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Sample records for pandemic swine-origin influenza

  1. Immunity to Pre-1950 H1N1 Influenza Viruses Confers Cross-Protection against the Pandemic Swine-Origin 2009 A (H1N1) Influenza Virus

    Skountzou, Ioanna; Koutsonanos, Dimitrios G.; Kim, Jin Hyang; Powers, Ryan; Satyabhama, Lakshmipriyadarshini; Masseoud, Feda; Weldon, William C.; Martin, Maria del Pilar; Mittler, Robert S.; Compans, Richard; Jacob, Joshy

    2010-01-01

    The 2009 H1N1 influenza virus outbreak is the first pandemic of the twenty-first century. Epidemiological data reveal that of all the people afflicted with H1N1 virus, 60 y old have pre-existing neutralizing Abs against the 2009 H1N1 virus. This finding suggests that influenza strains that circulated 50–60 y ago might provide cross-protection against the swine-origin 2009 H1N1 influenza virus. To test this, we determined the ability of representative H1N1 influenza viruses that circulated in ...

  2. Variant (Swine Origin) Influenza Viruses in Humans

    ... Past Newsletters Variant (Swine Origin) Influenza Viruses in Humans Language: English Español Recommend on Facebook Tweet ... Page Background Reporting Additional Information Key Facts about Human Infections with Variant Viruses (Swine Origin Influenza Viruses ...

  3. The resurgence of swine-origin influenza A (H1N1).

    Mossad, Sherif Beniameen

    2009-06-01

    Unexpectedly, swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus (S-OIV, informally known as swine flu) appeared in North America at the very end of the 2008-2009 influenza season and began to spread internationally. As the world mobilizes for a potential pandemic, this article summarizes the developments in diagnosis, treatment, and prevention. PMID:19487554

  4. A Set of Novel Monoclonal Antibodies Against Swine-Origin Pandemic H1N1 Differentiate Swine H1N1 and Human Seasonal H1N1

    In April 2009, a novel H1N1 influenza virus (S-OIV) emerged in North America and caused the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century. The new pandemic strain is a triple reassortant influenza virus of swine origin containing genes from avian, swine and human influenza viruses. It is genetically ...

  5. Characterization of an Artificial Swine-Origin Influenza Virus with the Same Gene Combination as H1N1/2009 Virus: A Genesis Clue of Pandemic Strain

    Zhao, Xueli; Sun, Yipeng; Pu, Juan; Fan, Lihong; Shi, Weimin; Hu, Yanxin; Yang, Jun; Xu, Qi; Wang, Jingjing; Hou, Dongjun; Ma, Guangpeng; Liu, Jinhua

    2011-01-01

    Pandemic H1N1/2009 influenza virus, derived from a reassortment of avian, human, and swine influenza viruses, possesses a unique gene segment combination that had not been detected previously in animal and human populations. Whether such a gene combination could result in the pathogenicity and transmission as H1N1/2009 virus remains unclear. In the present study, we used reverse genetics to construct a reassortant virus (rH1N1) with the same gene combination as H1N1/2009 virus (NA and M genes...

  6. Swine-origin influenza-virus-induced acute lung injury:Novel or classical pathogenesis?

    Naoyoshi; Maeda; Toshimitsu; Uede

    2010-01-01

    Influenza viruses are common respiratory pathogens in humans and can cause serious infection that leads to the development of pneumonia.Due to their hostrange diversity,genetic and antigenic diversity,and potential to reassort genetically in vivo,influenza A viruses are continual sources of novel influenza strains that lead to the emergence of periodic epidemics and outbreaks in humans.Thus,newly emerging viral diseases are always major threats to public health.In March 2009,a novel influenza virus suddenly emerged and caused a worldwide pandemic.The novel pandemic influenza virus was genetically and antigenically distinct from previous seasonal human influenza A/H1N1 viruses;it was identified to have originated from pigs,and further genetic analysis revealed it as a subtype of A/H1N1,thus later called a swine-origin influenza virus A/H1N1.Since the novel virus emerged,epidemiological surveys and research on experimental animal models have been conducted,and characteristics of the novel influenza virus have been determined but the exact mechanisms of pulmonary pathogenesis remain to be elucidated.In this editorial,we summa-rize and discuss the recent pandemic caused by the novel swine-origin influenza virus A/H1N1 with a focus on the mechanism of pathogenesis to obtain an insight into potential therapeutic strategies.

  7. It is not just AIV: From avian to swine-origin influenza virus

    GAO George F; SUN YePing

    2010-01-01

    @@ In March and early April 2009, a new swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus (S-OIV) emerged in Mexico and the United States.The virus spreads worldwide by human-to-human transmission.Within a few weeks, it reached a pandemic level.The virus is a novel reassorment virus.It contains gene fragments of influenza virus of swine, avian and human emerged from a triple reassortant virus circulating in North American swine.The source triple-reassortant itself comprised genes derived from avian (PB2 and PA), human H3N2 (PB1) and classical swine (HA, NP and NS) lineages.In contrast, the NA and M gene segments have their origin in the Eurasian avian-like swine H1N1 lineage (Figure 1).

  8. Pandemic Influenza Planning, United States, 1978–2008

    Iskander, John; Strikas, Raymond A.; Gensheimer, Kathleen F.; Cox, Nancy J.; Redd, Stephen C.

    2013-01-01

    During the past century, 4 influenza pandemics occurred. After the emergence of a novel influenza virus of swine origin in 1976, national, state, and local US public health authorities began planning efforts to respond to future pandemics. Several events have since stimulated progress in public health emergency planning: the 1997 avian influenza A(H5N1) outbreak in Hong Kong, China; the 2001 anthrax attacks in the United States; the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome; and the ...

  9. National Pandemic Influenza Plan

    Department of Health

    2007-01-01

    National Pandemic Influenza Plan The purpose of this document is to tell you about pandemic influenza (flu), to explain what the Government and the health services are doing to prepare for a possible pandemic and most importantly, to advise you what you need to do if there is a pandemic. Click here to download PDF 614kb

  10. Pandemic influenza: certain uncertainties

    Morens, David M.; Taubenberger, Jeffery K.

    2011-01-01

    For at least five centuries, major epidemics and pandemics of influenza have occurred unexpectedly and at irregular intervals. Despite the modern notion that pandemic influenza is a distinct phenomenon obeying such constant (if incompletely understood) rules such as dramatic genetic change, cyclicity, “wave” patterning, virus replacement, and predictable epidemic behavior, much evidence suggests the opposite. Although there is much that we know about pandemic influenza, there appears to be mu...

  11. Vaccines for Pandemic Influenza

    Luke, Catherine J.; Subbarao, Kanta

    2006-01-01

    Recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Asia and associated human infections have led to a heightened level of awareness and preparation for a possible influenza pandemic. Vaccination is the best option by which spread of a pandemic virus could be prevented and severity of disease reduced. Production of live attenuated and inactivated vaccine seed viruses against avian influenza viruses, which have the potential to cause pandemics, and their testing in preclinical studies and...

  12. Safety and efficacy of a novel live attenuated influenza vaccine against pandemic H1N1 in swine

    On June 11, 2009 the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the outbreaks caused by novel swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus had reached pandemic proportions. The pandemic H1N1 (H1N1pdm) is the predominant influenza strain in the human population. It has also crossed the species barriers a...

  13. Influenza: Epidemics and Pandemics

    Markovski, Velo

    2013-01-01

    Influenza is a viral, pandemic and respiratory disease with high morbidity particular and significant mortality rate amongst humans. WHO has counted that each outbreak of epidemic is costing between 10-60 million dollars to one million citizens and each year there are between 250.000 to 500.000 deaths caused by flu. Eight RNA segments of influenza A and B viruses and seven segments of the C viruses are independently encapsulated by viral nucleoprotein. The heamagglutinin is the most important...

  14. Influenza pandemics and avian flu

    2005-01-01

    Douglas Fleming is general practitioner in a large suburban practice in Birmingham. In this article he seeks to clarify clinical issues relating to potential pandemics of influenza, including avian influenza

  15. CT manifestations of patients with swine-origin influenza A H1N1

    Objective: To explore the manifestations of chest multi-slice spiral CT in patients with initial infection of swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus (S-OIV). Methods: The chest multi-slices spirals CT images of 19 firstly diagnosed patients with swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) in our institution were retrospectively studied. CT manifestations were evaluated by three experienced radiologists. Location, appearance of lung abnormalities, abnormal distribution, pleural effusion and others (pericadiaum, lymphadenopathy and pleural thickening) were observed and quantitatively analyzed. The correlation of ground-glass and consolidation CT scores with the fever time was studied. Results: The abnormal CT findings were observed bilaterally in 18 of 19 subjects including ground-glass (n=3), consolidation (n=3), consolidation accompanied with ground-glass (n=12). Most of these lesions were distributed diffusively (n=14) while the others located in the middle and low lobes (n=4). Unilateral (n=3) or bilateral (n=2) pleural effusion were observed. Lymphadenopathy (n=2), effusion of pericadium (n=1), pleural thickening (n=1) and cardiac enlargement (n=2) were also found in patients with H1N1. CT scores of ground-glass were 4.25 (n=2), 3.75 (n=1), 2.25 (n=1), 1.75 (n=1), 1.00 (n=6), 0.75 (n=2), 0.50 (n=2), 0 (n=4). CT scores of consolidation were 4.25 (n=1), 4.00 (n=1), 3.75 (n=1), 2.75 (n=1), 1.25 (n=3), 1.00 (n=2), 0.75 (n=2), 0.50 (n=1), 0.25 (n=3), 0 (n=4). CT scores of ground-glass were significantly correlated with the fever time (r=0.776, P0.01). Conclusions: The most common CT findings in patients with S-OIV infection are diffuse distribution of bilateral ground-glass opacities with or without associated focal or multifocal areas of consolidation. The increasing of ground-glass's range could be the marker of progression of H1N1 pulmonary infection at initial stage. (authors)

  16. Toward a Method for Tracking Virus Evolutionary Trajectory Applied to the Pandemic H1N1 2009 Influenza Virus

    Squires, R Burke; Pickett, Brett E.; Das, Sajal; Scheuermann, Richard H

    2014-01-01

    In 2009 a novel pandemic H1N1 influenza virus (H1N1pdm09) emerged as the first official influenza pandemic of the 21st century. Early genomic sequence analysis pointed to the swine origin of the virus. Here we report a novel computational approach to determine the evolutionary trajectory of viral sequences that uses data-driven estimations of nucleotide substitution rates to track the gradual accumulation of observed sequence alterations over time. Phylogenetic analysis and multiple sequence ...

  17. Pre-existing immunity against swine-origin H1N1 influenza viruses in the general human population

    Greenbaum, Jason A.; Kotturi, Maya F; Kim, Yohan; Oseroff, Carla; Vaughan, Kerrie; Salimi, Nima; Vita, Randi; Ponomarenko, Julia; Richard H. Scheuermann; Sette, Alessandro; Peters, Bjoern

    2009-01-01

    A major concern about the ongoing swine-origin H1N1 influenza virus (S-OIV) outbreak is that the virus may be so different from seasonal H1N1 that little immune protection exists in the human population. In this study, we examined the molecular basis for pre-existing immunity against S-OIV, namely the recognition of viral immune epitopes by T cells or B cells/antibodies that have been previously primed by circulating influenza strains. Using data from the Immune Epitope Database, we found tha...

  18. Pandemic influenza planning, United States, 1978-2008.

    Iskander, John; Strikas, Raymond A; Gensheimer, Kathleen F; Cox, Nancy J; Redd, Stephen C

    2013-06-01

    During the past century, 4 influenza pandemics occurred. After the emergence of a novel influenza virus of swine origin in 1976, national, state, and local US public health authorities began planning efforts to respond to future pandemics. Several events have since stimulated progress in public health emergency planning: the 1997 avian influenza A(H5N1) outbreak in Hong Kong, China; the 2001 anthrax attacks in the United States; the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome; and the 2003 reemergence of influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in humans. We outline the evolution of US pandemic planning since the late 1970s, summarize planning accomplishments, and explain their ongoing importance. The public health community's response to the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic demonstrated the value of planning and provided insights into improving future plans and response efforts. Preparedness planning will enhance the collective, multilevel response to future public health crises. PMID:23731839

  19. Emergence of a novel swine-origin influenza A virus (S-OIV) H1N1 virus in humans

    Peiris, JS Malik; Poon, Leo LM; Guan, Yi

    2016-01-01

    A recently emerged novel influenza A H1N1 virus continues to spread globally. The virus contains a novel constellation of gene segments, the nearest known precursors being viruses found in swine and it likely arose through reassortment of two or more viruses of swine origin. H1N1, H1N2 and H3N2 subtype swine influenza viruses have occasionally infected humans before but such zoonotic transmission-events did not lead to sustained human-to-human transmission in the manner this swine-origin influenza virus (S-OIV) has done. Its transmission among humans appears to be higher than that observed with seasonal influenza. Children and young adults appear to those most affected and also those who appear to maintain transmission. Clinical disease generally appears mild but complications leading to hospitalization can occur, especially in those with underlying lung or cardiac disease, diabetes or those on immunosuppresive therapies. There are concerns that the virus may reassort with existing human influenza virus giving rise to more transmissible or more pathogenic viruses. The virus appears to retain the potential to transmit back to swine and thus continued reassortment with swine viruses is a cause for concern. PMID:19540800

  20. The evolutionary emergence of pandemic influenza

    Day, Troy; André, Jean-Baptiste; Park, Andrew

    2006-01-01

    Pandemic influenza remains a serious public health threat and the processes involved in the evolutionary emergence of pandemic influenza strains remain incompletely understood. Here, we develop a stochastic model for the evolutionary emergence of pandemic influenza, and use it to address three main questions. (i) What is the minimum annual number of avian influenza virus infections required in humans to explain the historical rate of pandemic emergence? (ii) Are such avian influenza infection...

  1. Rapid Semiautomated Subtyping of Influenza Virus Species during the 2009 Swine Origin Influenza A H1N1 Virus Epidemic in Milwaukee, Wisconsin▿

    Bose, Michael E; Beck, Eric T.; Ledeboer, Nate; Kehl, Sue C.; Jurgens, Lisa A.; Patitucci, Teresa; Witt, Lorraine; LaGue, Elizabeth; Darga, Patrick; He, Jie; Fan, Jiang; Kumar, Swati; Kelly J. Henrickson

    2009-01-01

    In the spring of 2009, a novel influenza A (H1N1) virus (swine origin influenza virus [S-OIV]) emerged and began causing a large outbreak of illness in Milwaukee, WI. Our group at the Midwest Respiratory Virus Program laboratory developed a semiautomated real-time multiplex reverse transcription-PCR assay (Seasonal), employing the NucliSENS easyMAG system (bioMérieux, Durham, NC) and a Raider thermocycler (HandyLab Inc., Ann Arbor, MI), that typed influenza A virus, influenza B virus, and res...

  2. Molecular epidemiology of novel swine origin influenza virus (S-OIV from Gwalior, India, 2009

    Shukla Jyoti

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The H1N1pandemic virus is a newly emergent human influenza A virus that is closely related to a number of currently circulating pig viruses in the 'classic North American' and 'Eurasian' swine influenza virus lineages and thus referred as S-OIV. Since the first reports of the virus in humans in April 2009, H1N1 virus has spread to 168 countries and overseas territories. India also witnessed severe H1N1 pandemic virus epidemic with considerable morbidity and mortality in different parts starting from May 2009. Findings The suspected swine flu outbreak from Gwalior India during October- December 2009 was confirmed through S-OIV HA gene specific RT-LAMP and real time RT-PCR. Positive samples through CDC real time and Lamp assay were further processed for isolation of the virus. Full HA gene sequencing of the H1N1 isolates of Gwalior, India revealed 99% homology with California and other circulating novel swine flu viruses. Three major changes were observed at nucleotide level, while two major amino acid shifts were observed at the position C9W and I30M corresponding to the ORF with prototype strain. The HA gene sequence phylogeny revealed the circulation of two genetically distinct lineages belonging to Clade VII and Clade I of S-OIV. Conclusions Our findings also supported the earlier report about circulation of mixed genogroups of S-OIV in India. Therefore continuous monitoring of the genetic makeup of this newly emergent virus is essential to understand its evolution within the country.

  3. Pandemic influenza planning by videoconference.

    Kimball, Ann Marie; Arima, Yuzo; French, H Matthew; Osaki, Carl S; Hoff, Rodney; Lee, Soo-Sim; Schafer, Lisa; Nabae, Koji; Chen, Chang-Hsun; Hsun, Chang; Hishamuddin, Pengiran; Nelson, Rodney; Woody, Karalee; Brown, Jacqueline; Fox, Louis

    2009-01-01

    Collaboration between nations and sectors is crucial to improve regional preparedness against pandemic influenza. In 2008, a Virtual Symposium was organized in the Asia-Pacific region by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Emerging Infections Network (APEC EINet) to discuss pandemic preparedness. The multipoint videoconference lasted approximately 4.5 hours and was attended by 16 APEC members who shared best practices in public-private partnerships for pandemic influenza preparedness planning. Twelve of the 16 APEC members who participated responded to a post-event survey. The overall experience of the event was rated highly. Partnering public health, technology and business communities to discuss best practices in preparedness using videoconferencing may be an effective way to improve regional preparedness. Utilization of videoconferencing on a routine basis should be considered to improve preparedness among APEC members and enhance its usability during a pandemic. PMID:19815907

  4. Human vs. animal outbreaks of the 2009 swine-origin H1N1 influenza A epidemic.

    Scotch, Matthew; Brownstein, John S; Vegso, Sally; Galusha, Deron; Rabinowitz, Peter

    2011-09-01

    The majority of emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic in origin, including recently emerging influenza viruses such as the 2009 swine-origin H1N1 influenza A epidemic. The epidemic that year affected both human and animal populations as it spread globally. In fact, before the end of 2009, 14 different countries reported H1N1 infected swine. In order to better understand the zoonotic nature of the epidemic and the relationship between human and animal disease surveillance data streams, we compared 2009 reports of H1N1 infection to define the temporal relationship between reported cases in animals and humans. Generally, human cases preceded animal cases at a country-level, supporting the potential of H1N1 infection to be a "reverse zoonosis", and the value of integrating human and animal disease report data. PMID:21912985

  5. Pandemic Influenza Vaccines – The Challenges

    Rebecca Cox

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent years’ enzootic spread of highly pathogenic H5N1 virus among poultry and the many lethal zoonoses in its wake has stimulated basic and applied pandemic vaccine research. The quest for an efficacious, affordable and timely accessible pandemic vaccine has been high on the agenda. When a variant H1N1 strain of swine origin emerged as a pandemic virus, it surprised many, as this subtype is well-known to man as a seasonal virus. This review will cover some difficult vaccine questions, such as the immunological challenges, the new production platforms, and the limited supply and global equity issues.

  6. Seasonal influenza: Waiting for the next pandemic

    Angela Clem

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available With the ongoing cases of H1N1 influenza (aka Swine Flu occurring around the globe, seasonal influenza has a tendency to be overlooked by the media and general population as a source of illness and death. Yet, these pandemic influenza viruses arise from these seasonal influenza viruses. This article will provide an overview of seasonal influenza, its prevention and treatment, and the global surveillance system in place, used to detect the next influenza pandemic.

  7. Seasonal Influenza: Waiting for the Next Pandemic

    Angela Clem; Sagar Galwankar

    2009-01-01

    With the ongoing cases of H1N1 influenza (aka Swine Flu) occurring around the globe, seasonal influenza has a tendency to be overlooked by the media and general population as a source of illness and death. Yet, these pandemic influenza viruses arise from these seasonal influenza viruses. This article will provide an overview of seasonal influenza, its prevention and treatment, and the global surveillance system in place, used to detect the next influenza pandemic.

  8. In silico characterization of the functional and structural modules of the hemagglutinin protein from the swine-origin influenza virus A (H1N1)-2009

    Christopher; VAVRICKA; GAO; George; F

    2010-01-01

    The 2009 swine-origin influenza virus (S-OIV,H1N1 subtype) has developed into a new pandemic influenza as announced by the World Health Organization.In order to uncover clues about the determinants for virulence and pathogenicity of the virus,we characterized the functional modules of the surface glycoprotein hemagglutinin (HA),the most important protein in molecular epidemiology and pathogenesis of influenza viruses.We analyzed receptor binding sites,basic patch,neutralization antibody epitopes and T cell epitopes in the HA protein of the current S-OIV according to the corresponding functional and structural modules previously characterized in other H1 HA molecules or HA molecules of other subtypes.We compared their differences and similarities systematically.Based on the amino acids defined as the functional and structural modules,the HA protein of 2009 S-OIV should specifically bind to the human 2,6-receptor.The D225G/E mutation in HA,which is found in some isolates,may confer dual binding specificity to the 2,3and 2,6-receptor based on previously reported work.This HA variant contains two basic patches,one of which results in increased basicity,suggesting enhanced membrane fusion function.The 2009 S-OIV HA also has an extra glycosylation site at position 276.Four of the five antibody neutralization epitopes identified in A/RP/8/34(H1N1) were exposed,but the other was hidden by a glycosylation site.The previously identified cytotoxic T cell epitopes in various HA molecules were summarized and their corresponding sequences in 2009 S-OIV HA were defined.These results are critical for understanding the pathogenicity of the virus and host immune response against the virus.

  9. Introduction of a Novel Swine-Origin Influenza A (H1N1 Virus into Milwaukee, Wisconsin in 2009

    Swati Kumar

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available On 17 April 2009, novel swine origin influenza A virus (S-OIV cases appeared within the United States. Most influenza A diagnostic assays currently utilized in local clinical laboratories do not allow definitive subtype determination. Detailed subtype analysis of influenza A positive samples in our laboratory allowed early confirmation of a large outbreak of S-OIV in southeastern Wisconsin (SEW. The initial case of S-OIV in SEW was detected on 28 April 2009. All influenza A samples obtained during the 16 week period prior to 28 April 2009, and the first four weeks of the subsequent epidemic were sub typed. Four different multiplex assays were employed, utilizing real time PCR and end point PCR to fully subtype human and animal influenza viral components. Specific detection of S-OIV was developed within days. Data regarding patient demographics and other concurrently circulating viruses were analyzed. During the first four weeks of the epidemic, 679 of 3726 (18.2% adults and children tested for influenza A were identified with S-OIV infection. Thirteen patients (0.34% tested positive for seasonal human subtypes of influenza A during the first two weeks and none in the subsequent 2 weeks of the epidemic. Parainfluenza viruses were the most prevalent seasonal viral agents circulating during the epidemic (of those tested, with detection rates of 12% followed by influenza B and RSV at 1.9% and 0.9% respectively. S-OIV was confirmed on day 2 of instituting subtype testing and within 4 days of report of national cases of S-OIV. Novel surge capacity diagnostic infrastructure exists in many specialty and research laboratories around the world. The capacity for broader influenza A sub typing at the local laboratory level allows timely and accurate detection of novel strains as they emerge in the community, despite the presence of other circulating viruses producing identical illness. This is likely to become increasingly important given the need for

  10. Subsisting H1N1 influenza memory responses are insufficient to protect from pandemic H1N1 influenza challenge in C57BL/6 mice

    Sage, Leo K.; Fox, Julie M.; Tompkins, Stephen M.; Tripp, Ralph A.

    2013-01-01

    The 2009 swine-origin pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza virus transmitted and caused disease in many individuals immune to pre-2009 H1N1 influenza virus. Whilst extensive studies on antibody-mediated pH1N1 cross-reactivity have been described, few studies have focused on influenza-specific memory T-cells. To address this, the immune response in pre-2009 H1N1 influenza-immune mice was evaluated after pH1N1 challenge and disease pathogenesis was determined. The results show that despite homology ...

  11. Pandemic Influenza Pediatric Office Plan Template

    HCTT CHE

    2010-01-01

    This is a planning tool developed by pediatric stakeholders that is intended to assist pediatric medical offices that have no pandemic influenza plan in place, but may experience an increase in patient calls/visits or workload due to pandemic influenza.

  12. Avian influenza: an emerging pandemic threat.

    Jin, Xian Wen; Mossad, Sherif B

    2005-12-01

    While we are facing the threat of an emerging pandemic from the current avian flu outbreak in Asia, we have learned important traits of the virus responsible for the 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic that made it so deadly. By using stockpiled antiviral drugs effectively and developing an effective vaccine, we can be in a better position than ever to mitigate the global impact of an avian influenza pandemic. PMID:16392727

  13. Economic and policy implications of pandemic influenza.

    Smith, Braeton J.; Starks, Shirley J.; Loose, Verne W.; Brown, Theresa Jean; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-03-01

    Pandemic influenza has become a serious global health concern; in response, governments around the world have allocated increasing funds to containment of public health threats from this disease. Pandemic influenza is also recognized to have serious economic implications, causing illness and absence that reduces worker productivity and economic output and, through mortality, robs nations of their most valuable assets - human resources. This paper reports two studies that investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic flu outbreak. Policy makers can use the growing number of economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combat the pandemic influenza outbreaks. Experts recognize that pandemic influenza has serious global economic implications. The illness causes absenteeism, reduced worker productivity, and therefore reduced economic output. This, combined with the associated mortality rate, robs nations of valuable human resources. Policy makers can use economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combat the pandemic influenza outbreaks. In this paper economists examine two studies which investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic influenza outbreak. Resulting policy implications are also discussed. The research uses the Regional Economic Modeling, Inc. (REMI) Policy Insight + Model. This model provides a dynamic, regional, North America Industrial Classification System (NAICS) industry-structured framework for forecasting. It is supported by a population dynamics model that is well-adapted to investigating macro-economic implications of pandemic influenza, including possible demand side effects. The studies reported in this paper exercise all of these capabilities.

  14. Coupling sensitive in vitro and in silico techniques to assess cross-reactive CD4+ T cells against the swine-origin H1N1 influenza virus

    Schanen, Brian C.; De Groot, Anne S.; Moise, L; Ardito, Matt; McClaine, Elizabeth; Martin, William; Wittman, Vaughan; Warren, William L.; Drake, Donald R.

    2011-01-01

    The outbreak of the novel swine-origin H1N1 influenza in the spring of 2009 took epidemiologists, immunologists, and vaccinologists by surprise and galvanized a massive worldwide effort to produce millions of vaccine doses to protect against this single virus strain. Of particular concern was the apparent lack of pre-existing antibody capable of eliciting cross-protective immunity against this novel virus, which fueled fears this strain would trigger a particularly far-reaching and lethal pan...

  15. Chest Radiographic Findings of Novel Swine-Origin Influenza A (H1N1) Virus Infection in Children

    Bae, So Young; Hong, Eun Sook; Paik, Sang Hyun; Park, Seong Jin; Cha, Jang Gyu; Lee, Hae Kyung [Dept. of Radiology, Soonchunhyang University Bucheon Hospital, Bucheon (Korea, Republic of); Jang, Yun Woo [Dept. of Radiology, Soonchunhyang University Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-06-15

    To analyze chest radiographic findings in children infected with laboratory confirmed novel swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus. Three hundred seventy-two out of 2,014 children with laboratory confirmed H1N1 infection and who also underwent a chest radiograph from September to November 2009 were enrolled in this study. Patients were divided into in-patients, out-patients, and patients with co-infections and further subdivided into with underlying disease and without underlying disease as well as age (<2 years old, 2-5 years, 5-10 years, 10-18 years old). The initial radiographs were evaluated for radiographic findings and the anatomic distribution of abnormalities. The initial radiographs were abnormal in 154 (41.39%) patients. The predominant radiographic findings were peribronchial wall opacity found in 85 (22.84%) patients and hyperinflation observed in 69 (18.54%) patients. Further, 75 (71.42%) patients exhibited central predominance and the right lower lung zone was also commonly involved. There were statistically significant differences in the radiological findings between in-patient and out-patient groups. However, there were no significant differences in the radiographic findings between in-patients and the co-infection group with respect the presence of underlying disease and age. Initial radiographs of children with laboratory confirmed H1N1 virus were abnormal in 41.39% of cases. The common radiographic findings included peribronchial opacities, hyperinflation, lower lung zonal distribution, and central predominance

  16. Chest Radiographic Findings of Novel Swine-Origin Influenza A (H1N1) Virus Infection in Children

    To analyze chest radiographic findings in children infected with laboratory confirmed novel swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus. Three hundred seventy-two out of 2,014 children with laboratory confirmed H1N1 infection and who also underwent a chest radiograph from September to November 2009 were enrolled in this study. Patients were divided into in-patients, out-patients, and patients with co-infections and further subdivided into with underlying disease and without underlying disease as well as age (<2 years old, 2-5 years, 5-10 years, 10-18 years old). The initial radiographs were evaluated for radiographic findings and the anatomic distribution of abnormalities. The initial radiographs were abnormal in 154 (41.39%) patients. The predominant radiographic findings were peribronchial wall opacity found in 85 (22.84%) patients and hyperinflation observed in 69 (18.54%) patients. Further, 75 (71.42%) patients exhibited central predominance and the right lower lung zone was also commonly involved. There were statistically significant differences in the radiological findings between in-patient and out-patient groups. However, there were no significant differences in the radiographic findings between in-patients and the co-infection group with respect the presence of underlying disease and age. Initial radiographs of children with laboratory confirmed H1N1 virus were abnormal in 41.39% of cases. The common radiographic findings included peribronchial opacities, hyperinflation, lower lung zonal distribution, and central predominance

  17. Swine-origin influenza A viral (H1N1) infection in children. Chest computed tomography findings

    The aim of this study was to review the chest computed tomography (CT) findings in children with swine-origin influenza (H1N1) virus (S-OIV) infection. The radiologists retrospectively reviewed chest CT findings in 12 children with S-OIV infection and recorded the following findings: ground-glass opacities (GGO), consolidation, nodules, reticular opacities, peribronchial cuffing, and air trapping; distribution; affected lobes. The presence of pleural effusions, pneumomediastinum, pulmonary interstitial emphysema (PIE), and lymphadenopathy was also recorded. Chest CT revealed GGO (67%), consolidation (67%), nodules (25%), peribronchial cuffing (42%), and air trapping (33%). The distribution of the lesions was random (75%), peribronchial (17%), or subpleural (8%). The lobes affected were the lower (92%), upper (58%), and middle (17%) lobes. There were associated pleural effusions (42%), PIE (42%), pneumomediastinum (33%), and lymphadenopathy (75%). Among five patients with air-leak complications, three had a history of allergies and three required the intensive care unit. Chest CT findings in children with S-OIV infection were peribronchial thickening and a mixture of airspace consolidation and GGO with random distribution and lower lobe predominance. Pleural effusion, lymphadenopathy, PIE, and pneumomediastinum may be associated findings. (author)

  18. Pneumonia induced by swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) infection. Chest computed tomography findings in children

    The purpose of this study was to determine the features of chest computed tomography (CT) in children with swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus (S-OIV). The study population consisted of 16 children with laboratory-confirmed S-OIV infection (12 boys, 4 girls), with an age range of 5-10 years (mean 6.3 years). Pneumonia was suspected in these patients based on clinical features or confirmed by radiography. All subjects underwent CT for close evaluation of pneumonia, including characteristics, distribution, extent, and other findings such as pleural effusion, pneumothorax, and pneumomediastinum. The predominant CT finding was consolidation plus ground-grass opacity (GGO) (11/16, 69%). The consolidation-dominant pattern was found in 10 of 16 (66%) patients, and 1 (6%) was GGO-dominant. One (6%) had only GGO. In all, 7 of the 16 patients had segmental or lobar consolidation. Abnormal opacities were primarily distributed in the central lung zone (8/16, 50%) and were multifocal (15/16, 94%). Four showed atelectasis (4/16, 25%). Pneumomediastinum was observed in 4 of 16 (25%). One patient had negative radiographic findings but was positive on CT. Multifocal consolidation with central distribution is a common CT finding in children with S-OIV, but there are few GGO-dominant cases. Widespread consolidation (segmental or lobar) is also common. (author)

  19. Influenza Pandemic Infrastructure Response in Thailand

    2009-03-05

    Influenza viruses change antigenic properties, or drift, every year and they create seasonal outbreaks. Occasionally, influenza viruses change in a major way, called a “shift." If an influenza virus shifts, the entire human population is susceptible to the new influenza virus, creating the potential for a pandemic. On this podcast, CDC's Dr. Scott Dowell discusses responding to an influenza pandemic.  Created: 3/5/2009 by Emerging Infectious Diseases.   Date Released: 3/5/2009.

  20. Rapid semiautomated subtyping of influenza virus species during the 2009 swine origin influenza A H1N1 virus epidemic in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

    Bose, Michael E; Beck, Eric T; Ledeboer, Nate; Kehl, Sue C; Jurgens, Lisa A; Patitucci, Teresa; Witt, Lorraine; LaGue, Elizabeth; Darga, Patrick; He, Jie; Fan, Jiang; Kumar, Swati; Henrickson, Kelly J

    2009-09-01

    In the spring of 2009, a novel influenza A (H1N1) virus (swine origin influenza virus [S-OIV]) emerged and began causing a large outbreak of illness in Milwaukee, WI. Our group at the Midwest Respiratory Virus Program laboratory developed a semiautomated real-time multiplex reverse transcription-PCR assay (Seasonal), employing the NucliSENS easyMAG system (bioMérieux, Durham, NC) and a Raider thermocycler (HandyLab Inc., Ann Arbor, MI), that typed influenza A virus, influenza B virus, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and subtyped influenza A virus into the currently circulating H1 and H3 subtypes, as well as a similar assay that identified H1 of S-OIV. The Seasonal and H1 S-OIV assays demonstrated analytical limits of detection of tissue culture infective doses/ml and 3 to 30 input copies, respectively. Testing of the analytical specificities revealed no cross-reactivity with 41 and 26 different common organisms and demonstrated outstanding reproducibility of results. Clinical testing showed 95% sensitivity for influenza A virus and influenza B virus and 95 and 97% specificity compared to tissue culture. Comparisons of results from other molecular tests showed levels of positive agreement with the Seasonal and H1 S-OIV assay results of 99 and 100% and levels of negative agreement of 98 and 100%. This study has demonstrated the use of a semiautomated system for sensitive, specific, and rapid detection of influenza A virus, influenza B virus, and RSV and subtyping of influenza A virus into human H1 and H3 and S-OIV strains. This assay/system performed well in clinical testing of regular seasonal influenza virus subtypes and was outstanding during the 2009 Milwaukee S-OIV infection outbreak. This recent outbreak of infection with a novel influenza A (H1N1) virus also demonstrates the importance of quickly distributing information on new agents and of having rapid influenza virus subtyping assays widely available for clinical and public health decisions. PMID

  1. Targeted Social Distancing Designs for Pandemic Influenza

    Glass, Robert J.; Glass, Laura M; Walter E. Beyeler; Min, H. Jason

    2006-01-01

    Targeted social distancing to mitigate pandemic influenza can be designed through simulation of influenza's spread within local community social contact networks. We demonstrate this design for a stylized community representative of a small town in the United States. The critical importance of children and teenagers in transmission of influenza is first identified and targeted. For influenza as infectious as 1957–58 Asian flu (≈50% infected), closing schools and keeping children and teenagers...

  2. Pneumonia in novel swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus infection: High-resolution CT findings

    Objective: The purpose of our study was to review the initial high-resolution CT (HRCT) findings in pneumonia patients with presumed/laboratory-confirmed novel swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus (S-OIV) infection and detect pneumonia earlier. Materials and methods: High-resolution CT (HRCT) findings of 106 patients with presumed/laboratory-confirmed novel S-OIV (H1N1) infection were reviewed. The 106 patients were divided into two groups according to the serious condition of the diseases. The pattern (consolidation, ground-glass, nodules, and reticulation), distribution, and extent of abnormality on the HRCT were evaluated in both groups. The dates of the onset of symptoms of the patients were recorded. Results: The predominant CT findings in the patients at presentation were unilateral or bilateral multifocal asymmetric ground-glass opacities alone (n = 29, 27.4%), with unilateral or bilateral consolidation (n = 50, 47.2%). The consolidation had peribronchovascular and subpleural predominance. The areas of consolidation were found mainly in the posterior, middle and lower regions of the lungs. Reticular opacities were found in 6 cases of the initial MDCT scan. The extent of disease was greater in group 1 patients requiring advanced mechanical ventilation, with diffuse involvement in 19 patients (63.3%) of group 1 patients, and only 15/76 (19.7%) of group 2 patients (p 2 test). 20 cases (19%) of the 106 patients had small bilateral or unilateral pleural effusions. None had evidence of hilar or mediastinal lymph node enlargement on CT performed at admission or later. Conclusions: The most common radiographic and CT findings in patients with S-OIV infection are unilateral or bilateral ground-glass opacities with or without associated focal or multifocal areas of consolidation. On HRCT, the ground-glass opacities had a predominant peribronchovascular and subpleural distribution. CT plays an important role in the early recognition of severe S-OIV (H1N1).

  3. Pandemic and Seasonal Influenza: Therapeutic Challenges

    Memoli, Matthew J.; Morens, David M.; Jeffery K Taubenberger

    2008-01-01

    Influenza A viruses cause significant morbidity and mortality annually, and the threat of a pandemic underscores the need for new therapeutic strategies. Here we briefly discuss novel antiviral agents under investigation, the limitations of current antiviral therapy and stress the importance of secondary bacterial infections in seasonal and pandemic influenza. Additionally, the lack of new antibiotics available to treat increasingly drug resistant organisms such as methicillin-resistant Staph...

  4. Pandemic influenza: overview of vaccines and antiviral drugs.

    Cox, Manon M. J.

    2005-01-01

    Pandemic influenza has become a high priority item for all public health authorities. An influenza pandemic is believed to be imminent, and scientists agree that it will be a matter of when, where, and what will be the causative agent. Recently, most attention has been directed to human cases of avian influenza caused by a H5N1 avian influenza virus. An effective vaccine will be needed to substantially reduce the impact of an influenza pandemic. Current influenza vaccine manufacturing technol...

  5. Pneumonia in novel swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus infection: High-resolution CT findings

    Li Ping, E-mail: pinglee_2000@yahoo.com [Department of Radiology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, 246 Xue Fu Road, Harbin 150086 (China); Su Dongju, E-mail: hyd_sdj@yahoo.com.cn [Department of Respiratory, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, 246 Xue Fu Road, Harbin 150086 (China); Zhang Jifeng, E-mail: zjf2005520@163.com [Department of Radiology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, 246 Xue Fu Road, Harbin 150086 (China); Xia Xudong, E-mail: xiaxd888@163.com [Department of Radiology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, 246 Xue Fu Road, Harbin 150086 (China); Sui Hong, E-mail: suisuihong@126.com [Department of Statistics, Harbin Medical University, 240 Xue Fu Road, Harbin 150086 (China); Zhao Donghui, E-mail: yhwoooooo@yahoo.com.cn [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of Heilongjiang, 187 Xiang An Street, Harbin 150036 (China)

    2011-11-15

    Objective: The purpose of our study was to review the initial high-resolution CT (HRCT) findings in pneumonia patients with presumed/laboratory-confirmed novel swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus (S-OIV) infection and detect pneumonia earlier. Materials and methods: High-resolution CT (HRCT) findings of 106 patients with presumed/laboratory-confirmed novel S-OIV (H1N1) infection were reviewed. The 106 patients were divided into two groups according to the serious condition of the diseases. The pattern (consolidation, ground-glass, nodules, and reticulation), distribution, and extent of abnormality on the HRCT were evaluated in both groups. The dates of the onset of symptoms of the patients were recorded. Results: The predominant CT findings in the patients at presentation were unilateral or bilateral multifocal asymmetric ground-glass opacities alone (n = 29, 27.4%), with unilateral or bilateral consolidation (n = 50, 47.2%). The consolidation had peribronchovascular and subpleural predominance. The areas of consolidation were found mainly in the posterior, middle and lower regions of the lungs. Reticular opacities were found in 6 cases of the initial MDCT scan. The extent of disease was greater in group 1 patients requiring advanced mechanical ventilation, with diffuse involvement in 19 patients (63.3%) of group 1 patients, and only 15/76 (19.7%) of group 2 patients (p < 0.01, {chi}{sup 2} test). 20 cases (19%) of the 106 patients had small bilateral or unilateral pleural effusions. None had evidence of hilar or mediastinal lymph node enlargement on CT performed at admission or later. Conclusions: The most common radiographic and CT findings in patients with S-OIV infection are unilateral or bilateral ground-glass opacities with or without associated focal or multifocal areas of consolidation. On HRCT, the ground-glass opacities had a predominant peribronchovascular and subpleural distribution. CT plays an important role in the early recognition of severe S

  6. Pandemic influenza and the hospitalist: apocalypse when?

    Pile, James C; Gordon, Steven M

    2006-03-01

    Beginning with a cluster of human cases in Hong Kong in 1997, avian influenza (H5N1) has spread progressively through, and beyond, Asia in poultry and other birds; and has resulted in sporadic cases of human disease associated with high mortality. The potential for H5N1 influenza to cause a pandemic of human disease continues to be the subject of intense scrutiny by both the media and the scientific community. While the likelihood of such a prospect is uncertain, the inevitability of future pandemics of influenza is clear. Planning for the eventuality of a virulent influenza pandemic at the local, national and global level is critical to limiting the mortality and morbidity of such an occurrence. Hospitalists have a key role to play in institutional efforts to prepare for a influenza pandemic, and should be aware of lessons that my be applied from both the response to Hurricane Katrina, as well as the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic. PMID:17219482

  7. Antiviral Strategies for Pandemic and Seasonal Influenza

    Fang Fang; Maria Hedlund; Larson, Jeffrey L.

    2010-01-01

    While vaccines are the primary public health response to seasonal and pandemic flu, short of a universal vaccine there are inherent limitations to this approach. Antiviral drugs provide valuable alternative options for treatment and prophylaxis of influenza. Here, we will review drugs and drug candidates against influenza with an emphasis on the recent progress of a host-targeting entry-blocker drug candidate, DAS181, a sialidase fusion protein.

  8. The 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Influenza in Korea

    Kim, Jae Yeol

    2016-01-01

    In late March of 2009, an outbreak of influenza in Mexico, was eventually identified as H1N1 influenza A. In June 2009, the World Health Organization raised a pandemic alert to the highest level. More than 214 countries have reported confirmed cases of pandemic H1N1 influenza A. In Korea, the first case of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 infection was reported on May 2, 2009. Between May 2009 and August 2010, 750,000 cases of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 were confirmed by laboratory test. The H1N1-rel...

  9. Identification and Epidemiology of Severe Respiratory Disease due to Novel Swine-Origin Influenza A (H1N1 Virus Infection in Alberta

    George Zahariadis

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In March 2009, global surveillance started detecting cases of influenza-like illness in Mexico. By mid-April 2009, two pediatric patients were identified in the United States who were confirmed to be infected by a novel influenza A (H1N1 strain. The present article describes the first identified severe respiratory infection and the first death associated with pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1 in Canada.

  10. Quantifying the transmission potential of pandemic influenza

    Chowell, Gerardo; Nishiura, Hiroshi

    2008-03-01

    This article reviews quantitative methods to estimate the basic reproduction number of pandemic influenza, a key threshold quantity to help determine the intensity of interventions required to control the disease. Although it is difficult to assess the transmission potential of a probable future pandemic, historical epidemiologic data is readily available from previous pandemics, and as a reference quantity for future pandemic planning, mathematical and statistical analyses of historical data are crucial. In particular, because many historical records tend to document only the temporal distribution of cases or deaths (i.e. epidemic curve), our review focuses on methods to maximize the utility of time-evolution data and to clarify the detailed mechanisms of the spread of influenza. First, we highlight structured epidemic models and their parameter estimation method which can quantify the detailed disease dynamics including those we cannot observe directly. Duration-structured epidemic systems are subsequently presented, offering firm understanding of the definition of the basic and effective reproduction numbers. When the initial growth phase of an epidemic is investigated, the distribution of the generation time is key statistical information to appropriately estimate the transmission potential using the intrinsic growth rate. Applications of stochastic processes are also highlighted to estimate the transmission potential using similar data. Critically important characteristics of influenza data are subsequently summarized, followed by our conclusions to suggest potential future methodological improvements.

  11. The Possible Impact of Vaccination for Seasonal Influenza on Emergence of Pandemic Influenza via Reassortment

    Xu-Sheng Zhang; Richard Pebody; Daniela De Angelis; Peter J White; Andre Charlett; McCauley, John W.

    2014-01-01

    Background One pathway through which pandemic influenza strains might emerge is reassortment from coinfection of different influenza A viruses. Seasonal influenza vaccines are designed to target the circulating strains, which intuitively decreases the prevalence of coinfection and the chance of pandemic emergence due to reassortment. However, individual-based analyses on 2009 pandemic influenza show that the previous seasonal vaccination may increase the risk of pandemic A(H1N1) pdm09 infecti...

  12. Deaths from Bacterial Pneumonia during 1918–19 Influenza Pandemic

    Brundage, John F.; Shanks, G. Dennis

    2008-01-01

    Deaths during the 1918–19 influenza pandemic have been attributed to a hypervirulent influenza strain. Hence, preparations for the next pandemic focus almost exclusively on vaccine prevention and antiviral treatment for infections with a novel influenza strain. However, we hypothesize that infections with the pandemic strain generally caused self-limited (rarely fatal) illnesses that enabled colonizing strains of bacteria to produce highly lethal pneumonias. This sequential-infection hypothes...

  13. Employment and Compliance with Pandemic Influenza Mitigation Recommendations

    Blake, Kelly D.; Blendon, Robert J.; Viswanath, Kasisomayajula

    2010-01-01

    In the event of a serious pandemic influenza outbreak, businesses must play a key role in protecting employees' health and safety. With regard to pandemic influenza mitigation recommendations requiring social distancing, we examined whether some US employees would disproportionately fail to comply because of job insecurity and financial problems associated with missing work. We used the 2006 Harvard School of Public Health Pandemic Influenza Survey and multivariable logistic regression to det...

  14. Influenza update 2007-2008: vaccine advances, pandemic preparation.

    Mossad, Sherif B

    2007-12-01

    Influenza vaccination remains our best measure to prevent epidemic and pandemic influenza. We must continue to improve vaccination rates for targeted populations. Antiviral options are currently limited to the neuraminidase inhibitors. PMID:18183839

  15. Pandemic H1N1 influenza infections in 2009

    Mustafa Hacımustafaoğlu

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available In early spring 2009 an outbreak of H1N1 influenza A virus infection was detected in Mexico, spreaded quickly, and on June 11 2009, World Health Organization raised its pandemic level to phase 6. This novel H1N1 pandemic influenza A virus represented a quadruple reassortment of swine, human and avian influenza virus strains. This pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza A viruses in different regions of the world were found to be antigenically homogenous. Transmission features, incubation period and clinical findings wee similar with the seasonal influenza viruses, although the gastrointestinal manifestations were more common. Young children (<5years and some special risk groups are at increased risk for infection complications and mortality. The recommended test for diagnosis is real-time PCR. Pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza A strains are sensitive to neuraminidase inhibitors (oseltamivir, zanamivir and resistant to amantadine and rimantadine. Oseltamivir and zanamivir are used for prophlaxis and therapy of infection. However, vaccination against pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza A should be the main target for individual and population based prevention. Monovalent pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza A vaccines are available in this (recent influenza season. According to CDC, the next (2010-2011 influenza season trivalent vaccines will coverage the pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza A vaccine. (Turk Arch Ped 2010; 45: 80th Year: 31-6

  16. Anti-viral properties and mode of action of standardized Echinacea purpurea extract against highly pathogenic avian Influenza virus (H5N1, H7N7 and swine-origin H1N1 (S-OIV

    Schoop Roland

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Influenza virus (IV infections are a major threat to human welfare and animal health worldwide. Anti-viral therapy includes vaccines and a few anti-viral drugs. However vaccines are not always available in time, as demonstrated by the emergence of the new 2009 H1N1-type pandemic strain of swine origin (S-OIV in April 2009, and the acquisition of resistance to neuraminidase inhibitors such as Tamiflu® (oseltamivir is a potential problem. Therefore the prospects for the control of IV by existing anti-viral drugs are limited. As an alternative approach to the common anti-virals we studied in more detail a commercial standardized extract of the widely used herb Echinacea purpurea (Echinaforce®, EF in order to elucidate the nature of its anti-IV activity. Results Human H1N1-type IV, highly pathogenic avian IV (HPAIV of the H5- and H7-types, as well as swine origin IV (S-OIV, H1N1, were all inactivated in cell culture assays by the EF preparation at concentrations ranging from the recommended dose for oral consumption to several orders of magnitude lower. Detailed studies with the H5N1 HPAIV strain indicated that direct contact between EF and virus was required, prior to infection, in order to obtain maximum inhibition in virus replication. Hemagglutination assays showed that the extract inhibited the receptor binding activity of the virus, suggesting that the extract interferes with the viral entry into cells. In sequential passage studies under treatment in cell culture with the H5N1 virus no EF-resistant variants emerged, in contrast to Tamiflu®, which produced resistant viruses upon passaging. Furthermore, the Tamiflu®-resistant virus was just as susceptible to EF as the wild type virus. Conclusion As a result of these investigations, we believe that this standard Echinacea preparation, used at the recommended dose for oral consumption, could be a useful, readily available and affordable addition to existing control options

  17. Avian Influenza Virus: The Threat of A Pandemic

    Shih-Cheng Chang; Yi-Ying Cheng; Shin-Ru Shih

    2006-01-01

    The 1918 influenza A virus pandemic caused a death toll of 40~50 million. Currently,because of the widespread dissemination of the avian influenza virus (H5N1), there is a highrisk of another pandemic. Avian species are the natural hosts for numerous subtypes ofinfluenza A viruses; however, the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAI) is not onlyextremely lethal to domestic avian species but also can infect humans and cause death. Thisreview discusses why the avian influenza virus is co...

  18. Antiviral Resistance and the Control of Pandemic Influenza

    Marc Lipsitch; Ted Cohen; Megan Murray; Levin, Bruce R.

    2007-01-01

    Editors' Summary Background. Governments and health authorities worldwide are planning how they would best prepare for and deal with a future influenza pandemic. Seasonal influenza is thought to affect between 5% and 15% of the population worldwide each year. Most people who get influenza recover within a couple of weeks without lasting effects, but a small proportion of patients, mostly young children and elderly people, experience serious complications that can be fatal. An influenza pandem...

  19. Distribution of sialic acid receptors and influenza A viruses of avian and swine origin and in experimentally infected pigs

    Trebbien, Ramona; Larsen, Lars Erik; Viuff, Birgitte M.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Pigs are considered susceptible to influenza A virus infections from different host origins because earlier studies have shown that they have receptors for both avian (sialic acid-alpha-2,3-terminal saccharides (SAalpha- 2,3)) and swine/human (SA-alpha-2,6) influenza viruses in the...

  20. Can antiviral drugs contain pandemic influenza transmission?

    Niels G Becker

    Full Text Available Antiviral drugs dispensed during the 2009 influenza pandemic generally failed to contain transmission. This poses the question of whether preparedness for a future pandemic should include plans to use antiviral drugs to mitigate transmission.Simulations using a standard transmission model that allows for infected arrivals and delayed vaccination show that attempts to contain transmission require relatively few antiviral doses. In contrast, persistent use of antiviral drugs when the reproduction number remains above 1 use very many doses and are unlikely to reduce the eventual attack rate appreciably unless the stockpile is very large. A second model, in which the community has a household structure, shows that the effectiveness of a strategy of dispensing antiviral drugs to infected households decreases rapidly with time delays in dispensing the antivirals. Using characteristics of past pandemics it is estimated that at least 80% of primary household cases must present upon show of symptoms to have a chance of containing transmission by dispensing antiviral drugs to households. To determine data needs, household outbreaks were simulated with 50% receiving antiviral drugs early and 50% receiving antiviral drugs late. A test to compare the size of household outbreaks indicates that at least 100-200 household outbreaks need to be monitored to find evidence that antiviral drugs can mitigate transmission of the newly emerged virus.Use of antiviral drugs in an early attempt to contain transmission should be part of preparedness plans for a future influenza pandemic. Data on the incidence of the first 350 cases and the eventual attack rates of the first 200 hundred household outbreaks should be used to estimate the initial reproduction number R and the effectiveness of antiviral drugs to mitigate transmission. Use of antiviral drugs to mitigate general transmission should cease if these estimates indicate that containment of transmission is unlikely.

  1. Genetic diversity among pandemic 2009 influenza viruses isolated from a transmission chain

    Fordyce, Sarah L; Bragstad, Karoline; Pedersen, Svend Stenvang; Jensen, Thøger Gorm; Gahrn-Hansen, Bente; Daniels, Rod; Hay, Alan; Kampmann, Marie-Louise; Bruhn, Christian Aw; Moreno-Mayar, J Victor; Avila Arcos, Maria del Carmen; Gilbert, M Thomas P; Nielsen, Lars P

    2013-01-01

    Influenza viruses such as swine-origin influenza A(H1N1) virus (A(H1N1)pdm09) generate genetic diversity due to the high error rate of their RNA polymerase, often resulting in mixed genotype populations (intra-host variants) within a single infection. This variation helps influenza to rapidly...

  2. Alternative Live-Attenuated Influenza Vaccines Based on Modifications in the Polymerase Genes Protect against Epidemic and Pandemic Flu▿

    Solórzano, Alicia; Ye, Jianqiang; Pérez, Daniel R.

    2010-01-01

    Human influenza is a seasonal disease associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Influenza vaccination is the most effective means for disease prevention. We have previously shown that mutations in the PB1 and PB2 genes of the live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) from the cold-adapted (ca) influenza virus A/Ann Arbor/6/60 (H2N2) could be transferred to avian influenza viruses and produce partially attenuated viruses. We also demonstrated that avian influenza viruses carrying the PB1 and PB2 mutations could be further attenuated by stably introducing a hemagglutinin (HA) epitope tag in the PB1 gene. In this work, we wanted to determine whether these modifications would also result in attenuation of a so-called triple reassortant (TR) swine influenza virus (SIV). Thus, the TR influenza A/swine/Wisconsin/14094/99 (H3N2) virus was generated by reverse genetics and subsequently mutated in the PB1 and PB2 genes. Here we show that a combination of mutations in this TR backbone results in an attenuated virus in vitro and in vivo. Furthermore, we show the potential of our TR backbone as a vaccine that provides protection against the 2009 swine-origin pandemic influenza H1N1 virus (S-OIV) when carrying the surface of a classical swine strain. We propose that the availability of alternative backbones to the conventional ca A/Ann Arbor/6/60 LAIV strain could also be useful in epidemic and pandemic influenza and should be considered for influenza vaccine development. In addition, our data provide evidence that the use of these alternative backbones could potentially circumvent the effects of original antigenic sin (OAS) in certain circumstances. PMID:20181702

  3. Early assessment of anxiety and behavioral response to novel swine-origin influenza A(H1N1)

    James Holland Jones; Marcel Salathé

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Since late April, 2009, a novel influenza virus A (H1N1), generally referred to as the "swine flu," has spread around the globe and infected hundreds of thousands of people. During the first few days after the initial outbreak in Mexico, extensive media coverage together with a high degree of uncertainty about the transmissibility and mortality rate associated with the virus caused widespread concern in the population. The spread of an infectious disease can be strongly influenced...

  4. Abbreviated Pandemic Influenza Planning Template for Primary Care Offices

    HCTT CHE

    2010-01-01

    The Abbreviated Pandemic Influenza Plan Template for Primary Care Provider Offices is intended to assist primary care providers and office managers with preparing their offices for quickly putting a plan in place to handle an increase in patient calls and visits, whether during the 2009-2010 influenza season or future influenza seasons.

  5. Waves of El Nino-southern Oscillation and Influenza Pandemics

    Olusegun Steven Ayodele Oluwole

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Influenza pandemics have occurred at irregular intervals for over 500 years, unlike seasonal influenza epidemics which occur annually. Although the risk factors are known, the basis for the timing of influenza pandemic waves are unknown. Coherence of peaks of El Niño and influenza pandemic in 2009–2010, however, suggests that both waves are coupled. This study was done to determine the relation of influenza pandemics to the peaks and waveforms of El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO. ENSO cycles from 1871–2015 which had El Niño phases were windowed from Multivariate El Niño Index. Influenza pandemic peaks were mapped to ENSO monthly time series. ENSO waveforms were compared graphically, and fitted to nonstationary cosinor models. Second order polynomial regression model was fitted to the peak and duration of El Niño. Agglomerative hierarchical cluster of ENSO waveforms was performed. All influenza pandemic peaks mapped to El Niño peaks, with lags of 0–5 months. ENSO waveforms during influenza pandemics share parameters of oscillation. Nonstationary cosinor models showed that ENSO cycles are complex waves. There was second order polynomial relationship between peak and duration of El Niños, p < 0.0001. ENSO waveforms clustered into four distinct groups. ENSO waveforms during influenza pandemics of 1889–1900, 1957–1958, and 1968–1969 linked closely. ENSO indices were significantly high from 7–16 months after onset of cycles, p < 0.0001. Surveillance for El Niño events to forecast periods of maximal transmission and survival of influenza A viruses is, therefore, crucial for public health control strategies.

  6. Liver involvement during influenza infection: perspective on the 2009 influenza pandemic

    Papic, Neven; Pangercic, Ana; Vargovic, Martina; Barsic, Bruno; Vince, Adriana; Kuzman, Ilija

    2011-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Papic et al. (2011) Liver involvement during influenza infection: perspective on the 2009 influenza pandemic. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 6(3), e2–e5. Elevation of liver transaminase levels is a frequent observation during systemic infections. The aim of our study was to investigate liver damage during pandemic 2009 influenza A/H1N1 infection in comparison with seasonal influenza. Serum levels of aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, and gamma‐glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) were significantly higher in patients with pandemic influenza compared to seasonal influenza, which was strongly correlated with hypoxia. Moreover, a positive correlation between C‐reactive protein and serum GGT, alkaline phosphatase, and lactate dehydrogenase was noticed. Our findings support the hypothesis that the pandemic 2009 influenza A/H1N1 is an illness with a significant immune response to infection leading to hepatocellular injury. PMID:21951624

  7. Early assessment of anxiety and behavioral response to novel swine-origin influenza A(H1N1.

    James Holland Jones

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Since late April, 2009, a novel influenza virus A (H1N1, generally referred to as the "swine flu," has spread around the globe and infected hundreds of thousands of people. During the first few days after the initial outbreak in Mexico, extensive media coverage together with a high degree of uncertainty about the transmissibility and mortality rate associated with the virus caused widespread concern in the population. The spread of an infectious disease can be strongly influenced by behavioral changes (e.g., social distancing during the early phase of an epidemic, but data on risk perception and behavioral response to a novel virus is usually collected with a substantial delay or after an epidemic has run its course. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here, we report the results from an online survey that gathered data (n = 6,249 about risk perception of the Influenza A(H1N1 outbreak during the first few days of widespread media coverage (April 28-May 5, 2009. We find that after an initially high level of concern, levels of anxiety waned along with the perception of the virus as an immediate threat. Overall, our data provide evidence that emotional status mediates behavioral response. Intriguingly, principal component analysis revealed strong clustering of anxiety about swine flu, bird flu and terrorism. All three of these threats receive a great deal of media attention and their fundamental uncertainty is likely to generate an inordinate amount of fear vis-a-vis their actual threat. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results suggest that respondents' behavior varies in predictable ways. Of particular interest, we find that affective variables, such as self-reported anxiety over the epidemic, mediate the likelihood that respondents will engage in protective behavior. Understanding how protective behavior such as social distancing varies and the specific factors that mediate it may help with the design of epidemic control strategies.

  8. Achieving clinical equality in an influenza pandemic: patent realities.

    Kane, Eileen M

    2009-01-01

    A twenty-first century novel influenza A (H1N1) pandemic is currently unfolding, and the eventual scope of this public health crisis is not clear. In addition, ongoing surveillance of the avian influenza A (H5N1) virus reveals outbreaks of human-to-human transmission of the virus, with significant mortality. Effective pandemic management depends on pharmaceutical intervention with two different clinical objectives: the generation of an immune response to specific viral strains (vaccination) and the reduction of viral replication in an infected individual (antiviral administration). The ability to offer pharmaceutical interventions for a public health crisis depends on three factors: development, capacity, and access. Pharmaceutical measures must be developed, capacity must be established, and access must be ensured. The article discusses the three nodes of patenting that influence the availability of pharmaceutical countermeasures in an influenza pandemic. Identification of the causative influenza virus is the first step in pandemic management and precedes vaccine design, and the virus and its RNA sequence are both knowledge assets and inputs for vaccine design. Vaccine development, therefore, will be influenced by any patents on the genetic sequences or proteins of the pandemic virus, as well as on novel methods for vaccine production, the actual vaccine or adjuvant technology, all of which are relevant to the assembly of a working vaccine on short notice. Pharmaceutical treatment of influenza infection during a pandemic could also rely on use of patented antiviral drugs, whose efficacy may be revealed as the pandemic unfolds. Unlike vaccines, these are not generally developed de novo for a pandemic, but their availability could be dependent on the exercise of patent rights by market incumbents. Patent rights could control capacity, which may determine access. Pandemic planning must consider how patenting can influence development, capacity and access to

  9. Capacity of Thailand to Contain an Emerging Influenza Pandemic

    Putthasri, Weerasak; Lertiendumrong, Jongkol; Chompook, Pornthip; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj; Coker, Richard

    2009-01-01

    Southeast Asia will likely be the epicenter of the next influenza pandemic. To determine whether health system resources in Thailand are sufficient to contain an emerging pandemic, we mapped health system resources in 76 provinces. We used 3 prepandemic scenarios of clustered cases and determined resource needs, availability, and gaps. We extended this analysis to a scenario of a modest pandemic and assumed that the same standards of clinical care would be required. We found that gaps exist i...

  10. Host adaptive immunity deficiency in severe pandemic influenza

    Bermejo-Martin, Jesus F; Martin-Loeches, Ignacio; Rello, Jordi; Antón, Andres; Almansa, Raquel; Xu, Luoling; Lopez-Campos, Guillermo; Pumarola, Tomás; Ran, Longsi; Ramirez, Paula; Banner, David; Cheuk Ng, Derek; Socias, Lorenzo; Loza, Ana; Andaluz, David

    2010-01-01

    Introduction Pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza causes severe lower respiratory complications in rare cases. The association between host immune responses and clinical outcome in severe cases is unknown. Methods We utilized gene expression, cytokine profiles and generation of antibody responses following hospitalization in 19 critically ill patients with primary pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza pneumonia for identifying host immune responses associated with clinical outcome. Ingenuity pathway analy...

  11. The Possible Impact of Vaccination for Seasonal Influenza on Emergence of Pandemic Influenza via Reassortment.

    Xu-Sheng Zhang

    Full Text Available One pathway through which pandemic influenza strains might emerge is reassortment from coinfection of different influenza A viruses. Seasonal influenza vaccines are designed to target the circulating strains, which intuitively decreases the prevalence of coinfection and the chance of pandemic emergence due to reassortment. However, individual-based analyses on 2009 pandemic influenza show that the previous seasonal vaccination may increase the risk of pandemic A(H1N1 pdm09 infection. In view of pandemic influenza preparedness, it is essential to understand the overall effect of seasonal vaccination on pandemic emergence via reassortment.In a previous study we applied a population dynamics approach to investigate the effect of infection-induced cross-immunity on reducing such a pandemic risk. Here the model was extended by incorporating vaccination for seasonal influenza to assess its potential role on the pandemic emergence via reassortment and its effect in protecting humans if a pandemic does emerge. The vaccination is assumed to protect against the target strains but only partially against other strains. We find that a universal seasonal vaccine that provides full-spectrum cross-immunity substantially reduces the opportunity of pandemic emergence. However, our results show that such effectiveness depends on the strength of infection-induced cross-immunity against any novel reassortant strain. If it is weak, the vaccine that induces cross-immunity strongly against non-target resident strains but weakly against novel reassortant strains, can further depress the pandemic emergence; if it is very strong, the same kind of vaccine increases the probability of pandemic emergence.Two types of vaccines are available: inactivated and live attenuated, only live attenuated vaccines can induce heterosubtypic immunity. Current vaccines are effective in controlling circulating strains; they cannot always help restrain pandemic emergence because of the

  12. Antiviral resistance and the control of pandemic influenza.

    Marc Lipsitch

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The response to the next influenza pandemic will likely include extensive use of antiviral drugs (mainly oseltamivir, combined with other transmission-reducing measures. Animal and in vitro studies suggest that some strains of influenza may become resistant to oseltamivir while maintaining infectiousness (fitness. Use of antiviral agents on the scale anticipated for the control of pandemic influenza will create an unprecedented selective pressure for the emergence and spread of these strains. Nonetheless, antiviral resistance has received little attention when evaluating these plans. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We designed and analyzed a deterministic compartmental model of the transmission of oseltamivir-sensitive and -resistant influenza infections during a pandemic. The model predicts that even if antiviral treatment or prophylaxis leads to the emergence of a transmissible resistant strain in as few as 1 in 50,000 treated persons and 1 in 500,000 prophylaxed persons, widespread use of antivirals may strongly promote the spread of resistant strains at the population level, leading to a prevalence of tens of percent by the end of a pandemic. On the other hand, even in circumstances in which a resistant strain spreads widely, the use of antivirals may significantly delay and/or reduce the total size of the pandemic. If resistant strains carry some fitness cost, then, despite widespread emergence of resistance, antivirals could slow pandemic spread by months or more, and buy time for vaccine development; this delay would be prolonged by nondrug control measures (e.g., social distancing that reduce transmission, or use of a stockpiled suboptimal vaccine. Surprisingly, the model suggests that such nondrug control measures would increase the proportion of the epidemic caused by resistant strains. CONCLUSIONS: The benefits of antiviral drug use to control an influenza pandemic may be reduced, although not completely offset, by drug resistance

  13. High-resolution computed tomography findings of swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus (S-OIV) infection: comparison with scrub typhus

    Jo, Bang Sil; Lee, In Jae; Lee, Kwanseop [Dept. of Radiology, Hallym Univ. College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)], E-mail: ijlee2003@medimail.co.kr; Im, Hyoung June [Dept. of Occupational Medicine, Hallym Univ. College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-07-15

    Background. Swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus (S-OIV) infection and scrub typhus, also known as tsutsugamushi disease can manifest as acute respiratory illnesses, particularly during the late fall or early winter, with similar radiographic findings, such as a predominance of ground-glass opacity (GGO). Purpose. To differentiate S-OIV infection from scrub typhus using high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT). Material and Methods. We retrospectively reviewed the HRCT findings of 14 patients with S-OIV infection and 10 patients with scrub typhus. We assessed the location, cross-sectional distribution, and the presence of a peribronchovascular distribution of GGO and consolidations on HRCT. We also assessed the presence of interlobular septal thickening, bronchial wall thickening, pneumothorax, pneumomediastinum, pleural effusion, and mediastinal or axillary lymph node enlargement. Results. Scrub typhus was more common than S-OIV in elderly patients (P < 0.001). The monthly incidences of S-OIV and scrub typhus infection reached a peak between October and November. About 86% of S-OIV patients and 80% of scrub typhus patients presented with GGO. About 67% of the GGO lesions in S-OIV had a peribronchovascular distribution, but this was absent in scrub typhus (P = 0.005). Consolidation (93% vs. 10%, P < 0.001) and bronchial wall thickening (43% vs. 0%, P = 0.024) were more frequent in S-OIV infection than scrub typhus. Interlobular septal thickening (90% vs. 36%, P = 0.013) and axillary lymphadenopathy (90% vs. 0%, P < 0.001) were more common in scrub typhus than S-OIV infection. Conclusion. There was considerable overlap in HRCT findings between S-OIV infection and scrub typhus. However, S-OIV showed a distinctive peribronchovascular distribution of GGO lesions. Consolidation and bronchial wall thickening were seen more frequently in S-OIV infection, whereas interlobular septal thickening and axillary lymphadenopathy were more common in scrub typhus. Thus, CT could

  14. High-resolution computed tomography findings of swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus (S-OIV) infection: comparison with scrub typhus

    Background. Swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus (S-OIV) infection and scrub typhus, also known as tsutsugamushi disease can manifest as acute respiratory illnesses, particularly during the late fall or early winter, with similar radiographic findings, such as a predominance of ground-glass opacity (GGO). Purpose. To differentiate S-OIV infection from scrub typhus using high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT). Material and Methods. We retrospectively reviewed the HRCT findings of 14 patients with S-OIV infection and 10 patients with scrub typhus. We assessed the location, cross-sectional distribution, and the presence of a peribronchovascular distribution of GGO and consolidations on HRCT. We also assessed the presence of interlobular septal thickening, bronchial wall thickening, pneumothorax, pneumomediastinum, pleural effusion, and mediastinal or axillary lymph node enlargement. Results. Scrub typhus was more common than S-OIV in elderly patients (P < 0.001). The monthly incidences of S-OIV and scrub typhus infection reached a peak between October and November. About 86% of S-OIV patients and 80% of scrub typhus patients presented with GGO. About 67% of the GGO lesions in S-OIV had a peribronchovascular distribution, but this was absent in scrub typhus (P = 0.005). Consolidation (93% vs. 10%, P < 0.001) and bronchial wall thickening (43% vs. 0%, P = 0.024) were more frequent in S-OIV infection than scrub typhus. Interlobular septal thickening (90% vs. 36%, P = 0.013) and axillary lymphadenopathy (90% vs. 0%, P < 0.001) were more common in scrub typhus than S-OIV infection. Conclusion. There was considerable overlap in HRCT findings between S-OIV infection and scrub typhus. However, S-OIV showed a distinctive peribronchovascular distribution of GGO lesions. Consolidation and bronchial wall thickening were seen more frequently in S-OIV infection, whereas interlobular septal thickening and axillary lymphadenopathy were more common in scrub typhus. Thus, CT could

  15. A Single Amino Acid in the HA of pH1N1 2009 Influenza Virus Affects Cell Tropism in Human Airway Epithelium, but Not Transmission in Ferrets

    van Doremalen, Neeltje; Shelton, Holly; Roberts, Kim L.; Jones, Ian M.; Pickles, Ray J.; Thompson, Catherine I.; Barclay, Wendy S.

    2011-01-01

    The first pandemic of the 21st century, pandemic H1N1 2009 (pH1N1 2009), emerged from a swine-origin source. Although human infections with swine-origin influenza have been reported previously, none went on to cause a pandemic or indeed any sustained human transmission. In previous pandemics, specific residues in the receptor binding site of the haemagglutinin (HA) protein of influenza have been associated with the ability of the virus to transmit between humans. In the present study we inves...

  16. Swine influenza test results from animal health laboratories in Canada

    Kloeze, Harold; Mukhi, Shamir N; Alexandersen, Soren

    2013-01-01

    Due to its infrastructure and partnerships the Canadian Animal Health Surveillance Network was able to rapidly collect test results from 9 Canadian laboratories that were conducting primary testing for influenza on swine-origin samples, in response to the threat posed by the pandemic H1N1 influenza virus in 2009.

  17. Crossing the species barrier: the threat of an avian influenza pandemic

    Riedel, Stefan

    2006-01-01

    Avian influenza (H5N1) has recently been recognized as a new emerging infectious disease that may pose a threat to international public health. Most recent developments lead to the belief that H5N1 could become the cause of the next influenza pandemic. This review discusses the characteristics of H5N1 avian influenza virus as an emerging infectious disease with the potential for pandemic development. In addition, the current pandemic influenza alert status and guidelines for pandemic prepared...

  18. Contribución del Laboratorio Nacional de Influenza al enfrentamiento de la influenza pandémica 2009 en Cuba Contribution of the National Influenza Laboratory to confront the 2009 pandemic influenza in Cuba

    Belsy Acosta Herrera

    2011-04-01

    morbidity and mortality around the world. These infections became more significant when associated to epidemics and pandemic events caused by influenza virus. The need for global surveillance of influenza viruses was recognized as early as 1947 and led to the establishment of the World Health Organization (WHO Global Influenza Surveillance Network (GISN. The Cuban National Influenza Centre (NIC belongs to this network since 1975. On April 2009, the recognition of a new influenza A (H1N1 of swine origin circulating in humans was identified as the causative agent of the first pandemic in the 21st century declared by the WHO. OBJECTIVE: to carry out surveillance of the new pandemic virus nationwide. METHODS: the Cuban National Influenza Center developed a diagnostic diagram to confirm infection with the pandemic virus in suspected cases. Different PCR assays for typing and subtyping of influenza A virus were used. RESULTS: from April to December 2009, 6 900 clinical respiratory samples were processed by using this diagram, 980 cases were confirmed and notified to the national health authorities and to the Pan American Health Organization. Human rhinoviruses were other important etiologic agents of the frequently detected acute respiratory infections. CONCLUSION: with the national strategy for surveillance at lab, it was possible to effectively monitor the circulation of the influenza viruses and of other respiratory viruses in our country and to alert the national health authorities, with a view to facing up to the pandemic influenza (2009

  19. An Agent-Based Modeling for Pandemic Influenza in Egypt

    Khalil, Khaled M; Nazmy, Taymour T; Salem, Abdel-Badeeh M

    2010-01-01

    Pandemic influenza has great potential to cause large and rapid increases in deaths and serious illness. The objective of this paper is to develop an agent-based model to simulate the spread of pandemic influenza (novel H1N1) in Egypt. The proposed multi-agent model is based on the modeling of individuals' interactions in a space time context. The proposed model involves different types of parameters such as: social agent attributes, distribution of Egypt population, and patterns of agents' interactions. Analysis of modeling results leads to understanding the characteristics of the modeled pandemic, transmission patterns, and the conditions under which an outbreak might occur. In addition, the proposed model is used to measure the effectiveness of different control strategies to intervene the pandemic spread.

  20. Avian influenza A viruses: from zoonosis to pandemic

    Richard, Mathilde; de Graaf, Miranda; Herfst, Sander

    2014-01-01

    Zoonotic influenza A viruses originating from the animal reservoir pose a threat for humans, as they have the ability to trigger pandemics upon adaptation to and invasion of an immunologically naive population. Of particular concern are the H5N1 viruses that continue to circulate in poultry in numerous countries in Europe, Asia and Africa, and the recently emerged H7N9 viruses in China, due to their relatively high number of human fatalities and pandemic potential. To start a pandemic, zoonot...

  1. Effectiveness of pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccine in preventing pandemic influenza A(H1N1)2009 infection in England and Scotland 2009-2010.

    Hardelid, P; Fleming, D M; McMenamin, J; Andrews, N; Robertson, C; SebastianPillai, P; Ellis, J; Carman, W; Wreghitt, T; Watson, J M; Pebody, R G

    2011-01-01

    Following the global spread of pandemic influenza A(H1N1)2009, several pandemic vaccines have been rapidly developed. The United Kingdom and many other countries in the northern hemisphere implemented seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccine programmes in October 2009. We present the results of a case–control study to estimate effectiveness of such vaccines in preventing confirmed pandemic influenza infection. Some 5,982 individuals with influenza-like illness seen in general practices between November 2009 and January 2010 were enrolled. Those testing positive on PCR for pandemic influenza were assigned as cases and those testing negative as controls. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated as the relative reduction in odds of confirmed infection between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. Fourteen or more days after immunisation with the pandemic vaccine, adjusted vaccine effectiveness (VE) was 72% (95% confidence interval (CI): 21% to 90%). If protection was assumed to start after seven or more days, the adjusted VE was 71% (95% CI: 37% to 87%). Pandemic influenza vaccine was highly effective in preventing confirmed infection with pandemic influenza A(H1N1)2009 from one week after vaccination. No evidence of effectiveness against pandemic influenza A(H1N1)2009 was found for the 2009/10 trivalent seasonal influenza vaccine (adjusted VE of -30% (95% CI: -89% to 11%)). PMID:21251487

  2. Low adherence to influenza vaccination campaigns: is the H1N1 virus pandemic to be blamed?

    Trivellin Valeria

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Over the last few months, debates about the handling of the influenza virus A (H1N1 pandemic took place, in particular regarding the change of the WHO pandemic definition, economic interests, the dramatic communication style of mass media. The activation of plans to reduce the virus diffusion resulted in an important investment of resources. Were those investments proportionate to the risk? Was the pandemic overrated? The workload of the Pediatric Emergency Room (P.E.R. at a teaching hospital in Varese (Northern Italy was investigated in order to evaluate the local diffusion and severity of the new H1N1 influenza epidemic. Discussion A 100% increase of the number of P.E.R. visits, particularly for influenza-like illness, was recorded during weeks 42-46 of 2009 (October, 17 to November, 2; the low rate of hospitalization and the mild presentation of the infection gave rise to the conclusion that the pandemic risk was overrated. Mass media communications concerning the new virus created a disproportionate fear in the population that significantly enhanced the burden of cares at the hospital. In the absence of generally implemented measures for etiological diagnosis, the actual incidence of the H1N1 infection could not be estimated. Virus identification, in fact, was limited to children showing severe symptoms after consultancy with an infectious disease specialist. The alarming nature of the communication campaign and the choice to limit etiologic diagnosis to severe cases created a climate of uncertainty which significantly contributed to the massive admissions to the P.E.R.. Summary The communication strategy adopted by the mass media was an important element during the pandemic: the absence of clarity contributed to the spread of a pandemic phobia that appeared to result more from the sensationalism of the campaign than from infection with the novel influenza A variant of human, avian, swine origin virus. One relevant effect

  3. Immunity to seasonal and pandemic influenza A viruses

    Valkenburg, Sophie A.; Rutigliano, John A.; Ellebedy, Ali H.; Doherty, Peter C.; THOMAS, PAUL G.; Kedzierska, Katherine

    2011-01-01

    The introduction of a new influenza strain into human circulation leads to rapid global spread. This review summarizes innate and adaptive immunity to influenza viruses, with an emphasis on T-cell responses that provide cross-protection between distinct subtypes and strains. We discuss antigenic variation within T-cell immunogenic peptides and our understanding of pre-existing immunity towards the pandemic A(H1N1) 2009 strain.

  4. Multiple Control Strategies for Prevention of Avian Influenza Pandemic

    Roman Ullah; Gul Zaman; Saeed Islam

    2014-01-01

    We present the prevention of avian influenza pandemic by adjusting multiple control functions in the human-to-human transmittable avian influenza model. First we show the existence of the optimal control problem; then by using both analytical and numerical techniques, we investigate the cost-effective control effects for the prevention of transmission of disease. To do this, we use three control functions, the effort to reduce the number of contacts with human infected with mutant avian influ...

  5. Clinical review: Influenza pandemic – physicians and their obligations

    Anantham, Devanand; McHugh, Wendy; O'Neill, Stephen; Forrow, Lachlan

    2008-01-01

    An influenza pandemic threatens to be the most lethal public health crisis to confront the world. Physicians will have critical roles in diagnosis, containment and treatment of influenza, and their commitment to treat despite increased personal risks is essential for a successful public health response. The obligations of the medical profession stem from the unique skills of its practitioners, who are able to provide more effective aid than the general public in a medical emergency. The free ...

  6. Rapid preparation of mutated influenza hemagglutinins for influenza virus pandemic prevention

    Nishioka, Ryosuke; Satomura, Atsushi; Yamada, Junki; Kuroda, Kouichi; Ueda, Mitsuyoshi

    2016-01-01

    Influenza viruses have periodically caused pandemic due to frequent mutation of viral proteins. Influenza viruses have two major membrane glycoproteins: hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). Hemagglutinin plays a crucial role in viral entry, while NA is involved in the process of a viral escape. In terms of developing antiviral drugs, HA is a more important target than NA in the prevention of pandemic, since HA is likely to change the host specificity of a virus by acquiring mutations, t...

  7. Community Assessment Tool for Public Health Emergencies Including Pandemic Influenza

    HCTT-CHE

    2011-04-14

    The Community Assessment Tool (CAT) for Public Health Emergencies Including Pandemic Influenza (hereafter referred to as the CAT) was developed as a result of feedback received from several communities. These communities participated in workshops focused on influenza pandemic planning and response. The 2008 through 2011 workshops were sponsored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Feedback during those workshops indicated the need for a tool that a community can use to assess its readiness for a disaster—readiness from a total healthcare perspective, not just hospitals, but the whole healthcare system. The CAT intends to do just that—help strengthen existing preparedness plans by allowing the healthcare system and other agencies to work together during an influenza pandemic. It helps reveal each core agency partners' (sectors) capabilities and resources, and highlights cases of the same vendors being used for resource supplies (e.g., personal protective equipment [PPE] and oxygen) by the partners (e.g., public health departments, clinics, or hospitals). The CAT also addresses gaps in the community's capabilities or potential shortages in resources. While the purpose of the CAT is to further prepare the community for an influenza pandemic, its framework is an extension of the traditional all-hazards approach to planning and preparedness. As such, the information gathered by the tool is useful in preparation for most widespread public health emergencies. This tool is primarily intended for use by those involved in healthcare emergency preparedness (e.g., community planners, community disaster preparedness coordinators, 9-1-1 directors, hospital emergency preparedness coordinators). It is divided into sections based on the core agency partners, which may be involved in the community's influenza pandemic influenza response.

  8. Cost-Benefit of Stockpiling Drugs for Influenza Pandemic

    Balicer, Ran D.; Huerta, Michael; Davidovitch, Nadav; Grotto, Itamar

    2005-01-01

    We analyzed strategies for the use of stockpiled antiviral drugs in the context of a future influenza pandemic and estimated cost-benefit ratios. Current stockpiling of oseltamivir appears to be cost-saving to the economy under several treatment strategies, including therapeutic treatment of patients and postexposure prophylactic treatment of patients' close contacts.

  9. Avian influenza A viruses: From zoonosis to pandemic

    M. Richard (Mathilde); M.T. de Graaf (Marieke); S. Herfst (Sander)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractZoonotic influenza A viruses originating from the animal reservoir pose a threat for humans, as they have the ability to trigger pandemics upon adaptation to and invasion of an immunologically naive population. Of particular concern are the H5N1 viruses that continue to circulate in poul

  10. INFLUENZA A H1N1 DE ORIGEN PORCINO: Métodos diagnósticos Influenza A H1N1 swine origin: diagnostic methods

    Manuel Antonio Vargas-Córdoba

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available El diagnóstico de la infección por virus influenza reposa sobre técnicas virológicas directas e indirectas. Las diferentes pruebas diagnósticas poseen niveles de sensibilidad y especificidad variables que dependen en gran parte de las características genéticas y antigénicas del virus circulante. En el caso de la aparición de una nueva variante viral las pruebas disponibles en el mercado deben ser validadas para comprobar su eficiencia de detección para el nuevo virus. En caso de baja sensibilidad y especificidad, las pruebas deben ajustarse con el fin de mejorar su poder de detección del nuevo agente. Existen múltiples pruebas diagnósticas que presentan cada una sus ventajas y limitaciones y su selección dependerá de las condiciones específicas de cada laboratorio diagnóstico.The diagnosis of infection by influenza viruses relays on direct and indirect virologic techniques. Different diagnostic tests have variable sensitivities and specificities depending to a large extent on the genetic and antigenic features of the circulating virus. When a new viral variant appears, commercially available tests must be validated in order to verify their performance at detecting the new virus. If a low sensitivity or specificity is found, tests must be adjusted in order to improve their detection power for the new agent. There are multiple diagnostic tests, each one with its own advantages and limitations; so the selection of a test will depend on the specific conditions of a particular diagnostic laboratory.

  11. Influenza A(H1N1) pandemic: 2 years after

    ALLAM, M.F.

    2012-01-01

    In 2009, the emergence of the new H1N1 influenza virus saw the world brace itself for the first influenza pandemic since 1968. Two years after, it is time to evaluate the situation of that Influenza A(H1N1) pandemic and its combat measures.

  12. Understanding pandemic influenza behaviour: An exploratory biopsychosocial study.

    Flowers, Paul; Davis, Mark; Lohm, Davina; Waller, Emily; Stephenson, Niamh

    2016-05-01

    Pandemic influenza represents an ongoing public health threat. Understanding the associated behavioural domain is vital for future intervention development. Cross-sectional qualitative research employing purposive sampling employed a combination of one-to-one semi-structured interviews (n = 57) and focus groups (n = 59). Data were analysed using (1) inductive thematic analysis and (2) theoretical thematic analysis focusing upon resonance with psychosocial and sociocultural constructs. Two broad themes highlighted an important duality regarding the determinants of pandemic behaviour: (1) psychosocial determinants (e.g. agency, cognitions and identity) and (2) sociocultural determinants (e.g. social context and capacity). These findings suggest this duality should shape future intervention development. PMID:24957318

  13. Nonpharmaceutical Interventions for Military Populations During Pandemic Influenza

    Selim Kilic

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Influenza causes substantial illness and loss of work days among young adults, and outbreaks can affect the preparedness of military units. In an influenza pandemic, people who live in confined settings have greater risk of infection. Military trainees are at particularly high risk. Because of likely unavailability of vaccines and antiviral drugs at the start of a pandemic and for many months thereafter, nonpharmaceutical interventions may be very important. During a pandemic, it seems prudent that military public health officials employ at least several nonpharmaceutical interventions. For example frequent handwashing and respiratory hygiene/cough etiquette should be strongly encouraged among soldiers. Head-to-toe sleeping, a “no-cost” intervention should be for crowded berthing areas. Isolation of patients with influenza and quarantine of their close contacts should be employed. Masks and alcohol-based hand rubs may be employed among those at highest risk. Finally, whenever possible military planners should, reduce crowding and limit the interaction of training cohorts to reduce risk of influenza virus transmission. [TAF Prev Med Bull 2007; 6(4.000: 285-290

  14. Nonpharmaceutical Interventions for Military Populations During Pandemic Influenza

    Selim Kilic

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Influenza causes substantial illness and loss of work days among young adults, and outbreaks can affect the preparedness of military units. In an influenza pandemic, people who live in confined settings have greater risk of infection. Military trainees are at particularly high risk. Because of likely unavailability of vaccines and antiviral drugs at the start of a pandemic and for many months thereafter, nonpharmaceutical interventions may be very important. During a pandemic, it seems prudent that military public health officials employ at least several nonpharmaceutical interventions. For example frequent handwashing and respiratory hygiene/cough etiquette should be strongly encouraged among soldiers. Head-to-toe sleeping, a “no-cost” intervention should be for crowded berthing areas. Isolation of patients with influenza and quarantine of their close contacts should be employed. Masks and alcohol-based hand rubs may be employed among those at highest risk. Finally, whenever possible military planners should, reduce crowding and limit the interaction of training cohorts to reduce risk of influenza virus transmission. [TAF Prev Med Bull. 2007; 6(4: 285-290

  15. IL-17 response mediates acute lung injury induced by the 2009 Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1)Virus

    Chenggang Li; Chen Wang; Zhongwei Chen; Li Xing; Chong Tang; Xiangwu Ju; Feng Guo; Jiejie Deng; Yan Zhao; Peng Yang; Jun Tang; Penghui Yang; Huanling Wang; Zhongpeng Zhao; Zhinan Yin; Bin Cao; Xiliang Wang; Chengyu Jiang; Yang Sun; Taisheng Li; Chen Wang; Zhong Wang; Zhen Zou; Yiwu Yan; Wei Wang

    2012-01-01

    The 2009 flu pandemic involved the emergence of a new strain of a swine-origin H1N1 influenza virus(S-OIV H1N1)that infected almost every country in the world.Most infections resulted in respiratory illness and some severe cases resulted in acute lung injury.In this report,we are the first to describe a mouse model of S-OIV virus infection with acute lung injury and immune responses that reflect human clinical disease.The clinical efficacy of the antiviral oseltamivir(Tamiflu)administered in the early stages of S-OIV H1N1 infection was confirmed in the mouse model.Moreover,elevated levels of IL-17,Th-17 mediators and IL-17-responsive cytokines were found in serum samples of S-OIV-infected patients in Beijing.IL-17 deficiency or treatment with monoclonal antibodies against IL-17-ameliorated acute lung injury induced by the S-OIV H1N1 virus in mice.These results suggest that IL-17 plays an important role in S-OIV-induced acute lung injury and that monoclonal antibodies against IL-17 could be useful as a potential therapeutic remedy for future S-OIV H1N1 pandemics.

  16. Distribution of selected healthcare resources for influenza pandemic response in Cambodia

    Khilji, SaraUSchwanke; Rudge, JamesW; Drake, Tom; Chavez, Irwin; Borin, Khieu; Touch, Sok; Coker, Richard; Camflu Project, Collaborators

    2013-01-01

    INTRODUCTION Human influenza infection poses a serious public health threat in Cambodia, a country at risk for the emergence and spread of novel influenza viruses with pandemic potential. Prior pandemics demonstrated the adverse impact of influenza on poor communities in developing countries. Investigation of healthcare resource distribution can inform decisions regarding resource mobilization and investment for pandemic mitigation. METHODS A health facility survey performed across Cambo...

  17. Pandemic Influenza Background (PDF 99 KB)

    Department of Health; Social Services and Public Safety

    2006-01-01

    The Presence of highly pathogenicH5N1 avian influenza has been confirmed in birds in Turkey, Romania, Russia and Kazakhstan. There have been a total of 4 confirmed cases of human infection in Eastern/South Eastern Turkey that has resulted in 2 deaths. Background Avian influenza naturally circulates in wild waterfowl such as ducks and geese often causing little or no symptoms. Many other bird species are susceptible to infection with these influenza viruses and in many of these species i...

  18. Influenza A (H1N1) 2009: a pandemic alarm

    Madhu Khanna; Neha Gupta; Ankit Gupta; V K Vijayan

    2009-09-01

    At this critical juncture when the world has not yet recovered from the threat of avian influenza, the virus has returned in the disguise of swine influenza, a lesser known illness common in pigs. It has reached pandemic proportions in a short time span with health personnel still devising ways to identify the novel H1N1 virus and develop vaccines against it. The H1N1 virus has caused a considerable number of deaths within the short duration since its emergence. Presently, there are no effective methods to contain this newly emerged virus. Therefore, a proper and clear insight is urgently required to prevent an outbreak in the future and make preparations that may be planned well in advance. This review is an attempt to discuss the historical perspective of the swine flu virus, its epidemiology and route of transmission to better understand the various control measures that may be taken to fight the danger of a global pandemic.

  19. Antiviral Prophylaxis and Isolation for the Control of Pandemic Influenza

    Qingxia Zhang; Dingcheng Wang

    2014-01-01

    Before effective vaccines become available, antiviral drugs are considered as the major control strategies for a pandemic influenza. However, perhaps such control strategies can be severely hindered by the low-efficacy of antiviral drugs. For this reason, using antiviral drugs and an isolation strategy is included in our study. A compartmental model that allows for imported exposed individuals and asymptomatic cases is used to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies via antiviral pro...

  20. Influenza A pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus infection

    BAI Lu; CAO Bin; WANG Chen

    2011-01-01

    The clinical spectrum of the 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) infection ranged from self-limited mild illness to progressive pneumonia,or even a fatal outcome.We summarize the clinical manifestations,risk factors for severe and fatal cases,pathologic findings and treatment of this disease in this paper based on current reports from different regions of the world.

  1. Community Assessment Tool for Public Health Emergencies Including Pandemic Influenza

    ORAU' s Oak Ridge Institute for Science Education (HCTT-CHE)

    2011-04-14

    The Community Assessment Tool (CAT) for Public Health Emergencies Including Pandemic Influenza (hereafter referred to as the CAT) was developed as a result of feedback received from several communities. These communities participated in workshops focused on influenza pandemic planning and response. The 2008 through 2011 workshops were sponsored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Feedback during those workshops indicated the need for a tool that a community can use to assess its readiness for a disaster - readiness from a total healthcare perspective, not just hospitals, but the whole healthcare system. The CAT intends to do just that - help strengthen existing preparedness plans by allowing the healthcare system and other agencies to work together during an influenza pandemic. It helps reveal each core agency partners (sectors) capabilities and resources, and highlights cases of the same vendors being used for resource supplies (e.g., personal protective equipment [PPE] and oxygen) by the partners (e.g., public health departments, clinics, or hospitals). The CAT also addresses gaps in the community's capabilities or potential shortages in resources. This tool has been reviewed by a variety of key subject matter experts from federal, state, and local agencies and organizations. It also has been piloted with various communities that consist of different population sizes, to include large urban to small rural communities.

  2. Rapid detection of pandemic influenza in the presence of seasonal influenza

    Robertson Chris

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Key to the control of pandemic influenza are surveillance systems that raise alarms rapidly and sensitively. In addition, they must minimise false alarms during a normal influenza season. We develop a method that uses historical syndromic influenza data from the existing surveillance system 'SERVIS' (Scottish Enhanced Respiratory Virus Infection Surveillance for influenza-like illness (ILI in Scotland. Methods We develop an algorithm based on the weekly case ratio (WCR of reported ILI cases to generate an alarm for pandemic influenza. From the seasonal influenza data from 13 Scottish health boards, we estimate the joint probability distribution of the country-level WCR and the number of health boards showing synchronous increases in reported influenza cases over the previous week. Pandemic cases are sampled with various case reporting rates from simulated pandemic influenza infections and overlaid with seasonal SERVIS data from 2001 to 2007. Using this combined time series we test our method for speed of detection, sensitivity and specificity. Also, the 2008-09 SERVIS ILI cases are used for testing detection performances of the three methods with a real pandemic data. Results We compare our method, based on our simulation study, to the moving-average Cumulative Sums (Mov-Avg Cusum and ILI rate threshold methods and find it to be more sensitive and rapid. For 1% case reporting and detection specificity of 95%, our method is 100% sensitive and has median detection time (MDT of 4 weeks while the Mov-Avg Cusum and ILI rate threshold methods are, respectively, 97% and 100% sensitive with MDT of 5 weeks. At 99% specificity, our method remains 100% sensitive with MDT of 5 weeks. Although the threshold method maintains its sensitivity of 100% with MDT of 5 weeks, sensitivity of Mov-Avg Cusum declines to 92% with increased MDT of 6 weeks. For a two-fold decrease in the case reporting rate (0.5% and 99% specificity, the WCR and

  3. Pediatric Healthcare Response to Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza Stakeholder Meeting - Summary of Proceedings

    HCTT CHE

    2010-01-01

    The goal of the meeting was to bring together subject matter experts to develop tools and resources for use by the pediatric healthcare community in response to 2009 (H1N1) pandemic influenza activity during the 2009 influenza season.

  4. Market implementation of the MVA platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza vaccines: A quantitative key opinion leader analysis

    B. Ramezanpour (Bahar); E.S. Pronker (Esther); J.H.C.M. Kreijtz (Joost); A.D.M.E. Osterhaus (Albert); H.J.H.M. Claassen (Eric)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractA quantitative method is presented to rank strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) as a platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza vaccines. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to achieve pairwise comparisons among S

  5. Outbreak of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 in Nepal

    Shrestha Sirjana; Prakash KC Khagendra; Upadhyay Bishnu; Shakya Geeta; Adhikari Bal Ram; Dhungana Guna

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background The 2009 flu pandemic is a global outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 influenza virus. Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 has posed a serious public health challenge world-wide. Nepal has started Laboratory diagnosis of Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 from mid June 2009 though active screening of febrile travellers with respiratory symptoms was started from April 27, 2009. Results Out of 609 collected samples, 302 (49.6%) were Universal Influenza A positive. Among the influenza A pos...

  6. Are we prepared to help low‐resource communities cope with a severe influenza pandemic?

    Starbuck, Eric S.; von Bernuth, Rudolph; Bolles, Kathryn; Koepsell, Jeanne

    2012-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Starbuck et al (2012) Are we prepared to help low‐resource communities cope with a severe influenza pandemic? Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses DOI: 10.1111/irv.12040. Recent research involving lab‐modified H5N1 influenza viruses with increased transmissibility and the ongoing evolution of the virus in nature should remind us of the continuing importance of preparedness for a severe influenza pandemic. Current vaccine technology and antiviral supply remain ina...

  7. Population-wide emergence of antiviral resistance during pandemic influenza.

    Seyed M Moghadas

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The emergence of neuraminidase inhibitor resistance has raised concerns about the prudent use of antiviral drugs in response to the next influenza pandemic. While resistant strains may initially emerge with compromised viral fitness, mutations that largely compensate for this impaired fitness can arise. Understanding the extent to which these mutations affect the spread of disease in the population can have important implications for developing pandemic plans. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: By employing a deterministic mathematical model, we investigate possible scenarios for the emergence of population-wide resistance in the presence of antiviral drugs. The results show that if the treatment level (the fraction of clinical infections which receives treatment is maintained constant during the course of the outbreak, there is an optimal level that minimizes the final size of the pandemic. However, aggressive treatment above the optimal level can substantially promote the spread of highly transmissible resistant mutants and increase the total number of infections. We demonstrate that resistant outbreaks can occur more readily when the spread of disease is further delayed by applying other curtailing measures, even if treatment levels are kept modest. However, by changing treatment levels over the course of the pandemic, it is possible to reduce the final size of the pandemic below the minimum achieved at the optimal constant level. This reduction can occur with low treatment levels during the early stages of the pandemic, followed by a sharp increase in drug-use before the virus becomes widely spread. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings suggest that an adaptive antiviral strategy with conservative initial treatment levels, followed by a timely increase in the scale of drug-use, can minimize the final size of a pandemic while preventing large outbreaks of resistant infections.

  8. Nationwide surveillance of influenza during the pandemic (2009-10 and post-pandemic (2010-11 periods in Taiwan.

    Jen-Hsiang Chuang

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Although WHO declared the world moving into the post-pandemic period on August 10, 2010, influenza A(H1N1 2009 virus continued to circulate globally. Its impact was expected to continue during the 2010-11 influenza season. This study describes the nationwide surveillance findings of the pandemic and post-pandemic influenza periods in Taiwan and assesses the impact of influenza A(H1N1 2009 during the post-pandemic period. METHODS: The Influenza Laboratory Surveillance Network consisted of 12 contract laboratories for collecting and testing samples with acute respiratory tract infections. Surveillance of emergency room visits and outpatient department visits for influenza-like illness (ILI were conducted using the Real-Time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance system and the National Health Insurance program data, respectively. Hospitalized cases with severe complications and deaths were reported to the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. RESULTS: During the 2009-10 influenza season, pandemic A(H1N1 2009 was the predominant circulating strain and caused 44 deaths. However, the 2010-11 influenza season began with A(H3N2 being the predominant circulating strain, changing to A(H1N1 2009 in December 2010. Emergency room and outpatient department ILI surveillance displayed similar trends. By March 31, 2011, there were 1,751 cases of influenza with severe complications; 50.1% reported underlying diseases. Of the reported cases, 128 deaths were associated with influenza. Among these, 93 (72.6% were influenza A(H1N1 2009 and 30 (23.4% A(H3N2. Compared to the pandemic period, during the immediate post-pandemic period, increased number of hospitalizations and deaths were observed, and the patients were consistently older. CONCLUSIONS: Reemergence of influenza A(H1N1 2009 during the 2010-11 influenza season had an intense activity with age distribution shift. To further mitigate the impact of future influenza epidemics, Taiwan must

  9. Pandemic economics: the 1918 influenza and its modern-day implications

    Garrett, Thomas A

    2008-01-01

    Many predictions of the economic and social costs of a modern-day pandemic are based on the effects of the influenza pandemic of 1918. Despite killing 675,000 people in the United States and 40 million worldwide, the influenza of 1918 has been nearly forgotten. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the influenza pandemic of 1918 in the United States, its economic effects, and its implications for a modern-day pandemic. The paper provides a brief historical background as well ...

  10. Characterization of the 2009 pandemic A/Beijing/501/2009 H1N1 influenza strain in human airway epithelial cells and ferrets.

    Penghui Yang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A novel 2009 swine-origin influenza A H1N1 virus (S-OIV H1N1 has been transmitted among humans worldwide. However, the pathogenesis of this virus in human airway epithelial cells and mammals is not well understood. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDING: In this study, we showed that a 2009 A (H1N1 influenza virus strain, A/Beijing/501/2009, isolated from a human patient, caused typical influenza-like symptoms including weight loss, fluctuations in body temperature, and pulmonary pathological changes in ferrets. We demonstrated that the human lung adenocarcinoma epithelial cell line A549 was susceptible to infection and that the infected cells underwent apoptosis at 24 h post-infection. In contrast to the seasonal H1N1 influenza virus, the 2009 A (H1N1 influenza virus strain A/Beijing/501/2009 induced more cell death involving caspase-3-dependent apoptosis in A549 cells. Additionally, ferrets infected with the A/Beijing/501/2009 H1N1 virus strain exhibited increased body temperature, greater weight loss, and higher viral titers in the lungs. Therefore, the A/Beijing/501/2009 H1N1 isolate successfully infected the lungs of ferrets and caused more pathological lesions than the seasonal influenza virus. Our findings demonstrate that the difference in virulence of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus and the seasonal H1N1 influenza virus in vitro and in vivo may have been mediated by different mechanisms. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our understanding of the pathogenesis of the 2009 A (H1N1 influenza virus infection in both humans and animals is broadened by our findings that apoptotic cell death is involved in the cytopathic effect observed in vitro and that the pathological alterations in the lungs of S-OIV H1N1-infected ferrets are much more severe.

  11. Economic analysis of pandemic influenza vaccination strategies in Singapore.

    Vernon J Lee

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: All influenza pandemic plans advocate pandemic vaccination. However, few studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of different vaccination strategies. This paper compares the economic outcomes of vaccination compared with treatment with antiviral agents alone, in Singapore. METHODOLOGY: We analyzed the economic outcomes of pandemic vaccination (immediate vaccination and vaccine stockpiling compared with treatment-only in Singapore using a decision-based model to perform cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses. We also explored the annual insurance premium (willingness to pay depending on the perceived risk of the next pandemic occurring. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The treatment-only strategy resulted in 690 deaths, 13,950 hospitalization days, and economic cost of USD$497 million. For immediate vaccination, at vaccine effectiveness of >55%, vaccination was cost-beneficial over treatment-only. Vaccine stockpiling is not cost-effective in most scenarios even with 100% vaccine effectiveness. The annual insurance premium was highest with immediate vaccination, and was lower with increased duration to the next pandemic. The premium was also higher with higher vaccine effectiveness, attack rates, and case-fatality rates. Stockpiling with case-fatality rates of 0.4-0.6% would be cost-beneficial if vaccine effectiveness was >80%; while at case-fatality of >5% stockpiling would be cost-beneficial even if vaccine effectiveness was 20%. High-risk sub-groups warrant higher premiums than low-risk sub-groups. CONCLUSIONS: The actual pandemic vaccine effectiveness and lead time is unknown. Vaccine strategy should be based on perception of severity. Immediate vaccination is most cost-effective, but requires vaccines to be available when required. Vaccine stockpiling as insurance against worst-case scenarios is also cost-effective. Research and development is therefore critical to develop and stockpile cheap, readily available effective vaccines.

  12. Rapid preparation of mutated influenza hemagglutinins for influenza virus pandemic prevention.

    Nishioka, Ryosuke; Satomura, Atsushi; Yamada, Junki; Kuroda, Kouichi; Ueda, Mitsuyoshi

    2016-03-01

    Influenza viruses have periodically caused pandemic due to frequent mutation of viral proteins. Influenza viruses have two major membrane glycoproteins: hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). Hemagglutinin plays a crucial role in viral entry, while NA is involved in the process of a viral escape. In terms of developing antiviral drugs, HA is a more important target than NA in the prevention of pandemic, since HA is likely to change the host specificity of a virus by acquiring mutations, thereby to increase the risk of pandemic. To characterize mutated HA functions, current approaches require immobilization of purified HA on plastic wells and carriers. These troublesome methods make it difficult to respond to emerging mutations. In order to address this problem, a yeast cell surface engineering approach was investigated. Using this technology, human HAs derived from various H1N1 subtypes were successfully and rapidly displayed on the yeast cell surface. The yeast-displayed HAs exhibited similar abilities to native influenza virus HAs. Using this system, human HAs with 190E and 225G mutations were shown to exhibit altered recognition specificities from human to avian erythrocytes. This system furthermore allowed direct measurement of HA binding abilities without protein purification and immobilization. Coupled with the ease of genetic manipulation, this system allows the simple and comprehensive construction of mutant protein libraries on yeast cell surface, thereby contributing to influenza virus pandemic prevention. PMID:26797882

  13. Pandemic H1N1 influenza infections in 2009 Invited Author

    Hacımustafaoğlu, Mustafa

    2010-01-01

    In early spring 2009 an outbreak of H1N1 influenza A virus infection was detected in Mexico spreaded quickly and on June 11 2009 World Health Organization raised its pandemic level to phase 6 This novel H1N1 pandemic influenza A virus represented a quadruple reassortment of swine human and avian influenza virus strains This pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza A viruses in different regions of the world were found to be antigenically homogenous Transmission features incubation period and clinical fin...

  14. Overcrowding and Mortality During the Influenza Pandemic of 1918.

    Aligne, C Andrew

    2016-04-01

    The influenza pandemic of 1918 killed more than 50 million people. Why was 1918 such an outlier? I. W. Brewer, a US Army physician at Camp Humphreys, Virginia, during the First World War, investigated several factors suspected of increasing the risk of severe flu: length of service in the army, race, dirty dishes, flies, dust, crowding, and weather. Overcrowding stood out, increasing the risk of flu 10-fold and the risk of flu complicated with pneumonia five-fold. Calculations made with Brewer's data show that the overall relationship between overcrowding and severe flu was highly significant (P < .001). Brewer's findings suggest that man-made conditions increased the severity of the pandemic flu illness. PMID:26959269

  15. Does the effectiveness of control measures depend on the influenza pandemic profile?

    Solen Kernéis

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Although strategies to contain influenza pandemics are well studied, the characterization and the implications of different geographical and temporal diffusion patterns of the pandemic have been given less attention. METHODOLOGY/MAIN FINDINGS: Using a well-documented metapopulation model incorporating air travel between 52 major world cities, we identified potential influenza pandemic diffusion profiles and examined how the impact of interventions might be affected by this heterogeneity. Clustering methods applied to a set of pandemic simulations, characterized by seven parameters related to the conditions of emergence that were varied following Latin hypercube sampling, were used to identify six pandemic profiles exhibiting different characteristics notably in terms of global burden (from 415 to >160 million of cases and duration (from 26 to 360 days. A multivariate sensitivity analysis showed that the transmission rate and proportion of susceptibles have a strong impact on the pandemic diffusion. The correlation between interventions and pandemic outcomes were analyzed for two specific profiles: a fast, massive pandemic and a slow building, long-lasting one. In both cases, the date of introduction for five control measures (masks, isolation, prophylactic or therapeutic use of antivirals, vaccination correlated strongly with pandemic outcomes. Conversely, the coverage and efficacy of these interventions only moderately correlated with pandemic outcomes in the case of a massive pandemic. Pre-pandemic vaccination influenced pandemic outcomes in both profiles, while travel restriction was the only measure without any measurable effect in either. CONCLUSIONS: our study highlights: (i the great heterogeneity in possible profiles of a future influenza pandemic; (ii the value of being well prepared in every country since a pandemic may have heavy consequences wherever and whenever it starts; (iii the need to quickly implement control

  16. Clinical outcomes of seasonal influenza and pandemic influenza A (H1N1 in pediatric inpatients

    Budd Alicia

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In April 2009, a novel influenza A H1N1 (nH1N1 virus emerged and spread rapidly worldwide. News of the pandemic led to a heightened awareness of the consequences of influenza and generally resulted in enhanced infection control practices and strengthened vaccination efforts for both healthcare workers and the general population. Seasonal influenza (SI illness in the pediatric population has been previously shown to result in significant morbidity, mortality, and substantial hospital resource utilization. Although influenza pandemics have the possibility of resulting in considerable illness, we must not ignore the impact that we can experience annually with SI. Methods We compared the outcomes of pediatric patients ≤18 years of age at a large urban hospital with laboratory confirmed influenza and an influenza-like illness (ILI during the 2009 pandemic and two prior influenza seasons. The primary outcome measure was hospital length of stay (LOS. All variables potentially associated with LOS based on univariable analysis, previous studies, or hypothesized relationships were included in the regression models to ensure adjustment for their effects. Results There were 133 pediatric cases of nH1N1 admitted during 2009 and 133 cases of SI admitted during the prior 2 influenza seasons (2007-8 and 2008-9. Thirty-six percent of children with SI and 18% of children with nH1N1 had no preexisting medical conditions (p = 0.14. Children admitted with SI had 1.73 times longer adjusted LOS than children admitted for nH1N1 (95% CI 1.35 - 2.13. There was a trend towards more children with SI requiring mechanical ventilation compared with nH1N1 (16 vs.7, p = 0.08. Conclusions This study strengthens the growing body of evidence demonstrating that SI results in significant morbidity in the pediatric population. Pandemic H1N1 received considerable attention with strong media messages urging people to undergo vaccination and encouraging improved

  17. Natality Decline and Miscarriages Associated With the 1918 Influenza Pandemic: The Scandinavian and United States Experiences

    Bloom-Feshbach, Kimberly; Simonsen, Lone; Viboud, Cecile;

    2011-01-01

    Background. Although pregnancy is a recognized risk factor for severe influenza infection, the effect of influenza on miscarriages and births remains unclear. We examined the relationship between influenza and birth rates during the 1918 pandemic in the United States, Denmark, Sweden, and Norway...... peak pandemic exposure and depressions in birth rates, and identified pregnancy stages at risk of influenza-related miscarriage. Results. Birth rates declined in all study populations in spring 1919 by a mean of 2.2 births per 1000 persons, representing a 5%–15% drop below baseline levels (P < .05......). The 1919 natality depression reached its trough 6.1–6.8 months after the autumn pandemic peak, suggesting that missing births were attributable to excess first trimester miscarriages in ∼1 in 10 women who were pregnant during the peak of the pandemic. Pandemic-related mortality was insufficient to...

  18. Debate Regarding Oseltamivir Use for Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza

    Kelly, Heath

    2016-01-01

    A debate about the market-leading influenza antiviral medication, oseltamivir, which initially focused on treatment for generally mild illness, has been expanded to question the wisdom of stockpiling for use in future influenza pandemics. Although randomized controlled trial evidence confirms that oseltamivir will reduce symptom duration by 17–25 hours among otherwise healthy adolescents and adults with community-managed disease, no randomized controlled trials have examined the effectiveness of oseltamivir against more serious outcomes. Observational studies, although criticized on methodologic grounds, suggest that oseltamivir given early can reduce the risk for death by half among persons hospitalized with confirmed infection caused by influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and influenza A(H5N1) viruses. However, available randomized controlled trial data may not be able to capture the effect of oseltamivir use among hospitalized patients with severe disease. We assert that data on outpatients with relatively mild disease should not form the basis for policies on the management of more severe disease. PMID:27191818

  19. [Pandemic influenza: impact on health care facilities in Lazio, Italy, and the role of hospitals in pandemic management].

    Fusco, Franceso Maria; Pittalis, Silvia; Puro, Vincenzo; Lauria, Francesco Nicola; Ippolito, Giuseppe

    2007-09-01

    Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus H5N1 has so far caused more than 250 human cases. This virus is not transmitted efficaciously from person to person, but the capacity of human-to-human transmission could be acquired in the future. Consequently, the epidemiological and virological evolution of H5N1 is strictly monitored, insofar as the virus is a potential agent of an influenza pandemic. During such a pandemic, health care facilities would have to cope with many cases of severe respiratory illnesses, often requiring intensive care and mechanical pulmonary ventilation. In this article, the impact of the pandemic on health care facilities in Lazio, Italy, is evaluated using a statistical model, Flu-Surge. Moreover, some aspects of hospital preparedness for a pandemic, in particular in emergency departments, are discussed. PMID:17940401

  20. Behavioural intentions in response to an influenza pandemic

    Schaalma Herman

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Little is known regarding which behavioural responses can be expected if an influenza pandemic were to occur. Methods A survey comprising questions based on risk perception theories, in particular PMT, was conducted with a Dutch sample. Results Although fear that an influenza pandemic may occur was high, participants do not feel well informed. General practitioners and local health authorities were considered trustworthy sources of information and the information considered most urgent pertained to which protective measures should be taken. Participants reported an intention to comply with recommendations regarding protective measures. However, response and self efficacy were low. Maladaptive behaviours can be expected. Increasing numbers of ill individuals and school closures are also expected to lead to a decreased work force. Participants indicated wanting antiviral drugs even if the supply were to be insufficient. Conclusions Messages regarding health protective behaviours from local health authorities should anticipate the balance between overreacting and underreacting. Also, when protective recommendations from health professionals conflict with company policies, it is unclear how employees will react.

  1. Pandemic vaccination strategies and influenza severe outcomes during the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic and the post-pandemic influenza season: the Nordic experience.

    Cuesta, Julita Gil; Aavitsland, Preben; Englund, Hélène; Gudlaugsson, Ólafur; Hauge, Siri Helene; Lyytikäinen, Outi; Sigmundsdóttir, Guðrún; Tegnell, Anders; Virtanen, Mikko; Krause, Tyra Grove

    2016-04-21

    During the 2009/10 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic, the five Nordic countries adopted different approaches to pandemic vaccination. We compared pandemic vaccination strategies and severe influenza outcomes, in seasons 2009/10 and 2010/11 in these countries with similar influenza surveillance systems. We calculated the cumulative pandemic vaccination coverage in 2009/10 and cumulative incidence rates of laboratory confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 infections, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and deaths in 2009/10 and 2010/11. We estimated incidence risk ratios (IRR) in a Poisson regression model to compare those indicators between Denmark and the other countries. The vaccination coverage was lower in Denmark (6.1%) compared with Finland (48.2%), Iceland (44.1%), Norway (41.3%) and Sweden (60.0%). In 2009/10 Denmark had a similar cumulative incidence of A(H1N1)pdm09 ICU admissions and deaths compared with the other countries. In 2010/11 Denmark had a significantly higher cumulative incidence of A(H1N1)pdm09 ICU admissions (IRR: 2.4; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.9-3.0) and deaths (IRR: 8.3; 95% CI: 5.1-13.5). Compared with Denmark, the other countries had higher pandemic vaccination coverage and experienced less A(H1N1)pdm09-related severe outcomes in 2010/11. Pandemic vaccination may have had an impact on severe influenza outcomes in the post-pandemic season. Surveillance of severe outcomes may be used to compare the impact of influenza between seasons and support different vaccination strategies. PMID:27123691

  2. Learning from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic: prospects for more broadly effective influenza vaccines

    Ethan C. Settembre; Philip R. Dormitzer; Rino Rappuoli

    2011-01-01

    Calls to develop a universal influenza vaccine have increased in the wake of the 2009 H1 N1 influenza pandemic. This demand comes at a time when analyses of the human antibody repertoire, informed by structures of complexes between broadly neutralizing antibodies and influenza hemagglutinin, have revealed the target of a class of broadly neutralizing antibodies. Recent studies suggest a path forward to more broadly protective influenza vaccines.%@@ Calls to develop a universal influenza vaccine have increased in the wake of the 2009 H1 N1 influenza pandemic.This demand comes at a time when analyses of the human antibody repertoire, informed by structures of complexes between broadly neutralizing antibodies and influenza hemagglutinin, have revealed the target of a class of broadly neutralizing antibodies.Recent studies suggest a path forward to more broadly protective influenza vaccines.

  3. Evaluation of Three Live Attenuated H2 Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Candidates in Mice and Ferrets

    Chen, Grace L.; Lamirande, Elaine W.; Cheng, Xing; Torres-Velez, Fernando; Orandle, Marlene; Jin, Hong; Kemble, George; Subbarao, Kanta

    2014-01-01

    H2 influenza viruses have not circulated in humans since 1968, and therefore a significant portion of the population would be susceptible to infection should H2 influenza viruses reemerge. H2 influenza viruses continue to circulate in avian reservoirs worldwide, and these reservoirs are a potential source from which these viruses could emerge. Three reassortant cold-adapted (ca) H2 pandemic influenza vaccine candidates with hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) genes derived from the wild...

  4. A Coordinated Approach to Communicating Pediatric-Related Information on Pandemic Influenza at the Community Level

    HCTT CHE

    2009-12-16

    The purpose of this document is to provide a suggested approach, based on input from pediatric stakeholders, to communicating pediatric-related information on pandemic influenza at the community level in a step-by-step manner.

  5. Role of combination antiviral therapy in pandemic influenza and stockpiling implications

    Tsiodras, Sotirios; Mooney, John D; Hatzakis, Angelos

    2007-01-01

    It is impossible to predict which drugs will be effective against a new pandemic strain of influenza. Sotirios Tsiodras and colleagues argue that failure to stockpile both major classes of antiviral drugs could prove costly

  6. Simulation to assess the efficacy of US airport entry scrreening of passengers for pandemic influenza

    Mcmahon, Benjamin [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    We present our methodology and stochastic discrete-event simulation developed to model the screening of passengers for pandemic influenza at the US port-of-entry airports. Our model uniquely combines epidemiology modelling, evolving infected states and conditions of passengers over time, and operational considerations of screening in a single simulation. The simulation begins with international aircraft arrivals to the US. Passengers are then randomly assigned to one of three states -- not infected, infected with pandemic influenza and infected with other respiratory illness. Passengers then pass through various screening layers (i.e. pre-departure screening, en route screening, primary screening and secondary screening) and ultimately exit the system. We track the status of each passenger over time, with a special emphasis on false negatives (i.e. passengers infected with pandemic influenza, but are not identified as such) as these passengers pose a significant threat as they could unknowingly spread the pandemic influenza virus throughout our nation.

  7. Generation and Characterization of Recombinant Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1) Viruses Resistant to Neuraminidase Inhibitors

    Pizzorno, Andrés; Bouhy, Xavier; Abed, Yacine; Boivin, Guy

    2011-01-01

    Background. Neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) play a key role in the management of influenza epidemics and pandemics. Given the novel pandemic influenza A(H1N1) (pH1N1) virus and the restricted number of approved anti-influenza drugs, evaluation of potential drug-resistant variants is of high priority.

  8. A model-based economic analysis of pre-pandemic influenza vaccination cost-effectiveness

    Halder, Nilimesh; Joel K Kelso; George J Milne

    2014-01-01

    Background A vaccine matched to a newly emerged pandemic influenza virus would require a production time of at least 6 months with current proven techniques, and so could only be used reactively after the peak of the pandemic. A pre-pandemic vaccine, although probably having lower efficacy, could be produced and used pre-emptively. While several previous studies have investigated the cost effectiveness of pre-emptive vaccination strategies, they have not been directly compared to realistic re...

  9. Modeling the worldwide spread of pandemic influenza: baseline case and containment interventions.

    Vittoria Colizza; Alain Barrat; Marc Barthelemy; Alain-Jacques Valleron; Alessandro Vespignani

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus, which is now widespread in Southeast Asia and which diffused recently in some areas of the Balkans region and Western Europe, has raised a public alert toward the potential occurrence of a new severe influenza pandemic. Here we study the worldwide spread of a pandemic and its possible containment at a global level taking into account all available information on air travel. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We studied a metapopulation stochast...

  10. Prior Population Immunity Reduces the Expected Impact of CTL-Inducing Vaccines for Pandemic Influenza Control

    Bolton, Kirsty J.; McCaw, James M.; Brown, Lorena; Jackson, David; Kedzierska, Katherine; McVernon, Jodie

    2015-01-01

    Vaccines that trigger an influenza-specific cytotoxic T cell (CTL) response may aid pandemic control by limiting the transmission of novel influenza A viruses (IAV). We consider interventions with hypothetical CTL-inducing vaccines in a range of epidemiologically plausible pandemic scenarios. We estimate the achievable reduction in the attack rate, and, by adopting a model linking epidemic progression to the emergence of IAV variants, the opportunity for antigenic drift. We demonstrate that C...

  11. Was 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) Mild Among Pregnant Korean Women?

    An, Joon Hwan; Kim, Ha-Na; Choi, Ok-Ja; Kim, Gwang-Sook; Kim, Uh Jin; Jang, Mi Ok; Kang, Seung Ji; Park, Kyung-Hwa; Jung, Sook-In; Kwon, Yong Soo; Jang, Hee-Chang

    2013-01-01

    Clinical and laboratory data from Western countries suggest that pregnant women are at an increased risk for severe illness and complications associated with 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1). However, previous data among Korean women suggested a less severe outcome. In this study performed at a single referral center in Korea, rates of admission, pneumonia, intensive care unit admission, and death related to 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) were significantly higher in 33 pregnant women than ...

  12. Time variations in the transmissibility of pandemic influenza in Prussia, Germany, from 1918–19

    Nishiura Hiroshi

    2007-01-01

    Abstract Background Time variations in transmission potential have rarely been examined with regard to pandemic influenza. This paper reanalyzes the temporal distribution of pandemic influenza in Prussia, Germany, from 1918–19 using the daily numbers of deaths, which totaled 8911 from 29 September 1918 to 1 February 1919, and the distribution of the time delay from onset to death in order to estimate the effective reproduction number, Rt, defined as the actual average number of secondary case...

  13. Age-prioritized use of antivirals during an influenza pandemic

    Ajelli Marco

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The WHO suggested that governments stockpile, as part of preparations for the next influenza pandemic, sufficient influenza antiviral drugs to treat approximately 25% of their populations. Our aim is two-fold: first, since in many countries the antiviral stockpile is well below this level, we search for suboptimal strategies based on treatment provided only to an age-dependent fraction of cases. Second, since in some countries the stockpile exceeds the suggested minimum level, we search for optimal strategies for post-exposure prophylactic treatment of close contacts of cases. Methods We used a stochastic, spatially structured individual-based model, considering explicit transmission in households, schools and workplaces, to simulate the spatiotemporal spread of an influenza pandemic in Italy and to evaluate the efficacy of interventions based on age-prioritized use of antivirals. Results Our results show that the antiviral stockpile required for treatment of cases ranges from 10% to 35% of the population for R0 in 1.4 – 3. No suboptimal strategies, based on treatment provided to an age-dependent fraction of cases, were found able to remarkably reduce both clinical attack rate and antiviral drugs needs, though they can contribute to largely reduce the excess mortality. Treatment of all cases coupled with prophylaxis provided to younger individuals is the only intervention resulting in a significant reduction of the clinical attack rate and requiring a relatively small stockpile of antivirals. Conclusion Our results strongly suggest that governments stockpile sufficient influenza antiviral drugs to treat approximately 25% of their populations, under the assumption that R0 is not much larger than 2. In countries where the number of antiviral stockpiled exceeds the suggested minimum level, providing prophylaxis to younger individuals is an option that could be taken into account in preparedness plans. In countries where the

  14. [Pandemic without drama. Influenza vaccination and Asian flu in Germany].

    Witte, Wilfried

    2013-01-01

    The history of the 1957/58 Asian flu in Germany is systematically presented for the first time. The focus is on flu vaccination, which is discussed as a yardstick of the perception of the pandemic. International expertise on influenza virology was predominantly based in Anglo-Saxon countries. German microbiologists issued no clear recommendation for preventative vaccination until 1960. Instead, quinine was relied upon as the traditional medicinal prophylaxis. Antibiotics were more frequently administered. In East Germany, little fuss was made over the Asian flu. In line with the authorities' social hygiene orientation, vaccination was accepted as a matter of principle. In the Federal Republic and West Berlin, the population rejected the vaccination largely. It was seen as a scandal that many employees were on sick leave because of the flu, thus adversely affecting the economy. PMID:24844113

  15. Cost effectiveness of vaccination against pandemic influenza in European countries : mathematical modelling analysis

    Lugner, A.K.; van Boven, Michiel; de Vries, Robin; Postma, M.J.; Wallinga, J.

    2012-01-01

    Objective To investigate whether a single optimal vaccination strategy exists across countries to deal with a future influenza pandemic by comparing the cost effectiveness of different strategies in various pandemic scenarios for three European countries. Design Economic and epidemic modelling study

  16. Statistical estimates of absenteeism attributable to seasonal and pandemic influenza from the Canadian Labour Force Survey

    Zheng Hui

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background As many respiratory viruses are responsible for influenza like symptoms, accurate measures of the disease burden are not available and estimates are generally based on statistical methods. The objective of this study was to estimate absenteeism rates and hours lost due to seasonal influenza and compare these estimates with estimates of absenteeism attributable to the two H1N1 pandemic waves that occurred in 2009. Methods Key absenteeism variables were extracted from Statistics Canada's monthly labour force survey (LFS. Absenteeism and the proportion of hours lost due to own illness or disability were modelled as a function of trend, seasonality and proxy variables for influenza activity from 1998 to 2009. Results Hours lost due to the H1N1/09 pandemic strain were elevated compared to seasonal influenza, accounting for a loss of 0.2% of potential hours worked annually. In comparison, an estimated 0.08% of hours worked annually were lost due to seasonal influenza illnesses. Absenteeism rates due to influenza were estimated at 12% per year for seasonal influenza over the 1997/98 to 2008/09 seasons, and 13% for the two H1N1/09 pandemic waves. Employees who took time off due to a seasonal influenza infection took an average of 14 hours off. For the pandemic strain, the average absence was 25 hours. Conclusions This study confirms that absenteeism due to seasonal influenza has typically ranged from 5% to 20%, with higher rates associated with multiple circulating strains. Absenteeism rates for the 2009 pandemic were similar to those occurring for seasonal influenza. Employees took more time off due to the pandemic strain than was typical for seasonal influenza.

  17. Genetic characterization of an adapted pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza virus that reveals improved replication rates in human lung epithelial cells.

    Wörmann, Xenia; Lesch, Markus; Welke, Robert-William; Okonechnikov, Konstantin; Abdurishid, Mirshat; Sieben, Christian; Geissner, Andreas; Brinkmann, Volker; Kastner, Markus; Karner, Andreas; Zhu, Rong; Hinterdorfer, Peter; Anish, Chakkumkal; Seeberger, Peter H; Herrmann, Andreas; Meyer, Thomas F; Karlas, Alexander

    2016-05-01

    The 2009 influenza pandemic originated from a swine-origin H1N1 virus, which, although less pathogenic than anticipated, may acquire additional virulence-associated mutations in the future. To estimate the potential risk, we sequentially passaged the isolate A/Hamburg/04/2009 in A549 human lung epithelial cells. After passage 6, we observed a 100-fold increased replication rate. High-throughput sequencing of viral gene segments identified five dominant mutations, whose contribution to the enhanced growth was analyzed by reverse genetics. The increased replication rate was pinpointed to two mutations within the hemagglutinin (HA) gene segment (HA1 D130E, HA2 I91L), near the receptor binding site and the stem domain. The adapted virus also replicated more efficiently in mice in vivo. Enhanced replication rate correlated with increased fusion pH of the HA protein and a decrease in receptor affinity. Our data might be relevant for surveillance of pre-pandemic strains and development of high titer cell culture strains for vaccine production. PMID:26914510

  18. The first pandemic of the 21st century: a review of the 2009 pandemic variant influenza A (H1N1) virus.

    Scalera, Nikole M; Mossad, Sherif B

    2009-09-01

    Swine influenza was first described in the 1918 pandemic and made a resurgence in April 2009 in the form of a triple-reassortant influenza A virus, which is composed of a combination of human, swine, and Eurasian avian strains. As evidenced with previous influenza pandemics, young adults and children aged < 24 years are the population most affected. Definitive diagnosis has largely been limited by the inability of conventional influenza testing to distinguish among influenza A subtypes; however, the surge in pandemic cases clearly emerged at the end of the annual influenza season in the northern hemisphere. The pandemic variant influenza A (H1N1) strain is typically susceptible to oseltamivir and resistant to adamantanes, unlike the 2008 to 2009 seasonal influenza A (H1N1). However, 2 cases of oseltamivir-resistant pandemic-variant influenza A (H1N1) were reported in late August 2009. The full impact of the current pandemic is not yet clear, and further reassortment with the circulating seasonal influenza strains in the upcoming 2009 fall season could potentially lead to acquisition of widespread oseltamivir resistance. Vaccination will become paramount in importance for prevention and public health safety. PMID:19820273

  19. Market implementation of the MVA platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza vaccines: A quantitative key opinion leader analysis

    Ramezanpour, Bahar; Pronker, Esther S.; Kreijtz, Joost H.C.M.; Osterhaus, Albert D.M.E.; Claassen, E.

    2015-01-01

    A quantitative method is presented to rank strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) as a platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza vaccines. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to achieve pairwise comparisons among SWOT factors in order to prioritize them. Key opinion leaders (KOLs) in the influenza vaccine field were interviewed to collect a unique dataset to evaluate the market potential of this platform. The purpose of this study, to evaluate commercial potential of the MVA platform for the development of novel generation pandemic influenza vaccines, is accomplished by using a SWOT and AHP combined analytic method. Application of the SWOT–AHP model indicates that its strengths are considered more important by KOLs than its weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. Particularly, the inherent immunogenicity capability of MVA without the requirement of an adjuvant is the most important factor to increase commercial attractiveness of this platform. Concerns regarding vector vaccines and anti-vector immunity are considered its most important weakness, which might lower public health value of this platform. Furthermore, evaluation of the results of this study emphasizes equally important role that threats and opportunities of this platform play. This study further highlights unmet needs in the influenza vaccine market, which could be addressed by the implementation of the MVA platform. Broad use of MVA in clinical trials shows great promise for this vector as vaccine platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza and threats by other respiratory viruses. Moreover, from the results of the clinical trials seem that MVA is particularly attractive for development of vaccines against pathogens for which no, or only insufficiently effective vaccines, are available. PMID:26048779

  20. Market implementation of the MVA platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza vaccines: A quantitative key opinion leader analysis.

    Ramezanpour, Bahar; Pronker, Esther S; Kreijtz, Joost H C M; Osterhaus, Albert D M E; Claassen, E

    2015-08-20

    A quantitative method is presented to rank strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) as a platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza vaccines. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to achieve pairwise comparisons among SWOT factors in order to prioritize them. Key opinion leaders (KOLs) in the influenza vaccine field were interviewed to collect a unique dataset to evaluate the market potential of this platform. The purpose of this study, to evaluate commercial potential of the MVA platform for the development of novel generation pandemic influenza vaccines, is accomplished by using a SWOT and AHP combined analytic method. Application of the SWOT-AHP model indicates that its strengths are considered more important by KOLs than its weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. Particularly, the inherent immunogenicity capability of MVA without the requirement of an adjuvant is the most important factor to increase commercial attractiveness of this platform. Concerns regarding vector vaccines and anti-vector immunity are considered its most important weakness, which might lower public health value of this platform. Furthermore, evaluation of the results of this study emphasizes equally important role that threats and opportunities of this platform play. This study further highlights unmet needs in the influenza vaccine market, which could be addressed by the implementation of the MVA platform. Broad use of MVA in clinical trials shows great promise for this vector as vaccine platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza and threats by other respiratory viruses. Moreover, from the results of the clinical trials seem that MVA is particularly attractive for development of vaccines against pathogens for which no, or only insufficiently effective vaccines, are available. PMID:26048779

  1. Influenza mortality in the United States, 2009 pandemic: burden, timing and age distribution.

    Ann M Nguyen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In April 2009, the most recent pandemic of influenza A began. We present the first estimates of pandemic mortality based on the newly-released final data on deaths in 2009 and 2010 in the United States. METHODS: We obtained data on influenza and pneumonia deaths from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS. Age- and sex-specific death rates, and age-standardized death rates, were calculated. Using negative binomial Serfling-type methods, excess mortality was calculated separately by sex and age groups. RESULTS: In many age groups, observed pneumonia and influenza cause-specific mortality rates in October and November 2009 broke month-specific records since 1959 when the current series of detailed US mortality data began. Compared to the typical pattern of seasonal flu deaths, the 2009 pandemic age-specific mortality, as well as influenza-attributable (excess mortality, skewed much younger. We estimate 2,634 excess pneumonia and influenza deaths in 2009-10; the excess death rate in 2009 was 0.79 per 100,000. CONCLUSIONS: Pandemic influenza mortality skews younger than seasonal influenza. This can be explained by a protective effect due to antigenic cycling. When older cohorts have been previously exposed to a similar antigen, immune memory results in lower death rates at older ages. Age-targeted vaccination of younger people should be considered in future pandemics.

  2. The investigation of Risk factors of influenza pandemic H1N1

    koorosh Holakooyi Naeini

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Influenza pandemic H1N1 is an acute respiratory infectious disease that is combination of two types of influenza virus type A (H1N1. This study aimed to identify risk factors affecting influenza pandemic H1N1. Methods: In this case-control study, the cases were 18 positive cases of pandemic influenza H1N1 and the controls were the patients who were admitted during the same time as the cases to sections of Orthopedics, Urology, Surgery and Women of the same hospital for reasons other than influenza. The data were collected through a form by two experienced nurses and then were fed into SPSS, and were analyzed using independent T-test and chi-square. Results: A significant relationship was observed between pandemic H1N1 influenza infection and a history of domestic travel, contact with confirmed patients, respiratory diseases, and diabetes (P0.05. Conclusion: People with underlying diseases, especially respiratory diseases, diabetes, heart disease and a secondary infection and cardiovascular disease most likely are susceptible to influenza pandemic H1N1.

  3. A monoclonal antibody-based ELISA for differential diagnosis of 2009 pandemic H1N1

    The swine-origin 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus (pdmH1N1) is genetically related to North American swine H1 influenza viruses and unrelated to human seasonal H1 viruses. Currently, specific diagnosis of pdmH1N1 relies on RT-PCR. In order to develop an assay that does not rely in amplification of the viral...

  4. Preparedness of Hospitals in the Republic of Ireland for an Influenza Pandemic, an Infection Control Perspective

    Reidy, Mary; Ryan, Fiona; Hogan, Dervla; Lacey, Sean; Buckley, Claire M.

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: When an influenza pandemic occurs most of the population is susceptible and attack rates can range as high as 40–50 %. The most important failure in pandemic planning is the lack of standards or guidelines regarding what it means to be ‘prepared’. The aim of this study was to assess the preparedness of acute hospitals in the Republic of Ireland for an influenza pandemic from an infection control perspective. METHODS: This was a cross sectional study involving a questionnaire compl...

  5. Pandemic H1N1 influenza: zoonoses are a two-way street

    Influenza is a zoonotic viral disease representing a worldwide health and economic threat to humans and animals. Swine influenza was first recognized clinically in pigs in the Midwestern United States in 1918 concurrent with the Spanish flu human pandemic. Since the first report that flu was caused ...

  6. Absence of Pandemic H1N1 Influenza A Virus in Fresh Pork

    Pigs experimentally infected with pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza A virus developed respiratory disease; however, there was no evidence for systemic disease to suggest that pork from pigs infected with H1N1 influenza would contain infectious virus. These findings support the WHO recommendation that po...

  7. Acute Respiratory Infections in the Context of the Influenza A (H1N1 Pandemic

    Hilda María Delgado Acosta

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: acute respiratory infections are among the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Objective: to characterize acute respiratory infections in the context of the influenza pandemic in Cienfuegos province. Methods: A case series study including 844 inpatients diagnosed with influenza-like illness, 806 suspected cases and 38 confirmed cases of pandemic influenza, was conducted. An analysis of the acute respiratory infections was performed, describing the pandemic in space and time. Suspected and confirmed cases were compared according to general variables, risk factors and interesting clinical features. Virus isolation and classification of confirmed cases considering source of infection and progress over time were showed. Data was collected from the Statistics Department of the Provincial Hygiene and Epidemiology Center and the inpatient database. Percentages, rates, the mean, standard deviation and Chi-square test with a 5 % margin of error were used.Results: acute respiratory infections morbidity increased since 2008, largely because of the impact of the pandemic and the increased clinical and epidemiological surveillance. Its association with risk factors such as pregnancy, chronic diseases and traveling abroad was demonstrated. Circulation of the pandemic influenza virus with displacement of seasonal viruses and prevalence of indigenous cases were observed. Conclusions: the characteristics of pandemic influenza in the province do not differ greatly from those described nationally and globally.

  8. Possible Increased Pathogenicity of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza Virus upon Reassortment

    Schrauwen, Eefje J. A.; Herfst, Sander; Chutinimitkul, Salin; Bestebroer, Theo M.; Rimmelzwaan, Guus F.; Osterhaus, Albert D. M. E.; Kuiken, Thijs; Fouchier, Ron A M

    2011-01-01

    Since emergence of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus in April 2009, three influenza A viruses—seasonal (H3N2), seasonal (H1N1), and pandemic (H1N1) 2009—have circulated in humans. Genetic reassortment between these viruses could result in enhanced pathogenicity. We compared 4 reassortant viruses with favorable in vitro replication properties with the wild-type pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus with respect to replication kinetics in vitro and pathogenicity and transmission in ferrets. Pandemic (H1N1) 2...

  9. Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 with neurological manifestations, a case series

    Noriega, Luis Miguel; Verdugo, Renato J.; Araos, Rafael; Munita, José Manuel; Díaz, Violeta; Marcotti, Alejandra; Perez, Jorge; Gonzalez, Patricia; Thompson, Luis; Canals, Magdalena; Hoppe, Arnold; Mounts, Anthony W.; Vial, Pablo A.

    2010-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Noriega et al. (2010) Pandemic influenza a (H1N1) 2009 with neurological manifestations, a case series. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 4(3), 117–120. Objectives  Describe a series of atypical presentations of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009. Methods  Description of case series using hospital records. Results  Six patients aged 1 to 65 years with confirmed pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 infection presented with neurological complications within 2 to 5 days after the first signs of influenza‐like illness. All six were admitted with seizures or altered mental status. No abnormalities were found in brain scans or cerebral spinal fluid studies of any of the six. All were discharged without sequelae within days of admission. Conclusions  This is only the second report of pandemic influenza presenting with neurological manifestations. Clinicians caring for patients when pandemic influenza is prevalent in their communities should maintain a high level of awareness of the potential atypical presentations with which this disease can appear. PMID:20409207

  10. Are we prepared to help low-resource communities cope with a severe influenza pandemic?

    Starbuck, Eric S; von Bernuth, Rudolph; Bolles, Kathryn; Koepsell, Jeanne

    2013-11-01

    Recent research involving lab-modified H5N1 influenza viruses with increased transmissibility and the ongoing evolution of the virus in nature should remind us of the continuing importance of preparedness for a severe influenza pandemic. Current vaccine technology and antiviral supply remain inadequate, and in a severe pandemic, most low-resource communities will fail to receive adequate medical supplies. However, with suitable guidance, these communities can take appropriate actions without substantial outside resources to reduce influenza transmission and care for the ill. Such guidance should be completed, and support provided to developing countries to adapt it for their settings and prepare for implementation. PMID:23145978

  11. The human potential of a recombinant pandemic influenza vaccine produced in tobacco plants

    Jul-Larsen, Åsne; Madhun, Abdullah S.; Brokstad, Karl A.; Montomoli, Emanuele; Yusibov, Vidadi; Cox, Rebecca J.

    2012-01-01

    Rapid production of influenza vaccine antigen is an important challenge when a new pandemic occurs. Production of recombinant antigens in plants is a quick, cost effective and up scalable new strategy for influenza vaccine production. In this study, we have characterized a recombinant influenza haemagglutinin antigen (HAC1) that was derived from the 2009 pandemic H1N1 (pdmH1N1) virus and expressed in tobacco plants. Volunteers vaccinated with the 2009 pdmH1N1 oil-in-water adjuvanted vaccine p...

  12. Pandemic influenza in Australia: Using telephone surveys to measure perceptions of threat and willingness to comply

    Jorm Louisa

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Baseline data is necessary for monitoring how a population perceives the threat of pandemic influenza, and perceives how it would behave in the event of pandemic influenza. Our aim was to develop a module of questions for use in telephone health surveys on perceptions of threat of pandemic influenza, and on preparedness to comply with specific public health behaviours in the event of pandemic influenza. Methods A module of questions was developed and field tested on 192 adults using the New South Wales Department of Health's in-house Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI facility. The questions were then modified and re field tested on 202 adults. The module was then incorporated into the New South Wales Population Health Survey in the first quarter of 2007. A representative sample of 2,081 adults completed the module. Their responses were weighted against the state population. Results The reliability of the questions was acceptable with kappa ranging between 0.25 and 0.51. Overall 14.9% of the state population thought pandemic influenza was very or extremely likely to occur; 45.5% were very or extremely concerned that they or their family would be affected by pandemic influenza if it occurred; and 23.8% had made some level of change to the way they live their life because of the possibility of pandemic influenza. In the event of pandemic influenza, the majority of the population were willing to: be vaccinated (75.4%, be isolated (70.2%, and wear a face mask (59.9%. People with higher levels of threat perception are significantly more likely to be willing to comply with specific public health behaviours. Conclusion While only 14.9% of the state population thought pandemic influenza was very or extremely likely to occur, a significantly higher proportion were concerned for self and family should a pandemic actually occur. The baseline data collected in this survey will be useful for monitoring changes over time in the

  13. Pandemic Influenza: Implications for Preparation and Delivery of Critical Care Services

    Manuell, Mary-Elise; Co, Mary Dawn T.; Ellison, Richard T.

    2011-01-01

    In a five week span during the 1918 influenza A pandemic, more than 2,000 patients were admitted to Cook County Hospital in Chicago with a diagnosis of either influenza or pneumonia; 642 patients, approximately 31% of those admitted, died with deaths occurring predominantly in patients twenty-five to thirty years of age.1 This review summarizes basic information on the biology, epidemiology, control, treatment and prevention of influenza overall, and then addresses the poten...

  14. Gradual changes in the age distribution of excess deaths in the years following the 1918 influenza pandemic in Copenhagen

    Saglanmak, Neslihan; Andreasen, Viggo; Simonsen, Lone;

    2011-01-01

    Background: The 1918 influenza pandemic was associated with an unusual age pattern of mortality, with most deaths occurring among young adults. Few studies have addressed changes in the age distribution for influenza-related mortality in the pre-pandemic and post-pandemic period, which has...... implications for pandemic preparedness. In the present paper, we analyse the age patterns of influenza-related excess mortality in the decades before and after the 1918 pandemic, using detailed historic surveillance data from Copenhagen. Methods: Weekly age-specific rates of respiratory mortality and influenza......-like-illnesses were compiled for 1904–1937. Seasonal excess rates of morbidity and mortality attributable to influenza were calculated using a seasonal regression approach. To characterize the age patterns of influenza-related deaths in individual seasons, we used two rate ratio (RR) measures representing ratios of...

  15. Analysis of suspected adverse reactions following immunization against pandemic influenza

    Petrović Vladimir

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The surveillance on adverse reaction following immunization was aimed at recording all adverse events possibly related with vaccines. During the implementation of immunization strategy against pandemic influenza A(H1N1 in 2009, the post-marketing comprehensive surveillance was suggested to be conducted due to limited clinical experience in applying this particular vaccine and because of the fact that some vaccines had been licensed only on the basis of the data regarding their quality. Material and Methods. The passive surveillance on adverse events following immunization was conducted simultaneously with immunization campaign against pandemic influenza in the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina. Reporting of adverse events was conducted by health care service through a specially designed questionnaire Results. In the period from December 17th 2009 to February 7th 2010, of the total number of 55720 people who were vaccinated, 50433 received one dose and 5287 received two doses of vaccine. The total number of doses administered was 61007. During the observed period, some adverse reactions were recorded in 37 people, the rate of occurrence of adverse reactions being 6.6 per 10.000 vaccinated. Since the majority of patients had several symptoms and signs, the number of recorded clinical manifestations was much higher (140 than the number of patients with reactions. The dominant symptoms and signs were fever (51.4%, weakness/fatigue (48.6%, headache (40.5% and myalgia (31.5%. The reactions in the majority of patients were mild and transient. Only two patients sought medical care and one was hospitalized. Since the immunization coverage was very small, it was not possible to record rare adverse events, whose expected incidence is, anyway, very low. Conclusion. Surveillance on adverse reaction following immunization represents an important component of immunization program, especially when new vaccines are introduced. Therefore, this form

  16. Pandemia de influenza: la respuesta de México Influenza pandemic: Mexico's response

    Pablo Kuri-Morales

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available En 1992 apareció en el sureste asiático un nuevo tipo de virus de la influenza, el cual ha ocasionado hasta la fecha más de 120 casos y un poco más de 60 defunciones en humanos en Camboya, Vietnam, Indonesia y Tailandia. Esta situación es considerada por los expertos como la probable génesis de una nueva pandemia de influenza, lo que podría traer graves consecuencias para la salud de la población, así como para la economía y el comercio mundial. Por lo anterior, la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS ha instado a los países miembros a desarrollar planes de preparación y respuesta para hacer frente a esta eventualidad. En el marco del Comité Nacional para la Seguridad en Salud, México ha diseñado el Plan Nacional de Preparación y Respuesta ante una Pandemia de Influenza con objeto de proteger a la población mediante acciones efectivas y oportunas. El Plan utiliza una escala de riesgo y define cinco líneas de acción: Coordinación, Vigilancia Epidemiológica, Atención Médica, Difusión y Movilización Social, y Reserva Estratégica. Si bien es imposible predecir cuándo se presentará la próxima pandemia y su impacto, es fundamental que las autoridades de salud nacionales, estatales y locales establezcan los mecanismos para poner en marcha los componentes del Plan en forma oportuna y garantizar con ello la salud de la población en caso de influenza pandémica.In 1992, a new type of influenza virus appeared in Southeast Asia. This new strain has caused to date, more than 120 cases and over 60 deaths in Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand. This situation is seen by the experts as the possible genesis of a new influenza pandemic with the corresponding negative effects on the health of the population, international commerce and world economy. In order to face the coming challenge, the World Health Organization (WHO has asked member countries to develop national preparedness and response plans for an influenza pandemic

  17. Anti-Influenza Activity of Marchantins, Macrocyclic Bisbibenzyls Contained in Liverworts

    Yuma Iwai; Kouki Murakami; Yasuyuki Gomi; Toshihiro Hashimoto; Yoshinori Asakawa; Yoshinobu Okuno; Toyokazu Ishikawa; Dai Hatakeyama; Noriko Echigo; Takashi Kuzuhara

    2011-01-01

    The H1N1 influenza A virus of swine-origin caused pandemics throughout the world in 2009 and the highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus has also caused epidemics in Southeast Asia in recent years. The threat of influenza A thus remains a serious global health issue and novel drugs that target these viruses are highly desirable. Influenza A possesses an endonuclease within its RNA polymerase which comprises PA, PB1 and PB2 subunits. To identify potential new anti-influenza compounds in o...

  18. Early-warning signals for an outbreak of the influenza pandemic

    Over the course of human history, influenza pandemics have been seen as major disasters, so studies on the influenza virus have become an important issue for many experts and scholars. Comprehensive research has been performed over the years on the biological properties, chemical characteristics, external environmental factors and other aspects of the virus, and some results have been achieved. Based on the chaos game representation walk model, this paper uses the time series analysis method to study the DNA sequences of the influenza virus from 1913 to 2010, and works out the early-warning signals indicator value for the outbreak of an influenza pandemic. The variances in the CGR walk sequences for the pandemic years (or + −1 to 2 years) are significantly higher than those for the adjacent years, while those in the non-pandemic years are usually smaller. In this way we can provide an influenza early-warning mechanism so that people can take precautions and be well prepared prior to a pandemic. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  19. Influenza-related deaths--available methods for estimating numbers and detecting patterns for seasonal and pandemic influenza in Europe.

    Nicoll, A; Ciancio, B C; Lopez Chavarrias, V; Mølbak, K; Pebody, R; Pedzinski, B; Penttinen, P; van der Sande, M; Snacken, R; Van Kerkhove, M D

    2012-01-01

    Two methodologies are used for describing and estimating influenza-related mortality: Individual-based methods, which use death certification and laboratory diagnosis and predominately determine patterns and risk factors for mortality, and population-based methods, which use statistical and modelling techniques to estimate numbers of premature deaths. The total numbers of deaths generated from the two methods cannot be compared. The former are prone to underestimation, especially when identifying influenza-related deaths in older people. The latter are cruder and have to allow for confounding factors, notably other seasonal infections and climate effects. There is no routine system estimating overall European influenza-related premature mortality, apart from a pilot system EuroMOMO. It is not possible at present to estimate the overall influenza mortality due to the 2009 influenza pandemic in Europe, and the totals based on individual deaths are a minimum estimate. However, the pattern of mortality differed considerably between the 2009 pandemic in Europe and the interpandemic period 1970 to 2008, with pandemic deaths in 2009 occurring in younger and healthier persons. Common methods should be agreed to estimate influenza-related mortality at national level in Europe, and individual surveillance should be instituted for influenza-related deaths in key groups such as pregnant women and children. PMID:22587958

  20. Negotiating equitable access to influenza vaccines: global health diplomacy and the controversies surrounding avian influenza H5N1 and pandemic influenza H1N1.

    Fidler, David P.

    2010-01-01

    As part of the PLoS Medicine series on Global Health Diplomacy, David Fidler provides a case study of the difficult negotiations to increase equitable access to vaccines for highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) and pandemic 2009 influenza A (H1N1).

  1. Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in households with young children

    Peltola, Ville; Teros‐Jaakkola, Tamara; Rulli, Maris; Toivonen, Laura; Broberg, Eeva; Waris, Matti; Mertsola, Jussi

    2011-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Peltola et al. (2011) Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in households with young children. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 6(3), e21–e24. Abstract Background  Influenza viruses may cause a severe infection in infants and young children. The transmission patterns of pandemic 2009 influenza A (H1N1) within households with young children are poorly characterized. Methods  Household members of six children younger than 1·5 years with documented 2009 influenza A (H1N1) infection were studied by daily symptom diaries and serial parent‐collected nasal swab samples for detection of influenza A by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT‐PCR) assay. Results  Laboratory‐confirmed, symptomatic influenza was documented in 11 of 15 household contacts of young children with pandemic influenza (73%; 95% CI, 48–99). In five contact cases symptoms started earlier, in three cases on the same day, and in three cases after the onset of symptoms in the youngest child. The first case with influenza A (H1N1) within the household was an elder sibling in two households, father in two households, the youngest child in one household, and the youngest child at the same time with a sibling in one household. The median copy number of influenza virus was higher in children than in adults (4·2 × 107 versus 4·9 × 104, P = 0·02). Conclusions  This study demonstrates the feasibility of nasal swab sampling by parents in investigation of household transmission of influenza. The results support influenza vaccination of all household contacts of young children. PMID:21951638

  2. Influenza Pandemic: Gaps in Pandemic Planning and Preparedness Need to Be Addressed. Testimony before the Committee on Homeland Security, House of Representatives. GAO-09-909T

    Steinhardt, Bernice

    2009-01-01

    As the current H1N1 outbreak underscores, an influenza pandemic remains a real threat to our nation. Over the past 3 years, the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) conducted a body of work, consisting of 12 reports and 4 testimonies, to help the nation better prepare for a possible pandemic. In February 2009, GAO synthesized the results of…

  3. Theoretical and practical exploration of vision building in human influenza pandemic prevention & control

    PengKong; YanKong; XuJiang; XiaohuaWang

    2010-01-01

    This article introduced the vision building concept about human influenza pandemic prevention and control. Different visions were built by creating different shapes of building blocks which also represented different organizations and physical facilities, respectively. The around-view reflection is required to be developed in the process of building so as to search for the ideal pattern. The correlation of all sectors and systems are established to combine different kinds of things, from one family to another, from communities, towns, counties, cities, rural areas, provinces to the state to handle trivial problems. These training objectives have been successfully accomplished, which has not only enriched the knowledge about prevention and control of influenza pandemic between different departments but also clarified the roles and responsibility. It lays the firm foundation for next cooperation between different departments, and make a bridge for the objective and choice of channel over human influenza pandemic prevention and control.

  4. Non-pharmaceutical public health interventions for pandemic influenza: an evaluation of the evidence base

    Wasserman Jeffrey; Lurie Nicole; Aledort Julia E; Bozzette Samuel A

    2007-01-01

    Abstract Background In an influenza pandemic, the benefit of vaccines and antiviral medications will be constrained by limitations on supplies and effectiveness. Non-pharmaceutical public health interventions will therefore be vital in curtailing disease spread. However, the most comprehensive assessments of the literature to date recognize the generally poor quality of evidence on which to base non-pharmaceutical pandemic planning decisions. In light of the need to prepare for a possible pan...

  5. Cost effectiveness of vaccination against pandemic influenza in European countries: mathematical modelling analysis

    Lugner, A.K.; van Boven, Michiel; de Vries, Robin; Postma, M. J.; Wallinga, J.

    2012-01-01

    Objective To investigate whether a single optimal vaccination strategy exists across countries to deal with a future influenza pandemic by comparing the cost effectiveness of different strategies in various pandemic scenarios for three European countries. Design Economic and epidemic modelling study. Settings General populations in Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. Data sources Country specific patterns of social contact and demographic data. Model An age structured susceptibl...

  6. Responding to Vaccine Safety Signals during Pandemic Influenza: A Modeling Study

    Maro, Judith C.; Fryback, Dennis G.; Lieu, Tracy A; Lee, Grace M.; David B Martin

    2014-01-01

    Background: Managing emerging vaccine safety signals during an influenza pandemic is challenging. Federal regulators must balance vaccine risks against benefits while maintaining public confidence in the public health system. Methods: We developed a multi-criteria decision analysis model to explore regulatory decision-making in the context of emerging vaccine safety signals during a pandemic. We simulated vaccine safety surveillance system capabilities and used an age-structured compartmental...

  7. Adaptation of High-Growth Influenza H5N1 Vaccine Virus in Vero Cells: Implications for Pandemic Preparedness

    Tseng, Yu-Fen; Hu, Alan Yung-Chih; Huang, Mei-Liang; Yeh, Wei-Zhou; Weng, Tsai-Chuan; Chen, Yu-Shuan; Chong, Pele; Lee, Min-Shi

    2011-01-01

    Current egg-based influenza vaccine production technology can't promptly meet the global demand during an influenza pandemic as shown in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Moreover, its manufacturing capacity would be vulnerable during pandemics caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses. Therefore, vaccine production using mammalian cell technology is becoming attractive. Current influenza H5N1 vaccine strain (NIBRG-14), a reassortant virus between A/Vietnam/1194/2004 (H5N1) virus and egg-adap...

  8. Receptor Characterization and Susceptibility of Cotton Rats to Avian and 2009 Pandemic Influenza Virus Strains

    Blanco, Jorge C. G.; Pletneva, Lioubov M; Wan, Hongquan; Araya, Yonas; Angel, Matthew; Oue, Raymonde O.; Sutton, Troy C.; Perez, Daniel R

    2013-01-01

    Animal influenza viruses (AIVs) are a major threat to human health and the source of pandemic influenza. A reliable small-mammal model to study the pathogenesis of infection and for testing vaccines and therapeutics against multiple strains of influenza virus is highly desirable. We show that cotton rats (Sigmodon hispidus) are susceptible to avian and swine influenza viruses. Cotton rats express α2,3-linked sialic acid (SA) and α2,6-linked SA residues in the trachea and α2,6-linked SA residu...

  9. Trends in influenza vaccination coverage in Portugal from 1998 to 2010: effect of major pandemic threats

    Sousa Pinto, Cátia; Nunes, Baltazar; BRANCO, Maria João; Marinho Falcão, José

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Vaccination is the key measure available for prevention of the public health burden of annual influenza epidemics. This article describes national trends in seasonal influenza vaccine (IV) coverage in Portugal from 1998/99 to 2010/11, analyzes progress towards meeting WHO 2010 coverage goals, and addresses the effect of major public health threats of the last 12 years (SARS in 2003/04, influenza A (H5N1) in 2005/06, and the influenza A (H1N1)2009 pandemic) on vaccination trends. ...

  10. Risk factors for influenza among health care workers during 2009 pandemic, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

    Kuster, Stefan P; Coleman, Brenda L.; Raboud, Janet; McNeil, Shelly; De Serres, Gaston; Gubbay, Jonathan; Hatchette, Todd; Katz, Kevin C.; Loeb, Mark; Low, Donald; Mazzulli, Tony; Simor, Andrew; McGeer, Allison J.

    2013-01-01

    This prospective cohort study, performed during the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, was aimed to determine whether adults working in acute care hospitals were at higher risk than other working adults for influenza and to assess risk factors for influenza among health care workers (HCWs). We assessed the risk for influenza among 563 HCWs and 169 non-HCWs using PCR to test nasal swab samples collected during acute respiratory illness; results for 13 (2.2%) HCWs and 7 (4.1%) non-HCWs were posit...

  11. Risk Factors for Influenza among Health Care Workers during 2009 Pandemic, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

    Kuster, Stefan P; Coleman, Brenda L.; Raboud, Janet; McNeil, Shelly; De Serres, Gaston; Gubbay, Jonathan; Hatchette, Todd; Katz, Kevin C.; Loeb, Mark; Low, Donald; Mazzulli, Tony; Simor, Andrew; McGeer, Allison J.; ,

    2013-01-01

    This prospective cohort study, performed during the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, was aimed to determine whether adults working in acute care hospitals were at higher risk than other working adults for influenza and to assess risk factors for influenza among health care workers (HCWs). We assessed the risk for influenza among 563 HCWs and 169 non-HCWs using PCR to test nasal swab samples collected during acute respiratory illness; results for 13 (2.2%) HCWs and 7 (4.1%) non-HCWs were posit...

  12. Adaptive vaccination strategies to mitigate pandemic influenza: Mexico as a case study.

    Gerardo Chowell

    Full Text Available We explore vaccination strategies against pandemic influenza in Mexico using an age-structured transmission model calibrated against local epidemiological data from the Spring 2009 A(H1N1 pandemic.In the context of limited vaccine supplies, we evaluate age-targeted allocation strategies that either prioritize youngest children and persons over 65 years of age, as for seasonal influenza, or adaptively prioritize age groups based on the age patterns of hospitalization and death monitored in real-time during the early stages of the pandemic. Overall the adaptive vaccination strategy outperformed the seasonal influenza vaccination allocation strategy for a wide range of disease and vaccine coverage parameters.This modeling approach could inform policies for Mexico and other countries with similar demographic features and vaccine resources issues, with regard to the mitigation of the S-OIV pandemic. We also discuss logistical issues associated with the implementation of adaptive vaccination strategies in the context of past and future influenza pandemics.

  13. Assessing exposure risks for aquatic organisms posed by Tamiflu use under seasonal influenza and pandemic conditions

    Environmental pollution by anti-influenza drugs is increasingly recognized as a threat to aquatic environments. However, little is known about empirical data on risk effects posed by environmentally relevant concentrations of anti-influenza drug based on recently published ecotoxicological researches in Taiwan. Here we linked ecotoxicology models with an epidemiological scheme to assess exposure risks of aquatic organisms and environmental hazards posed by antiviral oseltamivir (Tamiflu) use in Taiwan. Built on published bioassays, we used probabilistic risk assessment model to estimate potential threats of environmentally relevant hazards on algae, daphnid, and zerbrafish. We found that Tamiflu use was unlikely to pose a significant chronic environmental risk to daphnia and zebrafish during seasonal influenza. However, the chronic environmental risk posed by Tamiflu use during pandemic was alarming. We conclude that no significant risk to algal growth was found during seasonal influenza and high pandemic Tamiflu use. -- Highlights: • Environmentally relevant concentrations of anti-influenza drug have ecotoxicologically important effects. • Tamiflu is unlikely to pose a significant chronic environmental risk during seasonal influenza. • Chronic environmental risk posed by Tamiflu during pandemic is alarming. • Tertiary process in sewage treatment plants is crucial in mitigating Tamiflu exposure risk. -- A probabilistic framework can be used for assessing exposure risks posed by environmentally relevant concentrations of anti-influenza drug in aquatic ecosystems

  14. Comparison between pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza pneumonia and seasonal influenza pneumonia in adults

    We compared 126 cases of seasonal influenza pneumonia (seasonal flu) reported between January, 1996 and March, 2009, with 10 cases of laboratory-confirmed pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus pneumonia (novel flu), based on clinical condition, computed tomography (CT) findings, severity, treatment, and prognosis, to clarify the characteristics of this novel flu. The mean age of subjects was 52.4 years in the novel flu group and 64 years in the seasonal flu group, and novel flu patients were younger than seasonal flu patients. Seasonal flu patients had more underlying diseases than did novel flu patients. The median duration from illness onset to hospitalization was 4 days in both groups. Primary viral pneumonia was present in 70% of novel flu cases and 31% of seasonal flu cases. The proportion of primary virus pneumonia was higher in novel flu patients, and the disease severity of the seasonal flu group was more severe than that of the novel flu group. White blood cell and lymphocyte counts were lower in novel flu patients, and chest CT images showed bilateral shadows and pure ground-glass opacities more frequently in the novel flu cases. There were no differences in treatment, number of days required for the fever to subside, or mortality between the groups. (author)

  15. Modeling the effects of drug resistant influenza virus in a pandemic

    Koch Daniel

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Neuraminidase inhibitors (NI play a major role in plans to mitigate future influenza pandemics. Modeling studies suggested that a pandemic may be contained at the source by early treatment and prophylaxis with antiviral drugs. Here, we examine the influence of NI resistant influenza strains on an influenza pandemic. We extend the freely available deterministic simulation program InfluSim to incorporate importations of resistant infections and the emergence of de novo resistance. The epidemic with the fully drug sensitive strain leads to a cumulative number of 19,500 outpatients and 258 hospitalizations, respectively, per 100,000 inhabitants. Development of de novo resistance alone increases the total number of outpatients by about 6% and hospitalizations by about 21%. If a resistant infection is introduced into the population after three weeks, the outcome dramatically deteriorates. Wide-spread use of NI treatment makes it highly likely that the resistant strain will spread if its fitness is high. This situation is further aggravated if a resistant virus is imported into a country in the early phase of an outbreak. As NI-resistant influenza infections with high fitness and pathogenicity have just been observed, the emergence of drug resistance in treated populations and the transmission of drug resistant strains is an important public health concern for seasonal and pandemic influenza.

  16. Non-pharmaceutical public health interventions for pandemic influenza: an evaluation of the evidence base

    Wasserman Jeffrey

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In an influenza pandemic, the benefit of vaccines and antiviral medications will be constrained by limitations on supplies and effectiveness. Non-pharmaceutical public health interventions will therefore be vital in curtailing disease spread. However, the most comprehensive assessments of the literature to date recognize the generally poor quality of evidence on which to base non-pharmaceutical pandemic planning decisions. In light of the need to prepare for a possible pandemic despite concerns about the poor quality of the literature, combining available evidence with expert opinion about the relative merits of non-pharmaceutical interventions for pandemic influenza may lead to a more informed and widely accepted set of recommendations. We evaluated the evidence base for non-pharmaceutical public health interventions. Then, based on the collective evidence, we identified a set of recommendations for and against interventions that are specific to both the setting in which an intervention may be used and the pandemic phase, and which can be used by policymakers to prepare for a pandemic until scientific evidence can definitively respond to planners' needs. Methods Building on reviews of past pandemics and recent historical inquiries, we evaluated the relative merits of non-pharmaceutical interventions by combining available evidence from the literature with qualitative and quantitative expert opinion. Specifically, we reviewed the recent scientific literature regarding the prevention of human-to-human transmission of pandemic influenza, convened a meeting of experts from multiple disciplines, and elicited expert recommendation about the use of non-pharmaceutical public health interventions in a variety of settings (healthcare facilities; community-based institutions; private households and pandemic phases (no pandemic; no US pandemic; early localized US pandemic; advanced US pandemic. Results The literature contained a dearth

  17. Searching of Main Cause Leading to Severe Influenza A Virus Mutations and Consequently to Influenza Pandemics/Epidemics

    Guang Wu

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The unpredictable mutations in the proteins from influenza A virus lead to the great difficulty in prevention of possible outbreak of bird flu and pandemic/epidemic of influenza. This unpredictability is due to the fact that we know little about the causes that lead to the mutations. In three of our recent studies on the hemagglutinins from influenza A virus, we unintentionally noticed the periodicity of mutations in hemagglutinins similar to the periodicity of sunspot. We calculated the amino-acid pair predictability and amino-acid distribution rank, which are developed by us over last several years and can numerically present the evolution of proteins in question, of 1217 full-length hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses. We then used the fast Fourier transform to determine the periodicity of mutations in the hemagglutinins. We compare the periodicities of mutations in influenza A virus hemagglutinins with those of solar and galactic cosmic rays and find a main periodicity of the mutations identical to that of sunspot and neutron rate (11 years/circle. Then we plot the sunspot number with respect to the historical pandemics/epidemics/non-pandemic new strains over last three centuries and compare the recorded sunspots with the historical pandemics before 1700. Both show a good agreement between sunspot activity and influenza related events. As the histories of Sun and galaxy are incomparably much longer than the history of influenza virus, the only logical deduction is that the hemagglutinin periodicities, which are identical to the periodicities of solar and galactic cosmic rays, are attribute to the solar and galactic activity. As the hemagglutinin is a sample of influenza A virus, we can logically deduce the role of migratory wild birds on the outbreak of bird flu and influenza, that is, cosmic rays are heading towards the polar regions, where more mutations occur in influenza A virus either within the wild birds or in their living

  18. Age distribution of cases of 2009 (H1N1 pandemic influenza in comparison with seasonal influenza.

    Drosos E Karageorgopoulos

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Several aspects of the epidemiology of 2009 (H1N1 pandemic influenza have not been accurately determined. We sought to study whether the age distribution of cases differs in comparison with seasonal influenza. METHODS: We searched for official, publicly available data through the internet from different countries worldwide on the age distribution of cases of influenza during the 2009 (H1N1 pandemic influenza period and most recent seasonal influenza periods. Data had to be recorded through the same surveillance system for both compared periods. RESULTS: For 2009 pandemic influenza versus recent influenza seasons, in USA, visits for influenza-like illness to sentinel providers were more likely to involve the age groups of 5-24, 25-64 and 0-4 years compared with the reference group of >64 years [odds ratio (OR (95% confidence interval (CI: 2.43 (2.39-2.47, 1.66 (1.64-1.69, and 1.51 (1.48-1.54, respectively]. Pediatric deaths were less likely in the age groups of 2-4 and 65 years [OR (95% CI: 7.19 (6.67-7.75, 5.33 (4.90-5.79, 5.04 (4.70-5.41, 3.12 (2.89-3.36 and 1.89 (1.75-2.05, respectively]. In New Zealand, consultations for influenza-like illness by sentinel providers were more likely in the age groups of 65 years [OR (95% CI: 2.38 (1.74-3.26, 1.99 (1.62-2.45, 1.57 (1.30-1.89, 1.57 (1.30-1.88, 1.40 (1.17-1.69 and 1.39 (1.14-1.70, respectively]. CONCLUSIONS: The greatest increase in influenza cases during 2009 (H1N1 pandemic influenza period, in comparison with most recent seasonal influenza periods, was seen for school-aged children, adolescents, and younger adults.

  19. Oseltamivir use and outcomes during the 2009 influenza A H1N1 pandemic in Taiwan

    Liu, Chia-Hung; Wang, Jiun-Ling; Su, Chia-Ping; Chuang, Jen-Hsiang; Chang, Chia-Hsuin; Lai, Mei-Shu

    2013-01-01

    Background The Taiwan CDC provided free oseltamivir to all patients with influenza infections confirmed by rapid testing or who had clinical warning symptoms during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in Taiwan. However, oseltamivir utilization patterns, cost, and outcomes among oseltamivir-treated patients remained unclear. Method A population-level, observational cohort study was conducted using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Database from January to December 2009 to describe the use of ...

  20. Pandemic 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Infection in Children

    Taner Özgür; Enes Salı; Mustafa Turhan Hacımustafaoğlu; Solmaz Çelebi; Deniz Çakır

    2011-01-01

    Introduction: The aim of this study is to share our experience of sixty-eight pediatric hospitalizations associated with influenza-like illness and pneumonia between November, 2009 and December, 2009.Materials and Methods: Clinical signs and symptoms, laboratory and radiological results, length of stay in hospital and intensive care unit, treatments and complications were compared in laboratory confirmed pandemic influenza A positive and negative cases.Results: There was no significant differ...

  1. Modeling influenza epidemics and pandemics: insights into the future of swine flu (H1N1

    Blower Sally

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Here we present a review of the literature of influenza modeling studies, and discuss how these models can provide insights into the future of the currently circulating novel strain of influenza A (H1N1, formerly known as swine flu. We discuss how the feasibility of controlling an epidemic critically depends on the value of the Basic Reproduction Number (R0. The R0 for novel influenza A (H1N1 has recently been estimated to be between 1.4 and 1.6. This value is below values of R0 estimated for the 1918–1919 pandemic strain (mean R0~2: range 1.4 to 2.8 and is comparable to R0 values estimated for seasonal strains of influenza (mean R0 1.3: range 0.9 to 2.1. By reviewing results from previous modeling studies we conclude it is theoretically possible that a pandemic of H1N1 could be contained. However it may not be feasible, even in resource-rich countries, to achieve the necessary levels of vaccination and treatment for control. As a recent modeling study has shown, a global cooperative strategy will be essential in order to control a pandemic. This strategy will require resource-rich countries to share their vaccines and antivirals with resource-constrained and resource-poor countries. We conclude our review by discussing the necessity of developing new biologically complex models. We suggest that these models should simultaneously track the transmission dynamics of multiple strains of influenza in bird, pig and human populations. Such models could be critical for identifying effective new interventions, and informing pandemic preparedness planning. Finally, we show that by modeling cross-species transmission it may be possible to predict the emergence of pandemic strains of influenza.

  2. Evaluation of healthcare providers’ approach towards pandemic influenza and their vaccination ratio

    Ali Asan

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. Pandemic influenza is a contagious disease caused by the new pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus, originated from the genetic combination of human, pig and avian influenza viruses. Our research aimed to determine the level of pandemic influenza vaccination in healthcare providers and the factors influencing this level. Methods. Doctors, midwives and nurses working in primary, secondary and tertiary health institutions in Denizli established the universe of the research. Four nurses visited these health institutions on five workdays between the 4th and 8th of April 2011, informed the healthcare providers that participation to the research was voluntary and handed over data collection forms in the institutions visited. Then, these data collection forms were collected by the same nurses. Research data were analyzed with SPSS package program. Frequency, percentage, chi-square and logistic regression analyses were used in the evaluation. Results. 44.7% of the healthcare providers participating in the study stated that they had been vaccinated with pandemic influenza vaccine. When factors effecting the vaccination decision with pandemic influenza vaccine of the individuals participating the study was evaluated; statistically significant difference between vaccination and occupation (p=0.001, sex (p=0.001, and age (p=0.026 was detected. The proportion of doctors, males and individuals older than 40 years was higher among the vaccinated professionals. Conclusions. It is important to make announcements about vaccination with determination and by taking support from media and non-governmental organizations. Statements and explanations should be released with this in mind and media, and nongovernmental organizations should also take responsibility regarding this matter.

  3. The Association of H1N1 Pandemic Influenza with Congenital Anomaly Prevalence in Europe

    Luteijn, Johannes Michiel; Addor, Marie-Claude; Arriola, Larraitz;

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In the context of the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT) surveillance response to the 2009 influenza pandemic, we sought to establish whether there was a detectable increase of congenital anomaly prevalence among pregnancies exposed to influenza seasons in general...... performed for EUROCAT-defined anomaly subgroups, divided by whether there was a prior hypothesis of association with influenza. Influenza season exposure was based on World Health Organization data. Prevalence rate ratios were calculated comparing pregnancies exposed to influenza season during the...... congenital anomaly-specific critical period for embryo-fetal development to nonexposed pregnancies. RESULTS: There was no evidence for an increased overall prevalence of congenital anomalies among pregnancies exposed to influenza season. We detected an increased prevalence of ventricular septal defect and...

  4. Incorporating Research and Evaluation into Pandemic Influenza Vaccination Preparedness and Response

    2014-03-27

    Dr. Tom Shimabukuro, a medical officer at CDC, discusses Pandemic Influenza Vaccination Preparedness and Response.  Created: 3/27/2014 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 3/27/2014.

  5. Antiviral treatment for the control of pandemic influenza: some logistical constraints

    Arinaminpathy, N.; McLean, A. R.

    2007-01-01

    Disease control programmes for an influenza pandemic will rely initially on the deployment of antiviral drugs such as Tamiflu, until a vaccine becomes available. However, such control programmes may be severely hampered by logistical constraints such as a finite stockpile of drugs and a limit on the distribution rate. We study the effects of such constraints using a compartmental modelling approach.

  6. Coordination Costs for School-Located Influenza Vaccination Clinics, Maine, 2009 H1N1 Pandemic

    Asay, Garrett R. Beeler; Cho, Bo-Hyun; Lorick, Suchita A.; Tipton, Meredith L.; Dube, Nancy L.; Messonnier, Mark L.

    2012-01-01

    School nurses played a key role in Maine's school-located influenza vaccination (SLV) clinics during the 2009-2010 pandemic season. The objective of this study was to determine, from the school district perspective, the labor hours and costs associated with outside-clinic coordination activities (OCA). The authors defined OCA as labor hours spent…

  7. DNA vaccination elicits protective immune responses against pandemic and classic swine influenza viruses in pigs

    Swine influenza is a highly contagious viral infection in pigs that significantly impacts the pork industry due to weight loss and secondary infections. There is also the potential of a significant public health threat, highlighted by the possibility that the 2009 H1N1 pandemic strain emerged from r...

  8. The influenza pandemic and Europe: the social impact and public health response

    John Paget

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Influenza is unpredictable. It is a virus that
    spreads globally and each season viruses emerge
    with different virological, clinical and epidemiological characteristics. Usually influenza affects 5-20% [1] of the population but sometimes a pandemic virus emerges which spreads on a worldwide scale and infects a larger proportion of the human population.
    On 11 June 2009 WHO announced that the world was confronted with a pandemic virus – pandemic (H1N1 2009 virus. This virus was first detected in two children in the United States in March 2009 but had its epidemiological origins in Mexico City in January-March 2009 [2]. The virus
    quickly spread to the US and Canada, and then further afield. In the European Union and EEA countries, there are currently 9453 cases and four deaths and globally there are now over 79,000 cases and 332 deaths (3 July 2009 [3].

  9. Structural Basis of Preexisting Immunity to the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Influenza Virus

    Xu, Rui; Ekiert, Damian C.; Krause, Jens C.; Hai, Rong; Crowe, Jr., James E.; Wilson, Ian A. (Sinai); (Scripps); (Vanderbilt)

    2010-05-25

    The 2009 H1N1 swine flu is the first influenza pandemic in decades. The crystal structure of the hemagglutinin from the A/California/04/2009 H1N1 virus shows that its antigenic structure, particularly within the Sa antigenic site, is extremely similar to those of human H1N1 viruses circulating early in the 20th century. The cocrystal structure of the 1918 hemagglutinin with 2D1, an antibody from a survivor of the 1918 Spanish flu that neutralizes both 1918 and 2009 H1N1 viruses, reveals an epitope that is conserved in both pandemic viruses. Thus, antigenic similarity between the 2009 and 1918-like viruses provides an explanation for the age-related immunity to the current influenza pandemic.

  10. Mortality attributable to influenza in England and Wales prior to, during and after the 2009 pandemic.

    Green, Helen K; Andrews, Nick; Fleming, Douglas; Zambon, Maria; Pebody, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Very different influenza seasons have been observed from 2008/09-2011/12 in England and Wales, with the reported burden varying overall and by age group. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact of influenza on all-cause and cause-specific mortality during this period. Age-specific generalised linear regression models fitted with an identity link were developed, modelling weekly influenza activity through multiplying clinical influenza-like illness consultation rates with proportion of samples positive for influenza A or B. To adjust for confounding factors, a similar activity indicator was calculated for Respiratory Syncytial Virus. Extreme temperature and seasonal trend were controlled for. Following a severe influenza season in 2008/09 in 65+yr olds (estimated excess of 13,058 influenza A all-cause deaths), attributed all-cause mortality was not significant during the 2009 pandemic in this age group and comparatively low levels of influenza A mortality were seen in post-pandemic seasons. The age shift of the burden of seasonal influenza from the elderly to young adults during the pandemic continued into 2010/11; a comparatively larger impact was seen with the same circulating A(H1N1)pdm09 strain, with the burden of influenza A all-cause excess mortality in 15-64 yr olds the largest reported during 2008/09-2011/12 (436 deaths in 15-44 yr olds and 1,274 in 45-64 yr olds). On average, 76% of seasonal influenza A all-age attributable deaths had a cardiovascular or respiratory cause recorded (average of 5,849 influenza A deaths per season), with nearly a quarter reported for other causes (average of 1,770 influenza A deaths per season), highlighting the importance of all-cause as well as cause-specific estimates. No significant influenza B attributable mortality was detected by season, cause or age group. This analysis forms part of the preparatory work to establish a routine mortality monitoring system ahead of introduction of the UK universal

  11. Mortality attributable to influenza in England and Wales prior to, during and after the 2009 pandemic.

    Helen K Green

    Full Text Available Very different influenza seasons have been observed from 2008/09-2011/12 in England and Wales, with the reported burden varying overall and by age group. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact of influenza on all-cause and cause-specific mortality during this period. Age-specific generalised linear regression models fitted with an identity link were developed, modelling weekly influenza activity through multiplying clinical influenza-like illness consultation rates with proportion of samples positive for influenza A or B. To adjust for confounding factors, a similar activity indicator was calculated for Respiratory Syncytial Virus. Extreme temperature and seasonal trend were controlled for. Following a severe influenza season in 2008/09 in 65+yr olds (estimated excess of 13,058 influenza A all-cause deaths, attributed all-cause mortality was not significant during the 2009 pandemic in this age group and comparatively low levels of influenza A mortality were seen in post-pandemic seasons. The age shift of the burden of seasonal influenza from the elderly to young adults during the pandemic continued into 2010/11; a comparatively larger impact was seen with the same circulating A(H1N1pdm09 strain, with the burden of influenza A all-cause excess mortality in 15-64 yr olds the largest reported during 2008/09-2011/12 (436 deaths in 15-44 yr olds and 1,274 in 45-64 yr olds. On average, 76% of seasonal influenza A all-age attributable deaths had a cardiovascular or respiratory cause recorded (average of 5,849 influenza A deaths per season, with nearly a quarter reported for other causes (average of 1,770 influenza A deaths per season, highlighting the importance of all-cause as well as cause-specific estimates. No significant influenza B attributable mortality was detected by season, cause or age group. This analysis forms part of the preparatory work to establish a routine mortality monitoring system ahead of introduction of the UK

  12. Viral shedding in children infected by pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza virus

    Fossali Emilio; Taroni Francesca; Campanini Giulia; Scala Alessia; Baldanti Fausto; Daleno Cristina; Esposito Susanna; Pelucchi Claudio; Principi Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background The aim of this study was to investigate viral shedding in otherwise healthy children with pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza in order to define how long children with pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza shed the virus, and also plan adequate measures to control the spread of the disease within households. Findings In 74 otherwise healthy children with pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza, nasopharyngeal swabs were taken for virus detection upon hospital admission and every two days unti...

  13. Neutralizing antibodies derived from the B cells of 1918 influenza pandemic survivors.

    Yu, Xiaocong; Tsibane, Tshidi; McGraw, Patricia A; House, Frances S; Keefer, Christopher J; Hicar, Mark D; Tumpey, Terrence M; Pappas, Claudia; Perrone, Lucy A; Martinez, Osvaldo; Stevens, James; Wilson, Ian A; Aguilar, Patricia V; Altschuler, Eric L; Basler, Christopher F; Crowe, James E

    2008-09-25

    Investigation of the human antibody response to influenza virus infection has been largely limited to serology, with relatively little analysis at the molecular level. The 1918 H1N1 influenza virus pandemic was the most severe of the modern era. Recent work has recovered the gene sequences of this unusual strain, so that the 1918 pandemic virus could be reconstituted to display its unique virulence phenotypes. However, little is known about adaptive immunity to this virus. We took advantage of the 1918 virus sequencing and the resultant production of recombinant 1918 haemagglutinin (HA) protein antigen to characterize at the clonal level neutralizing antibodies induced by natural exposure of survivors to the 1918 pandemic virus. Here we show that of the 32 individuals tested that were born in or before 1915, each showed seroreactivity with the 1918 virus, nearly 90 years after the pandemic. Seven of the eight donor samples tested had circulating B cells that secreted antibodies that bound the 1918 HA. We isolated B cells from subjects and generated five monoclonal antibodies that showed potent neutralizing activity against 1918 virus from three separate donors. These antibodies also cross-reacted with the genetically similar HA of a 1930 swine H1N1 influenza strain, but did not cross-react with HAs of more contemporary human influenza viruses. The antibody genes had an unusually high degree of somatic mutation. The antibodies bound to the 1918 HA protein with high affinity, had exceptional virus-neutralizing potency and protected mice from lethal infection. Isolation of viruses that escaped inhibition suggested that the antibodies recognize classical antigenic sites on the HA surface. Thus, these studies demonstrate that survivors of the 1918 influenza pandemic possess highly functional, virus-neutralizing antibodies to this uniquely virulent virus, and that humans can sustain circulating B memory cells to viruses for many decades after exposure-well into the tenth

  14. Influenza vaccination in the Americas: Progress and challenges after the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic

    Ropero-Álvarez, Alba María; El Omeiri, Nathalie; Kurtis, Hannah Jane; Danovaro-Holliday, M. Carolina; Ruiz-Matus, Cuauhtémoc

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Background: There has been considerable uptake of seasonal influenza vaccines in the Americas compared to other regions. We describe the current influenza vaccination target groups, recent progress in vaccine uptake and in generating evidence on influenza seasonality and vaccine effectiveness for immunization programs. We also discuss persistent challenges, 5 years after the A(H1N1) 2009 influenza pandemic. Methods: We compiled and summarized data annually reported by countries to the Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization (PAHO/WHO) through the WHO/UNICEF joint report form on immunization, information obtained through PAHO's Revolving Fund for Vaccine Procurement and communications with managers of national Expanded Programs on Immunization (EPI). Results: Since 2008, 25 countries/territories in the Americas have introduced new target groups for vaccination or expanded the age ranges of existing target groups. As of 2014, 40 (89%) out of 45 countries/territories have policies established for seasonal influenza vaccination. Currently, 29 (64%) countries/territories target pregnant women for vaccination, the highest priority group according to WHO´s Stategic Advisory Group of Experts and PAHO/WHO's Technical Advisory Group on Vaccine-preventable Diseases, compared to only 7 (16%) in 2008. Among 23 countries reporting coverage data, on average, 75% of adults ≥60 years, 45% of children aged 6–23 months, 32% of children aged 5–2 years, 59% of pregnant women, 78% of healthcare workers, and 90% of individuals with chronic conditions were vaccinated during the 2013–14 Northern Hemisphere or 2014 Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccination activities. Difficulties however persist in the estimation of vaccination coverage, especially for pregnant women and persons with chronic conditions. Since 2007, 6 tropical countries have changed their vaccine formulation from the Northern to the Southern Hemisphere formulation and the timing of

  15. Characterizing the epidemiology of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico.

    Gerardo Chowell

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mexico's local and national authorities initiated an intense public health response during the early stages of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. In this study we analyzed the epidemiological patterns of the pandemic during April-December 2009 in Mexico and evaluated the impact of nonmedical interventions, school cycles, and demographic factors on influenza transmission. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used influenza surveillance data compiled by the Mexican Institute for Social Security, representing 40% of the population, to study patterns in influenza-like illness (ILIs hospitalizations, deaths, and case-fatality rate by pandemic wave and geographical region. We also estimated the reproduction number (R on the basis of the growth rate of daily cases, and used a transmission model to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies initiated during the spring pandemic wave. A total of 117,626 ILI cases were identified during April-December 2009, of which 30.6% were tested for influenza, and 23.3% were positive for the influenza A/H1N1 pandemic virus. A three-wave pandemic profile was identified, with an initial wave in April-May (Mexico City area, a second wave in June-July (southeastern states, and a geographically widespread third wave in August-December. The median age of laboratory confirmed ILI cases was ∼ 18 years overall and increased to ∼ 31 years during autumn (p<0.0001. The case-fatality ratio among ILI cases was 1.2% overall, and highest (5.5% among people over 60 years. The regional R estimates were 1.8-2.1, 1.6-1.9, and 1.2-1.3 for the spring, summer, and fall waves, respectively. We estimate that the 18-day period of mandatory school closures and other social distancing measures implemented in the greater Mexico City area was associated with a 29%-37% reduction in influenza transmission in spring 2009. In addition, an increase in R was observed in late May and early June in the southeast states, after mandatory school

  16. Caffeoylquinic Acids Are Major Constituents with Potent Anti-Influenza Effects in Brazilian Green Propolis Water Extract

    Tomohiko Urushisaki; Tomoaki Takemura; Shigemi Tazawa; Mayuko Fukuoka; Junji Hosokawa-Muto; Yoko Araki; Kazuo Kuwata

    2011-01-01

    Influenza A viral infections reached pandemic levels in 1918, 1957, 1968, and, most recently, in 2009 with the emergence of the swine-origin H1N1 influenza virus. The development of novel therapeutics or prophylactics for influenza virus infection is urgently needed. We examined the evaluation of the anti-influenza virus (A/WSN/33 (H1N1)) activity of Brazilian green propolis water extract (PWE) and its constituents by cell viability and real-time PCR assays. Our findings showed strong eviden...

  17. Relevance of workplace social mixing during influenza pandemics: an experimental modelling study of workplace cultures.

    Timpka, T; Eriksson, H; Holm, E; Strömgren, M; Ekberg, J; Spreco, A; Dahlström, Ö

    2016-07-01

    Workplaces are one of the most important regular meeting places in society. The aim of this study was to use simulation experiments to examine the impact of different workplace cultures on influenza dissemination during pandemics. The impact is investigated by experiments with defined social-mixing patterns at workplaces using semi-virtual models based on authentic sociodemographic and geographical data from a North European community (population 136 000). A simulated pandemic outbreak was found to affect 33% of the total population in the community with the reference academic-creative workplace culture; virus transmission at the workplace accounted for 10·6% of the cases. A model with a prevailing industrial-administrative workplace culture generated 11% lower incidence than the reference model, while the model with a self-employed workplace culture (also corresponding to a hypothetical scenario with all workplaces closed) produced 20% fewer cases. The model representing an academic-creative workplace culture with restricted workplace interaction generated 12% lower cumulative incidence compared to the reference model. The results display important theoretical associations between workplace social-mixing cultures and community-level incidence rates during influenza pandemics. Social interaction patterns at workplaces should be taken into consideration when analysing virus transmission patterns during influenza pandemics. PMID:26847017

  18. Origins of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in swine in Mexico

    Mena, Ignacio; Nelson, Martha I; Quezada-Monroy, Francisco; Dutta, Jayeeta; Cortes-Fernández, Refugio; Lara-Puente, J Horacio; Castro-Peralta, Felipa; Cunha, Luis F; Trovão, Nídia S; Lozano-Dubernard, Bernardo; Rambaut, Andrew; van Bakel, Harm; García-Sastre, Adolfo

    2016-01-01

    Asia is considered an important source of influenza A virus (IAV) pandemics, owing to large, diverse viral reservoirs in poultry and swine. However, the zoonotic origins of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic virus (pdmH1N1) remain unclear, due to conflicting evidence from swine and humans. There is strong evidence that the first human outbreak of pdmH1N1 occurred in Mexico in early 2009. However, no related swine viruses have been detected in Mexico or any part of the Americas, and to date the most closely related ancestor viruses were identified in Asian swine. Here, we use 58 new whole-genome sequences from IAVs collected in Mexican swine to establish that the swine virus responsible for the 2009 pandemic evolved in central Mexico. This finding highlights how the 2009 pandemic arose from a region not considered a pandemic risk, owing to an expansion of IAV diversity in swine resulting from long-distance live swine trade. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.16777.001 PMID:27350259

  19. A novel reassortant canine H3N1 influenza virus between pandemic H1N1 and canine H3N2 influenza viruses in Korea

    Song, Daesub; Moon, Hyoung-Joon; An, Dong-Jun; Jeoung, Hye-Young; Kim, Hyekwon; Yeom, Min-Joo; Hong, Minki; Nam, Jeong-Hyun; Park, Seong-Jun; Park, Bong-Kyun; Oh, Jin-Sik; Song, Manki; Webster, Robert G; Kim, Jeong-Ki; Kang, Bo-Kyu

    2012-01-01

    During recent canine influenza surveillance in South Korea, a novel H3N1 canine influenza virus (CIV) that is a putative reassortant between pandemic H1N1 2009 and H3N2 CIVs was isolated. Genetic analysis of eight genes of the influenza virus revealed that the novel H3N1 isolate presented high similarities (99.1–99.9 %) to pandemic influenza H1N1, except for in the haemagglutinin (HA) gene. The HA gene nucleotide sequence of the novel CIV H3N1 was similar (99.6 %) to that of CIV H3N2 isolated...

  20. ‘Spanish’ flu and army horses: what historians and biologists can learn from a history of animals with flu during the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic

    Floor Haalboom

    2014-01-01

    At the time of the 1918–1919 ‘Spanish’ influenza pandemic, influenza researchers did not just relate this disease to the human population, despite the focus of historians of medicine on its human aspects and meanings. In line with the use of historical reports of animals with influenza in present-day microbiological studies on influenza among different animal species, this article investigates understandings of animal influenza in the Netherlands during the 1918–1919 pandemic. The article add...

  1. Healthcare workers' attitudes towards working during pandemic influenza: A multi method study

    Petts Judith

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Healthcare workers (HCWs will be key players in any response to pandemic influenza, and will be in the front line of exposure to infection. Responding effectively to a pandemic relies on the majority of medical, nursing, laboratory and hotel services staff continuing to work normally. Planning assumes that during a pandemic normal healthcare service levels will be provided, although it anticipates that as caseloads increase only essential care will be provided. The ability of the NHS to provide expected service levels is entirely dependent upon HCWs continuing to work as normal. Methods/design This study is designed as a two-phase multi-method study, incorporating focus groups and a questionnaire survey. In phase one, qualitative methods will be used to collect the views of a purposive sample of HCWs, to determine the range of factors associated with their responses to the prospect of working through pandemic influenza. In phase two, the findings from the focus groups, combined with the available literature, will be used to inform the design of a survey to determine the generalisability of these factors, enabling the estimation of the likely proportion of HCWs affected by each factor, and how likely it is that they would be willing and/or able to continue to work during an influenza pandemic. Discussion There are potentially greater than normal health risks for some healthcare workers working during a pandemic, and these workers may be concerned about infecting family members/friends. HCWs will be as liable as other workers to care for sick family members and friends. It is vital to have information about how motivated HCWs will be to continue to work during such a crisis, and what factors might influence their decision to work/not to work. Through the identification and subsequent management of these factors it may be possible to implement strategies that will alleviate the concerns and fears of HCWs and remove potential

  2. Responding to vaccine safety signals during pandemic influenza: a modeling study.

    Judith C Maro

    Full Text Available Managing emerging vaccine safety signals during an influenza pandemic is challenging. Federal regulators must balance vaccine risks against benefits while maintaining public confidence in the public health system.We developed a multi-criteria decision analysis model to explore regulatory decision-making in the context of emerging vaccine safety signals during a pandemic. We simulated vaccine safety surveillance system capabilities and used an age-structured compartmental model to develop potential pandemic scenarios. We used an expert-derived multi-attribute utility function to evaluate potential regulatory responses by combining four outcome measures into a single measure of interest: 1 expected vaccination benefit from averted influenza; 2 expected vaccination risk from vaccine-associated febrile seizures; 3 expected vaccination risk from vaccine-associated Guillain-Barre Syndrome; and 4 expected change in vaccine-seeking behavior in future influenza seasons.Over multiple scenarios, risk communication, with or without suspension of vaccination of high-risk persons, were the consistently preferred regulatory responses over no action or general suspension when safety signals were detected during a pandemic influenza. On average, the expert panel valued near-term vaccine-related outcomes relative to long-term projected outcomes by 3:1. However, when decision-makers had minimal ability to influence near-term outcomes, the response was selected primarily by projected impacts on future vaccine-seeking behavior.The selected regulatory response depends on how quickly a vaccine safety signal is identified relative to the peak of the pandemic and the initiation of vaccination. Our analysis suggested two areas for future investment: efforts to improve the size and timeliness of the surveillance system and behavioral research to understand changes in vaccine-seeking behavior.

  3. Hospitalization in two waves of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in England.

    Campbell, C N J; Mytton, O T; McLean, E M; Rutter, P D; Pebody, R G; Sachedina, N; White, P J; Hawkins, C; Evans, B; Waight, P A; Ellis, J; Bermingham, A; Donaldson, L J; Catchpole, M

    2011-10-01

    Uncertainties exist regarding the population risks of hospitalization due to pandemic influenza A(H1N1). Understanding these risks is important for patients, clinicians and policy makers. This study aimed to clarify these uncertainties. A national surveillance system was established for patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in England. Information was captured on demographics, pre-existing conditions, treatment and outcomes. The relative risks of hospitalization associated with pre-existing conditions were estimated by combining the captured data with population prevalence estimates. A total of 2416 hospitalizations were reported up to 6 January 2010. Within the population, 4·7 people/100,000 were hospitalized with pandemic influenza A(H1N1). The estimated hospitalization rate of cases showed a U-shaped distribution with age. Chronic kidney disease, chronic neurological disease, chronic respiratory disease and immunosuppression were each associated with a 10- to 20-fold increased risk of hospitalization. Patients who received antiviral medication within 48 h of symptom onset were less likely to be admitted to critical care than those who received them after this time (adjusted odds ratio 0·64, 95% confidence interval 0·44-0·94, P=0·024). In England the risk of hospitalization with pandemic influenza A(H1N1) has been concentrated in the young and those with pre-existing conditions. By quantifying these risks, this study will prove useful in planning for the next winter in the northern and southern hemispheres, and for future pandemics. PMID:21108872

  4. Predictors of symptoms of posttraumatic stress in Chinese university students during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic

    Xu, Jiahong; Zheng, Yayuan; Wang, Mingmin; Zhao, Jiangmin; Zhan, Qing; Fu, Mingxu; Wang, Qianyi; Xiao, Junjie; Cheng, Yan

    2011-01-01

    Summary Background The university environment poses a high risk of spreading infectious diseases, particularly the 2009 pandemic influenza H1N1, as it is a mass gathering place for youth. This study aimed to evaluate the predictors of stress symptoms among Chinese university students during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Material/Methods We used a self-reported questionnaire, the PTSD (posttraumatic stress disorder) Checklist-Civilian Version (PCL-C) to evaluate the stress symptoms among C...

  5. Healthcare workers as parents: attitudes toward vaccinating their children against pandemic influenza A/H1N1

    Torun Fuat; Torun Sebahat D; Catak Binali

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background Both the health care workers (HCWs) and children are target groups for pandemic influenza vaccination. The coverage of the target populations is an important determinant for impact of mass vaccination. The objective of this study is to determine the attitudes of HCWs as parents, toward vaccinating their children with pandemic influenza A/H1N1 vaccine. Methods A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted with health care workers (HCWs) in a public hospital during De...

  6. Evolutionary Dynamics of Local Pandemic H1N1/2009 Influenza Virus Lineages Revealed by Whole-Genome Analysis

    Baillie, Gregory J.; Galiano, Monica; Agapow, Paul-Michael; Myers, Richard; Chiam, Rachael; Gall, Astrid; Palser, Anne L.; Watson, Simon J.; Hedge, Jessica; Underwood, Anthony; Platt, Steven; McLean, Estelle; Pebody, Richard G.; Rambaut, Andrew; Green, Jonathan

    2012-01-01

    Virus gene sequencing and phylogenetics can be used to study the epidemiological dynamics of rapidly evolving viruses. With complete genome data, it becomes possible to identify and trace individual transmission chains of viruses such as influenza virus during the course of an epidemic. Here we sequenced 153 pandemic influenza H1N1/09 virus genomes from United Kingdom isolates from the first (127 isolates) and second (26 isolates) waves of the 2009 pandemic and used their sequences, dates of ...

  7. Predicting the Antigenic Structure of the Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza Virus Hemagglutinin

    Igarashi, Manabu; Ito, Kimihito; Yoshida, Reiko; Tomabechi, Daisuke; Kida, Hiroshi; Takada, Ayato

    2010-01-01

    The pandemic influenza virus (2009 H1N1) was recently introduced into the human population. The hemagglutinin (HA) gene of 2009 H1N1 is derived from “classical swine H1N1” virus, which likely shares a common ancestor with the human H1N1 virus that caused the pandemic in 1918, whose descendant viruses are still circulating in the human population with highly altered antigenicity of HA. However, information on the structural basis to compare the HA antigenicity among 2009 H1N1, the 1918 pandemi...

  8. Economics of employer-sponsored workplace vaccination to prevent pandemic and seasonal influenza.

    Lee, Bruce Y; Bailey, Rachel R; Wiringa, Ann E; Afriyie, Abena; Wateska, Angela R; Smith, Kenneth J; Zimmerman, Richard K

    2010-08-23

    Employers may be loath to fund vaccination programs without understanding the economic consequences. We developed a decision analytic computational simulation model including dynamic transmission elements that estimated the cost-benefit of employer-sponsored workplace vaccination from the employer's perspective. Implementing such programs was relatively inexpensive (<$35/vaccinated employee) and, in many cases, cost saving across diverse occupational groups in all seasonal influenza scenarios. Such programs were cost-saving for a 20% serologic attack rate pandemic scenario (range: -$15 to -$995) per vaccinated employee) and a 30% serologic attack rate pandemic scenario (range: -$39 to -$1,494 per vaccinated employee) across all age and major occupational groups. PMID:20620168

  9. Heterogeneous virulence of pandemic 2009 influenza H1N1 virus in mice

    Farooqui Amber

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Understanding the pathogenesis of influenza infection is a key factor leading to the prevention and control of future outbreaks. Pandemic 2009 Influenza H1N1 infection, although frequently mild, led to a severe and fatal form of disease in certain cases that make its virulence nature debatable. Much effort has been made toward explaining the determinants of disease severity; however, no absolute reason has been established. Results This study presents the heterogeneous virulence of clinically similar strains of pandemic 2009 influenza virus in human alveolar adenocarcinoma cells and mice. The viruses were obtained from patients who were admitted in a local hospital in China with a similar course of infection and recovered. The A/Nanchang/8002/2009 and A/Nanchang/8011/2009 viruses showed efficient replication and high lethality in mice while infection with A/Nanchang/8008/2009 was not lethal with impaired viral replication, minimal pathology and modest proinflammatory activity in lungs. Sequence analysis displayed prominent differences between polymerase subunits (PB2 and PA of viral genomes that might correlate with their different phenotypic behavior. Conclusions The study confirms that biological heterogeneity, linked with the extent of viral replication, exists among pandemic H1N1 strains that may serve as a benchmark for future investigations on influenza pathogenesis.

  10. Pandemic influenza and excess intensive-care workload

    Nap, Raoul E.; Andriessen, Maarten P. H. M.; Meessen, Nico E. L.; Miranda, Dinis dos Reis; van der Werf, Tjip S.

    2008-01-01

    In the Netherlands a major part of preparedness planning for an epidemic or pandemic consists of maintaining essential public services, e.g., by the police, fire departments, army personnel, and healthcare workers. We provide estimates for peak demand for healthcare workers, factoring in healthcare

  11. Direct association between pharyngeal viral secretion and host cytokine response in severe pandemic influenza

    Castro Carmen

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Severe disease caused by 2009 pandemic influenza A/H1N1virus is characterized by the presence of hypercytokinemia. The origin of the exacerbated cytokine response is unclear. As observed previously, uncontrolled influenza virus replication could strongly influence cytokine production. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the relationship between host cytokine responses and viral levels in pandemic influenza critically ill patients. Methods Twenty three patients admitted to the ICU with primary viral pneumonia were included in this study. A quantitative PCR based method targeting the M1 influenza gene was developed to quantify pharyngeal viral load. In addition, by using a multiplex based assay, we systematically evaluated host cytokine responses to the viral infection at admission to the ICU. Correlation studies between cytokine levels and viral load were done by calculating the Spearman correlation coefficient. Results Fifteen patients needed of intubation and ventilation, while eight did not need of mechanical ventilation during ICU hospitalization. Viral load in pharyngeal swabs was 300 fold higher in the group of patients with the worst respiratory condition at admission to the ICU. Pharyngeal viral load directly correlated with plasma levels of the pro-inflammatory cytokines IL-6, IL-12p70, IFN-γ, the chemotactic factors MIP-1β, GM-CSF, the angiogenic mediator VEGF and also of the immuno-modulatory cytokine IL-1ra (p Conclusions Severe respiratory disease caused by the 2009 pandemic influenza virus is characterized by the existence of a direct association between viral replication and host cytokine response, revealing a potential pathogenic link with the severe disease caused by other influenza subtypes such as H5N1.

  12. Pre-Existing Immunity with High Neutralizing Activity to 2009 Pandemic H1N1 Influenza Virus in Shanghai Population

    Liu, Xiaoqing; Liu, Yuan; Zhang, Yanjun; Chen, Zhihui; Tang, Ziwei; Xu, Qingqiang; Wang, Yue; Zhao, Ping; Qi, Zhongtian

    2013-01-01

    Pre-existing immunity is an important factor countering the pandemic potential of an emerging influenza virus strain. Thus, studying of pre-existing immunity to the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus (2009 H1N1) will advance our understanding of the pathogenesis and epidemiology of this emerging pathogen. In the present study, sera were collected from 486 individuals in a hospital in Shanghai, China, before the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. The serum anti-hemagglutinins (HA) antibody, hemagglutination ...

  13. Changes in severity of 2009 pandemic A/H1N1 influenza in England: a Bayesian evidence synthesis

    Presanis, A. M.; Pebody, R. G.; Paterson, B J; Tom, B D M; Birrell, P. J.; Charlett, A.; Lipsitch, Marc; Angelis, D. D.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To assess the impact of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in England during the two waves of activity up to end of February 2010 by estimating the probabilities of cases leading to severe events and the proportion of the population infected. Design: A Bayesian evidence synthesis of all available relevant surveillance data in England to estimate severity of the pandemic. Data sources: All available surveillance systems relevant to the pandemic 2009 A/H1N1 influenza outbreak in Engl...

  14. Scientific lessons from the first influenza pandemic of the 20th century.

    Oxford, J S; Lambkin, R; Elliot, A; Daniels, R; Sefton, A; Gill, D

    2006-11-10

    Re-analysis of the influenza pandemic of 1918 has given reassurance about a rather low reproductive number (R(o)), a prolonged herald wave of virus and that the skewed mortality towards the young adult could be a singularly unique event dependent upon previous infection history, perhaps not to be repeated in a future pandemic. Over 99% of those who contracted the virus survived, in spite of the absence of antivirals, vaccine and antibiotics for the secondary bacteria infections which probably accounted for one-third of the 50 million deaths. Therefore, in spite of a three-fold population increase since 1918 and 100 thousand plane journeys daily, judicious and careful planning together with a stockpile of antiviral drugs, oseltamivir, zanamivir and M2 blockers and a generic H5N1 vaccine, and application of hygiene would be expected to reduce mortality in a new pandemic, to figures significantly less than 1918. PMID:17069939

  15. Adenovirus-Vectored Vaccine as a Rapid-Response Tool Against Avian Influenza Pandemic

    Influenza viruses in nature undergo genetic mutation and reassortment. Three pandemics of avian influenza in man were recorded in the twentieth century. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses currently in circulation pose a threat for another world-wide pandemic, if they become transmissible from man to man. Manufacturing protective vaccines using current egg-based technology is often difficult due to the virulence of the virus and its adverse effects on the embryonating egg substrate. New technologies allow the creation of safe and protective pandemic influenza vaccines without the need for egg based substrates. These technologies allow new vaccines to be created in less than one month. Manufacturing is in tissue culture, not eggs. Vaccine can be administered to man non-invasively, without adjuvants, eliciting a rapid and protective immune response. Protective immunity against avian influenza (AI) virus was elicited in chickens by single-dose in ovo vaccination with a replication-competent adenovirus (RCA)-free human adenovirus serotype 5 (Ad5)-derived vector encoding an H5N9 avian influenza virus hemagglutinin. Vaccinated chickens were protected against both H5N1 and H5N2 HPAI virus challenges. Mass-administration of this bird flu vaccine can be streamlined with available robotic in ovo injectors. Vaccination using this vaccine could protect the the largest host reservoir (chickens) and greatly reduce the exposure of man to avian influenza. In addition, Ad5-vectored vaccines can be produced rapidly and the safety margin of a non-replicating vector is superior to that of a replicating counterpart. Furthermore, this mode of vaccination is compatible with epidemiological surveys of natural AI virus infections. In addition to mass immunization of poultry, both animals and humans have been effectively immunized by intranasal administration of Ad5-vectored influenza vaccines without any appreciable side effects, even in mice and human volunteers with

  16. Preparing for and responding to pandemic influenza: implications for people with disabilities.

    Campbell, Vincent A; Gilyard, Jamylle A; Sinclair, Lisa; Sternberg, Tom; Kailes, June I

    2009-10-01

    State, local, tribal, and territorial emergency managers and public health officials must address the specific needs of people with disabilities in their pandemic influenza plans. Evidence from Hurricane Katrina indicated that this population was disproportionately affected by the storm and aftermath. People with disabilities, particularly those who require personal assistance and those who reside in congregate care facilities, may be at increased risk during an influenza pandemic because of disrupted care or the introduction of the virus by their caregivers. Emergency and public health planners must ensure that personal assistance agencies and congregate care operators make provisions for backup staffing and that those who provide critical care are given adequate antiviral drugs and vaccines as they become available. PMID:19797741

  17. Pandemic (H1N1 2009 influenza: Experience from a critical care unit in India

    Sahoo Jyoti

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This case series details our experience with seven patients with pandemic (H1N1 2009 influenza from an intensive care unit in India. All the patients had respiratory failure requiring ventilation except one; two patients developed pneumothorax. Of the seven patients, two died (28.5% and five recovered. Four patients had co-morbid conditions and one was morbidly obese; all the five patients were discharged alive.

  18. Department of Defense influenza and other respiratory disease surveillance during the 2009 pandemic.

    Burke, Ronald L; Vest, Kelly G; Eick, Angelia A; Sanchez, Jose L; Johns, Matthew C; Pavlin, Julie A; Jarman, Richard G; Mothershead, Jerry L; Quintana, Miguel; Palys, Thomas; Cooper, Michael J; Guan, Jian; Schnabel, David; Waitumbi, John; Wilma, Alisa; Daniels, Candelaria; Brown, Matthew L; Tobias, Steven; Kasper, Matthew R; Williams, Maya; Tjaden, Jeffrey A; Oyofo, Buhari; Styles, Timothy; Blair, Patrick J; Hawksworth, Anthony; Montgomery, Joel M; Razuri, Hugo; Laguna-Torres, Alberto; Schoepp, Randal J; Norwood, David A; Macintosh, Victor H; Gibbons, Thomas; Gray, Gregory C; Blazes, David L; Russell, Kevin L; Rubenstein, Jennifer; Hathaway, Kyle; Gibbons, Robert; Yoon, In-Kyu; Saunders, David; Gaywee, Jariyanart; Stoner, Mikal; Timmermans, Ans; Shrestha, Sanjaya K; Velasco, John Mark S; Alera, Maria T; Tannitisupawong, Darunee; Myint, Khin Saw; Pichyangkul, Sathit; Woods, Ben; Jerke, Kurt H; Koenig, Michael G; Byarugaba, Denis K; Mangen, Fred Wabwire; Assefa, Berhane; Williams, Maya; Brice, Gary; Mansour, Moustafa; Pimentel, Guillermo; Sebeny, Peter; Talaat, Maha; Saeed, Tamer; Espinosa, Ben; Faix, Dennis; Maves, Ryan; Kochel, Tadeusz; Smith, James; Guerrero, Alicia; Maupin, Gen; Sjoberg, Paul; Duffy, Mark; Garner, Jason; Canas, Linda; Macias, Elizabeth; Kuschner, Robert A; Shanks, Dennis; Lewis, Sheri; Nowak, Gosia; Ndip, Lucy M; Wolfe, Nathan; Saylors, Karen

    2011-01-01

    The Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center's Division of Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (AFHSC-GEIS) supports and oversees surveillance for emerging infectious diseases, including respiratory diseases, of importance to the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). AFHSC-GEIS accomplishes this mission by providing funding and oversight to a global network of partners for respiratory disease surveillance. This report details the system's surveillance activities during 2009, with a focus on efforts in responding to the novel H1N1 Influenza A (A/H1N1) pandemic and contributions to global public health. Active surveillance networks established by AFHSC-GEIS partners resulted in the initial detection of novel A/H1N1 influenza in the U.S. and several other countries, and viruses isolated from these activities were used as seed strains for the 2009 pandemic influenza vaccine. Partners also provided diagnostic laboratory training and capacity building to host nations to assist with the novel A/H1N1 pandemic global response, adapted a Food and Drug Administration-approved assay for use on a ruggedized polymerase chain reaction platform for diagnosing novel A/H1N1 in remote settings, and provided estimates of seasonal vaccine effectiveness against novel A/H1N1 illness. Regular reporting of the system's worldwide surveillance findings to the global public health community enabled leaders to make informed decisions on disease mitigation measures and controls for the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic. AFHSC-GEIS's support of a global network contributes to DoD's force health protection, while supporting global public health. PMID:21388566

  19. Broadly protective adenovirus-based multivalent vaccines against highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses for pandemic preparedness.

    Vemula, Sai V; Ahi, Yadvinder S; Swaim, Anne-Marie; Katz, Jacqueline M; Donis, Ruben; Sambhara, Suryaprakash; Mittal, Suresh K

    2013-01-01

    Recurrent outbreaks of H5, H7 and H9 avian influenza viruses in domestic poultry accompanied by their occasional transmission to humans have highlighted the public health threat posed by these viruses. Newer vaccine approaches for pandemic preparedness against these viruses are needed, given the limitations of vaccines currently approved for H5N1 viruses in terms of their production timelines and the ability to induce protective immune responses in the absence of adjuvants. In this study, we evaluated the feasibility of an adenovirus (AdV)-based multivalent vaccine approach for pandemic preparedness against H5, H7 and H9 avian influenza viruses in a mouse model. Replication-defective AdV vectors expressing hemagglutinin (HA) from different subtypes and nucleoprotein (NP) from one subtype induced high levels of humoral and cellular immune responses and conferred protection against virus replication following challenge with H5, H7 and H9 avian influenza virus subtypes. Inclusion of HA from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus in the vaccine formulation further broadened the vaccine coverage. Significantly high levels of HA stalk-specific antibodies were observed following immunization with the multivalent vaccine. Inclusion of NP into the multivalent HA vaccine formulation resulted in the induction of CD8 T cell responses. These results suggest that a multivalent vaccine strategy may provide reasonable protection in the event of a pandemic caused by H5, H7, or H9 avian influenza virus before a strain-matched vaccine can be produced. PMID:23638099

  20. Transmission parameters of the A/H1N1 (2009) influenza virus pandemic: a review

    Boëlle, Pierre‐Yves; Ansart, Séverine; Cori, Anne; Valleron, Alain‐Jacques

    2011-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Boëlle P‐Y et al. (2011) Transmission parameters of the A/H1N1 (2009) influenza virus pandemic: a review. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 5(5), 306–316. Background  The new influenza virus A/H1N1 (2009), identified in mid‐2009, rapidly spread over the world. Estimating the transmissibility of this new virus was a public health priority. Methods  We reviewed all studies presenting estimates of the serial interval or generation time and the reproduction number of the A/H1N1 (2009) virus infection. Results  Thirteen studies documented the serial interval from household or close‐contact studies, with overall mean 3 days (95% CI: 2·4, 3·6); taking into account tertiary transmission reduced this estimate to 2·6 days. Model‐based estimates were more variable, from 1·9 to 6 days. Twenty‐four studies reported reproduction numbers for community‐based epidemics at the town or country level. The range was 1·2–3·1, with larger estimates reported at the beginning of the pandemic. Accounting for under‐reporting in the early period of the pandemic and limiting variation because of the choice of the generation time interval, the reproduction number was between 1·2 and 2·3 with median 1·5. Discussion  The serial interval of A/H1N1 (2009) flu was typically short, with mean value similar to the seasonal flu. The estimates of the reproduction number were more variable. Compared with past influenza pandemics, the median reproduction number was similar (1968) or slightly smaller (1889, 1918, 1957). PMID:21668690

  1. The Impact of the Unstructured Contacts Component in Influenza Pandemic Modeling

    Marco Ajelli; Stefano Merler

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Individual based models have become a valuable tool for modeling the spatiotemporal dynamics of epidemics, e.g. influenza pandemic, and for evaluating the effectiveness of intervention strategies. While specific contacts among individuals into diverse environments (family, school/workplace) can be modeled in a standard way by employing available socio-demographic data, all the other (unstructured) contacts can be dealt with by adopting very different approaches. This can be achiev...

  2. Prediction of the next highly pathogenic avian influenza pandemic that can cause illness in humans

    Zhang, Zhong-wei; Liu, Ting; Zeng, Jian; Chen, Yang-Er; Yuan, Ming; Zhang, Da-Wei; Zhu, Feng; Yuan, Shu

    2015-01-01

    Background In recent years, avian influenza viruses (AIVs) have seriously threatened human health. Questions such as: why do AIVs infect humans?, how quickly can an AIV become pandemic?, and which virus is the most dangerous? cannot be sufficiently answered using current bioinformatic studies. Method Secondary structures and energies of representative 5′-untranslated region (UTR) of the HA gene were calculated. Then their secondary structures and energies were re-calculated after one or two n...

  3. 流感大流行带来的启示%The Inspiration from Pandemic Influenza

    叶淑英

    2012-01-01

      人类历史上曾暴发过4次流感大流行,即1918年“西班牙流感”、1957年“亚洲流感”、1968年“香港流感”和2009年“北美流感”,每一次流感大流行都给全球公共卫生、社会经济等带来极大危害。本文从流感的流行史、流行的特点、死亡率等流行病学特征进行探讨,为全面认识流感,正确面对和科学防控流感大流行提供借鉴。%  Fore major pandemics were recorded in the history of human:“Spanish Influenza”in 1918,“Asian Influenza”in 1957,“Hong Kong influenza”in1968, and“Northern American influenza”in 2009. Each influenza pandemic has damaged the economic development and has influenced the global public health badly. In this review, we discussed the pandemic history of influenza, pandemic characters,mortality and other epidemiological characteristics for knowing influenza on all sides, facing influenza pandemic exactly, providing scientific reference on prevention and control of influenza pandemic.

  4. Antibody response of healthy children to pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza virus

    Esposito Susanna

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Little is known about the proportion of pediatric pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza cases who showed seroconversion, the magnitude of this seroconversion, or the factors that can affect the antibody level evoked by the pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza. Aims of this study were to analyse antibody responses and the factors associated with high antibody titres in a cohort of children with naturally acquired A/H1N1/2009 influenza infection confirmed by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR. Results Demographic, clinical and virologic data were collected from 69 otherwise healthy children with pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza (27 females, mean age ± SD: 5.01 ± 4.55 years. Their antibody levels against pandemic A/H1N1/2009 and seasonal A/H1N1 influenza viruses were evaluated by measuring hemagglutination-inhibiting antibodies using standard assays. Sixty-four patients (92.8% with pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza had A/H1N1/2009 antibody levels of ≥40, whereas only 28/69 (40.6% were seroprotected against seasonal A/H1N1 influenza virus. Those who were seroprotected against seasonal A/H1N1 virus were significantly older, significantly more often hospitalised, had a diagnosis of pneumonia significantly more frequently, and were significantly more often treated with oseltamivir than those who were not seroprotected (p Conclusions Otherwise healthy children seem to show seroprotective antibody titres after natural infection with pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza virus. The strength of the immune response seems to be related to the severity of the disease, but not to previous seasonal A/H1N1 influenza immunity.

  5. Performance of the Directigen EZ Flu A+B rapid influenza diagnostic test to detect pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009.

    Boyanton, Bobby L; Almradi, Amro; Mehta, Tejal; Robinson-Dunn, Barbara

    2014-04-01

    The Directigen EZ Flu A+B rapid influenza diagnostic test, as compared to real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction, demonstrated suboptimal performance to detect pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009. Age- and viral load-stratified test sensitivity ranged from 33.3 to 84.6% and 0 to 100%, respectively. PMID:24582319

  6. Antibody response of healthy children to pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza virus

    Esposito Susanna; Daleno Cristina; Tagliabue Claudia; Scala Alessia; Picciolli Irene; Taroni Francesca; Galeone Carlotta; Baldanti Fausto; Principi Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background Little is known about the proportion of pediatric pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza cases who showed seroconversion, the magnitude of this seroconversion, or the factors that can affect the antibody level evoked by the pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza. Aims of this study were to analyse antibody responses and the factors associated with high antibody titres in a cohort of children with naturally acquired A/H1N1/2009 influenza infection confirmed by reverse-transcriptase polymer...

  7. The effect of risk perception on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics.

    Piero Poletti

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics in Italy was characterized by a notable pattern: as it emerged from the analysis of influenza-like illness data, after an initial period (September-mid-October 2009 characterized by a slow exponential increase in the weekly incidence, a sudden and sharp increase of the growth rate was observed by mid-October. The aim here is to understand whether spontaneous behavioral changes in the population could be responsible for such a pattern of epidemic spread. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In order to face this issue, a mathematical model of influenza transmission, accounting for spontaneous behavioral changes driven by cost/benefit considerations on the perceived risk of infection, is proposed and validated against empirical epidemiological data. The performed investigation revealed that an initial overestimation of the risk of infection in the general population, possibly induced by the high concern for the emergence of a new influenza pandemic, results in a pattern of spread compliant with the observed one. This finding is also supported by the analysis of antiviral drugs purchase over the epidemic period. Moreover, by assuming a generation time of 2.5 days, the initially diffuse misperception of the risk of infection led to a relatively low value of the reproductive number , which increased to in the subsequent phase of the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study highlights that spontaneous behavioral changes in the population, not accounted by the large majority of influenza transmission models, can not be neglected to correctly inform public health decisions. In fact, individual choices can drastically affect the epidemic spread, by altering timing, dynamics and overall number of cases.

  8. Social capital and health-protective behavior intentions in an influenza pandemic.

    Chuang, Ying-Chih; Huang, Ya-Li; Tseng, Kuo-Chien; Yen, Chia-Hsin; Yang, Lin-hui

    2015-01-01

    Health-protective behaviors, such as receiving a vaccine, wearing a face mask, and washing hands frequently, can reduce the risk of contracting influenza. However, little is known about how social capital may influence health-protective behavior in the general population. This study examined whether each of the social capital dimensions (bonding, bridging, and linking) contributed to the intention to adopt any of the health-protective behaviors in an influenza pandemic. The data of this study were from the 2014 Taiwan Social Change Survey. A stratified, three-stage probability proportional-to-size sampling from across the nation, was conducted to select adults aged 20 years and older (N = 1,745). Bonding social capital was measured by the frequency of neighborly contact and support. Bridging social capital was measured based on association membership. Linking social capital was measured according to general government trust and trust in the government's capacity to counter an influenza pandemic. Binary logistic regressions were used to assess the multivariate associations between social capital and behavioral intention. The study results indicate that social capital may influence the response to influenza pandemic. Specifically, the intention to receive a vaccine and to wash hands more frequently were associated with the linking dimension and the bonding dimension of social capital, while the intention to wear a face mask was associated with all forms of social capital. The findings of this study suggest that government credibility and interpersonal networks may play a crucial role in health-protective behavior. This study provides new insights into how to improve the effectiveness of influenza prevention campaigns. PMID:25874625

  9. Immunogenicity of Virus Like Particle Forming Baculoviral DNA Vaccine against Pandemic Influenza H1N1.

    Gwon, Yong-Dae; Kim, Sehyun; Cho, Yeondong; Heo, Yoonki; Cho, Hansam; Park, Kihoon; Lee, Hee-Jung; Choi, Jiwon; Poo, Haryoung; Kim, Young Bong

    2016-01-01

    An outbreak of influenza H1N1 in 2009, representing the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century, was transmitted to over a million individuals and claimed 18,449 lives. The current status in many countries is to prepare influenza vaccine using cell-based or egg-based killed vaccine. However, traditional influenza vaccine platforms have several limitations. To overcome these limitations, many researchers have tried various approaches to develop alternative production platforms. One of the alternative approach, we reported the efficacy of influenza HA vaccination using a baculoviral DNA vaccine (AcHERV-HA). However, the immune response elicited by the AcHERV-HA vaccine, which only targets the HA antigen, was lower than that of the commercial killed vaccine. To overcome the limitations of this previous vaccine, we constructed a human endogenous retrovirus (HERV) envelope-coated, baculovirus-based, virus-like-particle (VLP)-forming DNA vaccine (termed AcHERV-VLP) against pandemic influenza A/California/04/2009 (pH1N1). BALB/c mice immunized with AcHERV-VLP (1×107 FFU AcHERV-VLP, i.m.) and compared with mice immunized with the killed vaccine or mice immunized with AcHERV-HA. As a result, AcHERV-VLP immunization produced a greater humoral immune response and exhibited neutralizing activity with an intrasubgroup H1 strain (PR8), elicited neutralizing antibody production, a high level of interferon-γ secretion in splenocytes, and diminished virus shedding in the lung after challenge with a lethal dose of influenza virus. In conclusion, VLP-forming baculovirus DNA vaccine could be a potential vaccine candidate capable of efficiently delivering DNA to the vaccinee and VLP forming DNA eliciting stronger immunogenicity than egg-based killed vaccines. PMID:27149064

  10. Immunogenicity of Virus Like Particle Forming Baculoviral DNA Vaccine against Pandemic Influenza H1N1.

    Yong-Dae Gwon

    Full Text Available An outbreak of influenza H1N1 in 2009, representing the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century, was transmitted to over a million individuals and claimed 18,449 lives. The current status in many countries is to prepare influenza vaccine using cell-based or egg-based killed vaccine. However, traditional influenza vaccine platforms have several limitations. To overcome these limitations, many researchers have tried various approaches to develop alternative production platforms. One of the alternative approach, we reported the efficacy of influenza HA vaccination using a baculoviral DNA vaccine (AcHERV-HA. However, the immune response elicited by the AcHERV-HA vaccine, which only targets the HA antigen, was lower than that of the commercial killed vaccine. To overcome the limitations of this previous vaccine, we constructed a human endogenous retrovirus (HERV envelope-coated, baculovirus-based, virus-like-particle (VLP-forming DNA vaccine (termed AcHERV-VLP against pandemic influenza A/California/04/2009 (pH1N1. BALB/c mice immunized with AcHERV-VLP (1×107 FFU AcHERV-VLP, i.m. and compared with mice immunized with the killed vaccine or mice immunized with AcHERV-HA. As a result, AcHERV-VLP immunization produced a greater humoral immune response and exhibited neutralizing activity with an intrasubgroup H1 strain (PR8, elicited neutralizing antibody production, a high level of interferon-γ secretion in splenocytes, and diminished virus shedding in the lung after challenge with a lethal dose of influenza virus. In conclusion, VLP-forming baculovirus DNA vaccine could be a potential vaccine candidate capable of efficiently delivering DNA to the vaccinee and VLP forming DNA eliciting stronger immunogenicity than egg-based killed vaccines.

  11. Deployable laboratory response to influenza pandemic; PCR assay field trials and comparison with reference methods.

    Timothy J J Inglis

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The influenza A/H1N1/09 pandemic spread quickly during the Southern Hemisphere winter in 2009 and reached epidemic proportions within weeks of the official WHO alert. Vulnerable population groups included indigenous Australians and remote northern population centres visited by international travellers. At the height of the Australian epidemic a large number of troops converged on a training area in northern Australia for an international exercise, raising concerns about their potential exposure to the emerging influenza threat before, during and immediately after their arrival in the area. Influenza A/H1N1/09 became the dominant seasonal variant and returned to Australia during the Southern winter the following year. METHODS: A duplex nucleic acid amplification assay was developed within weeks of the first WHO influenza pandemic alert, demonstrated in northwestern Australia shortly afterwards and deployed as part of the pathology support for a field hospital during a military exercise during the initial epidemic surge in June 2009. RESULTS: The nucleic acid amplification assay was twice as sensitive as a point of care influenza immunoassay, as specific but a little less sensitive than the reference laboratory nucleic acid amplification assay. Repetition of the field assay with blinded clinical samples obtained during the 2010 winter influenza season demonstrated a 91.7% congruence with the reference laboratory method. CONCLUSIONS: Rapid in-house development of a deployable epidemic influenza assay allowed a flexible laboratory response, effective targeting of limited disease control resources in an austere military environment, and provided the public health laboratory service with a set of verification tools for resource-limited settings. The assay method was suitable for rapid deployment in time for the 2010 Northern winter.

  12. Natural T Cell–mediated Protection against Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza. Results of the Flu Watch Cohort Study

    Hayward, A. C.; Wang, L.; Goonetilleke, N.; Fragaszy, E. B.; Bermingham, A.; Copas, A; Dukes, O.; Millett, E. R.; Nazareth, I; Nguyen-Van-Tam, J. S.; Watson, J M; M. Zambon; Johnson, A. M.; McMichael, A.J.; Flu Watch Group

    2015-01-01

    Rationale: A high proportion of influenza infections are asymptomatic. Animal and human challenge studies and observational studies suggest T cells protect against disease among those infected, but the impact of T-cell immunity at the population level is unknown. / Objectives: To investigate whether naturally preexisting T-cell responses targeting highly conserved internal influenza proteins could provide cross-protective immunity against pandemic and seasonal influenza. / Methods: We quantif...

  13. Swedish nursing and medical students' high vaccination adherence during the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic 2009: insights for pandemic preparedness.

    Faresjö, Tomas; Arvidsson, Lina; Boberg, Pontus; Hagert, Britt; Gursky, Elin A; Timpka, Toomas

    2012-03-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze Swedish health science student decision-making regarding vaccination against pandemic influenza during a national mass vaccination campaign. A questionnaire was distributed to 430 students during the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in 2009. The data from medical and nursing students were compared and a multiple logistic regression model was applied to identify items independently associated with the decision to be vaccinated. The overall survey response rate was 90%. More medical (93.2%) than nursing students (84.8%) reported that they had received the vaccine (p perception that benefits can outweigh possible side effects was significantly (p students on objective risk communication. It should be taken into account that the pandemic information provided by authorities to the general public also affects health care students. PMID:22066650

  14. One versus two doses: What is the best use of vaccine in an influenza pandemic?

    Laura Matrajt

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Avian influenza A (H7N9, emerged in China in April 2013, sparking fears of a new, highly pathogenic, influenza pandemic. In addition, avian influenza A (H5N1 continues to circulate and remains a threat. Currently, influenza H7N9 vaccines are being tested to be stockpiled along with H5N1 vaccines. These vaccines require two doses, 21 days apart, for maximal protection. We developed a mathematical model to evaluate two possible strategies for allocating limited vaccine supplies: a one-dose strategy, where a larger number of people are vaccinated with a single dose, or a two-dose strategy, where half as many people are vaccinated with two doses. We prove that there is a threshold in the level of protection obtained after the first dose, below which vaccinating with two doses results in a lower illness attack rate than with the one-dose strategy; but above the threshold, the one-dose strategy would be better. For reactive vaccination, we show that the optimal use of vaccine depends on several parameters, with the most important one being the level of protection obtained after the first dose. We describe how these vaccine dosing strategies can be integrated into effective pandemic control plans.

  15. Pandemic 2009 Influenza A (H1N1 Infection in Children

    Taner Özgür

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The aim of this study is to share our experience of sixty-eight pediatric hospitalizations associated with influenza-like illness and pneumonia between November, 2009 and December, 2009.Materials and Methods: Clinical signs and symptoms, laboratory and radiological results, length of stay in hospital and intensive care unit, treatments and complications were compared in laboratory confirmed pandemic influenza A positive and negative cases.Results: There was no significant difference in gender distribution between the two groups. The number of positive cases in patients over 5 years of age were significantly higher than the same age group in negative patients (p=0.004. There were underlying health conditions in 78.8% of the positive cases and in 68.8% of the negative cases (p=0.57. The incidence of diarrhea in positive group was significantly higher than in the negative group (p=0.02. Low immunization rates of the seasonal influenza vaccine were remarkable in each group. There was no significant difference in vaccination rates between the two groups (p=0.99.Conclusions: The severity of the disease remained similar in patients with positive and negative groups. In both groups, the high ratio of those having an underlying disease was noteworthy. (Journal of Current Pediatrics 2011; 9: 53-9Key words: Pandemic 2009 influenza A, childhood, pneumonia

  16. Prevalence of influenza-like illness and seasonal and pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccination coverage among workers--United States, 2009-10 influenza season.

    Luckhaupt, Sara E; Calvert, Geoffrey M; Li, Jia; Sweeney, Marie; Santibanez, Tammy A

    2014-03-14

    During an influenza pandemic, information about the industry and occupation (I&O) of persons likely to be infected with influenza virus is important to guide key policy decisions regarding vaccine prioritization and exposure-control measures. Health-care personnel (HCP) might have increased opportunity for exposure to influenza infection, and they have been prioritized for influenza vaccination because of their own risk and the risk that infected HCP pose to patients. To identify other groups of workers that might be at increased risk for pandemic influenza infection, influenza-like illness (ILI) and vaccination coverage data from the 2009 National H1N1 Flu Survey (NHFS), which was conducted during October 2009 through June 2010, were analyzed. In a representative sample of 28,710 employed adults, 5.5% reported ILI symptoms in the month before the interview, and 23.7% received the 2009 pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza vaccine. Among employed adults, the highest prevalence of ILI was reported by those employed in the industry groups "Real estate and rental and leasing" (10.5%) and "Accommodation and food services" (10.2%), and in the occupation groups "Food preparation and serving related" (11.0%) and "Community and social services" (8.3%). Both seasonal influenza and pH1N1 vaccination coverage were relatively low in all of these groups of workers. Adults not in the labor force (i.e., homemakers, students, retired persons, and persons unable to work) had ILI prevalence and pH1N1 vaccination coverage similar to those found in all employed adults combined; in contrast, ILI prevalence was higher and pH1N1 vaccination coverage was lower among unemployed adults (i.e., those looking for work). These results suggest that adults employed in certain industries and occupations might have increased risk for influenza infection, and that the majority of these workers did not receive seasonal or pH1N1 influenza vaccine. Unemployed adults might also be considered a high risk group

  17. Influenza Stigma during the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic

    Earnshaw, Valerie A.; Quinn, Diane M.

    2013-01-01

    The current study examines the extent to which H1N1 was stigmatized at the height of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in the U.S. and explores the role that H1N1 stigma played in people’s desire for physical distance from others with H1N1. H1N1 was the most stigmatized disease, with participants endorsing greater prejudice towards people with H1N1 than people with cancer or HIV/AIDS. Further, H1N1 stigma partially mediated the relationship between participants’ perceptions that H1N1 was threatening and...

  18. Combination strategies for pandemic influenza response - a systematic review of mathematical modeling studies

    Lee Vernon J

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Individual strategies in pandemic preparedness plans may not reduce the impact of an influenza pandemic. Methods We searched modeling publications through PubMed and associated references from 1990 to 30 September 2009. Inclusion criteria were modeling papers quantifying the effectiveness of combination strategies, both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical. Results Nineteen modeling papers on combination strategies were selected. Four studies examined combination strategies on a global scale, 14 on single countries, and one on a small community. Stochastic individual-based modeling was used in nine studies, stochastic meta-population modeling in five, and deterministic compartmental modeling in another five. As part of combination strategies, vaccination was explored in eight studies, antiviral prophylaxis and/or treatment in 16, area or household quarantine in eight, case isolation in six, social distancing measures in 10 and air travel restriction in six studies. Two studies suggested a high probability of successful influenza epicenter containment with combination strategies under favorable conditions. During a pandemic, combination strategies delayed spread, reduced overall number of cases, and delayed and reduced peak attack rate more than individual strategies. Combination strategies remained effective at high reproductive numbers compared with single strategy. Global cooperative strategies, including redistribution of antiviral drugs, were effective in reducing the global impact and attack rates of pandemic influenza. Conclusion Combination strategies increase the effectiveness of individual strategies. They include pharmaceutical (antiviral agents, antibiotics and vaccines and non-pharmaceutical interventions (case isolation, quarantine, personal hygiene measures, social distancing and travel restriction. Local epidemiological and modeling studies are needed to validate efficacy and feasibility.

  19. Cloned defective interfering influenza virus protects ferrets from pandemic 2009 influenza A virus and allows protective immunity to be established.

    Nigel J Dimmock

    Full Text Available Influenza A viruses are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the human population, causing epidemics in the winter, and occasional worldwide pandemics. In addition there are periodic outbreaks in domestic poultry, horses, pigs, dogs, and cats. Infections of domestic birds can be fatal for the birds and their human contacts. Control in man operates through vaccines and antivirals, but both have their limitations. In the search for an alternative treatment we have focussed on defective interfering (DI influenza A virus. Such a DI virus is superficially indistinguishable from a normal virus but has a large deletion in one of the eight RNAs that make up the viral genome. Antiviral activity resides in the deleted RNA. We have cloned one such highly active DI RNA derived from segment 1 (244 DI virus and shown earlier that intranasal administration protects mice from lethal disease caused by a number of different influenza A viruses. A more cogent model of human influenza is the ferret. Here we found that intranasal treatment with a single dose of 2 or 0.2 µg 244 RNA delivered as A/PR/8/34 virus particles protected ferrets from disease caused by pandemic virus A/California/04/09 (A/Cal; H1N1. Specifically, 244 DI virus significantly reduced fever, weight loss, respiratory symptoms, and infectious load. 244 DI RNA, the active principle, was amplified in nasal washes following infection with A/Cal, consistent with its amelioration of clinical disease. Animals that were treated with 244 DI RNA cleared infectious and DI viruses without delay. Despite the attenuation of infection and disease by DI virus, ferrets formed high levels of A/Cal-specific serum haemagglutination-inhibiting antibodies and were solidly immune to rechallenge with A/Cal. Together with earlier data from mouse studies, we conclude that 244 DI virus is a highly effective antiviral with activity potentially against all influenza A subtypes.

  20. Vaccination rates for pandemic influenza among pregnant women: An early observation from Chennai, South India

    Emmanuel Bhaskar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: World Health organization considers pregnancy as an important risk factor for severe illness due to pandemic influenza and recommends better vaccination coverage for them. Aims: This study was initiated to observe the vaccination rates among pregnant women in Chennai during 2 months following the availability of influenza vaccine in the region. Settings and Design: An urban community-based setting. Questionnaire-based observational study design. Materials and Methods: Pregnant women residing in Chennai selected by simple random sampling formed the study population. The study was conducted from 15 th to 30 th November 2010. Each pregnant woman was interviewed using a uniform questionnaire. Statistical Analysis Used: Characteristics between vaccinated and unvaccinated participants were compared using the Chi-square test or the Fisher exact test for categorical variables and Student′s t-test or Mann-Whitney U test for continuous variables. Results: 140 pregnant women were interviewed during the study period. The mean age of study participants was 25 years (range 21-35 years. 55% were less than 26 years of age and 65% were home makers. 32% had no basic school education. Of the 29 women with co-morbidities, 15 had gestational diabetes, 13 hypertension, 7 pre-eclampsia, and 7 had bronchial asthma. Fifty-eight had anemia diagnosed earlier or during current pregnancy. 32 (22.8% were given advice to get vaccinated for pandemic influenza of which 18 (12.8% received the vaccine. Conclusions: Observations on vaccination rates for pandemic influenza among pregnant women in Chennai, 2 months after the initiation of vaccination program is not encouraging.

  1. Small islands and pandemic influenza: Potential benefits and limitations of travel volume reduction as a border control measure

    Wilson Nick

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Some island nations have explicit components of their influenza pandemic plans for providing travel warnings and restricting incoming travellers. But the potential value of such restrictions has not been quantified. Methods We developed a probabilistic model and used parameters from a published model (i.e., InfluSim and travel data from Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs. Results The results indicate that of the 17 PICTs with travel data, only six would be likely to escape a major pandemic with a viral strain of relatively low contagiousness (i.e., for R0 = 1.5 even when imposing very tight travel volume reductions of 99% throughout the course of the pandemic. For a more contagious viral strain (R0 = 2.25 only five PICTs would have a probability of over 50% to escape. The total number of travellers during the pandemic must not exceed 115 (for R0 = 3.0 or 380 (for R0 = 1.5 if a PICT aims to keep the probability of pandemic arrival below 50%. Conclusion These results suggest that relatively few island nations could successfully rely on intensive travel volume restrictions alone to avoid the arrival of pandemic influenza (or subsequent waves. Therefore most island nations may need to plan for multiple additional interventions (e.g., screening and quarantine to raise the probability of remaining pandemic free or achieving substantial delay in pandemic arrival.

  2. Using a Dynamic Model to Consider Optimal Antiviral Stockpile Size in the Face of Pandemic Influenza Uncertainty.

    Amy L Greer

    Full Text Available The Canadian National Antiviral Stockpile (NAS contains treatment for 17.5% of Canadians. This assumes no concurrent intervention strategies and no wastage due to non-influenza respiratory infections. A dynamic model can provide a mechanism to consider complex scenarios to support decisions regarding the optimal NAS size under uncertainty.We developed a dynamic model for pandemic influenza in Canada that is structured by age and risk to calculate the demand for antivirals to treat persons with pandemic influenza under a wide-range of scenarios that incorporated transmission dynamics, disease severity, and intervention strategies. The anticipated per capita number of acute respiratory infections due to viruses other than influenza was estimated for the full pandemic period from surveys based on criteria to identify potential respiratory infections.Our results demonstrate that up to two thirds of the population could develop respiratory symptoms as a result of infection with a pandemic strain. In the case of perfect antiviral allocation, up to 39.8% of the population could request antiviral treatment. As transmission dynamics, severity and timing of the emergence of a novel influenza strain are unknown, the sensitivity analysis produced considerable variation in potential demand (median: 11%, IQR: 2-21%. If the next pandemic strain emerges in late spring or summer and a vaccine is available before the anticipated fall wave, the median prediction was reduced to 6% and IQR to 0.7-14%. Under the strategy of offering empirical treatment to all patients with influenza like symptoms who present for care, demand could increase to between 65 and 144%.The demand for antivirals during a pandemic is uncertain. Unless an accurate, timely and cost-effective test is available to identify influenza cases, demand for antivirals from persons infected with other respiratory viruses will be substantial and have a significant impact on the NAS.

  3. Using a Dynamic Model to Consider Optimal Antiviral Stockpile Size in the Face of Pandemic Influenza Uncertainty

    Greer, Amy L.; Schanzer, Dena

    2013-01-01

    Background The Canadian National Antiviral Stockpile (NAS) contains treatment for 17.5% of Canadians. This assumes no concurrent intervention strategies and no wastage due to non-influenza respiratory infections. A dynamic model can provide a mechanism to consider complex scenarios to support decisions regarding the optimal NAS size under uncertainty. Methods We developed a dynamic model for pandemic influenza in Canada that is structured by age and risk to calculate the demand for antivirals to treat persons with pandemic influenza under a wide-range of scenarios that incorporated transmission dynamics, disease severity, and intervention strategies. The anticipated per capita number of acute respiratory infections due to viruses other than influenza was estimated for the full pandemic period from surveys based on criteria to identify potential respiratory infections. Results Our results demonstrate that up to two thirds of the population could develop respiratory symptoms as a result of infection with a pandemic strain. In the case of perfect antiviral allocation, up to 39.8% of the population could request antiviral treatment. As transmission dynamics, severity and timing of the emergence of a novel influenza strain are unknown, the sensitivity analysis produced considerable variation in potential demand (median: 11%, IQR: 2–21%). If the next pandemic strain emerges in late spring or summer and a vaccine is available before the anticipated fall wave, the median prediction was reduced to 6% and IQR to 0.7–14%. Under the strategy of offering empirical treatment to all patients with influenza like symptoms who present for care, demand could increase to between 65 and 144%. Conclusions The demand for antivirals during a pandemic is uncertain. Unless an accurate, timely and cost-effective test is available to identify influenza cases, demand for antivirals from persons infected with other respiratory viruses will be substantial and have a significant impact on the

  4. Knowledge and attitudes of university students toward pandemic influenza: a cross-sectional study from Turkey

    Hayran Osman

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During an influenza pandemic, higher education institutions with large populations of young adults can become serious outbreak centers. Since outbreak management is essential to disease control, we aimed to examine university students' knowledge of and attitudes toward the pandemic influenza A/H1N1 and vaccination and other preventive measures. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted among 402 first year university students at Yeditepe University in Istanbul, Turkey between 1st and 30th of November 2009. Data regarding socio-demographic characteristics of the students, perceptions, level of knowledge and attitudes toward influenza pandemic and prevention measures were collected by means of a self-administered questionnaire. The questionnaire was distributed by the students affiliated with SANITAS, a university club of students in health related sciences. Results 25.1% (101/402 of the study group perceived their personal risk of influenza as "high", while 40.5% (163/402 perceived it as "moderate", 20.6% (107/402 viewed it as "low" and 7.7% (31/402 indicated that it was "unknown". The risk perception of males was significantly lower than that of females (p = 0.004 and the risk perception among the students of health sciences was significantly lower than that of students of other sciences (p = 0.037. Within the study group, 72.1% (290/402 indicated that their main information source regarding H1N1 was the mass media. Health sciences students tended to rely more on the internet as an information source than other students (p = 0.015. The vast majority (92.8%; 373/402 of those interviewed indicated that they would not be vaccinated. The major concerns regarding vaccination had to do with the safety and side effects of the vaccine. Most of the participants (343/402, 85.3% were carrying out one of prevention measures and the vast majority believed that hand washing, face mask and quarantina were effective measures for

  5. Differences in pandemic influenza vaccination policies for pregnant women in Europe

    Marnoch Gordon J

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An important component of the policy to deal with the H1N1 pandemic in 2009 was to develop and implement vaccination. Since pregnant women were found to be at particular risk of severe morbidity and mortality, the World Health Organization and the European Centers for Disease Control advised vaccinating pregnant women, regardless of trimester of pregnancy. This study reports a survey of vaccination policies for pregnant women in European countries. Methods Questionnaires were sent to European competent authorities of 27 countries via the European Medicines Agency and to leaders of registries of European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies in 21 countries. Results Replies were received for 24 out of 32 European countries of which 20 had an official pandemic vaccination policy. These 20 countries all had a policy targeting pregnant women. For two of the four countries without official pandemic vaccination policies, some vaccination of pregnant women took place. In 12 out of 20 countries the policy was to vaccinate only second and third trimester pregnant women and in 8 out of 20 countries the policy was to vaccinate pregnant women regardless of trimester of pregnancy. Seven different vaccines were used for pregnant women, of which four contained adjuvants. Few countries had mechanisms to monitor the number of vaccinations given specifically to pregnant women over time. Vaccination uptake varied. Conclusions Differences in pandemic vaccination policy and practice might relate to variation in perception of vaccine efficacy and safety, operational issues related to vaccine manufacturing and procurement, and vaccination campaign systems. Increased monitoring of pandemic influenza vaccine coverage of pregnant women is recommended to enable evaluation of the vaccine safety in pregnancy and pandemic vaccination campaign effectiveness.

  6. Synthetic generation of influenza vaccine viruses for rapid response to pandemics.

    Dormitzer, Philip R; Suphaphiphat, Pirada; Gibson, Daniel G; Wentworth, David E; Stockwell, Timothy B; Algire, Mikkel A; Alperovich, Nina; Barro, Mario; Brown, David M; Craig, Stewart; Dattilo, Brian M; Denisova, Evgeniya A; De Souza, Ivna; Eickmann, Markus; Dugan, Vivien G; Ferrari, Annette; Gomila, Raul C; Han, Liqun; Judge, Casey; Mane, Sarthak; Matrosovich, Mikhail; Merryman, Chuck; Palladino, Giuseppe; Palmer, Gene A; Spencer, Terika; Strecker, Thomas; Trusheim, Heidi; Uhlendorff, Jennifer; Wen, Yingxia; Yee, Anthony C; Zaveri, Jayshree; Zhou, Bin; Becker, Stephan; Donabedian, Armen; Mason, Peter W; Glass, John I; Rappuoli, Rino; Venter, J Craig

    2013-05-15

    During the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, vaccines for the virus became available in large quantities only after human infections peaked. To accelerate vaccine availability for future pandemics, we developed a synthetic approach that very rapidly generated vaccine viruses from sequence data. Beginning with hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) gene sequences, we combined an enzymatic, cell-free gene assembly technique with enzymatic error correction to allow rapid, accurate gene synthesis. We then used these synthetic HA and NA genes to transfect Madin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cells that were qualified for vaccine manufacture with viral RNA expression constructs encoding HA and NA and plasmid DNAs encoding viral backbone genes. Viruses for use in vaccines were rescued from these MDCK cells. We performed this rescue with improved vaccine virus backbones, increasing the yield of the essential vaccine antigen, HA. Generation of synthetic vaccine seeds, together with more efficient vaccine release assays, would accelerate responses to influenza pandemics through a system of instantaneous electronic data exchange followed by real-time, geographically dispersed vaccine production. PMID:23677594

  7. Structural Characterization of the Hemagglutinin Receptor Specificity from the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic

    Xu, Rui; McBride, Ryan; Nycholat, Corwin M.; Paulson, James C.; Wilson, Ian A. (Scripps)

    2012-02-13

    Influenza virus hemagglutinin (HA) is the viral envelope protein that mediates viral attachment to host cells and elicits membrane fusion. The HA receptor-binding specificity is a key determinant for the host range and transmissibility of influenza viruses. In human pandemics of the 20th century, the HA normally has acquired specificity for human-like receptors before widespread infection. Crystal structures of the H1 HA from the 2009 human pandemic (A/California/04/2009 [CA04]) in complex with human and avian receptor analogs reveal conserved recognition of the terminal sialic acid of the glycan ligands. However, favorable interactions beyond the sialic acid are found only for {alpha}2-6-linked glycans and are mediated by Asp190 and Asp225, which hydrogen bond with Gal-2 and GlcNAc-3. For {alpha}2-3-linked glycan receptors, no specific interactions beyond the terminal sialic acid are observed. Our structural and glycan microarray analyses, in the context of other high-resolution HA structures with {alpha}2-6- and {alpha}2-3-linked glycans, now elucidate the structural basis of receptor-binding specificity for H1 HAs in human and avian viruses and provide a structural explanation for the preference for {alpha}2-6 siaylated glycan receptors for the 2009 pandemic swine flu virus.

  8. Age-specific mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic: unravelling the mystery of high young adult mortality.

    Alain Gagnon

    Full Text Available The worldwide spread of a novel influenza A (H1N1 virus in 2009 showed that influenza remains a significant health threat, even for individuals in the prime of life. This paper focuses on the unusually high young adult mortality observed during the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918. Using historical records from Canada and the U.S., we report a peak of mortality at the exact age of 28 during the pandemic and argue that this increased mortality resulted from an early life exposure to influenza during the previous Russian flu pandemic of 1889-90. We posit that in specific instances, development of immunological memory to an influenza virus strain in early life may lead to a dysregulated immune response to antigenically novel strains encountered in later life, thereby increasing the risk of death. Exposure during critical periods of development could also create holes in the T cell repertoire and impair fetal maturation in general, thereby increasing mortality from infectious diseases later in life. Knowledge of the age-pattern of susceptibility to mortality from influenza could improve crisis management during future influenza pandemics.

  9. Hospital triage system for adult patients using an influenza-like illness scoring system during the 2009 pandemic--Mexico.

    Eduardo Rodriguez-Noriega

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Pandemic influenza A (H1N1 virus emerged during 2009. To help clinicians triage adults with acute respiratory illness, a scoring system for influenza-like illness (ILI was implemented at Hospital Civil de Guadalajara, Mexico. METHODS: A medical history, laboratory and radiology results were collected on emergency room (ER patients with acute respiratory illness to calculate an ILI-score. Patients were evaluated for admission by their ILI-score and clinicians' assessment of risk for developing complications. Nasal and throat swabs were collected from intermediate and high-risk patients for influenza testing by RT-PCR. The disposition and ILI-score of those oseltamivir-treated versus untreated, clinical characteristics of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1 patients versus test-negative patients were compared by Pearson's Chi(2, Fisher's Exact, and Wilcoxon rank-sum tests. RESULTS: Of 1840 ER patients, 230 were initially hospitalized (mean ILI-score = 15, and the rest were discharged, including 286 ambulatory patients given oseltamivir (median ILI-score = 11, and 1324 untreated (median ILI-score = 5. Fourteen (1% untreated patients returned, and 3 were hospitalized on oseltamivir (median ILI-score = 19. Of 371 patients tested by RT-PCR, 104 (28% had pandemic influenza and 42 (11% had seasonal influenza A detected. Twenty (91% of 22 imaged hospitalized pandemic influenza patients had bilateral infiltrates compared to 23 (38% of 61 imaged hospital test-negative patients (p<0.001. One patient with confirmed pandemic influenza presented 6 days after symptom onset, required mechanical ventilation, and died. CONCLUSIONS: The triaging system that used an ILI-score complimented clinicians' judgment of who needed oseltamivir and inpatient care and helped hospital staff manage a surge in demand for services.

  10. Key transmission parameters of an institutional outbreak during the 1918 influenza pandemic estimated by mathematical modelling

    Nelson Peter

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Aim To estimate the key transmission parameters associated with an outbreak of pandemic influenza in an institutional setting (New Zealand 1918. Methods Historical morbidity and mortality data were obtained from the report of the medical officer for a large military camp. A susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered epidemiological model was solved numerically to find a range of best-fit estimates for key epidemic parameters and an incidence curve. Mortality data were subsequently modelled by performing a convolution of incidence distribution with a best-fit incidence-mortality lag distribution. Results Basic reproduction number (R0 values for three possible scenarios ranged between 1.3, and 3.1, and corresponding average latent period and infectious period estimates ranged between 0.7 and 1.3 days, and 0.2 and 0.3 days respectively. The mean and median best-estimate incidence-mortality lag periods were 6.9 and 6.6 days respectively. This delay is consistent with secondary bacterial pneumonia being a relatively important cause of death in this predominantly young male population. Conclusion These R0 estimates are broadly consistent with others made for the 1918 influenza pandemic and are not particularly large relative to some other infectious diseases. This finding suggests that if a novel influenza strain of similar virulence emerged then it could potentially be controlled through the prompt use of major public health measures.