessments (FRA) and the experience gained from actual fire events have shown that fire can be a significant contributor to nuclear power plant (NPP) risk. However, on the basis of reviews of the FRAs performed for the Individual Plant External Events Examination (IPEEE) program in the U.S. and on recent research performed by U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to support increased use of risk information in regulatory decision making [e.g., Ref. 1, 2], it has become clear that improved modelling and quantification of human performance during fire events requires a better treatment of the special environment and response context produced by fires. This paper describes fire-related factors that have been identified as potentially impacting human performance, discusses to what extent such factors were modelled in the IPEEE FRAs, discusses prioritization of the factors likely to be most important to a realistic assessment of plant safety, and discusses which factors are likely to need additional research and development in order to allow adequate modelling in the human reliability analysis (HRA) portions of FRAs. The determination of which factors need to be modelled and the improvement of HRA related approaches for modelling such factors are critical aspects of the NRC's plan to improve FRA methods, tools, and data and to update a number of existing FRAs. (authors)

  20. Analysis of reliability centered maintenance for service water system in nuclear power plants

    Reliability centered maintenance (RCM) methodology has been applied to a service water system in AP1000 nuclear power plant. Using the functional failure modes and effect analysis (FMEA) and logic tree analysis (LTA), the optimized maintenance strategy is established based on a better understanding of the relevant information on this system and related equipments (including the functional failures, failure modes and effects)conclude. Compared with the current maintenance strategy, this maintenance strategy optimized by RCM conducts the condition monitoring and periodical maintenance for dominant failures but conducts periodical test for the recessive failures. (authors)

  1. An efficient phased mission reliability analysis for autonomous vehicles

    Remenyte-Prescott, R., E-mail: R.Remenyte-Prescott@nottingham.ac.u [Nottingham Transportation Engineering Centre, Faculty of Engineering, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD (United Kingdom); Andrews, J.D. [Nottingham Transportation Engineering Centre, Faculty of Engineering, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD (United Kingdom); Chung, P.W.H. [Department of Computer Science, Loughborough University, Loughborough LE11 3TU (United Kingdom)

    2010-03-15

    Autonomous systems are becoming more commonly used, especially in hazardous situations. Such systems are expected to make their own decisions about future actions when some capabilities degrade due to failures of their subsystems. Such decisions are made without human input, therefore they need to be well-informed in a short time when the situation is analysed and future consequences of the failure are estimated. The future planning of the mission should take account of the likelihood of mission failure. The reliability analysis for autonomous systems can be performed using the methodologies developed for phased mission analysis, where the causes of failure for each phase in the mission can be expressed by fault trees. Unmanned autonomous vehicles (UAVs) are of a particular interest in the aeronautical industry, where it is a long term ambition to operate them routinely in civil airspace. Safety is the main requirement for the UAV operation and the calculation of failure probability of each phase and the overall mission is the topic of this paper. When components or subsystems fail or environmental conditions throughout the mission change, these changes can affect the future mission. The new proposed methodology takes into account the available diagnostics data and is used to predict future capabilities of the UAV in real time. Since this methodology is based on the efficient BDD method, the quickly provided advice can be used in making decisions. When failures occur appropriate actions are required in order to preserve safety of the autonomous vehicle. The overall decision making strategy for autonomous vehicles is explained in this paper. Some limitations of the methodology are discussed and further improvements are presented based on experimental results.

  2. An efficient phased mission reliability analysis for autonomous vehicles

    Autonomous systems are becoming more commonly used, especially in hazardous situations. Such systems are expected to make their own decisions about future actions when some capabilities degrade due to failures of their subsystems. Such decisions are made without human input, therefore they need to be well-informed in a short time when the situation is analysed and future consequences of the failure are estimated. The future planning of the mission should take account of the likelihood of mission failure. The reliability analysis for autonomous systems can be performed using the methodologies developed for phased mission analysis, where the causes of failure for each phase in the mission can be expressed by fault trees. Unmanned autonomous vehicles (UAVs) are of a particular interest in the aeronautical industry, where it is a long term ambition to operate them routinely in civil airspace. Safety is the main requirement for the UAV operation and the calculation of failure probability of each phase and the overall mission is the topic of this paper. When components or subsystems fail or environmental conditions throughout the mission change, these changes can affect the future mission. The new proposed methodology takes into account the available diagnostics data and is used to predict future capabilities of the UAV in real time. Since this methodology is based on the efficient BDD method, the quickly provided advice can be used in making decisions. When failures occur appropriate actions are required in order to preserve safety of the autonomous vehicle. The overall decision making strategy for autonomous vehicles is explained in this paper. Some limitations of the methodology are discussed and further improvements are presented based on experimental results.

  3. Constellation Ground Systems Launch Availability Analysis: Enhancing Highly Reliable Launch Systems Design

    Gernand, Jeffrey L.; Gillespie, Amanda M.; Monaghan, Mark W.; Cummings, Nicholas H.

    2010-01-01

    Success of the Constellation Program's lunar architecture requires successfully launching two vehicles, Ares I/Orion and Ares V/Altair, in a very limited time period. The reliability and maintainability of flight vehicles and ground systems must deliver a high probability of successfully launching the second vehicle in order to avoid wasting the on-orbit asset launched by the first vehicle. The Ground Operations Project determined which ground subsystems had the potential to affect the probability of the second launch and allocated quantitative availability requirements to these subsystems. The Ground Operations Project also developed a methodology to estimate subsystem reliability, availability and maintainability to ensure that ground subsystems complied with allocated launch availability and maintainability requirements. The verification analysis developed quantitative estimates of subsystem availability based on design documentation; testing results, and other information. Where appropriate, actual performance history was used for legacy subsystems or comparative components that will support Constellation. The results of the verification analysis will be used to verify compliance with requirements and to highlight design or performance shortcomings for further decision-making. This case study will discuss the subsystem requirements allocation process, describe the ground systems methodology for completing quantitative reliability, availability and maintainability analysis, and present findings and observation based on analysis leading to the Ground Systems Preliminary Design Review milestone.

  4. EPRI/NRC-RES fire human reliability analysis guidelines

    During the 1990s, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) developed methods for fire risk analysis to support its utility members in the preparation of responses to Generic Letter 88-20, Supplement 4, 'Individual Plant Examination - External Events' (IPEEE). This effort produced a Fire Risk Assessment methodology for operations at power that was used by the majority of U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs) in support of the IPEEE program and several NPPs overseas. Although these methods were acceptable for accomplishing the objectives of the IPEEE, EPRI and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) recognized that they required upgrades to support current requirements for risk-informed, performance-based (RI/PB) applications. In 2001, EPRI and the USNRC's Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) embarked on a cooperative project to improve the state-of-the-art in fire risk assessment to support a new risk-informed environment in fire protection. This project produced a consensus document, NUREG/CR-6850 (EPRI 1011989), entitled 'Fire PRA Methodology for Nuclear Power Facilities' which addressed fire risk for at power operations. NUREG/CR-6850 developed high level guidance on the process for identification and inclusion of human failure events (HFEs) into the fire PRA (FPRA), and a methodology for assigning quantitative screening values to these HFEs. It outlined the initial considerations of performance shaping factors (PSFs) and related fire effects that may need to be addressed in developing best-estimate human error probabilities (HEPs). However, NUREG/CR-6850 did not describe a methodology to develop best-estimate HEPs given the PSFs and the fire-related effects. In 2007, EPRI and RES embarked on another cooperative project to develop explicit guidance for estimating HEPs for human failure events under fire generated conditions, building upon existing human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. This document provides a methodology and guidance for conducting a fire HRA. This process includes identification and definition of post-fire human failure events, qualitative analysis, quantification, recovery, dependency, and uncertainty. This document provides three approaches to quantification: screening, scoping, and detailed HRA. Screening is based on the guidance in NUREG/CR-6850, with some additional guidance for scenarios with long time windows. Scoping is a new approach to quantification developed specifically to support the iterative nature of fire PRA quantification. Scoping is intended to provide less conservative HEPs than screening, but requires fewer resources than a detailed HRA analysis. For detailed HRA quantification, guidance has been developed on how to apply existing methods to assess post-fire fire HEPs.

  5. Reliability Analysis of Phased Mission Systems by the Considering the Sensitivity Analysis, Uncertainty and Common Cause Failure Analysis using the GO-FLOW Methodology

    Muhammad Hashim

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The reliability is the probability that a device will perform its required function under stated conditions for a specified period of time. The Common Cause Failure (CCFs is the multiple failures and has long been recognized (U.S. NRC, 1975 as an important issue in the Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has the important information for the evaluation of system reliability. In this study, two cases has been considered, in the first case, author have made the analysis of reliability of PWR safety system by GO-FLOW methodology alternatively to Fault Tree Analysis and Even Tree because it is success-oriented system analysis technique and comparatively easy to conduct the reliability analysis of the complex system. In the second case, sensitivity analysis has been made in order to prioritize the important parameters which have largest contribution to system reliability and also for common cause failure analysis and uncertainty analysis. For an example of phased mission system, PWR containment spray system has been considered.

  6. Reliability Analysis of Distribution Automation on Different Feeders

    V. Krishna Murthy

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Automating a distribution system is an effective means to provide a more reliable and economical system in the fast growing technological world. This paper delivers into automating a system using two- stage restoration (partial automation and put forward a feeder automation system based on substation automation platform that can be applied to electrical distribution systems for high economic-technical efficiency. Improved reliability is evaluated when feeder automation is applied to distribution. This paper studies three different feeders and decides on the most probable reliable feeder among them.

  7. Modeling cognition dynamics and its application to human reliability analysis

    For the past two decades, a number of approaches have been proposed for the identification and estimation of the likelihood of human errors, particularly for use in the risk and reliability studies of nuclear power plants. Despite the wide-spread use of the most popular among these methods, their fundamental weaknesses are widely recognized, and the treatment of human reliability has been considered as one of the soft spots of risk studies of large technological systems. To alleviate the situation, new efforts have focused on the development of human reliability models based on a more fundamental understanding of operator response and its cognitive aspects

  8. Reliability analysis based on losses from failure Modelling

    Dr. Amit Gupta , Renu Garg

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available As the cost of software application failures grows andas these failures increasingly impact business performance,software reliability will become progressively more important.Employing effective software reliability engineering techniquesto improve product and process reliability would be theindustry’s best interests as well as major challenges. As softwarecomplexity and software quality are highly related to softwarereliability, the measurements of software complexity and qualityattributes have been explored for early prediction of softwarereliability. Static as well as dynamic program complexitymeasurements have been collected, such as lines of code, numberof operators, relative program complexity, functional complexity,operational complexity, and so on. The complexity metrics can befurther included in software reliability models for earlyreliability prediction, for example, to predict the initial softwarefault density and failure rate.

  9. To what extent Fair Value is Fair, an Analysis of Reliability and Relevance of the Fair Value Accounting Paradigm.

    Dugarte, Rafael

    2006-01-01

    To what extent Fair Value is Fair, an Analysis of Reliability and Relevance of the Fair Value Accounting Paradigm. Rafael Dugarte Escalante September, 2006 Fair value accounting is fair and important for financial reporting in providing relevant, reliable, comparable and understandable information to the users depending on what kind of information is expected from it, and the way in which fair value is actually found. This study complemen...

  10. Reliability Analysis of Distribution Automation on Different Feeders

    V Krishna Murthy; Murthy, P. S. R.; C. Bhargava

    2011-01-01

    Automating a distribution system is an effective means to provide a more reliable and economical system in the fast growing technological world. This paper delivers into automating a system using two- stage restoration (partial automation) and put forward a feeder automation system based on substation automation platform that can be applied to electrical distribution systems for high economic-technical efficiency. Improved reliability is evaluated when feeder automation is applied to distribu...

  11. Mutation Analysis Approach to Develop Reliable Object-Oriented Software

    Monalisa Sarma

    2014-01-01

    In general, modern programs are large and complex and it is essential that they should be highly reliable in applications. In order to develop highly reliable software, Java programming language developer provides a rich set of exceptions and exception handling mechanisms. Exception handling mechanisms are intended to help developers build robust programs. Given a program with exception handling constructs, for an effective testing, we are to detect whether all possible exceptions are raised ...

  12. Reliability and Creep/Fatigue Analysis of a CMC Component

    Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Mital, Subodh K.; Gyekenyesi, John Z.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2007-01-01

    High temperature ceramic matrix composites (CMC) are being explored as viable candidate materials for hot section gas turbine components. These advanced composites can potentially lead to reduced weight and enable higher operating temperatures requiring less cooling; thus leading to increased engine efficiencies. There is a need for convenient design tools that can accommodate various loading conditions and material data with their associated uncertainties to estimate the minimum predicted life as well as the failure probabilities of a structural component. This paper presents a review of the life prediction and probabilistic analyses performed for a CMC turbine stator vane. A computer code, NASALife, is used to predict the life of a 2-D woven silicon carbide fiber reinforced silicon carbide matrix (SiC/SiC) turbine stator vane due to a mission cycle which induces low cycle fatigue and creep. The output from this program includes damage from creep loading, damage due to cyclic loading and the combined damage due to the given loading cycle. Results indicate that the trends predicted by NASALife are as expected for the loading conditions used for this study. In addition, a combination of woven composite micromechanics, finite element structural analysis and Fast Probability Integration (FPI) techniques has been used to evaluate the maximum stress and its probabilistic distribution in a CMC turbine stator vane. Input variables causing scatter are identified and ranked based upon their sensitivity magnitude. Results indicate that reducing the scatter in proportional limit strength of the vane material has the greatest effect in improving the overall reliability of the CMC vane.

  13. Guidelines for reliability analysis of control elements and systems of nuclear power plants

    The relationship is analysed between operating failures and the control system reliability. The procedure is defined of the reliability analysis of the control system for nuclear power plants from the qualitative and quantitative points of view. The preparation of input failure data for computations is assessed. Reliability computations for nuclear power plants in the Hungarian People's Republic are still in the initial stage. (Ha)

  14. Reliability model analysis and primary experimental evaluation of laser triggered pulse trigger

    High performance pulse trigger can enhance performance and stability of the PPS. It is necessary to evaluate the reliability of the LTGS pulse trigger, so we establish the reliability analysis model of this pulse trigger based on CARMES software, the reliability evaluation is accord with the statistical results. (authors)

  15. Intra-observer reliability in three-dimensional kinematic analysis of sacroiliac joint mobility.

    Rebello da Veiga, Thiago; Custódio da Silva, André; Gomes da Silva, Rodrigo Teixeira; Carvalho, Sandro Luiz Machado; Orsini, Marco; Silva, Júlio Guilherme

    2015-04-01

    [Purpose] Physical therapists, osteopathic practitioners, and chiropractors often perform manual tests to evaluate sacroiliac joint (SIJ) mobility. However, the available evidence demonstrates an absence of reliability in these tests and in investigations with kinematic analysis. The aim of this study was to verify the three-dimensional kinematic reliability in SIJ movement measurements. [Subjects] This cross-sectional study analyzed 24 healthy males, aged between 18 and 35 years. [Methods] Three-dimensional kinematic analysis was performed for measurements of posterior superior iliac displacement and greater trochanter (femur) displacement during hip flexion movement in an orthostatic position. The distance variations were measured from a reference point in 3 blocks. The intra-observer reliability was compared with the mean of three 3 blocks using the interclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and a 99% significance level. [Results] The measurements indicated a strong correlation among blocks: ICC = 0.94 for right side SIJ and ICC = 0.91 for left side SIJ. The mean displacement between the reference points was 7.7 mm on the right side and 8.5 mm on the left side. [Conclusion] Our results indicate that three-dimensional kinematic analysis can be used for SIJ mobility analyses. New studies should be performed for subjects with SIJ dysfunction to verify the effectiveness of this method. PMID:25995542

  16. Comparative Study and Analysis of Variability Tools

    Bhumula, Mahendra Reddy

    2013-01-01

    The dissertation provides a comparative analysis of a number of variability tools currently in use. It serves as a catalogue for practitioners interested in the topic. We compare a range of modelling, configuring, and management tools for product line engineering. The tools surveyed are compared against the following criteria: functional, non-functional, governance issues and Technical aspects. The outcome of the analysis is provided in tabular format.

  17. Reliability analysis of an RC defense structure loaded by a dense snow avalanche pressure signal

    Ousset, Isabelle; Bertrand, David; Limam, Ali; Naam, Mohamed

    2014-05-01

    To protect humans, roads or houses against snow avalanches, civil engineering structures are widely used. Designing these structures is still a challenge especially due to the uncertainties related to the loading developed by a snow avalanche. The case of the avalanche of Taconnaz (France), which occurred in 1999 and where important parts of the RC defense structure were destroyed, underlines the necessary to consider reliability approaches for the design of such structures. This paper proposes a reliability analysis of an L-shaped reinforced concrete (RC) protective structure subjected to a dense snow avalanche. A deterministic mechanical model, based on the finite element method, has been developed and allows describing the behavior of the structure. Next, a reliable model allows propagating uncertainties through the mechanical model and assessing the failure probability of the structure. The choices of random variables (the inputs) and their distributions, the failure criteria and the reliability methods are presented and discussed. Two criteria are considered: on the one hand, a local criterion defined in term of stress exceedence within concrete and steel, and on the other hand a global criterion defined in term of maximal displacement of the structure. Moreover, Kernel Smoothing and Monte-Carlo methods are used and compared to assess the failure probability and to derive fragility curves. These latter describe the failure probability of the structure according to the loading magnitude.

  18. Development of Markov model of emergency diesel generator for dynamic reliability analysis

    Jin, Young Ho; Choi, Sun Yeong; Yang, Joon Eon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea)

    1999-02-01

    The EDG (Emergency Diesal Generator) of nuclear power plant is one of the most important equipments in mitigating accidents. The FT (Fault Tree) method is widely used to assess the reliability of safety systems like an EDG in nuclear power plant. This method, however, has limitations in modeling dynamic features of safety systems exactly. We, hence, have developed a Markov model to represent the stochastic process of dynamic systems whose states change as time moves on. The Markov model enables us to develop a dynamic reliability model of EDG. This model can represent all possible states of EDG comparing to the FRANTIC code developed by U.S. NRC for the reliability analysis of standby systems. to access the regulation policy for test interval, we performed two simulations based on the generic data and plant specific data of YGN 3, respectively by using the developed model. We also estimate the effects of various repair rates and the fractions of starting failures by demand shock to the reliability of EDG. And finally, Aging effect is analyzed. (author). 23 refs., 19 figs., 9 tabs.

  19. Method of reliability allocation based on fault tree analysis and fuzzy math in nuclear power plants

    Reliability allocation is a kind of a difficult multi-objective optimization problem. It can not only be applied to determine the reliability characteristic of reactor systems, subsystem and main components but also be performed to improve the design, operation and maintenance of nuclear plants. The fuzzy math known as one of the powerful tools for fuzzy optimization and the fault analysis deemed to be one of the effective methods of reliability analysis can be applied to the reliability allocation model so as to work out the problems of fuzzy characteristic of some factors and subsystem's choice respectively in this paper. Thus we develop a failure rate allocation model on the basis of the fault tree analysis and fuzzy math. For the choice of the reliability constraint factors, we choose the six important ones according to practical need for conducting the reliability allocation. The subsystem selected by the top-level fault tree analysis is to avoid allocating reliability for all the equipment and components including the unnecessary parts. During the reliability process, some factors can be calculated or measured quantitatively while others only can be assessed qualitatively by the expert rating method. So we adopt fuzzy decision and dualistic contrast to realize the reliability allocation with the help of fault tree analysis. Finally the example of the emergency diesel generator's reliability allocation is used to illustrate reliability allocation model and improve this model simple and applicable. (authors)

  20. Failure analysis – basic step of applying Reliability Centered Maintenance in general aviation

    Martin BUGAJ

    2012-01-01

    Performing a reliability analysis on a product or system can actually include a number of different analyses to determine how reliable the product or system is. A reliability centered maintenance program consists of a set of scheduled tasks generated on the basis of specific reliability characteristics of the equipment they are designed to protect. Complex equipment is composed of a vast number of parts and assemblies. All these items can be expected to fail at one time or another, but some o...

  1. Preliminary analysis of shutdown system reliability of a gas graphite type reactor

    This work applies some Reliability Analysis tools the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), the Fault Tree, and the Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) - to study a shutdown system to a graphite reactor. The main goal of the present work is to provide means for identification of critical points of the system, and to enable a detailed study of safety analysis. (author)

  2. RADYBAN: A tool for reliability analysis of dynamic fault trees through conversion into dynamic Bayesian networks

    In this paper, we present RADYBAN (Reliability Analysis with DYnamic BAyesian Networks), a software tool which allows to analyze a dynamic fault tree relying on its conversion into a dynamic Bayesian network. The tool implements a modular algorithm for automatically translating a dynamic fault tree into the corresponding dynamic Bayesian network and exploits classical algorithms for the inference on dynamic Bayesian networks, in order to compute reliability measures. After having described the basic features of the tool, we show how it operates on a real world example and we compare the unreliability results it generates with those returned by other methodologies, in order to verify the correctness and the consistency of the results obtained

  3. Reliability analysis of the recirculation phase of the safety injection system of Angra-1

    The calculation of several reliability parameters-failure probability, unavailability and unreliability - of the recirculation phase of the safety injection system of Angra-1, was done. This system has two distinct modes of operation (short term and long term) which were fault tree analysed both separately and as a whole. To obtain quantitative results the computer codes SAMPLE and PRET-KITT were utilized. The former was used to consider the uncertainties in the failure data (drawn integrally from WASH-1400) and the latter to obtain time dependent unreliability values. Hardware failures and common-mode failures were considered. Altough the analysis methods employed here differ somewhat from those used in WASH-1400, the results which could be compared were found to have the order of magnitude. A viability study of some suggestions of system's modifications was performed, and it has shown that some significant reliability improvements can be achieved with reasonably simple changes. (Author)

  4. Multi-Level Simulated Fault Injection for Data Dependent Reliability Analysis of RTL Circuit Descriptions

    NIMARA, S.

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes data-dependent reliability evaluation methodology for digital systems described at Register Transfer Level (RTL. It uses a hybrid hierarchical approach, combining the accuracy provided by Gate Level (GL Simulated Fault Injection (SFI and the low simulation overhead required by RTL fault injection. The methodology comprises the following steps: the correct simulation of the RTL system, according to a set of input vectors, hierarchical decomposition of the system into basic RTL blocks, logic synthesis of basic RTL blocks, data-dependent SFI for the GL netlists, and RTL SFI. The proposed methodology has been validated in terms of accuracy on a medium sized circuit – the parallel comparator used in Check Node Unit (CNU of the Low-Density Parity-Check (LDPC decoders. The methodology has been applied for the reliability analysis of a 128-bit Advanced Encryption Standard (AES crypto-core, for which the GL simulation was prohibitive in terms of required computational resources.

  5. Stochastic Petri nets for the reliability analysis of communication network applications with alternate-routing

    In this paper, we present a comparative reliability analysis of an application on a corporate B-ISDN network under various alternate-routing protocols. For simple cases, the reliability problem can be cast into fault-tree models and solved rapidly by means of known methods. For more complex scenarios, state space (Markov) models are required. However, generation of large state space models can get very labor intensive and error prone. We advocate the use of stochastic reward nets (a variant of stochastic Petri nets) for the concise specification, automated generation and solution of alternate-routing protocols in networks. This paper is written in a tutorial style so as to make it accessible to a large audience

  6. Radionuclides in sediments - a comparative analysis, 1981

    On behalf of the BMI (Federal German Ministry of the Interior), the BfG in 1981 again started an interlaboratory comparison (among 42 measuring points) on the topic of radionuclides in sediments. The study was intended to test the reliability of G?, G?/R? measurements in sedimentary samples under practical conditions. The comparative analyses again revealed a number of error sources, and errors could be corrected. This was achieved not least by a good cooperation among the participating laboratories who contributed a.o. very useful information and ideas. (orig./HP)

  7. Reliability Analysis of Timber Structures through NDT Data Upgrading

    Sousa, Hlder; Srensen, John Dalsgaard; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    reliability calculation. In chapter 4, updating methods are conceptualized and defined. Special attention is drawn upon Bayesian methods and its implementation. Also a topic for updating based in inspection of deterioration is provided. State of the art definitions and proposed measurement indices for...... safety reassessment procedure. For that purpose a theoretical background for structural reliability assessment including probabilistic concepts for structural systems and stochastic models are given in chapter 3. System models, both series and parallel systems, are presented as well as methods for...... robustness are dealt in chapter 5. The second part of this document begins in chapter 6, where a practical application of the premise definitions and methodologies is given through the implementation of upgraded models with NDT and MDT data. Structural life-cycle is, therefore, assessed and reliability and...

  8. Reliability Analysis Multiple Redundancy Controller for Nuclear Safety Systems

    Son, Gwangseop; Kim, Donghoon; Son, Choulwoong [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-05-15

    This controller is configured for multiple modular redundancy (MMR) composed of dual modular redundancy (DMR) and triple modular redundancy (TMR). The architecture of MRC is briefly described, and the Markov model is developed. Based on the model, the reliability and Mean Time To Failure (MTTF) are analyzed. In this paper, the architecture of MRC for nuclear safety systems is described. The MRC is configured for multiple modular redundancy (MMR) composed of dual modular redundancy (DMR) and triple modular redundancy (TMR). Markov models for MRC architecture was developed, and then the reliability was analyzed by using the model. From the reliability analyses for the MRC, it is obtained that the failure rate of each module in the MRC should be less than 2 Χ 10{sup -4}/hour and the MTTF average increase rate depending on FCF increment, i. e. ΔMTTF/ΔFCF, is 4 months/0.1.

  9. Application of reliability analysis method to fusion component testing

    The term reliability here implies that a component satisfies a set of performance criteria while under specified conditions of use over a specified period of time. For fusion nuclear technology, the reliability goal to be pursued is the development of a mean time between failures (MTBF) for a component which is longer than its lifetime goal. While the component lifetime is mainly determined by the fluence limitation (i.e., damage level) which leads to performance degradation or failure, the MTBF represents an arithmetic average life of all units in a population. One method of assessing the reliability goal involves determining component availability needs to meet the goal plant availability, defining a test-analyze-fix development program to improve component reliability, and quantifying both test times and the number of test articles that would be required to ensure that a specified target MTBF is met. Statistically, constant failure rates and exponential life distributions are assumed for analyses and blanket component development is used as an example. However, as data are collected the probability distribution of the parameter of interest can be updated in a Bayesian fashion. The nuclear component testing program will be structured such that reliability requirements for DEMO can be achieved. The program shall not exclude the practice of a good design (such as reducing the complexity of the system to the minimum essential for the required operation), the execution of high quality manufacturing and inspection processes, and the implication of quality assurance and control for component development. In fact, the assurance of a high quality testing/development program is essential so that there is no question left for reliability

  10. Reliability analysis for LEB ring magnet power system in SSC

    The LEB ring magnet power system contains six subsystems, supervisory control, power supplies, regulation, DC bus, resonant cells, and fault sensing network. The system availability of the total LEB RMPS is required to be 0.999. The work in this paper is to allocate the overall LEB RMPS reliability requirement into reliability requirements for each of the subsystems and lower-tier items. The Feasibility-of-Objective technique combining with engineering experience is the key for the allocation. MIL-HDBK-217F is used to derate SCR components. 7 refs., 5 figs

  11. Technical information report: Plasma melter operation, reliability, and maintenance analysis

    Hendrickson, D.W. [ed.

    1995-03-14

    This document provides a technical report of operability, reliability, and maintenance of a plasma melter for low-level waste vitrification, in support of the Hanford Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Low-Level Waste (LLW) Vitrification Program. A process description is provided that minimizes maintenance and downtime and includes material and energy balances, equipment sizes and arrangement, startup/operation/maintence/shutdown cycle descriptions, and basis for scale-up to a 200 metric ton/day production facility. Operational requirements are provided including utilities, feeds, labor, and maintenance. Equipment reliability estimates and maintenance requirements are provided which includes a list of failure modes, responses, and consequences.

  12. Embedded mechatronic systems 1 analysis of failures, predictive reliability

    El Hami, Abdelkhalak

    2015-01-01

    In operation, mechatronics embedded systems are stressed by loads of different causes: climate (temperature, humidity), vibration, electrical and electromagnetic. These stresses in components which induce failure mechanisms should be identified and modeled for better control. AUDACE is a collaborative project of the cluster Mov'eo that address issues specific to mechatronic reliability embedded systems. AUDACE means analyzing the causes of failure of components of mechatronic systems onboard. The goal of the project is to optimize the design of mechatronic devices by reliability. The projec

  13. Technical information report: Plasma melter operation, reliability, and maintenance analysis

    This document provides a technical report of operability, reliability, and maintenance of a plasma melter for low-level waste vitrification, in support of the Hanford Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Low-Level Waste (LLW) Vitrification Program. A process description is provided that minimizes maintenance and downtime and includes material and energy balances, equipment sizes and arrangement, startup/operation/maintence/shutdown cycle descriptions, and basis for scale-up to a 200 metric ton/day production facility. Operational requirements are provided including utilities, feeds, labor, and maintenance. Equipment reliability estimates and maintenance requirements are provided which includes a list of failure modes, responses, and consequences

  14. Reliability modeling and analysis of smart power systems

    Karki, Rajesh; Verma, Ajit Kumar

    2014-01-01

    The volume presents the research work in understanding, modeling and quantifying the risks associated with different ways of implementing smart grid technology in power systems in order to plan and operate a modern power system with an acceptable level of reliability. Power systems throughout the world are undergoing significant changes creating new challenges to system planning and operation in order to provide reliable and efficient use of electrical energy. The appropriate use of smart grid technology is an important drive in mitigating these problems and requires considerable research acti

  15. Reliability engineering

    This book mentions importance and conception of reliability, product life cycle and reliability, historical background of reliability and application field of reliability. Next, it deals with basic probability distribution, criterion of reliability, function and system credulity, component importance, model in failure, analysis of failure, system analysis of repairable things, management of the best maintenance, analysis of life data and accelerated-life test. Every chapter has introduction and explanation of each theory.

  16. Exploratory factor analysis and reliability analysis with missing data: A simple method for SPSS users

    Bruce Weaver

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Missing data is a frequent problem for researchers conducting exploratory factor analysis (EFA or reliability analysis. The SPSS FACTOR procedure allows users to select listwise deletion, pairwise deletion or mean substitution as a method for dealing with missing data. The shortcomings of these methods are well-known. Graham (2009 argues that a much better way to deal with missing data in this context is to use a matrix of expectation maximization (EM covariances(or correlations as input for the analysis. SPSS users who have the Missing Values Analysis add-on module can obtain vectors ofEM means and standard deviations plus EM correlation and covariance matrices via the MVA procedure. But unfortunately, MVA has no /MATRIX subcommand, and therefore cannot write the EM correlations directly to a matrix dataset of the type needed as input to the FACTOR and RELIABILITY procedures. We describe two macros that (in conjunction with an intervening MVA command carry out the data management steps needed to create two matrix datasets, one containing EM correlations and the other EM covariances. Either of those matrix datasets can then be used asinput to the FACTOR procedure, and the EM correlations can also be used as input to RELIABILITY. We provide an example that illustrates the use of the two macros to generate the matrix datasets and how to use those datasets as input to the FACTOR and RELIABILITY procedures. We hope that this simple method for handling missing data will prove useful to both students andresearchers who are conducting EFA or reliability analysis.

  17. Reliability Analysis in Parallel and Distributed Systems with Network Contention

    Hussein EL Ghor

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper tackles the reliability problem of task allocation in heterogeneous distributed systems in the presence of network contention. A large number of scheduling heuristics has been presented in literature, but most of them target maximizing the system reliability without taking network contention delay into consideration. In this paper, we deal with a more realistic model for heterogeneous networks of workstations by taking network contention as an important factor in our study. Although network contention is not considered in task scheduling, yet it has a great effect on the execution time of a parallel program. In our work, we rely on the hybrid algorithm investigated in [8] but with a new system model that allows us to capture network contention. We first develop a mathematical model for reliability based on the unreliability cost function caused by the execution of tasks on the system processors and by the inter-processor communication link where network contention caused by the inter-processor communication time in the link is considered as the main constraint. We then propose an evaluation function that approximates the total completion time of a given assignment by taking into account communication delays caused by network contention. In order to demonstrate the benefits of our model, we evaluate it by means of simulation. We show the significant improved accuracy and reliability of the produced schedules.

  18. Reliability analysis of common hazardous waste treatment processes

    Five hazardous waste treatment processes are analyzed probabilistically using Monte Carlo simulation to elucidate the relationships between process safety factors and reliability levels. The treatment processes evaluated are packed tower aeration, reverse osmosis, activated sludge, upflow anaerobic sludge blanket, and activated carbon adsorption

  19. Windfarm Generation Assessment for ReliabilityAnalysis of Power Systems

    Negra, Nicola Barberis; Holmstrøm, Ole; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Sørensen, Poul

    2007-01-01

    Due to the fast development of wind generation in the past ten years, increasing interest has been paid to techniques for assessing different aspects of power systems with a large amount of installed wind generation. One of these aspects concerns power system reliability. Windfarm modelling plays a...

  20. Windfarm Generation Assessment for Reliability Analysis of Power Systems

    Barberis Negra, Nicola; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Holmstrøm, O.; Sørensen, P.

    2007-01-01

    Due to the fast development of wind generation in the past ten years, increasing interest has been paid to techniques for assessing different aspects of power systems with a large amount of installed wind generation. One of these aspects concerns power system reliability. Windfarm modelling plays a...

  1. Windfarm generation assessment for reliability analysis of power systems

    Negra, N.B.; Holmstrøm, O.; Bak-Jensen, B.; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar

    2007-01-01

    Due to the fast development of wind generation in the past ten years, increasing interest has been paid to techniques for assessing different aspects of power systems with a large amount of installed wind generation. One of these aspects concerns power system reliability. Windfarm modelling plays a...

  2. Reliability analysis of common hazardous waste treatment processes

    Waters, R.D. [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (United States)

    1993-05-01

    Five hazardous waste treatment processes are analyzed probabilistically using Monte Carlo simulation to elucidate the relationships between process safety factors and reliability levels. The treatment processes evaluated are packed tower aeration, reverse osmosis, activated sludge, upflow anaerobic sludge blanket, and activated carbon adsorption.

  3. Architecture-Based Reliability Analysis of Web Services

    Rahmani, Cobra Mariam

    2012-01-01

    In a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA), the hierarchical complexity of Web Services (WS) and their interactions with the underlying Application Server (AS) create new challenges in providing a realistic estimate of WS performance and reliability. The current approaches often treat the entire WS environment as a black-box. Thus, the sensitivity…

  4. Structural characterization of genomes by large scale sequence-structure threading: application of reliability analysis in structural genomics

    Brunham Robert C

    2004-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We establish that the occurrence of protein folds among genomes can be accurately described with a Weibull function. Systems which exhibit Weibull character can be interpreted with reliability theory commonly used in engineering analysis. For instance, Weibull distributions are widely used in reliability, maintainability and safety work to model time-to-failure of mechanical devices, mechanisms, building constructions and equipment. Results We have found that the Weibull function describes protein fold distribution within and among genomes more accurately than conventional power functions which have been used in a number of structural genomic studies reported to date. It has also been found that the Weibull reliability parameter β for protein fold distributions varies between genomes and may reflect differences in rates of gene duplication in evolutionary history of organisms. Conclusions The results of this work demonstrate that reliability analysis can provide useful insights and testable predictions in the fields of comparative and structural genomics.

  5. Reliability analysis of secondary shutdown system of RAPS - 3 and 4: findings and solution

    The purpose of Reliability Analysis is to validate system design, demonstrate adequacy of maintenance program and testing requirements by means of comparison of reliability analysis results of various safety systems with limiting values assumed in plant safety report. Fault tree analysis is the most widely used method for developing system models. The reliability analysis of Secondary Shutdown System (SSS), done at site has revealed many important facts, which necessitated change in trip logic circuitry to increase redundancy and thus reliability of the system. Also, based on this analysis, the surveillance testing frequency has been proposed to change to reduce the chances of wear and tear of SSS components. This paper describes the methodology adopted for reliability analysis of SSS, and discusses its findings and suggested remedies. (author)

  6. A study of annunciator response model application in human reliability analysis

    The Annunciator Response Model is a method introduced in 'Handbook of Human Reliability Analysis with Emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications'. It can be used to estimate the probability of noticing a particular annunciator or combination of annunciators and initiating action in response to them. No systematic study and application of the method has ever been performed in human reliability analysis (HRA) in China. In order to understand the method and its application effectively, first the basic theory of the Annunciator Response Model is described briefly, then some human error events presented in AP1000 HRA are analyzed with different HRA methods and the results are compared. Subsequently the applicability and comparability of the Annunciator Response Model in post-accident HRA are discussed. It is concluded that the Anunciator Response Model can preferably model the operators' responses to multiple annunciators, and the method can be applied to an engineering project in the case of diagnosis analysis of the post-accident events in responding to the cues without emphasis on excessive interpretation, judgment or decision-making. (authors)

  7. ERP Software Evaluation and Comparative Analysis

    Kalpic, Damir; Fertalj, Kresimir

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents the results of an investigation performed in 2001 under the title Comparative Analysis of Information Systems Software in Croatia. The focus was set on the comparative analysis of domestic and foreign Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) software, which is present in Croatia. The investigation was performed from the standpoint of ERP applicability, regardless of the development methods and information technology. In other words, the evaluation was performed primarily from th...

  8. The Impact Analysis of Psychological Reliability of Population Pilot Study for Selection of Particular Reliable Multi-Choice Item Test in Foreign Language Research Work

    Fazeli, Seyed Hossein

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of research described in the current study is the psychological reliability, its importance, application, and more to investigate on the impact analysis of psychological reliability of population pilot study for selection of particular reliable multi-choice item test in foreign language research work. The population for subject…

  9. Comparative analysis of seismic risk assessment methodology

    SRA methodologies are separated into SPSA and SMM. SPSA methodology that has been widely used for seismic risk analysis has two kinds of methodologies such as Zion method and SSMRP method. SPSA methodology is suitable to interfacing with the analysis of internal event. However, the results of SPSA have uncertainties because of uncertainties in seismic hazard analysis and subjective judgement. Zion method specially developed for commercial use is less expensive and less time consuming but more uncertain than SSMRP method, since the former performs the fragility analysis less in detail than the latter. SMM is impossible to interface with the analysis of internal event but the uncertainties that are occurred during seismic hazard analysis is reduced because of the screening using RLE (review level earthquake). Therefore, if SPSA-based SMM methodology is chosen to be developed, the results of SRA will be more reliable and it requires low costs and time. In addition, the new methodology will require the development of a new evaluating code for SRA. (Author) 26 refs., 25 figs., 16 tabs

  10. Learning effect of isokinetic measurements in healthy subjects, and reliability and comparability of Biodex and Lido dynamometers

    Lund, Hans; Søndergaard, K; Zachariassen, T; Christensen, R; Bülow, P; Henriksen, Marius; Bartels, E M; Danneskiold-Samsøe, B; Bliddal, H

    2005-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the learning effect during a set of isokinetic measurements, to evaluate the reliability of the Biodex System 3 PRO dynamometer, and to compare the Biodex System 3 PRO and the Lido Active dynamometers on both extension and flexion over the elbow and the knee at...... interval. When comparing the first five measurements (Biodex), no systematic effect over time and an excellent reliability were found with respect to elbow and knee flexion and extension. No difference in muscle strength (Nm) between the Biodex and Lido was observed for knee flexion (P = 0.59), knee...... extension (P = 0.18) and elbow extension (P = 0.63). However, elbow flexion showed a 14.8% (95% CI: 11.2-18.4%; P = 0.0001)higher peak torque on Biodex. In conclusion, no learning effect was observed and the Biodex proved to be a highly reliable isokinetic dynamometer. A difference was observed when...

  11. Development of RBDGG Solver and Its Application to System Reliability Analysis

    For the purpose of making system reliability analysis easier and more intuitive, RBDGG (Reliability Block diagram with General Gates) methodology was introduced as an extension of the conventional reliability block diagram. The advantage of the RBDGG methodology is that the structure of a RBDGG model is very similar to the actual structure of the analyzed system, and therefore the modeling of a system for system reliability and unavailability analysis becomes very intuitive and easy. The main idea of the development of the RBDGG methodology is similar with that of the development of the RGGG (Reliability Graph with General Gates) methodology, which is an extension of a conventional reliability graph. The newly proposed methodology is now implemented into a software tool, RBDGG Solver. RBDGG Solver was developed as a WIN32 console application. RBDGG Solver receives information on the failure modes and failure probabilities of each component in the system, along with the connection structure and connection logics among the components in the system. Based on the received information, RBDGG Solver automatically generates a system reliability analysis model for the system, and then provides the analysis results. In this paper, application of RBDGG Solver to the reliability analysis of an example system, and verification of the calculation results are provided for the purpose of demonstrating how RBDGG Solver is used for system reliability analysis

  12. Reliability importance analysis of Markovian systems at steady state using perturbation analysis

    Sensitivity analysis has been primarily defined for static systems, i.e. systems described by combinatorial reliability models (fault or event trees). Several structural and probabilistic measures have been proposed to assess the components importance. For dynamic systems including inter-component and functional dependencies (cold spare, shared load, shared resources, etc.), and described by Markov models or, more generally, by discrete events dynamic systems models, the problem of sensitivity analysis remains widely open. In this paper, the perturbation method is used to estimate an importance factor, called multi-directional sensitivity measure, in the framework of Markovian systems. Some numerical examples are introduced to show why this method offers a promising tool for steady-state sensitivity analysis of Markov processes in reliability studies

  13. Comparative analysis of some magnetic sensors

    Gambetta, M..; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Carmisciano, C.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Caratori Tontini, F.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Cocchi, L.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Muccini, F.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia

    2008-01-01

    This paper shows the results of a comparative analysis of 5 magnetometer in order to evaluate the performance of the new Marine Magnetics SeaSPY Overhauser probe. The test was performed at INGV Geomagnetic Observatory in Preturo(L’Aquila, Italy). Both qualitative and quantitative analysis has been carried out.

  14. Reliability Analysis and Standardization of Spacecraft Command Generation Processes

    Meshkat, Leila; Grenander, Sven; Evensen, Ken

    2011-01-01

    center dot In order to reduce commanding errors that are caused by humans, we create an approach and corresponding artifacts for standardizing the command generation process and conducting risk management during the design and assurance of such processes. center dot The literature review conducted during the standardization process revealed that very few atomic level human activities are associated with even a broad set of missions. center dot Applicable human reliability metrics for performing these atomic level tasks are available. center dot The process for building a "Periodic Table" of Command and Control Functions as well as Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) models is demonstrated. center dot The PRA models are executed using data from human reliability data banks. center dot The Periodic Table is related to the PRA models via Fault Links.

  15. Reliability Analysis of Public Survey in Satisfaction with Nuclear Safety

    Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety (KINS) carried out a questionnaire survey on public's understanding nuclear safety and regulation in order to grasp public acceptance for nuclear energy. The survey was planned to help to analyze public opinion on nuclear energy and provide basic data for advertising strategy and policy development. In this study, based on results of the survey, the reliability of the survey was evaluated according to each nuclear site

  16. Analysis of Gumbel Model for Software Reliability Using Bayesian Paradigm

    Raj Kumar; Ashwini Kumar Srivastava; Vijay Kumar

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we have illustrated the suitability of Gumbel Model for software reliability data. The model parameters are estimated using likelihood based inferential procedure: classical as well as Bayesian. The quasi Newton-Raphson algorithm is applied to obtain the maximum likelihood estimates and associated probability intervals. The Bayesian estimates of the parameters of Gumbel model are obtained using Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC) simulation method in OpenBUGS(established software fo...

  17. Intrinsic Geometric Analysis of the Network Reliability and Voltage Stability

    Gupta, N; Bellucci, S

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents the intrinsic geometric model for the solution of power system planning and its operation. This problem is large-scale and nonlinear, in general. Thus, we have developed the intrinsic geometric model for the network reliability and voltage stability, and examined it for the IEEE 5 bus system. The robustness of the proposed model is illustrated by introducing variations of the network parameters. Exact analytical results show the accuracy as well as the efficiency of the proposed solution technique.

  18. Intrinsic Geometric Analysis of the Network Reliability and Voltage Stability

    Gupta, N.; Tiwari, B. N.; Bellucci, S

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents the intrinsic geometric model for the solution of power system planning and its operation. This problem is large-scale and nonlinear, in general. Thus, we have developed the intrinsic geometric model for the network reliability and voltage stability, and examined it for the IEEE 5 bus system. The robustness of the proposed model is illustrated by introducing variations of the network parameters. Exact analytical results show the accuracy as well as the efficiency of the pr...

  19. ANALYSIS OF INDICATORS OF RELIABILITY OF ELECTRICAL NETWORKS

    Popescu V.

    2012-01-01

    Problems of the optimization reliability in electrical networks of the different class of voltage have probabilistic nature, they discretely change and depend on the number of factors both definite and indefinite and have importance by selection of electric equipment, graph of development of electrical networks and voltage levels. The definition of the major factors, which have determining significance on their value and speed of their change allow to elaborate methods of their optimization a...

  20. The Barthel Index: comparing inter-rater reliability between nurses and doctors in an older adult rehabilitation unit.

    Hartigan, Irene

    2011-02-01

    To ensure accuracy in recording the Barthel Index (BI) in older people, it is essential to determine who is best placed to administer the index. The aim of this study was to compare doctors\\' and nurses\\' reliability in scoring the BI.

  1. Comparability and Reliability of Paper- and Computer-Based Measures of Psychosocial Constructs for Adolescent Physical Activity and Sedentary Behaviors

    Norman, Gregory J.; Sallis, James F.; Gaskins, Ronnesia

    2005-01-01

    This study assessed the comparability and reliability of paper-based and computer-based administration of psychosocial construct measures related to adolescents engaging in physical activity and sedentary behaviors. Adolescents (n = 76; 55% girls, 49% Hispanic, 18% non-Hispanic-white; M age = 13 years) completed measures of behavior change…

  2. Wind energy Computerized Maintenance Management System (CMMS) : data collection recommendations for reliability analysis.

    Peters, Valerie A.; Ogilvie, Alistair B.

    2012-01-01

    This report addresses the general data requirements for reliability analysis of fielded wind turbines and other wind plant equipment. The report provides a rationale for why this data should be collected, a list of the data needed to support reliability and availability analysis, and specific data recommendations for a Computerized Maintenance Management System (CMMS) to support automated analysis. This data collection recommendations report was written by Sandia National Laboratories to address the general data requirements for reliability analysis of operating wind turbines. This report is intended to help develop a basic understanding of the data needed for reliability analysis from a Computerized Maintenance Management System (CMMS) and other data systems. The report provides a rationale for why this data should be collected, a list of the data needed to support reliability and availability analysis, and specific recommendations for a CMMS to support automated analysis. Though written for reliability analysis of wind turbines, much of the information is applicable to a wider variety of equipment and analysis and reporting needs. The 'Motivation' section of this report provides a rationale for collecting and analyzing field data for reliability analysis. The benefits of this type of effort can include increased energy delivered, decreased operating costs, enhanced preventive maintenance schedules, solutions to issues with the largest payback, and identification of early failure indicators.

  3. Mapping Green Spaces in Bishkek—How Reliable can Spatial Analysis Be?

    Peter Hofmann

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Within urban areas, green spaces play a critically important role in the quality of life. They have remarkable impact on the local microclimate and the regional climate of the city. Quantifying the ‘greenness’ of urban areas allows comparing urban areas at several levels, as well as monitoring the evolution of green spaces in urban areas, thus serving as a tool for urban and developmental planning. Different categories of vegetation have different impacts on recreation potential and microclimate, as well as on the individual perception of green spaces. However, when quantifying the ‘greenness’ of urban areas the reliability of the underlying information is important in order to qualify analysis results. The reliability of geo-information derived from remote sensing data is usually assessed by ground truth validation or by comparison with other reference data. When applying methods of object based image analysis (OBIA and fuzzy classification, the degrees of fuzzy membership per object in general describe to what degree an object fits (prototypical class descriptions. Thus, analyzing the fuzzy membership degrees can contribute to the estimation of reliability and stability of classification results, even when no reference data are available. This paper presents an object based method using fuzzy class assignments to outline and classify three different classes of vegetation from GeoEye imagery. The classification result, its reliability and stability are evaluated using the reference-free parameters Best Classification Result and Classification Stability as introduced by Benz et al. in 2004 and implemented in the software package eCognition (www.ecognition.com. To demonstrate the application potentials of results a scenario for quantifying urban ‘greenness’ is presented.

  4. Spacecraft attitude control subsystem: Reliability, multi-state analyses, and comparative failure behavior in LEO and GEO

    Wayer, Jessica K.; Castet, Jean-Francois; Saleh, Joseph H.

    2013-04-01

    The attitude control subsystem (ACS) on board a 3-axis stabilized spacecraft is critical for on-orbit operations; its degradation can significantly disrupt mission performance, and its failure is fatal to the spacecraft. An ACS that fails early on-orbit, for example in the first couple of years on a spacecraft with a 15-year design lifetime, results in significant losses to all stakeholders and constitutes a major financial blow to the satellite operator or insurer—losses can amount to a few hundred mission dollars. Understanding and preventing/mitigating ACS failure is an engineering and financial imperative. In this work, we first provide a comprehensive statistical analysis of ACS failure behavior on orbit. The results indicate that the ACS is a major driver of spacecraft unreliability and contributes up to 20% of all spacecraft failures. Nonparametric and parametric results, including mixture Weibull distributions, are provided for ACS reliability, and they are complemented with the subsystem's multi-state failure analysis. It is shown for example that the ACS is 89% likely to be fully operational after 15 years on-orbit. Results also demonstrate that ACS suffers from both infant mortality and wear-out failures. The findings are important for satellite manufacturers and equipment providers as they indicate opportunities for improved ground testing and burn-in procedures for the ACS, and they highlight the need to consider additional redundancy, even in stand-by form, especially if increased spacecraft design lifetime is sought. Second, we conduct a comparative analysis of failure behavior of the ACS in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and Geosynchronous orbit (GEO). The results demonstrate a marked difference in failure behavior in LEO and GEO: the ACS degrades and fails more frequently, harder (more severe anomalies), and earlier (more infant anomalies/failures) in LEO than in GEO. We expand on these results and conclude with hypotheses for causal factors of this difference in failure behavior.

  5. A survey on reliability and safety analysis techniques of robot systems in nuclear power plants

    The reliability and safety analysis techniques was surveyed for the purpose of overall quality improvement of reactor inspection system which is under development in our current project. The contents of this report are : 1. Reliability and safety analysis techniques suvey - Reviewed reliability and safety analysis techniques are generally accepted techniques in many industries including nuclear industry. And we selected a few techniques which are suitable for our robot system. They are falut tree analysis, failure mode and effect analysis, reliability block diagram, markov model, combinational method, and simulation method. 2. Survey on the characteristics of robot systems which are distinguished from other systems and which are important to the analysis. 3. Survey on the nuclear environmental factors which affect the reliability and safety analysis of robot system 4. Collection of the case studies of robot reliability and safety analysis which are performed in foreign countries. The analysis results of this survey will be applied to the improvement of reliability and safety of our robot system and also will be used for the formal qualification and certification of our reactor inspection system

  6. A survey on reliability and safety analysis techniques of robot systems in nuclear power plants

    Eom, H.S.; Kim, J.H.; Lee, J.C.; Choi, Y.R.; Moon, S.S

    2000-12-01

    The reliability and safety analysis techniques was surveyed for the purpose of overall quality improvement of reactor inspection system which is under development in our current project. The contents of this report are : 1. Reliability and safety analysis techniques suvey - Reviewed reliability and safety analysis techniques are generally accepted techniques in many industries including nuclear industry. And we selected a few techniques which are suitable for our robot system. They are falut tree analysis, failure mode and effect analysis, reliability block diagram, markov model, combinational method, and simulation method. 2. Survey on the characteristics of robot systems which are distinguished from other systems and which are important to the analysis. 3. Survey on the nuclear environmental factors which affect the reliability and safety analysis of robot system 4. Collection of the case studies of robot reliability and safety analysis which are performed in foreign countries. The analysis results of this survey will be applied to the improvement of reliability and safety of our robot system and also will be used for the formal qualification and certification of our reactor inspection system.

  7. Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) Analysis of NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC) Flight Termination System and Power Supply

    Morehouse, Dennis V.

    2006-01-01

    In order to perform public risk analyses for vehicles containing Flight Termination Systems (FTS), it is necessary for the analyst to know the reliability of each of the components of the FTS. These systems are typically divided into two segments; a transmitter system and associated equipment, typically in a ground station or on a support aircraft, and a receiver system and associated equipment on the target vehicle. This analysis attempts to analyze the reliability of the NASA DFRC flight termination system ground transmitter segment for use in the larger risk analysis and to compare the results against two established Department of Defense availability standards for such equipment.

  8. Reliability of the ATD Angle in Dermatoglyphic Analysis.

    Brunson, Emily K; Hohnan, Darryl J; Giovas, Christina M

    2015-09-01

    The "ATD" angle is a dermatoglyphic trait formed by drawing lines between the triradii below the first and last digits and the most proximal triradius on the hypothenar region of the palm. This trait has been widely used in dermatoglyphic studies, but several researchers have questioned its utility, specifically whether or not it can be measured reliably. The purpose of this research was to examine the measurement reliability of this trait. Finger and palm prints were taken using the carbon paper and tape method from the right and left hands of 100 individuals. Each "ATD" angle was read twice, at different times, by Reader A, using a goniometer and a magnifying glass, and three times by a Reader B, using Adobe Photoshop. Inter-class correlation coefficients were estimated for the intra- and inter-reader measurements of the "ATD" angles. Reader A was able to quantify ATD angles on 149 out of 200 prints (74.5%), and Reader B on 179 out of 200 prints (89.5%). Both readers agreed on whether an angle existed on a print 89.8% of the time for the right hand and 78.0% for the left. Intra-reader correlations were 0.97 or greater for both readers. Inter-reader correlations for "ATD" angles measured by both readers ranged from 0.92 to 0.96. These results suggest that the "ATD" angle can be measured reliably, and further imply that measurement using a software program may provide an advantage over other methods. PMID:26898084

  9. Mathematical modeling and reliability analysis of a 3D Li-ion battery

    RICHARD HONG PENG LIANG

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The three-dimensional (3D Li-ion battery presents an effective solution to issues affecting its two-dimensional counterparts, as it is able to attain high energy capacities for the same areal footprint without sacrificing power density. A 3D battery has key structural features extending in and fully utilizing 3D space, allowing it to achieve greater reliability and longevity. This study applies an electrochemical-thermal coupled model to a checkerboard array of alternating positive and negative electrodes in a 3D architecture with either square or circular electrodes. The mathematical model comprises the transient conservation of charge, species, and energy together with electroneutrality, constitutive relations and relevant initial and boundary conditions. A reliability analysis carried out to simulate malfunctioning of either a positive or negative electrode reveals that although there are deviations in electrochemical and thermal behavior for electrodes adjacent to the malfunctioning electrode as compared to that in a fully-functioning array, there is little effect on electrodes further away, demonstrating the redundancy that a 3D electrode array provides. The results demonstrate that implementation of 3D batteries allow it to reliably and safely deliver power even if a component malfunctions, a strong advantage over conventional 2D batteries.

  10. Reliability analysis of time series force plate data of community dwelling older adults.

    Bauer, Christoph; Grger, Ines; Rupprecht, Roland; Meichtry, Andr; Tibesku, Carsten Oliver; Gassmann, Karl-Gnter

    2010-01-01

    Frequency-based analysis of body sway has been used to distinguish between healthy young, healthy elderly adults and elderly adults with Huntingtons disease. Our aim was to assess the reliability of spectral-based outcomes of the centre of pressure (CoP) kinematics in order to determine if these outcomes could be tested for their capability to distinguish between elderly fallers and non-fallers in a future study. We have studied balance for 30 community dwelling healthy older adults 60 years or older. Four test conditions were used. Three successive trials were performed for each condition. CoP kinematics were estimated with a force platform with three strain gauges set in a triangular position. The frequency content of these signals was estimated. Intrasession correlation coefficients (ICC's) were then calculated for all test conditions. The reliability of the selected parameters varied between low and high (ICC 0.652-0.939). The ICC's for the narrow stance tests were higher compared to tests with normal standing conditions (0.771-0.94) to (0.652-0.865). The highest value was obtained in the high frequency band (0.939). These measures should be viewed with caution when screening geriatric patients because their reliability cannot always be assumed. PMID:20153904

  11. Reliability analysis of digital instrumentation and control systems

    The NUREG-CR/6942 technical report proposed a Markov state transition model for the main feedwater valve (MFV) controller system as part of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of Digital Feedwater Control System (DFWCS). The proposed model extends the Markov model to allow the use of non-exponential distribution in the time to next output of the controller system responsible for maintaining the water level. This case study demonstrates the general application of semi-Markov process model for digital instrumentation and control systems. System failure probability and mission reliability measures are determined. (author)

  12. Failure Analysis Methods for Reliability Improvement of Electronic Sensors

    Swajeeth Pilot. Panchangam

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper has documented the common failuremodes of electronic sensors. The effects of failure modes arestudied in detail and these are classified based on their criticalityand probability of occurrence. Methods for taking correctiveactions for eliminating the occurrence of various failure modesare also proposed. The paper also addresses FRACAS method andits effectiveness for reliability studies of sensors based on the realfailure modes observed in practice. It is understood that thedesigner has an important role in elimination of the failure modesat the design stage itself. This is expected to result in reliabilitygrowth of sensor systems used in many critical systems such asspace applications, nuclear power plants, and chemical industriesetc.

  13. Reliability Analysis of Systems with Time-Varying Failure Rates

    Moustafa Magdi S.

    2001-01-01

    A non-homogeneous Markov model is used to obtain closed form solutions of the state probabilities and the reliability of M modules in series where each module has N m components in parallel. The components have exponential time-varying failure rates which depend on the module. If the failure rates are independent of the modules the results are extended to a K-out-of-N:G system and series-parallel. Examples of assuming the Weibull distributions are presented to illustrate the results.

  14. ANALYSIS OF INDICATORS OF RELIABILITY OF ELECTRICAL NETWORKS

    Popescu V.

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Problems of the optimization reliability in electrical networks of the different class of voltage have probabilistic nature, they discretely change and depend on the number of factors both definite and indefinite and have importance by selection of electric equipment, graph of development of electrical networks and voltage levels. The definition of the major factors, which have determining significance on their value and speed of their change allow to elaborate methods of their optimization and to elaborate effective methods of their growth limitation in electrical networks with the different class of voltage.

  15. Acquisition and statistical analysis of reliability data for I and C parts in plant protection system

    Lim, T. J.; Byun, S. S.; Han, S. H.; Lee, H. J.; Lim, J. S.; Oh, S. J.; Park, K. Y.; Song, H. S. [Soongsil Univ., Seoul (Korea)

    2001-04-01

    This project has been performed in order to construct I and C part reliability databases for detailed analysis of plant protection system and to develop a methodology for analysing trip set point drifts. Reliability database for the I and C parts of plant protection system is required to perform the detailed analysis. First, we have developed an electronic part reliability prediction code based on MIL-HDBK-217F. Then we have collected generic reliability data for the I and C parts in plant protection system. Statistical analysis procedure has been developed to process the data. Then the generic reliability database has been constructed. We have also collected plant specific reliability data for the I and C parts in plant protection system for YGN 3,4 and UCN 3,4 units. Plant specific reliability database for I and C parts has been developed by the Bayesian procedure. We have also developed an statistical analysis procedure for set point drift, and performed analysis of drift effects for trip set point. The basis for the detailed analysis can be provided from the reliability database for the PPS I and C parts. The safety of the KSNP and succeeding NPPs can be proved by reducing the uncertainty of PSA. Economic and efficient operation of NPP can be possible by optimizing the test period to reduce utility's burden. 14 refs., 215 figs., 137 tabs. (Author)

  16. Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis of Cast Iron Water Pipes for Agricultural Food Irrigation

    Yanling Ni

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to investigate the reliability and sensitivity of cast iron water pipes for agricultural food irrigation. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used for fracture assessment and reliability analysis of cast iron pipes for agricultural food irrigation. Fracture toughness is considered as a limit state function for corrosion affected cast iron pipes. Then the influence of failure mode on the probability of pipe failure has been discussed. Sensitivity analysis also is carried out to show the effect of changing basic parameters on the reliability and life time of the pipe. The analysis results show that the applied methodology can consider different random variables for estimating of life time of the pipe and it can also provide scientific guidance for rehabilitation and maintenance plans for agricultural food irrigation. In addition, the results of the failure and reliability analysis in this study can be useful for designing of more reliable new pipeline systems for agricultural food irrigation.

  17. Development of Reliability Analysis Method for Nuclear Power Plant Protection System

    The paper presents a method and procedures for the reliability analysis of safety related nuclear power plant systems. The analysis provides an appropriate model to represent the system that will facilitate the applications of reliability engineering techniques during the design, construction and operating stages of a plant's life. The analysis assists in selecting design alternatives with high reliability and high safety potential during early design phase. It also ensures that all conceivable failure modes and their effects on operational success of the system have been considered. The output of the analysis is to be used as inputs to determine and to update the test interval of the system

  18. A New Method for System Reliability Analysis of Tailings Dam Stability

    Liu, X.; Tang, H.; Xiong, C.; Ni, W.

    2012-12-01

    For the purpose of stability evaluation, a tailings dam can be considered as an artificial slope made of special soil materials which mainly come from mine tailings. As a particular engineering project, a tailings dam generally has experienced multi-loop hydraulic sediments as well as a long-term consolidation in the process of construction. The characteristics of sediment and consolidation result in a unique distribution of the soil layers with significant uncertainties, which come from both nature development and various human activities, and thus cause the discrete and the variability of the physical-mechanical properties dramatically greater than the natural geo-materials. Therefore, the location of critical slip surface (CSS) of the dam usually presents a notable drift. So, it means that the reliability evaluation task for a tailings dam is a system reliability problem indeed. Unfortunately, the previous research of reliability of tailings dam was mainly confined to the limit equilibrium method (LEM), which has three obvious drawbacks. First, it just focused on the variability along the slip surface rather than the whole space of the dam. Second, a fixed CSS, instead of variable one, was concerned in most cases. Third, the shape of the CSS was usually simplified to a circular. The present paper tried to construct a new reliability analysis model combined with several advanced techniques involving finite difference method (FDM), Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), support vector machine (SVM) and particle swarm optimization (PSO). The new framework was consisted of four modules. The first one is the limit equilibrium finite difference mode, which employed the FLAC3D code to generate stress fields and then used PSO algorithm to search the location of CSS and corresponding minimum factor of safety (FOS). The most value of this module was that each realization of stress field would lead to a particular CSS and its FOS. In other words, the consideration of the drift of CSS was significant to system reliability analysis. Besides, the CSS was described with non-circular shape, which was much more superior to the circular one. Moreover, compare with the LEM, the numerical method has the ability to reflect the variability in a whole space of the dam. The second one is the orthogonal design modules aimed to generate high-quality training samples according to the variability of soil layers. The third one is the response surface model based on SVM, which was designed to obtain the explicit performance function through the well-prepared training samples. The fourth one is the MCS model, which can perform steady and effective reliability analysis through the explicit performance function. As a result, a new approach for reliability analysis of tailings dam stability was presented. As a case study, the Yong-ping Copper Mine Tailings Dam in Jiangxi Province of China was analyzed in detail by this new method. It was shown that the effectiveness of the new method is considerable. In sum, this research is geared towards providing new ideas and available examples for future reliability assessment of tailings dam stability.

  19. On Bayesian reliability analysis with informative priors and censoring

    In the statistical literature many methods have been presented to deal with censored observations, both within the Bayesian and non-Bayesian frameworks, and such methods have been successfully applied to, e.g., reliability problems. Also, in reliability theory it is often emphasized that, through shortage of statistical data and possibilities for experiments, one often needs to rely heavily on judgements of engineers, or other experts, for which means Bayesian methods are attractive. It is therefore important that such judgements can be elicited easily to provide informative prior distributions that reflect the knowledge of the engineers well. In this paper we focus on this aspect, especially on the situation that the judgements of the consulted engineers are based on experiences in environments where censoring has also been present previously. We suggest the use of the attractive interpretation of hyperparameters of conjugate prior distributions when these are available for assumed parametric models for lifetimes, and we show how one may go beyond the standard conjugate priors, using similar interpretations of hyper-parameters, to enable easier elicitation when censoring has been present in the past. This may even lead to more flexibility for modelling prior knowledge than when using standard conjugate priors, whereas the disadvantage of more complicated calculations that may be needed to determine posterior distributions play a minor role due to the advanced mathematical and statistical software that is widely available these days

  20. Reliability analysis of the solar array based on Fault Tree Analysis

    The solar array is an important device used in the spacecraft, which influences the quality of in-orbit operation of the spacecraft and even the launches. This paper analyzes the reliability of the mechanical system and certifies the most vital subsystem of the solar array. The fault tree analysis (FTA) model is established according to the operating process of the mechanical system based on DFH-3 satellite; the logical expression of the top event is obtained by Boolean algebra and the reliability of the solar array is calculated. The conclusion shows that the hinges are the most vital links between the solar arrays. By analyzing the structure importance(SI) of the hinge's FTA model, some fatal causes, including faults of the seal, insufficient torque of the locking spring, temperature in space, and friction force, can be identified. Damage is the initial stage of the fault, so limiting damage is significant to prevent faults. Furthermore, recommendations for improving reliability associated with damage limitation are discussed, which can be used for the redesigning of the solar array and the reliability growth planning.

  1. Reliability analysis of the inspection by a man and a robot for the maintenance of a nuclear power plant

    The tour inspection or the walk-around inspection is very important for safe and reliable operation of a nuclear power plant. The inspection has been mainly carried out by a man. The reliability analysis of the inspectors has, however, not been well studied compared with that of the reactor operators. The inspection has relatively passive nature in contrast with the operation. Also the probability of finding anything wrong is very low due to the low failure rate of the inspected apparatus. In this paper, the reliability of a tour inspector is analysed using probabilistic network models. Robots are being developed for the inspection. The reliability of the inspection by a robot, a man and their combination is also analysed

  2. Markovian reliability analysis under uncertainty with an application on the shutdown system of the Clinch River Breeder Reactor

    A methodology for the assessment of the uncertainties about the reliability of nuclear reactor systems described by Markov models is developed, and the uncertainties about the probability of loss of coolable core geometry (LCG) of the Clinch River Breeder Reactor (CRBR) due to shutdown system failures, are assessed. Uncertainties are expressed by assuming the failure rates, the repair rates and all other input variables of reliability analysis as random variables, distributed according to known probability density functions (pdf). The pdf of the reliability is then calculated by the moment matching technique. Two methods have been employed for the determination of the moments of the reliability: the Monte Carlo simulation; and the Taylor-series expansion. These methods are adopted to Markovian problems and compared for accuracy and efficiency

  3. An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Criticality, Complexity and Organisational Influence on Software Reliability

    Paul Bowen

    2000-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper is motivated by a desire to improve software reliability, in particular, the reliability of software that impacts the operational and financial viability of organisations. We examine the effects of Criticality, Complexity, and Organisational Influence on information systems reliability. Questionnaires were used to gather quantitative data for statistical analysis. Post-hoc in-depth interviews were used to help explain results of the statistical analysis. Surprisingly, no associations were observed between Reliability and Criticality or between Reliability and Complexity. A positive relationship was found, however, between system Reliability and Organisational Influence. The interviews indicated that organisations mitigated the potential negative effects of Complexity through additional planning, and achieved more reliable software by assigning more competent project managers They managed Criticality by assigning more competent project managers to more critical systems. The significant relationship between system Reliability and Organisational Influence indicates that IS managers respond to internal political pressures. This result implies that senior management should take steps to ensure that excessive Organisational Influence does not cause IS managers to misallocate resources. For example, for each major project, the IS steering committee can determine the desired level of reliability, appoint project mangers with the appropriate skill set, and periodically communicate with these project managers about the activities used to achieve each system's desired level of reliability.

  4. Significance Test of Reliability Evaluation with Three-parameter Weibull Distribution Based on Grey Relational Analysis

    Xintao Xia; Yantao Shang; Yinping Jin; Long Chen

    2013-01-01

    With the aid of the grey system theory, the grey relational analysis of the reliability with the three-parameter Weibull distribution is made for the Weibull parameter evaluation and its significance test. Via the theoretical value set and the experimental value set of the reliability relied on the lifetime data of a product, the model of the constrained optimization of the Weibull parameter evaluation based on the maximum grey relational grade. The grey significance of the reliability functi...

  5. Application of reliability analysis methods to the comparison of two safety circuits

    Two circuits of different design, intended for assuming the ''Low Pressure Safety Injection'' function in PWR reactors are analyzed using reliability methods. The reliability analysis of these circuits allows the failure trees to be established and the failure probability derived. The dependence of these results on test use and maintenance is emphasized as well as critical paths. The great number of results obtained may allow a well-informed choice taking account of the reliability wanted for the type of circuits

  6. Analysis of the reliability of pipes and pressure vessels at atomic electric power plants

    Klemin, A.I.; Shiverskii, E.A.

    1979-10-01

    As domestic and foreign practice in the design and operation of atomic electric power plants (AEPP) shows, ruptures of large pipes, collectors, and vessels pose the greatest potential radiation hazard among all equipment failures. A quantitative analysis of their reliability becomes an obligatory part of evaluating the reliability of a plant as a whole at the design stage. The results of an investigation of the reliability of the pipes and vessels of an AEPP are presented. 6 refs.

  7. Comparative analysis of Carnaval II Library

    The Carnaval II cross sections library from the french fast reactor calculation system is evaluated in two ways: 10) a comparative analysis of the calculations system for fast reactors at IEN (Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear) using a 'benchmark' model is done; 20) a comparative analysis in relation to the french system itself is also done, using calculations realized with two versions of the french library: the SETR-II and the CARNAVAL IV, the first one being anterior and the second one posterior to the Carnaval II version, the one used by IEN. (Author)

  8. A comparative analysis of aircraft noise performances

    Nicola Gualandi; Luca Mantecchini

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a comparative analysis of aircraft acoustical performance based on the definition of a noise performance indicator called ENSA (equivalent number of standard aircraft). ENSA methodology is based on the choice of a standard aircraft, then ENSA’s values are obtained by comparing the generic aircraft’s performances with the standard aircraft’s performances. The performance evaluation is performed by analysing for each aircraft the equivalent number of standard aircrafts movem...

  9. Root cause analysis in support of reliability enhancement of engineering components

    Reliability based methods have been widely used for the safety assessment of plant system, structures and components. These methods provide a quantitative estimation of system reliability but do not give insight into the failure mechanism. Understanding the failure mechanism is a must to avoid the recurrence of the events and enhancement of the system reliability. Root cause analysis provides a tool for gaining detailed insights into the causes of failure of component with particular attention to the identification of fault in component design, operation, surveillance, maintenance, training, procedures and policies which must be improved to prevent repetition of incidents. Root cause analysis also helps in developing Probabilistic Safety Analysis models. A probabilistic precursor study provides a complement to the root cause analysis approach in event analysis by focusing on how an event might have developed adversely. This paper discusses the root cause analysis methodologies and their application in the specific case studies for enhancement of system reliability. (author)

  10. Seismic elastic-plastic time history analysis and reliability study of quayside container crane

    Jin, Yulong; Li, Zengguang

    2010-06-01

    Quayside container crane is a kind of huge dimension steel structure, which is the major equipment used for handling container at modern ports. With the aim to validate the safety and reliability of the crane under seismic loads, besides conventional analysis, elastic-plastic time history analysis under rare seismic intensity is carried out. An ideal finite element (FEM) elastic-plastic mechanical model of the quayside container crane is presented by using ANSYS codes. Furthermore, according to elastic-plastic time history analysis theory, deformation, stress and damage pattern of the structure under rare seismic intensity are investigated. Based on the above analysis, the established reliability model according to the reliability theory, together with seismic reliability analysis based on Monte-Carlo simulation is applied to practical analysis. The results show that the overall structure of the quayside container crane is generally unstable under rare seismic intensity, and the structure needs to be reinforced.

  11. THE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS

    Bikova E.V.

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available The comparative analysis of ecological indicators designed and specified for Moldova and similar indicators of the countries of CIS is made in the work. Some general items of information about power systems of the countries of CIS (the established capacities, manufacture of the electric power are given, the analysis of dynamics of emissions GHG- СО2, NOx, SO2 in Moldova and comparison with the emissions level in other countries of CIS is made.

  12. Neutron activation analysis-comparative (NAAC)

    A software system for the reduction of comparative neutron activation analysis data is presented. Libraries are constructed to contain the elemental composition and isotopic nuclear data of an unlimited number of standards. Ratios to unknown sample data are performed by standard calibrations. Interfering peak corrections, second-order activation-product corrections, and deconvolution of multiplets are applied automatically. Passive gamma-energy analysis can be performed with the same software. 3 figures

  13. Comparative analysis of black carbon in soils

    Schmidt, Michael W I; Skjemstad, Jan O.; Czimczik, Claudia I.; Glaser, Bruno; Prentice, Ken M; Gelinas, Yves; Thomas A.J. Kuhlbusch

    2001-01-01

    Black carbon (BC), produced by incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and vegetation, occurs ubiquitously in soils and sediments. BC exists as a continuum from partly charred material to highly graphitized soot particles, with no general agreement on clear-cut boundaries of definition or analysis. In a comparative analysis, we measured BC forms in eight soil samples by six established methods. All methods involved removal of the non-BC components from the sample by thermal or chemical means or...

  14. Comparative analysis of methods of hardness assessment

    A. Czarski

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this paper is to show how it could utilize the statistical methods for the process management.Design/methodology/approach: The research methodology bases on a theoretical analysis and empirical researches. A practical solution is presented to compare measurements methods of hardness and to estimate capability indices of measurement system.Findings: Measurement system analysis (MSA), particularly theory of statistical tests brings correct results for the analysed case.Resea...

  15. Highly comparative time-series analysis

    Fulcher, Benjamin D; Jones, Nick S; Little, Max

    2012-01-01

    In this thesis, a highly comparative framework for time-series analysis is developed. The approach draws on large, interdisciplinary collections of over 9000 time-series analysis methods, or operations, and over 30 000 time series, which we have assembled. Statistical learning methods were used to analyze structure in the set of operations applied to the time series, allowing us to relate different types of scientific methods to one another, and to investigate redundancy across them. An analo...

  16. On the reliability of powder diffraction Line Profile Analysis of plastically deformed nanocrystalline systems

    Rebuffi, Luca; Troian, Andrea; Ciancio, Regina; Carlino, Elvio; Amimi, Amine; Leonardi, Alberto; Scardi, Paolo

    2016-01-01

    An iron-molybdenum alloy powder was extensively deformed by high energy milling, so to refine the bcc iron domain size to nanometer scale (~10 nm) and introduce a strong inhomogeneous strain. Both features contribute to comparable degree to the diffraction peak profile broadening, so that size and strain contributions can be easily separated by exploiting their different dependence on the diffraction angle. To assess the reliability of Line Profile Analysis, results were compared with evidence from other techniques, including scanning and transmission electron microscopy and X-ray small angle scattering. Results confirm the extent of the size broadening effect, whereas molecular dynamics simulations provide insight into the origin of the local atomic, inhomogeneous strain, pointing out the role of dislocations, domain boundaries and interactions among crystalline domains. PMID:26860471

  17. Performance Improvement of Edge Expansion Technique for BDD-based Network Reliability Analysis

    Ronggen Chen

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The network reliability analysis based on Binary Decision Diagram (BDD consists of three steps: edge ordering, BDD generation and BDD evaluation. The BDD generation process using edge expansion technique should recursively decompose the network and construct the edge expansion subnet in a top-down manner. There is large number of useless or redundant subnets generated in this decomposition, which causes numerous inefficient computations. Thus, it is extremely important to optimize the edge expansion technique. In this paper, the notation of useless edge expansion and redundant edge expansion is formally defined. The original reason of them being created is identified, and the improvement algorithms based on graph traversal are used to eliminate all these inefficient edge expansion. According to the experimental data, compared with the unimproved BDD generation process, our proposal can dramatically reduce the running time and memory usage and makes possible the analysis of large network.

  18. Reliability analysis of discrete event dynamic systems with Petri nets

    This paper deals with dynamic reliability of embedded systems. It presents a method for deriving feared scenarios (which might lead the system to a critical situation) in Petri nets. A classical way to obtain scenarios in Petri nets is to generate the reachability graph. However, for complex systems, it leads to the state space explosion. To avoid this problem, in our approach, Petri net reachability is translated into provability of linear logic sequents. Linear logic bases are introduced and used to formally define scenarios and minimality of scenarios. These definitions allow the method to produce only pertinent scenarios. The steps of the method are described and illustrated through a landing-gear system example.

  19. A knowledge based approach for systems safety and reliability analysis

    The paper presents EXPRESS, an expert system developed for the automatization of reliability studies. The first part consists of the description of the method for static thermohydraulic systems. In this step, the knowledge representation based on two inference engines - ALOUETTE and LRC (developed by Electricite de France) is defined. The processes used to construct a fault tree from a topological and functional description of the system are described. Numerous examples are given. The lessons derived from the studies were validated on safety systems of the Paluel nuclear power plant. The development of the same approach for electric power systems is described, and the differences resulting from the sequential nature of these systems are emphasized. Finally, the main advantages of EXPRESS identified during the studies are shown. (author). Poster presentation. 4 refs, 1 fig

  20. Emergency diesel generator reliability analysis high flux isotope reactor

    A program to apply some of the techniques of reliability engineering to the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) was started on August 8, 1992. Part of the program was to track the conditional probabilities of the emergency diesel generators responding to a valid demand. This was done to determine if the performance of the emergency diesel generators (which are more than 25 years old) has deteriorated. The conditional probabilities of the diesel generators were computed and trended for the period from May 1990 to December 1992. The calculations indicate that the performance of the emergency diesel generators has not deteriorated in recent years, i.e., the conditional probabilities of the emergency diesel generators have been fairly stable over the last few years. This information will be one factor than may be considered in the decision to replace the emergency diesel generators

  1. IEEE guide for general principles of reliability analysis of nuclear power generating station protection systems

    Presented is the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE) guide for general principles of reliability analysis of nuclear power generating station protection systems. The document has been prepared to provide the basic principles needed to conduct a reliability analysis of protection systems. Included is information on qualitative and quantitative analysis, guides for failure data acquisition and use, and guide for establishment of intervals

  2. Methodology for reliability allocation based on fault tree analysis and dualistic contrast

    Reliability allocation is a difficult multi-objective optimization problem. This paper presents a methodology for reliability allocation that can be applied to determine the reliability characteristics of reactor systems or subsystems. The dualistic contrast, known as one of the most powerful tools for optimization problems, is applied to the reliability allocation model of a typical system in this article. And the fault tree analysis, deemed to be one of the effective methods of reliability analysis, is also adopted. Thus a failure rate allocation model based on the fault tree analysis and dualistic contrast is achieved. An application on the emergency diesel generator in the nuclear power plant is given to illustrate the proposed method. (authors)

  3. Comparative analysis of radionuclide inventory in sediment 1995

    In order to test the reliability of methods used in environmental monitoring for radioactive substances, the Bundesanstalt fuer Gewaesserkunde in 1995 again carried out a comparative analysis ''Radionuclides in sediment'' with correspondingly labelled or conditioned samples. The primary aim of this project - independently of the method used in each instance and the measuring conditions observed - was to establish the extent to which the measuring results of the individual participants deviate from specified supposed values or likeliest contents, and also to valuate these deviations by means of illustrative quality parameters. In so far the aim of this comparative analysis differs from that of a so-called inter-laboratory experiment, where the primary objective is to obtain characteristic data for an analytical method (orig./SR)

  4. Semantic Web for Reliable Citation Analysis in Scholarly Publishing

    Tous, Ruben; Guerrero, Manel; Delgado, Jaime

    2012-01-01

    Analysis of the impact of scholarly artifacts is constrained by current unreliable practices in cross-referencing, citation discovering, and citation indexing and analysis, which have not kept pace with the technological advances that are occurring in several areas like knowledge management and security. Because citation analysis has become the primary component in scholarly impact factor calculation, and considering the relevance of this metric within both the scholarly publishing value chai...

  5. Reliability Analysis Of Fire System On The Industry Facility By Use Fameca Method

    FAMECA is one of the analysis method to determine system reliability on the industry facility. Analysis is done by some procedure that is identification of component function, determination of failure mode, severity level and effect of their failure. Reliability value is determined by three combinations that is severity level, component failure value and critical component. Reliability of analysis has been done for fire system on the industry by FAMECA method. Critical component which identified is pump, air release valve, check valve, manual test valve, isolation valve, control system etc

  6. Validity and reliability of a portable gait analysis system for measuring spatiotemporal gait characteristics: comparison to an instrumented treadmill

    Donath, Lars; Faude, Oliver; Lichtenstein, Eric; Nüesch, Corina; Mündermann, Annegret

    2016-01-01

    Background Gait analysis serves as an important tool for clinicians and other health professionals to assess gait patterns related to functional limitations due to neurological or orthopedic conditions. The purpose of this study was to assess the validity of a body-worn inertial sensor system (RehaGait®) for measuring spatiotemporal gait characteristics compared to a stationary treadmill (Zebris) and the reliability of both systems at different walking speeds and slopes. Methods Gait analysis...

  7. Validity and reliability of a portable gait analysis system for measuring spatiotemporal gait characteristics : comparison to an instrumented treadmill

    Donath, Lars; Faude, Oliver; Lichtenstein, Eric; Nüesch, Corina; Mündermann, Annegret

    2016-01-01

    BackgroundGait analysis serves as an important tool for clinicians and other health professionals to assess gait patterns related to functional limitations due to neurological or orthopedic conditions. The purpose of this study was to assess the validity of a body-worn inertial sensor system (RehaGait®) for measuring spatiotemporal gait characteristics compared to a stationary treadmill (Zebris) and the reliability of both systems at different walking speeds and slopes.MethodsGait analysis wa...

  8. Reliability of three-dimensional gait analysis in cervical spondylotic myelopathy.

    McDermott, Ailish

    2010-10-01

    Gait impairment is one of the primary symptoms of cervical spondylotic myelopathy (CSM). Detailed assessment is possible using three-dimensional gait analysis (3DGA), however the reliability of 3DGA for this population has not been established. The aim of this study was to evaluate the test-retest reliability of temporal-spatial, kinematic and kinetic parameters in a CSM population.

  9. Reliability analysis of K-out-of-N: G systems with dependent failures and imperfect coverage

    Moustafa, Magdi S

    1997-10-01

    This paper presents a Markov model for reliability analysis of K-out-of-N: G systems subject to dependent failures with imperfect coverage. Closed form solutions of the probabilities are used to obtain the reliability and the mean time to failure (MTTF). A numerical example is provided to illustrate the results.

  10. RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF A SYSTEM OF BOILER USED IN READYMADE GARMENT INDUSTRY

    Agnihotri, R. K.; Ajit Khare; Sanjay Jain

    2008-01-01

    The present paper deals with the reliability analysis of a system of boiler used in garment industry.The system consists of a single unit of boiler which plays an important role in garment industry. Usingregenerative point technique with Markov renewal process various reliability characteristics of interest areobtained.

  11. Convergence among Data Sources, Response Bias, and Reliability and Validity of a Structured Job Analysis Questionnaire.

    Smith, Jack E.; Hakel, Milton D.

    1979-01-01

    Examined are questions pertinent to the use of the Position Analysis Questionnaire: Who can use the PAQ reliably and validly? Must one rely on trained job analysts? Can people having no direct contact with the job use the PAQ reliably and validly? Do response biases influence PAQ responses? (Author/KC)

  12. Comparative Efficiency Analysis of Referral Costs in

    Portela, Maria; Thanassoulis, Emmanuel; Graveney, Mike

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to compare English General Practitioner (GP) units in terms of their overall referral costs through Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Results revealed potential cost savings and benchmark practices under 4 perspectives: overall cost efficiency, technical efficiency, allocative efficiency, and price efficiency.

  13. MycoCAP - Mycobacterium Comparative Analysis Platform.

    Choo, Siew Woh; Ang, Mia Yang; Dutta, Avirup; Tan, Shi Yang; Siow, Cheuk Chuen; Heydari, Hamed; Mutha, Naresh V R; Wee, Wei Yee; Wong, Guat Jah

    2015-01-01

    Mycobacterium spp. are renowned for being the causative agent of diseases like leprosy, Buruli ulcer and tuberculosis in human beings. With more and more mycobacterial genomes being sequenced, any knowledge generated from comparative genomic analysis would provide better insights into the biology, evolution, phylogeny and pathogenicity of this genus, thus helping in better management of diseases caused by Mycobacterium spp.With this motivation, we constructed MycoCAP, a new comparative analysis platform dedicated to the important genus Mycobacterium. This platform currently provides information of 2108 genome sequences of at least 55 Mycobacterium spp. A number of intuitive web-based tools have been integrated in MycoCAP particularly for comparative analysis including the PGC tool for comparison between two genomes, PathoProT for comparing the virulence genes among the Mycobacterium strains and the SuperClassification tool for the phylogenic classification of the Mycobacterium strains and a specialized classification system for strains of Mycobacterium abscessus. We hope the broad range of functions and easy-to-use tools provided in MycoCAP makes it an invaluable analysis platform to speed up the research discovery on mycobacteria for researchers. Database URL: http://mycobacterium.um.edu.my. PMID:26666970

  14. Reliability analysis of protection system of advanced pressurized water reactor - APR 1400

    Reliability analysis was carried out for the protection system of the Korean Advanced Pressurized Water Reactor - APR 1400. The main focus of this study was the reliability analysis of digital protection system, however, towards giving an integrated statement of complete protection reliability an attempt has been made to include the shutdown devices and other related aspects based on the information available to date. The sensitivity analysis has been carried out for the critical components / functions in the system. Other aspects like importance analysis and human error reliability for the critical human actions form part of this work. The framework provided by this study and the results obtained shows that this analysis has potential to be utilized as part of risk informed approach for future design / regulatory applications

  15. Method of predicting operating reliability indexes and method of reliability analysis of new power stage of WWER type nuclear power plant

    PRIS IAEA data were used for predicting operating reliability of the WWER-1000 unit as were data on the operation of the V-1 nuclear power plant in Jaslovske Bohunice drawn from regular monthly reports. The analysis of the data was oriented mainly to determining reliability indexes for partial technological assemblies, and allowed to determine operating and reliability indexes for an average nuclear power plant with 440, 500 and 1000 MW units. The results of the analysis may be used for determining the reliability of the technological equipment of the WWER-1000 unit using the Bayes formula derived assuming the applicability of total probability. (J.B.)

  16. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF CELEBRITY AND NON-CELEBRITY ADVERTISEMENT

    Ammar Asad

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This study is undertaken to make a comparative analysis of celebrity advertisement and non-celebrity advertisement with respect to attitude toward advertisement, attitude toward brand, purchase intentions, and advertising attributes. For this purpose, a simple random sample of 200 students studying four different disciplines was taken from the Private University in Lahore. For econometric proof, reliability analysis, descriptive analysis, and independent sample T-test was used to interpret the results. Our findings show that there is no significant difference between celebrity and non-celebrity advertisement with respect to attitude toward advertisement, attitude toward brand, purchasing intentions, and advertising attributes. The limitations and recommendations of this research are also given.

  17. Architecture for interlock systems: reliability analysis with regard to safety and availability

    For particle accelerators like LHC and other large experimental physics facilities like ITER, the machine protection relies on complex interlock systems. In the design of interlock loops for the signal exchange in machine protection systems, the choice of the hardware architecture impacts on machine safety and availability. The reliable performance of a machine stop (leaving the machine in a safe state) in case of an emergency, is an inherent requirement. The constraints in terms of machine availability on the other hand may differ from one facility to another. Spurious machine stops, lowering machine availability, may to a certain extent be tolerated in facilities where they do not cause undue equipment wear-out. In order to compare various interlock loop architectures in terms of safety and availability, the occurrence frequencies of related scenarios have been calculated in a reliability analysis, using a generic analytical model. This paper presents the results and illustrates the potential of the analysis method for supporting the choice of interlock system architectures. The results show the advantages of a 2003 (3 redundant lines with 2-out-of-3 voting) over the 6 architectures under consideration for systems with high requirements in both safety and availability

  18. Reliability analysis study of digital reactor protection system in nuclear power plant

    The Digital I and C systems are believed to improve a plant's safety and reliability generally. The reliability analysis of digital I and C system has become one research hotspot. Traditional fault tree method is one of means to quantify the digital I and C system reliability. One typical digital protection system special for advanced reactor has been developed in this paper, which reliability evaluation is necessary for design demonstration. The typical digital protection system construction is introduced in the paper, and the process of FMEA and fault tree application to the digital protection system reliability evaluation are described. Reliability data and bypass logic modeling are two points giving special attention in the paper. Because the factors about time sequence and feedback not exist in reactor protection system obviously, the dynamic feature of digital system is not discussed. (authors)

  19. Reliability analysis of emergency decay heat removal system of nuclear ship under various accident conditions

    A reliability analysis is given for the emergency decay heat removal system of the Nuclear Ship ''Mutsu'' and the emergency sea water cooling system of the Nuclear Ship ''Savannah'', under ten typical nuclear ship accident conditions. Basic event probabilities under these accident conditions are estimated from literature survey. These systems of Mutsu and Savannah have almost the same reliability under the normal condition. The dispersive arrangement of a system is useful to prevent the reduction of the system reliability under the condition of an accident restricted in one room. As for the reliability of these two systems under various accident conditions, it is seen that the configuration and the environmental condition of a system are two main factors which determine the reliability of the system. Furthermore, it was found that, for the evaluation of the effectiveness of safety system of a nuclear ship, it is necessary to evaluate its reliability under various accident conditions. (author)

  20. Correlation analysis for screening key parameters for passive system reliability analysis

    Highlights: • A method for screening key parameters used in passive system reliability analysis. • T–H model is a relationship between output and each input. • Correlation coefficient between output and input is influenced by T–H performance. • Correlation coefficient is also affected by uncertainty of input. - Abstract: Passive systems are widely used in new generation nuclear power plants to enhance their safety. Reliability of passive system operating based on natural circulation must be assessed in terms of functional failure. The functional failure probability evaluation requires repeatedly running the thermal–hydraulic (T–H) code which simulates the system responses under different values of the input parameters. In practice, repeated running of the code is quite costly in terms of running time and artificial neural network (ANN) has been proposed to replace the T–H model. However, the number of input parameters can be too large to satisfy the requirement of the ANN. In this paper we illustrate a systematic methodology to screen the key parameters for passive system operation based on correlation analysis for reducing the number of inputs. Correlation analysis is a well-known statistical method to assess the relationships among parameters. In the case of interest for passive system reliability, we consider the T–H model as a relationship between model inputs and outputs, which can be used in correlation analysis. With this method, key parameters can be screened with limited numbers of samples. The passive containment cooling system in AP1000 is analyzed and 4 parameters are identified as important ones from 47 inputs

  1. Optimizing quality assurance program benefits through performance and reliability analysis

    Quality assurance (QA) principles have long been applied in part to many varied industrial enterprises. In general, the main emphasis in the past has been placed largely on standard management practices with the inclusion of quality control or inspection elements. The advent of commercial nuclear power brought the evolution of a more comprehensive approach to the applications of QA programs in this and related industries. However, the application philosophy was aimed almost totally at assuring the safety of the worker and the public. Recently, there has been a strong movement by industry and business in the United States and Europe to apply QA in a more general way to assure overall reliability as well as safety. The key to successfully accomplishing this is the determination of the degree of program intensity appropriate to the item or activity that is part of the total project or operation. This paper describes an approach to enable management to not only make initial determinations of how to apply the elements of a QA program, but how to continuously adjust the program to optimize the benefits that can be obtained

  2. The first Superphenix fuel load reliability analysis and validation

    The excellent behavior of PHENIX driver fuel and the burnup values currently reached suggest that the first SUPERPHENIX fuel load will meet the design lifetime. However, to ensure the reliability of the entire load, all the parameters affecting fuel behavior in reactor must be analyzed. For that purpose, we have taken into account all the results of the examination and verifications during the fabrication process of the first load subassemblies. These data concern geometrical parameters or oxide composition as well as the cladding tube and plug weld soundness tests. The objective is to determine the actual dispersion of all the parameters to ensure the absence of failure due to fabrication defects with very high statistical confidence limits. The influence of all the parameters has been investigated for the situations which can occur during power-up, steady-state operation and transients. The fabrication quality allows us to demonstrate that in all cases good behavior criteria for fuel and structure will be maintained. This demonstration is based on calculation code results as well as on validation by specific experiments

  3. Applying reliability centered maintenance analysis principles to inservice testing

    Federal regulations require nuclear power plants to use inservice test (IST) programs to ensure the operability of safety-related equipment. IST programs are based on American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code requirements. Many of these plants also use Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) to optimize system maintenance. ASME Code requirements are hard to change. The process for requesting authority to use an alternate strategy is long and expensive. The difficulties of obtaining this authority make the use of RCM method on safety-related systems not cost effective. An ASME research task force on Risk Based Inservice Testing is investigating changing the Code. The change will allow plants to apply RCM methods to the problem of maintenance strategy selection for safety-related systems. The research task force is working closely with the Codes and Standards sections to develop a process related to the RCM process. Some day plants will be able to use this process to develop more efficient and safer maintenance strategies

  4. DATA ANALYSIS METHODS AND THE RELIABILITY OF ANALYTIC EPIDEMIOLOGIC RESEARCH

    PRENTICE, Ross L.

    2008-01-01

    Publications that compare randomized controlled trial and cohort study results on the effects of postmenopausal estrogen plus progestin therapy are reviewed. The 2 types of studies agree in identifying an early elevation in coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, and a later — developing elevation in breast cancer risk. Effects among women who begin hormone therapy within a few years following the menopause may be comparatively more favorable for CHD and less favorable for breast cancer. These ana...

  5. Analysis methods for structure reliability of piping components

    In the frame of the German reactor safety research program of the Federal Ministry of Economics and Labour (BMWA) GRS has started to develop an analysis code named PROST (PRObabilistic STructure analysis) for estimating the leak and break probabilities of piping systems in nuclear power plants. The long-term objective of this development is to provide failure probabilities of passive components for probabilistic safety analysis of nuclear power plants. Up to now the code can be used for calculating fatigue problems. The paper mentions the main capabilities and theoretical background of the present PROST development and presents some of the results of a benchmark analysis in the frame of the European project NURBIM (Nuclear Risk Based Inspection Methodologies for Passive Components). (orig.)

  6. Analysis methods for structure reliability of piping components

    Schimpfke, T.; Grebner, H.; Sievers, J. [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) mbH, Koeln (Germany)

    2004-07-01

    In the frame of the German reactor safety research program of the Federal Ministry of Economics and Labour (BMWA) GRS has started to develop an analysis code named PROST (PRObabilistic STructure analysis) for estimating the leak and break probabilities of piping systems in nuclear power plants. The long-term objective of this development is to provide failure probabilities of passive components for probabilistic safety analysis of nuclear power plants. Up to now the code can be used for calculating fatigue problems. The paper mentions the main capabilities and theoretical background of the present PROST development and presents some of the results of a benchmark analysis in the frame of the European project NURBIM (Nuclear Risk Based Inspection Methodologies for Passive Components). (orig.)

  7. The Centralized Reliability Data Organization (CREDO); an advanced nuclear reactor reliability, availability, and maintainability data bank and data analysis center

    The Centralized Reliability Data Organization (CREDO) is a data bank and data analysis center, which since 1985 has been jointly sponsored by the US Department of Energy's (US DOE's) Office of Technology Support Programs and Japan's Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development Corporation (PNC). It focuses on reliability, availability and maintainability (RAM) data for components (e.g. valves, pumps, etc.) operating in advanced nuclear reactor facilities. As originally intended, the purpose of the CREDO system was to provide a centralized source of accurate, up-to-date data and information for use in RAM analyses necessary for meeting DOE's data needs in the areas of advanced reactor safety assessments, design and licensing. In particular, creation of the CREDO system was considered an essential element needed to fulfill the DOE Breeder Reactor Safety Program's commitment of 'identifying and exploiting areas in which probabilistic methods can be developed and used in making reactor safety Research and Development choices and optimizing designs of safety systems'. CREDO and its operation are explained. (author)

  8. Task analysis and computer aid development for human reliability analysis in nuclear power plants

    Yoon, W. C.; Kim, H.; Park, H. S.; Choi, H. H.; Moon, J. M.; Heo, J. Y.; Ham, D. H.; Lee, K. K.; Han, B. T. [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejeon (Korea)

    2001-04-01

    Importance of human reliability analysis (HRA) that predicts the error's occurrence possibility in a quantitative and qualitative manners is gradually increased by human errors' effects on the system's safety. HRA needs a task analysis as a virtue step, but extant task analysis techniques have the problem that a collection of information about the situation, which the human error occurs, depends entirely on HRA analyzers. The problem makes results of the task analysis inconsistent and unreliable. To complement such problem, KAERI developed the structural information analysis (SIA) that helps to analyze task's structure and situations systematically. In this study, the SIA method was evaluated by HRA experts, and a prototype computerized supporting system named CASIA (Computer Aid for SIA) was developed for the purpose of supporting to perform HRA using the SIA method. Additionally, through applying the SIA method to emergency operating procedures, we derived generic task types used in emergency and accumulated the analysis results in the database of the CASIA. The CASIA is expected to help HRA analyzers perform the analysis more easily and consistently. If more analyses will be performed and more data will be accumulated to the CASIA's database, HRA analyzers can share freely and spread smoothly his or her analysis experiences, and there by the quality of the HRA analysis will be improved. 35 refs., 38 figs., 25 tabs. (Author)

  9. Simulation and Non-Simulation Based Human Reliability Analysis Approaches

    Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Shirley, Rachel Elizabeth [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Joe, Jeffrey Clark [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2014-12-01

    Part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway develops approaches to estimating and managing safety margins. RISMC simulations pair deterministic plant physics models with probabilistic risk models. As human interactions are an essential element of plant risk, it is necessary to integrate human actions into the RISMC risk model. In this report, we review simulation-based and non-simulation-based human reliability assessment (HRA) methods. Chapter 2 surveys non-simulation-based HRA methods. Conventional HRA methods target static Probabilistic Risk Assessments for Level 1 events. These methods would require significant modification for use in dynamic simulation of Level 2 and Level 3 events. Chapter 3 is a review of human performance models. A variety of methods and models simulate dynamic human performance; however, most of these human performance models were developed outside the risk domain and have not been used for HRA. The exception is the ADS-IDAC model, which can be thought of as a virtual operator program. This model is resource-intensive but provides a detailed model of every operator action in a given scenario, along with models of numerous factors that can influence operator performance. Finally, Chapter 4 reviews the treatment of timing of operator actions in HRA methods. This chapter is an example of one of the critical gaps between existing HRA methods and the needs of dynamic HRA. This report summarizes the foundational information needed to develop a feasible approach to modeling human interactions in the RISMC simulations.

  10. Parametric and semiparametric models with applications to reliability, survival analysis, and quality of life

    Nikulin, M; Mesbah, M; Limnios, N

    2004-01-01

    Parametric and semiparametric models are tools with a wide range of applications to reliability, survival analysis, and quality of life. This self-contained volume examines these tools in survey articles written by experts currently working on the development and evaluation of models and methods. While a number of chapters deal with general theory, several explore more specific connections and recent results in "real-world" reliability theory, survival analysis, and related fields.

  11. Reliability Estimation based on Step-Stress Accelerated Degradation Testing by Unequal Interval Time Series Analysis

    Li Wang; Zaiwen Liu; Chongchong Yu

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes a reliability estimation method based on Step-Stress Accelerated Degradation Testing (SSADT) data analysis using unequal interval time series analysis. A Multi-Regression Time Varying Auto-Regressive (MRTVAR) degradation time series model is proposed. Product SSADT data are treated as unequal interval composite time series and described using MRTVAR time series model and utilized to predict long-term trend of degradation. By using the suggested method, product reliability ...

  12. Reliability analysis of the automatic control of the A-1 power plant coolant temperature

    Reliability analysis of the automatic control of the A-1 reactor coolant temperature is performed taking into account the effect of both the dependent failures and the routine maintenance of control system components. In a separate supplement, reliability analysis is reported of coincidence systems of the A-1 power plant reactor. Both safe and unsafe failures are taken into consideration as well as the effect of maintenance of the respective branch elements

  13. Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis of Cast Iron Water Pipes for Agricultural Food Irrigation

    Yanling Ni

    2014-01-01

    This study aims to investigate the reliability and sensitivity of cast iron water pipes for agricultural food irrigation. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used for fracture assessment and reliability analysis of cast iron pipes for agricultural food irrigation. Fracture toughness is considered as a limit state function for corrosion affected cast iron pipes. Then the influence of failure mode on the probability of pipe failure has been discussed. Sensitivity analysis also is carried out t...

  14. Reliability Assessment Based on Multivariate Degradation Measures and Competing Failure Analysis

    Zhu Liang; Yan Jun; Haifeng Ling; Zhenglian Su

    2011-01-01

    An reliability assessment model based on multivariate degradation measures and competing failure analysis is presented. The multi-dimensionality reduction processing has applied to multivariate degradation measures to extract the key features for ease of calculation. The cumulative distribution function of sudden failure is calculated in terms of degradation data rather than time domains, and the reliability assessment model based on competing failure analysis is established. An example of an...

  15. Structured information analysis for human reliability analysis of emergency tasks in nuclear power plants

    Jung, Won Dea; Kim, Jae Whan; Park, Jin Kyun; Ha, Jae Joo [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea)

    2000-02-01

    More than twenty HRA (Human Reliability Analysis) methodologies have been developed and used for the safety analysis in nuclear field during the past two decades. However, no methodology appears to have universally been accepted, as various limitations have been raised for more widely used ones. One of the most important limitations of conventional HRA is insufficient analysis of the task structure and problem space. To resolve this problem, we suggest SIA (Structured Information Analysis) for HRA. The proposed SIA consists of three parts. The first part is the scenario analysis that investigates the contextual information related to the given task on the basis of selected scenarios. The second is the goals-means analysis to define the relations between the cognitive goal and task steps. The third is the cognitive function analysis module that identifies the cognitive patterns and information flows involved in the task. Through the three-part analysis, systematic investigation is made possible from the macroscopic information on the tasks to the microscopic information on the specific cognitive processes. It is expected that analysts can attain a structured set of information that helps to predict the types and possibility of human error in the given task. 48 refs., 12 figs., 11 tabs. (Author)

  16. Reliability analysis of a gravity-based foundation for wind turbines

    Vahdatirad, Mohammad Javad; Griffiths, D. V.; Andersen, Lars Vabbersgaard; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Fenton, G. A.

    2014-01-01

    Deterministic code-based designs proposed for wind turbine foundations, are typically biased on the conservative side, and overestimate the probability of failure which can lead to higher than necessary construction cost. In this study reliability analysis of a gravity-based foundation concerning...... technique to perform the reliability analysis. The calibrated code-based design approach leads to savings of up to 20% in the concrete foundation volume, depending on the target annual reliability level. The study can form the basis for future optimization on deterministic-based designs for wind turbine...... foundations....

  17. Academic Expectations Stress Inventory: Development, Factor Analysis, Reliability, and Validity

    Ang, Rebecca P.; Huan, Vivien S.

    2006-01-01

    This article describes the development and initial validation of obtained scores from the Academic Expectations Stress Inventory (AESI), which measures expectations as a source of academic stress in middle and high school Asian students. In the first study, exploratory factor analysis results from 721 adolescents suggested a nine-item scale with…

  18. Comparative analysis of twelve Dothideomycete plant pathogens

    Ohm, Robin; Aerts, Andrea; Salamov, Asaf; Goodwin, Stephen B.; Grigoriev, Igor

    2011-03-11

    The Dothideomycetes are one of the largest and most diverse groups of fungi. Many are plant pathogens and pose a serious threat to agricultural crops grown for biofuel, food or feed. Most Dothideomycetes have only a single host and related Dothideomycete species can have very diverse host plants. Twelve Dothideomycete genomes have currently been sequenced by the Joint Genome Institute and other sequencing centers. They can be accessed via Mycocosm which has tools for comparative analysis

  19. ANALYSIS AND COMPARATIVE STUDY OF SEARCHING TECHNIQUES

    Ayush Pathak

    2015-01-01

    We live in the age of technolgy and it is quiet obvious that it is increasing day-by-day endlessly. In this technical era researchers are focusing on the development of the existing technologies. Software engineering is the dominant branch of Computer Science that deals with the development and analysis of the software. The objective of this study is to analyze and compare the existing searching algorithms (linear search and binary search). In this paper, we will discuss both thes...

  20. Comparative Analysis: A Feasible Software Engineering Method

    Maneva, Nelly

    2007-01-01

    The reasonable choice is a critical success factor for decision- making in the field of software engineering (SE). A case-driven comparative analysis has been introduced and a procedure for its systematic application has been suggested. The paper describes how the proposed method can be built in a general framework for SE activities. Some examples of experimental versions of the framework are brie y presented.

  1. Comparative Document Analysis for Large Text Corpora

    Ren, Xiang; Lv, Yuanhua; Wang, Kuansan; Han, Jiawei

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a novel research problem on joint discovery of commonalities and differences between two individual documents (or document sets), called Comparative Document Analysis (CDA). Given any pair of documents from a document collection, CDA aims to automatically identify sets of quality phrases to summarize the commonalities of both documents and highlight the distinctions of each with respect to the other informatively and concisely. Our solution uses a general graph-based frame...

  2. Comparative analysis of the Borrelia garinii genome

    Glckner, G; Lehmann, R.; Romualdi, A; Pradella, S; Schulte-Spechtel, U.; Schilhabel, M. (Markus); Wilske, B.; Shnel, J.; Platzer, M.

    2004-01-01

    Three members of the genus Borrelia (B.burgdorferi, B.garinii, B.afzelii) cause tick-borne borreliosis. Depending on the Borrelia species involved, the borreliosis differs in its clinical symptoms. Comparative genomics opens up a way to elucidate the underlying differences in Borrelia species. We analysed a low redundancy whole-genome shotgun (WGS) assembly of a B.garinii strain isolated from a patient with neuroborreliosis in comparison to the B.burgdorferi genome. This analysis reveals that...

  3. Comparative Analysis of VNSA Complex Engineering Efforts

    Gary Ackerman

    2016-01-01

    The case studies undertaken in this special issue demonstrate unequivocally that, despite being forced to operate clandestinely and facing the pressures of security forces seeking to hunt them down and neutralize them, at least a subset of violent non-state actors (VNSAs) are capable of some genuinely impressive feats of engineering. At the same time, success in such endeavours is not guaranteed and VNSAs will undoubtedly face a number of obstacles along the way. A comparative analysis of the...

  4. a comparative analysis through the allocation function

    Vila Maior, Paulo

    2009-01-01

    A political-economic model largely influenced by the monetarist school inspires European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Accordingly, neither income redistribution nor resource allocation is the cornerstone of economic policy mix. That role is reserved to the stabilisation function. Among those scholars who discuss whether the EU is comparable to existing cases of conventional fiscal federalism, the analysis is frequently concentrated on allocation and redistribution. Despite macroeconom...

  5. Update of the human reliability analysis for a nuclear power plant

    Human reliability analysis is a systematic framework, which includes the process of evaluation of human performance and associated impacts on structures, systems and components for a complex facility. The update of Human Reliability Analysis in Probabilistic Safety Assessment of a Nuclear Power Plant requires the development of an overall method for the human reliability analysis. The update is needed as the original human reliability analysis was performed years ago, as the methods have been improved, as the requirements for performing the analyses have changed and as the additional good practice was gained in the mean time. The method for update of human reliability analysis is developed with consideration of the current requirements and the good practice. The selected features of existing methods and the selected specific features are introduced into the method. The evaluation is performed and the preliminary results of human reliability analysis are introduced into the probabilistic safety assessment model. The preliminary results of evaluating the probabilistic safety assessment model identify the key risk contributors and the areas for possible improvement. (author)

  6. Redevelopment and reliability study of simultaneously uranium and thorium analysis automation control system

    Full-text: This project is to refurbish the Instrumental Delayed Neutron Activation Analysis System for Simultaneously Determination of Uranium and Thorium namely PAUTS. PAUTS use nuclear techniques for the quantitative determination of Uranium-235 (U-235) and Thorium-232 (Th-232)radionuclides contents in the samples. It consists of three main automation procedures namely Control sample handling, Data Acquisition for neutron counting, and data handling and analysis program. The automation control technology for this project is based on a personal computer (PC), Ethernet communication support, programmable automation control (PAC) module CFP 2220, infrared photo sensors and LabVIEW software package. The analysis samples capsule was placed in transfers containers or rabbit and will be transfer using fast pneumatic sample handling for activation by irradiate it to neutron in the reactor core. Both radionuclides as a fission product will decay and emit the delayed neutron which are count using the nuclear counting electronics module. Studies on the reliability of fast pneumatic sample handling using the statistical method shows that 95 % confidence level had been reach. Results shows the mean transfer time of the sample from the loader to the reactor core is 3251 210 ms, while the mean transfer time of the samples from the core to the counter chamber is 3264 407 ms. The overall system reliability has been verified using analysis of calibration standard material with known quantity of uranium and thorium IAEA-S17, the IAEA-ThO2 and the IAEA-S14 method. At the moment nuclear counting electronic based on 4 units neutron detector and the results were in line with the previous experiment. Results shows that the content of U and Th is in the average of 19:35 ppm and 432.25 ppm respectively compared with the known quantity of the sample is 29.0 ppm and 460 ppm. Studies on the effects pneumatic sample handling to the irradiation time parameter indicated that the previous experiments parameters produce optimal results of the IDNAA analysis using IAEA-S14. The results of this study show the overall reliability parameters of the PAUTs system. (author)

  7. Inter comparison of REPAS and APSRA methodologies for passive system reliability analysis

    The increasing use of passive systems in the innovative nuclear reactors puts demand on the estimation of the reliability assessment of these passive systems. The passive systems operate on the driving forces such as natural circulation, gravity, internal stored energy etc. which are moderately weaker than that of active components. Hence, phenomenological failures (virtual components) are equally important as that of equipment failures (real components) in the evaluation of passive systems reliability. The contribution of the mechanical components to the passive system reliability can be evaluated in a classical way using the available component reliability database and well known methods. On the other hand, different methods are required to evaluate the reliability of processes like thermohydraulics due to lack of adequate failure data. The research is ongoing worldwide on the reliability assessment of the passive systems and their integration into PSA, however consensus is not reached. Two of the most widely used methods are Reliability Evaluation of Passive Systems (REPAS) and Assessment of Passive System Reliability (APSRA). Both these methods characterize the uncertainties involved in the design and process parameters governing the function of the passive system. However, these methods differ in the quantification of passive system reliability. Inter comparison among different available methods provides useful insights into the strength and weakness of different methods. This paper highlights the results of the thermal hydraulic analysis of a typical passive isolation condenser system carried out using RELAP mode 3.2 computer code applying REPAS and APSRA methodologies. The failure surface is established for the passive system under consideration and system reliability has also been evaluated using these methods. Challenges involved in passive system reliabilities are identified, which require further attention in order to overcome the shortcomings of these methods. These procedures can then be applied for evaluating passive system reliability, which would be used in risk-informed decision-making. (author)

  8. Reliability analysis of structural stainless steel design provisions

    Afshan, S; Francis, P.; Baddoo, NR; Gardner, L.

    2015-01-01

    Since the establishment of the Eurocode design provisions for structural stainless steel, a considerable amount of both statistical material data and experimental results on structural elements has been generated. In light of this, the current partial resistance factors recommended in EN 1993-1-4 for the design of stainless steel elements are re-evaluated. First, following an analysis of material data from key stainless steel producers, representative values of the over-strength and the coeff...

  9. Reliability of contemporary data-acquisition techniques for LEED analysis

    It is becoming clear that one of the principal limitations in LEED structure analysis is the quality of the experimental I-V profiles. This limitation is discussed, and data acquisition procedures described, which for simple systems, seem to enhance the quality of agreement between the results of theoretical model calculations and experimental LEED spectra. By employing such procedures to obtain data from Cu(100), excellent agreement between computed and measured profiles has been achieved. 7 figures

  10. Structured information analysis for human reliability analysis of emergency tasks in nuclear power plants

    Being supported by scarce empirical data, most of the performance influencing factors in human reliability analysis (HRA) have to be assessed on the basis of the analyst's knowledge on the human performance in given tasks and their context. Therefore, the outcome of HRA may only be warranted by a proper application of their knowledge based on sufficient information about the tasks and situations. However, most of the HRA methodologies, including the newly developed ones, focus on the provision of cognitive models, error mechanisms, error types and analysis method while leaving the information collection mostly in the hands of the analyst. This paper suggests structured information analysis (SIA), which helps HRA analysts in collecting and structuring such information on tasks and contexts. The SIA consists of three parts: the scenario analysis, the goal-means analysis, and the cognitive function analysis. An expert evaluation showed that this three-part information analysis allowed more expressiveness and hence more confidence on the error prediction than ASEP HRA

  11. Development of reliability analysis tools and database for Integrated Risk Management System (IRMS)

    The Korea Occupational Safety and Health Agency (KOSHA) is developing an Integrated Risk Management System (IRMS) to support the quantification and management of risk from chemical plants. The IRMS system includes the development of methodology, software tools and database necessary for quantitative risk assessment, which are consequence analysis software, graphical display of results on a geometric map, reliability analysis software, component reliability database, and equipment and hazardous material information databases. An overview of the IRMS will be presented in another paper, 'GIS-based IRMS.' The quantification of a risk consists of two major parts: one is a deterministic analysis, such as the consequence analysis of an explosion of flammable material, and the other is a probabilistic part such as the frequency analysis of and explosion or a reliability analysis of the protection system. This paper describes the development work in a probabilistic part of the IRMS. (author)

  12. An approach of HALT and Failure analysis for Product Reliability Improvement(An Application to controller for fan module)

    HALT(Highly Accelerated Life Test) is the new technology for reliability assurance. The merit of HALT is a short period of the test time(about 3 to 7 days). This paper is an application of HALT and FA(Failure analysis) to improve the reliability of the fan module. Before HALT, some environmental test results were good. But we could not assure the reliability level of the test sample. So, we choose the technique of HALT to compare the test sample with a same product of the other leading company. After HALT, we found some defects(solder crack, cut of capacitor lead, varistor burning, etc) and we applied some FA technique to improve the reliability of fan module. After HALT and FA. We suggested some methods to improve the reliability of the module. So, the manufacturer applied design change and part replacement to the new fan module. After the last HALT about the new fan module, we prove the reliability growth

  13. An improved rank assessment method for weibull analysis of reliability data

    Weibull analysis has been applied widely in reliability data analysis. Rank assessment is one of the key steps in weibull analysis, which also induces the original errors. An improved median rank function obtained by genetic algorithms is presented to reduce the errors of rank assessment. (authors)

  14. Reliability analysis of diverse safety logic systems of fast breeder reactor

    Safety Logic for Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) is designed to initiate safety action against Design Basis Events. Based on the outputs of various processing circuits, Safety logic system drives the control rods of the shutdown system. So, Safety Logic system is classified as safety critical system. Therefore, reliability analysis has to be performed. This paper discusses the Reliability analysis of Diverse Safety logic systems of FBRs. For this literature survey on safety critical systems, system reliability approach and standards to be followed like IEC-61508 are discussed in detail. For Programmable Logic device based systems, Hardware Description Languages (HDL) are used. So this paper also discusses the Verification and Validation for HDLs. Finally a case study for the Reliability analysis of Safety logic is discussed. (author)

  15. A survey on the human reliability analysis methods for the design of Korean next generation reactor

    Lee, Yong Hee; Lee, J. W.; Park, J. C.; Kwack, H. Y.; Lee, K. Y.; Park, J. K.; Kim, I. S.; Jung, K. W

    2000-03-01

    Enhanced features through applying recent domestic technologies may characterize the safety and efficiency of KNGR(Korea Next Generation Reactor). Human engineered interface and control room environment are expected to be beneficial to the human aspects of KNGR design. However, since the current method for human reliability analysis is not up to date after THERP/SHARP, it becomes hard to assess the potential of human errors due to both of the positive and negative effect of the design changes in KNGR. This is a state of the art report on the human reliability analysis methods that are potentially available for the application to the KNGR design. We surveyed every technical aspects of existing HRA methods, and compared them in order to obtain the requirements for the assessment of human error potentials within KNGR design. We categorized the more than 10 methods into the first and the second generation according to the suggestion of Dr. Hollnagel. THERP was revisited in detail. ATHEANA proposed by US NRC for an advanced design and CREAM proposed by Dr. Hollnagel were reviewed and compared. We conclude that the key requirements might include the enhancement in the early steps for human error identification and the quantification steps with considerations of more extended error shaping factors over PSFs(performance shaping factors). The utilization of the steps and approaches of ATHEANA and CREAM will be beneficial to the attainment of an appropriate HRA method for KNGR. However, the steps and data from THERP will be still maintained because of the continuity with previous PSA activities in KNGR design.

  16. Reliability analysis of multi-trigger binary systems subject to competing failures

    This paper suggests two combinatorial algorithms for the reliability analysis of multi-trigger binary systems subject to competing failure propagation and failure isolation effects. Propagated failure with global effect (PFGE) is referred to as a failure that not only causes outage to the component from which the failure originates, but also propagates through all other system components causing the entire system failure. However, the propagation effect from the PFGE can be isolated in systems with functional dependence (FDEP) behavior. This paper studies two distinct consequences of PFGE resulting from a competition in the time domain between the failure isolation and failure propagation effects. As compared to existing works on competing failures that are limited to systems with a single FDEP group, this paper considers more complicated cases where the systems have multiple dependent FDEP groups. Analysis of such systems is more challenging because both the occurrence order between the trigger failure event and PFGE from the dependent components and the occurrence order among the multiple trigger failure events have to be considered. Two combinatorial and analytical algorithms are proposed. Both of them have no limitation on the type of time-to-failure distributions for the system components. Their correctness is verified using a Markov-based method. An example of memory systems is analyzed to demonstrate and compare the applications and advantages of the two proposed algorithms. - Highlights: ► Reliability of binary systems with multiple dependent functional dependence groups is analyzed. ► Competing failure propagation and failure isolation effect is considered. ► The proposed algorithms are combinatorial and applicable to any arbitrary type of time-to-failure distributions for system components.

  17. A survey on the human reliability analysis methods for the design of Korean next generation reactor

    Enhanced features through applying recent domestic technologies may characterize the safety and efficiency of KNGR(Korea Next Generation Reactor). Human engineered interface and control room environment are expected to be beneficial to the human aspects of KNGR design. However, since the current method for human reliability analysis is not up to date after THERP/SHARP, it becomes hard to assess the potential of human errors due to both of the positive and negative effect of the design changes in KNGR. This is a state of the art report on the human reliability analysis methods that are potentially available for the application to the KNGR design. We surveyed every technical aspects of existing HRA methods, and compared them in order to obtain the requirements for the assessment of human error potentials within KNGR design. We categorized the more than 10 methods into the first and the second generation according to the suggestion of Dr. Hollnagel. THERP was revisited in detail. ATHEANA proposed by US NRC for an advanced design and CREAM proposed by Dr. Hollnagel were reviewed and compared. We conclude that the key requirements might include the enhancement in the early steps for human error identification and the quantification steps with considerations of more extended error shaping factors over PSFs(performance shaping factors). The utilization of the steps and approaches of ATHEANA and CREAM will be beneficial to the attainment of an appropriate HRA method for KNGR. However, the steps and data from THERP will be still maintained because of the continuity with previous PSA activities in KNGR design

  18. Markov Chains and reliability analysis for reinforced concrete structure service life

    Edna, Possan; Jairo Jos de Oliveira, Andrade.

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available From field studies and the literature, it was found that the degradation of concrete over time can be modelled probabilistically using homogeneous Markov Chains. To confirm this finding, this study presents an application of Markov Chains associated with the reliability analysis of experimental resu [...] lts of the degradation of concrete by chlorides. Experimental results were obtained for chloride penetration originating from non-accelerated tests in concretes in which the water/binder ratio was variable (0.40, 0.50 and 0.60) and that were produced with Pozzolanic Portland cement that was exposed for six months to the action of NaCl. Using a simulation process, the failure and safety probabilities were calculated by reliability and using Markov Chains, a service life project was estimated (a period of corrosion initiation). Compared to a concrete structure itself, the average error of service life predicted using Markov was approximately 14%. The results show a promissory methodology, in combination with the determination of concrete cover thickness, according to the required service life.

  19. Finite State Machine Based Evaluation Model for Web Service Reliability Analysis

    M, Thirumaran; Abarna, S; P, Lakshmi

    2011-01-01

    Now-a-days they are very much considering about the changes to be done at shorter time since the reaction time needs are decreasing every moment. Business Logic Evaluation Model (BLEM) are the proposed solution targeting business logic automation and facilitating business experts to write sophisticated business rules and complex calculations without costly custom programming. BLEM is powerful enough to handle service manageability issues by analyzing and evaluating the computability and traceability and other criteria of modified business logic at run time. The web service and QOS grows expensively based on the reliability of the service. Hence the service provider of today things that reliability is the major factor and any problem in the reliability of the service should overcome then and there in order to achieve the expected level of reliability. In our paper we propose business logic evaluation model for web service reliability analysis using Finite State Machine (FSM) where FSM will be extended to analy...

  20. Determination of Strength for Reliability Analysis of Multilayer Ceramic Capacitors

    A NanoindenterTM equipped with a Vickers indenter was used to measure fracture toughness of Multilayer Capacitors (MLCs) and BaTiO3 blanks. Strength of blanks of 6.3 x 4.7 x 1.1 mm3 was measured by performing three-point flexure using a 4 mm support span. The size of the strength limiting pores in the flexure tests was compared to pore sizes measured on polished MLC cross sections, and it was found that much larger pores were present in the 3-point flexure specimens. Strength distributions for the MLCs were generated using the measured fracture toughness values, assuming the measured pores or second phase inclusions were strength limiting

  1. Reliability of wind farm design tools in complex terrain : A comparative study of commercial software

    Timander, Tobias; Westerlund, Jimmy

    2012-01-01

    A comparative study of two different approaches in wind energy simulations has been made where the aim was to investigate the performance of two commercially available tools. The study includes the linear model by WAsP and the computational fluid dynamic model of WindSim (also featuring an additional forest module). The case studied is a small wind farm located in the inland of Sweden featuring a fairly complex and forested terrain. The results showed similar estimations from both tools and i...

  2. An advanced human reliability analysis methodology: analysis of cognitive errors focused on

    The conventional Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) methods such as THERP/ASEP, HCR and SLIM has been criticised for their deficiency in analysing cognitive errors which occurs during operator's decision making process. In order to supplement the limitation of the conventional methods, an advanced HRA method, what is called the 2nd generation HRA method, including both qualitative analysis and quantitative assessment of cognitive errors has been being developed based on the state-of-the-art theory of cognitive systems engineering and error psychology. The method was developed on the basis of human decision-making model and the relation between the cognitive function and the performance influencing factors. The application of the proposed method to two emergency operation tasks is presented

  3. RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF DOUBLE-LAYER RIBBED CEILING PLATE

    Cheverda P.P.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The research of the stress-strain state of solid plates and slabs of ribs residential building under the action of the main communication loads. The building is modeled as a spatial finite-element frame with constant stiffness characteristics for the two study options for which using software complex Monomah defined parameters of the stress-strain state. For each option slab by using the complex SCAD specifying the calculation was performed on the effects of edges on its carrying capacity and deflections. Analysis of the study results showed that the magnitude of the stress-strain state of the two options differ significantly. Therefore, the construction of industrial and civil use of precast concrete floor slabs using reinforced edges is more economical due to improved soundproofing properties homes.

  4. Reliability and life-cycle analysis of deteriorating systems

    Sánchez-Silva, Mauricio

    2016-01-01

    This book compiles and critically discusses modern engineering system degradation models and their impact on engineering decisions. In particular, the authors focus on modeling the uncertain nature of degradation considering both conceptual discussions and formal mathematical formulations. It also describes the basics concepts and the various modeling aspects of life-cycle analysis (LCA).  It highlights the role of degradation in LCA and defines optimum design and operation parameters. Given the relationship between operational decisions and the performance of the system’s condition over time, maintenance models are also discussed. The concepts and models presented have applications in a large variety of engineering fields such as Civil, Environmental, Industrial, Electrical and Mechanical engineering. However, special emphasis is given to problems related to large infrastructure systems. The book is intended to be used both as a reference resource for researchers and practitioners and as an academic text ...

  5. Developing a highly reliable cae analysis model of the mechanisms that cause bolt loosening in automobiles

    Ken Hashimoto

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we developed a highly reliable CAE analysis model of the mechanisms that cause loosening of bolt fasteners, which has been a bottleneck in automobile development and design, using a technical element model for highly accurate CAE that we had previously developed, and verified its validity. Specifically, drawing on knowledge gained from our clarification of the mechanisms that cause loosening of bolt fasteners using actual machine tests, we conducted an accelerated bench test consisting of a threedimensional vibration load test of the loosening of bolt fasteners used in mounts and rear suspension arms, where interviews with personnel at an automaker indicated loosening was most pronounced, and reproduced actual machine tests with CAE analysis based on a technical element model for highly accurate CAE analysis. Based on these results, we were able to reproduce dynamic behavior in which larger screw pitches (lead angles lead to greater non-uniformity of surface pressure, particularly around the nut seating surface, causing loosening to occur in areas with the lowest surface pressure. Furthermore, we implemented highly accurate CAE analysis with no error (gap compared to actual machine tests.

  6. Three suggestions on the definition of terms for the safety and reliability analysis of digital systems

    As digital instrumentation and control systems are being progressively introduced into nuclear power plants, a growing number of related technical issues are coming to light needing to be resolved. As a result, an understanding of relevant terms and basic concepts becomes increasingly important. Under the framework of the OECD/NEA WGRISK DIGREL Task Group, the authors were involved in reviewing definitions of terms forming the supporting vocabulary for addressing issues related to the safety and reliability analysis of digital instrumentation and control (SRA of DI and C). These definitions were extracted from various standards regulating the disciplines that form the technical and scientific basis of SRA DI and C. The authors discovered that different definitions are provided by different standards within a common discipline and used differently across various disciplines. This paper raises the concern that a common understanding of terms and basic concepts has not yet been established to address the very specific technical issues facing SRA DI and C. Based on the lessons learned from the review of the definitions of interest and the analysis of dependency relationships existing between these definitions, this paper establishes a set of recommendations for the development of a consistent terminology for SRA DI and C. - Highlights: ●We reviewed definitions of terms used in reliability analysis of digital systems. ●Different definitions are provided by different standards within a common discipline. ●Acyclic and cyclic structures of dependency in defining terms are compared. ●Three recommendations for the development of a consistent terminology provided

  7. Human Reliability Analysis in Frame of Probabilistic Safety Assessment Projects in Czech Republic

    Human reliability analysis has proved to be a very important part of probabilistic safety analysis all over the world. It has been also an integral part of both Probabilistic Safety Level-1 studies developed in Czech Republic - Nuclear Power Plant Dukovany Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Nuclear Power Plant Temelin Probabilistic Safety Assessment and most of their consequent applications. The methodology used in human reliability analysis in frame of these studies is described in the first part of the paper. In general, the methodology is based on the well-known and most frequently used methods Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction and ASEP. The up-to-date decision tree method is used to address procedure-driven operator's interventions during plant response to initiating event. Some interesting results of human reliability analysis performed for Nuclear Power Plant Dukovany are described in the second part of the paper. The recommendations resulting from the analysis led to the standardization of some, up to that time, non-standard operator's actions and to the development of procedures for them. Generally, the procedures were found to be deficient from several points of view, what contributed to the decision to develop quite new emergency procedures for Nuclear Power Plant Dukovany. The human reliability analysis projects going on or planned for the very next future are described in the final part of the paper. safety analysis; risk assessment; reliability; nuclear power plants; human factors; errors; Czech Republic; operators; emergencies;

  8. Using the HRA Calculator in Human Reliability Analysis done with Methodology Described in NUREG-1921

    The HRA Calculator is a tool designed to help to the preparation and documentation of the analysis of human reliability in the probabilistic safety analysis (APS) of fire. Collect the tasks required to develop and quantify the probabilities of error in accordance with the methodology described in the NUREG-1921. The HRA Calculator is a database that includes the tasks indicated in the NUREG-1921 for the analysis of human reliability. For the task of quantitative analysis the HRA Calculator includes several methods of quantification for human actions that are performed before and after an accident, one of the main advantages of the HRA Calculator is the systematization and standardization of the analysis of human reliability of fire. It is also a tool that allows the use of criteria more objective to define and quantify human actions, so that models collected, to the extent possible, the reality of the plant as is as operated. (Author)

  9. Comparative analysis of black carbon in soils

    Schmidt, Michael W. I.; Skjemstad, Jan O.; Czimczik, Claudia I.; Glaser, Bruno; Prentice, Ken M.; Gelinas, Yves; Kuhlbusch, Thomas A. J.

    2001-03-01

    Black carbon (BC), produced by incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and vegetation, occurs ubiquitously in soils and sediments. BC exists as a continuum from partly charred material to highly graphitized soot particles, with no general agreement on clear-cut boundaries of definition or analysis. In a comparative analysis, we measured BC forms in eight soil samples by six established methods. All methods involved removal of the non-BC components from the sample by thermal or chemical means or a combination of both. The remaining carbon, operationally defined as BC, was quantified via mass balance, elemental composition or by exploiting benzenecarboxylic acids as molecular markers or applying 13C MAS NMR (magic angle spinning nuclear magnetic resonance) spectroscopy. BC concentrations measured for individual samples vary over 2 orders of magnitude (up to a factor of 571). One possible explanation for this wide range of results is that the individual BC methods rely on operational definitions with clear-cut but different boundaries and developed for specific scientific questions, whereas BC represents a continuum of materials with widely contrasting physicochemical properties. Thus the methods are inherently designed to analytically determine different parts of the continuum, and it is crucial to know how measurements made by different techniques relate to each other. It is clear from this preliminary comparative analysis that a collection of BC reference materials should be established as soon as possible 1 ) to ensure long-term intralaboratory and interlaboratory data quality and 2) to facilitate comparative analyses between different analytical techniques and scientific approaches

  10. Report on the analysis of field data relating to the reliability of solar hot water systems.

    Menicucci, David F. (Building Specialists, Inc., Albuquerque, NM)

    2011-07-01

    Utilities are overseeing the installations of thousand of solar hot water (SHW) systems. Utility planners have begun to ask for quantitative measures of the expected lifetimes of these systems so that they can properly forecast their loads. This report, which augments a 2009 reliability analysis effort by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), addresses this need. Additional reliability data have been collected, added to the existing database, and analyzed. The results are presented. Additionally, formal reliability theory is described, including the bathtub curve, which is the most common model to characterize the lifetime reliability character of systems, and for predicting failures in the field. Reliability theory is used to assess the SNL reliability database. This assessment shows that the database is heavily weighted with data that describe the reliability of SHW systems early in their lives, during the warranty period. But it contains few measured data to describe the ends of SHW systems lives. End-of-life data are the most critical ones to define sufficiently the reliability of SHW systems in order to answer the questions that the utilities pose. Several ideas are presented for collecting the required data, including photometric analysis of aerial photographs of installed collectors, statistical and neural network analysis of energy bills from solar homes, and the development of simple algorithms to allow conventional SHW controllers to announce system failures and record the details of the event, similar to how aircraft black box recorders perform. Some information is also presented about public expectations for the longevity of a SHW system, information that is useful in developing reliability goals.

  11. Comparative Analysis of Hand Gesture Recognition Techniques

    Arpana K. Patel

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available During past few years, human hand gesture for interaction with computing devices has continues to be active area of research. In this paper survey of hand gesture recognition is provided. Hand Gesture Recognition is contained three stages: Pre-processing, Feature Extraction or matching and Classification or recognition. Each stage contains different methods and techniques. In this paper define small description of different methods used for hand gesture recognition in existing system with comparative analysis of all method with its benefits and drawbacks are provided.

  12. A Comparative Study on Error Analysis

    Wu, Xiaoli; Zhang, Chun

    2015-01-01

    of errors in the written and spoken production of L2 learners has a long tradition in L2 pedagogy. Yet, in teaching and learning Chinese as a foreign language (CFL), only handful studies have been made either to define the ‘error’ in a pedagogically insightful way or to empirically investigate the...... occurrence of errors either in linguistic or pedagogical terms. The purpose of the current study is to demonstrate the theoretical and practical relevance of error analysis approach in CFL by investigating two cases - (1) Belgian (L1) learners’ use of Chinese (L2) comparative sentences in written production...

  13. First and second order approximate reliability analysis methods using evidence theory

    The first order approximate reliability method (FARM) and second order approximate reliability method (SARM) are formulated based on evidence theory in this paper. The proposed methods can significantly improve the computational efficiency for evidence-theory-based reliability analysis, while generally provide sufficient precision. First, the most probable focal element (MPFE), an important concept as the most probable point (MPP) in probability-theory-based reliability analysis, is searched using a uniformity approach. Subsequently, FARM approximates the limit-state function around the MPFE using the linear Taylor series, while SARM approximates it using the quadratic Taylor series. With the first and second order approximations, the reliability interval composed of the belief measure and the plausibility measure is efficiently obtained for FARM and SARM, respectively. Two simple problems with explicit expressions and one engineering application of vehicle frontal impact are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods. - Highlights: • The first order approximate reliability method using evidence theory is proposed. • The second order approximate reliability method using evidence theory is proposed. • The proposed methods can significantly improve the computational efficiency. • The proposed methods can provide sufficient accuracy for general engineering problems

  14. Model of the reliability analysis of the distributed computer systems with architecture "client-server"

    Kovalev, I. V.; Zelenkov, P. V.; Karaseva, M. V.; Tsarev, M. Yu; Tsarev, R. Yu

    2015-01-01

    The paper considers the problem of the analysis of distributed computer systems reliability with client-server architecture. A distributed computer system is a set of hardware and software for implementing the following main functions: processing, storage, transmission and data protection. This paper discusses the distributed computer systems architecture "client-server". The paper presents the scheme of the distributed computer system functioning represented as a graph where vertices are the functional state of the system and arcs are transitions from one state to another depending on the prevailing conditions. In reliability analysis we consider such reliability indicators as the probability of the system transition in the stopping state and accidents, as well as the intensity of these transitions. The proposed model allows us to obtain correlations for the reliability parameters of the distributed computer system without any assumptions about the distribution laws of random variables and the elements number in the system.

  15. Application of the fault tree analysis for assessment of power system reliability

    A new method for power system reliability analysis using the fault tree analysis approach is developed. The method is based on fault trees generated for each load point of the power system. The fault trees are related to disruption of energy delivery from generators to the specific load points. Quantitative evaluation of the fault trees, which represents a standpoint for assessment of reliability of power delivery, enables identification of the most important elements in the power system. The algorithm of the computer code, which facilitates the application of the method, has been applied to the IEEE test system. The power system reliability was assessed and the main contributors to power system reliability have been identified, both qualitatively and quantitatively

  16. An application of the fault tree analysis for the power system reliability estimation

    The power system is a complex system with its main function to produce, transfer and provide consumers with electrical energy. Combinations of failures of components in the system can result in a failure of power delivery to certain load points and in some cases in a full blackout of power system. The power system reliability directly affects safe and reliable operation of nuclear power plants because the loss of offsite power is a significant contributor to the core damage frequency in probabilistic safety assessments of nuclear power plants. The method, which is based on the integration of the fault tree analysis with the analysis of the power flows in the power system, was developed and implemented for power system reliability assessment. The main contributors to the power system reliability are identified, both quantitatively and qualitatively. (author)

  17. Methodological Approach for Performing Human Reliability and Error Analysis in Railway Transportation System

    Fabio De Felice

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Today, billions of dollars are being spent annually world wide to develop, manufacture, and operate transportation system such trains, ships, aircraft, and motor vehicles. Around 70 to 90 percent oftransportation crashes are, directly or indirectly, the result of human error. In fact, with the development of technology, system reliability has increased dramatically during the past decades, while human reliability has remained unchanged over the same period. Accordingly, human error is now considered as the most significant source of accidents or incidents in safety-critical systems. The aim of the paper is the proposal of a methodological approach to improve the transportation system reliability and in particular railway transportation system. The methodology presented is based on Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA and Human Reliability Analysis (HRA.

  18. Reliability analysis of semi-automatic train door systems in service on today's rolling stock of the SNCB

    an der Gucht, W.; Vanwalleghem, D.; Bonne, H.; EECKHOUT, W.; De Waele, W; De Baets, P.

    2011-01-01

    This article analyses the reliability of semi-automatic train door systems that are in use on today’s rolling stock of the SNCB. For the analysis several databases of the SNCB concerning both operation and maintenance were thoroughly screened. These databases are briefly explained and scaling factors are applied to compare the performance of different series of rolling stock relative to each other. Conclusions are made out of the available data.

  19. Application possibilities of analytical methods in the reliability analysis of technical systems

    A summarizing report is given on 1) application of the reliability analysis for the quantitative safety assessment, for the determination of weak positions, investigation of operational and maintenance strategies, assessment of alternative design concepts; 2) installation conditions of the reliability programmes; 3) calculation processes for the determination of reliability characteristics and to determine the sectional amounts (truth table, success paths). Availability calculations for a 4-loop emergency system and calculations of three design concepts of the station service system are quoted as examples. (HP/LH)

  20. Probabilistic risk assessment course documentation. Volume 5. System reliability and analysis techniques Session D - quantification

    This course in System Reliability and Analysis Techniques focuses on the probabilistic quantification of accident sequences and the link between accident sequences and consequences. Other sessions in this series focus on the quantification of system reliability and the development of event trees and fault trees. This course takes the viewpoint that event tree sequences or combinations of system failures and success are available and that Boolean equations for system fault trees have been developed and are available. 93 figs., 11 tabs