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1

National Geophysical Data Center Tsunami Data Archive  

Science.gov (United States)

NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and co-located World Data Center for Geophysics and Marine Geology long-term tsunami data archive provides data and derived products essential for tsunami hazard assessment, forecast and warning, inundation modeling, preparedness, mitigation, education, and research. As a result of NOAA's efforts to strengthen its tsunami activities, the long-term tsunami data archive has grown from less than 5 gigabyte in 2004 to more than 2 terabytes in 2008. The types of data archived for tsunami research and operation activities have also expanded in fulfillment of the P.L. 109-424. The archive now consists of: global historical tsunami, significant earthquake and significant volcanic eruptions database; global tsunami deposits and proxies database; reference database; damage photos; coastal water-level data (i.e. digital tide gauge data and marigrams on microfiche); bottom pressure recorder (BPR) data as collected by Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoys. The tsunami data archive comes from a wide variety of data providers and sources. These include the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers, NOAA National Data Buoy Center, NOAA National Ocean Service, IOC/NOAA International Tsunami Information Center, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, U.S. Geological Survey, tsunami catalogs, reconnaissance reports, journal articles, newspaper articles, internet web pages, and email. NGDC has been active in the management of some of these data for more than 50 years while other data management efforts are more recent. These data are openly available, either directly on-line or by contacting NGDC. All of the NGDC tsunami and related databases are stored in a relational database management system. These data are accessible over the Web as tables, reports, and interactive maps. The maps provide integrated web-based GIS access to individual GIS layers including tsunami sources, tsunami effects, significant earthquakes, significant volcano events, and various spatial reference layers such as topography, population density, and political boundaries. The map service also provides ftp links and hyperlinks to additional hazards information such as the NGDC collection of hazards photos. The NGDC website also provides a Keyhole Markup Language (KML) file, updated nightly, containing tsunami sources and runups

Stroker, K. J.; Dunbar, P. K.; Brocko, R.

2008-12-01

2

Update of the U.S. States and Territories National Tsunami Hazard Assessment: Historical Record and Sources for Waves  

Science.gov (United States)

The NOAA-National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collaborated to conduct the first qualitative United States tsunami hazard assessment, published in 2008 by the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP). Since that time, significant events such as the 2009 Samoa and 2011 Tohoku tsunamis have affected the U.S. and reinforced the importance of considering all of the evidence when conducting an assessment. In addition, there has been progress in tsunami research that reduces some of the earlier uncertainties. In 2011, the National Academies released their assessment of the U.S. Tsunami Program recommending that NOAA and its NTHMP partners, in collaboration with researchers in social and physical sciences, should complete an initial national assessment of tsunami risk and should institute a periodic assessment of the sources of tsunamis that threaten the United States. Therefore, the NTHMP is updating the national tsunami hazard assessment. Although the second assessment will not be a national probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment, areas where there is progress in this methodology will be presented. As a result, a national tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment is not possible at this time, but examples of ongoing work will be presented. This paper looks at the data sources in the first report, including an examination of the NGDC historical tsunami database that resulted in a qualitative assessment based on the distribution of runup heights and the frequency of tsunami runups. Although tsunami deaths are a measure of risk rather than hazard, the known tsunami deaths were compared with the qualitative assessments based on frequency and amplitude. The 2009 American Samoa tsunami resulted in a change for the U.S. Pacific island territories qualitative tsunami hazard assessment from 'Moderate' to 'High'. The NGDC tsunami database contains reported tsunamis and is therefore limited to written records existing for an area. Some of the uncertainty in the completeness of the written record has been reduced by investigating the history of tide gauges in the different regions. The first tsunami hazard assessment also used the USGS National Seismic Hazard Map (NSHM) databases to partially extend the time interval. These databases are primarily meant to assess earthquakes affecting U.S. possessions and do not include all possible seismogenic tsunami sources in the Pacific and Atlantic Basins. However, the databases make it possible to estimate the rate of occurrence of larger magnitude earthquakes that could generate a tsunami. The USGS NSHM databases are based on tectonic models, and paleoseismic and paleotsunami data. These databases are periodically updated with new research. Inclusion of updated information can reduce uncertainties in tsunami sources such as the Cascadia subduction zone and others.

Dunbar, P. K.; Goldfinger, C.

2013-12-01

3

The U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program: Successes in Tsunami Preparedness  

Science.gov (United States)

Formed in 1995 by Congressional Action, the National Tsunami Hazards Mitigation Program (NTHMP) provides the framework for tsunami preparedness activities in the United States. The Program consists of the 28 U.S. coastal states, territories, and commonwealths (STCs), as well as three Federal agencies: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Since its inception, the NTHMP has advanced tsunami preparedness in the United States through accomplishments in many areas of tsunami preparedness: - Coordination and funding of tsunami hazard analysis and preparedness activities in STCs; - Development and execution of a coordinated plan to address education and outreach activities (materials, signage, and guides) within its membership; - Lead the effort to assist communities in meeting National Weather Service (NWS) TsunamiReady guidelines through development of evacuation maps and other planning activities; - Determination of tsunami hazard zones in most highly threatened coastal communities throughout the country by detailed tsunami inundation studies; - Development of a benchmarking procedure for numerical tsunami models to ensure models used in the inundation studies meet consistent, NOAA standards; - Creation of a national tsunami exercise framework to test tsunami warning system response; - Funding community tsunami warning dissemination and reception systems such as sirens and NOAA Weather Radios; and, - Providing guidance to NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers regarding warning dissemination and content. NTHMP activities have advanced the state of preparedness of United States coastal communities, and have helped save lives and property during recent tsunamis. Program successes as well as future plans, including maritime preparedness, are discussed.

Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R. I.

2012-12-01

4

Tsunami!  

Science.gov (United States)

A general introduction to tsunamis including information about the mechanisms of tsunami generation and propagation, the impact of tsunamis on humankind, and the Tsunami Warning System. Sections include information on what tsunami means, how earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and meteorites generate tsunamis, and what happens when a tsunami approaches and encounters land. Also included is information on past and recent tsunami activity, a fact sheet on what to do if threatened by a tsunami, as well as links to the Tsunami Warning System and related sites. Users can also find information on tsunami research centers and projects.

5

United Nations Development Programme: Tsunami Recovery  

Science.gov (United States)

While the tsunami that devastated a substantial portion of South and South East Asia at the end of December 2004 may have fallen off the radar of the mainstream media, there remains a great deal of reconstruction work going on in the region. The United Nations Development Programme continues to assist with efforts throughout the area, and this website the organization has set up provides information about such endeavors. Visitors to the site can peruse the latest news reports and updates by country (such as Somalia, Sri Lanka, and India) or begin by looking at the regional overview section of the site. The site also contains a link to the full coverage area offered by the Crisis Prevention & Recovery unit, which contains recent assessment reports by country.

6

World Data Center / National Geophysical Data Center's Tsunami Data Archive  

Science.gov (United States)

The WDC for Solid Earth Geophysics (including tsunamis) is operated by NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC). NGDC is one of three environmental data centers within the National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service (NESDIS). Operating both World and National Data Centers, WDC/NGDC is now providing the long-term archive, data management, and access to national and global tsunami data for research and mitigation of tsunami hazards. Archive responsibilities include the global historic tsunami event and runup database, the bottom pressure recorder data, and access to event-specific tide-gauge data, as well as other related hazards and bathymetric data and information. The WDC/NGDC Worldwide Tsunami Database includes more than 2,400 events since 2,000 BC and more than 7,200 locations where tsunamis were observed. Times of generating earthquakes, tsunami arrival times, travel times, first motion of the wave, and wave periods are included in the database. The WDC/NGDC Worldwide Significant Earthquake Database includes information for more than 6,600 destructive earthquakes from 2,000 B.C. to the present. In the 1980s, NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) developed deep ocean tsunameters for the early detection, measurement, and real-time reporting of tsunamis in the open ocean. The tsunameters were developed by PMEL's Project DART (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis). A DART system consists of a seafloor bottom pressure recording (BPR) system capable of detecting tsunamis as small as 1 cm, and a moored surface buoy for real-time communications. An acoustic link is used to transmit data from the BPR on the seafloor to the surface buoy. The data are then relayed via a GOES satellite link to ground stations for immediate dissemination to NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers and PMEL. These systems were deployed near regions with a history of tsunami generation, to ensure measurement of the waves as they propagate towards threatened U.S. coastal communities and to acquire data critical to real-time forecasts. Currently, there are eight BPRs located near Alaska, Hawaii, Chili, and in the equatorial Pacific. The WDC/NGDC is now providing access to bottom pressure recorder (BPR) data from 1986 to the present. The BPR database includes pressure and temperature data from the ocean floor. All of the WDC/NGDC tsunami and significant earthquake databases are stored in a relational database management system. These data are accessible over the Web as tables, reports, interactive maps, and custom CD-ROMs.

Dunbar, P. K.; Brantley, K.; Stroker, K.

2005-12-01

7

Tsunamis  

Science.gov (United States)

... of the shoreline. Drowning is the most common cause of death associated with a tsunami. Tsunami waves and the receding water are very ... of any building that has water around it. Tsunami water can cause floors to crack or walls to collapse. Use ...

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Tsunamis  

Science.gov (United States)

Deanne Erdmann and Nancy Moreno of Baylor College of Medicine contributed to BioEd OnlineâÂÂs âÂÂHot Topics in Biologyâ with this website on tsunamis. This online article provides a brief overview of tsunamis, explaining what exactly a tsunami is and the impact they have had on the world. Another valuable part of this website is the supplemental information, this includes a slideshow available for download, links to recent news stories about tsunamis, and a list of great additional online resources from places such as Discovery, and NASA.

Erdmann, Deanne; Moreno, Nancy

2008-07-09

9

Impact of the tsunami response on local and national capacities  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The largest ever evaluation of an international humanitarian response found that most lives were saved by affected and neighbouring communities in the immediate aftermath of the December 2004 tsunami. When the international community bypassed or appropriated local and national response, the impact was inefficient in terms of cost, effort and time.

Arjuna Parakrama

2007-07-01

10

Tsunamis  

Science.gov (United States)

... Clinical Guidance for Carbon Monoxide Poisoning CO Poisoning: Flyers and Educational Materials Clean Up Fact Sheet: Clean ... and Health Concerns Frequently Asked Questions (NOAA) Tsunamis (EPA) Information for Specific Groups CDC's Traveler’s Health website ...

11

Tsunami  

Science.gov (United States)

This lesson plan is part of the DiscoverySchool.com lesson plan library for grades 6-8. It focuses on tsunamis and the destruction they can cause. Students design experiments to view the two types of tsunamis (fjord and ocean) and view the different wave patterns associated with each. Included are objectives, materials, procedures, discussion questions, evaluation ideas, and vocabulary. There are videos available to order which complement this lesson, and links to teaching tools for making custom quizzes, worksheets, puzzles and lesson plans.

Hurstcalderone, Susan

12

Tsunami Database  

Science.gov (United States)

The Tsunami Database is a global digital database containing information on more than 2000 tsunamis maintained by the National Geophysical Data Center. This is an interactive site; the user is asked to enter search parameters such as date, latitude and longitude, cause of the tsunami - earthquake, landslide, volcano, or all combined - magnitude, and death. Information is then generated on tsunamis that match that data. The National Geophysical Data Center also maintains an historic slide set collection of tsunami damage.

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New Activities of the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, Mapping and Modeling Subcommittee  

Science.gov (United States)

The U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) is comprised of representatives from coastal states and federal agencies who, under the guidance of NOAA, work together to develop protocols and products to help communities prepare for and mitigate tsunami hazards. Within the NTHMP are several subcommittees responsible for complimentary aspects of tsunami assessment, mitigation, education, warning, and response. The Mapping and Modeling Subcommittee (MMS) is comprised of state and federal scientists who specialize in tsunami source characterization, numerical tsunami modeling, inundation map production, and warning forecasting. Until September 2012, much of the work of the MMS was authorized through the Tsunami Warning and Education Act, an Act that has since expired but the spirit of which is being adhered to in parallel with reauthorization efforts. Over the past several years, the MMS has developed guidance and best practices for states and territories to produce accurate and consistent tsunami inundation maps for community level evacuation planning, and has conducted benchmarking of numerical inundation models. Recent tsunami events have highlighted the need for other types of tsunami hazard analyses and products for improving evacuation planning, vertical evacuation, maritime planning, land-use planning, building construction, and warning forecasts. As the program responsible for producing accurate and consistent tsunami products nationally, the NTHMP-MMS is initiating a multi-year plan to accomplish the following: 1) Create and build on existing demonstration projects that explore new tsunami hazard analysis techniques and products, such as maps identifying areas of strong currents and potential damage within harbors as well as probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for land-use planning. 2) Develop benchmarks for validating new numerical modeling techniques related to current velocities and landslide sources. 3) Generate guidance and protocols for the production and use of new tsunami hazard analysis products. 4) Identify multistate collaborations and funding partners interested in these new products. Application of these new products will improve the overall safety and resilience of coastal communities exposed to tsunami hazards.

Wilson, R. I.; Eble, M. C.

2013-12-01

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A communication model for interlinking national tsunami early warning systems  

Science.gov (United States)

The integration of national Tsunami Early Earning Systems (TEWS) to ocean-wide networks is a main objective of the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanic Commission (IOC) tsunami programme. The intention is to interlink national TEWSs leveraging warning communication during hazards. For this purpose a communication model has been developed enabling an efficient message exchange within a centre-to-centre (C2C) communication in a system-of-systems environment. The model, designed to be robust and simple, is based on existing interoperability standards from the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and the Organization of the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). For the exchange of tsunami warning bulletins the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) is used. It supports geospatial referencing by addressing geocoded Points of Interests (POIs), Areas of Interest (AOIs) and Coastal Forecast Zones (CFZs). Moreover it supports hazard classification by standardized criticality parameters and the transmission of attachments, e.g. situation maps. The communication model also supports the exchange of sensor observations and measurements such as sea level data or earthquake parameters. For this purpose markup languages of the Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) suite are used. Both communication products, warning bulletins and sensor observations, are embedded in an envelope providing addressing and routing information using the Emergency Data Exchange Language Distribution Element (EDXL-DE). The communication model has been implemented in a first pilot based on Message Oriented Middleware (MOM). Implementation, test and validation was started in the European research project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) and is continued successively in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC). Stimulated by the concepts and results of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and based on its sensor integration platform forming the upstream information flow, the DEWS project focused on the improvement of downstream capacities of warning centres especially by improving information logistics for effective and targeted warning message aggregation for a multilingual environment. Based on these results, TRIDEC continues this task focusing on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management. The addressed challenges include the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources with accelerated generation of large volumes of data.

Lendholt, M.; Hammitzsch, M.; Esbri Palomares, M. A.

2012-04-01

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Tsunami Modeling from Submarine Landslides  

Science.gov (United States)

This paper describes a kinematic model that computes tsunamis generated from submarine landslides. The model is based on bathymetric (ocean floor modeling) data and historical tsunami data. The papers' main focus is the application of the model to the 1741 Oshima-Oshima Tsunami in Japan and landslide events around the Hawaiian Islands. This paper was presented at the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program Review and International Tsunami Symposium in Seattle, Washington on August 10, 2001.

Satake, Kenji; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

16

Application of a Tsunami Warning Message Metric to refine NOAA NWS Tsunami Warning Messages  

Science.gov (United States)

In 2010, the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) funded a three year project to integrate social science into their Tsunami Program. One of three primary requirements of the grant was to make improvements to tsunami warning messages of the NWS' two Tsunami Warning Centers- the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) in Palmer, Alaska and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) in Ewa Beach, Hawaii. We conducted focus group meetings with a purposive sample of local, state and Federal stakeholders and emergency managers in six states (AK, WA, OR, CA, HI and NC) and two US Territories (US Virgin Islands and American Samoa) to qualitatively asses information needs in tsunami warning messages using WCATWC tsunami messages for the March 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami event. We also reviewed research literature on behavioral response to warnings to develop a tsunami warning message metric that could be used to guide revisions to tsunami warning messages of both warning centers. The message metric is divided into categories of Message Content, Style, Order and Formatting and Receiver Characteristics. A message is evaluated by cross-referencing the message with the operational definitions of metric factors. Findings are then used to guide revisions of the message until the characteristics of each factor are met. Using findings from this project and findings from a parallel NWS Warning Tiger Team study led by T. Nicolini, the WCATWC implemented the first of two phases of revisions to their warning messages in November 2012. A second phase of additional changes, which will fully implement the redesign of messages based on the metric, is in progress. The resulting messages will reflect current state-of-the-art knowledge on warning message effectiveness. Here we present the message metric; evidence-based rational for message factors; and examples of previous, existing and proposed messages.

Gregg, C. E.; Johnston, D.; Sorensen, J.; Whitmore, P.

2013-12-01

17

Assessment of human immediate response capability related to tsunami threats in Indonesia at a sub-national scale  

Science.gov (United States)

Human immediate response is contextualized into different time compartments reflecting the tsunami early warning chain. Based on the different time compartments the available response time and evacuation time is quantified. The latter incorporates accessibility of safe areas determined by a hazard assessment, as well as environmental and demographic impacts on evacuation speed properties assessed using a Cost Distance Weighting GIS approach. Approximately 4.35 million Indonesians live in tsunami endangered areas on the southern coasts of Sumatra, Java and Bali and have between 20 and 150 min to reach a tsunami-safe area. Most endangered areas feature longer estimated-evacuation times and hence the population possesses a weak immediate response capability leaving them more vulnerable to being directly impacted by a tsunami. At a sub-national scale these hotspots were identified and include: the Mentawai islands off the Sumatra coast, various sub-districts on Sumatra and west and east Java. Based on the presented approach a temporal dynamic estimation of casualties and displacements as a function of available response time is obtained for the entire coastal area. As an example, a worst case tsunami scenario for Kuta (Bali) results in casualties of 25 000 with an optimal response time (direct evacuation when receiving a tsunami warning) and 120 000 for minimal response time (no evacuation). The estimated casualties correspond well to observed/reported values and overall model uncertainty is low with a standard error of 5%. The results obtained allow for prioritization of intervention measures such as early warning chain, evacuation and contingency planning, awareness and preparedness strategies down to a sub-district level and can be used in tsunami early warning decision support.

Post, J.; Wegscheider, S.; Mück, M.; Zosseder, K.; Kiefl, R.; Steinmetz, T.; Strunz, G.

2009-07-01

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A User's Guide to the Tsunami Datasets at NOAA's National Data Buoy Center  

Science.gov (United States)

The National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) has maintained and operated the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) tsunameter network since 2003. The tsunameters employ the NOAA-developed Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) technology. The technology measures the pressure and temperature every 15 seconds on the ocean floor and transforms them into equivalent water-column height observations. A complex series of subsampled observations are transmitted acoustically in real-time to a moored buoy or marine autonomous vehicle (MAV) at the ocean surface. The surface platform uses its satellite communications to relay the observations to NDBC. NDBC places the observations onto the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) for relay to NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers (TWC) in Hawai'i and Alaska and to the international community. It takes less than three minutes to speed the observations from the ocean floor to the TWCs. NDBC can retrieve limited amounts of the 15-s measurements from the instrumentation on the ocean floor using the technology's two-way communications. NDBC recovers the full resolution 15-s measurements about every 2 years and forwards the datasets and metadata to the National Geophysical Data Center for permanent archive. Meanwhile, NDBC retains the real-time observations on its website. The type of real-time observation depends on the operating mode of the tsunameter. NDBC provides the observations in a variety of traditional and innovative methods and formats that include descriptors of the operating mode. Datasets, organized by station, are available from the NDBC website as text files and from the NDBC THREDDS server in netCDF format. The website provides alerts and lists of events that allow users to focus on the information relevant for tsunami hazard analysis. In addition, NDBC developed a basic web service to query station information and observations to support the Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis (SIFT) model. NDBC and NOAA's Integrated Ocean Observing System have fielded the innovative Sensor Observation Service (SOS) that allows users access to observations by station, or groups of stations that have been organized into Features of Interest, such as the 2011 Honshu Tsunami. The user can elect to receive the SOS observations in several different formats, such as Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) or delimiter-separated values. Recently, NDBC's Coastal and Offshore Buoys provided meteorological observations used in analyzing possible meteotsunamis on the U.S. East Coast. However, many of these observations are some distance away from the tsunameters. In a demonstration project, NDBC has added sensors to a tsunameter's surface buoy and a MAV to support program requirements for meteorological observations. All these observations are available from NDBC's website in text files, netCDF, and SOS. To aid users in obtaining information relevant to their applications, the presentation documents, in detail, the characteristics of the different types of real-time observations and the availability and organization of the resulting datasets at NDBC .

Bouchard, R. H.; O'Neil, K.; Grissom, K.; Garcia, M.; Bernard, L. J.; Kern, K. J.

2013-12-01

19

In Brief: Tsunami preparedness progress  

Science.gov (United States)

Since the devastating Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, the United States has made progress in several areas related to detecting and forecasting tsunamis, including the expansion of a sensor network and improvements to hazard and evacuation maps. However, many U.S. coastal communities “still face challenges in responding to a tsunami that arrives in less than an hour after the triggering event,” according to a U.S. National Research Council report released on 16 September. The report, Tsunami Warning and Preparedness: An Assessment of the U.S. Tsunami Program and the Nation's Preparedness Efforts, recommends that the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and its National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program partners work to complete an initial assessment of tsunami risk, among other measures. The report also indicates research efforts to improve tsunami education, preparation, and detection. The report is available at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12628.

Showstack, Randy

2010-09-01

20

Quality of life, vulnerability and resilience: a qualitative study of the tsunami impact on the affected population of Sri Lanka / Qualità della vita, vulnerabilità e resilienza: uno studio qualitativo dell'impatto dello tsunami sulla popolazione colpita dello Sri Lanka  

Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

Full Text Available SciELO Public Health | Language: English Abstract in english AIM: This qualitative study is aimed at analysing the impact of the 2004 tsunami on the Quality of Life of the Sri Lankan population. It focused on the factors that have contributed to an increase in the people's susceptibility to the impact of hazards - their vulnerability - as well as of the natur [...] al ability to cope of the populations affected - their resilience. METHODOLOGY: The study is based on the conduction of 10 Focus Group discussions and 18 In-depth Interviews, then analysed through a qualitative analysis software. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The analysis shows that each factor involved in the interplay among the different processes that produced the changes in the affected people's quality of life is at the same time a damaged asset, a vulnerability factor and a resource to draw upon for coping. The complexity of this situation opens further speculation as to how disasters and relief interventions influence relationships and dynamics in society. This should thus be further investigated, together with the effects of individual and group trauma on society.

Alice Josephine, Fauci; Manila, Bonciani; Raniero, Guerra.

 
 
 
 
21

Post Fukushima tsunami simulations for Malaysian coasts  

Science.gov (United States)

The recent recurrences of mega tsunamis in the Asian region have rekindled concern regarding potential tsunamis that could inflict severe damage to affected coastal facilities and communities. The 11 March 2011 Fukushima tsunami that crippled nuclear power plants in Northern Japan has further raised the level of caution. The recent discovery of petroleum reserves in the coastal water surrounding Malaysia further ignites the concern regarding tsunami hazards to petroleum facilities located along affected coasts. Working in a group, federal government agencies seek to understand the dynamics of tsunami and their impacts under the coordination of the Malaysian National Centre for Tsunami Research, Malaysian Meteorological Department. Knowledge regarding the generation, propagation and runup of tsunami would provide the scientific basis to address safety issues. An in-house tsunami simulation models known as TUNA has been developed by the authors to assess tsunami hazards along affected beaches so that mitigation measures could be put in place. Capacity building on tsunami simulation plays a critical role in the development of tsunami resilience. This paper aims to first provide a simple introduction to tsunami simulation towards the achievement of tsunami simulation capacity building. The paper will also present several scenarios of tsunami dangers along affected Malaysia coastal regions via TUNA simulations to highlight tsunami threats. The choice of tsunami generation parameters reflects the concern following the Fukushima tsunami.

Koh, Hock Lye; Teh, Su Yean; Abas, Mohd Rosaidi Che

2014-10-01

22

Local, national and imported foods: a qualitative study.  

Science.gov (United States)

The UK government is currently attempting to encourage consumers to buy more locally produced food. It is hoped that this will provide economic, environmental and social benefits to local areas, leading to more sustainable patterns of consumption. This qualitative study looks at the views and behaviour of consumers towards local foods with a particular focus on the barriers that prevent greater uptake of local produce. In total, four focus groups (n=33) were conducted. Content analysis identified six relevant themes in relation to local, national and imported foods. These were cost, lifestyle, food quality, consumer ethnocentrism, choice and farmers. Overall, although participants reported buying few local products currently, there was widespread enthusiasm across socio-economic groups for local foods, with participants perceiving them as being of a higher quality than imported foods. They also generally endorsed the idea of supporting local farmers and their own national economy. The main barriers preventing participants from buying more local products were price and inconvenience. The results are discussed in relation to developing future strategies for encouraging people to buy more local food products. PMID:17368868

Chambers, Stephanie; Lobb, Alexandra; Butler, Laurie; Harvey, Kate; Traill, W Bruce

2007-07-01

23

Tsunami Forecasting: The 10 August 2009 Andaman tsunami Demonstrates Progress  

Science.gov (United States)

The 10 August 2009 Andaman non-destructive tsunami in the Indian Ocean demonstrated advances in creating a tsunami-resilient global society. Following the Indian Ocean tsunami on 26 December 2004, scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Center for Tsunami Research (NCTR) at the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) developed an interface for its validated and verified tsunami numerical model Method of Splitting Tsunamis (MOST). MOST has been benchmarked substantially through analytical solutions, experimental results and field measurements (Synolakis et al., 2008). MOST and its interface the Community Model Interface for Tsunami (ComMIT) are distributed through extensive capacity-building sessions for the Indian Ocean nations using UNESCO/Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), AusAID, and USAID funding. Over one hundred-sixty scientists have been trained in tsunami inundation mapping, leading to the first generation of inundation models for many Indian Ocean shorelines. During the 10 August 2009 Andaman tsunami event, NCTR scientists exercised the forecast system in research mode using the first generation inundation models developed during ComMIT trainings. Assimilating key data from a Kingdom of Thailand tsunameter, coastal tsunami amplitudes were predicted in Indonesia, Thailand, and India coastlines, before the first tsunami arrival, using models developed by ComMIT trainees. Since its first test in 2003, one more time, NCTR's forecasting methodology proved the effectiveness of operational tsunami forecasting using real-time deep-ocean data assimilated into forecast models (Wei et al., 2008 and Titov, 2009). The 2009 Andaman tsunami demonstrated that operational tsunami forecasting tools are now available and coupled with inundation mapping tools can be effective and can reduce false alarms. International collaboration is required to fully utilize this technology's potential. Enhanced educational efforts both at government and community levels are necessary to further reduce risk. References Synolakis, C.E., et al. (2008), Validation and verification of tsunami numerical models, Pure and Applied Geophysics. 165(11-12), 2197-2228. Titov, V.V. (2009), Chapter 12: Tsunami forecasting, The SEA, Tsunamis, vol. 15, Harvard University Press, p. 371-400. Wei, Y., et al. (2008), Real-time experimental forecast of the Peruvian tsunami of August 2007 for U.S. coastlines, Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L04609.

Titov, Vasily; Moore, Christopher; Uslu, Burak; Kanoglu, Utku

2010-05-01

24

Tsunami flooding  

Science.gov (United States)

Panel 5 focused on tsunami flooding with an emphasis on Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) as derived from its counterpart, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) that determines seismic ground-motion hazards. The Panel reviewed current practices in PTHA and determined the viability of extending the analysis to extreme design probabilities (i.e., 10-4 to 10-6). In addition to earthquake sources for tsunamis, PTHA for extreme events necessitates the inclusion of tsunamis generated by submarine landslides, and treatment of the large attendant uncertainty in source characterization and recurrence rates. Tsunamis can be caused by local and distant earthquakes, landslides, volcanism, and asteroid/meteorite impacts. Coastal flooding caused by storm surges and seiches is covered in Panel 7. Tsunamis directly tied to earthquakes, the similarities with (and path forward offered by) the PSHA approach for PTHA, and especially submarine landslide tsunamis were a particular focus of Panel 5.

Geist, Eric; Jones, Henry; McBride, Mark; Fedors, Randy

2013-01-01

25

Tsunami assignment  

Science.gov (United States)

Lectures and previous brief assignments dealt with plate tectonics, earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunamis. For the assignment, students read several articles describing potential sources for tsunamis on the east coast, including volcanic eruptions on the Canary Islands, underwater landslides off the shelf, and earthquakes. Their task is to summarize these potential sources, evaluate the risk of a tsunami on the east coast, and compare them with previously discussed risks for the west coast and Hawaii.

Neumann, Klaus

26

Tsunamis in the Caribbean  

Science.gov (United States)

The December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami increased global awareness to the destruction hazard posed by earthquakes and tsunamis around the world. The United States government has committed 37.5 million dollars toward the upgrade of earthquake and tsunami monitoring systems in the Caribbean region. Several historical earthquakes have caused considerable damage throughout the Caribbean, many causing tsunamis. The US Geological Survey is using a large part of this money to enhance capabilities for rapid detection and notification of earthquakes in the Caribbean in an attempt to warn the millions living in this area of possible tsunamis. The USGS is working with the Puerto Rico Seismic Network, the Seismological Research Unit at the University of West Indies, eight other host countries, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). These groups are in the process of installing or upgrading seismic monitoring sites in the earthquake zones of the region. NOAA is also installing four Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) buoys in support of a Caribbean-wide tsunami warning system. Planned seismic stations are located in Antigua/Barbuda, Barbados, Cuba (U.S. Naval Base at Guantanamo Bay), the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Honduras, Panama, Turks and Caicos, and Grenada. Satellite telemetry will transmit data from these sites to NEIC, Golden, CO, where the data will be redistributed to NOAA, the University of Puerto Rico and the University of the West Indies, the IRIS Data Management Center and other agencies. The development of seismic monitoring operations began on January 9, 2006. This will improve seismic monitoring capabilities in the Caribbean and Central America, provide better real time data for global monitoring research and assessment activities, and improve understanding of historical tsunamis and their effects on the Caribbean.

Farwell, J.; Kelly, A.; Mooney, W. D.

2006-12-01

27

Tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In the framework of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS the assessment of tsunami risk is an essential part of the overall activities. The scientific and technical approach for the tsunami risk assessment has been developed and the results are implemented in the national Indonesian Tsunami Warning Centre and are provided to the national and regional disaster management and spatial planning institutions in Indonesia.

The paper explains the underlying concepts and applied methods and shows some of the results achieved in the GITEWS project (Rudloff et al., 2009. The tsunami risk assessment has been performed at an overview scale at sub-national level covering the coastal areas of southern Sumatra, Java and Bali and also on a detailed scale in three pilot areas. The results are provided as thematic maps and GIS information layers for the national and regional planning institutions. From the analyses key parameters of tsunami risk are derived, which are integrated and stored in the decision support system of the national Indonesian Early Warning Centre. Moreover, technical descriptions and guidelines were elaborated to explain the developed approach, to allow future updates of the results and the further development of the methodologies, and to enable the local authorities to conduct tsunami risk assessment by using their own resources.

G. Strunz

2011-01-01

28

Tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia  

Science.gov (United States)

In the framework of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) the assessment of tsunami risk is an essential part of the overall activities. The scientific and technical approach for the tsunami risk assessment has been developed and the results are implemented in the national Indonesian Tsunami Warning Centre and are provided to the national and regional disaster management and spatial planning institutions in Indonesia. The paper explains the underlying concepts and applied methods and shows some of the results achieved in the GITEWS project (Rudloff et al., 2009). The tsunami risk assessment has been performed at an overview scale at sub-national level covering the coastal areas of southern Sumatra, Java and Bali and also on a detailed scale in three pilot areas. The results are provided as thematic maps and GIS information layers for the national and regional planning institutions. From the analyses key parameters of tsunami risk are derived, which are integrated and stored in the decision support system of the national Indonesian Early Warning Centre. Moreover, technical descriptions and guidelines were elaborated to explain the developed approach, to allow future updates of the results and the further development of the methodologies, and to enable the local authorities to conduct tsunami risk assessment by using their own resources.

Strunz, G.; Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Mück, M.; Riedlinger, T.; Mehl, H.; Dech, S.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.; Harjono, H.; Anwar, H. Z.; Sumaryono; Khomarudin, R. M.; Muhari, A.

2011-01-01

29

The effect analysis of 1741 Oshima-Oshima tsunami in the West Coast of Japan to Korea  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

It is very difficult to determine and assessment for tsunami hazard. For determining a tsunami risk for NPP site, a development of tsunami hazard is one of the most important. Through the tsunami hazard analysis, a tsunami return period can be determined. For the performing a tsunami hazard analysis, empirical method and numerical method should be needed. Kim et al, already developed tsunami hazard for east coast of Korea for the calculation of tsunami risk of nuclear power plant. In the case of tsunami hazard analysis, a development of tsunami catalog should be performed. In the previous research of Kim et al, the maximum wave height was assumed by the author's decision based on historical record in the annals of Chosun dynasty for evaluating the tsunami catalog. Therefore, in this study, a literature survey was performed for a quantitative measure of historical tsunami record transform to qualitative tsunami wave height for the evaluation of tsunami catalog. In this study, the 1741 tsunami was determined by using a literature review for the evaluation of tsunami hazard. The 1741 tsunami reveals a same tsunami between the historical records in Korea and Japan. The tsunami source of 1741 tsunami was not an earthquake and volcanic. Using the numerical analysis, the wave height of 1741 tsunami can be determined qualitatively

30

The effect analysis of 1741 Oshima-Oshima tsunami in the West Coast of Japan to Korea  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

It is very difficult to determine and assessment for tsunami hazard. For determining a tsunami risk for NPP site, a development of tsunami hazard is one of the most important. Through the tsunami hazard analysis, a tsunami return period can be determined. For the performing a tsunami hazard analysis, empirical method and numerical method should be needed. Kim et al, already developed tsunami hazard for east coast of Korea for the calculation of tsunami risk of nuclear power plant. In the case of tsunami hazard analysis, a development of tsunami catalog should be performed. In the previous research of Kim et al, the maximum wave height was assumed by the author's decision based on historical record in the annals of Chosun dynasty for evaluating the tsunami catalog. Therefore, in this study, a literature survey was performed for a quantitative measure of historical tsunami record transform to qualitative tsunami wave height for the evaluation of tsunami catalog. In this study, the 1741 tsunami was determined by using a literature review for the evaluation of tsunami hazard. The 1741 tsunami reveals a same tsunami between the historical records in Korea and Japan. The tsunami source of 1741 tsunami was not an earthquake and volcanic. Using the numerical analysis, the wave height of 1741 tsunami can be determined qualitatively.

Kim, Minkyu; Rhee, Hyunme; Choi, Inkil [Korea Atomic Energy Research institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2013-05-15

31

Tsunami Mystery  

Science.gov (United States)

This radio broadcast explores some ideas about the cause of a 1946 tsunami which swept from Alaska through the Pacific and killed more than 150 people. The tsunami was one of the worst of the 20th Century. Scientists today still cannot agree on just what caused it. They think it was an earthquake, an undersea landslide, or possibly both. The answer may change how scientists study tsunamis and how people prepare for them. The clip is 6 minutes and 38 seconds in length.

32

Tsunamis: Are We Underestimating the Risk?  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The horrific December 26, 2004, Indian Ocean tsunami, which killed over 230,000 people and displaced 1.7 million across 14 countries, stimulated governments of the world into addressing tsunami hazards. Many Indian Ocean nations did not even recognize the word "tsunami," and none had tsunami preparedness programs in place. Ignorance of the natural signs of a tsunami's presence led to inappropriate actions and decisions by nations, population centers, and tourist destinations. The world's response to this terrible natural disaster was an unprecedented $13.5 billion in international aid, including $5.5 billion from the general public in developed nations. The 2004 tsunami, one of the top 10 deadliest natural disasters the world has recorded, will probably be best remembered for the global outpouring of help to the innocent victims of this tragedy.

Eddie Bernard

2012-06-01

33

Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Pilot Study  

Science.gov (United States)

The results of a pilot study to assess the risk from tsunamis for the Seaside-Gearhart, Oregon region will be presented. To determine the risk from tsunamis, it is first necessary to establish the hazard or probability that a tsunami of a particular magnitude will occur within a certain period of time. Tsunami inundation maps that provide 100-year and 500-year probabilistic tsunami wave height contours for the Seaside-Gearhart, Oregon, region were developed as part of an interagency Tsunami Pilot Study(1). These maps provided the probability of the tsunami hazard. The next step in determining risk is to determine the vulnerability or degree of loss resulting from the occurrence of tsunamis due to exposure and fragility. The tsunami vulnerability assessment methodology used in this study was developed by M. Papathoma and others(2). This model incorporates multiple factors (e.g. parameters related to the natural and built environments and socio-demographics) that contribute to tsunami vulnerability. Data provided with FEMA's HAZUS loss estimation software and Clatsop County, Oregon, tax assessment data were used as input to the model. The results, presented within a geographic information system, reveal the percentage of buildings in need of reinforcement and the population density in different inundation depth zones. These results can be used for tsunami mitigation, local planning, and for determining post-tsunami disaster response by emergency services. (1)Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group, Seaside, Oregon Tsunami Pilot Study--Modernization of FEMA Flood Hazard Maps, Joint NOAA/USGS/FEMA Special Report, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2006, Final Draft. (2)Papathoma, M., D. Dominey-Howes, D.,Y. Zong, D. Smith, Assessing Tsunami Vulnerability, an example from Herakleio, Crete, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 3, 2003, p. 377-389.

Dunbar, P. K.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Varner, J.

2006-12-01

34

Impact of Qualitative Components on Economic Growth of Nations  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available According to theory, innovative activity gives a chance to increase a competitiveness and economic growth of nation. The purpose of this paper is validation of that assumption using the latest data available for EU countries. Data set of indicators include: global innovation index, (GII, European Summary Innovative Index (SII, Ranking of Competitiveness of Nations (in a form of summary as well as subsidiary data and set of macro economy data (GDP, labor productivity, export, export of high-tech, R&D expenditure as [as % of GDP] etc as measures of economic growth. Various regression models: liner, curvilinear, planar or spatial with one or two dependent variables will be calculated and explained. In addition the appropriate 2 D and 3 D-graphs will be used and presented to strengthen verbal arguments and explanation. The main result of this paper is relationship between innovative activity, competitive ability and growth measured as GDP per capita. Such relationship is shown as fairy good linear span of countries. Only two of them: Luxemburg and Norway due to higher than average growth value are outliers. The valuable outcome of this paper is classification of nation into groups: highly innovative- highly competitive, highly competitive-non innovative, highly innovative- non competitive and non innovative – non competitive. The last group of nations fall into trap of low competitiveness.

Romuald I. Zalewski

2011-06-01

35

A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Indonesia  

Science.gov (United States)

We present the first national probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment considers tsunami generated from near-field earthquakes sources around Indonesia as well as regional and far-field sources, to define the tsunami hazard at the coastline. The PTHA methodology is based on the established stochastic event-based approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted for tsunami. The earthquake source information is primarily based on the recent Indonesian National Seismic Hazard Map and included a consensus-workshop with Indonesia's leading tsunami and earthquake scientists to finalize the seismic source models and logic trees to include epistemic uncertainty. Results are presented in the form of tsunami hazard maps showing the expected tsunami height at the coast for a given return period, and also as tsunami probability maps, showing the probability of exceeding a tsunami height of 0.5m and 3.0m at the coast. These heights define the thresholds for different tsunami warning levels in the Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (Ina-TEWS). The results show that for short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, the islands of Nias and Mentawai. For longer return periods (>500 years), the tsunami hazard in Eastern Indonesia (north Papua, north Sulawesi) is nearly as high as that along the Sunda Arc. A sensitivity analysis of input parameters is conducted by sampling branches of the logic tree using a monte-carlo approach to constrain the relative importance of each input parameter. The results from this assessment can be used to underpin evidence-based decision making by disaster managers to prioritize tsunami mitigation, such as developing detailed inundation simulations for evacuation planning.

Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Koetapangwa, B.; Anugrah, S.; Thio, H. K.

2012-12-01

36

What Causes Tsunamis?  

Science.gov (United States)

On December 26, 2004, a disastrous tsunami struck many parts of South Asia. The scope of this disaster has resulted in an outpouring of aid throughout the world and brought attention to the science of tsunamis. "Tsunami" means "harbor wave" in Japanese, and the Japanese have a long history of tsunamis. The word "tsunami" brings to mind one…

Mogil, H. Michael

2005-01-01

37

Recent and Historical Tsunami Events and Relevant Data  

Science.gov (United States)

... all U.S. interests in the Pacific outside the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center area of responsibility, most countries in the Pacific and around its rim. NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers National Tsunami Warning Center US mainland, Canada, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands ( ...

38

Indian Ocean Tsunami Disaster in Asia, 2004  

Science.gov (United States)

The satellite images of the Tsunami affected areas in this web page were acquired by the Centre for Remote Imaging, Sensing and Processing at the National University of Singapore. They show the effects of the tsunamis on the affected areas in Indonesia, Thailand and island of India.

Centre for Remote Imaging, Sensing, and Processing, National University of Singapore

39

Tsunami lung.  

Science.gov (United States)

We encountered three cases of lung disorders caused by drowning in the recent large tsunami that struck following the Great East Japan Earthquake. All three were females, and two of them were old elderly. All segments of both lungs were involved in all the three patients, necessitating ICU admission and endotracheal intubation and mechanical ventilation. All three died within 3 weeks. In at least two cases, misswallowing of oil was suspected from the features noted at the time of the detection. Sputum culture for bacteria yielded isolation of Stenotrophomonas maltophilia, Legionella pneumophila, Burkholderia cepacia, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The cause of tsunami lung may be a combination of chemical induced pneumonia and bacterial pneumonia. PMID:22057370

Inoue, Yoshihiro; Fujino, Yasuhisa; Onodera, Makoto; Kikuchi, Satoshi; Shozushima, Tatsuyori; Ogino, Nobuyoshi; Mori, Kiyoshi; Oikawa, Hirotaka; Koeda, Yorihiko; Ueda, Hironobu; Takahashi, Tomohiro; Terui, Katsutoshi; Nakadate, Toshihide; Aoki, Hidehiko; Endo, Shigeatsu

2012-04-01

40

The Puerto Rico Tsunami Program after the 2004 Tsunami: Hazard and Vulnerability Assessment, Public Outreach and the Tsunami-Ready Program for Coastal Towns  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Prior to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico had implemented the Puerto Rico Tsunami Warning and Mitigation Program, with a grant from the USA’s FEMA. This program ended in 2003. For several years we had asked NOAA for Puerto Rico to be included in the in the USA National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, to no avail. But right after the Sumatra tsunami we were asked to join. This resulted in the complete revision of the (local) tsunami flood maps finalized in...

Mercado Irizarry, Aurelio

2014-01-01

 
 
 
 
41

A Robust Tsunami Deposit Database For California  

Science.gov (United States)

The California Geological Survey (CGS) has partnered with Humboldt State University (HSU) to produce a robust statewide tsunami deposit database to facilitate the evaluation of tsunami hazard products for both emergency response and land-use planning and development. The California tsunami deposit database attributes compliment and expand on existing tsunami deposit databases from the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) (Global), the USGS (Cascadia Subduction Zone), and the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI) (adjacent state). Whereas the existing NGDC and USGS databases focus on references or individual tsunami layers, this new State-maintained database concentrates on the location and contents of individual cores/trenches that sample tsunami deposits, including laboratory tests to evaluate sample grain-size, geochemistry, microfossils, and age-dating results. The first generation of the database is completed and includes 94 cores from six studies in northern California, at the southern end of the Cascadia Subduction Zone. A second generation of the database will include recently collected tsunami deposit information for the rest of California. These data provide an important observational benchmark for evaluating the results of tsunami inundation modeling. CGS is collaborating with and sharing the database entry form with other states to encourage its continued development beyond California's coastline so that tsunami deposits can be more easily evaluated on a regional basis, a recommendation of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. This database is being used to help CGS in the development and validation of updates to their existing inundation maps for emergency planning, and probabilistic tsunami hazard analyses (PTHA) of value to local land-use planning and coastal development.

Wilson, R. I.; Hemphill-Haley, E.; Admire, A. R.

2012-12-01

42

Waves of Destruction: Tsunamis  

Science.gov (United States)

Web companion to an episode of the PBS/WNET television series "Savage Earth" devoted to tsunamis. The homepage article provides a brief overview of the mechanism that creates tsunamis, the enormous energy they release, and the role of plate tectonics in earthquake and tsunami generation. Sidebar pages discuss tsunami monitoring and advance warning, and geologic investigations that reveal evidence of destructive tsunamis in the past. There is also an animation that shows how an earthquake at a subduction zone can cause the sea floor to snap upward abruptly, displacing water and generating a tsunami, and a video interview with a survivor of the 1946 tsunami that struck the Hawaiian Islands.

43

Washington Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program  

Science.gov (United States)

Washington State has participated in the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) since its inception in 1995. We have participated in the tsunami inundation hazard mapping, evacuation planning, education, and outreach efforts that generally characterize the NTHMP efforts. We have also investigated hazards of significant interest to the Pacific Northwest. The hazard from locally generated earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone, which threatens tsunami inundation in less than hour following a magnitude 9 earthquake, creates special problems for low-lying accretionary shoreforms in Washington, such as the spits of Long Beach and Ocean Shores, where high ground is not accessible within the limited time available for evacuation. To ameliorate this problem, we convened a panel of the Applied Technology Council to develop guidelines for construction of facilities for vertical evacuation from tsunamis, published as FEMA 646, now incorporated in the International Building Code as Appendix M. We followed this with a program called Project Safe Haven (http://www.facebook.com/ProjectSafeHaven) to site such facilities along the Washington coast in appropriate locations and appropriate designs to blend with the local communities, as chosen by the citizens. This has now been completed for the entire outer coast of Washington. In conjunction with this effort, we have evaluated the potential for earthquake-induced ground failures in and near tsunami hazard zones to help develop cost estimates for these structures and to establish appropriate tsunami evacuation routes and evacuation assembly areas that are likely to to be available after a major subduction zone earthquake. We intend to continue these geotechnical evaluations for all tsunami hazard zones in Washington.

Walsh, T. J.; Schelling, J.

2012-12-01

44

Predicting natural catastrophes tsunamis  

CERN Document Server

1. Tsunamis - Introduction - Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation - The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning - General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of "tsunami earthquakes" Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys - Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and related milestones. Reconstructing historical tsunamis: eyewitnesses and geological evidence 5. Lessons from the 2004 Indonesian tsunami - Lessons in seismology Lessons in Geology The new technologies Lessons in civ...

CERN. Geneva

2005-01-01

45

Tsunami diaries  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Inspired by recent discussion on how Serbian media influenced allegedly indifferent reaction of the public to the aftermath of tsunami, this paper examines the role of electronic media in Serbia, television in particular, in regard to their function as a central communication channel for acquiring knowledge about world surroundings. With a premise of having cultural and discursive power, Dnevnik, the central news program of the Serbian public broadcaster, is taken as a paradigmatic media text for analysis in order to examine ways in which global affairs and phenomena are portrayed and structured in television representation of reality. It is suggested that it is fair to conclude that world affairs are marginalized within the representational frame of news broadcasts, and that the media discourse could be depicted as dominantly introverted when it comes to global flow of information and cultural meanings, which is significant regarding cultural perception of world realities among Serbian audiences.

Radovi? Sr?an

2005-01-01

46

Tsunami Modeling and Inundation Mapping in Southcentral Alaska  

Science.gov (United States)

The Alaska Earthquake Information Center (AEIC) participates in the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program by evaluating and mapping potential tsunami inundation of coastal Alaska. We evaluate potential tsunami hazards for several coastal communities near the epicenter of the 1964 Great Alaska Earthquake and numerically model the extent of their inundation due to tsunamis generated by earthquake and landslide sources. Tsunami scenarios include a repeat of the tsunami triggered by the 1964 Great Alaska Earthquake, as well as hypothetical tsunamis generated by an extended 1964 rupture, a Cascadia megathrust earthquake, earthquakes from the Prince William Sound and Kodiak asperities of the 1964 rupture, and a hypothetical Tohoku-type rupture in the Gulf of Alaska region. Local underwater landslide events in several communities are also considered as credible tsunamigenic scenarios. We perform simulations for each of the source scenarios using AEIC's recently developed and tested numerical model of tsunami wave propagation and runup. Results of the numerical modeling are verified by simulating the tectonic and landslide-generated tsunamis observed during the 1964 earthquake. The tsunami scenarios are intended to provide guidance to local emergency management agencies in tsunami hazard assessment, evacuation planning, and public education for reducing future casualties and damage from tsunamis. During the 1964 earthquake, locally generated waves of unknown origin were identified at several communities, located in the western part of Prince William Sound. The waves appeared shortly after the shaking began and swept away most of the buildings while the shaking continued. We model the tectonic tsunami assuming different tsunami generation processes and claim the importance of including both vertical and horizontal displacement into the 1964 tsunami generation process.

Nicolsky, D.; Suleimani, E.; Koehler, R. D.

2013-12-01

47

Tsunami Casualty Model  

Science.gov (United States)

More than 4500 deaths by tsunamis were recorded in the decade of 1990. For example, the 1992 Flores Tsunami in Indonesia took away at least 1712 lives, and more than 2182 people were victimized by the 1998 Papua New Guinea Tsunami. Such staggering death toll has been totally overshadowed by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami that claimed more than 220,000 lives. Unlike hurricanes that are often evaluated by economic losses, death count is the primary measure for tsunami hazard. It is partly because tsunamis kill more people owing to its short lead- time for warning. Although exact death tallies are not available for most of the tsunami events, there exist gender and age discriminations in tsunami casualties. Significant gender difference in the victims of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami was attributed to women's social norms and role behavior, as well as cultural bias toward women's inability to swim. Here we develop a rational casualty model based on humans' limit to withstand the tsunami flows. The application to simple tsunami runup cases demonstrates that biological and physiological disadvantages also make a significant difference in casualty rate. It further demonstrates that the gender and age discriminations in casualties become most pronounced when tsunami is marginally strong and the difference tends to diminish as tsunami strength increases.

Yeh, H.

2007-12-01

48

Tsunamis: Water Quality  

Science.gov (United States)

... Landslides Tornadoes Tsunamis Volcanoes Wildfires Winter Weather Tsunamis: Water Quality Language: English Español (Spanish) Share Compartir A ... about testing should be directed to local authorities. Water for Drinking, Cooking, and Personal Hygiene Safe water ...

49

Maritime Tsunami Hazard Assessment in California  

Science.gov (United States)

The California tsunami program in cooperation with NOAA and FEMA has begun implementing a plan to increase awareness of tsunami generated hazards to the maritime community (both ships and harbor infrastructure) through the development of in-harbor hazard maps, offshore safety zones for boater evacuation, and associated guidance for harbors and marinas before, during and following tsunamis. The hope is that the maritime guidance and associated education and outreach program will help save lives and reduce exposure of damage to boats and harbor infrastructure. An important step in this process is to understand the causative mechanism for damage in ports and harbors, and then ensure that the models used to generate hazard maps are able to accurately simulate these processes. Findings will be used to develop maps, guidance documents, and consistent policy recommendations for emergency managers and port authorities and provide information critical to real-time decisions required when responding to tsunami alert notifications. Basin resonance and geometric amplification are two reasonably well understood mechanisms for local magnification of tsunami impact in harbors, and are generally the mechanisms investigated when estimating the tsunami hazard potential in a port or harbor. On the other hand, our understanding of and predictive ability for currents is lacking. When a free surface flow is forced through a geometric constriction, it is readily expected that the enhanced potential gradient will drive strong, possibly unstable currents and the associated turbulent coherent structures such as "jets" and "whirlpools"; a simple example would be tidal flow through an inlet channel. However, these fundamentals have not been quantitatively connected with respect to understanding tsunami hazards in ports and harbors. A plausible explanation for this oversight is the observation that these features are turbulent phenomena with spatial and temporal scales much smaller than that of a typical tsunami. The ability to model and then validate these currentsdissect them has only recently become available through the evaluation of dozens of eyewitness accounts and hundreds of videos.developed. In this presentation, we will present ongoing work related to the application of such models to quantify the maritime tsunami hazard in select ports and harbors in California. The development of current-based tsunami hazard maps and safe-offshore-depth delineations will be discussed. We will also present an overview of the challenges in modeling tsunami currents, including capture of turbulent dynamics, coupling with tides, and issues with long-duration simulations. This work in California will form the basis for tsunami hazard reduction for all U.S. maritime communities through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program.

Lynett, P. J.; Borrero, J. C.; Wilson, R. I.; Miller, K. M.

2012-12-01

50

Advanced Planning for Tsunamis in California  

Science.gov (United States)

The California Tsunami Program is comprised of the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services (CalOES) and the California Geological Survey (CGS) and funded through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The program works closely with the 20 coastal counties in California, as well as academic, and industry experts to improve tsunami preparedness and mitigation in shoreline communities. Inundation maps depicting 'worst case' inundation modeled from plausible sources around the Pacific were released in 2009 and have provided a foundation for public evacuation and emergency response planning in California. Experience during recent tsunamis impacting the state (Japan 2011, Chile 2010, Samoa 2009) has brought to light the desire by emergency managers and decision makers for even more detailed information ahead of future tsunamis. A solution to provide enhanced information has been development of 'playbooks' to plan for a variety of expected tsunami scenarios. Elevation 'playbook' lines can be useful for partial tsunami evacuations when enough information about forecast amplitude and arrival times is available to coastal communities and there is sufficient time to make more educated decisions about who to evacuate for a given scenario or actual event. NOAA-issued Tsunami Alert Bulletins received in advance of a distant event will contain an expected wave height (a number) for each given section of coast. Provision of four elevation lines for possible inundation enables planning for different evacuation scenarios based on the above number potentially alleviating the need for an 'all or nothing' decision with regard to evacuation. Additionally an analytical tool called FASTER is being developed to integrate storm, tides, modeling errors, and local tsunami run-up potential with the forecasted tsunami amplitudes in real-time when a tsunami Alert is sent out. Both of these products will help communities better implement evacuations and response activities for minor to moderate (less than maximum) tsunami events. A working group comprised of federal, state, and local governmental scientists, emergency managers, first responders, and community planners has explored details and delivery of the above tools for incorporation into emergency management protocols. The eventual outcome will be inclusion in plans, testing of protocols and methods via drills and exercises and application, as appropriate, during an impending tsunami event.

Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Larkin, D.; Reade, S.; Carnathan, D.; Davis, M.; Nicolini, T.; Johnson, L.; Boldt, E.; Tardy, A.

2013-12-01

51

Improving Tsunami Resilience in Europe - ASTARTE  

Science.gov (United States)

The North East Atlantic, Mediterranean and Adjacent Seas (called NEAM by IOC-UNESCO) is known to be exposed to tsunamis and, like other regions of the world, faces increasing levels of risk due to i) the continuous development of coastal areas with critical infrastructures and accumulated values, and ii) the year-round presence of millions of tourists. In recent years, European researchers have greatly advanced knowledge of tsunami hazards and implementation of operational infrastructures, such as the creation of a regional system of candidate tsunami watch providers (CTWP) and national tsunami warning centers (NTWC). However, significant gaps remain and intensified efforts are needed. The ASTARTE (Assessment STrategy And Risk for Tsunami in Europe) is a three-year long EU-funded project, started in November 2013, that aims to develop a comprehensive strategy to mitigate tsunami impact in the NEAM region. To achieve this goal, an interdisciplinary consortium has been assembled. It includes all NEAM CTWPs and expert institutions across Europe and worldwide. ASTARTE will improve i) the basic knowledge on tsunami generation and recurrence with novel empirical data and new statistical analyses for assessing long-term recurrence and hazards of large events in sensitive areas within NEAM, ii) numerical techniques for tsunami simulation focusing on real-time codes, novel statistical emulation approaches, and experiments on damage analysis, and iii) methods for the assessment of hazard, vulnerability, and risk. ASTARTE will also provide i) guidelines for tsunami Eurocodes, ii) better forecasting and warning tools for CTWPs and NTWCs, and iii) guidelines for decision makers to increase the sustainability and resilience of coastal communities. In summary, ASTARTE will develop basic scientific and technical elements allowing for a significant enhancement of the Tsunami Warning System in the NEAM region in terms of monitoring, early warning,forecast, and resilience, with specific implementation in 9 tsunami test sites. Overall, this will lead to the goal of the European/NEAM Horizon 2020 strategy: to foster tsunami resilient communities. www.astarte-project.eu This work is funded by project ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe. Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3 ENV.2013.6.4-3).

Baptista, Maria Ana; Yalciner, Ahmet; Canals, Miquel; Behrens, Joern; Fuhrman, David; Gonzalez, Mauricio; Harbitz, Carl; Kanoglu, Utku; Karanci, Nurai; Lavigne, Franck; Lorito, Stefano; Meghraoui, Mustafa; Melis, Nikolaos S.; Necmioglu, Ocal; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Rudloff, Alexander; Schindele, François; Terrinha, Pedro; Tinti, Stefano

2014-05-01

52

A culture of tsunami preparedness and applying knowledge from recent tsunamis affecting California  

Science.gov (United States)

It is the mission of the California Tsunami Program to ensure public safety by protecting lives and property before, during, and after a potentially destructive or damaging tsunami. In order to achieve this goal, the state has sought first to use finite funding resources to identify and quantify the tsunami hazard using the best available scientific expertise, modeling, data, mapping, and methods at its disposal. Secondly, it has been vital to accurately inform the emergency response community of the nature of the threat by defining inundation zones prior to a tsunami event and leveraging technical expertise during ongoing tsunami alert notifications (specifically incoming wave heights, arrival times, and the dangers of strong currents). State scientists and emergency managers have been able to learn and apply both scientific and emergency response lessons from recent, distant-source tsunamis affecting coastal California (from Samoa in 2009, Chile in 2010, and Japan in 2011). Emergency managers must understand and plan in advance for specific actions and protocols for each alert notification level provided by the NOAA/NWS West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center. Finally the state program has provided education and outreach information via a multitude of delivery methods, activities, and end products while keeping the message simple, consistent, and focused. The goal is a culture of preparedness and understanding of what to do in the face of a tsunami by residents, visitors, and responsible government officials. We provide an update of results and findings made by the state program with support of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program through important collaboration with other U.S. States, Territories and agencies. In 2009 the California Emergency Management Agency (CalEMA) and the California Geological Survey (CGS) completed tsunami inundation modeling and mapping for all low-lying, populated coastal areas of California to assist local jurisdictions on the coast in the identification of areas possible to be inundated in a tsunami. "Tsunami Inundation Maps for Emergency Planning" have provided the basis for some of the following preparedness, planning, and education activities in California: Improved evacuation and emergency response plans; Production of multi-language brochures: statewide, community, and boating; Development and support of tsunami scenario-driven exercises and drills; Development of workshops to educate both emergency managers and public; and Establishment of a comprehensive information website www.tsunami.ca.gov; and a preparedness website myhazards.calema.ca.gov. In addition, the California Tsunami Program has a number of initiatives underway through existing work plans to continue to apply scientifically vetted information toward comprehensive public understanding of the threat from future tsunamis to constituents on the coast. These include projects to: Complete tsunami land-use planning maps for California communities, Develop in-harbor tsunami hazard maps statewide, Complete modeling of offshore safety zones for the maritime community, Complete preliminary tsunami risk analysis for state utilizing new HAZUS tsunami module and probabilistic analysis results, and Develop a post-tsunami recovery and resiliency plan for the state.

Miller, K. M.; Wilson, R. I.

2012-12-01

53

Tsunami Hazard Assessment in Guam  

Science.gov (United States)

The island of Guam is located approximately 1500 miles south of Japan, in the vicinity of the Mariana Trench. It is surrounded in close proximity by three subduction zones, Nankai-Taiwan, East Philippines and Mariana Trench that pose a considerable near to intermediate field tsunami threat. Tsunami catalogues list 14 tsunamigenic earthquake with Mw?8.0 since 1900 only in this region, (Soloviev and Go, 1974; Lander, 1993; Iida, 1984; Lander and Lowell, 2002), however the island has not been significantly affected by some of the largest far-field events of the past century, such as the 1952 Kamchatka, 1960 Chile, and the 1964 Great Alaska earthquake. An assessment of the tsunami threat to the island from both near and far field sources, using forecast tools originally developed at NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) for real-time forecasting of tsunamis is presented here. Tide gauge records from 1952 Kamchatka, 1964 Alaska, and 1960 Chile earthquakes at Apra Harbor are used to validate our model set up, and to explain the limited impact of these historical events on Guam. Identification of worst-case scenarios, and determination of tsunamigenic effective source regions are presented for five vulnerable locations on the island via a tsunami sensitivity study. Apra Harbor is the site of a National Ocean Service (NOS) tide gauge and the biggest harbor on the island. Tumon Bay, Pago Bay, Agana Bay and Inarajan Bay are densely populated areas that require careful investigation. The sensitivity study shows that earthquakes from Eastern Philippines present a major threat to west coast facing sites, whereas the Marina Trench poses the biggest concern to the east coast facing sites.

Arcas, D.; Uslu, B.; Titov, V.; Chamberlin, C.

2008-12-01

54

Tsunamis in Cuba?; Tsunamis en Cuba?  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cuba as neo tectonics structure in the southern of the North American plate had three tsunamis. One of them [local] occurred in the Central-Northern region [1931.10.01, Nortecubana fault], the other was a tele tsunami [1755.11.01, in the SW of the Iberian Peninsula] that hit the Bay of Santiago de Cuba, and the third took place at 1867.11.18, by the regional source of Virgin Islands, which produced waves in the Eastern Cuban region. This tsunami originated to the NE of Puerto Rico in 1918.10.11, with another earthquake of equal magnitude and at similar coordinates, produced a tsunami that did not affect Cuba. Information on the influence of regional tsunami in 1946.08.08 of the NE of the Dominican Republic [Matanzas] in Northwestern Cuba [beaches Guanabo-Baracoa] is contrary to expectations with the waves propagation. The local event of 1939.08.15 attributed to Central- Northern Cuba [Cayo Frances with M = 8.1] does not correspond at all with the maximum magnitude of earthquakes in this region and the potential of the Nortecubana fault. Tsunamis attributed to events such as 1766.06.11 and 1932.02.03 in the Santiago de Cuba Bay are not reflected in the original documents from experts and eyewitnesses. Tsunamis from Jamaica have not affected the coasts of Cuba, despite its proximity. There is no influence in Cuba of tsunamigenic sources of the southern and western parts of the Caribbean, or the Gulf of Mexico. Set out the doubts as to the influence of tsunamis from Haiti and Dominican Republic at Guantanamo Bay which is closer to and on the same latitude, and spatial orientation than the counterpart of Santiago de Cuba, that had impact. The number of fatalities by authors in the Caribbean is different and contradictory. (Author) 76 refs.

Cotilla Rodriguez, M. O.

2011-07-01

55

COMMENT ON: TSUNAMIS AND TSUNAMI-LIKE WAVES OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY PATRICIA A. LOCKRIDGE, LOWELL S. WHITESIDE AND JAMES F. LANDER WITH RESPECT TO THE NOVEMBER 18, 1929 EARTHQUAKE AND ITS TSUNAMI  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This most valuable compilation by Patricia Lockridge et al. (2002 covers a wide range of tsunamis and tsunami-like events ranging from marine tectonic, volcanic, and landslide tsunamis to possible meteorologic tsunami-like events. Lockridge et al.'s (2002 massive text table (pp. 124-141 entitled "Description of Events" covers events from 1668 to 1992. The 2002 paper in Science of Tsunami Hazards was clearly intended to be an update of, an extension to, and a sequel to, the first east coast and Caribbean tsunami compilations contained in Lander and Lockridge's 1989 National Geophysical Data Center volume United States Tsunamis (including United States Possessions 1690-1988.The Lockridge et al. (2002 compilation contains a small error with respect to the 1929 "Grand Banks" Earthquake and Tsunami of which I may be cause in part. In addition the tsunami histories of oceans without a tsunami warning system will be now receiving much closer attention, including historic events in the Atlantic Ocean given the events of December 26, 2004 and March 18, 2005 in the Indian Ocean; both the Atlantic and the Indian Oceans have no tsunami warning system and have an incomplete tsunami history.

Alan Ruffman

2005-01-01

56

Tsunami Preparedness  

Science.gov (United States)

... Emergency Tools and Resources Mobile Apps Our Supporters Corporate and Foundation Community Partners Individual Major Donors National Celebrity Cabinet Volunteer Involve Your School Host a Blood Drive Workplace Giving Fundraise © Copyright 2014 The American Red Cross ...

57

Tsunami Hazard Maps of Alaska Communities  

Science.gov (United States)

The Geophysical Institute of the University of Alaska Fairbanks and the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys participate in the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program by evaluating and mapping potential inundation of selected coastal communities in Alaska. The communities are selected in coordination with the Alaska Division of Emergency Services on the basis of location, infrastructure, availability of bathymetric and topographic data, and willingness for a community to use the results for hazard mitigation. We work in cooperation with the NOAA/PMEL Center for Tsunami Inundation Mapping Efforts, which assists in developing bathymetric and topographic data grids for the area of interest. Three communities in the vicinity of Kodiak were the first for which we produced inundation maps. The work is under way for Homer, Seldovia, and possibly other communities along Kachemak Bay. We use numerical modeling as a primary research tool to study tsunami waves generated by earthquake sources. We consider several hypothetical tsunami scenarios with a potential to generate tsunami waves that can affect the coastal communities. The nonlinear shallow-water wave equations are solved with a finite-difference method. We use embedded grids that increase in resolution from the source area to the target community. State and local emergency planners will use results of the numerical modeling combined with historical observations to develop evacuation plans and to educate the public for reducing risk from future tsunamis.

Suleimani, E.; Hansen, R.; Combellick, R.

2002-12-01

58

Partnership disengagement from primary community care networks (PCCNs: A qualitative study for a national demonstration project  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background The Primary Community Care Network (PCCN Demonstration Project, launched by the Bureau of National Health Insurance (BNHI in 2003, is still in progress. Partnership structures in PCCNs represent both contractual clinic-to-clinic and clinic-to-hospital member relationships of organizational aspects. The partnership structures are the formal relationships between individuals and the total network. Their organizational design aims to ensure effective communication, coordination, and integration across the total network. Previous studies have focused largely on how contractual integration among the partnerships works and on its effects. Few studies, however, have tried to understand partnership disengagement in PCCNs. This study explores why some partnerships in PCCNs disengage. Methods This study used a qualitative methodology with semi-structured questions for in-depth interviews. The semi-structured questions were pre-designed to explore the factors driving partnership disengagement. Thirty-seven clinic members who had withdrawn from their PCCNs were identified from the 2003-2005 Taiwan Primary Community Care Network Lists. Results Organization/participant factors (extra working time spend and facility competency, network factors (partner collaboration, and community factors (health policy design incompatibility, patient-physician relationship, and effectiveness are reasons for clinic physicians to withdraw or change their partnerships within the PCCNs. Conclusions To strengthen partnership relationships, several suggestions are made, including to establish clinic and hospital member relationships, and to reduce administrative work. In addition, both educating the public about the concept of family doctors and ensuring well-organized national health policies could help health care providers improve the integration processes.

Lin Cheng-Chieh

2010-04-01

59

Beyond Age and Adjustment: A Cross-National Qualitative Study of Older Adults’ Perceptions  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Aims: To explore the older adults’ perceptions of age and aging, focusing on adjustment to aging (AtA and subjective age (SA. Methods: This cross-national and qualitative study comprised demographics and semistructured interviews. Complete information on 151 older adults aged between 75-101 years (M = 84.6; SD = 6.905 from Portugal, Romania Angola was available. Data was subjected to content analysis. Results: The most predominant response of the interviewed participants for indicators of AtA was ‘existential meaning’ (26.3%, whilst ‘balanced’ (36.5% was identified as the most prevalent SA response. In total, five categories were identified to be indicative of AtA: ‘sense of purpose and ambitions’, ‘health and wellness’, ‘social support’, ‘stability and accessibility’ and ‘existential meaning’ whereas, four categories were identified for SA: ‘balanced, ‘old’, ‘youthful’ and ‘dissatisfied’. Conclusions: This study highlights the need for a better understanding of what defines AtA and SA among the elderly. Furthermore, health care providers’ awareness of older adults’ conceptualizations will allow them to communicate more effectively and to reinforce aging well among older populations.Key words: Adjustment to aging; Subjective age; aging well; Older adults; Content analysis

Georgeta Niculescu

2012-10-01

60

TRIDEC Natural Crisis Management Demonstrator for Tsunamis  

Science.gov (United States)

The management of natural crises is an important application field of the technology developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), co-funded by the European Commission in its Seventh Framework Programme. TRIDEC is based on the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) providing a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination. In TRIDEC new developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) are used to extend the existing platform realising a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems for deployment, e.g. in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region. The Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI), representing the Tsunami National Contact (TNC) and Tsunami Warning Focal Point (TWFP) for Turkey, is one of the key partners in TRIDEC. KOERI is responsible for the operation of a National Tsunami Warning Centre (NTWC) for Turkey and establishes Candidate Tsunami Watch Provider (CTWP) responsibilities for the NEAM region. Based on this profound experience, KOERI is contributing valuable requirements to the overall TRIDEC system and is responsible for the definition and development of feasible tsunami-related scenarios. However, KOERI's most important input focuses on testing and evaluating the TRIDEC system according to specified evaluation and validation criteria. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing challenges, such as the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources with accelerated generation of large volumes of data. These include sensor systems, geo-information repositories, simulation tools and data fusion tools. In addition to conventional sensors also unconventional sensors and sensor networks play an important role in TRIDEC. The first system demonstrator, deployed at KOERI's crisis management room, has been designed and implemented to support plausible scenarios for the Turkish NTWC and to demonstrate the treatment of simulated tsunami threats with an essential subset of a NTWC. The feasibility and the potentials of the implemented approach are demonstrated covering standard operations as well as tsunami detection and alerting functions. The demonstrator presented addresses information management and decision-support processes in a hypothetical natural crisis situation caused by a tsunami in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Hammitzsch, M.; Necmioglu, O.; Reißland, S.; Lendholt, M.; Comoglu, M.; Ozel, N. M.; Wächter, J.

2012-04-01

 
 
 
 
61

A~probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia  

Science.gov (United States)

Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence based decision making on risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc, with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time independent forecasts of tsunami hazard at the coast from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte-carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and through sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting larger maximum magnitudes along the Sunda Arc. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height at the coast of > 0.5 m is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda Islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of >3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

2014-05-01

62

A~probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence based decision making on risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc, with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA for Indonesia. This assessment produces time independent forecasts of tsunami hazard at the coast from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte-carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and through sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500–2500 years, the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting larger maximum magnitudes along the Sunda Arc. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height at the coast of > 0.5 m is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda Islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of >3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1–10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1–1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

N. Horspool

2014-05-01

63

What Is a Tsunami?  

Science.gov (United States)

... help protect people in Hawaii and on the West Coast, where tsunamis can hit. Scientists and researchers monitor ... In the United States, Alaska, Hawaii, and the coasts of Washington, Oregon and California are most at risk. In fact, tsunamis hit Hawaii about once a year. Most ... Us: Division of Population Health/School Health Branch Centers ...

64

Educating and Preparing for Tsunamis in the Caribbean  

Science.gov (United States)

The Caribbean and Adjacent Regions has a long history of tsunamis and earthquakes. Over the past 500 years, more than 75 tsunamis have been documented in the region by the NOAA National Geophysical Data Center. Just since 1842, 3446 lives have been lost to tsunamis; this is more than in the Northeastern Pacific for the same time period. With a population of almost 160 million, over 40 million visitors a year and a heavy concentration of residents, tourists, businesses and critical infrastructure along its shores (especially in the northern and eastern Caribbean), the risk to lives and livelihoods is greater than ever before. The only way to survive a tsunami is to get out of harm's way before the waves strike. In the Caribbean given the relatively short distances from faults, potential submarine landslides and volcanoes to some of the coastlines, the tsunamis are likely to be short fused, so it is imperative that tsunami warnings be issued extremely quickly and people be educated on how to recognize and respond. Nevertheless, given that tsunamis occur infrequently as compared with hurricanes, it is a challenge for them to receive the priority they require in order to save lives when the next one strikes the region. Close cooperation among countries and territories is required for warning, but also for education and public awareness. Geographical vicinity and spoken languages need to be factored in when developing tsunami preparedness in the Caribbean, to make sure citizens receive a clear, reliable and sound science based message about the hazard and the risk. In 2006, in the wake of the Indian Ocean tsunami and after advocating without success for a Caribbean Tsunami Warning System since the mid 90's, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO established the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (CARIBE EWS). Its purpose is to advance an end to end tsunami warning system that serves regionally and delivers locally, saving lives and livelihoods, not only from tsunamis, but all coastal hazards. Through this and other platforms, physical and social scientists, emergency managers and elected officials have been working together via different mechanisms. Community based recognition programs, like the TsunamiReadyTM Program, regional tsunami exercises, sub-regional public education activities such as the Tsunami Smart campaigns, internet technologies, social media, meetings and conferences, identification of local and national champions, capitalization of news breaking tsunamis and earthquakes, economic resources for equipment and training have all been key to developing a tsunami safer Caribbean. Given these efforts, according to a 2013 survey, 93% of the countries covered by CARIBE EWS have tsunami response protocols in place, although much more work is required. In 2010 the US National Weather Service established the Caribbean Tsunami Warning Program as the first step towards a Caribbean Tsunami Warning Center in the region. In 2013 the Caribbean Tsunami Information Center was established in Barbados. Both these institutions which serve the region play a key role for promoting both the warning and educational components of the warning system.

von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.; Aliaga, B.; Edwards, S.

2013-12-01

65

Modeling Tsunami Sedimentation  

Science.gov (United States)

The inundation of a tsunami, whether generated from a submarine landslide or an underwater earthquake, often results in beach erosion, landward sediment transport, and deposition of a tsunami deposit. If the deposit is preserved, then it becomes a record of the tsunami, and may be useful in interpreting a region's tsunami hazard. In addition to the knowledge that a tsunami had previously inundated an area, is there more that can be learned from paleo-tsunami deposits? To address this question we are developing models of tsunami inundation and sediment transport and using them to relate sedimentological characteristics of the deposit, such as grain size and thickness, to hydrodynamic characteristics of the tsunami, such as maximum velocity and flow depth. Model results are tested and verified using field data from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Data on tsunami flow depth, inundation distance, nearshore bathymetry, topography, tsunami deposit thickness, and sediment samples for grain size analysis were collected along several cross shore transects in Sumatra. These data are compared to predictions of erosion and deposition from a high resolution tsunami inundation and sediment transport model constructed over a 4-km cross shore section of coast. The Delft3D model, which solves the non-linear shallow water equations and calculates sediment transport with van Rijn (1993), is implemented with a flooding algorithm proven accurate for dam-break scenarios with rapid flooding. Forced with an offshore water level boundary condition taken from an Indian Ocean propagation model, the high-resolution inundation model predicts tsunami shoaling at the coast, with the wave-form steepening, wavelength decreasing, and wave height increasing. Maximum flow at the shoreline is directed offshore during the drawdown phase and is enhanced by the draining of water off the coastal plain. This offshore flow erodes the beach, transporting a substantial volume of sediment to a depth of approximately 12 m (msl), precisely the location of an offshore bar observed in the bathymetric data. Onshore flow, reaching a maximum velocity of approximately 8 m/s, also erodes the beach and carries sand onto the coastal plain. The tsunami deposit on land varies in thickness, with thinner deposits on topographic highs and thicker deposits in topographic lows. Model results suggest that variations in thickness results from divergences and convergences in the sediment flux as the flow slows over the topographic lows and speeds up over the topographic highs. Model results also indicate that the deposit thickness is sensitive to sediment grain size. Since the grain size of the deposit is poly-modal, multiple grain sizes should be included in future simulations.

Gelfenbaum, G.; Jaffe, B.; Elias, E.; Moore, A.; Ruggiero, P.; Morton, R.

2006-12-01

66

Introduction of a qualitative perinatal audit at Muhimbili National Hospital, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background Perinatal death is a devastating experience for the mother and of concern in clinical practice. Regular perinatal audit may identify suboptimal care related to perinatal deaths and thus appropriate measures for its reduction. The aim of this study was to perform a qualitative perinatal audit of intrapartum and early neonatal deaths and propose means of reducing the perinatal mortality rate (PMR. Methods From 1st August, 2007 to 31st December, 2007 we conducted an audit of perinatal deaths (n = 133 with birth weight 1500 g or more at Muhimbili National Hospital (MNH. The audit was done by three obstetricians, two external and one internal auditors. Each auditor independently evaluated the cases narratives. Suboptimal factors were identified in the antepartum, intrapartum and early neonatal period and classified into three levels of delay (community, infrastructure and health care. The contribution of each suboptimal factor to adverse perinatal outcome was identified and the case graded according to possible avoidability. Degree of agreement between auditors was assessed by the kappa coefficient. Results The PMR was 92 per 1000 total births. Suboptimal factors were identified in 80% of audited cases and half of suboptimal factors were found to be the likely cause of adverse perinatal outcome and were preventable. Poor foetal heart monitoring during labour was indirectly associated with over 40% of perinatal death. There was a poor to fair agreement between external and internal auditors. Conclusion There are significant areas of care that need improvement. Poor monitoring during labour was a major cause of avoidable perinatal mortality. This type of audit was a good starting point for quality assurance at MNH. Regular perinatal audits to identify avoidable causes of perinatal deaths with feed back to the staff may be a useful strategy to reduce perinatal mortality.

Thomas Angela N

2009-09-01

67

International year of planet earth 7. Oceans, submarine land-slides and consequent tsunamis in Canada  

Science.gov (United States)

Canada has the longest coastline and largest continental margin of any nation in the World. As a result, it is more likely than other nations to experience marine geohazards such as submarine landslides and consequent tsunamis. Coastal landslides represent a specific threat because of their possible proximity to societal infrastructure and high tsunami potential; they occur without warning and with little time lag between failure and tsunami impact. Continental margin landslides are common in the geologic record but rare on human timescales. Some ancient submarine landslides are massive but more recent events indicate that even relatively small slides on continental margins can generate devastating tsunamis. Tsunami impact can occur hundreds of km away from the source event, and with less than 2 hours warning. Identification of high-potential submarine landslide regions, combined with an understanding of landslide and tsunami processes and sophisticated tsunami propagation models, are required to identify areas at high risk of impact.

Mosher, D. C.

2009-01-01

68

The Catalog of Event Data of the Operational Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) Stations at the National Data Buoy Center  

Science.gov (United States)

DART systems are a critical component of the tsunami warning system as they provide the only real-time, in situ, tsunami detection before landfall. DART systems consist of a surface buoy that serves as a position locater and communications transceiver and a Bottom Pressure Recorder (BPR) on the seafloor. The BPR records temperature and pressure at 15-second intervals to a memory card for later retrieval for analysis and use by tsunami researchers, but the BPRs are normally recovered only once every two years. The DART systems also transmit subsets of the data, converted to an estimation of the sea surface height, in near real-time for use by the tsunami warning community. These data are available on NDBC's webpages, http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/dart.shtml. Although not of the resolution of the data recorded to the BPR memory card, the near real-time data have proven to be of value in research applications [1]. Of particular interest are the DART data associated with geophysical events. The DART BPR continuously compares the measured sea height with a predicted sea-height and when the difference exceeds a threshold value, the BPR goes into Event Mode. Event Mode provides an extended, more frequent near real-time reporting of the sea surface heights for tsunami detection. The BPR can go into Event Mode because of geophysical triggers, such as tsunamis or seismic activity, which may or may not be tsunamigenic. The BPR can also go into Event Mode during recovery of the BPR as it leaves the seafloor, or when manually triggered by the Tsunami Warning Centers in advance of an expected tsunami. On occasion, the BPR will go into Event Mode without any associated tsunami or seismic activity or human intervention and these are considered "False'' Events. Approximately one- third of all Events can be classified as "False". NDBC is responsible for the operations, maintenance, and data management of the DART stations. Each DART station has a webpage with a drop-down list of all Events. NDBC maintains the non-geophysical Events in order to maintain the continuity of the time series records. In 2007, NDBC compiled all DART Events that occurred while under NDBC's operational control and made an assessment on their validity. The NDBC analysts performed the assessment using the characteristics of the data time series, triggering criteria, and associated seismic events. The compilation and assessments are catalogued in a NDBC technical document. The Catalog also includes a listing of the one-hour, high-resolution data, retrieved remotely from the BPRs that are not available on the web pages. The Events are classified by their triggering mechanism and listed by station location and, for those Events associated with geophysical triggers, they are listed by their associated seismic events. The Catalog provides researchers with a valuable tool in locating, assessing, and applying near real-time DART data to tsunami research and will be updated following DART Events. A link to the published Catalog can be found on the NDBC DART website, http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/dart.shtml. Reference: [1] Gower, J. and F. González (2006), U.S. Warning System Detected the Sumatra Tsunami, Eos Trans. AGU, 87(10), 105-112.

Bouchard, R.; Locke, L.; Hansen, W.; Collins, S.; McArthur, S.

2007-12-01

69

Facilitating adherence to physical activity: exercise professionals' experiences of the National Exercise Referral Scheme in Wales. a qualitative study  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Abstract Background Although implementers' experiences of exercise referral schemes (ERS) may provide valuable insights into how their reach and effectiveness might be improved, most qualitative research has included only views of patients. This paper explores exercise professionals' experiences of engaging diverse clinical populations in an ERS, and emergence of local practices to support uptake and adherence in the National Exercise Referral Scheme (NERS) in Wales. M...

Moore Graham F; Moore Laurence; Murphy Simon

2011-01-01

70

Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Tsunamis of Tectonic Origin: a new Method Applied to South-West Italy  

Science.gov (United States)

Italy has been affected by large tsunamis in the past. From historical catalogues the occurrence rate of tsunamis in the Italian seas is about 15 events per century, which shows that tsunamis are very rare phenomena and that probabilistic techniques cannot be applied with confidence, especially if interest is not nation-wide but is focussed on regional coastal areas. Here a method is presented that derives tsunami potential from the assessment of the occurrence rate of tsunamigenic earthquakes, and that, therefore, makes use of seismic catalogues as the primary source of information. The method is restricted to tsunamis of seismic origin, and nothing can tell on tsunamis generated by volcanic activity and by mass movements. Improving a methodology originally used for a preliminary evaluation of tsunami hazard in Italy more than one decade ago (Tinti, 1991), this paper applies probabilistic seismic hazard techniques focussing on south-west Italy, namely on Calabria and Sicily, that are among the most active seismic regions in Italy. The analysis is based on the Italian seismic catalogue known as CPTI2, that was recently released (2004) and that is integrated with the INGV catalogue, spanning a time period longer than 2000 years. The main steps of the procedure are: 1) estimating the occurrence rate of tsunamigenic earthquakes; 2) assessing the initial disturbance of the sea, with the aid of appropriate relationships between the earthquake size and the ensuing tsunami size; 3) evaluating the expected maximum tsunami height on the coast, on the basis of the known propagation properties of tsunamis. As the result of the analysis, estimated return periods of earthquake-induced tsunamis capable of producing coastal wave heights exceeding a given threshold are computed and shown in the form of suitable maps.

Tinti, S.; Armigliato, A.; Tonini, R.; Maramai, A.; Graziani, L.

2004-12-01

71

Tsunami Travel Time Approximation  

Science.gov (United States)

Eric Grosfils, Pomona College Summary Students are asked to calculate approximate tsunami travel times across the Pacific basin. The assignment builds off of a lab introducing students to Spatial Analyst, and ...

Grosfils, Eric

72

Formation of a Tsunami  

Science.gov (United States)

This Flash animation, by McGraw-Hill, illustrates the steps involved in producing a tsunami. First, motion along a submerged fault plane causes a column of water to rise directly above the epicenter. As the wave approaches the shore, it slows, wave height grows, and wave crests grow closer together. The heightened wave then reaches the shore and can extend far inland, destroying everything in its path. Tsunami-like waves can also be caused by underwater landslides.

Mcgraw-Hill

73

Floods and tsunamis.  

Science.gov (United States)

Floods and tsunamis cause few severe injuries, but those injuries can overwhelm local areas, depending on the magnitude of the disaster. Most injuries are extremity fractures, lacerations, and sprains. Because of the mechanism of soft tissue and bone injuries, infection is a significant risk. Aspiration pneumonias are also associated with tsunamis. Appropriate precautionary interventions prevent communicable dis-ease outbreaks. Psychosocial health issues must be considered. PMID:16781270

Llewellyn, Mark

2006-06-01

74

Modelling of Tsunami Waves  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The nonlinear dispersive model based on the forced Korteweg-de Vries equation (fKdV is developed from the approximation of Boussinesq shallow water type model. This provides the possibility of observing, in particular, the process of tsunami generation by atmospheric disturbances. The fKdV is then solved numerically via an explicit finite difference method. From the simulations, the roles of nonlinearity, dispersion and forcing terms in the process of tsunami generation are shown explicitly.

Nazeeruddin Yaacob

2008-12-01

75

Tsunami: ocean dynamo generator.  

Science.gov (United States)

Secondary magnetic fields are induced by the flow of electrically conducting seawater through the Earth's primary magnetic field ('ocean dynamo effect'), and hence it has long been speculated that tsunami flows should produce measurable magnetic field perturbations, although the signal-to-noise ratio would be small because of the influence of the solar magnetic fields. Here, we report on the detection of deep-seafloor electromagnetic perturbations of 10-micron-order induced by a tsunami, which propagated through a seafloor electromagnetometer array network. The observed data extracted tsunami characteristics, including the direction and velocity of propagation as well as sea-level change, first to verify the induction theory. Presently, offshore observation systems for the early forecasting of tsunami are based on the sea-level measurement by seafloor pressure gauges. In terms of tsunami forecasting accuracy, the integration of vectored electromagnetic measurements into existing scalar observation systems would represent a substantial improvement in the performance of tsunami early-warning systems. PMID:24399356

Sugioka, Hiroko; Hamano, Yozo; Baba, Kiyoshi; Kasaya, Takafumi; Tada, Noriko; Suetsugu, Daisuke

2014-01-01

76

Moral disengagement and associated processes in performance-enhancing drug use: a national qualitative investigation.  

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This study investigated psychosocial processes associated with avoidance of health- and morality-based deterrents to performance-enhancing drug (PED) use. In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with 64 English male bodybuilders with experience of doping. Resultant data were content analysed deductively using definitions for the eight mechanisms of moral disengagement (MD; Bandura, A. (1991). Social cognitive theory of moral thought and action. In W. M. Kurtines & J. L. Gewirtz (Eds.), Handbook of moral behavior and development: Theory research and applications (pp. 71-129). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.), and three further themes from Boardley and Grix (2013. Doping in bodybuilders: A qualitative investigation of facilitative psychosocial processes. Qualitative Research in Sport, Exercise, and Health. Advance online publication, doi 10.1080/2159676X.2013.766809). These analyses evidenced six MD mechanisms, and all three of the themes from Boardley and Grix (2013. Doping in bodybuilders: A qualitative investigation of facilitative psychosocial processes. Qualitative Research in Sport, Exercise, and Health. Advance online publication). Subsequent frequency analyses revealed six of the eight MD mechanisms, and two of the three additional themes, were common across the sample. Overall, the findings suggest MD may help athletes circumvent health- and morality-based deterrents to doping, describe a process linking supplement and PED use and detail how some athletes may actively avoid social censure for doping by only discussing PED use with other PED users from within their training environment. PMID:24405120

Boardley, Ian D; Grix, Jonathan; Dewar, Andrew James

2014-01-01

77

Using Qualitative Research Strategies in Cross-National Projects: The English-Finnish Experience  

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Some methodological issues are discussed that arise from our comparative research conducted since the early 1990s into primary schooling in Finland and England. This research has been identified as part of a "new" comparative education that uses qualitative research strategies and which prioritises sensitivity to cultural context in data…

Vulliamy, Graham; Webb, Rosemary

2009-01-01

78

Zero Magnitude Effect for the Productivity of Triggered Tsunami Sources  

Science.gov (United States)

The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is applied to tsunami events to explain previously observed temporal clustering of tsunami sources. Tsunami events are defined by National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) tsunami database. For the ETAS analysis, the earthquake magnitude associated with each tsunami event in the NGDC database is replaced by the primary magnitude listed in the Centennial catalog up until 1976 and in the Global CMT catalog from 1976 through 2010. Tsunamis with a submarine landslide or volcanic component are included if they are accompanied by an earthquake, which is most often the case. Tsunami size is used as a mark for determining a tsunami-generating event, according to a minimum completeness level. The tsunami catalog is estimated to be complete for tsunami sizes greater than 1 m since 1900 and greater than 0.1 m since 1960. Of the five parameters in the temporal ETAS model (Ogata, 1988), the parameter that scales the magnitude dependence in the productivity of triggered events is the one that is most different from ETAS parameters derived from similar earthquake catalogs. Maximum likelihood estimates of this magnitude effect parameter is essentially zero, within 95% confidence, for both the 0.1 m and 1.0 m tsunami completeness levels. To explain this result, parameter estimates are determined for the Global CMT catalog under three tsunamigenic conditions: (1) M?7 and focal depth ?50 km, (2) submarine location, and (3) dominant component of dip slip. Successive subcatalogs are formed from the Global CMT catalog according to each of these conditions. The high magnitude threshold for tsunamigenesis alone (subcatalog 1) does not explain the zero magnitude effect. The zero magnitude effect also does not appear to be caused the smaller number of tsunamigenic events analyzed in comparison to earthquake catalogs with a similar magnitude threshold. ETAS parameter estimates from the subcatalog (3) with all three tsunamigenic conditions applied is consistent with ETAS parameters estimated from the tsunami catalog, suggesting that the dip-slip condition is important in explaining the zero magnitude effect. The consistency between ETAS parameters from the tsunami catalog and earthquake catalog with tsunamigenic conditions applied indicates that the ETAS model can be used as a framework for understanding the temporal occurrence of tsunami sources.

Geist, E. L.

2013-12-01

79

Preparing for the next Tsunami: Training in Seismology and Tsunami Warnings in the Indian Ocean Region  

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The December, 2004, Indian Ocean tsunami highlighted the need to increase capacity building in the countries most severely affected by the international disaster. In response to this need, the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System (IOTWS) Program, under the framework of the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), was developed in order to create "tsunami resilient" communities in the Indian Ocean region. The IOTWS has several components including technical assistance, regional hazard detection, prediction, and warning formulation, national dissemination and communication of warnings, local knowledge and preparedness to act, and regional or sub-regional exchange of lessons learned and best practices. A series of training courses are currently underway in the Indian Ocean region designed to improve the understanding of earthquake seismology and tsunami warnings of staff employed in the day-to-day running of the national tsunami warning systems. Learning is directed through lecturers complemented with computer- based practical sessions. To date five courses have been run, in Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, the Maldives and Sri Lanka. Each course was between 5 and 9 days in duration and was sponsored by U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the IOC, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). An additional five "follow-on" courses are planned for the region and will be conducted in 2007.

Kong, L.; Mooney, W. D.; Kelly, A.

2006-12-01

80

Behaviors Of Concrete Walls Under Impulsive Tsunami Load  

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1. INTRODUCTION Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004 made us to recognize of the power of the huge tsunami. But there are few reports of the mechanism of structure destruction due to inundation tsunami. So, at first, the physical model tests are conducted to clarify the mechanism of failure of concrete wall due to the impulsive tsunami. 2. LARGE PHYSICAL MODEL TESTS (1) Experimental setup: The size of the Large Hydro Geo Flume is 184m long, 3.5m wide and 12m deep at the maximum. This wave flume has the 14m stroke and can generate the 2.5m height tsunami. The concrete walls are set up from the edge to the position in 1.8m. The size of walls is 2.5m high and 2.5m wide. The thickness of walls is changed from 6cm to 10.0cm. Pressure and strain gauges are set up. (2) State of tsunami attack: Maximum height of tsunami above the still water level is 2.5m and inundation depth in front of wall is 1.8m. The very big splash is occurred in a moment of attacking tsunami. (3) State of destruction: The results show that the concrete wall is broken in the instance of tsunami attacking at the lower part of wall. (4) Estimation by using the numerical simulators The validity of estimation by using the numerical simulation system is verified. The pressure in front of concrete wall was calculated by using the STOC-VF (CADMAS-SURF/3D), which is the wave calculator based on VOF method. These pressures were translated to the power of grid to use FEM calculator. the result of the deformation of wall is good agreement with experimental results qualitatively. 3. CONCLUSIONS To clarify the mechanism of failure of concrete wall due to tsunami pressure, the physical model tests were conducted. In the physical model test, several type of concrete are tested. From the results, it is found that the concrete wall with 6cm to 10cm thickness was broken in the instance of tsunami attacking. The validity of estimation by using the numerical simulation system is verified. The results show that these phenomena can be estimated qualitatively by using the numerical simulator.

Arikawa, T.

2008-12-01

 
 
 
 
81

2004 Sumatra Tsunami  

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Full Text Available A catastrophic tsunami on December 26, 2004 caused devastation in the coastal region of six southern provinces of Thailand on the Andaman Sea coast. This paper summaries the characteristics of tsunami with the aim of informing and warning the public and reducing future casualties and damage.The first part is a review of the records of past catastrophic tsunamis, namely those in Chile in 1960, Alaska in 1964, and Flores, Java, Indonesia, in 1992, and the lessons drawn from these tsunamis. An analysis and the impact of the 2004 Sumatra tsunami is then presented and remedial measures recommended.Results of this study are as follows:Firstly, the 2004 Sumatra tsunami ranked fourth in terms of earthquake magnitude (9.0 M after those in 1960 in Chile (9.5 M, 1899 in Alaska (9.2 M and 1964 in Alaska (9.1 M and ranked first in terms of damage and casualties. It was most destructive when breaking in shallow water nearshore.Secondly, the best alleviation measures are 1 to set up a reliable system for providing warning at the time of an earthquake in order to save lives and reduce damage and 2 to establish a hazard map and implement land-use zoning in the devastated areas, according to the following principles:- Large hotels located at an elevation of not less than 10 m above mean sea level (MSL- Medium hotels located at an elevation of not less than 6 m above MSL- Small hotel located at elevation below 6 m MSL, but with the first floor elevated on poles to allow passage of a tsunami wave- Set-back distances from shoreline established for various developments- Provision of shelters and evacuation directionsFinally, public education is an essential part of preparedness.

Vongvisessomjai, S.

2005-09-01

82

Tsunami Deposit Data Base  

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A digital database has been established describing tsunami deposits around the world (3 phases; 15 months). The projects involved the review and tabulation of data derived from books, catalogs, journals, preprints, citations and abstracts (currently 1000 references), into a database designed to provide a comprehensive review of the types of tsunami deposits, their geographic distribution and location, sedimentary characteristics, fossil content, age, preservation, run-up, wave height and inundation observations, etc. (34 parameters). The tsunami occurrences can be divided into many subjects, e.g., Volcanogenic (N=375), Seismites (N=49), Co-seismic (N=258), K/T Boundary Impact-triggered debris flows (N=97), Landslides (N=43), etc. Numerous publications compare tsunami deposits to storm deposits (N=38), or analyze the origin of megaboulders (N=22). Tsunami deposits occur throughout geologic time (Pre-Cambrian to present day), and because of plate tectonics, they occur along plate margins (primarily subduction zones) as well as interior to plates. In addition, they occur in epi-continental seas, fjords, etc. Few publications describe depositional processes. Deposits generated by tsunamis occur in multiple environments such as the marine, fresh water, and subaerial. Common characteristics of tsunami deposits include: 1) Deposition of thin sand sheets (can be normal, massive, inversely graded, chaotic or bimodal). 2) Erosional: basal uncomformity, mud balls, rip-up clasts, reworked fossils produced by scouring. 3) Lithology: Stacks of couplets reflecting marine incursions (often sands) into fresh water or subaerial environments (mud, soil, peat). 4) Fossil: Couplets reflects marine fossils, fresh water fossils or a mixed assemblage. 5) Geomorphology: The sand sheets taper landward and can rise in elevation. 6) Deformation: syn-depositional (soft sediments) and intraformational (stiff sediments).

Keating, B. H.; Wanink, M.

2007-05-01

83

California Tsunami Policy Working Group  

Science.gov (United States)

California has established a Tsunami Policy Working Group of specialists from government and industry, from diverse fields including tsunami, seismic, and flood hazards, local and regional planning, structural engineering, natural hazard policy, and coastal engineering that have come together to facilitate the development of policy recommendations for tsunami hazard mitigation. The group is acting on findings from two major efforts: the USGS SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Project - Tsunami Scenario, a comprehensive impact analysis of a large credible tsunami originating from a M 9.0 earthquake on the Aleutian Islands striking California's Coastline, and the State's Tsunami Hazard Mitigation and Education Program carried out by the California Emergency Management Agency and the California Geological Survey. The latter program is currently involved with several projects to help coastal communities reduce their tsunami risk, including two pilot projects (Crescent City in Del Norte County and the City of Huntington Beach in Orange County) where tsunami risk is among the highest in California, and a third pilot study focusing on the maritime community. The pilot projects are developing and testing probabilistic tsunami hazard products that will assist land-use and construction decisions for coastal development. The role of the policy group is to identify gaps and issues in current tsunami hazard mitigation, make recommendations that will help eliminate these impediments and to provide advice that will assist in the development and implementation of effective tsunami hazard products that will help coastal communities improve tsunami resiliency.

Real, C. R.; Johnson, L. A.

2012-12-01

84

The March 2011 Japan tsunami  

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The March 11th 2011 Tohoku-iki earthquake was the fifth largest on Earth in the last 50 years, it created one of the most devastating tsunamis in history. Dave Tappin describes the background to the tsunami and its impact based on his research on tsunamis and visits to Japan over the past three months.

Tappin, Dave

2011-01-01

85

Tides and tsunamis  

Science.gov (United States)

Although tides and tsunamis are both shallow water waves, it does not follow that they are equally amenable to an observational program using an orbiting altimeter on a satellite. A numerical feasibility investigation using a hypothetical satellite orbit, real tide observations, and sequentially increased levels of white noise has been conducted to study the degradation of the tidal harmonic constants caused by adding noise to the tide data. Tsunami waves, possibly a foot high and one hundred miles long, must be measured in individual orbits, thus requiring high relative resolution.

Zetler, B. D.

1972-01-01

86

Probabilistic analysis of tsunami hazards  

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Determining the likelihood of a disaster is a key component of any comprehensive hazard assessment. This is particularly true for tsunamis, even though most tsunami hazard assessments have in the past relied on scenario or deterministic type models. We discuss probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) from the standpoint of integrating computational methods with empirical analysis of past tsunami runup. PTHA is derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), with the main difference being that PTHA must account for far-field sources. The computational methods rely on numerical tsunami propagation models rather than empirical attenuation relationships as in PSHA in determining ground motions. Because a number of source parameters affect local tsunami runup height, PTHA can become complex and computationally intensive. Empirical analysis can function in one of two ways, depending on the length and completeness of the tsunami catalog. For site-specific studies where there is sufficient tsunami runup data available, hazard curves can primarily be derived from empirical analysis, with computational methods used to highlight deficiencies in the tsunami catalog. For region-wide analyses and sites where there are little to no tsunami data, a computationally based method such as Monte Carlo simulation is the primary method to establish tsunami hazards. Two case studies that describe how computational and empirical methods can be integrated are presented for Acapulco, Mexico (site-specific) and the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline (region-wide analysis).

Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.

2006-01-01

87

Probability-Based Design Criteria of the ASCE 7 Tsunami Loads and Effects Provisions (Invited)  

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Mitigation of tsunami risk requires a combination of emergency preparedness for evacuation in addition to providing structural resilience of critical facilities, infrastructure, and key resources necessary for immediate response and economic and social recovery. Critical facilities would include emergency response, medical, tsunami refuges and shelters, ports and harbors, lifelines, transportation, telecommunications, power, financial institutions, and major industrial/commercial facilities. The Tsunami Loads and Effects Subcommittee of the ASCE/SEI 7 Standards Committee is developing a proposed new Chapter 6 - Tsunami Loads and Effects for the 2016 edition of the ASCE 7 Standard. ASCE 7 provides the minimum design loads and requirements for structures subject to building codes such as the International Building Code utilized in the USA. In this paper we will provide a review emphasizing the intent of these new code provisions and explain the design methodology. The ASCE 7 provisions for Tsunami Loads and Effects enables a set of analysis and design methodologies that are consistent with performance-based engineering based on probabilistic criteria. . The ASCE 7 Tsunami Loads and Effects chapter will be initially applicable only to the states of Alaska, Washington, Oregon, California, and Hawaii. Ground shaking effects and subsidence from a preceding local offshore Maximum Considered Earthquake will also be considered prior to tsunami arrival for Alaska and states in the Pacific Northwest regions governed by nearby offshore subduction earthquakes. For national tsunami design provisions to achieve a consistent reliability standard of structural performance for community resilience, a new generation of tsunami inundation hazard maps for design is required. The lesson of recent tsunami is that historical records alone do not provide a sufficient measure of the potential heights of future tsunamis. Engineering design must consider the occurrence of events greater than scenarios in the historical record, and should properly be based on the underlying seismicity of subduction zones. Therefore, Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) consistent with source seismicity must be performed in addition to consideration of historical event scenarios. A method of Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis has been established that is generally consistent with Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis in the treatment of uncertainty. These new tsunami design zone maps will define the coastal zones where structures of greater importance would be designed for tsunami resistance and community resilience. Structural member acceptability criteria will be based on performance objectives for a 2,500-year Maximum Considered Tsunami. The approach developed by the ASCE Tsunami Loads and Effects Subcommittee of the ASCE 7 Standard would result in the first national unification of tsunami hazard criteria for design codes reflecting the modern approach of Performance-Based Engineering.

Chock, G.

2013-12-01

88

On the moroccan tsunami catalogue  

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Full Text Available A primary tool for regional tsunami hazard assessment is a reliable historical and instrumental catalogue of events. Morocco by its geographical situation, with two marine sides, stretching along the Atlantic coast to the west and along the Mediterranean coast to the north, is the country of Western Africa most exposed to the risk of tsunamis. Previous information on tsunami events affecting Morocco are included in the Iberian and/or the Mediterranean lists of tsunami events, as it is the case of the European GITEC Tsunami Catalogue, but there is a need to organize this information in a dataset and to assess the likelihood of claimed historical tsunamis in Morocco. Due to the fact that Moroccan sources are scarce, this compilation rely on historical documentation from neighbouring countries (Portugal and Spain and so the compatibility between the new tsunami catalogue presented here and those that correspond to the same source areas is also discussed.

F. Kaabouben

2009-07-01

89

Economics of Tsunami Mitigation in the Pacific Northwest  

Science.gov (United States)

The death total in a major Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) tsunami may be comparable to the Tohoku tsunami - tens of thousands. To date, tsunami risk reduction activities have been almost exclusively hazard mapping and evacuation planning. Reducing deaths in locations where evacuation to high ground is impossible in the short time between ground shaking and arrival of tsunamis requires measures such as vertical evacuation facilities or engineered pathways to safe ground. Yet, very few, if any, such tsunami mitigation projects have been done. In contrast, many tornado safe room and earthquake mitigation projects driven entirely or in largely by life safety have been done with costs in the billions of dollars. The absence of tsunami mitigation measures results from the belief that tsunamis are too infrequent and the costs too high to justify life safety mitigation measures. A simple analysis based on return periods, death rates, and the geographic distribution of high risk areas for these hazards demonstrates that this belief is incorrect: well-engineered tsunami mitigation projects are more cost-effective with higher benefit-cost ratios than almost all tornado or earthquake mitigation projects. Goldfinger's paleoseismic studies of CSZ turbidites indicate return periods for major CSZ tsunamis of about 250-500 years (USGS Prof. Paper 1661-F in press). Tsunami return periods are comparable to those for major earthquakes at a given location in high seismic areas and are much shorter than those for tornados at any location which range from >4,000 to >16,000 years for >EF2 and >EF4 tornadoes, respectively. The average earthquake death rate in the US over the past 100-years is about 1/year, or about 30/year including the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. The average death rate for tornadoes is about 90/year. For CSZ tsunamis, the estimated average death rate ranges from about 20/year (10,000 every 500 years) to 80/year (20,000 every 250 years). Thus, the long term deaths rates from tsunamis, earthquakes and tornadoes are comparable. High hazard areas for tornadoes and earthquakes cover ~40% and ~15% of the contiguous US, ~1,250,000 and ~500,000 square miles, respectively. In marked contrast, tsunami life safety risk is concentrated in communities with significant populations in areas where evacuation to high ground is impossible: probably tsunami life safety mitigation projects. Consider a tsunami life safety project which saves an average of one life per year (500 lives per 500 years). Using FEMA's value of human life (5.8 million), 7% discount rate and a 50-year project useful lifetime, the net present value of avoided deaths is 80 million. Thus, the benefit-cost ratio would be about 16 or about 80 for tsunami mitigation projects which cost 5 million or 1 million, respectively. These rough calculations indicate that tsunami mitigation projects in high risk locations are economically justified. More importantly, these results indicate that national and local priorities for natural hazard mitigation should be reconsidered, with tsunami mitigation given a very high priority.

Goettel, K. A.; Rizzo, A.; Sigrist, D.; Bernard, E. N.

2011-12-01

90

MULTIPLE LAYER IDENTIFICATION AND TRANSPORTATION PATTERN ANALYSIS FOR ONSHORE TSUNAMI DEPOSIT AS THE EXTENDING TSUNAMI DATA – A CASE STUDY FROM THE THAI ANDAMAN COAST  

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Full Text Available On 26thDecember 2004, a strong Indian Ocean earthquake of moment magnitude 9 generated a deadly tsunami that hit the west coast of southern Thailand and many coastal nations of the Indian Ocean. Two tsunami-affected areas on the Thai Andaman coast (Ao Kheuy beach and Khuk Khak beach were investigated. Multiple sediment layers in the tsunami deposits are identified and are analyzed. The sediment transportation patterns are also determined. Tsunami deposits consist of graded sand layers overlying the pre-existing soil. The particle size profile of the tsunami sediment and the plot of grain-size standard deviation with depth are used to identify major layers in tsunami deposit. There are three major sediment layers in the tsunami deposit in the study areas. They reflect three depositional sequences created by three tsunami run-ups. The mean grain-size of tsunami deposit and the results of sediment trend analysis show that the tsunami deposit is generally fining upwards and landwards. Each major sediment layer is created by sediments settled from suspension in a set of run-up and backwash. The percentage by weight of sediment settled from suspension during the backwash is small when it is compared to the percentage by weight of sediment settled from suspension during the run-up. The 1stdepositional sequence has higher quantity of coarse grain particles than the following depositional sequences. At a mild slope shore face, sediments are transported and deposited on land far from their origins. The number of major sediment layers in tsunami deposit can be used as the extending data for reconstructing individual tsunami run-up by using numerical and/or simple models.

Jean-Frank Wagner

2009-01-01

91

Coordinating Post-Tsunami Field Surveys in the us  

Science.gov (United States)

Post-tsunami scientific field surveys are critical for improving the understanding of tsunamis and developing tools and programs to mitigate their effects. After a destructive tsunami, international, national, and local tsunami scientists need to gather information, much of which is perishable or degrades significantly with time. An influx of researchers can put stress on countries already overwhelmed by humanitarian response to the disaster and by the demands of emergency management and other support agencies. In the United States, in addition to university research scientists, government agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the U.S. Geologic Survey (USGS), and state/territorial emergency management agencies and geological surveys endeavor to collect physical and social science data to better understand the physics of tsunamis and the impact they have on coastal communities and ecosystems. After a Presidential Major Disaster Declaration, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Joint Field Office works with state/territory emergency management agencies to coordinate response to disasters. In the short-term, the collection and immediate sharing of data enable decision-making that better organizes and deploys often-limited resources to the areas most critically in need of response; and in the long-term, improves recovery planning that will mitigate the losses from the next tsunami. Recent tsunamis have emphasized the need for improved coordination of data collection among scientists and federal, state, and local emergency managers. Improved coordination will ensure data collection efforts are carried out in a safe, secure, efficient, and timely manner. To improve coordination of activities that will better integrate the scientific investigations with government response, the US National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program and Pacific Risk Management 'Ohana (PRiMO) are working together to develop a consistent framework for a tsunami technical clearinghouse (TTC). The goals of the TTC, which would include at a minimum an electronic information server but could also include a physical location, are to: 1) assist in the response to, damage assessment of, and early recovery from the natural disaster; 2) facilitate researcher access to the affected areas; and 3) contribute to the capture of valuable and perishable data. The Working Group, composed of representatives from NOAA, USGS, FEMA, and state and local emergency managers and geoscientists, will engage with other stakeholders and the science community to review existing national standard operating procedures for post-tsunami scientific field surveys and data collection, as well as make recommendations for domestic application. The outcomes are intended to propose a national structure that can be consistently implemented within each state and territory.

Kong, L. S.; Chiesa, C.; Dunbar, P. K.; Huart, J.; Richards, K.; Shulters, M.; Stein, A.; Tamura, G.; Wilson, R. I.; Young, E.

2011-12-01

92

A Framework for the Probabilistic Analysis of Tsunami Hazards  

Science.gov (United States)

A framework for analysis of tsunami hazards is proposed that is based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), though with some important modifications. PSHA is a convenient methodology to adopt for the analysis of tsunami hazards in part because, for most regions in the United States, seismic source model specifications have been developed through the U.S. Geological Survey's National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project. The two main modifications to PSHA that are needed are (1) incorporation of far-field sources (i.e., distant earthquakes) that can generate damaging tsunamis and (2) a numerical hazard model (i.e., runup and inundation in tsunami hazard analysis) rather than an empirical model (i.e., ground motion in seismic hazard analysis). An important step in the development of probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is the definition of uncertainties. For local tsunamis, variation in slip distribution patterns is a significant source of uncertainty that is inherently unpredictable (i.e., an aleatory uncertainty). Stochastic source models can be used in PTHA to estimate the range of possible nearshore tsunami amplitudes for a given magnitude and rupture geometry. Other important sources of uncertainty for local tsunami generated by subduction zone earthquakes include occurrence of secondary faulting near the trench, and triggered submarine and coastal landslides. For distant tsunamis, in addition to the fundamental tsunami source parameters of seismic moment and epicentral distance, source radiation pattern and propagation raypath are important factors in hazard calculations. Tsunami propagation from both local and distant sources is also sensitive to nearshore variations in bathymetry (which itself maybe a source of epistemic uncertainty) that is analogous to site response in PSHA. In contrast to past method for forecasting tsunami hazards, a PSHA-based method permits incorporation of uncertainties into the probabilistic forecast. PTHA as outlined in this study is compared to log-frequency/maximum runup height curves derived from historical data that were used in the past, especially in light of new probability analyses of complex systems. An important final consideration for PTHA is how probabilistic results are formatted and presented to different end-user communities.

Geist, E. L.

2003-12-01

93

A review of tsunami simulation activities for NPPs safety  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The tsunami generated on December 26, 2004 due to Sumatra earthquake of magnitude 9.3 resulted in inundation at the various coastal sites of India. The site selection and design of Indian nuclear power plants demand the evaluation of run up and the structural barriers for the coastal plants: Besides it is also desirable to evaluate the early warning system for tsunamigenic earthquakes. The tsunamis originate from submarine faults, underwater volcanic activities, sub-aerial landslides impinging on the sea and submarine landslides. In case of a submarine earthquake-induced tsunami the wave is generated in the fluid domain due to displacement of the seabed. There are three phases of tsunami: generation, propagation, and run-up. Reactor Safety Division (RSD) of Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC), Trombay has initiated computational simulation for all the three phases of tsunami source generation, its propagation and finally run up evaluation for the protection of public life, property and various industrial infrastructures located on the coastal regions of India. These studies could be effectively utilized for design and implementation of early warning system for coastal region of the country apart from catering to the needs of Indian nuclear installations. This paper presents some results of tsunami waves based on finite difference numerical approaches with shallow water wave theory. The present paper evaluate the results of various simulation i.e. Single fault Sumatra model, four and five fault Sumatra Model, Nias insignificant tsunami and also some parametric studies results for tsunami waring system scenario generation. A study is carried for the tsunami due to Sumatra earthquake in 2004 with TUNAMI-N2 software. Bathymetry data available from the National Geophysical Data Center was used for this study. The single fault and detailed four and five fault data were used to calculate sea surface deformations which were subsequently used as initial conditions for Sumatra 2004 tsunami propagation simulation. The paper also presents a hypothetical study by assuming the earthquake rupture on northern fault only as compared to complete (northern and southern) rupture segment and the resulting tsunami propagation scenario. All of the studies provide the results in terms of wave heights and compare them with the reported simulation, satellite observation and field observed reported data. The paper includes the parametric studies on the possible fault line for Sumatra fault line for support for early tsunami warning. The various other events i.e Java, Nias, Makaran, Andaman etc are also discussed in the paper. (author)

94

THE FRENCH TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN AND NORTHEAST ATLANTIC: CENALT  

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Full Text Available CENALT (CENtre d’ALerte aux Tsunamis is responsible for the French National Tsunami Warning Centre (NTWC. The CENALT is established in the framework of the Unesco/IOC/ICG/NEAMTWS. Its objective is to transmit a warning message in less than fifteen minutes for any events that could trigger a tsunami in the Western Mediterranean Sea and the North- Eastern Atlantic Ocean. The data collected from French installations and from institutions of European and North African countries is processed with software that permits early epicenter location of seismic events and measurements of expected tsunami impacts on the shore. On-duty analysts revise interactively all the generated information and use references of historical tsunami and earthquake databases - as well as computed tsunami scenarios – in order to disseminate the more comprehensive message possible.

H. Hébert

2013-01-01

95

Speeding up tsunami wave propagation modeling  

Science.gov (United States)

Trans-oceanic wave propagation is one of the most time/CPU consuming parts of the tsunami modeling process. The so-called Method Of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) software package, developed at PMEL NOAA USA (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA), is widely used to evaluate the tsunami parameters. However, it takes time to simulate trans-ocean wave propagation, that is up to 5 hours CPU time to "drive" the wave from Chili (epicenter) to the coast of Japan (even using a rather coarse computational mesh). Accurate wave height prediction requires fine meshes which leads to dramatic increase in time for simulation. Computation time is among the critical parameter as it takes only about 20 minutes for tsunami wave to approach the coast of Japan after earthquake at Japan trench or Sagami trench (as it was after the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011). MOST solves numerically the hyperbolic system for three unknown functions, namely velocity vector and wave height (shallow water approximation). The system could be split into two independent systems by orthogonal directions (splitting method). Each system can be treated independently. This calculation scheme is well suited for SIMD architecture and GPUs as well. We performed adaptation of MOST package to GPU. Several numerical tests showed 40x performance gain for NVIDIA Tesla C2050 GPU vs. single core of Intel i7 processor. Results of numerical experiments were compared with other available simulation data. Calculation results, obtained at GPU, differ from the reference ones by 10^-3 cm of the wave height simulating 24 hours wave propagation. This allows us to speak about possibility to develop real-time system for evaluating tsunami danger.

Lavrentyev, Mikhail; Romanenko, Alexey

2014-05-01

96

Tsunami: Un problema matemáticamente interesante / Tsunami: An interesting mathematical problema  

Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

Full Text Available SciELO Costa Rica | Language: Spanish Abstract in spanish Se presentan algunos aspectos fundamentales respecto a la matemática y la herramienta computacional que apoyan la compleja descripción del proceso físico tsunami desde dos enfoques específicos. En particular, se aborda analíticamente un modelo hidroelástico simple para el problema de generación de o [...] ndas tsunami, el cual permite obtener resultados en el área de ruptura. Por otra parte, el proceso de propagación de las ondas tsunami en el océano y el impacto a lo largo de la línea costera se analiza numéricamente utilizando el enfoque hidrodinámico, presentando en particular una aplicación directa sobre la predicción de tsunamis en México producidos por sismos potenciales en la trinchera Mesoamericana mediante el diseño de un “Módulo Sintetizador de Tsunamis” para simular tsunamis originados por sismos ocurridos en la zona de subducción de la costa occidental de México. Abstract in english We present some key aspects regarding the mathematics and the computational tool that support the complex description of the physical process tsunami from two specific approaches. In particular, it addresses analytically a simple hydroelastic model for the problem of tsunami wave generation, which p [...] rovides results in the rupture area. Moreover, the propagation of tsunami waves in the ocean and the impact along the coastline is analyzed numerically using the hydrodynamic approach, presenting in particular a direct application to the prediction of tsunamis in Mexico caused by potential earthquakes in the Mesoamerican trench through the design of a “Tsunami Toolbox” to simulate tsunamis caused by earthquakes in the subduction zone on the western coast of Mexico.

Rodrigo, González González; Modesto, Ortiz Figueroa; José Miguel, Montoya Rodríguez.

2012-01-01

97

Tsunami: Un problema matemáticamente interesante / Tsunami: An interesting mathematical problema  

Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

Full Text Available SciELO Costa Rica | Language: Spanish Abstract in spanish Se presentan algunos aspectos fundamentales respecto a la matemática y la herramienta computacional que apoyan la compleja descripción del proceso físico tsunami desde dos enfoques específicos. En particular, se aborda analíticamente un modelo hidroelástico simple para el problema de generación de o [...] ndas tsunami, el cual permite obtener resultados en el área de ruptura. Por otra parte, el proceso de propagación de las ondas tsunami en el océano y el impacto a lo largo de la línea costera se analiza numéricamente utilizando el enfoque hidrodinámico, presentando en particular una aplicación directa sobre la predicción de tsunamis en México producidos por sismos potenciales en la trinchera Mesoamericana mediante el diseño de un “Módulo Sintetizador de Tsunamis” para simular tsunamis originados por sismos ocurridos en la zona de subducción de la costa occidental de México. Abstract in english We present some key aspects regarding the mathematics and the computational tool that support the complex description of the physical process tsunami from two specific approaches. In particular, it addresses analytically a simple hydroelastic model for the problem of tsunami wave generation, which p [...] rovides results in the rupture area. Moreover, the propagation of tsunami waves in the ocean and the impact along the coastline is analyzed numerically using the hydrodynamic approach, presenting in particular a direct application to the prediction of tsunamis in Mexico caused by potential earthquakes in the Mesoamerican trench through the design of a “Tsunami Toolbox” to simulate tsunamis caused by earthquakes in the subduction zone on the western coast of Mexico.

Rodrigo, González González; Modesto, Ortiz Figueroa; José Miguel, Montoya Rodríguez.

98

Improving tsunami resiliency: California's Tsunami Policy Working Group  

Science.gov (United States)

California has established a Tsunami Policy Working Group to facilitate development of policy recommendations for tsunami hazard mitigation. The Tsunami Policy Working Group brings together government and industry specialists from diverse fields including tsunami, seismic, and flood hazards, local and regional planning, structural engineering, natural hazard policy, and coastal engineering. The group is acting on findings from two parallel efforts: The USGS SAFRR Tsunami Scenario project, a comprehensive impact analysis of a large credible tsunami originating from an M 9.1 earthquake in the Aleutian Islands Subduction Zone striking California’s coastline, and the State’s Tsunami Preparedness and Hazard Mitigation Program. The unique dual-track approach provides a comprehensive assessment of vulnerability and risk within which the policy group can identify gaps and issues in current tsunami hazard mitigation and risk reduction, make recommendations that will help eliminate these impediments, and provide advice that will assist development and implementation of effective tsunami hazard risk communication products to improve community resiliency.

Real, Charles R.; Johnson, Laurie; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie

2014-01-01

99

Modeling and Visualization of Tsunamis  

Science.gov (United States)

Modeling tsunami wave propagation is a very challenging numerical task, because it involves many facets: Such as the formation of various types of waves and the impingement of these waves on the coast. We will discuss the different levels of approximations made in numerical modeling of 2-D and 3-D tsunami waves and their relative difficulties. In this paper new attempts are proposed to evaluate the hazards of tsunami’s and visualization of large-scale numerical results generated from tsunami simulations. Specialized low-level computer language, based on a parallel computing environment, is also employed here for generating FORTRAN source code for finite elements. This code can then be run very efficiently in parallel on distributed computing systems. We will also discuss the need to study tsunami waves with modern software and visualization hardware.

Zhang, Huai; Shi, Yaolin; Yuen, David A.; Yan, Zhenzhen; Yuan, Xiaoru; Zhang, Chaofan

2008-04-01

100

Online Dispute Resolution (ODR within Developing Nations: A Qualitative Evaluation of Transfer and Impact  

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Full Text Available The field of online dispute resolution (ODR is developing both as practice and a profession. Evidence of this includes a growing community of scholars and practitioners. A Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA grant permitted 16 practitioners from developing countries to attend the 2008 ODR Forum in Victoria, British Columbia. In the year following the Forum, an evaluation was conducted to identify changes among these practitioners’ behaviors, knowledge, skills, abilities and credibility. Results indicate that ODR practitioners in developing countries are engaged in a wide range of activities, many of which are technologically and logistically complex. These practitioners also face a number of political and infrastructural challenges that are not as commonly experienced by those from developed nations. Taken together, these realities have implications both for the nature of ODR’s proliferation as a legitimate practice, as well as for the provision of education and training concerning its underpinnings.

Doug Leigh

2014-01-01

 
 
 
 
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Tsunami Tallinna lahel / Vivika Veski  

Index Scriptorium Estoniae

Tallinna Tehnikaülikooli Küberneetika Instituudis tehtav mere- ja rannikuteaduse alane töö on pälvinud rahvusvahelist tähelepanu. Tallinna laht võib anda maailmale vastuse, kuidas kaitsta end tsunami eest

Veski, Vivika

2008-01-01

102

Science of Tsunami Forecasting: 2010 Chilean Tsunami Challenge  

Science.gov (United States)

Tsunami forecasting with real-time models and real-time data has always been one of the main goals of tsunami research. The February 27th, 2010 Chile tsunami provided the challenge and the opportunity to test the modern state of the science in tsunami forecasting. By contrast with the previous basin-wide tsunami generated by the third largest 2004 Sumatra earthquake, the fifth largest Chilean earthquake occurred at the time and in the area where a variety of real-time measurements and model forecast models have been available to assess the generated tsunami in real-time. The Chile tsunami was generated by a Mw 8.8 earthquake (35.846S, 72.719W ), at 06:34 UTC, 115 km (60 miles) NNE of Concepcion, Chile (according to the USGS). It has been recorded at coastal sea level gages around the Pacific Ocean, staring from the near-field record that caught the wave half an hour after generation at Valparaiso, to the coastal recordings of the wave arrived at Japan and Russian Far East almost a day later. In approximately 3 hours after the earthquake, the tsunami was first recorded at DART buoy 32412, providing real-time deep ocean signature of the propagating tsunami. All that measurements provided ample data for the real-time forecast analysis and for the model performance and forecast skills assessment throughout the Pacific basin. We present results of the performance of the NOAA forecast. The forecast method uses MOST model with the data assimilated from the earthquake and deep-ocean tsunami DART measurement. The comparison with tide gages and coastal impacts provide opportunity to assess the accuracy and efficiency of the forecast. The successes, lessons learned and future challengers for the tsunami forecast science are discussed.

Titov, Vasily; Bernard, Eddie; Tang, Rachel; Wei, Yong; Uslu, Burak; Eble, Marie

2010-05-01

103

A qualitative analysis of exemplary elementary science teachers' use and practice of the National Science Education Teaching Standards  

Science.gov (United States)

The dissertation's purpose was to document and discuss what 10 elementary science teachers, deemed exemplary by administrators, do in the science classroom to reflect the National Science Education Teaching Standards. To make implications for teacher education this report also explored these teachers' science professional development backgrounds. A qualitative triangulated approach of surveys, interviews and observations was used to document actualities, of what theorists have proposed should take place in a standards-based elementary science classroom. Several behavior patterns were identified among these exemplary teachers and their students. These teachers organized for collaborative and individual responsibility; planned according to the needs and interests of their students; encouraged scientific discourse and decision making among their students; facilitated the scientific inquiry process with hands-on, higher-order activities; and used alternative assessment strategies. They were involved in collaboration with peers in planning, training, and decision malting at the school, district, state, and national levels. Exposure to professional development and experience were identified as having the greatest influence on these exemplary teachers. During science lessons taught by these teachers, students were observed in high degrees of cooperation and collaboration with peers while engaging in higher-order discourse and process inquiry, regardless of their academic or social levels. Implications for science teachers' professional development are made, as are suggestions for future research in this area.

Pittman, Margaret Evans

104

Tsunami Risk in the NE Atlantic: Pilot Study for Algarve Portugal and Applications for future TWS  

Science.gov (United States)

Tsunami risk assessment is an essential component of any Tsunami Early Warning System due to its significant contribution to the disaster reduction by providing valuable information that serve as basis for mitigation preparedness and strategies. Generally, risk assessment combines the outputs of the hazard and the vulnerability assessment for considered exposed elements. In the NE Atlantic region, the tsunami hazard is relatively well established through compilation of tsunami historical events, evaluation of tsunamigenic sources and impact computations for site-specific coastal areas. While, tsunami vulnerability remains poorly investigated in spite of some few studies that focused on limited coastal areas of the Gulf of Cadiz region. This work seeks to present a pilot study for tsunami risk assessment that covers about 170 km of coasts of Algarve region, south of Portugal. This area of high coastal occupation and touristic activities was strongly impacted by the 1755 tsunami event as reported in various historical documents. An approach based upon a combination of tsunami hazard and vulnerability is developed in order to take into account the dynamic aspect of tsunami risk in the region that depends on the variation of hazard and vulnerability of exposed elements from a coastal point to other. Hazard study is based upon the consideration of most credible earthquake scenarios and the derivation of hazard maps through hydrodynamic modeling of inundation and tsunami arrival time. The vulnerability assessment is performed by: i) the analysis of the occupation and the population density, ii) derivation of evacuation maps and safe shelters, and iii) the analysis of population response and evacuation times. Different risk levels ranging from "low" to "high" are assigned to the coats of the studied area. Variation of human tsunami risk between the high and low touristic seasons is also considered in this study and aims to produce different tsunami risk-related scenarios. Results are presented in terms of thematic maps and GIS layers highlighting information on inundation depths and limits, evacuation plans and safe shelters, tsunami vulnerability, evacuation times and tsunami risk levels. Results can be used for national and regional tsunami disaster management and planning. This work is funded by TRIDEC (Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises) FP7, EU project and by MAREMOTI (Mareograph and field tsunami observations, modeling and vulnerability studies for Northeast Atlantic and western Mediterranean) French project. Keywords: Tsunami, Algarve-Portugal, Evacuation, Vulnerability, Risk

Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.; Catita, C.; Carrilho, F.; Matias, L.

2012-04-01

105

Late improvements of Chile tsunami warning system  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The instrumentation for the tide stations has been improved with the replacement of the old Ballauf Standard tide gauge by the bubbler type in 15 locations besides the installation of five Handar Data Collection Platforms (DCP) provided by U.S.NOAA. The existing seismic network is still far from having a good coverage of the country; however, four short period seismometers have been installed lately around the Iquique seismic gap (Latitude 20 deg. S), linked to the Geophysics Institute Office in Santiago, and the two THRUST seismic triggers are in operation at Iquique and Valparaiso ports. Communications with the National Emergency Office has been improved with a HF transmitter which permits linking with all the Regional Emergency Offices along the country. The Standard Operations Plan in Case of Tsunami has been tested in a tsunami simulation exercise, where some problems arised between different emergency agencies; a revision of the Plan has been adopted. (author). 6 figs

106

Modélisation mathématique des tsunamis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Cette thèse est consacrée à la modélisation des tsunamis. La vie de ces vagues peut être conditionnellement divisée en trois parties: génération, propagation et inondation. Dans un premier temps, nous nous intéressons à la génération de ces vagues extrêmes. Dans cette partie du mémoire, nous examinons les différentes approches existantes pour la modélisation, puis nous en proposons d'autres. La conclusion principale à laquelle nous sommes arrivés est que le couplage entre la...

Dutykh, Denys

2007-01-01

107

The Tsunami challenge  

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Full Text Available Many lives could have been saved on 26 December 2004, when the tsunami unleashed by an earthquake of magnitude 9.0 off the coast of the Indonesian island Sumatra struck a dozen coastal villages along the Indian Ocean. Those lives could have been saved if, on that day, science communication had not resulted in a complete failure to communicate scientific information adequately in many cases, in different places and at different levels.

Greco Pietro

2005-03-01

108

Quantifying Tsunami Impact on Structures  

Science.gov (United States)

Tsunami impact is usually assessed through inundation simulations and maps which provide estimates of coastal flooding zones based on "credible worst case" scenarios. Earlier maps relied on one-dimensional computations, but two-dimensional computations are now employed routinely. In some cases, the maps do not represent flooding from any particular scenario event, but present an inundation line that reflects the worst inundation at this particular location among a range of scenario events. Current practice in tsunami resistant design relies on estimates of tsunami impact forces derived from empirical relationships that have been borrowed from riverine flooding calculations, which involve only inundation elevations. We examine this practice critically. Recent computational advances allow for calculation of additional parameters from scenario events such as the detailed distributions of tsunami currents and fluid accelerations, and this suggests that alternative and more comprehensive expressions for calculating tsunami impact and tsunami forces should be examined. We do so, using model output for multiple inundation simulations of Seaside, Oregon, as part of a pilot project to develop probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment methodologies for incorporation into FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps. We consider three different methods, compare the results with existing methodology for estimating forces and impact, and discuss the implications of these methodologies for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment.

Yalciner, A. C.; Kanoglu, U.; Titov, V.; Gonzalez, F.; Synolakis, C. E.

2004-12-01

109

A CRITICAL REVIEW AND EVALUATION OF APPLYING SEMI-VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUNDS (SVOCS AS A GEOCHEMICAL TRACER TO INDICATE TSUNAMI BACKWASH: The Bilateral, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG and National Research Council of Thailand (NRCT Funded Project “Tsunami Deposits in Near-Shore- and Coastal Waters of Thailand (TUNWAT”  

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Full Text Available Tsunamis symbolize one of the most harmful natural disasters for low-lying coastal zones and their residents, due to both its destructive power and irregularity. The 2004 Boxing Day tsunami, which attack the Andaman Sea coast of Thailand, resulted 5,395 of deaths and inestimable casualties, interrupted economies and social well-being in numerous coastal villages and caused in extreme alterations of both onshore and offshore coastal morphology. The Great Indian Ocean tsunami also highlighted that there are many missing jigsaw puzzle pieces in scientific knowledge, starting from the generating of tsunamis offshore to the countless influences to the marine ecosystems on the continental shelf, coastal areas and on land and to the economic and social systems consequences. As with all deposits that do not have a direct physical link to their causative sources, marine tsunami deposits must be distinguished from other deposits through regional correlation, dating and criteria for recognition within the deposits themselves. This study aims to provide comprehensive reviews on using Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs as a chemical proxy to discriminate tsunami relateddeposits from typical marine sediments. The advantages and disadvantages of this chemical tracer will be critically reviewed and further discussed.

Siwatt Pongpiachan

2013-10-01

110

TSUNAMI INFORMATION SOURCES - PART 4  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available I have expanded substantially my list of information sources on: tsunami generation (sources, impulsive mechanisms, propagation, effects of nearshore bathymetry, and wave run-up on shore - including physical (hydraulic modeling and numerical modeling. This expanded list includes the subjects of field investigations of tsunamis soon after an event; damage effects in harbors on boats, ships, and facilities; tsunami wave-induced forces; damage by tsunami waves to structures on shore; scour/erosion; hazard mitigation; land use planning; zoning; siting, design, construction and maintenance of structures and infrastructure; public awareness and education; distant and local sources; tsunami warning and evacuation programs; tsunami probability and risk criteria. A few references are on "sedimentary signatures" useful in the study of historic and prehistoric tsunamis (paleo-tsunamis. In addition to references specifically on tsunamis, there are references on long water wave and solitary wave theory; wave refraction, diffraction, and reflection; shelf and basin free and forced oscillations (bay and harbor response; seiches; edge waves; Mach- reflection of long water waves ("stem waves"; wave run-up on shore; energy dissipation. All are important in understanding tsunamis, and in hazard mitigation. References are given on subaerial and submarine landslide (and rockfall generated waves in reservoirs, fjords, bays, and ocean; volcano explosive eruptions/collapse; underwater and surface explosions; asteroid impact. This report is in two parts: 1 Bibliographies, books and pamphlets, catalogs, collections, journals and newsletters, maps, organizations, proceedings, videos and photos; 2 Articles, papers, reports listed alphabetically by author.Many papers on the Indian Ocean (Sumatra tsunami of 26 December 2004, were given at the 22nd IUGG International Tsunami Symposium, Chania, Crete, 27-29 June 2005, but had not been published at the date of this report. For the program, see http://www.gein.noa.gr/English/tsunamis.htmThis list of tsunami information sources (115 pp, about 3,300 entries is also available on a diskette, at the Water Resources Center Archives, 410 O'Brien Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720-1718. Most of the publications are available in the Water Resources Center Archives or the Earth Sciences Library, University of California, Berkeley, CA.I wish to acknowledge my appreciation of the great help of the staff of the Water Resources Center Archives in finding some difficult to obtain publications; in particular Paul S. Atwood for his help for those on websites and other computer sources. I want to thank John M. Wiegel for his continuous help in searching for sources on websites via computer search-engines.

Robert L. Wiegel

2006-01-01

111

Tsunami Warning Criteria for Cascadia events based on Tsunami models  

Science.gov (United States)

Initial tsunami warning, advisory, and watch zones for potential Cascadia earthquakes have been revised based on maximum expected threat for tsunamis generated by earthquakes in this region. Presently, alert zones are initially based on travel time for earthquakes greater than magnitude 7.8 with all areas less than three hours away from the source being put into a tsunami warning. The impact of this change is to reduce the length of coastline which is immediately put it into a warning status. Tsunami Warning Centers often delineate initial tsunami alert zones based on pre-set criteria dependent on earthquake magnitude, location, depth, and tsunami travel time. In many cases, this approach can lead to over-warning. Over the last several years, the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) has attempted to refine the amount of coastline immediately placed in a warning status based on maximum expected threat instead of travel time. Tsunami forecast models used to predict impacts during events (for example, Alaska Tsunami Forecast Model (ATFM), Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis (SIFT), and Rapid Inundation Forecasting of Tsunamis (RIFT)) can also be used a-priori to delineate zones at-risk for specified source zones. forecast models have proven reasonably accurate during recent events. For the Cascadia Subduction zone, several rupture scenarios ranging from magnitude 7.9 to 9.2, were computed. Forecasted wave heights at various points are then used to set the initial Warning/Watch/Advisory regions. This procedure is more efficient than a blanket warning - or a refined warning based on travel times - as appropriate threat levels are assigned based on expected impact. For example, after a magnitude 8.7 earthquake in the southern Cascadia Subduction zone, southern and most of central California can be left out of the warning zone and placed in an advisory, as none of this region contains expected impacts in the warning threshold (tsunami amplitude over 1m). Under previous criteria, these zones would have been placed in a warning. Several examples are shown which help refine criteria used by the Tsunami Warning Center during hypothetical Cascadia events.

Huang, P. Y.; Nyland, D. L.; Knight, W.; Gately, K.; Hale, D.; Urban, G.; Waddell, J.; Carrick, J.; Popham, C.; Bahng, B.; Kim, Y.; Burgy, M.; Langley, S.; Preller, C. C.; Whitmore, P.

2013-12-01

112

Tsunami flood modelling for Aceh & west Sumatra and its application for an early warning system  

Science.gov (United States)

SummaryFor implementation of a regional Tsunami Early Warning System (EWS) in Sumatra island in Indonesia, a set of detailed and accurate tsunami propagation and flooding models using Delft3D were developed. The purpose of the models was not only to reproduce the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but also to determine tsunami flood hazard maps with different return periods. The model outputs have then been used to build a tsunami flooding database covering 1250 hypothetical sources for different earthquake parameters along the Sunda Trench for an EWS called RiskMap. The model simulations produced detailed information of near-shore tsunami wave height, tsunami inundation length and run-up. Smart storage of computational results, in a geo-referenced database, allows quick access to the requisite information. The result is a system capable of issuing a warning within few minutes after a detection of an earthquake. The system has been successfully installed and tested in the last two years at national and regional emergency coordination centres, National Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) and at Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Research Centre (TDMRC) in Banda Aceh.

Van Veen, B. A. D.; Vatvani, D.; Zijl, F.

2014-05-01

113

Healthy Universities: current activity and future directions--findings and reflections from a national-level qualitative research study.  

Science.gov (United States)

This qualitative study used questionnaires to scope and explore 'healthy universities' activity taking place within English higher education institutions (HEIs). The findings revealed a wealth of health-related activity and confirmed growing interest in the healthy universities approach--reflecting an increasing recognition that investment for health within the sector will contribute not only to health targets but also to mainstream agendas such as staff and student recruitment, experience and retention; and institutional and societal productivity and sustainability. However, they also suggested that, while there is growing understanding of the need for a comprehensive whole system approach to improving health within higher education settings, there are a number of very real challenges--including a lack of rigorous evaluation, the difficulty of integrating health into a 'non-health' sector and the complexity of securing sustainable cultural change. Noting that health and well-being remain largely marginal to the core mission and organization of higher education, the article goes on to reflect on the wider implications for future research and policy at national and international levels. Within England, whereas there are Healthy Schools and Healthy Further Education Programmes, there is as yet no government-endorsed programme for universities. Similarly, at an international level, there has been no systematic investment in higher education mirroring the comprehensive and multifaceted Health Promoting Schools Programme. Key issues highlighted are: securing funding for evaluative research within and across HEIs to enable the development of a more robust evidence base for the approach; advocating for an English National Healthy Higher Education Programme that can help to build consistency across the entire spectrum of education; and exploring with the World Health Organization (WHO) and the International Union for Health Promotion and Education (IUHPE) the feasibility of developing an international programme. PMID:21495435

Dooris, Mark; Doherty, Sharon

2010-09-01

114

Transient Tsunamis in Lakes  

Science.gov (United States)

A large number of lakes are surrounded by steep and unstable mountains with slopes prone to failure. As a result, landslides are likely to occur and impact water sitting in closed reservoirs. These rare geological phenomena pose serious threats to dam reservoirs and nearshore facilities because they can generate unexpectedly large tsunami waves. In fact, the tallest wave experienced by contemporary humans occurred because of a landslide in the narrow bay of Lituya in 1958, and five years later, a deadly landslide tsunami overtopped Lake Vajont's dam, flooding and damaging villages along the lakefront and in the Piave valley. If unstable slopes and potential slides are detected ahead of time, inundation maps can be drawn to help people know the risks, and mitigate the destructive power of the ensuing waves. These maps give the maximum wave runup height along the lake's vertical and sloping boundaries, and can be obtained by numerical simulations. Keeping track of the moving shorelines along beaches is challenging in classical Eulerian formulations because the horizontal extent of the fluid domain can change over time. As a result, assuming a solid slide and nonbreaking waves, here we develop a nonlinear shallow-water model equation in the Lagrangian framework to address the problem of transient landslide-tsunamis. In this manner, the shorelines' three-dimensional motion is part of the solution. The model equation is hyperbolic and can be solved numerically by finite differences. Here, a 4th order Runge-Kutta method and a compact finite-difference scheme are implemented to integrate in time and spatially discretize the forced shallow-water equation in Lagrangian coordinates. The formulation is applied to different lake and slide geometries to better understand the effects of the lake's finite lengths and slide's forcing mechanism on the generated wavefield. Specifically, for a slide moving down a plane beach, we show that edge-waves trapped by the shoreline and free-waves moving away from it coexist. On an open coast, these two types of waves would never interact, but because of the lake's finite dimensions, here we show that local inundation height maxima are due to wave superposition on the shoreline. These interactions can be dramatic near the lake's corners. For instance, in a rectangular lake delimited by two opposite and plane beaches and two vertical walls, we find that a landslide tsunami results in an inundation height at a corner 50% larger than anywhere else. The nonlinear and linear models produce different inundation maps, and here we show that maximum wave runups can be increased by up to 56% when nonlinear terms are included.

Couston, L.; Mei, C.; Alam, M.

2013-12-01

115

Survey of existing tsunami warning centers - Present status, results of work, plans for future development  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The Tsunami Warning System of the Pacific exists as an example of participatory coordination between ICG/ITSU member nations throughout the Pacific Basin. The involvement and participation by many nations has continued to result in significant improvements in the TWS. Although recent operational improvements at PTWC have resulted in the provision of enhanced tsunami warning services, even greater improvements are anticipated over the coming year as PTWC implements the improved automation technology provided by the Concurrent/Masscomp 6600 minicomputer, increased coverage for both seismic and sea level data, improved tsunami evaluation techniques, and increased participation by ICG/ITSU participants. 2 figs

116

Introducing CAT (Centro di Allerta Tsunami), the Italian candidate Tsunami Watch Provider (It-cTWP) for the Mediterranean  

Science.gov (United States)

The recently established CAT (Centro di Allerta Tsunami) at Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) will be part of the Italian National Tsunami Warning Center (It-NTWC) and it is a candidate Tsunami Watch Provider (cTWP) for the Mediterranean Sea in the framework of the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (NEAMTWS). It-NTWC is a partnership of three Italian institutions: INGV, the Italian Department of Civil Protection (Dipartimento di Protezione Civile, DPC) and the Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale, ISPRA) which provides the sea-level data of the Italian mareographic network (Rete Mareografica Nazionale, RMN) in quasi-real-time. CAT is the operational part of the It-NTWC based at the INGV 24/7 seismic monitoring centre in Rome. CAT will be committed to deliver tsunami warning messages to DPC and, when it will enter its operational cTWP phase, to any IOC/UNESCO member state that will subscribe for the service. The current implementation of CAT is based on the NEAMTWS Decision Matrix (DM). Earthquake parameters are determined automatically by the Early-Est (EE) software, and used as an input to DM and tsunami travel times calculation to provide warning messages, including earthquake parameters, plus level of alert and estimated tsunami arrival time at pre-defined forecast points along threatened coasts. Basing on updated automatic EE solutions, seismologist's revision, and sea-level readings subsequent messages can be delivered until warning status ends. The use of the DM allows a rapid implementation of a tsunami warning system, but it does not consider some important features to better characterize a tsunami forecast, such as the earthquake's focal mechanism, the directivity of tsunami propagation and the morphology of the coast. More sophisticated procedures are currently under development: a database of pre-calculated, or calculated on the fly on GPU cards, tsunami scenarios, and rapid moment tensor calculation. The deployment of deep-sea tsunami (pressure) sensors is envisaged as well subject to budgetary constraints. A Decision Support System (DSS) is under development in order to integrate the different sources of information (earthquake parameters estimates and prior knowledge of the tectonic setting, numerical tsunami forecast, sea-level readings), and assist decision making during the first minutes after an event. CAT participated successfully in several NEAM communication tests within its function of National Tsunami Warning Focal Point (NTWFP) and the delivery of messages to DPC, ISPRA, and local authorities has also been tested. Preliminary CAT procedures have been tested internally, that is without delivering messages, also for two recent Mediterranean earthquakes: the M=6.6 occurred the 12th October 2013 offshore Crete and the M=5.9 occurred the 28th December 2013 offshore between Turkey and Cyprus. Here, we will present the current CAT implementation and describe its future developments.

Michelini, Alberto; Amato, Alessandro; Badiali, Lucio; Basili, Roberto; Bernardi, Fabrizio; Govoni, Aladino; Lauciani, Valentino; Lomax, Anthony; Lorito, Stefano; Mele, Francesco; Melini, Daniele; Molinari, Irene; Piatanesi, Alessio; Romano, Fabrizio; Selva, Jacopo; Selvaggi, Giulio; Sensale, Giampaolo; Tonini, Roberto; Vazzoler, Stefano; Zanolin, Francesco

2014-05-01

117

Tsunami Inundation Mapping and Hazard Risk Assessment for Alaska Coastal Communities.  

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Tsunami waves are a real threat for many Alaska coastal locations, and community preparedness plays an important role in saving lives and property. The Geophysical Institute of the University of Alaska Fairbanks and the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys collaborated with the Alaska Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management in forming the Alaska Tsunami Mapping Team (ATMT). This group of researches participates in the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program by evaluating and mapping potential tsunami inundation of selected coastal communities in Alaska. The communities are chosen on the basis of location, infrastructure, availability of bathymetric and topographic data, and willingness for a community to use results for hazard mitigation. ATMT develops hypothetical tsunami scenarios that are based on the parameters of potential underwater earthquakes and landslides for a specified coastal community. Then, we perform model simulations for each of the source scenarios. Numerical results and historical observations are combined in order to develop a worst case scenario. ATMT delivers the modeling results to the community for local tsunami hazard planning and construction of evacuation maps. Inundation maps are completed for three communities on Kodiak Island, and two communities in Kachemak Bay. The work is under way for Seward and Sitka. Seward, a community in the Prince William Sound area, suffered an extensive damage and 12 fatalities during the 1964 tsunami. The 1964 Good Friday earthquake induced submarine landsliding in deltaic sediments underlying Seward. Sitka, a community in South-Eastern Alaska, is vulnerable to far-field tsunamis from the Gulf of Alaska, as well as to locally landslide-generated tsunamis. We address the problem of predicting runup of tsunami waves by solving nonlinear shallow-water equations with a finite-difference method. Embedded grids of different resolution are employed to increase spatial resolution in the shelf area. Numerical simulations yield runup heights, extent of maximum inundation for chosen tsunami scenarios, depths of inundation on dry land, and maximum velocity current distribution in inundation zones.

Suleimani, E.; Hansen, R.; Combellick, R.

2005-12-01

118

Disturbances in VLF signal caused by tsunami  

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One of the few experimental techniques which can monitor perturbations of the ionization within the lower ionosphere uses long-wave (i.e., VLF and LF) probing. Here we present the first measurements of the response of the lower ionosphere driven by tsunamis caused by the November 15, 2006 (Kuril region) and the March 11, 2011 (Tohoku region) earthquakes. We used data from VLF receiver stations in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky (PTK) and Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk (YSH) in Russia. To analyze the VLF signal variations observed after the first earthquake the subionospheric NPM - PTK path was used because it lies along the propagation direction of the tsunami. The signal propagating along this path exhibited a significant decrease in amplitude during nighttime observations together with phase variations. To study the case of the Tohoku earthquake we employed data from two receivers: Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky and Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk. This tsunami propagated approximately along the Hawaii - Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk path. Analysis showed that the signals received at both stations are very similar except for those from NPM transmitter which show large differences in comparison to the other transmitters. For this particular pair of propagation paths the signal recorded in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky traveled along an undisturbed path whereas that measured at Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk clearly showed an anomalous decrease in amplitude together with an increase in phase. The wavelet spectrograms of the data revealed the frequency of the maximum spectral amplitude in the range of periods of 8-30 min which corresponds to the internal gravity wave periods. These periods are in compliance with the periods observed in data recorded by the DART sensor buoys. A qualitative interpretation of the observed effects was suggested in terms of the interaction of internal gravity waves with lower ionosphere.

Levin, Boris; Solovieva, Maria; Rozhnoi, Alexander; Shalimov, Sergei; Hayakawa, Masashi; Hobara, Yasuhide

2013-04-01

119

Emergency management response to a warning-level Alaska-source tsunami impacting California: Chapter J in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario  

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This chapter is directed towards two audiences: Firstly, it targets nonemergency management readers, providing them with insight on the process and challenges facing emergency managers in responding to tsunami Warning, particularly given this “short fuse” scenario. It is called “short fuse” because there is only a 5.5-hour window following the earthquake before arrival of the tsunami within which to evaluate the threat, disseminate alert and warning messages, and respond. This action initiates a period when crisis communication is of paramount importance. An additional dynamic that is important to note is that within 15 minutes of the earthquake, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) will issue alert bulletins for the entire Pacific Coast. This is one-half the time actually presented by recent tsunamis from Japan, Chile, and Samoa. Second, the chapter provides emergency managers at all levels with insights into key considerations they may need to address in order to augment their existing plans and effectively respond to tsunami events. We look at emergency management response to the tsunami threat from three perspectives:“Top Down” (Threat analysis and Alert/Warning information from the Federal agency charged with Alert and Warning) “Bottom Up” (Emergency management’s Incident Command approach to responding to emergencies and disasters based on the needs of impacted local jurisdictions) “Across Time” (From the initiating earthquake event through emergency response) We focus on these questions: What are the government roles, relationships, and products that support Tsunami Alert and Warning dissemination? (Emergency Planning and Preparedness.) What roles, relationships, and products support emergency management response to Tsunami Warning and impact? (Engendering prudent public safety response.) What are the key emergency management activities, considerations, and challenges brought out by the SAFRR tsunami scenario? (Real emergencies) How do these activities, considerations, and challenges play out as the tsunami event unfolds across the “life” of the event? (Lessons)

Miller, Kevin M.; Long, Kate

2013-01-01

120

Exploring tsunamis with non-traditional dataset: array recordings from temporary ocean-bottom seismic experiment  

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We observe clear tsunami signals generated by the July 15, 2009 magnitude 7.8 Dusky Sound (Fiordland) New Zealand earthquake on seafloor differential pressure gauges (DPGs). The dataset was collected during the ocean-bottom seismic experiment, Marine Observations of Anisotropy Near Aotearoa (MOANA). This experiment deployed 30 broadband ocean-bottom seismometers (Trillium 240) and differential pressure gauges (DPGs) for a year (2009/01-2010/02) both in deep ocean (greater than 4000 m water depth) and on the continental shelf (550 m to 1300 m) offshore of the South Island of New Zealand. The DPGs are used in many US National Ocean Bottom Seismograph Instrument Pool (OBSIP) experiments and are designed to record seismic signals. In this study, we demonstrate that DPGs can effectively record open-ocean tsunami signals and the tsunami signals on DPG records can be used for tsunami studies. We carry out waveform and spectral analysis for DPG data recordings of the Fiordland tsunami event. The arrival times of tsunami signals on DPG recordings can be directly used to constrain tsunami wave propagation models. We calibrate the DPGs to obtain better control on the amplitude of the tsunami signals on the DPG records. Calibrations are done over frequency bands of both Rayleigh wave and tidal signals. Synthetic pressure waveforms are calculated to be compared with the DPG recorded signals.

Sheehan, A. F.; Yang, Z.; Nicolsky, D.; Mungov, G.; Eakins, B.

2011-12-01

 
 
 
 
121

Resource allocation within the National AIDS Control Program of Pakistan: a qualitative assessment of decision maker's opinions  

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Full Text Available Abstract Background Limited resources, whether public or private, demand prioritisation among competing needs to maximise productivity. With a substantial increase in the number of reported HIV cases, little work has been done to understand how resources have been distributed and what factors may have influenced allocation within the newly introduced Enhanced National AIDS Control Program of Pakistan. The objective of this study was to identify perceptions of decision makers about the process of resource allocation within Pakistan's Enhanced National AIDS Control Program. Methods A qualitative study was undertaken and in-depth interviews of decision makers at provincial and federal levels responsible to allocate resources within the program were conducted. Results HIV was not considered a priority issue by all study participants and external funding for the program was thought to have been accepted because of poor foreign currency reserves and donor agency influence rather than local need. Political influences from the federal government and donor agencies were thought to manipulate distribution of funds within the program. These influences were thought to occur despite the existence of a well-laid out procedure to determine allocation of public resources. Lack of collaboration among departments involved in decision making, a pervasive lack of technical expertise, paucity of information and an atmosphere of ad hoc decision making were thought to reduce resistance to external pressures. Conclusion Development of a unified program vision through a consultative process and advocacy is necessary to understand goals to be achieved, to enhance program ownership and develop consensus about how money and effort should be directed. Enhancing public sector expertise in planning and budgeting is essential not just for the program, but also to reduce reliance on external agencies for technical support. Strengthening available databases for effective decision making is required to make financial allocations based on real, rather than perceived needs. With a large part of HIV program funding dedicated to public-private partnerships, it becomes imperative to develop public sector capacity to administer contracts, coordinate and monitor activities of the non-governmental sector.

Kadir Masood

2007-01-01

122

TSUNAMI HAZARD IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA  

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Full Text Available Based on LANDSAT ETM and Digital Elevation Model (DEM data derived by the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM, 2000 of the coastal areas of Northern Venezuela were investigated in order to detect traces of earlier tsunami events. Digital image processing methods used to enhance LANDSAT ETM imageries and to produce morphometric maps (such as hillshade, slope, minimum and maximum curvature maps based on the SRTM DEM data contribute to the detection of morphologic traces that might be related to catastrophic tsunami events. These maps combined with various geodata such as seismotectonic data in a GIS environment allow the delineation of coastal regions with potential tsunami risk. The LANDSAT ETM imageries merged with digitally processed and enhanced SRTM data clearly indicate areas that might be prone by flooding in case of catastrophic tsunami events.

B. Theilen-Willige

2006-01-01

123

Satellites, Tsunamis, and Early Warnings  

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Pan Ocean Remote Sensing Conference (PORSEC) Special Workshop on Tsunamis, Busan, South Korea, 1 November 2006 In the early morning of 26 December 2004 the ocean research satellite Jason flew over the Indian Ocean and recorded a surface tsunami wave less than 1 meter high. If it was no more than chance that a satellite equipped with a sensitive radar passed over at that precise moment, then the potential role of orbiting spacecraft in future early warning systems was established.

Allan, T. D.

2007-08-01

124

Validation of NEOWAVE with Measurements from the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami  

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An accurate and reliable numerical model is essential in mapping tsunami hazards for mitigation and preparedness. The model NEOWAVE (Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVEs) is being used for tsunami inundation mapping in Hawaii, American Samoa, the Gulf coast states, and Puerto Rico. In addition to the benchmarks established by the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, we have been conducting a thorough investigation of NEOWAVE's capability in reproducing the 2011 Tohoku tsunami and its impact across the Pacific. The shock-capturing non-hydrostatic model is well suited to handle tsunami conditions in a variety of coastal environments in the near and far field. It describes dispersive waves through non-hydrostatic pressure and vertical velocity, which also account for tsunami generation from time histories of seafloor deformation. The semi-implicit, staggered finite difference model captures flow discontinuities associated with bores or hydraulic jumps through a momentum conservation scheme. The model supports up to five levels of two-way nested grids in spherical coordinates to describe tsunami processes of varying time and spatial scales from the open ocean to the coast. We first define the source mechanism through forward modeling of the near-field tsunami recorded by coastal and deep-ocean buoys. A finite-fault solution based on teleseismic P-wave inversion serves as the starting point of the iterative process, in which the source parameters are systematically adjusted to achieve convergence of the computed tsunami with the near-field records. The capability of NEOWAVE in modeling propagation of the tsunami is evaluated with DART data across the Pacific as well as water-level and current measurements in Hawaii. These far-field water-level records, which are not considered in the forward modeling, also provide an independently assessment of the source model. The computed runup and inundation are compared with measurements along Northeastern Japan coasts and the Hawaiian Island chain. These coastlines include shallow embayments with open plains, narrow estuaries with steep cliffs, and volcanic insular slopes with fringing reefs for full validation of the model in a single event. The Tohoku tsunami caused persistent oscillations and hazardous currents in coastal waters around Hawaii. Analysis of the computed surface elevation reveals complex resonance modes along the Hawaiian Island chain. Standing waves with period 16 min or shorter are able to form a series of nodes and antinodes over the reefs that results in strong currents and large drawdown responsible for the damage in harbors and marinas. The results provide insights into effects of fringing reefs, which are present along 70% of Hawaii's coastlines, on tsunami transformation and runup processes. The case study improves our understanding on tsunamis in tropical island environments and validates the modeling capability to predict their impacts for hazard mitigation and emergency management.

Cheung, K.; Yamazaki, Y.

2012-12-01

125

Tsunami risk mapping simulation for Malaysia  

Science.gov (United States)

The 26 December 2004 Andaman mega tsunami killed about a quarter of a million people worldwide. Since then several significant tsunamis have recurred in this region, including the most recent 25 October 2010 Mentawai tsunami. These tsunamis grimly remind us of the devastating destruction that a tsunami might inflict on the affected coastal communities. There is evidence that tsunamis of similar or higher magnitudes might occur again in the near future in this region. Of particular concern to Malaysia are tsunamigenic earthquakes occurring along the northern part of the Sunda Trench. Further, the Manila Trench in the South China Sea has been identified as another source of potential tsunamigenic earthquakes that might trigger large tsunamis. To protect coastal communities that might be affected by future tsunamis, an effective early warning system must be properly installed and maintained to provide adequate time for residents to be evacuated from risk zones. Affected communities must be prepared and educated in advance regarding tsunami risk zones, evacuation routes as well as an effective evacuation procedure that must be taken during a tsunami occurrence. For these purposes, tsunami risk zones must be identified and classified according to the levels of risk simulated. This paper presents an analysis of tsunami simulations for the South China Sea and the Andaman Sea for the purpose of developing a tsunami risk zone classification map for Malaysia based upon simulated maximum wave heights. ?? 2011 WIT Press.

Teh, S.Y.; Koh, H.-L.; Moh, Y.T.; De Angelis, D. L.; Jiang, J.

2011-01-01

126

Integrating Caribbean Seismic and Tsunami Hazard into Public Policy and Action  

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The Caribbean has a long history of tsunamis and earthquakes. Over the past 500 years, more than 80 tsunamis have been documented in the region by the NOAA National Geophysical Data Center. Almost 90% of all these historical tsunamis have been associated with earthquakes. Just since 1842, 3510 lives have been lost to tsunamis; this is more than in the Northeastern Pacific for the same time period. With a population of almost 160 million and a heavy concentration of residents, tourists, businesses and critical infrastructure along the Caribbean shores (especially in the northern and eastern Caribbean), the risk to lives and livelihoods is greater than ever before. Most of the countries also have a very high exposure to earthquakes. Given the elevated vulnerability, it is imperative that government officials take steps to mitigate the potentially devastating effects of these events. Nevertheless, given the low frequency of high impact earthquakes and tsunamis, in comparison to hurricanes, combined with social and economic considerations, the needed investments are not made and disasters like the 2010 Haiti earthquake occur. In the absence of frequent significant events, an important driving force for public officials to take action, is the dissemination of scientific studies. When papers of this nature have been published and media advisories issued, public officials demonstrate heightened interest in the topic which in turn can lead to increased legislation and funding efforts. This is especially the case if the material can be easily understood by the stakeholders and there is a local contact. In addition, given the close link between earthquakes and tsunamis, in Puerto Rico alone, 50% of the high impact earthquakes have also generated destructive tsunamis, it is very important that earthquake and tsunami hazards studies demonstrate consistency. Traditionally in the region, earthquake and tsunami impacts have been considered independently in the emergency planning processes. For example, earthquake and tsunami exercises are conducted separately, without taking into consideration the compounding effects. Recognizing this deficiency, the UNESCO IOC Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (CARIBE EWS) which was established in 2005, decided to include the tsunami and earthquake impacts for the upcoming March 20, 2013 regional CARIBE WAVE/LANTEX tsunami exercise. In addition to the tsunami wave heights predicted by the National Weather Service Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii, the USGS PAGER and SHAKE MAP results for the M8.5 scenario earthquake in the southern Caribbean were also integrated into the manual. Additionally, in recent catastrophic planning for Puerto Rico, FEMA did request the local researchers to determine both the earthquake and tsunami impacts for the same source. In the US, despite that the lead for earthquakes and tsunamis lies within two different agencies, USGS and NOAA/NWS, it has been very beneficial that the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program partnership includes both agencies. By working together, the seismic and tsunami communities can achieve an even better understanding of the hazards, but also foster more actions on behalf of government officials and the populations at risk.

von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.

2012-12-01

127

Vulnerability Analysis of Buildings Exposed to the Tohoku Tsunami and Implications for Use of Multi-Story Buildings for Tsunami Vertical Evacuation  

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Fluid and impact loads and scouring from tsunami inundation creates substantial collapse risk for coastal buildings. An April 2011 survey after the Tohoku Tsunami led by the principal author investigated cases of structural failures, successes and near failures. During the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami, aerial and land-based video cameras captured the inundation at numerous locations along the Tohoku coastline of Japan. Tsunami flow depths and velocities were determined based on analysis of video records and the effects on simple benchmark structures in the flow path. Detailed field measurements and material samples were used to verify critical dimensions and properties of structures. A subsequent National Science Foundation-sponsored survey captured even more detailed LiDAR data of selected structures which was used to validate structural deformations from the structural analysis. The ASCE Structural Engineering Institute will be incorporating tsunami design provisions in the next update of the national load standard, ASCE 7-2016, Minimum Design Loads for Buildings and Other Structures. We will present several relevant case studies of full-scale tsunami loads on structures used to evaluate design provisions being considered for these provisions. The first two authors are also working on the performance-based tsunami design criteria, where a building's performance objective for design is based on the role it plays in the community. Drawing on findings from research and post-tsunami building vulnerability analyses, the authors will discuss how these findings are informing the direction of the forthcoming ASCE 7-2016 chapter on Tsunami Loads and Effects that will be the first national tsunami design provisions applicable for all US states with Pacific Ocean coastlines. During the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami, many thousands of people were saved by taking shelter in multi-story reinforced concrete buildings after the tsunami warning was issued. The first two authors visited a number of these structures that were inundated in the tsunami, and incorporated these lessons in updated provisions for the second edition of FEMA P646, Guidelines for Design of Structures for Vertical Evacuation from Tsunamis (2012). The significant changes to these revised guidelines for new, specially designed and constructed facilities will be explained. Regardless of whether or not a multi-story building is designated as a tsunami evacuation refuge, a sufficiently robust and tall building may offer significant basic life safety protection to occupants. Therefore, with the emergence of new guidelines and code standards, and with expertise in evaluating particular modes of structural failures caused during a tsunami, it will be feasible to design buildings to withstand tsunami events. This is desirable for taller buildings that may serve as refuges, taller buildings that may not be easily evacuated, buildings whose failure may pose a substantial risk to human life, and essential facilities that by necessity of function may exist in the inundated coastal zone.

Chock, G.; Robertson, I.; Carden, L.

2012-12-01

128

Google Earth Views of Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis Pilot Study, Seaside, Oregon  

Science.gov (United States)

Virtual globes such as Google Earth provide immediate geographic context for research data for coastal hazard planning. We present Google Earth views of data from a Tsunami Pilot Study conducted within and near Seaside and Gearhart, Oregon, as part of FEMA's Flood Insurance Rate Map Modernization Program (Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group, 2006). Two goals of the pilot study were to develop probabilistic 100- year and 500-year tsunami inundation maps using Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) and to provide recommendations for improved tsunami hazard assessment guidelines. The Seaside area was chosen because it is typical of many coastal communities along the Cascadia subduction zone that extends from Cape Mendocino, California, to the Strait of Juan de Fuca, Washington. State and local stakeholders also expressed considerable interest in mapping the tsunami threat to this area. The study was an interagency effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Geological Survey, and FEMA, in collaboration with the University of Southern California, Middle East Technical University, Portland State University, Horning Geoscience, Northwest Hydraulics Consultants, and the Oregon Department of Geological and Mineral Industries. The pilot study report will be augmented by a separate geographic information systems (GIS) data publication that provides model data and results. In addition to traditional GIS data formats, Google Earth kmz files are available to provide rapid visualization of the data against the rich base map provided by the interface. The data include verbal and geologic observations of historic tsunami events, newly constructed DEMs, historic shorelines, earthquake sources, models of tsunami wave heights, and maps of the estimated 100- and 500-year probabilistic floods. Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group, 2006, Seaside, Oregon Tsunami Pilot Study - Modernization of FEMA Flood Hazard Maps: U.S. Geological Survey Open-file Report 2006-1234, http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2006/1234/.

Wong, F. L.; Venturato, A. J.; Geist, E. L.

2006-12-01

129

Tsunami Warning Center in Turkey : Status Update 2012  

Science.gov (United States)

This is an update to EGU2011-3094 informing on the progress of the establishment of a National Tsunami Warning Center in Turkey (NTWC-TR) under the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission - Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (IOC-ICG/NEAMTWS) initiative. NTWC-TR is integrated into the 24/7 operational National Earthquake Monitoring Center (NEMC) of KOERI comprising 129 BB and 61 strong motion sensors. Based on an agreement with the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (DEMP), data from 10 BB stations located in the Aegean and Mediterranean Coast is now transmitted in real time to KOERI. Real-time data transmission from 6 primary and 10 auxiliary stations from the International Monitoring System will be in place in the very near future based on an agreement concluded with the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) in 2011. In an agreement with a major Turkish GSM company, KOERI is enlarging its strong-motion network to promote real-time seismology and to extend Earthquake Early Warning system countrywide. 25 accelerometers (included in the number given above) have been purchased and installed at Base Transceiver Station Sites in coastal regions within the scope of this initiative. Data from 3 tide gauge stations operated by General Command of Mapping (GCM) is being transmitted to KOERI via satellite connection and the aim is to integrate all tide-gauge stations operated by GCM into NTWC-TR. A collaborative agreement has been signed with the European Commission - Joint Research Centre (EC-JRC) and MOD1 Tsunami Scenario Database and TAT (Tsunami Analysis Tool) are received by KOERI and user training was provided. The database and the tool are linked to SeisComp3 and currently operational. In addition KOERI is continuing the work towards providing contributions to JRC in order to develop an improved database (MOD2), and also continuing work related to the development of its own scenario database using NAMI DANCE Tsunami Simulation and Visualization Software. Further improvement of the Tsunami Warning System at the NTWC-TR will be accomplished through KOERI's participation in the FP-7 Project TRIDEC focusing on new technologies for real-time intelligent earth information management to be used in Tsunami Early Warning Systems. In cooperation with Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS), KOERI has its own GTS system now and connected to GTS via its own satellite hub. The system has been successfully utilized during the First Enlarged Communication Test Exercise (NEAMTWS/ECTE1), where KOERI acted as the message provider. KOERI is providing guidance and assistance to a working group established within the DEMP on issues such as Communication and Tsunami Exercises, National Procedures and National Tsunami Response Plan. KOERI is also participating in NEAMTIC (North-Eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean Tsunami Information Centre) Project. Finally, during the 8th Session of NEAMTWS in November 2011, KOERI has announced that NTWC-TR is operational as of January 2012 covering Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean, Marmara and Black Seas and KOERI is also ready to operate as an Interim Candidate Tsunami Watch Provider.

Meral Ozel, N.; Necmioglu, O.; Yalciner, A. C.; Kalafat, D.; Yilmazer, M.; Comoglu, M.; Sanli, U.; Gurbuz, C.; Erdik, M.

2012-04-01

130

Statistical Analysis of Tsunami Variability  

Science.gov (United States)

The purpose of this paper was to investigate statistical variability of seismically generated tsunami impact. The specific goal of the work was to evaluate the variability in tsunami wave run-up due to uncertainty in fault rupture parameters (source effects) and to the effects of local bathymetry at an individual location (site effects). This knowledge is critical to development of methodologies for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment. Two types of variability were considered: • Inter-event; • Intra-event. Generally, inter-event variability refers to the differences of tsunami run-up at a given location for a number of different earthquake events. The focus of the current study was to evaluate the variability of tsunami run-up at a given point for a given magnitude earthquake. In this case, the variability is expected to arise from lack of knowledge regarding the specific details of the fault rupture "source" parameters. As sufficient field observations are not available to resolve this question, numerical modelling was used to generate run-up data. A scenario magnitude 8 earthquake in the Hellenic Arc was modelled. This is similar to the event thought to have caused the infamous 1303 tsunami. The tsunami wave run-up was computed at 4020 locations along the Egyptian coast between longitudes 28.7° E and 33.8° E. Specific source parameters (e.g. fault rupture length and displacement) were varied, and the effects on wave height were determined. A Monte Carlo approach considering the statistical distribution of the underlying parameters was used to evaluate the variability in wave height at locations along the coast. The results were evaluated in terms of the coefficient of variation of the simulated wave run-up (standard deviation divided by mean value) for each location. The coefficient of variation along the coast was between 0.14 and 3.11, with an average value of 0.67. The variation was higher in areas of irregular coast. This level of variability is similar to that seen in ground motion attenuation correlations used for seismic hazard assessment. The second issue was intra-event variability. This refers to the differences in tsunami wave run-up along a section of coast during a single event. Intra-event variability investigated directly considering field observations. The tsunami events used in the statistical evaluation were selected on the basis of the completeness and reliability of the available data. Tsunami considered for the analysis included the recent and well surveyed tsunami of Boxing Day 2004 (Great Indian Ocean Tsunami), Java 2006, Okushiri 1993, Kocaeli 1999, Messina 1908 and a case study of several historic events in Hawaii. Basic statistical analysis was performed on the field observations from these tsunamis. For events with very wide survey regions, the run-up heights have been grouped in order to maintain a homogeneous distance from the source. Where more than one survey was available for a given event, the original datasets were maintained separately to avoid combination of non-homogeneous data. The observed run-up measurements were used to evaluate the minimum, maximum, average, standard deviation and coefficient of variation for each data set. The minimum coefficient of variation was 0.12 measured for the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami at Nias Island (7 data) while the maximum is 0.98 for the Okushiri 1993 event (93 data). The average coefficient of variation is of the order of 0.45.

Zolezzi, Francesca; Del Giudice, Tania; Traverso, Chiara; Valfrè, Giulio; Poggi, Pamela; Parker, Eric J.

2010-05-01

131

Spatiotemporal distributions of tsunami sources and discovered periodicities  

Science.gov (United States)

Both spatial and spatiotemporal distributions of the sources of tsunamigenic earthquakes of tectonic origin over the last 112 years have been analyzed. This analysis has been made using tsunami databases published by the Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics (Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (United States), as well as earthquake catalogs published by the National Earthquake Information Center (United States). It has been found that the pronounced activation of seismic processes and an increase in the total energy of tsunamigenic earthquakes were observed at the beginning of both the 20th (1905-1920) and 21st (2004-2011) centuries. Studying the spatiotemporal periodicity of such events on the basis of an analysis of the two-dimensional distributions of the sources of tectonic tsunamis has made it possible to determine localized latitudinal zones with a total lack of such events (90°-75° N, 45°-90° S, and 35°-25° N) and regions with a periodic occurrence of tsunamis mainly within the middle (65°-35° N and 25°-40° S) and subequatorial (15° N-20° S) latitudes of the Northern and Southern hemispheres. The objective of this work is to analyze the spatiotemporal distributions of sources of tsunamigenic earthquakes and the effect of the periodic occurrence of such events on the basis of data taken from global tsunami catalogs.

Levin, B. W.; Sasorova, E. V.

2014-09-01

132

Disseminated aspergillosis associated with tsunami lung.  

Science.gov (United States)

Many survivors of the tsunami that occurred following the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011, contracted a systemic disorder called "tsunami lung," a series of severe systemic infections following aspiration pneumonia caused by near drowning in the tsunami. Generally, the cause of aspiration pneumonia is polymicrobial, including fungi and aerobic and anaerobic bacteria, but Aspergillus infection is rarely reported. Here we report a case of tsunami lung complicated by disseminated aspergillosis, as diagnosed during autopsy. PMID:22417634

Kawakami, Yutaka; Tagami, Takashi; Kusakabe, Takashi; Kido, Norihiro; Kawaguchi, Takanori; Omura, Mariko; Tosa, Ryoichi

2012-10-01

133

Study of Tsunamis by Dimensional Analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Tsunamis are among the most terrifying natural hazards known to man and have been responsible for tre-mendous loss of life and property throughout history. In this paper by means of dimensional analysis, important non-dimensional groups in Tsunamis was studied and an equation to calculate the power of tsunamis was obtained. Also by this method and using tsunami basic physics, the height of waves near the coastline was estimated and results were compared by reported values.

S. Ghasemi

2011-09-01

134

Water level ingest, archive and processing system - an integral part of NOAA's tsunami database  

Science.gov (United States)

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and collocated World Data Service for Geophysics (WDS) provides long-term archive, data management, and access to national and global tsunami data. Archive responsibilities include the NOAA Global Historical Tsunami event and runup database, damage photos, as well as other related hazards data. Beginning in 2008, NGDC was given the responsibility of archiving, processing and distributing all tsunami and hazards-related water level data collected from NOAA observational networks in a coordinated and consistent manner. These data include the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) data provided by the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), coastal-tide-gauge data from the National Ocean Service (NOS) network and tide-gauge data from the two National Weather Service (NWS) Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) regional networks. Taken together, this integrated archive supports tsunami forecast, warning, research, mitigation and education efforts of NOAA and the Nation. Due to the variety of the water level data, the automatic ingest system was redesigned, along with upgrading the inventory, archive and delivery capabilities based on modern digital data archiving practices. The data processing system was also upgraded and redesigned focusing on data quality assessment in an operational manner. This poster focuses on data availability highlighting the automation of all steps of data ingest, archive, processing and distribution. Examples are given from recent events such as the October 2012 hurricane Sandy, the Feb 06, 2013 Solomon Islands tsunami, and the June 13, 2013 meteotsunami along the U.S. East Coast.

McLean, S. J.; Mungov, G.; Dunbar, P. K.; Price, D. J.; Mccullough, H.

2013-12-01

135

Revision of the tsunami catalogue affecting Turkish coasts and surrounding regions  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The coasts of Turkey have been hit by tsunamis in the past. The first national earthquake-tsunami catalogues were compiled in the early 1980s while the most up-to-date tsunami catalogues are mainly the products of recent European projects. The EU projects GITEC and GITEC-TWO (Genesis and Impact of Tsunamis on the European Coasts and TRANSFER (Tsunami Risk ANd Strategies For the European Region have added important contributions in establishing and developing unified criteria for tsunami parameterisation, standards for the quality of the data, the data format and the database general architecture. On the basis of these new aspects and based on recent marine geophysical data, tsunamigenic earthquakes, tsunami intensities and their reliability have been revised. The current version of the database contains 134 events, most of which have affected the Turkish coasts seriously during the last 3500 years. The reliability index of 76 events was "probable" and "definite", so that they could be used for assessment of the risk along the Turkish coastal region and for implementation of prevention policies.

Y. Altinok

2011-02-01

136

Simulation Study on Tsunami Detection from Space Using GNSS-R  

Science.gov (United States)

The Sumatra earthquake of December 2004 was the second largest earthquake ever recorded by instruments and the following tsunami took more than 200,000 lives. The German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) commissioned the Helmholtz Association of National Research Centres (HGF) directly after the disaster with developing the German Indonesian tsunami early warning system (GITEWS) for the Indian Ocean. While this early warning system is being established concept studies and new technology developments using Global Navigation Satellite System reflectometry (GNSS-R) for tsunami detection from space have been initiated. This technique uses ocean reflected GNSS signals for sea surface altimetry. With a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) constellation of small satellites equipped with multi-frequency GNSS receivers densely spaced grids of sea surface heights could be established to detect tsunami waves within minutes. The simulation study analyzes the performance of various LEO satellite constellation scenarios with respect to tsunami detection time for two different tsunami events and with different GNSS-R concepts. Therefore, a reflection point calculation is combined with a tsunami wave propagation model. Different orbit heights, orbit inclinations and numbers of satellites are investigated. GPS, GLONASS and Galileo signals are used as signal source. The impact of signal elevation angle and altimetric accuracy on the detection performance is evaluated. It can be shown that only a large number of LEO satellites can monitor the sea surface with sufficient high resolution in space and time when a detection time of 5 to 15 minutes is needed.

Stosius, R.; Beyerle, G.; Helm, A.; Höchner, A.; Rothacher, M.

2009-04-01

137

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment: the Seaside, Oregon Pilot Study  

Science.gov (United States)

A pilot study of Seaside, Oregon is underway, to develop methodologies for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments that can be incorporated into Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) developed by FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Current NFIP guidelines for tsunami hazard assessment rely on the science, technology and methodologies developed in the 1970s; although generally regarded as groundbreaking and state-of-the-art for its time, this approach is now superseded by modern methods that reflect substantial advances in tsunami research achieved in the last two decades. In particular, post-1990 technical advances include: improvements in tsunami source specification; improved tsunami inundation models; better computational grids by virtue of improved bathymetric and topographic databases; a larger database of long-term paleoseismic and paleotsunami records and short-term, historical earthquake and tsunami records that can be exploited to develop improved probabilistic methodologies; better understanding of earthquake recurrence and probability models. The NOAA-led U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), in partnership with FEMA, USGS, NSF and Emergency Management and Geotechnical agencies of the five Pacific States, incorporates these advances into site-specific tsunami hazard assessments for coastal communities in Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington. NTHMP hazard assessment efforts currently focus on developing deterministic, "credible worst-case" scenarios that provide valuable guidance for hazard mitigation and emergency management. The NFIP focus, on the other hand, is on actuarial needs that require probabilistic hazard assessments such as those that characterize 100- and 500-year flooding events. There are clearly overlaps in NFIP and NTHMP objectives. NTHMP worst-case scenario assessments that include an estimated probability of occurrence could benefit the NFIP; NFIP probabilistic assessments of 100- and 500-yr events could benefit the NTHMP. The joint NFIP/NTHMP pilot study at Seaside, Oregon is organized into three closely related components: Probabilistic, Modeling, and Impact studies. Probabilistic studies (Geist, et al., this session) are led by the USGS and include the specification of near- and far-field seismic tsunami sources and their associated probabilities. Modeling studies (Titov, et al., this session) are led by NOAA and include the development and testing of a Seaside tsunami inundation model and an associated database of computed wave height and flow velocity fields. Impact studies (Synolakis, et al., this session) are led by USC and include the computation and analyses of indices for the categorization of hazard zones. The results of each component study will be integrated to produce a Seaside tsunami hazard map. This presentation will provide a brief overview of the project and an update on progress, while the above-referenced companion presentations will provide details on the methods used and the preliminary results obtained by each project component.

Gonzalez, F. I.; Geist, E. L.; Synolakis, C.; Titov, V. V.

2004-12-01

138

Towards a certification process for tsunami early warning systems  

Science.gov (United States)

The natural disaster of the Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 was followed by an information catastrophe. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages in a proven workflow. A second challenge stems from the main objective of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC) Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from individual sensors, to Warning Centers within their particular end-to-end Warning System Environments, and up to federated Systems of Tsunami Warning Systems has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CeGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already, being the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS). This activity is continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). TRIDEC focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application: The technical development is based on mature system architecture models and industry standards. The use of standards already applies to the operation of individual TRIDEC reference installations and their interlinking into an integrated service infrastructure for supranational warning services. This is a first step towards best practices and service lifecycles for Early Warning Centre IT service management, including Service Level Agreements (SLA) and Service Certification. While on a global scale the integration of TEWS progresses towards Systems of Systems (SoS), there is still an absence of accredited and reliable certifications for national TEWS or regional Tsunami Early Warning Systems of Systems (TEWSoS). Concepts for TEWS operations have already been published under the guidance of the IOC, and can now be complemented by the recent research advances concerning SoS architecture. Combined with feedback from the real world, such as the NEAMwave 2012 Tsunami exercise in the Mediterranean, this can serve as a starting point to formulate initial requirements for TEWS and TEWSoS certification: Certification activities will cover the establishment of new TEWS and TEWSoS, and also both maintenance and enhancement of existing TEWS/TEWSoS. While the IOC is expected to take a central role in the development of the certification strategy, it remains to be defined which bodies will actually conduct the certification process. Certification requirements and results are likely to become a valuable information source for various target groups, ranging from national policy decision makers, government agency planners, national and local government preparedness officials, TWC staff members, Disaster Responders, the media and the insurance industry.

Löwe, Peter; Wächter, Jochen; Hammitzsch, Martin

2013-04-01

139

Tsunami Source Specification for Southeast Alaska with Focus on Inundation Mapping and Hazard Risk Assessment in Sitka  

Science.gov (United States)

The Alaska Earthquake Information Center (AEIC) conducts tsunami inundation mapping for coastal communities in Alaska. This activity provides local emergency officials with tsunami hazard assessment and mitigation tools. At-risk communities are spread along several segments of the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone, with each segment having a unique seismic history and potential tsunami hazard. As a result, almost every community has a distinct set of potential tsunami sources that need to be considered in order to make a tsunami inundation map. Therefore, an important component of the inundation mapping effort is identification and specification of potential tsunami sources. We are creating tsunami inundation maps for Sitka, Alaska, in the scope of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. Tsunami potential from tectonic and submarine landslide sources must be evaluated in this case for comprehensive mapping of areas at risk for inundation. The community of Sitka, the former capital of Russian Alaska, is located in Southeast Alaska, on the west coast of Baranof Island, facing the Pacific Ocean. In this area of southern Alaska, the subduction of the Pacific plate beneath the North America plate becomes a transform boundary that continues down the coast as the Fairweather - Queen Charlotte (FW-QC) transform fault system. The Sitka segment of the FW-QC fault system ruptured in large strike-slip earthquakes in 1927 (Ms7.1) and in 1972 (Ms7.6). We numerically model the extent of inundation in Sitka due to tsunami waves generated from earthquake and landslide sources. Tsunami scenarios include a repeat of the tsunami triggered by the 1964 Great Alaska earthquake, repeat of the tsunami triggered by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, tsunami waves generated by a hypothetically extended 1964 rupture, a hypothetical Cascadia megathrust earthquake, and hypothetical earthquakes in the FW-QC fault system. Underwater landslide events off the continental shelf along the FW-QC fault zone are also considered as credible tsunamigenic scenarios. We perform simulations for each of the scenarios using AEIC's numerical model of tsunami propagation and runup, which was validated through a set of analytical benchmarks and tested against laboratory and field data. Results of numerical modeling combined with historical observations in the region will be delivered to local emergency management to be used in local tsunami hazard assessment, evacuation planning and public education.

Suleimani, E. N.; Nicolsky, D. J.; Hansen, R. A.

2012-12-01

140

Tsunami early warning and decision support  

Science.gov (United States)

An innovative newly developed modular and standards based Decision Support System (DSS) is presented which forms part of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS). The GITEWS project stems from the effort to implement an effective and efficient Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System for the coast of Indonesia facing the Sunda Arc along the islands of Sumatra, Java and Bali. The geological setting along an active continental margin which is very close to densely populated areas is a particularly difficult one to cope with, because potential tsunamis' travel times are thus inherently short. National policies require an initial warning to be issued within the first five minutes after an earthquake has occurred. There is an urgent requirement for an end-to-end solution where the decision support takes the entire warning chain into account. The system of choice is based on pre-computed scenario simulations and rule-based decision support which is delivered to the decision maker through a sophisticated graphical user interface (GUI) using information fusion and fast information aggregation to create situational awareness in the shortest time possible. The system also contains risk and vulnerability information which was designed with the far end of the warning chain in mind - it enables the decision maker to base his acceptance (or refusal) of the supported decision also on regionally differentiated risk and vulnerability information (see Strunz et al., 2010). While the system strives to provide a warning as quickly as possible, it is not in its proper responsibility to send and disseminate the warning to the recipients. The DSS only broadcasts its messages to a dissemination system (and possibly any other dissemination system) which is operated under the responsibility of BMKG - the meteorological, climatological and geophysical service of Indonesia - which also hosts the tsunami early warning center. The system is to be seen as one step towards the development of a "system of systems" enabling all countries around the Indian Ocean to have such early warning systems in place. It is within the responsibility of the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceonographic Commission (IOC) and in particular its Intergovernmental Coordinating Group (ICG) to coordinate and give recommendations for such a development. Therefore the Decision Support System presented here is designed to be modular, extensible and interoperable (Raape et al., 2010).

Steinmetz, T.; Raape, U.; Teßmann, S.; Strobl, C.; Friedemann, M.; Kukofka, T.; Riedlinger, T.; Mikusch, E.; Dech, S.

2010-09-01

 
 
 
 
141

Tsunami early warning and decision support  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available An innovative newly developed modular and standards based Decision Support System (DSS is presented which forms part of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS. The GITEWS project stems from the effort to implement an effective and efficient Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System for the coast of Indonesia facing the Sunda Arc along the islands of Sumatra, Java and Bali. The geological setting along an active continental margin which is very close to densely populated areas is a particularly difficult one to cope with, because potential tsunamis' travel times are thus inherently short. National policies require an initial warning to be issued within the first five minutes after an earthquake has occurred. There is an urgent requirement for an end-to-end solution where the decision support takes the entire warning chain into account. The system of choice is based on pre-computed scenario simulations and rule-based decision support which is delivered to the decision maker through a sophisticated graphical user interface (GUI using information fusion and fast information aggregation to create situational awareness in the shortest time possible. The system also contains risk and vulnerability information which was designed with the far end of the warning chain in mind – it enables the decision maker to base his acceptance (or refusal of the supported decision also on regionally differentiated risk and vulnerability information (see Strunz et al., 2010. While the system strives to provide a warning as quickly as possible, it is not in its proper responsibility to send and disseminate the warning to the recipients. The DSS only broadcasts its messages to a dissemination system (and possibly any other dissemination system which is operated under the responsibility of BMKG – the meteorological, climatological and geophysical service of Indonesia – which also hosts the tsunami early warning center. The system is to be seen as one step towards the development of a "system of systems" enabling all countries around the Indian Ocean to have such early warning systems in place. It is within the responsibility of the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceonographic Commission (IOC and in particular its Intergovernmental Coordinating Group (ICG to coordinate and give recommendations for such a development. Therefore the Decision Support System presented here is designed to be modular, extensible and interoperable (Raape et al., 2010.

T. Steinmetz

2010-09-01

142

The public health impact of tsunami disasters.  

Science.gov (United States)

Tsunamis have the potential to cause an enormous impact on the health of millions of people. During the last half of the twentieth century, more people were killed by tsunamis than by earthquakes. Most recently, a major emergency response operation has been underway in northeast Japan following a devastating tsunami triggered by the biggest earthquake on record in Japan. This natural disaster has been described as the most expensive in world history. There are few resources in the public health literature that describe the characteristics and epidemiology of tsunami-related disasters, as a whole. This article reviews the phenomenology and impact of tsunamis as a significant public health hazard. PMID:22338315

Keim, Mark E

2011-01-01

143

Tsunami Recurrence Function: Structure, Methods of Creation, and Application for Tsunami Hazard Estimates  

Science.gov (United States)

This paper considers a theoretical basement for a Poissonian probability model for tsunami run-up heights, with emphasis on the tsunami recurrence function. It is shown that the tsunami recurrence function of a general type contains at least two scale parameters: asymptotic frequency of big tsunamis f related to the considered region and characteristic tsunami height H* for the considered location in the region. A method for the correct statistical evaluation of the parameters f and H*, and their variations, using observational data from tsunami catalogues, is created. The paper considers some theoretical and applied problems related to the tsunami recurrence function, an example of a two-parameter tsunami hazard map, and also the problem of probabilistic tsunami hazard estimation.

Kaistrenko, Victor

2014-03-01

144

A Qualitative Exploration of Workarounds Related to the Implementation of National Electronic Health Records in Early Adopter Mental Health Hospitals  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Aims To investigate the perceptions and reported practices of mental health hospital staff using national hospital electronic health records (EHRs) in order to inform future implementations, particularly in acute mental health settings. Methods: Thematic analysis of interviews with a wide range of clinical, information technology (IT), managerial and other staff at two early adopter mental health National Health Service (NHS) hospitals in London, UK, implementing national EHRs. Results: We an...

Ser, Gloria; Robertson, Ann; Sheikh, Aziz

2014-01-01

145

Tsunami Signals Recorded By Plate Boundary Observatory Borehole Strainmeters  

Science.gov (United States)

The Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO), the geodetic component of the US National Science Foundation funded Earthscope program, is designed to capture the continuous three-dimensional deformation field across the western United States plate boundary. Installed and maintained by UNAVCO, the observatory currently consists of over 1100 continuous GPS sites, 6 long-baseline laser strainmeters and 75 borehole strainmeters. PBO borehole strainmeters have recorded the arrival of tsunamis generated by the 2009 M8.0 Samoa, 2010 M8.8 Chile and 2011 M9.0 Tohoku earthquakes on the Pacific coast of North America. In our analysis of the strain data we find the following: the tsunami arrival times recorded by the strainmeters are consistent with those recorded by nearby tide-gauges, the data are of sufficient quality to compare the frequency content of the tidal signal in the days before and after the tsunami and, the strain measurements are comparable with those predicted by theory. In each case the strain measurements can be translated to water height estimates which are within centimeters of those recorded by tide gauges. It is possible that borehole strainmeters could play a role in providing a land-based, continuous, high-rate tsunami measurement system.

Hodgkinson, K.; Mencin, D.; Borsa, A.; Henderson, B.; Johnson, W.

2012-04-01

146

ZONAS OSCURAS EN EL SISTEMA DE ALARMA DE ADVERTENCIA DE TSUNAMI EN CHILE / DARK ZONES IN ALARM SYSTEM OF TSUNAMI OF WARNING OF TSUNAMI IN CHILE  

Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

Full Text Available SciELO Chile | Language: Spanish Abstract in spanish El territorio chileno cuenta con alrededor de 80.000 km de costa considerando el territorio insular, un dato relevante al momento de considerar la ocurrencia de un tsunami. Las autoridades chilenas, conscientes de este extenso territorio marítimo, han desarrollado un sistema de alerta de tsunami com [...] o una responsabilidad estatal y han depositado su control a la oficina nacional de emergencia – ministerio del interior (ONEMI) y en el servicio hidrográfico y oceanográfico de la armada de Chile (SHOA). En este artículo hemos realizado experiencias con el objetivo de activar los sistemas de advertencias generando eventos telúricos ficticios y/o eventos telúricos históricos capaces de desatar eventos de tsunami. También se ha propuesto una hipótesis de trabajo que permita, a través de los procedimientos establecidos por ley de la República de Chile, monitorear los tiempos de respuestas de los organismos estatales. Nuestro trabajo de investigación entrega resultados que nos permiten afirmar que existen zonas para eventos hipotéticos que podrían generar tsunamis a los cuales el sistema de alerta no sería eficiente en reaccionar. Para llevar a cabo esta investigación hemos utilizado un software llamado SLAT, basado en ecuaciones simplificadas de propagación de una onda de tsunami que nos permite obtener resultados rápidos y además hemos sometido a prueba el sistema con datos oficiales en los cuales se ha demostrado que el sistema de alerta no fue capaz de reaccionar al evento Atico 8,4 M. ocurrido en Perú. Abstract in english The Chilean territory has an extensive coastline -about 80.000 km of coast including the territory of its islands – which is an important fact to consider in the event of the occurrence of a tsunami. The Chilean authorities, fully aware of the vast maritime territory, have developed a tsunami warnin [...] g system. This system constitutes a state responsibility, and its control has been entrusted to the national emergency office - ministry of interior (ONEMI) and hydrographic and oceanographic service of Chilean navy (SHOA). This article deals with experiences carried out in order to activate the warning systems, generating fictional telluric events and / or historical telluric events capable of triggering tsunami occurrences. It also proposes a working hypothesis that will allow monitoring the response of the state agencies, through the procedures established by law in the Republic of Chile. Our research delivers results that allow us to affirm that there are areas for hypothetical events that could generate tsunamis in which the To carry out this research we have used a software called STLAT based on simplified equations of the propagation of a tsunami wave, which has allowed us to get quick results. We have also carried out tests with official data which have shown that the alarm system was not able to respond appropriately to the 8.4 M Atico event that occurred in Peru in 2001.

Gabriel, Alvarez; Jorge, Ramirez; Lorena, Paredes; Miguel, Canales.

2010-12-01

147

Assessment of Nearshore Hazard due to Tsunami-Induced Currents (Invited)  

Science.gov (United States)

The California Tsunami Program coordinated by CalOES and CGS in cooperation with NOAA and FEMA has begun implementing a plan to increase awareness of tsunami generated hazards to the maritime community (both ships and harbor infrastructure) through the development of in-harbor hazard maps, offshore safety zones for boater evacuation, and associated guidance for harbors and marinas before, during and following tsunamis. The hope is that the maritime guidance and associated education and outreach program will help save lives and reduce exposure of damage to boats and harbor infrastructure. An important step in this process is to understand the causative mechanism for damage in ports and harbors, and then ensure that the models used to generate hazard maps are able to accurately simulate these processes. Findings will be used to develop maps, guidance documents, and consistent policy recommendations for emergency managers and port authorities and provide information critical to real-time decisions required when responding to tsunami alert notifications. The goals of the study are to (1) evaluate the effectiveness and sensitivity of existing numerical models for assessing maritime tsunami hazards, (2) find a relationship between current speeds and expected damage levels, (3) evaluate California ports and harbors in terms of tsunami induced hazards by identifying regions that are prone to higher current speeds and damage and to identify regions of relatively lower impact that may be used for evacuation of maritime assets, and (4) determine ';safe depths' for evacuation of vessels from ports and harbors during a tsunami event. This presentation will focus on the results from five California ports and harbors, and will include feedback we have received from initial discussion with local harbor masters and port authorities. This work in California will form the basis for tsunami hazard reduction for all U.S. maritime communities through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program.

Lynett, P. J.; Borrero, J. C.; Son, S.; Wilson, R. I.; Miller, K.

2013-12-01

148

How volcanic eruptions cause tsunamis  

Science.gov (United States)

This study investigates the effect of pyroclastic flows on tsunami generation. The authors analyzed several possible mechanisms that occur when the particle rich flows encounter water and conclude that the volume and density of the basal flow has a close correlation with the wave's amplitude and wavelength, which can be used to model the water movement in lakes, bays and oceans.

Watts, Phil; Waythomas, C. F.; Agu

149

Development of a Tsunami Inundation Map in Detecting Tsunami Risk in Gulf of Fethiye, Turkey  

Science.gov (United States)

NAMIDANCE tsunami simulation and visualization tool is used to create tsunami inundation maps showing quantitative maximum tsunami flow depths in Fethiye. The risk of an extreme, but likely earthquake-generated tsunami is estimated at Fethiye Bay for 14 probabilistic earthquake scenarios. The bay is located 36°39'5?N 29°7'23?E, southwestern Turkey, which has coastline to the eastern Mediterranean Sea. The tsunami simulation and inundation assessment are performed in three stages: (1) formation of a digital elevation model of the region from the best available topography/bathymetry dataset, (2) estimation of a maximum credible tsunami scenario for the region and determination of related earthquake parameters, (3) high resolution tsunami simulation and computation of near shore and overland tsunami dynamics in the study area using tsunami simulation and visualization code NAMIDANCE, (4) determination of spatial distributions of tsunami characteristics (maximum water elevations, water velocities, flow depths) under the critical tsunami condition. The results are based on the most recent descriptions of potential tsunami sources, topographic and bathymetric databases, and tsunami numerical models. We present an innovative study concentrating on preparation of quantitative flow depths and inundation maps with a very high-resolution bathymetry/topographic dataset in the eastern Mediterranean. Inundation maps will be used to analyze the effects of possible tsunamis. The presented research is crucial to raising the awareness of government officials, the public, and other stake holders about the high probability of a tsunami event in Turkey. Moreover, the results of this study will help to plan for evacuation routes, establish safe zones, and assist in preparation for the tsunami, creating public awareness, and planning evacuation routes before the actual tsunami event happens.

Dilmen, Derya Itir; Kemec, Serkan; Yalciner, Ahmet Cevdet; Düzgün, Sebnem; Zaytsev, Andrey

2014-10-01

150

Issues of tsunami hazard maps revealed by the 2011 Tohoku tsunami  

Science.gov (United States)

Tsunami scientists are imposed responsibilities of selection for people's tsunami evacuation place after the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami in Japan. A lot of matured people died out of tsunami hazard zone based on tsunami hazard map though students made a miracle by evacuation on their own judgment in Kamaishi city. Tsunami hazard maps were based on numerical model smaller than actual magnitude 9. How can we bridge the gap between hazard map and future disasters? We have to discuss about using tsunami numerical model better enough to contribute tsunami hazard map. How do we have to improve tsunami hazard map? Tsunami hazard map should be revised included possibility of upthrust or downthrust after earthquakes and social information. Ground sank 1.14m below sea level in Ayukawa town, Tohoku. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism's research shows around 10% people know about tsunami hazard map in Japan. However, people know about their evacuation places (buildings) through experienced drills once a year even though most people did not know about tsunami hazard map. We need wider spread of tsunami hazard with contingency of science (See the botom disaster handbook material's URL). California Emergency Management Agency (CEMA) team practically shows one good practice and solution to me. I followed their field trip in Catalina Island, California in Sep 2011. A team members are multidisciplinary specialists: A geologist, a GIS specialist, oceanographers in USC (tsunami numerical modeler) and a private company, a local policeman, a disaster manager, a local authority and so on. They check field based on their own specialties. They conduct an on-the-spot inspection of ambiguous locations between tsunami numerical model and real field conditions today. The data always become older. They pay attention not only to topographical conditions but also to social conditions: vulnerable people, elementary schools and so on. It takes a long time to check such field information, however tsunami hazard map based on numerical model should be this process. Tsunami scientists should not enter into the inhumane business by using tsunami numerical model. It includes accountability to society therefore scientists need scientific ethics and humanitarian attention. Should only tsunami scientist have responsibility for human life? Multidisciplinary approach is essential for mitigation like CEMA. I am taking on hazard map training course for disaster management officers from developing countries in JICA training course. I would like to discuss how to improve tsunami hazard map after the 2011 Tohoku tsunami experience in this presentation. A multidisciplinary exparts team of CEMA's tsunami hazard map

Sugimoto, M.

2013-12-01

151

Recent improvements in earthquake and tsunami monitoring in the Caribbean  

Science.gov (United States)

Following the catastrophic loss of life from the December 26, 2004, Sumatra-Andaman Islands earthquake and tsunami, the U.S. Government appropriated funds to improve monitoring along a major portion of vulnerable coastal regions in the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Atlantic Ocean. Partners in this project include the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN), the Seismic Research Unit of the University of the West Indies, and other collaborating institutions in the Caribbean region. As part of this effort, the USGS is coordinating with Caribbean host nations to design and deploy nine new broadband and strong-motion seismic stations. The instrumentation consists of an STS-2 seismometer, an Episensor accelerometer, and a Q330 high resolution digitizer. Six stations are currently transmitting data to the USGS National Earthquake Information Center, where the data are redistributed to the NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers, regional monitoring partners, and the IRIS Data Management Center. Operating stations include: Isla Barro Colorado, Panama; Gun Hill Barbados; Grenville, Grenada; Guantanamo Bay, Cuba; Sabaneta Dam, Dominican Republic; and Tegucigalpa, Honduras. Three additional stations in Barbuda, Grand Turks, and Jamaica will be completed during the fall of 2007. These nine stations are affiliates of the Global Seismographic Network (GSN) and complement existing GSN stations as well as regional stations. The new seismic stations improve azimuthal coverage, increase network density, and provide on-scale recording throughout the region. Complementary to this network, NOAA has placed Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) stations at sites in regions with a history of generating destructive tsunamis. Recently, NOAA completed deployment of 7 DART stations off the coasts of Montauk Pt, NY; Charleston, SC; Miami, FL; San Juan, Puerto Rico; New Orleans, LA; and Bermuda as part of the U.S. tsunami warning system expansion. DART systems consist of an anchored seafloor pressure recorder (BPR) and a companion moored surface buoy for real-time communications. The new stations are a second-generation design (DART II) equipped with two- way satellite communications that allow NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers to set stations in event mode in anticipation of possible tsunamis or retrieve the high-resolution (15-s intervals) data in one-hour blocks for detailed analysis. Combined with development of sophisticated wave propagation and site-specific inundation models, the DART data are being used to forecast wave heights for at-risk coastal communities. NOAA expects to deploy a total of 39 DART II buoy stations by 2008 (32 in the Pacific and 7 in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf regions). The seismic and DART networks are two components in a comprehensive and fully-operational global observing system to detect and warn the public of earthquake and tsunami threats. NOAA and USGS are working together to make important strides in enhancing communication networks so residents and visitors can receive earthquake and tsunami watches and warnings around the clock.

Gee, L.; Green, D.; McNamara, D.; Whitmore, P.; Weaver, J.; Huang, P.; Benz, H.

2007-12-01

152

Incorporating Tsunami Projections to Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessments -A Case Study for Midway Atoll-  

Science.gov (United States)

Recent global models predict a rise of approximately one meter in global sea level by 2100, with potentially larger increases in areas of the Pacific Ocean. If current climate change trends continue, low-lying islands across the globe may become inundated over the next century, placing island biodiversity at risk. Adding to the risk of inundation due to sea level rise is the occurrence of cyclones and tsunamis. This combined trend will affect the low-lying islands of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands and it is therefore important to assess its impact since these islands are critical habitats to many endangered endemic species and support the largest tropical seabird rookery in the world. The 11 March 2011 Tohoku (Mw=8.8) earthquake-tsunami affected the habitat of many endangered endemic species in Midway Atoll National Wildlife Refuge because all three islands (Sand, Eastern and Spit) were inundated by tsunami waves. At present sea level, some tsunamis from certain source regions would not affect Midway Atoll. For example, the previous earthquake-tsunamis such as the 15 November 2006 Kuril (Mw=8.1) and 13 February 2007 Kuril (Mw=7.9) were not significant enough to affect Midway Atoll. But at higher sea levels, tsunamis with similar characteristics could pose a threat to such terrestrial habitats and wildlife. To visualize projected impacts to vegetation composition, wildlife habitat, and wildlife populations, we explored and analyzed inundation vulnerability for a range of possible sea level rise and tsunami scenarios at Midway Atoll National Wildlife Refuge. Studying the combined threat of tsunamis and sea level rise can provide more accurate and comprehensive assessments of the vulnerability of the unique natural resources on low-lying islands. A passive sea level rise model was used to determine how much inundation will occur at different sea level rise values for the three islands of Midway Atoll and each scenario was coupled with NOAA Center for Tsunami Research's tsunami forecasting tool. The tsunami forecasting tool was used to generate tsunami scenarios from different source regions and served as boundary conditions for inundation models to project the coastal impact at Midway Atoll. Underlying the tsunami forecast tool is a database of pre-computed tsunami propagation runs for discrete sections of the earth's subduction zones that are the principal locus of tsunami-generating activity. The new LiDAR topographic data, which is the first high resolution elevation data for three individual islands of Midway Atoll, was used for both the passive sea level rise model and inundation model for Midway Atoll. Results of the study will indicate how the combined climate change and tsunami occurrence will affect Midway Atoll and can therefore be used for early climate change adaptation and mitigation planning, especially for vulnerable species and areas of the Atoll.

Gica, E.; Reynolds, M.

2012-12-01

153

Landslide tsunami case studies using a Boussinesq model and a fully nonlinear tsunami generation model  

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Full Text Available Case studies of landslide tsunamis require integration of marine geology data and interpretations into numerical simulations of tsunami attack. Many landslide tsunami generation and propagation models have been proposed in recent time, further motivated by the 1998 Papua New Guinea event. However, few of these models have proven capable of integrating the best available marine geology data and interpretations into successful case studies that reproduce all available tsunami observations and records. We show that nonlinear and dispersive tsunami propagation models may be necessary for many landslide tsunami case studies. GEOWAVE is a comprehensive tsunami simulation model formed in part by combining the Tsunami Open and Progressive Initial Conditions System (TOPICS with the fully non-linear Boussinesq water wave model FUNWAVE. TOPICS uses curve fits of numerical results from a fully nonlinear potential flow model to provide approximate landslide tsunami sources for tsunami propagation models, based on marine geology data and interpretations. In this work, we validate GEOWAVE with successful case studies of the 1946 Unimak, Alaska, the 1994 Skagway, Alaska, and the 1998 Papua New Guinea events. GEOWAVE simulates accurate runup and inundation at the same time, with no additional user interference or effort, using a slot technique. Wave breaking, if it occurs during shoaling or runup, is also accounted for with a dissipative breaking model acting on the wave front. The success of our case studies depends on the combination of accurate tsunami sources and an advanced tsunami propagation and inundation model.

P. Watts

2003-01-01

154

Tsunami Vulnerability in the NE Atlantic: Towards a new approach to estimate the damage grade on coastal buildings  

Science.gov (United States)

In the NE Atlantic region, large effort has been conducted during the last decade to better understand hazard and vulnerability of coastal areas exposed to tsunami impact. As results of this focus, tsunami hazard is well established through the compilation of tsunami catalogs, identification of earthquake sources able to generate large tsunamis and deterministic computation of sites-specific tsunami inundations. On the other hand, tsunami vulnerability of buildings is still poorly understood in spite of some few studies that attempt to quantify the vulnerability of specific exposed elements. This study focuses on the investigation of tsunami vulnerability of coastal buildings in the NE Atlantic region. We present the core of the building tsunami vulnerability (BTV) model developed by Omira et al (2010), its validation and application to a coastal area of the NE Atlantic. For the harbor city of Tangier (Morocco, we adopt an enhanced version of the BTV model that takes account of new factors that influence building vulnerability. We compare vulnerability results, in this test site, for both original and modified BTV models. Results, from Tangier case study, highlight the importance of considering these new criteria in characterizing and understanding the dynamic aspect of buildings vulnerability within the inundation zone. Finally, we present the core and components of an easy-to-use revised version of the BTV model (BTV-2); and we discuss the possibility and advantage to adopt the BTV-2 model for a qualitative assessment of building tsunami vulnerability in the NE Atlantic coasts. This work is funded by TRIDEC (Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises) FP7, EU project; and by the Tagus Delta - PTDC/MAR/113888/2009, research project funded by FCT, Portugal.

Omira, Rachid; Benchekroun, Sabah; Baptista, Maria Ana

2013-04-01

155

Harm reduction services for British Columbia's First Nation population: a qualitative inquiry into opportunities and barriers for injection drug users  

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Full Text Available Abstract Background Aboriginal injection drug users are the fastest growing group of new Human Immunodeficiency Virus cases in Canada. However, there remains a lack of comprehensive harm reduction services available to First Nation persons, particularly for First Nation people dwelling in rural and reserve communities. This paper reports findings from an exploratory study of current harm reduction practices in First Nation communities. The purpose of this study was to provide an overview of the availability and content of current harm reduction practices, as well as to identify barriers and opportunities for implementing these services in First Nation communities. Methods Key informant interviews were conducted with 13 addictions service providers from the province of British Columbia, Canada. Results Participants identified barriers to these services such as community size and limited service infrastructure, lack of financial resources, attitudes towards harm reduction services and cultural differences. Conclusion It was recommended that community education efforts be directed broadly within the community before establishing harm reduction services and that the readiness of communities be assessed.

Quantz Darryl

2006-10-01

156

An Educational Tool for a New Generation of Tsunami Scientists  

Science.gov (United States)

What emerges from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and society's response is a call for research that will mitigate the effects of the next tsunami on society. The scale of the 2004 tsunami's impact (227,000 deaths, 10B damage), and the world's compassionate response (13.5B), requires that tsunami research focus on applications that benefit society. Tsunami science will be expected to develop standards that ensure mitigation products are based on state-of-the-science. Standards based on scientifically endorsed procedures assure the highest quality application of this science. Community educational activities will be expected to focus on preparing society for the next tsunami. An excellent starting point for the challenges ahead is education, at all levels, including practitioners, the public, and a new generation of tsunami scientists. To educate the new generation of scientists, Volume 15 of The Sea: Tsunamis has been written to capture the technical elements of tsunami state-of-the-science today. The volume includes: the recorded and geologic history of tsunamis and how to assess the probability of the tsunami risk; the generation of tsunamis; the measurement and modeling of tsunami propagation and inundation; the impacts of tsunamis on coastlines; and tsunami forecast and warnings. Together, this volume gives a technical foundation to apply tsunami science to community-based tsunami preparedness. The editors of The Sea: Tsunamis will present an overview of the volume with emphasis on its value to higher education.

Bernard, E. N.; Robinson, A. R.

2008-12-01

157

Assessing Building Vulnerability to Tsunami Hazards using Very High Resolution Satellite Imagery (Case : Cilacap, Indonesia)  

Science.gov (United States)

The big tsunami disaster occurring on 26 December 2004 has destroyed many cities along the Indian Ocean rim and killed approximately 300,000 people and destroyed buildings and city infrastructures making it the deadliest tsunami as well as one of the deadliest natural disasters in recorded history. Furthermore, there are large numbers of world's cities located near coastal lines prone to tsunami hazard. Anticipation measures and disaster mitigation must be taken in order to minimize the negative impacts that may hit those living and built in the cities. The assessment of building vulnerability is an important measure in order to minimize disaster risks to the city. Measuring vulnerability for large number of buildings using conventional method is time consuming and costly. This paper offers a comprehensive framework in assessing building vulnerability by combining field assessment and remote sensing techniques. Field assessment was based on quantitative and qualitative building structural analysis and remote sensing technique was undertaken using object-oriented classification. Very high resolution satellite imagery (quickbird) and elevation data were employed in the remote sensing technique. Each building in the study area was classified automatically into 4 classes (Class A, B, C and Vertical Evacuation) based on their level of vulnerability to tsunami hazard using parameters extracted from remotely sensed data. This paper presents results from Cilacap City, South coast of Java, Indonesia. The research work was performed in the framework of the GITEWS project. The results show that remote sensing and GIS approaches are promising to be applied to measure building vulnerability to tsunami hazards. Outcomes of the research consist of : new concepts in assessing urban vulnerability to tsunami hazard, new algorithm for extracting information from very high resolution satellite images, map of building vulnerability and recommendations concerning to urban vulnerability reduction. Keywords : tsunami hazard, remote sensing, GIS, building vulnerability, very high resolution satellite imagery

Sumaryono, S.; Strunz, G.; Ludwig, R.; Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Mück, M.

2009-04-01

158

Tohoku Tsunami Created Icebergs In Antarctica  

Science.gov (United States)

This website, from NASA, offers an article, images, and a video about the connection between the 2011 tsunami off the coast of Japan and a large ice calving event in Antarctica. Scientists observed ice calving soon after the Japan event and attributed it to the swell caused by the tsunami; this finding marks the first direct observation of such a connection between tsunamis and icebergs.

Lynch, Patrick; Nasa

159

GIS data for the Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Pilot Study to modernize FEMA flood hazard maps  

Science.gov (United States)

A Tsunami Pilot Study was conducted for the area surrounding the coastal town of Seaside, Oregon, as part of the Federal Emergency Management's (FEMA) Flood Insurance Rate Map Modernization Program (Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group, 2006). The Cascadia subduction zone extends from Cape Mendocino, California, to Vancouver Island, Canada. The Seaside area was chosen because it is typical of many coastal communities subject to tsunamis generated by far- and near-field (Cascadia) earthquakes. Two goals of the pilot study were to develop probabilistic 100-year and 500-year tsunami inundation maps using Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) and to provide recommendations for improving tsunami hazard assessment guidelines for FEMA and state and local agencies. The study was an interagency effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Geological Survey, and FEMA, in collaboration with the University of Southern California, Middle East Technical University, Portland State University, Horning Geoscience, Northwest Hydraulics Consultants, and the Oregon Department of Geological and Mineral Industries. The pilot study model data and results are published separately as a geographic information systems (GIS) data report (Wong and others, 2006). The flood maps and GIS data are briefly described here.

Wong, Florence L.; Venturato, Angie J.; Geist, Eric L.

2007-01-01

160

The global tsunami hazard due to long return period subduction zone earthquakes  

Science.gov (United States)

Historical tsunamis and paleotsunami evidence indicate that massive megathrust earthquakes lead to the majority of the losses due to tsunamis. There is a need to quantify the tsunami hazard from megathrust events in order to compare tsunamis with other natural hazards on a global level, as previous attempts have been lacking. The global tsunami hazard induced by earthquakes is therefore computed for a return period of 500 years. To this end, the exposed elements at risk such as population, produced capital, and nuclear power plants are determined. It is shown that populous Asian countries account for the largest absolute number of people living in tsunami prone areas, more than 50% of the total exposed people live in Japan. Smaller nations like Macao and the Maldives are among the most exposed by population count. Exposed nuclear power plants are limited to Japan, China, India, Taiwan, and USA. The methods used to quantify the global hazard are obviously crude, and hence the expected accuracy using global methods are discussed.

Løvholt, Finn; Bonnevie Harbitz, Carl; Glimsdal, Sylfest; Horspool, Nick; Smebye, Helge; de Bono, Andrea; Nadim, Farrokh

2014-05-01

 
 
 
 
161

Using GPS to Detect Imminent Tsunamis  

Science.gov (United States)

A promising method of detecting imminent tsunamis and estimating their destructive potential involves the use of Global Positioning System (GPS) data in addition to seismic data. Application of the method is expected to increase the reliability of global tsunami-warning systems, making it possible to save lives while reducing the incidence of false alarms. Tsunamis kill people every year. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami killed about 230,000 people. The magnitude of an earthquake is not always a reliable indication of the destructive potential of a tsunami. The 2004 Indian Ocean quake generated a huge tsunami, while the 2005 Nias (Indonesia) quake did not, even though both were initially estimated to be of the similar magnitude. Between 2005 and 2007, five false tsunami alarms were issued worldwide. Such alarms result in negative societal and economic effects. GPS stations can detect ground motions of earthquakes in real time, as frequently as every few seconds. In the present method, the epicenter of an earthquake is located by use of data from seismometers, then data from coastal GPS stations near the epicenter are used to infer sea-floor displacements that precede a tsunami. The displacement data are used in conjunction with local topographical data and an advanced theory to quantify the destructive potential of a tsunami on a new tsunami scale, based on the GPS-derived tsunami energy, much like the Richter Scale used for earthquakes. An important element of the derivation of the advanced theory was recognition that horizontal sea-floor motions contribute much more to generation of tsunamis than previously believed. The method produces a reliable estimate of the destructive potential of a tsunami within minutes typically, well before the tsunami reaches coastal areas. The viability of the method was demonstrated in computational tests in which the method yielded accurate representations of three historical tsunamis for which well-documented ground-motion measurements were available. Development of a global tsunami-warning system utilizing an expanded network of coastal GPS stations was under consideration at the time of reporting the information for this article.

Song, Y. Tony

2009-01-01

162

SOME OPPORTUNITITES OF THE LANDSLIDE TSUNAMI HYPOTHESIS  

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Full Text Available Tsunami sources are intimately linked to geological events. Earthquakes and landslides are shown to be part of a continuum of complicated geological phenomena. Advances in landslide tsunami research will remain coupled with marine geology research. The landslide tsunami hypothesis is shown to have originated in the scientific literature in the early 1900s. Tsunami science has been slow to embrace the hypothesis in part because of the tremendous uncertainity that it introduces into tsunami gneration. The 1998 Papua New Guyinea event sparked much controbersy regarding the landslide tsunami hypothesis despite a preponderance of the evidence in favor of one simple and consistent explanation of the tsunami source. Part of the difficulty was the unanticipated distinction between slide and slump tsunami sources. Significant controversies still exist over other aspects of the Papua New Guinea event. The landslide hypothesis will become widely acceepted once direct measurements of underwater landslide events are made. These measurements will likely be integrated into a local tsunami warning system.

Phillip Watts

2001-01-01

163

Tsunami Inundation Mapping of Coastal Alaska  

Science.gov (United States)

Seismic events that occur within the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone have a high potential for generating both local and Pacific-wide tsunamis. To help mitigate the large risk these earthquakes and tsunamis pose to Alaskan coastal communities, the Alaska Tsunami Modeling Team addresses the problem of predicting runup of tsunami waves using a numerical modeling technique. The model solves nonlinear shallow-water equations with a finite-difference method. Embedded grids of different resolution are employed to increase spatial resolution in the shelf area. Numerical simulations yield runup heights, extent of maximum inundation for chosen tsunami scenarios, depths of inundation on dry land, and maximum velocity current distribution in inundation zones. The communities for inundation mapping are selected in coordination with the Alaska Division of Emergency Services with consideration to location, infrastructure, availability of bathymetric and topographic data, and community involvement.The communities of Homer and Seldovia are located in Kachemak Bay, which is one of the high-priority region for Alaska inundation mapping. We modeled two hypothetical earthquake scenarios as potential sources of tsunami waves that affect the Kachemak Bay communities. They represent both distant and local sources, and we model them using the multiple fault approach. Seward, a community in the Prince William Sound area, suffered an extensive damage and 12 fatalities during the 1964 tsunami. The most destructive waves in Seward were local slump-generated tsunamis. We consider several tsunami scenarios for Seward inundation mapping that include both tectonic and landslide sources.

Suleimani, E.; Hansen, R.; Marriott, D.; Combellick, R.

2004-05-01

164

The Decision Matrix for Early Tsunami Warning in the Mediterranean Sea revisited  

Science.gov (United States)

After the generation of the large Indian Ocean 2004 tsunami a systematic effort started for the establishment of regional, national and local early tsunami warning systems in Europe under the co-ordination of IOC/UNESCO. Within this initiative an empirical matrix was developed as a tool supporting decisions about the tsunamigenic or non-tsunamigenic nature of a particular earthquake in real-time conditions. The decision matrix is based on the focal parameters of the earthquakes, that is the location of the earthquake epicenter (offshore or inland), the focal depth (shallow or intermediate depth) and the earthquake magnitude. The data set covers the instrumental period of seismicity. The lower magnitude threshold required for the generation of an important tsunami is about 6. It has been found that offshore, strong (M ? 6) shallow earthquakes have increasing probability for the tsunami generation with the increase of magnitude. However, during 2008 several strong earthquakes of M > 6 occurred along the Hellenic arc and trench system which is the most tsunamigenic in the European-Mediterranean region. None of them was reported to have produced even small tsunami-like sea-level disturbances. Therefore, we re-examine the empirical rules which compose the initial tsunami decision matrix under the light of the updated earthquake data set. We found that on the basis of the earthquake data of the period 1900-2008 only minor change of the rules comes out and that for the time being there is no urgent need to revise the tsunami decision matrix adopted so far. In addition, we examine separately the tectonic rift of Corinth Gulf, Central Greece, due to the historically documented exceptionally high rate of tsunamigenesis there. The examination shows that the percentage of strong earthquakes that produce tsunamis is systematically higher than in the rest Greece for all the magnitude range of strong earthquakes. This implies that a particular decision matrix could be proposed for the Corinth Gulf.

Papadopoulos, G. A.; Charalambakis, M.; Daskalaki, E.; Fokaefs, A.; Orfanogiannaki, K.

2009-04-01

165

Concepts and Perceptions of Democracy and Governance beyond the Nation State: Qualitative Research in Education for European Citizenship  

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Full Text Available The empirical research presented in this paper focuses on concepts and perceptions of European politics and citizenship which are expressed by students and teachers in secondary schools. The qualitative study is based on semi-standardized interviews, written surveys, and classroom research (video transcripts, observation records. The results suggest that many young people are amenable towards transnational patterns of identity and they tend to combine pragmatic-optimistic expectations with European Union citizenship. Many of the students interviewed seem willing to adapt themselves to a larger European environment. However, many of the teachers voiced ambivalent notions while expressing veiled scepticism, although they rarely expressed open criticism based on their own fears towards political developments in a unified Europe. The classroom research shows that in the examined civic education lessons, the everyday concepts of students are seldom questioned and sparsely developed towards social-science-based explanatory models. Sometimes even misleading concepts are enforced in classroom interaction instead of being clarified by the development of adequate categories and models.

Andreas Eis

2010-11-01

166

Lessons Learned from the 2011 Great East Japan Tsunami: Performance of Tsunami Countermeasures, Coastal Buildings, and Tsunami Evacuation in Japan  

Science.gov (United States)

In 2011, Japan was hit by a tsunami that was generated by the greatest earthquake in its history. The first tsunami warning was announced 3 min after the earthquake, as is normal, but failed to estimate the actual tsunami height. Most of the structural countermeasures were not designed for the huge tsunami that was generated by the magnitude M = 9.0 earthquake; as a result, many were destroyed and did not stop the tsunami. These structures included breakwaters, seawalls, water gates, and control forests. In this paper we discuss the performance of these countermeasures, and the mechanisms by which they were damaged; we also discuss damage to residential houses, commercial and public buildings, and evacuation buildings. Some topics regarding tsunami awareness and mitigation are discussed. The failures of structural defenses are a reminder that structural (hard) measures alone were not sufficient to protect people and buildings from a major disaster such as this. These defenses might be able to reduce the impact but should be designed so that they can survive even if the tsunami flows over them. Coastal residents should also understand the function and limit of the hard measures. For this purpose, non-structural (soft) measures, for example experience and awareness, are very important for promoting rapid evacuation in the event of a tsunami. An adequate communication system for tsunami warning messages and more evacuation shelters with evacuation routes in good condition might support a safe evacuation process. The combination of both hard and soft measures is very important for reducing the loss caused by a major tsunami. This tsunami has taught us that natural disasters can occur repeatedly and that their scale is sometimes larger than expected.

Suppasri, Anawat; Shuto, Nobuo; Imamura, Fumihiko; Koshimura, Shunichi; Mas, Erick; Yalciner, Ahmet Cevdet

2013-06-01

167

National evaluation of the benefits and risks of greater structuring and coding of the electronic health record: exploratory qualitative investigation  

Science.gov (United States)

Objective We aimed to explore stakeholder views, attitudes, needs, and expectations regarding likely benefits and risks resulting from increased structuring and coding of clinical information within electronic health records (EHRs). Materials and methods Qualitative investigation in primary and secondary care and research settings throughout the UK. Data were derived from interviews, expert discussion groups, observations, and relevant documents. Participants (n=70) included patients, healthcare professionals, health service commissioners, policy makers, managers, administrators, systems developers, researchers, and academics. Results Four main themes arose from our data: variations in documentation practice; patient care benefits; secondary uses of information; and informing and involving patients. We observed a lack of guidelines, co-ordination, and dissemination of best practice relating to the design and use of information structures. While we identified immediate benefits for direct care and secondary analysis, many healthcare professionals did not see the relevance of structured and/or coded data to clinical practice. The potential for structured information to increase patient understanding of their diagnosis and treatment contrasted with concerns regarding the appropriateness of coded information for patients. Conclusions The design and development of EHRs requires the capture of narrative information to reflect patient/clinician communication and computable data for administration and research purposes. Increased structuring and/or coding of EHRs therefore offers both benefits and risks. Documentation standards within clinical guidelines are likely to encourage comprehensive, accurate processing of data. As data structures may impact upon clinician/patient interactions, new models of documentation may be necessary if EHRs are to be read and authored by patients. PMID:24186957

Morrison, Zoe; Fernando, Bernard; Kalra, Dipak; Cresswell, Kathrin; Sheikh, Aziz

2014-01-01

168

UN assesses tsunami response  

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Full Text Available A report to the UN’s Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC identifies lessons learned from the humanitarian response. Recommendations stress the need for national ownership and leadership of disaster response and recovery, improved coordination, transparent use of resources, civil society engagement and greater emphasis on risk reduction.

Marion Couldrey

2005-07-01

169

UN assesses tsunami response  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

A report to the UN’s Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) identifies lessons learned from the humanitarian response. Recommendations stress the need for national ownership and leadership of disaster response and recovery, improved coordination, transparent use of resources, civil society engagement and greater emphasis on risk reduction.

Marion Couldrey; Tim Morris

2005-01-01

170

Tsunami Source of the 2010 Mentawai, Indonesia Earthquake Inferred from Tsunami Field Survey and Waveform Modeling  

Science.gov (United States)

The 2010 Mentawai earthquake (magnitude 7.7) generated a destructive tsunami that caused more than 500 casualties in the Mentawai Islands, west of Sumatra, Indonesia. Seismological analyses indicate that this earthquake was an unusual "tsunami earthquake," which produces much larger tsunamis than expected from the seismic magnitude. We carried out a field survey to measure tsunami heights and inundation distances, an inversion of tsunami waveforms to estimate the slip distribution on the fault, and inundation modeling to compare the measured and simulated tsunami heights. The measured tsunami heights at eight locations on the west coasts of North and South Pagai Island ranged from 2.5 to 9.3 m, but were mostly in the 4-7 m range. At three villages, the tsunami inundation extended more than 300 m. Interviews of local residents indicated that the earthquake ground shaking was less intense than during previous large earthquakes and did not cause any damage. Inversion of tsunami waveforms recorded at nine coastal tide gauges, a nearby GPS buoy, and a DART station indicated a large slip (maximum 6.1 m) on a shallower part of the fault near the trench axis, a distribution similar to other tsunami earthquakes. The total seismic moment estimated from tsunami waveform inversion was 1.0 × 1021 Nm, which corresponded to Mw 7.9. Computed coastal tsunami heights from this tsunami source model using linear equations are similar to the measured tsunami heights. The inundation heights computed by using detailed bathymetry and topography data and nonlinear equations including inundation were smaller than the measured ones. This may have been partly due to the limited resolution and accuracy of publically available bathymetry and topography data. One-dimensional run-up computations using our surveyed topography profiles showed that the computed heights were roughly similar to the measured ones.

Satake, Kenji; Nishimura, Yuichi; Putra, Purna Sulastya; Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Sunendar, Haris; Fujii, Yushiro; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Latief, Hamzah; Yulianto, Eko

2013-09-01

171

Salinity in Soils and Tsunami Deposits in Areas Affected by the 2010 Chile and 2011 Japan Tsunamis  

Science.gov (United States)

The accumulation of data sets of past tsunamis is the most basic but reliable way to prepare for future tsunamis because the frequency of tsunami occurrence and their magnitude can be estimated by historical records of tsunamis. Investigation of tsunami deposits preserved in geological layers is an effective measure to understand ancient tsunamis that occurred before historical records began. However, the areas containing tsunami deposits can be narrower than the area of tsunami inundation, thus resulting in underestimation of the magnitude of past tsunamis. A field survey was conducted after the 2010 Chile tsunami and 2011 Japan tsunami to investigate the chemical properties of the tsunami-inundated soil to examine the applicability of tsunami inundation surveys considering water-soluble salts in soil. The soil and tsunami deposits collected in the tsunami-inundated areas are rich in water-soluble ions (Na+, Mg2+, Cl-, Br- and SO{4/2-}) compared with the samples collected in the non-inundated areas. The analytical result that the ratios of Na+, Mg2+, Br- and SO{4/2-} to Cl- are nearly the same in the tsunami deposits and in the tsunami-inundated soil suggests that the deposition of these ions resulting from the tsunami inundation does not depend on whether or not tsunami deposits exist. Discriminant analysis of the tsunami-inundated areas using the ion contents shows the high applicability of these ions to the detection of tsunami inundation during periods when the amount of rainfall is limited. To examine the applicability of this method to palaeotsunamis, the continuous monitoring of water-soluble ions in tsunami-inundated soil is needed as a future study.

Yoshii, Takumi; Imamura, Masahiro; Matsuyama, Masafumi; Koshimura, Syunichi; Matsuoka, Masashi; Mas, Erick; Jimenez, Cesar

2013-06-01

172

NOAA tsunami water level archive - scientific perspectives and discoveries  

Science.gov (United States)

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and co-located World Data Service for Geophysics (WDS) provides long-term archive, data management, and access to national and global tsunami data. Currently, NGDC archives and processes high-resolution data recorded by the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) network, the coastal-tide-gauge network from the National Ocean Service (NOS) as well as tide-gauge data recorded by all gauges in the two National Weather Service (NWS) Tsunami Warning Centers' (TWCs) regional networks. The challenge in processing these data is that the observations from the deep-ocean, Pacific Islands, Alaska region, and United States West and East Coasts display commonalities, but, at the same time, differ significantly, especially when extreme events are considered. The focus of this work is on how time integration of raw observations (10-seconds to 1-minute) could mask extreme water levels. Analysis of the statistical and spectral characteristics obtained from records with different time step of integration will be presented. Results show the need to precisely calibrate the despiking procedure against raw data due to the significant differences in the variability of deep-ocean and coastal tide-gauge observations. It is shown that special attention should be drawn to the very strong water level declines associated with the passage of the North Atlantic cyclones. Strong changes for the deep ocean and for the West Coast have implications for data quality but these same features are typical for the East Coast regime.

Mungov, G.; Eble, M. C.; McLean, S. J.

2013-12-01

173

TSUNAMI LOADING ON BUILDINGS WITH OPENINGS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Reinforced concrete (RC buildings with openings in the masonry infill panels have shown superior performance to those without openings in the devastating 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. Understanding the effect of openings and the resulting tsunami force is essential for an economical and safe design of vertical evacuation shelters against tsunamis. One-to-one hundred scale building models with square shape in plan were tested in a 40 m long hydraulic flume with 1 m x 1 m cross section. A mild slope of 0.5 degree representing the beach condition at Phuket, Thailand was simulated in the hydraulic laboratory. The model dimensions were 150 mm x 150 mm x 150 mm. Two opening configurations of the front and back walls were investigated, viz., 25% and 50% openings. Pressure sensors were placed on the faces of the model to measure the pressure distribution. A high frequency load cell was mounted at the base of the model to record the tsunami forces. A bi-linear pressure profile is proposed for determining the maximum tsunami force acting on solid square buildings. The influence of openings on the peak pressures on the front face of the model is found to be practically insignificant. For 25% and 50% opening models, the tsunami forces reduce by about 15% and 30% from the model without openings, respectively. The reduction in the tsunami force clearly demonstrates the benefit of openings in reducing the effect of tsunami on such buildings.

P. Lukkunaprasit

2009-01-01

174

The Indian Ocean Tsunami December 26, 2004  

Science.gov (United States)

This site contains photographs, video, and an online diary made by Dr. Jose Borrero of the University of Southern California Tsunami research group, who visited the Aceh province of Northern Sumatra, one of the areas hardest hit by the tsunami and earthquake, just days after the disaster occurred.

Borrero, Jose

175

Football Coaches' Practical Sense of Talent. A Qualitative Study of Talent Identification in Danish National Youth Team Football  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

This study explores the practical sense of talent among top-level football coaches in Denmark, and aims to identify specific structures of the coaches' expert knowledge related to talent identification. The theoretical foundation of the study is Pierre Bourdieu's theoretical framework, in particular the concept of practical sense. The data compile from eight biographical, in-depth interviews with Danish national youth team football coaches. The interviews are analyzed through a process of coding and recoding. Thematic cross-case analyses as well as purposeful selected single-case analyses are used to explore the focus area. The results are grouped in three major themes, which characterize core elements of the coaches' practical sense: 1) visual experience and pattern recognition, 2) recognition of individual paths and personal styles, and 3) a model of top-level football coaches' classificatory schemes. Conclusively, the study supports the theory that talent identification in top-level football is strongly connected to the coach's practical sense of the game and taste for football talents. Furthermore, the study points at the importance of being aware of the person "behind" the coach, given that his practical sense will be identifying the future talents.

Christensen, Mette Krogh

176

Tsunami early warning system for the western coast of the Black Sea  

Science.gov (United States)

The Black Sea area is liable to tsunamis generation and the statistics show that more than twenty tsunamis have been observed in the past. The last tsunami was observed on 31st of March 1901 in the western part of the Black Sea, in the Shabla area. An earthquake of magnitude generated at a depth of 15 km below the sea level , triggered tsunami waves of 5 m height and material losses as well. The oldest tsunami ever recorded close to the Romanian shore-line dates from year 104. This paper emphasises the participation of The National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP) to the development of a tsunami warning system for the western cost of the Black Sea. In collaboration with the National Institute for Marine Geology and Geoecology (GeoEcoMar), the Institute of Oceanology and the Geological Institute, the last two belonging to the Bulgarian Academy of Science, NIEP has participated as partner, to the cross-border project "Set-up and implementation of key core components of a regional early-warning system for marine geohazards of risk to the Romanian-Bulgarian Black Sea coastal area - MARINEGEOHAZARDS", coordinated by GeoEcoMar. The main purpose of the project was the implementation of an integrated early-warning system accompanied by a common decision-support tool, and enhancement of regional technical capability, for the adequate detection, assessment, forecasting and rapid notification of natural marine geohazards for the Romanian-Bulgarian Black Sea cross-border area. In the last years, NIEP has increased its interest on the marine related hazards, such as tsunamis and, in collaboration with other institutions of Romania, is acting to strengthen the cooperation and data exchanges with institutions from the Black Sea surrounding countries which already have tsunami monitoring infrastructures. In this respect, NIEP has developed a coastal network for marine seismicity, by installing three new seismic stations in the coastal area of the Black Sea, Sea Level Sensors, Radar and Pressure sensors, Meteorological and GNSS stations at every site, providing tide gauges and seismic data exchange with the Black Sea countries. At the same time, the Tsunami Analysis Tool (TAT) software, for inundation modelling, along with it's RedPhone application, were also installed at the National Data Centre in Magurele city, and also at Dobrogea Seismic Observatory in the city of Eforie Nord, close to the Black Sea shore.

Ionescu, Constantin; Partheniu, Raluca; Cioflan, Carmen; Constantin, Angela; Danet, Anton; Diaconescu, Mihai; Ghica, Daniela; Grecu, Bogdan; Manea, Liviu; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Moldovan, Iren; Neagoe, Cristian; Radulian, Mircea; Raileanu, Victor; Verdes, Ioan

2014-05-01

177

Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) Data available from the 27 February 2010 Chilean Earthquake  

Science.gov (United States)

As part of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), NOAA’s National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is involved in processing and archiving the high-resolution Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) data. The DART system was developed by NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) in the early 1980’s. Recently observations and data management are supported by NOAA’s National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) providing 15-minute data in real time and in the case of an earthquake and possible tsunami, the DART stations are set in “event mode transmitting regime” and higher-resolution (1-min to 15-sec) bottom pressure data is delivered real-time to the Tsunami Warning Centers. Long-term high-resolution 15-second observational data is also stored on an internal flash card in the station’s bottom pressure recorder (BPR) and these data are sent to NGDC upon DART retrieval. NGDC is involved in processing, archiving and distributing of these data, and integrating them with NGDC’s global historic tsunami events database. This paper describes the methodology and the steps in processing the recovered 15-second raw observations and demonstrates their application in hazard studies and physical oceanography. With some code modifications this methodology can also be applied for processing the real-time DART data, and results are presented for the tsunami waves in the Pacific following the Magnitude 8.8 Chilean Earthquake of 27 February 2010. At the time of this event there were 25 active DART stations in the Pacific basin. The fast-traveling, high-frequency seismic wave triggered the DART stations into event recording mode and most stations continued recording and transmitting real-time as the tsunami passed. However, several of these stations were not transmitting during the tsunami event and the high-resolution 15-sec data was recovered by ship visit. We will present the results from the processing of these 15-sec data.

Mungov, G.; Stroker, K. J.

2010-12-01

178

Tsunami waves of seismic origin: The modern state of knowledge  

Science.gov (United States)

This review summarizes the concepts of seismogenic tsunami waves. Principles of short-term tsunami forecasting and tsunami recording systems are discussed. The traditional approach to describing tsunami generation by earthquakes is outlined and its drawbacks are analyzed. The main and secondary effects are distinguished which are responsible for the formation of waves by underwater earthquakes. The existing numerical codes of tsunami dynamics are described.

Nosov, M. A.

2014-09-01

179

Second international tsunami workshop on the technical aspects of tsunami warning systems, tsunami analysis, preparedness, observation and instrumentation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The Second Workshop on the Technical Aspects of Tsunami Warning Systems, Tsunami Analysis, Preparedness, Observation, and Instrumentation, sponsored and convened by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), was held on 1-2 August 1989, in the modern and attractive research town of Academgorodok, which is located 20 km south from downtown Novosibirsk, the capital of Siberia, USSR. The Program was arranged in eight major areas of interest covering the following: Opening and Introduction; Survey of Existing Tsunami Warning Centers - present status, results of work, plans for future development; Survey of some existing seismic data processing systems and future projects; Methods for fast evaluation of Tsunami potential and perspectives of their implementation; Tsunami data bases; Tsunami instrumentation and observations; Tsunami preparedness; and finally, a general discussion and adoption of recommendations. The Workshop presentations not only addressed the conceptual improvements that have been made, but focused on the inner workings of the Tsunami Warning System, as well, including computer applications, on-line processing and numerical modelling. Furthermore, presentations reported on progress has been made in the last few years on data telemetry, instrumentation and communications. Emphasis was placed on new concepts and their application into operational techniques that can result in improvements in data collection, rapid processing of the data, in analysis and prediction. A Summary Report on the Second International Tsunami Workshop, containing abstracted and annotated proceedings has been published as a separate report. The present Report is a Supplement to the Summary Report and contains the full text of the papers presented at this Workshop. Refs, figs and tabs

180

REWSET: A prototype seismic and tsunami early warning system in Rhodes island, Greece  

Science.gov (United States)

Tsunami warning in near-field conditions is a critical issue in the Mediterranean Sea since the most important tsunami sources are situated within tsunami wave travel times starting from about five minutes. The project NEARTOWARN (2012-2013) supported by the EU-DG ECHO contributed substantially to the development of new tools for the near-field tsunami early warning in the Mediterranean. One of the main achievements is the development of a local warning system in the test-site of Rhodes island (Rhodes Early Warning System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis - REWSET). The system is composed by three main subsystems: (1) a network of eight seismic early warning devices installed in four different localities of the island, one in the civil protection, another in the Fire Brigade and another two in municipality buildings; (2) two radar-type (ultrasonic) tide-gauges installed in the eastern coastal zine of the island which was selected since research on the historical earthquake and tsunami activity has indicated that the most important, near-field tsunami sources are situated offshore to the east of Rhodes; (3) a crisis Geographic Management System (GMS), which is a web-based and GIS-based application incorporating a variety of thematic maps and other information types. The seismic early warning devices activate by strong (magnitude around 6 or more) earthquakes occurring at distances up to about 100 km from Rhodes, thus providing immediate mobilization of the civil protection. The tide-gauges transmit sea level data, while during the crisis the GMS supports decisions to be made by civil protection. In the near future it is planned the REWSET system to be integrated with national and international systems. REWSET is a prototype which certainly could be developed in other coastal areas of the Mediterranean and beyond.

Papadopoulos, Gerasimos; Argyris, Ilias; Aggelou, Savvas; Karastathis, Vasilis

2014-05-01

 
 
 
 
181

A Walk through TRIDEC's intermediate Tsunami Early Warning System  

Science.gov (United States)

The management of natural crises is an important application field of the technology developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), co-funded by the European Commission in its Seventh Framework Programme. TRIDEC is based on the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) providing a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination. In TRIDEC new developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) are used to extend the existing platform realising a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems for deployment, e.g. in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing challenges, such as the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources with accelerated generation of large volumes of data. These include sensor systems, geo-information repositories, simulation tools and data fusion tools. In addition to conventional sensors also unconventional sensors and sensor networks play an important role in TRIDEC. The system version presented is based on service-oriented architecture (SOA) concepts and on relevant standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). In this way the system continuously gathers, processes and displays events and data coming from open sensor platforms to enable operators to quickly decide whether an early warning is necessary and to send personalized warning messages to the authorities and the population at large through a wide range of communication channels. The system integrates OGC Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of hazardous events, like earthquakes, sea level anomalies, ocean floor occurrences, and ground displacements. Using OGC Web Map Service (WMS) and Web Feature Service (WFS) spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture. The integration of a simulation system to identify affected areas is considered using the OGC Web Processing Service (WPS). Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) together with addressing information defined via the OASIS Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element (EDXL-DE). The first system demonstrator has been designed and implemented to support plausible scenarios demonstrating the treatment of simulated tsunami threats with an essential subset of a National Tsunami Warning Centre (NTWC). The feasibility and the potentials of the implemented approach are demonstrated covering standard operations as well as tsunami detection and alerting functions. The demonstrator presented addresses information management and decision-support processes in a hypothetical natural crisis situation caused by a tsunami in the Eastern Mediterranean. Developments of the system are based to the largest extent on free and open source software (FOSS) components and industry standards. Emphasis has been and will be made on leveraging open source technologies that support mature system architecture models wherever appropriate. All open source software produced is foreseen to be published on a publicly available software repository thus allowing others to reuse results achieved and enabling further development and collaboration with a wide community including scientists, developers, users and stakeholders. This live demonstration is linked with the talk "TRIDEC Natural Crisis Management Demonstrator for Tsunamis" (EGU2012-7275) given in the session "Architecture of Future Tsunami Warning Systems" (NH5.7/ESSI1.7).

Hammitzsch, M.; Reißland, S.; Lendholt, M.

2012-04-01

182

Optical Dating of Tsunami-Laid Sands  

Science.gov (United States)

The ages of some tsunami deposits can be determined by optical dating, a key requirement being that the deposits are derived from sediment that was reworked and exposed to daylight by tidal currents, waves, wind, or bioturbation during the last years before the tsunami. Measurements have been made using 1.4 eV (infrared) excitation of K-feldspar grains separated from samples of prehistoric tsunami sand sheets and modern analogs of tsunami source sediments at four sites in Washington state and British Columbia. Source sands gave equivalent doses indicative of recent exposure to daylight. Tsunami sand at Cultus Bay, Washington, yielded an optical age of 1285 ± 95 yr (calendric years before A.D. 1995, ±1?). At 2?, this age overlaps the range of from 1030 to 1100 yr determined through a combination of high-precision radiocarbon dating and stratigraphic correlation. Tsunami sands at three sites near Tofino and Port Alberni on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, have optical ages of 260 ± 20, 325 ± 25, and 335 ± 45 yr. Historical records and radiocarbon dating show that the sand at each of the three sites is between 150 and 400 yr old. These optical ages support the hypothesis that the Vancouver Island sands were deposited by a tsunami generated by a large earthquake on the Cascadia subduction zone about 300 yr ago.

Huntley, David J.; Clague, John J.

1996-09-01

183

Title: Dispersive tsunamis; does it really matter?  

Science.gov (United States)

Most tsunami modelers rely on the shallow water equations for predictions of propagation and runup, either by using one of the standard codes or by means of an in-house code. Some groups, on the other hand, insist on applying dispersive wave models, sometimes even with enhanced nonlinear properties. Dispersive models are also available as standard code, free or commercial, and some of these are fairly well suited for implementation of tsunami applications. Whereas the employment of dispersive codes for tsunami computation certainly boost the CPU times and memory requirements the gains are regarded as more uncertain by many in the tsunami community. It is clear that physical effects like frequency dispersion and formation of undular bores are beyond the shallow water theory. In this talk we draw on the experience from a series of earthquake and landslide tsunamis to address the significance of dispersion. While frequency dispersion is generally important for tsunamis generated by both submarine and subaerial landslides, the effect is apparent also for tsunamis of seismic origin, albeit to a lesser extent. The source dimensions, water depth and propagation distance all combine to determine the effect of dispersion in deep water propagation. Undular bores do also evolve under given conditions. However, their effect on inundation is still uncertain.

Pedersen, G. K.; Løvholt, F.; Glimsdal, S.; Harbitz, C. B.

2012-04-01

184

The tsunami geomorphology of coastal dunes  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available An examination of the coastal geomorphology of bays along the Otago coastline, SE New Zealand, has identified a geomorphology consistent with tsunami inundation. A tsunami geomorphology consisting of a number of elements including dune pedestals, hummocky topography, parabolic dune systems, and post-tsunami features resulting from changes to the nearshore sediment budget is discussed. The most prominent features at Blueskin Bay are eroded pedestals although it is speculated that hummocky topography may be present in the bay. Tsunami geomorphology at Long Beach is more comprehensive with a marked association between pedestals and a hummocky topography. A full suite of potential geomorphological features however, is not present at either site. The type of features formed by a tsunami, and the ability to detect and interpret a tsunami geomorphology, hinges on the interaction between five key variables; sand availability, embayment type, nature of the coast, accumulation space, and landward environmental conditions. An appreciation of the geomorphic setting and history of a coast is therefore of fundamental importance when identifying what to look for and where to look for tsunami evidence. It is also important to realise that these features can also be formed by other processes.

J. R. Goff

2009-06-01

185

Tsunami Catalogues for the Eastern Mediterranean - Revisited.  

Science.gov (United States)

We critically examine examine tsunami catalogues of tsunamis in the Eastern Mediterranean published in the last decade, by reference to the original sources, see Ambraseys (2008). Such catalogues have been widely used in the aftermath of the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami for probabilistic hazard analysis, even to make projections for a ten year time frame. On occasion, such predictions have caused panic and have reduced the credibility of the scientific community in making hazard assessments. We correct classification and other spurious errors in earlier catalogues and posit a new list. We conclude that for some historic events, any assignment of magnitude, even on a six point intensity scale is inappropriate due to lack of information. Further we assert that any tsunami catalogue, including ours, can only be used in conjunction with sedimentologic evidence to quantitatively infer the return period of larger events. Statistical analyses correlating numbers of tsunami events derived solely from catalogues with their inferred or imagined intensities are meaningless, at least when focusing on specific locales where only a handful of tsunamis are known to have been historically reported. Quantitative hazard assessments based on scenario events of historic tsunamis for which -at best- only the size and approximate location of the parent earthquake is known should be undertaken with extreme caution and only with benefit of geologic studies to enhance the understanding of the local tectonics. Ambraseys N. (2008) Earthquakes in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East: multidisciplinary study of 2000 years of seimicity, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge (ISBN 9780521872928).

Ambraseys, N.; Synolakis, C. E.

2008-12-01

186

A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment Methodology  

Science.gov (United States)

A methodology for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) will be described for multiple near- and far-field seismic sources. The method integrates tsunami inundation modeling with the approach of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). A database of inundation simulations is developed, with each simulation corresponding to an earthquake source for which the seismic parameters and mean interevent time have been estimated. A Poissonian model is then adopted for estimating the probability that tsunami flooding will exceed a given level during a specified period of time, taking into account multiple sources and multiple causes of uncertainty. Uncertainty in the tidal stage at tsunami arrival is dealt with by developing a parametric expression for the probability density function of the sum of the tides and a tsunami; uncertainty in the slip distribution of the near-field source is dealt with probabilistically by considering multiple sources in which width and slip values vary, subject to the constraint of a constant moment magnitude. The method was applied to Seaside, Oregon, to obtain estimates of the spatial distribution of 100- and 500-year maximum tsunami amplitudes, i.e., amplitudes with 1% and 0.2% annual probability of exceedance. These results will be presented and discussed, including the primary remaining sources of uncertainty -- those associated with interevent time estimates, the modeling of background sea level, and temporal changes in bathymetry and topography. PTHA represents an important contribution to tsunami hazard assessment techniques; viewed in the broader context of risk analysis, PTHA provides a method for quantifying estimates of the likelihood and severity of the tsunami hazard, which can then be combined with vulnerability and exposure to yield estimates of tsunami risk.

Gonzalez, Frank; Geist, Eric; Jaffe, Bruce; Kanoglu, Utku; Mofjeld, Harold; Synolakis, Costas; Titov, Vasily; Arcas, Diego

2010-05-01

187

Inundation Modeling for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment  

Science.gov (United States)

Developing quantitative estimates for site-specific tsunami hazard assessments require substantial modeling efforts to simulate potential tsunami impacts. For most locations, the use of historical data alone is not sufficient to derive long- and short-term hazard estimates. Such studies demand additional model data to fill in the gaps in the historical records. Even if a wealth of historical data is available, extra modeling estimates are warranted to account for changes of coastal infrastructure and/or for probable but non-historical events. The goals of numerical modeling for such studies differ substantially from the goals of a typical hindcast simulation, where the model results are compared with various field data for a specific historical event. In probabilistic modeling, comparison with historical data is only the first preliminary step of the study, to ensure reliability of multiple model estimates for probable events. In this respect, the probabilistic simulations are similar to forecast modeling, which employs a similar methodology for model use. We present the methodology and preliminary results of the modeling study of Seaside, Oregon to produce a model database for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment. Multiple simulations have been performed for a large number of potential far- and near-field tsunami sources using the MOST numerical model. Unlike previous tsunami probabilistic studies, high-resolution numerical grids are employed to resolve details and internal structure of the computed flood zones for each modeled event. Although Seaside does not have a tide gage to record historical tsunamis, some historical tsunami inundation data is available in the form of inundation zone estimates and tsunami sediment data for a limited number of historical events. The numerical model was tested against available historical tsunami measurements. Full numerical solutions for the high-resolution grid are retained for each model run to form a model database that can be used to perform various analyses and probabilistic estimates.

Titov, V. V.; Arcas, D.; Kanoglu, U.; Newman, J.; Gonzalez, F. I.

2004-12-01

188

Plasmon tsunamis on metallic nanoclusters  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A model is constructed to describe inelastic scattering events accompanying electron capture by a highly charged ion flying by a metallic nanosphere. The electronic energy liberated by an electron leaving the Fermi level of the metal and dropping into a deep Rydberg state of the ion is used to increase the ion kinetic energy and, simultaneously, to excite multiple surface plasmons around the positively charged hole left behind on the metal sphere. This tsunami-like phenomenon manifests itself as periodic oscillations in the kinetic energy gain spectrum of the ion. The theory developed here extends our previous treatment (Lucas et al 2011 New J. Phys. 13 013034) of the Arq+/C60 charge exchange system. We provide an analysis of how the individual multipolar surface plasmons of the metallic sphere contribute to the formation of the oscillatory gain spectrum. Gain spectra showing characteristic, tsunami-like oscillations are simulated for Ar15+ ions capturing one electron in distant collisions with Al and Na nanoclusters. (paper)

189

Inflation from tsunami-waves  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

We investigate inflation driven by the evolution of highly excited quantum states within the framework of out of equilibrium field dynamics. These states are characterized by a non-perturbatively large number of quanta in a band of momenta but with vanishing expectation value of the scalar field. They represent the situation in which initially a non-perturbatively large energy density is localized in a band of high energy quantum modes and are coined tsunami-waves. The self-consistent evolution of this quantum state and the scale factor is studied analytically and numerically. It is shown that the time evolution of these quantum states lead to two consecutive stages of inflation under conditions that are the quantum analogue of slow-roll. The evolution of the scale factor during the first stage has new features that are characteristic of the quantum state. During this initial stage the quantum fluctuations in the highly excited band build up an effective homogeneous condensate with a non-perturbatively large amplitude as a consequence of the large number of quanta. The second stage of inflation is similar to the usual classical chaotic scenario but driven by this effective condensate. The excited quantum modes are already superhorizon in the first stage and do not affect the power spectrum of scalar perturbations. Thus, this tsunami quantum state provides a field theoretical justification for chaotic scenarios driven by a classical homogeneous scalar field of large amplitude

190

Detailed analysis of tsunami waveforms generated by the 1946 Aleutian tsunami earthquake  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The 1946 Aleutian earthquake was a typical tsunami earthquake which generated abnormally larger tsunami than expected from its seismic waves. Previously, Johnson and Satake (1997 estimated the fault model of this earthquake using the tsunami waveforms observed at tide gauges. However, they did not model the second pulse of the tsunami at Honolulu although that was much larger than the first pulse. In this paper, we numerically computed the tsunami waveforms using the linear Boussinesq equation to determine the fault model which explains the observed tsunami waveforms including the large second pulse observed at Honolulu. The estimated fault width is 40–60 km which is much narrower than the fault widths of the typical great underthrust earthquakes, the 1957 Aleutian and the 1964 Alasuka earthquakes. A previous study of the 1896 Sanriku earthquake, another typical tsunami earthquake, suggested that the additional uplift of the sediments near the Japan Trench had a large effect on the tsunami generation. In this study, we also show that the additional uplift of the sediments near the trench, due to a large coseismic horizon-tal movement of the backstop, had a significant effect on the tsunami generation of the 1946 Aleutian earthquake. The estimated seismic moment of the 1946 Aleutian earthquake is 17–19 × 1020 20 Nm (Mw 8.1.

Y. Tanioka

2001-01-01

191

Development of Tsunami Simulation Structure for Tsunami Warning System in Turkey  

Science.gov (United States)

Bogazici University, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) is planned to function as one of the Regional Tsunami Watch Centers foreseen by the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (ICG/NEAMTWS). The determination of the sources of the tsunamis is one of the important issues in a tsunami warning system. Eastern Mediterranean has experienced many earthquakes and tsunamis in history. The active faults and their possible rupture characteristics are examined. The possible tsunamigenic sources which may be effective in Eastern Mediterranean basin are determined. The study domains considering different sources and target areas are selected. A series of simulations are performed using the selected sources in the selected domains. The propagation and coastal amplification of tsunamis are assessed to constitute a knowledge-base for the planned tsunami watch system. The current developments in the tsunami watch center, its communication with seismic network of KOERI and future studies are discussed. This study is partly supported by State Planning Organization of Turkish Government, and European Union Project TRANSFER (Tsunami Risk and Strategies for the European Region) supported by the CEC, contract n. 037058, FP6-2005-Global-4.

Erdik, Mustafa; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Meral Ozel, Nurcan; Kalafat, Dogan; Necmioglu, Ocal; Yilmazer, Mehmet; Kanoglu, Utku; Ozer, Ceren; Zaytsev, Andrey; Chernov, Anton

2010-05-01

192

Recent Tsunamis That Affected the Japanese Coasts and Evaluation of JMA's Tsunami Warnings  

Science.gov (United States)

During the last two years (Sep 2006 to Aug 2008), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued tsunami advisories or warnings for eight events. Tsunami estimations in the advisories or warnings are considered appropriate for six cases. No tsunami was confirmed for the other two cases, one of which was thought to be a quite peculiar case. The November 2006 and January 2007 Kuril earthquakes, for which tsunami warnings were issued on the Hokkaido coasts, impelled JMA to improve its methods in estimating tsunamis. The JMA magnitude (M) was larger for the 2007 earthquake than the 2006 event, but other magnitude scales as well as the observed tsunamis were smaller (Fujii and Satake, 2008, BSSA). The long duration of these Kuril tsunamis were due to reflected wave at Emperor seamount chain (Koshimura et al., 2007, GRL). These features have become to be considered in the current JMA's system. The Noto-hanto earthquake (M 6.9) on March 25 in 2007 generated a small (earthquake. On April 20, tsunami advisory was issued following an earthquake near Miyakojima, but no tsunami was recorded. The JMA magnitude was 6.7, but the moment magnitude (Mw) was 6.3 (cf. Global CMT catalog). It is a difficult case to evaluate the magnitude accurately as this is islands region. On July 16, the Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki earthquake (M 6.8) caused moderate tsunami without any damage; the amplitude was up to a few tens of cm at most tidal stations while one station located nearby the source region recorded 1m. JMA issued tsunami advisory within 1 min of the earthquake. On August 2, following a shallow earthquake off southern Sakhalin coast (Mw 6.2), JMA at first did not issue advisory or warning because the estimations did not exceed the criteria for advisory. But a sea level fluctuation was observed at a few tide stations on the Japanese coast, then, JMA issued tsunami advisory for the northern coast of Hokkaido. The post-event analysis showed that the sea level disturbances recorded at Rumoi does not match with the numerical simulation, hence considered as meteorological origin. On August 16, for the great earthquake (Mw 8.0) off Peru coast, JMA issued tsunami advisory, based on the tsunami numerical simulation and actual tsunami data in Hawaii. The tsunami heights recorded on tide gauges were 0.2 m or less in Japan. On May 8, 2008, an earthquake off Ibaraki (M 7.0) occurred and JMA did not issue tsunami advisory. Instead, JMA issued a tsunami forecast, which informed that the maximum tsunami height would be below 0.2m and that such tsunami would not cause damage. Some tide stations recorded very weak tsunami, around 0.1m. On July 19, an earthquake (M 6.6) off Fukushima prefecture caused tsunami up to 0.2 m. JMA issued tsunami advisory for this event.

Satake, K.; Hasegawa, Y.; Nishimae, Y.; Igarashi, Y.

2008-12-01

193

Structural and qualitative evaluation of microscopy and directly observed treatment centers under revised national tuberculosis control programme in Nanded city of Maharashtra.  

Science.gov (United States)

Structural and qualitative evaluation of Revised National Tuberculosis Control Programme (RNTCP) is important to determine actual status of the programme in the field settings and to uncover the concealed gaps. The present cross-sectional study assessed the infrastructural facilities and quality of services provided through microscopy and directly observed treatment (DOT) centers at Nanded city of Maharashtra. The investigator made on spot observation on the activities at microscopy and DOT centers and assessed the infrastructural facilities using an observational checklist. Expert microbiologist cross checked the microscopy report done by the laboratory technicians. It revealed that retrieval mechanism was not functioning in more than half of the DOT centers. Only 5 DOT providers were trained in RNTCP. Stock of sputum containers, methylene blue, and carbol fuchsin was found to be inadequate at some microscopy centers. Half of the laboratory technicians reported high false positive result in spite of being trained. Improvement of infrastructural and logistic support along with the refreshing training for the workers are needed for effective implementation of RNTCP. PMID:21727682

Bhagat, Vijay Manohar; Gattani, Prakash Laxminarayan

2011-01-01

194

A program to acquire deep ocean tsunami measurements in the North Pacific  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deep ocean tsunami measurements are needed to provide open ocean boundary conditions for testing numerical models in hindcast studies, and for improving our understanding of tsunami generation and propagation. Jacob (1984) has identified a portion of the Aleutian Trench which includes the Shumagin Island group as a seismic gap (the Shumagin Gap); he has computed estimates which indicate that the probability of a great earthquake occurrence (Mw > 7.8) is significantly higher for this region than any other in the U.S. Because tsunamigenic earthquakes along a major portion of the seismically active Aleutian trench threaten Hawaii and the U.S. west coast, and because a large tsunami is possible in the event of a great earthquake in the Shumagin Gap, this region has become the focus of a long-term monitoring program by the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). (author). 22 refs, 1 fig

195

Post-crisis analysis of an ineffective tsunami alert: the 2010 earthquake in Maule, Chile.  

Science.gov (United States)

Considering its huge magnitude and its location in a densely populated area of Chile, the Maule seism of 27 February 2010 generated a low amount of victims. However, post-seismic tsunamis were particularly devastating on that day; surprisingly, no full alert was launched, not at the national, regional or local level. This earthquake and associated tsunamis are of interest in the context of natural hazards management as well as crisis management planning. Instead of focusing exclusively on the event itself, this article places emphasis on the process, systems and long-term approach that led the tsunami alert mechanism to be ineffectual. Notably, this perspective reveals interrelated forerunner signs of vulnerability. PMID:24601922

Soulé, Bastien

2014-04-01

196

Development of a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis in Japan  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

It is meaningful for tsunami assessment to evaluate phenomena beyond the design basis as well as seismic design. Because once we set the design basis tsunami height, we still have possibilities tsunami height may exceeds the determined design tsunami height due to uncertainties regarding the tsunami phenomena. Probabilistic tsunami risk assessment consists of estimating for tsunami hazard and fragility of structures and executing system analysis. In this report, we apply a method for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA). We introduce a logic tree approach to estimate tsunami hazard curves (relationships between tsunami height and probability of excess) and present an example for Japan. Examples of tsunami hazard curves are illustrated, and uncertainty in the tsunami hazard is displayed by 5-, 16-, 50-, 84- and 95-percentile and mean hazard curves. The result of PTHA will be used for quantitative assessment of the tsunami risk for important facilities located on coastal area. Tsunami hazard curves are the reasonable input data for structures and system analysis. However the evaluation method for estimating fragility of structures and the procedure of system analysis is now being developed. (authors)

197

Land-Water Boundary Treatment for a Tsunami Model With Dimensional Splitting  

Science.gov (United States)

The Method of Splitting Tsunamis (MOST) model adapted by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for tsunami forecasting operations is praised for its computational efficiency, associated with the use of splitting technique. It will be shown, however, that splitting the computations between and directions results in specific sensitivity to the treatment of land-water boundary. Slight modification to the reflective boundary condition in MOST caused an appreciable difference in the results. This is demonstrated with simulations of the Tohoku-2011 tsunami from the source earthquake to Monterey Bay, California, and in southeast Alaska, followed by comparison with tide gage records. In the first case, the better representation of later waves (reflected from the coasts) by the modified model in a Pacific-wide simulation resulted in twice as long match between simulated and observed tsunami time histories at Monterey gage. In the second case, the modified model was able to propagate the tsunami wave and approach gage records at locations within narrow channels (Juneau, Ketchikan), to where MOST had difficulty propagating the wave. The modification was extended to include inundation computation. The resulting inundation algorithm (Cliffs) has been tested with the complete set of NOAA-recommended benchmark problems focused on inundation. The solutions are compared to the MOST solutions obtained with the version of the MOST model benchmarked for the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program in 2011. In two tests, Cliffs and MOST results are very close, and in another two tests, the results are somewhat different. Very different regimes of generation/disposal of water by Cliffs and MOST inundation algorithms, which supposedly affected the benchmarking results, have been discussed.

Tolkova, Elena

2014-09-01

198

Tsunami wave suppression using submarine barriers  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Submerged barriers, single or double, can be used to greatly reduce the devastating effect of a tsunami wave according to a research flume study conducted at Tel Aviv University. (instruments and methods of investigation)

Fridman, Aleksei M [Russian Research Centre ' Kurchatov Institute' , Moscow (Russian Federation); Alperovich, Leonid S; Pustil' nik, Lev A; Shtivelman, D [Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences, Tel-Aviv University (Israel); Shemer, L; Liberzon, D [School of Mechanical Engineering, Tel-Aviv University (Israel); Marchuk, An G [Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk (Russian Federation)

2010-11-15

199

Livelihoods in post-tsunami Sri Lanka  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Livelihoods in Sri Lanka have been affected not only by the initial devastation of the tsunami but also by the policies and practices of the government and the humanitarian aid community’s post-disaster response.

Simon Harris

2005-07-01

200

The public health response to the tsunami  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available At a meeting in the Maldives convened in April by the International Centre for Migration and Health, public health specialists from tsunami-affected states assessed lessons learned from the humanitarian response.

Bryan Heal

2005-07-01

 
 
 
 
201

Tsunamis and Hurricanes A Mathematical Approach  

CERN Document Server

Tsunamis and hurricanes have had a devastating impact on the population living near the coast during the year 2005. The calculation of the power and intensity of tsunamis and hurricanes are of great importance not only for engineers and meteorologists but also for governments and insurance companies. This book presents new research on the mathematical description of tsunamis and hurricanes. A combination of old and new approaches allows to derive a nonlinear partial differential equation of fifth order describing the steepening up and the propagation of tsunamis. The description includes dissipative terms and does not contain singularities or two valued functions. The equivalence principle of solutions of nonlinear large gas dynamics waves and of solutions of water wave equations will be used. An extension of the continuity equation by a source term due to evaporation rates of salt seawater will help to understand hurricanes. Detailed formula, tables and results of the calculations are given.

Cap, Ferdinand

2006-01-01

202

Post-tsunami protection concerns in Aceh  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement clearly state that those forced to flee natural disasters are to be regarded as IDPs. However, some agencies in post-tsunami Aceh have been reluctant to use the term andto address protection issues.

Marion Couldrey; Tim Morris

2005-01-01

203

A Hamiltonian Formulation On Tsunami Over Swell  

Science.gov (United States)

Tsunami induced by earthquakes typically evolves shore-ward with a significant amplification of amplitude during the last stages of shoaling. This study focuses on tsunami evolution in shallow water under the effects of the oceanographic environment such as breaking and tsunami- swell interaction. One generally describes wave breaking directly with a discontinuity in the solution to the classical nonlinear shallow water equations (NLSW) (e.g., Stoker 1985). This wave-front steepness calculation, however, has the potential problem that for the case of the single wave defined by solitary wave, breaking occurs much closer to the wave crest so that the method is formally invalid (Madsen et. al. 2008). Li and Raichlen (2002) applied a weighted essentially non-oscillatory (WENO) shock-capturing scheme in the numerical NSWE model to capture the wave breaking process. The problem arises that a convenient hamiltonian formalism is lacking to describe wave breaking. One wants to evaluate breaking by deducing the decay of the tsunami energy in a straightforward manner. The linear effect of the tsunami background circulation on swell is well known (e.g., Madsen et. al. 2008). However, Kaihatu and El Safty(2011) hypothesized that this is only one "half" of the mutual interaction between the tsunami and the overlying swell field, which might have subtle effects on the tsunami front-face steepness and breaking process. These effects were observed in a laboratory experiments (Kaihatu and El Safty 2011). It was observed that the presence of swell affects the maximum surface amplitude of overall wave field and produces significant energy shifts to high frequencies, thus promoting tsunami breaking. The theoretical study for tsunami-swell interaction requires a phase-resolving wave-wave interaction model. In this study, we derive a Hamiltonian formulation for the tsunami-swell interaction using the quasi stream-function formulation. This formalism is better able to handle uneven bathymetries than the velocity potential formalism (Kirby 1984). The resulting quadratic Hamiltonian provides a framework for description of tsunami propagating over swell and evaluates wave breaking by calculating the decay of wave energy spectra. It also allows us to explore higher order interactions between tsunami and swell. Current efforts focus on the analysis of tsunami-swell laboratory data from Kaihatu et al. (2011). These data were taken in the Tsunami Wave Basin at Oregon State University. The water depth at the wavemaker was 75cm. A 30cm solitary wave was superimposed with random swell of 2 or 4 sec. peak period and 5 or 10 cm significant wave height; both the tsunami and swell were run together and in isolation, and allowed to propagate over a sloping bottom. Time series of free surface elevations and near bottom velocities were taken at 22 gage locations in the tank. The wave signal will be separated into the tsunami and swell parts, and the transform and decay of the energy spectrum will be calculated using our formulation.

TIAN, M.; Sheremet, A.; Kaihatu, J. M.

2012-12-01

204

Benchmarking the UAF Tsunami Code  

Science.gov (United States)

We have developed a robust numerical model to simulate propagation and run-up of tsunami waves in the framework of non-linear shallow water theory. A temporal position of the shoreline is calculated using the free-surface moving boundary condition. The numerical code adopts a staggered leapfrog finite-difference scheme to solve the shallow water equations formulated for depth-averaged water fluxes in spherical coordinates. To increase spatial resolution, we construct a series of telescoping embedded grids that focus on areas of interest. For large scale problems, a parallel version of the algorithm is developed by employing a domain decomposition technique. The developed numerical model is benchmarked in an exhaustive series of tests suggested by NOAA. We conducted analytical and laboratory benchmarking for the cases of solitary wave runup on simple and composite beaches, run-up of a solitary wave on a conical island, and the extreme runup in the Monai Valley, Okushiri Island, Japan, during the 1993 Hokkaido-Nansei-Oki tsunami. Additionally, we field-tested the developed model to simulate the November 15, 2006 Kuril Islands tsunami, and compared the simulated water height to observations at several DART buoys. In all conducted tests we calculated a numerical solution with an accuracy recommended by NOAA standards. In this work we summarize results of numerical benchmarking of the code, its strengths and limits with regards to reproduction of fundamental features of coastal inundation, and also illustrate some possible improvements. We applied the developed model to simulate potential inundation of the city of Seward located in Resurrection Bay, Alaska. To calculate an aerial extent of potential inundation, we take into account available near-shore bathymetry and inland topography on a grid of 15 meter resolution. By choosing several scenarios of potential earthquakes, we calculated the maximal aerial extent of Seward inundation. As a test to validate our model, we compared the calculated inundation to observations collected after the 1964 earthquake in Alaska and obtained good agreement between the computed and observed datasets.

Nicolsky, D.; Suleimani, E.; West, D.; Hansen, R.

2008-12-01

205

Geomorphic Environments of Tsunami Deposits, Southeastern India  

Science.gov (United States)

As paleotsunami research progresses around the Indian Ocean, it is increasingly evident that tsunamis have occurred in this region in the past. The largest of these could have traversed the ocean and reached the southeastern coast of India, which highlights the importance of identifying key preservation sites in this potential repository of catastrophic basin-wide events. However, geologically enduring sites where tsunami deposits dependably survive are not yet well defined in India and other tropical environments. The purpose of this project was to identify the settings conducive to long-term preservation of tsunami deposits in tropical India and develop criteria for distinguishing them in the stratigraphic record. We documented the post- depositional fate of the tsunami deposits from the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake in various geomorphic environments along the southeastern coast of Tamil Nadu, India from 10.5-13° N. Latitude. Deposits from the 2004 tsunami were mapped, described and surveyed at locations where they had been described immediately after the event, as well as at previously unstudied sites. At many sites, the tsunami deposits were recognizable in the stratigraphic column by characteristic fine mafic laminations, debris and an organic layer at the lower boundary. Field observations and initial grain-size analysis indicated a distinct difference between tsunami deposits and underlying sedimentary layers. For example, at Mamallapuram (12.5° N. Lat.) the mean grain size of the tsunami deposits was 0.25 phi finer than that of the underlying layers. However, only three years after the event, deposits in some locations had already been altered significantly by erosion, bioturbation and incipient weathering and were not readily recognizable in the stratigraphy. Although the 2004 tsunami deposits were thicker and more extensive in the hard-hit southern half of the study area, the degree of bioturbation and weathering was greater there than in the drier northern portion, where some thin tsunami sand layers behind coastal dunes remained unaltered since the original post- tsunami surveys. To date, no conclusive evidence of paleotsunami deposits has been found at the sites included in this study, but the results will guide the search for key settings that best satisfy the balance between sediment volume and preservation.

Johnston, P.; Ely, L.; Achyuthan, H.; Srinivasalu, S.

2008-12-01

206

The AD 365 earthquake: high resolution tsunami inundation for Crete and full scale simulation exercise  

Science.gov (United States)

In the eastern Mediterranean, historical and archaeological records document major earthquake and tsunami events in the past 2000 year (Ambraseys and Synolakis, 2010). The 1200km long Hellenic Arc has allegedly caused the strongest reported earthquakes and tsunamis in the region. Among them, the AD 365 and AD 1303 tsunamis have been extensively documented. They are likely due to ruptures of the Central and Eastern segments of the Hellenic Arc, respectively. Both events had widespread impact due to ground shaking, and e triggered tsunami waves that reportedly affected the entire eastern Mediterranean. The seismic mechanism of the AD 365 earthquake, located in western Crete, has been recently assigned a magnitude ranging from 8.3 to 8.5 by Shaw et al., (2008), using historical, sedimentological, geomorphic and archaeological evidence. Shaw et al (2008) have inferred that such large earthquakes occur in the Arc every 600 to 800 years, with the last known the AD 1303 event. We report on a full-scale simulation exercise that took place in Crete on 24-25 October 2011, based on a scenario sufficiently large to overwhelm the emergency response capability of Greece and necessitating the invocation of the Monitoring and Information Centre (MIC) of the EU and triggering help from other nations . A repeat of the 365 A.D. earthquake would likely overwhelm the civil defense capacities of Greece. Immediately following the rupture initiation it will cause substantial damage even to well-designed reinforced concrete structures in Crete. Minutes after initiation, the tsunami generated by the rapid displacement of the ocean floor would strike nearby coastal areas, inundating great distances in areas of low topography. The objective of the exercise was to help managers plan search and rescue operations, identify measures useful for inclusion in the coastal resiliency index of Ewing and Synolakis (2011). For the scenario design, the tsunami hazard for the AD 365 event was assessed for the biggest island lying in proximity of the Hellenic Arc, namely Crete. High resolution tsunami inundation modelling was performed for Heraklion and Chania. We use MOST, a non-linear finite difference hydrodynamic model thoroughly benchmarked, coupled with accurate bathymetry and topography data. Also, we used empirical attenuation relationships to estimate the effects of ground shaking on infrastructure complementing the scenario design. Tsunami inundation and ground acceleration maps are presented for the study areas, providing valuable information for earthquake and tsunami hazard.

Kalligeris, N.; Flouri, E.; Okal, E.; Synolakis, C.

2012-04-01

207

Michigan State Applet Collection: Tsunami Simulator  

Science.gov (United States)

This is a Java applet that simulates a tsunami from the initial wave pulse through contact with a coastline. Users may change the shape of the sea bottom near the coast and watch the effect on the approaching tsunami. The amplitude of the initial pulse is also adjustable by the user. This item is part of a larger collection of interactive java simulations on a wide range of topics in physics.

Bauer, Wolfgang

2009-03-26

208

Quakes and tsunamis detected by GOCE  

Science.gov (United States)

The aerodynamic accelerations measured by GOCE are used to calculate air density variations and air velocity estimates along GOCE orbit track. The detection of infrasonic waves generated by seismic surface waves and gravity waves generated by tsunamis are presented for earthquakes and tsunamis generated by the great Tohoku quake (11/03/2011). For the seismic/infrasonic waves, a wave propagation modelling is presented and synthetic data are compared to GOCE measurements. The travel time and amplitude discrepancies are discussed in terms of lateral velocity variations in the solid Earth and the atmosphere. For the tsunami/gravity waves, a plane wave analysis is performed and relations between vertical velocity, cross-track velocity and density variations are deduced. From theoretical relations between air density, and vertical and horizontal velocities inside the gravity wave, we demonstrate that the measured perturbations are consistent with a gravity wave generated by the tsunami, and provide a way to estimate the propagation azimuth of the gravity wave. By using these relations, an indicator of gravity wave presence is constructed. It will allow to scan the GOCE data set to search for gravity wave crossings. This study demonstrates that very low earth orbit spacecraft with high-resolution accelerometers are able to detect atmospheric waves generated by the tectonic activity. Such spacecraft may supply additional data to tsunami alert systems in order to validate some tsunami alerts.

Garcia, Raphael F.; Doornbos, Eelco; Bruinsma, Sean; Hebert, Hélène

2014-05-01

209

Tsunamis vs meteotsunamis at the Balearic Islands  

Science.gov (United States)

Tsunamis and meteotsunamis have a very similar behaviour near the coast, being both strongly affected by the topography. Despite they have a clear different origin: seismic (tsunamis) and atmospheric disturbances (meteotsunamis), once generated, they present many similarities, particularly when recorded at the coast due to the strong influence of coastal resonance effects. But propagation over the shelf may be somehow different. The long wave generated after the eartquake propagates freely without any additional forcing and the meteotsunami requires some resonance process between the atmosphere and the ocean in order to optimally transfer the atmospheric energy into the ocean. Meteotsunamis are a very common phenomenon in the region of the Balearic Islands (western Mediterranean) where they are locally known as 'rissaga' but this region is not sismically active and tsunamis only occur in very rare ocasions. However, On 21 May 2003 a submarine earthquake occurred near Algiers producing a tsunami that propagated northward and reached the Balearic Islands and the Levantine coast of the Iberian Peninsula. This event represents a unique oportunity to compare tsunami and meteotsunami characteristics in this region. We separate source and topographic effects from coastal measurements during the tsunami generated in May 2003 and during some meteotsunamis recorded in the region this year. Available data allow to investigating the response of different events at the same coastal station and to compare them with the behaviour of the same event at nearby stations.

Monserrat, Sebastian; Mar Vich, Maria-Del

2010-05-01

210

Tsunami Damage in Northwest Sumatra  

Science.gov (United States)

The island of Sumatra suffered from both the rumblings of the submarine earthquake and the tsunamis that were generated on December 26, 2004. Within minutes of the quake, the sea surged ashore, bringing destruction to the coasts of the northern Sumatra. This pair of images from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite shows the Aceh province of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, on December 17, 2004, before the quake (bottom), and on December 29, 2004 (top), three days after the catastrophe. Although MODIS was not specifically designed to make the very detailed observations that are usually necessary for mapping coastline changes, the sensor nevertheless observed obvious differences in the Sumatran coastline. On December 17, the green vegetation along the west coast appears to reach all the way to the sea, with only an occasional thin stretch of white that is likely sand. After the earthquake and tsunamis, the entire western coast is lined with a noticeable purplish-brown border. The brownish border could be deposited sand, or perhaps exposed soil that was stripped bare of vegetation when the large waves rushed ashore and then raced away. Another possibility is that parts of the coastline may have sunk as the sea floor near the plate boundary rose. On a moderate-resolution image such as this, the affected area may seem small, but each pixel in the full resolution image is 250 by 250 meters. In places the brown strip reaches inland roughly 13 pixels, equal to a distance of 3.25 kilometers, or about 2 miles. On the northern tip of the island (shown in the large image), the incursion is even larger. NASA images created by Jesse Allen, Earth Observatory, using data obtained from the MODIS Rapid Response team and the Goddard Earth Sciences DAAC.

2005-01-01

211

Development of an online tool for tsunami inundation simulation and tsunami loss estimation  

Science.gov (United States)

The devastating impacts of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami highlighted the need for an effective end-to-end tsunami early warning system in the region that connects the scientific components of warning with preparedness of institutions and communities to respond to an emergency. Essential to preparedness planning is knowledge of tsunami risks. In this study, development of an online tool named “INSPIRE” for tsunami inundation simulation and tsunami loss estimation is presented. The tool is designed to accommodate various accuracy levels of tsunami exposure data which will support the users to undertake preliminary tsunami risk assessment from the existing data with progressive improvement with the use of more detailed and accurate datasets. Sampling survey technique is introduced to improve the local vulnerability data with lower cost and manpower. The performance of the proposed methodology and the INSPIRE tool were tested against the dataset in Kamala and Patong municipalities, Phuket province, Thailand. The estimated building type ratios from the sampling survey show the satisfactory agreement with the actual building data at the test sites. Sub-area classification by land use can improve the accuracy of the building type ratio estimation. For the resulting loss estimation, the exposure data generated from detailed field survey can provide the agreeable results when comparing to the actual building damage recorded for the Indian Ocean tsunami event in 2004. However, lower accuracy exposure data derived from sampling survey and remote sensing can still provide a comparative overview of estimated loss.

Srivihok, P.; Honda, K.; Ruangrassamee, A.; Muangsin, V.; Naparat, P.; Foytong, P.; Promdumrong, N.; Aphimaeteethomrong, P.; Intavee, A.; Layug, J. E.; Kosin, T.

2014-05-01

212

The friends and family test: a qualitative study of concerns that influence the willingness of English National Health Service staff to recommend their organisation  

Science.gov (United States)

Objectives The views of practitioners at the ‘sharp end’ of care provision are increasingly recognised as important indicators of quality of care. The National Health Service (NHS) Staff Survey in England has quantified employees’ views on how far they would be happy with the standard of care provided by their organisation if a friend or family member needed treatment. We aimed to characterise the concerns that might affect the willingness of staff to recommend their own organisations. Design Qualitative study involving semi-structured interviews. Data analysis based on the constant comparative method. Participants: Members of clinical and managerial staff in four NHS organisations (n = 70), and senior stakeholders across the NHS including clinicians, managers and others with a strategic or senior-level perspective (n = 98). Setting: One hundred and sixty-eight interviews were conducted: 70 in four case study organisations and 98 across the wider English NHS. Main outcome measures: Not applicable. Results Asking study participants the ‘if a friend...’ question offered insider views on the quality of care. Some staff had no concerns, but others, identified significant problems with consistency, reliability and behaviour of staff. Participants identified reasons for poor care that included inadequate organisational systems; structural problems of understaffing and under-resourcing; weaknesses in professional cultures and professional competence and failure to deal with problems such as unacceptable conduct. Participants emphasised that staff were not always able to deliver high-quality care because they worked in difficult conditions. Conclusions Asking staff to give accounts of their willingness to recommend their organisation to family and friends elicits important insights into quality and safety of care. Such accounts might be able to provide warning signs that could signal organisational decline and avert healthcare scandals, but use outside a research context requires further evaluation. PMID:24781160

Dixon-Woods, Mary; Minion, Joel T; McKee, Lorna; Willars, Janet; Martin, Graham

2014-01-01

213

Hindcast of the 2009 South Pacific tsunami - validation of GIS methodologies for local vulnerability and risk assessment in American Samoa  

Science.gov (United States)

On September 29th, 2009 at 6:48 AM local time, a series of earthquakes generated near the Tonga trench (15.509°S, 172.034°W) triggered a tsunami that reached the shores of Tonga, the Independent State of Samoa, and American Samoa. Effects of the tsunami were seen on several other Pacific islands. Devastation was widespread, resulting in 9 fatalities in Tonga, 149 in the independent State of Samoa and 34 in this study’s region of focus, American Samoa, which was selected mainly because of better data availability. Pago Pago, the capital on the main island of Tutuila, was especially affected by the tsunami because of its natural deep water harbor. Leone, located on the southwest coast of the island, was hit directly by waves propagating northeast from the earthquake’s epicenter. The villages of Poloa, Amanave, Alao, and Tula were also heavily damaged, but Leone and Pago Pago sustained some of the most wide-spread damage on Tutuila due to the combination of large populations with environmental and geographic factors. Following the disaster, teams from several nations evaluated damages and evidence of inundation levels. This study seeks to use information (including population, building types, infrastructure, inundation, flow depth, damages, and death tolls) gathered after the tsunami by researchers in American Samoa in order to validate a pre-existing GIS tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment model. The tsunami inundation, damage and mortality information found from journal papers, reports, newspaper articles, internet, personal communication with local agencies, photos, aerial views, and satellite images, was applied to deduce population density, building vulnerability, and the cause and location of tsunami deaths. The GIS model was adapted for optimal use of the available data. In the GIS model the mortality risk is a “product” of hazard, exposure, and mortality. The hazard is represented by the maximum tsunami flow depth, the exposure is described by the location of the population at a given time of the day, and the mortality is a function of flow depth and building vulnerability. Normally a certain tsunami scenario with a corresponding return period is applied for vulnerability and risk assessments. However, in this study the maximum flow depth was obtained by back modeling the 2009 South Pacific earthquake and tsunami, aiming at validating the GIS model approach for building vulnerability and mortality only. Our model successfully estimated the degree of mortality resulting from this tsunami, based on comparisons with the observed deaths.

Harbitz, C. B.; Sverdrup-Thygeson, K.; Kaiser, G.; Swarny, R.; Gruenburg, L.; Glimsdal, S.; Løvholt, F.; McAdoo, B. G.; Frauenfelder, R.

2010-12-01

214

Tsunami hazard in the Black Sea and the Azov Sea: a new tsunami catalogue  

Science.gov (United States)

Data on tsunamis occurring in the Black Sea and the Azov Sea from antiquity up to the present were updated, critically evaluated and compiled in the standard format developed since the 90's for the New European Tsunami Catalogue. Twenty nine events were examined but three of them, supposedly occurring in 557 AD, 815 AD and 1341 or 1343, were very likely falsely reported. Most of the remaining 26 events were generated in Crimea, offshore Bulgaria as well as offshore North Anatolia. For each of the 26 events examined, 22 events were classified as reliable ones receiving a score of 3 or 4 on a 4-grade reliability scale. Most of them were caused by earthquakes, such as the key event 544/545 of offshore Varna, but a few others were attributed either to aseismic earth slumps or to unknown causes. The tsunami intensity was estimated using the traditional 6-grade scale and the new 12-grade scale introduced by Papadopoulos and Imamura (2001). From 544/545 up to now, only two reliable events of high intensity K ? 7 have been reported, which very roughly indicates that the mean repeat time is ? 750 years. Five reliable tsunamis of moderate intensity 4 ? K tsunami events, the repeat times found are consistent with the theoretical expectations from size-frequency relations. However, in the Black Sea there is no evidence of tsunamis of very high intensity (K ? 10) such as the AD 365, 1303 and 1956 ones associated with large earthquakes occurring along the Hellenic arc and trench, Greece, or the 1908 one in Messina strait, Italy. This observation, along with the relatively low tsunami frequency, indicates that the tsunami hazard in the Black Sea is low to moderate but not negligible. The tsunami hazard in the Azov Sea is very low because of the very low seismicity but also because of the shallow water prevailing there. In fact, only three possible tsunami events have been reported in the Azov Sea.

Papadopoulos, G. A.; Diakogianni, G.; Fokaefs, A.; Ranguelov, B.

2011-03-01

215

Tsunami Early Warning in Europe: NEAMWave Exercise 2012 - the Portuguese Scenario  

Science.gov (United States)

On 27th and 28th November 2012 the first European-wide tsunami exercise took place under the auspices of UNESCO Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (ICG/NEAMTWS). Four international scenarios were performed - one for each candidate tsunami watch provider France, Greece, Portugal and Turkey. Their task was to generate and disseminate tsunami warning bulletins in-time and in compliance with the official NEAMTWS specifications. The Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA, [1]) in Lissabon and the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI [2]) in Istanbul are the national agencies of Portugal and Turkey responsible for tsunami early warning. Both institutes are partners in the TRIDEC [3] project and were using the TRIDEC Natural Crisis Management (NCM) system during NEAMWave exercise. The software demonstrated the seamless integration of diverse components including sensor systems, simulation data, and dissemination hardware. The functionalities that were showcased significantly exceeded the internationally agreed range of capabilities. Special attention was given to the Command and Control User Interface (CCUI) serving as central application for the operator. Its origins lie in the DEWS project [4] but numerous new functionalities were added to master all requirements defined by the complex NEAMTWS workflows. It was of utmost importance to develop an application handling the complexity of tsunami science but providing a clearly arranged and comprehensible interface that disburdens the operator during time-critical hazard situations. [1] IPMA: www.ipma.pt/ [2] KOERI: www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/ [3] TRIDEC: www.tridec-online.eu [4] DEWS: www.dews-online.org

Lendholt, Matthias; Hammmitzsch, Martin; Schulz, Jana; Reißland, Sven

2013-04-01

216

Near-Field Tsunami Early Warning and Preparedeness in the Mediterranean: the EU NEARTOWARN Project  

Science.gov (United States)

The Mediterranean Sea region is characterized by near-field tsunamis (travel times less than 30 min.). An efficient end-to-end warning system should fulfill the condition that the time needed from an earthquake detection to evacuation is less than the arrival time of the first wave, which is a very hard task in the Mediterranean. The project NEARTOWARN, which is supported by the EU DG-ECHO prevention program aims, among others, to establish a pilot system in Rhodes island, SE Aegean Sea, Greece, with the purpose to meet needs for local tsunami early warning but applicable in other coastal zones of the Mediterranean and beyond. To minimize emergency time in less than 30 sec, seismic alert devices (SEDs) make the core component of alerting. SEDs are activated and send alerting signals as soon as a P- phase of seismic wave is detected in the near-field domain and for a predetermined threshold of ground motion. Then, emergency starts while SEDs activate remotely other devices, such as computers with data bases of pre-calculated tsunami simulations, surveillance cameras etc. The system is completed with tide- gauges, simulated tsunami scenarios and emergency planning supported by a Geographical Management System. Rhodes island in Dodecanese, Greece, has been selected as a test- area for the development of the prototype system. To promote the future development of such local systems in other coastal zones of the Mediterranean the NEARTOWARN partners review current status of early warning systems, produce digital inventories of wave travel times from several tsunami sources to a number of forecasting points, standardize data bases for pre-simulated tsunami scenarios and optimize triggering thresholds for the SED alerting networks. A local system such as the one developed by NEARTOWARN is expected to function in synergy with national and regional warning systems such as the one coordinated NEAMTWS.

Papadopoulos, Gerasimos; Karastathis, Vasilis; Novikova, Tatyana; Fokaefs, Anna; Minadakis, George; Papageorgiou, Antonia; Tinti, Stefano; Armigliato, Alberto; Ausilia Paparo, Maria; Zaniboni, Filippo; Georgiou, George; Aniel Quiroga, Inigo; Gonzalez, Mauricio; Alvarez-Gomez, Jose Antonio; Lesne, Olivia; Renou, Camille; Mangin, Antoine; Schindele, Francois; Argyris, Ilias

2014-05-01

217

2011 Tohoku tsunami survey and its historical comparison at Rikuzentakata  

Science.gov (United States)

In the immediate aftermath of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, we conducted detailed field reconnaissance in the City of Rikuzentakata, Iwate Prefecture, Japan during two time periods of 26-29 March and 9-11 April, 2011. Figure 1 shows a typical panoramic photo taken in our survey. Comparing with three historical tsunami events occurred in this region, i.e., the 1896 Meiji tsunami, the 1933 Showa tsunami and the 1960 Chilean tsunami, the 2011 Tohoku tsunami presents the largest values with respect to the wave height, the flooding area and the inundation distance. Relatively uniform tsunami heights were recorded along the Hirota Bay with a representative tsunami height of 15 m, and an increased wave height of 20 m was documented at rocky cape tips. The inundation area of the 2011 tsunami is even larger than the sum of other three previous events. The 2011 Tohoku tsunami exceeded by almost 2.6 times the area flooded by the 1960 Chilean tsunami, which although ranks second. Quite a few new observations were made during the 2011 Tohoku tsunami attack, e.g., the significant tsunami overland flooding even in the rear side of mountains and the entire transfixion of tsunami inundation area at the base of the Hirota Peninsula. The maximum tsunami inundation distance along the Kesen River of 8.1 km from the river mouth, exceeds by 6.2/2.7 times recorded of the 1933 Showa/1960 Chilean tsunami events. Tsunami inundation height linearly decreases along the Kesen River at a rate of 1 m/km. The tsunami inland flooding distance is less than 2 km in Rikuzentakata urban area. A sophisticated variation on the tsunami inundation and runup heights is observed overland, and the relevant tsunami height gradually amplifies towards the east following the corresponding topography. A 2 km longshore coastal forest, originally supposed to act as an artificial tsunami breakwater to protect the inland communities, completely failed during the 2011 event. At the same time, many designated tsunami shelters, such as the city's indoor sports arena and the ancient temple, were within the tsunami flooding zone and failed to save human lives - a risk that was underestimated at present.

Liu, H.; Shimozono, T.; Takagawa, T.; Okayasu, A.; Fritz, H. M.; Sato, S.; Tajima, Y.

2011-12-01

218

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center's Response to the Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami  

Science.gov (United States)

The largest Pacific basin earthquake in 47 years, and also the largest magnitude earthquake since the Sumatra 2004 earthquake, struck off of the east coast of the Tohoku region of Honshu, Japan at 5:46 UTC on 11 March 2011. The Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0) generated a massive tsunami with runups of up to 40m along the Tohoku coast. The tsunami waves crossed the Pacific Ocean causing significant damage as far away as Hawaii, California, and Chile, thereby becoming the largest, most destructive tsunami in the Pacific Basin since 1960. Triggers on the seismic stations at Erimo, Hokkaido (ERM) and Matsushiro, Honshu (MAJO), alerted Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) scientists 90 seconds after the earthquake began. Four minutes after its origin, and about one minute after the earthquake's rupture ended, PTWC issued an observatory message reporting a preliminary magnitude of 7.5. Eight minutes after origin time, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued its first international tsunami message in its capacity as the Northwest Pacific Tsunami Advisory Center. In accordance with international tsunami warning system protocols, PTWC then followed with its first international tsunami warning message using JMA's earthquake parameters, including an Mw of 7.8. Additional Mwp, mantle wave, and W-phase magnitude estimations based on the analysis of later-arriving seismic data at PTWC revealed that the earthquake magnitude reached at least 8.8, and that a destructive tsunami would likely be crossing the Pacific Ocean. The earthquake damaged the nearest coastal sea-level station located 90 km from the epicenter in Ofunato, Japan. The NOAA DART sensor situated 600 km off the coast of Sendai, Japan, at a depth of 5.6 km recorded a tsunami wave amplitude of nearly two meters, making it by far the largest tsunami wave ever recorded by a DART sensor. Thirty minutes later, a coastal sea-level station at Hanasaki, Japan, 600 km from the epicenter, recorded a tsunami wave amplitude of nearly three meters. The evacuation of Hawaii's coastlines commenced at 7:31 UTC. Concurrent with this tsunami event, a widely-felt Mw 4.6 earthquake occurred beneath the island of Hawai`i at 8:58 UTC. PTWC responded within three minutes of origin time with a Tsunami Information Statement stating that the Hawaii earthquake would not generate a tsunami. After issuing 27 international tsunami bulletins to Pacific basin countries, and 16 messages to the State of Hawaii during a period of 25 hours after the event began, PTWC concluded its role during the Tohoku tsunami event with the issuance of the corresponding warning cancellation message at 6:36 UTC on 12 March 2011. During the following weeks, however, the PTWC would continue to respond to dozens of aftershocks related to the earthquake. We will present a complete timeline of PTWC's activities, both domestic and international, during the Tohoku tsunami event. We will also illustrate the immense number of website hits, phone calls, and media requests that flooded PTWC during the course of the event, as well as the growing role social media plays in communicating tsunami hazard information to the public.

Weinstein, S. A.; Becker, N. C.; Shiro, B.; Koyanagi, K. K.; Sardina, V.; Walsh, D.; Wang, D.; McCreery, C. S.; Fryer, G. J.; Cessaro, R. K.; Hirshorn, B. F.; Hsu, V.

2011-12-01

219

Animation of the July 17, 1998, Papua New Guinea Tsunami  

Science.gov (United States)

On July 17, 1998, an earthquake registering 7.1 on the richter scale caused a tsunami along the coast of Papua New Guinea, wiping out two villages. The US Geological Survey (USGS) provides a model of the tsunami along with background information and news stories about the event. The animation is available in four formats and resolutions. Those who want to learn more about tsunamis can take advantage of the site's links under the heading General Information about Tsunamis.

220

UNDERSTANDING TSUNAMI RISK TO STRUCTURES: A CANADIAN PERSPECTIVE  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The potential catastrophic effects of tsunami-induced loading on built infrastructure in the vicinity of shorelines have been brought to the fore by recent global events. However, state- of-the-art building codes remain silent or provide conflicting guidance on designing near- shoreline structures in tsunami-prone areas. This paper focuses on tsunami-induced loading and its effect on structures within the Canadian context. The mechanics of tsunami-induced loading is described based on knowled...

Palermo, D.; Nistor, I.

2008-01-01

 
 
 
 
221

Three factors to enlarge tsunami disaster in Indonesia after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami  

Science.gov (United States)

The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami revealed Indonesia’s vulnerability for natural hazards to the international society. Various education programs of disaster risk reduction have been supported by many international agencies, and both students and community have gradually learned about natural hazards in Indonesia. After five years have passed, it is entering into a new phase. We started a three-year (2009-2011) multi-disciplinary cooperative research project as a part of ‘Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS)’ supported by the Japanese government. The project title is ‘Multi-disciplinary hazard reduction from earthquake and volcanoes in Indonesia’. Three factors contributing to earthquake and tsunami disasters in Indonesia are revealed through our research. Firstly, tsunami hazard is still high in Indonesia. Earthquakes have frequently occurred in West Sumatra after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. In Padang, our research field, a possibility of a great interplate earthquake with tsunami in the near future has been pointed out. Secondly, social infrastructure is very vulnerable. During the recent earthquakes such as the 2009 Padang earthquake, many people were killed by collapse of non-resistance buildings. For the future tsunami hazard, many building had been identified for vertical evacuation, but many candidate evacuation buildings were collapsed during the 2009 earthquake. The last factor is people’s incorrect knowledge about natural hazards. People misunderstand that tsunami comes with initial receding waves through the fact of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami in Indonesia. Every time large earthquake occurs, people go to seaside to check the low tide, especially in the 2004 tsunami disaster area such as Aceh. Our counterpart NGO has patiently struggled with such misunderstanding in Padang and succeeded to educate people. Because of the buildings’ vulnerability, the NGO put priority on horizontal evacuation. The NGO now just concentrates on the first factor, tsunami hazard. We have contributed to education program by using tsunami height poles in Banda Aceh (Fig 1). As for Padang, we try to visualize tsunami by showing inundation data, hazard map and tsunami height poles for people to understand hazard. It is important build up social system to deal with natural hazard. Otherwise natural hazard is amplified by social aspects without proper deals. *Acknowledgment: This work was supported by SATREPS by JST, JICA, RISTEK and LIPI.

Sugimoto, M.; Satake, K.

2010-12-01

222

Tsunami hazards in the Eastern Mediterranean: strong earthquakes and tsunamis in the East Hellenic Arc and Trench system  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Data on tsunami phenomena occurring in the East Hellenic Arc and Trench system (HA-T from antiquity up to the present have been updated, critically evaluated and compiled in the standard GITEC format developed in the last decade for the New European Tsunami Catalogue. New field observations are presented for the tsunamis of 9 February 1948 and 24 March 2002. From the 18 tsunamis reported eight are rather well-documented while another nine remain doubtful. The mean recurrence of strong tsunamis is likely equal to about 142 years. Most of the tsunamis documented are caused by strong earthquakes occurring in the area offshore Rhodes to the east or northeast of the island. However, there are large earthquakes near Rhodes that do not cause tsunamis, like the 1926 and 1957 ones, which is of particular importance for the tsunami hazard assessment.

G. A. Papadopoulos

2007-01-01

223

Introduction to "Historical and Recent Catastrophic Tsunamis in the World: Volume II. Tsunamis from 1755 to 2010"  

Science.gov (United States)

Eighteen papers on past and recent destructive tsunamis are included in Volume II of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Historical and Recent Catastrophic Tsunamis in the World." Three papers discuss deep-sea (DART) and coastal tsunami observations, warning systems and risk management in the Pacific Ocean. Four papers examine the 1755 Lisbon, 1964 Alaska, 2003 Algeria, and 2011 Haiti tsunamis. Four more papers, as well as some papers in Volume I, report on various aspects of the 2010 Chile tsunami. Two papers present some results of field survey and modelling investigation of the 2010 Mentawai, Indonesia, tsunami. Three papers report on modelling efforts of tsunami generation by earthquake and landslide, and of tsunami propagation. Finally, two papers discuss hazard assessment using a probabilistic approach.

Satake, Kenji; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Dominey-Howes, Dale; Borrero, José C.

2013-09-01

224

Research for developing precise tsunami evaluation methods. Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis/numerical simulation method with dispersion and wave breaking  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The present report introduces main results of investigations on precise tsunami evaluation methods, which were carried out from the viewpoint of safety evaluation for nuclear power facilities and deliberated by the Tsunami Evaluation Subcommittee. A framework for the probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) based on logic tree is proposed and calculation on the Pacific side of northeastern Japan is performed as a case study. Tsunami motions with dispersion and wave breaking were investigated both experimentally and numerically. The numerical simulation method is verified for its practicability by applying to a historical tsunami. Tsunami force is also investigated and formulae of tsunami pressure acting on breakwaters and on building due to inundating tsunami are proposed. (author)

225

A Tsunami PSA for Nuclear Power Plants in Korea  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

For the evaluation of safety of NPP caused by Tsunami event, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method was applied in this study. At first, an empirical tsunami hazard analysis performed for an evaluation of tsunami return period. A procedure for tsunami fragility methodology was established, and target equipment and structures for investigation of Tsunami Hazard assessment were selected. A several fragility calculations were performed for equipment in Nuclear Power Plant and finally accident scenario of tsunami event in NPP was presented. Finally, a system analysis performed in the case of tsunami event for an evaluation of a CDF of Ulchin 56 NPP site. For the evaluation of safety of NPP caused by Tsunami event, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method was applied. A procedure for tsunami fragility methodology was established, and target equipment and structures for investigation of Tsunami Hazard assessment were selected. A several fragility calculations were performed for equipment in Nuclear Power Plant and finally accident scenario of tsunami event in NPP was presented. As a result, in the case of tsunami event, functional failure is mostly governed total failure probability of facilities in NPP site

Kim, Min Kyu; Choi, In Kil; Park, Jin Hee; Seo, Kyung Suk; Seo, Jeong Moon; Yang, Joon Eon

2010-06-15

226

A Tsunami PSA for Nuclear Power Plants in Korea  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

For the evaluation of safety of NPP caused by Tsunami event, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method was applied in this study. At first, an empirical tsunami hazard analysis performed for an evaluation of tsunami return period. A procedure for tsunami fragility methodology was established, and target equipment and structures for investigation of Tsunami Hazard assessment were selected. A several fragility calculations were performed for equipment in Nuclear Power Plant and finally accident scenario of tsunami event in NPP was presented. Finally, a system analysis performed in the case of tsunami event for an evaluation of a CDF of Ulchin 56 NPP site. For the evaluation of safety of NPP caused by Tsunami event, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method was applied. A procedure for tsunami fragility methodology was established, and target equipment and structures for investigation of Tsunami Hazard assessment were selected. A several fragility calculations were performed for equipment in Nuclear Power Plant and finally accident scenario of tsunami event in NPP was presented. As a result, in the case of tsunami event, functional failure is mostly governed total failure probability of facilities in NPP site

227

The New Zealand probabilistic tsunami hazard model  

Science.gov (United States)

Effective mitigation of the risks posed by tsunami is an urgent priority for New Zealand, a country straddling the Pacific 'Ring of Fire' and its associated subduction zones. Methods of mitigation, which are in various stages of development, include evacuation mapping, land use planning, and engineering of tsunami resilient buildings and infrastructure. But for this mitigation to be effective an accurate estimate of the hazard posed by tsunamis is needed. This is the motivation behind the New Zealand probabilistic tsunami hazard model. The model considers all types of seismic tsunami sources, whether local, regional or distant to New Zealand. The potential for including other source types, such as landslide and volcanic sources, will be briefly discussed. A critical issue when defining tsunami sources for New Zealand is that the magnitude-frequency distributions of many key seismic sources are not accurately known. For the subduction interfaces and other offshore faults close to New Zealand the historical record of tsunamis is too short to derive magnitude frequency distributions empirically, while the paleotsunami record is incomplete. Fortunately some of the parameters that determine and constrain the magnitude frequency distributions can be estimated, albeit with uncertainty. We present a Monte-Carlo method in which those controlling parameters are randomly sampled, which leads to a process for sampling from the range of different possible magnitude-frequency distributions. Our Monte Carlo method requires the generation of many synthetic catalogues, which require rapid methods for estimating of tsunami heights in each scenario: the methods used for this purpose will be presented. The outputs from our probabilistic model can be presented as hazard curves, describing tsunami height as a function of return period for each section of the coast; these hazard curves include 'error bars' as determined by the uncertainties incorporated in our Monte-Carlo model. Most practical mitigation measures require inundation modelling, not just estimates of the hazard at the coast, and for this purpose we use a process of de-aggregation. Through which a small set of scenarios can be extracted from the hazard model for the purposes of detailed inundation modelling.

Power, W. L.; Mueller, C.; Barberopoulou, A.; Wallace, L. M.; Wang, X.; Fraser, S. A.

2012-12-01

228

Hunting for Ancient Tsunamis in the Tropics  

Science.gov (United States)

Paleotsunami deposits may prove harder to find in tidal wetlands and beach-ridge plains around the tropical Indian Ocean than in temperate but otherwise comparable settings on the Pacific Rim. The reasons for this challenge are probably unrelated to tsunami size or recurrence. Estuarine marshes and grassy beach-ridge plains provide widespread opportunities for tsunamis to lay down preservable sand sheets in northeastern Japan, Kamchatka, the northwestern United States, and south-central Chile. The small plants of these lowlands offered little resistance to tsunami flow. Coseismic subsidence and net late Holocene submergence provided caps of tidal mud that help preserve the sand. By contrast in tidal wetlands overrun by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, mangrove swamps and their inhibit the formation and preservation of tsunami sand sheets. For example, in mangrove swamps along tidal inlets near Ban Nam Kem and Tab Lamu, Thailand, sandy deposits of the 2004 tsunami were probably limited to feather- shaped channel-margin areas where the tsunami lost much of its momentum to the toppling of leafy trees. When these deposits were examined in July 2006, deposit-feeding crabs were busily mixing the sand into muddy, peaty mangrove soils. Such limitations of mangrove swamps as paleotsunami recorders may help explain why a reconnaissance in May 2006 turned up no sand sheets in the soils of mangroves near Cilacap, on the south coast of Java. Thus far it is unclear whether this coast, which faces the Sunda Trench, lacks potential for tsunamis as enormous as Aceh's in 2004, or whether it has a history of enormous tsunamis that simply failed to leave a long-lasting record in the Cilacap mangroves. Disturbance by humans limits the paleotsunami targets on beach-ridge plains facing the Indian Ocean. Thai coastal plains, though apparently grassy where undisturbed, have been extensively modified by placer mining for tin. In Java and southeastern India, most coastal plains have been under the plow for centuries. The outlook for paleotsunami hunting in South and Southeast Asia probably depends on new targets that include coral boulders and scarcely disturbed beach-ridge plains in Thailand; archaeological sites that provide cultural timelines in India; lagoons of Sri Lanka; coastal rivers that offer cutbanks and oxbows on beach-ridge plains of Java; delicately laminated deposits of salt flats routinely overrun by storm surges on the arid northern shores of the Arabian Sea; and records of prehistoric land-level change close to fault-rupture areas along the Sunda Trench.

Atwater, B. F.

2007-05-01

229

Tsunami Ionospheric warning and Ionospheric seismology  

Science.gov (United States)

The last decade demonstrated that seismic waves and tsunamis are coupled to the ionosphere. Observations of Total Electron Content (TEC) and airglow perturbations of unique quality and amplitude were made during the Tohoku, 2011 giant Japan quake, and observations of much lower tsunamis down to a few cm in sea uplift are now routinely done, including for the Kuril 2006, Samoa 2009, Chili 2010, Haida Gwai 2012 tsunamis. This new branch of seismology is now mature enough to tackle the new challenge associated to the inversion of these data, with either the goal to provide from these data maps or profile of the earth surface vertical displacement (and therefore crucial information for tsunami warning system) or inversion, with ground and ionospheric data set, of the various parameters (atmospheric sound speed, viscosity, collision frequencies) controlling the coupling between the surface, lower atmosphere and the ionosphere. We first present the state of the art in the modeling of the tsunami-atmospheric coupling, including in terms of slight perturbation in the tsunami phase and group velocity and dependance of the coupling strength with local time, ocean depth and season. We then show the confrontation of modelled signals with observations. For tsunami, this is made with the different type of measurement having proven ionospheric tsunami detection over the last 5 years (ground and space GPS, Airglow), while we focus on GPS and GOCE observation for seismic waves. These observation systems allowed to track the propagation of the signal from the ground (with GPS and seismometers) to the neutral atmosphere (with infrasound sensors and GOCE drag measurement) to the ionosphere (with GPS TEC and airglow among other ionospheric sounding techniques). Modelling with different techniques (normal modes, spectral element methods, finite differences) are used and shown. While the fits of the waveform are generally very good, we analyse the differences and draw direction of future studies and improvements, enabling the integration of lateral variations of the solid earth, bathymetry or atmosphere, finite model sources, non-linearity of the waves and better attenuation and coupling processes. All these effects are revealed by phase or amplitude discrepancies in selected observations. We then present goals and first results of source inversions, with a focus on estimations of the sea level uplift location and amplitude, either by using GPS networks close from the epicentre or, for tsunamis, GPS of the Hawaii Islands.

Lognonne, Philippe; Rolland, Lucie; Rakoto, Virgile; Coisson, Pierdavide; Occhipinti, Giovanni; Larmat, Carene; Walwer, Damien; Astafyeva, Elvira; Hebert, Helene; Okal, Emile; Makela, Jonathan

2014-05-01

230

Slip distribution of the 2010 Mentawai earthquake from inversion of tsunami waveforms and tsunami field survey data  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

We study the 2010 Mentawai earthquake, a tsunami earthquake that occurred seaward of the southern Mentawai islands of Sumatra, and produced a locally devastating tsunami, with runup commonly in excess of 6 m. As a unique tsunami earthquake case, there is a significant discrepancy between the observed small GPS displacement and the very large tsunami runup (maximum value > 16 m), which cannot be explained by the conventional GPS or seismic inversion model. The goal of this work is to infer ...

Li, L.; Huang, Z.

2013-01-01

231

Tsunami-tendenko and morality in disasters.  

Science.gov (United States)

Disaster planning challenges our morality. Everyday rules of action may need to be suspended during large-scale disasters in favour of maxims that that may make prudential or practical sense and may even be morally preferable but emotionally hard to accept, such as tsunami-tendenko. This maxim dictates that the individual not stay and help others but run and preserve his or her life instead. Tsunami-tendenko became well known after the great East Japan earthquake on 11 March 2011, when almost all the elementary and junior high school students in one city survived the tsunami because they acted on this maxim that had been taught for several years. While tsunami-tendenko has been praised, two criticisms of it merit careful consideration: one, that the maxim is selfish and immoral; and two, that it goes against the natural tendency to try to save others in dire need. In this paper, I will explain the concept of tsunami-tendenko and then respond to these criticisms. Such ethical analysis is essential for dispelling confusion and doubts about evacuation policies in a disaster. PMID:23533054

Kodama, Satoshi

2013-03-26

232

Simulation systems for tsunami wave propagation forecasting within the French tsunami warning center  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available A model-based tsunami prediction system has been developed as part of the French Tsunami Warning Center (operational since 1 July 2012. It involves a precomputed unit source functions database (i.e., a number of tsunami model runs that are calculated ahead of time and stored. For the Mediterranean basin, the faults of the unit functions are placed adjacent to each other, following the discretization of the main seismogenic faults. An automated composite scenarios calculation tool is implemented to allow the simulation of any tsunami propagation scenario (i.e., of any seismic moment. Uncertainty on the magnitude of the detected event and inaccuracy of the epicenter location are taken into account in the composite scenarios calculation. Together with this forecasting system, another operational tool based on real time computing is implemented as part of the French Tsunami Warning Center. This second tsunami simulation tool takes advantage of multiprocessor approaches and more realistic seismological parameters, once the focal mechanism is established. Three examples of historical earthquakes are presented, providing warning refinement compared to the rough tsunami risk map given by the model-based decision matrix.

A. Gailler

2013-10-01

233

Tsunami forecast by joint inversion of real-time tsunami waveforms and seismic of GPS data: application to the Tohoku 2011 tsunami  

Science.gov (United States)

Correctly characterizing tsunami source generation is the most critical component of modern tsunami forecasting. Although difficult to quantify directly, a tsunami source can be modeled via different methods using a variety of measurements from deep-ocean tsunameters, seismometers, GPS, and other advanced instruments, some of which in or near real time. Here we assess the performance of different source models for the destructive 11 March 2011 Japan tsunami using model–data comparison for the generation, propagation, and inundation in the near field of Japan. This comparative study of tsunami source models addresses the advantages and limitations of different real-time measurements with potential use in early tsunami warning in the near and far field. The study highlights the critical role of deep-ocean tsunami measurements and rapid validation of the approximate tsunami source for high-quality forecasting. We show that these tsunami measurements are compatible with other real-time geodetic data, and may provide more insightful understanding of tsunami generation from earthquakes, as well as from nonseismic processes such as submarine landslide failures.

Yong, Wei; Newman, Andrew V.; Hayes, Gavin P.; Titov, Vasily V.; Tang, Liujuan

2014-01-01

234

Strategies for casualty mitigation programs by using advanced tsunami computation  

Science.gov (United States)

1. Purpose of the study In this study, based on the scenario of great earthquakes along the Nankai trough, we aim on the estimation of the run up and high accuracy inundation process of tsunami in coastal areas including rivers. Here, using a practical method of tsunami analytical model, and taking into account characteristics of detail topography, land use and climate change in a realistic present and expected future environment, we examined the run up and tsunami inundation process. Using these results we estimated the damage due to tsunami and obtained information for the mitigation of human casualties. Considering the time series from the occurrence of the earthquake and the risk of tsunami damage, in order to mitigate casualties we provide contents of disaster risk information displayed in a tsunami hazard and risk map. 2. Creating a tsunami hazard and risk map From the analytical and practical tsunami model (a long wave approximated model) and the high resolution topography (5 m) including detailed data of shoreline, rivers, building and houses, we present a advanced analysis of tsunami inundation considering the land use. Based on the results of tsunami inundation and its analysis; it is possible to draw a tsunami hazard and risk map with information of human casualty, building damage estimation, drift of vehicles, etc. 3. Contents of disaster prevention information To improve the hazard, risk and evacuation information distribution, it is necessary to follow three steps. (1) Provide basic information such as tsunami attack info, areas and routes for evacuation and location of tsunami evacuation facilities. (2) Provide as additional information the time when inundation starts, the actual results of inundation, location of facilities with hazard materials, presence or absence of public facilities and areas underground that required evacuation. (3) Provide information to support disaster response such as infrastructure and traffic network damage prediction. Finally, compiling all this information on a tsunami hazard and risk map with the tsunami inundation animation, it is possible to create and propose strategies for casualty mitigation programs.

IMAI, K.; Imamura, F.

2012-12-01

235

Tsunami Speed Variations in Density-stratified Compressible Global Oceans  

Science.gov (United States)

Recent tsunami observations in the deep ocean have accumulated unequivocal evidence that tsunami traveltime delays compared with the linear long-wave tsunami simulations occur during tsunami propagation in the deep ocean. The delay is up to 2% of the tsunami traveltime. Watada et al. [2013] investigated the cause of the delay using the normal mode theory of tsunamis and attributed the delay to the compressibility of seawater, the elasticity of the solid earth, and the gravitational potential change associated with mass motion during the passage of tsunamis. Tsunami speed variations in the deep ocean caused by seawater density stratification is investigated using a newly developed propagator matrix method that is applicable to seawater with depth-variable sound speeds and density gradients. For a 4-km deep ocean, the total tsunami speed reduction is 0.45% compared with incompressible homogeneous seawater; two thirds of the reduction is due to elastic energy stored in the water and one third is due to water density stratification mainly by hydrostatic compression. Tsunami speeds are computed for global ocean density and sound speed profiles and characteristic structures are discussed. Tsunami speed reductions are proportional to ocean depth with small variations, except for in warm Mediterranean seas. The impacts of seawater compressibility and the elasticity effect of the solid earth on tsunami traveltime should be included for precise modeling of trans-oceanic tsunamis. Data locations where a vertical ocean profile deeper than 2500 m is available in World Ocean Atlas 2009. The dark gray area indicates the Pacific Ocean defined in WOA09. a) Tsunami speed variations. Red, gray and black bars represent global, Pacific, and Mediterranean Sea, respectively. b) Regression lines of the tsunami velocity reduction for all oceans. c)Vertical ocean profiles at grid points indicated by the stars in Figure 1.

Watada, S.

2013-12-01

236

Standards and Guidelines for Numerical Models for Tsunami Hazard Mitigation  

Science.gov (United States)

An increased number of nations around the workd need to develop tsunami mitigation plans which invariably involve inundation maps for warning guidance and evacuation planning. There is the risk that inundation maps may be produced with older or untested methodology, as there are currently no standards for modeling tools. In the aftermath of the 2004 megatsunami, some models were used to model inundation for Cascadia events with results much larger than sediment records and existing state-of-the-art studies suggest leading to confusion among emergency management. Incorrectly assessing tsunami impact is hazardous, as recent events in 2006 in Tonga, Kythira, Greece and Central Java have suggested (Synolakis and Bernard, 2006). To calculate tsunami currents, forces and runup on coastal structures, and inundation of coastlines one must calculate the evolution of the tsunami wave from the deep ocean to its target site, numerically. No matter what the numerical model, validation (the process of ensuring that the model solves the parent equations of motion accurately) and verification (the process of ensuring that the model used represents geophysical reality appropriately) both are an essential. Validation ensures that the model performs well in a wide range of circumstances and is accomplished through comparison with analytical solutions. Verification ensures that the computational code performs well over a range of geophysical problems. A few analytic solutions have been validated themselves with laboratory data. Even fewer existing numerical models have been both validated with the analytical solutions and verified with both laboratory measurements and field measurements, thus establishing a gold standard for numerical codes for inundation mapping. While there is in principle no absolute certainty that a numerical code that has performed well in all the benchmark tests will also produce correct inundation predictions with any given source motions, validated codes reduce the level of uncertainty in their results to the uncertainty in the geophysical initial conditions. Further, when coupled with real--time free--field tsunami measurements from tsunameters, validated codes are the only choice for realistic forecasting of inundation; the consequences of failure are too ghastly to take chances with numerical procedures that have not been validated. We discuss a ten step process of benchmark tests for models used for inundation mapping. The associated methodology and algorithmes have to first be validated with analytical solutions, then verified with laboratory measurements and field data. The models need to be published in the scientific literature in peer-review journals indexed by ISI. While this process may appear onerous, it reflects our state of knowledge, and is the only defensible methodology when human lives are at stake. Synolakis, C.E., and Bernard, E.N, Tsunami science before and beyond Boxing Day 2004, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 364 1845, 2231--2263, 2005.

Titov, V.; Gonzalez, F.; Kanoglu, U.; Yalciner, A.; Synolakis, C. E.

2006-12-01

237

Tsunami inundation modeling for western Sumatra.  

Science.gov (United States)

A long section of the Sunda megathrust south of the great tsunamigenic earthquakes of 2004 and 2005 is well advanced in its seismic cycle and a plausible candidate for rupture in the next few decades. Our computations of tsunami propagation and inundation yield model flow depths and inundations consistent with sparse historical accounts for the last great earthquakes there, in 1797 and 1833. Numerical model results from plausible future ruptures produce flow depths of several meters and inundation up to several kilometers inland near the most populous coastal cities. Our models of historical and future tsunamis confirm a substantial exposure of coastal Sumatran communities to tsunami surges. Potential losses could be as great as those that occurred in Aceh in 2004. PMID:17170141

Borrero, José C; Sieh, Kerry; Chlieh, Mohamed; Synolakis, Costas E

2006-12-26

238

Numerical analysis of tsunami flow around coastal dyke  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Japan has a long stretch of coastal dykes along its shoreline to protect against storm surges, tsunamis and high wind waves. The 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami caused serious damage to these coastal dykes. To improve the coastal dykes along the damaged coast and also to reconsider tsunami risks in other parts of the Japanese coast, it is important to understand the effect that a tsunami can have on a coastal dyke. The present paper thus aims to analyze a tsunami flow around a coastal d...

Mikami, T.; Shibayama, T.

2013-01-01

239

NEAMWave12: The First Tsunami Exercise in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas  

Science.gov (United States)

The first tsunami exercise of the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (NEAMTWS) has been conducted on 27-28 November 2012 involving 19 of the 39 member countries of the Intergovernmental Coordination Group (ICG) for NEAMTWS. NEAMWave12 involved the simulation of the assessment of a tsunami, based on an earthquake-driven scenario followed by alert message dissemination by Candidate Tsunami Watch Provider (CTWP) (Phase A) and continued with the simulation of the National Tsunami Warning Center's/Tsunami Warning Focal Point's (NTWC/TWFP) and Civil Protection Authoritie's (CPA) actions (Phase B), as soon as the message produced in Phase A has been received. There were four earthquake triggered tsunami scenarios in NEAMWave12 in different parts of the NEAM Region, where each CTWP (CENALT-France, NOA-Greece, IPMA-Portugal and KOERI-Turkey) was responsible for a single scenario. The CENALT Scenario was based on a plausible worst-case scenario of magnitude 7.5 along the Western Mediterranean Algerian margin at a fault located close to 21-22 August 1856 Jijel earthquakes. The NOA scenario was based on an earthquake similar to the well-known Amorgos earthquake, which was followed by a tsunami that devastated the Aegean Sea on 9 July 1956. The IPMA scenario was based on the 1 November 1755 Lisbon event with the assumption that the event represents the worst-case tsunami scenario impacting the NE Atlantic region. Finally, the KOERI scenario was based on a Mw=8.4 worst-case interpretation of the 8 August 1303 Crete and Dodecanese Islands earthquake resulting in destructive inundation in the Eastern Mediterranean. Initial evaluation of the exercise indicates that all CTWPs successfully participated in the exercise, where existing operational and some future prototype systems were utilized. System end-users (NTWC/TWFP/CPA) benefited from the exercise considerably, demonstrating the first successful test of the NEAMTWS Tsunami Warning Chain.

Necmioglu, Ocal; Matias Matias, Luis; Schindelé, François; Behrens, Jörn; Tinti, Stefano; Chouliaras, Gerasimos; Melis, Nicos; Carrilho, Fernando; Santoro, Francesca; Rudloff, Alexander; Crochet, Emilie; Gonzalez, Mauricio

2013-04-01

240

NEARTOWARN: A new EU-DG ECHO-supported project for the near-field tsunami early warning  

Science.gov (United States)

The early warning for near-field (local) tsunamis, with travel times of no more than about 30 min. from the tsunami source to the closest coastal zones, is today a hot topic of great importance in the international effort to reduce the loss of human lives and to mitigate other tsunami risks. Particularly, in the Mediterranean region earthquakes, and more rarely volcanic eruptions and landslides, produce near-field tsunamis threatening nearly all the coastal zones but mainly those in the Hellenic Arc and Trench (South Peloponnese, Cyclades, Crete, Rhodes, SW Turkey), in the Corinth Gulf (Central Greece), in the Messina strait and the east Sicily (Italy) in the Ligurian Sea, the Algeria and the Balearic islands, in the west Mediterranean basin, and the Cyprus-Lebanon area in the easternmost Mediterranean. The North East Atlantic and Mediterranean Tsunami Warning System (NEAMTWS), which is under construction with the supervision of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, is oriented to issue warnings only in regional scales, that is for about 1 hour of tsunami propagation time. For near-field warning it is unrealistic to rely on a unique system for the entire basin. Instead, several local systems working on the basis of some joint principles but with local adjustements is the most promising solution. This is exactly the aim of the new project NEARToWARN (Near-field Tsunami Warning) which is supported by the EU DG-ECHO. Partnership includes the National Observatory of Athens (Coordinator, Greece), the University of Bologna (Italy), the University of Cyprus, the ACRI-ST (Sophia-Antipolis, France), the University of Cantabria (Spain) and the Municipility of Rhodes. The main concept is to develop a prototype local early tsunami warning system. To minimize the time for emergency in less than 30 sec, seismic alert devices (SED's) make the core component of the system. SED's are activated and send alerting signals as soon as a P-phase of seismic wave is detected in the near-field but for a predetermined threshold of ground motion. Then, emergency starts while SED's activate remotely other devices, such as computers with data bases of pre-calculated tsunami simulations, surveillance cameras etc. The system is completed with tide-gauges, simulated tsunami scenarios and emergency planning supported by a Geographical Management System. Rhodes island in Dodecanese, South Aegean Sea, Greece, has been selected as a test-area for the development of the prototype system.

Papadopoulos, G. A.

2012-04-01

 
 
 
 
241

A Guidebook to Help Coastal Sumatran Communities Prepare for Tsunamis  

Science.gov (United States)

One way to save lives in future tsunamis in coastal Sumatran communities - where more than one million people live and where tsunamis can strike less than one half hour after the triggering earthquake - is to help these communities prepare themselves. To this end, GeoHazards International (GHI) has developed, with a team of advisors from the fields of earth science, civil engineering, emergency response management and social science, a tsunami preparedness guidebook that summarizes state-of-the-art research and worldwide experience in community tsunami preparedness. This guidebook (available at no cost on www.geohaz.org) introduces essential information about tsunamis, tsunami risk mapping, evacuation planning, community education, tsunami warning systems, and the reduction of damage that tsunamis can cause. It describes how to plan and conduct effective tsunami safety programs. Particular emphasis is placed on methods to evacuate quickly and safely all areas that could be flooded. Each section of the guidebook points to sources that provide supplementary, detailed information that may be important to particular communities. The guidebook is aimed at any person - a concerned citizen, government official, business leader, or member of a community organization - who is willing to become an advocate for local tsunami safety. Scientific expertise is not needed. GHI now seeks assistance in distributing this guidebook and in working with grassroots and international organizations to help Sumatran coastal communities use it to prepare for the next tsunami.

Samant, L.; Tobin, L. T.; Tucker, B. E.

2007-12-01

242

Tsunamis detection, monitoring, and early-warning technologies  

CERN Document Server

The devastating impacts of tsunamis have received increased focus since the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004, the most devastating tsunami in over 400 years of recorded history. This professional reference is the first of its kind: it provides a globally inclusive review of the current state of tsunami detection technology and will be a much-needed resource for oceanographers and marine engineers working to upgrade and integrate their tsunami warning systems. It focuses on the two main tsunami warning systems (TWS): International and Regional. Featured are comparative assessments of detection, monitoring, and real-time reporting technologies. The challenges of detection through remote measuring stations are also addressed, as well as the historical and scientific aspects of tsunamis.

Joseph, Antony

2011-01-01

243

The tsunami probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Example of accident sequence analysis of tsunami PRA according to the standard for procedure of tsunami PRA for nuclear power plants  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) accident, standard for procedure of tsunami PRA for NPP had been established by the Standardization Committee of AESJ. Industry group had been conducting analysis of Tsunami PRA for PWR based on the standard under the cooperation with electric utilities. This article introduced overview of the standard and examples of accident sequence analysis of Tsunami PRA studied by the industry group according to the standard. The standard consisted of (1) investigation of NPP's composition, characteristics and site information, (2) selection of relevant components for Tsunami PRA and initiating events and identification of accident sequence, (3) evaluation of Tsunami hazards, (4) fragility evaluation of building and components and (5) evaluation of accident sequence. Based on the evaluation, countermeasures for further improvement of safety against Tsunami could be identified by the sensitivity analysis. (T. Tanaka)

244

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment - Application to the Mediterranean Sea  

Science.gov (United States)

Following several large tsunami events around the world in the recent years, the tsunami hazard is becoming an increasing concern. The traditional way of assessing tsunami hazard has been through deterministic scenario calculations which provide the expected wave heights due to a given tsunami source, usually a worst-case scenario. For quantitative hazard and risk assessment, however, it is necessary to move towards a probabilistic framework. In this study we focus on earthquake generated tsunamis and present a scheme for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA). Our PTHA methodology is based on the use of Monte-Carlo simulations and follows probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodologies closely. The PTHA is performed in four steps. First, earthquake and tsunami catalogues are analyzed in order to define a number of potential tsunami sources in the study area. For each of these sources, activity rates, maximum earthquake magnitude and uncertainties are assigned. Following, a synthetic earthquake catalogue is established, based on the information about the sources. The third step is to calculate multiple synthetic tsunami scenarios for all potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes in the synthetic catalogue. The tsunami scenarios are then combined at the fourth step to generate hazard curves and maps. We implement the PTHA methodology in the Mediterranean Sea, where numerous tsunami events have been reported in history. We derive a 100000 year-long catalog of potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes and calculate tsunami propagation scenarios for ca. 85000 M6.5+ earthquakes from the synthetic catalog. Results show that the highest tsunami hazard is attributed to the Eastern Mediterranean region, but that also the Western Mediterranean can experience significant tsunami waves for long return periods. Hazard maps will be presented for a range of probability levels together with hazard curves for selected critical locations.

Sorensen, M. B.; Spada, M.; Babeyko, A.; Wiemer, S.; Grünthal, G.

2009-12-01

245

How Single-Parent Children Speak about Poverty and Social Exclusion: Policy Implications from a Comparative, Qualitative, Cross-National Project  

Science.gov (United States)

This article presents some of the key findings from a comparative, qualitative research study carried out in the United Kingdom, Greece, and Cyprus. The main goal of the study was to investigate single-parent children's experiences and understandings of poverty and social exclusion in their everyday lives and to make relevant policy…

Spyrou, Spyros

2013-01-01

246

A tsunami wave propagation analysis for the Ulchin Nuclear Power Plant considering the tsunami sources of western part of Japan  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The accident which was caused by a tsunami and the Great East-Japan earthquake in 2011 occurred at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) site. It is obvious that the NPP accident could be incurred by the tsunami. Therefore a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) for an NPP site should be required in Korea. The PTHA methodology is developed on the PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis) method which is performed by using various tsunami sources and their weights. In this study, the fault sources of northwestern part of Japan were used to analyze as the tsunami sources. These fault sources were suggested by the Atomic Energy Society of Japan (AESJ). To perform the PTHA, the calculations of maximum and minimum wave elevations from the result of tsunami simulations are required. Thus, in this study, tsunami wave propagation analysis were performed for developing the future study of the PTHA

247

A tsunami wave propagation analysis for the Ulchin Nuclear Power Plant considering the tsunami sources of western part of Japan  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The accident which was caused by a tsunami and the Great East-Japan earthquake in 2011 occurred at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) site. It is obvious that the NPP accident could be incurred by the tsunami. Therefore a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) for an NPP site should be required in Korea. The PTHA methodology is developed on the PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis) method which is performed by using various tsunami sources and their weights. In this study, the fault sources of northwestern part of Japan were used to analyze as the tsunami sources. These fault sources were suggested by the Atomic Energy Society of Japan (AESJ). To perform the PTHA, the calculations of maximum and minimum wave elevations from the result of tsunami simulations are required. Thus, in this study, tsunami wave propagation analysis were performed for developing the future study of the PTHA.

Rhee, Hyun Me; Kim, Min Kyu; Sheen, Dong Hoon; Choi, In Kil [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2013-10-15

248

Qualitative methods for assessing risk  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Department of Energy`s (DOE) non-nuclear facilities generally require only a qualitative accident analysis to assess facility risks in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. Achieving a meaningful qualitative assessment of risk necessarily requires the use of suitable non-numerical assessment criteria. Typically, the methods and criteria for assigning facility-specific accident scenarios to the qualitative severity and likelihood classification system in the DOE order requires significant judgment in many applications. Systematic methods for more consistently assigning the total accident scenario frequency and associated consequences are required to substantiate and enhance future risk ranking between various activities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). SNL`s Risk Management and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Department has developed an improved methodology for performing qualitative risk assessments in accordance wi the DOE order requirements. Products of this effort are an improved set of qualitative description that permit (1) definition of the severity for both technical and programmatic consequences that may result from a variety of accident scenarios, and (2) qualitative representation of the likelihood of occurrence. These sets of descriptions are intended to facilitate proper application of DOE criteria for assessing facility risks.

Mahn, J.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hannaman, G.W. [Science Applications International Corp., San Diego, CA (United States); Kryska, P. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

1995-04-01

249

Testing Numerical Tsunami Simulations Against the Inland Extents of Prehistoric Cascadia Tsunami Deposits at Cannon Beach, Oregon  

Science.gov (United States)

Cannon Beach, Oregon faces extreme flooding hazards from future tsunamis generated by seafloor deformation during Cascadia megathrust earthquakes. Trans-Pacific tsunamis also threaten the City as exemplified by the 1964 Alaska tsunami that caused $230,000 of damage. Field mapping of prehistoric tsunami deposits and historical accounts of the 1964 tsunami are used to delineate the inland extents of past tsunamis for comparison with simulations performed with hydrodynamic models. The comparisons offer an empirical test of the credibility of numerical tsunami simulations used to develop evacuation routes and emergency response tactics for coastal communities in Oregon. Although the mapped extents of tsunami deposits can only define minimum estimates of runup and inundation, their inland limits can be used to identify simulations of tsunami inundation that underestimate real-world conditions, while increasing confidence in simulated inundations that meet or surpass the distribution of deposits left by tsunamis. At least three Cascadia tsunamis flooded the lower 1.4-1.6 km of the Ecola Creek valley within the last 1000 years. Estimates of the minimum inundation come from the mapped extents of three sand layers, all of which satisfy 8-9 out of 10 criteria that favor a tsunami origin. The sand layers exhibit physical attributes of beach sand, the presence of fossil brackish-marine diatoms, sharp or eroded lower contacts, landward-thinning trends, and 14C ages that are consistent with regional Cascadia earthquake and tsunami chronologies. The youngest deposit records flooding by the AD 1700 Cascadia tsunami. Age ranges for two earlier tsunamis span 520-800 and 910-980 cal yr BP. A fourth sand layer deposited by a large flood of Ecola Creek about 1.3 ka was distinguished from the three younger tsunami deposits because it shares attributes of sand from the active creek channel. The deposit lacks a landward-thinning trend and its distribution along the central axis of the valley is consistent with overbank flood deposits. The 1964 Alaska tsunami damaged City infrastructure and private property in Cannon Beach. Estimates of the inundation extent and runup elevation are inferred from eyewitness accounts released days after the March 27 tsunami. Maximum runup probably reached 5.8-6.1 m (MLLW) derived from estimates of tsunami flow depth at two sites. The inferred extent of inundation comes from reports of damage to Highway 101, extensive flooding of the business district and from extrapolation of flow depth estimates from eye-witness accounts.

Witter, R. C.; Zhang, Y. J.; Priest, G. R.

2007-12-01

250

Scientific Animations for Tsunami Hazard Mitigation: The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center's YouTube Channel  

Science.gov (United States)

Outreach and education save lives, and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) has a new tool--a YouTube Channel--to advance its mission to protect lives and property from dangerous tsunamis. Such outreach and education is critical for coastal populations nearest an earthquake since they may not get an official warning before a tsunami reaches them and will need to know what to do when they feel strong shaking. Those who live far enough away to receive useful official warnings and react to them, however, can also benefit from PTWC's education and outreach efforts. They can better understand a tsunami warning message when they receive one, can better understand the danger facing them, and can better anticipate how events will unfold while the warning is in effect. The same holds true for emergency managers, who have the authority to evacuate the public they serve, and for the news media, critical partners in disseminating tsunami hazard information. PTWC's YouTube channel supplements its formal outreach and education efforts by making its computer animations available 24/7 to anyone with an Internet connection. Though the YouTube channel is only a month old (as of August 2013), it should rapidly develop a large global audience since similar videos on PTWC's Facebook page have reached over 70,000 viewers during organized media events, while PTWC's official web page has received tens of millions of hits during damaging tsunamis. These animations are not mere cartoons but use scientific data and calculations to render graphical depictions of real-world phenomena as accurately as possible. This practice holds true whether the animation is a simple comparison of historic earthquake magnitudes or a complex simulation cycling through thousands of high-resolution data grids to render tsunami waves propagating across an entire ocean basin. PTWC's animations fall into two broad categories. The first group illustrates concepts about seismology and how it is critical to tsunami warning operations, such as those about earthquake magnitudes, how earthquakes are located, where and how often earthquakes occur, and fault rupture length. The second group uses the PTWC-developed tsunami forecast model, RIFT (Wang et al., 2012), to show how various historic tsunamis propagated through the world's oceans. These animations illustrate important concepts about tsunami behavior such as their speed, how they bend around and bounce off of seafloor features, how their wave heights vary from place to place and in time, and how their behavior is strongly influenced by the type of earthquake that generated them. PTWC's YouTube channel also includes an animation that simulates both seismic and tsunami phenomena together as they occurred for the 2011 Japan tsunami including actual sea-level measurements and proper timing for tsunami alert status, thus serving as a video 'time line' for that event and showing the time scales involved in tsunami warning operations. Finally, PTWC's scientists can use their YouTube channel to communicate with their colleagues in the research community by supplementing their peer-reviewed papers with video 'figures' (e.g., Wang et al., 2012).

Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Shiro, B.; Ward, B.

2013-12-01

251

Global Financial Tsunami Impacts Russian Economy  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Russian economy depends on energy resources highly. Due to impacts of the financial crisis and the sharp decrease of oil price, Russian economy driven by “Petro-dollar” tends to develop slowly. The overwhelming financial tsunami not only impacts Russian financial system but al...

Chunyang Shi

2010-01-01

252

Accessing IDPs in post-tsunami Aceh  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Half a million Acehnese – 12% of the province’s population– became IDPs as a result of the tsunami. For humanitarian actors, gaining access was a major challenge. Important lessons can be drawn in order to improve access to IDPs in future emergencies.

Claudia Hudspeth

2005-07-01

253

Reflections on post-tsunami psychosocial work  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In Sri Lanka psychosocial interventions became a priorityfor emergency response largely led by the concerns of the international media and aid agencies. Interventions were quickly launched but coordination was poor and lessons learned from years of pre-tsunami conflict-related psychosocial programmes were not heeded.

Ananda Galappatti

2005-07-01

254

Post-tsunami protection concerns in Aceh  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement clearly state that those forced to flee natural disasters are to be regarded as IDPs. However, some agencies in post-tsunami Aceh have been reluctant to use the term andto address protection issues.

Marion Couldrey

2005-07-01

255

Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment In Greece Using Gis  

Science.gov (United States)

A new methodology is described that uses GIS (Geographical Information System)to determine tsunami vulnerability at different spatial and temporal scales. The method- ology is based on the construction of a GIS database, which may be used by different end-users and under varying hazard scenarios. Primary data are collected for a range of parameters that relate to the natural environment, land use, the built environment, the local economy and services, as well as socio-economic parameters. The methodol- ogy permits interrogation of the primary datasets by several different end-user groups. For example, the GIS may be used: (1) by the emergency services in order to locate large numbers of casualties, to organise the immediate post-tsunami disaster response and to design evacuation routes; (2) by insurance companies in order to set the premi- ums of individual buildings and businesses and (3) by the municipal authorities as a tool for local planning (planning regulations, relocation of buildings). The results of two applications of the methodology in Greece are presented. The first application in Herakleio (Crete) relates to the impact that the 1650AD tsunami would have in the area under the current circumstances. The worse case scenario for the second application is based on the 1963 tsunami, which affected the coastal segment west of Aeghio in Peloponnese. The two case studies provide valuable information for civil protection, disaster management and planning.

Papathoma, M.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Zong, Y.; Smith, D.

256

Frequency Domain Response at Pacific Coast Harbors to Major Tsunamis of 2005-2011  

Science.gov (United States)

Tsunamis waves caused by submarine earthquake or landslide might contain large wave energy, which could cause significant human loss and property damage locally as well as in distant region. The response of three harbors located at the Pacific coast (i.e. Crescent City Harbor, Los Angeles/Long Beach Port, and San Diego Harbor) to six well-known tsunamis events generated (both near-field and far-field) between 2005 and 2011 are examined and simulated using a hybrid finite element numerical model in frequency domain. The model incorporated the effects of wave refraction, wave diffraction, partial wave reflection from boundaries, entrance and bottom energy dissipation. It can be applied to harbor regions with arbitrary shapes and variable water depth. The computed resonant periods or modes of oscillation for three harbors are in good agreement with the energy spectral analysis of the time series of water surface elevations recorded at tide gauge stations inside three harbors during the six tsunamis events. The computed wave induced currents based on the present model are also in qualitative agreement with some of the reported eye-witness accounts absence of reliable current data. The simulated results show that each harbor responded differently and significantly amplified certain wave period(s) of incident wave trains according to the shape, topography, characteristic dimensions and water depth of the harbor basins.

Xing, Xiuying; Kou, Zhiqing; Huang, Ziyi; Lee, Jiin-Jen

2013-06-01

257

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Mediterranean Sea  

Science.gov (United States)

Following several large tsunami events around the world in the recent years, the tsunami hazard in the Mediterranean region is becoming an increasing concern. The traditional way of assessing tsunami hazard has been through deterministic scenario calculations which provide the expected wave heights due to a given tsunami source. For quantitative hazard and risk assessment, however, it is necessary to move towards a probabilistic framework. In this study we focus on earthquake generated tsunamis and present a scheme for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for the Mediterranean Sea. Our PTHA methodology is based on the use of Monte-Carlo simulations and follows probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodologies closely. The PTHA is performed in four steps: First, earthquake and tsunami catalogues are analyzed in order to define a number of potential tsunami sources in the study area. For each of these sources, activity rates, maximum earthquake magnitude and uncertainties are assigned. Following, a synthetic earthquake catalogue is established, based on the information about the sources. The third step is to calculate multiple synthetic tsunami scenarios for all potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes in the synthetic catalogue. The tsunami scenarios are then combined in the fourth step to generate hazard maps for the Mediterranean region and hazard curves for selected sites. The implementation of the PTHA in the Mediterranean Sea will be described. For a 10000 year long synthetic catalogue, ca. 8500 potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes are defined for which propagation scenarios are calculated. Hazard maps based on these scenarios will be presented together with hazard curves for selected locations.

Sørensen, M. B.; Babeyko, A.; Spada, M.; Wiemer, S.; Grünthal, G.

2009-04-01

258

A Tsunami Fragility Assessment for Nuclear Power Plants in Korea  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Although Tsunami events were defined as an external event in 'PRA Procedure Guide (NUREG/CR- 2300)'after 1982, a Tsunami event was not considered in a design and construction of NPP before the Sumatra earthquake in 2004. But the Madras Atomic Power Station, a commercial nuclear power plant owned and operated by the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL), and located near Chennai, India, was affected by the tsunami generated by the 2004 Sumatra earthquake (USNRC 2008). The condenser cooling pumps of Unit 2 of the installation were affected due to flooding of the pump house and subsequent submergence of the seawater pumps by tsunami waves. The turbine was tripped and the reactor shut down. The unit was brought to a cold-shutdown state, and the shutdown-cooling systems were reported as operating safely. After this event, Tsunami hazards were considered as one of the major natural disasters which can affect the safety of Nuclear Power Plants. The IAEA performed an Extrabudgetary project for Tsunami Hazard Assessment and finally an International Seismic Safety Center (ISSC) established in IAEA for protection from natural disasters like earthquake, tsunami etc. For this reason, a tsunami hazard assessment method determined in this study. At first, a procedure for tsunami hazard assessment method was established, and second target equipment and structures for investigation of Tsunami Hazard assessment were selected. Finally, a sample fragility calculation was performed for one of equipment in Nuclear Power Plant.

Kim, Min Kyu; Choi, In Kil [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Keum Seok [Korea Electric Power Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2009-10-15

259

A Tsunami Fragility Assessment for Nuclear Power Plants in Korea  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Although Tsunami events were defined as an external event in 'PRA Procedure Guide (NUREG/CR- 2300)'after 1982, a Tsunami event was not considered in a design and construction of NPP before the Sumatra earthquake in 2004. But the Madras Atomic Power Station, a commercial nuclear power plant owned and operated by the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL), and located near Chennai, India, was affected by the tsunami generated by the 2004 Sumatra earthquake (USNRC 2008). The condenser cooling pumps of Unit 2 of the installation were affected due to flooding of the pump house and subsequent submergence of the seawater pumps by tsunami waves. The turbine was tripped and the reactor shut down. The unit was brought to a cold-shutdown state, and the shutdown-cooling systems were reported as operating safely. After this event, Tsunami hazards were considered as one of the major natural disasters which can affect the safety of Nuclear Power Plants. The IAEA performed an Extrabudgetary project for Tsunami Hazard Assessment and finally an International Seismic Safety Center (ISSC) established in IAEA for protection from natural disasters like earthquake, tsunami etc. For this reason, a tsunami hazard assessment method determined in this study. At first, a procedure for tsunami hazard assessment method was established, and second target equipment and structures for investigation of Tsunami Hazard assessment were selected. Finally, a sample fragility calculation was perly, a sample fragility calculation was performed for one of equipment in Nuclear Power Plant

260

HySEA: An operational GPU-based model for Tsunami Early Warning Systems  

Science.gov (United States)

HySEA: An operational GPU-based model for Tsunami Early Warning Systems HySEA numerical model for the simulation of earthquake generated tsunamis is presented. The initial sea surface deformation is computed using Okada model. Wave propagation is computed using nonlinear shallow water equations in spherical coordinates, where coastal inundation and run-up are suitable treated in the numerical algorithm. Generation, propagation and inundation phases are all integrated in a single code and computed coupled and synchronously when they occur at the same time. Inundation is modelled by allowing cells to dynamically change from dry to wet and reciprocally when water retreats from wetted areas. Special effort is made in preserving model well-balanced (i.e. capturing small perturbations to the steady state of the ocean at rest). The GPU model implementation allows faster than real time (FTRT) simulation for real large-scale problems. The large speed-ups obtained make HySEA code suitable for its use in Tsunami Early Warning Systems. The Italian TEWS at INGV (Rome) has adopted HySEA GPU code for its National System. The model is verified by hindcasting the wave behaviour in several benchmark problems. Numerical results for an earthquake-generated tsunami in the Mediterranean Sea is presented and computing time analysed. The interest of using higher order methods, analysing numerical schemes from first order up to order five, in the context of TEWS, is also addressed. Tsunami codes do not usually use higher than second order methods. It is demonstrated that this should idea should be revised.

Macias, Jorge; Castro, Manuel J.; González-Vida, José Manuel; de la Asunción, Marc; Ortega, Sergio

2014-05-01

 
 
 
 
261

Tsunami hazard in the Black Sea and the Azov Sea: a new tsunami catalogue  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Data on tsunamis occurring in the Black Sea and the Azov Sea from antiquity up to the present were updated, critically evaluated and compiled in the standard format developed since the 90's for the New European Tsunami Catalogue. Twenty nine events were examined but three of them, supposedly occurring in 557 AD, 815 AD and 1341 or 1343, were very likely falsely reported. Most of the remaining 26 events were generated in Crimea, offshore Bulgaria as well as offshore North Anatolia. For each of the 26 events examined, 22 events were classified as reliable ones receiving a score of 3 or 4 on a 4-grade reliability scale. Most of them were caused by earthquakes, such as the key event 544/545 of offshore Varna, but a few others were attributed either to aseismic earth slumps or to unknown causes. The tsunami intensity was estimated using the traditional 6-grade scale and the new 12-grade scale introduced by Papadopoulos and Imamura (2001. From 544/545 up to now, only two reliable events of high intensity K ? 7 have been reported, which very roughly indicates that the mean repeat time is ? 750 years. Five reliable tsunamis of moderate intensity 4 ? K < 7 have been observed from 1650 up to the present, which implies a recurrence of 72 years on the average. Although these calculations were based on a very small statistical sample of tsunami events, the repeat times found are consistent with the theoretical expectations from size-frequency relations. However, in the Black Sea there is no evidence of tsunamis of very high intensity (K ? 10 such as the AD 365, 1303 and 1956 ones associated with large earthquakes occurring along the Hellenic arc and trench, Greece, or the 1908 one in Messina strait, Italy. This observation, along with the relatively low tsunami frequency, indicates that the tsunami hazard in the Black Sea is low to moderate but not negligible. The tsunami hazard in the Azov Sea is very low because of the very low seismicity but also because of the shallow water prevailing there. In fact, only three possible tsunami events have been reported in the Azov Sea.

G. A. Papadopoulos

2011-03-01

262

Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence  

Science.gov (United States)

The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1 m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1 m is also analyzed that appears to be complete since approximately 1960. Various kernel density estimates used to determine the rate distribution with time indicate a prominent rate change in global tsunamis during the mid-1990s. Less prominent rate changes occur in the early- and mid-20th century. To determine whether these rate fluctuations are anomalous, the distribution of annual event numbers for the tsunami catalogue is compared to Poisson and negative binomial distributions, the latter of which includes the effects of temporal clustering. Compared to a Poisson distribution, the negative binomial distribution model provides a consistent fit to tsunami event numbers for the >1 m data set, but the Poisson null hypothesis cannot be falsified for the shorter duration >0.1 m data set. Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is also indicated by the distribution of interevent times for both data sets. Tsunami event clusters consist only of two to four events, in contrast to protracted sequences of earthquakes that make up foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequences. From past studies of seismicity, it is likely that there is a physical triggering mechanism responsible for events within the tsunami source 'mini-clusters'. In conclusion, prominent transient rate increases in the occurrence of global tsunamis appear to be caused by temporal grouping of geographically distinct mini-clusters, in addition to the random preferential location of global M >7 earthquakes along offshore fault zones.

Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Tom

2011-10-01

263

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment in the Mediterranean Sea  

Science.gov (United States)

Estimating the occurrence probability of natural disasters is critical for setting construction standards and, more generally, prioritizing risk mitigation efforts. Tsunami hazard in the Mediterranean region has traditionally been estimated by considering so-called "most credible" scenarios of tsunami impact for limited geographical regions, but little attention has been paid to the probability of any given scenario. In this study, we present the first probabilistic estimate of earthquake generated tsunami hazard for the entire Mediterranean and estimate the annual probability of exceeding a given run-up height at any coastal location in the region. Our PTHA methodology is based on the use of Monte-Carlo simulations and follows probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodologies closely. The PTHA is performed in four steps. First, earthquake and tsunami catalogues are analyzed in order to define a number of potential tsunami sources in the study area. For each of these sources, activity rates, maximum earthquake magnitude and faulting regimes are assigned. Following, a synthetic earthquake catalogue is established, based on the information about the sources. The third step is to calculate multiple synthetic tsunami scenarios for all potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes in the synthetic catalogue. The tsunami scenarios are then combined to generate hazard curves and maps. The highest hazard is found to be in the Eastern Mediterranean owing to earthquakes along the Hellenic Arc, but most of the Mediterranean coastline is prone to tsunami impact. Our method allows us to identify the relative contributions of potential source zones to the tsunami hazard at any given location, and to evaluate the corresponding tsunami travel times and thereby map the potential for issuing timely tsunami warnings. We find that the probability of a tsunami wave exceeding 5 m somewhere in the Mediterranean in the next 30 years is greater than 90 percent. This underlines the urgent need for a tsunami warning system in the region.

Sorensen, M. B.; Spada, M.; Babeyko, A. Y.; Wiemer, S.; Grünthal, G.

2011-12-01

264

Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence  

Science.gov (United States)

The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1m is also analyzed that appears to be complete since approximately 1960. Various kernel density estimates used to determine the rate distribution with time indicate a prominent rate change in global tsunamis during the mid-1990s. Less prominent rate changes occur in the early- and mid-20th century. To determine whether these rate fluctuations are anomalous, the distribution of annual event numbers for the tsunami catalogue is compared to Poisson and negative binomial distributions, the latter of which includes the effects of temporal clustering. Compared to a Poisson distribution, the negative binomial distribution model provides a consistent fit to tsunami event numbers for the >1m data set, but the Poisson null hypothesis cannot be falsified for the shorter duration >0.1m data set. Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is also indicated by the distribution of interevent times for both data sets. Tsunami event clusters consist only of two to four events, in contrast to protracted sequences of earthquakes that make up foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequences. From past studies of seismicity, it is likely that there is a physical triggering mechanism responsible for events within the tsunami source 'mini-clusters'. In conclusion, prominent transient rate increases in the occurrence of global tsunamis appear to be caused by temporal grouping of geographically distinct mini-clusters, in addition to the random preferential location of global M >7 earthquakes along offshore fault zones.

Geist, E. L.; Parsons, T.

2011-01-01

265

The Great 1787 Corralero, Oaxaca, Tsunami Uncovered  

Science.gov (United States)

In 28th March 1787, more than two centuries ago, a deadly tsunami (related to the the San Sixto earthquake) poured over the coast of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Chiapas, along more than 500 km of the Mexican Pacific coast and up to 6 km inland, the tsunami destroyed mostly farmlands, and livestock and few villages since the density of population was sparse at the time, according to known historical accounts. We report the first geological evidence from the Corralero (Alotengo) lagoon coastal area to support these historical accounts. A transect was made with coring and test pits every 100 m from the coastline and up to 1.6 km inland. The test pits showed an anomalous sand layer that had been deposited in a single event in the swales of a series of beach ridges. The anomalous layer is continuous along the transect, about a 1000 m-long, and is formed of coarse to medium sand, at about 36 to 64 cm depth. It thickness varies, averaging 28 cm in the middle of a swale. Based on the accounts of the 1787 earthquake (M 8.6) and tsunami, we deduced that this might be the evidence of its existence. As the only major tsunami described at that time, the San Sixto earthquake-triggered tsunami. We used the stratigraphy, grain size, microfossils (foraminifera and diatoms), magnetic properties such as magnetic susceptibility, remanent magnetization analyses to reveal the nature of this anomalous sand layer. These proxies support a sudden and rapid event, consisting of sands transported by an extreme sea-wave inland. Further analysis will confirm the estimated age of this event.

Ramirez-Herrera, M.; Lagos, M.; Goguitchaichrili, A.; Aguilar, B.; Machain-Castillo, M. L.; Caballero, M.; Ruíz-Fernández, A. C.; Suarez, G.; Ortuño, M.

2013-05-01

266

Characteristics of seismic and tsunami fragility of industries, revealed by the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake  

Science.gov (United States)

We have developed seismic and tsunami fragility curves of industries by using damage data of industrial companies, estimated strong motions and estimated tsunami heights of the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake. The damage data were obtained from 7,019 industrial companies, which responded to an inquiry survey to 30,000 companies carried out by the Regional Innovation Research Center of Tohoku University. As a damage level indicator for each company, we introduced a ratio of an economical damage of physical fixed assets excluding lands to previous balance of the physical fixed assets. The estimated strong motions of the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake at all the sites of the companies were from the database of the so-called QuiQuake system (Quick estimation system for earthquake maps triggered by observation records) operated by the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST). It is noted that the estimated data were obtained by taking account of seismic local site effects and the actually observed ones. The tsunami height data at each site of the company were obtained by interpolating the confirmed data compiled by the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami Joint Survey Group (2013). A frequency-damage level distribution for each seismic intensity is well correlated with a binominal distribution where the only parameter characterizing the distribution is an average value of the damage levels in each seismic intensity. The averaged damage levels of all the data for respective seismic intensity scales are 0.016 for SIj 5 lower, 0.042 for SIj 5 upper, 0.067 for SIj 6 lower, 0.092 for SIj 6 upper, and 0.16 for SIj 7, where SIj stands for the Japanese seismic intensity scale. The data were sorted into several classified industries and fragility curve for each classified industry is found to have a different character from each other. The tsunami fragilities are also obtained as a function of the tsunami height in the same way. The averaged damage levels of all the data for respective tsunami height are 0.051 for less than 3m, 0.23 for 0.3-1 m, 0.27 for 1-2 m, 0.43 for 2-3 m, and 0.50 for higher than 3m, respectively. These fragility curves can be useful not only to estimate economic damages for future huge earthquakes, but also to rapidly assess the damage just after earthquakes.

Kuwahara, Y.; Hasegawa, I.; Yoshimi, M.; Namegaya, Y.; Horikawa, H.; Nakai, M.; Masuda, S.

2013-12-01

267

On the accurate simulation of tsunami wave propagation  

Science.gov (United States)

A very important part of any tsunami early warning system is the numerical simulation of the wave propagation in the open sea and close to geometrically complex coastlines respecting bathymetric variations. Here we are interested in improving the numerical tools available to accurately simulate tsunami wave propagation on a Mediterranean basin scale. To this end, we need to accomplish some targets, such as: high-order numerical simulation in space and time, preserve steady state conditions to avoid spurious oscillations and describe complex geometries due to bathymetry and coastlines. We use the Arbitrary accuracy DERivatives Riemann problem method together with Finite Volume method (ADER-FV) over non-structured triangular meshes. The novelty of this method is the improvement of the ADER-FV scheme, introducing the well-balanced property when geometrical sources are considered for unstructured meshes and arbitrary high-order accuracy. In a previous work from Castro and Toro [1], the authors mention that ADER-FV schemes approach asymptotically the well-balanced condition, which was true for the test case mentioned in [1]. However, new evidence[2] shows that for real scale problems as the Mediterranean basin, and considering realistic bathymetry as ETOPO-2[3], this asymptotic behavior is not enough. Under these realistic conditions the standard ADER-FV scheme fails to accurately describe the propagation of gravity waves without being contaminated with spurious oscillations, also known as numerical waves. The main problem here is that at discrete level, i.e. from a numerical point of view, the numerical scheme does not correctly balance the influence of the fluxes and the sources. Numerical schemes that retain this balance are said to satisfy the well-balanced property or the exact C-property. This unbalance reduces, as we refine the spatial discretization or increase the order of the numerical method. However, the computational cost increases considerably this way. Here we show technical details on how to implement a well-balance ADER-FV scheme for the non-linear shallow water equation. Finally, we present numerical simulations of realistic scenarios where unstructured meshes and high-order accuracy are mandatory. [1] C.E. Castro and E.F. Toro. Solvers for the high-order Riemann problem for hyperbolic balance laws. J.Comput. Phys. 227(4):2481-2513, 2008. [2] C.E. Castro and M. Käser. Tsunami Simulation with the ADER-DG Numerical Method. 7-12 September 2008, ESC 2008, 31st General Assembly, Creta, Greece. [3] U.S. Department of Commerce. National oceanic and atmospheric administration, national geophysical data center. 2-minute gridded global relief data (etopo2v2), 2006.

Castro, C. E.; Käser, M.; Toro, E. F.

2009-04-01

268

UHF radar signature of a tsunami approaching coastal areas: modeling, experiments and application to tsunami warning  

Science.gov (United States)

Perhaps for the first time, satellite altimeters provided transects of the 12/26/04 tsunami elevation across the Indian Ocean, while the event unfolded. Here we use well-established Ultra High Frequency (UHF) radar technology, to develop a method that could provide warning of an incoming tsunami to coastal populations. When a tsunami reaches the continental shelf, the mostly depth-uniform current it induces greatly increases in speed (maybe up to 10-20 cm/s) and may induce significant Doppler shifts in ocean surface waves, particularly for those of smaller wavelength (high frequency). Given proper processing, such shifts could be identified by shore-based UHF radars as a tsunami signature and trigger a warning. Due to the tsunami slowing down with decreasing water depth, from the shelf break to shore, warning times of 5-15 minutes could be conceivable, depending on the shelf width, which could be sufficient to proceed with vertical evacuation in exposed areas. Here, we use a Higher Order Spectral (HOS) Method to model fully nonlinear sea states caused by wind, down to typical UHF wavelength of order 10 cm, as well as Doppler shifts and wave shoaling/refraction caused by slowly varying depth uniform currents. Such currents can be obtained for selected case studies, e.g., from tsunami propagation modeling, using a standard long wave model. UHF radar backscattering is modeled by a Boundary Element Method, solving Maxwell's equations, developed and validated in earlier work. We present initial results of this modeling study, in terms of spatio-temporal UHF radar signatures and their sentsitivity to governing physical parameters. We also present large-scale laboratory results for radar backscattering spectra measured during wave-current interaction experiments performed in the FIRST basin (La Seyne, France). We intend to apply our detection methodology to Southern Thailand, based on earlier modeling work we performed for the 12/26/04 tsunami propagation.

Grilli, S. T.; Dubosq, S.; Saillard, M.; Branger, H.

2007-12-01

269

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Nuclear Power Plants in Japan  

Science.gov (United States)

Tsunami hazard assessments for nuclear power stations (NPS) in Japan had been conducted by a deterministic method, but probabilistic methods are being adopted following the accident of Fukushima Daiichi NPS. The deterministic tsunami hazard assessment (DTHA), proposed by Japan Society of Civil Engineers in 2002 (Yanagisawa et al., 2007, Pageoph) considers various uncertainties by parameter studies. The design tsunami height at Fukushima NPS was set as 6.1 m, based on parameter studies by varying location, depth, and strike, dip and slip angles of the 1938 off-Fukushima earthquake (M 7.4). The maximum tsunami height for a hypothetical "tsunami earthquake" off Fukushima, similar to the 1896 Sanriku earthquake (Mt 8.2), and that for the 869 Jogan earthquake model (Mw 8.4) were estimated as 15.7 m and 8.9 m, respectively, before the 2011 accident (TEPCO report, 2012). The actual tsunami height at the Fukushima NPS on March 11, 2011 was 12 to 16 m. A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) has been also proposed by JSCE (An'naka et al., 2007, Pageoph), and recently adopted in "Implementation Standard of Tsunami Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of NPPs" published in 2012 by Atomic Energy Society of Japan. In PTHA, tsunami hazard curves, or probability of exeedance for tsunami heights, are constructed by integrating over aleatory uncertainties. The epistemic uncertainties are treated as branches of logic trees. The logic-tree branches for the earthquake source include the earthquake type, magnitude range, recurrence interval and the parameters of BPT distribution for the recurrent earthquakes. Because no "tsunami earthquake" was recorded off the Fukushima NPS, whether or not a "tsunami earthquake" occurs along the Japan trench off Fukushima, was a one of logic-tree branches, and the weight was determined by experts' opinions. Possibilities for multi-segment earthquakes are now added as logic-tree branches, after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, which is considered as a combination of Jogan-type interplate earthquake and a "tsunami earthquake". Uncertainties are also considered for tsunami numerical simulation, by assuming that the computed tsunami height is a median value of log-normal distribution, and probability distribution of exeedance in tsunami height is calculated. While the variance is introduced for taking account for aleatory uncertainty, choice of the variance value and the truncation limit are considered as epistemic uncertainties and included in the logic-tree branches. The PTHA provides probability of excedance for coastal tsunami height only. Other parameters such as wave force or current velocity are needed for the fragility assessments of NPS facilities, and these need to be calculated from scenario earthquakes.

Satake, K.

2012-12-01

270

Concept study of radar sensors for near-field tsunami early warning  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Off-shore detection of tsunami waves is a critical component of an effective tsunami early warning system (TEWS). Even more critical is the off-shore detection of local tsunamis, namely tsunamis that strike coastal areas within minutes after generation. In this paper we propose new concepts for near-field tsunami early detection, based on innovative and up-to-date microwave remote sensing techniques. We particularly introduce the NESTRAD (NEar-Space Tsunami RADar) concept, which consists of a...

Bo?rner, T.; Galletti, M.; Marquart, N. P.; Krieger, G.

2010-01-01

271

Modelling of Charles Darwin's tsunami reports  

Science.gov (United States)

Darwin landed at Valdivia and Concepcion, Chile, just before, during, and after a great 1835 earthquake. He described his impressions and results of the earthquake-induced natural catastrophe in The Voyage of the Beagle. His description of the tsunami could easily be read as a report from Indonesia or Sri Lanka, after the catastrophic tsunami of 26 December 2004. In particular, Darwin emphasised the dependence of earthquake-induced waves on a form of the coast and the coastal depth: ‘… Talcuhano and Callao are situated at the head of great shoaling bays, and they have always suffered from this phenomenon; whereas, the town of Valparaiso, which is seated close on the border of a profound ocean... has never been overwhelmed by one of these terrific deluges…' . He reports also, that ‘… the whole body of the sea retires from the coast, and then returns in great waves of overwhelming force ...' (we cite the Darwin's sentences following researchspace. auckland. ac. nz/handle/2292/4474). The coastal evolution of a tsunami was analytically studied in many publications (see, for example, Synolakis, C.E., Bernard, E.N., 2006. Philos. Trans. R. Soc., Ser. A, 364, 2231-2265; Tinti, S., Tonini, R. 205. J.Fluid Mech., 535, 11-21). However, the Darwin's reports and the influence of the coastal depth on the formation and the evolution of the steep front and the profile of tsunami did not practically discuss. Recently, a mathematical theory of these phenomena was presented in researchspace. auckland. ac. nz/handle/2292/4474. The theory describes the waves which are excited due to nonlinear effects within a shallow coastal zone. The tsunami elevation is described by two components: . Here is the linear (prime) component. It describes the wave coming from the deep ocean. is the nonlinear component. This component may become very important near the coastal line. After that the theory of the shallow waves is used. This theory yields the linear equation for and the weakly-nonlinear equation for . The last equation contains the forcing term which is generated by nonlinearity and depends on . The nonlinear shock-like solution for is constructed which is valid within the narrow coastal zone. Then the tsunami evolution near a coast is studied. It is found that the coastal evolution strongly depends on the profile of the bottom and the distance from the coastline. Far from this the wave surface is smooth and the wave is long enough. The wave profile begins to change quickly, if the coastal water is shallow. The steep (discontinuous) front of the tsunami can be generated. The water level reduces ahead of the front, or the ebb can appear there. Then this front begins to move away from the coast - into the ocean. This direction is opposite to the motion of the whole wave. The amplitude of the front is increased. The water wall is formed. This process explains the catastrophic effect of a tsunami, when a water-wall appears instantly. The wave, having two steep peaks, may be generated in the case of very shallow water. In contrast with this, the tsunami, practically, does not change, if the coastal water is deep. On the whole, the conclusions agree with the Darwin's reports.

Galiev, Shamil

2010-05-01

272

Interdisciplinary approach for Tsunami Hazard Mitigation in Algeria (West Mediterranean)  

Science.gov (United States)

Numerous tsunamis occurred in the West Mediterranean with magnitudes ranging from m=-1 to m=2 (Imamura-Iida scale). In Algeria, tsunamis are reported from the 14th century to 2003. Northern Algeria is located at the border between the African and the Eurasian plate. Destructive earthquakes with magnitude greater than 6.7 occurred 3 times in the last century. The North Algeria western region is characterized by the Murdjadjo anticline. A destructive earthquake hit Oran city on October 1790 (Intensity: X, West of Algeria). A tsunami was triggered in the Alboran sea. The Spanish and North Africa coasts were flooded. Run-up’s of 2 meters in height are reported in historical documents (Lopez Marinas and Salord, 1990). Here, the 1790 Alboran tsunami is studied from a modelling approach. The tsunami source is determined from the Okada equations and the tsunami propagation is estimated from the SWAN code (Mader, 2004). Results show that active thrust faulting related to the Murdjadjo structure is responsible for the tsunami. In the central part of Algeria, the Algiers city (capital of Algeria) was the location of destructive earthquakes (Intensity: X) that were followed by tsunamis in 1365 and in 1773. Flooding and run-up’s of 2 meters in height are reported in historical documents for the 1365 event. The central part of Algeria is the site of the Sahel anticline. A tsunami modelling is also performed considering the Sahel fault system as a potential tsunami source. Results show that it takes less than 15 minutes for the tsunami waves to reach the Spanish coast. Run-up’s are estimated lower than 2 meters in height. Discrepancies are attributed to the resolution of the bathymetry and the limits of the modelling. In the eastern region, historical reports also reveal run-up’s up to 5 meters in height after a tsunami triggered by a destructive earthquake in 1856 in Jijel city (intensity: VIII). From tsunami catalogs, seismic and tsunami data are plotted using a tsunami vulnerability parameter. The vulnerability index is estimated from the tsunami intensity and the seismic intensity using the Papadopoulos and the EMS scale. Results show that in Algeria, tsunami damages are minor relative to seismic damages. Since the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman tsunami, intergovernmental coordinated groups are working on an Indian and a Mediterranean tsunami alert system. To reduce vulnerability and increase resilience, it is very important to implement an efficiency warning system and a communication policy for fast urbanized coastal cities. In that context, lessons from the pacific case study are of major interest. Chile is marked by a very high seismic and tsunami hazard. The Iquique area is a threaten zone for a potential earthquake of magnitude greater than 8 and a local tsunami that could generate run-up’s up to 20 meters in height. In addition to the Pacific Tsunami Warning centre based in Hawaii, the Chile has elaborated a local tsunami warning centre. The Chilean case study is presented in discussion to highlight some lessons that may serve as an example for fast urbanized coastal cities that have to face local tsunamis.

Amir, L. A.; Cisternas, A.; Vigneresse, J. D.

2009-12-01

273

U.S. Warning System Detected the Sumatra Tsunami  

Science.gov (United States)

Although the December 2004 great Sumatra earthquake and the resulting tsunami were very distant from the northeast Pacific Ocean, the U.S. Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) array in the northeast Pacific successfully demonstrated high sensitivity and provides useful data for understanding the propagation of the tsunami. At the time of the tsunami, the Pacific DART network already was one of the most sophisticated tsunami detection systems in operation. The network, which then consisted of eight stations (seven U.S. and one Chilean), now consists of 11 stations (10 U.S. and one Chilean) [González et al., 2005] (Figure 1). Each station is equipped with a bottom pressure recorder (BPR) transmitting data acoustically from the ocean bottom to a surface buoy, which then passes the data to tsunami warning centers and other land stations by satellite communication links.

Gower, Jim; González, Frank

2006-03-01

274

Tsunami prevention and mitigation necessities and options derived from tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia  

Science.gov (United States)

Risk and vulnerability assessment is an important component of an effective End-to-End Tsunami Early Warning System and therefore contributes significantly to disaster risk reduction. Risk assessment is a key strategy to implement and design adequate disaster prevention and mitigation measures. The knowledge about expected tsunami hazard impacts, exposed elements, their susceptibility, coping and adaptation mechanisms is a precondition for the development of people-centred warning structures, local specific response and recovery policy planning. The developed risk assessment and its components reflect the disaster management cycle (disaster time line) and cover the early warning as well as the emergency response phase. Consequently the components hazard assessment, exposure (e.g. how many people/ critical facilities are affected?), susceptibility (e.g. are the people able to receive a tsunami warning?), coping capacity (are the people able to evacuate in time?) and recovery (are the people able to restore their livelihoods?) are addressed and quantified. Thereby the risk assessment encompasses three steps: (i) identifying the nature, location, intensity and probability of potential tsunami threats (hazard assessment); (ii) determining the existence and degree of exposure and susceptibility to those threats; and (iii) identifying the coping capacities and resources available to address or manage these threats. The paper presents results of the research work, which is conducted in the framework of the GITEWS project and the Joint Indonesian-German Working Group on Risk Modelling and Vulnerability Assessment. The assessment methodology applied follows a people-centred approach to deliver relevant risk and vulnerability information for the purposes of early warning and disaster management. The analyses are considering the entire coastal areas of Sumatra, Java and Bali facing the Sunda trench. Selected results and products like risk maps, guidelines, decision support information and other GIS products will be presented. The focus of the products is on the one hand to provide relevant risk assessment products as decision support to issue a tsunami warning within the early warning stage. On the other hand the maps and GIS products shall provide relevant information to enable local decision makers to act adequately concerning their local risks. It is shown that effective prevention and mitigation measures can be designed based on risk assessment results and information especially when used pro-active and beforehand a disaster strikes. The conducted hazard assessment provides the probability of an area to be affected by a tsunami threat divided into two ranked impact zones. The two divided impact zones directly relate to tsunami warning levels issued by the Early Warning Center and consequently enable the local decision maker to base their planning (e.g. evacuation) accordingly. Within the tsunami hazard assessment several hundred pre-computed tsunami scenarios are analysed. This is combined with statistical analysis of historical event data. Probabilities of tsunami occurrence considering probabilities of different earthquake magnitudes, occurrences of specific wave heights at coast and spatial inundation probability are computed. Hazard assessment is then combined with a comprehensive vulnerability assessment. Here deficits in e.g. people's ability to receive and understand a tsunami warning and deficits in their ability to respond adequately (evacuate on time) are quantified and are visualized for the respective coastal areas. Hereby socio-economic properties (determining peoples ability to understand a warning and to react) are combined with environmental conditions (land cover, slope, population density) to calculate the time needed to evacuate (reach a tsunami safe area derived through the hazard assessment). This is implemented using a newly developed GIS cost-distance weighting approach. For example, the amount of people affected in a certain area is dependent on expected tsunami intensity, inundated area, estimated tsuna

Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Steinmetz, T.; Mück, M.; Strunz, G.; Riedlinger, T.; Anwar, H. Z.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.

2009-04-01

275

Tsunami inundation scenarios and tsunami vulnerability assessment for the town of Alexandria, Egypt  

Science.gov (United States)

Historical catalogues indicate that Alexandria was severely affected in the past by several tsunami events. The tsunami hazard in that area is mainly due to far-field tectonic sources. The two most famous earthquakes that generated tsunamis whose impact was experienced also by Alexandria and the surrounding area are the 365 AD and the 1303 earthquakes, whose sources are still a matter of debate but are frequently located in correspondence with the western and eastern sectors of the Hellenic Arc. Nowadays, Alexandria is the second biggest city in Egypt as regards population (3.9 million), it is a key economic area in northern Africa and it has a very important tourist activity. Hence the proper assessment of tsunami hazard-to-risk must be regarded as an important task, which was partially undertaken in the very recent past by projects such as TRANSFER (EU-FP6). It is also worth mentioning that the overall eastern Mediterranean is one of the areas chosen by the EU-FP7 Project TRIDEC to test a new generation Tsunami Early Warning Decision Support System. We assess the hazard by performing numerical simulations of tsunami impact in Alexandria through the worst-case scenario technique. We identify three main seismic sources: the western Hellenic Arc (reference event 365 AD, magnitude 8.3), the eastern Hellenic Arc (reference event 1303, magnitude 8.0) and the Cyprus arc (hypothetical scenario with magnitude 8.0, inferred from the tectonic setting and the historical seismic catalogues). All the simulations and the inundation maps are computed by means of the UBO-TSUFD code, developed and maintained by the Tsunami Research team of the University of Bologna, which solves the non-linear shallow-water equations allowing for the computation of run-up and inundation on nested grids. For each of the considered scenarios we compute all the relevant tsunami metrics, i.e. water elevation, current speed, flow depth and momentum flux. We find that the case that produces the most relevant flooding in Alexandria is the eastern Hellenic Arc scenario, with waves reaching heights up to 5 meters. We also prepare an aggregated field for each relevant physical parameter, by choosing for each parameter the highest value in each computational grid point. The aggregated fields are finally used for a preliminary tsunami vulnerability assessment based on a methodology developed by the EU-FP6 SCHEMA Project, based on the adoption of a suitable building damage matrix and on water inundation depth.

Tinti, S.; Pagnoni, G.; Armigliato, A.; Tonini, R.

2012-04-01

276

Warnings and reactions to the Tohoku tsunami in Hawaii  

Science.gov (United States)

The 2011 Tohoku tsunami was the first chance within the USA to document and interpret large-scale response and protective action behavior with regard to a large, destructive tsunami since 1964. The 2011 tsunami offered a unique, short-lived opportunity to transform our understanding of individual and collective behavior in the US in response to a well-publicized tsunami warning and, in particular, to look at the complex interplay of official information sources, informal warnings and information-seeking in communities with significant physical impact from the 2011 tsunami. This study is focused in Hawaii, which suffered significant ($30 M), but localized damage, from the 2011 Tohoku tsunami and underwent a full-scale tsunami evacuation. The survey contrasts three Hawaiian communities which either experienced significant tsunami damage (Kona) or little physical impact (Hilo, Honolulu). It also contrasts a long-established local community with experience of evacuation, destruction and loss of life in two tsunamis (Hilo) with a metropolitan population with a large visitor presence (Honolulu) that has not experienced a damaging tsunami in decades. Many factors such as personal perceptions of risk, beliefs, past exposure to the hazard, forecast uncertainty, trust in information sources, channels of transmission of information, the need for message confirmation, responsibilities, obligations, mobility, the ability to prepare, the availability of transportation and transport routes, and an acceptable evacuation center affected behavior. We provide new information on how people reacted to warnings and tsunamis, especially with regard to social integration of official warnings and social media. The results of this study will strengthen community resilience to tsunamis, working with emergency managers to integrate strengths and weaknesses of the public responses with official response plans.

Houghton, B. F.; Gregg, C. E.

2012-12-01

277

Tsunami Early Warning: Introducing single frequency GPS receiver into the Tsunami Early Warning System  

Science.gov (United States)

M. Ramatschi (1), C. Falck (1), M. Bartsch (1), A. Merx (1), J. Hoeberechts (1), G. Schmidt (1) Abstract After the disastrous tsunami event in Sumatra in 2004 the German government initiated the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) which was inaugurated in 2008 and is now known as the Tsunami Early Warning System in Indonesia (INA-TEWS). Within GITEWS, some new technologies were introduced into the Tsunami early warning, such as geodetic dual frequency GNSS receiver, which are installed on open sea buoys, coastal tide gauges and inland reference stations. This technology is able to support tsunami early warning systems, e.g., by detection of ground motions due to earthquakes. The major drawback of this sensor type is its high expense. Under certain circumstances cost effective single frequency receiver could achieve the same quality, as long as the network topology allows a precise data processing. In our presentation we will review the GNSS part of GITEWS to demonstrate the integration of the newly designed, low power single frequency GPS sensor station with respect to the real-time data flow and the precise near real-time data processing. Technical aspects of data transmission will be addressed as well. Benefits of a small GPS sensor array located next to the Sumatra trench will be discussed in detail. (1) GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Telegrafenberg A 17, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany

Ramatschi, M.; Falck, C.

2009-12-01

278

Near-field tsunami amplification factors in the Kii Peninsula, Japan for Dense Oceanfloor Network for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET)  

Science.gov (United States)

We investigated the correlation between coastal and offshore tsunami heights by using data from the Dense Oceanfloor Network for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET) observational array of ocean-bottom pressure gauges in the Nankai trough off the Kii Peninsula, Japan. For near-field earthquakes, hydrostatic pressure changes may not accurately indicate sea surface fluctuations, because ocean-bottom pressure gauges are simultaneously displaced by crustal deformation due to faulting. To avoid this problem, we focused on the average waveform of the absolute value of the hydrostatic pressure changes recorded at all the DONET stations during a tsunami. We conducted a Monte Carlo tsunami simulation that revealed a clear relationship between the average waveforms of DONET and tsunami heights at the coast. This result indicates the possibility of accurate real-time prediction of tsunamis by use of arrays of ocean-bottom pressure gauges.

Baba, Toshitaka; Takahashi, Narumi; Kaneda, Yoshiyuki

2014-09-01

279

Validating Velocities in the GeoClaw Tsunami Model using Observations Near Hawaii from the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami  

CERN Document Server

The ability to measure, predict, and compute tsunami flow velocities is of importance in risk assessment and hazard mitigation. Substantial damage can be done by high velocity flows, particularly in harbors and bays, even when the wave height is small. Moreover, advancing the study of sediment transport and tsunami deposits depends on the accurate interpretation and modeling of tsunami flow velocities and accelerations. Until recently, few direct measurements of tsunami velocities existed to compare with model results. During the 11 March 2011 Tohoku Tsunami 328 current meters were in place around the Hawaiian Islands, USA, that captured time series of water velocity in 18 locations, in both harbors and deep channels, at a series of depths. We compare several of these velocity records against numerical simulations performed using the GeoClaw numerical tsunami model, based on solving the depth-averaged shallow water equations with adaptive mesh refinement, to confirm that this model can accurately predict velo...

Arcos, M E M

2014-01-01

280

Source processes for the probabilistic assessment of tsunami hazards  

Science.gov (United States)

The importance of tsunami hazard assessment has increased in recent years as a result of catastrophic consequences from events such as the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Japan tsunamis. In particular, probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) methods have been emphasized to include all possible ways a tsunami could be generated. Owing to the scarcity of tsunami observations, a computational approach is used to define the hazard. This approach includes all relevant sources that may cause a tsunami to impact a site and all quantifiable uncertainty. Although only earthquakes were initially considered for PTHA, recent efforts have also attempted to include landslide tsunami sources. Including these sources into PTHA is considerably more difficult because of a general lack of information on relating landslide area and volume to mean return period. The large variety of failure types and rheologies associated with submarine landslides translates to considerable uncertainty in determining the efficiency of tsunami generation. Resolution of these and several other outstanding problems are described that will further advance PTHA methodologies leading to a more accurate understanding of tsunami hazard.

Geist, Eric L.; Lynett, Patrick J.

2014-01-01

 
 
 
 
281

Comparison of Tsunami Hazards between Japan and Korea  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

On March 11{sup th}, 2011, a tremendous earthquake and tsunami occurred on the east coast of Japan. This 9.0 magnitude earthquake was the fifth greatest earthquake ever experienced on the planet. The most remarkable problem was that the Fukushima NPP sites, including their cores, were damaged. The term 'core damage' can be found in safety reports or textbooks on nuclear engineering. Therefore, in this study, a tsunami hazard assessment was performed for Korean NPP sites and was compared to a Japanese tsunami hazard assessment based on a previous tsunami PSA study

Kim, Min Kyu; Kim, Jung Han; Choi, In Kil [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2011-10-15

282

WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY FUNCTION FOR LARGE TSUNAMI WAVES?  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Most coastal locations have few if any records of tsunami wave heights obtained over various time periods. Still one sees reference to the 100- year and 500-year tsunamis. In fact, in the USA, FEMA requires that at all coastal regions, those wave heights due to tsunamis and hurricanes be specified. The same is required for stream flooding at any location where stream flooding is possible. How are the 100 and 500-year tsunami wave and stream flooding heights predicted and how defensible are they? This paper discusses these questions.

Harold G. Loomis

2006-01-01

283

UNDERSTANDING TSUNAMI RISK TO STRUCTURES: A CANADIAN PERSPECTIVE  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The potential catastrophic effects of tsunami-induced loading on built infrastructure in the vicinity of shorelines have been brought to the fore by recent global events. However, state- of-the-art building codes remain silent or provide conflicting guidance on designing near- shoreline structures in tsunami-prone areas. This paper focuses on tsunami-induced loading and its effect on structures within the Canadian context. The mechanics of tsunami-induced loading is described based on knowledge gained during reconnaissance visits after the 2004 south-east Asia Tsunami, as well as post-construction visits to countries significantly affected by the destructive forces of the tsunami. To gain an appreciation of the magnitude of tsunami-induced bores for a given seismic event along the western coastal region of Canada, structural analysis of a simple near-shoreline structure was performed considering a proposed loading protocol for tsunami-induced hydraulic bores. These loads were further compared to seismic loading in order to provide an estimation of the tsunami risk and its impact. The work was complemented by experimental results from a large-scale testing program conducted with the purpose of estimating the forces experienced on structural components. Square-, rectangular-, and diamond-shaped columns were used to study the influence of shape. Furthermore, results from debris impact testing are also discussed.

D. Palermo

2008-01-01

284

Source Processes for the Probabilistic Assessment of Tsunami Hazards  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The importance of tsunami hazard assessment has increased in recent years as a result of catastrophic consequences from events such as the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Japan tsunamis. In particular, probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA methods have been emphasized to include all possible ways a tsunami could be generated. Owing to the scarcity of tsunami observations, a computational approach is used to define the hazard. This approach includes all relevant sources that may cause a tsunami to impact a site and all quantifiable uncertainty. Although only earthquakes were initially considered for PTHA, recent efforts have also attempted to include landslide tsunami sources. Including these sources into PTHA is considerably more difficult because of a general lack of information on relating landslide area and volume to mean return period. The large variety of failure types and rheologies associated with submarine landslides translates to considerable uncertainty in determining the efficiency of tsunami generation. Resolution of these and several other outstanding problems are described that will further advance PTHA methodologies leading to a more accurate understanding of tsunami hazard.

Eric L. Geist

2014-06-01

285

Studies provide new insights into Japan's March 2011 tsunami  

Science.gov (United States)

New data, field studies, modeling efforts, and surveys are revealing a wealth of information about the devastating tsunami that followed the 11 March 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The earthquake and resulting tsunami caused massive destruction and the loss of about 20,000 lives. At the AGU Fall Meeting last week in San Francisco, Calif., scientists reported a variety of new insights about the tsunami and its effects and about tsunami defense mechanisms, ways to forecast tsunami inundation, and public perception of risk. For example, part of the reason the tsunami generated by the Tohoku quake was so large and destructive was that it was a “merging tsunami.” Merging tsunamis, which have been hypothesized but not previously observed with certainty, grow in size dramatically when seafloor topography alters the direction in which the waves are traveling and causes two waves to merge into a larger wave. The alteration of wave paths by complex ocean-floor topography makes it difficult to predict where the largest waves will strike land. “Tsunamis often destroy some coastal areas while leaving others with little damage,” explained Tony Song of the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, at a 5 December press conference.

Balcerak, Ernie

2011-12-01

286

GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System  

Science.gov (United States)

On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements. The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) (Rudloff et al., 2009) combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP) measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information. The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

Schöne, T.; Pandoe, W.; Mudita, I.; Roemer, S.; Illigner, J.; Zech, C.; Galas, R.

2011-03-01

287

GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements.

The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS (Rudloff et al., 2009 combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information.

The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

T. Schöne

2011-03-01

288

Qualitative Research Process  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This article provides with an overview of the qualitative research methods. Over last few decades, qualitative research is getting very popular in the fields of business, sociology, psychology and others. This article, in its introduction, gives a general idea about the qualitative research. Then it discusses the main differences between qualitative and quantitative research methods. The article also discusses about the ethical issues important for qualitative research. Lastly it discusses ab...

Hossain, Dewan Mahboob

2011-01-01

289

Coping with the Asian tsunami : perspectives from Tamil Nadu, India on the determinants of resilience in the face of adversity  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

The Asian tsunami of December 26, 2004 wreaked havoc along the southeastern coast of India and resulted in devastating losses. The high rates of long-term mental health consequences in adult survivors predicted immediately after the disaster have not been borne out by recent surveys. This qualitative study explored the psychological impact of the tsunami on survivors with a view to gaining insights into the ethno-cultural coping mechanisms of affected communities and evaluating resilience in the face of incomprehensible adversity. We conducted focus group discussions 9 months after the tsunami with two groups of fishermen, two groups of housewives, a group of village leaders and a group of young men in four affected villages of Nagapattinam district in Tamil Nadu, India. In spite of incomplete reconstruction of their lives, participants reconstructed meaning for the causes and the aftermath of the disaster in their cultural idiom. Qualitative changes in their social structure, processes and attitudes towards different aspects of life were revealed. Survivors valued their unique individual, social and spiritual coping strategies more than formal mental health services. Their stories confirm the assertion that the collective response to massive trauma need not necessarily result in social collapse but also includes positive effects. The results of this study suggest that interventions after disaster should be grounded in ethno-cultural beliefs and practices and should be aimed at strengthening prevailing community coping strategies.

Rajamani, Anto Praveen Rajkumar; Premkumar, Titus S

2008-01-01

290

137Cs in recent tsunami deposits - a potential tracer of selective tsunami sediment entrainment?  

Science.gov (United States)

The tsunami of 27 February, 2010 affected a 600 km long stretch of the central Chilean coastline. We documented the tsunami deposits 4 months after the event in 2010 and two years later in 2012. The broad coastal plain at La Trinchera was inundated ca. 430 m inland and up to 8 m above sea level. A ca. 10 cm thick layer of tsunami sand was deposited on top of marsh sediments. A comparison of this layer in 2010 and 2012 reveals a change in the relative mineral composition and related grain size. In 2010 the layer consisted of 90-93% heavy minerals, 1-4% quartz, 2-3% organics and 1-3% feldspar. In 2012 the relative abundances changed to 63-76% heavy minerals, 10-12% quartz, 16-20% organics and 5-7% feldspar, as a result of the erosion of parts of the finer grained heavy minerals. Furthermore, the thickness decreased to ca. 8 cm. The concentration of the artificial radionuclide 137Cs was recorded using high-resolution gamma-spectrometry. Especially in the northern hemisphere, 137Cs is a tracer for radioactive fallout emitted mainly during nuclear tests in the 1950s to 1960s, peaking around 1963, or nuclear bombing and accidents. In contrast, Cs-concentrations in the southern hemisphere are about four times lower (marine deposits due to Cs-dilution in sea water. For recent (younger than ca. 60 years) onshore tsunami sediments, a mixed Cs-signal is expected because a tsunami can entrain sediments from different depositional environments and different stratigraphic age levels. At La Trinchera, gamma-spectrometry revealed a 137Cs-content of 0.5 Bq/kg for the lower ca. 5 cm of the tsunami layer. The 137Cs-concentration of the upper 5 cm was below the detection limit of 0.1 Bq/kg. Even though the tsunami layer appears to be structureless, the Cs-content may help to distinguish between two distinctive depositional units within the layer. We suggest that the lower part represents reworked onshore deposits with higher Cs-concentrations compared to the upper part that may be composed of material from mainly marine sources. The sediments constituting the upper part of the tsunami deposit may have been stored in shallow marine environments for more than ca. 60 years. Hence, they do not exhibit 137Cs and were not affected by later Cs-fallout because the nuclides were diluted in the sea water. Two transport scenarios for the 2010 Chile tsunami at La Trinchera seem to be possible: 1) The head of an individual onshore flowing wave of the tsunami wave train picked up both beach sand and onshore sediments, whereas the tail entrained shallow marine sediments. As the front of the wave decelerated during its inland flow, these sediments with high Cs-contents were deposited first. Subsequently, marine sediments without a detectable Cs-content reached the shore with some time delay and were then deposited on top. 2) Assuming that a tsunami consists of several waves with different magnitudes, it is possible that an earlier, less energetic wave, entrained sediments onshore, mixed and deposited them. A later, more energetic wave was then able to entrain marine sediments and deposit them on top. Whichever scenario might be more realistic, the Cs-signal may help to document selective, time-dependent erosion and deposition during tsunami inundation.

Spiske, M.; Bahlburg, H.; Suckow, A.

2012-12-01

291

JMSE | Special Issue : Tsunami Science and Engineering  

... Valentin Heller Fluid Mechanics Section, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London, ...heller E-Mail: v.heller@imperial.ac.uk Phone: +44 20 7594 5901 Interests: landslide-tsunamis; landslide-generated impulse waves; ... Valentin HellerGuest Editor Submission Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once ...

292

New Edition of the UNESCO-IOC International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST) Post-Tsunami Survey Field Guide  

Science.gov (United States)

A subcommittee of the IUGG International Tsunami Commission was convened in 2010 to revise and update the 1998 UNESCO-IOC Post-Tsunami Survey Field Guide. The revised Guide addresses the developments in the tsunami field since 1998, the need to accommodate vastly increased amounts of data, and to incorporate disciplines that were not covered in the original guide. The Guide also advocates a systems-approach to assessing tsunami impacts that examines the full range of physical, environmental, and socio-economic effects and their interrelationship, bringing tsunami research efforts into a closer alignment with the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR). This Field Guide is intended to provide a flexible framework to facilitate the acquisition of critical data in the immediate aftermath of significant tsunamis and to balance the needs of international researchers with those of communities and agencies involved with response and recovery. It will be of use to a variety of people and organizations who may either participate in, assist in coordination, or host post-tsunami field surveys. It is hoped that this Guide will promote pre-event planning in countries at risk of tsunamis to reduce the stresses of developing organizational logistics in the post-emergency response phase and make the process of conducting an ITST easier and more productive for both participating researchers and host country organizations. A complete draft of the Guide will be presented at the meeting and members of the tsunami community invited to comment.

Dengler, L.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Yamamoto, M.; Borrero, J. C.; Dunbar, P. K.; Fritz, H. M.; Imamura, F.; Kong, L. S.; Koshimura, S.; McAdoo, B. G.; Satake, K.; Yalciner, A. C.; Yulianto, E.

2011-12-01

293

A new approach to UNESCO-IOC Post-Tsunami Field Surveys  

Science.gov (United States)

The International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST-Samoa, Oct 14-23, 2009), and the Report presented to the Government of Samoa (GoS) immediately upon conclusion, was an unprecedented science effort, setting a benchmark for future coordinated international post-tsunami science surveys that will support national early recovery efforts, and through tsunami research, improve tsunami mitigation and preparedness and so build a stronger resilience of coastal communities. By working together, we achieved outcomes much stronger and more valuable than any one of us could produce alone. For the first time, strong principles of professional conduct, mutual respect, collaboration, partnership, and concern for the welfare of the affected communities, were explictly embeded in the work plan. The 29 September 2009 regional tsunami resulted in loss of life and damage to human infrastructure and environmental systems. Common to many tsunamis, international scientists expressed the intent to undertake science assessments. Traditionally, these surveys, sometimes under UNESCO-IOC auspices, have been single-discipline, and conducted individually with moderate government coordination, so that afterward, the country was left with a large integration task to produce a single coherent study. This changed in Samoa, where an integrated and coordinated approach emerged. The ITST-Samoa was comprised of more than 60 scientists (seismologists, geologists, engineers, social scientists, modellers) from Australia, Fiji, French-Polynesia, Italy, Japan, New Zealand and USA who volunteered to work in collaboration with the GoS, Samoa Red Cross Society, Samoa scientists, and non-government representatives. They worked as one survey team to collect data and assist the GoS to prioritise short- and long-term risk reduction strategies. Their novel work (1) partnered with a regional university to include South Pacific expertise and with the GoS to ensure that (a) international scientists worked in a culturally-sensitive and appropriate way and, (b) outputs achieved were relevant to both GoS and ITST scientists; (2) was interdisciplinary and multisectoral to capture a thorough understanding; and (3) used a ‘coupled human-environment systems framework’ to examine vulnerability and resilience before, during and after the tsunami. ITST succeeded because of (1) the scientists’ strong desire to share their knowledge; (2) GoS’s belief that science will improve disaster risk reduction practices; (3) immediate engagement of UN and regional organizations to provide an umbrella framework for working together; (4) local support to provide the ITST’s command center and; (5) dedicated Science Coordinators to manage the scientific planning, logistics, information sharing, and Report preparation. In 2010, UNESCO/IOC will revise its Post-Tsunami Field Survey Guide to document ITST-Samoa best practices and so provide guidance for future International Tsunami Survey Teams.

Kong, L. S.; Steffen, J.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Biukoto, L.; Titimaea, A.; Thaman, R.; Vaa, R.

2009-12-01

294

Insights into the problems of communicating tsunami warnings and tsunami awareness education from decision loop analysis of behavior during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami  

Science.gov (United States)

Decision loop analysis allows us to interpret video and photograph evidence of the behavior of people in Sumatra, Thailand and Sri Lanka during the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, and to identify problems in communication of tsunami warnings to the general population. Decision loop analysis identifies four steps in the response to a threat: observation (of warning signs); orientation (recognition of the significance of those warning signs); decision (on what response to make); action (implementation of that response). In the case of the Indian Ocean tsunami, lack of tsunami awareness generally caused the decision loop to break down at the orientation stage, even where observation of the incoming waves was reinforced by shouted warnings. Where the orientation step was made early, evacuations were often successful. In the zone of strongest felt seismic intensity the population was subject to information overload (even though damage was often limited) and spent the time between the earthquake and the arrival of the tsunami responding to the earthquake: this "blitzkrieg" effect is a significant obstacle to near - source tsunami mitigation. In other cases, the loop broke down at the decision stage: frequently fatal decisions about where to go emphasize the need for clearly signposted tsunami evacuation routes. Decision loop analysis therefore highlights the different components needed in Education for Self Warning and Voluntary Evacuation (ESWAVE) as part of tsunami mitigation. The abundant video and photograph recordings of the 2004 tsunami provide much material for this approach, similar to the films of volcanic eruptions by Maurice and Katia Krafft that have been used to raise awareness of volcanic hazards after the 1985 Armero lahar disaster.

Fahey, P.; Day, S. J.

2007-12-01

295

Modern Sexism and Preference for a Coach among Select National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I Female Athletes: A Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

The purpose of this explanatory mixed methods research study was to examine the relationship of modern sexism to a female athlete's preference for a coach based on the sex of the coach. Female athletes (N = 155) from one National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Division I institution in the Northeastern United States participated in…

Greenawalt, Nancy Jo

2012-01-01

296

Impact of the 11 March, 2011, Tohoku earthquake and tsunami on the chemical industry  

Science.gov (United States)

An earthquake of magnitude 9.0 occurred off the Pacific coast of Tohoku, Japan, on March 11, 2011, at 14:46:23 Japan Standard Time (5:46:23 UTC). It generated a tsunami 130 km off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture in northeast Japan, which inundated over 400 km2 of land. The death toll has reached >15,800 according to the Japan National Policy Agency with over 3,700 still missing as of 26 October 2011. Significant damage to or complete collapse of houses also resulted. The earthquake generated strong ground motion; nevertheless most damage was caused by the tsunami, which is a tribute to the effectiveness of Japan's earthquake damage reduction measures in saving lives and property. Nonetheless, the direct losses amount to more than 200 billion US dollars (not counting the costs of the accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant). The earthquake and tsunami had a significant impact on all types of industry, and in particular on the petrochemical and chemical industry in the affected areas, resulting in hazardous-materials releases, fires and explosions and forcing businesses to interrupt production. These so-called Natech accidents pose an immediate or even long-term threat to the population and the environment, and can also interrupt the supply chain. Overall, the earthquake and tsunami took over 30% of Japan's oil production offline, and two refineries are still not or only partially in operation to repair the damage caused by the fires and explosions. The fire-fighting efforts could only be started 4 days after the disaster due to the absence of personnel that had been evacuated and because of the continuing tsunami alerts. In one of the affected refineries the fires could only be extinguished 10 days after the disasters. Many petrochemical and chemical companies reported problems either due to damage to facilities or because of power outages. In fact, in facilities that suffered no or only minor damage the resuming of operations was hampered by continuous aftershocks, tsunami alerts, the evacuation of personnel, a lack of utilities (water, electricity), damage to infrastructures (berths, roads etc.) and the shortage of raw materials. The Tohoku disaster showed that even prepared countries are at risk and consequently many lessons can be learned for future Natech prevention and mitigation. An in-depth analysis is required to single out the main reasons for the widespread industrial damage and downtime. This analysis, based on information from companies and authorities, in addition to a field visit to the affected areas, is presented.

Krausmann, E.; Cruz, A. M.

2012-04-01

297

Applying and validating the PTVA-3 Model at the Aeolian Islands, Italy: assessment of the vulnerability of buildings to tsunamis  

Science.gov (United States)

The volcanic archipelago of the Aeolian Islands (Sicily, Italy) is included on the UNESCO World Heritage list and is visited by more than 200 000 tourists per year. Due to its geological characteristics, the risk related to volcanic and seismic activity is particularly high. Since 1916 the archipelago has been hit by eight local tsunamis. The most recent and intense of these events happened on 30 December 2002. It was triggered by two successive landslides along the north-western side of the Stromboli volcano (Sciara del Fuoco), which poured approximately 2-3×107 m3 of rocks and debris into the Tyrrhenian Sea. The waves impacted across the whole archipelago, but most of the damage to buildings and infrastructures occurred on the islands of Stromboli (maximum run-up 11 m) and Panarea. The aim of this study is to assess the vulnerability of buildings to damage from tsunamis located within the same area inundated by the 2002 event. The assessment is carried out by using the PTVA-3 Model (Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment, version 3). The PTVA-3 Model calculates a Relative Vulnerability Index (RVI) for every building, based on a set of selected physical and structural attributes. Run-up values within the area inundated by the 2002 tsunami were measured and mapped by the Istituto Italiano di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) and the University of Bologna during field surveys in January 2003. Results of the assessment show that if the same tsunami were to occur today, 54 buildings would be affected in Stromboli, and 5 in Panarea. The overall vulnerability level obtained in this analysis for Stromboli and Panarea are "average"/"low" and "very low", respectively. Nonetheless, 14 buildings in Stromboli are classified as having a "high" or "average" vulnerability. For some buildings, we were able to validate the RVI scores calculated by the PTVA-3 Model through a qualitative comparison with photographs taken by INGV and the University of Bologna during the post-tsunami survey. With the exception of a single structure, which is partially covered by a coastal dune on the seaward side, we found a good degree of accuracy between the PTVA-3 Model forecast assessments and the actual degree of damage experienced by buildings. This validation of the model increases our confidence in its predictive capability. Given the high tsunami risk for the archipelago, our results provide a framework for prioritising investments in prevention measures and addressing the most relevant vulnerability issues of the built environment, particularly on the island of Stromboli.

Dall'Osso, F.; Maramai, A.; Graziani, L.; Brizuela, B.; Cavalletti, A.; Gonella, M.; Tinti, S.

2010-07-01

298

Geographical Information Analysis of Tsunami Flooded Area by the Great East Japan Earthquake Using Mobile Mapping System  

Science.gov (United States)

The great earthquake occurred in Tohoku District, Japan on 11th March, 2011. This earthquake is named "the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake", and the damage by this earthquake is named "the Great East Japan Earthquake". About twenty thousand people were killed or lost by the tsunami of this earthquake, and large area was flooded and a large number of buildings were destroyed by the tsunami. The Geospatial Information Authority of Japan (GSI) has provided the data of tsunami flooded area interpreted from aerial photos taken just after the great earthquake. This is fundamental data of tsunami damage and very useful for consideration of reconstruction planning of tsunami damaged area. The authors analyzed the relationship among land use, landform classification, DEMs data flooded depth of the tsunami flooded area by the Great East Japan Earthquake in the Sendai Plain using GIS. Land use data is 100 meter grid data of National Land Information Data by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transportation and Tourism (MLIT). Landform classification data is vector data of Land Condition Map produced by GSI. DEMs data are 5 meters grid data measured with LiDAR by GSI after earthquake. Especially, the authors noticed the relationship between tsunami hazard damage and flooded depth. The authors divided tsunami damage into three categories by interpreting aerial photos; first is the completely destroyed area where almost wooden buildings were lost, second is the heavily damaged area where a large number of houses were destroyed by the tsunami, and third is the flooded only area where houses were less destroyed. The flooded depth was measured by photogrammetric method using digital image taken by Mobile Mapping System (MMS). The result of these geographic analyses show the distribution of tsunami damage level is as follows: 1) The completely destroyed area was located within 1km area from the coastline, flooded depth of this area is over 4m, and no relationship between damaged area and landform classification. 2) The heavily damaged area was observed up to 3 or 4km from the coastline. Flooded depth of this area is over 1.5m, and there is a good relationship between damaged area and height of DEMs. 3) The flood only area was observed up to 4 or 5km from the coastline. Flooded depth of this area was less than 1.5m, and there is a good relationship between damaged area and landform. For instance, a certain area in valley plain or flooded plain was not affected by the tsunami, even though an area with almost the same height in coastal plain or delta was flooded. These results mean that it is important for tsunami disaster management to consider not only DEMs but also landform classification.

Koarai, M.; Okatani, T.; Nakano, T.; Nakamura, T.; Hasegawa, M.

2012-07-01

299

Computerized Workstation for Tsunami Hazard Monitoring  

Science.gov (United States)

We present general structure and functionality of the proposed Computerized Workstation for Tsunami Hazard Monitoring (CWTHM). The tool allows interactive monitoring of hazard, tsunami risk assessment, and mitigation - at all stages, from the period of strong tsunamigenic earthquake preparation to inundation of the defended coastal areas. CWTHM is a software-hardware complex with a set of software applications, optimized to achieve best performance on hardware platforms in use. The complex is calibrated for selected tsunami source zone(s) and coastal zone(s) to be defended. The number of zones (both source and coastal) is determined, or restricted, by available hardware resources. The presented complex performs monitoring of selected tsunami source zone via the Internet. The authors developed original algorithms, which enable detection of the preparation zone of the strong underwater earthquake automatically. For the so-determined zone the event time, magnitude and spatial location of tsunami source are evaluated by means of energy of the seismic precursors (foreshocks) analysis. All the above parameters are updated after each foreshock. Once preparing event is detected, several scenarios are forecasted for wave amplitude parameters as well as the inundation zone. Estimations include the lowest and the highest wave amplitudes and the least and the most inundation zone. In addition to that, the most probable case is calculated. In case of multiple defended coastal zones, forecasts and estimates can be done in parallel. Each time the simulated model wave reaches deep ocean buoys or tidal gauge, expected values of wave parameters and inundation zones are updated with historical events information and pre-calculated scenarios. The Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) software package is used for mathematical simulation. The authors suggest code acceleration for deep water wave propagation. As a result, performance is 15 times faster compared to MOST, original version. Performance gain is achieved by compiler options, use of optimized libraries, and advantages of OpenMP parallel technology. Moreover, it is possible to achieve 100 times code acceleration by using modern Graphics Processing Units (GPU). Parallel evaluation of inundation zones for multiple coastal zones is also available. All computer codes can be easily assembled under MS Windows and Unix OS family. Although software is virtually platform independent, the most performance gain is achieved while using the recommended hardware components. When the seismic event occurs, all valuable parameters are updated with seismic data and wave propagation monitoring is enabled. As soon as the wave passes each deep ocean tsunameter, parameters of the initial displacement at source are updated from direct calculations based on original algorithms. For better source reconstruction, a combination of two methods is used: optimal unit source linear combination from preliminary calculated database and direct numerical inversion along the wave ray between real source and particular measurement buoys. Specific dissipation parameter along with the wave ray is also taken into account. During the entire wave propagation process the expected wave parameters and inundation zone(s) characteristics are updated with all available information. If recommended hardware components are used, monitoring results are available in real time. The suggested version of CWTHM has been tested by analyzing seismic precursors (foreshocks) and the measured tsunami waves at North Pacific for the Central Kuril's tsunamigenic earthquake of November 15, 2006.

Lavrentiev-Jr, Mikhail; Marchuk, Andrey; Romanenko, Alexey; Simonov, Konstantin; Titov, Vasiliy

2010-05-01

300

Uncertainties of Tsunami Wave Height and Flow Velocity in the Tsunami Simulation due to Dynamic Fault Rupture Effects  

Science.gov (United States)

In 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake generated the tsunami that exceeded our expectations and caused massive damage in the Northeast coast of Japan. One of the methods to avoid such unexpected event is to understand the uncertainties of tsunami wave height and flow velocity from an output of a tsunami simulation. There are two categories of fault parameters in the tsunami simulation: static parameters and dynamic parameters. Static parameters are such as dip, slip and strike angle. On the other hand, dynamic parameters are rupture velocity and rise time. So far, uncertainties of tsunami wave height due to static parameters has been studying by some previous studies. However, the effect of dynamic parameters are still unclear. In this study, we focused on the dynamic parameters and quantitatively assessed on how dynamic parameters in the tsunami simulation effect on the tsunami wave height and the flow velocity. Evaluation methods for uncertainties of the tsunami wave height and the flow velocity are as follows. Firstly, five unit faults were set. Tsunami simulations with rupture velocity were generated for 100 cases by conducting monte-carlo simulation based on probabilistic density function from gathered past seismic data. Rupture starting points were set to each unit fault (5 cases). Tsunami simulation were performed in a way that rupture spread radially,. Tsunami wave height and flow velocity data were collected at 58 fixed points and calculated the variability (log normal standard deviation) from median value of them. Throughout the statistical analysis of the above simulation cases, we found that these uncertainties due to dynamic fault rupture effects changed significantly depending on water depth and the location against the fault rupture. Uncertainties of tsunami wave height and flow velocity were almost zeroin the area located in strike direction of the fault rupture in any case of water depth. On the other hand, uncertainties of the tsunami wave height and the flow velocity were ?=0.15 at a maximum in the area that is parpendicular to strike direction of the fault rupture. As the water depth was deep, uncertainties became almost linearly large. From the sensitivity experiment by changing the dislocation of faults, uncertainties did not change significantly. In addition, we also conducted experimens that numbers of the sub faults were reduced to three faults. In that case, max uncertainties of the tsunami wave height and the flow velocity were almost the same value, but uncertainties changed locally compared with in the case of five small sub faults. The results in this study are supposed to be taken into account in the probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) as the aleatory uncertainty so that the PTHA is expected to be improved for the future.

Fukutani, Y.; Suppasri, A.; Imamura, F.

2013-12-01

 
 
 
 
301

Model Results For The 23 June, 2001 Peruvian Tsunami  

Science.gov (United States)

Tsunami generated by the June 23, 2001 Peruvian earthquake devastated Peru- vian coast near the epicenter and was recorded throughout Pacific by coastal tide-gages. This widespread impact motivated modeling efforts to produce re- alistic tsunami simulation of this event. Preliminary results were produced by the TIME center using two resident numerical models, TUNAMI-2 and MOST. Both models were used to produce preliminary simulation shortly after the earthquake, and first results were posted on the Internet a day after the event (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tsunami/peru_pmel.html). These numerical results aimed to quantify the magnitude of the tsunami and, to certain extend, to guide the post- tsunami survey. The first simulations have been revised using new data about the seis- mic source and the results of the post-tsunami survey by the International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST). We use the ITST measurements in heavily damaged Camana area to constrain our inundation model. Measured water-level data along the topo- graphic transects is used to constrain the inundation model. Preliminary numerical analysis of tsunami inundation will be presented.

Titov, V.; Borrero, J.; Koshimura, S.; Ortiz, M.

302

Preliminary Simulation Results of the 23 June, 2001 Peruvian Tsunami  

Science.gov (United States)

The tsunami generated by the June 23, 2001 Peruvian earthquake devastated a 50--km section of coast near the earthquake epicenter and was recorded on tide-gages throughout the Pacific. The coastal town of Camana sustained the most damage with tsunami waves penetrating up to 1--km inland and runup exceeding 5--m. The extreme local effects and widespread impact motivated modeling efforts to produce a realistic tsunami simulation of this event. Preliminary results were produced by the TIME center using two resident numerical models, TUNAMI--2 and MOST. Both models were used to produce preliminary simulations shortly after the earthquake, and first results were posted on the Internet a day after the event (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tsunami/peru_pmel.html). These numerical results aimed to quantify the magnitude of the tsunami and, to certain extent, to guide the post-tsunami survey. The first simulations have been revised using new data about the seismic source and the results of the post-tsunami survey. Measured inundation distances, flow depths, and runup along topographic transects are used to constrain the inundation model. Preliminary numerical analysis of tsunami inundation will be presented.

Titov, V. V.; Koshimura, S.; Ortiz, M.; Borrero, J.

2001-12-01

303

Medieval forewarning of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in Thailand  

Science.gov (United States)

Recent centuries provide no precedent for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, either on the coasts it devastated or within its source area. The tsunami claimed nearly all of its victims on shores that had gone 200 years or more without a tsunami disaster. The associated earthquake of magnitude 9.2 defied a Sumatra-Andaman catalogue that contains no nineteenth-century or twentieth-century earthquake larger than magnitude 7.9 (ref. 2). The tsunami and the earthquake together resulted from a fault rupture 1,500 km long that expended centuries' worth of plate convergence. Here, using sedimentary evidence for tsunamis, we identify probable precedents for the 2004 tsunami at a grassy beach-ridge plain 125 km north of Phuket. The 2004 tsunami, running 2 km across this plain, coated the ridges and intervening swales with a sheet of sand commonly 5-20 cm thick. The peaty soils of two marshy swales preserve the remains of several earlier sand sheets less than 2,800 years old. If responsible for the youngest of these pre-2004 sand sheets, the most recent full-size predecessor to the 2004 tsunami occurred about 550-700 years ago. ??2008 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Jankaew, K.; Atwater, B. F.; Sawai, Y.; Choowong, M.; Charoentitirat, T.; Martin, M. E.; Prendergast, A.

2008-01-01

304

A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Western Australia  

Science.gov (United States)

The occurrence of the Indian Ocean Tsunami on 26 December, 2004 has raised concern about the difficulty in determining appropriate tsunami mitigation measures in Australia, due to the lack of information on the tsunami threat. A first step in the development of such measures is a tsunami hazard assessment, which gives an indication of which areas of coastline are most likely to experience tsunamis, and how likely such events are. Here we present the results of a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Western Australia (WA). Compared to other parts of Australia, the WA coastline experiences a relatively high frequency of tsunami occurrence. This hazard is due to earthquakes along the Sunda Arc, south of Indonesia. Our work shows that large earthquakes offshore of Java and Sumba are likely to be a greater threat to WA than those offshore of Sumatra or elsewhere in Indonesia. A magnitude 9 earthquake offshore of the Indonesian islands of Java or Sumba has the potential to significantly impact a large part of the West Australian coastline. The level of hazard varies along the coast, but is highest along the coast from Carnarvon to Dampier. Tsunamis generated by other sources (e.g., large intra-plate events, volcanoes, landslides and asteroids) were not considered in this study.

Burbidge, David; Cummins, Phil R.; Mleczko, Richard; Thio, Hong Kie

2008-12-01

305

TSUNAMI PROPAGATION OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC: DISPERSIVE AND NONDISPERSIVE MODELS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Hydrostatic (HY and non-hydrostatic (NHY tsunami physics is compared by application to the Kuril Island Tsunami (KIT of November 2006 and the Japan Tsunami (JT of March 2011. Our purpose is to study the significance of dispersive vs. non-dispersive long waves on global tsunami propagation. A tool which is well suited to revealing tsunami wave transformations is the energy flux. Expressions for dispersive and non-dispersive fluxes have been formulated. This provides an understanding of the role of dispersion in tsunami propagation and dissipation. Separating the pressure field into two parts i.e., HY and NHY shows that dispersive waves extract energy from the main wave, directing the dispersive energy flux away from the wave front. The major result of the application of the energy flux to non-dispersive waves is an enhanced understanding of later tsunami wave train arrivals at distant points – with arrivals sometimes occurring several hours after an initial forerunner wave. Computations show that strong differences between non-dispersive and dispersive waves develop along the length of the main energy beam. This has important consequences for accurate tsunami prediction and warnings.

Juan Horrillo

2012-01-01

306

Ødela tsunamien økosystemet? :Did the tsunami destroy the ecosystem?  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The tsunami in the Indian Ocean west of Sumatra on December 26, 2004,hit Indonesia, especially the Province of Aceh, with enormous force. Human and material losses were great, and there were fears that the tsunami had also damaged the marine ecosystem, destroying the basis of the regional fi sheries in the process.

Serigstad, Bjørn

2007-01-01

307

Travel Time Atlas and the Role of Neural Networks for an Early Warning System for Tsunamis in the Indian Ocean  

Science.gov (United States)

Following the devastating tsunami on 26th December 2004, the nations around the Indian Ocean rim have been working together to establish a tsunami warning system (TWS). A critical component for this TWS is the availability of tsunami travel times (TTT) to various coastal and island locations around the Indian Ocean rim. Without the TTT information, no expected times of arrival (ETA) can be included in a real-time tsunami warning. The importance of ETA for the TWS motivated the computation of arrival times of the 2004 tsunami to 250 representative coastal locations from 35 countries. Numerical accuracy in computation of arrival times for the 2004 tsunami was verified from in-situ tide gauge data and satellite track data from Jason-I and Topex/Poseidon in the Indian Ocean and from coastal stations off South Africa. The resulting TTT atlas showed the feasibility of developing a TWS in a relatively short time-span which is a pre-cursor for developing an information dissemination center in the long term. The TTT atlas was widely distributed as an information database to reduce warning times in event of a future tsunami in the Indian Ocean as well as promote awareness amongst the populations dwelling in the littoral belts of the south-Asian countries. Improvements to the TWS have been made by implementing an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for prediction of ETA at different coastal destinations. The algorithm uses earthquake locations and pre-computed travel times from the ETA database. The advantage of using ANN in a real-time tsunami travel time prediction is that it produces ETA much faster than the TTT atlas and also preserves the consistency of prediction. The ANN model performs rapid computation of ETA (on average of 4 seconds) in comparison to the conventional TTT atlas which takes approximately 60 minutes of computation time for an undetected earthquake location. The correlation is found to be very high for the new data as observed from different combinations of training and testing the ANN. The validation of the ANN model is found to be satisfactory and reliable which suggests its applicability for real-time prediction. The implementation of the ANN model into the TWS would provide faster computation of ETA resulting in critical earlier issuances of warning messages to coastal destinations. The proposed method is expected to have direct practical application for a real-time TWS for the Indian Ocean as well as for the global oceans.

Kumar, B.; Kumar, R.; Dube, S.; Murty, T.; Gangopadhyay, A.; Chaudhuri, A.; Rao, A.

2008-12-01

308

Historical Tsunami Deposits on the Sanriku Coast, Japan  

Science.gov (United States)

At least six layers of tsunami deposit during the recent 500 years were found in a small valley on the Sanriku coast, just north of Taro (Miyako city, Iwate prefecture), where the 2011 tsunami heights from the Tohoku earthquake ranged from 17 to 34 m. The Sanriku coast is a Ria coast characterized by sawtooth-shaped coastline. Because of the steep-sloped valleys, alluvial deposits are very limited and tsunami traces are difficult to be preserved. Around the survey site, however, a marsh is separated from open sea by a beach ridge with the maximum altitude of about 4.5 m above mean sea level. In the marsh, well-decomposed peat has been developed. The sand deposits were brought by large tsunamis over the beach ridge and preserved in the marsh peat. We conducted drilling survey using the 3-m long Geo-slicer, trench survey, and outcrop observations. We sketch the sedimentary structure, conduct grain size analysis, reconstruct paleo-environment from microfossils, estimate the deposition age on the basis of radiocarbon dating and 210Pb/137Cs analysis, and correlate them with historical tsunamis. The uppermost sand layer which covers the ground surface is probably due to the 2011 tsunami. At least six event deposit layers can be identified in Geo-slicer's sample. Some sandy layers show normal or inverse grading structures and/or lamination, indicating a strong water flow. Some sand layers can be traced up to 400 m inland from the coast, while others can be identified only near the coast. The sandy layers well correlate with abrupt increases in marine microfossils floating near the sea surface. We use it as indicators of inflow of sea water into the marsh. The bottom peat layer of Geo-slicer's sample shows the AD 15th century, indicating that all the sand layers are from tsunamis in historical age during the recent 500 years. These tsunami deposits can be correlated with local tsunamis or distant tsunamis on the basis of radiocarbon dating and 210Pb/137Cs analysis. According to Japanese historical documents, candidates of tsunamis are from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, the 1933 and 1896 Sanriku earthquakes, the 1793 Miyagi-oki earthquake, the 1763 Aomori-oki earthquake, the 1677 Boso-oki earthquake, and the 1611 Sanriku earthquake. Some trans-Pacific tsunamis such as the 1700 Cascadia and 1960 Chilean tsunamis also caused severe damage along the Sanriku coast and these tsunami deposits may be also preserved.

Goto, T.; Satake, K.; Sugai, T.; Ishibe, T.; Harada, T.; Murotani, S.

2013-12-01

309

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the coasts of Italy: preliminary results in the frame of the RITMARE Project  

Science.gov (United States)

The five-year project called RITMARE ("La Ricerca ITaliana per il MARE") is a very ambitious national research and innovation program focussed on all aspects relevant to marine and coastal research, technology and management, with emphasis on networking and international cooperation. The program objectives fit into the overall European Commission vision documents and strategic programs and cover five major themes, one of which deals with technologies for the sustainable management of the coastal areas. The theme is further articulated in work-packages and specific actions, including the systematic and quantitative tsunami hazard assessment for the whole Italian coastlines. The University of Bologna takes part in the project RITMARE, being a member of the University Consortium Conisma, that is a direct partner in the project. We present here some preliminary results obtained by the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna (TRT-UNIBO) by applying a modified version of a hybrid statistical-deterministic approach to the southern Tyrrhenian, Ionian and Adriatic coasts. A widely adopted approach formulates the problem of the tsunami hazard assessment in terms of the probability of occurrence of tsunamigenic earthquakes, which is appropriate in basins where the number of known historical tsunamis is too scarce to be used in reliable statistical analyses, and where the largest part of tsunamis have tectonic origin. The TRT-UNIBO approach starts by building a single homogeneous earthquake catalogue covering the whole national territory, as well as the adjacent areas that are believed to have the potential to produce tsunamis with relevant far-field effects along the Italian coasts. A proper statistical analysis of the catalogue allows retrieving the earthquake occurrence rate at a regional scale as well as in a set of cells in which the studied geographical domain is divided into. The final result of the statistical analysis is the computation for each cell of the parameters of the truncated cumulative Gutenberg-Richter law. A second step consists in determining the tsunamigenic potential by using suitable relationships between the earthquake magnitude and the initial disturbance of the sea in each cell. For each magnitude and hence for each initial condition offshore, the tsunami height at the coast is computed through empirical amplification formulas. The output of this second step is given by the spatial distribution of the minimum magnitude needed to produce tsunami heights at the coast larger than a given threshold. The results coming from the two steps are finally combined to determine the number and distribution of tsunamigenic earthquakes expected to occur over a given time interval and to produce tsunami heights larger than a given threshold along any stretch of the Italian coastline. We will present maps relative to different tsunami height thresholds over a suitable time interval (f.i. 10,000 years) and discuss the consistency with the information retrievable from the Euro-Mediterranean tsunami catalogue of the TRANSFER Project.

Armigliato, Alberto; Tinti, Stefano; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Zaniboni, Filippo; Bressan, Lidia

2013-04-01

310

Development of guideline for assessing large tsunami countermeasures  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

On March 11, 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake and subsequent Tsunami caused a nuclear accident in Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plants (NPPs), which led to massive social fear of the NPPs. The Japan Society of Maintenology organized a special committee to develop a methodology of assessing the safety of Japanese NPPs that the short-term measures against large tsunami had been taken after March 11. The vigorous study and discussion resulted in the 'Guideline for Assessing Large Tsunami Countermeasures in Japanese Nuclear Power Plants'. By applying it, robustness of NPPs (37 units not including TEPCO plants) against large tsunami had been assessed. This article explained background of preparing the guideline, its contents, and evaluated results by applying it, and further needed activities. Waterproofing and multiplicity of batteries and reinforcement of external power such as small-sized gas turbines installed near NPPs would contribute much to upgrade safety of NPPs against large tsunami. (T. Tanaka)

311

2004 Indian Ocean tsunami flow velocity measurements from survivor videos  

Science.gov (United States)

The tsunami of 26th December 2004 severely affected Banda Aceh along the North tip of Sumatra (Indonesia) at a distance of 250 km from the epicenter of the magnitude 9.0 earthquake. This tsunami flow velocity analysis focused on two survivor videos recorded within Banda Aceh more than 3 km from the open ocean. The exact locations of the tsunami eyewitness video recordings were revisited by the survey team between February 22 and 25, 2005 to record camera calibration ground control points. The motion of the camera during the recordings was determined. The individual video images were rectified with a direct linear transformation (DLT) assuming a planar water surface at the level. Finally a cross-correlation based particle image velocimetry (PIV) analysis was applied to the rectified video images to determine instantaneous tsunami flow velocity fields. The measured tsunami flow velocities were within the range of 2 to 5 m/s.

Fritz, Hermann M.; Borrero, Jose C.; Synolakis, Costas E.; Yoo, Jeseon

2006-12-01

312

THE TSUNAMI ASSESSMENT MODELLING SYSTEM BY THE JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The Tsunami Assessment Modeling System was developed by the European Commission, Joint Research Centre, in order to serve Tsunami early warning systems such as the Global Disaster Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS in the evaluation of possible consequences by a Tsunami of seismic nature. The Tsunami Assessment Modeling System is currently operational and is calculating in real time all the events occurring in the world, calculating the expected Tsunami wave height and identifying the locations where the wave height should be too high. The first part of the paper describes the structure of the system, the underlying analytical models and the informatics arrangement; the second part shows the activation of the system and the results of the calculated analyses. The final part shows future development of this modeling tool.

Alessandro Annunziato

2007-01-01

313

Adaptive triangular discontinuous Galerkin schemes for tsunami propagation and inundation  

Science.gov (United States)

A tsunami simulation framework is presented, which is based on adaptive triangular meshes and a finite element discontiuous Galerkin discretization. This approach allows for high local resolution and geometric accuracy, while maintaining the opportunity to simulate large spatial domains. The dynamically adaptive mesh is generated by the grid library amatos, which is based on a conforming tree based refinement strategy. While the tsunami propagation in the deep ocean is well represented by the nonlinear shallow water equations, special interest is given to the near-shore characteristics of the flow. For this purpose a new mass-conservative well-balanced inundation scheme is developed. This work is part of the ASCETE (Advanced Simulation of Coupled Earthquake and Tsunami Events) project, which aims to better understand the generation of tsunami events. In this course, a simulation framework is developed which couples physics-based rupture generation with hydrodynamic tsunami propagation and inundation.

Vater, Stefan; Behrens, Jörn

2014-05-01

314

TSUNAMIS OF THE ARABIAN PENINSULA A GUIDE OF HISTORIC EVENTS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The Arabian Peninsula has been affected by tsunamis in the past. The Peninsula is bounded by the Persian Gulf on its northeast side, the Red Sea on its west side, and the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Indian Ocean to its east and south. Each of these areas is very different geographically, tectonically, and bathymetrically.Only two, localized tsunamis have been recorded in the Red Sea and one, doubtful, tsunami in the Persian Gulf. Almost all of the recorded tsunamis along the Arabian Peninsula have occurred on its eastern and southern edge, some, such as the one formed by the 1945 Makran earthquake, were extremely destructive. The Indian Ocean is the most likely source area for future destructive tsunamis that would impact the Arabian Peninsula.

Benjamin R. Jordan

2008-01-01

315

Qualitative research in psychology  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

"The first 'Workshop Qualitative Research in Psychology' took place in Blaubeuren, Germany from October 20-22, 2000. The meeting was organized by the Center for Qualitative Psychology of the University of Tübingen, Germany. The purpose of the meeting was to begin a network of qualitative psychologists. Thirty-two participants got to know each other, presented and discussed their research, discussed potential further developments within the field of qualitative psychology, and inspired each o...

2004-01-01

316

A new multi-sensor approach to simulation assisted tsunami early warning  

Science.gov (United States)

A new tsunami forecasting method for near-field tsunami warning is presented. This method is applied in the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System, as part of the Indonesian Tsunami Warning Center in Jakarta, Indonesia. The method employs a rigorous approach to minimize uncertainty in the assessment of tsunami hazard in the near-field. Multiple independent sensors are evaluated simultaneously in order to achieve an accurate estimation of coastal arrival times and wave heights within very short time after a submarine earthquake event. The method is validated employing a synthetic (simulated) tsunami event, and in hindcasting the minor tsunami following the Padang 30 September 2009 earthquake.

Behrens, J.; Androsov, A.; Babeyko, A. Y.; Harig, S.; Klaschka, F.; Mentrup, L.

2010-06-01

317

Integrated warning system for tsunami and storm surges in China  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsunami and storm surges result in unusual oscillation of seal level, flooding the coastal zones and constitute the major marine disasters in China. Damage by storm surges occurs frequently. According to statistics there are 14 storm surge events exceeding 1 every year on the average. Six of them are typhoon surges and the other eight are extra-tropical surges. In general, in China, there is one severe disaster of storm surge every two years. Monitoring, forecasting and warning for storm surges, including the drop of water level, are the major part of the operational oceanographic services in China. Such a warning system has been set up and is operated by the State Oceanic Administration since 1974. The results of the historical study of tsunami in the last few years pointed out that the anomaly of sea level generated by tele-tsunamis originating in the Pacific Ocean Basin is less than 30 cm on the mainland coast, but local tsunami in the China Seas can be very dangerous. For example, more than 50,000 people were killed by a tsunami in Taiwan and in Taiwan Strait in 1781. It resulted in more deaths than any other tsunami in recorded history. However, the frequency of tsunami disaster is very low for the coast of China, averaging only one every 100 years. It is impossible to set up an independent tsunami warning system in China. It is more practical to set up an integrated warning system on tsunami and on storm surges consisting of: A sea level observing network with rg of: A sea level observing network with real time sea level data acquisition capability; A monitoring system of weather causing the storm surges and of seismic stations monitoring tsunamigenic earthquakes; A tidal prediction scheme for operational use; A forecasting scheme for storm surges and tsunami analysis; The means for warning dissemination. (author). 8 refs, 4 figs, 3 tabs

318

Effectively Communicating Qualitative Research  

Science.gov (United States)

This article is a guide for counseling researchers wishing to communicate the methods and results of their qualitative research to varied audiences. The authors posit that the first step in effectively communicating qualitative research is the development of strong qualitative research skills. To this end, the authors review a process model for…

Ponterotto, Joseph G.; Grieger, Ingrid

2007-01-01

319

Tsunami Hazard Evaluation for the East Coast of Korea by using Empirical Data  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In this study, a tsunami hazard curve was determined for a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) induced tsunami event in Nuclear Power Plant site. A Tsunami catalogue was developed by using historical tsunami record which happen before 1900 and instrumental tsunami record after 1900. For the evaluation of return period of tsunami run-up height, power-law, uppertruncated power law and exponential function were considered for the assessment of regression curves and compared with each result. Although the total tsunami records were only 9 times at the east coast of Korea during tsunami catalogue, there was no such research like this about tsunami hazard curve evaluation and this research lay a cornerstone for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) in Korea

320

Tsunami Hazard Evaluation for the East Coast of Korea by using Empirical Data  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

In this study, a tsunami hazard curve was determined for a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) induced tsunami event in Nuclear Power Plant site. A Tsunami catalogue was developed by using historical tsunami record which happen before 1900 and instrumental tsunami record after 1900. For the evaluation of return period of tsunami run-up height, power-law, uppertruncated power law and exponential function were considered for the assessment of regression curves and compared with each result. Although the total tsunami records were only 9 times at the east coast of Korea during tsunami catalogue, there was no such research like this about tsunami hazard curve evaluation and this research lay a cornerstone for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) in Korea

Kim, Min Kyu; Choi, In Kil [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2010-05-15

 
 
 
 
321

Perceptions and attitudes of clinicians in Spain toward clinical practice guidelines and grading systems: a protocol for a qualitative study and a national survey  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background Clinical practice guidelines (CPGs have become a very popular tool for decision making in healthcare. While there is some evidence that CPGs improve outcomes, there are numerous factors that influence their acceptability and use by healthcare providers. While evidence of clinicians' knowledge, perceptions and attitudes toward CPGs is extensive, results are still disperse and not conclusive. Our study will evaluate these issues in a large and representative sample of clinicians in Spain. Methods/Design A mixed-method design combining qualitative and quantitative research techniques will evaluate general practitioners (GPs and hospital-based specialists in Spain with the objective of exploring attitudes and perceptions about CPGs and evidence grading systems. The project will consist of two phases: during the first phase, group discussions will be carried out to gain insight into perceptions and attitudes of the participants, and during the second phase, this information will be completed by means of a survey, reaching a greater number of clinicians. We will explore these issues in GPs and hospital-based practitioners, with or without previous experience in guideline development. Discussion Our study will identify and gain insight into the perceived problems and barriers of Spanish practitioners in relation to guideline knowledge and use. The study will also explore beliefs and attitudes of clinicians towards CPGs and evidence grading systems used to rate the quality of the evidence and the strength of recommendations. Our results will provide guidance to healthcare researchers and healthcare decision makers to improve the use of guidelines in Spain and elsewhere.

Martínez Flora

2010-12-01

322

Displaced Water Volume, Potential Energy of Initial Elevation, and Tsunami Intensity: Analysis of Recent Tsunami Events  

Science.gov (United States)

We consider recent ocean-bottom earthquakes for which detailed slip distribution data are available. Using these data and the Okada formulae, we calculate the vector fields of co-seismic bottom deformations, which allow us to determine the displaced water volume and the potential energy of initial elevation of the tsunami source. It is shown that, in the majority of cases, the horizontal components of bottom deformation provide an additional contribution to the displaced water volume and virtually never diminish the contribution of the vertical component. The absolute value of the relative contribution of the horizontal components of bottom deformation to the displaced volume varies from 0.07 to 55 %, on average amounting to 14 %. The displaced volume and the energy of initial elevation (tsunami energy) are examined as functions of the moment magnitude, and the relevant regressions (least-squares fits) are derived. The obtained relationships exhibit good correspondence with the theoretical upper limits that had been obtained under the assumption of uniform slip distribution along a rectangular fault. Tsunami energy calculated on the basis of finite fault model data is compared with the earthquake energy determined from the energy-magnitude relationship by Kanamori. It is shown that tsunami takes from 0.001 to 0.34 % of the earthquake energy, and on average 0.04 %. Finally, we analyze the Soloviev-Imamura tsunami intensity as a function of the following three quantities: (1) the moment magnitude, (2) the decimal logarithm of the absolute value of displaced volume, and (3) the decimal logarithm of the potential energy of initial elevation. The first dependence exhibits rather poor correlation, whereas the second and third dependences demonstrate noticeably higher correlation coefficients. This gives us grounds to suggest considering the displaced volume and the energy of initial elevation as measures of the tsunamigenic potential of an earthquake.

Nosov, Mikhail A.; Bolshakova, Anna V.; Kolesov, Sergey V.

2013-11-01

323