WorldWideScience

Sample records for reliability comparative analysis

  1. A comparative reliability analysis of free-piston Stirling machines

    Schreiber, Jeffrey G.

    2001-02-01

    A free-piston Stirling power convertor is being developed for use in an advanced radioisotope power system to provide electric power for NASA deep space missions. These missions are typically long lived, lasting for up to 14 years. The Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for providing the radioisotope power system for the NASA missions, and has managed the development of the free-piston power convertor for this application. The NASA Glenn Research Center has been involved in the development of Stirling power conversion technology for over 25 years and is currently providing support to DOE. Due to the nature of the potential missions, long life and high reliability are important features for the power system. Substantial resources have been spent on the development of long life Stirling cryocoolers for space applications. As a very general statement, free-piston Stirling power convertors have many features in common with free-piston Stirling cryocoolers, however there are also significant differences. For example, designs exist for both power convertors and cryocoolers that use the flexure bearing support system to provide noncontacting operation of the close-clearance moving parts. This technology and the operating experience derived from one application may be readily applied to the other application. This similarity does not pertain in the case of outgassing and contamination. In the cryocooler, the contaminants normally condense in the critical heat exchangers and foul the performance. In the Stirling power convertor just the opposite is true as contaminants condense on non-critical surfaces. A methodology was recently published that provides a relative comparison of reliability, and is applicable to systems. The methodology has been applied to compare the reliability of a Stirling cryocooler relative to that of a free-piston Stirling power convertor. The reliability analysis indicates that the power convertor should be able to have superior reliability

  2. Reliability on Intra-Laboratory and Inter-Laboratory Data of Hair Mineral Analysis Comparing with Blood Analysis

    Namkoong, Sun; Hong, Seung Phil; Kim, Myung Hwa; Park, Byung Cheol

    2013-01-01

    Background Nowadays, although its clinical value remains controversial institutions utilize hair mineral analysis. Arguments about the reliability of hair mineral analysis persist, and there have been evaluations of commercial laboratories performing hair mineral analysis. Objective The objective of this study was to assess the reliability of intra-laboratory and inter-laboratory data at three commercial laboratories conducting hair mineral analysis, compared to serum mineral analysis. Method...

  3. Small nuclear power reactor emergency electric power supply system reliability comparative analysis

    This work presents an analysis of the reliability of the emergency power supply system, of a small size nuclear power reactor. Three different configurations are investigated and their reliability analyzed. The fault tree method is used as the main tool of analysis. The work includes a bibliographic review of emergency diesel generator reliability and a discussion of the design requirements applicable to emergency electrical systems. The influence of common cause failure influences is considered using the beta factor model. The operator action is considered using human failure probabilities. A parametric analysis shows the strong dependence between the reactor safety and the loss of offsite electric power supply. It is also shown that common cause failures can be a major contributor to the system reliability. (author)

  4. Probabilistic-statistical analysis of WWER fuel element leaking causes and comparative analysis of the fuel reliability indicator on NPPs with WWER and PWR reactors

    The results of a comparative analysis of the fuel reliability indicator on NPPs with WWER and PWR reactors are presented in this report. As an exponent for a comparative reliability analysis of the WANO fuel reliability indicator is used. The fuel reliability indicator provides a general measure of the extent to which the reactor coolant activity is increased as a result of fuel damage. The analysis of fuel reliability indicator values during 1991-2001 at NPPs with WWER-1000 and WWER-440 reactors (Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Finland) is carried out. The high level of WWER fuel reliability is scored except for cases of fuel failures in separate operating periods of some units. (author)

  5. Power electronics reliability analysis.

    Smith, Mark A.; Atcitty, Stanley

    2009-12-01

    This report provides the DOE and industry with a general process for analyzing power electronics reliability. The analysis can help with understanding the main causes of failures, downtime, and cost and how to reduce them. One approach is to collect field maintenance data and use it directly to calculate reliability metrics related to each cause. Another approach is to model the functional structure of the equipment using a fault tree to derive system reliability from component reliability. Analysis of a fictitious device demonstrates the latter process. Optimization can use the resulting baseline model to decide how to improve reliability and/or lower costs. It is recommended that both electric utilities and equipment manufacturers make provisions to collect and share data in order to lay the groundwork for improving reliability into the future. Reliability analysis helps guide reliability improvements in hardware and software technology including condition monitoring and prognostics and health management.

  6. Human reliability analysis

    The authors present a treatment of human reliability analysis incorporating an introduction to probabilistic risk assessment for nuclear power generating stations. They treat the subject according to the framework established for general systems theory. Draws upon reliability analysis, psychology, human factors engineering, and statistics, integrating elements of these fields within a systems framework. Provides a history of human reliability analysis, and includes examples of the application of the systems approach

  7. Comparative Study on Response Surfaces for Reliability Analysis of Spatially Variable Soil Slope

    李亮; 褚雪松

    2015-01-01

    This paper focuses on the performance of the second-order polynomial-based response surfaces on the reliability of spatially variable soil slope. A single response surface constructed to approximate the slope system failure performance functionG(X) (called single RS) and multiple response surfaces constructed on finite number of slip surfaces (called multiple RS) are developed, respectively. Single RS and multiple RS are applied to evaluate the system failure probability pf for a cohesive soil slope together with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). It is found thatpf calculated by single RS deviates significantly from that obtained by searching a large number of potential slip surfaces, and this deviation becomes insignificant with the decrease of the number of random variables or the increase of the scale of fluctuation. In other words, single RS cannot approximateG(X) with reasonable accuracy. The value ofpf from multiple response surfaces fits well with that obtained by searching a large number of potential slip surfaces. That is, multiple RS can estimateG(X) with reasonable accuracy.

  8. Introduction to reliability analysis

    Reliability analysis is concerned with the analysis of devices and systems whose individual components are prone to failure. This textbook presents an introduction to reliability analysis of repairable and nonrepairable systems. It is based on courses given to both undergraduate and graduate students of engineering and statistics as well as in workshops for professional engineers and scientists. The book concentrates on the methodology of the subject and on understanding theoretical results rather than on its theoretical development. An intrinsic aspect of reliability analysis is that the failure of components is best modelled using techniques drawn from probability and statistics. The author covers all the basic concepts required from these subjects and covers the main modern reliability analysis techniques thoroughly. These include: the graphical analysis of life data, maximum likelihood estimation, and Bayesian estimation. Throughout, the emphsis is on the practicalities of the subject with numerous examples drawn from industrial and engineering settings. (orig.) With 50 figs

  9. Comparing the treatment of uncertainty in Bayesian networks and fuzzy expert systems used for a human reliability analysis application

    The use of expert systems can be helpful to improve the transparency and repeatability of assessments in areas of risk analysis with limited data available. In this field, human reliability analysis (HRA) is no exception, and, in particular, dependence analysis is an HRA task strongly based on analyst judgement. The analysis of dependence among Human Failure Events refers to the assessment of the effect of an earlier human failure on the probability of the subsequent ones. This paper analyses and compares two expert systems, based on Bayesian Belief Networks and Fuzzy Logic (a Fuzzy Expert System, FES), respectively. The comparison shows that a BBN approach should be preferred in all the cases characterized by quantifiable uncertainty in the input (i.e. when probability distributions can be assigned to describe the input parameters uncertainty), since it provides a satisfactory representation of the uncertainty and its output is directly interpretable for use within PSA. On the other hand, in cases characterized by very limited knowledge, an analyst may feel constrained by the probabilistic framework, which requires assigning probability distributions for describing uncertainty. In these cases, the FES seems to lead to a more transparent representation of the input and output uncertainty. - Highlights: • We analyse treatment of uncertainty in two expert systems. • We compare a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) and a Fuzzy Expert System (FES). • We focus on the input assessment, inference engines and output assessment. • We focus on an application problem of interest for human reliability analysis. • We emphasize the application rather than math to reach non-BBN or FES specialists

  10. Comparative analysis of reliability of emergency power system of Bushehr nuclear power plant using PSA and Markov method

    Design of emergency power system of a nuclear power plant is important considering reliability and redundancy of systems, due to its share in the risk of the plant. Reliability of emergency power system of Bushehr nuclear power plant is evaluated and compared for both KWU and WWER design using fault tree/event tree and also Markov

  11. Discourse Analysis Procedures: Reliability Issues.

    Hux, Karen; And Others

    1997-01-01

    A study evaluated and compared four methods of assessing reliability on one discourse analysis procedure--a modified version of Damico's Clinical Discourse Analysis. The methods were Pearson product-moment correlations; interobserver agreement; Cohen's kappa; and generalizability coefficients. The strengths and weaknesses of the methods are…

  12. Reliability of bioimpedance analysis compared with other adiposity measurements in children: the FLVS II Study. : Bioimpedance fat measurement in children

    Kettaneh, Adrien; Heude, Barbara; Lommez, Agnès; Borys, Jean-Michel; Ducimetière, Pierre; Charles, Marie-Aline

    2005-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the reproducibility of the measurement of% body fat by bipedal biometrical impedance analysis (BIA) compared with anthropometric measurements of adiposity in children and the correlations between these methods in children and adults.METHODS: A cross-sectional study in a total of 1080 adults and children enrolled in 1999 in the Fleurbaix-Laventie Ville Sant?I (FLVS II) population-based study in northern France. The reproducibility of anthropometrical and BIA methods was ...

  13. Failure Analysis for Improved Reliability

    Sood, Bhanu

    2016-01-01

    Outline: Section 1 - What is reliability and root cause? Section 2 - Overview of failure mechanisms. Section 3 - Failure analysis techniques (1. Non destructive analysis techniques, 2. Destructive Analysis, 3. Materials Characterization). Section 4 - Summary and Closure

  14. Integrating reliability analysis and design

    This report describes the Interactive Reliability Analysis Project and demonstrates the advantages of using computer-aided design systems (CADS) in reliability analysis. Common cause failure problems require presentations of systems, analysis of fault trees, and evaluation of solutions to these. Results have to be communicated between the reliability analyst and the system designer. Using a computer-aided design system saves time and money in the analysis of design. Computer-aided design systems lend themselves to cable routing, valve and switch lists, pipe routing, and other component studies. At EG and G Idaho, Inc., the Applicon CADS is being applied to the study of water reactor safety systems

  15. Reliability analysis of interdependent lattices

    Limiao, Zhang; Daqing, Li; Pengju, Qin; Bowen, Fu; Yinan, Jiang; Zio, Enrico; Rui, Kang

    2016-06-01

    Network reliability analysis has drawn much attention recently due to the risks of catastrophic damage in networked infrastructures. These infrastructures are dependent on each other as a result of various interactions. However, most of the reliability analyses of these interdependent networks do not consider spatial constraints, which are found important for robustness of infrastructures including power grid and transport systems. Here we study the reliability properties of interdependent lattices with different ranges of spatial constraints. Our study shows that interdependent lattices with strong spatial constraints are more resilient than interdependent Erdös-Rényi networks. There exists an intermediate range of spatial constraints, at which the interdependent lattices have minimal resilience.

  16. Reliability Analysis of Wind Turbines

    Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2008-01-01

    In order to minimise the total expected life-cycle costs of a wind turbine it is important to estimate the reliability level for all components in the wind turbine. This paper deals with reliability analysis for the tower and blades of onshore wind turbines placed in a wind farm. The limit states...... consideres are in the ultimate limit state (ULS) extreme conditions in the standstill position and extreme conditions during operating. For wind turbines, where the magnitude of the loads is influenced by the control system, the ultimate limit state can occur in both cases. In the fatigue limit state (FLS......) the reliability level for a wind turbine placed in a wind farm is considered, and wake effects from neighbouring wind turbines is taken into account. An illustrative example with calculation of the reliability for mudline bending of the tower is considered. In the example the design is determined...

  17. Computational methods for efficient structural reliability and reliability sensitivity analysis

    Wu, Y.-T.

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents recent developments in efficient structural reliability analysis methods. The paper proposes an efficient, adaptive importance sampling (AIS) method that can be used to compute reliability and reliability sensitivities. The AIS approach uses a sampling density that is proportional to the joint PDF of the random variables. Starting from an initial approximate failure domain, sampling proceeds adaptively and incrementally with the goal of reaching a sampling domain that is slightly greater than the failure domain to minimize over-sampling in the safe region. Several reliability sensitivity coefficients are proposed that can be computed directly and easily from the above AIS-based failure points. These probability sensitivities can be used for identifying key random variables and for adjusting design to achieve reliability-based objectives. The proposed AIS methodology is demonstrated using a turbine blade reliability analysis problem.

  18. Integration of reliability and tolerance effect analysis

    Brombacher, A.C.; Boer; Loo, van 't, J.

    1989-01-01

    The authors focus on the development of systems with online optimized reliability. They argue that in the case of online analysis, reliability analysis should have the same importance as functional analysis currently has, and that reliability should be integrated in a design. Further the function of a quality assurance team is only to check this built-in reliability, not to make a functional correct design also reliable. Therefore the designer (or design team) should be able to perform reliab...

  19. Integration of reliability and tolerance effect analysis

    Brombacher, A.C.; Boer, de H.A.; Loo, van 't J.

    1989-01-01

    The authors focus on the development of systems with online optimized reliability. They argue that in the case of online analysis, reliability analysis should have the same importance as functional analysis currently has, and that reliability should be integrated in a design. Further the function of

  20. Software reliability analysis in probabilistic risk analysis

    Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) is a tool which can reveal shortcomings of the NPP design in general. PRA analysts have not had sufficient guiding principles in modelling particular digital components malfunctions. Digital I and C systems are mostly analysed simply and the software reliability estimates are engineering judgments often lacking a proper justification. The OECD/NEA Working Group RISK's task DIGREL develops a taxonomy of failure modes of digital I and C systems. The EU FP7 project HARMONICS develops software reliability estimation method based on an analytic approach and Bayesian belief network. (author)

  1. Gate-Level Circuit Reliability Analysis: A Survey

    Ran Xiao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Circuit reliability has become a growing concern in today’s nanoelectronics, which motivates strong research interest over the years in reliability analysis and reliability-oriented circuit design. While quite a few approaches for circuit reliability analysis have been reported, there is a lack of comparative studies on their pros and cons in terms of both accuracy and efficiency. This paper provides an overview of some typical methods for reliability analysis with focus on gate-level circuits, large or small, with or without reconvergent fanouts. It is intended to help the readers gain an insight into the reliability issues, and their complexity as well as optional solutions. Understanding the reliability analysis is also a first step towards advanced circuit designs for improved reliability in the future research.

  2. An accuracy analysis of Army Material System Analysis Activity discrete reliability growth model

    Thalieb, Rio M.

    1988-01-01

    The accuracy of the discrete reliability growth model developed by Army Material System Analysis Activity (AMSAA) is analysed. The mean, standard deviation, and 95 precent confidence interval of the estimate of reliability resulting from simulating the AMSAA discrete reliability growth model are computed. The mean of the estimate of reliability from the AMSAA discrete reliability growth model is compared with the mean of the reliability estimate using the Exponential discrete reliability grow...

  3. On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

    The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person's state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs

  4. Reliability Analysis of Money Habitudes

    Delgadillo, Lucy M.; Bushman, Brittani S.

    2015-01-01

    Use of the Money Habitudes exercise has gained popularity among various financial professionals. This article reports on the reliability of this resource. A survey administered to young adults at a western state university was conducted, and each Habitude or "domain" was analyzed using Cronbach's alpha procedures. Results showed all six…

  5. How to assess and compare inter-rater reliability, agreement and correlation of ratings: an exemplary analysis of mother-father and parent-teacher expressive vocabulary rating pairs

    MargaritaStolarova

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This report has two main purposes. First, we combine well-known analytical approaches to conduct a comprehensive assessment of agreement and correlation of rating-pairs and to dis-entangle these often confused concepts, providing a best-practice example on concrete data and a tutorial for future reference. Second, we explore whether a screening questionnaire deve-loped for use with parents can be reliably employed with daycare teachers when assessing early expressive vocabulary. A total of 53 vocabulary rating pairs (34 parent-teacher and 19 mother-father pairs collected for two-year-old children (12 bilingual are evaluated. First, inter-rater reliability both within and across subgroups is assessed using the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC. Next, based on this analysis of reliability and on the test-retest reliability of the employed tool, inter-rater agreement is analyzed, magnitude and direction of rating differences are considered. Finally, Pearson correlation coefficients of standardized vocabulary scores are calculated and compared across subgroups. The results underline the necessity to distinguish between reliability measures, agreement and correlation. They also demonstrate the impact of the employed reliability on agreement evaluations. This study provides evidence that parent-teacher ratings of children’s early vocabulary can achieve agreement and correlation comparable to those of mother-father ratings on the assessed vocabulary scale. Bilingualism of the evaluated child decreased the likelihood of raters’ agreement. We conclude that future reports of agree-ment, correlation and reliability of ratings will benefit from better definition of terms and stricter methodological approaches. The methodological tutorial provided here holds the potential to increase comparability across empirical reports and can help improve research practices and knowledge transfer to educational and therapeutic settings.

  6. Reliability analysis of software based safety functions

    The methods applicable in the reliability analysis of software based safety functions are described in the report. Although the safety functions also include other components, the main emphasis in the report is on the reliability analysis of software. The check list type qualitative reliability analysis methods, such as failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), are described, as well as the software fault tree analysis. The safety analysis based on the Petri nets is discussed. The most essential concepts and models of quantitative software reliability analysis are described. The most common software metrics and their combined use with software reliability models are discussed. The application of software reliability models in PSA is evaluated; it is observed that the recent software reliability models do not produce the estimates needed in PSA directly. As a result from the study some recommendations and conclusions are drawn. The need of formal methods in the analysis and development of software based systems, the applicability of qualitative reliability engineering methods in connection to PSA and the need to make more precise the requirements for software based systems and their analyses in the regulatory guides should be mentioned. (orig.). (46 refs., 13 figs., 1 tab.)

  7. A comparative method for improving the reliability of brittle components

    Calculating the absolute reliability built in a product is often an extremely difficult task because of the complexity of the physical processes and physical mechanisms underlying the failure modes, the complex influence of the environment and the operational loads, the variability associated with reliability-critical design parameters and the non-robustness of the prediction models. Predicting the probability of failure of loaded components with complex shape for example is associated with uncertainty related to: the type of existing flaws initiating fracture, the size distributions of the flaws, the locations and the orientations of the flaws and the microstructure and its local properties. Capturing these types of uncertainty, necessary for a correct prediction of the reliability of components is a formidable task which does not need to be addressed if a comparative reliability method is employed, especially if the focus is on reliability improvement. The new comparative method for improving the resistance to failure initiated by flaws proposed here is based on an assumed failure criterion, an equation linking the probability that a flaw will be critical with the probability of failure associated with the component and a finite element solution for the distribution of the principal stresses in the loaded component. The probability that a flaw will be critical is determined directly, after a finite number of steps equal to the number of finite elements into which the component is divided. An advantage of the proposed comparative method for improving the resistance to failure initiated by flaws is that it does not rely on a Monte Carlo simulation and does not depend on knowledge of the size distribution of the flaws and the material properties. This essentially eliminates uncertainty associated with the material properties and the population of flaws. On the basis of a theoretical analysis we also show that, contrary to the common belief, in general, for non

  8. Combination of structural reliability and interval analysis

    Zhiping Qiu; Di Yang; saac Elishakoff

    2008-01-01

    In engineering applications,probabilistic reliability theory appears to be presently the most important method,however,in many cases precise probabilistic reliability theory cannot be considered as adequate and credible model of the real state of actual affairs.In this paper,we developed a hybrid of probabilistic and non-probabilistic reliability theory,which describes the structural uncertain parameters as interval variables when statistical data are found insufficient.By using the interval analysis,a new method for calculating the interval of the structural reliability as well as the reliability index is introduced in this paper,and the traditional probabilistic theory is incorporated with the interval analysis.Moreover,the new method preserves the useful part of the traditional probabilistic reliability theory,but removes the restriction of its strict requirement on data acquisition.Example is presented to demonstrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed theory.

  9. Integrated Methodology for Software Reliability Analysis

    Marian Pompiliu CRISTESCU

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The most used techniques to ensure safety and reliability of the systems are applied together as a whole, and in most cases, the software components are usually overlooked or to little analyzed. The present paper describes the applicability of fault trees analysis software system, analysis defined as Software Fault Tree Analysis (SFTA, fault trees are evaluated using binary decision diagrams, all of these being integrated and used with help from Java library reliability.

  10. Reliability analysis of continuous fiber composite laminates

    Thomas, David J.; Wetherhold, Robert C.

    1991-01-01

    This paper describes two methods, the maximum distortion energy (MDE) and the principle of independent action (PIA), developed for the analysis of the reliability of a single continuous composite lamina. It is shown that, for the typical laminated plate structure, the individual lamina reliabilities can be combined in order to produce the upper and the lower bounds of reliability for the laminate, similar in nature to the bounds on properties produced from variational elastic methods. These limits were derived for both the interactive and the model failure considerations. Analytical expressions were also derived for the sensitivity of the reliability limits with respect to changes in the Weibull parameters and in loading conditions.

  11. Analysis of information security reliability: A tutorial

    This article presents a concise reliability analysis of network security abstracted from stochastic modeling, reliability, and queuing theories. Network security analysis is composed of threats, their impacts, and recovery of the failed systems. A unique framework with a collection of the key reliability models is presented here to guide the determination of the system reliability based on the strength of malicious acts and performance of the recovery processes. A unique model, called Attack-obstacle model, is also proposed here for analyzing systems with immunity growth features. Most computer science curricula do not contain courses in reliability modeling applicable to different areas of computer engineering. Hence, the topic of reliability analysis is often too diffuse to most computer engineers and researchers dealing with network security. This work is thus aimed at shedding some light on this issue, which can be useful in identifying models, their assumptions and practical parameters for estimating the reliability of threatened systems and for assessing the performance of recovery facilities. It can also be useful for the classification of processes and states regarding the reliability of information systems. Systems with stochastic behaviors undergoing queue operations and random state transitions can also benefit from the approaches presented here. - Highlights: • A concise survey and tutorial in model-based reliability analysis applicable to information security. • A framework of key modeling approaches for assessing reliability of networked systems. • The framework facilitates quantitative risk assessment tasks guided by stochastic modeling and queuing theory. • Evaluation of approaches and models for modeling threats, failures, impacts, and recovery analysis of information systems

  12. Space Mission Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Project

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The purpose of this project is to extend current ground-based Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) techniques to a long-duration, space-based tool to more effectively...

  13. Production Facility System Reliability Analysis Report

    Dale, Crystal Buchanan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Klein, Steven Karl [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-10-06

    This document describes the reliability, maintainability, and availability (RMA) modeling of the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) design for the Closed Loop Helium Cooling System (CLHCS) planned for the NorthStar accelerator-based 99Mo production facility. The current analysis incorporates a conceptual helium recovery system, beam diagnostics, and prototype control system into the reliability analysis. The results from the 1000 hr blower test are addressed.

  14. How useful and reliable are disaster databases in the context of climate and global change? A comparative case study analysis in Peru

    Huggel, C.; Raissig, A.; Rohrer, M.; Romero, G.; Diaz, A.; Salzmann, N.

    2015-03-01

    Damage caused by weather- and climate-related disasters have increased over the past decades, and growing exposure and wealth have been identified as main drivers of this increase. Disaster databases are a primary tool for the analysis of disaster characteristics and trends at global or national scales, and they support disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, the quality, consistency and completeness of different disaster databases are highly variable. Even though such variation critically influences the outcome of any study, comparative analyses of different databases are still rare to date. Furthermore, there is an unequal geographic distribution of current disaster trend studies, with developing countries being underrepresented. Here, we analyze three different disaster databases in the developing-country context of Peru: a global database (Emergency Events Database: EM-DAT), a multinational Latin American database (DesInventar) and a national database (Peruvian National Information System for the Prevention of Disasters: SINPAD). The analysis is performed across three dimensions: (1) spatial scales, from local to regional (provincial) and national scale; (2) timescales, from single events to decadal trends; and (3) disaster categories and metrics, including the number of single disaster event occurrence, or people killed and affected. Results show limited changes in disaster occurrence in the Cusco and ApurÍmac regions in southern Peru over the past four decades but strong positive trends in people affected at the national scale. We furthermore found large variations of the disaster metrics studied over different spatial and temporal scales, depending on the disaster database analyzed. We conclude and recommend that the type, method and source of documentation should be carefully evaluated for any analysis of disaster databases; reporting criteria should be improved and documentation efforts strengthened.

  15. How useful and reliable are disaster databases in the context of climate and global change? A comparative case study analysis in Peru

    C. Huggel

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Loss and damage caused by weather and climate related disasters have increased over the past decades, and growing exposure and wealth have been identified as main drivers of this increase. Disaster databases are a primary tool for the analysis of disaster characteristics and trends at global or national scales, and support disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, the quality, consistency and completeness of different disaster databases are highly variable. Even though such variation critically influences the outcome of any study, comparative analyses of different disaster databases are still rare to date. Furthermore, there is an unequal geographic distribution of current disaster trend studies, with developing countries being under-represented. Here, we analyze three different disaster databases for the developing country context of Peru; a global database (EM-DAT, a regional Latin American (DesInventar and a national database (SINPAD. The analysis is performed across three dimensions, (1 spatial scales, from local to regional (provincial and national scale; (2 time scales, from single events to decadal trends; and (3 disaster categories and metrics, including the number of disaster occurrence, and damage metrics such as people killed and affected. Results show limited changes in disaster occurrence in the Cusco and Apurímac regions in southern Peru over the past four decades, but strong trends in people affected at the national scale. We furthermore found large variations of the disaster parameters studied over different spatial and temporal scales, depending on the disaster database analyzed. We conclude and recommend that the type, method and source of documentation should be carefully evaluated for any analysis of disaster databases; reporting criteria should be improved and documentation efforts strengthened.

  16. Logic reliability analysis of adaptive control strategies

    An approach is developed for the evaluation of the reliability of logic of adaptive control strategies, taking into account logic structural complexity and potential failure of programming modules. Flaws in the control system algorithm may not be discovered during debugging or initial testing and may only affect the performance under abnormal situations although the system may appear reliable in normal operations. Considering an adaptive control system designed for use in control of equipment employed in nuclear power stations, logic reliability evaluation is demonstrated. The approach given is applicable to any other designs and may be used to compare different control system logic structures from the reliability viewpoint. Evaluation of the reliability of control systems is essential to automated operation of equipment used in nuclear power plants. (author)

  17. Reliability graph with general gates (RGGG). A novel method for reliability analysis

    There are several methods for system reliability analysis such as reliability graphs, fault tree analyses, Markov chains, and Monte Carlo simulations. Among the existing methods, the reliability graphs are the most intuitive modeling method, but they are not widely used due to their limited expression power. In this paper, an intuitive and practical method for system reliability analysis named the reliability graph with general gates (RGGG) is reviewed. The proposed method introduces general gates to the conventional reliability graph method, which creates a one-to-one match from the actual structure of the system to the reliability graph of the system. A quantitative evaluation method is proposed by transforming the RGGG to an equivalent Bayesian network without losing the intuitiveness of the model. In addition, a method of analyzing the dynamic systems and repairable systems which uses the RGGG is introduced, and appropriate algorithms for the quantitative analyses are explained. It is concluded that the RGGG method is intuitive and easy-to-use in the analyses of static, dynamic, and repairable systems compared with other methods while its analysis results are the same as those of other methods. (author)

  18. Reliability Analysis of Adhesive Bonded Scarf Joints

    Kimiaeifar, Amin; Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Lund, Erik;

    2012-01-01

    element analysis (FEA). For the reliability analysis a design equation is considered which is related to a deterministic code-based design equation where reliability is secured by partial safety factors together with characteristic values for the material properties and loads. The failure criteria are...... the FEA model, and a sensitivity analysis on the influence of various geometrical parameters and material properties on the maximum stress is conducted. Because the yield behavior of many polymeric structural adhesives is dependent on both deviatoric and hydrostatic stress components, different ratios...

  19. A comparative study on the HW reliability assessment methods for digital I and C equipment

    Jung, Hoan Sung; Sung, T. Y.; Eom, H. S.; Park, J. K.; Kang, H. G.; Lee, G. Y. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea); Kim, M. C. [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejeon (Korea); Jun, S. T. [KHNP, Taejeon (Korea)

    2002-03-01

    It is necessary to predict or to evaluate the reliability of electronic equipment for the probabilistic safety analysis of digital instrument and control equipment. But most databases for the reliability prediction have no data for the up-to-date equipment and the failure modes are not classified. The prediction results for the specific component show different values according to the methods and databases. For boards and systems each method shows different values than others also. This study is for reliability prediction of PDC system for Wolsong NPP1 as a digital I and C equipment. Various reliability prediction methods and failure databases are used in calculation of the reliability to compare the effects of sensitivity and accuracy of each model and database. Many considerations for the reliability assessment of digital systems are derived with the results of this study. 14 refs., 19 figs., 15 tabs. (Author)

  20. RHR system reliability analysis of Krsko NPP

    In this paper Systems reliability analysis is applied to residual heat Removal System in Krsko NPP. Fault tree method is used. Qualitative analysis of the fault tree was made using FTAP-2 computer code, and quantitative using IMPORT code. results are evaluated and their possible application is given. (author)

  1. Reliability analysis on marine reactor systems

    Reliability analysis was performed on the electric power supply system and residual heat removal systems of a marine reactor. Fault trees were constructed considering the functions of systems, and cumulative failure probability or unavailability was calculated by means of analytical method and/or Monte Carlo simulation. For the analysis of stand-by sub-systems, state transition method as well as Monte Carlo method were applied successfully. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to identify key components and to investigate the effect of variation of the failure rate to the system reliability. And also, the effectiveness of redundancy, maintenance and repair to the subsystem or component was investigated in detail. The results obtained here will be applicable for the decision making in design for the improvement of system reliability. (auth.)

  2. Culture Representation in Human Reliability Analysis

    David Gertman; Julie Marble; Steven Novack

    2006-12-01

    Understanding human-system response is critical to being able to plan and predict mission success in the modern battlespace. Commonly, human reliability analysis has been used to predict failures of human performance in complex, critical systems. However, most human reliability methods fail to take culture into account. This paper takes an easily understood state of the art human reliability analysis method and extends that method to account for the influence of culture, including acceptance of new technology, upon performance. The cultural parameters used to modify the human reliability analysis were determined from two standard industry approaches to cultural assessment: Hofstede’s (1991) cultural factors and Davis’ (1989) technology acceptance model (TAM). The result is called the Culture Adjustment Method (CAM). An example is presented that (1) reviews human reliability assessment with and without cultural attributes for a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system attack, (2) demonstrates how country specific information can be used to increase the realism of HRA modeling, and (3) discusses the differences in human error probability estimates arising from cultural differences.

  3. Discrete event simulation versus conventional system reliability analysis approaches

    Kozine, Igor

    2010-01-01

    Discrete Event Simulation (DES) environments are rapidly developing and appear to be promising tools for building reliability and risk analysis models of safety-critical systems and human operators. If properly developed, they are an alternative to the conventional human reliability analysis models...... and systems analysis methods such as fault and event trees and Bayesian networks. As one part, the paper describes briefly the author’s experience in applying DES models to the analysis of safety-critical systems in different domains. The other part of the paper is devoted to comparing conventional...

  4. How useful and reliable are disaster databases in the context of climate and global change? A comparative case study analysis in Peru

    Huggel, C.; A. Raissig; M. Rohrer; Romero, G.; Diaz, A.; Salzmann, N.

    2015-01-01

    Damage caused by weather- and climate-related disasters have increased over the past decades, and growing exposure and wealth have been identified as main drivers of this increase. Disaster databases are a primary tool for the analysis of disaster characteristics and trends at global or national scales, and they support disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, the quality, consistency and completeness of different disaster databases are highly variable...

  5. How useful and reliable are disaster databases in the context of climate and global change? A comparative case study analysis in Peru

    Huggel, Christian; Raissig, Annik; Rohrer, Mario; Romero, Gilberto; Diaz, Alfonso; Salzmann, Nadine

    2014-01-01

    Loss and damage caused by weather and climate related disasters have increased over the past decades, and growing exposure and wealth have been identified as main drivers of this increase. Disaster databases are a primary tool for the analysis of disaster characteristics and trends at global or national scales, and support disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, the quality, consistency and completeness of different disaster databases are highly variable. Even though s...

  6. How useful and reliable are disaster databases in the context of climate and global change? A comparative case study analysis in Peru

    Huggel, Christian; Raissig, Annik; Rohrer, Mario; Romero, Gilberto; Diaz, A; Salzmann, Nadine

    2015-01-01

    Damage caused by weather- and climate-related disasters have increased over the past decades, and growing exposure and wealth have been identified as main drivers of this increase. Disaster databases are a primary tool for the analysis of disaster characteristics and trends at global or national scales, and they support disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, the quality, consistency and completeness of different disaster databases are highly variable. Even though such...

  7. Event/Time/Availability/Reliability-Analysis Program

    Viterna, L. A.; Hoffman, D. J.; Carr, Thomas

    1994-01-01

    ETARA is interactive, menu-driven program that performs simulations for analysis of reliability, availability, and maintainability. Written to evaluate performance of electrical power system of Space Station Freedom, but methodology and software applied to any system represented by block diagram. Program written in IBM APL.

  8. Representative Sampling for reliable data analysis

    Petersen, Lars; Esbensen, Kim Harry

    2005-01-01

    regime in order to secure the necessary reliability of: samples (which must be representative, from the primary sampling onwards), analysis (which will not mean anything outside the miniscule analytical volume without representativity ruling all mass reductions involved, also in the laboratory) and data...

  9. Reliability Analysis of High Temperature Reactor Fuels

    This paper presents the results of reliability analysis of the TRISO -coated fuel particles for the High Temperature Test Reactor (HTTR), Japan. The reliability of fuel particle was evaluated based on the failure probability of each coating layer, and only the failure due to internal gas pressure and shrinkage of pyrolytic carbon (PyC) layer was considered The analysis results show that, no significant failure occurs up to about 45 MWd/kgU for the first core fuel particle and up to about 75 MWd/kgU for the reload core fuel particle. The fuel particle is predicted to fail completely at about 50 MWd/kgU for the first core fuel particle and at about 85 MWd/kgU for the reload core fuel particle. This results show that the TRISO -coated fuel particle for the HTTR to have high reliability. No failure occurs up to the maximum burnup design level, i.e. 33 MWd/kgU for the first core fuel particle and 60 MWd/kgU for the reload core fuel particle. The analysis results show also that the fuel particle reliability (coating layers) depends on the irradiation temperature. The failure occurs at lower burnup if the irradiation temperature increases. (author)

  10. Multiphase reliability analysis of complex systems

    Azam, Mohammad S.; Tu, Fang; Pattipati, Krishna R.

    2003-08-01

    Modern industrial systems assume different configurations to accomplish multiple objectives during different phases of operation, and the component parameters may also vary from one phase to the next. Consequently, reliability evaluation of complex multi-phased systems is a vital and challenging issue. Maximization of mission reliability of a multi-phase system via optimal asset selection is another key demand; incorporation of optimization issues adds to the complexities of reliability evaluation processes. Introduction of components having self-diagnostics and self-recovery capabilities, along with increased complexity and phase-dependent configuration variations in network architectures, requires new approaches for reliability evaluation. This paper considers the problem of evaluating the reliability of a complex multi-phased system with self-recovery/fault-protection options. The reliability analysis is based on a colored digraph (i.e., multi-functional) model that subsumes fault trees and digraphs as special cases. These models enable system designers to decide on system architecture modifications and to determine the optimum levels of redundancy. A sum of disjoint products (SDP) approach is employed to compute system reliability. We also formulated the problem of optimal asset selection in a multi-phase system as one of maximizing the probability of mission success under random load profiles on components. Different methods (e.g., ordinal optimization, robust design, and nonparametric statistical testing) are explored to solve the problem. The resulting analytical expressions and the software tool are demonstrated on a generic programmable software-controlled switchgear, a data bus controller system and a multi-phase mission involving helicopters.

  11. Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

    This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

  12. Human reliability analysis of control room operators

    Santos, Isaac J.A.L.; Carvalho, Paulo Victor R.; Grecco, Claudio H.S. [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2005-07-01

    Human reliability is the probability that a person correctly performs some system required action in a required time period and performs no extraneous action that can degrade the system Human reliability analysis (HRA) is the analysis, prediction and evaluation of work-oriented human performance using some indices as human error likelihood and probability of task accomplishment. Significant progress has been made in the HRA field during the last years, mainly in nuclear area. Some first-generation HRA methods were developed, as THERP (Technique for human error rate prediction). Now, an array of called second-generation methods are emerging as alternatives, for instance ATHEANA (A Technique for human event analysis). The ergonomics approach has as tool the ergonomic work analysis. It focus on the study of operator's activities in physical and mental form, considering at the same time the observed characteristics of operator and the elements of the work environment as they are presented to and perceived by the operators. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology to analyze the human reliability of the operators of industrial plant control room, using a framework that includes the approach used by ATHEANA, THERP and the work ergonomics analysis. (author)

  13. Comparative reliability of cheiloscopy and palatoscopy in human identification

    Sharma Preeti

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Establishing a person′s identity in postmortem scenarios can be a very difficult process. Dental records, fingerprint and DNA comparisons are probably the most common techniques used in this context, allowing fast and reliable identification processes. However, under certain circumstances they cannot always be used; sometimes it is necessary to apply different and less known techniques. In forensic identification, lip prints and palatal rugae patterns can lead us to important information and help in a person′s identification. This study aims to ascertain the use of lip prints and palatal rugae pattern in identification and sex differentiation. Materials and Methods: A total of 100 subjects, 50 males and 50 females were selected from among the students of Subharti Dental College, Meerut. The materials used to record lip prints were lipstick, bond paper, cellophane tape, a brush for applying the lipstick, and a magnifying lens. To study palatal rugae, alginate impressions were taken and the dental casts analyzed for their various patterns. Results: Statistical analysis (applying Z-test for proportion showed significant difference for type I, I′, IV and V lip patterns (P < 0.05 in males and females, while no significant difference was observed for the same in the palatal rugae patterns (P > 0.05. Conclusion: This study not only showed that palatal rugae and lip prints are unique to an individual, but also that lip prints is more reliable for recognition of the sex of an individual.

  14. Advances in human reliability analysis in Mexico

    Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a very important part of Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA), and constant work is dedicated to improving methods, guidance and data in order to approach realism in the results as well as looking for ways to use these to reduce accident frequency at plants. Further, in order to advance in these areas, several HRA studies are being performed globally. Mexico has participated in the International HRA Empirical study with the objective of -benchmarking- HRA methods by comparing HRA predictions to actual crew performance in a simulator, as well as in the empirical study on a US nuclear power plant currently in progress. The focus of the first study was the development of an understanding of how methods are applied by various analysts, and characterize the methods for their capability to guide the analysts to identify potential human failures, and associated causes and performance shaping factors. The HRA benchmarking study has been performed by using the Halden simulator, 14 European crews, and 15 HRA equipment s (NRC, EPRI, and foreign HRA equipment s using different HRA methods). This effort in Mexico is reflected through the work being performed on updating the Laguna Verde PRA to comply with the ASME PRA standard. In order to be considered an HRA with technical adequacy, that is, be considered as a capability category II, for risk-informed applications, the methodology used for the HRA in the original PRA is not considered sufficiently detailed, and the methodology had to upgraded. The HCR/CBDT/THERP method was chosen, since this is used in many nuclear plants with similar design. The HRA update includes identification and evaluation of human errors that can occur during testing and maintenance, as well as human errors that can occur during an accident using the Emergency Operating Procedures. The review of procedures for maintenance, surveillance and operation is a necessary step in HRA and provides insight into the possible

  15. A comparative evaluation of five human reliability assessment techniques

    A field experiment was undertaken to evaluate the accuracy, usefulness, and resources requirements of five human reliability quantification techniques (Techniques for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP); Paired Comparisons, Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART), Success Liklihood Index Method (SLIM)-Multi Attribute Utility Decomposition (MAUD), and Absolute Probability Judgement). This was achieved by assessing technique predictions against a set of known human error probabilities, and by comparing their predictions on a set of five realistic Probabilisitc Risk Assessment (PRA) human error. On a combined measure of accuracy THERP and Absolute Probability Judgement performed best, whilst HEART showed indications of accuracy and was lower in resources usage than other techniques. HEART and THERP both appear to benefit from using trained assessors in order to obtain the best results. SLIM and Paired Comparisons require further research on achieving a robust calibration relationship between their scale values and absolute probabilities. (author)

  16. Sensitivity analysis in a structural reliability context

    This thesis' subject is sensitivity analysis in a structural reliability context. The general framework is the study of a deterministic numerical model that allows to reproduce a complex physical phenomenon. The aim of a reliability study is to estimate the failure probability of the system from the numerical model and the uncertainties of the inputs. In this context, the quantification of the impact of the uncertainty of each input parameter on the output might be of interest. This step is called sensitivity analysis. Many scientific works deal with this topic but not in the reliability scope. This thesis' aim is to test existing sensitivity analysis methods, and to propose more efficient original methods. A bibliographical step on sensitivity analysis on one hand and on the estimation of small failure probabilities on the other hand is first proposed. This step raises the need to develop appropriate techniques. Two variables ranking methods are then explored. The first one proposes to make use of binary classifiers (random forests). The second one measures the departure, at each step of a subset method, between each input original density and the density given the subset reached. A more general and original methodology reflecting the impact of the input density modification on the failure probability is then explored. The proposed methods are then applied on the CWNR case, which motivates this thesis. (author)

  17. Importance and difficulties of comparing reliability criteria and the assessment of reliability

    Heylen, Evelyn; Van Hertem, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    Due to the importance of reliable electricity supply and the evolutions in the electrical grid, it can be expected that the way in which we assess reliability need to be adapted. At this moment, reliability is commonly assessed deterministically based on an N-1 criterion, while risk-based reliability assessment is widely available in academic works and is used in other industries. However, because of the years of successful use as well as the straightforward and transparent character of the c...

  18. Reliability Analysis of Concurrent Systems using LTSA

    G.N. Rodrigues; Rosenblum, D S; Wolf, J

    2007-01-01

    The analysis for software dependability is considered an important task within the software engineering life cycle. However, it is often impossible to carry out this task due to the complexity of available tools, lack of expert personnel and time-to-market pressures. As a result, released software versions may present unverified dependability properties subjecting customers to blind software reliability assessment. In particular, concurrent systems present certain behaviour that require a mor...

  19. Small nuclear power reactor emergency electric power supply system reliability comparative analysis; Analise da confiabilidade do sistema de suprimento de energia eletrica de emergencia de um reator nuclear de pequeno porte

    Bonfietti, Gerson

    2003-07-01

    This work presents an analysis of the reliability of the emergency power supply system, of a small size nuclear power reactor. Three different configurations are investigated and their reliability analyzed. The fault tree method is used as the main tool of analysis. The work includes a bibliographic review of emergency diesel generator reliability and a discussion of the design requirements applicable to emergency electrical systems. The influence of common cause failure influences is considered using the beta factor model. The operator action is considered using human failure probabilities. A parametric analysis shows the strong dependence between the reactor safety and the loss of offsite electric power supply. It is also shown that common cause failures can be a major contributor to the system reliability. (author)

  20. Sensitivity analysis in optimization and reliability problems

    The paper starts giving the main results that allow a sensitivity analysis to be performed in a general optimization problem, including sensitivities of the objective function, the primal and the dual variables with respect to data. In particular, general results are given for non-linear programming, and closed formulas for linear programming problems are supplied. Next, the methods are applied to a collection of civil engineering reliability problems, which includes a bridge crane, a retaining wall and a composite breakwater. Finally, the sensitivity analysis formulas are extended to calculus of variations problems and a slope stability problem is used to illustrate the methods

  1. The quantitative failure of human reliability analysis

    Bennett, C.T.

    1995-07-01

    This philosophical treatise argues the merits of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) in the context of the nuclear power industry. Actually, the author attacks historic and current HRA as having failed in informing policy makers who make decisions based on risk that humans contribute to systems performance. He argues for an HRA based on Bayesian (fact-based) inferential statistics, which advocates a systems analysis process that employs cogent heuristics when using opinion, and tempers itself with a rational debate over the weight given subjective and empirical probabilities.

  2. System reliability analysis with natural language and expert's subjectivity

    This paper introduces natural language expressions and expert's subjectivity to system reliability analysis. To this end, this paper defines a subjective measure of reliability and presents the method of the system reliability analysis using the measure. The subjective measure of reliability corresponds to natural language expressions of reliability estimation, which is represented by a fuzzy set defined on [0,1]. The presented method deals with the dependence among subsystems and employs parametrized operations of subjective measures of reliability which can reflect expert 's subjectivity towards the analyzed system. The analysis results are also expressed by linguistic terms. Finally this paper gives an example of the system reliability analysis by the presented method

  3. Reliability testing and reliability analysis of the over-load protective relay

    ZHAO Jing-ying; CHEN Hong-jian; LIU Guo-jin; ZHANG Yong; WU Pin-hua

    2007-01-01

    The over-load protective relay is widely used for motor protection. The reliability of the over-load protective relay directly affects the safe running of a motor. The reliability testing and reliability analysis of the over-load protective relay is an important way to improve the reliability of products. In this paper, the reliability test method of the over-load protective relay is studied, and the reliability tests of the typical products are carried out on a reliability tester developed by authors. In terms of the testing results, the reliability analysis is finished. The failure reasons are found and the measures are put forward to improve the reliability of the products.

  4. Reliability analysis of containment isolation systems

    This report summarizes the results of the Reliability Analysis of Containment Isolation System Project. Work was performed in five basic areas: design review, operating experience review, related research review, generic analysis and plant specific analysis. Licensee Event Reports (LERs) and Integrated Leak Rate Test (ILRT) reports provided the major sources of containment performance information used in this study. Data extracted from LERs were assembled into a computer data base. Qualitative and quantitative information developed for containment performance under normal operating conditions and design basis accidents indicate that there is room for improvement. A rough estimate of overall containment unavailability for relatively small leaks which violate plant technical specifications is 0.3. An estimate of containment unavailability due to large leakage events is in the range of 0.001 to 0.01. These estimates are dependent on several assumptions (particularly on event duration times) which are documented in the report

  5. Bayesian networks with applications in reliability analysis

    Langseth, Helge

    2002-01-01

    A common goal of the papers in this thesis is to propose, formalize and exemplify the use of Bayesian networks as a modelling tool in reliability analysis. The papers span work in which Bayesian networks are merely used as a modelling tool (Paper I), work where models are specially designed to utilize the inference algorithms of Bayesian networks (Paper II and Paper III), and work where the focus has been on extending the applicability of Bayesian networks to very large domains (Paper IV and ...

  6. Human reliability analysis under fire condition

    It is identified in the fire probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants that human action has important effect on the risk of plant under fire condition. So it's necessary to assess human error probability under fire condition by the systemic methodology. The HCR/ORE and CBDTM models and specific considerations under fire condition were described in this paper. The combination of HCR/ORE, CBDTM and THERP was applied to human reliability analysis (HRA) under fire condition with an example given for demonstration. The basement of setting up the more practical fire PSA models for engineering is established. (authors)

  7. Reliability of the Emergency Severity Index: Meta-analysis

    Amir Mirhaghi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Although triage systems based on the Emergency Severity Index (ESI have many advantages in terms of simplicity and clarity, previous research has questioned their reliability in practice. Therefore, the aim of this meta-analysis was to determine the reliability of ESI triage scales. Methods: This metaanalysis was performed in March 2014. Electronic research databases were searched and articles conforming to the Guidelines for Reporting Reliability and Agreement Studies were selected. Two researchers independently examined selected abstracts. Data were extracted in the following categories: version of scale (latest/older, participants (adult/paediatric, raters (nurse, physician or expert, method of reliability (intra/inter-rater, reliability statistics (weighted/unweighted kappa and the origin and publication year of the study. The effect size was obtained by the Z-transformation of reliability coefficients. Data were pooled with random-effects models and a meta-regression was performed based on the method of moments estimator. Results: A total of 19 studies from six countries were included in the analysis. The pooled coefficient for the ESI triage scales was substantial at 0.791 (95% confidence interval: 0.787‒0.795. Agreement was higher with the latest and adult versions of the scale and among expert raters, compared to agreement with older and paediatric versions of the scales and with other groups of raters, respectively. Conclusion: ESI triage scales showed an acceptable level of overall reliability. However, ESI scales require more development in order to see full agreement from all rater groups. Further studies concentrating on other aspects of reliability assessment are needed.

  8. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

  9. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    Russell, K D; McKay, M K; Sattison, M.B. Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S T [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rasmuson, D M [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance.

  10. Estimating Reliability of Power Factor Correction Circuits: A Comparative Study

    P.Srinivas

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Reliability plays an important role in power supplies, as every power supply is the very heart of every electronics equipment. For other electronic equipment, a certain failure mode, at least for a part of the total system, can often be tolerated without serious (critical after effects. However, for the power supply no such condition can be accepted, since very high demands on the reliability must be achieved. At higher power levels, the CCM boost converter is preferred topology for implementation a front end with PFC. As a result significant efforts have been made to improve the performance of high boost converter. This paper is one the effort for improving the performance of the converter from the reliability point of view. In this paper a boost power factor correction converter is simulated with single switch and interleaving technique in CCM, DCM and CRM modes under different output power ratings and the reliability. Results of the converter are explored from reliability point of view.

  11. Reliability Analysis Techniques for Communication Networks in Nuclear Power Plant

    The objectives of this project is to investigate and study existing reliability analysis techniques for communication networks in order to develop reliability analysis models for nuclear power plant's safety-critical networks. It is necessary to make a comprehensive survey of current methodologies for communication network reliability. Major outputs of this study are design characteristics of safety-critical communication networks, efficient algorithms for quantifying reliability of communication networks, and preliminary models for assessing reliability of safety-critical communication networks

  12. Structural reliability analysis based on the cokriging technique

    Approximation methods are widely used in structural reliability analysis because they are simple to create and provide explicit functional relationships between the responses and variables in stead of the implicit limit state function. Recently, the kriging method which is a semi-parameter interpolation technique that can be used for deterministic optimization and structural reliability has gained popularity. However, to fully exploit the kriging method, especially in high-dimensional problems, a large number of sample points should be generated to fill the design space and this can be very expensive and even impractical in practical engineering analysis. Therefore, in this paper, a new method-the cokriging method, which is an extension of kriging, is proposed to calculate the structural reliability. cokriging approximation incorporates secondary information such as the values of the gradients of the function being approximated. This paper explores the use of the cokriging method for structural reliability problems by comparing it with the Kriging method based on some numerical examples. The results indicate that the cokriging procedure described in this work can generate approximation models to improve on the accuracy and efficiency for structural reliability problems and is a viable alternative to the kriging.

  13. Reliability Analysis of a Green Roof Under Different Storm Scenarios

    William, R. K.; Stillwell, A. S.

    2015-12-01

    Urban environments continue to face the challenges of localized flooding and decreased water quality brought on by the increasing amount of impervious area in the built environment. Green infrastructure provides an alternative to conventional storm sewer design by using natural processes to filter and store stormwater at its source. However, there are currently few consistent standards available in North America to ensure that installed green infrastructure is performing as expected. This analysis offers a method for characterizing green roof failure using a visual aid commonly used in earthquake engineering: fragility curves. We adapted the concept of the fragility curve based on the efficiency in runoff reduction provided by a green roof compared to a conventional roof under different storm scenarios. We then used the 2D distributed surface water-groundwater coupled model MIKE SHE to model the impact that a real green roof might have on runoff in different storm events. We then employed a multiple regression analysis to generate an algebraic demand model that was input into the Matlab-based reliability analysis model FERUM, which was then used to calculate the probability of failure. The use of reliability analysis as a part of green infrastructure design code can provide insights into green roof weaknesses and areas for improvement. It also supports the design of code that is more resilient than current standards and is easily testable for failure. Finally, the understanding of reliability of a single green roof module under different scenarios can support holistic testing of system reliability.

  14. Improved reliability analysis method based on the failure assessment diagram

    Zhou, Yu; Zhang, Zheng; Zhong, Qunpeng

    2012-07-01

    With the uncertainties related to operating conditions, in-service non-destructive testing (NDT) measurements and material properties considered in the structural integrity assessment, probabilistic analysis based on the failure assessment diagram (FAD) approach has recently become an important concern. However, the point density revealing the probabilistic distribution characteristics of the assessment points is usually ignored. To obtain more detailed and direct knowledge from the reliability analysis, an improved probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) assessment method is proposed. By integrating 2D kernel density estimation (KDE) technology into the traditional probabilistic assessment, the probabilistic density of the randomly distributed assessment points is visualized in the assessment diagram. Moreover, a modified interval sensitivity analysis is implemented and compared with probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The improved reliability analysis method is applied to the assessment of a high pressure pipe containing an axial internal semi-elliptical surface crack. The results indicate that these two methods can give consistent sensitivities of input parameters, but the interval sensitivity analysis is computationally more efficient. Meanwhile, the point density distribution and its contour are plotted in the FAD, thereby better revealing the characteristics of PFM assessment. This study provides a powerful tool for the reliability analysis of critical structures.

  15. HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS FOR COMPUTERIZED PROCEDURES

    Ronald L. Boring; David I. Gertman; Katya Le Blanc

    2011-09-01

    This paper provides a characterization of human reliability analysis (HRA) issues for computerized procedures in nuclear power plant control rooms. It is beyond the scope of this paper to propose a new HRA approach or to recommend specific methods or refinements to those methods. Rather, this paper provides a review of HRA as applied to traditional paper-based procedures, followed by a discussion of what specific factors should additionally be considered in HRAs for computerized procedures. Performance shaping factors and failure modes unique to computerized procedures are highlighted. Since there is no definitive guide to HRA for paper-based procedures, this paper also serves to clarify the existing guidance on paper-based procedures before delving into the unique aspects of computerized procedures.

  16. Human Reliability Analysis for Small Modular Reactors

    Ronald L. Boring; David I. Gertman

    2012-06-01

    Because no human reliability analysis (HRA) method was specifically developed for small modular reactors (SMRs), the application of any current HRA method to SMRs represents tradeoffs. A first- generation HRA method like THERP provides clearly defined activity types, but these activity types do not map to the human-system interface or concept of operations confronting SMR operators. A second- generation HRA method like ATHEANA is flexible enough to be used for SMR applications, but there is currently insufficient guidance for the analyst, requiring considerably more first-of-a-kind analyses and extensive SMR expertise in order to complete a quality HRA. Although no current HRA method is optimized to SMRs, it is possible to use existing HRA methods to identify errors, incorporate them as human failure events in the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), and quantify them. In this paper, we provided preliminary guidance to assist the human reliability analyst and reviewer in understanding how to apply current HRA methods to the domain of SMRs. While it is possible to perform a satisfactory HRA using existing HRA methods, ultimately it is desirable to formally incorporate SMR considerations into the methods. This may require the development of new HRA methods. More practicably, existing methods need to be adapted to incorporate SMRs. Such adaptations may take the form of guidance on the complex mapping between conventional light water reactors and small modular reactors. While many behaviors and activities are shared between current plants and SMRs, the methods must adapt if they are to perform a valid and accurate analysis of plant personnel performance in SMRs.

  17. Reliability of Bolton analysis evaluation in tridimensional virtual models

    Marianna Mendonca Brandão; Marcio Costal Sobral; Carlos Jorge Vogel

    2015-01-01

    Objective: The present study aimed at evaluating the reliability of Bolton analysis in tridimensional virtual models, comparing it with the manual method carried out with dental casts. Methods: The present investigation was performed using 56 pairs of dental casts produced from the dental arches of patients in perfect conditions and randomly selected from Universidade Federal da Bahia, School of Dentistry, Orthodontics Postgraduate Program. Manual measurements were obtained with the aid of a ...

  18. Methods for Comprehensive Analysis of Heat Supply Reliability

    V. A. Stennikov; I. V. Postnikov

    2013-01-01

    The paper deals with the problem of comprehensive analysis of heat supply reliability for consumers. It implies a quantitative assessment of the impact of all stages of heat energy production and distribution on heat supply reliability for each consumer of the heat supply system. A short review of existing methods for the analysis of fuel and heat supply reliability is presented that substantiates the key approaches to solving the problem of comprehensive analysis of heat supply reliability. ...

  19. Task Decomposition in Human Reliability Analysis

    Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Laboratory; Joe, Jeffrey Clark [Idaho National Laboratory

    2014-06-01

    In the probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) used in the nuclear industry, human failure events (HFEs) are determined as a subset of hardware failures, namely those hardware failures that could be triggered by human action or inaction. This approach is top-down, starting with hardware faults and deducing human contributions to those faults. Elsewhere, more traditionally human factors driven approaches would tend to look at opportunities for human errors first in a task analysis and then identify which of those errors is risk significant. The intersection of top-down and bottom-up approaches to defining HFEs has not been carefully studied. Ideally, both approaches should arrive at the same set of HFEs. This question remains central as human reliability analysis (HRA) methods are generalized to new domains like oil and gas. The HFEs used in nuclear PSAs tend to be top-down— defined as a subset of the PSA—whereas the HFEs used in petroleum quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) are more likely to be bottom-up—derived from a task analysis conducted by human factors experts. The marriage of these approaches is necessary in order to ensure that HRA methods developed for top-down HFEs are also sufficient for bottom-up applications.

  20. Comparative reliability of cheiloscopy and palatoscopy in human identification

    Sharma Preeti; Saxena Susmita; Rathod Vanita

    2009-01-01

    Background: Establishing a person′s identity in postmortem scenarios can be a very difficult process. Dental records, fingerprint and DNA comparisons are probably the most common techniques used in this context, allowing fast and reliable identification processes. However, under certain circumstances they cannot always be used; sometimes it is necessary to apply different and less known techniques. In forensic identification, lip prints and palatal rugae patterns can lead us to import...

  1. Reliability analysis of digital reactor protection system

    The reliability analysis of the digital reactor protection system (RPS) is an essential part in the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of the advanced boiling water reactor (ABWR). In this study, the reliability model and methodology were modified to evaluate the reliability of the digital RPS installed in the Japanese ABWR plant. The hardware failure rates in the foreign data source of digital components were applied, based on the similarity of the function of the digital components. The hardware failure rates of the digital components were estimated to range from 10-5 (/hr) to 10-7 (/hr), according to the types of the components. The software error events and their recovery factors in the design and fabrication stages were evaluated, considering the verification and validation process provided by the Japanese industry guideline. Then, the software failure probability of the programmable digital component was evaluated, utilizing the probability of software error events and their recovery factors. This probability was estimated to be 3.3 10-7 (/demand), which was about one order higher than that of our previous estimation. These models and results were applied to evaluate the reactor trip system (RTS) and the engineered safety feature (ESF) actuation system of the ABWR plant, both of which are the subsystems of the RPS. The unavailability of the digital RTS was estimated to be the mean value of 7.2 10-6 (/demand). If an alternate rod insertion (ARI) and a manual scram were considered, the unavailability was estimated to decrease to 1.6 10-9. The ECCS unavailability was estimated to be also nearly equal to the same values as the previous estimation, because the system unavailability was dominated by the unavailability of the mechanical components, such as pumps, valves, etc. The sensitivity analyses were conducted systematically, in order to evaluate the effect of the modeling uncertainty on the RTS unavailability. The results indicated that the unavailability

  2. Modeling human reliability analysis using MIDAS

    Boring, R. L. [Human Factors, Instrumentation and Control Systems Dept., Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID 83415 (United States)

    2006-07-01

    This paper documents current efforts to infuse human reliability analysis (HRA) into human performance simulation. The Idaho National Laboratory is teamed with NASA Ames Research Center to bridge the SPAR-H HRA method with NASA's Man-machine Integration Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) for use in simulating and modeling the human contribution to risk in nuclear power plant control room operations. It is anticipated that the union of MIDAS and SPAR-H will pave the path for cost-effective, timely, and valid simulated control room operators for studying current and next generation control room configurations. This paper highlights considerations for creating the dynamic HRA framework necessary for simulation, including event dependency and granularity. This paper also highlights how the SPAR-H performance shaping factors can be modeled in MIDAS across static, dynamic, and initiator conditions common to control room scenarios. This paper concludes with a discussion of the relationship of the workload factors currently in MIDAS and the performance shaping factors in SPAR-H. (authors)

  3. Modeling human reliability analysis using MIDAS

    This paper documents current efforts to infuse human reliability analysis (HRA) into human performance simulation. The Idaho National Laboratory is teamed with NASA Ames Research Center to bridge the SPAR-H HRA method with NASA's Man-machine Integration Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) for use in simulating and modeling the human contribution to risk in nuclear power plant control room operations. It is anticipated that the union of MIDAS and SPAR-H will pave the path for cost-effective, timely, and valid simulated control room operators for studying current and next generation control room configurations. This paper highlights considerations for creating the dynamic HRA framework necessary for simulation, including event dependency and granularity. This paper also highlights how the SPAR-H performance shaping factors can be modeled in MIDAS across static, dynamic, and initiator conditions common to control room scenarios. This paper concludes with a discussion of the relationship of the workload factors currently in MIDAS and the performance shaping factors in SPAR-H. (authors)

  4. Reliability analysis of an associated system

    陈长杰; 魏一鸣; 蔡嗣经

    2002-01-01

    Based on engineering reliability of large complex system and distinct characteristic of soft system, some new conception and theory on the medium elements and the associated system are created. At the same time, the reliability logic model of associated system is provided. In this paper, through the field investigation of the trial operation, the engineering reliability of the paste fill system in No.2 mine of Jinchuan Non-ferrous Metallic Corporation is analyzed by using the theory of associated system.

  5. Probabilistic risk assessment course documentation. Volume 3. System reliability and analysis techniques, Session A - reliability

    This course in System Reliability and Analysis Techniques focuses on the quantitative estimation of reliability at the systems level. Various methods are reviewed, but the structure provided by the fault tree method is used as the basis for system reliability estimates. The principles of fault tree analysis are briefly reviewed. Contributors to system unreliability and unavailability are reviewed, models are given for quantitative evaluation, and the requirements for both generic and plant-specific data are discussed. Also covered are issues of quantifying component faults that relate to the systems context in which the components are embedded. All reliability terms are carefully defined. 44 figs., 22 tabs

  6. Comparison of methods for dependency determination between human failure events within human reliability analysis

    The Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a highly subjective evaluation of human performance, which is an input for probabilistic safety assessment, which deals with many parameters of high uncertainty. The objective of this paper is to show that subjectivism can have a large impact on human reliability results and consequently on probabilistic safety assessment results and applications. The objective is to identify the key features, which may decrease of subjectivity of human reliability analysis. Human reliability methods are compared with focus on dependency comparison between Institute Jozef Stefan - Human Reliability Analysis (IJS-HRA) and Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H). Results show large differences in the calculated human error probabilities for the same events within the same probabilistic safety assessment, which are the consequence of subjectivity. The subjectivity can be reduced by development of more detailed guidelines for human reliability analysis with many practical examples for all steps of the process of evaluation of human performance. (author)

  7. Fatigue Reliability Analysis of Turbine Disk Alloy Using Saddlepoint Approximation

    Gan, Luping; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Zhu, Shun-Peng; Li, Yan-Feng; Yang, Yuanjian

    2013-09-01

    In this paper, a new fatigue reliability analysis method based on saddlepoint approximation (SPA) was proposed for calculating the probability of failure of turbine disk alloy in a low cycle fatigue (LCF) regime. Firstly, two LCF life prediction models based on total strain energy density and Support Vector Regression (SVR) metamodel are presented for turbine disk alloy GH4133 under different loading conditions at 250 °C. Compared with the SWT model, modified Walker model and Response Surface (RS) model, the predicted lives by the proposed models are within a factor of ±2 and a factor of ±1.1 respectively. Secondly, based on the fatigue design criteria, the probabilities of failure are calculated using SPA for the explicit and implicit performance functions using two proposed LCF models and viscosity-based model. These three models have provided the reliability design rules for GH4133. Finally, the failure probabilities curves between SPA and the designed fatigue lives are achieved. The reliability analysis results were found to be in good agreement with the calculated results of test data. These results show that SPA is very apt for the fatigue reliability analysis of turbine disk under different loading conditions using only a small number of samples without any distribution assumptions for random variables. Moreover, it can be used to estimate the system's probability of failure with a large number of random variables or high nonlinearity of performance functions. The effectiveness and accuracy of the combination of the fatigue models and SPA for fatigue reliability analysis are verified using three examples.

  8. On some comparisons of lifetimes for reliability analysis

    Ordering of non-negative random variables (lifetimes) has been intensively studied in the literature. When comparing lifetimes in different applications such as reliability and risk analysis, it is often of interest to analyze also the distances between these lifetimes. In this paper, we define and discuss the stress–strength ordering and distance on the basis of the well-known stress–strength model that describes, e.g., the probability that the strength of a structure is larger than the external stress. We also compare this probability with the distance based on the difference between the means of random variables of interest and discuss several examples. The results can be useful, e.g., for analyzing reliability and safety requirements at the design stage for various engineering objects

  9. STARS software tool for analysis of reliability and safety

    This paper reports on the STARS (Software Tool for the Analysis of Reliability and Safety) project aims at developing an integrated set of Computer Aided Reliability Analysis tools for the various tasks involved in systems safety and reliability analysis including hazard identification, qualitative analysis, logic model construction and evaluation. The expert system technology offers the most promising perspective for developing a Computer Aided Reliability Analysis tool. Combined with graphics and analysis capabilities, it can provide a natural engineering oriented environment for computer assisted reliability and safety modelling and analysis. For hazard identification and fault tree construction, a frame/rule based expert system is used, in which the deductive (goal driven) reasoning and the heuristic, applied during manual fault tree construction, is modelled. Expert system can explain their reasoning so that the analyst can become aware of the why and the how results are being obtained. Hence, the learning aspect involved in manual reliability and safety analysis can be maintained and improved

  10. Reliability test and failure analysis of high power LED packages*

    Chen Zhaohui; Zhang Qin; Wang Kai; Luo Xiaobing; Liu Sheng

    2011-01-01

    A new type application specific light emitting diode (LED) package (ASLP) with freeform polycarbonate lens for street lighting is developed, whose manufacturing processes are compatible with a typical LED packaging process. The reliability test methods and failure criterions from different vendors are reviewed and compared. It is found that test methods and failure criterions are quite different. The rapid reliability assessment standards are urgently needed for the LED industry. 85 ℃/85 RH with 700 mA is used to test our LED modules with three other vendors for 1000 h, showing no visible degradation in optical performance for our modules, with two other vendors showing significant degradation. Some failure analysis methods such as C-SAM, Nano X-ray CT and optical microscope are used for LED packages. Some failure mechanisms such as delaminations and cracks are detected in the LED packages after the accelerated reliability testing. The finite element simulation method is helpful for the failure analysis and design of the reliability of the LED packaging. One example is used to show one currently used module in industry is vulnerable and may not easily pass the harsh thermal cycle testing.

  11. Reliability test and failure analysis of high power LED packages

    Zhaohui, Chen; Qin, Zhang; Kai, Wang; Xiaobing, Luo; Sheng, Liu

    2011-01-01

    A new type application specific light emitting diode (LED) package (ASLP) with freeform polycarbonate lens for street lighting is developed, whose manufacturing processes are compatible with a typical LED packaging process. The reliability test methods and failure criterions from different vendors are reviewed and compared. It is found that test methods and failure criterions are quite different. The rapid reliability assessment standards are urgently needed for the LED industry. 85 °C/85 RH with 700 mA is used to test our LED modules with three other vendors for 1000 h, showing no visible degradation in optical performance for our modules, with two other vendors showing significant degradation. Some failure analysis methods such as C-SAM, Nano X-ray CT and optical microscope are used for LED packages. Some failure mechanisms such as delaminations and cracks are detected in the LED packages after the accelerated reliability testing. The finite element simulation method is helpful for the failure analysis and design of the reliability of the LED packaging. One example is used to show one currently used module in industry is vulnerable and may not easily pass the harsh thermal cycle testing.

  12. Reliability analysis applied to structural tests

    Diamond, P.; Payne, A. O.

    1972-01-01

    The application of reliability theory to predict, from structural fatigue test data, the risk of failure of a structure under service conditions because its load-carrying capability is progressively reduced by the extension of a fatigue crack, is considered. The procedure is applicable to both safe-life and fail-safe structures and, for a prescribed safety level, it will enable an inspection procedure to be planned or, if inspection is not feasible, it will evaluate the life to replacement. The theory has been further developed to cope with the case of structures with initial cracks, such as can occur in modern high-strength materials which are susceptible to the formation of small flaws during the production process. The method has been applied to a structure of high-strength steel and the results are compared with those obtained by the current life estimation procedures. This has shown that the conventional methods can be unconservative in certain cases, depending on the characteristics of the structure and the design operating conditions. The suitability of the probabilistic approach to the interpretation of the results from full-scale fatigue testing of aircraft structures is discussed and the assumptions involved are examined.

  13. PC-PRAISE, BWR Piping Reliability Analysis

    1 - Description of program or function: PC-PRAISE is a probabilistic fracture mechanics computer code developed for IBM or IBM compatible personal computers to estimate probabilities of leak and break in nuclear power plant cooling piping. 2 - Method of solution: PC-PRAISE considers the initiation and/or growth of crack-like defects in piping weldments. The initiation analyses are based on the results of laboratory studies and field observations in austenitic piping material operating under boiling water reactor conditions. The considerable scatter in such results is quantified and incorporated into a probabilistic model. The crack growth analysis is based on (deterministic) fracture mechanics principles, in which some of the inputs (such as initial crack size) are considered to be random variables. Monte Carlo simulation, with stratified sampling on initial crack size, is used to generate weldment reliability results. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: There is essentially no limitation with PC-PRAISE but for large number of replications used in the Monte Carlo simulation scheme, computation time may become prohibitive

  14. Individual Differences in Human Reliability Analysis

    Jeffrey C. Joe; Ronald L. Boring

    2014-06-01

    While human reliability analysis (HRA) methods include uncertainty in quantification, the nominal model of human error in HRA typically assumes that operator performance does not vary significantly when they are given the same initiating event, indicators, procedures, and training, and that any differences in operator performance are simply aleatory (i.e., random). While this assumption generally holds true when performing routine actions, variability in operator response has been observed in multiple studies, especially in complex situations that go beyond training and procedures. As such, complexity can lead to differences in operator performance (e.g., operator understanding and decision-making). Furthermore, psychological research has shown that there are a number of known antecedents (i.e., attributable causes) that consistently contribute to observable and systematically measurable (i.e., not random) differences in behavior. This paper reviews examples of individual differences taken from operational experience and the psychological literature. The impact of these differences in human behavior and their implications for HRA are then discussed. We propose that individual differences should not be treated as aleatory, but rather as epistemic. Ultimately, by understanding the sources of individual differences, it is possible to remove some epistemic uncertainty from analyses.

  15. RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF CRANE BRAKE PARAMETERS

    2002-01-01

    The high failure rate of crane brake results from improper choice of braking torque. The mathematical model of reliability for the crane brake parameters is introduced. Based on large amount of actual data the parameter reliabilities of 5~50 t general overhead travelling cranes are calculated,the probabilities that the braking torque is less than the static torque acting on the axle when the load moves down are obtained. Moreover,the ways to improve the reliability of brake parameters are discussed,the most reasonable values of braking safety coefficient are given.

  16. Reliability analysis of the combined district heating systems

    Sharapov, V. I.; Orlov, M. E.; Kunin, M. V.

    2015-12-01

    Technologies that improve the reliability and efficiency of the combined district heating systems in urban areas are considered. The calculation method of reliability of the CHP combined district heating systems is proposed. The comparative estimation of the reliability of traditional and combined district heating systems is performed.

  17. Analysis on Some of Software Reliability Models

    2001-01-01

    Software reliability & maintainability evaluation tool (SRMET 3.0) is introducted in detail in this paper,which was developed by Software Evaluation and Test Center of China Aerospace Mechanical Corporation. SRMET 3.0is supported by seven soft ware reliability models and four software maintainability models. Numerical characteristicsfor all those models are deeply studied in this paper, and corresponding numerical algorithms for each model are alsogiven in the paper.

  18. Reliability in perceptual analysis of voice quality.

    Bele, Irene Velsvik

    2005-12-01

    This study focuses on speaking voice quality in male teachers (n = 35) and male actors (n = 36), who represent untrained and trained voice users, because we wanted to investigate normal and supranormal voices. In this study, both substantial and methodologic aspects were considered. It includes a method for perceptual voice evaluation, and a basic issue was rater reliability. A listening group of 10 listeners, 7 experienced speech-language therapists, and 3 speech-language therapist students evaluated the voices by 15 vocal characteristics using VA scales. Two sets of voice signals were investigated: text reading (2 loudness levels) and sustained vowel (3 levels). The results indicated a high interrater reliability for most perceptual characteristics. Connected speech was evaluated more reliably, especially at the normal level, but both types of voice signals were evaluated reliably, although the reliability for connected speech was somewhat higher than for vowels. Experienced listeners tended to be more consistent in their ratings than did the student raters. Some vocal characteristics achieved acceptable reliability even with a smaller panel of listeners. The perceptual characteristics grouped in 4 factors reflected perceptual dimensions. PMID:16301102

  19. System reliability analysis for kinematic performance of planar mechanisms

    ZHANG YiMin; HUANG XianZhen; ZHANG XuFang; HE XiangDong; WEN BangChun

    2009-01-01

    Based on the reliability and mechanism kinematic accuracy theories, we propose a general methodology for system reliability analysis of kinematic performance of planar mechanisms. The loop closure equations are used to estimate the kinematic performance errors of planar mechanisms. Reliability and system reliability theories are introduced to develop the limit state functions (LSF) for failure of kinematic performance qualities. The statistical fourth moment method and the Edgeworth series technique are used on system reliability analysis for kinematic performance of planar mechanisms, which relax the restrictions of probability distribution of design variables. Finally, the practicality, efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method are demonstrated by numerical examples.

  20. Reliability analysis of pipe whip impacts

    A probabilistic analysis of a group distribution header (GDH) guillotine break and the damage resulting from the failed GDH impacting against a neighbouring wall was carried out for the Ignalita RBMK-1500 reactor. The NEPTUNE software system was used for the deterministic transient analysis of a GDH guillotine break. Many deterministic analyses were performed using different values of the random variables that were specified by ProFES software. All the deterministic results were transferred to the ProFES system, which then performed probabilistic analyses of piping failure and wall damage. The Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method was used to study the sensitivity of the response variables and the effect of uncertainties of material properties and geometry parameters to the probability of limit states. The First Order Reliability Method (FORM) was used to study the probability of failure of the impacted-wall and the support-wall. The Response Surface (RS/MCS) method was used in order to express failure probability as function and to investigate the dependence between impact load and failure probability. The results of the probability analyses for a whipping GDH impacting onto an adjacent wall show that: (i) there is a 0.982 probability that after a GDH guillotine break contact between GDH and wall will occur; (ii) there is a probability of 0.013 that the ultimate tensile strength of concrete at the impact location will be reached, and a through-crack may open; (iii) there is a probability of 0.0126 that the ultimate compressive strength of concrete at the GDH support location will be reached, and the concrete may fail; (iv) at the impact location in the adjacent wall, there is a probability of 0.327 that the ultimate tensile strength of the rebars in the first layer will be reached and the rebars will fail; (v) at the GDH support location, there is a probability of 0.11 that the ultimate stress of the rebars in the first layer will be reached and the rebars will fail

  1. Mechanical Properties for Reliability Analysis of Structures in Glassy Carbon

    Garion, Cédric

    2014-01-01

    Despite its good physical properties, the glassy carbon material is not widely used, especially for structural applications. Nevertheless, its transparency to particles and temperature resistance are interesting properties for the applications to vacuum chambers and components in high energy physics. For example, it has been proposed for fast shutter valve in particle accelerator [1] [2]. The mechanical properties have to be carefully determined to assess the reliability of structures in such a material. In this paper, mechanical tests have been carried out to determine the elastic parameters, the strength and toughness on commercial grades. A statistical approach, based on the Weibull’s distribution, is used to characterize the material both in tension and compression. The results are compared to the literature and the difference of properties for these two loading cases is shown. Based on a Finite Element analysis, a statistical approach is applied to define the reliability of a structural component in gl...

  2. Issues in benchmarking human reliability analysis methods : a literature review.

    Lois, Erasmia (US Nuclear Regulatory Commission); Forester, John Alan; Tran, Tuan Q. (Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID); Hendrickson, Stacey M. Langfitt; Boring, Ronald L. (Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID)

    2008-04-01

    There is a diversity of human reliability analysis (HRA) methods available for use in assessing human performance within probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Due to the significant differences in the methods, including the scope, approach, and underlying models, there is a need for an empirical comparison investigating the validity and reliability of the methods. To accomplish this empirical comparison, a benchmarking study is currently underway that compares HRA methods with each other and against operator performance in simulator studies. In order to account for as many effects as possible in the construction of this benchmarking study, a literature review was conducted, reviewing past benchmarking studies in the areas of psychology and risk assessment. A number of lessons learned through these studies are presented in order to aid in the design of future HRA benchmarking endeavors.

  3. Issues in benchmarking human reliability analysis methods: A literature review

    There is a diversity of human reliability analysis (HRA) methods available for use in assessing human performance within probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Due to the significant differences in the methods, including the scope, approach, and underlying models, there is a need for an empirical comparison investigating the validity and reliability of the methods. To accomplish this empirical comparison, a benchmarking study comparing and evaluating HRA methods in assessing operator performance in simulator experiments is currently underway. In order to account for as many effects as possible in the construction of this benchmarking study, a literature review was conducted, reviewing past benchmarking studies in the areas of psychology and risk assessment. A number of lessons learned through these studies is presented in order to aid in the design of future HRA benchmarking endeavors.

  4. Human Reliability Analysis for Design: Using Reliability Methods for Human Factors Issues

    Ronald Laurids Boring

    2010-11-01

    This paper reviews the application of human reliability analysis methods to human factors design issues. An application framework is sketched in which aspects of modeling typically found in human reliability analysis are used in a complementary fashion to the existing human factors phases of design and testing. The paper provides best achievable practices for design, testing, and modeling. Such best achievable practices may be used to evaluate and human system interface in the context of design safety certifications.

  5. Human Reliability Analysis for Design: Using Reliability Methods for Human Factors Issues

    This paper reviews the application of human reliability analysis methods to human factors design issues. An application framework is sketched in which aspects of modeling typically found in human reliability analysis are used in a complementary fashion to the existing human factors phases of design and testing. The paper provides best achievable practices for design, testing, and modeling. Such best achievable practices may be used to evaluate and human system interface in the context of design safety certifications.

  6. Reliability and availability analysis for robot subsystem in automotive assembly plant: a case study

    Fudzin, A. F.; Majid, M. A. A.

    2015-12-01

    The automotive assembly plant in a manufacturing environment consists of conveying systems and robots. Robots with high reliability will ensure no interruption during production. This study is to analyze the individual robot reliability compared to reliability of robots subsystem in series configuration. Availability was computed based on individual robots breakdown data. Failures due to robots breakdown often occurred during the operations. Actual maintenance data for a period of seven years were used for the analysis. Incorporation of failures rate and mean time between failures yield the reliability computation with the assumption of constant failure rate. Result from the analysis based on 5000 operating hours indicated reliability of series configuration of robots in a subsystem decreased to 2.8% in comparison to 38% reliability of the individual robot with the lowest reliability. The calculated lowest availability of the robots is 99.41%. The robot with the lowest reliability and availability should be considered for replacement.

  7. Probabilistic safety analysis and human reliability analysis. Proceedings. Working material

    An international meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) and Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) was jointly organized by Electricite de France - Research and Development (EDF DER) and SRI International in co-ordination with the International Atomic Energy Agency. The meeting was held in Paris 21-23 November 1994. A group of international and French specialists in PSA and HRA participated at the meeting and discussed the state of the art and current trends in the following six topics: PSA Methodology; PSA Applications; From PSA to Dependability; Incident Analysis; Safety Indicators; Human Reliability. For each topic a background paper was prepared by EDF/DER and reviewed by the international group of specialists who attended the meeting. The results of this meeting provide a comprehensive overview of the most important questions related to the readiness of PSA for specific uses and areas where further research and development is required. Refs, figs, tabs

  8. Using the Reliability Theory for Assessing the Decision Confidence Probability for Comparative Life Cycle Assessments.

    Wei, Wei; Larrey-Lassalle, Pyrène; Faure, Thierry; Dumoulin, Nicolas; Roux, Philippe; Mathias, Jean-Denis

    2016-03-01

    Comparative decision making process is widely used to identify which option (system, product, service, etc.) has smaller environmental footprints and for providing recommendations that help stakeholders take future decisions. However, the uncertainty problem complicates the comparison and the decision making. Probability-based decision support in LCA is a way to help stakeholders in their decision-making process. It calculates the decision confidence probability which expresses the probability of a option to have a smaller environmental impact than the one of another option. Here we apply the reliability theory to approximate the decision confidence probability. We compare the traditional Monte Carlo method with a reliability method called FORM method. The Monte Carlo method needs high computational time to calculate the decision confidence probability. The FORM method enables us to approximate the decision confidence probability with fewer simulations than the Monte Carlo method by approximating the response surface. Moreover, the FORM method calculates the associated importance factors that correspond to a sensitivity analysis in relation to the probability. The importance factors allow stakeholders to determine which factors influence their decision. Our results clearly show that the reliability method provides additional useful information to stakeholders as well as it reduces the computational time. PMID:26815724

  9. Fault Diagnosis and Reliability Analysis Using Fuzzy Logic Method

    Miao Zhinong; Xu Yang; Zhao Xiangyu

    2006-01-01

    A new fuzzy logic fault diagnosis method is proposed. In this method, fuzzy equations are employed to estimate the component state of a system based on the measured system performance and the relationship between component state and system performance which is called as "performance-parameter" knowledge base and constructed by expert. Compared with the traditional fault diagnosis method, this fuzzy logic method can use humans intuitive knowledge and dose not need a precise mapping between system performance and component state. Simulation proves its effectiveness in fault diagnosis. Then, the reliability analysis is performed based on the fuzzy logic method.

  10. Analysis on testing and operational reliability of software

    ZHAO Jing; LIU Hong-wei; CUI Gang; WANG Hui-qiang

    2008-01-01

    Software reliability was estimated based on NHPP software reliability growth models. Testing reliability and operational reliability may be essentially different. On the basis of analyzing similarities and differences of the testing phase and the operational phase, using the concept of operational reliability and the testing reliability, different forms of the comparison between the operational failure ratio and the predicted testing failure ratio were conducted, and the mathematical discussion and analysis were performed in detail. Finally, software optimal release was studied using software failure data. The results show that two kinds of conclusions can be derived by applying this method, one conclusion is to continue testing to meet the required reliability level of users, and the other is that testing stops when the required operational reliability is met, thus the testing cost can be reduced.

  11. Reliability Analysis of an Offshore Structure

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle; Rackwitz, R.; Bryla, P.

    A jacket type offshore structure from the North Sea is considered. The time variant reliability is estimated for failure defined as brittie fradure and crack through the tubular roerober walls. The stochastic modeiling is described. The hot spot stress speetral moments as fundion of the stochastic...

  12. A methodology to incorporate organizational factors into human reliability analysis

    A new holistic methodology for Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is proposed to model the effects of the organizational factors on the human reliability. Firstly, a conceptual framework is built, which is used to analyze the causal relationships between the organizational factors and human reliability. Then, the inference model for Human Reliability Analysis is built by combining the conceptual framework with Bayesian networks, which is used to execute the causal inference and diagnostic inference of human reliability. Finally, a case example is presented to demonstrate the specific application of the proposed methodology. The results show that the proposed methodology of combining the conceptual model with Bayesian Networks can not only easily model the causal relationship between organizational factors and human reliability, but in a given context, people can quantitatively measure the human operational reliability, and identify the most likely root causes or the prioritization of root causes caused human error. (authors)

  13. Reliability analysis of rc containment structures under combined loads

    This paper discusses a reliability analysis method and load combination design criteria for reinforced concrete containment structures under combined loads. The probability based reliability analysis method is briefly described. For load combination design criteria, derivations of the load factors for accidental pressure due to a design basis accident and safe shutdown earthquake (SSE) for three target limit state probabilities are presented

  14. Reliability Analysis of Existing Vertical Wall Breakwaters

    Burcharth, H. F.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1998-01-01

    Vertical wall breakwaters are used under quite different conditions where failure of the breakwater or a part of it will have very different consequences. Further a number of existing vertical wall breakwaters have been subjected to significant wave loads which have caused partial failures of the...... structures. The main objective of this paper is to describe how the reliability of existing breakwater structures within the expected remaining lifetime can be estimated taking into account the available information....

  15. POSSIBILITY AND EVIDENCE-BASED RELIABILITY ANALYSIS AND DESIGN OPTIMIZATION

    Hong-Zhong Huang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Engineering design under uncertainty has gained considerable attention in recent years. A great multitude of new design optimization methodologies and reliability analysis approaches are put forth with the aim of accommodating various uncertainties. Uncertainties in practical engineering applications are commonly classified into two categories, i.e., aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty. Aleatory uncertainty arises because of unpredictable variation in the performance and processes of systems, it is irreducible even adding more data or knowledge. On the other hand, epistemic uncertainty stems from lack of knowledge of the system due to limited data, measurement limitations, or simplified approximations in modeling system behavior and it can be reduced by obtaining more data or knowledge. More specifically, aleatory uncertainty is naturally represented by a statistical distribution and its associated parameters can be characterized by sufficient data. If, however, the data is limited and can be quantified in a statistical sense, epistemic uncertainty can be considered as an alternative tool in such a situation. Of the several optional treatments for epistemic uncertainty, possibility theory and evidence theory have proved to be the most computationally efficient and stable for reliability analysis and engineering design optimization. This study first attempts to provide a better understanding of uncertainty in engineering design by giving a comprehensive overview of its classifications, theories and design considerations. Then a review is conducted of general topics such as the foundations and applications of possibility theory and evidence theory. This overview includes the most recent results from theoretical research, computational developments and performance improvement of possibility theory and evidence theory with an emphasis on revealing the capability and characteristics of quantifying uncertainty from different perspectives

  16. Network reliability analysis based on percolation theory

    In this paper, we propose a new way of looking at the reliability of a network using percolation theory. In this new view, a network failure can be regarded as a percolation process and the critical threshold of percolation can be used as network failure criterion linked to the operational settings under control. To demonstrate our approach, we consider both random network models and real networks with different nodes and/or edges lifetime distributions. We study numerically and theoretically the network reliability and find that the network reliability can be solved as a voting system with threshold given by percolation theory. Then we find that the average lifetime of random network increases linearly with the average lifetime of its nodes with uniform life distributions. Furthermore, the average lifetime of the network becomes saturated when system size is increased. Finally, we demonstrate our method on the transmission network system of IEEE 14 bus. - Highlights: • Based on percolation theory, we address questions of practical interest such as “how many failed nodes/edges will break down the whole network?” • The percolation threshold naturally gives a network failure criterion. • The approach based on percolation theory is suited for calculations of large-scale networks

  17. Reliability analysis of PLC safety equipment

    FMEA analysis for Nuclear Safety Grade PLC, failure rate prediction for nuclear safety grade PLC, sensitivity analysis for components failure rate of nuclear safety grade PLC, unavailability analysis support for nuclear safety system

  18. Reliability analysis of reactor systems by applying probability method

    Probability method was chosen for analysing the reactor system reliability is considered realistic since it is based on verified experimental data. In fact this is a statistical method. The probability method developed takes into account the probability distribution of permitted levels of relevant parameters and their particular influence on the reliability of the system as a whole. The proposed method is rather general, and was used for problem of thermal safety analysis of reactor system. This analysis enables to analyze basic properties of the system under different operation conditions, expressed in form of probability they show the reliability of the system on the whole as well as reliability of each component

  19. Reliability Analysis of an Offshore Structure

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Rackwitz, R.; Thoft-Christensen, Palle; Lebas, G.

    For an offshore structure in the North Sea it is assumed that information from measurements and inspections is available. As illustrations measurements of the significant wave height and the marine growth and different inspection and repair results are considered. It is shown how the reliability...... estimates of the structure can be updated using Bayesian techniques. By minimizing the total expected costs including inspection, repair and failure costs during the lifetime an optimal inspection and repair strategy can be determined. The decision variables are the number of inspections, the time intervals...

  20. Digital Processor Module Reliability Analysis of Nuclear Power Plant

    The system used in plant, military equipment, satellite, etc. consists of many electronic parts as control module, which requires relatively high reliability than other commercial electronic products. Specially, Nuclear power plant related to the radiation safety requires high safety and reliability, so most parts apply to Military-Standard level. Reliability prediction method provides the rational basis of system designs and also provides the safety significance of system operations. Thus various reliability prediction tools have been developed in recent decades, among of them, the MI-HDBK-217 method has been widely used as a powerful tool for the prediction. In this work, It is explained that reliability analysis work for Digital Processor Module (DPM, control module of SMART) is performed by Parts Stress Method based on MIL-HDBK-217F NOTICE2. We are using the Relex 7.6 of Relex software corporation, because reliability analysis process requires enormous part libraries and data for failure rate calculation

  1. Statistical analysis on reliability and serviceability of caterpillar tractor

    WANG Jinwu; LIU Jiafu; XU Zhongxiang

    2007-01-01

    For further understanding reliability and serviceability of tractor and to furnish scientific and technical theories, based on the promotion and application of it, the following experiments and statistical analysis on reliability (reliability and MTBF) serviceability (service and MTTR) of Donfanghong-1002 and Dongfanghong-802 were conducted. The result showed that the intervals of average troubles of these two tractors were 182.62 h and 160.2 h, respectively, and the weakest assembly of them was engine part.

  2. Reliability Analysis Of Thin-Walled Cylindrical Shells

    Kala Zdeněk

    2015-01-01

    The subject of the article is the verification of the reliability of thin-walled rotationally symmetric cylindrical shells, using probabilistic approaches. Internal forces and stress of the shell are analysed assuming a membrane action. Material and geometric characteristics of the steel shell are considered as random variables. The reliability index is evaluated using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. The results of the reliability analysis are derived in a general form, so that they may ...

  3. Reliability-Analysis of Offshore Structures using Directional Loads

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Bloch, Allan; Sterndorff, M. J.

    2000-01-01

    Reliability analyses of offshore structures such as steel jacket platforms are usually performed using stochastic models for the wave loads based on the omnidirectional wave height. However, reliability analyses with respect to structural failure modes such as total collapse of a structure...... heights from the central part of the North Sea. It is described how the stochastic model for the directional wave heights can be used in a reliability analysis where total collapse of offshore steel jacket platforms is considered....

  4. Design and Analysis for Reliability of Wireless Sensor Network

    Yongxian Song

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Reliability is an important performance indicator of wireless sensor network, to some application fields, which have high demands in terms of reliability, it is particularly important to ensure reliability of network. At present, the reliability research findings of wireless sensor network are much more at home and abroad, but they mainly improve network reliability from the networks topology, reliable protocol and application layer fault correction and so on, and reliability of network is comprehensive considered from hardware and software aspects is much less. This paper adopts bionic hardware to implement bionic reconfigurable of wireless sensor network nodes, so as to the nodes have able to change their structure and behavior autonomously and dynamically, in the cases of the part hardware are failure, and the nodes can realize bionic self-healing. Secondly, Markov state diagram and probability analysis method are adopted to realize solution of functional model for reliability, establish the relationship between reliability and characteristic parameters for sink nodes, analyze sink nodes reliability model, so as to determine the reasonable parameters of the model and ensure reliability of sink nodes.

  5. ETARA - EVENT TIME AVAILABILITY, RELIABILITY ANALYSIS

    Viterna, L. A.

    1994-01-01

    The ETARA system was written to evaluate the performance of the Space Station Freedom Electrical Power System, but the methodology and software can be modified to simulate any system that can be represented by a block diagram. ETARA is an interactive, menu-driven reliability, availability, and maintainability (RAM) simulation program. Given a Reliability Block Diagram representation of a system, the program simulates the behavior of the system over a specified period of time using Monte Carlo methods to generate block failure and repair times as a function of exponential and/or Weibull distributions. ETARA can calculate availability parameters such as equivalent availability, state availability (percentage of time at a particular output state capability), continuous state duration and number of state occurrences. The program can simulate initial spares allotment and spares replenishment for a resupply cycle. The number of block failures are tabulated both individually and by block type. ETARA also records total downtime, repair time, and time waiting for spares. Maintenance man-hours per year and system reliability, with or without repair, at or above a particular output capability can also be calculated. The key to using ETARA is the development of a reliability or availability block diagram. The block diagram is a logical graphical illustration depicting the block configuration necessary for a function to be successfully accomplished. Each block can represent a component, a subsystem, or a system. The function attributed to each block is considered for modeling purposes to be either available or unavailable; there are no degraded modes of block performance. A block does not have to represent physically connected hardware in the actual system to be connected in the block diagram. The block needs only to have a role in contributing to an available system function. ETARA can model the RAM characteristics of systems represented by multilayered, nesting block diagrams

  6. Structural reliability analysis applied to pipeline risk analysis

    Gardiner, M. [GL Industrial Services, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Mendes, Renato F.; Donato, Guilherme V.P. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of pipelines requires two main components to be provided. These are models of the consequences that follow from some loss of containment incident, and models for the likelihood of such incidents occurring. This paper describes how PETROBRAS have used Structural Reliability Analysis for the second of these, to provide pipeline- and location-specific predictions of failure frequency for a number of pipeline assets. This paper presents an approach to estimating failure rates for liquid and gas pipelines, using Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to analyze the credible basic mechanisms of failure such as corrosion and mechanical damage. SRA is a probabilistic limit state method: for a given failure mechanism it quantifies the uncertainty in parameters to mathematical models of the load-resistance state of a structure and then evaluates the probability of load exceeding resistance. SRA can be used to benefit the pipeline risk management process by optimizing in-line inspection schedules, and as part of the design process for new construction in pipeline rights of way that already contain multiple lines. A case study is presented to show how the SRA approach has recently been used on PETROBRAS pipelines and the benefits obtained from it. (author)

  7. Reliability and safety analysis of redundant vehicle management computer system

    Shi Jian; Meng Yixuan; Wang Shaoping; Bian Mengmeng; Yan Dungong

    2013-01-01

    Redundant techniques are widely adopted in vehicle management computer (VMC) to ensure that VMC has high reliability and safety. At the same time, it makes VMC have special char-acteristics, e.g., failure correlation, event simultaneity, and failure self-recovery. Accordingly, the reliability and safety analysis to redundant VMC system (RVMCS) becomes more difficult. Aimed at the difficulties in RVMCS reliability modeling, this paper adopts generalized stochastic Petri nets to establish the reliability and safety models of RVMCS. Then this paper analyzes RVMCS oper-ating states and potential threats to flight control system. It is verified by simulation that the reli-ability of VMC is not the product of hardware reliability and software reliability, and the interactions between hardware and software faults can reduce the real reliability of VMC obviously. Furthermore, the failure undetected states and false alarming states inevitably exist in RVMCS due to the influences of limited fault monitoring coverage and false alarming probability of fault mon-itoring devices (FMD). RVMCS operating in some failure undetected states will produce fatal threats to the safety of flight control system. RVMCS operating in some false alarming states will reduce utility of RVMCS obviously. The results abstracted in this paper can guide reliable VMC and efficient FMD designs. The methods adopted in this paper can also be used to analyze other intelligent systems’ reliability.

  8. Mass Flow Meter Analysis for Reliable Measuring

    Kupanovac, Tihomir; Špoljarić, Željko; Valter, Zdravko

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to show how to analyze and correctly chose measuring device specially applied on mass flow meter based on Coriolis principle. In the beginning short description of Coriolis based mass flow meter is given. Furthermore, comparison analysis of two flow meters shows where are the problems of wrongly applied method in slurry fluid measurement in production of powder detergents plant. Analysis is made using RS Logix 500 program. In given diagrams which show causes of wrong ...

  9. Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis Project

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — It is proposed to develop and demonstrate an integrated total-system risk and reliability analysis approach that is based on dynamic, probabilistic simulation. This...

  10. Reliability analysis of digital I and C systems at KAERI

    This paper provides an overview of the ongoing research activities on a reliability analysis of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems of nuclear power plants (NPPs) performed by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). The research activities include the development of a new safety-critical software reliability analysis method by integrating the advantages of existing software reliability analysis methods, a fault coverage estimation method based on fault injection experiments, and a new human reliability analysis method for computer-based main control rooms (MCRs) based on human performance data from the APR-1400 full-scope simulator. The research results are expected to be used to address various issues such as the licensing issues related to digital I and C probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for advanced digital-based NPPs. (author)

  11. An intelligent method for contact fatigue reliability analysis of spur gear under EHL

    胡贇; 刘少军; 常继华; 张建阁

    2015-01-01

    To complete the contact fatigue reliability analysis of spur gear under elastohydrodynamic lubrication (EHL) efficiently and accurately, an intelligent method is proposed. Oil film pressure is approximated using quadratic polynomial with intercrossing term and then mapped into the Hertz contact zone. Considering the randomness of the EHL, material properties and fatigue strength correction factors, the probabilistic reliability analysis model is established using artificial neural network (ANN). Genetic algorithm (GA) is employed to search the minimum reliability index and the design point by introducing an adjusting factor in penalty function. Reliability sensitivity analysis is completed based on the advanced first order second moment (AFOSM). Numerical example shows that the established probabilistic reliability analysis model could correctly reflect the effect of EHL on contact fatigue of spur gear, and the proposed intelligent method has an excellent global search capability as well as a highly efficient computing performance compared with the traditional Monte Carlo method (MCM).

  12. The Reliability of Content Analysis of Computer Conference Communication

    Rattleff, Pernille

    2007-01-01

    The focus of this article is the reliability of content analysis of students' computer conference communication. Content analysis is often used when researching the relationship between learning and the use of information and communications technology in educational settings. A number of studies where content analysis is used and classification…

  13. Quantitative characterization of the reliability of simplex buses and stars to compare their benefits in fieldbuses

    Fieldbuses targeted to highly dependable distributed embedded systems are shifting from bus to star topologies. Surprisingly, despite the efforts into this direction, engineers lack of analyses that quantitatively characterize the system reliability achievable by buses and stars. Thus, to guide engineers in developing adequate bus and star fieldbuses, this work models, quantifies and compares the system reliability provided by simplex buses and stars for the case of the Controller Area Network (CAN). It clarifies how relevant dependability-related aspects affect reliability, refuting some intuitive ideas, and revealing some previously unknown bus and star benefits. - Highlights: • SANs models that quantify the reliability of simplex buses/stars in fieldbuses. • Models cover system relevant dependability-related features abstracted in the literature. • Results refute intuitive ideas about buses and stars and show some unexpected effects. • Models and results can guide the design of reliable simplex bus/stars fieldbuses

  14. Reliability analysis of nonlinear MDOF dynamic systems

    This paper presents a simplified procedure to estimate the probability of failure for nonlinear MDOF shear-type systems optimally designed due to the seismic excitation. The excitation is idealized as a nonstationary stochastic process. With the aid of the response modification factor-ductility factor relationship established by the authors for these systems, 'an equivalent linear criteria' of such systems is introduced. Then, a linear response and the equivalent criteria can be used to evaluate the limit state probability as a solution to the classical first excursion probability problem at least in approximation. An example of a three-story building is demonstrated and the results are compared by using a simulation method. (orig.)

  15. Seismic reliability analysis of urban water distribution network

    Li Jie; Wei Shulin; Liu Wei

    2006-01-01

    An approach to analyze the seismic reliability of water distribution networks by combining a hydraulic analysis with a first-order reliability method (FORM), is proposed in this paper.The hydraulic analysis method for normal conditions is modified to accommodate the special conditions necessary to perform a seismic hydraulic analysis. In order to calculate the leakage area and leaking flow of the pipelines in the hydraulic analysis method, a new leakage model established from the seismic response analysis of buried pipelines is presented. To validate the proposed approach, a network with 17 nodes and 24 pipelines is investigated in detail. The approach is also applied to an actual project consisting of 463 nodes and 767pipelines. Thee results show that the proposed approach achieves satisfactory results in analyzing the seismic reliability of large-scale water distribution networks.

  16. Framework for Evaluating and Comparing Performance of Power System Reliability Criteria

    Heylen, Evelyn; Labeeuw, Wouter; Deconinck, Geert; van Hertem, Dirk

    2016-01-01

    Evolutions in the power system challenge the manner in which power system reliability is managed. In particular, currently used reliability criteria, typically the deterministic N-1 criterion, are increasingly inadequate. Moving to an alternative approach is difficult as quantifying benefits is hard in a multifaceted environment and system operators are reluctant to move away from the easy and transparent existing criterion. This paper presents a generic framework to evaluate and compare soci...

  17. Reliability analysis of the bulk cargo loading system including dependent components

    Blokus-Roszkowska, Agnieszka

    2016-06-01

    In the paper an innovative approach to the reliability analysis of multistate series-parallel systems assuming their components' dependency is presented. The reliability function of a multistate series system with components dependent according to the local load sharing rule is determined. Linking these results for series systems with results for parallel systems with independent components, we obtain the reliability function of a multistate series-parallel system assuming dependence of components' departures from the reliability states subsets in series subsystem and assuming independence between these subsystems. As a particular case, the reliability function of a multistate series-parallel system composed of dependent components having exponential reliability functions is fixed. Theoretical results are applied practically to the reliability evaluation of a bulk cargo transportation system, which main area is to load bulk cargo on board the ships. The reliability function and other reliability characteristics of the loading system are determined in case its components have exponential reliability functions with interdependent departures rates from the subsets of their reliability states. Finally, the obtained results are compared with results for the bulk cargo transportation system composed of independent components.

  18. Reliability-based analysis of river dikes during flood waves

    Pham Quang, T.; van Gelder, P. H. A. J. M.; J. K. Vrijling; Thu, T.M.

    2012-01-01

    Reliability and risk analyses are basic approaches, nowadays, for flood risk assessments in European countries such as the Netherlands, German, United Kingdom, etc. The methods also receive a lot of interest in developing countries. By considering uncertainties for both load and strength variables, the probability of failure for each element of the flood defence system can be formulated. This paper focuses on the reliability analysis of the Red river dike during a typical flood wave of 1/500 ...

  19. Application of system reliability analysis to plant status monitoring

    This paper describes a practical software tool which utilizes system reliability analysis technique to assist nuclear power plant operators and maintenance staff in making timely decision and reducing routine work burden. Specifically, this software, plant status monitoring (PSM), determines plant and its system operability status, monitor technical specifications and action statements compliance, assess dynamic operational reliability at various power levels (plant health), and monitor and produce equipment outage tags in consultation with technical specification requirements and plant health implications

  20. Reliability and safety analysis for systems of fusion device

    Highlights: • Reliability is very important from fusion devices efficiency perspective. • Rich experience of probabilistic safety analysis exists in nuclear industry. • Reliability and safety analysis was applied for systems of fusion device. • This enables to identify and prioritize availability improvement measures. • Recommendations are based on cost effectiveness for risk decrease options. - Abstract: Fusion energy or thermonuclear power is a promising, literally endless source of energy. Development of fusion power is still under investigation and experimental phase, and a number of fusion devices are under construction in Europe. Since fusion energy is innovative and fusion devices contain unique and expensive equipment, an issue of their reliability is very important from their efficiency perspective. A Reliability, Availability, Maintainability, Inspectability (RAMI) analysis is being performed or is going to be performed in the nearest future for such fusion devices as ITER and DEMO in order to ensure reliable and efficient operation for experiments (e.g., in ITER) or for energy production purposes (e.g., in DEMO). On the other hand, rich experience of the reliability and Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) exists in nuclear industry for fission power plants and other nuclear installations. In this paper, the Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) device is mainly considered. This stellarator device is in commissioning stage in the Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, Greifswald, Germany (IPP). In the frame of cooperation between the IPP and the Lithuanian Energy Institute (LEI) under the European Fusion Development Agreement a pilot project of a reliability analysis of the W7-X systems was performed with a purpose to adopt Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) PSA experience for fusion device systems. During the project reliability and safety (risk) analysis of a Divertor Target Cooling Circuit, which is an important system for permanent and reliable operation of in

  1. Reliability and safety analysis for systems of fusion device

    Alzbutas, Robertas, E-mail: robertas.alzbutas@lei.lt; Voronov, Roman

    2015-05-15

    Highlights: • Reliability is very important from fusion devices efficiency perspective. • Rich experience of probabilistic safety analysis exists in nuclear industry. • Reliability and safety analysis was applied for systems of fusion device. • This enables to identify and prioritize availability improvement measures. • Recommendations are based on cost effectiveness for risk decrease options. - Abstract: Fusion energy or thermonuclear power is a promising, literally endless source of energy. Development of fusion power is still under investigation and experimental phase, and a number of fusion devices are under construction in Europe. Since fusion energy is innovative and fusion devices contain unique and expensive equipment, an issue of their reliability is very important from their efficiency perspective. A Reliability, Availability, Maintainability, Inspectability (RAMI) analysis is being performed or is going to be performed in the nearest future for such fusion devices as ITER and DEMO in order to ensure reliable and efficient operation for experiments (e.g., in ITER) or for energy production purposes (e.g., in DEMO). On the other hand, rich experience of the reliability and Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) exists in nuclear industry for fission power plants and other nuclear installations. In this paper, the Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) device is mainly considered. This stellarator device is in commissioning stage in the Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, Greifswald, Germany (IPP). In the frame of cooperation between the IPP and the Lithuanian Energy Institute (LEI) under the European Fusion Development Agreement a pilot project of a reliability analysis of the W7-X systems was performed with a purpose to adopt Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) PSA experience for fusion device systems. During the project reliability and safety (risk) analysis of a Divertor Target Cooling Circuit, which is an important system for permanent and reliable operation of in

  2. Reliability and vulnerability analyses of critical infrastructures: Comparing two approaches in the context of power systems

    Society depends on services provided by critical infrastructures, and hence it is important that they are reliable and robust. Two main approaches for gaining knowledge required for designing and improving critical infrastructures are reliability analysis and vulnerability analysis. The former analyses the ability of the system to perform its intended function; the latter analyses its inability to withstand strains and the effects of the consequent failures. The two approaches have similarities but also some differences with respect to what type of information they generate about the system. In this view, the main purpose of this paper is to discuss and contrast these approaches. To strengthen the discussion and exemplify its findings, a Monte Carlo-based reliability analysis and a vulnerability analysis are considered in their application to a relatively simple, but representative, system the IEEE RTS96 electric power test system. The exemplification reveals that reliability analysis provides a good picture of the system likely behaviour, but fails to capture a large portion of the high consequence scenarios, which are instead captured in the vulnerability analysis. Although these scenarios might be estimated to have small probabilities of occurrence, they should be identified, considered and treated cautiously, as probabilistic analyses should not be the only input to decision-making for the design and protection of critical infrastructures. The general conclusion that can be drawn from the findings of the example is that vulnerability analysis should be used to complement reliability studies, as well as other forms of probabilistic risk analysis. Measures should be sought for reducing both the vulnerability, i.e. improving the system ability to withstand strains and stresses, and the reliability, i.e. improving the likely behaviour

  3. Coverage Modeling and Reliability Analysis Using Multi-state Function

    2007-01-01

    Fault tree analysis is an effective method for predicting the reliability of a system. It gives a pictorial representation and logical framework for analyzing the reliability. Also, it has been used for a long time as an effective method for the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the failure modes of critical systems. In this paper, we propose a new general coverage model (GCM) based on hardware independent faults. Using this model, an effective software tool can be constructed to detect, locate and recover fault from the faulty system. This model can be applied to identify the key component that can cause the failure of the system using failure mode effect analysis (FMEA).

  4. Reliability analysis of repairable systems using system dynamics modeling and simulation

    Srinivasa Rao, M.; Naikan, V. N. A.

    2014-07-01

    Repairable standby system's study and analysis is an important topic in reliability. Analytical techniques become very complicated and unrealistic especially for modern complex systems. There have been attempts in the literature to evolve more realistic techniques using simulation approach for reliability analysis of systems. This paper proposes a hybrid approach called as Markov system dynamics (MSD) approach which combines the Markov approach with system dynamics simulation approach for reliability analysis and to study the dynamic behavior of systems. This approach will have the advantages of both Markov as well as system dynamics methodologies. The proposed framework is illustrated for a standby system with repair. The results of the simulation when compared with that obtained by traditional Markov analysis clearly validate the MSD approach as an alternative approach for reliability analysis.

  5. Reliability analysis framework for computer-assisted medical decision systems

    We present a technique that enhances computer-assisted decision (CAD) systems with the ability to assess the reliability of each individual decision they make. Reliability assessment is achieved by measuring the accuracy of a CAD system with known cases similar to the one in question. The proposed technique analyzes the feature space neighborhood of the query case to dynamically select an input-dependent set of known cases relevant to the query. This set is used to assess the local (query-specific) accuracy of the CAD system. The estimated local accuracy is utilized as a reliability measure of the CAD response to the query case. The underlying hypothesis of the study is that CAD decisions with higher reliability are more accurate. The above hypothesis was tested using a mammographic database of 1337 regions of interest (ROIs) with biopsy-proven ground truth (681 with masses, 656 with normal parenchyma). Three types of decision models, (i) a back-propagation neural network (BPNN), (ii) a generalized regression neural network (GRNN), and (iii) a support vector machine (SVM), were developed to detect masses based on eight morphological features automatically extracted from each ROI. The performance of all decision models was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The study showed that the proposed reliability measure is a strong predictor of the CAD system's case-specific accuracy. Specifically, the ROC area index for CAD predictions with high reliability was significantly better than for those with low reliability values. This result was consistent across all decision models investigated in the study. The proposed case-specific reliability analysis technique could be used to alert the CAD user when an opinion that is unlikely to be reliable is offered. The technique can be easily deployed in the clinical environment because it is applicable with a wide range of classifiers regardless of their structure and it requires neither additional

  6. Reliability of the Decay Heat Removal System of Phenix, Concepts and Qualitative Reliability Analysis

    The decay heat removal in the Phenix Reactor has been designed with high level of safety and redundancy so that it should exist at least one way of removal whatever incident would be generated. In the following paragraph, we indicate the principal criteria used in the design, the different ways of operating and the global and qualitative reliability analysis in order to show the high degree of safety

  7. Recent advances in computational structural reliability analysis methods

    Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Millwater, Harry R.; Torng, Tony Y.; Riha, David S.

    1993-01-01

    The goal of structural reliability analysis is to determine the probability that the structure will adequately perform its intended function when operating under the given environmental conditions. Thus, the notion of reliability admits the possibility of failure. Given the fact that many different modes of failure are usually possible, achievement of this goal is a formidable task, especially for large, complex structural systems. The traditional (deterministic) design methodology attempts to assure reliability by the application of safety factors and conservative assumptions. However, the safety factor approach lacks a quantitative basis in that the level of reliability is never known and usually results in overly conservative designs because of compounding conservatisms. Furthermore, problem parameters that control the reliability are not identified, nor their importance evaluated. A summary of recent advances in computational structural reliability assessment is presented. A significant level of activity in the research and development community was seen recently, much of which was directed towards the prediction of failure probabilities for single mode failures. The focus is to present some early results and demonstrations of advanced reliability methods applied to structural system problems. This includes structures that can fail as a result of multiple component failures (e.g., a redundant truss), or structural components that may fail due to multiple interacting failure modes (e.g., excessive deflection, resonate vibration, or creep rupture). From these results, some observations and recommendations are made with regard to future research needs.

  8. RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF RING, AGENT AND CLUSTER BASED DISTRIBUTED SYSTEMS

    R.SEETHALAKSHMI

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The introduction of pervasive devices and mobile devices has led to immense growth of real time distributed processing. In such context reliability of the computing environment is very important. Reliability is the probability that the devices, links, processes, programs and files work efficiently for the specified period of time and in the specified condition. Distributed systems are available as conventional ring networks, clusters and agent based systems. Reliability of such systems is focused. These networks are heterogeneous and scalable in nature. There are several factors, which are to be considered for reliability estimation. These include the application related factors like algorithms, data-set sizes, memory usage pattern, input-output, communication patterns, task granularity and load-balancing. It also includes the hardware related factors like processor architecture, memory hierarchy, input-output configuration and network. The software related factors concerning reliability are operating systems, compiler, communication protocols, libraries and preprocessor performance. In estimating the reliability of a system, the performance estimation is an important aspect. Reliability analysis is approached using probability.

  9. National Launch System comparative economic analysis

    Prince, A.

    1992-01-01

    Results are presented from an analysis of economic benefits (or losses), in the form of the life cycle cost savings, resulting from the development of the National Launch System (NLS) family of launch vehicles. The analysis was carried out by comparing various NLS-based architectures with the current Shuttle/Titan IV fleet. The basic methodology behind this NLS analysis was to develop a set of annual payload requirements for the Space Station Freedom and LEO, to design launch vehicle architectures around these requirements, and to perform life-cycle cost analyses on all of the architectures. A SEI requirement was included. Launch failure costs were estimated and combined with the relative reliability assumptions to measure the effects of losses. Based on the analysis, a Shuttle/NLS architecture evolving into a pressurized-logistics-carrier/NLS architecture appears to offer the best long-term cost benefit.

  10. Human reliability analysis methods for probabilistic safety assessment

    Human reliability analysis (HRA) of a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) includes identifying human actions from safety point of view, modelling the most important of them in PSA models, and assessing their probabilities. As manifested by many incidents and studies, human actions may have both positive and negative effect on safety and economy. Human reliability analysis is one of the areas of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) that has direct applications outside the nuclear industry. The thesis focuses upon developments in human reliability analysis methods and data. The aim is to support PSA by extending the applicability of HRA. The thesis consists of six publications and a summary. The summary includes general considerations and a discussion about human actions in the nuclear power plant (NPP) environment. A condensed discussion about the results of the attached publications is then given, including new development in methods and data. At the end of the summary part, the contribution of the publications to good practice in HRA is presented. In the publications, studies based on the collection of data on maintenance-related failures, simulator runs and expert judgement are presented in order to extend the human reliability analysis database. Furthermore, methodological frameworks are presented to perform a comprehensive HRA, including shutdown conditions, to study reliability of decision making, and to study the effects of wrong human actions. In the last publication, an interdisciplinary approach to analysing human decision making is presented. The publications also include practical applications of the presented methodological frameworks. (orig.)

  11. Reliability Analysis of Wireless Sensor Networks Using Markovian Model

    Jin Zhu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates reliability analysis of wireless sensor networks whose topology is switching among possible connections which are governed by a Markovian chain. We give the quantized relations between network topology, data acquisition rate, nodes' calculation ability, and network reliability. By applying Lyapunov method, sufficient conditions of network reliability are proposed for such topology switching networks with constant or varying data acquisition rate. With the conditions satisfied, the quantity of data transported over wireless network node will not exceed node capacity such that reliability is ensured. Our theoretical work helps to provide a deeper understanding of real-world wireless sensor networks, which may find its application in the fields of network design and topology control.

  12. Reliability analysis of reactor inspection robot(RIROB)

    This report describes the method and the result of the reliability analysis of RIROB developed in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute. There are many classic techniques and models for the reliability analysis. These techniques and models have been used widely and approved in other industries such as aviation and nuclear industry. Though these techniques and models have been approved in real fields they are still insufficient for the complicated systems such RIROB which are composed of computer, networks, electronic parts, mechanical parts, and software. Particularly the application of these analysis techniques to digital and software parts of complicated systems is immature at this time thus expert judgement plays important role in evaluating the reliability of the systems at these days. In this report we proposed a method which combines diverse evidences relevant to the reliability to evaluate the reliability of complicated systems such as RIROB. The proposed method combines diverse evidences and performs inference in formal and in quantitative way by using the benefits of Bayesian Belief Nets (BBN)

  13. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  14. The comparability and reliability of five health-state valuation methods

    Krabbe, P F; Essink-Bot, M L; Bonsel, G J

    1997-01-01

    The objective of the study was to consider five methods for valuing health states with respect to their comparability (convergent validity, value functions) and reliability. Valuation tasks were performed by 104 student volunteers using five frequently used valuation methods: standard gamble (SG), t

  15. Distribution System Reliability Analysis for Smart Grid Applications

    Aljohani, Tawfiq Masad

    Reliability of power systems is a key aspect in modern power system planning, design, and operation. The ascendance of the smart grid concept has provided high hopes of developing an intelligent network that is capable of being a self-healing grid, offering the ability to overcome the interruption problems that face the utility and cost it tens of millions in repair and loss. To address its reliability concerns, the power utilities and interested parties have spent extensive amount of time and effort to analyze and study the reliability of the generation and transmission sectors of the power grid. Only recently has attention shifted to be focused on improving the reliability of the distribution network, the connection joint between the power providers and the consumers where most of the electricity problems occur. In this work, we will examine the effect of the smart grid applications in improving the reliability of the power distribution networks. The test system used in conducting this thesis is the IEEE 34 node test feeder, released in 2003 by the Distribution System Analysis Subcommittee of the IEEE Power Engineering Society. The objective is to analyze the feeder for the optimal placement of the automatic switching devices and quantify their proper installation based on the performance of the distribution system. The measures will be the changes in the reliability system indices including SAIDI, SAIFI, and EUE. The goal is to design and simulate the effect of the installation of the Distributed Generators (DGs) on the utility's distribution system and measure the potential improvement of its reliability. The software used in this work is DISREL, which is intelligent power distribution software that is developed by General Reliability Co.

  16. Behaviour State Analysis in Rett Syndrome: Continuous Data Reliability Measurement

    Woodyatt, Gail; Marinac, Julie; Darnell, Ross; Sigafoos, Jeff; Halle, James

    2004-01-01

    Awareness of optimal behaviour states of children with profound intellectual disability has been reported in the literature as a potentially useful tool for planning intervention within this population. Some arguments have been raised, however, which question the reliability and validity of previously published work on behaviour state analysis.…

  17. Reliability-Based Robustness Analysis for a Croatian Sports Hall

    Čizmar, Dean; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard;

    2011-01-01

    complex timber structure with a large number of failure modes is modelled with only a few dominant failure modes. First, a component based robustness analysis is performed based on the reliability indices of the remaining elements after the removal of selected critical elements. The robustness is...

  18. Human reliability analysis of Lingao Nuclear Power Station

    The necessity of human reliability analysis (HRA) of Lingao Nuclear Power Station are analyzed, and the method and operation procedures of HRA is briefed. One of the human factors events (HFE) is analyzed in detail and some questions of HRA are discussed. The authors present the analytical results of 61 HFEs, and make a brief introduction of HRA contribution to Lingao Nuclear Power Station

  19. Reliability Analysis of a Mono-Tower Platform

    Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Enevoldsen, I.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard;

    In this paper a reliability analysis of a Mono-tower platform is presented. The failure modes, considered, are yelding in the tube cross-sections, and fatigue failure in the butt welds. The fatigue failure mode is investigated with a fatigue model, where the fatigue strength is expressed through SN...

  20. Reliability Analysis of a Mono-Tower Platform

    Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Enevoldsen, I.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard;

    1990-01-01

    In this paper, a reliability analysis of a Mono-tower platform is presented. Te failure modes considered are yielding in the tube cross sections and fatigue failure in the butts welds. The fatigue failrue mode is investigated with a fatigue model, where the fatigue strength is expressed through SN...

  1. Analysis on Operation Reliability of Generating Units in 2005

    Zuo Xiaowen; Chu Xue

    2007-01-01

    @@ The weighted average equivalent availability factor of thermal power units in 2005 was 92.34%, an increase of 0.64 percentage points as compared to that in 2004. The average equivalent availability factor in 2005 was 92.22%, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points as compared to that in 2004. The nationwide operation reliability of generating units in 2005 was analyzed completely in this paper.

  2. Nuclear power ecology: comparative analysis

    Ecological effects of different energy sources are compared. Main actions for further nuclear power development - safety increase and waste management, are noted. Reasons of restrained public position to nuclear power and role of social and political factors in it are analyzed. An attempt is undertaken to separate real difficulties of nuclear power from imaginary ones that appear in some mass media. International actions of environment protection are noted. Risk factors at different energy source using are compared. The results of analysis indicate that ecological influence and risk for nuclear power are of minimum

  3. Reliable analysis for pressure vessel based on ANSYS

    With the PDS of ANSYS procedure, the ramdomicity of the actually structure design parameters is simulated, by taking the wall thickness, pressure load and elastic module as input random variables. Based on the reliability analysis of the pressure vessel by Monte-Carlo procedure, the stress probability distribution of this finite element analysis model and the sensitivity of the design parameters such as the pressure load and wall thickness to the stress distribution are obtained. (authors)

  4. Classification using least squares support vector machine for reliability analysis

    Zhi-wei GUO; Guang-chen BAI

    2009-01-01

    In order to improve the efficiency of the support vector machine (SVM) for classification to deal with a large amount of samples,the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) for classification methods is introduced into the reliability analysis.To reduce the computational cost,the solution of the SVM is transformed from a quadratic programming to a group of linear equations.The numerical results indicate that the reliability method based on the LSSVM for classification has higher accuracy and requires less computational cost than the SVM method.

  5. Modelling application for cognitive reliability and error analysis method

    Fabio De Felice

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The automation of production systems has delegated to machines the execution of highly repetitive and standardized tasks. In the last decade, however, the failure of the automatic factory model has led to partially automated configurations of production systems. Therefore, in this scenario, centrality and responsibility of the role entrusted to the human operators are exalted because it requires problem solving and decision making ability. Thus, human operator is the core of a cognitive process that leads to decisions, influencing the safety of the whole system in function of their reliability. The aim of this paper is to propose a modelling application for cognitive reliability and error analysis method.

  6. Human Reliability Analysis for Digital Human-Machine Interfaces

    Ronald L. Boring

    2014-06-01

    This paper addresses the fact that existing human reliability analysis (HRA) methods do not provide guidance on digital human-machine interfaces (HMIs). Digital HMIs are becoming ubiquitous in nuclear power operations, whether through control room modernization or new-build control rooms. Legacy analog technologies like instrumentation and control (I&C) systems are costly to support, and vendors no longer develop or support analog technology, which is considered technologically obsolete. Yet, despite the inevitability of digital HMI, no current HRA method provides guidance on how to treat human reliability considerations for digital technologies.

  7. Reliability of videotaped observational gait analysis in patients with orthopedic impairments

    van Uden Caro JT

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In clinical practice, visual gait observation is often used to determine gait disorders and to evaluate treatment. Several reliability studies on observational gait analysis have been described in the literature and generally showed moderate reliability. However, patients with orthopedic disorders have received little attention. The objective of this study is to determine the reliability levels of visual observation of gait in patients with orthopedic disorders. Methods The gait of thirty patients referred to a physical therapist for gait treatment was videotaped. Ten raters, 4 experienced, 4 inexperienced and 2 experts, individually evaluated these videotaped gait patterns of the patients twice, by using a structured gait analysis form. Reliability levels were established by calculating the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC, using a two-way random design and based on absolute agreement. Results The inter-rater reliability among experienced raters (ICC = 0.42; 95%CI: 0.38–0.46 was comparable to that of the inexperienced raters (ICC = 0.40; 95%CI: 0.36–0.44. The expert raters reached a higher inter-rater reliability level (ICC = 0.54; 95%CI: 0.48–0.60. The average intra-rater reliability of the experienced raters was 0.63 (ICCs ranging from 0.57 to 0.70. The inexperienced raters reached an average intra-rater reliability of 0.57 (ICCs ranging from 0.52 to 0.62. The two expert raters attained ICC values of 0.70 and 0.74 respectively. Conclusion Structured visual gait observation by use of a gait analysis form as described in this study was found to be moderately reliable. Clinical experience appears to increase the reliability of visual gait analysis.

  8. Accident Sequence Evaluation Program: Human reliability analysis procedure

    Swain, A.D.

    1987-02-01

    This document presents a shortened version of the procedure, models, and data for human reliability analysis (HRA) which are presented in the Handbook of Human Reliability Analysis With emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications (NUREG/CR-1278, August 1983). This shortened version was prepared and tried out as part of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program (ASEP) funded by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and managed by Sandia National Laboratories. The intent of this new HRA procedure, called the ''ASEP HRA Procedure,'' is to enable systems analysts, with minimal support from experts in human reliability analysis, to make estimates of human error probabilities and other human performance characteristics which are sufficiently accurate for many probabilistic risk assessments. The ASEP HRA Procedure consists of a Pre-Accident Screening HRA, a Pre-Accident Nominal HRA, a Post-Accident Screening HRA, and a Post-Accident Nominal HRA. The procedure in this document includes changes made after tryout and evaluation of the procedure in four nuclear power plants by four different systems analysts and related personnel, including human reliability specialists. The changes consist of some additional explanatory material (including examples), and more detailed definitions of some of the terms. 42 refs.

  9. Reliability analysis for inspections of CANDU components and systems

    Condition assessment of complex systems requires more than inspection data for the individual elements of the system. At the component level, knowledge of the probability of detection (POD) and sizing accuracy for defects is needed to properly interpret results. At the system level, probabilistic and deterministic methods guide safety assessments and life management strategies. The field of reliability analysis provides a framework for quantitative application of inspection results to both levels. Quantitative knowledge of inspection reliability can reduce the requirement to use conservative values for every quantity. A sound analysis of inspection reliability can produce a more targeted inspection scope, leading to fewer but more effective inspections and, consequently, lower radiation dose. Restart cases can be based on correct detection probability distributions rather than worst-case scenarios, and inspection intervals and expected life estimates can be optimized based on measured sizing uncertainties. This paper illustrates applications of inspection reliability analysis to optimize the inspect-repair-operate cycle for major CANDU primary heat transport elements, such as steam generator tubing, feeder piping, and fuel channels. (author)

  10. Generating function approach to reliability analysis of structural systems

    2009-01-01

    The generating function approach is an important tool for performance assessment in multi-state systems. Aiming at strength reliability analysis of structural systems, generating function approach is introduced and developed. Static reliability models of statically determinate, indeterminate systems and fatigue reliability models are built by constructing special generating functions, which are used to describe probability distributions of strength (resistance), stress (load) and fatigue life, by defining composite operators of generating functions and performance structure functions thereof. When composition operators are executed, computational costs can be reduced by a big margin by means of collecting like terms. The results of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation show that the generating function approach can be widely used for probability modeling of large complex systems with hierarchical structures due to the unified form, compact expression, computer program realizability and high universality. Because the new method considers twin loads giving rise to component failure dependency, it can provide a theoretical reference and act as a powerful tool for static, dynamic reliability analysis in civil engineering structures and mechanical equipment systems with multi-mode damage coupling.

  11. Accident Sequence Evaluation Program: Human reliability analysis procedure

    This document presents a shortened version of the procedure, models, and data for human reliability analysis (HRA) which are presented in the Handbook of Human Reliability Analysis With emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications (NUREG/CR-1278, August 1983). This shortened version was prepared and tried out as part of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program (ASEP) funded by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and managed by Sandia National Laboratories. The intent of this new HRA procedure, called the ''ASEP HRA Procedure,'' is to enable systems analysts, with minimal support from experts in human reliability analysis, to make estimates of human error probabilities and other human performance characteristics which are sufficiently accurate for many probabilistic risk assessments. The ASEP HRA Procedure consists of a Pre-Accident Screening HRA, a Pre-Accident Nominal HRA, a Post-Accident Screening HRA, and a Post-Accident Nominal HRA. The procedure in this document includes changes made after tryout and evaluation of the procedure in four nuclear power plants by four different systems analysts and related personnel, including human reliability specialists. The changes consist of some additional explanatory material (including examples), and more detailed definitions of some of the terms. 42 refs

  12. Reliability analysis of rotor blades of tidal stream turbines

    Tidal stream turbines are used for converting kinetic energy of tidal currents into electricity. There are a number of uncertainties involved in the design of such devices and their components. To ensure safety of the turbines these uncertainties must be taken into account. The paper shows how this may be achieved for the design of rotor blades of horizontal-axis tidal stream turbines in the context of bending failure due to extreme loading. Initially, basic characteristics of such turbines in general and their blades in particular are briefly described. A probabilistic model of tidal current velocity fluctuations, which are the main source of load uncertainty, is then presented. This is followed by the description of reliability analysis of the blades, which takes into account uncertainties associated with tidal current speed, the blade resistance and the model used to calculate bending moments in the blades. Finally, the paper demonstrates how results of the reliability analysis can be applied to set values of the partial factors for the blade design. - Highlights: • A probabilistic model of the maximum of tidal current velocity fluctuations is proposed. • Reliability analysis of rotor blades of a tidal stream turbine is described. • Influence of pitch control system on the blade reliability is investigated. • Partial safety factors for the design of tidal turbine rotor blades are calibrated

  13. Strength Reliability Analysis of Turbine Blade Using Surrogate Models

    Wei Duan

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available There are many stochastic parameters that have an effect on the reliability of steam turbine blades performance in practical operation. In order to improve the reliability of blade design, it is necessary to take these stochastic parameters into account. In this study, a variable cross-section twisted blade is investigated and geometrical parameters, material parameters and load parameters are considered as random variables. A reliability analysis method as a combination of a Finite Element Method (FEM, a surrogate model and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS, is applied to solve the blade reliability analysis. Based on the blade finite element parametrical model and the experimental design, two kinds of surrogate models, Polynomial Response Surface (PRS and Artificial Neural Network (ANN, are applied to construct the approximation analytical expressions between the blade responses (including maximum stress and deflection and random input variables, which act as a surrogate of finite element solver to drastically reduce the number of simulations required. Then the surrogate is used for most of the samples needed in the Monte Carlo method and the statistical parameters and cumulative distribution functions of the maximum stress and deflection are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the probabilistic sensitivities analysis, which combines the magnitude of the gradient and the width of the scatter range of the random input variables, is applied to evaluate how much the maximum stress and deflection of the blade are influenced by the random nature of input parameters.

  14. Fuzzy sensitivity analysis for reliability assessment of building structures

    Kala, Zdeněk

    2016-06-01

    The mathematical concept of fuzzy sensitivity analysis, which studies the effects of the fuzziness of input fuzzy numbers on the fuzziness of the output fuzzy number, is described in the article. The output fuzzy number is evaluated using Zadeh's general extension principle. The contribution of stochastic and fuzzy uncertainty in reliability analysis tasks of building structures is discussed. The algorithm of fuzzy sensitivity analysis is an alternative to stochastic sensitivity analysis in tasks in which input and output variables are considered as fuzzy numbers.

  15. BANK RATING. A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

    Batrancea Ioan

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Banks in Romania offers its customers a wide range of products but which involves both risk taking. Therefore researchers seek to build rating models to help managers of banks to risk of non-recovery of loans and interest. In the following we highlight rating Raiffeisen Bank, BCR-ERSTE Bank and Transilvania Bank, based on the models CAAMPL and Stickney making a comparative analysis of the two rating models.

  16. Reliability Analysis of Free Jet Scour Below Dams

    Chuanqi Li

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Current formulas for calculating scour depth below of a free over fall are mostly deterministic in nature and do not adequately consider the uncertainties of various scouring parameters. A reliability-based assessment of scour, taking into account uncertainties of parameters and coefficients involved, should be performed. This paper studies the reliability of a dam foundation under the threat of scour. A model for calculating the reliability of scour and estimating the probability of failure of the dam foundation subjected to scour is presented. The Maximum Entropy Method is applied to construct the probability density function (PDF of the performance function subject to the moment constraints. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS is applied for uncertainty analysis. An example is considered, and there liability of its scour is computed, the influence of various random variables on the probability failure is analyzed.

  17. Maintenance management of railway infrastructures based on reliability analysis

    Railway infrastructure maintenance plays a crucial role for rail transport. It aims at guaranteeing safety of operations and availability of railway tracks and related equipment for traffic regulation. Moreover, it is one major cost for rail transport operations. Thus, the increased competition in traffic market is asking for maintenance improvement, aiming at the reduction of maintenance expenditures while keeping the safety of operations. This issue is addressed by the methodology presented in the paper. The first step of the methodology consists of a family-based approach for the equipment reliability analysis; its purpose is the identification of families of railway items which can be given the same reliability targets. The second step builds the reliability model of the railway system for identifying the most critical items, given a required service level for the transportation system. The two methods have been implemented and tested in practical case studies, in the context of Rete Ferroviaria Italiana, the Italian public limited company for railway transportation.

  18. A comparative analysis of reliability, maintainability and availability for two alternatives of the production submarine systems: ANM and submarine ducts versus BOP and a subsea well testing tree; Analise comparativa da confiabilidade, mantenabilidade e disponibilidade para duas alternativas de sistemas submarino de producao: ANM e dutos submarinos versus BOP e arvore submarina de teste

    Souza, Arlindo Antonio de; Polillo Filho, Adolfo; Santos, Otto Luiz Alcantara [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2004-07-01

    This technical article presents a study using the concepts of the Engineering of the Reliability and Risk Analysis with the objective of doing a comparative evaluation of the reliability of two alternative production systems for a marine well: one composed by a wet christmas tree (ANM) producing through underwater ducts (flow lines) and other, usually used in tests of long duration, using a subsea BOP and a subsea well testing tree (AST). The central point of the work was the evaluation of the probability of happening an event considered as critic, denominated 'critical flaw', during the well production life. The work uses one of the procedures and methodologies adopted in the Well Construction Engineering, GERISK, together with four computer applications for data treatment, generation of flaw distribution curves and times of repair, modelling and Monte Carlo simulations. The adopted strategy was the one of starting from the existent report, to assume an interval for the possible real value of the relevant parameters and then to establish the scenarios (more probable, optimist and pessimist). Based on those sceneries, the considered premises, the modelling and the reliabilities obtained for each one of the variables, the simulations have been made. As results, are presented the medium readiness, MTTFF (Mean Time To First Failure), the number of flaws and the expected costs. The work also displays the sensibility analysis in respect to the time of production of the well. (author)

  19. Reliability and maintainability analysis of electrical system of drum shearers

    SEYED Hadi Hoseinie; MOHAMMAD Ataei; REZA Khalokakaie; UDAY Kumar

    2011-01-01

    The reliability and maintainability of electrical system of drum shearer at Parvade.l Coal Mine in central Iran was analyzed. The maintenance and failure data were collected during 19 months of shearer operation. According to trend and serial correlation tests, the data were independent and identically distributed (iid) and therefore the statistical techniques were used for modeling. The data analysis show that the time between failures (TBF) and time to repair (TTR) data obey the lognormal and Weibull 3 parameters distribution respectively. Reliability-based preventive maintenance time intervals for electrical system of the drum shearer were calculated with regard to reliability plot. The reliability-based maintenance intervals for 90%, 80%, 70% and 50% reliability level are respectively 9.91, 17.96, 27.56 and 56.1 h. Also the calculations show that time to repair (TTR) of this system varies in range 0.17-4 h with 1.002 h as mean time to repair (MTTR). There is a 80% chance that the electrical system of shearer of Parvade.l mine repair will be accomplished within 1.45 h.

  20. A framework for intelligent reliability centered maintenance analysis

    To improve the efficiency of reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) analysis, case-based reasoning (CBR), as a kind of artificial intelligence (AI) technology, was successfully introduced into RCM analysis process, and a framework for intelligent RCM analysis (IRCMA) was studied. The idea for IRCMA is based on the fact that the historical records of RCM analysis on similar items can be referenced and used for the current RCM analysis of a new item. Because many common or similar items may exist in the analyzed equipment, the repeated tasks of RCM analysis can be considerably simplified or avoided by revising the similar cases in conducting RCM analysis. Based on the previous theory studies, an intelligent RCM analysis system (IRCMAS) prototype was developed. This research has focused on the description of the definition, basic principles as well as a framework of IRCMA, and discussion of critical techniques in the IRCMA. Finally, IRCMAS prototype is presented based on a case study

  1. Reliability analysis of service water system under earthquake

    Service water system is one of the important safety systems in nuclear power plant, whose failure probability is always gained by system reliability analysis. The probability of equipment failure under the earthquake is the function of the peak acceleration of earthquake motion, while the occurrence of earthquake is of randomicity, thus the traditional fault tree method in current probability safety assessment is not powerful enough to deal with such case of conditional probability problem. An analysis frame was put forward for system reliability evaluation in seismic condition in this paper, in which Monte Carlo simulation was used to deal with conditional probability problem. Annual failure probability of service water system was calculated, and failure probability of 1.46X10-4 per year was obtained. The analysis result is in accordance with the data which indicate equipment seismic resistance capability, and the rationality of the model is validated. (authors)

  2. Virtual stress amplitude-based low cycle fatigue reliability analysis

    A method for virtual stress amplitude-based low cycle fatigue reliability analysis is developed. Different from existent methods, probability-based modified Ramberg-Osgood stress-strain relations (P-ε-σ curves) are newly introduced to take into account the scatter of stress-strain responses, where the metallurgical quality of material is not enough good i.e. weld metal to show a same stress-strain response for different specimens under same loading level. In addition, a virtual stress amplitude-based analysis is used to be in agreement with the existent codes for nuclear components. i.e. ASME section III. The analysis is performed by a principle of the stochastic analysis system in same safety level concurrently. Combined the probability-based modified Ramberg-Osgood stress-strain relations, the probability-based Langer S-N curves (P-S-N curves) and the Neuber's local stress-strain rule, the method can be applied to predict the fatigue life at specified reliability and loading history and to estimate the reliability at specified loading history and expectation fatigue life. Applicability of the method has been indicated by a test analysis of 1Cr18Ni9ti steel-weld metal, which was used for machining the pipes of some nuclear reactors, during low cycle fatigue

  3. Asymptotic Sampling for Reliability Analysis of Adhesive Bonded Stepped Lap Composite Joints

    Kimiaeifar, Amin; Lund, Erik; Thomsen, Ole Thybo;

    2013-01-01

    is a promising and time efficient tool to calculate the probability of failure, is utilized, and a probabilistic model for the reliability analysis of adhesive bonded stepped lap composite joints, representative for the main laminate in a wind turbine blade subjected to static flapwise bending load......Reliability analysis coupled with finite element analysis (FEA) of composite structures is computationally very demanding and requires a large number of simulations to achieve an accurate prediction of the probability of failure with a small standard error. In this paper Asymptotic Sampling, which...... used to predict failure in the composite and adhesive layers, respectively, and the results are compared with the target reliability level implicitly used in the wind turbine standard IEC 61400-1. The accuracy and efficiency of Asymptotic Sampling is investigated by comparing the results with...

  4. Brazilian gas network computational model for reliability analysis

    Carvalho, Thomaz; Bilhim, Thiago; Ferreira, Gustavo P. D.; Pires, Luis F. G. [Dept. Eng. Mecanica, PUC-Rio (Brazil); Faertes, Denise; Saker, Leonardo [PETROBRAS Gas and Energia (Brazil)

    2010-07-01

    Pipeline thermo-hydraulic simulation is useful to support operation, design development and reliability analysis. PETROBRAS carried reliability programs in the last years. These studies are developed to evaluate gas chain security of supply, pointing out vulnerable points and proposing optimization measures to adopt. Previously, the Brazilian gas network could be modeled using sub-networks because of the physical separation between the Northeast and the Southeast networks, but in 2010 the new GASCAC pipeline will start up and change this. The new simulation models will have to handle this new configuration. The simulations developed by the Pontifice Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro deal with steady state and transient scenarios provided by a PETROBRAS group of experts. This paper discusses the alternatives and strategies used in the thermo-hydraulic simulation of the Brazilian gas pipeline network and analyses the advantages and disadvantages of each approach and the option used to meet the demands of the reliability analysis of the PETROBRAS gas reliability management sector.

  5. INTRODUCING NEW PARAMETERS TO COMPARE THE ACCURACY AND RELIABILITY OF MEAN-SHIFT BASED TRACKING ALGORITHMS

    S.A. Mohammadi

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Mean shift algorithms are among the most functional tracking methods which are accurate and havealmost simple computation. Different versions of this algorithm are developed which are differ in templateupdating and their window sizes. To measure the reliability and accuracy of these methods one shouldnormally rely on visual results or number of iteration. In this paper we introduce two new parameterswhich can be used to compare the algorithms especially when their results are close to each other.

  6. Analysis of Gumbel Model for Software Reliability Using Bayesian Paradigm

    Raj Kumar

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we have illustrated the suitability of Gumbel Model for software reliability data. The model parameters are estimated using likelihood based inferential procedure: classical as well as Bayesian. The quasi Newton-Raphson algorithm is applied to obtain the maximum likelihood estimates and associated probability intervals. The Bayesian estimates of the parameters of Gumbel model are obtained using Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC simulation method in OpenBUGS(established software for Bayesian analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. The R functions are developed to study the statistical properties, model validation and comparison tools of the model and the output analysis of MCMC samples generated from OpenBUGS. Details of applying MCMC to parameter estimation for the Gumbel model are elaborated and a real software reliability data set is considered to illustrate the methods of inference discussed in this paper.

  7. Reliability analysis of maintenance operations for railway tracks

    Railway engineering is confronted with problems due to degradation of the railway network that requires important and costly maintenance work. However, because of the lack of knowledge on the geometrical and mechanical parameters of the track, it is difficult to optimize the maintenance management. In this context, this paper presents a new methodology to analyze the behavior of railway tracks. It combines new diagnostic devices which permit to obtain an important amount of data and thus to make statistics on the geometric and mechanical parameters and a non-intrusive stochastic approach which can be coupled with any mechanical model. Numerical results show the possibilities of this methodology for reliability analysis of different maintenance operations. In the future this approach will give important informations to railway managers to optimize maintenance operations using a reliability analysis

  8. Reliability analysis using an enhanced response surface moment method

    Moment methods, which are powerful and simple techniques for analyzing the reliability of a system, evaluate the statistical moments of a system response function and use information from the probability distribution in the analysis. The full factorial moment method (FFMM) performs reliability analysis by using a 3n full factorial design of experiments (DOE) and the Pearson system for random variables. To overcome the inefficiency of FFMM, the response surface moment method (RSMM) has been proposed, which is based on a response surface model (RSM) that is updated by adding cross product terms into the simple quadratic model. In this paper, we propose the enhanced RSMM (RSMM+) that modifies the procedure of selecting a cross product term in the RSMM and adds a process of judging whether the response surface model can be established before performing an additional experiment. We apply the proposed method to several examples and show that it gives better results in efficiency

  9. THE INVESTMENT RELIABILITY ANALYSIS FOR A SURFACE MINE

    彭世济; 卢明银; 张达贤

    1990-01-01

    It is stipulated in the China national document, named"The Economical Appraisal Methods for Construction Projects" that dynamic analysis should dominate the project economical appraisal methods.This paper has set up a dynamic investment forecast model for Yuanbaoshan Surface Coal Mine. Based on this model, the investment reliability using simulation and analytic methods has been analysed, anti the probability that the designed internal rate of return can reach 8.4%, from economic points of view, have been also studied.

  10. Reliability analysis based on the losses from failures.

    Todinov, M T

    2006-04-01

    The conventional reliability analysis is based on the premise that increasing the reliability of a system will decrease the losses from failures. On the basis of counterexamples, it is demonstrated that this is valid only if all failures are associated with the same losses. In case of failures associated with different losses, a system with larger reliability is not necessarily characterized by smaller losses from failures. Consequently, a theoretical framework and models are proposed for a reliability analysis, linking reliability and the losses from failures. Equations related to the distributions of the potential losses from failure have been derived. It is argued that the classical risk equation only estimates the average value of the potential losses from failure and does not provide insight into the variability associated with the potential losses. Equations have also been derived for determining the potential and the expected losses from failures for nonrepairable and repairable systems with components arranged in series, with arbitrary life distributions. The equations are also valid for systems/components with multiple mutually exclusive failure modes. The expected losses given failure is a linear combination of the expected losses from failure associated with the separate failure modes scaled by the conditional probabilities with which the failure modes initiate failure. On this basis, an efficient method for simplifying complex reliability block diagrams has been developed. Branches of components arranged in series whose failures are mutually exclusive can be reduced to single components with equivalent hazard rate, downtime, and expected costs associated with intervention and repair. A model for estimating the expected losses from early-life failures has also been developed. For a specified time interval, the expected losses from early-life failures are a sum of the products of the expected number of failures in the specified time intervals covering the

  11. Inclusion of task dependence in human reliability analysis

    Dependence assessment among human errors in human reliability analysis (HRA) is an important issue, which includes the evaluation of the dependence among human tasks and the effect of the dependence on the final human error probability (HEP). This paper represents a computational model to handle dependence in human reliability analysis. The aim of the study is to automatically provide conclusions on the overall degree of dependence and calculate the conditional human error probability (CHEP) once the judgments of the input factors are given. The dependence influencing factors are first identified by the experts and the priorities of these factors are also taken into consideration. Anchors and qualitative labels are provided as guidance for the HRA analyst's judgment of the input factors. The overall degree of dependence between human failure events is calculated based on the input values and the weights of the input factors. Finally, the CHEP is obtained according to a computing formula derived from the technique for human error rate prediction (THERP) method. The proposed method is able to quantify the subjective judgment from the experts and improve the transparency in the HEP evaluation process. Two examples are illustrated to show the effectiveness and the flexibility of the proposed method. - Highlights: • We propose a computational model to handle dependence in human reliability analysis. • The priorities of the dependence influencing factors are taken into consideration. • The overall dependence degree is determined by input judgments and the weights of factors. • The CHEP is obtained according to a computing formula derived from THERP

  12. Reliability analysis of crack propagation behavior of reactor components

    A reliability analysis was carried out on a circumferential weld in the main coolant loop of a PWR with the aim of estimating the probability of a leak or break occurring in the planned life cycle of the plant. To get a basis for the reliability analysis the following influence factors were more closely examined: initial crack extent, load spectrum including the emergency 'earthquake' situation and crack growth characteristics. For the actual reliability analysis a computer program was developed, which took the individual input data, in accordance with their statistical parameter, into account in a simulation calculation in line with the Monte Carlo Method. The Forman Formula was used to estimate the fatigue crack growth caused by the sequence of load events. The result was, that the fatigue crack growth, even in the case of large initial cracks, was negligibly small. The probability, that, in the case of very deep initial cracks, one-off high quasi-static load, e.g. during an earthquake, could cause a locally limited crack-through, was estimated to be about 5x10-6 in forty years. (orig./HP)

  13. High-Reliable PLC RTOS Development and RPS Structure Analysis

    One of the KNICS objectives is to develop a platform for Nuclear Power Plant(NPP) I and C(Instrumentation and Control) system, especially plant protection system. The developed platform is POSAFE-Q and this work supports the development of POSAFE-Q with the development of high-reliable real-time operating system(RTOS) and programmable logic device(PLD) software. Another KNICS objective is to develop safety I and C systems, such as Reactor Protection System(RPS) and Engineered Safety Feature-Component Control System(ESF-CCS). This work plays an important role in the structure analysis for RPS. Validation and verification(V and V) of the safety critical software is an essential work to make digital plant protection system highly reliable and safe. Generally, the reliability and safety of software based system can be improved by strict quality assurance framework including the software development itself. In other words, through V and V, the reliability and safety of a system can be improved and the development activities like software requirement specification, software design specification, component tests, integration tests, and system tests shall be appropriately documented for V and V.

  14. Reliability engineering analysis of ATLAS data reprocessing campaigns

    During three years of LHC data taking, the ATLAS collaboration completed three petascale data reprocessing campaigns on the Grid, with up to 2 PB of data being reprocessed every year. In reprocessing on the Grid, failures can occur for a variety of reasons, while Grid heterogeneity makes failures hard to diagnose and repair quickly. As a result, Big Data processing on the Grid must tolerate a continuous stream of failures, errors and faults. While ATLAS fault-tolerance mechanisms improve the reliability of Big Data processing in the Grid, their benefits come at costs and result in delays making the performance prediction difficult. Reliability Engineering provides a framework for fundamental understanding of the Big Data processing on the Grid, which is not a desirable enhancement but a necessary requirement. In ATLAS, cost monitoring and performance prediction became critical for the success of the reprocessing campaigns conducted in preparation for the major physics conferences. In addition, our Reliability Engineering approach supported continuous improvements in data reprocessing throughput during LHC data taking. The throughput doubled in 2011 vs. 2010 reprocessing, then quadrupled in 2012 vs. 2011 reprocessing. We present the Reliability Engineering analysis of ATLAS data reprocessing campaigns providing the foundation needed to scale up the Big Data processing technologies beyond the petascale.

  15. Maximizing personnel performance in plantwide reliability-centered maintenance analysis

    Techniques have been developed and proven effective that can be used to reduce the staffing requirements for implementation of a full-scale plantwide reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) program. The multiphase projects discussed in this paper integrate RCM into a broad-based preventive maintenance program concept that includes several programmatic functions, such as system reliability modeling, computerized RCM data bases, and quantitative and qualitative cost/benefit analyses. Through the use of computerized data bases, system models, equipment failure tracking, and preventive maintenance program effectiveness evaluations, the RCM programs can create a living reliability-based preventive maintenance program. The completed RCM data can be maintained and updated with current plant design and equipment performance history without large staffs of RCM analysts. The goal of any RCM project is the development of a structures and well-justified preventive maintenance program that ensures the reliability of plant components is maximized to the extent that an appropriate cost/benefit is achieved in return for the maintenance dollars expended. The methods discussed were developed for two full-scale RCM projects that are useful when implementing the program on a plantwide basis. The typical approach to RCM has been to establish a process on one pilot system and then continue the RCM process on selected systems periodically. By implementing an RCM program on a plantwide basis, benefits can be realized from and economy of scale and through the implementation of labor-saving analysis aids

  16. A semi-Markov reliability analysis of alternating systems

    Current nuclear power plants must be highly reliable with respect to safety and economy. Consequently, development of a new safety evaluation methodology is desired for the accurate evaluation of safety and economy. A nuclear power plant consists of many systems. This paper is concerned with the reliability evaluation of alternating systems. An alternating system usually consists of multitrains, and its operation alternates from one train to another. Examples of these are the nuclear service cooling water system, the component cooling water system, and the chemical and volume control system. The alternating systems exhibit strong dynamic time-dependent reliability characteristics because of the alternating operational mode and the technical specification requirements that are particularly difficult to analyze by static fault-tree techniques. The method used in this paper is based on the semi-Markov reliability analysis. The system performance measures evaluated are its contribution to the total risk of the plant (e.g., core damage probability) and to plant unavailability (reactor downtime). It is concluded that the methodology developed in this study can be applied to existing alternating systems for plant-specific evaluation of the various alternatives in technical specifications

  17. Electronic system reliability prediction and analysis of effect of redundancy and repair on system reliability

    Domain of electronic systems is increasing day by day. To use them in safety critical applications, such as safety function of nuclear reactor, high reliability of these systems need to be ensured. As reliability measurement is costly and time consuming, models are the only solution. Various methods and models exist for reliability prediction, applicable at different stages. In this paper, a unified approach by integrating different methods to estimate system reliability from its basic components is presented. Techniques to increase the reliability of the system such as redundancy and repair are discussed. A method to determine number of spares, required for a given replaceable module for the mission time is presented. An example is taken to show the effect of redundancy and repair on the system reliability. Paper also discussed the effect of depletion of spare inventory and proposed method to incorporate this in system reliability estimation. (author)

  18. Stability of the Reliability of LibQUAL+ (tm) Scores: A Reliability Generalization Meta-Analysis Study.

    Thompson, Bruce; Cook, Collen

    2002-01-01

    Conducted a reliability generalization meta-analysis of subscale and total scale scores on the Web-administered LibQUAL+ (tm) (Cook and others, 2002), a measure of library service quality. Data for 18,161 participants from 43 universities show that score reliabilities are remarkably invariant across campuses and different over groups. (SLD)

  19. Damage tolerance reliability analysis of automotive spot-welded joints

    Mahadevan, Sankaran; Ni Kan

    2003-07-01

    This paper develops a damage tolerance reliability analysis methodology for automotive spot-welded joints under multi-axial and variable amplitude loading history. The total fatigue life of a spot weld is divided into two parts, crack initiation and crack propagation. The multi-axial loading history is obtained from transient response finite element analysis of a vehicle model. A three-dimensional finite element model of a simplified joint with four spot welds is developed for static stress/strain analysis. A probabilistic Miner's rule is combined with a randomized strain-life curve family and the stress/strain analysis result to develop a strain-based probabilistic fatigue crack initiation life prediction for spot welds. Afterwards, the fatigue crack inside the base material sheet is modeled as a surface crack. Then a probabilistic crack growth model is combined with the stress analysis result to develop a probabilistic fatigue crack growth life prediction for spot welds. Both methods are implemented with MSC/NASTRAN and MSC/FATIGUE software, and are useful for reliability assessment of automotive spot-welded joints against fatigue and fracture.

  20. Modeling of seismic hazards for dynamic reliability analysis

    This paper investigates the appropriate indices of seismic hazard curves (SHCs) for seismic reliability analysis. In the most seismic reliability analyses of structures, the seismic hazards are defined in the form of the SHCs of peak ground accelerations (PGAs). Usually PGAs play a significant role in characterizing ground motions. However, PGA is not always a suitable index of seismic motions. When random vibration theory developed in the frequency domain is employed to obtain statistics of responses, it is more convenient for the implementation of dynamic reliability analysis (DRA) to utilize an index which can be determined in the frequency domain. In this paper, we summarize relationships among the indices which characterize ground motions. The relationships between the indices and the magnitude M are arranged as well. In this consideration, duration time plays an important role in relating two distinct class, i.e. energy class and power class. Fourier and energy spectra are involved in the energy class, and power and response spectra and PGAs are involved in the power class. These relationships are also investigated by using ground motion records. Through these investigations, we have shown the efficiency of employing the total energy as an index of SHCs, which can be determined in the time and frequency domains and has less variance than the other indices. In addition, we have proposed the procedure of DRA based on total energy. (author)

  1. Strength Reliability Analysis of Stiffened Cylindrical Shells Considering Failure Correlation

    Xu Bai; Liping Sun; Wei Qin; Yongkun Lv

    2014-01-01

    The stiffened cylindrical shell is commonly used for the pressure hull of submersibles and the legs of offshore platforms. There are various failure modes because of uncertainty with the structural size and material properties, uncertainty of the calculation model and machining errors. Correlations among failure modes must be considered with the structural reliability of stiffened cylindrical shells. However, the traditional method cannot consider the correlations effectively. The aim of this study is to present a method of reliability analysis for stiffened cylindrical shells which considers the correlations among failure modes. Firstly, the joint failure probability calculation formula of two related failure modes is derived through use of the 2D joint probability density function. Secondly, the full probability formula of the tandem structural system is given with consideration to the correlations among failure modes. At last, the accuracy of the system reliability calculation is verified through use of the Monte Carlo simulation. Result of the analysis shows the failure probability of stiffened cylindrical shells can be gained through adding the failure probability of each mode.

  2. An improved radial basis function network for structural reliability analysis

    Approximation methods such as response surface method and artificial neural network (ANN) method are widely used to alleviate the computation costs in structural reliability analysis. However most of the ANN methods proposed in the literature suffer various drawbacks such as poor choice of parameter setting, poor generalization and local minimum. In this study, a support vector machine-based radial basis function (RBF) network method is proposed, in which the improved RBF model is used to approximate the limit state function and then is connected to a reliability method to estimate failure probability. Since the learning algorithm of RBF network is replaced by the support vector algorithm, the advantage of the latter, such as good generalization ability and global optimization are propagated to the former, thus the inherent drawback of RBF network can be defeated. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the applicability of the improved RBF network method in structural reliability analysis, as well as to illustrate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed method

  3. Mutation Analysis Approach to Develop Reliable Object-Oriented Software

    Monalisa Sarma

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In general, modern programs are large and complex and it is essential that they should be highly reliable in applications. In order to develop highly reliable software, Java programming language developer provides a rich set of exceptions and exception handling mechanisms. Exception handling mechanisms are intended to help developers build robust programs. Given a program with exception handling constructs, for an effective testing, we are to detect whether all possible exceptions are raised and caught or not. However, complex exception handling constructs make it tedious to trace which exceptions are handled and where and which exceptions are passed on. In this paper, we address this problem and propose a mutation analysis approach to develop reliable object-oriented programs. We have applied a number of mutation operators to create a large set of mutant programs with different type of faults. We then generate test cases and test data to uncover exception related faults. The test suite so obtained is applied to the mutant programs measuring the mutation score and hence verifying whether mutant programs are effective or not. We have tested our approach with a number of case studies to substantiate the efficacy of the proposed mutation analysis technique.

  4. Comparative Analysis of Classifier Fusers

    Marcin Zmyslony

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available There are many methods of decision making by an ensemble of classifiers. The most popular are methods that have their origin in voting method, where the decision of the common classifier is a combination of individual classifiers’ outputs. This work presents comparative analysis of some classifier fusion methods based on weighted voting of classifiers’ responses and combination of classifiers’ discriminant functions. We discus different methods of producing combined classifiers based on weights. We show that it is notpossible to obtain classifier better than an abstract model of committee known as an Oracle if it is based only on weighted voting but models based on discriminant function or classifier using feature values and class numbers could outperform the Oracle as well. Delivered conclusions are confirmed by the results of computer experiments carried out on benchmark and computer generated data.

  5. Comparative Analysis of Classifier Fusers

    Marcin Zmyslony

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available There are many methods of decision making by an ensemble of classifiers. The most popular are methods that have their origin in voting method, where the decision of the common classifier is a combination of individual classifiers’ outputs. This work presents comparative analysis of some classifier fusion methods based on weighted voting of classifiers’ responses and combination of classifiers’ discriminant functions. We discus different methods of producing combined classifiers based on weights. We show that it is not possible to obtain classifier better than an abstract model of committee known as an Oracle if it is based only on weighted voting but models based on discriminant function or classifier using feature values and class numbers could outperform the Oracle as well. Delivered conclusions are confirmed by the results of computer experiments carried out on benchmark and computer generated data.

  6. Comparative analysis of collaboration networks

    In this paper we carry out a comparative analysis of the word network as the collaboration network based on the novel by M. Bulgakov 'Master and Margarita', the synonym network of the Russian language as well as the Russian movie actor network. We have constructed one-mode projections of these networks, defined degree distributions for them and have calculated main characteristics. In the paper a generation algorithm of collaboration networks has been offered which allows one to generate networks statistically equivalent to the studied ones. It lets us reveal a structural correlation between word network, synonym network and movie actor network. We show that the degree distributions of all analyzable networks are described by the distribution of q-type.

  7. User's manual of a support system for human reliability analysis

    Many kinds of human reliability analysis (HRA) methods have been developed. However, users are required to be skillful so as to use them, and also required complicated works such as drawing event tree (ET) and calculation of uncertainty bounds. Moreover, each method is not so complete that only one method of them is not enough to evaluate human reliability. Therefore, a personal computer (PC) based support system for HRA has been developed to execute HRA practically and efficiently. The system consists of two methods, namely, simple method and detailed one. The former uses ASEP that is a simplified THERP-technique, and combined method of OAT and HRA-ET/DeBDA is used for the latter. Users can select a suitable method for their purpose. Human error probability (HEP) data were collected and a database of them was built to use for the support system. This paper describes outline of the HRA methods, support functions and user's guide of the system. (author)

  8. Reliability analysis of Indian pressurized heavy water reactor piping

    In this paper, a probabilistic analysis of primary heat transport of Indian Pressurized Heavy Water reactor is presented. The probability of failure of the straight pipes with through wall circumferential flaws subjected to bending moment is calculated. The failure criteria considered is net section collapse and R6 method. Probability of failure is obtained with crack growth initiation as the limiting condition. The variability in the crack size and material properties (tensile and fracture) is considered. The probability of failure is calculated at different levels of applied load. Various methods of probability estimation are presented and their equivalence is demonstrated. The probability of failure is obtained using classical Monte Carlo method, Monte Carlo with importance sampling, First Order Reliability Method (FORM), Second Order Reliability Method (SORM) and by numerical integration of the failure integral using Lepage's VEGAS algorithm. The results are utilized for demonstrating that for the leakage size crack, the pipe design has high probability for leak before break. (orig.)

  9. Review of the treat upgrade reactor scram system reliability analysis

    In order to resolve some key LMFBR safety issues, ANL personnel are modifying the TREAT reactor to handle much larger experiments. As a result of these modifications, the upgraded Treat reactor will not always operate in a self-limited mode. During certain experiments in the upgraded TREAT reactor, it is possible that the fuel could be damaged by overheating if, once the computer systems fail, the reactor scram system (RSS) fails on demand. To help ensure that the upgraded TREAT reactor is shut down when required, ANL personnel have designed a triply redundant RSS for the facility. The RSS is designed to meet three reliability goals: (1) a loss of capability failure probability of 10-9/demand (independent failures only); (2) an inadvertent shutdown probability of 10-3/experiment; and (3) protection agaist any known potential common cause failures. According to ANL's reliability analysis of the RSS, this system substantially meets these goals

  10. Human reliability analysis for accident sequences in NPP

    The purpose of this paper is to perform a human performance analysis in accident conditions for the operating NPP. This analysis is realized using Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) methods. HRA methods have necessary tools to analyze the human actions, to estimate the human error probabilities and to identify the major factors which could have a negative influence on the mitigating of the consequences of the abnormal events in NPP. The analyzed events are from CANDU 600 NPP. In order to achieve the analysis of these events the THEP and SPAR-H methods were used. After analyzing the results the actuated equipment, the negative influence factors on the human performance and the dependence levels between the human actions and between the human actions and diagnosis were established. In addition, some recommendations were formulated which could influence positive the human performance on the mitigating of the consequences of the accident sequences in NPP. (authors)

  11. Limits of reliability of optical properties of commercial glass in Mexico, a comparative analysis with experimental results; Limites de confiabilidad de propiedades opticas de vidrios comerciales en mexico, analisis comparativo con resultados experimentales

    Barrios Rodriguez, Pilar; Dorantes Rodriguez, Ruben J. [Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana Azcapotzalco, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)

    2000-07-01

    The heat transfer through the buildings has been increased by the intensive use of glass in the building's covering; this situation has demanded more electrical energy for compensate the heat's gain or loss. Energy use in buildings is responsible for some 50% of CO{sub 2} emissions in many countries, so it's necessary a building's thermal design for a rational use of energy. The glass is an important material in the building's encircling, so it's essential to count on precise values of the glass's properties for design building's covering. Experimental evaluation on optical properties in some building's glasses to compare the experimental values with manufacturer's reported values inside tolerance limits. [Spanish] La ganancia de calor solar al interior de las edificaciones se ha visto incrementada por la tendencia actual en el uso intensivo y extensivo del vidrio en la envolvente, lo que ha aumentado la necesidad del uso de energia electrica para compensar con climatizacion artificial las ganancias y/o perdidas termicas en los espacios interiores de las edificaciones. El gasto energetico en edificios es responsable de cerca del 50% de emision de CO{sub 2} en varios paises, por lo que es necesario un diseno termico de la envolvente que contempla un uso racional de la energia. Por la importancia termica que el vidrio tiene en la envolvente de las edificaciones y la necesidad de contar con el valor de las propiedades lo mas preciso posible para su diseno, se planteo evaluar en forma experimental el comportamiento termico de algunos vidrios que tuviesen uso tanto real como potencial en las edificaciones de nuestro pais y comparar los valores obtenidos con los valores reportados por los fabricantes dentro de limites de tolerancia o confiabilidad.

  12. Improvement of human reliability analysis method for PRA

    It is required to refine human reliability analysis (HRA) method by, for example, incorporating consideration for the cognitive process of operator into the evaluation of diagnosis errors and decision-making errors, as a part of the development and improvement of methods used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs). JNES has been developed a HRA method based on ATHENA which is suitable to handle the structured relationship among diagnosis errors, decision-making errors and operator cognition process. This report summarizes outcomes obtained from the improvement of HRA method, in which enhancement to evaluate how the plant degraded condition affects operator cognitive process and to evaluate human error probabilities (HEPs) which correspond to the contents of operator tasks is made. In addition, this report describes the results of case studies on the representative accident sequences to investigate the applicability of HRA method developed. HEPs of the same accident sequences are also estimated using THERP method, which is most popularly used HRA method, and comparisons of the results obtained using these two methods are made to depict the differences of these methods and issues to be solved. Important conclusions obtained are as follows: (1) Improvement of HRA method using operator cognitive action model. Clarification of factors to be considered in the evaluation of human errors, incorporation of degraded plant safety condition into HRA and investigation of HEPs which are affected by the contents of operator tasks were made to improve the HRA method which can integrate operator cognitive action model into ATHENA method. In addition, the detail of procedures of the improved method was delineated in the form of flowchart. (2) Case studies and comparison with the results evaluated by THERP method. Four operator actions modeled in the PRAs of representative BWR5 and 4-loop PWR plants were selected and evaluated as case studies. These cases were also evaluated using

  13. Decision theory, the context for risk and reliability analysis

    According to this model of the decision process then, the optimum decision is that option having the largest expected utility. This is the fundamental model of a decision situation. It is necessary to remark that in order for the model to represent a real-life decision situation, it must include all the options present in that situation, including, for example, the option of not deciding--which is itself a decision, although usually not the optimum one. Similarly, it should include the option of delaying the decision while the authors gather further information. Both of these options have probabilities, outcomes, impacts, and utilities like any option and should be included explicitly in the decision diagram. The reason for doing a quantitative risk or reliability analysis is always that, somewhere underlying there is a decision to be made. The decision analysis therefore always forms the context for the risk or reliability analysis, and this context shapes the form and language of that analysis. Therefore, they give in this section a brief review of the well-known decision theory diagram

  14. Reliability and risk analysis data base development: an historical perspective

    Collection of empirical data and data base development for use in the prediction of the probability of future events has a long history. Dating back at least to the 17th century, safe passage events and mortality events were collected and analyzed to uncover prospective underlying classes and associated class attributes. Tabulations of these developed classes and associated attributes formed the underwriting basis for the fledgling insurance industry. Much earlier, master masons and architects used design rules of thumb to capture the experience of the ages and thereby produce structures of incredible longevity and reliability (Antona, E., Fragola, J. and Galvagni, R. Risk based decision analysis in design. Fourth SRA Europe Conference Proceedings, Rome, Italy, 18-20 October 1993). These rules served so well in producing robust designs that it was not until almost the 19th century that the analysis (Charlton, T.M., A History Of Theory Of Structures In The 19th Century, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1982) of masonry voussoir arches, begun by Galileo some two centuries earlier (Galilei, G. Discorsi e dimostrazioni mathematiche intorno a due nuove science, (Discourses and mathematical demonstrations concerning two new sciences, Leiden, The Netherlands, 1638), was placed on a sound scientific basis. Still, with the introduction of new materials (such as wrought iron and steel) and the lack of theoretical knowledge and computational facilities, approximate methods of structural design abounded well into the second half of the 20th century. To this day structural designers account for material variations and gaps in theoretical knowledge by employing factors of safety (Benvenuto, E., An Introduction to the History of Structural Mechanics, Part II: Vaulted Structures and Elastic Systems, Springer-Verlag, NY, 1991) or codes of practice (ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, ASME, New York) originally developed in the 19th century (Antona, E., Fragola, J. and

  15. Reliability and availability analysis of two alternative evacuation systems designed for the Next European Torus (NET)

    This paper discusses the reliability and availability issues in case of two different evacuation system designs which have been proposed for the Next European Torus (NET). One of these designs uses turbo molecular pumps while the other employs cryogenic pumps to evacuate waste products from the torus after every fusion cycle. The aim of this paper is to assess and compare the feasibility of the above two designs form the reliability and availability point of view. A detailed failure mode analysis has been carried out for these two systems and appropriate mathematical mdoels have been developed to calculate their respective reliabilities. Using these mathematical models an extensive parameter study of the system reliability has been carried out over a given range of the component reliabilities. This parameter study shows that the maximum value of the turbo molecular pump system reliability is 96% while the corresponding value for the cryogenic pump system is only 81.6%. The target value for the system availability is 99.9%. This requires that the system mean repair time should be 48 h, appropriate modifications must be made to the turbo pump system design to increase its reliability accordingly. (author). 4 refs.; 10 figs

  16. Limitations in simulator time-based human reliability analysis methods

    Developments in human reliability analysis (HRA) methods have evolved slowly. Current methods are little changed from those of almost a decade ago, particularly in the use of time-reliability relationships. While these methods were suitable as an interim step, the time (and the need) has come to specify the next evolution of HRA methods. As with any performance-oriented data source, power plant simulator data have no direct connection to HRA models. Errors reported in data are normal deficiencies observed in human performance; failures are events modeled in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs). Not all errors cause failures; not all failures are caused by errors. Second, the times at which actions are taken provide no measure of the likelihood of failures to act correctly within an accident scenario. Inferences can be made about human reliability, but they must be made with great care. Specific limitations are discussed. Simulator performance data are useful in providing qualitative evidence of the variety of error types and their potential influences on operating systems. More work is required to combine recent developments in the psychology of error with the qualitative data collected at stimulators. Until data become openly available, however, such an advance will not be practical

  17. Reliability and risk analysis using artificial neural networks

    Robinson, D.G. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-12-31

    This paper discusses preliminary research at Sandia National Laboratories into the application of artificial neural networks for reliability and risk analysis. The goal of this effort is to develop a reliability based methodology that captures the complex relationship between uncertainty in material properties and manufacturing processes and the resulting uncertainty in life prediction estimates. The inputs to the neural network model are probability density functions describing system characteristics and the output is a statistical description of system performance. The most recent application of this methodology involves the comparison of various low-residue, lead-free soldering processes with the desire to minimize the associated waste streams with no reduction in product reliability. Model inputs include statistical descriptions of various material properties such as the coefficients of thermal expansion of solder and substrate. Consideration is also given to stochastic variation in the operational environment to which the electronic components might be exposed. Model output includes a probabilistic characterization of the fatigue life of the surface mounted component.

  18. A Research Roadmap for Computation-Based Human Reliability Analysis

    Boring, Ronald [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Joe, Jeffrey [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Smith, Curtis [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Groth, Katrina [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-08-01

    The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) is sponsoring research through the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program to extend the life of the currently operating fleet of commercial nuclear power plants. The Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) research pathway within LWRS looks at ways to maintain and improve the safety margins of these plants. The RISMC pathway includes significant developments in the area of thermalhydraulics code modeling and the development of tools to facilitate dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). PRA is primarily concerned with the risk of hardware systems at the plant; yet, hardware reliability is often secondary in overall risk significance to human errors that can trigger or compound undesirable events at the plant. This report highlights ongoing efforts to develop a computation-based approach to human reliability analysis (HRA). This computation-based approach differs from existing static and dynamic HRA approaches in that it: (i) interfaces with a dynamic computation engine that includes a full scope plant model, and (ii) interfaces with a PRA software toolset. The computation-based HRA approach presented in this report is called the Human Unimodels for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) and incorporates in a hybrid fashion elements of existing HRA methods to interface with new computational tools developed under the RISMC pathway. The goal of this research effort is to model human performance more accurately than existing approaches, thereby minimizing modeling uncertainty found in current plant risk models.

  19. Failure and Reliability Analysis for the Master Pump Shutdown System

    BEVINS, R.R.

    2000-09-05

    The Master Pump Shutdown System (MPSS) will be installed in the 200 Areas of the Hanford Site to monitor and control the transfer of liquid waste between tank farms and between the 200 West and 200 East areas through the Cross-Site Transfer Line. The Safety Function provided by the MPSS is to shutdown any waste transfer process within or between tank farms if a waste leak should occur along the selected transfer route. The MPSS, which provides this Safety Class Function, is composed of Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs), interconnecting wires, relays, Human to Machine Interfaces (HMI), and software. These components are defined as providing a Safety Class Function and will be designated in this report as MPSS/PLC. Input signals to the MPSS/PLC are provided by leak detection systems from each of the tank farm leak detector locations along the waste transfer route. The combination of the MPSS/PLC, leak detection system, and transfer pump controller system will be referred to as MPSS/SYS. The components addressed in this analysis are associated with the MPSS/SYS. The purpose of this failure and reliability analysis is to address the following design issues of the Project Development Specification (PDS) for the MPSS/SYS (HNF 2000a): (1) Single Component Failure Criterion, (2) System Status Upon Loss of Electrical Power, (3) Physical Separation of Safety Class cables, (4) Physical Isolation of Safety Class Wiring from General Service Wiring, and (5) Meeting the MPSS/PLC Option 1b (RPP 1999) Reliability estimate. The failure and reliability analysis examined the system on a component level basis and identified any hardware or software elements that could fail and/or prevent the system from performing its intended safety function.

  20. Fifty Years of THERP and Human Reliability Analysis

    Ronald L. Boring

    2012-06-01

    In 1962 at a Human Factors Society symposium, Alan Swain presented a paper introducing a Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP). This was followed in 1963 by a Sandia Laboratories monograph outlining basic human error quantification using THERP and, in 1964, by a special journal edition of Human Factors on quantification of human performance. Throughout the 1960s, Swain and his colleagues focused on collecting human performance data for the Sandia Human Error Rate Bank (SHERB), primarily in connection with supporting the reliability of nuclear weapons assembly in the US. In 1969, Swain met with Jens Rasmussen of Risø National Laboratory and discussed the applicability of THERP to nuclear power applications. By 1975, in WASH-1400, Swain had articulated the use of THERP for nuclear power applications, and the approach was finalized in the watershed publication of the NUREG/CR-1278 in 1983. THERP is now 50 years old, and remains the most well known and most widely used HRA method. In this paper, the author discusses the history of THERP, based on published reports and personal communication and interviews with Swain. The author also outlines the significance of THERP. The foundations of human reliability analysis are found in THERP: human failure events, task analysis, performance shaping factors, human error probabilities, dependence, event trees, recovery, and pre- and post-initiating events were all introduced in THERP. While THERP is not without its detractors, and it is showing signs of its age in the face of newer technological applications, the longevity of THERP is a testament of its tremendous significance. THERP started the field of human reliability analysis. This paper concludes with a discussion of THERP in the context of newer methods, which can be seen as extensions of or departures from Swain’s pioneering work.

  1. Passive system reliability analysis using the APSRA methodology

    In this paper, we present a methodology known as APSRA (Assessment of Passive System ReliAbility) for evaluation of reliability of passive systems. The methodology has been applied to the boiling natural circulation system in the Main Heat Transport System of the Indian AHWR concept. In the APSRA methodology, the passive system reliability is evaluated from the evaluation of the failure probability of the system to carryout the desired function. The methodology first determines the operational characteristics of the system and the failure conditions by assigning a predetermined failure criteria. The failure surface is predicted using a best estimate code considering deviations of the operating parameters from their nominal states, which affect the natural circulation performance. Since applicability of the best estimate codes to passive systems are neither proven nor understood enough, APSRA relies more on experimental data for various aspects of natural circulation such as steady-state natural circulation, flow instabilities, CHF under oscillatory condition, etc. APSRA proposes to compare the code predictions with the test data to generate the uncertainties on the failure parameter prediction, which is later considered in the code for accurate prediction of failure surface of the system. Once the failure surface of the system is predicted, the cause of failure is examined through root diagnosis, which occurs mainly due to failure of mechanical components. The failure probability of these components are evaluated through a classical PSA treatment using the generic data. Reliability of the natural circulation system is evaluated from the probability of availability of the components for the success of natural circulation in the system

  2. IDHEAS – A NEW APPROACH FOR HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS

    G. W. Parry; J.A Forester; V.N. Dang; S. M. L. Hendrickson; M. Presley; E. Lois; J. Xing

    2013-09-01

    This paper describes a method, IDHEAS (Integrated Decision-Tree Human Event Analysis System) that has been developed jointly by the US NRC and EPRI as an improved approach to Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) that is based on an understanding of the cognitive mechanisms and performance influencing factors (PIFs) that affect operator responses. The paper describes the various elements of the method, namely the performance of a detailed cognitive task analysis that is documented in a crew response tree (CRT), and the development of the associated time-line to identify the critical tasks, i.e. those whose failure results in a human failure event (HFE), and an approach to quantification that is based on explanations of why the HFE might occur.

  3. Human Performance Modeling for Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis

    Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Laboratory; Joe, Jeffrey Clark [Idaho National Laboratory; Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Laboratory

    2015-08-01

    Part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Light Water Reac- tor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Charac- terization (RISMC) Pathway develops approaches to estimating and managing safety margins. RISMC simulations pair deterministic plant physics models with probabilistic risk models. As human interactions are an essential element of plant risk, it is necessary to integrate human actions into the RISMC risk framework. In this paper, we review simulation based and non simulation based human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. This paper summarizes the founda- tional information needed to develop a feasible approach to modeling human in- teractions in RISMC simulations.

  4. Reliability analysis of structures under periodic proof tests in service

    Yang, J.-N.

    1976-01-01

    A reliability analysis of structures subjected to random service loads and periodic proof tests treats gust loads and maneuver loads as random processes. Crack initiation, crack propagation, and strength degradation are treated as the fatigue process. The time to fatigue crack initiation and ultimate strength are random variables. Residual strength decreases during crack propagation, so that failure rate increases with time. When a structure fails under periodic proof testing, a new structure is built and proof-tested. The probability of structural failure in service is derived from treatment of all the random variables, strength degradations, service loads, proof tests, and the renewal of failed structures. Some numerical examples are worked out.

  5. Reliability analysis of selected systems of nuclear power unit

    The reliability analysis is discussed of selected facilities of the 440 MW nuclear power unit using the failure tree method. The first part of the paper deals with the primary circuit and analyses the possibility of a dangerous failure arising of the system of accident alarm of the first order of the WWER 440 nuclear reactor during the event of the ''outage of four and more circulating pumps''. The second part of the paper is related to the secondary circuit. It studies the causes and probabilities of the failures of functions of condensate flow pumping and control with regard to the event the ''turbogenerator failure''. (author)

  6. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF CELEBRITY AND NON-CELEBRITY ADVERTISEMENT

    Ammar Asad; Muhammad Naseem Hayat; Shafaqat Mehmood

    2013-01-01

    This study is undertaken to make a comparative analysis of celebrity advertisement and non-celebrity advertisement with respect to attitude toward advertisement, attitude toward brand, purchase intentions, and advertising attributes. For this purpose, a simple random sample of 200 students studying four different disciplines was taken from the Private University in Lahore. For econometric proof, reliability analysis, descriptive analysis, and independent sample T-test was used to interpret th...

  7. Development of distribution system reliability and risk analysis models

    Northcote-Green, J. E. D.; Vismor, T. D.; Brooks, C. L.

    1981-08-01

    The overall objectives of a research project were to: determine distribution reliability assessment methods currently used by the industry; develop a general outage reporting scheme suitable for a wide variety of distributing utilities (reliability model); develop a model for predicting the reliability of future system configurations (risk model); and compile a handbook of reliability assessment methods designed specifically for use by the practicing distribution engineer. Emphasis was placed on compiling and organizing reliability assessment techniques presently used by the industry. The project examined reliability evaluation from two perspectives: historical and predictive assessment. Two reliability assessment models, HISRAM - the historical reliability assessment model and PRAM - the predictive reliability assessment model were developed. Each model was tested in a utility environment by the Duquesne Light Company and the Public Service Electric and Gas Company of New Jersey. A survey of 56 diverse utilities served as a basis for examining current distribution reliability assessment practices in the electric power industry.

  8. Tailoring a Human Reliability Analysis to Your Industry Needs

    DeMott, D. L.

    2016-01-01

    Companies at risk of accidents caused by human error that result in catastrophic consequences include: airline industry mishaps, medical malpractice, medication mistakes, aerospace failures, major oil spills, transportation mishaps, power production failures and manufacturing facility incidents. Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) is used to analyze the inherent risk of human behavior or actions introducing errors into the operation of a system or process. These assessments can be used to identify where errors are most likely to arise and the potential risks involved if they do occur. Using the basic concepts of HRA, an evolving group of methodologies are used to meet various industry needs. Determining which methodology or combination of techniques will provide a quality human reliability assessment is a key element to developing effective strategies for understanding and dealing with risks caused by human errors. There are a number of concerns and difficulties in "tailoring" a Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) for different industries. Although a variety of HRA methodologies are available to analyze human error events, determining the most appropriate tools to provide the most useful results can depend on industry specific cultures and requirements. Methodology selection may be based on a variety of factors that include: 1) how people act and react in different industries, 2) expectations based on industry standards, 3) factors that influence how the human errors could occur such as tasks, tools, environment, workplace, support, training and procedure, 4) type and availability of data, 5) how the industry views risk & reliability, and 6) types of emergencies, contingencies and routine tasks. Other considerations for methodology selection should be based on what information is needed from the assessment. If the principal concern is determination of the primary risk factors contributing to the potential human error, a more detailed analysis method may be employed

  9. Inclusion of fatigue effects in human reliability analysis

    The effect of fatigue on human performance has been observed to be an important factor in many industrial accidents. However, defining and measuring fatigue is not easily accomplished. This creates difficulties in including fatigue effects in probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of complex engineering systems that seek to include human reliability analysis (HRA). Thus the objectives of this paper are to discuss (1) the importance of the effects of fatigue on performance, (2) the difficulties associated with defining and measuring fatigue, (3) the current status of inclusion of fatigue in HRA methods, and (4) the future directions and challenges for the inclusion of fatigue, specifically sleep deprivation, in HRA. - Highlights: →We highlight the need for fatigue and sleep deprivation effects on performance to be included in human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. Current methods do not explicitly include sleep deprivation effects. → We discuss the difficulties in defining and measuring fatigue. → We review sleep deprivation research, and discuss the limitations and future needs of the current HRA methods.

  10. Inclusion of fatigue effects in human reliability analysis

    Griffith, Candice D. [Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN (United States); Mahadevan, Sankaran, E-mail: sankaran.mahadevan@vanderbilt.edu [Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN (United States)

    2011-11-15

    The effect of fatigue on human performance has been observed to be an important factor in many industrial accidents. However, defining and measuring fatigue is not easily accomplished. This creates difficulties in including fatigue effects in probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of complex engineering systems that seek to include human reliability analysis (HRA). Thus the objectives of this paper are to discuss (1) the importance of the effects of fatigue on performance, (2) the difficulties associated with defining and measuring fatigue, (3) the current status of inclusion of fatigue in HRA methods, and (4) the future directions and challenges for the inclusion of fatigue, specifically sleep deprivation, in HRA. - Highlights: >We highlight the need for fatigue and sleep deprivation effects on performance to be included in human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. Current methods do not explicitly include sleep deprivation effects. > We discuss the difficulties in defining and measuring fatigue. > We review sleep deprivation research, and discuss the limitations and future needs of the current HRA methods.

  11. Reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode load using Markov Chain Model

    Nikabdullah, N.; Singh, S. S. K.; Alebrahim, R.; Azizi, M. A.; K, Elwaleed A.; Noorani, M. S. M.

    2014-06-01

    The aim of this paper is to present the reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode loading by using a simple two state Markov Chain Model for an automotive crankshaft. The reliability analysis and prediction for any automotive component or structure is important for analyzing and measuring the failure to increase the design life, eliminate or reduce the likelihood of failures and safety risk. The mechanical failures of the crankshaft are due of high bending and torsion stress concentration from high cycle and low rotating bending and torsional stress. The Markov Chain was used to model the two states based on the probability of failure due to bending and torsion stress. In most investigations it revealed that bending stress is much serve than torsional stress, therefore the probability criteria for the bending state would be higher compared to the torsion state. A statistical comparison between the developed Markov Chain Model and field data was done to observe the percentage of error. The reliability analysis and prediction was derived and illustrated from the Markov Chain Model were shown in the Weibull probability and cumulative distribution function, hazard rate and reliability curve and the bathtub curve. It can be concluded that Markov Chain Model has the ability to generate near similar data with minimal percentage of error and for a practical application; the proposed model provides a good accuracy in determining the reliability for the crankshaft under mixed mode loading.

  12. Reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode load using Markov Chain Model

    The aim of this paper is to present the reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode loading by using a simple two state Markov Chain Model for an automotive crankshaft. The reliability analysis and prediction for any automotive component or structure is important for analyzing and measuring the failure to increase the design life, eliminate or reduce the likelihood of failures and safety risk. The mechanical failures of the crankshaft are due of high bending and torsion stress concentration from high cycle and low rotating bending and torsional stress. The Markov Chain was used to model the two states based on the probability of failure due to bending and torsion stress. In most investigations it revealed that bending stress is much serve than torsional stress, therefore the probability criteria for the bending state would be higher compared to the torsion state. A statistical comparison between the developed Markov Chain Model and field data was done to observe the percentage of error. The reliability analysis and prediction was derived and illustrated from the Markov Chain Model were shown in the Weibull probability and cumulative distribution function, hazard rate and reliability curve and the bathtub curve. It can be concluded that Markov Chain Model has the ability to generate near similar data with minimal percentage of error and for a practical application; the proposed model provides a good accuracy in determining the reliability for the crankshaft under mixed mode loading

  13. Reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode load using Markov Chain Model

    Nikabdullah, N. [Department of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia and Institute of Space Science (ANGKASA), Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Malaysia); Singh, S. S. K.; Alebrahim, R.; Azizi, M. A. [Department of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Malaysia); K, Elwaleed A. [Institute of Space Science (ANGKASA), Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Malaysia); Noorani, M. S. M. [School of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Malaysia)

    2014-06-19

    The aim of this paper is to present the reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode loading by using a simple two state Markov Chain Model for an automotive crankshaft. The reliability analysis and prediction for any automotive component or structure is important for analyzing and measuring the failure to increase the design life, eliminate or reduce the likelihood of failures and safety risk. The mechanical failures of the crankshaft are due of high bending and torsion stress concentration from high cycle and low rotating bending and torsional stress. The Markov Chain was used to model the two states based on the probability of failure due to bending and torsion stress. In most investigations it revealed that bending stress is much serve than torsional stress, therefore the probability criteria for the bending state would be higher compared to the torsion state. A statistical comparison between the developed Markov Chain Model and field data was done to observe the percentage of error. The reliability analysis and prediction was derived and illustrated from the Markov Chain Model were shown in the Weibull probability and cumulative distribution function, hazard rate and reliability curve and the bathtub curve. It can be concluded that Markov Chain Model has the ability to generate near similar data with minimal percentage of error and for a practical application; the proposed model provides a good accuracy in determining the reliability for the crankshaft under mixed mode loading.

  14. Current Human Reliability Analysis Methods Applied to Computerized Procedures

    Ronald L. Boring

    2012-06-01

    Computerized procedures (CPs) are an emerging technology within nuclear power plant control rooms. While CPs have been implemented internationally in advanced control rooms, to date no US nuclear power plant has implemented CPs in its main control room (Fink et al., 2009). Yet, CPs are a reality of new plant builds and are an area of considerable interest to existing plants, which see advantages in terms of enhanced ease of use and easier records management by omitting the need for updating hardcopy procedures. The overall intent of this paper is to provide a characterization of human reliability analysis (HRA) issues for computerized procedures. It is beyond the scope of this document to propose a new HRA approach or to recommend specific methods or refinements to those methods. Rather, this paper serves as a review of current HRA as it may be used for the analysis and review of computerized procedures.

  15. Standardization of domestic human reliability analysis and experience of human reliability analysis in probabilistic safety assessment for NPPs under design

    This paper introduces the background and development activities of domestic standardization of procedure and method for Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) to avoid the intervention of subjectivity by HRA analyst in Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) as possible, and the review of the HRA results for domestic nuclear power plants under design studied by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute. We identify the HRA methods used for PSA for domestic NPPs and discuss the subjectivity of HRA analyst shown in performing a HRA. Also, we introduce the PSA guidelines published in USA and review the HRA results based on them. We propose the system of a standard procedure and method for HRA to be developed

  16. Productivity enhancement and reliability through AutoAnalysis

    Garetto, Anthony; Rademacher, Thomas; Schulz, Kristian

    2015-09-01

    The decreasing size and increasing complexity of photomask features, driven by the push to ever smaller technology nodes, places more and more challenges on the mask house, particularly in terms of yield management and cost reduction. Particularly challenging for mask shops is the inspection, repair and review cycle which requires more time and skill from operators due to the higher number of masks required per technology node and larger nuisance defect counts. While the measurement throughput of the AIMS™ platform has been improved in order to keep pace with these trends, the analysis of aerial images has seen little advancement and remains largely a manual process. This manual analysis of aerial images is time consuming, dependent on the skill level of the operator and significantly contributes to the overall mask manufacturing process flow. AutoAnalysis, the first application available for the FAVOR® platform, offers a solution to these problems by providing fully automated analysis of AIMS™ aerial images. Direct communication with the AIMS™ system allows automated data transfer and analysis parallel to the measurements. User defined report templates allow the relevant data to be output in a manner that can be tailored to various internal needs and support the requests of your customers. Productivity is significantly improved due to the fast analysis, operator time is saved and made available for other tasks and reliability is no longer a concern as the most defective region is always and consistently captured. In this paper the concept and approach of AutoAnalysis will be presented as well as an update to the status of the project. The benefits arising from the use of AutoAnalysis will be discussed in more detail and a study will be performed in order to demonstrate.

  17. Step-stress analysis for predicting dental ceramic reliability

    Borba, Márcia; Cesar, Paulo F.; Griggs, Jason A.; Bona, Álvaro Della

    2013-01-01

    Objective To test the hypothesis that step-stress analysis is effective to predict the reliability of an alumina-based dental ceramic (VITA In-Ceram AL blocks) subjected to a mechanical aging test. Methods Bar-shaped ceramic specimens were fabricated, polished to 1µm finish and divided into 3 groups (n=10): (1) step-stress accelerating test; (2) flexural strength- control; (3) flexural strength- mechanical aging. Specimens from group 1 were tested in an electromagnetic actuator (MTS Evolution) using a three-point flexure fixture (frequency: 2Hz; R=0.1) in 37°C water bath. Each specimen was subjected to an individual stress profile, and the number of cycles to failure was recorded. A cumulative damage model with an inverse power law lifetime-stress relation and Weibull lifetime distribution were used to fit the fatigue data. The data were used to predict the stress level and number of cycles for mechanical aging (group 3). Groups 2 and 3 were tested for three-point flexural strength (σ) in a universal testing machine with 1.0 s in 37°C water. Data were statistically analyzed using Mann-Whitney Rank Sum test. Results Step-stress data analysis showed that the profile most likely to weaken the specimens without causing fracture during aging (95% CI: 0–14% failures) was: 80 MPa stress amplitude and 105 cycles. The median σ values (MPa) for groups 2 (493±54) and 3 (423±103) were statistically different (p=0.009). Significance The aging profile determined by step-stress analysis was effective to reduce alumina ceramic strength as predicted by the reliability estimate, confirming the study hypothesis. PMID:23827018

  18. Reliability and availability requirements analysis for DEMO: fuel cycle system

    The Demonstration Power Plant (DEMO) will be a fusion reactor prototype designed to demonstrate the capability to produce electrical power in a commercially acceptable way. Two of the key elements of the engineering development of the DEMO reactor are the definitions of reliability and availability requirements (or targets). The availability target for a hypothesized Fuel Cycle has been analysed as a test case. The analysis has been done on the basis of the experience gained in operating existing tokamak fusion reactors and developing the ITER design. Plant Breakdown Structure (PBS) and Functional Breakdown Structure (FBS) related to the DEMO Fuel Cycle and correlations between PBS and FBS have been identified. At first, a set of availability targets has been allocated to the various systems on the basis of their operating, protection and safety functions. 75% and 85% of availability has been allocated to the operating functions of fuelling system and tritium plant respectively. 99% of availability has been allocated to the overall systems in executing their safety functions. The chances of the systems to achieve the allocated targets have then been investigated through a Failure Mode and Effect Analysis and Reliability Block Diagram analysis. The following results have been obtained: 1) the target of 75% for the operations of the fuelling system looks reasonable, while the target of 85% for the operations of the whole tritium plant should be reduced to 80%, even though all the tritium plant systems can individually reach quite high availability targets, over 90% - 95%; 2) all the DEMO Fuel Cycle systems can reach the target of 99% in accomplishing their safety functions. (authors)

  19. Reliability analysis on a shell and tube heat exchanger

    Lingeswara, S.; Omar, R.; Mohd Ghazi, T. I.

    2016-06-01

    A shell and tube heat exchanger reliability was done in this study using past history data from a carbon black manufacturing plant. The heat exchanger reliability study is vital in all related industries as inappropriate maintenance and operation of the heat exchanger will lead to major Process Safety Events (PSE) and loss of production. The overall heat exchanger coefficient/effectiveness (Uo) and Mean Time between Failures (MTBF) were analyzed and calculated. The Aspen and down time data was taken from a typical carbon black shell and tube heat exchanger manufacturing plant. As a result of the Uo calculated and analyzed, it was observed that the Uo declined over a period caused by severe fouling and heat exchanger limitation. This limitation also requires further burn out period which leads to loss of production. The MTBF calculated is 649.35 hours which is very low compared to the standard 6000 hours for the good operation of shell and tube heat exchanger. The guidelines on heat exchanger repair, preventive and predictive maintenance was identified and highlighted for better heat exchanger inspection and repair in the future. The fouling of heat exchanger and the production loss will be continuous if proper heat exchanger operation and repair using standard operating procedure is not followed.

  20. Deductive tree analysis for evaluating the reliability of construction operations

    The importance of structural and construction safety is associated with the adverse consequences that may result from a structural failure and a construction accident. One of the most important objectives of any construction team is to minimize and control the risk levels of failure and accident of construction operations, as well as to determine the various critical factors which might lead to the increase of the probability of failure and accident of the operations. There are several uncertainty events and factors that contribute to the failure and accident of construction operations. The factors are associated with random, human-based or system uncertainty. Some of these factors include the level of engineering knowledge and experience, level of workmanship and attitude, level of communication procedures, methods and sequence of construction. Most of these factors are subjective, vague, and imprecisely defined, and therefore, they are expressed in semantic terms rather than mathematical measures. The subjectivity of the factors needs to be incorporated into the reliability estimation processes. The objective of this paper is to present a reliability evaluation methodology for construction operations that considers the effect of the factors and their uncertainties on the estimation of the risk measures for construction operations. The methodology is based on a deductive tree analysis approach which involves identifying a possible condition of the construction system and determining the various events and combination of the factors that contribute to the occurrence of that condition

  1. Probabilistic structural analysis methods for improving Space Shuttle engine reliability

    Boyce, L.

    1989-01-01

    Probabilistic structural analysis methods are particularly useful in the design and analysis of critical structural components and systems that operate in very severe and uncertain environments. These methods have recently found application in space propulsion systems to improve the structural reliability of Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) components. A computer program, NESSUS, based on a deterministic finite-element program and a method of probabilistic analysis (fast probability integration) provides probabilistic structural analysis for selected SSME components. While computationally efficient, it considers both correlated and nonnormal random variables as well as an implicit functional relationship between independent and dependent variables. The program is used to determine the response of a nickel-based superalloy SSME turbopump blade. Results include blade tip displacement statistics due to the variability in blade thickness, modulus of elasticity, Poisson's ratio or density. Modulus of elasticity significantly contributed to blade tip variability while Poisson's ratio did not. Thus, a rational method for choosing parameters to be modeled as random is provided.

  2. Reliability Analysis of a Glacier Lake Warning System Using a Bayesian Net

    Sturny, Rouven A.; Bründl, Michael

    2013-04-01

    Beside structural mitigation measures like avalanche defense structures, dams and galleries, warning and alarm systems have become important measures for dealing with Alpine natural hazards. Integrating them into risk mitigation strategies and comparing their effectiveness with structural measures requires quantification of the reliability of these systems. However, little is known about how reliability of warning systems can be quantified and which methods are suitable for comparing their contribution to risk reduction with that of structural mitigation measures. We present a reliability analysis of a warning system located in Grindelwald, Switzerland. The warning system was built for warning and protecting residents and tourists from glacier outburst floods as consequence of a rapid drain of the glacier lake. We have set up a Bayesian Net (BN, BPN) that allowed for a qualitative and quantitative reliability analysis. The Conditional Probability Tables (CPT) of the BN were determined according to manufacturer's reliability data for each component of the system as well as by assigning weights for specific BN nodes accounting for information flows and decision-making processes of the local safety service. The presented results focus on the two alerting units 'visual acoustic signal' (VAS) and 'alerting of the intervention entities' (AIE). For the summer of 2009, the reliability was determined to be 94 % for the VAS and 83 % for the AEI. The probability of occurrence of a major event was calculated as 0.55 % per day resulting in an overall reliability of 99.967 % for the VAS and 99.906 % for the AEI. We concluded that a failure of the VAS alerting unit would be the consequence of a simultaneous failure of the four probes located in the lake and the gorge. Similarly, we deduced that the AEI would fail either if there were a simultaneous connectivity loss of the mobile and fixed network in Grindelwald, an Internet access loss or a failure of the regional operations

  3. Application of human reliability analysis methodology of second generation

    The human reliability analysis (HRA) is a very important part of probabilistic safety analysis. The main contribution of HRA in nuclear power plants is the identification and characterization of the issues that are brought together for an error occurring in the human tasks that occur under normal operation conditions and those made after abnormal event. Additionally, the analysis of various accidents in history, it was found that the human component has been a contributing factor in the cause. Because of need to understand the forms and probability of human error in the 60 decade begins with the collection of generic data that result in the development of the first generation of HRA methodologies. Subsequently develop methods to include in their models additional performance shaping factors and the interaction between them. So by the 90 mid, comes what is considered the second generation methodologies. Among these is the methodology A Technique for Human Event Analysis (ATHEANA). The application of this method in a generic human failure event, it is interesting because it includes in its modeling commission error, the additional deviations quantification to nominal scenario considered in the accident sequence of probabilistic safety analysis and, for this event the dependency actions evaluation. That is, the generic human failure event was required first independent evaluation of the two related human failure events . So the gathering of the new human error probabilities involves the nominal scenario quantification and cases of significant deviations considered by the potential impact on analyzed human failure events. Like probabilistic safety analysis, with the analysis of the sequences were extracted factors more specific with the highest contribution in the human error probabilities. (Author)

  4. Reliability and sustainability analysis of large panel residential buildings in Sofia, Skopje and Novi Sad

    Folić Radomir

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Large panel residential buildings, dating from second half of 20 Century, are to be found in almost every urban settlement across Europe. Within the context of three case studies of urban blocks in Bulgaria (Mladost - Sofia, Macedonia (Karpos III - Skopje and Serbia (Detelinara - Novi Sad, comparative analysis and evaluation of technical and structural characteristics according to reliability (seismic resistance and fire safety and sustainability (energy efficiency, internal air quality, accessibility criteria has been conducted. Additionally, previous experiences from individual renewal projects are reviewed. Previous experiences and comparative analysis results, could contribute to formulation of wider applicable solutions and development of new urban renewal strategies.

  5. Reliability analysis of repairable system based on GO-FLOW methodology

    A quantitative analysis method named GO-FLOW is introduced to analyze the reliability of system with priority in maintenance and the amount of repairman limited. Approximate formulas model that can be applied to the GO-FLOW calculation is derived for the reliability parameters of repairable assembly. Then the model's feasibility is validated, and its error is analyzed. An example of redundancy pump component is presented, and the result achieved by GO-FLOW is compared with that by GO methodology. The results show that GO-FLOW Methodology can be used for quantitative analysis of this sort of repairable system; The model of GO-FLOW is effective and the algorithm is more convenient compared with GO methodology. (authors)

  6. Basic aspects of stochastic reliability analysis for redundancy systems

    Much confusion has been created by trying to establish common cause failure (CCF) as an extra phenomenon which has to be treated with extra methods in reliability and data analysis. This paper takes another approach which can be roughly described by the statement that dependent failure is the basic phenomenon, while 'independent failure' refers to a special limiting case, namely the perfectly homogeneous population. This approach is motivated by examples demonstrating that common causes do not lead to dependent failure, so far as physical dependencies like shared components are excluded, and that stochastic dependencies are not related to common causes. The possibility to select more than one failure behaviour from an inhomogeneous population is identified as an additional random process which creates stochastic dependence. However, this source of randomness is usually treated in the deterministic limit, which destroys dependence and hence yields incorrect multiple failure frequencies for redundancy structures, thus creating the need for applying corrective CCF models. (author)

  7. Steps of the reliability analysis of NPP-piping

    The various steps of the reliability analysis of nuclear power plant piping are: definition and classification of safety-related leakages, determination of damage mechanism, definition of leak classes, subdivision of the system, definition of relevant elements with respect to the damage mechanisms acting and their population by using general as well as special operating experience and by differentiating in pipe elements and connections, determination of the plants and systems which are relevant for the evaluation of operating experience, determination of leak areas and their frequencies by referring to the leak-related locations, and determination of the frequency for different leak areas in the systems under investigation. Examples are given. 4 figs., 3 tabs

  8. Reliability Analysis Using Dimension Reduction Method with Variable Sampling Points

    This study provides how the Dimension Reduction (DR) method as an efficient technique for reliability analysis can acquire its increased efficiency when it is applied to highly nonlinear problems. In the highly nonlinear engineering systems, 4N+1 (N: number of random variables) sampling is generally recognized to be appropriate. However, there exists uncertainty concerning the standard for judgment of non-linearity of the system as well as possibility of diverse degrees of non-linearity according to each of the random variables. In this regard, this study judged the linearity individually on each random variable after 2N+1 sampling. If high non-linearity appeared, 2 additional sampling was administered on each random variable to apply the DR method. The applications of the proposed sampling to the examples produced the constant results with increased efficiency

  9. Time-dependent reliability analysis and condition assessment of structures

    Ellingwood, B.R. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States)

    1997-01-01

    Structures generally play a passive role in assurance of safety in nuclear plant operation, but are important if the plant is to withstand the effect of extreme environmental or abnormal events. Relative to mechanical and electrical components, structural systems and components would be difficult and costly to replace. While the performance of steel or reinforced concrete structures in service generally has been very good, their strengths may deteriorate during an extended service life as a result of changes brought on by an aggressive environment, excessive loading, or accidental loading. Quantitative tools for condition assessment of aging structures can be developed using time-dependent structural reliability analysis methods. Such methods provide a framework for addressing the uncertainties attendant to aging in the decision process.

  10. Analogical reasoning for reliability analysis based on generic data

    Kozin, Igor O

    1996-10-01

    The paper suggests using the systemic concept 'analogy' for the foundation of an approach to analyze system reliability on the basis of generic data, describing the method of structuring the set that defines analogical models, an approach of transition from the analogical model to a reliability model and a way of obtaining reliability intervals of analogous objects.