British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

Conformationally constrained analogue synthesis was undertaken to aid in pharmacophore mapping and 3D-QSAR analysis of nitrobenzylmercaptopurine riboside (NBMPR) congeners as equilibriative nucleoside transporter 1 (ENT1) inhibitors. In our previous study [J. Med. Chem. 2003, 46, 831-837], novel regioisomeric nitro-1,2,3,4-tetrahydroisoquinoline conformationally constrained analogues of NBMPR were synthesized and evaluated as ENT1 ligands. 7-NO2-1,2,3,4-Tetrahydroisoquino-2-yl purine riboside was identified as the analogue with the nitro group in the best orientation at the NBMPR binding site of ENT1. In the present study, further conformational constraining was introduced by synthesizing 5prime-O,8-cyclo derivatives. The flow cytometrically determined binding affinities indicated that the...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A performance assessment of the operating Solid Waste Storage Area 6 (SWSA 6) facility for the disposal of low-level radioactive waste at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has been prepared to provide the technical basis for demonstrating compliance with the performance objectives of DOE Order 5820.2A, Chapter 111.2 An analysis of the uncertainty incorporated into the assessment was performed which addressed the quantitative uncertainty in the data used by the models, the subjective uncertainty associated with the models used for assessing performance of the disposal facility and site, and the uncertainty in the models used for estimating dose and human exposure. The results of the uncertainty analysis were used to interpret results and to formulate conclusions about the performance assessment. This paper discusses the ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sheltering, evacuation and distribution of stable iodine tablets are considered to be major early emergency actions aiming at diminishing the consequences after a release of radioactive materials from nuclear power plants into the air. Whether in real situations emergency managers will act accordingly is hard to predict. Uncertainties associated with these decisions are termed 'volitional' uncertainties. These uncertainties, however, cannot be assessed by expert judgements as they express the decision at stake in an emergency situation. Uncertainties on the times to implement countermeasures and on the times for the general population to respond to these measures can be assessed by experts, as they represent 'lack-of-knowledge' uncertainties. This paper describes the difference in approach of both types of uncertainties and ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The relative potencies of 20 polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were studied in a chicken embryo hepatocyte system. The 20 congeners were selected according to a full 2{sup 4}-factorial design based on the principal properties of all 154 tetra- through heptachlorinated PCBs. The principal properties were obtained using principal component analysis (PCA) on a multitude of different physico-chemical properties of the PCBs. Toxic equivalency factors (TEFs) were determined for seven out of the twenty PCB congeners, viz. PCB{number_sign}41, PCB{number_sign}60, PCB{number_sign}78, PCB{number_sign}126, PCB{number_sign}169, PCB{number_sign}190, and PCB{number_sign}193, which elicit measurable catalytic ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) activity in the chicken hepatocytes. A multivariate quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) was developed by using partial least-squares to latent variables (PLS) in order to model the relationship between ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This report to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) describes the development and application of a methodology to systematically and quantitatively assess predictive uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport modeling that considers the combined impact of hydrogeologic uncertainties associated with the conceptual-mathematical basis of a model, model parameters, and the scenario to which the model is applied. The methodology is based on a n extension of a Maximum Likelihood implementation of Bayesian Model Averaging. Model uncertainty is represented by postulating a discrete set of alternative conceptual models for a site with associated prior model probabilities that reflect a belief about the relative plausibility of each model ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper presents a new technique--Integrated Bayesian Uncertainty Estimator (IBUNE) to account for the major uncertainties of hydrologic rainfall-runoff predictions explicitly. The uncertainties from the input (forcing) data--mainly the precipitation observations and from the model parameters are reduced through a Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) scheme named Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM) algorithm which has been extended to include a precipitation error model. Afterwards, the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) scheme is employed to further improve the prediction skill and uncertainty estimation using multiple model output. A series of case studies using three rainfall-runoff models to predict the streamflow in the Leaf River basin, Mississippi are used to examine the necessity and ...

Science.gov (United States)

Skin sensitization is the most commonly reported occupational illness, causing much suffering to a wide range of people. Identification and labeling of environmental allergens is urgently required to protect people from skin sensitization. The guinea pig maximization test (GPMT) and murine local lymph node assay (LLNA) are the two most important in vivo models for identification of skin sensitizers. In order to reduce the number of animal tests, quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) are strongly encouraged in the assessment of skin sensitization of chemicals. This paper has investigated the skin sensitization potential of 162 compounds with LLNA results and 92 compounds with GPMT results using a support vector machine. A particle swarm optimization algorithm was implemented for feature selection from a large number of molecular descriptors calculated by Dragon. For the LLNA data set, the classification accuracies are 95.37% and ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Power system operating conditions vary with system configurations and loading conditions. Coefficients in nominal system model change in a complex manner with different operating point and so does system dynamic behavior. With the aid of unstructured and structured uncertainty descriptions, the worst system variations can be estimated and formulated into two different uncertainty models in frequency domain; multiplicative unstructured uncertainty in the form of transfer function and structured uncertainty with the parametric uncertainty description. The uncertainty descriptions are then incorporated into system nominal model to perform H{sub {infinity}} and {mu} based robust power system stabilizer (PSS) design. Both approaches to the PSS design enable the power system to remain stable over a wide ...

Science.gov (United States)

... The third series used a correlated parameter covariance matrix derived from a generic database of modeling uncertainty for space structures [5-1 ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The aim of this work is the evaluation of the quality of a chemistry-transport model, not by a classical comparison with observations, but by the estimation of its uncertainties due to the input data, to the model formulation and to the numerical approximations. The study of these 3 sources of uncertainty is carried out with Monte Carlo simulations, with multi-model simulations and with comparisons between numerical schemes, respectively. A high uncertainty is shown for ozone concentrations. To overcome the uncertainty-related limitations, a strategy consists in using the overall forecasting. By combining several models (up to 48) on the basis of past observations, forecasts can be significantly improved. This work has been also the occasion of developing an innovative modeling system, named ...

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

The impacts of climate change on crop productivity are often assessed using simulations from a numerical climate model as an input to a crop simulation model. The precision of these predictions reflects...Full Text Available

British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

Estimates of climate change impacts are plague with uncertainties from many physical, biological, and social-economic processes. Among the urgent research priorities, more comprehensive assessments of impacts that better represent the uncertainties are needed. Here, we develop a new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection approach to account for the uncertainties from CO2 emission scenarios, climate change scenarios, and biophysical processes in impact assessment model. We demonstrate the approach in addressing the probabilistic changes of maize production in the North China Plain in future. The new process-based general crop model, MCWLA [Tao, F., Yokozawa, M. Zhang, Z., 2009. Modelling the impacts of weather and climate variability on crop productivity over a large area: a new proc...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A model-based technique incorporating neural networks has been developed for process monitoring. The technique is intended for processes where the uncertainty in the reference model is larger than desired but where process measurements providing additional information about the behavior of the system are available. This data is used to reduce the uncertainty of the model. The technique has been implemented in a real-time system for monitoring operational changes of mechanical equipment for use in predictive maintenance applications. Tests on a peristaltic pump were conducted and demonstrate the advantages of the proposed technique.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

An uncertainty decrease is an very important issue for enhancing risk-informed (RI) activities worldwide. Especially, a relatively large uncertainty in a level-2 (L2) PSA risk compared with level-1 internal PSA risk has been a bottleneck problem in the RI application to the extent of a severe accident management. According to the ASME PRA standard in which sources of an uncertainty to capture a category-II RI (= Option 2) capability are listed, an uncertainty analysis which identifies the key sources of an uncertainty and includes sensitivity studies for dominant contributors to LERF (Large Early Release Frequency) needs to be provided. To solve these problems, USNRC have developed the 'SPAR-LERF' model related to the L2 RI application and 'L2 uncertainty assessment and improvement' work is being taken as ...

CERN Document Server

The status of the electroweak Standard Model is reviewed in the light of recent precision data and new theoretical results which have contributed to improve the predictions for precision observables, together with the remaining inherent theoretical uncertainties. Consequences for possible new physics are also discussed.

Wastenet

... (restricted)] 256-264 Influence of likelihood function choice for estimating crop model parameters using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation method by He, Jianqiang & Jones, James W. & Graham, Wendy D. & Dukes, Michael D. [Downloadable! (restricted)]...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Incomplete convergence in numerical simulation such as computational physics simulations and/or Monte Carlo simulations can enter into the calculation of the objective function in an optimization problem, producing noise, bias, and topo- graphical inaccuracy in the objective function. These affect accuracy and convergence rate in the optimization problem. This paper is concerned with global searching of a diverse parameter space, graduating to accelerated local convergence to a (hopefully) global optimum, in a framework that acknowledges convergence uncertainty and manages model resolu- tion to efficiently reduce uncertainty in the final optimum. In its own right, the global-to-local optimization engine employed here (devised for noise tolerance) performs better than other classical and contemporary optimization approaches tried individually and in combination on the "industrial" test problem to be presented.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper presents the results of a model for the impact of potential contamination produced by radionuclide leaking due to long-term physical, chemical and hydrogeological processes occurring in a LILW repository and in the natural environment. The analysis contains a deterministic and also a probabilistic approach for uncertainty assessment. The input function, i.e., the source term was evaluated by using AMBER code and the entire analysis was accomplished by using GOLDSIM, a powerful tool to support probabilistic simulation in management and decision-making in engineering and science. The results obtained were compared to previous simulations and uncertainty analyses (FEHM). (authors)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

There are two kinds of uncertainties in safety assessment of engineering structures. One is of the nature of randomness, and the other fuzziness. Fuzzy uncertainties exist in defining certain structural performances, conditions, parameters, and their interrelationships. The theory of fuzzy sets should be employed to cope with the fuzzy uncertainties. In this paper, a general definition for structural failure considering the fuzzy uncertainties is introduced firstly. Failure of the structure is modelled by a fuzzy event, and described by the membership function. The limit state surface is then replaced by a fuzzy limit state zone, in which every point represents a state belonging to the failure with a certain degree of membership. Then a fuzzy optimization problem for solving the reliability index is formulated. In classical structural reliability theory, the reliability index is ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Performance assessments for the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site on the Nevada Test Site have used three different mathematical models to estimate Rn-222 flux density. This study describes the performance, uncertainty, and sensitivity of the three models which include the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Regulatory Guide 3.64 analytical method and two numerical methods. The uncertainty of each model was determined by Monte Carlo simulation using Latin hypercube sampling. The global sensitivity was investigated using Morris one-at-time screening method, sample-based correlation and regression methods, the variance-based extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test, and Sobol's sensitivity indices. The models were found to produce similar estimates of the mean and median flux density, but to have different uncertainties and ...

British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

Abstract Copper(II) bis(thiosemicarbazone) are very useful for blood flow and hypoxic imaging. The aim of this study was to identify structure-activity relationships (SARs) within a series of analogues with different substitution patterns in the ligands, in order to design improved hypoxia imaging agents and elucidate hypoxia selectivity mechanisms. Genetic algorithms (GAs) were used to develop specific copper metal-ligand force field parameters for the MM3 force-field calculations. These new parameters produced results in good agreement with experiment and previously reported copper metal-ligand parameters. A successful quantitative SAR (QSAR) for predicting the several classes of Cu(II)-chelating ligands was built using a training set of 21 Cu(II) complexes. The QSAR exhibited a correlat...

British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

SummaryThis paper examines the sensitivity and uncertainty of evaporation estimates from Nasser Lake, south of Egypt using data collected at the floating station Raft, 2km upstream of the Aswan High Dam, and 12 evaporation models. Based on their approach the evaporation models were ranked in five classes, respectively the Bowen ratio energy budget (BREB) approach, three energy-aerodynamic based methods, a mass transfer method, two temperature and five solar radiation-temperature approaches. State dependent parameter models were used to estimate the sensitivity indices of the different evaporation estimation methods at daily and monthly frequencies. A drastic reduction in the cost of the sensitivity analysis was obtained when coupled with efficient sampling methods, producing quasi-Monte Ca...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yucca Mountain, Nevada is a potential site for a high-level radioactive-waste repository. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were performed to estimate critical factors in the performance of the site with respect to a criterion in terms of pre-waste-emplacement ground-water travel time. The degree of failure in the analytical model to meet the criterion is sensitive to the estimate of fracture porosity in the upper welded unit of the problem domain. Fracture porosity is derived from a number of more fundamental measurements including fracture frequency, fracture orientation, and the moisture-retention characteristic inferred for the fracture domain.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

To address the need for integrated models of advanced power generation systems and for improved analysis techniques, the US Department of Energy (DOE), through the Morgantown Energy Technology Center (METC), has supported the development of performance, emissions, and cost models of several advanced power generation systems, including integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), externally-fired combined cycle (EFCC) and pressurized fluidized bed combustion (PFBC) concepts. Simultaneously, numerical methods for simulation of uncertainties and optimization of process flowsheets have been implemented in the DOE`s public version of ASPEN. The new process models and computational capabilities have been applied to demonstrate the benefits of quantitative approaches to dealing with uncertainty and for optimizing technologies in the face of uncertainty. This paper ...

British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

A constitutive model for an explosive consists of three parts: equation of state of reactants, equation of state of products, and reaction rate. In the absence of a good physical theory, models are empirical and based on heuristics. For the HMX based plastic-bonded explosive PBX 9501, three models have previously been calibrated and used in numerical simulations. Here, these three models are compared. They illustrate several generic difficulties with developing and validating models. The available data is insufficient to determine a constitutive model uniquely. Different models can be calibrated to fit the available data yet differ significantly in regions of phase space of importance to applications. Comparing models gives an indication of the uncertainty in model predictions ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The UK government's economy-wide 60% carbon dioxide reduction target by 2050 requires a paradigm shift in the whole energy system. Numerous analytical studies have concluded that the power sector is a critical contributor to a low carbon energy system, and electricity generation has dominated the policy discussion on UK decarbonisation scenarios. However, range of technical, social and market challenges, combined with alternate market investment strategies mean that large scale deployment of key classes of low carbon electricity technologies is fraught with uncertainty. The UK MARKAL energy systems model has been used to investigate these long-term uncertainties in key electricity generation options. A range of power sector specific parametric sensitivities have been performed under a 'what-if' framework to provide a systematic exploration of least-cost energy system configurations under a broad, integrated set of input ...

British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

Today?s demand on high supply chain performance requires higher awareness about supply chain risks and uncertainty. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the role of temporary storage in the transport network in a supply chain perspective. The primary research question concerns the purpose or role of temporary storage and whether management of temporary storage can contribute to reducing risks and uncertainty in the supply chain. The research is based on a system-theoretical approach, which emphasizes a holistic view instead of the characteristics of the different parts. The research method used in this paper is abductive. Existing theories are used to formulate a framework which leads to a conceptual model description of the temporary storage function. This model is then supported and v...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A new performance model of the externally fired combined cycle (EFCC) is implemented in ASPEN (Advanced System for Process ENgineering), a chemical process simulator. The model accounts for interactions within and between approximately a dozen major process areas. The new model is applied to case studies to evaluate the sensitivity of process performance to the ranges of uncertainty in key model inputs such as heat losses, carbon conversion, and air leakage rates, and to illustrate how alternative designs, including steam injection and flue gas desulfurization (FGD), can affect plant thermal efficiency and net power output. The model results suggest that careful attention to the design of the FGD system is needed, especially with respect to reheat, and that steam injection may offer cost savings associated with reducing the size of the steam turbine with little ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

To assist in attaining the HSE's objective of providing perspective and focus for Safety Case Assessment, a generic model of the structural design process for the foundations of pile supported fixed steel structures has been developed. Interfaces between the foundation design team and other stakeholders have been identified and assessments made of both the magnitude and the potential significance of the uncertainties associated with key elements of the design process. (author)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A new evaluation (UKFY2) has been prepared of the independent and cumulative yields of the products of fission induced by thermal, fast, and 14 MeV neutrons in nuclides important for reactor design and operation and for fuel and waste management. Three spontaneously fissioning nuclides were also considered. The evaluation used a database that is considered to be complete up to early 1989. Careful study was made of experimental uncertainties and discrepancies, emphasizing the need for further measurements. Gaps in the data were filled by interpolation and extrapolation, using fits to empirical models. The yields were subsequently adjusted to fit physical constraints of the fissioning process. This paper describes the evaluation, which was submitted and accepted for inclusion in the JEF2 file. The file was produced in January 1990 and a revision of cumulative yield uncertainties distributed in January 1991.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This issue has the following articles: (1) Deterrence with a Minimum Nuclear Stockpile - Commentary by Bruce T. Goodwin; (2) Enhancing Confidence in the Nation's Nuclear Stockpile - Livermore experts are participating in a national effort aimed at predicting how nuclear weapon materials and systems will likely change over time; (3) Narrowing Uncertainties - For climate modeling and many other fields, understanding uncertainty, or margin of error, is critical; (4) Insight into a Deadly Disease - Laboratory experiments reveal the pathogenesis of tularemia in host cells, bringing scientists closer to developing a vaccine for this debilitating disease. (5) Return to Rongelap - On the Rongelap Atoll, Livermore scientists are working to minimize radiological exposure for natives now living on or wishing to return to the islands.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper presents a trial of probabilistic simulation for performance assessment of high-level waste (HLW) disposal using the Monte Carlo method. Based on the Reference Case conceptual model in H12, a new integrated simulation system which allowed us to rapidly evaluate the effect of data uncertainty was developed. The doses to hypothetical exposure group were compared with the results of H12 that were performed by using a point-wise approach, in terms of maximum total dose. This study showed that H12 results were consistent with results of probabilistic simulation and also showed that transmissivity had a strong influence for the uncertainty of the system performance in all simulation time. (author)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper presents a nonlinear Bayesian regression algorithm for the purpose of detecting and estimating gas plume content from hyper-spectral data. Remote sensing data, by its very nature, is collected under less controlled conditions than laboratory data. As a result, the physics-based model that is used to describe the relationship between the observed remotesensing spectra, and the terrestrial (or atmospheric) parameters that we desire to estimate, is typically littered with many unknown "nuisance" parameters (parameters that we are not interested in estimating, but also appear in the model). Bayesian methods are well-suited for this context as they automatically incorporate the uncertainties associated with all nuisance parameters into the error estimates of the parameters of interest. The nonlinear Bayesian regression methodology is illustrated on realistic simulated data from a three-layer model ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This report is a scoping study to examine research opportunities to improve the accuracy of the system dynamic load and generator models, data and performance assessment tools used by CAISO operations engineers and planning engineers, as well as those used by their counterparts at the California utilities, to establish safe operating margins. Model-based simulations are commonly used to assess the impact of credible contingencies in order to determine system operating limits (path ratings, etc.) to ensure compliance with NERC and WECC reliability requirements. Improved models and a better understanding of the impact of uncertainties in these models will increase the reliability of grid operations by allowing operators to more accurately study system voltage problems and the dynamic stability response of the system to disturbances.

Science.gov (United States)

The Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) is a new model that can be used to assess the level of maturity of computational modeling and simulation (M&S) efforts. The development of the model is based on both the authors experience and their analysis of similar investigations in the past. The perspective taken in this report is one of judging the usefulness of a predictive capability that relies on the numerical solution to partial differential equations to better inform and improve decision making. The review of past investigations, such as the Software Engineering Institute's Capability Maturity Model Integration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Department of Defense Technology Readiness Levels, indicates that a more restricted, more interpretable method is needed to assess the maturity of an M&S effort. The PCMM addresses six ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The uncertainty associated with the sorption coefficient, or K{sub d} value, is one of the key uncertainties in estimating risk associated with burying low-level nuclear waste in the subsurface. The objective of this study was to measure >648 K{sub d} values and provide a measure of the range and distribution (normal or log-normal) of radionuclide K{sub d} values appropriate for the E-Area disposal site, within the Savannah River Site, near Aiken South Carolina. The 95% confidence level for the mean K{sub d} was twice the mean in the Aquifer Zone (18-30.5 m depth), equal to the mean for the Upper Vadose Zone (3.3-10 m depth), and half the mean for the Lower Vadose Zone (3.10-18 m depth). The distribution of K{sub d} values was log normal in the Upper Vadose Zone and Aquifer Zone, and normal in the Lower Vadose Zone. To our knowledge, this is the first report of natural radionuclide Kd variability in the literature. Using ranges and ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Employing a recently developed Monte-Carlo model, we study the fission of 240Pu induced by neutrons with energies from thermal to just below the threshold for second chance fission. Current measurements of the mean number of prompt neutrons emitted in fission, together with less accurate measurements of the neutron energy spectra, place remarkably fine constraints on predictions of microscopic calculations. In particular, the total excitation energy of the nascent fragments must be specified to within 1MeV to avoid disagreement with measurements of the mean neutron multiplicity. The combination of the Monte-Carlo fission model with a statistical likelihood analysis also presents a powerful tool for the evaluation of fission neutron data. Of particular importance is the fission spectrum, which plays a key role in determining reactor criticality. We show that our approach can be used to develop an estimate of the fission spectrum with ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

We consider energy investment, when a choice has to be made between fossil fuel and biomass fired production technologies. A dynamic model is presented to illustrate the effect of the different degrees of input price uncertainty on the choice of technology and the timing of the investment. It is shown that when the choice of technology is irreversible, it may be optimal to postpone the investment even if it would otherwise be optimal to invest in one or both of the plant types. We provide a numerical example based on cost, estimates of two different power plant types. (author)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The aim of the safety calculation is to quantify through numerical modelling the radiological impact (molar flow, human dose) of a potential repository for radioactive waste on the Meuse/Haute Marne site at Bure. A selection process is underway for safety scenarios and their phenomenological and numerical conceptual models upstream from the safety calculation. This involves defining and quantifying the geometric and dimensional representations of the repository for each scenario plus the physical, mathematical and numerical models that reflect its behaviour and the uncertainties associated with all the parameters required to quantify the impact. A summary will be given of these various aspects. The numerical simulations are then performed on the Alliances platform which integrates the various computer codes required for the physical representation of the system. (authors)

British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

Abstract The potential impact of climate change on areas of strategic importance for water resources remains a concern. Here, river flow projections for the River Medway, above Teston in southeast England are presented, which is just such an area of strategic importance. The river flow projections use climate inputs from the Hadley Centre Regional Climate Model (HadRM3) for the time period 1960 2080 (a subset of the early release UKCP09 projections). River flow predictions are calculated using CATCHMOD, the main river flow prediction tool of the Environment Agency (EA) of England and Wales. In order to use this tool in the best way for climate change predictions, model setup and performance are analysed using sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The model's representation of hydrological ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The integrity of the cables located in the target room is very important in the Fire PSA, because the CDF and CCDP are changed according to the results of a cable integrity that depends on the surrounding gas temperature. The conservative assumptions used in the Fire PSA typically specify that all of the equipment and cables of a room would fail when a fire happens in the room. But the realistic assessment of a fire risk by using a fire simulation tool has become necessary in the Fire PSA as described in the ANS Fire PRA Standard. This paper evaluates the cable integrity of eight pump rooms in the nuclear power plant by using the CFAST zone fire model. The upper layer gas temperature of each room is estimated, and an analysis based on the results of model simulations is used to judge the cable integrity. According to the analysis results, the integrity of the cable located in the upper layer in the pump rooms is maintained without any thermal ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Full text.Increased environmental concerns and the emphasis on material and energy recovery are gradually changing the orientation of municipal solid waste (MSW) management and planning. In this context, the application of optimization techniques have been introduced to design the least cost solid waste management systems, considering the variety of management processes (recycling, composting, anaerobic digestion, incineration and land filling) and the existence of uncertainties associated with the number of system components and their interrelations. This study presents a model that was developed and applied to serve as a solid socio-economic and environmental considerations. The model accounts for solid waste generation rates, composition, collection, treatment, disposal as well as potential environmental impacts of various MSW management techniques. The model follows a linear programming formulation ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Expressions for the spatial moments and macrodispersion tensor for sorbing solutes in heterogeneous formations were presented using a probabilistic model of a fluid residence time coupled with the particle position analysis. The fluid residence time was defined as a fraction of the actual time during which the particle stayed in the mobile fluid phase of the aquifer. The fluid residence time is a random variable whose variability comes as a result of the non-equilibrium sorption properties. The sorbing solute was assumed to be governed with first-order linear kinetics. The closed-form expressions were based on the stationarity in the kinetic process and on the first-order approximation in the hydraulic conductivity field and in the fluid residence time. The non-equilibrium effects were presented as a function of the spatial variability in hydraulic conductivity and temporal variability in the fluid residence time. The importance of the non-equilibrium processes in ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Waste form dissolution studies and preliminary performance analyses were carried out to contribute a part of the data needed for the selection of a waste form for the disposal of Savannah River Plant defense waste in a deep geologic repository. The first portion of this work provides descriptions of the chemical interactions between the waste form and the geologic environment. We reviewed critically the dissolution/leaching data for borosilicate glass and SYNROC. Both chemical kinetic and thermodynamic models were developed to describe the dissolution process of these candidate waste forms so as to establish a fundamental basis for interpretation of experimental data and to provide directions for future experiments. The complementary second portion of this work is an assessment of the impacts of alternate waste forms upon the consequences of disposal in various proposed geological media. Employing systems analysis methodology, we began to evaluate the performance ...

CERN Document Server

We provide a quantitative assessment of the probability distribution function of the concentration parameter of galaxy clusters. We do so by using the probability distribution function of halo formation times, calculated by means of the excursion set formalism, and a formation redshift-concentration scaling derived from results of N-body simulations. Our results suggest that the observed high concentrations of several clusters are quite unlikely in the standard Lambda CDM cosmological model, but that due to various inherent uncertainties, the statistical range of the predicted distribution may be significantly wider than commonly acknowledged. In addition, the probability distribution function of the Einstein radius of A1689 is evaluated, confirming that the observed value of ~45" +/- 5" is very improbable in the currently favoured cosmological model. If, however, a variance of ~20% in the theoretically predicted value of ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pre-waste-emplacement groundwater travel time is one indicator of the isolation capability of the geologic system surrounding a repository. Two distinct modeling approaches exist for prediction of groundwater flow paths and travel times from the repository location to the designated accessible environment boundary. These two approaches are: (1) the deterministic approach which calculates a single value prediction of groundwater travel time based on average values for input parameters and (2) the stochastic approach which yields a distribution of possible groundwater travel times as a function of the nature and magnitude of uncertainties in the model inputs. The purposes of this report are to (1) document the theoretical (i.e., mathematical) basis used to calculate groundwater pathlines and travel times in a basalt system, (2) outline limitations and ranges of applicability of the deterministic modeling ...

KoreaScience (Korea)

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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

SYVAC3 (Systems Variability Analysis Code, generation 3) is a computer program that implements a method called systems variability analysis to analyze the behaviour of a system in the presence of uncertainty. This method is based on simulating the system many times to determine the variation in behaviour it can exhibit. SYVAC3 specializes in systems representing the transport of contaminants, and has several features to simplify the modelling of such systems. It provides a general tool for estimating environmental impacts from the dispersal of contaminants. This report describes the use and structure of SYVAC3. It is intended for modellers, programmers, operators and reviewers who deal with simulation codes based on SYVAC3. From this manual they can learn how to link a model with SYVAC3, how to set up an input file, and how to extract results from output files. The manual lists the subroutines of SYVAC3 ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The main purpose of the study on the title subject is to gain insight into the strategic options to optimize energy production from waste processing in the Netherlands in the long term. The developed optimization model will be used by the Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Spatial Planning en Environment (VROM) for scenarios to calculate and determine expectations and uncertainties in the development of waste processing in the Netherlands. Attention is paid to (1) the impact of present and future technology on the costs and energetic efficiency of waste processing, (2) several techniques for the generation of electricity and heat, the production of fuels, and recycling, (3) the impact of scale (capacity) on costs and energetic efficiency of waste processing installations, and (4) the impact of transport and heat distribution. The time frame is the year 2020. 66 refs.

British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

Abstract A large remaining source of uncertainty in global model predictions of future climate is how ecosystem carbon (C) cycle feedbacks to climate change. We conducted a field manipulative experiment of warming and nitrogen (N) addition in a temperate steppe in northern China during two contrasting hydrological growing seasons in 2006 [wet with total precipitation 11.2% above the long-term mean (348 mm)] and 2007 (dry with total precipitation 46.7% below the long-term mean). Irrespective of strong intra- and interannual variations in ecosystem C fluxes, responses of ecosystem C fluxes to warming and N addition did not change between the two growing seasons, suggesting independence of warming and N responses of net ecosystem C exchange (NEE) upon hydrological variations in the temperate ...

CERN Document Server

Positronium is an ideal system for the research of the bound state QED. New precise measurement of orthopositronium decay rate has been performed with an accuracy of 150 ppm, and the result combined with the last three is 7.0401 +- 0.0007 mu s^-1. It is the first result to validate the 2nd order correction. The Hyper Fine Splitting of positronium is sensitive to the higher order corrections of the QED prediction and also to the new physics beyond Standard Model via the quantum oscillation into virtual photon. The discrepancy of 3.5 sigma is found recently between the measured values and the QED prediction (O(alpha^3)). It might be due to the contribution of the new physics or the systematic problems in the previous measurements: (non-thermalized Ps and non-uniformity of the magnetic field). We propose new methods to measure HFS precisely without the these uncertainties.

British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

In order to reduce the number of surface mining accidents related to low visibility conditions and blind spots of trucks and to provide 3D information for truck drivers and real time monitored truck information for the remote dispatcher, a 3D assisted driving system (3D-ADS) based on the GPS, mesh-wireless networks and the Google-Earth engine as the graphic interface and mine-mapping server, was developed at Virginia Tech. The research results indicate that this 3D-ADS system has the potential to increase reliability and reduce uncertainty in open pit mining operations by customizing the local 3D digital mining map, constructing 3D truck models, tracking vehicles in real time using a 3D interface and indicating available escape routes for driver safety.

British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

Biotin is an essential water-soluble vitamin crucial for maintaining normal body functions. The importance of biotin for human health has been under-appreciated but there is plenty of opportunity for future research with great importance for human health. Currently, carrying out predictions of biotin metabolism involves tedious manual manipulations. In this paper, we report the development of BiotinNet, an internet based program that uses Bayesian networks to integrate published data on various aspects of biotin metabolism. Users can provide a combination of values on the levels of biotin related metabolites to obtain the predictions on other metabolites that are not specified. As an inherent feature of Bayesian networks, the uncertainty of the prediction is also quantified and reported to...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The SCDAP computer code, which is being developed under the sponsorship of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, models the progression of light water reactor core damage including core heatup, core disruption and debris formation, debris heatup, and debris melting. SCDAP is being used to help identify and understand the phenomena that control core behavior during a severe accident, to help quantify uncertainties in risk assessment analysis, and to support planning and interpretation of severe fuel damage experiments and data. Comparisons between SCDAP calculations and the experimental data showed good agreement. Calculated and measured bundle temperatures for SFD-ST were within 200 K for the entire bundle and within 20 K for maximum cladding temperatures. For ESSI-2, calculated and measured maximum cladding temperatures were within 50 K, and the extensive liquefaction and relocation that was calculated was in agreement with ...

British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

We provide an efficient computational approach to solve the mixed integer programming (MIP) model developed by Tarim and Kingsman [8] for solving a stochastic lot-sizing problem with service level constraints under the static-dynamic uncertainty strategy. The effectiveness of the proposed method hinges on three novelties: (i) the proposed relaxation is computationally efficient and provides an optimal solution most of the time, (ii) if the relaxation produces an infeasible solution, then this solution yields a tight lower bound for the optimal cost, and (iii) it can be modified easily to obtain a feasible solution, which yields an upper bound. In case of infeasibility, the relaxation approach is implemented at each node of the search tree in a branch-and-bound procedure to efficiently sear...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This document deals with the couplings between the W boson and Z and gamma particles. WWZ and WW{gamma} vertex are predicted by the electroweak theory based on the symmetry group SU(2){sub L}*U(1){sub Y}, their existence is confirmed by the measurement of the production cross-section of W pairs at LEP. The effective values of the couplings are modified by the introduction of standard model particle loops at the vertex level, the impact on the coupling value is assessed to reach 10{sup -3}. These loops can also include beyond-the-standard-model particles, their impact is in the magnitude order of 10{sup -3} for most models. The fully description of these loops requires the values of 14 complex parameters whose measurement will give information about the existence of new particles. Nevertheless the number of events at LEP is not sufficient to measure all the parameters simultaneously. As a consequence the analysis is limited ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This project aims at developing risk-informed application technologies to enhance the safety and economy of nuclear power plant altogether. For this, the Integrated Level 1 and 2 PSA model is developed. In addition, the fire and internal flooding PSA models are improved according to the PSA standard of U.S.A. To solve the issues of domestic PSA model, the best-estimate thermal hydraulic analyses are preformed for the ATWS and LSSB. In order to reduce the uncertainty of PSA, several new PSA technologies are developed: (1) more exact quantification of large fault tree, (2) importance measure including the effects of external PSA. As feasibility studies of Option 2 and 3, the class of 6 systems' SSC are re-classified based on the risk information and the sensitivity analyses is performed for the EDG starting time, respectively. It is also improved that the methodology to identify the vital area of ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Under Section 5 of the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), manufacturers must notify the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 90 days before manufacturing, processing, or importing a new chemical substance. This is referred to as a premanufacture notice (PMN). The PMN must contain certain information including chemical identity, production volume, proposed uses, estimates of exposure and release, and any health or environmental test data that are available to the submitter. Because there is no explicit statutory authority that requires testing of new chemicals prior to their entry into the market, most PMNs are submitted with little or no data. As a result, EPA has developed special techniques for hazard assessment of PMN chemicals. These include (1) evaluation of available data on the chemical itself, (2) evaluation of data on analogues of the PMN, or evaluation of data on metabolites or analogues of metabolites of the PMN, (3) use of quantitative structure activity relationships ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A series of meteorological and tracer experiments, was conducted during May and June 1984 over the 20-km wide /O/resund strait between Denmark and Sweden for the purpose of studying atmospheric dispersion processes over cold water and warm land surfaces and providing the data needed to evaluate meso-scale models in a coastal environment. In concert with these objectives the data from these experiments have been used as part of a continuing effort to evaluate the capability of the three-dimensional MATHEW/ADPIC (M/A) atmospheric dispersion models to simulate pollutant transport and diffusion characteristics of the atmospheric during a wide variety of meteorological conditions. Since previous studies have focused primarily on M/A model evaluations over rolling and complex terrain at inland sites, the /O/resund experiments provide a unique opportunity to evaluate the models in a coastal environment. The ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Consideration of the technical feasibility of Yucca Mountain in Nevada as the site for a high-level nuclear waste repository has led to an intense debate regarding the economic, social, and political impacts of the repository. Impediments to the siting process mean that the nuclear waste problem is being resolved by adhering to the status quo, in which nuclear waste is stored at scattered sites near major population centers. To assess the merits of alternative siting strategies--including both the permanent repository and the status quo- we consider the variables that would be included in a model designed to select (1) the optimal number of disposal facilities, (2) the types of facilities (e.g., permanent repository or monitored retrievable facility), and (3) the geographic location of storage sites. The objective function in the model is an all-inclusive measure of social cost. The intent of the exercise is not to demonstrate the superiority ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The US Department of Energy (DOE) has millions of gallons of high level nuclear waste stored in underground tanks at Hanford, Washington and Savannah River, South Carolina. These tanks will eventually be emptied and decommissioned. This will leave a residue of sludge adhering to the interior tank surfaces that may contaminate nearby groundwaters with radionuclides and RCRA metals. Performance assessment (PA) calculations must be carried out prior to closing the tanks. This requires developing radionuclide release models from the sludges so that the PA calculations can be based on credible source terms. These efforts continued to be hindered by uncertainties regarding the actual nature of the tank contents and the distribution of radionuclides among the various phases. In particular, it is of vital importance to know what radionuclides are associated with solid sludge components. Experimentation on actual tank sludges can be difficult, dangerous ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

High and volatile natural gas prices have increasingly led to calls for investments in renewable energy. One line of argument is that deployment of these resources may lead to reductions in the demand for and price of natural gas. Many recent US-based modeling studies have demonstrated that this effect could provide significant consumer savings. In this article we evaluate these studies, and benchmark their findings against economic theory, other modeling results, and a limited empirical literature. We find that many uncertainties remain regarding the absolute magnitude of this effect, and that the reduction in natural gas prices may not represent an increase in aggregate economic wealth. Nonetheless, we conclude that many of the studies of the impact of renewable energy on natural gas prices appear to have represented this effect within reason, given current knowledge. These studies specifically suggest that a 1% reduction ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A computational procedure is proposed to perform uncertainty analysis for the calculation of the isotopic inventory and radiological quantities obtained as a linear function of it, due to uncertainties in the activation cross sections. The method is applied to determine the uncertainty of the calculated shallow burial index (SBI) from activated type 304 stainless steel (SS) in the most neutron-exposed zone of the HYLIFE-II vessel structure. Results are obtained by means of an element-by-element study. Some other types of steel are also investigated for comparison purposes. The SS304 is confirmed to be the most promising steel option. 16 refs., 2 tabs.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thermal expansions of a simulated fuel (SS-1) were measured by using a Dilatometer (DIL402C) from room temperature to 1900 K. The main procedure of an uncertainty evaluation followed the strategy of the UO{sub 2} fuel. Referring to the ISO (International Organization for Standardization) guide, the uncertainties of the thermal expansion were quantified in three parts - the initial length, the length variation, and the system calibration factor. The uncertainty of the thermal expansion for a simulated fuel was also compared with those of UO{sub 2} fuel.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

It is planned to use the tritium dose model, DCART (Doses from Chronic Atmospheric Releases of Tritium), to reconstruct dose to the hypothetical maximally exposed individual from annual routine releases of tritiated water (HTO) and tritiated hydrogen gas (HT) from all Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) facilities and from the Sandia National (SNL) Laboratory's Tritium Research Laboratory over the last fifty years. DCART has been described in Part 1 of ''Historical Doses From Tritiated Water And Tritiated Hydrogen Gas Released To The Atmosphere from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL)'' (UCRL-TR-205083). This report (Part 2) summarizes information about annual routine releases of tritium from LLNL (and SNL) since 1953. Historical records were used to derive facility-specific annual data (e.g., source terms, dilution factors, ambient air concentrations, meteorological data, including absolute humidity ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Until now policy makers and researchers considered the problem of uncertainty and verification to be of minor importance for the Kyoto process. However, the first studies that recently appeared on uncertainty estimation of carbon accounting reveal that uncertainties of the reported emissions on the country level are large. In an environment of such large uncertainties, verification of emission reductions must be viewed as a crucial mechanism to secure the very functioning of the Protocol. The paper provides a set of tools to strategically deal with the problem of uncertainty and verification under the Kyoto Protocol. This is done by: providing an overview of the instruments to deal with verification (no-, trend-, level- and top-down/bottom-up verification under PCA and FCA); compute costs scenarios for those instruments under various flexibility scenarios; and providing a short ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Kyoto Protocol is often described as a good first step towards reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into the atmosphere. The Protocol endorses emissions trading, joint implementation including 'bubbling' between Annex 1 Parties, and a clean development mechanism that allows Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 Parties to act together to reduce emissions. However, the anticipated permit market will not function if uncertainties are not rigorously assessed and considered in any compliance process. With no reliable verification tool, it is impossible to effectively assess the different mechanisms and activities mentioned under the Protocol. Thus, it is very important to study the uncertainties underlying the Kyoto relevant GHGs, here with reference to Poland, because without the consideration of uncertainty robust verification can not occur. This paper presents information about the data used in the calculations as ...

Science.gov (United States)

Research into methods for reasoning under uncertainty is currently one of the most exciting areas of artificial intelligence, largely because it has recently become possible to record, store, and process large amounts of data. While impressive achievements have been made in pattern classification problems such as handwritten character recognition, face detection, speaker identification, and prediction of gene function, it is even more exciting that researchers are on the verge of introducing systems that can perform large-scale combinatorial analyses of data, decomposing the data into interacting components. For example, computational methods for automatic scene analysis are now emerging in the computer vision community. These methods decompose an input image into its constituent objects, lighting conditions, motion patterns, etc. Two of the main challenges are finding effective representations and models in specific applications and finding ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Subsurface and surface coalfires are a serious problem in many coal-producing countries. Combustion can occur within the coal seams (underground or surface), in piles of stored coal, or in spoil dumps at the surface. While consuming a non renewable energy source, coalfires promote several environmental problems. Among all GHGs that are emitted from coalfires, CO2 is the most significant because of its high quantity. In connection to this environmental problem, the core aim of the present research is to develop a hyperspectral remote sensing and radiative transfer based model that is able to estimate CO2 concentration (ppmv) from coalfires. Since 1960s remote sensing is being used as a tool to detect and monitoring coalfires. With time, remote sensing has proven a reliable tool to identify and monitor coalfires. In the present study multi-temporal, multi-sensor and multi-spectral thermal remote sensing data are being used to detect and monitor coalfires. Unlike the ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This report is the user's manual of seismic system reliability analysis code SECOM2 (Seismic Core Melt Frequency Evaluation Code Ver.2) developed at the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute for systems reliability analysis, which is one of the tasks of seismic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The SECOM2 code has many functions such as: Calculation of component failure probabilities based on the response factor method, Extraction of minimal cut sets (MCSs), Calculation of conditional system failure probabilities for given seismic motion levels at the site of an NPP, Calculation of accident sequence frequencies and the core damage frequency (CDF) with use of the seismic hazard curve, Importance analysis using various indicators, Uncertainty analysis, Calculation of the CDF taking into account the effect of the correlations of responses and capacities of components, and Efficient sensitivity analysis by changing parameters on ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Data which have been collected by Los Alamos National Laboratory waste management for the hydrologic characterization of the subsurface at the low level radioactive waste disposal facility, Area G, are reported and discussed briefly. The data includes Unsaturated Flow Apparatus measurements of the unsaturated conductivity in samples from borehole G-5. Analysis compares these values to the predictions from van Genuchten estimates, and the implications for transport and data matching are discussed, especially at the location of the Vapor Phase Notch (VPN). There, evaporation drives a significant vapor flux and the liquid flux cannot be measured accurately by the UFA device. Data also include hydrologic characterization of samples from borehole G-5, Area G surface soils, Los Alamos (Cerros de Rio) basalt, Tsankawi and Cerro-Toledo layers, the Vapor Phase Notch (VPN), and additional new samples from the uppermost tuff layer at Area G. Hydraulic properties from these sample groups can be ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In conducting aircraft surveys for uranium, it is found that temperature inversions can give spurious results because they promote accumulation of radon gas in the atmosphere. The "2"1"4Bi (daughter product of radon) gamma-rays detected from the atmosphere-borne radon are difficult to separate from the "2"1"4Bi gamma-rays originating from the ground, and providing a signature for uranium deposits. The purpose of the present study was to examine the feasibility of making remote temperature soundings of the atmosphere below a low-flying aircraft (140 m or less above ground) by the inversion of radiance measurements taken in the 15-micron carbon dioxide absorption band. Such measurements would identify those temperature inversion conditions possibly leading to an unacceptably large background of gamma-rays from the atmospheric radon. Thus, the incidence of spurious aerial survey data could be greatly reduced. An atmospheric model was set up and the selection of layers ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

There are many sources of population exposures to power-frequency (50/60 Hz) electric and magnetic fields including household appliances and wiring, neighborhood distribution circuits, and high-voltage transmission lines. Bioeffects studies were unable to demonstrate that exposures to power-frequency fields can affect public health. Researcher have likewise been unable to show that the health effects of such exposures are negligible. State and federal regulatory agencies are, therefore, grappling with questions of whether and how to regulate the sitting or design of new extra high-voltage transmission lines so as to control the ground-level fields to which people are exposed. The purpose of this dissertation is to illuminate some of the exposure-related aspects of these question. A taxonomy of the relationship between field encounter and effect is developed to clarify the meaning of terms such as exposure and dose in the power-frequency context. The major inputs to ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The weak interaction between neutrons and protons has never been resolved experimentally. In analogy with the strong NN interaction, the weak NN interaction at low energy can be parametrized in terms of a meson exchange model with parity violating meson-nucleon couplings. Unlike the measured proton-proton weak interaction, the neutron-proton weak interaction is sensitive to the weak pion-nucleon coupling constant H{sub {pi}}{sup 1}. This coupling, which is responsible for the longest-ranged part of the weak NN interaction and is therefore an essential part of any description of weak interactions in nuclei, remains undetermined despite many years of effort. A measurement of the gamma ray directional asymmetry A{sub {gamma}} in the capture of polarized neutrons by parahydrogen has been proposed at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The goal of this experiment is to determine A{sub {gamma}} with a relative standard uncertainty of <5x10{sup ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

In the paper, a fuzzy decision-making methodology is presented to decide the generation schedule of long-term hydrothermal problems with explicit recognition of statistical uncertainties in system production cost data, NO{sub x} emission data, system load demand and hydro reservoir water inflows. In deciding the optimal operation, three objectives operating cost, NO{sub x} emission and unsatisfied load demand over the whole of the planning period are simultaneously minimised. Specific technique is put forth to convert the stochastic models into their deterministic equivalents. The weighted minimax method is used to simulate the tradeoff relation between the conflicting objectives in the non-inferior domain. The fuzzy set theory is exploited to choose the best operating point over the tradeoff curve. An efficient decomposition technique is applied to reduce the complexity of the problem. In each subproblem, thermal generations are obtained by ...

Science.gov (United States)

The influence of the sulfur dioxide emissions from a large copper smelter in Tacoma, Washington, USA, was studied by measuring the chemical composition of rainwater collected upwind and downwind of the source, before and after permanent closure of the smelter in 1985. Data analysis was based on a statistical model that accounted for variability associated with location of 25 sampling sites within three geographic regions, smelter operation, ten individual rain events observed over 2 years, and measurement uncertainty. After smelter closure, the upwind-downwind differences in mean hydrogen ion and excess sulfate ion concentrations within a 600 km/sup 2/ region extending to 25 km downwind of the source had decreased significantly compared to the pre-closure value. No significant decreases in mean ion concentrations were observed farther downwind in the Seattle, urban area. During five events sampled prior to smelter closure, we estimate that an ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thermodynamic data has been selected for solids and aqueous species of technetium. Equilibrium constants have been calculated in the temperature range 0 to 300 deg C at a pressure of 1 bar for T<100 deg C and at the steam saturated pressure at higher temperatures. For aqueous species, the revised Helgeson-Kirkham-Flowers model is used for temperature extrapolations. The data base contains a large amount of estimated data, and the methods used for these estimations are described in detail. A new equation is presented that allows the estimation of #DELTA#_rCdeg_p_m values for mononuclear hydrolysis reactions. The formation constants for chloro complexes of Tc(V) and Tc(IV), whose existence is well established, have been estimated. The majority of entropy and heat capacity values in the data base have also been estimated, and therefore temperature extrapolations are largely based on estimations. The uncertainties derived from these calculations ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) must account for legally protected and endangered species. Uncertainties relating to the validity and sensitivity of EIA arise from predictions and valuation of effects on these species. This paper presents a validity and sensitivity analysis of a model (BIO-SAFE) for assessment of impacts of land use changes and physical reconstruction measures on legally protected and endangered river species. The assessment is based on links between species (higher plants, birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians, butterflies and dragon- and damselflies) and ecotopes (landscape ecological units, e.g., river dune, soft wood alluvial forests), and on value assignment to protected and endangered species using different valuation criteria (i.e., EU Habitats and Birds directive, Conventions of Bern and Bonn and Red Lists). The validity of BIO-SAFE has been tested by comparing predicted effects of landscape changes on the ...

Science.gov (United States)

By using a model dielectric matrix in electron self-energy evaluations the computational effort of a quasiparticle band-structure calculation for a semiconductor is greatly reduced. Applications to various systems with or without inversion symmetry, having narrow or wide band gaps, and semiconductor alloys demonstrate the reliability and accuracy of the method. Calculations have been performed for thirteen semiconducting or insulating materials: Si, LiCl, AlP, AlAs, AlSb, GaP, GaAs, GaSb, InP, InAs, InSb, and the Al{sub 0.5}Ga{sub 0.5}As and In{sub 0.53}Ga{sub 0.47}As alloys. Excellent agreement with experimental results is obtained for the quasiparticle energies for these materials. The only three exceptions, {ital E}({Gamma}{sub 1{ital c}}) of AlP, {ital E}({ital L}{sub 1{ital c}}) of AlAs, and {ital E}({ital L}{sub 1{ital c}}) of AlSb are discussed and attributed to various experimental uncertainties. Several other ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The purpose of this work is to determine the extent to which drill water might be expected to be imbibed by core samples taken from densely welded tuff. In a related experimental study conducted in G-Tunnel, drill water imbibition by the core samples was observed to be minimal. Calculations were carried out with the TOUGH code with the intent of corroborating the imbibition observations. Due to the absence of hydrologic data pertaining directly to G-Tunnel welded tuff, it was necessary to apply data from a similar formation. Because the moisture retention curve was not available for imbibition conditions, the drainage curve was applied to the model. The poor agreement between the observed and calculated imbibition data is attributed primarily to the inappropriateness of the drainage curve. Also significant is the value of absolute permeability (k) assumed in the model. Provided that the semi-log plot of the drainage and imbibition moisture ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Inventories of emissions and removals of greenhouse gases will be used under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol to demonstrate compliance with obligations. During the negotiation process of the Kyoto Protocol it has been a concern that uptake of carbon in forest sinks can be difficult to verify. The reason for large uncertainties are high temporal and spatial variability and lack of representative estimation parameters. Additional uncertainties will be a consequence of definitions made in the Kyoto Protocol reporting. In the Nordic countries the national forest inventories will be very useful to estimate changes in carbon stocks. The main uncertainty lies in the conversion from changes in tradable timber to changes in total carbon biomass. The uncertainties in the emissions of the non-CO{sub 2} carbon from forest soils are particularly high. On the other ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Kyoto Protocol foresees emission trading but does not yet specify verification of (uncertain) emissions. This paper analyses a setting in which parties can meet their emission targets by reducing emissions, by investing in monitoring (reducing uncertainty of emissions) or by (bilaterally) trading permits. We derive the optimality conditions and carry out various numerical simulations. Our applications suggest that including uncertainty could increase compliance costs for the USA, Japan and the European Union. Central Europe and the Former Soviet Union might be able to gain from trading due to higher permit prices. Emissions trading could also lower aggregate uncertainty on emissions.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The climate modeling community has focused recently on improving our understanding of certain processes, such as cloud feedbacks and ocean circulation, that are deemed critical to climate-change prediction. Although attention to such processes is warranted, emphasis on these areas has diminished a general appreciation of the role played by the large-scale dynamics of the extratropical atmosphere. Lack of interest in extratropical dynamics may reflect the assumption that these dynamical processes are a non-problem as far as climate modeling is concerned, since general circulation models (GCMs) calculate motions on this scale from first principles. Nevertheless, serious shortcomings in our ability to understand and simulate large-scale dynamics exist. Partly due to a paucity of standard GCM diagnostic calculations of large-scale motions and their transports of heat, momentum, potential vorticity, and moisture, a comprehensive ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

It is anticipated that early in the next century manned missions into outer space will occur, with a mission to Mars scheduled between 2015 and 2020. However, before such missions can be undertaken, a realistic estimation of the potential risks to the flight crews is required. One of the uncertainties remaining in this risk estimation is that posed by the effects of exposure to the radiation environment of outer space. Although the composition of this environment is fairly well understood, the biological effects arising from exposure to it are not. The reasons for this are three-fold: (1) A small but highly significant component of the radiation spectrum in outer space consists of highly charged, high energy (HZE) particles which are not routinely experienced on earth, and for which there are insufficient data on biological effects; (2) Most studies on the biological effects of radiation to date have been high-dose, high dose-rate, whereas in space, with the ...

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

This article examines how politics and science interacted against a background of uncertainty to shape policy in the case of environmental contamination by polybrominated biphenyls (PBB) in Michigan....Full Text Available

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Recently the ISO standards organization has requested the PV community to establish AMO calibration methodologies for space solar cells. The PV community responded by organizing a series of workshops to review and recommend AMO calibration techniques. One of the activities of the workshop is to review the various calibration methodologies and conduct a comprehensive uncertainty analysis of each method. This paper outlines NASA`s methodology of AMO calibration using the high altitude aircraft method.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Literature references related to definition, generation, and use of evaluated cross section uncertainty (variance-covariance) files are listed with comments intended primarily to guide the reader toward materials of immediate interest. Papers are also cited that cover covariance information for individual experiments and that relate to production and use of multigroup covariance matrices. Titles are divided among several major categories.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The aetiology of childhood leukaemia remains generally unknown, although exposure to moderate and high levels of ionising radiation, such as was experienced during the atomic bombings of Japan or from radiotherapy, is an established cause. Risk models based primarily upon studies of the Japanese A-bomb survivors imply that low-level exposure to ionising radiation, including to ubiquitous natural background radiation, also raises the risk of childhood leukaemia. In a recent paper (Wakeford et al 2009 Leukaemia 23 770-6) we estimated the proportion of childhood leukaemia incidence in Great Britain attributable to natural background radiation to be about 20%. In this paper we employ the two sets of published leukaemia risk models used previously, but use recently published revised estimates of natural background radiation doses received by the red bone marrow of British children to update the previous results. Using the newer dosimetry we ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

We use deep HST/ACS observations to calculate the star formation history (SFH) of the Cetus dwarf spheroidal (dSph) galaxy. Our photometry reaches below the oldest main-sequence turnoffs, which allows us to estimate the age and duration of the main episode of star formation in Cetus. This is well approximated by a single episode that peaked roughly 12 #+-# 0.5 Gyr ago and lasted no longer than about 1.9 #+-# 0.5 Gyr (FWHM). Our solution also suggests that essentially no stars formed in Cetus during the past 8 Gyr. This makes Cetus' SFH comparable to that of the oldest Milky Way dSphs. Given the current isolation of Cetus in the outer fringes of the Local Group, the dominant old population implies that Cetus is a clear outlier in the morphology-Galactocentric distance relation that holds for the majority of the Milky Way dwarf satellites. Our results also show that Cetus continued forming stars until z#approx =# 1, long after the universe was reionized, and that there is no clear ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A variety of critical experiments were constructed of enriched uranium metal during the 1960s and 1970s at the Oak Ridge Critical Experiments Facility (ORCEF) in support of criticality safety operations at the Y-12 Plant. The purposes of these experiments included the evaluation of storage, casting, and handling limits for the Y-12 Plant and providing data for verification of calculation methods and cross-sections for nuclear criticality safety applications. These included solid cylinders of various diameters, annuli of various inner and outer diameters, two and three interacting cylinders of various diameters, and graphite and polyethylene reflected cylinders and annuli. Of the hundreds of delayed critical experiments, one experiment was comprised of a stack of approximately 7-inch-diameter metal discs. The bottom of the stack consisted of uranium with an approximate height of 4-1/8 inches. The top of the stack consisted of beryllium with an approximate height of 5-9/16 inches. This ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Monte Carlo simulation of beam modifiers such as physical wedges and compensating filters has been performed with a rectilinear voxel geometry module. A modified version of the EGS4/DOSXYZ code has been developed for this purpose. The new implementations have been validated against the BEAM Monte Carlo code using its standard component modules (CMs) in several geometrical conditions. No significant disagreements were found within the statistical errors of 0.5% for photons and 2% for electrons. The clinical applicability and flexibility of the new version of the code has been assessed through an extensive verification versus dosimetric data. Both Varian multi-leaf collimator (MLC) wedges and standard wedges have been simulated and compared against experiments for 6 MV photon beams and different field sizes. Good agreement was found between calculated and measured depth doses and lateral dose profiles along both wedged and unwedged directions for different depths and focus-to-surface ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Selecting the best bit for an application is a difficult task because a large number of variables can influence bit performance, therefore upon a decision to run a particular bit type based solely on the average measurements of previous bit performances can lead to a very important impact on the drilling cost. Bits are designed with different concepts and that recent technological advances allow them to be used in a wider range of applications that could improve their drilling programs. Rather than a deterministic estimate, a more mature view of a bit performance is a presentation of possible outputs (bits longevity in drilled meters, rate of penetration, bit cost and cost per meter) in recognition of the uncertainty associated with drilling wells. An evaluation of a simple model based on the drilling cost equation indicates the sensitivity of each variable - described here by its probability distribution function - on the bottom line and can ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carbon monoxide can be produced in severe accidents from interaction of ex-vessel molten core with concrete. Depending on the particular core-melt scenario, the type of concrete and geometric factors affecting the interaction, the quantities of carbon monoxide produced can vary widely, up to several volume percent in the containment. Carbon monoxide is a combustible gas. The carbon monoxide thus produced is in addition to the hydrogen produced by metal-water reactions and by radiolysis, and represents a possibly significant contribution to the combustible gas inventory in the containment. Assessment of possible accident loads to containment thus requires knowledge of the combustion properties of both CO and H_2 in the containment atmosphere. Extensive studies have been carried out and are still continuing in the nuclear industry to assess the threat of hydrogen in a severe reactor accident. However the contribution of carbon monoxide to the combustion threat has received less ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP) is a single, highly integrated technical program for maintaining the safety and reliability of the U.S. nuclear stockpile. The SSP uses past nuclear test data along with current and future nonnuclear test data, computational modeling and simulation, and experimental facilities to advance understanding of nuclear weapons. It includes stockpile surveillance, experimental research, development and engineering programs, and an appropriately scaled production capability to support stockpile requirements. This integrated national program requires the continued use of current facilities and programs along with new experimental facilities and computational enhancements to support these programs. The Advanced Simulation and Computing Program (ASC)1 is a cornerstone of the SSP, providing simulation capabilities and computational resources to support the annual stockpile assessment and certification, to study advanced nuclear-weapons ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A reliability approach for probabilistic modeling of one-dimensional non-reactive and reactive transport in porous media provides two important quantitative results: (1) an estimate of the probability that dimensionless concentration equals or exceeds some specified level and, (2) the sensitivity of the probabilistic outcome to likely changes in each uncertain variable. The reliability approach is particularly attractive because it can incorporate various marginal probability density functions (PDF) for any of the uncertain variables. In this work uncertain variables include: groundwater flow velocity, diffusion coefficient, dispersivity, distribution coefficient, porosity and bulk density. The primary objective is to examine how the probabilistic outcome is influenced by choice of marginal PDF, correlation and magnitude of uncertainty for the variables. Because little information exists concerning the statistical characteristics of these ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Although the standard model of particle physics agrees perfectly with experimental data, it is unlikely the final theory describing particles and their interactions. New phenomena has been searched in the jets and missing transverse energy topology. Such phenomena may be due to the pair production of leptoquarks decaying into a quark and a neutrino or the pair production of stops decaying into a charm and a neutralino which is assumed to be the lightest supersymmetric particle. These searches have been performed with the Ddiamter detector at hadronic collider TeVatron with a center of mass energy of 1.96 TeV. This kind of searches needs a good understanding of the jet energy calibration. The determination of the relative jet energy scale has allowed us to reduce the systematic uncertainties on the jet energy measurement when comparing the data and the simulation. Moreover a new method has been developed in order to correct simulated jets for ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Naturally Occurring Radioactive Material (N.O.R.M.) occurs in most soil and rock, and by mining and mineral processing, some of the radionuclides are significantly enhanced. An in-situ gamma-ray detector called M.E.D.U.S.A., has been used to produce a map of relative activity concentrations in a gold mine tailings dam on the Witwatersrand in South Africa. A CsI(Na) scintillation detector is used in this system. M.E.D.U.S.A. spectra obtained from the survey were analyzed using the Full-Spectrum Analysis (F.S.A.) procedure to compute the {sup 40}K, {sup 238}U and {sup 232}Th activity concentrations. The activity concentrations are used with global positioning data (G.P.S.) to produce the concentration maps. A hyper-pure germanium gamma-ray detector (Hp Ge) was used to measure gamma-rays from the naturally occurring nuclides for soil samples taken at different points on the site to calibrate the M.E.D.U.S.A. system. Radon soil gas measurements were performed at certain points on the mine ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

As an explosion develops in the collapsed core of a massive star, neutrino emission drives convection in a hot bubble of radiation, nucleons, and pairs just outside a proto-neutron star. Shortly thereafter, neutrinos drive a wind-like outflow from the neutron star. In both the convective bubble and the early wind, weak interactions temporarily cause a proton excess (Y{sub e} {approx}> 0.50) to develop in the ejected matter. This situation lasts for at least the first second, and the approximately 0.05-0.1 M{sub {circle_dot}} that is ejected has an unusual composition that may be important for nucleosynthesis. Using tracer particles to follow the conditions in a two-dimensional model of a successful supernova explosion calculated by Janka, Buras, and Rampp (2003), they determine the composition of this material. most of it is helium and {sup 56}Ni. The rest is relatively rare species produced by the decay of proton-rich isotopes unstable to positron emission. ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Natural cooling conditions of the nuclear fuel in the channel type reactor after its shut down are commonly determined with relatively high uncertainty. This is not only to he lack of adequate measurements of thermal parameters i.e. the residual power generation, the coolant flow and temperatures, but also due to indeterminate model of convection mechanism. The numerical simulation of natural convection in multitube fuel assembly in the fuel channel leads to various convection modes including evidently chaotic behaviour. To determine the real cooling conditions in the MARIA research reactor a series of experiments has been performed with fuel assembly equipped with a set of thermocouples. After some forced cooling period (the shortest was half an hour after the reactor shut down) the reactor was left with the only natural convection. Two completely different cooling modes have been observed. The MARIA core consists of series of individual fuel ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The authors would like to determine |V{sub cb}| from the exclusive semi-leptonic decay B{yields}D*lv. The differential decay rate is d{Lambda}/dw = G{sub F}{sup 2}/4{pi}{sup 3}(w{sup 2}-1){sup 1/2}m{sub D*}{sup 3} (m{sub B}-m{sub D*}){sup 2}G(w)|V{sub cb}|{sup 2}|F{sub B{yields}D*}(w)|{sup 2}, where w = v {center_dot} v{prime} and G(1) = 1. At zero recoil (w = 1) heavy-quark symmetry requires F{sub B{yields}D*}(1) to be close to 1. So, |V{sub cb}| is determined by dividing measurements of d{Lambda}/dw by the phase space and well-known factors, and extrapolating to w {yields} 1. This yields |V{sub cb}|F{sub B{yields}D*}(1), and F{sub B{yields}D*}(1) is taken from ''theory''. To date models [1] or a combination of a rigorous inequality plus judgement [2] have been used to estimate F{sub B{yields}D*}(1) - 1. In this work [3] they calculate F{sub B{yields}D*}(1) with lattice gauge theory, in the so-called quenched approximation, but ...

Science.gov (United States)

There are five tasks within this project on thermally stable coal-based jet fuels. Progress on each of the tasks is described. Task 1, Investigation of the quantitative degradation chemistry of fuels, has 5 subtasks which are described: Literature review on thermal stability of jet fuels; Pyrolytic and catalytic reactions of potential endothermic fuels: cis- and trans-decalin; Use of site specific {sup 13}C-labeling to examine the thermal stressing of 1-phenylhexane: A case study for the determination of reaction kinetics in complex fuel mixtures versus model compound studies; Estimation of critical temperatures of jet fuels; and Surface effects on deposit formation in a flow reactor system. Under Task 2, Investigation of incipient deposition, the subtask reported is Uncertainty analysis on growth and deposition of particles during heating of coal-derived aviation gas turbine fuels; under Task 3, Characterization of solid gums, sediments, and ...

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

The quantitative experimental uncertainty in the structure of fully hydrated, biologically relevant, fluid (L_α) phase lipid bilayers has been too large to...Full Text Available

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Cancer treatment with ionizing radiation is often compromised by organ motion, in particular for lung cases. Motion uncertainties can significantly degrade an otherwise optimized treatment plan....Full Text Available

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The author have prepared a new, fusion-oriented library of multigroup neutron cross sections, scattering matrices, and covariances (uncertainties and correlations). The 74-group library, called COVFILS-2, has been used, or will be used, by neutronics groups at Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL) at the University of California at Los Angeles, and at the Swiss Federal Institute for Reactor Research in the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of fusion-relevant integral experiments such as the Li/sub 2/O experiment performed at the Fast Neutron Source Facility in Japan and the Lithium breeding module experiment planned at the LOTUS facility in Lausanne, Switzerland. Another intended use of this library is in the estimation of the uncertainty in key performance parameters (such as the breeding ratio) of conceptual fusion reactors. The 14 materials included in the first version of COVFILS-2 are hydrogen, /sup 6/Li, /sup 7/Li, ...

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

After discrimination training on a multiple variable-interval extinction schedule of food reinforcement, pigeons were placed on the uncued or mixed version of the same schedule and allowed to make...Full Text Available

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

In many radiotherapy clinics, geometric uncertainties in the delivery of 3D conformal radiation therapy and intensity modulated radiation therapy of the prostate are reduced by aligning the...Full Text Available

Science.gov (United States)

Amongst the minor actinides issued from the spent nuclear fuel, {sup 241}Am is present in high concentration and contributes significantly to the long-term radiotoxicity of nuclear waste. A major uncertainty was present in the transmutation chain of {sup 241}Am when irradiated by a high intensity thermal neutron flux. This uncertainty was brought about by the poor knowledge of the {sup 242gs}Am neutron capture cross section. A dedicated experiment has been performed at the Institut Laue-Langevin in Grenoble, which gives a definitive experimental answer to this problem.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The Daya Bay reactor neutrino experiment is located at the Daya Bay nuclear power plant in Shenzhen, China. The experiment deploys eight 'identical' antineutrino detectors to measure antineutrino fluxes from six 2.9 GWth reactor cores in three underground experimental halls at different distances. The target zone of the Daya Bay detector is filled with 20 t 0.1% Gd doped LAB liquid scintillator. The baseline uncorrelated detector uncertainty is ?0.38% using current experimental techniques. Daya Bay can reach a sensitivity of sin22?13<0.01 with baseline uncertainties after 3 years of data taking.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The reasons for including variance-covariance information in evaluated nuclear data files are reviewed. Accomplihments and obstacles in meeting these needs are identified. The capability to develop and utilize evaluated cross-section covariance files has been largely demonstrated, but comprehensive files of soundly based covariance data remain to be evaluated and not all types of cross-section data have yet been included. The status of the ENDF-VI covariance formats is discussed. Priorities are suggested for further development. Most effort should be concentrated to fully develop the capability to estimate the nuclear data uncertainties in quantities calculated for a broad energy spectrum. 12 refs.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Monte Carlo criticality calculations have been performed for over 50 years for reactor physics and criticality safety applications. With today's faster computers, these calculations are being carried out to greater precision (smaller uncertainties) in keff, and detailed distributions of power and reaction rates are being computed routinely. This paper provides a review of the fundamental theory of Monte Carlo criticality calculations, with guidance on practical methods for: (1) assuring convergence of both keff and the source distribution, (2) minimizing the bias in keff and reaction rate distributions, and (3) dealing with the under-prediction bias in uncertainties for keff and reaction rate distributions. (authors)

Science.gov (United States)

BackgroundPolicies on waste disposal in Europe are heterogeneous and rapidly changing, with potential health implications that are largely unknown. We conducted a health impact assessment of landfilling and incineration in three European countries: Italy, Slovakia and England.MethodsA total of 49 (Italy), 2 (Slovakia), and 11 (England) incinerators were operating in 2001 while for landfills the figures were 619, 121 and 232, respectively. The study population consisted of residents living within 3 km of an incinerator and 2 km of a landfill. Excess risk estimates from epidemiological studies were used, combined with air pollution dispersion modelling for particulate matter (PM10) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). For incinerators, we estimated attributable cancer incidence and years of life lost (YoLL), while for landfills we estimated attributable cases of congenital anomalies and low birth weight infants.ResultsAbout 1,000,000, 16,000, and 1,200,000 subjects lived ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Population residing in the northern part of the Chelyabinsk oblast and the south eastern part of the Sverdlovsk oblast of Russia affected to accidental exposure since 1957. The territory (East Ural Radioactive Trace - EURT) was contaminated after explosion of container with highly radioactive wastes at the Mayak Production Association. Studies of health effects of exposure in the southern, head part of EURT are conducted in the Ural Research and Practical Center of Radiation Medicine (U.R.P.R.M.). In the 1990's U.R.P.C.R.M. formed a cohort of EURT within Chelyabinsk oblast (14,500 cases and 19,400 external controls). The cohort was followed in 1957-1987 and the results of the study are discussed by Crestinina et al. First results of study on exposure late health effects among rural population in the northern part of the EURT are presented in this paper. Firstly, or the period 1958-2000 a statistically significant increase in cancer mortality associated with accidental exposure ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Using standard brass alloy samples, an approach to reduce the laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy measurement uncertainty was tested and proved. Two important parameters for plasma characterization, the plasma temperature and the electron density, were applied to minimize the signal uncertainties due to uncontrollable experimental parameter variations. Results show that for the pulse-to-pulse analysis, the signal fluctuations can be significantly reduced by utilizing the plasma characteristic information. The major source for the single pulse fluctuations is the redistribution of the characteristic line at different temperatures according to the Boltzmann distribution under LTE. The change of the degree of ionization also contributes to the signal fluctuations. For the multi-pulse analysis, due to the nonlinear relationship between the plasma temperature and the line intensity, it is not applicable to utilize the Boltzmann distribution to ...

Science.gov (United States)

In this study, adjoint sensitivity theory is developed for equations of two-dimensional steady-state flow in a confined aquifer. Both the primary flow equation and the adjoint sensitivity equation are solved using the Galerkin finite element method. The developed computer code is used to investigate the regional flow parameters of the Leadville Formation of the Paradox Basin in Utah and the Wolcamp carbonate/sandstone aquifer of the Palo Duro Basin in the Texas Panhandle. Two performance measures are evaluated, local heads and velocity in the vicinity of potential high-level nuclear waste repositories. The results illustrate the sensitivity of calculated local heads to the boundary conditions. Local velocity-related performance measures are more sensitive to hydraulic conductivities. The uncertainty in the performance measure is a function of the parameter sensitivity, parameter variance and the correlation between parameters. Given a parameter covariance matrix, ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The use of standard cementitious material creates pulses of pH in the magnitude of 12-13 in the leachates and release alkalis. Such a high pH is detrimental and also unnecessarily complicates the safety analysis of the repository. As no reliable pH-plume models exist, the use of products giving a pH below 11 in the leachates facilitates the safety analysis. Also, according to current understanding, the use of low-pH cement (pH = 11) will not disturb the functioning of the bentonite, although limiting the amount of low-pH cement is recommended. A result of the project is that there are both low-pH cementitious material for grouting larger fractures (= 100 {mu}m) and non-cementitious material for grouting smaller fractures (< 100 {mu}m) that will, after further optimisation work, be recommended for grouting of deep repositories. This project concentrated on the technical development of properties for the low pH grouts. Long-term safety and environmental ...

British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

Over a 6.5-year period a total of 2554 values were reported by nine laboratories for 259 certified or reference nutrient concentrations in 26 certified reference materials (CRM) submitted to contract laboratories, blinded, as part of the qualifying process for analytical contracts and in the routine sample stream as part of the National Food and Nutrient Analysis Program. Each value was converted to a Z?-score, reflecting the difference from the assigned value related to the combined expected analytical uncertainty plus the uncertainty in the CRM value. Z?-scores >|3.0| were considered unacceptable. For some nutrients (Na, folate, dietary fiber, pantothenic acid, thiamin, tocopherols, carotenoids, monounsaturated, and polyunsaturated fatty acids), >20% of Z?-scores were >|3.0|. For total f...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vacuum pressure standards of the orifice-flow type require known gas flows of 10/sup -6/ mol/s (10/sup -2/ atm cm/sup 3//s at 0 /sup 0/C) and less. Known gas flows can also be used to calibrate ''standard'' leaks by comparing the pressures generated when flows from the leak and the flowmeter are alternately passed through a constant conductance. Two constant-pressure, piston displacement flowmeters developed at the National Bureau of Standards are described that can generate flows between 10/sup -6/ and 10/sup -10/ mol/s with an estimated uncertainty of 0.8% to 2%. Comparisons of the flowmeters with alternate calibration techniques, and repeated low-range leak and vacuum gauge calibrations, have been used to confirm the estimated uncertainty and random errors of the flowmeter.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The application of a method for determining the temperature of an oxygen-replenished air stream heated to 2600 K by a hydrogen burner is reviewed and discussed. The purpose of the measurements is to determine the spatial uniformity of the temperature in the core flow of a ramjet test facility. The technique involves sampling the product gases at the exit of the test section nozzle to infer the makeup of the reactant gases entering the burner. Knowing also the temperature of the inlet gases and assuming the flow is at chemical equilibrium, the adiabatic flame temperature is determined using an industry accepted chemical equilibrium computer code. Local temperature depressions are estimated from heat loss calculations. A description of the method, hardware and procedures is presented, along with local heat loss estimates and uncertainty assessments. The uncertainty of the method is estimated at {+-}31 K, and the spatial uniformity was measured ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The difference between the two nonclassical lights, i.e., the squeezed state and number-phase minimum uncertainty state (NUS) is discussed. The four different generation principles for NUS are described. They are: unitary evolution using self-phase modulation; nonunitary state reduction by the first kind measurement; controlled state reduction by quantum correlation measurement-feedback, and high saturated laser oscillation with suppressed-pump-noise. The constant current-driven semiconductor laser based on the last principle generated the NUS with photon number noise reduced below the standard quantum limit by 40 percent in the entire frequency region from dc to 1.1 GHz. Several applications of NUS including quantum communication, quantum mechanical computers and interferometric gravitational detection are discussed briefly. This presentation is represented by viewgraphs only.

British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

In this paper, the performance of customer-owned distributed generation (DG) units is quantified from different perspectives through an uncertainty study. A Monte Carlo-based method is applied to assess the stochastic operation of the customer-owned DG units in the power distribution system. Several cases are studied to analyze the impact on system performance of using such generators, with the emphasis on benefits. The results of the studied cases show that proper operation of customer-owned DG units placed close to significant consumption centers offers several benefits which lead to significant energy savings and improvement in the performance indices while maintaining the cost-effectiveness. Furthermore, based on the energy demand, different electricity price scenarios considering a co...

CERN Document Server

Statistical modelling for social researchers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith-Purcell (S-P) radiation is produced when electrons graze the surface of a grating. Calculations based on the theory of diffraction radiation show that, given severe restrictions on e"--beam quality, S-P radiation is highly efficient. Efficient S-P x-ray generation requires relativistic e"- beams having a transverse momentum and dimension whose product approaches the Heisenberg uncertainty limit.

Science.gov (United States)

... matrices were written in the form R(t) = R'(t) Mpp T V(t) = V (t) MppT (C-3) 49 Page 59. ... GW~/EE/64.-9 where ra(!L) rb(L) 0 MPPT= (C-4) [rb(L) ra(L) 0 ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The application of various signal processing methods to extract energy storage information from plasma diamagnetism sensors occurring during physics experiments on the Tandom Mirror Experiment-Upgrade (TMX-U) is discussed. We show how these processing techniques can be used to decrease the uncertainty in the corresponding sensor measurements. The algorithms suggested are implemented using SIG, an interactive signal processing package developed at LLNL.

CERN Document Server

We combine a limited number of accurately measured transition frequencies in hydrogen and deuterium, recent quantum electrodynamics (QED) calculations, and, as an essential additional ingredient, a generalized least-squares analysis, to obtain precise and optimal predictions for hydrogen and deuterium transition frequencies. Some of the predicted transition frequencies have relative uncertainties more than an order of magnitude smaller than that of the g-factor of the electron, which was previously the most accurate prediction of QED.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The uncertainties of growth in Croatian future energy, particularly electricity demand, together with growing environmental considerations and protection constraints, are such that Croatia needs to have flexibility to respond by having the option of expanding the nuclear sector. The paper deals with nuclear energy as an option for croatian sustainable economic development. The conclusion is that there is a necessity for extended use of nuclear energy in Croatia because most certainly nuclear energy can provide energy necessary to sustain progress. (author).

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Existing test procedures for measuring and rating thermal performance require the determination of the angular response of collectors in order to account for nonnormal incident beam irradiance. Angular response measurements for four different types of collectors, each type tested by three different laboratories, are presented and analyzed. Substantial differences, both within and between laboratories, are reported for the same type collectors. An analysis of the measurement procedure shows that experimentally determined angular response parameters are subject to relatively large uncertainties. The problem results to a large extent from measuring collector efficiencies at non-normal incident angles where measurement uncertainty is of the same order of magnitude as the efficiency reduction attributable to these off-normal angles. Other factors which can affect angular response measurements and the method of correlating results are also discussed. ...

CERN Document Server

We report an uncertainty evaluation of an optical lattice clock based on the $^1S_0\\leftrightarrow^3P_0$ transition in the bosonic isotope $^{174}$Yb by use of magnetically induced spectroscopy. The absolute frequency of the $^1S_0\\leftrightarrow^3P_0$ transition has been determined through comparisons with optical and microwave standards at NIST. The weighted mean of the evaluations is $\

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The effect of measurement geometry on the determination of the activity of solutions containing "1"2"5I for use in brachytherapy applications has been investigated for 5 mL plastic syringes and 2 mL conical glass dose vials as a function of filling mass. New dial settings for the syringes over a filling mass range of 1 to 3 g have been determined to be 497#+-#8 and 469#+-#8 (expanded, k=2, uncertainties) for the NIST Capintec CRC-12 and Capintec CRC-35R, respectively, with any effect due to the filling mass lying within the uncertainty in the activity calibration. A filling mass effect was observed in the dose vials, causing a 10.5% reduction in the chamber response from a 2 g filling mass to 1 g. Dial settings at 2 g were experimentally found to be 143#+-#2 and 135#+-#2 (expanded uncertainties) for the NIST Capintec CRC-12 and Capintec CRC-35R, respectively. The appropriate dial settings for the same vials with a 1 g ...

Science.gov (United States)

A comparison was made of the advantages and disadvantages of two codes, SAND-II and FERRET, for determining the neutron flux spectrum and uncertainty from experimental dosimeter measurements as anticipated in the FFTF Reactor Characterization Program. This comparison involved an examination of the methodology and the operational performance of each code. The merits of each code were identified with respect to theoretical basis, directness of method, solution uniqueness, subjective influences, and sensitivity to various input parameters.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thirty years ago, in 1967, the new definition of the second based on a quantum phenomenon, the hyperfine splitting of the groundstate of the "1"3"3Cs atom, was passed by the 13th General Conference on Weight and Measure. What followed was a fascinating improvement of the performance of caesium clocks which is still pursued. Their total uncertainty could be reduced, until 1995, by 4 orders of magnitude. With the development of the so-called fountain clocks, another factor of ten is within reach. (orig.)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

In this paper the robust stability analysis of a single machine infinite bus system is investigated using interval matrix theory. Specifically the parameters of the power system stabilizer are considered as uncertainties in the system A matrix. The range of these parameters for which the system is Hurwitz stable is then found using interval matrix theory. (Author)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A comparison of maximum likelihood (or chi-square) and Bayesian peak fitting techniques shows that the latter can reduce peak intensity uncertainties by a factor of up to ten in the case of closely separated doublets, leading to greatly improved doublet resolution. The need for laboratories to demonstrate the reliability of their chosen peak fitting techniques and measures of peak intensity is also demonstrated. (orig.).

Science.gov (United States)

A laser spectrometer for the ethylenediaminetetra-acetic acid (EDTA) titration of magnesium or calcium ions that is designed around a handheld laser pointer as the source and a photoresistor as the detector is developed. Findings show that the use of the spectrometer reduces the degree of uncertainty and error in one part of the EDTA titrations, however overall standard deviations depend on the skill of the student and their willingness to be careful and precise.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The molar heat capacities (Cp,m) of a series of synthetic forsterite (Fo)-fayalite (Fa), (Mg2SiO4+Fe2SiO4), olivines have been measured between 5K and 300K on milligram-sized samples with the Physical Properties Measurement System (Quantum Design(R)). Sharp, ?-type heat capacity anomalies are observed in the Fe-rich compositions fayalite, Fo10Fa90, Fo20Fa80, Fo30Fa70, and Fo40Fa60. The corresponding Neel temperatures TN decrease linearly from 64.5K in fayalite to 32.8K in Fo40Fa60 following the relationship TN=79.02.xFa-14.07. Fo50Fa50 and Mg-richer olivines show weak broad features in the heat capacity data around 15K to 20K that decrease in magnitude with increasing forsterite content. In order to derive and separate molar electronic, magnetic and vibrational heat capacity contributions, Cel,m, Cmag,m, and Cvib,m from the experimental heat capacities (Ctot,m), we used a single-parametric phonon dispersion model to calculate Cvib,m for the solid-solution members ...

Science.gov (United States)

Separate comprehensive final reports on the status of the SRC-II Demonstration Plant Design and on operating experiences at the Ft. Lewis and P-99 SRC pilot plants were prepared after the termination of those projects. However, time constraints made it impossible to consolidate all of the pilot plant data and operating experiences and relate these to the Demonstration Plant or future plant design. Most of the experimental programs during the later stages of pilot plant operation were in direct support of specific technical uncertainties identified in design work. The results of these programs would have been of substantial use in verifying or modifying design philosophy had the project proceeded. This technical data analysis project was undertaken to consolidate the pilot plant results presented in numerous reports under DOE Contract DE-AC01-79ET10104 for operation of the pilot plants, and to relate these results to specific Demonstration Plant ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The neutron capture cross sections of Sr-88 and Y-89 were measured in a quasi-stellar neutron spectrum for kT = 25 keV via the activation method. Relevant systematic uncertainties were determined experimentally by repeated activations under different conditions and with different samples. Gold was used as a cross section standard. The resulting stellar cross sections for kT = 30 keV are 6.13 + or - 0.18 mbarn for Sr-88 and 19.0 + or - 0.6 mbarn for Y-89. The partial cross section Sr-86(n, gamma) Sr-87m was measured to 48.1 + or - 1.2 mbarn. Compared to previous data, the associated uncertainties are reduced by factors of 3 and 5, respectively. The implications for s-process nucleosynthesis around magic neutron number N = 50 are discussed in the light of new information on neutron density and temperature. 38 refs.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The present study treats only the collective risk of ex-utero leukaemia associated with the routine releases of the nuclear industrial installations of the North Cotentin (0.0009 cases over the considered period) the uncertainty on the contribution to the collective risk of the incidents and the accidents of the nuclear installations (notably the drilling of the pipe of release in sea arisen in 1979-1980 and the fire of the waste silo on January 6. 1981, for the reprocessing plant of La Hague has not been considered. Only 45% of the risk are taken into account by the study. Every calculated value remains very inferior to the number of leukemia cases observed (4 cases observed for two expected cases) and to the risk of radioinduced leukemia any merged exposure sources, that is to say 0.84 cases. It appears thus not very probable that the nuclear installations of the North - Cotentin can explain the tendency to the excess of observed leukaemia. The limits of the ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper examined the potential of steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) technology for increasing productivity in the Orinoco heavy oilfields of Venezuela. A computerized simulation tool was used to generate a matrix of parameters needed to compare SAGD processes with cold production techniques in the Carabobo region of the Orinoco belt. Parameters included vertical connectivity, oil saturation, and net pay. Monte Carlo simulations and uncertainty assessments were used to generate cold production scenarios. Optimized SAGD scenarios were then designed for each case. Results of the study suggested that vertical local connectivity was an important parameter for the identification of suitable areas for EOR and SAGD. Unfavorable conditions for the application of SAGD during early production stages were identified. SAGD behaviour improved through the adjustment of injection rates during different stages of the process. It was concluded that the simulation run times ...

CERN Document Server

We present results from Spitzer Space Telescope observations of the mid-infrared phase variations of three short-period extrasolar planetary systems: HD 209458, HD 179949 and 51 Peg. We gathered IRAC images in multiple wavebands at eight phases of each planet's orbit. We find the uncertainty in relative photometry from one epoch to the next to be significantly larger than the photon counting error at 3.6 micron and 4.5 micron. We are able to place 2-sigma upper limits of only 2% on the phase variations at these wavelengths. At 8 micron the epoch-to-epoch systematic uncertainty is comparable to the photon counting noise and we detect a phase function for HD 179949 which is in phase with the planet's orbit and with a relative peak-to-trough amplitude of 0.00141(33). Assuming that HD 179949b has a radius R_J < R_p < 1.2R_J and a small Bond albedo, it must recirculate less than 30% of incident stellar energy to its night side at the 1-sigma ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The fuel composition heterogeneity effect on reactor performance parameters was assessed by refueling simulations for three DUPIC fuel options of fuel composition heterogeneity control: the fissile content adjustment, the reactivity control by slightly enriched and depleted uranium, and the reactivity control by natural uranium. For each DUPIC fuel option, the simulations were performed using 30 heterogeneous fuel types which were determined by the agglomerative hierarchical clustering method. The heterogeneity effect was considered during the refueling simulation by randomly selecting fuel types for the refueling operation. The refueling simulations of the heterogeneous core have shown that the key performance parameters such as the maximum channel power (MCP), maximum bundle power (MBP), and channel power peaking factor (CPPF) are close to those of the core that has single fuel type. For the three DUPIC fuel options, the uncertainties of MCP, MBP, and CPPF due to ...

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

SIMV (simulation and modeling of ventilation) is a quantitative system for the mathematical modeling and simulation of pulmonary...Full Text Available

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The total half-life and the half-life for spontaneous fission are evaluated for the various long-lived nuclides of interest. Recommended values are presented for "2"4"1Am, "2"4"2Am, "2"4"3Am, "2"4"2Cm, "2"4"3Cm, "2"4"4Cm, "2"4"5Cm, "2"4"6Cm, "2"4"7Cm, "2"4"8Cm, and "2"5"0Cm. The uncertainties are provided at the 95% confidence limit for each of the recommended values. (author).

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Considerable potential exists for increasing the annual efficiency of line-focus collectors by reducing receiver heat losses. Five alternate receiver designs are compared with a standard design. The comparison is based on annual collector-field efficiency using optimized receiver designs. Of the receivers studied, the all-glass design and the cavity design provide the greatest increases in efficiency. Average fluid temperatures range from 200/sup 0/ to 450/sup 0/C. As a guide for further study, areas of uncertainty and potential problems are identified.

British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

The objective of this paper is to analyze the implications of varying degrees of financial openness for the impact of technology shocks on a real, small open economy with financial and informational frictions. Aggregate fluctuations and propagation mechanisms under increasing financial openness are investigated in a dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium framework in the case of positive technology shocks. The imperfections in the economy in the form of informational asymmetries among the agents and uncertainty in the production process necessitate financial intermediation and collateralized borrowing in the economy. The reason to abstract from money in the setup of the framework is to be able to concentrate on the real implications of increasing financial openness for the effect of tech...

British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

There is a growing interest on dynamic and broader concepts of deprivation such as vulnerability, which takes in to account the destitution of individuals from future shocks. We use the framework of decision making under uncertainty to arrive at a new measure of vulnerability to poverty. We highlight the importance of current standard of living to better capture the notion of vulnerability. In conceptualizing the new class of measures of vulnerability, we thus move beyond the standard expected poverty measures that is commonly found in the literature. We also axiomatically characterize the new class of measure and discuss some of its properties.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

An accelerator experiment was performed using a low-energy antiproton beam to measure antiproton detection efficiency of BESS, a balloon-borne spectrometer with a superconducting solenoid. Measured efficiencies showed good agreement with calculated ones derived from the BESS Monte Carlo simulation based on GEANT/GHEISHA. With detailed verification of the BESS simulation, the relative systematic error of detection efficiency derived from the BESS simulation has been determined to be {+-}5%, compared with the previous estimation of {+-}15% which was the dominant uncertainty for measurements of cosmic-ray antiproton flux.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Four major reasons why municipal resource recovery operations are uneconomical are analyzed. These reasons are: alternative municipal waste disposal methods are artificially underpriced when the costs of meeting modern environmental standards are considered; high capital costs related to the procurement of resource recovery systems and the marketing of recovered resources; uncertainties associated with the costs and performance of resource recovery technologies; and construction and operating risks of municipal waste resource recovery systems. If resource recovery is to become economical, purchasers of plants must develop innovative process designs and equipment and formulate new operating and maintenance procedures. (1 photo)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

We discuss the inclusive production of D{sup *{+-}} mesons in {gamma}p collisions at DESY HERA, based on a calculation at next-to-leading order in the general-mass variable-flavor-number scheme. In this approach, MS subtraction is applied in such a way that large logarithmic corrections are resummed in universal parton distribution and fragmentation functions and finite mass terms are taken into account. We present detailed numerical results for a comparison with data obtained at HERA and discuss various sources of theoretical uncertainties. (orig.)

British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

Correct prediction of the fission products inventory in irradiated nuclear fuels is essential for accurate estimation of fuel burnup, establishing proper requirements for spent fuel transportation and storage, materials accountability and nuclear forensics. Such prediction is impossible without accurate knowledge of neutron induced fission yields. The uncertainty of the fission yields reported in the ENDF/B-VII.0 library is not uniform across all of the data and much of the improvement is desired for certain fissioning isotopes and fission products. We discuss our measurements of cumulative fission yields in nuclear fuels irradiated in thermal and fast reactor spectra using Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Financing space solar power generation programmes has several inherent difficulties. Such large-scale projects are usually easily defined with an expected economic return, construction time, useful service life and defined management structure. As yet, solar power satellites for power generation possess none of these as the idea exists conceptually and the technology still needs to be developed. Methods for overcoming these uncertainties and securing financial backing are described. Venture capital could finance a research/marketing firm. US Government support through a cost plus short-term monopoly to facilitate private debt financing could provide an answer. (UK)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This document presents a detailed schedule for the implementation of the strategy for managing defense remote-handled (RH) transuranic (TRU) waste. The baseline management strategy was defined in the Defense Remote-Handled Transuranic Waste Cost/Schedule Optimization Study and is summarized in this document. Also included are revised RH TRU waste inventory projections, current site management plans, a list of key decision points and milestones, and a discussion of uncertainties associated with management of RH TRU waste. The plans are summarized in a detailed schedule diagram and in an RH TRU waste work off diagram. 9 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

An accelerator beam experiment was performed using a low-energy antiproton beam to measure antiproton detection efficiency of the BESS detector. Measured and calculated efficiencies derived from the BESS Monte Carlo simulation based on GRANT/GHEISHA showed good agreement. With detailed verification of the BESS simulation, the relative systematic error of detection efficiency derived from the BESS simulation has been determined to be {+-}5%, compared with the previous estimation of {+-}15% which was the dominant uncertainty for measurements of cosmic-ray antiproton flux. (author)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

No abstract prepared.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

No abstract prepared.

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

The Cox proportional hazards model is the most widely used model for survival analysis because of its simplicity. The fundamental assumption in this model is the proportionality of the hazard function....Full Text Available

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

No abstract prepared.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

No abstract prepared.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper presents the regulatory experience gained from Wolsong Units 2,3 and 4 - Special Safety System Instrumentation Uncertainty for Trip Setpoint and Allowable Values. The equipment diversity method for the defense against common mode failure was applied to the transmitters of shutdown system number 2. However the Units experienced an unexpected drift problem with which the performance did not meet the Technical Specification (Tech Spec) Surveillance Requirements (SR). Discussed are the background, status and corrective actions, regulatory positions and issues to be solved for the drift problem. It was an instrument uncertainty methodology that the designer of safety system should have shown when the drift problem occurred. For deeper understanding of the problem, we present the background of Tech Spec SR for setpoints in Korean PWR and in CANDU reactors. The Setpoint Verification Test(SVT) and Calibration Test(CT) shall be achieved by ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The previous {sup 58}Ni and {sup 60}Ni set of resonance parameters (Endf/B7.O, Jeff-3, etc.) was based on the SAMMY analysis of Oak Ridge National Laboratory neutron transmission, scattering cross section and capture cross section measurements by C.M. Perey et al. The present results were obtained by adding to the SAMMY experimental database the capture cross sections measured recently at the Oak Ridge Linear Electron Accelerator by Guber et al. and the Geel Electron Linear Accelerator and very high-resolution neutron transmission measurements performed by Brusegan et al. A complete resonance parameter covariance matrix (RPCM) was obtained from the SAMMY analysis of the experimental database. The data sets were made consistent, when needed, by adjusting the neutron energy scales, the normalization coefficients, and the background corrections. The RPCM allows the calculation of the cross section uncertainties due mainly to statistical errors in the experimental ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The objective of this work is to study greenhouse gas emissions and sinks and their greenhouse impact as a function of time. The greenhouse impact is expressed in terms of global average radiative forcing, which measures the perturbation in the Earth`s radiation budget. Radiative forcing is calculated on the basis of the concentration changes of the greenhouse gases and the radiation absorption properties of the gases. It takes into account the relatively slow changes in the concentrations due to natural removal and transformation processes and also allows a comparison of the impact of various greenhouse gases and their possible control options as a function of time. In addition to the applications mentioned above, the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission histories of Nordic countries have been estimated, and the radiative forcing caused by them has been calculated with REFUGE. The dynamic impact of aerosol emissions both from the global point of view and in the context of different ...

Science.gov (United States)

... 4 Joint Committee on Atomic Energy as a Model . . . . . ... Joint Committee on Atomic Energy as a Model ...

Wastenet

Institutional and organizational models ... Review individual centre institutional and organizational models in the light of the tasks to be performed by

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

In this thesis, increased hemicellulose retention during kraft pulping has been studied. The work has been divided into three parts: i) Development of an accessible and reliable method for determination of carbohydrate composition of kraft pulps ii) Investigation of the composition and molecular mass distributions of the carbohydrates in kraft pulps with increased hemicellulose content iii) Investigation of the effect of increased hemicellulose content on the sheet properties of kraft pulps with increased hemicellulose content. A method for carbohydrate determination was developed. In this method, enzymes are used to hydrolyse the pulp into monosaccharides. A relatively mild acid hydrolysis is performed prior to detection on an HPLC with an RI-detector. The pulp is not derivatized and no pre-treatment (mechanical or chemical) is needed to determine the carbohydrate composition using the method developed here. Peak deconvolution software is used to improve the accuracy. Polysulphide and ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A previously studied theory of gravitation in flat space-time is applied to homogeneous and isotropic cosmological models. There exist two different classes of models without singularities: (i) ever-expanding models, (ii) oscillating models. The first class contains models with hot big bang. For these models there exist at the beginning of the universe-in contrast to Einstein's theory-very high but finite densities of matter and radiation with a big bang of very short duration. After short time these models pass into the homogeneous and isotropic models of Einstein's theory with spatial curvature equal to zero and cosmological constant ALPHA >= O.

Science.gov (United States)

terms of 11) numerical models, 2D SPH simulations, and analytic models. The 1D model was useful for determining the evolution over very long timescales. ...

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Models can be useful at many different levels when considering complex issues such as biological control of mosquitoes. At an early stage, exploratory models are valuable in exploring the characteristics...Full Text Available

Science.gov (United States)

Engine model: An engine and governor model adapted from a heavy lift helicopter simulation provides a restistic time delay between aerodynamic rotor ...

British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

Abstract Over the last 7 years, the AIMTech Research Group in the University of Leeds has used cultural-historical activity theory (CHAT) to inform a range of research activities in the fields of information behavior and information systems. In this article, we identify certain openings and theoretical challenges in the field of information behavior, which sparked our initial interest in CHAT: context, technology, and the link between practice and policy. We demonstrate the relevance of CHAT in studying information behavior and addressing the identified openings and argue that by providing a framework and hierarchy of activity-action-operation and semantic tools, CHAT is able to overcome many of the uncertainties concerning information behavior research. In particular, CHAT provides resear...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The purpose of this project was to compile a bibliography of references containing environmental transuranic radionuclide data. The authors intent was to identify those parameters affecting transuranic radionuclide transport that may be generic and those that may be dependent on chemical form and/or environmental conditions. An understanding of the unique characteristics and similarities between source terms and environmental conditions relative to transuranic radionuclide transport and cycling will provide the ability to assess and predict the long term impact on man and the environment. An additional goal of the literature review, was to extract the ranges of environmental transuranic radionuclide data from the identified references for inclusion in a data base. Related to source term, these ranges of data can be used to calculate the dose to man from the radionuclides, and to perform uncertainty analyses on these dose assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

The long-lived nuclides of the americium curium elements are of interest for their use in certain safeguard applications and for nuclear reactor burnup studies in waste management. Recommended values are presented for /sup 241,242m,243/Am, and for /sup 242,243,244,245,246,247,248,250/Cm. These values result from a consistent evaluation of all these half-lives. These preliminary estimates were presented earlier. The uncertainties are provided at the 95% confidence limit for each of the recommended values. It will be noted that many of the recommended errors considerably exceed errors quoted by individual authors in their publication, by up to an order of magnitude, e.g., the total half-life of /sup 242,246,248/Cm and the spontaneous fission half-life of /sup 244/Cm. 65 refs., 18 tabs.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

There is now a scientific consensus that current rates of accumulation of greenhouses gases in the atmosphere will result in significant global warming and climate change. These changes are likely to have important impacts on a wide range of human activities and the natural environment. There has now been a considerable weight of literature published on the impacts of global warming, much of it very recent. This report seeks to summarise the important results, to analyse the uncertainties and to make a preliminary analysis of the feasibility of monetarising these environmental costs. The impacts of global warming are divided into ten major categories: agriculture, forests and forestry, terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity, hydrology and water resources, sea level rise and coastal zones, energy, infrastructure/transport/industry, human health and air quality, oceans, and cryospheric impacts. The results of major summary reports are analysed, notably the report of ...

CERN Document Server

Associated production of a baryonic Z' boson with the W boson can account for the excess in Wjj production observed by the CDF collaboration at the Tevatron. We analyze other possible channels of this Z' at the Tevatron and at the LHC, including \\gamma Z' and Z Z' with the Z' -> jj. We show that the chances of confirming this baryonic Z' is better at the Tevatron than at the LHC because of the faster growing backgrounds at the LHC. Unfortunately the current systematic uncertainties of the order of 10% cannot yield any significant excess in both \\gamma Z' and Z Z' channels at the Tevatron and also at the LHC. Nevertheless the search using the b\\bar b decay mode of Z' is much more feasible at the LHC, provided that the branching ratio B(Z' -> b\\bar b) > 0.1. In particular, the W Z' -> l \

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

In the universe there are two different kinds of uncertain phenomena: stochastic and fuzzy or vague. Both uncertain phenomena have been found in structural problems. Therefore, rational decisions concerning the design of marine structures cannot be made without resorting to the methods which can take the uncertainties into account. The fundamental concept of structural fuzzy reliability problems and the methods to give the fuzzy solution are introduced in the paper. Based on the principle of fuzzy decision-making the method to obtain the crisp solution of structural fuzzy reliability analysis is proposed by means of the Bound Search method. Illustrative numerical examples, ship bottom plates under slamming impact pressures are solved. The influence of variation of allowable tolerances in the fuzzy reliability indexes is discussed.

Science.gov (United States)

In this paper Particle Bed Reactor (PBR) designs are discussed which use /sup 233/U and /sup 242m/Am as fissile materials. A constant total power of 100MW is assumed for all reactors in this study. Three broad aspects of these reactors is discussed. First, possible reactor designs are developed, second physics calculations are outlined and discussed and third mass estimates of the various candidates reactors are made. It is concluded that reactors with a specific mass of 1 kg/MW can be envisioned of /sup 233/U is used and approximately a quarter of this value can be achieved if /sup 242m/Am is used. If this power level is increased by increasing the power density lower specific mass values are achievable. The limit will be determined by uncertainties in the thermal-hydraulic analysis. 5 refs., 5 figs., 6 tabs.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A comprehensive assessment on the eligibility of reduced activation (RA) steels as structural chamber material in Inertial Fusion Energy thick-liquid concepts is performed. As far as alloying elements, it is shown that the activation of tungsten is a question to discuss. Regarding impurity elements, it is analyzed if they could question the possibility of obtaining real RA steels for shallow land burial (SLB). The effect of the thickness of the liquid wall on the SLB response of alloying and impurity elements is computed. It seems that a reasonable liquid thickness of about 80 cm is allowable to obtain SLB acceptability of real RA steels. And above all, we have estimated the impact of cross section uncertainties when addressing the former questions, and we identify those to be improved. The necessary improvement of some tungsten and niobium cross sections is justified. (authors)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The scope of this RA is limited to the evaluation of potential human health risks associated with a failure event of a tank containing Basin F liquid. Section 1.0 contains an introduction to the health risk assessment. Section 2.0 describes the site history, location, and land use. Section 3.0 provides a brief description of exposure pathways and potention receptors. Section 4.0 describes the sources of data used and identifies chemicals of concern. Section 5.0 discusses the toxicity of concern. Section 6.0 explains the methods used for calculation of carcinogenic risks and the noncarcinogenic hazard indexes. Section 7.0 describes uncertainties inherent in the current methodology used to determine potential human health risks. Section 8.0 presents a summary of results and conclusions. Section 9.0 includes the references cited.

CERN Document Server

In this paper it is shown that a measurement of the relative luminosity changes at the LHC may be obtained by analysing the currents drawn from the high voltage power supplies of the electromagnetic section of the forward calorimeter of the ATLAS detector. The method was verified with a reproduction of a small section of the ATLAS forward calorimeter using proton beams of known beam energies and variable intensities at the U-70 accelerator at IHEP in Protvino, Russia. The experimental setup and the data taking during a test beam run in April 2008 are described in detail. A comparison of the measured high voltage currents with reference measurements from beam intensity monitors shows a linear dependence on the beam intensity. The non-linearities are measured to be less than 0.5 % combining statistical and systematic uncertainties.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The neutron elastic magnetic form factor G{sub M}{sup n} has been extracted from quasielastic scattering from deuterium in the CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer, CLAS [B. Mecking et al., Nucl. Inst. and Meth. A 503 (2003) 513]. The kinematic coverage of the measurement is continuous over a broad range, extending from below 1 GeV{sup 2} to nearly 5 GeV{sup 2} in four-momentum transfer squared. High precision is achieved by employing a ratio technique in which most uncertainties cancel, and by a simultaneous in-situ calibration of the neutron detection efficiency, the largest correction to the data. Preliminary results are shown with statistical errors only.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A new method of determining the nuclear level density is presented. This method is based on the statistical analysis of the partial width fluctuations appearing in an excitation function of the radiative proton capture. The method was applied in the case of the /sup 88/Sr(p,..gamma..sub(..omega..))/sup 89/Y and /sup 89/Y(p,..gamma..sub(..omega..))/sup 90/Zr reactions. The density of levels with spin I/sup -/ in /sup 90/Zr and the densities of levels with spins 1/2/sup +/ and 3/2/sup +/ in /sup 89/Y at excitation energies from 10.9 to 11.6 MeV and from 9.3 to 10.8 MeV respectively, were determined with an uncertainty of about 35%.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

We perform an optimal-observable analysis of the final charged-lepton/b-quark momentum distributions in #gamma##gamma##->#t t-bar #->#lX/bX for various beam polarizations in order to study possible anomalous t t-bar #gamma#, tbW and #gamma##gamma#H couplings, which could be generated by SU(2) x U(1) gauge-invariant dimension-6 effective operators. We find optimal beam polarizations that will minimize the uncertainty in determination of those non-standard couplings. We also compare e e-bar and #gamma##gamma# colliders from the viewpoint of the anomalous-top-quark-coupling determination.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The neutron-induced fission cross-section of {sup 233}U has been measured at the CERN n-TOF facility relative to the standard fission cross-section of {sup 235}U between 0.5 and 20MeV. The experiment was performed with a fast ionization chamber for the detection of the fission fragments and to discriminate against {alpha} -particles from the natural radioactivity of the samples. The high instantaneous flux and the low background of the n-TOF facility result in data with uncertainties of {approx} 3%, which were found in good agreement with previous experiments. The high quality of the present results allows to improve the evaluation of the {sup 233}U (n,f) cross-section and, consequently, the design of energy systems based on the Th/U cycle. (orig.)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

During the 1990's, natural gas was the energy source with the fastest rate of growth in the world energy balance. Nevertheless, recent evolutions of the energy context, in particular in terms of prices, have had a rather strong impact on the progress of the different energy sources penalizing gas a little. Beyond this competition between energies, which may increase, the medium-term perspectives of natural gas development is in keeping with an environment full of uncertainties. This article presents: the world supply and demand prospects for 2010-2015 (impact of high gas prices on other energy sources, occurrence of production constraints, political decisions of producing countries and world gas industry balance), trends on main markets (North America, Europe, Asia-Oceania), and international trade. (J.S.)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The high-frequency data from 12 sensors at the ITCE 1976 are analyzed to determine the Kolmogoroff constants for velocity, temperature and humidity fluctuations, ..cap alpha../sub u/, ..cap alpha../sub T/, and ..cap alpha../sub q/. The occurrence of aliasing in the spectral analysis in some cases together with the limited response of some sensors at the higher frequencies introduces some uncertainties into the analysis. The Soviet sonic anemometer, fine-wire thermometer and infrared hygrometer and the Australian infrared hygrometer provide the best information, namely that: ..cap alpha../sub u/ = 0.59 +/- 0.01, ..cap alpha../sub T/ = 0.68 +/- 0.02, ..cap alpha../sub q/ = 0.76 +/- 0.03, where the errors quoted refer solely to statistical errors. The other instruments provide general support to these values. The technique of using spectral density measurements to determine eddy fluxes is illustrated.

Science.gov (United States)

In this work, the half-life of the {sup 155}Sm beta{sup -} decay was determined using enriched {sup 154}Sm samples submitted to irradiation in the IEA-R1 reactor of IPEN; the activity of the samples were followed for 4-5 consecutive half lives using a 198 cm{sup 3} HPGe detector. The data was corrected using a non paralizable dead time correction and fitted to an exponential decay function using a non linear fitting procedure developed on the MatLab platform. The resulting value--T{sub 1/2} = 22.180(26) min--was compatible to the one found in the literature, with a lower uncertainty.

British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

Using an efficient criterion in selection of fuzzy conditional attributes (i.e. expanded attributes) is important for generation of fuzzy decision trees. Given a fuzzy information system (FIS), fuzzy conditional attributes play a crucial role in fuzzy decision making. Besides, different fuzzy conditional attributes have different influences on decision making, and some of them may be more important than the others. Two well-known criteria employed to select expanded attributes are fuzzy classification entropy and classification ambiguity, both of which essentially use the ratio of uncertainty to measure the significance of fuzzy conditional attributes. Based on fuzzy-rough technique, this paper proposes a new criterion, in which expanded attributes are selected by using significance of fuz...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Neutron radiography systems are being used for real-time visualization of the dynamic behavior as well as time-averaged measurements of spatial vapor fraction distributions for two phase fluids. The data in the form of video images are typically recorded on videotape at 30 frames per second. Image analysis of he video pictures is used to extract time-dependent or time-averaged data. The determination of the average vapor fraction requires averaging of the logarithm of time-dependent intensity measurements of the neutron beam (gray scale distribution of the image) that passes through the fluid. This could be significantly different than averaging the intensity of the transmitted beam and then taking the logarithm of that term. This difference is termed the dynamic error (error in the time-averaged vapor fractions due to the inherent time-dependence of the measured data) and is separate from the static error (statistical sampling uncertainty). Detailed analyses of ...

Science.gov (United States)

The economic benefits of supplemental fuel injections depend, in part, on the coke replacement ratio. An assessment of the accuracy with which blast furnace coke rate may be measured and a determination of the key drivers of coke rate uncertainty are offered, to provide guidance for experiments in high-rate gas injection. Using statistical analysis tools, an expression for the measurement error associated with the various terms of blast furnace carbon balance is developed. Coke rate calculations based on the material balance are most sensitive to coke carbon content and to proper tracking of hot metal tapping schedule.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Realization of the scale of spectral responsivity of the detectors in the Directorate of Measures and Precious Metals (DMDM) is based on silicon detectors traceable to LNE-INM. In order to realize the unit of spectral irradiance in the laboratory for photometry and radiometry of the Bureau of Measures and Precious Metals, the new method based on the calibration of the spectroradiometer by comparison with standard detector has been established. The development of the method included realization of the System of Spectral Comparisons (SSC), together with the detector spectral responsivity calibrations by means of a primary spectrophotometric system. The linearity testing and stray light analysis were preformed to characterize the spectroradiometer. Measurement of aperture diameter and calibration of transimpedance amplifier were part of the overall experiment. In this paper, the developed method is presented and measurement results with the associated measurement ...

British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

Summary The steadily growing epidemic of diabetes mellitus poses a threat for global tuberculosis (TB) control. Previous studies have identified an important association between diabetes mellitus and TB. However, these studies have limitations: very few were carried out in low-income countries, with none in Africa, raising uncertainty about the strength of the diabetes mellitus-TB association in these settings, and many critical questions remain unanswered. An expert meeting was held in November 2009 to discuss where there was sufficient evidence to make firm recommendations about joint management of both diseases, to address research gaps and to develop a research agenda. Ten key research questions were identified, of which 4 were selected as high priority: (i) whether, when and how to sc...